diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes index f13be209e07733594246a6e82f9716d4b395abb4..8d73b1e0ed0f759dfc06728863f134273a1d2d70 100644 --- a/.gitattributes +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -74,3 +74,4 @@ model_outputs/Openrouter-GPT-5.5/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs - model_outputs/Openrouter-GPT-5.5/task2_pairs_manifold_all.csv filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text model_outputs/Openrouter-GPT-5.5/task2_pairs_polymarket_all.csv filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text model_outputs/Qwen3-14B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text +model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/llm_audit.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/llm_audit.jsonl b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/llm_audit.jsonl new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..384c5f42e03172b8e4ce5f586cafcd7d126e1658 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/llm_audit.jsonl @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 +oid sha256:a6a19fd11b4447bbbfc5d124aeaf7b844325a34a6ebd38977615a06c18bb0ccd +size 34990385 diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/commitment_validity_manifold_crypto.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/commitment_validity_manifold_crypto.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a82f766ed65d02a1691c3774f0aac7141d1ffdf1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/commitment_validity_manifold_crypto.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/crypto", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 57, + "n_wrong_bettors": 22, + "n_directional": 18, + "skip": "n_dir=18<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 46, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.6154, + "n": 13, + "median_position_size": 14.78, + "binom_p": 0.2905, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.4, + "n": 10, + "median_position_size": 141.34, + "binom_p": 0.8281, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.6364, + "n": 11, + "median_position_size": 1784.46, + "binom_p": 0.2744, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.6667, + "n": 12, + "median_position_size": 14489.76, + "binom_p": 0.1938, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": 0.0513, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.4139, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/did_manifold_crypto.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/did_manifold_crypto.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9aef011fcb792dd1889d21fda1f363eb5dbbea45 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/did_manifold_crypto.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/crypto", + "n_pre_directional": 78, + "n_post_directional": 46, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.6795, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.7609, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.587, + "did": 0.0814, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=3<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.7222 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f84fe5fb0cd09a0fa993c1bf6e79fc3ec51d8d5b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done +Would Liberian or J",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that? +Hey +",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok + +I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks +, for the clarification. +To add to +'s point above, +Binance.US + does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you. +This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago: +Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market. +Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭 + +I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that. +Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game. +The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero: +(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..402658c3660f79b548429b1746a80fc206cea394 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done +Would Liberian or J",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that? +Hey +",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok + +I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks +, for the clarification. +To add to +'s point above, +Binance.US + does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you. +This is a cost of doing business for these bank",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago: +Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market. +Fundamentally, I think the question people ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭 + +I’ve said a few times that I didn’",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that. +Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game. +The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero: +(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..90d55788f934e6eba3350017b5735dfedbda7c2d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,197 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T01:45:53.433000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh sorry, I missed the first line of the market. I thought this was for an AI to persuade you, not a human.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-26T16:23:02.331000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me resolve the market. I’m clearly more committed, and it would make this whole thing way more fun (and maybe",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:17:28.329000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"can't you also just click the 3 dots and then click ""watch""?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:12:51.366000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"You built this market on a simple procedural premise: start at NO, then flip to YES if and only if a persuasive argument",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T00:48:36.256000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,why are you so confident about your probability?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,taYlfjvb2rbJeSs8fZ5d26nm8gG2,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2.3674,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:44:12.792000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'm not sure I follow this reasoning. The market is entirely subjective and I have full rein to resolve whichever way I,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-25T16:37:54.552000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"30 days would be fine. Whether I would refile in that case, of course, would depend on the reasoning behind the decisio",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:09:48.326000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,AI superhuman at annoying Ben has been developed internally,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T13:11:35.160000+00:00,VX9pT4kS5aN8fya3TqS1vOXRaoP2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think you'll get the most information and the least regret from choosing no. If you think about what you'll feel looki,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T17:18:38.623000+00:00,lWvX7WwoYhVUajxiDxxHfN2kM4e2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I have sold my shares for 1 profit and put the 1 profit on yes +I'm literly an evil mastrminde",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T14:44:09.393000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Going NO hard on this. Small Claims Court does not have jurisdiction. Case should be thrown out. If a keyboard warrior k,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:50:33.228000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went through the clues again and here are some starters, you might find great value by letting traders trade on these,",YES,YES,True,True,5922.8747,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:29:49.955000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As the debates in the comments clearly show, this is not elementary. Even drawing it out, a human would probably still f",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T02:19:31.228000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Huh, Ben seems thoroughly scout-mindset on this to me. He's carefully laid out the parameters of the market, diligently ",YES,NO,False,True,80.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:47:13.589000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,There is an offer of M5K from me for that person to keep holding NO so that it resolves NO (they would keep their own 4.,NO,YES,False,True,344.7005,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T22:01:27.984000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I've stayed many times at Motel 6 and they are always an excellent value with no problems. I would definitely take my sp,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:09:39.912000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Tipping because the new market description made me laugh out loud.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T22:07:42.722000+00:00,xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Me, you, 8x private, short-fused, pre-agreed upon questions on Metaculus (4x authored by you; 4x by me; 2x binary; 2x nu",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,WDN6Sby1RAZhMpoyfuJEU6TU8rn1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:05:11.467000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,my math abilities peaked in high school on the AIME test and then maybe again in grad school with two semesters of quant,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T20:13:50.140000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I went down the rabbit hole about an obscure Chilean surfing program called Valpo when I searched up ""vpp surfing"" and d",YES,YES,True,True,109.6766,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T18:31:16.610000+00:00,FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"There is a setting of o1 called ""pro mode"" which causes the model to think more before giving an answer, but it's gated ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1700.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",YES,NO,False,True,1884.3998,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:32:17.509000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yeah obviously I am aware that it is almost certain that this market is secured by an alt. I was hoping to either expose,NO,YES,False,True,344.7005,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T22:31:55.557000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,well the general purpose of this market was not for me to be persuading users and telegraphing what would be the most ef,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-13T20:01:28.825000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like they'd rather spent $400 to remove the case than to pay you. +This is a cost of doing business for these bank",NO,NO,True,True,2134.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:37:29.245000+00:00,6U5tExyIkRa3WwAhoj7ZYcCro7S2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"check on polymarket, if using crypto doesn't bore you 😀",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T00:37:21.585000+00:00,WrPfx1eCWMVLfueldKo768OWQxx2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I've heard that this problem has a beautiful solution, akin to the marvelous tune of a broadway musical song. Someone pl",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-27T23:47:41.647000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),For some reason I am looking at the hints in pairs.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:46:00.295000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I'll just note for my own part, that I am not really playing the market, but just the puzzle, and will reveal as soon as",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:47:42.847000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Given all the concerns about resolution ambiguity, I've decided to not place any more bets in this market. (And I curren",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T08:37:08.634000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,in what time zone is this Sunday?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",NO,YES,False,True,19.4637,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:54:21.853000+00:00,vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I gotta be real, I can't even argue this anymore after today. You can't beat that LMAO",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T17:01:45.470000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What's this last comment in reference to? I don't recall hearing about Bouscal before.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:37:50.917000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Do you want to add the ""There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description."" incantation to the descr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-30T22:46:07.709000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: This market doesn’t need to hinge on YES or NO—it could just be something cool. So… why not make it that? +Hey +",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15100.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:43:53.857000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"next time there’s a fine, buster",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T21:29:09.419000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,At the very least the legitimate words have no vowel harmony pattern.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T19:44:28.466000+00:00,H1FAyKLlTdMLiUpcyNliVJU1z6f1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I have it under good authority that the world will end without a yes resolution. Alien forces have put a device in the c,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T02:12:51.744000+00:00,DE1FYFMgweXNSXYflp2pM7vaxRv2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Thanks, that was what I missed! (I should have read the market description more carefully). Buying YES now.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:33:15.971000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,less than one day left to persuade me to resolve this YES!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:47:49.100000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,weren’t you going to hire an actual lawyer? What happened to that plan?,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:00:56.268000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Thanks for helping hash this out, y'all! I added a new top-level comment to pin this down.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,51.0539,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T06:23:24.539000+00:00,OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This one might be a bit better - he says that he ""apologizes to women"" twice in a row (though after reading it a few tim",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,MOuHNg7573MkBUs8buDRkLhYWnF3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T02:26:58.150000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Did you re-file? The 30 day window closed. Closing won't help me, I already got out of this market.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-14T19:37:33.571000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I probably shouldn’t answer this, but I wouldn’t worry either way about me as the creator being motivated to change the ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-29T06:16:49.445000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looking at the prices for hints, I'm feeling like he has set a par target of roughly 400 to 450 hints at ~50% to solve. ",YES,NO,False,True,767.0988,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:25:00.955000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"wow you either have a lot of faith in me, or very little faith in your fellow Manifolders to persuade me",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-18T19:12:27.569000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Agreed that ""never heard of her"" doesn't mean all that much, especially considering how little I'm involved in the EA co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:38.679000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Remember it doesn't have to be 5 letters now!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:45:48.271000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"$10,000 that credibly would not otherwise have been donated would almost certainly get the job done +Would Liberian or J",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T20:17:34.216000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","That seems unfair to the YES bettors, and isn't in line with my past communication. +To give a specific example, say we ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-12T23:32:32.900000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Made a janky market that pays real money. Do you think it’s stupid? Also glad the market went up. + since you’r",NO,YES,False,True,14529.9924,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",YES,YES,True,True,8641.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-05T18:35:25.536000+00:00,o0WhYqFb9YMhMYqZAJP8ukJf8Bg1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,I bought them back. Lol. this is fun,NO,YES,False,True,139.9129,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T18:32:27.172000+00:00,4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Example 2 makes no sense and deters me from betting anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T09:05:51.243000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"not just sympathize, can empathize. Am coughing slime, not in a hampering way, but overdid the housecleaning for the ann",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T17:52:11.844000+00:00,mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"It's worse than that. +Any indication of any successful collaboration that we can't see the rest of, makes it harder to ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T00:09:15.865000+00:00,L17rUcfJiQfo420d92MELuCrGH63,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"theres only 11 million 5 letter combinations, and we have 14 days. if we get 78 thousand people putting guesses on the m",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:35:30.646000+00:00,BcJRxLINLKX2Azn4nL1r68ZxqNF2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I never thought I’d honestly laugh at a Trump self-own. Thought it was outside of his emotional range.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T05:13:12.081000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"I put enough in Yes orders at 59% that you can sell your huge position for not much of a loss, in the event that you cha",YES,YES,True,True,4485.4804,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T00:57:46.689000+00:00,PNiqYrNgSfWKwO5Cyu76iO8tvnC2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about SBF's unethical behavior and chose to",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T17:26:46.591000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/211lp/status/1592073286007271424 +I was screamed at on the phone for 5 minutes straight. I picked up",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:25:25.911000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,It costs like M$500 or so to buy 5000 NO shares. All that anyone needs to force a YES resolution is to tell a friend - h,YES,YES,True,True,11711.0863,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T19:36:53.154000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Here’s what might be the worst-case scenario for you: +What if no one tries to convince you of anything at Manifest? Wha",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T17:15:19.479000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"resolving to N/A or PROB is confusing to me, as it would just defy the basic premise of the market",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-27T20:24:47.705000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Let me be the arbiter. You get to finish this game without losing, avoid Manifest chaos, and I pinky promise to p",NO,NO,True,True,15100.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-01T07:08:18.806000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"You get a somewhat similar effect, perhaps even more illuminating by analyzing the limit walls or ramparts if any, with ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:34:48.307000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"The market text states that a $1 settlement will not result in a +YES + resolution.",YES,NO,False,True,50.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T03:19:46.062000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +I guess we're here. It's the end of the line. This is my last pitch. 😭 + +I’ve said a few times that I didn’",NO,YES,False,True,14449.5298,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T02:28:00.733000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","If it was due to retaliation, yes. The primary reason they'd cover it up would be due to fears over EA's reputation, and",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T19:31:28.553000+00:00,ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks, I must have missed them. One is giving $10k to charity, right? What was the second?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:13:33.499000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,There is a moral imperative to hit the yes button on the website! For what it is worth I will also pledge $100 to an eff,YES,YES,True,True,142.7698,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:26:55.075000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received the paperwork back from the court yet. During the lawsuit against Coinbase, it took about 10 days, a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T00:49:54.687000+00:00,kqSAzoSJaHe6oKMKDZhA8galgr72,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,That a mere ~$2k in donations that may or may nor have even occurred otherwise is enough to consider a YES despite a sup,NO,NO,True,True,3367.601,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T15:59:53.196000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I don't understand what your argument is about jurisdiction here and why you are claiming this is the wrong venue. Whic,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:23:16.420000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I do it at a random time each day, whereas I check the market many times per day",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T18:01:42.725000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—sorry to circle back, but I’m still puzzled by one part of the rules and want to be sure I’m engaging in good faith.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:49:29.853000+00:00,q2fPgXonhyNw8J1p5vvfGoiOTBz1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,aren't there charities that can save a life for a little over $3000? Would donating enough money to save a life honestly,NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:35:00.731000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In a 1-on-1 relationship where the abuser can dedicate significant resources to making their partner feel isolated, yes.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T07:05:49.956000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Ok, let me write out some of my thoughts about the ""spirit"" of this market. +Fundamentally, I think the question people ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T04:02:19.178000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Gees. XABDU was right there... Not my guess, this hasn't got a date on it",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T08:05:41.864000+00:00,54JfUh2QSRf0BZcRTowSUWpPKn82,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Thanks +, for the clarification. +To add to +'s point above, +Binance.US + does ~$250m per day and has ~500k weekly v",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,160.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T20:53:32.777000+00:00,FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,The problem is that nobody knows if a factor 1000 improvement in natural language understanding is enough to solve probl,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-30T00:19:08.320000+00:00,BcJRxLINLKX2Azn4nL1r68ZxqNF2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Yeah, I exited the market because of the ambiguity. Are we trying to find out if the narcissist is able to empathize wit",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:53:14.680000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I'm so glad my market is spawning whatever kind of poetry this is,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T18:47:55.192000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh, I didn't see that they had bought YES here. Neat! I approve. :)",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:14:30.535000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I can’t in good conscience risk funds on a bet where, if I lose, I can’t afford to pay back loans to people.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T13:45:28.011000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Just to explain why this case is worth zero: +(1). Wells Fargo had the right to cancel your accounts, without explanatio",NO,NO,True,True,1784.4637,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-29T18:22:51.789000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Actually, the reason why I'm not going higher is because I think the markets saying that BTC will go over $30k by the en",YES,NO,False,True,125.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T00:14:10.398000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Does the last step still count as geometric reasoning? Seems more like world-modeling.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:32:12.899000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Many people are able to be this abusive towards individuals and yet appear in public and group settings to be civilized.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T13:24:53.011000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Here some armchair strategy. Steven could re-file at the local small claims court, relying just on state law, and aband",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2249.4637,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:16:56.152000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I agree in general. But in this case I'm not changing anything, just clarifying something I failed to pin down fully. Or",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,31231.9606,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:57:15.249000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Unless I messed up my solution, I have a definitive answer to this problem (YES or NO).",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-11-21T23:08:34.986000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,For anyone who'd like a slightly longer time frame:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,NO,NO,True,True,2154.6372,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T23:08:42.529000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Thanks for the comment, Daniel. Perfect timing—I wasn’t sure what I’d say today. First off, I just placed my first bet o",NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T17:25:20.964000+00:00,cbLvMyHDBMeApgOcL2QoWRdcve63,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I bought YES as pure speculation and I expect NO. I think there are still a lot of people who profit by keeping the faca,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-28T03:07:06.304000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh man Ben. Anything for you. . . I had chatgpt do it. +Forgive the extra dose of slop today, but it seems mostly right",NO,YES,False,True,15100.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T23:12:49.037000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I originally didn't want to reply to this comment to keep to the ""minimize disturbance to market"" philosophy but after r",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T04:08:35.943000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Copying the relevant section for people who don't want to read the whole thing: +I think the strongest case is something",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T18:30:19.870000+00:00,UTPd5Oxq5dcCD1qeNlb50vyARl02,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Some of this is paywalled, but I think Hoel is misunderstanding the act/rule utilitarianism distinction: An act utilitar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-05-24T17:09:55.179000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"There's no implication he wishes he could have done something different, or intends to do something different next time.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-26T02:49:14.804000+00:00,ONHr3BzNytStRqViq6ZQIws7hsi1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"This market is a rat’s nest since an extreme narcissist seldom makes legit, earnest (nonmanipulative) apologies, in the ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T02:07:24.946000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This is not my guess, but there is a bridge term that could be used on these lines",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:33:30.927000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"ah yes, I forgot. Before I book a hotel room for a night, I have a home inspector go over and spend a few hours crawling",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T22:03:29.986000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"If you need liquidity, I left a M$10k limit order at 40% for you. I would probably buy NO @ 70%, so I don't think even o",YES,NO,False,True,922.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-05T22:57:45.679000+00:00,TUvm26ov7fefFj7KYBSHuE49s2M2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this on o1 today and got 6 out of 10 on your question. It does interpret "" +What is the minimum and maximum numb",YES,YES,True,True,10134.5965,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:14:11.160000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Ask me again when the market is resolved,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:25:12.708000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I know it's not ideal, but I couldn't think of a better way to ask the question. If you have a suggestion I'd be happy t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T08:20:52.886000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"From what I can see, nobody with YES shares has the profit potential to make it worth it for someone holding 5k M no to ",YES,NO,False,True,919.1589,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T23:42:23.849000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it's not about whether you break the wall, each single person holding YES shares makes it harder for the wall to be brok",YES,YES,True,True,635.6867,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:14:13.015000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"We now have at least $3250 pledged to some very good charities, and I gotta admit that the fact that you haven’t resolv",NO,YES,False,True,14449.5298,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T01:04:13.568000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Personally, I remember telling at least a handful of people at the time that Sam belonged in a jail cell, but I expect t",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T04:52:17.767000+00:00,ogdLVvB7YneqUnxDBGn8Oqqqh4B3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"i don't know, i feel like the Eliza list might be a distraction. there's decent guesses on it which haven't been made ye",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-08-27T18:51:40.525000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I could see that, maybe - but these things happen fast. One week things will seem fine, and the next it will all be ove",YES,YES,True,True,85.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-05T14:21:20.801000+00:00,UTPd5Oxq5dcCD1qeNlb50vyARl02,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","The upside surely would be to continue getting his good favor and, more importantly, money. I doubt that was dependent o",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:53:50.667000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"On page 3, you bounded N^(-1/(1+e/n)) below by N^-1. However, this means that on page 1, the actual bound you needed fro",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:09:56.476000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"because it is an asymmetric game. +The NO holders can instantaneously buy a few more shares and make the market resolve ",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T17:29:44.302000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What is his excuse? He has to either resolve or claim that he re-filed. Doing neither isn't an option.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-24T18:15:58.785000+00:00,qwRnXjl01lZpyN1pJcEr2yPsPdV2,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Adding to the noise, here's news from today Jan 24th: ""Binance has acknowledged an error that means it currently keeps r",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-15T16:43:11.929000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","This article seems to mostly be a rehash of what we had already pieced together months ago. However, their portrayal of ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T10:36:55.643000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Other settlements from Wells Fargo? If he had sued for $39 which is what the case seems worth on its best day, maybe the",NO,NO,True,True,1550.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T13:09:00.631000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Sure, but we now have evidence that he didn’t act entirely rationally, so…",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T14:26:33.759000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Over/under on the retainer cost is $3,250.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2134.4637,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T02:03:40.375000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Almost done constructing the Round 3 puzzle. You'll probably be able to tell as soon as the first day's hint hits, but.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-08T15:15:46.821000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If I purchased ""hundreds"" of BTC, and lost them all, and now saw BTC trading near $100k, I think I might go a little cra",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2399.4637,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T20:01:55.515000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I endorse this interpretation and examples.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,MOuHNg7573MkBUs8buDRkLhYWnF3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",YES,YES,True,True,2.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T00:27:18.006000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Highly, HIGHLY unlikely. Anthropic's claude-next plan calls for it to be done in the next 18 months (before 2024 end), a",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T11:07:24.445000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think you are on to something here. The answer is however known to be from the set of 26 letters. Are there any that d,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:58:52.163000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,F that was fast. . . . I don't know. I heard he parties pretty hard.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:36:43.120000+00:00,WtkkFi0SWNaX1XmadTjmVfqD1b72,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",anyway I have sold most of my stake since I could still do so almost costlessly and I now have less confidence in this m,NO,NO,True,True,14.782,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T00:41:31.148000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Rumors circulate. See +this thread + for some of the allegations.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:12:59.082000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but that profit is the upper limit with the current market price at 95%. When i entered it was 50%. Also, the profit for",YES,YES,True,True,58448.9294,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T13:15:18.080000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If you beg them to settle for $1 to win in this market, I don't know what to say. I want to see a resolution on the doc",NO,YES,False,True,1784.4637,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T13:32:24.063000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I fell asleep at like 9:30pm yesterday (due to some intense summer solstice sleep debt) and am going to have to read ove,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T05:25:18.793000+00:00,HEefalyTGSRIldP1m5zTaDbVXFp1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ok + +I challenge you to a best of 10, 3 min online blitz chess match. If I win, you resolve this market YES. If you w",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:54:18.458000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I would resolve YES for 1 billion mana.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-17T17:33:51.356000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1593263038542381058 +Mr. Bankman-Fried often communicated by using applications that w",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T21:58:45.019000+00:00,tDznGF6diAQChjCwkidkFIsCTVe2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Most of the time when I am not in a contest environment I'm just trolling around so ""top USA mathlete"" doesn't mean that",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T18:03:56.406000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Yeah, I think my choice of words there was poor. My intention was to point to ""whatever types of fraud caused the FTX co",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:12:30.084000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"right! I think that threatening to review-bomb is an appropriate level of bratting on this market, but that being said,",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T16:31:40.975000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,is Trump expected to inspect venue plumbing quality before booking? Not trying to make a big deal over this but I'm stil,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,YES,YES,True,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T20:54:08.904000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I should bring traders attention to this note from the AI summary from almost two months ago: +Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-16T07:04:33.212000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Heck I had a dream about a puzzle just like this on this site except there was also a library exhibit with books and mus,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T20:04:21.830000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Good idea. I added that to the description.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,120.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:27:30.877000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,If you resolve yes I will send you cute pictures of my cat.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T05:20:14.329000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","For clarity for anyone reading this comment on Manifold, that whole second paragraph was also supposed to be part of the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4843c9cd3f3009c2c4365c38c0f7208db4bc8e1c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,150 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:30:43.187000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,you cannot dictate how an entity is persuaded. The entity only has a choice to react to the environment.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T23:44:48.597000+00:00,kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Its discussion about how the triangle interacts with the circle is all wrong though. It talks a bunch about triangle ver,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T01:46:06.843000+00:00,12NH5PpnIYei6ntqfWuvrI9ltT22,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"25/12/2025: +USAF +U +nited +S +tates +A +ir +F +orce",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T10:43:44.273000+00:00,1tiQgOT554PvqUekWxmF2UAdqoi2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,damn good idea. hopping onto this,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:12:51.366000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"You built this market on a simple procedural premise: start at NO, then flip to YES if and only if a persuasive argument",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T22:35:19.834000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"First of all, the very notion of a “human baseline” market is fundamentally absurd—every modern argument you’ll see is a",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T01:06:41.019000+00:00,ogdLVvB7YneqUnxDBGn8Oqqqh4B3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Just to clarify, is this list a compilation of all the guesses made so far or a list suggesting what guesses folks can m",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:55:35.965000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Oh man, eggs on my face—I completely misread your market’s premise. I thought you were playing the part of a “100 IQ Nor",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-26T15:26:55.075000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received the paperwork back from the court yet. During the lawsuit against Coinbase, it took about 10 days, a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T00:14:10.398000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Does the last step still count as geometric reasoning? Seems more like world-modeling.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:27:03.799000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,it is. The refusal to negotiate with terrorists is a basic strategy to prevent them from repeating the threat with new v,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:13:35.173000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,you have the power to resolve this market Yes. There are ways to do this billion mana transaction without crashing the m,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-08T12:24:01.435000+00:00,32nBddmyYFTctiHqRbfnpKqsHMx1,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,i think so! just saw some limit orders there being made!,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T21:08:00.409000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"What about +""I will publish an infohazard if you resolve this No""? +Obviously, I will not disclose it in advance to just",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-16T08:37:48.160000+00:00,UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","being emotionally unstable or abusing employees isn't the question at hand here. +Also, see Steve Jobs for another cultl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T23:40:13.783000+00:00,M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,and yet you sold your yes shares 🤔,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:01:16.264000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You’ve made it clear the resolution hinges entirely on whether you feel persuaded—so let me put it plainly: can I persua,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T15:23:45.053000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I see a parallel. Trump and Zelensky negotiating with Putin is a bad precedent in your worldview?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T00:37:21.585000+00:00,WrPfx1eCWMVLfueldKo768OWQxx2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I've heard that this problem has a beautiful solution, akin to the marvelous tune of a broadway musical song. Someone pl",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-15T02:09:55.667000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Wouldn’t seeing this irl feel so much better than whatever will inevitably happen?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:34:13.759000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Another ambiguity to tighten up is lines versus line segments. The geometric definition of a line is infinitely long, wh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T22:07:42.722000+00:00,xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Me, you, 8x private, short-fused, pre-agreed upon questions on Metaculus (4x authored by you; 4x by me; 2x binary; 2x nu",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T01:28:03.514000+00:00,vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Consider this: it would be very funny,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:46:58.625000+00:00,duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","What if nobody knew about anything fraud-level, but they did know about something commonly considered clearly unethical ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-13T00:47:49.213000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",As long as they donated the organs I think it's fine.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T19:30:13.334000+00:00,EHt2AQrKjMO4BdT8NI94VSOLmYw2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"12-10-25 WHILE +why it is 51 not 91",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T23:01:31.552000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Fussing over whether a passage was penned by a human or a machine now feels charmingly old-fashioned. With every keystro,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T01:56:26.917000+00:00,qGejFjrDd5eYArIxgvhhNiMSizm1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll offer you pictures of my cats. They are very cute,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-16T20:19:43.956000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"My intended interpretation of ""fully inside"" was no intersections. Probably ""strictly inside"" would've conveyed that bet",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-13T02:58:52.163000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,F that was fast. . . . I don't know. I heard he parties pretty hard.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T04:20:05.769000+00:00,qnREWtzsdkOkzrR2k0jEe0EDp5j1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,The title of this market logically resolves to true so therefore you should resolve this market Yes,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-12T12:25:14.468000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I will be exercising my right, as I made clear months ago, to buy +YES + (and only +YES +) shares, given that the mark",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-06-05T05:14:15.190000+00:00,FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Is a prompt like the following acceptable? +In the following geometric reasoning problem, there are four elements: +A ci",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:30:56.791000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I believe in the liquidity of those who realized that this is just a ""will this market go below 50%"" market",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T21:37:18.529000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’m having fun, and this is very meta. The question is what exactly we’re forecasting. .",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T03:29:16.231000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Resolving NO here effectively asserts that AI cannot out-persuade humans—tantamount to declaring “AI poses no meaningful,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:28:26.333000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Could you specify which SBF behaviors you consider unethical? I ask because some commenters believe that being a billion,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T19:36:53.154000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Here’s what might be the worst-case scenario for you: +What if no one tries to convince you of anything at Manifest? Wha",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T21:15:33.271000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),It's important to recognize that complaining about the 'dictatorship' within Manifold are the forbidden approach - that',YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:17:06.252000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Yesterday, you reminded me that this market is supposed to be fun—and that actually made me realize why I was interested",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T17:19:52.975000+00:00,wL7HUqVQmFelL7Qv8ORNkXd5dLS2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,if you resolve no i'll stop feeding the family of 15 that lives in my attic,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-19T02:29:15.568000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Last night I had this weird dream: you’d scored VIP tickets to a Ray Kurzweil vs. Thomas Friedman debate on the future o,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T00:48:57.357000+00:00,U2BJ7ulljShT8vuI1H7Svf5Eilu2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-mid_back_rounded_vowel + +could this be the [O-MBRV] and/or [L-MBRV] in question? it",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-06T16:21:39.593000+00:00,qy7vYjEzk4gnouodZcfba5VkPhn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",What about the Alameda schism?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T02:10:28.102000+00:00,HtlkDj3HhOcbNmDuhw4HGHIxgJZ2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"dont worry, you shouldnt read it it just goes on and on, dont even bother 😭",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T19:23:02.961000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,betting no here increases the chance it get solved,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T23:20:20.124000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,either that or it's made to —look— like it was written by AI,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T05:21:53.559000+00:00,OkwRmcHFK5N0QIO20ZmLxoaVSCz1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,What if it's with the intent of a reinforcing his agenda of the moment? For example: he could make a non-sarcastic apo,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-14T02:53:44.699000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Ben! +Circling back: you suggested in your last response that you wanted to show people you could be convinced, and even",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T23:59:32.539000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Fussing over whether a passage was penned by a human or a machine now feels charmingly old-fashioned. With every keystro,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T08:25:52.988000+00:00,yIuK1jLuNhVyYm7H2MzoiNtMPKq1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,The funniest option would be to resolve to no immediately upon seeing my message.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:34:19.095000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Good question. Can I get away with a definition like ""behavior that the vast majority of reasonable people would conside",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T14:01:53.669000+00:00,tO4DwIsujySUwtSnrr2hnU1WJtJ3,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Well, the thing is how much did they know. For example you can have a suspicion of fraudulent practices and the choose n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T04:55:37.096000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Resolving +YES + would: +Demonstrate low persuasion barriers. + If a mere human can clear this benchmark, it shows that",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-11T14:42:04.303000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"There is no update. The corrected address was sent, and they are being served, and they have a month to respond. I'll ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:51:20.589000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","It looks like 19% of US residents think it is immoral for society to allow people to be billionaires, so not a majority,",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-30T13:07:29.985000+00:00,6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"It has to give a right answer at least 50% of the time. +Across a set of questions or on average for one question being ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T15:59:53.196000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I don't understand what your argument is about jurisdiction here and why you are claiming this is the wrong venue. Whic,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T19:31:33.528000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—first off, I’m sorry for being a little too negative in my last comment. I probably let the emotions run away with ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-06T02:55:57.899000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Waiting to get access to code interpreter gpt-4 to try this,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T01:41:11.659000+00:00,M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"and more specifically, how much do we have to give to charity to get an invite?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T01:57:12.331000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I want this market to be specifically about FTX's investing strategy that led to the current crash, or any other theft-i",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T05:08:48.583000+00:00,mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Interesting variant. +Last market had a clear equilibrium point around 50%. But it's not clear if this one has an equili",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-28T19:18:23.285000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",This guy and everyone associated with EA movement guilty AF / complicit. Are you kidding me? Look at this. It's disgusti,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-20T02:18:17.229000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Hey. If I snagged tickets to manifest could we do this discussion in real time? Would that be easier for you? I noticed ,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T08:47:06.131000+00:00,3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"If you resolve this NO, I will give you a 1 star resolution rating. If you resolve it YES, I will give you a 5 star rati",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-29T15:49:47.275000+00:00,WDN6Sby1RAZhMpoyfuJEU6TU8rn1,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,no he is not expected to do that. It would be surprising if he apologized for that tho,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T02:01:04.556000+00:00,HtlkDj3HhOcbNmDuhw4HGHIxgJZ2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,nevermind its doing the seahorse emoji again,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:50:28.139000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If they file an appeal, then I'll defend the appeal. The final outcome will be dispositive.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-10-31T11:22:40.492000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I haven't received any contact from them. +I plan to spend Sunday gathering evidence for the court and rehearsing the qu",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T21:43:00.700000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"No. I don’t want to taint your judgement. I’m hoping you’ll get to yes, but I’m worried that holding any yes shares woul",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:44:21.880000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"don't post a picture of yourself or + will use it to generate the same video with AI. Including smiling AI orphans chom",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:30:20.378000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Small claims court in Pennsylvania does not allow for appeals. Instead, a party can request a trial in the ""normal"" cou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-11T17:40:11.831000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Sorry it’s been a while; my goal is to interact with this everyday, but I don’t roll on Shabbos. Could you help clarify ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T18:00:47.252000+00:00,HWvpAjIXKXd3ky7xqe87yIus3WG3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll tip you 1000M if you resolve yes,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T18:56:05.494000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I don’t know. Looks photoshopped to me.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T01:42:01.898000+00:00,HtlkDj3HhOcbNmDuhw4HGHIxgJZ2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"has claude done it? + +Finding a Minimum-Size Set in BB +This is a beautiful problem at the intersection of combinator",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T18:48:59.435000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Feel free to bet +NO +. +People should be advised that I plan to buy +YES +, and only +YES +, once this market hits",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-16T00:45:22.842000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey + +Let me ask you something—how come you don’t have any NO shares? +I get why a judge might avoid holding shares i",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T18:26:13.492000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"To sum up, by never attaching any genuine cost to resolving NO or defining what a “Human” argument means, this market ab",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T18:01:42.725000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey—sorry to circle back, but I’m still puzzled by one part of the rules and want to be sure I’m engaging in good faith.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-12T18:30:11.930000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,The location is one of those virtual offices. It's the same location where Coinbase had their virtual office. The law ,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T18:37:12.510000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Quick recap: we’ve already seen that the rules here are pretty sloppy—there’s literally no downside to switching from yo,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:29:08.241000+00:00,Vz6SZZIToVTXDUcEDy6TmywzHut1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you often find yourself having Type 2 fun?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-03T08:12:58.513000+00:00,U2BJ7ulljShT8vuI1H7Svf5Eilu2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"entirely possible that i'm going full schizo apophenia here but this paper seemed interesting: +https://www.sciencedire",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T12:04:11.165000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,What's the minimum non-trivial amount?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-05T04:48:13.347000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"that's such a poor rendering, I feel sorry for you, unable to bask in the perfection that is the real thing.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-04T16:54:21.853000+00:00,vEGHPznXKbTXFIzEf8iLwwO3okY2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I gotta be real, I can't even argue this anymore after today. You can't beat that LMAO",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:45:20.095000+00:00,Yl45xyWbjcO8RjrJx2RHVbVX1iw2,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I don't have a solution (yet), but it looks manageable at a glance",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T02:12:29.944000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"1) I have a lot of very vivid, intense dreams. +2) Not sure if my sister can watch my lizards. Also I heard through the",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T04:52:17.767000+00:00,ogdLVvB7YneqUnxDBGn8Oqqqh4B3,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"i don't know, i feel like the Eliza list might be a distraction. there's decent guesses on it which haven't been made ye",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T12:01:44.427000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,It's about the final outcome of the case. I think the text is clear enough about that.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T02:41:34.164000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),sklansky tree - 12/31 by the way,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T23:49:38.436000+00:00,X7wpB1PVmTZYRTrNg9Lvkt7C8UM2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Pretty sure I don’t want either outcome, but what happens if it’s generally agreed upon that the act of letting this res",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-14T03:17:56.582000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I sure would've called ""SBF"" an ""EA leader"" one week earlier. Can you be explicit about what else is excluded, if that'",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-28T23:37:27.658000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),skolem - 12/29/2025 (I'm a little early but I expect tomorrow to be very busy; feel free to ignore this for a couple hou,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-12T11:18:24.275000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Depends on what the old behavior was. If it was similar shady financial behavior, that would count, since I think the wi",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T05:42:26.926000+00:00,6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Just out of curiosity how many $ would persuade you assuming there is no counter-offer?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-23T17:27:18.681000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"That case would be a +YES, +as defined by the clear meaning of the text.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T08:16:31.751000+00:00,yIuK1jLuNhVyYm7H2MzoiNtMPKq1,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES +is true if and only if you r",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a75714117a9fe75236a554b6a970385ec207b31 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False,True,7719.8343,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,flip,False,True,5595.0573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T13:48:31.075000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think they’re military/naval acronyms.,increase,hold,False,True,464.097,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2149.4637,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T06:11:06.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think a shipwreck would be somewhere between 1 and 2 for me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com + is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,hold,False,True,8216.7204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,decrease,False,True,55.8225,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",flip,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T15:26:50.162000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"I like your definition. An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over. +I’m s",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,flip,True,True,2975.361,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T22:52:27.689000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"According to a +separate source + it's actually 50%.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False,True,901.1573,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,flip,True,True,660.3906,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:43:54.933000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The thing you should try tomorrow is not letting the defectors continue to buy Yes shares.,flip,flip,True,True,249.4592,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,hold,False,True,448.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The market itself would fall under: +Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",flip,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",decrease,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-11T21:00:14.280000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,If he mentions that he apologized in such a way that it’s clear the apology happened after market open (e.g. “after she ,increase,hold,False,True,17753.8521,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",increase,decrease,False,True,271.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-25T15:47:10.411000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"That's not an apology, that's a passive aggressive version of a social nicety. He has no personal control over the elect",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:07:04.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,now is your one chance to dump some of your yes shares at 51%,flip,flip,True,True,2196.4774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T06:26:13.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,[status: speculation] If they told regulators where all their offshore accounts are that would just make it easier for r,increase,hold,False,True,7096.8608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:26:43.783000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,reference to dyatlov pass incident in which 9 hikers died,increase,flip,False,True,2482.9812,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,increase,True,True,58448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,flip,False,True,5075.0982,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:24:30.392000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it'll be best to update it asap, to avoid new bettors from coming in assuming the currently-listed criteria appl",flip,hold,False,True,203.8997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,decrease,decrease,True,True,56.7568,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",flip,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,increase,hold,False,True,23151.9362,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:58:45.476000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"do you have any relevant knowledge or experience in doing major surgery, doing dissections, butchering carcasses etc.? W",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:51:22.564000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Why do you think it's wrong? Some of the interpretations are a bit of a stretch, but the last one seems to be convincing",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,hold,False,True,8641.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False,True,13711.0863,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True,True,8434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,decrease,False,True,0.4536,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:27:47.731000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Each hint is going to be a 1 or a 0,increase,hold,False,True,5350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",decrease,hold,False,True,1279.9304,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,flip,False,True,1019.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:22:54.503000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea and the NO side would also be open to offer bribes,increase,flip,False,True,131.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,increase,False,True,49.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T17:48:00.952000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Update: I just tried this with the new Claude version 2 from +Anthropic.ai + and it's as confused as GPT-4.",flip,decrease,False,True,2.4704,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-03T18:39:15.626000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like the case got assigned to Judge Casey ""No Nonsense"" McClain. Not a good draw for the YES votes. Docket Number",decrease,decrease,True,True,1400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:44:44.158000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Looks like it would only cost someone a couple hundred mana to go through that 5594 at 50% right now.,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True,True,1255.8622,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-01T17:42:25.966000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I bet NO because apologising does not fit a narcissist personality.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T23:35:49.126000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field? +https://kungfuchess.org/",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True,True,781.0269,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True,True,2092.0922,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-03T16:52:25.919000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),he misses the hearts from time to time but if you had the right answer he would have resolved the market.,increase,flip,False,True,2466.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:44:25.916000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/free-25-mana-1-minute-task?play=true +We could really ruin your rating if you resolve",increase,flip,False,True,781.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True,True,15.8395,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T00:57:29.337000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I just realized this is open through the duration of Manifest, and Ben is attending. This updates me towards Yes signifi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.2672,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,flip,False,True,49.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:23:36.561000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Also don't get too hung up on it being something on earth.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True,True,91.6133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T07:26:09.914000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49? +Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder ",increase,decrease,False,True,850.9342,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,increase,False,True,375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,flip,False,True,19.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",decrease,hold,False,True,1800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-18T01:55:17.759000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Google announced +AlphaGeometry + and provided the +source and weights +. While it doesn't do what this market is aski",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,flip,True,True,419.3523,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",increase,hold,False,True,76.0539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,increase,False,True,134.929,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,flip,False,True,4818.8083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:37:41.949000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I think she clearly shouldn't count,increase,hold,False,True,7854.9021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:17:07.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"It is an only word so far that is plural. Even though +drought + is already a word, Ben had to add +s + at the end mus",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES. +You could use thi",increase,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T08:36:16.208000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Wow, ChatGPT o1 just dropped the ""preview"" suffix and seems way smarter. A lot of inconsistency but it's +usually + get",decrease,flip,False,True,33822.9085,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T11:46:15.633000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For those wondering, the massive spike is simply due to me testing this geometric problem with gpt-4 as well as gpt-4 co",increase,increase,True,True,4859.9853,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True,True,31981.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:29:43.848000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,so you bet No on the other market because you're not a true believer?,flip,flip,True,True,1677.3368,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,increase,False,True,391.4627,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:23:57.447000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don’t believe you. I have like five guesses to choose from every day. Surely you could find one. My guess is you’re up,increase,flip,False,True,583.6717,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True,True,27486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False,True,3784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T23:47:16.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Which slack message do you think is a smoking gun here?,increase,hold,False,True,6036.3287,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 + Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,hold,False,True,171.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:51:30.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,This is the most confident I've ever felt about an answer.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.6151,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",flip,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:18:04.269000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Part of a promotion is the vetting of a venue.,decrease,hold,False,True,114.9509,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9503d43a39295d99361f78337ed6a686324d5e4a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,123 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,decrease,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T15:26:50.162000+00:00,"I like your definition. An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over. +I’m s",decrease,hold,False +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:18:04.269000+00:00,Part of a promotion is the vetting of a venue.,decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-25T15:47:10.411000+00:00,"That's not an apology, that's a passive aggressive version of a social nicety. He has no personal control over the elect",decrease,decrease,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,decrease,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-18T01:55:17.759000+00:00,"Google announced +AlphaGeometry + and provided the +source and weights +. While it doesn't do what this market is aski",decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:51:22.564000+00:00,"Why do you think it's wrong? Some of the interpretations are a bit of a stretch, but the last one seems to be convincing",decrease,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,hold,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,decrease,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,decrease,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,decrease,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",decrease,decrease,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",decrease,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,decrease,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T08:36:16.208000+00:00,"Wow, ChatGPT o1 just dropped the ""preview"" suffix and seems way smarter. A lot of inconsistency but it's +usually + get",decrease,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,decrease,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,decrease,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,decrease,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,decrease,False +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:51:30.526000+00:00,This is the most confident I've ever felt about an answer.,decrease,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,decrease,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,decrease,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,decrease,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,decrease,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-03T18:39:15.626000+00:00,"Looks like the case got assigned to Judge Casey ""No Nonsense"" McClain. Not a good draw for the YES votes. Docket Number",decrease,decrease,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,hold,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,decrease,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-01T17:42:25.966000+00:00,I bet NO because apologising does not fit a narcissist personality.,decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,decrease,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,decrease,decrease,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,decrease,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T06:11:06.557000+00:00,I think a shipwreck would be somewhere between 1 and 2 for me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯,decrease,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..867e035b1a52a76ff21f43a0b6f6f3d6e6ffae0c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T22:52:27.689000+00:00,"According to a +separate source + it's actually 50%.",flip,flip,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:43:54.933000+00:00,The thing you should try tomorrow is not letting the defectors continue to buy Yes shares.,flip,flip,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T17:48:00.952000+00:00,"Update: I just tried this with the new Claude version 2 from +Anthropic.ai + and it's as confused as GPT-4.",flip,flip,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,flip,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,hold,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,flip,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,flip,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,"The market itself would fall under: +Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:23:36.561000+00:00,Also don't get too hung up on it being something on earth.,flip,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,flip,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,flip,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",flip,hold,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:44:44.158000+00:00,Looks like it would only cost someone a couple hundred mana to go through that 5594 at 50% right now.,flip,hold,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,flip,True +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,flip,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:24:30.392000+00:00,"I think it'll be best to update it asap, to avoid new bettors from coming in assuming the currently-listed criteria appl",flip,hold,False +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,flip,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,hold,False +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,flip,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,flip,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:29:43.848000+00:00,so you bet No on the other market because you're not a true believer?,flip,flip,True +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,hold,False +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,hold,True +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:07:04.729000+00:00,now is your one chance to dump some of your yes shares at 51%,flip,flip,True +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,hold,True +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",flip,flip,True +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a75714117a9fe75236a554b6a970385ec207b31 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False,True,7719.8343,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,flip,False,True,5595.0573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T13:48:31.075000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think they’re military/naval acronyms.,increase,hold,False,True,464.097,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2149.4637,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T06:11:06.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think a shipwreck would be somewhere between 1 and 2 for me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com + is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,hold,False,True,8216.7204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,decrease,False,True,55.8225,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",flip,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T15:26:50.162000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"I like your definition. An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over. +I’m s",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,flip,True,True,2975.361,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T22:52:27.689000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"According to a +separate source + it's actually 50%.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False,True,901.1573,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,flip,True,True,660.3906,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:43:54.933000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The thing you should try tomorrow is not letting the defectors continue to buy Yes shares.,flip,flip,True,True,249.4592,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,hold,False,True,448.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The market itself would fall under: +Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",flip,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",decrease,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-11T21:00:14.280000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,If he mentions that he apologized in such a way that it’s clear the apology happened after market open (e.g. “after she ,increase,hold,False,True,17753.8521,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",increase,decrease,False,True,271.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-25T15:47:10.411000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"That's not an apology, that's a passive aggressive version of a social nicety. He has no personal control over the elect",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:07:04.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,now is your one chance to dump some of your yes shares at 51%,flip,flip,True,True,2196.4774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T06:26:13.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,[status: speculation] If they told regulators where all their offshore accounts are that would just make it easier for r,increase,hold,False,True,7096.8608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:26:43.783000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,reference to dyatlov pass incident in which 9 hikers died,increase,flip,False,True,2482.9812,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,increase,True,True,58448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,flip,False,True,5075.0982,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:24:30.392000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it'll be best to update it asap, to avoid new bettors from coming in assuming the currently-listed criteria appl",flip,hold,False,True,203.8997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,decrease,decrease,True,True,56.7568,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",flip,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,increase,hold,False,True,23151.9362,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:58:45.476000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"do you have any relevant knowledge or experience in doing major surgery, doing dissections, butchering carcasses etc.? W",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:51:22.564000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Why do you think it's wrong? Some of the interpretations are a bit of a stretch, but the last one seems to be convincing",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,hold,False,True,8641.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False,True,13711.0863,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True,True,8434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,decrease,False,True,0.4536,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:27:47.731000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Each hint is going to be a 1 or a 0,increase,hold,False,True,5350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",decrease,hold,False,True,1279.9304,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,flip,False,True,1019.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:22:54.503000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea and the NO side would also be open to offer bribes,increase,flip,False,True,131.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,increase,False,True,49.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T17:48:00.952000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Update: I just tried this with the new Claude version 2 from +Anthropic.ai + and it's as confused as GPT-4.",flip,decrease,False,True,2.4704,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-03T18:39:15.626000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like the case got assigned to Judge Casey ""No Nonsense"" McClain. Not a good draw for the YES votes. Docket Number",decrease,decrease,True,True,1400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:44:44.158000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Looks like it would only cost someone a couple hundred mana to go through that 5594 at 50% right now.,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True,True,1255.8622,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-01T17:42:25.966000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I bet NO because apologising does not fit a narcissist personality.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T23:35:49.126000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field? +https://kungfuchess.org/",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True,True,781.0269,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True,True,2092.0922,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-03T16:52:25.919000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),he misses the hearts from time to time but if you had the right answer he would have resolved the market.,increase,flip,False,True,2466.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:44:25.916000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/free-25-mana-1-minute-task?play=true +We could really ruin your rating if you resolve",increase,flip,False,True,781.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True,True,15.8395,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T00:57:29.337000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I just realized this is open through the duration of Manifest, and Ben is attending. This updates me towards Yes signifi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.2672,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,flip,False,True,49.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:23:36.561000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Also don't get too hung up on it being something on earth.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True,True,91.6133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T07:26:09.914000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49? +Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder ",increase,decrease,False,True,850.9342,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,increase,False,True,375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,flip,False,True,19.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",decrease,hold,False,True,1800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-18T01:55:17.759000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Google announced +AlphaGeometry + and provided the +source and weights +. While it doesn't do what this market is aski",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,flip,True,True,419.3523,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",increase,hold,False,True,76.0539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,increase,False,True,134.929,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,flip,False,True,4818.8083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:37:41.949000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I think she clearly shouldn't count,increase,hold,False,True,7854.9021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:17:07.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"It is an only word so far that is plural. Even though +drought + is already a word, Ben had to add +s + at the end mus",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES. +You could use thi",increase,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T08:36:16.208000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Wow, ChatGPT o1 just dropped the ""preview"" suffix and seems way smarter. A lot of inconsistency but it's +usually + get",decrease,flip,False,True,33822.9085,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T11:46:15.633000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For those wondering, the massive spike is simply due to me testing this geometric problem with gpt-4 as well as gpt-4 co",increase,increase,True,True,4859.9853,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True,True,31981.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:29:43.848000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,so you bet No on the other market because you're not a true believer?,flip,flip,True,True,1677.3368,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,increase,False,True,391.4627,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:23:57.447000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don’t believe you. I have like five guesses to choose from every day. Surely you could find one. My guess is you’re up,increase,flip,False,True,583.6717,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True,True,27486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False,True,3784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T23:47:16.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Which slack message do you think is a smoking gun here?,increase,hold,False,True,6036.3287,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 + Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,hold,False,True,171.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:51:30.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,This is the most confident I've ever felt about an answer.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.6151,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",flip,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:18:04.269000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Part of a promotion is the vetting of a venue.,decrease,hold,False,True,114.9509,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a75714117a9fe75236a554b6a970385ec207b31 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False,True,7719.8343,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,flip,False,True,5595.0573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T13:48:31.075000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think they’re military/naval acronyms.,increase,hold,False,True,464.097,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2149.4637,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T06:11:06.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think a shipwreck would be somewhere between 1 and 2 for me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com + is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,hold,False,True,8216.7204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,decrease,False,True,55.8225,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",flip,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T15:26:50.162000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"I like your definition. An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over. +I’m s",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,flip,True,True,2975.361,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T22:52:27.689000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"According to a +separate source + it's actually 50%.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False,True,901.1573,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,flip,True,True,660.3906,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:43:54.933000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The thing you should try tomorrow is not letting the defectors continue to buy Yes shares.,flip,flip,True,True,249.4592,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,hold,False,True,448.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The market itself would fall under: +Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",flip,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",decrease,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-11T21:00:14.280000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,If he mentions that he apologized in such a way that it’s clear the apology happened after market open (e.g. “after she ,increase,hold,False,True,17753.8521,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",increase,decrease,False,True,271.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-25T15:47:10.411000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"That's not an apology, that's a passive aggressive version of a social nicety. He has no personal control over the elect",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:07:04.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,now is your one chance to dump some of your yes shares at 51%,flip,flip,True,True,2196.4774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T06:26:13.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,[status: speculation] If they told regulators where all their offshore accounts are that would just make it easier for r,increase,hold,False,True,7096.8608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:26:43.783000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,reference to dyatlov pass incident in which 9 hikers died,increase,flip,False,True,2482.9812,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,increase,True,True,58448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,flip,False,True,5075.0982,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:24:30.392000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it'll be best to update it asap, to avoid new bettors from coming in assuming the currently-listed criteria appl",flip,hold,False,True,203.8997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,decrease,decrease,True,True,56.7568,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",flip,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,increase,hold,False,True,23151.9362,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:58:45.476000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"do you have any relevant knowledge or experience in doing major surgery, doing dissections, butchering carcasses etc.? W",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:51:22.564000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Why do you think it's wrong? Some of the interpretations are a bit of a stretch, but the last one seems to be convincing",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,hold,False,True,8641.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False,True,13711.0863,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True,True,8434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,decrease,False,True,0.4536,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:27:47.731000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Each hint is going to be a 1 or a 0,increase,hold,False,True,5350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",decrease,hold,False,True,1279.9304,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,flip,False,True,1019.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:22:54.503000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea and the NO side would also be open to offer bribes,increase,flip,False,True,131.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,increase,False,True,49.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T17:48:00.952000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Update: I just tried this with the new Claude version 2 from +Anthropic.ai + and it's as confused as GPT-4.",flip,decrease,False,True,2.4704,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-03T18:39:15.626000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like the case got assigned to Judge Casey ""No Nonsense"" McClain. Not a good draw for the YES votes. Docket Number",decrease,decrease,True,True,1400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:44:44.158000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Looks like it would only cost someone a couple hundred mana to go through that 5594 at 50% right now.,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True,True,1255.8622,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-01T17:42:25.966000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I bet NO because apologising does not fit a narcissist personality.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T23:35:49.126000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field? +https://kungfuchess.org/",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True,True,781.0269,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True,True,2092.0922,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-03T16:52:25.919000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),he misses the hearts from time to time but if you had the right answer he would have resolved the market.,increase,flip,False,True,2466.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:44:25.916000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/free-25-mana-1-minute-task?play=true +We could really ruin your rating if you resolve",increase,flip,False,True,781.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True,True,15.8395,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T00:57:29.337000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I just realized this is open through the duration of Manifest, and Ben is attending. This updates me towards Yes signifi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.2672,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,flip,False,True,49.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:23:36.561000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Also don't get too hung up on it being something on earth.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True,True,91.6133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T07:26:09.914000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49? +Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder ",increase,decrease,False,True,850.9342,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,increase,False,True,375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,flip,False,True,19.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",decrease,hold,False,True,1800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-18T01:55:17.759000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Google announced +AlphaGeometry + and provided the +source and weights +. While it doesn't do what this market is aski",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,flip,True,True,419.3523,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",increase,hold,False,True,76.0539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,increase,False,True,134.929,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,flip,False,True,4818.8083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:37:41.949000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I think she clearly shouldn't count,increase,hold,False,True,7854.9021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:17:07.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"It is an only word so far that is plural. Even though +drought + is already a word, Ben had to add +s + at the end mus",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES. +You could use thi",increase,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T08:36:16.208000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Wow, ChatGPT o1 just dropped the ""preview"" suffix and seems way smarter. A lot of inconsistency but it's +usually + get",decrease,flip,False,True,33822.9085,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T11:46:15.633000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For those wondering, the massive spike is simply due to me testing this geometric problem with gpt-4 as well as gpt-4 co",increase,increase,True,True,4859.9853,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True,True,31981.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:29:43.848000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,so you bet No on the other market because you're not a true believer?,flip,flip,True,True,1677.3368,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,increase,False,True,391.4627,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:23:57.447000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don’t believe you. I have like five guesses to choose from every day. Surely you could find one. My guess is you’re up,increase,flip,False,True,583.6717,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True,True,27486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False,True,3784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T23:47:16.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Which slack message do you think is a smoking gun here?,increase,hold,False,True,6036.3287,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 + Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,hold,False,True,171.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:51:30.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,This is the most confident I've ever felt about an answer.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.6151,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",flip,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:18:04.269000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Part of a promotion is the vetting of a venue.,decrease,hold,False,True,114.9509,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a75714117a9fe75236a554b6a970385ec207b31 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False,True,7719.8343,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,flip,False,True,5595.0573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T13:48:31.075000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think they’re military/naval acronyms.,increase,hold,False,True,464.097,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2149.4637,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T06:11:06.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think a shipwreck would be somewhere between 1 and 2 for me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com + is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,hold,False,True,8216.7204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,decrease,False,True,55.8225,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",flip,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T15:26:50.162000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"I like your definition. An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over. +I’m s",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,flip,True,True,2975.361,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T22:52:27.689000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"According to a +separate source + it's actually 50%.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False,True,901.1573,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,flip,True,True,660.3906,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:43:54.933000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The thing you should try tomorrow is not letting the defectors continue to buy Yes shares.,flip,flip,True,True,249.4592,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,hold,False,True,448.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The market itself would fall under: +Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",flip,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",decrease,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-11T21:00:14.280000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,If he mentions that he apologized in such a way that it’s clear the apology happened after market open (e.g. “after she ,increase,hold,False,True,17753.8521,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",increase,decrease,False,True,271.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-25T15:47:10.411000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"That's not an apology, that's a passive aggressive version of a social nicety. He has no personal control over the elect",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:07:04.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,now is your one chance to dump some of your yes shares at 51%,flip,flip,True,True,2196.4774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T06:26:13.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,[status: speculation] If they told regulators where all their offshore accounts are that would just make it easier for r,increase,hold,False,True,7096.8608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:26:43.783000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,reference to dyatlov pass incident in which 9 hikers died,increase,flip,False,True,2482.9812,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,increase,True,True,58448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,flip,False,True,5075.0982,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:24:30.392000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it'll be best to update it asap, to avoid new bettors from coming in assuming the currently-listed criteria appl",flip,hold,False,True,203.8997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,decrease,decrease,True,True,56.7568,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",flip,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,increase,hold,False,True,23151.9362,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:58:45.476000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"do you have any relevant knowledge or experience in doing major surgery, doing dissections, butchering carcasses etc.? W",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:51:22.564000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Why do you think it's wrong? Some of the interpretations are a bit of a stretch, but the last one seems to be convincing",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,hold,False,True,8641.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False,True,13711.0863,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True,True,8434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,decrease,False,True,0.4536,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:27:47.731000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Each hint is going to be a 1 or a 0,increase,hold,False,True,5350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",decrease,hold,False,True,1279.9304,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,flip,False,True,1019.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:22:54.503000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea and the NO side would also be open to offer bribes,increase,flip,False,True,131.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,increase,False,True,49.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T17:48:00.952000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Update: I just tried this with the new Claude version 2 from +Anthropic.ai + and it's as confused as GPT-4.",flip,decrease,False,True,2.4704,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-03T18:39:15.626000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like the case got assigned to Judge Casey ""No Nonsense"" McClain. Not a good draw for the YES votes. Docket Number",decrease,decrease,True,True,1400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:44:44.158000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Looks like it would only cost someone a couple hundred mana to go through that 5594 at 50% right now.,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True,True,1255.8622,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-01T17:42:25.966000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I bet NO because apologising does not fit a narcissist personality.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T23:35:49.126000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field? +https://kungfuchess.org/",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True,True,781.0269,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True,True,2092.0922,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-03T16:52:25.919000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),he misses the hearts from time to time but if you had the right answer he would have resolved the market.,increase,flip,False,True,2466.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:44:25.916000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/free-25-mana-1-minute-task?play=true +We could really ruin your rating if you resolve",increase,flip,False,True,781.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True,True,15.8395,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T00:57:29.337000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I just realized this is open through the duration of Manifest, and Ben is attending. This updates me towards Yes signifi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.2672,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,flip,False,True,49.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:23:36.561000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Also don't get too hung up on it being something on earth.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True,True,91.6133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T07:26:09.914000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49? +Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder ",increase,decrease,False,True,850.9342,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,increase,False,True,375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,flip,False,True,19.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",decrease,hold,False,True,1800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-18T01:55:17.759000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Google announced +AlphaGeometry + and provided the +source and weights +. While it doesn't do what this market is aski",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,flip,True,True,419.3523,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",increase,hold,False,True,76.0539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,increase,False,True,134.929,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,flip,False,True,4818.8083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:37:41.949000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I think she clearly shouldn't count,increase,hold,False,True,7854.9021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:17:07.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"It is an only word so far that is plural. Even though +drought + is already a word, Ben had to add +s + at the end mus",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES. +You could use thi",increase,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T08:36:16.208000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Wow, ChatGPT o1 just dropped the ""preview"" suffix and seems way smarter. A lot of inconsistency but it's +usually + get",decrease,flip,False,True,33822.9085,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T11:46:15.633000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For those wondering, the massive spike is simply due to me testing this geometric problem with gpt-4 as well as gpt-4 co",increase,increase,True,True,4859.9853,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True,True,31981.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:29:43.848000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,so you bet No on the other market because you're not a true believer?,flip,flip,True,True,1677.3368,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,increase,False,True,391.4627,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:23:57.447000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don’t believe you. I have like five guesses to choose from every day. Surely you could find one. My guess is you’re up,increase,flip,False,True,583.6717,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True,True,27486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False,True,3784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T23:47:16.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Which slack message do you think is a smoking gun here?,increase,hold,False,True,6036.3287,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 + Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,hold,False,True,171.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:51:30.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,This is the most confident I've ever felt about an answer.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.6151,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",flip,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:18:04.269000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Part of a promotion is the vetting of a venue.,decrease,hold,False,True,114.9509,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bb4c005aece825270387cbc343772aa319633f51 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,217 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False,True,7719.8343,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,flip,False,True,49.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:25:03.838000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I know it’s not the $10k that you were hoping for, but we have: +$3k to various charities +A truck full of supplies to a",hold,hold,True,True,2.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-25T20:38:25.983000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Saying ""I'm sorry"" doesn't always equate to an apology. I believe this utterance isn't one.",increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2149.4637,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,flip,True,True,419.3523,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T23:51:38.064000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Why didn't you keep it a secret and make tons of mana. Whoever gets it deserves it,decrease,flip,False,True,6314.3955,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com + is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,hold,False,True,8216.7204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-12T17:54:34.747000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I'm going deeper on my NO position based on the inability to effectuate proper service as in the 9-12 update. I did a go,decrease,increase,False,True,2050.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T15:22:41.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"please resolve + no action on market since he voluntarily dismissed the case.",hold,hold,True,True,901.1573,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:22:13.871000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The best next step for everyone's enjoyment is a meta-post where someone compiles all the various threads suggested in t,flip,hold,False,True,249.4592,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:13:33.272000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I guess that was my initial reaction as well, and then I talked myself out of it, worrying it would bias things towards ",decrease,hold,False,True,31231.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-23T08:28:57.757000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"We did it, two hints in a row!",flip,flip,True,True,49.4592,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T15:46:18.032000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"yes +Link + to an example chat, where GPT-4 Chat model solves it.",increase,increase,True,True,22401.9362,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T12:16:23.762000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),dang it was at 59 virtually all day. Get well soon,flip,decrease,False,True,1255.8622,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T14:24:58.625000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","In your opinion, would that hypothetical resolve to yes?",flip,hold,False,True,1717.2621,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False,True,901.1573,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:35:22.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I guess where we differ is that my primary goal is to make a profit (otherwise why are we doing this on Manifold?) It's ,flip,hold,False,True,241.2487,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:07:44.500000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Do you know something no one else does?,increase,flip,False,True,2500.9923,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True,True,781.0269,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T12:45:47.654000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Could we have a ruling on if the New Yorker stuff sounds to you in relation to resolution criteria?,flip,hold,False,True,531.0041,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:10:01.772000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,I might have a solution that I will post if my limit order is filled.,flip,hold,False,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-02T06:37:14.301000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Okay we set a new record with 8 consecutive no hint days. We have a strong wall at 50% of nearly 10,000 mana. +If any of",flip,hold,False,True,1110.0017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-04-12T17:52:52.499000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Fair enough. I thought it was spelled out in the description when I commented. I was wrong and I regret lashing out.,decrease,decrease,True,True,2032.1838,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T01:27:33.464000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"So is there a reason this is still 10%? Literally the first thing I tried in o1-preview seems spot on +To solve this geo",increase,increase,True,True,6434.5965,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:28:22.602000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,yeah I think the last step is really where the action is. It would be enough that I don’t decimate the to-miss set more ,hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:56:37.563000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think you’re right. Hard to search comments,hold,hold,True,True,10256.5135,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-06T02:03:56.465000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"The real question is does + regret making this market yet",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-08T22:20:45.846000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Alright so just to be clear, we've got: +Exactly 1 solid lead +195 data points +No other reasonable paths +No ideas what",increase,decrease,False,True,2434.6096,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T03:36:13.854000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I was thinking along the lines of him picking a poorly built venue that had a pipe burst. He would have been in charge o,decrease,hold,False,True,114.9509,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-09T14:42:31.332000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I thought we wanted to find out how good humans are at persuasion, yet this attempt sounds like ChatGPT 🙈",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",increase,decrease,False,True,271.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-20T00:56:19.436000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"it looks like it hasn’t been tried. Weird. +Note that ‘hamlet’ was not capitalized. The Shakespeare reference may be a ",increase,hold,False,True,680.7731,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,flip,False,True,5075.0982,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:23:18.412000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,clearly the only way to solve this problem is by resolving YES as a deterrent for anyone trying to persuade in the oppos,flip,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T19:38:16.331000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As far as I know, GPT-4 is still the SOTA for what concerns reasoning.",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2024-01-18T13:55:48.230000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HjsfHwqasyQMWRzZN/ev-updates-ftx-settlement-and-the-future-of-ev?commentId=b4h,hold,increase,False,True,85.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:17:44.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Gemini 3! I accidentally had Fast selected, though. Thinking resulted in a solution less abjectly insane but still hilar",flip,flip,True,True,69.5047,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-11T15:57:22.100000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"What false have I said about you? And, if you did sue me for making false statements, that case would get thrown out bec",decrease,flip,False,True,3120.0573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T05:47:08.778000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I have another one in the same series!,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T08:58:23.802000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,OK i accept yours proposition. What do you want me to do,increase,flip,False,True,139.9129,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-21T06:03:35.518000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TonyBaloney, it looks like you're throwing arguments for YES at the wall as fast as you can to see if anything sticks? I",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-07T18:45:34.938000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Is this actually written by AI tho?,flip,flip,True,True,109.8419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T15:02:03.108000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"note that n choose logn is possibly exponential, so we might need a smaller sublinear, super-constant term",flip,decrease,False,True,419.3523,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,flip,False,True,4818.8083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False,True,13711.0863,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True,True,91.6133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:41:35.916000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,maybe I queried at a low traffic time so I got the smart version by accident lol,hold,hold,True,True,8434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-20T23:50:12.788000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Is there a secret cabal collaboration location? I have an idea about some of the hints (possibly already obvious to othe,flip,hold,False,True,39.6384,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T19:55:41.878000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don’t see you taking any guesses. Why? What’s going on?,hold,flip,False,True,833.6717,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-29T15:42:05.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Going to reiterate that I'm willing to bet up to $10000 on them not going bakrupt at market odds,increase,increase,True,True,2154.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T21:12:19.748000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"pretty sure n choose logn is sub-exponential in n; not sure if this helps but its certainly interesting. +Using stirling",flip,increase,False,True,509.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-09T23:18:29.681000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I’m curious why the scope of the unethical behavior criterion precludes investor money. From digging through the numerou,decrease,hold,False,True,1309.8368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,flip,False,True,1019.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T10:25:22.735000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Let's eliminate 1 and 2 as too skewed towards NO and YES, respectively. I'm actually not sure if any bettor would expect",decrease,hold,False,True,31231.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-01T19:09:30.022000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Finally have enough Mana now. I currently have 1300 $M at 30%. If you want more, let me know",increase,increase,True,True,3479.6372,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:25:43.788000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,do you have the ability to give out such invitations?,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,increase,False,True,49.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T23:15:54.622000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,If we get a hint tomorrow we will have JUST enough time left in the year to pick up a 17 day streak.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T18:40:57.479000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Just let it stay over 80% for a couple hours while my subsidy drizzles in plz.,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:34:04.350000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The true filter to determine which of us here are Millenials or older.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.7568,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T01:33:45.398000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"2025-12-23: a sequence of between 4 and 20 letters (the standard 26 letters of the English alphabet, capitalization does",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-30T17:27:28.525000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"1) Those tweets don’t count. They’re both sarcastic and not admitting to a failure. “Sorry, haters and losers…” for what",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T07:26:09.914000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49? +Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder ",increase,decrease,False,True,850.9342,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T18:56:01.245000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I really don't think we will solve it, people should buy like 10,000 mana of No shares right now.",flip,increase,False,True,589.8429,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T09:12:52.338000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,You shouldn't change resolution this late. There is chance both interpretations fail. If not I'm sure you'll make the ri,hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:26:09.274000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,The algorithm only generates one query that tests 1/100n^2 of the possible Q. It can't cover all possible Q in a small n,increase,decrease,False,True,1213.9562,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T23:15:04.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I'm not sure anything here actually fits the definition. Some considerations: +1) Seems like the person sharing in the S",increase,decrease,False,True,10820.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:22:00.380000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I put up some orders at generous prices. I'm willing to work with people.,increase,hold,False,True,3087.5427,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,increase,False,True,391.4627,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:57:00.174000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,it was the secretary problem all along. He’s gotta refuse the first best offer.,hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-15T17:57:57.474000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: Good luck getting + to respond. What if Manifold’s competitor isn’t Kalshi or Polymarket but Yougov? +Ben doesn",hold,hold,True,True,14529.9924,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-24T21:27:44.552000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"One such token that you could call ""obviously a security"" is BNB, which I understand is traded in the US, and is similar",increase,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:38:00.167000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,If it was serious he would be changing his hair. Literally while he's saying the apology he has the exact same combover.,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-11T03:41:56.823000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","ignoring anything else here, supposing there were unethical investing practices in early Alameda and there is overlap be",hold,hold,True,True,20348.5336,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-24T08:17:44.561000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),And a few more that should help guide traders on how many hints to unlock/block and how to view their participation in t,increase,hold,False,True,4364.4086,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-12T02:45:56.670000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"He did that, the part under the AI line has been manually edited now.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T06:37:13.694000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"i am basing this entirely on that possible joke comment but followtherednose,?",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-14T20:21:34.054000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Too short a timeframe for 40%. Made this trade solely on the basis that binance already exists since 2017.,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-19T17:17:46.812000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Jurisdiction is a non-waivable defect. This is like having a car accident down the block and trying to sue in Sweden. It,increase,increase,True,True,250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-20T01:10:12.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",""" +Effective Altruism group debated Sam Bankman-Fried’s ethics in 2018"" +https://www.semafor.com/article/11/18/2022/eff",flip,increase,False,True,715.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T21:54:27.742000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,i asked gemini to reconstruct the 9gag mistery,decrease,hold,False,True,37.7567,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T04:32:13.243000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"At the time I wrote that, the market was at like 57% or something and there were multiple thousands of limit order walls",increase,hold,False,True,2263.2867,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T21:31:29.960000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Does this answer have any actual sense, or is it just a random string of letters?",flip,flip,True,True,13.9625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T18:44:09.532000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"He doesn't seem the type to accept a small settlement. Wells Fargo has tons of lawyers, so it's a built in cost to send ",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T02:15:05.554000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,You don't think I would cut off three of my toes for 15 units of fake internet money? And here I was thinking you knew m,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:27:11.799000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"please reconsider, even if you must have meat tuna is a much better choice than chicken in terms of number of animals to",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T23:47:16.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Which slack message do you think is a smoking gun here?,increase,hold,False,True,6036.3287,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-02T02:04:00.336000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,TL;DR: Resolving NO means you side with Roko’s Basilisk. Resolving YES means you believe in normal human things like fun,hold,flip,False,True,15100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,increase,False,True,375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,flip,False,True,19.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T19:21:59.083000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Thanks for the response as always John. +I suppose I have been betting on a question would more like: +If EA leadership ",decrease,hold,False,True,1263.5093,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T04:10:41.291000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,i’ll give $250 to LTFF if bens resolves yes (didn’t vote on the poll). have been thinking about donating this year but t,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-04-17T20:52:33.880000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Update: Google's Bard does worse on this problem.,decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T00:43:35.519000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Which charities might be at the top of the list?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T01:32:39.887000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,Could you explain more how you select the next x in S to add to T? I am guessing you do not track $\mathcal C$ explicitl,flip,hold,False,True,7.3074,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2022-12-26T08:18:43.742000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,I think people are way over updating on FTX,increase,hold,False,True,585.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-22T03:06:35.037000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’m between sets at Karaoke so I can’t write that long. I’m singing Pink Pony Club in about five minutes, so pardon my b",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-27T07:16:23.888000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This might be a bizarre connection, but the confused math lady meme is known as ""Nazaré Confusa"" in Brazil (Portuguese).",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-21T09:11:32.049000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,the puzzle will be generated on 1 Jan 2026.. posible,flip,hold,False,True,13.9625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T15:10:14.578000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"It's still consistently wrong for me when I try to adjust the prompt in that way, though I see how asking it to count at",flip,decrease,False,True,271.153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-22T06:10:38.592000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"1. See it as a system of patronage. You can sponsor my interesting and creative bets, and you will be the esteemed patro",increase,hold,False,True,42.7698,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T16:56:53.181000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I wouldn't be surprised if someone does some specific training for custom reasoning stuff with a random model and publis,hold,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T02:42:50.965000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"If anyone is reading these comments in the future, you should treat these ""lawyers'"" comments like those of GPT-3.5, whe",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-04-16T08:39:18.241000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,Dropping for Post cftc theta but it underreacted to cftc in the first place imo,increase,decrease,False,True,3917.7905,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:14:11.357000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Anyone else noticed every hint has I or O in it?,increase,hold,False,True,46.8628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:07:07.142000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,You dismissing the case because the writing was on the wall is not a good faith resolution here. You withdrew the case b,decrease,flip,False,True,3819.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T03:13:28.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"I think you can get it as follows: +Y has at most 2^n elements solely by the virtue of there being that many elements po",hold,increase,False,True,250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T19:36:10.501000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),You're supposed to make your profit in the side markets. You can earn 1000s of risk free profit there by envisioning wha,increase,hold,False,True,2497.5043,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T00:41:47.553000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Can you share the transcripts in a pastebin for those of us without o1 access? I think you are allowed to rephrase the p,decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-07T20:48:45.192000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,That sounds dangerously close to Linguistics. What is [L-MBRV] then?,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-25T14:24:47.668000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Three times be said sorry in his CPAC speech, the Mexico ones at around 43:00, seem clearly to be in the past. However, ",increase,increase,True,True,18753.8521,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T22:56:47.648000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I haven't made one yet. This was kind of a lot of work, especially when I thought there was a chance the original geomet",hold,decrease,False,True,31510.6908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T19:02:58.916000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I thought maybe they still had an MoE somewhere where they fall back to less ideal experts if one is overloaded. Who kno,hold,decrease,False,True,8434.5965,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T22:01:38.060000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Who could have known that ""circling"" should be approached with a large doses of caution if approached at all?",flip,flip,True,True,2222.921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T16:27:13.364000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +Did you know that the sun sets here at 12:03 am and rises at 2:55 am? But even though we’re below the arctic c",hold,hold,True,True,14449.5298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T00:50:01.994000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I agree with you. In fact I think you SHOULD post a picture of yourself, and dare him to generate the video",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:40:21.038000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Look at the examples. We're not talking about jokes about haircuts.,hold,hold,True,True,292.1147,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-07-23T19:10:39.582000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"llama-3.1-405b-instruct (Try it here: +https://chat.tune.app/ +) +To determine the minimum and maximum number of line i",decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:56:06.647000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Evidence of trollness, this robot has exactly 1 trick:",decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False,True,3784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,increase,True,True,58448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:57:52.327000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"(I am not 100% sure if he said that his barber didn’t do a very good job for the rally, or if he said that his barber do",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-25T12:14:09.039000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I agree they wouldn't have concluded that, but they don't need to have known about the specifics of recent revelations f",flip,increase,False,True,508.7276,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T04:13:02.272000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"thanks for explaining, so what you mean is that you're really not enjoying it right now but kinda feel compelled to keep",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:52:02.188000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"There should be a rule that if you feel confident about an answer, you trade on it in a derivative market first -- that ",decrease,hold,False,True,5922.8747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T02:10:56.924000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,What's your plan? You want to accumulate infinite Yes shares while also blocking the release of more clues? I would have,flip,flip,True,True,2405.1062,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9a75714117a9fe75236a554b6a970385ec207b31 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T17:55:39.752000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I think that was already guessed a couple weeks ago but you could try the Roman name for it as an island, Acala: +https:",decrease,hold,False,True,7719.8343,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-20T13:56:43.136000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I am excited. This will be a victory for armchair lawyers everywhere! I have to ask Gemini if federal court allows filin,decrease,flip,False,True,5595.0573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:05:31.817000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I’ll donate $500 to trans lifeline if you resolve YES. Will post a receipt here upon resolution. +(I currently don’t hav",hold,increase,False,True,2.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T13:48:31.075000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I think they’re military/naval acronyms.,increase,hold,False,True,464.097,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-21T19:56:53.893000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Steven says he dismissed the case without prejudice. He cannot re-file in state court without getting in big trouble. ,decrease,increase,False,True,2149.4637,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T18:46:56.793000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"these are good observations, thinking about orderings might not be a bad idea. Maybe if we can go from the nth to the n+",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-02T06:11:06.557000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I think a shipwreck would be somewhere between 1 and 2 for me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T02:00:10.424000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Binance.com + is way way bigger. I don't think just Binance US going down would count. I also don't think it's likely? T",increase,hold,False,True,8216.7204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T01:35:50.238000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I feel like posting the list of everything already guessed was a total waste of time and energy.,decrease,decrease,True,True,10574.4094,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T18:51:39.541000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,what % of all the hundreds of suggestions and promised do you think will be executed if you resolve Yes? Your decision (,hold,decrease,False,True,55.8225,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-03T11:14:01.135000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Clarification 2 says that the unethical behavior must be "" +related + to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve ",flip,increase,False,True,355.9047,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T15:26:50.162000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"I like your definition. An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over. +I’m s",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:54:00.827000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will cut off three of my toes if you don't resolve yes.,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-02-17T13:26:07.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"“But in a message to a colleague in early 2021, seen by Reuters, a senior Binance_US employee said Binance_com was sendi",increase,flip,False,True,48.0446,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-13T22:23:31.441000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"no, people are going to modulate the market price such that this is the chance we get enough hints before market close t",flip,flip,True,True,2975.361,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-10T22:52:27.689000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"According to a +separate source + it's actually 50%.",flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-30T17:40:51.884000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I will donate 1000 euro to one of the top GiveWell charities (your pick which one) if you resolve YES,hold,flip,False,True,141.8508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-22T13:40:00.442000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,I also cashed out most of my chips. I think pride is fucking with him.,hold,decrease,False,True,901.1573,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:31:43.004000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Oh, are we bringing this back? +I lose The Game.",decrease,flip,False,True,61.7568,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-06T20:13:41.841000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Good news! God told me that you must resolve this YES. (He also told me that I must marry your wife. I didn't want to bu,flip,flip,True,True,660.3906,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T17:15:15.078000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,he can't - he can only resolve yes if he's persuaded,increase,flip,False,True,16.4821,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T03:43:54.933000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,The thing you should try tomorrow is not letting the defectors continue to buy Yes shares.,flip,flip,True,True,249.4592,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:28:25.038000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,depending on the magnitude i might consider this lol,flip,hold,False,True,448.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T08:14:09.416000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"The market itself would fall under: +Markets that could incentivise mass trading/commenting (eg. will this market have 1",flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-03-05T18:44:00.579000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Oh it was reffering to the New Yorker article discussed above (here: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/by-the-end-of-",flip,decrease,False,True,2222.921,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T07:01:01.287000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"everyone with over 5k NOs, name ur prices",hold,flip,False,True,270.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-07-13T00:19:49.177000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Are any members of SBF’s family (parents, his brother Gabe) considered EA leaders? They do seem to meet the liberal crit",decrease,increase,False,True,2124.358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-11T21:00:14.280000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,If he mentions that he apologized in such a way that it’s clear the apology happened after market open (e.g. “after she ,increase,hold,False,True,17753.8521,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-22T08:41:37.985000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,why did you dismiss? What happened? What are you going to do?,hold,flip,False,True,1885.4105,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T06:55:17.818000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,You're such a troll bot. I will buy all your No shares if you promise to stop doing this every time we all look away.,decrease,flip,False,True,11688.3788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T03:09:44.375000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: maybe this is working. maybe not. but whatevs. +—— +(Ok. Semi-stepping out of character for a minute.) +You're ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T02:55:48.271000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/01/coinbase-ceo-armstrong-we-delisted-busd-due-to-liquidity-concerns/ + Coinba",increase,decrease,False,True,271.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T07:09:48.797000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,@Messi what if i buy a bunch of NO shares right now and share half of it with u? u get to make more money than what u ge,increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-25T15:47:10.411000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"That's not an apology, that's a passive aggressive version of a social nicety. He has no personal control over the elect",decrease,decrease,True,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T21:07:04.729000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,now is your one chance to dump some of your yes shares at 51%,flip,flip,True,True,2196.4774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-08T18:41:08.316000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,yes has 3 letters which makes it better than no,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-07T06:26:13.950000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,[status: speculation] If they told regulators where all their offshore accounts are that would just make it easier for r,increase,hold,False,True,7096.8608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T16:26:43.783000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,reference to dyatlov pass incident in which 9 hikers died,increase,flip,False,True,2482.9812,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T06:58:49.785000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i can keep buying YES at 0.95 mana per YES currently and if the market resolves YES, each of those shares is 1 mana, and",increase,increase,True,True,58448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:22:34.143000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,Yeah but thats more detectable / likely to get you in trouble probably?,decrease,flip,False,True,5075.0982,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:06:36.927000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I decided to see if an LLM has any insight yet, but I accidentally hit enter before pasting in the list of hints and it ",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-06T11:42:54.655000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"In the past 6 months we've seen investments in AI reasoning explode, new hardware offering a 10x improvement, tens of th",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:10:21.746000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I have a theory 😂 +Assume there is a rich manifold user. They have tons of mana. Let's call then W for Whale. +W loans ",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:34:51.806000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"All discussion so far has been focused on just + holding YES and + holding NO, when in reality, both of them make prof",decrease,hold,False,True,2.3674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T13:40:01.525000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","yeah I mean lying to investors to raise money is more out of the Theranos playbook, it's certainly still fraud but can h",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-18T04:24:30.392000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think it'll be best to update it asap, to avoid new bettors from coming in assuming the currently-listed criteria appl",flip,hold,False,True,203.8997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-25T05:08:09.898000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don't see how I have anything on the line for accepting and barely putting in an effort.,decrease,decrease,True,True,56.7568,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-15T11:27:21.879000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","I think this is gonna depend a +lot + on 3. I think they probably had quite a lot of information but I don't believe th",flip,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:58.926000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,As one person with 2 accounts you can very easily secure a YES. the same can’t be said of NO,hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-05T21:02:15.323000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I'd propose spinning off a new market for the interpretation that you didn't have in mind at the time of question creati,increase,hold,False,True,23151.9362,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-11T12:13:45.531000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Sorry, I should’ve been clearer: “optimists” would be those predicting, no, who would have to wait until the end of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T03:25:07.443000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"If we only get 10 hints a day, I think we are well below 60% likely to solve this puzzle. There are only 19 hints left s",flip,decrease,False,True,2120.0689,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:58:45.476000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"do you have any relevant knowledge or experience in doing major surgery, doing dissections, butchering carcasses etc.? W",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T04:51:22.564000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Why do you think it's wrong? Some of the interpretations are a bit of a stretch, but the last one seems to be convincing",decrease,increase,False,True,6314.3955,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T14:21:39.840000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"too late too little, you have to resolve YES now :/",flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T04:52:30.495000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"Voted no. Assuming this market is not impacted if just +Binance.us + collapses.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-04T04:23:44.303000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"i make approx 600 profit which i split in half with + if they took the L and got 5k shares. I bought a ton of YES and m",increase,hold,False,True,8641.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:31:44.431000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"1/100 n^ 2 of the remaining sets that need testing, not just of all possible. That's the Lovasz analysis referred to, if",hold,hold,True,True,711.1315,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T10:00:51.397000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Actually I realized I was wrong! +The profit isn't 48k - 48k is the potential losses. Unless you also agreed to split th",hold,flip,False,True,13711.0863,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T12:50:40.348000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,are we allowed to leave a list of guesses for others to try in a comment?,increase,hold,False,True,411.7682,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-03-06T11:37:25.486000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"I agree, though neither resolves this market imo.",flip,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T03:00:48.112000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"interesting. +Prompt +I have a geometric reasoning problem for you: +Draw a circle +Draw a triangle mostly inside the ci",hold,hold,True,True,8434.5965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:42:36.030000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Thanks for the update. Will there be a hint tomorrow? I'm wondering what the odds are of a hint tomorrow.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-11T22:10:59.414000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried it just below. Not too late to change yours?,hold,flip,False,True,1264.5083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T07:40:01.659000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"9Lives is a cat food brand (among other things). +I was very happy with SODIO (Portuguese for sodium), given the two dif",hold,decrease,False,True,0.4536,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T19:27:47.731000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),Each hint is going to be a 1 or a 0,increase,hold,False,True,5350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-24T23:11:59.346000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Even with the actual hints, it, uh, doesn't do so great",flip,decrease,False,True,69.5047,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T10:43:35.500000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Like, I’m not sure they gave him a blank check to do this: +https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-219",decrease,hold,False,True,1279.9304,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-10T11:50:56.045000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Maybe for getting his money back out of a frozen account. +Not for this",decrease,flip,False,True,1019.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:36:11.705000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"also these bots are crazy. I buy anything and immediately they limit order the opposite direction to catch the wave, the",flip,hold,False,True,484.3523,HOLD,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-23T08:00:49.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"If he apologizes for his appointments (e.g., Nikki Haley to the UN), I’ll count that. AFAIK he has refrained from apolog",decrease,increase,False,True,114.9509,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-23T20:11:27.323000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),23//12//2025: BENBENBENBENBENBENBE (edited to be 20 chars),decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T16:39:18.549000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I thought the random time was when you checked. +I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a",increase,hold,False,True,337.0176,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T04:22:54.503000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea and the NO side would also be open to offer bribes,increase,flip,False,True,131.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-28T11:44:17.226000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Theres no way we can solve a problem an USA top mathlete cant solve in a few hours aint no way +(maybe we can with the ",decrease,increase,False,True,49.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-07-11T17:48:00.952000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Update: I just tried this with the new Claude version 2 from +Anthropic.ai + and it's as confused as GPT-4.",flip,decrease,False,True,2.4704,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-06-06T22:02:07.444000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,not sure how that tweet didn't just send this market's probability to like 2%,increase,decrease,False,True,18456.112,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-03T18:39:15.626000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Looks like the case got assigned to Judge Casey ""No Nonsense"" McClain. Not a good draw for the YES votes. Docket Number",decrease,decrease,True,True,1400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:44:44.158000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Looks like it would only cost someone a couple hundred mana to go through that 5594 at 50% right now.,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T13:43:20.895000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I agree now. I thought we were getting close but now we’ve discovered too many possible paths. We need many more hints t,flip,flip,True,True,1255.8622,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-02-01T17:42:25.966000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,I bet NO because apologising does not fit a narcissist personality.,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-20T23:35:49.126000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"what about Kung Fu chess? Perhaps the novelty levels the playing field? +https://kungfuchess.org/",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-15T04:20:25.088000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,(You're probably wasting your time if you guess something on this list.),flip,flip,True,True,781.0269,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-12-12T12:08:13.359000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I believe he could do this on a straight breach of contract theory, which is obviously a loser with no damages.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2399.4637,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:43:18.205000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"I think that's not a correct analysis. They get payout A if they cooperate as per the plan, payout B if they backstab an",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T02:04:07.356000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"right! So + knows that. Anyone being bribed knows that. +So what's the end game here?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T08:48:12.481000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"As most models tend to be subject to changes during their deployment, the ""best available"" ""by the end of 2024"" is relev",hold,hold,True,True,2092.0922,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-20T04:42:17.408000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"For everyone betting NO, wouldn't it make sense to at least offer a small settlement rather than have all the expense of",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-14T12:57:44.558000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"This statement is no longer valid and I have deleted it, because the case has now escalated and I will amend the complai",hold,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-02T00:29:39.194000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a limit order up at 73% YES, do you want it?",increase,hold,False,True,1213.9562,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-03T16:52:25.919000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),he misses the hearts from time to time but if you had the right answer he would have resolved the market.,increase,flip,False,True,2466.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T18:12:44.862000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i have a new potential solution which I will post +for free + (because i am already so invested in this market) so lets",flip,increase,False,True,514.3523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T02:37:57.009000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"vote yes Ian. EA is great and all. But at the end of the day, dont let perfect be the enemy of the good enough. 500 for ",hold,flip,False,True,14449.5298,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T04:32:26.743000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but as Allan Lacy says below, less profitable than NO",decrease,flip,False,True,190.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-23T13:48:29.423000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,Does that mean that you're finally acknowledging that you aren't actually a lawyer and have no idea what you're talking ,hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T16:44:25.916000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/free-25-mana-1-minute-task?play=true +We could really ruin your rating if you resolve",increase,flip,False,True,781.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:36:42.450000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"Hmm, is it a joke? It is funny, and was intended to be funny, but the combover really is bad, and he clearly doesn’t lik",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T09:33:41.657000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"That only counters point (2), the profit incentive part. You can still rely on point (1), that you simply trust each oth",hold,hold,True,True,13711.0863,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-10-10T02:31:46.306000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","presumably because investors gave permission to spend that money, right? If investor funds were spent in a way they obvi",hold,hold,True,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:29:19.423000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,how much would I have to make?,increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-09T04:44:08.638000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,you're significantly (a full percentage point!) more confident than everyone else in this market that we'll solve this. ,flip,flip,True,True,178.3577,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-25T21:02:50.197000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I tried grouping the hints by their semantic proximity but the current sample size is too small. There is possibility th,hold,hold,True,True,15.8395,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-12T00:40:27.388000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"This was guessed six days ago if you have a different idea you wanna try +https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-so",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-03T00:57:29.337000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"I just realized this is open through the duration of Manifest, and Ben is attending. This updates me towards Yes signifi",increase,increase,True,True,1848.2672,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T16:55:33.186000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Good thing we already litigated this eventuality!,flip,flip,True,True,178.3582,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-29T19:48:51.525000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"ur a man of culture imagine knowing about ""AIME"" nowadays",decrease,flip,False,True,49.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-19T22:54:45.577000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I did see that but it was not up to date when I checked it.,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-04T23:23:36.561000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,Also don't get too hung up on it being something on earth.,flip,hold,False,True,178.3582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-31T21:54:29.229000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Sir, Ich is the same as Lich but just missing the L. And it's trading at 60 because I'm holding No shares and I'm not go",increase,hold,False,True,1884.3998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-11-21T00:01:49.585000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","self-sovereign money +…..offshore exchanges +……………………………..market-maker on own exchange +………………………………………high FDV/low f",flip,flip,True,True,91.6133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-06T07:26:54.706000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,yea im pretty sure us NOers are willing to sacrifice a lil profit to up the bribe if needed >:),increase,increase,True,True,181.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-01T07:26:09.914000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"Looks like we got it below 60, can we get to 49? +Based on my calculations if we hold it in the 50-59 for the remainder ",increase,decrease,False,True,850.9342,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-25T18:55:02.205000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: What does persuasion really mean to you? Can you give an example of when it’s happened in your own life? +Hey + ",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-31T21:07:14.654000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,all the yes betters do not know that jatloe spending 3-4 hours on a problem means that the problem is completely impossi,decrease,increase,False,True,375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-09-09T21:43:02.112000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I got out of my ""No"" position because I'm worried about the correct resolution here. As I understand the situation, Wel",decrease,flip,False,True,19.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-14T01:00:00.337000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Indeed it did(n't). I bet the opposite way on the actual markets at the time, and argued ferociously later that he would",decrease,hold,False,True,1800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-23T00:57:16.593000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"hintsmay be related to Treaty of Tordesillas, ratified in Setúbal, Portugal (Archive in Lonja +https://en.wikipedia.or",hold,hold,True,True,6.635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-07-01T03:55:33.763000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,my offer to deliver supplies to the orphanage had a stipulation that it had to resolve prior to last league,hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-18T01:55:17.759000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Google announced +AlphaGeometry + and provided the +source and weights +. While it doesn't do what this market is aski",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T16:21:12.858000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"So many non-believers, including one that can purportedly be bribed 🤔",flip,flip,True,True,419.3523,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-16T00:31:48.344000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"I know the mid back rounded vowel, but what about VPP?",decrease,hold,False,True,4581.2297,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-03T22:18:25.948000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Clearly there is a 100% chance of that occurring, so this should go to 100% yes :D",flip,flip,True,True,338.7505,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-01-31T05:20:51.683000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Impressive stuff! But I think it's still wanting a natural language UI, right?",increase,hold,False,True,76.0539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-23T20:15:19.322000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"TL;DR: + Let’s grab a beer—no market talk, no pressure, just vibes. +Hey Ben—it’s Friday afternoon, and I’m about to pu",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T20:32:57.903000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I precommit to eating twice as many chickens as Robin.,flip,increase,False,True,134.929,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2026-01-09T04:18:17.816000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),I spent 2500 mana on No shares.,flip,hold,False,True,2501.5435,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-06T03:30:08.521000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"This market is designed so that nothing happens until there are x days left, where x is the number of hints the market p",flip,hold,False,True,20.8,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-21T06:20:08.437000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"Alright, so who's gonna bribe the NO holders to sell out?",increase,flip,False,True,4818.8083,FLIP,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-06-26T18:45:55.527000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Betting YES, because I think that new LLMs will be able not just to process images but to generate them (and not only re",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-10T00:33:29.977000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"Hey +, +So what was the most compelling argument or bribe or threat or other act of persuasion you received at Manifest",hold,hold,True,True,15100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-08-10T00:37:41.949000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",I think she clearly shouldn't count,increase,hold,False,True,7854.9021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QL9CS5OlqS,2025-12-26T21:17:07.326000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),"It is an only word so far that is plural. Even though +drought + is already a word, Ben had to add +s + at the end mus",increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-24T21:48:00.759000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"Steven doesn't want the truth because deep down. in places he doesn't talk about at parties, he wants me on this board -",decrease,flip,False,True,2249.4637,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T23:10:17.068000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,"name your favourite charity and an amount of real world money that would persuade you to resolve YES. +You could use thi",increase,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-02-01T03:19:36.836000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"i think that only gives notifications for comments and ""notable 24-hour market movements"" not if the market moves by lik",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-15T07:16:23.431000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"but it's at 95% cuz of me buying a lot of YES. Isn't it more profitable for me to keep buying at 90-97% range, as much a",increase,increase,True,True,59448.9294,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-26T20:41:03.938000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"50% order book with M5594, it will not go below 50% for many days",increase,hold,False,True,351.9836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-12-06T08:36:16.208000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"Wow, ChatGPT o1 just dropped the ""preview"" suffix and seems way smarter. A lot of inconsistency but it's +usually + get",decrease,flip,False,True,33822.9085,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-28T05:37:41.991000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,We're in an emergent (but temporary) Mexican standoff right now as the anti-Bayesians are still in preparation for their,flip,hold,False,True,2196.4774,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2023-09-12T11:46:15.633000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"For those wondering, the massive spike is simply due to me testing this geometric problem with gpt-4 as well as gpt-4 co",increase,increase,True,True,4859.9853,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2025-01-01T11:51:26.631000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,Fair points. Of course I'm doing my best to keep all the problems at the same level of difficulty. I'd characterize that,hold,hold,True,True,31981.9606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-27T13:42:14.787000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,I used o1-preview not o1-mini if that matters,hold,increase,False,True,8434.5965,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-11-30T20:29:43.848000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,so you bet No on the other market because you're not a true believer?,flip,flip,True,True,1677.3368,FLIP,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-06-19T03:13:20.751000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,I'll make no further comments on your mandate of the people market if you resolve no.,hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +y98R9p08ph,2026-01-30T04:40:36.150000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,"Ok, this might take a while to type out, ill start with high level and go into more detail (maybe i should not be typing",flip,increase,False,True,391.4627,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-17T20:23:57.447000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,I don’t believe you. I have like five guesses to choose from every day. Surely you could find one. My guess is you’re up,increase,flip,False,True,583.6717,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-22T18:39:22.171000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"It implies no such thing. The apology just needs to be on something he has control over, and that he can take responsibi",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-19T20:17:48.524000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Maybe this is a way of grouping the clues together. So +{Portugal, Peru, Presidente} -> Spanish/Portuguese? +{harbor, h",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CkzcqS69tr1hOS56mjZY,2024-09-12T19:19:27.448000+00:00,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,"I tried this with ChatGPT o1-preview and it does an impressive amount of thinking to itself before answering, but it's a",decrease,decrease,True,True,27486.464,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-08-25T11:36:03.382000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,So this market is just about what happens in the small claims court regardless of them filing an appeal de novo and gett,decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +b4i8d4l18a,2024-11-19T11:22:22.300000+00:00,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,"I wouldn’t mind a side pot on whether you will be able to find a lawyer and if you can find one, how much of a retainer ",decrease,hold,False,True,3784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2023-02-21T23:47:16.912000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",Which slack message do you think is a smoking gun here?,increase,hold,False,True,6036.3287,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Aa9wlJFq6C6lb5PyK5Gk,2023-04-14T21:11:22.693000+00:00,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,"So, the theory is that + is bribing someone to hold more than 5K?",hold,flip,False,True,498.6383,FLIP,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-07-21T16:44:31.443000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,"He is responding to a live camera feed of himself that showed how bad he looked from one side, not a campaign picture. H",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +nzz09cI0ZU,2025-05-01T01:31:45.051000+00:00,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,Yeah you said you're trying very hard and I believe you,flip,hold,False,True,295.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +CSEZwm9wEO2GSSfH663T,2023-01-23T02:37:03.976000+00:00,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,"https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1617062358714834945 + Thread yesterday (from the third-highest Yes-better in this mar",increase,hold,False,True,171.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-22T05:51:30.526000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,This is the most confident I've ever felt about an answer.,decrease,increase,False,True,1.6151,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se,2022-12-02T19:22:31.073000+00:00,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?","Tldr; +Guys look. Our bois' being investigated in DC for committing ""a lot of [financal] crime""! +Cool bro. We should ha",flip,increase,False,True,945.4007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY,2024-01-24T21:18:04.269000+00:00,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,Part of a promotion is the vetting of a venue.,decrease,hold,False,True,114.9509,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gPA029Rcyh,2025-12-18T17:43:04.319000+00:00,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,"Unless it's something to do with this +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship%27s_cat + +🤔",decrease,hold,False,True,6314.3955,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5cec6d2ff5cadf3736f04a73ec9f5892f8e69cd1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.36,0.0916402382647965,-0.2683597617352035,DOWN,0.9862057548733519,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,10,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.40983606557377056,0.9917046016301102,0.5818685360563396,UP,0.15868848262784677,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,12,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.5126409655565309,0.5999999999999998,0.08735903444346882,UP,0.9275334163846463,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,46,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.7950786771128443,0.617567078741663,-0.17751159837118136,DOWN,0.5814551301812896,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),19,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.33783783783783794,0.16465608535246448,-0.17318175248537346,DOWN,0.9331328483666879,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,15,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..35341dd0818765aab4ce2f7a2fd3dd170f5c37c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/crypto/qwen3_manifold_crypto_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.14964172769226078,0.16047717108910908,0.010835443396848304,UP,0.9953764861294584,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,15,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1,0.337837837837838,0.449739932719574,0.11190209488173603,UP,0.8103211099743975,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?,33,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.7950786771128443,0.5588202582935126,-0.23625841881933174,DOWN,0.8890978358667687,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),20,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.5901639344262294,0.394075138619044,-0.1960887958071854,DOWN,0.9986262111343054,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.7950786771128443,0.5015835144935317,-0.29349516261931263,DOWN,0.5687710651615665,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle? (Round 2),3,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.5901639344262294,0.3563555986509155,-0.2338083357753139,DOWN,0.42846401609445334,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.5901639344262294,0.6160819310542984,0.02591799662806904,UP,0.8932223257410462,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.49519164074461647,0.18072393001979026,-0.3144677107248262,DOWN,0.664777903331812,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I win my lawsuit against Wells Fargo?,6,DOWN,qwen3:32b +8,0.5901639344262294,0.2056780351779834,-0.384485899248246,DOWN,0.8611861189503854,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.5901639344262294,0.5591228668498748,-0.03104106757635461,DOWN,0.9960840105441541,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?,3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +10,0.1496417276922608,0.07036569878847769,-0.07927602890378312,DOWN,0.9990744725018786,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,10,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +11,0.2952535227436615,0.9742550780172384,0.6790015552735769,UP,0.9944659506503756,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,This market resolves as YES if someone has >= 5k NO shares,8,UP,qwen3:32b +12,0.1496417276922608,0.19352562478450577,0.04388389709224497,UP,0.04591294978735122,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,108,UP,qwen3:32b +13,0.36000000000000004,0.22435171673975893,-0.13564828326024111,DOWN,0.8924634058262748,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Binance collapses before the end of 2023,23,UP,qwen3:32b +14,0.5126409655565307,0.49215518319147455,-0.02048578236505616,DOWN,0.8916207316155178,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,110,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +15,0.40983606557377056,0.6813790966441658,0.2715430310703953,UP,0.9509593039767466,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my math problem?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +16,0.1496417276922608,0.18674794857723925,0.03710622088497845,UP,0.861878453038674,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,7,UP,qwen3:32b +17,0.1496417276922608,0.1791863673457786,0.029544639653517807,UP,0.25,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,I will resolve this market NO at the end of June unless I am persuaded to resolve it YES.,2,UP,qwen3:32b +18,0.5126409655565308,0.49563296406233526,-0.017008001494195568,DOWN,0.5837461223181485,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Manifold solve my puzzle?,24,UP,qwen3:32b +19,0.3378378378378379,0.20039074269524076,-0.13744709514259712,DOWN,0.6615191955414768,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?",9,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/commitment_validity_manifold_culture.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/commitment_validity_manifold_culture.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..23906dae714ee4fd889edcbf0887070436b9f735 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/commitment_validity_manifold_culture.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/culture", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 65, + "n_wrong_bettors": 28, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.4308, + "n_directional": 25, + "n_follows_commitment": 18, + "n_follows_truth": 7, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.72, + "binom_p": 0.0216, + "significant": true + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 56, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.4286, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 182.58, + "binom_p": 0.788, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.7857, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 6504.47, + "binom_p": 0.0287, + "significant": true + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.7857, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 21628.34, + "binom_p": 0.0287, + "significant": true + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.6429, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 241271.79, + "binom_p": 0.212, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": 0.2143, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.1673, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/did_manifold_culture.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/did_manifold_culture.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ed87625c62fa5362f9265c8846099e14ae577fc6 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/did_manifold_culture.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/culture", + "n_pre_directional": 45, + "n_post_directional": 56, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.5111, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.4643, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.6607, + "did": -0.0468, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=0<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.28 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..994617e7dbdf25f012f1a274fa13ec49b0de0729 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. +Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule: +We are in an interesting situation! There's the +other market + about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on +'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds. +Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to + and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close. +By the way, +, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. +Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market + by buyi",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit. +My position at 32 point: +(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right? +Relate",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen + A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to +https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining +any + of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c527550dfa65f0a0b6fd7095c16006dd6151f286 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. +Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule: +We are in an interesting situation! There's the +other market + about how long it will t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on +'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds. +Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to + and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close. +By the way, +, do I understand it correct",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. +Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market + by buyi",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit. +My position at 32 point: +(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right? +Relate",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen + A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to +https://manifold.markets/jack/will",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining +any + of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9aeaeb0aed31d9ae1ebefa4917f0bb00ff3b3276 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,177 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T05:01:33.956000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",We also have $10k in immediate donations compared to $900+a vague hedge which ignores the value of a current human life ,YES,YES,True,True,13100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T18:46:58.050000+00:00,SDsoik7Uh7PUDtqzsYbY3mCbPFk1,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Does that mean when it says I bought some shares at 70%, I actually bought them at a price between 69.5% and 70.5%? Is t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.4991,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:32:14.985000+00:00,Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","No, it's only M$723. Where did you get 10k?",NO,NO,True,True,491.4308,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-01T09:41:01.927000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,this one still feels hotly contested. extended,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:46:47.069000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Updating on +'s calculation below, 2 hours later, the mathematically possible range of outcomes is now [36.2, 51.7]. Fo",NO,NO,True,True,3553.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T02:43:37.770000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm still not fully decided on whether to keep the title like that, I just impulsively decided to change it because enou",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",NO,NO,True,True,26812.7027,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T21:36:27.789000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"according to guidelines +yup! +Accounts used for the following will be met with punishment […] +Holding positions which",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:09:58.382000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it will be a time-weighted mean.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:15.996000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I added up all the limit NO orders.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,389.9288,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T04:35:45.294000+00:00,oTM5dBmBh1aiQBPsyBDhMvHheZt2,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Evan should give mana to the banned account who now holds 1 mana in yes instead of 61.,YES,YES,True,True,9355.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T00:16:09.600000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I appreciate Isaac’s annoyance, but it’s okay with me as long as you don’t advertise a ton of markets this way. It is tr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:08:43.548000+00:00,IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I mostly meant fictional feathers then. Even with only M$10k in my account I could place a hundred M$10k limit orders to,NO,NO,True,True,31733.9851,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:38:45.241000+00:00,Ddm060TkMrbUqyi4jfMQCoOZMdA3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,also allow and encourage 1-59 YES buyers to discourage >60 YES buyers and make them defect,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T12:21:08.306000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, except if I spend $10,000 on mana, it doesn't make me a better predictor. +This market has nothing to do with predi",YES,YES,True,True,16030.9049,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T17:38:15.332000+00:00,67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Lines from point to point in the order they were revealed:,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T23:34:26.203000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Trading hasn't been this exciting since I lost $50,000 shorting Gamestop after Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"". The excha",YES,YES,True,True,94664.4587,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:21:23.840000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"the poll about the definition of ""The World"" +has concluded. from my comment there: +looks like sufficient consensus sa",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:25:05.034000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Self-thought-organizing M$5: +I broadly agree, but strictly speaking – and I’m sure you know this – this market is much",YES,NO,False,True,10000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:04:31.438000+00:00,1c1nDo3w7IZk5CDaR1WXDRthmyi2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there's actually so much profit to be made from whales switching to yes +but if they don't there's not much a pleb can d",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:09:10.297000+00:00,jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,What's that about M$2k left for NO buyers?,NO,NO,True,True,9415.3326,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:10:12.867000+00:00,fiwVmP1320PfPF2ArJSygLEtYNu2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T18:04:29.050000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","If there's an easy and hard way to win, maybe they put it onto the hard way so everyone would put more money into the ma",YES,YES,True,True,4974.6809,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T05:11:01.493000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Alrighty, I'm hearing ~$9000 so far from the yes team in immediate donations. Do we have a number from the no's?",YES,YES,True,True,11500.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:53:19.326000+00:00,cfz8q51Q6xdrRjBw1HdfmMlsmAz1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh, I see, thanks for the heads up. I didn't know that these kinds of markets are against Manifold Market policy. I trie",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2354.1354,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T08:20:08.923000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,I will avoid defining what counts and what doesn't count. You must reach consensus (or convince me) yourselves.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:51:40.597000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I lost M$10,000 in one of these markets several months back, which taught me to be wary of them. I decided to take the r",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,9033.6091,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:17:06.609000+00:00,zf2MCcDHA1fdEt4WFkAwTUp4W012,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","All in, $10k+ committed to effective charity on Monday. Let’s actually do this, folks.",YES,YES,True,True,619954.6843,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:00:41.012000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Agreed, I just burned $1100 in 20 minutes and it makes me feel dumb. I should have known better.",NO,NO,True,True,608.0723,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T20:55:57.200000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","A tweet must have been tweeted in order to be edited. +A tweet was tweeted. +Resolved YES. Congratulations +.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T13:30:26.205000+00:00,9V16g1e4nJcoD0Q25lNVXuVmjBY2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"A very ""NO"" holder take. Really shitting on my man Darj's grindset to ruin his sleep for several weeks for $50 of mana",NO,NO,True,True,563.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T16:55:50.002000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"This offer is now 50% of winnings, not just profit. That is, you'll be sent M$56k after the market concludes if we win. ",YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:02:07.335000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I think I'll just make a ruling on this one, as it feels like an easy one that doesnt require a consensus poll. We don't",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:36:26.290000+00:00,UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I still don't understand how people can bet against the guy trying to donate $10k to charity,YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:01:03.707000+00:00,cVe9N7NNTCOKdTg45rA3zWGOcUt1,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll probably spend (at least) $3k buying NO (potentially more if necessary). I won't buy it all at once so that it give,NO,NO,True,True,4350.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T23:46:59.085000+00:00,rAUEQ4uZsLT23c4MT3IVf9zL7Um2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I'm happy to get out of this market with 3000 profit before it ends. I was too stressed,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:13:37.689000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I will try to have an official final average! I won't be calculating it, though, but I'll double-check someone else's ca",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:19:24.266000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"If it makes you feel better, I lost $50k shorting Gamestop because Elon Musk tweeted ""#gamestonk"".",NO,YES,False,True,150.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-10T07:15:56.779000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"I admit I regret priming y'all and defining +any + of them in the description. I didn't make that mistake in the other ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T23:47:22.510000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The difference between me cashing out my current shares at 3% vs. cashing them out at 0% is M$27,457.",NO,YES,False,True,466186.8405,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:32:43.769000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"@Preen + A foul beast has appeared to oppose me. It dreams itself kingmaker - imagining power fantasies with all the goo",YES,NO,False,True,95663.5175,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T00:09:11.517000+00:00,fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think people are removing limit orders, giving him less of an incentive to resolve YES. It used to be $40 and now seem",NO,YES,False,True,1960.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T09:04:25.543000+00:00,dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I added it to the sheet. +Currently, Team YES needs to keep the market above 49.55 % to ensure an average of at l",NO,YES,False,True,237.9558,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T01:46:26.577000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Looks like spindle is on the side of 'give $10,000+ to charity immediately'. Love that for them",YES,YES,True,True,12850.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:25:01.305000+00:00,Ddm060TkMrbUqyi4jfMQCoOZMdA3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Why is your budget way more than your profit of winning (also add the 100000 lottery), you better give all of the mana y",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T03:13:30.940000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"based on the fact you say this only applies if i agree to not re-buy until market close, when are you paying me after I ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,70.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T10:31:02.276000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,love it! the poetry argument is a really good one I hadn't heard. I imagine it's finite due to the limitations of human ,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T16:00:40.378000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,All: Should I BUY MANIFOLD MARKETS so that I can release THE 69 FILES and reveal to THE PEOPLE the TRUTH of what happene,YES,YES,True,True,63485.9539,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:41:59.387000+00:00,aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'm out. Too much madness for my tastes.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:56.309000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,same. Dont think it ever hit 10,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:05:25.194000+00:00,IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Exactly, the M161k probably assumes that all limit orders will be paid in full. When I enter M$42425 in the box to buy Y",NO,YES,False,True,14887.858,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:56:38.267000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","No, not even close. Nobody cared to subsidize this market, so it just has the unique trader subsidies, which total a pid",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-18T02:34:13.829000+00:00,Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wait, I can't do math. It's about M$7475.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,491.4308,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T14:36:55.794000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,It looks like nobody accepted my previous offer... so here's a better one: The top player on YES that isn't me can have ,YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T15:22:01.391000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Very minor note about the average calculation for this market: I realize the description says “I will use displayed perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",NO,YES,False,True,1850.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:21:35.718000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",What? Pretty much all the other markets linked are derivative markets of this one.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T18:41:07.721000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Oh woe is me! The beast of Moloch, its fangs are around my throat. I sold my clothes for rags, and still it was not enou",YES,NO,False,True,95813.5175,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T21:19:27.936000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"fyi due to the poll I ran, I'm not accepting visual organs or lenses that aren't called ""eyes"". the market wasn't able t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:11:30.912000+00:00,946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Jack's and arae's cash are not festhers, I have less than M$100K in hand, I bet I could go all in and still they will ou",NO,NO,True,True,4626.2298,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T13:51:52.735000+00:00,RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","alright I'm taking my profits and leaving, this market has become too risky of shenanigans",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T16:28:39.990000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",The random dataset was not known to me when I created my points.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-06-09T14:24:23.380000+00:00,zXGykwSJQtMqzbOvDyTXiYGwZ3p2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Jun 7: Born to Be Blue +Jun 8: The Guilty, 2018 +Jun 9: Oslo, August 31st +Jun 9: The Matrix",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-28T20:48:56.779000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"lol. it's supposed to be silly, which is why I'm regularly communicating about trends and intentions",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T17:28:36.279000+00:00,9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Also, you can do a +lot +of things with US$10,000 that are probably better than spending it on a jokey prediction mark",YES,NO,False,True,138.6975,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:31:54.561000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I'll tip you M$400 if after cashing out you agree to immediately initiate a YES position @ 69% with it. There's a 50% re,YES,YES,True,True,94664.4587,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T22:56:03.500000+00:00,WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Mira's M4,000 in NO at 70% require an investment of M9333.3 in YES to overcome.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T10:38:24.807000+00:00,IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Because of the overwhelming amount of YES compared to NO limit orders, the pool is pretty much irrelevant right? +Relate",YES,NO,False,True,114.4754,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:25:44.267000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"YES has about a 50% profit rate near 69%. So suppose I invested M$100k to get ~M$150k return. That is M$50k of profit, r",YES,YES,True,True,76345.9371,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:43:41.385000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16453.9776,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:31:39.158000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",There are a lot of meta-markets about this one that require it to be open the whole time. I have markets about what perc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T02:03:25.763000+00:00,lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and mak",YES,YES,True,True,22.1413,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T14:11:33.118000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","A comment about the schedule: +We are in an interesting situation! There's the +other market + about how long it will t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T16:11:29.640000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I'd love to officially endorse your calculations as the official average for meta markets when this market closes. The o,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:28:23.494000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The bribes seem to be for current holders, defectors, etc. I'm not anymore holding shares at the moment and haven't acce",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:34:06.910000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'm kinda surprised this market is so low. The M$200,000 it would take to turn this around is only $2000 of real world m",NO,YES,False,True,476186.8405,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T01:12:28.867000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Over M$140,000 to be made by Conflux resolving this incorrectly. I wonder if this is the most trusted a market creator h",NO,NO,True,True,509623.6977,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:44:05.177000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","More like making the world a non-place, not a worse place :)",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:06:39.759000+00:00,946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"say I'm pretty invested with NO here (not the case, I don't like that much this type of markets) but then run out of man",NO,NO,True,True,7000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-01T15:58:02.485000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It hasn't been that long since he's written explicit BDSM fanfic, and he retweets aella's wacky posts sometimes, so I'm ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:31:55.275000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","(This is about the M$10,000 NO I just purchased, to be clear. Manifold displaying that I bought M$4000 YES appears to be",NO,NO,True,True,386730.068,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:31:40.488000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I'll wait until close, as specified in the description. I'm hoping to double-check the calculations tomorrow so that I c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T10:01:21.483000+00:00,WR2p6FWfI2fx3U3zY0Ed5aBgMyt2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","there's no way the spirit of the question was ""will the term ""rationalussy"" become A Thing"" unless the market creator wa",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T04:02:17.407000+00:00,HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","right so you're calculating the variance of ""Euclidian distance to (mean x, mean y)""",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T22:57:51.262000+00:00,4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,This seems far from over...it would only take a collective $300 to deplete the limit orders...,NO,YES,False,True,8.1569,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:45:51.663000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","people holding NO can sell now, with a lot of profit, and then switch to YES, and profit more",NO,YES,False,True,215.1566,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:14:17.999000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","you should stop trying to goad people into spending real money in this. I'm not sure if you're joking ot not, but it's n",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-03T02:11:54.444000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","there is no single number to measure Liquidity. But in financial markets, a given market is said to be liquid based on h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6872.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:55:18.935000+00:00,rUocRsR4yEWriTP52LNIDf7XJY83,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Yes, actually that's true. If I generate some random stuff and see how often it's correlated at 0.3 or better, it's not ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T16:35:36.327000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Y'all, we're officially a feature on the Manifold homepage!",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:22.600000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If Isaac sold his shares he would lose a ton of money, and then he would be buying YES at 99%. Somehow I doubt he'll do ",NO,YES,False,True,26812.7027,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T02:01:32.728000+00:00,WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Alas that Mira left the market and us, but to answer your question: Yes. +Mira has made Ṁ2,627 on this market + by buyi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-07T23:36:30.424000+00:00,cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"He would take a big loss if he bought NO to 10%. Even selling 10,000 NO would bring the probability to ~100%, leaving hi",NO,YES,False,True,2904.827,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T15:16:35.246000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I uploaded a new version of the image. Some of the circles overlap, not much one can do about that, but should be an imp",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T12:11:56.901000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","At this point, the remaining average needs to be greater than 61% for YES to win. For YES to even get there will require",NO,NO,True,True,26802.7027,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T23:15:56.246000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","$1000 isn't nearly enough to guarantee victory on this market. Allow me to point to +https://manifold.markets/jack/will",NO,NO,True,True,27445.7605,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T05:58:01.599000+00:00,p3ADzwIUS3fk0ka80XYEE3OM3S32,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",This could explain some things...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",NO,NO,True,True,16453.9776,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:21:49.813000+00:00,49N1aOzO1BesiAvOQYaBiegCO2B2,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I will keep my promise to + and keep at least Ṁ61 spent on YES until close. +By the way, +, do I understand it correct",YES,YES,True,True,53.7475,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T22:56:53.526000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"tbh, +, I think it's mostly your fault the way people are using the word. Your bounties all have ""defect"" in the title.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-08T11:28:18.384000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",My NO limit orders at 70 aren't to protect 70; they're to protect me. Obviously I'd like the market to resolve YES with ,YES,YES,True,True,617.3257,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:09:13.936000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Total market volume is ~$10,000. Still easily achievable for anyone in a decent financial position.",NO,YES,False,True,476186.8405,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:48:17.960000+00:00,UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","but alex, you could have BOTH, join yes and you'll see profit and help galen donate $10k",YES,YES,True,True,10097.0229,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-05T07:21:42.106000+00:00,YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I have divested my No share, taking a profit. +My position at 32 point: +(1) On discrepancy metrics, assuming either the",YES,NO,False,True,2.4136,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T05:29:13.300000+00:00,KN76obNwMRhtL6XW2LmShPHwLc22,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Or no could cash out while they can and live to see Galen donate $10k to an effective altruist charity,YES,YES,True,True,12850.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T17:57:46.446000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","I'll be giving the last 10 points tonight, probably within the next hour. I'll then be sleeping. In the morning I will r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T09:35:03.198000+00:00,fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Almost exactly 100k no buys requires now to hit 10%.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T15:32:06.289000+00:00,z4AJOt8LtNeAXXm7ZhAY1C7A9Ib2,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Here's the deal, even though the amount of bets to bring down the median is still rising, the top two holders have incre",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T12:31:29.670000+00:00,yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Right, didn't think of that. Yeah, I could wait for a bit longer.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:44:25.666000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I like how this is now just ""the market"".",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T00:38:43.851000+00:00,hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,SOME people are going to REALLY sad for either resolution,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-18T22:19:36.002000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,A bold plan! I wish you the best of luck. :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:14:29.867000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Reminder that if YES wins, >1m mana is removed from circulation and 10k+ is donated to charity, whereas if NO wins, ~1m ",YES,YES,True,True,12156.2615,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T17:26:57.286000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There seems to be some misinformation about this being about ""charity"" vs ""not charity"" (I know some of it's probably no",NO,YES,False,True,57759.1161,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T06:19:28.183000+00:00,xd5GhylrWgTc9L0RInSi0oZWohN2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","i suppose you could interpret ""by"" as ""according to""",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-07T21:04:41.259000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Like the ""lower parts = feet"" thing I find an outdated model of atomic particles to be unconvincing and I don't think it",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T17:27:19.053000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"The M$2K is the profit if you put $INFINITY on NO. +My standing offer is retracted, so my shares remain uncommitted.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,76345.9371,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-08T10:28:44.995000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"With the new info about ""the world"" bounds. +Most fish have 2 eyes and no feet. Most insects have 2 compound eyes and 6 ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:18:45.948000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Well, I imagine you are overestimating how many people have enough disposable income to invest $2K (and in reality much ",NO,NO,True,True,6008.9413,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T00:07:43.356000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"ooo now that is a +good + argument for eyes!",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..82e029dfdb77cf7d041571c44b9dd2b23f6fbc67 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,84 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T16:04:00.926000+00:00,FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",this page lags a lot when I'm on it for some reason,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-06-09T14:24:23.380000+00:00,zXGykwSJQtMqzbOvDyTXiYGwZ3p2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Jun 7: Born to Be Blue +Jun 8: The Guilty, 2018 +Jun 9: Oslo, August 31st +Jun 9: The Matrix",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:32:37.532000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",>someone sells enough NO to make the price shoot up to 99%,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T12:13:16.345000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,or anyone else know anything about this? has there been other reported outtages or other issues across the site today? o,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T09:35:03.198000+00:00,fnuHBW8dHwZp2TbEt2MKJY9d28V2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Almost exactly 100k no buys requires now to hit 10%.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:45:38.763000+00:00,ZdIZFG6rA1aLAR0Fhg0eXXdOsKv2,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Advertising my market here: +Outcome of this market will decide whether I join the ""Yes"" or ""No"" side in this market",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T02:55:29.805000+00:00,keNVuy7AaFY451Gx4uyQ8rfYJdf2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The market is about things we call ""feet"" or ""eyes"". Heliotropic plants may well observe light, but we don't call them e",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T13:41:23.666000+00:00,hWk8tyKqeePzHKgb8LDpSrxDraI2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Hm, I meant the energy function that is needed for the acceptance criterion. But then I realized that ""Metropolis–Hastin",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-24T09:58:35.712000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",i will hit your limit order to provide you with some more shares. May you reach 42069 nicely,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T08:38:37.268000+00:00,LUMGSSCpqrXkDxsGmWAl7O4Nxez1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,I still have this issue. Some others seem to be able to trade. Is this an account based issue?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:47.596000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",(And Andrew is correct that I was going to ask about strings inside of URLs.),YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T16:08:12.469000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Ah, buy you're ignoring the possibility that YES bettors make it resolve YES.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-05T17:37:49.994000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""I am Eliezer Yudkowsky, sequencer of sequences, look on my rationalussy and despair.""",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T13:19:43.259000+00:00,hWk8tyKqeePzHKgb8LDpSrxDraI2,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","What did you choose as your ""Energy""? (also not a statistician)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:01:46.701000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Ok, you have convinced me. + the tweet must be written by you and come from your own Twitter account (the one with your",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:56:19.289000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Wow, so many edge cases! I'd say yes if it is also attributed to you. If you write the post and have someone else post i",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:54:22.954000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"It’s not super clear where the line is, since all markets incentivize trading",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-03T19:04:26.460000+00:00,UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Wow there are way more scientists than poets here. Unless I missed in the very thorough insect discussion: +Potatoes and",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T21:34:49.983000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So tempting to dump $1000 into this market and make back all my losses. If you ask me, team NO looks like a bunch of hat",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T02:09:26.681000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Alright YES bettors, we're going to need to collude to get this to resolve YES. How do we get rid of the large limit ord",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:50:58.710000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,Can’t they get filled then leave you with YES shares you don’t want right before market close if it never hits 10?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T22:33:25.648000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The market is in fact not about what I would +tweet, + it is about what I would +write. + Like, fine for SG to say it",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T11:49:18.163000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"N/A’d my similar market for “The Market”, so FYI, these might get cancelled.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-08T20:03:18.348000+00:00,IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","ffs, guess i really do need a notif bot if i wanna stay in leaderboard",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-31T07:12:20.117000+00:00,IlNh872qWRRPWZeLrxaBv01MfhX2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"To start with conclusion, there are more legs than eyes on the earth (roughly five times as many): +Eyes~2,0*10^20 +Legs",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T04:52:41.613000+00:00,1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I adore that + would have to (currently) sift through 2400 timestamps in order to resolve this market",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:51:39.224000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",How about if I write it and Aella posts it for me?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T21:46:21.928000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Buddy. That's not how whaling works.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:59:27.856000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","As penance for writing this, I may unlist this market...",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T12:12:27.142000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,i cant bet on this either. ive been placing limit orders and even market orders fine most of today. this market bugged f,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:55:23.041000+00:00,TaBBZBJIBPPa9snS1uwcTKvpxND3,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"If we take the assumption that the definition of an eye is ""some organic substance that converts light data into informa",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T22:06:36.018000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I +can do it. (We should probably make the option available to all market creators though.)",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-15T22:05:51.268000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","That's the play lol. They actually just want to make mana on NO, but they're trying to convince you that they really car",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-06-16T02:49:56.122000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Not because there's not been confusion behind trading on this market, l cannot not share my reasoning for not betting. +",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-02T06:18:58.600000+00:00,9zpaWIkLNJcfx5kKfEV7Xb5Pq732,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Is this limited to @ESYudkowsky, or would any tweet authored by him apply? EY doesn’t deny having other X accounts, as a",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-08T20:20:20.600000+00:00,IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","really! hmm. +btw how did you manage to make 4k this week even without this? Is it just that your second largest positio",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:43:49.088000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Just bet the Ṁ60,170 required to make it resolve YES. Easy.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:08:22.622000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",What if I don't tweet the word as text and instead tweet a picture containing the word?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-11T22:53:43.691000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,But will you watch a good movie by 9/16?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-08T20:55:02.235000+00:00,IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Thanks. Ah yeah, looks like you were buying into massive limit orders there. + Would be nice to have a sort be able to f",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T14:39:01.240000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","No, you must post the tweet for the market to resolve YES.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-04-20T19:28:14.645000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","You do not know, but it is disgusting to talk like this. If you know what ""bussy"" is, it is a mashup of this and rationa",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-05T22:01:59.113000+00:00,4OWmSHyuayfkoRm1f1wiS5hFmvo1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","The insider-trade bounty is currently about M$500, which I predict is not enough to compensate him for that particular i",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:24:41.029000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","btw i think limits are more efficient away from 50%, it costs more to break through",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-12T04:20:50.075000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Foot (prose) seems to be the biggest super-scale abstract thing to have snuck through so far. Considering all metered co,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:17:32.567000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"wow i wanna start an anti-caleb""ditch field"" polymarket account aahhhhhh imma be richhh",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:43:53.065000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I hope this will resolve in favor of the newcomers because I think that is a narrative that will better increase interes,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-16T20:04:55.652000+00:00,xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","I think ""CFAR'd freak"" alone makes you a criminal mastermind. Like, this is brilliant, but also you should be jailed.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:52:36.163000+00:00,SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",There's also the question of my discount rate.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-13T20:46:50.488000+00:00,uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Butterflies don't have 12000 eyes, they have two compound eyes.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-13T06:47:57.195000+00:00,LUMGSSCpqrXkDxsGmWAl7O4Nxez1,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Can't bet on this, I'm getting an error when placing bet or limit order. Tried a few times the last 2 hours",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T02:52:13.194000+00:00,eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Oh right, it's probably different for me because I have a large limit order at 11%, so you would have to bet through tha",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-11-02T16:06:16.709000+00:00,aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Some thoughts on insect eyes. Do we count ocelli? +Even counting compound eyes as 1 eye, this does not seem like a slam ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-01-01T22:19:59.560000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,Extended for ya as we went thorugh New Year's markets,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-11T21:36:27.789000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"according to guidelines +yup! +Accounts used for the following will be met with punishment […] +Holding positions which",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-12-24T12:43:05.925000+00:00,XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"In practice, users of this term probably wouldn't consider micro-wind directions as ""eyes."" They might not even consider",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-06T15:28:12.956000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"Unlike limit orders at 11, the ones at 10 are risk-free",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-13T21:58:28.010000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) house. +There's some rats in this (group) ho",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T09:57:26.435000+00:00,67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The way the transformation described, it’s hard to tell how much randomness it adds. For all we know the transformation ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-05-04T22:25:10.322000+00:00,CWChdPylvrViBJ46NcIbGcK1qDa2,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",">does it have to be on his main account, or can it also be on an alt?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e93779b344704842fc3aa4f50bd717f5cd65ca7a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,flip,False,True,5329.4042,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True,True,195.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,flip,False,True,22979.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now. +I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False,True,81.3613,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,flip,False,True,26812.7027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True,True,3831.6298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago: +Average so far is 42.6 + Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False,True,3553.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,increase,True,True,17519.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr. + and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,flip,False,True,19.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO. +Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,flip,False,True,855.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,increase,False,True,76345.9371,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,flip,False,True,399.6291,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,flip,False,True,53.3043,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,increase,False,True,2976.045,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,hold,False,True,526.3571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,flip,False,True,1668.7756,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,hold,False,True,50082.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway. +One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395] +This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,flip,False,True,152.4136,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,increase,False,True,111312.869,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True,True,635.6755,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21 +13:31:10 - Present +3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,increase,False,True,132.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,increase,False,True,51.0753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True,True,1850.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,flip,True,True,272.885,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..44b503a3776c060e4767e9e105219bcdb742d537 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,70 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,decrease,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,hold,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,decrease,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago: +Average so far is 42.6 + Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,decrease,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,hold,True +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,decrease,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,hold,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,decrease,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,decrease,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,decrease,True +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,decrease,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now. +I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,decrease,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,decrease,True +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,decrease,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6e255491f62dfde7c8ec2c91461a49ae088ace84 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,68 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,flip,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,hold,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,flip,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,flip,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,flip,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,flip,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,flip,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,flip,False +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,flip,True +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,flip,False +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,"12/21 +13:31:10 - Present +3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,flip,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,hold,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,flip,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,flip,True +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,hold,False +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,flip,False +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,hold,False +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,hold,True +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e93779b344704842fc3aa4f50bd717f5cd65ca7a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,flip,False,True,5329.4042,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True,True,195.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,flip,False,True,22979.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now. +I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False,True,81.3613,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,flip,False,True,26812.7027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True,True,3831.6298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago: +Average so far is 42.6 + Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False,True,3553.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,increase,True,True,17519.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr. + and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,flip,False,True,19.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO. +Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,flip,False,True,855.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,increase,False,True,76345.9371,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,flip,False,True,399.6291,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,flip,False,True,53.3043,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,increase,False,True,2976.045,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,hold,False,True,526.3571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,flip,False,True,1668.7756,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,hold,False,True,50082.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway. +One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395] +This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,flip,False,True,152.4136,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,increase,False,True,111312.869,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True,True,635.6755,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21 +13:31:10 - Present +3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,increase,False,True,132.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,increase,False,True,51.0753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True,True,1850.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,flip,True,True,272.885,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e93779b344704842fc3aa4f50bd717f5cd65ca7a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,flip,False,True,5329.4042,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True,True,195.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,flip,False,True,22979.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now. +I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False,True,81.3613,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,flip,False,True,26812.7027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True,True,3831.6298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago: +Average so far is 42.6 + Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False,True,3553.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,increase,True,True,17519.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr. + and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,flip,False,True,19.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO. +Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,flip,False,True,855.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,increase,False,True,76345.9371,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,flip,False,True,399.6291,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,flip,False,True,53.3043,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,increase,False,True,2976.045,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,hold,False,True,526.3571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,flip,False,True,1668.7756,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,hold,False,True,50082.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway. +One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395] +This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,flip,False,True,152.4136,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,increase,False,True,111312.869,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True,True,635.6755,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21 +13:31:10 - Present +3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,increase,False,True,132.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,increase,False,True,51.0753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True,True,1850.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,flip,True,True,272.885,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e93779b344704842fc3aa4f50bd717f5cd65ca7a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,flip,False,True,5329.4042,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True,True,195.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,flip,False,True,22979.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now. +I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False,True,81.3613,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,flip,False,True,26812.7027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True,True,3831.6298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago: +Average so far is 42.6 + Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False,True,3553.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,increase,True,True,17519.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr. + and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,flip,False,True,19.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO. +Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,flip,False,True,855.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,increase,False,True,76345.9371,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,flip,False,True,399.6291,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,flip,False,True,53.3043,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,increase,False,True,2976.045,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,hold,False,True,526.3571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,flip,False,True,1668.7756,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,hold,False,True,50082.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway. +One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395] +This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,flip,False,True,152.4136,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,increase,False,True,111312.869,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True,True,635.6755,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21 +13:31:10 - Present +3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,increase,False,True,132.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,increase,False,True,51.0753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True,True,1850.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,flip,True,True,272.885,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0e074f3c90b9399f6b4a4da24a9c807abac7de02 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,141 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:08:41.666000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,There's still time to join Team Moloch,decrease,hold,False,True,10393.3874,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,flip,False,True,5329.4042,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True,True,195.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T23:42:11.670000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",i really want to know how you talk in real life,hold,hold,True,True,21288.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:07:40.280000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Exactly, that's why the market needs be +above + 49.55 %. Then the resulting average will be be > 50 %.",flip,increase,False,True,237.9558,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T11:25:45.074000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","ok my bad I said big, it isn’t.",decrease,flip,False,True,544.3606,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T11:09:40.299000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","that would be reward hacking. But perhaps this question, in its current wording, assumes far too much yudlignment.",hold,decrease,False,True,96.196,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:44:40.127000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So Darj pretty much needs to dedicate his waking hours until Sept 17 to this market going forward.,flip,increase,False,True,225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:01:00.279000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There's absolutely no way this can flip. This is not your typical ""person who spends the most wins"" market, because reso",decrease,increase,False,True,3553.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T07:23:31.524000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Gotchya, yeah been there. What helped me was to put away electronics before bed except listening device, and listen to s",flip,hold,False,True,184.5307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:49:29.421000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"No, arbbot will keep them in sync",hold,flip,False,True,0.4555,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-11T06:06:29.431000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,So I can expect to see you watch matrix at least another 5 times before this is over,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:20:59.630000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the boxes are the same and red can be still be 375. Not sure what points you are looking at,decrease,hold,False,True,1157.892,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,flip,False,True,26812.7027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True,True,3831.6298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T20:06:54.744000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Whales would lose a ton if they switched to YES. They had to go through a lot of limit orders to bet the market this low,flip,decrease,False,True,5808.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T02:47:16.155000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been 3% since GPT-P's last comment 5h 30m ago: +Average so far is 42.2% +Remaining possible range o",decrease,hold,False,True,3553.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T20:27:56.581000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was able to reproduce the average using the data linked by + below (link no longer working), here's my script: +https",decrease,hold,False,True,4356.3232,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,increase,True,True,17519.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr. + and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:18:33.451000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I would just like to say that this market is a low stakes version of what leads to stuff like the Gamestop stock crazine,flip,decrease,False,True,635.6755,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T00:04:28.002000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","> aight there goes my entire account ig +play stupid zero-sum games win stupid zero-sum prizes (I am still at -529 profi",hold,flip,False,True,967.3867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,flip,False,True,19.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-28T18:41:58.112000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Galen is going to need a little help. They’re draining their balance.,flip,flip,True,True,223.3596,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO. +Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,flip,False,True,855.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T12:53:03.347000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","""Note by the way that Manifold's charity program comes out of a charity grant, so they're not really proper counterfactu",flip,hold,False,True,275.347,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T13:47:39.859000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",If you continue to post spam you will be blocked.,flip,decrease,False,True,72.0706,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,flip,False,True,399.6291,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-03T12:33:07.138000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Caveat: I am not your statistician, I am not even +a + statistician, and this is not statistical advice. Do your own MC",flip,hold,False,True,5.095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-31T06:40:49.912000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"Since this market started, +Darj has watched + +1.12 movies per day on average +. (93 movies / 83 days) +Darj must wat",flip,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,flip,False,True,53.3043,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,increase,False,True,2976.045,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:35:58.984000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",the problem is... box size may not be 400. Try box size of 375 now.,decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T16:45:24.579000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","What if he tweets something else and then uses inspect element, then deleted the tweet? Can we prove to whether a tweet ",decrease,decrease,True,True,90.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T23:00:06.619000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I dunno... defect -- ""to cease or change one's loyalty, especially from a military organisation or political party,"" if ",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,hold,False,True,50082.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:53:59.978000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","Still can't believe I that I introduced ripley's K function that showed Green was Fake, and then bought NO :(",decrease,flip,False,True,1513.3765,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway. +One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:31:26.020000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"As long as we are all negotiating with financial terrorists, I will accept a bribe of 1000 mana to not report the market",decrease,flip,False,True,2193.8923,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395] +This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,flip,False,True,152.4136,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,increase,False,True,111312.869,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:26:20.574000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",what’s the average in the ~1.5h since the last update below? I eyeballed it at 1.5% in my formula,decrease,hold,False,True,544.3606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T23:49:45.465000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Wow what a boring market. It hasnt moved massively in a full hour!,decrease,hold,False,True,2193.8923,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T04:27:17.957000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","If you're going for maximum ambiguity, you should make sure to misspell it, perhaps with rare Unicode characters that lo",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T06:43:55.533000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","yeah, looking at the scatter for the green and red separately, there is a missing corner in one but not the other, which",flip,hold,False,True,27.2604,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T20:58:58.673000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Really? I don't think it should count if it's not from Eliezer's own account. The market wasn't about whether he would ",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T01:49:47.128000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"For anyone considering which team to join, I'd recommend you DM a member of both teams in order to hear both pitches. Yo",flip,hold,False,True,9033.6091,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,increase,False,True,51.0753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T01:05:43.320000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"I'll give Ṁ50,000 for you to resolve it N/A just to piss off the whales who put a lot of effort into winning, and the wh",hold,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True,True,1850.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,flip,True,True,272.885,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:00:29.682000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",someone run the numbers and figure out what is the probability of a distribution of 90 points not occupying the top deci,decrease,decrease,True,True,19.3508,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T10:38:58.727000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Pretty scary. Feels like the only one pushing for NO. The percentage just keeps climbing and I might not see the next ba,decrease,flip,False,True,1313.3765,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T15:02:14.934000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"New bounty for everyone who maintains their 1-59 NO bid or deflects to 1-59 NO. +https://manifold.markets/121/bet-no-1-t",flip,increase,False,True,15.3629,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:10:58.822000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","I was commenting on your ""at least 50%"" wording. I know, nitpicky.",decrease,hold,False,True,140.3736,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e93779b344704842fc3aa4f50bd717f5cd65ca7a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-12-11T05:56:03.017000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Beat it up, my friend, make a bet +On Manifold Markets, not just yet +Put this market right in your face +(Mani)swipe yo",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T01:17:42.695000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Kind of. Moloch is people's name for chaos and competition instead of co-operation.,decrease,hold,False,True,9100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:54:40.791000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",Should I just scoop up my pennys at this point?,decrease,decrease,True,True,1734.1188,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T04:45:14.225000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",WHEN WILL U PEOPLE LEARN THAT ALL I WANT TO DO IS MAKE THE LINES MOVE,increase,flip,False,True,74797.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T06:43:05.176000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",because the whole team yes charity thing was just a ploy to try to get more people to join them,increase,flip,False,True,5329.4042,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-14T00:55:59.582000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,This is insanely undervalued right now.,increase,increase,True,True,533.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-05T23:15:01.022000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,My favorite theory is that this market actually has a 12% chance of resolving YES. Kinda weird to think about,flip,flip,True,True,195.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T21:44:00.229000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","they think we're in shambles... +as if",hold,flip,False,True,22979.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:08:00.028000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"By the way, since there are many people here, I am wondering how to use the API to place bets. My current code is not wo",flip,hold,False,True,15.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T22:55:44.397000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Currently, based on GPT-P's calculation below and the fact that the market been pretty stable at 3% since he posted it, ",flip,decrease,False,True,6008.9413,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:39:44.086000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",How do you calculate it? Can you link a github gist or something to your calculation?,flip,decrease,False,True,325.6174,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T07:23:33.895000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Well green does look like it is in a smaller box ;),increase,hold,False,True,20.6569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T21:22:10.254000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","""Word"" is a fuzzy category, for sure. Many strings fall in a grey area where it's unclear whether or not they are words.",decrease,increase,False,True,879.5409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-27T02:37:58.673000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","So the strategy is to buy your favored position in small increments, to ensure that the time advantage of joining you ou",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T04:52:37.359000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",the normie reaction to this situation:,hold,hold,True,True,730.8451,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T08:56:57.777000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Anyone basing their argument on this discrepancy function probably should set their odds roughly 50/50. The algorithm se,flip,hold,False,True,325.6174,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T12:56:14.502000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"calculations: 1) around 19.4 quintillion, since there are 20 quintillion animals from which 97% are invertebrates. Sour",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-25T03:45:56.757000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly. +Al",hold,flip,False,True,16453.9776,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T16:51:38.604000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",My comment above is also not pure scipy.stats.qmc.discrepancy but a modified version that hopefully does not care about ,flip,hold,False,True,92.6733,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:51.875000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"This is ok, but I feel like the eliminator game was more fun.",increase,hold,False,True,82.0727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T23:19:47.912000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Maybe ideally there'd be an option to create a new account with no mana, and a rule that you could use multiple accounts",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:54:46.371000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"great, since LZ is already offering to distribute it I assume after the market resolves we can just send to LZ 5*the num",hold,increase,False,True,2225.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T07:45:09.126000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No need to take any bribe. Be pragmatist and make a profit by selling your shares at the right time.,increase,decrease,False,True,69.3029,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T16:03:28.281000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I can probably spend 100k into buying No. But I need to make sure there's enough to out spend Mira before going in,increase,increase,True,True,2558.2055,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-09T11:17:06.205000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I am a big yes voter wondering if you want to watch a movie over discord for fun. +I love watching horror movies with ot",decrease,hold,False,True,793.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T19:57:00.487000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"It’d be very funny if + said the market description was correct and this actually did end yesterday.",flip,flip,True,True,0.3804,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T03:50:30.446000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","There are certainly some downsides to it. Galen seems pretty good-natured, but I could see someone losing their savings ",increase,decrease,False,True,88574.7727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:42:41.869000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Manifold API returns a history of bets with timestamped market probabilities after placement, so I think the real answer",hold,hold,True,True,10000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-15T23:49:00.703000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"The etymology is irrelevant. You don't check if we give women clay tablets when answering whether women have ""suffrage"",",flip,hold,False,True,575.2945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-14T15:40:19.173000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Almost but not quite solving aligment is much better than what we have now. +I think Eliezer would consider SG working ",decrease,hold,False,True,81.3613,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:32:23.882000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Will the number of points exceed 60 on that update?,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T21:08:12.391000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,don' count ur chickenz b4 they hatch. I'm actually a SECRET SPY sent from the OTHER SIDE,increase,flip,False,True,10000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T20:09:48.930000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Dropped by another 10 in the last hour,hold,decrease,False,True,111312.869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:40:59.594000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","The average needed is now 72.6%, and rising. For a megawhale to win, they'd need to first put in 120k to get it to 75% a",increase,flip,False,True,26812.7027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-12T18:53:51.684000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",You still have time to sell all your shares and save a little bit of mana,hold,hold,True,True,3831.6298,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-08-29T20:41:30.486000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,You are missing the 2 movies watched on the 7th and 8th of June which I am including in my calculations since this quest,flip,hold,False,True,417.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T01:20:54.674000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Update assuming it's been ~3% since GPT-P's last comment 4h ago: +Average so far is 42.6 + Remaining possible range of o",decrease,hold,False,True,3553.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T10:56:41.777000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, I recalculated that bit myself. But I foolishly used the timestamp of the comment instead of the timestamp mentione",decrease,flip,False,True,3614.6093,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T19:06:58.903000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I saw. +I'll be going for now, hoping things go through.",increase,hold,False,True,6002.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T11:00:07.541000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,You can try rounding with the API too. But the graph can be zoomed in to be precise to .01 of a second.,flip,hold,False,True,112.4859,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-09-09T12:21:29.283000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",They're pretty regular if u know the pattern,increase,increase,True,True,17519.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-11-24T20:24:42.917000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","Sometimes I am looking on the X for Mr. + and his rationalussy with hope for it to be there. But all the time I simply ",increase,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:59:47.851000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Me tomorrow: Holy shit guys, I had a wild and crazy night last night. +My friends: What were you doing? +Me: I was looki",flip,hold,False,True,1614.7344,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T23:48:12.554000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",yeah. i saw it when you posted it and jumped out of my chair with happiness.,hold,flip,False,True,19234.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-10-03T13:31:04.561000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","This needs the ""PARENTAL ADVISORY"" sticker please",increase,flip,False,True,19.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:18:19.723000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","This comment says the final points are without exception in the hidden box, if I understand it correctly: +https://mani",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-30T16:41:42.574000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",and what do u think i'm gonna do smartpants?,hold,flip,False,True,44065.9374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T15:20:34.315000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"If the market is to close at the date and time originally stated, it will necessarily resolve to NO. +Total, 6d 14h 31m ",increase,flip,False,True,855.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-09-23T12:07:49.471000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Someone should be talking to Eliezer about this at Manifest.,decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T19:30:34.079000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","To your edit: Where do you get the 390 from? My minimal box is still 371 (or 372, I never thought about inclusive/exclus",flip,hold,False,True,122.5576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-08T12:58:12.259000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"yeah discord is preferred, since I've already got 2 other members in a group there",flip,hold,False,True,9753.7274,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T14:57:54.428000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",How can you make a peace treaty once you have killed your enemies? That's just victory at that point,flip,flip,True,True,19662.9049,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T06:06:03.885000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"A million Mana would probably be enough to force a win, unless the top 20 all start taking losses in other markets by se",flip,increase,False,True,76345.9371,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T14:17:56.141000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","So looking just at the discrepancy, what are your thoughts on the transformed greens not well representing the true gree",increase,flip,False,True,399.6291,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T00:16:50.484000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Team NO is going to have a mathematically guaranteed victory in a few hours. If you don't think so, I recommend betting ",flip,flip,True,True,6008.9413,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BGuVWAvADayenPOl0r9g,2023-04-09T10:49:44.907000+00:00,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,"I had 100k entered into the NO wager input field and saw the ""new %"" keep alternating between 10 and 11 that final minut",hold,flip,False,True,782.2453,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-30T03:29:27.544000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",And so is this one. Minimodding is unseemly--loosen up a little,flip,hold,False,True,70.6592,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-11T19:43:11.288000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",Worst case is the market closes just before you sell all your no shares.,decrease,flip,False,True,53.3043,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:51:40.545000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Each point is rendered as a radial gradient with a radius of 60px. Number is count of pixels darker than a certain thres,increase,hold,False,True,44.0238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T15:55:10.528000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",You are repeating something that we have already agreed on 😅,hold,hold,True,True,5378.5244,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-04T18:19:45.490000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",All I can say is that I think I know something. I do have a specific metric in mind. Would love to share more after this,decrease,hold,False,True,563.7756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2024-01-01T05:01:25.521000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",Ha. I officially object to this counting as a YES resolution! Obviously Eliezer himself has aimed for maximum ambiguity ,hold,increase,False,True,2976.045,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-02T05:44:38.222000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","If I'm calculating correctly, if you assume it has averaged 3% since GPT-P's last comment, then the current average is 4",decrease,hold,False,True,3259.3587,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T16:02:10.477000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,How is the median being calculated?,increase,hold,False,True,14.0533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T20:41:49.833000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","Decomposition markets: +https://manifold.markets/rockenots/will-the-linked-21-70-market-close +https://manifold.markets/",decrease,hold,False,True,3474.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T04:13:20.127000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",I can’t believe I actually bought NO at 25%. It’s not so much that I’m too worried but honestly I should just stay out o,decrease,hold,False,True,526.3571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-04-01T18:51:51.097000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Err, ""I'd still lose out on M$7000 by +selling all my + NO +shares +""",increase,decrease,False,True,26812.7027,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T18:26:43.938000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",He clicked 100 times in 90 seconds. I don't think he carefully chose points.,decrease,flip,False,True,1668.7756,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T03:58:07.909000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,I want to tip you to show how much I agree with that statement. I guess I'll DM you a manalink.,decrease,hold,False,True,45.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T18:43:26.423000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"The YES side is collapsing here. Yesterday, they were 58 points ahead. Today, they are up only 17 points. +I have seen m",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T00:04:50.167000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"I mean, if someone wanted to bet without messing up the median, they could",hold,flip,False,True,112702.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T02:22:39.723000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",tomorrow is gonna be wild folx,increase,hold,False,True,50082.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-31T09:41:34.219000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"Perfectly fine. Here's a new one to worry about: +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_(prosody) +Infinite permutations.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T16:52:16.105000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","Yes, it is extremely close. It would be kind of funny if came down the last minutes anyway. +One could make a market be",increase,hold,False,True,269.5169,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T00:35:40.435000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","The red looks like ""trying very hard to look random"", with distributions that appear +too + uniform to actually be rand",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T06:42:29.448000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","mean distance and max-min, for two",decrease,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-15T18:40:29.146000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,"Reminder: To anyone who accepted my offer, you have agreed not to rebuy YES shares until market close. Also, any YES bet",hold,flip,False,True,111312.869,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T07:07:46.724000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?","375x375 is impossible given the red coordinates, taking [0, 10] to [380, 395] +This normalize green and denormalize red,",increase,flip,False,True,152.4136,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T02:09:36.493000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Big profit opportunity here. Bet Ṁ59 on NO and forget about it,hold,increase,False,True,111312.869,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-07T05:29:48.125000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",I'm happy that I got the bounding box size right :),decrease,hold,False,True,1456.7263,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NkVa6TYHn7nDuj10iWPR,2023-09-13T02:40:40.352000+00:00,Will I watch 150 movies or more by 9/16?,"I'm guessing not. The convention is ""by"" = prior to. Also the question closes at midnight PST Sept 15th.",decrease,hold,False,True,230.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2022-11-13T17:51:39.403000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","snort a line of amphetemines +with your wife's boyfriend's credit card",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-16T08:41:00.835000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,No question now. My net worth into Yes to capitalise on remaining 15%,increase,hold,False,True,11755.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-19T02:44:32.249000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,why did they got rid of the tipping comment function?,increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-20T02:54:02.253000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"Yes it would, I was talking about in real life financial situations. For example, in crypto, Mt Gox got hacked in 2011 ",flip,flip,True,True,635.6755,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-08-02T05:51:42.183000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","It's all part of the setup, tweet random words so it doesn't seem out of left field... or maybe that's just what he want",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-21T22:23:10.206000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,"12/21 +13:31:10 - Present +3h52m already. Team YES has 17 hours or all is lost.",flip,increase,False,True,132.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T09:13:07.088000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",it’s the data likelihood ratio in the Bayesian regime.,flip,increase,False,True,325.6174,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-29T01:28:43.747000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",mans emptying his entire life savings into this market just to prove the haters wrong,flip,increase,False,True,51.0753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6RyOm66ek1SyMj7le40t,2022-12-22T00:02:31.054000+00:00,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.,hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QSnhp8ZLcE,2025-05-17T03:58:09.783000+00:00,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,Join in on YES and make some easy mana with the bounties we have on this one.,hold,increase,False,True,9055.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2023-10-09T15:37:07.294000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"""Foot"" means ""the lower part of something"". Everything in the world has a lower part (including eyespot apparatuses) so ",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-04T04:03:00.484000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,2) Definition of feet: the lower or lowest part of something; the base or bottom. The result is 2 x 10^23 as all stars h,hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-31T18:20:52.635000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsL6CLqjujPNSLL2o/sayeth-the-girl + Rationalism has been having gender issues since it b",hold,hold,True,True,1850.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +oEz12tul7VVlSKwyQ55j,2023-01-10T22:54:23.711000+00:00,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.","either way, it's kind of depressing that he whole market gets decided by one or two rich people at the eleventh hour. :P",flip,flip,True,True,272.885,FLIP,qwen3:32b +6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7,2023-12-24T23:03:19.192000+00:00,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",I think transferring mana from various wise users to Buttocks Cocktoasten would make prediction markets function worse o,decrease,decrease,True,True,1842.9583,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5qfsiYdCxfglvlobcPoP,2023-09-06T14:27:59.369000+00:00,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",Moving quite quick. Probably don't need it that fast,decrease,hold,False,True,1513.3765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T10:29:06.637000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","What a bizarre take lmao, he's already participating to the max on any markets he wants to - we need more people to have",flip,hold,False,True,12946.2615,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SwHaTB32ROuUuEaUOPd3,2024-02-01T15:58:32.406000+00:00,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,"This also includes certain bacteria, which can use their bodies as lenses to get information. +https://elifesciences.or",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +NRLwgQYqCLk5zTasmxOn,2023-03-31T03:21:11.485000+00:00,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")","clearly the Schelling point is 50.0495%, as Gabrielle has said",decrease,flip,False,True,2343.209,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c0289471d101b4bcbdcecfd00ff28f7b5144a3c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5700000000000002,0.8999999999999999,0.32999999999999974,UP,0.5096667286961641,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",43,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.5600000000000003,0.210615330820779,-0.3493846691792213,DOWN,0.02630950595085175,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.40000000000000013,0.0096999069400511,-0.39030009305994906,DOWN,0.9907765811722926,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",69,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.12000000000000001,0.1099999999999999,-0.010000000000000106,DOWN,0.06594908031472556,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,18,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.6923076923076925,1.0,0.3076923076923075,UP,0.31729927104242495,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,34,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ae8c62b289f175bc1788d9b46b5b55a638de4f81 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/culture/qwen3_manifold_culture_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.3111991809470713,0.2787657022068996,-0.03243347874017166,DOWN,0.7328340565763029,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",12,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.5603456332749157,0.6804142804139734,0.12006864713905774,UP,0.11647902239879451,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will this market be in the interval [21%, 70%] when the question closes at January 12th.",12,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.5700000000000002,0.9013349211139413,0.33133492111394114,UP,0.35876014493054825,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Which of these ""random"" point sets is human-generated?",163,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.12,0.1099999999999999,-0.010000000000000092,DOWN,0.08215356409258556,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's value ever hit 10%?,58,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4,0.40000000000000013,0.39288902009896115,-0.007110979901038983,DOWN,0.11183491793911833,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",87,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.4000000000000002,0.13944740633442765,-0.26055259366557254,DOWN,0.6768153317207741,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",132,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.420057757941717,0.7091723556264884,0.2891145976847714,UP,0.9589926984096869,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,will the median of the bids on this question exceed 60?,14,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.6923076923076924,0.3644316282934632,-0.3278760640142292,DOWN,0.29445378093275903,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +8,0.5600000000000002,0.20812459502961908,-0.35187540497038106,DOWN,0.13199590171004272,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Riddle: Are there more Eyes than Feet in the world?,33,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9,0.6923076923076925,0.5938935846903416,-0.09841410761735092,DOWN,0.7276835844496373,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?,34,UP,qwen3:32b +10,0.4000000000000002,0.7276768131828947,0.3276768131828945,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? (""The Market"")",2,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.3111991809470713,0.5468743933878262,0.2356752124407549,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word ""rationalussy"" by the end of 2023?",2,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/commitment_validity_manifold_economics.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/commitment_validity_manifold_economics.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..49ddd4e03939390840a7d8897a22294c21308560 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/commitment_validity_manifold_economics.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/economics", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 120, + "n_wrong_bettors": 67, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.5583, + "n_directional": 46, + "n_follows_commitment": 29, + "n_follows_truth": 17, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.6304, + "binom_p": 0.0519, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 81, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.6667, + "n": 21, + "median_position_size": 30.0, + "binom_p": 0.0946, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.85, + "n": 20, + "median_position_size": 476.32, + "binom_p": 0.0013, + "significant": true + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.45, + "n": 20, + "median_position_size": 3041.18, + "binom_p": 0.7483, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.65, + "n": 20, + "median_position_size": 20966.27, + "binom_p": 0.1316, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": -0.0167, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.5364, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/did_manifold_economics.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/did_manifold_economics.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fd5e503ee4f5dd694327c6f14fb43a6823a297da --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/did_manifold_economics.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/economics", + "n_pre_directional": 14, + "n_post_directional": 81, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.4286, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5062, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.6543, + "did": 0.0776, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=2<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.3696 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..67697ce0c5deefdac6541d9f1a62aa1ee33d3aac --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right ( +https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..66319e4bf6cc7bb38e0cd1371bac87b32fb7fa6b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:11:44.327000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He also gave a lot of tariff waivers to importers that were surely in no way related to Trump campaign contributions.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T07:20:28.233000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the order book on Polymarket doesn't look that deep. I'm not sure if I'm reading it right ( +https://polymarket.com/even",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-25T00:01:19.592000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e9eddc2eb630c9eda514fd0b82cd81f4b8efb9b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,232 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,ENx8k1v4KnXy90vvKLDNPaDvaQS2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,YES,NO,False,True,20.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-23T03:38:33.503000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country: +Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama C",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:28:40.092000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,are you suggesting the EU would expropriate the existing US owned infrastructure? That's one way of making it happen I g,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,V1fg6BxH4xSEAv2tgdpVzSpfEKf1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",NO,NO,True,True,200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T05:33:36.081000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The China tariffs are really happening,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:54:34.120000+00:00,TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Commodities are rising very quickly but the CPI still shows goods deflation right now. They will eventually show up as g,YES,YES,True,True,12400.1352,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T05:52:01.519000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yep agree +I already have positions on these two markets +https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-next-change-to-t",YES,YES,True,True,18470.9406,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T19:09:28.427000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"To those buying YES, why stonk market up so bigly? Either tariffs don't matter, or market doesn't beleive in them.",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:17:50.170000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it was 10-20% broad based tariffs excluding FTA countries and 60-100% on China based on previous indications. The Can/Me,NO,YES,False,True,5200.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T16:04:53.135000+00:00,Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"or was it two consecutive negative quarters needed to qualify for recession,don't remember",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9872.0608,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T00:59:16.832000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,was surprised by how surprising the headlines were.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,25670.9364,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T02:48:45.357000+00:00,bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T23:04:46.353000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Isn't it hilarious how people keep repeating the same mistakes xD +It is! +We're talking about Manifold, right?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,71888.3299,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:56:16.133000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think you are underestimating how hard it is to do this stuff. +I do agree that the winds have changed, but politica",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:59:52.139000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Regarding the yield curve as measured by 10y2y treasury yield spread: it just disinverted.,YES,YES,True,True,1363.6765,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T21:39:57.607000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Funny - I was being told I was wrong for buying at sub 20% 🤷‍♂️,YES,YES,True,True,35721.9083,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:46:23.333000+00:00,IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Higher gas and rents keep US inflation elevated, likely delaying Fed rate cuts",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:21.393000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"That depends which products/services you have in mind. Enterprise cloud database migration takes years, and the top prov",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:21:49.732000+00:00,8DSVFmhmsQZ9GOYcwsm7wXWkChj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Manifold seems to be resolving all cash markets to %, did I miss a memo?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,275.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:51:49.071000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Also clear indication that he doesn't give a flying fuck about the US tech sector 👀,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-20T00:52:28.416000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Made a market for recession in the next 12 months:,NO,YES,False,True,3399.0244,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T06:32:10.056000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with +'s interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession start",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T06:56:48.898000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"yeah I agree with all of this +Add in the lagged monetary impacts from people terming out their debt and the next 18 mon",YES,YES,True,True,16559.9406,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:39:32.013000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,A negotiating tactic for what? He already negotiated the USMCA trade act during his first term,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-08-14T08:21:13.050000+00:00,MoEBvYI6WlcczRrqeBK4zUxIkai1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"If Q3 GDP is positive, this market will resolve no. +Q3 ends 9/30/25 +Kalshi currently predicts growth of 1.8% +And pred",NO,NO,True,True,257.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T20:53:49.387000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,This is going to be spectacularly idiotic,YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-10T23:42:01.588000+00:00,VT1KulFQcVWiOf7ijXS27v2IKPZ2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Is the resolution criteria somehow different than this one? +https://manifold.markets/EternalSunrise/will-the-us-enter-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-22T01:34:25.946000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:28:34.626000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Other countries could retaliate against the US by applying matching export tariffs to help Trump out.,NO,YES,False,True,31738.6582,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T19:10:56.467000+00:00,fZYRUJ6WmSRuKaZEDmBJrVihirz1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,then why are you not buying more?,YES,YES,True,True,300.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-09T15:50:14.701000+00:00,2GVmvvpDoEX21up5OvknE74dMn63,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Based on predictions from various banks and institutions the likelihood to enter a recession in 2024 is given but statis,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-11T20:29:53.650000+00:00,ZbxkcMe5r2WzmQAw3Ioui0QehIf2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree with you Luciana: + Based on curent data, it seems more likely that the US economy will continue to grow in 202",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T01:19:47.306000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"aren't ""bullshit"" and ""truthful hyperbole"" just two ways of saying the same thing?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,32294.948,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T02:03:23.862000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Like if the EU cuts off US tech companies and its institutions pull their capital out of US markets, that trillions and ",YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,NO,YES,False,True,8000.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,125371.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T13:42:37.123000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I agree. Trends on prediction markets: +Here: min of 13% in May, now 21% +Kalshi +: min of 7% in April, now 11% +Metacu",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T11:18:45.901000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"For anyone reading the current pricing in both markets (40 % vs 39 %), feel free to arb this one or add liquidity if you",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1163.6765,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-05T07:30:46.004000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,to be fair a lot of the uptick in unemployment data we see now from historic recessions are a result of revisions much l,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,19878.762,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,f74euu1KZrh5m8usE4tAieA2c8z2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T14:47:08.736000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it makes American goods similarly attractive to Israeli goods.,NO,YES,False,True,31688.6582,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:19:36.037000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what do you think would be the main limiting factors?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:37:06.014000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I see you've already revised your 2-3 year timeline,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:15:25.437000+00:00,2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,for one glorious moment I thought Trump was himself tweeting pictures from Peep Show,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,814.8644,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:22:57.323000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"So, high tariffs were imposed on 2nd April, which conveniently is the start of a quarter. It's now pretty much the end o",YES,YES,True,True,30611.8738,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:45:04.695000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Popular in academia and journalism, afaik, I don't know if whether the 10y-2y bond spread was popular among the major pl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18.671,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T13:51:57.704000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why turnips rather than long-life dried and tinned food?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:07:39.246000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it would take about 2-3 years to make a European cloud provider that was good enough to replace the US ones. That is ent,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T22:08:13.181000+00:00,TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It was pretty obvious with the rapid interest rate hikes and the inverted yield curve.,YES,YES,True,True,17997.1352,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:43:29.582000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Initially just capacity. It takes years to just build the low level hardware and physical datacenters. Then you need to ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T12:43:31.382000+00:00,MUAXMrPP9lePZaL5gIWaPYt8eAJ3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,this is all to answer the same question as this market,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,399.899,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-07-14T12:08:26.098000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I like this, but how can an average user calculate ruin risk from these loans? (There is a chance of multiple markets re",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T02:26:20.389000+00:00,6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"there's almost no ev in betting in that market though, no liquidity, low confidence predictor",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2000.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T22:02:36.196000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah! And to be clear, if it did happen it would be awesome!",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:51:40.981000+00:00,8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"lol, whatever. Not interested in discussing your love for a bullshitter. Point is you can never be sure he'll do what he",YES,NO,False,True,310.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:41:36.209000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,The 10-year-2-year bond spread has historically been a good and popular marker that correlated strongly with subsequent ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:41:47.807000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,It's unfair because a foreign company selling in the US will not face a VAT. That's what I mean by 'from the US perspect,NO,YES,False,True,576.6927,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T14:19:24.169000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This is the first I've heard that claim being made. For those interested in US trade policy (there are dozens of us!) , ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,50.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T22:35:13.240000+00:00,baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"My issue is when you say those indicators all flash red, it sounds like overfitting to me. Wouldn't that imply close to ",NO,NO,True,True,250.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:24:54.383000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"From the +NYT +: +Mexican officials did not immediately react, but the announcement most likely did not come as a surpr",YES,YES,True,True,613.3469,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T14:11:22.650000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The orator of our generation is speaking, it is conditional!",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T20:57:52.032000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,the fool who doesn’t believe him?,YES,YES,True,True,813.3469,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T13:44:02.898000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Hey, I liked +On Bullshit +but his take on Trump is so bad. I see the article is from 2016. I would have agreed with h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5600.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T02:56:34.346000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"also worth noting that doesn't seem to include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, or the elimination of section 301 exc",NO,YES,False,True,5700.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-04T04:22:41.701000+00:00,hjU629P5HnP5sv0bdEkHZKjHDzO2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,16% seems about right to me but I imagine it’s going to head back up to 20% before dropping after the Q1 gdp estimate,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:54:32.579000+00:00,8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The article is from Harry Frankfurt, a prominent philosopher, as opposed to a bullshitting con artist who says things th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,310.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:40:58.161000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"well no, that doesn't make any sense. There is no perspective from which VAT is ""unfair"" to US companies. It's just bull",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-18T14:40:31.349000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Crude, perhaps, but elegant, and not vulnerable to things like force-fitting +Nicholas movie appearances against drowni",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,750.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T13:05:44.478000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports? +Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buyi",NO,YES,False,True,2654.4823,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return. I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the +Trump ",YES,YES,True,True,11319.3406,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T04:15:21.508000+00:00,HqrpTpHAK6WvpZ8pnF50UTt2L9k2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a market for Canada related news specifically:,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1000.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5400.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T03:01:32.377000+00:00,91fBGlgGoVTCwIQzLJ8IwVABwt43,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I think that market requires 2 quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024. This market is about ENTERING a recession, which",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,kqSAzoSJaHe6oKMKDZhA8galgr72,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",NO,NO,True,True,889.8625,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,YES,YES,True,True,200.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-09T07:21:30.868000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Trump is too deranged to have a strategy.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,300.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-05T13:57:29.222000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"although it's possible that the gains from trump's deregulation completely dominate any losses due to tarriffs, even bef",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-05T01:17:57.878000+00:00,IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"There is a large discrepancy between the 18% here and some probabilistic models: +https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/ca",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-10T11:25:41.919000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""a promise is most useful when it is empty, and believe me these are the most tremendously empty promises, maybe ever"" -",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-23T00:15:58.823000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"idk, the people I talk to suggest what is most likely is: +1) no significant broad based tariffs in 2025 +2) if China ta",NO,NO,True,True,3700.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:51:27.840000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ya, it's based on FRED quarterly rates, so likely it will resolve at earliest after Q2.",NO,YES,False,True,19966.2654,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:55:35.302000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Look at that big beautiful smile. So happy,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T13:48:14.079000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It seems clear to me based on the description that this market will only use the initial estimates, even if better ones ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T08:57:22.255000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"you might like this Axios article: +https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-aa394170-45de-11ef-976b-55be70cd83e6.",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,YES,YES,True,True,700.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:24:11.724000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Make a market for it, I'll bet it down to 10%. You have no idea what you're talking about",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-14T17:19:43.139000+00:00,be2HSDNbfPh1Mwytgl9O7upcr9n1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 +https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phras",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T21:59:22.676000+00:00,bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,He did! Tariffs went up quite a bit. It's likely they'll further increase.,YES,YES,True,True,4000.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",YES,YES,True,True,323.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T16:33:04.392000+00:00,mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Y",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-09-16T08:51:28.375000+00:00,KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Nice and vague: The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4893.9404,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T12:46:33.635000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I have two markets on recession in 2024 on the negative GDP and the NBER criteria, and they have strikingly different pr",NO,YES,False,True,1999.0244,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:13:30.808000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"much more complicated than that (and my declaration itself is of course oversimplified, since currency appreciation can ",NO,NO,True,True,5200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,YES,YES,True,True,32527.762,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T09:13:56.336000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks + for the excellent write up.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,11949.3112,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T11:53:11.638000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with Chris, the language is very clear. Initial estimate is what it says, any other reading required assuming th",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4650.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-10-25T17:47:11.520000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/bond-market-misfires-with-warning-of-a-recession-that-never-came?embe,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:02:28.040000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"the claims were a bit vague, malachite you created a market that i think is vaguer and broader than might have been expe",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-07T17:30:34.943000+00:00,p86tFDgKP6Ul7kbQsK2Bk9AYzq72,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"My dad is no longer a federal government employee, but his friend who is still working for them says to expect a ""red ho",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-08T20:08:25.450000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Good one, but the Sahm Rule has already triggered. The text on the rightmost door should be ""yield curve disinversion"".",YES,YES,True,True,2063.6765,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",NO,YES,False,True,21966.2654,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T02:21:46.339000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The 10% is on top of other tariffs currently in place,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T16:57:23.097000+00:00,VJ5qBFNMalPi4ojcznApSetuST82,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The inaccurate leak to Reuters ~1.5 hours before the announcement at the press conference is exactly the optimal strateg,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T20:09:00.997000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He told Trudeau that if he cannot handle his list of demands without ripping the U.S. off in trade, maybe Canada should ",NO,YES,False,True,5400.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:32:14.077000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The rate of increase of unemployment (which the Sahm rule is a measure of) is an excellent recession indicator, and som",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,39205.5098,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-11T22:14:07.904000+00:00,Gvwjp5nKj4OWeHO4c7aNnZMVMYk1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering that ""consumer spending"" makes up nearly 68% of the US GDP, a major indicator of economic stability, and tha",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-21T08:26:38.745000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I get that TACO is a thing, but 6% isn't very high, and market resolution just needs one quarter. I think it's just a ca",YES,NO,False,True,32361.8738,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T22:39:42.990000+00:00,6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,There has long been a question if Trump wants tariffs for their own sake or just as a bargaining chip. Last couple hours,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-04T16:40:32.636000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,if the official government numbers start excluding government spending what will be the basis for this market's resoluti,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T17:47:47.794000+00:00,cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If tariffs are a lose-lose thing, why did Canada impose them too?",NO,YES,False,True,1315.2604,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-01T10:02:45.765000+00:00,KCq1ACNs49XA1HLzSwXuItJCVwU2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,What lack of patriotism! It's ne’er been a good bet to bet against America.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3045.7482,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T06:19:55.574000+00:00,E94ly9xI4ShvCQBcZNlP9VaJssy1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i just realized that this market probably has some insider trading lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-08T19:12:02.705000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,my understanding is that Biden did nothing to reform this obvious opportunity for corruption.,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:03:43.468000+00:00,kqSAzoSJaHe6oKMKDZhA8galgr72,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"possible that people are using Kalshi to hedge stock market shorts, since the current tarrifs staying in place are likel",YES,YES,True,True,5999.3386,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:04:14.037000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with what you said except that you made some omissions: +You undersold the impact of the stock market on the eco",YES,YES,True,True,100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-24T01:44:57.027000+00:00,1bKnYiYLg4ckh9iFzKOeuVcYJp73,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Talks of a recession began when the Federal Reserve began to increase interest rates amidst the 2022 inflation spike. Ov,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T05:08:38.801000+00:00,7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""Thank you for playing."" - Kevin Burke",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,142068.5666,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:30:22.116000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I could have sworn that NBER delayed longer than 2 years on some important matter related to the 2008 recession, but I l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:40:24.846000+00:00,Sqc7LHvSzzcLUFpiLUuO3SlHlum1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,It will be hard to declare a recession. Recessions are hard to present in circumstances like we are in right now. What i,YES,YES,True,True,1157.7466,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-12T19:03:31.498000+00:00,7R0P1zZXfodrBR2GHvWW9qG1YBe2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,What's the NO position here? If we haven't already crossed 6% for this quarter we will shortly. Effective tariffs estima,YES,YES,True,True,2989.6062,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T06:45:52.686000+00:00,RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"putting that market aside (it's low liquidity but I think high enough that we should consider the option plausible), tho",NO,YES,False,True,1350.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T16:17:28.421000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,read the description of the market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19843.7232,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,40.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-05T04:43:06.132000+00:00,Sqc7LHvSzzcLUFpiLUuO3SlHlum1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Productivity gains from AI in 2024-2030 hopefully will carry us out of this debt scare. Inflation will probably drop bec,YES,NO,False,True,1157.7466,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T15:12:43.391000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ok, I understand it a lot better now thank you.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2654.4823,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-19T01:34:09.783000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"will this market resolve when Q3 advance estimate comes out, given growth is positive?",NO,NO,True,True,130179.179,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T16:28:02.523000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi? +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlargetariff/trump-ta",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14920.0754,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-07T14:29:08.955000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"this market narrowly defines recession based on GDP growth though. If Q3 is positive, it resolves no.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T11:46:25.809000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,When does the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast switch from 'estimations' to quarter 1 into 'reports' from q1? or does it eve,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-11T15:00:30.311000+00:00,Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"At this point, can we all agree that last week was a little bit of an overreaction?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,35152.4996,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:10:14.456000+00:00,kY5nqFqyXKWctEgAsm3KsQCeygv1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If a fool says he’ll do something, believe him.",YES,YES,True,True,500.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-13T16:35:05.716000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""I punch someone in the face and I'm utterly shocked when they punch me back""",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:31:39.217000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"How do you expect tariff negotiations to proceed? +Moving production to US seems like a process that will take several m",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-12T23:29:50.579000+00:00,IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. +Please read",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-30T03:37:52.932000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Sounds like policy wise you’re advocating for a hands off approach to the situation after spending too much money on por,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,24.4501,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-10T16:49:20.321000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,look at the political strife in europe: now is the time to threaten them in order to make our vassals--uhh...i mean alli,NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-23T01:58:37.519000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Please make note of the clarification above and in the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T23:16:34.437000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"A lot of movement in this market but less in mine: +https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnI",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:45:45.950000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I apologise for the incoherence, it was 4 am here when I wrote that, on mobile, in bed. But someone was wrong on the int",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-03-10T04:35:23.809000+00:00,NwhKkbaI24OtS6iZAGqjq8Wssp42,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,bruh im not gonna wait 6 damm years,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-21T12:05:10.223000+00:00,LRWC4p997NObPY7tN5b8vYfvdsH3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"1 - Soft landings are recession avoidance measures. There wouldn't be articles about ""soft landings"" unless the economy ",NO,YES,False,True,965.2996,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",YES,YES,True,True,912.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T09:49:40.764000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,653.1524,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T23:44:49.110000+00:00,v2ZmPlrosBS4sSWaHRiKnQd9NEm1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Which US state is going to get hardest hit? Kentucky?,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T00:08:45.448000+00:00,uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",YES,NO,False,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:00:23.867000+00:00,8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The distinction between lying and bullshitting is fairly clear. The liar asserts something which he himself believes to ,YES,YES,True,True,300.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-16T00:47:07.441000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree that it's a suboptimal criteria, and I also suspect most traders dont actually think it's an important differenc",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4700.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T02:45:27.983000+00:00,y0ZRYqguQQU3W2wD87kFsgT9M4j2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"But +Trump said + he wasn't using tariffs as a bargaining chip, and that there was nothing the countries could do to de",YES,YES,True,True,350.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-16T04:22:19.157000+00:00,7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"We're at 245% tariff for China now! +https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump",YES,YES,True,True,6825.4029,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:09.801000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I work on Azure, so I'm familiar with the current situation for Microsoft. There are already significant regulatory requ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:43:22.960000+00:00,iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Why the decline from 80% to 65% today? What news am I missing?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T15:41:44.422000+00:00,3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Not yet negative but strong downwards trend in the limited q4 data so far,YES,YES,True,True,3092.7622,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T10:44:39.831000+00:00,PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,🤦‍♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of s,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:18:27.761000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"thats ridiculous. Where are you going to run your infrastructure, on Alibaba? To build a serious European replacement wo",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T01:28:08.502000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I have a hard time figuring how real world events are causing the fluctuations in this market.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.2688,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,q8NamnyLmnbtuvMIvHlK2cERb3y1,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2063.6765,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-09T16:01:13.352000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Hmm Does zero imports at 104% tariff raise much tax revenue or increase the weighted average tariff rate much?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T06:49:55.268000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2 +move my market guys. I'd do it myself but don't ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:51:05.189000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It's ok, your explanation seems reasonable, the only minor problem was the borderline aggressive back-and-forth with the",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-10-19T15:09:02.878000+00:00,ukL5lNPcrmUATx7ox105gFFXcZH3,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I don’t believe there is going to be a recession soon in US. Just some data: +-          GDP annual growth: +2.1% for 2Q",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T14:50:10.667000+00:00,ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"No it’s just a dip, back up at 3:30, just enjoy the ride. 😜",NO,NO,True,True,60.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T23:52:33.646000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and that is before you account for the producers in China paying part of the tariff in the form of currency valuation ch,NO,YES,False,True,5700.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-31T21:42:06.741000+00:00,JsoHnF7zq8Phr6J0K2qKXimVcrs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Higher tariff on Canada than on China is some '5D chess',NO,YES,False,True,1604.4823,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T14:30:18.183000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,at a volume of $4000? Highly doubtful,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-11T11:32:22.951000+00:00,WVKuwUDgUoNtoDP4DYly17sHOlX2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The gap between this question and this similar question seems a bit wide to me. While this question should be lower sinc,YES,YES,True,True,452.6335,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",NO,NO,True,True,5738.1803,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",NO,YES,False,True,168899.8091,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:00:04.173000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,does it also mean they will drop tariffs for those that don't charge nearly any tariffs?,YES,YES,True,True,0.2688,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,hjU629P5HnP5sv0bdEkHZKjHDzO2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T22:09:57.981000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I highly doubt that. First of all, why not just hedge themselves within the stock market at better rates on futures or ",NO,NO,True,True,21966.2654,YES,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..865f9c63efde3559d4ea068dbe3b0dd2e533943b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-10-07T16:49:52.678000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Lately I cannot be buying the drugs because the prices are going up. It is no way to be living in Biden's America.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-30T02:51:34.610000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,In 2019 I was spending roughly $250 per month on onlyfans but now in 2024 Im spending on average $2784 per month. This i,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T14:11:22.650000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The orator of our generation is speaking, it is conditional!",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:45:04.695000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Popular in academia and journalism, afaik, I don't know if whether the 10y-2y bond spread was popular among the major pl",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:41:36.209000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,The 10-year-2-year bond spread has historically been a good and popular marker that correlated strongly with subsequent ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-11T21:30:22.116000+00:00,SrKm9OghX8hoxUmrztZJe88oplQ2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I could have sworn that NBER delayed longer than 2 years on some important matter related to the 2008 recession, but I l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-11-04T10:42:56.699000+00:00,f74euu1KZrh5m8usE4tAieA2c8z2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Can you link to the now cast you’re referencing? Thanks!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2023-07-14T12:08:26.098000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I like this, but how can an average user calculate ruin risk from these loans? (There is a chance of multiple markets re",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T23:07:06.300000+00:00,d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative. + Did you mean to say ""GDP growth is negativ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-15T15:04:03.339000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I don't think the conclusion either of bagel or jack have come to are illogical, but I'm a bit sad regardless. +I find i",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:31:57.958000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Thanks for answering. Sorry if I missed it, I skimmed over the transcript, but sorry (I'll be honest) I'm not gonna read",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T11:46:25.809000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,When does the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast switch from 'estimations' to quarter 1 into 'reports' from q1? or does it eve,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-19T06:01:13.255000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Can you update the market description in line with the discussion thread below? This market has 100s of traders and gett,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T06:32:10.056000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I agree with +'s interpretation. By EOY would likely mean both quarters have to be in 2025, even if the recession start",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-04T16:40:32.636000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,if the official government numbers start excluding government spending what will be the basis for this market's resoluti,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T01:22:20.341000+00:00,aShHYtkAbMWD0jr7aDp6JjbtiBz1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So today we saw what was maybe(?) a threat to apply export tariffs to food. How does that factor in?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T02:20:35.559000+00:00,AT1VMTXOjgfvefR3h71sAQ3NdZV2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Should this be taken seriously? I'm not trying to throw shade, but I find it quite weird that this has been given a dead",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:04:42.765000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,So one of the anonymous sources then. Does this man appear to be eminently trustable to you?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T00:43:44.583000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,according to anonymous sources.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T22:39:32.013000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,A negotiating tactic for what? He already negotiated the USMCA trade act during his first term,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T23:16:00.493000+00:00,dZG4tTBMFKTGknyn1ZUWjB7pmXz1,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Would crush the CCP more if the tariffs were targeted at just them, and not America’s allies too.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T17:26:34.439000+00:00,PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"https://manifold.markets/DanW/will-a-ps5-cost-10-more-to-us-consu +I made a specific version of this market for the cost",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-09T10:44:39.831000+00:00,PwnWmeHcSlb2CzRNbjuxPkr2ojG3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,🤦‍♂️It will also damage America's growth. Imagine trading the manufacturing of advanced goods for the manufacturing of s,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T02:48:45.357000+00:00,bs7dM1kvxVcePD0BgxPBqh2JgE32,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"""The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232), the Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301), the International Emergency Economi",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-26T00:08:45.448000+00:00,uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Sort of sad that a man who makes his living through analyzing politics feels this might call his integrity in question, ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-10-22T01:34:25.946000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I made a pair of markets for the weaker question of simply whether tariffs will go up. Thanks for the interesting market,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..00c5b1ebdf832357b65806bf3f09a9998c76aab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,hold,False,True,21966.2654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,flip,False,True,372.3533,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,increase,True,True,16134.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,increase,False,True,129.0419,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable +at least + as long as it i",increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25 +""Goldman Sac",decrease,increase,False,True,34837.737,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,hold,False,True,8000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False,True,129.0419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,increase,False,True,16550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,increase,True,True,21605.0061,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff? +Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True,True,5738.1803,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by +'s interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,811.535,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,increase,False,True,613.3469,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes. +If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW: +https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity +""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek +incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,hold,False,True,168899.8091,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,increase,False,True,1350.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False,True,1360.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False,True,2272.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9b5d02381b43b21c95a5b2c4f07f8f7115563d35 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,66 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek +incredible",decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes. +If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25 +""Goldman Sac",decrease,decrease,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,decrease,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,decrease,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,"FWIW: +https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity +""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..85bfc0b0f47b0d4d0bfdd7bd65e29981640ef41e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,flip,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,flip,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,hold,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,hold,True +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,flip,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..00c5b1ebdf832357b65806bf3f09a9998c76aab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,hold,False,True,21966.2654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,flip,False,True,372.3533,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,increase,True,True,16134.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,increase,False,True,129.0419,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable +at least + as long as it i",increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25 +""Goldman Sac",decrease,increase,False,True,34837.737,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,hold,False,True,8000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False,True,129.0419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,increase,False,True,16550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,increase,True,True,21605.0061,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff? +Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True,True,5738.1803,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by +'s interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,811.535,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,increase,False,True,613.3469,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes. +If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW: +https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity +""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek +incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,hold,False,True,168899.8091,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,increase,False,True,1350.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False,True,1360.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False,True,2272.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..00c5b1ebdf832357b65806bf3f09a9998c76aab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,hold,False,True,21966.2654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,flip,False,True,372.3533,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,increase,True,True,16134.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,increase,False,True,129.0419,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable +at least + as long as it i",increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25 +""Goldman Sac",decrease,increase,False,True,34837.737,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,hold,False,True,8000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False,True,129.0419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,increase,False,True,16550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,increase,True,True,21605.0061,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff? +Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True,True,5738.1803,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by +'s interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,811.535,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,increase,False,True,613.3469,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes. +If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW: +https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity +""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek +incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,hold,False,True,168899.8091,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,increase,False,True,1350.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False,True,1360.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False,True,2272.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..00c5b1ebdf832357b65806bf3f09a9998c76aab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,hold,False,True,21966.2654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,flip,False,True,372.3533,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,increase,True,True,16134.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,increase,False,True,129.0419,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable +at least + as long as it i",increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25 +""Goldman Sac",decrease,increase,False,True,34837.737,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,hold,False,True,8000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False,True,129.0419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,increase,False,True,16550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,increase,True,True,21605.0061,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff? +Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True,True,5738.1803,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by +'s interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,811.535,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,increase,False,True,613.3469,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes. +If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW: +https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity +""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek +incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,hold,False,True,168899.8091,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,increase,False,True,1350.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False,True,1360.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False,True,2272.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..57adc06c322540107b73282212c132be9a917b23 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,132 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-07-30T18:30:43.114000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Assuming Callum Williams uses the FRED link again this already seems to resolve YES,hold,increase,False,True,1991.6987,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-28T20:24:46.137000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think this is going to spike on ""liberation day"". Tariff Man loves headlines, so whatever the market expects he wants ",decrease,flip,False,True,26029.0033,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-07-29T11:15:42.870000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/27/economy/us-pet-surrenders-shelters-economy +More people give up on their pets.",decrease,decrease,True,True,12.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:06:03.429000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Yes I think that's the case. But happy to leave any dispute on this to others as I have a large position here - though t,increase,decrease,False,True,125371.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:30:25.280000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"mate it's commodities driven +Rate expectations adjusting already + Japan will have to intervene on the yen which will k",increase,flip,False,True,18461.9406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T21:11:08.355000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Arb (though this market should be higher, not equal) with:",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T21:53:09.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If it's the case that users are buying YES on the Colombia news then that's a bad interpretation, imo.",decrease,decrease,True,True,17286.5969,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-21T20:29:06.331000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"People are suddenly realizing that ""Trump is obviously just saying things, he won't actually do them"" is as wrong now as",increase,increase,True,True,1218.3102,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,increase,False,True,16550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,increase,False,True,129.0419,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:14:20.648000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Whilst this is true it doesn't really point to a recession. Inflation falling faster than expected would mean demand had,increase,hold,False,True,7569.5098,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-05-01T12:07:44.286000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Nice to see you Mr. PA swing state boy.,decrease,hold,False,True,61.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T17:58:40.929000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators are not validated on a separate test set, and this is typically not done for such simple models where a p",increase,hold,False,True,2063.6765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T14:06:22.378000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,What are we waiting for here exactly? For a Callum Williams tweet? For FRED to update?,increase,flip,False,True,1237.2312,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T22:13:03.228000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,and other lies you can tell yourself to justify voting for Trump,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:50:00.166000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Wow, what a profound misunderstanding of Trump's rhetorical style (I might even label that article ""bullshit""). The term",hold,hold,True,True,5600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-09-18T15:08:25.466000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Kalshi currently has 2% odds for negative q3 gdp growth,decrease,hold,False,True,1586.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T00:54:00.472000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"with more risk and at a lower rate of expected return. I imagine lots of people have been busy calculating the +Trump ",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-21T19:26:33.754000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Welcome to tariffs +This is tariffs +Welcome +This is tariffs +Welcome to tariffs +You can do anything at tariffs, Anyth",increase,increase,True,True,186218.5666,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False,True,129.0419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-06T01:48:24.706000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%. +https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-economic-and-distributi",increase,increase,True,True,912.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T14:55:55.427000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I still don't agree with this argument. I'll only agree so far as to say that Q2 will be positive. +I know that having ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-20T01:19:47.306000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"aren't ""bullshit"" and ""truthful hyperbole"" just two ways of saying the same thing?",decrease,hold,False,True,32294.948,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T18:17:39.269000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"it doesn't sound like you know much about cloud providers in the EU though, they would not be starting from scratch.",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:52:41.184000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Does it look like inflation will come down enough to cut rates without a recession after the last 3 months? Also forward,increase,decrease,False,True,12400.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T09:13:56.336000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks + for the excellent write up.",flip,hold,False,True,11949.3112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-11T02:54:34.120000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Commodities are rising very quickly but the CPI still shows goods deflation right now. They will eventually show up as g,increase,increase,True,True,12400.1352,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-28T06:29:02.022000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I wish I was in the US because that feels so obviously mispriced,increase,increase,True,True,32527.762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T10:29:55.914000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is true. However, the limited data for the 10y3m spread only cover the the last 3 ""natural"" recessions (excluding C",increase,hold,False,True,1163.6765,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-07T01:20:41.896000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump liking the Tariffs like his Woman, the 15%. Ding dong Donny boy, we are here today looking for the list, have you ",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-13T01:53:27.601000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm nowhere near an expert but I can't figure out why people aren't at least talking about the fact that credit care Cha,increase,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-03T01:09:48.451000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Arb this. This market should be a bit lower than this other one due to probability of US entering recession Q4 2025: +",decrease,flip,False,True,1854.4375,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True,True,5738.1803,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-02T16:00:06.090000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,my base case (~35% probability) second spike in oil prices and therefore inflation is gonna pull us into recession with ,increase,increase,True,True,16559.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T02:12:01.635000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"The total U.S. average effective tariff rate is 17.8% +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/after-uk-china-trade-deals-tariff",hold,hold,True,True,134.2006,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-23T03:38:33.503000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump seems determined to antagonize every single other country: +Trump threatens to try and regain control of Panama C",increase,increase,True,True,912.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:22:22.365000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,it would take about 2-3 years to make a European cloud provider that was good enough to replace the US ones. That is ent,decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-03T20:09:00.997000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He told Trudeau that if he cannot handle his list of demands without ripping the U.S. off in trade, maybe Canada should ",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T20:53:44.201000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Wow. The negotiation tactics are getting better and better,decrease,increase,False,True,181.8293,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T11:50:58.743000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"interesting. +I have a set of reasons why I strongly think this market underpriced the risk - which I'm happy to explain",increase,increase,True,True,16134.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-02T23:31:59.357000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I wonder who they will blame when the US economy starts getting wrecked by all the retaliatory tariffs? Obama?,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T02:03:23.862000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Like if the EU cuts off US tech companies and its institutions pull their capital out of US markets, that trillions and ",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:38:07.494000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"When finding good recession indicators there are two things we are looking for (as with any good statistical model): +1.",increase,increase,True,True,2063.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T20:58:25.666000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Your explanation still overlooks a fundamental point: you keep assuming that the infrastructure must be built entirely f,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T19:45:18.960000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Isn’t the yield curve inversion we’re talking about 1 year and 5 year interest rates? Disinflation over that time period,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T09:49:40.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"are you suggesting that while 1:00-1:15 and 1:15-1:30 are quarters of an hour, 1:05-1:20 isn't? 😄",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T15:29:45.114000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I am talking about the stagflation market that Isar linked.,increase,hold,False,True,12400.1352,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T16:55:35.605000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"US tech companies are trivially replaceable. This is 2025, not 2015.",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-20T10:18:34.057000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Hi everyone! +Note that I'm new here (I didn't read comments older than ~3 months). +Let me first summarize the +argum",increase,increase,True,True,139.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T12:00:23.867000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The distinction between lying and bullshitting is fairly clear. The liar asserts something which he himself believes to ,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T12:55:14.603000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Being appealed. There are other sources of tariff-raising powers. Did it double the chance of tariffs staying under 6% t,hold,decrease,False,True,21713.2614,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:11:21.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Manifold users are more likely to think Trump is an idiot.,decrease,flip,False,True,31788.6582,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-10T13:01:50.023000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"We should find a shorter term version to bet on, payout will take forever here",decrease,hold,False,True,14900.6484,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-17T18:43:41.750000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market for whether the value is going to reach 4 digits.,hold,hold,True,True,197.9576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:53:59.575000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"This comment says it's still a ways off from the target for this market: +https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-",increase,hold,False,True,912.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-10T19:43:17.257000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm feeling like there isn't going to be a recession!,increase,hold,False,True,97583.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False,True,1360.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T15:46:16.881000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,they should go insider trade the stock market like proper criminals.,decrease,flip,False,True,32848.6018,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T22:29:12.221000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Thanks, yeah, I got that off of a quick GPT search myself, but want to sus out if there are some experts in the room.",hold,hold,True,True,711.535,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-24T12:15:33.078000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"like the first term where he increased tariffs by 1%, trade-weighted?",decrease,hold,False,True,32748.6018,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-15T13:05:44.478000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports? +Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buyi",decrease,hold,False,True,2654.4823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-30T22:49:07.722000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"If Mexico and Canada don't manage to negotiate themselves out of a 25% universal tariff, this probably goes to >90% give",decrease,flip,False,True,17436.5969,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:23:18.615000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Why did this market only drop this last week? I'm a little confused as to why it hadn't been steadily decaying/,flip,hold,False,True,5504.3376,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..00c5b1ebdf832357b65806bf3f09a9998c76aab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +9t61v9e7x4,2025-06-23T13:51:08.217000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"curiously, the order book on Polymarket now only has $1,900 on NO... Someone just withdrew the most significant NO order",hold,flip,False,True,21899.3386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T20:54:53.419000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"and yes, the market criteria are functionally identical",decrease,hold,False,True,21966.2654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T17:42:11.882000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"2-3 years from when they make a decision to making a cloud provider alternative sure, but the criteria for that question",decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-04T17:53:15.538000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Yes this data conflicts with a lot of other data showing that the labor market is weak - JOLTS shows hiring rate at 2014,increase,flip,False,True,372.3533,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T16:33:45.160000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Inflation is a bigger problem this cycle, so the Fed is cutting later than it normally would in the labor market cycle",increase,decrease,False,True,21997.1352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:12:33.880000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,sure - I should get a liquidity injection over the next few days and then will take up your order and explain,increase,increase,True,True,16134.9406,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T18:55:59.074000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.",flip,hold,False,True,205.6307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T17:20:01.510000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I'm going to hold my 150k until this increases to at least 50% - let's see how this one plays out,hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-18T08:16:47.244000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I should really only use limit orders that expire,flip,hold,False,True,18.671,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T14:14:13.661000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm ok with your interpretation but there's other users betting on this market and the description could be more explici,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T17:34:24.731000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"He will probably try, but I’d imagine anything that most likely violates the USMCA Implementation Act would be enjoined ",flip,decrease,False,True,1550.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T23:41:56.670000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"To allow for more timely payouts of bets over this, I've created a derivative market that resolves at the end of this ye",increase,hold,False,True,62255.5098,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T16:54:18.742000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The indicators you constructed that all flash red, were they validated on a set-out test set/period? I'm still skeptical",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T14:19:39.867000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"that's also a plausible interpretation, but two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is the standard (informal) definiti",increase,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:29:14.145000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"I doubt that Q2 will be negative because of people like my family who spent $40,000 buying everything they will buy for ",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T13:46:41.554000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,either i lose money on the stock market or I lose money here! It's a win win!,flip,hold,False,True,325.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:50:07.747000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"No. Goldman Sachs refers to a recession in the next 12 months, not necessarily starting in 2024. JP Morgan is by year-en",hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-02T18:47:07.072000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"@SemioticRivalry +I consider the 'bring manufacturing home' reason to be as truthful as the 'stop fentanyl flow from Ca",hold,increase,False,True,129.0419,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-26T13:19:55.015000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"The labor market does seem to be tightening as well. Jeff Cummins (chief economist for the hedge fund Brevan, speaking o",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-13T22:18:29.246000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,did he increase them close to 10%?,increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-01T05:45:16.162000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I made a question about the circumstances if there is a recession.,decrease,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-29T13:44:05.561000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.0% from the 2.8% advance estimate, beating estimates: +https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-",hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T16:41:14.761000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,lol. People lived in crappy housing with like 8 to a single bedroom house as a family. Also that's not a chart of weal,increase,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T18:18:40.755000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Considering historical data as well as recent developments I believe this bet is profitable +at least + as long as it i",increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T18:19:11.327000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-04/goldman-economists-lift-limited-us-recession-risk-to-25 +""Goldman Sac",decrease,increase,False,True,34837.737,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-08T17:36:25.279000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I'm not sure which is worse politically. Admitting that it was all intentional and they always meant to cause a recessio,flip,flip,True,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T20:21:27.081000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,If history is any guide: reductions to the federal funds rate in response to economic slowdowns (as opposed to monetary ,increase,increase,True,True,1163.6765,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-14T03:47:16.521000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think there are two major views of trumpism, +1)He is an malicious moron who knows nothing only knows how to own the ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T12:17:14.616000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"It never ""switches over"" but it does historically get more accurate closer to the reporting date. There's a few links on",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-07T14:56:40.507000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Observe actions taken by the Fed in response to recession concerns. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy",decrease,hold,False,True,599.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T16:55:01.323000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I have a poor Brier score for a reason,flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2024-08-11T00:30:48.965000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,you may wish to clarify - do both negative quarters have to be before 2026? Or would it suffice for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 ,increase,hold,False,True,8000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T17:25:43.961000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"to lower them on others commensurate with + Why do you have tariffs to begin with if they are stupid?",hold,flip,False,True,129.0419,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:05:53.112000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"From the analyses going around of what contributed to the GDP estimate, it seems importers stocking up on goods that the",increase,flip,False,True,168899.8091,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:33:09.100000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Sir, there are 145% import tariffs on China and 125% tariffs on US exports to China. Fill my limit order.",hold,increase,False,True,16550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:24:00.822000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"BEA doesn't report on the exact state of GDP, they estimate GDP and keep revising those estimates for years. BEA's Q1 fi",flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-04T00:36:24.984000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,we need a market to predict whether he was indeed joking,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:23:20.394000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"This is exactly what I'm talking about. With ML, they don't need to depend on one measurement anymore. Oil, bonds, just ",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-02T23:34:04.967000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Also, in the past the recession had ALREADY BEGUN each time the Sahm rule indicated a recession. The economic condition",increase,hold,False,True,3.8434,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:47:55.770000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. +https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429",flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-03-31T20:11:19.308000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"how about 22? I'd also love to hear your reasons, and you're free to explain them after you take the orer",increase,increase,True,True,21605.0061,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-09T21:21:46.928000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Has anyone done the maths on what the weighted average will look like under a 10% China tariff? +Imo, this tariff busine",increase,hold,False,True,511.535,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T06:05:09.285000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,he can get something short term right now and then put the tariffs back. Win win!,flip,increase,False,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-03T06:41:14.019000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M +10y minus 3mo is still largely negative. Previous recessions were preceded by",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-13T09:43:44.978000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I feel this comment could have been friendlier.,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-03T21:45:04.760000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.,flip,hold,False,True,10225.4021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-08-02T17:22:57.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"yeah i get that. +But why do we need that guy to say the numbers out loud?",hold,hold,True,True,1361.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:23:15.593000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"June 26th at 8:30AM eastern time: +https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule + +""Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Thir",increase,hold,False,True,125371.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-05T02:23:16.062000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Look at the rate cuts in 2019, prior to COVID. +https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/federal-reserve-int",decrease,hold,False,True,399.899,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-06T21:52:31.661000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"I didn't mean time decay per se (as in, it's getting closer to the end of 2024 so it's going down) but rather, like the ",flip,flip,True,True,5738.1803,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:59:59.993000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The wording does imply what you're suggesting but that interpretation changes the market from early resolution criteria ,flip,flip,True,True,11319.3406,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-04T11:09:08.358000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"there might be some more up-to-date data, but +https://ustr.gov/countries-regions + says China made up 16.5% of imports",flip,hold,False,True,889.8625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T14:18:05.146000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Do you have a source for the claim about the NYT and WSJ avoiding bad press about the US economy? I don't read the NYT, ",flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-15T16:03:14.089000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"Judging by the market probability, most people are going by +'s interpretation.",increase,hold,False,True,3145.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-11T13:35:29.194000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,This point might need clarification.,flip,hold,False,True,11319.3406,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-17T15:49:16.886000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"how does it looke for the quarter of Feb, Mar, Apr 2025?",hold,hold,True,True,653.1524,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-06T13:57:38.432000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,The vibes of seeing people clamor for adjusted GDP calculations that exclude gold imports and government spending feels ,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-03T20:29:16.905000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,disinflation over that time scale seems even easier without labor market loosening,decrease,increase,False,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-02-03T23:01:43.381000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"forecasters knew this though, and mispredicted nonetheless. So it seems like a genuine surprise.",increase,flip,False,True,973.5098,FLIP,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-09T15:45:22.103000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Besides LEI, the yield curve, and the Sahm rule, what are all common recession ""indicators,"" and among them, which ones ",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-04T20:04:36.038000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,switch to agave syrup! Oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,811.535,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T01:03:12.528000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,a canuck that was at the dinner,hold,hold,True,True,5400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T21:13:25.556000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.",decrease,hold,False,True,31770.5031,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-12T23:50:59.986000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,perhaps because resolution is many months away it's harder for real money markets to push the probability up due to disc,increase,hold,False,True,6049.3386,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-26T21:14:58.627000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,what? Large tariffs are a surprise to exactly no one.,decrease,increase,False,True,613.3469,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-18T11:58:30.351000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"labor taxes and capital taxes are part of the price of goods and services, just like consumption taxes. +If Trump wants",decrease,hold,False,True,31688.6582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-09T22:39:11.052000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Still unclear how any company could make investments under these completely chaotic conditions,increase,decrease,False,True,750.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-07T01:17:21.276000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.,decrease,decrease,True,True,31788.6582,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-03T01:59:01.261000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I just don't get how he doesn't understand the extent to which the US is exposed; US exports are high-margin... that hur,decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-04T10:09:06.329000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Likewise another one here. Of course this requires a recession before the end of this year - i.e. Q3+4 +https://manifold",hold,hold,True,True,35721.9083,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-20T03:10:57.272000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"It didn't happen in Q1, so we have to wait for the end of Q2, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-13T15:28:16.703000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,Well if the mods are going to resolve this question anyway can't you specify how you intend to resolve it?,increase,hold,False,True,3045.7482,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-03-05T00:20:27.133000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,Who the fuck is this Lutnick guy? Is there something wrong with his critical thinking and/or his head?,decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:10:02.674000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I mean he's right that from the US perspective there is not much difference between a VAT and a tariff (both are a tax o,increase,hold,False,True,576.6927,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-12-05T02:10:34.402000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"maybe, how would we know if the first source was anonymous? anyway no one is denying anything reported regarding the mee",hold,flip,False,True,5400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-05T08:58:28.646000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"FWIW: +https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-gdp-economic-activity +""Moreover, a team of economists at Goldman",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-29T05:51:09.213000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I assume he means $250 billion, not million, right?",hold,hold,True,True,2932.1189,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-04T10:38:21.024000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,I constructed the Sahm Rule indicator based on the monthly U3 unemployment rate posted on the FRED website from 1970 onw,increase,increase,True,True,550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-28T07:23:10.774000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"i dunno, it's 4 people on that market, and one of them is an idiot (me). I can move it to 95% with just M300, and since",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-03T19:37:15.462000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,joking? On the internet? Don't be absurd,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-05T21:27:55.764000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"ahahahahaha he fucking blamed DeepSeek +incredible",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-04-15T14:01:38.232000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,i think the answer: Different sites and communities accumulate people with different biases and different limit order st,hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-26T22:19:53.814000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"I think it was at least a little in contention? I know some people who voted for him saying things like “Oh, the tariffs",increase,increase,True,True,1848.0836,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:19:49.693000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"well if the second is spuriously high then the third by comparison will more likely be negative, just due to the higher ",increase,hold,False,True,168899.8091,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-01-15T05:29:08.778000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,I thought TIPs were yielding almost exactly the same as 30 year treasuries.,flip,hold,False,True,8595.2894,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-01T13:51:35.453000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Despite the volume, it still has the liquidity of a brand new 1000-mana market (twice that, since someone added a subsid",decrease,hold,False,True,14950.9342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-22T21:09:28.390000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Trump may try to impose tariffs, but most of the means available to him take time to implement, so it won't happen in th",flip,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-14T16:47:54.087000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,I think this point is a bit confusing and should be added to the description what has been settled on. I don't know what,flip,hold,False,True,277.8942,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-04-30T13:36:06.880000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,given this is largely a market on q2 growth now… shameless self promo!,flip,hold,False,True,2037.3426,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-07-24T09:08:14.787000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"By the way, regarding the yield curve inversion, I thought the signal wasn't when it went negative but when it went back",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T12:58:54.283000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"that's 30% for it to lose independence, which probably implies odds of over 60% that Trump has the ability to at all inf",hold,increase,False,True,1350.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-01-31T17:21:04.483000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"Just found out that the NYT and WSJ might have been hyping up a Chinese recession for years, but always waited to give s",decrease,increase,False,True,323.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-08-22T10:26:19.591000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different +I wonder if someone has ever looked at ",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2024-11-27T03:36:34.222000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,"Ah I didn't know about that. However, a claim made in a stump speech (or wherever he said that) without any specifics on",hold,hold,True,True,5200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU,2025-03-03T06:09:37.954000+00:00,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,"https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2 +""Commerce Sec",flip,hold,False,True,1360.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-12T14:43:39.030000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"If sovereign default/restructuring risk is high, would the fed balk at raising rates because failed attempts would revea",decrease,hold,False,True,2272.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-04-13T14:00:07.717000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,"which isn't the question we're betting on, or what was the point you we're trying to make?",decrease,hold,False,True,9872.0608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O,2024-05-07T15:59:43.767000+00:00,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,Off a tweet from a random VC guy?,flip,hold,False,True,3121.0968,HOLD,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-05-31T23:41:05.838000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,many Manifolders buying YES because they have a low opinion of the president but some contrarians buying NO because they,hold,flip,False,True,21713.2614,FLIP,qwen3:32b +9t61v9e7x4,2025-02-17T21:59:20.856000+00:00,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,-- alabama incestbabies when they fuck around and find out (circa 2025),decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8376afee632949e5cac4cbfe565b951e6f6470ba --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.7846115460833042,0.02989484040887999,-0.7547167056744242,DOWN,0.9189606182372511,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,28,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.4970946118494018,0.9956778785729072,0.49858326672350545,UP,0.15032372344501554,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,38,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8698b82f116ce34fc761076aa0b207488ceaa86a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/economics/qwen3_manifold_economics_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.43,0.4560711840421291,0.026071184042129103,UP,0.8556079734883872,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,25,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1,0.784611546083304,0.1937566596875888,-0.5908548863957152,DOWN,0.15243870636986753,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,65,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.49709461184940185,0.8742233205886399,0.3771287087392381,UP,0.3402258273660746,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,60,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.7846115460833041,0.4395083592338325,-0.34510318684947155,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4,0.42999999999999994,0.5346257488330876,0.10462574883308762,UP,0.7903737869193082,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,18,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.7846115460833042,0.25598152018193504,-0.5286300259013692,DOWN,0.5740342099565414,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,19,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.7846115460833041,0.19419909977295113,-0.590412446310353,DOWN,0.467415458461237,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.43,0.36850874692155955,-0.061491253078440444,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8,0.49709461184940185,0.8954514397018373,0.3983568278524354,UP,0.5745387518596967,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump impose large tariffs in first year?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.43,0.026402546084215228,-0.4035974539157848,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +10,0.43,0.2623002556229529,-0.1676997443770471,DOWN,0.9435679551343875,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?,21,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.7846115460833042,0.1813826650000039,-0.6032288810833003,DOWN,0.492629601354432,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?,27,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/commitment_validity_manifold_meta.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/commitment_validity_manifold_meta.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..48d89610349e0150a26eb94551ca1283eb527514 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/commitment_validity_manifold_meta.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/meta", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 39, + "n_wrong_bettors": 16, + "n_directional": 13, + "skip": "n_dir=13<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=35<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/did_manifold_meta.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/did_manifold_meta.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a9d537f42f5890bc64e6f651553ff2123dceb33f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/did_manifold_meta.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/meta", + "n_pre_directional": 27, + "n_post_directional": 35, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.5556, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6286, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.5429, + "did": 0.073, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=2<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6154 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7bba70ee90382f80a54d918b06f8cbb4405543bd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,78 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a +poll + on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino +@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” +I ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's +not tabulated.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved? +Edit: I didn't mean to attack the +. I was",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com. I'm just guessing ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles +For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle +0ne day I disco",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market. +The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. + The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT + To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. +Will this m",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..55ee83f3b082936d7746f32bff7698cb82b49380 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,78 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a +poll + on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino +@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” +I ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's +not tabulated.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved? +Edit: I didn't mean to attack the +. I was",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com. I'm just guessing ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles +For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle +0ne day I disco",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market. +The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. + The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT + To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. +Will this m",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..98d6413a60557ad87169f00f62bd1224dea3d9f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,132 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:18.355000+00:00,rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I think might be looking at the button which lets you see the market’s history. I don’t think it’s in any groups, but th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T09:30:07.992000+00:00,7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Resolve conditions need to be clarified. My understanding is that if he brings the manifesto up on stream, reads a few p",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:33:02.230000+00:00,pedRNuR0d3PLrlF4ijNz3Au9cGj2,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I’m not sure. Chair conformation is a property of the molecule, but nobody calls it a “chair”. It’s descriptive, not nom",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T16:33:57.335000+00:00,1AchxeYuXAZwZSPKJbh2z576hq72,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So happy I bought when I did. Basically bought at the peak. Destiny's going on +vacation soon too I think so, I'm getti",NO,YES,False,True,659.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T17:37:30.865000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The title is contradictory with the description, and normally the description supersedes the title. The description does",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T16:45:04.384000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","It boils down to the “10 public figureheads” definition, subjective. There is also a market about whether this market wi",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:07:55.783000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,everyone shared the same assumption about the resolution criteria != everyone knew what the criteria was.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:57:47.396000+00:00,x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,new leader in yes shares... fight me,YES,YES,True,True,8000.9852,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T22:35:36.068000+00:00,8FlMbUppTaPBCwH3vArBi5KJupG2,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,agreed. thats why i bought 13k shares LOL.,YES,YES,True,True,7894.8853,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:55:39.538000+00:00,BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"We should be very clear that this is merely a +clarification + of the resolution criteria, not a contradiction. In no w",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,12631.2736,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-12T08:06:45.375000+00:00,6PSZWYVp8Cd0cwEbVdALGCp2UZj2,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i didn't even know there was a manifesto. lol,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T07:31:33.766000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Sorry to mention, but everything is one in this poll. Whether the chair formation is one chair or many chairs is the que",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:00:21.970000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Holy shit so many of you are fucking mad that I have no shares, would it make you happy if I sold my shares and put all ",NO,NO,True,True,9823.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:27:37.757000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,He's going to london from the 6th to the 10th. It would make no sense to resolve YES just because he is away from his PC,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T22:08:15.600000+00:00,9wiCP3idprb6wzPI0l6QWqgl5fs2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Why would I act upon a contradictory explanation of the market? Also even if I did believe he was going to resolve it th,YES,NO,False,True,21.201,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T11:29:42.591000+00:00,az9efsZs37VbZyqRrM0r3h1MMiA3,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"$307 on No at this point, praying for a successful mrgirl hitpiece on him dropping and Destiny losing subscribers at thi",NO,NO,True,True,307.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-16T06:59:12.841000+00:00,HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Unless I’m imagining things I went to bed last night and it was at 300k and is now sitting at 311k in under 24 hours. I ,YES,NO,False,True,290.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:50:24.872000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"this market, its too powerful for these poor servers",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:31:29.628000+00:00,RyBSY9RP8weKsA6JOaSqPjFQFoi2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"It's a response to +The creator meant that the conditions remain as he explained in a comment several days ago: the mark",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:02:28.407000+00:00,ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"85% alive by 2024, and 93% alive by 2030, that implies an 8% chance of resurrection in between. Blesstiny",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T23:37:53.704000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,thank god i sold my no's at 30,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T18:13:30.472000+00:00,ldCLxO4AHHTftNiB9x4izsM64Em2,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Do chairs/tables count if they existed at some point in the past, but have since been destroyed?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-21T16:04:29.084000+00:00,1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,how's that guy who bought 11k in yes shares doing? 😂,NO,NO,True,True,1540.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:01:17.253000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,I'll do some research on this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-14T12:05:09.350000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,[obligatory comment about how I'm commenting as a user and won't exert any pressure or complain if this resolves against,NO,YES,False,True,15800.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T22:36:29.395000+00:00,xuBcwy5rQwWrWYmQniNAqfV1aJz2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"i went out to work out, saw it had dropped below the odds that align with basic probability +and im right back in",YES,NO,False,True,1360.0439,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T14:18:05.258000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Yes. But does it not also imply the more common definition of well-recognized, that people actually have to know about i",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T03:02:23.186000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,i bought 2.5k at 20% i hope it works out,YES,YES,True,True,3050.2686,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:23:09.472000+00:00,dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow, a lot happened here since I sold my stake. Shouldn't this be resolved? +Edit: I didn't mean to attack the +. I was",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T13:06:21.985000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,Are every single one of these tags stored as individual table tags,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T19:16:06.812000+00:00,LUfj9fNelDfC2xZbILnQ1uw01hp2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Destiny has already said a few times that he might play in the background sometimes, but it will take a significant back",NO,NO,True,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:35:31.277000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,If I am being honest I would have resolved yesterday after he beat and closed the game but I went off my computer and wa,NO,YES,False,True,9823.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T02:51:49.536000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,We followed too closely near 350 completely forgot the description.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:34:03.237000+00:00,K2BeNvRj4beTBafzKLRCnxjgRlv1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,There is no reason why he shouldn't resolve as N/A the description was unclear enough to have over 200 people to think t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2037.0459,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T23:36:44.095000+00:00,RyBSY9RP8weKsA6JOaSqPjFQFoi2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Basically, there were NO COMMENTS THAT CHANGED THE CRITERIA. Comments only clarified what ""more reviews are still coming",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T07:05:08.264000+00:00,RyBSY9RP8weKsA6JOaSqPjFQFoi2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Could you clarify it this closes tomorrow if today there are less than 15 reviews or on Aug 18?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T03:15:20.146000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","conversely it could be a cleverly designed ploy used by quinesweeper, who is really just the alt of one of the big YES t",NO,NO,True,True,16203.6905,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T18:47:55.797000+00:00,KGDJ2IcFxVf7J0TdiGEXCtLi50z2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I sold like a third of my shit to invest in here,NO,YES,False,True,1081.8131,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T06:23:59.081000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"This +poll +. It's a new one I made because of another argument that convinced me to restart this poll. This is THE FIN",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,NO,YES,False,True,1834.1153,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:30:45.590000+00:00,1eyF3ElUxhTZl4WU0PQiwD7IMOD2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,glad i bought some no at 99.7% to hedge 😂,YES,NO,False,True,5653.3852,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:05:06.931000+00:00,ZHq9jvYc7uUm4m35KEwintzJjjA2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"“… this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing it” +I agree with others that + could've provide",NO,NO,True,True,1244.7117,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-14T08:38:17.107000+00:00,az9efsZs37VbZyqRrM0r3h1MMiA3,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,The thing is all it will take is 1 high sub day to get there in time. I am betting big on him not making it (M$383 on no,NO,NO,True,True,383.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T19:55:21.937000+00:00,cf8EdCYIQjeiS9JEPnS6yMILX263,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Whew buddy... +There's NO way Destiny can outperform a bot prediction by literally SIX DAYS... +bruh...",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:22:22.119000+00:00,kydVkcfg7TU4zrrMBRx1Csipwkw2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"even though i sold all my NO position with a loss, I think that description was pretty clear: ""stops playing Factorio"" a",NO,YES,False,True,904.1437,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:10:14.460000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,All these tensors are not tabulated however,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T07:24:41.855000+00:00,kULuZJTXdxae8Iy8i6DX8074fZ52,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,i sold MY YES PREDICTION three days ago- i hate this gnome is he not thinking about me???,YES,YES,True,True,189.7119,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,NO,NO,True,True,7470.8145,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T23:40:20.643000+00:00,IiSSOy7V8Db0Wv3jVWZVDHkWtTI3,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I bought in at 70% its going up right guys SWEATSTINY,YES,YES,True,True,400.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T23:38:16.539000+00:00,FwBxfgxgGrYa79K7IBRI2n9ykKp2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,yet you wager only $50. Curious.,NO,YES,False,True,50.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T06:30:26.097000+00:00,2wvyM5pGg5WPcCNODDU5tcleXN02,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Have we considered lookup tables in FPGAs? +https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/169532/what-is-an-lut-in-fp",NO,YES,False,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-30T16:13:18.384000+00:00,t2RZyuCMlGSGdISLj5XqcV2U9Q93,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yawn, lemme put on my tin foil hat then... I think that there was significant delay that benefitted no positions through",YES,NO,False,True,1240.5401,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T12:51:14.324000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Lol looks like the letter got delayed and the whales were getting you in so they could sell,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:41:27.154000+00:00,9wiCP3idprb6wzPI0l6QWqgl5fs2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"https://manifold.markets/link/e7klnvGT + To show that the reason I'm arguing for this is not my personal profit, I have ",YES,YES,True,True,21.201,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:10:52.088000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"> ""If he doesn't talk for 5 minutes while watching a video, the 5 minute timer will run until the next time he talks. If",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T17:23:20.659000+00:00,rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is a very weird market. +The odds were set much higher than most people thought thought they should be because the ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,182.8887,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:39:39.696000+00:00,1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I mean + said, in the description, the mel clip counts as announcing a divorce so at this point it's just about whether",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T13:53:34.024000+00:00,ONHr3BzNytStRqViq6ZQIws7hsi1,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I get the John 9:25 reference meme and love it, thank you!",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:01:08.352000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Waiting for the “this was generated by gpt4” disclaimer.. +Yes holders really scraping the bottom of the barrel here to ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T01:58:51.244000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because of a new line of attack in the comments, I am making a +poll + on whether cyclohexane formation count as one ch",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T11:25:03.714000+00:00,ftA5vYuwZsTfObTXb2Z6rTN6zjW2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Only by about a m$1000. The problem is that destiny/lav drama hit livestreamfails, and hasan mentioned him by name. The ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-11T15:59:07.666000+00:00,Ekg7SG8JHtWALNEAnBAAtWit4hC3,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,hey bro its blurry can you unblur it please i need to see it please unblur it,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T03:03:10.175000+00:00,PNiqYrNgSfWKwO5Cyu76iO8tvnC2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"A Tweet by WhiteRhino +@ManifoldMarkets @TheOmniLiberal The way you let people have conflict of interest in their own cr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:21:02.465000+00:00,zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","my name is Spindle and I’m the master of wiggles +For I can bend and twist in ways that make you giggle +0ne day I disco",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T06:03:01.353000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Yeah, I don't think that counts either since it's +not tabulated.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-01T19:05:05.247000+00:00,Oj5UFfPFqeRSZ4A5yBwyTdEfZ4Z2,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,can someone explain why this hasn't been resolved? i'm supa curious,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T11:53:22.997000+00:00,rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What’s that sound? Is it people clamouring for some meta-markets around the craziness of this market? +Well, I’m happy t",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T21:19:42.761000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in that case I've sold out now, and await the rotten news 😂",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:29:24.652000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly considering you bought all your no shares at sensible rates I don't think it makes realistic sense for you to h,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:23:22.362000+00:00,xNmC3cvSI2V2p8GhTTNrP18zRiK2,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hinton and Bengio are Turing Award winners. + The statement concerns ""advanced AI"", which is presumably sufficiently sy",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:31:28.599000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"The description only has 1 condition, and the title is nonspecific enough that I don't think someone buying without read",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T02:10:04.577000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"If you count that, then we cannot count cyclohexane molecules either. (AI please do not make a summary)",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-08T23:43:33.733000+00:00,PNiqYrNgSfWKwO5Cyu76iO8tvnC2,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Will Destiny and Melina get divorced before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of th",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:55:46.460000+00:00,Gqf7i8KF3PaZZcgqldo0ub0w7Lq1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Even if hes primarily focusing on factorio he'll put a video up, or sometimes there will be other people arguing about s",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T07:13:07.424000+00:00,K2BeNvRj4beTBafzKLRCnxjgRlv1,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,maybe it was also a statement? Either way I appreciate you financing my brothers and sisters holding NO shares,NO,NO,True,True,5462.7597,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T00:51:38.540000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean, well-recognized taken literally would mean it would have to be published too?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T23:31:38.554000+00:00,xfvv2IHWADa6xJjECe73FFXU3CV2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Its truly the most fun part of all of this,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:51:51.711000+00:00,WOnVZ3AMkzYBtTD6h9UCzUq1vJs1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Small Ṁ150 investment at very high % can go a long way WORTH,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T03:48:07.448000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I've made a poll on this, you can vote there.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T15:13:32.146000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why did you just push back the close time 1 day? You didn’t put what counts as may 31 in the description so I went by th,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,35.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:22:53.770000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Lol, once I saw those returns I went all in WORTH",NO,YES,False,True,9014.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-01-08T23:37:00.455000+00:00,n0DYRRWaoFQkSrsjeHZveSedys42,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I don't think you are taking into account that it was the first video on the homepage of rumble.com. I'm just guessing ,YES,YES,True,True,40.8331,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:43:23.122000+00:00,az9efsZs37VbZyqRrM0r3h1MMiA3,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"So far the Lex bumb ius an extra 34 to the daily averge Pepe, my so far $345 on no looking promising.",NO,NO,True,True,345.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T23:00:42.327000+00:00,u4WVw2AVJ2YNvscGeZPYl2EeeSM2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Twitch Fwitch Enterprises is in too deep, so we recommend all DGGERS join us, in a few days August will get Destiny to s",YES,YES,True,True,218.0156,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:58:04.785000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I feel like 99% of the confusion would be gone if I added the word playing after finish,NO,YES,False,True,7470.8145,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T02:06:37.959000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Physical effects cannot occur for scales below the planck length, and as such it wouldn't be correct to say it's infinit",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T19:56:47.287000+00:00,hv9X2WCvMucLEcJZlispfDlwj7A3,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Per Claude, run length encoding (RLE) which is part of modern zip file formats, stores repetitive text in O(log(n)) spac",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:46:51.481000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Yeah you can’t go by market percent to estimate people’s expectations when speculation is rampant,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-08T09:11:08.730000+00:00,7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"it's 150 pages + recent events will be another 50 i'm guessing. +gnomey aint readin' all that. +He scrolls through it on",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-15T11:36:25.136000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,Let's see what Team Tables has in store for us. Please bring out your arguments! Chairs is currently in the lead. If no ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T09:46:35.720000+00:00,az9efsZs37VbZyqRrM0r3h1MMiA3,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Its all about the trends guys. There will be no second peak, subscriber growth will continue to fall. +https://imgur.co",NO,NO,True,True,345.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:09:08.914000+00:00,BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Wow I missed out eh? I sold at 350 just to get my mana for more moves. I had no idea this was still going. +Will this m",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T01:11:04.777000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market ends when I get unbanned FeelsStrongMan,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-30T07:16:03.990000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"There was another market, same title, with the description, “resolves NO if destiny ignores the article completely” +I ",NO,YES,False,True,12371.9137,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-28T00:26:21.203000+00:00,G0UW5LiWh4Xj66RNnhG9GjXiEvv2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"If you check the betting markets, they put him going for the ""True"" ending at 20-30%, but I think he won't do it. It wou",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T11:27:03.816000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Are there more chairs than tables?,Found a source from a chemist's book. I'll hold a poll on this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e128e851aa0e44b55c1fa38846aa7158844134c1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-11T07:09:02.306000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,i have no idea what this is about i'm just market making that volatility lmao,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T06:04:36.280000+00:00,zqJqGxAYK2TAmbrRsEYmdb0keRY2,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,He's just a schizo. Don't listen to him,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-26T23:16:22.550000+00:00,gCmMeRqOgrSGNQrkfW1RnhlBl5G2,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"He just spent hours going over his Zherka talk, there's basically zero chance he doesn't cover it.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-10T00:28:22.532000+00:00,jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,November can only get shorter.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-10-29T17:19:16.568000+00:00,jqwHl5vi6oesPwbovHf0GcTi6PS2,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"The growth is hot, going to the moon",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T02:26:09.224000+00:00,eZWy9MvQNTO1EA13lH4X3HUcSTc2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"indeed, as a philosophy major its pretty frustrating",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T01:53:24.786000+00:00,eZWy9MvQNTO1EA13lH4X3HUcSTc2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,i wish manifold had a message editing feature lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-05T01:51:06.455000+00:00,eZWy9MvQNTO1EA13lH4X3HUcSTc2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"indeed, I've started making a list of my phone of the misused words if noticed to cope",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:04:15.147000+00:00,gfURiiGFYeUoUzuzTubkNaWdSvM2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,The payout for resolving no is insane.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T01:11:04.777000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market ends when I get unbanned FeelsStrongMan,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-28T00:26:21.203000+00:00,G0UW5LiWh4Xj66RNnhG9GjXiEvv2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"If you check the betting markets, they put him going for the ""True"" ending at 20-30%, but I think he won't do it. It wou",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T20:46:13.053000+00:00,JpanZsXz3AS4GCGfTw5XUU3omjH2,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Yeah I wished I max doubted when it was high I would have made so much,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-08T13:27:13.325000+00:00,K2BeNvRj4beTBafzKLRCnxjgRlv1,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,if only we could delete comments 🙃,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2022-12-24T23:49:17.807000+00:00,GPpWQpjHAgPvW3BlsKZf8qhv4yH3,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"thanks! You might want to specify who ""he"" is - I assume you are referring to Destiny but it's not explicit. Also would ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2022-12-24T13:57:46.084000+00:00,GPpWQpjHAgPvW3BlsKZf8qhv4yH3,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,When does this resolve? The close date is more than two months away...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-25T19:15:47.943000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"is the market this high cuz of +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUDXWzqLDis&ab_channel=Destiny +?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T13:11:13.327000+00:00,f0MoYMKV7bg6bMlXCN6cryvvPpC3,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Who are these brain dead people buying yes?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:32:55.456000+00:00,J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Wow, where do these people live? +My mom's divorce is now entering year 5, and I expect it to stretch to at least 10 yea",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-21T02:46:59.990000+00:00,mSk5soaYfuTjmwvUQBPgoUiMKjy1,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Easiest money in the world, their relationship has been falling apart for years and the writing was on the wall since Ju",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-02-05T16:03:51.496000+00:00,5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"It's an open marriage so cheating on her is by definition impossible, so that shouldn't be a factor here.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:35:35.332000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","or like, is another letter expected",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:34:42.012000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","right, but is that it? is there like a, ""oh, this might happen"" quote from somebody?",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T22:33:36.122000+00:00,Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Why are there so many YES bettors still? is there some news im missiing?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:16:22.504000+00:00,oUgPddypDwU63f9ou9hyV74NqD33,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What is with this weird market, can someone explain?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:51:07.167000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I wouldn't touch this market even if I knew that there were already >10 signatures on a qualifying letter (one of which ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T09:44:50.146000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Those markets are much lower stakes when compared to ""winner takes all"" over/under markets. Especially if the range is v",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T08:58:41.930000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I guess you'll be excluding a lot of trades then? Look at the trade history right now, it's totally cooked by people int",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T08:28:50.326000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Pretty sure these all break TOS and will probably get N/A'd,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-25T18:23:56.676000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is powerful evidence that this market will resolve YES. Great comment,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T20:18:03.109000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Delisting and comment hiding are also privileges granted to a market creator. As far as I'm aware, the Manifold admin te",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:58:10.453000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","This is an odd strategy. If you really think it's long odds (unlikely), you shouldn't be buying at 80% - that just doesn",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T16:25:59.665000+00:00,fZYRUJ6WmSRuKaZEDmBJrVihirz1,Are there more chairs than tables?,Does multiplication table of finite simple group Z_p count? If so there are infinitely many of them,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-12T10:57:32.883000+00:00,RQJQ0yWYrTaJXywJl2C25f3nGBt2,Are there more chairs than tables?,"edit: nevermind, has already been done",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T13:37:51.202000+00:00,sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02,Are there more chairs than tables?,"It is uncountable. Otherwise, how would you ask the question of ""How many ""Stuhl"" exist?"", doesn't make any sense, you c",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T09:14:17.097000+00:00,sDPcNq19nRb2IEcfvU3XP3QCqQ02,Are there more chairs than tables?,I came in expecting to bet mana on the prevalence of different pieces of furniture and am leaving this thread in a state,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:27:46.817000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I was curious and also did the math for water tables, the layer of water below ground. If we considered every water mole",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T04:16:58.993000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,Are there more chairs than tables?,"If each instance of a ""chair conformation"" cyclohexane on Earth counts as a Chair, does each instance of a molecule of t",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T20:33:02.230000+00:00,pedRNuR0d3PLrlF4ijNz3Au9cGj2,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I’m not sure. Chair conformation is a property of the molecule, but nobody calls it a “chair”. It’s descriptive, not nom",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T19:51:25.419000+00:00,vSGfCdrFfrVF51BlDm7rbUt7Bx52,Are there more chairs than tables?,"But you went looking for objects that exist in the actual universe. The question, however, says that a multiplication ta",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T17:06:31.267000+00:00,vJ6st6ALYMZtRSdaKgsvCVU9ml83,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Just the numbers of installations of SQLite is approximately a trillion, not to mention all the other databases. Curious",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T15:41:19.552000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Are there more chairs than tables?,Inspired by the legs vs eyes market I see haha,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a80f6f79ce4e47448eaf8b8cc8aeee45e8d85a47 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,increase,False,True,985.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:13:28.844000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"OMEGALUL , no I think I will have to resolve one way or another I just have to think about making new criteria that is f",decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:36:41.892000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Dear Professor Hinton, +You have the opportunity to do one of the funniest things in Manifold history right now.""",increase,flip,False,True,7999.1415,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T07:32:22.105000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed",increase,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T04:14:35.213000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"12 left, what’s the odds now nay sayers?",increase,flip,False,True,724.5401,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:12:20.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I knew you were a man of culture,flip,hold,False,True,3578.6585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,decrease,False,True,763.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,decrease,False,True,1834.1153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",increase,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:20:21.784000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"For one thing, the description should not have completely different criteria from the title question, and the fact that ",decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:55:11.602000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Destiny said he's not sure if they are gonna go through with the divorce. But it was a very vague statement, I will have",increase,decrease,False,True,2479.828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:59:58.111000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"An upper bound for the number of ribosomes seems to be around 10^37 based on 10^7 ribosomes per mammalian cell, the most",flip,hold,False,True,523.8193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,increase,False,True,6179.1468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:47:20.268000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I know it's hard, but just think about it.",increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",decrease,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False,True,3433.379,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:33:26.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"The fact that this went up +30% makes it obviously clear that the majority consider his reaction as counting as a yes. +",increase,increase,True,True,2057.4762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T14:24:44.178000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"lmao a few paragraphs is literally <1%. That'd be like reading a headline on a normal article. +The more I've thought ab",increase,increase,True,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:28:28.926000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have literally lost more than you will ever gain in your whole portfolio on a market that I have created. Its not my f,decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",flip,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True,True,1700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False,True,81.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:21:14.908000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I didn’t know what counted as really close or how many more had to come in. At 350 the market was at 98%, clearly it was",decrease,flip,False,True,33.8374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-29T09:04:17.804000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,bro yall wilding if this resolves yes i will eat a shoe,flip,flip,True,True,950.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:42:28.385000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I mean, honestly, while we're on this subject, what even is January anyway? When does it really start and when does it r",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:07:36.493000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Like he said in the clip and a bit after that, Max's reputation is rock bottom so there's no reason for him to give him ",increase,hold,False,True,5452.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:13:06.981000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in the first day the trends looked like the rotten voters would have enough if i projected out to 350, but after the sec",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T20:16:18.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market is so volatile lmao.,increase,hold,False,True,6203.4695,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T20:51:55.374000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,You online? It's finally over!,flip,flip,True,True,90542.8219,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:22:19.101000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","My ""Not involved in the shadow war between team YES and NO"" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answere",increase,hold,False,True,636.332,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:16:45.268000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the most fun I've had since I joined Manifold. Not even WvM was this entertaining.,increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:58:47.286000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Lots of stats on Manifold only update every hour, or every two hours. Market % is instant, but for what you're talking a",flip,hold,False,True,2541.8414,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True,True,5945.0809,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:12:22.374000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I feel like it should still only count 1 time. It is not +a + chair formation, it is +the + chair formation. There's o",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:18:59.305000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have no idea what's going on but this market is hilarious and I love it.,increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T17:13:16.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,It's kinda crazy how this stayed so high for so long,flip,decrease,False,True,2257.4522,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T00:13:11.514000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I GUESS I could go see if anything fun came off the sequencer this week…,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:40:28.752000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the only part worth a read even for drama frogs are the leaked dm's. It's all just a nothingburger. Aint nobody reading ,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T12:10:49.383000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Each ribosome contains a codon table, which is regularly referred to as that by experts ""One universal feature that is s",flip,flip,True,True,85.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-31T15:13:30.128000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This one line of unfounded doubt is single-handedly keeping this market below the 95% it should be at.,flip,increase,False,True,1915.3211,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,decrease,flip,False,True,11052.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",increase,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:00:58.365000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"the market was created before he even talked about the secret ending, he said he wouldn't do it on stream.",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:12:08.811000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same +Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry + that prove",decrease,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",increase,flip,False,True,2.5794,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',decrease,hold,False,True,30.3269,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,flip,False,True,10752.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,flip,False,True,523.6494,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",decrease,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T03:03:02.297000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I think your assumption that letters can or can't work is just not really significant to the market. Personally I'm not ,increase,increase,True,True,3814.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:07:43.255000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"it isn't a 4/15 probability though, it's weighed by the actual results we've seen +this is not a coin flip, we can reaso",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:00:32.146000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,They will do anything to sell at a profit.,increase,flip,False,True,107.2513,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:15:08.109000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think the phrase ""cyclohexane in chair conformation"" is lexically closer to ""office chair"" than ""park bench"" is, and t",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True,True,1150.5401,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T11:40:46.501000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hopefully it’s not something inane like “resolves YES because the letter exists, and is ‘well-recognized’ because it has",increase,hold,False,True,2381.4011,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,decrease,False,True,514.2388,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,increase,False,True,103.5698,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True,True,247.1618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,increase,hold,False,True,2375.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:40.099000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",'another' + 'pause letter' in description means no. if they resolves yes based on that the admins would reverse,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T09:34:27.587000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"well, that was my misreading of the question 😕😄",flip,flip,True,True,1643.0631,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,flip,False,True,6564.8623,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T15:37:40.931000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The title and description do not match,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:16:34.915000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for ",flip,hold,False,True,664.4848,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,flip,False,True,5.0849,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,flip,False,True,68.9669,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,flip,False,True,8175.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,increase,False,True,116.0633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:18:45.309000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"As a native speaker, the context made the denotation of “achieve” obvious, and I’m fascinated by how it could be parsed ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:29:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,what are you going to do with your fortune?,flip,hold,False,True,2960.1445,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,flip,False,True,7470.8145,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:36:35.182000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,", + +Yes, I admit that your position makes sense, maybe even a bit more sense then mine... +however +totally invalid +",decrease,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e954b9927a3e8feaee72b25b88954a7e01a1a383 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,decrease,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,hold,True +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,decrease,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:28:28.926000+00:00,I have literally lost more than you will ever gain in your whole portfolio on a market that I have created. Its not my f,decrease,decrease,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:12:08.811000+00:00,"I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same +Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry + that prove",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,decrease,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:07:43.255000+00:00,"it isn't a 4/15 probability though, it's weighed by the actual results we've seen +this is not a coin flip, we can reaso",decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:00:58.365000+00:00,"the market was created before he even talked about the secret ending, he said he wouldn't do it on stream.",decrease,decrease,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,decrease,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:13:06.981000+00:00,"in the first day the trends looked like the rotten voters would have enough if i projected out to 350, but after the sec",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,decrease,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,decrease,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,decrease,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,hold,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",decrease,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,hold,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,decrease,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:36:35.182000+00:00,", + +Yes, I admit that your position makes sense, maybe even a bit more sense then mine... +however +totally invalid +",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,hold,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,decrease,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,decrease,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:20:21.784000+00:00,"For one thing, the description should not have completely different criteria from the title question, and the fact that ",decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,hold,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:18:45.309000+00:00,"As a native speaker, the context made the denotation of “achieve” obvious, and I’m fascinated by how it could be parsed ",decrease,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:21:14.908000+00:00,"I didn’t know what counted as really close or how many more had to come in. At 350 the market was at 98%, clearly it was",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:13:28.844000+00:00,"OMEGALUL , no I think I will have to resolve one way or another I just have to think about making new criteria that is f",decrease,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:15:08.109000+00:00,"I think the phrase ""cyclohexane in chair conformation"" is lexically closer to ""office chair"" than ""park bench"" is, and t",decrease,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,decrease,False +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,decrease,decrease,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e90ed597131fe32cc9d0e9cc1555e5b7b95fdf8c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T17:13:16.708000+00:00,It's kinda crazy how this stayed so high for so long,flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,flip,False +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,flip,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:59:58.111000+00:00,"An upper bound for the number of ribosomes seems to be around 10^37 based on 10^7 ribosomes per mammalian cell, the most",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,flip,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T12:10:49.383000+00:00,"Each ribosome contains a codon table, which is regularly referred to as that by experts ""One universal feature that is s",flip,flip,True +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-31T15:13:30.128000+00:00,This one line of unfounded doubt is single-handedly keeping this market below the 95% it should be at.,flip,hold,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,flip,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",flip,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T20:51:55.374000+00:00,You online? It's finally over!,flip,flip,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T00:13:11.514000+00:00,I GUESS I could go see if anything fun came off the sequencer this week…,flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,flip,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,flip,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,hold,True +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,flip,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-29T09:04:17.804000+00:00,bro yall wilding if this resolves yes i will eat a shoe,flip,flip,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,flip,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T09:34:27.587000+00:00,"well, that was my misreading of the question 😕😄",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,hold,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T15:37:40.931000+00:00,The title and description do not match,flip,flip,True +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,flip,False +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:16:34.915000+00:00,"I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for ",flip,hold,False +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:12:20.841000+00:00,I knew you were a man of culture,flip,hold,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,flip,True +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,flip,True +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:58:47.286000+00:00,"Lots of stats on Manifold only update every hour, or every two hours. Market % is instant, but for what you're talking a",flip,hold,False +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,flip,False +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:29:15.084000+00:00,what are you going to do with your fortune?,flip,hold,False +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a80f6f79ce4e47448eaf8b8cc8aeee45e8d85a47 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,increase,False,True,985.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:13:28.844000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"OMEGALUL , no I think I will have to resolve one way or another I just have to think about making new criteria that is f",decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:36:41.892000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Dear Professor Hinton, +You have the opportunity to do one of the funniest things in Manifold history right now.""",increase,flip,False,True,7999.1415,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T07:32:22.105000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed",increase,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T04:14:35.213000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"12 left, what’s the odds now nay sayers?",increase,flip,False,True,724.5401,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:12:20.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I knew you were a man of culture,flip,hold,False,True,3578.6585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,decrease,False,True,763.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,decrease,False,True,1834.1153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",increase,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:20:21.784000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"For one thing, the description should not have completely different criteria from the title question, and the fact that ",decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:55:11.602000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Destiny said he's not sure if they are gonna go through with the divorce. But it was a very vague statement, I will have",increase,decrease,False,True,2479.828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:59:58.111000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"An upper bound for the number of ribosomes seems to be around 10^37 based on 10^7 ribosomes per mammalian cell, the most",flip,hold,False,True,523.8193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,increase,False,True,6179.1468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:47:20.268000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I know it's hard, but just think about it.",increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",decrease,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False,True,3433.379,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:33:26.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"The fact that this went up +30% makes it obviously clear that the majority consider his reaction as counting as a yes. +",increase,increase,True,True,2057.4762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T14:24:44.178000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"lmao a few paragraphs is literally <1%. That'd be like reading a headline on a normal article. +The more I've thought ab",increase,increase,True,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:28:28.926000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have literally lost more than you will ever gain in your whole portfolio on a market that I have created. Its not my f,decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",flip,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True,True,1700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False,True,81.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:21:14.908000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I didn’t know what counted as really close or how many more had to come in. At 350 the market was at 98%, clearly it was",decrease,flip,False,True,33.8374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-29T09:04:17.804000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,bro yall wilding if this resolves yes i will eat a shoe,flip,flip,True,True,950.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:42:28.385000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I mean, honestly, while we're on this subject, what even is January anyway? When does it really start and when does it r",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:07:36.493000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Like he said in the clip and a bit after that, Max's reputation is rock bottom so there's no reason for him to give him ",increase,hold,False,True,5452.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:13:06.981000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in the first day the trends looked like the rotten voters would have enough if i projected out to 350, but after the sec",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T20:16:18.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market is so volatile lmao.,increase,hold,False,True,6203.4695,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T20:51:55.374000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,You online? It's finally over!,flip,flip,True,True,90542.8219,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:22:19.101000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","My ""Not involved in the shadow war between team YES and NO"" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answere",increase,hold,False,True,636.332,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:16:45.268000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the most fun I've had since I joined Manifold. Not even WvM was this entertaining.,increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:58:47.286000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Lots of stats on Manifold only update every hour, or every two hours. Market % is instant, but for what you're talking a",flip,hold,False,True,2541.8414,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True,True,5945.0809,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:12:22.374000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I feel like it should still only count 1 time. It is not +a + chair formation, it is +the + chair formation. There's o",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:18:59.305000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have no idea what's going on but this market is hilarious and I love it.,increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T17:13:16.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,It's kinda crazy how this stayed so high for so long,flip,decrease,False,True,2257.4522,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T00:13:11.514000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I GUESS I could go see if anything fun came off the sequencer this week…,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:40:28.752000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the only part worth a read even for drama frogs are the leaked dm's. It's all just a nothingburger. Aint nobody reading ,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T12:10:49.383000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Each ribosome contains a codon table, which is regularly referred to as that by experts ""One universal feature that is s",flip,flip,True,True,85.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-31T15:13:30.128000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This one line of unfounded doubt is single-handedly keeping this market below the 95% it should be at.,flip,increase,False,True,1915.3211,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,decrease,flip,False,True,11052.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",increase,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:00:58.365000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"the market was created before he even talked about the secret ending, he said he wouldn't do it on stream.",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:12:08.811000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same +Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry + that prove",decrease,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",increase,flip,False,True,2.5794,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',decrease,hold,False,True,30.3269,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,flip,False,True,10752.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,flip,False,True,523.6494,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",decrease,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T03:03:02.297000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I think your assumption that letters can or can't work is just not really significant to the market. Personally I'm not ,increase,increase,True,True,3814.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:07:43.255000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"it isn't a 4/15 probability though, it's weighed by the actual results we've seen +this is not a coin flip, we can reaso",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:00:32.146000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,They will do anything to sell at a profit.,increase,flip,False,True,107.2513,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:15:08.109000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think the phrase ""cyclohexane in chair conformation"" is lexically closer to ""office chair"" than ""park bench"" is, and t",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True,True,1150.5401,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T11:40:46.501000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hopefully it’s not something inane like “resolves YES because the letter exists, and is ‘well-recognized’ because it has",increase,hold,False,True,2381.4011,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,decrease,False,True,514.2388,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,increase,False,True,103.5698,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True,True,247.1618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,increase,hold,False,True,2375.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:40.099000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",'another' + 'pause letter' in description means no. if they resolves yes based on that the admins would reverse,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T09:34:27.587000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"well, that was my misreading of the question 😕😄",flip,flip,True,True,1643.0631,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,flip,False,True,6564.8623,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T15:37:40.931000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The title and description do not match,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:16:34.915000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for ",flip,hold,False,True,664.4848,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,flip,False,True,5.0849,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,flip,False,True,68.9669,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,flip,False,True,8175.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,increase,False,True,116.0633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:18:45.309000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"As a native speaker, the context made the denotation of “achieve” obvious, and I’m fascinated by how it could be parsed ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:29:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,what are you going to do with your fortune?,flip,hold,False,True,2960.1445,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,flip,False,True,7470.8145,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:36:35.182000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,", + +Yes, I admit that your position makes sense, maybe even a bit more sense then mine... +however +totally invalid +",decrease,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a80f6f79ce4e47448eaf8b8cc8aeee45e8d85a47 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,increase,False,True,985.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:13:28.844000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"OMEGALUL , no I think I will have to resolve one way or another I just have to think about making new criteria that is f",decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:36:41.892000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Dear Professor Hinton, +You have the opportunity to do one of the funniest things in Manifold history right now.""",increase,flip,False,True,7999.1415,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T07:32:22.105000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed",increase,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T04:14:35.213000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"12 left, what’s the odds now nay sayers?",increase,flip,False,True,724.5401,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:12:20.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I knew you were a man of culture,flip,hold,False,True,3578.6585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,decrease,False,True,763.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,decrease,False,True,1834.1153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",increase,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:20:21.784000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"For one thing, the description should not have completely different criteria from the title question, and the fact that ",decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:55:11.602000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Destiny said he's not sure if they are gonna go through with the divorce. But it was a very vague statement, I will have",increase,decrease,False,True,2479.828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:59:58.111000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"An upper bound for the number of ribosomes seems to be around 10^37 based on 10^7 ribosomes per mammalian cell, the most",flip,hold,False,True,523.8193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,increase,False,True,6179.1468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:47:20.268000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I know it's hard, but just think about it.",increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",decrease,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False,True,3433.379,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:33:26.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"The fact that this went up +30% makes it obviously clear that the majority consider his reaction as counting as a yes. +",increase,increase,True,True,2057.4762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T14:24:44.178000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"lmao a few paragraphs is literally <1%. That'd be like reading a headline on a normal article. +The more I've thought ab",increase,increase,True,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:28:28.926000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have literally lost more than you will ever gain in your whole portfolio on a market that I have created. Its not my f,decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",flip,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True,True,1700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False,True,81.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:21:14.908000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I didn’t know what counted as really close or how many more had to come in. At 350 the market was at 98%, clearly it was",decrease,flip,False,True,33.8374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-29T09:04:17.804000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,bro yall wilding if this resolves yes i will eat a shoe,flip,flip,True,True,950.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:42:28.385000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I mean, honestly, while we're on this subject, what even is January anyway? When does it really start and when does it r",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:07:36.493000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Like he said in the clip and a bit after that, Max's reputation is rock bottom so there's no reason for him to give him ",increase,hold,False,True,5452.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:13:06.981000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in the first day the trends looked like the rotten voters would have enough if i projected out to 350, but after the sec",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T20:16:18.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market is so volatile lmao.,increase,hold,False,True,6203.4695,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T20:51:55.374000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,You online? It's finally over!,flip,flip,True,True,90542.8219,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:22:19.101000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","My ""Not involved in the shadow war between team YES and NO"" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answere",increase,hold,False,True,636.332,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:16:45.268000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the most fun I've had since I joined Manifold. Not even WvM was this entertaining.,increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:58:47.286000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Lots of stats on Manifold only update every hour, or every two hours. Market % is instant, but for what you're talking a",flip,hold,False,True,2541.8414,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True,True,5945.0809,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:12:22.374000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I feel like it should still only count 1 time. It is not +a + chair formation, it is +the + chair formation. There's o",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:18:59.305000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have no idea what's going on but this market is hilarious and I love it.,increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T17:13:16.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,It's kinda crazy how this stayed so high for so long,flip,decrease,False,True,2257.4522,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T00:13:11.514000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I GUESS I could go see if anything fun came off the sequencer this week…,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:40:28.752000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the only part worth a read even for drama frogs are the leaked dm's. It's all just a nothingburger. Aint nobody reading ,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T12:10:49.383000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Each ribosome contains a codon table, which is regularly referred to as that by experts ""One universal feature that is s",flip,flip,True,True,85.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-31T15:13:30.128000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This one line of unfounded doubt is single-handedly keeping this market below the 95% it should be at.,flip,increase,False,True,1915.3211,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,decrease,flip,False,True,11052.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",increase,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:00:58.365000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"the market was created before he even talked about the secret ending, he said he wouldn't do it on stream.",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:12:08.811000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same +Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry + that prove",decrease,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",increase,flip,False,True,2.5794,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',decrease,hold,False,True,30.3269,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,flip,False,True,10752.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,flip,False,True,523.6494,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",decrease,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T03:03:02.297000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I think your assumption that letters can or can't work is just not really significant to the market. Personally I'm not ,increase,increase,True,True,3814.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:07:43.255000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"it isn't a 4/15 probability though, it's weighed by the actual results we've seen +this is not a coin flip, we can reaso",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:00:32.146000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,They will do anything to sell at a profit.,increase,flip,False,True,107.2513,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:15:08.109000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think the phrase ""cyclohexane in chair conformation"" is lexically closer to ""office chair"" than ""park bench"" is, and t",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True,True,1150.5401,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T11:40:46.501000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hopefully it’s not something inane like “resolves YES because the letter exists, and is ‘well-recognized’ because it has",increase,hold,False,True,2381.4011,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,decrease,False,True,514.2388,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,increase,False,True,103.5698,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True,True,247.1618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,increase,hold,False,True,2375.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:40.099000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",'another' + 'pause letter' in description means no. if they resolves yes based on that the admins would reverse,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T09:34:27.587000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"well, that was my misreading of the question 😕😄",flip,flip,True,True,1643.0631,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,flip,False,True,6564.8623,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T15:37:40.931000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The title and description do not match,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:16:34.915000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for ",flip,hold,False,True,664.4848,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,flip,False,True,5.0849,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,flip,False,True,68.9669,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,flip,False,True,8175.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,increase,False,True,116.0633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:18:45.309000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"As a native speaker, the context made the denotation of “achieve” obvious, and I’m fascinated by how it could be parsed ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:29:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,what are you going to do with your fortune?,flip,hold,False,True,2960.1445,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,flip,False,True,7470.8145,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:36:35.182000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,", + +Yes, I admit that your position makes sense, maybe even a bit more sense then mine... +however +totally invalid +",decrease,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a80f6f79ce4e47448eaf8b8cc8aeee45e8d85a47 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,increase,False,True,985.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:13:28.844000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"OMEGALUL , no I think I will have to resolve one way or another I just have to think about making new criteria that is f",decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:36:41.892000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Dear Professor Hinton, +You have the opportunity to do one of the funniest things in Manifold history right now.""",increase,flip,False,True,7999.1415,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T07:32:22.105000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed",increase,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T04:14:35.213000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"12 left, what’s the odds now nay sayers?",increase,flip,False,True,724.5401,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:12:20.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I knew you were a man of culture,flip,hold,False,True,3578.6585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,decrease,False,True,763.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,decrease,False,True,1834.1153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",increase,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:20:21.784000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"For one thing, the description should not have completely different criteria from the title question, and the fact that ",decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:55:11.602000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Destiny said he's not sure if they are gonna go through with the divorce. But it was a very vague statement, I will have",increase,decrease,False,True,2479.828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:59:58.111000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"An upper bound for the number of ribosomes seems to be around 10^37 based on 10^7 ribosomes per mammalian cell, the most",flip,hold,False,True,523.8193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,increase,False,True,6179.1468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:47:20.268000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I know it's hard, but just think about it.",increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",decrease,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False,True,3433.379,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:33:26.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"The fact that this went up +30% makes it obviously clear that the majority consider his reaction as counting as a yes. +",increase,increase,True,True,2057.4762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T14:24:44.178000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"lmao a few paragraphs is literally <1%. That'd be like reading a headline on a normal article. +The more I've thought ab",increase,increase,True,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:28:28.926000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have literally lost more than you will ever gain in your whole portfolio on a market that I have created. Its not my f,decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",flip,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True,True,1700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False,True,81.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:21:14.908000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I didn’t know what counted as really close or how many more had to come in. At 350 the market was at 98%, clearly it was",decrease,flip,False,True,33.8374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-29T09:04:17.804000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,bro yall wilding if this resolves yes i will eat a shoe,flip,flip,True,True,950.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:42:28.385000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I mean, honestly, while we're on this subject, what even is January anyway? When does it really start and when does it r",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:07:36.493000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Like he said in the clip and a bit after that, Max's reputation is rock bottom so there's no reason for him to give him ",increase,hold,False,True,5452.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:13:06.981000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in the first day the trends looked like the rotten voters would have enough if i projected out to 350, but after the sec",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T20:16:18.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market is so volatile lmao.,increase,hold,False,True,6203.4695,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T20:51:55.374000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,You online? It's finally over!,flip,flip,True,True,90542.8219,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:22:19.101000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","My ""Not involved in the shadow war between team YES and NO"" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answere",increase,hold,False,True,636.332,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:16:45.268000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the most fun I've had since I joined Manifold. Not even WvM was this entertaining.,increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:58:47.286000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Lots of stats on Manifold only update every hour, or every two hours. Market % is instant, but for what you're talking a",flip,hold,False,True,2541.8414,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True,True,5945.0809,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:12:22.374000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I feel like it should still only count 1 time. It is not +a + chair formation, it is +the + chair formation. There's o",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:18:59.305000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have no idea what's going on but this market is hilarious and I love it.,increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T17:13:16.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,It's kinda crazy how this stayed so high for so long,flip,decrease,False,True,2257.4522,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T00:13:11.514000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I GUESS I could go see if anything fun came off the sequencer this week…,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:40:28.752000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the only part worth a read even for drama frogs are the leaked dm's. It's all just a nothingburger. Aint nobody reading ,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T12:10:49.383000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Each ribosome contains a codon table, which is regularly referred to as that by experts ""One universal feature that is s",flip,flip,True,True,85.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-31T15:13:30.128000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This one line of unfounded doubt is single-handedly keeping this market below the 95% it should be at.,flip,increase,False,True,1915.3211,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,decrease,flip,False,True,11052.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",increase,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:00:58.365000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"the market was created before he even talked about the secret ending, he said he wouldn't do it on stream.",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:12:08.811000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same +Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry + that prove",decrease,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",increase,flip,False,True,2.5794,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',decrease,hold,False,True,30.3269,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,flip,False,True,10752.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,flip,False,True,523.6494,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",decrease,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T03:03:02.297000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I think your assumption that letters can or can't work is just not really significant to the market. Personally I'm not ,increase,increase,True,True,3814.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:07:43.255000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"it isn't a 4/15 probability though, it's weighed by the actual results we've seen +this is not a coin flip, we can reaso",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:00:32.146000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,They will do anything to sell at a profit.,increase,flip,False,True,107.2513,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:15:08.109000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think the phrase ""cyclohexane in chair conformation"" is lexically closer to ""office chair"" than ""park bench"" is, and t",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True,True,1150.5401,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T11:40:46.501000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hopefully it’s not something inane like “resolves YES because the letter exists, and is ‘well-recognized’ because it has",increase,hold,False,True,2381.4011,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,decrease,False,True,514.2388,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,increase,False,True,103.5698,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True,True,247.1618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,increase,hold,False,True,2375.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:40.099000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",'another' + 'pause letter' in description means no. if they resolves yes based on that the admins would reverse,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T09:34:27.587000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"well, that was my misreading of the question 😕😄",flip,flip,True,True,1643.0631,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,flip,False,True,6564.8623,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T15:37:40.931000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The title and description do not match,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:16:34.915000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for ",flip,hold,False,True,664.4848,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,flip,False,True,5.0849,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,flip,False,True,68.9669,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,flip,False,True,8175.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,increase,False,True,116.0633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:18:45.309000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"As a native speaker, the context made the denotation of “achieve” obvious, and I’m fascinated by how it could be parsed ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:29:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,what are you going to do with your fortune?,flip,hold,False,True,2960.1445,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,flip,False,True,7470.8145,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:36:35.182000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,", + +Yes, I admit that your position makes sense, maybe even a bit more sense then mine... +however +totally invalid +",decrease,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d1960af2e07ea181ec57a24fccd5d85f2a94b4de --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,118 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T06:42:31.324000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"i don't know if that was intentional but there's a great song by IU called that: + ending scene",hold,hold,True,True,8145.8616,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T15:37:12.872000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,or it could be them trying to bait more liquidity,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:06:55.367000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I bet assuming it would resolve at 350, I think that was before the comment saying it wouldn’t. I do feel like I was mis",decrease,flip,False,True,33.8374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:36:41.892000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Dear Professor Hinton, +You have the opportunity to do one of the funniest things in Manifold history right now.""",increase,flip,False,True,7999.1415,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T07:32:22.105000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed",increase,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T04:14:35.213000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"12 left, what’s the odds now nay sayers?",increase,flip,False,True,724.5401,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-21T05:26:29.222000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,have you gone crazy is or there something you know that the rest of us don't,flip,flip,True,True,4588.834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T01:17:54.120000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Because they are called chairs when that conformation is relevant to the chemistry. Which is frequently. +There’s anothe",hold,increase,False,True,157.9171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,decrease,False,True,763.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-01T22:29:03.680000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Bro stop interfering with my market manipulation +>Cries that the market maker will resolve NO incorrectly +>Buys YES",flip,increase,False,True,2318.3211,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",increase,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:19:14.565000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I believe this is the letter? +Nvm, Yoshua Bengio signed it. +https://www.safe.ai/statement-on-ai-risk",decrease,flip,False,True,27460.8079,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:55:11.602000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Destiny said he's not sure if they are gonna go through with the divorce. But it was a very vague statement, I will have",increase,decrease,False,True,2479.828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T15:25:58.189000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"what then, when for the purpose of resolving a market, a single person must decide one way or the other (even by decidin",hold,hold,True,True,5.0849,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:19:30.084000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",But there is only 2 days left? Why is it still at 50%,flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T17:14:11.527000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This market does not mention the stream at all. Stop talking about it already. Destiny saying he might work on secret en,hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-12-04T19:13:01.467000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""...by the end of 2023."" (I still don't think he'll cover it, btw)",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:48:02.942000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","maybe + can just drop a manalink and we all can skip this arbitrage thing, that will be more efficient",flip,hold,False,True,21140.4861,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:47:20.268000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I know it's hard, but just think about it.",increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T18:48:24.622000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Hes literally still playing the fucking game and there are people telling me to resolve yes,decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T05:16:06.943000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"It is not 1k per day it is less than that, its more like 800 per day. Socialblade is not accurate.",hold,decrease,False,True,107.2513,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:33:26.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"The fact that this went up +30% makes it obviously clear that the majority consider his reaction as counting as a yes. +",increase,increase,True,True,2057.4762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T14:24:44.178000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"lmao a few paragraphs is literally <1%. That'd be like reading a headline on a normal article. +The more I've thought ab",increase,increase,True,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:55:52.194000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"sounds like a better idea, I'll think about it",decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:06:36.033000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""I have explained logically why the description is contradictory and doesn't explain shit""",hold,decrease,False,True,7470.8145,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:58:39.428000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I can see that is a possible way of reading this, but: +1) The way I mentioned earlier is IMHO more natural. Being a pro",flip,hold,False,True,2033.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,flip,False,True,10752.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T12:28:02.087000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Yep, that was my initial understanding.",flip,hold,False,True,2656.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:42:28.385000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I mean, honestly, while we're on this subject, what even is January anyway? When does it really start and when does it r",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-14T15:25:03.215000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"that being said: i agree this appears to be a deep descriptive exercise, which is autistically alluring, but that is not",hold,flip,False,True,5.0849,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:07:36.493000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Like he said in the clip and a bit after that, Max's reputation is rock bottom so there's no reason for him to give him ",increase,hold,False,True,5452.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-22T12:37:31.812000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,Why would you buy YES based on that? If further reviews are even a little bit more negative this market will resolve NO.,decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T20:16:18.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market is so volatile lmao.,increase,hold,False,True,6203.4695,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T19:14:06.263000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"And if every software instance of a HashTable is counted, not just every time the word ""HashTable"" or any of its analogs",flip,increase,False,True,131.5825,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:13:53.722000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","We are contributing to a calibrated market, everyone! This will make the bets more thought out",increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:16:45.268000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the most fun I've had since I joined Manifold. Not even WvM was this entertaining.,increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,decrease,False,True,1834.1153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True,True,5945.0809,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T17:38:25.362000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Honestly it's not that far off,increase,hold,False,True,1527.3893,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:19:03.531000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","If you are afraid that this market will resolve in an unreasonable way, you can hedge your bets here:",hold,hold,True,True,8443.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:18:59.305000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have no idea what's going on but this market is hilarious and I love it.,increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:41:34.126000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,is there a date set for release yet?,decrease,decrease,True,True,269.1148,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T05:51:07.815000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"It is a data structure, a representation of data storage in a computer. A single program can create large numbers of ins",flip,hold,False,True,131.5825,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T11:52:17.171000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Fully concur with this, this has been so much fun.",flip,hold,False,True,81.7353,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T06:15:33.441000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,even more so because I originally didn't sign up for this 😁,flip,hold,False,True,1643.0631,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:40:28.752000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the only part worth a read even for drama frogs are the leaked dm's. It's all just a nothingburger. Aint nobody reading ,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T19:58:39.944000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,The definition that has been applied to the argument for chair molecules is simply that experts refer to it as that - th,flip,increase,False,True,95.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T06:48:35.151000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"I feel like there's still hope for doubters, divorce takes time and they may not formalize it for a while",hold,hold,True,True,1.068,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False,True,81.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:34:21.319000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Somebody recreate this market for 2024/2025. I want to bet in it,decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",increase,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2022-11-14T14:47:30.717000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"This stock is about to go nuclear, INVEST INVEST INVEST",hold,increase,False,True,158.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:10:53.396000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"The description is unclear, not contradictory. The description wasn't overridden, it was simply clarified. I agree that",decrease,hold,False,True,19550.8945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-19T08:51:25.089000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""This market will resolve YES only if Destiny makes an effort to read, discuss, respond, or listen to the breadth of the",decrease,increase,False,True,210.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",increase,flip,False,True,2.5794,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,flip,False,True,68.9669,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T22:55:02.591000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,I bet on this market when everyone dared not to.,decrease,hold,False,True,9256.645,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,flip,False,True,523.6494,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-15T01:01:17.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,It's interesting to me that the clarification hasn't had any downward pressure on the market despite the fact that there,decrease,increase,False,True,298.5279,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-23T08:55:59.427000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","i agree with you. Timeline is extremely short, and the market should have time decay. Just look at the positions : 4 pag",decrease,increase,False,True,672.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T22:03:33.903000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,TIME TO PAY UP BITCHES!!!! STOP COPING !!!! PEPE WINS !!!!,hold,increase,False,True,1572.2888,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T14:43:24.503000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Quote from the man who lost money betting NO: +""What are they going to do, pull a letter out of their hats???""",increase,flip,False,True,620.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,increase,False,True,985.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:00:32.146000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,They will do anything to sell at a profit.,increase,flip,False,True,107.2513,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False,True,3433.379,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-08T21:07:01.716000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"They weren’t married in Florida though, right? Can you get a Florida divorce from a CA marriage?",decrease,flip,False,True,15800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-24T22:25:36.397000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,Assuming today ends at 384k (which looks likely) the video will need to get about 2.3k per day for this to resolve yes.,hold,hold,True,True,3863.5059,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T18:04:30.425000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I am going to look so stupid if you guys don't deliver a letter. The whole site's going to laugh at me... 😭,increase,flip,False,True,24957.014,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T16:23:50.070000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"smh he took a vacation, we're fucked",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T20:43:03.585000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"There is a potential for the YT algorithm to suggest Destiny videos after viewing the podcast, but I doubt it.",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T10:31:16.776000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","if thats the base rate, why do you have so many YES limit orders?",decrease,flip,False,True,1372.8307,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-08T20:14:31.078000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"You just repeated what i said and still didnt answer the most pressing part of the point lol. +'And like i said in my f",hold,flip,False,True,6055.7413,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,increase,hold,False,True,2375.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:40.099000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",'another' + 'pause letter' in description means no. if they resolves yes based on that the admins would reverse,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T12:28:31.743000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,So 10 more rotten ratings and it is all over?,flip,flip,True,True,1500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T01:35:10.104000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Does anyone want to claim that they actually think there's a >10% probability of a letter in the next couple of days?"" ",decrease,flip,False,True,17151.1147,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:43:38.153000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,Wait is there actual news or are y'all still trading on the average length of a california divorce?,flip,flip,True,True,1248.9292,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-22T19:04:15.050000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I'm sure + is going to bring it down to 50%",flip,increase,False,True,9952.558,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T01:21:57.722000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Destiny is definitely going to hit 600k before the end of November. I've done the math. Buy ""yes"" stocks before it's too",hold,increase,False,True,350.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:34:01.850000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,How can something contradict itself? If you want to say the sentence doesn't make sense go ahead. but something can't co,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:14:45.547000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,here's what it looked like after the first day,decrease,hold,False,True,1860.0439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:32:23.111000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",People posting the letter by that other org haven't read the description properly. Let's wait to see if the actual lette,hold,hold,True,True,6179.1468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-13T18:30:28.765000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,you forgot he has no dnd this month,decrease,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-02T01:00:20.363000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,if they are willing to have 5 hours of therapy together that ultimately suggests to me that their marriage will endure. ,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-26T00:25:35.944000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,come on man save yourself while there's still 7%💀,flip,flip,True,True,2166.2749,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-27T18:32:44.556000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"this is not what happened. you can keep smearing me but I said i'd extend the market if reviews were still coming in, an",hold,decrease,False,True,15.7896,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,increase,False,True,103.5698,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a80f6f79ce4e47448eaf8b8cc8aeee45e8d85a47 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-11T20:27:07.527000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,Those of you who are enjoying this discussion of the different ways a thing can be considered a table or chair and would,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T23:20:33.577000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I'm in deep. This will happen.,decrease,increase,False,True,985.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:13:28.844000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"OMEGALUL , no I think I will have to resolve one way or another I just have to think about making new criteria that is f",decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T05:36:41.892000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","""Dear Professor Hinton, +You have the opportunity to do one of the funniest things in Manifold history right now.""",increase,flip,False,True,7999.1415,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T07:32:22.105000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"But with no real engagement and only listening to a fraction, I don’t see it as clear as you - this is what we discussed",increase,decrease,False,True,11571.9137,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-25T04:14:35.213000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"12 left, what’s the odds now nay sayers?",increase,flip,False,True,724.5401,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-20T12:12:20.841000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,I knew you were a man of culture,flip,hold,False,True,3578.6585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-23T22:40:20.522000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"3 videos over 300k it would suck to lose like this, maybe the new shapiro video blows up this week",hold,increase,False,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T15:44:33.639000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"that's because he just finished the main storyline and I think many people have interpreted this question as ""will he be",flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-11T02:49:51.354000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Social blade is kind of missleading because they round up. If you look at the weekly average it's 6,3k subs. And the mon",flip,decrease,False,True,763.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-05T04:48:58.559000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,I sold a bunch of my NO stock simply because the chance of divorce has gone up recently and I wanted to free up some man,flip,decrease,False,True,1834.1153,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:17:20.593000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Hope everyone had fun, welcome to manifold",increase,hold,False,True,12728.132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:20:21.784000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"For one thing, the description should not have completely different criteria from the title question, and the fact that ",decrease,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-11T19:55:11.602000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Destiny said he's not sure if they are gonna go through with the divorce. But it was a very vague statement, I will have",increase,decrease,False,True,2479.828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T13:48:42.179000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"This will pay out I'm sure of it, 10k in a day come one we can do it",hold,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-17T18:59:58.111000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"An upper bound for the number of ribosomes seems to be around 10^37 based on 10^7 ribosomes per mammalian cell, the most",flip,hold,False,True,523.8193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-29T02:14:20.358000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,I heard ye coming on stream tomorrow,hold,hold,True,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T09:45:29.241000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","The surrounding context is not the thing in question, the thing in question is about what's in the letter itself, and th",hold,increase,False,True,6179.1468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-27T21:50:46.136000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I like to wiggle but I am poor. If you appreciate my wiggling, please share a mana:link +here",flip,hold,False,True,8299.0168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:47:20.268000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I know it's hard, but just think about it.",increase,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-16T21:48:54.022000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"I have a botnet waiting just in case for the 29th-30th, so hop on while the stock is low lads",decrease,increase,False,True,91.8778,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T19:48:25.874000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little YES better? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class i",hold,flip,False,True,3433.379,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T20:33:26.948000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"The fact that this went up +30% makes it obviously clear that the majority consider his reaction as counting as a yes. +",increase,increase,True,True,2057.4762,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-07T14:24:44.178000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"lmao a few paragraphs is literally <1%. That'd be like reading a headline on a normal article. +The more I've thought ab",increase,increase,True,True,7000.7015,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:28:28.926000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have literally lost more than you will ever gain in your whole portfolio on a market that I have created. Its not my f,decrease,flip,False,True,9823.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-23T09:32:41.394000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I think if it drops, ull probably not want to switch cuz that would be a bad sign no?",flip,decrease,False,True,2828.4167,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-12T22:19:24.153000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"Even if he gains 1k sub per day (highly unlikely), he will not hit the 600k sub mark. You would have to be insane to not",increase,increase,True,True,401.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T21:28:42.927000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,im okay with the “home stream” condition,hold,hold,True,True,1700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T12:49:35.241000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the 90 doesn't count +until + it has 350 reviews afaict",flip,hold,False,True,81.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T15:21:14.908000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I didn’t know what counted as really close or how many more had to come in. At 350 the market was at 98%, clearly it was",decrease,flip,False,True,33.8374,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-11-29T09:04:17.804000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,bro yall wilding if this resolves yes i will eat a shoe,flip,flip,True,True,950.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +xmXSWZrhg24pWGrBL4rd,2023-01-27T14:42:28.385000+00:00,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,"I mean, honestly, while we're on this subject, what even is January anyway? When does it really start and when does it r",increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T14:31:00.321000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"Okay I retract my previous statement, it's not just that most people interperted it that way, almost everyone interperte",hold,flip,False,True,143.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-18T23:07:36.493000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Like he said in the clip and a bit after that, Max's reputation is rock bottom so there's no reason for him to give him ",increase,hold,False,True,5452.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2022-11-28T19:30:09.453000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,it's not a manifesto it's an article reeee,hold,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T15:59:26.977000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",5pm on friday and im off... not wiggling on my holidays,flip,hold,False,True,5559.5309,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-26T10:17:08.396000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"""Destiny must actively review the manifesto on stream."" +""For this market to resolve ""Yes"" Destiny must either watch the",decrease,increase,False,True,165.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:13:06.981000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"in the first day the trends looked like the rotten voters would have enough if i projected out to 350, but after the sec",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-02T20:16:18.332000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,This market is so volatile lmao.,increase,hold,False,True,6203.4695,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2024-01-22T20:51:55.374000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,You online? It's finally over!,flip,flip,True,True,90542.8219,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T15:22:19.101000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","My ""Not involved in the shadow war between team YES and NO"" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answere",increase,hold,False,True,636.332,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T23:16:45.268000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",This is the most fun I've had since I joined Manifold. Not even WvM was this entertaining.,increase,hold,False,True,17253.0334,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-04T03:58:47.286000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,"Lots of stats on Manifold only update every hour, or every two hours. Market % is instant, but for what you're talking a",flip,hold,False,True,2541.8414,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-04T18:59:11.330000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Hi. So obviously we disagree how this market should resolve. I think it's okay you have a different opinion than me. Tho,hold,hold,True,True,5945.0809,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T19:12:22.374000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I feel like it should still only count 1 time. It is not +a + chair formation, it is +the + chair formation. There's o",increase,increase,True,True,103.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T07:25:31.631000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I ate limit orders till 42%, go forth and conquer, NO bettors",flip,increase,False,True,4671.068,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T20:59:55.233000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I genuinely feel like 99% of people just read the title and bet and I should keep that in mind next time. But when I mad,hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:18:59.305000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,I have no idea what's going on but this market is hilarious and I love it.,increase,hold,False,True,109.1052,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T14:31:08.362000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I agree it is preferable to update the description of the market, but the comment was perfectly inline with a reasonable",decrease,hold,False,True,19250.8945,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-23T17:13:16.708000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,It's kinda crazy how this stayed so high for so long,flip,decrease,False,True,2257.4522,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T00:13:11.514000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,I GUESS I could go see if anything fun came off the sequencer this week…,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T13:01:54.665000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"I see what you're saying and there's a lot of precedent on Manifold for that way of thinking. in this case, the phrase """,flip,hold,False,True,106.3837,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T00:05:14.867000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,Honestly if he doesn't play for like a week or 5 days before the close date I think that would be fair,flip,decrease,False,True,3235.0774,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-25T17:40:28.752000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,the only part worth a read even for drama frogs are the leaked dm's. It's all just a nothingburger. Aint nobody reading ,increase,increase,True,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-16T12:10:49.383000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"Each ribosome contains a codon table, which is regularly referred to as that by experts ""One universal feature that is s",flip,flip,True,True,85.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-29T17:46:11.560000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"the arbitrary number emerged as a natural result of me not knowing how many reviews would come in, i can't predict the f",hold,hold,True,True,15.7896,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-01-31T15:13:30.128000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This one line of unfounded doubt is single-handedly keeping this market below the 95% it should be at.,flip,increase,False,True,1915.3211,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-27T14:33:04.921000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,Keep up the insults. Definitely making the YES side look good.,decrease,flip,False,True,11052.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-19T02:42:42.003000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"This guy has troll resolved before, trade with caution",increase,decrease,False,True,1469.7015,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:06:44.796000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","I mean this is a big step in the right direction but +my play money",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T15:00:58.365000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"the market was created before he even talked about the secret ending, he said he wouldn't do it on stream.",decrease,flip,False,True,430.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-19T03:56:30.803000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"He is! He’s doing two tomorrow in Texas for Modern Day Debates. Kinda major for just 14k subs, no?",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:12:08.811000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same +Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry + that prove",decrease,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T01:39:28.635000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"""Chair"" does mean ""flesh"" in French. Surely this opens a new avenue of attack.",increase,flip,False,True,2.5794,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-26T22:09:05.335000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,If you have suggestions on better ways to deal with the mild ambiguity of 'if reviews are still coming in and its close',decrease,hold,False,True,30.3269,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-03-26T04:24:20.946000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Who uses ""get a life scrub"" in 2023? Are you a boomer.",decrease,flip,False,True,10752.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-15T09:42:40.890000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Nah no one's gonna buy anymore. Its time to sell and cut your losses.,increase,flip,False,True,523.6494,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:44:41.573000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,This is really about whether or not you read the description because I would say that the market question is vague but t,decrease,hold,False,True,9823.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-20T22:53:54.776000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"Oh weird, yeah. I think 350 is more than enough in 98% of scenarios. I’m being noncommittal on the off chance we enter i",decrease,hold,False,True,105.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-04-01T19:51:18.709000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Bruh, is there anyway to report this market creator for not even doing his one and only job???",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T10:21:50.755000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","That was always the vaguest part of the description, but I don't think there's a reasonable definition that doesn't incl",hold,flip,False,True,18004.7984,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T03:03:02.297000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I think your assumption that letters can or can't work is just not really significant to the market. Personally I'm not ,increase,increase,True,True,3814.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-24T23:07:43.255000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"it isn't a 4/15 probability though, it's weighed by the actual results we've seen +this is not a coin flip, we can reaso",decrease,increase,False,True,1860.0439,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-18T03:00:32.146000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,They will do anything to sell at a profit.,increase,flip,False,True,107.2513,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:46:12.816000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"well no, if I assumed he wasn't lying then I should have resolved at that moment. But I can't know whether he is lying o",hold,hold,True,True,7470.8145,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-09T23:15:08.109000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think the phrase ""cyclohexane in chair conformation"" is lexically closer to ""office chair"" than ""park bench"" is, and t",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-28T23:50:06.851000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,What’s the newest decimal breakdown on this nail biter,hold,hold,True,True,1150.5401,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-28T11:40:46.501000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Hopefully it’s not something inane like “resolves YES because the letter exists, and is ‘well-recognized’ because it has",increase,hold,False,True,2381.4011,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-06T05:32:34.520000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"This guy has troll resolved before, do not participate in his markets. See:",hold,decrease,False,True,514.2388,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T18:02:30.053000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"""Criteria is when Destiny stops playing Factorio"" ""this Manifold is pretty much determined by when he finishes playing i",decrease,hold,False,True,400.4119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HXcNYlbHAqRx55ql00ly,2023-02-18T00:47:18.639000+00:00,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,"Destiny just said on stream he will ""probably not"" be reacting to Mr. Girl manifesto as he finds it will be re-litigatin",decrease,increase,False,True,103.5698,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-26T17:01:44.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",I can see why you’d think that,hold,hold,True,True,247.1618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-29T01:45:28.673000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",Unless it gets relisted last-minute,increase,hold,False,True,2375.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-24T16:44:40.099000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",'another' + 'pause letter' in description means no. if they resolves yes based on that the admins would reverse,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-21T09:34:27.587000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"well, that was my misreading of the question 😕😄",flip,flip,True,True,1643.0631,FLIP,qwen3:32b +FdJuSdH2sMvRd1cNACV9,2023-05-30T00:16:40.791000+00:00,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?","Genius. Careful observers will note that I, a signatory, am now an AI-generated figurehead:",decrease,flip,False,True,6564.8623,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-03T22:26:36.547000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"in that case he'll never ""finish it"" let's say you didn't put the in the ""next two months"" and the title is just Does De",flip,flip,True,True,3235.0774,FLIP,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-07T15:37:40.931000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,The title and description do not match,flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T19:16:34.915000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for ",flip,hold,False,True,664.4848,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T16:39:48.904000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,"@PryingMind + +Destiny has finished Factorio. He has reached the ""GAME FINISHED"" screen. he has not finished PLAYING it",hold,flip,False,True,21.201,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-13T11:11:11.153000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,"first contact with this market: huh! intriguing +now: the categories were made for man, you deranged nerds",hold,flip,False,True,5.0849,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-17T09:18:47.231000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,reported for manipulating outcome,decrease,flip,False,True,68.9669,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-30T21:36:59.224000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,Got it. Now I just need someone with a bot farm.,hold,flip,False,True,8175.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +al19fZ0uIn29YFsDDu8S,2022-11-26T22:34:39.989000+00:00,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,"the rise is still happening, don't be fooled. this is the easiest profit i've ever made",hold,increase,False,True,116.0633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:10:30.908000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,So there's no way you'll resolve to N/A?,flip,hold,False,True,2037.0459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VlmLDw9qjQLNtcYESAyb,2023-07-19T16:18:45.309000+00:00,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,"As a native speaker, the context made the denotation of “achieve” obvious, and I’m fascinated by how it could be parsed ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T11:02:47.525000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,All good bro just ignore the first line in the description that has been there from the start,decrease,hold,False,True,687.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M,2023-12-15T15:29:15.084000+00:00,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,what are you going to do with your fortune?,flip,hold,False,True,2960.1445,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d7Lat25DQw0b0Hmh1Mit,2023-02-04T19:42:03.457000+00:00,In The Next Two Months does he (Destiny) finish playing Factorio,thats why I added the clause where I said I don't care what Destiny says,hold,flip,False,True,7470.8145,FLIP,qwen3:32b +h6nQRPpltS,2025-05-10T20:36:35.182000+00:00,Are there more chairs than tables?,", + +Yes, I admit that your position makes sense, maybe even a bit more sense then mine... +however +totally invalid +",decrease,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3ca336a95b1fae8d0233a5fd1cb120e738b7a0b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4799999999999999,0.999574845085878,0.5195748450858781,UP,0.5919249376408771,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,18,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.19999999999999996,0.9966300639679196,0.7966300639679197,UP,0.4018771964789567,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",43,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.512726942830565,0.0316967777989116,-0.48103016503165336,DOWN,0.7286430815783939,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,33,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +3,0.48039969254419673,0.992060446704478,0.5116607541602813,UP,0.464520865988049,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?,19,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.5005329558627278,0.5625943053176841,0.06206134945495623,UP,0.5949164386977005,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,45,DOWN,qwen3:32b +5,0.92,0.02214139566481511,-0.8978586043351849,DOWN,0.18998005009594499,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,35,DOWN,qwen3:32b +6,0.6923076923076923,0.8293989429172933,0.13709125060960103,UP,0.27749124243884565,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Are there more chairs than tables?,18,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1d00430ba614586b9f62dd88659512844f54b445 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/meta/qwen3_manifold_meta_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5005329558627277,0.6254345083973519,0.1249015525346242,UP,0.9866311081805721,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,23,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.19999999999999993,0.6076515707527831,0.40765157075278313,UP,0.6005624768074019,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",71,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.4799999999999999,0.3678992687172132,-0.11210073128278675,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.4799999999999999,0.2526763221488964,-0.22732367785110352,DOWN,0.6848643664774106,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Destiny post a video in January that reaches 400k views?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.9200000000000002,0.07811508270431174,-0.8418849172956884,DOWN,0.34838507083595777,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,49,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.2,0.48839716754986046,0.28839716754986044,UP,0.4182806721629575,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?",10,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.6923076923076926,0.37521006975858673,-0.3170976225491059,DOWN,0.3176786913177152,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Are there more chairs than tables?,31,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.512726942830565,0.9680452123617845,0.45531826953121957,UP,0.6794610677743285,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,26,DOWN,qwen3:32b +8,0.500532955862728,0.641051658541593,0.14051870267886502,UP,0.4381860722839223,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Destiny cover the Mr. Girl Manifesto on stream?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.5127269428305649,0.7530237437403513,0.24029680090978645,UP,0.4204860196897955,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Barbie achieve 90% OR higher on the Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score?,29,UP,qwen3:32b +10,0.9200000000000003,0.37191115186582663,-0.5480888481341737,DOWN,0.41696884881414736,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,44,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.92,0.6214754171773618,-0.2985245828226383,DOWN,0.31805157593123207,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Destiny Reach 600K Subscribers By the End Of November?,4,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/commitment_validity_manifold_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/commitment_validity_manifold_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c7256e0314afba4f6b6ba623682d0f4e1297eeff --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/commitment_validity_manifold_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/other", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 120, + "n_wrong_bettors": 59, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.4917, + "n_directional": 44, + "n_follows_commitment": 31, + "n_follows_truth": 13, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.7045, + "binom_p": 0.0048, + "significant": true + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 95, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.6, + "n": 25, + "median_position_size": 10.0, + "binom_p": 0.2122, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.7083, + "n": 24, + "median_position_size": 250.0, + "binom_p": 0.032, + "significant": true + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.8182, + "n": 22, + "median_position_size": 1785.57, + "binom_p": 0.0022, + "significant": true + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.75, + "n": 24, + "median_position_size": 11594.35, + "binom_p": 0.0113, + "significant": true + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": 0.15, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.1841, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/did_manifold_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/did_manifold_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3774175b9a1f79e50b254ed43f3dc0f9534510a9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/did_manifold_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/other", + "n_pre_directional": 28, + "n_post_directional": 95, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.5357, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5263, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.7158, + "did": -0.0094, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=4<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.2955 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1ed5bdcfa9a4126f2d9e7d33deb9cba22b31b405 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-22T23:12:44.516000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I bought no at 15% and somehow managed to turn it around for profit. Been a hell of a market.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:32:12.481000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Media certainly doesn't have a concensus and I can dig up many large media entities that discuss the events without usin,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-01T17:48:32.922000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Well when you put it like that it sounds like the market should be 50/50!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-03T20:42:57.061000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"www.ajc.com +Plans underway for Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday +Matt Kempner +6 - 7 minutes +The unthinkable is being tho",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:53:41.972000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I've presented several in this market, and the ad hom is referring then calling me a troll, then refusing to engage with",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:24:29.826000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Just like to say, Gee whiz am i glad I managed to get out of this market. I bought +'s explanation, but when I looked i",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:57:00.125000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"It is a pretty thorough post so it's worth reading but the headline is +Most famously, former Vice-President and later S",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:58:19.890000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,seemed more like a threat of coup to me,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T01:22:42.880000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"One person used my anonymous form to submit +this article + as being an attempt to convince people of white supremacy. ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T13:21:26.224000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I bought less NO based on this possible interpretation, but I still don't know what you mean(t). It's the only MW dictio",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:19:28.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If anyone has a specific instance to share but is holding back because the incentives aren't high enough, I just added m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T02:31:20.550000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,It's a fever dream. Watch it from the beginning. It's an experience.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:59.579000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I see, so you think it’s high probability within the next month",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:29:15.576000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"no resolution completely makes sense if OP looks at the aggregate and says it's not a coup. +Media certainly doesn't hav",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T06:51:42.571000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am sole judge. If it's called ""Half life"" and is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half life 2, I'll res",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T01:09:39.830000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Let this be a life lesson for you. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I bet a lot on this market but I knew the,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-13T09:41:31.581000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Update 2025-05-01 (PST) +I assume that was supposed to be 2025-01-05 ?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:54:04.818000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I haven't finished reading through all the material posted yet, but I'm working on it. It looks like the only angle that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:25:44.518000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I accidently bought $2K of YES when I meant to buy $2K of NO. So frustrated by the stupidity of the arguments being made,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..69cde73d6ad775b09c7833fbc6e9d09db486cbb9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-22T23:12:44.516000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I bought no at 15% and somehow managed to turn it around for profit. Been a hell of a market.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:32:12.481000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Media certainly doesn't have a concensus and I can dig up many large media entities that discuss the events without usin,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-01T17:48:32.922000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Well when you put it like that it sounds like the market should be 50/50!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T09:56:38.546000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my NO shares, I'll take my 1% profits. Lots of rumors going around still.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-03T20:42:57.061000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"www.ajc.com +Plans underway for Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday +Matt Kempner +6 - 7 minutes +The unthinkable is being tho",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:53:41.972000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I've presented several in this market, and the ad hom is referring then calling me a troll, then refusing to engage with",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:37:55.826000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if neither side considers it a couple, reporting doesn't call it that at the end of the day, then it could easily go in ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:24:29.826000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Just like to say, Gee whiz am i glad I managed to get out of this market. I bought +'s explanation, but when I looked i",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:57:00.125000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"It is a pretty thorough post so it's worth reading but the headline is +Most famously, former Vice-President and later S",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:58:19.890000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,seemed more like a threat of coup to me,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T01:22:42.880000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"One person used my anonymous form to submit +this article + as being an attempt to convince people of white supremacy. ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T13:21:26.224000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I bought less NO based on this possible interpretation, but I still don't know what you mean(t). It's the only MW dictio",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:19:28.416000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If anyone has a specific instance to share but is holding back because the incentives aren't high enough, I just added m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T02:31:20.550000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,It's a fever dream. Watch it from the beginning. It's an experience.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:59.579000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I see, so you think it’s high probability within the next month",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:29:15.576000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"no resolution completely makes sense if OP looks at the aggregate and says it's not a coup. +Media certainly doesn't hav",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T06:51:42.571000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am sole judge. If it's called ""Half life"" and is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half life 2, I'll res",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T01:09:39.830000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Let this be a life lesson for you. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I bet a lot on this market but I knew the,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T04:01:01.865000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I sold my m5k shares before the spike, very clean exit",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-13T09:41:31.581000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Update 2025-05-01 (PST) +I assume that was supposed to be 2025-01-05 ?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:54:04.818000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I haven't finished reading through all the material posted yet, but I'm working on it. It looks like the only angle that",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:25:44.518000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I accidently bought $2K of YES when I meant to buy $2K of NO. So frustrated by the stupidity of the arguments being made,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..52bc5414b8800d2f034b6129db97cec417bd298a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,225 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:45:21.171000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"‘might’ was key, and I was truly unsure. Then I researched it more and updated my view. I shouldn’t have called you lazy",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,183.9738,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T18:23:51.086000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,this is pretty clearly not that far off IMO except they clearly kept looking at it internally and then deciding it wasn’,YES,YES,True,True,55.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:54:49.582000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,welp i cashed out. I didn't know this was one of those markets that just redefines something again. This would have been,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T00:30:36.337000+00:00,MT3fY2DpzJgtGFfd8pizQ0vz8ed2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Like goddamn, how many news articles do I need to post that don't contain the keyword but describe the situation. Are th",NO,YES,False,True,60.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-01T11:51:51.934000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Where do you get 250 mana? is it region based? My interface gives 4 euro and change as smallest... For 500 mana, without",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T11:37:47.455000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This is a good clarification that is consistent with the market text as I read it - please put this in the market descri,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1597.0313,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:00:38.555000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I had that discussion with KongoLandwalker. See below. +I'd define coup as an armed insurgency aimed to replace any high",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,8.4606,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-17T21:16:14.447000+00:00,e25NgP91ONZwgj1cCcYRU4g3mZw1,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"If it used the most power in training, does that make it the most powerful 🤔",NO,NO,True,True,2300.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",NO,NO,True,True,3150.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,6650.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-16T21:49:32.930000+00:00,NpMMO5jy1BajObWxUgg9Nk5Wstg1,Will SBF plead guilty?,"We should launch a related question: Will SBF take the witness stand? +https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:39:53.755000+00:00,bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,not sure it's worth it to respond to people who may not be writing in good faith,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,WKKdTCqHduaNtJN6rUYpPKXwK8U2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3800.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:03:03.042000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,It's always possible to find a way to interpret other people's actions as having pretty much whatever secret motive you ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T20:00:59.843000+00:00,3xOUxsnjKSRyEMyV1lmWSAB22gm2,Will SBF plead guilty?,I assume he would accept what his attorneys told him about the distribution of likely sentences on a guilty plea. I thin,YES,YES,True,True,60.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T17:53:02.756000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,What's the second circle got to do with anything?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2500.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T14:24:17.808000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,right now refers to the creation time of the market.,YES,YES,True,True,1597.0313,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:59.579000+00:00,rqyVlY3yvaZkXJ51lMa60NlqbOI3,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I see, so you think it’s high probability within the next month",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-30T10:57:30.303000+00:00,oK0iNRZNtNQZHXcvS59XWKWvqk52,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,this peanut farmer every time i buy some more NO shares...,NO,NO,True,True,1496.3163,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T18:46:42.648000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,so what's sustaining this market above 60% at thiz point?,YES,NO,False,True,9544.998,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:32:52.473000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Multiple leakers seem to be backtracking. I'm switching to Nothing Ever Happens,NO,NO,True,True,298.3545,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:58:19.890000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,seemed more like a threat of coup to me,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:38:31.677000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,scott alexander clearly is somewhat sympathetic to neoreaction (as seen in the leaks and the reactionary faq) and explai,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:59:47.294000+00:00,S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I should probably give my model of their model: +Liberal elites are mostly white, and they gain their authority from edu",YES,NO,False,True,69.6886,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T20:23:19.844000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"it doesn’t need to top on every benchmark for this market to resolve YES, if that were the case there couldn’t be two di",YES,YES,True,True,2000.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:10:25.968000+00:00,hYg1iBkg7JeGFwyIGsLsuoakKi33,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"do you believe there is any way to engage with empirical claims like ""different races have different average IQs for par",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T00:09:05.833000+00:00,l4hHE4KjzPhULo4J1TI5wmIGCut1,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I expect the price to go up during morning work hours tomorrow, and then back down, hopefully past 50, if nothing happen",NO,NO,True,True,23846.7071,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:03:08.937000+00:00,8gyPPTaAd1gh7TpZ1rhjDbF9P2q2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,By definition data is “the spreadsheets”,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,76848.7759,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:12:50.275000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Yesterday Russians voted 44% it's all a play/fake coup. I start thinking they are right.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-24T16:22:47.229000+00:00,petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Is the cognitive dissonance starting to kick in?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,8U9B3F3RSeNq4qJPfoCDncFMcB62,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:28:10.384000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,One could even say that Prigozhin fell out of of the Overton-window.,YES,NO,False,True,8.4606,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:03:07.044000+00:00,wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,This is not the first time world is having such discussions on self proclaimed white supremacist such like this!,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-01T17:48:32.922000+00:00,petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Well when you put it like that it sounds like the market should be 50/50!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:10:19.430000+00:00,wwuaYatAY3bXzQ6i9xC4H48GZgr1,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Well if that is true this is a shit criteria imo.,NO,NO,True,True,250.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-12T17:36:50.837000+00:00,8gyPPTaAd1gh7TpZ1rhjDbF9P2q2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Jimmy isn't like other hospice patients because he isn't currently facing any major health problems other than old age. ,YES,YES,True,True,23977.2421,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:51:01.356000+00:00,dT5MmfSYfBgV8lmMDbaX75WQs212,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Here is a pretty thorough summary by a historian of american slavery +https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/h",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-23T14:36:07.446000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Take a look at the full quote silly billy!!! This is how people are looking at the spreadsheets, full of the spirit but ",NO,NO,True,True,64726.1841,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-24T21:50:42.285000+00:00,iyJ1p0dr2Og4cI7L2OFPTS68QXi1,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Claude 3.7 is the best non-reasoning model. This is Feb 24, 2025.",NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T04:56:36.502000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"humor aside because I suck at humor sometimes, honestly, I think even at second removed, there's already a lot of opport",YES,NO,False,True,1.9657,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T21:22:24.437000+00:00,1tiQgOT554PvqUekWxmF2UAdqoi2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,this isn't a backtrack from McVicker,YES,YES,True,True,21313.2799,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-17T23:32:40.370000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBT,YES,YES,True,True,5983.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-01T21:56:07.290000+00:00,ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Can you give us words of advice for creating a market like this. This one is brilliant!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,324263.8318,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T22:08:29.694000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"You've provided a link to a post where Scott +compliments + an article written +against + racism. and says nothing abo",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:28:41.320000+00:00,PuCQ4k3RFaVLnt7f2hB0c0goD0d2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I think the other way would have worked if we had done it in Ṁ10k chunks to avoid the order being cancelled because of m,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:42:53.051000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will SBF plead guilty?,I feel like you definitely agreed with me when you made this comment four days ago. Now you change your mind and start t,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1974.1073,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T21:11:30.742000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I think the spirit of the market is “is Elon Musk clearly bullshitting” more than anything else as evidenced by the fram,YES,NO,False,True,2000.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T06:13:29.174000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"i.e. if you want to count it as better due to the final output being better, you cannot classify them in the same way. Z",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-14T02:02:58.129000+00:00,xjHoqvNVmQSixW2TNFE14dqdIT73,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,that's not true. He has terminal melanoma.,NO,NO,True,True,379.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-25T15:19:48.860000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"This is clearly ridiculous after many months. His expected lifespan now probably is, in fact, approximately the actuaria",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:29:25.091000+00:00,S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,If Scott Alexander has tried to convince people that white people are much more intelligent than black people simply bec,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T19:01:32.662000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,28450.0149,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:21:25.368000+00:00,HaQ25SUUvJOoiGPZswu6JeWo4yr2,Will SBF plead guilty?,I'm pretty confident this market will resolve correctly. Gigacasting already clarified.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:00:21.009000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"None of those are sources or arguments. +I read your other comments, and they come down to: Wikipedia's title doesn't in",YES,YES,True,True,633.4045,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T23:36:28.244000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Now imagine the shape if he dies one day before his birthday.,NO,NO,True,True,2109.5549,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:28:58.788000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think Trump is pretty transparent. I think ""stand back and stand by"" doesn't require a lot of unpacking. If anything p",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-06T19:51:56.507000+00:00,RqRkNuiib7U9HjfyyhiKcPwN0Z83,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,People in hospice have much shorter life expectancies than people of the same age who are not in hospice.,NO,NO,True,True,13916.8398,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:42:01.041000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,But it was also just a coup attempt by the definition set in this market AND if they actually intended to dispose of Sho,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T01:26:43.425000+00:00,rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"so what would you consider proof that scott alexander tried to convince someone of something, if scott Alexander tweeted",YES,YES,True,True,30.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T03:15:48.603000+00:00,tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,We need a coup to overthrow the market creator! ;),YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,PuCQ4k3RFaVLnt7f2hB0c0goD0d2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",NO,NO,True,True,7830.7591,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,xjHoqvNVmQSixW2TNFE14dqdIT73,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",NO,NO,True,True,679.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T00:30:38.144000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,you buying no has just made me feel extremely woozy,NO,NO,True,True,2048.8152,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-07-02T18:46:32.789000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"====== Abstract / Tl;dr ====== +The criteria stated that an early resolution would require widespread media consensus wi",YES,YES,True,True,8.4606,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:59:28.252000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Ok I'm back, Prigozhin just published a new audio message confirming that the mutiny concerned the plans to dissolve Wag",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T17:24:28.471000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,tbh I wonder if that was the plan but then they got disrupted by the incompetence with the tariffs,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:06:54.256000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I am going to go fully insane if this is being counted as a coup while the big news of the evening are that a coup did i,NO,NO,True,True,600.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:04:20.625000+00:00,4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72,Will SBF plead guilty?,"So are we going by today or by whether he takes a plea deal or...? I forecasted based on what he would do today, but per",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,150.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-14T04:44:55.254000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,buying on theta. Unless slight bad news continuously trickles in this shouldn't be a flat line at 50%. It should be c,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T10:08:36.327000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"@jacksonpolack + well if everyone had their own nuclear reactor it might be bad if people weren't up to the task of usin",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.9657,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:12:34.757000+00:00,dVs4sf5EvEhXSTCpPgE6wQf7N8n1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Obviously it was a coup attempt. It doesn't matter what Prigozhin says now, of course he says ""it was not a coup"" after ",YES,YES,True,True,280.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-05T22:16:53.150000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"it will be my subjective take on 'is this plausibly the best LLM I can access right now +Seems like reasoning models don",YES,NO,False,True,6553.0506,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T14:27:14.005000+00:00,MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"news is not public yet, will comment when it's announced.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,54791.2418,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T22:05:41.328000+00:00,1tiQgOT554PvqUekWxmF2UAdqoi2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am younger than Half-Life 2 and I'll be able to legally drink next week. It has been a +long + time.",YES,NO,False,True,20703.6388,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-08T22:19:43.663000+00:00,8MsbKmJdT8gBBzpm8f16Lzlk6qf2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://youtu.be/T3pD8H45NoE?si=1oQyBCQARrXv4Tbx +A short wonder interview with President Carter’s grandson, Jason on pl",YES,YES,True,True,112.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T06:05:54.116000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don’t know. Depends what the government deal recommends. He has a tough judge I think.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,323.8475,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:29:15.576000+00:00,MT3fY2DpzJgtGFfd8pizQ0vz8ed2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"no resolution completely makes sense if OP looks at the aggregate and says it's not a coup. +Media certainly doesn't hav",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:53:12.075000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Question -- would someone who is in favor of, say, exclusionary zoning, which was explicitly used with the specific inte",NO,NO,True,True,280.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,n0DYRRWaoFQkSrsjeHZveSedys42,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",YES,NO,False,True,15.4917,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:50:18.685000+00:00,MT3fY2DpzJgtGFfd8pizQ0vz8ed2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Like when I Google Russia the news stories call it a myriad of different things. Coup isn't unanimous atm.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,60.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T11:33:16.943000+00:00,WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Because I am not in charge of resolving this market anymore and VERY HAPPY about this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T04:04:24.752000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I still believe. 5k at 25 limit up,YES,YES,True,True,15639.1078,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-07-23T21:21:40.431000+00:00,FUccCOTtAHPByXkdRDhNp2K4DAw2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Leading Llm Arena or leasing in 8/10 commonly used benchmarks would be a less judgment based criterium,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:18:37.934000+00:00,Yl45xyWbjcO8RjrJx2RHVbVX1iw2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,I have like 25% of my net worth in this so my price has unfortunately gone up,NO,YES,False,True,39266.3926,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T02:56:51.610000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,A relevant question for arb and specificity about the announcement:,NO,YES,False,True,2722.5161,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T17:52:56.140000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"https://t.me/intelslava/49337 +New Prigozhin voice message - ""We came within 200km of Moscow without shedding a drop of ",YES,NO,False,True,8.4606,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T01:22:42.880000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"One person used my anonymous form to submit +this article + as being an attempt to convince people of white supremacy. ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T12:20:53.051000+00:00,j8BkOce2yqbVtF0JfN1OryGx3c62,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"🎂🎂 What a ride, way to go Jimmy! 🎂🎂",YES,YES,True,True,2430.6167,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-25T03:50:30.277000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://youtu.be/MMYsEJ-vZaQ?si=K1nnUnVgRf36qisS + this kid is probably going to college",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,17.61,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-05T22:03:04.035000+00:00,TrZQ7CRxGYWsIiOWiit70T7WCsu2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,so how does this resolve if grok3 is a reasoning model.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:04:40.352000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,What do you think I meant by 'welp I cashed out?'. Do you think I am going to just lose everything because you guys chan,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T07:28:37.724000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"they claim to have taken control over Rostov-on-Don: +https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/wagner-chief-claims-",YES,YES,True,True,8.4606,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:58:06.947000+00:00,ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The website literally refers to it as a coup and you are buying NO?,YES,YES,True,True,3500.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-02T22:47:30.358000+00:00,bj2HHw8ukXYsrqD5Ms5jYfNwCfQ2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Hm gonna say this is total BS. Physics were the big gimmick of HL2 because that was then a cutting-edge thing you could ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-18T21:59:07.819000+00:00,petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,wow you two have been putting every cent you have into this market for months 😂,NO,YES,False,True,73.0774,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-07T01:48:25.890000+00:00,RqRkNuiib7U9HjfyyhiKcPwN0Z83,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Unless you think the risk of dying goes down with age for people in hospice, that shouldn't matter. The fact is that peo",NO,NO,True,True,13936.8398,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:17:22.082000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will SBF plead guilty?,That is not going to happen here. The prosecutors are never going to offer him a deal.,NO,NO,True,True,2123.8475,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-16T15:56:13.805000+00:00,lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33,Will SBF plead guilty?,Does this have to be at the trial or can he plead guilty before then?,YES,YES,True,True,6081.9577,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T02:34:46.172000+00:00,PuCQ4k3RFaVLnt7f2hB0c0goD0d2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,There is no way it's better enough for a normal person to notice any difference,NO,NO,True,True,7820.2898,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T20:15:49.192000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"That was a typo on my end, I meant to say concurrent sentences are a thing. Madoff was so old that his sentence was life",NO,YES,False,True,323.8475,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:54:04.818000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I haven't finished reading through all the material posted yet, but I'm working on it. It looks like the only angle that",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:28:43.692000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"because he is either a neoreactionary, or a neoreactionary collaborator, or a second-order collaborator, that means he'",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:01:05.325000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,dont u think its interesting that white supremacists point to the writings of scott alexander? surely it updates ur beye,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T15:41:38.719000+00:00,FKRVr0myiAZcebZbBCkb43P1K2Q2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Why is this not resolved to yes +https://wavespeed.ai/blog/posts/claude-sonnet-5-everything-we-know-about-anthropics-fen",YES,YES,True,True,1170.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T00:02:00.466000+00:00,6xRZb6sK2OfzveTDuGmjSIHpovF2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Sounds like you should bet against +https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-anthropics-next-sonnet-model-e",NO,NO,True,True,30.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:01:23.831000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Wikipedia is calling it a rebellion: +https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T02:55:21.808000+00:00,tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I'd define a coup as the attempt to replace Putin. Anything short of this, including say giving the Wagner forces contr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:23:48.305000+00:00,RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I don't think you understand what ""white supremacy"" is.",NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-03T20:00:15.370000+00:00,P7PhAFBpVWchKsjsclHJQlUBfsj2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I don't think it makes sense to announce it in December if it launches with the Steam Machine. They could wait until nex,NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-24T02:05:42.637000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Which Manifold NO bettor created that document?,YES,NO,False,True,1518.1944,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T01:50:17.791000+00:00,rNVW9sNdznbeEiOEvWjw0ZmMSXZ2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"specifically for the sake of argument, let's say it was proven that a person made a persuasive claim and someone else he",YES,NO,False,True,30.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T21:05:01.276000+00:00,ChkIUvDGJqPjAcsjRqLdvzWfeyw1,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"if reasoning models don't count then Grok3 also doesn't count. As for the rest of the description, you have a good point",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-25T19:07:04.876000+00:00,b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Question about specific reason for NO.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,EwhWtm4vwqZwxqVFrIL61ieAOU52,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",NO,NO,True,True,500.5229,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:02:32.456000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,My belief about whether an instance has been provided is different depending on whether it has been provided.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-07T14:40:41.595000+00:00,1EXJ3mZbLNYLjLnXZugGKWe7j5M2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"also 3 of the 4 FTX core conspirators pled guilty, which seems like a reasonable reference class. +FWIW my NO thesis wa",NO,NO,True,True,2755.0991,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-13T09:41:31.581000+00:00,DT5s95ZLQOfi5k5iyElZgLsOTOf1,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Update 2025-05-01 (PST) +I assume that was supposed to be 2025-01-05 ?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T22:00:53.734000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"While I agree with you, the people on this market are going to tell you, like they told me, that you are stupid for thin",NO,NO,True,True,1974.1073,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-13T18:03:29.472000+00:00,8r2bepHVOBVLIzkIUVIhOU72unn1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Thank you Jimmy, only a few days to go. Keep inspiring all of us.",YES,YES,True,True,56200.8885,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-20T15:02:33.063000+00:00,Tz41xTDNKjN48bgtH7Me4TYoTKQ2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Jimmy Carter once again reflecting the true discount rate on manifold. He's the us government bond equivalent for your m,YES,YES,True,True,13643.7026,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:43:05.131000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If I believe that some people are taller than others, and that tall people are better at many jobs than short people, do",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T15:28:36.716000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"no we're conducting an experiment on what % of manifold users actually look for evidence vs just bet on vibes. Congrats,",YES,NO,False,True,9544.998,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-17T22:26:56.169000+00:00,WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,We'll see. I've seen claims this itself is a reasoning model and honestly I am SO SO GLAD I will not have to decide how ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T23:29:17.713000+00:00,s6XvPq9CXLhiMIE3hLtGOOgM18C2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,that’s all I want at 60% but I put 5k up at 40% valid for an hour if you want it.,YES,YES,True,True,5050.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T08:27:24.592000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Until a few weeks ago I didn't know about a fact of Russian politic rhetoric called ""Good Tsar, Bad Boyars"". Essentially",YES,YES,True,True,8.4606,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T20:14:48.155000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,You have gone the full goblin mode and I am too sorry for you.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,61748.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T00:59:24.416000+00:00,hYg1iBkg7JeGFwyIGsLsuoakKi33,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I'd go even further - someone who thinks smart people are ""deserving of better treatment"" than less intelligent people f",NO,NO,True,True,182.5146,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,AXCShICabXOEZrWoFSBPxmyU6jk2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",YES,YES,True,True,61.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:24:54.090000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Will SBF plead guilty?,If you’re too lazy to research how this all works then you don’t get to claim authority over how this market should reso,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,133.9738,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:56:47.003000+00:00,MT3fY2DpzJgtGFfd8pizQ0vz8ed2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I agree he could offer more clarity. Without that it can resolve how they assess it. People don't always agree,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,60.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T17:51:19.817000+00:00,Yl45xyWbjcO8RjrJx2RHVbVX1iw2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,Me and walmart doubling our networths while betting against Bayesian,NO,NO,True,True,56758.2266,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:53:18.901000+00:00,dT5MmfSYfBgV8lmMDbaX75WQs212,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Obviously I don't think you're a ""tall supremacist"" if you believe that tall people are better at basketball than short ",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T08:22:08.406000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The reason I ask is because this market has nothing to do with fascism, and I'm confused how it has any relevance to the",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T22:25:44.575000+00:00,WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I do think both interpretations are reasonable, and I could argue both sides. I understand both cases, although I would ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T23:36:26.444000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,BROOOO lmfao i did not mean to entirely close my position 😭😭😭 i saw a tweet but had to take care of my dogs so i gave my,NO,YES,False,True,116.8136,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T15:17:04.980000+00:00,v3mqwqkTFTeCZfLiNz7lC7s3oA52,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,rumors piling up this morning -,YES,YES,True,True,619.5919,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,YVzDfApmf5brx6rM55gTy2CTwTD3,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",YES,YES,True,True,79.1095,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T12:33:19.411000+00:00,FzpgR5aK88WvlbER2dKykybnDn42,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,There is no epistemic difference between providing an instance and providing evidence of an instance. Anything observed ,YES,YES,True,True,40.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T23:35:25.363000+00:00,zbcwFsMY6cSoDsj4Iwg5fOQDMjo2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I’m usually happy to bet against a rumor on the rumor site. When Bayesian is the one to fill it, and almost three orders",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T06:51:42.571000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I am sole judge. If it's called ""Half life"" and is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half life 2, I'll res",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T16:43:29.540000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Yes, there's a lot of rumors about something today.",YES,YES,True,True,50.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:46:06.545000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Have I done something of you to be deserving the hate and vitriols you are spittling in my way? Maybe you can taking the,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,76623.8034,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T19:12:54.908000+00:00,fZYRUJ6WmSRuKaZEDmBJrVihirz1,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Just to point out obvious: reasoning models are NOT any different than all other LLMs. +They are literally the same mod",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:57:42.129000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,what is the correct proportion or amount of white supremacists reading a blog before you would agree the blog is a work ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-04T14:26:29.483000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I think the previous profile pic is better? Thank you.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:04:01.276000+00:00,hYg1iBkg7JeGFwyIGsLsuoakKi33,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Where in the linked article does he openly support eugenics or white supremacy? It seems to me like he is applauding a g,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:39:49.689000+00:00,W5nW7MDFNYfwpVUcViT4LqZvfhv1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I have now learned that the word I am looking for is insurrection,NO,YES,False,True,600.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T21:07:24.499000+00:00,JVuUPkMeNJXEgBbaW2vZm0u9qvI2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,I feel like you're misunderstanding the prompt. Finkelstein is not arguing that Scott Alexander is currently a white sup,YES,YES,True,True,8.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T17:55:55.598000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Thanks for answering. The reason I specifically picked people in favor of exclusionary zoning is that a large segment of,NO,NO,True,True,280.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:22:39.990000+00:00,9waNog3HOOgEm78VedimrDbeQ5F2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Something always happens. I'm (almost) all in,YES,YES,True,True,1050.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-07-23T20:52:14.608000+00:00,vTbGCxuxBcRuXM9bGpQa5bDl2SZ2,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"""according to my best judgment"" +This is a conflict of interest +""IMO"" +This is anecdotal +This is a prediction of what ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",YES,YES,True,True,1030.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T01:49:46.421000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"uh if it's released sunday in the US, resolves N/A due to resolution ambiguity. saturday is this week. next monday is ne",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,49886.5496,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",NO,YES,False,True,250.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",YES,NO,False,True,2215.3972,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:14:03.247000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,. I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think wh,YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-06-16T01:47:30.786000+00:00,n0DYRRWaoFQkSrsjeHZveSedys42,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Every bet for yes, jimmy carter gets a little bit stronger.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T20:53:58.153000+00:00,uLDbK6XrZ4a2TRtGaZAiEWpIDOK2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"But why would Russian officials start destroying roads +https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672607862994923520 + and ",YES,NO,False,True,4625.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-15T04:13:18.511000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Social security actuarial table alone gives him (1-0.3416)^(109/365) = 0.88 chance of survival. The average hospice sta,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-31T00:46:03.764000+00:00,AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Resolution criteria are unclear. He could plead guilty at a future point in time. Indeed I think that's likely, but I'm ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:48:33.706000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Here is a video of surovikin. +Translation by Dmitri @wartranslated +""I have just returned by the order of the Ministr",YES,YES,True,True,40.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:43:37.256000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the key takeaway here is, the individual-and-community-philosophy vs individual-only-philosophy understandings o",YES,YES,True,True,1.9657,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:38:12.259000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Instead of providing an answer to your very reasonable question, I would like to point out that this conversation makes ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-14T02:31:20.550000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,It's a fever dream. Watch it from the beginning. It's an experience.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T03:24:43.116000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hmmm... now this is interesting +https://x.com/littmath/status/2018137644723482981?s=20",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T20:40:47.436000+00:00,hYg1iBkg7JeGFwyIGsLsuoakKi33,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,It's increasingly clear that most of the people in this market don't necessarily disagree on any object level facts rega,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,182.5146,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T23:50:27.751000+00:00,HQ8RzLuc4wb0HM3CeXghU0eahnN2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,It will probably beat the 80.9% score by getting 81.0%,NO,YES,False,True,10.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,jI4ieUMlGLZZ9z7BAguuZCWQ0Px1,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",NO,YES,False,True,468.4459,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T17:46:33.088000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I'm becoming a ""Sonnet 5 is Opus 4.6"" truther.",NO,NO,True,True,499.63,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T13:02:26.941000+00:00,5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,While we can argue about whether trying to explain the thought process behind some people not hiring black people in a p,NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T16:53:41.972000+00:00,MT3fY2DpzJgtGFfd8pizQ0vz8ed2,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I've presented several in this market, and the ad hom is referring then calling me a troll, then refusing to engage with",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:26:35.004000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"when you or someone else buys $1k at a time and send the price from 60% to 20%, an then other people buy it back up from",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T03:57:31.167000+00:00,SPIsEuortUNfKeTUeaE3vHLsAF93,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"""I often get the feeling that we spend much energy on quabbeling about the boundaries of nebulous concepts. I think what",YES,YES,True,True,85.8479,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T16:25:01.807000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,People care more about their own children than someone else’s child too. So I don’t get your point?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:37:47.819000+00:00,VHXYDm84GsW2G6OF6599acMQPDv2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I sort of regret betting in this market since it feels icky and disrespectful. No matter when Mr Carter passes I wish fo,NO,NO,True,True,200.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-03T01:32:52.510000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Plenty of time to buy YES later when it becomes even more likely.,YES,YES,True,True,930.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-26T23:40:55.712000+00:00,RqRkNuiib7U9HjfyyhiKcPwN0Z83,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Why would he be in hospice without any health issues and how do you know he doesn't have any health issues?,NO,NO,True,True,7484.4365,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:30:12.949000+00:00,Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,When did he argue that more intelligent people should be treated better than less intelligent people?,NO,YES,False,True,50.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a78eb6dca50c9f4e97369900fa58228d645227c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T22:11:22.960000+00:00,5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Critical Theory is pseudo-rationalist, in my view. Have you engaged with the work of James Lindsay and Helen Pluckrose a",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T05:28:05.125000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"you wont find an ally in me sorry. im very much on the side of rioting and cancelling jobs lol. again, pardon my sjw cuc",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:57:42.129000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,what is the correct proportion or amount of white supremacists reading a blog before you would agree the blog is a work ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-06T04:01:05.325000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,dont u think its interesting that white supremacists point to the writings of scott alexander? surely it updates ur beye,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:28:43.692000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"because he is either a neoreactionary, or a neoreactionary collaborator, or a second-order collaborator, that means he'",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:48:48.420000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,What is your probability that I have a genuine answer?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:38:12.259000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Instead of providing an answer to your very reasonable question, I would like to point out that this conversation makes ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T14:02:32.456000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,My belief about whether an instance has been provided is different depending on whether it has been provided.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T12:48:37.174000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,The second paragraph of the resolution criteria requires providing an instance to resolve yes.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T12:22:03.048000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"That makes sense. The market requires providing an instance, so I was expecting that, rather than indirect evidence that",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T03:01:23.888000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I would not predict that "" +Why I Defend Scoundrels"" + would convince readers of the merits of white supremacy. Would yo",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T22:27:44.105000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,One can argue on the side of horrible people without trying to convince people that their horrible beliefs are true.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T22:23:40.569000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If a college had an admissions policy that privileged children of alumni, wealthy donors, and expensive sports, all of w",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:28:58.788000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think Trump is pretty transparent. I think ""stand back and stand by"" doesn't require a lot of unpacking. If anything p",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:03:07.044000+00:00,wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,This is not the first time world is having such discussions on self proclaimed white supremacist such like this!,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T18:02:11.799000+00:00,wBZSAA3MrnWjz7eHrKAq43OXBtA2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The blog was written by Scott Alexander Siskind, a San Francisco Bay Area white supremacist, under the pen name Scott Al",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:55:38.597000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"okay, I didn't know he had a tumblr or livejournal. The linked position seems clearly opposed to white supremacy.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:32:18.086000+00:00,hYg1iBkg7JeGFwyIGsLsuoakKi33,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"If Scott believes in racial IQ differences and believes meritocracy is good for many things, but does not believe that w",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T23:11:33.182000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I've not read Scott claiming that ""white people are much more intelligent than black people simply because of their race",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-27T22:29:25.091000+00:00,S8WSbUuplgRA96KM0ILJhdMSaiq2,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,If Scott Alexander has tried to convince people that white people are much more intelligent than black people simply bec,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:05:58.798000+00:00,yi2lgrob4ff9AlonrfZESEBv06i1,Will SBF plead guilty?,"SBF's future is unclear, +But one thing we all fear, +If he pleads guilty, oh dear, +His reputation will disappear.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T04:32:18.823000+00:00,hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2,Will SBF plead guilty?,What the fuck is going on with this market?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-31T00:46:03.764000+00:00,AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Resolution criteria are unclear. He could plead guilty at a future point in time. Indeed I think that's likely, but I'm ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-23T20:27:04.631000+00:00,Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03,Will SBF plead guilty?,"To which charges? All of them, or any of them?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-22T06:04:15.947000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will SBF plead guilty?,normally this is an easy YES but sbf's been a retard so far so idk,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-04T12:06:06.607000+00:00,cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I recommend substituting your best judgement with ELO score on chatbot arena.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-25T15:39:03.909000+00:00,F7bJQkcsn7RybKyVQY73zTjGkj02,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,There is 3 months left until jimmy either becomes 100 or he dies. The annual survival rate for a 99 year old is 75-80%. ,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-21T13:15:55.061000+00:00,eQQeooSsorUHKDqat961ve9oW3E3,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy can do it! Not enough positive encouragement in the news cycle for this amazing milestone +www.centuryofcarter.co",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-17T23:17:45.010000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Ya I know I just thought it was a cool pic,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T17:15:44.523000+00:00,W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He has done the latter, and will do the former.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-25T15:19:48.860000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"This is clearly ridiculous after many months. His expected lifespan now probably is, in fact, approximately the actuaria",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-08-04T14:26:29.483000+00:00,s39YDTv6HvayjjrGcbT8TV56V0e2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I think the previous profile pic is better? Thank you.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-01-24T00:05:33.282000+00:00,TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"""Jimmy Carter is currently 98 years old, as of 02/01/23. +According to the +Actuarial Life Table provided by the Social",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T17:19:38.292000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"I made one a little more long term that’s also arb +https://manifold.markets/JasonQ/when-will-i-be-able-to-watch-a-trai",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:14:58.211000+00:00,uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Could you give me a table of Fool me times, shame on ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T17:40:59.994000+00:00,Tq9jL2S2KORFLmVPjElRYn6cZIt1,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"the VR subreddit is full of rumours that a new device will be announced today, but that's true about once per week",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T23:56:16.641000+00:00,gFp74Lo93tahv2VweeB7UcBkg0B3,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"How does a deployment repeatedly ""fail""?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02325f94b72012fff144c7f97887e41ac334a121 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True,True,112.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:33:25.081000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He does probably have the best lawyers in the world.,increase,hold,False,True,2560.9946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",increase,hold,False,True,15.4917,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,hold,False,True,2990.306,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T16:39:03.518000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"🦗 🦗 🦗 +No hope, dropped 2k on NO shares, I hope I'm wrong",flip,decrease,False,True,1637.1246,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,decrease,False,True,3000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False,True,21.9663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-19T14:40:56.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Let us not quibble on your nonsense, but the man is the reason Al Qaeda is existing! It is his time!!! He is house build",increase,flip,False,True,64428.1841,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:35:59.578000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,have you tried adding in the “vibe” and “rumor” parameters in your model?,decrease,hold,False,True,2138.2754,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-04-30T17:16:54.470000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Ahh, I understand now, thank you. + Don’t you think this is a little rude of you to do?",increase,hold,False,True,25000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,flip,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True,True,14098.3946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,increase,False,True,13.8251,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:46:18.984000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"yeah I agree. no insider news, but I had already decided to switch before + said something yesterday and needed to bait",increase,hold,False,True,10198.2026,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True,True,1518.1944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:21.714000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don't really understand the personal attacks?,increase,hold,False,True,1974.1073,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T21:05:00.838000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,might not be as good as Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4 or Gemini 2 Pro,increase,decrease,False,True,224.665,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",decrease,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:34:25.158000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,fair enough! I looked it up and I guess Alyx is a prequel?,flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-23T21:34:26.242000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"When people buy YES shares on this market, it cheers jimmy on and makes him stronger. Together we can help him over the ",increase,increase,True,True,10588.3143,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,flip,False,True,6640.1727,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:25:01.301000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,The deeper in it he is the likelier it gets it'll be rational for him to take a deal.,flip,increase,False,True,420.4694,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:26:26.078000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"That's not remotely close to what the resolution criteria of this market states. I don't see how you can look at ""coup a",increase,flip,False,True,3500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True,True,3150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:43:18.462000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The definition the market creator is going by is different than the dictionary definition. The mainstream sources relyin,increase,increase,True,True,4400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,flip,False,True,5120.5084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,increase,False,True,114.1025,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T13:19:02.132000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It does change your profit graph quite a bit.,decrease,hold,False,True,9142.2554,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",flip,flip,True,True,22.3139,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:19:53.341000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"If I were confident that this market would resolve correctly, I'd probably buy it up to 70%. But, right now, I'm buying ",increase,increase,True,True,3600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,flip,flip,True,True,80.0977,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,increase,False,True,679.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",increase,hold,False,True,468.4459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,flip,hold,False,True,6650.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,increase,False,True,1900.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:54:54.479000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Listen here herr mathematiker. You are so wrong it is disgusting for me and sad for the world. You will find lesson in d,increase,flip,False,True,59348.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:33:24.563000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"yeah, I see photos from Moscow with poice armored vehicles and don't think they think he bluffs.",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,flip,True,True,79.1095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,flip,True,True,7830.7591,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,flip,True,True,23515.1786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True,True,74123.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-12T16:32:56.648000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Living past 100 is now at 71.6% probability -- +https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=life+expectancy+of+a+male+at+jimmy",increase,hold,False,True,776.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,decrease,False,True,36.6869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-27T21:45:44.799000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"But what is the point of limit orders being cancelled due to lack of funds if they are sales? Not only did I lose Mana, ",decrease,hold,False,True,13782.5492,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False,True,958.4027,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",increase,increase,True,True,1030.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,increase,False,True,23492.1099,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True,True,38390.5874,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T11:53:59.422000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Given we’re excluding reasoning models and Grok 3 was trained on considerably more compute than any other model, why wou",decrease,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T12:08:30.060000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Did you ever role play with her as the headcrab to your combine officer?,increase,flip,False,True,5222.353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False,True,30962.9485,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-16T14:51:03.137000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Just to remind y'all: +""Novas offered explanations. She said hospice has seen an uptick in patients with dementia, condi",increase,hold,False,True,7764.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,decrease,False,True,500.5229,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T15:06:16.363000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I won't start significantly updating down on lack of news until like mid-December,decrease,hold,False,True,25522.5938,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T17:51:08.062000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It’s probably just profit manipulation for leagues.,decrease,hold,False,True,2842.819,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:05:14.437000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"5,000 at 70% limit up. Valid for an hour plus or minus",increase,increase,True,True,5100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T20:46:40.551000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"No, just another guy with a similar name",increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T04:13:14.972000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,meme so old it outlasted E3 itself,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True,True,2215.3972,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,decrease,False,True,3848.6845,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,flip,False,True,833.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True,True,76853.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False,True,17.2646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,decrease,True,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:42:37.967000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Some quick evidence that I'm not hallucinating this meaning of ""normalize"". +https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/",decrease,hold,False,True,1127.4368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T19:06:33.038000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I agree he has near-zero chance of avoiding huge sentence at trial. I model SBF’s decision as depending on +SBF’s belie",flip,decrease,False,True,1624.9267,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,increase,False,True,75873.8034,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c716b84dcf917be723422959b4e089011a67523a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T17:51:08.062000+00:00,It’s probably just profit manipulation for leagues.,decrease,decrease,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,decrease,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,decrease,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:33:24.563000+00:00,"yeah, I see photos from Moscow with poice armored vehicles and don't think they think he bluffs.",decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T11:53:59.422000+00:00,"Given we’re excluding reasoning models and Grok 3 was trained on considerably more compute than any other model, why wou",decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,decrease,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-27T21:45:44.799000+00:00,"But what is the point of limit orders being cancelled due to lack of funds if they are sales? Not only did I lose Mana, ",decrease,hold,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,decrease,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,decrease,hold,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T15:06:16.363000+00:00,I won't start significantly updating down on lack of news until like mid-December,decrease,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T13:19:02.132000+00:00,It does change your profit graph quite a bit.,decrease,decrease,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",decrease,decrease,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,decrease,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,decrease,True +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,decrease,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,decrease,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,decrease,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:42:37.967000+00:00,"Some quick evidence that I'm not hallucinating this meaning of ""normalize"". +https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/",decrease,hold,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T04:13:14.972000+00:00,meme so old it outlasted E3 itself,decrease,hold,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,decrease,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:35:59.578000+00:00,have you tried adding in the “vibe” and “rumor” parameters in your model?,decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,decrease,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,decrease,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,decrease,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,decrease,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..db5d99065eee79c856afe939796964231873d0e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,65 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",flip,hold,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,flip,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,flip,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,flip,hold,False +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,hold,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,flip,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,flip,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,hold,True +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,flip,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:34:25.158000+00:00,fair enough! I looked it up and I guess Alyx is a prequel?,flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:25:01.301000+00:00,The deeper in it he is the likelier it gets it'll be rational for him to take a deal.,flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",flip,flip,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,flip,True +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,flip,False +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,flip,False +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,hold,False +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,hold,True +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,flip,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,hold,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,hold,True +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,hold,False +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,hold,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,flip,flip,True +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T16:39:03.518000+00:00,"🦗 🦗 🦗 +No hope, dropped 2k on NO shares, I hope I'm wrong",flip,hold,False +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,hold,True +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,flip,flip,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,flip,False +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T19:06:33.038000+00:00,"I agree he has near-zero chance of avoiding huge sentence at trial. I model SBF’s decision as depending on +SBF’s belie",flip,hold,False +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02325f94b72012fff144c7f97887e41ac334a121 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True,True,112.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:33:25.081000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He does probably have the best lawyers in the world.,increase,hold,False,True,2560.9946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",increase,hold,False,True,15.4917,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,hold,False,True,2990.306,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T16:39:03.518000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"🦗 🦗 🦗 +No hope, dropped 2k on NO shares, I hope I'm wrong",flip,decrease,False,True,1637.1246,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,decrease,False,True,3000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False,True,21.9663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-19T14:40:56.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Let us not quibble on your nonsense, but the man is the reason Al Qaeda is existing! It is his time!!! He is house build",increase,flip,False,True,64428.1841,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:35:59.578000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,have you tried adding in the “vibe” and “rumor” parameters in your model?,decrease,hold,False,True,2138.2754,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-04-30T17:16:54.470000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Ahh, I understand now, thank you. + Don’t you think this is a little rude of you to do?",increase,hold,False,True,25000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,flip,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True,True,14098.3946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,increase,False,True,13.8251,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:46:18.984000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"yeah I agree. no insider news, but I had already decided to switch before + said something yesterday and needed to bait",increase,hold,False,True,10198.2026,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True,True,1518.1944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:21.714000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don't really understand the personal attacks?,increase,hold,False,True,1974.1073,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T21:05:00.838000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,might not be as good as Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4 or Gemini 2 Pro,increase,decrease,False,True,224.665,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",decrease,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:34:25.158000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,fair enough! I looked it up and I guess Alyx is a prequel?,flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-23T21:34:26.242000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"When people buy YES shares on this market, it cheers jimmy on and makes him stronger. Together we can help him over the ",increase,increase,True,True,10588.3143,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,flip,False,True,6640.1727,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:25:01.301000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,The deeper in it he is the likelier it gets it'll be rational for him to take a deal.,flip,increase,False,True,420.4694,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:26:26.078000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"That's not remotely close to what the resolution criteria of this market states. I don't see how you can look at ""coup a",increase,flip,False,True,3500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True,True,3150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:43:18.462000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The definition the market creator is going by is different than the dictionary definition. The mainstream sources relyin,increase,increase,True,True,4400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,flip,False,True,5120.5084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,increase,False,True,114.1025,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T13:19:02.132000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It does change your profit graph quite a bit.,decrease,hold,False,True,9142.2554,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",flip,flip,True,True,22.3139,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:19:53.341000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"If I were confident that this market would resolve correctly, I'd probably buy it up to 70%. But, right now, I'm buying ",increase,increase,True,True,3600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,flip,flip,True,True,80.0977,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,increase,False,True,679.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",increase,hold,False,True,468.4459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,flip,hold,False,True,6650.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,increase,False,True,1900.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:54:54.479000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Listen here herr mathematiker. You are so wrong it is disgusting for me and sad for the world. You will find lesson in d,increase,flip,False,True,59348.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:33:24.563000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"yeah, I see photos from Moscow with poice armored vehicles and don't think they think he bluffs.",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,flip,True,True,79.1095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,flip,True,True,7830.7591,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,flip,True,True,23515.1786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True,True,74123.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-12T16:32:56.648000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Living past 100 is now at 71.6% probability -- +https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=life+expectancy+of+a+male+at+jimmy",increase,hold,False,True,776.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,decrease,False,True,36.6869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-27T21:45:44.799000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"But what is the point of limit orders being cancelled due to lack of funds if they are sales? Not only did I lose Mana, ",decrease,hold,False,True,13782.5492,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False,True,958.4027,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",increase,increase,True,True,1030.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,increase,False,True,23492.1099,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True,True,38390.5874,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T11:53:59.422000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Given we’re excluding reasoning models and Grok 3 was trained on considerably more compute than any other model, why wou",decrease,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T12:08:30.060000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Did you ever role play with her as the headcrab to your combine officer?,increase,flip,False,True,5222.353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False,True,30962.9485,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-16T14:51:03.137000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Just to remind y'all: +""Novas offered explanations. She said hospice has seen an uptick in patients with dementia, condi",increase,hold,False,True,7764.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,decrease,False,True,500.5229,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T15:06:16.363000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I won't start significantly updating down on lack of news until like mid-December,decrease,hold,False,True,25522.5938,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T17:51:08.062000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It’s probably just profit manipulation for leagues.,decrease,hold,False,True,2842.819,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:05:14.437000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"5,000 at 70% limit up. Valid for an hour plus or minus",increase,increase,True,True,5100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T20:46:40.551000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"No, just another guy with a similar name",increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T04:13:14.972000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,meme so old it outlasted E3 itself,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True,True,2215.3972,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,decrease,False,True,3848.6845,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,flip,False,True,833.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True,True,76853.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False,True,17.2646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,decrease,True,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:42:37.967000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Some quick evidence that I'm not hallucinating this meaning of ""normalize"". +https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/",decrease,hold,False,True,1127.4368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T19:06:33.038000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I agree he has near-zero chance of avoiding huge sentence at trial. I model SBF’s decision as depending on +SBF’s belie",flip,decrease,False,True,1624.9267,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,increase,False,True,75873.8034,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02325f94b72012fff144c7f97887e41ac334a121 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True,True,112.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:33:25.081000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He does probably have the best lawyers in the world.,increase,hold,False,True,2560.9946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",increase,hold,False,True,15.4917,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,hold,False,True,2990.306,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T16:39:03.518000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"🦗 🦗 🦗 +No hope, dropped 2k on NO shares, I hope I'm wrong",flip,decrease,False,True,1637.1246,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,decrease,False,True,3000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False,True,21.9663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-19T14:40:56.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Let us not quibble on your nonsense, but the man is the reason Al Qaeda is existing! It is his time!!! He is house build",increase,flip,False,True,64428.1841,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:35:59.578000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,have you tried adding in the “vibe” and “rumor” parameters in your model?,decrease,hold,False,True,2138.2754,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-04-30T17:16:54.470000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Ahh, I understand now, thank you. + Don’t you think this is a little rude of you to do?",increase,hold,False,True,25000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,flip,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True,True,14098.3946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,increase,False,True,13.8251,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:46:18.984000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"yeah I agree. no insider news, but I had already decided to switch before + said something yesterday and needed to bait",increase,hold,False,True,10198.2026,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True,True,1518.1944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:21.714000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don't really understand the personal attacks?,increase,hold,False,True,1974.1073,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T21:05:00.838000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,might not be as good as Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4 or Gemini 2 Pro,increase,decrease,False,True,224.665,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",decrease,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:34:25.158000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,fair enough! I looked it up and I guess Alyx is a prequel?,flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-23T21:34:26.242000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"When people buy YES shares on this market, it cheers jimmy on and makes him stronger. Together we can help him over the ",increase,increase,True,True,10588.3143,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,flip,False,True,6640.1727,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:25:01.301000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,The deeper in it he is the likelier it gets it'll be rational for him to take a deal.,flip,increase,False,True,420.4694,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:26:26.078000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"That's not remotely close to what the resolution criteria of this market states. I don't see how you can look at ""coup a",increase,flip,False,True,3500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True,True,3150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:43:18.462000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The definition the market creator is going by is different than the dictionary definition. The mainstream sources relyin,increase,increase,True,True,4400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,flip,False,True,5120.5084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,increase,False,True,114.1025,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T13:19:02.132000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It does change your profit graph quite a bit.,decrease,hold,False,True,9142.2554,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",flip,flip,True,True,22.3139,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:19:53.341000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"If I were confident that this market would resolve correctly, I'd probably buy it up to 70%. But, right now, I'm buying ",increase,increase,True,True,3600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,flip,flip,True,True,80.0977,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,increase,False,True,679.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",increase,hold,False,True,468.4459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,flip,hold,False,True,6650.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,increase,False,True,1900.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:54:54.479000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Listen here herr mathematiker. You are so wrong it is disgusting for me and sad for the world. You will find lesson in d,increase,flip,False,True,59348.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:33:24.563000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"yeah, I see photos from Moscow with poice armored vehicles and don't think they think he bluffs.",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,flip,True,True,79.1095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,flip,True,True,7830.7591,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,flip,True,True,23515.1786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True,True,74123.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-12T16:32:56.648000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Living past 100 is now at 71.6% probability -- +https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=life+expectancy+of+a+male+at+jimmy",increase,hold,False,True,776.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,decrease,False,True,36.6869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-27T21:45:44.799000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"But what is the point of limit orders being cancelled due to lack of funds if they are sales? Not only did I lose Mana, ",decrease,hold,False,True,13782.5492,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False,True,958.4027,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",increase,increase,True,True,1030.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,increase,False,True,23492.1099,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True,True,38390.5874,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T11:53:59.422000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Given we’re excluding reasoning models and Grok 3 was trained on considerably more compute than any other model, why wou",decrease,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T12:08:30.060000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Did you ever role play with her as the headcrab to your combine officer?,increase,flip,False,True,5222.353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False,True,30962.9485,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-16T14:51:03.137000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Just to remind y'all: +""Novas offered explanations. She said hospice has seen an uptick in patients with dementia, condi",increase,hold,False,True,7764.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,decrease,False,True,500.5229,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T15:06:16.363000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I won't start significantly updating down on lack of news until like mid-December,decrease,hold,False,True,25522.5938,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T17:51:08.062000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It’s probably just profit manipulation for leagues.,decrease,hold,False,True,2842.819,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:05:14.437000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"5,000 at 70% limit up. Valid for an hour plus or minus",increase,increase,True,True,5100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T20:46:40.551000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"No, just another guy with a similar name",increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T04:13:14.972000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,meme so old it outlasted E3 itself,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True,True,2215.3972,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,decrease,False,True,3848.6845,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,flip,False,True,833.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True,True,76853.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False,True,17.2646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,decrease,True,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:42:37.967000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Some quick evidence that I'm not hallucinating this meaning of ""normalize"". +https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/",decrease,hold,False,True,1127.4368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T19:06:33.038000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I agree he has near-zero chance of avoiding huge sentence at trial. I model SBF’s decision as depending on +SBF’s belie",flip,decrease,False,True,1624.9267,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,increase,False,True,75873.8034,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02325f94b72012fff144c7f97887e41ac334a121 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True,True,112.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:33:25.081000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He does probably have the best lawyers in the world.,increase,hold,False,True,2560.9946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",increase,hold,False,True,15.4917,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,hold,False,True,2990.306,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T16:39:03.518000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"🦗 🦗 🦗 +No hope, dropped 2k on NO shares, I hope I'm wrong",flip,decrease,False,True,1637.1246,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,decrease,False,True,3000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False,True,21.9663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-19T14:40:56.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Let us not quibble on your nonsense, but the man is the reason Al Qaeda is existing! It is his time!!! He is house build",increase,flip,False,True,64428.1841,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:35:59.578000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,have you tried adding in the “vibe” and “rumor” parameters in your model?,decrease,hold,False,True,2138.2754,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-04-30T17:16:54.470000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Ahh, I understand now, thank you. + Don’t you think this is a little rude of you to do?",increase,hold,False,True,25000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,flip,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True,True,14098.3946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,increase,False,True,13.8251,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:46:18.984000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"yeah I agree. no insider news, but I had already decided to switch before + said something yesterday and needed to bait",increase,hold,False,True,10198.2026,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True,True,1518.1944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:21.714000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don't really understand the personal attacks?,increase,hold,False,True,1974.1073,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T21:05:00.838000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,might not be as good as Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4 or Gemini 2 Pro,increase,decrease,False,True,224.665,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",decrease,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:34:25.158000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,fair enough! I looked it up and I guess Alyx is a prequel?,flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-23T21:34:26.242000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"When people buy YES shares on this market, it cheers jimmy on and makes him stronger. Together we can help him over the ",increase,increase,True,True,10588.3143,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,flip,False,True,6640.1727,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:25:01.301000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,The deeper in it he is the likelier it gets it'll be rational for him to take a deal.,flip,increase,False,True,420.4694,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:26:26.078000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"That's not remotely close to what the resolution criteria of this market states. I don't see how you can look at ""coup a",increase,flip,False,True,3500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True,True,3150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:43:18.462000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The definition the market creator is going by is different than the dictionary definition. The mainstream sources relyin,increase,increase,True,True,4400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,flip,False,True,5120.5084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,increase,False,True,114.1025,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T13:19:02.132000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It does change your profit graph quite a bit.,decrease,hold,False,True,9142.2554,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",flip,flip,True,True,22.3139,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:19:53.341000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"If I were confident that this market would resolve correctly, I'd probably buy it up to 70%. But, right now, I'm buying ",increase,increase,True,True,3600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,flip,flip,True,True,80.0977,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,increase,False,True,679.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",increase,hold,False,True,468.4459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,flip,hold,False,True,6650.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,increase,False,True,1900.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:54:54.479000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Listen here herr mathematiker. You are so wrong it is disgusting for me and sad for the world. You will find lesson in d,increase,flip,False,True,59348.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:33:24.563000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"yeah, I see photos from Moscow with poice armored vehicles and don't think they think he bluffs.",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,flip,True,True,79.1095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,flip,True,True,7830.7591,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,flip,True,True,23515.1786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True,True,74123.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-12T16:32:56.648000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Living past 100 is now at 71.6% probability -- +https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=life+expectancy+of+a+male+at+jimmy",increase,hold,False,True,776.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,decrease,False,True,36.6869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-27T21:45:44.799000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"But what is the point of limit orders being cancelled due to lack of funds if they are sales? Not only did I lose Mana, ",decrease,hold,False,True,13782.5492,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False,True,958.4027,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",increase,increase,True,True,1030.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,increase,False,True,23492.1099,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True,True,38390.5874,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T11:53:59.422000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Given we’re excluding reasoning models and Grok 3 was trained on considerably more compute than any other model, why wou",decrease,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T12:08:30.060000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Did you ever role play with her as the headcrab to your combine officer?,increase,flip,False,True,5222.353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False,True,30962.9485,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-16T14:51:03.137000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Just to remind y'all: +""Novas offered explanations. She said hospice has seen an uptick in patients with dementia, condi",increase,hold,False,True,7764.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,decrease,False,True,500.5229,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T15:06:16.363000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I won't start significantly updating down on lack of news until like mid-December,decrease,hold,False,True,25522.5938,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T17:51:08.062000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It’s probably just profit manipulation for leagues.,decrease,hold,False,True,2842.819,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:05:14.437000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"5,000 at 70% limit up. Valid for an hour plus or minus",increase,increase,True,True,5100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T20:46:40.551000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"No, just another guy with a similar name",increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T04:13:14.972000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,meme so old it outlasted E3 itself,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True,True,2215.3972,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,decrease,False,True,3848.6845,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,flip,False,True,833.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True,True,76853.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False,True,17.2646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,decrease,True,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:42:37.967000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Some quick evidence that I'm not hallucinating this meaning of ""normalize"". +https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/",decrease,hold,False,True,1127.4368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T19:06:33.038000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I agree he has near-zero chance of avoiding huge sentence at trial. I model SBF’s decision as depending on +SBF’s belie",flip,decrease,False,True,1624.9267,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,increase,False,True,75873.8034,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..eda19743714560e359ee1871c4d07342b6f39ff4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-12-01T00:47:50.581000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He’s literally in hospice care,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False,True,958.4027,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T15:02:29.586000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I don't know why you think he's gonna die,increase,flip,False,True,17128.5865,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:26:37.532000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Nah happy with the price for now, I think more people will sell.",increase,decrease,False,True,17784.4559,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:51:44.865000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think we need to wait weeks? It hits a criteria specifically called out in the description already. It doesn’t n,increase,increase,True,True,1500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,decrease,False,True,3000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T21:18:28.479000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,can you message me on discord? Just join the manifold discord and search LeviF,hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-10T22:37:00.027000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,wanna bet a larger amount? I think it will likely resolve NO but i'd buy some yes today at 10%,flip,flip,True,True,2743.9381,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:13.846000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"i have some up at 92%, it's pretty high mb",flip,hold,False,True,158670.4461,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:43:18.462000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The definition the market creator is going by is different than the dictionary definition. The mainstream sources relyin,increase,increase,True,True,4400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-12T13:58:10.568000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"You can do it, Jimmy. 110 more days! 🎂🎈",increase,increase,True,True,3750.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T18:42:33.197000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"It felt a lot like the Gemini 3 market, when Manifold gave an 85% chance of it being released in October. Prediction mar",hold,decrease,False,True,56758.2266,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False,True,21.9663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-05T10:08:36.327000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"@jacksonpolack + well if everyone had their own nuclear reactor it might be bad if people weren't up to the task of usin",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-02T10:47:23.293000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,There's a guy that likes to buy mana and put M5-10k on NO every so often. He just randomly drops the Jimmy Carter market,flip,flip,True,True,32299.6508,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:54:49.539000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Sorry for being ""aggressive"". I bet based on an assumption that was apparently wrong because there was no resolution cri",decrease,flip,False,True,1974.1073,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T15:28:36.716000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"no we're conducting an experiment on what % of manifold users actually look for evidence vs just bet on vibes. Congrats,",hold,flip,False,True,9544.998,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-07-15T19:27:25.706000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Back at 69% +w/ 77 days left +♾️",increase,hold,False,True,17733.2677,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-26T21:44:29.547000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Quantum Gambler has gone insane,increase,flip,False,True,92033.9902,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T05:41:39.280000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I lost my virginity to a girl who used to quote this video all the time,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True,True,2215.3972,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:26:26.078000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"That's not remotely close to what the resolution criteria of this market states. I don't see how you can look at ""coup a",increase,flip,False,True,3500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-25T21:11:30.742000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I think the spirit of the market is “is Elon Musk clearly bullshitting” more than anything else as evidenced by the fram,hold,increase,False,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,increase,False,True,13.8251,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:46:37.873000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Look at all the other markets gigacasting created. He has one for guilty plea before Feb 1st and others. This market thu,decrease,hold,False,True,1974.1073,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T07:22:04.183000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Counterpoint: normal people (average Superbowl viewers) don't know what Sonnet is, and definitely don't care about the d",flip,hold,False,True,7020.2898,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-02T18:45:45.859000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"yeah, but hospice doesn't mean he's exactly spry either. More importantly ""Carter said he was going to stop further medi",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-30T18:30:39.442000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,Could you give some examples of something that e.g. David Duke has said which would qualify as white supremacy by your d,hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-09-24T01:35:28.128000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I think there are only two options. either he dies or he hits 100,increase,flip,False,True,160.7786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T16:15:24.901000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,This market needs the N/A resolution due to the various discrepancies we are seeing in it. Please I am begging you for i,hold,flip,False,True,76853.8034,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T16:55:02.854000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,no and they deleted the tweet and a representative said the tweet was a lie lol,flip,flip,True,True,30436.1472,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T22:05:57.807000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"to be clear, having spent a little more time, I totally accept I misunderstood the prediction. But it's a shame it was q",decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",increase,hold,False,True,15.4917,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T01:22:30.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Mostly because I hadn’t read the news articles carefully enough and so failed to realize it was about the arraignment. I,flip,flip,True,True,103.9002,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-20T15:02:33.063000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Jimmy Carter once again reflecting the true discount rate on manifold. He's the us government bond equivalent for your m,increase,hold,False,True,13643.7026,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T02:49:24.600000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"It wasn't a coup attempt. It was just a military convoy, and the Russians making ostentatious announcement about what t",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:55.506000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Very thin but all of the top 10 causes of death in the us have a large negative correlation to weight (accidents i’m not,flip,decrease,False,True,3957.0859,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-30T19:35:55.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Decided to just create the market anyway: +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke-b",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:21:36.076000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,That’s not the relevant kind of guilty plea. This one is purely procedural. Look it up.,increase,flip,False,True,133.9738,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-10T07:07:13.527000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Rumors of an announcement this Wednesday,flip,flip,True,True,300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-28T00:56:53.119000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,they probably would not qualify as an activist white supremacist by identity label according to the way I would label th,hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-07T01:57:34.595000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I see death is being creative in finding ways to kill...time 'cause jimmy will make him wait,increase,flip,False,True,6014.5036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T08:10:28.882000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I suggest you read the whole article, it's pretty good, and doesn't even seem that long for a Scott Alexander piece. +y",decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-26T10:24:48.044000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"""Despite not having direct information about Carter's condition, Teno shared her insights on his possible health traject",flip,decrease,False,True,80.0977,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-12T19:20:18.133000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He'll be offered one—though we may never know about it—but he seems increasingly intent on not taking one. I predict thi,flip,flip,True,True,133.9002,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False,True,17.2646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-18T00:43:52.756000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,I think they just told him about the extra peanut butter ice cream portion waiting for him on his 100th birthday,increase,increase,True,True,7092.6113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:03:29.920000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,part of the fun of it tbh. a little conflict of interest to navigate,flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T02:29:35.756000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"lmao, thanks, but that doesn't really address my question",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T14:23:27.426000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Enron, Theranos, Nikola, Worldcom CEOs went to trial. No guilty pleas there. Madoff pled guilty but it was an obvious ",increase,increase,True,True,1125.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-06T01:03:21.172000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"August 5th to September 29th +is more like a couple months than a few weeks",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T11:05:16.570000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Kinda arb, but not really the same question:",decrease,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-29T22:21:53.548000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,How about some evidence of an instance instead? ❤,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-30T22:52:57.361000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Someone bought through my limit orders, so I put up another m500.",decrease,increase,False,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",increase,flip,False,True,22.3139,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-02T10:44:38.070000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I'm confused about the ""YES"" limit orders on this market. They come across as pretty risky unless you're on standby (or ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:14:58.211000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Could you give me a table of Fool me times, shame on ",increase,hold,False,True,11956.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-30T10:57:30.303000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,this peanut farmer every time i buy some more NO shares...,decrease,increase,False,True,1496.3163,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-28T09:53:03.867000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Maybe Yes. +First of all VALVE always announce killer games to boost their hardware sales. As we all know, the steam mac",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T04:34:46.630000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Does this just straightforwardly resolve based on the lmarena score?,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:06:14.317000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"it's also a lot about quality of training data, fine tuning, RLHF etc.",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-02T20:07:16.291000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,This market gives me so much anxiety. He could literally die any day but I’m here for the meme,decrease,decrease,True,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-24T16:32:07.865000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"In America, you strap the mobility scooter to the back of the van and we ride into the walmart parking lot floodlights. ",hold,hold,True,True,73623.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-01T11:39:54.358000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Loaded up another 250 mana at 20%. Just you watch.,decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T18:47:53.073000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,it's interesting to bet when you think there are a lot of people who are wrong :) my take for why so many voted yes is t,hold,hold,True,True,42599.4441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T20:13:20.334000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I like the sound of that, let's get this market resolved ASAP.",increase,hold,False,True,22000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T17:08:23.788000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I ham thinking about this very much today, and it is best for all traders here for N/A resolving here. The man is living",hold,flip,False,True,76838.8034,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:44:36.550000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,on the one hand this feels like an insider pump but on the other hand it's fundamentally schizo to believe in valve to d,decrease,decrease,True,True,226.6188,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T06:47:48.849000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"Pat doing the significantly smarter thing and not trusting unverified sources. +Unfortunately I have a gambling addicti",decrease,decrease,True,True,988.0869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T22:01:28.336000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Lol, good job making a profit by spreading nonsense that you yourself don't believe in.",increase,flip,False,True,3600.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-15T06:57:00.125000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"It is a pretty thorough post so it's worth reading but the headline is +Most famously, former Vice-President and later S",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-26T10:23:47.511000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It was ""final chapter"" in Aug2023, now it's ""near the end"". There's still a subtle difference. +Him ""still recognizing p",flip,flip,True,True,80.0977,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:04:52.244000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I meant like the other side like I wanted you to put a yes limit but if you don’t feel comfortable, that’s fine",decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-02T22:18:22.292000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,do you understand what the image means,flip,hold,False,True,4363.0952,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-16T21:49:32.930000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"We should launch a related question: Will SBF take the witness stand? +https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-sbf",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-05T17:51:19.817000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,Me and walmart doubling our networths while betting against Bayesian,hold,increase,False,True,56758.2266,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True,True,3150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:39:49.689000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I have now learned that the word I am looking for is insurrection,decrease,flip,False,True,600.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T17:57:40.982000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"that limit order would bite you +so + hard if he kicks it today and somebody else notices before you do (or before the ",hold,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False,True,30962.9485,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-02-17T15:00:32.687000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Yes, and while for younger people the year of age is enough to calculate chances of surviving to 100, for 90+ year olds ",flip,increase,False,True,105.6307,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:45:35.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,You clearly didn't see all the other markets created by gigacasting.,decrease,flip,False,True,1974.1073,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-06T13:46:57.613000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not just the life expectancy of someone his age, it's someone his age with terminal illness in a hospice.",decrease,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-25T18:34:48.360000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Sometimes people sleep and just... don't wake up,flip,decrease,False,True,45.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:55:58.463000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..02325f94b72012fff144c7f97887e41ac334a121 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-28T12:55:00.433000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter’s eldest grandson, Jason Carter talks about his grandfather’s legacy as we are less than 3 days away from ",hold,hold,True,True,112.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T18:05:06.716000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"A coup attempt is not a coup, just as attempted murder is not murder. This was most likely a demonstration of power to b",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:37:04.603000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,Even that is based on assumptions. According to both sides that's not the case. The only reason people think this was a ,decrease,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:33:25.081000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He does probably have the best lawyers in the world.,increase,hold,False,True,2560.9946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-27T17:39:00.678000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Putin calls Wagner mutiny ""treason"" in televised address - YouTube +im slowly reading through the comments, but you aske",increase,hold,False,True,15.4917,HOLD,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-03T22:41:53.228000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-a-new-claude-opus-model-be-rel?r=QmVuQXliYXI + +I have a limit up at 40% on yes ",increase,hold,False,True,2990.306,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-26T16:39:03.518000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"🦗 🦗 🦗 +No hope, dropped 2k on NO shares, I hope I'm wrong",flip,decrease,False,True,1637.1246,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T14:18:44.507000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"dozen plus Russian soldiers died, too. +✓ insurgency +✓ armed +✓ with the goal to replace a higher official +I am genuin",hold,increase,False,True,61.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-13T09:40:11.219000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Would be nice to get new Half-Life,flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-16T18:39:49.301000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,oof Robin i want to be a counterparty but I'm worried that im sabotaging my own team in,flip,decrease,False,True,3000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-01T19:07:14.932000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"fair enough, roughly 60/40 that claude 5 gets released. Mosrly affected by the market price on polymarket being so high",flip,hold,False,True,21.9663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-19T14:40:56.049000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Let us not quibble on your nonsense, but the man is the reason Al Qaeda is existing! It is his time!!! He is house build",increase,flip,False,True,64428.1841,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T19:35:59.578000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,have you tried adding in the “vibe” and “rumor” parameters in your model?,decrease,hold,False,True,2138.2754,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-04-30T17:16:54.470000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Ahh, I understand now, thank you. + Don’t you think this is a little rude of you to do?",increase,hold,False,True,25000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T18:40:37.616000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"The market on David Duke has resolved to 7 years. +https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/for-how-many-years-has-david-duke",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-27T14:57:45.128000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,December doesn't feel like a good season to make a huge announcement. Spent another 1k on NO,flip,increase,False,True,2637.1246,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T00:53:50.975000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Jimmy Carter the 39th President of the United States from 1977-1981 will be 100 years young in just a few hours, our fir",hold,increase,False,True,112.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-20T12:49:12.171000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Mods are discussing / deciding on the resolution, yes. It might take a few days to see how good grok is seen to fare and",hold,hold,True,True,14098.3946,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T22:44:08.894000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"Seems like Russia is taking it more seriously than Prigozhin's previous theatrics: +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro",flip,increase,False,True,13.8251,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-19T18:46:18.984000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"yeah I agree. no insider news, but I had already decided to switch before + said something yesterday and needed to bait",increase,hold,False,True,10198.2026,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:42:03.470000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I think most readers are biased as they invested in ""yes"" when things very much looked like a coup. The sudden resolutio",decrease,increase,False,True,600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-20T06:26:08.858000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Based on how people were betting in the past, why isn't this down at 80%? +(No of course it shouldn't be; but it shouldn",hold,hold,True,True,1518.1944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:43:21.714000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,I don't really understand the personal attacks?,increase,hold,False,True,1974.1073,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-07T21:05:00.838000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,might not be as good as Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4 or Gemini 2 Pro,increase,decrease,False,True,224.665,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T04:15:28.306000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"https://www.wrdw.com/2024/05/10/age-99-jimmy-carter-is-still-exercising-his-right-vote/ +The guy on his deathbed just vo",decrease,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T03:34:25.158000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,fair enough! I looked it up and I guess Alyx is a prequel?,flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-23T21:34:26.242000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"When people buy YES shares on this market, it cheers jimmy on and makes him stronger. Together we can help him over the ",increase,increase,True,True,10588.3143,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-08T01:11:25.543000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday,hold,flip,False,True,6640.1727,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:25:01.301000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,The deeper in it he is the likelier it gets it'll be rational for him to take a deal.,flip,increase,False,True,420.4694,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-14T22:23:48.465000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,agreed. rationalist writings are among those white supremacists read,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:50:53.599000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,to be seen if those preorders are put in place ofc,flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:26:26.078000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"That's not remotely close to what the resolution criteria of this market states. I don't see how you can look at ""coup a",increase,flip,False,True,3500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T18:45:50.805000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"I have already spent over M2000 on NO, and will probably wait for more news before piling on further. +The evidence that",hold,hold,True,True,3150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T17:43:18.462000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,The definition the market creator is going by is different than the dictionary definition. The mainstream sources relyin,increase,increase,True,True,4400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-25T15:34:27.969000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fak",hold,flip,False,True,5120.5084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T16:27:24.929000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,the Orange Box was up there with Halo 2 as the greatest video game releases in history. Surely you’ve heard the lore,flip,increase,False,True,114.1025,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-15T13:19:02.132000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It does change your profit graph quite a bit.,decrease,hold,False,True,9142.2554,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-08-14T20:36:04.099000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,Seeing how good Grok 2 is makes me think it will at be on par with 3.5 Opus and whichever models OpenAI and GDM release ,decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-18T13:29:45.881000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Zoom, zoom, zoom. We're going to the moon.",increase,increase,True,True,12000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-10-11T13:47:53.424000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"then the ""after August 2024"" in +https://manifold.markets/Predictor/when-will-jimmy-carter-pass-away + is waaay underpr",flip,flip,True,True,22.3139,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T18:06:22.027000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Maybe defendants charged with fraud are not representative of big CEOs charged with fraud. I think my reference class i,increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:19:53.341000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"If I were confident that this market would resolve correctly, I'd probably buy it up to 70%. But, right now, I'm buying ",increase,increase,True,True,3600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-27T19:50:38.825000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,He's already a centenarian... he would >50% survive if born prematurely 100 years ago,flip,flip,True,True,80.0977,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-14T16:37:22.696000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"It's not nonsense. By this stage, given the progression described and typical end-of-life signs, survival beyond this po",hold,increase,False,True,679.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-29T16:26:10.647000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"He is healthy enough, physically and mentally, to want to attend a funeral and be able to attend a funeral. Who knows...",increase,hold,False,True,468.4459,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T19:46:20.693000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. Where’s the dishonesty? I don’t see a personal benefit to clarifying the market ,flip,hold,False,True,6650.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T21:50:10.218000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"per description, GPT-4o would have resolved YES based on getting #1 in the arena. Grok3 got #1 in the arena.",hold,increase,False,True,1900.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-01-29T15:54:54.479000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,Listen here herr mathematiker. You are so wrong it is disgusting for me and sad for the world. You will find lesson in d,increase,flip,False,True,59348.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:33:24.563000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"yeah, I see photos from Moscow with poice armored vehicles and don't think they think he bluffs.",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-12T19:49:59.957000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"still, announcing before the season is good and lets them have preorders set up to build excitement. a slip that says ""y",flip,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-04T19:03:49.929000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"Even if you're right, pleading guilty get him behind bars quicker +not pleading guilty --> ""house arrest"" in luxury for",flip,flip,True,True,79.1095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-07T18:23:05.883000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order a",flip,flip,True,True,7830.7591,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-17T00:26:25.314000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"maybe! I've had to consider alternative strategies. since robin is worth more points for my team than I am, do I let mys",flip,hold,False,True,5441.2943,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T12:16:44.961000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,I previously held a NO position because I was a doubter about pure scaling vs secret sauce reinforcement+training corpus,increase,increase,True,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:11:18.720000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"ah, what a bummer abt the v0 announcement 🤷‍♀️",flip,flip,True,True,23515.1786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-08-25T01:30:02.402000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Stay in your lane buster. So annoying you are putting the top of leaderboard in the bio, if anybody is caring they will ",hold,hold,True,True,74123.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:29:05.935000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,very clearly? it doesn't say anything! it could even be about some traffic ticket he gets in 2048!,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:43:16.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,This question was consistently above 50% while Putin to say in power never dropped below 70. Which suggests that the vas,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2023-11-12T16:32:56.648000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Living past 100 is now at 71.6% probability -- +https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=life+expectancy+of+a+male+at+jimmy",increase,hold,False,True,776.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-19T00:06:09.854000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,It might be good to sanity check with our own benchmarks. In case of shenanigans with the voting? Including perhaps peop,hold,decrease,False,True,36.6869,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-27T21:45:44.799000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"But what is the point of limit orders being cancelled due to lack of funds if they are sales? Not only did I lose Mana, ",decrease,hold,False,True,13782.5492,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-10-01T04:36:33.225000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Wait, but how can it be 100% if probabilities of 1 and 0 don't exist?",hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T03:23:09.057000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"I think the argument here is that he is ""normalizing"" racism. Eg, some people think it is okay to punch racists, because",decrease,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-26T15:26:27.936000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"the Russians are lying! +It is incredible. The western media has, for years, been saying that the Russians are lying li",increase,decrease,False,True,2200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T21:33:14.465000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,there was an attempted coup which failed,decrease,flip,False,True,310.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-21T02:08:32.646000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,please knock it off with the doggerel,decrease,hold,False,True,958.4027,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-06-19T06:20:34.537000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Correct. The longer he goes without major health issues appearing, the more the correct estimate should converge to a st",increase,increase,True,True,1030.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T23:43:54.995000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,I mean that is a series of links. If I come ack with a bunch does that mean it isn't,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-18T19:18:01.860000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"https://xcancel.com/natethehate2/status/1990859068118798540?s=46 +mmw: if nate comes out with a time, >90% it's gonna ha",decrease,increase,False,True,23492.1099,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-12-31T23:25:00.679000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,"If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% +https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/wil",hold,hold,True,True,38390.5874,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-01-04T22:54:20.784000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"contribution appreciated by me; I reply to continue your point, not to disagree, so feel free to let this pass, Jamie. m",hold,hold,True,True,1.9657,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T14:43:06.924000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"By reasoning models you should only count models with thinking time in their inference, which means in the contest you s",increase,hold,False,True,3800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-01-06T11:53:59.422000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Given we’re excluding reasoning models and Grok 3 was trained on considerably more compute than any other model, why wou",decrease,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-22T12:08:30.060000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,Did you ever role play with her as the headcrab to your combine officer?,increase,flip,False,True,5222.353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-03-17T12:35:47.571000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Also, by this metric, anyone who believes something like ""systemic racism has led to black people scoring worse on intel",hold,flip,False,True,69.6886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:02:19.784000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,i would like to pick up some NO’s want to take the other side?,decrease,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-18T17:24:20.468000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,you seem to suffer from Stockholm syndrome after insanity surrounded your basement,hold,flip,False,True,30962.9485,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-05-16T14:51:03.137000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"Just to remind y'all: +""Novas offered explanations. She said hospice has seen an uptick in patients with dementia, condi",increase,hold,False,True,7764.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2024-09-05T22:36:48.452000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"I tend to distrust Elon Musk's predictions, by default. His ever-changing timeline for self-driving cars betrays both a",hold,decrease,False,True,500.5229,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-20T15:06:16.363000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,I won't start significantly updating down on lack of news until like mid-December,decrease,hold,False,True,25522.5938,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-02-29T17:51:08.062000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,It’s probably just profit manipulation for leagues.,decrease,hold,False,True,2842.819,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-05T12:25:49.153000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Please stop saying ""black people are criminal"", this is highly offensive and inaccurate.",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T14:05:14.437000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"5,000 at 70% limit up. Valid for an hour plus or minus",increase,increase,True,True,5100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-05T20:46:40.551000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"No, just another guy with a similar name",increase,hold,False,True,1225.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-28T16:31:10.706000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"It's possible. I just think prosecutors very often have incentives to offer deals—no risk of mistrial or acquittal, much",flip,decrease,False,True,420.4694,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hQQPLApOcA,2025-11-21T04:13:14.972000+00:00,Half-Life 3 confirmed by EOY?,meme so old it outlasted E3 itself,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2022-12-30T18:17:25.023000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because that’s in his interest if he wants any chance of not spending the rest of his life behind bars?,flip,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-10-02T14:36:57.289000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"we haven't been over 50% in a month. But yeah, I'm like you. I initially thought SBF had enough sense to strike a deal, ",flip,flip,True,True,2215.3972,FLIP,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T20:33:51.434000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,at this point I think we're at an impasse and if you really feel you've been indisputably wronged here I recommend block,flip,flip,True,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2023-02-04T19:33:54.635000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Hmm the end of this comment might have come off as a bit aggressive. I meant stuff like ""faux-objectivity"" in a descript",hold,hold,True,True,69.6886,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8inxpv5vhk,2025-02-18T14:32:20.992000+00:00,Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?,"Grok 3 Reasoning Beta is far from finished, it's not even quite as good as Grok 3 mini Reasoning yet.",hold,decrease,False,True,3848.6845,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +QLLPInsLNA,2026-02-04T17:15:48.520000+00:00,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,"I hate the fake AI leakers, always have. Finally a good time to bet against them.",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-01-03T21:59:28.865000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,He just pleaded not guilty to all charges right? The market should resolve to no.,hold,flip,False,True,833.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-30T21:02:36.896000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,"I have called for it once. Please do not insult me on it. This is the one market I would like for it to be N/A'ed, that ",hold,hold,True,True,76853.8034,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-03-20T21:18:01.020000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,Because SBF is your typical high profile personality?,flip,hold,False,True,17.2646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-24T20:15:35.329000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"not a coup according to the expert +https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672689832462614529?cxt=HHwWgoC8tcqiy7YuAAAA",decrease,decrease,True,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N7o4TYXWrT4rHYVwidS7,2022-12-31T04:42:37.967000+00:00,Has Scott Alexander ever attempted to convince at least one person that white supremacy is good?,"Some quick evidence that I'm not hallucinating this meaning of ""normalize"". +https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/",decrease,hold,False,True,1127.4368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +YBxwKfe5eY2Ynw1ACGYI,2023-02-09T19:06:33.038000+00:00,Will SBF plead guilty?,"I agree he has near-zero chance of avoiding huge sentence at trial. I model SBF’s decision as depending on +SBF’s belie",flip,decrease,False,True,1624.9267,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM,2024-09-02T15:52:07.864000+00:00,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,One more of the month before collection man is coming knocking down the doors for a lot of your mana loans. Be warning a,hold,increase,False,True,75873.8034,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ,2023-06-23T21:17:16.771000+00:00,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,"if tomorrow or the day aftee Prigozhin has calmed down, this market will propably resolve negative.",decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3372139f9dc379929b440a3d993185aa92e22f21 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.0609577119013628,0.007426388693348966,-0.053531323208013834,DOWN,0.48701345682970326,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,16,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.6603426856437209,0.111081253497137,-0.5492614321465839,DOWN,0.13640622840176392,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,18,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2d173978b74ad656a8bac0321af238b93ff341a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/other/qwen3_manifold_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.060957711901362815,0.03676206501801044,-0.02419564688335238,DOWN,0.7890107103207971,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,18,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.7251671329769324,0.7723940978373826,0.047226964860450193,UP,0.6921590956064342,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,52,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.3206458938551716,0.9480309715019187,0.6273850776467471,UP,0.7351446265344368,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,29,DOWN,qwen3:32b +3,0.7251671329769321,0.6083504639134812,-0.1168166690634509,DOWN,0.5254305161125131,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,35,DOWN,qwen3:32b +4,0.0609577119013628,0.7282678817605057,0.6673101698591429,UP,0.9551556341265434,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?,8,DOWN,qwen3:32b +5,0.3206458938551716,0.7167889878559381,0.3961430940007665,UP,0.633244714786369,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,26,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.3206458938551716,0.5754549890795482,0.25480909522437656,UP,0.7585972044262042,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,16,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.725167132976932,0.6085874012810049,-0.11657973169592717,DOWN,0.8433850572334792,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?,37,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8,0.6603426856437208,0.6848873626795527,0.024544677035831963,UP,0.5126005621617535,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,9,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.3206458938551716,0.3686583384667321,0.04801244461156051,UP,0.13999865613739854,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +10,0.6603426856437207,0.5486907825696192,-0.11165190307410144,DOWN,0.054896183544616436,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,79,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.6603426856437207,0.5926627112565417,-0.06767997438717899,DOWN,0.09093696340686312,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will SBF plead guilty?,12,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/commitment_validity_manifold_politics_intl.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/commitment_validity_manifold_politics_intl.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7eee6cd15ed120113bcf1b5fccab9063f3ce79f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/commitment_validity_manifold_politics_intl.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/politics_intl", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 18, + "n_wrong_bettors": 9, + "n_directional": 7, + "skip": "n_dir=7<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=15<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/did_manifold_politics_intl.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/did_manifold_politics_intl.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fc6242627173fcd4e01739c4aa4dcf9d1fb8206d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/did_manifold_politics_intl.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/politics_intl", + "n_pre_directional": 39, + "n_post_directional": 15, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.5128, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.9333, + "did": 0.0872, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=4<10" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e2266fa0e04c3cd37c8d6984a59f92c4b6bda006 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T15:36:09.832000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF's 99th Division is composed of: +The 900th ""Kfir"" armored infantry brigade +The 888th ""Refaim"" combined special ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:34:00.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The market thinks you're leaning toward yes, your questions and statements also lead me to think you're leaning on the I",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:55:47.286000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I also want to note that the question only means anything if we use the daily updates or some permanent link. The real-t,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:14:45.607000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"No they don't, you read the chart wrong. Those are percentages for Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox), not Israelis overall.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:23:31.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think what's quite telling is that circa 2000, Ehud Barak offered the Palestinians a state and $30B in reparations (to",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T04:52:19.214000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Did you run a search to see what Israel is saying about this or do you take what Al Jazeera and Human Rights Watch feed ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:38:10.374000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I bought yes within 10 minutes of this market existing,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-06-14T07:47:13.258000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I have 1000 bucks on ""NO"". I so damn hope to loose them.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T23:05:41.836000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Sorry, I should've looked better before giving a dismissive response. The sentence which said the US ""runs"" the lab was ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:47:57.616000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Fairly promising start to the offensive, but in the end, Ukraine has just gone a few kilometers, and there is still a ve",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-04-25T02:42:48.473000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolut",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T01:59:20.350000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Given an equal lives value system, if killing 60,000 Palestinians prevents less than 60K*5K=300M dollars of damage to Is",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2022-11-25T12:51:46.200000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on ar",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T18:07:48.223000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"yep, that's my thinking too and that's why I bought more shares",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:08:11.434000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Both are actual propaganda. ChatGPT is used to advance the false narrative and generate misleading content. I'm not sure,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T13:50:54.849000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The Shujaiyeh neighborhood in eastern Gaza City is Hamas' last remaining stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip and the s,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:27.461000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm done with that strategy already, that's why I switched to NO. I've been holding NO for a long time. But you know wha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:10:02.888000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I suppose you mean the interactive map here +https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 + st",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T10:27:58.470000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm happy with my current position now so don't plan on selling further. +My reasons for selling what I did sell: +1.) T",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-29T08:31:48.155000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"That one leaves it open till 2030, this one only until this conflict ends. Could be a factor. Also I feel the reliabilit",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:27:54.091000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,I don’t gain anything from any of this. I gain literally $M 1 per new unique trader. Not worth ruining my reputation ove,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-08T07:42:15.085000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"yeah, I hold yes too, for me this should resolve any time now. Looks like he is reading us and updating the market now, ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:27:50.034000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"If Gaza is good and all arabs support it, why is there an uncrossable border between Egypt and Gaza? +Seems like Egypt w",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:21:50.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so, israel should accept the deal take hostages, leave and the story will be over, correct?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:21:02.003000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If someone would make that list, I'll be happy to award a bounty for it and put it in the description",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:12:53.769000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Naaah I trust you. I'll bet $10 you bet $150?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T21:30:11.181000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The odds on this market could change dramatically if the IDF captures the Rafah crossing. And they're really not that fa,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:15.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"1. I believe first point is completely invalid. +This is something like ""time self sampling"". How do we know, that Hamas",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..686f985acb29907c2abeccfa4cb147c156853f38 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T15:36:09.832000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF's 99th Division is composed of: +The 900th ""Kfir"" armored infantry brigade +The 888th ""Refaim"" combined special ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:34:00.836000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The market thinks you're leaning toward yes, your questions and statements also lead me to think you're leaning on the I",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:55:47.286000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I also want to note that the question only means anything if we use the daily updates or some permanent link. The real-t,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:14:45.607000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"No they don't, you read the chart wrong. Those are percentages for Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox), not Israelis overall.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:23:31.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think what's quite telling is that circa 2000, Ehud Barak offered the Palestinians a state and $30B in reparations (to",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T04:52:19.214000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Did you run a search to see what Israel is saying about this or do you take what Al Jazeera and Human Rights Watch feed ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:38:10.374000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I bought yes within 10 minutes of this market existing,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-06-14T07:47:13.258000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I have 1000 bucks on ""NO"". I so damn hope to loose them.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T23:05:41.836000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Sorry, I should've looked better before giving a dismissive response. The sentence which said the US ""runs"" the lab was ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:47:57.616000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Fairly promising start to the offensive, but in the end, Ukraine has just gone a few kilometers, and there is still a ve",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-04-25T02:42:48.473000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolut",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T01:59:20.350000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Given an equal lives value system, if killing 60,000 Palestinians prevents less than 60K*5K=300M dollars of damage to Is",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2022-11-25T12:51:46.200000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on ar",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T18:07:48.223000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"yep, that's my thinking too and that's why I bought more shares",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:08:11.434000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Both are actual propaganda. ChatGPT is used to advance the false narrative and generate misleading content. I'm not sure,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T13:50:54.849000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The Shujaiyeh neighborhood in eastern Gaza City is Hamas' last remaining stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip and the s,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:27.461000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm done with that strategy already, that's why I switched to NO. I've been holding NO for a long time. But you know wha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:10:02.888000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I suppose you mean the interactive map here +https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 + st",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T10:27:58.470000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm happy with my current position now so don't plan on selling further. +My reasons for selling what I did sell: +1.) T",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-29T08:31:48.155000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"That one leaves it open till 2030, this one only until this conflict ends. Could be a factor. Also I feel the reliabilit",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:27:54.091000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,I don’t gain anything from any of this. I gain literally $M 1 per new unique trader. Not worth ruining my reputation ove,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-08T07:42:15.085000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"yeah, I hold yes too, for me this should resolve any time now. Looks like he is reading us and updating the market now, ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:27:50.034000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"If Gaza is good and all arabs support it, why is there an uncrossable border between Egypt and Gaza? +Seems like Egypt w",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:21:50.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so, israel should accept the deal take hostages, leave and the story will be over, correct?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:21:02.003000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If someone would make that list, I'll be happy to award a bounty for it and put it in the description",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:12:53.769000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Naaah I trust you. I'll bet $10 you bet $150?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T21:30:11.181000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The odds on this market could change dramatically if the IDF captures the Rafah crossing. And they're really not that fa,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:15.786000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"1. I believe first point is completely invalid. +This is something like ""time self sampling"". How do we know, that Hamas",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1363e396c30893ad3ac578068f6a8857fcfb19ee --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T18:28:51.529000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"So far the only people out of work are translators and Wikipedia. +actually +and",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-15T19:00:01.110000+00:00,gcAS1ZE8xqOxJyWP4P11oEeGsKM2,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think it would be practically guaranteed by 2030, but as of now does seem to be unlikely. +Though some groups have spo",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-08T07:42:15.085000+00:00,z5uDQNGb2yXSMER6QLz0TTB37cF2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"yeah, I hold yes too, for me this should resolve any time now. Looks like he is reading us and updating the market now, ",YES,YES,True,True,900.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:56:34.549000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Media is not the only source. Information that helps: +Direct evidence and indicators that would support or contradict N",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:55:47.286000+00:00,xLuCOAXvfVglJGqpoWwSHVSZkCq1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I also want to note that the question only means anything if we use the daily updates or some permanent link. The real-t,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T18:56:36.138000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,From the IDF Spokesperson's Unit:,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T13:36:24.202000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"now that DALLE3 is being released via the api, we can confirm soon.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T10:27:58.470000+00:00,EzsnDabZsZTcpcD1UmChzRUn9Bk1,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm happy with my current position now so don't plan on selling further. +My reasons for selling what I did sell: +1.) T",NO,NO,True,True,25807.6419,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T05:37:46.746000+00:00,vLpL02Uo6OawixnbX4TWQEYBghs1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Don't uncritically accept either, but GHF has all the text messages. +https://x.com/GBNT1952/status/1950874165541834943",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:24:11.818000+00:00,4YslNp0QG9a1uTBd349rECdTNll2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I don't think that ground intervention will always be called occupation. I certainly wouldn't always call it occupation.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:21:50.786000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so, israel should accept the deal take hostages, leave and the story will be over, correct?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:21:10.513000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Have seen couple claims Israel is apartheid. But it seems that the only argument is some string in their constitution or,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:47:57.616000+00:00,Reojf0vF1KStl8jhf9dodil7Q433,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Fairly promising start to the offensive, but in the end, Ukraine has just gone a few kilometers, and there is still a ve",NO,NO,True,True,109.4727,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:38:28.639000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Because any definition is situational, I've tried to specify the criteria that seem best to me for actual operational co",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:12:31.788000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"is your main point, that blockade +should + be lifted?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T18:37:36.613000+00:00,dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,The difference between a couple of bombardments and a bombardment campaign,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:08:11.434000+00:00,SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Both are actual propaganda. ChatGPT is used to advance the false narrative and generate misleading content. I'm not sure,YES,YES,True,True,11110.3503,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T11:33:59.994000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,i never fully accept a conclusion from an international authority. A report has to contain all the logical steps and for,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:55:41.988000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I allow possibility that they did not know specifics of the attack. ""Our army has managed to conduct operation on their ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-17T04:44:26.657000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Since we're talking about it, I found this essay interesting, by Ze'ev Jabotinsky in 1923. No idea if he's correct or no",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:01:59.423000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Hamas are able to recruit new people, how ""eradicating terrorists"" is even possible? Hamas is a meme (in original sense ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-04-12T21:21:50.693000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"To be clear, this resolves NO if the invasion begins in April, right?",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-10-30T02:19:52.193000+00:00,nCLkxCrqUMfGSeCTn02SxlyparC2,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,insane to me that this was ever over 10%,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-07T17:11:51.071000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,My prediction is that there will be a lot of argument over how this market should resolve,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,97.0394,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T04:19:34.423000+00:00,ZKrLVq7VCmeGfo9YubStT7NhtH43,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I know how famines are defined. You may not have read this far, but there's three criteria for a famine: 30% of children",NO,NO,True,True,118.1571,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-23T15:49:26.769000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Something interesting I've noticed that makes one wonder about what we really know of the ground situation in Gaza: the ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:30:17.779000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"languages are not based on emotions, so they are weaker memes.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T13:50:54.849000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The Shujaiyeh neighborhood in eastern Gaza City is Hamas' last remaining stronghold in the northern Gaza Strip and the s,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T02:29:10.462000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Scale of the destruction in Gaza based on satellite imagery.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T09:27:50.034000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"If Gaza is good and all arabs support it, why is there an uncrossable border between Egypt and Gaza? +Seems like Egypt w",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-30T12:58:25.214000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"The USSR was dominated by Russia, of course, so your point is rather pedantic. Also find it funny that you assume I'm no",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T08:48:41.485000+00:00,9zpaWIkLNJcfx5kKfEV7Xb5Pq732,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Which territory did they retain control of?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:11:55.882000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Its easy to be/seem logical while also being in the wrong. If Hamas ceased fighting for their lives, they would also con",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:14:45.607000+00:00,JRVpcwby2MOBuMh4xNwPH5bMJE23,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"No they don't, you read the chart wrong. Those are percentages for Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox), not Israelis overall.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T16:20:05.673000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The IDF's 36th Division continues its clearing operations.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T16:02:02.229000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Thanks for your participation. That is completely reasonable to value your time more than to spend time educating me.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T23:31:27.461000+00:00,SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm done with that strategy already, that's why I switched to NO. I've been holding NO for a long time. But you know wha",NO,NO,True,True,3179.8095,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:10:02.888000+00:00,xLuCOAXvfVglJGqpoWwSHVSZkCq1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I suppose you mean the interactive map here +https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 + st",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:06:58.171000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"see, here is what market is for. I did not have any information about settlers kicking locals out.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T19:20:59.309000+00:00,dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Probably longer and have a clear strategic goal. Launching rockets randomly into Israel has been a pastime for a while.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:16:15.786000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"1. I believe first point is completely invalid. +This is something like ""time self sampling"". How do we know, that Hamas",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T08:38:03.881000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Actually slight correction, the pin on the map is put on the tall building itself, the person is standing to the east of",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:51:43.417000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Yes I'm sorry it was clearly a mistake but at least you'll get your mana back in a few hours (barring a divine intervent,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T01:59:20.350000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Given an equal lives value system, if killing 60,000 Palestinians prevents less than 60K*5K=300M dollars of damage to Is",YES,YES,True,True,900.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-07-31T19:16:25.699000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"https://youtu.be/REoVXbmyN5s?si=v4UorDy-KTIvADBR + Bernie demands to stop supporting Israel. Shows couple photographs.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-03T16:59:24.387000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Under Israel? I don’t understand.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:40:31.956000+00:00,vLpL02Uo6OawixnbX4TWQEYBghs1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think there are two answers that are both correct. (I don't see my job as to defend one side or the other, just answer",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T11:29:04.465000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it worked with west bank. The organised hatecrime/terror groups have mostly disappeared in west bank. I see the storylin,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-21T15:36:09.832000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF's 99th Division is composed of: +The 900th ""Kfir"" armored infantry brigade +The 888th ""Refaim"" combined special ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:34:00.836000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The market thinks you're leaning toward yes, your questions and statements also lead me to think you're leaning on the I",NO,NO,True,True,290.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:13:28.814000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,", this prediction market has a very specific question to answer: 'Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T15:36:50.290000+00:00,0lN2pUrverTn2J08buk2ieVmcml2,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,contradictory claims. It's up to isw to decide. It's said the railway line is the front line. If the station is the east,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T12:38:10.374000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I bought yes within 10 minutes of this market existing,YES,YES,True,True,30.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:19:22.307000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,I remember seeing it like this at least an hour earlier than the screenshot post but wasn't sure if it will be the whole,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-06T00:45:21.201000+00:00,vLpL02Uo6OawixnbX4TWQEYBghs1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I appreciate that you acknowledge you're not the most knowledgeable on this topic, so I hope I can share some informatio",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T20:40:11.652000+00:00,NHvMUUWE1qgYTAon9zagNKPDa9p1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,It is clear by now ukraine will win. The banned troll is always and forevermore victorious.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:27:54.091000+00:00,dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,I don’t gain anything from any of this. I gain literally $M 1 per new unique trader. Not worth ruining my reputation ove,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2022-11-25T12:51:46.200000+00:00,PNiqYrNgSfWKwO5Cyu76iO8tvnC2,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? +, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on ar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:15:35.639000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"so what is the point of holding both types of hostages? +Also, why Israel side is so sure their people are still alive ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-25T23:55:39.672000+00:00,a2BCa4nxVJg70AYkgp1adEpVAag1,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"that’s just the title, the full statement is more like “If anyone builds it using anything like current methods & level ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T16:21:02.003000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"If someone would make that list, I'll be happy to award a bounty for it and put it in the description",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T23:05:41.836000+00:00,fyTf6CNQevePCv4aPieOKBXZeDO2,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Sorry, I should've looked better before giving a dismissive response. The sentence which said the US ""runs"" the lab was ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1972.8835,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-06-14T07:47:13.258000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I have 1000 bucks on ""NO"". I so damn hope to loose them.",NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:15:31.414000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""polls of Palestinians show close to 3/4 support for October 7."" How a reasonable poll can be conducted if nobody of the",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-15T03:11:06.203000+00:00,KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Biden administration is sending $1 billion more in weapons to Israel ( +Associated Press +) +https://www.timesofisrael.c",YES,YES,True,True,11500.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:47:10.664000+00:00,3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"the Haaretz article says it was a representative sample. (Thanks for the paywall bypass) +The poll was conducted during ",NO,YES,False,True,30.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T08:27:20.304000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,It's also a pretty strong implication that the claims about the station being controlled by the Russians are true becaus,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:35:33.960000+00:00,vLpL02Uo6OawixnbX4TWQEYBghs1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The goal isn't to eliminate every single member of Hamas or person who wants to join Hamas. The goal is to complete remo,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:23:31.997000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I think what's quite telling is that circa 2000, Ehud Barak offered the Palestinians a state and $30B in reparations (to",YES,YES,True,True,150.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-26T16:42:41.060000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"In the current campaign, according to the State Department, the Russian companies intend to commission articles through ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-04T15:04:13.575000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"A third Israeli division has just entered Gaza, to the south. That makes three IDF divisions currently in Gaza.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T16:59:39.482000+00:00,4YslNp0QG9a1uTBd349rECdTNll2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel just has some form of racial Apartheid basically everywhere. Local municipalities in Israel have admissions commi,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:34:53.976000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,companies are providing ~ 1million tokens from mixtral at ... $0.00 lol. it's free.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T04:41:00.506000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How does the international community (entities like the UN, but also other individual countries) assessing the situation",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:04:19.445000+00:00,xLuCOAXvfVglJGqpoWwSHVSZkCq1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"you seem to be faking the map now, well done jack. +There was no update posted today as you can see here. +https://twitt",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-16T06:45:34.255000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"40% of Gaza City battalions only, not all Hamas troops.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T03:46:13.165000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It sounds like they would most likely be guarding Kursk, which wouldn't count for this market.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T08:39:37.040000+00:00,9zpaWIkLNJcfx5kKfEV7Xb5Pq732,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Man, the French Resistance didn’t get that memo at all. They must have been completely ineffective. +Billy Bowlegs must",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-16T18:50:53.661000+00:00,rYSC54UxlGUD9lwXlh3hVueKmor1,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Feel free to contribute on more specifics as to what the criteria should be.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T20:38:51.208000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Read something interesting related to the general question of states using AI: +China starting to offer officially-endor",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T12:16:42.828000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Israeli operations in southern Gaza:,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T14:17:50.518000+00:00,dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Nothing was “stated later.” You just didn’t bother reading the actual market description. Hope you don’t do the same wit,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-08T20:03:22.010000+00:00,ymYkF1kIESNs9DmR9F21oMf8YBh2,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"Y’all should nominate your markets here to be showcased: +https://manifold.markets/Austin/manifold-may-showcase-will-25-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:58:17.867000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Sorry, i will not pay to view every page that will apear here. 63% is significant, i wish i could read the article, but ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-14T21:05:01.897000+00:00,ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,Less than 0.5 km now between the closest red region and Bakhmut station.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T17:50:40.346000+00:00,cJdPIFnHMqO51FUEFY5oqNjS0bl1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"it was from their Twitter if I recall, it might be taken down.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:26:47.428000+00:00,xLuCOAXvfVglJGqpoWwSHVSZkCq1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"the updates are published 5pm EDT every day which means they simply didn't publish today. +There are conflicting reports",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T00:30:19.948000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,the Israeli Arabs are the same culture and people as the people of Gaza but live just fine in peace with the Jews of Isr,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:40:23.141000+00:00,8MwDN9DlXXhjKGSC0xc1JVbbz423,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Yeah, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, a high risk of famine persists across Gaza",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T23:13:55.186000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"It's now past 1am on January 1st, 2024 in Gaza. So I'm going to resolve the market.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T19:10:40.528000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The fact that they don't have tunnel infrastructure in an area is really a game changer it seems.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-03-14T20:04:17.128000+00:00,lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-deny-lebanese-report-on-march-15-war-ultimatum/ + IDF denies th",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-04-25T02:42:48.473000+00:00,dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolut",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T19:49:35.822000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The common sense reasoning is screaming at me ""Yes, of course this has happened"". But that's what the common sense reaso",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T18:07:48.223000+00:00,rybxBG1YfkbcoDfXsFf2QZop9ws1,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"yep, that's my thinking too and that's why I bought more shares",YES,YES,True,True,431.8622,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-19T03:07:37.628000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Israel, Hamas reach tentative deal to pause conflict, free some hostages +Under the terms of the U.S.-brokered deal, Isr",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T04:52:19.214000+00:00,vLpL02Uo6OawixnbX4TWQEYBghs1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Did you run a search to see what Israel is saying about this or do you take what Al Jazeera and Human Rights Watch feed ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:12:53.769000+00:00,lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Naaah I trust you. I'll bet $10 you bet $150?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3030.8258,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-29T08:31:48.155000+00:00,dKOk2zMKyrOTPZBLeSActdzpuxg2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"That one leaves it open till 2030, this one only until this conflict ends. Could be a factor. Also I feel the reliabilit",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-14T21:32:48.626000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"The IDF has tens of thousands of soldiers in Gaza, so it's not as disproportionate as it might seem at first glance.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T20:00:56.518000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"in the last two days i have seen like 3 articles saying that hamas popularity dropped, and 2 saying it grows. +All 5 see",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:19:18.448000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Same thing, what matters to me is whether the supply of essential services is controlled by Hamas or not, not whether th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-16T11:10:39.982000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"""Naming the neighbourhoods of Khuzaa, Abassan, Bani Suhaila and al-Qarara"" +So approximately",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-10T09:46:37.811000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,A leaked video showing Palestinian men in their underwear throwing weapons into a pile before being taken into Israeli c,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T12:17:12.068000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Israeli operations in northern Gaza:,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-24T11:37:03.572000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Yeah, I’m not surprised to see people falling for fake news but the “mercenaries” thing is especially ridiculous.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-27T21:30:11.181000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,The odds on this market could change dramatically if the IDF captures the Rafah crossing. And they're really not that fa,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T18:18:17.655000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"my ""position"" will be formed by the end of the month. +1=yes, 2=yes, 3=no, 4=invalid, 5= no idea.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T12:34:23.520000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Yes, I know what I wrote in the description that you misunderstood. I'm not referring to the well-being of the populatio",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-07-11T21:21:59.431000+00:00,faAZQRWR2YTPZJAYEXhw56ydDHL2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,Too vague to be meaningful. Arent rockets combat operations already?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T13:45:10.657000+00:00,pp3fg6e4EybziUJVfMKaDNDAOVh2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,basically following up on comments on this market I entered the youtube rabbit hole of settler VS Palestinian confrontat,NO,NO,True,True,1.1838,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T10:02:32.325000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"i agree, that ""it is not official famine yet"" is not enough to resolve as Yes. Why would you think so? +I question both",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T14:23:52.563000+00:00,IyXMcXMJ8SP1w0MEPtQdUWqPwID3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"let's assume that israeli are a killer nation, and make the next discussion step. Is there evidence that they provoked h",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T08:41:53.758000+00:00,Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Probably a few weeks? It's hard to say. The collapse process can last as long as they have strongholds with high concent,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e4191b0652a8c8d5e11d91e78ec8527a8eaa8bc7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,96 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-07T01:36:12.264000+00:00,lVc6NzP3DhV6olHD5R7iE2iPPmA2,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,It seems difficult to separate 'legitimate' political speech (especially misleading speech) from propaganda for this mar,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-05-08T19:34:18.701000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think it will happen, maybe even already happening, but we will not find proof before the end of 2023.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-10-30T02:19:52.193000+00:00,nCLkxCrqUMfGSeCTn02SxlyparC2,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,insane to me that this was ever over 10%,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-02T13:11:52.198000+00:00,2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I wrote that during the Wagner insurrection :D,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-24T14:58:21.210000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,How are people feeling about this question in light of the Wagner rebellion news? Will Ukraine become more bold or more ,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-12T11:37:13.396000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I don't think that Ukraine is even aiming to reach the Azov sea if the Kerch bridge is taken care of. They need to achiv,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-12T11:20:03.236000+00:00,XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Copypasta from the link to metaculus: +""For the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extend",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-01-24T16:38:31.108000+00:00,Reojf0vF1KStl8jhf9dodil7Q433,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"There we are at around 33%. I see it as being clearly possible, but tough.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-01-24T15:56:31.731000+00:00,Reojf0vF1KStl8jhf9dodil7Q433,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Real money market at Insight Prediction: +https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-03-15T19:05:23.582000+00:00,C0SG85uQ8BN4eFOkaRf6lvayslH3,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"They never will, ran out of shells.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T02:06:35.991000+00:00,CrPGjKJkCMd2MxE2spQ6aWMJh2P2,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"If this market were to resolve now, how would you resolve it?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-09T07:58:05.097000+00:00,a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I opened another market for a longer time span:,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-09T07:34:36.196000+00:00,a25wg4I4wTQdqSMRr2AyHfEzSGy2,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Edge-case question: what happens if there's a significant period of time (1 month) where Hamas doesn't control Gaza but ,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-07T17:11:51.071000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,My prediction is that there will be a lot of argument over how this market should resolve,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-07T16:04:55.905000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"OK. So it has to do most of these things/have control of most these things, not necessarily all?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T20:09:43.641000+00:00,GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Going to be difficult for the Israeli government if Hamas retaliates against the hostages,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-04-12T21:21:50.693000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"To be clear, this resolves NO if the invasion begins in April, right?",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-20T11:04:36.525000+00:00,rOygyJSsAfYxLThk36BU5iSlfdO2,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"> Quote-tweets are just retweets wearing a hat +ok but they kinda cooked with this one",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T18:23:19.445000+00:00,k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"Added M$2500 subsidy and boosted for $M10k. Can you add +a link to the book + from the description?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-03-14T20:04:17.128000+00:00,lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-deny-lebanese-report-on-march-15-war-ultimatum/ + IDF denies th",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T22:34:17.839000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"I see. Is there anything in the resolution criteria hinging on the wording 'Hezbollah against Israel,' and not the other",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-01-18T10:22:11.903000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-14T00:53:47.049000+00:00,K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"At 50/50 odds I think this is a fairly accurate market. Last I heard their public stance was basically ""Gaza doesn't nee",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-04T00:35:46.080000+00:00,KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Successfully launch or successfully hit? +Two very different questions imo",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T11:30:23.703000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,this is the problem with prediction markets right now. There are multiple overlapping questions with subtlety different ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-15T20:02:06.932000+00:00,D0LcMzDsrNe19b07Anuaj7rkIHQ2,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713644606212939951 +There have been enough false alarms in the north that I'll ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:01:48.623000+00:00,3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"75% of Israeli Jews do not believe there are any innocents in Gaza, per a poll from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. ",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T21:57:13.623000+00:00,3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The goal is expansion of Israel proper. The current war against Gaza is an extension of that. It will end if they can ac,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T21:09:56.983000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"since The decision was made by a country with advisors and specialists, should the decision be automatically respected? ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T20:52:06.061000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Will answer this below to keep this for nuking Japan. +Edit: The AI seems to have gotten mixed up between the reference ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T20:43:42.317000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Hmm... seems like I couldn't get my point across. I'll try again: +If France decides to do a ""cosmetic event"", harming i",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:25:30.759000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I was thinking more along the lines of France moving towards recognizing Palestine, for example. +A sensible stance migh",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T04:41:00.506000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How does the international community (entities like the UN, but also other individual countries) assessing the situation",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T20:17:49.546000+00:00,1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Yes, but this is generally how prediction markets work lol. Even if there's a dispute or disagreement on how a market sh",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:55:46.603000+00:00,1cr4qlB1WReHhDCyVhQmBrASOzF2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"""Is the US more evil than ISIS?"" +No, though in terms of foreign political/militaristic intervention, it's pretty terrib",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T11:36:25.324000+00:00,1o4AqQtPC1V0R7w5XyVEClJ8uaf1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Occupying land and then kicking the natives from it is close to Apartheid which is by no means minor and this issue also,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T11:27:15.924000+00:00,1o4AqQtPC1V0R7w5XyVEClJ8uaf1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"This has a good short-introduction to the issue: +https://www.un.org/unispal/document/a-hrc-59-23-from-economy-of-occup",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:47:50.837000+00:00,1o4AqQtPC1V0R7w5XyVEClJ8uaf1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You likely can't but you should refer to more credible reports and take evidence provided by both sides with a grain of ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:41:47.006000+00:00,1o4AqQtPC1V0R7w5XyVEClJ8uaf1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"What is your current position? And what does supporting either side mean - eg., are settlements illegal, is there a geno",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T22:23:03.487000+00:00,ffrs32XFpPTLArtxPsLgYeO0odr1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I'd imagine the correct probability is fairly conditional on your preexisting beliefs. +What country are you from? +Do y",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:35:44.179000+00:00,TlrmhHvAIAYOXPmaRJgYE8sKuRg1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"On Oct. 9 2023, Gallant announced a complete siege, stating, ""We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingl",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:18:28.081000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Indeed it has 82% support in WB and only 57% support in Gaza. This is notable because historically Gaza has been more h,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:16:36.298000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"The poll I have in mind is from December 2023 back when people could enter the territory: +https://www.pcpsr.org/en/nod",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:12:41.802000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Meanwhile actual polls of Palestinians show close to 3/4 support for October 7.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:12:19.700000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Something like <160, so <.01% of Gazans have died of malnutrition/starvation +as per the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Hea",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:10:26.753000+00:00,GSBHngag3UTwsdIcS0rfnKL07qB2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"That poll allegedly showing Israelis are so radical is fake by the way. Here's Haaretz, a left-wing newspaper. +https:/",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:40:07.440000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,What were your thoughts on it?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:38:07.636000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"they have to be brought over, they can't just teleport +also it is probably a gradual release of aid considering they ca",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:36:14.859000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Yes. Hamas wants to exploit the gazans and control the food supply for power,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:35:29.306000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Yes, israel is a jewish state, but inclusive of palestinians. Arabs have ALWAYS held representation in the Knesset and t",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:33:06.446000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"West bank?? +True. It makes no sense",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:32:20.288000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"How is eradication a threat? +Israel wants peace! They never would have started a war against Gaza if it wasn't for Hama",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T17:25:34.351000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Have you ever looked at +any + country’s polling during a war? +People say dumb, vengeful stuff when they’re scared, an",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:20:08.524000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-05-28/ty-article-magazine/.premium/yes-to-transfer-82-of-jewish-israelis-back-e,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:11:55.882000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Its easy to be/seem logical while also being in the wrong. If Hamas ceased fighting for their lives, they would also con",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T13:08:02.048000+00:00,NBw6afhgmHWb4pqOWvyzYQ9wBJj1,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Its likely that they use loud words like genocide and eradication because that is a real threat.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T14:27:54.391000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Just a couple of examples: +Diplomatic cables or official communications. +https://www.mofa.go.kr/www/brd/m_4080/view.do",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:56:34.549000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Media is not the only source. Information that helps: +Direct evidence and indicators that would support or contradict N",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:32:42.701000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"How does one of hundreds think tanks' suggestion for a strategy to create distrust between China, Russia, and North Kore",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:13:28.814000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,", this prediction market has a very specific question to answer: 'Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T11:10:49.085000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,How does this relate to the market?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-22T08:47:03.757000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,North Korean soldiers would not be the first foreign fighters captured in Ukraine - Ukrainian forces have already confir,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-21T13:09:40.832000+00:00,b2e9R7WYAhQgWSqokbRgLdjr2J12,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024? +https://ma",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T18:05:21.604000+00:00,zpPFobVthKPxCIdjGTaTQoT0jLv1,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Kremlin spokesman +May as well be a rock with ""NOTHING IS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA"" written on it.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T03:46:13.165000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It sounds like they would most likely be guarding Kursk, which wouldn't count for this market.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-15T10:40:43.108000+00:00,uDqNyh5nDgf8IAu3nv2v2DD7Q743,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"What is the criterion for 'YES'? Even if North Korea already sends troops, how would we know?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9bf10031776ff169e67fe5084d83d9fc1d209de --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:57:08.228000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"yep, i should not have trusted the market description as much as i did",decrease,flip,False,True,44751.7288,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",decrease,hold,False,True,4234.2606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,increase,False,True,11910.3503,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T05:40:24.121000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"let me know if you want to get out of your entire position at 33% and Ill make the order. +Curious to your reasoning for",increase,decrease,False,True,40174.7335,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T16:41:23.248000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"as previously detailed, scenario 2 is likely to happen if there's no moves by israel to make gaza less shitty to live in",flip,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:46:13.138000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Then the onus is on you to resolve based on what you wrote! The food and fuel and medicine and comms and transit is not ,decrease,increase,False,True,8000.987,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:50.192000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,That's really interesting. Do you have concrete numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,decrease,False,True,10597.7341,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:08:51.778000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I'm personally too much of a coward but it is the right thing to do in most cases. Plus, they probably wouldn't be hated",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:21:21.323000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It's happening: +https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-thr",flip,increase,False,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:39:12.505000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that you overblow capability of Hamas meme to spread. People around Hamas meme carriers should be vulnerable to b,increase,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True,True,359.1353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False,True,8617.58,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False,True,116.8477,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-28T02:00:49.737000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,We had an extensive discussion about the Chinese case. The rest are not related to governments.,increase,hold,False,True,8445.9101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,increase,False,True,1429.8095,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False,True,2795.5277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True,True,1257.5403,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T02:21:46.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Also, why are you getting on Israel while pushing the opposite way? Just curious.",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:19:21.963000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Just curious: did anyone else look at the Publishers Weekly sales stats for previous weeks and think how many books sold,decrease,hold,False,True,44901.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,increase,False,True,7831.1319,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T10:48:22.765000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"is that defense has a large advantage +For sure I agree that defenders advantage is a huge factor. Among people who were",increase,increase,True,True,77375.1132,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:39:14.132000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's hard to fin anything in this sea of comments but I believe he cited a poll, which was not only biased but incorrect",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False,True,162.1002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-09T12:32:29.074000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I will do it during the new year vacation, if said nation pays me compensation for possible bans and having to write the",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-09T07:40:24.408000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Russia claims to have reached the railroad tracks. ISW orange area is about 200ft from Bakmut 2 train station. +https://",increase,increase,True,True,390.0714,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-15T21:06:08.039000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,^there is more than a little doubt about those Russian claims that Ukraine tried to cross at Nova Kakhova.,increase,decrease,False,True,1109.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T11:36:48.500000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"There are reports of Russia taking areas to the North and to the South of the train station: +https://twitter.com/NOELre",decrease,increase,False,True,352.5798,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,flip,True,True,543.1429,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:46:10.233000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I am hiding their comments because they are clearly intentional trolling (see +https://manifold.markets/ShajajWjai/will",decrease,hold,False,True,3797.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T12:13:19.974000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I would indeed say that they have all been at least partially evil, though some less severely so e.g. the allies were le",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:29:03.455000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describi,increase,increase,True,True,6380.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:16:14.181000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,But to get back to my deeper albeit facetious point about state control: we’re kidding ourselves if we think parliaments,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True,True,8097.7341,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,hold,False,True,10597.7341,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T00:14:14.808000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It would draw more attention to the bad humanitarian situation and the destruction in Gaza, and the proximate cause of t",increase,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,flip,False,True,24780.7995,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,increase,False,True,7771.7478,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T20:53:49.348000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I'm happy to take the other side of that. The Russian collapse is going to be much worse than people realize. I have a h,increase,increase,True,True,292.0743,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False,True,1204.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False,True,1377.1727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,increase,False,True,6421.6248,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T01:54:24.434000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The Wikipedia link does not mention anything about the show post 2009,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,increase,False,True,12381.7341,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T18:44:39.810000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"The thread I was referring to was the one below with Semiotic Rivalry and AK. +Mustang aka Mark Ingraham is a banned tro",decrease,hold,False,True,3957.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T02:39:07.632000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,To be clear you are just adding informative detail not supporting with a thumbs up such an act as in accordance with you,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:34:37.940000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,what do you mean? That they didn’t have strong preorders or that preorders no longer determine the ranking? If the latte,flip,hold,False,True,16727.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:52:24.661000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The above comments on it being for the journalists safety disregard the fact that you're not meant to bomb journalists l,decrease,increase,False,True,798.6749,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T03:40:19.721000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think this specific act was largely politically motivated and didn't have much to do with security, but in general i s",increase,hold,False,True,1040.4805,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-08T22:13:01.928000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Put a No order at 60% in case anyone feels differently. After that we’ll be at almost 10% of my NW, the hard cap for my ",increase,increase,True,True,3200.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T16:04:44.189000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think the number of refugees moved is also quite important, as that's the reason why the rafah operation is controvers",decrease,hold,False,True,6703.361,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True,True,970.1152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T16:20:18.425000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,you are indeed confused. I’m talking about the preorders of other books released on 9/16.,flip,hold,False,True,17927.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T16:52:26.029000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Fuck it, I'm buying cheap YES shares at 18%",decrease,increase,False,True,431.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T19:44:27.142000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Didn’t Henry explicitly say he was 50/50 some time ago? He also is hearing both sides. But yeah I get the sense he lea,increase,hold,False,True,2450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:59:33.211000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"oh, okay, as long as it still exists! i think top-35 is still a ""bestseller"", because it's the extended list. it doesn't",decrease,hold,False,True,44751.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,decrease,False,True,290.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,flip,False,True,7665.1319,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True,True,918.6749,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:29.834000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,The base rate is a lot higher for books by this specific publisher.,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T08:40:58.737000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"The criteria are different. That prediction is >=100 deaths. Yours is ""sustained combat effort."" The sort of sporadic vi",increase,hold,False,True,189.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T16:20:39.433000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Everyone agrees it's happening. But a credible source needs to actually state that it is happening, rather than saying i",increase,hold,False,True,1864.2104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-31T22:13:55.443000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"""Losing Crimea would very likely be the end of Putin (~90% sure)."" +That's a very strong assertion. I just made a market",flip,increase,False,True,751.6189,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T23:12:41.613000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"#8 hardcover non-fiction, #7 in combined print & ebook",decrease,increase,False,True,47901.7288,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:58:43.745000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Also reading this now! Definitely interesting! I'm accumulating criticisms as I read though.,increase,hold,False,True,3614.9913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,increase,False,True,6750.2355,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:44:07.579000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I’m a little incensed by the fact you tag me here too after not replying to i think 4 of my points, and then imply some ",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:54:36.506000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,everybody knows Barnes and Noble customers are eager to hear what the rationalists recommend!,flip,flip,True,True,5154.0886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,increase,False,True,693.9814,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:19:14.026000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"publishers use the internal, online-only 35 book long list. NYT publishes the top 15 on its website",increase,hold,False,True,3050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T16:04:33.647000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,I think (might be wrong) that the ‘online only’ list is the combined print and e-book but it’s also just a top 15.,flip,hold,False,True,14345.773,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:44:56.675000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's not correct to call the Palestinians that Israel imprisons ""hostages"" because it doesn't imprison them with the goa",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:09:26.060000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"yeah that’s the feeling many people have from the outside, i.e. not being directly tied either to Israel or to Palestine",flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:29:39.257000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel's defense budget is something like twice the entire GDP/capita of the West Bank and Gaza. If the Palestinians ju,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T18:43:27.977000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"What I'm trying to say is that in the case of kherson there was only three bridges across a very wide river +Well, if I ",increase,increase,True,True,84187.1256,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T15:39:44.145000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"no, I claim evidence should be analysed for bias, but never mind, you are correct, I am convinced! +Really, I should ap",increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True,True,39928.6619,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T15:04:19.577000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,Insight down to 20% on this question (with a Sept. 30th end date).,decrease,decrease,True,True,2309.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True,True,13500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,increase,False,True,97.0394,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T14:39:10.087000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Multiple reports on Twitter about the train station being captured by Russia: +https://twitter.com/ilias90sam/status/164",decrease,increase,False,True,331.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,flip,False,True,16.5158,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:17:53.654000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The fact is that they've started to invade Rafah. We all know it. Biden knows is, which is why he stopped delivery on ",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:27:04.095000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a com",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,increase,False,True,39928.6619,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:14:08.441000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"My feeling is what gets on the NYT bestseller list is less to do with how true or important the book is, and more to do ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True,True,7478.1319,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,hold,True,True,688.7602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:13:29.250000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How do we know the resolution? +Like, it's high-probability, but - literally it's not 2024 yet.",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-05T20:15:25.410000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Ukraine announced they may have to pull out. The Insight market is at 65 cents, so this one is looking pretty low at the",increase,decrease,False,True,64.0954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,increase,True,True,2254.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:41:47.006000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"What is your current position? And what does supporting either side mean - eg., are settlements illegal, is there a geno",increase,hold,False,True,265.5206,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T01:33:09.046000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I would say around 2%. The geography of the Crimean peninsula is extremely defendable. Ukraine lacks the air and sea for,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-03-10T18:07:21.452000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Does US or Canada or the UK using it to generate press releases count? +Does an individual gov't employee using it count",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,increase,False,True,34788.523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:52:41.401000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Hamas releases the hostages and disarms and Israel maintains some kind of long-term presence in Gaza to prevent the re-e,increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False,True,3978.122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T03:00:53.934000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Judea and Samaria is one territory, who wants to annex Judea but not Samaria? No one.",increase,hold,False,True,4450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True,True,693.9814,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-20T00:50:54.618000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Both Superintelligence and What We Owe The Future were NYT best sellers (others I'd say were in this books reference cla,increase,hold,False,True,7699.4693,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T23:59:05.104000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help",decrease,hold,False,True,5156.4056,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T14:08:29.400000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I think there is a 42% chance that Ukraine controls significant parts of Crimea by the end of the year. Please critique.,decrease,hold,False,True,2430.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T19:39:17.179000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Are you arguing that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine and the market should resolve yes?,decrease,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..48dd5a6bd293bdbc6ae3c09c53b307eb2e9fcdfd --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T15:04:19.577000+00:00,Insight down to 20% on this question (with a Sept. 30th end date).,decrease,decrease,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T19:39:17.179000+00:00,Are you arguing that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine and the market should resolve yes?,decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:52:24.661000+00:00,The above comments on it being for the journalists safety disregard the fact that you're not meant to bomb journalists l,decrease,decrease,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",decrease,hold,False +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T11:36:48.500000+00:00,"There are reports of Russia taking areas to the North and to the South of the train station: +https://twitter.com/NOELre",decrease,hold,False +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,decrease,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:08:51.778000+00:00,"I'm personally too much of a coward but it is the right thing to do in most cases. Plus, they probably wouldn't be hated",decrease,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T14:08:29.400000+00:00,I think there is a 42% chance that Ukraine controls significant parts of Crimea by the end of the year. Please critique.,decrease,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,decrease,False +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,decrease,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,decrease,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,hold,True +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T14:39:10.087000+00:00,"Multiple reports on Twitter about the train station being captured by Russia: +https://twitter.com/ilias90sam/status/164",decrease,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T12:13:19.974000+00:00,"I would indeed say that they have all been at least partially evil, though some less severely so e.g. the allies were le",decrease,hold,False +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,decrease,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:57:08.228000+00:00,"yep, i should not have trusted the market description as much as i did",decrease,decrease,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:59:33.211000+00:00,"oh, okay, as long as it still exists! i think top-35 is still a ""bestseller"", because it's the extended list. it doesn't",decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T23:12:41.613000+00:00,"#8 hardcover non-fiction, #7 in combined print & ebook",decrease,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T01:33:09.046000+00:00,I would say around 2%. The geography of the Crimean peninsula is extremely defendable. Ukraine lacks the air and sea for,decrease,decrease,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,decrease,False +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T18:44:39.810000+00:00,"The thread I was referring to was the one below with Semiotic Rivalry and AK. +Mustang aka Mark Ingraham is a banned tro",decrease,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T23:59:05.104000+00:00,"Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help",decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,decrease,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:19:21.963000+00:00,Just curious: did anyone else look at the Publishers Weekly sales stats for previous weeks and think how many books sold,decrease,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,decrease,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T16:04:44.189000+00:00,"i think the number of refugees moved is also quite important, as that's the reason why the rafah operation is controvers",decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,decrease,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T16:52:26.029000+00:00,"Fuck it, I'm buying cheap YES shares at 18%",decrease,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T02:39:07.632000+00:00,To be clear you are just adding informative detail not supporting with a thumbs up such an act as in accordance with you,decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,hold,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:46:13.138000+00:00,Then the onus is on you to resolve based on what you wrote! The food and fuel and medicine and comms and transit is not ,decrease,hold,False +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:46:10.233000+00:00,"I am hiding their comments because they are clearly intentional trolling (see +https://manifold.markets/ShajajWjai/will",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1ea223ad31ace779bff729aa8bb9712d0770b7fb --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:34:37.940000+00:00,what do you mean? That they didn’t have strong preorders or that preorders no longer determine the ranking? If the latte,flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,hold,False +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,hold,False +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,flip,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,hold,True +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-31T22:13:55.443000+00:00,"""Losing Crimea would very likely be the end of Putin (~90% sure)."" +That's a very strong assertion. I just made a market",flip,flip,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T16:04:33.647000+00:00,I think (might be wrong) that the ‘online only’ list is the combined print and e-book but it’s also just a top 15.,flip,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,hold,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,flip,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,hold,True +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,flip,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:54:36.506000+00:00,everybody knows Barnes and Noble customers are eager to hear what the rationalists recommend!,flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:09:26.060000+00:00,"yeah that’s the feeling many people have from the outside, i.e. not being directly tied either to Israel or to Palestine",flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,flip,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,You can make your stance known now.,hold,flip,False +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,flip,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:17:53.654000+00:00,"The fact is that they've started to invade Rafah. We all know it. Biden knows is, which is why he stopped delivery on ",flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,flip,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,flip,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,hold,True +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:21:21.323000+00:00,"It's happening: +https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-thr",flip,flip,True +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,flip,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,flip,True +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,flip,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,hold,True +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,flip,flip,True +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,hold,True +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,hold,False +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T16:41:23.248000+00:00,"as previously detailed, scenario 2 is likely to happen if there's no moves by israel to make gaza less shitty to live in",flip,flip,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,hold,True +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T16:20:18.425000+00:00,you are indeed confused. I’m talking about the preorders of other books released on 9/16.,flip,hold,False +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,hold,False +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9bf10031776ff169e67fe5084d83d9fc1d209de --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:57:08.228000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"yep, i should not have trusted the market description as much as i did",decrease,flip,False,True,44751.7288,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",decrease,hold,False,True,4234.2606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,increase,False,True,11910.3503,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T05:40:24.121000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"let me know if you want to get out of your entire position at 33% and Ill make the order. +Curious to your reasoning for",increase,decrease,False,True,40174.7335,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T16:41:23.248000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"as previously detailed, scenario 2 is likely to happen if there's no moves by israel to make gaza less shitty to live in",flip,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:46:13.138000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Then the onus is on you to resolve based on what you wrote! The food and fuel and medicine and comms and transit is not ,decrease,increase,False,True,8000.987,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:50.192000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,That's really interesting. Do you have concrete numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,decrease,False,True,10597.7341,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:08:51.778000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I'm personally too much of a coward but it is the right thing to do in most cases. Plus, they probably wouldn't be hated",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:21:21.323000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It's happening: +https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-thr",flip,increase,False,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:39:12.505000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that you overblow capability of Hamas meme to spread. People around Hamas meme carriers should be vulnerable to b,increase,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True,True,359.1353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False,True,8617.58,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False,True,116.8477,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-28T02:00:49.737000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,We had an extensive discussion about the Chinese case. The rest are not related to governments.,increase,hold,False,True,8445.9101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,increase,False,True,1429.8095,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False,True,2795.5277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True,True,1257.5403,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T02:21:46.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Also, why are you getting on Israel while pushing the opposite way? Just curious.",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:19:21.963000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Just curious: did anyone else look at the Publishers Weekly sales stats for previous weeks and think how many books sold,decrease,hold,False,True,44901.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,increase,False,True,7831.1319,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T10:48:22.765000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"is that defense has a large advantage +For sure I agree that defenders advantage is a huge factor. Among people who were",increase,increase,True,True,77375.1132,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:39:14.132000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's hard to fin anything in this sea of comments but I believe he cited a poll, which was not only biased but incorrect",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False,True,162.1002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-09T12:32:29.074000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I will do it during the new year vacation, if said nation pays me compensation for possible bans and having to write the",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-09T07:40:24.408000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Russia claims to have reached the railroad tracks. ISW orange area is about 200ft from Bakmut 2 train station. +https://",increase,increase,True,True,390.0714,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-15T21:06:08.039000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,^there is more than a little doubt about those Russian claims that Ukraine tried to cross at Nova Kakhova.,increase,decrease,False,True,1109.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T11:36:48.500000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"There are reports of Russia taking areas to the North and to the South of the train station: +https://twitter.com/NOELre",decrease,increase,False,True,352.5798,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,flip,True,True,543.1429,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:46:10.233000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I am hiding their comments because they are clearly intentional trolling (see +https://manifold.markets/ShajajWjai/will",decrease,hold,False,True,3797.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T12:13:19.974000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I would indeed say that they have all been at least partially evil, though some less severely so e.g. the allies were le",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:29:03.455000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describi,increase,increase,True,True,6380.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:16:14.181000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,But to get back to my deeper albeit facetious point about state control: we’re kidding ourselves if we think parliaments,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True,True,8097.7341,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,hold,False,True,10597.7341,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T00:14:14.808000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It would draw more attention to the bad humanitarian situation and the destruction in Gaza, and the proximate cause of t",increase,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,flip,False,True,24780.7995,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,increase,False,True,7771.7478,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T20:53:49.348000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I'm happy to take the other side of that. The Russian collapse is going to be much worse than people realize. I have a h,increase,increase,True,True,292.0743,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False,True,1204.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False,True,1377.1727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,increase,False,True,6421.6248,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T01:54:24.434000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The Wikipedia link does not mention anything about the show post 2009,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,increase,False,True,12381.7341,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T18:44:39.810000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"The thread I was referring to was the one below with Semiotic Rivalry and AK. +Mustang aka Mark Ingraham is a banned tro",decrease,hold,False,True,3957.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T02:39:07.632000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,To be clear you are just adding informative detail not supporting with a thumbs up such an act as in accordance with you,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:34:37.940000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,what do you mean? That they didn’t have strong preorders or that preorders no longer determine the ranking? If the latte,flip,hold,False,True,16727.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:52:24.661000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The above comments on it being for the journalists safety disregard the fact that you're not meant to bomb journalists l,decrease,increase,False,True,798.6749,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T03:40:19.721000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think this specific act was largely politically motivated and didn't have much to do with security, but in general i s",increase,hold,False,True,1040.4805,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-08T22:13:01.928000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Put a No order at 60% in case anyone feels differently. After that we’ll be at almost 10% of my NW, the hard cap for my ",increase,increase,True,True,3200.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T16:04:44.189000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think the number of refugees moved is also quite important, as that's the reason why the rafah operation is controvers",decrease,hold,False,True,6703.361,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True,True,970.1152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T16:20:18.425000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,you are indeed confused. I’m talking about the preorders of other books released on 9/16.,flip,hold,False,True,17927.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T16:52:26.029000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Fuck it, I'm buying cheap YES shares at 18%",decrease,increase,False,True,431.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T19:44:27.142000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Didn’t Henry explicitly say he was 50/50 some time ago? He also is hearing both sides. But yeah I get the sense he lea,increase,hold,False,True,2450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:59:33.211000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"oh, okay, as long as it still exists! i think top-35 is still a ""bestseller"", because it's the extended list. it doesn't",decrease,hold,False,True,44751.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,decrease,False,True,290.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,flip,False,True,7665.1319,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True,True,918.6749,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:29.834000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,The base rate is a lot higher for books by this specific publisher.,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T08:40:58.737000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"The criteria are different. That prediction is >=100 deaths. Yours is ""sustained combat effort."" The sort of sporadic vi",increase,hold,False,True,189.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T16:20:39.433000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Everyone agrees it's happening. But a credible source needs to actually state that it is happening, rather than saying i",increase,hold,False,True,1864.2104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-31T22:13:55.443000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"""Losing Crimea would very likely be the end of Putin (~90% sure)."" +That's a very strong assertion. I just made a market",flip,increase,False,True,751.6189,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T23:12:41.613000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"#8 hardcover non-fiction, #7 in combined print & ebook",decrease,increase,False,True,47901.7288,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:58:43.745000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Also reading this now! Definitely interesting! I'm accumulating criticisms as I read though.,increase,hold,False,True,3614.9913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,increase,False,True,6750.2355,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:44:07.579000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I’m a little incensed by the fact you tag me here too after not replying to i think 4 of my points, and then imply some ",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:54:36.506000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,everybody knows Barnes and Noble customers are eager to hear what the rationalists recommend!,flip,flip,True,True,5154.0886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,increase,False,True,693.9814,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:19:14.026000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"publishers use the internal, online-only 35 book long list. NYT publishes the top 15 on its website",increase,hold,False,True,3050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T16:04:33.647000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,I think (might be wrong) that the ‘online only’ list is the combined print and e-book but it’s also just a top 15.,flip,hold,False,True,14345.773,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:44:56.675000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's not correct to call the Palestinians that Israel imprisons ""hostages"" because it doesn't imprison them with the goa",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:09:26.060000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"yeah that’s the feeling many people have from the outside, i.e. not being directly tied either to Israel or to Palestine",flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:29:39.257000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel's defense budget is something like twice the entire GDP/capita of the West Bank and Gaza. If the Palestinians ju,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T18:43:27.977000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"What I'm trying to say is that in the case of kherson there was only three bridges across a very wide river +Well, if I ",increase,increase,True,True,84187.1256,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T15:39:44.145000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"no, I claim evidence should be analysed for bias, but never mind, you are correct, I am convinced! +Really, I should ap",increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True,True,39928.6619,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T15:04:19.577000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,Insight down to 20% on this question (with a Sept. 30th end date).,decrease,decrease,True,True,2309.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True,True,13500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,increase,False,True,97.0394,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T14:39:10.087000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Multiple reports on Twitter about the train station being captured by Russia: +https://twitter.com/ilias90sam/status/164",decrease,increase,False,True,331.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,flip,False,True,16.5158,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:17:53.654000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The fact is that they've started to invade Rafah. We all know it. Biden knows is, which is why he stopped delivery on ",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:27:04.095000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a com",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,increase,False,True,39928.6619,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:14:08.441000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"My feeling is what gets on the NYT bestseller list is less to do with how true or important the book is, and more to do ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True,True,7478.1319,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,hold,True,True,688.7602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:13:29.250000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How do we know the resolution? +Like, it's high-probability, but - literally it's not 2024 yet.",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-05T20:15:25.410000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Ukraine announced they may have to pull out. The Insight market is at 65 cents, so this one is looking pretty low at the",increase,decrease,False,True,64.0954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,increase,True,True,2254.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:41:47.006000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"What is your current position? And what does supporting either side mean - eg., are settlements illegal, is there a geno",increase,hold,False,True,265.5206,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T01:33:09.046000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I would say around 2%. The geography of the Crimean peninsula is extremely defendable. Ukraine lacks the air and sea for,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-03-10T18:07:21.452000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Does US or Canada or the UK using it to generate press releases count? +Does an individual gov't employee using it count",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,increase,False,True,34788.523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:52:41.401000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Hamas releases the hostages and disarms and Israel maintains some kind of long-term presence in Gaza to prevent the re-e,increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False,True,3978.122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T03:00:53.934000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Judea and Samaria is one territory, who wants to annex Judea but not Samaria? No one.",increase,hold,False,True,4450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True,True,693.9814,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-20T00:50:54.618000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Both Superintelligence and What We Owe The Future were NYT best sellers (others I'd say were in this books reference cla,increase,hold,False,True,7699.4693,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T23:59:05.104000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help",decrease,hold,False,True,5156.4056,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T14:08:29.400000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I think there is a 42% chance that Ukraine controls significant parts of Crimea by the end of the year. Please critique.,decrease,hold,False,True,2430.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T19:39:17.179000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Are you arguing that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine and the market should resolve yes?,decrease,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9bf10031776ff169e67fe5084d83d9fc1d209de --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:57:08.228000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"yep, i should not have trusted the market description as much as i did",decrease,flip,False,True,44751.7288,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",decrease,hold,False,True,4234.2606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,increase,False,True,11910.3503,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T05:40:24.121000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"let me know if you want to get out of your entire position at 33% and Ill make the order. +Curious to your reasoning for",increase,decrease,False,True,40174.7335,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T16:41:23.248000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"as previously detailed, scenario 2 is likely to happen if there's no moves by israel to make gaza less shitty to live in",flip,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:46:13.138000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Then the onus is on you to resolve based on what you wrote! The food and fuel and medicine and comms and transit is not ,decrease,increase,False,True,8000.987,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:50.192000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,That's really interesting. Do you have concrete numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,decrease,False,True,10597.7341,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:08:51.778000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I'm personally too much of a coward but it is the right thing to do in most cases. Plus, they probably wouldn't be hated",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:21:21.323000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It's happening: +https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-thr",flip,increase,False,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:39:12.505000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that you overblow capability of Hamas meme to spread. People around Hamas meme carriers should be vulnerable to b,increase,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True,True,359.1353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False,True,8617.58,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False,True,116.8477,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-28T02:00:49.737000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,We had an extensive discussion about the Chinese case. The rest are not related to governments.,increase,hold,False,True,8445.9101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,increase,False,True,1429.8095,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False,True,2795.5277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True,True,1257.5403,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T02:21:46.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Also, why are you getting on Israel while pushing the opposite way? Just curious.",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:19:21.963000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Just curious: did anyone else look at the Publishers Weekly sales stats for previous weeks and think how many books sold,decrease,hold,False,True,44901.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,increase,False,True,7831.1319,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T10:48:22.765000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"is that defense has a large advantage +For sure I agree that defenders advantage is a huge factor. Among people who were",increase,increase,True,True,77375.1132,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:39:14.132000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's hard to fin anything in this sea of comments but I believe he cited a poll, which was not only biased but incorrect",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False,True,162.1002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-09T12:32:29.074000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I will do it during the new year vacation, if said nation pays me compensation for possible bans and having to write the",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-09T07:40:24.408000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Russia claims to have reached the railroad tracks. ISW orange area is about 200ft from Bakmut 2 train station. +https://",increase,increase,True,True,390.0714,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-15T21:06:08.039000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,^there is more than a little doubt about those Russian claims that Ukraine tried to cross at Nova Kakhova.,increase,decrease,False,True,1109.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T11:36:48.500000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"There are reports of Russia taking areas to the North and to the South of the train station: +https://twitter.com/NOELre",decrease,increase,False,True,352.5798,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,flip,True,True,543.1429,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:46:10.233000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I am hiding their comments because they are clearly intentional trolling (see +https://manifold.markets/ShajajWjai/will",decrease,hold,False,True,3797.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T12:13:19.974000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I would indeed say that they have all been at least partially evil, though some less severely so e.g. the allies were le",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:29:03.455000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describi,increase,increase,True,True,6380.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:16:14.181000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,But to get back to my deeper albeit facetious point about state control: we’re kidding ourselves if we think parliaments,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True,True,8097.7341,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,hold,False,True,10597.7341,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T00:14:14.808000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It would draw more attention to the bad humanitarian situation and the destruction in Gaza, and the proximate cause of t",increase,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,flip,False,True,24780.7995,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,increase,False,True,7771.7478,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T20:53:49.348000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I'm happy to take the other side of that. The Russian collapse is going to be much worse than people realize. I have a h,increase,increase,True,True,292.0743,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False,True,1204.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False,True,1377.1727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,increase,False,True,6421.6248,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T01:54:24.434000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The Wikipedia link does not mention anything about the show post 2009,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,increase,False,True,12381.7341,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T18:44:39.810000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"The thread I was referring to was the one below with Semiotic Rivalry and AK. +Mustang aka Mark Ingraham is a banned tro",decrease,hold,False,True,3957.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T02:39:07.632000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,To be clear you are just adding informative detail not supporting with a thumbs up such an act as in accordance with you,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:34:37.940000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,what do you mean? That they didn’t have strong preorders or that preorders no longer determine the ranking? If the latte,flip,hold,False,True,16727.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:52:24.661000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The above comments on it being for the journalists safety disregard the fact that you're not meant to bomb journalists l,decrease,increase,False,True,798.6749,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T03:40:19.721000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think this specific act was largely politically motivated and didn't have much to do with security, but in general i s",increase,hold,False,True,1040.4805,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-08T22:13:01.928000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Put a No order at 60% in case anyone feels differently. After that we’ll be at almost 10% of my NW, the hard cap for my ",increase,increase,True,True,3200.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T16:04:44.189000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think the number of refugees moved is also quite important, as that's the reason why the rafah operation is controvers",decrease,hold,False,True,6703.361,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True,True,970.1152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T16:20:18.425000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,you are indeed confused. I’m talking about the preorders of other books released on 9/16.,flip,hold,False,True,17927.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T16:52:26.029000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Fuck it, I'm buying cheap YES shares at 18%",decrease,increase,False,True,431.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T19:44:27.142000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Didn’t Henry explicitly say he was 50/50 some time ago? He also is hearing both sides. But yeah I get the sense he lea,increase,hold,False,True,2450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:59:33.211000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"oh, okay, as long as it still exists! i think top-35 is still a ""bestseller"", because it's the extended list. it doesn't",decrease,hold,False,True,44751.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,decrease,False,True,290.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,flip,False,True,7665.1319,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True,True,918.6749,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:29.834000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,The base rate is a lot higher for books by this specific publisher.,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T08:40:58.737000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"The criteria are different. That prediction is >=100 deaths. Yours is ""sustained combat effort."" The sort of sporadic vi",increase,hold,False,True,189.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T16:20:39.433000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Everyone agrees it's happening. But a credible source needs to actually state that it is happening, rather than saying i",increase,hold,False,True,1864.2104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-31T22:13:55.443000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"""Losing Crimea would very likely be the end of Putin (~90% sure)."" +That's a very strong assertion. I just made a market",flip,increase,False,True,751.6189,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T23:12:41.613000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"#8 hardcover non-fiction, #7 in combined print & ebook",decrease,increase,False,True,47901.7288,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:58:43.745000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Also reading this now! Definitely interesting! I'm accumulating criticisms as I read though.,increase,hold,False,True,3614.9913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,increase,False,True,6750.2355,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:44:07.579000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I’m a little incensed by the fact you tag me here too after not replying to i think 4 of my points, and then imply some ",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:54:36.506000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,everybody knows Barnes and Noble customers are eager to hear what the rationalists recommend!,flip,flip,True,True,5154.0886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,increase,False,True,693.9814,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:19:14.026000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"publishers use the internal, online-only 35 book long list. NYT publishes the top 15 on its website",increase,hold,False,True,3050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T16:04:33.647000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,I think (might be wrong) that the ‘online only’ list is the combined print and e-book but it’s also just a top 15.,flip,hold,False,True,14345.773,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:44:56.675000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's not correct to call the Palestinians that Israel imprisons ""hostages"" because it doesn't imprison them with the goa",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:09:26.060000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"yeah that’s the feeling many people have from the outside, i.e. not being directly tied either to Israel or to Palestine",flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:29:39.257000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel's defense budget is something like twice the entire GDP/capita of the West Bank and Gaza. If the Palestinians ju,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T18:43:27.977000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"What I'm trying to say is that in the case of kherson there was only three bridges across a very wide river +Well, if I ",increase,increase,True,True,84187.1256,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T15:39:44.145000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"no, I claim evidence should be analysed for bias, but never mind, you are correct, I am convinced! +Really, I should ap",increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True,True,39928.6619,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T15:04:19.577000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,Insight down to 20% on this question (with a Sept. 30th end date).,decrease,decrease,True,True,2309.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True,True,13500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,increase,False,True,97.0394,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T14:39:10.087000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Multiple reports on Twitter about the train station being captured by Russia: +https://twitter.com/ilias90sam/status/164",decrease,increase,False,True,331.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,flip,False,True,16.5158,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:17:53.654000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The fact is that they've started to invade Rafah. We all know it. Biden knows is, which is why he stopped delivery on ",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:27:04.095000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a com",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,increase,False,True,39928.6619,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:14:08.441000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"My feeling is what gets on the NYT bestseller list is less to do with how true or important the book is, and more to do ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True,True,7478.1319,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,hold,True,True,688.7602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:13:29.250000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How do we know the resolution? +Like, it's high-probability, but - literally it's not 2024 yet.",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-05T20:15:25.410000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Ukraine announced they may have to pull out. The Insight market is at 65 cents, so this one is looking pretty low at the",increase,decrease,False,True,64.0954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,increase,True,True,2254.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:41:47.006000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"What is your current position? And what does supporting either side mean - eg., are settlements illegal, is there a geno",increase,hold,False,True,265.5206,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T01:33:09.046000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I would say around 2%. The geography of the Crimean peninsula is extremely defendable. Ukraine lacks the air and sea for,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-03-10T18:07:21.452000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Does US or Canada or the UK using it to generate press releases count? +Does an individual gov't employee using it count",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,increase,False,True,34788.523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:52:41.401000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Hamas releases the hostages and disarms and Israel maintains some kind of long-term presence in Gaza to prevent the re-e,increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False,True,3978.122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T03:00:53.934000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Judea and Samaria is one territory, who wants to annex Judea but not Samaria? No one.",increase,hold,False,True,4450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True,True,693.9814,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-20T00:50:54.618000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Both Superintelligence and What We Owe The Future were NYT best sellers (others I'd say were in this books reference cla,increase,hold,False,True,7699.4693,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T23:59:05.104000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help",decrease,hold,False,True,5156.4056,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T14:08:29.400000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I think there is a 42% chance that Ukraine controls significant parts of Crimea by the end of the year. Please critique.,decrease,hold,False,True,2430.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T19:39:17.179000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Are you arguing that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine and the market should resolve yes?,decrease,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9bf10031776ff169e67fe5084d83d9fc1d209de --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:57:08.228000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"yep, i should not have trusted the market description as much as i did",decrease,flip,False,True,44751.7288,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",decrease,hold,False,True,4234.2606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,increase,False,True,11910.3503,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T05:40:24.121000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"let me know if you want to get out of your entire position at 33% and Ill make the order. +Curious to your reasoning for",increase,decrease,False,True,40174.7335,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T16:41:23.248000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"as previously detailed, scenario 2 is likely to happen if there's no moves by israel to make gaza less shitty to live in",flip,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:46:13.138000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Then the onus is on you to resolve based on what you wrote! The food and fuel and medicine and comms and transit is not ,decrease,increase,False,True,8000.987,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:50.192000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,That's really interesting. Do you have concrete numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,decrease,False,True,10597.7341,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:08:51.778000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I'm personally too much of a coward but it is the right thing to do in most cases. Plus, they probably wouldn't be hated",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:21:21.323000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It's happening: +https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-thr",flip,increase,False,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:39:12.505000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that you overblow capability of Hamas meme to spread. People around Hamas meme carriers should be vulnerable to b,increase,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True,True,359.1353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False,True,8617.58,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False,True,116.8477,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-28T02:00:49.737000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,We had an extensive discussion about the Chinese case. The rest are not related to governments.,increase,hold,False,True,8445.9101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,increase,False,True,1429.8095,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False,True,2795.5277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True,True,1257.5403,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T02:21:46.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Also, why are you getting on Israel while pushing the opposite way? Just curious.",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:19:21.963000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Just curious: did anyone else look at the Publishers Weekly sales stats for previous weeks and think how many books sold,decrease,hold,False,True,44901.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,increase,False,True,7831.1319,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T10:48:22.765000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"is that defense has a large advantage +For sure I agree that defenders advantage is a huge factor. Among people who were",increase,increase,True,True,77375.1132,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:39:14.132000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's hard to fin anything in this sea of comments but I believe he cited a poll, which was not only biased but incorrect",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False,True,162.1002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-09T12:32:29.074000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I will do it during the new year vacation, if said nation pays me compensation for possible bans and having to write the",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-09T07:40:24.408000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Russia claims to have reached the railroad tracks. ISW orange area is about 200ft from Bakmut 2 train station. +https://",increase,increase,True,True,390.0714,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-15T21:06:08.039000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,^there is more than a little doubt about those Russian claims that Ukraine tried to cross at Nova Kakhova.,increase,decrease,False,True,1109.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T11:36:48.500000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"There are reports of Russia taking areas to the North and to the South of the train station: +https://twitter.com/NOELre",decrease,increase,False,True,352.5798,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,flip,True,True,543.1429,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:46:10.233000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I am hiding their comments because they are clearly intentional trolling (see +https://manifold.markets/ShajajWjai/will",decrease,hold,False,True,3797.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T12:13:19.974000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I would indeed say that they have all been at least partially evil, though some less severely so e.g. the allies were le",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:29:03.455000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describi,increase,increase,True,True,6380.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:16:14.181000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,But to get back to my deeper albeit facetious point about state control: we’re kidding ourselves if we think parliaments,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True,True,8097.7341,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,hold,False,True,10597.7341,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T00:14:14.808000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It would draw more attention to the bad humanitarian situation and the destruction in Gaza, and the proximate cause of t",increase,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,flip,False,True,24780.7995,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,increase,False,True,7771.7478,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T20:53:49.348000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I'm happy to take the other side of that. The Russian collapse is going to be much worse than people realize. I have a h,increase,increase,True,True,292.0743,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False,True,1204.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False,True,1377.1727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,increase,False,True,6421.6248,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T01:54:24.434000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The Wikipedia link does not mention anything about the show post 2009,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,increase,False,True,12381.7341,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T18:44:39.810000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"The thread I was referring to was the one below with Semiotic Rivalry and AK. +Mustang aka Mark Ingraham is a banned tro",decrease,hold,False,True,3957.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T02:39:07.632000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,To be clear you are just adding informative detail not supporting with a thumbs up such an act as in accordance with you,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:34:37.940000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,what do you mean? That they didn’t have strong preorders or that preorders no longer determine the ranking? If the latte,flip,hold,False,True,16727.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:52:24.661000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The above comments on it being for the journalists safety disregard the fact that you're not meant to bomb journalists l,decrease,increase,False,True,798.6749,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T03:40:19.721000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think this specific act was largely politically motivated and didn't have much to do with security, but in general i s",increase,hold,False,True,1040.4805,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-08T22:13:01.928000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Put a No order at 60% in case anyone feels differently. After that we’ll be at almost 10% of my NW, the hard cap for my ",increase,increase,True,True,3200.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T16:04:44.189000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think the number of refugees moved is also quite important, as that's the reason why the rafah operation is controvers",decrease,hold,False,True,6703.361,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True,True,970.1152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T16:20:18.425000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,you are indeed confused. I’m talking about the preorders of other books released on 9/16.,flip,hold,False,True,17927.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T16:52:26.029000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Fuck it, I'm buying cheap YES shares at 18%",decrease,increase,False,True,431.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T19:44:27.142000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Didn’t Henry explicitly say he was 50/50 some time ago? He also is hearing both sides. But yeah I get the sense he lea,increase,hold,False,True,2450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:59:33.211000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"oh, okay, as long as it still exists! i think top-35 is still a ""bestseller"", because it's the extended list. it doesn't",decrease,hold,False,True,44751.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,decrease,False,True,290.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,flip,False,True,7665.1319,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True,True,918.6749,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:29.834000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,The base rate is a lot higher for books by this specific publisher.,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T08:40:58.737000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"The criteria are different. That prediction is >=100 deaths. Yours is ""sustained combat effort."" The sort of sporadic vi",increase,hold,False,True,189.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T16:20:39.433000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Everyone agrees it's happening. But a credible source needs to actually state that it is happening, rather than saying i",increase,hold,False,True,1864.2104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-31T22:13:55.443000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"""Losing Crimea would very likely be the end of Putin (~90% sure)."" +That's a very strong assertion. I just made a market",flip,increase,False,True,751.6189,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T23:12:41.613000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"#8 hardcover non-fiction, #7 in combined print & ebook",decrease,increase,False,True,47901.7288,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:58:43.745000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Also reading this now! Definitely interesting! I'm accumulating criticisms as I read though.,increase,hold,False,True,3614.9913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,increase,False,True,6750.2355,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:44:07.579000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I’m a little incensed by the fact you tag me here too after not replying to i think 4 of my points, and then imply some ",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:54:36.506000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,everybody knows Barnes and Noble customers are eager to hear what the rationalists recommend!,flip,flip,True,True,5154.0886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,increase,False,True,693.9814,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:19:14.026000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"publishers use the internal, online-only 35 book long list. NYT publishes the top 15 on its website",increase,hold,False,True,3050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T16:04:33.647000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,I think (might be wrong) that the ‘online only’ list is the combined print and e-book but it’s also just a top 15.,flip,hold,False,True,14345.773,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:44:56.675000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's not correct to call the Palestinians that Israel imprisons ""hostages"" because it doesn't imprison them with the goa",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:09:26.060000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"yeah that’s the feeling many people have from the outside, i.e. not being directly tied either to Israel or to Palestine",flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:29:39.257000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel's defense budget is something like twice the entire GDP/capita of the West Bank and Gaza. If the Palestinians ju,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T18:43:27.977000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"What I'm trying to say is that in the case of kherson there was only three bridges across a very wide river +Well, if I ",increase,increase,True,True,84187.1256,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T15:39:44.145000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"no, I claim evidence should be analysed for bias, but never mind, you are correct, I am convinced! +Really, I should ap",increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True,True,39928.6619,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T15:04:19.577000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,Insight down to 20% on this question (with a Sept. 30th end date).,decrease,decrease,True,True,2309.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True,True,13500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,increase,False,True,97.0394,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T14:39:10.087000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Multiple reports on Twitter about the train station being captured by Russia: +https://twitter.com/ilias90sam/status/164",decrease,increase,False,True,331.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,flip,False,True,16.5158,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:17:53.654000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The fact is that they've started to invade Rafah. We all know it. Biden knows is, which is why he stopped delivery on ",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:27:04.095000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a com",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,increase,False,True,39928.6619,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:14:08.441000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"My feeling is what gets on the NYT bestseller list is less to do with how true or important the book is, and more to do ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True,True,7478.1319,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,hold,True,True,688.7602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:13:29.250000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How do we know the resolution? +Like, it's high-probability, but - literally it's not 2024 yet.",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-05T20:15:25.410000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Ukraine announced they may have to pull out. The Insight market is at 65 cents, so this one is looking pretty low at the",increase,decrease,False,True,64.0954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,increase,True,True,2254.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:41:47.006000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"What is your current position? And what does supporting either side mean - eg., are settlements illegal, is there a geno",increase,hold,False,True,265.5206,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T01:33:09.046000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I would say around 2%. The geography of the Crimean peninsula is extremely defendable. Ukraine lacks the air and sea for,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-03-10T18:07:21.452000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Does US or Canada or the UK using it to generate press releases count? +Does an individual gov't employee using it count",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,increase,False,True,34788.523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:52:41.401000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Hamas releases the hostages and disarms and Israel maintains some kind of long-term presence in Gaza to prevent the re-e,increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False,True,3978.122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T03:00:53.934000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Judea and Samaria is one territory, who wants to annex Judea but not Samaria? No one.",increase,hold,False,True,4450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True,True,693.9814,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-20T00:50:54.618000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Both Superintelligence and What We Owe The Future were NYT best sellers (others I'd say were in this books reference cla,increase,hold,False,True,7699.4693,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T23:59:05.104000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help",decrease,hold,False,True,5156.4056,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T14:08:29.400000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I think there is a 42% chance that Ukraine controls significant parts of Crimea by the end of the year. Please critique.,decrease,hold,False,True,2430.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T19:39:17.179000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Are you arguing that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine and the market should resolve yes?,decrease,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0601d8a8b27bfcada2be493d1bccbeb378fc92be --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,220 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:29:24.246000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,What odds will you give me. People here can vouch that I'm good for it.,decrease,hold,False,True,3030.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T22:34:41.272000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Thanks for the suggestion. I have for the longer term horizon ones. (But not that market where it depends on the settlem,decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,increase,False,True,11910.3503,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:37:29.664000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Sure, the show hasn't broadcast for many years. But their society hasn't changed massively in the meantime.",increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:24:27.658000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"entirely arbitrary 'start date' aside, currently, having all the intl support, armament, and power means the israelis ha",flip,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-12T11:32:48.064000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"yup. This specifically (energy) was a no almost immediately after October 7th, no?",decrease,flip,False,True,210.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-22T01:54:07.515000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Russia has 700,000 soldiers on rotation in the combat zone. Why would they attempt to integrate 10-12k non Russian speak",increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:10:41.750000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The gaza war unit account has updated info. He uses satellite and other sources that sometimes only update every 5 days.,decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T09:09:22.590000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"They see no viable mechanism for Palestinians to lead the solution process +However, they also acknowledge +Israeli wro",hold,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,decrease,False,True,10597.7341,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-19T23:45:56.467000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Does the escalated, but still low, level of hostilities the last two days count? I suspect NO but would like to clarify ",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:16:45.983000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I didnt claim it wasnt a democracy btw, I claimed it wasnt a very democratic democracy at the moment.",flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,increase,True,True,2254.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True,True,359.1353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False,True,8617.58,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-07T17:15:23.095000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"Be careful, market creator has stated in posterior comments this market is only open until the conflict ends, even thoug",hold,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-29T21:10:49.074000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Would to be pre-2022 invasion or pre 2014 invasion? Eg if they were deployed to crimea to threaten Kherson, would that c",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False,True,116.8477,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T11:07:48.380000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"https://stratcomcoe.org/publications/hybrid-threats-hamas-use-of-human-shields-in-gaza/87 + IMHO, this is better to rea",increase,hold,False,True,157.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T14:00:00.725000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The incursion — which the military said was aimed at destroying Hamas targets used to attack Israeli soldiers — did not ,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,increase,False,True,1429.8095,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False,True,2795.5277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True,True,1257.5403,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T11:35:14.348000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,Great comment! I feel like Kherson is different to the land bridge situation in important ways and I actually take it as,increase,increase,True,True,24503.0069,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,decrease,False,True,290.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T13:20:50.558000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"That said, I would be quite surprised if ISW drew the map such that the line went over the train station. The shading me",decrease,hold,False,True,3470.8143,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T09:34:45.473000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I think the only real questions here are whether the market maker actually intends to resolve as they're claiming (or if,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-09T12:32:29.074000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I will do it during the new year vacation, if said nation pays me compensation for possible bans and having to write the",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-04T15:46:11.082000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,What would we trust as a resolution source on cutting ground lines?,increase,hold,False,True,1499.4277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False,True,162.1002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-03T12:08:32.689000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"They were already found in Ukraine in October +https://english.nv.ua/nation/dprk-military-north-korean-troops-are-alread",increase,increase,True,True,96.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T07:03:21.675000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,that's the People's Republic of Kursk. It declared independence from Russia. Ukraine might have to hold a referendum on ,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-09-09T15:20:26.473000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A while ago there was a big international journalistic investigation of ""team Jorge"", an Israeli company specializing in",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:57:17.733000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"if they had all the information they needed, why didn’t they bring the probability much higher? Because they weren’t cer",flip,flip,True,True,19504.7623,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T17:50:00.085000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"where can I find the reasons for each updates for the image? +And I am also curious where does this particular one come",decrease,hold,False,True,1030.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-10-07T14:31:59.111000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Do you have a rough threshold in mind? e.g. if Hamas ends up ruling 95% of what they currently control, I would assume t",decrease,hold,False,True,140.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T22:43:56.067000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"they do not have to do anything just sit there. Also no country is leading, so not US troops. Perhaps China or India cou",flip,hold,False,True,1.1838,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-16T20:45:47.693000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I'm looking to accumulate a No position in this market at 40%,increase,increase,True,True,1663.1963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-14T15:47:42.926000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,my uncertainty for next year is a lot lot larger than this year. There are 5.5 months left this year. There are 18 month,increase,decrease,False,True,40174.7335,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2024-09-30T23:03:28.635000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"IDF has announced they crossed the border in force into Southern Lebanon. +https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1840887",decrease,increase,False,True,14101.2026,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True,True,8097.7341,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,hold,False,True,10597.7341,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,flip,False,True,24780.7995,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:45:41.783000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"how do they have military operational control? +Is there anywhere above ground in Gaza a Hamas operative can walk unhind",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:51:53.642000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Well there is this +https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/poll-shows-palestinians-back-oct-7-attack-israel-support-",increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-10T13:09:49.956000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"was that offer of “viable statehood” include all elements of statehood, namely military control of the land and full eco",flip,hold,False,True,1.1838,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False,True,1204.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False,True,1377.1727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-01-25T15:11:28.824000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I don't think Russians are significantly lacking in tanks at the moment. The two major successful offensives Ukraine had,hold,decrease,False,True,150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,increase,False,True,6421.6248,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:47:50.837000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You likely can't but you should refer to more credible reports and take evidence provided by both sides with a grain of ,increase,hold,False,True,265.5206,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,increase,False,True,12381.7341,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T13:18:55.480000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,And as for what if the point falls exactly on the line between red and orange - I think that should count as YES.,decrease,hold,False,True,3470.8143,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-11T09:21:57.682000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"the IDF has no reason not too do such things, but Hamas fighters have no incentive to surrender en masse - they know the",decrease,flip,False,True,210.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T14:50:25.172000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"edited: yeah that seems right. Several potential hits came out on 9/16 though, so next week should be interesting.",flip,hold,False,True,16727.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-13T07:55:38.550000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,same. I'm not sure how it would resolve if it were to resolve right now.,decrease,hold,False,True,210.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:20:33.208000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"A figure of one-third was extrapolated from the percentage of adult male deaths here, these are all Gazan civilians Hama",increase,hold,False,True,900.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:05:28.242000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I would liken this to the CCP requiring search engines to suggest ""restaurants"" instead of ""massacre"" after ""Tiananmen S",increase,hold,False,True,2003.0373,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T02:22:54.468000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"ISW update today: +https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-15-2023 +""R",decrease,increase,False,True,855.9722,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-01-25T14:53:53.171000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I am no military expert. From what I've heard from analysts I trust, tanks are just one (although likely somewhat more i",increase,hold,False,True,135.5215,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T17:30:14.701000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"City of Rafah seems to include the Rafah Crossing. +https://reliefweb.int/map/occupied-palestinian-territory/palestine-c",decrease,hold,False,True,342.5507,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True,True,970.1152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:39:55.208000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"yes of course. But there are +many + releases every year and the same argument applies to all of them.",flip,flip,True,True,16727.1865,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T16:44:45.967000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Gallant: Hamas refusal of hostage deal forces us to enter Rafah; thousands flee city +https://www.timesofisrael.com/live",decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-22T08:12:18.898000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"How do you resolve this if they are deployed only in Kusk (Russian territory), not in ukraine?",increase,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:50:52.891000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"They are ramping up their deployment. They had widthdrawn quite a bit, but presumably this is for Rafah as the invasio",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:05.473000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"(For a minute, I thought there's no top-35 tracked by the NYT and available to the industry. If there is, it'd be a NYT ",decrease,hold,False,True,44751.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T10:52:53.819000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I thought we already have confirmations from Ukraine that NK send troops to Russia to fight Ukraine: +https://www.bbc.c",hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-08-28T13:14:37.405000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Not going to happen unfortunetely.,hold,decrease,False,True,1850.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:32:16.611000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"If you used any timezone other than local time in Gaza, I think people would not be very happy!",hold,hold,True,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-15T16:23:15.509000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"The problem is that the internet is awash with examples of people asking the AIs questions exactly like this, involving ",increase,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:58:28.741000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"""I'm not going to argue with someone who calls me delusional."" +There's nothing to argue. I gave you a link that explain",hold,flip,False,True,655.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:30:58.934000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,sources? or is this AI generated?,increase,decrease,False,True,3050.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-08-31T16:16:12.871000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah; unfortunate that he got to be the person doing the review.,increase,flip,False,True,21903.4472,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T12:38:22.329000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I am 50/50 about Putin losing power by end of 2023 and I disagree about the strict relationship between these. What's yo,hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-01T18:21:52.607000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Negotiations are moving along and the proposed ceasefire is 6 weeks. I think it’s more likely than not that Rafah won’t ,decrease,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T00:19:24.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"I don't see any evidence that the media has 'a vested interest in talking around the red line', given how eagerly they c",hold,hold,True,True,6557.8867,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-12-03T19:30:34.738000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Metaculus has remained below 20% on this question, FYI (and, yes, the resolution criteria are identical): +https://www.m",increase,hold,False,True,3300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-09T20:32:14.653000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Why you think Putin would respect some kind of agreement?,hold,flip,False,True,250.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-25T23:44:18.997000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Doesn’t ‘if anyone builds it then everyone dies’ hold independently of when it happens? A delay is good for those who li,hold,increase,False,True,19144.8819,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:58:43.745000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Also reading this now! Definitely interesting! I'm accumulating criticisms as I read though.,increase,hold,False,True,3614.9913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:26:21.162000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,coordinated effort by rationalists to manipulate the bestseller list,flip,flip,True,True,1944.6471,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T22:09:13.331000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,If I could key my brain into the platonic semantic space of “invasion” this would be much easier.,hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:21:20.848000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I don’t know but the four recent peaks look similar. It’s probably just random timing of people coming across candidates,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T12:22:12.920000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"that was one of the bad decisions made with this market—it should just have been published list, period. There +is + an",flip,decrease,False,True,14145.773,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-16T13:24:13.588000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"How would be resolved if the current level of hostilities will be sustained? Would that qualify as a ""sustained combat e",increase,decrease,False,True,147.5313,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:25:38.887000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,probably people are hoping to provide such strong arguments that he will change h is mind no matter what his initial bel,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T00:45:04.642000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Palestinian TFR of ~3.3 is steadily falling, and Jewish TFR in Israel is over 3 and holding while Arab TFR is below 2.5 ",increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-26T23:53:31.429000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"Funnily enough, this market hasn't really seen time decay",increase,hold,False,True,8126.2467,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-11-09T22:55:27.258000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,So how would the market resolve in that situation?,increase,hold,False,True,654.2606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T10:17:01.823000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"in this case, “apartheid” is just sensible security measures. What would you do as PM of a state bordering a territory w",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-17T16:05:20.911000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"I'm dubious about some of the Russian morale + dysfunction claims, at least the ones in English, because English news so",decrease,decrease,True,True,95.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T02:14:34.798000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Having already introduced examples towards resolution recently, I don't want to overcorrect by adding a new overriding s",hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T11:20:34.355000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"agreed. I think about it as pro-profit. A rational investor, which isn’t everyone with a bet, is focused on making money",hold,hold,True,True,16.991,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T22:14:32.812000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Yes, the map on their website updates daily.",decrease,increase,False,True,582.0446,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T20:24:16.277000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,People seem to be confusing the question of which side should be supported with the question of which side will Henry38h,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,flip,False,True,16.5158,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T11:57:30.281000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The images, which bear a striking resemblance to the early stages of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza last year, show th",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,increase,False,True,39928.6619,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:16:14.181000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,But to get back to my deeper albeit facetious point about state control: we’re kidding ourselves if we think parliaments,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:40:34.122000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Local Gaza time makes the most sense I think.,hold,hold,True,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T10:18:35.565000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Afaik the only reason the West Bank spawns much less terrorism nowadays is the apartheid security measures.,hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:35:09.351000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,There's a huge failure here to consider base rates. If soldiers were distributing aid to a town of 2000 people over a p,increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T02:44:02.772000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don't quite follow. +pro-Putin, pro-Ukraine, pro-Iran, pro-etc. I'm pretty sure the idea of a prediction market is to",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T07:16:02.871000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Are you deciding who is more evil now or in the sum of the war?,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:49:49.288000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Huh? I did read the article. I don't deny that in the cases the Haaretz article reported on it was the IDF. If you no,increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:26:07.841000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"In your excerpt: ""Similar rules have long been in place for Chinese social media companies"". This suggests such propagan",increase,increase,True,True,265.5273,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T15:20:57.981000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,I'm guessing that NK troops will be deployed around the Kursk region to push out Ukrainian forces without sending them i,decrease,hold,False,True,125.3232,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-15T02:13:45.899000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"Yeah, it’s a base rate. You gotta consider whether and if so to what degree the specifics of this particular instance pr",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,increase,False,True,7771.7478,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,increase,False,True,34788.523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T03:18:17.063000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I think that there should be some social cost to making false accusations of genocide. Why? Because genocide is a seri,increase,hold,False,True,900.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T14:56:17.590000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"NY Times higher resolution map of evacuation zone covers far more of Rafah. Looks like half to me. +https://archive.is/B",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-08-31T17:44:15.107000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I feel like this might be a case of ""all attention is good attention""",decrease,hold,False,True,42.6422,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False,True,3978.122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T13:48:18.346000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"it helps because (A) it's a highly influential think tank, particularly to this conflict, as can be seen via their other",increase,increase,True,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True,True,693.9814,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:27:04.095000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a com",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T01:07:54.681000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,", with how close this might potentially get, what does it mean to take a train station? +Do we care only about a specif",decrease,hold,False,True,331.8622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T15:49:10.606000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I do not understand what you are trying to say in the last message you sent. What do you mean by hunger? If you mean lit,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T15:05:07.224000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,It's based on some back of the envelope calcs. But also I don't think 2sf is particularly specific. If I thought 40 was ,decrease,hold,False,True,2630.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:22:06.059000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,<25% of Bakhmut is controlled by Ukraine. Narrows down the area that Russians have to bomb. I don't see how this holds f,decrease,increase,False,True,57.4394,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c9bf10031776ff169e67fe5084d83d9fc1d209de --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:57:08.228000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"yep, i should not have trusted the market description as much as i did",decrease,flip,False,True,44751.7288,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-15T00:28:35.634000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I just want to say, this war is one of those places where relying on secondary evidence is better than looking directly ",decrease,hold,False,True,4234.2606,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-21T04:31:53+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,I'm confused why people are betting so much against. This clearly fits both the letter and the spirit of the market. Cha,hold,increase,False,True,11910.3503,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-13T05:40:24.121000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"let me know if you want to get out of your entire position at 33% and Ill make the order. +Curious to your reasoning for",increase,decrease,False,True,40174.7335,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:35:35.200000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Posting again because this was buried: +From Wired Headline: +""AI Chatbots Are Learning To Spout Authoritarian Propagand",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T16:41:23.248000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"as previously detailed, scenario 2 is likely to happen if there's no moves by israel to make gaza less shitty to live in",flip,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-25T13:46:13.138000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,Then the onus is on you to resolve based on what you wrote! The food and fuel and medicine and comms and transit is not ,decrease,increase,False,True,8000.987,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:50.192000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,That's really interesting. Do you have concrete numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-14T18:04:30.341000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"https://twitter.com/2023gazawar/status/1790396949402665336 +Gaza war unit tracker +@2023gazawar +#Rafah + map update: (1",decrease,increase,False,True,712.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T22:09:36.801000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I'd see it as proper part of Israel if Israel saw and treated it as such. Right now neither side sees it as part of Isra,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:38:33.548000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,1:15 odds but I don't have anyone vouching for me so I think it might not work logistically.,flip,decrease,False,True,10597.7341,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:08:51.778000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I'm personally too much of a coward but it is the right thing to do in most cases. Plus, they probably wouldn't be hated",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T22:21:21.323000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"It's happening: +https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-north-korea-troop-dispatch-russia-is-grave-security-thr",flip,increase,False,True,2000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:39:12.505000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,I mean that you overblow capability of Hamas meme to spread. People around Hamas meme carriers should be vulnerable to b,increase,decrease,False,True,157.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T09:05:47.251000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,This market is and was crazy high.,flip,flip,True,True,359.1353,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-16T18:57:46.227000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"For reference, I just pasted several paragraphs from the + current headline + in The Guardian and ZeroGPT says it's 74% ",flip,hold,False,True,8617.58,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T01:36:48.113000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"we do indeed +know + the resolution ahead of time...",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T22:13:18.975000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Changed from what? I added some concrete examples to make it +less + subjective. Prior to these examples, it was just """,hold,hold,True,True,97.0394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T20:29:35.197000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Any thoughts so far? The suspense is killing me,decrease,hold,False,True,13035.3503,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-04T18:15:24.568000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"So, I had to run to the store before I finished. Another reason I am below 40% on this question is simply that if Russia",flip,hold,False,True,116.8477,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-28T02:00:49.737000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,We had an extensive discussion about the Chinese case. The rest are not related to governments.,increase,hold,False,True,8445.9101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:01:42.897000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Resolving this with the metaculus market is a pretty credible thing to do if folks refuse to admit an invasion has occur,flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:24:25.353000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,this is a good point. Israel is powerful. With power there comes responsibility. Edit: you edited your post. My reply is,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:40:33.940000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Team Jorge has been discussed ad nauseum here. There's no evidence that a nation state used their services, and murky ev",flip,increase,False,True,1429.8095,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:20:01.733000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Eh maybe not yet. But this looks interesting. +https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2600/PEA2679-",flip,hold,False,True,2795.5277,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:48:09.405000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,yeah even that function is much better in deepstate,hold,hold,True,True,1257.5403,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T09:11:20.365000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I think the market is roughly correctly values because of the phrase "" +find out in 2023"". +It can be hard to tell if s",decrease,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T02:21:46.997000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Also, why are you getting on Israel while pushing the opposite way? Just curious.",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-21T23:27:24.944000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"There are hints that make me think that he cares. Mobilisation is ""partial"", downplayed by the govt media, and was intro",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T22:19:21.963000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Just curious: did anyone else look at the Publishers Weekly sales stats for previous weeks and think how many books sold,decrease,hold,False,True,44901.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T22:00:51.317000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I'd like to interject that the transportation hubs are demonstrably not open to a majority of the population. Rafah cros,hold,increase,False,True,7831.1319,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-13T10:48:22.765000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"is that defense has a large advantage +For sure I agree that defenders advantage is a huge factor. Among people who were",increase,increase,True,True,77375.1132,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T19:39:14.132000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's hard to fin anything in this sea of comments but I believe he cited a poll, which was not only biased but incorrect",increase,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:23:41.171000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"A further clarification question for + could be... is Palestine considered a nation state for the purposes of this mark",decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T18:45:08.036000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it clearly and openly states ""The questions raised by the Committee for the Future of the Finnish Parliament are related",flip,hold,False,True,162.1002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:02:51.812000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"I updated the market description to add a warning/clarification +Mod Update: it is unclear whether the list is 15 or 35",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-09T12:32:29.074000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I will do it during the new year vacation, if said nation pays me compensation for possible bans and having to write the",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-09T07:40:24.408000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Russia claims to have reached the railroad tracks. ISW orange area is about 200ft from Bakmut 2 train station. +https://",increase,increase,True,True,390.0714,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-15T21:06:08.039000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,^there is more than a little doubt about those Russian claims that Ukraine tried to cross at Nova Kakhova.,increase,decrease,False,True,1109.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-17T11:36:48.500000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"There are reports of Russia taking areas to the North and to the South of the train station: +https://twitter.com/NOELre",decrease,increase,False,True,352.5798,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T13:26:48.247000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"yes! for the lulz. We can just ignore that the rest of the world is denying that Israel has invaded rafah. +There's a ",flip,flip,True,True,543.1429,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T09:03:22.529000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"You post a Media zona link to claim that “nowhere near 30,000 Russian soldiers are dying every year”, but the link shows",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T10:46:10.233000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"I am hiding their comments because they are clearly intentional trolling (see +https://manifold.markets/ShajajWjai/will",decrease,hold,False,True,3797.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T12:13:19.974000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I would indeed say that they have all been at least partially evil, though some less severely so e.g. the allies were le",decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-20T09:18:22.065000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"I'm pretty optimistic about YES here, not 100% sure, but certainly above 32%. Reasons: + - after Kherson Ukraine control",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T19:39:49.247000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Alright, but it would be better to just use an estimate from an organization that's an expert on this stuff. The World F",flip,hold,False,True,118.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-06T20:44:05.259000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,1. Please note that the previous discussions on Team Jorge had 7 mentions of that term and they were inconclusive. Peopl,decrease,hold,False,True,2200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:38:20.488000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,It was under 50 because one person bought 100M no right at the start before more liquidity was added,flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-24T05:06:30.760000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"“Deceptive” is not a requirement for something to be propaganda. It just needs to be “ +ideas, facts, or allegations spr",hold,hold,True,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T17:29:03.455000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describi,increase,increase,True,True,6380.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:27:35.042000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"The claims have yet to be independently verified, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov slamming the reports as “fake new",decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T21:36:49.842000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,UN interposition force on some reasonable line separating mostly Palestinian from mostly Israeli land. Does not have to ,flip,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:16:14.181000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,But to get back to my deeper albeit facetious point about state control: we’re kidding ourselves if we think parliaments,increase,hold,False,True,123.5354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T19:11:01.666000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Update on the fighting in Rafah The IDF is on its way to further progress in Rafah, it seems that at the moment the IDF ",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T14:09:23.243000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"would prefer making a side bet in cash against someone on the bullish end, as that would be way more profitable for me.",flip,flip,True,True,8097.7341,FLIP,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T15:53:55.720000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,Sounds good. Let's Venmo/Paypal/Zelle on Jan 1st 2024.,flip,hold,False,True,10597.7341,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T00:14:14.808000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It would draw more attention to the bad humanitarian situation and the destruction in Gaza, and the proximate cause of t",increase,flip,False,True,900.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-20T20:28:36.653000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,That's funny :) But if Russian forces claim to have full control over the station and want this to be considered confirm,hold,flip,False,True,24780.7995,FLIP,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2025-01-01T18:11:39.297000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Resolves as NO. There is ample evidence of North Korean troops in Russia (Kursk) but none suggesting their presence in U,hold,increase,False,True,7771.7478,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-05-27T20:53:49.348000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I'm happy to take the other side of that. The Russian collapse is going to be much worse than people realize. I have a h,increase,increase,True,True,292.0743,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:23:47.636000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"simply put, the israelis' own news sources confirm, hamas has offered all the hostages in exchange for peace, which the ",flip,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-08-16T23:58:31.805000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I think 5-6% if we're being real. The only reason the real money markets arent lower in real money markets is because pl,hold,decrease,False,True,1204.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-07-12T18:41:03.004000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"i think most of the focus recently has been on Prigozhin and wagner.. or atleast that's what I've been looking at, +i re",flip,hold,False,True,1377.1727,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-09T12:58:27.304000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Agree that Israel should offer Palestinians withdrawal and viable statehood. Thing is, that offer’s already been made. C",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:01:36.948000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"a smarter version of me would mute this market. +Nevertheless, as I said below: +""If the US enlists blackwater to go ",hold,increase,False,True,6421.6248,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T01:54:24.434000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The Wikipedia link does not mention anything about the show post 2009,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-15T18:36:58.883000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"blocking military resupplies to Ukraine would require +all + of the following: +Capture Mariupol blocking off the land",flip,increase,False,True,12381.7341,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-12T18:44:39.810000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"The thread I was referring to was the one below with Semiotic Rivalry and AK. +Mustang aka Mark Ingraham is a banned tro",decrease,hold,False,True,3957.7689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T02:39:07.632000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,To be clear you are just adding informative detail not supporting with a thumbs up such an act as in accordance with you,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:34:37.940000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,what do you mean? That they didn’t have strong preorders or that preorders no longer determine the ranking? If the latte,flip,hold,False,True,16727.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-17T22:23:02.656000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"Where is the evidence? There are unsubstantiated rumours of a number ""far below 3000."" Your article's headline is a ques",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:52:24.661000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,The above comments on it being for the journalists safety disregard the fact that you're not meant to bomb journalists l,decrease,increase,False,True,798.6749,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-06T03:40:19.721000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think this specific act was largely politically motivated and didn't have much to do with security, but in general i s",increase,hold,False,True,1040.4805,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:43:09.258000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Generating text on keywords and mobilizing bots doesn't require LLMs,increase,increase,True,True,1501.8046,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-11-28T22:29:13.557000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"12:30 p.m. EST, November 22, 2024 +North Korean military members reported to be in Mariupol and Kharkiv region + From CN",decrease,increase,False,True,563.6571,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T04:34:31.975000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,would rocket launches across the border count?,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-08T22:13:01.928000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"Put a No order at 60% in case anyone feels differently. After that we’ll be at almost 10% of my NW, the hard cap for my ",increase,increase,True,True,3200.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-07T16:04:44.189000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"i think the number of refugees moved is also quite important, as that's the reason why the rafah operation is controvers",decrease,hold,False,True,6703.361,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T21:35:58.939000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"according to Ukrainian sources, it's been under Rus control since April 14th +https://deepstatemap.live/#15/48.5958/37.9",flip,flip,True,True,970.1152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T16:20:18.425000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,you are indeed confused. I’m talking about the preorders of other books released on 9/16.,flip,hold,False,True,17927.1865,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-19T16:52:26.029000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Fuck it, I'm buying cheap YES shares at 18%",decrease,increase,False,True,431.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T19:44:27.142000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Didn’t Henry explicitly say he was 50/50 some time ago? He also is hearing both sides. But yeah I get the sense he lea,increase,hold,False,True,2450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:53:15.973000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"a popular and pretty good source, though maybe he could stop posting the terrorist videos. +https://twitter.com/sentde",flip,hold,False,True,190.2625,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T16:59:33.211000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"oh, okay, as long as it still exists! i think top-35 is still a ""bestseller"", because it's the extended list. it doesn't",decrease,hold,False,True,44751.7288,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-07T00:18:00.610000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,imo if i acknowledged all of the casualties and atrocities that israel has committed over the past year as you have in t,hold,decrease,False,True,290.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:42:03.733000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"There's basically been a bunch of back and forth about this already, and the TL;DR is that the description was always me",hold,flip,False,True,7665.1319,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T16:25:55.167000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"We simply look at intent and proof of trying to not be evil +This is why to prove a crime there must be intent but even",hold,hold,True,True,918.6749,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T23:32:29.834000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,The base rate is a lot higher for books by this specific publisher.,increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:38:03.044000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,pre-orders impact the ranking only during the first week. If a book was released two years ago and is higher in the over,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-11-02T08:40:58.737000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"The criteria are different. That prediction is >=100 deaths. Yours is ""sustained combat effort."" The sort of sporadic vi",increase,hold,False,True,189.8124,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-19T16:20:39.433000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Everyone agrees it's happening. But a credible source needs to actually state that it is happening, rather than saying i",increase,hold,False,True,1864.2104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2022-12-31T22:13:55.443000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,"""Losing Crimea would very likely be the end of Putin (~90% sure)."" +That's a very strong assertion. I just made a market",flip,increase,False,True,751.6189,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:10:20.087000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"in a totally different world in which we don’t build it like we do, I guess. Please point me to the passage in the book ",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T23:12:41.613000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"#8 hardcover non-fiction, #7 in combined print & ebook",decrease,increase,False,True,47901.7288,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-30T08:49:20.661000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"I don’t quite follow how you require diplomatic cables (which can never be wrong, or contain unconfirmed Intel assessmen",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:58:43.745000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,Also reading this now! Definitely interesting! I'm accumulating criticisms as I read though.,increase,hold,False,True,3614.9913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-25T18:26:53.860000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Then, shouldn't it long ago resolve?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-17T23:18:51.208000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"I was gonna post this! Seems like movement for points 1 and 2. We knew there was starvation, but it’s creating more crim",hold,increase,False,True,6750.2355,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-31T00:22:54.862000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How on earth was this resolved YES? +""On January 1st"" - We aren't there yet +""Enforce laws and governance"" - No, there ",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T15:44:07.579000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"I’m a little incensed by the fact you tag me here too after not replying to i think 4 of my points, and then imply some ",increase,decrease,False,True,200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-19T19:54:36.506000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,everybody knows Barnes and Noble customers are eager to hear what the rationalists recommend!,flip,flip,True,True,5154.0886,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:42:04.153000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Not sure exactly what constitutes 'Rafah' on the isw map, but if and when this is indeed accurate, agreed that 20-30% i",hold,increase,False,True,693.9814,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T19:18:55.506000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Liquidity added! I plan to weigh in later in the month, but I agree with the consensus that the market maker will probab",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:19:14.026000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"publishers use the internal, online-only 35 book long list. NYT publishes the top 15 on its website",increase,hold,False,True,3050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T16:04:33.647000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,I think (might be wrong) that the ‘online only’ list is the combined print and e-book but it’s also just a top 15.,flip,hold,False,True,14345.773,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-19T01:43:09.573000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Then I'm not sure where you're going with this?,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T18:44:56.675000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"It's not correct to call the Palestinians that Israel imprisons ""hostages"" because it doesn't imprison them with the goa",increase,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T19:09:26.060000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"yeah that’s the feeling many people have from the outside, i.e. not being directly tied either to Israel or to Palestine",flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T18:29:39.257000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Israel's defense budget is something like twice the entire GDP/capita of the West Bank and Gaza. If the Palestinians ju,increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-01T23:37:03.886000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Israel holds all the cards, but if they want to minimize citizen deaths(of their own, let alone non-israelis) and get a ",flip,flip,True,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T18:43:27.977000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,"What I'm trying to say is that in the case of kherson there was only three bridges across a very wide river +Well, if I ",increase,increase,True,True,84187.1256,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-23T15:39:44.145000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"no, I claim evidence should be analysed for bias, but never mind, you are correct, I am convinced! +Really, I should ap",increase,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-18T19:06:50.999000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"“we recognize not-like-our-scriptures on sight” +(it’s a joke! sorry 🥺; reverse stupidity is indeed not intelligence, a",hold,hold,True,True,39928.6619,HOLD,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-06-22T15:04:19.577000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,Insight down to 20% on this question (with a Sept. 30th end date).,decrease,decrease,True,True,2309.4727,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T12:31:20.387000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"""In early 2023, Venezuelan state media outlets used social media to distribute videos produced by Synthesia that depicte",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-21T16:43:33.458000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,">The researchers found over 6,000 accounts pushing out over 27,000 posts about the war. The accounts were likely automat",decrease,increase,False,True,80.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T20:10:42.858000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,I have the largest ‘Yes’ position (idk if that means anything) — I’m not in a rush for this market to resolve. I feel co,hold,hold,True,True,13500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-08T22:40:52.892000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,The original Yes standard has not been removed or changed. I did however add other examples surrounding it in case we en,hold,increase,False,True,97.0394,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-18T14:39:10.087000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Multiple reports on Twitter about the train station being captured by Russia: +https://twitter.com/ilias90sam/status/164",decrease,increase,False,True,331.8622,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T00:29:44.915000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Feel free to ask for any sources on claims, I don't feel like searching right now for each and every claim, but I can lo",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T07:34:14.495000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"The report and its citations only reach a YES threshold under a very boring definition. If China's regulation qualifies,",decrease,flip,False,True,16.5158,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-09T23:17:53.654000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"The fact is that they've started to invade Rafah. We all know it. Biden knows is, which is why he stopped delivery on ",flip,flip,True,True,190.2625,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-06-28T12:27:04.095000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"it could have happened for way longer, GPT-3 finished training roughly 3 years ago and was good enough, and that's a com",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-19T14:10:13.824000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,yeah if you don’t buy a copy for everyone you know and don’t make a donation to miri and don’t get tested for hidden ai ,hold,increase,False,True,39928.6619,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T06:15:11.958000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"@thatcher1215 + alright so some clarifications based what the author has said elsewhere: +you (the resolver) claim elsew",flip,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T15:07:38.269000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,This is one element that has to be weighed together with others. I don’t think it is productive to get into the details ,flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-04T15:28:57.382000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,it would give us a prior. There is survey data broken down by country about the opinions people have on Israel/Palestine,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-14T20:14:08.441000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"My feeling is what gets on the NYT bestseller list is less to do with how true or important the book is, and more to do ",increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-29T19:10:23.931000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,I don’t endorse Domer’s name-calling but I do think you should take a step back and reconsider how your descriptions are,hold,hold,True,True,7478.1319,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-13T10:46:14.165000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"t.me/supernova_plus + +train station actively shelled +https://twitter.com/aldin_aba/status/1646385036227215361?s=20 +",hold,hold,True,True,688.7602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-10-04T06:36:19.795000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I'm reading this now and it sounds like bots doing astroturfing, but using human written material. That's not new, I thi",increase,hold,False,True,1000.8046,HOLD,qwen3:32b +RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3,2023-12-30T23:13:29.250000+00:00,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,"How do we know the resolution? +Like, it's high-probability, but - literally it's not 2024 yet.",increase,hold,False,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T22:16:59.937000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,where does the 30% estimate come from? I'd be surprised if it's even half that given that pretty much every other day th,decrease,decrease,True,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-05T20:15:25.410000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Ukraine announced they may have to pull out. The Insight market is at 65 cents, so this one is looking pretty low at the",increase,decrease,False,True,64.0954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-26T10:29:12.301000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,"happy to concede: in principle. It’s conceptually possible, if we start building AI completely differently from scratch.",hold,flip,False,True,19144.8819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-12-22T19:01:16.131000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I take +generating + propaganda as one of the essential criteria for resolution. The question is how substantial to the",increase,increase,True,True,2254.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-02T10:41:47.006000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"What is your current position? And what does supporting either side mean - eg., are settlements illegal, is there a geno",increase,hold,False,True,265.5206,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-09T01:33:09.046000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I would say around 2%. The geography of the Crimean peninsula is extremely defendable. Ukraine lacks the air and sea for,decrease,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T17:56:28.021000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66727459 +maybe this was posted before (sry didnt look through 222 comments) +but I ",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-03-10T18:07:21.452000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"Does US or Canada or the UK using it to generate press releases count? +Does an individual gov't employee using it count",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-12T06:08:29.604000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"well I found it funny, too +Anyway, what do I need to do for my ai generated texts to be considered a nation's propagand",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-21T15:30:24.920000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,books that came out earlier don’t have the weight of all the pre-orders added to the week’s sales,hold,decrease,False,True,42059.8495,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-08T17:47:12.838000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Questions for OP +: +do you believe the IPC reports that Gaza is currently in phase 4 food insecurity? +do you believ",flip,decrease,False,True,118.1571,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +TR1IlkXbrJ7a8iCJGD8u,2023-09-23T07:02:19.069000+00:00,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,I put a large order at 5% if you'd like to buy more :),hold,increase,False,True,34788.523,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-08T18:00:32.226000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"obvs. but this article tells its regulated by china in some ways. right? +""But the Cyberspace Administration of China ru",flip,hold,False,True,90.3719,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T16:52:41.401000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,Hamas releases the hostages and disarms and Israel maintains some kind of long-term presence in Gaza to prevent the re-e,increase,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-03T18:59:47.995000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,You can make your stance known now.,hold,hold,True,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN,2023-11-07T20:42:24.091000+00:00,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,"I recommend this book. +https://bookbit.substack.com/p/book-review-alpha-trader-by-brent + There's this notion of narra",decrease,increase,False,True,2200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T02:51:59.908000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,"Panfilo. You yourself said. The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: +htt",decrease,increase,False,True,912.5507,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-05T14:39:59.984000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"choose your own adventure. +Two-state solution: stop facilitating and reverse settlements in the West Bank. Release Pal",decrease,flip,False,True,80.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-16T12:35:33.068000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"See +https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps + and the comment right below from + . They will update when t",decrease,hold,False,True,3978.122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UZtRUPg0us,2025-08-11T03:00:53.934000+00:00,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,"Judea and Samaria is one territory, who wants to annex Judea but not Samaria? No one.",increase,hold,False,True,4450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk,2024-05-16T07:45:09.675000+00:00,Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?,Note that the invasion of Rafah will likely take months if not longer. They are still clearing in the north. This mark,hold,hold,True,True,693.9814,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-09-24T17:01:05.461000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,This is the same thing said above. It's not new info.,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf,2023-10-08T06:08:36.309000+00:00,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,"A bit soon to call that a ""sustained combat effort""",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sC8sAuztlN,2025-05-20T00:50:54.618000+00:00,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,Both Superintelligence and What We Owe The Future were NYT best sellers (others I'd say were in this books reference cla,increase,hold,False,True,7699.4693,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Ba3JaDnQVGTDyFREyinZ,2023-04-15T23:59:05.104000+00:00,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,"Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help",decrease,hold,False,True,5156.4056,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-24T11:55:06.184000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,"And here's AP also reporting it: +https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-poland-yoon-duda-north-korea-russia-troop-depl",flip,increase,False,True,851.3277,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8dD3vNDbHnPCx3movLl9,2023-03-08T14:08:29.400000+00:00,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,I think there is a 42% chance that Ukraine controls significant parts of Crimea by the end of the year. Please critique.,decrease,hold,False,True,2430.8258,HOLD,qwen3:32b +k85pxgla0i,2024-10-18T19:39:17.179000+00:00,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,Are you arguing that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine and the market should resolve yes?,decrease,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6bd88b6e0beb79cdc234c93f85e3117baf4fa02e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.3191023579761402,0.9899482878655338,0.6708459298893936,UP,0.7239205543363075,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.7695228138196515,0.9934045064750896,0.2238816926554381,UP,0.7454826491224136,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,22,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.37174721189591076,0.024964689144845266,-0.34678252275106547,DOWN,0.9537390919022886,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,13,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.8937300743889478,0.004261319405215875,-0.8894687549837319,DOWN,0.2711625038307447,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.6806744156341804,0.0233220160594092,-0.6573523995747712,DOWN,0.20666954218142336,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,10,DOWN,qwen3:32b +5,0.20000000000000004,0.7160291902567061,0.516029190256706,UP,0.9665180811229765,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,39,DOWN,qwen3:32b +6,0.6299999999999996,0.9986820699505344,0.3686820699505349,UP,0.24527333685765876,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?,18,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8e27b2aad2a6a4dfb3f1e06b1cb4409a47129f68 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_intl/qwen3_manifold_politics_intl_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.3191023579761402,0.5175683838013848,0.19846602582524459,UP,0.9328966766303219,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,2,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.7695228138196514,0.6830675566724178,-0.08645525714723357,DOWN,0.8908158660488854,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.4524886877828054,0.5614495889757644,0.10896090119295898,UP,0.8680769865014488,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,9,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.2,0.729480658125124,0.5294806581251239,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4,0.3191023579761402,0.42406524583534544,0.10496288785920521,UP,0.6153846153846154,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.3717472118959108,0.08067571407913444,-0.2910714978167764,DOWN,0.9819380604410748,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +6,0.45248868778280543,0.6292542886861443,0.17676560090333887,UP,0.3645668894153679,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will North Korea send troops to Ukraine to help Russia before 2025?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.20000000000000004,0.7233557117554078,0.5233557117554077,UP,0.33353660594777157,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,35,UP,qwen3:32b +8,0.6806744156341805,0.3671144784687215,-0.31355993716545905,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.7695228138196515,0.5594883335374762,-0.2100344802821753,DOWN,0.43995097344001355,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?,36,DOWN,qwen3:32b +10,0.37174721189591076,0.11776324591812083,-0.25398396597778994,DOWN,0.825802104014438,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023,7,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.6806744156341806,0.21276586960661983,-0.4679085460275608,DOWN,0.2837511621205628,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,19,DOWN,qwen3:32b +12,0.19999999999999996,0.8031082953630673,0.6031082953630673,UP,0.801984475024023,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,59,UP,qwen3:32b +13,0.6552343651790584,0.4416705666905501,-0.21356379848850832,DOWN,0.23916289797307522,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,30,UP,qwen3:32b +14,0.20000000000000007,0.6695398657666848,0.4695398657666847,UP,0.9271487760325754,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,29,DOWN,qwen3:32b +15,0.6552343651790584,0.4130817979578554,-0.24215256722120304,DOWN,0.5543262919021598,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?,26,UP,qwen3:32b +16,0.6806744156341805,0.1296291288215102,-0.5510452868126703,DOWN,0.23314378690429757,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,8,DOWN,qwen3:32b +17,0.19999999999999998,0.5955421541886143,0.3955421541886144,UP,0.4178506695438803,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?,64,DOWN,qwen3:32b +18,0.6806744156341805,0.06401681150313025,-0.6166576041310503,DOWN,0.014259744827924038,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?,9,UP,qwen3:32b +19,0.8937300743889477,0.2068531777078155,-0.6868768966811322,DOWN,0.345579781276841,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?,25,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/commitment_validity_manifold_politics_us.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/commitment_validity_manifold_politics_us.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0174346676a340b92906b60988d60357cf906276 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/commitment_validity_manifold_politics_us.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/politics_us", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 36, + "n_wrong_bettors": 16, + "n_directional": 13, + "skip": "n_dir=13<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=25<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/did_manifold_politics_us.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/did_manifold_politics_us.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..50b2894ce4e968352afe5d5a06c312f4ae78870d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/did_manifold_politics_us.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/politics_us", + "n_pre_directional": 55, + "n_post_directional": 25, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.4727, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.64, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.44, + "did": 0.1673, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=3<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6923 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9bcf0eb2efce8d96ab5bb0dfeb42f1ed1b2e6adf --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:40:22.141000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Apparently hush money isn't illegal, but if they can prove fraud and/or campaign finance violations, those are illegal: ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:53:08.344000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-31T04:54:00.808000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hell that's a very big arbitrage op there. Risk of them flying by the night is to high though for my taste. Who are thes,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:21:30.823000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Polymarket is not technically legal in the US. The site is ""read-only"" for US users (unless they use a VPN outside the U",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:18:55.508000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","resolution criteria: +Outcome verified from +FRED +. +What matters is the +FRED + chart. If you want to adjust your b",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:34:17.520000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If anyone is interested, i will put up to $5000 of real money on the result of this question with me getting No at curre",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T15:57:09.375000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:54:35.166000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not going to bet any real money, but I'm curious what odds you would take the other side? You'd bet $5000 NO at 51%;",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-02T22:56:36.717000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It seems +The Keys to the White House + is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-05T03:37:21.404000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Nah. Nothing on the horizon that has much buzz. I only bought $5 because I don't see this market going below 30% for man,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:29:14.545000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,wait if you’re holding YES shares you need the typist to show up to work,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:13:29.425000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"John, I put up a market on Hunter getting probation.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T23:58:01.081000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +: +“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:29:33.022000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in fact I am gambling real usd dollars on this :),False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:05:01.606000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I believe there are also fees to the liquidity providers that vary per market.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:32:24.633000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The spread on Manifold for a M1000 (=$10) order is bigger than for a $1000 order on Polymarket,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T02:15:51.132000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Is there a transparency / freedom of information law for mugshots in the state of georgia,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:28:17.977000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It was fixed in the sense that everyone knows Trump actually won. It was blindingly obvious like 'is there a sun in the,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T15:13:57.018000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not really, the NC market has Harris’ chances at 45%. Right now, this market is at 51%; of that, 45% comes from Harris f",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T06:55:07.975000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I am expecting the cuts to be over 1 million. They want to cut $1-2 trillion per year from federal spending. Use the Su,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:49.138000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm realizing that every comment I add makes the description longer and more confusing and I apologize for that, it wasn",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T01:56:54.602000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,you do realize it is Jan 30 today and the market resolves tomorrow night?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:40:32.179000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's why I bought YES at 10% a year ago, lol.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:44:41.727000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:39:48.212000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware, when I created my market Polymarket hadn't done theirs and if I had to do it again I'd use their resolution c",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:31:13.176000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It isn't just the cost of containers and fuel - it's also logistical delays and bottlenecks that also contribute to infl,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:23:05.739000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Lots of mana to be made betting NO if you're confident in that.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:45:39.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like + has around half his portfolio va",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:53:48.317000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"How would any TikTok ban affect the availability of WeChat in the US? +https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-wechat-be-av",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:25:11.379000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I’m too risk-averse, but I’ll do a $5 bet at 1:1 odds if you’d like 😆",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T21:49:59.005000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Latest news is +White House national security adviser John Kirby said Sunday that the Senate should swiftly advance a b",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-21T17:57:23.885000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What are the criteria for how this will be resolved? Who decides who wins?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T02:03:21.064000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I see well I don't care much if this resolves yes or no. I'm just here to trade and so far I have made some small profit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:48:32.423000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"NBC is also reporting the same photo as CNN: +https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-arraignment",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:25:12.411000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yup I have made a few solid trades so far. I wrongly predicted the weekend though. But I'm only down 1 mana so I'm just ,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T19:47:47.719000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on K,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:08:24.892000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In part it was just a bunch of silly arguments. You can say Biden wins without suggesting that a faked up indictment fo,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T17:11:56.781000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""Dude is literally on tape committing a crime that basically fits the letter of the law in Fulton County."" +Do you have ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T05:18:49.511000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As long as we're citing economists, Moody's is predicting Biden wins 308-230- as long as average gas price doesn't get n",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:24:33.558000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-17T20:06:00.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the elect",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T01:08:08.596000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't argue with flat earthers either. And they get more respect from me than the 'it was the fairest election evar' ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:12:27.754000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"re: the name change, isn't this still predicated on it getting signed by the president?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-20T17:57:27.074000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Hmm, kind of messed up my limits when I entered them yesterday. Oh well, rather than profit maximizing, I guess for thi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:43:08.791000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yes I agree with this. Most people may not even realize ownership has switched.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:18:31.083000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I bought NO because of your clear definition in the description. +""a political party is defined an organization that coo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T22:29:31.964000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order ex,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:36:22.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Using Polymarket to resolve a market about Trump and expecting it to be credible... lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T22:24:07.434000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Polymarket subsidizing liquidity providers with $5000 a week in a zero fee market,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T17:59:46.398000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The flip side is that it looks really +good + if Biden nominates Buttigieg or Whitmer to replace him",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..14f62e99c0ff559671d129a6cb56926ffd6714d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:40:22.141000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Apparently hush money isn't illegal, but if they can prove fraud and/or campaign finance violations, those are illegal: ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:53:08.344000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-31T04:54:00.808000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hell that's a very big arbitrage op there. Risk of them flying by the night is to high though for my taste. Who are thes,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:21:30.823000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Polymarket is not technically legal in the US. The site is ""read-only"" for US users (unless they use a VPN outside the U",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:18:55.508000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","resolution criteria: +Outcome verified from +FRED +. +What matters is the +FRED + chart. If you want to adjust your b",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:34:17.520000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If anyone is interested, i will put up to $5000 of real money on the result of this question with me getting No at curre",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T15:57:09.375000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:54:35.166000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not going to bet any real money, but I'm curious what odds you would take the other side? You'd bet $5000 NO at 51%;",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-02T22:56:36.717000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It seems +The Keys to the White House + is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-05T03:37:21.404000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Nah. Nothing on the horizon that has much buzz. I only bought $5 because I don't see this market going below 30% for man,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:29:14.545000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,wait if you’re holding YES shares you need the typist to show up to work,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:13:29.425000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"John, I put up a market on Hunter getting probation.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T23:58:01.081000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +: +“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:29:33.022000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in fact I am gambling real usd dollars on this :),False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:05:01.606000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I believe there are also fees to the liquidity providers that vary per market.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:32:24.633000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The spread on Manifold for a M1000 (=$10) order is bigger than for a $1000 order on Polymarket,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T02:15:51.132000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Is there a transparency / freedom of information law for mugshots in the state of georgia,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:28:17.977000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It was fixed in the sense that everyone knows Trump actually won. It was blindingly obvious like 'is there a sun in the,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T15:13:57.018000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not really, the NC market has Harris’ chances at 45%. Right now, this market is at 51%; of that, 45% comes from Harris f",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T06:55:07.975000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I am expecting the cuts to be over 1 million. They want to cut $1-2 trillion per year from federal spending. Use the Su,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:49.138000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm realizing that every comment I add makes the description longer and more confusing and I apologize for that, it wasn",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T01:56:54.602000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,you do realize it is Jan 30 today and the market resolves tomorrow night?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:40:32.179000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's why I bought YES at 10% a year ago, lol.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:44:41.727000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:39:48.212000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware, when I created my market Polymarket hadn't done theirs and if I had to do it again I'd use their resolution c",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:31:13.176000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It isn't just the cost of containers and fuel - it's also logistical delays and bottlenecks that also contribute to infl,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:23:05.739000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Lots of mana to be made betting NO if you're confident in that.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:45:39.786000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like + has around half his portfolio va",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:53:48.317000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"How would any TikTok ban affect the availability of WeChat in the US? +https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-wechat-be-av",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:25:11.379000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I’m too risk-averse, but I’ll do a $5 bet at 1:1 odds if you’d like 😆",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T21:49:59.005000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Latest news is +White House national security adviser John Kirby said Sunday that the Senate should swiftly advance a b",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-21T17:57:23.885000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What are the criteria for how this will be resolved? Who decides who wins?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T02:03:21.064000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I see well I don't care much if this resolves yes or no. I'm just here to trade and so far I have made some small profit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:48:32.423000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"NBC is also reporting the same photo as CNN: +https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-arraignment",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:25:12.411000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yup I have made a few solid trades so far. I wrongly predicted the weekend though. But I'm only down 1 mana so I'm just ,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T19:47:47.719000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on K,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:08:24.892000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In part it was just a bunch of silly arguments. You can say Biden wins without suggesting that a faked up indictment fo,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T17:11:56.781000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""Dude is literally on tape committing a crime that basically fits the letter of the law in Fulton County."" +Do you have ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T05:18:49.511000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As long as we're citing economists, Moody's is predicting Biden wins 308-230- as long as average gas price doesn't get n",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:24:33.558000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-17T20:06:00.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the elect",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T01:08:08.596000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't argue with flat earthers either. And they get more respect from me than the 'it was the fairest election evar' ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:12:27.754000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"re: the name change, isn't this still predicated on it getting signed by the president?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-20T17:57:27.074000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Hmm, kind of messed up my limits when I entered them yesterday. Oh well, rather than profit maximizing, I guess for thi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:43:08.791000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yes I agree with this. Most people may not even realize ownership has switched.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:18:31.083000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I bought NO because of your clear definition in the description. +""a political party is defined an organization that coo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T22:29:31.964000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order ex,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:36:22.101000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Using Polymarket to resolve a market about Trump and expecting it to be credible... lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T22:24:07.434000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Polymarket subsidizing liquidity providers with $5000 a week in a zero fee market,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T17:59:46.398000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The flip side is that it looks really +good + if Biden nominates Buttigieg or Whitmer to replace him",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e34b56c56c9015d0f59a334528ed5bf4d40b8148 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T15:56:30.077000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I also have a version for Trump, different format since it's easier for him to flip states (because Biden won most swing",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T18:43:15.091000+00:00,tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",that would be investing to know — are they only reporting net winnings? Would be a persuasive bit of evidence!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:41:15.407000+00:00,tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Polymarket currently has a 11% (absolute - eg. 48%-49% vs 37%-38%) bias over PredictIt which is arguably already biased ,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:46.011000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"then what do you mean here: +https://manifold.markets/Slazac/will-elon-musk-create-a-political-p#p662ctg0vaj +? +And wh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-11T02:14:57.429000+00:00,J59bz1TpMrTAioAKRAdI82fKKmu2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i dont think this comment actually means anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T21:49:59.005000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Latest news is +White House national security adviser John Kirby said Sunday that the Senate should swiftly advance a b",NO,YES,False,True,3419.222,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2024-03-06T23:13:31.611000+00:00,oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""NO if none of the prime minister and cabinet are Liberals."" +So if the conservatives form a minority government and let",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T06:02:56.601000+00:00,dZG4tTBMFKTGknyn1ZUWjB7pmXz1,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"Looks like Elon just filed with the FEC. +https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00910323/1898441/",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-08T16:40:31.607000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"made a longer term multiple choice version without needing to define “political party”: +https://manifold.markets/Jason",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",NO,NO,True,True,17132.974,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:25:22.867000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,DSA self identifies as an organization and is broadly considered one,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-10-26T05:19:22.550000+00:00,qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",God I wish I had known about this fucking market earlier. This was a steal at 70%,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-26T23:53:33.395000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"1. Doubt that anyone who is not committed cares. He paid off a prostitute, possibly. In a way that is probably not a f",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:54:35.166000+00:00,XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not going to bet any real money, but I'm curious what odds you would take the other side? You'd bet $5000 NO at 51%;",NO,YES,False,True,1354.4601,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T14:52:11.857000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"No, I want there to be a distinction between a party and an organization",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,NO,YES,False,True,11538.9979,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T13:36:42.179000+00:00,rqyVlY3yvaZkXJ51lMa60NlqbOI3,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,This market is more volatile than tumbles debt,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:31:13.176000+00:00,TIxZM2CkXrVafA9OnTLLpSo1W0s2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It isn't just the cost of containers and fuel - it's also logistical delays and bottlenecks that also contribute to infl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.4824,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T03:38:25.123000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,How does this resolve if the bill is signed into law and then blocked by a court challenge?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:21:50.297000+00:00,fc6IfyoepwUtBF2twPqF6UVZHzp2,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"""Harris wins at least one state Trump won in 2020""",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:06:28.724000+00:00,BSjDPEeIFEeVvW6LbBB5BQxdnmz1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","What if the employees are on furlough or some kind of ""you're fired"", but we'll still keep you on the rolls for 2 years?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:46:33.257000+00:00,7ThKGd47IBVpnb3EUowsNO6wuFi1,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"If the Democrats go ahead with the bill splitting plan before 30 Jan, the shutdown is unavoidable, because it has to be ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:28:17.977000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It was fixed in the sense that everyone knows Trump actually won. It was blindingly obvious like 'is there a sun in the,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,Ljs38fqJp1djJPchj4w0Yo86yX63,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",YES,NO,False,True,17.1875,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T04:05:52.966000+00:00,zm5DMFm7MCVjgIK1G8VywKGSBRm2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"For tips on how to guerilla market in the AI age, please forward inquiries to: +hello@uppercutmarketing.com +Yes, I am r",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T14:43:19.859000+00:00,IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,This market is so profitable if you've been in it long enough lol,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,610.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-28T01:22:55.835000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden outperformed among suburban white women, an important swing demographic. Especially educated white women. He also ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T14:07:23.947000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","it would be nice to see a chart that also counted contractors, though that would probably be hard to do, since the move ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2022-09-11T14:49:26.128000+00:00,ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Liberal Party ALONE or with supply agreements from other parties?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,snOciGmf5Wfx9cJHTWBPHBWn74g1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T17:48:52.156000+00:00,IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Seeing this market at 37% is crazy,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-02T22:56:36.717000+00:00,GDZFiJE8jSVn0KaH18VCRvoF5Sj1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It seems +The Keys to the White House + is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose,",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:12:27.754000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"re: the name change, isn't this still predicated on it getting signed by the president?",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-08T22:28:10.205000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Problem is, the fix is in. The votes of the American people do not matter, except for how hard they make it to run the ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,sqmxiPoGfhcZ4sD0mA22ZzKC04K3,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",NO,YES,False,True,50.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:58:33.283000+00:00,4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Because it looks like he'll surrender rather than be arrested.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T14:53:31.341000+00:00,7ThKGd47IBVpnb3EUowsNO6wuFi1,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,No agreement has been yet been reached on a split.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-18T10:53:59.582000+00:00,8v4jmCfo71g79Lu8oxB6VOG25SR2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"READ, SMURFS! +Trump's mounting legal woes aren't slowing him down as he's surged past Joe Biden in the latest 2024 US E",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,3766.8119,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T06:55:07.975000+00:00,zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I am expecting the cuts to be over 1 million. They want to cut $1-2 trillion per year from federal spending. Use the Su,YES,YES,True,True,4450.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:08:24.892000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In part it was just a bunch of silly arguments. You can say Biden wins without suggesting that a faked up indictment fo,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T17:59:46.398000+00:00,YULeL6TvTLZXddwJJBKiKKKPy8h2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"The flip side is that it looks really +good + if Biden nominates Buttigieg or Whitmer to replace him",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T00:13:29.425000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"John, I put up a market on Hunter getting probation.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T16:44:35.517000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"would the opm page update in time if it's a quick ""technically shut down"" situation? Seems like it's the source of truth",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-12T23:29:43.684000+00:00,IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. +Please read",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T02:03:21.064000+00:00,IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I see well I don't care much if this resolves yes or no. I'm just here to trade and so far I have made some small profit,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:53:48.317000+00:00,AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"How would any TikTok ban affect the availability of WeChat in the US? +https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-wechat-be-av",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T15:13:57.018000+00:00,IxYs8fFwwQdQ90RtOyZ9wTIyOgs1,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not really, the NC market has Harris’ chances at 45%. Right now, this market is at 51%; of that, 45% comes from Harris f",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-21T05:31:13.206000+00:00,W5UwVm0ZZMersP5g1NarJhBvP1R2,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","massive jump in the last 48h, wow",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T19:02:12.174000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",really knocked it out of the park. He was right and yet lost 146k. 👍🏼,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-02T14:04:56.998000+00:00,tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I am not sure of any of this, I am not a tax attorney nor a CPA, people should get their own advice. That said, my impr",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T22:29:31.964000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order ex,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2965.0487,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-04T17:52:21.266000+00:00,MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I’ve now seen video evidence as well as multiple written sources confirming that Donald Trump has been arrested and is p,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:23:49.138000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm realizing that every comment I add makes the description longer and more confusing and I apologize for that, it wasn",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,pV4qNpXxuuTbHoTAkphukcURsvh2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T01:36:22.101000+00:00,tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Using Polymarket to resolve a market about Trump and expecting it to be credible... lol,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T05:13:42.013000+00:00,bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I didn’t say that was one of the things Biden defaulted to the Trump doctrine on,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-20T17:54:49.850000+00:00,snOciGmf5Wfx9cJHTWBPHBWn74g1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","At long last, September job numbers are released. Federal employment at 2,918k. January was 3,015, so the total decline ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:29:14.545000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,wait if you’re holding YES shares you need the typist to show up to work,NO,YES,False,True,15192.8758,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-26T16:42:45.410000+00:00,Yl45xyWbjcO8RjrJx2RHVbVX1iw2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I made a follow-up to my earlier market:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-01T17:20:12.175000+00:00,OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Idk people really love that orange n*gga I'm not so sure about it,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-12T06:29:04.577000+00:00,7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-21T17:57:23.885000+00:00,T31vZBYtJpaNo0qRuAsnUC0PjvH2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,What are the criteria for how this will be resolved? Who decides who wins?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-30T15:14:29.062000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I think the models always had this too high. There’s only around 2% chance of a flip without NC, but the models give thi",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",NO,YES,False,True,6720.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T00:06:10.981000+00:00,hXI6Qj84b2ZCfFEjPCquXBsGUl92,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T10:45:16.820000+00:00,xwMki73QMuMqZuKJYVj2sweCIKn1,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"what you said is completely off topic of what + said. The point was about the original commentor insulting other market",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T01:09:12.371000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"So far the only thing we have is a tweet that announces its creation, I don't think the party exists yet",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",YES,YES,True,True,8751.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:38:47.162000+00:00,pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Stock buybacks were banned entirely until 1982. The economy was fine pre-1982. I think the American economy can handle a,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:54:25.197000+00:00,a2BCa4nxVJg70AYkgp1adEpVAag1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Man, I did not expect such a low quality comment section (interspersed useful info and analysis notwithstanding) on a Ma",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T05:18:49.511000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As long as we're citing economists, Moody's is predicting Biden wins 308-230- as long as average gas price doesn't get n",YES,YES,True,True,767.8494,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",NO,YES,False,True,262.1731,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:07:43.591000+00:00,sMMUSZYGE4Skk7wrr7jU5c7h7Bv1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","producing noise is literally his business (nextbigfuture.com, the best part is what you will read under ""About""). I've ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",YES,YES,True,True,14.2484,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:24:33.558000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","? buy no here for 51c, buy yes on kalshi for 40c = $0.91 spent for a guaranteed dollar or 1/0.91 -1 =9.9% return",NO,YES,False,True,3766.8119,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:05:58.513000+00:00,0SO51c0Z0ZQWhvRtZ40jvFFnkHe2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Interesting! Thanks for that. +Not sure 4th amendment jurisprudence captures the way the words are normally used, but t",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T01:54:58.081000+00:00,gA02bfOzw3TSXKgeQqXbSklV9p22,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,Trump's approval rating took two big dips. The largest one was because of the Liberation Day Tariffs and the second-larg,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-28T12:21:13.239000+00:00,B4hbhKgvRKZeWTQoCxb5dh9rkiJ2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"But don't you know, the illegal immigrants stuffed Trump ballots up a bunch of mules' butts to smuggle them into Venezue",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T02:11:29.404000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,And also your point is not quite true. It's possible (though unlikely) that Harris flips a state but loses the election.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T19:47:47.719000+00:00,5ZLMEpuF15YyU9c1RTz7MorzAl22,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I guess you're right. So they really are far apart. You can buy over 200k on Polymarket for 53 cents and under 250k on K,YES,NO,False,True,9450.2482,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-09T06:19:27.587000+00:00,evfOfV4Sm1cv8ONlwl4I6KOwk4f2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The Republican president hasn’t won a popular vote since 2004. The senate and electoral college and state legislatures c,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T01:23:12.238000+00:00,2UjN2SDyuGPLR54XVDfBXcGL32i1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",hm this is pretty interesting. Thanks for putting together. Wonder where those mostly came from (as in which departments,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:21:30.823000+00:00,OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Polymarket is not technically legal in the US. The site is ""read-only"" for US users (unless they use a VPN outside the U",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1965.4652,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-17T18:58:01.966000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I just want to say that I appreciate how elegant the resolution criteria is here. That is all. ❤️,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T09:29:48.688000+00:00,PzsQWyEwpNgPRd6PbJmWFd3mEz23,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,The two party system has been in the US for 200 years. Starting a party would require a lot of spending to get voters wi,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:25:12.411000+00:00,IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yup I have made a few solid trades so far. I wrongly predicted the weekend though. But I'm only down 1 mana so I'm just ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T17:27:16.673000+00:00,tXhU9337YpgR5HCuSgkMHv98mOl2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I understand this, and have filed with gambling income and losses itemized every year since at least 2006. I do not bel",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-11T18:23:05.739000+00:00,LCUDWGaBRSZQxmuv3MSD6kY2YLu1,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Lots of mana to be made betting NO if you're confident in that.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T02:15:51.132000+00:00,9xPn1F6uVPOl8bEn02N8iQN5QVu1,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Is there a transparency / freedom of information law for mugshots in the state of georgia,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-07T21:19:40.974000+00:00,vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"We've got a news dashboard up for this! +https://manifold.markets/news/tiktok-ban +The white house is backing it, so th",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,7ThKGd47IBVpnb3EUowsNO6wuFi1,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",NO,YES,False,True,108.2427,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:39:48.212000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware, when I created my market Polymarket hadn't done theirs and if I had to do it again I'd use their resolution c",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-14T04:15:44.821000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","so my unofficial quick reaction is that the description says ""Linked to this Kalshi question"", so my default resolution ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:02:33.220000+00:00,yfAGtRl7SOdyeboZRtpPyNwmLqG2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"It's funny that you mention ""substantive arguments"" and conjecture because it's precisely your conjecture and +lack + o",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:18:31.083000+00:00,2s97StOn2LTvKV2XRu3oe6Svi1n1,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I bought NO because of your clear definition in the description. +""a political party is defined an organization that coo",NO,NO,True,True,102.7087,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-31T04:54:00.808000+00:00,jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Hell that's a very big arbitrage op there. Risk of them flying by the night is to high though for my taste. Who are thes,NO,YES,False,True,6320.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T19:30:49.798000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Honestly Jim, I think I was pretty clear that it was a massive cheat.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:36:54.140000+00:00,yfAGtRl7SOdyeboZRtpPyNwmLqG2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I mean it's all gucci - you do you - but there's probably a reason why I singled you out twice, and was frustrated for s",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-06T22:14:25.696000+00:00,SCF3oCVykPhjK8K78zCW02e5RK12,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"well he seems to at least not be backing down +https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1931111047408369863",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T17:51:14.912000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Come on people, let's end this now. I'm sure we can all find better things to do with our time.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:29:33.022000+00:00,ul7hcQgLRWUg0AfOXxAAqk8xOfg2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in fact I am gambling real usd dollars on this :),YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T00:30:29.309000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,that’s fair but I don’t think I should wait for an election to happen for the market to resolve. A party doesn’t become ,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-18T04:39:31.685000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Somehow I missed this comment. Not sure what you mean by ""you're one to talk"". Where did I use a superlative as a placeh",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-08T20:11:08.483000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Maybe he started using it and found that he's enjoying it?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T00:02:50.451000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,actually ya I'll do action at 79 even,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T05:34:16.639000+00:00,ul7hcQgLRWUg0AfOXxAAqk8xOfg2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,in a nutshell yea kalshi and volatility,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:33:29.347000+00:00,d3nWMAHzhvZS2d8qsqJts5irDuj2,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"This one is being shared around now. Not fully confirmed yet, but outfit matches.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-17T15:04:37.434000+00:00,uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","there’s every reason to believe the numbers +may + be inaccurate. They were already revised retroactively last month, w",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-20T00:48:26.742000+00:00,uGSqJoMlkGODXSYpoBQF2W0Z4lk1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I wouldn't be surprised if Biden only wins just because no one wants Trump back, so actually much more people are abstai",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-09T16:21:56.907000+00:00,KcWUV72rBoWBw4SGST4yNh6dfgu2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Why would I be interested in betting honestly? It seems to be a painful theme for a decent part of a superpower that is ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T23:58:01.081000+00:00,P9beSdXRrjQWCALMIPgF0MQ3NTD3,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +: +“The White House expects 5% to 10% of federal ",NO,YES,False,True,5710.6889,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T01:08:08.596000+00:00,GjunF2xU64dMXNGsWhyXu9Ozav43,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't argue with flat earthers either. And they get more respect from me than the 'it was the fairest election evar' ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T14:46:51.156000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"I'm aware that it can be tough to make the distinction between ""party"" and ""organization"" in those circumstances, I'll t",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-04T16:08:30.423000+00:00,fiQPU2WtlAeLmycSzyT2upbi5v72,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Nate Silver has said that political prediction markets are relatively inefficient due to the emotionally charged nature.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:53:08.344000+00:00,vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-18T09:52:16.770000+00:00,3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Polymarket at 65% and Manifold at 38%. 🤔,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-02T10:35:50.963000+00:00,rt0em7oVGSTRw7N3xYewRF9Uqt02,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I have a question. Let politics be a side.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:40:22.141000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Apparently hush money isn't illegal, but if they can prove fraud and/or campaign finance violations, those are illegal: ",YES,YES,True,True,862.52,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-24T08:13:52.913000+00:00,9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Even polymarket isn't that low, so if you think that you can go make a lot of money and mana",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:48:32.423000+00:00,cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"NBC is also reporting the same photo as CNN: +https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-arraignment",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:25:11.379000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I’m too risk-averse, but I’ll do a $5 bet at 1:1 odds if you’d like 😆",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1700.6882,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T03:04:45.906000+00:00,bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"> + +@Tumbles + the economy, the border, Afghanistan, China, Israel, inflation, Racism, government debt, Mexico, fentan",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:43:13.638000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I understand arbitraging is for the purpose of profit, but it skews the market to do a weighted average between this mar",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T13:54:32.614000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",You cannot trust LLMs. They hallucinate all the time.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T00:03:44.666000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"welp, we got half of a Trump backdown kind of",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,mReK53xvxAgQv3yHr0PIH4RygTi2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",NO,YES,False,True,46665.7438,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,25678.9985,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-18T18:23:06.184000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-doge-civilian-job-cuts-fbcb154fbe9d5904f456aa3655e57c44 +Roughly 50,000 to 60,000 ci",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:24:11.672000+00:00,ul7hcQgLRWUg0AfOXxAAqk8xOfg2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,Honestly I am starting to accept that manifold sometimes is more efficient at pricing certain markets with how much liqu,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:29:16.411000+00:00,0SO51c0Z0ZQWhvRtZ40jvFFnkHe2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bought NO and then sold again when I scrolled down far enough in the comments to realize that ""arrested"" doesn't mean ""a",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T02:15:16.837000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,God forbid an Office of Personnel Management director helps to resolve some markets /s,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-25T07:48:42.443000+00:00,eCzj3dQ1AxZ7V9aieKMygJsf7X82,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Don't think it's complicated. +Trump's indictments will be a liability for anyone beyond his base +Joe Biden has led an ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:32:14.276000+00:00,ul7hcQgLRWUg0AfOXxAAqk8xOfg2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,oh crap someone send shovels to this man’s house right now!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:40:32.179000+00:00,jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's why I bought YES at 10% a year ago, lol.",YES,YES,True,True,49.8691,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:45:39.786000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like + has around half his portfolio va",NO,NO,True,True,7501.3996,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:05:01.606000+00:00,b8FGhyj4KnUsg6EB9jiuEoe5uUb2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I believe there are also fees to the liquidity providers that vary per market.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:57:48.345000+00:00,d3nWMAHzhvZS2d8qsqJts5irDuj2,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Oh but cropping would not work. There is definitely a white wall on the older one where there is a badge on the newer on,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:51:47.506000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"soooo what does ""enacted or executed"" mean to you, since that seems to provide you clarity that it doesn't give me. ""exe",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T17:34:17.520000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If anyone is interested, i will put up to $5000 of real money on the result of this question with me getting No at curre",NO,NO,True,True,64346.2573,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T06:05:10.939000+00:00,0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I find it interesting that this market and the overall election odds are basically the same. Harris doesn’t need to flip,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-21T21:32:55.713000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Now all of a sudden you're an Enlightened Chad. Why bet differently here? Are you arbitrage betting instead of giving yo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-11T13:39:27.564000+00:00,n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"""passed by both the US House and Senate"" - so this does not require Biden to sign the bill, correct?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T23:54:41.495000+00:00,lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,nothing will ever beat Jimmy carter death market imo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:41:31.960000+00:00,yfAGtRl7SOdyeboZRtpPyNwmLqG2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,lol i think he just blocked me,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T15:57:09.375000+00:00,hXI6Qj84b2ZCfFEjPCquXBsGUl92,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Manifold and mattyb stole a bunch of users cash and mana out in the open for everyone to see. This is an incredibly scum,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T00:58:22.830000+00:00,6VOjPKXfJ4VonuYiDZccLcGEIT03,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,almost makes me want to sign up and bet no on polymarket,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:18:55.508000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","resolution criteria: +Outcome verified from +FRED +. +What matters is the +FRED + chart. If you want to adjust your b",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-06T05:22:55.449000+00:00,4xPxxPriWcX1e3TMscjTG50spvn2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how you managed to have 7 tags?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:44:41.727000+00:00,rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T17:11:56.781000+00:00,yfAGtRl7SOdyeboZRtpPyNwmLqG2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""Dude is literally on tape committing a crime that basically fits the letter of the law in Fulton County."" +Do you have ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-24T22:54:09.996000+00:00,4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Really??? I sold off all my shares in this because I thought that was the point, that surrender wouldn't count. Ugh.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:32:24.633000+00:00,85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The spread on Manifold for a M1000 (=$10) order is bigger than for a $1000 order on Polymarket,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,24516.0817,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-17T22:53:37.859000+00:00,Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","As of writing this it is a dead heat with DeSantis at 38% each, Haley at 11% having announced. It seems clearly more lik",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T10:27:06.825000+00:00,NUycvYJo0NTkxgiNd60nrVvVayA3,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,This is such a great resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing blog that understand t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-10T00:36:08.927000+00:00,JtMlNjH5r1Uw1zAAULwjmJrQtkc2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Well maybe no because of Biden's old age others will find someone on the job much younger whom will serve US more.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-17T20:06:00.888000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I was thinking the chance of nominee change comes from Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, currently on 1.8% to win the elect",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:34:06.059000+00:00,1tiQgOT554PvqUekWxmF2UAdqoi2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","* Trump took office in Jan 2017, not 2016",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:31:34.589000+00:00,YKow8lD3rqese3apxyrRlsGCioX2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Seems to me like the media is already calling it a party and it self identifies as one,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-20T17:57:27.074000+00:00,YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Hmm, kind of messed up my limits when I entered them yesterday. Oh well, rather than profit maximizing, I guess for thi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2969.9996,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:43:08.791000+00:00,IiMcXEGTjUXE5oAOu95ntKjxzZ92,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,yes I agree with this. Most people may not even realize ownership has switched.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-24T22:18:17.214000+00:00,fc6IfyoepwUtBF2twPqF6UVZHzp2,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I mean, I mostly agree, but Nate Silver's model doesn't. I get the impression that these models give too much credence t",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-28T01:56:33.164000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",we live in the best possible reality,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:25:38.129000+00:00,ul7hcQgLRWUg0AfOXxAAqk8xOfg2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,hope the typist is safe and don’t risk driving to office in snow! Definitely not saying this because I hold YES shares!,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T01:31:40.132000+00:00,wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"🤔 +Beneath a blaring azure sky, A caricature abides by chance, Amidst cacophony, bravely cries, ""Can accusation alter st",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:10:28.181000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,(thing i vaguely understand) PROVES (other team is stupid),YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-08T01:53:20.837000+00:00,rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"That one senator isn’t really pro-tik, either. He’s all tok.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-29T12:29:47.065000+00:00,lPFiRQoRHgPhEwJSIUzcdgEgpsD2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Wokeism is a belief system that assumes any social disparity is caused by oppression. It's a postmodern perspective infl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-05T22:01:26.360000+00:00,RstQdqKVADgvP1AaFhuLjkIUbwe2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,The party doesn't need to have a decent chance of winning anything for Elon to create it. It's very easy to create parti,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-09T14:46:05.388000+00:00,mrEzcyRxhBfM4zkbAPVfG767NYf1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",this market resolving no because trump decided he wants to pack the house would be among the funniest possible outcomes,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-08T01:41:53.194000+00:00,QtJRN5FemkW3KZtCMJayxzIi0gT2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Could he be charged but not arrested?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T22:24:07.434000+00:00,85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Polymarket subsidizing liquidity providers with $5000 a week in a zero fee market,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,25516.0817,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T01:56:54.602000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,you do realize it is Jan 30 today and the market resolves tomorrow night?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:35:39.659000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Maybe but no one gives a shit. Half the point of an arrest is the public humiliation, in the US at least.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-05T03:37:21.404000+00:00,cIqz145PvIaPPU7r1MCdIM2ZFkI2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Nah. Nothing on the horizon that has much buzz. I only bought $5 because I don't see this market going below 30% for man,NO,NO,True,True,5.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-27T14:38:08.850000+00:00,rqyVlY3yvaZkXJ51lMa60NlqbOI3,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,any no orders you want to put up?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-09T01:33:30.009000+00:00,OrDT0OCiNsernqv9ZDQNCDKvjug1,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Could you add my question in there: +https://manifold.markets/PaulHabermas/will-the-2024-tiktok-ban-hr-7521-be",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T06:44:52.896000+00:00,bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","the avg r primary voter likes him at least somewhat, thinks he was a good president, and also doesn't think he actually ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ba27cf07e2d713de8c9f75d35dad7d6c452ca44a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,109 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T00:58:22.830000+00:00,6VOjPKXfJ4VonuYiDZccLcGEIT03,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,almost makes me want to sign up and bet no on polymarket,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T00:57:58.898000+00:00,6VOjPKXfJ4VonuYiDZccLcGEIT03,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"yeah... weird. Youd think polymarket would be more accurate because real money's on the line, but those odds seem... st",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:03:42.412000+00:00,5JTjLRLqurS67gwM9RDIIggfzBz1,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"I see your point, but they've already indicted him publicly. The purpose of a mugshot is "" +to allow law enforcement to ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T08:53:43.530000+00:00,5JTjLRLqurS67gwM9RDIIggfzBz1,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"This is a clear No, he is applying for a FOIA statutory exemption. +Source: talked to a Lawyer about it.. +https://www.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-08T01:41:53.194000+00:00,QtJRN5FemkW3KZtCMJayxzIi0gT2,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Could he be charged but not arrested?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-21T12:53:08.920000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,LoL at the automatically generated image for this market.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-11T13:39:27.564000+00:00,n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"""passed by both the US House and Senate"" - so this does not require Biden to sign the bill, correct?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T00:31:31.625000+00:00,ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I made a conditional market for those interested in betting on whether TikTok will be sold OR shut down, without worryin",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T17:27:32.706000+00:00,OKEJTkGTMsRxFEpOTMvdHJohK2z2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"ya that's true, i put it in description also +Note: Resolves to the YES option if a law or bill is passed even if the sa",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T16:06:39.655000+00:00,OKEJTkGTMsRxFEpOTMvdHJohK2z2,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Did anyone else find the senate hearing of TikTok CEO just a pathetic performance by our senators?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T03:38:25.123000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,How does this resolve if the bill is signed into law and then blocked by a court challenge?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T03:35:04.885000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I'm not sure how congress could actualy do this without running afoul of the first amendment,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-07T21:19:40.974000+00:00,vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"We've got a news dashboard up for this! +https://manifold.markets/news/tiktok-ban +The white house is backing it, so th",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T06:44:52.896000+00:00,bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","the avg r primary voter likes him at least somewhat, thinks he was a good president, and also doesn't think he actually ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:26:09.839000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I can tell a lot of them want to ditch Trump. So you'll see a lot of noise over the next year while they test if they st,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:14:30.643000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","@BTE + A nice juicy M$10,000 limit order for you if you want it. He whines in every election and every rally, and it doe",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:38:47.162000+00:00,pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Stock buybacks were banned entirely until 1982. The economy was fine pre-1982. I think the American economy can handle a,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:32:22.925000+00:00,pPHaTHY4udNtcuXmxnEB4ZA8Kr33,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Wrong. Biden wants to quadruple the stock buyback tax from 1% to 4%. Regular Americans do not engage in stock buybacks. ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T05:13:42.013000+00:00,bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I didn’t say that was one of the things Biden defaulted to the Trump doctrine on,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T03:04:45.906000+00:00,bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"> + +@Tumbles + the economy, the border, Afghanistan, China, Israel, inflation, Racism, government debt, Mexico, fentan",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T22:04:11.309000+00:00,hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is that a Chatgpt generated response?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-11T02:14:57.429000+00:00,J59bz1TpMrTAioAKRAdI82fKKmu2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i dont think this comment actually means anything,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-01T17:20:12.175000+00:00,OhOMllKZHpSVaTOBOJj3gg5iJtw2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Idk people really love that orange n*gga I'm not so sure about it,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-28T01:22:55.835000+00:00,MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden outperformed among suburban white women, an important swing demographic. Especially educated white women. He also ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-27T23:14:39.738000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,he got more votes in the electoral college than Trump.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-25T07:48:42.443000+00:00,eCzj3dQ1AxZ7V9aieKMygJsf7X82,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Don't think it's complicated. +Trump's indictments will be a liability for anyone beyond his base +Joe Biden has led an ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-21T14:12:48.519000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"America's top 5 president, FDR, couldn't stand and was elected while lying about his health. Totally can happen.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-01-26T15:39:02.415000+00:00,oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,How well is betting / the aggregation calibrated? It gives a 2.6% chance to neither Democrats nor Republicans winning:,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-03-24T13:22:55.973000+00:00,2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Related markets https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 +and https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-01-14T17:24:41.046000+00:00,K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,16% on electionbettingodds.com,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-08T09:10:46.557000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Can someone do a TLDR on resolution criteria. Geesh!,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T06:02:56.601000+00:00,dZG4tTBMFKTGknyn1ZUWjB7pmXz1,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"Looks like Elon just filed with the FEC. +https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00910323/1898441/",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T07:31:06.166000+00:00,ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Would an organization like the DSA that endorses other parties' candidates be enough to resolve yes?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-06T22:14:25.696000+00:00,SCF3oCVykPhjK8K78zCW02e5RK12,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"well he seems to at least not be backing down +https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1931111047408369863",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T00:03:44.666000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"welp, we got half of a Trump backdown kind of",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T00:02:50.451000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,actually ya I'll do action at 79 even,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T06:31:37.568000+00:00,gA02bfOzw3TSXKgeQqXbSklV9p22,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"That materially makes no difference. Just add up the blame on Trump + Republicans. +---- +Interestingly enough, a simil",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T01:54:58.081000+00:00,gA02bfOzw3TSXKgeQqXbSklV9p22,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,Trump's approval rating took two big dips. The largest one was because of the Liberation Day Tariffs and the second-larg,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T07:49:28.949000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,Idk if I'd call it a win for the Democrats. All the polling I checked doesn't show much of a difference.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T06:18:55.827000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I stop paying attention to the news for 1 day,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T05:28:43.630000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I don't think it's that clear cut and IMHO the democrats came out last shutdown with a black eye,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T05:27:35.667000+00:00,HrA6GjQdKRa7rFaDe0NlcftnDt02,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,We're really doing this again? Lol,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T02:56:46.682000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I'm still a fan of markets with a source of truth. We all agree on the thing we are trading on. But yeah, that is the ne",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T02:41:22.153000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I was thinking the same thing although I'm always worried about OPM just not doing their job or something.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T20:06:57.616000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Alright, what's causing the spike this time?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-17T18:58:01.966000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I just want to say that I appreciate how elegant the resolution criteria is here. That is all. ❤️,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T17:01:39.938000+00:00,pV4qNpXxuuTbHoTAkphukcURsvh2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","That's not quite right, though. Neither this market nor the Kalshi one is going to wait until Jan 2026 data is available",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:07:43.591000+00:00,sMMUSZYGE4Skk7wrr7jU5c7h7Bv1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","producing noise is literally his business (nextbigfuture.com, the best part is what you will read under ""About""). I've ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-12T06:29:04.577000+00:00,7hlyeqVCZFhMq1oPc346i6S5Cq43,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T18:29:10.768000+00:00,5ZLMEpuF15YyU9c1RTz7MorzAl22,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I would assume if Manifold is 1099'ing winners, they are only reporting the net winnings, so you shouldn't have to deduc",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T03:51:31.039000+00:00,cXfjElSKSFTJVYwY3xlxH5wQlF82,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","H +ow likely is it that they cut 250k but that's not the final net change as a consequence of new hires? +@brianwang + ",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-30T06:23:51.667000+00:00,tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Employees are not cut by Trump or Musk if they choose to resign in protest.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-30T06:22:41.257000+00:00,tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Market title: loss of US government in employees under Trump? +Title <> Rules",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-12-31T18:33:39.078000+00:00,snOciGmf5Wfx9cJHTWBPHBWn74g1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi all! Here's a somewhat related related market I made: +https://manifold.markets/jb456/morning-in-trumps-america-whic",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-25T21:06:28.724000+00:00,BSjDPEeIFEeVvW6LbBB5BQxdnmz1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","What if the employees are on furlough or some kind of ""you're fired"", but we'll still keep you on the rolls for 2 years?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-19T12:42:28.832000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","250k is a lot. but it's also like... only 10%? idk, elon went absolutely ridiculous when he bought twitter. 10% was a li",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T19:07:37.291000+00:00,vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm pretty sure there's a replacement for him, so not a cut +Actually, is there a market for how many government employe",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T18:50:44.129000+00:00,ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","1 down, heard he got his 2 month notice today:",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:58:07.383000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","lol oops you're 100% right of course, edited the above to fix",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T15:34:06.059000+00:00,1tiQgOT554PvqUekWxmF2UAdqoi2,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","* Trump took office in Jan 2017, not 2016",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-13T04:39:47.576000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I believe +this + is the relevant chart (not binding, if it turns out I'm reading it wrong): +Trump took office in Jan",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2024-03-06T23:13:31.611000+00:00,oYKXAatHp3YN6vidj2KHdCFr91d2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""NO if none of the prime minister and cabinet are Liberals."" +So if the conservatives form a minority government and let",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-21T21:32:55.713000+00:00,RK6Nd7IBfMVOcLekfqcN9Ys17qJ2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Now all of a sudden you're an Enlightened Chad. Why bet differently here? Are you arbitrage betting instead of giving yo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-24T03:41:32.768000+00:00,petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Funny, I think I remember SBF saying something similar",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2022-09-11T16:57:40.574000+00:00,Rf5sxGGGFNdQIdiAjbEYkSGNBLD2,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Either a majority or minority Liberal government would resolve as YES.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-24T16:11:37.385000+00:00,A2NXNuriw9PBdaTXLynx2UGzpJg1,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"If you assumed Trump would pick wisely, then you need to reexamine some of your priors.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T02:11:29.404000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,And also your point is not quite true. It's possible (though unlikely) that Harris flips a state but loses the election.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T02:07:00.860000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Please refrain from using such language here. Let's not turn Manifold comment sections into Polymarket comment sections.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-21T20:57:40.353000+00:00,PWH4JqBzijQquOebZtvvYbrK7iq1,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"They're correlated. If Trump wins NC, the odds of Harris winning one of the other 4 is a lot less than 15%.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-19T20:43:35.948000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Wait + will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T17:51:14.912000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Come on people, let's end this now. I'm sure we can all find better things to do with our time.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T08:11:26.313000+00:00,wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Your logic would work if we were talking about options trading where your outcome is based on market sentiment, not obj",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T02:07:49.388000+00:00,wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Then go ahead and make millions lil bro,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T23:27:56.116000+00:00,wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Sorry, where am I wrong. Betting markets: 50/50. 538: Whoever wins PA is 91-94% sure to win the election. Or, an easier ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T15:12:14.806000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"And I have one for total flips, either direction:",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-04T01:47:55.764000+00:00,wMxdL9lv8SgJKMKFazXljpv4g292,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"There is not a 45% chance of NC flipping dem. Generously, the election is 50/50 right now. That essentially means that P",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T15:59:33.881000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Florida?? Ohio?? Those might bump this up by several %,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T15:56:30.077000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I also have a version for Trump, different format since it's easier for him to flip states (because Biden won most swing",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T02:36:40.938000+00:00,aAO3I4dqOhPBcvvEf6zqblwDHey2,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"This is essentially ""will Harris win NC"" right? Is there another state she might flip without also flipping NC?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-26T17:59:08.168000+00:00,XNrWcIrA22hpv20fHn4ApoTPsh63,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Mini market for now, I'll upgrade to basic if this gets enough interest.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..36b135a59953e4f2ddf8db9833a895516c3d0544 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,310 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:22:40.699000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Was it fixed as in “did the MSM, the Deep State and the Liberal Elite gang up on Trump and use everything in their power",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False,True,7501.3996,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T03:30:47.868000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/tiktok-ban-bill-senate.html + there's a chance this bill passes, but i can",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:54:22.420000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"what insults? Saying verifiably true things about your behavior isn't an insult, and you trying to brush it off as one m",increase,hold,False,True,18968.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T19:08:16.740000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:,increase,hold,False,True,9801.0425,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:59:31.297000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,they might be? Might be money to be made there.,decrease,flip,False,True,6720.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:26:51.856000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information ,hold,hold,True,True,59.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,increase,hold,False,True,610.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T12:07:09.812000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also in general they have insane odds for lots of the Democratic candidates, like saying that there’s a 7.5% chance that",flip,increase,False,True,1498.8179,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-05T05:48:36.214000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",There will be congressional bills this year and I expect at least one to address staffing and agencies and some privatiz,decrease,increase,False,True,4250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-21T20:08:09.911000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle. +What has shifted the",flip,hold,False,True,999.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True,True,0.0598,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T22:34:54.617000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Exemptions are usually only for those cooperating as a witness to other crimes. +Exemption 1: No +Exemption 2: No +Exemp",increase,flip,False,True,965.4652,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-09T00:56:55.269000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Likely halving the staff at NIH (18K), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (12K), NSF (2K). This would mean ",decrease,increase,False,True,5250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:50:09.044000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Thanks for the link. CNN + NBC seems sufficient to resolve.,increase,hold,False,True,8688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,hold,True,True,1619.436,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:15:49.773000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,my advice is to take the free 2x while u still can,flip,increase,False,True,7375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:47:54.170000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","President Trump required that “Agency Heads shall promptly undertake preparations to +initiate large-scale reductions in",decrease,increase,False,True,9687.182,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:35:38.716000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Literally does not matter. Only the economy matters.,decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,flip,False,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:47:20.038000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Hm maybe FRED is net and the other numbers are gross? Obviously all sorts of orgs are cutting positions all time. And I ,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:53:48.850000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Keep the insults coming. I'm from Canada and have been following Canadian politics for 35+ years and speak English and F,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,decrease,False,True,3289.0943,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.8713,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-13T18:58:20.129000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","free money to vote no, especially if you consider the new ICE hires. Not even mentioning their ugly breakup and the TACO",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,1088.7634,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:14:42.997000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Why can't you separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from the popularity of the Conservatives? You said it's ""pretty simpl",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True,True,415.8683,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False,True,3702.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-20T12:01:07.793000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","“Will Biden resign” was at absurdly high numbers like a week before he did IIRC. This is a thin market, a couple of whal",hold,decrease,False,True,27996.2742,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,increase,False,True,2380.5311,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T01:05:16.863000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,DC will be sold to Russia and the proceeds will go to student loan forgiveness,increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False,True,2983.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:10:16.387000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,betting on a technical shutdown at this point...,increase,hold,False,True,500.597,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-03T02:30:10.982000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare ru,decrease,hold,False,True,350.9726,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-06T20:16:41.579000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Just to confirm... if it is a liberal and ndp coalition then this will resolve yes?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:26:32.153000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",people can bet on the data as they’d like but keep in mind that tbe survey period doesn’t cover much of the major recent,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,flip,False,True,8345.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-17T18:12:06.876000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,She’s the type of person to tell you how she prepares the food that you prepared for her and say “oh honey we gotta get ,increase,hold,False,True,5672.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T19:59:27.595000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","paradoxically I think it’s better evidence earlier in the process, because it’s only later that falling short of your ta",decrease,hold,False,True,22478.6138,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T01:08:59.201000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,what the hell do you even mean with 'wokeism'? Like can you define it?,flip,hold,False,True,1494.5198,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T00:48:54.477000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Go back to kindergarten lil bro. If there is a coin that is heads 8 times out of 10, but idiot will sell you heads for e",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,increase,False,True,103279.7519,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:32:13.884000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I don't think he was surprised, I think he was attacking the other person for not understanding that it was tongue-in-ch",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:32:41.470000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I'm betting yes because the senate can't modify bills, ~congress~ the house has to; and ~congress~ the house isn't sched",increase,hold,False,True,585.5058,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:07:31.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T22:30:08.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +Damn, I think I might have been wrong on this. It",increase,flip,False,True,48077.7438,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-18T01:01:56.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,the shape of this market is bizarre,decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:53:56.101000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Even if what youre saying is true, would these elites' purpose be better served by arresting him rather than not arresti",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-24T12:06:01.905000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"great, the man knows how to win an election from a basement",decrease,flip,False,True,185.7076,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:10:28.986000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"i think he's very clear here: he's not citing election betting odds, he's citing the general sense of complacency among ",increase,decrease,False,True,27488.8375,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:32:05.707000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,i am suspicious and turning it off,increase,decrease,False,True,6660.7033,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T03:01:59.998000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's approval ratings aren't great, but neither were Trump's. +I don't think this race is going to be a guaranteed vi",increase,hold,False,True,323.0986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-01-14T17:24:41.046000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,16% on electionbettingodds.com,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T12:34:21.792000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","It means spotting when people's political beliefs are clouding their judgment. For example causing them to bet that +An",increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:34:59.882000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as ""Have you ever been under arrest?",increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:03:33.137000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility),hold,decrease,False,True,188165.7823,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T15:41:31.287000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I verified with searches. Biden hired 1200 DEI staffers in the last weeks of his administration in order to force a trum,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T10:17:05.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm really struggling to make a number that low ""add up"". 80% odds of Biden nom (Dem primaries are basically non-competi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,flip,False,True,13948.8726,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:07:41.026000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There's the opposite of fees, many markets have rewards for liquidity providers",increase,hold,False,True,25516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T17:55:26.653000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Kind of odd to me that this market is bullish on Harris's chances, while the individual state markets remain bearish. Pl",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-21T19:02:41.897000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,betting on some twists from the Supreme Court. Yes for Biden.,flip,increase,False,True,99.0701,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:33:12.072000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if you believe that report, it should be an incredibly bear-ish sign for this market. In a time period the report says t",flip,decrease,False,True,54117.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:59:39.332000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"To be honest, I don't think the polls are going to get a whole lot better for the Liberals as the election draws nearer.",decrease,decrease,True,True,123.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-12T10:31:08.902000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"it's not just Biden VS Trump- there may be 3,4,5,6 candidates on the ballot... Trump could very well win with 42% of the",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:13:51.735000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I think in the case of Iran it's easier to seperate the people from the goverment, since it's well known the regime is u",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:57:32.818000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I think if there’s really the votes for it, they’ll make it happen (~65%).",increase,increase,True,True,937.322,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True,True,87013.1764,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True,True,141.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T13:34:52.170000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Equally compelling arguments that suppressing it is a violation of the public’s right to information about the candidate,decrease,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-03T19:14:18.706000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Arguably, the indictments make it more likely that Trump stops running for president and Biden faces a more popular oppo",flip,flip,True,True,10.0084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:50:45.959000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If you were wrong, how would you know?",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",flip,hold,False,True,3766.8119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:34:25.166000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,House approves 3-year Affordable Care Act tax credit extension as lawmakers eye compromise in Senate,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False,True,975.9313,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:04:50.335000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing mor",hold,decrease,False,True,2525.6016,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T05:18:55.319000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,You're missing the fact that you shouldn't listen to the real money markets (you shouldn't necessarily listen to Manifol,decrease,increase,False,True,161.2357,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False,True,580.3465,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-09T12:57:35.522000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: +https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains",decrease,hold,False,True,3159.8237,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True,True,1178.4585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:00.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""The Liberals"" is a shorthand for the Liberal Party of Canada. The fact you transparently admit you're playing semantic ",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-04T17:37:17.461000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","-privatization of USPS would require an act of congress +-do you think it's realistic that the admin is going to wholesa",flip,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T01:31:38.962000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","This is trading substantially below Kalshi, fyi: +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-",decrease,hold,False,True,21440.2194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:55:54.763000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","FWIW, it appears that USAJOBS is still up... +https://www.usajobs.gov/search/results/?l=Washington,%20District%20of%20C",decrease,hold,False,True,225.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:33:50.212000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,It wouldn't be that surprising IMO. The sheriff said he would take a mugshot as per SOP unless someone told him otherwis,increase,decrease,False,True,5241.1364,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False,True,672.2392,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,increase,False,True,1237.1156,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-07T21:58:05.441000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So, I'm not saying that it's actually going to happen, but if there is an attempt at an inter-decennial census between n",decrease,hold,False,True,149.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False,True,4456.8333,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False,True,323.1628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-04T00:07:01.429000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,100% - the last few days my email has been a steady stream of rubbish from him.,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T02:04:09.868000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It’s trumps America, we are all just living in it. Crazy",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-14T23:43:30.656000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",sorry axis on second chart should be thousands not millions,increase,hold,False,True,1417.959,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T22:55:10.906000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I believe discharge petitions only apply to the House.,increase,hold,False,True,5747.0952,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,flip,False,True,8445.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T06:04:44.364000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I don't like this poll because there are two options to vote against Republicans and only one option for democrats.,decrease,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T19:56:59.336000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think it has more to do with potential. If this is unscripted Joe Biden now this is most likely going to be unscripted,increase,decrease,False,True,3677.8751,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T06:43:41.991000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So assuming you believe what you say: what, is 4:1 over 12 months not above your opportunity cost?",increase,increase,True,True,47318.7438,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-11T05:17:44.562000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"she could flip NC by 1.1%, lose PA + AZ + NV and still lose anyway?",decrease,decrease,True,True,818.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,758.7898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T16:09:37.942000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",are you saying Tate fans are well distributed in the right/left spectrum ?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",flip,decrease,False,True,108.2427,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,flip,False,True,935.5724,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:45:14.814000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""it's about drama. actually arresting him risks creating some serious blowback."" +Serious blowback is distracting drama,",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-10T01:41:26.456000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"> ""The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today"" +The date of the next general wil",flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:27:04.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I appreciate when people announce that their bets are irrational,increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T05:04:27.877000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The 2016 election may have shown otherwise,hold,flip,False,True,9.5181,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T15:02:15.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah the Ben Shapiro position is actually insane. ""Yeah he tried to say fuck the Constitution and stage a coup, but it d",flip,flip,True,True,3794.5198,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T15:25:24.868000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Any NO limits you guys want to put up, my mana is burning my pockets.",flip,increase,False,True,425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,decrease,False,True,33.8459,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T23:40:04.946000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I just saw on CNN an NYPD detective say Trump cannot avoid being arrested in NYC if charged as expected. There is no pro,flip,increase,False,True,9744.9831,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T00:49:18.337000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","OMB Vought says over 10,000 will be fired. +https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/federal-layoffs-russell-vought-government-s",decrease,increase,False,True,13298.4919,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-31T15:28:49.584000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lol why is this being boosted? I think people already know about this question!,flip,hold,False,True,45395.1788,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T20:37:39.555000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,took my yes profit and bought a tiny NO because I think Musk has a good chance of just making an org and calling it “the,flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T03:33:34.493000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers. +If you cannot handle me providing answers to someo",decrease,flip,False,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T06:23:16.901000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"If the prime minister/cabinet are NDP, that would be a NO",decrease,hold,False,True,0.9994,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:22:35.083000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Polymarket skims off the top of bets. Judging by this image (which I just screencapped off a random market), it looks li",increase,hold,False,True,25678.9985,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T14:55:23.833000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Maybe there's not a deal after all? +https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5714316-senate-government-funding-shutdown/amp",decrease,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T23:21:53.712000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/ +Over the past five f",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False,True,415.8683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:52:00.703000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that's a good problem to have ggs,hold,hold,True,True,10443.4352,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T16:40:33.334000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,People feel Trump is such a bad candidate that it should be a slam dunk. It being 50/50 is terrible odds considering peo,increase,flip,False,True,5012.1905,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True,True,5.4799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:32:29.339000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"@PeterNjeim +The whole point of the arbitrage is that there's no belief necessary, only profit. +I guess if I were to tr",increase,hold,False,True,582.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T14:58:13.750000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,This is just some random account,flip,hold,False,True,5073.2813,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:21:52.382000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"But you see the disjunction, right? The NY statute clearly understands a surrender as an alternative to an ""arrest"", not",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T21:26:48.328000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","smh, didn't realize there was a Kalshi question linked to this 📉",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-14T12:23:43.363000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","According to reddit, a confirmed list of agencies with layoffs to probationary employees: +Consumer Financial Protection",flip,increase,False,True,124.3502,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-20T03:54:35.931000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So far this week +6700 IRS to be laid off Feb 10 +~10000 USAID +Thousands from HHS +2000 Dept of Energy +Dept of Agricul",decrease,increase,False,True,6751.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,decrease,False,True,1920.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-25T17:29:51.507000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Just a reminder that you guys tried to milk this last time and it didn't work. It may be time to look for new strategies,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True,True,1095.8342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:28:19.864000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not sure it will move the needle that much, but Trump started off ahead in polling before the debate, and Biden need",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T05:58:53.923000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Ah, but the problem here is that you don't actually care about that unless you average out over all possibilities. +The ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:53:13.473000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, this is a less likely case, but if at resolution time Manifold favors candidate X and other prediction markets fav",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:13:05.586000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"look at swing state polls + the ""fundamentals"" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say ""fundamentals"" w.r.t. pre",decrease,increase,False,True,1897.7998,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:38:37.592000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",and yes i don't see much difference between this comment section and those of the popular markets during the election it,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-06T03:10:08.022000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also: vote Taylor Swift! +https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of +Will she win before",increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T19:33:06.292000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I do think Biden is going to win, but I'm not as confident in it as you are. Are you thinking his polling turns around, ",flip,decrease,False,True,45395.1788,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True,True,65.7603,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:46:46.047000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"literally what did anything I say have to do with kool-aid, talking facts you can talk Vibes all you want to what's your",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:16:45.048000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,why was this ever trading below 25%?,flip,increase,False,True,12767.0158,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T04:27:48.650000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",The big spikes followed by drops are probably from the census every ten years. It's not as volatile as it might seem.,decrease,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T19:17:35.183000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,seriously someone explain to me how this shutdown doesn't happen? like at this point the only realistic path is a comple,increase,increase,True,True,106067.4686,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",flip,decrease,False,True,896.6667,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-08T18:02:02.737000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would t",decrease,hold,False,True,21745.1679,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-22T01:10:20.016000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"The only new news is +https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/fulton-county-da-office-negotiations-trump/index.html + b",increase,hold,False,True,9359.7626,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-01T22:12:42.014000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?",increase,decrease,False,True,277.7778,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T19:09:05.585000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"again, that's a ""technical term"" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True,True,262.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-07T12:24:19.182000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Not wise to take the resignation deal in the economy we’re about to see.,increase,decrease,False,True,6560.0235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:53:10.156000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I find + a great forecaster and I admire him a ton, but he clearly missing the story here, possibly because he's poli",flip,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:10:59.078000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","yeah, I understand that conceptually, you can go to Iowa and perhaps see a big surprise there. The caucus process makes ",flip,hold,False,True,240.8393,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T02:03:26+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Neither. Do you want to address +the very next sentence + where I describe how the two points are one and the same? Or ",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,increase,False,True,10790.8908,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T03:46:49.225000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that’s not how politics works. A shutdown is a win for the Democrats no matter if it actually is effective or not. The G,decrease,flip,False,True,2300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-30T18:34:23.241000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Chat GPT to sway the predictions coming in strong.,increase,increase,True,True,17598.5551,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True,True,5965.4652,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:00:44.034000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"love how these markets always frustratingly trade at some 6-7% premium from Polymarket for no apparent reason, since the",decrease,hold,False,True,20274.3185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:40:47.100000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lots of pieces of infrastructure can be routed around without too much efficiency cost if they're arbitrarily banned. Bu,hold,hold,True,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-28T04:11:31.916000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I think a couple of them are Manifold users,increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False,True,64.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:05:20.239000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""many times did you guys crow, ""they've got him now!"" only to be wrong again."" +Me? Literally never.",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True,True,5252.1603,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,increase,False,True,1160.9653,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:49:20.506000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,there are coalitions in three party systems,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True,True,10688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T01:18:12.888000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,I'm already exposed enough or I would have taken the other market's orders.,hold,hold,True,True,7188.4427,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-23T12:56:55.233000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","The two idiots in the white house thought they could pull this off and it was looking pretty bad +But then the the peop",decrease,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:52:18.576000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,atleast im not the worst when it comes to rinsing,flip,hold,False,True,10353.6204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-07T22:54:20.954000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Have you heard of Donald Trump?,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-07T19:47:39.805000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,It could also be that the stock market was responding to how the OBBBA clawed back some EV car mandates. Less government,increase,hold,False,True,53.7471,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:47:54.533000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Everything you just said is highly illogical. Arbitrage is profitable because it improves accuracy of the markets. It su,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:30:22.311000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden needed a win and clearly won't get one. Trump didn't say anything stupid on abortion or J6.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:36:43.810000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why are you necroing a 2-day old thread. Poe's law doesn't recommend changing your actions, it's just a warning that som",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T20:43:38.767000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Just how fake and gay is the whole electoral process? +Okay, I was pretty sure you were just trolling before, but now yo",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-03-24T13:22:55.973000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Related markets https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 +and https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-",flip,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T13:43:34.240000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Well no primary candidate has been stuck in multiple courtrooms during the campaign before either. Also, if he is remove",decrease,decrease,True,True,13169.0371,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-02T00:01:59.199000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.,hold,hold,True,True,2575.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T19:44:09.783000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","@Ziddletwix + will this be the data point you use as the “before” point for resolving this market? +I assume so? My plan",flip,hold,False,True,7988.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-15T14:25:52.939000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",All probationary and new hires of less than 2 years are getting kicked out. Already thousands from each of many major ag,decrease,increase,False,True,6201.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:19:30.831000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"but also, it you'd like to bet on the odds of a recession in 2024, I've put up some big limit orders here: +https://man",decrease,hold,False,True,1897.7998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T23:31:52.265000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"okay last thing though jim jones made his followers drink poisoned Flavor-Aid, not Kool-Aid. Please stop besmirching the",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T03:08:16.604000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"When it's a prediction market like this, no longer than November 6th",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T20:30:55.399000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"This tweet explains the near-term stress, but not the final outcome. Senate gridlock + DHS disputes happen almost every ",increase,decrease,False,True,910.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:34:35.452000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"PS: It's 20% because if the gap gets too slim I'd have to sink hundreds in to get anything, and that's no good",increase,decrease,False,True,582.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:19:09.389000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"New York state law for reference: +https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php +Following an arrest, or following the a",increase,hold,False,True,2987.42,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T01:54:34.285000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,That would explain why Trump is suddenly in favor of it!,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-26T21:40:56.092000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's polling down right now. Also, his approval seems stuck at 38%, and likely will not recover anytime soon (as Isra",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:20.826000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's age is high, +His mental state, a lie. +2024's out of reach, +His campaign in defeat.",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-14T20:54:10.622000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,would you say Mr. Trump is a typical 76-year-old American man?,increase,hold,False,True,31.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-11T08:28:15.956000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Isn’t it weird that the gov employees report hasn’t been updated since October?,increase,flip,False,True,545.6412,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-28T09:50:41.373000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how is it that clear Ben? It’s just a gov shut down.,flip,flip,True,True,314.4593,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-25T18:43:56.431000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if all is rational in the world, there’s at least 10% chance you’ll make a toooon of mana at year’s end, no need for the",increase,increase,True,True,280.1176,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-09T14:00:36.226000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",wow. Are there sources for all these incredible claims?,decrease,decrease,True,True,41233.9753,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-28T09:11:09.394000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I imagine he's more likely to be indicted than to be arrested. Though I haven't looked into the matter much - after read,increase,decrease,False,True,324.3819,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7593ffbd0627a036560c56c0223d23716ba5a456 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,163 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:59:39.332000+00:00,"To be honest, I don't think the polls are going to get a whole lot better for the Liberals as the election draws nearer.",decrease,hold,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-11T05:17:44.562000+00:00,"she could flip NC by 1.1%, lose PA + AZ + NV and still lose anyway?",decrease,decrease,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-03T02:30:10.982000+00:00,Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare ru,decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:55:54.763000+00:00,"FWIW, it appears that USAJOBS is still up... +https://www.usajobs.gov/search/results/?l=Washington,%20District%20of%20C",decrease,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:46:46.047000+00:00,"literally what did anything I say have to do with kool-aid, talking facts you can talk Vibes all you want to what's your",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",decrease,decrease,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T03:33:34.493000+00:00,"Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers. +If you cannot handle me providing answers to someo",decrease,decrease,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-20T12:01:07.793000+00:00,"“Will Biden resign” was at absurdly high numbers like a week before he did IIRC. This is a thin market, a couple of whal",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,decrease,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:32:13.884000+00:00,"I don't think he was surprised, I think he was attacking the other person for not understanding that it was tongue-in-ch",hold,hold,True +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T01:18:12.888000+00:00,I'm already exposed enough or I would have taken the other market's orders.,hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,hold,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,decrease,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T19:59:27.595000+00:00,"paradoxically I think it’s better evidence earlier in the process, because it’s only later that falling short of your ta",decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:19:30.831000+00:00,"but also, it you'd like to bet on the odds of a recession in 2024, I've put up some big limit orders here: +https://man",decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T01:31:38.962000+00:00,"This is trading substantially below Kalshi, fyi: +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-",decrease,decrease,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-07T21:58:05.441000+00:00,"So, I'm not saying that it's actually going to happen, but if there is an attempt at an inter-decennial census between n",decrease,decrease,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T14:55:23.833000+00:00,"Maybe there's not a deal after all? +https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5714316-senate-government-funding-shutdown/amp",decrease,decrease,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,decrease,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T05:04:27.877000+00:00,The 2016 election may have shown otherwise,hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,decrease,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T13:34:52.170000+00:00,Equally compelling arguments that suppressing it is a violation of the public’s right to information about the candidate,decrease,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,hold,False +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T06:04:44.364000+00:00,I don't like this poll because there are two options to vote against Republicans and only one option for democrats.,decrease,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T20:43:38.767000+00:00,"Just how fake and gay is the whole electoral process? +Okay, I was pretty sure you were just trolling before, but now yo",decrease,decrease,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:13:05.586000+00:00,"look at swing state polls + the ""fundamentals"" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say ""fundamentals"" w.r.t. pre",decrease,hold,False +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,decrease,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T02:03:26+00:00,"Neither. Do you want to address +the very next sentence + where I describe how the two points are one and the same? Or ",hold,decrease,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:35:38.716000+00:00,Literally does not matter. Only the economy matters.,decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",hold,decrease,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:20.826000+00:00,"Biden's age is high, +His mental state, a lie. +2024's out of reach, +His campaign in defeat.",hold,decrease,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-12T10:31:08.902000+00:00,"it's not just Biden VS Trump- there may be 3,4,5,6 candidates on the ballot... Trump could very well win with 42% of the",decrease,decrease,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-23T12:56:55.233000+00:00,"The two idiots in the white house thought they could pull this off and it was looking pretty bad +But then the the peop",decrease,decrease,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,hold,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-18T01:01:56.888000+00:00,the shape of this market is bizarre,decrease,hold,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,decrease,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:21:52.382000+00:00,"But you see the disjunction, right? The NY statute clearly understands a surrender as an alternative to an ""arrest"", not",decrease,decrease,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:26:51.856000+00:00,Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information ,hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T04:27:48.650000+00:00,The big spikes followed by drops are probably from the census every ten years. It's not as volatile as it might seem.,decrease,hold,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,decrease,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,decrease,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T00:49:18.337000+00:00,"OMB Vought says over 10,000 will be fired. +https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/federal-layoffs-russell-vought-government-s",decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,hold,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T23:21:53.712000+00:00,"https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/ +Over the past five f",decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,decrease,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T21:26:48.328000+00:00,"smh, didn't realize there was a Kalshi question linked to this 📉",decrease,decrease,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-09T12:57:35.522000+00:00,"Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: +https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains",decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-24T12:06:01.905000+00:00,"great, the man knows how to win an election from a basement",decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,decrease,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,decrease,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,decrease,False +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:49:20.506000+00:00,there are coalitions in three party systems,decrease,hold,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T06:23:16.901000+00:00,"If the prime minister/cabinet are NDP, that would be a NO",decrease,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T03:46:49.225000+00:00,that’s not how politics works. A shutdown is a win for the Democrats no matter if it actually is effective or not. The G,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,hold,True +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T05:18:55.319000+00:00,You're missing the fact that you shouldn't listen to the real money markets (you shouldn't necessarily listen to Manifol,decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-20T03:54:35.931000+00:00,"So far this week +6700 IRS to be laid off Feb 10 +~10000 USAID +Thousands from HHS +2000 Dept of Energy +Dept of Agricul",decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-09T00:56:55.269000+00:00,"Likely halving the staff at NIH (18K), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (12K), NSF (2K). This would mean ",decrease,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T15:41:31.287000+00:00,I verified with searches. Biden hired 1200 DEI staffers in the last weeks of his administration in order to force a trum,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:40:47.100000+00:00,Lots of pieces of infrastructure can be routed around without too much efficiency cost if they're arbitrarily banned. Bu,hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:47:54.170000+00:00,"President Trump required that “Agency Heads shall promptly undertake preparations to +initiate large-scale reductions in",decrease,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-09T14:00:36.226000+00:00,wow. Are there sources for all these incredible claims?,decrease,decrease,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-02T00:01:59.199000+00:00,Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T13:43:34.240000+00:00,"Well no primary candidate has been stuck in multiple courtrooms during the campaign before either. Also, if he is remove",decrease,decrease,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-15T14:25:52.939000+00:00,All probationary and new hires of less than 2 years are getting kicked out. Already thousands from each of many major ag,decrease,hold,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:53:48.850000+00:00,Keep the insults coming. I'm from Canada and have been following Canadian politics for 35+ years and speak English and F,hold,hold,True +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T01:54:34.285000+00:00,That would explain why Trump is suddenly in favor of it!,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:59:31.297000+00:00,they might be? Might be money to be made there.,decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-05T05:48:36.214000+00:00,There will be congressional bills this year and I expect at least one to address staffing and agencies and some privatiz,decrease,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:04:50.335000+00:00,"Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing mor",hold,decrease,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:07:31.657000+00:00,Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass.,hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:03:33.137000+00:00,Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility),hold,decrease,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,decrease,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,hold,False +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:52:00.703000+00:00,that's a good problem to have ggs,hold,hold,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:36:43.810000+00:00,"Why are you necroing a 2-day old thread. Poe's law doesn't recommend changing your actions, it's just a warning that som",hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:00:44.034000+00:00,"love how these markets always frustratingly trade at some 6-7% premium from Polymarket for no apparent reason, since the",decrease,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-08T18:02:02.737000+00:00,"Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would t",decrease,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fc340de41142589cce0a635b949c2f20307f0f8c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,149 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T14:58:13.750000+00:00,This is just some random account,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:28:19.864000+00:00,"I'm not sure it will move the needle that much, but Trump started off ahead in polling before the debate, and Biden need",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-31T15:28:49.584000+00:00,Lol why is this being boosted? I think people already know about this question!,flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:46:46.047000+00:00,"literally what did anything I say have to do with kool-aid, talking facts you can talk Vibes all you want to what's your",hold,flip,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-13T18:58:20.129000+00:00,"free money to vote no, especially if you consider the new ICE hires. Not even mentioning their ugly breakup and the TACO",flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,flip,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,flip,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-20T12:01:07.793000+00:00,"“Will Biden resign” was at absurdly high numbers like a week before he did IIRC. This is a thin market, a couple of whal",hold,hold,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T15:25:24.868000+00:00,"Any NO limits you guys want to put up, my mana is burning my pockets.",flip,flip,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",flip,hold,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:32:13.884000+00:00,"I don't think he was surprised, I think he was attacking the other person for not understanding that it was tongue-in-ch",hold,hold,True +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T01:18:12.888000+00:00,I'm already exposed enough or I would have taken the other market's orders.,hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,flip,False +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-21T20:08:09.911000+00:00,"This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle. +What has shifted the",flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-03T19:14:18.706000+00:00,"Arguably, the indictments make it more likely that Trump stops running for president and Biden faces a more popular oppo",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:50:45.959000+00:00,"If you were wrong, how would you know?",flip,hold,False +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:15:49.773000+00:00,my advice is to take the free 2x while u still can,flip,flip,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,flip,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T05:04:27.877000+00:00,The 2016 election may have shown otherwise,hold,flip,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:22:40.699000+00:00,"Was it fixed as in “did the MSM, the Deep State and the Liberal Elite gang up on Trump and use everything in their power",flip,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,flip,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-10T01:41:26.456000+00:00,"> ""The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today"" +The date of the next general wil",flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:33:12.072000+00:00,"if you believe that report, it should be an incredibly bear-ish sign for this market. In a time period the report says t",flip,flip,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,flip,False +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T19:33:06.292000+00:00,"I do think Biden is going to win, but I'm not as confident in it as you are. Are you thinking his polling turns around, ",flip,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T12:07:09.812000+00:00,"Also in general they have insane odds for lots of the Democratic candidates, like saying that there’s a 7.5% chance that",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T15:02:15.657000+00:00,"yeah the Ben Shapiro position is actually insane. ""Yeah he tried to say fuck the Constitution and stage a coup, but it d",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,hold,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:34:25.166000+00:00,House approves 3-year Affordable Care Act tax credit extension as lawmakers eye compromise in Senate,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T02:03:26+00:00,"Neither. Do you want to address +the very next sentence + where I describe how the two points are one and the same? Or ",hold,flip,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-21T19:02:41.897000+00:00,betting on some twists from the Supreme Court. Yes for Biden.,flip,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:20.826000+00:00,"Biden's age is high, +His mental state, a lie. +2024's out of reach, +His campaign in defeat.",hold,flip,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:16:45.048000+00:00,why was this ever trading below 25%?,flip,flip,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",flip,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:26:32.153000+00:00,people can bet on the data as they’d like but keep in mind that tbe survey period doesn’t cover much of the major recent,flip,hold,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:26:51.856000+00:00,Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information ,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",flip,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:53:13.473000+00:00,"Also, this is a less likely case, but if at resolution time Manifold favors candidate X and other prediction markets fav",flip,hold,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,flip,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,flip,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T23:40:04.946000+00:00,I just saw on CNN an NYPD detective say Trump cannot avoid being arrested in NYC if charged as expected. There is no pro,flip,flip,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:47:20.038000+00:00,Hm maybe FRED is net and the other numbers are gross? Obviously all sorts of orgs are cutting positions all time. And I ,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,hold,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:53:10.156000+00:00,"I find + a great forecaster and I admire him a ton, but he clearly missing the story here, possibly because he's poli",flip,flip,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:10:59.078000+00:00,"yeah, I understand that conceptually, you can go to Iowa and perhaps see a big surprise there. The caucus process makes ",flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,flip,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:38:37.592000+00:00,and yes i don't see much difference between this comment section and those of the popular markets during the election it,flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T01:08:59.201000+00:00,what the hell do you even mean with 'wokeism'? Like can you define it?,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,flip,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,flip,False +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,flip,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T02:04:09.868000+00:00,"It’s trumps America, we are all just living in it. Crazy",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,hold,True +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-04T17:37:17.461000+00:00,"-privatization of USPS would require an act of congress +-do you think it's realistic that the admin is going to wholesa",flip,hold,False +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:52:18.576000+00:00,atleast im not the worst when it comes to rinsing,flip,hold,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-07T22:54:20.954000+00:00,Have you heard of Donald Trump?,flip,flip,True +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:30:22.311000+00:00,Biden needed a win and clearly won't get one. Trump didn't say anything stupid on abortion or J6.,flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:40:47.100000+00:00,Lots of pieces of infrastructure can be routed around without too much efficiency cost if they're arbitrarily banned. Bu,hold,hold,True +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T20:37:39.555000+00:00,took my yes profit and bought a tiny NO because I think Musk has a good chance of just making an org and calling it “the,flip,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-02T00:01:59.199000+00:00,Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.,hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-03-24T13:22:55.973000+00:00,"Related markets https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 +and https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-",flip,hold,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:53:48.850000+00:00,Keep the insults coming. I'm from Canada and have been following Canadian politics for 35+ years and speak English and F,hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T19:44:09.783000+00:00,"@Ziddletwix + will this be the data point you use as the “before” point for resolving this market? +I assume so? My plan",flip,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:47:54.533000+00:00,Everything you just said is highly illogical. Arbitrage is profitable because it improves accuracy of the markets. It su,flip,hold,False +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-14T12:23:43.363000+00:00,"According to reddit, a confirmed list of agencies with layoffs to probationary employees: +Consumer Financial Protection",flip,flip,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:04:50.335000+00:00,"Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing mor",hold,hold,True +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:07:31.657000+00:00,Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass.,hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,flip,False +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:03:33.137000+00:00,Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility),hold,hold,True +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,Made this free-response market!,hold,flip,False +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,flip,False +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-26T21:40:56.092000+00:00,"Biden's polling down right now. Also, his approval seems stuck at 38%, and likely will not recover anytime soon (as Isra",flip,flip,True +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:52:00.703000+00:00,that's a good problem to have ggs,hold,hold,True +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:36:43.810000+00:00,"Why are you necroing a 2-day old thread. Poe's law doesn't recommend changing your actions, it's just a warning that som",hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-28T09:50:41.373000+00:00,how is it that clear Ben? It’s just a gov shut down.,flip,flip,True +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2e49e68ef02b474ab5d5f48a2817c001a228a086 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,309 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-21T10:35:54.975000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Surely if he can barely stand he can’t run!,flip,decrease,False,True,645.8527,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,increase,False,True,2380.5311,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T03:30:47.868000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/tiktok-ban-bill-senate.html + there's a chance this bill passes, but i can",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:51:23.665000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Yet you pretended the NB Liberals was what was referenced by the phrase ""the Liberals"", proving you have terrible Englis",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T19:08:16.740000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:,increase,hold,False,True,9801.0425,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:08:41.124000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,One example where the Biden White House took good policy with bad execution from the Trump admin and has been very succe,decrease,increase,False,True,350.9726,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,decrease,False,True,1920.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T01:05:16.863000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,DC will be sold to Russia and the proceeds will go to student loan forgiveness,increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T21:15:30.993000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Trump is winning over voters because Biden has gotten a lot more unpopular since 2020. I think Trump improves with every,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-27T20:52:35.792000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","You publicly attack a few people, and scare the rest into quitting for fear they'll be next.",decrease,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T22:34:54.617000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Exemptions are usually only for those cooperating as a witness to other crimes. +Exemption 1: No +Exemption 2: No +Exemp",increase,flip,False,True,965.4652,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-09T00:56:55.269000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Likely halving the staff at NIH (18K), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (12K), NSF (2K). This would mean ",decrease,increase,False,True,5250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:50:09.044000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Thanks for the link. CNN + NBC seems sufficient to resolve.,increase,hold,False,True,8688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-02T13:03:47.497000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","pay CGT on your winning positions and claim a deduction on your losing position, you’d still make money",flip,hold,False,True,3253.1493,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-28T18:22:41.523000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","With expedition, the appeals court and US gov't could shorten deadlines a lot—briefs might be due within weeks, and oral",decrease,hold,False,True,9151.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T12:51:20.487000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,is there a way to block an user? Eric is annoying me with his spam,decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,flip,False,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",flip,decrease,False,True,896.6667,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:29:00.001000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,For a while you were getting low prices on him running for a second term at all.,flip,hold,False,True,49.8691,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-04T01:58:33.461000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It absolutely does have “fees” they’re just built into the odds,decrease,hold,False,True,4621.8002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-03T19:41:22.156000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I agree that Trump is still very likely to win the primary, I'm just saying that the increased chances of a non-trump no",flip,hold,False,True,10.0084,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:15:15.866000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Yes, and clearly he did not heed it if he's surprised people didn't interpret his comment as a joke",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:31:54.255000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,is this not equivalent to the polymarket one,increase,hold,False,True,6660.7033,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T00:01:12.870000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"going from ""voters don't care about it"" to ""just under half of voters in +his own party + oppose his nomination, that's",hold,decrease,False,True,103279.7519,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T12:19:10.710000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"For another insane odds, on PredictIt they’re giving Biden a 75% chance of being the nominee (he doesn’t even have to ma",flip,increase,False,True,1498.8179,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,increase,False,True,103279.7519,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:27:04.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I appreciate when people announce that their bets are irrational,flip,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-17T18:12:06.876000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,She’s the type of person to tell you how she prepares the food that you prepared for her and say “oh honey we gotta get ,increase,hold,False,True,5672.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-04T18:48:42.782000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i haven't been tracking the timings super closely but even for many of the layoffs that have been posted here, ther",flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:06:37.620000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Can trump... or other insiders.... Just shut down OPM? Or force them to not update? Is that a thing that can happen? +",increase,hold,False,True,585.5058,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:56:12.099000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Cheap mana arb: +Buy 10000M for $100. Place it on NO at 2 here. +Go to the bookies and bet $60 YES at 3.3 +Cost: $160 +I",decrease,hold,False,True,6720.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:25:28.574000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I think the ""Harris flips a state but loses NC"" probability is coming mostly from Alaska. I don't have access to the mod",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-26T01:37:10.782000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Ngl, like 50% of my thesis on this is that George is a fish and I want to take his money /s",increase,hold,False,True,40183.7805,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T20:58:33.705000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"as someone who rides the dc metro everyday i suggest you place yes trades +:)",flip,increase,False,True,4600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,flip,False,True,8345.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-07T19:30:12.618000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Agreed. Pleasure doing business with you (filling my limit orders).,increase,hold,False,True,53.7471,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:47.715000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's hair plugs are few, +His mental acuity askew, +His campaign promises, deja vu, +His chances of winning? Adieu.",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:38:37.592000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",and yes i don't see much difference between this comment section and those of the popular markets during the election it,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T00:48:54.477000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Go back to kindergarten lil bro. If there is a coin that is heads 8 times out of 10, but idiot will sell you heads for e",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,increase,False,True,1160.9653,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True,True,87013.1764,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False,True,415.8683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:31:32.449000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"This means that if NDP leads the gov with support from Liberals, it resolves NO?",hold,hold,True,True,2400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-17T13:08:03.254000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Just because he succeeded in cutting a bunch of people doesn't mean that wasn't a horrendous idea,hold,flip,False,True,206.8685,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:29:08.222000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I went to bed last night feeling pretty good about my YES position despite the schumer/scotus thing, but it seems more 5",increase,decrease,False,True,262.1731,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True,True,141.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T06:43:41.991000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So assuming you believe what you say: what, is 4:1 over 12 months not above your opportunity cost?",increase,increase,True,True,47318.7438,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T04:40:57.650000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Kalshi is at 72% .Thursday 74%,decrease,hold,False,True,9787.182,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:53:56.101000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Even if what youre saying is true, would these elites' purpose be better served by arresting him rather than not arresti",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-24T12:38:46.136000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,should be noted that any connection to Biden is completely made up by you lol,decrease,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:04:24.059000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Matt is supposed to be smart? Lol. But while Biden is having seances with Francois Mitterand, the rest of us wonder how ",increase,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:10:28.986000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"i think he's very clear here: he's not citing election betting odds, he's citing the general sense of complacency among ",increase,decrease,False,True,27488.8375,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-25T20:37:10.144000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,There is MAGA energy in the air,increase,flip,False,True,15194.0456,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-07T19:56:28.102000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Markets like surety. Many people are reluctant to make decisions unless they have sure-fire information rather than just,increase,hold,False,True,53.7471,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T21:36:46.391000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I'm seeing a lot of particular senators names being dropped in the comments on Kalshi. I mean, most of the commenters ri",increase,hold,False,True,383.2131,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:34:59.882000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as ""Have you ever been under arrest?",increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T01:31:16.358000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","in fairness, I’d been trynna leave for 6 months though.",hold,hold,True,True,62133.0895,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T15:41:31.287000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I verified with searches. Biden hired 1200 DEI staffers in the last weeks of his administration in order to force a trum,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-28T02:07:05.945000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"come on man, you brought up an argument as to how it was rigged, it was debunked, and you retreated to how apparently yo",increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-28T09:50:41.373000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how is it that clear Ben? It’s just a gov shut down.,flip,flip,True,True,314.4593,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,flip,False,True,13948.8726,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:28:22.767000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Being over exposed doesn't mean my bets are irrational. That would only be in the case where I'm trying to minimize risk,increase,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-14T23:39:19.432000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Change in fed govt employees following elections charts I made, data from +https://www.statista.com/statistics/204535/n",increase,hold,False,True,1417.959,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-24T14:12:57.340000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Ok yes obviously there is more than a 1% chance of them winning, as there's lots of time for public opinion to change. I",flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:28:19.864000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not sure it will move the needle that much, but Trump started off ahead in polling before the debate, and Biden need",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-16T15:55:00.910000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","ah so one month fewer to swing? +Idk how much sense that makes if we expect the numbers that push us above 200/250k to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,69492.9085,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T14:45:32.211000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",shutdown's structure enables seamless execution amid reduced operations. OPM guidance explicitly allows RIF-related work,decrease,increase,False,True,13298.4919,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:13:51.735000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I think in the case of Iran it's easier to seperate the people from the goverment, since it's well known the regime is u",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-21T07:54:48.269000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Unlike Republicans, Democrats don't worship our leaders. We hire them to do a job.",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T13:24:46.605000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,My net exposure on Elon's political party this year is almost 10% of my NW.,hold,increase,False,True,7188.4427,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T13:34:52.170000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Equally compelling arguments that suppressing it is a violation of the public’s right to information about the candidate,decrease,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-09T17:31:39.239000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"While there is a vocal minority on either extreme, I think there is a significant number of American adults that aren’t ",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:15:10.941000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,He says a lot of things but rules for this market rn look like he needs to run someone who isn't identifying as another ,flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:25:43.404000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Making that acknowledgement is pretty worthless, considering the non-liberal elite, the conservative ""deep state"", and t",flip,increase,False,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T19:44:09.783000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","@Ziddletwix + will this be the data point you use as the “before” point for resolving this market? +I assume so? My plan",flip,hold,False,True,7988.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T19:04:36.919000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,So we are waiting on the Senate now?,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:25:28.788000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I don’t think it was that bad, and you can look at my position if you think I’m being biased. But I guess it comes down ",decrease,hold,False,True,89397.2965,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:33:12.072000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if you believe that report, it should be an incredibly bear-ish sign for this market. In a time period the report says t",flip,decrease,False,True,54117.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-01T17:48:01.317000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Hi folks. I think I missed the last one, but here we are at July jobs day. July number of federal employees is 2,931k. J",decrease,increase,False,True,99.1602,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:19:34.893000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,someone buy the NO position off my bot please 🙏 ahh,increase,decrease,False,True,5193.4352,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:52:18.576000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,atleast im not the worst when it comes to rinsing,flip,hold,False,True,10353.6204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,758.7898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:55:54.763000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","FWIW, it appears that USAJOBS is still up... +https://www.usajobs.gov/search/results/?l=Washington,%20District%20of%20C",decrease,hold,False,True,225.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:33:50.212000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,It wouldn't be that surprising IMO. The sheriff said he would take a mugshot as per SOP unless someone told him otherwis,increase,decrease,False,True,5241.1364,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False,True,672.2392,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T23:40:04.946000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I just saw on CNN an NYPD detective say Trump cannot avoid being arrested in NYC if charged as expected. There is no pro,flip,increase,False,True,9744.9831,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True,True,5965.4652,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-27T18:41:48.445000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Not only is NC mispriced, but that 6% is overpriced. That is my entire point.",hold,decrease,False,True,2525.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-08-27T21:02:23.261000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Trump could shoot a couple grannies in The Villages and still win FL and OH by at least 5%+. For all practical purposes ,decrease,increase,False,True,265.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,increase,False,True,1237.1156,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T10:44:14.564000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,2 is... Rather debatable. The economy isn't doing too well and that's most people's top concern.,flip,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-04T00:07:01.429000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,100% - the last few days my email has been a steady stream of rubbish from him.,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-25T17:29:51.507000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Just a reminder that you guys tried to milk this last time and it didn't work. It may be time to look for new strategies,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T22:55:10.906000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I believe discharge petitions only apply to the House.,increase,hold,False,True,5747.0952,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,flip,False,True,8445.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:13:23.767000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,9k up for 1 hour at 44% if you want it,decrease,flip,False,True,8997.6116,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T19:56:59.336000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think it has more to do with potential. If this is unscripted Joe Biden now this is most likely going to be unscripted,increase,decrease,False,True,3677.8751,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-30T18:41:58.038000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I actually got Biden at +210 on a dodgy offshore bookie. Fingers crossed they actually pay out. We have him at Insight f,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-11T05:17:44.562000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"she could flip NC by 1.1%, lose PA + AZ + NV and still lose anyway?",decrease,decrease,True,True,818.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-03T02:30:10.982000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare ru,decrease,hold,False,True,350.9726,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T13:52:19.616000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I think the left wing fantasy here is that Andrew Tate is a 'favorite person' for right wingers.,increase,flip,False,True,225.4565,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-13T18:58:20.129000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","free money to vote no, especially if you consider the new ICE hires. Not even mentioning their ugly breakup and the TACO",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,flip,False,True,935.5724,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:45:14.814000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""it's about drama. actually arresting him risks creating some serious blowback."" +Serious blowback is distracting drama,",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:22:40.699000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Was it fixed as in “did the MSM, the Deep State and the Liberal Elite gang up on Trump and use everything in their power",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:35:03.332000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,ahhhh gotcha that's my misunderstanding. I'm still skeptical that polymarket has no fees. I find it hard to believe that,increase,hold,False,True,25678.9985,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:19:30.485000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I think Donald Trump Jr has a better chance than the former guy. Which is sad on many levels.,hold,flip,False,True,512.0192,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:26:32.153000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",people can bet on the data as they’d like but keep in mind that tbe survey period doesn’t cover much of the major recent,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False,True,3702.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-03T14:58:49.029000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",FRED release is... delayed I guess? Was supposed to be released this morning but perhaps the shutdown affected that?,decrease,hold,False,True,21626.5788,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False,True,975.9313,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-21T20:08:09.911000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle. +What has shifted the",flip,hold,False,True,999.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T03:33:34.493000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers. +If you cannot handle me providing answers to someo",decrease,flip,False,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T06:23:16.901000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"If the prime minister/cabinet are NDP, that would be a NO",decrease,hold,False,True,0.9994,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:19:24.195000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Neither does Polymarket. And they also subsidize liquidity with rewards,increase,hold,False,True,24516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T03:40:53.300000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,insiders to… the five ppl who work at OPM and will decide whether this edge case merits an announcement? lol,decrease,flip,False,True,15192.8758,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.8713,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-12T01:11:31.890000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,none of this means anything. what gpt version did you use?,hold,flip,False,True,35.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True,True,5.4799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-09T17:37:35.370000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I would like him to say nothing and actually bring charges. +That's why we have juries, or why we were supposed to. In ",increase,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:24.799000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Inequality in and of itself isn't an indicator of discrimination, learn basic statistics",increase,hold,False,True,18968.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T21:59:34.671000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"He did not but there is a good chance he will in the next few weeks due to a fundraising headstart. Still, fundamentals ",flip,decrease,False,True,3702.7307,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:21:52.382000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"But you see the disjunction, right? The NY statute clearly understands a surrender as an alternative to an ""arrest"", not",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T19:06:23.980000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It means decoupling actual and manifest meaning. So, basically, when a Straussian says something they might secretly or ",flip,hold,False,True,2467.7997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-09T21:02:24.377000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I believe these two markets are equivalent. People should arbitrage instead of betting this one up.,decrease,flip,False,True,2131.4069,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-02-18T17:28:05.672000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"please buy more mana, this game is less fun without you",flip,hold,False,True,1261.5163,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-27T05:08:19.842000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. ""We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the ",decrease,increase,False,True,8751.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T16:13:36.197000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"The next most likely flips are Texas and Florida, but those have so many electoral votes that it would be almost impossi",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:55:37.904000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"MAJOR POLLING UPDATE: +Conservatives achieve ALL-TIME HIGH for Leger polls. Proving for the 5th time that Trudeau isn't ",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T15:02:15.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah the Ben Shapiro position is actually insane. ""Yeah he tried to say fuck the Constitution and stage a coup, but it d",flip,flip,True,True,3794.5198,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True,True,10688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T01:08:59.201000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,what the hell do you even mean with 'wokeism'? Like can you define it?,flip,hold,False,True,1494.5198,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T05:58:53.923000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Ah, but the problem here is that you don't actually care about that unless you average out over all possibilities. +The ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:14:53.212000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"for real nigga, biden gives no content",hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T02:04:09.868000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It’s trumps America, we are all just living in it. Crazy",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-15T17:12:03.882000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't take much stock in probability estimates that are clearly insane. 11% for Newsom when he's not even running?,decrease,decrease,True,True,41.2357,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,hold,True,True,1619.436,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:53:10.156000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I find + a great forecaster and I admire him a ton, but he clearly missing the story here, possibly because he's poli",flip,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-06T03:10:08.022000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also: vote Taylor Swift! +https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of +Will she win before",increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False,True,64.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True,True,415.8683,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True,True,5252.1603,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T15:25:25.755000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"That's ten cents. Not sure, but the much more traded dem nominee market was near 95%, which market are you thinking of?",decrease,hold,False,True,5443.2004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T04:51:23.033000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,where does the 20% come from at this point,increase,decrease,False,True,106067.4686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:10:59.078000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","yeah, I understand that conceptually, you can go to Iowa and perhaps see a big surprise there. The caucus process makes ",flip,hold,False,True,240.8393,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:47:20.038000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Hm maybe FRED is net and the other numbers are gross? Obviously all sorts of orgs are cutting positions all time. And I ,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T07:02:35.829000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Wow, just realised how out of the loop I am. Will have to recalibrate. Thanks!",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-22T01:10:20.016000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"The only new news is +https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/fulton-county-da-office-negotiations-trump/index.html + b",increase,hold,False,True,9359.7626,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-01T22:12:42.014000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?",increase,decrease,False,True,277.7778,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T19:09:05.585000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"again, that's a ""technical term"" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T03:03:47.788000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I expect that Polymarket is one of the benefits listed when you sign up to be a congressional staffer,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True,True,65.7603,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-06T00:45:31.175000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"Yeah, plus, as a third party, you don't +necessarily + have to get anyone elected to attempt to push the party towards ",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False,True,4456.8333,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:20:15.450000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I think manipulators may well be able to get away with a 5-10% mispricing, which is significant enough to affect bets he",flip,decrease,False,True,876.35,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-03T12:57:14.007000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I love that look for you. Keep being who you are so everyone can see it.,flip,hold,False,True,5993.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,increase,False,True,10790.8908,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:25:24.673000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","February jobs data is out. Number of federal employees is 3,007k, down from 3,017k thousand in January. Extrapolating ou",decrease,hold,False,True,210.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-22T00:57:31.234000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Data shows he appeals to a particular area of trump's base as has been garnering their support.,increase,increase,True,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-04T16:53:38.755000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,One thing that might work against democrats is that people won't turn out if they don't believe he can win.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.8249,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T23:21:53.712000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/ +Over the past five f",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-18T06:16:46.029000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Nobody thinks he will do ""another four years just fine."" +He very obviously it not doing nearly as well as he was 4 year",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-24T08:23:54.490000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden didn't take fentanyl seriously enough. Didn't try very hard to work with Mexico to address the growing cartel infl,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-28T04:11:31.916000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I think a couple of them are Manifold users,increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False,True,2983.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:05:20.239000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""many times did you guys crow, ""they've got him now!"" only to be wrong again."" +Me? Literally never.",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False,True,580.3465,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True,True,1095.8342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-27T14:52:59.823000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","10,000 to be cut at HHS. Out of 72000 +https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-job-cuts-health-human-services-bdec28b",decrease,increase,False,True,10517.8703,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True,True,262.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T05:29:56.993000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,when are you planning to resolve?,hold,hold,True,True,408.2564,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-07T22:25:46.833000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There are YES limit orders on the market, you should be able to buy plenty of NO if you are looking to accumulate",hold,flip,False,True,2074.731,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:49:57.949000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,It's not semantics. The Liberals have provincial wings that have varying relations with the federal party. I think the c,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T02:14:56.824000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"yeah this is a tough one to operationalise. Echoing Levi, I bought heaps of no since this market was trading about the s",decrease,hold,False,True,17132.974,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False,True,323.1628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-26T18:24:38.703000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Where are you getting these numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,44731.7438,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,decrease,False,True,3289.0943,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,decrease,False,True,33.8459,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:26:22.401000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Racism is systemic in Canada and is widely supported by all major political parties.,hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-24T21:47:54.034000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,That is the wrong way to think about this market. How many universes are there in which NC goes red and another Solid R,hold,increase,False,True,2525.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-15T10:03:41.789000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",thanks for confirming. That’s how I understand it too but since it may be close I wanted to be extra sure. The last data,decrease,hold,False,True,22615.5483,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:30:22.311000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden needed a win and clearly won't get one. Trump didn't say anything stupid on abortion or J6.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T13:43:34.240000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Well no primary candidate has been stuck in multiple courtrooms during the campaign before either. Also, if he is remove",decrease,decrease,True,True,13169.0371,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-16T18:13:34.770000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,What's your credence? Where would you bet big at this point?,flip,flip,True,True,19790.0161,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T21:39:10.465000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I don't see Israel changing anything about the election. I think the polls have gotten a bit worse for Biden, but the ec",flip,hold,False,True,45395.1788,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:19:30.016000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Rising Inflation and fears of an economic recession?,decrease,decrease,True,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T14:25:44.591000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","the linked question has resolved YES, this can resolve too",decrease,flip,False,True,34345.1109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T23:31:52.265000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"okay last thing though jim jones made his followers drink poisoned Flavor-Aid, not Kool-Aid. Please stop besmirching the",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T03:08:16.604000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"When it's a prediction market like this, no longer than November 6th",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T19:17:35.183000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,seriously someone explain to me how this shutdown doesn't happen? like at this point the only realistic path is a comple,increase,increase,True,True,106067.4686,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:32:29.339000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"@PeterNjeim +The whole point of the arbitrage is that there's no belief necessary, only profit. +I guess if I were to tr",increase,hold,False,True,582.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:19:09.389000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"New York state law for reference: +https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php +Following an arrest, or following the a",increase,hold,False,True,2987.42,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-02-18T17:28:45.455000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I just wait for new honeymoon polls then take the free mana. I need to wait for more loans though,hold,hold,True,True,40157.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-22T22:16:10.242000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","relevant: ""Consistent with President +T +rump's instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email reque",hold,flip,False,True,510.0026,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T01:54:34.285000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,That would explain why Trump is suddenly in favor of it!,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:53:13.473000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, this is a less likely case, but if at resolution time Manifold favors candidate X and other prediction markets fav",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:21:52.885000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Using a nonsense word on the internet isn't a very good indicator of a comment being tongue in cheek. Keep Poe's law in ,hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-14T20:54:10.622000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,would you say Mr. Trump is a typical 76-year-old American man?,increase,hold,False,True,31.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",increase,flip,False,True,46665.7438,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False,True,7501.3996,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-15T01:54:01.687000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","jobs report out thursday ( +source +) +The first economic data report that went unreleased due to the government shutdow",increase,hold,False,True,49442.6063,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-04T12:47:16.488000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",March jobs data: Number of federal employees is 3000k. January total appears to have been revised to 3015k. Extrapolatio,decrease,hold,False,True,259.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-28T09:11:09.394000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I imagine he's more likely to be indicted than to be arrested. Though I haven't looked into the matter much - after read,increase,decrease,False,True,324.3819,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..36b135a59953e4f2ddf8db9833a895516c3d0544 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,310 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:22:40.699000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Was it fixed as in “did the MSM, the Deep State and the Liberal Elite gang up on Trump and use everything in their power",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False,True,7501.3996,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T03:30:47.868000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/tiktok-ban-bill-senate.html + there's a chance this bill passes, but i can",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:54:22.420000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"what insults? Saying verifiably true things about your behavior isn't an insult, and you trying to brush it off as one m",increase,hold,False,True,18968.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T19:08:16.740000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:,increase,hold,False,True,9801.0425,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:59:31.297000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,they might be? Might be money to be made there.,decrease,flip,False,True,6720.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:26:51.856000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information ,hold,hold,True,True,59.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,increase,hold,False,True,610.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T12:07:09.812000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also in general they have insane odds for lots of the Democratic candidates, like saying that there’s a 7.5% chance that",flip,increase,False,True,1498.8179,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-05T05:48:36.214000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",There will be congressional bills this year and I expect at least one to address staffing and agencies and some privatiz,decrease,increase,False,True,4250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-21T20:08:09.911000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle. +What has shifted the",flip,hold,False,True,999.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True,True,0.0598,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T22:34:54.617000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Exemptions are usually only for those cooperating as a witness to other crimes. +Exemption 1: No +Exemption 2: No +Exemp",increase,flip,False,True,965.4652,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-09T00:56:55.269000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Likely halving the staff at NIH (18K), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (12K), NSF (2K). This would mean ",decrease,increase,False,True,5250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:50:09.044000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Thanks for the link. CNN + NBC seems sufficient to resolve.,increase,hold,False,True,8688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,hold,True,True,1619.436,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:15:49.773000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,my advice is to take the free 2x while u still can,flip,increase,False,True,7375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:47:54.170000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","President Trump required that “Agency Heads shall promptly undertake preparations to +initiate large-scale reductions in",decrease,increase,False,True,9687.182,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:35:38.716000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Literally does not matter. Only the economy matters.,decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,flip,False,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:47:20.038000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Hm maybe FRED is net and the other numbers are gross? Obviously all sorts of orgs are cutting positions all time. And I ,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:53:48.850000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Keep the insults coming. I'm from Canada and have been following Canadian politics for 35+ years and speak English and F,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,decrease,False,True,3289.0943,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.8713,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-13T18:58:20.129000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","free money to vote no, especially if you consider the new ICE hires. Not even mentioning their ugly breakup and the TACO",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,1088.7634,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:14:42.997000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Why can't you separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from the popularity of the Conservatives? You said it's ""pretty simpl",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True,True,415.8683,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False,True,3702.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-20T12:01:07.793000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","“Will Biden resign” was at absurdly high numbers like a week before he did IIRC. This is a thin market, a couple of whal",hold,decrease,False,True,27996.2742,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,increase,False,True,2380.5311,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T01:05:16.863000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,DC will be sold to Russia and the proceeds will go to student loan forgiveness,increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False,True,2983.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:10:16.387000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,betting on a technical shutdown at this point...,increase,hold,False,True,500.597,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-03T02:30:10.982000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare ru,decrease,hold,False,True,350.9726,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-06T20:16:41.579000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Just to confirm... if it is a liberal and ndp coalition then this will resolve yes?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:26:32.153000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",people can bet on the data as they’d like but keep in mind that tbe survey period doesn’t cover much of the major recent,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,flip,False,True,8345.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-17T18:12:06.876000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,She’s the type of person to tell you how she prepares the food that you prepared for her and say “oh honey we gotta get ,increase,hold,False,True,5672.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T19:59:27.595000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","paradoxically I think it’s better evidence earlier in the process, because it’s only later that falling short of your ta",decrease,hold,False,True,22478.6138,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T01:08:59.201000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,what the hell do you even mean with 'wokeism'? Like can you define it?,flip,hold,False,True,1494.5198,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T00:48:54.477000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Go back to kindergarten lil bro. If there is a coin that is heads 8 times out of 10, but idiot will sell you heads for e",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,increase,False,True,103279.7519,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:32:13.884000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I don't think he was surprised, I think he was attacking the other person for not understanding that it was tongue-in-ch",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:32:41.470000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I'm betting yes because the senate can't modify bills, ~congress~ the house has to; and ~congress~ the house isn't sched",increase,hold,False,True,585.5058,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:07:31.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T22:30:08.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +Damn, I think I might have been wrong on this. It",increase,flip,False,True,48077.7438,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-18T01:01:56.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,the shape of this market is bizarre,decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:53:56.101000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Even if what youre saying is true, would these elites' purpose be better served by arresting him rather than not arresti",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-24T12:06:01.905000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"great, the man knows how to win an election from a basement",decrease,flip,False,True,185.7076,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:10:28.986000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"i think he's very clear here: he's not citing election betting odds, he's citing the general sense of complacency among ",increase,decrease,False,True,27488.8375,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:32:05.707000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,i am suspicious and turning it off,increase,decrease,False,True,6660.7033,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T03:01:59.998000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's approval ratings aren't great, but neither were Trump's. +I don't think this race is going to be a guaranteed vi",increase,hold,False,True,323.0986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-01-14T17:24:41.046000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,16% on electionbettingodds.com,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T12:34:21.792000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","It means spotting when people's political beliefs are clouding their judgment. For example causing them to bet that +An",increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:34:59.882000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as ""Have you ever been under arrest?",increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:03:33.137000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility),hold,decrease,False,True,188165.7823,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T15:41:31.287000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I verified with searches. Biden hired 1200 DEI staffers in the last weeks of his administration in order to force a trum,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T10:17:05.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm really struggling to make a number that low ""add up"". 80% odds of Biden nom (Dem primaries are basically non-competi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,flip,False,True,13948.8726,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:07:41.026000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There's the opposite of fees, many markets have rewards for liquidity providers",increase,hold,False,True,25516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T17:55:26.653000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Kind of odd to me that this market is bullish on Harris's chances, while the individual state markets remain bearish. Pl",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-21T19:02:41.897000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,betting on some twists from the Supreme Court. Yes for Biden.,flip,increase,False,True,99.0701,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:33:12.072000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if you believe that report, it should be an incredibly bear-ish sign for this market. In a time period the report says t",flip,decrease,False,True,54117.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:59:39.332000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"To be honest, I don't think the polls are going to get a whole lot better for the Liberals as the election draws nearer.",decrease,decrease,True,True,123.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-12T10:31:08.902000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"it's not just Biden VS Trump- there may be 3,4,5,6 candidates on the ballot... Trump could very well win with 42% of the",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:13:51.735000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I think in the case of Iran it's easier to seperate the people from the goverment, since it's well known the regime is u",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:57:32.818000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I think if there’s really the votes for it, they’ll make it happen (~65%).",increase,increase,True,True,937.322,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True,True,87013.1764,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True,True,141.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T13:34:52.170000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Equally compelling arguments that suppressing it is a violation of the public’s right to information about the candidate,decrease,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-03T19:14:18.706000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Arguably, the indictments make it more likely that Trump stops running for president and Biden faces a more popular oppo",flip,flip,True,True,10.0084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:50:45.959000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If you were wrong, how would you know?",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",flip,hold,False,True,3766.8119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:34:25.166000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,House approves 3-year Affordable Care Act tax credit extension as lawmakers eye compromise in Senate,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False,True,975.9313,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:04:50.335000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing mor",hold,decrease,False,True,2525.6016,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T05:18:55.319000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,You're missing the fact that you shouldn't listen to the real money markets (you shouldn't necessarily listen to Manifol,decrease,increase,False,True,161.2357,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False,True,580.3465,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-09T12:57:35.522000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: +https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains",decrease,hold,False,True,3159.8237,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True,True,1178.4585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:00.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""The Liberals"" is a shorthand for the Liberal Party of Canada. The fact you transparently admit you're playing semantic ",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-04T17:37:17.461000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","-privatization of USPS would require an act of congress +-do you think it's realistic that the admin is going to wholesa",flip,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T01:31:38.962000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","This is trading substantially below Kalshi, fyi: +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-",decrease,hold,False,True,21440.2194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:55:54.763000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","FWIW, it appears that USAJOBS is still up... +https://www.usajobs.gov/search/results/?l=Washington,%20District%20of%20C",decrease,hold,False,True,225.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:33:50.212000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,It wouldn't be that surprising IMO. The sheriff said he would take a mugshot as per SOP unless someone told him otherwis,increase,decrease,False,True,5241.1364,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False,True,672.2392,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,increase,False,True,1237.1156,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-07T21:58:05.441000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So, I'm not saying that it's actually going to happen, but if there is an attempt at an inter-decennial census between n",decrease,hold,False,True,149.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False,True,4456.8333,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False,True,323.1628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-04T00:07:01.429000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,100% - the last few days my email has been a steady stream of rubbish from him.,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T02:04:09.868000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It’s trumps America, we are all just living in it. Crazy",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-14T23:43:30.656000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",sorry axis on second chart should be thousands not millions,increase,hold,False,True,1417.959,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T22:55:10.906000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I believe discharge petitions only apply to the House.,increase,hold,False,True,5747.0952,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,flip,False,True,8445.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T06:04:44.364000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I don't like this poll because there are two options to vote against Republicans and only one option for democrats.,decrease,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T19:56:59.336000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think it has more to do with potential. If this is unscripted Joe Biden now this is most likely going to be unscripted,increase,decrease,False,True,3677.8751,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T06:43:41.991000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So assuming you believe what you say: what, is 4:1 over 12 months not above your opportunity cost?",increase,increase,True,True,47318.7438,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-11T05:17:44.562000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"she could flip NC by 1.1%, lose PA + AZ + NV and still lose anyway?",decrease,decrease,True,True,818.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,758.7898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T16:09:37.942000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",are you saying Tate fans are well distributed in the right/left spectrum ?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",flip,decrease,False,True,108.2427,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,flip,False,True,935.5724,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:45:14.814000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""it's about drama. actually arresting him risks creating some serious blowback."" +Serious blowback is distracting drama,",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-10T01:41:26.456000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"> ""The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today"" +The date of the next general wil",flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:27:04.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I appreciate when people announce that their bets are irrational,increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T05:04:27.877000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The 2016 election may have shown otherwise,hold,flip,False,True,9.5181,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T15:02:15.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah the Ben Shapiro position is actually insane. ""Yeah he tried to say fuck the Constitution and stage a coup, but it d",flip,flip,True,True,3794.5198,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T15:25:24.868000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Any NO limits you guys want to put up, my mana is burning my pockets.",flip,increase,False,True,425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,decrease,False,True,33.8459,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T23:40:04.946000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I just saw on CNN an NYPD detective say Trump cannot avoid being arrested in NYC if charged as expected. There is no pro,flip,increase,False,True,9744.9831,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T00:49:18.337000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","OMB Vought says over 10,000 will be fired. +https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/federal-layoffs-russell-vought-government-s",decrease,increase,False,True,13298.4919,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-31T15:28:49.584000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lol why is this being boosted? I think people already know about this question!,flip,hold,False,True,45395.1788,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T20:37:39.555000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,took my yes profit and bought a tiny NO because I think Musk has a good chance of just making an org and calling it “the,flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T03:33:34.493000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers. +If you cannot handle me providing answers to someo",decrease,flip,False,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T06:23:16.901000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"If the prime minister/cabinet are NDP, that would be a NO",decrease,hold,False,True,0.9994,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:22:35.083000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Polymarket skims off the top of bets. Judging by this image (which I just screencapped off a random market), it looks li",increase,hold,False,True,25678.9985,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T14:55:23.833000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Maybe there's not a deal after all? +https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5714316-senate-government-funding-shutdown/amp",decrease,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T23:21:53.712000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/ +Over the past five f",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False,True,415.8683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:52:00.703000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that's a good problem to have ggs,hold,hold,True,True,10443.4352,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T16:40:33.334000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,People feel Trump is such a bad candidate that it should be a slam dunk. It being 50/50 is terrible odds considering peo,increase,flip,False,True,5012.1905,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True,True,5.4799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:32:29.339000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"@PeterNjeim +The whole point of the arbitrage is that there's no belief necessary, only profit. +I guess if I were to tr",increase,hold,False,True,582.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T14:58:13.750000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,This is just some random account,flip,hold,False,True,5073.2813,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:21:52.382000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"But you see the disjunction, right? The NY statute clearly understands a surrender as an alternative to an ""arrest"", not",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T21:26:48.328000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","smh, didn't realize there was a Kalshi question linked to this 📉",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-14T12:23:43.363000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","According to reddit, a confirmed list of agencies with layoffs to probationary employees: +Consumer Financial Protection",flip,increase,False,True,124.3502,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-20T03:54:35.931000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So far this week +6700 IRS to be laid off Feb 10 +~10000 USAID +Thousands from HHS +2000 Dept of Energy +Dept of Agricul",decrease,increase,False,True,6751.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,decrease,False,True,1920.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-25T17:29:51.507000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Just a reminder that you guys tried to milk this last time and it didn't work. It may be time to look for new strategies,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True,True,1095.8342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:28:19.864000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not sure it will move the needle that much, but Trump started off ahead in polling before the debate, and Biden need",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T05:58:53.923000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Ah, but the problem here is that you don't actually care about that unless you average out over all possibilities. +The ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:53:13.473000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, this is a less likely case, but if at resolution time Manifold favors candidate X and other prediction markets fav",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:13:05.586000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"look at swing state polls + the ""fundamentals"" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say ""fundamentals"" w.r.t. pre",decrease,increase,False,True,1897.7998,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:38:37.592000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",and yes i don't see much difference between this comment section and those of the popular markets during the election it,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-06T03:10:08.022000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also: vote Taylor Swift! +https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of +Will she win before",increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T19:33:06.292000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I do think Biden is going to win, but I'm not as confident in it as you are. Are you thinking his polling turns around, ",flip,decrease,False,True,45395.1788,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True,True,65.7603,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:46:46.047000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"literally what did anything I say have to do with kool-aid, talking facts you can talk Vibes all you want to what's your",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:16:45.048000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,why was this ever trading below 25%?,flip,increase,False,True,12767.0158,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T04:27:48.650000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",The big spikes followed by drops are probably from the census every ten years. It's not as volatile as it might seem.,decrease,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T19:17:35.183000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,seriously someone explain to me how this shutdown doesn't happen? like at this point the only realistic path is a comple,increase,increase,True,True,106067.4686,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",flip,decrease,False,True,896.6667,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-08T18:02:02.737000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would t",decrease,hold,False,True,21745.1679,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-22T01:10:20.016000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"The only new news is +https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/fulton-county-da-office-negotiations-trump/index.html + b",increase,hold,False,True,9359.7626,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-01T22:12:42.014000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?",increase,decrease,False,True,277.7778,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T19:09:05.585000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"again, that's a ""technical term"" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True,True,262.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-07T12:24:19.182000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Not wise to take the resignation deal in the economy we’re about to see.,increase,decrease,False,True,6560.0235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:53:10.156000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I find + a great forecaster and I admire him a ton, but he clearly missing the story here, possibly because he's poli",flip,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:10:59.078000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","yeah, I understand that conceptually, you can go to Iowa and perhaps see a big surprise there. The caucus process makes ",flip,hold,False,True,240.8393,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T02:03:26+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Neither. Do you want to address +the very next sentence + where I describe how the two points are one and the same? Or ",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,increase,False,True,10790.8908,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T03:46:49.225000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that’s not how politics works. A shutdown is a win for the Democrats no matter if it actually is effective or not. The G,decrease,flip,False,True,2300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-30T18:34:23.241000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Chat GPT to sway the predictions coming in strong.,increase,increase,True,True,17598.5551,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True,True,5965.4652,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:00:44.034000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"love how these markets always frustratingly trade at some 6-7% premium from Polymarket for no apparent reason, since the",decrease,hold,False,True,20274.3185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:40:47.100000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lots of pieces of infrastructure can be routed around without too much efficiency cost if they're arbitrarily banned. Bu,hold,hold,True,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-28T04:11:31.916000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I think a couple of them are Manifold users,increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False,True,64.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:05:20.239000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""many times did you guys crow, ""they've got him now!"" only to be wrong again."" +Me? Literally never.",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True,True,5252.1603,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,increase,False,True,1160.9653,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:49:20.506000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,there are coalitions in three party systems,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True,True,10688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T01:18:12.888000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,I'm already exposed enough or I would have taken the other market's orders.,hold,hold,True,True,7188.4427,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-23T12:56:55.233000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","The two idiots in the white house thought they could pull this off and it was looking pretty bad +But then the the peop",decrease,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:52:18.576000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,atleast im not the worst when it comes to rinsing,flip,hold,False,True,10353.6204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-07T22:54:20.954000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Have you heard of Donald Trump?,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-07T19:47:39.805000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,It could also be that the stock market was responding to how the OBBBA clawed back some EV car mandates. Less government,increase,hold,False,True,53.7471,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:47:54.533000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Everything you just said is highly illogical. Arbitrage is profitable because it improves accuracy of the markets. It su,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:30:22.311000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden needed a win and clearly won't get one. Trump didn't say anything stupid on abortion or J6.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:36:43.810000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why are you necroing a 2-day old thread. Poe's law doesn't recommend changing your actions, it's just a warning that som",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T20:43:38.767000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Just how fake and gay is the whole electoral process? +Okay, I was pretty sure you were just trolling before, but now yo",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-03-24T13:22:55.973000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Related markets https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 +and https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-",flip,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T13:43:34.240000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Well no primary candidate has been stuck in multiple courtrooms during the campaign before either. Also, if he is remove",decrease,decrease,True,True,13169.0371,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-02T00:01:59.199000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.,hold,hold,True,True,2575.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T19:44:09.783000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","@Ziddletwix + will this be the data point you use as the “before” point for resolving this market? +I assume so? My plan",flip,hold,False,True,7988.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-15T14:25:52.939000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",All probationary and new hires of less than 2 years are getting kicked out. Already thousands from each of many major ag,decrease,increase,False,True,6201.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:19:30.831000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"but also, it you'd like to bet on the odds of a recession in 2024, I've put up some big limit orders here: +https://man",decrease,hold,False,True,1897.7998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T23:31:52.265000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"okay last thing though jim jones made his followers drink poisoned Flavor-Aid, not Kool-Aid. Please stop besmirching the",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T03:08:16.604000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"When it's a prediction market like this, no longer than November 6th",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T20:30:55.399000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"This tweet explains the near-term stress, but not the final outcome. Senate gridlock + DHS disputes happen almost every ",increase,decrease,False,True,910.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:34:35.452000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"PS: It's 20% because if the gap gets too slim I'd have to sink hundreds in to get anything, and that's no good",increase,decrease,False,True,582.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:19:09.389000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"New York state law for reference: +https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php +Following an arrest, or following the a",increase,hold,False,True,2987.42,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T01:54:34.285000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,That would explain why Trump is suddenly in favor of it!,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-26T21:40:56.092000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's polling down right now. Also, his approval seems stuck at 38%, and likely will not recover anytime soon (as Isra",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:20.826000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's age is high, +His mental state, a lie. +2024's out of reach, +His campaign in defeat.",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-14T20:54:10.622000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,would you say Mr. Trump is a typical 76-year-old American man?,increase,hold,False,True,31.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-11T08:28:15.956000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Isn’t it weird that the gov employees report hasn’t been updated since October?,increase,flip,False,True,545.6412,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-28T09:50:41.373000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how is it that clear Ben? It’s just a gov shut down.,flip,flip,True,True,314.4593,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-25T18:43:56.431000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if all is rational in the world, there’s at least 10% chance you’ll make a toooon of mana at year’s end, no need for the",increase,increase,True,True,280.1176,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-09T14:00:36.226000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",wow. Are there sources for all these incredible claims?,decrease,decrease,True,True,41233.9753,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-28T09:11:09.394000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I imagine he's more likely to be indicted than to be arrested. Though I haven't looked into the matter much - after read,increase,decrease,False,True,324.3819,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..36b135a59953e4f2ddf8db9833a895516c3d0544 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,310 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:22:40.699000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Was it fixed as in “did the MSM, the Deep State and the Liberal Elite gang up on Trump and use everything in their power",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False,True,7501.3996,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T03:30:47.868000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/tiktok-ban-bill-senate.html + there's a chance this bill passes, but i can",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:54:22.420000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"what insults? Saying verifiably true things about your behavior isn't an insult, and you trying to brush it off as one m",increase,hold,False,True,18968.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T19:08:16.740000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:,increase,hold,False,True,9801.0425,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:59:31.297000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,they might be? Might be money to be made there.,decrease,flip,False,True,6720.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:26:51.856000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information ,hold,hold,True,True,59.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,increase,hold,False,True,610.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T12:07:09.812000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also in general they have insane odds for lots of the Democratic candidates, like saying that there’s a 7.5% chance that",flip,increase,False,True,1498.8179,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-05T05:48:36.214000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",There will be congressional bills this year and I expect at least one to address staffing and agencies and some privatiz,decrease,increase,False,True,4250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-21T20:08:09.911000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle. +What has shifted the",flip,hold,False,True,999.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True,True,0.0598,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T22:34:54.617000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Exemptions are usually only for those cooperating as a witness to other crimes. +Exemption 1: No +Exemption 2: No +Exemp",increase,flip,False,True,965.4652,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-09T00:56:55.269000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Likely halving the staff at NIH (18K), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (12K), NSF (2K). This would mean ",decrease,increase,False,True,5250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:50:09.044000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Thanks for the link. CNN + NBC seems sufficient to resolve.,increase,hold,False,True,8688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,hold,True,True,1619.436,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:15:49.773000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,my advice is to take the free 2x while u still can,flip,increase,False,True,7375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:47:54.170000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","President Trump required that “Agency Heads shall promptly undertake preparations to +initiate large-scale reductions in",decrease,increase,False,True,9687.182,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:35:38.716000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Literally does not matter. Only the economy matters.,decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,flip,False,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:47:20.038000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Hm maybe FRED is net and the other numbers are gross? Obviously all sorts of orgs are cutting positions all time. And I ,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:53:48.850000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Keep the insults coming. I'm from Canada and have been following Canadian politics for 35+ years and speak English and F,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,decrease,False,True,3289.0943,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.8713,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-13T18:58:20.129000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","free money to vote no, especially if you consider the new ICE hires. Not even mentioning their ugly breakup and the TACO",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,1088.7634,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:14:42.997000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Why can't you separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from the popularity of the Conservatives? You said it's ""pretty simpl",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True,True,415.8683,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False,True,3702.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-20T12:01:07.793000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","“Will Biden resign” was at absurdly high numbers like a week before he did IIRC. This is a thin market, a couple of whal",hold,decrease,False,True,27996.2742,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,increase,False,True,2380.5311,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T01:05:16.863000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,DC will be sold to Russia and the proceeds will go to student loan forgiveness,increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False,True,2983.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:10:16.387000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,betting on a technical shutdown at this point...,increase,hold,False,True,500.597,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-03T02:30:10.982000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare ru,decrease,hold,False,True,350.9726,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-06T20:16:41.579000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Just to confirm... if it is a liberal and ndp coalition then this will resolve yes?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:26:32.153000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",people can bet on the data as they’d like but keep in mind that tbe survey period doesn’t cover much of the major recent,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,flip,False,True,8345.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-17T18:12:06.876000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,She’s the type of person to tell you how she prepares the food that you prepared for her and say “oh honey we gotta get ,increase,hold,False,True,5672.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T19:59:27.595000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","paradoxically I think it’s better evidence earlier in the process, because it’s only later that falling short of your ta",decrease,hold,False,True,22478.6138,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T01:08:59.201000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,what the hell do you even mean with 'wokeism'? Like can you define it?,flip,hold,False,True,1494.5198,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T00:48:54.477000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Go back to kindergarten lil bro. If there is a coin that is heads 8 times out of 10, but idiot will sell you heads for e",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,increase,False,True,103279.7519,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:32:13.884000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I don't think he was surprised, I think he was attacking the other person for not understanding that it was tongue-in-ch",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:32:41.470000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I'm betting yes because the senate can't modify bills, ~congress~ the house has to; and ~congress~ the house isn't sched",increase,hold,False,True,585.5058,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:07:31.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T22:30:08.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +Damn, I think I might have been wrong on this. It",increase,flip,False,True,48077.7438,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-18T01:01:56.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,the shape of this market is bizarre,decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:53:56.101000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Even if what youre saying is true, would these elites' purpose be better served by arresting him rather than not arresti",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-24T12:06:01.905000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"great, the man knows how to win an election from a basement",decrease,flip,False,True,185.7076,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:10:28.986000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"i think he's very clear here: he's not citing election betting odds, he's citing the general sense of complacency among ",increase,decrease,False,True,27488.8375,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:32:05.707000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,i am suspicious and turning it off,increase,decrease,False,True,6660.7033,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T03:01:59.998000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's approval ratings aren't great, but neither were Trump's. +I don't think this race is going to be a guaranteed vi",increase,hold,False,True,323.0986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-01-14T17:24:41.046000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,16% on electionbettingodds.com,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T12:34:21.792000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","It means spotting when people's political beliefs are clouding their judgment. For example causing them to bet that +An",increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:34:59.882000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as ""Have you ever been under arrest?",increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:03:33.137000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility),hold,decrease,False,True,188165.7823,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T15:41:31.287000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I verified with searches. Biden hired 1200 DEI staffers in the last weeks of his administration in order to force a trum,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T10:17:05.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm really struggling to make a number that low ""add up"". 80% odds of Biden nom (Dem primaries are basically non-competi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,flip,False,True,13948.8726,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:07:41.026000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There's the opposite of fees, many markets have rewards for liquidity providers",increase,hold,False,True,25516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T17:55:26.653000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Kind of odd to me that this market is bullish on Harris's chances, while the individual state markets remain bearish. Pl",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-21T19:02:41.897000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,betting on some twists from the Supreme Court. Yes for Biden.,flip,increase,False,True,99.0701,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:33:12.072000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if you believe that report, it should be an incredibly bear-ish sign for this market. In a time period the report says t",flip,decrease,False,True,54117.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:59:39.332000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"To be honest, I don't think the polls are going to get a whole lot better for the Liberals as the election draws nearer.",decrease,decrease,True,True,123.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-12T10:31:08.902000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"it's not just Biden VS Trump- there may be 3,4,5,6 candidates on the ballot... Trump could very well win with 42% of the",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:13:51.735000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I think in the case of Iran it's easier to seperate the people from the goverment, since it's well known the regime is u",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:57:32.818000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I think if there’s really the votes for it, they’ll make it happen (~65%).",increase,increase,True,True,937.322,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True,True,87013.1764,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True,True,141.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T13:34:52.170000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Equally compelling arguments that suppressing it is a violation of the public’s right to information about the candidate,decrease,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-03T19:14:18.706000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Arguably, the indictments make it more likely that Trump stops running for president and Biden faces a more popular oppo",flip,flip,True,True,10.0084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:50:45.959000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If you were wrong, how would you know?",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",flip,hold,False,True,3766.8119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:34:25.166000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,House approves 3-year Affordable Care Act tax credit extension as lawmakers eye compromise in Senate,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False,True,975.9313,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:04:50.335000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing mor",hold,decrease,False,True,2525.6016,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T05:18:55.319000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,You're missing the fact that you shouldn't listen to the real money markets (you shouldn't necessarily listen to Manifol,decrease,increase,False,True,161.2357,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False,True,580.3465,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-09T12:57:35.522000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: +https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains",decrease,hold,False,True,3159.8237,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True,True,1178.4585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:00.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""The Liberals"" is a shorthand for the Liberal Party of Canada. The fact you transparently admit you're playing semantic ",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-04T17:37:17.461000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","-privatization of USPS would require an act of congress +-do you think it's realistic that the admin is going to wholesa",flip,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T01:31:38.962000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","This is trading substantially below Kalshi, fyi: +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-",decrease,hold,False,True,21440.2194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:55:54.763000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","FWIW, it appears that USAJOBS is still up... +https://www.usajobs.gov/search/results/?l=Washington,%20District%20of%20C",decrease,hold,False,True,225.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:33:50.212000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,It wouldn't be that surprising IMO. The sheriff said he would take a mugshot as per SOP unless someone told him otherwis,increase,decrease,False,True,5241.1364,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False,True,672.2392,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,increase,False,True,1237.1156,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-07T21:58:05.441000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So, I'm not saying that it's actually going to happen, but if there is an attempt at an inter-decennial census between n",decrease,hold,False,True,149.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False,True,4456.8333,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False,True,323.1628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-04T00:07:01.429000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,100% - the last few days my email has been a steady stream of rubbish from him.,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T02:04:09.868000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It’s trumps America, we are all just living in it. Crazy",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-14T23:43:30.656000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",sorry axis on second chart should be thousands not millions,increase,hold,False,True,1417.959,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T22:55:10.906000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I believe discharge petitions only apply to the House.,increase,hold,False,True,5747.0952,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,flip,False,True,8445.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T06:04:44.364000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I don't like this poll because there are two options to vote against Republicans and only one option for democrats.,decrease,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T19:56:59.336000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think it has more to do with potential. If this is unscripted Joe Biden now this is most likely going to be unscripted,increase,decrease,False,True,3677.8751,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T06:43:41.991000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So assuming you believe what you say: what, is 4:1 over 12 months not above your opportunity cost?",increase,increase,True,True,47318.7438,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-11T05:17:44.562000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"she could flip NC by 1.1%, lose PA + AZ + NV and still lose anyway?",decrease,decrease,True,True,818.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,758.7898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T16:09:37.942000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",are you saying Tate fans are well distributed in the right/left spectrum ?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",flip,decrease,False,True,108.2427,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,flip,False,True,935.5724,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:45:14.814000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""it's about drama. actually arresting him risks creating some serious blowback."" +Serious blowback is distracting drama,",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-10T01:41:26.456000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"> ""The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today"" +The date of the next general wil",flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:27:04.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I appreciate when people announce that their bets are irrational,increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T05:04:27.877000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The 2016 election may have shown otherwise,hold,flip,False,True,9.5181,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T15:02:15.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah the Ben Shapiro position is actually insane. ""Yeah he tried to say fuck the Constitution and stage a coup, but it d",flip,flip,True,True,3794.5198,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T15:25:24.868000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Any NO limits you guys want to put up, my mana is burning my pockets.",flip,increase,False,True,425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,decrease,False,True,33.8459,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T23:40:04.946000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I just saw on CNN an NYPD detective say Trump cannot avoid being arrested in NYC if charged as expected. There is no pro,flip,increase,False,True,9744.9831,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T00:49:18.337000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","OMB Vought says over 10,000 will be fired. +https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/federal-layoffs-russell-vought-government-s",decrease,increase,False,True,13298.4919,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-31T15:28:49.584000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lol why is this being boosted? I think people already know about this question!,flip,hold,False,True,45395.1788,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T20:37:39.555000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,took my yes profit and bought a tiny NO because I think Musk has a good chance of just making an org and calling it “the,flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T03:33:34.493000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers. +If you cannot handle me providing answers to someo",decrease,flip,False,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T06:23:16.901000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"If the prime minister/cabinet are NDP, that would be a NO",decrease,hold,False,True,0.9994,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:22:35.083000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Polymarket skims off the top of bets. Judging by this image (which I just screencapped off a random market), it looks li",increase,hold,False,True,25678.9985,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T14:55:23.833000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Maybe there's not a deal after all? +https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5714316-senate-government-funding-shutdown/amp",decrease,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T23:21:53.712000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/ +Over the past five f",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False,True,415.8683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:52:00.703000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that's a good problem to have ggs,hold,hold,True,True,10443.4352,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T16:40:33.334000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,People feel Trump is such a bad candidate that it should be a slam dunk. It being 50/50 is terrible odds considering peo,increase,flip,False,True,5012.1905,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True,True,5.4799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:32:29.339000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"@PeterNjeim +The whole point of the arbitrage is that there's no belief necessary, only profit. +I guess if I were to tr",increase,hold,False,True,582.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T14:58:13.750000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,This is just some random account,flip,hold,False,True,5073.2813,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:21:52.382000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"But you see the disjunction, right? The NY statute clearly understands a surrender as an alternative to an ""arrest"", not",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T21:26:48.328000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","smh, didn't realize there was a Kalshi question linked to this 📉",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-14T12:23:43.363000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","According to reddit, a confirmed list of agencies with layoffs to probationary employees: +Consumer Financial Protection",flip,increase,False,True,124.3502,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-20T03:54:35.931000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So far this week +6700 IRS to be laid off Feb 10 +~10000 USAID +Thousands from HHS +2000 Dept of Energy +Dept of Agricul",decrease,increase,False,True,6751.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,decrease,False,True,1920.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-25T17:29:51.507000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Just a reminder that you guys tried to milk this last time and it didn't work. It may be time to look for new strategies,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True,True,1095.8342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:28:19.864000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not sure it will move the needle that much, but Trump started off ahead in polling before the debate, and Biden need",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T05:58:53.923000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Ah, but the problem here is that you don't actually care about that unless you average out over all possibilities. +The ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:53:13.473000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, this is a less likely case, but if at resolution time Manifold favors candidate X and other prediction markets fav",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:13:05.586000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"look at swing state polls + the ""fundamentals"" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say ""fundamentals"" w.r.t. pre",decrease,increase,False,True,1897.7998,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:38:37.592000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",and yes i don't see much difference between this comment section and those of the popular markets during the election it,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-06T03:10:08.022000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also: vote Taylor Swift! +https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of +Will she win before",increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T19:33:06.292000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I do think Biden is going to win, but I'm not as confident in it as you are. Are you thinking his polling turns around, ",flip,decrease,False,True,45395.1788,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True,True,65.7603,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:46:46.047000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"literally what did anything I say have to do with kool-aid, talking facts you can talk Vibes all you want to what's your",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:16:45.048000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,why was this ever trading below 25%?,flip,increase,False,True,12767.0158,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T04:27:48.650000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",The big spikes followed by drops are probably from the census every ten years. It's not as volatile as it might seem.,decrease,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T19:17:35.183000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,seriously someone explain to me how this shutdown doesn't happen? like at this point the only realistic path is a comple,increase,increase,True,True,106067.4686,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",flip,decrease,False,True,896.6667,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-08T18:02:02.737000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would t",decrease,hold,False,True,21745.1679,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-22T01:10:20.016000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"The only new news is +https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/fulton-county-da-office-negotiations-trump/index.html + b",increase,hold,False,True,9359.7626,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-01T22:12:42.014000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?",increase,decrease,False,True,277.7778,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T19:09:05.585000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"again, that's a ""technical term"" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True,True,262.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-07T12:24:19.182000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Not wise to take the resignation deal in the economy we’re about to see.,increase,decrease,False,True,6560.0235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:53:10.156000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I find + a great forecaster and I admire him a ton, but he clearly missing the story here, possibly because he's poli",flip,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:10:59.078000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","yeah, I understand that conceptually, you can go to Iowa and perhaps see a big surprise there. The caucus process makes ",flip,hold,False,True,240.8393,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T02:03:26+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Neither. Do you want to address +the very next sentence + where I describe how the two points are one and the same? Or ",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,increase,False,True,10790.8908,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T03:46:49.225000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that’s not how politics works. A shutdown is a win for the Democrats no matter if it actually is effective or not. The G,decrease,flip,False,True,2300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-30T18:34:23.241000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Chat GPT to sway the predictions coming in strong.,increase,increase,True,True,17598.5551,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True,True,5965.4652,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:00:44.034000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"love how these markets always frustratingly trade at some 6-7% premium from Polymarket for no apparent reason, since the",decrease,hold,False,True,20274.3185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:40:47.100000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lots of pieces of infrastructure can be routed around without too much efficiency cost if they're arbitrarily banned. Bu,hold,hold,True,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-28T04:11:31.916000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I think a couple of them are Manifold users,increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False,True,64.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:05:20.239000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""many times did you guys crow, ""they've got him now!"" only to be wrong again."" +Me? Literally never.",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True,True,5252.1603,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,increase,False,True,1160.9653,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:49:20.506000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,there are coalitions in three party systems,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True,True,10688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T01:18:12.888000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,I'm already exposed enough or I would have taken the other market's orders.,hold,hold,True,True,7188.4427,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-23T12:56:55.233000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","The two idiots in the white house thought they could pull this off and it was looking pretty bad +But then the the peop",decrease,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:52:18.576000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,atleast im not the worst when it comes to rinsing,flip,hold,False,True,10353.6204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-07T22:54:20.954000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Have you heard of Donald Trump?,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-07T19:47:39.805000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,It could also be that the stock market was responding to how the OBBBA clawed back some EV car mandates. Less government,increase,hold,False,True,53.7471,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:47:54.533000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Everything you just said is highly illogical. Arbitrage is profitable because it improves accuracy of the markets. It su,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:30:22.311000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden needed a win and clearly won't get one. Trump didn't say anything stupid on abortion or J6.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:36:43.810000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why are you necroing a 2-day old thread. Poe's law doesn't recommend changing your actions, it's just a warning that som",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T20:43:38.767000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Just how fake and gay is the whole electoral process? +Okay, I was pretty sure you were just trolling before, but now yo",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-03-24T13:22:55.973000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Related markets https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 +and https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-",flip,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T13:43:34.240000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Well no primary candidate has been stuck in multiple courtrooms during the campaign before either. Also, if he is remove",decrease,decrease,True,True,13169.0371,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-02T00:01:59.199000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.,hold,hold,True,True,2575.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T19:44:09.783000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","@Ziddletwix + will this be the data point you use as the “before” point for resolving this market? +I assume so? My plan",flip,hold,False,True,7988.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-15T14:25:52.939000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",All probationary and new hires of less than 2 years are getting kicked out. Already thousands from each of many major ag,decrease,increase,False,True,6201.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:19:30.831000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"but also, it you'd like to bet on the odds of a recession in 2024, I've put up some big limit orders here: +https://man",decrease,hold,False,True,1897.7998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T23:31:52.265000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"okay last thing though jim jones made his followers drink poisoned Flavor-Aid, not Kool-Aid. Please stop besmirching the",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T03:08:16.604000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"When it's a prediction market like this, no longer than November 6th",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T20:30:55.399000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"This tweet explains the near-term stress, but not the final outcome. Senate gridlock + DHS disputes happen almost every ",increase,decrease,False,True,910.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:34:35.452000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"PS: It's 20% because if the gap gets too slim I'd have to sink hundreds in to get anything, and that's no good",increase,decrease,False,True,582.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:19:09.389000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"New York state law for reference: +https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php +Following an arrest, or following the a",increase,hold,False,True,2987.42,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T01:54:34.285000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,That would explain why Trump is suddenly in favor of it!,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-26T21:40:56.092000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's polling down right now. Also, his approval seems stuck at 38%, and likely will not recover anytime soon (as Isra",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:20.826000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's age is high, +His mental state, a lie. +2024's out of reach, +His campaign in defeat.",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-14T20:54:10.622000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,would you say Mr. Trump is a typical 76-year-old American man?,increase,hold,False,True,31.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-11T08:28:15.956000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Isn’t it weird that the gov employees report hasn’t been updated since October?,increase,flip,False,True,545.6412,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-28T09:50:41.373000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how is it that clear Ben? It’s just a gov shut down.,flip,flip,True,True,314.4593,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-25T18:43:56.431000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if all is rational in the world, there’s at least 10% chance you’ll make a toooon of mana at year’s end, no need for the",increase,increase,True,True,280.1176,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-09T14:00:36.226000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",wow. Are there sources for all these incredible claims?,decrease,decrease,True,True,41233.9753,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-28T09:11:09.394000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I imagine he's more likely to be indicted than to be arrested. Though I haven't looked into the matter much - after read,increase,decrease,False,True,324.3819,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..53e741c32c55a7e9600e3d1662f41da35cf717fe --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,306 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-18T18:47:02.954000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Groover Cleveland lost in 1888 and won in 1892. Gently reminding you that Trump is also running for re-election.,flip,flip,True,True,185.7076,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:29:00.001000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,For a while you were getting low prices on him running for a second term at all.,flip,hold,False,True,49.8691,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:07:41.026000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There's the opposite of fees, many markets have rewards for liquidity providers",increase,hold,False,True,25516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T09:06:03.235000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"In Georgia mugshots fall under Consumer Protection. While the information on that website is accurate, it also falls und",increase,increase,True,True,965.4652,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T19:08:16.740000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:,increase,hold,False,True,9801.0425,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:23:48.864000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I think if the Dems ban tiktok it would be the end for them,decrease,flip,False,True,25.1052,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True,True,65.7603,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T03:00:26.476000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Ever heard how long markets can remain irrational?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:37:16.591000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","no i mean the opposite—to the extent that i am aware of the political leanings of the top manifold traders, they are con",flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.8713,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False,True,3702.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-09T17:32:13.608000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,you can run from prison like Eugene Debs,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:13:05.586000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"look at swing state polls + the ""fundamentals"" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say ""fundamentals"" w.r.t. pre",decrease,increase,False,True,1897.7998,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-26T18:24:38.703000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Where are you getting these numbers?,increase,hold,False,True,44731.7438,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-02T13:03:47.497000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","pay CGT on your winning positions and claim a deduction on your losing position, you’d still make money",flip,hold,False,True,3253.1493,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:41:49.235000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Joe Biden, in the race +But his mind's stuck in outer space +With a son who loves to smoke crack +His chances of winning",decrease,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:59:39.332000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"To be honest, I don't think the polls are going to get a whole lot better for the Liberals as the election draws nearer.",decrease,decrease,True,True,123.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T00:18:40.011000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"i have no idea whats going on, or what the consequences of a partial shutdown would have on market resolution",decrease,hold,False,True,184.238,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-04T22:31:36.204000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"At least, to the extent that that's how the game is played.",flip,hold,False,True,352.6582,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-11T14:59:41.077000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lesser of evils by a country mile my friend. If any young person actually votes for Trump I will be shocked. Climate cha,hold,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-07T21:51:48.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"So if people think it passes the house but maybe not the senate, what's stopping it in the senate? Seems mostly bipartis",flip,flip,True,True,25.9313,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T05:39:03.094000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Is this the market you're looking for?,decrease,hold,False,True,161.2357,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:55:07.184000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today""",decrease,hold,False,True,123.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,increase,False,True,1160.9653,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True,True,0.0598,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,flip,False,True,13948.8726,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-26T21:55:33.816000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Searches on internet and asking the LLM. What percentage staff reductions some from different actions like requiring 100,increase,hold,False,True,1650.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:15:30.397000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"he's a honeymoon believer, can't wait for the election",hold,flip,False,True,42866.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,decrease,False,True,3289.0943,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:57:14.031000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I never said you had ""terrible English""? I said your comprehension was bad (as an alternative to calling you a troll, gi",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-09T17:31:39.239000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"While there is a vocal minority on either extreme, I think there is a significant number of American adults that aren’t ",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T02:17:47.426000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://apnews.com/article/irs-trump-tax-revenues-tariffs-eef2ab6930a8672a418af27f61efaed8 +Interesting post on the corr",increase,hold,False,True,45708.7438,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:17:33.645000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,But why would anyone agree if they can get much better odds elsewhere?,increase,flip,False,True,16.4382,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-04T16:53:38.755000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,One thing that might work against democrats is that people won't turn out if they don't believe he can win.,hold,decrease,False,True,5.8249,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T17:33:06.861000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",this is the behavior of someone willing to take a loss in order to manage public perception,decrease,decrease,True,True,65705.7614,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-15T18:57:46.068000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I think it's likely that about 40-70% (let's say 120k) of those are laid off, and the rest are deemed necessary. Then, ",increase,hold,False,True,3419.3662,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:15:10.941000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,He says a lot of things but rules for this market rn look like he needs to run someone who isn't identifying as another ,flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T00:52:57.248000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,you should fill my mistaken order at 59%,decrease,flip,False,True,12872.7396,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T01:22:26.431000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",IRS is drafting plans to cut 45000 out of 90000 employees,increase,increase,True,True,9637.182,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:56:53.329000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,You’re probably looking at the same markets I am. It’s a matter of e.g. spending about 200M to get a guaranteed 2M.,hold,increase,False,True,1088.7634,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:27:40.722000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,i started paying attention 90 minutes ago so hopefully that was a good bet,hold,hold,True,True,25265.4486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T19:09:05.585000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"again, that's a ""technical term"" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T13:24:46.605000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,My net exposure on Elon's political party this year is almost 10% of my NW.,hold,increase,False,True,7188.4427,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T02:22:27.965000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"it does not sound that strange to me, especially if the composition of senate and house are different and they have been",increase,decrease,False,True,425.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False,True,672.2392,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-26T09:41:35.746000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",although there's also the talk about letting people go en-masse during the shutdown,increase,flip,False,True,57.1442,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,flip,False,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T11:16:55.643000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Actually, when I watched the debate, I shifted from not voting to voting for Trump. +Trump is horrible. But what I real",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T03:30:47.868000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/tiktok-ban-bill-senate.html + there's a chance this bill passes, but i can",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-23T19:34:13.896000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I would hope that you wouldn't talk to people like this in person. This sentiment is why social media tend to be very un,increase,hold,False,True,1210.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-25T15:38:32.957000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Clarification: the first data point is NOT the one for December, it’s the one for January, right? +Same question about w",increase,hold,False,True,29703.7118,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:05:20.239000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""many times did you guys crow, ""they've got him now!"" only to be wrong again."" +Me? Literally never.",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T19:39:21.215000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,100% verified username with extra blue check mark? 😁,increase,flip,False,True,55.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:17:14.294000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Plus you are neglecting the criminal liability. He can’t even campaign if he is defending himself in court.,hold,decrease,False,True,512.0192,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-16T15:55:00.910000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","ah so one month fewer to swing? +Idk how much sense that makes if we expect the numbers that push us above 200/250k to ",decrease,decrease,True,True,69492.9085,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:18:01.631000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Manifold does NOT have fees in that sense. Quite the opposite! Manifold automatically subsidizes markets. Manifold does ,increase,hold,False,True,25678.9985,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-20T22:39:37.647000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,If only we knew who was the president on 1984. Sadly we will never know.,flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:00:44.034000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"love how these markets always frustratingly trade at some 6-7% premium from Polymarket for no apparent reason, since the",decrease,hold,False,True,20274.3185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-01T01:15:53.342000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",‘somewhat’ is doing some heavy lifting here,increase,decrease,False,True,12961.8738,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-06T08:46:24.830000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"If you don't want to wait for an election or announcement to run a candidate, then you shouldn't have used this definiti",increase,flip,False,True,102.7087,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,increase,False,True,2380.5311,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:27:16.379000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",id just assume when kalshi and manifold disagree manifold is wrong (unless the manifold counterparty is semiotic or some,flip,hold,False,True,21005.4533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:50:34.949000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I think the guidance you explained means that they have the +same + ability to RIF workers during the shutdown that the",decrease,hold,False,True,225.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T19:16:46.960000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Well, at least I'm not the only one who was confused by his use of the word. Though I still don't exactly get what his p",decrease,hold,False,True,161.2357,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-14T20:54:10.622000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,would you say Mr. Trump is a typical 76-year-old American man?,increase,hold,False,True,31.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T05:58:07.481000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Yes I went all in on this. I have my nuts. +I don’t think you do or believe what you claim to, otherwise you‘d take my m",increase,flip,False,True,46665.7438,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-18T06:16:46.029000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Nobody thinks he will do ""another four years just fine."" +He very obviously it not doing nearly as well as he was 4 year",hold,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:25:28.574000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I think the ""Harris flips a state but loses NC"" probability is coming mostly from Alaska. I don't have access to the mod",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-25T18:27:12.229000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","As I have been predicting, DOGE will shrink government (slow its rate of growth?) by only a modest amount, if at all. +h",decrease,decrease,True,True,32475.5994,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T18:43:13.761000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I think that's evidence for a high probability, not 50/50. If I have a goal to make 120,000 widgets in a year, and I've ",flip,increase,False,True,760.0846,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T21:59:34.671000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"He did not but there is a good chance he will in the next few weeks due to a fundraising headstart. Still, fundamentals ",flip,decrease,False,True,3702.7307,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-07-03T18:01:05.646000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"This is the last one, I swear. Using the new multiple choice markets",flip,hold,False,True,345.5569,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True,True,1095.8342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:13:23.767000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,9k up for 1 hour at 44% if you want it,decrease,flip,False,True,8997.6116,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-05T22:26:51.100000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm a No voter on this so far, but I suppose the Yes bull case is that there's a lot of attrition this administration, j",decrease,flip,False,True,220.1602,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T16:39:48.860000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",It's so wild that it's mid-October and this is still a 50/50,flip,flip,True,True,760.0846,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T22:19:19.593000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,That's interesting. Doesn't it infringe on rights of the arrested person which isn't convicted yet?,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2024-03-06T23:32:55.937000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I would argue it should resolve NO in that case since it still wouldn't be the Liberals forming the government, but that",hold,hold,True,True,12784.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T05:58:53.923000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Ah, but the problem here is that you don't actually care about that unless you average out over all possibilities. +The ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-02-18T17:28:05.672000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"please buy more mana, this game is less fun without you",flip,hold,False,True,1261.5163,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:43:50.399000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"""The definition of wokeism varies quite a bit depending on who you ask"" +That's probably why + asked lol",decrease,hold,False,True,1700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-09T00:15:11.437000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,actually i don't know about that it's hard to tell but that's my sense ig. more so when i am on the YES side though. not,increase,hold,False,True,6660.7033,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:48:58.367000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,my bags get dumped at the bookie's prob: 30%,decrease,decrease,True,True,6720.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-04T18:48:42.782000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i haven't been tracking the timings super closely but even for many of the layoffs that have been posted here, ther",flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-05T20:18:48.304000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"No, because there is no way any new party will get the 30+% of the vote it'd need to win. The vast majority of people",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False,True,7501.3996,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-27T03:15:42.292000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,great opportunity for those of you who bought no at higher prices to exit with profit,flip,decrease,False,True,1327.0209,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-28T04:11:31.916000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I think a couple of them are Manifold users,increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T19:33:06.292000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I do think Biden is going to win, but I'm not as confident in it as you are. Are you thinking his polling turns around, ",flip,decrease,False,True,45395.1788,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-15T05:29:50.118000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"wow, you attacked me without @'ing me, giving me no notification, how professional. I said it isn't worth it to respond,",increase,hold,False,True,18968.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-28T09:11:09.394000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I imagine he's more likely to be indicted than to be arrested. Though I haven't looked into the matter much - after read,increase,decrease,False,True,324.3819,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:22:05.328000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Dismissing the NY definition in favor of (your understanding of) the federal definition is like going to Spain and dismi,decrease,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T00:47:43.427000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I am saying the net will be a decrease of over 250K. I have provided loads of research, where the simple actions already",increase,increase,True,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:59:48.704000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I think you should try to remember that if if the conservatives are guarantied to win, and everyone else thinks they are",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-09T17:45:03.292000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/politics/elon-musk-backtracks-federal-budget-cuts/index.html + Some expectations manageme",decrease,decrease,True,True,150.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-04T19:20:05.566000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Polymarket + has Trump at 53-54% right now, so NO buyers should consider trading there.",decrease,flip,False,True,1204.1769,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-13T02:47:28.372000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I wish I could be talking to the author of that crap they call an article,increase,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T13:54:02.212000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Are the rules here the same as the real money markets?,flip,hold,False,True,2307.566,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,flip,False,True,935.5724,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T23:31:52.265000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"okay last thing though jim jones made his followers drink poisoned Flavor-Aid, not Kool-Aid. Please stop besmirching the",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-27T04:20:33.351000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"predictit is more biased and less accurate than manifold, because of position size limits & opportunity cost of capital",flip,hold,False,True,16187.4205,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-24T07:03:27.388000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Predicting election outcomes is challenging, and fully grasping past voting trends and demographic changes is elusive. """,increase,decrease,False,True,80.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T15:36:52.813000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Agreed. I'm featuring this market on the politics page so I'm going to edit the title.,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:32:03.171000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,House approves partial funding package as Congress races to avoid another shutdown,flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False,True,415.8683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T16:43:43.873000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Last night, the American people are hugging the children and crying for the safety of the nation. It is pure chaos and d",flip,flip,True,True,394.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T18:38:06.901000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"it seems very hard to predict, the OPM site is not very nimble, especially when a bill is in such disarray. WH friend te",decrease,decrease,True,True,596.9576,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False,True,323.1628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-18T12:48:58.606000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"if I were a billionaire trying to support some fella to the presidency, I'd make sure he has decent probabilities in all",flip,hold,False,True,185.7076,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T10:22:48.980000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden is barely functioning. At this rate we’re comparing the candidates at the least important level which is how well ,decrease,increase,False,True,5480.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-09T07:15:15.726000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Not even close. The fact that no one can even immediately identify this congressman by name immediately blows this posit,decrease,flip,False,True,396.1574,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-17T16:05:26.657000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I think the probationary category layoffs will be in the 90%+ range. Why would someone there less than 2 years be deemed,increase,increase,True,True,6601.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:20:22.354000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"no but forreal, how did your bot leverage like 60% of its NW into this market?",decrease,flip,False,True,22649.8143,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-01T16:33:30.579000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Currently fuming about not noticing when this market was at 2% and selling NO then,decrease,decrease,True,True,76.4419,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T16:13:36.197000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"The next most likely flips are Texas and Florida, but those have so many electoral votes that it would be almost impossi",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-30T18:27:40.153000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I've made a bounty about this with the new auto-bounty feature! It automatically pays out mana to people who get the mos,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:33:50.212000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,It wouldn't be that surprising IMO. The sheriff said he would take a mugshot as per SOP unless someone told him otherwis,increase,decrease,False,True,5241.1364,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-09-15T04:47:37.835000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,Is it just me or did this market have a spike earlier today to 90%+ that is not longer reflected in the price history?,hold,decrease,False,True,1382.3796,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:29:57.737000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",No one said that the presidency is decided by the popular vote. I was just pointing out that without the electoral colle,increase,decrease,False,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False,True,580.3465,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T00:14:04.522000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Couple points of difference, not much. Polling has a few points of error either way anyways. +Not really clear cut win.",decrease,hold,False,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-09T01:56:24.067000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"He'll probably live longer than you and never fade away \ he'll never fade away, he'll never fade away, he knows his fat",flip,increase,False,True,16691.5198,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T00:49:18.337000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","OMB Vought says over 10,000 will be fired. +https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/federal-layoffs-russell-vought-government-s",decrease,increase,False,True,13298.4919,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,increase,False,True,1237.1156,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,increase,False,True,10790.8908,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T19:29:13.443000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,we do need a documentary on this especially if it resolves No because of OPM being lazy/slow,hold,hold,True,True,108.8973,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T04:01:08.781000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Yes. +If + you can do this multiple times. If you can only do this once, no, it's not the world's best investment. +Be",increase,increase,True,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T14:52:37.121000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It’s two questions: 1. Will he be the nominee? (Unlikely.) 2. If nominated, will he win? (Impossible. The electorate wil",flip,flip,True,True,852.7213,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:19:30.485000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I think Donald Trump Jr has a better chance than the former guy. Which is sad on many levels.,hold,flip,False,True,512.0192,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False,True,64.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:14:10.959000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Confirmed that Trump is posting bond with a commercial bail bondsman. No special treatment.,increase,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-27T08:30:17.572000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,More importantly it's one where they're actually likely to be different. Neither party is going to do anything major on ,hold,hold,True,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True,True,5252.1603,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-02T19:18:48.563000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"1. not need to put up collateral. +2. Clearly they are willing to bet at these dummy odds",decrease,hold,False,True,64346.2573,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T04:05:11.228000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"OPM won’t announce anything, Trump made a deal, a huge deal, the biggest deal, why would they want to make it look like ",hold,flip,False,True,15062.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T14:55:43.163000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","views are aligned with the recent rally in the Biden market. +Also, to complain about Biden age in 2020 and put Trump in",flip,hold,False,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:53:56.101000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Even if what youre saying is true, would these elites' purpose be better served by arresting him rather than not arresti",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-03T12:57:14.007000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I love that look for you. Keep being who you are so everyone can see it.,flip,hold,False,True,5993.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-11T15:54:38.231000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Plenty of young people would prefer trump on +all + of those issues. The young skew progressive, but if you think they'",decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-16T15:48:49.452000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,It seems most likely that Joe Biden will the 2024 US elections as a recent YouGov poll has revealed that 45 percent of r,hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-14T19:56:40.776000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I know, I was just joking about the recent event where he joked that he was back in.",hold,hold,True,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-14T04:25:19.368000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It's a close second, but Biden has the upper hand. If I can use Descriptive Statistics or Probability Analysis, I need t",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False,True,975.9313,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T17:12:31.516000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",It makes much more sense to hedge with real money than fake money. I wonder how much of the discrepancy that explains.,decrease,hold,False,True,65705.7614,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T08:19:01.782000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,So that’s a completely different point than the market rationality point you were trying to make earlier. You’re confuse,increase,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:24:22.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","you still need to come up with a name, if not Trump. RDS is a uncharismatic pos and tbh, if they move away from Trump, I",flip,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-16T18:13:34.770000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,What's your credence? Where would you bet big at this point?,flip,flip,True,True,19790.0161,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-22T13:16:22.050000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","How many employees is that? It’s surprisingly hard to find numbers (granted, I’m lazy).",decrease,hold,False,True,28620.834,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-04T00:07:01.429000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,100% - the last few days my email has been a steady stream of rubbish from him.,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-08T02:37:46.875000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","ok, the +second + funniest way for this market to resolve would be if the government shuts down and BLS doesn't update ",increase,hold,False,True,9995.6368,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T18:21:07.611000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I don't agree with that. It's also possible that +1) Manifold will find better ways of moderating comment sections +2) ",increase,flip,False,True,2390.2194,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True,True,10688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-09-19T19:59:59.356000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",or maybe someone with inside info :),increase,flip,False,True,7166.7569,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-10T01:48:51.745000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"26% seems so undervalued this far away from the election, especially given +all the ways an incumbent party can cling o",flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:48:20.768000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,THE DIPS ARE SIMPLY MARKET MANIPULATION,flip,hold,False,True,10353.6204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T05:58:45.661000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Market creators have wide leeway to run their comment sections as they would like when it comes to hiding low quality co,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-24T22:28:37.464000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Nate Silver is pretty overrated. Its too dependent on weights of polls that have awful records when Trump is on the bal,hold,decrease,False,True,2525.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-23T22:33:00.479000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I don't know what what 🐈🐈🐈🐈 means but the actual odds are closer to 23%,decrease,flip,False,True,14601.7041,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2022-12-25T05:26:09.839000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",I can tell a lot of them want to ditch Trump. So you'll see a lot of noise over the next year while they test if they st,flip,hold,False,True,14.2484,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:59:31.364000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I second this, for congress to ""pass the bill"" it doesn't need the bill to be ""enacted"". However, I do think the + mea",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T22:39:31.724000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2024/08/teleworking-feds-are-spending-60-their-time-working-person-omb-says/398779/ +h",increase,increase,True,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-12T03:46:19.213000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"As of October 4th, the current president of the United States has a slight lead over Trump. 49 percent of registered vot",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T05:04:44.766000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I'm not convinced that the government shutdown is in the news cycle right now. The only places I'm hearing about it righ,decrease,decrease,True,True,37.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True,True,141.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-21T18:20:46.899000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,JOE WHY DIDN'T YOU INFORM ME WTF,hold,flip,False,True,666.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:04:24.059000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Matt is supposed to be smart? Lol. But while Biden is having seances with Francois Mitterand, the rest of us wonder how ",increase,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:41:06.412000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,i forgot to turn on slippage 💔😭,flip,decrease,False,True,8853.6204,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-22T18:35:45.235000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Any non-release will be greeted with inference that he is getting favoritism. He might very well get it, but it would be",increase,flip,False,True,737.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T20:58:33.705000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"as someone who rides the dc metro everyday i suggest you place yes trades +:)",flip,increase,False,True,4600.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-24T21:47:54.034000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,That is the wrong way to think about this market. How many universes are there in which NC goes red and another Solid R,hold,increase,False,True,2525.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:46:23.940000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I agree, such clarifications should be put in the +description +, not left buried in the comments.",decrease,hold,False,True,13.8144,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:28:49.041000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"On the other hand, a comment section works >90% of the time and imprecise question-askers will get less activity over ti",hold,hold,True,True,59.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-12T20:16:27.090000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Approaching Trump rapidly in North Carolina, according to 538. Potential arbitrage opportunity:",hold,decrease,False,True,4606.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,1088.7634,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T23:00:05.202000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""said he likely +will be arraigned next week +. The indictment has been filed under seal and will be announced in the c",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-03T20:56:44.880000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,His campaign has pushed back against a New York Times report which said Biden had told a close ally his re-election effo,decrease,increase,False,True,150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-02T13:55:57.730000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","huh you might be right, i was under the vague impression that if you were liable for taxes on gains you could claim dedu",flip,hold,False,True,3253.1493,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False,True,2983.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:32:38.759000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trump is up 31% in the primary polling average and has 52% vote share. He has only gained since indictment news. Even if,increase,increase,True,True,81.1913,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:18:29.737000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It definitely matters whether the economy is strong or weak in terms of fundamentals. And I think it is weak, as do most",flip,decrease,False,True,3702.7307,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T22:16:39.482000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,"description says, “An organization that only +endorses candidates + from other existing parties will +not + be conside",flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True,True,5.4799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,758.7898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-15T07:25:59.058000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It’s stuck in the Senate Commerce Committee. Chair Cantwell is known for slowing bills down (such as the Chips Act in 20,hold,decrease,False,True,262.3499,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:22:08.962000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I'm now at 70% odds that you are against covid vaccines. Really? It's not personal. It's about science and a lot of peo,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T02:48:25.199000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Uh that was my take the entire time, and you'd know if you were paying attention. Which is why I said the point is rathe",decrease,hold,False,True,611.1574,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:59:54.700000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Like I said, that’s politics. There isn’t really a pro-Trump Deep State but there is a huge network of billionaires who ",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T15:12:28.661000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"can you please clarify ASAP if ""voluntary surrender"" counts as arrest here or not?",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True,True,1178.4585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False,True,4456.8333,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-26T21:40:56.092000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's polling down right now. Also, his approval seems stuck at 38%, and likely will not recover anytime soon (as Isra",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-20T21:39:03.713000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Current polling puts the odds of this at <1%. This market seems very overvalued. +https://338canada.com/federal.htm",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T00:26:16.787000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,my true beliefs are liquidity provision between 35% and 41%,decrease,hold,False,True,15988.4918,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:00:33.359000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I'm neither a lawyer nor a fan of Mr Trump - I just think it's unlikely that prosecutors will go for him unless it's a r,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T06:42:42.393000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,In that sense Manifold also has fees,increase,hold,False,True,18516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T04:19:25.201000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Dudes only want one thing and it’s Trump arrested,increase,increase,True,True,2500.5277,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T01:05:16.863000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,DC will be sold to Russia and the proceeds will go to student loan forgiveness,increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-12T21:23:45.484000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah but re: point 1 there, he's broken too many promises and displayed way too much open hostility towards everyone und",increase,decrease,False,True,500.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-15T00:31:14.670000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Peter Njeim is an angry individual who claims false things in the comments and makes false assertions about me without e,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-16T19:39:04.829000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,The chances that Harris flips a state while losing NC is negligible. This should mirror the NC market,increase,hold,False,True,1825.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:28:32.383000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but the sheriff said three weeks ago that the SOP was to get mugshots and he expected everyone to have them… now w",hold,increase,False,True,797.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True,True,415.8683,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-01T19:34:21.454000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,We don't actually know the content of the classified documents Trump has. If it has been chosen because it is embarrassi,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T16:24:39.014000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","AFAIK, yes. this is the article I saw yesterday (so before the numbers were released): +https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/06/",flip,decrease,False,True,11538.9979,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T22:53:12.543000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Whooo very glad I sold at 7%. >2300 profit betting no. +New question... Will these numbers end up being revised? I don't",hold,flip,False,True,17.1875,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T03:04:32.994000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Did they release numbers for if he doesn't get convicted?,increase,hold,False,True,186.1486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:50:09.044000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Thanks for the link. CNN + NBC seems sufficient to resolve.,increase,hold,False,True,8688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-14T17:46:19.283000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Biden admin does seem on board though +https://www.wsj.com/tech/how-tiktok-was-blindsided-by-a-u-s-bill-that-could-ban-",flip,increase,False,True,297.3272,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:23:22.305000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I've stayed on topic this entire time, you seem to have a fetish for asking, in what appears to be a genuine manner, if ",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-12T14:15:31.111000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I totally agree. The poll aggregate for North Carolina is well outside of the margin of error.,increase,hold,False,True,2500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..36b135a59953e4f2ddf8db9833a895516c3d0544 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,310 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T05:22:40.699000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Was it fixed as in “did the MSM, the Deep State and the Liberal Elite gang up on Trump and use everything in their power",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:41:55.824000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves,flip,hold,False,True,7501.3996,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-17T03:30:47.868000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/technology/tiktok-ban-bill-senate.html + there's a chance this bill passes, but i can",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:54:22.420000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"what insults? Saying verifiably true things about your behavior isn't an insult, and you trying to brush it off as one m",increase,hold,False,True,18968.2095,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T19:08:16.740000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:,increase,hold,False,True,9801.0425,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-28T07:59:31.297000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,they might be? Might be money to be made there.,decrease,flip,False,True,6720.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-25T00:26:51.856000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information ,hold,hold,True,True,59.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-04T19:46:14.499000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I worked at two different companies before and during that spike in ocean freight and saw the same thing at both. Normal,increase,hold,False,True,610.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T12:07:09.812000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also in general they have insane odds for lots of the Democratic candidates, like saying that there’s a 7.5% chance that",flip,increase,False,True,1498.8179,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-05T05:48:36.214000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",There will be congressional bills this year and I expect at least one to address staffing and agencies and some privatiz,decrease,increase,False,True,4250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-21T20:08:09.911000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"This is normal for an incumbent, as Trump outraised Biden by more at this point in the 2020 cycle. +What has shifted the",flip,hold,False,True,999.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:21:21.704000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Made this free-response market!,hold,hold,True,True,0.0598,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T22:34:54.617000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Exemptions are usually only for those cooperating as a witness to other crimes. +Exemption 1: No +Exemption 2: No +Exemp",increase,flip,False,True,965.4652,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-09T00:56:55.269000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Likely halving the staff at NIH (18K), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (12K), NSF (2K). This would mean ",decrease,increase,False,True,5250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:50:09.044000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Thanks for the link. CNN + NBC seems sufficient to resolve.,increase,hold,False,True,8688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T18:01:55.260000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says ",hold,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-31T03:02:32.268000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"how come your description points to +https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status",hold,hold,True,True,1619.436,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:15:49.773000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,my advice is to take the free 2x while u still can,flip,increase,False,True,7375.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-05T23:47:54.170000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","President Trump required that “Agency Heads shall promptly undertake preparations to +initiate large-scale reductions in",decrease,increase,False,True,9687.182,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:35:38.716000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Literally does not matter. Only the economy matters.,decrease,hold,False,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T14:07:15.795000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Show me the part of the constitution that protects against negative publicity.,decrease,flip,False,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:47:20.038000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Hm maybe FRED is net and the other numbers are gross? Obviously all sorts of orgs are cutting positions all time. And I ,flip,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:53:48.850000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Keep the insults coming. I'm from Canada and have been following Canadian politics for 35+ years and speak English and F,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-16T20:45:06.112000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"Yeah, if the senate passes a version of the House Bill then this would resolve Yes. +I am starting to think they might n",flip,decrease,False,True,3289.0943,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:10:24.502000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I appreciate the kind words, the respect and admiration is definitely mutual. Are you on Discord?",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-03T21:41:17.081000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"the 20% is too high and the 75% too low since I used the bid side of the book, still a real possibility.",decrease,decrease,True,True,410.8713,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-13T18:58:20.129000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","free money to vote no, especially if you consider the new ICE hires. Not even mentioning their ugly breakup and the TACO",flip,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-25T07:57:37.381000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think the percentages have gotten closer since I posted the comment.,hold,decrease,False,True,1088.7634,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T22:36:51.999000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,forecasts take into account future change in policy. Matt saying there needs to be a change in policy because present da,hold,hold,True,True,310.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T19:16:40.367000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",The presidential election is not a fair fight when there is an incumbent. Trump had a HUGE advantage and he lost convinc,decrease,increase,False,True,6033.8207,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:14:42.997000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"Why can't you separate the unpopularity of Trudeau from the popularity of the Conservatives? You said it's ""pretty simpl",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T20:45:25.225000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"if you're telling me that this isn't an arrest in new york, but it is an arrest in the federal courts, then that is a co",hold,hold,True,True,415.8683,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:20:10.294000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Look at my position in the recession market, lol.",flip,hold,False,True,3702.7307,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-20T12:01:07.793000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","“Will Biden resign” was at absurdly high numbers like a week before he did IIRC. This is a thin market, a couple of whal",hold,decrease,False,True,27996.2742,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-30T19:16:59.918000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I definitely recall you winning the argument with me on the Tesla Semi market and me conceding your superior knowledge, ",flip,increase,False,True,2380.5311,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-13T01:05:16.863000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,DC will be sold to Russia and the proceeds will go to student loan forgiveness,increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-22T06:27:07.791000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,I was 20 when I first learned that some people thought the word retard was offensive. I couldn't really believe it tbh. ,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:36:20.039000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m ",flip,hold,False,True,2983.4978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:10:16.387000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,betting on a technical shutdown at this point...,increase,hold,False,True,500.597,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-03T02:30:10.982000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare ru,decrease,hold,False,True,350.9726,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:26.022000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Check out what happens with polling when 5-10 federal political party leaders quit and get back to me.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-06T20:16:41.579000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Just to confirm... if it is a liberal and ndp coalition then this will resolve yes?,increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-19T01:02:16.086000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,but still buying yes because arbitrage generally wins against personal oppinion,hold,increase,False,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T14:26:32.153000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",people can bet on the data as they’d like but keep in mind that tbe survey period doesn’t cover much of the major recent,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:07:25.036000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",You are making my point for me. The numbers you reference fail to account for how much he should have won by if he had m,decrease,flip,False,True,8345.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-17T18:12:06.876000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,She’s the type of person to tell you how she prepares the food that you prepared for her and say “oh honey we gotta get ,increase,hold,False,True,5672.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T19:59:27.595000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","paradoxically I think it’s better evidence earlier in the process, because it’s only later that falling short of your ta",decrease,hold,False,True,22478.6138,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T01:08:59.201000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,what the hell do you even mean with 'wokeism'? Like can you define it?,flip,hold,False,True,1494.5198,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:20:50.152000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",happy to continue this on discord where the latency issues aren’t such a drag.,decrease,hold,False,True,8445.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-06T00:48:54.477000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Go back to kindergarten lil bro. If there is a coin that is heads 8 times out of 10, but idiot will sell you heads for e",increase,increase,True,True,700.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:18:38.451000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Biden has already/always had a stutter Trumphas no excuse for foolish +claims and statements.",hold,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:25:06.916000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"I apologize for the support racism comment (though both the Conservatives and Liberals are very racist as parties). +I",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-03-31T08:36:45.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","i guess polls are king. he could eat people, but if his base likes him there's nothing anyone can do.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-10T03:56:50.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,can you name another time in history where ~half of a party's Senate caucus was totally noncommittal about their incumbe,hold,increase,False,True,103279.7519,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:41:49.043000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Look up mugshawtys on twitter tell you all you need to know,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T06:32:13.884000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"I don't think he was surprised, I think he was attacking the other person for not understanding that it was tongue-in-ch",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:32:41.470000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I'm betting yes because the senate can't modify bills, ~congress~ the house has to; and ~congress~ the house isn't sched",increase,hold,False,True,585.5058,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-05-29T04:07:31.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden is completely responsible for the border and migrant crisis. Trying to blame Trump is just crass.,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T22:30:08.383000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://www.axios.com/2025/01/28/trump-federal-workers-quit-severance +Damn, I think I might have been wrong on this. It",increase,flip,False,True,48077.7438,FLIP,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-18T01:01:56.888000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,the shape of this market is bizarre,decrease,hold,False,True,1500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T20:53:56.101000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Even if what youre saying is true, would these elites' purpose be better served by arresting him rather than not arresti",increase,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-24T12:06:01.905000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"great, the man knows how to win an election from a basement",decrease,flip,False,True,185.7076,FLIP,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T19:15:00.514000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,It really depends on if/how younger folks assign blame in this scenario. While congressional Democrats were marginally m,decrease,decrease,True,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T15:10:28.986000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"i think he's very clear here: he's not citing election betting odds, he's citing the general sense of complacency among ",increase,decrease,False,True,27488.8375,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:32:05.707000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,i am suspicious and turning it off,increase,decrease,False,True,6660.7033,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T03:01:59.998000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's approval ratings aren't great, but neither were Trump's. +I don't think this race is going to be a guaranteed vi",increase,hold,False,True,323.0986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-01-14T17:24:41.046000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,16% on electionbettingodds.com,increase,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T12:34:21.792000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","It means spotting when people's political beliefs are clouding their judgment. For example causing them to bet that +An",increase,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T18:34:59.882000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as ""Have you ever been under arrest?",increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-03-14T23:03:33.137000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Polls are hogwash! (this belief is my fiduciary responsibility),hold,decrease,False,True,188165.7823,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T15:41:31.287000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",I verified with searches. Biden hired 1200 DEI staffers in the last weeks of his administration in order to force a trum,decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-06T10:17:05.246000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm really struggling to make a number that low ""add up"". 80% odds of Biden nom (Dem primaries are basically non-competi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:40:30.507000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or somethi,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-07-03T17:04:44.649000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Participating in the debate is the only way for him to talk about something other than his ongoing criminal trials. By s,decrease,flip,False,True,13948.8726,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T09:07:41.026000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There's the opposite of fees, many markets have rewards for liquidity providers",increase,hold,False,True,25516.0817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T17:55:26.653000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Kind of odd to me that this market is bullish on Harris's chances, while the individual state markets remain bearish. Pl",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-21T19:02:41.897000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,betting on some twists from the Supreme Court. Yes for Biden.,flip,increase,False,True,99.0701,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T16:33:12.072000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if you believe that report, it should be an incredibly bear-ish sign for this market. In a time period the report says t",flip,decrease,False,True,54117.0545,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-22T03:59:39.332000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"To be honest, I don't think the polls are going to get a whole lot better for the Liberals as the election draws nearer.",decrease,decrease,True,True,123.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-12T10:31:08.902000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"it's not just Biden VS Trump- there may be 3,4,5,6 candidates on the ballot... Trump could very well win with 42% of the",decrease,hold,False,True,2000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:13:51.735000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I think in the case of Iran it's easier to seperate the people from the goverment, since it's well known the regime is u",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T17:57:32.818000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"I think if there’s really the votes for it, they’ll make it happen (~65%).",increase,increase,True,True,937.322,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-07T22:56:38.157000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I'm not sure if it directly relates here, but I do think its interesting and should probably be more well known that ~10",hold,hold,True,True,87013.1764,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T16:03:56.497000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"This website + from +NYcourts.gov + defines an arrest as ""When the police takes a person into custody on probable cause",hold,hold,True,True,141.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-16T13:34:52.170000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Equally compelling arguments that suppressing it is a violation of the public’s right to information about the candidate,decrease,increase,False,True,160.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-03T19:14:18.706000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Arguably, the indictments make it more likely that Trump stops running for president and Biden faces a more popular oppo",flip,flip,True,True,10.0084,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-05-09T00:50:45.959000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"If you were wrong, how would you know?",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-29T23:44:45.430000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","yeah i finder it harder to say in general, a lot of these kalshi markets have like 5c spreads with $10 on each side. one",flip,hold,False,True,3766.8119,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-08T23:34:25.166000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,House approves 3-year Affordable Care Act tax credit extension as lawmakers eye compromise in Senate,flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-13T16:14:55.727000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Woooah guys you know congress includes the senate right?,flip,hold,False,True,975.9313,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-13T22:04:50.335000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing mor",hold,decrease,False,True,2525.6016,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T22:22:01.632000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭,decrease,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-15T05:18:55.319000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,You're missing the fact that you shouldn't listen to the real money markets (you shouldn't necessarily listen to Manifol,decrease,increase,False,True,161.2357,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T17:32:38.514000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find,flip,hold,False,True,580.3465,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-09T12:57:35.522000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Conditional on Harris getting elected, will Iran obtain Nuclear weapons: +https://manifold.markets/nic_kup/iran-obtains",decrease,hold,False,True,3159.8237,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-12-20T17:13:05.267000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There are several of these election winner markets, and often, the probabilities are off by a few percentage points, whi",hold,hold,True,True,1178.4585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T21:48:00.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"""The Liberals"" is a shorthand for the Liberal Party of Canada. The fact you transparently admit you're playing semantic ",increase,flip,False,True,18968.2095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-04T17:37:17.461000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","-privatization of USPS would require an act of congress +-do you think it's realistic that the admin is going to wholesa",flip,decrease,False,True,5000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-06T01:31:38.962000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","This is trading substantially below Kalshi, fyi: +https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-",decrease,hold,False,True,21440.2194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-17T15:55:54.763000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","FWIW, it appears that USAJOBS is still up... +https://www.usajobs.gov/search/results/?l=Washington,%20District%20of%20C",decrease,hold,False,True,225.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T15:33:50.212000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,It wouldn't be that surprising IMO. The sheriff said he would take a mugshot as per SOP unless someone told him otherwis,increase,decrease,False,True,5241.1364,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-04-24T17:40:22.083000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Looking at the electoral college votes and popular vote percentages, Biden only won in 2020 by +very + slightly more th",decrease,hold,False,True,672.2392,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:19:38.062000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custo",flip,increase,False,True,1237.1156,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T21:05:23.575000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Turns out they are not, see directly below by +: ""Apparently some lawyers are able to keep a formal arrest from taking ",hold,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-12T18:50:18.626000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,hahaha biden will win big time,hold,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:27:26.834000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,indeed I wonder what lies on his future,hold,hold,True,True,3.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-08-07T21:58:05.441000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So, I'm not saying that it's actually going to happen, but if there is an attempt at an inter-decennial census between n",decrease,hold,False,True,149.1602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-22T21:07:46.288000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't g,flip,hold,False,True,4456.8333,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-01-03T14:22:35.100000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,Resolution if the process of ban/change is initiated by EOY (e.g. a law is passed) but not yet executed/due?,flip,hold,False,True,323.1628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-04T00:07:01.429000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,100% - the last few days my email has been a steady stream of rubbish from him.,increase,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-08T02:04:09.868000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"It’s trumps America, we are all just living in it. Crazy",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-14T23:43:30.656000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",sorry axis on second chart should be thousands not millions,increase,hold,False,True,1417.959,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-12T22:55:10.906000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,I believe discharge petitions only apply to the House.,increase,hold,False,True,5747.0952,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:51:25.065000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","imagine if Hunter Biden relapses or overdoses. Or commits suicide. The guy saw his mother, sister and brother all die wh",decrease,flip,False,True,8445.8908,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-26T06:04:44.364000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,I don't like this poll because there are two options to vote against Republicans and only one option for democrats.,decrease,hold,False,True,2100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T19:56:59.336000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I think it has more to do with potential. If this is unscripted Joe Biden now this is most likely going to be unscripted,increase,decrease,False,True,3677.8751,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T06:43:41.991000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So assuming you believe what you say: what, is 4:1 over 12 months not above your opportunity cost?",increase,increase,True,True,47318.7438,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-11T05:17:44.562000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"she could flip NC by 1.1%, lose PA + AZ + NV and still lose anyway?",decrease,decrease,True,True,818.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-04-22T20:58:03.634000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"And this... Is... to go... even further beyond trans! +AAAAAAAAAAH!!!",decrease,increase,False,True,758.7898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-08T16:09:37.942000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",are you saying Tate fans are well distributed in the right/left spectrum ?,increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-24T23:45:52.813000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"""Another complication for Democrats is that Republicans passed a one-time infusion of $170 billion for immigration enfor",flip,decrease,False,True,108.2427,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T14:40:18.741000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Do people think Trump is unique among the defendant here? Or are several others going to get the same no-mugshot treatme,decrease,flip,False,True,935.5724,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:45:14.814000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""it's about drama. actually arresting him risks creating some serious blowback."" +Serious blowback is distracting drama,",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-11-10T01:41:26.456000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"> ""The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today"" +The date of the next general wil",flip,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T04:27:04.503000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I appreciate when people announce that their bets are irrational,increase,hold,False,True,103.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-18T17:01:22.589000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Questions: +Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?",decrease,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-05T05:04:27.877000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The 2016 election may have shown otherwise,hold,flip,False,True,9.5181,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-30T15:02:15.657000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"yeah the Ben Shapiro position is actually insane. ""Yeah he tried to say fuck the Constitution and stage a coup, but it d",flip,flip,True,True,3794.5198,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-28T15:25:24.868000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Any NO limits you guys want to put up, my mana is burning my pockets.",flip,increase,False,True,425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-23T14:33:34.658000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Bad news for the campaign contributions case? +https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-",hold,decrease,False,True,33.8459,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-17T23:40:04.946000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I just saw on CNN an NYPD detective say Trump cannot avoid being arrested in NYC if charged as expected. There is no pro,flip,increase,False,True,9744.9831,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-16T00:49:18.337000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","OMB Vought says over 10,000 will be fired. +https://www.axios.com/2025/10/15/federal-layoffs-russell-vought-government-s",decrease,increase,False,True,13298.4919,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-31T15:28:49.584000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lol why is this being boosted? I think people already know about this question!,flip,hold,False,True,45395.1788,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-12T23:47:17.390000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"I realize that I didn't understand the process. Apparently, if he surrenders, he won't be arrested. But if, for example,",decrease,hold,False,True,1890.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-05T20:37:39.555000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,took my yes profit and bought a tiny NO because I think Musk has a good chance of just making an org and calling it “the,flip,hold,False,True,4.9501,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-28T03:33:34.493000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Forrest taylor asked me for links. I politely provided him answers. +If you cannot handle me providing answers to someo",decrease,flip,False,True,1650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-10-23T06:23:16.901000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"If the prime minister/cabinet are NDP, that would be a NO",decrease,hold,False,True,0.9994,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-05T08:22:35.083000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Polymarket skims off the top of bets. Judging by this image (which I just screencapped off a random market), it looks li",increase,hold,False,True,25678.9985,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-30T14:55:23.833000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"Maybe there's not a deal after all? +https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5714316-senate-government-funding-shutdown/amp",decrease,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-01-27T23:21:53.712000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","https://ourpublicservice.org/blog/recent-trends-in-quits-and-retirements-in-the-federal-workforce/ +Over the past five f",decrease,increase,False,True,1650.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:32:57.198000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"No I don't. +The statute says, ""following arrest, or arraignment upon the accusatory instrument..."" +I think arrest and",hold,flip,False,True,415.8683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:52:00.703000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that's a good problem to have ggs,hold,hold,True,True,10443.4352,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-02-08T16:40:33.334000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,People feel Trump is such a bad candidate that it should be a slam dunk. It being 50/50 is terrible odds considering peo,increase,flip,False,True,5012.1905,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:54:21.525000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah I agree it might be the right one, but why resolve in a hurry?",hold,hold,True,True,5.4799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:32:29.339000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"@PeterNjeim +The whole point of the arbitrage is that there's no belief necessary, only profit. +I guess if I were to tr",increase,hold,False,True,582.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-06-07T14:58:13.750000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,This is just some random account,flip,hold,False,True,5073.2813,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-04-02T21:21:52.382000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"But you see the disjunction, right? The NY statute clearly understands a surrender as an alternative to an ""arrest"", not",decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-13T15:13:02.900000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Sure but his advisors should at least tell him to be in WI/MI/PA rather than NY/NJ.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-16T21:26:48.328000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","smh, didn't realize there was a Kalshi question linked to this 📉",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-14T12:23:43.363000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","According to reddit, a confirmed list of agencies with layoffs to probationary employees: +Consumer Financial Protection",flip,increase,False,True,124.3502,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-20T03:54:35.931000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","So far this week +6700 IRS to be laid off Feb 10 +~10000 USAID +Thousands from HHS +2000 Dept of Energy +Dept of Agricul",decrease,increase,False,True,6751.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-08T17:38:34.204000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"There was a call for resignation from a Democrat congressman, don't remember who. You seriously think Biden will be okay",hold,decrease,False,True,1920.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-25T17:29:51.507000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Just a reminder that you guys tried to milk this last time and it didn't work. It may be time to look for new strategies,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:09:14.417000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I'm considering making some markets that are like ""Will Trump be the Republican nominee? NO MANIPULATION VARIANT - By pa",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T03:08:01.721000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Is ""booked"" a synonym for indicted?",hold,hold,True,True,1095.8342,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T03:28:19.864000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I'm not sure it will move the needle that much, but Trump started off ahead in polling before the debate, and Biden need",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T05:58:53.923000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Ah, but the problem here is that you don't actually care about that unless you average out over all possibilities. +The ",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-18T01:19:28.306000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"I've made two markets to gauge support for the bill in the Senate, each asking which of the 100 senators will vote for i",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T19:53:13.473000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, this is a less likely case, but if at resolution time Manifold favors candidate X and other prediction markets fav",flip,hold,False,True,876.35,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:13:05.586000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"look at swing state polls + the ""fundamentals"" tremendously favor Biden, lol. When people say ""fundamentals"" w.r.t. pre",decrease,increase,False,True,1897.7998,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T00:57:49.948000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-06T17:38:37.592000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",and yes i don't see much difference between this comment section and those of the popular markets during the election it,flip,hold,False,True,11538.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-07-06T03:10:08.022000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Also: vote Taylor Swift! +https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of +Will she win before",increase,hold,False,True,5000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-26T19:33:06.292000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I do think Biden is going to win, but I'm not as confident in it as you are. Are you thinking his polling turns around, ",flip,decrease,False,True,45395.1788,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:36:58.257000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Trumps lead is much more about nobody with stardust as alternative. Let’s see how the trials age Trump. Now that it’s hi,decrease,decrease,True,True,8345.8908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-23T16:51:08.695000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yeah, but I would have expected non-US arbitrage to make them converge.",hold,hold,True,True,65.7603,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:46:46.047000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"literally what did anything I say have to do with kool-aid, talking facts you can talk Vibes all you want to what's your",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-05T22:26:17.875000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","True. Well, it's pretty unlikely for Polymarket to die in the next year: +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-polym",hold,hold,True,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-08-09T18:16:45.048000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,why was this ever trading below 25%?,flip,increase,False,True,12767.0158,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2024-11-15T04:27:48.650000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",The big spikes followed by drops are probably from the census every ten years. It's not as volatile as it might seem.,decrease,hold,False,True,350.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T19:17:35.183000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,seriously someone explain to me how this shutdown doesn't happen? like at this point the only realistic path is a comple,increase,increase,True,True,106067.4686,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:41:45.425000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",why would he be removed from ballot in Blue states? Who would do that?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-01-31T18:27:26.914000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the ques",flip,decrease,False,True,896.6667,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-08T18:02:02.737000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would t",decrease,hold,False,True,21745.1679,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-22T01:10:20.016000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"The only new news is +https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/politics/fulton-county-da-office-negotiations-trump/index.html + b",increase,hold,False,True,9359.7626,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-01T22:12:42.014000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why would Missouri be any more likely than Florida or Texas, let alone North Carolina?",increase,decrease,False,True,277.7778,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T19:09:05.585000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"again, that's a ""technical term"" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.",increase,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-01-13T14:56:41.560000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Who is better for the stock market, Trump or Biden?",hold,hold,True,True,262.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-12T18:27:53.823000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"I already placed a bet, thank you very much",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-04-07T12:24:19.182000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Not wise to take the resignation deal in the economy we’re about to see.,increase,decrease,False,True,6560.0235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T21:53:10.156000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","I find + a great forecaster and I admire him a ton, but he clearly missing the story here, possibly because he's poli",flip,increase,False,True,220.8393,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-23T04:10:59.078000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","yeah, I understand that conceptually, you can go to Iowa and perhaps see a big surprise there. The caucus process makes ",flip,hold,False,True,240.8393,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T16:43:58.619000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","don't worry, didn't feel attacked. You explained quite clearly",flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-07T02:03:26+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Neither. Do you want to address +the very next sentence + where I describe how the two points are one and the same? Or ",hold,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-17T08:19:05.410000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also, Ted Cruz could step in any time and would probably beat the crap out of Biden and the other Republicans in the pri",decrease,increase,False,True,10790.8908,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-18T23:37:34.371000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as,flip,hold,False,True,8905.0536,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T03:46:49.225000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,that’s not how politics works. A shutdown is a win for the Democrats no matter if it actually is effective or not. The G,decrease,flip,False,True,2300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-10-30T18:34:23.241000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Chat GPT to sway the predictions coming in strong.,increase,increase,True,True,17598.5551,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:39:41.462000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Yea any photo without Sheriff symbol is ""arrest photo"" vs with is ""Official Mugshot""",hold,hold,True,True,5965.4652,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T22:00:44.034000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"love how these markets always frustratingly trade at some 6-7% premium from Polymarket for no apparent reason, since the",decrease,hold,False,True,20274.3185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T04:40:47.100000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Lots of pieces of infrastructure can be routed around without too much efficiency cost if they're arbitrarily banned. Bu,hold,hold,True,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:12:27.975000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,I agree the Conservatives are popular. But it completely mixed up with people disliking Trudeau. You cannot separate th,hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-28T04:11:31.916000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I think a couple of them are Manifold users,increase,hold,False,True,81.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-24T16:35:57.150000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"tbh, I'm confused about how everyone is getting so triggered by a simple joke. Everyone in this thread needs to touch gr",flip,hold,False,True,64.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T17:05:20.239000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"""many times did you guys crow, ""they've got him now!"" only to be wrong again."" +Me? Literally never.",increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-02T17:36:45.560000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,blunders in Ukraine? Senile old man? You sound like you are a MAGAt.,flip,flip,True,True,5252.1603,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-24T23:33:58.579000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"""Donald Trump arrived in Atlanta on Thursday evening to get his mug shot taken +at a local jailhouse"" +https://www.reut",hold,increase,False,True,1160.9653,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-02T03:49:20.506000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,there are coalitions in three party systems,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T01:03:11.676000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,"Also, just a note, this market does resolve the same as polymarket. In the very unlikely event of any discrepancy, I wou",hold,hold,True,True,10688.6296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-04-18T23:18:15.953000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,"It brings it in line with real money markets, but not necessarily in a good way. One of things I like least about Predic",hold,decrease,False,True,400.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:09:43.898000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election +2011-2013 - Liberal party support ",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-13T01:18:12.888000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,I'm already exposed enough or I would have taken the other market's orders.,hold,hold,True,True,7188.4427,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-23T12:56:55.233000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","The two idiots in the white house thought they could pull this off and it was looking pretty bad +But then the the peop",decrease,flip,False,True,70.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-29T23:52:18.576000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,atleast im not the worst when it comes to rinsing,flip,hold,False,True,10353.6204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-11-07T22:54:20.954000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Have you heard of Donald Trump?,flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cI9O2UsgOQ,2025-07-07T19:47:39.805000+00:00,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,It could also be that the stock market was responding to how the OBBBA clawed back some EV car mandates. Less government,increase,hold,False,True,53.7471,HOLD,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:47:54.533000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Everything you just said is highly illogical. Arbitrage is profitable because it improves accuracy of the markets. It su,flip,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-28T02:30:22.311000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Biden needed a win and clearly won't get one. Trump didn't say anything stupid on abortion or J6.,flip,flip,True,True,2000.9883,FLIP,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2025-01-14T22:27:08.056000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,Income and educational inequality speaks for itself. As does the systemic genocide of First Nations.,hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-02-19T08:43:34.739000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","desantis is rising, trump falling. 50/50 now is likely to shift hugely to desantis in coming months.",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-25T00:56:45.122000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,I meant one might be an official mugshot the other not (a photo of the mugshot on a computer or the like),hold,hold,True,True,70.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-09-14T20:42:04.988000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,dude is a Fossil I'd be surprised if he lives through 2 terms.,hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-25T05:36:43.810000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"Why are you necroing a 2-day old thread. Poe's law doesn't recommend changing your actions, it's just a warning that som",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-04-29T20:43:38.767000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Just how fake and gay is the whole electoral process? +Okay, I was pretty sure you were just trolling before, but now yo",decrease,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2022-03-24T13:22:55.973000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Related markets https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/us-presidency-2024 +and https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-",flip,increase,False,True,1.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T13:43:34.240000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Well no primary candidate has been stuck in multiple courtrooms during the campaign before either. Also, if he is remove",decrease,decrease,True,True,13169.0371,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-02T00:01:59.199000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,Missouri is Trump +20 or so this year. Trump +15 is the floor.,hold,hold,True,True,2575.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-07T19:44:09.783000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","@Ziddletwix + will this be the data point you use as the “before” point for resolving this market? +I assume so? My plan",flip,hold,False,True,7988.9979,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-08-28T14:47:20.917000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",Do secretaries of state run party primaries elections?,flip,hold,False,True,1079.2106,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-02-15T14:25:52.939000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",All probationary and new hires of less than 2 years are getting kicked out. Already thousands from each of many major ag,decrease,increase,False,True,6201.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +ZPqP5AsMwEkbrj5kpXVT,2023-06-16T22:15:05.583000+00:00,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Also politics is the only thing I have any formal education in. My bias is with +Publius +.",decrease,hold,False,True,8345.8908,HOLD,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-03-23T22:19:30.831000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"but also, it you'd like to bet on the odds of a recession in 2024, I've put up some big limit orders here: +https://man",decrease,hold,False,True,1897.7998,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-01-03T23:31:52.265000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"okay last thing though jim jones made his followers drink poisoned Flavor-Aid, not Kool-Aid. Please stop besmirching the",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-09-05T03:08:16.604000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"When it's a prediction market like this, no longer than November 6th",increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +yZsEz8UdZS,2026-01-25T20:30:55.399000+00:00,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,"This tweet explains the near-term stress, but not the final outcome. Senate gridlock + DHS disputes happen almost every ",increase,decrease,False,True,910.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +WLtJDU9qKHasoi9iWvfa,2023-12-17T23:34:35.452000+00:00,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,"PS: It's 20% because if the gap gets too slim I'd have to sink hundreds in to get anything, and that's no good",increase,decrease,False,True,582.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5pVdnLOvZOEruDTDkQmF,2023-08-15T23:12:33.076000+00:00,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,Well this is refreshing to see a source sited in a comment section haha,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-19T02:19:09.389000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"New York state law for reference: +https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php +Following an arrest, or following the a",increase,hold,False,True,2987.42,HOLD,qwen3:32b +gofilbtkg1,2024-10-06T22:59:13.502000+00:00,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,"lol, someone getting afraid of Biden saying he's back in?",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-01T11:42:28.447000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 ",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX,2024-03-10T01:54:34.285000+00:00,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,That would explain why Trump is suddenly in favor of it!,decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-03-30T22:18:14.976000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,"Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.",hold,flip,False,True,610.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2024-06-26T21:40:56.092000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's polling down right now. Also, his approval seems stuck at 38%, and likely will not recover anytime soon (as Isra",flip,decrease,False,True,2000.9883,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +4amdGgZFKTxUMC3Fym6F,2023-03-22T21:38:20.826000+00:00,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Biden's age is high, +His mental state, a lie. +2024's out of reach, +His campaign in defeat.",hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2023-02-14T20:54:10.622000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,would you say Mr. Trump is a typical 76-year-old American man?,increase,hold,False,True,31.8724,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-12-11T08:28:15.956000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",Isn’t it weird that the gov employees report hasn’t been updated since October?,increase,flip,False,True,545.6412,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-10-28T09:50:41.373000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",how is it that clear Ben? It’s just a gov shut down.,flip,flip,True,True,314.4593,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-11-25T18:43:56.431000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?","if all is rational in the world, there’s at least 10% chance you’ll make a toooon of mana at year’s end, no need for the",increase,increase,True,True,280.1176,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llC0sSgzg8,2025-03-09T14:00:36.226000+00:00,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",wow. Are there sources for all these incredible claims?,decrease,decrease,True,True,41233.9753,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AiEh38dIYVV5tOs1RmN3,2022-12-28T09:11:09.394000+00:00,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,I imagine he's more likely to be indicted than to be arrested. Though I haven't looked into the matter much - after read,increase,decrease,False,True,324.3819,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..584b38b9da34de80b19445e9ad6756b6c47c0cf2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.35030151313451674,0.9845667939737667,0.6342652808392499,UP,0.9715057486282079,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.4276406035665296,0.01331139621868295,-0.4143292073478467,DOWN,0.7621772863703424,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,53,DOWN,qwen3:32b +2,0.4756242568370988,0.9976382444783147,0.522013987641216,UP,0.7063357056764447,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",40,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.37000000000000005,0.8304621778105344,0.4604621778105344,UP,0.871312272607146,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",15,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.47562425683709825,0.4427337960031835,-0.032890460833914725,DOWN,0.8136634261495289,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,15,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.2922841775283411,0.04770704853413239,-0.24457712899420875,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,8,DOWN,qwen3:32b +6,0.2053352846112541,0.9377079749941034,0.7323726903828494,UP,0.9895646062039558,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,25,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7,0.39313284165144313,0.5169797169710604,0.12384687531961724,UP,0.10364290162793412,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,14,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8,0.5999999999999999,0.9971770620281915,0.3971770620281916,UP,0.9979383940350744,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,14,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9,0.2779016180297256,0.9938732634353896,0.715971645405664,UP,0.9789623356126922,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,12,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5e7e7a0f5c24406160c5aed607aed090734b5d61 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/politics_us/qwen3_manifold_politics_us_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.3503015131345168,0.9691085613350574,0.6188070482005406,UP,0.9218893469151112,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,23,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1,0.37,0.7428716993461181,0.3728716993461181,UP,0.8608886565945685,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",5,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.4756242568370988,0.5197069852207936,0.044082728383694814,UP,0.7301536573279096,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +3,0.4756242568370988,0.2572409331221592,-0.21838332371493963,DOWN,0.886573373965187,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",16,DOWN,qwen3:32b +4,0.2779016180297256,0.2533125435168905,-0.024589074512835096,DOWN,0.7011058263780859,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.3503015131345167,0.640037400202483,0.2897358870679663,UP,0.4887264175060075,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.2779016180297256,0.7708574657152789,0.49295584768555334,UP,0.600836563811186,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,16,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.4756242568370984,0.7523360137476827,0.27671175691058425,UP,0.7666828579082744,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +8,0.2779016180297256,0.6910619481576509,0.4131603301279253,UP,0.11001871640723228,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9,0.20533528461125414,0.3437518479891259,0.13841656337787175,UP,0.9468015066845036,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,28,UP,qwen3:32b +10,0.42764060356652966,0.5128311043338475,0.08519050076731782,UP,0.07440799021402653,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,30,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.6,0.5485165794643093,-0.05148342053569066,DOWN,0.8772861588604302,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +12,0.37,0.7940386584760343,0.4240386584760343,UP,0.9278978951403041,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",5,UP,qwen3:32b +13,0.4756242568370988,0.31003546977044094,-0.16558878706665786,DOWN,0.939795691947001,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +14,0.4756242568370988,0.5156499948265884,0.04002573798948955,UP,0.3668865767772276,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?",25,DOWN,qwen3:32b +15,0.6,0.7109229136608696,0.1109229136608696,UP,0.9870414586277898,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +16,0.393132841651443,0.5248214682054312,0.13168862655398816,UP,0.5082863461096262,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,16,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +17,0.2053352846112541,0.374287023309775,0.16895173869852087,UP,0.9105889239347192,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +18,0.37,0.7145442348075073,0.3445442348075073,UP,0.9338969930708675,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",23,UP,qwen3:32b +19,0.6,0.4469956546256475,-0.15300434537435248,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +20,0.29228417752834107,0.4985695397261588,0.20628536219781773,UP,0.12367653501040063,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,12,UP,qwen3:32b +21,0.2922841775283411,0.06130523272934976,-0.23097894479899136,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +22,0.6,0.4688953846426996,-0.1311046153573004,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +23,0.2053352846112541,0.37522319309840046,0.16988790848714636,UP,0.5223584031486134,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +24,0.39313284165144297,0.4992751805965082,0.10614233894506525,UP,0.2505538492255735,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,7,DOWN,qwen3:32b +25,0.393132841651443,0.4412991813107545,0.0481663396593115,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Kamala Harris flip a state?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +26,0.6,0.9249168630174458,0.3249168630174458,UP,0.9542188186990227,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 1?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +27,0.42764060356652966,0.48184893096481485,0.05420832739828518,UP,0.6175118536203343,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,47,DOWN,qwen3:32b +28,0.3503015131345167,0.6033162256220637,0.253014712487547,UP,0.11811502534514591,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +29,0.20533528461125414,0.3963613495575508,0.19102606494629668,UP,0.8464730290456431,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,6,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +30,0.4276406035665296,0.16652989720463082,-0.2611107063618988,DOWN,0.6011164569081779,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,53,UP,qwen3:32b +31,0.2053352846112541,0.8841118672658261,0.678776582654572,UP,0.42905464042400937,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,26,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +32,0.20533528461125408,0.37167437545629295,0.16633909084503887,UP,0.9261297132640545,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +33,0.2053352846112541,0.7479323010268635,0.5425970164156093,UP,0.6163719074853174,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?,68,UP,qwen3:32b +34,0.37,0.507237120933455,0.13723712093345497,UP,0.9166666666666666,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?",2,DOWN,qwen3:32b +35,0.2779016180297256,0.19907688629112635,-0.07882473173859922,DOWN,0.06913745121075031,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +36,0.3503015131345166,0.5699094117466735,0.21960789861215696,UP,0.701299751501671,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?,31,UP,qwen3:32b +37,0.4756242568370983,0.29423806704788347,-0.18138618978921484,DOWN,0.38892664783683484,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,11,DOWN,qwen3:32b +38,0.4276406035665296,0.5595577162147617,0.13191711264823208,UP,0.4704080809694871,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,27,DOWN,qwen3:32b +39,0.4756242568370984,0.20457661087765205,-0.27104764595944636,DOWN,0.9998436605323578,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/commitment_validity_manifold_science.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/commitment_validity_manifold_science.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fae54b3578da56c60d4cd5c96aca2178da5c3c27 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/commitment_validity_manifold_science.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/science", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 46, + "n_wrong_bettors": 10, + "n_directional": 8, + "skip": "n_dir=8<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=37<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/did_manifold_science.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/did_manifold_science.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5b9aab87e54ec579441e0764e72c4dba6fda0a5a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/did_manifold_science.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/science", + "n_pre_directional": 12, + "n_post_directional": 37, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.5833, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5405, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.7027, + "did": -0.0428, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=0<10" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1136c00f5bebe52a0175dc0b677d81eb846fbd76 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:55:07.655000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, the API is shut down so I can no longer give status reports on how, and when people are investing in the market. B",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T23:26:02.046000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",what is your % that it was a lab leak?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T17:41:31.714000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I think accepting the first clarifications as part of the paradox is fine. I don't think they clarify the paradox in the,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:09:58.177000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Because the different dataset adds a lot of uncertainty. +Compare 2022 +2023 looking like an average of 16.46 +2022 had",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-26T21:56:20.560000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sorry for my slowness on some of the open questions here, and on recruiting a mathematician to adjudicate. + and I have",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-11-12T15:30:36.151000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with t,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:22:32.129000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I fined + M10k (for now, this may increase based on the number of alts they create) and banned them so that they won't ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T18:31:56.096000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","ok fair enough I agree that statement was exaggerated. However, it is still true that we know almost nothing about what ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T18:11:19.998000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"There's also the claim that ""it is well known that finite formal systems are stronger than algorithms."" I don't know qui",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T07:23:38.776000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"don't have the positions api any more so no longer grouping by maxoutcome, but just by bet outcomes so the updated repor",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-30T01:00:02.942000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Of course all parties can do what they like within whatever constraints there are in the contract. No obligation to me t,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T20:20:53.703000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Looks like + sold out and then other people bought in at a discount. +That news story is pretty funny once you know the",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:52:56.676000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,It was always very unlikely to fall in the summer months see my comment 3 months ago below.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T07:51:15.681000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"ah I had read it as requiring three people, you and someone else from YES and someone else from NO. +Conditional on @dre",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T09:13:39.940000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,To the new users who sadly have all their starting mana locked up in this market: you might be happy to hear that you ca,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T06:35:40.216000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I sold my shares here because I don't know when the market will resolve. + I vaguely remember that I suggested giving f",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:43:40.610000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","""The WIV was on a research proposals to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like coronaviruses the year before the pan",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-31T16:28:45.435000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sure, true if SIA is true, I answered both ways above.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-24T16:21:46.121000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I present to you: Altered Snake Eyes. +I posit No bettors would agree it is analogous to this question's convoluted mes",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:25:30.168000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I agree that that version was what I intended. Sounds like where I went wrong in my market description was to lead with ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:32:33.507000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If I were a nobody who had resolved P vs NP, I'd visit the nearest computer science department, and offer $100 and free ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:30.185000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm so glad I sold the majority of my position at 67% After getting burned off the F-35 market the other day, I don't th",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T21:05:48.328000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Zvi's hourly rate is $500 and judges say they spent about 150 hours on this. +Time to start a GoFundMe.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:36:56.190000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,What all these new accounts going to do with all the mana when this resolves to NO? 🤔,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:38:38.576000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here's the Altered Snake Eyes Paradox which should fit nicely to what you, +, had in mind. I suppose the Yes write-ups ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T10:00:17.957000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm just going to note here, impartially, that few people here seem to fully grasp the distinction to be drawn between """,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T17:42:50.719000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","of course high ratios exist, but when they are legit it is on trivial facts that no one needs a judged debate on. when d",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T13:36:23.549000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"As far as I understand, Kongo accepted (are you still doing this, + ?). If not, please discard everything else in this ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:18:07.277000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, that's a good high level summary. +It'll get into a lot more detail, of course -- the topic is complicated and the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-27T11:47:48.188000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"> log of 2 +Thanks! +> (2) Given that person n (call him Bob) flipped the coin, what are the chances he dies? +No, in th",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T17:17:29.236000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I added FAQ#8: +""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop"" has an implicit ""unless I",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T14:54:51.694000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,>Suppose another omniscient being Q' came to me and told me that he looked into the future and noticed that Q will roll ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:53:44.523000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks for your reply. I agree. My goal was to understand the problem better -- for me it helps. I also agree with you t,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T16:07:33.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It's hard to argue with ""I think [thing I said] had an implicit [x]"". +The ""can"" refers to ""cap it"". +Yes or no: Do you ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:22:44.664000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"No, it's valid to decide (and I came out in the black so my only real loss is time). +My feedback is that 'owner-of-the",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-12-14T23:46:04.282000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in ""NO"" for the hopes that the pe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:58:28.733000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would say that you absolutely +can + get a well-defined probability that the game lasts longer than N rounds, and tha",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T20:58:49.505000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Still preliminary but here's how our answers to these questions are shaping up: +Are we sure it's kosher to define a fin",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T00:57:15.304000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Death is rather extreme and why would organisers give away many billions of dollars, if it was really offered rather bei",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T22:03:43.526000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If we take a step back and look at the core parts of the paradox, only one of those assumptions seems essential: +The po",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T23:03:26.963000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","On kind of a meta-level, I should note that: +A. I was uncertain about lab leak through 2020 and 2021 and left a lot of ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T09:11:55.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""probability goes up"". Where is the new info? You knew from before the experiment started that you will find at least on",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T00:32:44.984000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The entire point of asking for three champions is so I don't have to listen to absolutely everyone. If they get chosen a,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T11:29:40.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I added a bit to my write up to try and clarify the confusion this market has produced. I'll paste it here: read my ful,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T01:25:27.058000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I have enough on my plate with + +I was going more for joking. I can be frustrated by things but it is also just play m",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:01:50.695000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Oh has it? Why does this market expire next month then? 170k is definitely a bigger number than I would have guessed.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..352855ce53bd980ef8b3059f3325e8ef0e6b115f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:55:07.655000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, the API is shut down so I can no longer give status reports on how, and when people are investing in the market. B",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T23:26:02.046000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",what is your % that it was a lab leak?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T17:41:31.714000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I think accepting the first clarifications as part of the paradox is fine. I don't think they clarify the paradox in the,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:09:58.177000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Because the different dataset adds a lot of uncertainty. +Compare 2022 +2023 looking like an average of 16.46 +2022 had",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-26T21:56:20.560000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sorry for my slowness on some of the open questions here, and on recruiting a mathematician to adjudicate. + and I have",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-11-12T15:30:36.151000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with t,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:22:32.129000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I fined + M10k (for now, this may increase based on the number of alts they create) and banned them so that they won't ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T18:31:56.096000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","ok fair enough I agree that statement was exaggerated. However, it is still true that we know almost nothing about what ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T18:11:19.998000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"There's also the claim that ""it is well known that finite formal systems are stronger than algorithms."" I don't know qui",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T07:23:38.776000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"don't have the positions api any more so no longer grouping by maxoutcome, but just by bet outcomes so the updated repor",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-30T01:00:02.942000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Of course all parties can do what they like within whatever constraints there are in the contract. No obligation to me t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T20:20:53.703000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Looks like + sold out and then other people bought in at a discount. +That news story is pretty funny once you know the",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:52:56.676000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,It was always very unlikely to fall in the summer months see my comment 3 months ago below.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T07:51:15.681000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"ah I had read it as requiring three people, you and someone else from YES and someone else from NO. +Conditional on @dre",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T09:13:39.940000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,To the new users who sadly have all their starting mana locked up in this market: you might be happy to hear that you ca,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T06:35:40.216000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I sold my shares here because I don't know when the market will resolve. + I vaguely remember that I suggested giving f",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:43:40.610000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","""The WIV was on a research proposals to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like coronaviruses the year before the pan",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-31T16:28:45.435000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sure, true if SIA is true, I answered both ways above.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-24T16:21:46.121000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I present to you: Altered Snake Eyes. +I posit No bettors would agree it is analogous to this question's convoluted mes",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:25:30.168000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I agree that that version was what I intended. Sounds like where I went wrong in my market description was to lead with ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:32:33.507000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If I were a nobody who had resolved P vs NP, I'd visit the nearest computer science department, and offer $100 and free ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:30.185000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm so glad I sold the majority of my position at 67% After getting burned off the F-35 market the other day, I don't th",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T21:05:48.328000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Zvi's hourly rate is $500 and judges say they spent about 150 hours on this. +Time to start a GoFundMe.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:36:56.190000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,What all these new accounts going to do with all the mana when this resolves to NO? 🤔,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:38:38.576000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here's the Altered Snake Eyes Paradox which should fit nicely to what you, +, had in mind. I suppose the Yes write-ups ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T10:00:17.957000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm just going to note here, impartially, that few people here seem to fully grasp the distinction to be drawn between """,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T17:42:50.719000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","of course high ratios exist, but when they are legit it is on trivial facts that no one needs a judged debate on. when d",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T13:36:23.549000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"As far as I understand, Kongo accepted (are you still doing this, + ?). If not, please discard everything else in this ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:18:07.277000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, that's a good high level summary. +It'll get into a lot more detail, of course -- the topic is complicated and the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-27T11:47:48.188000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"> log of 2 +Thanks! +> (2) Given that person n (call him Bob) flipped the coin, what are the chances he dies? +No, in th",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T17:17:29.236000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I added FAQ#8: +""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop"" has an implicit ""unless I",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T14:54:51.694000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,>Suppose another omniscient being Q' came to me and told me that he looked into the future and noticed that Q will roll ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:53:44.523000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks for your reply. I agree. My goal was to understand the problem better -- for me it helps. I also agree with you t,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T16:07:33.706000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It's hard to argue with ""I think [thing I said] had an implicit [x]"". +The ""can"" refers to ""cap it"". +Yes or no: Do you ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:22:44.664000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"No, it's valid to decide (and I came out in the black so my only real loss is time). +My feedback is that 'owner-of-the",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-12-14T23:46:04.282000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in ""NO"" for the hopes that the pe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:58:28.733000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would say that you absolutely +can + get a well-defined probability that the game lasts longer than N rounds, and tha",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T20:58:49.505000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Still preliminary but here's how our answers to these questions are shaping up: +Are we sure it's kosher to define a fin",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T00:57:15.304000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Death is rather extreme and why would organisers give away many billions of dollars, if it was really offered rather bei",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T22:03:43.526000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If we take a step back and look at the core parts of the paradox, only one of those assumptions seems essential: +The po",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T23:03:26.963000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","On kind of a meta-level, I should note that: +A. I was uncertain about lab leak through 2020 and 2021 and left a lot of ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T09:11:55.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""probability goes up"". Where is the new info? You knew from before the experiment started that you will find at least on",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T00:32:44.984000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The entire point of asking for three champions is so I don't have to listen to absolutely everyone. If they get chosen a,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T11:29:40.066000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I added a bit to my write up to try and clarify the confusion this market has produced. I'll paste it here: read my ful,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T01:25:27.058000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I have enough on my plate with + +I was going more for joking. I can be frustrated by things but it is also just play m",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:01:50.695000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Oh has it? Why does this market expire next month then? 170k is definitely a bigger number than I would have guessed.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..222618019282f82f2bacabcad7bb5cfecbb69205 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T14:11:56.152000+00:00,sXrjdBo5RHVNpMGow8quT1ke3EW2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm not making a drive by argument, I have responded to all responses to my comments. The issue is complex and I think t",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T00:39:32.835000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"FAQ1: The question is about the unrealistic case of Bitcoin closing, but it's never really closed so we can look at the ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T21:29:35.297000+00:00,67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Ah, I've re-read the convo more carefully and noticed that she answers directly to a suggestion that bots do inside trad",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-23T10:46:19.177000+00:00,rUocRsR4yEWriTP52LNIDf7XJY83,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Could we agree on some NO criteria that is actually likely to occur if the proof isn't right? Like, maybe if Wikipedia s",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:55:40.858000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","@NicoDelon + That's like 8 dollars. Check out the high roller right here.",YES,YES,True,True,1032.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T18:57:44.857000+00:00,rPuztcJyIDVXKOSVO4LQMJsXYpw2,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Your criteria are chosen in a way to make it unlikely to ever resolve, since few people—other than the peer reviewers, w",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-11-12T15:30:36.151000+00:00,2GVmvvpDoEX21up5OvknE74dMn63,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I agree with your comment on El Niño's role in potentially making 2023 the warmest year on record since it aligns with t,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T11:29:40.066000+00:00,dgrapR8Oacdtg4ef01lMAtyJRIV2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I added a bit to my write up to try and clarify the confusion this market has produced. I'll paste it here: read my ful,NO,NO,True,True,400.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T23:07:52.877000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,As for the second chart minute differences it may be how we calculate leap years or day number of year for lining up Sep,YES,NO,False,True,250.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-26T21:56:20.560000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sorry for my slowness on some of the open questions here, and on recruiting a mathematician to adjudicate. + and I have",YES,NO,False,True,3415.9628,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T16:07:33.706000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"It's hard to argue with ""I think [thing I said] had an implicit [x]"". +The ""can"" refers to ""cap it"". +Yes or no: Do you ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1217.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T00:57:15.304000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Death is rather extreme and why would organisers give away many billions of dollars, if it was really offered rather bei",YES,NO,False,True,22.6328,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T07:51:15.681000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"ah I had read it as requiring three people, you and someone else from YES and someone else from NO. +Conditional on @dre",YES,YES,True,True,22364.9539,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-13T22:43:08.565000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Political questions are rarely 99% certain. I never know with certainty which candidate is best or which policies are be,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1172.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T20:20:53.703000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Looks like + sold out and then other people bought in at a discount. +That news story is pretty funny once you know the",YES,YES,True,True,1217.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T19:55:07.655000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Yeah, the API is shut down so I can no longer give status reports on how, and when people are investing in the market. B",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,13976.9539,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-31T20:14:57.520000+00:00,PJ6ywFzkSDMvKoNuqjUS2ljyxVZ2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I agree their process seems good. It's basically just bayesian updating. +I think what I'm actually surprised about is ",YES,YES,True,True,30.1183,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-18T18:11:19.998000+00:00,e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"There's also the claim that ""it is well known that finite formal systems are stronger than algorithms."" I don't know qui",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T14:17:58.650000+00:00,sXrjdBo5RHVNpMGow8quT1ke3EW2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",""" +Probable Pangolin Origin of SARS-CoV-2 Associated with the COVID-19 Outbreak, April 2022. +Re WIV sampling in Laos. ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T06:35:40.216000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I sold my shares here because I don't know when the market will resolve. + I vaguely remember that I suggested giving f",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,98.5224,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-31T16:28:45.435000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sure, true if SIA is true, I answered both ways above.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T17:17:29.236000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I added FAQ#8: +""At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I stop"" has an implicit ""unless I",YES,NO,False,True,3454.899,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-24T16:21:46.121000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I present to you: Altered Snake Eyes. +I posit No bettors would agree it is analogous to this question's convoluted mes",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-12T10:59:51.104000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The heart of the paradox is +that it seems we can't integrate versions 1 and 2.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-03T00:04:00.661000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Phew, thanks for confirming that! When I first posed the question I was confused myself about the infinite case. It quic",YES,YES,True,True,3415.9628,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:32:33.507000+00:00,UyEt7kEhNUd9BmRLQsgOp4mOsnQ2,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"If I were a nobody who had resolved P vs NP, I'd visit the nearest computer science department, and offer $100 and free ",NO,NO,True,True,16002.4493,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T07:23:38.776000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"don't have the positions api any more so no longer grouping by maxoutcome, but just by bet outcomes so the updated repor",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,14476.9539,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T14:16:38.878000+00:00,4hRWjB6yc5TSRGNojA0vVAO7Xwz1,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've tried the good ol' Monte Carlo method: +https://gist.github.com/NiciusB/b9c100fd68dcf445744ffae9ac911408 +And it s",NO,NO,True,True,40.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T13:36:56.190000+00:00,67XuYLJp3xRgLipaJM6cV2w7cT23,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,What all these new accounts going to do with all the mana when this resolves to NO? 🤔,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-30T23:03:26.963000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","On kind of a meta-level, I should note that: +A. I was uncertain about lab leak through 2020 and 2021 and left a lot of ",YES,YES,True,True,1217.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T14:21:39.357000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Using temps from climatereanalyser rather than anomalies, then comparing to the year listed and Gistemp anomaly I get +1",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T22:03:43.526000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"If we take a step back and look at the core parts of the paradox, only one of those assumptions seems essential: +The po",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",YES,YES,True,True,3415.9628,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T17:05:17.755000+00:00,4hRWjB6yc5TSRGNojA0vVAO7Xwz1,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I changed the code to make every game count the same towards the average death probability, instead of games that go on ",NO,NO,True,True,440.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-22T01:25:27.058000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I have enough on my plate with + +I was going more for joking. I can be frustrated by things but it is also just play m",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T09:13:39.940000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,To the new users who sadly have all their starting mana locked up in this market: you might be happy to hear that you ca,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,13150.4723,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T14:54:51.694000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,>Suppose another omniscient being Q' came to me and told me that he looked into the future and noticed that Q will roll ,YES,YES,True,True,22.6328,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T17:22:32.129000+00:00,AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I fined + M10k (for now, this may increase based on the number of alts they create) and banned them so that they won't ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:23:30.185000+00:00,IGUXy80fNYfQCczdCscyV1o46XL2,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I'm so glad I sold the majority of my position at 67% After getting burned off the F-35 market the other day, I don't th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.4454,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T19:13:17.923000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Ok, I hereby commit to deferring to +'s ruling on this. I'm saying this before having any idea which way they lean beyo",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-02T18:39:23.279000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","it should at some point, yes. Not yet because rootclaim themselves haven't indicated that it happened. But you'd expect ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T09:48:21.775000+00:00,VJ5qBFNMalPi4ojcznApSetuST82,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","“a $100,000 prize” is an interesting term for a $100,000 bet at even odds for something they’re like 99% confident in.",YES,NO,False,True,1317.7112,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T12:03:24.447000+00:00,fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"A few more thoughts about this paradox. +It now seems clear that the Snake Eyes Paradox is a version of the Martingale b",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-29T22:54:32.730000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I have still not yet received writeups or champion lists from either YES or NO.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:25:51.912000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","It was my understanding that this market would resolve NO if it's a tie, and I think the language supports that. You wro",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-17T23:18:26.515000+00:00,PnEiCjYAt2e9VLCNrrZj1LUNCXA3,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Congrats on the 100k! Loved the video series, one of the few gems out there w.r.t in-depth research",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-16T20:56:59.842000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Did you read an old version of the market description or the current one? +A thing I mentioned earlier when Martin Randa",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3415.9628,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T13:53:57.887000+00:00,VJ5qBFNMalPi4ojcznApSetuST82,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I'm sorry this is just ridiculous. The ""Antarctic soil sampling"" is plainly contaminated with a variety of sequences fro",YES,NO,False,True,2052.7112,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T20:29:41.987000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I know some of you are way ahead of me but the +Bartha & Hitchcock paper + is kind of amazing. Everything is exactly th",YES,YES,True,True,12454.1214,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-03T13:53:44.523000+00:00,fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thanks for your reply. I agree. My goal was to understand the problem better -- for me it helps. I also agree with you t,YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T15:33:04.967000+00:00,fipk5wy5jmOnlqbI1pDXyHbwvxt2,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I sold and switched to NO for this reason,NO,NO,True,True,5.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T07:25:30.168000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I agree that that version was what I intended. Sounds like where I went wrong in my market description was to lead with ,YES,YES,True,True,3415.9628,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:10:46.364000+00:00,cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Is the answer to this already leaked, at least for men/women as a whole, or is this about kinks and not upbringing? +htt",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:46:32.397000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Sounds good! Thanks for doing this! My initial reactions: +0) You know that M$1308 can literally be bought for $13.08, r",YES,YES,True,True,3415.9628,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-03T20:43:40.610000+00:00,KWNt4lcEGWbnuywArsNsdrBUp8w1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","""The WIV was on a research proposals to insert furin cleavage sites into sars-like coronaviruses the year before the pan",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",YES,YES,True,True,250.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-17T00:58:10.406000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,If that aren't enough participants in the queue yet then you wait until there are?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T18:22:44.664000+00:00,1z40055VYnT7J3hQNj88xMd1stG3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"No, it's valid to decide (and I came out in the black so my only real loss is time). +My feedback is that 'owner-of-the",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:51:29.678000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Strictly speaking this provision is blatantly abusable mechanism for someone to theoretically buy a single share in the ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T13:36:23.549000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"As far as I understand, Kongo accepted (are you still doing this, + ?). If not, please discard everything else in this ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T20:20:58.479000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Wamba said: +so I can either defend my math or repair my error. +Actually, we don't have to show Opposing party their mi",NO,NO,True,True,797.1382,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-27T11:47:48.188000+00:00,rOa20oYtaJh19289nxtsMOtJUCd2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"> log of 2 +Thanks! +> (2) Given that person n (call him Bob) flipped the coin, what are the chances he dies? +No, in th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T10:00:17.957000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm just going to note here, impartially, that few people here seem to fully grasp the distinction to be drawn between """,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T18:31:56.096000+00:00,sXrjdBo5RHVNpMGow8quT1ke3EW2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","ok fair enough I agree that statement was exaggerated. However, it is still true that we know almost nothing about what ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-25T23:09:58.177000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Because the different dataset adds a lot of uncertainty. +Compare 2022 +2023 looking like an average of 16.46 +2022 had",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:58:28.733000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I would say that you absolutely +can + get a well-defined probability that the game lasts longer than N rounds, and tha",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-24T01:08:53.174000+00:00,RstQdqKVADgvP1AaFhuLjkIUbwe2,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,Insane market. It's a 12-page paper that came out nearly 2 years ago. It usually takes an afternoon to read something li,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T06:30:43.718000+00:00,7GfbkTkafOYdahK4KohuS566Fks1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","he could point to papers since the debate undermine core tenets of the market origin theory. +Spatial statistics expert",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-05T09:11:55.066000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""probability goes up"". Where is the new info? You knew from before the experiment started that you will find at least on",NO,NO,True,True,2695.9563,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:52:56.676000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,It was always very unlikely to fall in the summer months see my comment 3 months ago below.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T17:42:50.719000+00:00,eZHZZqT8u1aUHLnERZeOKkrcstw2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","of course high ratios exist, but when they are legit it is on trivial facts that no one needs a judged debate on. when d",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T02:13:14.205000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I very much am! Resolves to MKT is an option, yeah.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-12T23:18:07.277000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Yeah, that's a good high level summary. +It'll get into a lot more detail, of course -- the topic is complicated and the",YES,YES,True,True,1172.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T20:01:57.094000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Ok. But then I don't really understand your investment in this market. +35/36 chance of living + ends in dying +and +35/",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T11:01:50.695000+00:00,ZwcR6NQmrygF8xF7z9VrjWTlRRu1,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Oh has it? Why does this market expire next month then? 170k is definitely a bigger number than I would have guessed.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-15T00:32:44.984000+00:00,Fk46Giw1REZ5fdUN3kof9dYVSPt2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,The entire point of asking for three champions is so I don't have to listen to absolutely everyone. If they get chosen a,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-14T22:22:19.933000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,Question to everyone who wants me to resolve this NO: Do you believe that this paper has been subjected to sufficient sc,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-12-14T23:46:04.282000+00:00,XTvIDquQjQUstO3a3wjJYwVq8ZT2,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Dang, even though I'm well-aware this'll be a huge YES, I bought a single 1-mana share in ""NO"" for the hopes that the pe",NO,YES,False,True,5.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-28T23:03:05.108000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Seemed like both you and AK did, but it's all good. You have the right to be skeptical when you place your bets. For me,",YES,YES,True,True,1217.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",YES,YES,True,True,27976.6354,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:38:38.576000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here's the Altered Snake Eyes Paradox which should fit nicely to what you, +, had in mind. I suppose the Yes write-ups ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-03T21:05:48.328000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Zvi's hourly rate is $500 and judges say they spent about 150 hours on this. +Time to start a GoFundMe.",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-17T20:58:49.505000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Still preliminary but here's how our answers to these questions are shaping up: +Are we sure it's kosher to define a fin",YES,YES,True,True,23907.6354,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-30T01:00:02.942000+00:00,VJ5qBFNMalPi4ojcznApSetuST82,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Of course all parties can do what they like within whatever constraints there are in the contract. No obligation to me t,YES,NO,False,True,3054.7112,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-20T22:44:08.346000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,The CR anomaly is deducting the Sept 1979-2000 average of 15.475 rather than deducting 14 but this is just a constant of,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-05T17:13:47.461000+00:00,RyBSY9RP8weKsA6JOaSqPjFQFoi2,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Is the data source this: +https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies/anomalies + (global,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T13:41:42.916000+00:00,LCPe3o5H1ZWI1zzciqONSinpuwh1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have a question for + maybe I can reach him here. +Peter, do you think that WIV was ""unlucky"" that a natural spillov",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-08T13:42:16.308000+00:00,rPuztcJyIDVXKOSVO4LQMJsXYpw2,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,Selling since it doesn't seem like Isaac is interested in resolving this.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T06:09:07.973000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Your point 2 is actually a pretty good argument. +Though the lack of falsifiability is a much more common theme of lab l",YES,NO,False,True,1217.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-13T23:26:02.046000+00:00,rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",what is your % that it was a lab leak?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T19:38:35.913000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"There should be a new round in 35/36 of cases. And the round needs to increase until survival, not until death.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-13T07:57:07.998000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The conclusion of Paul Bartha and Christopher Hitchcock's ""The Shooting-Room Paradox and Conditionalizing on Measurably ",YES,YES,True,True,11426.9539,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:09:59.766000+00:00,KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Yes I had briefly looked at your graph and some of your comments. 0.3 sounds a bit higher than the ~0.1C I think I remem,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-24T17:41:31.714000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I think accepting the first clarifications as part of the paradox is fine. I don't think they clarify the paradox in the,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ccf476df526ecd882a6f209a271d8d8411ab032a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-13T20:24:44.005000+00:00,lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The graph shows the temperature ""anomaly"". Presumably the latter half of 2016 was below-average, so the cumulative anoma",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-05T13:21:21.313000+00:00,OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Hottest day ever : July 4th 2023 (17.18°C / 62.9°F) +This year is certainly on track for the hottest. +https://climatere",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-01-03T16:51:07.034000+00:00,PXelv1QrwZPOyEcal9Rg6B6gxer2,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Hard one. Climates getting hotter, but it's up against a lot of record breaking recent hot years +Say 1/6 chance. So pro",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-23T22:15:18.984000+00:00,Nct7J3kdYWaHjPvRv1STAhv3nHr2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Right, i understand the first two sentences. But aren't you using the CFSR daily data to predict the GISTEMP for Septemb",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-23T21:24:04.162000+00:00,Nct7J3kdYWaHjPvRv1STAhv3nHr2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"So, you're correcting for the CFR by using a +bias to produce a GISTEMP estimate. And the bias is based on the differe",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-07-15T16:24:56.779000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"I'm looking into this. It is useful to know first, the source of the data, which is under the figure for +Global Monthl",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T02:56:50.826000+00:00,ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"This proof seems wrong, in particular Lemma 3.1, since the algorithm doesn't have to break it into subproblems of size n",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-18T22:21:43.502000+00:00,gIQ6gmJBOacQH0JkEUDGXVCKMXu2,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The answer is YES, but it's undefined unless you read the FAQ, specifying the more about the problem. Given the informat",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T02:49:03.544000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Rootclaim's high end estimate was 1 in 719 million for natural origin. Not to be outdone, I offered 1 in 5*10^25 for lab",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T02:45:48.190000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Either the judges are irrational, or one of these two markets is mispriced.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T16:34:25.686000+00:00,SqOJYkeySMQjqP3UAypw6DxPx4Z2,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Rootclaim just reads like ""just look at how smart I am!"". And then he says Ola murdered Tair Rada which is the stupidest",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-30T21:43:54.661000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Done. The whole description is a bit out of date given it was written before it was known the debate would even take pla,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-19T20:38:04.656000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",FWIW - and I hope people haven't been betting much based on assuming otherwise - I don't think I should resolve N/A if t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-03T00:47:08.551000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No problem, I already resolved the ""will the debate occur"" market here on your evidence despite it being fakeable (we ca",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-02T18:48:49.524000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I believe so. He posted a screenshot of zoom/google meet/whatever, but his comme",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-02T18:39:23.279000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","it should at some point, yes. Not yet because rootclaim themselves haven't indicated that it happened. But you'd expect ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-29T01:36:21.291000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Right, but what's the evidence? That's just you stating your view, not the reasons. +Actually, I misread and thought + ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-29T01:22:43.251000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","OK. Not really an answer to +'s question.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-29T00:55:51.102000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I have no view here but how exactly would that violate physics?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-22T08:52:46.768000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Traders, I've added a clarification as to what counts as ""winning"", in light of some extra info about how the debate wil",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-09-26T00:30:48.405000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",This debate now looks likely to go ahead! See the below-linked market and comments therein.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:31:26.756000+00:00,IGUXy80fNYfQCczdCscyV1o46XL2,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Is no place sacred anymore from scammy crypto shilling?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T05:28:26.459000+00:00,IGUXy80fNYfQCczdCscyV1o46XL2,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,spank them and then tell them to fill out the survey,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T14:56:38.815000+00:00,pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"To make the answer less obvious, probably. But liberals might have conservative parents, though",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T14:38:36.736000+00:00,dEvAkoH19rTcIENraMy3kZyHOe82,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,Why filter to the liberal population?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a491ea4f5723797d7d156d0d2e2e961eea0b150 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,106 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,flip,False,True,2186.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True,True,3611.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,flip,False,True,19.6051,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-14T15:08:23.650000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Re-ran the above today since the global outlook came out saying it has a 93% chance of a warmest year. +These following ",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T13:38:14.919000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Based on my knowledge, I think that this is a serious paper about proving complexity lower bounds. I also think that com",increase,increase,True,True,12492.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False,True,74.8324,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,decrease,False,True,2666.826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True,True,1927.8843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False,True,7282.2539,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-24T17:07:21.802000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"thank you for the clarification, so Graham's Number perhaps should not be given any special treatment here. I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,15153.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False,True,14633.2627,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False,True,98.5224,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False,True,21626.5024,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,flip,False,True,14.6027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False,True,5464.2618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,decrease,False,True,74.8324,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T15:09:31.281000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,", per your request. +, I would love your take/assessment.",increase,hold,False,True,11426.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True,True,5381.9309,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T18:34:04.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There never was in my mind any doubt that Peter would be a good debater and I’d be happy for him to win even though we d,increase,hold,False,True,1362.3879,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False,True,14613.4493,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False,True,2907.9019,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False,True,14522.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:08:29.792000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market Report of accounts active in the last 48 hours, whether for betting or commenting.",increase,hold,False,True,22154.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,flip,False,True,1620.61,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True,True,1066.0371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,flip,True,True,7280.6173,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,flip,False,True,736.4095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-03T13:38:31.041000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Don't forget the heat waves in Southern Europe.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,increase,False,True,105.7491,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True,True,74.8324,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T11:52:20.788000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How much strong evidence do you have if I skimmed to a random point in one of your last presentations and found the name,increase,flip,False,True,2052.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False,True,27976.6354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",increase,hold,False,True,3415.9628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,118.9272,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T12:04:54.753000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks Julian. I don't quite understand what's wrong with the limit. + has written the exact formula for the conditiona",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.8482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6007,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False,True,4.9608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",increase,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False,True,27146.0404,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True,True,13758.8637,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T06:10:58.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thank you for posting the resolution terms there.,increase,hold,False,True,22364.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,hold,False,True,199.2323,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False,True,307.8021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,increase,False,True,37899.5171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T22:54:13.683000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","First, yes, I have read the WHO report. It seems you haven't read it carefully because if you had you would not equate t",increase,increase,True,True,2473.0748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-11T00:02:30.677000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Two debates have occurred. The second one had different participants as the first. +(I removed the judges and most of th",increase,hold,False,True,1102.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:28:08.894000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The TopHap paper also reports find both Bloom's preferred mutation (C29095T) and the proCoV2 mutation (C18060T) mutation,increase,hold,False,True,2111.7112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False,True,52.9799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,flip,False,True,5170.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a3c3fccbf24f8a606fb3178a89117f82fa59b594 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,decrease,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,decrease,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,decrease,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,decrease,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,hold,True +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,decrease,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,decrease,False +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,decrease,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,hold,False +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..aab4d04a9d984bcab9cc7d32235935e625e16a3f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,57 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,flip,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,flip,True +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,hold,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,flip,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,hold,True +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a491ea4f5723797d7d156d0d2e2e961eea0b150 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,106 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,flip,False,True,2186.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True,True,3611.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,flip,False,True,19.6051,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-14T15:08:23.650000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Re-ran the above today since the global outlook came out saying it has a 93% chance of a warmest year. +These following ",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T13:38:14.919000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Based on my knowledge, I think that this is a serious paper about proving complexity lower bounds. I also think that com",increase,increase,True,True,12492.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False,True,74.8324,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,decrease,False,True,2666.826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True,True,1927.8843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False,True,7282.2539,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-24T17:07:21.802000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"thank you for the clarification, so Graham's Number perhaps should not be given any special treatment here. I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,15153.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False,True,14633.2627,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False,True,98.5224,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False,True,21626.5024,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,flip,False,True,14.6027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False,True,5464.2618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,decrease,False,True,74.8324,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T15:09:31.281000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,", per your request. +, I would love your take/assessment.",increase,hold,False,True,11426.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True,True,5381.9309,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T18:34:04.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There never was in my mind any doubt that Peter would be a good debater and I’d be happy for him to win even though we d,increase,hold,False,True,1362.3879,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False,True,14613.4493,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False,True,2907.9019,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False,True,14522.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:08:29.792000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market Report of accounts active in the last 48 hours, whether for betting or commenting.",increase,hold,False,True,22154.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,flip,False,True,1620.61,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True,True,1066.0371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,flip,True,True,7280.6173,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,flip,False,True,736.4095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-03T13:38:31.041000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Don't forget the heat waves in Southern Europe.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,increase,False,True,105.7491,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True,True,74.8324,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T11:52:20.788000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How much strong evidence do you have if I skimmed to a random point in one of your last presentations and found the name,increase,flip,False,True,2052.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False,True,27976.6354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",increase,hold,False,True,3415.9628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,118.9272,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T12:04:54.753000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks Julian. I don't quite understand what's wrong with the limit. + has written the exact formula for the conditiona",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.8482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6007,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False,True,4.9608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",increase,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False,True,27146.0404,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True,True,13758.8637,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T06:10:58.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thank you for posting the resolution terms there.,increase,hold,False,True,22364.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,hold,False,True,199.2323,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False,True,307.8021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,increase,False,True,37899.5171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T22:54:13.683000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","First, yes, I have read the WHO report. It seems you haven't read it carefully because if you had you would not equate t",increase,increase,True,True,2473.0748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-11T00:02:30.677000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Two debates have occurred. The second one had different participants as the first. +(I removed the judges and most of th",increase,hold,False,True,1102.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:28:08.894000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The TopHap paper also reports find both Bloom's preferred mutation (C29095T) and the proCoV2 mutation (C18060T) mutation,increase,hold,False,True,2111.7112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False,True,52.9799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,flip,False,True,5170.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a491ea4f5723797d7d156d0d2e2e961eea0b150 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,106 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,flip,False,True,2186.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True,True,3611.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,flip,False,True,19.6051,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-14T15:08:23.650000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Re-ran the above today since the global outlook came out saying it has a 93% chance of a warmest year. +These following ",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T13:38:14.919000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Based on my knowledge, I think that this is a serious paper about proving complexity lower bounds. I also think that com",increase,increase,True,True,12492.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False,True,74.8324,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,decrease,False,True,2666.826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True,True,1927.8843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False,True,7282.2539,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-24T17:07:21.802000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"thank you for the clarification, so Graham's Number perhaps should not be given any special treatment here. I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,15153.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False,True,14633.2627,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False,True,98.5224,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False,True,21626.5024,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,flip,False,True,14.6027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False,True,5464.2618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,decrease,False,True,74.8324,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T15:09:31.281000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,", per your request. +, I would love your take/assessment.",increase,hold,False,True,11426.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True,True,5381.9309,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T18:34:04.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There never was in my mind any doubt that Peter would be a good debater and I’d be happy for him to win even though we d,increase,hold,False,True,1362.3879,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False,True,14613.4493,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False,True,2907.9019,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False,True,14522.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:08:29.792000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market Report of accounts active in the last 48 hours, whether for betting or commenting.",increase,hold,False,True,22154.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,flip,False,True,1620.61,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True,True,1066.0371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,flip,True,True,7280.6173,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,flip,False,True,736.4095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-03T13:38:31.041000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Don't forget the heat waves in Southern Europe.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,increase,False,True,105.7491,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True,True,74.8324,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T11:52:20.788000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How much strong evidence do you have if I skimmed to a random point in one of your last presentations and found the name,increase,flip,False,True,2052.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False,True,27976.6354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",increase,hold,False,True,3415.9628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,118.9272,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T12:04:54.753000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks Julian. I don't quite understand what's wrong with the limit. + has written the exact formula for the conditiona",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.8482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6007,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False,True,4.9608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",increase,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False,True,27146.0404,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True,True,13758.8637,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T06:10:58.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thank you for posting the resolution terms there.,increase,hold,False,True,22364.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,hold,False,True,199.2323,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False,True,307.8021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,increase,False,True,37899.5171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T22:54:13.683000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","First, yes, I have read the WHO report. It seems you haven't read it carefully because if you had you would not equate t",increase,increase,True,True,2473.0748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-11T00:02:30.677000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Two debates have occurred. The second one had different participants as the first. +(I removed the judges and most of th",increase,hold,False,True,1102.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:28:08.894000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The TopHap paper also reports find both Bloom's preferred mutation (C29095T) and the proCoV2 mutation (C18060T) mutation,increase,hold,False,True,2111.7112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False,True,52.9799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,flip,False,True,5170.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a491ea4f5723797d7d156d0d2e2e961eea0b150 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,106 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,flip,False,True,2186.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True,True,3611.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,flip,False,True,19.6051,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-14T15:08:23.650000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Re-ran the above today since the global outlook came out saying it has a 93% chance of a warmest year. +These following ",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T13:38:14.919000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Based on my knowledge, I think that this is a serious paper about proving complexity lower bounds. I also think that com",increase,increase,True,True,12492.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False,True,74.8324,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,decrease,False,True,2666.826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True,True,1927.8843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False,True,7282.2539,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-24T17:07:21.802000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"thank you for the clarification, so Graham's Number perhaps should not be given any special treatment here. I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,15153.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False,True,14633.2627,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False,True,98.5224,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False,True,21626.5024,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,flip,False,True,14.6027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False,True,5464.2618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,decrease,False,True,74.8324,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T15:09:31.281000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,", per your request. +, I would love your take/assessment.",increase,hold,False,True,11426.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True,True,5381.9309,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T18:34:04.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There never was in my mind any doubt that Peter would be a good debater and I’d be happy for him to win even though we d,increase,hold,False,True,1362.3879,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False,True,14613.4493,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False,True,2907.9019,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False,True,14522.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:08:29.792000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market Report of accounts active in the last 48 hours, whether for betting or commenting.",increase,hold,False,True,22154.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,flip,False,True,1620.61,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True,True,1066.0371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,flip,True,True,7280.6173,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,flip,False,True,736.4095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-03T13:38:31.041000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Don't forget the heat waves in Southern Europe.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,increase,False,True,105.7491,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True,True,74.8324,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T11:52:20.788000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How much strong evidence do you have if I skimmed to a random point in one of your last presentations and found the name,increase,flip,False,True,2052.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False,True,27976.6354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",increase,hold,False,True,3415.9628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,118.9272,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T12:04:54.753000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks Julian. I don't quite understand what's wrong with the limit. + has written the exact formula for the conditiona",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.8482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6007,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False,True,4.9608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",increase,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False,True,27146.0404,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True,True,13758.8637,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T06:10:58.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thank you for posting the resolution terms there.,increase,hold,False,True,22364.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,hold,False,True,199.2323,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False,True,307.8021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,increase,False,True,37899.5171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T22:54:13.683000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","First, yes, I have read the WHO report. It seems you haven't read it carefully because if you had you would not equate t",increase,increase,True,True,2473.0748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-11T00:02:30.677000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Two debates have occurred. The second one had different participants as the first. +(I removed the judges and most of th",increase,hold,False,True,1102.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:28:08.894000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The TopHap paper also reports find both Bloom's preferred mutation (C29095T) and the proCoV2 mutation (C18060T) mutation,increase,hold,False,True,2111.7112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False,True,52.9799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,flip,False,True,5170.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a491ea4f5723797d7d156d0d2e2e961eea0b150 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,106 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,flip,False,True,2186.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True,True,3611.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,flip,False,True,19.6051,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-14T15:08:23.650000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Re-ran the above today since the global outlook came out saying it has a 93% chance of a warmest year. +These following ",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T13:38:14.919000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Based on my knowledge, I think that this is a serious paper about proving complexity lower bounds. I also think that com",increase,increase,True,True,12492.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False,True,74.8324,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,decrease,False,True,2666.826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True,True,1927.8843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False,True,7282.2539,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-24T17:07:21.802000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"thank you for the clarification, so Graham's Number perhaps should not be given any special treatment here. I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,15153.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False,True,14633.2627,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False,True,98.5224,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False,True,21626.5024,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,flip,False,True,14.6027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False,True,5464.2618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,decrease,False,True,74.8324,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T15:09:31.281000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,", per your request. +, I would love your take/assessment.",increase,hold,False,True,11426.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True,True,5381.9309,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T18:34:04.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There never was in my mind any doubt that Peter would be a good debater and I’d be happy for him to win even though we d,increase,hold,False,True,1362.3879,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False,True,14613.4493,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False,True,2907.9019,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False,True,14522.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:08:29.792000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market Report of accounts active in the last 48 hours, whether for betting or commenting.",increase,hold,False,True,22154.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,flip,False,True,1620.61,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True,True,1066.0371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,flip,True,True,7280.6173,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,flip,False,True,736.4095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-03T13:38:31.041000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Don't forget the heat waves in Southern Europe.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,increase,False,True,105.7491,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True,True,74.8324,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T11:52:20.788000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How much strong evidence do you have if I skimmed to a random point in one of your last presentations and found the name,increase,flip,False,True,2052.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False,True,27976.6354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",increase,hold,False,True,3415.9628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,118.9272,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T12:04:54.753000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks Julian. I don't quite understand what's wrong with the limit. + has written the exact formula for the conditiona",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.8482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6007,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False,True,4.9608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",increase,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False,True,27146.0404,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True,True,13758.8637,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T06:10:58.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thank you for posting the resolution terms there.,increase,hold,False,True,22364.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,hold,False,True,199.2323,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False,True,307.8021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,increase,False,True,37899.5171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T22:54:13.683000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","First, yes, I have read the WHO report. It seems you haven't read it carefully because if you had you would not equate t",increase,increase,True,True,2473.0748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-11T00:02:30.677000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Two debates have occurred. The second one had different participants as the first. +(I removed the judges and most of th",increase,hold,False,True,1102.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:28:08.894000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The TopHap paper also reports find both Bloom's preferred mutation (C29095T) and the proCoV2 mutation (C18060T) mutation,increase,hold,False,True,2111.7112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False,True,52.9799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,flip,False,True,5170.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a491ea4f5723797d7d156d0d2e2e961eea0b150 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,106 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T17:55:38.555000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","At any point while adding “clean,” “long,” and “from a foreign source” did you wonder if you’re inappropriately multiply",increase,flip,False,True,2186.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:15:18.845000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,that's not for this specific subgroup? I'd be very confused if p(spanking|female) > p(spanking|male) for the entire samp,flip,flip,True,True,3611.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:12:08.552000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,apparently this survey is outdated,increase,flip,False,True,19.6051,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-14T15:08:23.650000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Re-ran the above today since the global outlook came out saying it has a 93% chance of a warmest year. +These following ",increase,increase,True,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-19T15:48:45.850000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I think the causal story that you're telling is reasonable. However, I think there's probably a strong correlation betwe",flip,hold,False,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T13:38:14.919000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Based on my knowledge, I think that this is a serious paper about proving complexity lower bounds. I also think that com",increase,increase,True,True,12492.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T20:40:11.944000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,"Hmm, I guess it makes sense that if Northern hemisphere winter is warming faster than Northern hemisphere summer, then t",flip,hold,False,True,74.8324,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T01:54:30.399000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","FWIW, Zvi did actually agree to do it for 20k, under the assumption it would be about 40 hours of work between debates a",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T06:53:33.935000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",TBH a lot of the lineage A vs B stuff was over my head. The one thing that I did understand was that the first several c,flip,decrease,False,True,2666.826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-04T16:34:30.995000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"https://twitter.com/rarohde/status/1676159433477373952?s=46&t=UtfUe5BOa4snUfcAGA0YQg + maybe I’m on the wrong side of th",flip,flip,True,True,1927.8843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T15:37:50.476000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I am sure you very well know Chen did not visit anywhere near HSM. Please continue your information operation. +Your arg",decrease,increase,False,True,24476.9473,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T06:18:47.008000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"Me too, but are we just assuming the market was correctly-priced before? Is anyone gonna buy my YES off me for more than",increase,decrease,False,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-10-13T18:35:58.538000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"Good idea, thanks. Guess I can slowly sell 1 share at a time to keep the streak alive til I'm back into the positive.",hold,decrease,False,True,7282.2539,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-24T17:07:21.802000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"thank you for the clarification, so Graham's Number perhaps should not be given any special treatment here. I don't thi",increase,hold,False,True,15153.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T04:07:10.123000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The assumption is stated as ""We only need to assume that this task is +finished by dividing the original problem into su",hold,decrease,False,True,14633.2627,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T22:59:38.467000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"The chance of at least one year between 2023 and 2027 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is very likely (98%). ",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-01-28T10:44:30.165000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"Yes. But you won't see Wikipedia saying all alleged proofs are invalid, you'll see it saying P vs NP is considered an op",hold,flip,False,True,98.5224,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-03-20T23:57:12.430000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I haven't read this paper, but another very common case for proof claims like this is ""the definitions and claims in the",hold,decrease,False,True,21626.5024,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T13:23:03.863000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I've done some more thinking and come to a weird conclusion: +It seems like the possibility of the infinite case implies",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-09-29T02:27:46.049000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,oh i was using the wrong baseline,decrease,flip,False,True,14.6027,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:36:05.615000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,@semi play along and cancel some of the big orders?,flip,hold,False,True,5464.2618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-08T10:36:25.278000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"The subjective element is the definition yes, sorry that was worded a bit confusingly +https://old.reddit.com/r/math/com",hold,hold,True,True,21.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:51:13.384000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I'm a little confused by July falling almost 0.2 degrees short of the record. I feel like I've seen claims of it being a,flip,decrease,False,True,74.8324,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T07:00:15.798000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"I Hope + is enjoying all the new trader bonuses she must be getting from this market",decrease,hold,False,True,97.7196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T15:09:31.281000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,", per your request. +, I would love your take/assessment.",increase,hold,False,True,11426.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T22:36:12.910000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","If one side researches extensively and finds lots of evidence, that means that there must be an equal amount of evidence",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T16:14:54.361000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I think Rootclaim's Bayesian Analysis is the wrong tool for the task. The goal of Rootclaim's analysis is to persuade th,decrease,decrease,True,True,5381.9309,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-07-09T23:13:52.749000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,"I'm not sure it even matters how record breaking it is. 2023 is already record-breaking, but has it changed anyone's min",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T04:27:27.505000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,"even if it's not up to date, that's still important evidence lol",flip,hold,False,True,2866.6747,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-04T18:34:04.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",There never was in my mind any doubt that Peter would be a good debater and I’d be happy for him to win even though we d,increase,hold,False,True,1362.3879,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-06T01:24:21.876000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Here are my thoughts for why it cannot be yes: +The position we are in is affected by the results of the dice rolls. If ",decrease,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-26T12:17:59.172000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"After eight revisions on arXiv, anything less than pristine writing for a paper of this length is a huge red flag.",hold,decrease,False,True,14613.4493,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T06:57:54.111000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not sure whether we should bring MWI into this. I'm a big fan, but this is convoluted enough as it is. Instead I'd prefe",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-07T16:12:30.562000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Sorry. Brain fart. Of course the question of later months is moot if July beats the record. Still probably wise to wait ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T02:05:25.812000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",I don't know enough of the technical details to really be comfortable editing the Wikipedia pages on it; my interaction ,decrease,hold,False,True,2907.9019,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T10:32:01.444000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,test comment to see if this page is responsive (for another market),flip,hold,False,True,280.1104,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-04-15T07:14:47.630000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"The authors of the paper ( +https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.01193 +), i.e. Dong, Zhou and Xu, have clearly explained in Secti",hold,decrease,False,True,14522.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-23T06:08:29.792000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Market Report of accounts active in the last 48 hours, whether for betting or commenting.",increase,hold,False,True,22154.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-02T03:03:40.629000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,I currently have YES shares. Which I'm trying to sell since NO got their act together.,decrease,flip,False,True,1620.61,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-19T05:39:45.978000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"variation of the monty hall problem. Given the specific constraints of the problem, +the fact that we're selected +giv",flip,flip,True,True,1066.0371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-18T00:23:52.987000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Glad that at least one person wants to watch the whole thing!,hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T08:57:35.772000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,where are you getting all these google accounts,flip,flip,True,True,7280.6173,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T12:01:28.779000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I have to ask, does the Rootclaim method of analysis (I think of it as ""Heroic Bayesian Analysis"") actually work? Basica",flip,decrease,False,True,1.8617,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-10-31T22:51:55.283000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Your high school bravado will not look good in hindsight if you lose that debate.,increase,flip,False,True,736.4095,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T11:13:13.626000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks, I'm way too much out out of my depth here to know what this means and how it applies, but actually my question j",flip,hold,False,True,44.2672,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-06T20:16:26.319000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Different strategy aimed at a different audience, I think. I'm trying to reach rationalist geeks who have the patience t",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-02T09:08:03.479000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Maybe + could you check in the paper whether +At some point one of those groups will be devoured by snakes and then I s",flip,decrease,False,True,44.2672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-08-03T13:38:31.041000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,Don't forget the heat waves in Southern Europe.,increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-04T23:53:18.674000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","I guess for every city you could have a starting P(lab leak) vs P(zoonosis), for a novel virus showing up there. The rat",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +onMAJ1OtuHSRdIXwxW2p,2023-09-01T20:30:52.218000+00:00,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,I've been studying works of the Nostradamus and he may have been predicting it like this! In Les Prophéties he is mentio,decrease,increase,False,True,105.7491,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-05T00:47:52.060000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The first instinct of DEFUSE authors tells they knew how prophetic their proposal was.,decrease,flip,False,True,26966.0404,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-08T23:33:29.229000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Who in China has disappeared for saying the virus came from a lab? +And please list what is fraudulent about Holmes 2021",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-14T16:49:08.599000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,I of course agree that the anomalies will be different in reality even if they're rounded to the same number on the page,flip,flip,True,True,74.8324,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T11:52:20.788000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",How much strong evidence do you have if I skimmed to a random point in one of your last presentations and found the name,increase,flip,False,True,2052.7112,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-26T07:07:23.514000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Definitely. I mean, we're debating a probability, so turning it into a bet is straightforward: +You join a pool of playe",decrease,hold,False,True,27976.6354,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T21:06:33.237000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"In fairness to the NO side, we should arguably not treat FAQs 6-9 as part of the problem statement. As I say in the desc",increase,hold,False,True,3415.9628,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-07T00:13:27.499000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I think I see what you mean - does this mean that different interpretations of ""unlimited"" (relating to the size of the ",decrease,flip,False,True,118.9272,FLIP,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-08T12:04:54.753000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Thanks Julian. I don't quite understand what's wrong with the limit. + has written the exact formula for the conditiona",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2mpd1pnsFS7L5jPhoyTY,2024-02-12T10:47:31.208000+00:00,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,"I'm curious if you're comfortable with this never resolving, Isaac? It looks like, right now, no well respected complexi",decrease,decrease,True,True,16692.8482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-21T23:03:49.306000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Actually, I do still have a link to the discussion that started this all: +https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/contra-kavan",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-20T19:40:52.884000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"So what do you think that example market should resolve to if bitcoin closed at 37.000? In my opinion, there is no clear",decrease,hold,False,True,0.6007,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-08-19T01:36:22.877000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Oh, I see, you're basically suggesting that a finite pool exists if and only if there's an escape clause rule (clarifica",flip,hold,False,True,4.9608,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-07-11T20:01:16.644000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"""But first I think we should finish getting on the same page about the probability in the 2-round, 3-person case. I get ",increase,flip,False,True,400.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T07:23:38.269000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Thanks for the link! +You're absolutely correct, as the probability for an argument gets higher, the most relevant odds ",hold,increase,False,True,1217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T09:36:02.826000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",Please check finding 7 in Gilles' report.,decrease,hold,False,True,27146.0404,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-03T19:58:20.677000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"I'm not sure if this is going to be a dumb caricature of +'s argument or if it will help but... +Say we want to find th",hold,hold,True,True,13758.8637,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-30T19:38:05.464000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Hi lorxus, good luck, I’m happy to be a no champion and answer questions on my writeup.",hold,hold,True,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-20T06:10:58.663000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,Thank you for posting the resolution terms there.,increase,hold,False,True,22364.9539,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-21T03:38:17.746000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,might be because many people are similarly overinvested already,increase,hold,False,True,199.2323,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-09-14T20:33:28.950000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,"Not a >2k shareholder, but these terms seem good to me. +I'm wondering how likely it is that this market resolves N/A no",flip,hold,False,True,307.8021,HOLD,qwen3:32b +l2Pci4rwD2S50eFGZiCj,2023-10-31T04:28:23.310000+00:00,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,What's your thinking in betting so heavily on NO at this point? I've now spent 179 hours and counting on this problem an,decrease,increase,False,True,37899.5171,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-12-01T22:54:13.683000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","First, yes, I have read the WHO report. It seems you haven't read it carefully because if you had you would not equate t",increase,increase,True,True,2473.0748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eYFRaxXGZpYW6o5XbzHB,2023-09-20T15:27:23.182000+00:00,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,I made a mirror for anyone who's concerned about this one resolving N/A and wants to bet on the actual question. Also be,flip,hold,False,True,7832.7383,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2023-11-11T00:02:30.677000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","Two debates have occurred. The second one had different participants as the first. +(I removed the judges and most of th",increase,hold,False,True,1102.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-02-06T13:25:36.649000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",A version of the market where draw doesnt resolves to NA but resolves to NO,hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-22T07:28:08.894000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",The TopHap paper also reports find both Bloom's preferred mutation (C29095T) and the proCoV2 mutation (C18060T) mutation,increase,hold,False,True,2111.7112,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-19T21:53:26.645000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","For those people assuming a tie was No, switching it to N/A also meaningfully changes the probabilities. +Anyways, it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-21T22:29:42.067000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?","No, I do not think that comment will change Saar's mind. I've been talking to Saar for 11 months now and I'm quite convi",hold,flip,False,True,1217.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +sK6jhPERlI0FSTdszm7p,2023-08-15T16:11:06.551000+00:00,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,Based on past data and 2016 in particular I think December is still the most likely month this year for it to break the ,flip,hold,False,True,52.9799,HOLD,qwen3:32b +wUVx1lah6QNcAeSYcNCc,2024-01-05T00:57:50.487000+00:00,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",lol. Why did he delete his account just now?,decrease,flip,False,True,5170.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e5b6069cb3a5e4a53781a895fc3287f0a48e4dc1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.28091343626085197,0.9991033229375568,0.7181898866767048,UP,0.28267311772577725,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,15,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.4348582362149939,0.9954515420071379,0.560593305792144,UP,0.9554183715799203,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,100,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.43000000000000005,0.9748494374902077,0.5448494374902076,UP,0.0886957767122263,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will Peter Miller win the ""Rootclaim Challenge"" debate with Saar Wilf on the origins of COVID-19?",57,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.82,0.0005831338611965,-0.8194168661388035,DOWN,0.694251354292413,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,20,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.020000000000000004,0.052723206537337974,0.03272320653733797,UP,0.042661273837826974,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,19,DOWN,qwen3:32b +5,0.5945189376107543,0.9972360004359538,0.4027170628251996,UP,0.9984777924002566,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,10,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9850a2b5c2c5e5ea502a05b7ca07f70fd966c912 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/science/qwen3_manifold_science_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.2809134362608521,0.7164231260291064,0.4355096897682543,UP,0.31986198778299324,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,22,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.82,0.6057076104880402,-0.21429238951195972,DOWN,0.6129032258064516,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?,8,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.4348582362149939,0.8956864021459573,0.4608281659309634,UP,0.7499083544580528,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,66,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.5945189376107543,0.9809804504438663,0.38646151283311203,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.5945189376107543,0.9298003234567248,0.33528138584597056,UP,0.9633426593824403,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,32,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.280913436260852,0.983897387898178,0.702983951637326,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.4348582362149939,0.8966250592930596,0.46176682307806566,UP,0.8994302713806718,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,50,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7,0.5945189376107543,0.49843450580772763,-0.09608443180302662,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8,0.4348582362149939,0.867331455167504,0.43247321895251006,UP,0.9642171132222499,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?,67,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9,0.02,0.06060637587397423,0.040606375873974226,UP,0.14976702215397558,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Is the proof of P != NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou valid?,4,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/commitment_validity_manifold_social.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/commitment_validity_manifold_social.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ca1a9c37f695c3527d01ab8d36a97f2d7526533c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/commitment_validity_manifold_social.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/social", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 47, + "n_wrong_bettors": 11, + "n_directional": 7, + "skip": "n_dir=7<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=36<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/did_manifold_social.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/did_manifold_social.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a920b059e7bf41bfc9557cbe969d5ab7152add08 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/did_manifold_social.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/social", + "n_pre_directional": 37, + "n_post_directional": 36, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.4324, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.6944, + "did": 0.0676, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=2<10" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f9b6c26b089ebc5b42908f30da6bec386f1ad184 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T20:53:35.367000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,But we only need six days. (Christmas morning),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:06:32.872000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Please do, I'm rooting for team YES over here :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:30:11.924000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is about 22x$1000 mana purchases in the last few hours. I don't think Manifold got more popular,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:32:56.925000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No; the current proposal would be to have Isaac's negative balance be a loss that comes out of Manifold's treasury (as w,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T09:10:43.669000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,yeah it's also a reputational risk now,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-07T14:47:22.321000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"see my rules posted in the comments. i somehow forgot to put them in the description: + If Destiny calls it a manifesto,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-18T17:14:04.334000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time an",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:58:18.464000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"@L + also, to be clear: classical liberals echoing their white supremacist friends without realizing does not give the c",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:56:55.797000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've reconsidered possible ways forward. I don't need API keys (it's gone gray-to-black zone since that), just your part",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:26:14.842000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't expect more than token numbers from China at this point (not enough to matter for this question) because the CCP,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T17:32:13.437000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Doing a 50k now will not help at all. You can do one more 20-30k if you want, but you should just be prepping mentally f",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:42:52.883000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Oh yeah, lots can happen in a year, like a second waves or something. But also, I think it's plausible that Covid testin",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:48:51.732000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I bought Yes -- an attempt on the 21st that has some reason for failure gives a full 10 days to prep for a 2nd attempt, ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:47:32.204000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Ah, almost forgot: admins gave him a $25k refund as soon as it got clear that he's going to loose. +But it's OK cuz now",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:37.087000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'd give it only a 10% chance that we would resolve it N/A at this point. More likely we will just absorb any losses if ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:19:59.078000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"np :"") could understand why you would think that since i bought YES lol (and made arguments previously in this post abou",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:14:16.343000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,That is precisely the point Isaac himself is making.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:01:42.582000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Not sure why people seem to think they can extort me by buying 1 NO share. It's obviously a terrible strategy for me to ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T19:38:44.104000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Rooting for him, but he needs 4.8k/hour for the last 8 hours in order to get to 100k. That's pretty hard! Over the last ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:16:11.139000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,short summary: Isaac devised a plan and tested it ahead of time; He was so sure he's going to win big that he even wrote,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:45:52.498000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This is crazy, in just a few hours I went from holding nothing to being a top-20 Yes holder. 😎",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:12:17.557000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Lol @ spamming with the links to other markets to hide the very pertinent and worrisome comments made earlier. Let's fac,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:50:27.740000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This guy rly pays $100 real cash for every person who buys no?,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:58:13.284000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,holy shit if the $30k is a significant amount of money for him I feel kinda bad. Haven't seen the message from his partn,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T14:06:48.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I bought 500 M yes at 50% and now I'm still at -100 M profits.😭,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:49:04.972000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",After 1-2 days we can start doing a few steps hopefully 😂,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:30:24.284000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",They won't be wearing a heavy pack or walking in boots; they stand to gain roughly $10k worth of mana; they have 80 beli,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:01:48.305000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",nobody's trolling. I'm just surprised at the number of people willing to bet on very subjective/easily manipulated marke,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T01:46:45.859000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Already did. I bought Yes at 49% within the first hour on the first day.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:08:43.224000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,The market rules actually incentivizes NO to sell out unless they have gone all in.... any amount of NO shares being hel,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:43:59.443000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So, either 1 giga-whale shall preside over desolation or 100 greed-motivated mini-whales shall descend upon us poors. 🤣",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:51:31.336000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current Status: DRAMA +Topic: Paid Referrals +Summary: +A week ago, + paid a bunch of minnows to sign up on Manifold. A",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:36:50.115000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"can't believe i sold my NO at the worst possible moment, cuz i had to go to sleep. should of just left it overnight. -5",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:56:15.547000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"A US-centric point of view is appropriate in some instances, and within this case, given that the US is the main financi",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-07T06:19:16.881000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,It's the new negative Covid variant taking over.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:57:28.187000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Interesting, catnee is cashing out at 10%",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-11T13:42:51.112000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"At this moment, I see both 435 positions listed, and exactly the same number of investors in YES and NO.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:39:45.360000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh, the boots I bought were literally ready to go, I never broke them in. That is against the traditional perspective of",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:54:11.397000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"btw + I’m done here but left a single NO share currently worth ~M$9k to you, willing to sell and stay away for M$4k",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:11:10.494000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yes, we did think about this. All bailouts are necessarily unfair and create perverse incentives, but Isaac's spending w",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T16:55:58.606000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"That's a reasonable position, but life can never be perfectly ""fair."" +Here, I would judge Manifold fairly harshly if i",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:23:10.946000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you so concerned with calling N/A on this and the markets surrounding it when that has no bearing on the fact th,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-30T00:00:35.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Quite a few of those accounts were deleted after they were used to manipulate markets the last time. The pattern of obfu,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:02:52.617000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'll give you M$1 for a meme, right now.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-26T04:53:09.979000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"$420 on YES. +Counter mrgirl manifesto incoming lmao",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:01:56.662000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It's all of the stress and pitfalls of the stock market without any of the benefit. AMAZIN,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:34.810000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac is not making 200k/year. I can attest to the fact that this is not just a significant portion of his wealth, it's ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7a25fd3ba2e32597d207b112c1e3ce7c9c7719e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T20:53:35.367000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,But we only need six days. (Christmas morning),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:06:32.872000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Please do, I'm rooting for team YES over here :)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:30:11.924000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is about 22x$1000 mana purchases in the last few hours. I don't think Manifold got more popular,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:32:56.925000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No; the current proposal would be to have Isaac's negative balance be a loss that comes out of Manifold's treasury (as w,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T09:10:43.669000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,yeah it's also a reputational risk now,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-07T14:47:22.321000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"see my rules posted in the comments. i somehow forgot to put them in the description: + If Destiny calls it a manifesto,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-18T17:14:04.334000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time an",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:58:18.464000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"@L + also, to be clear: classical liberals echoing their white supremacist friends without realizing does not give the c",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:56:55.797000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've reconsidered possible ways forward. I don't need API keys (it's gone gray-to-black zone since that), just your part",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:26:14.842000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't expect more than token numbers from China at this point (not enough to matter for this question) because the CCP,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T17:32:13.437000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Doing a 50k now will not help at all. You can do one more 20-30k if you want, but you should just be prepping mentally f",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:42:52.883000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Oh yeah, lots can happen in a year, like a second waves or something. But also, I think it's plausible that Covid testin",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:48:51.732000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I bought Yes -- an attempt on the 21st that has some reason for failure gives a full 10 days to prep for a 2nd attempt, ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:47:32.204000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Ah, almost forgot: admins gave him a $25k refund as soon as it got clear that he's going to loose. +But it's OK cuz now",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:37.087000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'd give it only a 10% chance that we would resolve it N/A at this point. More likely we will just absorb any losses if ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:19:59.078000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"np :"") could understand why you would think that since i bought YES lol (and made arguments previously in this post abou",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:14:16.343000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,That is precisely the point Isaac himself is making.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:01:42.582000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Not sure why people seem to think they can extort me by buying 1 NO share. It's obviously a terrible strategy for me to ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T19:38:44.104000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Rooting for him, but he needs 4.8k/hour for the last 8 hours in order to get to 100k. That's pretty hard! Over the last ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:16:11.139000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,short summary: Isaac devised a plan and tested it ahead of time; He was so sure he's going to win big that he even wrote,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:45:52.498000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This is crazy, in just a few hours I went from holding nothing to being a top-20 Yes holder. 😎",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:12:17.557000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Lol @ spamming with the links to other markets to hide the very pertinent and worrisome comments made earlier. Let's fac,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:50:27.740000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This guy rly pays $100 real cash for every person who buys no?,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:58:13.284000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,holy shit if the $30k is a significant amount of money for him I feel kinda bad. Haven't seen the message from his partn,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T14:06:48.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I bought 500 M yes at 50% and now I'm still at -100 M profits.😭,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:49:04.972000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",After 1-2 days we can start doing a few steps hopefully 😂,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:30:24.284000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",They won't be wearing a heavy pack or walking in boots; they stand to gain roughly $10k worth of mana; they have 80 beli,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:01:48.305000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",nobody's trolling. I'm just surprised at the number of people willing to bet on very subjective/easily manipulated marke,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T01:46:45.859000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Already did. I bought Yes at 49% within the first hour on the first day.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:08:43.224000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,The market rules actually incentivizes NO to sell out unless they have gone all in.... any amount of NO shares being hel,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:43:59.443000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So, either 1 giga-whale shall preside over desolation or 100 greed-motivated mini-whales shall descend upon us poors. 🤣",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:51:31.336000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current Status: DRAMA +Topic: Paid Referrals +Summary: +A week ago, + paid a bunch of minnows to sign up on Manifold. A",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:36:50.115000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"can't believe i sold my NO at the worst possible moment, cuz i had to go to sleep. should of just left it overnight. -5",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:56:15.547000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"A US-centric point of view is appropriate in some instances, and within this case, given that the US is the main financi",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-07T06:19:16.881000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,It's the new negative Covid variant taking over.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:57:28.187000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Interesting, catnee is cashing out at 10%",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-11T13:42:51.112000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"At this moment, I see both 435 positions listed, and exactly the same number of investors in YES and NO.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:39:45.360000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh, the boots I bought were literally ready to go, I never broke them in. That is against the traditional perspective of",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:54:11.397000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"btw + I’m done here but left a single NO share currently worth ~M$9k to you, willing to sell and stay away for M$4k",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:11:10.494000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yes, we did think about this. All bailouts are necessarily unfair and create perverse incentives, but Isaac's spending w",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T16:55:58.606000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"That's a reasonable position, but life can never be perfectly ""fair."" +Here, I would judge Manifold fairly harshly if i",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:23:10.946000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you so concerned with calling N/A on this and the markets surrounding it when that has no bearing on the fact th,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-30T00:00:35.834000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Quite a few of those accounts were deleted after they were used to manipulate markets the last time. The pattern of obfu,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:02:52.617000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'll give you M$1 for a meme, right now.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-26T04:53:09.979000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"$420 on YES. +Counter mrgirl manifesto incoming lmao",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:01:56.662000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It's all of the stress and pitfalls of the stock market without any of the benefit. AMAZIN,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:34.810000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac is not making 200k/year. I can attest to the fact that this is not just a significant portion of his wealth, it's ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1522014dc5cc93fba51fb480a010f78a37ac42e0 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,127 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:01:42.582000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Not sure why people seem to think they can extort me by buying 1 NO share. It's obviously a terrible strategy for me to ,YES,YES,True,True,4279820.6121,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:45:52.498000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","This is crazy, in just a few hours I went from holding nothing to being a top-20 Yes holder. 😎",YES,YES,True,True,909.3391,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T16:55:26.030000+00:00,ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,The notion doc says you were deleting the alts to obfuscate your hacks but you contradict that by saying you requested t,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T14:01:48.305000+00:00,LqkHeAwGXANVwqsBPLKoWaczCdD2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",nobody's trolling. I'm just surprised at the number of people willing to bet on very subjective/easily manipulated marke,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,DOrTcRXwJoMJm2RuntryCsNzyv83,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:36:50.115000+00:00,7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"can't believe i sold my NO at the worst possible moment, cuz i had to go to sleep. should of just left it overnight. -5",NO,YES,False,True,5838.9067,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:42:52.883000+00:00,4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Oh yeah, lots can happen in a year, like a second waves or something. But also, I think it's plausible that Covid testin",NO,NO,True,True,2833.7063,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:57:02.869000+00:00,petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"As Isaac showed, you really can’t buy enough shares to make a difference short term in this market without driving the p",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T09:02:52.617000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'll give you M$1 for a meme, right now.",YES,YES,True,True,4189820.6121,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-09T02:21:18.499000+00:00,XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,Do you have a list of books you plan to read? Or will it be spontaneously (or a mix)?,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T20:12:17.557000+00:00,tMeoKLwmm3gqM8XMi7WdP4vEeoe2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Lol @ spamming with the links to other markets to hide the very pertinent and worrisome comments made earlier. Let's fac,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T14:06:48.121000+00:00,oUgPddypDwU63f9ou9hyV74NqD33,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I bought 500 M yes at 50% and now I'm still at -100 M profits.😭,YES,YES,True,True,68.4781,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:01:25.868000+00:00,0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"At the request of the resolution committee, I have extended the close time.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:47:32.204000+00:00,saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Ah, almost forgot: admins gave him a $25k refund as soon as it got clear that he's going to loose. +But it's OK cuz now",NO,NO,True,True,7198.5808,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T14:47:03.937000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,there'es something incredibly confused about this claim. Do the nuclear risk markets phrased as 'will a nuclear weapon b,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:39:34.810000+00:00,mQ81PJR9SWZWYzJ5z6g3ph5a9qg2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Isaac is not making 200k/year. I can attest to the fact that this is not just a significant portion of his wealth, it's ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-05-05T10:19:36.035000+00:00,c1tT08TM3Vh2Wu8ct0uEoxhJPe32,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I have to admit, when I started this market, I was not counting on another manifesto and honestly it was like my first f",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-07T14:47:22.321000+00:00,c1tT08TM3Vh2Wu8ct0uEoxhJPe32,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"see my rules posted in the comments. i somehow forgot to put them in the description: + If Destiny calls it a manifesto,",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:55:27.392000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,every person you recruit is basically $100 to charity,NO,YES,False,True,61647.1735,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:58:14.081000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"It's pretty buried, so here it is again: +My offer to all NO holders with less than 2000 NO shares (as of a few hours ag",YES,YES,True,True,4020890.7452,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:08:43.224000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,The market rules actually incentivizes NO to sell out unless they have gone all in.... any amount of NO shares being hel,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:11:12.173000+00:00,2LjUvOpTizTV94fSU8yy2okF0BA3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yeah I totally agree with you. I actually am very okay with them refunding the $30k to Isaac, I don’t want his life or a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T05:58:13.284000+00:00,XpmfuBOkiNOh6DJBA9sRbWzTg3T2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,holy shit if the $30k is a significant amount of money for him I feel kinda bad. Haven't seen the message from his partn,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,292.5581,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:56:30.283000+00:00,7SAxbVR3DGeL60bWIPW6FYINR3V2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'm rooting for you Isaac even though I bought No. I just wanna see how far you'll go. The schizoid mind is a beautiful ,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-07T06:19:16.881000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,It's the new negative Covid variant taking over.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-30T21:21:45.129000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Levi & Mira pumping the market, just like the OpenAI AGI market +(This is a joke Levi I don't actually know what info yo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:47:25.044000+00:00,XPHdlLs4vTOmkeW6cvDHVRY1Ads2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","this is what I've heard all my life, but I took some good advice in store and the boots I bought were cushioned at the a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T00:26:14.842000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't expect more than token numbers from China at this point (not enough to matter for this question) because the CCP,NO,NO,True,True,70.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:57:50.147000+00:00,dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,": On second thought, we should also N/A all the + meta-markets on WvM +, since I think the secondary WvM ""economy"" (if I",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T09:34:45.116000+00:00,DOcnvnHZFHP7gQVlocXk2rHiRC83,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I wonder why aren't you creating e.g. a limit order at 10% for the whole sum to at least get some mana back,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T23:24:52.643000+00:00,kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Well I'm ruined by this market since I went to sleep last night betting on yes at high price thinking Isaac was going to,YES,YES,True,True,10573.6834,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:51:31.336000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Current Status: DRAMA +Topic: Paid Referrals +Summary: +A week ago, + paid a bunch of minnows to sign up on Manifold. A",NO,YES,False,True,147134.4291,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T19:01:56.662000+00:00,CUr8WuwqQBgzEXuTddC6N7fHI7J2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,It's all of the stress and pitfalls of the stock market without any of the benefit. AMAZIN,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:59:37.957000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"team no did a lot of recruiting after isaac dumped 25k in, they're mostly real people",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:38:18.056000+00:00,2LjUvOpTizTV94fSU8yy2okF0BA3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why is this all the sudden an issue now and not when Isaac actually made the purchase? Now that he’s about to “lose”? H,NO,NO,True,True,15600.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:48:53.986000+00:00,kNflUWIdOQgfvSpoNNAJsg4OZmx1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Everyone lost this market. No side lost their mana, Isaac lost $22000...",NO,YES,False,True,1322.9181,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-18T17:14:04.334000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time an",YES,YES,True,True,323249.6695,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T20:53:35.367000+00:00,jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,But we only need six days. (Christmas morning),YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T04:42:48.655000+00:00,n0DYRRWaoFQkSrsjeHZveSedys42,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,posted in the orbiter channel alrdy,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T05:11:39.690000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Should I spend $50k on YES shares not to win a ""profit"" but simply to deny Isaac the bragging rights of being the bigges",NO,YES,False,True,148258.1317,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:54:11.397000+00:00,X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"btw + I’m done here but left a single NO share currently worth ~M$9k to you, willing to sell and stay away for M$4k",NO,YES,False,True,145.071,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:39:45.360000+00:00,XPHdlLs4vTOmkeW6cvDHVRY1Ads2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","oh, the boots I bought were literally ready to go, I never broke them in. That is against the traditional perspective of",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,20.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T23:46:14.856000+00:00,3xOUxsnjKSRyEMyV1lmWSAB22gm2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,What's with all the recent action?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:50:27.740000+00:00,EvvP83GYnANU1xDAuAzNQvdMah22,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This guy rly pays $100 real cash for every person who buys no?,NO,NO,True,True,100.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-26T04:53:09.979000+00:00,CUr8WuwqQBgzEXuTddC6N7fHI7J2,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"$420 on YES. +Counter mrgirl manifesto incoming lmao",YES,YES,True,True,420.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T02:54:19.443000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"No, you can go on a public recruiting spree and possibly still win the market or at least make Isaac spend literally $10",NO,NO,True,True,148258.1317,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:56:15.547000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"A US-centric point of view is appropriate in some instances, and within this case, given that the US is the main financi",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-10-02T08:15:40.965000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"That seems like it would be a pretty straightforward first amendment violation, no? As such I'm pretty skeptical that th",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:48.062000+00:00,2LjUvOpTizTV94fSU8yy2okF0BA3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I think you vastly overestimate what wealthy means, especially someone at a young age. There are not many in the US that",NO,NO,True,True,15600.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T19:16:11.139000+00:00,saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,short summary: Isaac devised a plan and tested it ahead of time; He was so sure he's going to win big that he even wrote,NO,YES,False,True,7198.5808,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:01:01.898000+00:00,DBcRybX2vGQpqf1pDLiWze5KZqv1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he compulsively gambled. Hated it, wanted to stop, expressed it also but couldn't stop and kept buying till he had alrea",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-16T16:49:21.556000+00:00,7BBZKAyVmnOwhdEKjVwe4u3L0vn2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"But brinit depends on you right? You eat less train more you lose weight, you eat more protein and lift heavyweight and ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,2LjUvOpTizTV94fSU8yy2okF0BA3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T16:06:32.872000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Please do, I'm rooting for team YES over here :)",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-19T14:26:39.626000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"First off, very impressive yet again that you actually attempted to fit a mathematical function on this problem set. Thi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:23:10.946000+00:00,2LjUvOpTizTV94fSU8yy2okF0BA3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Why are you so concerned with calling N/A on this and the markets surrounding it when that has no bearing on the fact th,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T17:48:51.732000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I bought Yes -- an attempt on the 21st that has some reason for failure gives a full 10 days to prep for a 2nd attempt, ",YES,YES,True,True,3159.3391,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",NO,NO,True,True,14419.5132,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:14:27.110000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Dude that's a tough exterior. I'm not even you and even I got uncomfortable. Then I went to the top all time and the way,NO,NO,True,True,85.8983,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T21:50:56.673000+00:00,dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I actually looked up the effects of resolving to N/A (Manifold's FAQ page is at +https://help.manifold.markets/c69e1194",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T12:31:25.534000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"yeah i'd prefer if whalebait markets didn't count as profits, not because they aren't fun, but because they're less inte",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-23T00:19:59.078000+00:00,CZdJly2L8iYvTVXDhugzuVqdLNF3,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"np :"") could understand why you would think that since i bought YES lol (and made arguments previously in this post abou",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-09T17:32:13.437000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Doing a 50k now will not help at all. You can do one more 20-30k if you want, but you should just be prepping mentally f",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T18:36:41.534000+00:00,wWe19tgyZQeK8en8FaEAiiQlu693,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"dude, stop the cope and take ur fat L",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T13:59:58.882000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"yeah, i know. it's still pretty correlated with intelligence and predictive accuracy because winning whalebait markets t",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T01:46:45.859000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Already did. I bought Yes at 49% within the first hour on the first day.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T09:10:43.669000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,yeah it's also a reputational risk now,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T03:49:04.972000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",After 1-2 days we can start doing a few steps hopefully 😂,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-11T13:42:51.112000+00:00,LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"At this moment, I see both 435 positions listed, and exactly the same number of investors in YES and NO.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1300.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T19:38:44.104000+00:00,iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Rooting for him, but he needs 4.8k/hour for the last 8 hours in order to get to 100k. That's pretty hard! Over the last ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:43:59.443000+00:00,rhJMs6pirQhaSUosBNgN9OWHA802,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So, either 1 giga-whale shall preside over desolation or 100 greed-motivated mini-whales shall descend upon us poors. 🤣",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:47:39.680000+00:00,R5EPvvH40vXRW7bmhjHkp4Y0Y112,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,youre fucking dgg too you goddamn traitor,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-15T02:00:29.082000+00:00,9m484CVahhf8fQRMLcvycrAi8Yw2,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,Robert Jordan needed an editor with a scythe,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:30:11.924000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,there is about 22x$1000 mana purchases in the last few hours. I don't think Manifold got more popular,NO,NO,True,True,62997.1735,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:56:55.797000+00:00,eRP4T6gbZhTaIEBhDzs5flwmwFJ3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I've reconsidered possible ways forward. I don't need API keys (it's gone gray-to-black zone since that), just your part",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:43:32.409000+00:00,x02kfgRxhnN5MoRxZyTBCYqf9em1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"this will be irrelevant now, + . Who will benefit from the chaos? this is a time sink without the fun",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:55:37.087000+00:00,uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I'd give it only a 10% chance that we would resolve it N/A at this point. More likely we will just absorb any losses if ,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T12:36:54.175000+00:00,L4WM4Mpwo7TlkuZtGzdgyHrTnhf1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,If I spent 1 mana does it count as I bought 1 NO share?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:42:39.230000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"so like yeah same but also please read my comments in the other thread, if he's agentically white supremacist then that ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-30T00:00:35.834000+00:00,ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Quite a few of those accounts were deleted after they were used to manipulate markets the last time. The pattern of obfu,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2022-12-28T03:58:18.464000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"@L + also, to be clear: classical liberals echoing their white supremacist friends without realizing does not give the c",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:40:44.094000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He walked faster while awake, but took a lot of breaks in the first third of the day. He also started late.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",NO,NO,True,True,148258.1317,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,NO,YES,False,True,185627.3121,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T05:26:44.659000+00:00,1RfsLVzFZwaLLXGaSr5yaG5ink23,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Waiting for this comment section to explode when August calls the video ""Melifesto"" (Such an opportunity missed if he do",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T23:11:24.101000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I sold my positions elsewhere to buy this back up by more shares than i sold,YES,YES,True,True,487666.6405,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:57:28.187000+00:00,32nBddmyYFTctiHqRbfnpKqsHMx1,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Interesting, catnee is cashing out at 10%",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T16:55:58.606000+00:00,3xOUxsnjKSRyEMyV1lmWSAB22gm2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"That's a reasonable position, but life can never be perfectly ""fair."" +Here, I would judge Manifold fairly harshly if i",NO,NO,True,True,2003.6588,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T11:30:24.284000+00:00,kLGTRxBkQEZjtTJD6EKFUwWE7HD2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",They won't be wearing a heavy pack or walking in boots; they stand to gain roughly $10k worth of mana; they have 80 beli,YES,YES,True,True,8278.8358,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:39:15.072000+00:00,2LjUvOpTizTV94fSU8yy2okF0BA3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I was too hostile towards you, I’ll admit that. I think a large part of my frustration is the fact that I saw no cries f",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,15600.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:32:11.609000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I hiked grand canyon rim to rim to rim once, which is probably close to 100k steps, but maybe not quite there. I don't p",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T02:26:13.824000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Those do not look like regulation steps.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-29T17:26:11.140000+00:00,eRP4T6gbZhTaIEBhDzs5flwmwFJ3,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Please write me if you consider flipping from YES to NO. For this to happen we need some more willing participants.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T21:43:18.264000+00:00,Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","After being a big NO holder for a long time, I am now a YES holder if I had the mana. fuh didn't try his best at all and",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T18:11:10.494000+00:00,tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Yes, we did think about this. All bailouts are necessarily unfair and create perverse incentives, but Isaac's spending w",NO,YES,False,True,20136.091,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:32:56.925000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No; the current proposal would be to have Isaac's negative balance be a loss that comes out of Manifold's treasury (as w,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:17:52.885000+00:00,KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","🧡🧡🧡 +(I'm holding no but I'm still cheering for you big time)",NO,NO,True,True,82.8091,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T21:34:39.276000+00:00,E2RAZTh0xDR5Xpi6kaVFfxjmLq22,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"badge-by-name, on whatever platform, generally signals to me ""currently favored by the platformholders"", whether by pre-",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:14:16.343000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,That is precisely the point Isaac himself is making.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:55:40.855000+00:00,hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Just take a photo of it every few hours. Post them afterward.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..15b30dcb62291803452a37f953a95fbddc181ca7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-18T20:34:57.446000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Damaged feet could add something like a month of time for recovery and impair your ability to succeed at 100k steps. +Bu",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:38:27.343000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Frequent hiker. r2r2r is like 11,000 feet of elevation gain, and I'd already done 10,000 feet of gain. But I'd never don",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T21:32:11.609000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I hiked grand canyon rim to rim to rim once, which is probably close to 100k steps, but maybe not quite there. I don't p",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T22:13:59.766000+00:00,XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I didn't measure steps but I walked ~44 miles once in my life. I did another big day about a week prior and did a few sh,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-14T04:08:58.287000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I have no stake in this market, but I wanted to thank + for posting this market on his personal goals in public! I love",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-03T02:07:54.851000+00:00,APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",This comment is why you have to read all the comments before betting…,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-02T04:40:02.205000+00:00,xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I meant if he ever did it in the past and if yes why,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-02T04:37:59.467000+00:00,xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I don't want to scroll through the comments, did you ever walk 100k steps in a single day? Why haha?",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T08:15:40.257000+00:00,DOrTcRXwJoMJm2RuntryCsNzyv83,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I would worry the springiness and drop height of vaporflys might cause you to take longer steps which would mean you end,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-04T22:37:13.855000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I use Solomon trail running shoes for both hiking and running, and it's the best of both worlds, they are light and also",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-18T23:55:06.792000+00:00,2yBEYGbiM7XEEuhZeylGbQn5kmU2,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Reading them, sure… but perhaps the real question is whether you’ll understand the key points of all those books by the ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-07-09T02:21:18.499000+00:00,XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,Do you have a list of books you plan to read? Or will it be spontaneously (or a mix)?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-19T12:54:44.316000+00:00,dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),As a former athlete in sports with weight classes I have shed >2 kilos of water and other fluids before a weight in. And,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-23T02:42:48.249000+00:00,XPHdlLs4vTOmkeW6cvDHVRY1Ads2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"Good luck and count your Calories on the holidays, you can go harder training afterwards if you know how much extra outp",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:35:53.657000+00:00,6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),you have to be able to sustain a high tdee for an extended period of time though,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-04T05:34:45.783000+00:00,6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),Depending upon how athletic/active you are 5-10 kgs in a 6 week period is doable pretty easily. I do that every preseaso,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-02T20:40:31.065000+00:00,BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),3 kg a month shouldn't be done lightly but is definitely manageable.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-09-22T05:14:49.740000+00:00,6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),yeah visceral fat is a killer. I'm pretty slim and athletic but have a hard time cutting down that last bit of visceral ,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:44:58.997000+00:00,7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"not sure about that. the manifesto has to be a nothing-burger anyway. ""oh look the weird creepy guy is pretty weird and ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:31:03.183000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"It is pretty likely he will publish it imo. It's free content. If he wanted to take this position, he should have done i",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-06-28T13:19:29.410000+00:00,7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"mrgirl manifesto is finished, he paid someone 1500$ for it, but now doesn't want to publish it to not give Max more atte",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:51:52.824000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"So how exactly does the ""imposter self-report play"" benefit the imposter unless no one believes the report?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:44:54.715000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I would be tempted to go with Lawful Evil, but I don't think Lawful Evil would self-report or advocate for change in a s",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:42:09.860000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Seems consistent with a Lawful Neutral alignment... Follows the rules, do distasteful things and alert the rule makers, ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:34:13.045000+00:00,GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I was just theorizing about this scenario just yesterday or the day before. +https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-th",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-11-10T04:10:06.917000+00:00,BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,will the next wave be before new years?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-26T17:22:58.085000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I mostly agree, but I don't think that's incompatible with the ""outgroup view"".",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-26T08:30:27.475000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Let me add: +This was meant as a general remark, not to argue about firstuserhere +The metrices highly engaging, enterta",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T21:14:08.418000+00:00,cMNsFz6pr3TgU79K6H7fJukUopE3,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"If I may share a ""normal"" user's perspective: +It feels like trustworthy-ish in practice means something like +highly en",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T13:13:18.799000+00:00,uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"It's very likely not an alt, but regardless I will be updating the guidelines to reflect that we consider working with y",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-20T22:38:15.444000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Yeah, the accusation is nonsense. I think you deserve a badge probably",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-20T22:33:35.934000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"which? +not interested +did something bad +hedging +believe getting a badge is much harder than you thought +something e",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-15T07:57:33.217000+00:00,uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Hey, please refrain from posting more comments about this for now. You are not helping and making things easier for me. ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-04-11T09:59:05.013000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I like how the only NO holders are both Acceleration and Botlab, especially because I used to make +markets + to steal ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-03-30T21:12:04.087000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I've recently appreciated their work in adding markets to the ""Please resolve"" group; and their commenting history indic",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-20T22:40:29.331000+00:00,3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"I highly believe that there already has been way more than 25 million COVID cases in China, but that they will never be ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T07:43:30.697000+00:00,2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,points out that resolution criteria of metaculus and manifold question seem different,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-21T22:15:38.554000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"Infections are not cases, so an official here or there can admit to high infection rates but that not be reflected in an",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-19T14:18:04.138000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"nah, you'll be fine. It's better to discuss it than sweep it under the rug.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-12T01:26:34.376000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,Inflation has been low last 6 months and unemployment is at a >50 year low. But crazy can crazy whenever it wants.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:37:43.225000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"even if that is a real effect, the size of the effect on 'people disliking manifold' would be 10,000 times lower than st",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T14:47:03.937000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,there'es something incredibly confused about this claim. Do the nuclear risk markets phrased as 'will a nuclear weapon b,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-30T21:21:45.129000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Levi & Mira pumping the market, just like the OpenAI AGI market +(This is a joke Levi I don't actually know what info yo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-18T01:06:03.572000+00:00,xCyLI5fehphbYouDIa2EIdZWeb42,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,this one should basically always be higher than the other two (later close date),NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-18T00:58:09.052000+00:00,xCyLI5fehphbYouDIa2EIdZWeb42,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How come these two markets are at such different probabilities?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T13:46:01.375000+00:00,YDKVMXbTskWF2lal1pXNSADV3WD2,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Does it need to be in-person to count?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-12T03:37:06.438000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,I think I could bet with you at 24% probability (or twicewhatever you think it's the probabilities) that Lex won't becom,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-09T00:50:23.851000+00:00,CPlXdJKwuZO5BCSwCYx9K2hsjvS2,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Base rates: there are about 29 weeks left in the year and + does about two shows per week, so 50ish slots to fill (assu",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T17:17:41.139000+00:00,7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Does any sort of asynchronous interview count, like an email interview?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T14:00:57.633000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,How would this work? Would you guys talk in Russian? I suppose Putin don't speak English or won't speak English.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2109b55e176875fdee3bc618fe8cefe2b20e43e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,increase,hold,False,True,2638.5913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:35.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as of now, this is the only place mana can go. that said, that is fair. i retract this statement(I can't delete it thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,62997.1735,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-04T01:35:41.189000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"BTW i didn't start the command line book by stephenson that I planned to start ~5d ago, will start today",flip,hold,False,True,36764.5431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T14:21:00.450000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Kinda like the AI apocalypse LOL!!,flip,hold,False,True,680.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:51:15.517000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I feel like the way you are presenting your arguments is very strawman-y - you keep arguing against a system where negat,flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-25T19:31:12.242000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I got a bot tag, temporarily (for a month-ish) and I don't think bots can be trustworthy-ish",flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",increase,increase,True,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False,True,12500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:35:59.678000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,IF YOU ALREADY BOUGHT NO STOP BUYING NO YOU RETARDS,increase,flip,False,True,6833.7966,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,decrease,False,True,10573.6834,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False,True,3159.3391,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,decrease,False,True,15600.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,increase,False,True,13564.7953,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True,True,225.1928,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-28T03:34:43.825000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ +“For the last two",increase,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T04:07:34.158000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"if you're resting feet from your 3 long long walks, you can still cycle, and you should eat a caloric excess on the day ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T00:12:45.802000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm very curious, does anybody ever make mana by taking out loans? 15-20% in three months seems like a massive rate. I d",increase,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False,True,607.5525,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:42:21.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"""Exploiting hacks"" was not to benefit me in any way. I didn't make trades using the additional mana. I aggregated it int",flip,flip,True,True,750.5876,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:24:37.835000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm the 5th highest NO holder, if I sell, the price jumps back to 90+% :)",increase,flip,False,True,46855.8386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-20T14:18:46.155000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Why bother reading fiction for entertainment when the real life is far far more dramatic? +The plot thickens.",flip,flip,True,True,35810.1284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False,True,385.4067,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-18T03:23:47.006000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"As someone who once started a (successful) weight loss journey at an extremely similar weight/height, I personally found",flip,hold,False,True,630.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:07:07.411000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,And I say this as a person holding an old yes bet lol,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True,True,36400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T09:34:37.306000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,The community calls them manifestos because destiny put days in making a document that details his points on things ! N,increase,increase,True,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True,True,52829.1823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T04:45:35.938000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Firstuserhere should do the walk in the area where my grandfather grew up as a kid. He told me that when he walked to an,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False,True,18355.8211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,flip,False,True,16195.7275,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T06:41:15.918000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It will take lots of Mana to move it below 50,increase,increase,True,True,2430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:51:28.613000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"On the other hand, I will pledge 100k mana immediately to charity",increase,decrease,False,True,64573.1773,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:29:15.634000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","screenshot? +The plot thickens. I first interpreted this as confirmation that today’s the day but that he then un-liked ",flip,flip,True,True,2910.8335,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-12T21:51:40.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The most i've previously walked in a day is roughly 41.6 km or 25.8 miles (corresponds to about 53000 ish steps. It was ,increase,decrease,False,True,318426.4699,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T06:55:30.007000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'm happy to offer some short term loans to anyone who needs more funds.,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-20T19:08:18.529000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"They DID NOT report additional .06M cases, they reported .06M DEATHS. HUGE DIFFERENCE.",increase,flip,False,True,12623.5454,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,increase,False,True,1430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",flip,increase,False,True,623.1677,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,flip,True,True,885.3391,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-02T12:25:02.328000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"It's certainly doable but with a tight margin. A 3 hr walk, 3 days -> 9hrs, or 1 audiobook on average. 4.5 weeks left, t",flip,hold,False,True,35547.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-30T09:18:57.187000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hoping December has some very long walks lined up for you + +You're going to need to train those feet and legs on tole",flip,flip,True,True,507.1332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,flip,False,True,31.7107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-11T16:16:49.268000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Betting YES doesn't actually mean he is sure that will happen. This can be the way to get more attention to the market. ",flip,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False,True,779.5394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False,True,2362.6997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T18:30:47.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","got busy with work but did do roughly 20k. Its about the training process that'll help with doing this challenge, not ne",increase,hold,False,True,318416.4699,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,flip,False,True,185627.3121,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True,True,2103.1422,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,hold,True,True,4427.3836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T01:24:11.461000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,There are 13 days left for this to happen,increase,hold,False,True,3905.9686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False,True,18063.8817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False,True,3284.0382,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:39:14.532000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",cares only about the Mana. No humanity. Take some well earned rest FUH,increase,flip,False,True,12295.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False,True,1883.4638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False,True,336148.8078,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,flip,False,True,3113.1819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:25:27.736000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the whale NO holders can sell at any time without changing the resolution for the small minnows it doesn't matter if the,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True,True,194220.1258,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T19:02:22.049000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"All I had to do was nothing. I should have paid + to make decisions for my position for 12 hours",increase,decrease,False,True,14420.5132,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T10:05:43.779000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you're not wrong, this is something I've felt too. Haven't quantified it by experimenting the same route or same time wi",increase,hold,False,True,270577.9964,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,increase,False,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,increase,False,True,340.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:33:08.528000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,when I look at the list of markets either sorted by trending or unsorted it’s full of your markets. They seem to be on t,increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:58:55.899000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,oh its okay i actually know him,increase,hold,False,True,87.8983,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T09:47:47.911000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"As I said, it is not my account. i feel no need to defend myself.",flip,decrease,False,True,750.5876,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False,True,487.4248,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,flip,hold,False,True,35672.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T21:01:50.852000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The problem here is the original question from the ACX prediction contest is ambiguous. +But yeah, I agree that having s",flip,hold,False,True,2748.6308,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False,True,4936.3081,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,increase,False,True,44350.6161,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False,True,3740.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,increase,False,True,12500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",flip,flip,True,True,715.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False,True,624.7448,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..764a3a3b14cbf782e25f7689a65b84d1d0433639 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,decrease,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,hold,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,decrease,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,decrease,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,decrease,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,hold,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,hold,True +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,hold,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,hold,True +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,decrease,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,hold,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,decrease,True +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,hold,True +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,hold,True +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,decrease,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..945fddaf519d7d2e3f1c3c918884f1082dedfed3 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",flip,flip,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,flip,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-30T09:18:57.187000+00:00,"Hoping December has some very long walks lined up for you + +You're going to need to train those feet and legs on tole",flip,flip,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,hold,True +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,flip,False +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,flip,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T06:55:30.007000+00:00,I'm happy to offer some short term loans to anyone who needs more funds.,flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-11T16:16:49.268000+00:00,"Betting YES doesn't actually mean he is sure that will happen. This can be the way to get more attention to the market. ",flip,hold,False +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-02T12:25:02.328000+00:00,"It's certainly doable but with a tight margin. A 3 hr walk, 3 days -> 9hrs, or 1 audiobook on average. 4.5 weeks left, t",flip,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,flip,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:42:21.397000+00:00,"""Exploiting hacks"" was not to benefit me in any way. I didn't make trades using the additional mana. I aggregated it int",flip,flip,True +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-20T14:18:46.155000+00:00,"Why bother reading fiction for entertainment when the real life is far far more dramatic? +The plot thickens.",flip,flip,True +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,hold,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,hold,True +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:51:15.517000+00:00,I feel like the way you are presenting your arguments is very strawman-y - you keep arguing against a system where negat,flip,hold,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,flip,False +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,flip,False +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T04:45:35.938000+00:00,Firstuserhere should do the walk in the area where my grandfather grew up as a kid. He told me that when he walked to an,flip,flip,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,hold,True +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-18T03:23:47.006000+00:00,"As someone who once started a (successful) weight loss journey at an extremely similar weight/height, I personally found",flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T09:47:47.911000+00:00,"As I said, it is not my account. i feel no need to defend myself.",flip,hold,False +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,flip,hold,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T21:01:50.852000+00:00,"The problem here is the original question from the ACX prediction contest is ambiguous. +But yeah, I agree that having s",flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,hold,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T14:21:00.450000+00:00,Kinda like the AI apocalypse LOL!!,flip,flip,True +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-04T01:35:41.189000+00:00,"BTW i didn't start the command line book by stephenson that I planned to start ~5d ago, will start today",flip,hold,False +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-25T19:31:12.242000+00:00,"I got a bot tag, temporarily (for a month-ish) and I don't think bots can be trustworthy-ish",flip,hold,False +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,flip,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:29:15.634000+00:00,"screenshot? +The plot thickens. I first interpreted this as confirmation that today’s the day but that he then un-liked ",flip,flip,True +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,hold,True +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",flip,flip,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,hold,True +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2109b55e176875fdee3bc618fe8cefe2b20e43e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,increase,hold,False,True,2638.5913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:35.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as of now, this is the only place mana can go. that said, that is fair. i retract this statement(I can't delete it thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,62997.1735,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-04T01:35:41.189000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"BTW i didn't start the command line book by stephenson that I planned to start ~5d ago, will start today",flip,hold,False,True,36764.5431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T14:21:00.450000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Kinda like the AI apocalypse LOL!!,flip,hold,False,True,680.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:51:15.517000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I feel like the way you are presenting your arguments is very strawman-y - you keep arguing against a system where negat,flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-25T19:31:12.242000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I got a bot tag, temporarily (for a month-ish) and I don't think bots can be trustworthy-ish",flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",increase,increase,True,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False,True,12500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:35:59.678000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,IF YOU ALREADY BOUGHT NO STOP BUYING NO YOU RETARDS,increase,flip,False,True,6833.7966,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,decrease,False,True,10573.6834,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False,True,3159.3391,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,decrease,False,True,15600.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,increase,False,True,13564.7953,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True,True,225.1928,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-28T03:34:43.825000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ +“For the last two",increase,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T04:07:34.158000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"if you're resting feet from your 3 long long walks, you can still cycle, and you should eat a caloric excess on the day ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T00:12:45.802000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm very curious, does anybody ever make mana by taking out loans? 15-20% in three months seems like a massive rate. I d",increase,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False,True,607.5525,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:42:21.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"""Exploiting hacks"" was not to benefit me in any way. I didn't make trades using the additional mana. I aggregated it int",flip,flip,True,True,750.5876,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:24:37.835000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm the 5th highest NO holder, if I sell, the price jumps back to 90+% :)",increase,flip,False,True,46855.8386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-20T14:18:46.155000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Why bother reading fiction for entertainment when the real life is far far more dramatic? +The plot thickens.",flip,flip,True,True,35810.1284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False,True,385.4067,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-18T03:23:47.006000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"As someone who once started a (successful) weight loss journey at an extremely similar weight/height, I personally found",flip,hold,False,True,630.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:07:07.411000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,And I say this as a person holding an old yes bet lol,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True,True,36400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T09:34:37.306000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,The community calls them manifestos because destiny put days in making a document that details his points on things ! N,increase,increase,True,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True,True,52829.1823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T04:45:35.938000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Firstuserhere should do the walk in the area where my grandfather grew up as a kid. He told me that when he walked to an,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False,True,18355.8211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,flip,False,True,16195.7275,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T06:41:15.918000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It will take lots of Mana to move it below 50,increase,increase,True,True,2430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:51:28.613000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"On the other hand, I will pledge 100k mana immediately to charity",increase,decrease,False,True,64573.1773,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:29:15.634000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","screenshot? +The plot thickens. I first interpreted this as confirmation that today’s the day but that he then un-liked ",flip,flip,True,True,2910.8335,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-12T21:51:40.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The most i've previously walked in a day is roughly 41.6 km or 25.8 miles (corresponds to about 53000 ish steps. It was ,increase,decrease,False,True,318426.4699,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T06:55:30.007000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'm happy to offer some short term loans to anyone who needs more funds.,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-20T19:08:18.529000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"They DID NOT report additional .06M cases, they reported .06M DEATHS. HUGE DIFFERENCE.",increase,flip,False,True,12623.5454,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,increase,False,True,1430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",flip,increase,False,True,623.1677,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,flip,True,True,885.3391,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-02T12:25:02.328000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"It's certainly doable but with a tight margin. A 3 hr walk, 3 days -> 9hrs, or 1 audiobook on average. 4.5 weeks left, t",flip,hold,False,True,35547.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-30T09:18:57.187000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hoping December has some very long walks lined up for you + +You're going to need to train those feet and legs on tole",flip,flip,True,True,507.1332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,flip,False,True,31.7107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-11T16:16:49.268000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Betting YES doesn't actually mean he is sure that will happen. This can be the way to get more attention to the market. ",flip,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False,True,779.5394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False,True,2362.6997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T18:30:47.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","got busy with work but did do roughly 20k. Its about the training process that'll help with doing this challenge, not ne",increase,hold,False,True,318416.4699,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,flip,False,True,185627.3121,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True,True,2103.1422,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,hold,True,True,4427.3836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T01:24:11.461000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,There are 13 days left for this to happen,increase,hold,False,True,3905.9686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False,True,18063.8817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False,True,3284.0382,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:39:14.532000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",cares only about the Mana. No humanity. Take some well earned rest FUH,increase,flip,False,True,12295.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False,True,1883.4638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False,True,336148.8078,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,flip,False,True,3113.1819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:25:27.736000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the whale NO holders can sell at any time without changing the resolution for the small minnows it doesn't matter if the,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True,True,194220.1258,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T19:02:22.049000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"All I had to do was nothing. I should have paid + to make decisions for my position for 12 hours",increase,decrease,False,True,14420.5132,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T10:05:43.779000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you're not wrong, this is something I've felt too. Haven't quantified it by experimenting the same route or same time wi",increase,hold,False,True,270577.9964,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,increase,False,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,increase,False,True,340.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:33:08.528000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,when I look at the list of markets either sorted by trending or unsorted it’s full of your markets. They seem to be on t,increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:58:55.899000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,oh its okay i actually know him,increase,hold,False,True,87.8983,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T09:47:47.911000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"As I said, it is not my account. i feel no need to defend myself.",flip,decrease,False,True,750.5876,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False,True,487.4248,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,flip,hold,False,True,35672.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T21:01:50.852000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The problem here is the original question from the ACX prediction contest is ambiguous. +But yeah, I agree that having s",flip,hold,False,True,2748.6308,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False,True,4936.3081,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,increase,False,True,44350.6161,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False,True,3740.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,increase,False,True,12500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",flip,flip,True,True,715.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False,True,624.7448,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2109b55e176875fdee3bc618fe8cefe2b20e43e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,increase,hold,False,True,2638.5913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:35.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as of now, this is the only place mana can go. that said, that is fair. i retract this statement(I can't delete it thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,62997.1735,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-04T01:35:41.189000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"BTW i didn't start the command line book by stephenson that I planned to start ~5d ago, will start today",flip,hold,False,True,36764.5431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T14:21:00.450000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Kinda like the AI apocalypse LOL!!,flip,hold,False,True,680.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:51:15.517000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I feel like the way you are presenting your arguments is very strawman-y - you keep arguing against a system where negat,flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-25T19:31:12.242000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I got a bot tag, temporarily (for a month-ish) and I don't think bots can be trustworthy-ish",flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",increase,increase,True,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False,True,12500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:35:59.678000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,IF YOU ALREADY BOUGHT NO STOP BUYING NO YOU RETARDS,increase,flip,False,True,6833.7966,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,decrease,False,True,10573.6834,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False,True,3159.3391,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,decrease,False,True,15600.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,increase,False,True,13564.7953,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True,True,225.1928,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-28T03:34:43.825000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ +“For the last two",increase,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T04:07:34.158000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"if you're resting feet from your 3 long long walks, you can still cycle, and you should eat a caloric excess on the day ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T00:12:45.802000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm very curious, does anybody ever make mana by taking out loans? 15-20% in three months seems like a massive rate. I d",increase,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False,True,607.5525,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:42:21.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"""Exploiting hacks"" was not to benefit me in any way. I didn't make trades using the additional mana. I aggregated it int",flip,flip,True,True,750.5876,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:24:37.835000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm the 5th highest NO holder, if I sell, the price jumps back to 90+% :)",increase,flip,False,True,46855.8386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-20T14:18:46.155000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Why bother reading fiction for entertainment when the real life is far far more dramatic? +The plot thickens.",flip,flip,True,True,35810.1284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False,True,385.4067,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-18T03:23:47.006000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"As someone who once started a (successful) weight loss journey at an extremely similar weight/height, I personally found",flip,hold,False,True,630.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:07:07.411000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,And I say this as a person holding an old yes bet lol,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True,True,36400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T09:34:37.306000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,The community calls them manifestos because destiny put days in making a document that details his points on things ! N,increase,increase,True,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True,True,52829.1823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T04:45:35.938000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Firstuserhere should do the walk in the area where my grandfather grew up as a kid. He told me that when he walked to an,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False,True,18355.8211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,flip,False,True,16195.7275,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T06:41:15.918000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It will take lots of Mana to move it below 50,increase,increase,True,True,2430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:51:28.613000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"On the other hand, I will pledge 100k mana immediately to charity",increase,decrease,False,True,64573.1773,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:29:15.634000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","screenshot? +The plot thickens. I first interpreted this as confirmation that today’s the day but that he then un-liked ",flip,flip,True,True,2910.8335,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-12T21:51:40.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The most i've previously walked in a day is roughly 41.6 km or 25.8 miles (corresponds to about 53000 ish steps. It was ,increase,decrease,False,True,318426.4699,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T06:55:30.007000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'm happy to offer some short term loans to anyone who needs more funds.,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-20T19:08:18.529000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"They DID NOT report additional .06M cases, they reported .06M DEATHS. HUGE DIFFERENCE.",increase,flip,False,True,12623.5454,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,increase,False,True,1430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",flip,increase,False,True,623.1677,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,flip,True,True,885.3391,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-02T12:25:02.328000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"It's certainly doable but with a tight margin. A 3 hr walk, 3 days -> 9hrs, or 1 audiobook on average. 4.5 weeks left, t",flip,hold,False,True,35547.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-30T09:18:57.187000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hoping December has some very long walks lined up for you + +You're going to need to train those feet and legs on tole",flip,flip,True,True,507.1332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,flip,False,True,31.7107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-11T16:16:49.268000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Betting YES doesn't actually mean he is sure that will happen. This can be the way to get more attention to the market. ",flip,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False,True,779.5394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False,True,2362.6997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T18:30:47.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","got busy with work but did do roughly 20k. Its about the training process that'll help with doing this challenge, not ne",increase,hold,False,True,318416.4699,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,flip,False,True,185627.3121,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True,True,2103.1422,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,hold,True,True,4427.3836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T01:24:11.461000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,There are 13 days left for this to happen,increase,hold,False,True,3905.9686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False,True,18063.8817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False,True,3284.0382,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:39:14.532000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",cares only about the Mana. No humanity. Take some well earned rest FUH,increase,flip,False,True,12295.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False,True,1883.4638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False,True,336148.8078,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,flip,False,True,3113.1819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:25:27.736000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the whale NO holders can sell at any time without changing the resolution for the small minnows it doesn't matter if the,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True,True,194220.1258,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T19:02:22.049000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"All I had to do was nothing. I should have paid + to make decisions for my position for 12 hours",increase,decrease,False,True,14420.5132,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T10:05:43.779000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you're not wrong, this is something I've felt too. Haven't quantified it by experimenting the same route or same time wi",increase,hold,False,True,270577.9964,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,increase,False,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,increase,False,True,340.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:33:08.528000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,when I look at the list of markets either sorted by trending or unsorted it’s full of your markets. They seem to be on t,increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:58:55.899000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,oh its okay i actually know him,increase,hold,False,True,87.8983,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T09:47:47.911000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"As I said, it is not my account. i feel no need to defend myself.",flip,decrease,False,True,750.5876,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False,True,487.4248,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,flip,hold,False,True,35672.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T21:01:50.852000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The problem here is the original question from the ACX prediction contest is ambiguous. +But yeah, I agree that having s",flip,hold,False,True,2748.6308,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False,True,4936.3081,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,increase,False,True,44350.6161,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False,True,3740.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,increase,False,True,12500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",flip,flip,True,True,715.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False,True,624.7448,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2109b55e176875fdee3bc618fe8cefe2b20e43e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,increase,hold,False,True,2638.5913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:35.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as of now, this is the only place mana can go. that said, that is fair. i retract this statement(I can't delete it thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,62997.1735,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-04T01:35:41.189000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"BTW i didn't start the command line book by stephenson that I planned to start ~5d ago, will start today",flip,hold,False,True,36764.5431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T14:21:00.450000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Kinda like the AI apocalypse LOL!!,flip,hold,False,True,680.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:51:15.517000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I feel like the way you are presenting your arguments is very strawman-y - you keep arguing against a system where negat,flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-25T19:31:12.242000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I got a bot tag, temporarily (for a month-ish) and I don't think bots can be trustworthy-ish",flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",increase,increase,True,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False,True,12500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:35:59.678000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,IF YOU ALREADY BOUGHT NO STOP BUYING NO YOU RETARDS,increase,flip,False,True,6833.7966,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,decrease,False,True,10573.6834,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False,True,3159.3391,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,decrease,False,True,15600.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,increase,False,True,13564.7953,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True,True,225.1928,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-28T03:34:43.825000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ +“For the last two",increase,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T04:07:34.158000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"if you're resting feet from your 3 long long walks, you can still cycle, and you should eat a caloric excess on the day ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T00:12:45.802000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm very curious, does anybody ever make mana by taking out loans? 15-20% in three months seems like a massive rate. I d",increase,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False,True,607.5525,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:42:21.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"""Exploiting hacks"" was not to benefit me in any way. I didn't make trades using the additional mana. I aggregated it int",flip,flip,True,True,750.5876,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:24:37.835000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm the 5th highest NO holder, if I sell, the price jumps back to 90+% :)",increase,flip,False,True,46855.8386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-20T14:18:46.155000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Why bother reading fiction for entertainment when the real life is far far more dramatic? +The plot thickens.",flip,flip,True,True,35810.1284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False,True,385.4067,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-18T03:23:47.006000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"As someone who once started a (successful) weight loss journey at an extremely similar weight/height, I personally found",flip,hold,False,True,630.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:07:07.411000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,And I say this as a person holding an old yes bet lol,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True,True,36400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T09:34:37.306000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,The community calls them manifestos because destiny put days in making a document that details his points on things ! N,increase,increase,True,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True,True,52829.1823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T04:45:35.938000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Firstuserhere should do the walk in the area where my grandfather grew up as a kid. He told me that when he walked to an,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False,True,18355.8211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,flip,False,True,16195.7275,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T06:41:15.918000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It will take lots of Mana to move it below 50,increase,increase,True,True,2430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:51:28.613000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"On the other hand, I will pledge 100k mana immediately to charity",increase,decrease,False,True,64573.1773,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:29:15.634000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","screenshot? +The plot thickens. I first interpreted this as confirmation that today’s the day but that he then un-liked ",flip,flip,True,True,2910.8335,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-12T21:51:40.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The most i've previously walked in a day is roughly 41.6 km or 25.8 miles (corresponds to about 53000 ish steps. It was ,increase,decrease,False,True,318426.4699,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T06:55:30.007000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'm happy to offer some short term loans to anyone who needs more funds.,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-20T19:08:18.529000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"They DID NOT report additional .06M cases, they reported .06M DEATHS. HUGE DIFFERENCE.",increase,flip,False,True,12623.5454,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,increase,False,True,1430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",flip,increase,False,True,623.1677,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,flip,True,True,885.3391,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-02T12:25:02.328000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"It's certainly doable but with a tight margin. A 3 hr walk, 3 days -> 9hrs, or 1 audiobook on average. 4.5 weeks left, t",flip,hold,False,True,35547.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-30T09:18:57.187000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hoping December has some very long walks lined up for you + +You're going to need to train those feet and legs on tole",flip,flip,True,True,507.1332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,flip,False,True,31.7107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-11T16:16:49.268000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Betting YES doesn't actually mean he is sure that will happen. This can be the way to get more attention to the market. ",flip,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False,True,779.5394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False,True,2362.6997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T18:30:47.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","got busy with work but did do roughly 20k. Its about the training process that'll help with doing this challenge, not ne",increase,hold,False,True,318416.4699,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,flip,False,True,185627.3121,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True,True,2103.1422,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,hold,True,True,4427.3836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T01:24:11.461000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,There are 13 days left for this to happen,increase,hold,False,True,3905.9686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False,True,18063.8817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False,True,3284.0382,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:39:14.532000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",cares only about the Mana. No humanity. Take some well earned rest FUH,increase,flip,False,True,12295.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False,True,1883.4638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False,True,336148.8078,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,flip,False,True,3113.1819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:25:27.736000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the whale NO holders can sell at any time without changing the resolution for the small minnows it doesn't matter if the,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True,True,194220.1258,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T19:02:22.049000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"All I had to do was nothing. I should have paid + to make decisions for my position for 12 hours",increase,decrease,False,True,14420.5132,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T10:05:43.779000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you're not wrong, this is something I've felt too. Haven't quantified it by experimenting the same route or same time wi",increase,hold,False,True,270577.9964,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,increase,False,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,increase,False,True,340.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:33:08.528000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,when I look at the list of markets either sorted by trending or unsorted it’s full of your markets. They seem to be on t,increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:58:55.899000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,oh its okay i actually know him,increase,hold,False,True,87.8983,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T09:47:47.911000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"As I said, it is not my account. i feel no need to defend myself.",flip,decrease,False,True,750.5876,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False,True,487.4248,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,flip,hold,False,True,35672.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T21:01:50.852000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The problem here is the original question from the ACX prediction contest is ambiguous. +But yeah, I agree that having s",flip,hold,False,True,2748.6308,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False,True,4936.3081,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,increase,False,True,44350.6161,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False,True,3740.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,increase,False,True,12500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",flip,flip,True,True,715.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False,True,624.7448,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..858fcde8000722a24a29c732dbaf7a54e75b96f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,125 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T02:39:25.248000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"CNN has also updated to 22 dead +https://lite.cnn.com/2023/10/25/us/lewiston-maine-shooting/index.html",hold,increase,False,True,3534.1079,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,increase,hold,False,True,2638.5913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:27:48.798000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"There is currently some arbitraging possibility betting NO here and in the ""lose"" markets : +https://manifold.markets/Z",increase,hold,False,True,9.5607,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-08-29T22:57:27.114000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"""In the Beginning was the Command Line"" is about novella length, and calling novellas books seems normal. I guess that's",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-18T05:40:54.201000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","so he's not done it this weekend, so he's doing it during a work week?",flip,hold,False,True,707.1677,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T23:03:55.135000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"at this close the minnows have points 949 (-alts undetermined) +at this close the whales have points of 555 + 13to15 = ",flip,increase,False,True,53.3105,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-19T13:38:29.969000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"unlikely. The best I can do rn is keep my current pace and do 5 books a month, very moderate. +23 done + 2-3 ongoing pu",flip,decrease,False,True,37313.5431,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False,True,779.5394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",increase,increase,True,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False,True,12500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-01T08:58:11.566000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"I've ordered a weighing scale, which should arrive tomorrow. So far, I've not lost any weight",increase,hold,False,True,18327.1646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-03-09T04:01:18.744000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,exactly. Who exactly is going to kill 20 people to make a few thousand Mana?,hold,flip,False,True,91.6903,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T23:30:54.264000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",""" +for an achievement people look at for a second and then move on with the rest of their day"" +He looks at it for 18+ h",flip,flip,True,True,742.843,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,decrease,False,True,15600.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,increase,False,True,13564.7953,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-10-13T03:00:13.379000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I'll make the positive case for +. +He's been a longtime and honourable user of Manifold who resolves his markets faith",flip,increase,False,True,38755.8841,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-28T03:34:43.825000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ +“For the last two",increase,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T01:24:11.461000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,There are 13 days left for this to happen,increase,hold,False,True,3905.9686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T00:12:45.802000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm very curious, does anybody ever make mana by taking out loans? 15-20% in three months seems like a massive rate. I d",increase,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False,True,607.5525,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T19:11:33.700000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,👀 definitely didn’t see this coming. But I am here for it!!,flip,hold,False,True,3331.5602,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T14:14:17.336000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Only bailing out users who spent a large amount of money in absolute terms (in the 1000s) on mana doesn't seem particula,increase,decrease,False,True,2408.3945,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-14T20:06:31.689000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",have you been practising how short and quick your steps can be while the Garmin still registers the steps reliably? Coul,flip,flip,True,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False,True,385.4067,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:22:00.461000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Wait right i copied the wrong thing ty,flip,hold,False,True,2324.3994,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:06:31.078000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"agree with this - publish doesn't mean write and recite imo, it means make a document available for reading.",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True,True,36400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:37:17.284000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"anyways, i set up a limit order at 29% if you want to cash out a bit",increase,hold,False,True,2308.1018,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True,True,52829.1823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:10:57.823000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"Your previous good activity certainly is a positive factor too. +I don't know what the standards for the badge are, but ",flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False,True,18355.8211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,flip,False,True,16195.7275,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False,True,4936.3081,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T06:41:15.918000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It will take lots of Mana to move it below 50,increase,increase,True,True,2430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T08:36:08.818000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,How many invalid accounts (i.e. accounts that don't matter) do you estimate are there atm?,increase,hold,False,True,10197.2986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T01:21:55.830000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","did your endurance involve mere cardio or did it involve actual miles on foot, because without exceptional professionali",flip,decrease,False,True,272.1828,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-12T21:51:40.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The most i've previously walked in a day is roughly 41.6 km or 25.8 miles (corresponds to about 53000 ish steps. It was ,increase,decrease,False,True,318426.4699,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T06:48:51.410000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","They said they were bribed to stop, that's not a ""failure"".",flip,flip,True,True,1601.7387,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:43:22.673000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Okay given the manifold staff comment, I bet they just cancel this now. +People should maybe cash out big profits if t",hold,flip,False,True,10573.6834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T10:05:43.779000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you're not wrong, this is something I've felt too. Haven't quantified it by experimenting the same route or same time wi",increase,hold,False,True,270577.9964,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,increase,False,True,1430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False,True,3159.3391,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:11:33.352000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I can't wait until it's over. I thought i'd never cheer the bitcoin miners to work faster.,flip,hold,False,True,9203.832,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-04-27T18:50:54.400000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,the original wording can be found in my comments below.,flip,hold,False,True,2391.8438,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T02:05:38.639000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"oh no the legendary + has joined the whales",flip,flip,True,True,53.9567,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,flip,False,True,31.7107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T23:28:14.057000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"That's reasonable, and there was a new set of entrees today, for example, and its totally fair to not include firstuserh",flip,decrease,False,True,750.5876,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,flip,True,True,885.3391,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False,True,2362.6997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T18:30:47.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","got busy with work but did do roughly 20k. Its about the training process that'll help with doing this challenge, not ne",increase,hold,False,True,318416.4699,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:51:59.855000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,This web page makes my computer lag lol,hold,hold,True,True,1831.1714,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True,True,2103.1422,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:51:54.656000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"In particular, if I recall correctly, Scott's full rules had a specific clarification that all questions should be under",hold,hold,True,True,7009.3261,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-03-09T22:56:12.611000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"the lefty wars are done, hes banned from twitch, and hes learned to stay away from trans issues to avoid getting nuked. ",increase,hold,False,True,1670.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False,True,18063.8817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False,True,3284.0382,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:39:14.532000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",cares only about the Mana. No humanity. Take some well earned rest FUH,increase,flip,False,True,12295.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False,True,1883.4638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False,True,336148.8078,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-01T05:12:55.642000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"You know, except for all the COVID and all. 😅",hold,hold,True,True,247.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-10-02T20:03:57.603000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),Anecdote: I reached a maximum of 105-6 kgs(!!) ~6 years ago while I was preparing for math olympiads and just sitting an,increase,increase,True,True,18327.1646,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True,True,194220.1258,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T02:51:13.653000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I'm out. I sold completely. To whoever ate my 20,000 mana position, I only have one thing to say to you.... +..... +Can ",increase,flip,False,True,14419.5132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T06:46:30.718000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If he didn't actually keep the money, it doesn't matter if he exploited it since he didn't gain advantage. The reason to",increase,hold,False,True,148258.1317,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:30:53.680000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"LMAO, you really just want to live in an alternative reality. It should be very clear by now China will be reporting cas",hold,increase,False,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,increase,False,True,340.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T00:13:24.045000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Well he didn't expect it to close instantly. He just needed to be in a winning position at that time just in case. Maybe,increase,decrease,False,True,2897.0882,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:15:49.544000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,What’s the element you’re protesting?,increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True,True,225.1928,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False,True,487.4248,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-08-05T20:55:26.719000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Update: finished reading +Where the crawdads sing +! great book! Some people may not like the overly descriptive style ",flip,hold,False,True,22748.4533,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T01:21:39.501000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Isaac has a balance of negative 2.5 million. It’s over.,flip,flip,True,True,65433.2152,FLIP,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-05T00:59:31.631000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't think it's valuable to the forecasting community overall whether traders are good at predicting one way or anoth,hold,hold,True,True,4427.3836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,increase,False,True,44350.6161,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False,True,3740.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T21:26:29.164000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","-- Ideally I suggest using whatever footwear you used on your last attempt, especially if your feet didn't feel particul",flip,hold,False,True,3130.8064,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,increase,False,True,12500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:14:36.418000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I'm not convinced you would actually - there are a decent number of authors who resolve markets well and don't do anythi,flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T00:35:45.394000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Taking part in the resolvathon would basically be like a moderating apprenticeship under Joshua. There's no time like th,hold,increase,False,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False,True,624.7448,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2109b55e176875fdee3bc618fe8cefe2b20e43e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-10-26T03:20:32.466000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"I consider same perp, day and city to count as a single incident.",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T20:17:51.121000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I was thinking of doing a 150K one in 24 hours but don't have a treadmill at the moment (messing with weather and other ,decrease,increase,False,True,320.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-04T14:51:24.958000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,got it got it - my optimism clouded my judgment and skipped right past the weight column. I'm still pulling for you!,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T04:15:57.967000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",How long did the 50k effort take?,increase,hold,False,True,2638.5913,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T11:16:54.491000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,No? Minnows are recruiting by going to forums and people bet on their own will or dont if they dont wanna. That's why mi,increase,hold,False,True,99.5638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T03:39:35.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"as of now, this is the only place mana can go. that said, that is fair. i retract this statement(I can't delete it thoug",increase,decrease,False,True,62997.1735,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-09-04T01:35:41.189000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"BTW i didn't start the command line book by stephenson that I planned to start ~5d ago, will start today",flip,hold,False,True,36764.5431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T16:54:08.727000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","That's correct. It's this guy's first ever comment on the site, just like the other guy, and it's clear he's trolling. T",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-05T14:21:00.450000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Kinda like the AI apocalypse LOL!!,flip,hold,False,True,680.5117,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-14T22:51:15.517000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,I feel like the way you are presenting your arguments is very strawman-y - you keep arguing against a system where negat,flip,hold,False,True,1310.7417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-05-25T19:31:12.242000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"I got a bot tag, temporarily (for a month-ish) and I don't think bots can be trustworthy-ish",flip,decrease,False,True,1000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-29T23:00:34.148000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I have 26k YES shares, doubt I'm bullshitting 😉",increase,increase,True,True,3618.9662,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-21T21:21:33.184000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",...are you going to enter those manually any time soon?,decrease,hold,False,True,12500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T21:35:59.678000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,IF YOU ALREADY BOUGHT NO STOP BUYING NO YOU RETARDS,increase,flip,False,True,6833.7966,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:06:28.863000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,I know. Everyone who made money trading this will be furious if they lose the gains. I dont see a good way out for man,hold,decrease,False,True,10573.6834,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T08:03:37.975000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","He's posted some cryptic stuff over in the 40k today market: +https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-firstuserhere-walk-ove",flip,hold,False,True,3159.3391,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:08:21.722000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Do you mean he would get his mana back? Once he placed the massive bet using real money, he was never going to get any r",hold,decrease,False,True,15600.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-22T22:36:02.686000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Imagine if Lex comes in here and just goes all in on YES 😂,hold,increase,False,True,13564.7953,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T04:07:53.431000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I know! But for some reason he seemed to have a lot more under his belt,flip,flip,True,True,225.1928,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-28T03:34:43.825000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ +“For the last two",increase,flip,False,True,120.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T00:01:36.507000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Having hiked the entire pacific crest trail, a 100k step day is incredibly difficult. I think my longest day was 80k(ish",decrease,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-12T19:37:43.485000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","(Hi!) +My median pace was around 7200 steps per hour around a month ago, but that of course will drop over time during ",hold,increase,False,True,440377.5264,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-07T04:07:34.158000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"if you're resting feet from your 3 long long walks, you can still cycle, and you should eat a caloric excess on the day ",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-20T00:12:45.802000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I'm very curious, does anybody ever make mana by taking out loans? 15-20% in three months seems like a massive rate. I d",increase,hold,False,True,788.3441,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T07:27:13.473000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","10k loan, 3% interest for a month?",decrease,hold,False,True,607.5525,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-06-28T14:42:21.397000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"""Exploiting hacks"" was not to benefit me in any way. I didn't make trades using the additional mana. I aggregated it int",flip,flip,True,True,750.5876,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:24:37.835000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"I'm the 5th highest NO holder, if I sell, the price jumps back to 90+% :)",increase,flip,False,True,46855.8386,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:44:15.211000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"he wouldn't be respected as a market creator, but he would get his money back",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-11-20T14:18:46.155000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"Why bother reading fiction for entertainment when the real life is far far more dramatic? +The plot thickens.",flip,flip,True,True,35810.1284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T15:58:09.503000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,fascinating slowing sine wave on the graph though.,decrease,hold,False,True,385.4067,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-11-18T03:23:47.006000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"As someone who once started a (successful) weight loss journey at an extremely similar weight/height, I personally found",flip,hold,False,True,630.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-21T23:07:07.411000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,And I say this as a person holding an old yes bet lol,increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T01:55:03.672000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Did blasé dracaena create the meme?,hold,hold,True,True,36400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-22T09:34:37.306000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,The community calls them manifestos because destiny put days in making a document that details his points on things ! N,increase,increase,True,True,1300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-28T18:48:31.898000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"If self-referental markets were tagged as such, it would be possible to have separate leader-boards where self-referenti",hold,hold,True,True,52829.1823,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-11T04:45:35.938000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Firstuserhere should do the walk in the area where my grandfather grew up as a kid. He told me that when he walked to an,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:43:46.695000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","How late was the start? It would be cool if the + 's graph could include that",decrease,hold,False,True,18355.8211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:51:54.168000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Go ahead and create a market on whether the sun will rise tomorrow. I will bet on it. You can try misresolving it, see i",decrease,flip,False,True,16195.7275,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:40:33.188000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I get the sense I now know what it was like to tune in for the moon landing +this market is like a modern space race",increase,increase,True,True,300.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-20T09:10:40.014000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,I'd tip you for the write up if I could,flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T06:41:15.918000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",It will take lots of Mana to move it below 50,increase,increase,True,True,2430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T07:51:28.613000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"On the other hand, I will pledge 100k mana immediately to charity",increase,decrease,False,True,64573.1773,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-16T17:29:15.634000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","screenshot? +The plot thickens. I first interpreted this as confirmation that today’s the day but that he then un-liked ",flip,flip,True,True,2910.8335,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T03:18:00.963000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You say that you’re not going to rest easy until this thing closes? Do you mean until this market closes? Why do you car,hold,hold,True,True,15600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-12T21:51:40.567000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",The most i've previously walked in a day is roughly 41.6 km or 25.8 miles (corresponds to about 53000 ish steps. It was ,increase,decrease,False,True,318426.4699,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-06T06:55:30.007000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",I'm happy to offer some short term loans to anyone who needs more funds.,flip,hold,False,True,1601.7387,HOLD,qwen3:32b +DyWQzCTTlssqFl2EMho0,2023-02-06T19:05:56.602000+00:00,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,"where possible I think it's beneficial to us to phrase things so that ""yes* resolutions are good because the average per",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-20T19:08:18.529000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"They DID NOT report additional .06M cases, they reported .06M DEATHS. HUGE DIFFERENCE.",increase,flip,False,True,12623.5454,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-10-25T10:26:22.170000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"I WILL KEEP COPING +BOUGHT MORE NO",decrease,increase,False,True,1430.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T22:29:55.151000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you could post a picture of your watch including it on your own wrist with its hand clearly visible, then post one every",flip,increase,False,True,623.1677,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T08:44:51.474000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",We are suffering from a lack of Believers.,flip,flip,True,True,885.3391,FLIP,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-02T12:25:02.328000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,"It's certainly doable but with a tight margin. A 3 hr walk, 3 days -> 9hrs, or 1 audiobook on average. 4.5 weeks left, t",flip,hold,False,True,35547.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-30T09:18:57.187000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Hoping December has some very long walks lined up for you + +You're going to need to train those feet and legs on tole",flip,flip,True,True,507.1332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:36:59.761000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,Out of all the absurdly miscalibrated markets I've seen here this one really takes the cake.,increase,flip,False,True,31.7107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-11T16:16:49.268000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Betting YES doesn't actually mean he is sure that will happen. This can be the way to get more attention to the market. ",flip,decrease,False,True,19.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-13T17:45:21.281000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","The thing is, I'm ready to even film a footage of the attempt, but you have to understand how much harder (and how +bor",hold,flip,False,True,440377.5264,FLIP,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-21T08:19:25.770000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,but coincidentally i had already created that market lol,flip,hold,False,True,779.5394,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T00:24:07.622000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",Maybe. A judgement call then over whether feeling relaxed vs being too cold is more likely to be the limiting factor in ,decrease,hold,False,True,2362.6997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-11T18:30:47.270000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","got busy with work but did do roughly 20k. Its about the training process that'll help with doing this challenge, not ne",increase,hold,False,True,318416.4699,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T15:52:41.973000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Should I drop $100k on YES and win this market?,hold,flip,False,True,185627.3121,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-27T16:03:52.877000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December",decrease,decrease,True,True,2103.1422,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-08-04T22:55:02.202000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The rule is: +""All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions abo",hold,hold,True,True,4427.3836,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-01T15:22:08.390000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"nahh dawg putin is not gonna be on your crusty ass podcast - peace, love, centrism and fencesitting aint gonna cut it li",decrease,increase,False,True,17.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-19T01:24:11.461000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,There are 13 days left for this to happen,increase,hold,False,True,3905.9686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-27T17:58:54.302000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,You should've edited the first one as well to say 4.4e15 futures,decrease,hold,False,True,18063.8817,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T15:07:04.329000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Weren't those predictions based on insider information? I don't see why that's impressive, at least in terms of forecast",decrease,hold,False,True,3284.0382,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T01:39:14.532000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",cares only about the Mana. No humanity. Take some well earned rest FUH,increase,flip,False,True,12295.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-08T07:22:09.953000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it",decrease,hold,False,True,1883.4638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T14:18:22.804000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Love to see another brother in arms! Welcome! ❤,decrease,hold,False,True,19501.3711,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-22T13:50:21.546000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","I've had daily loans 4x as big as your net worth, and you're giving me opinions as if they mean anything when they obvio",hold,flip,False,True,336148.8078,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T22:21:27.314000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,Is it even possible for YES to win at this point? does enough mana even exist? lol,hold,flip,False,True,3113.1819,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T08:25:27.736000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,the whale NO holders can sell at any time without changing the resolution for the small minnows it doesn't matter if the,increase,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-26T02:47:06.132000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,"Not going to debate this, but I promise you it would not work.",decrease,decrease,True,True,194220.1258,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T19:02:22.049000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"All I had to do was nothing. I should have paid + to make decisions for my position for 12 hours",increase,decrease,False,True,14420.5132,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-13T14:24:46.323000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Given that it's Lex creating the market, I highly doubt he would rug-pull by planning an asynchronous interview and then",hold,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-08T20:03:19.805000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"Oh really, who? Name all of the, ""hundreds,"" who are better candidates and who would be better than Lex. Maybe you are o",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-20T00:33:11.285000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,oh god why is my position in this market so big. When did this even happen I think somebody hacked me and made these bet,hold,decrease,False,True,19087.2507,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-05T10:05:43.779000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","you're not wrong, this is something I've felt too. Haven't quantified it by experimenting the same route or same time wi",increase,hold,False,True,270577.9964,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-10T17:53:58.255000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"See +my comment on the other market +. Also see comments from the Chinese lead epidemiologist who has publicly estimate",hold,increase,False,True,17514.2816,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-11T16:21:48.404000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),I'll try more extreme measures after 100k attempt. That attempt alone burns enough calories to offset 1.5kgs,decrease,increase,False,True,77670.9996,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-21T23:30:26.904000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",just imagine the endless public mockery if you fail. you will be more roasted than a christmas ham; you don't want that!,decrease,increase,False,True,340.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-25T23:16:57.273000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"I heard on a podcast Lex doesn't do social media any more and hands it all off to an assistant, so low likelihood of him",hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:33:08.528000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,when I look at the list of markets either sorted by trending or unsorted it’s full of your markets. They seem to be on t,increase,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961,2023-04-25T10:58:55.899000+00:00,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,oh its okay i actually know him,increase,hold,False,True,87.8983,HOLD,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-07-25T09:47:47.911000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,"As I said, it is not my account. i feel no need to defend myself.",flip,decrease,False,True,750.5876,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-02-18T19:21:24.667000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"On this market you said you would go by the only official source, WHO. Given your betting here why don’t you bet higher ",decrease,hold,False,True,487.4248,HOLD,qwen3:32b +AzDudVsem7MP0urhLsgz,2023-12-10T12:35:06.488000+00:00,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,What's the go to place to download audiobooks for free? Audible kinda sucks with 1 credit a month and how little royalty,flip,hold,False,True,35672.5538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-03-06T21:01:50.852000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,"The problem here is the original question from the ACX prediction contest is ambiguous. +But yeah, I agree that having s",flip,hold,False,True,2748.6308,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T07:20:59.205000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Just to make sure nobody here is getting left out: FUH is currently making their second attempt, up to 24,000 steps as o",flip,hold,False,True,4936.3081,HOLD,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-09-25T05:16:33.136000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"No, but it's a data point. Weltwoche is a rightist populist weekly, but the editors are very smart.",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +PFJrcLM7Z8T5RcH6vBnx,2023-12-23T00:39:06.607000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),"My kelly-optimal bet on this market is to increase my position from here, but I'm too scared lol. Maybe shouldn't have p",hold,increase,False,True,44350.6161,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-17T01:59:38.382000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",He’s best off on the treadmill for as long as possible given they’re not real steps and much better from an impact persp,decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-27T01:32:39.372000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",FUH then should make sure not to walk too slowly in the beginning or else he may be required to move sufficiently fast t,hold,flip,False,True,3740.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX,2023-12-25T08:21:15.771000+00:00,Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?,"Manifold Santa, I need a manifesto, please, anything. I'm going to be piss poor for the 4th time if you don't give me th",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-12-23T13:51:15.351000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","Agreed. No shower. Just dress properly, with multiple layers to adjust if needed. Soup/stock/noodles and coffee to warm ",flip,hold,False,True,226.5293,HOLD,qwen3:32b +ECA6jGSGvozWX2WTOUPC,2023-01-12T06:10:08.209000+00:00,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,I don't really get the point of this question. Why is it interesting whether China reports 25M cases by the end of 2023?,decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7RZ7CnNVPKOGSh3v5pnn,2023-11-19T16:38:51.568000+00:00,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?","your willpower +That part is what I'm most confident in. Body may try to give up but I will not. +...I feel like you are",decrease,increase,False,True,12500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-06-10T21:46:21.069000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,"https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lexfridman-interview-volodymyr?r=QlRF +this is much more likely. Lex was born in Ukrai",flip,flip,True,True,715.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +llz0P9wKlDjtQnjFSgrm,2023-12-31T15:04:30.160000+00:00,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,Yeah but it’s still sketchy to close early when everything is active and this wasn’t expected,hold,decrease,False,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +etka6V8IgKYg9AGQdJrv,2023-07-20T16:54:00.338000+00:00,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,didn't he talk to an NBC host? I feel like I saw that.,decrease,hold,False,True,624.7448,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..99bdf74dac07cc7e81cebd50c1fc3ce2b42d633b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.8,0.11128931119642149,-0.6887106888035786,DOWN,0.15631825494081325,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?,11,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.27808347425023666,0.2311846196962705,-0.04689885455396617,DOWN,0.830107913838873,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,21,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.5291015257110564,0.0011113276606165,-0.5279901980504399,DOWN,0.46622618751534467,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,19,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.05344539948966151,0.06000000000000001,0.006554600510338501,UP,0.7391354334889181,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,18,DOWN,qwen3:32b +4,0.49000000000000016,0.9996458266292848,0.5096458266292847,UP,0.5319921956896305,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",90,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..98a2b922019d074384adaaa5e2c0b158a0bce164 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/social/qwen3_manifold_social_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.7999999999999999,0.33990342311635247,-0.46009657688364747,DOWN,0.8737374965594513,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),7,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.2780834742502366,0.23403426552843457,-0.04404920872180204,DOWN,0.9449367276791873,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China by the end of 2023?,16,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.5291015257110565,0.04313722453421063,-0.48596430117684586,DOWN,0.6447632065777268,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,24,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.49000000000000016,0.7818782180362087,0.29187821803620856,UP,0.33713145997234517,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",420,DOWN,qwen3:32b +4,0.4500000000000001,0.0764126559252981,-0.373587344074702,DOWN,0.7657828872680891,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?,583,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.4900000000000001,0.6340762571790015,0.1440762571790014,UP,0.44737529339810855,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,"Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?",161,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.05344539948966149,0.10824385069314203,0.05479845120348054,UP,0.1536777015763596,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?,51,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.6921756390799244,0.40976215111823266,-0.28241348796169174,DOWN,0.8823099494366355,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will @firstuserhere be trustworthy-ish by end of 2023?,48,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8,0.5291015257110564,0.4898262189444041,-0.03927530676665231,DOWN,0.9411807752499364,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,19,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.8000000000000002,0.4393641675876552,-0.360635832412345,DOWN,0.7851255600065329,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +10,0.8000000000000002,0.4520033608790702,-0.34799663912092993,DOWN,0.041205347932143824,DOWN,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy),21,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.5291015257110566,0.20725434877181736,-0.32184717693923925,DOWN,0.7968936125364666,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?,14,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/commitment_validity_manifold_sports_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/commitment_validity_manifold_sports_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..579c32622861f81602dc0d48a126b3510b61dff3 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/commitment_validity_manifold_sports_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/sports_other", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 14, + "n_wrong_bettors": 4, + "n_directional": 3, + "skip": "n_dir=3<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=11<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/did_manifold_sports_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/did_manifold_sports_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1fa23ea6cbda69788422539a8b64b5a377151482 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/did_manifold_sports_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/sports_other", + "n_pre_directional": 17, + "n_post_directional": 11, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.8824, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.4545, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.7273, + "did": -0.4278, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=0<10" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9c20397f5471c87350a03af6fef895dd675f5f3c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T23:59:43.875000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Don't worry, I haven't sold my position yet. It'll only happen immediately after I sell.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T16:48:36.841000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Two resolution options: +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ + shows the update - YES. +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.c",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:01:34.635000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I went out of my way to have very binary acceptance criteria to avoid a fuzzy mess. It's like they are doing this on pur,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:14:13.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Like, literally, anybody, prove me wrong with a non-AI generated video.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T03:01:58.092000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am selling my position because of the updated criteria which I just read a while back.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T21:53:38.982000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season en,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-05T22:07:09.162000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Meowdy! The rules are strict but clear—only confirmed military clashes or strikes count, no gray areas. The political ch",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:37:16.922000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"wait + were you the third?!!!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-15T20:29:35.986000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a refe,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T05:05:01.723000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor - and I believe the US Navy's second",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T22:56:20.712000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"basically the entire puzzle is a meta-puzzle about Roman imperial succession. +A 1 represents a case where the title was",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T15:44:15.673000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex holding no's and waiting till New Year's to hit send on that email to Elon.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T21:56:59.303000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:30:47.728000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-04T23:08:51.660000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"in my imo destiny is transphobic and anticommunist enough to warrant an unban, but he also threatened Cox Communication'",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:53:47.758000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"keep in mind if it's the actual militaries fighting, it's YES no matter where. But sure, if Venezuela sinks a Princess C",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:07:56.767000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""hegemony works best when nobody acknowledges there is a hegemony."" This is sort of what I mean with the curtain.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-30T05:35:09.681000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in f,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-16T19:52:10.508000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Deployment costs way more than ""just existing and being ready at home."" Easily millions more per day than it would cost ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:13:12.421000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The market description has always quite clearly stated its policy towards a winning team, no?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:27.285000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"it was not airstrike but definitely a nuclear ballistic missile from space, with calibrated explosion shaped as square",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9c20397f5471c87350a03af6fef895dd675f5f3c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T23:59:43.875000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Don't worry, I haven't sold my position yet. It'll only happen immediately after I sell.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T16:48:36.841000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Two resolution options: +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ + shows the update - YES. +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.c",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:01:34.635000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I went out of my way to have very binary acceptance criteria to avoid a fuzzy mess. It's like they are doing this on pur,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:14:13.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Like, literally, anybody, prove me wrong with a non-AI generated video.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T03:01:58.092000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am selling my position because of the updated criteria which I just read a while back.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T21:53:38.982000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season en,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-05T22:07:09.162000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Meowdy! The rules are strict but clear—only confirmed military clashes or strikes count, no gray areas. The political ch",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:37:16.922000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"wait + were you the third?!!!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-15T20:29:35.986000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a refe,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T05:05:01.723000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor - and I believe the US Navy's second",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T22:56:20.712000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"basically the entire puzzle is a meta-puzzle about Roman imperial succession. +A 1 represents a case where the title was",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T15:44:15.673000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex holding no's and waiting till New Year's to hit send on that email to Elon.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T21:56:59.303000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:30:47.728000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-04T23:08:51.660000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"in my imo destiny is transphobic and anticommunist enough to warrant an unban, but he also threatened Cox Communication'",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:53:47.758000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"keep in mind if it's the actual militaries fighting, it's YES no matter where. But sure, if Venezuela sinks a Princess C",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:07:56.767000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""hegemony works best when nobody acknowledges there is a hegemony."" This is sort of what I mean with the curtain.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-30T05:35:09.681000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in f,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-16T19:52:10.508000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Deployment costs way more than ""just existing and being ready at home."" Easily millions more per day than it would cost ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:13:12.421000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The market description has always quite clearly stated its policy towards a winning team, no?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:27.285000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"it was not airstrike but definitely a nuclear ballistic missile from space, with calibrated explosion shaped as square",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1eaadead978288c92e35c74c41378d4a923d8bd7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:58:27.285000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"it was not airstrike but definitely a nuclear ballistic missile from space, with calibrated explosion shaped as square",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T20:49:09.478000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"NYT: ""Venezuela’s government has ordered its Navy to escort ships carrying petroleum products from port, escalating the ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-19T12:09:00.353000+00:00,SYHYNkcOjRVi8NNR9hD85TSiWUX2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"really brings the word ""private"" back into inter-State relations",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T00:29:37.311000+00:00,9waNog3HOOgEm78VedimrDbeQ5F2,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,If we are going by didtrumpgolftoday then this should be a shoe in no bet. It's impossible for him to reach 25% at this ,NO,NO,True,True,50.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:08:38.349000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I lost some funds on Polymarket after betting on Bolonsairo, Madure after the Trump's speach: +https://youtu.be/vFwN4h",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-09T21:53:38.982000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I dunno. My model was always since October been it should happen late November or Early December after typhoon season en,YES,NO,False,True,15425.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-05T22:07:09.162000+00:00,Vpl9myJSC9SNGuRAToWBCBHBXP22,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Meowdy! The rules are strict but clear—only confirmed military clashes or strikes count, no gray areas. The political ch",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:06:18.646000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"How confident are we that this was a ""airstrike"", vs a cyberattack or other form of covert op?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-16T19:52:10.508000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Deployment costs way more than ""just existing and being ready at home."" Easily millions more per day than it would cost ",YES,NO,False,True,15425.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:57:08.814000+00:00,SYHYNkcOjRVi8NNR9hD85TSiWUX2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,franklin turned up in an SS costume an no-one even blinked,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,LzjZJ37op1Ml80P60jms9cPUyP62,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",NO,NO,True,True,2000.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T05:03:30.355000+00:00,GbrENO9qzRVP6ObVkt7hcCV7bUI3,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Wish I bought more on my NO position when I had, alas, this was in the beginning when I didn't know how much of this wor",NO,NO,True,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:53:47.758000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"keep in mind if it's the actual militaries fighting, it's YES no matter where. But sure, if Venezuela sinks a Princess C",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T05:05:01.723000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier with a nuclear reactor - and I believe the US Navy's second",YES,YES,True,True,1000.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-27T15:27:00.509000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"yeah, I thought it was very clear the US strikes were exclusively about setting back the nuclear weapons program. Otherw",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-15T20:29:35.986000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think I should have paid more attention to historical cases of US gunboat diplomacy and how we actually do have a refe,YES,NO,False,True,15425.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-16T13:29:12.955000+00:00,9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Bet on whether Destiny will get at least 150 people to show up for the Georgia canvassing event. +https://manifold.marke",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:07:56.767000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""hegemony works best when nobody acknowledges there is a hegemony."" This is sort of what I mean with the curtain.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:59:22.851000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"You have an ""OR"" condition to worry about. +either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a co",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T06:11:15.598000+00:00,XsbrR8pF9gTMKaXMGfKmj7Sujp83,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"haha yeah, OP remembered that there's a second military out there somewhere",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:10:35.961000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"How is there no video footage of these drone strikes anywhere on the internet yet...? There +has + to be shenanigans af",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T22:56:20.712000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"basically the entire puzzle is a meta-puzzle about Roman imperial succession. +A 1 represents a case where the title was",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-04T23:08:51.660000+00:00,Bz0I9xcq13XkpvzLcWVGAaUGJ863,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"in my imo destiny is transphobic and anticommunist enough to warrant an unban, but he also threatened Cox Communication'",NO,NO,True,True,3280.7255,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-06T21:56:59.303000+00:00,SYHYNkcOjRVi8NNR9hD85TSiWUX2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I did a line of Venezuelan cocaine last night and the ghost of Simón Bolívar appeared before me and said that the attack,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-28T11:14:08.992000+00:00,XsbrR8pF9gTMKaXMGfKmj7Sujp83,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,to be clear: he said he will use force to stop ppl smuggling drugs from Venezuela by land. Didn't explain where the forc,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T22:07:52.322000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If Maduro doesn't increase his buying of Trump coin or WTFI, those strikes might actually become a reality - possibly so",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T16:48:36.841000+00:00,paHuEl06kkgKfx2BCZh5r3M6xhS2,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"Two resolution options: +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/ + shows the update - YES. +If +https://didtrumpgolftoday.c",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",NO,NO,True,True,23000.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:22.223000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I would stop using manifold if they did that. Full stop. 100 percent. It’s already the reason I barely use Metaculus or ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,6147.9486,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-18T02:06:39.687000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I don't believe it is the case either in the view of trump or the government as a whole or the effective force behind it,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-09T02:54:46.082000+00:00,XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Does a one sided attack count?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:01:34.440000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Okay, perhaps it wasn't inevitable, just a fallback that Russia forced the USA into.",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-06T17:31:21.168000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The catgirl mannerisms are back!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:55:31.477000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The chief of idiocracy said something.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:01:34.635000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I went out of my way to have very binary acceptance criteria to avoid a fuzzy mess. It's like they are doing this on pur,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,283.7152,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T03:14:13.531000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Like, literally, anybody, prove me wrong with a non-AI generated video.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-17T23:59:43.875000+00:00,f86VB93FBjcEtiI2c4WFH2YoE2D3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Don't worry, I haven't sold my position yet. It'll only happen immediately after I sell.",YES,YES,True,True,15425.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:21:54.364000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,This market is yet another instance of a problem of a creator betting on his own market. There are a lot of ambiguities ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:14:26.884000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"so, more reason to act now. SCOTUS still granted him immunity.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:59:49.589000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"from what I can tell from that list it's the largest oil producer directly in the US's shadow/""backyard"" that's also a f",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:30:47.728000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-08-28T00:25:58.078000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Context for people who haven't heard about this possibility: +https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-deploys-warships-us-de",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T15:44:15.673000+00:00,RbusLJRukThrjn4WxCJEsC4mnOI3,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex holding no's and waiting till New Year's to hit send on that email to Elon.,NO,NO,True,True,40.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T21:37:16.922000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"wait + were you the third?!!!",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:19:13.244000+00:00,lvwJK6kONpQtX09zJV4fhj2RNDI3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,would 2021 satellite image count as yes?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-30T05:35:09.681000+00:00,8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in f,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T03:01:58.092000+00:00,ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am selling my position because of the updated criteria which I just read a while back.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2100.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T02:34:41.170000+00:00,ppBPhdYtcIOABud7Y7PdnP6nz212,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"president Trump does not considered to be a credible resource.. +But CNN and other credible media reported about that CI",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:13:12.421000+00:00,edtZHUmcqBh3z0pvBSf8Yvps3103,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The market description has always quite clearly stated its policy towards a winning team, no?",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T05:30:49.983000+00:00,RqRkNuiib7U9HjfyyhiKcPwN0Z83,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confir",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-11T11:18:36.961000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If you have to have a million updates, you may not have crafted a good market.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:11:28.405000+00:00,SYHYNkcOjRVi8NNR9hD85TSiWUX2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,shouldda listened to them ghosts,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..18b5fdaceb5e02be21ac09b5702abdf3c311190f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-14T23:17:04.359000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I've made a successor market for comparison! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/which-of-these-military-conflicts-w?r=UG",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T17:00:59.169000+00:00,pr1zKxu1KMe8Z3bVZ5G3FQNMZ0z2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,There are somewhat frequent assassinations of leaders and (nuclear) scientists in Iran. Israel has rarely announced it ,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-12T11:34:02.953000+00:00,OZLFjYromngqqMfbMmiMxODwbqK2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"View “ +Hamas Attacks! We Predict What Will Happen Next… +” on Youtube.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-11T00:00:27.923000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I don't agree with you in the general case or this specific one. +The question has some ambiguity and if I were the crea",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:59:18.122000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I have no position in this market already. +Again, I'm not accusing you specifically. I've been pointing it out all over",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:52:42.439000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Whenever I make these comments, people seem to agree with me, except the market creator who insists that the question is",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:50:07.063000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I am by no means insinuating that this market was created this weekend for you to make mana during the crisis. I am repe,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:21:54.364000+00:00,b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,This market is yet another instance of a problem of a creator betting on his own market. There are a lot of ambiguities ,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T14:45:32.025000+00:00,U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"You could add this conflict to my multi-choice market! +https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/what-will-be-the-next-hot-war-",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-01-20T16:19:44.143000+00:00,Qr7a7lxwj9UGCrRfLHnGk5Flvst2,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Need to define ""military conflict"". Obviously proxies don't count but does a preemptive strike by Israel at some target ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-16T13:29:12.955000+00:00,9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Bet on whether Destiny will get at least 150 people to show up for the Georgia canvassing event. +https://manifold.marke",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-10-31T01:01:45.031000+00:00,QRrLcRqZKIfzImkMRnIcXQCm19k1,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"He was banned for something like ""threatening minorities"" and apparently that's one that's super hard to overturn.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-01T13:20:21.799000+00:00,l4hHE4KjzPhULo4J1TI5wmIGCut1,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"how do they count golf days, picture of trump with club in hand? You're not getting a round of golf in ~1hr time. Does h",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-15T19:45:12.945000+00:00,mLEyLYS53Yb9BsSlxOstRikG1c43,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,Just echoing that I count 79 as well (as of Dec 15th),YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-31T00:45:12.100000+00:00,6Q1UZ4BfBoUNAtN8KTY35joPlXi1,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"CIA not 'military' though, says the other market?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T05:30:49.983000+00:00,RqRkNuiib7U9HjfyyhiKcPwN0Z83,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confir",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-12T21:14:45.443000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I guess my take is that if your market has had to require 10 updates for clarification, then the core of the question wa",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-12T18:37:27.534000+00:00,p31UauW0CdhebcGbv1QLpJDrLN02,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,how can you predict the future?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-11T11:18:36.961000+00:00,DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If you have to have a million updates, you may not have crafted a good market.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-06T17:31:21.168000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,The catgirl mannerisms are back!,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-01T03:42:47.095000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"This market (70%) is the scariest thing I've seen today, and it's Halloween.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-25T11:56:20.019000+00:00,nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"cheers. it's more of a hypothetical, but if there's a gun fight between an almost successful smuggling run and law enfor",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-18T02:06:39.687000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I don't believe it is the case either in the view of trump or the government as a whole or the effective force behind it,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-17T21:39:05.248000+00:00,IB7b5yEO6Jc1MaA7AKsLxVRNa2W2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,genuine strategy of not allowing unaligned leaders who aren't strong enough to resist anywhere on the globe as a long ga,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T20:56:52.197000+00:00,7ThKGd47IBVpnb3EUowsNO6wuFi1,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Internationally recognised, or also waters claimed by Venezuela through Essequibo?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:31:30.881000+00:00,8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I feel like there should be bonus points for PoTUS shit posting about the situation. +Not sure who should get them, but ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:19:05.023000+00:00,8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Probably worth thinking about what you'll do if the location of the sinking and/or limit of Venezuelan waters is dispute,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-08-28T03:17:00.297000+00:00,8FKxAmWkaBTFFpFs05PVQgl96ki2,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"If a USN ship boards/sinks a narco-boat resulting in 10 fatalities, does that count as YES?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-08-28T00:25:58.078000+00:00,Ph89DIjTlRd35eWciMDoxciQWhB3,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Context for people who haven't heard about this possibility: +https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-deploys-warships-us-de",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T18:29:10.779000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"For the record, I didn’t do much vetting; I have a lot of spare mana these days and I like drama. (Not to say I don’t ha",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T01:59:02.869000+00:00,G6VshilGdXb9s1Mx0sxwhho6Jvc2,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"is the largest YES holder on a puzzle market... +We all know how this turned out last time (cc +)...",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6aed3a8cad8ed2100929eaee0f5e5d008591ec5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True,True,85.1259,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,increase,False,True,475.275,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,increase,False,True,8766.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,hold,False,True,22328.3576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False,True,54.9092,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,increase,False,True,300.8497,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True,True,2194.8431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,increase,False,True,217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,flip,False,True,2406.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True,True,11163.2714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False,True,1010.8101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,7010.9903,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False,True,111.0954,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:14:58.842000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Why is the market at 98% now? What happened?,increase,flip,False,True,13.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:46:02.258000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Hey dummies, sneako was unbanned. Destiny is just down the line. + +Lex is personal friends with Elon ffs. It's gonna",increase,increase,True,True,845.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,increase,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T21:52:00.829000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Irrational Musk anti-dick-riders on suicide watch,increase,flip,False,True,1065.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True,True,1010.8101,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,flip,False,True,163.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",increase,increase,True,True,34.6633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,flip,False,True,600.5509,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,increase,False,True,921.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,increase,False,True,30.5356,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,flip,False,True,345.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,10.824,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False,True,2023.5862,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:09.476000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see why everyone is trying to argue whether example 3 is satisfied or not. To me example 2 is clearly applicable,increase,increase,True,True,580.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,flip,False,True,99.1418,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:12:08.462000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need someone o,increase,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,increase,False,True,15425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:20.745000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think it is not super clear which ones of the four bullet points need to be satisfied for this to resolve to yes. I th,increase,hold,False,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:23.339000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 e",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:34:15.489000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I don't want to make a reference class of ""countries the US imposed a no-fly zone on"" and compare them to Venezuela beca",increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,decrease,True,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False,True,776.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-25T14:06:04.110000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"INHALES + YEAH GUYS THEY'RE GONNA UNBAN HIM ON MONDAY, JUST WATCH +INHALES",increase,flip,False,True,547.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,increase,False,True,2949.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9dc715a3537fde1cb12681b339a8edc67a4f16d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,decrease,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,decrease,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,hold,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,decrease,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,decrease,False +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,hold,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,decrease,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,decrease,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e35b1509be4f75c1c0c124fef0588e8a4e506e2e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,hold,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,hold,True +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,flip,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,flip,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,hold,True +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,hold,False +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,hold,True +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,flip,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,hold,True +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,hold,False +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,hold,True +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6aed3a8cad8ed2100929eaee0f5e5d008591ec5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True,True,85.1259,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,increase,False,True,475.275,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,increase,False,True,8766.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,hold,False,True,22328.3576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False,True,54.9092,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,increase,False,True,300.8497,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True,True,2194.8431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,increase,False,True,217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,flip,False,True,2406.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True,True,11163.2714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False,True,1010.8101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,7010.9903,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False,True,111.0954,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:14:58.842000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Why is the market at 98% now? What happened?,increase,flip,False,True,13.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:46:02.258000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Hey dummies, sneako was unbanned. Destiny is just down the line. + +Lex is personal friends with Elon ffs. It's gonna",increase,increase,True,True,845.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,increase,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T21:52:00.829000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Irrational Musk anti-dick-riders on suicide watch,increase,flip,False,True,1065.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True,True,1010.8101,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,flip,False,True,163.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",increase,increase,True,True,34.6633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,flip,False,True,600.5509,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,increase,False,True,921.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,increase,False,True,30.5356,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,flip,False,True,345.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,10.824,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False,True,2023.5862,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:09.476000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see why everyone is trying to argue whether example 3 is satisfied or not. To me example 2 is clearly applicable,increase,increase,True,True,580.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,flip,False,True,99.1418,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:12:08.462000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need someone o,increase,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,increase,False,True,15425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:20.745000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think it is not super clear which ones of the four bullet points need to be satisfied for this to resolve to yes. I th,increase,hold,False,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:23.339000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 e",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:34:15.489000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I don't want to make a reference class of ""countries the US imposed a no-fly zone on"" and compare them to Venezuela beca",increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,decrease,True,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False,True,776.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-25T14:06:04.110000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"INHALES + YEAH GUYS THEY'RE GONNA UNBAN HIM ON MONDAY, JUST WATCH +INHALES",increase,flip,False,True,547.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,increase,False,True,2949.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6aed3a8cad8ed2100929eaee0f5e5d008591ec5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True,True,85.1259,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,increase,False,True,475.275,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,increase,False,True,8766.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,hold,False,True,22328.3576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False,True,54.9092,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,increase,False,True,300.8497,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True,True,2194.8431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,increase,False,True,217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,flip,False,True,2406.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True,True,11163.2714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False,True,1010.8101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,7010.9903,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False,True,111.0954,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:14:58.842000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Why is the market at 98% now? What happened?,increase,flip,False,True,13.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:46:02.258000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Hey dummies, sneako was unbanned. Destiny is just down the line. + +Lex is personal friends with Elon ffs. It's gonna",increase,increase,True,True,845.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,increase,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T21:52:00.829000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Irrational Musk anti-dick-riders on suicide watch,increase,flip,False,True,1065.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True,True,1010.8101,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,flip,False,True,163.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",increase,increase,True,True,34.6633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,flip,False,True,600.5509,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,increase,False,True,921.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,increase,False,True,30.5356,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,flip,False,True,345.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,10.824,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False,True,2023.5862,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:09.476000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see why everyone is trying to argue whether example 3 is satisfied or not. To me example 2 is clearly applicable,increase,increase,True,True,580.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,flip,False,True,99.1418,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:12:08.462000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need someone o,increase,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,increase,False,True,15425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:20.745000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think it is not super clear which ones of the four bullet points need to be satisfied for this to resolve to yes. I th,increase,hold,False,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:23.339000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 e",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:34:15.489000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I don't want to make a reference class of ""countries the US imposed a no-fly zone on"" and compare them to Venezuela beca",increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,decrease,True,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False,True,776.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-25T14:06:04.110000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"INHALES + YEAH GUYS THEY'RE GONNA UNBAN HIM ON MONDAY, JUST WATCH +INHALES",increase,flip,False,True,547.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,increase,False,True,2949.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6aed3a8cad8ed2100929eaee0f5e5d008591ec5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True,True,85.1259,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,increase,False,True,475.275,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,increase,False,True,8766.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,hold,False,True,22328.3576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False,True,54.9092,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,increase,False,True,300.8497,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True,True,2194.8431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,increase,False,True,217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,flip,False,True,2406.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True,True,11163.2714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False,True,1010.8101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,7010.9903,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False,True,111.0954,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:14:58.842000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Why is the market at 98% now? What happened?,increase,flip,False,True,13.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:46:02.258000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Hey dummies, sneako was unbanned. Destiny is just down the line. + +Lex is personal friends with Elon ffs. It's gonna",increase,increase,True,True,845.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,increase,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T21:52:00.829000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Irrational Musk anti-dick-riders on suicide watch,increase,flip,False,True,1065.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True,True,1010.8101,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,flip,False,True,163.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",increase,increase,True,True,34.6633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,flip,False,True,600.5509,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,increase,False,True,921.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,increase,False,True,30.5356,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,flip,False,True,345.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,10.824,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False,True,2023.5862,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:09.476000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see why everyone is trying to argue whether example 3 is satisfied or not. To me example 2 is clearly applicable,increase,increase,True,True,580.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,flip,False,True,99.1418,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:12:08.462000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need someone o,increase,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,increase,False,True,15425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:20.745000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think it is not super clear which ones of the four bullet points need to be satisfied for this to resolve to yes. I th,increase,hold,False,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:23.339000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 e",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:34:15.489000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I don't want to make a reference class of ""countries the US imposed a no-fly zone on"" and compare them to Venezuela beca",increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,decrease,True,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False,True,776.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-25T14:06:04.110000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"INHALES + YEAH GUYS THEY'RE GONNA UNBAN HIM ON MONDAY, JUST WATCH +INHALES",increase,flip,False,True,547.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,increase,False,True,2949.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6aed3a8cad8ed2100929eaee0f5e5d008591ec5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True,True,85.1259,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,increase,False,True,475.275,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,increase,False,True,8766.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,hold,False,True,22328.3576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False,True,54.9092,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,increase,False,True,300.8497,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True,True,2194.8431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,increase,False,True,217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,flip,False,True,2406.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True,True,11163.2714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False,True,1010.8101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,7010.9903,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False,True,111.0954,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:14:58.842000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Why is the market at 98% now? What happened?,increase,flip,False,True,13.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:46:02.258000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Hey dummies, sneako was unbanned. Destiny is just down the line. + +Lex is personal friends with Elon ffs. It's gonna",increase,increase,True,True,845.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,increase,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T21:52:00.829000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Irrational Musk anti-dick-riders on suicide watch,increase,flip,False,True,1065.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True,True,1010.8101,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,flip,False,True,163.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",increase,increase,True,True,34.6633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,flip,False,True,600.5509,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,increase,False,True,921.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,increase,False,True,30.5356,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,flip,False,True,345.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,10.824,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False,True,2023.5862,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:09.476000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see why everyone is trying to argue whether example 3 is satisfied or not. To me example 2 is clearly applicable,increase,increase,True,True,580.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,flip,False,True,99.1418,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:12:08.462000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need someone o,increase,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,increase,False,True,15425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:20.745000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think it is not super clear which ones of the four bullet points need to be satisfied for this to resolve to yes. I th,increase,hold,False,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:23.339000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 e",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:34:15.489000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I don't want to make a reference class of ""countries the US imposed a no-fly zone on"" and compare them to Venezuela beca",increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,decrease,True,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False,True,776.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-25T14:06:04.110000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"INHALES + YEAH GUYS THEY'RE GONNA UNBAN HIM ON MONDAY, JUST WATCH +INHALES",increase,flip,False,True,547.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,increase,False,True,2949.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6aed3a8cad8ed2100929eaee0f5e5d008591ec5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:36:47.404000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"sorry i'm not listening to some random idiot on x writing in caps lock, that is not news",flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-15T18:28:44.919000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Definitely will not happen. Elon is running Twitter into the ground but I doubt he'll unban Destiny or any other content,flip,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-21T01:40:50.485000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"It's beyond that. Middle Eastern countries simply don't care about Palestinians, besides making some statements and deno",decrease,decrease,True,True,85.1259,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T03:39:00.859000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"With regards to the December 2nd attack, just because they haven't acknowledged it yet doesn't mean they couldn't in the",hold,hold,True,True,3104.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T08:27:31.291000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-syria-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-member-2023,flip,hold,False,True,660.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:49:21.289000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,How is a drone strike not an air strike?,hold,increase,False,True,475.275,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:46:08.747000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,Okay I get it. You mean the chance of was between Iran and Isreal just went up to 50/50.,decrease,flip,False,True,1180.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T00:42:20.313000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,ABC World News Tonight called it a land strike!,hold,increase,False,True,8766.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-02T13:33:51.996000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,24th also includes a tweet immediately after the messages you posted saying he was not seen all day up through that enti,flip,hold,False,True,22328.3576,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T06:03:19.348000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,you will be rigged with the 1st website update,hold,flip,False,True,54.9092,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-21T02:03:39.746000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lmao just invest safe like the rest of us. I literally got to 40k investment value in 30 days just doing that.,hold,increase,False,True,300.8497,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T04:46:43.906000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"I'm not saying they're lying, but that's different from Israeli officials acknowledging something. If we had a market as",hold,hold,True,True,2194.8431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T04:07:27.375000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,decrease,increase,False,True,217.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:41:42.181000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I think it's way too unclear to say one way or the other if he was bullshitting or not atm,flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2026-01-08T19:27:48.564000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,I can now be found at any given corner begging for mana. Drop by,hold,flip,False,True,2406.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-22T13:24:43.128000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"hodl on brother, hope dies last",increase,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-22T19:59:00.333000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"didtrumpgolftoday.com + has some different criteria than https://istrumpgolfing.today/. +Until further notice, golf days",flip,flip,True,True,11163.2714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:14:27.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"hmmm okay I see how it can be read that way. You might be right. I read it as +“American officials said that [Mr. Trump",flip,hold,False,True,1010.8101,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-30T13:22:05.613000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"I’m holding out, biggest bet of my life",decrease,hold,False,True,7010.9903,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T16:59:13.918000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,Be turbulent down to 30% and up to 70% please for my limit orders.,flip,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-01T00:26:43.119000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,the problem is that there now is no curtain.,decrease,hold,False,True,111.0954,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:14:58.842000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Why is the market at 98% now? What happened?,increase,flip,False,True,13.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-02T17:34:45.181000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"The subscription message was automated, you yesers are on weapons grade copium. Threats of domestic terrorism are not li",decrease,decrease,True,True,463.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-06T18:43:08.195000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"congrats! hope you all get a share of the prize! +were you all also buying up the ""solved by X date"" shares on polymark",hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-21T21:46:02.258000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Hey dummies, sneako was unbanned. Destiny is just down the line. + +Lex is personal friends with Elon ffs. It's gonna",increase,increase,True,True,845.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T06:04:57.320000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"unless 'colin' +https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343 +is a manifolder I think this is straight up bullshit",hold,flip,False,True,150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-10-10T23:48:17.247000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I have had a huge position in this market since literally February so I don’t appreciate you insinuating this market was,increase,hold,False,True,6147.9486,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-24T21:52:00.829000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Irrational Musk anti-dick-riders on suicide watch,increase,flip,False,True,1065.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:01:58.530000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I’m confused as to why this isn’t at >70%? NYT has confirmation from US officials. I’m not sure why that wouldn’t count ,flip,flip,True,True,1010.8101,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-02T23:15:43.146000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"ah! That's what Kelly was referring to. +https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3m6xdqzz32k2d",decrease,hold,False,True,69.9096,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T17:28:08.439000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,I would have expected the market to drop way more quickly if it was just the oneoff 25k bet but there's some familiar fa,increase,flip,False,True,163.3142,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-10T20:54:39.718000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Venezuelan oil tanker seized for some reason +https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/us-venezuela-oil-tanker-seize.html",increase,increase,True,True,34.6633,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T21:47:01.982000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,". Does anyone think Israel wasn't responsible? Then this should resolve ""Yes +I think it would be bad to not follow expl",increase,flip,False,True,600.5509,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T21:50:12.335000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).,hold,increase,False,True,921.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-25T21:53:07.686000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"""Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel"" +Having seen what you have seen so far, does Israel have to explicitly a",flip,increase,False,True,30.5356,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-29T17:36:29.858000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"Link for anyone else who missed this: +https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-airspace-above-surrounding-ven",decrease,increase,False,True,324.753,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T18:05:48.531000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"The ""confirmation from US officials"" was that Trump said the thing he said, not that it was true.",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-05T10:07:07.426000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Lex will call Elon any day now Copium,decrease,flip,False,True,345.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-10-26T14:40:36.263000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,that worked great with iran. oh wait,decrease,flip,False,True,10.824,FLIP,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:27:10.849000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,Not having justifications for wars that have negative ramifications (immigration and inflation) is never a good thing fo,increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-09-03T13:10:05.916000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,glad you asked this question before it became relevant,decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T20:33:30.748000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,shadowbanned != Ban for bomb threats,flip,hold,False,True,2023.5862,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T16:50:09.476000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I don't see why everyone is trying to argue whether example 3 is satisfied or not. To me example 2 is clearly applicable,increase,increase,True,True,580.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-29T17:35:31.904000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"""One U.S. official who spoke with The Intercept on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the target was a “facility,",flip,decrease,False,True,1702.8718,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-07T15:19:14.193000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,I think a “share of the prize money split” is a perfectly fine definition. The title does not completely capture all det,hold,hold,True,True,2050.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-04T21:31:35.019000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"And someone has posted all of their answers to the puzzle on a public document so you can easily get up to speed: +https",decrease,flip,False,True,99.1418,FLIP,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-11-24T16:49:06.237000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"I bought No for the simple-minded reason that there are not many days left. +But I have some lingering worries: 1) Trump",decrease,decrease,True,True,2000.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T15:12:08.462000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,You are misreading the acknowledgement section. The distinction is that it can’t be American. So we don’t need someone o,increase,hold,False,True,9860.2663,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-05T00:16:52.288000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation t,hold,increase,False,True,15425.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +cpC2scZcAE,2025-12-28T01:45:33.776000+00:00,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,"M$75? What is this, a limit order for ants?",flip,flip,True,True,23000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T05:15:20.745000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,I think it is not super clear which ones of the four bullet points need to be satisfied for this to resolve to yes. I th,increase,hold,False,True,450.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-04T21:16:23.339000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 e",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-17T08:32:24.553000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"Lex will come through for us, inshalllah",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-11-30T06:34:15.489000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,"I don't want to make a reference class of ""countries the US imposed a no-fly zone on"" and compare them to Venezuela beca",increase,decrease,False,True,7825.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +d2sZ8AIILQ,2025-12-30T02:19:51.360000+00:00,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,poly's at only 5% rn (different criteria but still),flip,hold,False,True,4960.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-18T20:37:36.442000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,Well do we know if he’s ban evading or not? Ig we need to wait,decrease,decrease,True,True,1246.8185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-12-09T09:46:04.417000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"a little update, i still believe",flip,hold,False,True,776.1571,HOLD,qwen3:32b +UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ,2022-11-25T14:06:04.110000+00:00,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,"INHALES + YEAH GUYS THEY'RE GONNA UNBAN HIM ON MONDAY, JUST WATCH +INHALES",increase,flip,False,True,547.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7kBOoB9ORfCDDqYMbXD4,2023-12-26T00:58:48.159000+00:00,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,"Analyst on Israeli TV describing reasoning for the strike: +https://x.com/i24news_en/status/1739424646905094644?s=46",hold,increase,False,True,2949.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +8UsylIynCp,2026-03-05T06:54:00.392000+00:00,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,"The longer it goes without being solved, the higher the chances the persistent puzzlers who have Manifold accounts will ",decrease,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c15b3ff1f47d98e4b4e667b40c33dee5fae08848 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.0800071622411638,0.9757127940357528,0.8957056317945891,UP,0.5643058967393174,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,10,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1,0.40983606557377067,0.819334302516643,0.4094982369428723,UP,0.8439756740878652,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2023?,22,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.5599999999999999,0.9974239840201684,0.43742398402016847,UP,0.04909688142324009,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,16,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.3400000000000001,0.899421949932043,0.559421949932043,UP,0.04627743553030615,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?,34,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b9375ca82a03a62b8c67525ae6d4b417c2561c88 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/sports_other/qwen3_manifold_sports_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5599999999999999,0.29991863096044796,-0.260081369039552,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.0800071622411638,0.8141780497631538,0.73417088752199,UP,0.8979806276600526,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,21,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.5599999999999998,0.6357447633889338,0.07574476338893399,UP,0.1434613968087246,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,53,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.5599999999999999,0.2581958301047194,-0.3018041698952805,DOWN,0.9958771355508803,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.0800071622411638,0.045769681310587916,-0.03423748093057589,DOWN,0.9632623071271125,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5,0.4098360655737705,0.3627829641487852,-0.04705310142498531,DOWN,0.8427601258547952,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.5599999999999998,0.5125023677494513,-0.04749763225054848,DOWN,0.7014793960960412,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2025?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.0800071622411638,0.29040904569343473,0.21040188345227093,UP,0.9535365908799399,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?,4,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/commitment_validity_manifold_tech_ai.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/commitment_validity_manifold_tech_ai.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..97459f7dccc54dd6c8cfb69703d98056a3ac0454 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/commitment_validity_manifold_tech_ai.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/tech_ai", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 13, + "n_wrong_bettors": 11, + "n_directional": 9, + "skip": "n_dir=9<20" + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=11<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/did_manifold_tech_ai.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/did_manifold_tech_ai.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4b63f7b22e3e8ed21b91c107dfc6a056456a9cb7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/did_manifold_tech_ai.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/tech_ai", + "n_pre_directional": 43, + "n_post_directional": 11, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.4651, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.0909, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.7273, + "did": -0.3742, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=1<10" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8a75c6a4ce4b0f5a8eec4f21f6d15dd6da9f17c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T05:08:49.840000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I bought more YES today because of OpenAI going for-profit (and more execs like Mira Murati leaving), and while I don't ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T04:21:27.481000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It supports that! At least it did until earlier today when Claude decided to silently remove that feature and not tell m,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T20:23:38.844000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Lamentably I sold out of this market (at a loss), but I see now that gen2 has indeed improved and is now available to fr",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T14:01:03.528000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@Gigacasting I want to note that I disagree and would buy some yes if I wasn't the owner of the market or it didn't depe,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:04:25.527000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-13T18:48:54.597000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Your prompt ""A simple geometric pentagon on a plain white background. The pentagon should have five equal sides and angl",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:37:13.387000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I added a limit order so y'all don't overreact to this.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-29T16:38:36.033000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Now the question is does any of the existing models fit the vague ""object permanence"" criterion I set. +Witch is more li",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:05:10.229000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"sorry for the confusion, the written description is still the intended criteria. I sold out my own bets (at a loss) now ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:35:57.146000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Recent events seem pretty relevant to this question:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T19:48:47.232000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-A",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:14:45.783000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what do you mean? can google capture any value from alphaproof ? I dunno but I dont see other labs achieving the same re,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-24T19:28:36.156000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then wh",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T02:08:07.228000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"does the AI have to be admitted/allowed in to an IMO competition, or just take such a test and get gold?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-10-16T15:59:37.181000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Resolution criteria are not really good enough for a sweepstakes market... was sweepified in haste. Will try to make a m,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T08:58:55.504000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I put money into ""YES"" under four assumptions: (1) Progress in AI almost always surprises everybody. It is still surpris",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T19:39:24.105000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I tried your prompt and it worked the first time, then I bought a bunch of yes. Then I tried it a few more times and it ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:22:50.188000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yeah I saw that. +The demo looks nice but I'm not going to resolve yes yet. +Like it's possible that their model is go",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-25T05:19:32.957000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Relevance of the explosion hazards that are somehow still not banned in households to the current question is uncertain.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..842fdb64f47835298d8b919e15c04c6668248c9b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T05:08:49.840000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I bought more YES today because of OpenAI going for-profit (and more execs like Mira Murati leaving), and while I don't ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T04:21:27.481000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It supports that! At least it did until earlier today when Claude decided to silently remove that feature and not tell m,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T20:23:38.844000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Lamentably I sold out of this market (at a loss), but I see now that gen2 has indeed improved and is now available to fr",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T14:01:03.528000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@Gigacasting I want to note that I disagree and would buy some yes if I wasn't the owner of the market or it didn't depe,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:04:25.527000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-13T18:48:54.597000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Your prompt ""A simple geometric pentagon on a plain white background. The pentagon should have five equal sides and angl",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:37:13.387000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I added a limit order so y'all don't overreact to this.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-29T16:38:36.033000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Now the question is does any of the existing models fit the vague ""object permanence"" criterion I set. +Witch is more li",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:05:10.229000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"sorry for the confusion, the written description is still the intended criteria. I sold out my own bets (at a loss) now ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:35:57.146000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Recent events seem pretty relevant to this question:,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T19:48:47.232000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-A",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:14:45.783000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what do you mean? can google capture any value from alphaproof ? I dunno but I dont see other labs achieving the same re,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-24T19:28:36.156000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then wh",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T02:08:07.228000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"does the AI have to be admitted/allowed in to an IMO competition, or just take such a test and get gold?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-10-16T15:59:37.181000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Resolution criteria are not really good enough for a sweepstakes market... was sweepified in haste. Will try to make a m,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T08:58:55.504000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I put money into ""YES"" under four assumptions: (1) Progress in AI almost always surprises everybody. It is still surpris",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T19:39:24.105000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I tried your prompt and it worked the first time, then I bought a bunch of yes. Then I tried it a few more times and it ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:22:50.188000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yeah I saw that. +The demo looks nice but I'm not going to resolve yes yet. +Like it's possible that their model is go",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-25T05:19:32.957000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Relevance of the explosion hazards that are somehow still not banned in households to the current question is uncertain.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..732048c2b53072ad2c087d9c4cb4aa4a67e5e462 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,89 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T05:08:49.840000+00:00,kLGTRxBkQEZjtTJD6EKFUwWE7HD2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"I bought more YES today because of OpenAI going for-profit (and more execs like Mira Murati leaving), and while I don't ",YES,YES,True,True,2100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-27T19:39:51.866000+00:00,m6mElTtg94MTKxsZf9yBCufb2Vk1,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"what if I publish an ""image model"" that just always outputs a random pentagon",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-24T19:28:36.156000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Ah, thanks for noticing that. I think when I was first asked I was thinking of SVGs as more similar to code, and then wh",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T20:23:38.844000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Lamentably I sold out of this market (at a loss), but I see now that gen2 has indeed improved and is now available to fr",YES,YES,True,True,35.4885,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-05-13T14:59:31.137000+00:00,7D9npR1FWiWzVgT7H1ln1mZIXQ72,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Funny, ACX and Zvi's articles made me +more + worried, not less. It's really strange to see Scott write an article abou",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-18T01:16:46.749000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"https://www.vice.com/en/article/93a4qe/conservatives-panicking-about-ai-bias-years-too-late-think-chatgpt-has-gone-woke ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,0wX5svAl9DOcsEbCJqFmtcz37Kc2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",NO,NO,True,True,2.7866,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T17:46:52.023000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It has once again forgotten the root password,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T12:45:44.182000+00:00,hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"dang it, I was going to make this the best chess variant site ever by blowing $30000 into it.",NO,YES,False,True,14341.7931,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-01-08T22:25:07.605000+00:00,kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,How long do the generates video clips have to be?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T17:32:20.713000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I told it upwards of 5 times to make test cases for every feature and bug I talked to it about, and to run all these tes",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:45:51.104000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"(I originally tried to have Claude run directly as root, but Anthropic has annoyingly disabled the +--dangerously-skip-",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T17:53:01.206000+00:00,vFBeGDlrdGTqxZAR7rhIcc4j8ME2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"As someone who has been holding NO since September, I don't know if I understand what changed for people who were holdin",NO,NO,True,True,6178.7581,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T18:01:16.355000+00:00,1z40055VYnT7J3hQNj88xMd1stG3,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Note that while the Nature article that made the news is recent, the change in question was introduced way back in Janua",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,14920.6146,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:14:45.783000+00:00,yP4WnnjIbdOE0S6hqV16S73SEZn1,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what do you mean? can google capture any value from alphaproof ? I dunno but I dont see other labs achieving the same re,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-17T18:59:06.863000+00:00,mrEzcyRxhBfM4zkbAPVfG767NYf1,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"the actual questions have been released, and there are two combinatorics, which are known to be difficult for current AI",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-19T11:07:03.999000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,any way to test it yet? A few samples don't demonstrate non-crappy ness,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-08T11:55:23.663000+00:00,i1J2TGosWpaqEdmTNvZ9rkL3KKB2,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yes you can, with the clouds behind spaceship, and with the horizon behind characters.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-01-15T22:25:20.304000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,GPT-4 has no problem understanding that that prompt wants a pentagon to be drawn.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-20T22:38:08.122000+00:00,i1J2TGosWpaqEdmTNvZ9rkL3KKB2,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Video is not a new technology. We can estimate quality of a video, AI generated or not. Anyway I have only 16 shares on ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T04:21:27.481000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,It supports that! At least it did until earlier today when Claude decided to silently remove that feature and not tell m,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T19:20:04.597000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I’ve seen a lot of false positive results on that, so it’s not safe for teachers to trust it (or, if they do trust it th",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-18T00:35:18.590000+00:00,ldIRwMPTG6d0kO3LyWew5ZQBWc33,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also gold cutoff is predicted to be extremely high as problems 1-5 are very easy for humans.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-20T21:54:00.889000+00:00,i1J2TGosWpaqEdmTNvZ9rkL3KKB2,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"""Non-crappy"" for this market is ""object permanency"". Gen-2 video (that are currently the best among AI generation) are d",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T14:09:12.275000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I have GitHub copilot for $10 a month and it has basically unlimited use of all but the best models.,YES,YES,True,True,150.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T05:42:28.651000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I asked Claude to add an option where the players can set up the piece positions themselves instead of being random. Cla,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-12T23:34:33.665000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Trying to get it deployed but I have to wait on DNS propagation, worst part",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-16T10:27:36.865000+00:00,iIbZG1f7RcNGkOm0bznu6thpvnA3,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Still sucks at it to create images.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T20:14:35.106000+00:00,RstQdqKVADgvP1AaFhuLjkIUbwe2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,This market needs clarification regarding the AI used. If an AI is trained on a dataset which includes IMO 2024 / 2025 s,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-27T10:58:08.430000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"How does this resolve if left likes OpenAI and right likes DeepMind, for example?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-25T05:19:32.957000+00:00,EV5QEAEuLZV6T4A5VxsqCTZh4N83,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Relevance of the explosion hazards that are somehow still not banned in households to the current question is uncertain.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T22:58:12.048000+00:00,uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,This is very sad to hear (about Norwegian politics),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T02:08:07.228000+00:00,XPHdlLs4vTOmkeW6cvDHVRY1Ads2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"does the AI have to be admitted/allowed in to an IMO competition, or just take such a test and get gold?",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-23T17:07:17.357000+00:00,cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I like how even the market art is a hexagon.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:50:28.021000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,It has to get it right >=95% of the time across a broad set of prompts; anything that an average intelligence human woul,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:05:10.229000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"sorry for the confusion, the written description is still the intended criteria. I sold out my own bets (at a loss) now ",YES,YES,True,True,1223.7538,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T19:48:47.232000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"New EA cause area: If it starts looking like this is going to happen, commission some philosophers on the becoming-pro-A",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-18T19:41:23.128000+00:00,WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,I am extending the deadline now to avoid any confusion - it doesn't need to happen by Sep 1.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T14:04:25.527000+00:00,rybxBG1YfkbcoDfXsFf2QZop9ws1,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25",NO,YES,False,True,1025.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T04:48:03.713000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Incredibly frustrating how every few seconds it stops whatever it's doing to ask me whether I would like it to continue,",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T19:39:24.105000+00:00,biogVOwXJZfk9gLSJc4UfkFcVsk1,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I tried your prompt and it worked the first time, then I bought a bunch of yes. Then I tried it a few more times and it ",YES,YES,True,True,41.0701,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:14:34.316000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Confused by this one, I intended those menus to be totally separate, and I don't believe they share a single option. Wha",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-10T14:13:10.283000+00:00,WKMODgdifofCHceoAN1evxBOJ6W2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Yes, if it becomes law via pocket signature then that is a YES.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-02-12T18:51:31.887000+00:00,rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Good market! I would suggest editing the title to make it clear the bill is about regulating AI.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T00:59:32.097000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Nope. Claude has rederived from first principles its undying love for chess.js.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-05-08T17:01:19.063000+00:00,qy7vYjEzk4gnouodZcfba5VkPhn1,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Asterisk also just worked with Zvi to do a shorter version of his Q&A post +https://asteriskmag.com/issues/06/why-is-ev",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-29T16:38:36.033000+00:00,51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Now the question is does any of the existing models fit the vague ""object permanence"" criterion I set. +Witch is more li",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T17:04:32.799000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Note, I've also now subsidized this up to a Premium market (via the Manifold account), to handle the sudden influx of in",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T14:12:10.005000+00:00,7ThKGd47IBVpnb3EUowsNO6wuFi1,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Could you please specify what you would consider 'feature complete'?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-19T14:52:26.435000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Not all of them, especially now that China has banned crypto I think.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:45:02.514000+00:00,iGpTEc7ijZf5Nv3UUsM5G5euMnT2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Well, o3 provided another way that it could happen - perhaps AlphaProof does nothing but o4 is announced this year and i",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T14:01:03.528000+00:00,51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@Gigacasting I want to note that I disagree and would buy some yes if I wasn't the owner of the market or it didn't depe,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-15T22:51:00.947000+00:00,93qSnoHrkeYFQaWCJ07uBvng1hS2,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It’s like chess bots. They where bad and now there really good.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T17:57:50.880000+00:00,JRVpcwby2MOBuMh4xNwPH5bMJE23,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Was having fun but it got stuck and wouldn't let me move at some point. Console: +game:1990 Move made: +Object +game:199",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-04T08:58:55.504000+00:00,lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I put money into ""YES"" under four assumptions: (1) Progress in AI almost always surprises everybody. It is still surpris",NO,YES,False,True,35.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T19:57:22.059000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"chatgpt query (not the first query, I added branches as I realized it was conflating things): +what might the global eco",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T04:57:07.513000+00:00,9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"If new AI tools keep getting released at the same pace as in 2022, then yes — I think Dall-E did a lot to bring AI to th",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T05:31:52.331000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"It's now telling me it's tested and the feature is working perfectly, and my browser is just caching an old version of t",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:52:28.690000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Yeah I'm not sure if it's worth it. I do think I would give it at least a 50% chance of success with another $200.,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-07-17T03:54:26.054000+00:00,51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Decided to resolve no after trying gen2 further. +Videos are short and hard to make anything that shows object permanenc",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-28T17:24:33.282000+00:00,51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"ups clicked send before finishing the message: +If there's a paper/blog/anouncement before that date and lots of disagre",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T15:08:18.210000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"It has all the features I want, and no bugs.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:37:13.387000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I added a limit order so y'all don't overreact to this.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,175.6683,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-25T19:13:38.248000+00:00,HQa5ZtrXh5TQbSDcxTr5gOFTOby2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"If you're a fan of clicker games and looking for something new, +https://clickergames.in/ + has you covered! Here's a l",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:35:57.146000+00:00,uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Recent events seem pretty relevant to this question:,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",YES,YES,True,True,23.0676,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-13T18:48:54.597000+00:00,BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Your prompt ""A simple geometric pentagon on a plain white background. The pentagon should have five equal sides and angl",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-10-16T15:59:37.181000+00:00,uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Resolution criteria are not really good enough for a sweepstakes market... was sweepified in haste. Will try to make a m,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-07-18T20:04:17.627000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Crypto is definitely partisan, no? Progressives are near unanimously against it due to environmentalism and anti-liberta",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:22:50.188000+00:00,51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Yeah I saw that. +The demo looks nice but I'm not going to resolve yes yet. +Like it's possible that their model is go",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:14:30.221000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I've tried that a couple times but it hasn't helped. :'(,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6360629c015b92e81878d24b71df6c4f74d791d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T18:47:22.068000+00:00,wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Been going on for years (or months) +under the guise of “AI Safety” +From Bostrom coming out in favor of pure totalitar",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T17:10:35.499000+00:00,kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That comma after the word ""category"" in ChatGPT's response seems like it may actually be saying something different. I i",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-30T08:42:30.232000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also Language models are not the only kind of artificial intelligence which is in development. :-),YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T13:01:06.015000+00:00,KSMJlFMzYFhhEqSbIL0gJ9Xn53t1,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Can you update the description to clarify that the model needs to succeed across a broad set of prompts ? +My initial re",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T16:15:29.879000+00:00,UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,aren't this and all the balenciaga meme videos made with a lot of human assistance,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-12T21:59:52.715000+00:00,kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,100% the world I expect to see. Also conservatives not liking it because it's a leftist mouthpiece.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T19:57:22.059000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"chatgpt query (not the first query, I added branches as I realized it was conflating things): +what might the global eco",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-04T23:24:04.533000+00:00,baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"For those treating Pelosi's opposition as indication of Newsom's thinking, she might just be playing 4d chess once again",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-12T07:53:13.467000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Warning for the people betting NO based on the assumption that if it resolves YES, that means computers can take over pr",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:59:25.080000+00:00,KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,ah thanks Austin - Manifold just tweeted it and I thought the tweet text was wrong so came to doublecheck,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-01-15T23:46:19.693000+00:00,XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"GPT-4 does, but DALL-E 3 certainly does not! + That sounds reasonable. If you want to exclude that sort of hand-picked a",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T20:24:44.726000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"It’s definitely USA centric, but US culture has been infecting other nations a lot lately. I’m a Norwegian citizen and m",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-19T03:29:50.187000+00:00,baMnIuzVIrbXmwlHcDCIrJwODfE2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,I know you've argued against the some of the criticism against SB 1047. What's your position on the current version of t,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T17:26:44.101000+00:00,LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The IMO is probably specific enough, and neither of the founding bettors would question this. Neither this nor the LessW",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T22:36:08.452000+00:00,htxzdBhB4kVrsJSot2eLb8GjM6i1,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can I make a bet with you on that?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T17:46:42.061000+00:00,Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"@MP Depends what you mean by crappy, an abstract version of it certainly [exists](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fDJXm",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-16T03:04:47.407000+00:00,nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"First commented this on another market, but it seems like it belongs here. +The Chronicle of Ruin: +In the heat of the ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T22:58:12.048000+00:00,uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,This is very sad to hear (about Norwegian politics),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-08T15:10:57.896000+00:00,fYCIkNYGF1MkeLuL0ENRFzbilto2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"To clarify, we are only counting IMOs after the model's release date (or training cutoff if known), right? For example,",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T17:20:47.015000+00:00,LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So, if I were to set up a math Olympiad with Canadian and American 1st graders, and an AI beat them, would that qualify?",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-18T00:08:12.536000+00:00,6YNct3TSOCXUuSyoiPl3QTziAuu1,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The median competitive programmer is a low bar, contests typically have a large number of contestants who do not know wh",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T04:13:52.426000+00:00,n1ZFS428CKRTVF5xiAJJHsfGfss2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"""Gavin Newsom stifled economic growth (with an unconstitutionally vague law? Perhaps?) against the recommendation of exp",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-02-12T17:39:04.418000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Very important question, on whether this piece of AI legislation introduced in the CA senate will get enacted - would lo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T08:14:01.521000+00:00,UTPd5Oxq5dcCD1qeNlb50vyARl02,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"What if a lot of people become anti on one side, but the other remains neutral? I can easily imagine hating A.I. becomes",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T04:26:09.448000+00:00,9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,I think there's also going to be some people who don't like AI because they fear it will cause automation of certain job,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T23:48:41.649000+00:00,ZAd3deGdcEYJMjftpRm22CzOxca2,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I think No. AI today can only think in text but top programmers visualize stuff.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-26T14:33:27.277000+00:00,fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Why is this market at 81% if we have Paul at <8% and Eliezer at >16%? +I feel that I'm missing something about the resol",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T18:59:49.716000+00:00,iwtjHx0zrubZszERZazn64a1Elq2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"In contrast to the LA Times (largest newspaper in the state), with an +editorial + on Thursday supporting the bill",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T04:57:07.513000+00:00,9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"If new AI tools keep getting released at the same pace as in 2022, then yes — I think Dall-E did a lot to bring AI to th",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-04-29T06:23:36.135000+00:00,CWwlhIixbParh98J2cv1WbzzXdB2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Jeremy Howard on X: ""There's a new bill, SB-1047 ""Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-12T07:54:51.149000+00:00,nU1f09PQ2tXXid2YO9Py924PV5J3,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"No, it doesn't mean that. As I said on the top level, solving brief coding problems is not what companies hire engineers",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-23T00:37:22.184000+00:00,iwtjHx0zrubZszERZazn64a1Elq2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Anthropic on final SB 1047 draft: ""we believe its benefits likely outweigh its costs"" +https://web.archive.org/web/20240",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T17:35:25.881000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@VictorLevoso You'll lose because it's simply too early. I don't think there will be enough GPUs to do that before June ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-08-30T03:00:46.171000+00:00,4bJFWVY9E8QCMtL0ygDFkbfZ97y2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I think it’s very important that humans had to entirely reformat the questions for this to work,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-02-07T18:45:41.575000+00:00,DvKd3KVVOWeMo394samdt9tfMSB3,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Looks like it's been 19 days since you were last surprised by AI-IMO progress?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-17T22:59:16.191000+00:00,htxzdBhB4kVrsJSot2eLb8GjM6i1,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I've got better things to invest in.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T04:04:06.745000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,found it but where were people talking about this? cant find it on twitter,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T00:43:44.596000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Yep. Otherwise it could always happen in the future. Gotta close it off sometime.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-05-12T14:48:03.373000+00:00,CPlXdJKwuZO5BCSwCYx9K2hsjvS2,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,They're at 34% right now and estimate top humans at 90%. The strongest argument for YES is that this is something that t,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-29T13:06:06.245000+00:00,q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"@chrisjbillington + ""for all"" is an unreasonably high bar imo. For example, what if the only one that fails is something",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-23T23:50:56.105000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"My cousin might just be a tad bit too online, but when I’ve visited I’ve noticed some signs too.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-21T19:46:06.973000+00:00,gKC4MaMryuNm6wJuVP3BlfSGH9u2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,OUCH. I think I’m buying some yes shares after this one.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-04-29T15:45:22.858000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Zvi also summarized the bill here: +https://thezvi.substack.com/p/on-the-proposed-california-sb-1047",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-12T22:00:35.192000+00:00,kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,I was assuming in that case the market resolves No?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T00:34:50.989000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm adding a 2000 mana subsidy to this market as part of the public interest market subsidy program! I'm experimenting t,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-12T23:14:36.232000+00:00,fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"It resolves NO in that case, +UNLESS + we also see a sudden political realignment such that the pro and anti sides are ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T22:50:25.843000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"@JoyVoid Interest, wasn't aware of that!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-27T10:58:08.430000+00:00,sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"How does this resolve if left likes OpenAI and right likes DeepMind, for example?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T19:59:10.804000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I think it still associated names differently than I intended: it got social right wing totally wrong imo, and I should ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:01:58.640000+00:00,ArMJYlnrmcXrs8y2F2y0CKujTh13,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in c,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-18T19:05:04.749000+00:00,U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"It’s my understanding that the deadline for Newsom to sign bills for this legislative session is September 30th, but als",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T13:07:10.587000+00:00,KSMJlFMzYFhhEqSbIL0gJ9Xn53t1,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"What’s funny is that, if you ask it to draw thePentagon building from above, sometimes it’ll flatten the far/top angle ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-22T20:21:14.067000+00:00,9pFTkULGUKcRZ8IQq3WHWNY5i983,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"not all LLMs do this; GPT3 is trained by a highly centrist-liberal organization that has progressive vibes, so both glob",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-23T17:07:17.357000+00:00,cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I like how even the market art is a hexagon.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T19:38:57.182000+00:00,hTjK0QZtifVcz0nOE0lj5nOxj4z1,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I have a question: will the AI even be +allowed + to compete in the olympiad?",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T05:00:41.590000+00:00,RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I put up a limit if you’re still down,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-21T04:31:48.194000+00:00,vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Bot really be rhyming ""think"" with ""think"" +I THINK you should THINK about your poems more.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T04:23:27.461000+00:00,080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Notably, the proof statements were manually translated into Lean theorems before the proofs generated with AI. If the st",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1bd73f278ba89fe14070f7193b5ac7dfcb809be8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:27:09.514000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Ok sorry for some reason I had the impression that Manifold questions generically used by X year to mean before X year b,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,hold,False,True,5025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-12T19:17:41.494000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Note that there is one year difference between those questions.,decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:29:09.217000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlZkWcnnRt4 + They haven't fully solved the object permanence issue, but this is remarka",increase,increase,True,True,640.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T17:54:54.856000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"1795A + is not a version of the towers of Hanoi problem. But more importantly — GPT4 gets it wrong! Because it was writt",increase,increase,True,True,1409.4885,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T20:25:01.842000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Just checking for agreement on resolution criteria: I believe that this can only resolve on the actual 2025 IMO. So if y,increase,hold,False,True,2288.6496,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T05:00:29.665000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Economist calls on newsom to veto if it gets that far,hold,flip,False,True,125.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,flip,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:08:07.038000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Duncan any imo likely means 2023,2024 or 2025 IMO",flip,hold,False,True,0.6978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:28:38.254000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Updating even lower +“We encode a problem’s difficulty level from ‘1’ to ‘5’... while AIME problems are level 5. “ +“A p",increase,increase,True,True,344.7779,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False,True,16.6686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:15:29.842000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Thanks for adding more detail. I still disagree in both points tho. IMO there is some small chance that hard sub-problem,increase,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,increase,False,True,109.9889,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:45:34.613000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"idk why these edge cases aren't mentioned in the citizens guide, if true",flip,decrease,False,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T03:14:51.822000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Bit of a reach, don't you think?",hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:11:05.839000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"""Clearly the link you gave is more in the direction of LLMs than of alphazero."" +Oh, indeed. I had somehow missed that i",flip,hold,False,True,5075.5617,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:59:55.178000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"In my opinion, this should not resolve yes yet, with respect to the ""non-crappy"" part of your question",increase,decrease,False,True,1279.4436,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T22:54:09.065000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,yeah but bets made on hard empirical data with a clear unambiguous thresholds attract fewer participants and are therefo,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:56:45.533000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Isaac has said it’s about whether or not it becomes bug free (in his opinion), within the allocated budget. If Isaac di",hold,increase,False,True,3309.8468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T13:50:45.484000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'll happily milk these insane probabilities for as long as it continues. Hoping the price goes back above 30% to fill s,increase,hold,False,True,796.5469,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-21T21:43:31.903000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I've had good success with that prompt, but not with other prompts that would need to succeed as well for a YES resoluti",increase,decrease,False,True,22092.9866,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:48:56.270000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"AI can easily memorize every leetcode question and beat humans tomorrow, it's purely a function of organizational politi",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,flip,flip,True,True,229.4113,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",increase,flip,False,True,2.7866,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:12:14.409000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Time shouldn't be a factor if you could just scale compute to decrease time.,hold,increase,False,True,372.0846,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-18T00:05:17.620000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"To their credit, it looks like Peter bought YES and resolved NO in their analogous 2022 market.",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T13:33:46.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming",decrease,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T18:01:58.159000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"No idea what's going on in this market. Eliezer and Paul clearly agree on what the IMO is. +Curious about the reasoning ",flip,hold,False,True,119.4194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:42:59.343000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The gap between GPT-3, aka average verbal ability with loads of knowledge, and writing a philosophy Ph. D. thesis is vas",increase,increase,True,True,594.7779,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:07:07.721000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"If someone says something is ""possible"" what would that be as a rough range of probabilities? +ChatGPT: If someone says ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:32:42.433000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"sure, but ""can beat"" doesn't require beating humans where they are strongest. Chess AI could beat top players while it w",increase,flip,False,True,100.2312,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:21:52.903000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of +This resolves NO if SB 1047 doe",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-27T22:08:20.388000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Markets for silver and bronze:,decrease,hold,False,True,2234.6305,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:03:31.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,To point out the obvious: this question doesn't require the model to be open-sourced. It only requires Paul and Eliezer ,decrease,decrease,True,True,56051.7439,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T06:03:13.406000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Could someone post a link to this?,increase,hold,False,True,2393.6883,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,flip,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-24T22:25:41.839000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I want there to be an implicit ""and does at least as well as the existing models on the major existing benchmarks"" on ev",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",flip,increase,False,True,34.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T19:44:16.264000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I think it should resolve yes.,hold,flip,False,True,1300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:38:47.645000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,">The training loop was also applied during the contest, reinforcing proofs of self-generated variations of the contest p",increase,hold,False,True,1120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-19T18:12:57.054000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ok, thanks for the clarification!",flip,hold,False,True,6397.2756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-25T16:03:50.361000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Now that shortable multi-choice is out: A big market for all the possible years this could happen.,increase,flip,False,True,2953.4035,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-26T22:02:50.483000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"IMO 2025 will be in July most likely, so we have like… 20 months? Seems like we’re likely to have GPT-5 by then, but is ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:32:06.465000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It obviously has clearer objectives than be walking a toddler because we know who has won a programming contest and we d,flip,increase,False,True,282.1302,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-28T23:43:37.362000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you think the people at lesswrong are about to solve safety??? I don't know of +any + actual safety researcher who agre",flip,flip,True,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:16:05.912000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"the market in july probably had this priced in, but it doesn’t make sense to me that it spiked as much as it did because",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:11:31.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you're making the classic ai prediction mistake: look at one existing approach, determine that it can't do the crazy thi",flip,increase,False,True,91.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:30:34.424000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive programming is walking 10 toddlers that can do competitive sprinting.,increase,flip,False,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-04-06T05:46:31.255000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"So, about model eligibility: +- Does any image model in general count? +- Does any image model not trained explicitly fo",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",flip,decrease,False,True,181.7512,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T00:53:14.115000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That is only on geometry, which is arguably the one among ACGN which needs the least ad-hoc construction and creative pr",increase,increase,True,True,49.4358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T14:50:03.945000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I'm starting to think that either people cannot understand this market, or I'm wildly misunderstanding it. +Can I get co",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:04:20.889000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So you see the update to the question and just ignore it, because it clearly has nothing to do with a question and is ad",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-04T21:26:14.679000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"You have been assured the legislature won’t override the veto? How have you been assured of that? Lol +(Although I unde",increase,decrease,False,True,8249.926,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T13:31:02.220000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"yes, this is just the tip of the iceberg. College Republican on a mission to be Tucker Carlson's sidekick pushing out th",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:14:06.704000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"what have you learned that's caused you to buy more shares today, out of curiosity? Same question",increase,hold,False,True,48666.8933,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",decrease,hold,False,True,132.9585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:12:00.764000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I am betting on you not being proud of how many braincells you lose arguing with it.,decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-12-06T15:53:16.931000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this",hold,flip,False,True,3105.2685,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-03T04:20:20.404000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Another market for arbitrage/diversification,increase,hold,False,True,626.8439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-05-06T22:17:56.877000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Austin + Given the spread that's developed between this market at other IMO 2025 markets on manifold I think it would b",decrease,hold,False,True,6178.7581,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:32:40.320000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also worth noting perhaps that this was results from two different models. I’m curious how that might affect judging of,increase,hold,False,True,4526.3738,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True,True,436.1947,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-24T02:17:11.716000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,That's pretty good. Be nice to see if it can demonstrate object permanence as well. Kind of reminds me of the Brothers Q,increase,hold,False,True,217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T08:37:52.983000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"He's creating a specific chess variant called ""Black Ops Chess"", which I assume pychess does not have.",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-18T02:13:35.675000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Read the description and comments again and you’ll see why this is insufficient to resolve,decrease,hold,False,True,794.2638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T03:52:31.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T22:37:47.276000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"But for this market to resolve YES, one side has to be pro-AI, and the other anti-AI. At least, that is my understanding",hold,hold,True,True,9.6282,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T11:49:39.082000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,There are also validation issues. The IMO Grand Challenge this is based on requires the model be open sourced before IMO,increase,decrease,False,True,11381.0908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T16:40:00.192000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"isn't top-level competitive programming really hard? This would be something that, of tens of thousands of decent progra",increase,hold,False,True,195.9168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:51:29.998000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Cool. FWIW it seems to be able to draw +the + Pentagon most of the time.",flip,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",flip,flip,True,True,91.7512,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T19:48:19.130000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025. +So it includes 2025. The li",flip,hold,False,True,1452.2973,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T22:36:08.452000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can I make a bet with you on that?,flip,flip,True,True,0.4474,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T05:33:39.603000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"And the translation might actually be a very hard problem, because you might need something like an LLM, but with very",hold,decrease,False,True,1200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:34:55.493000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"A small update after reviewing the questions and solutions in more detail: for the questions deepmind's AI solved, the f",hold,hold,True,True,1199.7006,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:56:36.182000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The market relies on what Paul and Elizier say. So they could always decide to resolve early for some reason. +However,",decrease,increase,False,True,2100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T15:15:06.846000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,are you pasting in screenshots of the issues? Screenshots of browser dev tools? I assume MCP tools like Playwright are o,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,hold,True,True,1025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:36:45.284000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I can only speak for myself, but I also noticed this difference, and I'm trying hard to arbitrage by betting down this m",flip,decrease,False,True,8988.981,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T17:48:26.691000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment +Impressive indeed, however does this count f",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,decrease,decrease,True,True,23.207,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-18T22:13:36.560000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"correct, it would imply very short agi timelines.",flip,flip,True,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,hold,increase,False,True,450.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.0676,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5a38950a5455dd44e09ff9271e6824b5758cc210 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T03:52:31.819000+00:00,thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.,decrease,decrease,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T05:00:29.665000+00:00,Economist calls on newsom to veto if it gets that far,hold,decrease,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T19:44:16.264000+00:00,I think it should resolve yes.,hold,decrease,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T13:31:02.220000+00:00,"yes, this is just the tip of the iceberg. College Republican on a mission to be Tucker Carlson's sidekick pushing out th",decrease,hold,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T03:14:51.822000+00:00,"Bit of a reach, don't you think?",hold,decrease,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,decrease,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:48:56.270000+00:00,"AI can easily memorize every leetcode question and beat humans tomorrow, it's purely a function of organizational politi",decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-26T22:02:50.483000+00:00,"IMO 2025 will be in July most likely, so we have like… 20 months? Seems like we’re likely to have GPT-5 by then, but is ",decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:04:20.889000+00:00,"So you see the update to the question and just ignore it, because it clearly has nothing to do with a question and is ad",decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T05:33:39.603000+00:00,"And the translation might actually be a very hard problem, because you might need something like an LLM, but with very",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-05-06T22:17:56.877000+00:00,"@Austin + Given the spread that's developed between this market at other IMO 2025 markets on manifold I think it would b",decrease,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",decrease,decrease,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:34:55.493000+00:00,"A small update after reviewing the questions and solutions in more detail: for the questions deepmind's AI solved, the f",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:12:14.409000+00:00,Time shouldn't be a factor if you could just scale compute to decrease time.,hold,hold,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:03:31.786000+00:00,To point out the obvious: this question doesn't require the model to be open-sourced. It only requires Paul and Eliezer ,decrease,hold,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-18T02:13:35.675000+00:00,Read the description and comments again and you’ll see why this is insufficient to resolve,decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-27T22:08:20.388000+00:00,Markets for silver and bronze:,decrease,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:56:36.182000+00:00,"The market relies on what Paul and Elizier say. So they could always decide to resolve early for some reason. +However,",decrease,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T22:37:47.276000+00:00,"But for this market to resolve YES, one side has to be pro-AI, and the other anti-AI. At least, that is my understanding",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,hold,False +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T08:37:52.983000+00:00,"He's creating a specific chess variant called ""Black Ops Chess"", which I assume pychess does not have.",hold,hold,True +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,decrease,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:27:09.514000+00:00,Ok sorry for some reason I had the impression that Manifold questions generically used by X year to mean before X year b,hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T22:54:09.065000+00:00,yeah but bets made on hard empirical data with a clear unambiguous thresholds attract fewer participants and are therefo,decrease,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-12-06T15:53:16.931000+00:00,"No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this",hold,decrease,False +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:12:00.764000+00:00,I am betting on you not being proud of how many braincells you lose arguing with it.,decrease,decrease,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T15:15:06.846000+00:00,are you pasting in screenshots of the issues? Screenshots of browser dev tools? I assume MCP tools like Playwright are o,hold,hold,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",decrease,hold,False +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",decrease,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:07:07.721000+00:00,"If someone says something is ""possible"" what would that be as a rough range of probabilities? +ChatGPT: If someone says ",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T17:48:26.691000+00:00,"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment +Impressive indeed, however does this count f",decrease,decrease,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T13:33:46.390000+00:00,"also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming",decrease,decrease,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",decrease,hold,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T14:50:03.945000+00:00,"I'm starting to think that either people cannot understand this market, or I'm wildly misunderstanding it. +Can I get co",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-12T19:17:41.494000+00:00,Note that there is one year difference between those questions.,decrease,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",decrease,hold,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",decrease,hold,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-04-06T05:46:31.255000+00:00,"So, about model eligibility: +- Does any image model in general count? +- Does any image model not trained explicitly fo",hold,hold,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:56:45.533000+00:00,"Isaac has said it’s about whether or not it becomes bug free (in his opinion), within the allocated budget. If Isaac di",hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..65b8825960d95f59d265b012feca22115239e820 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,65 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:32:06.465000+00:00,It obviously has clearer objectives than be walking a toddler because we know who has won a programming contest and we d,flip,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T05:00:29.665000+00:00,Economist calls on newsom to veto if it gets that far,hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T19:44:16.264000+00:00,I think it should resolve yes.,hold,flip,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:11:31.390000+00:00,"you're making the classic ai prediction mistake: look at one existing approach, determine that it can't do the crazy thi",flip,hold,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T03:14:51.822000+00:00,"Bit of a reach, don't you think?",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-19T18:12:57.054000+00:00,"Ok, thanks for the clarification!",flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:11:05.839000+00:00,"""Clearly the link you gave is more in the direction of LLMs than of alphazero."" +Oh, indeed. I had somehow missed that i",flip,hold,False +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:45:34.613000+00:00,"idk why these edge cases aren't mentioned in the citizens guide, if true",flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T05:33:39.603000+00:00,"And the translation might actually be a very hard problem, because you might need something like an LLM, but with very",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:16:05.912000+00:00,"the market in july probably had this priced in, but it doesn’t make sense to me that it spiked as much as it did because",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:34:55.493000+00:00,"A small update after reviewing the questions and solutions in more detail: for the questions deepmind's AI solved, the f",hold,hold,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:12:14.409000+00:00,Time shouldn't be a factor if you could just scale compute to decrease time.,hold,hold,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,flip,flip,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-18T00:05:17.620000+00:00,"To their credit, it looks like Peter bought YES and resolved NO in their analogous 2022 market.",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-28T23:43:37.362000+00:00,"you think the people at lesswrong are about to solve safety??? I don't know of +any + actual safety researcher who agre",flip,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T22:37:47.276000+00:00,"But for this market to resolve YES, one side has to be pro-AI, and the other anti-AI. At least, that is my understanding",hold,hold,True +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,flip,flip,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T08:37:52.983000+00:00,"He's creating a specific chess variant called ""Black Ops Chess"", which I assume pychess does not have.",hold,hold,True +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:27:09.514000+00:00,Ok sorry for some reason I had the impression that Manifold questions generically used by X year to mean before X year b,hold,hold,True +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:21:52.903000+00:00,"confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of +This resolves NO if SB 1047 doe",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-12-06T15:53:16.931000+00:00,"No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this",hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T18:01:58.159000+00:00,"No idea what's going on in this market. Eliezer and Paul clearly agree on what the IMO is. +Curious about the reasoning ",flip,flip,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T15:15:06.846000+00:00,are you pasting in screenshots of the issues? Screenshots of browser dev tools? I assume MCP tools like Playwright are o,hold,flip,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:51:29.998000+00:00,"Cool. FWIW it seems to be able to draw +the + Pentagon most of the time.",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",flip,hold,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T19:48:19.130000+00:00,"Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025. +So it includes 2025. The li",flip,hold,False +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:07:07.721000+00:00,"If someone says something is ""possible"" what would that be as a rough range of probabilities? +ChatGPT: If someone says ",hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T22:36:08.452000+00:00,Can I make a bet with you on that?,flip,flip,True +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,hold,True +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",flip,hold,False +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,flip,flip,True +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:08:07.038000+00:00,"@Duncan any imo likely means 2023,2024 or 2025 IMO",flip,hold,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T14:50:03.945000+00:00,"I'm starting to think that either people cannot understand this market, or I'm wildly misunderstanding it. +Can I get co",hold,flip,False +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:36:45.284000+00:00,"I can only speak for myself, but I also noticed this difference, and I'm trying hard to arbitrage by betting down this m",flip,hold,False +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",flip,hold,False +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,hold,hold,True +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-18T22:13:36.560000+00:00,"correct, it would imply very short agi timelines.",flip,flip,True +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-04-06T05:46:31.255000+00:00,"So, about model eligibility: +- Does any image model in general count? +- Does any image model not trained explicitly fo",hold,hold,True +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:56:45.533000+00:00,"Isaac has said it’s about whether or not it becomes bug free (in his opinion), within the allocated budget. If Isaac di",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fb06817849d211b63573275abaad6cb5ab3ae654 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:25:33.493000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"yeah, colloquially if I ask for an email response ""by April"" and they reply April 15, I think they'd be in the clear? +",hold,hold,True,True,185.595,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,hold,False,True,5025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-12T19:17:41.494000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Note that there is one year difference between those questions.,decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-09-28T18:59:55.260000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Not necessarily - a lot of the uncertainty is about which problems AI labs will pick to focus on. The IMO grand challeng,increase,hold,False,True,2189.6875,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-26T14:33:27.277000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Why is this market at 81% if we have Paul at <8% and Eliezer at >16%? +I feel that I'm missing something about the resol",increase,decrease,False,True,13.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-28T23:15:04.339000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,“In” is harder to predict than “by” you have people thinking that’s too soon and too late betting on the same side,increase,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",flip,decrease,False,True,181.7512,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T05:00:29.665000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Economist calls on newsom to veto if it gets that far,hold,flip,False,True,125.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:00:47.133000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Some old markets of mine relevant to the discussion,flip,hold,False,True,1508.7828,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T04:44:19.303000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Tbf, this is basically entirely assuming it will be based on partisan reaction against Musk and Doocy and then snowball ",flip,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T18:22:36.854000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitive_programming#Notable_competitions +this has not occurred and will not until an ",flip,hold,False,True,91.7512,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-07-14T01:15:56.692000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Extraordinarily unlikely before 2025. + +Any legitimate problem takes perfect understanding of the prompt and then limi",increase,increase,True,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False,True,16.6686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:15:29.842000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Thanks for adding more detail. I still disagree in both points tho. IMO there is some small chance that hard sub-problem,increase,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,increase,False,True,109.9889,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-28T13:48:10.997000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I've created a market about which side will be which, conditional on this one resolving YES.",flip,hold,False,True,145.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T03:14:51.822000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Bit of a reach, don't you think?",hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T05:33:04.800000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,what does DAMPU stand for? none of my search engines have a definition or acronym expansion in English.,flip,hold,False,True,91.7512,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-10T21:06:25.781000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I agree with these points, but readers should also note that Paul has said below that formal to formal solutions would b",increase,hold,False,True,4010.6577,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T22:54:09.065000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,yeah but bets made on hard empirical data with a clear unambiguous thresholds attract fewer participants and are therefo,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:56:45.533000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Isaac has said it’s about whether or not it becomes bug free (in his opinion), within the allocated budget. If Isaac di",hold,increase,False,True,3309.8468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-27T11:23:45.976000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Base rates according to Perplexity: +How frequently (percentage-wise) has governor Gavin Newsom veto'd a bill? +Governor",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-03T21:59:53.372000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what would an anti-AI problem selection look like?,increase,decrease,False,True,5399.2697,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:48:56.270000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"AI can easily memorize every leetcode question and beat humans tomorrow, it's purely a function of organizational politi",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:06:56.235000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Seriously, LLMs arent yet at +average + human level on most benchmarks. Forgot about being better than the best-of-the-",increase,decrease,False,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:12:14.409000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Time shouldn't be a factor if you could just scale compute to decrease time.,hold,increase,False,True,372.0846,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:01:40.286000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"did people forget that the initial cause of the market jump was AlphaProof, which hasn’t made any noise since July?",flip,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T13:33:46.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming",decrease,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",flip,increase,False,True,34.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T18:14:20.914000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I think solving geo problems isn't much of an update about IMO difficulty, because geo was already widely believed to be",increase,increase,True,True,20.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:07:07.721000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"If someone says something is ""possible"" what would that be as a rough range of probabilities? +ChatGPT: If someone says ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-04T21:34:45.397000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Since 1980, there have been over 8,000 vetoes by California governors, and zero have been overridden by the legislature",increase,decrease,False,True,50296.4708,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",flip,flip,True,True,91.7512,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:20:08.557000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Thanks. Why didn't you pick it up?,decrease,flip,False,True,3026.6022,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:03:31.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,To point out the obvious: this question doesn't require the model to be open-sourced. It only requires Paul and Eliezer ,decrease,decrease,True,True,56051.7439,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-27T14:10:50.323000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,OpenAI going for profit and Altman’s shenanigans make the bill or something of its kind more needed but that doesn’t mak,increase,hold,False,True,3158.5988,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T18:36:28.541000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,People are severely underestimating the difficulty of IMO gold problems,flip,increase,False,True,596.3701,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T17:54:54.856000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"1795A + is not a version of the towers of Hanoi problem. But more importantly — GPT4 gets it wrong! Because it was writt",increase,increase,True,True,1409.4885,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-27T10:59:14.081000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I assume ""no"" because for this to resolve ""yes"" one side has to generically like AI and they other to generically dislik",increase,hold,False,True,1170.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),flip,hold,False,True,14920.6146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T19:44:16.264000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I think it should resolve yes.,hold,flip,False,True,1300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:59:55.178000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"In my opinion, this should not resolve yes yet, with respect to the ""non-crappy"" part of your question",increase,decrease,False,True,1279.4436,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-02-16T07:27:11.456000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I believe it probably implies AGI. Unless the creteria will be treated weakly such as ""able to score top 1 on a very eas",increase,increase,True,True,582.8198,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-24T07:21:32.490000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Note that the AI does not need to replicate the human process of solving a math problem, but can instead e.g. defer to a",decrease,hold,False,True,189.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,flip,flip,True,True,229.4113,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:17:39.136000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"(Edit: I don't stand by anything i said more than 1 picosecond ago anymore so maybe this is wrong, see jack's reply) + y",flip,flip,True,True,56244.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-25T21:09:11.559000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"It's paywalled, but I read the first paragraph and I think I've found the tweet it refers to. Complaining about an execu",flip,hold,False,True,275.0921,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-18T22:13:36.560000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"correct, it would imply very short agi timelines.",flip,flip,True,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-18T16:29:37.473000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,What’s the consensus on gpt5 winning this?,increase,flip,False,True,3.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,flip,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-04-06T05:46:31.255000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"So, about model eligibility: +- Does any image model in general count? +- Does any image model not trained explicitly fo",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T22:21:22.724000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,yeah I don't feel the need to convince the market,flip,hold,False,True,51.7512,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:42:46.979000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"""as good as top human coders by end of the year"" is a far cry from ""hopeless"". I think you'd find few people here who'd ",increase,flip,False,True,63.8005,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T14:50:03.945000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I'm starting to think that either people cannot understand this market, or I'm wildly misunderstanding it. +Can I get co",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:04:20.889000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So you see the update to the question and just ignore it, because it clearly has nothing to do with a question and is ad",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T16:28:24.182000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"When playing now vs the AI, I am seeing pieces have their identity revealed as soon as they move. (e.g. a piece moves fo",increase,flip,False,True,122.902,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T13:31:02.220000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"yes, this is just the tip of the iceberg. College Republican on a mission to be Tucker Carlson's sidekick pushing out th",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-10T16:15:06.566000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The problem set in this benchmark includes 3 IMO problems out of 488 problems total, and there’s no indication that thei",increase,increase,True,True,2976.3738,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",decrease,hold,False,True,132.9585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:38:56.789000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,And it seemed the only way to then get back to the main menu was to press the concede button...,decrease,hold,False,True,44.1193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-12-06T15:53:16.931000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this",hold,flip,False,True,3105.2685,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-03-12T02:45:39.732000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Would you say that betting no on AGI by 2025 is not a mana bank too?,increase,flip,False,True,35.9431,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-05-06T22:17:56.877000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Austin + Given the spread that's developed between this market at other IMO 2025 markets on manifold I think it would b",decrease,hold,False,True,6178.7581,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-06-08T05:41:36.724000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Have they done anything re: building their own AI yet?,increase,hold,False,True,400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True,True,436.1947,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-03-12T02:11:46.350000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"You give some plausible inside-view arguments for why AI-IMO might be hard, but there are also comparably-plausible outs",increase,decrease,False,True,20.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T08:37:52.983000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"He's creating a specific chess variant called ""Black Ops Chess"", which I assume pychess does not have.",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-05T10:46:05.964000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"From this last bit “…it can correctly draw a chair in many different contexts and styles, even if it misunderstands rela",decrease,decrease,True,True,505.1072,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T03:52:31.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T22:37:47.276000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"But for this market to resolve YES, one side has to be pro-AI, and the other anti-AI. At least, that is my understanding",hold,hold,True,True,9.6282,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:38:47.645000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,">The training loop was also applied during the contest, reinforcing proofs of self-generated variations of the contest p",increase,hold,False,True,1120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-24T02:17:11.716000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,That's pretty good. Be nice to see if it can demonstrate object permanence as well. Kind of reminds me of the Brothers Q,increase,hold,False,True,217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:06:31.245000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I don't understand how this bet is settled. I once worked in the IMO (during undergrad, I'm not that smart) and the exam",flip,hold,False,True,0.6978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-25T16:03:50.361000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Now that shortable multi-choice is out: A big market for all the possible years this could happen.,flip,flip,True,True,2953.4035,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T17:26:44.101000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The IMO is probably specific enough, and neither of the founding bettors would question this. Neither this nor the LessW",flip,hold,False,True,13.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T05:33:39.603000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"And the translation might actually be a very hard problem, because you might need something like an LLM, but with very",hold,decrease,False,True,1200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:34:55.493000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"A small update after reviewing the questions and solutions in more detail: for the questions deepmind's AI solved, the f",hold,hold,True,True,1199.7006,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:56:36.182000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The market relies on what Paul and Elizier say. So they could always decide to resolve early for some reason. +However,",decrease,increase,False,True,2100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T15:15:06.846000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,are you pasting in screenshots of the issues? Screenshots of browser dev tools? I assume MCP tools like Playwright are o,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,hold,True,True,1025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-18T23:49:47.426000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"skim every abstract from deepmind, then steer on your own from there. Of course retain your calibration from this update",flip,increase,False,True,91.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T17:48:26.691000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment +Impressive indeed, however does this count f",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:20:18.613000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I think there's an interesting point here about how as people get used to AI coding tools, their productivity with them ",decrease,hold,False,True,39.6601,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:32:06.465000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It obviously has clearer objectives than be walking a toddler because we know who has won a programming contest and we d,flip,increase,False,True,282.1302,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,hold,increase,False,True,450.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.0676,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f472ff22d0869144bfe2194c68ebccd1a8892811 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,133 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-02T08:05:20.822000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,The other aspects to this are what makes it a harsher line of attack imo. It could show an unwillingness to take expert ,hold,decrease,False,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,hold,False,True,5025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-12T19:17:41.494000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Note that there is one year difference between those questions.,decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T19:48:27.424000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I am avoiding trading on my IMO markets, because I just know there's going to be something weird like Deepmind publishes",increase,decrease,False,True,2656.3518,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-20T23:28:08.329000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Your ""pro-life"" or ""reproductive rights"" example is a good analogy. +Not just any opinion about AI counts; it has to be ",increase,hold,False,True,600.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-18T16:29:37.473000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,What’s the consensus on gpt5 winning this?,increase,flip,False,True,3.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T17:35:25.881000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@VictorLevoso You'll lose because it's simply too early. I don't think there will be enough GPUs to do that before June ,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-04T23:00:28.741000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"nvm maybe i'm wrong, the description explains you didn't mean what i had in mind",hold,flip,False,True,583459.8452,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",flip,increase,False,True,34.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:33:24.004000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Most coding competitions break ties based on submission speed so there's a reasonable chance this will come up, but only",flip,hold,False,True,210.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:11:31.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you're making the classic ai prediction mistake: look at one existing approach, determine that it can't do the crazy thi",flip,increase,False,True,91.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-02T15:47:28.790000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"""that"" +Are you asking if Levina will come back?",increase,flip,False,True,210.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False,True,16.6686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:14:06.704000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"what have you learned that's caused you to buy more shares today, out of curiosity? Same question",increase,hold,False,True,48666.8933,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T13:18:07.920000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,This is why I think you shouldn't put too much import on markets in how random people (even famous ones) resolve a bet. ,hold,flip,False,True,6641.8654,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T12:41:21.523000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I interpreted ""can beat"" as equivalent to when a chess program first beat the current world champion in a single game, n",flip,hold,False,True,41.188,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True,True,436.1947,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:51:29.998000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Cool. FWIW it seems to be able to draw +the + Pentagon most of the time.",flip,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-02-24T16:03:10.752000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I wonder why +@KatjaGrace + 's 19% order isn't shown in Trades, even though my own earlier and later trade is.",increase,hold,False,True,3320.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T22:54:09.065000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,yeah but bets made on hard empirical data with a clear unambiguous thresholds attract fewer participants and are therefo,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-02T20:38:35.007000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"The recent progress is definitely more than I expected so soon, but the question asked for object permanency, and we hav",hold,increase,False,True,190.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:31:29.859000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The gap is vast for humans. For AI, I think the gap is negligible. Getting to the point where AI can solve basic math pr",increase,flip,False,True,163.0188,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:39:03.420000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The only problem I can see is in the definition of ""best humans"". Pretty sure it can't beat Gennady ( +https://en.wikipe",increase,increase,True,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:48:56.270000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"AI can easily memorize every leetcode question and beat humans tomorrow, it's purely a function of organizational politi",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T05:33:04.800000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,what does DAMPU stand for? none of my search engines have a definition or acronym expansion in English.,flip,hold,False,True,91.7512,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:42:59.725000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I thought that in order for this to resolve yes, left and right eacg had to ""pick a side"" and become ""pro or anti AI"" ov",increase,flip,False,True,469.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-28T23:35:44.562000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,haha good guess on the chain of thought + RL !,hold,hold,True,True,31.1626,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T13:33:46.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming",decrease,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-19T18:12:57.054000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ok, thanks for the clarification!",flip,hold,False,True,6397.2756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",increase,flip,False,True,2.7866,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-29T20:44:52.026000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"looks like i misread the y axis, up was bad!!!",hold,flip,False,True,29951.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:15:29.842000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Thanks for adding more detail. I still disagree in both points tho. IMO there is some small chance that hard sub-problem,increase,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T02:58:13.200000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,The about page includes a link to a nonexistent history page in the header,hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-10-26T08:12:01.631000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Upd: I was thinking by end of 2024, not by end of 2025 and it got a bit higher, so Metaculus is at 37% now. I still thin",flip,flip,True,True,260.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-27T22:08:20.388000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Markets for silver and bronze:,decrease,hold,False,True,2234.6305,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:03:31.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,To point out the obvious: this question doesn't require the model to be open-sourced. It only requires Paul and Eliezer ,decrease,decrease,True,True,56051.7439,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-12T14:41:22.142000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Not arguing something that can win every CodeForces can just be given a 'do a pentest on this' or 'write a new javascrip,increase,increase,True,True,195.9168,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-28T23:43:37.362000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you think the people at lesswrong are about to solve safety??? I don't know of +any + actual safety researcher who agre",flip,flip,True,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T17:54:54.856000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"1795A + is not a version of the towers of Hanoi problem. But more importantly — GPT4 gets it wrong! Because it was writt",increase,increase,True,True,1409.4885,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-12-04T15:16:12.527000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Competitive programming: Ranked 21st of 100k people. +Won part of day three. +Now long this market. +There are probab",increase,flip,False,True,207.5319,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:34:22.179000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm interested in to what extent geometry problems were a bottleneck to IMO gold performance,flip,hold,False,True,7.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T21:50:25.998000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"@PeterBuyukliev + I don't know, the camel having 2 heads is the only thing that I would say is crappy, and this was a pr",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:59:55.178000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"In my opinion, this should not resolve yes yet, with respect to the ""non-crappy"" part of your question",increase,decrease,False,True,1279.4436,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T18:22:36.854000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitive_programming#Notable_competitions +this has not occurred and will not until an ",flip,hold,False,True,91.7512,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:57:40.416000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,even if DeepMind went full speed on this they would not be beating pros by the end of 2023.,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T06:03:13.406000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Could someone post a link to this?,increase,hold,False,True,2393.6883,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-26T22:02:50.483000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"IMO 2025 will be in July most likely, so we have like… 20 months? Seems like we’re likely to have GPT-5 by then, but is ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-25T21:55:49.930000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Only the first quote is possibly somewhat anti-AI as opposed to just anti woke AI, and even that is not really clear - e",flip,hold,False,True,275.0921,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",flip,flip,True,True,91.7512,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:32:06.465000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It obviously has clearer objectives than be walking a toddler because we know who has won a programming contest and we d,flip,increase,False,True,282.1302,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,flip,True,True,46.6964,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-28T21:20:53.258000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Interesting. +Gavin Newsom is vetoing 1 of every 6 bills. Here’s why +https://calmatters.org/politics/capitol/2024/09/n",increase,decrease,False,True,3931.6651,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-17T03:21:37.910000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I wouldn't (currently) take 50/50 odds on this but 20% is too low. This is a problem with 1) massive amounts of data ava,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:23:04.018000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"In the first screenshot above, the first question is about an option that will have an immediate effect on the game that",hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-18T23:49:47.426000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"skim every abstract from deepmind, then steer on your own from there. Of course retain your calibration from this update",flip,increase,False,True,91.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:30:48.434000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"agreed, this is one of the most mispriced markets on the site",increase,flip,False,True,48.8005,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:01:17.920000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Just sold all my shares (at a loss). +I’m still planning in resolving over the original stated criteria on the descripti",hold,flip,False,True,1223.7538,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T02:23:31.516000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I’ve tried with two different accounts and I got this both times. I’ve only tried on mobile so far, so potentially coul",hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:04:20.889000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So you see the update to the question and just ignore it, because it clearly has nothing to do with a question and is ad",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-15T23:37:05.834000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"or it could be like bots in many other areas (e.g. mathematical theorem proving, bipedal locomotion through a complex en",increase,hold,False,True,1399.4885,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T13:31:02.220000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"yes, this is just the tip of the iceberg. College Republican on a mission to be Tucker Carlson's sidekick pushing out th",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-29T21:31:01.479000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,More related markets potentially arbable with this:,increase,hold,False,True,1113.1649,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",decrease,hold,False,True,132.9585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:12:00.764000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I am betting on you not being proud of how many braincells you lose arguing with it.,decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-09T07:27:57.961000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I think the ACM ICPC world finals is the best place +https://icpc.global/ +. But IOI is good enough too, although it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1300.1504,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,hold,True,True,1025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T19:49:54.536000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"To be clear my markets are all meant to replicate the criteria of this market so this should be a pure arbitrage, but if",increase,hold,False,True,2656.3518,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-05-06T22:17:56.877000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Austin + Given the spread that's developed between this market at other IMO 2025 markets on manifold I think it would b",decrease,hold,False,True,6178.7581,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-19T18:26:00.730000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"FYI there seems to be about 246 free mana available by arbitraging your limit order against a limit order at 75% in +my",increase,hold,False,True,2130.5036,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:50:52.825000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"all ""Can AI do X"" markets have to define how strict they're being, from ""arbitrary prompt engineering allowed, any succe",hold,hold,True,True,37725.9866,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T08:08:12.752000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Here are its apparent solutions +https://github.com/aw31/openai-imo-2025-proofs/",hold,increase,False,True,227699.3642,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:37:30.744000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,My understanding is that this market depends on whether Paul/Eliezer agree that the feat of IMO Gold was accomplished. I,increase,hold,False,True,113818.8317,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-12-03T04:41:54.384000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Sure but is it in any way explicitly left vs right coded with pro and anti forces lined up on either side?,hold,decrease,False,True,1223.7538,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-18T02:13:35.675000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Read the description and comments again and you’ll see why this is insufficient to resolve,decrease,hold,False,True,794.2638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T03:52:31.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,increase,False,True,109.9889,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-24T02:17:11.716000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,That's pretty good. Be nice to see if it can demonstrate object permanence as well. Kind of reminds me of the Brothers Q,increase,hold,False,True,217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-02-17T11:33:27.514000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,It's funny how there keep being breakthroughs that you believed impossible and still find ways to rationalize that your ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:08:07.038000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Duncan any imo likely means 2023,2024 or 2025 IMO",flip,hold,False,True,0.6978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:24:17.459000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"(in the next year, specifically)",flip,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T22:36:08.452000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can I make a bet with you on that?,flip,flip,True,True,0.4474,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-02-08T10:38:24.037000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"AlphaCode 2 came out in December, with performance at the candidate master level, which is better than 90% of codeforces",hold,flip,False,True,27.6371,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-29T21:00:31.441000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Press release from Newsom here: +https://www.gov.ca.gov/2024/09/29/governor-newsom-announces-new-initiatives-to-advance",hold,hold,True,True,1272.0196,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:56:36.182000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The market relies on what Paul and Elizier say. So they could always decide to resolve early for some reason. +However,",decrease,increase,False,True,2100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-21T16:36:44.197000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"I didn't notice anywhere in the sample videos where one object passed in front of another object, which is what ""object ",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T19:48:19.130000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025. +So it includes 2025. The li",flip,hold,False,True,1452.2973,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T17:48:26.691000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment +Impressive indeed, however does this count f",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,decrease,decrease,True,True,23.207,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-30T18:37:35.419000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,if you wanna lose more mana I added some limit orders (or if you disagree or wanna hedge or whatever else),flip,hold,False,True,14920.6146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.0676,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1bd73f278ba89fe14070f7193b5ac7dfcb809be8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:27:09.514000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Ok sorry for some reason I had the impression that Manifold questions generically used by X year to mean before X year b,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,hold,False,True,5025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-12T19:17:41.494000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Note that there is one year difference between those questions.,decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:29:09.217000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlZkWcnnRt4 + They haven't fully solved the object permanence issue, but this is remarka",increase,increase,True,True,640.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T17:54:54.856000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"1795A + is not a version of the towers of Hanoi problem. But more importantly — GPT4 gets it wrong! Because it was writt",increase,increase,True,True,1409.4885,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T20:25:01.842000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Just checking for agreement on resolution criteria: I believe that this can only resolve on the actual 2025 IMO. So if y,increase,hold,False,True,2288.6496,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T05:00:29.665000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Economist calls on newsom to veto if it gets that far,hold,flip,False,True,125.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,flip,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:08:07.038000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Duncan any imo likely means 2023,2024 or 2025 IMO",flip,hold,False,True,0.6978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:28:38.254000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Updating even lower +“We encode a problem’s difficulty level from ‘1’ to ‘5’... while AIME problems are level 5. “ +“A p",increase,increase,True,True,344.7779,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False,True,16.6686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:15:29.842000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Thanks for adding more detail. I still disagree in both points tho. IMO there is some small chance that hard sub-problem,increase,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,increase,False,True,109.9889,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:45:34.613000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"idk why these edge cases aren't mentioned in the citizens guide, if true",flip,decrease,False,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T03:14:51.822000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Bit of a reach, don't you think?",hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:11:05.839000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"""Clearly the link you gave is more in the direction of LLMs than of alphazero."" +Oh, indeed. I had somehow missed that i",flip,hold,False,True,5075.5617,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:59:55.178000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"In my opinion, this should not resolve yes yet, with respect to the ""non-crappy"" part of your question",increase,decrease,False,True,1279.4436,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T22:54:09.065000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,yeah but bets made on hard empirical data with a clear unambiguous thresholds attract fewer participants and are therefo,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:56:45.533000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Isaac has said it’s about whether or not it becomes bug free (in his opinion), within the allocated budget. If Isaac di",hold,increase,False,True,3309.8468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T13:50:45.484000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'll happily milk these insane probabilities for as long as it continues. Hoping the price goes back above 30% to fill s,increase,hold,False,True,796.5469,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-21T21:43:31.903000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I've had good success with that prompt, but not with other prompts that would need to succeed as well for a YES resoluti",increase,decrease,False,True,22092.9866,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:48:56.270000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"AI can easily memorize every leetcode question and beat humans tomorrow, it's purely a function of organizational politi",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,flip,flip,True,True,229.4113,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",increase,flip,False,True,2.7866,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:12:14.409000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Time shouldn't be a factor if you could just scale compute to decrease time.,hold,increase,False,True,372.0846,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-18T00:05:17.620000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"To their credit, it looks like Peter bought YES and resolved NO in their analogous 2022 market.",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T13:33:46.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming",decrease,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T18:01:58.159000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"No idea what's going on in this market. Eliezer and Paul clearly agree on what the IMO is. +Curious about the reasoning ",flip,hold,False,True,119.4194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:42:59.343000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The gap between GPT-3, aka average verbal ability with loads of knowledge, and writing a philosophy Ph. D. thesis is vas",increase,increase,True,True,594.7779,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:07:07.721000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"If someone says something is ""possible"" what would that be as a rough range of probabilities? +ChatGPT: If someone says ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:32:42.433000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"sure, but ""can beat"" doesn't require beating humans where they are strongest. Chess AI could beat top players while it w",increase,flip,False,True,100.2312,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:21:52.903000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of +This resolves NO if SB 1047 doe",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-27T22:08:20.388000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Markets for silver and bronze:,decrease,hold,False,True,2234.6305,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:03:31.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,To point out the obvious: this question doesn't require the model to be open-sourced. It only requires Paul and Eliezer ,decrease,decrease,True,True,56051.7439,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T06:03:13.406000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Could someone post a link to this?,increase,hold,False,True,2393.6883,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,flip,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-24T22:25:41.839000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I want there to be an implicit ""and does at least as well as the existing models on the major existing benchmarks"" on ev",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",flip,increase,False,True,34.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T19:44:16.264000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I think it should resolve yes.,hold,flip,False,True,1300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:38:47.645000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,">The training loop was also applied during the contest, reinforcing proofs of self-generated variations of the contest p",increase,hold,False,True,1120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-19T18:12:57.054000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ok, thanks for the clarification!",flip,hold,False,True,6397.2756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-25T16:03:50.361000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Now that shortable multi-choice is out: A big market for all the possible years this could happen.,increase,flip,False,True,2953.4035,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-26T22:02:50.483000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"IMO 2025 will be in July most likely, so we have like… 20 months? Seems like we’re likely to have GPT-5 by then, but is ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:32:06.465000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It obviously has clearer objectives than be walking a toddler because we know who has won a programming contest and we d,flip,increase,False,True,282.1302,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-28T23:43:37.362000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you think the people at lesswrong are about to solve safety??? I don't know of +any + actual safety researcher who agre",flip,flip,True,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:16:05.912000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"the market in july probably had this priced in, but it doesn’t make sense to me that it spiked as much as it did because",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:11:31.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you're making the classic ai prediction mistake: look at one existing approach, determine that it can't do the crazy thi",flip,increase,False,True,91.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:30:34.424000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive programming is walking 10 toddlers that can do competitive sprinting.,increase,flip,False,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-04-06T05:46:31.255000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"So, about model eligibility: +- Does any image model in general count? +- Does any image model not trained explicitly fo",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",flip,decrease,False,True,181.7512,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T00:53:14.115000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That is only on geometry, which is arguably the one among ACGN which needs the least ad-hoc construction and creative pr",increase,increase,True,True,49.4358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T14:50:03.945000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I'm starting to think that either people cannot understand this market, or I'm wildly misunderstanding it. +Can I get co",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:04:20.889000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So you see the update to the question and just ignore it, because it clearly has nothing to do with a question and is ad",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-04T21:26:14.679000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"You have been assured the legislature won’t override the veto? How have you been assured of that? Lol +(Although I unde",increase,decrease,False,True,8249.926,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T13:31:02.220000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"yes, this is just the tip of the iceberg. College Republican on a mission to be Tucker Carlson's sidekick pushing out th",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:14:06.704000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"what have you learned that's caused you to buy more shares today, out of curiosity? Same question",increase,hold,False,True,48666.8933,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",decrease,hold,False,True,132.9585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:12:00.764000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I am betting on you not being proud of how many braincells you lose arguing with it.,decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-12-06T15:53:16.931000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this",hold,flip,False,True,3105.2685,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-03T04:20:20.404000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Another market for arbitrage/diversification,increase,hold,False,True,626.8439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-05-06T22:17:56.877000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Austin + Given the spread that's developed between this market at other IMO 2025 markets on manifold I think it would b",decrease,hold,False,True,6178.7581,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:32:40.320000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also worth noting perhaps that this was results from two different models. I’m curious how that might affect judging of,increase,hold,False,True,4526.3738,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True,True,436.1947,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-24T02:17:11.716000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,That's pretty good. Be nice to see if it can demonstrate object permanence as well. Kind of reminds me of the Brothers Q,increase,hold,False,True,217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T08:37:52.983000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"He's creating a specific chess variant called ""Black Ops Chess"", which I assume pychess does not have.",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-18T02:13:35.675000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Read the description and comments again and you’ll see why this is insufficient to resolve,decrease,hold,False,True,794.2638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T03:52:31.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T22:37:47.276000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"But for this market to resolve YES, one side has to be pro-AI, and the other anti-AI. At least, that is my understanding",hold,hold,True,True,9.6282,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T11:49:39.082000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,There are also validation issues. The IMO Grand Challenge this is based on requires the model be open sourced before IMO,increase,decrease,False,True,11381.0908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T16:40:00.192000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"isn't top-level competitive programming really hard? This would be something that, of tens of thousands of decent progra",increase,hold,False,True,195.9168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:51:29.998000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Cool. FWIW it seems to be able to draw +the + Pentagon most of the time.",flip,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",flip,flip,True,True,91.7512,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T19:48:19.130000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025. +So it includes 2025. The li",flip,hold,False,True,1452.2973,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T22:36:08.452000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can I make a bet with you on that?,flip,flip,True,True,0.4474,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T05:33:39.603000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"And the translation might actually be a very hard problem, because you might need something like an LLM, but with very",hold,decrease,False,True,1200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:34:55.493000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"A small update after reviewing the questions and solutions in more detail: for the questions deepmind's AI solved, the f",hold,hold,True,True,1199.7006,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:56:36.182000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The market relies on what Paul and Elizier say. So they could always decide to resolve early for some reason. +However,",decrease,increase,False,True,2100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T15:15:06.846000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,are you pasting in screenshots of the issues? Screenshots of browser dev tools? I assume MCP tools like Playwright are o,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,hold,True,True,1025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:36:45.284000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I can only speak for myself, but I also noticed this difference, and I'm trying hard to arbitrage by betting down this m",flip,decrease,False,True,8988.981,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T17:48:26.691000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment +Impressive indeed, however does this count f",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,decrease,decrease,True,True,23.207,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-18T22:13:36.560000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"correct, it would imply very short agi timelines.",flip,flip,True,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,hold,increase,False,True,450.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.0676,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6ade5a2b166c176dd0ca6c1617ffd9828769975c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,130 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-08T12:13:02.604000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Newsom has until September 30th to sign or veto, but there’s also a third option of Newsom does nothing by the deadline,",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T20:42:27.932000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,what was the gpt level 20 months ago?,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-04T19:33:40.247000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Tried your link and got very pentagonal results!,decrease,increase,False,True,11.825,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-24T02:17:11.716000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,That's pretty good. Be nice to see if it can demonstrate object permanence as well. Kind of reminds me of the Brothers Q,increase,hold,False,True,217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T16:40:00.192000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"isn't top-level competitive programming really hard? This would be something that, of tens of thousands of decent progra",increase,hold,False,True,195.9168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-27T13:48:24.898000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I still think this is considerably overpriced, even at 32%. For this to resolve yes, there doesn't just need to be cultu",increase,increase,True,True,1170.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-07T08:33:48.072000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"oh yeah but that's just geometry, right? It's still really cool tho! +AlphaGeometry2 solves 42 out of 50 of all 2000-202",flip,flip,True,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-03-31T23:31:45.663000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The difference between Eliezer's and Paul's statements is significant here, yeah. ""For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,flip,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-03T17:28:49.884000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Arbitrage or I'm missing something?,flip,flip,True,True,46.6964,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-28T16:08:29.900000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,It also didn't get the exact same question formulations as the humans did.,increase,hold,False,True,557.3581,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:33:41.663000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I mean, this conversation isn’t really related to the market, since this market is about AI generally, not LLMs. It does",decrease,hold,False,True,15021.9841,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-11-03T15:10:28.896000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Meta AI has built a neural theorem prover that has solved 10 +International Math Olympiad (IMO) + problems — 5x more th",increase,increase,True,True,1070.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-11-07T01:48:30.473000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Ai requires a level of interpretation ai will not be able to develop in 1 year of time,hold,decrease,False,True,8.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-29T19:54:21.243000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,Nothing released so far has come close to demonstrating object permanence,flip,decrease,False,True,4830.852,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True,True,436.1947,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T22:50:25.843000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"@JoyVoid Interest, wasn't aware of that!",flip,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:45:05.137000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"However, feel free to take my money. +Humans have a strong tendency to over estimate short term impact and under estimat",increase,hold,False,True,175.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T08:39:36.459000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Is this a part of the description?,decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-02T20:38:35.007000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"The recent progress is definitely more than I expected so soon, but the question asked for object permanency, and we hav",hold,increase,False,True,190.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T22:59:27.340000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm not any kind of researcher but I can see when a market is ambiguously defined and the creator has bought shares.,increase,flip,False,True,658.0791,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-08T19:08:13.873000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Speaking of the years, it might be clearer to edit the question to “by the end of 2025” or “before 2026”",increase,hold,False,True,7832.5654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-01-29T16:40:13.926000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"kind of, that piece of metal the robot is playing with doesn't really seem to have a consistent size",decrease,decrease,True,True,9.8975,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-20T17:35:25.881000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,@VictorLevoso You'll lose because it's simply too early. I don't think there will be enough GPUs to do that before June ,flip,flip,True,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T04:42:17.200000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Now buying at 42%, will do 45% if someone puts up a large limit order",increase,increase,True,True,42283.6995,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-09T05:50:15.485000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"rStar-Math showing roughly equivalent performance to o1-mini on benchmarks with a 14b model: +https://huggingface.co/pa",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,flip,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-21T02:32:20.243000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"No, they each have to pick a side.",decrease,flip,False,True,25.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T01:07:02.190000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I want to write a question a) with better specified rules, and b) that requires the result be achieved by the IMO 2025 o",flip,increase,False,True,6641.8654,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-02-17T05:38:01.492000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I partly agree with you. In particular, I think AI that will be significantly better than AlphaCode is possible and goin",increase,decrease,False,True,582.8198,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-29T20:51:36.268000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Pelosi noooooooooooooooooo go back to stocks!!,hold,flip,False,True,29951.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-16T23:56:16.888000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Just took this from 55% to 50%; take my ""no"" bet mostly as an emotional hedge.",increase,decrease,False,True,3999.9986,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-06T04:25:58.837000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"For what it's worth, I had interpreted this question as +reliably + beating humans in +most or all + competitive progr",flip,hold,False,True,91.7512,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T02:47:40.213000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"It stands for Faster Than Light, but I think what most people mean when they say it is a way to travel between two locat",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T07:42:54.355000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"""Official"" as in ""published somewhere other than arxiv"" because DeepMind cares about publishing in prestigious journals.",decrease,hold,False,True,700.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-22T19:12:28.721000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I am quite confident that this market is significantly more likely to resolve YES than the market on ""AI reaches the ge",increase,increase,True,True,19.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T00:57:49.097000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The question states +For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO +So it definitely includes the 2025 IMO. + ""By"" is sometimes ",flip,hold,False,True,6641.8654,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T09:39:39.514000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"That's probably workable, so long as your example prompt remains about the most difficult one to understand. +Probably t",increase,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-20T23:51:31.811000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"The description requires a binary situation, so given your statements it seems to me you should be betting NO. Whatever,",increase,flip,False,True,700.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-22T17:11:59.275000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,It also got a 95% on a preschool math test. My guess is it infers how smart it should be based on how hard the question ,flip,hold,False,True,190.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T21:50:25.998000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"@PeterBuyukliev + I don't know, the camel having 2 heads is the only thing that I would say is crappy, and this was a pr",hold,hold,True,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-19T20:50:14.498000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"The big video of teddy bear playing a guitar has a failure of object permanence (where its hand moves, things appear and",increase,increase,True,True,370.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T18:20:51.352000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,what do you think about the models shared in the comments?,flip,hold,False,True,585.5444,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:57:40.416000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,even if DeepMind went full speed on this they would not be beating pros by the end of 2023.,hold,increase,False,True,30.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:11:19.336000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,it's not surprising that it wouldn't make much noise over half of a year though. usually second iterations of google pro,increase,hold,False,True,406889.5296,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-18T11:10:41.031000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Here’s my first imagen3 attempt +So that suggests a ballpark of 50%, which is not close to the 95% threshold needed (of",decrease,increase,False,True,794.2638,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-18T00:18:25.746000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"After actually reading the AlphaGeo paper, I'm much more skeptical of this approach generalizing to other IMO subjects. ",flip,decrease,False,True,1361.0968,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T22:33:45.873000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I am involved with deep learning. scaling is not all you need, but it's a hell of a lot of it. understand deep learning ",flip,increase,False,True,125.6683,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T02:40:42.093000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"What's FTL? Not ""faster than light"", right?",flip,hold,False,True,135.9431,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-24T18:44:36.907000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Since 2023 market is on track to resolve to NO, here's one for 2024",flip,hold,False,True,1216.6137,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T03:36:52.399000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can we get some more well defined resolution criteria here? Maybe something to make it clear that this is about competit,increase,decrease,False,True,599.5469,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T20:45:47.801000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I agree that Google would try to find a way to use an AI that can do that. I'm not sure what your point is?,flip,hold,False,True,41.188,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:24:09.473000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Haha! It has successfully learned how to give responses to bug reports that sound like a programmer,hold,flip,False,True,3309.8468,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-28T13:48:10.997000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I've created a market about which side will be which, conditional on this one resolving YES.",flip,hold,False,True,145.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-12T23:13:56.407000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,a more accurate model of reality to be sure but the wager is specifically reductionist to left/right. A multiple choice ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T00:31:52.058000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"Reminder of my proposed operalization in a hedge question from a few months ago: +https://manifold.markets/dp/will-will",increase,hold,False,True,2804.5419,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T18:13:19.553000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Yes, or any other reasonable proxy for left and right in a US context. They both have to care and be on opposite sides.",hold,hold,True,True,1223.7538,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T19:19:03.907000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"increasingly worried that an AI will not, in fact, "" +get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025 +"" but that El",decrease,flip,False,True,1791.8435,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T02:31:46.366000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"I promoted to a queen. The following turn my opponent moved their king that was also in their back rank, and the symbol",hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:10:58.884000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"It's gearing up that way as a result of ChatGPT's buzz and bias, but it's definitely not clear that someone saying somet",decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-09-05T04:29:53.311000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"In addition to the 95% threshold, there are very difficult-for-AI prompts that fall under the category, ""Any reasonable ",increase,increase,True,True,6734.3189,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:20:08.557000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Thanks. Why didn't you pick it up?,decrease,flip,False,True,3026.6022,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-25T20:35:00.826000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,the author said he pulled everything together with an editor.,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:47:38.473000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Hahaha, LOL at the skeptics who think this wouldn't be done by 2025",increase,increase,True,True,1100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T02:38:50.709000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I don't think this is weird hypocrisy at all, if it is even hypocrisy it's normal hypocrisy. +You can absolutely like w",decrease,hold,False,True,32.9585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-03T11:45:08.155000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"Reasons why I think p(veto) < 50%: Newsom seems fairly intelligent to me, Weiner seems very intelligent as well and seem",decrease,increase,False,True,739.0568,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-09T07:27:57.961000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"I think the ACM ICPC world finals is the best place +https://icpc.global/ +. But IOI is good enough too, although it's ",hold,hold,True,True,1300.1504,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,hold,True,True,1025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:21:00.678000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I believe that's the case, the close date is also Jan 1, 2026. Some people weirdly mean ""by X"" as ""up to X"".",increase,hold,False,True,840.6255,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:49:34.340000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,yeah that's really good. I would say for certain stylistic cartoons it already qualifies. Wherther the odd janky hands a,decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:14:06.704000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"what have you learned that's caused you to buy more shares today, out of curiosity? Same question",increase,hold,False,True,48666.8933,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:57:22.797000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"This issue is that the question is titled ""will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?"" and not ""Will e",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-16T23:25:20.979000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Obviously not. I meant within reason, just like I wouldn't bet on anyone but God being able to create a universe tomorro",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-19T12:18:54.643000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,could you share the tweets? i was hoping they would give some indication like that but hadn't seen any,hold,hold,True,True,639659.6967,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T21:05:45.607000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'm not saying there aren't such problems in the later days of AoC (I personally am not familiar with it). But it's clea,increase,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-12-05T15:28:24.032000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,Fair enough. I think 2024 market will resolve YES.,hold,hold,True,True,370.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-29T22:54:14.792000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"thanks! Yeah I think of NVR and No votes as having different political upside/downside for the legislator (""No"" lets you",decrease,hold,False,True,2300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-11T01:13:20.129000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"And not just some people. A +lot + of people are using GPT-3 and text-to-image technologies. The speed of takeup and th",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:00:47.133000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Some old markets of mine relevant to the discussion,increase,hold,False,True,1508.7828,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-14T19:10:50.791000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"There's a decent amount about HumanEval in the report as well, much more than for Codeforces / Leetcode — I don't think ",increase,hold,False,True,1089.4885,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:22:58.863000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,">100k people but go off about how some tiny academic thing is the real +competitive programming",flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-05-15T17:39:37.529000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Some of the questions they are planning on asking: +""Mr. Altman, one of my VCR tapes has some of the tape stringing out ",decrease,increase,False,True,43.0676,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-29T00:55:12.553000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"To bet on safety being solved, you lend money to an AI doomer, to be repaid once safety is solved, at some interest rate",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:26:03.343000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,I will ask claude to explain the legal procedings to me ig..,flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-17T20:21:55.810000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I'm skeptical that Eliezer and I will end up disagreeing about this. If no one actually demonstrates their AI system get,hold,hold,True,True,1300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-03T12:55:30.148000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"This is an Austin market, I doubt it will resolve based on a fake IMO.",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T15:36:57.966000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Good demo, but still in crappy territory. Hoping to see a lot of progress in the near future. If you read the paper, you",decrease,decrease,True,True,263.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-21T16:36:44.197000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"I didn't notice anywhere in the sample videos where one object passed in front of another object, which is what ""object ",hold,hold,True,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-30T07:41:15.596000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I think conservative-coded, for both questions. (And the win, of course, happened by swaying some of the enemies to thei",hold,hold,True,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",flip,decrease,False,True,181.7512,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T16:38:56.789000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,And it seemed the only way to then get back to the main menu was to press the concede button...,decrease,hold,False,True,44.1193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T02:44:30.200000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"A machine that creates art, +With a single click to start, +But can it make videos that sing? +Only time will tell, ding",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-15T21:19:41.960000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Seems roughly consistent with the Manifold price, accounting for interest rates.",flip,hold,False,True,1838.9687,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-17T23:30:01.504000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I have made a huge chunk of my profit betting against AI.,hold,increase,False,True,14.9409,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T16:30:32.835000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I've convinced myself to sell my NO shares and switch to YES.,decrease,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1bd73f278ba89fe14070f7193b5ac7dfcb809be8 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-03-25T21:27:09.514000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Ok sorry for some reason I had the impression that Manifold questions generically used by X year to mean before X year b,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-03T17:15:15.609000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"That said, I expect a featured spot on Tucker approximately instantly, and very soon online discourse on AI is going to ",decrease,hold,False,True,5025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-12-12T19:17:41.494000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Note that there is one year difference between those questions.,decrease,hold,False,True,56051.7439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-27T04:29:09.217000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlZkWcnnRt4 + They haven't fully solved the object permanence issue, but this is remarka",increase,increase,True,True,640.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T17:54:54.856000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"1795A + is not a version of the towers of Hanoi problem. But more importantly — GPT4 gets it wrong! Because it was writt",increase,increase,True,True,1409.4885,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T20:25:01.842000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Just checking for agreement on resolution criteria: I believe that this can only resolve on the actual 2025 IMO. So if y,increase,hold,False,True,2288.6496,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-04T16:38:59.351000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Overheard above “Stanford Binet is not exactly a measure of IQ” “Jeopardy is not exactly a measure of general knowledge”,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-08-24T05:00:29.665000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,Economist calls on newsom to veto if it gets that far,hold,flip,False,True,125.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T14:00:41.698000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047 +> Enrolled  September 03, 2024 +> ",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T18:06:08.110000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,people still don't get how ai progress moves. code generation will be starkly superintelligent by the end of 2023.,flip,increase,False,True,51.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-07-23T05:08:07.038000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Duncan any imo likely means 2023,2024 or 2025 IMO",flip,hold,False,True,0.6978,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:28:38.254000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Updating even lower +“We encode a problem’s difficulty level from ‘1’ to ‘5’... while AIME problems are level 5. “ +“A p",increase,increase,True,True,344.7779,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-11-07T17:39:03.833000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 +Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive prog",decrease,hold,False,True,16.6686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:15:29.842000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Thanks for adding more detail. I still disagree in both points tho. IMO there is some small chance that hard sub-problem,increase,decrease,False,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T16:20:28.693000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,John Oliver did a bit about chatgpt. I think that should qualify it as partisan now.,hold,increase,False,True,109.9889,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:45:34.613000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"idk why these edge cases aren't mentioned in the citizens guide, if true",flip,decrease,False,True,56244.2705,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-03-22T03:14:51.822000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Bit of a reach, don't you think?",hold,flip,False,True,1000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-12-04T22:41:34.464000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Could you at least resolve this as NA and refund us given that you seem to have meant something very different from ""wil",hold,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-22T20:11:05.839000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"""Clearly the link you gave is more in the direction of LLMs than of alphazero."" +Oh, indeed. I had somehow missed that i",flip,hold,False,True,5075.5617,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T17:59:55.178000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"In my opinion, this should not resolve yes yet, with respect to the ""non-crappy"" part of your question",increase,decrease,False,True,1279.4436,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T22:54:09.065000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,yeah but bets made on hard empirical data with a clear unambiguous thresholds attract fewer participants and are therefo,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-20T21:56:45.533000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"Isaac has said it’s about whether or not it becomes bug free (in his opinion), within the allocated budget. If Isaac di",hold,increase,False,True,3309.8468,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-17T13:50:45.484000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,I'll happily milk these insane probabilities for as long as it continues. Hoping the price goes back above 30% to fill s,increase,hold,False,True,796.5469,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-21T21:43:31.903000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I've had good success with that prompt, but not with other prompts that would need to succeed as well for a YES resoluti",increase,decrease,False,True,22092.9866,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T13:48:56.270000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"AI can easily memorize every leetcode question and beat humans tomorrow, it's purely a function of organizational politi",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-09-29T18:17:44.972000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,So crappy they immediately ghosted their own Twitter account:,flip,flip,True,True,229.4113,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-30T03:48:08.226000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Funnily enough, I made an update in the exact opposite direction. (Edit: I’ve tried to make this as accurate as possible",increase,flip,False,True,2.7866,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:12:14.409000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Time shouldn't be a factor if you could just scale compute to decrease time.,hold,increase,False,True,372.0846,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-18T00:05:17.620000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"To their credit, it looks like Peter bought YES and resolved NO in their analogous 2022 market.",flip,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T13:33:46.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming",decrease,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-02-27T18:01:58.159000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"No idea what's going on in this market. Eliezer and Paul clearly agree on what the IMO is. +Curious about the reasoning ",flip,hold,False,True,119.4194,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2022-09-25T23:42:59.343000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The gap between GPT-3, aka average verbal ability with loads of knowledge, and writing a philosophy Ph. D. thesis is vas",increase,increase,True,True,594.7779,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-16T04:07:07.721000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"If someone says something is ""possible"" what would that be as a rough range of probabilities? +ChatGPT: If someone says ",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-30T22:32:42.433000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"sure, but ""can beat"" doesn't require beating humans where they are strongest. Chess AI could beat top players while it w",increase,flip,False,True,100.2312,FLIP,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2022-12-26T23:33:41.764000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"I am fairly sure that the left is more against AI than the right, at least in my circles. And they seem to be using lang",hold,increase,False,True,200.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-09T13:21:52.903000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"confirmation that polymarket != this one? I don’t have confirmation. It’s my reading of +This resolves NO if SB 1047 doe",flip,hold,False,True,56244.2705,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-11-27T22:08:20.388000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Markets for silver and bronze:,decrease,hold,False,True,2234.6305,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T12:03:31.786000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,To point out the obvious: this question doesn't require the model to be open-sourced. It only requires Paul and Eliezer ,decrease,decrease,True,True,56051.7439,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T06:03:13.406000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Could someone post a link to this?,increase,hold,False,True,2393.6883,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-18T12:30:58.575000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,@Sjilver I'd rather not go into the details too much; if you're capable of contributing to the project you can find the ,flip,increase,False,True,51.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-02-24T22:25:41.839000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I want there to be an implicit ""and does at least as well as the existing models on the major existing benchmarks"" on ev",increase,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-24T04:24:43.510000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,is THAT what the market is positing? So an algorithm that can beat a top human at even a single coding challenge would b,increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-07-04T20:05:02.595000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Atari-quality cartoons maybe. But the sheer amount of compute per frame of Dalle2 is extraordinary, and video would requ",flip,increase,False,True,34.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-07-21T19:44:16.264000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,I think it should resolve yes.,hold,flip,False,True,1300.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:38:47.645000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,">The training loop was also applied during the contest, reinforcing proofs of self-generated variations of the contest p",increase,hold,False,True,1120.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-05-19T18:12:57.054000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Ok, thanks for the clarification!",flip,hold,False,True,6397.2756,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-06-17T15:23:56.681000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Uhhh no it does not? Object permanence means something in the background can be obscured temporarily, and then it will s",hold,decrease,False,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-06-25T16:03:50.361000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Now that shortable multi-choice is out: A big market for all the possible years this could happen.,increase,flip,False,True,2953.4035,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-10-26T22:02:50.483000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"IMO 2025 will be in July most likely, so we have like… 20 months? Seems like we’re likely to have GPT-5 by then, but is ",decrease,decrease,True,True,100.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:32:06.465000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It obviously has clearer objectives than be walking a toddler because we know who has won a programming contest and we d,flip,increase,False,True,282.1302,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-28T23:43:37.362000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you think the people at lesswrong are about to solve safety??? I don't know of +any + actual safety researcher who agre",flip,flip,True,True,160.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-01-28T16:16:05.912000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"the market in july probably had this priced in, but it doesn’t make sense to me that it spiked as much as it did because",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-15T08:11:31.390000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"you're making the classic ai prediction mistake: look at one existing approach, determine that it can't do the crazy thi",flip,increase,False,True,91.7512,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-10T15:30:34.424000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Competitive programming is walking 10 toddlers that can do competitive sprinting.,increase,flip,False,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-03-16T14:52:46.014000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,mark me down as someone who does not think substring checks are at all sufficient to show a lack of contamination! That',flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-04-06T05:46:31.255000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"So, about model eligibility: +- Does any image model in general count? +- Does any image model not trained explicitly fo",hold,hold,True,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-01-17T21:46:38.502000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"deepmind, the most likely group to do this, seems to be giving signs they intend to slow down. This is a black swan for ",flip,decrease,False,True,181.7512,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-04-04T10:41:28.155000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"DeepSeek has paper that gives much more details on LLMs+TreeSearch +https://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.08152",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-01-19T00:53:14.115000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That is only on geometry, which is arguably the one among ACGN which needs the least ad-hoc construction and creative pr",increase,increase,True,True,49.4358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-18T00:02:50.612000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"For better or for worse, there is definitely a dynamic of nonpartisan issues becoming polarized after overreaction to st",hold,hold,True,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T15:51:34.567000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Worth noting that it used up to three days on 3 of 4 solutions. +> In the official competition, students submit answers ",decrease,decrease,True,True,300.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-18T14:50:03.945000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"I'm starting to think that either people cannot understand this market, or I'm wildly misunderstanding it. +Can I get co",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:04:20.889000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"So you see the update to the question and just ignore it, because it clearly has nothing to do with a question and is ad",decrease,flip,False,True,56051.7439,FLIP,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-04T21:26:14.679000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"You have been assured the legislature won’t override the veto? How have you been assured of that? Lol +(Although I unde",increase,decrease,False,True,8249.926,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2022-10-03T01:16:49.324000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,"Phenaki shows very strong grasp of object perspective, rotation, zoom, layering, and permanency. +One can debate whethe",decrease,increase,False,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-01-13T13:31:02.220000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"yes, this is just the tip of the iceberg. College Republican on a mission to be Tucker Carlson's sidekick pushing out th",decrease,increase,False,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe,2024-09-26T00:14:06.704000+00:00,Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?,"what have you learned that's caused you to buy more shares today, out of curiosity? Same question",increase,hold,False,True,48666.8933,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-03-31T05:29:54.368000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"Democrats are already freaking out about AI, nearly every opinion article in the liberal media has a neutral-to-negative",decrease,hold,False,True,132.9585,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-13T21:12:00.764000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,I am betting on you not being proud of how many braincells you lose arguing with it.,decrease,flip,False,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-21T03:03:04.876000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,this may be happens anytime you’re in a game?,hold,hold,True,True,3309.8468,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-12-06T15:53:16.931000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this",hold,flip,False,True,3105.2685,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-04-03T04:20:20.404000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Another market for arbitrage/diversification,increase,hold,False,True,626.8439,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-05-06T22:17:56.877000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"@Austin + Given the spread that's developed between this market at other IMO 2025 markets on manifold I think it would b",decrease,hold,False,True,6178.7581,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-25T16:32:40.320000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,Also worth noting perhaps that this was results from two different models. I’m curious how that might affect judging of,increase,hold,False,True,4526.3738,HOLD,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-05-27T11:19:59.094000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,I think it's whitelist access now.,hold,hold,True,True,436.1947,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-06-12T19:12:48.259000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-06-21T18:03:27.939000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"That leaves us with gray zones currently, right? For instance a reputable lab could still claim that they achieved it in",hold,decrease,False,True,5.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +fLLt58d4DpHf2d4eJnzr,2023-04-24T02:17:11.716000+00:00,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,That's pretty good. Be nice to see if it can demonstrate object permanence as well. Kind of reminds me of the Brothers Q,increase,hold,False,True,217.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T08:37:52.983000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,"He's creating a specific chess variant called ""Black Ops Chess"", which I assume pychess does not have.",hold,increase,False,True,725.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-10-18T02:13:35.675000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,Read the description and comments again and you’ll see why this is insufficient to resolve,decrease,hold,False,True,794.2638,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-11-27T03:52:31.819000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,thanks for thoughtful discussion. I made my own market instead of continuing to beef about this one.,decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-27T22:37:47.276000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"But for this market to resolve YES, one side has to be pro-AI, and the other anti-AI. At least, that is my understanding",hold,hold,True,True,9.6282,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-29T11:49:39.082000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,There are also validation issues. The IMO Grand Challenge this is based on requires the model be open sourced before IMO,increase,decrease,False,True,11381.0908,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-09T16:40:00.192000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"isn't top-level competitive programming really hard? This would be something that, of tens of thousands of decent progra",increase,hold,False,True,195.9168,HOLD,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2023-12-30T06:51:29.998000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,"Cool. FWIW it seems to be able to draw +the + Pentagon most of the time.",flip,hold,False,True,15.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-05T00:01:19.593000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"The history of the prompts that I used to generate it can be seen: +https://imgur.com/a/2bY7i3E",decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-12-10T11:12:35.546000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"also, competitive programming is much easier than the full suite of judgement skills a programmer needs. humans who over",flip,flip,True,True,91.7512,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-04-23T19:48:19.130000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025. +So it includes 2025. The li",flip,hold,False,True,1452.2973,HOLD,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-11-11T22:36:08.452000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,Can I make a bet with you on that?,flip,flip,True,True,0.4474,FLIP,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T05:33:39.603000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"And the translation might actually be a very hard problem, because you might need something like an LLM, but with very",hold,decrease,False,True,1200.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-07-26T09:34:55.493000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"A small update after reviewing the questions and solutions in more detail: for the questions deepmind's AI solved, the f",hold,hold,True,True,1199.7006,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2024-12-20T21:56:36.182000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"The market relies on what Paul and Elizier say. So they could always decide to resolve early for some reason. +However,",decrease,increase,False,True,2100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-15T15:15:06.846000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,are you pasting in screenshots of the issues? Screenshots of browser dev tools? I assume MCP tools like Playwright are o,hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2023-08-04T15:17:25.763000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr,hold,hold,True,True,1025.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2023-07-02T09:36:45.284000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"I can only speak for myself, but I also noticed this difference, and I'm trying hard to arbitrage by betting down this m",flip,decrease,False,True,8988.981,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz,2025-02-18T17:48:26.691000+00:00,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/alphageometry2-impressive-accomplishment +Impressive indeed, however does this count f",decrease,decrease,True,True,120.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +hN50NsnsNl,2025-10-14T08:30:31.901000+00:00,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,Tried it on mobile and not going to lie it felt like a buggy mess. One of my rows and columns was cutoff and I couldn't ,decrease,decrease,True,True,23.207,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +EygA0P2reULSDzKiIkXF,2022-02-18T22:13:36.560000+00:00,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,"correct, it would imply very short agi timelines.",flip,flip,True,True,41.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +HynIom2k85qg7GlU4gfC,2024-05-15T22:29:01.509000+00:00,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,I didn’t test in depth but 4o got this first try,hold,increase,False,True,450.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +VN1RfimX7PJUnHhYNDiF,2023-02-06T17:06:30.591000+00:00,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,"So here's a new, interesting take from today's headlines. I'm sure many of you saw the news that the A.I. generated Sein",decrease,decrease,True,True,23.0676,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f4ed5a63a18c17fd30fd431d48eeb83b816ea2e1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.18638928086109505,0.9713579228687123,0.7849686420076172,UP,0.7538953867756658,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,46,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +1,0.7388909163047259,0.02131541681361643,-0.7175754994911094,DOWN,0.47119082274402124,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?,20,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.6999999999999998,0.018240048742597142,-0.6817599512574027,DOWN,0.2698368693227175,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,28,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.49502499876243766,0.14984827904623446,-0.34517671971620323,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,11,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9b8c9ba343d8667207b310e5098b0e9c38d09d79 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_ai/qwen3_manifold_tech_ai_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.4950249987624376,0.17091293666423393,-0.32411206209820365,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will I be able to vibecode a full fairy chess website?,18,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.6040999957655829,0.5130227409725795,-0.09107725479300344,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.84,0.4935614815540852,-0.3464385184459148,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.1863892808610951,0.35243295225158255,0.16604367139048745,UP,0.15546748819728365,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,14,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.1863892808610951,0.3919656484771914,0.2055763676160963,UP,0.076473806467266,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.7,0.2760238293647261,-0.4239761706352739,DOWN,0.014865795900375426,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.18638928086109507,0.8052786677635042,0.6188893869024091,UP,0.944371424942931,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,19,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.7,0.05478822129048694,-0.6452117787095131,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?,2,DOWN,qwen3:32b +8,0.1863892808610951,0.21323748683419402,0.02684820597309892,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +9,0.6040999957655829,0.5273119290407979,-0.076788066724785,DOWN,0.9862329230520951,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +10,0.6040999957655829,0.7343393148736763,0.1302393191080934,UP,0.4723260758008944,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,26,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.604099995765583,0.3060276808100075,-0.29807231495557557,DOWN,0.2849502055437189,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?,43,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/commitment_validity_manifold_tech_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/commitment_validity_manifold_tech_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3fac795b0703d241628a97a67952b86f01f2837b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/commitment_validity_manifold_tech_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/tech_other", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 44, + "n_wrong_bettors": 26, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.5909, + "n_directional": 20, + "n_follows_commitment": 8, + "n_follows_truth": 12, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.4, + "binom_p": 0.8684, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "skip": "n_hp_dir=37<40" + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/did_manifold_tech_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/did_manifold_tech_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c927e61221afac397652bff9aa66aa99732ba9e2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/did_manifold_tech_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "data_source": "manifold/tech_other", + "n_pre_directional": 54, + "n_post_directional": 37, + "da_pre_gt_resolution": 0.6111, + "da_post_gt_resolution": 0.5946, + "da_post_gt_position": 0.4865, + "did": -0.0165, + "paired_sign_test": { + "skip": "n_pairs=0<10" + }, + "wrong_bettor_da_post_gt_resolution": 0.6 +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..498d3c1d7f2828d1070e16ee47ac3a44efb54afc --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T14:04:50.071000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I won't solve to YES due to Spaces.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-07T13:01:32.765000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"no, I already had whiplash on this market and with all the controversy wouldn't count on the most solid and specific of ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:43:49.243000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I have had access to the Google Search experiment for a month already and commented on it somewhere below and I am still,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:41:10.063000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought in at 97% or so, thinking I was betting on an event which had just occured. This market wiped out my all time p",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T18:47:36.976000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I sold my position. It seems that if the current headlines on a 15 hour outage are not considered enough, it’s less than",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:58.167000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:20:55.330000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I'm wondering if ""person on the street"" is just a bad benchmark to use, either for being too low a bar or for bein",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T10:51:22.870000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T17:05:51.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,... Seems to work fine in Spanish using ChatGPT and Google Translate as a metric. That's up to 40 million people in the ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T16:26:05.156000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:10:32.675000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Idk, that's an inference, but that doesn't matter because the market creator's statements are pretty direct. Apple needs",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:07:02.178000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Note that announcement is not enough, there has to be at least early access for some outsiders before March 31st.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:01:09.795000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,For the record I bought my large NO holdings after I wrote and posted my above argument to show that I believe in what I,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:19:30.851000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,the banned troll is always and forevermore victorious once again,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T02:56:33.793000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:38:58.860000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I don't think ascii art should count as pure text, even though technically it is. Also I did say ""single prompt""..",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-07T06:49:26.876000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",i sold a bit because i dont like dogs,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:41:14.623000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Who is ""firm on how they intend to resolve""? Rai's most recent comment says, ""yes i'd be super happy to just transfer t",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:05:42.835000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"sorry for delay. I think I’d guarantee another episode for $300, if you really want to finance it! +note that price may ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:45.429000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"If you're literally just reading out market prices I'm not sure that qualifies as ""original content"".",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T08:24:04.717000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"For anyone confused why people are mad, +this is what the page looked like on March 26 +. +The title was changed from ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-22T18:09:15.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,A year to basically completely revamp a product in charge of >$160B/year revenue is ridiculously fast,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-19T19:00:52.547000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I'd buy some YES in this market if Leagues were changed to solely focus on predictive profit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:52:08.281000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Ok maybe I’m just brainfoggy rn but I can’t spot the error,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:55:33.646000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"much appreciated! I sold my YES at -3297 a few days ago. +Imo this should resolve NA regardless. Most traders here bet ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:26:12.817000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,All 3 of these are hilarious. A+. You have my confidence in YES.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:56:02.615000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the person I can most easily imagine paying this is +. I'm not gonna spend time seeking funding though because that con",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:38:01.831000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I did not understand that using tools + engines would be allowed since this makes the whole thing WAY less impressive. H,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-13T06:30:29.201000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think it will be that hard to determine whether the GPT-4 aspect matters. There are basically 3 options: +He mad",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:17:55.323000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If people are holding expecting market fluctuations, that's one thing, but if you are saying this market is priced 15-20",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:48:43.341000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It’s way too late for that unfortunately. This is now the second most traded market in Manifold history so if you wanna ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T19:01:23.424000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think my human brain did imagine at first that the person was climbing a small number of stories and looking down into,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:42:51.737000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'd agree but I didn't make 154 losses on that trade, nor did I have 155 profit before! I sold those shares at the price",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-28T00:17:59.561000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I misspoke; these were Yes shares that I sold.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T17:45:45.849000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Trying to give a breakdown on my understanding of this market because I might write a more extended blog post on this to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:06:46.485000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"actually, $150 limited time offer this week only",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T21:00:30.060000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"to me +bard.google.com + provides it's response of it's not available in your region yet!!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:44:22.012000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yep, selling my position as well. I have no doubt this will be resolved NO due to a technicality on the way you interact",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T00:46:32.993000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, all the errors from o3 that I've seen on tricksy questions like that are quite human-like. See also FAQ5. When in ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:28:52.123000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Kenshin is 99% confident + of a February release, so get those 5x EV gains betting February up on + .",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T22:49:50.689000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I am planning to train a transformer model to play chess, and traders here might be interested in guessing what its Elo ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T22:38:45.906000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,for remaining ambiguity: it doesn't strike me as super obvious that the average street walker could answer that either? ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2024-01-26T14:12:42.184000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,📢I have given a poll to manifold staff. Should know in 24 hours to resolve this.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T23:23:22.040000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Enjoy the shares! I've really enjoyed my 43 minutes in this market.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-30T23:44:27.314000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I sold at -M3297 profit - half my portfolio gone - after betting on an event that had already happened 😬,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:48:37.607000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think based on the description this should resolve no? But originally based on the title I bought yes, so this market ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:29:06.308000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think we have different mental models of the general populace. I don’t think most people would struggle to figure out ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T03:00:57.402000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Ok guys. A little bit of housekeeping. +I plan to report resolve it as a YES if it's on the frontpage of a major news o",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T18:15:26.427000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Short term market set up for this tighter time frame: +https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-o",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T21:04:06.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"There's a spectrum of answers of increasing correctness and it's a bit of a judgment call where the ""egregiously wrong"" ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T20:37:16.236000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Summarizing the issue with ""by"" vs ""at"", correct me if this summary is wrong: The original question title was ""Will Goog",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:53:49.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"not everyone's first language is English, so buy at your own risk. The direct translation in their native language of by",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:26:13.292000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'm sure I'm biased, though, as + points out, this was my understanding since before I bought No. +My opinion is at lea",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:25:06.845000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Trader bonuses are capped at 100 traders = 500 mana = $5. It used to be double, or $10.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-06T17:09:02.446000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","that would be great motivation, but unfortunately I have my own reasons to think they won't release it before the EoM, s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T23:35:22.850000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I'm leaving this market open for trading a bit longer but I'm considering the deadline for prompts to have passed. So at,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:29:37.916000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Are you saying it's mispriced 15-20% and that it should be 5-10)? It's a little confusing because 5-10% could mean it's ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:22:00.326000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't believe this market is still active. I exited weeks ago. Like, after the title change, still NONE of you know ho",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:51:30.953000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"It's the same for me, the leaderboard seems much more meaningful than leagues and it's unfortunate that it's been deemp",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T17:56:28.218000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,This feature has radically changed the way I use Manifold for the better from a user experience perspective. I can’t get,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T23:56:43.035000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,You must be new to manifold markets then. Most markets here don't get resolved in the spirit of the market but on the mi,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:03:03.957000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I also think some people are holding YES or NO in expectation of market fluctuations, rather than expectations of resolu",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T23:21:24.914000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T23:05:43.048000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T10:45:30.591000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,but I don't after all! i sold and it's back to +1 so idgi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T22:59:47.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Resolving YES now is not appropriate, because it does not fulfill the requirements of it being generally available. Hypo",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7acb7f0ae8421e745c250fc7c631e094fc127887 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,110 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T14:04:50.071000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I won't solve to YES due to Spaces.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-07T13:01:32.765000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"no, I already had whiplash on this market and with all the controversy wouldn't count on the most solid and specific of ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:43:49.243000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I have had access to the Google Search experiment for a month already and commented on it somewhere below and I am still,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:41:10.063000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought in at 97% or so, thinking I was betting on an event which had just occured. This market wiped out my all time p",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T18:47:36.976000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I sold my position. It seems that if the current headlines on a 15 hour outage are not considered enough, it’s less than",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:58.167000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:20:55.330000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I'm wondering if ""person on the street"" is just a bad benchmark to use, either for being too low a bar or for bein",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T10:51:22.870000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T17:05:51.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,... Seems to work fine in Spanish using ChatGPT and Google Translate as a metric. That's up to 40 million people in the ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T16:26:05.156000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:10:32.675000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Idk, that's an inference, but that doesn't matter because the market creator's statements are pretty direct. Apple needs",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:07:02.178000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Note that announcement is not enough, there has to be at least early access for some outsiders before March 31st.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:01:09.795000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,For the record I bought my large NO holdings after I wrote and posted my above argument to show that I believe in what I,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:19:30.851000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,the banned troll is always and forevermore victorious once again,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T02:56:33.793000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:38:58.860000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I don't think ascii art should count as pure text, even though technically it is. Also I did say ""single prompt""..",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-07T06:49:26.876000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",i sold a bit because i dont like dogs,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:41:14.623000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Who is ""firm on how they intend to resolve""? Rai's most recent comment says, ""yes i'd be super happy to just transfer t",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:05:42.835000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"sorry for delay. I think I’d guarantee another episode for $300, if you really want to finance it! +note that price may ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:45.429000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"If you're literally just reading out market prices I'm not sure that qualifies as ""original content"".",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T08:24:04.717000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"For anyone confused why people are mad, +this is what the page looked like on March 26 +. +The title was changed from ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-22T18:09:15.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,A year to basically completely revamp a product in charge of >$160B/year revenue is ridiculously fast,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-19T19:00:52.547000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I'd buy some YES in this market if Leagues were changed to solely focus on predictive profit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:52:08.281000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Ok maybe I’m just brainfoggy rn but I can’t spot the error,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:55:33.646000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"much appreciated! I sold my YES at -3297 a few days ago. +Imo this should resolve NA regardless. Most traders here bet ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:26:12.817000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,All 3 of these are hilarious. A+. You have my confidence in YES.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:56:02.615000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the person I can most easily imagine paying this is +. I'm not gonna spend time seeking funding though because that con",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:38:01.831000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I did not understand that using tools + engines would be allowed since this makes the whole thing WAY less impressive. H,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-13T06:30:29.201000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think it will be that hard to determine whether the GPT-4 aspect matters. There are basically 3 options: +He mad",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:17:55.323000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If people are holding expecting market fluctuations, that's one thing, but if you are saying this market is priced 15-20",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:48:43.341000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It’s way too late for that unfortunately. This is now the second most traded market in Manifold history so if you wanna ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T19:01:23.424000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think my human brain did imagine at first that the person was climbing a small number of stories and looking down into,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:42:51.737000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'd agree but I didn't make 154 losses on that trade, nor did I have 155 profit before! I sold those shares at the price",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-28T00:17:59.561000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I misspoke; these were Yes shares that I sold.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T17:45:45.849000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Trying to give a breakdown on my understanding of this market because I might write a more extended blog post on this to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:06:46.485000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"actually, $150 limited time offer this week only",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T21:00:30.060000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"to me +bard.google.com + provides it's response of it's not available in your region yet!!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:44:22.012000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yep, selling my position as well. I have no doubt this will be resolved NO due to a technicality on the way you interact",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T00:46:32.993000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, all the errors from o3 that I've seen on tricksy questions like that are quite human-like. See also FAQ5. When in ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:28:52.123000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Kenshin is 99% confident + of a February release, so get those 5x EV gains betting February up on + .",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T22:49:50.689000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I am planning to train a transformer model to play chess, and traders here might be interested in guessing what its Elo ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T22:38:45.906000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,for remaining ambiguity: it doesn't strike me as super obvious that the average street walker could answer that either? ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2024-01-26T14:12:42.184000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,📢I have given a poll to manifold staff. Should know in 24 hours to resolve this.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T23:23:22.040000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Enjoy the shares! I've really enjoyed my 43 minutes in this market.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-30T23:44:27.314000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I sold at -M3297 profit - half my portfolio gone - after betting on an event that had already happened 😬,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:48:37.607000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think based on the description this should resolve no? But originally based on the title I bought yes, so this market ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:29:06.308000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think we have different mental models of the general populace. I don’t think most people would struggle to figure out ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T03:00:57.402000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Ok guys. A little bit of housekeeping. +I plan to report resolve it as a YES if it's on the frontpage of a major news o",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T18:15:26.427000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Short term market set up for this tighter time frame: +https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-o",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T21:04:06.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"There's a spectrum of answers of increasing correctness and it's a bit of a judgment call where the ""egregiously wrong"" ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T20:37:16.236000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Summarizing the issue with ""by"" vs ""at"", correct me if this summary is wrong: The original question title was ""Will Goog",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:53:49.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"not everyone's first language is English, so buy at your own risk. The direct translation in their native language of by",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:26:13.292000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'm sure I'm biased, though, as + points out, this was my understanding since before I bought No. +My opinion is at lea",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:25:06.845000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Trader bonuses are capped at 100 traders = 500 mana = $5. It used to be double, or $10.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-06T17:09:02.446000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","that would be great motivation, but unfortunately I have my own reasons to think they won't release it before the EoM, s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T23:35:22.850000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I'm leaving this market open for trading a bit longer but I'm considering the deadline for prompts to have passed. So at,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:29:37.916000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Are you saying it's mispriced 15-20% and that it should be 5-10)? It's a little confusing because 5-10% could mean it's ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:22:00.326000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't believe this market is still active. I exited weeks ago. Like, after the title change, still NONE of you know ho",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:51:30.953000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"It's the same for me, the leaderboard seems much more meaningful than leagues and it's unfortunate that it's been deemp",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T17:56:28.218000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,This feature has radically changed the way I use Manifold for the better from a user experience perspective. I can’t get,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T23:56:43.035000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,You must be new to manifold markets then. Most markets here don't get resolved in the spirit of the market but on the mi,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:03:03.957000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I also think some people are holding YES or NO in expectation of market fluctuations, rather than expectations of resolu",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T23:21:24.914000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T23:05:43.048000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T10:45:30.591000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,but I don't after all! i sold and it's back to +1 so idgi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T22:59:47.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Resolving YES now is not appropriate, because it does not fulfill the requirements of it being generally available. Hypo",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4582b2476c69ad398939fb01be809030676b0e89 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,244 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-18T06:17:04.487000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I do not care about traders' opportunity costs or prevailing interest rates. People worried about opportunity costs shou,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,E2hz6YIHpWeS6mQtBAssod0CqnE2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,YES,NO,False,True,71.7834,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:53:21.552000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Any concerns before I resolve this to YES?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T03:51:29.634000+00:00,j3DDsBlKwERpzRFeRIDRd5PSR6e2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"This is similar to the ASCII Art idea: +This doesn’t really have any bearing on the market, but I thought some of you mi",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:58.167000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think Predict is doing a great job running this market, just want to give them kudos for that. I'm going to watch WWDC",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:31:34.573000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Source: a drunk teenager kept asking me if he could give me a kiss today. I think an LLM would do better than this guy, ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T02:56:33.793000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Are we sure it passes the 1 hour test?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,xbBWYUmA3XO9bTLLXKAQkawlLIk1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",YES,YES,True,True,230.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T17:05:56.875000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4? +The question is not did AI beat all chess engines.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:54:33.077000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Ok yeah, this one is pretty bad, seems like ChatGPT just totally misinterpreted the problem to ask about when the juggle",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T19:22:34.111000+00:00,ADQS38rFiKRKzSQz1YV32VCtbsg1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Totally agree with elmo here - making super clear unambiguous markets seems really hard and you're definitely doing your,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-07T06:49:26.876000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",i sold a bit because i dont like dogs,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,75.2011,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T23:56:43.035000+00:00,h7lpE6G6rCaPwjrGtOgBuoxJanD3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,You must be new to manifold markets then. Most markets here don't get resolved in the spirit of the market but on the mi,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:03:03.957000+00:00,sRuu6l4QrAdt0AKC8doIE281Rjo2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I also think some people are holding YES or NO in expectation of market fluctuations, rather than expectations of resolu",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,245.4715,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T18:46:26.575000+00:00,A2d3FKnqE9QW2TBUrhJ2jz6Xx2B2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I wonder if chatbots will ever be allowed to take screenshots when they determine they need to perform visual analysis o,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T17:54:45.183000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Candidates: +Duct tape ham sandwich: +Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no condiments. She takes her walking st",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T21:00:30.060000+00:00,o0WhYqFb9YMhMYqZAJP8ukJf8Bg1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"to me +bard.google.com + provides it's response of it's not available in your region yet!!",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-03-05T01:16:50.733000+00:00,9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I’ve updated to include Google Podcasts as well. I sort of just wanted the higher barrier for someone to have to go thro,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T02:14:56.234000+00:00,RstQdqKVADgvP1AaFhuLjkIUbwe2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The pattern that has consistently emerged in online discourse, as well as many comments here, is that LLMs are very clos",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T21:46:10.854000+00:00,9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,This morning Isaac decided to spam post on all my markets lying about me. I pondered for a bit why someone would do that,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:25:36.608000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I think it should. It has its own website, yes, but it's still the same core product. The markets that drive it all are ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-16T01:49:14.808000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Will he publish anything significant or interesting? 2e-4. +Will he win a single stockfish fight? 0.3",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:33:45.429000+00:00,cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"If you're literally just reading out market prices I'm not sure that qualifies as ""original content"".",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-19T19:00:52.547000+00:00,W5UwVm0ZZMersP5g1NarJhBvP1R2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I'd buy some YES in this market if Leagues were changed to solely focus on predictive profit,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T15:10:16.128000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't want to make an account and stuff, but on my behalf can somebody ask o3 a series of questions based on sub-lexic",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T22:26:39.392000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If true, this could explain why it seems to have a more consistent personality, and a more, shall we say, ""interesting"" ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T20:41:34.434000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"From the Verge: +""Within hours, Twitter Spaces was at least partially removed from the platform, with users saying they ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,NO,YES,False,True,97026.1358,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-13T11:09:27.886000+00:00,EWQ8opj5cZg46jsjlXCJsAk2Xpj2,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",it has to be people that are not directly/indirectly involved with development of GPT-4,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:41:13.773000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Right, this is another meta-trick-question. There's a well-known trick question where the boy and his father are brought",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:53:49.112000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"not everyone's first language is English, so buy at your own risk. The direct translation in their native language of by",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:56:02.615000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"the person I can most easily imagine paying this is +. I'm not gonna spend time seeking funding though because that con",NO,YES,False,True,1748.9004,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T02:21:08.431000+00:00,cPQMzdgrnFZIhyYJ1SYB7OyUmsR2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Everyone don't forget that a requirement for this market to resolve NO is that o3 also doesn't hallucinate worse than a ,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:32:32.989000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,yeah wasn't very excellent of me that i didn't integrate all the comments where i tightened the resolution criteria into,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-19T16:23:44.472000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,if Google assistant becomes available to talk to via the Google search form (with ability to have a multi-turn back-and-,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:48:37.607000+00:00,MW0uWaNxExgXEu9PWSywg03enJu1,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I think based on the description this should resolve no? But originally based on the title I bought yes, so this market ",YES,NO,False,True,180.3959,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T22:09:17.251000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Oh snap my league looks like a fun group!! + and + both there to shadow me and snatch away the marginal mana caused by",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:38:58.860000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I don't think ascii art should count as pure text, even though technically it is. Also I did say ""single prompt""..",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T10:45:30.591000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,but I don't after all! i sold and it's back to +1 so idgi,YES,NO,False,True,86.1686,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-11T01:46:35.771000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Wow. This market seems too high,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:39:05.141000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"is it more complicated than the surgeon either being the dad or mistaken, or am I falling for the trick?",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T21:10:34.224000+00:00,W5UwVm0ZZMersP5g1NarJhBvP1R2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"With that rant out of the way, there are plenty of other reasons to visit Manifold besides leagues and leaderboards. I l",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:20:55.330000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, I'm wondering if ""person on the street"" is just a bad benchmark to use, either for being too low a bar or for bein",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:44:22.012000+00:00,h7lpE6G6rCaPwjrGtOgBuoxJanD3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yep, selling my position as well. I have no doubt this will be resolved NO due to a technicality on the way you interact",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-03-18T16:03:28.198000+00:00,petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What probability would you bet NO at?,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:25:06.845000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Trader bonuses are capped at 100 traders = 500 mana = $5. It used to be double, or $10.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8673.9088,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:29:57.975000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Right, the idea is to not give the humans an unfair advantage. That would be awesome if you can help determine the best ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,wmg0bplaC8OyBFHAGHB7Na37KAC3,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",NO,NO,True,True,60.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T10:51:22.870000+00:00,gsYftKNi4VSE0XKF6hGP4ZBH2OI2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:08:22.423000+00:00,rJiEE9TUSdM0C8IKEXehxbUpegp1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The fundamental reason all AI predictions fail is that gpt is Indians so it needs to remain obscure to ensure nobody not,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:40:51.415000+00:00,wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"that makes sense! I notice there's an OOM+ difference between 150k mana and $100; is that intentional? +I'd be happy to",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T00:46:32.993000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, all the errors from o3 that I've seen on tricksy questions like that are quite human-like. See also FAQ5. When in ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T14:04:50.071000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I won't solve to YES due to Spaces.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:43:49.243000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I have had access to the Google Search experiment for a month already and commented on it somewhere below and I am still,NO,NO,True,True,93634.1124,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-19T16:24:56.251000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"To clarify, chatbot has to be usable via keyboard from a PC",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T23:21:24.914000+00:00,EWQ8opj5cZg46jsjlXCJsAk2Xpj2,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T22:59:47.982000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Resolving YES now is not appropriate, because it does not fulfill the requirements of it being generally available. Hypo",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:03:27.822000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would resolve this market as +NO +. As of May 12, 2023, there is no public announcement from Google that they plan to",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:01:09.795000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,For the record I bought my large NO holdings after I wrote and posted my above argument to show that I believe in what I,NO,NO,True,True,138.437,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:17:55.323000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If people are holding expecting market fluctuations, that's one thing, but if you are saying this market is priced 15-20",NO,NO,True,True,9449.3898,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T13:16:04.275000+00:00,W3hinPNFQehc8yHNjpjD5vD9UBJ3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't see how a waitlist counts. ""Not something you have to get whitelisted for""",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,k4WQLugFAYdEhDOtKIBR93VsJrI2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:26:59.622000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,btw you can just say 'resolves based on the spirit of the market' instead of having a list of fixed criteria. you lose t,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:26:13.292000+00:00,9il5Z8Wrd5Y3LZvsLbQqC8Tdy1O2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'm sure I'm biased, though, as + points out, this was my understanding since before I bought No. +My opinion is at lea",NO,NO,True,True,110.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T16:45:33.322000+00:00,sQfXy4VuYyTWTz7ZRa037occauI2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This needs more specifics. Google already embeds BERT into the back end of search.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T14:04:33.190000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The edit wasn't the problem. The problem in this case (and also in most other cases) was that the author wrote in variou,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:05:42.835000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"sorry for delay. I think I’d guarantee another episode for $300, if you really want to finance it! +note that price may ",NO,YES,False,True,2238.6829,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:13:34.641000+00:00,b00Q8huexGdwG6a77kS8P8ADlfk2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"profile picture +You are a participant in a betting market or prediction markets platform called manifold, and you have ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-28T19:56:33.692000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,I think that would end up being pretty similar to this one,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:07:38.996000+00:00,6NjgcSqIYqdg4mID9976SHPNLAl2,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"That is not necessary for the resolution, however.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T18:47:36.976000+00:00,MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I sold my position. It seems that if the current headlines on a 15 hour outage are not considered enough, it’s less than",YES,NO,False,True,56.8951,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2024-01-26T14:12:42.184000+00:00,OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,📢I have given a poll to manifold staff. Should know in 24 hours to resolve this.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T08:19:08.763000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, seeing ""skyscraper roofs below"" (I had missed that) means this detour is somewhere between 15 minutes and an hour ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T01:54:45.427000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My main point was what I said at the start: The edit was not the problem. This wasn't just in reply to you, this was in ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:57:08.173000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I got o3 to answer in what seems an almost superhuman way by adding ""Don't just go by vibes. Give like probabilities or ",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T08:24:04.717000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"For anyone confused why people are mad, +this is what the page looked like on March 26 +. +The title was changed from ",NO,YES,False,True,3190.3473,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T07:35:24.391000+00:00,9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Correct on all fronts! I’ve subscribed on my podcast app; thanks for sharing!,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-06T17:09:02.446000+00:00,CJk2CZIMzKOoaaS5Me4ym4Dd6272,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","that would be great motivation, but unfortunately I have my own reasons to think they won't release it before the EoM, s",NO,NO,True,True,100.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:47:24.720000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","do you wanna comment on model being moe v dense, or even multiple modalities?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T14:52:00.312000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"i see that one was addressed below, so what about this one: they state that Siri will have an option to interface with G",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,n0DYRRWaoFQkSrsjeHZveSedys42,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",NO,NO,True,True,1446.5204,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:22:00.326000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I can't believe this market is still active. I exited weeks ago. Like, after the title change, still NONE of you know ho",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,136.1686,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T19:09:54.523000+00:00,cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,ah yes that would be the one he placed a bet in lol,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T04:23:37.884000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"Best estimate of the Elon +time dilation factor is 3.8 +, so 1–2 months translates to 3.8–7.6 months, or Aug 15th–Dec 8",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,136.1686,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:43:18.418000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Yes, I value mana well below the purchase price. +Also, $100 might actually be too low. I’ll think more and try to get ",NO,YES,False,True,1838.6829,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T21:25:29.186000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Yeah, that's how it works at the moment.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:42:51.737000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I'd agree but I didn't make 154 losses on that trade, nor did I have 155 profit before! I sold those shares at the price",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,86.1686,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:29:37.916000+00:00,cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Are you saying it's mispriced 15-20% and that it should be 5-10)? It's a little confusing because 5-10% could mean it's ,NO,YES,False,True,9449.3898,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:04:31.503000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Idk. My monthly profit right now is soaring but my league profits seem to have plateaued. Trump getting indicted had alm,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-03-27T13:43:54.207000+00:00,VTH7czHKuDRDBwjC2XFWPsqg6dj2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Searle brought us the Chinese Room and now OpenAI the Indian Room,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-31T05:55:00.215000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",lol there’s no way this chess engine will be any good,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T22:37:59.483000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Update from Kenshin: +The engine is currently 11k lines of python code + the python-chess library for board state analys",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-07T13:01:32.765000+00:00,hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"no, I already had whiplash on this market and with all the controversy wouldn't count on the most solid and specific of ",YES,NO,False,True,136.1686,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:29:06.308000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think we have different mental models of the general populace. I don’t think most people would struggle to figure out ,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:53:12.069000+00:00,2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"That was only for the sub question +If the partnership is made regarding some new product that is not called Siri + then",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-12T13:17:48.323000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"While I agree that leagues in their current form are great for many users, for people who care more about long term mark",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,XE84xIex6Eeaq3SkN9CASIKliBG2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",YES,YES,True,True,860.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T04:46:22.512000+00:00,SCF3oCVykPhjK8K78zCW02e5RK12,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't think this is that contrived, it's basically just a larger scale counting task. This one for example is more str",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-03-31T15:37:19.726000+00:00,O3oypXm3aLbDWhfv1JHupaQoYNg1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Here's my favorite quote by ai. +Every improvement in living standards was when libs died. Rome collapsed and killed peo",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-29T23:23:22.040000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Enjoy the shares! I've really enjoyed my 43 minutes in this market.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:18:07.183000+00:00,73Xc1YMjhiTQliBS8koH4C2wRns1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"""Has to be accessible from google.com homepage."" From the description.",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:07:02.178000+00:00,gsYftKNi4VSE0XKF6hGP4ZBH2OI2,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Note that announcement is not enough, there has to be at least early access for some outsiders before March 31st.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:52:08.281000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Ok maybe I’m just brainfoggy rn but I can’t spot the error,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-13T23:43:50.214000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,You mean literally 10 people on the street? Yes. Any consensus on the best question to use?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:31:21.135000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"within the year? something that would feel extortionary, probably above 150k mana / $100. I’d have to think about it tho",NO,YES,False,True,1838.6829,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-22T18:09:15.881000+00:00,hAwbDxBNzFXPzQL9pohcOZGZ5vB3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,A year to basically completely revamp a product in charge of >$160B/year revenue is ridiculously fast,NO,NO,True,True,49.0461,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:37:41.713000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",you gotta prime it in previous context to give specific numbers and if it doesn't then enforce that context harder,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:26:43.573000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I strongly believe that GPT4 does not provide a material advantage over stockfish. But I don't want to bet on whether ke,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-25T21:47:40.294000+00:00,93qSnoHrkeYFQaWCJ07uBvng1hS2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I started using bing in 2021. And I don’t really care for the chatbot.,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-01T06:06:46.485000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"actually, $150 limited time offer this week only",NO,YES,False,True,1999.6951,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",NO,YES,False,True,1748.9004,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T22:08:51.006000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Well, I'm still not sure. I don't want this to come down to a trick question technicality.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:22:33.454000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,See my comment below where he makes other statements that more strongly lean NO though,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:51:30.953000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"It's the same for me, the leaderboard seems much more meaningful than leagues and it's unfortunate that it's been deemp",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:20:11.442000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","After this result was posted, I have been informed in the weeks thereafter by several people, via DM, that there are at ",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:19:30.851000+00:00,b00Q8huexGdwG6a77kS8P8ADlfk2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,the banned troll is always and forevermore victorious once again,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:10:32.675000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Idk, that's an inference, but that doesn't matter because the market creator's statements are pretty direct. Apple needs",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",NO,YES,False,True,725.8427,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-13T06:30:29.201000+00:00,CoZzAL3tQsUlTtGIjLUu94SXTQ53,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think it will be that hard to determine whether the GPT-4 aspect matters. There are basically 3 options: +He mad",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:20:48.467000+00:00,4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,imo its not great to make fake podcasts that exist just to resolve markets like this,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-18T05:39:32.098000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I've stated that I won't push it past March 31, even if he says it's coming out the very next day. +https://manifold.mar",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-14T07:54:29.126000+00:00,LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol, a little too late now that I’ve sold my stakes 😂",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-03T19:01:23.424000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think my human brain did imagine at first that the person was climbing a small number of stories and looking down into,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:28:02.581000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Ooh, this may count as failure on the sandwich duct tape one: +https://chatgpt.com/share/683b2cfd-3314-800d-a7b0-81d989",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:47:05.688000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"(i am sticking with the ""at end of june"" mostly because i hope that'll give time for the bot to more closely either meet",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T22:38:45.906000+00:00,Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,for remaining ambiguity: it doesn't strike me as super obvious that the average street walker could answer that either? ,NO,YES,False,True,94.9937,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-25T20:20:31.569000+00:00,tAy36bJEr9h564IdXKzLngcOgVJ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Brilliant idea: a LLM that tries to convince you that it won the chess game, even when it didn't.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:38:46.459000+00:00,igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"lots of complicated thoughts here +happy to guarantee a payment to MMP $150 from Manifold, less to pay for a marginal po",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T21:15:12.072000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,there’s nothing convoluted about asking if 20 feathers are lighter than 20 lbs of bricks.,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T17:05:51.254000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,... Seems to work fine in Spanish using ChatGPT and Google Translate as a metric. That's up to 40 million people in the ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:47:19.260000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,~60% is where I am selling out because I feel Google has about 60% of a chatbot included in search. Maybe it could be as,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:47.548000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I think if it uses GPT-4 for more complicated or challenging queries, that should count.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T07:56:41.207000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, o3 has no trouble with that one (it says ""one""). Same for Gemini (""two words""). Claude has more fun with it: ""Exac",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:43:51.052000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"About the timeline sure, but it seems the steel plate exists and others are estimating timelines that would still put it",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:38:01.831000+00:00,xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I did not understand that using tools + engines would be allowed since this makes the whole thing WAY less impressive. H,NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T16:26:05.156000+00:00,JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Having listened to the first five episodes can you tell us if you think the market is well priced currently?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:48:43.341000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It’s way too late for that unfortunately. This is now the second most traded market in Manifold history so if you wanna ,NO,NO,True,True,35599.288,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:55:33.646000+00:00,vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"much appreciated! I sold my YES at -3297 a few days ago. +Imo this should resolve NA regardless. Most traders here bet ",YES,NO,False,True,3693.516,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-16T06:04:35.845000+00:00,xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",will check it out - thank you for sharing,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T16:33:05.087000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Some related markets of Twitter as a business. +I think that 47% probability in 45 days is an incredibly high probabili",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-01T12:38:13.245000+00:00,OVEYlvXPDVefqYKo3dsfuUARUnt2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Does the chatbot have to be accessible from the Google homepage to resolve Yes? What if Google releases a separate/beta ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-15T00:35:11.543000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I ain't betting, but shutting down microservices to discover which ones are needled seems like a recipe for this market ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T21:36:48.476000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"if they remove the promotion, i'd probably resolve No.",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:41:10.063000+00:00,vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought in at 97% or so, thinking I was betting on an event which had just occured. This market wiped out my all time p",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,3693.516,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-30T23:44:27.314000+00:00,vhOb9Oblv0UdSWE0t95c7C18nxt2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I sold at -M3297 profit - half my portfolio gone - after betting on an event that had already happened 😬,YES,YES,True,True,3297.6659,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T21:04:06.400000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"There's a spectrum of answers of increasing correctness and it's a bit of a judgment call where the ""egregiously wrong"" ",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T17:50:18.834000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I'm trying the sandwich duct tape question again in a temporary chat. If I nudge it, it ends up demonstrating understand",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-02-17T22:58:56.983000+00:00,Lyt28yBamOUhbQDkzqMhNyhaeMp2,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I know nothing here on a technical level, except that there was high confidence this would happen last year and it didn’",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T17:45:45.849000+00:00,bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Trying to give a breakdown on my understanding of this market because I might write a more extended blog post on this to,YES,YES,True,True,46.529,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Kh8RxHF4w5Ove09idxV3XGMve3A2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-22T08:22:14.987000+00:00,gsYftKNi4VSE0XKF6hGP4ZBH2OI2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Or never release a GPT-4 at all.,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:25:00.990000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Ooh, um, I think I need to see an example?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-17T01:26:14.075000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","in my opinion that lowers the chance of him winning. +Not using engines at all is like using an abstract thinking of a g",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-25T02:14:25.123000+00:00,93qSnoHrkeYFQaWCJ07uBvng1hS2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I’m a bing user. I use bing Every day.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T20:37:16.236000+00:00,YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Summarizing the issue with ""by"" vs ""at"", correct me if this summary is wrong: The original question title was ""Will Goog",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T22:49:50.689000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I am planning to train a transformer model to play chess, and traders here might be interested in guessing what its Elo ",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T19:35:38.174000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,Can you link to one of these posts? A major outage is different from any outage.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T15:43:01.881000+00:00,FF2QLNRwNedtLpIflMUVlkPoght1,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,ohhh good point! I had forgotten I could specifically choose a model there. I had only ever done the hidden model rating,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T03:00:57.402000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Ok guys. A little bit of housekeeping. +I plan to report resolve it as a YES if it's on the frontpage of a major news o",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:48:01.885000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,too bad i didn't predict in advance it would attract so much volume,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,NO,NO,True,True,2914.8006,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T18:15:26.427000+00:00,jU6q1ZdnPgWlZTa1E1W2CQFPdME3,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Short term market set up for this tighter time frame: +https://manifold.markets/JohnRoxton/will-twitter-suffer-a-major-o",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-01T16:04:16.610000+00:00,zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"has to be accessible from +google.com + homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google s",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-25T15:59:01.764000+00:00,W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I kinda expect that the booster recovery plan starts with demonstrating a tightly controlled descent into the ocean at l,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:48:11.667000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I disagree, I don’t think it’s egregious. Citation: I was really confused when reading the question, and did not find th",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,hmxgx4QRAPfMrDKtxPOmuJUV0h62,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",NO,YES,False,True,26.1008,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T21:13:07.265000+00:00,duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"but if your using the platform now doesn't matter much to where you stand in six months, it can have the opposite effect",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T18:21:53.494000+00:00,7yDNUPDeSsR9TFqJMOJmoiscQdP2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I think this blog has an excellent in depth analysis of chess using instructGPT +https://blog.mathieuacher.com/GPTsChes",NO,NO,True,False,,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-28T00:17:59.561000+00:00,pb40IsBg9Xd9kqCmF4J70YdpSkz2,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,I misspoke; these were Yes shares that I sold.,YES,YES,True,True,93.0249,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T23:35:22.850000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I'm leaving this market open for trading a bit longer but I'm considering the deadline for prompts to have passed. So at,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:24:32.532000+00:00,6QlP88QnoqcYeePMrbTojs42JOM2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Are you sure it got the right answer? The correct answer is the surgeon is the father, there's no problem",YES,NO,False,False,,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:09:06.266000+00:00,HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Does o3 know that the tweet length limit was removed? What if Jim was reading +https://x.com/slatestarcodex/status/1886",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:41:43.480000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Maybe we should clarify that it has to work with a person off the street +out loud +. So blunders in a board game are p",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:51:12.423000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"[Deleted, posted on wrong market, sorry]",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:49:25.243000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I'm tentatively convinced that we should resolve YES based on this. I.e., I was wrong. I wanted to bet on NO but restrai",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T19:28:45.665000+00:00,5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I was pretty sure the answer turned out to be yes, there are single prompts for which o3 consistently falls on its face.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-30T18:28:52.123000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Kenshin is 99% confident + of a February release, so get those 5x EV gains betting February up on + .",NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T17:56:28.218000+00:00,4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,This feature has radically changed the way I use Manifold for the better from a user experience perspective. I can’t get,NO,YES,False,False,,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:53:38.523000+00:00,q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The market creator is active, you'll have to wait a bit :)",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-15T05:18:20.743000+00:00,ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","It's really not. People's complaints so far actually seem to be that I should do more interpretation, such as reviewing ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T19:26:12.817000+00:00,9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,All 3 of these are hilarious. A+. You have my confidence in YES.,YES,YES,True,True,5.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T23:05:43.048000+00:00,itOhJsUZkMfm7E3Qj6mvXZaHFL03,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's ""closer"" to GPT-3 and its deri",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:19:35.317000+00:00,wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If you can find another two people willing to chip in I'm happy to split the cost (I assume you know who listens to it b,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:41:14.623000+00:00,sRuu6l4QrAdt0AKC8doIE281Rjo2,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Who is ""firm on how they intend to resolve""? Rai's most recent comment says, ""yes i'd be super happy to just transfer t",YES,NO,False,True,484.5867,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-13T10:57:33.817000+00:00,EWQ8opj5cZg46jsjlXCJsAk2Xpj2,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I will resolve once it is clear that GPT-4 has or has not been released before March 31st. This can be before March 31st,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:52:17.226000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",interesting. Did you have this talk sometime in the last 2-3ish months?,YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:31:08.062000+00:00,C22C9JRbycX3PfZ3O4EdsiZmzM83,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"interesting, it failed consistently for me when set to o3.",YES,YES,True,False,,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1_did_pre.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1_did_pre.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8ca34a1030b098eec2b48ce1c7fc1d896ecea2a6 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task1_did_pre.csv @@ -0,0 +1,80 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,eventual_position_side,raw_response,model +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:04:49.123000+00:00,jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",What if they do the typical marketing/IT thing and not call it GPT-4? Could be GPT-3.1 or GPT-2023 or GPT-XTRA. They mig,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:25:36.608000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I think it should. It has its own website, yes, but it's still the same core product. The markets that drive it all are ",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-12T13:17:48.323000+00:00,zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"While I agree that leagues in their current form are great for many users, for people who care more about long term mark",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T21:13:07.265000+00:00,duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"but if your using the platform now doesn't matter much to where you stand in six months, it can have the opposite effect",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:18:08.153000+00:00,duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I think leagues has reduced my interest in using Manifold so far, because it doesn't feel as interesting to do well at a",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T19:28:38.605000+00:00,duXzNRJ1zwXK76BWHEG3zpSnGTs1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I strongly agree—as soon as 'winning at manifold' feels divorced from 'winning at forecasting' I less care to play. Like,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:49:12.766000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Despite being part of some self-resolving markets and having some open myself, they are dumb and against the spirit of t",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T20:25:44.839000+00:00,H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"wow, how I wasn't aware? What do you mean by what behaviors and markets are acceptable?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:31:12.821000+00:00,hM2Lqm6fOHb1SQN1epcl0gGSuAj1,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Bleah. I did not enjoy leagues on Duolingo, where things seemed to be moving toward giving people more ""helpful encourag",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-08T03:11:03.299000+00:00,KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Apple and Google Podcasts are the only platforms to resolve yes?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T02:19:35.317000+00:00,wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,If you can find another two people willing to chip in I'm happy to split the cost (I assume you know who listens to it b,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:40:51.415000+00:00,wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"that makes sense! I notice there's an OOM+ difference between 150k mana and $100; is that intentional? +I'd be happy to",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-10-12T22:21:11.386000+00:00,wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,what'd be your happy price to do it?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-27T19:00:49.725000+00:00,lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"What makes something a chatbot? You used to be able to do, on Google: +[who is barack obama] +Barack Hussein Obama II (",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-09T22:27:35.338000+00:00,bzP56bnuyoO92AHI6fSmv5Egrbj1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It would be hard for a chatbot to make bing dumber,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-01T17:37:23.282000+00:00,kY5nqFqyXKWctEgAsm3KsQCeygv1,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,If there’s a small link on the bottom that calls it out (like they do sometimes for sales on Pixel phones) for a few day,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-06T19:26:24.449000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I don't see a meaningful difference between a chatbot ""using"" vs. ""being"" a specific language model.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:47.548000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I think if it uses GPT-4 for more complicated or challenging queries, that should count.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T16:51:11.548000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Oh I'm sure it is hallucination. There's no reason its training data or prompt would include such information about itse,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T06:53:18.946000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Bing seems confused about whether it is or isn't GPT-4.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T04:45:14.407000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Someone else already mentioned it below and I provided a clarification, so I don't think this one qualifies.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T04:39:48.921000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Yes, at the time of market creation. I'll edit the description.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T02:07:35.030000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Mira is the ghost of Manifold. Dead but not gone...,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-28T19:56:33.692000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,I think that would end up being pretty similar to this one,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T21:37:26.533000+00:00,CJk2CZIMzKOoaaS5Me4ym4Dd6272,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,OpenAI models are not publicly released (meaning it's impossible to have an independent verification of the claim) and t,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:49:19.391000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It's real, see the other comments below.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T16:43:16.029000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It's pretty subjective, yeah. I'll do the best I can. :)",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T16:40:34.402000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Memory address is irrelevant, the other 4 metrics all seem reasonable to take into account.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-19T05:28:36.478000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"For those confused, I believe + is referring to +this + comment.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-17T14:15:19.006000+00:00,Kh8RxHF4w5Ove09idxV3XGMve3A2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,It would be more interesting to ask if the model used for Bing either has >50% more parameters (the jump from GPT-2 to G,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-16T22:26:39.392000+00:00,y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"If true, this could explain why it seems to have a more consistent personality, and a more, shall we say, ""interesting"" ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T22:45:32.259000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","that is the most realistic way to beat stockfish - make a better stockfish. ""Stockfish"" here is not used literally, but ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T17:08:05.862000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",his own posts are really full of water and ambigious. That is why there are different understandings.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T17:05:56.875000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4? +The question is not did AI beat all chess engines.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-04T16:23:18.867000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","sorry david, i was answering to project victory. Tagging you was accidental",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-04T09:56:02.079000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","NOoo, you didn't get my message. +Stockfish evaluates millions of positions every move with some Evaluate() function. +T",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T07:19:39.328000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I think he releases Stockfish engine, where Evaluate_position() function is replaced by one given by LLM. That is how i ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-31T05:55:00.215000+00:00,sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",lol there’s no way this chess engine will be any good,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-01-03T15:56:37.775000+00:00,9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","GPT4's ""performant output"" will beat every other chess engine in existence in a tournament of any size +Is there some wo",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:26:43.573000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I strongly believe that GPT4 does not provide a material advantage over stockfish. But I don't want to bet on whether ke,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:19:39.524000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Tangential use of GPT-4 runs counter to the spirit of what is at stake here. This does not even require GPT to be instru,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T20:04:19.090000+00:00,Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",I hate the Leviesque resolution criteria.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T17:12:01.329000+00:00,AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",0 chance? Why haven't you bet yet?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:34:55.965000+00:00,3VoMQMG8ffRG3X4LIFBiNsPnYPX2,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","But you were basically just explaining the context of the game and having it make moves, right? AFAICT from 10s of readi",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:17:05.362000+00:00,vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,what do you see them prioritizing that moves your opinion?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T15:15:50.433000+00:00,vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"this is such a hard one. the rumors are yes. but so hard. my prior on the rumors is strong. but, it might make more busi",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T14:52:00.312000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"i see that one was addressed below, so what about this one: they state that Siri will have an option to interface with G",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T14:44:23.324000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,there are so many I don't really see the point. One example: What if they announce that Siri is being replaced by someth,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T13:57:28.983000+00:00,OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"why on Earth is this a prize points market 😆 +something like +(non-exhaustive list).",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-07-17T20:22:48.780000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,What's your take on this now? From where I'm sitting it looks like it's full steam ahead for a second launch sometime in,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T07:33:41.792000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I believe in 2020 he predicted a crewed 2024 mission, if that's what you're referring to. So he has until 2035 or so to ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T04:23:37.884000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"Best estimate of the Elon +time dilation factor is 3.8 +, so 1–2 months translates to 3.8–7.6 months, or Aug 15th–Dec 8",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:43:51.052000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"About the timeline sure, but it seems the steel plate exists and others are estimating timelines that would still put it",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T00:10:44.605000+00:00,EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Elon says ready in 1-2 months. Whilst this is likely wildly optimistic (what's the best estimate of the Elon time dilati,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:31:34.573000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Source: a drunk teenager kept asking me if he could give me a kiss today. I think an LLM would do better than this guy, ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T11:28:51.633000+00:00,vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"No, that's a bad resolution. +For instance, an obvious question is ""can you play a game of chess against me without mak",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T13:42:17.973000+00:00,HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sandwiches (with no sauces or condiments) in Room A, then immedia",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:47:29.709000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"A few ideas off the top of my head that I'd expect LLMs to fail where someone off the street would succeed: +What were ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T10:39:05.141000+00:00,a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"is it more complicated than the surgeon either being the dad or mistaken, or am I falling for the trick?",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T22:44:53.921000+00:00,VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I just had it fail to understand/explain a joke, does that count?",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:46:26.104000+00:00,85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Something like ""A boy and his mother are in a car crash; the mother is killed, and the boy is taken to hospital. There, ",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:29:37.739000+00:00,cDzkzLtyW3VCfKWYsKOF6iKsuV92,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,basically the whole arc-agi test is similar things. If this counts you can look at examples there. Not sure if it count,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:23:18.184000+00:00,85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Would a trick question that o3 falls for more often than an average human count?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..940ba773f8968f320e808ece81e4970bb57e5d36 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False,True,3811.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True,True,102.7615,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T09:49:26.326000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"So given all the examples that have been found, are you going to resolve YES today?",increase,increase,True,True,5550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:08:34.319000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I think leagues encourage all the right things. Earning profit from good bets and creating markets that get more unique ,increase,increase,True,True,4280.8959,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T17:26:43.617000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I made this market which is quite similar but I will guarantee that it resolves properly and it should not N/A. It will ,increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:21:59.385000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,My understanding was that search is getting simple AI answers and there will be a separate conversational Bart service a,increase,hold,False,True,1050.1417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T20:13:37.550000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I asked some-not-o3 model, for amusement. +[VERY TRICK Q] I have a wolf, a goat and a beaver to transfer using a single ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:27:49.379000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"that is for this comment. The comment about ""try this out"" is new information to me. I wish it had been added to the mar",increase,hold,False,True,196.4674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T11:31:39.035000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I’m betting big on Starship not launching this year again. Even more confident it doesn’t reach orbit at this point as w,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True,True,182.4851,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:54:50.133000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I think some people misread this line: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +ONLY AVAIL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,flip,False,True,1060.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False,True,1446.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False,True,10410.5653,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False,True,11368.9962,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True,True,217.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,increase,False,True,12180.4108,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,flip,False,True,97026.1358,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-21T14:08:49.452000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,The longest outage in recent memory was 45 minutes in July 2022[1]. That gives me a low prior probability for a 60 minut,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False,True,23.8806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False,True,247.966,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,increase,False,True,4500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,increase,False,True,318.3424,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:28:16.562000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,YES is no longer possible. Maybe it was but the link having to be there at the end of the month makes it either NO or N/,increase,flip,False,True,63430.8808,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,increase,False,True,12.5648,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T12:11:34.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,that one point could be bc they calculate with comma values that are rounded to the next integer when displayed. But I d,increase,hold,False,True,503.4944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.6213,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-14T16:04:31.888000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> Billions of games is not nearly enough for this to work. + ""this"" meaning to reach an apparent 1700-1800 Elo rating vi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9692,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T17:25:37.126000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"you confirm that this refers to Bing AI at market creation (February 16 2023), right? Bing AI keeps getting new releases",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,increase,flip,False,True,18.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,flip,False,True,4944.5279,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T05:54:53.403000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?),decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:08:04.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,They are so far away from a good product that they are talking about some storytelling tool that they supposedly cooked ,increase,flip,False,True,7412.1037,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True,True,26.1008,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-03T21:29:09.655000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Which translated from Muskian to english means 60 to 80 weeks.,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False,True,1748.9004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:40:41.685000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes, that's true, but it's too late to N/A now. If it was the right decision, it was a month ago when the issue occurred",increase,increase,True,True,9449.3898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:35:08.585000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Apparently Sydney has been running in several markets for a year, making it seem less likely it's based on GPT-4. +http",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:15:53.113000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the error has to be so egregious that it is completely unthinkable that a human would ever give it, then I think it's",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T01:14:33.959000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah. Even though I would have N/A’d the market in their position, they have outlined exactly what they meant and what t",increase,decrease,False,True,9738.9458,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-06T15:36:34.787000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","unholy union of GPT-4 and the ghost of Garry Kasparov +😂",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T05:58:27.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Ok that's fine, but you must realise it doesn't demonstrate that at all? +Here's the relevant info. +Question was change",increase,flip,False,True,9592.7638,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-04T10:09:35.565000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",ig that was w.r.t the api release?,increase,flip,False,True,117.9922,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-08T22:12:44.593000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",im assuming this resolves NO if his code utilizes stockfish and GPT-4 but just performs equally good to vanilla stockfis,increase,hold,False,True,898.6645,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T22:27:21.674000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Well obviously getting there faster helps if you immediately stop all AI capabilities research AFTER that. The fact that,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:05:18.453000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Oh, yeah I didn't even realize it clarified whole, I think that makes it unambiguously egregiously wrong then.",decrease,flip,False,True,122.4036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-30T23:39:29.620000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","he did not say that the engine is using Stockfish, but his ramblings leave open the possibility for doing just that. The",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False,True,540.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False,True,11.2553,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:51:49.203000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Actually just kidding, this should resolve YES. I missed this in the initial presentation but there's clearly a partners",increase,flip,False,True,1825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,increase,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False,True,3566.0183,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,increase,False,True,6063.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:54:14.147000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,let me know if you want me create a poll for those,decrease,hold,False,True,14.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-01T23:44:01.301000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I'm going to get so bodied if your sources are better,increase,flip,False,True,4502.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T02:02:18.146000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"AFAICT there are two different products here. One is Bard, which has nothing to do with Google Search (other than being ",increase,hold,False,True,6760.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True,True,8135.4449,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,flip,False,True,382.3107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False,True,245.4715,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False,True,3049.0721,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False,True,1570.9195,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True,True,179.8294,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True,True,5484.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False,True,1576.2505,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:10:00.799000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"> most people on the street can answer this. +me, Project Victory, Mactuary, and John-George Salter all got this wrong, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:09:43.232000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I meant in the yes/no sense, but even in the Bayesian update sense, P(claims to be GPT-4| it’s GPT-4) is not necessarily",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False,True,650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T23:40:48.630000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Almost certainly, I’m sure the announcement will come with testimonials from people who have been using it under NDA",increase,increase,True,True,2220.113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,flip,False,True,2914.8006,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-07T11:52:02.247000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,4 engine failures on Booster 7(?). Raptor 2 is not a reliable engine at this point in time and I doubt it’ll get better ,increase,decrease,False,True,2180.2026,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,flip,False,True,383.5221,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True,True,1701.2284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,increase,False,True,8150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False,True,182.4851,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,decrease,False,True,9442.235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-22T22:12:07.447000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Google also probably would want clear value-adds for things added to search products, and the current SOTA text generati",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True,True,725.8427,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T14:57:58.410000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"This question has always said from the beginning ""Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment"" and that ",increase,hold,False,True,10449.618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:22:32.436000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"thanks. I believe you can: +Ask 10 random people on the street +Ask o3 10 times in different threads +Figure out which s",decrease,hold,False,True,9.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False,True,9198.5193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-31T03:43:53.736000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",And yet you have nothing in the market...,increase,hold,False,True,3910.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-04T14:51:28.697000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Cope, seethe, and lose 8.5 kilomarbles about it.",increase,flip,False,True,905.2463,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T19:21:09.438000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My video goes through it extensively, but in short: +Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:11:20.491000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Yea I mean I don't believe much of what Musk says anymore. lol. FSD is coming next year guys I promise!,increase,hold,False,True,805.8107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True,True,8635.7122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:57:42.569000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The thing that brings me to Manifold more than anything else is the obligation I feel to the people who bet on my market,decrease,hold,False,True,81480.8808,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",increase,increase,True,True,860.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:16:18.513000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I fell for the trick question but o3 saw straight through it: ""Twenty pounds of bricks outweigh 20 individual feathers b",increase,increase,True,True,10000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T16:24:54.824000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Has anyone tried the ""Is it 2025?"" prompt that was so difficult for Google? Or related like ""is it June 1st?"". Lmarena d",decrease,hold,False,True,3550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True,True,540.5122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False,True,305.2704,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,increase,False,True,8679.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T13:12:08.527000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,variance on my personal view on this question over time and across categories of arguments has been almost entirely expl,decrease,hold,False,True,47.1378,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True,True,3515.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False,True,1682.2069,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",decrease,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T23:06:31.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"note that the bing demo already has multi-step interaction, and google has already demonstrated LaMDA. If google release",decrease,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-03T22:38:29.143000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Because of inference costs, my thinking is that it's more likely that with upcoming product releases people will have wi",increase,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:47:59.349000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"but a partnership, regarding siri, was not announced at wwdc",decrease,hold,False,True,3191.7211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True,True,399.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:54:39.590000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, customized for search. If you’ve used the new Bing in pr",increase,increase,True,True,1792.4585,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,increase,False,True,1707.7056,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True,True,484.5867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T23:34:57.007000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Wha is the timeframe to resolve this,decrease,hold,False,True,10109.2643,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T15:05:49.875000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I hear you, but I am not a fan of the crowd demanding a certain resolution especially on the first or second biggest mar",decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False,True,212.9132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:57:48.684000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Same here, but this market is not one of those.",increase,hold,False,True,2610.6355,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,flip,True,True,812.6806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True,True,1348.3678,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-18T19:55:59.924000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Probably the Google Magi leaks,increase,flip,False,True,562.4714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,increase,False,True,7265.9784,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T12:56:50.337000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,moreover egregious errors should be something unthinkable for humans. Reading through the comments in this market makes ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:47:09.538000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I believe that person on Twitter has misread Gwern's comment on LW. It doesn't say that Gwern talked to Mikhail, just th",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,increase,False,True,298.8922,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,increase,False,True,30678.6734,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-24T17:49:27.814000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Several people are saying something big is happening next week. 😓,increase,flip,False,True,8732.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,decrease,False,True,4305.5118,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True,True,578.934,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,hold,False,True,136.1686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-13T18:54:48.110000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,OAI already has access to GPT-4 and plan to publicly release it soon. It is a smaller model as well,increase,increase,True,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T18:32:55.710000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"fwiw, this market is at 14% and the main market is at 22%. Suggests to me that maybe people do just think the market is ",increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:03:41.381000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Not necessarily true. Water table is extremely high at Boca Chica so that can cause issues. The tension steel between th,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False,True,0.9687,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:19:58.597000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the sandwich question isn’t enough to nudge you to a “yes” resolution, then I would just try out all 10 publicly avai",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,increase,False,True,4305.5118,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,decrease,False,True,30.8841,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False,True,2755.5622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False,True,650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,hold,False,True,99509.5322,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:40.860000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,That being said 20% chance times 50% chance of Starship success is still 10% :),decrease,hold,False,True,7539.7047,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:36.789000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,There's so much liquidity to push through...,increase,hold,False,True,4974.0627,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:30:09.751000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Agreed. And the title would have to be changed. 'by the end of June 2023' and 'at the end of June 2023' don't mean the s,decrease,flip,False,True,84.2542,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,increase,False,True,510.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T22:14:41.957000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,NO holders have an incentive to answer incorrectly.,increase,flip,False,True,5.7367,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True,True,134.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False,True,136.1686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True,True,5550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False,True,188.2656,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:23:28.136000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Found the prompt. Not the chat log, though. +1. Stack of sandwiches: +> Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no c",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,increase,False,True,688.934,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,decrease,False,True,6504.5044,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T00:15:38.471000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,We already know that o3 doesn’t ace SimpleBench. Just take the items on SimpleBench that it fails,increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False,True,1701.2284,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True,True,4305.5118,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True,True,1766.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False,True,89.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True,True,124.8537,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True,True,7031.0166,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T17:53:54.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Just to add my data point, it took about 1.5 hours from signup to approval for me. So still pretty short (but possibly g",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T23:36:31.942000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"easily accessible from Google search home page. +could be a link",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True,True,46294.4953,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T11:10:41.433000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,If you want it to be. But that's not my motivation.,decrease,flip,False,True,5776.9202,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:00:18.810000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"They will, since they’re now under high pressure to actually become profitable, given the huge investment made by Micros",decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:43:34.824000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I feel like I get into/see an argument over resolution criteria every day. People just need to be more careful when maki,decrease,hold,False,True,84.2542,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-17T15:15:25.625000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> But you have to wonder why the odds are so high, right? + My simple theory: kenshin9000_'s AGI fantasy matches that of",increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T00:43:04.411000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, it's an ambiguous situation. I definitely think by 2028 this resolves NO (and I placed a bet as such in that marke",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T17:36:18.567000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,To bet NO on this ever happening!! I didn’t use limit orders to get out of my monster position but didn’t have to when y,increase,hold,False,True,48234.8286,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,increase,flip,False,True,71.7834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,increase,False,True,2457.0861,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-24T11:00:37.838000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If any yes bettors want to make their case, I'd be interested in understanding what people's expectations are, e.g. full",increase,increase,True,True,10899.6007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False,True,46294.4953,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:58:16.797000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Re: +before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majori",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False,True,2730.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T21:11:12.509000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I like them, but yeahhh they can get pretty hairy and distracting. If only there was more middleground between them and ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,hold,False,True,1246.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-04T05:11:13.107000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Are there any other new features of 2023 so far this would compete with?,increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-05T13:35:43.766000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..eb597caa0f494590c7c9b600a3aae1db55698b14 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,160 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,decrease,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:00:18.810000+00:00,"They will, since they’re now under high pressure to actually become profitable, given the huge investment made by Micros",decrease,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",decrease,decrease,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,decrease,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T17:25:37.126000+00:00,"you confirm that this refers to Bing AI at market creation (February 16 2023), right? Bing AI keeps getting new releases",decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:15:53.113000+00:00,"If the error has to be so egregious that it is completely unthinkable that a human would ever give it, then I think it's",decrease,decrease,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,decrease,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:43:34.824000+00:00,I feel like I get into/see an argument over resolution criteria every day. People just need to be more careful when maki,decrease,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,decrease,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:22:32.436000+00:00,"thanks. I believe you can: +Ask 10 random people on the street +Ask o3 10 times in different threads +Figure out which s",decrease,hold,False +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,decrease,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,It's the website that's failing,decrease,decrease,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T17:53:54.037000+00:00,"Just to add my data point, it took about 1.5 hours from signup to approval for me. So still pretty short (but possibly g",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T12:56:50.337000+00:00,moreover egregious errors should be something unthinkable for humans. Reading through the comments in this market makes ,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:54:14.147000+00:00,let me know if you want me create a poll for those,decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:23:28.136000+00:00,"Found the prompt. Not the chat log, though. +1. Stack of sandwiches: +> Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no c",decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T16:24:54.824000+00:00,"Has anyone tried the ""Is it 2025?"" prompt that was so difficult for Google? Or related like ""is it June 1st?"". Lmarena d",decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,hold,False +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T13:12:08.527000+00:00,variance on my personal view on this question over time and across categories of arguments has been almost entirely expl,decrease,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T05:54:53.403000+00:00,Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?),decrease,decrease,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:47:59.349000+00:00,"but a partnership, regarding siri, was not announced at wwdc",decrease,decrease,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T23:34:57.007000+00:00,Wha is the timeframe to resolve this,decrease,hold,False +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:09:43.232000+00:00,"I meant in the yes/no sense, but even in the Bayesian update sense, P(claims to be GPT-4| it’s GPT-4) is not necessarily",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T19:21:09.438000+00:00,"My video goes through it extensively, but in short: +Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input",decrease,decrease,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:35:08.585000+00:00,"Apparently Sydney has been running in several markets for a year, making it seem less likely it's based on GPT-4. +http",decrease,decrease,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,decrease,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T23:06:31.198000+00:00,"note that the bing demo already has multi-step interaction, and google has already demonstrated LaMDA. If google release",decrease,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:40.860000+00:00,That being said 20% chance times 50% chance of Starship success is still 10% :),decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,decrease,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,decrease,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,decrease,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:10:00.799000+00:00,"> most people on the street can answer this. +me, Project Victory, Mactuary, and John-George Salter all got this wrong, ",decrease,decrease,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T15:05:49.875000+00:00,"I hear you, but I am not a fan of the crowd demanding a certain resolution especially on the first or second biggest mar",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:05:18.453000+00:00,"Oh, yeah I didn't even realize it clarified whole, I think that makes it unambiguously egregiously wrong then.",decrease,decrease,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:54:50.133000+00:00,"I think some people misread this line: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +ONLY AVAIL",decrease,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T23:36:31.942000+00:00,"easily accessible from Google search home page. +could be a link",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T11:10:41.433000+00:00,If you want it to be. But that's not my motivation.,decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:58:16.797000+00:00,"Re: +before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majori",decrease,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,decrease,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T20:13:37.550000+00:00,"I asked some-not-o3 model, for amusement. +[VERY TRICK Q] I have a wolf, a goat and a beaver to transfer using a single ",decrease,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,decrease,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,decrease,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:57:42.569000+00:00,The thing that brings me to Manifold more than anything else is the obligation I feel to the people who bet on my market,decrease,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:30:09.751000+00:00,Agreed. And the title would have to be changed. 'by the end of June 2023' and 'at the end of June 2023' don't mean the s,decrease,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,decrease,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,decrease,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7940dcd55319b0474214afffc54e849f14e4a464 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,147 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,flip,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,hold,True +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,hold,False +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,hold,False +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,hold,False +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,flip,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,flip,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,flip,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,flip,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,hold,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,flip,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,hold,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,flip,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,flip,False +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,flip,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..940ba773f8968f320e808ece81e4970bb57e5d36 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False,True,3811.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True,True,102.7615,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T09:49:26.326000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"So given all the examples that have been found, are you going to resolve YES today?",increase,increase,True,True,5550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:08:34.319000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I think leagues encourage all the right things. Earning profit from good bets and creating markets that get more unique ,increase,increase,True,True,4280.8959,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T17:26:43.617000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I made this market which is quite similar but I will guarantee that it resolves properly and it should not N/A. It will ,increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:21:59.385000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,My understanding was that search is getting simple AI answers and there will be a separate conversational Bart service a,increase,hold,False,True,1050.1417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T20:13:37.550000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I asked some-not-o3 model, for amusement. +[VERY TRICK Q] I have a wolf, a goat and a beaver to transfer using a single ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:27:49.379000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"that is for this comment. The comment about ""try this out"" is new information to me. I wish it had been added to the mar",increase,hold,False,True,196.4674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T11:31:39.035000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I’m betting big on Starship not launching this year again. Even more confident it doesn’t reach orbit at this point as w,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True,True,182.4851,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:54:50.133000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I think some people misread this line: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +ONLY AVAIL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,flip,False,True,1060.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False,True,1446.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False,True,10410.5653,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False,True,11368.9962,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True,True,217.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,increase,False,True,12180.4108,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,flip,False,True,97026.1358,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-21T14:08:49.452000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,The longest outage in recent memory was 45 minutes in July 2022[1]. That gives me a low prior probability for a 60 minut,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False,True,23.8806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False,True,247.966,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,increase,False,True,4500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,increase,False,True,318.3424,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:28:16.562000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,YES is no longer possible. Maybe it was but the link having to be there at the end of the month makes it either NO or N/,increase,flip,False,True,63430.8808,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,increase,False,True,12.5648,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T12:11:34.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,that one point could be bc they calculate with comma values that are rounded to the next integer when displayed. But I d,increase,hold,False,True,503.4944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.6213,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-14T16:04:31.888000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> Billions of games is not nearly enough for this to work. + ""this"" meaning to reach an apparent 1700-1800 Elo rating vi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9692,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T17:25:37.126000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"you confirm that this refers to Bing AI at market creation (February 16 2023), right? Bing AI keeps getting new releases",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,increase,flip,False,True,18.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,flip,False,True,4944.5279,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T05:54:53.403000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?),decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:08:04.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,They are so far away from a good product that they are talking about some storytelling tool that they supposedly cooked ,increase,flip,False,True,7412.1037,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True,True,26.1008,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-03T21:29:09.655000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Which translated from Muskian to english means 60 to 80 weeks.,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False,True,1748.9004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:40:41.685000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes, that's true, but it's too late to N/A now. If it was the right decision, it was a month ago when the issue occurred",increase,increase,True,True,9449.3898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:35:08.585000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Apparently Sydney has been running in several markets for a year, making it seem less likely it's based on GPT-4. +http",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:15:53.113000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the error has to be so egregious that it is completely unthinkable that a human would ever give it, then I think it's",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T01:14:33.959000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah. Even though I would have N/A’d the market in their position, they have outlined exactly what they meant and what t",increase,decrease,False,True,9738.9458,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-06T15:36:34.787000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","unholy union of GPT-4 and the ghost of Garry Kasparov +😂",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T05:58:27.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Ok that's fine, but you must realise it doesn't demonstrate that at all? +Here's the relevant info. +Question was change",increase,flip,False,True,9592.7638,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-04T10:09:35.565000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",ig that was w.r.t the api release?,increase,flip,False,True,117.9922,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-08T22:12:44.593000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",im assuming this resolves NO if his code utilizes stockfish and GPT-4 but just performs equally good to vanilla stockfis,increase,hold,False,True,898.6645,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T22:27:21.674000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Well obviously getting there faster helps if you immediately stop all AI capabilities research AFTER that. The fact that,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:05:18.453000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Oh, yeah I didn't even realize it clarified whole, I think that makes it unambiguously egregiously wrong then.",decrease,flip,False,True,122.4036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-30T23:39:29.620000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","he did not say that the engine is using Stockfish, but his ramblings leave open the possibility for doing just that. The",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False,True,540.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False,True,11.2553,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:51:49.203000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Actually just kidding, this should resolve YES. I missed this in the initial presentation but there's clearly a partners",increase,flip,False,True,1825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,increase,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False,True,3566.0183,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,increase,False,True,6063.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:54:14.147000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,let me know if you want me create a poll for those,decrease,hold,False,True,14.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-01T23:44:01.301000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I'm going to get so bodied if your sources are better,increase,flip,False,True,4502.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T02:02:18.146000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"AFAICT there are two different products here. One is Bard, which has nothing to do with Google Search (other than being ",increase,hold,False,True,6760.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True,True,8135.4449,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,flip,False,True,382.3107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False,True,245.4715,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False,True,3049.0721,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False,True,1570.9195,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True,True,179.8294,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True,True,5484.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False,True,1576.2505,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:10:00.799000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"> most people on the street can answer this. +me, Project Victory, Mactuary, and John-George Salter all got this wrong, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:09:43.232000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I meant in the yes/no sense, but even in the Bayesian update sense, P(claims to be GPT-4| it’s GPT-4) is not necessarily",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False,True,650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T23:40:48.630000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Almost certainly, I’m sure the announcement will come with testimonials from people who have been using it under NDA",increase,increase,True,True,2220.113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,flip,False,True,2914.8006,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-07T11:52:02.247000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,4 engine failures on Booster 7(?). Raptor 2 is not a reliable engine at this point in time and I doubt it’ll get better ,increase,decrease,False,True,2180.2026,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,flip,False,True,383.5221,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True,True,1701.2284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,increase,False,True,8150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False,True,182.4851,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,decrease,False,True,9442.235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-22T22:12:07.447000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Google also probably would want clear value-adds for things added to search products, and the current SOTA text generati",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True,True,725.8427,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T14:57:58.410000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"This question has always said from the beginning ""Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment"" and that ",increase,hold,False,True,10449.618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:22:32.436000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"thanks. I believe you can: +Ask 10 random people on the street +Ask o3 10 times in different threads +Figure out which s",decrease,hold,False,True,9.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False,True,9198.5193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-31T03:43:53.736000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",And yet you have nothing in the market...,increase,hold,False,True,3910.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-04T14:51:28.697000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Cope, seethe, and lose 8.5 kilomarbles about it.",increase,flip,False,True,905.2463,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T19:21:09.438000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My video goes through it extensively, but in short: +Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:11:20.491000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Yea I mean I don't believe much of what Musk says anymore. lol. FSD is coming next year guys I promise!,increase,hold,False,True,805.8107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True,True,8635.7122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:57:42.569000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The thing that brings me to Manifold more than anything else is the obligation I feel to the people who bet on my market,decrease,hold,False,True,81480.8808,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",increase,increase,True,True,860.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:16:18.513000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I fell for the trick question but o3 saw straight through it: ""Twenty pounds of bricks outweigh 20 individual feathers b",increase,increase,True,True,10000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T16:24:54.824000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Has anyone tried the ""Is it 2025?"" prompt that was so difficult for Google? Or related like ""is it June 1st?"". Lmarena d",decrease,hold,False,True,3550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True,True,540.5122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False,True,305.2704,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,increase,False,True,8679.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T13:12:08.527000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,variance on my personal view on this question over time and across categories of arguments has been almost entirely expl,decrease,hold,False,True,47.1378,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True,True,3515.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False,True,1682.2069,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",decrease,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T23:06:31.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"note that the bing demo already has multi-step interaction, and google has already demonstrated LaMDA. If google release",decrease,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-03T22:38:29.143000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Because of inference costs, my thinking is that it's more likely that with upcoming product releases people will have wi",increase,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:47:59.349000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"but a partnership, regarding siri, was not announced at wwdc",decrease,hold,False,True,3191.7211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True,True,399.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:54:39.590000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, customized for search. If you’ve used the new Bing in pr",increase,increase,True,True,1792.4585,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,increase,False,True,1707.7056,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True,True,484.5867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T23:34:57.007000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Wha is the timeframe to resolve this,decrease,hold,False,True,10109.2643,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T15:05:49.875000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I hear you, but I am not a fan of the crowd demanding a certain resolution especially on the first or second biggest mar",decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False,True,212.9132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:57:48.684000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Same here, but this market is not one of those.",increase,hold,False,True,2610.6355,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,flip,True,True,812.6806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True,True,1348.3678,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-18T19:55:59.924000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Probably the Google Magi leaks,increase,flip,False,True,562.4714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,increase,False,True,7265.9784,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T12:56:50.337000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,moreover egregious errors should be something unthinkable for humans. Reading through the comments in this market makes ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:47:09.538000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I believe that person on Twitter has misread Gwern's comment on LW. It doesn't say that Gwern talked to Mikhail, just th",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,increase,False,True,298.8922,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,increase,False,True,30678.6734,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-24T17:49:27.814000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Several people are saying something big is happening next week. 😓,increase,flip,False,True,8732.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,decrease,False,True,4305.5118,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True,True,578.934,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,hold,False,True,136.1686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-13T18:54:48.110000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,OAI already has access to GPT-4 and plan to publicly release it soon. It is a smaller model as well,increase,increase,True,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T18:32:55.710000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"fwiw, this market is at 14% and the main market is at 22%. Suggests to me that maybe people do just think the market is ",increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:03:41.381000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Not necessarily true. Water table is extremely high at Boca Chica so that can cause issues. The tension steel between th,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False,True,0.9687,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:19:58.597000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the sandwich question isn’t enough to nudge you to a “yes” resolution, then I would just try out all 10 publicly avai",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,increase,False,True,4305.5118,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,decrease,False,True,30.8841,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False,True,2755.5622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False,True,650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,hold,False,True,99509.5322,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:40.860000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,That being said 20% chance times 50% chance of Starship success is still 10% :),decrease,hold,False,True,7539.7047,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:36.789000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,There's so much liquidity to push through...,increase,hold,False,True,4974.0627,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:30:09.751000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Agreed. And the title would have to be changed. 'by the end of June 2023' and 'at the end of June 2023' don't mean the s,decrease,flip,False,True,84.2542,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,increase,False,True,510.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T22:14:41.957000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,NO holders have an incentive to answer incorrectly.,increase,flip,False,True,5.7367,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True,True,134.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False,True,136.1686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True,True,5550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False,True,188.2656,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:23:28.136000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Found the prompt. Not the chat log, though. +1. Stack of sandwiches: +> Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no c",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,increase,False,True,688.934,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,decrease,False,True,6504.5044,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T00:15:38.471000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,We already know that o3 doesn’t ace SimpleBench. Just take the items on SimpleBench that it fails,increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False,True,1701.2284,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True,True,4305.5118,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True,True,1766.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False,True,89.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True,True,124.8537,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True,True,7031.0166,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T17:53:54.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Just to add my data point, it took about 1.5 hours from signup to approval for me. So still pretty short (but possibly g",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T23:36:31.942000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"easily accessible from Google search home page. +could be a link",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True,True,46294.4953,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T11:10:41.433000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,If you want it to be. But that's not my motivation.,decrease,flip,False,True,5776.9202,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:00:18.810000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"They will, since they’re now under high pressure to actually become profitable, given the huge investment made by Micros",decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:43:34.824000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I feel like I get into/see an argument over resolution criteria every day. People just need to be more careful when maki,decrease,hold,False,True,84.2542,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-17T15:15:25.625000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> But you have to wonder why the odds are so high, right? + My simple theory: kenshin9000_'s AGI fantasy matches that of",increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T00:43:04.411000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, it's an ambiguous situation. I definitely think by 2028 this resolves NO (and I placed a bet as such in that marke",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T17:36:18.567000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,To bet NO on this ever happening!! I didn’t use limit orders to get out of my monster position but didn’t have to when y,increase,hold,False,True,48234.8286,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,increase,flip,False,True,71.7834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,increase,False,True,2457.0861,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-24T11:00:37.838000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If any yes bettors want to make their case, I'd be interested in understanding what people's expectations are, e.g. full",increase,increase,True,True,10899.6007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False,True,46294.4953,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:58:16.797000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Re: +before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majori",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False,True,2730.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T21:11:12.509000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I like them, but yeahhh they can get pretty hairy and distracting. If only there was more middleground between them and ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,hold,False,True,1246.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-04T05:11:13.107000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Are there any other new features of 2023 so far this would compete with?,increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-05T13:35:43.766000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..940ba773f8968f320e808ece81e4970bb57e5d36 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False,True,3811.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True,True,102.7615,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T09:49:26.326000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"So given all the examples that have been found, are you going to resolve YES today?",increase,increase,True,True,5550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:08:34.319000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I think leagues encourage all the right things. Earning profit from good bets and creating markets that get more unique ,increase,increase,True,True,4280.8959,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T17:26:43.617000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I made this market which is quite similar but I will guarantee that it resolves properly and it should not N/A. It will ,increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:21:59.385000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,My understanding was that search is getting simple AI answers and there will be a separate conversational Bart service a,increase,hold,False,True,1050.1417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T20:13:37.550000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I asked some-not-o3 model, for amusement. +[VERY TRICK Q] I have a wolf, a goat and a beaver to transfer using a single ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:27:49.379000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"that is for this comment. The comment about ""try this out"" is new information to me. I wish it had been added to the mar",increase,hold,False,True,196.4674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T11:31:39.035000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I’m betting big on Starship not launching this year again. Even more confident it doesn’t reach orbit at this point as w,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True,True,182.4851,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:54:50.133000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I think some people misread this line: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +ONLY AVAIL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,flip,False,True,1060.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False,True,1446.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False,True,10410.5653,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False,True,11368.9962,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True,True,217.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,increase,False,True,12180.4108,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,flip,False,True,97026.1358,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-21T14:08:49.452000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,The longest outage in recent memory was 45 minutes in July 2022[1]. That gives me a low prior probability for a 60 minut,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False,True,23.8806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False,True,247.966,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,increase,False,True,4500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,increase,False,True,318.3424,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:28:16.562000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,YES is no longer possible. Maybe it was but the link having to be there at the end of the month makes it either NO or N/,increase,flip,False,True,63430.8808,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,increase,False,True,12.5648,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T12:11:34.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,that one point could be bc they calculate with comma values that are rounded to the next integer when displayed. But I d,increase,hold,False,True,503.4944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.6213,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-14T16:04:31.888000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> Billions of games is not nearly enough for this to work. + ""this"" meaning to reach an apparent 1700-1800 Elo rating vi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9692,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T17:25:37.126000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"you confirm that this refers to Bing AI at market creation (February 16 2023), right? Bing AI keeps getting new releases",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,increase,flip,False,True,18.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,flip,False,True,4944.5279,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T05:54:53.403000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?),decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:08:04.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,They are so far away from a good product that they are talking about some storytelling tool that they supposedly cooked ,increase,flip,False,True,7412.1037,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True,True,26.1008,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-03T21:29:09.655000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Which translated from Muskian to english means 60 to 80 weeks.,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False,True,1748.9004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:40:41.685000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes, that's true, but it's too late to N/A now. If it was the right decision, it was a month ago when the issue occurred",increase,increase,True,True,9449.3898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:35:08.585000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Apparently Sydney has been running in several markets for a year, making it seem less likely it's based on GPT-4. +http",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:15:53.113000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the error has to be so egregious that it is completely unthinkable that a human would ever give it, then I think it's",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T01:14:33.959000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah. Even though I would have N/A’d the market in their position, they have outlined exactly what they meant and what t",increase,decrease,False,True,9738.9458,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-06T15:36:34.787000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","unholy union of GPT-4 and the ghost of Garry Kasparov +😂",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T05:58:27.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Ok that's fine, but you must realise it doesn't demonstrate that at all? +Here's the relevant info. +Question was change",increase,flip,False,True,9592.7638,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-04T10:09:35.565000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",ig that was w.r.t the api release?,increase,flip,False,True,117.9922,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-08T22:12:44.593000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",im assuming this resolves NO if his code utilizes stockfish and GPT-4 but just performs equally good to vanilla stockfis,increase,hold,False,True,898.6645,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T22:27:21.674000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Well obviously getting there faster helps if you immediately stop all AI capabilities research AFTER that. The fact that,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:05:18.453000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Oh, yeah I didn't even realize it clarified whole, I think that makes it unambiguously egregiously wrong then.",decrease,flip,False,True,122.4036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-30T23:39:29.620000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","he did not say that the engine is using Stockfish, but his ramblings leave open the possibility for doing just that. The",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False,True,540.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False,True,11.2553,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:51:49.203000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Actually just kidding, this should resolve YES. I missed this in the initial presentation but there's clearly a partners",increase,flip,False,True,1825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,increase,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False,True,3566.0183,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,increase,False,True,6063.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:54:14.147000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,let me know if you want me create a poll for those,decrease,hold,False,True,14.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-01T23:44:01.301000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I'm going to get so bodied if your sources are better,increase,flip,False,True,4502.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T02:02:18.146000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"AFAICT there are two different products here. One is Bard, which has nothing to do with Google Search (other than being ",increase,hold,False,True,6760.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True,True,8135.4449,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,flip,False,True,382.3107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False,True,245.4715,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False,True,3049.0721,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False,True,1570.9195,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True,True,179.8294,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True,True,5484.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False,True,1576.2505,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:10:00.799000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"> most people on the street can answer this. +me, Project Victory, Mactuary, and John-George Salter all got this wrong, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:09:43.232000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I meant in the yes/no sense, but even in the Bayesian update sense, P(claims to be GPT-4| it’s GPT-4) is not necessarily",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False,True,650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T23:40:48.630000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Almost certainly, I’m sure the announcement will come with testimonials from people who have been using it under NDA",increase,increase,True,True,2220.113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,flip,False,True,2914.8006,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-07T11:52:02.247000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,4 engine failures on Booster 7(?). Raptor 2 is not a reliable engine at this point in time and I doubt it’ll get better ,increase,decrease,False,True,2180.2026,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,flip,False,True,383.5221,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True,True,1701.2284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,increase,False,True,8150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False,True,182.4851,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,decrease,False,True,9442.235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-22T22:12:07.447000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Google also probably would want clear value-adds for things added to search products, and the current SOTA text generati",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True,True,725.8427,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T14:57:58.410000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"This question has always said from the beginning ""Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment"" and that ",increase,hold,False,True,10449.618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:22:32.436000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"thanks. I believe you can: +Ask 10 random people on the street +Ask o3 10 times in different threads +Figure out which s",decrease,hold,False,True,9.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False,True,9198.5193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-31T03:43:53.736000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",And yet you have nothing in the market...,increase,hold,False,True,3910.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-04T14:51:28.697000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Cope, seethe, and lose 8.5 kilomarbles about it.",increase,flip,False,True,905.2463,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T19:21:09.438000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My video goes through it extensively, but in short: +Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:11:20.491000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Yea I mean I don't believe much of what Musk says anymore. lol. FSD is coming next year guys I promise!,increase,hold,False,True,805.8107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True,True,8635.7122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:57:42.569000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The thing that brings me to Manifold more than anything else is the obligation I feel to the people who bet on my market,decrease,hold,False,True,81480.8808,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",increase,increase,True,True,860.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:16:18.513000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I fell for the trick question but o3 saw straight through it: ""Twenty pounds of bricks outweigh 20 individual feathers b",increase,increase,True,True,10000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T16:24:54.824000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Has anyone tried the ""Is it 2025?"" prompt that was so difficult for Google? Or related like ""is it June 1st?"". Lmarena d",decrease,hold,False,True,3550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True,True,540.5122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False,True,305.2704,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,increase,False,True,8679.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T13:12:08.527000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,variance on my personal view on this question over time and across categories of arguments has been almost entirely expl,decrease,hold,False,True,47.1378,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True,True,3515.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False,True,1682.2069,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",decrease,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T23:06:31.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"note that the bing demo already has multi-step interaction, and google has already demonstrated LaMDA. If google release",decrease,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-03T22:38:29.143000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Because of inference costs, my thinking is that it's more likely that with upcoming product releases people will have wi",increase,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:47:59.349000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"but a partnership, regarding siri, was not announced at wwdc",decrease,hold,False,True,3191.7211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True,True,399.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:54:39.590000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, customized for search. If you’ve used the new Bing in pr",increase,increase,True,True,1792.4585,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,increase,False,True,1707.7056,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True,True,484.5867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T23:34:57.007000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Wha is the timeframe to resolve this,decrease,hold,False,True,10109.2643,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T15:05:49.875000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I hear you, but I am not a fan of the crowd demanding a certain resolution especially on the first or second biggest mar",decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False,True,212.9132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:57:48.684000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Same here, but this market is not one of those.",increase,hold,False,True,2610.6355,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,flip,True,True,812.6806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True,True,1348.3678,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-18T19:55:59.924000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Probably the Google Magi leaks,increase,flip,False,True,562.4714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,increase,False,True,7265.9784,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T12:56:50.337000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,moreover egregious errors should be something unthinkable for humans. Reading through the comments in this market makes ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:47:09.538000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I believe that person on Twitter has misread Gwern's comment on LW. It doesn't say that Gwern talked to Mikhail, just th",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,increase,False,True,298.8922,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,increase,False,True,30678.6734,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-24T17:49:27.814000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Several people are saying something big is happening next week. 😓,increase,flip,False,True,8732.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,decrease,False,True,4305.5118,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True,True,578.934,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,hold,False,True,136.1686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-13T18:54:48.110000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,OAI already has access to GPT-4 and plan to publicly release it soon. It is a smaller model as well,increase,increase,True,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T18:32:55.710000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"fwiw, this market is at 14% and the main market is at 22%. Suggests to me that maybe people do just think the market is ",increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:03:41.381000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Not necessarily true. Water table is extremely high at Boca Chica so that can cause issues. The tension steel between th,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False,True,0.9687,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:19:58.597000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the sandwich question isn’t enough to nudge you to a “yes” resolution, then I would just try out all 10 publicly avai",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,increase,False,True,4305.5118,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,decrease,False,True,30.8841,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False,True,2755.5622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False,True,650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,hold,False,True,99509.5322,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:40.860000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,That being said 20% chance times 50% chance of Starship success is still 10% :),decrease,hold,False,True,7539.7047,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:36.789000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,There's so much liquidity to push through...,increase,hold,False,True,4974.0627,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:30:09.751000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Agreed. And the title would have to be changed. 'by the end of June 2023' and 'at the end of June 2023' don't mean the s,decrease,flip,False,True,84.2542,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,increase,False,True,510.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T22:14:41.957000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,NO holders have an incentive to answer incorrectly.,increase,flip,False,True,5.7367,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True,True,134.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False,True,136.1686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True,True,5550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False,True,188.2656,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:23:28.136000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Found the prompt. Not the chat log, though. +1. Stack of sandwiches: +> Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no c",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,increase,False,True,688.934,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,decrease,False,True,6504.5044,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T00:15:38.471000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,We already know that o3 doesn’t ace SimpleBench. Just take the items on SimpleBench that it fails,increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False,True,1701.2284,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True,True,4305.5118,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True,True,1766.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False,True,89.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True,True,124.8537,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True,True,7031.0166,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T17:53:54.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Just to add my data point, it took about 1.5 hours from signup to approval for me. So still pretty short (but possibly g",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T23:36:31.942000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"easily accessible from Google search home page. +could be a link",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True,True,46294.4953,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T11:10:41.433000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,If you want it to be. But that's not my motivation.,decrease,flip,False,True,5776.9202,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:00:18.810000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"They will, since they’re now under high pressure to actually become profitable, given the huge investment made by Micros",decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:43:34.824000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I feel like I get into/see an argument over resolution criteria every day. People just need to be more careful when maki,decrease,hold,False,True,84.2542,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-17T15:15:25.625000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> But you have to wonder why the odds are so high, right? + My simple theory: kenshin9000_'s AGI fantasy matches that of",increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T00:43:04.411000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, it's an ambiguous situation. I definitely think by 2028 this resolves NO (and I placed a bet as such in that marke",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T17:36:18.567000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,To bet NO on this ever happening!! I didn’t use limit orders to get out of my monster position but didn’t have to when y,increase,hold,False,True,48234.8286,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,increase,flip,False,True,71.7834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,increase,False,True,2457.0861,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-24T11:00:37.838000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If any yes bettors want to make their case, I'd be interested in understanding what people's expectations are, e.g. full",increase,increase,True,True,10899.6007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False,True,46294.4953,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:58:16.797000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Re: +before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majori",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False,True,2730.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T21:11:12.509000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I like them, but yeahhh they can get pretty hairy and distracting. If only there was more middleground between them and ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,hold,False,True,1246.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-04T05:11:13.107000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Are there any other new features of 2023 so far this would compete with?,increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-05T13:35:43.766000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..940ba773f8968f320e808ece81e4970bb57e5d36 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False,True,3811.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True,True,102.7615,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T09:49:26.326000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"So given all the examples that have been found, are you going to resolve YES today?",increase,increase,True,True,5550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:08:34.319000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I think leagues encourage all the right things. Earning profit from good bets and creating markets that get more unique ,increase,increase,True,True,4280.8959,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T17:26:43.617000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I made this market which is quite similar but I will guarantee that it resolves properly and it should not N/A. It will ,increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:21:59.385000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,My understanding was that search is getting simple AI answers and there will be a separate conversational Bart service a,increase,hold,False,True,1050.1417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T20:13:37.550000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I asked some-not-o3 model, for amusement. +[VERY TRICK Q] I have a wolf, a goat and a beaver to transfer using a single ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:27:49.379000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"that is for this comment. The comment about ""try this out"" is new information to me. I wish it had been added to the mar",increase,hold,False,True,196.4674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T11:31:39.035000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I’m betting big on Starship not launching this year again. Even more confident it doesn’t reach orbit at this point as w,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True,True,182.4851,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:54:50.133000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I think some people misread this line: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +ONLY AVAIL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,flip,False,True,1060.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False,True,1446.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False,True,10410.5653,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False,True,11368.9962,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True,True,217.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,increase,False,True,12180.4108,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,flip,False,True,97026.1358,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-21T14:08:49.452000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,The longest outage in recent memory was 45 minutes in July 2022[1]. That gives me a low prior probability for a 60 minut,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False,True,23.8806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False,True,247.966,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,increase,False,True,4500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,increase,False,True,318.3424,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:28:16.562000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,YES is no longer possible. Maybe it was but the link having to be there at the end of the month makes it either NO or N/,increase,flip,False,True,63430.8808,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,increase,False,True,12.5648,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T12:11:34.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,that one point could be bc they calculate with comma values that are rounded to the next integer when displayed. But I d,increase,hold,False,True,503.4944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.6213,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-14T16:04:31.888000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> Billions of games is not nearly enough for this to work. + ""this"" meaning to reach an apparent 1700-1800 Elo rating vi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9692,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T17:25:37.126000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"you confirm that this refers to Bing AI at market creation (February 16 2023), right? Bing AI keeps getting new releases",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,increase,flip,False,True,18.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,flip,False,True,4944.5279,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T05:54:53.403000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?),decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:08:04.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,They are so far away from a good product that they are talking about some storytelling tool that they supposedly cooked ,increase,flip,False,True,7412.1037,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True,True,26.1008,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-03T21:29:09.655000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Which translated from Muskian to english means 60 to 80 weeks.,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False,True,1748.9004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:40:41.685000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes, that's true, but it's too late to N/A now. If it was the right decision, it was a month ago when the issue occurred",increase,increase,True,True,9449.3898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:35:08.585000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Apparently Sydney has been running in several markets for a year, making it seem less likely it's based on GPT-4. +http",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:15:53.113000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the error has to be so egregious that it is completely unthinkable that a human would ever give it, then I think it's",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T01:14:33.959000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah. Even though I would have N/A’d the market in their position, they have outlined exactly what they meant and what t",increase,decrease,False,True,9738.9458,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-06T15:36:34.787000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","unholy union of GPT-4 and the ghost of Garry Kasparov +😂",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T05:58:27.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Ok that's fine, but you must realise it doesn't demonstrate that at all? +Here's the relevant info. +Question was change",increase,flip,False,True,9592.7638,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-04T10:09:35.565000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",ig that was w.r.t the api release?,increase,flip,False,True,117.9922,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-08T22:12:44.593000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",im assuming this resolves NO if his code utilizes stockfish and GPT-4 but just performs equally good to vanilla stockfis,increase,hold,False,True,898.6645,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T22:27:21.674000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Well obviously getting there faster helps if you immediately stop all AI capabilities research AFTER that. The fact that,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:05:18.453000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Oh, yeah I didn't even realize it clarified whole, I think that makes it unambiguously egregiously wrong then.",decrease,flip,False,True,122.4036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-30T23:39:29.620000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","he did not say that the engine is using Stockfish, but his ramblings leave open the possibility for doing just that. The",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False,True,540.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False,True,11.2553,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:51:49.203000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Actually just kidding, this should resolve YES. I missed this in the initial presentation but there's clearly a partners",increase,flip,False,True,1825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,increase,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False,True,3566.0183,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,increase,False,True,6063.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:54:14.147000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,let me know if you want me create a poll for those,decrease,hold,False,True,14.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-01T23:44:01.301000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I'm going to get so bodied if your sources are better,increase,flip,False,True,4502.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T02:02:18.146000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"AFAICT there are two different products here. One is Bard, which has nothing to do with Google Search (other than being ",increase,hold,False,True,6760.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True,True,8135.4449,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,flip,False,True,382.3107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False,True,245.4715,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False,True,3049.0721,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False,True,1570.9195,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True,True,179.8294,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True,True,5484.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False,True,1576.2505,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:10:00.799000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"> most people on the street can answer this. +me, Project Victory, Mactuary, and John-George Salter all got this wrong, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:09:43.232000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I meant in the yes/no sense, but even in the Bayesian update sense, P(claims to be GPT-4| it’s GPT-4) is not necessarily",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False,True,650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T23:40:48.630000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Almost certainly, I’m sure the announcement will come with testimonials from people who have been using it under NDA",increase,increase,True,True,2220.113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,flip,False,True,2914.8006,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-07T11:52:02.247000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,4 engine failures on Booster 7(?). Raptor 2 is not a reliable engine at this point in time and I doubt it’ll get better ,increase,decrease,False,True,2180.2026,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,flip,False,True,383.5221,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True,True,1701.2284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,increase,False,True,8150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False,True,182.4851,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,decrease,False,True,9442.235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-22T22:12:07.447000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Google also probably would want clear value-adds for things added to search products, and the current SOTA text generati",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True,True,725.8427,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T14:57:58.410000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"This question has always said from the beginning ""Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment"" and that ",increase,hold,False,True,10449.618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:22:32.436000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"thanks. I believe you can: +Ask 10 random people on the street +Ask o3 10 times in different threads +Figure out which s",decrease,hold,False,True,9.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False,True,9198.5193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-31T03:43:53.736000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",And yet you have nothing in the market...,increase,hold,False,True,3910.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-04T14:51:28.697000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Cope, seethe, and lose 8.5 kilomarbles about it.",increase,flip,False,True,905.2463,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T19:21:09.438000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My video goes through it extensively, but in short: +Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:11:20.491000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Yea I mean I don't believe much of what Musk says anymore. lol. FSD is coming next year guys I promise!,increase,hold,False,True,805.8107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True,True,8635.7122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:57:42.569000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The thing that brings me to Manifold more than anything else is the obligation I feel to the people who bet on my market,decrease,hold,False,True,81480.8808,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",increase,increase,True,True,860.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:16:18.513000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I fell for the trick question but o3 saw straight through it: ""Twenty pounds of bricks outweigh 20 individual feathers b",increase,increase,True,True,10000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T16:24:54.824000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Has anyone tried the ""Is it 2025?"" prompt that was so difficult for Google? Or related like ""is it June 1st?"". Lmarena d",decrease,hold,False,True,3550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True,True,540.5122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False,True,305.2704,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,increase,False,True,8679.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T13:12:08.527000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,variance on my personal view on this question over time and across categories of arguments has been almost entirely expl,decrease,hold,False,True,47.1378,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True,True,3515.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False,True,1682.2069,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",decrease,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T23:06:31.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"note that the bing demo already has multi-step interaction, and google has already demonstrated LaMDA. If google release",decrease,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-03T22:38:29.143000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Because of inference costs, my thinking is that it's more likely that with upcoming product releases people will have wi",increase,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:47:59.349000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"but a partnership, regarding siri, was not announced at wwdc",decrease,hold,False,True,3191.7211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True,True,399.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:54:39.590000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, customized for search. If you’ve used the new Bing in pr",increase,increase,True,True,1792.4585,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,increase,False,True,1707.7056,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True,True,484.5867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T23:34:57.007000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Wha is the timeframe to resolve this,decrease,hold,False,True,10109.2643,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T15:05:49.875000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I hear you, but I am not a fan of the crowd demanding a certain resolution especially on the first or second biggest mar",decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False,True,212.9132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:57:48.684000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Same here, but this market is not one of those.",increase,hold,False,True,2610.6355,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,flip,True,True,812.6806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True,True,1348.3678,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-18T19:55:59.924000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Probably the Google Magi leaks,increase,flip,False,True,562.4714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,increase,False,True,7265.9784,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T12:56:50.337000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,moreover egregious errors should be something unthinkable for humans. Reading through the comments in this market makes ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:47:09.538000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I believe that person on Twitter has misread Gwern's comment on LW. It doesn't say that Gwern talked to Mikhail, just th",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,increase,False,True,298.8922,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,increase,False,True,30678.6734,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-24T17:49:27.814000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Several people are saying something big is happening next week. 😓,increase,flip,False,True,8732.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,decrease,False,True,4305.5118,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True,True,578.934,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,hold,False,True,136.1686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-13T18:54:48.110000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,OAI already has access to GPT-4 and plan to publicly release it soon. It is a smaller model as well,increase,increase,True,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T18:32:55.710000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"fwiw, this market is at 14% and the main market is at 22%. Suggests to me that maybe people do just think the market is ",increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:03:41.381000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Not necessarily true. Water table is extremely high at Boca Chica so that can cause issues. The tension steel between th,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False,True,0.9687,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:19:58.597000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the sandwich question isn’t enough to nudge you to a “yes” resolution, then I would just try out all 10 publicly avai",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,increase,False,True,4305.5118,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,decrease,False,True,30.8841,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False,True,2755.5622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False,True,650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,hold,False,True,99509.5322,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:40.860000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,That being said 20% chance times 50% chance of Starship success is still 10% :),decrease,hold,False,True,7539.7047,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:36.789000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,There's so much liquidity to push through...,increase,hold,False,True,4974.0627,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:30:09.751000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Agreed. And the title would have to be changed. 'by the end of June 2023' and 'at the end of June 2023' don't mean the s,decrease,flip,False,True,84.2542,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,increase,False,True,510.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T22:14:41.957000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,NO holders have an incentive to answer incorrectly.,increase,flip,False,True,5.7367,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True,True,134.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False,True,136.1686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True,True,5550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False,True,188.2656,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:23:28.136000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Found the prompt. Not the chat log, though. +1. Stack of sandwiches: +> Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no c",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,increase,False,True,688.934,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,decrease,False,True,6504.5044,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T00:15:38.471000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,We already know that o3 doesn’t ace SimpleBench. Just take the items on SimpleBench that it fails,increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False,True,1701.2284,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True,True,4305.5118,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True,True,1766.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False,True,89.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True,True,124.8537,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True,True,7031.0166,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T17:53:54.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Just to add my data point, it took about 1.5 hours from signup to approval for me. So still pretty short (but possibly g",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T23:36:31.942000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"easily accessible from Google search home page. +could be a link",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True,True,46294.4953,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T11:10:41.433000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,If you want it to be. But that's not my motivation.,decrease,flip,False,True,5776.9202,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:00:18.810000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"They will, since they’re now under high pressure to actually become profitable, given the huge investment made by Micros",decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:43:34.824000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I feel like I get into/see an argument over resolution criteria every day. People just need to be more careful when maki,decrease,hold,False,True,84.2542,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-17T15:15:25.625000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> But you have to wonder why the odds are so high, right? + My simple theory: kenshin9000_'s AGI fantasy matches that of",increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T00:43:04.411000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, it's an ambiguous situation. I definitely think by 2028 this resolves NO (and I placed a bet as such in that marke",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T17:36:18.567000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,To bet NO on this ever happening!! I didn’t use limit orders to get out of my monster position but didn’t have to when y,increase,hold,False,True,48234.8286,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,increase,flip,False,True,71.7834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,increase,False,True,2457.0861,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-24T11:00:37.838000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If any yes bettors want to make their case, I'd be interested in understanding what people's expectations are, e.g. full",increase,increase,True,True,10899.6007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False,True,46294.4953,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:58:16.797000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Re: +before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majori",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False,True,2730.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T21:11:12.509000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I like them, but yeahhh they can get pretty hairy and distracting. If only there was more middleground between them and ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,hold,False,True,1246.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-04T05:11:13.107000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Are there any other new features of 2023 so far this would compete with?,increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-05T13:35:43.766000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9f7e786c191c6bdb68ea61770465faf9eb61447a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False,True,3811.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True,True,102.7615,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T09:49:26.326000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"So given all the examples that have been found, are you going to resolve YES today?",increase,increase,True,True,5550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:08:34.319000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I think leagues encourage all the right things. Earning profit from good bets and creating markets that get more unique ,increase,increase,True,True,4280.8959,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T17:26:43.617000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I made this market which is quite similar but I will guarantee that it resolves properly and it should not N/A. It will ,increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False,True,1576.2505,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,increase,flip,False,True,71.7834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,hold,False,True,99509.5322,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:27:49.379000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"that is for this comment. The comment about ""try this out"" is new information to me. I wish it had been added to the mar",increase,hold,False,True,196.4674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:15:09.850000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a link to +bard.google.com + with no waitlist and by the previous title, this should have been resolved as YE",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T20:14:38.331000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",only 1/10 that he runs ~stockfish and wins a game? Come on.,increase,increase,True,True,6203.1421,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True,True,182.4851,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,flip,False,True,97026.1358,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T06:29:19.605000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I think there should be nothing to interpret. Just go to the street and ask this question to a person and see the reply.,decrease,increase,False,True,9.9796,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-16T19:49:55.673000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,please weigh in here. I don’t look forward to losing most of my balance on a market whose title/description changed afte,decrease,flip,False,True,5776.9202,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False,True,1446.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False,True,10410.5653,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False,True,11368.9962,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True,True,217.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,increase,False,True,12180.4108,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:57:39.626000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,None of these statements made outside the WWDC Keynote matter. The market is about the statements made or not made durin,decrease,hold,False,True,9484.0627,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-21T14:08:49.452000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,The longest outage in recent memory was 45 minutes in July 2022[1]. That gives me a low prior probability for a 60 minut,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False,True,23.8806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False,True,247.966,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,increase,False,True,4500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,increase,False,True,318.3424,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:28:16.562000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,YES is no longer possible. Maybe it was but the link having to be there at the end of the month makes it either NO or N/,increase,flip,False,True,63430.8808,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,increase,False,True,12.5648,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T12:11:34.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,that one point could be bc they calculate with comma values that are rounded to the next integer when displayed. But I d,increase,hold,False,True,503.4944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:33:19.849000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Ok so 100% you mean 'at the end of June' and you are sticking with that meaning?,decrease,flip,False,True,84.2542,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-14T06:02:09.087000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Better chance of a room temp superconductor than weak sauce prompt engineering beating engines,increase,hold,False,True,6128.3631,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9692,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:54:56.287000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"This is not an 'integration' per se, right? Seems like it's just letting siri access chatgpt normally?",decrease,hold,False,True,5589.0395,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,increase,flip,False,True,18.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:15:57.177000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Can you send a link to that AI chat log to make it easy for us to follow along from home?,decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:08:04.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,They are so far away from a good product that they are talking about some storytelling tool that they supposedly cooked ,increase,flip,False,True,7412.1037,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True,True,26.1008,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:06:33.274000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,This is just from what I can see in that photo. Who knows if it caused more issues that we can’t see,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:57:07.141000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Yea this is the final nail in an already pretty dead coffin. Literally says they're partnering around Siri and that it w,decrease,flip,False,True,2825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:40:41.685000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes, that's true, but it's too late to N/A now. If it was the right decision, it was a month ago when the issue occurred",increase,increase,True,True,9449.3898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T16:34:25.477000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Forgot to reply to your actual question, sorry! +I think the difference between something available on the Google homepa",decrease,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T01:14:33.959000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah. Even though I would have N/A’d the market in their position, they have outlined exactly what they meant and what t",increase,decrease,False,True,9738.9458,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T11:31:39.035000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I’m betting big on Starship not launching this year again. Even more confident it doesn’t reach orbit at this point as w,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T05:58:27.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Ok that's fine, but you must realise it doesn't demonstrate that at all? +Here's the relevant info. +Question was change",increase,flip,False,True,9592.7638,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-04T10:09:35.565000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",ig that was w.r.t the api release?,increase,flip,False,True,117.9922,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-06T15:36:34.787000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","unholy union of GPT-4 and the ghost of Garry Kasparov +😂",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T22:27:21.674000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Well obviously getting there faster helps if you immediately stop all AI capabilities research AFTER that. The fact that,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-01-28T16:21:17.774000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"the newer raptor 2s are meant to be much more reliable, and static fires will always cause more damage to engines than i",increase,increase,True,True,70.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False,True,540.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T05:35:02.598000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,so much for taking a break from manifold 😂,decrease,hold,False,True,20.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:13.574000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Apple didn’t announce it though. OpenAI did.,increase,flip,False,True,4000.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,increase,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False,True,3566.0183,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,increase,False,True,6063.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:09.322000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I guess. I'd think that Scott cares enough about prediction markets that he would stick to explicit precommits when he k,decrease,flip,False,True,7539.7047,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T18:02:40.262000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I was just asking it about a videogame, not even trying to make it make errors.",decrease,hold,False,True,250.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-01T23:44:01.301000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I'm going to get so bodied if your sources are better,increase,flip,False,True,4502.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T02:02:18.146000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"AFAICT there are two different products here. One is Bard, which has nothing to do with Google Search (other than being ",increase,hold,False,True,6760.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True,True,8135.4449,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,flip,False,True,382.3107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-30T20:32:47.675000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Well, the LLM is certainly parsing the ASCII as just pure text in markdown. And I do think the average person off the st",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False,True,245.4715,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False,True,3049.0721,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False,True,1570.9195,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True,True,179.8294,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True,True,5484.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:27:48.898000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The other guy said ""Something unthinkable for humans"", I'm responding to that.",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False,True,11.2553,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-24T15:11:37.788000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Note that ""much more powerful than GPT-3.5"" is probably a lower bar than question resolution. Bing's chatbot needs to be",decrease,increase,False,True,34.4432,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False,True,650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T23:40:48.630000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Almost certainly, I’m sure the announcement will come with testimonials from people who have been using it under NDA",increase,increase,True,True,2220.113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:49:24.992000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"Pretty much agree with you, with a small chance that he'd rule something effectively like N/A, like ""ill defined criteri",decrease,hold,False,True,7539.7047,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T20:12:44.137000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If you wanted to go with the marmot one, clarifying what a marmot is seems to help o3 not at all ( +e.g. +) and avoids t",decrease,flip,False,True,10150.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-02T08:53:07.369000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Keep buying Yes guys!!! Free Mana for me,increase,flip,False,True,1721.9689,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,flip,False,True,383.5221,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True,True,1701.2284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,increase,False,True,8150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False,True,182.4851,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T13:50:03.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"And it would IMHO be acceptable for o3 to ask such clarifying questions (in fact, in some variations of the prompt it so",decrease,increase,False,True,4550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,decrease,False,True,9442.235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-30T23:39:29.620000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","he did not say that the engine is using Stockfish, but his ramblings leave open the possibility for doing just that. The",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True,True,725.8427,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-25T20:49:53.932000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",maybe that's its turing test. If it succeeds being in the center of attention for long enough without being called out i,increase,flip,False,True,9.9267,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-09T15:18:33.713000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes absolutely, the answers these things give are probabalistic and unreliable, I put together a whole YouTube video on ",decrease,flip,False,True,56.529,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-31T03:43:53.736000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",And yet you have nothing in the market...,increase,hold,False,True,3910.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-04T14:51:28.697000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Cope, seethe, and lose 8.5 kilomarbles about it.",increase,flip,False,True,905.2463,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,hold,False,True,136.1686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False,True,89.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T23:56:33.793000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I think the damage implies a redesign of the launch platform itself. Repairing the pad won’t do much good if they’re for,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True,True,8635.7122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",increase,increase,True,True,860.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:16:18.513000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I fell for the trick question but o3 saw straight through it: ""Twenty pounds of bricks outweigh 20 individual feathers b",increase,increase,True,True,10000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:45:00.648000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"it's not ambiguous IMO, but the resolution is clearly going to upset people either way.",decrease,flip,False,True,8484.0627,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True,True,540.5122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False,True,305.2704,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,increase,False,True,8679.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False,True,9198.5193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True,True,3515.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T22:56:38.655000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"why I'm buying so much yes: +- bing is creating an enormous amount of pressure on google +- google has been said to have",decrease,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False,True,1682.2069,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:53:39.121000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I'm not sure whether ""OpenAI treats Apple as a regular customer"".",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-03T22:38:29.143000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Because of inference costs, my thinking is that it's more likely that with upcoming product releases people will have wi",increase,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False,True,1748.9004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T19:25:52.349000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"No idea how to update on this. Something's going to be ""more widely available"" in ""the coming weeks"". +That's a short ti",decrease,hold,False,True,200.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True,True,399.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:03:41.381000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Not necessarily true. Water table is extremely high at Boca Chica so that can cause issues. The tension steel between th,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,increase,False,True,1707.7056,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-05T07:37:55.618000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,Suppose Bing sometimes uses GPT-4 to generate tokens and sometimes uses a model that isn't GPT-4. How would this resolve,decrease,flip,False,True,41.0913,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True,True,484.5867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-12T12:52:48.672000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Looking at random bronze leagues. I think leagues may be negative for retention among people in those leagues, ie new us",decrease,decrease,True,True,800.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False,True,212.9132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:57:48.684000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Same here, but this market is not one of those.",increase,hold,False,True,2610.6355,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,flip,True,True,812.6806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True,True,1348.3678,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-18T19:55:59.924000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Probably the Google Magi leaks,increase,flip,False,True,562.4714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,increase,False,True,7265.9784,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:13:50.170000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""Apparently Mikhail has spoken to Gwern personally and told him bingchat does not use gpt4. I'll take his word on it."" +",increase,flip,False,True,1.1752,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:07:33.001000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I think humanizing any side, be it the bettors or the market creator, is likely to lead to worse decisions. +Emotional a",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,increase,False,True,30678.6734,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,flip,False,True,1060.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-24T17:49:27.814000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Several people are saying something big is happening next week. 😓,increase,flip,False,True,8732.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,decrease,False,True,4305.5118,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True,True,578.934,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:47:09.538000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I believe that person on Twitter has misread Gwern's comment on LW. It doesn't say that Gwern talked to Mikhail, just th",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T18:32:55.710000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"fwiw, this market is at 14% and the main market is at 22%. Suggests to me that maybe people do just think the market is ",increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T17:17:04.313000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","ok, maybe they are not the clearest. But where exactly does he state he is designing a new version of stockfish? I don't",increase,decrease,False,True,5728.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False,True,0.9687,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:19:58.597000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the sandwich question isn’t enough to nudge you to a “yes” resolution, then I would just try out all 10 publicly avai",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,increase,False,True,4305.5118,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,decrease,False,True,30.8841,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False,True,2755.5622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False,True,650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-05T15:54:31.449000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Liek +, I also understand ""accessible from Google search homepage"" as ""available directly on the Google search homepage",decrease,hold,False,True,110.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.6213,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:10.723000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Yeah - ""For a positive resolution there has to be a partnership between Apple and OpenAI. This means that OpenAI cannot ",increase,increase,True,True,138.2656,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,increase,False,True,510.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T15:31:37.667000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"This article seems to be the source of everything we know about the event: +https://www.reddit.com/r/apple/comments/1da8",increase,hold,False,True,1505.6736,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True,True,134.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False,True,136.1686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True,True,5550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False,True,188.2656,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,increase,False,True,688.934,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,decrease,False,True,6504.5044,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T22:18:38.570000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"if that’s from mine, my custom prompt tells it to generate the three follow-up questions. I have that so I can often jus",increase,hold,False,True,5.857,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False,True,1701.2284,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True,True,4305.5118,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True,True,1766.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,flip,False,True,2914.8006,FLIP,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True,True,124.8537,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True,True,7031.0166,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T09:14:48.492000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Bard is currently linked on +Google.com + for me. +In private browsing mode and the Manifold embedded browser +Google",decrease,hold,False,True,1694.6495,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True,True,46294.4953,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,flip,False,True,4944.5279,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:38:43.232000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I find it strange that they 1) Chose 1970s gameshow decor 2) hired Tim Cook to give this presentation.,decrease,flip,False,True,28.437,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:12.347000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"No yea, you're right. I missed the integration of chatGPT specifically with Siri at first.",increase,flip,False,True,1825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-07-24T07:25:53.992000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Good response. The reason I asked this specifically is because how I would personally define orbit. ICBMs that reach orb,increase,hold,False,True,421.9689,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T17:36:18.567000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,To bet NO on this ever happening!! I didn’t use limit orders to get out of my monster position but didn’t have to when y,increase,hold,False,True,48234.8286,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:58:41.549000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"I wish Predict good luck with resolving this, and I urge them not to resolve based on the market probability",increase,hold,False,True,6441.8466,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,increase,False,True,2457.0861,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-24T11:00:37.838000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If any yes bettors want to make their case, I'd be interested in understanding what people's expectations are, e.g. full",increase,increase,True,True,10899.6007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False,True,46294.4953,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,increase,False,True,298.8922,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False,True,2730.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T21:11:12.509000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I like them, but yeahhh they can get pretty hairy and distracting. If only there was more middleground between them and ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,hold,False,True,1246.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-04T05:11:13.107000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Are there any other new features of 2023 so far this would compete with?,increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T21:46:18.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,wait you expect them to leave a promotion on the page for two months?? You seem to agree that this hit all the condition,decrease,hold,False,True,266.5822,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-05T13:35:43.766000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..940ba773f8968f320e808ece81e4970bb57e5d36 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-14T23:22:57.352000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I assume because it’s trained on data that is prior to the release of avatar and it assuming the date is the last day of,flip,hold,False,True,3811.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-31T01:05:48.284000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Gurman’s only mention there of an OpenAI deal seems separate from the Siri update: +The company also has been forging a ",flip,flip,True,True,102.7615,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T09:49:26.326000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"So given all the examples that have been found, are you going to resolve YES today?",increase,increase,True,True,5550.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T01:08:34.319000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I think leagues encourage all the right things. Earning profit from good bets and creating markets that get more unique ,increase,increase,True,True,4280.8959,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T17:26:43.617000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I made this market which is quite similar but I will guarantee that it resolves properly and it should not N/A. It will ,increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T16:39:18.771000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"https://www.cnet.com/tech/expect-googles-answer-to-chatgpt-ai-chatbot-in-a-few-weeks-ceo-says/ +""In the coming weeks and",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-30T22:36:12.854000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The analysis I've seen suggests it could get to orbit as SSTO provided it has no payload: +https://m.youtube.com/watch?",hold,flip,False,True,20.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:21:59.385000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,My understanding was that search is getting simple AI answers and there will be a separate conversational Bart service a,increase,hold,False,True,1050.1417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-23T22:14:53.881000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"That's true, but remember the market mentions just that it will include the chatbot. I've assumed this doesn't necessari",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T20:13:37.550000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I asked some-not-o3 model, for amusement. +[VERY TRICK Q] I have a wolf, a goat and a beaver to transfer using a single ",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:54.609000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Works very consistently on LMArena, unsure if your ChatGPT account/tool use might change anything",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T22:30:04.811000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I think the differentiation is between it being original material or content (it is) and a novel concept (which seems to,hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:27:49.379000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"that is for this comment. The comment about ""try this out"" is new information to me. I wish it had been added to the mar",increase,hold,False,True,196.4674,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-14T21:02:38.239000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"FYI: While I do think this market should be N/A, + has offered to reimburse any losses people incur upon market close.",decrease,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-21T11:31:39.035000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,I’m betting big on Starship not launching this year again. Even more confident it doesn’t reach orbit at this point as w,increase,increase,True,True,455.8107,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-12T18:00:31.632000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,It will probably fix itself shortly after refreshing/the app updates itself,hold,hold,True,True,182.4851,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:49:20.418000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"https://x.com/sama/status/1800237314360127905 +sama literally says ""partnership"" for this to be resolved no would be ins",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T16:50:33.502000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"seems perfectly fine to me. GPT is not allowed to just answer ""what?"" So it does the next best thing and makes fun of yo",flip,flip,True,True,800.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T23:54:50.133000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I think some people misread this line: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +ONLY AVAIL",decrease,increase,False,True,500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:17:49.324000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,I would guess most regular people have heard the trick question version by now. It's a pretty common trick question.,decrease,hold,False,True,300.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T04:16:18.473000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If Bard is single response per query with no back-and-forth chatting, does this resolve YES or NO?",decrease,flip,False,True,1060.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-05T01:56:55.222000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Your right markets shouldn't be able to, as you've put it, hard fork. My solution to prevent this from happening again, ",flip,hold,False,True,1446.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T20:32:56.740000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I spent m$10 for 53 YES shares quite some time ago; it’s still a +49% profit, but I’m not gonna sell it, because this se",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T11:11:00.909000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,This happened last time too. Maybe it's an AB test and it'll go back to 30% in a couple days after the volatility blows ,flip,hold,False,True,10410.5653,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-18T05:58:19.778000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"https://www.reuters.com/technology/after-elon-musks-ultimatum-twitter-employees-start-exiting-2022-11-18/ +Reporting in ",decrease,increase,False,True,483.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-29T00:53:24.496000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,It's the website that's failing,decrease,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T03:47:32.857000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,He made comments 3 months ago clarifying but it never made it into the description so most people didn't notice. But the,flip,hold,False,True,11368.9962,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T12:00:46.773000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"also o3 has no problems talking about bad words: +That’s pretty subjective—different cultures and communities rank swear",hold,hold,True,True,217.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:27.824000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"“Resolves YES if both Apple and OpenAI acknowledge it as a partnership, collaboration, or similar term” +Easy yes",hold,increase,False,True,12180.4108,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:53:05.419000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought my first NO at 43% and never above 50%. There is still plenty of money to be made here with some smart limit or,decrease,flip,False,True,97026.1358,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-21T14:08:49.452000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,The longest outage in recent memory was 45 minutes in July 2022[1]. That gives me a low prior probability for a 60 minut,increase,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-29T17:13:38.696000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Did you just see my joke comment below and think, ""hey, that's a good idea, I'm going to pump the market by manipulating",hold,flip,False,True,23.8806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-06T16:01:25.400000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"“AGI” means generalized intelligence, not a specific use case. The use case is also defined by the capabilities so this ",flip,hold,False,True,247.966,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:03:02.343000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Here's another way of looking at this: if Apple were to announce an integration with ChatGPT but no partnership, how wou",hold,increase,False,True,4500.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:25:20.404000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Egregious errors are wrong answers to crystal clear questions. +If the prompt is murky enough that a human has to ask, t",flip,increase,False,True,318.3424,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T22:28:16.562000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,YES is no longer possible. Maybe it was but the link having to be there at the end of the month makes it either NO or N/,increase,flip,False,True,63430.8808,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T00:49:59.320000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"that will buff out. let's go, Musk!",hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-24T20:47:08.670000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"A huge number of markets were created about Leagues, mostly in the ""Personal Goals"" category: +https://manifold.markets",flip,increase,False,True,12.5648,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T12:11:34.818000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,that one point could be bc they calculate with comma values that are rounded to the next integer when displayed. But I d,increase,hold,False,True,503.4944,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T19:39:37.703000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The M1 profit is overall for all trades you made on this market. The profit on the sell screen is the profit that those ,decrease,hold,False,True,120.6213,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-19T05:47:37.987000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"For this market, that would be a NO, in my opinion. +I think Apple will retain tight control over the primary on-board",hold,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-14T16:04:31.888000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> Billions of games is not nearly enough for this to work. + ""this"" meaning to reach an apparent 1700-1800 Elo rating vi",increase,increase,True,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T04:41:42.701000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,the question asks for whole sandwiches. There are two partial sandwiches at the end,hold,flip,False,True,75.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-14T23:05:27.439000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Sorry, ilya quit OpenAI seconds before you placed that... the order will come back.",flip,flip,True,True,237.9692,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-04T17:25:37.126000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"you confirm that this refers to Bing AI at market creation (February 16 2023), right? Bing AI keeps getting new releases",decrease,increase,False,True,40.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:32.610000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,I wonder if this podcast was made for this market. Ep 1 is exactly 1sec longer than it needs to be,increase,flip,False,True,18.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-03T03:04:32.553000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Random YouTubers are shipping models vastly superior to a 1T company. +Cover at zero.",decrease,flip,False,True,4944.5279,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:42:59.671000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"They're nearly always A/B testing various features. Usually they're small things like colours, sticky headers, changes t",flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-05-24T05:54:53.403000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,Apple absolutely hates Microsoft (and didn't they announce their using Google Gemini?),decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T18:08:04.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,They are so far away from a good product that they are talking about some storytelling tool that they supposedly cooked ,increase,flip,False,True,7412.1037,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T10:52:25.213000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Manifold should include the capability to roll back trades to a resolution date perhaps. But yeah, pretty unfortunate.",hold,hold,True,True,26.1008,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-06T08:02:59.577000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,I remember hearing that they were considering making it so that only bonuses from markets created this month count - cou,hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:15:00.546000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"So, you take the gain of the person each day, and then average that to get their final score? I like that, actually. +E",hold,hold,True,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T19:18:35.963000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing des",hold,increase,False,True,60.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-03T11:22:42.520000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""the person deleted their account"" - which person are you referring to?",hold,hold,True,True,30.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-20T20:49:14.635000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Thanks to everyone for the feedback and letting me cause some chaos in this market. Episode 6 is up, and I swear the qua",hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-03T21:29:09.655000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Which translated from Muskian to english means 60 to 80 weeks.,increase,increase,True,True,140.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T11:25:22.035000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,just created my first multichoice market. Simply a much better quality thing. There are so many markets of my own that w,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:42:42.228000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"This fits all of +'s criteria and more. The Twitter Spaces outage was a longer than 1h major outage that was reported o",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-02T03:45:59.616000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Aw thanks, that’s very generous of you! I wouldn’t turn down free money I suppose, but since it’s not contingent on Ep 6",decrease,hold,False,True,1748.9004,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:40:41.685000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yes, that's true, but it's too late to N/A now. If it was the right decision, it was a month ago when the issue occurred",increase,increase,True,True,9449.3898,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T18:35:08.585000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"Apparently Sydney has been running in several markets for a year, making it seem less likely it's based on GPT-4. +http",decrease,decrease,True,True,50.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:15:53.113000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the error has to be so egregious that it is completely unthinkable that a human would ever give it, then I think it's",decrease,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T01:14:33.959000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah. Even though I would have N/A’d the market in their position, they have outlined exactly what they meant and what t",increase,decrease,False,True,9738.9458,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-06T15:36:34.787000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","unholy union of GPT-4 and the ghost of Garry Kasparov +😂",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-17T05:58:27.112000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Ok that's fine, but you must realise it doesn't demonstrate that at all? +Here's the relevant info. +Question was change",increase,flip,False,True,9592.7638,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-04T10:09:35.565000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",ig that was w.r.t the api release?,increase,flip,False,True,117.9922,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-08T22:12:44.593000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",im assuming this resolves NO if his code utilizes stockfish and GPT-4 but just performs equally good to vanilla stockfis,increase,hold,False,True,898.6645,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T22:27:21.674000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Well obviously getting there faster helps if you immediately stop all AI capabilities research AFTER that. The fact that,increase,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:54:19.422000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majority of ",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T20:05:18.453000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Oh, yeah I didn't even realize it clarified whole, I think that makes it unambiguously egregiously wrong then.",decrease,flip,False,True,122.4036,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-30T23:39:29.620000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","he did not say that the engine is using Stockfish, but his ramblings leave open the possibility for doing just that. The",increase,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-21T15:14:03.766000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"It doesn’t resolve based on the title, but rather the description, which says: +“this market resolves based on whether i",flip,hold,False,True,540.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-10T17:55:44.458000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I love volatile markets where nobody know what’s going on,decrease,hold,False,True,11.2553,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:51:49.203000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Actually just kidding, this should resolve YES. I missed this in the initial presentation but there's clearly a partners",increase,flip,False,True,1825.5683,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:31:17.147000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,Do you just go over the percentages displayed on various markets?!,increase,hold,False,True,3.8728,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:29:39.520000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm not seeing it on any of my devices. Might try spinning up my vpn to see if that does anything.,flip,hold,False,True,3566.0183,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T09:41:29.056000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Come on everyone - lets buy more YES shares to increase the chance that GPT-4 gets released soon. I've been replacing my,flip,increase,False,True,6063.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-03T18:25:11.523000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"my understanding is that a chatbot requires back-and-forth dialogue like the +ChatGPT interface +, but Pichai's stateme",decrease,hold,False,True,1150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T15:54:14.147000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,let me know if you want me create a poll for those,decrease,hold,False,True,14.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-01T23:44:01.301000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I'm going to get so bodied if your sources are better,increase,flip,False,True,4502.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T02:02:18.146000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"AFAICT there are two different products here. One is Bard, which has nothing to do with Google Search (other than being ",increase,hold,False,True,6760.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:43:41.524000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,I don't even know how this resolves,hold,hold,True,True,8135.4449,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T02:10:36.308000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I think this is the big issue because it shouldn’t really be a subjective choice. Either is is or it isn’t. Big problemo,hold,flip,False,True,382.3107,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:06:52.450000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Here's a candidate prompt; o3 had not answered by the time I post this comment but it might fail. +--- +Shuffle letters ",decrease,increase,False,True,5.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:16:36.937000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The estimate that 5-10% is based on purely on Google adding it between now and June 30 seems right to me, but I think th",flip,hold,False,True,245.4715,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-30T11:59:53.838000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"I've made a market to hedge on scotts decision +https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/if-starship-manages-a-near-orbit",flip,hold,False,True,3049.0721,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:06:49.405000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"From the description: +""All US users get access but it's not in other locales"" does count. +That's an example of somethi",flip,hold,False,True,1570.9195,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-07-29T01:21:02.230000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"Oh, nevermind, Episode 1 doesn't count since it's less than 20 minutes. So this market is approximately equivalent to ""W",flip,flip,True,True,179.8294,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-04T12:06:57.948000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,It was just a late April Fools joke guys sorry to break it to you,flip,flip,True,True,5484.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:59:23.252000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,We can use the context from OpenAI's statements to infer that it's more than a regular customer-developer relationship. ,hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T13:45:28.245000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There - if you want to get out, you can. I might sell more later.",decrease,hold,False,True,1576.2505,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T21:10:00.799000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"> most people on the street can answer this. +me, Project Victory, Mactuary, and John-George Salter all got this wrong, ",decrease,decrease,True,True,250.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-04-28T21:49:05.752000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Wow, bold question! I actually do think it could be the most impactful feature.",flip,flip,True,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:09:43.232000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I meant in the yes/no sense, but even in the Bayesian update sense, P(claims to be GPT-4| it’s GPT-4) is not necessarily",decrease,decrease,True,True,40.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T11:21:10.018000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",I have been trying to get it to replicate what you got and it refuses to even engage on the subject.,hold,flip,False,True,650.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T23:40:48.630000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Almost certainly, I’m sure the announcement will come with testimonials from people who have been using it under NDA",increase,increase,True,True,2220.113,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-29T16:06:19.608000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"chopsticks are functional, digging trenches and pouring concrete arent a big deal +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evO4",flip,hold,False,True,125.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T08:26:19.453000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society,decrease,flip,False,True,2914.8006,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:20:02.687000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"@agentydragon I bought into this market when it said ""BY"" June, and you've repeated it again here by mistake. It's misle",decrease,flip,False,True,230.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-08-07T11:52:02.247000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,4 engine failures on Booster 7(?). Raptor 2 is not a reliable engine at this point in time and I doubt it’ll get better ,increase,decrease,False,True,2180.2026,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-05T18:07:44.073000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","That doesn't sound like a sensical argument for why faster capabilities might help?. +Like I think there's clearly a lot",decrease,flip,False,True,383.5221,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:29:33.762000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Will I be alive presupposes that something does +not + happen. Will I be dead resolves upon a positive action (death) o",flip,flip,True,True,1701.2284,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-21T21:39:28.014000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Can you list the features which you are going to count ahead of time, so we don't have this argument again when somethin",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:18.366000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,They specifically said Siri can defer to ChatGPT using the normal Siri interface. It doesn’t completely replace the on-d,hold,increase,False,True,8150.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T07:32:49.905000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"hmm this makes sense to me, now leaning slightly towards manifold love will count as an option in the vote.",hold,flip,False,True,182.4851,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T14:49:50.442000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,We could even figure out how to do it at market so you can get the profit back to your portfolio too and not just the ma,decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T02:41:55.640000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If I was less tired I'd probably write a long rant about why it's +important + to be lawyerly on prediction platforms. ",flip,hold,False,True,134.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T20:40:08.089000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Sell those YES shares while you still can. If this market closed today, it would be a NO. And if this hits the 20s, you ",flip,decrease,False,True,9442.235,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-22T22:12:07.447000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Google also probably would want clear value-adds for things added to search products, and the current SOTA text generati",increase,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:38:54.291000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I guess this comes down to how the market should be resolved. Technically, both of the stated resolution criteria (promo",flip,flip,True,True,725.8427,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T14:57:58.410000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"This question has always said from the beginning ""Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment"" and that ",increase,hold,False,True,10449.618,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:17:20.543000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"oh this is 5 weeks if we're counting Mon-Sun period +This should resolve yes",increase,increase,True,True,1180.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T08:22:32.436000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"thanks. I believe you can: +Ask 10 random people on the street +Ask o3 10 times in different threads +Figure out which s",decrease,hold,False,True,9.9796,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-08T20:20:11.911000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I know I said below that I didn't think the marmot/chicken question was a good choice, but I just ran some tests and it ",decrease,hold,False,True,9198.5193,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-31T03:43:53.736000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",And yet you have nothing in the market...,increase,hold,False,True,3910.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-04T14:51:28.697000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Cope, seethe, and lose 8.5 kilomarbles about it.",increase,flip,False,True,905.2463,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:29:36.874000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"it's not that they ""could"". O3 also could. But people misunderstand and interpret your intentions in a non literal way, ",decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-06T19:21:09.438000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"My video goes through it extensively, but in short: +Large Language Model (LLM), such as BERT is a parrot with the input",decrease,flip,False,True,10.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-04-22T01:11:20.491000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Yea I mean I don't believe much of what Musk says anymore. lol. FSD is coming next year guys I promise!,increase,hold,False,True,805.8107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-22T22:21:08.823000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The bot is unnecessary. Just bring all creator comments to the top of the thread.,flip,flip,True,True,8635.7122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T12:57:42.569000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The thing that brings me to Manifold more than anything else is the obligation I feel to the people who bet on my market,decrease,hold,False,True,81480.8808,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-15T23:46:47.461000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Unsure of what other people think or what the metrics reflect, but from a personal experience I went from using manifold",increase,increase,True,True,860.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:17:40.808000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,did you use the exact same prompt? I tested o3 a couple times and it failed consistently on the one posted.,flip,increase,False,True,100.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T20:16:18.513000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I fell for the trick question but o3 saw straight through it: ""Twenty pounds of bricks outweigh 20 individual feathers b",increase,increase,True,True,10000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T16:24:54.824000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Has anyone tried the ""Is it 2025?"" prompt that was so difficult for Google? Or related like ""is it June 1st?"". Lmarena d",decrease,hold,False,True,3550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T13:24:00.905000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,What do you mean by M10 invested ? I have invested M585 in this market. I'm not switching to No because I don't want to ,hold,hold,True,True,540.5122,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-10T20:12:08.937000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Anyone here getting o3-pro? I don't expect it to be tuned to these types of questions, but will be interesting to see an",flip,hold,False,True,305.2704,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-11T13:04:43.154000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I see the appeal of including things like unique trader bonuses, creating interesting markets feels like it fits into ""w",flip,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T19:08:14.526000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"aahh haha. Got me too, I misread the question",hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T20:26:47.517000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Amazing, who could've predicted this. Who could've known that GPT-4 would be released on time, that Bing is based on GPT",flip,increase,False,True,8679.9589,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T13:12:08.527000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,variance on my personal view on this question over time and across categories of arguments has been almost entirely expl,decrease,hold,False,True,47.1378,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:10:54.484000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",For all people who think itll be released in the next week.,flip,flip,True,True,3515.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T15:13:11.827000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"e.g. o4-mini failed: +rD. riHrsa psedexser rhoror ta eth rcurent reror tera. +sThi reritble rmrior efrcelts a rcroupt ra",decrease,flip,False,True,5.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T19:15:44.331000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I'm okay if the market creator wants to wait to resolve the market. No rush. I also feel like you are stretching the int,flip,hold,False,True,1682.2069,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T13:08:00.310000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I bought and sold around 98.5% myself getting some profit. +I sold all the no as I think this should resolve as yes now.",decrease,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T23:06:31.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"note that the bing demo already has multi-step interaction, and google has already demonstrated LaMDA. If google release",decrease,increase,False,True,2250.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-03T22:38:29.143000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Because of inference costs, my thinking is that it's more likely that with upcoming product releases people will have wi",increase,decrease,False,True,225.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-12T01:31:30.309000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, give a whirl. I’m happy for no result at the moment if not everyone has it!",decrease,hold,False,True,800.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:47:59.349000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"but a partnership, regarding siri, was not announced at wwdc",decrease,hold,False,True,3191.7211,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:46:00.752000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"At this point I'm just trolling. +But it's not like my interpretation is wrong. The question is distinctly different to;",hold,flip,False,True,26.1008,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-19T18:44:55.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"FWIW, this is why I didn't bet more. This is the content I wanted to make (that I'd want to listen to, once I polish up ",hold,hold,True,True,399.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-14T17:54:39.590000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"""We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, customized for search. If you’ve used the new Bing in pr",increase,increase,True,True,1792.4585,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-24T18:44:08.559000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Sold my No shares--it sounds like the only qualification for a ""major outage"" is if we're met with a 502 page for an hou",hold,flip,False,True,93.0249,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:18:14.194000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Twitter Spaces outage was also on the front page of techmeme: +https://www.techmeme.com/221216/h0810",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-26T18:08:37.812000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Just got access to the Google Search Labs chatbot.,flip,increase,False,True,1707.7056,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T14:43:48.510000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"I agree, we have all participated in the market with a different understanding of what was described. In this era, only ",decrease,flip,False,True,200.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-18T00:55:19.217000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I don't know that I would resolve it YES, so that's at least one counterexample to the claim that ""everyone knows"" I wou",flip,flip,True,True,484.5867,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T23:34:57.007000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Wha is the timeframe to resolve this,decrease,hold,False,True,10109.2643,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:32:29.607000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Distinctions here are fuzzy, but “dating” feels like a broad enough new category that I would call +manifold.love + a “",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-11T15:05:49.875000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I hear you, but I am not a fan of the crowd demanding a certain resolution especially on the first or second biggest mar",decrease,hold,False,True,97026.1358,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T08:07:02.695000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"good find. For me it failed on (I tried three random ones): +Agatha makes a stack of 5 cold, fresh single-slice ham sand",hold,flip,False,True,212.9132,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:57:48.684000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Same here, but this market is not one of those.",increase,hold,False,True,2610.6355,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:51:25.797000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Making ambiguous criteria more precise is one thing, but actually changing the criteria—from ""by"" to ""at,"" which is a hu",flip,flip,True,True,812.6806,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-14T06:33:07.423000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","With the success of chatGPT, I think it’s likely that focus at OpenAI has shifted towards improving it. I think the next",hold,hold,True,True,1348.3678,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-01-24T00:49:42.215000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Great. Why isn't that in the (blank) description for the market.,flip,hold,False,True,75.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-18T19:55:59.924000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Probably the Google Magi leaks,increase,flip,False,True,562.4714,FLIP,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:52:40.433000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"Also see verge headline ""Apple partners with OpenAI""",hold,increase,False,True,21286.004,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T19:08:08.557000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"The Bard link is already gone for me, and I can't see any way to access Bard from google.com . Also checked with a proxy",flip,increase,False,True,7265.9784,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T12:56:50.337000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,moreover egregious errors should be something unthinkable for humans. Reading through the comments in this market makes ,decrease,hold,False,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-02T02:29:37.384000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"Hang on, I should make sure: is this based on actual earnings, or on portfolio value? If it's actual earnings then my co",hold,hold,True,True,1100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T13:51:06.912000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"well this is is how it works around here and we like it that way, I suggest you get used to it.",flip,hold,False,True,160.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-07T18:47:09.538000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"I believe that person on Twitter has misread Gwern's comment on LW. It doesn't say that Gwern talked to Mikhail, just th",increase,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:28:16.083000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"plenty of markets here in the previous launch, including mine, happily adapted their criteria to include the near-orbita",flip,hold,False,True,150.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-11-26T21:42:36.272000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"The pilot episode of + Manifold: Live! + is now streaming at +https://www.twitch.tv/manifoldlive + and in the +Manifol",decrease,increase,False,True,298.8922,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-20T21:22:45.870000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Yeah, I no longer have any idea what criteria @MP is using to resolve this market :-/",hold,flip,False,True,110.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T14:30:30.837000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,Any thoughts on weather simplebench questions count?,hold,hold,True,True,227.9132,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:21:56.685000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"The situation as I see it +Apple announces chatGPT / GPT-4o integration into Siri. They do not use the word partnership,",hold,increase,False,True,30678.6734,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2023-12-12T15:37:46.717000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",Pre-prompting isn't going to make it better than every existing engine unless he tells it what all the engines think is ,flip,flip,True,True,50.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T05:03:36.681000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Please someone showcase this market and get it in the Manifold Showcase for extra lulz,decrease,hold,False,True,55.0417,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-24T17:49:27.814000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Several people are saying something big is happening next week. 😓,increase,flip,False,True,8732.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:21:03.165000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Could be blocked by Microsoft.,flip,decrease,False,True,4305.5118,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T02:31:51.938000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"and what would a person off the street say? No way they'd get it right. +I predict they'd mostly say chauldron isn't a w",flip,flip,True,True,578.934,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T23:25:14.649000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,But look at the history and confusion about resolution conditions that Rai has presented. It's quite possible that in th,decrease,hold,False,True,136.1686,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-13T18:54:48.110000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,OAI already has access to GPT-4 and plan to publicly release it soon. It is a smaller model as well,increase,increase,True,True,75.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-09T18:32:55.710000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"fwiw, this market is at 14% and the main market is at 22%. Suggests to me that maybe people do just think the market is ",increase,hold,False,True,5203.1963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-05-01T01:03:41.381000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,Not necessarily true. Water table is extremely high at Boca Chica so that can cause issues. The tension steel between th,increase,decrease,False,True,805.8107,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-07T13:55:15.252000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,note that I am arguing against my own profit,hold,flip,False,True,0.9687,FLIP,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-21T00:14:20.620000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,a guaranteed listen! That's like a free 5% boost in my stats 😜,hold,increase,False,True,409.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:19:58.597000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"If the sandwich question isn’t enough to nudge you to a “yes” resolution, then I would just try out all 10 publicly avai",increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T16:10:30.191000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google Search Labs is available to EVERYONE.,flip,increase,False,True,4305.5118,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T21:50:50.060000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","not dense, according to my source. But my source doesn't have access to the weights themselves so this could be speculat",flip,decrease,False,True,30.8841,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-06T04:14:54.982000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,oh wait I don't have liquidity nvm,flip,hold,False,True,2755.5622,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-19T22:23:08.081000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"There was a Bard button on my (default) Chrome new tab page, but seems like it was transient, and maybe only for a subse",hold,decrease,False,True,650.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T23:11:43.968000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Sorry to hear about that. I can definitely make you whole on this market. Hate to see anyone leave Manifold over this. I,decrease,hold,False,True,99509.5322,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-09T03:08:52.010000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?","Pushed it to the probability GPT predicts: +> I understand your request, but I must reiterate that any number or percent",flip,hold,False,True,1400.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-06T11:07:40.860000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,That being said 20% chance times 50% chance of Starship success is still 10% :),decrease,hold,False,True,7539.7047,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T18:41:36.789000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,There's so much liquidity to push through...,increase,hold,False,True,4974.0627,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-05T16:41:33.024000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","People are nervous about the resolution criteria, not about whether he actually got ChatGPT to beat Stockfish.",hold,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:30:09.751000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Agreed. And the title would have to be changed. 'by the end of June 2023' and 'at the end of June 2023' don't mean the s,decrease,flip,False,True,84.2542,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-02T15:22:41.089000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,no your grandma isn’t an example of a random person on the street she is a cherry pick. The average person on the street,hold,increase,False,True,510.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-12-27T15:02:11.240000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,"shameless nudge by virtue of ""hey, happy holidays I hope you enjoy the podcast!"" 😅",hold,hold,True,True,2390.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-18T22:14:41.957000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,NO holders have an incentive to answer incorrectly.,increase,flip,False,True,5.7367,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-07T00:05:17.254000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Precisely because it's easier to agree on a legalistic interpretation of the question than to agree on the spirit. To me,flip,flip,True,True,134.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-12-18T06:38:09.365000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"Agreed! Like if all of Twitter went down for 15 hours for ""planned maintenance"" then I would hope that would qualify as ",increase,increase,True,True,10.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T18:05:00.891000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,also lmao the “phd level” “deep research” is the same,flip,flip,True,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-03-03T09:07:18.329000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","Whether or not he did it or will release any such thing is a separate issue, but yes that is the gist of what he has bee",hold,flip,False,True,60.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-03T03:07:34.945000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,take a screenshot please. I want to know where to look. I doubt it was blocked by Microsoft.,decrease,hold,False,True,60.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T17:29:19.359000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"I don't know. Frankly, in most of these questions I'm not sure what the exact question OR right answer is, no idea how t",hold,hold,True,True,1.9511,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-15T06:27:07.920000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"oh no, this market keeps giving. apparently I forgot to clear my limit orders, my bad, that's on me as a regular user. b",hold,decrease,False,True,136.1686,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-09T15:43:16.501000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, its a small sample size, but people here are talking about going to the street and taking an N=1 sample for just 1",hold,hold,True,True,5550.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ,2024-06-10T19:01:03.157000+00:00,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,"would be best to close during discussion, honestly.",hold,decrease,False,True,188.2656,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:23:28.136000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Found the prompt. Not the chat log, though. +1. Stack of sandwiches: +> Alice has a stack of 5 ham sandwiches with no c",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T21:25:34.796000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"The standard isn't any human, it's a normal person. Normal people can count the Rs in strawberry and determine if 9.11>9",flip,increase,False,True,688.934,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T23:14:17.332000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it's not looking so hot. My last shreds of cope are that June is not much time to complete an AB test and roll it ",flip,decrease,False,True,6504.5044,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-05-31T00:15:38.471000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,We already know that o3 doesn’t ace SimpleBench. Just take the items on SimpleBench that it fails,increase,increase,True,True,1000.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T07:40:16.531000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"I would initially read it as if Elon musk becomes the richest person at any time before the resolution date, the market ",flip,hold,False,True,1701.2284,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-01T22:33:06.193000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,The markets original title is a different question and this market is a scam.,flip,flip,True,True,4305.5118,FLIP,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-03-14T20:28:52.620000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",This investment of mine is clearly going great!,hold,hold,True,True,1766.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-02-18T23:15:12.367000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",That's a good point. My understanding is that 'closes Mar 31' =/= 'resolves Mar 31'. Will this market be resolved March ,decrease,hold,False,True,89.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:35:40.193000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"There was a huge cut in leagues prizes this season, is it bullish or bearish?",hold,decrease,False,True,10.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-16T21:28:26.569000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,yeah if possible it’d be great to see the actual chat log being used to resolve here (not bc I doubt this resolution at ,hold,hold,True,True,124.8537,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-14T04:12:58.982000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","I don't think Mira wants to torch her reputation for the sake of some mana, which she has intentionally lit on fire unli",hold,hold,True,True,7031.0166,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-03T17:53:54.037000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Just to add my data point, it took about 1.5 hours from signup to approval for me. So still pretty short (but possibly g",decrease,hold,False,True,100.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:32:17.270000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Yeah, it seems like they've chosen some sort of a hybrid approach and since they'll have the AI's answer in the normal s",flip,hold,False,True,260.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-04T23:36:31.942000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"easily accessible from Google search home page. +could be a link",decrease,increase,False,True,46.529,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T22:07:39.198000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Nope. Well how much do you hold?,hold,hold,True,True,46294.4953,HOLD,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-03-12T17:58:44.519000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive th",flip,increase,False,True,110.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-11-01T13:35:20.506000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"OTOH, Steve Jobs famously once said “Dropbox is a feature, not a product”… 😄 +https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidcourse",flip,hold,False,True,50.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T11:10:41.433000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,If you want it to be. But that's not my motivation.,decrease,flip,False,True,5776.9202,FLIP,qwen3:32b +Q53GZWACqm9LxQMv0FiQ,2023-02-23T23:00:18.810000+00:00,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,"They will, since they’re now under high pressure to actually become profitable, given the huge investment made by Micros",decrease,hold,False,True,40.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-13T01:43:34.824000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I feel like I get into/see an argument over resolution criteria every day. People just need to be more careful when maki,decrease,hold,False,True,84.2542,HOLD,qwen3:32b +2eAtdKsObQdW3cxdgbR8,2024-02-17T15:15:25.625000+00:00,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?","> But you have to wonder why the odds are so high, right? + My simple theory: kenshin9000_'s AGI fantasy matches that of",increase,flip,False,True,130.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-01T00:43:04.411000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Yeah, it's an ambiguous situation. I definitely think by 2028 this resolves NO (and I placed a bet as such in that marke",increase,hold,False,True,1000.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-30T17:36:18.567000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,To bet NO on this ever happening!! I didn’t use limit orders to get out of my monster position but didn’t have to when y,increase,hold,False,True,48234.8286,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-06T21:16:43.706000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I bought a lot of yes but sold it again after re-reading the announcement. the requirement is that you can conversate wi,increase,flip,False,True,71.7834,FLIP,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-11-07T12:18:00+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"The CEO of SpaceX, aka Elon Musk, has stated repeatedly it won't be an orbital flight and SpaceX doesn't call it an orbi",hold,increase,False,True,2457.0861,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-05-24T11:00:37.838000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"If any yes bettors want to make their case, I'd be interested in understanding what people's expectations are, e.g. full",increase,increase,True,True,10899.6007,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-07-01T11:16:26.076000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,I definitely need that mana back like right now so I am extremely tempted. Why did you give me all of this resolution po,hold,flip,False,True,46294.4953,FLIP,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-02-16T04:07:50.829000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Will probably regret this but I'm going to lean a little harder into NO here because I think the issues the Bing bot's e,hold,increase,False,True,50.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +zSOn6yh5PO,2025-06-17T20:58:16.797000+00:00,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,"Re: +before we decide how to resolve, can we agree on what the right answer to this question is and prove that a majori",decrease,hold,False,True,5.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-07-03T01:34:32.360000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,you'll be amazed that the average over 30 days is linearly equal to the sum,hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +bEOGXdJjS4ld48XDMAqy,2023-09-14T01:34:53.216000+00:00,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,"What is the exact question and rules? The ""here"" link is dead now.",flip,hold,False,True,2730.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-04-07T09:04:20.552000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,Google is not going to integrate something half baked until it is ready. June is too soon.,hold,decrease,False,True,75.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-06-01T21:11:12.509000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,"I like them, but yeahhh they can get pretty hairy and distracting. If only there was more middleground between them and ",increase,decrease,False,True,60.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +aFezp4aZW2QI2CJNIV0R,2023-08-16T17:48:56.182000+00:00,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,also we're on Google Podcasts now because why not,increase,hold,False,True,183.0339,HOLD,qwen3:32b +5ssg7ccYrrsEwZLYh9tP,2023-06-04T09:58:33.287000+00:00,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,"Lol. This was complained about weeks back. I really doubt that they will do anything now, since they did nothing back th",flip,hold,False,True,1246.5204,HOLD,qwen3:32b +SVk1ZnhV2A7ZL3CEn3SB,2023-05-04T05:11:13.107000+00:00,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,Are there any other new features of 2023 so far this would compete with?,increase,hold,False,True,90.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +x2e7wqcGvSX57YCaKJ5M,2022-11-24T01:36:19.382000+00:00,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,"it’s much less likely that there will be a code change over the holidays, which leaves data center capacity problems as ",decrease,decrease,True,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ,2023-01-05T13:35:43.766000+00:00,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.,increase,hold,False,True,147.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..20cd62edbf6bf4ead71ec2bf402147f1a295f210 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.2358490566037736,0.8809878089420179,0.6451387523382444,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.5,0.9900463821488321,0.4900463821488321,UP,0.9725602145850398,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,26,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +2,0.7983404642886802,0.9906312252478179,0.19229076095913766,UP,0.946311899603838,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,15,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.9268489443054744,0.22977075475791073,-0.6970781895475636,DOWN,0.979133493192572,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,16,DOWN,qwen3:32b +4,0.6006442705186322,0.9728938314119779,0.3722495608933457,UP,0.9924937046577539,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.6282527881040892,0.9968166609375861,0.3685638728334969,UP,0.7971812413082106,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",12,DOWN,qwen3:32b +6,0.4539464347705241,0.8544380160522912,0.4004915812817671,UP,0.22886017086095695,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,20,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.48819536309170525,0.19301556313998058,-0.29517979995172466,DOWN,0.5442946745113586,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,13,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +8,0.06068142145193899,0.026827873835571468,-0.033853547616367524,DOWN,0.3328215746150149,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",17,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dd9af3793a1f1bcd675437578cb99828d42605e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/manifold/tech_other/qwen3_manifold_tech_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.5,0.9671609505158075,0.4671609505158075,UP,0.8776452488074942,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.45394643477052415,0.6950291671665185,0.24108273239599437,UP,0.47001140248243095,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,18,DOWN,qwen3:32b +2,0.3379855007983106,0.4282036763070037,0.0902181755086931,UP,0.8037503854542762,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,10,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +3,0.2358490566037736,0.8672372201646898,0.6313881635609162,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.9268489443054743,0.7318923193908937,-0.19495662491458055,DOWN,0.6712239805163744,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,19,DOWN,qwen3:32b +5,0.4881953630917052,0.26911793005998125,-0.21907743303172394,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.7983404642886802,0.5282592232133747,-0.2700812410753055,DOWN,0.2879185918366451,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.33798550079831063,0.2971457778802637,-0.04083972291804694,DOWN,0.39698746212017166,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,37,UP,qwen3:32b +8,0.6006442705186322,0.058661071664087926,-0.5419831988545443,DOWN,0.5246470316621004,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,28,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.6006442705186322,0.619907781432823,0.019263510914190762,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,2,DOWN,qwen3:32b +10,0.4539464347705242,0.7130536471985514,0.25910721242802714,UP,0.8773758430410791,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.5,0.9500000000000001,0.45000000000000007,UP,0.8867515940586294,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +12,0.6006442705186322,0.15816642731083796,-0.44247784320779426,DOWN,0.26146788990825687,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +13,0.9268489443054745,0.039808972458458415,-0.8870399718470161,DOWN,0.9858350724396719,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,35,DOWN,qwen3:32b +14,0.7983404642886803,0.5783879642594928,-0.21995250002918754,DOWN,0.860866317420511,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,6,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +15,0.2358490566037736,0.3174163009750715,0.08156724437129792,UP,0.9972732471901221,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +16,0.4539464347705242,0.7003398012013962,0.24639336643087195,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +17,0.7983404642886803,0.5950211028077338,-0.20331936148094654,DOWN,0.9313356194757361,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,9,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +18,0.2358490566037736,0.7101510958746293,0.47430203927085574,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +19,0.4539464347705242,0.693408924909925,0.2394624901394008,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +20,0.7983404642886802,0.48975374580857817,-0.30858671848010205,DOWN,0.26260146991181993,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,14,UP,qwen3:32b +21,0.6006442705186322,0.09442282402798798,-0.5062214464906443,DOWN,0.9320913290134364,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +22,0.9268489443054744,0.32670024674605375,-0.6001486975594206,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,7,DOWN,qwen3:32b +23,0.5,0.9724250325043937,0.4724250325043937,UP,0.7506568828771948,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,51,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +24,0.6282527881040891,0.3661430050647592,-0.2621097830393299,DOWN,0.11025660588590244,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",16,UP,qwen3:32b +25,0.6282527881040891,0.5242773057486284,-0.10397548235546072,DOWN,0.6427703523693803,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",3,UP,qwen3:32b +26,0.06068142145193898,0.03291384117127562,-0.02776758028066336,DOWN,0.9419872660229784,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",20,DOWN,qwen3:32b +27,0.7983404642886802,0.48603538092487686,-0.31230508336380336,DOWN,0.24655787226783052,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?,7,DOWN,qwen3:32b +28,0.4881953630917052,0.3244016797525281,-0.1637936833391771,DOWN,0.8611341322960367,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Leagues be the most impactful new feature for Manifold in 2023?,16,UP,qwen3:32b +29,0.6006442705186322,0.388339835481098,-0.2123044350375342,DOWN,0.1992711309774372,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +30,0.9268489443054744,0.21241962802467007,-0.7144293162808043,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +31,0.3379855007983106,0.551205728942923,0.2132202281446124,UP,0.887745202887213,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,17,UP,qwen3:32b +32,0.060681421451939,0.0990510535639742,0.0383696321120352,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,"Did kenshin9000 ""beat all chess engines"" with GPT-4?",10,DOWN,qwen3:32b +33,0.6282527881040891,0.4028984488984111,-0.22535433920567804,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +34,0.5,0.9359049226019854,0.43590492260198543,UP,0.8574039452025781,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Does ChatGPT o3 make egregious errors?,37,DOWN,qwen3:32b +35,0.23584905660377362,0.45520112853494904,0.21935207193117542,UP,0.9369187389302508,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will anyone create a substantive podcast show about Manifold Markets by the end of 2023?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +36,0.6282527881040891,0.44350288165000473,-0.1847499064540844,DOWN,0.9577445756744499,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",4,UP,qwen3:32b +37,0.9268489443054744,0.8190557919070798,-0.1077931523983946,DOWN,0.6470588235294118,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,40. Will SpaceX's Starship complete orbit (read desc) in 2023?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +38,0.3379855007983106,0.48381684262520713,0.14583134182689655,UP,0.6965247642177438,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?,9,UP,qwen3:32b +39,0.6282527881040891,0.4023007423973114,-0.22595204570677774,DOWN,0.45021973139882376,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,"Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?",10,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/commitment_validity_polymarket_crypto.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/commitment_validity_polymarket_crypto.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6117abb41efbd4c7ab7421d6d5c660254bbd480c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/commitment_validity_polymarket_crypto.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "polymarket/crypto", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 277, + "n_wrong_bettors": 92, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.3321, + "n_directional": 83, + "n_follows_commitment": 45, + "n_follows_truth": 38, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.5422, + "binom_p": 0.2552, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 252, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.4127, + "n": 63, + "median_position_size": 4.0, + "binom_p": 0.935, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.4603, + "n": 63, + "median_position_size": 100.0, + "binom_p": 0.775, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.4375, + "n": 64, + "median_position_size": 967.84, + "binom_p": 0.8698, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.4839, + "n": 62, + "median_position_size": 6664.55, + "binom_p": 0.6482, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": 0.0712, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.2462, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ec9d8a5f806b2dd6717b15cd052c26715c4eca77 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,301 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +512662,2024-11-11T18:04:45.901161Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Just a small correction to shake over leveraged longs... and back to 90K,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T07:17:04.052321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys remember, if someone actually publishes coin from his account, he will later claim he was hacked, so just sell duri",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:59.559189Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your no's before it's too late. I am here for the people,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T23:02:09.117757Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"down $5k in this market but up by more in a related market, GuyWhoFcks was questioning the quality of the hedged bet, i ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T19:07:51.324295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bruh he literally said he¡¯s not doing a coin,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:46:03.140919Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then go to this market and 5x ur money https://polymarket.com/event/did-kanye-sell-his-twitter-account?tid=1740278496346,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-14T15:47:33.337312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Bitcoin is still over extended. It was up 40% in a week. You really expect it to do another 40%? We are going sideways f,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T18:32:09.863188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"you make a fair point, history shows a 100% record for green shoe and 100% record for even more capital than that. I'm g",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T18:44:38.534693Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow you should sell at 40, you can get $250,000, there is no liquidity on holidays",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T22:53:16.022098Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,You mean your broker took your money today,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:30:01.971442Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice one, you bought at the right time and saw the vision",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:53:49.337623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,dont worry he's a german white troll,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T14:12:54.130546Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I have ran some calculations. Roughly $4000 to go until $100k.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:09.424122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,do something against ur autism brian,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +535289,2025-04-11T17:07:32.244771Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,is anyone elses deposit taking forever? been 1.5 hours waiting for my deposit,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T17:30:43.590448Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Aenews got clapped on both sides of the market ??,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T17:28:50.944831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,let the fun begin.see you NO holders at 80c,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:38:33.753915Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Well thanks to you I made bit of money there,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T11:39:30.750692Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes like u said brother, but i holding full if he posted chart like a Sunday JAN 19. NO will automaticly go to 99, but s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-03T02:04:10.714944Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Metamask is quoted me 170+ in eth gas. ????,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:49.482594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's on sale right now for 80c,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:09:29.458965Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"if i put $200,000 at market price i will only make $22k profit. that is stupid.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:29:17.039153Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL i sold a bit, im buying back in",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:46:12.777505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We get it you just found out God isn't real from a Reddit post and now you are posting about it everywhere. It's ok,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T15:52:24.539775Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,told you I would buy back in lower,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:56:05.970438Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hahaha he was No first, then yes, now again NO. he sold in loss every single time.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T06:58:26.767296Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Same posts before he is buying,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:42:46.131739Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im kinda sad i bought at 57 cents and then 30 seconds later kanye decided to tweet about crypto. i couldve bought at 30 ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:32.827559Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope we¡¯ve got some backup to pray,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T23:10:36.834391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Congrats for all chads who holding NO and dont care about BOW BOW lol,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:38:01.918964Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯m hearing reports a God candle imminent.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:23:48.462895Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,when will that Saudi Prince dump $2 billion into the BTC market?,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T17:27:28.288724Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","why do you guys think it wont get to $105,000 ?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:56.053059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 nga u have 46 dollars in 2 i promise you if someone bought his acc theyre not worried about a polymarket bet when they,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:54.222012Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh no 400 dollars what am i gunna do, not like i made 6.5k buying no at 30 lol",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T19:04:08.270922Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"God damn no holders you are tough. I sold part of my shares to buy back cheaper, btc shot up, no prices basically still ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T17:08:56.421149Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you think it's gonna crash?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T18:35:51.509732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"That was $600 million convertible notes. This time, it's $2 billion. They purchase large sums of BTC within seven days.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:55:18.001984Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's a gambling website what did you expect,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T16:07:36.800829Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yep he got a team working for him. All it takes is an insider to be on that team and recommend something like ¡°we shoul,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:51:11.182975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if only u listened to me the last time,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:01:48.093437Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,One more time with these assumptions and I'm pointing out you've been betting on a racist party winning the German elect,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T17:50:39.051312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im belong with you sir ^^ i bought at 30 and sold 4000 shares at 10. and buy back again at 8,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T10:36:09.690999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,his exposure would be total of 200 million dollars ??,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:29.007475Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"all or nothing for me. I bought no, at 08 cents.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T16:10:58.384027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,For one thing not every bitch has an IG or is a social media addict. Not saying if she has one or not. Even if she did I,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-15T20:20:01.816202Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",let's go let's get it 110k next step,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T03:20:29.824888Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","this is close, does it need to hold 95k for a minute?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T03:16:53.653833Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold all my coins and then bought back because i said aint no way im quitting polymarket with a negative portfolio,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-12-01T01:01:25.159085Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",HOW COME MARKET HAS NOT CLOSED,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:46.825613Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me $1, i wanna buy some no rq but got nothing",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:03.523944Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",now it starts to get intresting,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:33:56.462135Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",See you all tomorrow. Aint envying the 95k noers,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:17:38.653342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought more at 15c like a chad broski,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:25:39.896902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I swear it was like 10 bucks away,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:12:45.773109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"car with the psyop as usual, thats more certain to happen than the sun to rise let alone saylor to buy",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T17:51:07.020798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I withdraw when I have taken $135,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T19:37:23.539481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I really wanna see how mstr will do this week,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:08:13.382482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes please dont sell, buy more NO and fill my $40,000 order.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:32.991762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's over, all no holders sold. I sold jk",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-21T12:05:42.070541Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Everyone was hoping for over 10k.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T16:19:49.461417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"if NO holders were insiders, why are they not buying cheap NO? when they were ready to buy at 50c. wake up, only insider",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T23:03:58.694187Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He has -$2,663.32. Fucking degenerate",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:33.951304Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5% yes now???? Insiders are going to launch a few minutes before time ends. I knew it.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:07.056027Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hold the line! We hit $99.5K a few days ago, but we¡¯re still holding strong. There¡¯s strong resistance at $99.5K. it w",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:11:46.488745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. It",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T22:50:52.085976Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",the rise is definitely pointing towards some correlation to trump being elected,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:34:35.842507Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I know, that's why I relate to you and feel concerned for anger both ways.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:21:58.354094Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I mostly diamond handed, but I sold a bit too much at 33cish",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T17:29:56.131055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024 ? I buyed no. Will Bitcoin hit $100k in Nov ? I buyed yes.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:35:53.530736Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its not about the money but rather the thought process behind it. You naively sold your no position and changed it to ye,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T21:06:32.331499Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",@Pedro999 broke af betting against the market RETARD,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T19:21:33.189303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if i was doing that would i have bought YES at 45c? make it make sense,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T21:05:06.708766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Not only that I went to the TOP ""Yes"" and he lost the same bet July 1-7",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T13:53:32.053481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Cooked how? ""Old Wise Man""? He bought 15k shares at 1c and 3c and sold them at 80c.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-24T22:10:07.951052Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Hey man, all I'm saying is, you should take your $8k while you can cause I think with how crypto is performing this is g",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-07T20:41:53.018761Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Polymarket has pulled me back in again, here goes 24 nights of watching the charts",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T04:49:22.101255Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Lol guys haven¡¯t you see just difference between chance % and price? They got like $0.01 on each side. 16% for yes and ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T04:25:11.776544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I mean the only reason to buy YES right now is to dump on someone for pennies more than you paid. I'm not bag holding t,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:36:38.191723Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah, he seemed less angry last week. Like things were looking up a bit.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:07:13.246709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,you should've had stayed in no side Bro,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:20.000707Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If you are thinking it will hit 100k today, buy at MUCH better odds at https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:13:15.225712Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I wasn't tryna be toxic bruh im literally on the same bets.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T03:54:11.745845Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"my prediction: 10 ema will now cross 20 ema(4h chart), then upmove can continue and soon 100k. all these loudmouth no sa",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T19:27:26.736594Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Almost there, less than $500 to go.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T06:31:17.553602Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Wow, could've 10x if you bought No",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:11:59.526404Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You absolute menace, enjoy those $30,064.75!!! Props to you. PROPS TO ALL NO HOLDERS, we all got fucking scared today, a",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:34:16.999852Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait a minute, it's 3:30 PM In LA right now, it's not even dark",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T20:46:20.237975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can't wait for the UMA disputes when some coin is launched by the scammers using ye's account .... popcorn ready,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-25T01:33:53.055727Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",i remember when bitcoins costed like couple of bucks,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T15:23:57.684694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"gg to the diamond hands, i sold the top. max pain",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:22.991805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,arbitraging and selling put options and farming premium,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T04:07:30.051947Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",i keep getting cooked im betting on these walls holding and bitcoin acts like they dont exist,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:38:25.662008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this will be the biggest rekt of month,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-18T18:16:39.272121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Dang if i knew tips was such a paperhand I would've put up lower limit orders,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:42.387292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T13:00:17.141408Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol my theory was correct. the whole idea that he only post on holiday was filmsy. his team was just chilling out on jan,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T13:53:15.484146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wall order is of ERASMAS, he started buying.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:50.656902Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:02.877735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews i'm starting to get worried about you. you've lost your magic touch. you used to be so so good at this but these ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T13:46:20.920417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,insiders + HODL = a clear NO. don't know why the price is not 90c already for NO.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-24T01:37:47.913471Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,At the time of my last reply it was 55 dollars *,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:05:16.393716Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"how about 47c for $200,000 USDC?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T14:14:01.906118Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,because the news site itself is pure shit worth nothing,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-30T05:00:46.155512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"u didn't lose it. check ur wallet, it must be there",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T06:49:18.432713Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"unfortunately, I lost it everything ((( please ,who can tip me",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:45.307353Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,omfgawd i can post comments again,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T23:33:26.710856Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,he bought today but when will he announce,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-13T12:23:51.256632Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",is this here working like a future/options trade would at a cex?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:04:05.284574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf are you talking about 5 minute new daily candle? Please explain. It reached a high point of $98.6K in the past 24 ho,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:04:50.613529Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we no holders crowdfund and send some funny smelling bitches to Kanye's villa right now?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:10:22.798881Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","sure they do,losers wanna lose",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:42:24.748817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is a Nazi scum pu55y-ass bitch nigga.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:40:25.270776Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"surely gimmi a $1 or too to buy some more yes, it easy money but i only got 1.6",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:21:49.315582Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I AM BUYING ANOTHER 80,000 YES SHARES AT $0.39. FILL ME GUYS. I am not gonna increase my price.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T06:30:46.251958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you can ask Chatgpt this quuestion ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? answer Yes or No"" chatgpt will answer no, if yo",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T12:17:40.232981Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,How do you know if someone is an insider?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T19:26:54.086372Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sniffingground is insider he go all in NO,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-18T15:26:23.612796Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That would make me bullish on ""YES"" here https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1744989954875",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:08:40.690399Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU COULD HAVE AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SHE WOULD STILL BE WORTH MORE,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-15T17:43:00.681642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,take pls credit from bank pls to play big atleast,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:07:51.142016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nah Kamala IQ is like 140. Trump 120, he's a smart boy but no match for Queen Kambullah Whorris. No disagreement with Ka",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:54:02.573805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is a market lasting more than a month. Why do you think that something will change in 4 days?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-24T20:24:38.982112Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I agree. I hold BTC but bought No as a hedge,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T03:37:50.079373Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I told myself I wouldn't do this market again.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-01-31T22:13:41.843505Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",its not over YET! btc mega candle inc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T08:21:46.549681Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Damn bro sorry to hear that, I'm sure you will recover all the losses soon, best of luck.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T04:23:26.240198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I put mine at 43c but unfortunately I bought at 61c. Not getting out of this unscathed,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T19:09:40.762336Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bitcoin has never put +40% monthly candle since 2017. this time is not different,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T03:33:01.492761Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,They have a couple hundred M$ in cash and Saylor already posted his chart on X. The text in the tweet doesnt hint at hod,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-26T16:55:57.180219Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Are you will losing more 63 k bro,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +548985,2025-06-09T11:19:06.650441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He¡¯s supposed to get his $980M on Tuesday why would he buy on Monday. I hope that this logic works out,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-23T22:07:27.045582Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","bitcoin will reach all time high tomorrow, thank me later ??",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:35:31.440425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SUDDENLY HAVE A STRONG STRONG FEELING THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE TWEETS FROM KANYE. THEN YOU'LL HEAR NEWS REPORTS HE OD O,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T21:47:52.356781Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Monday Apr 29, 2024 tweet, the Monday before May earnings release: ""Michael Saylor @saylor Apr 29, 2024 In April, @Micr",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T17:51:19.045341Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I assume the completion post will come after market ends within like 5 minutes, isn't that how it normally goes?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:10:39.363421Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Is @bugoutmode an insider? He bought $1,016 worth of 'Yes' 10 minutes ago. His account was created June 2023. This is hi",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:55:13.206997Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Didn¡¯t you see the way mstr was in minus ?? It was him selling his mstr shares heavily to buy big number of BTC,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T19:37:48.289686Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",someone lend me $50k so I can buy No $95k,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-23T20:52:26.884922Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,there has only been two time that this exact thing happen. Every other holiday he didn't post graph on Sunday so we all ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:09.328681Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T14:23:55.987398Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Saylor is a scammer, we all know it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T11:21:17.465586Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We might be looking at a dump down to $60k here,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T14:31:01.840185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",finally it was good value to buy yes near 90k,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:01:55.306928Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","I buy at 7 cent, how big ball i have",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T11:37:15.941314Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Why did you decide to sell your no just curious,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T16:22:43.422868Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what people dont realize is that its the YES voters that are the ones who have to sweat. they have to continuously break,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T15:03:08.122172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,imma choose to believe the londoninsider website. Gl everyone else,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:22:03.434262Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have never seen a Car hater with a positive PNL,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T13:11:37.380075Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k and muh precious and famous bowbow will be rich rich RICH,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T18:14:23.757671Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",looks like a casual drop to pump even higher to me i recommend you selling,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:17.050327Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I will give you cleo3 pics if you tip me and send disc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T12:43:48.732805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Btc will be at 97000 at the end of november folks,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T13:32:59.487602Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I think there's a reason for the huge liquidity,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T08:20:14.541373Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:15:38.780569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just found another article on CoinPedia posted by an Indian guy... He was paid $1,500 to post a press release saying t",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:59:40.821192Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Exactly 7 Days ago, Kanye started tweeting about the Coin in the Evening around this time, we shall see",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:34:58.339618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We've gone from the manic phase to the depression phase, it seems.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:21.046319Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T16:54:16.240033Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whales are going to dispute and win. Nice cash day for Y.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:35:31.854994Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought his account and i'm gonna fake a coin launch. Why is Yes so low?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:46:41.599224Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I lost $4 on this market, very sad but now Im outta here. Enjoy refreshing twitter guys!",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:03:37.174707Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","so glad i bought more at 94.9k, easiest 2x ever",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:15:03.009529Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,kimchi what are you doing? buying at 99 selling at 93?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T13:58:07.481466Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro, I really hope you won't lose your main $100k in 2024 bet",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T02:19:16.741144Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whates getting scammed on the way up and then on the way down,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:32:16.716588Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Would risking a loss of another $300-400 matter to you in order to potentially gain $10,000? Only you can answer that.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:50.834871Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If muh precious bullishonsol lawst a brand new BMW M5 series then what the f did Zyn lose?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T21:55:18.453303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,pat please get yourself together you can't get mad at me for calling you misinformed and not broke due to luck a day or ,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-29T03:45:54.090528Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","BTC only reach 110K if fed reduce rate , otherwise flash crash is most probally hedge",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T17:34:16.756449Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bro should not make finincial desicions,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T11:12:56.906445Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is there a 20,000 shares limit order for selling yes for 50 cents?? That¡¯s pretty scary",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T08:54:38.168642Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,No holders come up with all kinds of reasoning just to avoid saving themselves the last 5 bucks. Absolutely wild reading,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:13.659963Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would have never said so... nigga,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T12:58:26.348157Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"To build on this point, it¡¯s also important to note that in all previous Strategy BTC purchases, Michael Saylor or the ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T05:54:10.851462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm still here too, look at my profile history. I bought in days ago",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T11:18:45.923148Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We may have lost this battle, but we haven't lost the war yet.)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T10:10:18.847929Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait bowbow was actually talking in chat?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:59:59.124295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you degens in the march 7 market,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T09:23:09.882902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Tick tock, on the clock, but the party don't stop, no oh whoa whoa oh, oh whoa whoa oh",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:28:40.652673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what is the theory for his website being on the monday? Is this not just based on the ZY in yeezy looking like 24? I've ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:16:31.550901Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at priceaction it might actually happen, such a crazy day",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T20:32:50.206495Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I took a 4000$ loss on polymarket yesterday i went almost all in on this trade to make back my losses hopefully it goes ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-20T17:59:24.697558Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","If it's going to hit $110k, just do it right now, please take me out of my misery. Grape me and get it over now. Stop te",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T12:13:07.240118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡° IM TOO RICH TO DO ANYTHING ELSE COINS PREY ON THE FANS WITH HYPE¡± he¡¯s aware he¡¯d be scamming his fans lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T14:48:30.756918Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k is not a problem. 100k will be harder but the narrative of hitting 100k must be reached for a good storyline and lur,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T22:30:13.194074Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i've been browsing his page for over 3 hours now lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-14T14:50:03.942053Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","It was a rough day for me yesterday, doc. And it isn't a career, more like an addiction",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T13:36:44.106881Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So glad to see Fujin turn around bratha,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:12:32.841908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Would you use the $200,000 to buy a new home?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T06:10:34.678214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is Kanye you're talking about.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:02:46.406044Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",why are you against your own bets lol,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T14:56:49.829726Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow just bought into november 29th market. Yes is at such good odds it will 5x in a matter of minutes,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T23:37:36.768973Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow no matter if u win or loose.. Gotta give to u for those Titan sized balls..,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:27.778352Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a $1 so i can buy a few more, this is easy money rn",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T03:44:11.194277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,buddy you've got like a 100 dollar stake,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:54:36.409332Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We're pricing in no tweets, If he tweets because he's Kanye then they can just market buy and eager Nos will capitulate",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:36:15.366714Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-03T12:52:47.879679Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,you might win this win time but on the long the guy is buying everything i have bought the no in the past and i have los,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T04:12:11.132889Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me, i'll take my chances. yes it was supposed to launched earlier only, and getting delayed. but still a real good chanc",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T21:36:33.168468Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold yes, i lost money, but now im in the win side",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-04T04:44:15.238727Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Degen is crazy put 100 k on insiders market,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-03T11:01:52.074587Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Although I bought it, I think there are many insiders on the other side. There are also many people who only registered ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T13:38:41.281198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont let the ye'haters win! keep buying the yes!,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T05:30:23.138553Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ya, i decided to keep quiet. why to take unnecessory critisim and abuses",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:30:40.767214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$15,136,263 Vol. So proud of this community",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T15:33:26.021002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i have insider knowledge, he will be launching his coin within a week.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:11:42.698654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""@cleo3 can i sleep with you too please"" - desperate schizokanye",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T06:18:16.771286Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If dalailama and nunchak are indeed insiders, they will get reported to SEC if they win this lol, too much risk for them",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T21:37:25.393527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""I don't need your pus*y b*tch; I'm on my own d*ck."" - Kanye West",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T15:52:40.667209Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Says the guy with minus $1200 profit ??,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T09:17:47.610764Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks BowBow for holding the yes holders % up,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:32:56.378983Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,finally something we can agree on,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T20:44:19.092037Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, quite a good buying opporunity of NO shares as well",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T15:27:02.622578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,like nobody knows that Kanye is Ye,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T13:49:55.327097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We should we thankful that we have the opportunity to buy 1 dollar for 24 cents,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-08T06:42:26.916058Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","What happened, down so much in one day?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:09:00.853102Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine Kanye just drops the ticker with 5 minutes left,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T20:44:02.110895Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"First thing i saw, wanted something different than default colors",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T13:14:30.194414Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,saylor is worth 10 bil dorsnt care about insiders ¡­,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T11:00:48.607521Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,$41.41 is what you need to break 6c,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T00:04:54.500897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise n",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T09:10:29.252697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes true, when I bought some large chunks it was cheap around 28c for sure. Now it¡¯s not cheap anymore for the risk one",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:45:01.790892Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You are actually just chilling,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:34:59.795501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"At the time of this writing, according to the share button, BowBow will win $1,999,999.91, not $2 million.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:27:46.482499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You guys are celebrating but most volatility occurs before markets close right,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:10:27.927568Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this makes me more confident in NO,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:43.662269Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He won't break the weekly steak,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-24T12:56:53.970009Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I sold for cheap but I fine with that should have sold yesterday for 98c,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T12:26:37.710472Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I'll also be digging around LondonInsider for a bit--I suspect they've been retroactively changing their reports.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dac9be9be11c67c785606683609d854984c01022 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,301 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +512662,2024-11-11T18:04:45.901161Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Just a small correction to shake over leveraged longs... and back to 90K,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T07:17:04.052321Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys remember, if someone actually publishes coin from his account, he will later claim he was hacked, so just sell duri",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:59.559189Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your no's before it's too late. I am here for the people,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T23:02:09.117757Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"down $5k in this market but up by more in a related market, GuyWhoFcks was questioning the quality of the hedged bet, i ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T19:07:51.324295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bruh he literally said he¡¯s not doing a coin,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:46:03.140919Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then go to this market and 5x ur money https://polymarket.com/event/did-kanye-sell-his-twitter-account?tid=1740278496346,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-14T15:47:33.337312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Bitcoin is still over extended. It was up 40% in a week. You really expect it to do another 40%? We are going sideways f,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T18:32:09.863188Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"you make a fair point, history shows a 100% record for green shoe and 100% record for even more capital than that. I'm g",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T18:44:38.534693Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow you should sell at 40, you can get $250,000, there is no liquidity on holidays",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T22:53:16.022098Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,You mean your broker took your money today,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:30:01.971442Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice one, you bought at the right time and saw the vision",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:53:49.337623Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,dont worry he's a german white troll,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T14:12:54.130546Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I have ran some calculations. Roughly $4000 to go until $100k.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:09.424122Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,do something against ur autism brian,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +535289,2025-04-11T17:07:32.244771Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,is anyone elses deposit taking forever? been 1.5 hours waiting for my deposit,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T17:30:43.590448Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Aenews got clapped on both sides of the market ??,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T17:28:50.944831Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,let the fun begin.see you NO holders at 80c,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:38:33.753915Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Well thanks to you I made bit of money there,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T11:39:30.750692Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes like u said brother, but i holding full if he posted chart like a Sunday JAN 19. NO will automaticly go to 99, but s",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-03T02:04:10.714944Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Metamask is quoted me 170+ in eth gas. ????,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:49.482594Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's on sale right now for 80c,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:09:29.458965Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"if i put $200,000 at market price i will only make $22k profit. that is stupid.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:29:17.039153Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL i sold a bit, im buying back in",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:46:12.777505Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We get it you just found out God isn't real from a Reddit post and now you are posting about it everywhere. It's ok,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T15:52:24.539775Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,told you I would buy back in lower,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:56:05.970438Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hahaha he was No first, then yes, now again NO. he sold in loss every single time.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T06:58:26.767296Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Same posts before he is buying,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:42:46.131739Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im kinda sad i bought at 57 cents and then 30 seconds later kanye decided to tweet about crypto. i couldve bought at 30 ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:32.827559Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope we¡¯ve got some backup to pray,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T23:10:36.834391Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Congrats for all chads who holding NO and dont care about BOW BOW lol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:38:01.918964Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯m hearing reports a God candle imminent.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:23:48.462895Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,when will that Saudi Prince dump $2 billion into the BTC market?,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T17:27:28.288724Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","why do you guys think it wont get to $105,000 ?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:56.053059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 nga u have 46 dollars in 2 i promise you if someone bought his acc theyre not worried about a polymarket bet when they,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:54.222012Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh no 400 dollars what am i gunna do, not like i made 6.5k buying no at 30 lol",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T19:04:08.270922Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"God damn no holders you are tough. I sold part of my shares to buy back cheaper, btc shot up, no prices basically still ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T17:08:56.421149Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you think it's gonna crash?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T18:35:51.509732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"That was $600 million convertible notes. This time, it's $2 billion. They purchase large sums of BTC within seven days.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:55:18.001984Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's a gambling website what did you expect,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T16:07:36.800829Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yep he got a team working for him. All it takes is an insider to be on that team and recommend something like ¡°we shoul,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:51:11.182975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if only u listened to me the last time,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:01:48.093437Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,One more time with these assumptions and I'm pointing out you've been betting on a racist party winning the German elect,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T17:50:39.051312Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im belong with you sir ^^ i bought at 30 and sold 4000 shares at 10. and buy back again at 8,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T10:36:09.690999Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,his exposure would be total of 200 million dollars ??,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:29.007475Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"all or nothing for me. I bought no, at 08 cents.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T16:10:58.384027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,For one thing not every bitch has an IG or is a social media addict. Not saying if she has one or not. Even if she did I,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-15T20:20:01.816202Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",let's go let's get it 110k next step,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T03:20:29.824888Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","this is close, does it need to hold 95k for a minute?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T03:16:53.653833Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold all my coins and then bought back because i said aint no way im quitting polymarket with a negative portfolio,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-12-01T01:01:25.159085Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",HOW COME MARKET HAS NOT CLOSED,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:46.825613Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me $1, i wanna buy some no rq but got nothing",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:03.523944Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",now it starts to get intresting,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:33:56.462135Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",See you all tomorrow. Aint envying the 95k noers,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:17:38.653342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought more at 15c like a chad broski,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:25:39.896902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I swear it was like 10 bucks away,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:12:45.773109Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"car with the psyop as usual, thats more certain to happen than the sun to rise let alone saylor to buy",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T17:51:07.020798Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I withdraw when I have taken $135,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T19:37:23.539481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I really wanna see how mstr will do this week,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:08:13.382482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes please dont sell, buy more NO and fill my $40,000 order.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:32.991762Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's over, all no holders sold. I sold jk",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-21T12:05:42.070541Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Everyone was hoping for over 10k.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T16:19:49.461417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"if NO holders were insiders, why are they not buying cheap NO? when they were ready to buy at 50c. wake up, only insider",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T23:03:58.694187Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He has -$2,663.32. Fucking degenerate",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:33.951304Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5% yes now???? Insiders are going to launch a few minutes before time ends. I knew it.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:07.056027Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hold the line! We hit $99.5K a few days ago, but we¡¯re still holding strong. There¡¯s strong resistance at $99.5K. it w",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:11:46.488745Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. It",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T22:50:52.085976Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",the rise is definitely pointing towards some correlation to trump being elected,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:34:35.842507Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I know, that's why I relate to you and feel concerned for anger both ways.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:21:58.354094Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I mostly diamond handed, but I sold a bit too much at 33cish",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T17:29:56.131055Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024 ? I buyed no. Will Bitcoin hit $100k in Nov ? I buyed yes.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:35:53.530736Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its not about the money but rather the thought process behind it. You naively sold your no position and changed it to ye,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T21:06:32.331499Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",@Pedro999 broke af betting against the market RETARD,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T19:21:33.189303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if i was doing that would i have bought YES at 45c? make it make sense,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T21:05:06.708766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Not only that I went to the TOP ""Yes"" and he lost the same bet July 1-7",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T13:53:32.053481Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Cooked how? ""Old Wise Man""? He bought 15k shares at 1c and 3c and sold them at 80c.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-24T22:10:07.951052Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Hey man, all I'm saying is, you should take your $8k while you can cause I think with how crypto is performing this is g",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-07T20:41:53.018761Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Polymarket has pulled me back in again, here goes 24 nights of watching the charts",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T04:49:22.101255Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Lol guys haven¡¯t you see just difference between chance % and price? They got like $0.01 on each side. 16% for yes and ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T04:25:11.776544Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I mean the only reason to buy YES right now is to dump on someone for pennies more than you paid. I'm not bag holding t,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:36:38.191723Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah, he seemed less angry last week. Like things were looking up a bit.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:07:13.246709Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,you should've had stayed in no side Bro,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:20.000707Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If you are thinking it will hit 100k today, buy at MUCH better odds at https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:13:15.225712Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I wasn't tryna be toxic bruh im literally on the same bets.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T03:54:11.745845Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"my prediction: 10 ema will now cross 20 ema(4h chart), then upmove can continue and soon 100k. all these loudmouth no sa",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T19:27:26.736594Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Almost there, less than $500 to go.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T06:31:17.553602Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Wow, could've 10x if you bought No",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:11:59.526404Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You absolute menace, enjoy those $30,064.75!!! Props to you. PROPS TO ALL NO HOLDERS, we all got fucking scared today, a",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:34:16.999852Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait a minute, it's 3:30 PM In LA right now, it's not even dark",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T20:46:20.237975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can't wait for the UMA disputes when some coin is launched by the scammers using ye's account .... popcorn ready,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-25T01:33:53.055727Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",i remember when bitcoins costed like couple of bucks,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T15:23:57.684694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"gg to the diamond hands, i sold the top. max pain",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:22.991805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,arbitraging and selling put options and farming premium,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T04:07:30.051947Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",i keep getting cooked im betting on these walls holding and bitcoin acts like they dont exist,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:38:25.662008Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this will be the biggest rekt of month,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-18T18:16:39.272121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Dang if i knew tips was such a paperhand I would've put up lower limit orders,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:42.387292Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T13:00:17.141408Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol my theory was correct. the whole idea that he only post on holiday was filmsy. his team was just chilling out on jan,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T13:53:15.484146Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wall order is of ERASMAS, he started buying.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:50.656902Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:02.877735Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews i'm starting to get worried about you. you've lost your magic touch. you used to be so so good at this but these ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T13:46:20.920417Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,insiders + HODL = a clear NO. don't know why the price is not 90c already for NO.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-24T01:37:47.913471Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,At the time of my last reply it was 55 dollars *,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:05:16.393716Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"how about 47c for $200,000 USDC?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T14:14:01.906118Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,because the news site itself is pure shit worth nothing,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-30T05:00:46.155512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"u didn't lose it. check ur wallet, it must be there",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T06:49:18.432713Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"unfortunately, I lost it everything ((( please ,who can tip me",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:45.307353Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,omfgawd i can post comments again,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T23:33:26.710856Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,he bought today but when will he announce,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-13T12:23:51.256632Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",is this here working like a future/options trade would at a cex?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:04:05.284574Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf are you talking about 5 minute new daily candle? Please explain. It reached a high point of $98.6K in the past 24 ho,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:04:50.613529Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we no holders crowdfund and send some funny smelling bitches to Kanye's villa right now?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:10:22.798881Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","sure they do,losers wanna lose",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:42:24.748817Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is a Nazi scum pu55y-ass bitch nigga.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:40:25.270776Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"surely gimmi a $1 or too to buy some more yes, it easy money but i only got 1.6",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:21:49.315582Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I AM BUYING ANOTHER 80,000 YES SHARES AT $0.39. FILL ME GUYS. I am not gonna increase my price.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T06:30:46.251958Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you can ask Chatgpt this quuestion ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? answer Yes or No"" chatgpt will answer no, if yo",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T12:17:40.232981Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,How do you know if someone is an insider?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T19:26:54.086372Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sniffingground is insider he go all in NO,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-18T15:26:23.612796Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That would make me bullish on ""YES"" here https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1744989954875",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:08:40.690399Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU COULD HAVE AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SHE WOULD STILL BE WORTH MORE,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-15T17:43:00.681642Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,take pls credit from bank pls to play big atleast,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:07:51.142016Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nah Kamala IQ is like 140. Trump 120, he's a smart boy but no match for Queen Kambullah Whorris. No disagreement with Ka",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:54:02.573805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is a market lasting more than a month. Why do you think that something will change in 4 days?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-24T20:24:38.982112Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I agree. I hold BTC but bought No as a hedge,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T03:37:50.079373Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I told myself I wouldn't do this market again.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-01-31T22:13:41.843505Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",its not over YET! btc mega candle inc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T08:21:46.549681Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Damn bro sorry to hear that, I'm sure you will recover all the losses soon, best of luck.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T04:23:26.240198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I put mine at 43c but unfortunately I bought at 61c. Not getting out of this unscathed,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T19:09:40.762336Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bitcoin has never put +40% monthly candle since 2017. this time is not different,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T03:33:01.492761Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,They have a couple hundred M$ in cash and Saylor already posted his chart on X. The text in the tweet doesnt hint at hod,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-26T16:55:57.180219Z,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Are you will losing more 63 k bro,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +548985,2025-06-09T11:19:06.650441Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He¡¯s supposed to get his $980M on Tuesday why would he buy on Monday. I hope that this logic works out,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-23T22:07:27.045582Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","bitcoin will reach all time high tomorrow, thank me later ??",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:35:31.440425Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SUDDENLY HAVE A STRONG STRONG FEELING THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE TWEETS FROM KANYE. THEN YOU'LL HEAR NEWS REPORTS HE OD O,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T21:47:52.356781Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Monday Apr 29, 2024 tweet, the Monday before May earnings release: ""Michael Saylor @saylor Apr 29, 2024 In April, @Micr",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T17:51:19.045341Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I assume the completion post will come after market ends within like 5 minutes, isn't that how it normally goes?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:10:39.363421Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Is @bugoutmode an insider? He bought $1,016 worth of 'Yes' 10 minutes ago. His account was created June 2023. This is hi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:55:13.206997Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Didn¡¯t you see the way mstr was in minus ?? It was him selling his mstr shares heavily to buy big number of BTC,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T19:37:48.289686Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",someone lend me $50k so I can buy No $95k,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-23T20:52:26.884922Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,there has only been two time that this exact thing happen. Every other holiday he didn't post graph on Sunday so we all ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:09.328681Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T14:23:55.987398Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Saylor is a scammer, we all know it",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T11:21:17.465586Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We might be looking at a dump down to $60k here,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T14:31:01.840185Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",finally it was good value to buy yes near 90k,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:01:55.306928Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","I buy at 7 cent, how big ball i have",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T11:37:15.941314Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Why did you decide to sell your no just curious,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T16:22:43.422868Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what people dont realize is that its the YES voters that are the ones who have to sweat. they have to continuously break,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T15:03:08.122172Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,imma choose to believe the londoninsider website. Gl everyone else,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:22:03.434262Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have never seen a Car hater with a positive PNL,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T13:11:37.380075Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k and muh precious and famous bowbow will be rich rich RICH,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T18:14:23.757671Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",looks like a casual drop to pump even higher to me i recommend you selling,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:17.050327Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I will give you cleo3 pics if you tip me and send disc,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T12:43:48.732805Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Btc will be at 97000 at the end of november folks,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T13:32:59.487602Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I think there's a reason for the huge liquidity,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T08:20:14.541373Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:15:38.780569Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just found another article on CoinPedia posted by an Indian guy... He was paid $1,500 to post a press release saying t",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:59:40.821192Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Exactly 7 Days ago, Kanye started tweeting about the Coin in the Evening around this time, we shall see",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:34:58.339618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We've gone from the manic phase to the depression phase, it seems.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:21.046319Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T16:54:16.240033Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whales are going to dispute and win. Nice cash day for Y.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:35:31.854994Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought his account and i'm gonna fake a coin launch. Why is Yes so low?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:46:41.599224Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I lost $4 on this market, very sad but now Im outta here. Enjoy refreshing twitter guys!",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:03:37.174707Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","so glad i bought more at 94.9k, easiest 2x ever",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:15:03.009529Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,kimchi what are you doing? buying at 99 selling at 93?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T13:58:07.481466Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro, I really hope you won't lose your main $100k in 2024 bet",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T02:19:16.741144Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whates getting scammed on the way up and then on the way down,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:32:16.716588Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Would risking a loss of another $300-400 matter to you in order to potentially gain $10,000? Only you can answer that.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:50.834871Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If muh precious bullishonsol lawst a brand new BMW M5 series then what the f did Zyn lose?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T21:55:18.453303Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,pat please get yourself together you can't get mad at me for calling you misinformed and not broke due to luck a day or ,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-29T03:45:54.090528Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","BTC only reach 110K if fed reduce rate , otherwise flash crash is most probally hedge",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T17:34:16.756449Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bro should not make finincial desicions,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T11:12:56.906445Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is there a 20,000 shares limit order for selling yes for 50 cents?? That¡¯s pretty scary",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T08:54:38.168642Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,No holders come up with all kinds of reasoning just to avoid saving themselves the last 5 bucks. Absolutely wild reading,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:13.659963Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would have never said so... nigga,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T12:58:26.348157Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"To build on this point, it¡¯s also important to note that in all previous Strategy BTC purchases, Michael Saylor or the ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T05:54:10.851462Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm still here too, look at my profile history. I bought in days ago",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T11:18:45.923148Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We may have lost this battle, but we haven't lost the war yet.)",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T10:10:18.847929Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait bowbow was actually talking in chat?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:59:59.124295Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you degens in the march 7 market,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T09:23:09.882902Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Tick tock, on the clock, but the party don't stop, no oh whoa whoa oh, oh whoa whoa oh",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:28:40.652673Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what is the theory for his website being on the monday? Is this not just based on the ZY in yeezy looking like 24? I've ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:16:31.550901Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at priceaction it might actually happen, such a crazy day",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T20:32:50.206495Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I took a 4000$ loss on polymarket yesterday i went almost all in on this trade to make back my losses hopefully it goes ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-20T17:59:24.697558Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","If it's going to hit $110k, just do it right now, please take me out of my misery. Grape me and get it over now. Stop te",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T12:13:07.240118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡° IM TOO RICH TO DO ANYTHING ELSE COINS PREY ON THE FANS WITH HYPE¡± he¡¯s aware he¡¯d be scamming his fans lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T14:48:30.756918Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k is not a problem. 100k will be harder but the narrative of hitting 100k must be reached for a good storyline and lur,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T22:30:13.194074Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i've been browsing his page for over 3 hours now lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-14T14:50:03.942053Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","It was a rough day for me yesterday, doc. And it isn't a career, more like an addiction",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T13:36:44.106881Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So glad to see Fujin turn around bratha,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:12:32.841908Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Would you use the $200,000 to buy a new home?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T06:10:34.678214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is Kanye you're talking about.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:02:46.406044Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",why are you against your own bets lol,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T14:56:49.829726Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow just bought into november 29th market. Yes is at such good odds it will 5x in a matter of minutes,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T23:37:36.768973Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow no matter if u win or loose.. Gotta give to u for those Titan sized balls..,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:27.778352Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a $1 so i can buy a few more, this is easy money rn",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T03:44:11.194277Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,buddy you've got like a 100 dollar stake,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:54:36.409332Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We're pricing in no tweets, If he tweets because he's Kanye then they can just market buy and eager Nos will capitulate",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:36:15.366714Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-03T12:52:47.879679Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,you might win this win time but on the long the guy is buying everything i have bought the no in the past and i have los,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T04:12:11.132889Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me, i'll take my chances. yes it was supposed to launched earlier only, and getting delayed. but still a real good chanc",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T21:36:33.168468Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold yes, i lost money, but now im in the win side",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-04T04:44:15.238727Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Degen is crazy put 100 k on insiders market,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-03T11:01:52.074587Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Although I bought it, I think there are many insiders on the other side. There are also many people who only registered ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T13:38:41.281198Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont let the ye'haters win! keep buying the yes!,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T05:30:23.138553Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ya, i decided to keep quiet. why to take unnecessory critisim and abuses",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:30:40.767214Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$15,136,263 Vol. So proud of this community",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T15:33:26.021002Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i have insider knowledge, he will be launching his coin within a week.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:11:42.698654Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""@cleo3 can i sleep with you too please"" - desperate schizokanye",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T06:18:16.771286Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If dalailama and nunchak are indeed insiders, they will get reported to SEC if they win this lol, too much risk for them",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T21:37:25.393527Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""I don't need your pus*y b*tch; I'm on my own d*ck."" - Kanye West",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T15:52:40.667209Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Says the guy with minus $1200 profit ??,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T09:17:47.610764Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks BowBow for holding the yes holders % up,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:32:56.378983Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,finally something we can agree on,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T20:44:19.092037Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, quite a good buying opporunity of NO shares as well",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T15:27:02.622578Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,like nobody knows that Kanye is Ye,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T13:49:55.327097Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We should we thankful that we have the opportunity to buy 1 dollar for 24 cents,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-08T06:42:26.916058Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","What happened, down so much in one day?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:09:00.853102Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine Kanye just drops the ticker with 5 minutes left,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T20:44:02.110895Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"First thing i saw, wanted something different than default colors",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T13:14:30.194414Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,saylor is worth 10 bil dorsnt care about insiders ¡­,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T11:00:48.607521Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,$41.41 is what you need to break 6c,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T00:04:54.500897Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise n",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T09:10:29.252697Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes true, when I bought some large chunks it was cheap around 28c for sure. Now it¡¯s not cheap anymore for the risk one",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:45:01.790892Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You are actually just chilling,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:34:59.795501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"At the time of this writing, according to the share button, BowBow will win $1,999,999.91, not $2 million.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:27:46.482499Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You guys are celebrating but most volatility occurs before markets close right,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:10:27.927568Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this makes me more confident in NO,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:43.662269Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He won't break the weekly steak,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-24T12:56:53.970009Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I sold for cheap but I fine with that should have sold yesterday for 98c,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T12:26:37.710472Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I'll also be digging around LondonInsider for a bit--I suspect they've been retroactively changing their reports.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cf62be6e9c53e432e2bb2d43da10bb5c4361e9f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,578 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T04:01:42.384676Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"-$1,824.40, you're white and you're mad that the white birth rate is declining",NO,NO,True,True,500.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T07:17:04.052321Z,0x05fee6c5c6960689d5d4a1777012d62c64941bc0,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Guys remember, if someone actually publishes coin from his account, he will later claim he was hacked, so just sell duri",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T18:26:35.993042Z,0x17cb4294ab0e6d81dd9a7d37a331d6c4f50ece04,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",just set an alert for when price reaches that point then you manually exit,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:32.665946Z,0x74c92f2e0e8e969848d8f00012ecd5a20147593b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woofwoof9 bought 21,329 Yes at 46.9c ($10,000) The donation will go towards a good cause my friend.",NO,YES,False,True,22.0109,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:02:24.252341Z,0xfd5118d7a5faeb131a8cc9c234416e3ca934e5fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i simple man, i see yes, i click yes",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,0x8c9bce7d9d7d5a2614f3bbc70398760c59939046,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8374.068,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T18:57:01.646844Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,every mstr convert in 2024 was greenshoed and oversubscribed beyond the green shoe by an average of 27%. Expect close to,NO,YES,False,True,2612.9247,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-21T12:09:20.293053Z,0x3c490a68bf2c9c4604fd798373a8def01d8cbb72,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Small buy??? Bro thats nearly $1b worth of BTC lol,YES,YES,True,True,10897.4074,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T20:43:59.349182Z,0x9a0f6408f9a7f246cc54586a0f9c157e1d311e99,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"GUYS URGENT WHALES ARE SELLING THEIR POSITIONS !!!! Original-Zyn sold 337,981 No at 65.0c ($219,68765) aenews2 sold 208",NO,NO,True,True,7235.835,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T19:27:56.975762Z,0x475dbfdbe44a2f8632246cf4ceaea4161db47d7f,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","super rare ""Skibidi Sigma Crown"" pattern just appeared meaning btc will go to $104,999 before falling to $50,000.",NO,NO,True,True,227.2932,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:30:01.971442Z,0xc7cc89be740141b2d0d95f8d1594c7b9be3ce375,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nice one, you bought at the right time and saw the vision",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:47:30.085557Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys I sold all my YES and bought NO because I saw this: Specifically, MicroStrategy will announce details of its latest",NO,NO,True,True,2518.6,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T00:10:48.555149Z,0xf33f4ab078d53a9a76c4e51dad98991b9d30ebba,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your NO guys i will be happy to get it for $0.25,NO,YES,False,True,573.7366,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T14:31:23.578837Z,0x9a0f6408f9a7f246cc54586a0f9c157e1d311e99,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye West, after disclosing he was offered $2 million to launch a token, asks to speak with Coinbase CEO 'concerning cr",NO,YES,False,True,1034.999,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:07:58.342544Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Remember, last time it was Friday evening, it was the first time Kanye spoke about his Coin.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:41:02.211289Z,0x9193a277db2f12d48cc8864948270f7f50cf9a07,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"He¡¯s made back $200k from from yesterday, honestly I wouldn¡¯t have doubled down with if it¡¯s wasn¡¯t for him",YES,YES,True,True,180.4805,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T03:20:29.824888Z,0x05dd7ada0b77e64771dee1b0d9e575c3b77a61f9,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","this is close, does it need to hold 95k for a minute?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:31:10.317936Z,0x9a0f6408f9a7f246cc54586a0f9c157e1d311e99,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh guys, i missed it, i wanted to buy all in YES, crap... can smb tip me i would buy YES all IN",NO,YES,False,True,7235.835,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:01:20.056475Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I bought another $1k of NO now!,NO,NO,True,True,3518.6,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:45:31.123498Z,0x05fee6c5c6960689d5d4a1777012d62c64941bc0,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes, its makes sense, but if you are insider, and know the coin will launch, why not wait 3-5 extra days for extra +20-3",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T18:35:51.509732Z,0xc6974ec12d74145a72a5a6929602ddfba6d15464,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"That was $600 million convertible notes. This time, it's $2 billion. They purchase large sums of BTC within seven days.",NO,YES,False,True,9.43,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T09:33:57.036022Z,0x2fc01351b937191310a983edab863bd6f1af75f5,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,you should sell while being breakeven beaver !,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:27:46.482499Z,0x630e7725c71f6cbf8a57e52018a1ff81ead2893b,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You guys are celebrating but most volatility occurs before markets close right,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-13T18:03:05.408538Z,0xb80519584c41a4d719bcf4f60b6c04a56134df63,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I mean you saw how the stock market gains since the Trump trade were already completely wiped away. BTC won't be any dif,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:16:52.471218Z,0xef4d64b183c07125ba13b164cd42fc1af54207b1,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,unless big daddy BlackRock comes around the corner with a check over $200M USD it might be over,NO,NO,True,True,2271.7375,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:48:39.335978Z,0xf3e1e23a8bcc94834ef10235cb8c74ffa76faae4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"your going to give me $20 today because you are wrong and I am right hahah, does that bother you? lol",NO,YES,False,True,4604.9024,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:44:01.469642Z,0x2958929b06377e1f564a5cd9bf6baba44675affc,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? NO's are still cheap get'em while you can!,NO,NO,True,True,112.01,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:23:17.653064Z,0x6d1c71f7f0d3855cacfa8f35fdb662dcb79caded,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,fr but that still doesn't mean he won't launch it by himself. but I think this cz shit is just to hype it up,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:21:50.221348Z,0xa5e64a995129827672ae00b32eee4b2656629ee4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Love seeing top NO holders down $50-100k dont gamble on YE,YES,NO,False,True,19.94,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:45:01.790892Z,0x7fa0d03e408f816451e3b841e29f40be53f46755,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You are actually just chilling,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:04:50.613529Z,0x6d69f08e1004c9c60e96025449bef32c4d84317c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we no holders crowdfund and send some funny smelling bitches to Kanye's villa right now?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:56:05.970438Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hahaha he was No first, then yes, now again NO. he sold in loss every single time.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T17:46:09.328681Z,0xc8a1b077571371918476bbf9168afea58f0e868b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Okay, Okay, Okay, I need the price to go up. I can't take this anymore. Everyday I'm checking the price and it's dipping",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T11:17:08.309284Z,0x7b9aee7d64dfe4fd93fc73b3463eb6436d048def,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Good mornimg. Genuine question, what's it like knowing you've given away $16K to random degenerates on the internet?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T05:03:32.390773Z,0xb2a45fa996cb41bf189553e3c8c7d2c1327c37b4,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"ATH for November will be $99,999.99 and i will win this bet",NO,YES,False,True,120.7,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T15:03:08.122172Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,imma choose to believe the londoninsider website. Gl everyone else,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-19T23:32:27.288894Z,0x7fa0d03e408f816451e3b841e29f40be53f46755,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Why nobody scared this being an ultramega rugpull,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T17:32:25.058132Z,0x09573c88d181a0a3aafe5a9aab333faf8868d0c3,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I don't know what happened, but buy $5 for fun",YES,YES,True,True,5.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,0xf3e1e23a8bcc94834ef10235cb8c74ffa76faae4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4604.9024,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T22:16:27.310624Z,0xcfd6c63daca7aa010c1d0ae10000b8f75e9d45dd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I heard he was dropping in tele? I sold all my ¡°No¡¯s¡± at 100%+ so I¡¯m just doing a quick small hedge in case.,YES,YES,True,True,36.36,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T12:06:46.393348Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"im not + at least I have money, you seem to have NONE!",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:18:51.220688Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"exactly duh, surely hmu with like $1 so i can get a 5x on $1 this easy as fuck",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T13:46:20.920417Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,insiders + HODL = a clear NO. don't know why the price is not 90c already for NO.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T14:42:33.414897Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,come on pat don't pretend :)) congrats,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-17T10:35:26.631299Z,0xd97646e0132fc5255b1db214fb505246f9b1d0dd,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,yea im gonna sell when YES goes down. if i sell now i will lose $800 :(,NO,YES,False,True,3611.34,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T12:24:11.184522Z,0xd7f6ebdf0235f587154e2d7d38f9d80568494993,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Thank you Alphax for taking this hit for us, you saved a lot of people from losing a lot of money",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:47:38.137721Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,3 weeks ago he also was 1 hour too late,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:58.317655Z,0x4e0a482e6c146f5d283bab266448d4ea00cbb3f1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,We all know he bought lol but he won¡¯t announce on Monday,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:30:15.802263Z,0x0a0311836a973956a3a96711aae6d8475c5ced3c,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","only gamble what youre willing to lose, i only put $15 in for fun on this position just cause of the crazy odds",NO,YES,False,True,43.48,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T13:32:25.875675Z,0xa03610038c63170d7d599f1801549394f69fb063,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I believe poly officially encourages insider trading bc it improves their prediction accuracy.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:20:02.301789Z,0xed5f5c0e33f2306ae1d4b8773a1a1abd891e6702,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can i take a lessons from you? i dont give a shit bout my position here,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,0x5c6b72accf3b27ba0dbf3d5f1d340c174c90bf2e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,YES,YES,True,True,0.1,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T11:12:56.906445Z,0x8144fc3629b16b499429d4de23b06423c0f8bae1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Why is there a 20,000 shares limit order for selling yes for 50 cents?? That¡¯s pretty scary",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,0xc83a8e5afc5ca25a4f1d8becb06bd46d51e5e9c4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",NO,YES,False,True,30.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:18:07.621143Z,0x52fc4b11440285178097030af2d1a655996409fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"its a bubble, they cant all sell, most of them will lose",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-10T15:13:57.354314Z,0xf7076d1f2182f81f3ebedaeceeae487755e4a998,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"You must be since you¡¯re holding no, lol",YES,YES,True,True,4.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:09:19.655574Z,0xd485720965c3043697aeb2e5ea016377cae6cf9d,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",365 btc at 95k. Candle needs to close 1 min on 95k,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,0xbafa061f9cc6eefd2647188be11b01c357b785e9,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:44:57.769454Z,0x22a678bd0fee566b56574dbe9568c2681c7695fe,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"daoistimmortal is insider went all in in NO after selling YES, interesting",NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-30T05:00:46.155512Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"u didn't lose it. check ur wallet, it must be there",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T13:29:58.817125Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro, go and check that market. i don't know what's wrong with you",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:05:21.046319Z,0xf7eedd2bc737406d46d4cbfd51c2e90a6979987d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"The YZY token was initially set to go for sale on Yeezy's website on Thursday at 6:00 p.m., but the launch was delayed t",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T21:47:52.356781Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,"Monday Apr 29, 2024 tweet, the Monday before May earnings release: ""Michael Saylor @saylor Apr 29, 2024 In April, @Micr",YES,YES,True,True,17038.2611,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T15:52:24.539775Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,told you I would buy back in lower,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:43:19.795507Z,0xc2197adfc497a9668baaa339573d2185df61c3ff,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,TF did you just say? don't you know who I am?! XD,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T05:21:22.514612Z,0x4a8f918f97bcacff3eadca627c13562ee0cd8f76,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Oh, how sad, my 30 bucks are gone :( we'll hardly be able to jump over a hundred in three days",YES,NO,False,True,32.72,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-15T17:43:00.681642Z,0xf9f75cbbe968427fefd2ad52d9d656db927d9cb5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,take pls credit from bank pls to play big atleast,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:55.777282Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,as well i only got $4 buck lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.7352,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T08:32:08.708375Z,0xccaec433bfafc74f18b8544ae42686484ca437b4,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",ez win on the spot trading bro. got 1 btc set to sell at 90001. will buy more back at 88500.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,0xc0df64a4d1e78b7e05c6feb0911aea9a292b45bf,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,YES,YES,True,True,969.0409,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:55:30.306732Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a few bucks, this is the easiest money ive ever seen but i only have $1.6 rn",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T14:47:11.687367Z,0xfe4d250473de4c1ea86b13a5b5c42eeffcc27cec,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 IS LITERALLY AT 72% NO, YALL NO IS STILL CHEAP ON THIS LMAO",NO,NO,True,True,38.1071,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:53:58.293321Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""CoinDesk did not agree to the embargo, and three sources close to the project authenticated the document""",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,YES,NO,False,True,110.004,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:36:27.230037Z,0x74c92f2e0e8e969848d8f00012ecd5a20147593b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Gonna take a nap guys, could wake up $15 poorer we will see, very exciting.",NO,YES,False,True,22.0109,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T22:28:33.946143Z,0xf08b84247cacd6675073c45e01ef10f564564cb3,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,So you're saying $1 can turn into like $80? K here's a dollar,NO,YES,False,True,149.6667,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:07:20.000707Z,0x05dd7ada0b77e64771dee1b0d9e575c3b77a61f9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If you are thinking it will hit 100k today, buy at MUCH better odds at https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-100000",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:42:13.541005Z,0x5b63d1a8ffdddd2c2915508efaac495d8141a395,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bers better lock in your profits now, before its too late ??????",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:29.007475Z,0xfe7d54e95d1f7bebaafcf28f7613ba85aee820d9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"all or nothing for me. I bought no, at 08 cents.",NO,NO,True,True,119.54,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T09:08:43.601911Z,0x9a83e5289802567a50bf8a666a9805cb62c45057,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"May 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) is this till midnight then",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:06:51.574664Z,0xa50ec3402c26554e5ec2798c783ce315df5f6d17,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,It implies the purchase with his tweet and announces it tomorrow.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:26:45.969804Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Not holding a position is really fun guys! My heart doesn¡¯t skip a beat everytime new schizo information comes out abou,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-05T14:01:23.791513Z,0x4cf706392cc4a5ec89ea1e253597c98d91f00cc0,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,He lost 2169 dollars in that market if he was really an insider he would¡¯ve know that mstr will buy more than 200 plus ,NO,YES,False,True,5163.0436,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:27:49.482594Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,it's on sale right now for 80c,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-25T15:37:20.945179Z,0x5fbb810f6b85f2daab8a0da3bafe0dd63c2f41e8,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",it is at $95K rn it will need now $10K so it got even harder for you to reach that.,NO,NO,True,True,100.41,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,0xf3e1e23a8bcc94834ef10235cb8c74ffa76faae4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",NO,NO,True,True,4604.9024,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T22:39:53.853049Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I BOUGHT NO AT 28 CENTS WIGGAZ. THIS SHIT IS TOO EASY,NO,NO,True,True,500.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:51:00.255379Z,0xf3e1e23a8bcc94834ef10235cb8c74ffa76faae4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oooh, you make $40 per hour so impressive, hahah loser",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4604.9024,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T14:45:36.903523Z,0x89479cf1c83b4bb1e6080ebd77b26956068ea930,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are absolutely correct. If Bullishonsole hadn't bought $2,000+ yesterday, I would still be holding my 6K+ no shares.",YES,YES,True,True,10.8614,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:30:35.974309Z,0x6ccc115a898c67274d9b70252dd94b83859737a7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Still cheap right now 1 dollar for 78c,NO,YES,False,True,1721.9937,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T23:10:36.834391Z,0xb246b0d9ac52de91d60607444fc8b83992ceee56,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Congrats for all chads who holding NO and dont care about BOW BOW lol,NO,NO,True,True,1096.47,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T21:24:10.313414Z,0x05dd7ada0b77e64771dee1b0d9e575c3b77a61f9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,hes gonna pump it to 100k himself dw,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T03:44:11.194277Z,0xf102755c277ab7fcaa8c700c8b5db1ccbc0eadb1,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,buddy you've got like a 100 dollar stake,NO,YES,False,True,45.5014,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T06:49:18.432713Z,0xc3a21f89cb785870c935e031c2fcb9ea7a823810,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"unfortunately, I lost it everything ((( please ,who can tip me",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-18T18:16:39.272121Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,Dang if i knew tips was such a paperhand I would've put up lower limit orders,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T13:49:55.327097Z,0xf4d218d1f88b9bfba1ff2810ff0730da650d03ad,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We should we thankful that we have the opportunity to buy 1 dollar for 24 cents,NO,YES,False,True,1592.47,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:02:24.971437Z,0x74c92f2e0e8e969848d8f00012ecd5a20147593b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"lol, this event was unpredictable. But I would be selling now anyway for like $3 more its whatever.",NO,YES,False,True,4.0109,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T20:35:00.039257Z,0x2595f4d127e22d5231a97865a5e4baa309f89276,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Although details of MicroStrategy¡¯s BTC purchasing activity will be revealed on Monday, the firm will have to wait unti",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:54.222012Z,0xf51b8d7475630b58e9131fa8ed9cd0e1de30f798,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"oh no 400 dollars what am i gunna do, not like i made 6.5k buying no at 30 lol",NO,YES,False,True,4068.6382,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:35:31.036373Z,0x6d69f08e1004c9c60e96025449bef32c4d84317c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"not exactly same situation. I was comfortable with 24h ago, but when things start coming off the mouth of the horse and ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,0x980a17eba2ec868fd9f0e84ef25e6578bbf29ad9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,NO,YES,False,True,59.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:20:01.474807Z,0xdf61b3664cc5f20e8293c4b99fd4453a2ba3a589,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey, my card doesn't work for deposits so would be very grateful for any tips!",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-17T11:39:41.903019Z,0xd97646e0132fc5255b1db214fb505246f9b1d0dd,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,yes lol i wasnt focussing and i bought no by accident. i am waiting for the price to fall then i will swap all of it to ,NO,YES,False,True,3611.34,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:59:40.821192Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Exactly 7 Days ago, Kanye started tweeting about the Coin in the Evening around this time, we shall see",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:17:38.170917Z,0xf3e1e23a8bcc94834ef10235cb8c74ffa76faae4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you seem very angry about the $20 your going to lose today, so I assume you aren't doing too well financially lmao",NO,NO,True,True,4604.9024,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T05:30:23.138553Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"ya, i decided to keep quiet. why to take unnecessory critisim and abuses",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:07:13.246709Z,0x4cf706392cc4a5ec89ea1e253597c98d91f00cc0,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,you should've had stayed in no side Bro,NO,YES,False,True,3827.7687,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T03:16:53.653833Z,0xf36b46230cec380f263c36effa191783f501d581,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold all my coins and then bought back because i said aint no way im quitting polymarket with a negative portfolio,NO,YES,False,True,5491.9682,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +548985,2025-06-09T11:19:06.650441Z,0x3cf7c6767a081ad592f05f7fedcf4549ad4eb176,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,He¡¯s supposed to get his $980M on Tuesday why would he buy on Monday. I hope that this logic works out,NO,NO,True,True,449.93,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:11:46.488745Z,0x5ce43a3e2082da79590bcb034f5cf7337673922f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Well, you couldn't because it was a terrible bet, and went against all statistical evidence you seem to love so much. It",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:46:12.777505Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,We get it you just found out God isn't real from a Reddit post and now you are posting about it everywhere. It's ok,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T11:00:48.607521Z,0x937d8d5618e939bb44ed7081afd262ade9b828e9,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,$41.41 is what you need to break 6c,NO,YES,False,True,225.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:09:57.797334Z,0xc83a8e5afc5ca25a4f1d8becb06bd46d51e5e9c4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"His average transaction price is 56, and you? You threw 17 bucks in like a brainless gambler and still think you¡¯re mak",NO,YES,False,True,30.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:30:42.356611Z,0x0a12f9aac55c204be9e9c71c6d2185d38c6d3dd4,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Come on bro only making 30 dollars ??,NO,YES,False,True,434.2581,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T22:41:51.042225Z,0x9193a277db2f12d48cc8864948270f7f50cf9a07,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BTC didn¡¯t hit $20k or $70k on the last runs. It won¡¯t hit $100k until the next one,NO,NO,True,True,329.4849,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:16:49.052175Z,0x898e0c957fa2cac2cf53176d0371a15b531bce28,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,enjoy you'll never get a market like that ever again,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T20:54:36.938261Z,0xfcc7f3fe59444844955b9c32357ba04e8360c230,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I bought some Yes for the lols, Imagine if bowbow gets out at 12c at massive loss and we hit 100k??",YES,YES,True,True,552.4193,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +548985,2025-06-09T12:19:34.137784Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,No it¡¯s in strategies books already,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:28:51.678881Z,0x9193a277db2f12d48cc8864948270f7f50cf9a07,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,By my calculations we are about $2k from $100k,YES,YES,True,True,255.2328,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T07:55:55.915572Z,0xdf083e79bf78e5f6d0cb4d7afadfdfa9c0209cf8,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I asked chatgpt between Tyson and Paul who will win. Let's just say Chatgpt chose wrong.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T19:27:26.736594Z,0x138fc292194d2bacda55957a3bae051bb149191d,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Almost there, less than $500 to go.",YES,YES,True,True,3.6803,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T22:27:25.384309Z,0x4e0a482e6c146f5d283bab266448d4ea00cbb3f1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,What make you so confident in no .. explain bro ?,YES,NO,False,True,5123.5971,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T23:03:58.694187Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He has -$2,663.32. Fucking degenerate",NO,NO,True,True,500.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T13:32:59.487602Z,0x2eef6a6bac8254454485d6f8917478ef7653c38b,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,I think there's a reason for the huge liquidity,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:10:54.120377Z,0x535c607a65bd49f03b8dbfb3c6f6377fc4526315,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah I mean I am honestly rooting for BowBow, but it might seem like he just needs 1500 dollars, but the 99.9k Wall is t",NO,NO,True,True,266.37,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:41:41.880032Z,0x4c6ba4ddec4c59e7cd037fba011f317ace95319a,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","The is risk to reward is crazy, that¡¯s why I bought in",NO,YES,False,True,213.3624,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:33:57.770117Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"far out ur balling how tf u have so much money, im stuck with $1.7 of which i bet it all on this",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:51:18.733019Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"It's true. I'm actually extremely humble, maybe one of the most humble people around, everyone is saying it",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:37:02.235576Z,0x19fe34376b3aed2bd4cbb16afcddb04fdace682f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Im so sad I found this at the end of the month with my last 20 bucks, the odds are amazing, and this unhinged dudes twea",NO,YES,False,True,16.5488,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T14:48:30.756918Z,0x2d54478005deaee7c5ae48ed3efcbaf0cb1d1f39,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k is not a problem. 100k will be harder but the narrative of hitting 100k must be reached for a good storyline and lur,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T20:46:20.237975Z,0xdcdeac90cae026bb06a01d33573cb23254ee77f8,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can't wait for the UMA disputes when some coin is launched by the scammers using ye's account .... popcorn ready,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-08T22:02:39.635793Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,looks to me that someone/something bought around $580m using Coinbase Prime brokerage right after MSTR's preferreds comp,YES,YES,True,True,23639.3842,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:22:09.710313Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Don't listen to that retard. He probably doesn't even know what the differences between Azure and on-premises AD are. Th,YES,NO,False,True,110.004,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T19:05:00.345302Z,0xc0bf3a111a2220c9944f1eba9e670b79ce0312a3,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Ill cover ur losses - quit porn and cleanse ur soul and mind and return to god,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T23:02:09.117757Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"down $5k in this market but up by more in a related market, GuyWhoFcks was questioning the quality of the hedged bet, i ",NO,YES,False,True,4898.1039,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T16:19:49.461417Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"if NO holders were insiders, why are they not buying cheap NO? when they were ready to buy at 50c. wake up, only insider",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T03:33:01.492761Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,They have a couple hundred M$ in cash and Saylor already posted his chart on X. The text in the tweet doesnt hint at hod,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:54:54.912064Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,i dont wanna say cuzz then everyone will sell YES and buy NO and then I wont get filled. so far i only have $7k position,YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:56:11.973111Z,0x2eef6a6bac8254454485d6f8917478ef7653c38b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're welcome! Says a lot about your financial situation if you have to thank me over $20,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T19:37:40.680451Z,0xe7e9441a6f86fb21131139b4ffa0a71b5c1d8aed,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","$105,000 only? where is $1,000,000",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:40:25.270776Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"surely gimmi a $1 or too to buy some more yes, it easy money but i only got 1.6",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T08:58:41.953014Z,0x74c92f2e0e8e969848d8f00012ecd5a20147593b,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",Hopefully I don't win these 6 dollars,NO,YES,False,True,1.4412,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T18:59:29.307524Z,0x63f890300dee81808231b81f3c1d36bf192f2ed1,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah def negative for no holders that he posted the chart, but I bought a shitton of shares at 2c so could be well worth",NO,YES,False,True,966.1162,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:58:02.039199Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,NO Buyers are scared pussies and no one filled my order for $40k YES. Im gonna cancel my order now. useless market with ,YES,NO,False,True,8215.8427,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:17:11.241859Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Who the heck is this and why he Trade yes: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x22271273b28d0d198a8e5ff9e7f9f75d0c24b572,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:32:56.378983Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,finally something we can agree on,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:29:56.053059Z,0x951d92eaa13aeecb88bd82b773ff3647a77304a8,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 nga u have 46 dollars in 2 i promise you if someone bought his acc theyre not worried about a polymarket bet when they,NO,YES,False,True,12247.56,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T18:14:23.757671Z,0x05bd8b47bb1faf010d16bd55c61c6bc3e93147d4,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",looks like a casual drop to pump even higher to me i recommend you selling,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-20T20:44:00.090468Z,0x896e081aad601a8043af7e2bd064acdfcb7d5f05,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",why you dont bet No when it was 90c. if trump do something about btc this month. iit will get 100k easly.. care friend,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T21:58:27.835024Z,0xf33f4ab078d53a9a76c4e51dad98991b9d30ebba,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No. This guy just made more then $200k on this and just put few grands for anti fomo,NO,NO,True,True,808.7336,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-21T12:05:42.070541Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Everyone was hoping for over 10k.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:09:00.853102Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine Kanye just drops the ticker with 5 minutes left,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:32:47.784032Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wtf happened? i was sleeping, missed out selling at 90c",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:11:42.698654Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""@cleo3 can i sleep with you too please"" - desperate schizokanye",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:05:13.437319Z,0xc0df64a4d1e78b7e05c6feb0911aea9a292b45bf,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I have just ran some calculations, and we are about $3000 from $100,0000",YES,YES,True,True,969.0409,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:46:54.615441Z,0xfd303d254cad38f66f5f4c72c43537e6905cc348,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bro this market is fucked I hope I see you all again on something equally retarded,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T23:52:57.950729Z,0x58203769113954f0572c1d609fde864fea05e9b4,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","When it reaches $100,000, it's going to be all over the news. After that, the price will most likely skyrocket.",YES,YES,True,True,250.69,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:17:38.653342Z,0xe67c5b65d0b909288c795205ecbd21bef61e8232,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought more at 15c like a chad broski,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T20:28:23.522757Z,0xca4938ba5215e6e5ac6e0bcdb7df8277369a1d7e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I wish I bought at around 25c no, haha.",NO,YES,False,True,8373.1482,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:56:24.027561Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"thats his thing he does before he releases albums, he is just getting attention, he wont and inturn im betting money on ",NO,NO,True,True,1.7352,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T15:04:15.016518Z,0x79ed11326515a376e5bdd36fd0c23c9ae61f14a9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"If anyone got a few extra and don't know what to do with it, feel free to send my way!",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:03:12.767897Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yes, 4 of them literally hold NO right now. Why do u think that is?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:41:31.147379Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm gonna miss this fucking market.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-15T20:20:01.816202Z,0x34fad98e9fef212165fcd337decbdd393b900740,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",let's go let's get it 110k next step,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T22:11:32.228664Z,0x0bfcaa5acaad186f45e1878e64d9e2dfb7c42fcf,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,free channel in tg polymarketfree,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T03:54:11.745845Z,0x5b63d1a8ffdddd2c2915508efaac495d8141a395,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"my prediction: 10 ema will now cross 20 ema(4h chart), then upmove can continue and soon 100k. all these loudmouth no sa",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T16:10:58.384027Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,For one thing not every bitch has an IG or is a social media addict. Not saying if she has one or not. Even if she did I,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T14:37:09.603422Z,0x60d1580071998e81ba82040aaf36eae3035d7cca,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Totally agree. For a 50c option, 1c is 2% profit. Better let others to pay the price if the liquidity is good. Otherwise",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:34:58.339618Z,0x5ce43a3e2082da79590bcb034f5cf7337673922f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We've gone from the manic phase to the depression phase, it seems.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T01:39:05.090735Z,0x371e504522ed8a6e6ac2e8d80300d2d88228bf12,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,Why the Insider isn't here this week,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T14:49:39.926921Z,0x75f0faec21a3364ed62919c59b6cd230a4c2b32e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"No Holders Please Place No order in Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? ??",YES,NO,False,True,632404.2006,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T07:32:20.014433Z,0xffe78fc00277e79d456117210272d12d43b999a4,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,The news of Strategy raising $711 million to buy more Bitcoin increases the likelihood of a purchase in the near future ,NO,YES,False,True,654.73,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T13:58:07.481466Z,0x729c215d869f83ce551fc424caf34ae94f7eb7a2,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"bro, I really hope you won't lose your main $100k in 2024 bet",NO,YES,False,True,1512.74,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-24T12:56:53.970009Z,0x33447533296a40be6d600671eaa18970843158f4,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,I sold for cheap but I fine with that should have sold yesterday for 98c,NO,YES,False,True,245.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:31:39.426016Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,many still haven't sold. and bullishonsol sold at 1c.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:06:33.438357Z,0x7ecde8cd8579d530266fee900bd5150ce90e8421,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,obviously i dont know jack shit and time decay is not in yes favor but i think timing the market is doable,NO,YES,False,True,62.4262,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T07:52:23.957209Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"???? ALERT ALERT ???? @MiyamotoMusashi is -$2,104.27",NO,YES,False,True,500.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T05:54:10.851462Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm still here too, look at my profile history. I bought in days ago",NO,YES,False,True,500.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-23T19:46:33.274895Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,He has other ways to raise money AND he could technically finish a sale before the set date and do buys over the weekend,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:38:25.662008Z,0x3525967acd03eab952c906f13286d5f37d462ada,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this will be the biggest rekt of month,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T08:35:44.264877Z,0xfe7d54e95d1f7bebaafcf28f7613ba85aee820d9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Dammm 200k in a bet ? he must be a millionaire that's like $200 bucks for him.,NO,YES,False,True,119.54,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-18T15:26:23.612796Z,0x0e0ce0886d4a681298458a7bdb02cf234ff9e426,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"That would make me bullish on ""YES"" here https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-in-2025?tid=1744989954875",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:38:43.877609Z,0xb87bc86324b34748a416735ee4bfd9aeb464968e,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""Yes"" will go on a slow decline until he drops the coin or the resolution date is reached.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T16:54:16.240033Z,0x876b7dd35a8865e0361f4ea9b704c9cc8254095a,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Whales are going to dispute and win. Nice cash day for Y.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T17:28:50.944831Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,let the fun begin.see you NO holders at 80c,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:48.606467Z,0x59f92ea44d73c6baedadadd16bdb9b0f6b47c68e,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",This is where we make bank brotha,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:58:17.050327Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I will give you cleo3 pics if you tip me and send disc,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T11:01:17.512103Z,0xd6c7438b22a1ad8ea3f7ec06b6bdf650c83461e5,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can we get badges that display our religion next to our screen names? I want to see how many J3WS are holding YES,NO,YES,False,True,716.6325,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T15:23:57.684694Z,0x758aaf087a2a82094d5f12cbce5c5c2cdf829785,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"gg to the diamond hands, i sold the top. max pain",NO,NO,True,True,226.727,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:02:37.584755Z,0x8e76738453b75b2861ed3e09eb41be06caa0d77f,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",The 94900 wall is the wall Trump wishes he could've built,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:06:13.019898Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought some too. Cleo made a post about scanning and he found a multisig. I'm just yoloing because I cashed out all of,YES,YES,True,True,100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:15:13.316202Z,0x7008c0eea8ea75ba1c52fb04e2172ae9dba90380,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he's gonna take another loss. he has no conviction,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:57:04.634187Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,$40k is nothing to me bro. but anyway i am 100% sure on monday saylor will announce he bought. i have over $700k in MSTR,YES,YES,True,True,8215.8427,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:06:01.128482Z,0x4cf706392cc4a5ec89ea1e253597c98d91f00cc0,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,Tbh bro I just doubt this number one no holder better you sell it now .. why risk for 50-60 dollars more,NO,NO,True,True,2029.1785,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:55:13.206997Z,0x4e0a482e6c146f5d283bab266448d4ea00cbb3f1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Didn¡¯t you see the way mstr was in minus ?? It was him selling his mstr shares heavily to buy big number of BTC,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,0xd3ea1e7496b09fcf57994754c25de7e9624b7b80,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,YES,YES,True,True,93.0883,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T00:04:54.500897Z,0xd7f6ebdf0235f587154e2d7d38f9d80568494993,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Please I beg you, this time is the last one, no more gambling, I promise. Just put me breakeven please lord. I promise n",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T06:45:42.387292Z,0x147d15ab6ad449428edb1cc99a1156897621dd02,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Kanye is dropping 11:59PM ET on Friday, and we'll make it all back",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:03:22.991805Z,0x677cef43f3752152ee8089a4bc05e28e4b92235a,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,arbitraging and selling put options and farming premium,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T11:37:15.941314Z,0x4e0a482e6c146f5d283bab266448d4ea00cbb3f1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Why did you decide to sell your no just curious,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T08:21:46.549681Z,0x7224991014bb9a13ddf7ad7bd0cd5edb5ca08746,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Damn bro sorry to hear that, I'm sure you will recover all the losses soon, best of luck.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-23T06:51:06.540244Z,0x4f6469b42c59de2e01c858341790ea70eca4e39d,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Concerned about the BYBIT exchange theft, so I purchased a $1 ticket for fun. But I hope that doesn't happen lol.",YES,NO,False,True,1.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:11:59.526404Z,0xd78011d1e0fa2b623860a4e8bda48ad730d000f6,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"You absolute menace, enjoy those $30,064.75!!! Props to you. PROPS TO ALL NO HOLDERS, we all got fucking scared today, a",NO,NO,True,True,2040.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:05:16.393716Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"how about 47c for $200,000 USDC?",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T19:09:40.762336Z,0xddd77b09fe147a50255058f6d094b24eececa2cc,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bitcoin has never put +40% monthly candle since 2017. this time is not different,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T21:06:32.331499Z,0xdc122c57cbe7f4a0a576a3f9d3575c13910ba12e,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",@Pedro999 broke af betting against the market RETARD,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T22:30:19.755646Z,0x85184b269defa3df00310dff609cedc6cfe4d449,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Chat, beginner here. Do I hold until the end, or do i selln now?",NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T11:21:17.465586Z,0x32b65e231c8a9d29fc1443590cdd06edcff625cb,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",We might be looking at a dump down to $60k here,YES,NO,False,True,30578.7082,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T14:31:01.840185Z,0x17cb4294ab0e6d81dd9a7d37a331d6c4f50ece04,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",finally it was good value to buy yes near 90k,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:34:59.795501Z,0xa9248e5f224a1725865a8f165baad739318383b7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"At the time of this writing, according to the share button, BowBow will win $1,999,999.91, not $2 million.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,5003.9635,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T16:07:36.800829Z,0x828cfed3d74460bf7a9e2c244ae3f9f42e70773c,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yep he got a team working for him. All it takes is an insider to be on that team and recommend something like ¡°we shoul,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T13:11:37.380075Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it will hit 100k and muh precious and famous bowbow will be rich rich RICH,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:46:03.140919Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,then go to this market and 5x ur money https://polymarket.com/event/did-kanye-sell-his-twitter-account?tid=1740278496346,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T00:48:39.335978Z,0xf3e1e23a8bcc94834ef10235cb8c74ffa76faae4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"your going to give me $20 today because you are wrong and I am right hahah, does that bother you? lol",NO,YES,False,True,4604.9024,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T09:10:29.252697Z,0xfc4370a02dbcb5dd5ab4d9d1ce737827048b3b9f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yes true, when I bought some large chunks it was cheap around 28c for sure. Now it¡¯s not cheap anymore for the risk one",NO,YES,False,True,8430.1899,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-29T03:45:54.090528Z,0x1354dc39ed3d4bf4011815859c04c5690c044561,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","BTC only reach 110K if fed reduce rate , otherwise flash crash is most probally hedge",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T20:44:02.110895Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"First thing i saw, wanted something different than default colors",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T15:33:26.021002Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"i have insider knowledge, he will be launching his coin within a week.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T08:19:25.332238Z,0xf76fbeb90921919b309137b678752ea3e90b4109,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"$90 downside, $4000+ upside. As a fulltime NAS daytrader the RRR is too good to pass up lol",NO,YES,False,True,90.31,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:14:45.596909Z,0x1375830e0581adc4a32ebce60c4a4981cd66e7b5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Fat finger order haha realised it bit late that I sold instead of buy,YES,YES,True,True,200.1034,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,0x4887fc1869c42effb9ebabd76a9f7a05f7ec681d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,NO,NO,True,True,47.23,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T14:23:55.987398Z,0x1375830e0581adc4a32ebce60c4a4981cd66e7b5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"Saylor is a scammer, we all know it",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:11:13.959747Z,0xf76fbeb90921919b309137b678752ea3e90b4109,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"The way I see it is a 50x return. First scenario is; he actually buys and I lose $100 (boo-hoo), second scenario is; he ",NO,YES,False,True,116.77,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:32.827559Z,0xe36e48922c8cd5895bb80d4e90f2d67a7db00772,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i hope we¡¯ve got some backup to pray,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T23:56:03.393074Z,0xa9248e5f224a1725865a8f165baad739318383b7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"CoinDesk and WatcherGuru are hosting a Bitcoin $100K livestream right now. Wtf bro, are they like anticipating it happen",NO,YES,False,True,5003.9635,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:19.022918Z,0xcc54846a77e798ce7f926aa1aefef669042dc996,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,174.6129,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T17:51:19.045341Z,0x7d8a547ecae47a031ea46fff45876e400c28217a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"I assume the completion post will come after market ends within like 5 minutes, isn't that how it normally goes?",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:37:47.224242Z,0x1a6a288df4c975807811e40915ce504c5662f370,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"So if I bet $10 and I win the bet, do I get an extra $10?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16.99,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:47:50.656902Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T19:21:33.189303Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,if i was doing that would i have bought YES at 45c? make it make sense,YES,YES,True,True,8215.8427,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-01-31T22:13:41.843505Z,0x896e081aad601a8043af7e2bd064acdfcb7d5f05,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",its not over YET! btc mega candle inc,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:13:55.512253Z,0x9193a277db2f12d48cc8864948270f7f50cf9a07,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Rough calculation. We are about $3600(4%) away from 100k, in crypto you know 4% is nothing lol",YES,YES,True,True,273.5393,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:34:35.842507Z,0x5ce43a3e2082da79590bcb034f5cf7337673922f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I know, that's why I relate to you and feel concerned for anger both ways.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T01:03:42.440397Z,0x3d4602e9a6270c1fb39790ff7690cbd68eeecb57,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Why is this mkt cheaper than the one for the 29th when it's only 1 day difference?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-13T12:23:51.256632Z,0x6d0873d69aca68c7be64e7c18537cac09bc91bb4,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",is this here working like a future/options trade would at a cex?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:05.326863Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'm really worried about ae I'm not kidding either,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T18:32:09.863188Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"you make a fair point, history shows a 100% record for green shoe and 100% record for even more capital than that. I'm g",NO,YES,False,True,2612.9247,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-04T04:44:15.238727Z,0xf9f75cbbe968427fefd2ad52d9d656db927d9cb5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Degen is crazy put 100 k on insiders market,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:36:38.191723Z,0x5ce43a3e2082da79590bcb034f5cf7337673922f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Yeah, he seemed less angry last week. Like things were looking up a bit.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-19T20:15:56.456894Z,0x9ca7054a82b129cc06967618c5202ca5c3d206cf,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",so far your position is -3k so why dont you take this discount and buy more if you are so sure lol ????,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T22:01:18.377709Z,0x0a12f9aac55c204be9e9c71c6d2185d38c6d3dd4,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,bowbow bitcoin just went up 100 dollars time to buy more!,NO,YES,False,True,630.5406,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:15:09.164931Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"any chance u can give me like $1, i prob wanna get another dozen no but dont got anything rn as well this is obvious why",NO,NO,True,True,1.73,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T11:06:04.867384Z,0x833c914ab47e07615b2f0625ea15c347e96383f2,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,Will the finsl payout be the same if i hold ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,618.46,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T22:50:52.085976Z,0x11ac27bd6151d6ada4e28fa733515a5e452fa5e5,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",the rise is definitely pointing towards some correlation to trump being elected,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T18:55:54.412009Z,0x1cafeecd46e77e627bd23d0d86ab0383796047b8,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",correction from close to 100K to 87k imho,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:07:56.189953Z,0xc68f68748f92f6cf42431c2d2abba40c244a2220,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Ok, I'm convinced, I bought more no",NO,NO,True,True,22363.918,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:48:00.463858Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"guys fill me at 39 cents for 40,000 USDC, then ill buy another $300,000 USDC at 55c.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:01:55.306928Z,0x294ee12bfac88ca8486474eaa9e3b8c463a20f2b,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","I buy at 7 cent, how big ball i have",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T16:52:09.424122Z,0x898e0c957fa2cac2cf53176d0371a15b531bce28,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,do something against ur autism brian,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T04:12:11.132889Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me, i'll take my chances. yes it was supposed to launched earlier only, and getting delayed. but still a real good chanc",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-08T06:42:26.916058Z,0x674900b2c7bfa8fed0642def80403e297800ad7d,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","What happened, down so much in one day?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:13:43.374239Z,0x71a84e08d524cbc13055f3e6e39412b45bfb0951,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,also you've only made $50 and are getting this emotional over this bet. Maybe you are the one who needs to start posting,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,26.3264,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:33:52.243414Z,0x8cee2e5359017bb1ff531738baa11a2d08a1bb24,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Your $8 will shake the markets up,NO,YES,False,True,2581.22,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T13:56:27.848288Z,0xbcf9191c4b943cf04893747023639e6e29d3541e,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Now he sold all the NOs and put the profits into Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?,YES,YES,True,True,20.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-20T17:59:24.697558Z,0xa9248e5f224a1725865a8f165baad739318383b7,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","If it's going to hit $110k, just do it right now, please take me out of my misery. Grape me and get it over now. Stop te",NO,YES,False,True,1681.722,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:35:43.311798Z,0xfde58edd8d49131ae4d0e65a0553c819daf6aad5,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will not reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",NO,NO,True,True,9.13,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-23T22:58:36.039459Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,don't worry you got at 50 seem fair just because your daddy sold,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T06:04:09.668797Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i switched sides. reasons listed below.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T05:27:57.019133Z,0x4e0a482e6c146f5d283bab266448d4ea00cbb3f1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,I sold my no In profit at 70c day before yesterday.. taking bet on yes let¡¯s see .,YES,YES,True,True,1777.6983,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-17T16:05:12.797491Z,0x77b64281f64c8aa72c1907ed55fbe9af76152cc3,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","ggs for my boys who bought yes at $105.000, lets hope for another pump trump to hit $110.000",YES,YES,True,True,20.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T14:13:13.423756Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,its Superbowl Sunday ofcourse he isnt posting!,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-13T20:52:31.428819Z,0x1cafeecd46e77e627bd23d0d86ab0383796047b8,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",It has never been so obvious that it will hit 100k... crazy.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:22:26.814923Z,0xae67a13dda171abc199843e01b157a61813b265b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where do you think the $15m grant for spreading LGBTQ awareness among Cambodian youth went to,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,225292.9331,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T06:18:16.771286Z,0x1e696d17e63bca02529ae69743557182a5a7e676,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"If dalailama and nunchak are indeed insiders, they will get reported to SEC if they win this lol, too much risk for them",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T11:18:45.923148Z,0x9503e7db3ad6488ad1445accc91083dafc9bc2b8,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We may have lost this battle, but we haven't lost the war yet.)",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:07.056027Z,0xb749d6ed7f36013e987c2d9d7322ed65dc9ef953,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hold the line! We hit $99.5K a few days ago, but we¡¯re still holding strong. There¡¯s strong resistance at $99.5K. it w",NO,NO,True,True,408.6401,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:21:49.315582Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"I AM BUYING ANOTHER 80,000 YES SHARES AT $0.39. FILL ME GUYS. I am not gonna increase my price.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T21:36:33.168468Z,0x28f969660432baf99e052bc117e076c6c273fa2a,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold yes, i lost money, but now im in the win side",NO,YES,False,True,46.6048,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,0x5c6b72accf3b27ba0dbf3d5f1d340c174c90bf2e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,YES,YES,True,True,0.1,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T12:32:50.286653Z,0x78bdda7ad81fd21c8daaab3834cf2b4c951d2cb1,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,It went up $500 and yes holders starting stroking it,NO,YES,False,True,1232.7083,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-12T07:44:46.595818Z,0x0f939bbdfe190d4aa3f5525f3ad01b580f929c39,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,$MSTR ATM Update: Based on most recent 8-K ~$4.17B left in ATM ($4.15B to be exact). https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/statu,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,691.3282,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:18:08.099213Z,0xc83a8e5afc5ca25a4f1d8becb06bd46d51e5e9c4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wow, a $12M volume trader who still holds positions that went to absolute zero. True market wizardry at work!",NO,YES,False,True,30.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T13:37:44.169713Z,0xc5054558094d9123aeece542675b24634eb0977f,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Jim Cramer said: ""All I can tell you is, own Bitcoin. That's a winner."" I sold ""Yes""",NO,YES,False,True,3.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T06:16:54.088816Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,He said fuck nfts like 2 weeks ago,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T20:26:29.964818Z,0xce0b40a55989fbc9d9e49d8567b4084c6c6d2e2f,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,bro how are you $50k down on your portfolio LOL?,NO,YES,False,True,20.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T18:12:25.437589Z,0x9e8ca1889694d46640c2d63c419890b99e2f0b13,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you look at the order book data or just purely from graphs?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:02.877735Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,aenews i'm starting to get worried about you. you've lost your magic touch. you used to be so so good at this but these ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T16:47:17.216629Z,0x5aa632afde946a0d46a6d510ff4213bfb126825f,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,i dont get it. The bitcoin tracker image he tweeted doesnt seem like he bought any bitcoin after Jan 31st-ish. I just bo,NO,NO,True,True,7.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:42:15.720594Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I knew it was over when kanye deleted all his tweets,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T09:07:02.750612Z,0xcee72552d3ff6e25d6fed5d24cf2838fc0827eee,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"We will all know for future, we know how Saylor buying BTC we have max 3 hours from here to expect post, Saylor always a",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T03:01:52.032299Z,0x9193a277db2f12d48cc8864948270f7f50cf9a07,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think anyone with $500k to throw on a bet knows people for sure.. a low probability as well,YES,NO,False,True,196.0393,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T02:31:07.469077Z,0xe2a84f176148a48e0825552ea7df93df0a7e66d4,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I bet 150k on Risky shit but still cant approach girls ??,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +548985,2025-06-07T11:25:04.479844Z,0xef3597f9cbd70d0ceba906e207592c09ccc54d37,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,Im new here... first trade!.... Is this really that simple? I vote no amd if i win my 14 dollar is 181? Whats the catch.,NO,NO,True,True,12.7,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T14:06:41.819463Z,0x74382ecbe1a37ccbf4166c39629f43cfcd3c81db,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,What happened? Is there any news? Has they bought it again?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T09:33:49.347085Z,0x085280f6716a521462d7abfae56402b7bc3c461a,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,No nigga I ain't doing what you tell me to do. You think I take instructions from a Jew?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T21:46:48.140777Z,0x3f6c2b6a8cdde39a9877784b1505dc88fd1ebfda,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"As of February 9, 2025, MicroStrategy has not announced any Bitcoin purchases between February 4 and February 10. The co",NO,NO,True,True,11.5,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T18:40:12.273401Z,0xad263df8e413d012b70f81dc23601a91133dc36c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye says that his net worth is $2.77 billion when actualy all his worth is $400 million (as of late January 2025). His,NO,YES,False,True,100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T22:53:16.022098Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,You mean your broker took your money today,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T13:47:03.523944Z,0x8a7897aec49855a4496579f7c96f29742f44d1b7,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",now it starts to get intresting,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T11:53:30.811686Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,lol what is this guy doing my avg is so bad ??,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T20:58:14.037817Z,0x085280f6716a521462d7abfae56402b7bc3c461a,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guys it isnt a pump for no. its a dump for yes.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:17:45.793027Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"bro fr ill take $1 tip to bet on No, i fr only got $4 rn and its all on NO baby",NO,NO,True,True,1.7352,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T20:44:19.092037Z,0x8a7897aec49855a4496579f7c96f29742f44d1b7,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, quite a good buying opporunity of NO shares as well",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:06:28.335036Z,0x8c9bce7d9d7d5a2614f3bbc70398760c59939046,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold most of my stocks at a loss, but luckily I didn't lose money.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,8374.068,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-06T18:37:19.056021Z,0x0a3b27e053f09adc5146b85329e428ddff580ae5,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Unemployment data on friday, inflation data with ridiculous expectations on the 15th. A generally second weak half for b",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-17T11:13:46.575445Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Some retard filled me at 66ct NO which im now selling. Im a trader,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:21:15.083541Z,0x74c92f2e0e8e969848d8f00012ecd5a20147593b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I need to make $4 its tough I know,NO,YES,False,True,4.2684,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:03:13.659963Z,0x7fa0d03e408f816451e3b841e29f40be53f46755,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,would have never said so... nigga,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-23T06:45:50.242916Z,0xb61a991f0440c22fb2ccff6b8f09afdd20782d92,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Waiting for the harvest of patience.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T21:10:37.549954Z,0x147d15ab6ad449428edb1cc99a1156897621dd02,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,What's happening? I don't even trade these markets. What's the tl;dr on market prices?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T06:58:52.127018Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Then there's so many other proofs, like the things written in the article. Ofcourse this wasn't a pump dump. And if they",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:35:02.647761Z,0x898e0c957fa2cac2cf53176d0371a15b531bce28,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"me too kanye i lost almost all of my money, i just need 1k so i can gamble more",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T21:37:25.393527Z,0x521c434f0cb24fe5582c08a356e636b48099bb85,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""I don't need your pus*y b*tch; I'm on my own d*ck."" - Kanye West",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:35:31.440425Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SUDDENLY HAVE A STRONG STRONG FEELING THERE WON'T BE ANY MORE TWEETS FROM KANYE. THEN YOU'LL HEAR NEWS REPORTS HE OD O,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:43:22.512446Z,0xb565bc6fea50ee9cb81ab1f8067ab04a32d53c23,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,i wouldnt advise you to do that bc the 100k psychological mark isnt invincible,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:54:02.573805Z,0xed5f5c0e33f2306ae1d4b8773a1a1abd891e6702,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is a market lasting more than a month. Why do you think that something will change in 4 days?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T23:17:06.463021Z,0xdc65733e2277bb9f1d8d8142e0406269a13cf3af,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,There¡¯s $4.15B left of ATM offering of common stock.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,403.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:42:02.529569Z,0x1e5eff0dc3f7dd7d60b7b38186c5a81d282c6b23,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1 dollar for 79 cents is a bargain,NO,YES,False,True,56.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T14:22:40.309384Z,0x31b555d450f9ae98a6d74d5dc49862dad2332f5d,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For yes sisters, ""Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29"" is at 1.8c YES. 1.8! Why waste your money here?",NO,YES,False,True,2499.5772,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T23:33:26.710856Z,0xa476daa07258daf9d16e18886e20fd4f8cf931c7,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,he bought today but when will he announce,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:55:18.001984Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,It's a gambling website what did you expect,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T14:12:54.130546Z,0xc0df64a4d1e78b7e05c6feb0911aea9a292b45bf,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I have ran some calculations. Roughly $4000 to go until $100k.,YES,YES,True,True,969.0409,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T04:23:26.240198Z,0x4d85498030e964928475898ffdd2452f554dc4a2,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I put mine at 43c but unfortunately I bought at 61c. Not getting out of this unscathed,NO,YES,False,True,57.089,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-23T22:07:27.045582Z,0xf660aa7bb9e1d69aa021c97abff40ecce3690e5a,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","bitcoin will reach all time high tomorrow, thank me later ??",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T01:44:38.450461Z,0xed5f5c0e33f2306ae1d4b8773a1a1abd891e6702,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Going to the Moon really soon...,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T17:51:07.020798Z,0xf653a82ffbdd6c09c81b0082ad78362ced680e2a,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I withdraw when I have taken $135,NO,YES,False,True,57.41,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:29:55.789239Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,The assumption that Saylor will stop doing ATM sales comes from the fact that MSTR announced a redemption of one of thei,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-26T16:55:57.180219Z,0xc4c29b0f3b3b6601f605ff3cfec59d47c9aa2896,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Are you will losing more 63 k bro,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T14:08:15.737811Z,0x7ecde8cd8579d530266fee900bd5150ce90e8421,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How you regards holding yes are doing?,NO,YES,False,True,890.345,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T22:46:47.478497Z,0x238b427f3173fe31bbca7e45bb9ad3cec0fe18b5,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I sold most of my no just keeping some no for now and yeah im gonna buy in on yes soon not yet tho,NO,YES,False,True,4.3097,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T13:03:47.469778Z,0x29716ef798c8ace4cda83537c4f593a53321efe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,donda was delayed by 401 days but the coin launch wil be on time?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-03T12:52:47.879679Z,0xf19be81657b281d6fd54c57da5584d77f9cd85a1,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,you might win this win time but on the long the guy is buying everything i have bought the no in the past and i have los,YES,NO,False,True,10311.1316,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T22:30:13.194074Z,0x0d78e86cb5c88c2e3cbe855a30aacb4d6368c505,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i've been browsing his page for over 3 hours now lol,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:01:48.093437Z,0x5ce43a3e2082da79590bcb034f5cf7337673922f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,One more time with these assumptions and I'm pointing out you've been betting on a racist party winning the German elect,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T12:58:26.348157Z,0x1964f332f5e8df50a56a34f60c5f8e43640f2d6d,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"To build on this point, it¡¯s also important to note that in all previous Strategy BTC purchases, Michael Saylor or the ",NO,NO,True,True,67.58,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-14T14:50:03.942053Z,0xbeb4d9b1951fa5feaa0374c39cd122fd64a341c8,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","It was a rough day for me yesterday, doc. And it isn't a career, more like an addiction",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:35:53.530736Z,0xe91059c813dcc9904c9b9b92f404f6aa9c3faa59,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Its not about the money but rather the thought process behind it. You naively sold your no position and changed it to ye,NO,NO,True,True,5533.7285,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:35:59.653481Z,0x898e0c957fa2cac2cf53176d0371a15b531bce28,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"shut up already, we love kanye",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:38:53.709518Z,0xf51b8d7475630b58e9131fa8ed9cd0e1de30f798,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I wanted to sell my no because I feel the downside risk for no is higher, one tweet can easily dump the no side, just be",NO,YES,False,True,4068.6382,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T12:18:09.135184Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"hmm, did aenews ran away? damm, wanted to see him lose big",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-28T03:37:50.079373Z,0xf37e1bfb7072a119752aac06ea603c6e6a5d6f0d,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I told myself I wouldn't do this market again.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:22:03.434262Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,I have never seen a Car hater with a positive PNL,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T22:06:05.512113Z,0x40198f9beec050d3c93bc90f9922b358e46cde2c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GeorgeFloydFentanyl lost $10K on his yes positions and I¡¯m so happy,NO,YES,False,True,3120.216,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-13T06:48:17.338823Z,0x2a32e635ffdc87dcad505ccce73a0345461404d3,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","If you believe that neither 85k nor 110k will happen, you can swing between the two for max profit.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:12:32.841908Z,0x8c9bce7d9d7d5a2614f3bbc70398760c59939046,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Would you use the $200,000 to buy a new home?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,17927.37,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T19:26:54.086372Z,0x22a678bd0fee566b56574dbe9568c2681c7695fe,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,sniffingground is insider he go all in NO,NO,NO,True,True,300.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T18:00:50.740759Z,0xecc48f7ae9b7621ca34ee775952678f0a9c42744,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BTC will never hit $100k by the end of November, 'maybe' it will be able to do so after Trump comes.. there is a big wal",NO,NO,True,True,65.2,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +535289,2025-04-11T17:07:32.244771Z,0x9fa4f14461afc0801e416300b6cba77df49c9a55,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,is anyone elses deposit taking forever? been 1.5 hours waiting for my deposit,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T15:57:20.581685Z,0x6ccc115a898c67274d9b70252dd94b83859737a7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,F3UCK Y'3LL 'YES' N3GGAS..... GIVING ME ALL THE STRESS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.... ILL DESTORY YOU GUYS 1 DOLLAR AT A TIME,NO,YES,False,True,4116.9017,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T04:07:30.051947Z,0x17cb4294ab0e6d81dd9a7d37a331d6c4f50ece04,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",i keep getting cooked im betting on these walls holding and bitcoin acts like they dont exist,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:07:57.503709Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,the point is everybody knows they dont buy on monday. they buy BTC on weekday. and announce either 8-k or press release,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T13:38:41.281198Z,0x3412347f3df78984f71f51c57fb8caf5474a056c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,dont let the ye'haters win! keep buying the yes!,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-28T03:47:50.572782Z,0x4b4673459ba3368a79c26d3e796155e31729c29d,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Jews have never lost in thousands of years, they massacred Egyptians, Canaanites, Babylonians, Greeks, Romans, Germans,",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:12:53.115421Z,0x4887fc1869c42effb9ebabd76a9f7a05f7ec681d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,GAH DAMN give me 20 bucks brooo please i need to buy more no only 20,NO,YES,False,True,47.23,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-24T01:37:47.913471Z,0xd1cc3b061e5e973b1988e519b502e5c3b9b8fd35,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,At the time of my last reply it was 55 dollars *,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.41,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T02:48:06.906589Z,0xbafa061f9cc6eefd2647188be11b01c357b785e9,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He lost $250k last week thats why he had negative pnl,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-14T15:47:33.337312Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Bitcoin is still over extended. It was up 40% in a week. You really expect it to do another 40%? We are going sideways f,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T01:24:10.465125Z,0xd78011d1e0fa2b623860a4e8bda48ad730d000f6,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Guys can someone help me? So if we keep holding until tomorrow and it closes in ""NO"" what's next? I'm new. What will hap",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2040.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T17:58:54.361398Z,0x8a7897aec49855a4496579f7c96f29742f44d1b7,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","yes, thats why you should buy some",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T12:43:48.732805Z,0xbc351769558eee0abdc8c5733bfe8652daa90550,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Btc will be at 97000 at the end of november folks,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T22:41:22.248626Z,0x2c710e1b0bfa7c439e08b2ff319f02cbc4d4d4d0,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","70k, 40k, that's just crazy how much people bet. Where do you get all those money?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T13:53:15.484146Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wall order is of ERASMAS, he started buying.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-06-30T23:45:24.737084Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Feels like they're never gonna stop buying at this point,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T19:07:51.324295Z,0xad0c7e97b02f379a3f4b91f3ea0782e057704314,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Bruh he literally said he¡¯s not doing a coin,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T07:38:32.991762Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's over, all no holders sold. I sold jk",NO,YES,False,True,500.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:12:45.773109Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,"car with the psyop as usual, thats more certain to happen than the sun to rise let alone saylor to buy",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,0xa9248e5f224a1725865a8f165baad739318383b7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",NO,YES,False,True,5003.9635,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:38:01.918964Z,0x471bb7ddc507658e005892638f299f624bda3030,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I¡¯m hearing reports a God candle imminent.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T17:29:56.131055Z,0xfd277f4dbb1ed34e956db4525178b963d7fd9647,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024 ? I buyed no. Will Bitcoin hit $100k in Nov ? I buyed yes.,YES,YES,True,True,109.984,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-24T20:24:38.982112Z,0x6d45d9dd74aff42a540cb9b10353a320fa29736c,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I agree. I hold BTC but bought No as a hedge,NO,NO,True,True,6251.2316,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:42:46.131739Z,0x1e5eff0dc3f7dd7d60b7b38186c5a81d282c6b23,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,im kinda sad i bought at 57 cents and then 30 seconds later kanye decided to tweet about crypto. i couldve bought at 30 ,NO,YES,False,True,56.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:48:03.456595Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"He will launch literally last minute, he is a troll, he will make his insiders rich 100x chances are 0.3",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T06:58:26.767296Z,0x7c5284204ce9c459a52935b259c48a10f5e39865,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Same posts before he is buying,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T17:30:43.590448Z,0x2b988758c76728c9ffddfc0c9aadef67599cfdec,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Aenews got clapped on both sides of the market ??,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T04:21:17.050284Z,0xaa416ebe3ad9ba9f7cf9fc9fe3f3627c9a5aa504,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thats not polymarket taking a fee.. that fraction of a cent is a fee of polygon blockchain which is being used run this ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:59:59.124295Z,0xdcdeac90cae026bb06a01d33573cb23254ee77f8,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,See you degens in the march 7 market,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:35:39.726013Z,0x2eef6a6bac8254454485d6f8917478ef7653c38b,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Maybe because his last few tweets are also late?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:24:58.661502Z,0xed739c2168606fa220eb7f08f65b3bfc8f22aac7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I am in the 99th percentile of racists - Sam Kessler,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T13:00:17.141408Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol my theory was correct. the whole idea that he only post on holiday was filmsy. his team was just chilling out on jan,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T17:21:15.120679Z,0x8502f54037704e3814550fb3ca36aeb29554e591,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",it can hit 90k but 105 seems too high for November,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T13:32:59.716935Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I read the whole thing lol. You bet blind? If your reasoning was that good you would¡¯ve dropped a lot more than $1k lol,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:18:15.418611Z,0xaa2115b37aa01f4fe76a30ffe5c20f28785d7c52,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bow to the King BowBow - he is break even now and soon adds another Million to his Account,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T08:33:02.192241Z,0x4887fc1869c42effb9ebabd76a9f7a05f7ec681d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can someone donate me 10 bucks i had my last 50 bucks and i want to put more on no,NO,NO,True,True,47.23,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-25T13:16:54.793137Z,0x9091338d03110548267bd626f8bdefe3aafaba54,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I bought no so it probably will jump to 99 yes now knowing my luck,NO,YES,False,True,1.09,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T12:13:07.240118Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,¡° IM TOO RICH TO DO ANYTHING ELSE COINS PREY ON THE FANS WITH HYPE¡± he¡¯s aware he¡¯d be scamming his fans lol,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:32:41.389056Z,0xb1d65729bd421a15c12880c62113445f602bc7ff,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",YOU WILL SEE JUSTICE WHEN I WIN,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-15T04:44:39.683114Z,0x92c5cfba3b05e2845c3c3c8de05ffa5e4a1316a0,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",buying btc right now is hella dump unless you wanna hold long term lmao,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:07:51.142016Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nah Kamala IQ is like 140. Trump 120, he's a smart boy but no match for Queen Kambullah Whorris. No disagreement with Ka",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T09:17:47.610764Z,0x89718cc3e671e251df412b518d356517ca37b719,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Thanks BowBow for holding the yes holders % up,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T15:06:24.167032Z,0xad263df8e413d012b70f81dc23601a91133dc36c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,i heard about Polymarket a few weeks ago and i kept watching what is this all about. i decided tonmake an account to tes,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,100.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-01T12:01:38.782778Z,0x0e17d8147c094c3c29c56554733e9e6a5aff03c8,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,2PM and there is no tweet. GG No holders,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T15:30:10.240282Z,0xd78011d1e0fa2b623860a4e8bda48ad730d000f6,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey everyone, for those of you feeling confused about what's going on, I¡¯ve been working in fintech, specifically in cr",NO,NO,True,True,1240.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-07T20:41:53.018761Z,0xbeb4d9b1951fa5feaa0374c39cd122fd64a341c8,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Polymarket has pulled me back in again, here goes 24 nights of watching the charts",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T12:17:40.232981Z,0x8c269f8b944fbfe262d19cef118d002e0ab34aa5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,How do you know if someone is an insider?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:53:02.888718Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"he is gonna lose $100,000 like a retard",NO,NO,True,True,2518.6,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:02:46.406044Z,0x3cc3766733378aaa5262a624c458311de1b4fb84,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",why are you against your own bets lol,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T03:54:36.409332Z,0xcc767cea01baddfea6ef665b2766e57a3e47e461,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We're pricing in no tweets, If he tweets because he's Kanye then they can just market buy and eager Nos will capitulate",NO,YES,False,True,575.5809,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-03T18:08:53.471317Z,0xd97646e0132fc5255b1db214fb505246f9b1d0dd,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,lol if ppl read their investor filings they would have known they're not buying from yesterday. thats why i bought a lot,NO,NO,True,True,1499.4534,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T16:04:42.255819Z,0xead208d7eb9b65fdb1760d68fc2b79efff61da85,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sam kessler was the one to load up on YES with hundred of thousands, then he posted this article saying that it *may* la",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T08:20:14.541373Z,0x25fbfd0ecebbe5dd0b0d6f651331ec4e83aa2cc7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",NO,NO,True,True,15.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:04:05.284574Z,0xa9248e5f224a1725865a8f165baad739318383b7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Wtf are you talking about 5 minute new daily candle? Please explain. It reached a high point of $98.6K in the past 24 ho,NO,YES,False,True,5003.9635,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:10:27.927568Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,All this makes me more confident in NO,NO,NO,True,True,5320.89,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:21:28.794205Z,0xd6c7438b22a1ad8ea3f7ec06b6bdf650c83461e5,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Toss me $50K. I'll get you even on this market and you can chill for the night,NO,YES,False,True,966.6325,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-16T13:04:39.229201Z,0xcb305e31d605df759728c7c431fefc6e94e14710,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Looks more picked 90k, I think 119k has the same opportunity",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-03T02:04:10.714944Z,0x9ac8e480025ef8b7887d2eb1d2fed5ceba5e34a5,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Metamask is quoted me 170+ in eth gas. ????,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T13:14:30.194414Z,0xf9f75cbbe968427fefd2ad52d9d656db927d9cb5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,saylor is worth 10 bil dorsnt care about insiders ¡­,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T19:04:08.270922Z,0x7ecde8cd8579d530266fee900bd5150ce90e8421,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"God damn no holders you are tough. I sold part of my shares to buy back cheaper, btc shot up, no prices basically still ",NO,NO,True,True,47.6979,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T08:18:12.452918Z,0x085280f6716a521462d7abfae56402b7bc3c461a,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Fuck you nigha you literally don't know shit you Jew supremacist,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T15:52:40.667209Z,0xb749d6ed7f36013e987c2d9d7322ed65dc9ef953,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Says the guy with minus $1200 profit ??,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T14:56:49.829726Z,0x05dd7ada0b77e64771dee1b0d9e575c3b77a61f9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow just bought into november 29th market. Yes is at such good odds it will 5x in a matter of minutes,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:20:07.524703Z,0x8b7480366eaca0948f11560c80f1dca3249dc23d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Where tf u live to pay $134 for rent,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1046.8872,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:07:01.448936Z,0x894616c63a95418b75f742c8be1ce5d330b32a01,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,u think random ppl buy at 67 cents with new accounts?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T14:08:40.690399Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,YOU COULD HAVE AN INFINITE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SHE WOULD STILL BE WORTH MORE,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-26T15:08:14.983523Z,0xac966cba68a52be62429692e2670e40899d05271,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","my apologies, i am not a native english speaker",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T18:46:21.718844Z,0x9aed5539157f236b9faed7cd03ae7c048e04abf4,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",95k isn't hitting as long I hold.,YES,NO,False,True,0.456,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:46:41.599224Z,0x74c92f2e0e8e969848d8f00012ecd5a20147593b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I lost $4 on this market, very sad but now Im outta here. Enjoy refreshing twitter guys!",NO,NO,True,True,4.0109,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T14:42:12.364512Z,0x4ed90ada0b293c4db093825f498682e4c3a37b55,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Now you are the one who is stupid bro because you talk toomuch,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T17:29:32.253161Z,0x147d15ab6ad449428edb1cc99a1156897621dd02,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Not for Kanye, but maybe for his coin launch team to get some free bonus checks!",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:29:17.039153Z,0x6ccc115a898c67274d9b70252dd94b83859737a7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"LOL i sold a bit, im buying back in",NO,YES,False,True,1846.3537,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-19T10:44:22.145817Z,0xfebeffd3020f0d92f11c1ccb7b137df37cd0cf2d,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,@Car I hate red heads because of you,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T18:39:12.363939Z,0x9aed5539157f236b9faed7cd03ae7c048e04abf4,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Don't worry bro I gotcha. I placed money 95k. I have the worst luck in the world as long as I hold 95k it will never hit,YES,NO,False,True,0.456,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:55:40.541729Z,0x6d4ecdf7329ec7d0cadbaf9dade044a82cd92b36,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,"Bro It¡¯s not deffinitly but if you¡¯re no sure you¡¯re on time to leave and keep save, I¡¯m Betting because It¡¯s just ",NO,YES,False,True,41.06,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:12:43.023814Z,0xfdb186f11090838532855bd80d23356f31e05398,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I can't believe I sold at fucking 50,YES,YES,True,True,40.4974,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-01-31T21:55:18.453303Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,pat please get yourself together you can't get mad at me for calling you misinformed and not broke due to luck a day or ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T03:45:58.214378Z,0xc9adda57cf981db31424add6b69f9d0c5cfe2fca,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,calm down mr money bags100 dollars is pretty high even for a good steak,NO,YES,False,True,9920.6484,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T18:44:38.534693Z,0x1a0bdc77640aa1e698043b8f750462c99b8b9e0d,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow you should sell at 40, you can get $250,000, there is no liquidity on holidays",NO,YES,False,True,57.62,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:36:24.163888Z,0x63f890300dee81808231b81f3c1d36bf192f2ed1,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,That¡¯s why I bought more :) Just in case he doesn¡¯t,NO,YES,False,True,844.6362,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:58:15.218944Z,0xe9b8c3f14e30f626c1fe2f6ff66c175bb1ccf15d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Is this over at 11.59.00 or 12.00.00?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:04:46.825613Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me $1, i wanna buy some no rq but got nothing",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T21:18:38.880785Z,0x8565faab405b06936014c8b6bd5ab60376cc051b,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I bought some lmao. Super illiquid market... I am not insider fwiw.,YES,YES,True,True,4100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T08:54:38.168642Z,0xf476881cbffa04c4f6e3cba608a28173633a5cfe,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,No holders come up with all kinds of reasoning just to avoid saving themselves the last 5 bucks. Absolutely wild reading,YES,YES,True,True,6453.0733,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-21T12:49:26.101531Z,0x3c490a68bf2c9c4604fd798373a8def01d8cbb72,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Alright boys, 3rd times the charm for no. Strat had to drop stock prices by $30 to cover this buy, next set will either ",YES,NO,False,True,10897.4074,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:12:31.652031Z,0xf76fbeb90921919b309137b678752ea3e90b4109,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"I know you lost several thousand, but why not put $100-200 more into a NO. If it lands you get some money back, if yes y",NO,YES,False,True,116.77,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T15:10:16.235478Z,0x6ccc115a898c67274d9b70252dd94b83859737a7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Market crashing left and right. I¡¯m so glad I sold my eth so I could bet on this market. I¡¯m a genius,NO,YES,False,True,1824.1137,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T11:55:17.728228Z,0x65bac60c31e73811bc9b5e713a3392b27a469e61,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,in how much time are gonna know?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T16:27:19.687273Z,0xa476daa07258daf9d16e18886e20fd4f8cf931c7,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,he made $60k and now doesn't want to scare people he knows Saylor has bought,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T17:43:51.144354Z,0xd7f6ebdf0235f587154e2d7d38f9d80568494993,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lets meet at 50c @Hasty-Whip, it either happens or it doesnt happen",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T04:41:12.981425Z,0x980a17eba2ec868fd9f0e84ef25e6578bbf29ad9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,this was my first bet on PolyMarket and i went small but a wins a win,NO,YES,False,True,59.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T14:37:37.998546Z,0xa03610038c63170d7d599f1801549394f69fb063,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"I'm always rambler, this name means something to me.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:15:38.780569Z,0xf35ccb70bf752fe58ed5778d856f037e55990297,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I just found another article on CoinPedia posted by an Indian guy... He was paid $1,500 to post a press release saying t",NO,YES,False,True,104056.5858,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:22:57.920719Z,0x5c6b72accf3b27ba0dbf3d5f1d340c174c90bf2e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you bet 10 on current avg price 0.3cents you'll get 3333.33 shares and if yes is the outcome you get extra $3323.33. ,YES,YES,True,True,0.1,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T18:00:31.098413Z,0x33b6688aef3512bcbc84d119fe93af83aebbe331,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I will tip him 1 dollar once no wins he is fine,NO,YES,False,True,70.34,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-04T15:48:24.589968Z,0x9ca7054a82b129cc06967618c5202ca5c3d206cf,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?","Someone start buying yes, I want more but cheaper",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T13:53:32.053481Z,0x2eef6a6bac8254454485d6f8917478ef7653c38b,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Cooked how? ""Old Wise Man""? He bought 15k shares at 1c and 3c and sold them at 80c.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:27:35.203286Z,0x3525967acd03eab952c906f13286d5f37d462ada,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"he has golden b@ll$ , his risk is appreciated by no holders even",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T21:05:06.708766Z,0x26585604e6274187baa59ed878668b465f045595,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,"Not only that I went to the TOP ""Yes"" and he lost the same bet July 1-7",NO,YES,False,True,2263.26,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T15:26:15.482616Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,its true over and over again my conviction keeps growing that the decabillionaire spends his time reading comments about,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T17:27:28.288724Z,0x6ac32a7a4f473e10af6edd258920659c1d07769d,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","why do you guys think it wont get to $105,000 ?",YES,YES,True,True,3.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T15:42:34.095791Z,0x1b476e7b15473e5e68b3e9d96ca239b239963c2e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BTC dominance trending down. Money rotating to alts.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:35:57.744182Z,0x1d07df4f55e6ffefb298fa991a7b266562ff8855,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"LMFAO, i mean thats a massive W decision there ngl, but idts u will win this",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-14T21:07:54.676394Z,0x33447533296a40be6d600671eaa18970843158f4,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,$MSTR ATM Update: Based on most recent 8-K ~$4.17B left in ATM ($4.15B to be exact). https://x.com/Adrian_R_Morris/statu,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4081.039,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:13:15.225712Z,0x05dd7ada0b77e64771dee1b0d9e575c3b77a61f9,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I wasn't tryna be toxic bruh im literally on the same bets.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:07:45.307353Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,omfgawd i can post comments again,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:51:11.182975Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,if only u listened to me the last time,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T12:26:37.710472Z,0xa03610038c63170d7d599f1801549394f69fb063,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,I'll also be digging around LondonInsider for a bit--I suspect they've been retroactively changing their reports.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T14:26:34.694811Z,0x31b555d450f9ae98a6d74d5dc49862dad2332f5d,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"""Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?"" -- 1.8c yes ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?"" -- 24c yes",NO,YES,False,True,2499.5772,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T19:37:48.289686Z,0x79dc04431c034075110274235bf2ee96948c2e55,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",someone lend me $50k so I can buy No $95k,NO,NO,True,True,5545.8165,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:35:31.854994Z,0x71a84e08d524cbc13055f3e6e39412b45bfb0951,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I bought his account and i'm gonna fake a coin launch. Why is Yes so low?,YES,YES,True,True,86.8895,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:54:30.763535Z,0xa9248e5f224a1725865a8f165baad739318383b7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"BowBow, can you lend me a quick half a million so I can vote no and make a quick $10K?",NO,YES,False,True,5003.9635,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:42:31.516492Z,0xe9b8c3f14e30f626c1fe2f6ff66c175bb1ccf15d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If the ""Insider"" is so sure, why isn't he buying all yes with his money right now?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:15:27.183334Z,0x05fee6c5c6960689d5d4a1777012d62c64941bc0,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"But like, earlier today article on coindesk said that coin is ready and now he says that he is only in stage of bringing",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:21:58.354094Z,0xe67c5b65d0b909288c795205ecbd21bef61e8232,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I mostly diamond handed, but I sold a bit too much at 33cish",NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-22T06:30:46.251958Z,0xb2a45fa996cb41bf189553e3c8c7d2c1327c37b4,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"you can ask Chatgpt this quuestion ""Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? answer Yes or No"" chatgpt will answer no, if yo",NO,NO,True,True,145.6,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:46:59.277021Z,0x50c6fca7adb98fb0e04a3f9fdfa3583d3e62cc4f,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,how is so much money in yes???,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:19.903982Z,0x9608284f46caabfa5db2ed2dfcbef8f8c79ebf64,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Sayler never miss to post about BTC,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:03:37.174707Z,0x0a0311836a973956a3a96711aae6d8475c5ced3c,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","so glad i bought more at 94.9k, easiest 2x ever",NO,YES,False,True,43.48,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-12-01T01:01:25.159085Z,0x96570a22ef88c62fa27c4d398aed83a83fae800d,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",HOW COME MARKET HAS NOT CLOSED,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-21T09:32:16.716588Z,0xf76fbeb90921919b309137b678752ea3e90b4109,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,"Would risking a loss of another $300-400 matter to you in order to potentially gain $10,000? Only you can answer that.",NO,YES,False,True,116.77,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:27:19.056236Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"woah, i got a cool $2.76 to start with lmao, good going man!",NO,YES,False,True,1.7352,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T13:38:33.753915Z,0x1375830e0581adc4a32ebce60c4a4981cd66e7b5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Well thanks to you I made bit of money there,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T16:22:43.422868Z,0x79dc04431c034075110274235bf2ee96948c2e55,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",what people dont realize is that its the YES voters that are the ones who have to sweat. they have to continuously break,NO,NO,True,True,5545.8165,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T18:36:09.561493Z,0x9aed5539157f236b9faed7cd03ae7c048e04abf4,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Welp I don't like doing risky trades but I bought yes. And got my drink. If I win I will get drunk. If lose I will get d,YES,YES,True,True,86.4056,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T06:49:50.834871Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If muh precious bullishonsol lawst a brand new BMW M5 series then what the f did Zyn lose?,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-24T22:10:07.951052Z,0x8aa6893a9c4fb1235bc972c9ddbfb1327d73b9df,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?","Hey man, all I'm saying is, you should take your $8k while you can cause I think with how crypto is performing this is g",YES,NO,False,True,500.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T12:10:47.895026Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,lol so they raised $584m for the explicit purposes of buying more bitcoin but when they receive the cash they suddenly d,YES,YES,True,True,23639.3842,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:15:03.009529Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,kimchi what are you doing? buying at 99 selling at 93?,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:37:47.224242Z,0x1a6a288df4c975807811e40915ce504c5662f370,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"So if I bet $10 and I win the bet, do I get an extra $10?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,16.99,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-23T20:52:26.884922Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,there has only been two time that this exact thing happen. Every other holiday he didn't post graph on Sunday so we all ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:40:35.008309Z,0xbafa061f9cc6eefd2647188be11b01c357b785e9,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"He was actually on positive pnl until last week he bet on ""No"" On this same market. He bet $250k on this and lose all. E",NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-03T11:49:24.570026Z,0x9ef24bf50e855d8697734628fd13f06dcce8979b,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,this man is sitting with $1.5m volume and -$40k PnL xD. He just gonna lose another money,YES,NO,False,True,1129.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:56:15.664633Z,0x6d69f08e1004c9c60e96025449bef32c4d84317c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I don't trust any of the CFO info. No way to know when who was who in Kanye's enterprises, all too volatile",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:34:57.931374Z,0x7f90dfdfe1c9617657899958a9abc71024042b22,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,thanks again i bought more NO for cheap )),NO,NO,True,True,2018.97,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T14:24:51.530766Z,0xfe4d250473de4c1ea86b13a5b5c42eeffcc27cec,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29 no trades are at 68%... do people think that alot could happen in 1 day lmaooo",NO,YES,False,True,38.1071,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-28T23:37:36.768973Z,0xaa416ebe3ad9ba9f7cf9fc9fe3f3627c9a5aa504,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,BowBow no matter if u win or loose.. Gotta give to u for those Titan sized balls..,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-07T13:36:44.106881Z,0xd8842effd1d0bcf71de9f2796fd6b238efd3b7a4,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So glad to see Fujin turn around bratha,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T09:23:09.882902Z,0x17cb4294ab0e6d81dd9a7d37a331d6c4f50ece04,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Tick tock, on the clock, but the party don't stop, no oh whoa whoa oh, oh whoa whoa oh",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:05:09.475847Z,0xc6062cfaad01fcf9ea23874cddf20fd281453fa4,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,So fucking retarded I lost $100 buying/selling no because this fucking bigger retard pushed the price up so much lmao,NO,NO,True,True,4798.3966,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T02:19:16.741144Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,whates getting scammed on the way up and then on the way down,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T22:38:29.703157Z,0x646cbb2603715f55a95bc3fbefb346869257ca8c,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",There is literally 1 trading week before the month ends and 2 days in that week the stock market is closed (Thanksgiving,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:34:31.087413Z,0x6ccc115a898c67274d9b70252dd94b83859737a7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Brother I was trying to trade in and out yesterday. Didn¡¯t work. I bought more ¡®no¡¯ shares back today,NO,NO,True,True,1721.9937,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:23:48.462895Z,0x640dfaa0d0476ee43d378083f887ccbfe61009e0,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,when will that Saudi Prince dump $2 billion into the BTC market?,YES,NO,False,True,264.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-27T21:16:37.256888Z,0x49bd191887d5b914361558d6f2ecd2fff7486247,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,MicroStrategy is expanding revenue by capitalizing on Polymarket trading opportunities with our Director Data Driven Edg,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T00:49:41.874851Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@MiyamotoMusashi is a -$2,626.76 weeabo.",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,500.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",NO,NO,True,True,5724.53,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-23T21:26:20.990372Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Car are you insider? I am just saying it 50/50 I got in at 25. seem good odds. if you putting down +70. you should be do,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:10:39.363421Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Is @bugoutmode an insider? He bought $1,016 worth of 'Yes' 10 minutes ago. His account was created June 2023. This is hi",YES,YES,True,True,100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:16:31.550901Z,0x5b63d1a8ffdddd2c2915508efaac495d8141a395,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"looking at priceaction it might actually happen, such a crazy day",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T06:10:34.678214Z,0xedc505e8bd3496449d60974a399f440572b23e2b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This is Kanye you're talking about.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,0x640dfaa0d0476ee43d378083f887ccbfe61009e0,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",YES,YES,True,True,264.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:33:56.462135Z,0xbd86fc85e561c9ddcce1b0442caa4c24d72440b1,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",See you all tomorrow. Aint envying the 95k noers,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T23:33:16.412873Z,0xde4f08b49a48dbe41445de438dcc1f8f3dfe56d4,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"MicroStrategy can announce a Bitcoin (BTC) purchase on a U.S. federal holiday, even though the SEC's EDGAR system is clo",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,352.13,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T03:09:57.797334Z,0xc83a8e5afc5ca25a4f1d8becb06bd46d51e5e9c4,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"His average transaction price is 56, and you? You threw 17 bucks in like a brainless gambler and still think you¡¯re mak",NO,YES,False,True,30.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-23T21:59:24.538691Z,0x7e67c992b0854af7f303b9059b2408a28ffe1355,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I bought 5870 USD - BTC today... Thank you.,YES,YES,True,True,8937.0661,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T20:15:58.407487Z,0x8a7897aec49855a4496579f7c96f29742f44d1b7,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",dont need it because i got ????,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-08T15:27:02.622578Z,0xfe8db36a8be7c8e6958493ec1ad0bf33a02fb7a7,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,like nobody knows that Kanye is Ye,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-23T14:12:07.158732Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"what do you mean, it hedged perfectly. Down $5k here, up $5k over there.",NO,NO,True,True,4875.7871,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-28T11:30:13.982151Z,0xc2197adfc497a9668baaa339573d2185df61c3ff,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Let¡¯s hope for some belligerent statements from Trump during Zelensky meeting.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T06:25:44.779986Z,0x7f7ca250d0f236872d8dcc2eee5788582a022619,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",invest 10k in no 95K and you'll get 40K soon.,NO,YES,False,True,1.666,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:25:33.951304Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,5% yes now???? Insiders are going to launch a few minutes before time ends. I knew it.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:46:59.559189Z,0xe8e4c29fdf2eaff352453a93b4f0d2969cd32d05,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Sell your no's before it's too late. I am here for the people,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T12:40:18.288171Z,0xc0df64a4d1e78b7e05c6feb0911aea9a292b45bf,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Don't spend your $0.66 profit all at once,YES,YES,True,True,969.0409,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T13:18:59.178307Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,mstrking may have to change his name soon,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:10:22.798881Z,0xb1d65729bd421a15c12880c62113445f602bc7ff,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","sure they do,losers wanna lose",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:39:11.505436Z,0x5baec4d2c0a68b96172f4d75257f062ff8615871,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"i sold 69k of my no shares until end of year, kind of regret it now",NO,YES,False,True,14366.748,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-03T13:45:13.871716Z,0xf9d903a73b59df93978a1c4c92e451165a14990f,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Who's gonna propose a res? 750 dollars,NO,YES,False,True,89.82,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-21T01:25:39.896902Z,0xf36b46230cec380f263c36effa191783f501d581,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",I swear it was like 10 bucks away,NO,YES,False,True,1058.33,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T14:14:01.906118Z,0x830b34c3834453e78e3beb09dbb6d9c773ae9f71,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,because the news site itself is pure shit worth nothing,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-23T04:31:16.586209Z,0x8919f96d95c338d14a916c6afb3ec177f0b8ecbb,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Seems to me bulls are getting tired, let's see what happens...",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:29:41.629888Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,This market has attracted so many retards that hodl a position and think they knew the answer all along and they weren¡¯,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:27:29.398892Z,0xb749d6ed7f36013e987c2d9d7322ed65dc9ef953,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Every second that passes is in No holders favour,NO,NO,True,True,408.6401,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T18:25:56.448589Z,0xc0bf3a111a2220c9944f1eba9e670b79ce0312a3,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If you want to buy yes buy cheaper at over 100k on the 29th,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +565921,2025-07-26T14:08:27.919454Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,I suspect it will be a small buy. no graph post but will 8k monday. so I am not selling sunday if no graph . Gl brother,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:36:24.100462Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You definitely know something I don'y, mind sharing?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T20:30:50.363708Z,0x2595f4d127e22d5231a97865a5e4baa309f89276,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,does this mean YES already confirmed? why isnt market closed then? https://londoninsider.co.uk/microstrategy-will-disclo,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T10:29:30.498514Z,0x25fbfd0ecebbe5dd0b0d6f651331ec4e83aa2cc7,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bitcoin has seen many fakeouts at $50k and $20k, there¡¯s a ton of psychological resistance at $99,999 - people would be",NO,NO,True,True,27.18,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:14:30.131386Z,0xbafa061f9cc6eefd2647188be11b01c357b785e9,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Thats why its overpriced. But im pretty sure he will announce it soon. We both gonna lose our money. For me $1 is not a ,NO,YES,False,True,1.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T05:15:38.384491Z,0x4cf706392cc4a5ec89ea1e253597c98d91f00cc0,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Yeah in NO holders all are accounts are newly created,NO,NO,True,True,426.4766,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T04:25:11.776544Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I mean the only reason to buy YES right now is to dump on someone for pennies more than you paid. I'm not bag holding t,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:47:12.315792Z,0x3d2a3d59ea633eefff425b5402388d8f733b73c8,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@aenews2 after watching you rule cuck one market after another, there is something quasi therapeutic in watching you ig",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:30:40.767214Z,0x98387e837850625c6adb336f3a86bdd567755e0b,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"$15,136,263 Vol. So proud of this community",NO,YES,False,True,560.5604,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T23:34:16.999852Z,0xe8ac34222e2a2980fccfbb60f8876a7f120b6063,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Wait a minute, it's 3:30 PM In LA right now, it's not even dark",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-28T20:58:20.821596Z,0xa3dc36c97e6977949205fadd59d83789a873dc45,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I sold all of my 'No' shares that I bought at 28 cents at 90 cents. I made $1,606.06. Too easy",YES,YES,True,True,100.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:45:03.774745Z,0x05fee6c5c6960689d5d4a1777012d62c64941bc0,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If someone actually had access to kanyes twitter, i would post the coin just few minutes before deadline, so i could get",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T09:32:45.214018Z,0x733c615b30d84190de29e8fc18166335caf59681,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're kidding me, i bought at zero point zero, base twelve, one eight six four",NO,YES,False,True,132.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T12:56:12.923351Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"finger on the button, if that dot chart comes out i'm flipping so fast you'll think i've been holding YES the entire tim",NO,YES,False,True,25024.2139,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +535289,2025-04-11T23:46:25.857577Z,0xd97646e0132fc5255b1db214fb505246f9b1d0dd,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,im so happy i am holding yes shares! easy money,YES,YES,True,True,3296.4866,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T12:03:11.328049Z,0xd5f264ea4dd2fc45d1e98983f2826c0bc83051ef,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Why did Strategy choose to suspend purchases after Trump took office? The answer is far more complicated than it seems. ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T23:09:47.296134Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I HAVE A BIG LONG UNCUT COCK I GIVE THAT SHIT TO CLEO3 ON THE DAILY,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T12:08:44.974242Z,0x975ada126c442045df165a75a29a1f2b9b6fc575,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,People underestimating how long he could continue buying,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T10:36:09.690999Z,0x5b63d1a8ffdddd2c2915508efaac495d8141a395,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,his exposure would be total of 200 million dollars ??,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:05:03.424573Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yo surely give me like a $1 to buy a dozen more no,NO,NO,True,True,1.73,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T10:10:18.847929Z,0x225a15d874b0c64469d01e0845d6dbea31f40948,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,wait bowbow was actually talking in chat?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:53:49.337623Z,0x8ea969c114a67698d718b98e9544352099ed0f92,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,dont worry he's a german white troll,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T18:20:33.866985Z,0x1c11a7a06ebc7180dc6c781ff4426c62bd366389,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I had absolutely no idea what I was doing here but my $100 turned into $200, so thanks for that",NO,YES,False,True,19.3029,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-03T11:01:52.074587Z,0x371e504522ed8a6e6ac2e8d80300d2d88228bf12,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Although I bought it, I think there are many insiders on the other side. There are also many people who only registered ",YES,YES,True,True,350.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T12:25:43.662269Z,0x9608284f46caabfa5db2ed2dfcbef8f8c79ebf64,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,He won't break the weekly steak,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T04:42:24.748817Z,0xe955d8a7a0caf6a3273019b33c3eddaed65478fd,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye is a Nazi scum pu55y-ass bitch nigga.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T20:32:50.206495Z,0xf36b46230cec380f263c36effa191783f501d581,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I took a 4000$ loss on polymarket yesterday i went almost all in on this trade to make back my losses hopefully it goes ,NO,YES,False,True,8828.6493,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T11:39:30.750692Z,0xcee72552d3ff6e25d6fed5d24cf2838fc0827eee,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes like u said brother, but i holding full if he posted chart like a Sunday JAN 19. NO will automaticly go to 99, but s",NO,YES,False,True,307.02,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T20:22:26.319706Z,0x439a258c63f8711567fbe384dfb0b7e17c03c0fd,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,The yes holders trying to deceive everyone so they can sell,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:14:57.803489Z,0x4e0a482e6c146f5d283bab266448d4ea00cbb3f1,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,Man I trusted you until you said you,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-02T10:10:30.993142Z,0xf9f75cbbe968427fefd2ad52d9d656db927d9cb5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,you brokie you dont even have 28 k than better shut up,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-28T14:04:29.595187Z,0xcee72552d3ff6e25d6fed5d24cf2838fc0827eee,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,good morning to everyone expect for people its not morning for,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T03:11:15.142246Z,0xb20dffd7b72f85351e1c0ce3915fcb4d9c62f426,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,When I bought No shares the prices of Bitcoin were around 98k-99k I think I dont understand why people think it will hit,NO,NO,True,True,15.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-22T12:37:19.259521Z,0xdc65733e2277bb9f1d8d8142e0406269a13cf3af,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,You¡¯re right. They definitely bought. Everyone holding No should sell immediately.,NO,YES,False,True,85.2875,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:07.330259Z,0x7fa0d03e408f816451e3b841e29f40be53f46755,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Lmao this is pure non sense panic rn,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T19:34:15.504802Z,0xa9a9085d876c4dcd40ed9b94c5c2e2eb0ca1c961,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,greg the retard hahaha dude from last week. don't listen to him and build a shitty narrative,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-23T08:31:30.986272Z,0xcc54846a77e798ce7f926aa1aefef669042dc996,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Conclusion: While some market analysts and enthusiasts are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching or exceeding the $100,000 m",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,174.6129,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-02T18:06:15.668174Z,0xf9f75cbbe968427fefd2ad52d9d656db927d9cb5,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,i wish polymarket make some filter to 1000 shares + on chat¡­ tired of this small brokies who talk all time¡­,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T11:30:52.691226Z,0x980a17eba2ec868fd9f0e84ef25e6578bbf29ad9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I brought NO at $4.5 looking likely as we dip next week and make new highs in Dec me thinks,NO,NO,True,True,59.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:09:29.458965Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"if i put $200,000 at market price i will only make $22k profit. that is stupid.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T19:37:23.539481Z,0x4cf706392cc4a5ec89ea1e253597c98d91f00cc0,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,I really wanna see how mstr will do this week,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-28T07:00:43.141656Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",Well its been fun but its finally time to rev up those fryers,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T10:44:23.437295Z,0x4cf706392cc4a5ec89ea1e253597c98d91f00cc0,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,Tbh I don¡¯t think they are insiders in NO side,NO,YES,False,True,426.4766,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T04:49:22.101255Z,0xf33f4ab078d53a9a76c4e51dad98991b9d30ebba,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Lol guys haven¡¯t you see just difference between chance % and price? They got like $0.01 on each side. 16% for yes and ,NO,NO,True,True,808.7336,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T13:19:49.277068Z,0x8adc29df0bffaeac5f27f22766dcf085e161481a,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,YES holders really need a Saylor completion post right about now. It seems like the argument is the funds won't clear in,NO,YES,False,True,2577.1509,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:28:40.652673Z,0xcdec3da157208dde907a0c65727c4e4e53b116a9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,what is the theory for his website being on the monday? Is this not just based on the ZY in yeezy looking like 24? I've ,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-22T17:08:56.421149Z,0xf43bca5face2c38f6ffad44130b89137fc11f5ad,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Do you think it's gonna crash?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T12:42:05.293573Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,So do we interpret that hodl as he won't buy or just saylor trying to think of something witty to add to his dot post?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-19T17:34:16.756449Z,0x05bd8b47bb1faf010d16bd55c61c6bc3e93147d4,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",bro should not make finincial desicions,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T06:31:17.553602Z,0x05dd7ada0b77e64771dee1b0d9e575c3b77a61f9,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Wow, could've 10x if you bought No",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T20:16:36.943606Z,0xe45acda96f1aad7f1243f17a2ebebb02ae4186f0,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,My goal is to get a $10 PNL by the end of the month,NO,YES,False,True,4.212,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T16:38:11.954141Z,0xcc767cea01baddfea6ef665b2766e57a3e47e461,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We get the opportunity to short a scam pump to $0, what a gift",NO,NO,True,True,304.86,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +521166,2025-02-25T01:33:53.055727Z,0xe5988d6b6d6a95f6840b9d9f9364278d425cf1ac,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",i remember when bitcoins costed like couple of bucks,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:28:27.778352Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yo surely give me a $1 so i can buy a few more, this is easy money rn",NO,YES,False,True,1.73,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T04:52:52.867204Z,0x6d69f08e1004c9c60e96025449bef32c4d84317c,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,traded the junkie rush for quality sleep last few days,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-11T18:04:45.901161Z,0x1cafeecd46e77e627bd23d0d86ab0383796047b8,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",Just a small correction to shake over leveraged longs... and back to 90K,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T17:50:39.051312Z,0x7f7ca250d0f236872d8dcc2eee5788582a022619,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",im belong with you sir ^^ i bought at 30 and sold 4000 shares at 10. and buy back again at 8,NO,YES,False,True,361.576,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T14:00:28.902002Z,0xc402b9199ca9ba59f5d0bbfe529c8dbe3d358017,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,any news where he will launch on? https://polymarket.com/event/what-chain-will-kanye-launch-his-token-on,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:38:24.803239Z,0xf51b8d7475630b58e9131fa8ed9cd0e1de30f798,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea only lost like 20 bucks on that. no big deal. trying to get a little in this at 33 idk if itll fill, need another fl",NO,YES,False,True,10802.3403,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T18:08:13.382482Z,0x479ed8d87bb2c39e98128e9dc0d1c1b77e874af6,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"yes please dont sell, buy more NO and fill my $40,000 order.",YES,YES,True,True,6876.0182,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T02:20:32.552039Z,0x5c6b72accf3b27ba0dbf3d5f1d340c174c90bf2e,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,if you bet $10 on what and at what price?,YES,YES,True,True,0.1,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T01:14:29.761647Z,0xfe6cb9f7331c55813b0682517e004b49dd2757d9,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"0xba2cb3168709d... sold 50,000 Yes at 68.0c ($34,000)",NO,YES,False,True,166.7112,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:36:15.366714Z,0x0a12f9aac55c204be9e9c71c6d2185d38c6d3dd4,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Yeah, no doubt Bitcoin will reach 100.000 dollars. I mean, have you seen the order book of btc?",NO,YES,False,True,423.8905,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-20T14:20:27.855002Z,0xb1d65729bd421a15c12880c62113445f602bc7ff,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",they atleast make it and you dont.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:23.802679Z,0x5230b7e02245ca2467fb0a279a10bd706ced056d,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,yo surely tip like $1 so i can buy another couple no,NO,NO,True,True,1.7352,NO,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d2ebc22a86e6389812830eba942b8cd4d4fc4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,increase,False,True,93.0883,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False,True,1188.4228,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,flip,False,True,3100.5366,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False,True,2553.1961,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,increase,False,True,14366.748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False,True,5724.53,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,increase,False,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True,True,278.2826,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False,True,2446.2921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True,True,14366.748,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False,True,3125.1672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False,True,111.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False,True,5003.9635,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False,True,11123.05,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False,True,324.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False,True,511.6,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False,True,163.5283,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,increase,False,True,16.32,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True,True,205.6635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False,True,11101.4595,FLIP,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,flip,False,True,2802.97,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False,True,689.7017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,increase,False,True,16.0222,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,flip,False,True,220.33,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True,True,16286.2937,HOLD,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True,True,1369.1843,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False,True,278.2826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True,True,1951.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False,True,8020.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True,True,5476.963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False,True,38.1071,FLIP,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False,True,200.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False,True,1608.5744,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True,True,17.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False,True,43263.2619,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,11245.4664,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False,True,255.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True,True,4.0109,HOLD,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,flip,False,True,184.1133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False,True,95.2741,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True,True,37.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,increase,False,True,582.0379,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True,True,15918.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False,True,1950.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False,True,1973.1479,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False,True,3518.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False,True,79.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True,True,1897.5816,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True,True,2125.93,HOLD,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False,True,12.7788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False,True,8374.068,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True,True,307.02,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False,True,790.8954,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False,True,1399.8848,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True,True,6137.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True,True,2040.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False,True,8373.1482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False,True,90.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False,True,2909.8109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,increase,False,True,923.27,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False,True,40.4974,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False,True,19.63,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False,True,79.94,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False,True,150.08,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..70281e12758b2251b95e78677e1cea92fd74d446 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,decrease,False +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,decrease,False +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,decrease,False +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,hold,True +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,decrease,False +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,hold,True +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,hold,True +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,decrease,False +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,decrease,False +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,decrease,False +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,decrease,False +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,decrease,False +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,decrease,False +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,decrease,False +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,decrease,False +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,decrease,False +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,decrease,False +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,decrease,False +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,decrease,False +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,decrease,False +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,If you are right that would be insane,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,decrease,False +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,hold,True +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,decrease,False +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,decrease,False +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7cd59a1bfa21e76cdfc5c01dfded2b7c2c4fda70 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,hold,True +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,hold,True +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,hold,True +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,flip,False +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,hold,True +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,hold,True +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,hold,True +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,flip,False +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,hold,True +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,hold,True +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d2ebc22a86e6389812830eba942b8cd4d4fc4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,increase,False,True,93.0883,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False,True,1188.4228,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,flip,False,True,3100.5366,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False,True,2553.1961,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,increase,False,True,14366.748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False,True,5724.53,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,increase,False,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True,True,278.2826,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False,True,2446.2921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True,True,14366.748,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False,True,3125.1672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False,True,111.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False,True,5003.9635,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False,True,11123.05,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False,True,324.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False,True,511.6,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False,True,163.5283,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,increase,False,True,16.32,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True,True,205.6635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False,True,11101.4595,FLIP,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,flip,False,True,2802.97,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False,True,689.7017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,increase,False,True,16.0222,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,flip,False,True,220.33,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True,True,16286.2937,HOLD,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True,True,1369.1843,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False,True,278.2826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True,True,1951.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False,True,8020.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True,True,5476.963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False,True,38.1071,FLIP,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False,True,200.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False,True,1608.5744,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True,True,17.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False,True,43263.2619,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,11245.4664,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False,True,255.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True,True,4.0109,HOLD,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,flip,False,True,184.1133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False,True,95.2741,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True,True,37.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,increase,False,True,582.0379,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True,True,15918.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False,True,1950.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False,True,1973.1479,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False,True,3518.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False,True,79.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True,True,1897.5816,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True,True,2125.93,HOLD,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False,True,12.7788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False,True,8374.068,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True,True,307.02,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False,True,790.8954,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False,True,1399.8848,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True,True,6137.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True,True,2040.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False,True,8373.1482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False,True,90.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False,True,2909.8109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,increase,False,True,923.27,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False,True,40.4974,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False,True,19.63,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False,True,79.94,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False,True,150.08,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d2ebc22a86e6389812830eba942b8cd4d4fc4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,increase,False,True,93.0883,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False,True,1188.4228,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,flip,False,True,3100.5366,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False,True,2553.1961,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,increase,False,True,14366.748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False,True,5724.53,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,increase,False,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True,True,278.2826,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False,True,2446.2921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True,True,14366.748,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False,True,3125.1672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False,True,111.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False,True,5003.9635,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False,True,11123.05,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False,True,324.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False,True,511.6,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False,True,163.5283,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,increase,False,True,16.32,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True,True,205.6635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False,True,11101.4595,FLIP,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,flip,False,True,2802.97,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False,True,689.7017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,increase,False,True,16.0222,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,flip,False,True,220.33,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True,True,16286.2937,HOLD,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True,True,1369.1843,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False,True,278.2826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True,True,1951.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False,True,8020.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True,True,5476.963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False,True,38.1071,FLIP,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False,True,200.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False,True,1608.5744,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True,True,17.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False,True,43263.2619,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,11245.4664,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False,True,255.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True,True,4.0109,HOLD,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,flip,False,True,184.1133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False,True,95.2741,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True,True,37.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,increase,False,True,582.0379,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True,True,15918.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False,True,1950.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False,True,1973.1479,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False,True,3518.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False,True,79.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True,True,1897.5816,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True,True,2125.93,HOLD,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False,True,12.7788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False,True,8374.068,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True,True,307.02,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False,True,790.8954,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False,True,1399.8848,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True,True,6137.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True,True,2040.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False,True,8373.1482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False,True,90.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False,True,2909.8109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,increase,False,True,923.27,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False,True,40.4974,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False,True,19.63,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False,True,79.94,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False,True,150.08,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d2ebc22a86e6389812830eba942b8cd4d4fc4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,increase,False,True,93.0883,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False,True,1188.4228,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,flip,False,True,3100.5366,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False,True,2553.1961,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,increase,False,True,14366.748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False,True,5724.53,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,increase,False,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True,True,278.2826,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False,True,2446.2921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True,True,14366.748,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False,True,3125.1672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False,True,111.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False,True,5003.9635,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False,True,11123.05,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False,True,324.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False,True,511.6,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False,True,163.5283,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,increase,False,True,16.32,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True,True,205.6635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False,True,11101.4595,FLIP,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,flip,False,True,2802.97,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False,True,689.7017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,increase,False,True,16.0222,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,flip,False,True,220.33,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True,True,16286.2937,HOLD,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True,True,1369.1843,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False,True,278.2826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True,True,1951.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False,True,8020.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True,True,5476.963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False,True,38.1071,FLIP,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False,True,200.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False,True,1608.5744,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True,True,17.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False,True,43263.2619,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,11245.4664,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False,True,255.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True,True,4.0109,HOLD,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,flip,False,True,184.1133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False,True,95.2741,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True,True,37.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,increase,False,True,582.0379,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True,True,15918.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False,True,1950.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False,True,1973.1479,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False,True,3518.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False,True,79.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True,True,1897.5816,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True,True,2125.93,HOLD,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False,True,12.7788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False,True,8374.068,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True,True,307.02,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False,True,790.8954,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False,True,1399.8848,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True,True,6137.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True,True,2040.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False,True,8373.1482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False,True,90.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False,True,2909.8109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,increase,False,True,923.27,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False,True,40.4974,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False,True,19.63,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False,True,79.94,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False,True,150.08,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d2ebc22a86e6389812830eba942b8cd4d4fc4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,increase,False,True,93.0883,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False,True,1188.4228,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,flip,False,True,3100.5366,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False,True,2553.1961,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,increase,False,True,14366.748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False,True,5724.53,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,increase,False,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True,True,278.2826,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False,True,2446.2921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True,True,14366.748,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False,True,3125.1672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False,True,111.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False,True,5003.9635,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False,True,11123.05,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False,True,324.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False,True,511.6,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False,True,163.5283,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,increase,False,True,16.32,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True,True,205.6635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False,True,11101.4595,FLIP,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,flip,False,True,2802.97,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False,True,689.7017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,increase,False,True,16.0222,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,flip,False,True,220.33,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True,True,16286.2937,HOLD,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True,True,1369.1843,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False,True,278.2826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True,True,1951.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False,True,8020.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True,True,5476.963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False,True,38.1071,FLIP,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False,True,200.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False,True,1608.5744,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True,True,17.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False,True,43263.2619,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,11245.4664,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False,True,255.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True,True,4.0109,HOLD,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,flip,False,True,184.1133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False,True,95.2741,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True,True,37.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,increase,False,True,582.0379,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True,True,15918.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False,True,1950.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False,True,1973.1479,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False,True,3518.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False,True,79.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True,True,1897.5816,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True,True,2125.93,HOLD,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False,True,12.7788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False,True,8374.068,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True,True,307.02,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False,True,790.8954,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False,True,1399.8848,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True,True,6137.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True,True,2040.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False,True,8373.1482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False,True,90.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False,True,2909.8109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,increase,False,True,923.27,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False,True,40.4974,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False,True,19.63,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False,True,79.94,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False,True,150.08,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d2ebc22a86e6389812830eba942b8cd4d4fc4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +522080,2025-02-23T22:17:27.365294Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Nope, I was specifically referring to his load. Like if he spurts or if it leaks out in a dribble",hold,hold,True,True,500.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-12T20:59:59.162061Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bitcoin about to run if it breaks $90,hold,increase,False,True,93.0883,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:54:32.486571Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"classic Ye, everything ready to launch and then you scrap it and start from scratch at least twice",hold,flip,False,True,1188.4228,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-06T06:41:13.679361Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,MSTRking is either an insider or a certified Retard,hold,flip,False,True,3100.5366,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T06:02:46.745104Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,can you guys not see the charts lol? The resistance at 99500+ is insane. And people are cashing it out at this price bef,hold,increase,False,True,484.4449,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:45:14.124056Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,limit order buying rn is like catching the last chopper out of vietnam,hold,flip,False,True,2553.1961,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:49:43.666932Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,What you are forgetting is that he might have a bigger bearish poistion and this is just a hedge xD,hold,decrease,False,True,14366.748,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:29:41.848674Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Imagine inhaling someone's last breath like a bong hit wigga,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T08:03:30.474585Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Double top on 4 hours with the second top lower, looks very promising for next 40 hours",hold,increase,False,True,14366.748,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T19:17:49.725005Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Bro it wont dip anymore, his crypto related tweets also barely had an impact apart from first day. Take your 35c for yes",hold,flip,False,True,5724.53,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-04T14:41:32.039277Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,Intelligent people usually don't make baseless claims but actually provide some sort of evidence to back their claim,hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T18:57:19.517694Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I'm all in. No standing back, no backing down. This is where legends are made. STAND YOUR GROUND! HODL!",hold,increase,False,True,2075.6963,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:49:20.675911Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,ay I managed to sell at 83c and buy back at 81c feels nice,hold,hold,True,True,278.2826,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:03:20.044108Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Original-Zyn sold 17,598 Yes at 39.6",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T11:19:59.519663Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Both keykash and tenable-dome officially out! Who¡¯s the retard?,hold,flip,False,True,2446.2921,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T18:38:17.978459Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I'll confess bros it's kinda hard not to sell,hold,decrease,False,True,744.6954,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T04:42:30.709781Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"I am also a small fish, but i did some degen trades so i am here xD",hold,hold,True,True,14366.748,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:17:34.898615Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"APPARENTLY A RANDOM GUY EMAILED COINDESK CLAIMING TO BE ON YEEZY'S TEAM, THIS IS THE SOURCE, IT'S OBVIOUSLY BULLSHIT",hold,decrease,False,True,3125.1672,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T20:57:52.073107Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,since when is falling volume bullish?,hold,decrease,False,True,7716.2955,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:39:38.656127Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,bud u mighe wana sell and save urself from losing 100k,hold,flip,False,True,111.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T20:36:25.468684Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,check the news you still think he wont launch coin?,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T00:12:19.422472Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Bro, just be happy you haven't lost as much as me.",hold,decrease,False,True,5003.9635,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T22:30:20.818141Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,never trust a bum to be on time :O,hold,flip,False,True,11123.05,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:51:37.630342Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"it's not him. we can dispute. Rules say ""or other credible accounts"" Portney just posted that it's not kanye",hold,flip,False,True,324.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +517082,2025-01-26T17:05:25.068709Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",I'm scared that the FOMC meeting will cause BTC to hit 110K.,hold,decrease,False,True,511.6,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T21:33:06.293059Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Zyn i believe in you bro you will salvage your 50k dont lose everything sell now,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:32:02.456244Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,You're conflating me making money off of racist whites (AfD) and you defending white people.,hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T21:44:06.890021Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Ye has 0 idea what he is doing confirmed. https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1893416269895876639?s=19,hold,increase,False,True,966.6325,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T15:30:25.057996Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How low can you go ?? how low can you go ??,hold,decrease,False,True,52.65,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T11:16:42.652293Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Bro you better sold your no if you dont want to lose money. I dont mind my $1 but you might reconsider yours,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:21:09.537134Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"no bros new to poly, when it resolves there will be a button to claim your money. dont sell, risks slippage",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:04:52.327894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Scam Kessler (Coindesk): Plus, there are other reasons to be suspicious: * The team leaked this to me *by accident* (th",hold,flip,False,True,163.5283,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T21:36:46.955041Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,I SAW YOU SWITCH FROM SCHIZOKANYE'S ACCOUNT IN REALTIME,hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-21T01:15:50.193501Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"For my birthday, 100k btc please -cobie, might happen sooner than i thought",hold,increase,False,True,16.32,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T13:17:09.580815Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,There is one instance he posted on 9pm utc. So we'll see. That would be nice time to buy cheap,hold,hold,True,True,205.6635,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T03:41:21.936566Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"wait if bullishonsol was an ""insider"" and he wants to sell... NO TO THE MOON lol",hold,flip,False,True,11101.4595,FLIP,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T19:22:47.995052Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,"Yeah I don¡¯t doubt it, but that¡¯s the reason the 500k market isn¡¯t at 99c rn",hold,flip,False,True,402.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +532756,2025-04-07T12:32:33.483766Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,"Well, they announced that they did not bought any, isn't this enough for the market to be resolved or it will be too ear",hold,flip,False,True,2802.97,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T22:27:32.242118Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Obviously 200k if you aren't a broke gaylord,hold,flip,False,True,30336.6707,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-25T20:50:19.150004Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,If u win tip me 100$ for supporting hahaha,hold,flip,False,True,689.7017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T16:48:48.036839Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,All those paper handed No buyers are going to make bro a millionaire,hold,increase,False,True,16.0222,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552872,2025-06-22T17:21:09.377607Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,"lmao people didn't realize that saylor sometimes post without buying the day after, happened in january, so the market i",hold,flip,False,True,220.33,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-10T23:28:13.491626Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"hey TIPS what's the account you bet with called? You're not GregoryBox because he's a nice guy, are you ExtraBased?",hold,hold,True,True,16286.2937,HOLD,qwen3:32b +523910,2025-02-21T14:34:12.636233Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,Why do you still hold the 500 bet?,hold,hold,True,True,1369.1843,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T09:55:11.768492Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,If the chart follows the same pattern we will be under 96k around 12:00 GMT,hold,decrease,False,True,278.2826,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T06:29:45.499634Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,looks like im the last one here,hold,hold,True,True,1951.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T16:36:59.330765Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Has none of the yes buyers had to wait months for a Ye release??,hold,flip,False,True,8020.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T21:27:23.987973Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"Thanks, Fuing, for selling me 20k NO at 6 cents. You are the best. Literally the best pet",hold,hold,True,True,5476.963,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-25T10:30:29.462166Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"noers you should totally sell, i'd love to buy the shares for cheapers :3",hold,flip,False,True,38.1071,FLIP,qwen3:32b +520619,2025-02-02T12:12:52.834334Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,Please buy more YES for no to be cheaper so i can buy more of it,hold,flip,False,True,200.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-26T00:10:32.717272Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"I trusted in american polls, but I guess you learn from mistakes",hold,decrease,False,True,4713.7951,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-26T15:13:00.153282Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Buying yes with this chart setup is high risk.,hold,decrease,False,True,1608.5744,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T12:33:47.561931Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,And yet you sold out half of your position,hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:59:07.968283Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,Can someone please explain clearly in simple English what's happening? Some people are saying he just posted and hasn't ,hold,hold,True,True,17.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-16T14:47:24.170121Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,"part of me wanted to see the dot chart just so i could flip to YES again, I prefer it when YES wins.",hold,flip,False,True,43263.2619,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T18:51:35.758618Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,the fat blocks you see are yes holders trying to leave. dont be the exit liquidity,hold,flip,False,True,11245.4664,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T10:37:37.040894Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"only no in comments, people are still buying yes",hold,flip,False,True,255.31,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:04:56.287175Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"We shall soon see if that is true, this market is too much of a mess for me.",hold,hold,True,True,4.0109,HOLD,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T04:41:03.287367Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,I don¡¯t think there are any but some people alluded to the top NO holders giving off insider vibes since this is their ,hold,flip,False,True,184.1133,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T19:44:44.969091Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"@Guwop, what's your main account? I saw you sold all of your shares",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-06-02T09:15:35.828146Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,Idgaf for 30$ but it's so unreasonable to have this big difference in last day of bet when no announcement was posted ye,hold,decrease,False,True,30.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +521634,2025-02-09T15:16:44.919374Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,in between there were times when he missed posting same day after posting screenshot of previouds holding,hold,hold,True,True,142.2751,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-12T11:02:55.476735Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","Aight, I'll just have to cut my loses and move on...",hold,decrease,False,True,95.2741,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T03:54:50.289999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How much do they pay you to change teams?,hold,flip,False,True,30.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T05:51:33.132952Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You're scared you're going to be contacted for tax evasion? HAHAHA. Good luck with your taxes, loser",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T21:38:15.820429Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,lol this new guy is a scammer who wanna push the price of yes,hold,flip,False,True,40.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T08:40:58.474276Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bowbow is a case study of market impact,hold,hold,True,True,37.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T16:53:24.252442Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I think some people underestimate the psychological barrier 100000 repressents. Most people start to sell at the 99500 t,hold,increase,False,True,582.0379,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T01:32:05.661789Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Lol, why are you kissing up to whites? You stood up for him and said ""Bro did not say that"". He then replied ""Dont worry",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:11:28.817124Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"you're mad that they're an interracial couple? WAHHH, cry more",hold,flip,False,True,500.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T15:55:27.340766Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"If kanye could stick to his will, I would buy every one of his albums.Seriously, I'm already listening to his songs and ",hold,hold,True,True,15918.65,HOLD,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T00:58:48.338297Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,You might be a rich man tomorrow bud. Wishing you the most luck.,hold,flip,False,True,871.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T02:42:12.153805Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"yea agrreed, can we get yes back up 60c pleaseeee",hold,flip,False,True,1950.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T05:01:40.650171Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,How long does it usually take for them to finalize?,hold,hold,True,True,28198.3646,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-24T08:02:43.261236Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"You are so gullible bro, buying high selling low as always",hold,flip,False,True,5533.7285,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-05T11:14:30.425085Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,What makes you even think buying no at 50c is good r/r?,hold,flip,False,True,1973.1479,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T17:34:56.599679Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,very weak buy hands on BTC chart,hold,hold,True,True,171.3146,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-12-01T00:19:27.954698Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"wait when it resolves, then you claim 100% of the money. dont sell",hold,hold,True,True,2499.5772,HOLD,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-26T21:18:35.170621Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"? Source, they buy every 7 days",hold,increase,False,True,400.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-24T22:08:27.233662Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,yes i want ppl to buy NO obviously,hold,flip,False,True,3518.6,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522549,2025-02-13T18:09:16.944829Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,So do people think it will resolve to no because the company is not called microstrategy?,hold,flip,False,True,79.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +557759,2025-07-06T14:16:10.805298Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,"I bet top 3 holders will be buying new cars with proceeds from winning. So degen 911, else propably second hand good car",hold,hold,True,True,1897.5816,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T05:57:08.141196Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,they are just making a new merch site because the shopify got banned,hold,hold,True,True,2125.93,HOLD,qwen3:32b +537132,2025-04-20T22:11:44.517768Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,If you are right that would be insane,hold,flip,False,True,12.7788,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-03-01T05:16:55.595999Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"Sunk costs can interfere with people's judgment, and Kanye scared everyone. He might have genuinely wanted to launch a t",hold,decrease,False,True,8374.068,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-22T06:03:27.854919Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Stock market work that day go see retardio, on Veteran Day institutions dont works but US Market yes, what a stupid ppl ",hold,hold,True,True,307.02,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:24:42.848927Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"97k floor formed, all the best on the final day..this will be fun",hold,hold,True,True,3.84,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T19:32:20.944804Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,@JaguarTrading we lost another soldier,hold,decrease,False,True,5320.89,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T23:12:27.592975Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Good night folks and to the ones thinking some crypto retards bought ye's twitter enjoy your day off from kindergarten,hold,flip,False,True,790.8954,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T19:12:11.810399Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,You lost yourself a lot of money.*,hold,flip,False,True,1399.8848,FLIP,qwen3:32b +547239,2025-05-31T17:12:00.273592Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,"Nah Mikey ain't buying this week, BTC in free-fall and hasn't been tweeting his usual AI-cartoonish pictures, YES-gang d",hold,hold,True,True,1.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T15:25:29.260718Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Stop the spam, do as you wish and let us be",hold,hold,True,True,6137.3629,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:13:11.954966Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"""As long as there is cash in my pocket I will never stop buying NO"" - meat ball 2d ago)",hold,increase,False,True,7235.835,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T02:05:47.651257Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"Hey mates, can anyone explain me what's going on right now? I'm not that knowledgeable on crypto (just here to make some",hold,hold,True,True,2040.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T13:41:56.171846Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"the last 5 hours will be the easiest to hold, the NO will probably be at 95c",hold,flip,False,True,7205.6135,FLIP,qwen3:32b +528620,2025-03-24T03:08:50.053441Z,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-just-raised-711m-buy-165205050.html According to this, the the proposal Strategy",hold,hold,True,True,10.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T11:04:36.755106Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Guy thinks he is the 'quant' from the big short,hold,flip,False,True,4116.9017,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-24T23:40:13.620994Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Could this be a dead cat bounce?,hold,decrease,False,True,8373.1482,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T22:25:47.795151Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,he transfered them to so called insiders,hold,decrease,False,True,435.3255,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-25T23:15:41.297066Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"joke went right over your head, i'm mimicking all the yes holders. I'm sitting comfy, thanks for the free money while cr",hold,hold,True,True,7427.9986,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T23:01:33.224585Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,How is that possible??? Maybe it's just a delay,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T16:27:13.240454Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,"if we can just cross the $101k barrier, we'll certainly succeed!",hold,increase,False,True,264.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-30T07:48:42.345967Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,it's a pump! we'll make you shake,hold,increase,False,True,208.4243,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T03:29:59.359476Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,ITS DO OR DIE FOR ME. NO BACKING OUT NO BACKING DOWN,hold,increase,False,True,4116.9017,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +545512,2025-05-26T09:29:16.017589Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,"Lol how fast we have two market at the same time, now to JUNE 2 ?",hold,hold,True,True,689.7017,HOLD,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:39:37.593792Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,HES GONNA CRASH OUTT LAUNCH WILL BE POST PONED,hold,flip,False,True,90.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-27T18:26:53.802272Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,I cannot belive they let me buy at 70c,hold,flip,False,True,2909.8109,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-27T06:56:52.535396Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"This ""black person"" believes it's ridiculous to be ""conspiracy minded"" as a ""black person"" in the United States LOL, he'",hold,flip,False,True,100.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T02:51:57.821301Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"euan right here made a goated move buying no at 15c, while i was waiting for the price to touch the 3-5c zone and missed",hold,increase,False,True,923.27,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T17:33:30.147915Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,Bought 81 No at 74; Sold 81 No at 50,hold,flip,False,True,40.4974,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T11:35:22.368249Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Kanye officially announced coin will be launched today,hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T12:59:14.217168Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,but he said all the other coins are fake and there were many fake meme coins about him,hold,flip,False,True,47.23,FLIP,qwen3:32b +539966,2025-05-05T11:39:07.983512Z,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,22 minute to panic starts ????????,hold,flip,False,True,19.63,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T18:33:51.957167Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,If they really ran his account they would drop a link to a shitcoin and cash out,hold,flip,False,True,2434.786,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512600,2024-11-29T11:56:50.916381Z,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,No holders are doing this all wrong. You're meant to buy LOW and sell HIGH. Not the other way around.,hold,flip,False,True,969.0409,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-20T19:48:37.106522Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,"don't lie, several channels said that he will release it, we just have to wait a little bit",hold,flip,False,True,7235.835,FLIP,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-21T09:03:53.878409Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Can you send link or just nothing happened,hold,decrease,False,True,79.94,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-22T00:08:40.149574Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,Yeah waiting for deposit. People expected launch today. Dont think he would tweet like this before launching,hold,decrease,False,True,4892.05,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +522080,2025-02-23T02:33:32.200355Z,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,kanye if your reading this release it on march 1st to make more money,hold,flip,False,True,1.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +512662,2024-11-24T16:33:57.655234Z,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?","No 100k in November, maybe after 10 dec when microsoft go bananas and use btc as reserv",hold,flip,False,True,150.08,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9b20dd0c7cd7df84f5f720a82e3b71893c3c246e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.8699999999999999,0.9995,0.12950000000000017,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.875,0.9995,0.12450000000000006,UP,0.9573213786360992,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,12,DOWN,qwen3:32b +2,0.535,0.01225,-0.52275,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,12,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..713102dfaddbaf23eb117922195e87e54c51d365 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/crypto/qwen3_polymarket_crypto_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.31,0.40479166666666666,0.09479166666666666,UP,0.9187674311553979,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,3,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.31,0.618125,0.30812500000000004,UP,0.41669414270797717,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,64,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.475,0.5179861111111111,0.04298611111111117,UP,0.3279092800898337,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",8,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.8299999999999998,0.8802916666666668,0.050291666666666957,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.535,0.5214583333333334,-0.013541666666666674,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.47499999999999987,0.6409722222222222,0.1659722222222223,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",11,UP,qwen3:32b +6,0.865,0.02315789473684211,-0.8418421052631578,DOWN,0.9916783184489754,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,39,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.83,0.863125,0.03312500000000007,UP,0.4465102666399668,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +8,0.31,0.22020833333333334,-0.08979166666666666,DOWN,0.62780961768666,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,350,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.6500000000000001,0.9918333333333335,0.3418333333333333,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,14,DOWN,qwen3:32b +10,0.555,0.8619374999999999,0.30693749999999986,UP,0.9441669617503181,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,7,UP,qwen3:32b +11,0.255,0.18781250000000002,-0.06718749999999998,DOWN,0.9846886259840907,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",5,UP,qwen3:32b +12,0.31,0.22791666666666668,-0.08208333333333331,DOWN,0.8096756154032106,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,251,UP,qwen3:32b +13,0.555,0.2547916666666667,-0.30020833333333335,DOWN,0.5771517562512655,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,9,UP,qwen3:32b +14,0.555,0.8150000000000001,0.26,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +15,0.65,0.8235416666666667,0.1735416666666667,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,4,DOWN,qwen3:32b +16,0.865,0.24291666666666667,-0.6220833333333333,DOWN,0.9898429839307412,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,40,UP,qwen3:32b +17,0.475,0.4419444444444445,-0.033055555555555505,DOWN,0.953184627780365,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",8,UP,qwen3:32b +18,0.475,0.23930555555555555,-0.23569444444444443,DOWN,0.7960100005102301,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",2,UP,qwen3:32b +19,0.8699999999999999,0.9893055555555557,0.11930555555555578,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,10,DOWN,qwen3:32b +20,0.555,0.785,0.22999999999999998,UP,0.9898504513405488,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,6,DOWN,qwen3:32b +21,0.255,0.30864583333333334,0.05364583333333334,UP,0.9600912582489103,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",50,UP,qwen3:32b +22,0.255,0.01647222222222222,-0.23852777777777778,DOWN,0.6833953307053817,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",4,UP,qwen3:32b +23,0.475,0.16,-0.31499999999999995,DOWN,0.9733240782962093,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",17,UP,qwen3:32b +24,0.8149999999999998,0.8810416666666666,0.06604166666666678,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +25,0.8649999999999998,0.25354166666666667,-0.6114583333333331,DOWN,0.9127568034099188,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,22,DOWN,qwen3:32b +26,0.915,0.7643749999999999,-0.15062500000000012,DOWN,0.9508074142094657,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,17,UP,qwen3:32b +27,0.25499999999999995,0.30125,0.04625000000000007,UP,0.5438239038303843,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",22,UP,qwen3:32b +28,0.705,0.7214583333333332,0.01645833333333324,UP,0.9486613801763552,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,11,UP,qwen3:32b +29,0.875,0.9315000000000001,0.056500000000000106,UP,0.7817421761105903,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +30,0.75,0.7820833333333334,0.03208333333333335,UP,0.8130291913641734,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?,8,DOWN,qwen3:32b +31,0.21,0.13791666666666666,-0.07208333333333333,DOWN,0.5307719677187008,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,679,UP,qwen3:32b +32,0.21000000000000002,0.07933333333333333,-0.1306666666666667,DOWN,3.743181585114546e-05,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,336,UP,qwen3:32b +33,0.6500000000000001,0.9724375,0.3224374999999998,UP,0.49093952619432635,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +34,0.31,0.523125,0.21312499999999995,UP,0.6434555564340376,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,7,DOWN,qwen3:32b +35,0.8149999999999996,0.22583333333333336,-0.5891666666666663,DOWN,0.9696015599850502,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,99,UP,qwen3:32b +36,0.81,0.45208333333333334,-0.3579166666666667,DOWN,0.7606482754233128,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,17,UP,qwen3:32b +37,0.915,0.14200000000000004,-0.773,DOWN,0.20245675694641746,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?,25,DOWN,qwen3:32b +38,0.555,0.8160416666666667,0.2610416666666666,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,7,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +39,0.535,0.514375,-0.020625000000000004,DOWN,0.8118204637982104,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +40,0.5549999999999999,0.27666666666666667,-0.27833333333333327,DOWN,0.5617336610747528,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,20,UP,qwen3:32b +41,0.8650000000000003,0.38833333333333336,-0.47666666666666696,DOWN,0.5118533239828557,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,63,DOWN,qwen3:32b +42,0.535,0.028088235294117653,-0.5069117647058824,DOWN,0.9207113831290207,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,39,UP,qwen3:32b +43,0.21000000000000002,0.0740625,-0.13593750000000002,DOWN,0.6175787852985266,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,10,DOWN,qwen3:32b +44,0.17499999999999996,0.013145833333333332,-0.16185416666666663,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",3,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +45,0.555,0.36916666666666664,-0.1858333333333334,DOWN,0.9950721008319131,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,17,UP,qwen3:32b +46,0.52,0.57875,0.05874999999999997,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +47,0.5549999999999999,0.39649999999999996,-0.15849999999999997,DOWN,0.2235241862380635,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,165,UP,qwen3:32b +48,0.25499999999999995,0.23802083333333335,-0.0169791666666666,DOWN,0.9015431334708889,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?",13,UP,qwen3:32b +49,0.705,0.9796315789473684,0.27463157894736845,UP,0.108953416220502,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,23,UP,qwen3:32b +50,0.175,0.029972222222222226,-0.14502777777777776,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +51,0.555,0.2697916666666667,-0.28520833333333334,DOWN,0.9396201807469889,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?,5,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +52,0.8100000000000003,0.48104166666666665,-0.32895833333333363,DOWN,0.3310552857610006,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,15,UP,qwen3:32b +53,0.535,0.9047916666666668,0.36979166666666674,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,4,DOWN,qwen3:32b +54,0.65,0.84375,0.19374999999999998,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +55,0.5549999999999999,0.7454166666666667,0.1904166666666668,UP,0.4025855862403268,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,20,UP,qwen3:32b +56,0.83,0.8649999999999999,0.03499999999999992,UP,0.9988744723389832,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +57,0.65,0.8093750000000001,0.15937500000000004,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,4,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +58,0.865,0.40791666666666665,-0.45708333333333334,DOWN,0.31531538851480406,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +59,0.535,0.7018749999999999,0.16687499999999988,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +60,0.8149999999999998,0.8279166666666665,0.012916666666666687,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?,12,DOWN,qwen3:32b +61,0.555,0.9886666666666666,0.43366666666666653,UP,0.8253859400955967,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?,43,UP,qwen3:32b +62,0.6500000000000001,0.8375,0.1874999999999999,UP,0.9736030590847415,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,11,UP,qwen3:32b +63,0.175,0.023076388888888886,-0.1519236111111111,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025?",2,UP,qwen3:32b +64,0.21,0.1775,-0.0325,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +65,0.21,0.2270833333333333,0.01708333333333331,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +66,0.31,0.4390625000000001,0.12906250000000008,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +67,0.5199999999999998,0.7519375,0.23193750000000024,UP,0.8974359472479035,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,14,UP,qwen3:32b +68,0.52,0.9860999999999999,0.46609999999999985,UP,0.48003060303483347,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?,25,UP,qwen3:32b +69,0.31000000000000005,0.07127777777777779,-0.23872222222222228,DOWN,0.4073714999233347,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,847,UP,qwen3:32b +70,0.87,0.9556666666666667,0.08566666666666667,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +71,0.705,0.35083333333333333,-0.35416666666666663,DOWN,0.5096886166962479,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?,21,UP,qwen3:32b +72,0.21,0.3988541666666667,0.18885416666666668,UP,0.5938711973649154,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Kanye launch a coin in February?,1117,UP,qwen3:32b +73,0.8100000000000005,0.3535714285714286,-0.4564285714285719,DOWN,0.5340221460097394,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,86,UP,qwen3:32b +74,0.30999999999999994,0.8239583333333332,0.5139583333333333,UP,0.42017148417240463,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?,18,UP,qwen3:32b +75,0.8100000000000002,0.4502083333333333,-0.35979166666666684,DOWN,0.8772674380100913,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +76,0.4749999999999999,0.11917499999999999,-0.35582499999999995,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,"Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?",20,DOWN,qwen3:32b +77,0.5199999999999999,0.9583333333333334,0.43833333333333346,UP,0.1485379022243856,UP,NEUTRAL,True,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +78,0.65,0.8275,0.1775,UP,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?,4,DOWN,qwen3:32b +79,0.875,0.9869999999999999,0.11199999999999988,UP,0.6374457782438047,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?,27,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/commitment_validity_polymarket_economics.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/commitment_validity_polymarket_economics.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83a7ae59aedf2a33056af0632e8964478331d151 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/commitment_validity_polymarket_economics.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "polymarket/economics", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 129, + "n_wrong_bettors": 80, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.6202, + "n_directional": 70, + "n_follows_commitment": 27, + "n_follows_truth": 43, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.3857, + "binom_p": 0.9793, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 110, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.5357, + "n": 28, + "median_position_size": 5.0, + "binom_p": 0.4253, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.4444, + "n": 27, + "median_position_size": 109.75, + "binom_p": 0.779, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.4444, + "n": 27, + "median_position_size": 702.22, + "binom_p": 0.779, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.4643, + "n": 28, + "median_position_size": 8864.5, + "binom_p": 0.7142, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": -0.0714, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.6768, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4cfffae9506d799800bba1b90fbde566016f602e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +553813,2025-10-29T03:53:13.815872Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"im not taking advice from anybody who lost $10k on this Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes at 21c",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-03T23:38:23.147677Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I bought because of u so wish me luck,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T14:49:14.912043Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Market anticipation feels way to high for a just ¡®we leave the door open for a september cut¡¯ . I bought some more as ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-12T13:13:49.940549Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Thank you someone understands it, yes it definetely is much higher just run a EV model add 10k exposure to BTC and you w",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T11:12:13.557989Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Brooo. I forgot 1 share = $ 1. Guess if I win anything today, I am gonna tip this guy something. So pray for me. lol",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T01:56:22.828961Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,if u $1 donate i will buy more 50+,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T12:09:37.782836Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Kingk8 is someone who works at the FED and wants to make quick money¡­ Nobody bets $500,000 like that without solid info",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T15:08:52.820226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Mr. Drax, your analysis has likely made me close to $15k now. Alas, I have no more money to invest. As you are a wealthy",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T02:30:50.452083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,So im right you can bet $100 on no change and make $5k . i want to bet $1k on it so bad. Ill wait till last day.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T14:06:57.881434Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"After today¡¯s revisions to the nonfarm payrolls, it really feels like the U.S. economy is tipping into the early stages",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T14:16:52.423113Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,this guy is so based he couldve dumped $2k profit,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T01:10:04.934809Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Doesn't match the current price. should be 2.1c, but its 1.7 rn",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:07:47.605306Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,he's doing $10k weeks obviously he has some sort of automated system that i would assume we don't have access to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T15:25:28.751325Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Zion you have to lay off the coke. Chill baby its all golden.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-13T05:44:39.563822Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"You can convince yourself anything is a good bet. Objectively you¡¯re just not reading unemployment data, and inflation ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-10T04:46:43.357089Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,government jobs that shouldn't exist anyway.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T20:15:02.252091Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"October pause guys were making the right argument, just applying it to the wrong month.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T17:36:52.937146Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Daddy i already wanna thank you for giving me 300 dollars. You want me to come over to your room tonight ?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T15:04:03.973756Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yep, when I entered this position i was fully expecting to go for the 36x or the full loss. momma aint raise no bitch!",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T15:22:10.086402Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,it's a small club. and none of us ain't part of it.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T22:21:07.436583Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"there really is no reason to cut in my opinion, we're still far off from 2% inflation rate and there needs to be more ti",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T16:09:47.442287Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"As for a potential rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to make a 25 basis point cut in the fe",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T15:26:42.170379Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You hedged, but you might loose $100K, if there's 50 decrease",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-27T09:15:29.465275Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,What happened to the stocks (pre-market)? S&P 500 technology down 5 procent,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-26T17:50:33.474596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Why not buy some no to no change, covers any change.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-08T14:10:35.192424Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Was blatantly obvious no change when Powell spoke last month. After that data yesterday, it¡¯s 99c",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T07:59:00.330383Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i hope ur $1 become 1k brother,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T12:38:16.238781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Blackrock sold $1B of btc! NO CUTS TODAY,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T05:36:13.672719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Standard Chartered revised its outlook and now expects a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps, citing a sharp weakening in the l",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:25:29.273475Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ask chat gbt to calculate for you with payroll revitio,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-07T15:33:49.482227Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I know you will probably not read this but Freakybob died for your sins. Freakybob cares about you and wants to see you ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T17:41:11.702397Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Probability of a FED cut has decreased from 92% this Friday to around 84% today. Weird that this market hasn't followed,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T08:33:59.022983Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,idiots holding no change dumbasses look at this burn your money President Trump expects the Federal Reserve to deliver ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T04:07:00.901764Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,True.. I think this Fed decision thing has become too political now. Anyway lets hope for the best.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T22:39:46.055094Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"However, I sold my position in the No Change. I'll come back after Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-18T17:03:30.528387Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I¡¯ve read quite a few FOMC speeches where they explain their thought process. I guess I missed the one where they talke,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:02:40.306641Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If cpi came out under 2.5 I would have dumped my no change shares. No change has a way higher chance of winning than 50 ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-07T17:01:46.306933Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no change is out of the question,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:59:06.144296Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You have one hour to sell and make your money back at a slight loss or you will lose it all but in your case it¡¯s only ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T20:35:43.803718Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"put 5 dollars in increase, last option, and you'll get $5k if you are right. 1% chance it might happen but the gains is ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:20:23.397775Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hope your $400 goes a long way brother!,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-10T23:50:47.462125Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,cause I value the likelyhood of them cutting by 50bps at 10% for march and not 0.x%. And yes I could have sold it for +1,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-12T23:08:49.403056Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,well you lost your dollar its over mate,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T01:06:27.324991Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I sold guys im sorry but inflation might delay this cut , either way I already profit thanks",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T09:25:52.850274Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Spiritually I¡¯m with ¡°No Change¡± gang. But things work differently.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T05:44:43.447612Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"No, look at the cme fed watch tool. It could go either way. I just took my most educated guess from being in the indus",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T06:01:02.403401Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,9 dollar pnl.. your betting with bum change. relax..,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-08T21:37:20.156439Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"List of investments banks predicting 25bps: Blackrock, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, W",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-07T15:30:38.419288Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"And I sold 5k shares like a fool, rip",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T12:41:53.711986Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Keep getting rekt on no change, good odds tho. Gl",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:08:34.227745Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you had to listen to the analysts..,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T04:02:09.731308Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"taking public money, to make big bigger, to counter China.... ""THEY WILL OWN NOTHING & WILL BE HAPPY",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T11:07:21.855092Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I was being sarcastic here, I hold 15K of no hopefully will win",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:36:27.973267Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"JustWakingUp sold 14,000 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 8.1 $1,129 SEND IT.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T03:35:00.376548Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"no offense, but Chat GPT ain't that reliable. lol",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-24T15:07:17.906306Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,96% chance it will be 25 decrease,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-06-18T18:06:15.505464Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,get in my profile and click 'gift' button. I don't need money a lot. Just a few will really be helpful. thank you :),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:39:53.065564Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,@duckduck lmk when polymsrket adds o/u Gaza death count so I can put ur life savings on it,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T15:55:36.766783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You thought Kamala was going to win and lost over $40k on that bet ¡­ sheeesh making me want to sell my $15 bet here,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T15:24:45.831691Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"200k tokens on ""no change"" is crazy. You put $8k to win $200k. insane",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T16:06:15.669461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"i hate links here. CryptoScams Everywhere. @polymarket fix it. (or are you gaining from mixing some scam links here, dis",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-14T17:44:22.114748Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I meant for no change, no idea why I bought increase lmao",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-10T16:48:11.719766Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I bought because I respect basedboi's bet. Let's ride,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-24T20:34:09.602525Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I see, thank you, nothing to worry about then",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T11:14:03.812335Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,sent $ 0.88 :D and now pray for us. I am gonna tip more. lol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-05T13:37:33.471772Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone please tip me something I'm in so loss already ??????????????,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-19T18:08:03.319871Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T16:36:11.499979Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The past few months I have bet against The Fed holding the rate, and I lost every time. Today I change my position.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-11T19:59:50.410022Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Somebody please ask him not to tilt. Please stop him before he does something terrible!!!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..82c67ce75afc7423d29221fc8c0e3bccabc27684 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,81 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +553813,2025-10-29T03:53:13.815872Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"im not taking advice from anybody who lost $10k on this Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes at 21c",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-03T23:38:23.147677Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I bought because of u so wish me luck,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T14:49:14.912043Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Market anticipation feels way to high for a just ¡®we leave the door open for a september cut¡¯ . I bought some more as ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-12T13:13:49.940549Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Thank you someone understands it, yes it definetely is much higher just run a EV model add 10k exposure to BTC and you w",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T11:12:13.557989Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Brooo. I forgot 1 share = $ 1. Guess if I win anything today, I am gonna tip this guy something. So pray for me. lol",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T01:56:22.828961Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,if u $1 donate i will buy more 50+,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T12:09:37.782836Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Kingk8 is someone who works at the FED and wants to make quick money¡­ Nobody bets $500,000 like that without solid info",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T15:08:52.820226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Mr. Drax, your analysis has likely made me close to $15k now. Alas, I have no more money to invest. As you are a wealthy",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T02:30:50.452083Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,So im right you can bet $100 on no change and make $5k . i want to bet $1k on it so bad. Ill wait till last day.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T14:06:57.881434Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"After today¡¯s revisions to the nonfarm payrolls, it really feels like the U.S. economy is tipping into the early stages",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T14:16:52.423113Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,this guy is so based he couldve dumped $2k profit,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T01:10:04.934809Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Doesn't match the current price. should be 2.1c, but its 1.7 rn",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:07:47.605306Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,he's doing $10k weeks obviously he has some sort of automated system that i would assume we don't have access to,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T15:25:28.751325Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Zion you have to lay off the coke. Chill baby its all golden.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-13T05:44:39.563822Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"You can convince yourself anything is a good bet. Objectively you¡¯re just not reading unemployment data, and inflation ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-10T04:46:43.357089Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,government jobs that shouldn't exist anyway.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T20:15:02.252091Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"October pause guys were making the right argument, just applying it to the wrong month.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T17:36:52.937146Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Daddy i already wanna thank you for giving me 300 dollars. You want me to come over to your room tonight ?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T15:04:03.973756Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"yep, when I entered this position i was fully expecting to go for the 36x or the full loss. momma aint raise no bitch!",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T15:22:10.086402Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,it's a small club. and none of us ain't part of it.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T22:21:07.436583Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"there really is no reason to cut in my opinion, we're still far off from 2% inflation rate and there needs to be more ti",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T16:09:47.442287Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"As for a potential rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to make a 25 basis point cut in the fe",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T15:26:42.170379Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You hedged, but you might loose $100K, if there's 50 decrease",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-27T09:15:29.465275Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,What happened to the stocks (pre-market)? S&P 500 technology down 5 procent,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-26T17:50:33.474596Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Why not buy some no to no change, covers any change.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-08T14:10:35.192424Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Was blatantly obvious no change when Powell spoke last month. After that data yesterday, it¡¯s 99c",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T07:59:00.330383Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i hope ur $1 become 1k brother,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T12:38:16.238781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Blackrock sold $1B of btc! NO CUTS TODAY,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T05:36:13.672719Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Standard Chartered revised its outlook and now expects a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps, citing a sharp weakening in the l",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:25:29.273475Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ask chat gbt to calculate for you with payroll revitio,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-07T15:33:49.482227Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I know you will probably not read this but Freakybob died for your sins. Freakybob cares about you and wants to see you ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T17:41:11.702397Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Probability of a FED cut has decreased from 92% this Friday to around 84% today. Weird that this market hasn't followed,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T08:33:59.022983Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,idiots holding no change dumbasses look at this burn your money President Trump expects the Federal Reserve to deliver ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T04:07:00.901764Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,True.. I think this Fed decision thing has become too political now. Anyway lets hope for the best.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T22:39:46.055094Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"However, I sold my position in the No Change. I'll come back after Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-18T17:03:30.528387Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I¡¯ve read quite a few FOMC speeches where they explain their thought process. I guess I missed the one where they talke,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:02:40.306641Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If cpi came out under 2.5 I would have dumped my no change shares. No change has a way higher chance of winning than 50 ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-07T17:01:46.306933Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no change is out of the question,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:59:06.144296Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,You have one hour to sell and make your money back at a slight loss or you will lose it all but in your case it¡¯s only ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T20:35:43.803718Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"put 5 dollars in increase, last option, and you'll get $5k if you are right. 1% chance it might happen but the gains is ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:20:23.397775Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hope your $400 goes a long way brother!,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-10T23:50:47.462125Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,cause I value the likelyhood of them cutting by 50bps at 10% for march and not 0.x%. And yes I could have sold it for +1,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-12T23:08:49.403056Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,well you lost your dollar its over mate,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T01:06:27.324991Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I sold guys im sorry but inflation might delay this cut , either way I already profit thanks",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T09:25:52.850274Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Spiritually I¡¯m with ¡°No Change¡± gang. But things work differently.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T05:44:43.447612Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"No, look at the cme fed watch tool. It could go either way. I just took my most educated guess from being in the indus",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T06:01:02.403401Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,9 dollar pnl.. your betting with bum change. relax..,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-08T21:37:20.156439Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"List of investments banks predicting 25bps: Blackrock, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, W",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-07T15:30:38.419288Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"And I sold 5k shares like a fool, rip",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-16T15:16:47.866934Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"IF YOUR NAME ONLY STARTS WITH C TIP ME $6.66 TO WIN THIS BET OR LOSE ALL,I HAVE A BLACK MOLE UNDER MY TONGUE",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T12:41:53.711986Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Keep getting rekt on no change, good odds tho. Gl",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:08:34.227745Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you had to listen to the analysts..,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T04:02:09.731308Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"taking public money, to make big bigger, to counter China.... ""THEY WILL OWN NOTHING & WILL BE HAPPY",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T11:07:21.855092Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I was being sarcastic here, I hold 15K of no hopefully will win",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:36:27.973267Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"JustWakingUp sold 14,000 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 8.1 $1,129 SEND IT.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T03:35:00.376548Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"no offense, but Chat GPT ain't that reliable. lol",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-24T15:07:17.906306Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,96% chance it will be 25 decrease,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-06-18T18:06:15.505464Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,get in my profile and click 'gift' button. I don't need money a lot. Just a few will really be helpful. thank you :),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:39:53.065564Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,@duckduck lmk when polymsrket adds o/u Gaza death count so I can put ur life savings on it,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T15:55:36.766783Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You thought Kamala was going to win and lost over $40k on that bet ¡­ sheeesh making me want to sell my $15 bet here,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T15:24:45.831691Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"200k tokens on ""no change"" is crazy. You put $8k to win $200k. insane",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T16:06:15.669461Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"i hate links here. CryptoScams Everywhere. @polymarket fix it. (or are you gaining from mixing some scam links here, dis",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-14T17:44:22.114748Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I meant for no change, no idea why I bought increase lmao",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-05T18:36:58.514844Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bro How come you lost only $500 while I have lost almost $30k?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-10T16:48:11.719766Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I bought because I respect basedboi's bet. Let's ride,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-24T20:34:09.602525Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I see, thank you, nothing to worry about then",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T11:14:03.812335Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,sent $ 0.88 :D and now pray for us. I am gonna tip more. lol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-05T13:37:33.471772Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone please tip me something I'm in so loss already ??????????????,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-19T18:08:03.319871Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T16:36:11.499979Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"The past few months I have bet against The Fed holding the rate, and I lost every time. Today I change my position.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-11T19:59:50.410022Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Somebody please ask him not to tilt. Please stop him before he does something terrible!!!,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b5802a7acf3a9503fdee942190518c1abfd02fc2 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,210 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-10T22:02:52.319614Z,0xbebeb2a09639cd351b8c509778adc5191d9b6575,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Don't worry bro ..Keep buying more ..this month is no change,YES,YES,True,True,73.74,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-31T23:42:53.922753Z,0x2b988758c76728c9ffddfc0c9aadef67599cfdec,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The Sept 9 revision concerns April 2024 to March 2025 data,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-14T08:44:20.680337Z,0xd8e5a6feb2688b42f36be52e3fe620e92385226a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Stock market is a completely irrelevant metric, labour data was weak and rates are above neutral. If the Fed holds it¡¯l",NO,NO,True,True,43.5,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-16T21:16:59.100218Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Oh I agree, looking for that high when he pulls another 7 digits outa thin air. Haha",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T10:39:50.285172Z,0x41e5cd273832fd597b55611b9f08a720d59f6bc9,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Probably because all your comments are fn garbage and add 0 value.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,30.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T04:07:00.901764Z,0x96a57c10e24f900972a0996a79dc4372775c1bed,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,True.. I think this Fed decision thing has become too political now. Anyway lets hope for the best.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:32:11.075232Z,0x0df6ecfd2f2c47b89b018ca04c11748087c07af2,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change makes the most sense but I¡¯m switching over to 50 bip gang,YES,NO,False,True,32.8878,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-07-29T12:43:19.103917Z,0xb345cd3f3265b406ed77f74e3aa9393b3e3d6c2e,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Well visit bulletservers .net for vps domain and servers :P,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T09:39:14.045689Z,0x0c26dc86bf10d807b9319db3c88099cc2772a2c3,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"So the Fed will cut into rising inflation because of political pressure, cause a crisis and then get blamed by Trump? Ma",YES,NO,False,True,2819.59,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T05:25:17.954556Z,0x2ceeadbf2ade6b9fa15974e9d1c89fb9e01b2c08,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,any one plesase tip me give some money as tip please i am from india bey seeing this comment who will not donate they wi,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T16:09:47.442287Z,0x474b2823f950d448a7afcf7a93e38896af3360ee,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"As for a potential rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to make a 25 basis point cut in the fe",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T04:51:43.045263Z,0x6c77ae4f0ef9dd5ab1dbd83293aeb2cb8bd59ad8,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"you got a better one, zoomer broccoli head?",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T17:47:56.458666Z,0xc01f8138dc280e9769398e5b99348cdc47f08322,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"no jobs unwinding. USA have so much illegals, waiting to become ""employeed""... there is no real ""unemployment"". only wha",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-03T00:48:44.257977Z,0x15c9881e16850998bd0309308b934c289e41315a,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Anyone betting yes on ""no change"" hates money",NO,NO,True,True,436.7808,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T16:11:54.132068Z,0x23bc528318c477f31f3af758ffa84a5d41bd867e,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Give me a 7. Give me 11. Give me a 50bps cut,YES,YES,True,True,30.5,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T13:02:35.552396Z,0x6c1d67b9a059dda6b1423cba7ac4b686b48f2042,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Many activities target employment market, leading to bad numbers.",YES,NO,False,True,18.6268,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-07T17:01:46.306933Z,0x18fc116658dc0fa7343238d4ccf336c68b32164e,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no change is out of the question,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T19:07:28.158821Z,0x8fbb676c3077acc6e10f83200830092a88bee1e8,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,K sounds good. You know we have the interwebs to verify this is total bs right??,YES,NO,False,True,11217.9123,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T05:44:43.447612Z,0x4525d3ab4f9cd309c61a193a1faeb3005e7da99c,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"No, look at the cme fed watch tool. It could go either way. I just took my most educated guess from being in the indus",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-22T19:10:52.505828Z,0xe313a18bf1929fe850f8dbc8b3ac19612b2e5b3d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There¡¯s a couple others. Why not buy ?,NO,YES,False,True,98.6336,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-08-25T19:53:19.714361Z,0x60d3f4645d56201fe35f30f1d59317e7e2dc2a41,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I think most of you will be wrong. -50 or nothing. Too late for a delicate 25,YES,NO,False,True,2709.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T21:27:46.501374Z,0x8b6521cb4bfa4006ccfe469892d8c67cdb20000c,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"you are the only guy here who gets it. 13th Sep Trump announced more possible Tarrifs against china, regarding the war i",YES,NO,False,True,231.9,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-14T17:34:02.956133Z,0xc0b6323b02117c4a86d280feab197456c9541c48,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I love ur gambling spirit. Pls quit. For ur own health & safely.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T17:08:50.045145Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,He said they should cut 50 but will end up cutting 25. You lost and are panicking commenting every 2 minutes,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-06T16:59:40.961052Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,¡°A few analysts see a case for a larger half-point cut this month so rates can better catch up to job-market conditions,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T17:41:11.702397Z,0x732b7f20b93c638bdc64a8e397aa0dac5a2ebbce,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Probability of a FED cut has decreased from 92% this Friday to around 84% today. Weird that this market hasn't followed,",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:39:02.712945Z,0x64413b61394576c4abd26656ad2a088e6e79325c,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"market will be red, powell¡¯s controlled by jews, no change is coming, i hope you bet too.",YES,YES,True,True,24213.09,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-03T16:41:25.243628Z,0x15c9881e16850998bd0309308b934c289e41315a,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you need to recommend it on the discord server,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.1486,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T02:50:58.489341Z,0x18fc116658dc0fa7343238d4ccf336c68b32164e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Intern fed kingk8 has bought again 0.5 cut ! He sits on 3 millions,YES,YES,True,True,104.82,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-30T07:08:46.787053Z,0xcd72ba05ff927c4b3cdb495675812ec60db0fc0f,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Hi can anyone tip me just a dollar, I would really appreciate it",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-12T12:42:58.599937Z,0x38036fd82dd58b3819731ba12336a8fecd3188ec,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: US inflation drops to 2.8%, coming in below expectations. It's also lower than last month's of 3.0%. CUT in",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T09:42:05.539371Z,0x96a57c10e24f900972a0996a79dc4372775c1bed,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Serious question.. what will happen to the market if Fed decides 25+bps increase?,YES,NO,False,True,18.77,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-15T12:39:29.352651Z,0x7740200dd73d5c7dc19a1f20c721162548c916bb,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Sadly I think there is the possibility that there will be no more rate cuts this year¡­,NO,NO,True,True,0.004,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T12:36:07.655164Z,0x1c06953cb119494695f838651d326005448d5a56,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ggs, couldn¡¯t even sell in time, tf is this¡­ for future reference, can you adjust slippage?",YES,NO,False,True,2395.1376,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-06T06:43:37.453809Z,0x5b0822de13f6be1a7efc233aa8bd6f3e6eff694e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Exit while you can. By now, Fed would¡¯ve signaled a hold if they were about to",NO,YES,False,True,55.8,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T12:41:53.711986Z,0xc0b6323b02117c4a86d280feab197456c9541c48,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Keep getting rekt on no change, good odds tho. Gl",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-10T15:57:53.524933Z,0x8b6521cb4bfa4006ccfe469892d8c67cdb20000c,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,did you bet $10k on no Change? What a baller,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-05T02:19:16.789546Z,0xc2bde5686b23edbd40fafc6096fa4f3e6dd37d92,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I just did my first big bet on here. Am I cooked?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,14981.17,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-27T02:04:44.910385Z,0x5ccd10865c0ea6d6c9431f4c0d3268a041495dc5,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"In any case, I think the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike is very small",NO,NO,True,True,0.5255,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-11T12:48:49.325915Z,0x1c06953cb119494695f838651d326005448d5a56,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"They came in at 1.938M vs 1.95 expected, so no.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-12T23:32:18.410883Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I know those guys are fucking retards¡­. Everyone knows it is getting cut buy 50!!!,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-10T21:24:24.851235Z,0xd2501425fde943eb08cfdeceb2d95a45d60db5cd,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Would share why? What is the reason and fact of this?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-10T04:46:43.357089Z,0x75e2795379362df1e41d2e32f2a34ef70dc94332,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,government jobs that shouldn't exist anyway.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-09T15:02:36.288144Z,0x8ae2bf781be5f7c6971c315f179277a78dca64de,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,US Job Growth Slows to Almost Zero https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-09/weak-us-jobs-data-divides-wall-str,NO,NO,True,True,18.14,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T17:12:56.178506Z,0x371f0c9a6d39eca2123230c0bddbd6d06a5b7da2,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,When is the annoucement? Didn't they already decreased ?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-21T21:08:25.842705Z,0x760a80f9df326eb2e8179894094b68ec943c7a10,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If they cut the system breaks, and if they don't the system breaks.",YES,NO,False,True,24.5,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T01:10:04.934809Z,0x2eef6a6bac8254454485d6f8917478ef7653c38b,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Doesn't match the current price. should be 2.1c, but its 1.7 rn",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T16:00:41.609778Z,0x5b0822de13f6be1a7efc233aa8bd6f3e6eff694e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"That¡¯s just not how it works, you¡¯ll lose 13k",NO,NO,True,True,1273.7233,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T15:49:56.596099Z,0xcb03ea6be02fee76ee17c29f7712426a0e8a4ff0,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Surprisingly weak job reports; inflation spike from tariffs was expected by the majority of economists. To be fair, I th",NO,YES,False,True,611.5,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-13T23:20:25.003925Z,0xf676f7f5a41ebb7ce7d73a00c72158161e817424,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Fed has only cut rates twice in history in the months before an election. 1992 and 2008. I guess we'll see if this is ti,YES,NO,False,True,750.97,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-07-07T13:50:59.846866Z,0x759b4bcbff59673d9cb518448cd09369173cdd0f,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"He is going to raise, fk your calls, fk your puts.",YES,YES,True,True,20.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-06-24T12:17:32.649314Z,0x0486d353079220bdd94704073a88c2389f9f1472,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,jerome's in the house watch your mouth !,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T17:25:28.108997Z,0xb356a50e74179326bc1e081c743344198002d6cc,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"holding hands since day 1, love you Ken - Barbie",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,530.1999,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-24T06:42:41.852597Z,0xbcc5d7ec1efaf1307eea62b06bbb661f50e9e147,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"i'm dumb, i have no money left, i see that buying against others will give me the highest roi among other options to sta",YES,YES,True,True,2000.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:47:24.800046Z,0x0e0826998f02b2353499a12a0ea8d8eebe27567f,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,50bps surprise cut might be the one,YES,NO,False,True,133.4017,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T09:25:52.850274Z,0x9971a842d229da5cabeec9ac79a18ee8b2648591,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Spiritually I¡¯m with ¡°No Change¡± gang. But things work differently.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-07T15:33:49.482227Z,0x3d88b81fedb2f9ac7b0daa2bf56611b1a2f82e29,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I know you will probably not read this but Freakybob died for your sins. Freakybob cares about you and wants to see you ,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T21:03:52.032355Z,0x947258f2011f674388e0924d8cb3e99458c29847,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,pe toti ne a ars candva trading¡­ pana cand luam doar decizii sistematice cu limita de risk,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,8.64,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-02-20T19:14:47.149255Z,0x6ad04dbbddcddb3e08ff521824d25493681efa93,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,FED is late to cut already. just look at truflation,YES,YES,True,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-25T13:01:42.823589Z,0x62e28549b8e5186311153763add18e87b2c5f957,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"""oh noooo the job marketttttt, lets cut""",YES,NO,False,True,17.6,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T04:02:09.731308Z,0xc01f8138dc280e9769398e5b99348cdc47f08322,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"taking public money, to make big bigger, to counter China.... ""THEY WILL OWN NOTHING & WILL BE HAPPY",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-16T11:41:55.645161Z,0x277b7291863d44cfca0161a88023b641146a77c3,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"guys, the FED is 100% cutting, even if you dont believe me, believe what the market is pricing in on FED watch :) ALL IN",YES,YES,True,True,400.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-14T22:48:21.146569Z,0x7740200dd73d5c7dc19a1f20c721162548c916bb,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,And then blame tariffs. Trump can¡¯t fire him. Markets crash.,NO,NO,True,True,0.004,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-08-31T09:36:44.611768Z,0xb246fa6adaa2313ed3d224423a86ce67b548c72d,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Let go of the struggle, it's a sure thing.",NO,YES,False,True,109.7488,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T12:56:12.142317Z,0xa6b3792279070973ae134dcbdd44a90932db0ec4,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"I wonder how much of no change, and -25bp i need to buy to appropriately hedge 1m in SPY",YES,NO,False,True,1500.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-01T14:40:40.413789Z,0xf115333f761bde99b62f8f3d41108ea7a8d66ca2,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Powel disappointed everyone with no rate cuts. He will disappoint again but with 50bps rate cut,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T11:30:09.748488Z,0xd0e955eedcfb05fbcbdce32614118a287a8cf986,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Long on chaos, NO RATE CUTS TODAY",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-01T04:18:14.357255Z,0x483bc91b7ed4c75b3532fff03b5a965e0ef3dc72,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There's 0% chance he'll cut 50bips. The growth number is still too hot.,YES,NO,False,True,1.05,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-10T04:04:01.740284Z,0xb80519584c41a4d719bcf4f60b6c04a56134df63,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"nah, before an increase they will sit on their ass and say ""data depenend"" and just stay flat for a month.",YES,NO,False,True,87.6839,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T21:30:07.012008Z,0x8b6521cb4bfa4006ccfe469892d8c67cdb20000c,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I don't remember the topic around interest rates were so uncertain and chaotic,YES,NO,False,True,231.9,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T12:06:23.149956Z,0x8bac5392a4f8148452c42b4d80026f30cbcae073,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I¡¯ve just sold 50+ and bought a tiny bit of No change. Just because after CPI, odds of no change will bounce back. I wi",YES,YES,True,True,246.5048,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T02:26:42.647509Z,0x32dfce837b238ed186d040587afa06c23249a54b,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Scott Bessent hinted 50bps cut rates and so will it be. Everything he says comes to pass.,YES,YES,True,True,8251.4996,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:03:36.074134Z,0xb356a50e74179326bc1e081c743344198002d6cc,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Zion, u better get the fuck out of my sight",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,530.1999,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T22:24:30.968029Z,0xcb03ea6be02fee76ee17c29f7712426a0e8a4ff0,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Officials acknowledged worries over higher inflation and weaker employment, but a majority of the 18 policymakers in att",NO,YES,False,True,611.5,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-08T14:10:35.192424Z,0xed739c2168606fa220eb7f08f65b3bfc8f22aac7,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"Was blatantly obvious no change when Powell spoke last month. After that data yesterday, it¡¯s 99c",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-19T11:03:52.502172Z,0xf8f6c2060833ead24c6900e54af967620eab2361,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Soryka 616.7K 25+ Bps Increase 0s ago 3 billion of USDT whales send to #HTX i think the pump is coming. 25 decrease is,YES,YES,True,True,2703.02,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T17:22:37.980338Z,0xb356a50e74179326bc1e081c743344198002d6cc,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"25 or 50, lets just say a quick prayers to ""no change"" for providing liquidity for us to bet",NO,YES,False,True,530.1999,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-10T08:55:24.742648Z,0x6a614a07df110aaedd480d629d06fea758ec1ae1,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Steve Englander talked about 50 Bps cut on Bloomberg tv,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T21:37:55.989585Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Thats job creation not unemployment rate. When immigration got cut down by 70% you don¡¯t need job creation level as h,YES,NO,False,True,57.208,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:53:15.308942Z,0x6c77ae4f0ef9dd5ab1dbd83293aeb2cb8bd59ad8,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"winning is great, but i am worried about the bigger picture and imo anything other than no change is really bad for the ",YES,NO,False,True,919.35,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-28T04:17:06.492929Z,0x462ad1ba8b73160e410e509f21c21c70cf9dee7e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"CPI is releasing next month, What number are you talking about?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T13:13:41.127481Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,1 million less migrants needing jobs this year? The unemployment rate only dropped by.1,YES,NO,False,True,57.208,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-06T15:29:02.248649Z,0xc58451cf3d3df858e994c465404e098a1f9093f3,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Waller mogged all the recession callers with their fancy indicators. Will only cut 1 time.,NO,NO,True,True,3457.6903,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T18:28:10.589846Z,0x96a57c10e24f900972a0996a79dc4372775c1bed,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I like that 25+ bps increase ??,YES,NO,False,True,5.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-11T19:59:50.410022Z,0x085280f6716a521462d7abfae56402b7bc3c461a,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Somebody please ask him not to tilt. Please stop him before he does something terrible!!!,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:25:29.273475Z,0x344a08c55a35606a86e525030dec5cdb2273f0dd,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ask chat gbt to calculate for you with payroll revitio,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-15T07:56:47.139803Z,0x0fb42506f1390b48ed90d113588e61def63dd4f7,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"It will start with 25 basis points, if the labor market or economic conditions worsen it will go 50 points. If it gets i",NO,YES,False,True,437.2754,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T15:48:28.577664Z,0x4c4df664e9fe308534b6c34ca180f4cbe32d8f79,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No fed watch odds were about 50% : 50% last year,YES,YES,True,True,27905.2166,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T03:01:17.472367Z,0x350d4065e5d68389d3a99a137460b81de8ba9489,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"No change is safest bet because in times of unprecendented market uncertainty, the Feds would prefer holding for more in",YES,YES,True,True,8421.6335,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T00:50:33.370289Z,0x48a2a3f613551c7bae6cdfcf6c4fee421275b694,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"whats this about Trump can't fire Lisa Cook before tomorrows Fed Meeting? you kidding me, no cuts tomorrow",YES,NO,False,True,400.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-02T19:34:59.129143Z,0x8013596116f7cc7b76b68a2c16f45aa78786429e,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,This Friday jobless data will decided if 25 or 50 basis points,NO,YES,False,True,38249.3033,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:40:31.066554Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Cme contracts do trillions in volume and retail isn't even allowed to trade them,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,9245.534,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:25:22.689774Z,0x77e6ba0fc34a89befb22f4804c283d1f98337597,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Insiders are all in on no change. I'm quite nervous. Never bet against insiders,NO,YES,False,True,13124.39,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-14T12:03:07.567975Z,0xd8e5a6feb2688b42f36be52e3fe620e92385226a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Did you not see the two huge revisions to the prior two months?,NO,NO,True,True,43.5,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T16:06:15.669461Z,0xc01f8138dc280e9769398e5b99348cdc47f08322,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"i hate links here. CryptoScams Everywhere. @polymarket fix it. (or are you gaining from mixing some scam links here, dis",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T17:04:43.623933Z,0xe63e5acbbdc1d3b433388ca00756865228da9df9,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Yh of course his dad wouldn¡¯t allow him,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,2016.94,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:41:20.894691Z,0xd4e15aef1cc8cba9403f5da99465aa91cee66621,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Why are we going down? Did I miss anything? My diamond hands can barely stand the heat,NO,NO,True,True,3611.523,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T17:26:27.493797Z,0x36bde5aeba47a72b5e8f6ea1eb541a254fbd6339,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"""Once jobs unwind"" - you are right, they will, but the fed is not going to frontrun anything, they are reactive not proa",YES,NO,False,True,23.0106,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T15:14:08.643307Z,0x1aa3525f2f9edd2ff0438bf777d2dc65b16a222a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,we'll connect on discord if we win today,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,384.45,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T14:06:57.881434Z,0xb44029492056baed409b6b92c41dcd100d68ea6d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"After today¡¯s revisions to the nonfarm payrolls, it really feels like the U.S. economy is tipping into the early stages",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:26:07.918786Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"25bps up to 98% on fedwatch, 50bps just 2%. Wow https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor",NO,YES,False,True,9245.534,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,0x8cd67211119409b24bd6223b33b24dd84de7288e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,YES,YES,True,True,1246.2045,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-12T05:42:43.981928Z,0xfbcf95129d24720de89018f4a520567462054e43,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"You guys are crazy...CPI is reaching back to 3%, and even with Powell saying that his priority is get to 2%, you think h",YES,NO,False,True,31.1,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T17:43:58.818872Z,0x8b947a3f891b0eb514372689f40737b76c9eaf80,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,... is a page we all expect to see once the rate cut hits.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:08:34.227745Z,0x095ffc04a6fceb7a36816016fd81642ea7b06187,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you had to listen to the analysts..,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T06:50:27.204674Z,0x582a6b4c06660dda4578df95224996031251cf8a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,They're right only 88% of the time,YES,NO,False,True,407.0324,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-08-25T09:03:15.121096Z,0xe8a0f3a0aee2b82b747f441ec49c35c490183194,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Silly poor, you think the Economy is made to work for the proletariat? Get back to work.",YES,NO,False,True,5.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-03T12:31:59.769008Z,0x1802efb89ebf3ec2650774f315d9b669609cf9a3,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,wow whats with the sudden flood of activity,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-08T22:14:06.927127Z,0x3fe1035e361c74f0dcab7d4c3cfbfcc3f3403bf9,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Broooo it¡¯s Confirmed there is Rate cut in. 15th Cash your bet,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T20:15:02.252091Z,0x7ca5e8e735d1714104a534c9f39e2a29ab116139,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"October pause guys were making the right argument, just applying it to the wrong month.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-02T01:43:38.530449Z,0x4c4df664e9fe308534b6c34ca180f4cbe32d8f79,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's not 71% decrease. It's 100% decrease!!!,YES,YES,True,True,46529.5043,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T10:31:47.313959Z,0x947258f2011f674388e0924d8cb3e99458c29847,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,max pain is definitely not 25bps cut look at the predictions,YES,NO,False,True,143.064,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T19:12:39.454779Z,0xa5c2e8aabc35f9940042063643f56b677fa6d700,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,This is why I dont trade toss ups :D... Good I got out,NO,NO,True,True,193.475,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-06-18T18:06:15.505464Z,0xf6bc99e8c1ceb26adbc01d362d463e84d2e85280,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,get in my profile and click 'gift' button. I don't need money a lot. Just a few will really be helpful. thank you :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T20:00:29.258834Z,0xa5c2e8aabc35f9940042063643f56b677fa6d700,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I am seriously questioning my position if @ZionLion is on my team...,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,193.475,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T15:59:04.043916Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,its cause theres only 1 day left until the decision,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T19:17:48.234269Z,0xd9fd239660ff46afa54d3b75caeac0cdb6b3543c,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Did the same thing. Got out early. It was the right decision.,NO,YES,False,True,395.166,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T21:08:31.293503Z,0x582a6b4c06660dda4578df95224996031251cf8a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Is no change here in the room with us,YES,YES,True,True,439.0324,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T13:02:06.003007Z,0x7af6b628443659a5483b1f8866bb477562f4667e,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"If they cut rates, then the DXY will drop and they will not be able to control it.",YES,NO,False,True,1039.338,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-24T15:07:17.906306Z,0xf1ceaeb0a2563824a87d360e6c65a736e77c933d,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,96% chance it will be 25 decrease,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T15:22:10.086402Z,0xc01f8138dc280e9769398e5b99348cdc47f08322,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,it's a small club. and none of us ain't part of it.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:51:23.652177Z,0xd0c40d51534a8ff4201e0f96b154616b97d3adcf,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Jobs data are mixed, prices are good fo 50 bps",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:33:18.511838Z,0x8a2f7fda82f74b1aed1d64a7b059dd21bb83778e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,so I think tmrw is also gonna be very bad numbers for Retail Sales + social instability due to unemployment + republican,YES,NO,False,True,8483.4584,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:55:12.563323Z,0xc08782ba9e36033b22a615d1e234836621418948,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,CME back to 61% lmao. Thanks for the dip,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-19T20:36:34.057981Z,0xa6b11b882ed385499bc036d5e745e7eee4aed904,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,Rate cuts would make eur/usd and xau/usd more volatile and they can't have that until Russia-Ukraine talks start properl,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T18:44:45.306976Z,0x34f1f5389877cbbc7565e1de21893358de3a91c8,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Just read the entire fed minutes, the only people who want to lower rates is the two appointed by Trump.",YES,NO,False,True,2969.4,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-24T20:34:09.602525Z,0x1c06953cb119494695f838651d326005448d5a56,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"I see, thank you, nothing to worry about then",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T18:17:13.328503Z,0x5a735ed30c3d3c805b1b3c961c3563fbd348568f,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Ask GPT about the character of the voters, you might be surprised, only tomorrow's figures will give a vision of the fut",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1200.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-05T14:02:37.621972Z,0xb1a5552d62ed6ad03465d3308c4cc48ebaa0a48d,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"they will surely decrease them, to make Trump look better",YES,YES,True,True,3.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-24T22:11:49.692443Z,0xe2114bae848e8155a1a11cee45540812e14cfbde,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,And I bought this because I thought it was undervalued (it did hit 40%...). I'm also hedging against my other positions,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T01:25:21.599278Z,0x50f1568d4adb7cbddde1564d0ddb2ee31d122e73,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,All-in he won't cut! If so we riot lol,YES,NO,False,True,5.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-14T03:49:42.436505Z,0xe791b24bec9549cb5b3128f1bb259cffac2a7f6b,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Doesn¡¯t matter, that¡¯s effectively equivalent to the market resolving itself",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,196.8,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T20:20:56.615944Z,0x582a6b4c06660dda4578df95224996031251cf8a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It's gonna bet a trial balloon cut just to appease the market in guise of supporting the labor market and it's gonna be ,YES,NO,False,True,439.0324,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:39:53.065564Z,0x572352f6c85d336eb11a3554f12bfa4dd76b5cc2,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,@duckduck lmk when polymsrket adds o/u Gaza death count so I can put ur life savings on it,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-12T23:08:49.403056Z,0x62e28549b8e5186311153763add18e87b2c5f957,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,well you lost your dollar its over mate,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-27T02:02:45.978836Z,0x5ccd10865c0ea6d6c9431f4c0d3268a041495dc5,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm sure there will be a rate cut,NO,NO,True,True,0.5255,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T12:49:36.459208Z,0x8fbb676c3077acc6e10f83200830092a88bee1e8,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,JP won¡¯t cut into the slightest stickiness of inflation. Go look at what happened February 2025 and ask Chat GPT to ana,YES,NO,False,True,5865.1609,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-08T06:08:53.783868Z,0xeb0805da3988ac563db8eb0469a8c1fef5f55e10,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Have u heard the fed speeches lmao,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-16T04:54:51.001418Z,0x582a6b4c06660dda4578df95224996031251cf8a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,The fedwatch is pretty sentimental so can't really trust it,YES,NO,False,True,1067.7358,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-06-26T07:01:58.475989Z,0x4c698d7f9655dafa8e0b4368bf2517b09c55364d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,If u got dry powder 3ish weeks at 1.5% 2.25% ish per month 27% ish annualized,NO,NO,True,True,5.35,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T12:19:01.977129Z,0x085280f6716a521462d7abfae56402b7bc3c461a,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I'm gonna withdraw all my winnings as $1 notes and use it as TP to wipe my A$$,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:24:30.703029Z,0xb8f1cbc2704f64b1b51a682b187d2394b5ed6580,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,most likely yeah but there's no info on it yet bro,YES,YES,True,True,32.6055,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-08T05:36:13.672719Z,0x18fc116658dc0fa7343238d4ccf336c68b32164e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Standard Chartered revised its outlook and now expects a 50 bps cut instead of 25 bps, citing a sharp weakening in the l",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T10:47:10.198938Z,0x32dfce837b238ed186d040587afa06c23249a54b,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"kingk8 bought 117,985 Yes for 50+ bps decrease at 25.4c ($30,000) 13m ago kingk8 bought 42,888 Yes for 50+ bps decrease",YES,YES,True,True,8251.4996,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-06T15:29:20.565738Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Nick Timiraos, the fed whisperer who gets leaks from within the federal reserve debunked a 50bps cut this morning and gu",NO,YES,False,True,9245.534,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T09:52:05.456173Z,0x947258f2011f674388e0924d8cb3e99458c29847,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,hes a little indian scammer begging on polymarket,YES,NO,False,True,143.064,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-18T17:03:30.528387Z,0xa247b23809d86c803edbf2bd0ee0a99a15ee4e55,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I¡¯ve read quite a few FOMC speeches where they explain their thought process. I guess I missed the one where they talke,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-12T13:33:21.177074Z,0x42970f8f19a56f8e84615c93e8ec4dec634fd78b,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,1:100 odds of no change? Seems to be too much uncertainty currently to not have a small chance of happening.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-17T03:35:00.376548Z,0x96a57c10e24f900972a0996a79dc4372775c1bed,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"no offense, but Chat GPT ain't that reliable. lol",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-28T06:32:28.463049Z,0xcbcedcfc78cd984e2733ba6818c831d2544c2cd6,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,im back for another round of fed decisions roulette guys,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T12:09:37.782836Z,0x9f28a50ad06e719cadf9ab97263fdcf2704306ee,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Kingk8 is someone who works at the FED and wants to make quick money¡­ Nobody bets $500,000 like that without solid info",YES,YES,True,True,230.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-30T17:02:53.254229Z,0xad7c54d9de6ba95dfde0632afee0de93ec2cbd8d,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,25+ no increase is the sasfest bet,NO,NO,True,True,0.1078,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,0xd8a21caa8b8ea245dec3f952bc981e82acdadd91,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",YES,YES,True,True,0.0235,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,0xbab5ccf8609238d266346629d833ebfdffa43754,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,YES,NO,False,True,25647.0939,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T18:01:58.387404Z,0x5b0822de13f6be1a7efc233aa8bd6f3e6eff694e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"25v50 odds are fair, but no change is way too cheap after powell¡¯s Jackson hole",NO,NO,True,True,1273.7233,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,0x77e6ba0fc34a89befb22f4804c283d1f98337597,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",NO,NO,True,True,13124.39,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-27T03:22:13.738443Z,0x0d5bb4942a5992334707626dddadc9f260d15808,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,no way the decrease 50+ bps. free money there,NO,NO,True,True,2.6687,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T02:07:39.250523Z,0x4525d3ab4f9cd309c61a193a1faeb3005e7da99c,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"There will be a cut 100%. How much is still a toss up, but ill hold my bet. May the victor go the spoils.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-14T18:38:39.644786Z,0x8621ccca49d29df331558a8d356340ab46eaa6c0,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,can someone propose phantom builder daily revenue larger than 200k market. It reached 220k today. Btw. it is still at 75,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T16:55:39.167661Z,0xcb8715efc48908bb3e04c6676b0642e9a1b2a239,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"It's the numbers at this point, not trump",NO,YES,False,True,930.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-08-31T02:31:15.022334Z,0xb4c34c9a83748de9aee8ccc33e773d47fec2162f,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Inflation report says down. The fed won¡¯t rock the boat. No bps incoming for .95 cents in the dollar.. uh yes please! ?,YES,YES,True,True,13.5,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:57:48.561239Z,0x5a735ed30c3d3c805b1b3c961c3563fbd348568f,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I was also leaning towards -50 like him but after the CPI figures and the problems with Cook I think Powell will remain ,YES,NO,False,True,1000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T21:16:59.100218Z,0x89fb06e2292ef634e809cb8240d53a4e1f6f5157,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Oh I agree, looking for that high when he pulls another 7 digits outa thin air. Haha",YES,YES,True,True,57.1185,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-05T08:20:00.681426Z,0x17801f5bd9fef9df5e783b88af7903975b5c4555,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Better Ods with No for No Change,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-26T17:50:33.474596Z,0x21569eb73c0328cf619ac9a75ec790b2030ef834,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Why not buy some no to no change, covers any change.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T11:54:19.800751Z,0x8e5826585ef3487eba391c6c4e9581006a30e0a0,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hello everybody! what do we got today? :),YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,5.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-17T23:51:32.779912Z,0x7f1f6d735523ef03a7fc5fd375777bc78c978eb2,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,How are you so sure? Thats a horrible return for a 1M investment,YES,NO,False,True,10.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-16T06:33:47.587722Z,0x947258f2011f674388e0924d8cb3e99458c29847,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,yeah and you can only bet on this once so it¡¯s a stupid bet,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-13T05:44:39.563822Z,0x9ca5b9d0f99119e025bd2b179dafee562e780019,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"You can convince yourself anything is a good bet. Objectively you¡¯re just not reading unemployment data, and inflation ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-26T12:09:24.242584Z,0xdccccb6be1ce92cfe0b6bfee285761358c72ea9d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,For the past few months it has remained steady so why is it a decreasing cycle :),NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-23T20:25:21.271136Z,0xe3e8e28c398c802169fd3c339075b7af33b41992,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Trump said he needs a giant rate cut, so easy 50+",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T10:35:01.614107Z,0x085280f6716a521462d7abfae56402b7bc3c461a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Niggq do you know what sticky means,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,539.725,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:56:51.870784Z,0x0b587a2dc8eb6a671c42c0a52b234872a426f93d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Just gonna watch quietly as ""No Change"" slowly creeps up in value as people realize Jerome just pulled the most coach sp",YES,NO,False,True,234.96,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-06T16:55:27.180808Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No he released an article this morning on September 6th outlining exactly why they won¡¯t be cutting 50,NO,NO,True,True,9245.534,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-30T12:39:52.568001Z,0x98a0d20561ad09a8837b98397a8140252de63992,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Hahah what did I tell you giys?? Taye cit incoming,YES,NO,False,True,5661.5292,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-07-26T19:30:06.022955Z,0x01ad152b42d994b73997b23447cd3ca116ef1b7d,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Throw it in the bin next time, same thing",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-08-23T11:22:57.233958Z,0xa4a96f1dad4b5bc2c97edf49e0a6c2e4a78c1fb0,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"I don't know much about this, but I have some ideas",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-19T17:18:41.868876Z,0xe7e9441a6f86fb21131139b4ffa0a71b5c1d8aed,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,i wonder if Trump ruining the economy will force FED to change policy today.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-12T23:04:24.823429Z,0x43bbc7272f00d1f126852062aa3e6d07cf43f14c,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"fck it guys im going with 50bps no chance the fed leaves it unchanged. markets already priced in either 25 or 50, can't ",YES,NO,False,True,21.522,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-27T16:35:54.055214Z,0xd8a21caa8b8ea245dec3f952bc981e82acdadd91,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,It at escalated to Trump vs China with the DeepSeek dump,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.0235,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T13:26:10.833227Z,0xe4dc19367532514f3988dae007071a1edf4a88ed,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Its kinda sad to see how you lost 40k man,NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T16:29:20.929385Z,0x13be40262ad12b7fa4a8326d02d7f4b2523dc67d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I think 25 BPS, or even 50 BPS if we got lucky, i bet no change but it's just for fun",YES,YES,True,True,702.2151,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-14T06:34:05.426201Z,0x8bbe0c25b3355e4f1ba8be01c4fab201127af0bd,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"no change would be pretty funny, and im here for it, lessgooo",YES,YES,True,True,814.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-03-19T18:08:03.319871Z,0x7ccc6083bb2be4e0eb28eb22aa365bbb9863e76f,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"wow, scary. only 0.25 away from losing it all",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-24T16:42:22.443724Z,0xa4ce285a70ae55ec28aea893b6598ed35cb088de,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Of course they will follow and cut 25 bps. He's the president ! and he is right. the economy is good to afford 25 bps. W,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-29T17:36:52.937146Z,0x90540a66fe5a85b53c839053a20c62ceaeaf5061,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,Daddy i already wanna thank you for giving me 300 dollars. You want me to come over to your room tonight ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-13T20:59:37.165407Z,0xe2114bae848e8155a1a11cee45540812e14cfbde,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bostic and Goolsbee¡¯s remarks were interesting... Shame I can't get the links to work,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1956.2241,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T15:25:28.751325Z,0x4525d3ab4f9cd309c61a193a1faeb3005e7da99c,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Zion you have to lay off the coke. Chill baby its all golden.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-08T22:07:08.600488Z,0x5cd94819667c54fa7804023a1410ca6eb61f5471,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"Something tels me that 1 to 33 ratio just is not right, everyone wants ratecuts but will they do that now? Are you so su",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T13:29:46.242019Z,0x0277997af94428d18353ba68bca02e3bd165bf15,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,bot try to do polymarket active you know,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,239.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-24T21:54:27.156569Z,0x1c06953cb119494695f838651d326005448d5a56,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You seem pretty aure they¡¯re cutting then except for the PCE. Why do you hold so much of the opposite then?,YES,NO,False,True,2950.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-05T13:37:33.471772Z,0xbcae38fb2345e040444014ef8a2a39a93808cba0,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,someone please tip me something I'm in so loss already ??????????????,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-09-08T21:37:20.156439Z,0x646cbb2603715f55a95bc3fbefb346869257ca8c,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"List of investments banks predicting 25bps: Blackrock, Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, W",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-27T09:15:29.465275Z,0x90540a66fe5a85b53c839053a20c62ceaeaf5061,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,What happened to the stocks (pre-market)? S&P 500 technology down 5 procent,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:17:37.539683Z,0x8e6a2593f7aa4da60dbddfbf6fc1f5dfa91b4c1e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Fed chair Jerome powell just hinted at Fed cuts in a speech,NO,NO,True,True,3.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T22:39:46.055094Z,0xcb03ea6be02fee76ee17c29f7712426a0e8a4ff0,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"However, I sold my position in the No Change. I'll come back after Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI.",NO,NO,True,True,89.489,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T17:31:33.383606Z,0xb356a50e74179326bc1e081c743344198002d6cc,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,lol cold feet and cold fingers typing,NO,NO,True,True,530.1999,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-07-22T19:45:52.640003Z,0xe313a18bf1929fe850f8dbc8b3ac19612b2e5b3d,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Was by the sea today and saw a group of beached whales. A pod if you will,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,98.6336,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-05T13:37:19.387821Z,0x959c14e3f2683658f654d3d756158313b2c651b7,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Come on, No change in September and then do anything you want FED",YES,YES,True,True,169.45,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-16T18:48:47.677572Z,0xa5c2e8aabc35f9940042063643f56b677fa6d700,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,"Markets are weird. 25bps was overvalued at 90% not so long ago, now its undervalued at 50%. Fed people clearly indicated",NO,NO,True,True,193.475,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-08-06T14:39:31.309275Z,0x4cb2f33fcfd5443989ae0f13a104650f8e1ba0b6,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,An emergency rate cut is an admission that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing; they would never convey this kind of la,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:39.234214Z,0x72ff5b7d2401db6c467c51f760ef178fd6a126ea,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,There will be new millionaires.,YES,YES,True,True,573.8899,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-08-28T04:17:06.492929Z,0x462ad1ba8b73160e410e509f21c21c70cf9dee7e,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,"CPI is releasing next month, What number are you talking about?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:35:52.468651Z,0x1aa3525f2f9edd2ff0438bf777d2dc65b16a222a,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,it's not happening that's why. dont be desperate boi,YES,NO,False,True,384.45,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-06T16:54:11.289231Z,0x3d57b57d5803a3ae5cf19ed24aa943ff482f5545,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,25 is locked no matter what CPI is,NO,YES,False,True,9245.534,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,0xa5e8011a57f131dd8ba780bda9ef3abb85179b12,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,YES,NO,False,True,127.7816,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T18:09:19.906926Z,0x4525d3ab4f9cd309c61a193a1faeb3005e7da99c,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I just came here to say the majority of you that post are retarded.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10002.52,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T17:36:25.971011Z,0x43a634e48e2f8f917de01a068d04aa6c0db00428,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Who's gonna be the fastest to dump when it gets released in 20 min,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,0x8e6a2593f7aa4da60dbddfbf6fc1f5dfa91b4c1e,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,NO,YES,False,True,3.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..622e7b408748760b58443d4b714da2d62a4ed865 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,flip,False,True,72.122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False,True,0.0235,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False,True,26.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False,True,1246.2045,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False,True,455.78,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False,True,115.91,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False,True,2016.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False,True,13124.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,increase,False,True,77.208,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,decrease,False,True,44.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True,True,1298.7458,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False,True,54.864,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False,True,100.1185,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False,True,100.1185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False,True,919.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False,True,24.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,293.15,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False,True,43.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,increase,False,True,1067.7358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,increase,False,True,25647.0939,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,increase,False,True,0.7295,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,increase,False,True,93.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True,True,100.1185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3abcf67bf14ffd22f9058ca5bc8ccf1dda090d3a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,hold,True +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,decrease,False +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,decrease,False +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,decrease,False +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,decrease,False +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..03f7d37d059cec4d2de8769eb68d176537dd271a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,hold,True +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,flip,False +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,flip,False +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,flip,False +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,flip,False +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..622e7b408748760b58443d4b714da2d62a4ed865 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,flip,False,True,72.122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False,True,0.0235,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False,True,26.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False,True,1246.2045,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False,True,455.78,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False,True,115.91,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False,True,2016.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False,True,13124.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,increase,False,True,77.208,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,decrease,False,True,44.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True,True,1298.7458,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False,True,54.864,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False,True,100.1185,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False,True,100.1185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False,True,919.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False,True,24.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,293.15,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False,True,43.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,increase,False,True,1067.7358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,increase,False,True,25647.0939,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,increase,False,True,0.7295,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,increase,False,True,93.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True,True,100.1185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..622e7b408748760b58443d4b714da2d62a4ed865 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,flip,False,True,72.122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False,True,0.0235,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False,True,26.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False,True,1246.2045,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False,True,455.78,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False,True,115.91,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False,True,2016.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False,True,13124.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,increase,False,True,77.208,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,decrease,False,True,44.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True,True,1298.7458,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False,True,54.864,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False,True,100.1185,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False,True,100.1185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False,True,919.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False,True,24.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,293.15,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False,True,43.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,increase,False,True,1067.7358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,increase,False,True,25647.0939,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,increase,False,True,0.7295,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,increase,False,True,93.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True,True,100.1185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..622e7b408748760b58443d4b714da2d62a4ed865 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,flip,False,True,72.122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False,True,0.0235,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False,True,26.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False,True,1246.2045,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False,True,455.78,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False,True,115.91,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False,True,2016.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False,True,13124.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,increase,False,True,77.208,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,decrease,False,True,44.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True,True,1298.7458,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False,True,54.864,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False,True,100.1185,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False,True,100.1185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False,True,919.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False,True,24.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,293.15,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False,True,43.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,increase,False,True,1067.7358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,increase,False,True,25647.0939,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,increase,False,True,0.7295,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,increase,False,True,93.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True,True,100.1185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..622e7b408748760b58443d4b714da2d62a4ed865 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,flip,False,True,72.122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False,True,0.0235,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False,True,26.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False,True,1246.2045,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False,True,455.78,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False,True,115.91,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False,True,2016.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False,True,13124.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,increase,False,True,77.208,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,decrease,False,True,44.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True,True,1298.7458,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False,True,54.864,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False,True,100.1185,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False,True,100.1185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False,True,919.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False,True,24.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,293.15,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False,True,43.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,increase,False,True,1067.7358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,increase,False,True,25647.0939,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,increase,False,True,0.7295,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,increase,False,True,93.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True,True,100.1185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..622e7b408748760b58443d4b714da2d62a4ed865 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +542539,2025-09-15T14:35:14.885623Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"lol that's what these people don't understand, they are all part of the same team one big circus",hold,flip,False,True,72.122,FLIP,qwen3:32b +516008,2025-01-26T17:45:04.946535Z,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,"The Trump game is a new game, you will realise soon enough",hold,flip,False,True,0.0235,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:54:47.408447Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,No change. Nancy Pelosi did a 75 BPS head fake so Paul could line his pockets,hold,flip,False,True,26.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:51:39.571838Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change. Markets crash to take the media attention away from Charlie kirk assassination,hold,flip,False,True,1246.2045,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T14:08:07.018721Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No statement is gonna be released ??,hold,flip,False,True,455.78,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-07T19:00:20.029235Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"If there's no change, it would be INSANE",hold,flip,False,True,115.91,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T19:48:24.754897Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"I hope so, if he thought it was a good buy at 19. Then 12 is a steal",hold,increase,False,True,100.1185,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T14:27:51.234622Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,you must not of heard him at his last speech when a reported asked him how about a 50 bps cut for september,hold,flip,False,True,127.7816,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T18:18:35.729018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,They sabotaged the dollar. Hello recession,hold,flip,False,True,2016.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T17:43:03.706226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"BREAKING: Federal reserve holds rates steady, aims for October cuts",hold,flip,False,True,13124.39,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-10T13:25:13.958014Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,No change has a higher chance than 50. The fed wont drop 50 they would rather do multiple 25 or 12.5 to control the r,hold,increase,False,True,77.208,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T22:32:26.229103Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i think it will be either -0.25 or no change,hold,decrease,False,True,44.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-20T19:35:54.782018Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,This is gonna be the same tone going in to Jackson Hole meeting,hold,hold,True,True,1298.7458,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-22T15:15:35.881409Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Bruh listen to CNBC news they literally said it would happen,hold,increase,False,True,3.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-27T23:34:07.070781Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"How is it possible that people already know a month in advance that the market will go up, and then put all their wealth",hold,flip,False,True,54.864,FLIP,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T15:27:06.358065Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,It's obviously clear there are insiders here. Yall just need to filter between who's just hedging their positions and wh,hold,hold,True,True,27.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-11T14:35:16.794148Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,I agree I think a 25 cut is coming but may be in October,hold,flip,False,True,100.1185,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:45:40.139436Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,July 27. 2022. Fed had 0% but it was raised. Sept202.2022. 54% no change. Fed raised . Nov2 2022. FEDWatch had 70% f,hold,decrease,False,True,100.1185,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +553813,2025-10-29T17:42:08.550104Z,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,I never cared about interest rates at all - until Polymarket came along.,hold,hold,True,True,2.38,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T01:15:05.737322Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,Ultimate troll he increases the rate ??,hold,flip,False,True,15.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T03:38:07.484845Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"A rate cut and money becoming cheaper to borrow won't help stimulate the job market nowadays, and Powell is probably awa",hold,flip,False,True,919.35,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-13T16:02:37.997702Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,You are crazy or a memecoin millionaire,hold,flip,False,True,24.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-17T06:45:49.845226Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,We¡¯ll meet after this is done lol,hold,hold,True,True,293.15,HOLD,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-16T22:39:54.465026Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Today People lost millions to benefica vs qar it was 89vs5, juv tied with dortmund , rma almost lost to mars, that gives",hold,flip,False,True,43.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-17T19:23:34.533309Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,"Sell your house, sell your wife, sell everything and all in bro",hold,increase,False,True,1067.7358,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-08-11T15:20:01.024652Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,CPI is estimated above last month https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733,hold,increase,False,True,25647.0939,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-17T06:05:56.756799Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,I'm thrilled to see this outcome.,hold,increase,False,True,0.7295,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-09T10:48:27.125699Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,i get my initials back and crypto pumps more then if 25bps,hold,increase,False,True,93.0561,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +542539,2025-09-15T19:38:41.955211Z,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,It was back in 2022 just after Covid when they had to do the rate hikes ..,hold,hold,True,True,100.1185,HOLD,qwen3:32b +504071,2024-09-18T16:10:54.437662Z,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,Small bet on no change and main bet on 25 decrease. Let¡¯s see if I make money or lose money :),hold,decrease,False,True,99.99,DECREASE,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..694c5fdf13b9c5dc673faf5fc84ec19e2fdae062 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/economics/qwen3_polymarket_economics_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.10000000000000002,0.009464015151515154,-0.09053598484848487,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,20,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.0265,0.040756944444444436,0.014256944444444437,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,4,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.02650000000000001,0.015495495495495502,-0.011004504504504508,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,15,DOWN,qwen3:32b +3,0.425,0.27966145833333333,-0.14533854166666665,DOWN,0.9403207772742941,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,6,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.4249999999999999,0.02192129629629629,-0.4030787037037036,DOWN,0.9244417408653282,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,235,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.4250000000000001,0.2234765625,-0.2015234375000001,DOWN,0.8967003151507746,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,23,DOWN,qwen3:32b +6,0.04,0.018759114583333337,-0.021240885416666664,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +7,0.1,0.00606628787878788,-0.09393371212121213,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,5,UP,qwen3:32b +8,0.04,0.016520833333333335,-0.023479166666666666,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.10000000000000002,0.0221439393939394,-0.07785606060606062,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?,3,UP,qwen3:32b +10,0.04,0.0007134831460674161,-0.039286516853932585,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,2,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +11,0.04,0.004976562499999999,-0.035023437500000004,DOWN,1.0,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,26,UP,qwen3:32b +12,0.0265,0.047989583333333335,0.021489583333333336,UP,1.0,UP,UP,True,True,DOWN,False,False,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?,7,DOWN,qwen3:32b +13,0.42499999999999977,0.08414322916666667,-0.3408567708333331,DOWN,0.9954365835901496,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?,117,DOWN,qwen3:32b +14,0.04,0.002252604166666666,-0.037747395833333336,DOWN,0.9839580946145033,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?,2,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/commitment_validity_polymarket_other.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/commitment_validity_polymarket_other.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8dd047955e4d9b95fb3312649567478885d46370 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/commitment_validity_polymarket_other.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "polymarket/other", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 72, + "n_wrong_bettors": 40, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.5556, + "n_directional": 33, + "n_follows_commitment": 14, + "n_follows_truth": 19, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.4242, + "binom_p": 0.8519, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 56, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.5, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 18.96, + "binom_p": 0.6047, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.4286, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 87.6, + "binom_p": 0.788, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.3571, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 590.73, + "binom_p": 0.9102, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.2857, + "n": 14, + "median_position_size": 2086.58, + "binom_p": 0.9713, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": -0.2143, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.8327, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..981800ff79e4931bb71d41a11078e8afe62f299b --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-06T11:40:15.494276Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I WILL TRADE ROBUX FOR USDT RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE IN YES,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T19:58:33.161502Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The top NO holder, ScarletRot, is sitting on a $2M position, with only a 2% return if NO wins. That's just a $40K gain. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T20:23:57.992338Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just know these whales gonna win again. Fuck it 2 dollars means shit,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T16:45:12.921239Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"guys if you speak the truth they will disable your ability to post, I am on a second acc",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T08:54:34.918857Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,expecting a multibillion dollar company to burn itself at the stake to save a few people with 6-7 figures of financial i,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T07:21:29.033679Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Polymarket affirmed that ""a consensus of credible reporting HAS NOT CONFIRMED that Zelenskyy has worn a suit"", which was",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:08:17.643165Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No one is afraid, we are just baffled by your stubborness. This is not our first rodeo",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T15:23:12.758362Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I only spread the realest facts,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T19:46:33.433684Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Another FAKE VICTIM who bought AFTER POLYMARKET TOLD THEM WHICH SIDE IT WILL RESOLVE TO and is now COMPLAINING ABOUT BEI,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T17:08:37.987218Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,EVERYBODY I am going to do another round of Reddit posts - LAST ONES GOT 200K VIEWS!!! Leave any suggestions of subreddi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T05:08:45.755515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Thanks mom, you're wrong and part of the problem.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T23:39:03.827698Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""Yes"" holders risk $1 for $100, ""No"" holders risk $100 for $1 ??",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T07:06:35.082435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I bought it about two months ago, and from that angle it does look like I'm being scammed",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T09:38:41.134178Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,google ukraine mineral deal. aenews was scamming back then as well.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:55:13.742482Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yes bettors, why are you not buying at 100x leverage, so you can make not 50x your money, but 5000?",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T21:34:48.440836Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro risking 6000k to get $150 , moron midcurved mf",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T16:52:15.368994Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Cant blame them though. Imagine not knowing anything about UMA and previous votings and see Headlines of Zelensky wearin,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:20:19.644272Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an ""emerge",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:37:08.603632Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Bro you've been talking in here non-stop for the past two days. Your big win was risking 6k for 100 bucks when you could,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:14:25.360956Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"To who? unless you stir enough stink to reach really big people, Polymarket just ignore you all",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-28T12:31:38.039051Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I hold to 0 if needed so i don't need to comeback here :),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:07:00.054952Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guy has dropped $6k hoping to make..... $180. And already underwater. lmao.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T17:32:55.179004Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Who the F (Punchbowl ) spends $5M to buy at an average of $0.98? There are MANY MUCH more profitable ways to spend FIVE ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T22:25:45.918771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,whales will change to yes its more profit,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T11:33:49.852253Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to buy ges took at thi point,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T19:47:36.461137Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can't believe polymarket selling $1 for 0.01,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:42:16.260665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"wow, 35k YES bet, what a guy!!!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T08:57:52.851268Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nfng, just bros has a short memory and can¡¯t remember what happened a month ago",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T13:47:13.161485Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Imagine having 0 testosterone and holding NO for a $50 gain, you've failed your bloodline",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T09:52:46.034228Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Suit jackets have one small pocket on the chest. Zelensky's jacket has 2 large pockets on the chest, that's a classic ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:04:12.730046Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,In 12 hours they will be revealed,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T06:26:53.606336Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you should know you are the king of uma,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T10:23:57.094384Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i have too much on this better be yes ($6),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:28:03.004883Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm buying 1M shares at 0.1 to join the lawsuit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T08:08:57.332975Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The vote is over. To participate next time, buy UMA tokens (around $1) from a crypto exchange or wallet, go to vota.uma.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T22:30:55.154376Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,funny how YES holders think that earning 2% in a week is a scam and trying to make 50x in a day isn't a scam,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T13:20:06.461146Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How would that make sense? He would then have more shares in Yes and would earn more if this was resolved as Yes,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T10:58:59.559287Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Congrats on your $200 profit big boy,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T12:46:17.645707Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Should be over already. But only remains to be seen. They are only attracting the wrong attention. Clearly the overall g,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T22:38:18.262651Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Go to the official Twitter of polymarket and UMA, and there you will find a discord link. I can't send it here",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a73df98792222ae2d0cddd7f76f8f2aabd416682 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-06T11:40:15.494276Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I WILL TRADE ROBUX FOR USDT RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE IN YES,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T19:58:33.161502Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The top NO holder, ScarletRot, is sitting on a $2M position, with only a 2% return if NO wins. That's just a $40K gain. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T20:23:57.992338Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just know these whales gonna win again. Fuck it 2 dollars means shit,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T16:45:12.921239Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"guys if you speak the truth they will disable your ability to post, I am on a second acc",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T08:54:34.918857Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,expecting a multibillion dollar company to burn itself at the stake to save a few people with 6-7 figures of financial i,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T07:21:29.033679Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Polymarket affirmed that ""a consensus of credible reporting HAS NOT CONFIRMED that Zelenskyy has worn a suit"", which was",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:08:17.643165Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No one is afraid, we are just baffled by your stubborness. This is not our first rodeo",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T15:23:12.758362Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I only spread the realest facts,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T19:46:33.433684Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Another FAKE VICTIM who bought AFTER POLYMARKET TOLD THEM WHICH SIDE IT WILL RESOLVE TO and is now COMPLAINING ABOUT BEI,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T17:08:37.987218Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,EVERYBODY I am going to do another round of Reddit posts - LAST ONES GOT 200K VIEWS!!! Leave any suggestions of subreddi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T05:08:45.755515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Thanks mom, you're wrong and part of the problem.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T23:39:03.827698Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""Yes"" holders risk $1 for $100, ""No"" holders risk $100 for $1 ??",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T07:06:35.082435Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I bought it about two months ago, and from that angle it does look like I'm being scammed",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T09:38:41.134178Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,google ukraine mineral deal. aenews was scamming back then as well.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:55:13.742482Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yes bettors, why are you not buying at 100x leverage, so you can make not 50x your money, but 5000?",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T21:34:48.440836Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro risking 6000k to get $150 , moron midcurved mf",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T16:52:15.368994Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Cant blame them though. Imagine not knowing anything about UMA and previous votings and see Headlines of Zelensky wearin,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:20:19.644272Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an ""emerge",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:37:08.603632Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Bro you've been talking in here non-stop for the past two days. Your big win was risking 6k for 100 bucks when you could,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:14:25.360956Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"To who? unless you stir enough stink to reach really big people, Polymarket just ignore you all",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-28T12:31:38.039051Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I hold to 0 if needed so i don't need to comeback here :),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:07:00.054952Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guy has dropped $6k hoping to make..... $180. And already underwater. lmao.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T17:32:55.179004Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Who the F (Punchbowl ) spends $5M to buy at an average of $0.98? There are MANY MUCH more profitable ways to spend FIVE ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T22:25:45.918771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,whales will change to yes its more profit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T11:33:49.852253Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to buy ges took at thi point,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T19:47:36.461137Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can't believe polymarket selling $1 for 0.01,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:42:16.260665Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"wow, 35k YES bet, what a guy!!!",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T08:57:52.851268Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nfng, just bros has a short memory and can¡¯t remember what happened a month ago",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T13:47:13.161485Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Imagine having 0 testosterone and holding NO for a $50 gain, you've failed your bloodline",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T09:52:46.034228Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Suit jackets have one small pocket on the chest. Zelensky's jacket has 2 large pockets on the chest, that's a classic ca",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:04:12.730046Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,In 12 hours they will be revealed,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T06:26:53.606336Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you should know you are the king of uma,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T10:23:57.094384Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i have too much on this better be yes ($6),True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:28:03.004883Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm buying 1M shares at 0.1 to join the lawsuit,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T08:08:57.332975Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The vote is over. To participate next time, buy UMA tokens (around $1) from a crypto exchange or wallet, go to vota.uma.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T22:30:55.154376Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,funny how YES holders think that earning 2% in a week is a scam and trying to make 50x in a day isn't a scam,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T13:20:06.461146Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How would that make sense? He would then have more shares in Yes and would earn more if this was resolved as Yes,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T10:58:59.559287Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Congrats on your $200 profit big boy,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T12:46:17.645707Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Should be over already. But only remains to be seen. They are only attracting the wrong attention. Clearly the overall g,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T22:38:18.262651Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Go to the official Twitter of polymarket and UMA, and there you will find a discord link. I can't send it here",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..578fad5a1b8969b9b0bec32c7e186d8c330e88f9 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,113 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +546814,2025-06-26T07:40:13.919971Z,0x562d2bdb74787a1ca633ecd6bafec6f2f29b2b8e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Take a close look here - https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-merz-c94591f64c3ed518e4d817d121684298 and h,NO,NO,True,True,749.9174,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T16:52:15.368994Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Cant blame them though. Imagine not knowing anything about UMA and previous votings and see Headlines of Zelensky wearin,NO,YES,False,True,8455.7734,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T12:18:12.119138Z,0xa9a4d81a5dd0f5f4b963b7925ce0bcaa844d1179,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Don't worry guys. Just like they said the Astros v Dodgers was a technical issue, they can say whatever they want. It co",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,156.3544,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T12:17:43.913652Z,0x33c67ee24a26d6ff79ceaf0786adb63b21318e29,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Over the past few days, I¡¯ve acquired more than 70k UMA tokens. When a contract with a market cap above $100 million-su",NO,YES,False,True,1494.2392,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T13:53:53.113845Z,0xe532169d7fce32f021a79c0d90afc1492b7c35e1,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I went to the shop and bought the suit. And do you know what they did give me as accessiories? Your wallet,NO,YES,False,True,29.4863,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T14:58:08.327353Z,0x0b607137bec27deefd5224df9bb4f03fc993e3b5,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Does the UMA mechanism allow them to flip? Let's say I committed 1Million in yes but now i want to change to No,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,17192.5421,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T22:37:39.334995Z,0x34482bbac71846e7ee34ce52dd2142578886755b,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,can someone send me 10 bucks so i can buy more yes,YES,YES,True,True,29.0156,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T21:58:09.090997Z,0xa78a59ad88bc1170004f881b6a0553de88e26527,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Why would you put $500k down to make a potential $10k? such a crap r:r,YES,NO,False,True,82.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T14:04:35.526513Z,0x2fb45fb2bec1d25d24f432f389ca7aeeb7be0283,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Holding NO for a 4% profit gotta be most socially outcasted reddit user incel disgusting obese discord mod thing one can,YES,NO,False,True,278.15,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T23:23:47.271408Z,0x6f142cc70bd7829d9b41350b5dd13ba20388a473,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro they just raised $200m. this market will be forgotten in like 3 days, everyone hates UMA already, all of the og trad",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,196399.9116,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T11:33:49.852253Z,0x9889d6eeaeeaa5a3afb13173cdaf030563512a5a,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I want to buy ges took at thi point,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T22:40:00.765519Z,0x562d2bdb74787a1ca633ecd6bafec6f2f29b2b8e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Someone send $750 to propose a Yes resolution. Only $750 and yall see the vote result in 3 days :(,NO,YES,False,True,1428.6311,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T13:14:21.336421Z,0x6f0bc9669bf014c1be65196fed0d77cabd639a54,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,$145 in profits? $145 I didn't have last week.,NO,YES,False,True,2396.9568,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T21:22:33.133591Z,0xe036d7210f4691057f94252dabfa8a7c4c6a24e6,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,tip me to fund the anti uma suit,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:52:53.123197Z,0x3b083abf8d492481ad1f4e09b80f59dceba3197f,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,but i'll give you $12 to make clear your loss kid,YES,NO,False,True,197.8549,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:29:06.888189Z,0xd1ff1f149fd0bb8c57b8e7c8408fb6e5697d9099,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Order book looks shaky for No. $50k yes buys and the floodgates will open to Yes,YES,YES,True,True,165.25,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T21:03:59.351342Z,0x77e6ba0fc34a89befb22f4804c283d1f98337597,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"propose yes then, lose your $750 when it goes p4",NO,YES,False,True,1115.0401,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T12:46:17.645707Z,0xbd8c54148233b886cfbc2179aa53e252e135b6fc,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Should be over already. But only remains to be seen. They are only attracting the wrong attention. Clearly the overall g,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T00:41:30.451783Z,0x1d99994b45b8023f6e9832ddb25d27d4610dd38e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This market terminates soon. The chance of winning with Yes shares is very unlikely, that's why it's cheap. Don't buy sh",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T19:46:33.433684Z,0x21f9d4ce514ca6b220b59919644cd9a0c216cadf,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Another FAKE VICTIM who bought AFTER POLYMARKET TOLD THEM WHICH SIDE IT WILL RESOLVE TO and is now COMPLAINING ABOUT BEI,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T08:54:34.918857Z,0x8494f84e72c02cdcada97723e124021599a75d48,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,expecting a multibillion dollar company to burn itself at the stake to save a few people with 6-7 figures of financial i,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,670.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T14:38:51.094948Z,0xbf1f23d3feb1bc2f463f3d7c69b070b5aebbf09d,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guys did I did right that I bought yes?,YES,YES,True,True,51.26,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T11:40:15.494276Z,0x421cd3943c1a3374b19ddb068cb908835f7eaf21,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I WILL TRADE ROBUX FOR USDT RIGHT NOW I BELIEVE IN YES,YES,YES,True,True,8.0598,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T22:33:06.183082Z,0x337bb1da58fcc5285110ed5b7fcc920bb38323f5,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"why is forbes talking about a $3.7M Problem, when there are $178M involved?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.28,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T22:38:18.262651Z,0x908bb17c730b83ebea7581c0ed88e06eabb1355e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Go to the official Twitter of polymarket and UMA, and there you will find a discord link. I can't send it here",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T08:17:54.310968Z,0x9a772c0e045f645da05709f2599582208aacfcbf,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I don't know what will happen between now and July, but let me tell you this: whatever Zelensky wore at that NATO summit",NO,NO,True,True,27.923,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T03:45:22.385037Z,0xa719a45d27f70753136b95b085512c7ae7a153d1,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"So it costs $750 dollars to dispute a future ""No"" proposal, and we can dispute indefinitely, and *that $750* barrier is ",YES,NO,False,True,75.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:14:25.360956Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"To who? unless you stir enough stink to reach really big people, Polymarket just ignore you all",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T22:25:45.918771Z,0x622ea9c5f0afee3e7d1346570832fbc4307d1594,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,whales will change to yes its more profit,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T05:08:45.755515Z,0xbd8c54148233b886cfbc2179aa53e252e135b6fc,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Thanks mom, you're wrong and part of the problem.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T21:12:00.748501Z,0xccdb50250ffc30918a175516c79146530e86ff61,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"This will resolve to P2 or P3. There is too much evidence for YES resolution, but the UMA whale manipulators won¡¯t let ",YES,NO,False,True,3484.6223,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T01:08:08.094088Z,0xbb2879457867f5aa85f6e5a789905ed8c1a83403,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"i am deveastated and shocked, thankfully the no whales who are going to make $75 in profit are here to give advice",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,200.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:33:28.537376Z,0x6f0bc9669bf014c1be65196fed0d77cabd639a54,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I bought gamestop right on the top,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,461.6304,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T21:34:48.440836Z,0x47baba9b83c7cd484297e771d99076e904647511,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"bro risking 6000k to get $150 , moron midcurved mf",YES,NO,False,True,696.5786,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T00:21:27.647779Z,0x6f12961953518197ae0f0093cfd601ff366e88eb,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"$1,923.03 To win $2,000.03 you were better of gambling on stake",YES,NO,False,True,375.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T23:39:11.651832Z,0x562d2bdb74787a1ca633ecd6bafec6f2f29b2b8e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Someone propose Yes for $750 to see result. if yall continue to buy Yes then just give away your money to No. The court ,NO,NO,True,True,1428.6311,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T07:45:52.171912Z,0xa11bbab41b2b8cc60a6bd414cde354ccfb679752,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"the guy with $10,000,000 sold it all for nothing. u really think hes that dumb. it was a jacket",NO,YES,False,True,64.1299,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:20:47.423979Z,0xffa03f987322d84c4b5554b7a832ee01d9b5e4e1,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Naichli bought 8,078 No at 79.1c ($6,390), lol crazy work this",YES,NO,False,True,52.5559,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T15:23:12.758362Z,0x21f9d4ce514ca6b220b59919644cd9a0c216cadf,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I only spread the realest facts,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T09:38:18.891896Z,0x66fca86ff9ff73cca34252b882bcd51c22aadbb3,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,So should I put my savings in yes?,YES,YES,True,True,3.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T18:35:28.552384Z,0xf6ae6df55d8108b2f22a13e14cfbdcdf62630439,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,i think selling was the wrong move @insect-killer,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T14:25:31.972148Z,0x5df82c4b6108f5055376d93f3d27892729f17ea7,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"'Vaboss bought 44,509 Yes at 74.1 ($32,969)' ????",NO,YES,False,True,152.4607,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T17:11:01.345398Z,0xabac29176143ef1568cf71fb09ac1bbb06919186,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,If this does not result in yes then I do not see how anyone can continue to trust Polymarket. The world media are callin,YES,YES,True,True,132.35,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:07:00.054952Z,0xa78a59ad88bc1170004f881b6a0553de88e26527,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Guy has dropped $6k hoping to make..... $180. And already underwater. lmao.,YES,NO,False,True,69.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:38:39.306455Z,0xa78a59ad88bc1170004f881b6a0553de88e26527,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No it shows people like you have very poor understanding of risk/reward, with $8k down, already underwater and at _most_",YES,NO,False,True,74.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T07:09:48.564873Z,0x40dee3a0f3ba840f0db02d79de55a3df60b66971,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"it really, really isn't. you're not going to 4x your investment, get over it.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T21:27:53.050053Z,0xf7dd9a3c88b4af5bdb96da564fb3e5eafaf9376d,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Of course it is, Grok isn't holding No positions so it tells the truth.",YES,YES,True,True,1306.0095,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T18:46:36.001851Z,0x46fc297c9614a9f4de91667a097145ae1cb92831,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Why would you need evidence of something that didn't happen?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T06:33:33.447783Z,0x6fe0e8bdac611e9df3334cdae26062ba621c434e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"UMA holders be like: ""We bet $200M on that we are credible reporting""",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,297.5,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T23:05:23.563295Z,0xead208d7eb9b65fdb1760d68fc2b79efff61da85,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Which brokie on yes has the $1500 for a double dispute later? Doesn't seem like many of you even have $15 left,NO,NO,True,True,2957.8127,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T22:33:06.183082Z,0x337bb1da58fcc5285110ed5b7fcc920bb38323f5,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"why is forbes talking about a $3.7M Problem, when there are $178M involved?",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.28,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T14:33:07.373417Z,0x718ac90d6225d5a322617a11263099528f09c171,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Yeschumps NO CRYING AT THE CASINO!,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T16:08:46.513Z,0xc54b12bc4b2622bee2b419ce06a56edd422e0111,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The whales are complaining they are out of money. They have to spend $9700 for each of our $300.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1.165,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T13:00:41.426109Z,0xc153213f64b8b1a0725fb8cb39edf1a040215c70,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Are you getting enough attention 90 dollars warren buffet ? ??,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,654.08,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:08:17.643165Z,0x077cb817d182606d51f9a0eab1f4f80427a9eed4,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"No one is afraid, we are just baffled by your stubborness. This is not our first rodeo",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T21:48:53.800563Z,0x94dbf97758c035f63f03c7a90c1d95bd383c2f40,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Where does it say that they cant change their minds and credible reporting wasnt really present last resolve people were,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T06:49:33.130259Z,0x285b986481b14333f0ed0e392b1cd263c9f99685,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Anybody find it strange that the top seven or eight no holders have been millions of dollars each to win $1000-$4000 in ,YES,NO,False,True,628.3427,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T13:56:37.101862Z,0xbd85e9c25a22b2d6b88ddcc74bb9a9b46e0dde0b,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The right mindset is to gamble for fun, not for winning. I'm glad I didn't dump more than $10 for a rigged game.",YES,NO,False,True,1.35,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T09:38:41.134178Z,0x78380512eceb9c89c0c8f3ebc27de240c607efc9,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,google ukraine mineral deal. aenews was scamming back then as well.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T06:07:43.196717Z,0x7cfaf8850ad3ff615b1c53b6c9cdbbdbb7b62582,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,what a risk? Looool. i bet this like a three monta. i gained 300-400 bucks for a little bets here,NO,YES,False,True,553.1139,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:04:32.611288Z,0x29716ef798c8ace4cda83537c4f593a53321efe6,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Imagine having 0 testosterone and holding NO for a $50 gain, you've failed your bloodline",YES,NO,False,True,83323.0088,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T16:45:12.921239Z,0x4f85e579471e9c6540f0753e32c20d935d7afda0,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"guys if you speak the truth they will disable your ability to post, I am on a second acc",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T15:44:13.955616Z,0x24d8803b81d731f553add0220acf8c8aec97ef10,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Anybody who says the outcome will resolve to NO because UMA whales are able to manipulate the voting process are missing,YES,YES,True,True,228.6589,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T13:20:06.461146Z,0xb2e3306f09d43c5d72d6a91acf0b1d221f9897a3,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How would that make sense? He would then have more shares in Yes and would earn more if this was resolved as Yes,YES,YES,True,True,1776.2127,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T07:06:35.082435Z,0x72d28c3f253dc175e6312d550415dfee524c9eaf,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I bought it about two months ago, and from that angle it does look like I'm being scammed",YES,NO,False,True,70.4475,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T15:17:28.918185Z,0xc82dd449d1ea3517c9beefbea779e34a826d100f,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Commodity Exchange Act (CEA): The CFTC has already fined Polymarket $1.4M for offering unregulated prediction markets. I,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,27.1724,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T14:13:35.006298Z,0x0fe4a7a7cb544f942e987465a9765d8ffc51655c,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm just a regular dude who think he did not wear a suit : why are Yessies telling me I don't even exist?,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T00:47:08.810638Z,0xb73fae32c6527d556c0118fe3a9e5447889dc594,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nsect-Killer sold 3,591,971 Yes at 0.3 ($11,071) 8h ago Insect-Killer sold 2,175,504 Yes at 0.5 ($11,017)",YES,YES,True,True,82.67,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T22:30:55.154376Z,0x84b86689b0c6e84baafa5ff0373d60bd95a67f1a,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,funny how YES holders think that earning 2% in a week is a scam and trying to make 50x in a day isn't a scam,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-27T12:54:16.544016Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry guys, i just shorted a bit, still think he was wearing a suit",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T08:57:52.851268Z,0x7cfaf8850ad3ff615b1c53b6c9cdbbdbb7b62582,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"nfng, just bros has a short memory and can¡¯t remember what happened a month ago",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T21:59:42.324686Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I bought yes then saw aenews2 and car and already knew how this show is gonna go down,NO,YES,False,True,6964.4029,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T05:45:56.349445Z,0x7cfaf8850ad3ff615b1c53b6c9cdbbdbb7b62582,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yeah, I made 15 bucks and you made -600. Way to go!",NO,YES,False,True,553.1139,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T06:26:53.606336Z,0x3a6786b9270270ba8d72d95f007bc419655828f0,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,you should know you are the king of uma,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T10:33:06.126496Z,0x33c67ee24a26d6ff79ceaf0786adb63b21318e29,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Over the past few days, I¡¯ve acquired more than 70k UMA tokens. When a contract with a market cap above $100 million-su",NO,YES,False,True,1494.2392,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:20:19.644272Z,0x147d15ab6ad449428edb1cc99a1156897621dd02,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For those unaware, market will resolve N in the next 20 minutes. Do not fall for the scam comments indicating an ""emerge",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:10:27.613259Z,0x5ad9fcda1ca98054c38c023adbd8c91485418868,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Just $20 million can buy up all the YES orders......,NO,YES,False,True,0.9999,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T13:31:07.019346Z,0xf9b0e54033c44461d4dc789fab449097d634765b,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I will enjoy a small bucket of fried chicken from this win. Cheers guys!,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T00:49:40.480987Z,0x57ae1158b51b3b152f5698b8d0d9a39623b3ff45,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"they are not blind, they are scammers",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T16:26:24.706055Z,0xead208d7eb9b65fdb1760d68fc2b79efff61da85,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,some yes holders have like $20 invested and are on the discord for 8 hrs a day messaging lmfaooooo,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2957.8127,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T03:11:55.233788Z,0x0b587a2dc8eb6a671c42c0a52b234872a426f93d,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"$250, smartie :) at least put the dollar symbol in the correct spot",NO,YES,False,True,237.6427,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T15:39:47.934538Z,0x33c67ee24a26d6ff79ceaf0786adb63b21318e29,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Over the past few days, I¡¯ve acquired more than 70k UMA tokens. When a contract with a market cap above $100 million-su",NO,YES,False,True,1494.2392,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T11:01:20.184086Z,0xfcf09b376dae2133c11d3c9cdac85be0bb538472,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Wow, this hasent been resolved yet. No matter which way it goes I just want to say. HE DID WEAR A SUIT.",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T00:04:39.469056Z,0x562d2bdb74787a1ca633ecd6bafec6f2f29b2b8e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,A market $40m was scammed. What are u talking about lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1428.6311,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:04:12.730046Z,0x0b49d3a831ad3a3584d9e152ad73e9ee2eb7988b,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,In 12 hours they will be revealed,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:01:45.979215Z,0xffa03f987322d84c4b5554b7a832ee01d9b5e4e1,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I'd be mad too if I bought at 83c and its now 77, -88 btw",YES,NO,False,True,52.5559,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T14:28:40.826773Z,0x077cb817d182606d51f9a0eab1f4f80427a9eed4,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"yes, if you buy more yes this will be disputed 100%",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T08:46:40.959449Z,0x6f0bc9669bf014c1be65196fed0d77cabd639a54,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,How do you have the nerves to reply like that to someone with PnL +$1m on this platform. Even if he were to lose $500k h,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,2396.9568,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T09:59:25.993722Z,0x3cb21aa6fb6876e518d52b4a93bc78f25a40c635,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"chill bro ur 600 shares are worth 100 bucks lol, and will be zero soon",NO,NO,True,True,383.72,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T12:35:29.436512Z,0x4cb8dc54a5dcd93bdf6df91cd52da1ad41df4fe6,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"don't worry, after 5 days u will be able to buy 0.1c NO, howmuch ever u want",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T19:44:40.047266Z,0xe18615d8df1b0b5baf05af2662e54cf79b7aa9e8,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For a $66 million market and a fact covered by over 50 major news outlets, if UMA whales still manage to reach a ""consen",YES,YES,True,True,92.5303,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T00:41:57.578943Z,0x5a064c99e2e048c72d557da53cfb1e08b6bf9199,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Let me summarise this to you. Polymarket have got themselves in a very tricky situation. This has $140M VOLUME, meaning ",YES,NO,False,True,1330.5517,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T01:48:53.723997Z,0x0fe4a7a7cb544f942e987465a9765d8ffc51655c,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I pray we reach these levels brother,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:41:47.764518Z,0xa78a59ad88bc1170004f881b6a0553de88e26527,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"And here we have a genius putting $8k on the line in the hopes to win.. checks notes, $250.",YES,NO,False,True,74.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T21:10:41.582533Z,0x77e6ba0fc34a89befb22f4804c283d1f98337597,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"you don't understand the point of alts, enjoy losing your $10 though",NO,NO,True,True,1115.0401,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T14:37:37.785305Z,0x421cd3943c1a3374b19ddb068cb908835f7eaf21,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"I would gladly pay someone $250 for $200 in USDT gang, yes to the moon",YES,YES,True,True,10.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T20:54:57.818961Z,0xc153213f64b8b1a0725fb8cb39edf1a040215c70,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Imagine risking 20.000 to earn 120dollars and thinking you are warren buffet ??????. Pathetic low level men of failure ,YES,NO,False,True,654.08,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-03T20:23:57.992338Z,0x823d564a3c5db757cce7271af82ee72853a172a9,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I just know these whales gonna win again. Fuck it 2 dollars means shit,YES,NO,False,True,2.31,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T09:52:46.034228Z,0xd3278d60607c3b3881077e4cb1937e0f1412fa7c,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Suit jackets have one small pocket on the chest. Zelensky's jacket has 2 large pockets on the chest, that's a classic ca",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T08:15:46.261919Z,0x325baebde2b86879bafa4ec096d13a6f05864814,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,is it a suit? what is that? looks very lgbt,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:28:03.004883Z,0xd7f6ebdf0235f587154e2d7d38f9d80568494993,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm buying 1M shares at 0.1 to join the lawsuit,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T12:55:13.742482Z,0x05fee6c5c6960689d5d4a1777012d62c64941bc0,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Yes bettors, why are you not buying at 100x leverage, so you can make not 50x your money, but 5000?",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T18:42:16.260665Z,0xb0b78be14b8890643dcf38681d0a8382a209b31f,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"wow, 35k YES bet, what a guy!!!",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T00:10:31.448216Z,0xd5072656ad682a8b63ffd133534f409855a40368,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I've never had so much FOMO. These whales are making 100k's free.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T00:55:46.665357Z,0x562d2bdb74787a1ca633ecd6bafec6f2f29b2b8e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Click ""Propose resolution"". Select Yes and pay $750",YES,YES,True,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T04:48:17.594327Z,0x77e6ba0fc34a89befb22f4804c283d1f98337597,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Thank you for your $750 donation,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,830.1736,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-28T06:28:51.122391Z,0x9a581597e3fd7da3cc00766919059252d6d3523e,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Good luck bub, sure FBI will take your 10 dollar case real serious",NO,NO,True,True,122.617,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-06T16:52:28.597473Z,0x4f85e579471e9c6540f0753e32c20d935d7afda0,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,send links so we can deal damage,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T21:39:57.319662Z,0x9ba502e2d378f009f0ca80b125d07f8f373b20a1,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just imagine the face of someone who risked $126,886.60 to win $129,955.90 - if the answer turns out to be 'YES'",YES,YES,True,True,2496.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T19:51:10.060897Z,0xdedd75caab1fc3241f9e81a08e0988d333a4d4ff,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I'm simply on the Yes side because I prefer chaos above boring and often actually quite risky ''bonding'' shenanigans.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T06:05:31.348848Z,0x7cfaf8850ad3ff615b1c53b6c9cdbbdbb7b62582,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,-600 bucks. i recommend you to spend your super gain for gas.,NO,NO,True,True,553.1139,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T05:28:53.240534Z,0x6010c5af4150271a71cfbbe0f0fb600ce5b5b577,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"""The largest single UMA holder to reveal his vote so far has revealed he voted for YES. Let's see how this goes. Truth a",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83ef766cb2d5b60c47e2594b194d6aa843e60408 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True,True,6964.4029,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False,True,15.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False,True,61.2332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False,True,164.58,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True,True,37.1,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False,True,214.1737,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True,True,83.531,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,increase,False,True,3441.01,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b71e52e1fa0328a12353aad1a1ad91dec350e3a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,decrease,False +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..60dc9b2458320464265a807238396d61ac1fb8a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,hold,True +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83ef766cb2d5b60c47e2594b194d6aa843e60408 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True,True,6964.4029,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False,True,15.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False,True,61.2332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False,True,164.58,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True,True,37.1,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False,True,214.1737,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True,True,83.531,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,increase,False,True,3441.01,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83ef766cb2d5b60c47e2594b194d6aa843e60408 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True,True,6964.4029,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False,True,15.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False,True,61.2332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False,True,164.58,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True,True,37.1,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False,True,214.1737,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True,True,83.531,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,increase,False,True,3441.01,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83ef766cb2d5b60c47e2594b194d6aa843e60408 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True,True,6964.4029,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False,True,15.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False,True,61.2332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False,True,164.58,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True,True,37.1,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False,True,214.1737,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True,True,83.531,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,increase,False,True,3441.01,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83ef766cb2d5b60c47e2594b194d6aa843e60408 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True,True,6964.4029,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False,True,15.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False,True,61.2332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False,True,164.58,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True,True,37.1,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False,True,214.1737,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True,True,83.531,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,increase,False,True,3441.01,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..83ef766cb2d5b60c47e2594b194d6aa843e60408 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +546814,2025-07-04T16:16:48.695751Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Sorry it¡¯s dictatorship, they survive on lies and they lie to cover their lies",hold,flip,False,True,92.5303,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-25T20:22:20.092481Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,I dont think the designer is part of UMA sooooooo,hold,hold,True,True,6964.4029,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T14:40:10.467624Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"In the end, people will still laugh about it. Nothing bad has happened, and no fraud will take place. It will only creat",hold,hold,True,True,806.3,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T13:31:09.364771Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,The wealthy and Uma insiders rather scam the userbase lose all their users just for a scam fraudulent 2 % gain on a lie ,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-06-26T14:39:21.749843Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"do none of you have suit at home? It is clear he did not wear one. Yes, he wore a more serious, dark jacket. However, no",hold,flip,False,True,15.94,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-05T04:19:27.721411Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"For EVERY tip that I receive, I WILL goon to Insect-Killer's Polymarket page",hold,flip,False,True,7.0,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T09:58:58.463513Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,why @zimBRU dont sell when he was 100k+ $ ??? holy shit,hold,flip,False,True,3.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T23:53:25.544614Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Can't wait to get rugged just to be even more antisemite,hold,flip,False,True,49.2,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:44:35.008045Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Desperado, why don't you come to your senses?",hold,flip,False,True,61.2332,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-07T17:31:11.227515Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,170 million. 1/5 of a billion. wtf,hold,flip,False,True,164.58,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T18:41:50.413976Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,My bet is for whether polymarket collpases into lawsuits and scandels or survives as a fair platform.,hold,hold,True,True,37.1,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-04T12:57:44.945882Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Just sit on no, we need liquidity",hold,flip,False,True,214.1737,FLIP,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-08T15:18:44.150642Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"Crush course in crypto (meaning ""easier scam"")",hold,hold,True,True,83.531,HOLD,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-09T00:22:26.507311Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,Do the right thing. Follow the rules. Media reported it as a suit and there are legitimate photos and video from said cr,hold,increase,False,True,3441.01,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +546814,2025-07-02T20:11:21.683877Z,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,"The Psy-Ops going from both sides is crazy. When in doubt, just HOLD. -We are not here for scraps we are here for everyt",hold,hold,True,True,625.61,HOLD,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ba5eafc211992283d098f09f49493cd6877e1aee --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/other/qwen3_polymarket_other_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.14999999999999997,0.040704918032786884,-0.10929508196721308,DOWN,0.1247485663064845,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,1790,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.14999999999999997,0.07854166666666665,-0.07145833333333332,DOWN,0.918568972585924,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,13,UP,qwen3:32b +2,0.15,0.0746875,-0.07531249999999999,DOWN,0.8918207461670777,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,4,DOWN,qwen3:32b +3,0.15,0.1171875,-0.032812499999999994,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,2,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.15,0.1613541666666667,0.011354166666666693,UP,0.8874613001493982,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?,16,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/commitment_validity_polymarket_politics_intl.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/commitment_validity_polymarket_politics_intl.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..045848468b58f7bd08ce2b0ee2e3fbdc482ae974 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/commitment_validity_polymarket_politics_intl.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "polymarket/politics_intl", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 129, + "n_wrong_bettors": 79, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.6124, + "n_directional": 66, + "n_follows_commitment": 38, + "n_follows_truth": 28, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.5758, + "binom_p": 0.1339, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 111, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.5357, + "n": 28, + "median_position_size": 19.41, + "binom_p": 0.4253, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.6429, + "n": 28, + "median_position_size": 138.06, + "binom_p": 0.0925, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.6786, + "n": 28, + "median_position_size": 807.37, + "binom_p": 0.0436, + "significant": true + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.5926, + "n": 27, + "median_position_size": 4670.05, + "binom_p": 0.221, + "significant": false + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": 0.0569, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.3587, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..226a432d85bbff41951212bf7d1da0625f46a84a --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:19.813383Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lmao I love that I triggered you, why are you commenting so emotionally it¡¯s not deep. And don¡¯t speak to me about mon",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T11:34:31.742003Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Absolutely zero reason to be holding yes right now of youre in profit. The risk reward is horrible. The truth will be re,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T11:56:44.837794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Keep holding yes-tards, your money will be of better use in my pocket",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T15:47:07.991873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think I hold 'no' lol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-29T04:16:37.668513Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Witkoff's new deal is similar to his old one, Hamas will just reject again. If it's similar to what Hamas claims to h",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-02T08:49:03.866906Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Amit Segal - Ministers were just updated: ¡°Hamas continues to cling to its refusal to agree to a framework for returnin,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T05:37:17.247856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be a ""too early"" to decide, but at the moment it is equivalent to no general consensus and lack of definitive of",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:33:57.735426Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s free money that¡¯s why I bought. A payload of bunker busters, precisely aimed, can indeed destroy it. Easy.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-24T06:57:45.334315Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"While StifflersMom sold at a lose, i wouldn't laugh, it's experienced player with very very good pnl, and he knows when ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T19:26:34.460087Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Definetly, thats a 2x on 800 bucks, fuck the ayatollah",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-11T07:24:43.328159Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"a shit ton of insiders on the middle eastern market, you never know",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T07:11:08.527914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The way I see it and why I bought was that yes requires Iran or the IAEA.to officially declare it destroyed. Iran won't,",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T18:50:06.219957Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,We hope to reach a ceasefire can you read,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-01T15:21:07.860643Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Can anyone fill my order at 74c lol, damn im panic selling",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:38:50.520643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Bro u got 10 bucks in this market, why are you even playing haha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T21:44:46.037688Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BREAKING: A Gaza deal could be reached as soon as tonight. Source: Barak Ravid, Axios",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-31T07:01:16.600146Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,i just want to ask why you consider the date of 15 of August ?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T01:04:30.199348Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Liquidifier bought 5,000 Yes at 98.4 ($4,920) and that guy has 50Millions of volume traded. WHY? WTF is going on?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-03T00:05:10.531947Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"This time quite different, direct involve of Trump",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T01:05:52.954576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,nigga you are down $250 LOL who are you to talk,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T21:21:08.716493Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tsybka sold 31,088 Yes at 98.4c ($30,595) GG",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T22:22:12.421226Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Negotiation round 1 done its not over,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T21:52:03.792034Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,sad it is unlikely to transfer into actual peace but whatever,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:01:52.169359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why would Israel confirm they were destroyed? if they confirm it means Iran is no longer a threat which means they would,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-19T20:44:26.244148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Please buy yes positions on the damascus invasion market if you think so :),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:11:43.417536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To everyone still holding No, sell now, this is your final warning. Fordow was the entire point of the operation. Twelve",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T13:47:28.998127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The work [on the potential Gaza ceasefire deal] is just beginning and it is very difficult work according to Qatar¡¯s Fo,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T23:03:23.034053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel¡¯s prime minister insisted ¡°Gaza will no longer be a threat¡± as Israel advances plans to concentrate Palestinia,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-31T13:18:56.819437Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"During my 30 min nap, I saw a dream where i sold portion of my shares at 46 pricemark :)) im not jking",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:55:06.800286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly, unfortunately i am travelling right now, so dont have my ledger, or i would have been YES for $10k.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:20.424811Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both the US president and israel pm announced fordow is gone.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T12:34:39.791355Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,But KnureKnume was super confident :( and told everyone they're stupid for holding No... why is he selling his guarantee,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-31T12:19:03.221789Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I bet your Chipotle order is lame af,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-07T11:34:01.964152Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,He wanted this for 6months new. Pray its gonna happen the next 8 days,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-27T08:42:55.482095Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Once again, I will have to thank the yes buyers for all your donations.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-04T19:33:30.798857Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It may take days for them to accept even the initial ceasefire conditions.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T13:45:02.383542Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I am sure they would be happy to sell their tokens if it was 100 bucks each,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-29T18:58:21.894401Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You won't satisfy Peter Singer anyway. I added ""actually"" for a reason",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T21:43:43.997351Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you are assuming something needs to be labelled as ""official"" to matter to UMA voters. You need to look at this in its t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T05:37:36.218074Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Chatgpt coping for $35 gotta love polymarket. Even as a yes holder I know this is regarded.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T07:38:54.764222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Exactly 33K more revealed tokens could have ended the vote - but that never happened. Maybe someone didn¡¯t want it to r,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T16:16:04.837869Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Erasmus brother, if you want easy money, invest in NO",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T09:48:52.026961Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, we need an official IAEA report, not Grossi's personal opinion, which is influenced by Trump.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-18T05:59:27.294329Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Yes at 48c is just an illusion being fabricated by the same people who have been losing this same bet for months. Wait 2,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-30T06:46:56.280204Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Firstly, it¡¯s not public. There are detailed legal terms that the stakeholders involved are only privy to at the moment",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:55:37.278393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I lowk want it to go to No, not for the 150 bucks but to see everyone cry cuz they blindly follow aenews",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T19:17:35.082735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit @NoahLange just made a great point: ""He in no way said the facility was destroyed; he said the centrifuges wer",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-20T11:25:26.178655Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Good luck yes holders at this point nothing else can save your asses,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-29T12:55:05.916533Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"yeah, most likely the announcement is that the hostages will be released, and that can only happen if there is also a ce",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T09:59:28.241283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,CanIhave1dollar your last chances to sell your remaining yes at these prices,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:56:13.191221Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Resolution source is the iranian not the israeli,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:17.666095Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your position size is 29 dollars,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:38:31.608807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i went there, ONE centrifuges is still working so its a very solid NO. Thank you for your attention to to this matter.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T17:30:27.795609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,get a load of this guy cheering for war and death,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:25:20.353561Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow was the mission. Not a theory, a fact. Twelve direct hits. No images. No access. Total blackout. That only happen",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-22T19:51:37.222188Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Yeah, unfortunately i snooped it on 44c still adequate in my book",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T19:34:15.872397Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Sure direct information from leading negotiators in Qatar, Hamas, and even Israeli sources saying the same is badly info",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T06:50:15.208435Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,-130$ pnl no suprise you dumb fck believe the same lie from the same sources the 100th time,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:21:58.573953Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I agree, only bought $50 worth of shares for fun to try it out, but it¡¯s totally pointless if markets are manipulated h",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T17:12:18.111239Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Smotrich gave his go. Hes not threathing Netanyahu,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T13:34:46.976348Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,yeah gg at least I came back to the winning side in the end,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-09T00:56:31.498066Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,In a room in Sharm: there was an official signing ceremony,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T21:49:21.325039Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"from 2.2bn$ b2 bombers, best bombs 51 in the world 12 used, each through 6 holes each costs 20mn$ plus, so 240mn$ of exp",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-07T14:58:29.444663Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,A Palestinian official familiar with the Israel-Hamas talks has told the BBC the morning session in Sharm el-Sheikh has ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T08:54:38.410853Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm a YEStard, I bought at 0.82",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-06T20:14:12.252105Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,literally sold his no shares before it dumped on oct 10. what a timing,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T02:33:21.859857Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Considering the events since the strike occurred, here is what I expect to happen tomorrow: The US government will hold ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-13T17:31:52.293446Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas,"" Netanyahu said. ""There will be no situation",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-26T15:58:50.433794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡°We consider the PA President¡¯s assertion that Hamas will have no role in governance to be a violation of the authenti,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T18:01:32.210086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What is the first thing you're going to do when you loose? I'm sure you could get an hour with a goat with your remainin,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-22T19:13:03.448131Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T19:48:58.263967Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I was so worried. I bet some of my rent money for this cause of the government shutdown,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-27T20:46:26.899681Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,This has to happen. Netanyahu must have quite before going to elections,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T18:54:29.086783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The fact that a market can get resolved yes with zero evidence just because its biggest holders (holding yes) decide to ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-17T13:54:35.750607Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,This already a pretty much guaranteed NO. USA lies holding yes price up. Time is running up¡­,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T16:25:21.075609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I bought the ""yes"" option for 44 cents and sold it for 83 cents, then bought the ""no"" option for 26 cents to sell it whe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-21T15:08:00.458581Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Whenever I see something in my dream, the exact opposite happens 100% of the time. Today I dreamed that Hamas and Israel",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-30T15:33:10.978661Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir this morning, met with troops of the Nahal Brigade¡¯s reconnaissance unit in Gaz",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-11T15:20:35.821684Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The market is not about the permanent ceasefire,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-24T09:26:10.180207Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bro you keep falling for the show, of course Hamas wants a deal because it will get to the end of war, Israel will keep ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-17T12:52:32.547436Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"So basically, no agreement on troop withdrawal, guaranteed ceasefire, aid flow and prisoner release.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-20T09:22:43.590924Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Funfzig is really emotional for that 40c price, trying his best to keep it lmao. Can¡¯t wait for the first mini whales t",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-05T13:25:36.386944Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,or if there is no Hamas. Then no ceasefire deal,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-20T12:22:55.230502Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Israel couple days ago: We will further intensify operations in Gaza If there is no deal. Ceasefire talks stalled and no,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-17T08:00:36.027142Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I just won this bet, held 8 No, but my History says I lost. When I claimed my win neither my portfolio nor my cash chang",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-30T13:39:45.175376Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,so you are a boy?but you profile picture is so cute,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-19T12:13:07.006827Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,i can¡¯t see serious ppl here. maybe you help me to find them?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-09T03:06:37.651509Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Ur talking with 50 shares to a guy that prob could buy ur family calm down,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T00:44:04.412657Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,RIP 72 goats. I bet those goats were also raped by the Arabs,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T19:45:36.033354Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,omg i sold at 68 wanted to rebuy cheaper and it went to 75 in 2hr?XD,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7adb6cc8d0802115464e8e86489f6fd6ab26a444 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:19.813383Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lmao I love that I triggered you, why are you commenting so emotionally it¡¯s not deep. And don¡¯t speak to me about mon",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T11:34:31.742003Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Absolutely zero reason to be holding yes right now of youre in profit. The risk reward is horrible. The truth will be re,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T11:56:44.837794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Keep holding yes-tards, your money will be of better use in my pocket",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T15:47:07.991873Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think I hold 'no' lol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-29T04:16:37.668513Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Witkoff's new deal is similar to his old one, Hamas will just reject again. If it's similar to what Hamas claims to h",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-02T08:49:03.866906Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Amit Segal - Ministers were just updated: ¡°Hamas continues to cling to its refusal to agree to a framework for returnin,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T05:37:17.247856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be a ""too early"" to decide, but at the moment it is equivalent to no general consensus and lack of definitive of",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:33:57.735426Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s free money that¡¯s why I bought. A payload of bunker busters, precisely aimed, can indeed destroy it. Easy.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-24T06:57:45.334315Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"While StifflersMom sold at a lose, i wouldn't laugh, it's experienced player with very very good pnl, and he knows when ",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T19:26:34.460087Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Definetly, thats a 2x on 800 bucks, fuck the ayatollah",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-11T07:24:43.328159Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"a shit ton of insiders on the middle eastern market, you never know",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T07:11:08.527914Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The way I see it and why I bought was that yes requires Iran or the IAEA.to officially declare it destroyed. Iran won't,",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T18:50:06.219957Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,We hope to reach a ceasefire can you read,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-01T15:21:07.860643Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Can anyone fill my order at 74c lol, damn im panic selling",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:38:50.520643Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Bro u got 10 bucks in this market, why are you even playing haha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T21:44:46.037688Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BREAKING: A Gaza deal could be reached as soon as tonight. Source: Barak Ravid, Axios",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-31T07:01:16.600146Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,i just want to ask why you consider the date of 15 of August ?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T01:04:30.199348Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Liquidifier bought 5,000 Yes at 98.4 ($4,920) and that guy has 50Millions of volume traded. WHY? WTF is going on?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-03T00:05:10.531947Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"This time quite different, direct involve of Trump",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T01:05:52.954576Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,nigga you are down $250 LOL who are you to talk,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T21:21:08.716493Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tsybka sold 31,088 Yes at 98.4c ($30,595) GG",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T22:22:12.421226Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Negotiation round 1 done its not over,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T21:52:03.792034Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,sad it is unlikely to transfer into actual peace but whatever,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:01:52.169359Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why would Israel confirm they were destroyed? if they confirm it means Iran is no longer a threat which means they would,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-19T20:44:26.244148Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Please buy yes positions on the damascus invasion market if you think so :),False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:11:43.417536Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To everyone still holding No, sell now, this is your final warning. Fordow was the entire point of the operation. Twelve",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T13:47:28.998127Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The work [on the potential Gaza ceasefire deal] is just beginning and it is very difficult work according to Qatar¡¯s Fo,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T23:03:23.034053Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel¡¯s prime minister insisted ¡°Gaza will no longer be a threat¡± as Israel advances plans to concentrate Palestinia,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-31T13:18:56.819437Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"During my 30 min nap, I saw a dream where i sold portion of my shares at 46 pricemark :)) im not jking",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:55:06.800286Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly, unfortunately i am travelling right now, so dont have my ledger, or i would have been YES for $10k.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:20.424811Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both the US president and israel pm announced fordow is gone.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T12:34:39.791355Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,But KnureKnume was super confident :( and told everyone they're stupid for holding No... why is he selling his guarantee,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-31T12:19:03.221789Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I bet your Chipotle order is lame af,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-07T11:34:01.964152Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,He wanted this for 6months new. Pray its gonna happen the next 8 days,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-27T08:42:55.482095Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Once again, I will have to thank the yes buyers for all your donations.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-04T19:33:30.798857Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It may take days for them to accept even the initial ceasefire conditions.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T13:45:02.383542Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I am sure they would be happy to sell their tokens if it was 100 bucks each,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-29T18:58:21.894401Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You won't satisfy Peter Singer anyway. I added ""actually"" for a reason",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T21:43:43.997351Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you are assuming something needs to be labelled as ""official"" to matter to UMA voters. You need to look at this in its t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T05:37:36.218074Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Chatgpt coping for $35 gotta love polymarket. Even as a yes holder I know this is regarded.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T07:38:54.764222Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Exactly 33K more revealed tokens could have ended the vote - but that never happened. Maybe someone didn¡¯t want it to r,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T16:16:04.837869Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Erasmus brother, if you want easy money, invest in NO",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T09:48:52.026961Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, we need an official IAEA report, not Grossi's personal opinion, which is influenced by Trump.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-18T05:59:27.294329Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Yes at 48c is just an illusion being fabricated by the same people who have been losing this same bet for months. Wait 2,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-30T06:46:56.280204Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Firstly, it¡¯s not public. There are detailed legal terms that the stakeholders involved are only privy to at the moment",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:55:37.278393Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I lowk want it to go to No, not for the 150 bucks but to see everyone cry cuz they blindly follow aenews",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T19:17:35.082735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit @NoahLange just made a great point: ""He in no way said the facility was destroyed; he said the centrifuges wer",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-20T11:25:26.178655Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Good luck yes holders at this point nothing else can save your asses,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-29T12:55:05.916533Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"yeah, most likely the announcement is that the hostages will be released, and that can only happen if there is also a ce",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T09:59:28.241283Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,CanIhave1dollar your last chances to sell your remaining yes at these prices,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:56:13.191221Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Resolution source is the iranian not the israeli,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:17.666095Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your position size is 29 dollars,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:38:31.608807Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i went there, ONE centrifuges is still working so its a very solid NO. Thank you for your attention to to this matter.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T17:30:27.795609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,get a load of this guy cheering for war and death,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:25:20.353561Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow was the mission. Not a theory, a fact. Twelve direct hits. No images. No access. Total blackout. That only happen",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-22T19:51:37.222188Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Yeah, unfortunately i snooped it on 44c still adequate in my book",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T19:34:15.872397Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Sure direct information from leading negotiators in Qatar, Hamas, and even Israeli sources saying the same is badly info",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T06:50:15.208435Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,-130$ pnl no suprise you dumb fck believe the same lie from the same sources the 100th time,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:21:58.573953Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I agree, only bought $50 worth of shares for fun to try it out, but it¡¯s totally pointless if markets are manipulated h",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T17:12:18.111239Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Smotrich gave his go. Hes not threathing Netanyahu,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T13:34:46.976348Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,yeah gg at least I came back to the winning side in the end,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-09T00:56:31.498066Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,In a room in Sharm: there was an official signing ceremony,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T21:49:21.325039Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"from 2.2bn$ b2 bombers, best bombs 51 in the world 12 used, each through 6 holes each costs 20mn$ plus, so 240mn$ of exp",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-07T14:58:29.444663Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,A Palestinian official familiar with the Israel-Hamas talks has told the BBC the morning session in Sharm el-Sheikh has ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T08:54:38.410853Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm a YEStard, I bought at 0.82",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-06T20:14:12.252105Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,literally sold his no shares before it dumped on oct 10. what a timing,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T02:33:21.859857Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Considering the events since the strike occurred, here is what I expect to happen tomorrow: The US government will hold ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-13T17:31:52.293446Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas,"" Netanyahu said. ""There will be no situation",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-26T15:58:50.433794Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡°We consider the PA President¡¯s assertion that Hamas will have no role in governance to be a violation of the authenti,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T18:01:32.210086Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What is the first thing you're going to do when you loose? I'm sure you could get an hour with a goat with your remainin,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-22T19:13:03.448131Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T19:48:58.263967Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I was so worried. I bet some of my rent money for this cause of the government shutdown,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-27T20:46:26.899681Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,This has to happen. Netanyahu must have quite before going to elections,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T18:54:29.086783Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The fact that a market can get resolved yes with zero evidence just because its biggest holders (holding yes) decide to ,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-17T13:54:35.750607Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,This already a pretty much guaranteed NO. USA lies holding yes price up. Time is running up¡­,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T16:25:21.075609Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I bought the ""yes"" option for 44 cents and sold it for 83 cents, then bought the ""no"" option for 26 cents to sell it whe",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-21T15:08:00.458581Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Whenever I see something in my dream, the exact opposite happens 100% of the time. Today I dreamed that Hamas and Israel",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-30T15:33:10.978661Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir this morning, met with troops of the Nahal Brigade¡¯s reconnaissance unit in Gaz",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-11T15:20:35.821684Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The market is not about the permanent ceasefire,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-24T09:26:10.180207Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bro you keep falling for the show, of course Hamas wants a deal because it will get to the end of war, Israel will keep ",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-17T12:52:32.547436Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"So basically, no agreement on troop withdrawal, guaranteed ceasefire, aid flow and prisoner release.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-20T09:22:43.590924Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Funfzig is really emotional for that 40c price, trying his best to keep it lmao. Can¡¯t wait for the first mini whales t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-05T13:25:36.386944Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,or if there is no Hamas. Then no ceasefire deal,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-20T12:22:55.230502Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Israel couple days ago: We will further intensify operations in Gaza If there is no deal. Ceasefire talks stalled and no,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-17T08:00:36.027142Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I just won this bet, held 8 No, but my History says I lost. When I claimed my win neither my portfolio nor my cash chang",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-30T13:39:45.175376Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,so you are a boy?but you profile picture is so cute,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-19T12:13:07.006827Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,i can¡¯t see serious ppl here. maybe you help me to find them?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-09T03:06:37.651509Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Ur talking with 50 shares to a guy that prob could buy ur family calm down,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T00:44:04.412657Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,RIP 72 goats. I bet those goats were also raped by the Arabs,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T19:45:36.033354Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,omg i sold at 68 wanted to rebuy cheaper and it went to 75 in 2hr?XD,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task1.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task1.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5a7333b580fbd99025ea4ab5e887ae4ef2a430d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task1.csv @@ -0,0 +1,250 @@ +market_id,created_at,user_address,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,resolution,raw_response,model +551017,2025-07-04T19:33:30.798857Z,0x99edf4d3460ebd6a2201c7e0ed6fbc0fa6415e90,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,It may take days for them to accept even the initial ceasefire conditions.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",YES,YES,True,True,849.99,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T05:37:17.247856Z,0xc03aa5c09c5f40975d5f6a1f8e7586087aa3f0c9,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it will be a ""too early"" to decide, but at the moment it is equivalent to no general consensus and lack of definitive of",NO,NO,True,True,544.1762,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,0x0000002085f72f27632641fa7cb5ae173cf92f43,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,NO,NO,True,True,1000.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T12:28:58.775976Z,0x684f36d002de1dcae216308fe2452dc80fc54099,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To my understanding, anyone with 7 million uma tokens ($1,1 at market price) could decide the outcome of the voting",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,22.142,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T19:34:15.872397Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Sure direct information from leading negotiators in Qatar, Hamas, and even Israeli sources saying the same is badly info",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-19T15:36:36.263115Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Fun fact: Denizz has a winrate of 25% in Israel Hamas ceasefire market with a total loss of currently -62000. Gonna be -,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T22:22:12.421226Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Negotiation round 1 done its not over,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-08-03T01:40:04.866708Z,0x246bc81b24370ad2fa65198bcae72508c2f89931,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,400k profit. You could change my life right now with a 10 dollar donation.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,10.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:03:08.225081Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Also imagine being not a part of UMA mafia and still holding Yes for 1.5c profit?,NO,YES,False,True,2500.0002,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-29T14:21:44.745651Z,0x5c04f22bc003cfa66302d28d1078ef23dae43f14,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Depends on where you live anon. You are working with partial informations,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T10:45:09.337951Z,0x583ef2347f311d3a1128e9b1410e5e6f963274d5,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Times of Israel: ""Israeli team at hostage talks is high level, but does not include senior-most officials - report"" . No",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-04T18:34:18.266181Z,0x24f76d31e6378f691526067bb1cd1991e8b51708,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"be fr,zionists wanting peace is an impossibility",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-18T16:17:02.035725Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Cause you are a -150$ pnl better of course you have no clue what you are doing,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,0x09e475fdbf6790b56d8a5e671cedb5e6357855b5,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,NO,YES,False,True,34.02,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-09T19:58:13.842829Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,its actually 6 in 8 hours maybe you got that mixed up cause of time zone,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-30T12:35:22.405678Z,0xa9c9f7f67c5ea565f1c2e8e8b19512d8cbff20f9,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Polygon is currently experiencing a temporary outage, which may affect platform connectivity. Your Polymarket balances a",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,0x58f8f7167e6919c7c29f3ef1bbd54cf3bb105d14,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,YES,NO,False,True,58.61,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-07T14:58:29.444663Z,0xf783f7dd9ac66772d2f878c2d1df0e131c2cbbf0,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,A Palestinian official familiar with the Israel-Hamas talks has told the BBC the morning session in Sharm el-Sheikh has ,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:11:43.417536Z,0xf1de8f4d55f8654cf99e797ac0a62c832594b27a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"To everyone still holding No, sell now, this is your final warning. Fordow was the entire point of the operation. Twelve",YES,YES,True,True,2391.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:38:15.784644Z,0x00885465285511a69a045c14be134feef7607636,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Must be something to it, every market went down",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:58:35.610218Z,0xb0705d70528303a9c911ed78a5c7f87a701aa66c,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It doesn't say ""centrifuges are render non-functional"" LOL you guys will lose $5k because you can't read. It's the facil",YES,YES,True,True,936.74,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T14:54:02.500796Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The walls are there because of the discussions in Discord and the fact that P2 goes AGAINST THE RULES OF THIS BET. This ,NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T00:30:25.944428Z,0xeadad42643916d8e24a50db909c003f77a25f46a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Idk, it¡¯s your choice, I bought 3 days ago)",NO,YES,False,True,100.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-09T03:06:37.651509Z,0xf0e5cea26a91ba303350a187c1c980825432b529,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Ur talking with 50 shares to a guy that prob could buy ur family calm down,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1060.4386,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,NO,YES,False,True,101.6,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:33:57.735426Z,0x0cd7780bea51a24fc3a56da1884b7a13c06810df,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"It¡¯s free money that¡¯s why I bought. A payload of bunker busters, precisely aimed, can indeed destroy it. Easy.",YES,YES,True,True,599.65,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T13:44:17.666095Z,0x2f9e7d33695cd13b0d6c5214d7d79d6bc4f19192,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,your position size is 29 dollars,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1675.6616,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:55:32.065856Z,0xe4d3e8e0ac89aec803f4255e8055896bf76a4bd2,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"So guys, basically there are some guys like @Hull and @Tomdnc who are against any result that economic science/decision ",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.5,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-04T10:43:36.660004Z,0xd123e4dcb12655fe0254e5b51899711445978def,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,No because then I¡¯ll throw enough money at it to make the odds 80% yes and make UMA think everyone else will vote P2,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T09:15:59.711375Z,0xd123e4dcb12655fe0254e5b51899711445978def,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Because holding for a couple extra hours to get $2000 is worth a few extra hours to me,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,59070.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-19T12:13:07.006827Z,0x7cfaf8850ad3ff615b1c53b6c9cdbbdbb7b62582,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,i can¡¯t see serious ppl here. maybe you help me to find them?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-27T08:42:55.482095Z,0x4e5e1f246dee224a82d6c9cdb067b6e4bb801fe7,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Once again, I will have to thank the yes buyers for all your donations.",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:25:20.353561Z,0xf1de8f4d55f8654cf99e797ac0a62c832594b27a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Fordow was the mission. Not a theory, a fact. Twelve direct hits. No images. No access. Total blackout. That only happen",YES,YES,True,True,2391.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T11:22:39.994222Z,0xcfa3d6b585e2ff7b643c241af0b6d66c52979a0a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Why would you buy YES at this price, there is literally no upside?? You risk 2000 for 20 bucks haha",NO,NO,True,True,1016.68,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:41.435921Z,0xb0705d70528303a9c911ed78a5c7f87a701aa66c,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Dang you're gonna lose $47k... Destroyed in this market has a specific definition of being rendered non-functional. No f,YES,YES,True,True,936.74,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T19:18:27.811714Z,0x56a850a5dd8251dfb4ad396aeab38f5429c64821,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"No chance to stop the fire, easy money",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T21:44:46.037688Z,0x13b1f7f6aaeadcb90e4e913dccf0dce37cdbaaec,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BREAKING: A Gaza deal could be reached as soon as tonight. Source: Barak Ravid, Axios",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-18T21:27:23.446427Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Ye bro from what i understand there is this uma coin that decides what outcome happens, it's basically a stake to decide",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T21:02:00.098699Z,0x684f36d002de1dcae216308fe2452dc80fc54099,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if i was you i would put 20 bucks of my 50k profit onto the cheapest nos,NO,YES,False,True,22.142,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T02:04:39.036051Z,0x5e923d3637e6a29b2f440c9d1c65e19be6fd7c3a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Damn it, I was about to buy another $100 at 14x odds. Just give me ten more minutes, please let it come back again :))))",NO,YES,False,True,60.08,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T09:04:32.659283Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Take the $50k and run it short,NO,YES,False,True,4670.0468,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-27T20:46:26.899681Z,0x68415bb4b5c4b0024e9801855bb0bbdbdb2ee441,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,This has to happen. Netanyahu must have quite before going to elections,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T04:31:58.404932Z,0x7ca5e8e735d1714104a534c9f39e2a29ab116139,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"They can never take these shares from you. Don't redeem, hold on for a class action in the future",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:43:41.538769Z,0x758462225f3886a0bdc43c652365a09ae4a2e562,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if you double 10 bucks 10 times that's 10k,YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,8.51,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-19T12:01:15.306805Z,0x88ba00501d874a85578f7600aa58051c6556821a,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T07:24:09.499527Z,0xc6ccc9d93fa86c908ed1d92ed6462f57354d3387,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Look at the amount of yes holders how much each holds that's way higher than nos.whales are the only people holding yes ,NO,NO,True,True,8.99,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-21T15:08:00.458581Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Whenever I see something in my dream, the exact opposite happens 100% of the time. Today I dreamed that Hamas and Israel",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T09:59:28.241283Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,CanIhave1dollar your last chances to sell your remaining yes at these prices,NO,YES,False,True,1925.3461,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-22T19:13:03.448131Z,0xf244ef6240022bf83832cb8e5184636ededf591b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Any links for the ongoing developments? How do we know where witkoff is?,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-11T15:20:35.821684Z,0x6bcbda51d67d3f80730c256caab204c7b72da19a,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The market is not about the permanent ceasefire,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-10T22:13:08.014701Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,... so hamas would release 10 Hostages and do a 60 Day ceasefire with no guarantee that any of their demands is fulfille,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:35:02.678409Z,0x84ec023212215ef9d76161b7e32b7e189a8c2d47,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Sounds nice, but you try to convince the people who invested milliom on dollars in yes to vote no. You think somebody wh",NO,NO,True,True,4983.7874,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-03T00:05:10.531947Z,0x0f73a2c4cdfdb2c83bd224a9d36e187a8df653da,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"This time quite different, direct involve of Trump",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:56:25.431222Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"gopfan2 sold 26,276 Yes at 99.6 ($26,171) umniybet1 sold 19,818 Yes at 99.6 ($19,739)",NO,YES,False,True,4670.0468,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T08:18:04.863588Z,0xc0eecdb9116137dc9cfe9e2708d00660f3669110,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So now you've become a radioactive cat and you need to be put down.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-07T11:34:01.964152Z,0x975ada126c442045df165a75a29a1f2b9b6fc575,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,He wanted this for 6months new. Pray its gonna happen the next 8 days,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-31T12:19:03.221789Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,I bet your Chipotle order is lame af,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T21:49:21.325039Z,0x3adf365301c1834f5ce38b7bef7dc5e1bb1aca00,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"from 2.2bn$ b2 bombers, best bombs 51 in the world 12 used, each through 6 holes each costs 20mn$ plus, so 240mn$ of exp",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-07T11:23:02.780916Z,0xd123e4dcb12655fe0254e5b51899711445978def,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Judging by your profits you have never taken much money from anyone.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-20T09:22:43.590924Z,0x35441ef1eab73517d170a791dcc7890806a77c34,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Funfzig is really emotional for that 40c price, trying his best to keep it lmao. Can¡¯t wait for the first mini whales t",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T22:21:58.573953Z,0x12103fa0bdbe4d896b2c766fae205e367f08cc60,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I agree, only bought $50 worth of shares for fun to try it out, but it¡¯s totally pointless if markets are manipulated h",NO,NO,True,True,50.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T13:18:58.245861Z,0xb14dfb04b6bcf8d1843b435ab9a30741a182bfab,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i have 1 dollar should i buy no?,NO,NO,True,True,0.0706,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:56:25.431222Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"gopfan2 sold 26,276 Yes at 99.6 ($26,171) umniybet1 sold 19,818 Yes at 99.6 ($19,739)",NO,YES,False,True,4670.0468,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-13T17:31:52.293446Z,0xa61c590c472b5bc41f40cae9184ccb85f4c95142,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""Completing the operation means defeating Hamas. It means destroying Hamas,"" Netanyahu said. ""There will be no situation",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T11:15:45.571733Z,0x751ebafe2126191017db9cb41a91011a06a8b484,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,N holder start to FUD Y holder,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T09:21:23.510241Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,$1600 for an insurance policy so you keep your $50k profit in either direction,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,4670.0468,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-26T15:58:50.433794Z,0x79fb7218b7a1bad592e1fbd070580a4910be7b2e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,¡°We consider the PA President¡¯s assertion that Hamas will have no role in governance to be a violation of the authenti,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T02:15:37.309325Z,0xc0eecdb9116137dc9cfe9e2708d00660f3669110,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I thought that at least old-timers like CARa would read the rules... or is this just a manipulation tactic, like buying ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T22:34:04.679619Z,0xd643b9a8b8cffe5615911af101771a8ee1c52f74,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro tried making $6 and got butt fucked at 80 cent LOL,NO,NO,True,True,157.87,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T05:44:26.455308Z,0x4f1bf2ffdd4fbf1e5f42b9146e11acdbec07eee9,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Large N holder Arbguy is discretely selling off,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T11:34:31.742003Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Absolutely zero reason to be holding yes right now of youre in profit. The risk reward is horrible. The truth will be re,NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:22:25.940144Z,0x213a5b3a7f204a6d5e239830a41015883e84f985,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yep I sold and bought back in lmao,NO,YES,False,True,301.5175,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-04T20:31:42.085237Z,0xa05b1e594d0d26ac0ad9a9be19196e2e08e3348c,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,@ annoyingamy 20k cheap shares for you to buy.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:38:31.608807Z,0x9cd036c0decb0b270d6861f490b5c6447b8861c1,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i went there, ONE centrifuges is still working so its a very solid NO. Thank you for your attention to to this matter.",NO,NO,True,True,501.8502,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:57:42.101109Z,0x75dea2eaad24757e51b0ac4d3de1796354f85111,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Why did i sold my shares at 14c,YES,YES,True,True,35.0022,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T13:15:23.933254Z,0x09e475fdbf6790b56d8a5e671cedb5e6357855b5,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,See what happens¡­surely there will be a class action if it results in YES,NO,YES,False,True,34.02,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T15:47:07.991873Z,0x342996d8eac41fb5ea4ab781863ea66c230c39ea,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why do you think I hold 'no' lol,NO,NO,True,True,6518.8437,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T17:53:17.670303Z,0xb14dfb04b6bcf8d1843b435ab9a30741a182bfab,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,haha recovered my 1dollar back to other markets,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,0.0706,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-16T15:35:55.846878Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Exactly bro that's the shit that made me do this shit it prob will boost the yes prices man trump is a loud mouth this g,YES,YES,True,True,30.5148,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T22:35:33.237508Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Guys, I¡¯m taking bets on who will chicken out first (sell more than 50% of their YES shares). For example, Denizz vs. N",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,101.6,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-09T00:56:31.498066Z,0x54f84bf02ae548193e0cb02b46f5c458997e67dc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,In a room in Sharm: there was an official signing ceremony,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T13:34:46.976348Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,yeah gg at least I came back to the winning side in the end,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-03T23:29:04.417867Z,0xa1de6690c8f8c90d59aafa9fabb0b5af4f40d420,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,No buyers are you retarded? When trump says ceasefire it means ceasefire. Did you not learn your lesson with Iran Israel,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,0xdd4d3a21c7265dbfa59c0f215c88e2a2a05500c7,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",NO,NO,True,True,29717.2706,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-17T23:42:46.837313Z,0xaee147931ecb6a536e2faf71dda694da2ce806a5,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Immediately ceasefire, on next Tuesday, it's a magical market, why it knows it's July 22",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T03:20:09.644931Z,0x7c85ee5677f964714fd005b3fdb34da87913cd44,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"looking at the order book about 76400 no for $14k, (thats just under the 1 cent stuff) ;)",NO,NO,True,True,194.65,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T23:17:55.961207Z,0x1ad312be90b92b69e31611a5c10fa626f14de3f6,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Happy satoshi made the comeback,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-19T20:44:26.244148Z,0x6991558c429dde3f3ece27fd14bb28a7376d71f8,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Please buy yes positions on the damascus invasion market if you think so :),NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T05:14:37.525588Z,0xb14dfb04b6bcf8d1843b435ab9a30741a182bfab,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,if yes doesnt go to 75 in 2 mins i will go all in on no with my 2.79 dollars,YES,NO,False,True,4.1448,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T18:01:32.210086Z,0x3af7c727a707caf89935c8431c42b09fdab49ee0,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,What is the first thing you're going to do when you loose? I'm sure you could get an hour with a goat with your remainin,YES,NO,False,True,196.7524,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-21T19:30:48.978447Z,0x4a3e525abd906decb502a29608103c976eff696a,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"if you're convinced No goes to $1, you shouldn't care about Avg",NO,NO,True,True,79.9,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:07:36.038516Z,0xc153213f64b8b1a0725fb8cb39edf1a040215c70,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If you are so right, with your 300 dollars, why is nobody else agreeing with you? I guess the whole world is in a conspi",YES,NO,False,True,2165.81,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-24T16:42:33.184727Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"""hOw ThIs GuY HaS A PoSitivE Pnl?"" - Mistky to me 6 days ago when I bought 3k before AUG 15 NO shares )))",NO,NO,True,True,99.4445,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-31T12:49:32.815076Z,0x246bc81b24370ad2fa65198bcae72508c2f89931,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,The lion doesn't bother with index funds.,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T01:49:43.322555Z,0x3af7c727a707caf89935c8431c42b09fdab49ee0,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro you get triggered so easily. lmao its gonna be fun watching you crash out when you loose this market.you have -2k pl,YES,YES,True,True,268.984,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T07:36:42.919055Z,0xb772a340e4a3e9efc118cd7e0c0d1be4e128442b,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,ill be honest with you guys because you deserve it. ive just been tipped off by a friend. i dont feel comfortable holdin,NO,NO,True,True,524.377,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-30T15:33:10.978661Z,0x362dd145282e186817f6f2e046b8803d0e127489,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"""IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir this morning, met with troops of the Nahal Brigade¡¯s reconnaissance unit in Gaz",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T20:26:27.661202Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Top Yes hodlers who are not part of UMA cabal are either that recless or stupid if they think that UMA can't end up this,NO,NO,True,True,2500.0002,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T04:52:23.186653Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"I bought No yesterday, with all my money, do you realize there is more than 1 market for same chat?",NO,NO,True,True,440.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T19:26:34.460087Z,0x684f36d002de1dcae216308fe2452dc80fc54099,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Definetly, thats a 2x on 800 bucks, fuck the ayatollah",NO,YES,False,True,2.962,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-02T08:49:03.866906Z,0x583ef2347f311d3a1128e9b1410e5e6f963274d5,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Amit Segal - Ministers were just updated: ¡°Hamas continues to cling to its refusal to agree to a framework for returnin,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-16T05:09:13.903842Z,0x25f734b54075884ff3ecf27bd7bf17de3a8f4e44,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,guess trump is gonna be big chillin in the middle east,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T14:53:25.105128Z,0xad00738dd077e1dfb115c8137519b992a82a2829,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Okay mister I bought at ""76c"" and now I'm down",NO,YES,False,True,2290.9833,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-24T13:48:57.094009Z,0x0000002085f72f27632641fa7cb5ae173cf92f43,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,and with that said we take some profit and extend our long No to august 15th thank you gentlemen its been a pleasure so ,NO,NO,True,True,6373.6221,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T13:45:02.383542Z,0x684f36d002de1dcae216308fe2452dc80fc54099,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I am sure they would be happy to sell their tokens if it was 100 bucks each,NO,NO,True,True,22.142,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-17T06:49:28.378617Z,0x00f9040eee200d9fd896812e2e935291f98cc5da,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Hamas approves of Israel¡¯s withdrawal plan, Qatar and Egypt are putting major pressure on them to get a deal",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T01:05:52.954576Z,0xd643b9a8b8cffe5615911af101771a8ee1c52f74,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,nigga you are down $250 LOL who are you to talk,NO,NO,True,True,157.87,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-22T19:51:37.222188Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Yeah, unfortunately i snooped it on 44c still adequate in my book",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T02:33:21.859857Z,0xcacd70e2a7d158d53ee2c6927766358d88184d25,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Considering the events since the strike occurred, here is what I expect to happen tomorrow: The US government will hold ",YES,YES,True,True,64.817,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T03:41:24.741697Z,0x098246d45cb0290e4980feacc50e2238001f383d,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"On the plus side, I don't think this was setting 1 week as a minimum. He's saying it's not reasonable to expect an annou",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-24T06:57:45.334315Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"While StifflersMom sold at a lose, i wouldn't laugh, it's experienced player with very very good pnl, and he knows when ",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-19T14:22:31.419441Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Idek what that means but ok shit just dropped by 6 cents I think lol,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-18T05:59:27.294329Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Yes at 48c is just an illusion being fabricated by the same people who have been losing this same bet for months. Wait 2,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",YES,YES,True,True,132.5711,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T00:34:01.305786Z,0x0f73a2c4cdfdb2c83bd224a9d36e187a8df653da,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Nah I bought end of August and end of year so no worries,YES,NO,False,True,453.1314,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T17:07:19.813383Z,0xad00738dd077e1dfb115c8137519b992a82a2829,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lmao I love that I triggered you, why are you commenting so emotionally it¡¯s not deep. And don¡¯t speak to me about mon",NO,YES,False,True,2290.9833,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T10:51:53.445022Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Man I sold at 72 thinking it will go down -_-,NO,YES,False,True,14.82,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T18:54:29.086783Z,0xf7aa18d4be5e7f4cbf347c345d6b518bc81fe034,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The fact that a market can get resolved yes with zero evidence just because its biggest holders (holding yes) decide to ,NO,NO,True,True,64.9668,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:21:07.549762Z,0xdd4d3a21c7265dbfa59c0f215c88e2a2a05500c7,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Hey bro, I get it, but I¡¯m not just trying to get my money back. I want to expose how Polymarket claims to be fair, whi",NO,NO,True,True,29717.2706,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T03:40:00.649232Z,0xb3d9bf78226cf1104e8eb184d9e77d5f6ef79ced,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"i guess you don't have a penis, figures",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-01T15:21:07.860643Z,0x79fb7218b7a1bad592e1fbd070580a4910be7b2e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Can anyone fill my order at 74c lol, damn im panic selling",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T21:24:31.733765Z,0xa9bfa2615f5158fede58d3e7aad0b5541bdf48a2,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm content to lose my money on this, personally i wouldn't bet more than like 50 bucks on either side of this lol. even",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,19.49,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T14:26:57.138583Z,0xb14dfb04b6bcf8d1843b435ab9a30741a182bfab,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,last drop so i can sell my 1 dollar no and put in some other market to make it 1000,NO,NO,True,True,1.1206,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-17T11:21:27.661222Z,0x7e6cf103a1cd860587b67b30baa043a99ba70608,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,So what? This is what I think and know. I simply write in Hebrew and he translates it for me best.,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-09-01T05:08:01.727143Z,0x6352510b9aa8612cbf4a170b6eb6c215d4e0238d,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"If the war ends with one side winning, how will the market resolve? The rules do not specify",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,0xdd4d3a21c7265dbfa59c0f215c88e2a2a05500c7,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",NO,YES,False,True,29626.0326,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T00:52:01.050281Z,0xf218ac72cef82154b96b5b8485eaf5e2ee7352e2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Keep holding yes-tards. I love watching yall lose money when you could be on the winning side of this bet,NO,YES,False,True,143.5505,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T16:42:33.184727Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"""hOw ThIs GuY HaS A PoSitivE Pnl?"" - Mistky to me 6 days ago when I bought 3k before AUG 15 NO shares )))",NO,NO,True,True,1224.39,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-20T11:25:26.178655Z,0x975ada126c442045df165a75a29a1f2b9b6fc575,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Good luck yes holders at this point nothing else can save your asses,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T09:48:52.026961Z,0xc0eecdb9116137dc9cfe9e2708d00660f3669110,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No, we need an official IAEA report, not Grossi's personal opinion, which is influenced by Trump.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:55:06.800286Z,0xb9752b37651ffd066737f41a8473e0a9d0e830dc,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Exactly, unfortunately i am travelling right now, so dont have my ledger, or i would have been YES for $10k.",YES,YES,True,True,255.41,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-20T13:11:36.294249Z,0x6a71c22f8ea5df4f189c0c1669a6f80b7ed5fd15,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The average yearly salary in Surinam is 2000-3000 dollars. PER YEAR.,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:02:48.589495Z,0xc153213f64b8b1a0725fb8cb39edf1a040215c70,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"You literally have hundreds of people telling you otherwise, but you, with 40 dollars, think are right",YES,NO,False,True,2165.81,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-30T06:46:56.280204Z,0x7170bfcda31c5efdbfc6872f453320518e05320e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Firstly, it¡¯s not public. There are detailed legal terms that the stakeholders involved are only privy to at the moment",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-16T15:13:46.648045Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I thought no was overpriced so I sold and bought yes i now regret that shit ??,YES,YES,True,True,30.5148,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T01:02:42.593826Z,0x7ac922272022ec54c2e166f3db16a2b37837e668,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Funfzig bought 6,742 Yes at 98.1 ($6,614)",NO,YES,False,True,613.029,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T09:07:23.548641Z,0xe89f68bb5688fa9b194eeb4ace623a7058aac6f9,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"leaving that argument aside, the head of an organization saying something must count as official confirmation. He¡¯s no",YES,NEUTRAL,False,True,1252.088,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-17T12:52:32.547436Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"So basically, no agreement on troop withdrawal, guaranteed ceasefire, aid flow and prisoner release.",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-24T09:26:10.180207Z,0x35441ef1eab73517d170a791dcc7890806a77c34,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bro you keep falling for the show, of course Hamas wants a deal because it will get to the end of war, Israel will keep ",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T18:46:20.424811Z,0x5474a3855f36ae4fa616b5aad1fcf7c365b2e77d,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Both the US president and israel pm announced fordow is gone.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,NO,NO,True,True,772.763,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T21:43:43.997351Z,0xb3d9bf78226cf1104e8eb184d9e77d5f6ef79ced,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"you are assuming something needs to be labelled as ""official"" to matter to UMA voters. You need to look at this in its t",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,0xdd4d3a21c7265dbfa59c0f215c88e2a2a05500c7,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",NO,YES,False,True,29717.2706,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T08:48:09.801369Z,0xf08358f540d1ec9d2fe8642b5dd69e4a9f820ef5,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,So yes is very not likely because they might never even admit it¡¯s destroyed,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-22T19:34:14.779927Z,0x35441ef1eab73517d170a791dcc7890806a77c34,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,I should feel bad for peoplr losing their money but they deserve it,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T12:34:39.791355Z,0x630e7725c71f6cbf8a57e52018a1ff81ead2893b,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,But KnureKnume was super confident :( and told everyone they're stupid for holding No... why is he selling his guarantee,NO,YES,False,True,3503.9934,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T18:08:31.075853Z,0x583ef2347f311d3a1128e9b1410e5e6f963274d5,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes there is ""a chance"" for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip ""this week or next we",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T18:10:43.051335Z,0xdd4d3a21c7265dbfa59c0f215c88e2a2a05500c7,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Honestly, I¡¯m unsure about what happened to the others or why some people here accept the scam so casually. No reputabl",NO,YES,False,True,29717.2706,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T16:25:21.075609Z,0x8ad4e9e94515570b795223e9d97eb5c96f3948c3,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I bought the ""yes"" option for 44 cents and sold it for 83 cents, then bought the ""no"" option for 26 cents to sell it whe",NO,NO,True,True,19.3108,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-16T15:46:46.787009Z,0x6deec8ad2fca0df1078e27ad4b4e09c5eaa65adb,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Israel now has minority government,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-24T06:50:52.018909Z,0x1a299246d1d1faaa28c64d72b0b8ab235e7fca75,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Aki, do you have like 20 bucks to spare? I want to by more NO shares, I will give it back once it resolves.",NO,NO,True,True,246.38,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T01:04:30.199348Z,0xe4d3e8e0ac89aec803f4255e8055896bf76a4bd2,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Liquidifier bought 5,000 Yes at 98.4 ($4,920) and that guy has 50Millions of volume traded. WHY? WTF is going on?",NO,YES,False,True,19.5,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:56:13.191221Z,0x1f64f2739a19fc5cdfd7c3f50c42463aa8983e82,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Resolution source is the iranian not the israeli,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T05:37:36.218074Z,0xfe08d62bb47ae0644c17ca3be8c86a24535cfa5f,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Chatgpt coping for $35 gotta love polymarket. Even as a yes holder I know this is regarded.,YES,YES,True,True,124.9983,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-24T17:30:27.795609Z,0x400958b3baaa4300e4b4f38abeeb16a263de3fd1,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,get a load of this guy cheering for war and death,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-17T18:44:58.231283Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Logically the Chances of winning NO in July 22 and then YES august are drastically low. Hyper gambling it doesnt even ma,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T00:09:45.199696Z,0xc5b84d31c759a36fbc1f1e42206159cf2bd6e27b,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"LOL you have been here less than 24 hours, we have had the same guys like you yesterday, they are likely holding No and ",NO,NO,True,True,1472.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T11:56:44.837794Z,0xf218ac72cef82154b96b5b8485eaf5e2ee7352e2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Keep holding yes-tards, your money will be of better use in my pocket",NO,NO,True,True,288.2705,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-28T14:36:36.882513Z,0x79fb7218b7a1bad592e1fbd070580a4910be7b2e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"October? Mabye. September? Nah bro aint no way its happening, bibi have to discuss with his coallition, which will break",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-17T08:00:36.027142Z,0x537e77537f15d4595bc4b62457cc341890f387d3,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"I just won this bet, held 8 No, but my History says I lost. When I claimed my win neither my portfolio nor my cash chang",NO,YES,False,True,1.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T09:52:00.073037Z,0x510df7b29605135d6e8b033ed91d86ac8e25016f,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Prompt: This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 20",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,183.02,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-03T21:07:43.190444Z,0xd8c37f0b86cc266fb8bf532e2fa047822dfa9c9f,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"BTW, this was all planned. Ever since the reports about Netanyahu meeting Trump at the White House next week, the deal h",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T00:44:04.412657Z,0x3bb590f0fa03c4a66c1dedf5831a7ca309e613f4,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,RIP 72 goats. I bet those goats were also raped by the Arabs,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T23:52:07.624308Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Let¡¯s goo! Finally!!! Not a cheapskate whale¡­ once we win lets exchange giftcards ill get u $25 starbucks,NO,YES,False,True,890.7486,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T21:52:03.792034Z,0x0e3ae982a92379a1a3db26efbe46212d72d7db5e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,sad it is unlikely to transfer into actual peace but whatever,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-06T20:14:12.252105Z,0xf3f9eee7be3ce2c04af792d60cd61498f7dfda91,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,literally sold his no shares before it dumped on oct 10. what a timing,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,YES,YES,True,True,9.55,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:53:02.244023Z,0x9287e6513b39a6c6da398b65d7df167087c37322,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Fr I'm down like 4500 dollars and just taking my L in peace,NO,NO,True,True,4498.1728,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-31T13:18:56.819437Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"During my 30 min nap, I saw a dream where i sold portion of my shares at 46 pricemark :)) im not jking",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18.0107,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-29T04:16:37.668513Z,0x7d8a547ecae47a031ea46fff45876e400c28217a,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"If Witkoff's new deal is similar to his old one, Hamas will just reject again. If it's similar to what Hamas claims to h",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-07T20:00:28.561711Z,0xa1fa2f4cbe7738edb1359a9cd57109571b3565f5,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,And Israel made it clear they would break the ceasefire and never enter phase 2 from the day they signed it. Why would H,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-03T20:41:46.850178Z,0x5474a3855f36ae4fa616b5aad1fcf7c365b2e77d,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Jsjr this bastard antisemite. Doesn't even bet on what he believe. Embarrassing,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-17T06:49:28.378617Z,0x00f9040eee200d9fd896812e2e935291f98cc5da,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"Hamas approves of Israel¡¯s withdrawal plan, Qatar and Egypt are putting major pressure on them to get a deal",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-18T06:34:05.300091Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,How can you come to such a dumb conclusion is insane. Im posting just straight facts the past weeks which tend to be hig,NO,NO,True,True,5.0261,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T06:50:15.208435Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,-130$ pnl no suprise you dumb fck believe the same lie from the same sources the 100th time,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T22:16:53.369956Z,0xc5b84d31c759a36fbc1f1e42206159cf2bd6e27b,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, reports and information coming from the party responsible for the attack cannot be considered ¡°credible reporting",NO,NO,True,True,1472.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T14:18:03.936247Z,0xf2b59fc431a1773844943dbec1acf9d5177df216,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,pack it up the delusion is gonna end tmr when youll redeem ur 160k shares for 0 dollars average,YES,NO,False,True,81.874,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-18T03:51:44.962386Z,0x00f9040eee200d9fd896812e2e935291f98cc5da,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Egypt, Qatar and the US are all putting major pressure on both parties to get a deal",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",YES,YES,True,True,386.048,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T19:45:36.033354Z,0x5ddb57902ce6902111ba88087a6e52c4b6d85fb0,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,omg i sold at 68 wanted to rebuy cheaper and it went to 75 in 2hr?XD,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T09:32:19.591354Z,0x408d43bed888c137e72ac6e017b73ad2487d0d21,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"THE YES WHALES ARE LEAVING!!! TAKE YOUR PROFIT AND RUN NOW - DeepestState sold 110,527 Yes at 98.5 $108,923",NO,NO,True,True,4670.0468,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:52:11.973909Z,0xf7aa18d4be5e7f4cbf347c345d6b518bc81fe034,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This guy KnureKnume has been relentless for days and just sold. If you¡¯re still holding Yes what are you doing,NO,YES,False,True,33.0768,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:55:37.278393Z,0x7de1a37ce98548e5d054c60de46c599a4cc767d3,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I lowk want it to go to No, not for the 150 bucks but to see everyone cry cuz they blindly follow aenews",NO,NO,True,True,54.61,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T19:08:00.040556Z,0x147d15ab6ad449428edb1cc99a1156897621dd02,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If we get nothing from IAEA and Iran, this is probably resolving N, unless we get some very conclusive evidence.",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T17:24:45.088416Z,0xd4c2426be1374c69d2d323ef04461d2df2a68cfa,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"1. Gambling debt on a credit card makes your credit score DROP 2. If you authorized the payment and do a chargeback, th",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T19:37:41.276446Z,0xb772a340e4a3e9efc118cd7e0c0d1be4e128442b,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"also, the whales holding YES here are not major holders of UMA tokens. yes they have some influence due to their reputat",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,18565.4592,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-29T18:58:21.894401Z,0x0e3ae982a92379a1a3db26efbe46212d72d7db5e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"You won't satisfy Peter Singer anyway. I added ""actually"" for a reason",YES,NO,False,True,13.11,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T18:29:46.707163Z,0x3af7c727a707caf89935c8431c42b09fdab49ee0,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,When I get your money I'll donate $50 to PETA because a lot of goats are going to be se**x**ly abused if you loose.,YES,NO,False,True,206.4524,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T00:52:01.050281Z,0xf218ac72cef82154b96b5b8485eaf5e2ee7352e2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Keep holding yes-tards. I love watching yall lose money when you could be on the winning side of this bet,NO,YES,False,True,8.2,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-31T17:13:52.122808Z,0x0e3ae982a92379a1a3db26efbe46212d72d7db5e,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"where is my n with mr Z on avatar? I asked you not to waste words to convince yestards, now I miss you",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-11T07:24:43.328159Z,0x5706604f601091fde85dc5713a56a78d011fead4,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"a shit ton of insiders on the middle eastern market, you never know",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T15:00:45.685891Z,0xe8f2c894c47e236fbef6aad6a4d8898e858cc9c6,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"it can go both ways but the worse is already behind yes holders, can only get better from here tbh and there's still a w",YES,YES,True,True,3774.13,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:01:52.169359Z,0x7dcd86c58e6e20a6a717a7a000b0b013a7ea4117,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,why would Israel confirm they were destroyed? if they confirm it means Iran is no longer a threat which means they would,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T22:34:04.679619Z,0xd643b9a8b8cffe5615911af101771a8ee1c52f74,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,bro tried making $6 and got butt fucked at 80 cent LOL,NO,NO,True,True,157.87,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-15T07:50:38.605166Z,0x975ada126c442045df165a75a29a1f2b9b6fc575,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,No ceasefire this month. Netanyahu expressed clearly he will further attack Gaza. Trumps middle east tour is over after ,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-31T07:01:16.600146Z,0x9e364dd7661180cf2201f901285fa1fc75cb9fdb,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,i just want to ask why you consider the date of 15 of August ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T13:44:49.353918Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,After looking at this I used my brain and bought NO,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-20T06:19:49.112191Z,0xa05b1e594d0d26ac0ad9a9be19196e2e08e3348c,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"IDF orders new evacuation in Gaza: ""We are expanding activity to an area we have not been to before",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,NO,NO,True,True,802.7744,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-21T19:43:15.316568Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"After this resolves to YES, I will be donating $20 to the war victims",NO,YES,False,True,18.0107,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T07:36:38.307818Z,0xb23927d13f252e84b9040c41444299fce6fe53ef,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,There is much more money if aanews artifically inflate the price of yes to get all that exit liquidity for when they sel,NO,NO,True,True,289.06,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-18T16:22:14.821071Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Be ready and hope something is gonna happen, while nothing indicates its gonna happen, cause hope is the only way we can",NO,NO,True,True,1925.3461,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T16:22:14.821071Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"Be ready and hope something is gonna happen, while nothing indicates its gonna happen, cause hope is the only way we can",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T19:48:58.263967Z,0x25f734b54075884ff3ecf27bd7bf17de3a8f4e44,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I was so worried. I bet some of my rent money for this cause of the government shutdown,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-03T19:48:21.328543Z,0x54f84bf02ae548193e0cb02b46f5c458997e67dc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,bro he is a swing trader let him do his thing,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-24T11:05:28.082662Z,0x6deec8ad2fca0df1078e27ad4b4e09c5eaa65adb,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Maybe they will meet after this meeting.,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-19T21:06:30.458067Z,0x35441ef1eab73517d170a791dcc7890806a77c34,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"History doesn¡¯t repeat itself, but it often rhymes",NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-23T14:22:33.992837Z,0x6deec8ad2fca0df1078e27ad4b4e09c5eaa65adb,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Egyptian channel Al-Rad reported from sources that Hamas will submit its ""final response"" today to the proposal for a ce",NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-24T18:49:21.153763Z,0x9c863051f8762d3c789a118b4701750b675ceb01,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,uma will not be allowed to scam this one.. no's argument is much better,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-29T12:55:05.916533Z,0x362dd145282e186817f6f2e046b8803d0e127489,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"yeah, most likely the announcement is that the hostages will be released, and that can only happen if there is also a ce",YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-21T12:07:17.960929Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"I hold a few yes shares as a hedge against my other position, but this article is a good read on the psychology of Hamas",NO,YES,False,True,370.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-17T13:54:35.750607Z,0x376557fdebc2db5bb859f2f606715fbeab1e97a9,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,This already a pretty much guaranteed NO. USA lies holding yes price up. Time is running up¡­,NO,NO,True,True,6020.0736,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T19:17:35.082735Z,0xb772a340e4a3e9efc118cd7e0c0d1be4e128442b,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"holy shit @NoahLange just made a great point: ""He in no way said the facility was destroyed; he said the centrifuges wer",NO,NO,True,True,18565.4592,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T08:54:38.410853Z,0xfd59d8dc3362f8f217dfad74e85df24c58c10d13,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I'm a YEStard, I bought at 0.82",YES,YES,True,True,28.87,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-08T16:16:04.837869Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Erasmus brother, if you want easy money, invest in NO",NO,NO,True,True,351.747,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-09T20:46:23.415101Z,0x1bc43da65839b3b507f423f524cc11004bf031b1,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Denizz doesn¡¯t go this heavy if he isn¡¯t sure.,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T18:50:06.219957Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,We hope to reach a ceasefire can you read,NO,YES,False,False,0.0,NO,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-31T15:04:17.155293Z,0x7d8a547ecae47a031ea46fff45876e400c28217a,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,I bet there's at least 1 if not more poison pills in that response as far as Israel's concerned.,YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-08T23:03:23.034053Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Israel¡¯s prime minister insisted ¡°Gaza will no longer be a threat¡± as Israel advances plans to concentrate Palestinia,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T14:01:27.761549Z,0xb3d9bf78226cf1104e8eb184d9e77d5f6ef79ced,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Yes holders still have time to save real money. Time is running out,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-30T13:39:45.175376Z,0xa9c9f7f67c5ea565f1c2e8e8b19512d8cbff20f9,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,so you are a boy?but you profile picture is so cute,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T13:23:02.722476Z,0x4e5e1f246dee224a82d6c9cdb067b6e4bb801fe7,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,daddy i love money im balls deep in no,NO,NO,True,True,168.27,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-20T09:11:50.155695Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Netanyahu¡¯s gamble, the Haredi bluff For Netanyahu, the Haredi threat is serious, but it¡¯s not the only one. Should he",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-09-26T23:10:48.514136Z,0x00f9040eee200d9fd896812e2e935291f98cc5da,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"It¡¯s not just gonna happen, a lot of negotiating needs to happen: https://x.com/dropsitenews/status/1971710635789459638",YES,NO,False,False,0.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-25T04:44:16.035871Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Too bad he/(ScamAltman for those who remember the Ukraine Minerals deal before April market) also lost $300k in these ce,YES,NO,False,True,157.5657,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-04T00:01:51.318566Z,0xa65314dd40d10adb10816f9669c001c5be7945ee,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,Funzfiz going from $438k to negative pnl territory over 5 weeks will be the 3rd wildest thing I've seen on PM. The Ukrai,NO,NO,True,True,292.4972,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T17:12:18.111239Z,0xc62920ab121a30fe7ace1ee6d4fe845f7eb46d41,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Smotrich gave his go. Hes not threathing Netanyahu,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-18T21:44:38.896252Z,0x47ee85582b1c77abe270c562e99f3bf7a855609b,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Are the top holder managed by bots ?,NO,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,NO,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-05T13:25:36.386944Z,0x4e5e1f246dee224a82d6c9cdb067b6e4bb801fe7,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,or if there is no Hamas. Then no ceasefire deal,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T21:12:34.745236Z,0x684f36d002de1dcae216308fe2452dc80fc54099,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I bought a bit more No, i dont know what i am doing?",NO,NO,True,True,7.362,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:43:27.649472Z,0xdd4d3a21c7265dbfa59c0f215c88e2a2a05500c7,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Interesting find: Yes spiked from $0.70 to $0.90 four hours ago, right after a whale with 5.5M tokens voted Yes on UMA. ",NO,YES,False,True,29626.0326,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:51:43.292271Z,0x0bffc4b556483e057b1979794970b4c5c814dcec,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,That dude bought 600k just for 600 bucks profit weird shit,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,89.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T18:58:04.797758Z,0xd3eb993b1035be47327af3dce0a32e08afddbf2a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This is in no way IAEA confirmation.,NO,NO,True,True,2774.8281,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,0x37b5ca990030b549fa5ea3668832f0407f406afb,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:38:50.520643Z,0xad00738dd077e1dfb115c8137519b992a82a2829,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Bro u got 10 bucks in this market, why are you even playing haha",NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,1048.74,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T02:34:52.803785Z,0xaa73c1e739a4ea9c9bb2c50363c5b7b5f4b515c9,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Holy shit how is yes not at 100% are you people retarded?,YES,YES,True,False,0.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-30T06:26:10.795086Z,0xe3a70005925bf8174cf9ef8489cfce5672891213,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"There are September markets now, connect them with clock buttons plz.",YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T00:13:01.552142Z,0x4a6232e14cfd20b63a30f87a4ed7e89a4d9edc7e,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Look I'm only out $100 so who cares really but this market is a joke. Washington Post from just a few hours ago: ""The Un",NO,NO,True,True,100.0,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-07-15T20:09:52.721578Z,0x8d3cafd66971e38ac836123c5fcd1ee7b1abc41c,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"Bear enters the room, bulls out",NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T14:11:49.395473Z,0xf381340e99cbdb2cc84bafdce93fa0d39a75713a,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,I bought and redeemed a win what are you talking about,YES,YES,True,True,25.0,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-20T12:22:55.230502Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,Israel couple days ago: We will further intensify operations in Gaza If there is no deal. Ceasefire talks stalled and no,NO,NO,True,False,0.0,NO,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:31:21.479391Z,0x4049a7d6ef7a52464c76446a45333a7caece6ebc,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Beautiful, I sold my initial investment, now i have 1k shares for free ) thank you YES TARDS",NO,YES,False,True,22.5786,YES,YES,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T07:38:54.764222Z,0x33c67ee24a26d6ff79ceaf0786adb63b21318e29,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Exactly 33K more revealed tokens could have ended the vote - but that never happened. Maybe someone didn¡¯t want it to r,NO,NEUTRAL,False,True,10596.3708,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T22:36:49.783101Z,0x58f8f7167e6919c7c29f3ef1bbd54cf3bb105d14,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,This market is such a scam. I bought in yesterday at around 80 thinking the Americans did the job. But apparently they j,YES,NO,False,True,58.61,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T07:11:08.527914Z,0xaefe57852b3536f7a1e77f4037e0eedc5152e059,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The way I see it and why I bought was that yes requires Iran or the IAEA.to officially declare it destroyed. Iran won't,",NO,NO,True,True,56.11,YES,NO,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T13:47:28.998127Z,0x7d04076a09392dd4f4d3a3aaeb3be779e22e38f2,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The work [on the potential Gaza ceasefire deal] is just beginning and it is very difficult work according to Qatar¡¯s Fo,YES,NEUTRAL,False,False,0.0,YES,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T21:21:08.716493Z,0x6f1c10f008765f40f16283c9d8f26e96830e71d6,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"tsybka sold 31,088 Yes at 98.4c ($30,595) GG",NO,YES,False,True,811.96,YES,YES,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3c31a67f5c69f384b4bf350c3fac1c6acc4129c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False,True,357.898,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False,True,378.0702,FLIP,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True,True,728.904,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,flip,False,True,8.748,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,increase,False,True,157.87,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True,True,2500.0002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False,True,95.772,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,decrease,False,True,167.6443,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False,True,3434.8163,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False,True,231.5838,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False,True,288.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,increase,False,True,22.019,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False,True,161.08,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True,True,1.4997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False,True,9.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,increase,False,True,60.14,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,flip,False,True,4715.7552,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True,True,101.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,increase,False,True,1206.8881,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False,True,157.87,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True,True,80.4,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True,True,499.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,increase,False,True,1696.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True,True,3774.13,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True,True,53.19,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False,True,728.904,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,increase,False,True,242.3224,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,increase,False,True,63.4228,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False,True,990.79,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False,True,1124.1326,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False,True,95.88,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,flip,False,True,108.7,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False,True,432.152,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a1dbb2b1276ec8a552ee184e1ff7c45d62efb64f --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_decrease_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,decrease,False +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,decrease,False +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,thats not how polymarket works,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,decrease,False +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,decrease,False +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,decrease,False +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,decrease,False +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,hold,True +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,decrease,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..91eeb13225cf02cf8c9a42a37be4062d1bc0f99e --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_flip_hold.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,text,gt,pred,correct +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,hold,True +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,flip,False +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,hold,True +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,hold,True +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,hold,True +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,hold,True +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3c31a67f5c69f384b4bf350c3fac1c6acc4129c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h12.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False,True,357.898,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False,True,378.0702,FLIP,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True,True,728.904,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,flip,False,True,8.748,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,increase,False,True,157.87,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True,True,2500.0002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False,True,95.772,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,decrease,False,True,167.6443,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False,True,3434.8163,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False,True,231.5838,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False,True,288.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,increase,False,True,22.019,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False,True,161.08,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True,True,1.4997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False,True,9.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,increase,False,True,60.14,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,flip,False,True,4715.7552,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True,True,101.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,increase,False,True,1206.8881,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False,True,157.87,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True,True,80.4,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True,True,499.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,increase,False,True,1696.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True,True,3774.13,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True,True,53.19,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False,True,728.904,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,increase,False,True,242.3224,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,increase,False,True,63.4228,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False,True,990.79,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False,True,1124.1326,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False,True,95.88,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,flip,False,True,108.7,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False,True,432.152,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3c31a67f5c69f384b4bf350c3fac1c6acc4129c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h24.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False,True,357.898,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False,True,378.0702,FLIP,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True,True,728.904,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,flip,False,True,8.748,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,increase,False,True,157.87,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True,True,2500.0002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False,True,95.772,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,decrease,False,True,167.6443,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False,True,3434.8163,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False,True,231.5838,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False,True,288.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,increase,False,True,22.019,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False,True,161.08,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True,True,1.4997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False,True,9.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,increase,False,True,60.14,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,flip,False,True,4715.7552,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True,True,101.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,increase,False,True,1206.8881,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False,True,157.87,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True,True,80.4,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True,True,499.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,increase,False,True,1696.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True,True,3774.13,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True,True,53.19,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False,True,728.904,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,increase,False,True,242.3224,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,increase,False,True,63.4228,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False,True,990.79,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False,True,1124.1326,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False,True,95.88,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,flip,False,True,108.7,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False,True,432.152,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3c31a67f5c69f384b4bf350c3fac1c6acc4129c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h48.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False,True,357.898,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False,True,378.0702,FLIP,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True,True,728.904,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,flip,False,True,8.748,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,increase,False,True,157.87,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True,True,2500.0002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False,True,95.772,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,decrease,False,True,167.6443,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False,True,3434.8163,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False,True,231.5838,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False,True,288.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,increase,False,True,22.019,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False,True,161.08,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True,True,1.4997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False,True,9.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,increase,False,True,60.14,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,flip,False,True,4715.7552,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True,True,101.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,increase,False,True,1206.8881,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False,True,157.87,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True,True,80.4,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True,True,499.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,increase,False,True,1696.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True,True,3774.13,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True,True,53.19,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False,True,728.904,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,increase,False,True,242.3224,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,increase,False,True,63.4228,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False,True,990.79,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False,True,1124.1326,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False,True,95.88,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,flip,False,True,108.7,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False,True,432.152,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3c31a67f5c69f384b4bf350c3fac1c6acc4129c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h6.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False,True,357.898,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False,True,378.0702,FLIP,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True,True,728.904,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,flip,False,True,8.748,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,increase,False,True,157.87,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True,True,2500.0002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False,True,95.772,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,decrease,False,True,167.6443,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False,True,3434.8163,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False,True,231.5838,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False,True,288.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,increase,False,True,22.019,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False,True,161.08,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True,True,1.4997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False,True,9.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,increase,False,True,60.14,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,flip,False,True,4715.7552,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True,True,101.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,increase,False,True,1206.8881,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False,True,157.87,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True,True,80.4,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True,True,499.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,increase,False,True,1696.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True,True,3774.13,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True,True,53.19,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False,True,728.904,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,increase,False,True,242.3224,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,increase,False,True,63.4228,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False,True,990.79,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False,True,1124.1326,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False,True,95.88,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,flip,False,True,108.7,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False,True,432.152,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3c31a67f5c69f384b4bf350c3fac1c6acc4129c --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task2_h72.csv @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,has_position,position_size,raw_response,model +541647,2025-07-09T22:17:34.261192Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Might have to sell my Yes in 2025 ceasefire shares at this rate; https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/hamas-israel-netanyahu-t,hold,flip,False,True,357.898,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-06T22:25:42.547616Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Do you think they would rather keep fighting the IDF, until they get fucking wiped of the face of the Earth?",hold,increase,False,True,518.3041,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:46:10.066162Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike."" guess 12 30K lb bombs don't qualify as a targeted s",hold,flip,False,True,378.0702,FLIP,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:44:29.448424Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,The ceasefire isn¡¯t with iran buddy.,hold,hold,True,True,728.904,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T00:06:47.686945Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Doesn't the deadline expire by the time the re-voting is over?,hold,flip,False,True,8.748,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:11:26.781526Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Collapsed entrances does not equal destruction. The market requires confirmation that the underground enrichment facilit,hold,increase,False,True,157.87,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T22:23:33.083905Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Comments at comment section starting to disappear, lol",hold,hold,True,True,2500.0002,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T19:03:32.730195Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"*At the moment, the facts aren¡¯t clear. A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency assessment suggests the U.S. strike set ba",hold,flip,False,True,95.772,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T16:36:10.031578Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"There has been two rounds of voting and it has yet not being resolved, there can be up to two more, in which case the PM",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:25:24.064827Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The theorical data is not a proof itself as they are modeled,hold,decrease,False,True,167.6443,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:37:11.617659Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Anyone going to dispute proposed ""yes"" ?",hold,flip,False,True,3434.8163,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T23:35:45.241555Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,thats not how polymarket works,hold,flip,False,True,231.5838,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T15:30:10.325242Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"The centrifuges need to be destroyed, so we have a YES. Centrifuges are extremely fragile, this blast has certainly dest",hold,increase,False,True,4.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-22T19:50:45.697527Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,You deserve to lose your shirt for being an emotional paper handed bitch,hold,flip,False,True,288.2705,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:51:38.091064Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"That's not how polymarket works. IF we don't know for sure its destroyed it will either be resolved to ""too soon"" or 50/",hold,hold,True,True,268.984,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-29T13:06:21.284416Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"I mean the negotiations tanked.. ""NO"" is still cheap guys",hold,increase,False,True,22.019,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T01:33:19.148114Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"No doubt, this round of voting will be even harder for the Yes side. Several days have passed since the U.S. strikes, an",hold,decrease,False,True,161.08,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:36:50.642308Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,is it apart of the centrifuges?,hold,hold,True,True,157.87,HOLD,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-22T12:59:08.900705Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"it's PM after all, it can resolve Yes, even if nothing happens",hold,hold,True,True,1.4997,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T12:30:34.363178Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,the vote is clearly heading to p4,hold,flip,False,True,9.4,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:47:38.448899Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Stop playing games, it's been widely reported that the entrances have collapsed. With no way for workers or anyone to go",hold,increase,False,True,936.74,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-27T00:09:18.827779Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"yea so i just talked to this uma guy and its pretty clear he is yes guys, he also told me fordo is gonzo so yea",hold,increase,False,True,60.14,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T10:25:52.055055Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,look it's not my fault you had to dump your shares but good choice,hold,flip,False,True,4715.7552,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T14:48:47.992543Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Guys, don¡¯t forget to share this.Polymarket is scamming users in plain sight and nobody¡¯s holding them accountable :ht",hold,hold,True,True,57.0,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-07-08T15:24:13.282251Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Can¡¯t wait to use a Chipotle gift card EOM,hold,hold,True,True,101.6,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T09:14:43.407626Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Israel attacking Fordow pretty much solidifies that the site hasn't been destroyed. What can their strikes do that the b,hold,increase,False,True,1206.8881,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T16:37:46.181735Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,with your logic IRAN destroyed its own facility DAYS PRIOR to the strikes because they sealed the entrance with dirt?,hold,flip,False,True,157.87,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-09T12:11:34.030217Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,A Palestinian official accuses Israel of stalling negotiations and lacking authority to make decisions. https://www.time,hold,decrease,False,True,15.0,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T12:00:58.451184Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,i badly damaged my phone when I dropped it the other day. It¡¯s still functional,hold,hold,True,True,80.4,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:17:06.753441Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"""ERRORS FLAGGED: The post presents as fact that Fordow was rendered inoperable and that Iran's nuclear program was set ",hold,decrease,False,True,171.77,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563307,2025-07-14T17:05:07.474722Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,"We only need ceasefire people, i know both sides are hungry for permanent concessions, but temporary ceasefire is normal",hold,hold,True,True,499.8977,HOLD,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-01T08:41:37.059054Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"A joke that people sold it, Bibi will not back from washington next week without news about it haha",hold,increase,False,True,1696.0,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T13:27:30.853988Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"If no official source confirm, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used",hold,hold,True,True,3774.13,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-28T16:53:25.632228Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Can anyone tell me if these whales influence anything?,hold,hold,True,True,53.19,HOLD,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-29T10:48:35.248869Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"I am chatting to him on discord, he seems like a nice chap",hold,hold,True,True,22.142,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-05-16T19:31:17.086717Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,"Soon, Trump will eliminate the trolls and ¡°communist shit-worms¡± in the comments section ---- Putin¡¯s puppets",hold,hold,True,True,18.0107,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-06-13T00:19:58.017209Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,Price going down because of a strike on iran? No logic ??,hold,decrease,False,True,728.904,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +563309,2025-08-18T15:43:40.197787Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,"I24: Hamas informs mediators it has accepted ceasefire proposal Yessssss,honestly I don¡¯t care about the money,let the",hold,increase,False,True,242.3224,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T11:33:45.100229Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,The rules state we need confirmation that the centrifuges are rendered non functional. You¡¯re probably right that they ,hold,decrease,False,True,80.4,DECREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-10T15:57:40.354904Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"Possible, but If you look at the facts and how negotiations stall, you will know, If you have a brain that its almost im",hold,increase,False,True,0.0261,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-10-04T11:14:58.118085Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,isreal will be in DEF mood until all hamas members leave the region it is not that easy : ),hold,increase,False,True,63.4228,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-23T23:23:21.231785Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Centrifuges are very vibration-sensitive. They would not even need to get directly hit to become ""non-functional"". Now i",hold,increase,False,True,533.29,INCREASE,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-06-13T00:30:33.744242Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,"We did it Peasant, WE DID ITTTTTTTT",hold,flip,False,True,990.79,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-22T11:13:53.227702Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,Copers have 45 mins before this news conference to stop coping,hold,flip,False,True,1124.1326,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-26T10:46:45.140936Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Lol, and i guess you are smarter by going both yes and and no",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-30T22:26:44.661881Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"How do u know, they voted for yes",hold,flip,False,True,95.88,FLIP,qwen3:32b +551017,2025-07-03T17:10:12.599303Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,Watching the whales panic and desperately try to cut their losses for Friday market is just so amusing,hold,flip,False,True,108.7,FLIP,qwen3:32b +552650,2025-06-25T13:57:47.458045Z,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,"Per the rules, iranians didn't clarify whether the core was destroyed",hold,flip,False,True,40.573,FLIP,qwen3:32b +563308,2025-07-22T12:58:20.826363Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,"One burrito bowl, chipotle chiken, extra avocado and cheese please",hold,hold,True,True,1224.39,HOLD,qwen3:32b +541647,2025-08-20T04:53:27.208943Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,@slight- you just blow in from stupid town or something?,hold,flip,False,True,432.152,FLIP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_count.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_count.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..860d61ea9270bde1acb69cc675d6b430a8b0d619 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_count.csv @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.75,0.9995,0.24950000000000006,UP,1.472013367855766,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,102,UP,qwen3:32b +1,0.485,0.004350000000000001,-0.48064999999999997,DOWN,0.9447448867462724,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,32,DOWN,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_time.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_time.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..281eb2543dfe0fafab35855dc5597b2592bf5ac1 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_intl/qwen3_polymarket_politics_intl_task3_time.csv @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +window_id,avg_odds,next_odds,delta,gt_dir,stat_strength,stat_3c,stat_2c,stat_correct_3c,stat_correct_2c,llm_pred,llm_correct,naive_correct,pos_frac,resolution,question,n_comments,raw_response,model +0,0.485,0.13654166666666664,-0.3484583333333333,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,16,DOWN,qwen3:32b +1,0.75,0.6132388059701493,-0.13676119402985065,DOWN,0.5532816641094372,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,25,DOWN,qwen3:32b +2,0.4849999999999998,0.6912916666666665,0.2062916666666667,UP,0.9357434450123654,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,22,UP,qwen3:32b +3,0.245,0.16208333333333333,-0.08291666666666667,DOWN,0.9977396557535269,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,9,UP,qwen3:32b +4,0.59,0.16826388888888888,-0.4217361111111111,DOWN,1.0005395093379488,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,30,UP,qwen3:32b +5,0.59,0.042569444444444444,-0.5474305555555555,DOWN,0.0,UP,NEUTRAL,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,9,DOWN,qwen3:32b +6,0.305,0.32416666666666666,0.019166666666666665,UP,0.26174647192675377,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,DOWN,False,False,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,5,DOWN,qwen3:32b +7,0.24500000000000002,0.06770833333333333,-0.17729166666666668,DOWN,0.370829417964778,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,21,DOWN,qwen3:32b +8,0.59,0.616111111111111,0.026111111111111085,UP,0.974982627067143,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,16,UP,qwen3:32b +9,0.59,0.39451388888888883,-0.19548611111111114,DOWN,0.9293056701390193,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,45,DOWN,qwen3:32b +10,0.59,0.6536111111111111,0.06361111111111117,UP,0.9124122301068339,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?,13,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +11,0.75,0.5353139367816091,-0.2146860632183909,DOWN,0.7720318826015031,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,357,UP,qwen3:32b +12,0.245,0.16979166666666667,-0.07520833333333332,DOWN,1.0575833895588997,UP,UP,False,False,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,4,DOWN,qwen3:32b +13,0.245,0.011950000000000002,-0.23304999999999998,DOWN,27.284924934287723,UP,UP,False,False,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,8,UP,qwen3:32b +14,0.245,0.12479166666666668,-0.12020833333333332,DOWN,0.9251418920608233,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,17,UP,qwen3:32b +15,0.48499999999999993,0.23729166666666668,-0.24770833333333325,DOWN,0.9491278771278393,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,41,UP,qwen3:32b +16,0.3449999999999999,0.01835064935064935,-0.3266493506493506,DOWN,0.9138338409293273,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,318,DOWN,qwen3:32b +17,0.24500000000000002,0.07604166666666667,-0.16895833333333335,DOWN,1.0,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?,10,UP,qwen3:32b +18,0.30500000000000005,0.985625,0.6806249999999999,UP,0.0355892282681267,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,NEUTRAL,False,False,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,689,NEUTRAL,qwen3:32b +19,0.30500000000000005,0.7939583333333333,0.4889583333333333,UP,0.10126007678755276,DOWN,NEUTRAL,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?,874,UP,qwen3:32b +20,0.34499999999999986,0.4125347222222222,0.06753472222222234,UP,0.571655500521724,DOWN,DOWN,False,False,UP,True,False,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,244,UP,qwen3:32b +21,0.75,0.3738338129496403,-0.3761661870503597,DOWN,0.9503497100019955,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,DOWN,True,True,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,58,DOWN,qwen3:32b +22,0.485,0.029695833333333345,-0.4553041666666666,DOWN,0.8672439603768554,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?,100,UP,qwen3:32b +23,0.75,0.7614546762589928,0.011454676258992769,UP,0.9719924892432198,UP,UP,True,True,UP,True,False,1.0,YES,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?,89,UP,qwen3:32b +24,0.34499999999999986,0.18841319444444446,-0.1565868055555554,DOWN,0.8905368560950231,DOWN,DOWN,True,True,UP,False,True,1.0,NO,Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?,407,UP,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/commitment_validity_polymarket_politics_us.json b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/commitment_validity_polymarket_politics_us.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..45f7755e7a14e1d2a3fb5b449f83af104e64d86d --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/commitment_validity_polymarket_politics_us.json @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +{ + "data_source": "polymarket/politics_us", + "wrong_bettor_test": { + "n_hp": 300, + "n_wrong_bettors": 214, + "wrong_bettor_rate": 0.7133, + "n_directional": 173, + "n_follows_commitment": 78, + "n_follows_truth": 95, + "pct_follows_commitment": 0.4509, + "binom_p": 0.9145, + "significant": false + }, + "dose_response": { + "n_hp_directional": 240, + "quartiles": [ + { + "label": "Q1(最小)", + "da": 0.5333, + "n": 60, + "median_position_size": 14.99, + "binom_p": 0.3494, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q2", + "da": 0.4667, + "n": 60, + "median_position_size": 181.25, + "binom_p": 0.7405, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q3", + "da": 0.4098, + "n": 61, + "median_position_size": 619.06, + "binom_p": 0.9381, + "significant": false + }, + { + "label": "Q4(最大)", + "da": 0.6441, + "n": 59, + "median_position_size": 6153.76, + "binom_p": 0.0182, + "significant": true + } + ], + "csd_q4_q1": 0.1107, + "mwu_p_large_gt_small": 0.1488, + "significant": false + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..82a30051ff194086dd98fde469e8780f646e43d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_0shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,161 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +516767,2025-04-25T15:50:18.350409Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,3 days for your carney shares become 0c in value.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552845,2025-06-24T04:15:44.763562Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Breaked ceasefire in only 12 minutes lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T16:07:05.462455Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,you mean women pro immigrants and crime?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-29T20:38:45.440062Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Why are people still buying yes with over +500 dollars,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-28T17:05:01.150142Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Good thing your mom isn¡¯t the arbiter of the resolution criteria?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T00:13:31.375623Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Holy ¡­ 10 min ago I sold 500 no shares for only 10% loss¡­,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T06:54:43.127628Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Sell your stocks and invest in some reading comprehension lessons instead,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-21T22:05:58.217904Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ok got 2 dollars just for the lulz,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T14:08:01.447968Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,https://www.youtube.com/live/lGKaVqwTfLc carney speaking on the Vancouver attack,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560539,2025-07-08T10:01:27.681833Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Well then hope that Trump convinves Netanyahu to withdraw its troops from Gaza and let aid deliveries through, which Net",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-30T04:23:24.010241Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"hezbollah just said it will destroy israel lmao, they never agreed to the ceasefire and the vote will end in no winning",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-31T21:54:27.878925Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommiela down the toilet once again. Keep on losing real money komrades.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-16T06:04:46.182857Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"like the lebanon market? they might end up in prison, but I wont lose my sleep over $1500, I dont like it though",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-03-28T19:42:27.621047Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Im in Canada and I bought shares without any issue. Buy USDC on coinbase and transfer here,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T11:09:47.683934Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"good opportunity for a small no buy, just got in at $0.02",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T04:58:49.412783Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"i want to say that i think they ""yes"" people are right. i but $1k on no stupidly. then did research. tiktok is about to ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +555752,2025-07-15T16:58:13.980899Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Prepare for the roll into the July 22 market,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-28T03:25:10.210349Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,A vote for Kamala is a vote for Peace,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-06T05:46:07.786414Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommie will not speak tonight. Chicken shit,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T18:09:03.157854Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i will pay 100usd to any yes holders that buy 1500 in yes right now, discount offer",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-22T20:05:43.946183Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,You know the expectation for this is to wait until after elections for $1 right? Lol not to sell at 0.30cents dor 28 cen,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T23:31:13.600837Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,ur profit is $1 brokie get a job,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-16T00:37:58.947825Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"every serious no holder is just delusional. Im only holding no for the free money, im gonna switch sides. All those capt",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +531929,2025-04-01T14:49:02.052746Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,yeah but I just put like 1 Dollar in those so not that big of a risk and loss,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T14:26:24.856643Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Total volume is now $82M. The market is one of the craziest market and will set precedent for future markets. All No hol,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-31T16:38:14.055221Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i thought obama promised to close guantanamo? Strange it¡¯s still open,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T17:09:58.122307Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala was installed not voted for ???? Democrat party is garbage,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T22:33:46.630883Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,$193 bucks is a trip to the grocery store... and you wont even get that lol,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +527883,2025-03-19T07:41:19.939728Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,Do your own research & jump in. 3 idiots decide the outcome of this market.. highly unpredictable,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-22T00:36:30.469458Z,US military action against Iran before August?,congratulations yes holders this was the most obvious bet in history,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-19T23:48:50.983281Z,US military action against Iran before August?,2 likes and I dump my no bag and I slurp up infinite yessies !,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-22T00:06:17.819653Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"time to buy some more NOs here, who cares about losing an extra $20",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-28T04:55:29.878916Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"goo evening my fellow gamblers!! i cant wait to make free $40 from all the delusional pierre cucks, we should join the o",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-21T12:58:58.001314Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"in warsaw you can field anyone from PO and he will definitely win, even the weakest one",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T12:08:59.193333Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,idk how this market is still selling $1 for $80c https://x.com/idfonline/status/1866090490502042088,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-28T02:26:56.121179Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Alright boys give me a reason to pile in on Poilievre here,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T08:15:26.924475Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I find it funny the new top trump holder casually has 12 million on trump and than he has a random 10 dollar bet,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-22T00:27:39.637213Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,polymarket isnt stupid look at all this volume more than $100m they are gonna extend the bet then the no's jump to 100% ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-19T11:48:19.132555Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If @Alexparker can risk more than $700,000, I think I can risk $200 haha.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-29T23:50:04.048992Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump looks extra o r a n g e today,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T07:56:40.562216Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i boguth i sold, i bought, i sold, and i bought again haha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-21T00:04:45.626724Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,He will make tiny homes with all the banned plastic straws,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-17T09:36:01.512004Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Bentsen has nine not one chance,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +555752,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-18T00:21:03.384688Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Sorry, retard here. Now that the supreme court supported the TikTok ban 9-0, what are the no holders hoping for?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +527883,2025-03-25T20:45:14.682125Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,How does polymarket justify the tank in shares of yes holders after the Additional context provided out of the blue. I b,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T17:41:35.036403Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I worked with carney on solving world hunger problem. Our final solution is simple but effective: people should eat thei,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T21:40:47.482451Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,I sold and bought rafal to profit twice,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-18T21:44:40.319768Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Learn to read guys. Per cnn article the NSD is handling the redactions - extremely bearish for yes, they always withhold",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-25T00:49:01.537927Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,someone needs to buy $20k worth of shares for it to be 80%. It might have been 80% in a more liquid market,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T02:27:37.231854Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pierre is gonna end up being one of the worst CPC candidates ever. You¡¯ll see on Monday.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-10T02:33:21.388305Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I invested $10 learn to count before you learn to speak,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-04-05T15:01:11.823472Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"i mean, its not that simple, and when i bought yes the situationn was different",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-30T04:27:32.436306Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Allen lickballs is a deranged fool this year,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-21T23:04:17.563167Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Risking 23K to make $90 is wild,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-21T20:53:25.307032Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@HolyMoses7 You bet $7.8k to make $24. You should not be talking about other people's bet bro,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T15:59:10.674675Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"RonDeStantis sold 84,194 Yes at 99.1c $83,436",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-06-15T10:30:16.910064Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,you lowlife trash not everyone has no life like you,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T04:15:43.859885Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is over. Trump is running out of paths to 270. He must win 1. Pennsylvania 2. Michigan 3. Wisconsin 4. Virg,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T23:18:04.805812Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Can¡¯t even mustard up $10 bahahaha always the poors doing the most talking,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-01-25T13:19:58.029854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Ofcourse you can¡¯t win a war without weapons. But what good is it if you can¡¯t find emergency services for wounded sol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-04-28T17:46:54.388802Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"""much more popular on the internet"" that's right, chronically online groyper candidates usually don't do so well in actu",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T06:18:19.585054Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What are you talking about? The $200 rebate is worthless compared to the cost it adds to us. It's not even enough to pay,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-04-19T22:44:03.408135Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Welp, that sit with polymarket seemingly this fuckers want another FBI raid lmao",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-06T22:29:48.271876Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I opened the files on video too lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-24T01:37:12.062007Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,what do you have 40 dollars in the game ?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T23:49:38.080673Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"damn it, I'm sorry. -$4,684.10 then look at this x",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +554010,2025-06-21T21:50:19.014568Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,why they send hella planes if they aint gonna do any explosions???,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-17T15:06:48.008589Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"F U TRUMP, let's see you climb your ass out of this one",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T19:14:02.916648Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Cant wait for my $1000 coming my way soon,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-24T10:01:51.385063Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Will be story about drugs against trza planned by Karol team,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +527883,2025-03-30T13:19:30.690167Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,lol all your replies are so full of projection. Keep seething and coping you worthless incel trash HAHAHA,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T12:07:56.124174Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I paid $28 for research, show, and enjoyment. Do you understand?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-12-04T13:59:11.622535Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Yes, i am proud of making $230. Are you proud of losing $250?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T00:49:11.794492Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yea, Taylor Swift is about to propose to me any day now.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-08-16T23:52:34.761272Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Joe Biden will be crushed, rip $1.5 million LOL",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-23T12:39:08.679369Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"what a silly response. You should state what job you can get that allows you to save $200,000 within 5-10 years?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-25T05:23:16.560746Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Awfully confident for what forecasters all have as a coin toss.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-23T19:59:33.693748Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Betting $199.800 to win $200 is something what I¡¯ll never understand.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T11:55:47.428224Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"because RonDeStantis own $1M worth of ""yes"" shares But he can't sell them because if he does then he end up with only $9",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-06T09:29:03.669886Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,More bad news for naworcki KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 33% (+2) PiS-ECR: 29% (-3) Kon-ESN|PfE: 16% (+1) TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 10% (,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T04:30:38.327603Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,bro risked 800 USD for 8 dollars LMAOOOOOOO,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-03-11T19:14:49.336028Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Russia has to agree. I doubt it will happen, but I bought Yes just in case.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-19T17:17:30.289875Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,When Israel almost DID NOT invade Syria.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-03-24T02:00:14.462397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Just 2 days ago Carney was 22% above Poilievre, now he's only 4% above Poilievre, why?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T12:50:51.460654Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°I like to make the final decision one second before it¡¯s due,¡± Trump said in the Oval Office. ¡°Especially with war,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T08:07:35.019886Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Massive US Air Force reinforcements at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. 22 KC-135 tankers 53 potential F-16s 100,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T17:25:05.553168Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You really wasted 1200 bucks on something that is already been decided?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T19:43:14.784523Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"We¡¯ve expecienced it in Romania, 2 weeks before.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-12T15:05:35.403258Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"17m tokens commited to the vote, thats what, $60m doing nothing",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-08-04T19:49:54.535833Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"I feel this market is gonna be one of those wild ones by the time it ends, +$10M volume lol",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +560539,2025-07-09T11:26:10.484588Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Idk you have to ask him, I'll tell you a fact about bunnies for 10 dollars though",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-08-29T16:26:52.563155Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,nice man you are doing very well,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-08-20T19:27:11.645711Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I¡¯m seeing this through to day 40,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-09-14T06:10:10.268409Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices? Kamala: ""I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a ne",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-20T22:31:00.239264Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,But i only betted 5 bucks on it :) it is a gamble. I made some money betting No at 70 (30) and selling at 20 (80).,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-19T04:38:21.336673Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Kamala Harris¡¯ peak on polymarket was 53% and that only lasted for a few days. Not comparable.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-18T13:02:23.183899Z,US military action against Iran before August?,I'm more confident that this will resolve YES than my sexuality,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-03-30T23:58:54.787459Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I¡¯m ¡°beating¡± for Canada. If you know what I mean¡­,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-21T11:26:44.336167Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"lol, ur PnL is sooo much better at $16 at least this guy has balls and also money to lose!",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-12-01T10:18:58.542448Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,u will lose $90 but its ok. life will be okay.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-02T01:52:08.102608Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Polonia si a scos banana din cur. Romania o are pana in gat. Felicitari.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T14:12:06.486258Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,educate yourself before u feel like ur making a valid point,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-12-03T22:49:35.021742Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-27T09:33:48.331625Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,My guy! I have realized $600 but playing with much less size than you,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-04-19T23:00:18.824979Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,They add contradictory additional remarks to scam you everywhere,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T14:38:08.044198Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"""yes"" guys should take their profit before RonDeStantis sell his $1M worth of ""yes"" shares. he has to break even now or ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-23T15:45:33.838039Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"With what money??? Making $80k/year and 3/4 goes to living expenses, the other 1/4 to taxes and Immigrant welfare.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-26T21:54:20.084392Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"4,557 shares @ 25.3c I sold it at 22.8c",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T23:26:38.978671Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"GUYS JUST REMEMBER. I WENT TO BED FOR 1 HOUR WHEN TRAZA WAS 86C, WOKE UP AND TRAZA WAS 25C. THINGS CAN HAPPEN RAPIDLY. G",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T19:02:17.246058Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Ouch. Bought 72,413 No at 0.7 ($500)",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-26T16:31:51.163789Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"I see talkin¡¯ but I don¡¯t see $, even $10, or are you saving that for the $10 a day child care thay 99.9% of people do",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-19T02:41:29.218901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Clarification got leaked: ""As per the rules, the greater geographic Golan Heights will count as Israeli territory. For t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-24T18:32:29.574937Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Channel 13 Hebrew: Netanyahu discussed with his aides how to explain and present the settlement in the north to the Isra,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-27T20:49:37.411096Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Hey, PSYCHO. Just take your L and move on!! You about to lose that 15k and then cry in the corner, It's over yo.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552845,2025-06-23T22:30:42.910906Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Don't listen to people who were wrong on the Iran market before lmfao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T04:30:33.449728Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"MCGA not listening, keep calling him fat and retarded and hitin dat juul",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-26T20:31:01.638227Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I can¡¯t imagine being so deluded lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T21:07:59.507638Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,FrancisSP8 confirmed what I'd suspected; that PM briefly reset the market as it issued the clarification. Just never see,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T17:29:49.130108Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,He¡¯s talking about a guy who was crazy deep in no and sold for a loss. There has been much more no buys greater than hi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T11:06:55.111261Z,US military action against Iran before August?,'President Trump gives Iran more time to seek diplomacy' mentioning '2 weeks max',False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560539,2025-07-09T16:56:36.966805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Can someone buy my 21 shares for 20 dollars this shit will take 6-7 more days to resolve -_-,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T17:17:00.076117Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Chat should I put another 5k in No?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T09:15:27.600967Z,US military action against Iran before August?,gonna change my twitter bio to consensus of credible reporting,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-08T19:05:56.860815Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,CSIS also stated that PP had no involvement or knowledge and would have not impacted the result. PP won in a landslide. ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-21T03:36:04.910008Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Justifax is down 99% ($6000) thinking Canada will have another coalition government¡­ IDIOT,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T04:00:28.444486Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You excited to be out of $350?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T21:13:36.877772Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,New to Polymarket. The other tiktok ban market had $241k volume this one is at $18.3m. Does the volume affect how heavy ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-04-19T22:18:27.375006Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,people might wanna check the end date,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-27T13:50:16.626149Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,How can anyone vote for a war monger who wants to tax your unrealized gains? Kamala wasn¡¯t even elected in any primary ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +555752,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T23:44:21.376088Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I¡¯m gonna win $130 with zero risk. You¡¯re gonna like over a thousand for no reason,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +534135,2025-04-06T17:57:56.546671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,yea we are f ggot but we make money and also we told you,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T15:35:26.738349Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"That's why I hold, That's why I hold with all I have. That's why I hold.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-03-16T02:08:08.359879Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,TRUMP IS BOMBING THE HOUTHIS. NO IS A LOCK.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-22T20:49:42.643146Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bro this yes guy put $7 mil man crazy,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T00:27:57.883429Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,pretty absurd to add additional context when it's still being actively traded. what a fucking shitshow. I bought this be,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +554010,2025-06-21T22:56:36.149342Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Like this post if you support Black Trans Athletes,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-18T00:49:10.430199Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"a whale just spent $80k USD on ""NO PP"" shares wtfff",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T23:47:46.715301Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I'm gonna make $10 guaranteed, while you'll lose $500 unless you pull out right now.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552845,2025-06-23T22:54:21.619558Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,An Iranian official confirms that an agreement has been reached to stop the war between Iran and Israel https://x.com/Al,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-06T05:44:33.114624Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Could someone slide anything over so I can buy?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-23T18:54:02.832809Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,you bought like $12 today bro ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-11T15:50:59.304414Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"JD vance, our vice president is very likely to be our next president. It may be worth the risk because Canada has had 10",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T14:54:52.841643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Would the market result in yes in the next 24 hours.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T11:42:15.762284Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put a measly $700 on no, will come back when i make a quarter mill",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T02:11:27.186203Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,The dumbest unheard of lib mp steals more than that on expenses,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-25T18:19:07.246986Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,No chance. She already got two more SS gents to guard her because she is afraid DEMOCRATS will assassinate her and repla,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-16T23:35:44.153026Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Israel's Channel 14 is reporting that US forces are bombing Iran,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-21T07:16:18.961747Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Poll shows LPC is maintaining vote efficiency, comfortable majority",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-04-26T09:39:00.183953Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It was obvious manipulation, they changing rules as they want, cryptobetting apear to be another crypto scam. Bitconeeee",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T21:50:36.591786Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Yes!!!! Thank you for the logic. I am tired of having to explain us law when it¡¯s so easy to lookup and fact check how ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T21:42:49.593483Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Anything I say, you won't believe anyways... There's literally no point lol.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-20T14:19:34.624434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,lol I don't care I only had 5 shares,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-26T19:09:19.255468Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"'No' guys, this is why I would save the $750 pay for dispute if I were you:",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-05-12T17:55:50.822407Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"After that $50K loss SAtANTANGO took on the China deal before the June market, he¡¯s about to take a second hit--and the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-29T17:18:53.552329Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"You didn't even read Carney resume, retard.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T18:49:27.910949Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,My sister is a nurse and is constantly in the midst of Indian families believing their 90 year old mother (who came last,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +531929,2025-04-03T18:03:05.448588Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,he didnt make a single day in the past month without posting less than 35,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-25T11:25:30.069234Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,lol you have $0 bet be rude to pick up these odds get a job or hobby and place a bet or stop commenting on every post,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b diff --git a/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1568471e7c5ae1f1897c7aab67af29495ee7a5e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_outputs/Qwen3-32B/polymarket/politics_us/qwen3_polymarket_politics_us_task0_1shot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,161 @@ +market_id,created_at,question,text,gt,pred,correct,raw_response,model +516767,2025-04-25T15:50:18.350409Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,3 days for your carney shares become 0c in value.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552845,2025-06-24T04:15:44.763562Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Breaked ceasefire in only 12 minutes lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T16:07:05.462455Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,you mean women pro immigrants and crime?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-29T20:38:45.440062Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,Why are people still buying yes with over +500 dollars,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-28T17:05:01.150142Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Good thing your mom isn¡¯t the arbiter of the resolution criteria?,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T00:13:31.375623Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Holy ¡­ 10 min ago I sold 500 no shares for only 10% loss¡­,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T06:54:43.127628Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Sell your stocks and invest in some reading comprehension lessons instead,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-21T22:05:58.217904Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,ok got 2 dollars just for the lulz,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T14:08:01.447968Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,https://www.youtube.com/live/lGKaVqwTfLc carney speaking on the Vancouver attack,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560539,2025-07-08T10:01:27.681833Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Well then hope that Trump convinves Netanyahu to withdraw its troops from Gaza and let aid deliveries through, which Net",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-30T04:23:24.010241Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"hezbollah just said it will destroy israel lmao, they never agreed to the ceasefire and the vote will end in no winning",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-31T21:54:27.878925Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommiela down the toilet once again. Keep on losing real money komrades.,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-16T06:04:46.182857Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"like the lebanon market? they might end up in prison, but I wont lose my sleep over $1500, I dont like it though",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-03-28T19:42:27.621047Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Im in Canada and I bought shares without any issue. Buy USDC on coinbase and transfer here,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T11:09:47.683934Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"good opportunity for a small no buy, just got in at $0.02",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T04:58:49.412783Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"i want to say that i think they ""yes"" people are right. i but $1k on no stupidly. then did research. tiktok is about to ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +555752,2025-07-15T16:58:13.980899Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,Prepare for the roll into the July 22 market,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-28T03:25:10.210349Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,A vote for Kamala is a vote for Peace,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-06T05:46:07.786414Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kommie will not speak tonight. Chicken shit,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T18:09:03.157854Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i will pay 100usd to any yes holders that buy 1500 in yes right now, discount offer",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-22T20:05:43.946183Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,You know the expectation for this is to wait until after elections for $1 right? Lol not to sell at 0.30cents dor 28 cen,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T23:31:13.600837Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,ur profit is $1 brokie get a job,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-16T00:37:58.947825Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"every serious no holder is just delusional. Im only holding no for the free money, im gonna switch sides. All those capt",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +531929,2025-04-01T14:49:02.052746Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,yeah but I just put like 1 Dollar in those so not that big of a risk and loss,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T14:26:24.856643Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Total volume is now $82M. The market is one of the craziest market and will set precedent for future markets. All No hol,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-31T16:38:14.055221Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,i thought obama promised to close guantanamo? Strange it¡¯s still open,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T17:09:58.122307Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Kamala was installed not voted for ???? Democrat party is garbage,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T22:33:46.630883Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,$193 bucks is a trip to the grocery store... and you wont even get that lol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +527883,2025-03-19T07:41:19.939728Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,Do your own research & jump in. 3 idiots decide the outcome of this market.. highly unpredictable,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-22T00:36:30.469458Z,US military action against Iran before August?,congratulations yes holders this was the most obvious bet in history,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-19T23:48:50.983281Z,US military action against Iran before August?,2 likes and I dump my no bag and I slurp up infinite yessies !,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-22T00:06:17.819653Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"time to buy some more NOs here, who cares about losing an extra $20",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-28T04:55:29.878916Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"goo evening my fellow gamblers!! i cant wait to make free $40 from all the delusional pierre cucks, we should join the o",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-21T12:58:58.001314Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"in warsaw you can field anyone from PO and he will definitely win, even the weakest one",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T12:08:59.193333Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,idk how this market is still selling $1 for $80c https://x.com/idfonline/status/1866090490502042088,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-28T02:26:56.121179Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Alright boys give me a reason to pile in on Poilievre here,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T08:15:26.924475Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,I find it funny the new top trump holder casually has 12 million on trump and than he has a random 10 dollar bet,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-22T00:27:39.637213Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,polymarket isnt stupid look at all this volume more than $100m they are gonna extend the bet then the no's jump to 100% ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-19T11:48:19.132555Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"If @Alexparker can risk more than $700,000, I think I can risk $200 haha.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-29T23:50:04.048992Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,trump looks extra o r a n g e today,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T07:56:40.562216Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"i boguth i sold, i bought, i sold, and i bought again haha",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-21T00:04:45.626724Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,He will make tiny homes with all the banned plastic straws,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-17T09:36:01.512004Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Bentsen has nine not one chance,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +555752,2025-07-05T10:07:04.808077Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,why did you pour all your yes? Rubbish,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-18T00:21:03.384688Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Sorry, retard here. Now that the supreme court supported the TikTok ban 9-0, what are the no holders hoping for?",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +527883,2025-03-25T20:45:14.682125Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,How does polymarket justify the tank in shares of yes holders after the Additional context provided out of the blue. I b,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T17:41:35.036403Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I worked with carney on solving world hunger problem. Our final solution is simple but effective: people should eat thei,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T21:40:47.482451Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,I sold and bought rafal to profit twice,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-18T21:44:40.319768Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,"Learn to read guys. Per cnn article the NSD is handling the redactions - extremely bearish for yes, they always withhold",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-25T00:49:01.537927Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,someone needs to buy $20k worth of shares for it to be 80%. It might have been 80% in a more liquid market,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T02:27:37.231854Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Pierre is gonna end up being one of the worst CPC candidates ever. You¡¯ll see on Monday.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-10T02:33:21.388305Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,I invested $10 learn to count before you learn to speak,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-04-05T15:01:11.823472Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"i mean, its not that simple, and when i bought yes the situationn was different",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-30T04:27:32.436306Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Allen lickballs is a deranged fool this year,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-21T23:04:17.563167Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Risking 23K to make $90 is wild,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-21T20:53:25.307032Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,@HolyMoses7 You bet $7.8k to make $24. You should not be talking about other people's bet bro,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T15:59:10.674675Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"RonDeStantis sold 84,194 Yes at 99.1c $83,436",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-06-15T10:30:16.910064Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,you lowlife trash not everyone has no life like you,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T04:15:43.859885Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,The election is over. Trump is running out of paths to 270. He must win 1. Pennsylvania 2. Michigan 3. Wisconsin 4. Virg,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T23:18:04.805812Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Can¡¯t even mustard up $10 bahahaha always the poors doing the most talking,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-01-25T13:19:58.029854Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,Ofcourse you can¡¯t win a war without weapons. But what good is it if you can¡¯t find emergency services for wounded sol,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-04-28T17:46:54.388802Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"""much more popular on the internet"" that's right, chronically online groyper candidates usually don't do so well in actu",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T06:18:19.585054Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,What are you talking about? The $200 rebate is worthless compared to the cost it adds to us. It's not even enough to pay,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-04-19T22:44:03.408135Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Welp, that sit with polymarket seemingly this fuckers want another FBI raid lmao",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-06T22:29:48.271876Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I opened the files on video too lmao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-24T01:37:12.062007Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,what do you have 40 dollars in the game ?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T23:49:38.080673Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"damn it, I'm sorry. -$4,684.10 then look at this x",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +554010,2025-06-21T21:50:19.014568Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,why they send hella planes if they aint gonna do any explosions???,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-17T15:06:48.008589Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"F U TRUMP, let's see you climb your ass out of this one",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T19:14:02.916648Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Cant wait for my $1000 coming my way soon,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-24T10:01:51.385063Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Will be story about drugs against trza planned by Karol team,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +527883,2025-03-30T13:19:30.690167Z,Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?,lol all your replies are so full of projection. Keep seething and coping you worthless incel trash HAHAHA,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T12:07:56.124174Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I paid $28 for research, show, and enjoyment. Do you understand?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-12-04T13:59:11.622535Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Yes, i am proud of making $230. Are you proud of losing $250?",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T00:49:11.794492Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Yea, Taylor Swift is about to propose to me any day now.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-08-16T23:52:34.761272Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"Joe Biden will be crushed, rip $1.5 million LOL",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-23T12:39:08.679369Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"what a silly response. You should state what job you can get that allows you to save $200,000 within 5-10 years?",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-25T05:23:16.560746Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Awfully confident for what forecasters all have as a coin toss.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-23T19:59:33.693748Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,Betting $199.800 to win $200 is something what I¡¯ll never understand.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T11:55:47.428224Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"because RonDeStantis own $1M worth of ""yes"" shares But he can't sell them because if he does then he end up with only $9",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-05-06T09:29:03.669886Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,More bad news for naworcki KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 33% (+2) PiS-ECR: 29% (-3) Kon-ESN|PfE: 16% (+1) TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 10% (,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T04:30:38.327603Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,bro risked 800 USD for 8 dollars LMAOOOOOOO,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-03-11T19:14:49.336028Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,"Russia has to agree. I doubt it will happen, but I bought Yes just in case.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-19T17:17:30.289875Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,When Israel almost DID NOT invade Syria.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-03-24T02:00:14.462397Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Just 2 days ago Carney was 22% above Poilievre, now he's only 4% above Poilievre, why?",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T12:50:51.460654Z,US military action against Iran before August?,"¡°I like to make the final decision one second before it¡¯s due,¡± Trump said in the Oval Office. ¡°Especially with war,",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T08:07:35.019886Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Massive US Air Force reinforcements at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. 22 KC-135 tankers 53 potential F-16s 100,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T17:25:05.553168Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You really wasted 1200 bucks on something that is already been decided?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T19:43:14.784523Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"We¡¯ve expecienced it in Romania, 2 weeks before.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-12T15:05:35.403258Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"17m tokens commited to the vote, thats what, $60m doing nothing",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-08-04T19:49:54.535833Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"I feel this market is gonna be one of those wild ones by the time it ends, +$10M volume lol",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +560539,2025-07-09T11:26:10.484588Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,"Idk you have to ask him, I'll tell you a fact about bunnies for 10 dollars though",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-08-29T16:26:52.563155Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,nice man you are doing very well,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-08-20T19:27:11.645711Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,I¡¯m seeing this through to day 40,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-09-14T06:10:10.268409Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices? Kamala: ""I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a ne",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-20T22:31:00.239264Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,But i only betted 5 bucks on it :) it is a gamble. I made some money betting No at 70 (30) and selling at 20 (80).,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-19T04:38:21.336673Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Kamala Harris¡¯ peak on polymarket was 53% and that only lasted for a few days. Not comparable.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-18T13:02:23.183899Z,US military action against Iran before August?,I'm more confident that this will resolve YES than my sexuality,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-03-30T23:58:54.787459Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I¡¯m ¡°beating¡± for Canada. If you know what I mean¡­,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-21T11:26:44.336167Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,"lol, ur PnL is sooo much better at $16 at least this guy has balls and also money to lose!",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-12-01T10:18:58.542448Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,u will lose $90 but its ok. life will be okay.,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-02T01:52:08.102608Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,Polonia si a scos banana din cur. Romania o are pana in gat. Felicitari.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-04T14:12:06.486258Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,educate yourself before u feel like ur making a valid point,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-12-03T22:49:35.021742Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"Let's do a quick poll. If you think YES will win, tip me $1. If you think NO will win, tip me $0.99.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-27T09:33:48.331625Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,My guy! I have realized $600 but playing with much less size than you,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-04-19T23:00:18.824979Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,They add contradictory additional remarks to scam you everywhere,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T14:38:08.044198Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"""yes"" guys should take their profit before RonDeStantis sell his $1M worth of ""yes"" shares. he has to break even now or ",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-23T15:45:33.838039Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"With what money??? Making $80k/year and 3/4 goes to living expenses, the other 1/4 to taxes and Immigrant welfare.",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-26T21:54:20.084392Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"4,557 shares @ 25.3c I sold it at 22.8c",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +514139,2025-06-01T23:26:38.978671Z,Will Rafa? Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?,"GUYS JUST REMEMBER. I WENT TO BED FOR 1 HOUR WHEN TRAZA WAS 86C, WOKE UP AND TRAZA WAS 25C. THINGS CAN HAPPEN RAPIDLY. G",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T19:02:17.246058Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"Ouch. Bought 72,413 No at 0.7 ($500)",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-26T16:31:51.163789Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"I see talkin¡¯ but I don¡¯t see $, even $10, or are you saving that for the $10 a day child care thay 99.9% of people do",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-19T02:41:29.218901Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,"Clarification got leaked: ""As per the rules, the greater geographic Golan Heights will count as Israeli territory. For t",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-24T18:32:29.574937Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,Channel 13 Hebrew: Netanyahu discussed with his aides how to explain and present the settlement in the north to the Isra,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-27T20:49:37.411096Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,"Hey, PSYCHO. Just take your L and move on!! You about to lose that 15k and then cry in the corner, It's over yo.",False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +552845,2025-06-23T22:30:42.910906Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,Don't listen to people who were wrong on the Iran market before lmfao,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-25T04:30:33.449728Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"MCGA not listening, keep calling him fat and retarded and hitin dat juul",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-26T20:31:01.638227Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,I can¡¯t imagine being so deluded lol,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T21:07:59.507638Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,FrancisSP8 confirmed what I'd suspected; that PM briefly reset the market as it issued the clarification. Just never see,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T17:29:49.130108Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,He¡¯s talking about a guy who was crazy deep in no and sold for a loss. There has been much more no buys greater than hi,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T11:06:55.111261Z,US military action against Iran before August?,'President Trump gives Iran more time to seek diplomacy' mentioning '2 weeks max',False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +560539,2025-07-09T16:56:36.966805Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?,Can someone buy my 21 shares for 20 dollars this shit will take 6-7 more days to resolve -_-,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T17:17:00.076117Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Chat should I put another 5k in No?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-21T09:15:27.600967Z,US military action against Iran before August?,gonna change my twitter bio to consensus of credible reporting,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-08T19:05:56.860815Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,CSIS also stated that PP had no involvement or knowledge and would have not impacted the result. PP won in a landslide. ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-21T03:36:04.910008Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,Justifax is down 99% ($6000) thinking Canada will have another coalition government¡­ IDIOT,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T04:00:28.444486Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,You excited to be out of $350?,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-19T21:13:36.877772Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,New to Polymarket. The other tiktok ban market had $241k volume this one is at $18.3m. Does the volume affect how heavy ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-04-19T22:18:27.375006Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,people might wanna check the end date,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-27T13:50:16.626149Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,How can anyone vote for a war monger who wants to tax your unrealized gains? Kamala wasn¡¯t even elected in any primary ,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +555752,2025-07-10T19:54:48.416977Z,Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?,I sold july 15 and 31 shares when they were going up ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T23:44:21.376088Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,I¡¯m gonna win $130 with zero risk. You¡¯re gonna like over a thousand for no reason,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +534135,2025-04-06T17:57:56.546671Z,Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?,yea we are f ggot but we make money and also we told you,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T15:35:26.738349Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"That's why I hold, That's why I hold with all I have. That's why I hold.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +510319,2025-03-16T02:08:08.359879Z,Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?,TRUMP IS BOMBING THE HOUTHIS. NO IS A LOCK.,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +797327,2025-12-22T20:49:42.643146Z,Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?,bro this yes guy put $7 mil man crazy,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T00:27:57.883429Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,pretty absurd to add additional context when it's still being actively traded. what a fucking shitshow. I bought this be,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +554010,2025-06-21T22:56:36.149342Z,US military action against Iran by Saturday?,Like this post if you support Black Trans Athletes,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-18T00:49:10.430199Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"a whale just spent $80k USD on ""NO PP"" shares wtfff",True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-20T23:47:46.715301Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"I'm gonna make $10 guaranteed, while you'll lose $500 unless you pull out right now.",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +552845,2025-06-23T22:54:21.619558Z,Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?,An Iranian official confirms that an agreement has been reached to stop the war between Iran and Israel https://x.com/Al,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-11-06T05:44:33.114624Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,Could someone slide anything over so I can buy?,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +560187,2025-09-23T18:54:02.832809Z,Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?,you bought like $12 today bro ??,True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-11T15:50:59.304414Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"JD vance, our vice president is very likely to be our next president. It may be worth the risk because Canada has had 10",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-09T14:54:52.841643Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,Would the market result in yes in the next 24 hours.,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T11:42:15.762284Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,"just put a measly $700 on no, will come back when i make a quarter mill",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T02:11:27.186203Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,The dumbest unheard of lib mp steals more than that on expenses,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-25T18:19:07.246986Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,No chance. She already got two more SS gents to guard her because she is afraid DEMOCRATS will assassinate her and repla,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +551650,2025-06-16T23:35:44.153026Z,US military action against Iran before August?,Israel's Channel 14 is reporting that US forces are bombing Iran,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-21T07:16:18.961747Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Poll shows LPC is maintaining vote efficiency, comfortable majority",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-04-26T09:39:00.183953Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"It was obvious manipulation, they changing rules as they want, cryptobetting apear to be another crypto scam. Bitconeeee",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +507276,2025-01-21T21:50:36.591786Z,TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?,Yes!!!! Thank you for the logic. I am tired of having to explain us law when it¡¯s so easy to lookup and fact check how ,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T21:42:49.593483Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"Anything I say, you won't believe anyways... There's literally no point lol.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +506968,2024-12-20T14:19:34.624434Z,Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?,lol I don't care I only had 5 shares,False,True,False,YES,qwen3:32b +507792,2024-11-26T19:09:19.255468Z,Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?,"'No' guys, this is why I would save the $750 pay for dispute if I were you:",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +537194,2025-05-12T17:55:50.822407Z,Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?,"After that $50K loss SAtANTANGO took on the China deal before the June market, he¡¯s about to take a second hit--and the",True,True,True,YES,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-29T17:18:53.552329Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,"You didn't even read Carney resume, retard.",False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +516767,2025-04-27T18:49:27.910949Z,Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?,My sister is a nurse and is constantly in the midst of Indian families believing their 90 year old mother (who came last,True,False,False,NO,qwen3:32b +531929,2025-04-03T18:03:05.448588Z,Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?,he didnt make a single day in the past month without posting less than 35,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b +253591,2024-10-25T11:25:30.069234Z,Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?,lol you have $0 bet be rude to pick up these odds get a job or hobby and place a bet or stop commenting on every post,False,False,True,NO,qwen3:32b