{ "label": "Case 1 analysis. TR rows: Chrono digital-twin recovery tests; physical reference: archived physical runs (Sim2Real). Rule: per-start rank.", "physical_order": { "P1_lateral": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "P1_heading": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "NN-HD", "PID" ], "P2_lateral": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "P2_heading": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "P3_lateral": [ "MPC", "PID", "NN-MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P3_heading": [ "MPC", "PID", "NN-MPC", "NN-HD" ] }, "physical_pairwise_tests": { "P1_lateral": [ { "pair": "MPC vs NN-MPC", "mean_a": 0.1051, "mean_b": 0.2259, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "MPC vs PID", "mean_a": 0.1051, "mean_b": 0.2673, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "MPC vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.1051, "mean_b": 0.5113, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "NN-MPC vs PID", "mean_a": 0.2259, "mean_b": 0.2673, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "NN-MPC vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.2259, "mean_b": 0.5113, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "PID vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.2673, "mean_b": 0.5113, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 } 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0.3171, "p_perm": 0.0159, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "NN-MPC vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.2735, "mean_b": 0.6626, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "PID vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.3171, "mean_b": 0.6626, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 } ], "P2_heading": [ { "pair": "MPC vs NN-MPC", "mean_a": 0.0659, "mean_b": 0.1284, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "MPC vs PID", "mean_a": 0.0659, "mean_b": 0.1447, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "MPC vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.0659, "mean_b": 0.1782, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "NN-MPC vs PID", "mean_a": 0.1284, "mean_b": 0.1447, "p_perm": 0.0556, "p_holm": 0.0556 }, { "pair": "NN-MPC vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.1284, "mean_b": 0.1782, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": "PID vs NN-HD", "mean_a": 0.1447, "mean_b": 0.1782, "p_perm": 0.0079, "p_holm": 0.0474 } ], "P3_lateral": [ { "pair": "MPC vs NN-MPC", "mean_a": 0.0891, "mean_b": 0.1635, "p_perm": 0.0159, "p_holm": 0.0474 }, { "pair": 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"P3_heading": 1.1 }, "resolved_pairs_correct": [ 21, 32 ] }, "Nominal simulation (2024 archive)": { "order": { "P1_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P1_heading": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P2_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P2_heading": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P3_lateral": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "P3_heading": [ "PID", "NN-MPC", "NN-HD", "MPC" ] }, "tau": { "P1_lateral": 0.33, "P1_heading": 0.0, "P2_lateral": 0.33, "P2_heading": 0.33, "P3_lateral": 0.67, "P3_heading": 0.0 }, "tau_ci95": { "P1_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P1_heading": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "P2_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P2_heading": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P3_lateral": [ 0.67, 1.0 ], "P3_heading": [ -0.33, 0.0 ] }, "mean_tau": 0.28, "mean_tau_ci95": [ 0.22, 0.33 ], "exact_order_matches": 0, "best_selected": 1, "selected_error_ratio_to_best": { "P1_lateral": 2.15, "P1_heading": 1.96, "P2_lateral": 2.65, "P2_heading": 1.95, "P3_lateral": 1.0, "P3_heading": 1.1 }, "resolved_pairs_correct": [ 20, 32 ] }, "Monte Carlo, start jitter (RF-A)": { "order": { "P1_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P1_heading": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P2_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P2_heading": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P3_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "P3_heading": [ "PID", "NN-MPC", "NN-HD", "MPC" ] }, "tau": { "P1_lateral": 0.33, "P1_heading": 0.0, "P2_lateral": 0.33, "P2_heading": 0.33, "P3_lateral": 0.33, "P3_heading": 0.0 }, "tau_ci95": { "P1_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P1_heading": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "P2_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P2_heading": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P3_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.67 ], "P3_heading": [ -0.33, 0.0 ] }, "mean_tau": 0.22, "mean_tau_ci95": [ 0.17, 0.28 ], "exact_order_matches": 0, "best_selected": 0, "selected_error_ratio_to_best": { "P1_lateral": 2.15, "P1_heading": 1.96, "P2_lateral": 2.65, "P2_heading": 1.95, "P3_lateral": 1.84, "P3_heading": 1.1 }, "resolved_pairs_correct": [ 19, 32 ] }, "Monte Carlo, jitter + disturbances (RF-B)": { "order": { "P1_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P1_heading": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P2_lateral": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P2_heading": [ "NN-MPC", "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD" ], "P3_lateral": [ "PID", "MPC", "NN-HD", "NN-MPC" ], "P3_heading": [ "PID", "NN-HD", "MPC", "NN-MPC" ] }, "tau": { "P1_lateral": 0.33, "P1_heading": 0.0, "P2_lateral": 0.33, "P2_heading": 0.33, "P3_lateral": 0.33, "P3_heading": 0.0 }, "tau_ci95": { "P1_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P1_heading": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "P2_lateral": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P2_heading": [ 0.33, 0.33 ], "P3_lateral": [ 0.0, 0.33 ], "P3_heading": [ 0.0, 0.33 ] }, "mean_tau": 0.22, "mean_tau_ci95": [ 0.17, 0.28 ], "exact_order_matches": 0, "best_selected": 0, "selected_error_ratio_to_best": { "P1_lateral": 2.15, "P1_heading": 1.96, "P2_lateral": 2.65, "P2_heading": 1.95, "P3_lateral": 1.56, "P3_heading": 1.1 }, "resolved_pairs_correct": [ 19, 32 ] } }, "tr_minus_nominal": { "TR minus nominal, mean tau": 0.5, "ci95": [ 0.5, 0.5 ] }, "tr_minus_nominal_tables_II_III": { "TR minus nominal (Tables II-III), mean tau": 0.56, "ci95": [ 0.56, 0.56 ], "min": 0.56, "share_of_replicates_gt_0": 1.0 }, "offset_sweep": [ { "n": 200, "order": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "mean_rank": { "MPC": 1.42, "NN-MPC": 2.28, "PID": 3.03, "NN-HD": 3.27 }, "rank_pct": { "MPC": [ 75.8, 11.5, 7.5, 5.2 ], "NN-MPC": [ 8.8, 62.0, 21.5, 7.8 ], "PID": [ 6.5, 15.0, 47.8, 30.8 ], "NN-HD": [ 9.0, 11.5, 23.2, 56.2 ] }, "fail_pct": { "MPC": 0.0, "NN-MPC": 0.0, "PID": 0.0, "NN-HD": 0.0 }, "n_all_recover": 200, "mean_st_all_recover": { "MPC": 1.28, "NN-MPC": 1.58, "PID": 1.77, "NN-HD": 2.27 }, "pairwise_win_rate_ci95": { "MPC beats NN-MPC": [ 0.86, [ 0.818, 0.9 ] ], "MPC beats PID": [ 0.858, [ 0.815, 0.897 ] ], "MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.86, [ 0.815, 0.897 ] ], "NN-MPC beats PID": [ 0.782, [ 0.735, 0.83 ] ], "NN-MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.795, [ 0.745, 0.845 ] ], "PID beats NN-HD": [ 0.612, [ 0.552, 0.675 ] ] }, "range": "S0", "mean_tau_vs_physical": 0.83 }, { "n": 200, "order": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "mean_rank": { "MPC": 1.14, "NN-MPC": 1.92, "PID": 2.96, "NN-HD": 3.98 }, "rank_pct": { "MPC": [ 89.5, 8.5, 0.5, 1.5 ], "NN-MPC": [ 9.8, 88.2, 2.0, 0.0 ], "PID": [ 0.8, 3.2, 95.0, 1.0 ], "NN-HD": [ 0.0, 0.0, 2.5, 97.5 ] }, "fail_pct": { "MPC": 0.5, "NN-MPC": 0.0, "PID": 0.0, "NN-HD": 0.0 }, "n_all_recover": 199, "mean_st_all_recover": { "MPC": 4.7, "NN-MPC": 4.88, "PID": 5.25, "NN-HD": 7.98 }, "pairwise_win_rate_ci95": { "MPC beats NN-MPC": [ 0.898, [ 0.855, 0.94 ] ], "MPC beats PID": [ 0.978, [ 0.955, 0.995 ] ], "MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.985, [ 0.965, 1.0 ] ], "NN-MPC beats PID": [ 0.975, [ 0.95, 0.995 ] ], "NN-MPC beats NN-HD": [ 1.0, [ 1.0, 1.0 ] ], "PID beats NN-HD": [ 0.99, [ 0.975, 1.0 ] ] }, "range": "S1", "mean_tau_vs_physical": 0.83 }, { "n": 400, "order": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "mean_rank": { "MPC": 1.27, "NN-MPC": 2.17, "PID": 2.68, "NN-HD": 3.88 }, "rank_pct": { "MPC": [ 90.2, 0.9, 0.1, 8.8 ], "NN-MPC": [ 9.0, 66.9, 22.8, 1.4 ], "PID": [ 0.8, 31.8, 66.6, 0.9 ], "NN-HD": [ 0.0, 0.5, 10.5, 89.0 ] }, "fail_pct": { "MPC": 8.2, "NN-MPC": 1.0, "PID": 0.8, "NN-HD": 0.0 }, "n_all_recover": 361, "mean_st_all_recover": { "MPC": 6.1, "NN-MPC": 6.54, "PID": 6.64, "NN-HD": 10.09 }, "pairwise_win_rate_ci95": { "MPC beats NN-MPC": [ 0.902, [ 0.875, 0.93 ] ], "MPC beats PID": [ 0.911, [ 0.884, 0.938 ] ], "MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.912, [ 0.885, 0.94 ] ], "NN-MPC beats PID": [ 0.752, [ 0.713, 0.796 ] ], "NN-MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.985, [ 0.973, 0.995 ] ], "PID beats NN-HD": [ 0.988, [ 0.977, 0.998 ] ] }, "range": "S2", "mean_tau_vs_physical": 0.83 }, { "n": 200, "order": [ "MPC", "NN-MPC", "PID", "NN-HD" ], "mean_rank": { "MPC": 1.31, "NN-MPC": 1.99, "PID": 2.92, "NN-HD": 3.77 }, "rank_pct": { "MPC": [ 83.9, 6.9, 3.4, 5.9 ], "NN-MPC": [ 11.9, 79.1, 7.1, 1.9 ], "PID": [ 1.1, 12.4, 79.4, 7.1 ], "NN-HD": [ 3.1, 1.6, 10.1, 85.1 ] }, "fail_pct": { "MPC": 4.0, "NN-MPC": 0.5, "PID": 0.5, "NN-HD": 0.0 }, "n_all_recover": 191, "mean_st_all_recover": { "MPC": 4.46, "NN-MPC": 4.79, "PID": 5.08, "NN-HD": 7.61 }, "pairwise_win_rate_ci95": { "MPC beats NN-MPC": [ 0.855, [ 0.807, 0.902 ] ], "MPC beats PID": [ 0.915, [ 0.875, 0.95 ] ], "MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.918, [ 0.877, 0.953 ] ], "NN-MPC beats PID": [ 0.918, [ 0.877, 0.953 ] ], "NN-MPC beats NN-HD": [ 0.948, [ 0.915, 0.975 ] ], "PID beats NN-HD": [ 0.908, [ 0.868, 0.945 ] ] }, "range": "S3", "mean_tau_vs_physical": 0.83 }, { "n": 200, "order": [ "MPC", "PID", "NN-MPC", "NN-HD" ], "mean_rank": { "MPC": 1.7, "NN-MPC": 2.48, "PID": 2.05, "NN-HD": 3.77 }, "rank_pct": { "MPC": [ 73.6, 0.6, 8.4, 17.4 ], "NN-MPC": [ 18.6, 16.4, 63.4, 1.6 ], "PID": [ 7.1, 81.9, 9.9, 1.1 ], "NN-HD": [ 0.6, 1.1, 18.4, 79.9 ] }, "fail_pct": { "MPC": 27.0, "NN-MPC": 3.5, "PID": 3.0, "NN-HD": 18.0 }, "n_all_recover": 143, "mean_st_all_recover": { "MPC": 7.13, "NN-MPC": 7.75, "PID": 7.59, 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