diff --git a/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/cross_run.log b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/cross_run.log new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e8e93330c4ec5c421c0aa32ffe72b60c37b51f35 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/cross_run.log @@ -0,0 +1,52 @@ +informative: 15 of 15 | min obs thinned: 629 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_lora16sat_s26750_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 1, comparator closer 5, n.s. 7 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_lora16sat_s26750_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 3, comparator closer 3, n.s. 7 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_lora64sat_s59000_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 1, comparator closer 4, n.s. 8 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_lora64sat_s59000_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 4, comparator closer 2, n.s. 7 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_fullsat_s108500_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 2, comparator closer 6, n.s. 5 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_fullsat_s108500_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 3, comparator closer 3, n.s. 7 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs xcalL_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 1, comparator closer 6, n.s. 6 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs xcalL_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 2, comparator closer 5, n.s. 6 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_fullsat_s20000_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 0, comparator closer 6, n.s. 7 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_fullsat_s20000_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 0, comparator closer 3, n.s. 10 +locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 vs locoL_lora16sat_s26750_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 2, comparator closer 3, n.s. 8 +locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 vs locoL_lora16sat_s26750_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 5, comparator closer 3, n.s. 5 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 3, comparator closer 5, n.s. 5 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 3, comparator closer 5, n.s. 5 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_scratchsat_s100000_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 2, comparator closer 3, n.s. 8 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_scratchsat_s100000_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 2, comparator closer 3, n.s. 8 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_scratchsat_s150000_K1000 [own_ref]: scratch closer 0, comparator closer 2, n.s. 11 +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 vs locoL_scratchsat_s150000_K1000 [pretrained_depth_ref]: scratch closer 0, comparator closer 2, n.s. 11 + arm variant states eligibility n_pairs kept reversed flat median_gen_over_obs_diff_kept lost_pairs + zs__raw own_ref rare_states eligible_own 21 15 6 0 0.091808 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + zs__raw own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 15 6 0 0.091808 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + xcalL_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 25 19 6 0 0.228907 Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; DN2 / ABC B | adult sepsis vs adult HC; DN2 / ABC B | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC + xcalL_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 19 2 0 0.228907 Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC + locoL_lora16sat_s26750_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 11 12 0 0.137021 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | all sepsis vs all controls; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_lora16sat_s26750_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 11 10 0 0.137021 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_lora64sat_s59000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 22 10 12 0 0.131103 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | all sepsis vs all controls; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_lora64sat_s59000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 10 11 0 0.131103 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_fullsat_s20000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 15 8 0 0.289959 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | all sepsis vs all controls; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_fullsat_s20000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 15 6 0 0.289959 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_fullsat_s108500_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 16 7 0 0.149520 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_fullsat_s108500_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 16 5 0 0.149520 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 26 17 9 0 0.073919 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; DN2 / ABC B | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 15 6 0 0.073919 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 15 8 0 0.116441 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls + locoL_scratchsat_s50000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 15 6 0 0.116441 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s100000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 26 17 9 0 0.036039 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; DN2 / ABC B | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s100000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 15 6 0 0.035548 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s100000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 15 8 0 0.054710 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s100000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 15 6 0 0.054710 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s150000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 26 18 8 0 0.035622 Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; DN2 / ABC B | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s150000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 16 5 0 0.033845 Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s150000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 16 7 0 0.047973 Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s150000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 16 5 0 0.047973 Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_own 26 16 10 0 0.049172 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; DN2 / ABC B | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 14 7 0 0.041622 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_own 23 14 9 0 0.067088 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC +locoL_scratchsat_s162000_K1000 pretrained_depth_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 14 7 0 0.067088 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; Cytotoxic CD4 T | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cytotoxic CD4 T | all sepsis vs all controls; Granulocyte-like (LDG) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC + lora_n5__raw own_ref rare_states eligible_own 25 18 7 0 0.258039 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls; DN2 / ABC B | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC + lora_n5__raw own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 17 4 0 0.245401 C1Q-high monocyte (reference) | adult sepsis vs adult HC; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; ISG-high T | all sepsis vs all controls + real_lora__raw own_ref rare_states eligible_own 26 22 4 0 0.420212 Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC; Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) | all sepsis vs all controls; Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC + real_lora__raw own_ref rare_states eligible_common 21 19 2 0 0.344018 Proliferating T (label) | all sepsis vs all controls; Plasmablast (markers) | paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC diff --git a/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_confound_cross_run.log b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_confound_cross_run.log new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7f5cbdefd0440b763d5ceea3741cbb37c7b7e45f --- /dev/null +++ b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_confound_cross_run.log @@ -0,0 +1,543 @@ +== R: ratios, re-weighted estimators, LODO == + state arm ratio_pool_raw ratio_pool ratio_pool_lo ratio_pool_hi ratio_gw ratio_dm lodo_ratio_min lodo_ratio_max max_donor_share_gen_state max_donor_share_obsthin_state + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) zs 0.026 0.026 0.017 0.041 0.022 0.021 0.025 0.029 0.079 0.117 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) xcal 0.074 0.075 0.051 0.111 0.060 0.049 0.071 0.082 0.077 0.113 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) r16 0.035 0.035 0.022 0.056 0.033 0.031 0.032 0.039 0.098 0.116 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) r64 0.056 0.057 0.038 0.088 0.048 0.047 0.052 0.063 0.085 0.116 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) full20k 0.084 0.085 0.056 0.127 0.071 0.063 0.081 0.094 0.078 0.116 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) full108k 0.093 0.094 0.063 0.141 0.084 0.086 0.088 0.103 0.128 0.117 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) s50k 0.092 0.092 0.064 0.139 0.075 0.083 0.086 0.100 0.079 0.113 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) s100k 0.082 0.082 0.058 0.122 0.068 0.067 0.076 0.089 0.096 0.113 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) s150k 0.070 0.071 0.049 0.104 0.057 0.054 0.065 0.076 0.094 0.113 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) s162k 0.068 0.068 0.050 0.097 0.056 0.053 0.065 0.073 0.070 0.113 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) own5 0.531 0.531 0.317 0.822 0.492 0.234 0.478 0.581 0.184 0.113 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference) own58 0.502 0.502 0.344 0.730 0.446 0.381 0.463 0.549 0.157 0.112 + Cycling T/NK zs 0.830 0.831 0.565 1.294 0.622 0.793 0.800 0.927 0.044 0.105 + Cycling T/NK xcal 0.458 0.459 0.298 0.736 0.369 0.496 0.440 0.512 0.046 0.105 + Cycling T/NK r16 0.151 0.152 0.092 0.261 0.118 0.146 0.137 0.169 0.092 0.105 + Cycling T/NK r64 0.172 0.173 0.107 0.281 0.133 0.171 0.161 0.193 0.079 0.103 + Cycling T/NK full20k 0.348 0.349 0.226 0.563 0.275 0.325 0.331 0.388 0.065 0.107 + Cycling T/NK full108k 0.356 0.357 0.236 0.563 0.287 0.354 0.343 0.389 0.048 0.104 + Cycling T/NK s50k 0.061 0.061 0.034 0.109 0.050 0.054 0.054 0.069 0.133 0.114 + Cycling T/NK s100k 0.124 0.125 0.067 0.219 0.101 0.116 0.105 0.141 0.170 0.114 + Cycling T/NK s150k 0.068 0.068 0.040 0.119 0.055 0.063 0.063 0.076 0.109 0.114 + Cycling T/NK s162k 0.049 0.049 0.027 0.085 0.040 0.042 0.045 0.056 0.143 0.114 + Cycling T/NK own5 0.288 0.288 0.190 0.464 0.236 0.300 0.272 0.319 0.071 0.113 + Cycling T/NK own58 0.536 0.536 0.346 0.803 0.469 0.479 0.487 0.597 0.185 0.114 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) zs 0.361 0.362 0.244 0.560 0.281 0.403 0.342 0.406 0.065 0.116 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) xcal 0.245 0.246 0.165 0.372 0.209 0.268 0.238 0.279 0.057 0.119 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) r16 0.098 0.099 0.064 0.155 0.082 0.104 0.095 0.111 0.043 0.118 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) r64 0.140 0.141 0.090 0.221 0.116 0.145 0.127 0.159 0.108 0.117 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) full20k 0.207 0.208 0.143 0.306 0.173 0.198 0.198 0.232 0.063 0.117 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) full108k 0.227 0.228 0.155 0.342 0.197 0.249 0.219 0.253 0.056 0.115 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) s50k 0.079 0.080 0.051 0.127 0.071 0.074 0.073 0.090 0.093 0.116 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) s100k 0.108 0.109 0.066 0.173 0.095 0.106 0.094 0.122 0.142 0.116 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) s150k 0.073 0.073 0.048 0.112 0.064 0.068 0.067 0.082 0.095 0.116 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) s162k 0.051 0.052 0.032 0.077 0.045 0.049 0.048 0.058 0.143 0.116 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) own5 0.157 0.157 0.109 0.230 0.136 0.166 0.150 0.175 0.078 0.116 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) own58 0.297 0.297 0.192 0.441 0.272 0.278 0.248 0.333 0.232 0.116 + Proliferating T (label) zs 1.964 1.965 1.353 3.015 1.419 1.884 1.884 2.164 0.063 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) xcal 0.642 0.643 0.441 0.988 0.496 0.613 0.614 0.715 0.062 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) r16 0.789 0.789 0.554 1.179 0.609 0.740 0.755 0.872 0.066 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) r64 1.037 1.038 0.752 1.547 0.814 1.008 0.998 1.147 0.071 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) full20k 1.084 1.084 0.774 1.632 0.845 1.092 1.039 1.195 0.056 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) full108k 1.127 1.127 0.801 1.696 0.922 1.231 1.085 1.244 0.060 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) s50k 0.444 0.445 0.301 0.686 0.356 0.420 0.427 0.493 0.046 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) s100k 0.521 0.521 0.361 0.804 0.415 0.499 0.498 0.579 0.047 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) s150k 0.564 0.564 0.387 0.859 0.446 0.530 0.539 0.623 0.075 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) s162k 0.532 0.532 0.377 0.807 0.423 0.499 0.512 0.588 0.055 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) own5 0.616 0.616 0.446 0.916 0.493 0.594 0.597 0.675 0.060 0.105 + Proliferating T (label) own58 0.776 0.776 0.545 1.094 0.658 0.707 0.742 0.858 0.150 0.105 + Plasmablast (label) zs 0.386 0.386 0.260 0.611 0.373 0.373 0.339 0.429 0.150 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) xcal 0.779 0.779 0.533 1.234 0.753 0.753 0.725 0.900 0.117 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) r16 1.377 1.377 0.978 2.173 1.331 1.331 1.299 1.589 0.118 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) r64 1.010 1.010 0.700 1.546 0.976 0.976 0.932 1.110 0.176 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) full20k 1.774 1.774 1.219 2.707 1.714 1.714 1.639 1.957 0.156 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) full108k 2.214 2.214 1.474 3.605 2.139 2.140 2.038 2.473 0.146 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) s50k 0.486 0.487 0.347 0.635 0.470 0.470 0.464 0.536 0.260 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) s100k 0.675 0.676 0.499 0.924 0.653 0.653 0.641 0.744 0.233 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) s150k 0.794 0.794 0.616 1.128 0.767 0.767 0.769 0.869 0.178 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) s162k 0.875 0.875 0.669 1.213 0.845 0.845 0.851 0.959 0.203 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) own5 0.405 0.405 0.264 0.711 0.392 0.392 0.378 0.497 0.081 0.235 + Plasmablast (label) own58 0.757 0.758 0.441 1.417 0.732 0.732 0.629 0.946 0.183 0.235 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) zs 0.080 0.080 0.056 0.117 0.062 0.059 0.077 0.089 0.117 0.136 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) xcal 0.724 0.724 0.546 1.045 0.512 0.449 0.695 0.776 0.077 0.114 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) r16 0.121 0.121 0.079 0.184 0.111 0.088 0.110 0.130 0.144 0.138 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) r64 0.113 0.113 0.080 0.166 0.091 0.072 0.101 0.121 0.145 0.141 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) full20k 0.292 0.292 0.188 0.475 0.235 0.200 0.254 0.316 0.175 0.144 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) full108k 0.265 0.265 0.157 0.469 0.242 0.196 0.228 0.290 0.183 0.142 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) s50k 0.158 0.158 0.105 0.223 0.115 0.095 0.139 0.172 0.203 0.108 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) s100k 0.116 0.117 0.073 0.172 0.087 0.071 0.099 0.126 0.237 0.108 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) s150k 0.105 0.105 0.070 0.149 0.076 0.066 0.093 0.114 0.201 0.108 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) s162k 0.102 0.102 0.059 0.159 0.073 0.059 0.082 0.112 0.280 0.108 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) own5 0.644 0.644 0.214 1.263 0.400 0.305 0.457 0.711 0.362 0.114 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) own58 0.707 0.707 0.437 1.139 0.661 0.600 0.631 0.778 0.181 0.113 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) zs 0.096 0.097 0.061 0.160 0.097 0.089 0.082 0.111 0.165 0.145 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) xcal 0.252 0.253 0.161 0.397 0.240 0.195 0.218 0.280 0.160 0.137 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) r16 0.062 0.063 0.035 0.113 0.072 0.072 0.055 0.074 0.156 0.150 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) r64 0.070 0.071 0.045 0.118 0.070 0.074 0.065 0.080 0.097 0.152 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) full20k 0.150 0.151 0.101 0.241 0.161 0.154 0.141 0.170 0.096 0.151 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) full108k 0.114 0.115 0.075 0.178 0.133 0.118 0.107 0.128 0.146 0.151 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) s50k 0.059 0.060 0.042 0.089 0.056 0.060 0.056 0.065 0.091 0.133 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) s100k 0.022 0.023 0.011 0.040 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.026 0.143 0.133 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) s150k 0.020 0.020 0.010 0.036 0.018 0.014 0.017 0.022 0.200 0.133 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) s162k 0.024 0.025 0.013 0.042 0.023 0.030 0.023 0.029 0.143 0.133 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) own5 0.304 0.305 0.078 0.688 0.285 0.157 0.142 0.332 0.557 0.136 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) own58 0.228 0.229 0.088 0.508 0.240 0.202 0.118 0.251 0.503 0.135 + HSPC zs 0.549 0.552 0.345 0.809 0.542 0.543 0.515 0.606 0.069 0.087 + HSPC xcal 1.681 1.683 1.215 2.367 1.666 1.671 1.595 1.825 0.060 0.088 + HSPC r16 1.617 1.619 1.149 2.310 1.597 1.601 1.511 1.776 0.067 0.095 + HSPC r64 2.957 2.958 2.062 4.233 2.922 2.930 2.815 3.217 0.051 0.091 + HSPC full20k 1.403 1.406 1.021 1.962 1.392 1.396 1.317 1.507 0.079 0.091 + HSPC full108k 2.966 2.967 2.093 4.220 2.927 2.935 2.781 3.277 0.080 0.096 + HSPC s50k 0.957 0.960 0.711 1.288 0.954 0.957 0.912 1.041 0.054 0.089 + HSPC s100k 2.581 2.582 2.075 3.368 2.567 2.573 2.502 2.767 0.035 0.089 + HSPC s150k 1.300 1.302 1.015 1.669 1.295 1.298 1.262 1.403 0.040 0.089 + HSPC s162k 1.313 1.315 1.034 1.729 1.308 1.311 1.256 1.410 0.049 0.089 + HSPC own5 0.705 0.708 0.457 1.068 0.703 0.704 0.643 0.777 0.103 0.088 + HSPC own58 0.399 0.402 0.252 0.597 0.399 0.400 0.366 0.442 0.098 0.089 + Cytotoxic CD4 T zs 0.431 0.433 0.324 0.581 0.502 0.508 0.420 0.471 0.059 0.098 + Cytotoxic CD4 T xcal 2.024 2.026 1.558 2.669 2.645 2.669 1.953 2.176 0.039 0.087 + Cytotoxic CD4 T r16 1.409 1.411 1.049 1.901 1.584 1.987 1.339 1.527 0.068 0.095 + Cytotoxic CD4 T r64 1.701 1.703 1.281 2.322 1.882 2.136 1.599 1.833 0.078 0.099 + Cytotoxic CD4 T full20k 1.622 1.623 1.213 2.142 1.804 2.718 1.578 1.764 0.083 0.091 + Cytotoxic CD4 T full108k 1.609 1.611 1.211 2.175 1.804 2.732 1.539 1.733 0.061 0.096 + Cytotoxic CD4 T s50k 0.860 0.861 0.643 1.178 0.940 1.744 0.834 0.926 0.052 0.085 + Cytotoxic CD4 T s100k 1.005 1.006 0.774 1.344 1.068 1.499 0.958 1.086 0.069 0.085 + Cytotoxic CD4 T s150k 0.950 0.952 0.735 1.260 0.975 1.596 0.913 1.016 0.063 0.085 + Cytotoxic CD4 T s162k 0.940 0.942 0.710 1.263 0.952 1.560 0.901 1.014 0.066 0.085 + Cytotoxic CD4 T own5 1.062 1.063 0.828 1.357 0.976 0.935 1.030 1.137 0.048 0.086 + Cytotoxic CD4 T own58 1.350 1.351 1.094 1.677 1.287 1.218 1.304 1.432 0.059 0.085 +== C: scratch vs comparators, three estimators, LODO-bootstrap stability == +verdict disagreements between estimators (rare states): + comparison variant state dm gw pool estimators_agree +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig False +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant False +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False +s162k vs full108k own_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False +s162k vs full108k own_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig not_significant False +s162k vs full108k own_ref Proliferating T (label) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs full20k own_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs full20k own_ref ISG-high T comparator_closer_sig not_significant not_significant False + s162k vs full20k own_ref Proliferating T (label) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) comparator_closer_sig not_significant not_significant False + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) not_significant not_significant scratch_closer_sig False + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T not_significant scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig False + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs r64 own_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs r64 own_ref Proliferating T (label) not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig False + s162k vs s50k own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig False + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref DN2 / ABC B comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant False + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) comparator_closer_sig not_significant not_significant False + s162k vs xcal own_ref Proliferating T (label) comparator_closer_sig not_significant not_significant False + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) not_significant not_significant scratch_closer_sig False + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant False + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref DN2 / ABC B not_significant not_significant scratch_closer_sig False + s50k vs r16 own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) comparator_closer_sig not_significant not_significant False +pooled-estimator significant verdicts with LODO stability: + comparison variant state D D_lo D_hi verdict lodo_D_min lodo_D_max lodo_verdict_same_frac + s162k vs r16 own_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) -0.962 -1.549 -0.429 scratch_closer_sig -1.073 -0.875 1.000 + s162k vs r16 own_ref Cycling T/NK 1.623 0.989 2.314 comparator_closer_sig 1.522 1.833 1.000 + s162k vs r16 own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.930 0.438 1.501 comparator_closer_sig 0.868 1.128 1.000 + s162k vs r16 own_ref Proliferating T (label) 0.568 0.093 0.795 comparator_closer_sig 0.526 0.603 0.927 + s162k vs r16 own_ref Plasmablast (markers) 1.213 0.851 1.553 comparator_closer_sig 1.159 1.380 1.000 + s162k vs r16 own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.344 0.478 2.253 comparator_closer_sig 1.169 1.555 1.000 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) -1.174 -1.749 -0.651 scratch_closer_sig -1.285 -1.091 1.000 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cycling T/NK 1.226 0.613 1.907 comparator_closer_sig 1.125 1.427 1.000 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) 0.568 0.093 0.795 comparator_closer_sig 0.526 0.603 0.927 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Plasmablast (markers) 0.566 0.258 0.825 comparator_closer_sig 0.510 0.676 1.000 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref DN2 / ABC B -0.498 -0.844 -0.166 scratch_closer_sig -0.557 -0.431 1.000 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) -1.020 -1.948 -0.203 scratch_closer_sig -1.196 -0.848 1.000 + s162k vs r64 own_ref Cycling T/NK 1.812 1.279 2.428 comparator_closer_sig 1.730 1.939 1.000 + s162k vs r64 own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 1.446 1.013 1.934 comparator_closer_sig 1.382 1.558 1.000 + s162k vs r64 own_ref Plasmablast (markers) 1.018 0.690 1.377 comparator_closer_sig 0.949 1.136 1.000 + s162k vs r64 own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.510 0.771 2.366 comparator_closer_sig 1.362 1.688 1.000 + s162k vs r64 own_ref HSPC -1.169 -1.494 -0.810 scratch_closer_sig -1.211 -1.101 1.000 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) -0.487 -0.915 -0.044 scratch_closer_sig -0.571 -0.424 0.890 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref Cycling T/NK 1.303 0.797 1.897 comparator_closer_sig 1.221 1.426 1.000 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.794 0.358 1.278 comparator_closer_sig 0.730 0.892 1.000 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref DN2 / ABC B -0.647 -0.907 -0.392 scratch_closer_sig -0.684 -0.595 1.000 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref HSPC -0.951 -1.262 -0.595 scratch_closer_sig -0.991 -0.883 1.000 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T -0.573 -0.872 -0.120 scratch_closer_sig -0.617 -0.496 1.000 +s162k vs full108k own_ref Cycling T/NK 2.857 2.271 3.595 comparator_closer_sig 2.788 3.033 1.000 +s162k vs full108k own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 2.135 1.625 2.784 comparator_closer_sig 2.078 2.298 1.000 +s162k vs full108k own_ref Plasmablast (label) -0.954 -1.652 -0.029 scratch_closer_sig -1.227 -0.809 0.744 +s162k vs full108k own_ref Plasmablast (markers) 1.003 0.124 1.837 comparator_closer_sig 0.752 1.134 0.939 +s162k vs full108k own_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 1.377 0.510 2.285 comparator_closer_sig 1.165 1.819 1.000 +s162k vs full108k own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 2.208 1.352 3.128 comparator_closer_sig 2.040 2.419 1.000 +s162k vs full108k own_ref DN2 / ABC B 0.796 0.503 1.116 comparator_closer_sig 0.761 0.862 1.000 +s162k vs full108k own_ref HSPC -1.174 -1.526 -0.794 scratch_closer_sig -1.229 -1.079 1.000 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Cycling T/NK 2.410 1.829 3.139 comparator_closer_sig 2.341 2.587 1.000 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 1.561 1.059 2.187 comparator_closer_sig 1.507 1.711 1.000 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Plasmablast (label) -0.954 -1.652 -0.029 scratch_closer_sig -1.227 -0.809 0.744 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.268 0.413 2.199 comparator_closer_sig 1.071 1.462 1.000 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref HSPC -0.980 -1.342 -0.602 scratch_closer_sig -1.035 -0.882 1.000 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T -0.580 -0.876 -0.058 scratch_closer_sig -0.629 -0.531 0.866 + s162k vs xcal own_ref Cycling T/NK 3.219 2.718 3.860 comparator_closer_sig 3.141 3.377 1.000 + s162k vs xcal own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 2.246 1.761 2.811 comparator_closer_sig 2.182 2.391 1.000 + s162k vs xcal own_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 2.825 2.224 3.545 comparator_closer_sig 2.770 3.188 1.000 + s162k vs xcal own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 3.339 2.556 4.172 comparator_closer_sig 3.108 3.495 1.000 + s162k vs xcal own_ref DN2 / ABC B 0.891 0.461 1.313 comparator_closer_sig 0.794 0.971 1.000 + s162k vs xcal own_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T -0.932 -1.280 -0.261 scratch_closer_sig -1.102 -0.866 1.000 + s162k vs xcal own_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) 2.416 1.872 3.033 comparator_closer_sig 2.310 2.523 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Cycling T/NK 2.822 2.318 3.458 comparator_closer_sig 2.744 2.971 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 1.716 1.223 2.271 comparator_closer_sig 1.651 1.845 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Plasmablast (markers) -0.530 -0.866 -0.208 scratch_closer_sig -0.603 -0.468 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 2.179 1.588 2.892 comparator_closer_sig 2.117 2.517 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 2.477 1.652 3.334 comparator_closer_sig 2.243 2.618 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Cytotoxic CD4 T -0.915 -1.181 -0.378 scratch_closer_sig -0.985 -0.871 1.000 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) 1.566 0.989 2.176 comparator_closer_sig 1.463 1.675 1.000 + s162k vs full20k own_ref Cycling T/NK 2.823 2.208 3.562 comparator_closer_sig 2.746 3.037 1.000 + s162k vs full20k own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 2.002 1.516 2.622 comparator_closer_sig 1.925 2.198 1.000 + s162k vs full20k own_ref Plasmablast (markers) 1.423 0.604 1.806 comparator_closer_sig 1.174 1.567 1.000 + s162k vs full20k own_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 1.516 0.661 2.339 comparator_closer_sig 1.355 1.948 1.000 + s162k vs full20k own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 2.597 1.852 3.433 comparator_closer_sig 2.477 2.809 1.000 + s162k vs full20k own_ref DN2 / ABC B 0.602 0.220 0.962 comparator_closer_sig 0.528 0.661 1.000 + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref Cycling T/NK 2.432 1.809 3.172 comparator_closer_sig 2.355 2.645 1.000 + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 1.495 1.006 2.111 comparator_closer_sig 1.417 1.677 1.000 + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.567 0.795 2.425 comparator_closer_sig 1.447 1.765 1.000 + s50k vs r16 own_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) -1.403 -1.927 -0.879 scratch_closer_sig -1.502 -1.332 1.000 + s50k vs r16 own_ref Cycling T/NK 1.309 0.699 1.977 comparator_closer_sig 1.233 1.468 1.000 + s50k vs r16 own_ref Proliferating T (label) 0.827 0.342 1.099 comparator_closer_sig 0.778 0.870 1.000 + s50k vs r16 own_ref Plasmablast (markers) 1.585 1.252 1.934 comparator_closer_sig 1.520 1.735 1.000 + s50k vs r16 own_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) -1.755 -2.742 -0.978 scratch_closer_sig -1.932 -1.597 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) -1.614 -2.138 -1.097 scratch_closer_sig -1.712 -1.542 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cycling T/NK 0.911 0.324 1.579 comparator_closer_sig 0.831 1.071 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) 0.827 0.342 1.099 comparator_closer_sig 0.778 0.870 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Plasmablast (markers) 0.938 0.650 1.199 comparator_closer_sig 0.872 1.030 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) -1.032 -1.757 -0.355 scratch_closer_sig -1.164 -0.768 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) -0.778 -1.586 -0.075 scratch_closer_sig -1.025 -0.637 0.878 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref DN2 / ABC B -0.447 -0.805 -0.069 scratch_closer_sig -0.506 -0.397 1.000 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) -2.605 -3.566 -1.874 scratch_closer_sig -2.781 -2.522 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 0.440 0.017 0.891 comparator_closer_sig 0.340 0.518 0.695 + s162k vs s50k own_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.622 0.083 1.206 comparator_closer_sig 0.554 0.773 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref Proliferating T (label) -0.259 -0.489 -0.035 scratch_closer_sig -0.295 -0.209 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref Plasmablast (label) -0.846 -1.168 -0.429 scratch_closer_sig -0.952 -0.823 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref Plasmablast (markers) -0.372 -0.493 -0.233 scratch_closer_sig -0.414 -0.354 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 0.628 0.396 0.950 comparator_closer_sig 0.560 0.766 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.260 0.543 2.129 comparator_closer_sig 1.122 1.422 1.000 + s162k vs s50k own_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) 1.585 1.083 2.159 comparator_closer_sig 1.501 1.730 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 0.440 0.017 0.891 comparator_closer_sig 0.340 0.518 0.695 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.622 0.083 1.206 comparator_closer_sig 0.554 0.773 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Proliferating T (label) -0.259 -0.489 -0.035 scratch_closer_sig -0.295 -0.209 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Plasmablast (label) -0.846 -1.168 -0.429 scratch_closer_sig -0.952 -0.823 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Plasmablast (markers) -0.372 -0.493 -0.233 scratch_closer_sig -0.414 -0.354 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 0.628 0.396 0.950 comparator_closer_sig 0.560 0.766 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.260 0.543 2.129 comparator_closer_sig 1.122 1.422 1.000 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref Granulocyte-like (LDG) 1.585 1.083 2.159 comparator_closer_sig 1.501 1.730 1.000 +== A: 13-state aggregate mean D: LODO and leave-one-state-out == + comparison variant estimator mean_D lo hi verdict loso_mean_D_min loso_mean_D_max loso_verdicts loso_state_flipping_verdict lodo_mean_D_min lodo_mean_D_max lodo_verdict_same_frac + s162k vs r16 own_ref pool 0.300 0.093 0.520 comparator_closer_sig 0.189 0.405 comparator_closer_sig;not_significant Cycling T/NK;Plasmablast (markers);Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 0.236 0.350 1.0 + s162k vs r16 own_ref gw 0.400 0.225 0.619 comparator_closer_sig 0.297 0.499 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r16 own_ref dm 0.436 0.249 0.625 comparator_closer_sig 0.323 0.538 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref pool -0.106 -0.243 0.112 not_significant -0.217 -0.018 not_significant -0.130 -0.060 1.0 + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref gw 0.004 -0.158 0.209 not_significant -0.097 0.089 not_significant NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref dm 0.049 -0.136 0.226 not_significant -0.066 0.138 not_significant NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r64 own_ref pool 0.405 0.171 0.618 comparator_closer_sig 0.288 0.537 comparator_closer_sig 0.326 0.465 1.0 + s162k vs r64 own_ref gw 0.471 0.294 0.672 comparator_closer_sig 0.364 0.607 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r64 own_ref dm 0.542 0.332 0.706 comparator_closer_sig 0.419 0.684 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref pool -0.044 -0.208 0.131 not_significant -0.157 0.031 not_significant -0.076 -0.018 1.0 + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref gw 0.008 -0.137 0.182 not_significant -0.099 0.088 not_significant NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs r64 comparator_depth_ref dm 0.089 -0.107 0.243 not_significant -0.032 0.176 not_significant NaN NaN NaN +s162k vs full108k own_ref pool 0.692 0.417 1.000 comparator_closer_sig 0.512 0.847 comparator_closer_sig 0.623 0.758 1.0 +s162k vs full108k own_ref gw 0.836 0.620 1.099 comparator_closer_sig 0.668 1.003 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN +s162k vs full108k own_ref dm 0.825 0.594 1.071 comparator_closer_sig 0.638 0.990 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref pool 0.245 0.030 0.539 comparator_closer_sig 0.065 0.347 comparator_closer_sig;not_significant Cycling T/NK;Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR);MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+);Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 0.194 0.294 1.0 +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref gw 0.388 0.189 0.623 comparator_closer_sig 0.216 0.502 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN +s162k vs full108k comparator_depth_ref dm 0.390 0.166 0.612 comparator_closer_sig 0.202 0.504 comparator_closer_sig;not_significant Cycling T/NK NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs xcal own_ref pool 1.082 0.920 1.289 comparator_closer_sig 0.894 1.250 comparator_closer_sig 1.041 1.125 1.0 + s162k vs xcal own_ref gw 1.124 0.962 1.346 comparator_closer_sig 0.936 1.328 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs xcal own_ref dm 1.164 0.975 1.371 comparator_closer_sig 0.965 1.325 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref pool 0.676 0.551 0.891 comparator_closer_sig 0.497 0.809 comparator_closer_sig 0.647 0.715 1.0 + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref gw 0.727 0.558 0.940 comparator_closer_sig 0.549 0.894 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs xcal comparator_depth_ref dm 0.777 0.579 0.985 comparator_closer_sig 0.576 0.892 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs full20k own_ref pool 0.866 0.616 1.104 comparator_closer_sig 0.703 0.991 comparator_closer_sig 0.803 0.919 1.0 + s162k vs full20k own_ref gw 0.950 0.757 1.171 comparator_closer_sig 0.796 1.094 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs full20k own_ref dm 0.921 0.712 1.123 comparator_closer_sig 0.753 1.065 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref pool 0.413 0.227 0.650 comparator_closer_sig 0.245 0.508 comparator_closer_sig 0.365 0.463 1.0 + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref gw 0.505 0.332 0.708 comparator_closer_sig 0.344 0.613 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs full20k comparator_depth_ref dm 0.478 0.271 0.667 comparator_closer_sig 0.304 0.578 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s50k vs r16 own_ref pool 0.011 -0.192 0.245 not_significant -0.120 0.159 not_significant -0.054 0.067 1.0 + s50k vs r16 own_ref gw 0.103 -0.076 0.342 not_significant -0.020 0.263 comparator_closer_sig;not_significant C1Q-high monocyte (reference);Granulocyte-like (LDG) NaN NaN NaN + s50k vs r16 own_ref dm 0.162 -0.033 0.366 not_significant 0.043 0.326 comparator_closer_sig;not_significant C1Q-high monocyte (reference);HSPC;Granulocyte-like (LDG) NaN NaN NaN + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref pool -0.386 -0.540 -0.173 scratch_closer_sig -0.497 -0.201 not_significant;scratch_closer_sig Granulocyte-like (LDG) -0.418 -0.353 1.0 + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref gw -0.305 -0.458 -0.079 scratch_closer_sig -0.408 -0.113 not_significant;scratch_closer_sig C1Q-high monocyte (reference);Granulocyte-like (LDG) NaN NaN NaN + s50k vs r16 comparator_depth_ref dm -0.235 -0.421 -0.039 scratch_closer_sig -0.344 -0.038 not_significant;scratch_closer_sig C1Q-high monocyte (reference);MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+);Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026);Granulocyte-like (LDG) NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs s50k own_ref pool 0.288 0.153 0.425 comparator_closer_sig 0.180 0.383 comparator_closer_sig 0.265 0.315 1.0 + s162k vs s50k own_ref gw 0.297 0.155 0.423 comparator_closer_sig 0.190 0.392 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs s50k own_ref dm 0.274 0.116 0.413 comparator_closer_sig 0.165 0.368 comparator_closer_sig;not_significant Granulocyte-like (LDG) NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref pool 0.280 0.156 0.423 comparator_closer_sig 0.171 0.374 comparator_closer_sig 0.254 0.312 1.0 + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref gw 0.309 0.167 0.429 comparator_closer_sig 0.203 0.405 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN + s162k vs s50k comparator_depth_ref dm 0.284 0.127 0.418 comparator_closer_sig 0.176 0.378 comparator_closer_sig NaN NaN NaN +[4s] +== loading observed cells (82 donors, 73 marker columns) == +observed cells 589,478 [9s] +observed loader reproduces screen native per-donor parent/state counts: mismatches = 0 +== DEP: detection-matched depth == + parent arm n_ref_genes t_det_median_gene t_det_q25 t_det_q75 t_det_pooled n_genes_capped_at_1 screen_thin_library gen_median_lib gen_mean_detected_of_73 + Monocyte zs 26 0.650 0.173 1.000 0.553 9 0.421 1187.0 8.900 + Monocyte xcal 26 0.506 0.280 0.956 0.561 6 0.799 2255.0 9.378 + Monocyte r16 26 0.154 0.081 0.345 0.226 0 0.398 1123.0 5.501 + Monocyte r64 26 0.153 0.051 0.347 0.213 1 0.376 1061.0 5.291 + Monocyte full20k 26 0.191 0.100 0.387 0.231 0 0.338 954.0 5.774 + Monocyte full108k 26 0.217 0.086 0.470 0.284 3 0.370 1043.0 6.525 + Monocyte s50k 26 0.231 0.121 0.491 0.302 0 1.000 13373.0 6.334 + Monocyte s100k 26 0.202 0.093 0.377 0.270 0 1.000 18579.0 5.907 + Monocyte s150k 26 0.194 0.094 0.404 0.281 0 1.000 20053.5 6.036 + Monocyte s162k 26 0.188 0.092 0.410 0.274 0 1.000 20300.5 5.942 + Monocyte own5 26 0.448 0.314 0.570 0.471 1 0.821 2317.0 8.167 + Monocyte own58 26 0.441 0.326 0.550 0.463 0 0.823 2321.0 8.172 + T cell+NK cell zs 20 1.000 0.544 1.000 0.940 11 0.419 787.0 6.041 + T cell+NK cell xcal 20 1.000 0.697 1.000 1.000 11 0.769 1444.0 6.886 + T cell+NK cell r16 20 0.662 0.420 1.000 0.769 7 0.576 1082.0 5.478 + T cell+NK cell r64 20 0.735 0.437 1.000 0.821 7 0.516 968.0 5.629 + T cell+NK cell full20k 20 0.719 0.536 1.000 0.819 6 0.570 1070.0 5.648 + T cell+NK cell full108k 20 0.893 0.643 1.000 1.000 10 0.546 1024.0 6.448 + T cell+NK cell s50k 20 0.930 0.582 1.000 1.000 9 1.000 13939.0 6.056 + T cell+NK cell s100k 20 0.777 0.565 1.000 0.920 8 1.000 19068.0 5.818 + T cell+NK cell s150k 20 0.816 0.579 1.000 0.975 8 1.000 20452.0 5.959 + T cell+NK cell s162k 20 0.812 0.579 1.000 0.975 8 1.000 20466.5 5.951 + T cell+NK cell own5 20 0.353 0.276 0.536 0.418 0 0.929 1744.0 4.164 + T cell+NK cell own58 20 0.628 0.504 0.701 0.602 0 1.000 1878.0 4.977 + T cell zs 17 1.000 0.679 1.000 1.000 10 0.441 874.0 5.062 + T cell xcal 17 1.000 0.652 1.000 1.000 10 0.779 1543.0 6.224 + T cell r16 17 0.805 0.497 1.000 0.795 6 0.601 1190.0 4.478 + T cell r64 17 0.920 0.502 1.000 0.830 7 0.539 1067.0 4.581 + T cell full20k 17 0.929 0.597 1.000 0.847 6 0.619 1226.0 4.696 + T cell full108k 17 1.000 0.634 1.000 1.000 9 0.578 1146.0 5.304 + T cell s50k 17 0.862 0.557 1.000 0.881 7 1.000 14115.0 4.687 + T cell s100k 17 0.824 0.543 1.000 0.816 7 1.000 19185.0 4.551 + T cell s150k 17 0.846 0.593 1.000 0.886 7 1.000 20614.0 4.721 + T cell s162k 17 0.861 0.600 1.000 0.912 8 1.000 20605.0 4.756 + T cell own5 17 0.540 0.455 0.606 0.525 0 0.914 1811.0 3.771 + T cell own58 17 0.730 0.591 0.889 0.692 4 0.996 1973.0 4.349 + ALL zs 25 0.749 0.455 1.000 0.912 9 0.495 973.0 6.831 + ALL xcal 25 1.000 0.456 1.000 1.000 13 0.828 1628.0 7.256 + ALL r16 25 0.563 0.232 1.000 0.526 8 0.577 1135.0 5.312 + ALL r64 25 0.556 0.189 1.000 0.512 8 0.515 1013.0 5.214 + ALL full20k 25 0.568 0.299 1.000 0.558 9 0.544 1070.0 5.535 + ALL full108k 25 0.787 0.327 1.000 0.697 10 0.536 1055.0 6.158 + ALL s50k 25 0.657 0.462 1.000 0.683 7 1.000 13891.0 5.798 + ALL s100k 25 0.549 0.361 1.000 0.623 7 1.000 19138.0 5.554 + ALL s150k 25 0.636 0.427 1.000 0.640 9 1.000 20524.0 5.613 + ALL s162k 25 0.564 0.377 1.000 0.639 7 1.000 20606.0 5.603 + ALL own5 25 0.357 0.272 0.520 0.445 0 0.908 1786.0 4.946 + ALL own58 25 0.560 0.365 0.718 0.568 0 0.957 1882.0 5.549 + B cell zs 15 0.280 0.133 0.574 0.331 2 0.575 1111.0 4.425 + B cell xcal 15 0.534 0.258 0.749 0.492 2 0.987 1907.0 4.981 + B cell r16 15 0.378 0.277 0.570 0.445 2 0.646 1248.0 4.659 + B cell r64 15 0.244 0.156 0.624 0.357 2 0.541 1046.0 4.268 + B cell full20k 15 0.418 0.346 0.679 0.500 2 0.596 1153.0 5.056 + B cell full108k 15 0.517 0.331 0.748 0.554 3 0.567 1096.0 5.315 + B cell s50k 15 0.352 0.176 0.517 0.355 2 1.000 14355.0 4.329 + B cell s100k 15 0.315 0.201 0.552 0.354 2 1.000 20102.0 4.313 + B cell s150k 15 0.283 0.194 0.545 0.335 0 1.000 21365.0 4.256 + B cell s162k 15 0.282 0.221 0.583 0.351 0 1.000 21460.0 4.328 + B cell own5 15 0.471 0.127 0.643 0.396 2 0.915 1769.0 4.405 + B cell own58 15 0.481 0.262 0.661 0.467 0 0.934 1805.0 4.767 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg zs 6 0.506 0.295 0.728 0.466 0 0.619 1400.0 2.184 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg xcal 6 0.710 0.577 0.877 0.687 1 0.919 2078.0 2.602 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg r16 6 0.561 0.482 0.826 0.578 0 0.691 1563.0 1.965 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg r64 6 0.558 0.448 0.824 0.573 0 0.622 1406.0 1.940 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg full20k 6 0.605 0.572 0.782 0.611 0 0.782 1770.0 2.143 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg full108k 6 0.734 0.579 0.960 0.776 2 0.690 1560.0 2.466 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg s50k 6 0.560 0.526 0.595 0.562 0 1.000 14040.5 1.831 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg s100k 6 0.511 0.471 0.590 0.538 0 1.000 18867.0 1.820 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg s150k 6 0.530 0.472 0.608 0.531 0 1.000 20509.5 1.842 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg s162k 6 0.549 0.497 0.619 0.553 0 1.000 20458.0 1.874 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg own5 6 0.606 0.532 0.639 0.587 0 0.949 2147.0 2.107 +Naive CD4 T cell+Memory CD4 T cell+Treg own58 6 0.725 0.623 0.750 0.687 0 1.000 2342.0 2.398 +per-state t_det for scratch s162k vs r16 / r64 / full108k / own library thin: +arm tdet_s50k tdet_s162k tdet_r16 tdet_r64 tdet_full108k tdet_xcal tdet_own58 thinlib_r16 thinlib_r64 thinlib_full108k thinlib_xcal thinlib_own58 +state +C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 0.231 0.188 0.154 0.153 0.217 0.506 0.441 0.398 0.376 0.370 0.799 0.823 +Cycling T/NK 0.930 0.812 0.662 0.735 0.893 1.000 0.628 0.576 0.516 0.546 0.769 1.000 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.862 0.861 0.805 0.920 1.000 1.000 0.730 0.601 0.539 0.578 0.779 0.996 +Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 0.231 0.188 0.154 0.153 0.217 0.506 0.441 0.398 0.376 0.370 0.799 0.823 +Cytotoxic CD4 T 0.560 0.549 0.561 0.558 0.734 0.710 0.725 0.691 0.622 0.690 0.919 1.000 +DN2 / ABC B 0.352 0.282 0.378 0.244 0.517 0.534 0.481 0.646 0.541 0.567 0.987 0.934 +Granulocyte-like (LDG) 0.655 0.557 0.609 0.539 0.795 0.911 0.557 0.577 0.515 0.536 0.828 0.957 +HSPC 0.653 0.551 0.563 0.522 0.787 0.822 0.554 0.577 0.515 0.536 0.828 0.957 +ISG-high T 0.848 0.898 0.642 0.677 0.933 1.000 0.756 0.601 0.539 0.578 0.779 0.996 +ISG-high monocyte (positive control) 0.205 0.169 0.128 0.114 0.179 0.431 0.441 0.398 0.376 0.370 0.799 0.823 +MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 0.334 0.357 0.193 0.168 0.280 0.510 0.409 0.398 0.376 0.370 0.799 0.823 +Plasmablast (markers) 0.657 0.564 0.563 0.556 0.787 1.000 0.560 0.577 0.515 0.536 0.828 0.957 +Platelet signal in monocytes (negative control) 0.236 0.205 0.182 0.159 0.259 0.537 0.467 0.398 0.376 0.370 0.799 0.823 +arm s50k s162k r16 r64 full108k full20k xcal own5 own58 +state +C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 0.120 0.094 0.044 0.070 0.105 0.097 0.080 0.587 0.553 +Cycling T/NK 0.063 0.054 0.143 0.141 0.279 0.313 0.404 0.484 0.681 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.089 0.057 0.080 0.095 0.153 0.154 0.203 0.232 0.375 +Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 0.161 0.080 0.121 0.139 0.164 0.219 0.339 0.441 0.340 +Cytotoxic CD4 T 1.077 1.173 1.534 1.725 1.589 1.811 2.259 1.275 1.521 +DN2 / ABC B 0.356 0.467 0.248 0.334 0.278 0.301 0.470 0.689 0.500 +Granulocyte-like (LDG) 0.057 0.023 0.010 0.016 0.010 0.013 0.057 0.113 0.124 +HSPC 1.063 1.523 1.657 2.991 2.720 1.380 1.676 0.931 0.452 +ISG-high T 0.824 0.669 1.559 1.498 1.244 1.114 1.235 0.663 0.753 +ISG-high monocyte (positive control) 2.012 2.230 4.425 5.354 3.667 3.183 2.307 0.881 0.996 +MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 0.278 0.172 0.212 0.216 0.322 0.440 0.897 0.930 1.009 +Plasmablast (markers) 0.370 0.538 0.798 0.645 1.087 1.064 0.314 0.389 0.519 +Platelet signal in monocytes (negative control) 0.439 0.291 0.367 0.383 0.491 0.699 0.259 0.892 0.895 +comparison s162k vs full108k s162k vs full20k s162k vs r16 s162k vs r64 s162k vs s50k s162k vs xcal s50k vs r16 +state +C1Q-high monocyte (reference) not_significant not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant not_significant not_significant scratch_closer_sig +Cycling T/NK comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant +Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant +Cytotoxic CD4 T scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant +DN2 / ABC B scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig not_significant scratch_closer_sig +Granulocyte-like (LDG) scratch_closer_sig not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig +HSPC scratch_closer_sig not_significant not_significant scratch_closer_sig not_significant not_significant not_significant +ISG-high T not_significant not_significant not_significant not_significant not_significant not_significant not_significant +MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant not_significant comparator_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig not_significant +Plasmablast (markers) not_significant not_significant comparator_closer_sig not_significant scratch_closer_sig scratch_closer_sig comparator_closer_sig + comparison mean_D_detmatched lo hi verdict n_comparator_closer n_scratch_closer_markers_only + s162k vs r16 -0.008 -0.202 0.199 not_significant 3 3 + s162k vs r64 0.121 -0.087 0.302 not_significant 3 3 +s162k vs full108k 0.275 0.016 0.514 comparator_closer_sig 4 4 + s162k vs xcal 0.680 0.506 0.870 comparator_closer_sig 5 2 + s162k vs full20k 0.486 0.247 0.687 comparator_closer_sig 4 2 + s50k vs r16 -0.251 -0.426 -0.026 scratch_closer_sig 2 3 + s162k vs s50k 0.242 0.096 0.359 comparator_closer_sig 4 2 +[33s] +== LAB: label-state marker support == + source T_cells prolif_T_labelled prolifT_frac_ge1_cycling_gene prolifT_frac_ge2_cycling_genes otherT_frac_ge2_cycling_genes frac_of_ge2cycling_T_labelled_prolif plasma_labelled plasma_frac_ge3_pb_markers plasma_frac_JCHAIN_or_MZB1 + observed native 298117 4793 0.613 0.450 0.002 0.757 8423 0.988 0.999 +observed thinned to r16 T depth 298117 4793 0.548 0.368 0.001 0.831 8423 0.959 0.997 + zs 43347 1369 0.116 0.084 0.001 0.833 678 0.906 0.996 + xcal 57613 595 0.329 0.254 0.001 0.834 1369 0.940 1.000 + r16 51586 654 0.080 0.057 0.000 0.755 2420 0.978 0.998 + r64 47130 786 0.080 0.052 0.000 0.732 1775 0.986 0.999 + full20k 49480 862 0.153 0.116 0.000 0.870 3117 0.993 0.999 + full108k 47593 862 0.164 0.103 0.000 0.873 3891 0.990 0.999 + s50k 55016 393 0.140 0.084 0.000 0.892 855 0.995 1.000 + s100k 53046 444 0.196 0.142 0.000 0.875 1187 0.997 1.000 + s150k 51762 469 0.104 0.066 0.000 0.912 1395 0.986 1.000 + s162k 55309 473 0.087 0.047 0.000 0.880 1537 0.994 0.999 + own5 71032 703 0.273 0.209 0.000 0.865 712 0.969 1.000 + own58 67850 846 0.435 0.353 0.001 0.887 1331 0.993 1.000 +== depth readouts from extracts (cross-4) == + arm parent median_lib_all_cells median_lib_parent mean_detected_of_73 umi_per_detected_marker det_HLA-DRA det_NKG7 det_GZMA det_CCR7 + zs Monocyte 973.0 1187.0 8.900 3.425 0.751 0.165 0.025 0.030 + zs T cell 973.0 874.0 5.062 4.927 0.072 0.517 0.407 0.309 + xcal Monocyte 1628.0 2255.0 9.378 3.222 0.796 0.341 0.049 0.033 + xcal T cell 1628.0 1543.0 6.224 6.192 0.138 0.643 0.583 0.198 + r16 Monocyte 1135.0 1123.0 5.501 2.667 0.640 0.143 0.012 0.006 + r16 T cell 1135.0 1190.0 4.478 4.180 0.059 0.508 0.429 0.177 + r64 Monocyte 1013.0 1061.0 5.291 2.536 0.604 0.114 0.010 0.004 + r64 T cell 1013.0 1067.0 4.581 4.181 0.066 0.496 0.423 0.140 + full20k Monocyte 1070.0 954.0 5.774 2.596 0.609 0.198 0.024 0.006 + full20k T cell 1070.0 1226.0 4.696 4.596 0.080 0.508 0.421 0.201 + full108k Monocyte 1055.0 1043.0 6.525 2.700 0.645 0.245 0.022 0.005 + full108k T cell 1055.0 1146.0 5.304 4.545 0.086 0.550 0.439 0.173 + s50k Monocyte 13891.0 13373.0 6.334 3.089 0.655 0.128 0.006 0.001 + s50k T cell 13891.0 14115.0 4.687 5.262 0.077 0.486 0.423 0.168 + s100k Monocyte 19138.0 18579.0 5.907 2.908 0.659 0.146 0.009 0.001 + s100k T cell 19138.0 19185.0 4.551 4.990 0.086 0.489 0.412 0.164 + s150k Monocyte 20524.0 20053.5 6.036 2.883 0.676 0.155 0.010 0.001 + s150k T cell 20524.0 20614.0 4.721 4.935 0.083 0.500 0.430 0.153 + s162k Monocyte 20606.0 20300.5 5.942 2.789 0.651 0.153 0.009 0.001 + s162k T cell 20606.0 20605.0 4.756 4.948 0.077 0.500 0.431 0.157 + own5 Monocyte 1786.0 2317.0 8.167 3.229 0.622 0.310 0.025 0.025 + own5 T cell 1786.0 1811.0 3.771 4.345 0.090 0.324 0.264 0.363 + own58 Monocyte 1882.0 2321.0 8.172 3.097 0.651 0.302 0.038 0.029 + own58 T cell 1882.0 1973.0 4.349 4.461 0.096 0.370 0.315 0.390 +observed native Monocyte 1967.0 2821.0 12.004 4.214 0.744 0.413 0.039 0.034 +observed native T cell 1967.0 1981.0 5.655 4.084 0.123 0.363 0.323 0.466 +== CON: contrasts == + arm variant n_pairs kept binom_p_ge_kept_at_0.5 robust_kept_boot_P>=0.95 robust_reversed_boot_P<=0.05 kept_and_lodo_stable median_ratio_kept median_ratio_all21_signed mean_ratio_all21_signed + zs own_ref 21 15 0.039 8 2 12 0.092 0.052 -0.056 + xcal own_ref 21 19 0.000 13 2 15 0.229 0.147 0.312 + r16 own_ref 21 11 0.500 9 3 9 0.137 0.005 0.061 + r64 own_ref 21 10 0.668 8 4 8 0.131 -0.000 0.037 + full20k own_ref 21 15 0.039 9 2 10 0.290 0.170 0.196 +full108k own_ref 21 16 0.013 10 3 12 0.150 0.106 -0.022 + s50k own_ref 21 15 0.039 12 3 14 0.074 0.049 -0.106 + s50k r16_depth_ref 21 15 0.039 12 3 14 0.116 0.076 -0.067 + s50k r64_depth_ref 21 15 0.039 12 3 14 0.118 0.083 -0.083 + s50k full108k_depth_ref 21 15 0.039 12 3 14 0.117 0.078 -0.083 + s100k own_ref 21 15 0.039 8 1 13 0.036 0.024 -0.081 + s100k r16_depth_ref 21 15 0.039 8 1 13 0.055 0.027 -0.041 + s100k r64_depth_ref 21 15 0.039 8 1 13 0.055 0.028 -0.051 + s100k full108k_depth_ref 21 15 0.039 8 1 13 0.055 0.028 -0.051 + s150k own_ref 21 16 0.013 11 3 14 0.034 0.018 -0.100 + s150k r16_depth_ref 21 16 0.013 11 3 14 0.048 0.032 -0.065 + s150k r64_depth_ref 21 16 0.013 11 3 14 0.046 0.029 -0.079 + s150k full108k_depth_ref 21 16 0.013 11 3 14 0.047 0.030 -0.080 + s162k own_ref 21 14 0.095 10 3 13 0.042 0.024 -0.134 + s162k r16_depth_ref 21 14 0.095 10 3 13 0.067 0.029 -0.099 + s162k r64_depth_ref 21 14 0.095 10 3 13 0.062 0.029 -0.120 + s162k full108k_depth_ref 21 14 0.095 10 3 13 0.063 0.030 -0.121 + own5 own_ref 21 17 0.004 10 1 15 0.245 0.181 0.214 + own58 own_ref 21 19 0.000 15 2 17 0.344 0.312 0.369 +comparator pairs_kept_by_both scratch_median_ratio_on_both scratch_r16depth_median_ratio_on_both comparator_median_ratio_on_both pairs_scratch_less_compressed + r16 10 0.059 0.107 0.138 0 + r64 10 0.059 0.107 0.131 1 + full108k 13 0.042 0.072 0.255 2 + full20k 12 0.049 0.083 0.288 2 + xcal 14 0.042 0.067 0.401 1 + own58 14 0.042 0.067 0.307 1 +[35s] +== SP: Spearman over donors == +arm zs xcal r16 r64 full20k full108k s50k s100k s150k s162k own5 own58 +state +C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 0.149 0.112 0.018 0.055 0.084 0.018 0.206 0.234 0.276 0.100 0.152 0.217 +Cycling T/NK 0.119 0.163 -0.128 -0.160 0.096 -0.023 0.001 0.013 0.012 -0.054 0.122 0.332 +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 0.034 0.134 -0.082 0.084 0.232 0.038 -0.049 0.054 0.003 0.163 0.116 0.173 +Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 0.191 0.417 0.034 0.097 0.138 0.318 0.274 0.223 0.062 0.072 0.165 0.128 +Cytotoxic CD4 T 0.375 0.490 0.541 0.581 0.569 0.616 0.393 0.426 0.481 0.404 0.541 0.692 +DN2 / ABC B 0.105 -0.063 0.109 0.315 0.059 0.390 0.077 0.154 0.059 0.105 0.047 0.423 +Granulocyte-like (LDG) 0.417 0.308 -0.063 0.143 0.003 0.135 0.445 0.437 0.186 0.183 0.354 0.378 +HSPC -0.006 0.133 0.068 0.096 0.157 0.070 0.189 0.103 0.293 0.275 -0.001 0.049 +ISG-high T 0.432 0.552 0.533 0.514 0.443 0.472 0.248 0.379 0.343 0.383 0.519 0.699 +MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 0.526 0.647 0.400 0.419 0.543 0.505 0.511 0.510 0.409 0.523 0.439 0.571 +Plasmablast (label) 0.332 0.413 0.356 0.375 0.330 0.228 0.361 0.292 0.286 0.315 0.125 0.195 +Plasmablast (markers) 0.376 0.489 0.478 0.439 0.435 0.347 0.429 0.485 0.492 0.507 0.370 0.433 +Proliferating T (label) -0.019 0.081 0.068 0.138 0.074 0.036 -0.088 0.076 0.034 0.093 0.222 0.386 +mean rho over 13 states: zs 0.233, xcal 0.298, r16 0.179, r64 0.238, full20k 0.243, full108k 0.242, s50k 0.231, s100k 0.261, s150k 0.226, s162k 0.236, own5 0.244, own58 0.360 +best arm per state: C1Q-high monocyte =s150k; Cycling T/NK=own58; Cycling activated =full20k; Cycling monocyte (=xcal; Cytotoxic CD4 T=own58; DN2 / ABC B=own58; Granulocyte-like (=s50k; HSPC=s150k; ISG-high T=own58; MS1 monocyte (IL1R=xcal; Plasmablast (label=xcal; Plasmablast (marke=s162k; Proliferating T (l=own58 + n_sig median_ci_width mean_diff +comparison +s162k vs full108k 2 0.434 -0.006 +s162k vs own58 5 0.498 -0.124 +s162k vs r16 0 0.450 0.057 +s162k vs r64 0 0.454 -0.002 +s162k vs xcal 2 0.454 -0.062 + comparison state diff lo hi ci_width verdict +s162k vs full108k DN2 / ABC B -0.286 -0.550 -0.013 0.537 comparator_higher_sig +s162k vs full108k Cytotoxic CD4 T -0.211 -0.422 -0.001 0.421 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs xcal Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) -0.345 -0.615 -0.061 0.555 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs xcal ISG-high T -0.169 -0.348 -0.012 0.335 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs own58 Cycling T/NK -0.386 -0.709 -0.052 0.657 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs own58 Proliferating T (label) -0.293 -0.563 -0.022 0.541 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs own58 ISG-high T -0.315 -0.537 -0.089 0.448 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs own58 DN2 / ABC B -0.318 -0.570 -0.072 0.498 comparator_higher_sig + s162k vs own58 Cytotoxic CD4 T -0.288 -0.506 -0.068 0.438 comparator_higher_sig +== FOLD: own-cohort vs cross-cohort arms on each within-cohort fold's donors == +arm own5 own58 s162k r16 r64 full108k xcal +state fold +C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 0 1.105 1.038 0.074 0.051 0.062 0.090 0.064 + 1 0.114 0.408 0.063 0.033 0.078 0.102 0.092 + 2 0.738 0.371 0.053 0.026 0.063 0.115 0.048 + 3 0.014 0.267 0.042 0.024 0.011 0.058 0.073 + 4 0.140 0.757 0.175 0.052 0.141 0.128 0.105 +Cycling T/NK 0 1.187 0.906 0.111 0.451 0.460 0.553 1.025 + 1 0.071 0.657 0.063 0.161 0.174 0.315 0.420 + 2 0.367 0.336 0.036 0.074 0.121 0.270 0.307 + 3 0.129 0.481 0.047 0.118 0.154 0.349 0.450 + 4 0.312 0.509 0.025 0.140 0.132 0.420 0.444 +Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 0 0.124 0.086 0.019 0.048 0.040 0.128 0.260 + 1 0.011 0.169 0.029 0.143 0.104 0.159 0.234 + 2 1.301 0.526 0.013 0.040 0.064 0.150 0.317 + 3 0.016 0.132 0.044 0.072 0.067 0.077 0.247 + 4 0.030 0.122 0.023 0.070 0.132 0.084 0.201 +MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 0 0.159 0.202 0.099 0.101 0.106 0.211 0.635 + 1 0.324 0.713 0.208 0.109 0.118 0.274 0.875 + 2 2.869 1.087 0.034 0.175 0.102 0.301 0.612 + 3 0.091 1.214 0.124 0.240 0.257 0.693 1.368 + 4 0.011 0.841 0.048 0.072 0.083 0.167 0.612 diff --git a/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_confound_within_run.log b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_confound_within_run.log new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7549e6b16b404d9b24f26713912cb17b56d61fd3 --- /dev/null +++ b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_confound_within_run.log @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +[ 0.0s] donors 17 {'adult_sepsis': np.int64(9), 'ped_sepsis': np.int64(3), 'adult_HC': np.int64(2), 'adult_ICU_ctrl': np.int64(1), 'ped_HC': np.int64(1), 'ped_ICU_ctrl': np.int64(1)} rare states 13 +[ 0.1s] wrote verify_confound_within_repro.csv (240, 36) +[ 0.1s] max |diff| vs published: {'D': 4.883762290130989e-07, 'D_ci_lo': 4.962792746754374e-07, 'D_ci_hi': 4.992577684603816e-07, 'D_bc_ci_lo': 4.913921749505334e-07, 'D_bc_ci_hi': 4.897366950862292e-07} +[ 0.1s] state-level verdict counts (main, 13 rare): {'not significant': 42, 'scratch closer': 7, 'pretrained closer': 3} BC: {'not significant': 32, 'scratch closer': 11, 'pretrained closer': 9} +[ 0.1s] wrote verify_confound_within_stateset.csv (49, 11) +[ 1.0s] wrote verify_confound_within_lodo.csv (112, 16) +[ 1.0s] wrote verify_confound_within_donormean.csv (112, 13) +[ 1.0s] wrote verify_confound_within_concentration.csv (15, 28) +[ 1.0s] loading observed cells via tools/sepsis_states.observed() ... +[ 4.6s] observed cells (131629, 73) +[ 6.3s] V0 replay: per-donor count rows not reproduced (arm x state): 0 of 120 +[ 10.9s] wrote verify_confound_within_depth_arms.csv (520, 14) +[ 11.1s] wrote verify_confound_within_depth.csv (576, 16) +[ 11.1s] V0_published main state verdicts: {'not significant': 42, 'scratch closer': 7, 'pretrained closer': 3} | aggregate: [('5 pairs: scratch vs Lo', 0.224, -0.078, 0.406), ('58 pairs: scratch vs L', 0.019, -0.35, 0.255), ('58 pairs: scratch vs f', 0.137, -0.138, 0.406), ('58 pairs + recipes: sc', -0.089, -0.379, 0.178), ('ref: scratch 5 pairs v', -0.239, -0.515, 0.005), ('ref: scratch 58 pairs ', -0.35, -0.66, -0.128), ('ref: scratch 58 + reci', -0.457, -0.729, -0.238)] +[ 11.1s] V0_reseed main state verdicts: {'not significant': 41, 'scratch closer': 7, 'pretrained closer': 4} | aggregate: [('5 pairs: scratch vs Lo', 0.224, -0.079, 0.405), ('58 pairs: scratch vs L', 0.023, -0.349, 0.255), ('58 pairs: scratch vs f', 0.132, -0.14, 0.401), ('58 pairs + recipes: sc', -0.092, -0.37, 0.173), ('ref: scratch 5 pairs v', -0.238, -0.515, 0.011), ('ref: scratch 58 pairs ', -0.351, -0.667, -0.112), ('ref: scratch 58 + reci', -0.452, -0.729, -0.232)] +[ 11.1s] V1_lib_trained main state verdicts: {'not significant': 41, 'scratch closer': 8, 'pretrained closer': 3} | aggregate: [('5 pairs: scratch vs Lo', 0.096, -0.226, 0.345), ('58 pairs: scratch vs L', 0.02, -0.363, 0.257), ('58 pairs: scratch vs f', 0.16, -0.127, 0.427), ('58 pairs + recipes: sc', -0.092, -0.379, 0.177)] +[ 11.1s] V1_lib_all main state verdicts: {'not significant': 42, 'scratch closer': 8, 'pretrained closer': 2} | aggregate: [('5 pairs: scratch vs Lo', -0.035, -0.465, 0.236), ('58 pairs: scratch vs L', -0.105, -0.471, 0.234), ('58 pairs: scratch vs f', 0.033, -0.282, 0.362), ('58 pairs + recipes: sc', -0.127, -0.467, 0.177), ('ref: scratch 5 pairs v', -0.11, -0.435, 0.169), ('ref: scratch 58 pairs ', -0.293, -0.645, -0.003), ('ref: scratch 58 + reci', -0.428, -0.729, -0.17)] +[ 11.1s] V2_msum_trained main state verdicts: {'not significant': 39, 'scratch closer': 7, 'pretrained closer': 6} | aggregate: [('5 pairs: scratch vs Lo', 0.262, -0.076, 0.49), ('58 pairs: scratch vs L', -0.011, -0.381, 0.332), ('58 pairs: scratch vs f', 0.057, -0.204, 0.373), ('58 pairs + recipes: sc', -0.048, -0.359, 0.253)] +[ 11.1s] V2_msum_all main state verdicts: {'not significant': 39, 'scratch closer': 7, 'pretrained closer': 6} | aggregate: [('5 pairs: scratch vs Lo', 0.259, -0.088, 0.494), ('58 pairs: scratch vs L', -0.02, -0.395, 0.319), ('58 pairs: scratch vs f', 0.022, -0.251, 0.357), ('58 pairs + recipes: sc', -0.037, -0.34, 0.259), ('ref: scratch 5 pairs v', -0.383, -0.792, -0.093), ('ref: scratch 58 pairs ', -0.578, -0.948, -0.308), ('ref: scratch 58 + reci', -0.695, -1.057, -0.424)] +[ 15.1s] wrote verify_confound_within_composition_arms.csv (128, 10) +[ 15.1s] wrote verify_confound_within_composition.csv (119, 15) +[ 15.1s] composition aggregate: + comparison std_ratio_scratch std_ratio_pretrained D_std D_std_ci_lo D_std_ci_hi verdict_std verdict_std_bc n_states_pretrained_closer n_states_scratch_closer +0 5 pairs: scratch vs LoRA 1.522 1.526 -0.004 -0.231 0.170 not significant not significant 1 4 +1 58 pairs: scratch vs LoRA 1.403 1.426 -0.024 -0.310 0.170 not significant not significant 2 1 +2 58 pairs: scratch vs full FT 1.403 1.270 0.133 -0.074 0.321 not significant not significant 2 2 +3 58 pairs + recipes: scratch vs LoRA 1.267 1.473 -0.206 -0.438 0.058 not significant not significant 1 3 +4 ref: scratch 5 pairs vs zero-shot 1.522 1.842 -0.321 -0.628 -0.131 scratch closer scratch closer 1 2 +5 ref: scratch 58 pairs vs zero-shot 1.403 1.842 -0.440 -0.754 -0.216 scratch closer scratch closer 1 3 +6 ref: scratch 58 + recipes vs zero-shot 1.267 1.842 -0.575 -0.881 -0.337 scratch closer scratch closer 0 3 +[ 15.6s] wrote verify_confound_within_stateset_by_scheme.csv (147, 10) +[ 15.6s] state-set x scheme (main comparisons): +scheme V0_published V0_reseed V1_lib_all V1_lib_trained V2_msum_all V2_msum_trained composition_std +state_set comparison +11 marker states (no label states) 5 pairs: scratch vs LoRA +0.410[-0.00,+0.65]b +0.410[-0.00,+0.65]b +0.104[-0.45,+0.44] +0.258[-0.17,+0.58] +0.451[-0.00,+0.75]b +0.454[+0.01,+0.75]*b +0.099[-0.21,+0.34] + 58 pairs + recipes: scratch vs LoRA +0.055[-0.30,+0.31] +0.051[-0.29,+0.31] +0.010[-0.39,+0.30] +0.051[-0.31,+0.31] +0.116[-0.25,+0.39] +0.103[-0.27,+0.39] -0.100[-0.41,+0.14] + 58 pairs: scratch vs LoRA +0.194[-0.23,+0.42] +0.198[-0.23,+0.43] +0.047[-0.36,+0.37] +0.195[-0.23,+0.41] +0.148[-0.27,+0.45] +0.158[-0.26,+0.47] +0.147[-0.19,+0.31] + 58 pairs: scratch vs full FT +0.354[+0.02,+0.62]*b +0.348[+0.02,+0.61]*b +0.231[-0.14,+0.57] +0.381[+0.04,+0.66]*b +0.218[-0.12,+0.55] +0.259[-0.06,+0.57] +0.344[+0.06,+0.53]*b +13 rare 5 pairs: scratch vs LoRA +0.224[-0.08,+0.41]b +0.224[-0.08,+0.40]b -0.035[-0.47,+0.24] +0.096[-0.23,+0.34] +0.259[-0.09,+0.49] +0.262[-0.08,+0.49] -0.004[-0.23,+0.17] + 58 pairs + recipes: scratch vs LoRA -0.089[-0.38,+0.18] -0.092[-0.37,+0.17] -0.127[-0.47,+0.18] -0.092[-0.38,+0.18] -0.037[-0.34,+0.26] -0.048[-0.36,+0.25] -0.206[-0.44,+0.06] + 58 pairs: scratch vs LoRA +0.019[-0.35,+0.25] +0.023[-0.35,+0.25] -0.105[-0.47,+0.23] +0.020[-0.36,+0.26] -0.020[-0.39,+0.32] -0.011[-0.38,+0.33] -0.024[-0.31,+0.17] + 58 pairs: scratch vs full FT +0.137[-0.14,+0.41] +0.132[-0.14,+0.40] +0.033[-0.28,+0.36] +0.160[-0.13,+0.43] +0.022[-0.25,+0.36] +0.057[-0.20,+0.37] +0.133[-0.07,+0.32] +T/NK states (5) 5 pairs: scratch vs LoRA +0.281[-0.22,+0.73] +0.281[-0.22,+0.73] +0.252[-0.74,+0.89] +0.218[-0.27,+0.63] +0.295[-0.23,+0.76] +0.307[-0.22,+0.78] +0.166[-0.26,+0.50] + 58 pairs + recipes: scratch vs LoRA +0.483[+0.01,+0.91]*b +0.476[+0.02,+0.90]*b +0.417[-0.21,+0.89] +0.476[+0.02,+0.90]*b +0.493[+0.08,+0.93]*b +0.487[+0.08,+0.92]*b +0.140[-0.20,+0.50] + 58 pairs: scratch vs LoRA +0.481[+0.07,+0.88]*b +0.501[+0.08,+0.90]*b +0.601[+0.03,+1.08]*b +0.514[+0.12,+0.90]*b +0.640[+0.16,+1.11]*b +0.643[+0.18,+1.11]*b +0.420[+0.08,+0.68]*b + 58 pairs: scratch vs full FT +0.455[+0.01,+1.02]*b +0.452[+0.01,+1.02]*b +0.545[-0.17,+1.19] +0.464[+0.02,+1.01]*b +0.435[-0.07,+1.05] +0.471[-0.04,+1.07] +0.446[+0.01,+0.77]*b +[ 15.6s] wrote verify_confound_within_arm_mean_abslog2.csv (56, 5) +[ 15.6s] arm mean |log2| by scheme: +scheme V0_published V0_reseed V1_lib_all V1_lib_trained V2_msum_all V2_msum_trained composition_std +arm +lora_n5__raw 1.300 1.300 1.686 1.473 1.305 1.299 1.526 +lora_recipe__raw 1.395 1.402 1.460 1.409 1.289 1.283 1.473 +real_full__raw 1.275 1.278 1.435 1.278 1.347 1.322 1.270 +real_lora__raw 1.393 1.388 1.573 1.418 1.389 1.390 1.426 +scratch_full__raw 1.412 1.410 1.468 1.438 1.369 1.379 1.403 +scratch_n5__raw 1.524 1.524 1.651 1.569 1.564 1.560 1.522 +scratch_recipe__raw 1.306 1.310 1.333 1.317 1.252 1.235 1.267 +zs__raw 1.763 1.762 1.761 1.878 1.947 1.966 1.842 +[ 15.7s] wrote verify_confound_within_labelcheck.csv (12, 40) +[ 15.7s] eligible (state, contrast) pairs: 25 +[ 16.2s] wrote verify_confound_within_contrasts.csv (351, 31) +[ 16.2s] contrast summary: + arm n_eligible kept reversed_strong_abs reversed_weak_abs flat reversed_strong_rel reversed_weak_rel kept_lodo_min kept_lodo_max kept_by_contrast kept_diff_pretrained_minus_scratch discordant_pretrained_only_kept discordant_scratch_only_kept exact_sign_test_p kept_diff_lodo_min kept_diff_lodo_max + zs__raw 25 21.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 12.0 22.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:6/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:8/8; all sepsis vs all controls:7/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + lora_n5__raw 25 23.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 14.0 23.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:7/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:8/8; all sepsis vs all controls:8/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + scratch_n5__raw 25 17.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 10.0 19.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:6/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:7/8; all sepsis vs all controls:4/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + real_lora__raw 25 20.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 13.0 20.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:7/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:7/8; all sepsis vs all controls:6/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + real_full__raw 25 20.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 14.0 21.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:7/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:6/8; all sepsis vs all controls:7/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + scratch_full__raw 25 19.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 14.0 20.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:8/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:6/8; all sepsis vs all controls:5/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + lora_recipe__raw 25 23.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 15.0 23.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:8/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:8/8; all sepsis vs all controls:7/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + scratch_recipe__raw 25 16.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 10.0 19.0 adult sepsis vs adult HC:5/9; paediatric sepsis vs paediatric HC:7/8; all sepsis vs all controls:4/8 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN + PAIR 5 pairs: scratch vs LoRA 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 6.0 8.0 2.0 0.109375 3.0 7.0 + PAIR 58 pairs: scratch vs LoRA 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.000000 -1.0 2.0 + PAIR 58 pairs: scratch vs full FT 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.000000 0.0 3.0 + PAIR 58 pairs + recipes: scratch vs LoRA 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 7.0 7.0 0.0 0.015625 4.0 8.0 + PAIR ref: scratch 5 pairs vs zero-shot 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 4.0 7.0 3.0 0.343750 -1.0 6.0 + PAIR ref: scratch 58 pairs vs zero-shot 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 2.0 5.0 3.0 0.726562 -2.0 3.0 +PAIR ref: scratch 58 + recipes vs zero-shot 25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 5.0 7.0 2.0 0.179688 2.0 6.0 +[ 16.2s] observed-direction flips per left-out donor (arm lora_n5): + left_out group obs_direction_flips undefined + Abd-PS19 ped_sepsis 0 0 + Abd-PS23 ped_sepsis 0 0 + Abd-S123 adult_sepsis 0 0 + Abd-S39 adult_sepsis 0 0 + Abd-S47 adult_sepsis 0 0 + Abd-S66 adult_sepsis 0 0 + HC01 adult_HC 0 0 + HC07 adult_HC 1 0 + IC23 adult_ICU_ctrl 0 0 + PHC03 ped_HC 0 8 + PIC04 ped_ICU_ctrl 0 0 + Res-PS25 ped_sepsis 0 0 + Res-S139 adult_sepsis 1 0 + Res-S26 adult_sepsis 0 0 + Res-S77 adult_sepsis 0 0 +Skin-S140 adult_sepsis 0 0 + Uri-S147 adult_sepsis 0 0 +[ 21.9s] wrote verify_confound_within_spearman.csv (124, 22) +[ 22.1s] wrote verify_confound_within_folds.csv (1003, 19) +[ 22.1s] done diff --git a/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_recompute_cross_extra_report.txt b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_recompute_cross_extra_report.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8df7605a61dcf43c2291a1fa05c3ddd5ec4d161f --- /dev/null +++ b/paper-releases/pbisc-diffusion/updates/20261005T142225Z-rare-states-scratch-vs-pretrained/diffusion/dataset/server_1/model8/plans/rare_states_screen_20261004/out/scratch_vs_lora_20261005/verify_recompute_cross_extra_report.txt @@ -0,0 +1,59 @@ +=== cross-7: medians over each arm's own kept set vs over the pairs kept by both === +scratch_variant comparator n_kept_scratch n_kept_comp n_kept_both median_kept_scratch median_kept_comp ratio_comp_over_scratch ratio_ci_lo ratio_ci_hi frac_boot_ratio_gt1 median_bothkept_scratch median_bothkept_comp ratio_bothkept_comp_over_scratch ratio_bothkept_ci_lo ratio_bothkept_ci_hi frac_boot_bothkept_ratio_gt1 n_boot_finite + own r16 14 11 10 0.042 0.137 3.292 1.224 11.763 0.988 0.059 0.138 2.317 1.077 5.391 0.980 2000 + own r64 14 10 10 0.042 0.131 3.150 0.999 9.664 0.974 0.059 0.131 2.204 0.866 4.899 0.956 2000 + own full20k 14 15 12 0.042 0.290 6.967 2.515 13.280 0.999 0.049 0.288 5.866 2.327 9.492 0.998 2000 + own full108k 14 16 13 0.042 0.150 3.592 1.878 9.433 0.997 0.042 0.255 6.101 2.152 8.904 0.999 2000 + own xcal 14 19 14 0.042 0.229 5.500 3.262 13.398 1.000 0.042 0.401 9.645 3.328 12.086 1.000 2000 + own zs 14 15 13 0.042 0.092 2.206 0.892 5.832 0.958 0.041 0.092 2.216 0.976 5.675 0.966 2000 + own own58 14 19 14 0.042 0.344 8.265 3.153 13.745 1.000 0.042 0.307 7.379 3.021 12.716 1.000 2000 + depth_r16 r16 14 11 10 0.067 0.137 2.042 0.760 7.114 0.926 0.107 0.138 1.286 0.661 3.225 0.834 2000 + depth_r16 r64 14 10 10 0.067 0.131 1.954 0.584 6.220 0.814 0.107 0.131 1.224 0.519 3.039 0.692 2000 + depth_r16 full20k 14 15 12 0.067 0.290 4.322 1.521 8.355 0.993 0.083 0.288 3.466 1.308 5.572 0.994 2000 + depth_r16 full108k 14 16 13 0.067 0.150 2.229 1.145 5.882 0.984 0.072 0.255 3.553 1.182 5.190 0.990 2000 + depth_r16 xcal 14 19 14 0.067 0.229 3.412 2.000 8.928 0.997 0.067 0.401 5.984 2.102 8.202 1.000 2000 + depth_r16 zs 14 15 13 0.067 0.092 1.368 0.552 3.678 0.688 0.062 0.092 1.472 0.627 3.778 0.716 2000 + depth_r16 own58 14 19 14 0.067 0.344 5.128 1.837 9.303 0.995 0.067 0.307 4.578 1.780 8.581 0.997 2000 + pair s162k_frac r16_frac r64_frac full108k_frac full20k_frac xcal_frac own58_frac s162k_at_r16depth_frac + C1Q-high monocyte (reference)|adult 0.041 -0.042 0.001 -0.043 -0.024 0.035 0.312 0.046 + C1Q-high monocyte (reference)|all 0.012 -0.013 -0.011 0.021 -0.004 0.019 0.302 0.013 +C1Q-high monocyte (reference)|paediatric -0.014 -0.006 -0.035 0.106 -0.016 0.015 0.344 -0.016 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026)|adult 0.057 0.139 0.179 0.279 0.341 0.417 0.298 0.120 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026)|all 0.034 0.105 0.069 0.160 0.193 0.229 0.160 0.062 + Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026)|paediatric 0.017 0.081 -0.003 0.054 0.075 0.116 0.142 0.029 + Cytotoxic CD4 T|adult -1.756 -0.723 -0.494 -1.935 0.383 1.255 2.481 -2.095 + Cytotoxic CD4 T|all -1.190 -0.815 -1.069 -2.021 -0.448 0.048 0.982 -1.350 + Granulocyte-like (LDG)|adult 0.021 -0.026 -0.000 0.005 0.014 0.103 0.038 0.027 + Granulocyte-like (LDG)|all 0.024 -0.019 -0.022 0.001 0.003 0.147 0.181 0.028 + Granulocyte-like (LDG)|paediatric -0.006 0.005 -0.036 0.010 0.005 0.083 0.136 -0.012 + ISG-high T|adult 0.670 2.065 2.405 2.342 1.651 2.080 0.265 1.018 + ISG-high T|all -0.243 -0.153 -0.034 0.139 0.290 0.101 0.559 -0.224 + ISG-high T|paediatric 0.198 0.568 0.596 0.624 0.737 0.820 0.496 0.220 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+)|adult 0.062 0.099 0.084 0.255 0.243 0.505 0.621 0.095 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+)|all 0.034 0.137 0.083 0.330 0.334 0.591 0.826 0.051 + MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+)|paediatric 0.042 0.070 0.050 0.120 0.170 0.386 0.666 0.072 + Plasmablast (label)|adult 0.728 1.762 1.122 2.940 2.670 1.219 0.842 0.728 + Plasmablast (markers)|adult 0.412 1.290 1.014 2.294 2.162 0.849 0.544 0.559 + Plasmablast (markers)|paediatric -1.667 -2.162 -2.353 -4.263 -3.206 -1.284 -1.798 -1.173 + Proliferating T (label)|all -0.286 -1.081 -0.767 -1.890 -1.466 -1.184 -0.656 -0.286 + +=== cross-4: depth-correction factor ranges === +reference depth_r16 depth_r64 depth_full20k depth_full108k is_label +state +C1Q-high monocyte (reference) 1.158 1.171 1.201 1.179 False +Cycling T/NK 1.317 1.423 1.311 1.363 False +Cycling activated T (CD38/HLA-DR) 1.444 1.571 1.421 1.488 False +Cycling monocyte (Ye 2026) 1.818 1.874 2.042 1.919 False +Cytotoxic CD4 T 1.141 1.215 1.085 1.144 False +DN2 / ABC B 1.496 1.743 1.586 1.675 False +Granulocyte-like (LDG) 1.803 2.089 1.927 1.982 False +HSPC 1.121 1.163 1.142 1.144 False +ISG-high T 1.671 1.904 1.632 1.772 False +ISG-high monocyte (positive control) 2.014 2.117 2.319 2.153 False +MS1 monocyte (IL1R2+) 1.564 1.617 1.736 1.640 False +Plasmablast (label) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 True +Plasmablast (markers) 1.566 1.707 1.639 1.657 False +Platelet signal in monocytes (negative control) 2.114 2.226 2.460 2.240 False +Proliferating T (label) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 True +rare marker states: factor range 1.085 - 2.089 | r16 only: 1.121 - 1.818 +controls: factor range 2.014 - 2.46