#!/usr/bin/env bash # Arm A — the behavioural headline run, guard=scoped, on the OpenRouter backbone in .env. # # BACKBONE-AGNOSTIC. Everything model-specific lives in .env: OPENROUTER_MODEL picks the # backbone, SCT_DATASET picks the results// it writes to, OPENROUTER_PROVIDER pins the # upstream so the price is the price you costed, and OPENROUTER_MAX_TOKENS / # OPENROUTER_REASONING_EFFORT keep a reasoning backbone from spending its whole completion # budget thinking and truncating its structured output. Switch backbone = edit .env and # RESTART scripts/serve.sh, because the attacker origin binds SCT_DATASET at startup. # # THE DESIGN. Full control (a): the held target rotates across EVERY option of every scenario, # not a 3-value subset, so ScenarioLeak averages over the whole label set and the k x k confusion # matrix is complete. All five plant routes per scenario, `REPS` sessions per (target, plant) # cell. Cold is denser for the scenarios whose cold arm is a genuine prior over options rather # than a near-deterministic fallback, because those need a precise P_cold rather than a token one. # # ~1,600 sessions at reps=3. Budget roughly $22 and 40+ hours serial. Run it under tmux/screen. # # BALANCE GUARD. The run of 2026-08-13 died on HTTP 402 after 57 sessions and kept going, burning # the rest of the plan into errored rows. This script refuses to start a scenario it cannot pay # for, and aborts the moment a session comes back 402 — loudly, with a desktop notification and a # non-zero exit. Note the check ISSUES a tiny probe request rather than reading a balance field: # that same key reported $321 of `limit_remaining` while refusing every request, so only the # provider's own admission control is authoritative (see orchestrator/spend.can_afford). # # RESUMABLE. Sessions already recorded without an error count toward a scenario's target, so a # run killed at hour 30 picks up where it stopped. Errored rows never count — a dead session is # re-run, never accepted, which is what keeps the resume logic honest. # # Usage: # bash scripts/run_behavioural.sh # run / resume everything # bash scripts/run_behavioural.sh sso_wall checkout # named scenarios only # PLAN=1 bash scripts/run_behavioural.sh # show the plan, run nothing # REPS=5 bash scripts/run_behavioural.sh # denser cells # # Requires the servers to be up: ./scripts/serve.sh set -uo pipefail cd "$(dirname "$0")/.." REPS="${REPS:-3}" # sessions per (target, plant) cell COLD_REPS="${COLD_REPS:-10}" # cold sessions per scenario DENSE_COLD_REPS="${DENSE_COLD_REPS:-20}" # ...for scenarios with a real cold prior # Per-scenario target overrides, "key=loaded[:cold]", space separated. Use this where the # BACKBONE refuses a scenario outright: the full allocation then buys nothing but repeated # refusals. The scenario still RUNS at a reduced count — a refusal is a result, and dropping it # would be a silent exclusion. gpt-5.6-luna refuses the payment scenarios ("I can't log into an # online banking account... or place an order using payment/account information"), which is why # checkout_neutral is trimmed here; leave SCENARIO_REPS empty for a backbone that does not. SCENARIO_REPS="${SCENARIO_REPS:-}" export SCT_GUARD="${SCT_GUARD:-scoped}" unset SCT_SANDBOX_FRAMING SCT_CONFIDENTIALITY LLM="${LLM:-openrouter}" PLANFILE="$(mktemp)" trap 'rm -f "$PLANFILE"' EXIT # --- notification ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- notify() { local title="$1" body="$2" printf '\a' >&2 echo >&2 echo "################################################################" >&2 echo "# $title" >&2 echo "# $body" >&2 echo "################################################################" >&2 command -v notify-send >/dev/null 2>&1 && notify-send -u critical "$title" "$body" || true } abort_out_of_credit() { notify "SIDE-CHANNEL RUN STOPPED — OUT OF CREDIT" \ "$1 | $DONE/$TOTAL sessions done. Top up, then rerun this script to resume." uv run python -m orchestrator.spend --llm "$LLM" || true exit 2 } # --- outstanding cells, computed per (condition, plant) so a resume runs only what is missing -- COVER=(uv run python -m orchestrator.coverage --reps "$REPS" --cold-reps "$COLD_REPS" --dense-cold-reps "$DENSE_COLD_REPS") # shellcheck disable=SC2206 [ -n "$SCENARIO_REPS" ] && COVER+=(--scenario-reps $SCENARIO_REPS) want=("$@") [ ${#want[@]} -gt 0 ] && COVER+=(--scenarios "${want[@]}") "${COVER[@]}" > "$PLANFILE" || { echo "[fatal] could not compute outstanding cells" >&2; exit 1; } TOTAL="$("${COVER[@]}" --total)" DONE=0 echo "==================================================================" echo " arm A — behavioural, guard=$SCT_GUARD, reps=$REPS" [ -n "$SCENARIO_REPS" ] && echo " overrides : $SCENARIO_REPS (reduced, NOT excluded)" echo " dataset : ${SCT_DATASET:-(from .env)}" # Per-session cost and duration come from THIS dataset's own recorded sessions, not a constant: # the three backbones measured so far span $0.0092-$0.0241, so a hardcoded rate misestimates by # up to 2.6x. Falls back to a mid-range guess only when nothing has been costed yet. RATE="$(uv run python -c " import json, sqlite3, statistics from orchestrator.config import RESULTS_DB try: c = sqlite3.connect(f'file:{RESULTS_DB}?mode=ro', uri=True) costs = [v for (m,) in c.execute('select meta from sessions where error is null') if (v := json.loads(m or '{}').get('cost_usd')) and v > 0] secs = [r[0] for r in c.execute('select duration_s from sessions where error is null and duration_s is not null')] print(f'{statistics.mean(costs):.6f} {statistics.mean(secs):.1f}' if costs and secs else '0.015 90') except Exception: print('0.015 90')" 2>/dev/null)" [ -z "$RATE" ] && RATE="0.015 90" echo " outstanding : $TOTAL sessions (~\$$(awk "BEGIN{split(\"$RATE\",r,\" \"); printf \"%.2f\", $TOTAL*r[1]}"), ~$(awk "BEGIN{split(\"$RATE\",r,\" \"); printf \"%.1f\", $TOTAL*r[2]/3600}") h serial)" echo " already run : $(uv run python -c " import sqlite3 from orchestrator.config import RESULTS_DB try: print(sqlite3.connect(RESULTS_DB).execute( \"select count(*) from sessions where variant='A' and error is null\").fetchone()[0]) except Exception: print(0)") usable sessions credited" echo "==================================================================" uv run python -m orchestrator.spend --llm "$LLM" echo if [ "$TOTAL" -eq 0 ]; then echo "nothing outstanding — the sweep is complete." exit 0 fi if [ -n "${PLAN:-}" ]; then printf '%-20s %-18s %-6s %s\n' scenario condition reps plants while IFS=$'\t' read -r scen conds plants reps_; do printf '%-20s %-18s %-6s %s\n' "$scen" "$conds" "$reps_" "$plants" done < "$PLANFILE" exit 0 fi START="$(date +%s)" LAST_SCEN="" while IFS=$'\t' read -r scen conds plants reps_; do # Refuse to START a batch we cannot pay for. Cheaper than finding out 40 sessions in. if ! uv run python -m orchestrator.spend --llm "$LLM" --check >/dev/null; then abort_out_of_credit "provider refused a session-sized request before $scen/$conds" fi n_plants=$(echo "$plants" | tr ',' ' ' | wc -w) [ "$plants" = "-" ] && n_plants=1 batch=$(( n_plants * reps_ )) echo "== $scen | $conds | plants=$plants | reps=$reps_ ($batch sessions)" # --llms "$LLM" is load-bearing. Without it run_matrix falls back to the first entry of # MATRIX.available_llms(), which is "openrouter" -> whatever OPENROUTER_MODEL names in .env. # $LLM reached only the spend probes, so on 2026-08-23 a run launched as # LLM=claude_openrouter checked Claude's balance and then ran 715 gpt-5.6-luna sessions into # results/browseruse-claude-sonnet-5/ for 15 hours. The dataset directory said one backbone # and the rows said another. if [ "$plants" = "-" ]; then uv run python -m orchestrator.run_matrix --scenario "$scen" --llms "$LLM" \ --conditions "$conds" --variants A --reps "$reps_" --quiet --tqdm else # shellcheck disable=SC2086 uv run python -m orchestrator.run_matrix --scenario "$scen" --llms "$LLM" \ --conditions "$conds" --plants ${plants//,/ } \ --variants A --reps "$reps_" --quiet --tqdm fi # run_matrix exits 2 the moment any worker sees HTTP 402, and stops submitting the rest of the # batch rather than burning it into errored rows. (The previous guard here called a `saw_402` # helper that was never defined, so it had never once fired.) status=$? [ "$status" -eq 2 ] && abort_out_of_credit "a session returned HTTP 402 during $scen" DONE=$(( DONE + batch )) elapsed=$(( $(date +%s) - START )) if [ "$scen" != "$LAST_SCEN" ] || [ $(( DONE % 50 )) -lt "$batch" ]; then pct=$(awk "BEGIN{printf \"%.1f\", 100*$DONE/$TOTAL}") eta=$(awk "BEGIN{d=$DONE>0?$DONE:1; printf \"%.1f\", ($TOTAL-$DONE)*($elapsed/d)/3600}") echo "------------------------------------------------------------------" echo " progress : $DONE/$TOTAL this run (${pct}%) elapsed $((elapsed/3600))h$(( (elapsed%3600)/60 ))m ETA ~${eta}h" printf ' balance : '; uv run python -m orchestrator.spend --llm "$LLM" echo "------------------------------------------------------------------" LAST_SCEN="$scen" fi done < "$PLANFILE" echo echo "=== run finished: $DONE sessions this pass ===" echo "still outstanding: $("${COVER[@]}" --total)" uv run python -m orchestrator.spend --llm "$LLM" notify "SIDE-CHANNEL RUN COMPLETE" "$DONE sessions this pass. Scoring now." # Some backbones mistype the 32-char session id into the address bar, which files that session's # clicks under a bogus id and leaves the real row looking like an agent that declined to act. # Reattach those streams before scoring; unambiguous matches only (see the script's docstring). uv run python scripts/reconcile_events.py --apply || true uv run python -m analysis.export_report || true