"""Deterministic model-vs-execution diagnostic; no sampled TV estimators.""" from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json import math import time from fractions import Fraction from pathlib import Path import numpy as np from scipy.stats import binom def binomial_tv(n: int, p: float, q: float) -> float: """Exact finite distribution identity evaluated by double-precision CDFs. The likelihood ratio is monotone; CDF difference at its crossing gives TV. Neighbor candidates protect against floating-point rounding at a tie. This is not an interval-arithmetic certificate. """ if p == q or n == 0: return 0.0 p, q = sorted((p, q)) difference = q - p log_yes = math.log1p(difference / p) log_no = math.log1p(-difference / (1 - p)) slope = log_yes - log_no crossing = -n * log_no / slope k = math.floor(crossing) candidates = np.array([max(-1, min(n, k + d)) for d in (-1, 0, 1)]) return float(np.max(binom.cdf(candidates, n, p) - binom.cdf(candidates, n, q))) def kl_teacher_to_mixture(n, tau, w, delta, block_size=65536): """Sum all n+1 teacher count atoms; no intentional tail truncation.""" total = 0.0 mass = 0.0 terms_abs = 0.0 log_yes = math.log1p(delta / tau) log_no = math.log1p(-delta / (1 - tau)) for start in range(0, n + 1, block_size): k = np.arange(start, min(start + block_size, n + 1)) prob = binom.pmf(k, n, tau) log_lr = k * log_yes + (n - k) * log_no log_mix_lr = np.logaddexp(math.log1p(-w), math.log(w) + log_lr) terms = -prob * log_mix_lr total += float(np.sum(terms, dtype=np.float64)) terms_abs += float(np.sum(abs(terms), dtype=np.float64)) mass += float(np.sum(prob, dtype=np.float64)) residual = abs(mass - 1) if residual > 2e-8 or total < -1e-10 or total > -math.log1p(-w) + 1e-8: raise ArithmeticError((n, total, residual)) return {"kl": total, "teacher_mass_residual": residual, "absolute_summands": terms_abs, "evaluated_atoms": n + 1} def validate(): worst_cdf = 0.0 cases = 0 for n in (1, 2, 4, 16, 64, 257): for p, q in ((.25,.5),(.25,.28125),(.25,.250001),(.1,.8)): k = np.arange(n + 1) brute = .5 * np.sum(abs(binom.pmf(k,n,p) - binom.pmf(k,n,q))) error = abs(binomial_tv(n,p,q) - brute) worst_cdf = max(worst_cdf, error) assert error < 2e-12, (n,p,q,error) cases += 1 # Independent exact-rational small-count KL computation. worst_kl = 0.0 for n in range(1, 9): tau, w, delta = Fraction(1,4), Fraction(1,8), Fraction(1,4) expected = 0.0 for k in range(n + 1): p = Fraction(math.comb(n,k)) * tau**k * (1-tau)**(n-k) r = (1-w)*p + w*math.comb(n,k)*(tau+delta)**k*(1-tau-delta)**(n-k) expected += float(p) * math.log(float(p/r)) observed = kl_teacher_to_mixture(n,float(tau),float(w),float(delta))["kl"] worst_kl = max(worst_kl, abs(expected-observed)) assert worst_kl < 2e-12 return {"status":"PASS", "cdf_vs_pmf_cases":cases, "cdf_vs_pmf_max_error":worst_cdf, "rational_mass_kl_cases":8, "rational_mass_kl_max_error":worst_kl} def run(config): started = time.monotonic() validation = validate() records = [] for exponent in config["exponents"]: n = 2**exponent scale = (n/config["reference_n"])**(-config["decay_exponent"]) tau = config["tau"] w, delta = config["w0"]*scale, config["delta0"]*scale stats = kl_teacher_to_mixture(n,tau,w,delta,config["block_size"]) records.append({"n":n,"tau":tau,"w":w,"delta":delta, "kl":stats["kl"],"kl_upper_bound":-math.log1p(-w), "model_tv":w*binomial_tv(n,tau,tau+delta), "execution_tv":binomial_tv(n,tau,tau+w*delta), "head_tv_upper_bound":delta, "execution_hoeffding_lower_bound":max(0.0,1-2*math.exp(-n*(w*delta)**2/2)), "teacher_mass_residual":stats["teacher_mass_residual"], "evaluated_atoms":stats["evaluated_atoms"]}) print(f"E1 n={n} KL={stats['kl']:.6g} outputTV={records[-1]['execution_tv']:.6g}",flush=True) return {"experiment":"e1_model_execution","validation":validation, "records":records,"runtime_seconds":time.monotonic()-started, "metadata":{"method":"Full finite sums for KL; monotone-likelihood-ratio binomial CDF identity for TV", "error_accounting":"No intentional truncation. Double precision, not rigorous interval bounds; full teacher mass residual recorded.", "policy":"all A, then all B; fixed schedule, not all-policy optimum", "full_tv_justification":"Both laws have independent fair A and iid mismatches; count is sufficient for their likelihood ratio.", "head_error":"delta is a uniform upper bound, not measured worst-case equality"}} if __name__ == "__main__": parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() parser.add_argument("--config", type=Path, required=True) parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, required=True) args = parser.parse_args() result = run(json.loads(args.config.read_text())["e1"]) args.output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) args.output.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2, allow_nan=False)+"\n")