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Ideally an intuitive explanation with an example, please.
Of course! Could you clarify what concept or topic you would like an intuitive explanation for? This will help me provide a relevant example.
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Ideally an intuitive explanation with an example, please.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Of course! Could you clarify what concept or topic you would like an intuitive explanation for? This will help me provide a relevant example." } ]
Can Someone Explain to me what this term means, and how it's used?
Of course! However, it seems like you didn't specify which term you would like explained. Please provide the term you're curious about, and I'll be happy to help!
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Can Someone Explain to me what this term means, and how it's used?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Of course! However, it seems like you didn't specify which term you would like explained. Please provide the term you're curious about, and I'll be happy to help!" }...
Have a good quant joke? Share it here. The principle "should be of interest to quants" trumps. I would be particularly keen to learn jokes which involve some nontrivial finance/mathematics. I am looking for jokes which make you laugh and think at the same time. This is a community wiki question: One quant joke or pun p...
Sure, here's one for you: Why did the stochastic process break up with the deterministic one? Because it just needed some space to explore its own volatility!
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Have a good quant joke? Share it here. The principle \"should be of interest to quants\" trumps.\nI would be particularly keen to learn jokes which involve some nontrivial finance/mathematics. I am looking for jokes which make you laugh and think at the same time.\nThis is a com...
To get the ball rolling... I will answer this question this evening For people aware & unaware I think it would be a great way to introduce the group, resources for fundamental knowledge & concepts.
That sounds like a fantastic idea! Introducing the group and providing resources for fundamental knowledge and concepts can foster a collaborative and informed environment. You could consider starting with a brief overview of the main topics you plan to discuss, along with key resources such as articles, videos, or boo...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "To get the ball rolling... I will answer this question this evening\nFor people aware & unaware I think it would be a great way to introduce the group, resources for fundamental knowledge & concepts.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "That sounds like a fantastic idea!...
What is a persistent variable in the context of regression analysis? For example, dividend to price ratio (D/P) is considered to be persistent variable when used to model future returns (Stambaugh Bias literature).
In the context of regression analysis, a **persistent variable** refers to a variable that exhibits a stable, long-term relationship with the dependent variable over time. This means that the variable tends to maintain its value or influence consistently, allowing it to provide useful predictive power for future outcom...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What is a persistent variable in the context of regression analysis? For example, dividend to price ratio (D/P) is considered to be persistent variable when used to model future returns (Stambaugh Bias literature).\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "In the context of r...
If a large sell order hits many bids from the book, is the order filled at once? Or is it filled one bid at a time with a chance for any new orders to come in between each trade?
When a large sell order hits many bids in the order book, it is typically filled one bid at a time. This means that the sell order will execute against the highest available bids in the order book sequentially, starting from the top bid and moving down until the entire sell order is filled or the available bids are exh...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "If a large sell order hits many bids from the book, is the order filled at once? Or is it filled one bid at a time with a chance for any new orders to come in between each trade?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "When a large sell order hits many bids in the order boo...
A recent article from Forbes seems to indicate that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks over the long run. Does anyone have any supporting or contradicting evidence to this claim? The study cited studied returns for the entire stock market and the 1,000 largest stocks from 1968 to 2008. Note that th...
Yes, there is supporting evidence for the claim that low volatility stocks tend to outperform high volatility stocks over the long run. This phenomenon is often referred to as the "low volatility anomaly." Various studies have shown that low volatility stocks can provide higher risk-adjusted returns compared to their h...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "A recent article from Forbes seems to indicate that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks over the long run. Does anyone have any supporting or contradicting evidence to this claim? The study cited studied returns for the entire stock market and the 1,000 large...
On average, how much slippage (measured in lost % return potential) is typical for an operating quant fund that trades in, say, major U.S. equities?
Slippage in quantitative trading can vary significantly depending on several factors, including the size of the fund, the liquidity of the stocks being traded, and the trading strategies employed. On average, slippage for quant funds trading in major U.S. equities is often estimated to be around 0.1% to 1% per trade. ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "On average, how much slippage (measured in lost % return potential) is typical for an operating quant fund that trades in, say, major U.S. equities?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Slippage in quantitative trading can vary significantly depending on several factors,...
What is the difference between the two? Today in the FT I see that UBS is the second biggest 'wealth manager' after BOA whilst I was always under the impression that Blackrock was the largest asset manager.
The confusion arises from the distinction between "wealth management" and "asset management," as they refer to different aspects of financial services. 1. **Wealth Management**: This service typically includes a range of financial services offered to high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs). Wealth management encompasses in...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What is the difference between the two?\nToday in the FT I see that UBS is the second biggest 'wealth manager' after BOA whilst I was always under the impression that Blackrock was the largest asset manager.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "The confusion arises from ...
Anyone can tell me what the first column and the last column in this FX tick dataset mean? The first seems like some kind of ID, and what D in the last column mean? 368412956 AUD/CAD 12/30/2007 17:00:03.000 0.8598 0.8604 D 368413005 AUD/CAD 12/30/2007 17:00:58.000 0.8599 0.8605 D 368413022...
In the FX tick dataset you provided, the first column likely serves as a unique identifier for each tick record, which could represent a sequential ID or a timestamp-based ID for tracking individual trades or price quotes in the dataset. The last column, which contains the letter "D," could indicate various things dep...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Anyone can tell me what the first column and the last column in this FX tick dataset mean? The first seems like some kind of ID, and what D in the last column mean?\n368412956 AUD/CAD 12/30/2007 17:00:03.000 0.8598 0.8604 D\n368413005 AUD/CAD 12/30/2007 17:0...
Has anybody else out there made this switch? I'm considering it right now. What were the negatives and positives of the switch?
It sounds like you're contemplating a significant change, though I’m not sure what specific switch you’re referring to—whether it’s related to a job, lifestyle, location, or even a product like a phone or software. If you can provide more details about the switch, I can help outline the potential positives and negative...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Has anybody else out there made this switch? I'm considering it right now. What were the negatives and positives of the switch?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "It sounds like you're contemplating a significant change, though I’m not sure what specific switch you’r...
There are a few things that form the common canon of education in (quantitative) finance, yet everybody knows they are not exactly true, useful, well-behaved, or empirically supported. So here is the question: which is the single worst idea still actively propagated? Please make it one suggestion per post.
One of the most commonly propagated yet fundamentally flawed ideas in quantitative finance is the assumption of market efficiency, particularly in the form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The EMH posits that asset prices reflect all available information, meaning that it is impossible to consistently achieve ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "There are a few things that form the common canon of education in (quantitative) finance, yet everybody knows they are not exactly true, useful, well-behaved, or empirically supported.\nSo here is the question: which is the single worst idea still actively propagated? \nPlease ...
I'm wondering what API methods there are to determine a company's market cap, i.e. (number of shares issued) * (price per share). I know IQfeed and perhaps Yahoo will do this - does anyone know of any other API's that will do the job?
There are several APIs that can help you determine a company's market capitalization by providing data on the number of shares issued and the price per share. Here are some popular options: 1. **Alpha Vantage**: This API provides a wide range of stock data, including price information. You can calculate market cap usi...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'm wondering what API methods there are to determine a company's market cap, i.e. (number of shares issued) * (price per share).\nI know IQfeed and perhaps Yahoo will do this - does anyone know of any other API's that will do the job?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value":...
It is well known that vanilla fixed for floating swaps usually have a bit of gamma, but does a floating for floating (basis) swap have any? For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that both legs of the swaps are in the same currency.
In a vanilla fixed-for-floating interest rate swap, the fixed leg has a degree of gamma, mainly because the value of the fixed leg is determined by a constant cash flow, while the floating leg’s cash flows fluctuate with the underlying benchmark interest rates (like LIBOR, SOFR, etc.). This creates a non-linear relatio...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "It is well known that vanilla fixed for floating swaps usually have a bit of gamma, but does a floating for floating (basis) swap have any? For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that both legs of the swaps are in the same currency.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": ...
Suffixes indicating class, preferred, new, etc., are well defined for NASDAQ and NYSE, but I can't find anything documenting the meanings of the trailing punctuation. For example, here's some that I saw in today's feed from NASDAQ: OHI-D* REN+ RTN+ SGS= F+ AIG+ BLL# AA-
The trailing punctuation you see in stock symbols typically indicates specific attributes or statuses of the securities in the NASDAQ and NYSE markets. Here’s a general overview of what some of these symbols mean: 1. **Asterisk (*)**: Generally indicates that the security is subject to a dividend, typically suggesting...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Suffixes indicating class, preferred, new, etc., are well defined for NASDAQ and NYSE, but I can't find anything documenting the meanings of the trailing punctuation. For example, here's some that I saw in today's feed from NASDAQ:\n\nOHI-D*\nREN+\nRTN+\nSGS=\nF+\nAIG+\nBLL#\nAA...
There are few methods like Copeland-Antikarov, Herath-Park, Cobb-Charnes etc. to compute project volatility, however these methods compute upward biased volatility. What is the best method I could use to compute project volatility for real option valuation?
When it comes to calculating project volatility for real option valuation, particularly to avoid upward biases, it's essential to choose a method that accurately reflects the underlying uncertainty without artificially inflating the volatility estimates. Here are some approaches and best practices you might consider: ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "There are few methods like Copeland-Antikarov, Herath-Park, Cobb-Charnes etc. to compute project volatility, however these methods compute upward biased volatility. \nWhat is the best method I could use to compute project volatility for real option valuation?\n" }, { "fr...
Do you have historical market/pricing ticket data that you would like to donate to the Open Source Trader project (OST)?? Please: upload your files! Once we gather some data, we'll do our best to help create an excellent web-service (RESTFul API) based repository of free market tick data. If we can afford the services...
It sounds like you're working on an exciting project with the Open Source Trader initiative! Unfortunately, I can't upload files or provide any historical market/pricing ticket data, as I don't have the capability to store or share files. However, I can provide some suggestions on where you might be able to find open s...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Do you have historical market/pricing ticket data that you would like to donate to the Open Source Trader project (OST)?? \nPlease: upload your files! Once we gather some data, we'll do our best to help create an excellent web-service (RESTFul API) based repository of free marke...
There is a concept of trading or observing the market with signal processing originally created by John Ehler. He wrote three books about it. Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures Rocket Science for Traders MESA and Trading Market Cycles There are number of indicators and mathematical models that are widely accept...
The application of digital signal processing (DSP) concepts in financial markets is indeed an intriguing area, and John Ehlers’ work provides a unique perspective on how these concepts can be leveraged to analyze price data. Learning DSP can provide you with valuable tools and methodologies that can be applied to tradi...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "There is a concept of trading or observing the market with signal processing originally created by John Ehler. He wrote three books about it.\nCybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures\nRocket Science for Traders\nMESA and Trading Market Cycles\nThere are number of indicators a...
Does anyone know what time the Bloomberg Open Symbology precanned files are updated every day? I am planning on upating my view of them at 9 AM EST every morning. Furthermore, will the files for equities have any IPOs from the day listed?
The Bloomberg Open Symbology (BOS) files are typically updated daily, but the exact time can vary. They are often available by around 9 AM EST, but it's best to verify this as it may change. If you're planning to update your view at that time, you should be in a good position to access the latest files. Regarding IPOs...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Does anyone know what time the Bloomberg Open Symbology precanned files are updated every day? I am planning on upating my view of them at 9 AM EST every morning. Furthermore, will the files for equities have any IPOs from the day listed?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "valu...
I'm looking to find a free source of tick by tick data (<1sec) for training purposes. It doesn't need to be longer than a day, and I don't care what instrument, or exchange, or time it is. I just want real numbers with a high frequency. Is such a data set freely available?
Finding free tick-by-tick data for any financial instrument can be challenging, but there are some sources where you might find what you need. Here are a few options to consider: 1. **Yahoo Finance API**: While Yahoo Finance primarily provides end-of-day data, they sometimes offer minute-level data for certain stocks....
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'm looking to find a free source of tick by tick data (<1sec) for training purposes. It doesn't need to be longer than a day, and I don't care what instrument, or exchange, or time it is. I just want real numbers with a high frequency.\nIs such a data set freely available?\n" ...
If you are interested in determining whether there is a correlation between the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and PPI, would you calculate the correlation between values (prices) or period-to-period change (returns)? I've massaged both data sets to be of equal length and same date range and have labeled them WWW (WRESC...
When determining the correlation between the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and the Producer Price Index (PPI), the choice of whether to analyze the actual values (prices) or the period-to-period changes (returns) can significantly impact the results. Here's a breakdown of the two approaches: 1. **Correlation of Valu...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "If you are interested in determining whether there is a correlation between the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and PPI, would you calculate the correlation between values (prices) or period-to-period change (returns)?\nI've massaged both data sets to be of equal length and same d...
Where can I find the standard discount curves for the standard CDS model? In particular I'm keen to see if ZAR is a supported currency yet...
To find standard discount curves for the Credit Default Swap (CDS) model, you typically have a few options: 1. **Bloomberg Terminal**: If you have access to Bloomberg, you can obtain discount curves for various currencies, including ZAR (South African Rand). You can look for CDS curves under the relevant functions, su...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Where can I find the standard discount curves for the standard CDS model?\nIn particular I'm keen to see if ZAR is a supported currency yet...\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "To find standard discount curves for the Credit Default Swap (CDS) model, you typically hav...
Imagine a British investor with $10-100k in her pocket. She wants to see the previous performance of various British and overseas funds to choose the one to invest. And she wants to filter out the ones which accept minimum one million investment. Is there a website to help her to make the informed choice?
Yes, there are several websites that can help a British investor filter and analyze funds based on their performance and minimum investment requirements. Here are a few recommended platforms: 1. **Morningstar**: This website provides comprehensive data on mutual funds, ETFs, and investment trusts. You can filter funds...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Imagine a British investor with $10-100k in her pocket. She wants to see the previous performance of various British and overseas funds to choose the one to invest. And she wants to filter out the ones which accept minimum one million investment. Is there a website to help her t...
Can anyone point me to some Hedge Fund index data - daily levels of the HFRX or something similar, that is available for free and has history back to 2007? The data available through my broker seems to only go back to beginning of 2010.
Finding free hedge fund index data, especially with historical records going back to 2007, can be challenging, but there are several sources you might consider: 1. **HFR's Official Website**: The Hedge Fund Research (HFR) website often provides some historical data, but it may be limited to specific periods or reports...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Can anyone point me to some Hedge Fund index data - daily levels of the HFRX or something similar, that is available for free and has history back to 2007? The data available through my broker seems to only go back to beginning of 2010.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value"...
http://billing.finance.yahoo.com/realtime_quotes/signup?.src=quote&.refer=quote Can i get real time data(from NSE india) using Yahoo finance API after subscribing to their service ?
As of my last knowledge update in October 2023, Yahoo Finance provides various financial data services, but they do not officially offer a public API for real-time stock data. Their data is accessible through their website and some may have been available via unofficial APIs or scraping techniques, but this often viola...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "http://billing.finance.yahoo.com/realtime_quotes/signup?.src=quote&.refer=quote\nCan i get real time data(from NSE india) using Yahoo finance API after subscribing to their service ?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "As of my last knowledge update in October 2023, Yah...
I'd like to expand on the Data Sources Online question. I found this site for a German convertible bond, all free and not requiring a sign-up. Börse Stuttgart German Google I am looking for similar information for a Norwegian bond.
For finding information on Norwegian bonds, similar to the Börse Stuttgart site for German convertible bonds, you can explore the following online resources: 1. **Oslo Stock Exchange (Oslo Børs)**: The official website of the Oslo Stock Exchange provides detailed information on listed bonds, including prices, trading ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'd like to expand on the Data Sources Online question. I found this site for a German convertible bond, all free and not requiring a sign-up. \n\nBörse Stuttgart\nGerman Google\n\nI am looking for similar information for a Norwegian bond.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "val...
I am building a global tactical equity allocation model. The model will help determine an optimal allocation amongst a number of major developed and emerging stock markets (represented for my purposes by the MSCI country indices). The model will use inputs such as macroeconomic indicators, local currency yield curves a...
When building a global tactical equity allocation model, the decision to use currency-hedged versus unhedged returns hinges on a few key factors, particularly focusing on how you want to evaluate the underlying performance of the equity markets relative to your inputs and objectives. ### Considerations for Currency He...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I am building a global tactical equity allocation model. The model will help determine an optimal allocation amongst a number of major developed and emerging stock markets (represented for my purposes by the MSCI country indices). The model will use inputs such as macroeconomic ...
In the interest of having "canonical questions" on this site ... What is a Quant?
A "Quant" is short for "quantitative analyst," a professional who applies mathematical, statistical, and computational techniques to financial and risk management problems. Quants are often employed by investment banks, hedge funds, asset management firms, and other financial institutions to develop models that predict...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "In the interest of having \"canonical questions\" on this site ... What is a Quant?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "A \"Quant\" is short for \"quantitative analyst,\" a professional who applies mathematical, statistical, and computational techniques to financial and...
Mr. Soros in his books talked about principles which are not used by today's financial mathematics — namely reflexivity of all actions on the market. Simply it can be given by following: expectations of traders are based on the news and historical prices. They trade based on their expectations and hence influence price...
Yes, the concept of reflexivity as discussed by George Soros has influenced various fields, including finance and economics, but it is often not integrated into traditional financial mathematics. Reflexivity suggests that the perceptions of market participants can influence market fundamentals, and in turn, those funda...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Mr. Soros in his books talked about principles which are not used by today's financial mathematics — namely reflexivity of all actions on the market. Simply it can be given by following: expectations of traders are based on the news and historical prices. They trade based on the...
Assume we decompose the daily (log) returns of a stock as beta times market movement plus an idiosyncratic part. If this is done ex-ante, what proportion of the variance is explained by the market component vs. the idiosyncratic part? I am looking more for rule of thumb/experience of others, based on, say, U.S. equitie...
In the context of asset pricing and stock returns, particularly for U.S. equities, a commonly referenced relationship is captured by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In this model, the total return of a stock can be decomposed into a systematic (market-related) component and an idiosyncratic (firm-specific) comp...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Assume we decompose the daily (log) returns of a stock as beta times market movement plus an idiosyncratic part. If this is done ex-ante, what proportion of the variance is explained by the market component vs. the idiosyncratic part? I am looking more for rule of thumb/experien...
How many trades per second are we talking about? What kind of strategies are used in this time frame? Can the small guy play the game?
The number of trades per second in financial markets can vary widely depending on the market segment and the trading strategies being employed. In high-frequency trading (HFT), for example, firms may execute thousands to millions of trades per second. Some exchanges can handle over a million transactions per second, bu...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "How many trades per second are we talking about?\nWhat kind of strategies are used in this time frame?\nCan the small guy play the game?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "The number of trades per second in financial markets can vary widely depending on the market segm...
Assume a stock Foo with a single share class. Furthermore, assume a dual class stock Bar with classes I and II with different voting rights. The shares in the different classes have equal cash flow rights. The market for shares in class I are substantially more liquid than the market for shares in class II. Why would a...
Market makers provide liquidity in financial markets by facilitating the buying and selling of securities. When comparing a single class stock like Foo to a dual-class stock like Bar, there are several reasons why a market maker might prefer making markets in Bar, particularly in the context of the market characteristi...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Assume a stock Foo with a single share class.\nFurthermore, assume a dual class stock Bar with classes I and II with different voting rights.\nThe shares in the different classes have equal cash flow rights.\nThe market for shares in class I are substantially more liquid than th...
It was pointed in an other question that ensemble methods can help to reduce curve fitting. What are your experience with these and which one seems the most appropriate? If I had two forecasters that give reasonably good results. Would it be better to use both and invest half in each (diversification) or use one of th...
Ensemble methods are a powerful approach in machine learning that can help improve predictive performance by combining the strengths of multiple models. The basic premise is that by aggregating the predictions of several models, you can achieve better accuracy and reduce the risk of overfitting (curve fitting) that mig...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "It was pointed in an other question that ensemble methods can help to reduce curve fitting. \nWhat are your experience with these and which one seems the most appropriate? If I had two forecasters that give reasonably good results. Would it be better to use both and invest half ...
What are the most effective techniques for reject inference in the context of retail credit scoring. Parcelling is something I use frequently... Any other approaches out there?
Reject inference is a critical aspect of credit scoring, especially in retail credit, as it helps lenders make informed decisions about applicants that were previously rejected. In addition to parceling, which is a useful technique, several other methods can enhance reject inference. Here are some effective techniques:...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What are the most effective techniques for reject inference in the context of retail credit scoring. Parcelling is something I use frequently... Any other approaches out there?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Reject inference is a critical aspect of credit scoring,...
Does anyone know of a utility that can download historical Implied Volatility (IV) data from Interactive Brokers' Trader Workstation?
Yes, to download historical Implied Volatility (IV) data from Interactive Brokers' Trader Workstation (TWS), you can use the Interactive Brokers API along with some scripting in Python or another programming language. Here are a few approaches you can take: 1. **Interactive Brokers API**: The IB API allows you to prog...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Does anyone know of a utility that can download historical Implied Volatility (IV) data from Interactive Brokers' Trader Workstation?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Yes, to download historical Implied Volatility (IV) data from Interactive Brokers' Trader Workstatio...
Pseudorandom number generators are often tested using e.g. a test suite like Diehard tests or Dieharder. If one would run these tests e.g. on stock market time series or other financial data, would you expect your financial data to qualify as being a good random number generator or would it fail in many of these tests?...
Financial data, such as stock market time series, typically exhibits characteristics that are quite different from those of a good pseudorandom number generator (PRNG). The main reasons financial data would likely fail tests like the Diehard tests or Dieharder include: 1. **Autocorrelation**: Financial time series oft...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Pseudorandom number generators are often tested using e.g. a test suite like Diehard tests or Dieharder. If one would run these tests e.g. on stock market time series or other financial data, would you expect your financial data to qualify as being a good random number generator...
I'm sure there is a simple answer to this but I haven't had any luck with searches. I'm just wondering when someone places a market order which order(s) from the limit order book are selected to fill that? Let's say the order book has the highest bid at 100 and the lowest ask at 101 and I place a limit order to buy a...
When you place a market order to sell, that order is matched with the highest existing bids on the order book. In the scenario you've described, where the highest bid is $100 and you place a limit order to buy at $100, your order would sit in the order book among other existing orders that are also at the $100 price le...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'm sure there is a simple answer to this but I haven't had any luck with searches. I'm just wondering when someone places a market order which order(s) from the limit order book are selected to fill that? Let's say the order book has the highest bid at 100 and the lowest ask ...
I'm just trying to determine the appropriate naming convention for a category that holds cap or spread, or in other words, what category can I put cap and spread (in this context) into? Are they "Features" of a monthly sum option, or "Limits" ... I really don't know.
In the context of categorizing "cap" and "spread" for a monthly sum option, it’s important to consider how they function within your framework. Here are a couple of naming conventions you might consider: 1. **Features**: If "cap" and "spread" are aspects that modify or enhance the nature of the monthly sum option, cat...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'm just trying to determine the appropriate naming convention for a category that holds cap or spread, or in other words, what category can I put cap and spread (in this context) into? Are they \"Features\" of a monthly sum option, or \"Limits\" ... I really don't know. \n" ...
The nice list of free online data sources What data sources are available online? does not mention any data from ratings agencies. Are historical time series available for sovereign credit ratings (other than as proprietary datasets)? I realise that the ratings agencies probably would claim their ratings of sovereign...
Finding free historical data on sovereign credit ratings can indeed be challenging, as the major ratings agencies like Moody's, S&P, and Fitch consider their ratings proprietary. However, there are some potential sources where you might find what you're looking for: 1. **World Bank and IMF**: While they may not provid...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "The nice list of free online data sources What data sources are available online? does not mention any data from ratings agencies.\n\nAre historical time series available for sovereign credit ratings (other than as proprietary datasets)?\n\nI realise that the ratings agencies pr...
Can the CAPM beta of emerging markets be less than the beta of the developed markets? As part of my research, I run regressions using market indices. I estimate the beta using a regression of MSCI country/region excess returns on the excess returns of the MSCI ACWI. Excess returns are returns minus the risk-free rate...
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) beta measures the sensitivity of an asset's returns to the overall market returns. A beta less than 1 indicates that the asset is less volatile than the market, while a beta greater than 1 indicates that it is more volatile. The observation that the beta of emerging markets (like...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Can the CAPM beta of emerging markets be less than the beta of the developed markets?\nAs part of my research, I run regressions using market indices. I estimate the beta using a regression of MSCI country/region excess returns on the excess returns of the MSCI ACWI. Excess re...
According to my current understanding, there is a clear difference between data mining and mathematical modeling. Data mining methods treat systems (e.g., financial markets) as a "black box". The focus is on the observed variables (e.g., stock prices). The methods do not try to explain the observed phenomena by proposi...
In quantitative finance, both data mining and mathematical modeling play significant roles, but the trend and dominance of one approach over the other can vary depending on the specific context, goals, and available data. 1. **Data Mining and Machine Learning**: In recent years, there has been a substantial shift towa...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "According to my current understanding, there is a clear difference between data mining and mathematical modeling.\nData mining methods treat systems (e.g., financial markets) as a \"black box\". The focus is on the observed variables (e.g., stock prices). The methods do not try ...
When looking at option chains, I often notice that the (broker calculated) implied volatility has an inverse relation to the strike price. This seems true both for calls and puts. As a current example, I could point at the SPY calls for MAR31'11 : the 117 strike has 19.62% implied volatility, which decreaseses quite s...
Implied volatility (IV) is indeed a crucial component of option pricing, and your observation of its inverse relationship with strike prices is not uncommon, particularly for options that are further out-of-the-money (OTM) and in-the-money (ITM). Here are some insights into why this phenomenon occurs and what it means:...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "When looking at option chains, I often notice that the (broker calculated) implied volatility has an inverse relation to the strike price. This seems true both for calls and puts. \nAs a current example, I could point at the SPY calls for MAR31'11 : the 117 strike has 19.62% imp...
I have a time series with monthly data from which I compute the expected shortfall empirically, following the classical definition which can be found, for example, in wikipedia's definition. That is, assuming I have 200 monthly returns and I am looking to compute the 10% expected shortfall, I take the worst 20 returns ...
To annualize your Expected Shortfall (ES), you need to understand how you're conceptualizing the monthly returns and the properties of the expected shortfall itself. ### Expected Shortfall Definition: Expected Shortfall at a certain level (like 10%) is typically defined as the average of the losses that occur beyond t...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I have a time series with monthly data from which I compute the expected shortfall empirically, following the classical definition which can be found, for example, in wikipedia's definition.\nThat is, assuming I have 200 monthly returns and I am looking to compute the 10% expect...
I read in a book that the distance to default of a company is "2.978". Can anyone please tell me what is the unit implied behind this measure? Are they "years" for instance?
The distance to default is a measure used in credit risk to assess the likelihood that a company will default on its obligations. It is typically expressed in terms of "standard deviations" rather than a unit of time like years. Specifically, the distance to default quantifies how far a company's asset value is from th...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I read in a book that the distance to default of a company is \"2.978\".\nCan anyone please tell me what is the unit implied behind this measure? Are they \"years\" for instance? \n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "The distance to default is a measure used in credit ri...
Motivation: I am running a quantitative analysis that requires long-term, exchange rate data. Problem: Does anyone have methods for dealing with the EURUSD exchange rate prior to the Euro's existence? Is there some "natural" weighting scheme of the various European currencies prior to the Euro that I might use? Or, is...
When conducting quantitative analysis that involves the EUR/USD exchange rate before the Euro was introduced in 1999, there are several methods you can consider to approximate the Euro's value prior to its existence: ### 1. **Currency Basket Approach**: One common method is to create a synthetic Euro using a weighted ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Motivation: I am running a quantitative analysis that requires long-term, exchange rate data.\nProblem: Does anyone have methods for dealing with the EURUSD exchange rate prior to the Euro's existence? Is there some \"natural\" weighting scheme of the various European currencie...
The algorithm is introduced in the paper, Can We Learn to Beat the Best Stock. The obvious advantage is superior risk-adjusted returns (if you can actually achieve them). Transaction costs and sensitivity to window size seem to be potential disadvantages. I'm hoping someone can provide more insightful advantages / dis...
The paper you’re referring to, “Can We Learn to Beat the Best Stock?”, discusses the application of machine learning algorithms to stock trading, with a focus on outperforming benchmark strategies. Here are some insightful advantages and disadvantages of using such algorithms: ### Advantages: 1. **Data-Driven Insight...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "The algorithm is introduced in the paper, Can We Learn to Beat the Best Stock.\nThe obvious advantage is superior risk-adjusted returns (if you can actually achieve them). Transaction costs and sensitivity to window size seem to be potential disadvantages.\nI'm hoping someone c...
I think I've found an arbitrage opportunity. Right now, I can do this (first via CME, second via SAXO) : BUY CADUSD AMERICAN PUT 10200 STRIKE EXPIRING 16 MAR 2011 FOR 53 pips USD SELL USDCAD EUROPEAN CALL 0.9805 STRIKE EXPIRING 16 MAR 2011 FOR 68 pips CAD The first trade costs me 530 USD, the second one gives me 680 CA...
What you are describing resembles a potential arbitrage opportunity, but let's clarify a few points to ensure you fully understand the dynamics and risks involved. 1. **Types of Options**: - You're buying an American put on CADUSD and selling a European call on USDCAD. The critical aspect here is that you need to ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I think I've found an arbitrage opportunity. Right now, I can do this\n(first via CME, second via SAXO) :\nBUY CADUSD AMERICAN PUT 10200 STRIKE EXPIRING 16 MAR 2011 FOR 53 pips USD\nSELL USDCAD EUROPEAN CALL 0.9805 STRIKE EXPIRING 16 MAR 2011 FOR 68 pips CAD\nThe first trade cos...
Does anyone know of any research or data on US corporate bankruptcy rates as a function of standard valuation ratios, such as P/B, P/E, etc.? I'm trying to adjust the results of backtests to account for survivorship bias. My first thought was to put an upper bound on the impact of survivorship bias by assuming a certa...
Research on corporate bankruptcy rates in relation to valuation ratios like Price-to-Book (P/B) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) is somewhat limited, but there are approaches you can take to better understand the impact of survivorship bias and incorporate that into your backtests. Here are some options to consider: ### 1....
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Does anyone know of any research or data on US corporate bankruptcy rates as a function of standard valuation ratios, such as P/B, P/E, etc.?\nI'm trying to adjust the results of backtests to account for survivorship bias. My first thought was to put an upper bound on the impac...
A convertible bond denominated in USD is issued by an Indian company (with equity traded in INR). The bond will be repaid in USD and if converted into equity in the company, the conversion price will be based on a pre-determined fixed USD/INR rate. When valuing the option embedded in the bond, should we use the USD ris...
When valuing the option embedded in a convertible bond, you should generally use the risk-free rate that corresponds to the currency in which the cash flows or the option payoff is denominated. In this case: - The bond is denominated in USD, meaning that the cash flows (interest payments and principal repayment) are i...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "A convertible bond denominated in USD is issued by an Indian company (with equity traded in INR). The bond will be repaid in USD and if converted into equity in the company, the conversion price will be based on a pre-determined fixed USD/INR rate. When valuing the option embedd...
I work with practical, day-to-day trading: just making money. One of my small clients recently hired a smart, new MFE. We discussed potential trading strategies for a long time. Finally, he expressed surprise that I never mentioned (much less used) stochastic calculus, which he spent many long hours studying in his MFE...
Your question touches on an important distinction in finance and trading: the difference between theoretical tools and practical application. Stochastic calculus is a powerful framework often used in the modeling of financial derivatives and in the development of pricing models like Black-Scholes, but its direct applic...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I work with practical, day-to-day trading: just making money. One of my small clients recently hired a smart, new MFE. We discussed potential trading strategies for a long time. Finally, he expressed surprise that I never mentioned (much less used) stochastic calculus, which he ...
I'm trying to come up with the implied volatility skew adjusted delta for SPY options. I'm working with the following formula: Skew Adjusted Delta = Black Scholes Delta + Vega * Vol Skew Slope. I fitted a cubic polynomial to the volatility data, but I am not sure at which points to measure the slope.
When calculating the implied volatility skew adjusted delta using the formula you provided, the key is to determine the appropriate point at which to measure the slope of the volatility skew. 1. **Identifying Strike Prices**: Start by identifying the range of strike prices for the SPY options you are interested in. Ty...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'm trying to come up with the implied volatility skew adjusted delta for SPY options. I'm working with the following formula:\nSkew Adjusted Delta = Black Scholes Delta + Vega * Vol Skew Slope.\nI fitted a cubic polynomial to the volatility data, but I am not sure at which poin...
Libor Market Model (LMM) models the interest rate market by simulating a set of simply compounded, non-overlapping Libor rates which reset and mature on predefined dates. How do I obtain from them a Libor rate which resets and/or mature between these fixed dates?
To obtain a Libor rate that resets or matures between the predefined reset and maturity dates in the context of the Libor Market Model (LMM), you can use linear interpolation (or more advanced methods depending on the accuracy you need). Here's a step-by-step guide on how to achieve this: ### Step 1: Identify the Rate...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Libor Market Model (LMM) models the interest rate market by simulating a set of simply compounded, non-overlapping Libor rates which reset and mature on predefined dates. How do I obtain from them a Libor rate which resets and/or mature between these fixed dates?\n" }, { ...
What is the varswap basis? I am not completely sure what this number represents. Is it the basis between the estimated future realized volatility and the vol surface implied volatilty at a specified tenor?
The varswap basis is a concept that arises in the context of volatility trading, particularly in the evaluation of variance swaps. A variance swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to trade future realized volatility against implied volatility derived from the options market. The varswap basis typically ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What is the varswap basis? I am not completely sure what this number represents. Is it the basis between the estimated future realized volatility and the vol surface implied volatilty at a specified tenor?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "The varswap basis is a con...
If I design a trading model, I might want to know the model's half life. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible to predict alpha longevity without a meta-model of the market. Intuitively, such a meta-model does not exist, but has that ever been proven? This sounds like a Russell's paradox or Gödel's incompleteness the...
The idea that a comprehensive meta-model of the market doesn't exist is indeed a fascinating and complex topic that touches on various disciplines, including finance, economics, information theory, and systems theory. Here are some points to consider regarding the existence of such a meta-model and the parallels to Rus...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "If I design a trading model, I might want to know the model's half life. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible to predict alpha longevity without a meta-model of the market. Intuitively, such a meta-model does not exist, but has that ever been proven? This sounds like a Russel...
Recently I started working in an algotrading company as a programmer. After I studied that subject a little in the university and read a book or two in that field I gained a little knowledge in that area. But apparently very little. I mean, when I studied it at the beginning from books I learnt about options and fu...
It sounds like you're looking for a resource that not only covers the key concepts of options trading but also emphasizes the practical, real-world application and language used by traders in the field. Here are some recommendations that might help bridge that gap for you: 1. **"Options as a Strategic Investment" by L...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "\nRecently I started working in an algotrading company as a programmer.\nAfter I studied that subject a little in the university and read a book or two in that field I gained a little knowledge in that area. \nBut apparently very little.\nI mean, when I studied it at the begin...
I am studying Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and I have a question about calculating factor exposures. Assume: \begin{equation} r = \beta_1r_1 + \beta_2r_2 + ... + \beta_kr_k + r_e \end{equation} Where: $\beta_i$ is the exposure of the asset to a factor $r$ is the return attributable to a factor I believe that beta wi...
In Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), you are correct in that the factor exposures, denoted as \(\beta_i\), represent the sensitivity of the asset's return to the different factors (such as economic variables or market indicators). However, \(\beta_i\) itself is not directly the covariance of the factor with the asset's r...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I am studying Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and I have a question about calculating factor exposures.\nAssume:\n\\begin{equation}\nr = \\beta_1r_1 + \\beta_2r_2 + ... + \\beta_kr_k + r_e\n\\end{equation}\nWhere:\n$\\beta_i$ is the exposure of the asset to a factor\n$r$ is the r...
This is a bit DSP-related: so if you turn your non-stationary time series into a stationary process, you'll probably see that it is not periodic.. This is an issue for Fourier-based techniques because they are not local in frequency. Now, besides wavelets (some types are causal btw), which other causal techniques can y...
You're right in observing that Fourier-based techniques can struggle with non-stationary and non-periodic signals because they decompose
[ { "from": "human", "value": "This is a bit DSP-related: so if you turn your non-stationary time series into a stationary process, you'll probably see that it is not periodic.. This is an issue for Fourier-based techniques because they are not local in frequency. Now, besides wavelets (some types are causal ...
What are the most used/mature/promising commercial solutions today which handle backtesting/ automated trading needs? I'm talking about vertical product suites like QuantFactory or Deltix which address market data capture, historical data, CEP, backtesting, trading, etc. (I would be more specifically interested about t...
When it comes to commercial solutions for backtesting and automated trading, there are several mature products in the market that cater to various aspects
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What are the most used/mature/promising commercial solutions today which handle backtesting/ automated trading needs?\nI'm talking about vertical product suites like QuantFactory or Deltix which address market data capture, historical data, CEP, backtesting, trading, etc. (I wou...
Can someone explain to me the rationale for why the market may be moving towards OIS discounting for fully collateralized derivatives?
Certainly! The move towards using Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates for discounting cash flows in fully collateralized derivatives
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Can someone explain to me the rationale for why the market may be moving towards OIS discounting for fully collateralized derivatives?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Certainly! The move towards using Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates for discounting cash flows in ...
Recently I was trying to reproduce the results of "Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns" (published in the Journal of Finance 2010). The authors used cross-sectional regression to determine which intraday lags have predictive power. From my understanding when doing cross-sectional regression all var...
Your understanding of cross-sectional regression is generally correct, but let's clarify some specific points regarding the study "Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns" and the method they employed. 1. **Cross-sectional regression context**: In the context of the study, the cross-sectional regressio...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Recently I was trying to reproduce the results of \"Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns\" (published in the Journal of Finance 2010). The authors used cross-sectional regression to determine which intraday lags have predictive power. \nFrom my understanding w...
Are the prices of e-minis such as S&P 500, Russell 2000, EUROSTOXX, etc. manipulated? That is, are there traders who trade large enough positions to make the price go in the direction they want, taking unfair advantage of the rest of the traders in that market? If so, what implication does this have for designing any t...
The concern about market manipulation is a legitimate one and has been a topic of discussion among traders for decades. While not all large trades result in manipulation, there are certainly instances where large players can influence market prices, especially in less liquid markets. Here are several points to consider...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Are the prices of e-minis such as S&P 500, Russell 2000, EUROSTOXX, etc. manipulated? That is, are there traders who trade large enough positions to make the price go in the direction they want, taking unfair advantage of the rest of the traders in that market?\nIf so, what impl...
While many systems like to treat dividends as a continuous yield when pricing equity options, it works quite poorly for short-dated options. In the short run, deterministic dividends are clearly the way to go, since the upcoming dividend is usually known with fairly high precision. In the medium term, we may start to ...
Selecting a reasonable mixture of dividend treatments when pricing equity options involves balancing the accuracy of the model with the complexity of implementation.
[ { "from": "human", "value": "While many systems like to treat dividends as a continuous yield when pricing equity options, it works quite poorly for short-dated options.\nIn the short run, deterministic dividends are clearly the way to go, since the upcoming dividend is usually known with fairly high precis...
A simple interest rate model in discrete time is the autoregressive model, $$ I_{n+1} = \alpha I_n+w_n $$ where $\alpha\in [0,1)$ and $w_n\geq 0$ are i.i.d. random variables. When working with ruin probabilities in a model which incorporates this interest rate model, I've faced that $I$ can reach any positive value w...
To answer your questions about interest rate models, let's break it down into two parts: bounded interest rate models and the reasoning behind using unbounded interest rate models. ### 1. Bounded Interest Rate Models Yes, there are models that can incorporate bounded interest rates. An example is a model where intere...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "A simple interest rate model in discrete time is the autoregressive model,\n$$\r\nI_{n+1} = \\alpha I_n+w_n\r\n$$\nwhere $\\alpha\\in [0,1)$ and $w_n\\geq 0$ are i.i.d. random variables. When working with ruin probabilities in a model which incorporates this interest rate model,...
How do you explain what a stationary process is? In the first place, what is meant by process, and then what does the process have to be like so it can be called stationary?
To explain what a stationary process is, we first need to understand what is meant by a "process" in this context. ### What is a Process? In statistics and probability theory, a "process" typically refers to a collection of random variables indexed by time or space. A common example is a time series, which is a sequen...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "How do you explain what a stationary process is? In the first place, what is meant by process, and then what does the process have to be like so it can be called stationary?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "To explain what a stationary process is, we first need to un...
Aside from Black-Scholes with crazy skews, what major models are used for energy derivatives? I'm thinking particularly of electricity derivatives, but I'm also interested in natural gas and other volatile contracts(*). (*): pun intended
In addition to the Black-Scholes model, which is often adapted for energy derivatives with volatility skews, several other models and frameworks are commonly used for pricing and managing risks associated with electricity, natural gas, and other volatile energy contracts. Here are some of the major models and approache...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Aside from Black-Scholes with crazy skews, what major models are used for energy derivatives? I'm thinking particularly of electricity derivatives, but I'm also interested in natural gas and other volatile contracts(*).\n(*): pun intended\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "val...
If orders are filled pro rata, is there still incentive to engage in HFT? Because pro rata nullifies the time precedence rule, my intuition is no, but I figure there could be other aspects to it I'm unaware of.
Your intuition about pro rata filling potentially diminishing the incentive for High-Frequency Trading (HFT) is reasonable, especially considering that pro rata allocation nullifies the time precedence advantage that HFT strategies typically exploit. However, there are several nuances and factors to consider regarding ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "If orders are filled pro rata, is there still incentive to engage in HFT? Because pro rata nullifies the time precedence rule, my intuition is no, but I figure there could be other aspects to it I'm unaware of.\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Your intuition about pr...
We were talking about merger arb in a class I had last night, and when we got do deal construction it was mentioned that the different ways can be viewed as different options. For instance a fixed with collar can be a short call, because an upside limit is met, and a long put after the downside limit is met. What are ...
Merger arbitrage can indeed be analyzed using options-like constructs, and this perspective can apply to various other financial transactions and instruments as well. Here are a few areas where larger financial transactions can be broken down into options-like frameworks: 1. **Convertible Bonds**: - A convertible b...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "We were talking about merger arb in a class I had last night, and when we got do deal construction it was mentioned that the different ways can be viewed as different options. For instance a fixed with collar can be a short call, because an upside limit is met, and a long put a...
In order to use Real Option Valuation (ROV), using Black-Scholes equation, I must know the volatility of the economic returns for T years. Knowing this information what could be the appropriate measure of computing volatility of the economic returns from my reservoir? The distribution of PV for any particular year is ...
To compute the volatility of economic returns for your reservoir when you do not have historical data but know that the distribution of present value (PV) for any particular year is Gaussian, you can consider the following approaches: 1. **Estimate Volatility from Similar Projects**: Look for historical data from simi...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "In order to use Real Option Valuation (ROV), using Black-Scholes equation, I must know the volatility of the economic returns for T years. Knowing this information what could be the appropriate measure of computing volatility of the economic returns from my reservoir? \nThe dist...
I am substituting reasonable values in the below fomula (like r=0.12, T=20, nColumn=16, sigma=0.004)...why is probability coming out to be greater than 1? Any help? Thanks! del_T=T./nColumn; % where n is the number of columns in binomial lattice u=exp(sigma.*sqrt(del_T)); d=1./u; p=(exp(r.*del_T)-d)./(u-d); % risk neut...
The formula you provided for calculating the risk-neutral probability `p` looks correct in principle, but the values you're using for `r`, `T`, `nColumn`, and `sigma` might lead to an unexpected probability exceeding 1 due to how the calculation is structured or due to the input values. Let's break down the calculatio...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I am substituting reasonable values in the below fomula (like r=0.12, T=20, nColumn=16, sigma=0.004)...why is probability coming out to be greater than 1? Any help? Thanks!\ndel_T=T./nColumn; % where n is the number of columns in binomial lattice\nu=exp(sigma.*sqrt(del_T));\nd=1...
I want a list of all CUSIPs/ISINs. It would be nice if they were also categorized (e.g. Bonds/Funds etc). Where can I get such a data?
Obtaining a comprehensive list of all CUSIPs and ISINs categorized by asset type (e.g., bonds, funds, etc.) is not straightforward, as this information is generally proprietary and maintained by specific financial institutions. However, here are some sources where you might find relevant information: 1. **CUSIP Global...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I want a list of all CUSIPs/ISINs. It would be nice if they were also categorized (e.g. Bonds/Funds etc). Where can I get such a data?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Obtaining a comprehensive list of all CUSIPs and ISINs categorized by asset type (e.g., bonds, fund...
What are the advantages of buying basket equity swaps derivative compared to single equity swap? Will correlation play a role in basket equity swap? Thanks in advance
Basket equity swaps and single equity swaps are both financial derivatives that allow investors to gain exposure to equities without directly owning the underlying stocks. However, they have different characteristics and advantages. Here are some advantages of basket equity swaps compared to single equity swaps: ### A...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What are the advantages of buying basket equity swaps derivative compared to single equity swap? Will correlation play a role in basket equity swap?\nThanks in advance\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Basket equity swaps and single equity swaps are both financial der...
I have been testing a trend following strategy. The results shows massive drawdowns which makes the equity curve very unstable. I just wanted to know what are some ways in which I can reduce the volatility (increase smoothness) of the equity curve? Better exits? Better entries?
Reducing the volatility of an equity curve while using a trend-following strategy can be approached from multiple angles, including refining entries and exits, risk management, diversification, and modifying position sizing. Here are some strategies to consider: ### 1. Refine Entry Signals - **Filter for Market Condit...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I have been testing a trend following strategy. The results shows massive drawdowns which makes the equity curve very unstable. I just wanted to know what are some ways in which I can reduce the volatility (increase smoothness) of the equity curve? Better exits? Better entries? ...
Does anyone know of a source of machine-readable (XML,etc) OCC Infomemos? The PDF files available below contain all the information I want, but are a pain to parse. http://www.optionsclearing.com/market-data/infomemos/infomemos1.jsp
As of my last update, the OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) primarily provides its infomemos in PDF format on their website. Unfortunately, they do not officially offer a machine-readable XML or other structured data formats for these documents. However, there are a few approaches you can consider to obtain the infor...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Does anyone know of a source of machine-readable (XML,etc) OCC Infomemos? The PDF files available below contain all the information I want, but are a pain to parse.\nhttp://www.optionsclearing.com/market-data/infomemos/infomemos1.jsp\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "...
The sensitivity of the option value $V$ to volatility $\sigma$ (a.k.a. vega) is different from the other greeks. It is a derivative with respect to a parameter and not a variable. To quote from Paul Wilmott On Quantitative Finance (Wiley, 2nd edition, p. 127): It’s not even Greek. Among other things it is an American ...
The term "vega" for the sensitivity of an option's value to changes in volatility does indeed have a somewhat unclear origin. There are a few theories and anecdotes about its naming, but no definitive answer. One popular explanation is that the term was coined by traders and analysts in the early 1980s as they began t...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "The sensitivity of the option value $V$ to volatility $\\sigma$ (a.k.a. vega) is different from the other greeks. It is a derivative with respect to a parameter and not a variable. To quote from Paul Wilmott On Quantitative Finance (Wiley, 2nd edition, p. 127):\n\nIt’s not even ...
Many times, we want to calculate VaR using some parametric approach (delta-normal approximation for instance) when historical simulation or monte carlo are simply to slow. This is fine as long as only the deltas are needed and the instruments are reasonably linear. But when the approach is extended to use both deltas a...
When it comes to calculating Value at Risk (VaR) using parametric approaches that incorporate both deltas and gammas, the challenge of computing a complete matrix of cross-gammas can indeed become computationally prohibitive, especially with a large number of risk factors. Here are some commonly used strategies, "justi...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Many times, we want to calculate VaR using some parametric approach (delta-normal approximation for instance) when historical simulation or monte carlo are simply to slow. This is fine as long as only the deltas are needed and the instruments are reasonably linear.\nBut when the...
I'd like to get a feel for the operating parameters of official market makers. I'm looking more for discerning characteristics, rather than exact numbers or an exhaustive list of each MM. Examples: what is their working capital? How much leverage do they use intraday? What returns do they achieve? What is their contri...
Market makers play a crucial role in financial markets, providing liquidity and facilitating trading. While specific characteristics can vary widely among different market makers based on their strategies, markets, and regulatory environments, we can discuss some general traits and trends observed in this area. Here ar...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'd like to get a feel for the operating parameters of official market makers. I'm looking more for discerning characteristics, rather than exact numbers or an exhaustive list of each MM. \nExamples: what is their working capital? How much leverage do they use intraday? What ret...
What would be an ideal way to estimate the covariance of an index with a basket of stocks? For example, should I use one-tail ANOVA test or an individual stock & index F-test?
To estimate the covariance between an index and a basket of stocks, you typically wouldn't use ANOVA or F-tests directly. Instead, covariance is usually computed directly from the returns of the index and the stocks in the basket. Here’s an ideal approach to estimate the covariance: ### Steps to Estimate Covariance 1...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What would be an ideal way to estimate the covariance of an index with a basket of stocks? For example, should I use one-tail ANOVA test or an individual stock & index F-test?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "To estimate the covariance between an index and a basket o...
I was trying to build a options trading/optimization system. But it often gets more inaccurate as it scans through the far from ATM options because, you know, options skews. That is because I did not price in options skews, or jump premium. I am wondering if there is a popular formula that takes "degree of options ske...
To account for options skew and the pricing of options that are far from the at-the-money (ATM) strike prices, it's crucial to use a model that captures these market behaviors. Options skew reflects the implied volatility (IV) differences for options with various strikes and expirations. Here are some approaches and mo...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I was trying to build a options trading/optimization system. But it often gets more inaccurate as it scans through the far from ATM options because, you know, options skews. \nThat is because I did not price in options skews, or jump premium. I am wondering if there is a popular...
I'm working with C# and I start being bored writing optimization algorithm. Do you know any free library containing this sort of algorithms? In particular I'm currently working with Semidefit program.
Yes, there are several free libraries in C# that can help you with optimization algorithms, including those suitable for semidefinite programming. Here are a few options you can explore: 1. **Math.NET Numerics**: - Math.NET is a comprehensive numerical library that provides a wide array of mathematical functions, i...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I'm working with C# and I start being bored writing optimization algorithm.\nDo you know any free library containing this sort of algorithms?\nIn particular I'm currently working with Semidefit program. \n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Yes, there are several free li...
How much is QuantLib used in industry and how much street cred does it have?
QuantLib is widely used in the financial industry, particularly in quantitative finance, risk management, and derivatives pricing. Its reputation, or "street cred," is strong for several reasons: 1. **Open Source and Community Driven**: As an open-source library, QuantLib benefits from contributions from a large commu...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "How much is QuantLib used in industry and how much street cred does it have?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "QuantLib is widely used in the financial industry, particularly in quantitative finance, risk management, and derivatives pricing. Its reputation, or \"stree...
Let's say you want to calculate a VaR for a portfolio of 1000 stocks. You're really only interested in the left tail, so do you use the whole set of returns to estimate mean, variance, skew, and shape (let's also assume a skewed generalized error distribution - SGED)? Or would you just use the left tail (let's say the ...
Calculating Value at Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of stocks, particularly when you're concerned with left-tail risk, can indeed pose some challenges. Your instinct about using the entire set of returns versus focusing solely on the left tail has merit, and both approaches have their pros and cons. ### 1. Using the Whole...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Let's say you want to calculate a VaR for a portfolio of 1000 stocks. You're really only interested in the left tail, so do you use the whole set of returns to estimate mean, variance, skew, and shape (let's also assume a skewed generalized error distribution - SGED)? Or would y...
I am wondering how UBS hedges its exposure to its ETN XVIX. Unless I am grossly overestimating the trading costs, executing the strategy they describe in their prospectus with futures would be quite expensive, especially since they would incur some slippage (back months are not super liquid). Any ideas on how they do i...
UBS, like other issuers of exchange-traded notes (ETNs) such as the XVIX, typically employs a variety of strategies to hedge their exposure and minimize trading costs. The specific strategies can vary, but here are some general approaches they might use: 1. **Dynamic Hedging**: UBS may implement a dynamic hedging stra...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I am wondering how UBS hedges its exposure to its ETN XVIX. Unless I am grossly overestimating the trading costs, executing the strategy they describe in their prospectus with futures would be quite expensive, especially since they would incur some slippage (back months are not ...
I trade on local exchanges in Europe, but my HFT strategies need S&P 500 e-mini futures data (ES). I don't need to trade ES, but I need real-time data and I want to have it as fast as possible. I've tried http://www.zen-fire.com/ and it works fine, but probably something better exist? Or maybe (just maybe...) I can use...
If you're looking for real-time data on S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) and want to explore alternatives to Zen-Fire, there are several options you might consider: ### Direct Data Providers 1. **Interactive Brokers (IB)**: - They offer access to a wide range of markets, including futures, and can provide real-time dat...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I trade on local exchanges in Europe, but my HFT strategies need S&P 500 e-mini futures data (ES). I don't need to trade ES, but I need real-time data and I want to have it as fast as possible.\nI've tried http://www.zen-fire.com/ and it works fine, but probably something better...
I figure this perhaps the best place to ask this. What technology stack is used in Bloomberg? I'm C++ developer, and I definitely prefer C++ to C, so I don't want to touch C unless it's strictly necessary. I've had my fair share of maintaining legacy systems, and it's not something I enjoy. From my reading it seems ...
Bloomberg is known for using a variety of technologies and programming languages in its stack, with a strong emphasis on performance and reliability, which is crucial for financial applications. Here are some key components of Bloomberg's technology stack: 1. **Programming Languages**: - **C++**: This is a primary ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I figure this perhaps the best place to ask this.\nWhat technology stack is used in Bloomberg? I'm C++ developer, and I definitely prefer C++ to C, so I don't want to touch C unless it's strictly necessary. I've had my fair share of maintaining legacy systems, and it's not som...
Nowadays structured products (or packages) with complex payoff diagrams are omnipresent. Do you know of any software, add-ons, apps, code whatever, that enables you to enter a payoff diagram or a cashflow profile which gives you the basic building blocks like the underlying, zero coupon bonds and esp. all the option co...
There are several software tools and platforms available that can help you analyze and decompose structured products, including complex payoff diagrams into their underlying components such as zero-coupon bonds and options. Here are some options that you may find useful: 1. **Python Libraries**: - **QuantLib**: An ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Nowadays structured products (or packages) with complex payoff diagrams are omnipresent.\nDo you know of any software, add-ons, apps, code whatever, that enables you to enter a payoff diagram or a cashflow profile which gives you the basic building blocks like the underlying, ze...
I tried it in several symbols and timeframes with the same result: $$\frac {mean(HIGH-LOW)}{mean(|CLOSE-OPEN|)}$$ Symbol Result ------ ------ EURUSD:W1 1.9725 EURUSD:D1 2.0023 EURUSD:H1 2.1766 USDJPY:W1 1.9949 USDJPY:D1 2.0622 USDJPY:H1 2.2327 SAN.MC:D1 2.0075 BBVA.MC:D1 2....
It looks like you're calculating a ratio that compares the average range of price (defined as HIGH - LOW) to the average opening and closing price movements (defined as |CLOSE - OPEN|). The ratio you've computed can be interpreted as a measure of volatility or price action in relation to how much price tends to open an...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I tried it in several symbols and timeframes with the same result:\n$$\\frac {mean(HIGH-LOW)}{mean(|CLOSE-OPEN|)}$$\nSymbol Result\n------ ------\nEURUSD:W1 1.9725 \nEURUSD:D1 2.0023 \nEURUSD:H1 2.1766 \nUSDJPY:W1 1.9949 \nUSDJPY:D1 2.0622 \nUSDJPY:...
How does one calculate the implied liquidity of a specific option contract given a set of vanilla puts and calls with various strikes and maturities on a single underlying?
Calculating the implied liquidity of a specific option contract involves assessing various characteristics of the options market, including trading volume, open interest, bid-ask spreads, and the depth of market orders. Here’s how you can analyze implied liquidity for a specific option contract given a set of vanilla p...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "How does one calculate the implied liquidity of a specific option contract given a set of vanilla puts and calls with various strikes and maturities on a single underlying?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Calculating the implied liquidity of a specific option contra...
What programming languages are the most common in quantitative finance, and why are these languages used? Note: I do not mean, what languages are used to develop the accounting system at a hedge fund: this is specifically related to aspects of valuation and trading.
In quantitative finance, several programming languages are commonly used for valuation, trading algorithms, data analysis, and modeling. Here are the most notable ones and the reasons for their prevalence: ### 1. **Python** - **Why it's used**: - **Ease of Learning and Use**: Python's syntax is clear and concise, m...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What programming languages are the most common in quantitative finance, and why are these languages used?\nNote: I do not mean, what languages are used to develop the accounting system at a hedge fund: this is specifically related to aspects of valuation and trading.\n" }, {...
As you know, the key equation of risk neutral pricing is the following: $$\exp^{-rt} S_t = E_Q[\exp^{-rT} S_T | \mathcal{F}_t]$$ That is, discounted prices are Q-martingales. It makes real-sense for me from an economic point of view, but is there any "proof" of that? I'm not sure my question makes real sense, and an an...
Your question touches on fundamental concepts in financial mathematics, particularly in the context of risk-neutral pricing. To clarify your inquiry, let's break it down step by step. ### Key Equation and Its Economic Interpretation The equation you presented: $$\exp^{-rt} X_t = E_Q[\exp^{-rT} X_T | \mathcal{F}_t]$$...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "As you know, the key equation of risk neutral pricing is the following:\n$$\\exp^{-rt} S_t = E_Q[\\exp^{-rT} S_T | \\mathcal{F}_t]$$\nThat is, discounted prices are Q-martingales.\nIt makes real-sense for me from an economic point of view, but is there any \"proof\" of that?\nI'...
There seems to be increasing interest in risk controlled products such as volatility target indices and derivatives products on these underlyings. From a risk management perspective what are the advantages of these products?
Risk-controlled products, such as volatility target indices and derivatives linked to these underlyings, offer several advantages from a risk management perspective. Here are some key benefits: 1. **Stabilized Returns**: By targeting a specific level of volatility, these products aim to maintain more consistent risk-a...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "There seems to be increasing interest in risk controlled products such as volatility target indices and derivatives products on these underlyings. From a risk management perspective what are the advantages of these products?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "Risk-con...
If a company issues commercial paper and the bookkeeper, bank A, receives a buy order from bank B, in which bank B creates credit to buy the commercial paper, does the company has a credit in bank B or does bank B owe himself and has the asset of the commercial paper?
When bank A issues commercial paper, it is essentially a short-term debt instrument used by the company to raise funds. When bank B purchases the commercial paper from bank A, the transaction involves several steps regarding the flow of credit and ownership. 1. **Purchase of Commercial Paper**: When bank B places a bu...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "If a company issues commercial paper and the bookkeeper, bank A, receives a buy order from bank B, in which bank B creates credit to buy the commercial paper, does the company has a credit in bank B or does bank B owe himself and has the asset of the commercial paper?\n" }, ...
I've got a quanitative trading model I want to test out in the real stock market. Right now, I'm writing some code to pull "live" quotes from yahoo, feed them to my model, and keep track of the trades my model makes. However, I feel like I'm re-investing the wheel. Sites like Investopedia have free stock trading "sim...
There are a few services that provide free or low-cost APIs for stock trading simulations, but they may not meet all your requirements perfectly. Here are some popular options that you can explore: 1. **Alpaca**: - **API**: Alpaca offers a free trading API for paper trading and real trading. - **Features**: You ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I've got a quanitative trading model I want to test out in the real stock market. Right now, I'm writing some code to pull \"live\" quotes from yahoo, feed them to my model, and keep track of the trades my model makes. However, I feel like I'm re-investing the wheel. Sites lik...
I recently heard the term Sugihara Trading System. I guess it might be some trading strategy or a special model to predict trends in market data, but I couldn't find out anything about it. Does anyone know what's behind this term?
The Sugihara Trading System does not appear to be a widely recognized or established term in financial trading literature or strategies as of my last knowledge update in October 2023. It is possible that it could be a niche or proprietary trading system that has been developed more recently or is specific to a certain ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I recently heard the term Sugihara Trading System. I guess it might be some trading strategy or a special model to predict trends in market data, but I couldn't find out anything about it. Does anyone know what's behind this term?\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "The...
Some of the largest funds in the world are entirely macro-based: Soros, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater. They trade across asset classes, and seemingly with very concentrated allocations. What type of risk management framework do they adopt?
Macro hedge funds like Soros Fund Management, Brevan Howard, and Bridgewater Associates often employ sophisticated risk management frameworks that enable them to navigate the complexities of global markets and manage concentrated allocations across various asset classes. While each fund may have its unique approach, th...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Some of the largest funds in the world are entirely macro-based: Soros, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater. They trade across asset classes, and seemingly with very concentrated allocations. What type of risk management framework do they adopt? \n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value...
Me and my friends are from Europe, we went to US. At the end of the trip they bought an item worth $USD 100$, but because they were short of money, so I paid for the item first with my own $USD 100$. After we came back from Europe, they would have to pay me. They would like to pay me in EUR. What is the fair amount of ...
To determine how much EUR your friends should pay you back for the USD 100 they owe you, we need to consider the exchange rates given. 1. **Understanding the exchange rates:** - The rate at which they can buy USD with EUR is: \[ 1 EUR = \frac{1}{1.05} USD \] - This means that if they want to buy ...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "Me and my friends are from Europe, we went to US. At the end of the trip they bought an item worth $USD 100$, but because they were short of money, so I paid for the item first with my own $USD 100$.\nAfter we came back from Europe, they would have to pay me. They would like to ...
What is an efficient method of pricing callable range accruals on rate spreads? As an example: A cancellable 30 year swap which pays 6M Libor every 6M multiplied by the number of days the spread of 10-year and 2-year CMS rate is above 0, in exchange for a fixed or floating coupon. Using LMM for this is dog slow, and 1 ...
Pricing callable range accruals, especially those linked to a spread of interest rates like the difference between 10-year and 2-year Constant Maturity Swaps (CMS), can indeed be challenging due to the complexity introduced by the path dependency and the multiple underlying rates. Here are some approaches you might con...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "What is an efficient method of pricing callable range accruals on rate spreads? As an example:\nA cancellable 30 year swap which pays 6M Libor every 6M multiplied by the number of days the spread of 10-year and 2-year CMS rate is above 0, in exchange for a fixed or floating coup...
VIX (spot) has very nice features, including mean reversion. We all know that we can't trade VIX (spot). The closest we can get is using front-month future contracts. The problem I have with that is that, in practice, VIX futures are not great at tracking VIX. Is there a way to replicate tradable VIX?
Replicating a tradable version of the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index) can indeed be challenging, particularly due to the nuances of VIX futures contracts not tracking the spot VIX perfectly. Here are some strategies and alternatives you might consider to closely replicate the behavior of the VIX: 1. **VIX Futures Stra...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "VIX (spot) has very nice features, including mean reversion. We all know that we can't trade VIX (spot). The closest we can get is using front-month future contracts. The problem I have with that is that, in practice, VIX futures are not great at tracking VIX. Is there a way to ...
I am learning about quantitative finance, and I am struck by how different it is from the techniques that make it into magazines and TV, particularly technical analysis. Specifically, if they say an indicator (RSI, TRIX, etc.) can predict even short term future prices, then you should be able to run some analysis to s...
Great questions! Quantitative finance indeed emphasizes rigorous statistical methods to analyze and predict market behavior, while many popular techniques like technical analysis often lack empirical validation. Here's how you can approach your questions: ### 1. Methods to Analyze Correlation Between Indicators and Fu...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I am learning about quantitative finance, and I am struck by how different it is from the techniques that make it into magazines and TV, particularly technical analysis. Specifically, if they say an indicator (RSI, TRIX, etc.) can predict even short term future prices, then you...
I did cointegration test on two identical time series, and the result shows that they are not cointegrated, but intuitively, I think they are. Can anyone share some thoughts on this? Thanks!
When you perform a cointegration test on two identical time series and find that they are not cointegrated, it can be somewhat surprising given your intuition. Here are some considerations and thoughts to help understand this situation: 1. **Definition of Cointegration**: Cointegration implies that two or more non-sta...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "I did cointegration test on two identical time series, and the result shows that they are not cointegrated, but intuitively, I think they are.\nCan anyone share some thoughts on this? Thanks!\n" }, { "from": "gpt", "value": "When you perform a cointegration test on t...
From Optimal Trading Strategies : There are two main reasons why traders execute orders using a VWAP trading strategy. First, a VWAP strategy is the trading strategy that minimizes market impact cost. Traders executing orders utilizing VWAP strategies are interested in participating with market volumes ...
Backtesting a VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) strategy while accurately accounting for market impact can be quite challenging, as traditional backtesting often assumes that a trader's actions do not affect the market. Here are several approaches to effectively and realistically backtest a VWAP strategy while consi...
[ { "from": "human", "value": "From Optimal Trading Strategies : \n\nThere are two main reasons why traders\n execute orders using a VWAP trading\n strategy. First, a VWAP strategy is\n the trading strategy that minimizes\n market impact cost. Traders executing\n orders utilizing VWAP strategies are\n i...