{ "possessions_version": "v2", "seed": 20260910, "per_class": { "FGA_rim": { "prior_kind": "position", "shrink_m": 50.0, "winner": "lgbm", "dirichlet_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": null, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "hier_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": 64.0, "a_wing": null, "a_big": 2.0 }, "cond_logit_l2": 0.001, "inner_split": "2024-01-15", "cond_logit_features": [ "log_share", "log_exposure", "log_minutes", "is_G", "is_F", "is_C", "log_share_x_scorediff", "log_share_x_sec", "log_share_x_chance", "is_C_x_scorediff", "is_C_x_sec" ], "cond_logit_coefficients": { "log_share": 0.99474, "log_exposure": 0.06063, "log_minutes": 0.01941, "is_G": -0.27217, "is_F": -0.2247, "is_C": -0.3325, "log_share_x_scorediff": 0.00947, "log_share_x_sec": 0.00601, "log_share_x_chance": -0.0649, "is_C_x_scorediff": 0.01092, "is_C_x_sec": 0.0599 }, "lgbm_params": { "num_leaves": 15, "learning_rate": 0.08, "n_estimators": 300, "min_child_samples": 200 } }, "FGA_jump2": { "prior_kind": "league", "shrink_m": 50.0, "winner": "lgbm", "dirichlet_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": null, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "hier_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": 64.0, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "cond_logit_l2": 0.001, "inner_split": "2024-01-15", "cond_logit_features": [ "log_share", "log_exposure", "log_minutes", "is_G", "is_F", "is_C", "log_share_x_scorediff", "log_share_x_sec", "log_share_x_chance", "is_C_x_scorediff", "is_C_x_sec" ], "cond_logit_coefficients": { "log_share": 1.05434, "log_exposure": 0.06756, "log_minutes": 0.0764, "is_G": 0.08286, "is_F": 0.03601, "is_C": -0.12452, "log_share_x_scorediff": 0.02265, "log_share_x_sec": -0.04219, "log_share_x_chance": -0.19647, "is_C_x_scorediff": 0.05925, "is_C_x_sec": 0.07971 }, "lgbm_params": { "num_leaves": 15, "learning_rate": 0.08, "n_estimators": 300, "min_child_samples": 200 } }, "FGA_3": { "prior_kind": "position", "shrink_m": 25.0, "winner": "lgbm", "dirichlet_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": null, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "hier_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": null, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "cond_logit_l2": 0.001, "inner_split": "2024-01-15", "cond_logit_features": [ "log_share", "log_exposure", "log_minutes", "is_G", "is_F", "is_C", "log_share_x_scorediff", "log_share_x_sec", "log_share_x_chance", "is_C_x_scorediff", "is_C_x_sec" ], "cond_logit_coefficients": { "log_share": 1.02907, "log_exposure": 0.03924, "log_minutes": 0.01457, "is_G": -0.33295, "is_F": -0.36424, "is_C": -0.46804, "log_share_x_scorediff": 0.00853, "log_share_x_sec": -0.03192, "log_share_x_chance": -0.02447, "is_C_x_scorediff": 0.0504, "is_C_x_sec": 0.02614 }, "lgbm_params": { "num_leaves": 15, "learning_rate": 0.08, "n_estimators": 300, "min_child_samples": 200 } }, "TOV": { "prior_kind": "league", "shrink_m": 200.0, "winner": "lgbm", "dirichlet_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": null, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "hier_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": 256.0, "a_wing": null, "a_big": 64.0 }, "cond_logit_l2": 0.1, "inner_split": "2024-01-15", "cond_logit_features": [ "log_share", "log_exposure", "log_minutes", "is_G", "is_F", "is_C", "log_share_x_scorediff", "log_share_x_sec", "log_share_x_chance", "is_C_x_scorediff", "is_C_x_sec" ], "cond_logit_coefficients": { "log_share": 0.99461, "log_exposure": 0.02705, "log_minutes": 0.04233, "is_G": 0.05462, "is_F": 0.03061, "is_C": -0.0924, "log_share_x_scorediff": -0.01013, "log_share_x_sec": -0.03235, "log_share_x_chance": -0.25313, "is_C_x_scorediff": 0.01865, "is_C_x_sec": 0.08882 }, "lgbm_params": { "num_leaves": 15, "learning_rate": 0.08, "n_estimators": 300, "min_child_samples": 200 } }, "FT_trip": { "prior_kind": "position", "shrink_m": 200.0, "winner": "lgbm", "dirichlet_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": null, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "hier_alphas": { "a_between": null, "a_handler": 16.0, "a_wing": null, "a_big": null }, "cond_logit_l2": 10.0, "inner_split": "2024-01-15", "cond_logit_features": [ "log_share", "log_exposure", "log_minutes", "is_G", "is_F", "is_C", "log_share_x_scorediff", "log_share_x_sec", "log_share_x_chance", "is_C_x_scorediff", "is_C_x_sec" ], "cond_logit_coefficients": { "log_share": 0.91443, "log_exposure": 0.04198, "log_minutes": 0.08246, "is_G": 0.1291, "is_F": 0.17832, "is_C": 0.05251, "log_share_x_scorediff": -0.03616, "log_share_x_sec": 0.09323, "log_share_x_chance": 0.10642, "is_C_x_scorediff": 0.04062, "is_C_x_sec": 0.08581 }, "lgbm_params": { "num_leaves": 15, "learning_rate": 0.08, "n_estimators": 300, "min_child_samples": 200 } } } }