{
 "what": "[TBC: 22] the six cuts' shares of their own ceiling at 20k-30k steps from the first checkpoint",
 "definition": {
  "start_point": "step 1000, the first checkpoint (4.19 B tokens)",
  "window": "20k-30k steps of gap",
  "excess": "median over constructs of the change beyond the twin turnover at the pair's earlier reference (RATE_READINGS.json, fit-free primary), MULTIPLIED BACK by the B14 headroom that rate_readings.py divides the six cuts by, so that the only normalisation left is the ceiling below",
  "b14_headroom": "twin_ceiling_last_ref - median_chance_kept_fraction, per band, from B14_BANDS.json; a scalar, so it commutes with the median and with the bootstrap quantiles",
  "ceiling": "twin agreement minus chance, chance measured ACROSS the pair's two references (CEILINGS_PAIRWISE_169.json, all 169 constructs)",
  "share": "median excess / ceiling",
  "interval": "the excess's own 95% interval divided by the same ceiling; the ceiling is held fixed, being a property of the reference pair rather than of the resampled construct sample",
  "also_given": "the within-checkpoint ceiling, for comparison only"
 },
 "fixed_before_computing": true,
 "start_iter": 1000,
 "window": "20k-30k",
 "cuts": {
  "q1pct": {
   "label": "top 1% of the standardised entries",
   "n_pairs": 2,
   "n_constructs": 169,
   "median_excess_as_stored": 0.9247344857341064,
   "b14_headroom": 0.8354207448725871,
   "median_excess_raw": 0.772542372881356,
   "excess_ci95_raw": [
    0.7627118644067796,
    0.7823728813559322
   ],
   "twin_agreement": 0.8264406779661017,
   "chance_cross": 0.025423728860914707,
   "ceiling_cross": 0.801016949105187,
   "share_of_ceiling": 0.9644519678945123,
   "share_ci95": [
    0.9521794329805409,
    0.9767245028084837
   ],
   "ceiling_within": 0.7308474564804869,
   "share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0570500944227919,
   "median_twin_floor": 0.17355932203389834
  },
  "q2pct": {
   "label": "top 2%",
   "n_pairs": 2,
   "n_constructs": 169,
   "median_excess_as_stored": 0.920147532342009,
   "b14_headroom": 0.8260503221099843,
   "median_excess_raw": 0.7600881654798237,
   "excess_ci95_raw": [
    0.7426246185147508,
    0.7694133604611734
   ],
   "twin_agreement": 0.8341810783316378,
   "chance_cross": 0.04120040684938431,
   "ceiling_cross": 0.7929806714822535,
   "share_of_ceiling": 0.9585204189895997,
   "share_ci95": [
    0.9364977548905747,
    0.9702800939939334
   ],
   "ceiling_within": 0.7139708330799822,
   "share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0645927400155788,
   "median_twin_floor": 0.1658189216683622
  },
  "q5pct": {
   "label": "top 5% (the carrier set)",
   "n_pairs": 2,
   "n_constructs": 169,
   "median_excess_as_stored": 0.9133805248452099,
   "b14_headroom": 0.7936172520993805,
   "median_excess_raw": 0.7248745422487455,
   "excess_ci95_raw": [
    0.68988200189882,
    0.7345720873457209
   ],
   "twin_agreement": 0.8436186084361861,
   "chance_cross": 0.08144581690430641,
   "ceiling_cross": 0.7621727915318797,
   "share_of_ceiling": 0.9510632632159841,
   "share_ci95": [
    0.9051517051825433,
    0.9637868151516081
   ],
   "ceiling_within": 0.6736742177816222,
   "share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0760016089612625,
   "median_twin_floor": 0.15638139156381392
  },
  "abs1sd": {
   "label": "|e| >= 1 sigma0",
   "n_pairs": 2,
   "n_constructs": 169,
   "median_excess_as_stored": 0.8683994555451926,
   "b14_headroom": 0.7534391596041885,
   "median_excess_raw": 0.6542861559867048,
   "excess_ci95_raw": [
    0.6488804192472607,
    0.6630217861300515
   ],
   "twin_agreement": 0.8671750567112312,
   "chance_cross": 0.15966589003801346,
   "ceiling_cross": 0.7075091666732177,
   "share_of_ceiling": 0.9247741044306562,
   "share_ci95": [
    0.9171335861249182,
    0.937121124871992
   ],
   "ceiling_within": 0.6507786355171546,
   "share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0053897289771396,
   "median_twin_floor": 0.13282494328876882
  },
  "abs2sd": {
   "label": "|e| >= 2 sigma0",
   "n_pairs": 2,
   "n_constructs": 169,
   "median_excess_as_stored": 0.8934527755670614,
   "b14_headroom": 0.8372030187056015,
   "median_excess_raw": 0.748001360775642,
   "excess_ci95_raw": [
    0.7429478138222848,
    0.7560183416125333
   ],
   "twin_agreement": 0.856181934657271,
   "chance_cross": 0.06424073502421379,
   "ceiling_cross": 0.7919411996330572,
   "share_of_ceiling": 0.9445162862119378,
   "share_ci95": [
    0.9381350713493966,
    0.9546394883393254
   ],
   "ceiling_within": 0.7395667882587267,
   "share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0114047475506225,
   "median_twin_floor": 0.143818065342729
  },
  "abs3sd": {
   "label": "|e| >= 3 sigma0",
   "n_pairs": 2,
   "n_constructs": 169,
   "median_excess_as_stored": 0.9175206238559166,
   "b14_headroom": 0.8582168874633666,
   "median_excess_raw": 0.7874316939890711,
   "excess_ci95_raw": [
    0.7779876446925539,
    0.791728212703102
   ],
   "twin_agreement": 0.8611111111111112,
   "chance_cross": 0.03526146896183491,
   "ceiling_cross": 0.8258496421492763,
   "share_of_ceiling": 0.9534806989075852,
   "share_ci95": [
    0.9420451435540235,
    0.9586832424394189
   ],
   "ceiling_within": 0.782043933040566,
   "share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0068893328378083,
   "median_twin_floor": 0.13888888888888884
  }
 },
 "range_of_shares": [
  0.9247741044306562,
  0.9644519678945123
 ],
 "spread": 0.039677863463856045,
 "minutes": 3.205140431722005e-05,
 "provenance": {
  "inputs": [
   "validation/paper2/RATE_READINGS.json",
   "validation/paper2/CEILINGS_PAIRWISE_169.json",
   "validation/paper2/B14_BANDS.json"
  ],
  "reference": null,
  "battery_prompt_hash": "570b42db13f8fe5772b8d1a9ad7d55d6fa1279dae5948ad94e8363789bcbc1ad",
  "code_commit": "f7c2832",
  "design": "9-Paper-1/2610-18Oct_PAPER-1-Design.md sha256 47f6a664\u2026"
 }
}