import OAI.Computability.UniqueGames.Foundations.Conditioning import OAI.Computability.UniqueGames.Foundations.ValueLemmas import OAI.Computability.UniqueGames.Games.FactorizationLemmas namespace OAI section namespace UniqueGamesTheorem.Foundations.Repetition.SelectionSequence private theorem exists_unused {n : Nat} (S : Finset (Fin n)) (hcard : S.card < n) : ∃ j : Fin n, j ∉ S := by classical apply Classical.byContradiction intro h have hall : ∀ j : Fin n, j ∈ S := by intro j apply Classical.byContradiction intro hj exact h ⟨j, hj⟩ have hfull : S = Finset.univ := Finset.ext (fun j => iff_of_true (hall j) (Finset.mem_univ j)) have hbad : n < n := by simpa only [hfull, Finset.card_univ, Fintype.card_fin] using hcard exact Nat.lt_irrefl n hbad /-- Insert a chosen unused coordinate while there are coordinates remaining. -/ noncomputable def nextSet {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) (S : Finset (Fin n)) : Finset (Fin n) := if hs : S.card < n then insert (Classical.choose (witness S hs)) S else S /-- A total sequence, constant after all `n` coordinates have been selected. -/ noncomputable def selectedSet {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) : Nat → Finset (Fin n) | 0 => ∅ | m + 1 => nextSet Step witness (selectedSet Step witness m) theorem selectedSet_card {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) (m : Nat) : (selectedSet Step witness m).card = min m n := by induction m with | zero => simp [selectedSet] | succ m ih => by_cases hm : m < n · have hc : (selectedSet Step witness m).card = m := by simpa only [Nat.min_eq_left (Nat.le_of_lt hm)] using ih have hs : (selectedSet Step witness m).card < n := by simpa only [hc] using hm rw [selectedSet, nextSet, dite_eq_left hs, Finset.card_insert_of_notMem ((Classical.choose_spec (witness _ hs)).1), hc, Nat.min_eq_left (Nat.succ_le_of_lt hm)] · have hc : (selectedSet Step witness m).card = n := by simpa only [Nat.min_eq_right (Nat.le_of_not_gt hm)] using ih have hs : ¬(selectedSet Step witness m).card < n := by rw [hc] exact Nat.not_lt.mpr (Nat.le_refl n) rw [selectedSet, nextSet, dite_eq_right hs, hc, Nat.min_eq_right (Nat.le_trans (Nat.le_of_not_gt hm) (Nat.le_succ m))] theorem selectedSet_subset_succ {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) (m : Nat) : selectedSet Step witness m ⊆ selectedSet Step witness (m + 1) := by change selectedSet Step witness m ⊆ nextSet Step witness (selectedSet Step witness m) unfold nextSet split · exact Finset.subset_insert _ _ · exact le_rfl theorem selectedSet_monotone {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) : Monotone (selectedSet Step witness) := monotone_nat_of_le_succ (selectedSet_subset_succ Step witness) theorem selectedSet_univ {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) : selectedSet Step witness n = Finset.univ := by apply Finset.eq_of_subset_of_card_le (Finset.subset_univ _) simp [selectedSet_card] theorem selectedSet_step {n : Nat} (Step : Finset (Fin n) → Fin n → Prop) (witness : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ Step S j) (m : Nat) (hm : m < n) : ∃ j, j ∉ selectedSet Step witness m ∧ selectedSet Step witness (m + 1) = insert j (selectedSet Step witness m) ∧ Step (selectedSet Step witness m) j := by have hc : (selectedSet Step witness m).card = m := by rw [selectedSet_card, Nat.min_eq_left (Nat.le_of_lt hm)] have hs : (selectedSet Step witness m).card < n := by simpa only [hc] using hm let j := Classical.choose (witness (selectedSet Step witness m) hs) have hj := Classical.choose_spec (witness (selectedSet Step witness m) hs) refine ⟨j, hj.1, ?_, hj.2⟩ simp only [selectedSet, nextSet, dite_eq_left hs, j] /-- The multiplicative scalar inequality for one actual selected-set update. -/ def SetStep {n : Nat} (P : Finset (Fin n) → ℝ) (v ell : ℝ) (S : Finset (Fin n)) (j : Fin n) : Prop := P (insert j S) ≤ P S * (v + 15 * Real.sqrt (((S.card : ℝ) * ell + logTwo (1 / P S)) / ((n : ℝ) - S.card))) /-- At zero success, any unused coordinate is safe and no conditioning occurs. -/ theorem totalSetStep {n : Nat} (P : Finset (Fin n) → ℝ) (v ell : ℝ) (hnonneg : ∀ S, 0 ≤ P S) (hanti : Antitone P) (hpositive : ∀ S, S.card < n → 0 < P S → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ SetStep P v ell S j) : ∀ S, S.card < n → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ SetStep P v ell S j := by intro S hcard by_cases hp : 0 < P S · exact hpositive S hcard hp · obtain ⟨j, hj⟩ := exists_unused S hcard have hz : P S = 0 := le_antisymm (le_of_not_gt hp) (hnonneg S) have hnext : P (insert j S) = 0 := le_antisymm ((hanti (Finset.subset_insert j S)).trans (le_of_eq hz)) (hnonneg (insert j S)) refine ⟨j, hj, ?_⟩ simpa only [SetStep, hnext, hz, zero_mul] using (le_refl (0 : ℝ)) /-- Construct the scalar sequence from actual selected-set probabilities. -/ theorem exists_scalar_sequence {n : Nat} (P : Finset (Fin n) → ℝ) (v ell : ℝ) (hempty : P ∅ = 1) (hnonneg : ∀ S, 0 ≤ P S) (hanti : Antitone P) (hpositive : ∀ S, S.card < n → 0 < P S → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ SetStep P v ell S j) : ∃ p : Nat → ℝ, p 0 = 1 ∧ (∀ m, 0 ≤ p m) ∧ Antitone p ∧ ScalarRecurrence p n v ell ∧ p n = P Finset.univ := by let witness := totalSetStep P v ell hnonneg hanti hpositive let sets := selectedSet (SetStep P v ell) witness let p := fun m => P (sets m) refine ⟨p, ?_, ?_, ?_, ?_, ?_⟩ · change P (selectedSet (SetStep P v ell) witness 0) = 1 simpa only [selectedSet] using hempty · intro m exact hnonneg (sets m) · intro i j hij exact hanti (selectedSet_monotone (SetStep P v ell) witness hij) · intro m hm obtain ⟨j, _, hnext, hbound⟩ := selectedSet_step (SetStep P v ell) witness m hm have hc : (selectedSet (SetStep P v ell) witness m).card = m := by rw [selectedSet_card, Nat.min_eq_left (Nat.le_of_lt hm)] change P (selectedSet (SetStep P v ell) witness (m + 1)) ≤ _ rw [hnext] simpa only [SetStep, hc] using hbound · change P (selectedSet (SetStep P v ell) witness n) = P Finset.univ rw [selectedSet_univ] open UniqueGamesTheorem.Foundations.Games section ActualGame variable {Q₁ Q₂ A₁ A₂ : Type*} variable [Fintype Q₁] [Fintype Q₂] [Fintype A₁] [Fintype A₂] variable [Nonempty A₁] [Nonempty A₂] def ConditionalCoordinateBound (G : Game Q₁ Q₂ A₁ A₂) (n : Nat) (strategy : Strategy (Fin n → Q₁) (Fin n → Q₂) (Fin n → A₁) (Fin n → A₂)) (ell : ℝ) : Prop := ∀ (S : Finset (Fin n)) (_hcard : S.card < n) (hp : 0 < G.selectedSuccess strategy S), ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ (((G.repetition n).questions.condition (G.selectedWins strategy S) hp).probability (G.coordinateWin strategy j)) ≤ G.value + 15 * Real.sqrt (((S.card : ℝ) * ell + logTwo (1 / G.selectedSuccess strategy S)) / ((n : ℝ) - S.card)) /-- Apply the proved scalar estimate to the success of an actual repeated-game strategy. The conditional-coordinate bound is the sole game-theoretic premise. -/ theorem repetition_success_le_of_conditionalCoordinateBound (G : Game Q₁ Q₂ A₁ A₂) (n : Nat) (strategy : Strategy (Fin n → Q₁) (Fin n → Q₂) (Fin n → A₁) (Fin n → A₂)) {v ell : ℝ} (hvalue : G.value ≤ v) (hv1 : v < 1) (hell : 1 ≤ ell) (hcoordinate : ConditionalCoordinateBound G n strategy ell) : (G.repetition n).success strategy ≤ (1 - (1 - v)^3 / 6000)^((n : ℝ) / ell) := by have hpositive : ∀ S : Finset (Fin n), S.card < n → 0 < G.selectedSuccess strategy S → ∃ j, j ∉ S ∧ SetStep (G.selectedSuccess strategy) v ell S j := by intro S hcard hp obtain ⟨j, hj, hbound⟩ := hcoordinate S hcard hp refine ⟨j, hj, ?_⟩ change G.selectedSuccess strategy (insert j S) ≤ _ rw [G.selectedSuccess_insert strategy S j hp] exact mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left (hbound.trans (add_le_add hvalue (le_refl _))) (le_of_lt hp) obtain ⟨p, hp0, hpnonneg, hpmono, hrec, hpn⟩ := exists_scalar_sequence (G.selectedSuccess strategy) v ell (G.selectedSuccess_empty strategy) (G.selectedSuccess_nonnegative strategy) (G.selectedSuccess_antitone strategy) hpositive have hbound := scalar_bound_6000 p n (G.value_nonnegative.trans hvalue) hv1 hell hp0 hpnonneg hpmono hrec rw [hpn, G.selectedSuccess_univ strategy] at hbound exact hbound end ActualGame end UniqueGamesTheorem.Foundations.Repetition.SelectionSequence end end OAI