import OAI.Probability.PosteriorReplicas.Model namespace OAI open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Set Filter open scoped ENNReal NNReal RealInnerProductSpace noncomputable section universe u namespace PosteriorRegression structure Learner (d M T : ℕ) (Ω : Type u) where initialChoice : Ω → Bool × State M transition : ℕ → Ω → State M → (Vector d × ℝ) → Bool × State M output : ℕ → Ω → State M → UnitSphere d namespace Learner def start {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} (L : Learner d M T Ω) (ω : Ω) : RunStatus M := let a := L.initialChoice ω if a.1 then .inr (0, a.2) else .inl a.2 def run {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} (L : Learner d M T Ω) (s : UnitSphere d) (ω : Ω) (x : Samples d T) : ℕ → RunStatus M | 0 => L.start ω | n + 1 => match L.run s ω x n with | .inr done => .inr done | .inl state => if hn : n < T then let row := x ⟨n, hn⟩ let a := L.transition (n + 1) ω state (row, ⟪row, s.val⟫) if a.1 then .inr (n + 1, a.2) else .inl a.2 else .inl state def terminal {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} (L : Learner d M T Ω) (s : UnitSphere d) (ω : Ω) (x : Samples d T) : ℕ × State M := match L.run s ω x T with | .inl state => (T, state) | .inr done => done def estimate {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} (L : Learner d M T Ω) (s : UnitSphere d) (ω : Ω) (x : Samples d T) : UnitSphere d := let a := L.terminal s ω x L.output a.1 ω a.2 structure Admissible {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (L : Learner d M T Ω) (ρ : Measure Ω) : Prop where initialChoice : AEMeasurable L.initialChoice ρ transition : ∀ t a, AEMeasurable (fun z : Ω × (Vector d × ℝ) => L.transition t z.1 a z.2) (ρ.prod (observationReference d)) output : ∀ t a, AEMeasurable (fun ω => L.output t ω a) ρ fixed_experiment : ∀ s, AEMeasurable (fun z : Ω × Samples d T => L.estimate s z.1 z.2) (ρ.prod (sampleLaw d T)) uniform_experiment : AEMeasurable (fun z : UnitSphere d × (Ω × Samples d T) => L.estimate z.1 z.2.1 z.2.2) ((uniformSphere d).prod (ρ.prod (sampleLaw d T))) def success {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (L : Learner d M T Ω) (ρ : Measure Ω) (ε : ℝ) (s : UnitSphere d) : ℝ≥0∞ := (ρ.prod (sampleLaw d T)) {z | angularError s (L.estimate s z.1 z.2) ≤ ε} def uniformSuccess {d M T : ℕ} {Ω : Type u} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (L : Learner d M T Ω) (ρ : Measure Ω) (ε : ℝ) : ℝ≥0∞ := ((uniformSphere d).prod (ρ.prod (sampleLaw d T))) {z | angularError z.1 (L.estimate z.1 z.2.1 z.2.2) ≤ ε} end Learner def SubquadraticMemory : Prop := ∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧ ∀ M : ℕ → ℕ, Asymptotics.IsLittleO atTop (fun d => (M d : ℝ)) (fun d => (d : ℝ) ^ 2) → ∃ d₀ : ℕ, ∀ d : ℕ, d₀ ≤ d → ∀ T : ℕ, ∀ ε : ℝ, 0 < ε → ε ≤ 1 / 10 → ∀ (Ω : Type u) [MeasurableSpace Ω] (ρ : Measure Ω), IsProbabilityMeasure ρ → ∀ L : Learner d (M d) T Ω, L.Admissible ρ → ((2 / 3 : ℝ≥0∞) ≤ L.uniformSuccess ρ ε ∨ ∀ s, (2 / 3 : ℝ≥0∞) ≤ L.success ρ ε s) → c * (d : ℝ) * Real.log (1 / ε) ≤ (T : ℝ) def FixedQuadraticMemory : Prop := ∀ A₀ : ℝ, 0 < A₀ → ∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧ ∃ d₀ : ℕ, ∀ d : ℕ, d₀ ≤ d → ∀ M T : ℕ, (M : ℝ) ≤ A₀ * (d : ℝ) ^ 2 → ∀ ε : ℝ, 0 < ε → ε ≤ 1 / 10 → ∀ (Ω : Type u) [MeasurableSpace Ω] (ρ : Measure Ω), IsProbabilityMeasure ρ → ∀ L : Learner d M T Ω, L.Admissible ρ → (2 / 3 : ℝ≥0∞) ≤ L.uniformSuccess ρ ε → c * (d : ℝ) * Real.log (1 / ε) ≤ (T : ℝ) open scoped Topology end PosteriorRegression end end OAI