{ "schema": "deepmind-site-import-v1", "status": "complete_verified", "cohort": { "storms": 270, "daily_issues": 1473, "sha256": "965184f1e5ab3fcb52e304f39b38583a14f753870aa2295f2d01942a441dcfd6", "leads_hours": [ 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48, 54, 60, 66, 72, 78, 84, 90, 96, 102, 108, 114, 120 ] }, "models": [ { "key": "v11", "version": "1.1", "member_count": null, "member_policy": "Existing frozen weighted-route reference", "checkpoint_sha256": null }, { "key": "v12", "version": "1.2", "member_count": 50, "member_policy": "Existing 50-member mean", "checkpoint_sha256": "f194a23d3f91ea76ad776dfad942fabd669eeae8b3fd665815463095367e9ee0" }, { "key": "deepmind", "version": "deepmind", "member_count": 1, "member_policy": "One official Mini member, seed 0", "checkpoint_sha256": "a1bb151457077248d70a458b1a7b19deacd2926fbcb46eee4ff2691444e3596e" } ], "metrics": [ { "key": "mean_track_error_km", "title": "Track position error", "unit": "km", "higher_is_better": false, "values": { "1.1": 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855.8112853459712, 927.6904921578597, 1005.7269183530368, 1082.2539219837458 ] } }, "pressure": { "JMA": { "daily_cases": 0, "storms": 0, "common_lead_points": 0, "models": { "1.1": { "mae_hpa": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 } }, "1.2": { "mae_hpa": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 } }, "deepmind": { "mae_hpa": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 } } } }, "USA": { "daily_cases": 0, "storms": 0, "common_lead_points": 0, "models": { "1.1": { "mae_hpa": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 } }, "1.2": { "mae_hpa": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": null, "storms": 0, "daily_cases": 0 } }, "deepmind": { "mae_hpa": { 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"storms": 40 }, "direction_error_deg": { "value": 34.679830192136706, "storms": 40 }, "shape_similarity": { "value": 0.9036877033093333, "storms": 40 }, "track_error_by_lead_km": [ 49.81092577486012, 86.26111562439522, 117.00473218410767, 148.14453977731517, 185.93076702959854, 226.4708651852496, 270.27841049462984, 310.6651454607977, 353.022021633789, 402.7247690307546, 453.72423143819543, 506.6709895950815, 561.790377991463, 617.5201178424808, 680.4434266079353, 750.6985655911949, 832.166881859046, 910.1899090881452, 998.2795623316731, 1081.45675906658 ] }, "deepmind": { "mean_track_error_km": { "value": 288.51483990857145, "storms": 40 }, "track_error_120h_km": { "value": 742.426658041413, "storms": 40 }, "direction_error_deg": { "value": 31.155756137737363, "storms": 40 }, "shape_similarity": { "value": 0.9451352628980612, "storms": 40 }, "track_error_by_lead_km": [ 54.38085398237462, 57.28419688409821, 66.92670435931014, 87.08275145846693, 95.26785400498491, 101.13835495815766, 122.41853347063868, 148.10397905590278, 164.7843120732874, 209.3113782592264, 251.62393210349515, 280.4267975225144, 328.6794825177443, 376.2715872727139, 420.82504602320796, 472.8578209865762, 530.5492246453126, 599.3154715342171, 660.6218590177866, 742.426658041413 ] } }, "pressure": { "JMA": { "daily_cases": 134, "storms": 40, "common_lead_points": 2637, "models": { "1.1": { "mae_hpa": { "value": 13.53233861138585, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": 0.7074066420243609, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 } }, "1.2": { "mae_hpa": { "value": 12.837077366789085, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": 0.7118461112422476, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 } }, "deepmind": { "mae_hpa": { "value": 10.197678417354012, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": 0.8087969164941555, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 } } } }, "USA": { "daily_cases": 134, "storms": 40, "common_lead_points": 2325, "models": { "1.1": { "mae_hpa": { "value": 12.835629459598886, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": 0.7236794525870405, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 131 } }, "1.2": { "mae_hpa": { "value": 12.552942457392373, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": 0.6636769485468179, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 131 } }, "deepmind": { "mae_hpa": { "value": 11.546903198440878, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 134 }, "curve_similarity": { "value": 0.7445409788756472, "storms": 40, "daily_cases": 131 } } } } } } }, "interpretation": "Development comparison: 1.2 reference is 50-member input-perturbed mean; Mini is one member, different weather source. Historical fitting-year overlap; recent 2024+ reported separately.", "aggregation": "Same frozen scorer: leads per day; days within storm; equal storms. Common three-way moving directions and pressure-valid leads; separate JMA/USA labels.", "pressure_scope": "Native matched subset, common three-way leads. Missing is null, never zero.", "verification_sha256": "8f29a767ab5db61cf6773f5806cc110789329b04db48361715e5b4c295545c89", "case_manifest_sha256": "30d35cfb79e809227fd0d255f9b5173ad18e781c7450ed4bbf0211553f8e63bd", "canary": { "wp_pressure_mean_abs_difference_hpa": 0.00025739270264116574, "wp_pressure_max_abs_difference_hpa": 0.04547119140625, "wp_pressure_max_abs_difference_hpa_by_lead": [ 0.00030517578125, 0.000244140625, 0.000244140625, 0.00018310546875, 0.00030517578125, 0.00054931640625, 0.00079345703125, 0.0009765625, 0.002685546875, 0.00341796875, 0.0032958984375, 0.0048828125, 0.004638671875, 0.0032958984375, 0.00543212890625, 0.00787353515625, 0.00836181640625, 0.023681640625, 0.04547119140625, 0.042724609375 ], "field_gate_limits_hpa": { "mean": 0.01, "max": 0.1 }, "field_gate_passed": true, "tracker_max_difference_km": 0.14586496919052705, "central_pressure_max_abs_difference_hpa": 0.07400935954797205, "pressure_masks_match": true, "cpu_numerical_equivalence": true, "status": "cuda_canary_passed", "tested_at_utc": "2026-10-04T12:55:06.985459+00:00", "validation_protocol": { "id": "same-runtime-strict-fp32-cpu-cuda-v2", "primary_reference": "One fresh CPU rollout in the same pinned WSL runtime and inference code path", "legacy_reference": "Bundled Mac CPU output retained as a separate cross-runtime diagnostic, not the primary gate", "field_gate_limits_hpa": { "mean": 0.01, "max": 0.1 }, "jax": "0.4.38", "jaxlib": "0.4.38", "case_index": 0, "cpu_counts_as_benchmark": false, "tolerances_changed": false }, "runtime_match": true, "input_bytes_match": true, "protocol_match": true, "case_index": 0, "checkpoint_sha256": "a1bb151457077248d70a458b1a7b19deacd2926fbcb46eee4ff2691444e3596e", "gpu_verified_steps": 20, "protocol_sha256": "91b31582f24ffdd4f2309eddb0cc68498a2c31cab7cbabaf06f43dfbff413606", "cpu_forecast_sha256": "a8700f10b93dcf76b20439ed0cf71c312274398813af4ef8c6df51cbc75b0964", "cuda_forecast_sha256": "0338d2b907bf0f4a605883b4c778bf961fe7406b6916161317b25a39b66fa68c", "cpu_metadata_identity": "a2b686e98309ebcda11482f521b68cc8657171d08606d24e0c303484c446cddb", "cuda_metadata_identity": "5eb223c4c969f2df64b29289ef3e96a467b418721ee7071faa81e64c59fbb1a1", "cpu_input_state_sha256": "f0e8ca0d826e52e76a2b090084a09845a58871d3e6e02b8513b7a4f9cbf8d6c2", "cuda_input_state_sha256": "f0e8ca0d826e52e76a2b090084a09845a58871d3e6e02b8513b7a4f9cbf8d6c2", "cpu_device": { "backend": "cpu", "device_kind": "cpu", "platform": "cpu", "platform_version": "cpu", "jax": "0.4.38", "jaxlib": "0.4.38", "python": "3.12.3", "gpu_matmul_verified": false, "numerics": { "matmul_precision": "highest", "NVIDIA_TF32_OVERRIDE": "0", "jax_enable_x64": false, "jax_threefry_partitionable": true } }, "device": { "backend": "cuda", "device_kind": "NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070", "platform": "gpu", "platform_version": "PJRT C API\ncuda 12030", "jax": "0.4.38", "jaxlib": "0.4.38", "python": "3.12.3", "gpu_matmul_verified": true, "numerics": { "matmul_precision": "highest", "NVIDIA_TF32_OVERRIDE": "0", "jax_enable_x64": false, "jax_threefry_partitionable": true } }, "cpu_predictions_reused_as_cuda": false, "legacy_cross_runtime_comparison": { "wp_pressure_mean_abs_difference_hpa": 0.0074994690769043465, "wp_pressure_max_abs_difference_hpa": 0.59765625, "wp_pressure_max_abs_difference_hpa_by_lead": [ 0.03729248046875, 0.00933837890625, 0.0706787109375, 0.03485107421875, 0.0855712890625, 0.05712890625, 0.0518798828125, 0.04205322265625, 0.0977783203125, 0.07293701171875, 0.05584716796875, 0.0611572265625, 0.145751953125, 0.1763916015625, 0.19189453125, 0.26953125, 0.20556640625, 0.29156494140625, 0.5030517578125, 0.59765625 ], "field_gate_limits_hpa": { "mean": 0.01, "max": 0.1 }, "field_gate_passed": false, "tracker_max_difference_km": 35.802407171684315, "central_pressure_max_abs_difference_hpa": 1.597311381356235, "pressure_masks_match": true, "cpu_numerical_equivalence": false, "gating": false, "reference_sha256": "982501139e39ebf6e6308c23d7abf3131c221f0ce489000400cafcaa65b06eb4", "input_bytes_match": true, "note": "The older Mac implementation/runtime differs. A failed legacy comparison remains failed; it is not numerical-equivalence certification." } }, "published_to_site": false, "integration_note": "Import after independent review into the EXISTING site. The current frontend explicitly suppresses DeepMind until its verified import adapter is updated." }