{ "model": "frozen Trackformer 1.2 pressure + separate experimental structure candidate", "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "storm_id": "2016253N13144", "issue_time_utc": "2016-09-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_members": 50, "checkpoint_sha256": "f194a23d3f91ea76ad776dfad942fabd669eeae8b3fd665815463095367e9ee0", "source_file_sha256": { "weather-history.npz": "262bdd148cbfcc5a9e2d03809d5a8ae4f51cedaba00607d66b59e8cb44860d21", "model-inputs.npz": "5a65f65e765edd48adfa45938d4d452fbec001f7e567afe1b930b5d44e14f9e6", "ensemble-members.npz": "d04b729f31733e63f937ad6a523e8a034cc9e93c6b2775dc1d18ceeb2ad9987b", "meranti_video.npz": "565343166656155e8f227372cce2947536afe83593820c89790606e5ac909baf", "meranti_video.json": "0f4a9461318bef6fc116776c2ba0a1b6f900db449e5619977b8c8041114c31db", "meranti_coastlines.json": "2af08a831beff87de1847e3c5e34faf29aabcd3965d81ffc18fedc6f18a4076d" }, "observed_csv_sha256": "4348af2679b4be0d53ec630bccda759044663a1f57e2bbd5c1d19428aab562fc", "future_labels_used_for_diagnostics": false, "initial": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "storm_id": "2016253N13144", "issue_time_utc": "2016-09-10T00:00:00Z", "input_wind_kt": 35.0, "input_model_pressure_hpa": 1004.0, "ambient_pressure_hpa": 1010.0, "pressure_deficit_hpa": 6.0, "rmw_persistence_km": 74.08, "native_quadrant_radii_km": { "r34_NE": 92.60000000000001, "r34_SE": 129.64000000000001, "r34_SW": 74.08, "r34_NW": 74.08, "r50_NE": null, "r50_SE": null, "r50_SW": null, "r50_NW": null, "r64_NE": null, "r64_SE": null, "r64_SW": null, "r64_NW": null }, "holland_inspired_tail_b": 2.5, "source_agency": "jtwc_wp", "source_track_type": "main", "usa_reference_center": [ 14.8, 139.7 ], "model_origin": [ 14.5, 140.0 ], "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "mixed_agency_initialization": "USA 1-minute wind/radii; model TOKYO pressure. No conversion between wind periods.", "calibration": "none; initialization is issue assimilation, not future-target fitting" }, "initial_ambient": { "cells": 25, "candidate_cells": 25, "quadrant_cells": { "NE": 8, "SE": 6, "SW": 5, "NW": 6 }, "annulus_km": [ 600, 1000 ], "statistic": "median_available_physical_cells", "value_hpa": 1010.0, "status": "available" }, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "points": [ { "lead_hours": 6, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-10T06:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 40.56985957083135, "p10": 40.06417720968895, "p90": 41.008438972160846, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 104.2117422412441, "p10": 103.17192499008739, "p90": 105.11268776529992, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 145.89643913774177, "p10": 144.44069498612237, "p90": 147.1577628714199, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 85.3253238787195, "p10": 84.47395394840743, "p90": 86.06298997069582, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 85.3253238787195, "p10": 84.47395394840743, "p90": 86.06298997069582, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 12, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-10T12:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 47.23898297424208, "p10": 46.65684287836224, "p90": 47.96574913706004, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 117.70447755413704, "p10": 116.54370191318907, "p90": 119.15205488226775, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 164.78626857579184, "p10": 163.1611826784647, "p90": 166.81287683517485, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 96.37275467511954, "p10": 95.42234778829165, "p90": 97.55798583723094, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 96.37275467511954, "p10": 95.42234778829165, "p90": 97.55798583723094, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 18, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-10T18:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 53.30336902718364, "p10": 52.71521497661506, "p90": 54.05718749558815, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 129.64544208390555, "p10": 128.5006527364064, "p90": 131.11105339135824, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 181.5036189174677, "p10": 179.90091383096896, "p90": 183.55547474790154, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 106.1496439585573, "p10": 105.21232615014615, "p90": 107.34964078040512, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 106.1496439585573, "p10": 105.21232615014615, "p90": 107.34964078040512, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 95.22793857551062, "p10": 94.38706111839961, "p90": 96.30446808027604, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 133.31911400571482, "p10": 132.14188556575948, "p90": 134.82625531238645, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 77.96966566827494, "p10": 77.28118143581467, "p90": 78.85109444667948, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 77.96966566827494, "p10": 77.28118143581467, "p90": 78.85109444667948, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 0.0, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 0.0, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 24, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-11T00:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 64.22690247912742, "p10": 63.405659288111714, "p90": 65.07899140776867, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 150.49660865752196, "p10": 148.9563318135483, "p90": 152.09299149728477, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 210.6952521205308, "p10": 208.53886453896763, "p90": 212.93018809619872, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 123.22192874028912, "p10": 121.96079810617398, "p90": 124.52899721364668, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 123.22192874028912, "p10": 121.96079810617398, "p90": 124.52899721364668, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 110.54366103966797, "p10": 109.41228776244719, "p90": 111.71624562547662, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 154.7611254555352, "p10": 153.17720286742608, "p90": 156.40274387566726, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 90.50970147984017, "p10": 89.58336833128654, "p90": 91.46977716236455, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 90.50970147984017, "p10": 89.58336833128654, "p90": 91.46977716236455, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 51.08514087095777, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 84.25473270580885, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 57.41547302705215, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 102.29972001221482, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 47.77543865174226, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 75.07747280611476, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 47.77543865174226, "p10": 0.0, "p90": 75.07747280611476, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 30, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-11T06:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 74.09823506793701, "p10": 73.02406677608307, "p90": 75.09541627143719, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 168.73275508871728, "p10": 166.77438890426006, "p90": 170.54826047092413, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 236.22585712420417, "p10": 233.4841444659641, "p90": 238.7675646592938, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 138.15311659951746, "p10": 136.5496674548412, "p90": 139.6395957755565, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 138.15311659951746, "p10": 136.5496674548412, "p90": 139.6395957755565, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 123.93858340863159, "p10": 122.50011267087012, "p90": 125.27211918313583, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 173.51401677208426, "p10": 171.5001577392182, "p90": 175.38096685639016, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 101.47704608882214, "p10": 100.2992711188439, "p90": 102.5689035841131, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 101.47704608882214, "p10": 100.2992711188439, "p90": 102.5689035841131, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 101.72754230037073, "p10": 100.54685999144833, "p90": 102.82209504721527, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 142.41855922051903, "p10": 140.76560398802766, "p90": 143.95093306610138, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 83.29133845657933, "p10": 82.32463261096105, "p90": 84.1875241034007, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 83.29133845657933, "p10": 82.32463261096105, "p90": 84.1875241034007, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 36, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-11T12:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 88.39234665333719, "p10": 87.2923608506073, "p90": 89.29278211652155, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 194.30579319657184, "p10": 192.37008740229865, "p90": 195.88881019701876, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 272.0281104752005, "p10": 269.3181223632181, "p90": 274.24433427582625, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 159.0915225045282, "p10": 157.50662698049098, "p90": 160.38764744557346, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 159.0915225045282, "p10": 157.50662698049098, "p90": 160.38764744557346, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 142.72264294038035, "p10": 141.30081684673328, "p90": 143.88540997067048, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 199.8117001165325, "p10": 197.8211435854266, "p90": 201.43957395893864, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 116.85684810377478, "p10": 115.69270124920239, "p90": 117.80888547807875, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 116.85684810377478, "p10": 115.69270124920239, "p90": 117.80888547807875, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 117.14530937528127, "p10": 115.97828882278412, "p90": 118.0996968550003, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 164.00343312539374, "p10": 162.36960435189778, "p90": 165.33957559700042, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 95.91492521235999, "p10": 94.95940518675266, "p90": 96.69634791062282, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 95.91492521235999, "p10": 94.95940518675266, "p90": 96.69634791062282, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 42, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-11T18:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 101.69655681596605, "p10": 100.80263146095031, "p90": 102.7042133510193, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 217.37009600556513, "p10": 215.8410460218834, "p90": 219.0923227335286, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 304.31813440779115, "p10": 302.1774644306368, "p90": 306.7292518269401, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 177.97585420160783, "p10": 176.72391577050115, "p90": 179.38595972518584, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 177.97585420160783, "p10": 176.72391577050115, "p90": 179.38595972518584, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 159.66397135021614, "p10": 158.54084449296275, "p90": 160.92899153470876, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 223.52955989030258, "p10": 221.95718229014784, "p90": 225.30058814859225, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 130.72787935626727, "p10": 129.808298119153, "p90": 131.76363842365797, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 130.72787935626727, "p10": 129.808298119153, "p90": 131.76363842365797, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 131.05058128527162, "p10": 130.1287300607564, "p90": 132.08889712517848, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 183.47081379938027, "p10": 182.18022208505897, "p90": 184.92445597524986, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 107.3001281062429, "p10": 106.54534507884019, "p90": 108.15026872785694, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 107.3001281062429, "p10": 106.54534507884019, "p90": 108.15026872785694, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 48, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-12T00:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 115.6814847493877, "p10": 114.90031971347966, "p90": 116.38885034164306, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 240.972046491686, "p10": 239.6699255083736, "p90": 242.15065766220837, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 337.36086508836047, "p10": 335.5378957117231, "p90": 339.01092072709173, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 197.30039504591912, "p10": 196.234259001737, "p90": 198.2654051080203, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 197.30039504591912, "p10": 196.234259001737, "p90": 198.2654051080203, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 177.0002159186905, "p10": 176.0437742958797, "p90": 177.86593638172283, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 247.8003022861667, "p10": 246.46128401423155, "p90": 249.012310934412, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 144.92225564086536, "p10": 144.13915107431373, "p90": 145.63108055164815, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 144.92225564086536, "p10": 144.13915107431373, "p90": 145.63108055164815, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 145.27999640497217, "p10": 144.49495874384664, "p90": 145.99057105090833, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 203.39199496696102, "p10": 202.29294224138528, "p90": 204.38679947127164, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 118.95072934926363, "p10": 118.30796499995006, "p90": 119.53252570445895, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 118.95072934926363, "p10": 118.30796499995006, "p90": 119.53252570445895, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 54, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-12T06:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 125.77837246127169, "p10": 125.05592272248738, "p90": 126.46900229313772, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 257.65621700827035, "p10": 256.47200156655316, "p90": 258.7878151535587, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 360.7187038115785, "p10": 359.06080219317437, "p90": 362.3029412149822, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 210.96087343692258, "p10": 209.99127477238065, "p90": 211.88739070043565, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 210.96087343692258, "p10": 209.99127477238065, "p90": 211.88739070043565, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 189.25517173972415, "p10": 188.38533479419516, "p90": 190.08635991679816, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 264.9572404356138, "p10": 263.73946871187326, "p90": 266.1209038835175, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 154.95623119928615, "p10": 154.24403584104027, "p90": 155.63678215148911, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 154.95623119928615, "p10": 154.24403584104027, "p90": 155.63678215148911, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 155.33874084424858, "p10": 154.62478743089562, "p90": 156.0209717373038, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 217.474237181948, "p10": 216.4747024032539, "p90": 218.42936043222534, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 127.18651553454488, "p10": 126.60195274998233, "p90": 127.74510490900568, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 127.18651553454488, "p10": 126.60195274998233, "p90": 127.74510490900568, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 60, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-12T12:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 132.41123620261155, "p10": 131.95006069945484, "p90": 133.00101121103611, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 268.4702112420642, "p10": 267.72210164865334, "p90": 269.4266216053616, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 375.85829573888986, "p10": 374.81094230811465, "p90": 377.1972702475063, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 219.81503459550925, "p10": 219.20250579614617, "p90": 220.5981135677464, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 219.81503459550925, "p10": 219.20250579614617, "p90": 220.5981135677464, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 197.1983308828367, "p10": 196.6488249899649, "p90": 197.90083909188064, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 276.0776632359714, "p10": 275.30835498595087, "p90": 277.0611747286329, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 161.4598421353488, "p10": 161.00992385095802, "p90": 162.03503394363244, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 161.4598421353488, "p10": 161.00992385095802, "p90": 162.03503394363244, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 161.8584059518077, "p10": 161.40737704358534, "p90": 162.43501762176888, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 226.60176833253078, "p10": 225.97032786101946, "p90": 227.40902467047644, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 132.52461395723014, "p10": 132.15532555608578, "p90": 132.99672560639337, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 132.52461395723014, "p10": 132.15532555608578, "p90": 132.99672560639337, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 66, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-12T18:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 134.86092565295118, "p10": 134.31239569713082, "p90": 135.3805367651739, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 272.4364105365859, "p10": 271.54976260604997, "p90": 273.2760277276711, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 381.41097475122035, "p10": 380.16966764847, "p90": 382.5864388187395, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 223.06243486053117, "p10": 222.33647519214523, "p90": 223.7498872264808, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 223.06243486053117, "p10": 222.33647519214523, "p90": 223.7498872264808, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 200.1116070977654, "p10": 199.46034120434092, "p90": 200.72832769367994, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 280.1562499368715, "p10": 279.2444776860773, "p90": 281.0196587711519, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 163.84514182654405, "p10": 163.3119056278922, "p90": 164.35009341316345, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 163.84514182654405, "p10": 163.3119056278922, "p90": 164.35009341316345, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 164.2495937581884, "p10": 163.71504126533245, "p90": 164.75579181841283, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 229.9494312614638, "p10": 229.2010577714654, "p90": 230.65810854577796, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 134.48244394496768, "p10": 134.04476903806966, "p90": 134.89690312688444, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 134.48244394496768, "p10": 134.04476903806966, "p90": 134.89690312688444, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 72, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-13T00:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 136.77460049203538, "p10": 136.25304926558675, "p90": 137.31942326080207, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 275.5247334215917, "p10": 274.68410903753903, "p90": 276.4026023248854, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 385.73462679022833, "p10": 384.55775265255465, "p90": 386.96364325483955, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 225.591057304969, "p10": 224.9027802808348, "p90": 226.3098289796925, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 225.591057304969, "p10": 224.9027802808348, "p90": 226.3098289796925, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 202.38006032888111, "p10": 201.76259992361804, "p90": 203.02487779917908, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 283.33208446043363, "p10": 282.46763989306527, "p90": 284.2348289188507, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 165.70248057250424, "p10": 165.1969232530671, "p90": 166.23043700344527, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 165.70248057250424, "p10": 165.1969232530671, "p90": 166.23043700344527, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 166.11151734709944, "p10": 165.6047120588051, "p90": 166.64077703913162, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 232.55612428593923, "p10": 231.84659688232713, "p90": 233.29708785478425, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 136.0069289007367, "p10": 135.59197253941747, "p90": 136.44027022741807, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 136.0069289007367, "p10": 135.59197253941747, "p90": 136.44027022741807, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 78, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-13T06:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 137.85199679195318, "p10": 137.18429268465422, "p90": 138.610019989084, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 277.2595593377229, "p10": 276.1849832784492, "p90": 278.4788712902815, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 388.163383072812, "p10": 386.65897658982885, "p90": 389.8704198063941, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 227.01147865081333, "p10": 226.13164929264374, "p90": 228.00981324366964, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 227.01147865081333, "p10": 226.13164929264374, "p90": 228.00981324366964, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 203.65433494374673, "p10": 202.86503096728296, "p90": 204.54995118644885, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 285.1160689212454, "p10": 284.01104335419615, "p90": 286.3699316610283, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 166.7458168788116, "p10": 166.09955940357793, "p90": 167.47911952145137, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 166.7458168788116, "p10": 166.09955940357793, "p90": 167.47911952145137, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.1574291303464, "p10": 166.50957636775, "p90": 167.89254193145035, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 234.02040078248493, "p10": 233.11340691484997, "p90": 235.0495587040305, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 136.86328884381803, "p10": 136.33284721022267, "p90": 137.46517627504804, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 136.86328884381803, "p10": 136.33284721022267, "p90": 137.46517627504804, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 84, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-13T12:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 138.34053797766865, "p10": 137.7744602852329, "p90": 138.9515431616716, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 278.0453930674618, "p10": 277.1350946942645, "p90": 279.02765199824546, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 389.26355029444653, "p10": 387.98913257197034, "p90": 390.63871279754363, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 227.6548947962758, "p10": 226.90957088316512, "p90": 228.45913776927847, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 227.6548947962758, "p10": 226.90957088316512, "p90": 228.45913776927847, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 204.231550192839, "p10": 203.56291243608612, "p90": 204.95304484488688, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 285.9241702699746, "p10": 284.9880774105206, "p90": 286.93426278284164, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.21842271973998, "p10": 166.67096298127396, "p90": 167.80916003531274, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.21842271973998, "p10": 166.67096298127396, "p90": 167.80916003531274, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.63120159936724, "p10": 167.08239045587175, "p90": 168.2233971507211, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 234.68368223911412, "p10": 233.91534663822046, "p90": 235.51275601100954, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 137.25119896310613, "p10": 136.80184951783346, "p90": 137.73607020824696, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 137.25119896310613, "p10": 136.80184951783346, "p90": 137.73607020824696, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 90, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-13T18:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 138.52971953348208, "p10": 138.05722808258594, "p90": 139.0240414699473, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 278.3495997255907, "p10": 277.5900343875255, "p90": 279.144116529807, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 389.689439615827, "p10": 388.6260481425358, "p90": 390.80176314172974, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 227.9039697188582, "p10": 227.28206131311038, "p90": 228.55449529485236, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 227.9039697188582, "p10": 227.28206131311038, "p90": 228.55449529485236, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 204.45499787051216, "p10": 203.8970774361745, "p90": 205.03859106293734, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 286.23699701871703, "p10": 285.4559084106443, "p90": 287.0540274881123, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.40137470823353, "p10": 166.94456685976465, "p90": 167.87920261021623, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.40137470823353, "p10": 166.94456685976465, "p90": 167.87920261021623, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 167.81460520506664, "p10": 167.35666972586884, "p90": 168.29361262580585, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 234.94044728709335, "p10": 234.2993376162164, "p90": 235.6110576761282, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 137.40136411455904, "p10": 137.02642082853612, "p90": 137.79356044902076, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 137.40136411455904, "p10": 137.02642082853612, "p90": 137.79356044902076, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 96, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-14T00:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 136.83564387769877, "p10": 136.3164945870481, "p90": 137.4316600765802, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 275.6230565935687, "p10": 274.786427429154, "p90": 276.58331867860943, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 385.8722792309963, "p10": 384.7009984008156, "p90": 387.2166461500532, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 225.67156125119712, "p10": 224.98655538827984, "p90": 226.4577938930512, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 225.67156125119712, "p10": 224.98655538827984, "p90": 226.4577938930512, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 202.45228124795918, "p10": 201.83775543510566, "p90": 203.15761864648852, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 283.4331937471429, "p10": 282.57285760914795, "p90": 284.4206661050839, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 165.76161280826412, "p10": 165.2584582415534, "p90": 166.3391210686477, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 165.76161280826412, "p10": 165.2584582415534, "p90": 166.3391210686477, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 166.17079555085508, "p10": 165.66639894648517, "p90": 166.74972939108102, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 232.63911377119712, "p10": 231.93295852507924, "p90": 233.44962114751345, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 136.05546404491164, "p10": 135.6424798388559, "p90": 136.5294770146524, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 136.05546404491164, "p10": 135.6424798388559, "p90": 136.5294770146524, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 102, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-14T06:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 131.96239925323422, "p10": 130.77006477023485, "p90": 133.09775815264578, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 267.74094327566036, "p10": 265.80504631133, "p90": 269.58339710460456, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 374.8373205859245, "p10": 372.127064835862, "p90": 377.4167559464465, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 219.2179327326142, "p10": 217.63288068449728, "p90": 220.7264764562411, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 219.2179327326142, "p10": 217.63288068449728, "p90": 220.7264764562411, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 196.66266465351532, "p10": 195.24069814050466, "p90": 198.0159947608504, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 275.3277305149214, "p10": 273.3369773967066, "p90": 277.22239266519057, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 161.02125533577362, "p10": 159.85699351020648, "p90": 162.12931981334344, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 161.02125533577362, "p10": 159.85699351020648, "p90": 162.12931981334344, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 161.418736500185, "p10": 160.25160069288705, "p90": 162.52953623626385, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 225.98623110025892, "p10": 224.35224097004186, "p90": 227.5413507307694, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 132.16462632481498, "p10": 131.20901193217182, "p90": 133.07411449963038, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 132.16462632481498, "p10": 131.20901193217182, "p90": 133.07411449963038, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 108, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-14T12:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 126.6884093382334, "p10": 125.22393406438523, "p90": 127.97972972237541, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 259.1452057441568, "p10": 256.7476197477907, "p90": 261.2579386893063, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 362.8032880418195, "p10": 359.4466676469069, "p90": 365.76111416502886, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 212.18001096796172, "p10": 210.2169423418424, "p90": 213.90985080114297, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 212.18001096796172, "p10": 210.2169423418424, "p90": 213.90985080114297, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 190.34887257178926, "p10": 188.58778349436773, "p90": 191.90072969760283, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 266.48842160050503, "p10": 264.02289689211483, "p90": 268.661021576644, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 155.8517193248599, "p10": 154.4097945217757, "p90": 157.12233153252276, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 155.8517193248599, "p10": 154.4097945217757, "p90": 157.12233153252276, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 156.2364394833482, "p10": 154.79095528713583, "p90": 157.51018819878925, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 218.73101527668746, "p10": 216.70733740199017, "p90": 220.51426347830497, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 127.92152317839891, "p10": 126.73800580741135, "p90": 128.9644288946618, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 127.92152317839891, "p10": 126.73800580741135, "p90": 128.9644288946618, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 114, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-14T18:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 121.60913903678743, "p10": 120.0978859422581, "p90": 123.44701439155739, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 250.7986728865807, "p10": 248.30463683168853, "p90": 253.82887321837694, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 351.118142041213, "p10": 347.62649156436396, "p90": 355.36042250572774, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 205.34613021689992, "p10": 203.30409129141827, "p90": 207.82716372778182, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 205.34613021689992, "p10": 203.30409129141827, "p90": 207.82716372778182, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 184.2181277842839, "p10": 182.38619363817895, "p90": 186.44388849310252, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 257.9053788979975, "p10": 255.34067109345054, "p90": 261.02144389034356, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 150.8320567286747, "p10": 149.332126193217, "p90": 152.6544401690824, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 150.8320567286747, "p10": 149.332126193217, "p90": 152.6544401690824, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 151.2043858439462, "p10": 149.70075272813952, "p90": 153.03126784009044, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 211.68614018152468, "p10": 209.58105381939535, "p90": 214.24377497612662, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 123.80143462289702, "p10": 122.57030673038015, "p90": 125.2972286155582, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 123.80143462289702, "p10": 122.57030673038015, "p90": 125.2972286155582, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } }, { "lead_hours": 120, "valid_time_utc": "2016-09-15T00:00:00Z", "summary": { "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", "members": 50, "definitions": { "units": "km", "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", "thresholds_kt": [ 34, 50, 64 ], "quadrant_order": [ "NE", "SE", "SW", "NW" ], "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, "validated_surface_height_m": null, "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", "official_scoring_allowed": false }, "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", "estimates": { "wind_estimate_kt": { "mean": 116.7002794250999, "p10": 115.26871619878807, "p90": 118.29916713289887, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "rmw_persistence_km": { "mean": 74.07999999999998, "p10": 74.08, "p90": 74.08, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 242.66619550562635, "p10": 240.28447341703372, "p90": 245.3250458082348, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 339.73267370787687, "p10": 336.39826278384726, "p90": 343.45506413152873, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 198.6875114130809, "p10": 196.7374316598049, "p90": 200.86449510355513, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r34_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 198.6875114130809, "p10": 196.7374316598049, "p90": 200.86449510355513, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 178.24461229425194, "p10": 176.49517566839933, "p90": 180.19760677850394, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 249.54245721195267, "p10": 247.09324593575906, "p90": 252.2766494899055, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 145.94112857682, "p10": 144.50874443760648, "p90": 147.5401795409272, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r50_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 145.94112857682, "p10": 144.50874443760648, "p90": 147.5401795409272, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NE_estimate_km": { "mean": 146.30138443000695, "p10": 144.86546444880568, "p90": 147.90438265336167, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SE_estimate_km": { "mean": 204.82193820200973, "p10": 202.81165022832792, "p90": 207.06613571470632, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_SW_estimate_km": { "mean": 119.7870100040884, "p10": 118.61132351401615, "p90": 121.09949494717786, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 }, "r64_NW_estimate_km": { "mean": 119.7870100040884, "p10": 118.61132351401615, "p90": 121.09949494717786, "valid_members": 50, "total_members": 50 } }, "official_scoring_allowed": false } } ], "official_wind_or_radius_skill_score": null, "physical_50_member_means_verified": true, "observed_plus_zero_alignment_verified": true, "coverage": { "wind_estimate_kt": 20, "rmw_persistence_km": 20, "r34_NE_estimate_km": 20, "r34_SE_estimate_km": 20, "r34_SW_estimate_km": 20, "r34_NW_estimate_km": 20, "r50_NE_estimate_km": 20, "r50_SE_estimate_km": 20, "r50_SW_estimate_km": 20, "r50_NW_estimate_km": 20, "r64_NE_estimate_km": 20, "r64_SE_estimate_km": 20, "r64_SW_estimate_km": 20, "r64_NW_estimate_km": 20 }, "warning": "Retrospective development examples, not untouched tests. RMW is persistence; no validated wind-period calibration.", "chart": "meranti_wind_radius.png", "source_receipt_sha256": "f3e10a343ea146653acaf5b82044feb63b3c494ca49fcda394628e9dd88935c0", "source_reference": "Original immutable /Volumes/D member archive; original files unchanged." }