Bavi: Mac checkpoint prediction

Initial fix: 10 Jul 2026 06:00 UTC, 21.9°N 126.9°E

Run: local Mac Apple MPS, 50 ensemble members, 120-hour horizon

Important: this is a research proxy using a mean-normalized atmospheric field because the matching 2026 ERA5 field is not available locally. It is not an operational warning forecast.

official initial fix model mean 10–90% corridor