{ "method": "Contiguous Moving-Block Bootstrap (Zero Cross-Gap Leakage, B=1000)", "evaluated_samples": 14385, "contiguous_segments_count": 16, "results": { "block_48": { "block_length_steps": 48, "block_duration": "24h (48 bước)", "valid_blocks_count": 14012, "XGBoost_vs_Persistence": { "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 10.2, "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ -80.3, 84.04 ], "rmse_better_pct": 62.1, "delta_mae_mean_kW": -44.2, "ci_mae_95_kW": [ -97.56, -2.44 ], "is_significant_at_005": false }, "HistGBDT_vs_Persistence": { "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 23.85, "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ -58.28, 93.27 ], "rmse_better_pct": 74.6, "delta_mae_mean_kW": -39.15, "ci_mae_95_kW": [ -88.56, 1.33 ], "is_significant_at_005": false } }, "block_336": { "block_length_steps": 336, "block_duration": "7 ngày (336 bước)", "valid_blocks_count": 13315, "XGBoost_vs_Persistence": { "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 20.83, "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ -92.77, 113.92 ], "rmse_better_pct": 66.6, "delta_mae_mean_kW": -39.56, "ci_mae_95_kW": [ -101.33, 13.53 ], "is_significant_at_005": false }, "HistGBDT_vs_Persistence": { "delta_rmse_mean_kW": 32.22, "ci_rmse_95_kW": [ -72.99, 118.98 ], "rmse_better_pct": 75.2, "delta_mae_mean_kW": -35.31, "ci_mae_95_kW": [ -95.76, 14.91 ], "is_significant_at_005": false } } } }