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+++ b/data/reports/email-2026-08-13.eml @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +From: brettanthonysjoberg179@gmail.com +To: brettanthonysjoberg179@gmail.com +Subject: Trifecta-Bro Predictions - 2026-08-13 +Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 01:56:00 +1000 +MIME-Version: 1.0 +Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" + +Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions - 2026-08-13 + +Source: FormFav API + Local trifecta model +Generated: 2026-08-13 01:56 AEST + +Top Races +- Newcastle R7: 9 -> 13 -> 10 (73/100) +- Newcastle R3: 2 -> 3 -> 5 (72/100) +- Bunbury R7: 3 -> 2 -> 5 (71/100) +- Newcastle R4: 9 -> 4 -> 1 (71/100) +- Newcastle R2: 10 -> 7 -> 5 (70/100) + +Meetings: 5 +Races analysed: 14 +Races skipped: 24 + +See saved Obsidian note: +/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/Documents/Obsidian Vault/Trifecta Predictions/2026-08-13_Australian_Gallops_Trifecta.md + +Disclaimer: These are statistical estimates, not guarantees. diff --git a/data/reports/predictions-2026-08-07.json b/data/reports/predictions-2026-08-07.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b41bce2013488e803fd0b748529e543190bf388f --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/predictions-2026-08-07.json @@ -0,0 +1,1518 @@ +{ + "date": "2026-08-07", + "country": "AU", + "race_type": "gallops", + "model_version": "1.1.0", + "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T17:12:36.894508+00:00", + "disclaimer": "Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success.", + "predictions": [ + { + "track": "Canberra", + "race": 1, + "race_name": "Epc Solar Handicap", + "confidence": 70, + "confidence_category": "MEDIUM", + "top3": [ + 4, + 5, + 2 + ], + "trifecta": [ + 4, + 5, + 2 + ], + "alternatives": [], + "primary_prob_est": 0.2718, + "runner_probs_est": { + "4": 0.4936, + "5": 0.2128, + "2": 0.2092, + "6": 0.0844 + }, + "pace": "VERY FAST", + "data_completeness": 1.0, + "ranked": [ + { + "no": 4, + "name": "Spice Alley", + "score": 55.3, + "win_est": 0.4936, + "place_est": 0.9156 + }, + { + "no": 5, + "name": "Zou Royal", + "score": 45.2, + "win_est": 0.2128, + "place_est": 1.0 + }, + { + "no": 2, + "name": "Must Be Sain", + "score": 45.0, + "win_est": 0.2092, + "place_est": 1.0 + }, + { + "no": 6, + "name": "Star Empire", + "score": 34.1, + "win_est": 0.0844, + "place_est": 1.0 + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Canberra", + "race": 2, + "skipped": true, + "reason": null + }, + { + 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"win_est": 0.1153, + "place_est": 0.6937 + }, + { + "no": 4, + "name": "Mangione", + "score": 51.2, + "win_est": 0.1017, + "place_est": 0.7496 + }, + { + "no": 2, + "name": "Mickio", + "score": 49.4, + "win_est": 0.0876, + "place_est": 0.7886 + }, + { + "no": 11, + "name": "Pendante", + "score": 44.0, + "win_est": 0.0558, + "place_est": 0.8222 + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Warracknabeal", + "race": 6, + "race_name": "Betdeluxe 0 - 56 Handicap", + "confidence": 38, + "confidence_category": "LOW", + "top3": [ + 6, + 13, + 10 + ], + "trifecta": [ + 6, + 13, + 10 + ], + "alternatives": [], + "primary_prob_est": 0.2582, + "runner_probs_est": { + "6": 0.178, + "13": 0.0855, + "10": 0.0841, + "11": 0.0607, + "16": 0.0588, + "3": 0.0578, + "15": 0.0573, + "9": 0.055, + "17": 0.0545, + "5": 0.0477, + "12": 0.0432, + "2": 0.04, + "14": 0.0384, + "7": 0.0345, + "1": 0.0289, + "8": 0.0278, + "18": 0.0271, + "4": 0.0209 + }, + "pace": "SLOW", + "data_completeness": 1.0, + "ranked": [ + { + "no": 6, + "name": "Tuxedo Miss", + "score": 50.2, + "win_est": 0.178, + "place_est": 0.3475 + }, + { + "no": 13, + "name": "Ain't Tellin", + "score": 41.4, + "win_est": 0.0855, + "place_est": 0.4083 + }, + { + "no": 10, + "name": "Adki", + "score": 41.2, + "win_est": 0.0841, + "place_est": 0.467 + }, + { + "no": 11, + "name": "Artpark", + "score": 37.3, + "win_est": 0.0607, + "place_est": 0.5248 + }, + { + "no": 16, + "name": "Grumpyoldcol", + "score": 36.9, + "win_est": 0.0588, + "place_est": 0.5821 + }, + { + "no": 3, + "name": "Sunday Fun Day", + "score": 36.7, + "win_est": 0.0578, + "place_est": 0.6371 + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Warracknabeal", + "race": 7, + "race_name": "Taylors Palace Hotel 0 - 56 Handicap", + "confidence": 69, + "confidence_category": "MEDIUM", + "top3": [ + 5, + 4, + 6 + ], + "trifecta": [ + 5, + 4, + 6 + ], + "alternatives": [], + "primary_prob_est": 0.2867, + "runner_probs_est": { + "5": 0.2361, + "4": 0.107, + "6": 0.0944, + "7": 0.0936, + "9": 0.0554, + "16": 0.0549, + "15": 0.0545, + "1": 0.0509, + "3": 0.0493, + "2": 0.0424, + "11": 0.0421, + "14": 0.0359, + "10": 0.0356, + "13": 0.0287, + "12": 0.0194 + }, + "pace": "SLOW", + "data_completeness": 1.0, + "ranked": [ + { + "no": 5, + "name": "Just Like Lisa", + "score": 48.4, + "win_est": 0.2361, + "place_est": 0.4374 + }, + { + "no": 4, + "name": "Nankeen", + "score": 38.9, + "win_est": 0.107, + "place_est": 0.531 + }, + { + "no": 6, + "name": "Shooting For Stars", + "score": 37.4, + "win_est": 0.0944, + "place_est": 0.5864 + }, + { + "no": 7, + "name": "Two Kay Klick", + "score": 37.3, + "win_est": 0.0936, + "place_est": 0.6413 + }, + { + "no": 9, + "name": "Simply Luscious", + "score": 31.0, + "win_est": 0.0554, + "place_est": 0.6958 + }, + { + "no": 16, + "name": "Ask For More", + "score": 30.9, + "win_est": 0.0549, + "place_est": 0.7467 + } + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-07.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-07.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0f41d132c0b5a0b16e9132872e28ee37c3260ad7 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-07.md @@ -0,0 +1,631 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-07 + +*Model version 1.1.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:12:36.894508+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Coffs Harbour R5 — HIGH (100/100) + 1 → 10 → 3 +2. Canberra R4 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 1 → 11 → 9 +3. Canberra Acton R4 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 1 → 11 → 8 +4. Mount Gambier R4 — MEDIUM (73/100) + 1 → 4 → 6 +5. Canberra R1 — MEDIUM (70/100) + 4 → 5 → 2 +6. Coffs Harbour R7 — MEDIUM (70/100) + 12 → 9 → 3 + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 1 — Epc Solar Handicap +1206m | Synthetic | CL2 | Start 2026-08-07T02:56:00Z | 4 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Spice Alley (score 55.3) +🥈 #5 Zou Royal (score 45.2) +🥉 #2 Must Be Sain (score 45.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 5 → 2 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Spice Alley: recent form quality (score 88/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #5 Zou Royal: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Must Be Sain: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 74/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Spice Alley | 55.3 | 0.4936 | 0.9156 | form, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, con | +| 2 | 5 | Zou Royal | 45.2 | 0.2128 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, con | +| 3 | 2 | Must Be Sain | 45.0 | 0.2092 | 1.0 | barrier, form, weight, pace, trainer, jo | +| 4 | 6 | Star Empire | 34.1 | 0.0844 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 2 — Tradelink Mitchell Jockey's Celebration +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 3 — Act Foam & Rubber Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 4 — Todd Smart Racing Handicap +1080m | Synthetic | 4YO+ BM50 | Start 2026-08-07T04:41:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Geostorm (score 62.0) +🥈 #11 Beau Rock (score 45.9) +🥉 #9 Too Darn Sassy (score 45.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 11 → 9 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Geostorm: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #11 Beau Rock: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #9 Too Darn Sassy: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Geostorm | 62.0 | 0.4277 | 0.6432 | distance, condition, weight, barrier, fo | +| 2 | 11 | Beau Rock | 45.9 | 0.1118 | 0.7031 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | +| 3 | 9 | Too Darn Sassy | 45.0 | 0.1037 | 0.7586 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, jock | +| 4 | 8 | Prophet Time | 38.4 | 0.0598 | 0.8097 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, tra | +| 5 | 5 | Melodia Perfecta | 37.5 | 0.0555 | 0.8607 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 4 | On Point Pixie | 36.5 | 0.0511 | 0.9097 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 5 — Duncan's Plumbing, Heating Handicap +1080m | Synthetic | MDN | Start 2026-08-07T05:16:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Rosary Sister (score 46.7) +🥈 #2 Lavender Rose (score 40.3) +🥉 #7 Gunna Reign (score 36.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 2 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.945) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Rosary Sister: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Lavender Rose: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #7 Gunna Reign: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Rosary Sister | 46.7 | 0.2677 | 0.5411 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 2 | Lavender Rose | 40.3 | 0.157 | 0.6455 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 3 | 7 | Gunna Reign | 36.7 | 0.1163 | 0.7384 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 4 | 9 | La Stiava | 35.4 | 0.1044 | 0.8298 | barrier, weight, pace, form, track, jock | +| 5 | 4 | Deeply | 34.0 | 0.0929 | 0.9159 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 3 | The One | 33.8 | 0.0914 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 6 — Tab Federal +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra — Race 7 — Cbr Electrical Contractors Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 1 — Epc Solar Handicap +1206m | Synthetic | Start 2026-08-07T02:56:00Z | 4 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Spice Alley (score 57.7) +🥈 #5 Zou Royal (score 52.2) +🥉 #2 Must Be Sain (score 51.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 5 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Spice Alley: recent form quality (score 88/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #5 Zou Royal: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #2 Must Be Sain: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 74/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Spice Alley | 57.7 | 0.4003 | 0.8882 | form, barrier, jockey, track, weight, pa | +| 2 | 5 | Zou Royal | 52.2 | 0.2531 | 1.0 | track, barrier, jockey, weight, form, pa | +| 3 | 2 | Must Be Sain | 51.3 | 0.2348 | 1.0 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, trai | +| 4 | 6 | Star Empire | 42.4 | 0.1118 | 1.0 | track, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, fo | + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 2 — Tradelink Mitchell Jockey's Celebration +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 3 — Act Foam & Rubber Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 4 — Todd Smart Racing Handicap +1080m | Synthetic | Start 2026-08-07T04:41:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Geostorm (score 60.5) +🥈 #11 Beau Rock (score 43.7) +🥉 #8 Prophet Time (score 40.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 11 → 8 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Geostorm: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #11 Beau Rock: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #8 Prophet Time: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Geostorm | 60.5 | 0.4144 | 0.5962 | distance, condition, weight, barrier, fo | +| 2 | 11 | Beau Rock | 43.7 | 0.1022 | 0.6706 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | +| 3 | 8 | Prophet Time | 40.7 | 0.0796 | 0.7316 | barrier, weight, track, pace, jockey, fo | +| 4 | 3 | Merchant Reign | 39.9 | 0.0745 | 0.7906 | track, weight, barrier, pace, jockey, fo | +| 5 | 5 | Melodia Perfecta | 37.5 | 0.061 | 0.8466 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 9 | Too Darn Sassy | 37.1 | 0.059 | 0.9009 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 5 — Duncan's Plumbing, Heating Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 6 — Tab Federal +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canberra Acton — Race 7 — Cbr Electrical Contractors Handicap +1750m | Synthetic | Start 2026-08-07T06:33:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Sunburnt Country (score 55.5) +🥈 #2 Bombelleistic (score 49.4) +🥉 #3 Remadosi (score 45.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Sunburnt Country: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Bombelleistic: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Remadosi: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Sunburnt Country | 55.5 | 0.2922 | 0.5949 | track, condition, barrier, weight, form, | +| 2 | 2 | Bombelleistic | 49.4 | 0.1757 | 0.6989 | track, condition, weight, barrier, train | +| 3 | 3 | Remadosi | 45.5 | 0.127 | 0.7961 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, trai | +| 4 | 6 | Flashy Icon | 43.1 | 0.104 | 0.8706 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, tra | +| 5 | 7 | Tillman | 42.3 | 0.0973 | 0.9193 | barrier, track, form, weight, pace, jock | +| 6 | 5 | Devine Outcast | 39.1 | 0.0745 | 0.9645 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, tra | + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 1 — Grant Bastian Super Maiden Showcase +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 2 — Rob Young Memorial Maiden Showcase Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 3 — Driscoll's Ken Howard Showcase Cup +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 4 — Coffs Asphalt BM74 Showcase Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 5 — Pier Hotel Daniel Baker Showcase Sprint +1200m | Soft 5 | OPEN | Start 2026-08-07T04:55:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 My Mum's Toyboy (score 59.4) +🥈 #10 Spirits Burn Deep (score 39.3) +🥉 #3 Oakfield Duke (score 37.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 10 → 3 +**Confidence:** HIGH — 100/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 My Mum's Toyboy: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability +- #10 Spirits Burn Deep: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 63/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Oakfield Duke: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 54/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | My Mum's Toyboy | 59.4 | 0.5127 | 0.6907 | track, barrier, condition, jockey, weigh | +| 2 | 10 | Spirits Burn Deep | 39.3 | 0.096 | 0.7694 | barrier, form, weight, pace, track, trai | +| 3 | 3 | Oakfield Duke | 37.4 | 0.082 | 0.8371 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 11 | Cardsharp | 36.9 | 0.0786 | 0.8963 | barrier, track, weight, distance, pace, | +| 5 | 8 | Savvyrocker | 35.1 | 0.0677 | 0.9531 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, conditi | +| 6 | 6 | Lunaite | 33.5 | 0.0592 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, distance, condition, pa | + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 6 — Coffs Harbour Toyota Class 3 Showcase +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 7 — Moonee Beach Hotel Coffs Harbour Cup +1600m | Soft 5 | Qlty | Start 2026-08-07T06:10:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #12 Perfect Justice (score 58.7) +🥈 #9 Baby Ryan (score 48.6) +🥉 #3 Hollywood Hero (score 46.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 12 → 9 → 3 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #12 Perfect Justice: recent form quality (score 86/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #9 Baby Ryan: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 67/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Hollywood Hero: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 12 | Perfect Justice | 58.7 | 0.2886 | 0.5131 | form, barrier, distance, jockey, conditi | +| 2 | 9 | Baby Ryan | 48.6 | 0.1244 | 0.5911 | track, form, barrier, pace, weight, cond | +| 3 | 3 | Hollywood Hero | 46.0 | 0.1002 | 0.6641 | barrier, condition, weight, jockey, dist | +| 4 | 6 | Flash Prince | 43.0 | 0.078 | 0.7353 | form, jockey, barrier, distance, pace, w | +| 5 | 11 | Kaizad | 42.2 | 0.073 | 0.7931 | barrier, jockey, distance, pace, weight, | +| 6 | 4 | Fortune | 41.9 | 0.0712 | 0.848 | form, weight, barrier, distance, pace, j | + +--- + +### Coffs Harbour — Race 8 — Cetnaj Country Magic Merv Mercer Mile +1600m | Soft 5 | CL2 | Start 2026-08-07T06:50:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Satin And Cash (score 51.0) +🥈 #6 No Woman No Cry (score 46.4) +🥉 #8 Tara Koda (score 44.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 6 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Satin And Cash: recent form quality (score 82/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 No Woman No Cry: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 74/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #8 Tara Koda: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 59/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Satin And Cash | 51.0 | 0.1648 | 0.3721 | form, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, con | +| 2 | 6 | No Woman No Cry | 46.4 | 0.1123 | 0.4625 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 3 | 8 | Tara Koda | 44.4 | 0.0951 | 0.545 | barrier, form, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 1 | Vixenette | 43.8 | 0.0904 | 0.6172 | distance, weight, form, pace, barrier, j | +| 5 | 2 | Bella Kathleen | 42.7 | 0.0825 | 0.6877 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 14 | Purple Kitty | 41.1 | 0.0722 | 0.7563 | form, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 1 — Vince Insurance Class 1 Plate +800m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-07T02:49:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Lady Milan (score 67.5) +🥈 #3 Sort Cha Mess (score 62.9) +🥉 #6 Deep Kharma (score 52.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 3 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Lady Milan: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Sort Cha Mess: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Deep Kharma: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Lady Milan | 67.5 | 0.3971 | 0.7854 | distance, track, barrier, form, jockey, | +| 2 | 3 | Sort Cha Mess | 62.9 | 0.2707 | 0.8892 | distance, condition, barrier, jockey, we | +| 3 | 6 | Deep Kharma | 52.9 | 0.1176 | 0.9336 | distance, track, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 4 | 4 | Better Sweet | 51.4 | 0.1038 | 0.9705 | distance, track, barrier, weight, jockey | +| 5 | 1 | Betterindanude | 41.2 | 0.0444 | 1.0 | barrier, condition, weight, distance, pa | +| 6 | 5 | Bottles Of Shells | 39.0 | 0.0369 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 2 — Barrier Reef Pools Maiden Handicap +1100m | Soft 5 | MDN | Start 2026-08-07T03:24:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #16 The Foundling (score 55.5) +🥈 #11 Zamunda Queen (score 47.8) +🥉 #2 Elnajeeb (score 41.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 16 → 11 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.945) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #16 The Foundling: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #11 Zamunda Queen: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Elnajeeb: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 16 | The Foundling | 55.5 | 0.3207 | 0.5893 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 11 | Zamunda Queen | 47.8 | 0.1688 | 0.6658 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 2 | Elnajeeb | 41.5 | 0.0999 | 0.7244 | condition, weight, barrier, pace, jockey | +| 4 | 19 | Bloods A Rushin' | 38.3 | 0.0765 | 0.7792 | pace, barrier, weight, form, jockey | +| 5 | 13 | Scarlett Blaze | 35.1 | 0.0586 | 0.8215 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 3 | Apollo Cream | 34.3 | 0.0548 | 0.8624 | weight, pace, barrier, form | + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 3 — Tab Qtis 3Yo & 4Yo BM68 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 4 — Fertpro 0 - 58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 5 — Gibson Architects 0 - 62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 6 — Ipswich Tribune Today BM68 Handicap +1100m | Good 4 | BM68 | Start 2026-08-07T05:44:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #16 Mishani Extreme (score 55.6) +🥈 #8 Run Lucy Run (score 47.2) +🥉 #17 Apollo Ten (score 43.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 16 → 8 → 17 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #16 Mishani Extreme: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability +- #8 Run Lucy Run: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #17 Apollo Ten: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 16 | Mishani Extreme | 55.6 | 0.3498 | 0.6502 | track, barrier, condition, trainer, weig | +| 2 | 8 | Run Lucy Run | 47.2 | 0.1737 | 0.7416 | track, weight, jockey, barrier, pace, co | +| 3 | 17 | Apollo Ten | 43.4 | 0.1266 | 0.8177 | distance, weight, barrier, form, conditi | +| 4 | 6 | Inatick | 39.5 | 0.0915 | 0.8714 | weight, condition, jockey, pace, form, d | +| 5 | 21 | Lumens Lenny | 37.3 | 0.0761 | 0.9208 | barrier, track, weight, jockey, pace, di | +| 6 | 13 | Cutepi | 33.1 | 0.0537 | 0.9693 | weight, condition, distance, pace, barri | + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 7 — Poco Vino 0 - 58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 1 — Midfield Meats Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 2 — The Border Watch Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 3 — Minrosa Rating 0 - 54 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 4 — Sportsbet Benchmark 58 Handicap +2050m | Heavy 10 | BM58 | Start 2026-08-07T05:20:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Side Piece (score 60.3) +🥈 #4 Fuwari (score 47.3) +🥉 #6 Pianta (score 47.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 73/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Side Piece: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 84/100) +- #4 Fuwari: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Pianta: recent form quality (score 82/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Side Piece | 60.3 | 0.4278 | 0.7161 | track, barrier, form, weight, condition, | +| 2 | 4 | Fuwari | 47.3 | 0.1448 | 0.7983 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 3 | 6 | Pianta | 47.2 | 0.1436 | 0.8623 | form, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 2 | Wimmera Star | 40.5 | 0.0822 | 0.9142 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 5 | 3 | Here Comes Ruby | 37.5 | 0.064 | 0.9649 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 9 | Dodgy Element | 35.0 | 0.0519 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 5 — Green Triangle Livestock 0 - 54 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 6 — O'Connor & Graney Benchmark 56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mount Gambier — Race 7 — Scott Group Of Companies BM62 Handicap +1200m | Heavy 10 | BM62 | Start 2026-08-07T07:20:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Gusty Way (score 58.2) +🥈 #2 Shout Me (score 53.8) +🥉 #6 Terralight (score 52.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 2 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Gusty Way: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #2 Shout Me: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 79/100) +- #6 Terralight: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Gusty Way | 58.2 | 0.1791 | 0.4127 | track, condition, jockey, form, barrier, | +| 2 | 2 | Shout Me | 53.8 | 0.1241 | 0.5024 | track, condition, form, weight, barrier, | +| 3 | 6 | Terralight | 52.3 | 0.1095 | 0.587 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, track, co | +| 4 | 9 | Min Kiata | 49.9 | 0.0897 | 0.6661 | condition, distance, weight, form, barri | +| 5 | 1 | Halliwell | 49.2 | 0.0846 | 0.7452 | track, condition, weight, barrier, dista | +| 6 | 4 | Naralinga | 48.4 | 0.0791 | 0.8151 | track, condition, barrier, weight, pace, | + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 1 — Kellbell Concreting Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 2 — The Brewer's Table Maiden Plate +1200m | Soft | MDN | Start 2026-08-07T03:20:00Z | 14 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Misty Whisper (score 56.2) +🥈 #4 Montostratus (score 49.8) +🥉 #13 Whimsy Smile (score 49.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 4 → 13 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 0.937) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Misty Whisper: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #4 Montostratus: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #13 Whimsy Smile: track-specific record; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Misty Whisper | 56.2 | 0.1962 | 0.4264 | condition, barrier, jockey, weight, form | +| 2 | 4 | Montostratus | 49.8 | 0.1151 | 0.5406 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 13 | Whimsy Smile | 49.8 | 0.1151 | 0.6413 | track, jockey, barrier, weight, distance | +| 4 | 5 | Patchson | 49.7 | 0.1142 | 0.731 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 5 | 7 | Katiya | 48.2 | 0.1007 | 0.7853 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 6 | 1 | Farside | 46.8 | 0.0896 | 0.8284 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 3 — Avenel Equine Hospital Maiden Plate +1100m | Soft | 3YO MDN | Start 2026-08-07T03:55:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Vella Longa (score 53.4) +🥈 #16 Barwon Heights (score 48.1) +🥉 #7 Aryna (score 40.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 16 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.889) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Vella Longa: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #16 Barwon Heights: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #7 Aryna: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Vella Longa | 53.4 | 0.2878 | 0.5726 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 16 | Barwon Heights | 48.1 | 0.185 | 0.6565 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 3 | 7 | Aryna | 40.7 | 0.0999 | 0.7304 | jockey, weight, pace, barrier, form | +| 4 | 8 | Brazen Madonna | 38.6 | 0.0838 | 0.8032 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 9 | Bushra | 37.1 | 0.074 | 0.8613 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 13 | Pain Au Chocolat | 36.9 | 0.0728 | 0.9184 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 4 — United Insurance Group Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 5 — Diego Velazquez By Frankel @ Swettenham +1200m | Soft | 3YO+ BM62 | Start 2026-08-07T05:05:00Z | 14 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Induction (score 60.7) +🥈 #17 I Said So (score 55.7) +🥉 #14 Bella Pietra (score 51.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 17 → 14 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Induction: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 83/100) +- #17 I Said So: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #14 Bella Pietra: track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Induction | 60.7 | 0.254 | 0.5355 | track, condition, form, jockey, weight, | +| 2 | 17 | I Said So | 55.7 | 0.1674 | 0.6405 | condition, barrier, distance, jockey, we | +| 3 | 14 | Bella Pietra | 51.1 | 0.1141 | 0.7272 | condition, jockey, distance, barrier, we | +| 4 | 9 | Illuminance | 50.1 | 0.105 | 0.7692 | distance, weight, barrier, jockey, form, | +| 5 | 1 | Da Nang Star | 47.8 | 0.0867 | 0.8071 | weight, barrier, jockey, form, pace, con | +| 6 | 4 | Sub Gauge | 39.1 | 0.042 | 0.8404 | weight, condition, barrier, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 6 — Lubeck Plumbing BM62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 7 — Bet365 Bet Boost BM62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Seymour — Race 8 — Observer @ Darley BM66 Handicap +1400m | Soft | 3YO+ BM66 | Start 2026-08-07T07:00:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 Valedictorian (score 51.1) +🥈 #13 Alien Angel (score 46.2) +🥉 #6 Camp Cable (score 44.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 13 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 Valedictorian: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #13 Alien Angel: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; recent form quality (score 70/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Camp Cable: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | Valedictorian | 51.1 | 0.1998 | 0.4507 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | +| 2 | 13 | Alien Angel | 46.2 | 0.1328 | 0.5383 | jockey, form, weight, trainer, pace, bar | +| 3 | 6 | Camp Cable | 44.8 | 0.1182 | 0.6236 | barrier, condition, weight, track, dista | +| 4 | 18 | Swift Circle | 41.2 | 0.0875 | 0.7009 | barrier, distance, weight, pace, form, c | +| 5 | 19 | Mislight | 40.9 | 0.0854 | 0.7769 | track, barrier, pace, weight, form, cond | +| 6 | 4 | She's Pretty Rich | 39.7 | 0.0773 | 0.851 | barrier, weight, jockey, condition, pace | diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-08.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-08.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..827aa002e3539aa1888059567e3ef94549c2ef8e --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-08.md @@ -0,0 +1,1739 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-08 + +*Model version 1.2.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:31:37.866872+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Morphettville R8 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 3 → 7 → 8 +2. Alice Springs R5 — MEDIUM (73/100) + 2 → 4 → 1 +3. Kembla Grange R4 — MEDIUM (73/100) + 3 → 4 → 5 +4. Morphettville R9 — MEDIUM (73/100) + 3 → 9 → 7 +5. Kembla Grange R6 — MEDIUM (72/100) + 11 → 13 → 3 +6. Eagle Farm R4 — MEDIUM (71/100) + 4 → 11 → 2 +7. Kembla Grange R8 — MEDIUM (71/100) + 2 → 11 → 8 +8. Mildura R7 — MEDIUM (71/100) + 4 → 3 → 7 + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 1 — Leading Jockey Paul Denton Handicap +1200m | Good | CL2 | Start 2026-08-08T03:19:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Voronya (score 61.4) +🥈 #2 Brazen Sailor (score 52.8) +🥉 #7 D'Ambidex (score 39.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 2 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Voronya: track-specific record; track_distance; recent form quality (score 73/100) +- #2 Brazen Sailor: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 82/100) +- #7 D'Ambidex: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Voronya | 61.4 | 0.4701 | 0.7761 | track, track_distance, form, weight, bar | +| 2 | 2 | Brazen Sailor | 52.8 | 0.2296 | 0.8419 | track_distance, barrier, form, track, we | +| 3 | 7 | D'Ambidex | 39.6 | 0.0764 | 0.9071 | track_distance, barrier, weight, pace, d | +| 4 | 4 | Splish Splash | 37.8 | 0.0658 | 0.9566 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, t | +| 5 | 6 | Bad Man | 37.7 | 0.0652 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, tra | +| 6 | 3 | Snick | 34.4 | 0.0495 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, distan | + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 2 — National Seniors Month Handicap +1200m | Good | CL2 | Start 2026-08-08T03:52:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Startyourengine (score 58.5) +🥈 #5 Desi's Spirit (score 51.6) +🥉 #1 Highstrung (score 50.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 5 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Startyourengine: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100) +- #5 Desi's Spirit: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #1 Highstrung: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 72/100); historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Startyourengine | 58.5 | 0.3557 | 0.734 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, jock | +| 2 | 5 | Desi's Spirit | 51.6 | 0.2002 | 0.8627 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 1 | Highstrung | 50.2 | 0.1781 | 0.9345 | barrier, form, distance, weight, track, | +| 4 | 2 | Riverina Waltz | 46.3 | 0.1287 | 1.0 | barrier, condition, form, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 6 | Epic Jewel | 39.3 | 0.0718 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 3 | Our Squamosa | 38.2 | 0.0655 | 1.0 | track, barrier, weight, pace, distance, | + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 3 — Leading Apprentice Lek Maloney Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 4 — Ladbrokes Red Centre Winter Series HT8 +1100m | Good | BM54 | Start 2026-08-08T05:04:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Bonny Impact (score 51.5) +🥈 #4 Revolution Rising (score 45.5) +🥉 #3 Tango Stepz (score 42.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 4 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Bonny Impact: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; recent form quality (score 64/100) +- #4 Revolution Rising: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 58/100) +- #3 Tango Stepz: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track_distance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Bonny Impact | 51.5 | 0.281 | 0.5875 | barrier, jockey, form, track, weight, pa | +| 2 | 4 | Revolution Rising | 45.5 | 0.1704 | 0.7096 | jockey, weight, form, barrier, track, pa | +| 3 | 3 | Tango Stepz | 42.8 | 0.1361 | 0.8307 | barrier, weight, track_distance, track, | +| 4 | 6 | Only The Best | 41.5 | 0.1221 | 0.9341 | barrier, weight, form, pace, track, cond | +| 5 | 2 | Dad Bod | 41.4 | 0.1211 | 1.0 | track, weight, barrier, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 7 | Lean On Me | 39.5 | 0.1034 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, track_distance, distanc | + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 5 — Jockey Celebration Day Handicap +1400m | Good | BM0-64 | Start 2026-08-08T05:42:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Stella Bystarlight (score 60.4) +🥈 #4 Dolce D'Amour (score 46.7) +🥉 #1 Limited Risk (score 46.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 73/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Stella Bystarlight: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; recent form quality (score 85/100) +- #4 Dolce D'Amour: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; track_distance +- #1 Limited Risk: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 60/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Stella Bystarlight | 60.4 | 0.4544 | 0.7433 | barrier, track, form, jockey, track_dist | +| 2 | 4 | Dolce D'Amour | 46.7 | 0.1451 | 0.8714 | barrier, distance, track_distance, track | +| 3 | 1 | Limited Risk | 46.6 | 0.1439 | 0.9497 | barrier, weight, form, pace, distance, t | +| 4 | 3 | Valley Prince | 45.2 | 0.128 | 1.0 | barrier, form, condition, weight, track, | +| 5 | 6 | Nasha | 39.3 | 0.0783 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 5 | Pub Crawl | 34.0 | 0.0503 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track, condition, | + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 6 — Truckies Day 28Th Aug Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Alice Springs — Race 7 — Leading Trainer Kerry Petrick Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 1 — Happy 70Th Birthday Colin Brown Plate +1000m | Soft 7 | 3YO OPEN | Start 2026-08-08T04:28:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Superrific (score 55.5) +🥈 #1 Properata (score 51.5) +🥉 #6 Spinarella (score 46.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.972) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Superrific: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Properata: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 72/100) +- #6 Spinarella: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 60/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Superrific | 55.5 | 0.2865 | 0.6304 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 1 | Properata | 51.5 | 0.2053 | 0.7479 | distance, barrier, form, weight, track, | +| 3 | 6 | Spinarella | 46.8 | 0.1387 | 0.8221 | jockey, barrier, form, weight, distance, | +| 4 | 7 | Manhattan Squeeze | 44.8 | 0.1174 | 0.891 | barrier, form, weight, track, pace, jock | +| 5 | 11 | Extreme Dixie | 39.3 | 0.0743 | 0.9599 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 8 | Sarabi | 38.4 | 0.0689 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 2 — Ted McAuliffe Handicap +1400m | Soft 7 | 4YO+ NMW1Y | Start 2026-08-08T05:06:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Articole (score 64.7) +🥈 #8 I Love Ya Money (score 53.9) +🥉 #1 Snazzler (score 52.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 8 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Articole: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #8 I Love Ya Money: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 80/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Snazzler: track_distance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Articole | 64.7 | 0.3613 | 0.6335 | track, condition, barrier, form, jockey, | +| 2 | 8 | I Love Ya Money | 53.9 | 0.1469 | 0.7018 | track, form, barrier, weight, condition, | +| 3 | 1 | Snazzler | 52.0 | 0.1254 | 0.7511 | track_distance, weight, barrier, track, | +| 4 | 10 | Secret Identity | 44.7 | 0.0682 | 0.7991 | barrier, distance, track_distance, condi | +| 5 | 9 | Publicise | 40.8 | 0.0493 | 0.8449 | barrier, weight, form, distance, pace, j | +| 6 | 11 | Milly's Clever Too | 40.5 | 0.0481 | 0.8895 | track_distance, barrier, form, pace, wei | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 3 — George Towton Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 4 — Robert Burns Snr Handicap +1000m | Heavy 8 | 3YO+ 1MW | Start 2026-08-08T06:21:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Sunset Session (score 70.1) +🥈 #5 Mai Aloha (score 62.7) +🥉 #7 Eternal Wine (score 50.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 5 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Sunset Session: track-specific record; track_distance; track-condition suitability +- #5 Mai Aloha: track_distance; recent form quality (score 88/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #7 Eternal Wine: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track_distance; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Sunset Session | 70.1 | 0.3957 | 0.6885 | track, track_distance, condition, jockey | +| 2 | 5 | Mai Aloha | 62.7 | 0.2136 | 0.755 | track_distance, form, jockey, distance, | +| 3 | 7 | Eternal Wine | 50.8 | 0.0792 | 0.8193 | barrier, track_distance, distance, track | +| 4 | 11 | Rocky Beach | 48.7 | 0.0665 | 0.8729 | barrier, pace, weight, form | +| 5 | 3 | Too Darn Stormy | 48.3 | 0.0643 | 0.9194 | track, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, fo | +| 6 | 2 | Niccimota | 46.1 | 0.0536 | 0.9538 | condition, weight, barrier, track, track | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 5 — Jj Kelly Handicap +1600m | Heavy 8 | 3YO+ BM72+ | Start 2026-08-08T07:00:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Mt Shirataku (score 54.4) +🥈 #7 Supernatural (score 47.1) +🥉 #10 Ginger Green (score 43.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 7 → 10 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Mt Shirataku: recent form quality (score 80/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; track-specific record +- #7 Supernatural: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #10 Ginger Green: track_distance; recent form quality (score 60/100); track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Mt Shirataku | 54.4 | 0.2307 | 0.4508 | form, jockey, track, weight, barrier, fi | +| 2 | 7 | Supernatural | 47.1 | 0.1255 | 0.5422 | condition, barrier, weight, form, track, | +| 3 | 10 | Ginger Green | 43.7 | 0.0946 | 0.625 | track_distance, form, track, barrier, we | +| 4 | 2 | Lillian | 43.3 | 0.0915 | 0.6999 | condition, weight, barrier, pace, form, | +| 5 | 5 | Urquharts Bluff | 42.1 | 0.0828 | 0.7729 | barrier, weight, form, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 9 | The Merryman | 40.9 | 0.0749 | 0.8454 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, form, f | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 6 — Angus Armanasco Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 7 — Swan Draught - Belmont Newmarket +1200m | Heavy 9 | 3YO+ LR | Start 2026-08-08T08:15:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Immortal Bliss (score 58.7) +🥈 #2 Snowdome (score 51.2) +🥉 #8 Final Siren (score 49.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 2 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Immortal Bliss: track_distance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Snowdome: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record +- #8 Final Siren: track_distance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Immortal Bliss | 58.7 | 0.2692 | 0.5404 | track_distance, condition, barrier, trac | +| 2 | 2 | Snowdome | 51.2 | 0.1441 | 0.6322 | track_distance, barrier, track, weight, | +| 3 | 8 | Final Siren | 49.7 | 0.1271 | 0.7196 | track_distance, track, barrier, jockey, | +| 4 | 7 | Yonga Lass | 45.8 | 0.0919 | 0.7967 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 5 | 9 | Jaz Session | 45.2 | 0.0874 | 0.8689 | distance, track_distance, pace, weight, | +| 6 | 1 | Fluro Neuro | 43.7 | 0.0771 | 0.9084 | form, weight, distance, track, track_dis | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 8 — Congratulations Michael Grantham +1200m | Heavy 9 | 3YO+ BM66+ | Start 2026-08-08T08:55:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Zourun Run (score 65.4) +🥈 #5 Magical Sequence (score 54.5) +🥉 #6 Hey Pino (score 54.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 5 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Zourun Run: track-specific record; track_distance; track-condition suitability +- #5 Magical Sequence: track_distance; track-condition suitability; historical distance performance +- #6 Hey Pino: track_distance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Zourun Run | 65.4 | 0.3686 | 0.661 | track, track_distance, condition, form, | +| 2 | 5 | Magical Sequence | 54.5 | 0.1486 | 0.7489 | track_distance, condition, distance, bar | +| 3 | 6 | Hey Pino | 54.1 | 0.1438 | 0.8168 | track_distance, condition, barrier, trac | +| 4 | 9 | Common Touch | 48.2 | 0.0879 | 0.8623 | form, weight, track, track_distance, fit | +| 5 | 3 | Asif | 45.1 | 0.0679 | 0.8949 | condition, barrier, distance, weight, pa | +| 6 | 10 | Under Influence | 40.3 | 0.0455 | 0.9249 | barrier, track, weight, track_distance, | + +--- + +### Casino — Race 1 — First National Casino Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Casino — Race 2 — Casino Golf Club BM58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Casino — Race 3 — Mulherin Schier Maiden Handicap +1300m | Soft 5 | MDN | Start 2026-08-08T03:26:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 Nukatabe (score 49.9) +🥈 #4 Fabulous Fiano (score 42.9) +🥉 #6 Lunar Glory (score 41.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 4 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.98) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 Nukatabe: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #4 Fabulous Fiano: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Lunar Glory: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | Nukatabe | 49.9 | 0.2237 | 0.4586 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 4 | Fabulous Fiano | 42.9 | 0.1248 | 0.5575 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 3 | 6 | Lunar Glory | 41.4 | 0.1101 | 0.6364 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 1 | Grafting | 40.1 | 0.0988 | 0.7078 | distance, weight, jockey, pace, barrier, | +| 5 | 13 | So Sain | 37.4 | 0.0789 | 0.7769 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 17 | Long Hot Night | 36.2 | 0.0714 | 0.8437 | jockey, weight, pace, barrier, form | + +--- + +### Casino — Race 4 — The Bob Small Memorial Bridle BM50 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Casino — Race 5 — Oatens Casino Benchmark 50 Handicap +1200m | Soft 5 | BM50 | Start 2026-08-08T04:36:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Diamondsaremio (score 52.6) +🥈 #7 Copenhagen Cat (score 42.6) +🥉 #4 Lolita (score 40.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 7 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Diamondsaremio: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 62/100) +- #7 Copenhagen Cat: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #4 Lolita: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Diamondsaremio | 52.6 | 0.2971 | 0.5337 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, distance, | +| 2 | 7 | Copenhagen Cat | 42.6 | 0.1291 | 0.6217 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 3 | 4 | Lolita | 40.4 | 0.1075 | 0.7054 | distance, weight, jockey, pace, form, ba | +| 4 | 2 | Fred's Memory | 38.0 | 0.088 | 0.7831 | barrier, weight, jockey, distance, pace, | +| 5 | 12 | Cowgirl Lilly | 37.4 | 0.0837 | 0.8483 | track_distance, weight, distance, pace, | +| 6 | 5 | Whiskey Miss | 36.5 | 0.0777 | 0.9054 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Casino — Race 6 — Richmond Valley Tree Service BM50 +1200m | Good 4 | BM50 | Start 2026-08-08T05:15:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Eccasdash (score 55.0) +🥈 #5 Rainbow Lass (score 46.6) +🥉 #12 Darling Take Care (score 39.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 5 → 12 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Eccasdash: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #5 Rainbow Lass: track-specific record; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #12 Darling Take Care: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Eccasdash | 55.0 | 0.3326 | 0.5892 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 2 | 5 | Rainbow Lass | 46.6 | 0.1652 | 0.6719 | track, track_distance, barrier, weight, | +| 3 | 12 | Darling Take Care | 39.5 | 0.0914 | 0.7437 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, condition | +| 4 | 4 | Spirit Fox | 38.3 | 0.0827 | 0.812 | barrier, weight, pace, form, fitness, co | +| 5 | 6 | Celestial Bell | 36.6 | 0.0718 | 0.8797 | weight, barrier, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 3 | Hotzino | 36.0 | 0.0683 | 0.9385 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Casino — Race 7 — The Charcoal Inn Casino Cup +1400m | Good 4 | OPEN | Start 2026-08-08T05:51:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #19 Andros (score 59.0) +🥈 #1 Bodhi Boy (score 51.5) +🥉 #17 He's A Copy Boy (score 45.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 19 → 1 → 17 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #19 Andros: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #1 Bodhi Boy: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 70/100) +- #17 He's A Copy Boy: track_distance; track-specific record; recent form quality (score 66/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 19 | Andros | 59.0 | 0.2957 | 0.5467 | track_distance, barrier, jockey, form, t | +| 2 | 1 | Bodhi Boy | 51.5 | 0.1583 | 0.6266 | barrier, weight, form, condition, fitnes | +| 3 | 17 | He's A Copy Boy | 45.1 | 0.0928 | 0.7033 | track_distance, track, form, barrier, we | +| 4 | 5 | House Of Cards | 43.3 | 0.0799 | 0.7625 | barrier, distance, weight, form, pace, c | +| 5 | 18 | In The Fine Print | 42.8 | 0.0766 | 0.8109 | track_distance, condition, barrier, weig | +| 6 | 14 | Speed Map | 39.7 | 0.0592 | 0.8487 | barrier, form, pace, condition, weight, | + +--- + +### Casino — Race 8 — The Michael Griffin Memorial Class 3 +1400m | Good 4 | CL3 | Start 2026-08-08T06:30:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Keep It Loki (score 54.3) +🥈 #17 Risk For Reward (score 43.5) +🥉 #16 Bianco Nero (score 39.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 17 → 16 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Keep It Loki: recent form quality (score 97/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #17 Risk For Reward: track-specific record; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #16 Bianco Nero: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Keep It Loki | 54.3 | 0.3378 | 0.5736 | form, barrier, weight, distance, pace, j | +| 2 | 17 | Risk For Reward | 43.5 | 0.1374 | 0.6555 | track, track_distance, barrier, weight, | +| 3 | 16 | Bianco Nero | 39.5 | 0.0984 | 0.7368 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, c | +| 4 | 5 | Capzinzi | 37.3 | 0.0819 | 0.7975 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 5 | 11 | Picupstixx | 37.2 | 0.0813 | 0.8515 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 10 | Monarch Express | 33.7 | 0.0607 | 0.8961 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 1 — The Valley @ Caulfield Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 2 — Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 3 — Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap +1000m | Soft | BM100 | Start 2026-08-08T03:30:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Cavalry Girl (score 64.7) +🥈 #2 Stokke (score 55.3) +🥉 #7 Along The River (score 53.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 2 → 7 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Cavalry Girl: track-specific record; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Stokke: track-specific record; track_distance; historical distance performance +- #7 Along The River: track-specific record; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Cavalry Girl | 64.7 | 0.3848 | 0.7095 | track, track_distance, barrier, form, jo | +| 2 | 2 | Stokke | 55.3 | 0.1758 | 0.8198 | track, track_distance, distance, fitness | +| 3 | 7 | Along The River | 53.3 | 0.1488 | 0.9291 | track, track_distance, barrier, form, di | +| 4 | 5 | Bazaball Rewarded | 49.7 | 0.1103 | 1.0 | barrier, distance, condition, pace, form | +| 5 | 8 | Chinqui | 49.6 | 0.1093 | 1.0 | track, track_distance, distance, conditi | +| 6 | 1 | Klabel | 44.4 | 0.0709 | 1.0 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, pa | + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 4 — Drummond Golf Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 5 — Sungold Milk Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 6 — Msc Signs Handicap +1200m | Soft | BM88 | Start 2026-08-08T05:20:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Stylish (score 59.5) +🥈 #2 Welcometotheshow (score 53.4) +🥉 #9 Custom (score 47.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 2 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Stylish: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 89/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Welcometotheshow: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #9 Custom: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Stylish | 59.5 | 0.3162 | 0.6217 | track, form, barrier, condition, weight, | +| 2 | 2 | Welcometotheshow | 53.4 | 0.1902 | 0.7287 | distance, track, condition, weight, barr | +| 3 | 9 | Custom | 47.4 | 0.1153 | 0.8135 | barrier, form, jockey, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 10 | Thinxzo | 46.5 | 0.107 | 0.8975 | barrier, form, distance, condition, pace | +| 5 | 4 | Betwitchery | 43.7 | 0.0847 | 0.9572 | barrier, form, jockey, weight, condition | +| 6 | 5 | Piastri | 43.6 | 0.084 | 1.0 | form, distance, weight, condition, pace, | + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 7 — Bottle Stop Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 8 — Ranvet Travis Harrison Cup +1800m | Soft | BM100 | Start 2026-08-08T06:35:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Glory Daze (score 54.7) +🥈 #8 First Chorus (score 50.4) +🥉 #1 Bankers Choice (score 49.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 8 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Glory Daze: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #8 First Chorus: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 79/100); track-condition suitability +- #1 Bankers Choice: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Glory Daze | 54.7 | 0.2279 | 0.5301 | distance, barrier, weight, form, conditi | +| 2 | 8 | First Chorus | 50.4 | 0.1593 | 0.6396 | barrier, form, condition, pace, weight, | +| 3 | 1 | Bankers Choice | 49.1 | 0.1429 | 0.7429 | barrier, distance, weight, form, pace, c | +| 4 | 7 | Jennivamoose | 45.9 | 0.1095 | 0.824 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 2 | Detonator Jack | 45.2 | 0.1033 | 0.8866 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, form, c | +| 6 | 4 | Magnaspin | 42.3 | 0.0811 | 0.9315 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | + +--- + +### Caulfield Heath — Race 9 — Ladbrokes Mega Multi Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Cunnamulla — Race 1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Cunnamulla — Race 2 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Cunnamulla — Race 3 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Cunnamulla — Race 4 +Good | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Dazzington (score 52.2) +🥈 #2 Here I Come (score 43.9) +🥉 #5 Il Toro D'Oro (score 43.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 2 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Dazzington: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Here I Come: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #5 Il Toro D'Oro: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Dazzington | 52.2 | 0.4001 | 0.7926 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 2 | Here I Come | 43.9 | 0.2003 | 0.9151 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, condition | +| 3 | 5 | Il Toro D'Oro | 43.4 | 0.1922 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 4 | 4 | Howler | 38.0 | 0.1225 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 3 | Al Ash Lad | 33.6 | 0.0849 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Cunnamulla — Race 5 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 1 — Souths Sports Club Benchmark 70 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 2 — Become A Brc Member BM78 Handicap +2400m | Good | BM78 | Start 2026-08-08T02:13:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Benzino (score 58.5) +🥈 #2 Chillaxing (score 50.2) +🥉 #6 Captain Maverick (score 50.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 2 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Benzino: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; recent form quality (score 85/100) +- #2 Chillaxing: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Captain Maverick: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 70/100); track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Benzino | 58.5 | 0.2693 | 0.5378 | barrier, jockey, form, weight, condition | +| 2 | 2 | Chillaxing | 50.2 | 0.1348 | 0.6588 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, tra | +| 3 | 6 | Captain Maverick | 50.1 | 0.1337 | 0.7263 | barrier, form, track, weight, jockey, pa | +| 4 | 4 | Lennox | 48.9 | 0.121 | 0.7911 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, condition | +| 5 | 13 | Sunny Disposition | 41.9 | 0.0675 | 0.8517 | barrier, form, pace, weight, condition, | +| 6 | 11 | Southby | 41.4 | 0.0648 | 0.894 | barrier, form, pace, weight, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 3 — Country Music Raceday 15 August Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 4 — Droulers Chez Pockette Cup 3Yo Handicap +1000m | Good | 3YO OPEN | Start 2026-08-08T03:23:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Boonie Boom (score 76.1) +🥈 #11 Tale Of Tass (score 64.7) +🥉 #2 Touch Base (score 59.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 11 → 2 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Boonie Boom: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #11 Tale Of Tass: track-condition suitability; fitness; recent form quality (score 95/100) +- #2 Touch Base: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Boonie Boom | 76.1 | 0.4212 | 0.6915 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 2 | 11 | Tale Of Tass | 64.7 | 0.1629 | 0.7766 | condition, fitness, form, barrier, pace, | +| 3 | 2 | Touch Base | 59.7 | 0.1074 | 0.8294 | distance, condition, jockey, form, barri | +| 4 | 1 | Star Of Jamaica | 56.9 | 0.085 | 0.8793 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 5 | 6 | Maria Clara | 51.2 | 0.0529 | 0.926 | form, barrier, jockey, pace, weight, con | +| 6 | 8 | Queen Olympias | 50.5 | 0.0499 | 0.9532 | form, jockey, barrier, pace, weight, con | + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 5 — Mekka Raceday 22 August BM72 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 6 — Drinkwise No Metro Wins Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 7 — Sky Racing Benchmark 78 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 8 — Xxxx Class 6 Handicap +1200m | Good | 3YO+ CL6 | Start 2026-08-08T05:48:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Bossed Up (score 61.3) +🥈 #2 Cosmo Centaurus (score 52.2) +🥉 #1 Pre Eminence (score 51.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 2 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Bossed Up: historical distance performance; track_distance; track-condition suitability +- #2 Cosmo Centaurus: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance +- #1 Pre Eminence: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 69/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Bossed Up | 61.3 | 0.3106 | 0.5957 | distance, track_distance, condition, bar | +| 2 | 2 | Cosmo Centaurus | 52.2 | 0.1455 | 0.6974 | barrier, weight, distance, form, fitness | +| 3 | 1 | Pre Eminence | 51.7 | 0.1396 | 0.7612 | barrier, condition, form, distance, weig | +| 4 | 10 | Fragile Love | 47.9 | 0.1017 | 0.8204 | form, barrier, track, track_distance, pa | +| 5 | 11 | Surprise Honey | 42.3 | 0.0638 | 0.8762 | track, condition, track_distance, jockey | +| 6 | 6 | Ser Joh | 41.4 | 0.0592 | 0.9226 | weight, jockey, track, condition, barrie | + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 9 — Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Open Handicap +1400m | Good | OPEN | Start 2026-08-08T06:27:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 Express Payment (score 63.8) +🥈 #1 Anemacore (score 56.3) +🥉 #6 Space Tracker (score 40.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 1 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 Express Payment: historical distance performance; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Anemacore: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance +- #6 Space Tracker: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | Express Payment | 63.8 | 0.3835 | 0.6428 | distance, track_distance, barrier, form, | +| 2 | 1 | Anemacore | 56.3 | 0.2053 | 0.6947 | condition, weight, distance, track, form | +| 3 | 6 | Space Tracker | 40.3 | 0.0541 | 0.7425 | barrier, jockey, condition, distance, tr | +| 4 | 5 | Rising Pacific | 39.8 | 0.0519 | 0.7886 | barrier, distance, condition, weight, tr | +| 5 | 3 | Tenzing | 38.8 | 0.0477 | 0.8333 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 2 | Sibaaq | 38.4 | 0.0462 | 0.8762 | distance, weight, condition, barrier, tr | + +--- + +### Gladstone — Race 1 +Good | Start 2026-08-08T03:15:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Magic Valour (score 67.3) +🥈 #6 Power Maiden (score 57.1) +🥉 #1 Fast 'N' Fancy (score 54.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 6 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Magic Valour: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 85/100) +- #6 Power Maiden: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 73/100) +- #1 Fast 'N' Fancy: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Magic Valour | 67.3 | 0.3899 | 0.6896 | track, condition, form, barrier, jockey, | +| 2 | 6 | Power Maiden | 57.1 | 0.1667 | 0.8183 | track, condition, form, barrier, weight, | +| 3 | 1 | Fast 'N' Fancy | 54.4 | 0.1331 | 0.8747 | track, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 3 | Egyptian Lass | 54.0 | 0.1287 | 0.9293 | form, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 2 | Soul Brother | 44.1 | 0.0564 | 0.9774 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 4 | Stella Boo | 43.7 | 0.0546 | 1.0 | weight, condition, barrier, jockey, form | + +--- + +### Gladstone — Race 2 +Good | Start 2026-08-08T04:00:00Z | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 I Want It All (score 57.1) +🥈 #1 Malbec Man (score 52.2) +🥉 #3 Not Happening (score 52.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 0.933) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 I Want It All: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Malbec Man: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Not Happening: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 69/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | I Want It All | 57.1 | 0.374 | 0.8711 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 1 | Malbec Man | 52.2 | 0.2486 | 0.9596 | track, condition, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 3 | Not Happening | 52.2 | 0.2486 | 1.0 | condition, form, weight, barrier, pace, | +| 4 | 4 | Grit 'N' Glory | 39.8 | 0.0885 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 5 | Cinchicated | 30.4 | 0.0404 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | + +--- + +### Gladstone — Race 3 +Good | Start 2026-08-08T04:45:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Cosmic Proportions (score 57.2) +🥈 #1 Borneo (score 49.7) +🥉 #3 Serial Offender (score 44.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Cosmic Proportions: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 82/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #1 Borneo: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 75/100) +- #3 Serial Offender: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Cosmic Proportions | 57.2 | 0.3414 | 0.6456 | track, form, jockey, barrier, weight, pa | +| 2 | 1 | Borneo | 49.7 | 0.1827 | 0.7602 | barrier, weight, form, track, pace, fitn | +| 3 | 3 | Serial Offender | 44.8 | 0.1215 | 0.8409 | condition, barrier, weight, jockey, pace | +| 4 | 8 | Viking Sun | 44.1 | 0.1146 | 0.9087 | track, condition, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 5 | Stromboli Delight | 39.9 | 0.0807 | 0.9637 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 7 | Kettlebell | 37.8 | 0.0678 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | + +--- + +### Gladstone — Race 4 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gladstone — Race 5 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 1 — Jjj Racing Cg&E Maiden Handicap +1300m | Good | MDN CG | Start 2026-08-08T02:25:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Skystone (score 59.6) +🥈 #1 Argansort (score 52.4) +🥉 #2 Odin's Eye (score 45.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 1 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.926) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Skystone: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 69/100) +- #1 Argansort: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Odin's Eye: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Skystone | 59.6 | 0.41 | 0.7659 | track, barrier, form, weight, jockey, pa | +| 2 | 1 | Argansort | 52.4 | 0.225 | 0.8508 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 2 | Odin's Eye | 45.9 | 0.1309 | 0.9257 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, | +| 4 | 6 | Over The Mountain | 40.7 | 0.0849 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 7 | Wonka | 39.2 | 0.0749 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 6 | 5 | Barr Turn | 39.1 | 0.0743 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 2 — Bluestone Building F&M Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 3 — Master Builders Association BM64 +2000m | Good | 3YO+ BM64 | Start 2026-08-08T03:35:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Gemtiki (score 58.5) +🥈 #4 Longinus (score 53.4) +🥉 #1 Majorian (score 45.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 4 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Gemtiki: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100) +- #4 Longinus: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Majorian: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 60/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Gemtiki | 58.5 | 0.3703 | 0.742 | track, barrier, form, jockey, weight, pa | +| 2 | 4 | Longinus | 53.4 | 0.2421 | 0.8622 | distance, barrier, weight, form, pace, j | +| 3 | 1 | Majorian | 45.9 | 0.1296 | 0.9346 | barrier, weight, form, pace, distance, t | +| 4 | 2 | Celebrity | 45.0 | 0.1202 | 1.0 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, fitnes | +| 5 | 3 | Kirkuk | 38.9 | 0.0723 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track, form, jock | +| 6 | 7 | Zizette | 37.7 | 0.0654 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 4 — Your Next Stop Wests Illawarra BM68 +1200m | Good | BM68 | Start 2026-08-08T04:10:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Zaragoza (score 58.0) +🥈 #4 C'Mon Mate (score 44.7) +🥉 #5 Up The Front (score 43.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 4 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 73/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Zaragoza: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record +- #4 C'Mon Mate: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track_distance; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Up The Front: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Zaragoza | 58.0 | 0.4198 | 0.6849 | track_distance, barrier, track, weight, | +| 2 | 4 | C'Mon Mate | 44.7 | 0.1386 | 0.7842 | barrier, track_distance, weight, conditi | +| 3 | 5 | Up The Front | 43.6 | 0.1265 | 0.8704 | barrier, jockey, condition, weight, trac | +| 4 | 1 | Gunroom | 40.7 | 0.0993 | 0.9253 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, jockey | +| 5 | 2 | Satness | 39.0 | 0.0862 | 0.9644 | weight, barrier, track_distance, distanc | +| 6 | 7 | Change The Date | 33.6 | 0.055 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, conditi | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 5 — Jansz Midway Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 6 — Private Drivers Online Super Maiden +1000m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-08T05:25:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 Majestic Legend (score 58.7) +🥈 #13 Yamashita (score 45.5) +🥉 #3 Lady Talea (score 43.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 13 → 3 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 72/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.926) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 Majestic Legend: track-specific record; track_distance; historical distance performance +- #13 Yamashita: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Lady Talea: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | Majestic Legend | 58.7 | 0.3824 | 0.6184 | track, track_distance, distance, barrier | +| 2 | 13 | Yamashita | 45.5 | 0.1273 | 0.7119 | distance, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, | +| 3 | 3 | Lady Talea | 43.6 | 0.1087 | 0.7945 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form, con | +| 4 | 6 | Mille Feuille | 41.8 | 0.0935 | 0.8692 | barrier, jockey, weight, condition, pace | +| 5 | 4 | Spud Gun | 40.3 | 0.0825 | 0.925 | weight, pace, barrier, form | +| 6 | 12 | Piaffe | 39.1 | 0.0747 | 0.973 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 7 — Omnimodal Logistics Cg&E BM64 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 8 — Shore Goggles F&M BA64 Handicap +1400m | Good | BM64 FM | Start 2026-08-08T06:40:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Cuesta (score 61.3) +🥈 #11 Ciao Bella Mia (score 49.7) +🥉 #8 Think I Do (score 49.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 11 → 8 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Cuesta: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #11 Ciao Bella Mia: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 88/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #8 Think I Do: track-specific record; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Cuesta | 61.3 | 0.4115 | 0.7206 | distance, track, barrier, condition, wei | +| 2 | 11 | Ciao Bella Mia | 49.7 | 0.1565 | 0.8058 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, j | +| 3 | 8 | Think I Do | 49.4 | 0.1526 | 0.8803 | track, jockey, weight, barrier, pace, fo | +| 4 | 1 | Canny Queen | 42.4 | 0.0852 | 0.9536 | weight, barrier, distance, pace, fitness | +| 5 | 10 | Peschiera | 40.8 | 0.0745 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, form, j | +| 6 | 3 | Mighty Myrtle | 40.6 | 0.0733 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, condition | + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 1 — Mildura Motor Holdings Maiden Plate +1900m | Good | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-08T03:11:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Spicy Apple (score 62.6) +🥈 #1 Affinedeel (score 55.0) +🥉 #3 Glouf (score 51.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Spicy Apple: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #1 Affinedeel: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #3 Glouf: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 68/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Spicy Apple | 62.6 | 0.3506 | 0.6722 | track, barrier, jockey, form, weight, pa | +| 2 | 1 | Affinedeel | 55.0 | 0.1861 | 0.7796 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 3 | Glouf | 51.2 | 0.1356 | 0.8668 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 6 | Where Eagles Dare | 48.4 | 0.1074 | 0.9497 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 4 | Specky Boy | 45.9 | 0.0872 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 6 | 2 | Bouchereign | 45.3 | 0.0829 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form | + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 2 — Mildura & District Real Estate Maiden +1400m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-08T03:46:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Rebel's Idol (score 55.7) +🥈 #2 I'Lberidin'Shotgun (score 49.8) +🥉 #7 Classic Cracker (score 49.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.972) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Rebel's Idol: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 I'Lberidin'Shotgun: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 66/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Classic Cracker: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Rebel's Idol | 55.7 | 0.2715 | 0.5955 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 2 | I'Lberidin'Shotgun | 49.8 | 0.166 | 0.7144 | weight, form, barrier, jockey, condition | +| 3 | 7 | Classic Cracker | 49.2 | 0.1579 | 0.8056 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 4 | 10 | Massalia | 45.8 | 0.119 | 0.8915 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 5 | 1 | Brazen Warrior | 42.6 | 0.0911 | 0.9668 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 6 | 3 | King Fleance | 41.9 | 0.086 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 3 — Mallee Big Screen Hire Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 4 — Mildura Gateway BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 5 — The Jade Benham Mp BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 6 — Ausloans Mildura BM56 Handicap +1400m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-08T06:11:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Attain (score 53.3) +🥈 #3 Tyndrum Gold (score 43.9) +🥉 #5 Hydrogen Power (score 43.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Attain: track-specific record; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Tyndrum Gold: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Hydrogen Power: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Attain | 53.3 | 0.254 | 0.4813 | track, track_distance, barrier, weight, | +| 2 | 3 | Tyndrum Gold | 43.9 | 0.116 | 0.5796 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 3 | 5 | Hydrogen Power | 43.4 | 0.1113 | 0.6677 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 4 | 10 | Limbering | 41.9 | 0.0982 | 0.7341 | form, barrier, weight, track_distance, p | +| 5 | 8 | Bow Ribbon | 40.6 | 0.0881 | 0.7978 | weight, form, condition, pace, jockey, b | +| 6 | 6 | Phoebe Buffay | 37.2 | 0.0664 | 0.8531 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, condition | + +--- + +### Mildura — Race 7 — Bet365 Top Finishes BM56 Handicap +1200m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-08T06:51:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Decanted (score 51.3) +🥈 #3 Bower Boy (score 40.1) +🥉 #7 Sweatband (score 39.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 3 → 7 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Decanted: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 61/100) +- #3 Bower Boy: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Sweatband: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Decanted | 51.3 | 0.2926 | 0.5171 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, pace, con | +| 2 | 3 | Bower Boy | 40.1 | 0.1151 | 0.6238 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, conditi | +| 3 | 7 | Sweatband | 39.5 | 0.1094 | 0.7288 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 4 | 10 | Squagaga | 39.2 | 0.1067 | 0.8154 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 5 | 1 | Orthie's Boys | 39.0 | 0.105 | 0.8945 | weight, barrier, condition, pace, form, | +| 6 | 5 | Stylish Sparkle | 36.7 | 0.0867 | 0.9516 | weight, barrier, fitness, pace, form, co | + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 1 — Winning Edge Presentations Handicap +1050m | Soft | 3YO BM66 | Start 2026-08-08T02:31:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Pretty Baby (score 60.5) +🥈 #6 Azytass (score 50.5) +🥉 #2 Chica Astuta (score 45.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 6 → 2 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.937) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Pretty Baby: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 82/100) +- #6 Azytass: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100) +- #2 Chica Astuta: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Pretty Baby | 60.5 | 0.4562 | 0.7798 | condition, barrier, form, weight, jockey | +| 2 | 6 | Azytass | 50.5 | 0.1983 | 0.8464 | jockey, barrier, form, weight, pace, cla | +| 3 | 2 | Chica Astuta | 45.0 | 0.1254 | 0.9037 | barrier, weight, pace, form, class | +| 4 | 7 | Dirty Poker | 37.4 | 0.0665 | 0.9546 | barrier, pace, weight | +| 5 | 4 | Inhabit | 35.6 | 0.0573 | 1.0 | barrier, fitness, weight, pace, form, co | +| 6 | 3 | Tully Rapids | 34.2 | 0.051 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 2 — Sportsbet Feed Handicap +1600m | Soft | BM78 | Start 2026-08-08T03:07:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Brave Star (score 51.9) +🥈 #5 Kengero (score 47.4) +🥉 #1 Snoopy Now (score 44.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 5 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Brave Star: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 79/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #5 Kengero: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 72/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Snoopy Now: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track_distance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Brave Star | 51.9 | 0.2582 | 0.5762 | barrier, form, jockey, weight, condition | +| 2 | 5 | Kengero | 47.4 | 0.1775 | 0.6913 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, con | +| 3 | 1 | Snoopy Now | 44.6 | 0.1405 | 0.7954 | weight, barrier, track_distance, distanc | +| 4 | 4 | Willybeafactor | 42.2 | 0.1151 | 0.8828 | form, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 8 | Lucky Lucky Boom | 41.0 | 0.1041 | 0.958 | barrier, form, condition, pace, weight, | +| 6 | 7 | Phineas | 38.9 | 0.0874 | 1.0 | barrier, distance, weight, pace, form, j | + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 3 — Sportsbet More Places Handicap +2057m | Soft | BM78 | Start 2026-08-08T03:42:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Jandami (score 58.9) +🥈 #6 Flash Alice (score 52.4) +🥉 #1 Placo (score 50.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 6 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Jandami: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Flash Alice: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; recent form quality (score 75/100) +- #1 Placo: recent form quality (score 77/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Jandami | 58.9 | 0.261 | 0.5392 | track, condition, barrier, form, weight, | +| 2 | 6 | Flash Alice | 52.4 | 0.1518 | 0.629 | barrier, jockey, form, condition, track, | +| 3 | 1 | Placo | 50.2 | 0.1264 | 0.7013 | form, barrier, weight, jockey, condition | +| 4 | 11 | Reciprocal | 46.1 | 0.0898 | 0.7615 | barrier, form, condition, pace, weight, | +| 5 | 7 | Ninyo | 43.5 | 0.0723 | 0.8174 | barrier, form, pace, weight, jockey, con | +| 6 | 2 | Stirrup Cup | 41.3 | 0.0602 | 0.8663 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 4 — Croser Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 5 — Fleurieu Milk Company Handicap +1050m | Soft | 4YO+ BM0-64 | Start 2026-08-08T04:52:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 First Division (score 59.4) +🥈 #4 Dampen (score 55.0) +🥉 #1 Grand Host (score 52.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 4 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 First Division: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #4 Dampen: historical distance performance; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Grand Host: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | First Division | 59.4 | 0.2771 | 0.6187 | distance, track, track_distance, form, b | +| 2 | 4 | Dampen | 55.0 | 0.192 | 0.6981 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 3 | 1 | Grand Host | 52.0 | 0.1496 | 0.7564 | barrier, form, weight, distance, track_d | +| 4 | 6 | Extremely Rowdy | 44.4 | 0.0794 | 0.8058 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 5 | 5 | Miss Cotoletta | 40.7 | 0.0583 | 0.8524 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 6 | 12 | One Kind | 38.7 | 0.0494 | 0.899 | distance, pace, weight, condition, barri | + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 6 — Adelaide Galvanising Industries Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 7 — Sportsbet Behemoth Stakes +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 8 — Peter Elberg Funerals Handicap +1200m | Soft | BM66 | Start 2026-08-08T06:47:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Justacclaim (score 66.8) +🥈 #7 Daisydoo (score 50.6) +🥉 #8 Hooked On Wealth (score 50.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 7 → 8 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Justacclaim: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #7 Daisydoo: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #8 Hooked On Wealth: track_distance; recent form quality (score 67/100); historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Justacclaim | 66.8 | 0.4701 | 0.7118 | distance, track, track_distance, form, b | +| 2 | 7 | Daisydoo | 50.6 | 0.1219 | 0.7845 | distance, condition, barrier, track, wei | +| 3 | 8 | Hooked On Wealth | 50.4 | 0.1198 | 0.8264 | track_distance, form, distance, track, w | +| 4 | 2 | Metrical | 44.4 | 0.0727 | 0.8656 | weight, barrier, form, distance, pace, c | +| 5 | 6 | Howl | 37.8 | 0.0419 | 0.9011 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 6 | 13 | Layin' Up | 37.0 | 0.0392 | 0.9355 | form, barrier, weight, distance, pace, c | + +--- + +### Morphettville — Race 9 — Aceit Transport Solutions Handicap +1600m | Soft | BM0-66 | Start 2026-08-08T07:22:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Cradle Of Jazz (score 62.3) +🥈 #9 Stolen Kiss (score 49.1) +🥉 #7 Full Commitment (score 45.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 9 → 7 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 73/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Cradle Of Jazz: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #9 Stolen Kiss: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 65/100) +- #7 Full Commitment: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 73/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Cradle Of Jazz | 62.3 | 0.3626 | 0.5735 | distance, track, track_distance, form, c | +| 2 | 9 | Stolen Kiss | 49.1 | 0.1207 | 0.6622 | distance, barrier, form, weight, pace, c | +| 3 | 7 | Full Commitment | 45.6 | 0.0902 | 0.736 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 4 | 10 | Spangled Sipper | 45.4 | 0.0887 | 0.798 | barrier, condition, distance, weight, fo | +| 5 | 11 | Astrodean | 43.2 | 0.0738 | 0.8496 | form, jockey, barrier, pace, weight, con | +| 6 | 4 | Wild Winner | 41.1 | 0.062 | 0.8885 | condition, distance, barrier, weight, tr | + +--- + +### Nanango — Race 1 +800m | Good | BM0-55 | Start 2026-08-08T02:45:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Embezzles (score 51.6) +🥈 #2 Levar (score 46.4) +🥉 #4 Luminous Waters (score 44.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 2 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Embezzles: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 69/100); track-condition suitability +- #2 Levar: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Luminous Waters: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Embezzles | 51.6 | 0.2506 | 0.5554 | barrier, form, condition, weight, jockey | +| 2 | 2 | Levar | 46.4 | 0.1625 | 0.6361 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, jock | +| 3 | 4 | Luminous Waters | 44.8 | 0.1422 | 0.6989 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, form | +| 4 | 9 | Late Night Talking | 38.0 | 0.0807 | 0.7577 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, condition | +| 5 | 8 | Super Exceptional | 35.0 | 0.0628 | 0.8146 | track, weight, pace, jockey, condition, | +| 6 | 1 | No Better Affaire | 34.2 | 0.0588 | 0.8673 | weight, barrier, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Nanango — Race 2 +1000m | Good | OPEN | Start 2026-08-08T03:20:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Jack Be Lucky (score 53.9) +🥈 #2 Galway Hussler (score 42.5) +🥉 #8 Amphawa (score 39.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 2 → 8 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Jack Be Lucky: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Galway Hussler: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #8 Amphawa: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Jack Be Lucky | 53.9 | 0.386 | 0.6505 | track, weight, barrier, form, condition, | +| 2 | 2 | Galway Hussler | 42.5 | 0.1493 | 0.7506 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 3 | 8 | Amphawa | 39.4 | 0.1153 | 0.8241 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 3 | City Chick | 37.7 | 0.1001 | 0.8934 | jockey, barrier, condition, weight, pace | +| 5 | 5 | Harbour Gold | 34.0 | 0.0735 | 0.9562 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 6 | 7 | Don't Tell Leeanne | 33.3 | 0.0693 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, condition | + +--- + +### Nanango — Race 3 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Nanango — Race 4 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Nanango — Race 5 +1200m | Good | BM0-50 | Start 2026-08-08T05:10:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Capiana (score 46.9) +🥈 #13 Flawless Ambition (score 41.7) +🥉 #5 Koga Ninja (score 36.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 13 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Capiana: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #13 Flawless Ambition: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Koga Ninja: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Capiana | 46.9 | 0.2322 | 0.4764 | barrier, weight, condition, form, pace, | +| 2 | 13 | Flawless Ambition | 41.7 | 0.1506 | 0.567 | barrier, jockey, weight, condition, pace | +| 3 | 5 | Koga Ninja | 36.0 | 0.0936 | 0.643 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, tra | +| 4 | 6 | Outdoor Cat | 35.6 | 0.0906 | 0.709 | weight, barrier, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 5 | 10 | Above The World | 33.5 | 0.076 | 0.7728 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, tra | +| 6 | 9 | Letters Of Romance | 31.8 | 0.066 | 0.8306 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Nanango — Race 6 +Good | Start 2026-08-08T05:40:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Aces Up (score 56.9) +🥈 #9 Rapid Dude (score 46.1) +🥉 #1 Grinzinger Knight (score 45.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 9 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Aces Up: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 85/100); track-specific record +- #9 Rapid Dude: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 66/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Grinzinger Knight: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 61/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Aces Up | 56.9 | 0.3695 | 0.665 | barrier, form, track, jockey, weight, pa | +| 2 | 9 | Rapid Dude | 46.1 | 0.1502 | 0.7632 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, con | +| 3 | 1 | Grinzinger Knight | 45.7 | 0.1453 | 0.8506 | barrier, weight, form, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 4 | Ariat | 41.0 | 0.0982 | 0.9063 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 5 | 11 | Mekanic | 39.6 | 0.0874 | 0.9559 | form, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 6 | 7 | Bitoftheblarney | 34.2 | 0.0557 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 1 — Midway Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 2 — Tab Highway Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 3 — Precise Air Handicap +1400m | Soft 5 | 3-4YO BM72 | Start 2026-08-08T02:40:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Avista (score 66.0) +🥈 #7 Mind Ya Bizz (score 58.7) +🥉 #9 Blenheim Girl (score 58.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 7 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Avista: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 94/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Mind Ya Bizz: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 86/100); track-condition suitability +- #9 Blenheim Girl: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; fitness + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Avista | 66.0 | 0.292 | 0.6072 | condition, form, barrier, jockey, fitnes | +| 2 | 7 | Mind Ya Bizz | 58.7 | 0.1589 | 0.7331 | distance, form, condition, jockey, barri | +| 3 | 9 | Blenheim Girl | 58.5 | 0.1563 | 0.8127 | distance, barrier, fitness, condition, f | +| 4 | 3 | Persian Wonder | 55.9 | 0.1259 | 0.8784 | distance, condition, form, barrier, weig | +| 5 | 4 | Cobra Club | 50.4 | 0.0796 | 0.9359 | distance, barrier, form, weight, jockey, | +| 6 | 2 | Nullarbor Jane | 48.1 | 0.0657 | 0.9818 | barrier, form, weight, condition, pace, | + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 4 — Myplates Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 5 — Mm Electrical Handicap +1600m | Good 4 | 3YO+ BM78 | Start 2026-08-08T03:50:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #14 Leovanni (score 72.8) +🥈 #4 The Mona Lisa (score 61.8) +🥉 #1 The Creator (score 56.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 14 → 4 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #14 Leovanni: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #4 The Mona Lisa: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 94/100) +- #1 The Creator: track-specific record; track_distance; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 14 | Leovanni | 72.8 | 0.3763 | 0.6203 | distance, track, track_distance, form, b | +| 2 | 4 | The Mona Lisa | 61.8 | 0.1504 | 0.6873 | track_distance, barrier, form, track, we | +| 3 | 1 | The Creator | 56.1 | 0.0936 | 0.7521 | track, track_distance, weight, barrier, | +| 4 | 9 | Puntin | 52.1 | 0.067 | 0.8138 | distance, track_distance, condition, wei | +| 5 | 7 | Warrior For Peace | 51.7 | 0.0648 | 0.875 | barrier, form, track, weight, distance, | +| 6 | 11 | Champagne Hero | 51.1 | 0.0617 | 0.9322 | distance, barrier, form, weight, pace, c | + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 6 — Ranvet Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 7 — Tab Premier's Cup Prelude +1800m | Good 4 | 3YO+ OPEN | Start 2026-08-08T05:00:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Tazima (score 67.8) +🥈 #14 Boniface (score 63.7) +🥉 #1 Eliyass (score 46.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 14 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Tazima: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #14 Boniface: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #1 Eliyass: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Tazima | 67.8 | 0.4072 | 0.7678 | distance, track, track_distance, form, j | +| 2 | 14 | Boniface | 63.7 | 0.2893 | 0.8262 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 3 | 1 | Eliyass | 46.9 | 0.0713 | 0.8632 | barrier, condition, weight, track, fitne | +| 4 | 4 | Belvedere Boys | 44.5 | 0.0584 | 0.8952 | barrier, jockey, condition, weight, trac | +| 5 | 10 | Tuff Tu Mus | 39.0 | 0.0369 | 0.924 | barrier, condition, pace, weight, fitnes | +| 6 | 11 | Poison Chalice | 37.3 | 0.0321 | 0.9451 | barrier, distance, pace, weight, form, c | + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 8 — Kia Ora Stud Missile Stakes +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 9 — Toyota Forklifts Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Randwick — Race 10 — Chandon Handicap +1200m | Good 4 | 3YO+ BM78 CG | Start 2026-08-08T06:55:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Columbia Blue (score 60.5) +🥈 #1 Ready To Shine (score 53.6) +🥉 #4 Watson (score 50.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Columbia Blue: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 73/100) +- #1 Ready To Shine: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Watson: weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Columbia Blue | 60.5 | 0.32 | 0.6357 | distance, barrier, form, weight, conditi | +| 2 | 1 | Ready To Shine | 53.6 | 0.1801 | 0.737 | distance, barrier, weight, form, jockey, | +| 3 | 4 | Watson | 50.2 | 0.1356 | 0.8038 | weight, distance, condition, fitness, ba | +| 4 | 7 | Mafia | 46.7 | 0.1013 | 0.8549 | barrier, form, weight, track_distance, p | +| 5 | 11 | Exit Fee | 41.7 | 0.0668 | 0.9005 | track_distance, barrier, weight, distanc | +| 6 | 2 | King Of Pop | 38.5 | 0.0512 | 0.941 | barrier, weight, track, condition, fitne | + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 1 — 1Equine Weetwood Sept 26 Class 4 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 2 — K&R Plumbing Supplies BM55 Handicap +1300m | Good | BM55 | Start 2026-08-08T07:50:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Knowitall Frank (score 55.6) +🥈 #12 Brave Emma (score 47.8) +🥉 #17 She's Brutal (score 42.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 12 → 17 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Knowitall Frank: historical distance performance; track_distance; weight handling relative to the field +- #12 Brave Emma: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #17 She's Brutal: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 55/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Knowitall Frank | 55.6 | 0.2804 | 0.5171 | distance, track_distance, weight, form, | +| 2 | 12 | Brave Emma | 47.8 | 0.1464 | 0.6016 | track, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, co | +| 3 | 17 | She's Brutal | 42.0 | 0.0903 | 0.6611 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, tra | +| 4 | 9 | Life Of Tree | 41.2 | 0.0845 | 0.7136 | barrier, weight, pace, form, track, jock | +| 5 | 15 | Love To Be Proud | 37.0 | 0.0595 | 0.7652 | form, weight, barrier, pace, jockey, fit | +| 6 | 6 | Anyway You Want It | 35.5 | 0.0525 | 0.8161 | weight, barrier, pace, track, condition, | + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 3 — Florence & Marabel BM65 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 4 — Carpet One Toowoomba Class 2 Handicap +1890m | Good | CL2 | Start 2026-08-08T09:10:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Sealord (score 44.9) +🥈 #3 Blumstien (score 39.9) +🥉 #6 Shot Down By Love (score 39.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Sealord: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 73/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Blumstien: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 Shot Down By Love: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 54/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Sealord | 44.9 | 0.1833 | 0.4249 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 2 | 3 | Blumstien | 39.9 | 0.1208 | 0.5334 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, distance, | +| 3 | 6 | Shot Down By Love | 39.9 | 0.1208 | 0.6374 | barrier, form, jockey, pace, weight, tra | +| 4 | 2 | Empress Aspen | 38.6 | 0.1084 | 0.7338 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 5 | 7 | Dolly Disco | 38.1 | 0.104 | 0.8155 | barrier, pace, form, weight, jockey, con | +| 6 | 5 | Besiege | 37.2 | 0.0965 | 0.8818 | barrier, pace, form, weight, track, cond | + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 5 — Empire Of Japan BM70 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 6 — Laser Clinics Australia Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 7 — Lawrence & Hanson Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 1 — Equus Performance Qtis Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 2 — Hj Constructions BM65 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 3 — Queensland Plastic Surgery BM65 Handicap +1000m | Good 4 | BM65 | Start 2026-08-08T04:14:00Z | 16 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 The Kamikaze (score 52.2) +🥈 #12 Northernontap (score 48.1) +🥉 #10 Thee Creek (score 47.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 12 → 10 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 The Kamikaze: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 71/100) +- #12 Northernontap: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track_distance; historical distance performance +- #10 Thee Creek: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 58/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | The Kamikaze | 52.2 | 0.1464 | 0.3519 | barrier, weight, form, distance, track, | +| 2 | 12 | Northernontap | 48.1 | 0.104 | 0.4484 | barrier, track_distance, distance, weigh | +| 3 | 10 | Thee Creek | 47.8 | 0.1015 | 0.538 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 8 | Impressionism | 47.2 | 0.0965 | 0.6239 | distance, track_distance, weight, track, | +| 5 | 2 | Nolan | 46.3 | 0.0895 | 0.7042 | distance, track_distance, weight, track, | +| 6 | 18 | Unifies | 45.8 | 0.0859 | 0.7668 | barrier, track, weight, form, jockey, co | + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 4 — Belle Property Belle Of The Burdekin +1400m | Good 4 | BM70 FM | Start 2026-08-08T04:49:00Z | 16 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Bianca Mia (score 63.0) +🥈 #14 Miss Moneypenny (score 55.0) +🥉 #4 Kobayastar (score 53.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 14 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Bianca Mia: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #14 Miss Moneypenny: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 81/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Kobayastar: historical distance performance; track_distance; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Bianca Mia | 63.0 | 0.2725 | 0.538 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 2 | 14 | Miss Moneypenny | 55.0 | 0.1399 | 0.6257 | track, form, barrier, jockey, condition, | +| 3 | 4 | Kobayastar | 53.7 | 0.1255 | 0.687 | distance, track_distance, track, weight, | +| 4 | 1 | Colours Of Autumn | 49.4 | 0.0877 | 0.7271 | barrier, weight, jockey, track_distance, | +| 5 | 9 | Emilia Jane | 45.1 | 0.0613 | 0.7652 | barrier, form, weight, condition, jockey | +| 6 | 13 | Lucky Duck | 40.0 | 0.0401 | 0.7989 | barrier, distance, weight, pace, form, c | + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 5 — Magic Millions Townsville Guineas 4Yo +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 6 — Ladbrokes Townsville Cup +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 7 — Ladbrokes Cleveland Bay +1300m | Good 4 | Qlty | Start 2026-08-08T06:44:00Z | 16 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #13 Tambo's Justice (score 64.9) +🥈 #2 Demon Award (score 60.0) +🥉 #17 Betterlucknexttime (score 57.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 13 → 2 → 17 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #13 Tambo's Justice: historical distance performance; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Demon Award: recent form quality (score 97/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #17 Betterlucknexttime: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 77/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 13 | Tambo's Justice | 64.9 | 0.2062 | 0.4519 | distance, track_distance, barrier, track | +| 2 | 2 | Demon Award | 60.0 | 0.1371 | 0.5297 | form, jockey, barrier, weight, distance, | +| 3 | 17 | Betterlucknexttime | 57.2 | 0.1086 | 0.6012 | track_distance, barrier, form, track, di | +| 4 | 11 | Astra Star | 53.2 | 0.0778 | 0.6589 | track, barrier, condition, jockey, form, | +| 5 | 14 | Russian Mint | 52.2 | 0.0716 | 0.7049 | form, track, condition, jockey, barrier, | +| 6 | 1 | Speed Legend | 49.6 | 0.0576 | 0.749 | track_distance, weight, track, barrier, | + +--- + +### Townsville — Race 8 — Great Northern 0 - 55 Handicap +**Skipped:** None diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-09.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-09.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..50fb071188d602e1dd576e735818bafa6d81e549 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-09.md @@ -0,0 +1,584 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-09 + +*Model version 1.2.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:32:06.114868+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Sunshine Coast R2 — MEDIUM (74/100) + 4 → 3 → 5 +2. Sunshine Coast R8 — MEDIUM (74/100) + 4 → 13 → 11 +3. Sunshine Coast R7 — MEDIUM (70/100) + 5 → 7 → 4 +4. Casterton R1 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 9 → 3 → 6 +5. Kalgoorlie R6 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 2 → 1 → 7 +6. Sunshine Coast R5 — MEDIUM (68/100) + 2 → 1 → 6 + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 1 — Brandt Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 2 — Global Turf Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 3 — Sportsbet Feed Maiden Plate +1200m | Good | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-09T03:50:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Miss Exceptional (score 55.8) +🥈 #8 Platinum Rush (score 48.2) +🥉 #2 Big Chev (score 45.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 8 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.926) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Miss Exceptional: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #8 Platinum Rush: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #2 Big Chev: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Miss Exceptional | 55.8 | 0.2751 | 0.5416 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 8 | Platinum Rush | 48.2 | 0.146 | 0.6622 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 3 | 2 | Big Chev | 45.9 | 0.1205 | 0.7668 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 4 | 4 | Neville Bartos | 45.9 | 0.1205 | 0.8638 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 1 | Andauto | 44.2 | 0.1046 | 0.9467 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 6 | 5 | Winsilence | 43.3 | 0.0971 | 0.9767 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 4 — Global Turf Maiden Plate +1000m | Good | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-09T04:30:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #13 Royal Rhino (score 52.7) +🥈 #1 Ottalaus (score 46.2) +🥉 #3 Set Boom (score 44.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 13 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.963) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #13 Royal Rhino: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #1 Ottalaus: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #3 Set Boom: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 13 | Royal Rhino | 52.7 | 0.2027 | 0.4237 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 1 | Ottalaus | 46.2 | 0.1179 | 0.5261 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 3 | 3 | Set Boom | 44.6 | 0.1032 | 0.6267 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 4 | 7 | Lady In Red | 44.5 | 0.1023 | 0.7112 | track, weight, form, pace, barrier, jock | +| 5 | 2 | Points For Effort | 44.3 | 0.1006 | 0.7775 | barrier, weight, form, track, track_dist | +| 6 | 6 | Champagne Ladies | 42.2 | 0.0845 | 0.8417 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 1 — Adam Lindsay Gordon Maiden Hurdle +3500m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ MDN HDLE | Start 2026-08-09T02:50:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Zoom (score 59.8) +🥈 #3 Lodbrok (score 50.5) +🥉 #6 Shogun Express (score 45.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 3 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Zoom: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #3 Lodbrok: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 Shogun Express: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Zoom | 59.8 | 0.3432 | 0.6029 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 2 | 3 | Lodbrok | 50.5 | 0.1581 | 0.6897 | weight, barrier, jockey, form, pace, con | +| 3 | 6 | Shogun Express | 45.2 | 0.1016 | 0.7625 | weight, barrier, condition, pace, jockey | +| 4 | 7 | Sunday Buzz | 43.3 | 0.0868 | 0.8268 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 1 | Brynner | 41.2 | 0.0728 | 0.8869 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, condition | +| 6 | 8 | Thurmond | 39.7 | 0.0643 | 0.946 | weight, barrier, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 2 — Ecycle Solutions Casterton Hurdle +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 3 — Moredun Hill Casterton Chase +3800m | Soft 7 | BM115 STPL | Start 2026-08-09T04:10:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Charlie Messy Hair (score 68.4) +🥈 #5 Nightfall (score 62.7) +🥉 #2 Lucky Chance (score 57.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 5 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Charlie Messy Hair: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #5 Nightfall: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #2 Lucky Chance: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 74/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Charlie Messy Hair | 68.4 | 0.4133 | 0.8371 | distance, track, track_distance, weight, | +| 2 | 5 | Nightfall | 62.7 | 0.2571 | 0.9233 | distance, track, track_distance, weight, | +| 3 | 2 | Lucky Chance | 57.5 | 0.1667 | 0.9634 | weight, barrier, form, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 4 | Christmas | 49.6 | 0.0863 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 5 | 6 | Goondiwindi | 40.4 | 0.0401 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 1 | Bazini | 39.3 | 0.0366 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 4 — Finns Fine Foods 0 - 56 Highweight +1200m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ BM0-56 | Start 2026-08-09T04:50:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Tartan Queen (score 56.7) +🥈 #4 Symphonite (score 50.7) +🥉 #3 Ambello (score 50.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 4 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Tartan Queen: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #4 Symphonite: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 71/100); track-condition suitability +- #3 Ambello: track-specific record; track_distance; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Tartan Queen | 56.7 | 0.3324 | 0.729 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 2 | 4 | Symphonite | 50.7 | 0.2016 | 0.8291 | weight, form, condition, barrier, jockey | +| 3 | 3 | Ambello | 50.3 | 0.195 | 0.922 | track, track_distance, weight, barrier, | +| 4 | 1 | Hughie | 42.3 | 0.1001 | 1.0 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, condition | +| 5 | 2 | Belmasai | 41.4 | 0.0929 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form, distance, c | +| 6 | 5 | Alpinova | 39.3 | 0.078 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, track_distance, c | + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 5 — Bet365 Bet Boost Maiden Plate Highweight +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 6 — Bet365 Bet Boost 0 - 56 Highweight +1400m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ BM0-56 | Start 2026-08-09T06:05:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 State Of Maine (score 47.4) +🥈 #1 Eire To The Jungle (score 41.8) +🥉 #3 Dark Harmony (score 39.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 State Of Maine: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 56/100) +- #1 Eire To The Jungle: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #3 Dark Harmony: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | State Of Maine | 47.4 | 0.2599 | 0.562 | weight, barrier, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 2 | 1 | Eire To The Jungle | 41.8 | 0.163 | 0.6868 | weight, barrier, pace, distance, form, j | +| 3 | 3 | Dark Harmony | 39.9 | 0.1391 | 0.8085 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, distance, | +| 4 | 5 | Gargantuan | 38.6 | 0.1248 | 0.9091 | weight, barrier, pace, form, condition, | +| 5 | 8 | A Blue Star | 38.3 | 0.1217 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track, form, cond | +| 6 | 2 | Stan Tough | 36.0 | 0.1005 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, form, f | + +--- + +### Casterton — Race 7 — Vale Alan Upton 0 - 56 Highweight +2000m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ BM0-56 | Start 2026-08-09T06:40:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Smokin' Rohie (score 61.0) +🥈 #3 Flying Shelby (score 55.2) +🥉 #7 High Class Roller (score 53.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 3 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Smokin' Rohie: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #3 Flying Shelby: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 High Class Roller: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Smokin' Rohie | 61.0 | 0.2607 | 0.5599 | weight, barrier, distance, jockey, form, | +| 2 | 3 | Flying Shelby | 55.2 | 0.1608 | 0.6851 | track, weight, barrier, form, pace, jock | +| 3 | 7 | High Class Roller | 53.4 | 0.1384 | 0.7649 | distance, weight, barrier, condition, jo | +| 4 | 6 | Tudaya | 52.2 | 0.1252 | 0.8448 | weight, barrier, jockey, condition, pace | +| 5 | 2 | Digari | 46.8 | 0.0798 | 0.9044 | weight, barrier, condition, pace, form, | +| 6 | 4 | Octahedron | 46.8 | 0.0798 | 0.9607 | weight, barrier, form, pace, distance, c | + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 1 — Bmgs Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 2 — Aquila Mining Pty Ltd Maiden +1621m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-09T05:00:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Lord Momo (score 55.9) +🥈 #3 Mad Spitfire (score 51.8) +🥉 #6 Leader Of The Pack (score 50.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 3 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Lord Momo: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #3 Mad Spitfire: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Leader Of The Pack: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Lord Momo | 55.9 | 0.2502 | 0.5876 | track, barrier, jockey, weight, form, co | +| 2 | 3 | Mad Spitfire | 51.8 | 0.1778 | 0.7183 | barrier, jockey, weight, condition, trac | +| 3 | 6 | Leader Of The Pack | 50.5 | 0.1596 | 0.8066 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 4 | Peanut Butter | 48.1 | 0.1306 | 0.8845 | barrier, condition, jockey, weight, pace | +| 5 | 7 | Gold Lilly | 43.4 | 0.0883 | 0.9478 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, tra | +| 6 | 1 | Prince Of Bondi | 41.9 | 0.0779 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, tra | + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 3 — Pryce Mining Services Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 4 — Kambalda Football Club Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 5 — Bml Ventures Handicap +1760m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ CL2 | Start 2026-08-09T06:50:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Gold Enigma (score 47.4) +🥈 #4 Eternally Yours (score 39.7) +🥉 #1 Must Be Nice (score 38.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Gold Enigma: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 61/100) +- #4 Eternally Yours: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #1 Must Be Nice: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Gold Enigma | 47.4 | 0.2676 | 0.5402 | barrier, weight, form, track, pace, jock | +| 2 | 4 | Eternally Yours | 39.7 | 0.1408 | 0.6624 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 3 | 1 | Must Be Nice | 38.9 | 0.1318 | 0.7608 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, fit | +| 4 | 3 | Batista | 38.0 | 0.1222 | 0.8529 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 5 | 9 | Ruling Dame | 35.4 | 0.0984 | 0.9427 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, track, | +| 6 | 5 | Subtle Power | 34.6 | 0.0921 | 1.0 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, jockey | + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 6 — Terra Drilling Kambalda Cup +1400m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ OPEN | Start 2026-08-09T07:25:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Monty Zoomer (score 65.1) +🥈 #1 The Jester's Son (score 55.8) +🥉 #7 Playing Games (score 53.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 7 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Monty Zoomer: track-specific record; track_distance; recent form quality (score 95/100) +- #1 The Jester's Son: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record +- #7 Playing Games: track-specific record; track_distance; recent form quality (score 76/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Monty Zoomer | 65.1 | 0.3958 | 0.7338 | track, track_distance, form, condition, | +| 2 | 1 | The Jester's Son | 55.8 | 0.1823 | 0.8347 | track_distance, barrier, track, distance | +| 3 | 7 | Playing Games | 53.9 | 0.1556 | 0.9076 | track, track_distance, form, jockey, bar | +| 4 | 5 | Treble Maker | 48.7 | 0.1009 | 0.9658 | track, barrier, form, pace, weight, cond | +| 5 | 6 | Rainline | 44.8 | 0.0729 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, form, pace, condition, | +| 6 | 4 | Tacito | 42.1 | 0.0582 | 1.0 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, dist | + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 7 — Nouchy Mining Services Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kalgoorlie — Race 8 — Mining Supplies Kambalda Handicap +1400m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ CL2 | Start 2026-08-09T08:35:00Z | 14 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Acoustic Bubbles (score 60.1) +🥈 #3 Sainty Cullity (score 55.7) +🥉 #5 Just Sublime (score 48.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 3 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Acoustic Bubbles: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; recent form quality (score 74/100) +- #3 Sainty Cullity: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100) +- #5 Just Sublime: historical distance performance; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Acoustic Bubbles | 60.1 | 0.2437 | 0.5061 | barrier, track, form, distance, track_di | +| 2 | 3 | Sainty Cullity | 55.7 | 0.1689 | 0.5872 | track_distance, barrier, form, weight, c | +| 3 | 5 | Just Sublime | 48.6 | 0.0935 | 0.6656 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 4 | 1 | Morf | 46.9 | 0.0811 | 0.7262 | distance, weight, barrier, track, pace, | +| 5 | 11 | White Hot | 46.5 | 0.0785 | 0.7839 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, jock | +| 6 | 6 | Alotta Fighting | 43.4 | 0.0606 | 0.8311 | jockey, weight, form, barrier, pace, tra | + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 1 — Tab Maiden Plate +1500m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-09T02:57:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Magic Merlin (score 59.2) +🥈 #6 Strasbelle (score 52.2) +🥉 #1 Gold Earth (score 51.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 6 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.945) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Magic Merlin: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 Strasbelle: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 77/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Gold Earth: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Magic Merlin | 59.2 | 0.3113 | 0.6545 | track, barrier, jockey, condition, weigh | +| 2 | 6 | Strasbelle | 52.2 | 0.1737 | 0.7556 | condition, form, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 1 | Gold Earth | 51.9 | 0.1694 | 0.8433 | condition, barrier, weight, form, pace, | +| 4 | 8 | Trapeazy | 45.7 | 0.1011 | 0.9145 | barrier, jockey, weight, condition, pace | +| 5 | 5 | Maremoto | 44.0 | 0.0877 | 0.9596 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, cla | +| 6 | 3 | Ocean Predator | 41.5 | 0.0712 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 2 — Denbrook Thoroughbreds Maiden Handicap +1280m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-09T03:37:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 I'm Flexible (score 50.2) +🥈 #3 Graffi (score 42.8) +🥉 #5 Nulkaba Star (score 41.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 I'm Flexible: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #3 Graffi: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Nulkaba Star: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | I'm Flexible | 50.2 | 0.2714 | 0.5515 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 3 | Graffi | 42.8 | 0.1465 | 0.6665 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 5 | Nulkaba Star | 41.7 | 0.1336 | 0.7706 | barrier, jockey, weight, distance, track | +| 4 | 4 | Tralee | 39.9 | 0.115 | 0.8647 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 7 | Thirty Degrees | 38.7 | 0.1041 | 0.9528 | barrier, weight, track, pace, form, jock | +| 6 | 2 | Looking The Part | 37.5 | 0.0942 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, distance, track, track_ | + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 3 — Hunter Thoroughbred Breeders Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 4 — Queen Of The Valley Matchmaker F&M BM66 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 5 — Star Turn @ Vinery Stud Class 1 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 6 — Emf Group BM66 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Muswellbrook — Race 7 — Supido @ Www.Widden.Com BM74 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 1 — Pfd Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 2 — Masterfoods Class 2 Handicap +1000m | Good | CL2 | Start 2026-08-09T03:05:00Z | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Don'Tcha Luv'Er (score 68.3) +🥈 #3 Jimmyinthejungle (score 54.2) +🥉 #5 Oohlalouvre (score 52.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 3 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 74/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Don'Tcha Luv'Er: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track_distance +- #3 Jimmyinthejungle: track-specific record; track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #5 Oohlalouvre: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; track-condition suitability; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Don'Tcha Luv'Er | 68.3 | 0.5314 | 0.8416 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 2 | 3 | Jimmyinthejungle | 54.2 | 0.1641 | 0.9287 | track, track_distance, barrier, distance | +| 3 | 5 | Oohlalouvre | 52.8 | 0.146 | 1.0 | jockey, condition, distance, barrier, tr | +| 4 | 1 | Luva Flutta | 46.6 | 0.0871 | 1.0 | weight, distance, track, track_distance, | +| 5 | 6 | Mercatello | 44.2 | 0.0713 | 1.0 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 3 — Primo Class 4 Handicap +1600m | Good | CL4 | Start 2026-08-09T03:45:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Settat (score 48.9) +🥈 #7 Ready Azz Eva (score 43.1) +🥉 #4 Jemoma Alpilage (score 41.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 7 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Settat: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100) +- #7 Ready Azz Eva: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 60/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Jemoma Alpilage: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Settat | 48.9 | 0.3054 | 0.6572 | distance, barrier, form, weight, pace, j | +| 2 | 7 | Ready Azz Eva | 43.1 | 0.1883 | 0.8076 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 4 | Jemoma Alpilage | 41.4 | 0.1635 | 0.9154 | track_distance, barrier, weight, pace, f | +| 4 | 2 | Seneschal | 40.4 | 0.1504 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, track, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 1 | Rock Hard Love | 36.4 | 0.1078 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, jockey, | +| 6 | 5 | Mostro | 33.5 | 0.0846 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, conditi | + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 4 — Pfd Seafood BM62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 5 — Ingham's Qtis 3Yo Maiden Handicap +1200m | Good | 3YO MDN | Start 2026-08-09T05:05:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Sky Jest (score 58.6) +🥈 #1 Eddington (score 48.7) +🥉 #6 Radomir (score 47.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 68/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.926) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Sky Jest: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Eddington: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Radomir: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Sky Jest | 58.6 | 0.3457 | 0.6286 | barrier, form, weight, pace, class | +| 2 | 1 | Eddington | 48.7 | 0.1515 | 0.7399 | condition, barrier, weight, jockey, dist | +| 3 | 6 | Radomir | 47.0 | 0.1315 | 0.8139 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 4 | 7 | Summer Sensation | 45.0 | 0.1113 | 0.8755 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, cla | +| 5 | 15 | Sovereign Style | 40.1 | 0.074 | 0.9312 | weight, pace, barrier, form | +| 6 | 14 | Hit A Lick | 37.9 | 0.0616 | 0.98 | weight, barrier, pace, jockey, form | + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 6 — McCain Open Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 7 — Farm Frites Class 1 Handicap +1400m | Good | CL1 | Start 2026-08-09T06:20:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 El Centro (score 63.7) +🥈 #7 Divine Justice (score 53.5) +🥉 #4 Cantarito (score 51.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 7 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 El Centro: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #7 Divine Justice: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #4 Cantarito: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 71/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | El Centro | 63.7 | 0.297 | 0.5341 | track, barrier, jockey, form, weight, co | +| 2 | 7 | Divine Justice | 53.5 | 0.1269 | 0.6355 | barrier, distance, jockey, condition, we | +| 3 | 4 | Cantarito | 51.8 | 0.1102 | 0.7288 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, jock | +| 4 | 3 | Adranos | 50.8 | 0.1014 | 0.795 | barrier, condition, jockey, weight, pace | +| 5 | 1 | Comin'Hometoyou | 49.8 | 0.0933 | 0.8454 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, condition | +| 6 | 10 | Let'Sgo Hugo | 45.7 | 0.0663 | 0.8917 | track, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, co | + +--- + +### Sunshine Coast — Race 8 — Pfd BM58 Handicap +1200m | Good | BM58 | Start 2026-08-09T06:55:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Col Burn (score 61.8) +🥈 #13 Kelanoa (score 47.1) +🥉 #11 Paper Cowboy (score 45.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 13 → 11 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 74/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Col Burn: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; fitness +- #13 Kelanoa: track_distance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record +- #11 Paper Cowboy: recent form quality (score 82/100); weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Col Burn | 61.8 | 0.4055 | 0.6315 | track, condition, fitness, barrier, jock | +| 2 | 13 | Kelanoa | 47.1 | 0.1191 | 0.7037 | track_distance, barrier, track, weight, | +| 3 | 11 | Paper Cowboy | 45.8 | 0.1069 | 0.761 | form, weight, condition, pace, barrier, | +| 4 | 9 | Pierant | 41.1 | 0.0722 | 0.8154 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 5 | 1 | Limero | 38.3 | 0.0572 | 0.8622 | weight, distance, barrier, pace, track, | +| 6 | 15 | Starsarise | 37.7 | 0.0544 | 0.9029 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-10.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-10.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6cc33eaf8360d14af49a63e11c1972da413a8df1 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-10.md @@ -0,0 +1,591 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-10 + +*Model version 1.1.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:01:20.543151+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Dubbo R3 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 1 → 3 → 11 +2. Kilcoy R3 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 4 → 2 → 6 +3. Nowra R2 — MEDIUM (72/100) + 9 → 5 → 2 +4. Dubbo R4 — MEDIUM (70/100) + 5 → 3 → 4 +5. Kilcoy R4 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 12 → 6 → 9 +6. Nowra R1 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 4 → 8 → 3 +7. Pakenham Synthetic R8 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 3 → 1 → 10 +8. Pakenham Synthetic R2 — MEDIUM (68/100) + 5 → 3 → 4 + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 1 — Inland Petroleum Country Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 2 — Elders Dubbo Rural Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 3 — Aqua West Country Boosted BM58 Handicap +1620m | Heavy 9 | BM58 | Start 2026-08-10T04:40:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Boncapo (score 62.0) +🥈 #3 Strassman (score 46.1) +🥉 #11 Vastly (score 42.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 11 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Boncapo: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Strassman: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 63/100) +- #11 Vastly: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Boncapo | 62.0 | 0.3778 | 0.5544 | track, condition, weight, form, barrier, | +| 2 | 3 | Strassman | 46.1 | 0.1004 | 0.6301 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 11 | Vastly | 42.8 | 0.0763 | 0.6968 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, jock | +| 4 | 2 | Divine Conclusion | 42.7 | 0.0756 | 0.7528 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, tra | +| 5 | 4 | Grande Diablo | 41.2 | 0.0667 | 0.8007 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 6 | 5 | Proclivity | 39.1 | 0.056 | 0.8477 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, condition | + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 4 — Vale Colin Mackintosh BM58 Handicap +1120m | Heavy 9 | BM58 | Start 2026-08-10T05:20:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Torendosetta (score 60.5) +🥈 #3 Ensign Parker (score 50.3) +🥉 #4 Frankie's Shout (score 48.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 3 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Torendosetta: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 94/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Ensign Parker: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 71/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Frankie's Shout: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 68/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Torendosetta | 60.5 | 0.3502 | 0.6265 | condition, form, barrier, weight, track, | +| 2 | 3 | Ensign Parker | 50.3 | 0.1497 | 0.7086 | weight, form, barrier, jockey, condition | +| 3 | 4 | Frankie's Shout | 48.3 | 0.1267 | 0.7726 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 4 | 10 | Miss Karis | 43.1 | 0.0821 | 0.8355 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, form, | +| 5 | 2 | Rothgate | 40.1 | 0.064 | 0.8875 | weight, condition, jockey, pace, form, b | +| 6 | 1 | Street Parade | 39.9 | 0.0629 | 0.9318 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, form, tra | + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 5 — Xxxx Gold Dubbo Cup Sprint Prelude +1120m | Heavy 9 | OPEN | Start 2026-08-10T05:55:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Fetes Des Meres (score 51.2) +🥈 #2 Castlebar Road (score 45.3) +🥉 #8 Crook (score 43.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 2 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Fetes Des Meres: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 61/100) +- #2 Castlebar Road: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100); track-condition suitability +- #8 Crook: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Fetes Des Meres | 51.2 | 0.3107 | 0.659 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, cond | +| 2 | 2 | Castlebar Road | 45.3 | 0.19 | 0.8095 | barrier, form, condition, weight, track, | +| 3 | 8 | Crook | 43.1 | 0.1582 | 0.8935 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 4 | 4 | Wave Breaker | 42.5 | 0.1505 | 0.9572 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, trai | +| 5 | 13 | Enniroc | 35.5 | 0.084 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 11 | Prince Of Sepang | 32.2 | 0.0638 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track, condition, | + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 6 — Precision Health Care Class 2 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Dubbo — Race 7 — Dubbo Gilgandra Toyota Dubbo Cup Prelude +1420m | Heavy 9 | OPEN | Start 2026-08-10T07:10:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Stockholm (score 55.4) +🥈 #11 Nomorenightshift (score 48.2) +🥉 #8 Deion (score 42.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 11 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Stockholm: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #11 Nomorenightshift: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; trainer record +- #8 Deion: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Stockholm | 55.4 | 0.2784 | 0.527 | track, barrier, jockey, weight, form, pa | +| 2 | 11 | Nomorenightshift | 48.2 | 0.1528 | 0.6088 | track, barrier, trainer, jockey, weight, | +| 3 | 8 | Deion | 42.6 | 0.0958 | 0.6853 | barrier, track, condition, weight, pace, | +| 4 | 14 | Red Beryl | 40.7 | 0.0818 | 0.7563 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, track, | +| 5 | 13 | Feirme Prince | 39.9 | 0.0765 | 0.8238 | barrier, weight, pace, track, jockey, fo | +| 6 | 5 | Shamedy | 39.0 | 0.071 | 0.8824 | weight, form, pace, barrier, jockey, tra | + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 1 — Somerset Regional Council 3Yo Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 2 — Ladbrokes Place Extra BM60 Handicap +1900m | Soft 6 | BM60 | Start 2026-08-10T03:40:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Trusty Bandit (score 62.0) +🥈 #4 Cheerful Cat (score 57.0) +🥉 #5 O'Caldino (score 48.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 4 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Trusty Bandit: historical distance performance; track-specific record; recent form quality (score 76/100) +- #4 Cheerful Cat: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #5 O'Caldino: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Trusty Bandit | 62.0 | 0.3464 | 0.6909 | distance, track, form, barrier, weight, | +| 2 | 4 | Cheerful Cat | 57.0 | 0.2283 | 0.8024 | distance, track, barrier, condition, wei | +| 3 | 5 | O'Caldino | 48.9 | 0.1163 | 0.856 | distance, track, barrier, pace, weight, | +| 4 | 8 | Rainbow Glitter | 48.4 | 0.1115 | 0.9053 | distance, track, barrier, pace, weight, | +| 5 | 3 | Social Pariah | 39.6 | 0.0536 | 0.9397 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, traine | +| 6 | 9 | Ucelle | 38.6 | 0.0493 | 0.9704 | barrier, pace, jockey, weight, form, con | + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 3 — Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now BM65 +1500m | Soft 6 | BM65 | Start 2026-08-10T04:13:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Vacillation (score 58.3) +🥈 #2 Drialle (score 42.9) +🥉 #6 Shape Of Water (score 38.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Vacillation: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability +- #2 Drialle: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #6 Shape Of Water: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Vacillation | 58.3 | 0.5483 | 0.8046 | distance, barrier, condition, weight, fo | +| 2 | 2 | Drialle | 42.9 | 0.1519 | 0.8975 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, jockey | +| 3 | 6 | Shape Of Water | 38.4 | 0.1044 | 0.9664 | track, barrier, weight, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 8 | Brooklyn Daisy | 37.0 | 0.0929 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 5 | 5 | Uluwatu | 33.4 | 0.0688 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, jockey | +| 6 | 10 | Pauli | 24.8 | 0.0336 | 1.0 | barrier, pace, weight, form, track, cond | + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 4 — Kilcoy Global Foods Maiden Handicap +1500m | Soft 6 | MDN | Start 2026-08-10T04:48:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #12 Braidwood Rose (score 54.8) +🥈 #6 Successismagic (score 45.0) +🥉 #9 Meade's Cafe (score 41.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 12 → 6 → 9 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #12 Braidwood Rose: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #6 Successismagic: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #9 Meade's Cafe: barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 12 | Braidwood Rose | 54.8 | 0.2855 | 0.5044 | barrier, jockey, pace, weight, form | +| 2 | 6 | Successismagic | 45.0 | 0.1262 | 0.5956 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 3 | 9 | Meade's Cafe | 41.3 | 0.0927 | 0.6845 | barrier, pace, weight, form, jockey | +| 4 | 4 | Rubick's Shadow | 41.1 | 0.0912 | 0.7561 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 5 | 3 | Enjector | 40.8 | 0.0889 | 0.8271 | weight, barrier, condition, pace, form, | +| 6 | 2 | Shrewdness | 38.2 | 0.0716 | 0.8952 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 5 — Ladbrokes Switch Class 1 Handicap +1500m | Soft 6 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-10T05:27:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Tartan Tiger (score 51.9) +🥈 #13 Air Of Authority (score 45.1) +🥉 #5 Brain Wave (score 42.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 13 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Tartan Tiger: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #13 Air Of Authority: recent form quality (score 67/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Brain Wave: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Tartan Tiger | 51.9 | 0.293 | 0.5877 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, pa | +| 2 | 13 | Air Of Authority | 45.1 | 0.1663 | 0.6844 | form, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, cla | +| 3 | 5 | Brain Wave | 42.0 | 0.1284 | 0.7691 | distance, weight, barrier, jockey, pace, | +| 4 | 11 | Lord Danilo | 38.6 | 0.0967 | 0.8444 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, track, | +| 5 | 9 | Skieda | 37.0 | 0.0847 | 0.9012 | weight, pace, jockey, barrier, form, con | +| 6 | 8 | Piggietales | 35.6 | 0.0753 | 0.9547 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 6 — Australian Defence Force Raceday 23 Aug +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kilcoy — Race 7 — Exchange Hotel Kilcoy 0 - 55 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 1 — Next Race Day 20Th September Cg&E Maiden +1100m | Soft | MDN CG | Start 2026-08-10T03:10:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Thirsty For More (score 58.1) +🥈 #8 Power Hungry (score 47.5) +🥉 #3 Wildstone Nature (score 46.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 8 → 3 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.972) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Thirsty For More: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #8 Power Hungry: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; track-specific record +- #3 Wildstone Nature: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Thirsty For More | 58.1 | 0.3321 | 0.5927 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 8 | Power Hungry | 47.5 | 0.1373 | 0.7099 | barrier, distance, track, jockey, weight | +| 3 | 3 | Wildstone Nature | 46.2 | 0.1232 | 0.8177 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 4 | 1 | Pariah Time | 45.6 | 0.1172 | 0.901 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, jockey | +| 5 | 6 | Our Cielo | 44.6 | 0.1078 | 0.9607 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 6 | 2 | Life Young Ever | 41.5 | 0.0833 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 2 — Thank You Bob Young Maiden Plate +1400m | Soft | MDN | Start 2026-08-10T03:50:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Rockabye Roxy (score 60.7) +🥈 #5 Belleistic Bonny (score 48.7) +🥉 #2 Kisembo (score 46.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 5 → 2 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 72/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Rockabye Roxy: track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; recent form quality (score 78/100) +- #5 Belleistic Bonny: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Kisembo: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Rockabye Roxy | 60.7 | 0.3146 | 0.5258 | condition, jockey, form, barrier, distan | +| 2 | 5 | Belleistic Bonny | 48.7 | 0.1157 | 0.6167 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, pa | +| 3 | 2 | Kisembo | 46.4 | 0.0955 | 0.7025 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 4 | 10 | El Cool Gee | 45.8 | 0.0909 | 0.7854 | form, barrier, weight, pace, class | +| 5 | 7 | Little Bobbyloulou | 45.1 | 0.0857 | 0.8592 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 6 | 4 | Step Quick | 44.7 | 0.0829 | 0.9248 | track, weight, barrier, pace, form, jock | + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 3 — Sctc Champion Country Trainer BM58 +1000m | Soft | BM58 | Start 2026-08-10T04:25:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Dancing Mumma (score 59.9) +🥈 #4 Drama Dodger (score 55.3) +🥉 #7 Vantante (score 43.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 4 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Dancing Mumma: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #4 Drama Dodger: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #7 Vantante: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Dancing Mumma | 59.9 | 0.332 | 0.6414 | track, condition, jockey, form, barrier, | +| 2 | 4 | Drama Dodger | 55.3 | 0.2263 | 0.7131 | track, barrier, distance, weight, form, | +| 3 | 7 | Vantante | 43.3 | 0.0832 | 0.7717 | track, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 1 | Getty | 41.5 | 0.0716 | 0.828 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, conditi | +| 5 | 10 | Bonnyville | 39.1 | 0.0587 | 0.8776 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | +| 6 | 9 | Into The Fire | 38.6 | 0.0563 | 0.9211 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, con | + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 4 — Sctc Champion Trainer Matthew Smith BM66 +1600m | Soft | BM66 | Start 2026-08-10T05:05:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Fierceness (score 56.3) +🥈 #7 Win The Day (score 48.4) +🥉 #12 Noble One (score 43.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 7 → 12 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Fierceness: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Win The Day: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #12 Noble One: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Fierceness | 56.3 | 0.2944 | 0.5481 | distance, barrier, weight, form, jockey, | +| 2 | 7 | Win The Day | 48.4 | 0.1524 | 0.6398 | track, barrier, weight, form, pace, jock | +| 3 | 12 | Noble One | 43.5 | 0.1013 | 0.7307 | barrier, jockey, track, weight, pace, co | +| 4 | 6 | Brannum | 42.3 | 0.0917 | 0.8033 | barrier, weight, condition, distance, tr | +| 5 | 8 | More Mischief | 42.2 | 0.0909 | 0.8613 | barrier, weight, form, track, pace, dist | +| 6 | 3 | Tillstrom | 39.5 | 0.0726 | 0.9112 | barrier, weight, jockey, trainer, pace, | + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 5 — Sctc Champion Apprentice Dale Cole +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 6 — Sctc Horse Of The Year Written By Lucy +1100m | Soft | MDN FM | Start 2026-08-10T06:15:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Alabama Charm (score 54.6) +🥈 #6 Zinger (score 50.1) +🥉 #4 Kapolei (score 49.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 6 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.975) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Alabama Charm: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Zinger: recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Kapolei: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Alabama Charm | 54.6 | 0.2388 | 0.5553 | track, barrier, weight, condition, dista | +| 2 | 6 | Zinger | 50.1 | 0.1642 | 0.6875 | form, weight, barrier, pace, class | +| 3 | 4 | Kapolei | 49.2 | 0.1523 | 0.7984 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 4 | 12 | Hammertime | 47.5 | 0.1322 | 0.8728 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 15 | Denise's Gal | 45.4 | 0.111 | 0.9317 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, con | +| 6 | 7 | Bright Promise | 40.6 | 0.0744 | 0.9735 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | + +--- + +### Nowra — Race 7 — Sctc Champion Jockey Alysha Collett BM58 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 1 — Ladbrokes Odds Surge 3Yo Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 2 — Southside Racing Member 3Yo Maiden Plate +1400m | Good | 3YO MDN | Start 2026-08-10T03:00:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 La Reina Vega (score 50.9) +🥈 #3 Crusading Knight (score 40.7) +🥉 #4 Utopic Future (score 39.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 3 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 68/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.852) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 La Reina Vega: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Crusading Knight: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #4 Utopic Future: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | La Reina Vega | 50.9 | 0.3476 | 0.6284 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 2 | 3 | Crusading Knight | 40.7 | 0.1486 | 0.7584 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 3 | 4 | Utopic Future | 39.3 | 0.1322 | 0.8852 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 1 | Activating | 39.1 | 0.13 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 6 | Lady Puissance | 38.8 | 0.1268 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 6 | 2 | Crimson Dynasty | 37.6 | 0.1148 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 3 — Hygain Edge Maiden Plate +1400m | Good | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-10T03:30:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Hit Squad (score 53.8) +🥈 #13 Aru Valley (score 49.8) +🥉 #4 Rip Current (score 45.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 13 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.963) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Hit Squad: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #13 Aru Valley: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Rip Current: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Hit Squad | 53.8 | 0.201 | 0.444 | track, condition, jockey, weight, form, | +| 2 | 13 | Aru Valley | 49.8 | 0.144 | 0.5374 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 4 | Rip Current | 45.3 | 0.099 | 0.6145 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, jockey | +| 4 | 7 | Aurora's Belt | 44.6 | 0.0934 | 0.6878 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 14 | Diamond Storm | 42.3 | 0.0771 | 0.7594 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 6 | 1 | Doublet | 41.7 | 0.0733 | 0.8291 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, jockey | + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 4 — Happy 50Th Roket Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 5 — Designer Coolrooms Maiden Plate +1000m | Good | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-10T04:30:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #14 Them Apples (score 50.3) +🥈 #13 Certain Impact (score 45.0) +🥉 #1 Flamingo Flyer (score 43.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 14 → 13 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.982) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #14 Them Apples: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #13 Certain Impact: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #1 Flamingo Flyer: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 14 | Them Apples | 50.3 | 0.1781 | 0.3954 | jockey, weight, pace, barrier, form | +| 2 | 13 | Certain Impact | 45.0 | 0.1145 | 0.4947 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 3 | 1 | Flamingo Flyer | 43.7 | 0.1028 | 0.5782 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, pa | +| 4 | 6 | Alodie | 43.3 | 0.0994 | 0.6543 | barrier, weight, form, distance, track, | +| 5 | 3 | Midnight Man | 41.2 | 0.0834 | 0.7279 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, jockey | +| 6 | 2 | Last Cent | 40.1 | 0.0761 | 0.8009 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 6 — Dalton Consulting Engineers Handicap +1000m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-10T05:00:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Eternal Joy (score 50.8) +🥈 #2 Grouse Mountain (score 45.3) +🥉 #6 Ruby Avenue (score 43.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 2 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Eternal Joy: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Grouse Mountain: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #6 Ruby Avenue: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Eternal Joy | 50.8 | 0.2422 | 0.5229 | condition, barrier, weight, form, distan | +| 2 | 2 | Grouse Mountain | 45.3 | 0.1532 | 0.6265 | distance, weight, condition, barrier, pa | +| 3 | 6 | Ruby Avenue | 43.1 | 0.1275 | 0.73 | weight, barrier, distance, pace, jockey, | +| 4 | 4 | Bold Print | 40.6 | 0.1035 | 0.8261 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, track, fo | +| 5 | 5 | Fullproof | 40.6 | 0.1035 | 0.9159 | weight, barrier, track, pace, jockey, fo | +| 6 | 9 | Heartattack Jack | 39.7 | 0.0961 | 1.0 | track, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, di | + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 7 — Ladbrokes Pakenham Cup On Sale Handicap +1200m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-10T05:30:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Magnardo (score 58.1) +🥈 #2 Premium Return (score 53.4) +🥉 #5 Ponte Arcobaleno (score 48.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 2 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Magnardo: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; recent form quality (score 85/100) +- #2 Premium Return: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Ponte Arcobaleno: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Magnardo | 58.1 | 0.3154 | 0.6739 | barrier, jockey, form, weight, trainer, | +| 2 | 2 | Premium Return | 53.4 | 0.2132 | 0.7543 | track, condition, weight, barrier, form, | +| 3 | 5 | Ponte Arcobaleno | 48.8 | 0.1453 | 0.8201 | distance, weight, barrier, form, pace, c | +| 4 | 9 | Spirit Angel | 41.7 | 0.0804 | 0.8658 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 8 | Invincible Amour | 39.3 | 0.0658 | 0.9071 | condition, barrier, weight, trainer, pac | +| 6 | 6 | Faceoff | 34.9 | 0.0456 | 0.94 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, jockey, | + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 8 — Duffy & Simon Lawyers Handicap +1600m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-10T06:00:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Butterscotch (score 64.7) +🥈 #1 Oshima (score 54.8) +🥉 #10 Bearbrassblackfish (score 41.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 10 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Butterscotch: historical distance performance; track-specific record; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #1 Oshima: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #10 Bearbrassblackfish: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Butterscotch | 64.7 | 0.4345 | 0.6883 | distance, track, jockey, form, weight, c | +| 2 | 1 | Oshima | 54.8 | 0.1904 | 0.7486 | distance, barrier, weight, form, track, | +| 3 | 10 | Bearbrassblackfish | 41.6 | 0.0634 | 0.7975 | barrier, weight, jockey, distance, pace, | +| 4 | 2 | Bogues | 41.0 | 0.0603 | 0.8457 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 5 | 5 | Fearless Writer | 38.5 | 0.049 | 0.8819 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, condition | +| 6 | 8 | Gen Zed | 38.3 | 0.0481 | 0.9147 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Pakenham Synthetic — Race 9 — Ray White Pakenham & Officer Handicap +**Skipped:** None diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-11.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-11.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..772e94460243765ba370c69efe7548819dabb99a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-11.md @@ -0,0 +1,738 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-11 + +*Model version 1.1.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:12:57.103721+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Broome R2 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 1 → 6 → 4 +2. Dalby R6 — MEDIUM (74/100) + 1 → 4 → 3 +3. Ballarat Synthetic R5 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 2 → 3 → 6 +4. Ballarat Synthetic R6 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 7 → 1 → 9 +5. Broome R6 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 3 → 5 → 9 + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 1 — Global Turf Maiden Plate +2100m | Good | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-11T01:55:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 Preciousmore (score 56.8) +🥈 #2 Fight Like A Raven (score 48.7) +🥉 #3 Full Of Defiance (score 47.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 2 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 Preciousmore: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Fight Like A Raven: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #3 Full Of Defiance: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | Preciousmore | 56.8 | 0.3412 | 0.6696 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 2 | Fight Like A Raven | 48.7 | 0.1737 | 0.7832 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 3 | 3 | Full Of Defiance | 47.3 | 0.1546 | 0.8922 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 6 | Le Plus Rapide | 43.6 | 0.1136 | 0.9514 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, tra | +| 5 | 10 | Eye Tracker | 43.1 | 0.109 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form, jockey | +| 6 | 8 | Star Of Tennyson | 35.8 | 0.0593 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, track, jock | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 2 — Manhari Maiden Plate +1200m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-11T02:25:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Rakiynn (score 54.0) +🥈 #8 Star Of Naantali (score 48.0) +🥉 #9 Sweet Allure (score 45.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 8 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.968) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Rakiynn: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #8 Star Of Naantali: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #9 Sweet Allure: recent form quality (score 69/100); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Rakiynn | 54.0 | 0.3036 | 0.6349 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 8 | Star Of Naantali | 48.0 | 0.1842 | 0.7725 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 9 | Sweet Allure | 45.3 | 0.1471 | 0.8566 | form, weight, barrier, pace, class | +| 4 | 10 | Tennessee Lights | 44.5 | 0.1376 | 0.9334 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, track, fo | +| 5 | 3 | In'Kantosstar | 38.6 | 0.0841 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form, class | +| 6 | 5 | Roll On Big Red | 37.5 | 0.0768 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, track, | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 3 — Brandt BM62 Handicap +1400m | Good | 3YO+ BM62 FM | Start 2026-08-11T03:00:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Just Magic (score 61.2) +🥈 #4 Russian Duchess (score 54.7) +🥉 #1 Tick Tock Lady (score 51.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Just Magic: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Russian Duchess: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Tick Tock Lady: track-condition suitability; trainer record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Just Magic | 61.2 | 0.3593 | 0.7232 | track, condition, barrier, form, weight, | +| 2 | 4 | Russian Duchess | 54.7 | 0.209 | 0.8236 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, jo | +| 3 | 1 | Tick Tock Lady | 51.1 | 0.1549 | 0.8937 | condition, trainer, barrier, weight, joc | +| 4 | 9 | Limbering | 45.9 | 0.1004 | 0.9541 | form, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, con | +| 5 | 6 | Designs Of Eight | 41.6 | 0.0702 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 8 | Written Story | 39.8 | 0.0604 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, conditi | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 4 — Hygain Edge Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 5 — Sportsbet Jockey Watch BM56 Handicap +1500m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-11T04:00:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 No Greater Vue (score 59.1) +🥈 #3 Rookery Nook (score 49.7) +🥉 #6 Pick Wisely (score 45.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 3 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 No Greater Vue: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Rookery Nook: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Pick Wisely: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | No Greater Vue | 59.1 | 0.3015 | 0.5396 | track, barrier, weight, form, condition, | +| 2 | 3 | Rookery Nook | 49.7 | 0.1377 | 0.6383 | track, weight, barrier, condition, pace, | +| 3 | 6 | Pick Wisely | 45.9 | 0.1004 | 0.7314 | barrier, weight, condition, form, pace, | +| 4 | 14 | Eau De Cologne | 45.7 | 0.0987 | 0.8171 | distance, weight, track, barrier, pace, | +| 5 | 1 | Ancho | 45.0 | 0.0931 | 0.8896 | distance, barrier, weight, trainer, pace | +| 6 | 8 | Swycho | 44.0 | 0.0857 | 0.9332 | barrier, weight, distance, track, pace, | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 6 — Hygain Edge BM56 Handicap +1200m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-11T04:30:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Aqua Storm (score 65.8) +🥈 #1 Hellberg (score 56.3) +🥉 #9 Call Me Maura (score 54.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 1 → 9 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Aqua Storm: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #1 Hellberg: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #9 Call Me Maura: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Aqua Storm | 65.8 | 0.3567 | 0.654 | distance, track, condition, form, weight | +| 2 | 1 | Hellberg | 56.3 | 0.1616 | 0.7442 | track, barrier, weight, form, distance, | +| 3 | 9 | Call Me Maura | 54.2 | 0.1357 | 0.8344 | track, condition, barrier, weight, dista | +| 4 | 2 | Thinking Sensation | 49.3 | 0.0902 | 0.9088 | distance, weight, form, barrier, conditi | +| 5 | 8 | Miss Top Gun | 49.3 | 0.0902 | 0.9756 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, pa | +| 6 | 3 | Royal Heritage | 47.0 | 0.0745 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, form, distance, pace, j | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 7 — Manhari BM62 Handicap +1000m | Good | 3YO+ BM62 | Start 2026-08-11T05:00:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Bring Me Power (score 56.3) +🥈 #4 Blondie's Award (score 50.4) +🥉 #5 Prince Marionette (score 44.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Bring Me Power: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #4 Blondie's Award: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 68/100) +- #5 Prince Marionette: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 60/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Bring Me Power | 56.3 | 0.31 | 0.6117 | track, weight, jockey, distance, trainer | +| 2 | 4 | Blondie's Award | 50.4 | 0.1896 | 0.7059 | barrier, weight, form, condition, pace, | +| 3 | 5 | Prince Marionette | 44.1 | 0.1121 | 0.7792 | barrier, weight, form, pace, distance, c | +| 4 | 3 | Strike Gold | 42.0 | 0.0941 | 0.8513 | barrier, weight, distance, track, pace, | +| 5 | 1 | Helluva Barty | 39.0 | 0.0733 | 0.9165 | weight, barrier, pace, condition, form, | +| 6 | 8 | Raging Monkey | 38.8 | 0.0721 | 0.9699 | barrier, form, pace, track, weight, dist | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 8 — Hygain Edge BM62 Handicap +1200m | Good | 3YO+ BM62 | Start 2026-08-11T05:30:00Z | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Tomanado (score 58.1) +🥈 #4 Bonfire Jimmy (score 52.4) +🥉 #2 Impending War (score 48.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 4 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Tomanado: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 98/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Bonfire Jimmy: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Impending War: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Tomanado | 58.1 | 0.4304 | 0.8948 | track, form, barrier, weight, pace, dist | +| 2 | 4 | Bonfire Jimmy | 52.4 | 0.2677 | 0.955 | track, barrier, weight, form, condition, | +| 3 | 2 | Impending War | 48.7 | 0.1967 | 1.0 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, conditi | +| 4 | 8 | Yongtai | 34.5 | 0.0602 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, pace, weight, condition | +| 5 | 3 | Razzo Rosso | 31.0 | 0.045 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 9 — Sportsbet Race Replays BM62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ballarat Synthetic — Race 10 — Hygain Edge BM56 Handicap +1400m | Good | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-11T06:30:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Aka Daka (score 55.7) +🥈 #2 Royal Infantry (score 49.4) +🥉 #13 Ovabent (score 43.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 2 → 13 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Aka Daka: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Royal Infantry: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #13 Ovabent: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 61/100); track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Aka Daka | 55.7 | 0.2731 | 0.5311 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, fo | +| 2 | 2 | Royal Infantry | 49.4 | 0.1616 | 0.6243 | track, weight, barrier, form, jockey, pa | +| 3 | 13 | Ovabent | 43.2 | 0.0964 | 0.7115 | barrier, form, track, pace, weight, cond | +| 4 | 4 | Pacific Jewel | 42.8 | 0.0932 | 0.7756 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, form, c | +| 5 | 5 | Slate Ripper | 42.0 | 0.0872 | 0.8375 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, dis | +| 6 | 9 | Everett | 38.3 | 0.0641 | 0.8784 | jockey, weight, barrier, distance, pace, | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 1 — Tab Country Boosted BM58 Handicap +1590m | Heavy 10 | BM58 | Start 2026-08-11T02:30:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Gavin (score 55.6) +🥈 #7 Ourlegseleven (score 48.7) +🥉 #2 Herald Angel (score 44.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 7 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Gavin: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Ourlegseleven: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Herald Angel: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Gavin | 55.6 | 0.3288 | 0.6487 | barrier, form, weight, distance, track, | +| 2 | 7 | Ourlegseleven | 48.7 | 0.185 | 0.7657 | distance, barrier, weight, form, conditi | +| 3 | 2 | Herald Angel | 44.9 | 0.1348 | 0.8655 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 4 | 4 | Montgomery | 43.2 | 0.117 | 0.9336 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, jockey | +| 5 | 6 | Flash Prince | 41.3 | 0.0999 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 6 | 8 | Manhattan Dress | 36.7 | 0.0681 | 1.0 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 2 — Tab Country Boosted Maiden Plate +1250m | Heavy 10 | MDN | Start 2026-08-11T03:11:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Sorrenti (score 53.6) +🥈 #8 Lagavulin (score 49.1) +🥉 #2 In Bocca Al Lupe (score 44.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 8 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.963) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Sorrenti: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #8 Lagavulin: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 In Bocca Al Lupe: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Sorrenti | 53.6 | 0.3142 | 0.6823 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, cla | +| 2 | 8 | Lagavulin | 49.1 | 0.2159 | 0.832 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 2 | In Bocca Al Lupe | 44.9 | 0.1522 | 0.9212 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 4 | 1 | Bang Its On | 44.7 | 0.1497 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 5 | 7 | Tsunuki | 38.5 | 0.0893 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 5 | Savanna Golden Boy | 37.0 | 0.0788 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 3 — Mulcahy Lawyers & Conveyancers Maiden +1000m | Heavy 10 | MDN | Start 2026-08-11T03:40:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Funky Cold Medina (score 53.0) +🥈 #9 Dramacey (score 45.3) +🥉 #5 Ashkirk (score 44.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 9 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.963) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Funky Cold Medina: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 70/100) +- #9 Dramacey: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Ashkirk: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Funky Cold Medina | 53.0 | 0.3584 | 0.7295 | condition, barrier, form, weight, pace, | +| 2 | 9 | Dramacey | 45.3 | 0.1887 | 0.8919 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 5 | Ashkirk | 44.9 | 0.1825 | 0.9613 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 8 | Checks'n'Balances | 43.5 | 0.1624 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, con | +| 5 | 7 | Togarashi | 33.3 | 0.0694 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 11 | Lucky Crimson | 26.3 | 0.0387 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 4 — McGrath Northern Rivers CL1 & Maiden +1900m | Heavy 10 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-11T04:15:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Coccinella (score 49.6) +🥈 #5 Triple Time (score 44.6) +🥉 #9 Play It Cool (score 37.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 5 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Coccinella: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #5 Triple Time: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #9 Play It Cool: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Coccinella | 49.6 | 0.3004 | 0.6117 | track, weight, condition, form, barrier, | +| 2 | 5 | Triple Time | 44.6 | 0.198 | 0.7133 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 3 | 9 | Play It Cool | 37.9 | 0.1133 | 0.8046 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 4 | 12 | Pressipitating | 36.6 | 0.1017 | 0.8831 | barrier, pace, weight, jockey, form, tra | +| 5 | 7 | Mahuika Maroi | 35.3 | 0.0912 | 0.9536 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 3 | More You Think | 33.5 | 0.0785 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 5 — Ballina Fair Maiden Plate +1400m | Heavy 10 | MDN | Start 2026-08-11T04:55:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Hey Bluey (score 53.3) +🥈 #7 Helluva Road (score 48.2) +🥉 #5 Wasai (score 46.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 7 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Hey Bluey: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #7 Helluva Road: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Wasai: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Hey Bluey | 53.3 | 0.2565 | 0.5747 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 2 | 7 | Helluva Road | 48.2 | 0.1677 | 0.7042 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 5 | Wasai | 46.9 | 0.1505 | 0.8274 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 12 | She's A Dame | 45.1 | 0.1295 | 0.9015 | distance, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, | +| 5 | 10 | Lady Tuatara | 44.5 | 0.1232 | 0.9551 | track, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, fo | +| 6 | 11 | Military Legend | 38.4 | 0.0741 | 1.0 | weight, form, pace, barrier, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 6 — Lennox Hotel BM66 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 7 — 100.9 Zzzfm CL2 BM62 Handicap +1000m | Heavy 10 | CL2 | Start 2026-08-11T06:10:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Immortal Storm (score 52.3) +🥈 #4 Yoweri (score 47.9) +🥉 #7 City Of Tears (score 46.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Immortal Storm: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Yoweri: recent form quality (score 84/100); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 City Of Tears: track-condition suitability; trainer record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Immortal Storm | 52.3 | 0.2588 | 0.5964 | distance, condition, weight, form, pace, | +| 2 | 4 | Yoweri | 47.9 | 0.1794 | 0.7483 | form, weight, barrier, pace, jockey, con | +| 3 | 7 | City Of Tears | 46.4 | 0.1583 | 0.8856 | condition, trainer, barrier, weight, pac | +| 4 | 14 | Land Speed | 45.9 | 0.1518 | 1.0 | condition, barrier, weight, form, pace, | +| 5 | 11 | Hi Tiago | 44.7 | 0.1374 | 1.0 | condition, distance, barrier, weight, pa | +| 6 | 6 | Bluish Hue | 42.5 | 0.1144 | 1.0 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, jockey | + +--- + +### Ballina — Race 8 — Ballina Rsl BM58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 1 — Youga Walla Pastoral Company Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 2 — Platinum Logistics Handicap +1000m | Good | 3YO+ CL2 | Start 2026-08-11T06:20:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Majestuoso Phoenix (score 62.7) +🥈 #6 Working Class Girl (score 45.7) +🥉 #4 Ole Grande (score 44.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 6 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Majestuoso Phoenix: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 Working Class Girl: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 68/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Ole Grande: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 67/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Majestuoso Phoenix | 62.7 | 0.5325 | 0.7766 | track, barrier, jockey, distance, weight | +| 2 | 6 | Working Class Girl | 45.7 | 0.1291 | 0.885 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 4 | Ole Grande | 44.3 | 0.1149 | 0.9496 | barrier, weight, form, pace, track, jock | +| 4 | 2 | Ray's Sauce | 43.6 | 0.1084 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 5 | Finado | 37.4 | 0.0647 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, form, t | +| 6 | 7 | Gingeriffic | 34.4 | 0.0504 | 1.0 | barrier, pace, weight, form, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Broome — Race 3 — Kimberley Quarries Handicap +1300m | Good | 3YO+ BM50+ | Start 2026-08-11T06:55:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Dust Aside (score 51.6) +🥈 #1 La Signora Dane (score 46.8) +🥉 #5 Solar System (score 44.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Dust Aside: recent form quality (score 87/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record +- #1 La Signora Dane: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 61/100) +- #5 Solar System: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Dust Aside | 51.6 | 0.2192 | 0.4865 | form, barrier, track, weight, pace, cond | +| 2 | 1 | La Signora Dane | 46.8 | 0.147 | 0.5954 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, tra | +| 3 | 5 | Solar System | 44.4 | 0.1203 | 0.6964 | barrier, track, weight, form, pace, cond | +| 4 | 3 | Mrs Kangaroo | 43.2 | 0.1089 | 0.7925 | barrier, weight, distance, trainer, pace | +| 5 | 4 | Rulesque | 42.3 | 0.101 | 0.8738 | barrier, weight, form, distance, pace, c | +| 6 | 7 | Percussion Prince | 41.7 | 0.0961 | 0.9427 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, conditi | + +--- + +### Broome — Race 4 — Allure Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 5 — Tabtouch Broome Sprint +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 6 — Wa Stockfeeds Handicap +1100m | Good | 3YO+ BM58+ | Start 2026-08-11T08:50:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Fire The Guard (score 55.2) +🥈 #5 Delicate Ruler (score 45.3) +🥉 #9 Outlaw Music (score 43.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 5 → 9 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Fire The Guard: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; historical distance performance +- #5 Delicate Ruler: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 69/100) +- #9 Outlaw Music: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; recent form quality (score 64/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Fire The Guard | 55.2 | 0.2646 | 0.4787 | barrier, track, distance, form, conditio | +| 2 | 5 | Delicate Ruler | 45.3 | 0.1159 | 0.5744 | barrier, weight, form, track, distance, | +| 3 | 9 | Outlaw Music | 43.3 | 0.0981 | 0.6662 | barrier, track, form, weight, pace, cond | +| 4 | 6 | Buster's Girl | 43.0 | 0.0957 | 0.7565 | barrier, distance, weight, jockey, condi | +| 5 | 8 | Roey Clam | 42.5 | 0.0918 | 0.8362 | distance, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, | +| 6 | 2 | Lost Gravity | 42.3 | 0.0903 | 0.9133 | barrier, weight, form, pace, distance, j | + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 1 — Rugby Raceday 31St October 2026 Maiden +1000m | Good 4 | MDN | Start 2026-08-11T02:17:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Not Telling (score 56.1) +🥈 #6 Divinelle (score 50.6) +🥉 #2 Bluey's Choice (score 48.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 6 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.933) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Not Telling: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 Divinelle: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Bluey's Choice: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Not Telling | 56.1 | 0.255 | 0.5539 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, form, | +| 2 | 6 | Divinelle | 50.6 | 0.1612 | 0.6629 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 2 | Bluey's Choice | 48.7 | 0.1376 | 0.7341 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 4 | 5 | Decoy | 45.9 | 0.109 | 0.8054 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 5 | 1 | Aces Are Good | 40.8 | 0.0713 | 0.8732 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 10 | Shakdam | 40.8 | 0.0713 | 0.9291 | barrier, weight, pace, form | + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 2 — Mittys Racing Colours Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 3 — Book Tickets To Dalby Saints Spring Fair +1400m | Good 4 | BM62 | Start 2026-08-11T03:27:00Z | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Extra Hands (score 50.3) +🥈 #9 Scruffy (score 44.6) +🥉 #6 Lambertina (score 43.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 9 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Extra Hands: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 84/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #9 Scruffy: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 65/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Lambertina: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Extra Hands | 50.3 | 0.3433 | 0.7566 | barrier, form, weight, condition, pace, | +| 2 | 9 | Scruffy | 44.6 | 0.2135 | 0.8808 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, dis | +| 3 | 6 | Lambertina | 43.8 | 0.1998 | 1.0 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, c | +| 4 | 5 | Anarita | 38.1 | 0.1242 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, jockey | +| 5 | 2 | Hoot 'N' Holler | 37.6 | 0.1192 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, jockey, form, con | + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 4 — Book The Marquee/Deck For Your Party +1200m | Good 4 | CL3 | Start 2026-08-11T04:04:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Zarippa (score 52.8) +🥈 #9 Master Miyagi (score 46.9) +🥉 #7 Final Voyage (score 42.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 9 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Zarippa: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100) +- #9 Master Miyagi: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 77/100); track-condition suitability +- #7 Final Voyage: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 62/100); race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Zarippa | 52.8 | 0.2773 | 0.5664 | track, barrier, form, jockey, weight, pa | +| 2 | 9 | Master Miyagi | 46.9 | 0.1696 | 0.684 | barrier, form, condition, distance, pace | +| 3 | 7 | Final Voyage | 42.7 | 0.1195 | 0.7786 | barrier, form, pace, weight, condition, | +| 4 | 3 | Straight Blast | 42.5 | 0.1175 | 0.8588 | barrier, condition, weight, distance, tr | +| 5 | 5 | Deep Tiara | 39.9 | 0.0946 | 0.9103 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, c | +| 6 | 2 | Miss De Medici | 37.9 | 0.0801 | 0.9589 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 5 — Criterion Hotel Dalby 0 - 58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 6 — D&Ndjc Life Members 0 - 58 Handicap +1400m | Good 4 | BM0-58 | Start 2026-08-11T05:17:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Knowitall Frank (score 57.1) +🥈 #4 Von Bee (score 43.1) +🥉 #3 Aussie Adaptor (score 43.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 3 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 74/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Knowitall Frank: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Von Bee: historical distance performance; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Aussie Adaptor: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Knowitall Frank | 57.1 | 0.3259 | 0.528 | track, barrier, weight, form, distance, | +| 2 | 4 | Von Bee | 43.1 | 0.1015 | 0.6083 | distance, jockey, weight, barrier, pace, | +| 3 | 3 | Aussie Adaptor | 43.0 | 0.1006 | 0.688 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, | +| 4 | 5 | Flying Celica | 40.3 | 0.0804 | 0.7595 | jockey, barrier, weight, distance, pace, | +| 5 | 6 | Thiem | 40.2 | 0.0797 | 0.8305 | barrier, weight, form, distance, conditi | +| 6 | 8 | Water Lad | 38.9 | 0.0715 | 0.8985 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 7 — Dalby Dry Cleaners & Launderers 0 - 55 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Dalby — Race 8 — Psp Racing Colours BM60 Handicap +1000m | Good 4 | BM60 | Start 2026-08-11T06:34:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Vesper Lynd (score 51.8) +🥈 #14 Mr Evans (score 46.0) +🥉 #8 Booga Ray (score 45.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 14 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Vesper Lynd: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #14 Mr Evans: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #8 Booga Ray: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Vesper Lynd | 51.8 | 0.2039 | 0.4523 | track, barrier, distance, weight, pace, | +| 2 | 14 | Mr Evans | 46.0 | 0.1258 | 0.572 | barrier, weight, jockey, distance, form, | +| 3 | 8 | Booga Ray | 45.7 | 0.1227 | 0.6724 | barrier, jockey, weight, distance, track | +| 4 | 1 | Jemeldi | 45.4 | 0.1196 | 0.7695 | weight, form, jockey, barrier, pace, tra | +| 5 | 5 | Mr Wandji | 43.3 | 0.1004 | 0.8511 | weight, track, barrier, pace, form, cond | +| 6 | 6 | Dusan | 42.9 | 0.0971 | 0.928 | barrier, weight, form, condition, pace, | + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 1 — Country Music Raceday 5 Sep CL1 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 2 — Hrc Motel Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 3 — Clarendon Tavern 4Yo&Up Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 4 — Elite Sand & Soil Provincial CL1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 5 — Remembering Ryan Midway BM64 +1800m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ BM64 | Start 2026-08-11T05:50:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Highborn Harry (score 55.5) +🥈 #4 The Iron Star (score 49.8) +🥉 #9 Inception (score 47.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 4 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Highborn Harry: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 73/100); track-specific record +- #4 The Iron Star: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance +- #9 Inception: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 62/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Highborn Harry | 55.5 | 0.2454 | 0.526 | barrier, form, track, weight, distance, | +| 2 | 4 | The Iron Star | 49.8 | 0.1526 | 0.6225 | barrier, weight, distance, track, pace, | +| 3 | 9 | Inception | 47.7 | 0.1281 | 0.7098 | track, barrier, form, weight, jockey, pa | +| 4 | 8 | Johnny Smash | 44.3 | 0.0965 | 0.7964 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, con | +| 5 | 1 | Lugarno | 43.1 | 0.0873 | 0.8661 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 2 | Dr Evil | 43.0 | 0.0866 | 0.9195 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 6 — Debortoli Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Hawkesbury — Race 7 — Equimillion Sponsorship Now Open CL1 +1100m | Soft 5 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-11T07:00:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Dirty Summer (score 59.4) +🥈 #8 Sprightly Affair (score 54.3) +🥉 #1 Castlejohn (score 51.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 8 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Dirty Summer: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 73/100) +- #8 Sprightly Affair: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #1 Castlejohn: historical distance performance; trainer record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Dirty Summer | 59.4 | 0.3317 | 0.7218 | track, condition, form, weight, jockey, | +| 2 | 8 | Sprightly Affair | 54.3 | 0.2169 | 0.8251 | condition, barrier, jockey, form, weight | +| 3 | 1 | Castlejohn | 51.6 | 0.1732 | 0.9097 | distance, trainer, barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 6 | Ballet Encore | 45.4 | 0.1033 | 0.9597 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 5 | 3 | Maidoff | 43.0 | 0.0846 | 1.0 | barrier, distance, weight, pace, conditi | +| 6 | 10 | Nymphadora | 36.7 | 0.05 | 1.0 | barrier, distance, track, weight, pace, | diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-12.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-12.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b0ca8ccbe236b0fc7c32f16dfb5b405df4fe2724 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-12.md @@ -0,0 +1,575 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-12 + +*Model version 1.1.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:13:14.057189+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Pinjarra Scarpside R5 — HIGH (100/100) + 3 → 7 → 2 +2. Bendigo R1 — MEDIUM (73/100) + 3 → 4 → 2 +3. Pinjarra Scarpside R7 — MEDIUM (70/100) + 1 → 2 → 5 +4. Bendigo R7 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 11 → 7 → 6 +5. Murray Bridge R4 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 2 → 5 → 1 +6. Bendigo R2 — MEDIUM (67/100) + 2 → 3 → 10 + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 1 — Clubarham Maiden Plate +1000m | Heavy 10 | 3YO MDN CG | Start 2026-08-12T03:00:00Z | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Gold Chalice (score 55.7) +🥈 #4 Hydro Rush (score 40.7) +🥉 #2 Desert Oak (score 39.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 4 → 2 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 73/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 0.822) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Gold Chalice: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 69/100) +- #4 Hydro Rush: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Desert Oak: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Gold Chalice | 55.7 | 0.5118 | 0.7868 | condition, barrier, form, weight, pace, | +| 2 | 4 | Hydro Rush | 40.7 | 0.1466 | 0.9001 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 3 | 2 | Desert Oak | 39.1 | 0.1283 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 1 | Come Together | 37.6 | 0.1133 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 5 | Little Bit | 36.1 | 0.0999 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 2 — Sandhurst Stockfeeds Maiden Plate +1000m | Heavy 10 | 3YO MDN F | Start 2026-08-12T03:35:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Five Knights (score 54.9) +🥈 #3 I Am Aria (score 45.4) +🥉 #10 Silent Devotion (score 39.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 3 → 10 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 67/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.873) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Five Knights: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 I Am Aria: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #10 Silent Devotion: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Five Knights | 54.9 | 0.3769 | 0.6504 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 3 | I Am Aria | 45.4 | 0.1708 | 0.7506 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 10 | Silent Devotion | 39.3 | 0.1027 | 0.8508 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 4 | 5 | Novamira | 39.0 | 0.1002 | 0.9392 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 11 | Sky Wytch | 39.0 | 0.1002 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 9 | Shameful Impulse | 37.5 | 0.0884 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 3 — Ladbrokes Owners Promotion Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 4 — McDonald Electrical Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 5 — Johansen Insurance Brokers BM66 Handicap +1000m | Heavy 9 | 3YO+ BM66 | Start 2026-08-12T05:20:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Monix (score 62.9) +🥈 #8 Fehmarn (score 58.4) +🥉 #7 Exfortythree (score 51.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 8 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Monix: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 90/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #8 Fehmarn: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Exfortythree: historical distance performance; trainer record; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Monix | 62.9 | 0.3568 | 0.7366 | track, form, barrier, weight, distance, | +| 2 | 8 | Fehmarn | 58.4 | 0.2452 | 0.8331 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, jo | +| 3 | 7 | Exfortythree | 51.2 | 0.1346 | 0.912 | distance, trainer, weight, barrier, pace | +| 4 | 2 | Misty Legend | 47.2 | 0.0964 | 0.9591 | weight, barrier, condition, distance, pa | +| 5 | 10 | Nicereine | 44.8 | 0.079 | 1.0 | condition, barrier, weight, form, pace, | +| 6 | 11 | Time To Rumble | 38.6 | 0.0471 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, distance, | + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 6 — Donna Philpot Memorial BM66 Handicap +1100m | Heavy 9 | 3YO+ BM66 FM | Start 2026-08-12T05:55:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Yuuki (score 62.5) +🥈 #9 Iced Poppy (score 57.2) +🥉 #15 Miss Himalaya (score 48.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 9 → 15 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Yuuki: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #9 Iced Poppy: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #15 Miss Himalaya: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 70/100); track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Yuuki | 62.5 | 0.3422 | 0.6697 | distance, track, condition, weight, form | +| 2 | 9 | Iced Poppy | 57.2 | 0.22 | 0.7711 | track, condition, barrier, weight, jocke | +| 3 | 15 | Miss Himalaya | 48.6 | 0.1075 | 0.8598 | barrier, form, condition, pace, weight, | +| 4 | 4 | Bine | 47.9 | 0.1014 | 0.9213 | distance, track, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 7 | Mrs Archibald | 46.3 | 0.0887 | 0.9668 | barrier, condition, weight, distance, pa | +| 6 | 3 | Tapo | 41.9 | 0.0615 | 1.0 | weight, form, condition, distance, pace, | + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 7 — Cathcart Smash Repairs BM66 Handicap +1300m | Heavy 9 | 3YO+ BM66 | Start 2026-08-12T06:30:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #11 Yuki (score 66.0) +🥈 #7 Magnetic Chess (score 56.7) +🥉 #6 Electric Elvis (score 52.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 11 → 7 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #11 Yuki: track-condition suitability; trainer record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Magnetic Chess: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #6 Electric Elvis: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 74/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 11 | Yuki | 66.0 | 0.3773 | 0.6736 | condition, trainer, barrier, form, jocke | +| 2 | 7 | Magnetic Chess | 56.7 | 0.1738 | 0.7408 | distance, track, condition, weight, form | +| 3 | 6 | Electric Elvis | 52.5 | 0.1225 | 0.8037 | condition, form, weight, jockey, pace, b | +| 4 | 16 | Invisible Magic | 45.3 | 0.0672 | 0.8574 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | +| 5 | 14 | Eishaa | 44.5 | 0.0629 | 0.9006 | track, barrier, distance, weight, pace, | +| 6 | 8 | Cindy Falls | 42.6 | 0.0537 | 0.9404 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, traine | + +--- + +### Bendigo — Race 8 — Bendigo Mazda BM66 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 1 — Captivant @ Vinery Stud Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 2 — Tab Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 3 — Irresistible Pools And Spas Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 4 — The Agency Real Estate Handicap +1250m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ BM72 FM | Start 2026-08-12T05:10:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Oakfield Neptune (score 55.6) +🥈 #4 Kakadu Sunset (score 51.1) +🥉 #5 Rileycat (score 49.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Oakfield Neptune: historical distance performance; trainer record; track-condition suitability +- #4 Kakadu Sunset: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #5 Rileycat: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Oakfield Neptune | 55.6 | 0.21 | 0.4775 | distance, trainer, condition, weight, ba | +| 2 | 4 | Kakadu Sunset | 51.1 | 0.1443 | 0.5776 | distance, track, condition, barrier, wei | +| 3 | 5 | Rileycat | 49.2 | 0.1232 | 0.6743 | barrier, form, weight, condition, jockey | +| 4 | 1 | Cando Attitude | 46.7 | 0.1 | 0.7641 | trainer, barrier, weight, condition, pac | +| 5 | 12 | Tigroni | 46.3 | 0.0968 | 0.8531 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 6 | 6 | Totoka | 45.4 | 0.0898 | 0.9317 | barrier, distance, track, weight, pace, | + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 5 — Chase The Dream Handicap +1250m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ BM72 CG | Start 2026-08-12T05:45:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Monte Veebee (score 58.4) +🥈 #5 Condone (score 52.6) +🥉 #9 Ravalli (score 52.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 5 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Monte Veebee: historical distance performance; track-specific record; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #5 Condone: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #9 Ravalli: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 77/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Monte Veebee | 58.4 | 0.2428 | 0.5397 | distance, track, jockey, barrier, weight | +| 2 | 5 | Condone | 52.6 | 0.1497 | 0.6786 | track, barrier, weight, condition, form, | +| 3 | 9 | Ravalli | 52.4 | 0.1472 | 0.7622 | barrier, form, jockey, weight, condition | +| 4 | 8 | Capture Me | 51.7 | 0.1389 | 0.841 | form, jockey, weight, barrier, condition | +| 5 | 4 | Clancy | 45.6 | 0.0836 | 0.91 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, tr | +| 6 | 1 | Yoshinobu | 44.9 | 0.0788 | 0.9674 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, conditi | + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 6 — Precise Air Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Canterbury — Race 7 — Ranvet Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Devonport Synthetic — Race 1 — Drc Season Opener Maiden +1880m | Synthetic | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-12T02:22:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Come To Light (score 59.8) +🥈 #1 Alla Rustica (score 54.2) +🥉 #2 Bailed (score 53.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Come To Light: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Alla Rustica: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Bailed: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Come To Light | 59.8 | 0.3291 | 0.727 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 1 | Alla Rustica | 54.2 | 0.2064 | 0.8102 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 3 | 2 | Bailed | 53.3 | 0.1915 | 0.8849 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 8 | White Star Suzie | 43.3 | 0.0832 | 0.9547 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, jock | +| 5 | 6 | Gym Princess | 42.0 | 0.0747 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track, form, jock | +| 6 | 7 | Highland Dash | 41.2 | 0.0699 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Devonport Synthetic — Race 2 — Goodstone Group Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 1 — Gallopers Sports Club 3Yo Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 2 — Become A Brc Member Cg&E Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 3 — Country Music Raceday 15 Aug F&M Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 4 — Family Day Raceday 12 September Class 5 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 5 — Mekka Raceday 22 August Class 1 Plate +1840m | Good 4 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-12T04:53:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Bon Riviere (score 60.9) +🥈 #6 Devine Squire (score 55.2) +🥉 #1 Argentum Rock (score 48.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 6 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Bon Riviere: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Devine Squire: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Argentum Rock: recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Bon Riviere | 60.9 | 0.2986 | 0.5933 | track, condition, barrier, form, weight, | +| 2 | 6 | Devine Squire | 55.2 | 0.1857 | 0.6894 | barrier, track, weight, form, jockey, co | +| 3 | 1 | Argentum Rock | 48.8 | 0.1089 | 0.7721 | form, weight, jockey, barrier, pace, con | +| 4 | 2 | Barcelo | 47.3 | 0.0961 | 0.8422 | weight, form, barrier, track, pace, cond | +| 5 | 12 | Tassorati | 45.5 | 0.0827 | 0.9061 | barrier, form, weight, track, pace, jock | +| 6 | 9 | Iconify | 43.5 | 0.07 | 0.9625 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 6 — Sky Racing BM68 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 7 — Xxxx Gold Class 3 Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Eagle Farm — Race 8 — Ladbrokes Switch Class 6 Handicap +1000m | Good 4 | CL6 | Start 2026-08-12T06:38:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Miss Personality (score 54.6) +🥈 #1 Moonhaven (score 48.7) +🥉 #3 Acres Away (score 47.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Miss Personality: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Moonhaven: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #3 Acres Away: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Miss Personality | 54.6 | 0.2316 | 0.5035 | distance, track, barrier, condition, tra | +| 2 | 1 | Moonhaven | 48.7 | 0.1416 | 0.5961 | track, weight, jockey, distance, barrier | +| 3 | 3 | Acres Away | 47.7 | 0.1303 | 0.6841 | barrier, distance, weight, condition, fo | +| 4 | 2 | Tiger Tie | 43.6 | 0.0926 | 0.7665 | barrier, weight, track, condition, train | +| 5 | 11 | Surreal Ascot | 43.0 | 0.0881 | 0.8482 | barrier, form, pace, weight, condition, | +| 6 | 8 | Port Erin | 42.2 | 0.0824 | 0.9068 | track, barrier, distance, condition, joc | + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 1 — Afl Grand Final @ Murray Bridge Maiden +1200m | Heavy 8 | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-12T03:15:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Noah's Ark (score 59.2) +🥈 #1 Chappa (score 54.9) +🥉 #5 Strong Minded (score 49.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.975) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Noah's Ark: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Chappa: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Strong Minded: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Noah's Ark | 59.2 | 0.2876 | 0.6167 | distance, track, barrier, form, weight, | +| 2 | 1 | Chappa | 54.9 | 0.201 | 0.7174 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 5 | Strong Minded | 49.5 | 0.1282 | 0.7957 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, condition | +| 4 | 4 | Red Ripples | 46.6 | 0.1006 | 0.8697 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 5 | 2 | Nic The Cash | 43.6 | 0.0784 | 0.9213 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, form, c | +| 6 | 7 | Divergent | 42.9 | 0.0739 | 0.9673 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, form, c | + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 2 — Fore Design Flex Planning Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 3 — Kookaburra Homes Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 4 — Duttons Easy To Do Business With Class 1 +1200m | Heavy 8 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-12T05:00:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Scootathewoota (score 60.0) +🥈 #5 Tully Hart (score 50.4) +🥉 #1 Chip'n'Dale (score 50.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 5 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Scootathewoota: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #5 Tully Hart: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Chip'n'Dale: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 72/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Scootathewoota | 60.0 | 0.2604 | 0.4915 | distance, track, barrier, weight, form, | +| 2 | 5 | Tully Hart | 50.4 | 0.117 | 0.5947 | condition, barrier, weight, form, distan | +| 3 | 1 | Chip'n'Dale | 50.1 | 0.1141 | 0.6946 | weight, form, barrier, jockey, pace, cla | +| 4 | 4 | No Mans Land | 48.9 | 0.1032 | 0.7872 | distance, trainer, barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 6 | Illustrates | 48.5 | 0.0999 | 0.8725 | condition, form, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 6 | 7 | Lots Of Torque | 47.6 | 0.0926 | 0.9114 | form, barrier, weight, pace, distance, j | + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 5 — Thomas Farms 0 - 56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 6 — Carlton Draught BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 7 — Sportsbet Race Previews BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Murray Bridge — Race 8 — Sportsbet More Places 0 - 58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 1 — Gjd Security Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 2 — Electrical Consultancy Wa Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 3 — State Wide Turf Services Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 4 — Tabtouch Download Today Handicap +1500m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ CL3 | Start 2026-08-12T06:14:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Berry Blast (score 51.9) +🥈 #1 Jazalot (score 47.9) +🥉 #6 Sovereign Salute (score 43.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Berry Blast: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability +- #1 Jazalot: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Sovereign Salute: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Berry Blast | 51.9 | 0.2393 | 0.5266 | track, barrier, condition, weight, form, | +| 2 | 1 | Jazalot | 47.9 | 0.1715 | 0.636 | track, barrier, weight, form, trainer, p | +| 3 | 6 | Sovereign Salute | 43.2 | 0.1159 | 0.724 | track, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, fo | +| 4 | 4 | Back To Bondi | 42.5 | 0.1093 | 0.8077 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 5 | 7 | Gondrinkin | 39.9 | 0.088 | 0.8653 | barrier, jockey, weight, distance, pace, | +| 6 | 8 | Hot Chatter | 39.3 | 0.0837 | 0.9196 | barrier, track, pace, weight, form, jock | + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 5 — Western Racepix Handicap +1400m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-12T06:49:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Cosmic Waltz (score 62.6) +🥈 #7 Moonshine Queen (score 44.0) +🥉 #2 Good Show (score 43.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 7 → 2 +**Confidence:** HIGH — 100/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Cosmic Waltz: historical distance performance; track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Moonshine Queen: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Good Show: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 59/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Cosmic Waltz | 62.6 | 0.4091 | 0.5779 | distance, track, barrier, jockey, weight | +| 2 | 7 | Moonshine Queen | 44.0 | 0.0868 | 0.6502 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | +| 3 | 2 | Good Show | 43.3 | 0.0819 | 0.7129 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 4 | 1 | Diamond Warrior | 41.8 | 0.0723 | 0.7731 | weight, form, barrier, pace, jockey, con | +| 5 | 8 | Alcabeel | 40.1 | 0.0627 | 0.8169 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, form, t | +| 6 | 5 | Buderim | 39.6 | 0.0602 | 0.8608 | condition, weight, barrier, form, pace, | + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 6 — Bryson Canvas Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 7 — Tabtouch Share My Bet Handicap +1800m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-12T08:06:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Lets Take A Chance (score 62.6) +🥈 #2 Barney Rommel (score 52.6) +🥉 #5 Acquired Taste (score 40.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 2 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Lets Take A Chance: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 87/100) +- #2 Barney Rommel: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 71/100) +- #5 Acquired Taste: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Lets Take A Chance | 62.6 | 0.3954 | 0.6285 | condition, barrier, form, jockey, weight | +| 2 | 2 | Barney Rommel | 52.6 | 0.1719 | 0.6871 | condition, barrier, form, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 5 | Acquired Taste | 40.2 | 0.0612 | 0.7384 | barrier, weight, track, trainer, pace, j | +| 4 | 3 | Awesome Force | 39.7 | 0.0587 | 0.7885 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 4 | Miss Veuve | 38.1 | 0.0513 | 0.8346 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 6 | Whiskers Harbour | 37.8 | 0.0501 | 0.8806 | weight, barrier, distance, pace, form, j | + +--- + +### Pinjarra Scarpside — Race 8 — Racing@ Pinjarra Thursday August 20 +1200m | Soft 6 | 3YO+ CL3 | Start 2026-08-12T08:45:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Swansee (score 57.3) +🥈 #1 Centre Bond (score 48.9) +🥉 #10 Alebrije (score 48.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 1 → 10 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Swansee: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 94/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Centre Bond: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #10 Alebrije: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Swansee | 57.3 | 0.2491 | 0.4886 | track, form, barrier, weight, distance, | +| 2 | 1 | Centre Bond | 48.9 | 0.1237 | 0.5987 | condition, weight, barrier, distance, jo | +| 3 | 10 | Alebrije | 48.1 | 0.1157 | 0.6762 | distance, barrier, form, weight, pace, j | +| 4 | 7 | The Nun | 47.5 | 0.1101 | 0.7372 | trainer, barrier, distance, weight, pace | +| 5 | 6 | Surround Me | 43.3 | 0.0776 | 0.7966 | condition, weight, barrier, form, pace, | +| 6 | 8 | Hyperreal | 40.4 | 0.0609 | 0.8417 | jockey, condition, weight, form, barrier | diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-13.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-13.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a747b6230df50f5cd694bc38787f89051b126215 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-13.md @@ -0,0 +1,430 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-13 + +*Model version 1.1.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T17:13:33.754132+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Rockhampton R4 — MEDIUM (71/100) + 2 → 4 → 3 +2. Bunbury R7 — MEDIUM (70/100) + 3 → 2 → 1 + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 1 — Membership At Bunbury Turf Club Maiden +1000m | Soft 5 | 3YO MDN | Start 2026-08-13T04:45:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Amalie's Rule (score 45.1) +🥈 #5 What Have You Done (score 39.4) +🥉 #1 Big Red Zoom (score 38.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 5 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.827) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Amalie's Rule: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 What Have You Done: barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Big Red Zoom: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Amalie's Rule | 45.1 | 0.1947 | 0.43 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 5 | What Have You Done | 39.4 | 0.1211 | 0.5443 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 1 | Big Red Zoom | 38.7 | 0.1142 | 0.6566 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 3 | Chix Obsession | 38.7 | 0.1142 | 0.7574 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 8 | Inxsession | 38.5 | 0.1123 | 0.8449 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 2 | Cartier Glow | 37.2 | 0.1008 | 0.9228 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 2 — Gommes Shoes Maiden +1000m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-13T05:22:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Dreams Of Diamonds (score 47.5) +🥈 #2 Wrexham (score 43.2) +🥉 #9 Hot Chix Lane (score 41.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 2 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.945) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Dreams Of Diamonds: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 60/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Wrexham: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #9 Hot Chix Lane: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Dreams Of Diamonds | 47.5 | 0.1649 | 0.3818 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, track, pa | +| 2 | 2 | Wrexham | 43.2 | 0.1152 | 0.4658 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, form, j | +| 3 | 9 | Hot Chix Lane | 41.7 | 0.1017 | 0.5484 | track, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, fo | +| 4 | 10 | Vino Miss | 39.4 | 0.084 | 0.6243 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 5 | 4 | Bubbles In Rio | 39.2 | 0.0826 | 0.6997 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, dis | +| 6 | 7 | Playa Del Sol | 38.2 | 0.076 | 0.7738 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 3 — Redink Homes Southwest Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 4 — Duncan Equine Group Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 5 — Swan Draught Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 6 — Vivienne Ferrier Tribute Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 7 — Real Punters Play Here Tabtouch Handicap +1200m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-13T08:28:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Eightyseven Lad (score 61.6) +🥈 #2 Cosmic Gem (score 51.3) +🥉 #1 God's Cross (score 46.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 2 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Eightyseven Lad: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 90/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Cosmic Gem: track-condition suitability; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 God's Cross: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Eightyseven Lad | 61.6 | 0.3612 | 0.6204 | condition, form, barrier, distance, weig | +| 2 | 2 | Cosmic Gem | 51.3 | 0.1531 | 0.7141 | condition, jockey, barrier, weight, form | +| 3 | 1 | God's Cross | 46.9 | 0.1061 | 0.7768 | barrier, distance, weight, track, jockey | +| 4 | 5 | Extronize | 45.4 | 0.0936 | 0.8346 | barrier, form, weight, track, pace, jock | +| 5 | 4 | Tiger Tank | 40.6 | 0.0628 | 0.8784 | barrier, weight, distance, condition, tr | +| 6 | 6 | Silent Amarda | 39.6 | 0.0577 | 0.9175 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, trainer, | + +--- + +### Bunbury — Race 8 — Cuprum Distillery Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Moe — Race 1 — Cleaners World Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Moe — Race 2 — Able Maiden Plate +1600m | Heavy | MDN | Start 2026-08-13T03:30:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Bellabama (score 58.2) +🥈 #2 Churchill Lane (score 51.5) +🥉 #5 Iamlevi (score 51.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 2 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.978) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Bellabama: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 77/100); jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #2 Churchill Lane: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Iamlevi: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Bellabama | 58.2 | 0.2068 | 0.4406 | distance, form, jockey, barrier, weight, | +| 2 | 2 | Churchill Lane | 51.5 | 0.1183 | 0.5442 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 3 | 5 | Iamlevi | 51.2 | 0.1154 | 0.6478 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 1 | Chosen Point | 49.9 | 0.1036 | 0.7479 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 4 | Grey Sabre | 49.9 | 0.1036 | 0.8286 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 6 | 3 | Good Lordy Me | 49.5 | 0.1002 | 0.9066 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | + +--- + +### Moe — Race 3 — Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Moe — Race 4 — Halls Plumbing Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Moe — Race 5 — Cloud Chat BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Moe — Race 6 — Ladbrokes Mega Multi BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Moe — Race 7 — Rmbl Investments Rising Stars Race +1200m | Heavy | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-13T06:00:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Atella Miss (score 62.3) +🥈 #8 Ice Quake (score 57.1) +🥉 #12 Tanana (score 48.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 8 → 12 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Atella Miss: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #8 Ice Quake: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #12 Tanana: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Atella Miss | 62.3 | 0.3184 | 0.6273 | track, barrier, distance, condition, for | +| 2 | 8 | Ice Quake | 57.1 | 0.2064 | 0.7007 | track, barrier, weight, condition, form, | +| 3 | 12 | Tanana | 48.7 | 0.1025 | 0.7538 | condition, barrier, weight, distance, tr | +| 4 | 3 | Russian Front | 44.7 | 0.0734 | 0.803 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 11 | That's All Good | 40.8 | 0.0531 | 0.8506 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, dis | +| 6 | 10 | Smash Blue | 39.9 | 0.0492 | 0.8978 | condition, weight, barrier, trainer, pac | + +--- + +### Moe — Race 8 — Team Staffing Solutions BM56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 1 — Jockeys Celebration Day Class 1 & Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 2 — Nsw Jockeys Association Super 3Yo Maiden +900m | Good | 3YO MDN | Start 2026-08-13T03:10:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Pure Ecstasy (score 46.8) +🥈 #7 Let There Be Drums (score 38.2) +🥉 #5 Esnaad (score 37.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 7 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.889) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Pure Ecstasy: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #7 Let There Be Drums: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Esnaad: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Pure Ecstasy | 46.8 | 0.2687 | 0.5186 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 7 | Let There Be Drums | 38.2 | 0.1312 | 0.6374 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 5 | Esnaad | 37.0 | 0.1187 | 0.7421 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 9 | Pointy End | 37.0 | 0.1187 | 0.8354 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 2 | Acrohope | 35.5 | 0.1048 | 0.9197 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 11 | Simple Pleasures | 34.1 | 0.0932 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form | + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 3 — Moonshadow Tqc Cruises Class 1 Handicap +900m | Good | CL1 | Start 2026-08-13T03:50:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Aeternum (score 53.5) +🥈 #1 Argyros (score 45.1) +🥉 #3 The Warrior (score 40.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Aeternum: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Argyros: trainer record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 The Warrior: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Aeternum | 53.5 | 0.3548 | 0.6501 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | +| 2 | 1 | Argyros | 45.1 | 0.1762 | 0.7526 | trainer, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, | +| 3 | 3 | The Warrior | 40.4 | 0.1191 | 0.8453 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, form, j | +| 4 | 5 | Third Base | 38.6 | 0.1025 | 0.9272 | barrier, weight, pace, track, distance, | +| 5 | 8 | Time And Rhythm | 37.4 | 0.0927 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 6 | 4 | Cosmic Order | 35.9 | 0.0818 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 4 — Port Stephens 4Wd Tours Midway Maiden +1600m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-13T04:25:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Zaddicted (score 51.2) +🥈 #4 Miss Binman (score 42.6) +🥉 #7 Robbed By Rob (score 41.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 4 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Zaddicted: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #4 Miss Binman: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 55/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Robbed By Rob: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Zaddicted | 51.2 | 0.3392 | 0.6523 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 2 | 4 | Miss Binman | 42.6 | 0.1657 | 0.7823 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, cla | +| 3 | 7 | Robbed By Rob | 41.2 | 0.1474 | 0.8953 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, form, j | +| 4 | 2 | Gold Globe | 39.7 | 0.1301 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, cla | +| 5 | 6 | Quadria | 38.0 | 0.1129 | 1.0 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 3 | Heliconia | 37.1 | 0.1047 | 1.0 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form, dis | + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 5 — The Port Stephens Examiner Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 6 — 4Wd Tours R Us Class 1 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 7 — Destination Port Stephens Cup BM 64 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Newcastle — Race 8 — The Prince Of Merewether BM64 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 1 — Great Northern 3Yo Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 2 — Tab Class 5 Handicap +1400m | Good 4 | CL5 | Start 2026-08-13T03:57:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Ask Me Mate (score 55.5) +🥈 #6 Hou Long Gwai (score 49.3) +🥉 #7 Darling Clementine (score 46.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 6 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Ask Me Mate: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #6 Hou Long Gwai: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability +- #7 Darling Clementine: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Ask Me Mate | 55.5 | 0.326 | 0.6694 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, track | +| 2 | 6 | Hou Long Gwai | 49.3 | 0.1945 | 0.7692 | distance, barrier, condition, weight, jo | +| 3 | 7 | Darling Clementine | 46.1 | 0.1489 | 0.8544 | distance, barrier, track, condition, pac | +| 4 | 5 | Presszora | 41.3 | 0.0998 | 0.9296 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, distan | +| 5 | 2 | Lonergy | 39.4 | 0.0852 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 3 | Warna | 37.9 | 0.0752 | 1.0 | barrier, track, weight, pace, distance, | + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 3 — Premier Racehorse-Pride Of Venus Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 4 — Premier Jockey - Warwick Satherley Open +1100m | Good 4 | OPEN | Start 2026-08-13T05:15:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Track Tale (score 53.1) +🥈 #4 Hurtle (score 41.5) +🥉 #3 Don Pedro (score 40.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 3 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Track Tale: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Hurtle: barrier suitability for the expected pace; trainer record; jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy +- #3 Don Pedro: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Track Tale | 53.1 | 0.4071 | 0.7068 | barrier, track, weight, distance, condit | +| 2 | 4 | Hurtle | 41.5 | 0.1548 | 0.8325 | barrier, trainer, jockey, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 3 | Don Pedro | 40.7 | 0.1448 | 0.9218 | barrier, weight, pace, distance, track, | +| 4 | 7 | Pantelone | 39.0 | 0.1257 | 1.0 | track, barrier, pace, distance, weight, | +| 5 | 6 | Resurrected | 34.9 | 0.0893 | 1.0 | barrier, pace, weight, condition, form, | +| 6 | 5 | Tizso Fab | 33.3 | 0.0782 | 1.0 | barrier, pace, weight, track, condition, | + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 5 — Premier Trainer - Clinton Taylor BM 60 +1300m | Good 4 | BM60 | Start 2026-08-13T05:48:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Ten Carat Lucy (score 61.8) +🥈 #4 Bitter Spirit (score 54.0) +🥉 #7 Autumn Gale (score 51.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 4 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Ten Carat Lucy: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #4 Bitter Spirit: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Autumn Gale: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Ten Carat Lucy | 61.8 | 0.3213 | 0.624 | distance, track, condition, jockey, barr | +| 2 | 4 | Bitter Spirit | 54.0 | 0.1677 | 0.7568 | distance, condition, weight, jockey, tra | +| 3 | 7 | Autumn Gale | 51.4 | 0.135 | 0.8348 | distance, barrier, track, jockey, weight | +| 4 | 5 | Moochi Starlight | 51.2 | 0.1328 | 0.9018 | form, barrier, weight, track, condition, | +| 5 | 1 | King's Duty | 44.8 | 0.0779 | 0.9661 | barrier, weight, distance, track, pace, | +| 6 | 11 | Luxor Prince | 43.0 | 0.0671 | 1.0 | barrier, form, jockey, pace, weight, tra | + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 6 — Premier Apprentice - Stephanie Tierney +1500m | Good 4 | BM0-55 | Start 2026-08-13T06:27:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Shiny Love (score 59.7) +🥈 #2 General Wolffe (score 55.7) +🥉 #3 Mr Democrat (score 46.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 2 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Shiny Love: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100) +- #2 General Wolffe: jockey/trainer strike-rate proxy; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #3 Mr Democrat: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 62/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Shiny Love | 59.7 | 0.2803 | 0.5737 | track, barrier, form, condition, jockey, | +| 2 | 2 | General Wolffe | 55.7 | 0.2008 | 0.6654 | jockey, barrier, distance, form, weight, | +| 3 | 3 | Mr Democrat | 46.4 | 0.0925 | 0.7564 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, track, pa | +| 4 | 10 | Whiskey Glasses | 46.3 | 0.0918 | 0.8102 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 7 | Nitrogen | 46.2 | 0.091 | 0.8602 | form, weight, barrier, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 11 | Bottom Bar | 39.9 | 0.0538 | 0.8984 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, tra | + +--- + +### Rockhampton — Race 7 — Vale Wendy Mulry Class 1 Handicap +**Skipped:** None diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-14.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-14.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d0e6eb0586e5a1d9cba20c8db2b4eb9e8f70299 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-14.md @@ -0,0 +1,548 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-14 + +*Model version 1.2.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T18:27:14.196139+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Geelong R2 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 3 → 1 → 7 +2. Taree R2 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 10 → 12 → 11 +3. Geelong R3 — MEDIUM (73/100) + 6 → 2 → 3 +4. Gunnedah R6 — MEDIUM (71/100) + 5 → 2 → 4 +5. Gunnedah R3 — MEDIUM (69/100) + 4 → 12 → 5 +6. Taree R1 — MEDIUM (68/100) + 3 → 1 → 13 + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 1 — Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 2 — The Viatek And Fujifilm Cup Maiden Plate +1425m | Heavy 8 | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-14T03:30:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Just Like Jagger (score 69.1) +🥈 #1 Diesel Desmond (score 52.6) +🥉 #7 Saatchi (score 52.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 7 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Just Like Jagger: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #1 Diesel Desmond: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Saatchi: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Just Like Jagger | 69.1 | 0.4501 | 0.6731 | track, condition, jockey, barrier, form, | +| 2 | 1 | Diesel Desmond | 52.6 | 0.1138 | 0.7679 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 7 | Saatchi | 52.1 | 0.1092 | 0.8309 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 2 | Foxtrot Charlie | 50.4 | 0.0948 | 0.8933 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 5 | 10 | Dazzling Nicci | 45.5 | 0.063 | 0.948 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 6 | 4 | Marron | 45.4 | 0.0625 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, form | + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 3 — Oasis Turf Maiden Plate +1225m | Heavy 8 | 3YO MDN | Start 2026-08-14T04:00:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Keen Observer (score 62.0) +🥈 #2 Avengers (score 46.8) +🥉 #3 Clementaro (score 39.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 2 → 3 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 73/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.852) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Keen Observer: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100) +- #2 Avengers: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Clementaro: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Keen Observer | 62.0 | 0.4759 | 0.6848 | condition, barrier, form, weight, pace, | +| 2 | 2 | Avengers | 46.8 | 0.1341 | 0.7596 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 3 | Clementaro | 39.8 | 0.0748 | 0.8219 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 5 | Greenwich Boy | 39.8 | 0.0748 | 0.8787 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 4 | Fairly Andy | 37.6 | 0.0623 | 0.9277 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 6 | 12 | I Am Justice | 36.5 | 0.0568 | 0.9691 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 4 — Roderick Insurance Brokers Maiden Plate +1225m | Heavy 8 | 4YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-14T04:30:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Bjorson (score 59.4) +🥈 #5 Terrestrial Light (score 50.9) +🥉 #10 Pomah (score 46.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 5 → 10 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.956) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Bjorson: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #5 Terrestrial Light: recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #10 Pomah: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Bjorson | 59.4 | 0.3201 | 0.5833 | distance, track_distance, jockey, barrie | +| 2 | 5 | Terrestrial Light | 50.9 | 0.1576 | 0.6649 | form, weight, barrier, pace, class | +| 3 | 10 | Pomah | 46.1 | 0.1057 | 0.7432 | condition, barrier, jockey, weight, pace | +| 4 | 9 | Itscharatabuilding | 43.0 | 0.0816 | 0.8123 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 5 | 8 | Galactic Girl | 42.5 | 0.0783 | 0.8743 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, condition | +| 6 | 2 | Mr Spendedoe | 41.0 | 0.0691 | 0.9337 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 5 — McGrath Real Estate Handicap +1325m | Heavy 8 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-14T05:00:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Godtfred Kirk (score 54.6) +🥈 #7 Prevention (score 48.8) +🥉 #3 Lyrics 'N' Song (score 46.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 7 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Godtfred Kirk: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #7 Prevention: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100) +- #3 Lyrics 'N' Song: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Godtfred Kirk | 54.6 | 0.3209 | 0.6796 | condition, barrier, jockey, form, weight | +| 2 | 7 | Prevention | 48.8 | 0.1979 | 0.8047 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, jock | +| 3 | 3 | Lyrics 'N' Song | 46.3 | 0.1607 | 0.9081 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, fit | +| 4 | 8 | Racey Casey | 43.3 | 0.1252 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 5 | 6 | Tsarine | 41.0 | 0.1033 | 1.0 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 6 | 4 | Formidable Force | 39.6 | 0.0919 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, fitness, co | + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 6 — D-Day Pest Control BM62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 7 — Prestige Jayco BM62 Handicap +1225m | Heavy 8 | 3YO+ BM62 | Start 2026-08-14T06:00:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 National Code (score 62.3) +🥈 #13 Sugar Schnapps (score 55.0) +🥉 #6 Ania (score 49.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 13 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 National Code: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #13 Sugar Schnapps: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #6 Ania: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | National Code | 62.3 | 0.3362 | 0.631 | track, condition, barrier, form, jockey, | +| 2 | 13 | Sugar Schnapps | 55.0 | 0.183 | 0.7085 | condition, barrier, jockey, weight, fitn | +| 3 | 6 | Ania | 49.1 | 0.1119 | 0.7855 | condition, weight, jockey, form, barrier | +| 4 | 9 | Lonstar | 44.7 | 0.0775 | 0.8568 | condition, barrier, weight, form, pace, | +| 5 | 14 | Russian Sky | 44.6 | 0.0769 | 0.905 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 6 | 10 | Switch Hit | 43.7 | 0.0713 | 0.9465 | weight, form, track, condition, pace, ba | + +--- + +### Geelong — Race 8 — Heads To Tails Horsewear BM62 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 1 — Many Fabrication & Engineering Maiden +1000m | Soft 6 | MDN | Start 2026-08-14T02:45:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 On Report (score 49.0) +🥈 #7 Miners Mate (score 43.3) +🥉 #11 Lost Flowers (score 41.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 7 → 11 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.951) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 On Report: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #7 Miners Mate: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance +- #11 Lost Flowers: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | On Report | 49.0 | 0.2563 | 0.5564 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 2 | 7 | Miners Mate | 43.3 | 0.1594 | 0.6947 | condition, weight, distance, pace, barri | +| 3 | 11 | Lost Flowers | 41.8 | 0.1407 | 0.7981 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, cla | +| 4 | 1 | Mongolian Master | 41.6 | 0.1383 | 0.8557 | distance, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, | +| 5 | 12 | Music Maestro | 38.1 | 0.1033 | 0.9124 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 6 | 5 | Malay Peninsula | 31.1 | 0.0577 | 0.9617 | barrier, weight, pace | + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 2 — Namoi Valley Plumbing Maiden Handicap +1400m | Soft 6 | MDN | Start 2026-08-14T03:20:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #14 Swift Franca (score 55.8) +🥈 #1 Bastianini (score 47.7) +🥉 #3 Quirky Princess (score 46.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 14 → 1 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #14 Swift Franca: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Bastianini: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #3 Quirky Princess: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 14 | Swift Franca | 55.8 | 0.2328 | 0.4596 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 1 | Bastianini | 47.7 | 0.1186 | 0.5599 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 3 | Quirky Princess | 46.6 | 0.1082 | 0.6421 | barrier, weight, jockey, condition, pace | +| 4 | 6 | Promise You | 45.7 | 0.1004 | 0.6945 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 2 | High Grade | 43.3 | 0.0822 | 0.7439 | weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 6 | 9 | Charabelle | 37.9 | 0.0524 | 0.7929 | barrier, weight, pace, form | + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 3 — Gunnedah Leather Processors Plate +1600m | Soft 6 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-14T03:55:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Nielsen Park (score 57.5) +🥈 #12 Tarrant County (score 48.3) +🥉 #5 Northern Exposure (score 48.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 12 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Nielsen Park: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 83/100) +- #12 Tarrant County: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Northern Exposure: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Nielsen Park | 57.5 | 0.244 | 0.4688 | track, condition, form, barrier, weight, | +| 2 | 12 | Tarrant County | 48.3 | 0.1133 | 0.5624 | track, barrier, weight, jockey, form, pa | +| 3 | 5 | Northern Exposure | 48.1 | 0.1115 | 0.6429 | distance, weight, barrier, form, pace, j | +| 4 | 13 | Disgruntled | 46.0 | 0.0936 | 0.7183 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, cla | +| 5 | 10 | Sharpen The Knives | 44.2 | 0.0805 | 0.78 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, form, | +| 6 | 3 | Memphis Blue | 43.4 | 0.0753 | 0.8326 | barrier, weight, form, distance, pace, j | + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 4 — Dries Electrical Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 5 — Ultra Fleet F&M BM58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 6 — Courthouse Hotel Gunnedah Cg&E BM58 +1400m | Soft 6 | BM58 CG | Start 2026-08-14T05:50:00Z | 14 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Heathcliff (score 61.3) +🥈 #2 Bolt Away Now (score 50.0) +🥉 #4 Sirleaf (score 47.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 2 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Heathcliff: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100) +- #2 Bolt Away Now: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Sirleaf: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Heathcliff | 61.3 | 0.2854 | 0.4871 | condition, barrier, form, jockey, weight | +| 2 | 2 | Bolt Away Now | 50.0 | 0.1113 | 0.5642 | track, track_distance, weight, distance, | +| 3 | 4 | Sirleaf | 47.5 | 0.0904 | 0.6253 | barrier, weight, distance, form, pace, j | +| 4 | 8 | Honey Slider | 45.6 | 0.0771 | 0.6859 | distance, weight, barrier, form, pace, c | +| 5 | 1 | Damascus Gate | 42.8 | 0.0611 | 0.746 | track_distance, weight, pace, track, bar | +| 6 | 10 | Gold Smiles | 42.7 | 0.0606 | 0.7964 | form, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 7 — Suntory Oceania Class 3 Handicap +1250m | Soft 6 | CL3 | Start 2026-08-14T06:25:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Zoucratic (score 56.1) +🥈 #2 Live To Rise (score 51.4) +🥉 #5 Imperial State (score 49.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Zoucratic: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #2 Live To Rise: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Imperial State: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Zoucratic | 56.1 | 0.2368 | 0.5346 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 2 | 2 | Live To Rise | 51.4 | 0.1601 | 0.6333 | track, barrier, weight, condition, jocke | +| 3 | 5 | Imperial State | 49.6 | 0.1378 | 0.7135 | barrier, form, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 1 | Irish Jig | 45.6 | 0.0987 | 0.7866 | barrier, weight, form, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 3 | Demarcate | 43.1 | 0.0801 | 0.8352 | barrier, weight, jockey, condition, pace | +| 6 | 9 | Gelsey | 42.0 | 0.0731 | 0.8819 | track, jockey, weight, pace, barrier, fo | + +--- + +### Gunnedah — Race 8 — Mannion Drilling BM58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 1 — Vale Brian Christensen Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 2 — Tab Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 3 — Fertpro BM65 Handicap +2150m | Good 4 | BM65 | Start 2026-08-14T04:04:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Power Pack (score 57.8) +🥈 #5 Vermeer (score 52.0) +🥉 #8 Makamae (score 46.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 5 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Power Pack: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 66/100) +- #5 Vermeer: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #8 Makamae: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 61/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Power Pack | 57.8 | 0.3162 | 0.6365 | distance, barrier, form, weight, jockey, | +| 2 | 5 | Vermeer | 52.0 | 0.195 | 0.7325 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 3 | 8 | Makamae | 46.7 | 0.1254 | 0.8201 | barrier, form, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 3 | Kerkorian | 43.5 | 0.096 | 0.8901 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 6 | Launcher | 42.4 | 0.0876 | 0.9464 | barrier, weight, track, pace, jockey, fo | +| 6 | 10 | Another Dazzler | 39.7 | 0.07 | 1.0 | track_distance, barrier, distance, pace, | + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 4 — Vale Barry Keith Self BM58 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 5 — Seven News BM65 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 6 — Great Northern BM65 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Ipswich — Race 7 — Tempus Two Class 1 Plate +1200m | Good 4 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-14T06:40:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Kinki Fish (score 63.2) +🥈 #5 Starlightning (score 56.3) +🥉 #12 Starvecchio (score 44.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 5 → 12 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Kinki Fish: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 95/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Starlightning: track-condition suitability; first-up / second-up strike rate; weight handling relative to the field +- #12 Starvecchio: historical distance performance; first-up / second-up strike rate; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Kinki Fish | 63.2 | 0.4385 | 0.7745 | track, form, weight, barrier, pace, clas | +| 2 | 5 | Starlightning | 56.3 | 0.2467 | 0.8608 | condition, fitness, weight, form, jockey | +| 3 | 12 | Starvecchio | 44.1 | 0.0893 | 0.9128 | distance, fitness, weight, pace, jockey, | +| 4 | 13 | Tam Na Ghar | 43.7 | 0.0863 | 0.9602 | distance, condition, weight, pace, barri | +| 5 | 15 | Power Hit | 37.6 | 0.0519 | 0.9841 | weight, form, pace, jockey, barrier, cla | +| 6 | 11 | Forgotten Spirit | 36.5 | 0.0474 | 1.0 | weight, condition, pace, form, jockey, f | + +--- + +### Taree — Race 1 — Ddh1 Drilling Maiden Plate +1000m | Soft 5 | MDN | Start 2026-08-14T02:30:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Fratianno (score 58.4) +🥈 #1 Armoury (score 48.5) +🥉 #13 Last Metaphor (score 47.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 13 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 68/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.98) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Fratianno: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #1 Armoury: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #13 Last Metaphor: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Fratianno | 58.4 | 0.3036 | 0.5612 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, form, | +| 2 | 1 | Armoury | 48.5 | 0.1331 | 0.6796 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 13 | Last Metaphor | 47.7 | 0.1245 | 0.7876 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 2 | Expensive Icon | 47.1 | 0.1184 | 0.8326 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 5 | 5 | Cheating Lilibet | 46.0 | 0.108 | 0.8769 | distance, jockey, weight, barrier, pace, | +| 6 | 4 | Jeunetos | 35.5 | 0.045 | 0.9117 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Taree — Race 2 — Dean Mills Plumbing Maiden Handicap +1250m | Soft 5 | MDN | Start 2026-08-14T03:05:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Fashion Spree (score 63.3) +🥈 #12 Raining Luck (score 48.0) +🥉 #11 Love Goddess (score 47.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 12 → 11 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Fashion Spree: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; track-condition suitability +- #12 Raining Luck: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #11 Love Goddess: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Fashion Spree | 63.3 | 0.3543 | 0.5514 | distance, track_distance, condition, bar | +| 2 | 12 | Raining Luck | 48.0 | 0.099 | 0.644 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 3 | 11 | Love Goddess | 47.9 | 0.0982 | 0.7192 | barrier, weight, jockey, form, pace, cla | +| 4 | 5 | Parker's Paradise | 47.2 | 0.0926 | 0.7798 | condition, weight, jockey, barrier, form | +| 5 | 17 | Atadcheeky | 44.7 | 0.0752 | 0.8383 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 6 | 7 | Raguel | 42.1 | 0.0605 | 0.8792 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, cla | + +--- + +### Taree — Race 3 — Mlw Fencing Class 1 & Maiden Plate +1600m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ CL1 | Start 2026-08-14T03:40:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Kowloon Magnate (score 59.4) +🥈 #1 Cannystep (score 53.4) +🥉 #5 Surpasser (score 51.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 1 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Kowloon Magnate: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 79/100) +- #1 Cannystep: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 73/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Surpasser: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Kowloon Magnate | 59.4 | 0.246 | 0.5269 | condition, barrier, form, jockey, weight | +| 2 | 1 | Cannystep | 53.4 | 0.1492 | 0.6137 | track, form, weight, barrier, jockey, pa | +| 3 | 5 | Surpasser | 51.9 | 0.1317 | 0.677 | distance, barrier, weight, condition, pa | +| 4 | 13 | Zousilence | 46.9 | 0.0868 | 0.7397 | barrier, form, weight, pace, class | +| 5 | 4 | Ordinary Angel | 43.1 | 0.0632 | 0.7915 | condition, weight, form, pace, barrier, | +| 6 | 3 | Major Lightning | 43.0 | 0.0627 | 0.8407 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Taree — Race 4 — Synergy Resource Tradies Cup BM58 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Taree — Race 5 — Mackies Concrete Pumping Class 2 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Taree — Race 6 — Rdo Equipment Taree BM82 Handicap +1000m | Good 4 | BM82 | Start 2026-08-14T05:35:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 The Piccolino (score 50.1) +🥈 #1 Shaggy (score 43.3) +🥉 #13 Ken'Ker (score 39.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 1 → 13 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 The Piccolino: recent form quality (score 74/100); track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Shaggy: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #13 Ken'Ker: recent form quality (score 65/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | The Piccolino | 50.1 | 0.2973 | 0.5921 | form, track_distance, barrier, track, di | +| 2 | 1 | Shaggy | 43.3 | 0.1687 | 0.6927 | distance, weight, condition, pace, jocke | +| 3 | 13 | Ken'Ker | 39.8 | 0.126 | 0.7884 | form, barrier, weight, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 11 | Grassburn | 37.1 | 0.1006 | 0.8834 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 4 | Angara | 36.5 | 0.0957 | 0.9429 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 8 | Debussy | 36.4 | 0.0949 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, condition | + +--- + +### Taree — Race 7 — Hopkins Livermore Cup +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Taree — Race 8 — Tanks 2Go Class 1 Handicap +1000m | Good 4 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-14T06:50:00Z | 14 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Exceed Me (score 57.7) +🥈 #12 Leuca (score 53.0) +🥉 #5 Dirty Does It (score 48.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 12 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Exceed Me: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #12 Leuca: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #5 Dirty Does It: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; recent form quality (score 62/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Exceed Me | 57.7 | 0.2203 | 0.4699 | track, track_distance, barrier, distance | +| 2 | 12 | Leuca | 53.0 | 0.1489 | 0.5558 | distance, track, track_distance, form, b | +| 3 | 5 | Dirty Does It | 48.3 | 0.1007 | 0.6292 | track, track_distance, form, weight, pac | +| 4 | 1 | The Magic Man | 46.4 | 0.0859 | 0.6966 | barrier, weight, form, distance, pace, j | +| 5 | 4 | Watch Capital | 44.5 | 0.0733 | 0.7587 | barrier, distance, condition, weight, pa | +| 6 | 10 | Outoftheoffice | 43.5 | 0.0675 | 0.8178 | track, barrier, weight, form, pace, jock | diff --git a/data/reports/report-2026-08-15.md b/data/reports/report-2026-08-15.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..06a0f0014e848224a7f42bedde4b2391952ebe5a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/reports/report-2026-08-15.md @@ -0,0 +1,2207 @@ +# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — 2026-08-15 + +*Model version 2.0.0 | data retrieved 2026-08-14T22:26:31.636046+00:00* + +> Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success. + +## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES +1. Doomben R7 — HIGH (100/100) + 3 → 11 → 7 +2. Morphettville Parks R4 — HIGH (100/100) + 4 → 8 → 3 +3. Morphettville Parks R9 — HIGH (100/100) + 4 → 7 → 9 +4. Katherine R6 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 4 → 2 → 1 +5. Roma R4 — MEDIUM (75/100) + 1 → 4 → 6 +6. Katherine R7 — MEDIUM (74/100) + 1 → 3 → 4 +7. Longreach R4 — MEDIUM (74/100) + 5 → 7 → 1 +8. Longreach R3 — MEDIUM (72/100) + 1 → 4 → 2 + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 1 — Lawn Pride Australia Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 2 — Quayclean Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 3 — Mc Polytrack Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 4 — Vale Greg Matta - Make It Matta Handicap +2100m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ 1MW | Start 2026-08-15T06:24:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Eternal Romance (score 59.2) +🥈 #5 Sweet Surrender (score 54.2) +🥉 #7 Luka Magic (score 47.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 5 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Eternal Romance: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100) +- #5 Sweet Surrender: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Luka Magic: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Eternal Romance | 59.2 | 0.2872 | 0.583 | condition, barrier, form, track, weight, | +| 2 | 5 | Sweet Surrender | 54.2 | 0.1893 | 0.6755 | distance, track_distance, barrier, form, | +| 3 | 7 | Luka Magic | 47.3 | 0.1065 | 0.7538 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, cla | +| 4 | 9 | Sister Mary | 45.6 | 0.0925 | 0.8301 | form, barrier, weight, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 8 | Pointless Praise | 43.6 | 0.0783 | 0.8727 | barrier, weight, jockey, form, pace, con | +| 6 | 3 | Double The Fun | 43.3 | 0.0763 | 0.9112 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, track, pa | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 5 — Tabtouch - Westspeed Platinum Series HT1 +1300m | Soft 5 | 4YO+ NMW1Y | Start 2026-08-15T07:00:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Lemmor Filou (score 61.6) +🥈 #5 Bosun (score 54.0) +🥉 #2 Flying Maradona (score 53.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 5 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Lemmor Filou: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 92/100) +- #5 Bosun: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 74/100) +- #2 Flying Maradona: recent form quality (score 86/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Lemmor Filou | 61.6 | 0.2636 | 0.5422 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, jock | +| 2 | 5 | Bosun | 54.0 | 0.1399 | 0.6809 | distance, barrier, form, jockey, weight, | +| 3 | 2 | Flying Maradona | 53.9 | 0.1387 | 0.7564 | form, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, cla | +| 4 | 4 | Gold Flakes | 53.9 | 0.1387 | 0.8283 | barrier, form, condition, weight, track, | +| 5 | 3 | God's Gate | 46.6 | 0.0755 | 0.8819 | distance, form, barrier, weight, pace, t | +| 6 | 10 | Right To Silence | 46.0 | 0.0718 | 0.9182 | track_distance, distance, barrier, form, | + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 6 — Glenroy Chaff Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 7 — Blue Spec Stakes +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Belmont — Race 8 — Bernard Couch Memorial Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bowen — Race 1 +Soft 5 | Start 2026-08-15T03:30:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Boom Bunny (score 58.4) +🥈 #3 Excelboom (score 49.8) +🥉 #2 Remember Roy (score 48.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 3 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.989) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Boom Bunny: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 88/100) +- #3 Excelboom: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Remember Roy: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Boom Bunny | 58.4 | 0.2918 | 0.5633 | condition, barrier, form, weight, pace, | +| 2 | 3 | Excelboom | 49.8 | 0.1425 | 0.683 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | +| 3 | 2 | Remember Roy | 48.6 | 0.129 | 0.7894 | barrier, form, weight, track, pace, cond | +| 4 | 1 | Unifies | 47.7 | 0.1196 | 0.8664 | weight, form, jockey, barrier, pace, con | +| 5 | 10 | She's Got Lyrics | 46.3 | 0.1065 | 0.9166 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | +| 6 | 4 | To Love Somebody | 42.4 | 0.0769 | 0.9512 | barrier, form, weight, pace, track, cond | + +--- + +### Bowen — Race 2 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bowen — Race 3 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Bowen — Race 4 +Soft 5 | Start 2026-08-15T05:38:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Sound The Bugle (score 58.0) +🥈 #9 Diamond Lucy (score 51.0) +🥉 #1 Looming One (score 47.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 9 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.989) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Sound The Bugle: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 73/100) +- #9 Diamond Lucy: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Looming One: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Sound The Bugle | 58.0 | 0.2927 | 0.5801 | track, barrier, form, weight, jockey, pa | +| 2 | 9 | Diamond Lucy | 51.0 | 0.1633 | 0.6895 | track, barrier, weight, form, pace, jock | +| 3 | 1 | Looming One | 47.7 | 0.1241 | 0.7605 | barrier, weight, jockey, condition, form | +| 4 | 4 | Arancia | 46.2 | 0.1095 | 0.8221 | track, weight, condition, pace, barrier, | +| 5 | 3 | Magic Sunny Day | 41.0 | 0.071 | 0.8774 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 5 | She's A Sweet Star | 39.3 | 0.0616 | 0.9309 | condition, weight, barrier, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Bowen — Race 5 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 1 — Nutrien Ag Solutions Maiden +1300m | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-15T04:21:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Principal Dealer (score 55.7) +🥈 #7 Maritime Dream (score 47.8) +🥉 #6 Coupe Deburj (score 44.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 7 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Principal Dealer: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Maritime Dream: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); recent form quality (score 62/100) +- #6 Coupe Deburj: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Principal Dealer | 55.7 | 0.2715 | 0.5188 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 7 | Maritime Dream | 47.8 | 0.1405 | 0.6106 | barrier, jockey, form, weight, pace, con | +| 3 | 6 | Coupe Deburj | 44.5 | 0.1068 | 0.6945 | barrier, form, weight, pace, track, cond | +| 4 | 5 | Boutique Session | 42.7 | 0.0919 | 0.7742 | barrier, weight, form, track, track_dist | +| 5 | 1 | Minozza | 41.6 | 0.0838 | 0.8412 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 10 | Belle Rose | 41.0 | 0.0797 | 0.9049 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | + +--- + +### Broome — Race 2 — Sandfire Roadhouse Handicap +1615m | 3YO+ CL2 | Start 2026-08-15T04:59:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Karsavina (score 49.5) +🥈 #1 Hundred Yards (score 44.0) +🥉 #8 Schuhbeck (score 41.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Karsavina: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Hundred Yards: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #8 Schuhbeck: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 73/100); race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Karsavina | 49.5 | 0.2485 | 0.5376 | track, barrier, weight, form, pace, fitn | +| 2 | 1 | Hundred Yards | 44.0 | 0.1571 | 0.659 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 3 | 8 | Schuhbeck | 41.9 | 0.1319 | 0.7592 | barrier, form, pace, weight, track, jock | +| 4 | 3 | Solar System | 40.9 | 0.1214 | 0.8514 | barrier, track, weight, form, pace, cond | +| 5 | 4 | Moment In The Sun | 38.6 | 0.1002 | 0.9334 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 6 | 5 | Ezelove | 37.6 | 0.0922 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, track, pace, fo | + +--- + +### Broome — Race 3 — Alpha Security Handicap +1200m | 3YO+ CL2 | Start 2026-08-15T05:39:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Ray's Sauce (score 53.0) +🥈 #7 Viva Marconi (score 46.9) +🥉 #4 Cassenite (score 43.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 7 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Ray's Sauce: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Viva Marconi: track + distance combo record; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 64/100) +- #4 Cassenite: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 66/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Ray's Sauce | 53.0 | 0.2742 | 0.5612 | track, barrier, weight, distance, form, | +| 2 | 7 | Viva Marconi | 46.9 | 0.1649 | 0.6804 | track_distance, weight, form, barrier, p | +| 3 | 4 | Cassenite | 43.3 | 0.1222 | 0.7956 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, j | +| 4 | 6 | Blatant Violation | 43.0 | 0.1192 | 0.8716 | form, weight, barrier, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 1 | Mohegan Ruler | 42.6 | 0.1152 | 0.9451 | barrier, weight, distance, track, pace, | +| 6 | 8 | Sanctions | 37.6 | 0.076 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, distance, weight, pace, | + +--- + +### Broome — Race 4 — H&M Tracey Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 5 — McCorry Brown Earthmoving Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 6 — Willie Creek Pearl Classic +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 7 — Great Northern Broome Cup +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Broome — Race 8 — Western Meat Packers Group Handicap +1615m | 3YO+ BM58+ | Start 2026-08-15T08:40:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 What's The Point (score 55.1) +🥈 #3 Capricorn Man (score 49.1) +🥉 #7 Oscar Winner (score 43.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 3 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 What's The Point: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 90/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Capricorn Man: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Oscar Winner: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 66/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | What's The Point | 55.1 | 0.2579 | 0.515 | track, form, barrier, weight, pace, fitn | +| 2 | 3 | Capricorn Man | 49.1 | 0.1565 | 0.6139 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 3 | 7 | Oscar Winner | 43.8 | 0.1006 | 0.7049 | barrier, form, weight, pace, fitness, co | +| 4 | 10 | Magnaburma | 43.6 | 0.0989 | 0.7894 | barrier, form, track, weight, distance, | +| 5 | 6 | Rommel's Goddess | 42.6 | 0.091 | 0.8514 | barrier, jockey, weight, track, pace, fo | +| 6 | 1 | Lucky Landing | 41.7 | 0.0844 | 0.9044 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, pace, tra | + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 1 — Catanach's Jewellers Mrc150 Partner +1100m | Soft 7 | BM74 | Start 2026-08-15T02:25:00Z | 14 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Markdel (score 66.3) +🥈 #12 Savoyard (score 54.5) +🥉 #4 Behaviour (score 46.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 12 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Markdel: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #12 Savoyard: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #4 Behaviour: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 90/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Markdel | 66.3 | 0.3432 | 0.5392 | distance, track, track_distance, weight, | +| 2 | 12 | Savoyard | 54.5 | 0.1284 | 0.6035 | condition, barrier, jockey, fitness, wei | +| 3 | 4 | Behaviour | 46.8 | 0.0676 | 0.6656 | barrier, form, weight, track, pace, jock | +| 4 | 10 | Fundamental Nature | 46.2 | 0.0643 | 0.7268 | distance, fitness, barrier, weight, pace | +| 5 | 14 | Walter Spur | 45.8 | 0.0622 | 0.7879 | form, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 6 | 2 | Piastri | 45.6 | 0.0612 | 0.8364 | weight, distance, form, pace, track, tra | + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 2 — Remembering Diatribe +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 3 — Brian Markovic Memorial +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 4 — Sportsbet More Places Handicap +1400m | Soft 7 | BM90 | Start 2026-08-15T04:10:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Duchess Zou (score 68.4) +🥈 #4 Ten Commandments (score 57.1) +🥉 #6 Elouyou (score 52.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Duchess Zou: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #4 Ten Commandments: track + distance combo record; recent form quality (score 77/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Elouyou: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Duchess Zou | 68.4 | 0.4067 | 0.6707 | distance, track, condition, barrier, for | +| 2 | 4 | Ten Commandments | 57.1 | 0.1586 | 0.7507 | track_distance, form, barrier, jockey, c | +| 3 | 6 | Elouyou | 52.2 | 0.1054 | 0.8076 | barrier, distance, jockey, form, weight, | +| 4 | 11 | Boltsaver | 48.9 | 0.0801 | 0.86 | track, barrier, distance, jockey, condit | +| 5 | 3 | Home Rule | 44.8 | 0.0569 | 0.907 | barrier, track_distance, weight, distanc | +| 6 | 7 | Sneaky Sunrise | 43.8 | 0.0524 | 0.9461 | distance, barrier, condition, weight, tr | + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 5 — Tobin Brothers Vain Stakes +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 6 — Quayclean Quezette Stakes +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 7 — Catanachs Jewellers P.B. Lawrence Stakes +1400m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ G2 | Start 2026-08-15T06:00:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Cosmic Crusader (score 70.0) +🥈 #12 Coeur Volante (score 59.7) +🥉 #1 Private Eye (score 51.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 12 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Cosmic Crusader: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track-condition suitability +- #12 Coeur Volante: track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance +- #1 Private Eye: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Cosmic Crusader | 70.0 | 0.4212 | 0.6929 | distance, track, condition, barrier, joc | +| 2 | 12 | Coeur Volante | 59.7 | 0.1785 | 0.7554 | track_distance, barrier, distance, track | +| 3 | 1 | Private Eye | 51.9 | 0.0932 | 0.8021 | track, track_distance, distance, barrier | +| 4 | 8 | Wootton Verni | 47.1 | 0.0625 | 0.8416 | track, barrier, weight, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 13 | Ohope Wins | 43.6 | 0.0467 | 0.877 | condition, jockey, weight, barrier, pace | +| 6 | 6 | Feroce | 41.6 | 0.0395 | 0.911 | barrier, weight, distance, track_distanc | + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 8 — Evergreen Turf Regal Roller Stakes +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Caulfield — Race 9 — Toby Newton Handicap +1600m | Soft 7 | BM100 | Start 2026-08-15T07:15:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 First Chorus (score 65.7) +🥈 #13 Darkbonee (score 57.3) +🥉 #12 Somewhere (score 51.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 13 → 12 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 First Chorus: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; recent form quality (score 97/100) +- #13 Darkbonee: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #12 Somewhere: track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | First Chorus | 65.7 | 0.3533 | 0.6388 | distance, track_distance, form, barrier, | +| 2 | 13 | Darkbonee | 57.3 | 0.1754 | 0.7281 | distance, condition, barrier, jockey, fo | +| 3 | 12 | Somewhere | 51.7 | 0.11 | 0.7783 | track_distance, barrier, track, jockey, | +| 4 | 11 | Lovelycut | 49.2 | 0.0893 | 0.822 | condition, form, jockey, barrier, pace, | +| 5 | 2 | Just Folk | 42.3 | 0.0503 | 0.8645 | weight, form, barrier, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 3 | Light Infantry Man | 40.6 | 0.0436 | 0.9067 | barrier, weight, track_distance, conditi | + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 1 — Become A Brc Member F&M Class 3 Plate +1350m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ CL3 FM | Start 2026-08-15T01:43:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 She Ours (score 53.1) +🥈 #3 Thats Archies Girl (score 49.1) +🥉 #1 Celtic Sin (score 48.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 3 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 She Ours: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Thats Archies Girl: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 69/100) +- #1 Celtic Sin: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 59/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | She Ours | 53.1 | 0.2064 | 0.4985 | distance, track_distance, barrier, jocke | +| 2 | 3 | Thats Archies Girl | 49.1 | 0.1479 | 0.6357 | barrier, weight, form, track, condition, | +| 3 | 1 | Celtic Sin | 48.8 | 0.1442 | 0.7662 | barrier, weight, form, distance, conditi | +| 4 | 2 | Hey Daisy | 48.2 | 0.1372 | 0.8776 | barrier, weight, form, condition, track, | +| 5 | 5 | Lukey Blue | 47.6 | 0.1305 | 0.9681 | distance, barrier, weight, form, pace, c | +| 6 | 4 | Trafalgar Square | 45.7 | 0.1114 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, condition, dist | + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 2 — Family Raceday 12 September Qtis 3Yo +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 3 — Mekka Raceday 22 August BM90 Handicap +2200m | Soft 5 | BM90 | Start 2026-08-15T02:53:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Firm Agreement (score 50.1) +🥈 #5 The Right Way (score 44.7) +🥉 #2 Cavalry Man (score 42.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 5 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Firm Agreement: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 The Right Way: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #2 Cavalry Man: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 60/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Firm Agreement | 50.1 | 0.2722 | 0.5867 | distance, barrier, weight, form, pace, c | +| 2 | 5 | The Right Way | 44.7 | 0.1736 | 0.7254 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 2 | Cavalry Man | 42.2 | 0.1409 | 0.8398 | barrier, weight, form, pace, track, fitn | +| 4 | 8 | Marenaro | 42.0 | 0.1386 | 0.9468 | barrier, condition, pace, form, distance | +| 5 | 3 | Felix The Scat | 39.7 | 0.1144 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track, condition, | +| 6 | 4 | Fernao | 38.9 | 0.1071 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 4 — Sky Racing Cg&E Class 3 Plate +1350m | Soft 5 | 3YO+ CL3 CG | Start 2026-08-15T03:28:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Meldubious (score 51.0) +🥈 #3 Bee Exact (score 46.9) +🥉 #1 Aldolfito (score 45.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 3 → 1 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Meldubious: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 72/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Bee Exact: form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 72/100) +- #1 Aldolfito: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 55/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Meldubious | 51.0 | 0.2349 | 0.5542 | barrier, form, weight, jockey, pace, con | +| 2 | 3 | Bee Exact | 46.9 | 0.1669 | 0.667 | jockey, weight, form, barrier, pace, con | +| 3 | 1 | Aldolfito | 45.8 | 0.1523 | 0.7752 | barrier, weight, form, distance, track_d | +| 4 | 12 | Lockyer | 42.2 | 0.1128 | 0.8707 | track_distance, weight, form, barrier, d | +| 5 | 9 | Razors | 41.7 | 0.1082 | 0.9421 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | +| 6 | 8 | Meltdown | 40.2 | 0.0955 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 5 — Xxxx Class 6 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 6 — Kidman BM70 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 7 — Cbt Cg&E BM78 Handicap +1200m | Soft 5 | BM78 CG | Start 2026-08-15T05:17:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Braveheart (score 65.6) +🥈 #11 Count Nicholas (score 44.6) +🥉 #7 True Amor (score 40.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 11 → 7 +**Confidence:** HIGH — 100/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Braveheart: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 95/100); track-condition suitability +- #11 Count Nicholas: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 61/100) +- #7 True Amor: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Braveheart | 65.6 | 0.5477 | 0.7128 | distance, form, condition, barrier, trac | +| 2 | 11 | Count Nicholas | 44.6 | 0.0952 | 0.7664 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, pace, dis | +| 3 | 7 | True Amor | 40.9 | 0.0699 | 0.8125 | barrier, weight, distance, track_distanc | +| 4 | 4 | Muschialli | 37.7 | 0.0536 | 0.8564 | weight, form, pace, jockey, distance, ba | +| 5 | 5 | Addriel | 35.9 | 0.0461 | 0.8991 | weight, distance, barrier, pace, track_d | +| 6 | 12 | Calico Jack | 35.3 | 0.0439 | 0.9395 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, distan | + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 8 — Bundaberg Rum F&M BM78 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Doomben — Race 9 — Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 2 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 3 +Synthetic | Start 2026-08-15T03:44:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Bobby's My Mate (score 51.7) +🥈 #4 Dun Darte Cheap (score 47.5) +🥉 #13 Boscatine (score 47.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 13 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 0.963) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Bobby's My Mate: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #4 Dun Darte Cheap: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #13 Boscatine: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Bobby's My Mate | 51.7 | 0.1533 | 0.3695 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 4 | Dun Darte Cheap | 47.5 | 0.1081 | 0.464 | weight, barrier, pace, jockey, form | +| 3 | 13 | Boscatine | 47.5 | 0.1081 | 0.5578 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | +| 4 | 10 | Secret Rose | 45.9 | 0.0946 | 0.6427 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, con | +| 5 | 16 | O'Reilly's Shout | 45.8 | 0.0938 | 0.7077 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 6 | 7 | Edge Of Infinity | 44.6 | 0.0849 | 0.7596 | track, jockey, weight, form, pace, condi | + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 4 +Synthetic | Start 2026-08-15T04:19:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Cast Party (score 50.3) +🥈 #7 Brain Wave (score 46.0) +🥉 #5 Weekend Artist (score 45.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 7 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Cast Party: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 78/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #7 Brain Wave: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Weekend Artist: recent form quality (score 78/100); track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Cast Party | 50.3 | 0.2261 | 0.5369 | condition, form, weight, barrier, pace, | +| 2 | 7 | Brain Wave | 46.0 | 0.158 | 0.6884 | barrier, track, weight, form, pace, jock | +| 3 | 5 | Weekend Artist | 45.6 | 0.1528 | 0.7867 | form, condition, weight, barrier, track, | +| 4 | 2 | Golden Smile | 45.5 | 0.1515 | 0.8553 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 8 | Papal Miss | 40.3 | 0.0982 | 0.9149 | barrier, form, track, condition, pace, w | +| 6 | 10 | Brave Boy | 36.0 | 0.0687 | 0.9707 | barrier, jockey, pace, weight, condition | + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 5 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 6 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Gold Coast Polytrack — Race 7 +Synthetic | Start 2026-08-15T06:44:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 I Am Voodoo (score 50.2) +🥈 #5 Darth Invader (score 41.6) +🥉 #8 Mongolian Spring (score 41.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 5 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.982) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 I Am Voodoo: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #5 Darth Invader: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 50/100) +- #8 Mongolian Spring: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 60/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | I Am Voodoo | 50.2 | 0.2226 | 0.4355 | condition, weight, barrier, track, pace, | +| 2 | 5 | Darth Invader | 41.6 | 0.1087 | 0.5381 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 8 | Mongolian Spring | 41.1 | 0.1043 | 0.614 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, fit | +| 4 | 7 | Qickwit | 40.9 | 0.1025 | 0.6881 | barrier, weight, track, form, pace, jock | +| 5 | 10 | Shapin Power | 37.3 | 0.076 | 0.7498 | barrier, jockey, track, weight, pace, co | +| 6 | 2 | Fast Fusion | 37.0 | 0.0741 | 0.8047 | condition, weight, track, pace, form, ba | + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 2 +Good 4 | Start 2026-08-15T03:20:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 For Adeline (score 50.8) +🥈 #7 Sweet 'N' Elite (score 45.4) +🥉 #4 Silverturn (score 44.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 7 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.968) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 For Adeline: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #7 Sweet 'N' Elite: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Silverturn: track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | For Adeline | 50.8 | 0.2631 | 0.5813 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 7 | Sweet 'N' Elite | 45.4 | 0.1677 | 0.7131 | track, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, fo | +| 3 | 4 | Silverturn | 44.1 | 0.1505 | 0.8363 | condition, weight, barrier, jockey, pace | +| 4 | 5 | Bubble Tea | 42.5 | 0.1317 | 0.9442 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 1 | Amore Sirena | 41.7 | 0.1232 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 2 | Desarae Doll | 40.1 | 0.1079 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, jockey | + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 3 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 4 +Good 4 | Start 2026-08-15T04:40:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Superstitions (score 47.6) +🥈 #7 Flourish (score 41.9) +🥉 #6 Sharman Pete (score 40.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 7 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Superstitions: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability +- #7 Flourish: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #6 Sharman Pete: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Superstitions | 47.6 | 0.2116 | 0.4584 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 2 | 7 | Flourish | 41.9 | 0.1316 | 0.5736 | barrier, weight, jockey, condition, pace | +| 3 | 6 | Sharman Pete | 40.3 | 0.1152 | 0.6822 | track, weight, barrier, pace, jockey, co | +| 4 | 8 | Miss Boho Fashion | 40.3 | 0.1152 | 0.783 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 5 | 1 | Better Draw | 39.6 | 0.1086 | 0.8655 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 4 | Foo Fighter | 38.7 | 0.1008 | 0.9447 | weight, barrier, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 5 +Good 4 | Start 2026-08-15T05:20:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Insta Worthy (score 48.7) +🥈 #3 Secret Cypher (score 41.3) +🥉 #2 Nordic Invader (score 40.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Insta Worthy: form consistency (low variance = reliable); track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Secret Cypher: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Nordic Invader: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Insta Worthy | 48.7 | 0.2909 | 0.5998 | jockey, condition, barrier, weight, pace | +| 2 | 3 | Secret Cypher | 41.3 | 0.157 | 0.6967 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 3 | 2 | Nordic Invader | 40.9 | 0.1519 | 0.7873 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 4 | 6 | Third Master | 35.5 | 0.0968 | 0.8713 | barrier, weight, track, pace, form, jock | +| 5 | 7 | Accept Power | 34.7 | 0.0906 | 0.9437 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, fit | +| 6 | 9 | Majestic Blaze | 33.8 | 0.084 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, track, pace, form, jock | + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 6 +Good 4 | Start 2026-08-15T06:00:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Lucky Jim (score 50.0) +🥈 #1 Deal An Ace (score 44.6) +🥉 #2 The Impeckable (score 44.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 1 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Lucky Jim: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 72/100) +- #1 Deal An Ace: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 The Impeckable: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Lucky Jim | 50.0 | 0.2554 | 0.5812 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, cond | +| 2 | 1 | Deal An Ace | 44.6 | 0.1629 | 0.7134 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 3 | 2 | The Impeckable | 44.6 | 0.1629 | 0.8021 | track, barrier, weight, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 8 | Grey Power | 42.1 | 0.1322 | 0.8723 | barrier, jockey, weight, track, pace, fo | +| 5 | 7 | Dragon Song | 37.3 | 0.0886 | 0.9391 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 5 | Betta Al | 34.5 | 0.0702 | 1.0 | weight, condition, barrier, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Innisfail — Race 7 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 1 — Duncan Electrical/Foxalicious Fruit +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 2 — Hiqa/Terry Ducks Ross Memorial +1100m | Soft | BM0-58 | Start 2026-08-15T04:47:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Arrogant Miss (score 55.0) +🥈 #6 Buades (score 47.3) +🥉 #11 Forgetaboutit (score 43.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 6 → 11 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Arrogant Miss: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Buades: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 68/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #11 Forgetaboutit: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); recent form quality (score 58/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Arrogant Miss | 55.0 | 0.2739 | 0.5249 | track, track_distance, barrier, form, di | +| 2 | 6 | Buades | 47.3 | 0.1442 | 0.6207 | condition, form, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 11 | Forgetaboutit | 43.7 | 0.1068 | 0.7018 | barrier, jockey, form, distance, weight, | +| 4 | 1 | Galaxy General | 42.4 | 0.0958 | 0.7711 | barrier, weight, form, distance, pace, c | +| 5 | 7 | Only The Best | 40.4 | 0.0811 | 0.8343 | barrier, form, weight, pace, distance, j | +| 6 | 4 | Snappy Sweetheart | 38.5 | 0.0692 | 0.8954 | track, weight, pace, fitness, barrier, j | + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 3 — Katherine Club Trobis Maiden +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 4 — Fred Nt Infrastructure Handicap +1300m | Soft | BM54 | Start 2026-08-15T06:02:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Frawley (score 58.3) +🥈 #3 Brazen Sailor (score 52.0) +🥉 #9 Saxon Beach (score 47.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Frawley: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; track-condition suitability +- #3 Brazen Sailor: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 89/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #9 Saxon Beach: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Frawley | 58.3 | 0.3039 | 0.6022 | track, track_distance, condition, distan | +| 2 | 3 | Brazen Sailor | 52.0 | 0.1798 | 0.7122 | distance, form, barrier, weight, pace, f | +| 3 | 9 | Saxon Beach | 47.0 | 0.1185 | 0.7993 | barrier, jockey, distance, form, weight, | +| 4 | 4 | Yaki Ishi | 46.1 | 0.11 | 0.8671 | barrier, weight, form, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 2 | Anecdotal | 43.3 | 0.0871 | 0.925 | weight, barrier, distance, jockey, pace, | +| 6 | 5 | Lavender Glory | 40.3 | 0.0678 | 0.9672 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, jockey, | + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 5 — Imparja Handicap +1300m | Soft | BM54 | Start 2026-08-15T06:33:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #9 Brave Heritage (score 51.1) +🥈 #5 Miami Baby (score 45.1) +🥉 #8 Ariarne (score 44.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 9 → 5 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #9 Brave Heritage: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Miami Baby: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #8 Ariarne: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 9 | Brave Heritage | 51.1 | 0.2277 | 0.4982 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 5 | Miami Baby | 45.1 | 0.1381 | 0.6221 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, condition | +| 3 | 8 | Ariarne | 44.6 | 0.1325 | 0.7352 | track, track_distance, barrier, weight, | +| 4 | 2 | I Loverain | 43.8 | 0.1239 | 0.8383 | barrier, distance, weight, condition, pa | +| 5 | 3 | Okesutora | 42.7 | 0.1131 | 0.9058 | weight, barrier, jockey, condition, pace | +| 6 | 1 | Kessler | 41.6 | 0.1032 | 0.957 | weight, barrier, distance, condition, pa | + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 6 — Great Northern/Hankel Moffatt Memorial +1700m | Soft | BM0-64 | Start 2026-08-15T07:04:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 The Accelator (score 66.7) +🥈 #2 Unquestionably (score 50.7) +🥉 #1 Rock Revolution (score 43.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 The Accelator: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #2 Unquestionably: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #1 Rock Revolution: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | The Accelator | 66.7 | 0.5294 | 0.7449 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 2 | 2 | Unquestionably | 50.7 | 0.1395 | 0.8125 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, condition | +| 3 | 1 | Rock Revolution | 43.4 | 0.076 | 0.8601 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 4 | 7 | Girls Girls Girls | 42.0 | 0.0676 | 0.9008 | barrier, condition, weight, pace, jockey | +| 5 | 3 | Villa Seventynine | 37.8 | 0.0476 | 0.9369 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, condition | +| 6 | 5 | Aggressive | 35.9 | 0.0407 | 0.9686 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, jockey | + +--- + +### Katherine — Race 7 — Ladbrokes Katherine Cup +1700m | Soft | BMNT | Start 2026-08-15T07:34:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Venting (score 63.4) +🥈 #3 The Girl's Boy (score 48.5) +🥉 #4 Prince Jofra (score 44.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 74/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Venting: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; track-condition suitability +- #3 The Girl's Boy: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Prince Jofra: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Venting | 63.4 | 0.4555 | 0.6782 | track, track_distance, condition, weight | +| 2 | 3 | The Girl's Boy | 48.5 | 0.1316 | 0.7664 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | +| 3 | 4 | Prince Jofra | 44.1 | 0.0912 | 0.8497 | distance, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, | +| 4 | 6 | Hotim English | 43.7 | 0.0882 | 0.9113 | barrier, weight, form, pace, fitness, jo | +| 5 | 5 | Capitol Hill | 43.0 | 0.0832 | 0.9558 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, fit | +| 6 | 2 | Vega Magnifico | 39.4 | 0.0616 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, fitness, co | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 1 — Mollie Fitzgerald Champion Apprentice +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 2 — Keagan Latham Champion Jockey Maiden +1000m | Good 4 | MDN | Start 2026-08-15T03:04:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Ho Aloha (score 55.9) +🥈 #12 Smooth Red (score 45.2) +🥉 #5 Lady Talea (score 39.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 12 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.908) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Ho Aloha: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 66/100) +- #12 Smooth Red: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Lady Talea: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Ho Aloha | 55.9 | 0.3181 | 0.527 | track, barrier, form, weight, jockey, co | +| 2 | 12 | Smooth Red | 45.2 | 0.1304 | 0.6041 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 3 | 5 | Lady Talea | 39.1 | 0.0784 | 0.6751 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | +| 4 | 10 | Farcolo | 38.9 | 0.0771 | 0.7377 | distance, weight, pace, barrier, jockey, | +| 5 | 11 | That'Sallshewrote | 37.9 | 0.071 | 0.7963 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 6 | 2 | Extreme Courage | 36.4 | 0.0626 | 0.853 | distance, weight, condition, pace, barri | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 3 — Beer Carpenter Racing Champion Trainer +1200m | Good 4 | MDN | Start 2026-08-15T03:39:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #13 Ho Aloha (score 65.3) +🥈 #9 Watch Me Tango (score 56.2) +🥉 #12 Ancestral (score 38.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 13 → 9 → 12 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 67/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.898) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #13 Ho Aloha: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #9 Watch Me Tango: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #12 Ancestral: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 13 | Ho Aloha | 65.3 | 0.4457 | 0.7011 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 2 | 9 | Watch Me Tango | 56.2 | 0.2088 | 0.7444 | barrier, form, weight, pace, class | +| 3 | 12 | Ancestral | 38.2 | 0.0466 | 0.7841 | barrier, weight, pace | +| 4 | 3 | Never Know | 37.3 | 0.0432 | 0.8236 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 11 | Andarna | 36.3 | 0.0398 | 0.8608 | weight, track, condition, pace, jockey, | +| 6 | 1 | Cap D'Ail | 36.2 | 0.0394 | 0.8959 | weight, pace, barrier, form | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 4 — Audenzia Itc Horse Of The Year Class 1 +1500m | Good 4 | CL1 | Start 2026-08-15T04:14:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Orange Tsunami (score 57.5) +🥈 #6 Savoonga (score 50.4) +🥉 #3 Philatelic (score 47.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 6 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Orange Tsunami: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 92/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Savoonga: recent form quality (score 74/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #3 Philatelic: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100); form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Orange Tsunami | 57.5 | 0.3048 | 0.606 | distance, form, weight, barrier, pace, c | +| 2 | 6 | Savoonga | 50.4 | 0.1687 | 0.6941 | form, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, cla | +| 3 | 3 | Philatelic | 47.5 | 0.1325 | 0.7616 | barrier, form, jockey, weight, pace, con | +| 4 | 9 | Hussy La Vista | 42.6 | 0.0881 | 0.8268 | form, barrier, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 5 | 10 | Excuseme Mrofficer | 39.4 | 0.0675 | 0.8839 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | +| 6 | 4 | Costabit | 39.0 | 0.0652 | 0.9259 | barrier, weight, distance, track_distanc | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 5 — Markey Saddlery Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 6 — Tristan Triffitt Exclusive Estate Agents +1200m | Good 4 | BM64 | Start 2026-08-15T05:29:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Stakeholder (score 60.9) +🥈 #6 Denial (score 56.7) +🥉 #2 Commanding Belle (score 47.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 6 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Stakeholder: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #6 Denial: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #2 Commanding Belle: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Stakeholder | 60.9 | 0.3007 | 0.6071 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 2 | 6 | Denial | 56.7 | 0.2119 | 0.6947 | distance, track, track_distance, jockey, | +| 3 | 2 | Commanding Belle | 47.0 | 0.0944 | 0.7641 | track, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 1 | Gooloo Bucky | 46.1 | 0.0876 | 0.8146 | track_distance, weight, barrier, track, | +| 5 | 9 | Seven Days | 43.3 | 0.0694 | 0.855 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, fit | +| 6 | 3 | Powder Man | 39.5 | 0.0505 | 0.8953 | weight, distance, barrier, jockey, pace, | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 7 — Harcourts Dapto,Albion Park,Shellharbour +1600m | Good 4 | BM68 | Start 2026-08-15T06:05:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Southerly Buster (score 55.6) +🥈 #8 Darn Cute (score 48.8) +🥉 #6 Bellevue (score 46.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 8 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Southerly Buster: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 78/100); form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #8 Darn Cute: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Bellevue: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Southerly Buster | 55.6 | 0.254 | 0.519 | distance, form, jockey, weight, conditio | +| 2 | 8 | Darn Cute | 48.8 | 0.1441 | 0.6133 | track, track_distance, barrier, distance | +| 3 | 6 | Bellevue | 46.7 | 0.121 | 0.6872 | condition, barrier, weight, form, pace, | +| 4 | 4 | Brazil | 43.7 | 0.0942 | 0.7411 | jockey, distance, weight, barrier, form, | +| 5 | 1 | Natural Ruler | 40.8 | 0.074 | 0.7899 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 6 | 11 | Prefer Diamonds | 37.0 | 0.0539 | 0.8359 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, form, | + +--- + +### Kembla Grange — Race 8 — Illawarra Production Services BM64 +1000m | Good 4 | BM64 | Start 2026-08-15T06:39:00Z | 13 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 At Her Mercy (score 62.5) +🥈 #8 Misty Veil (score 57.8) +🥉 #3 Still Alice (score 55.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 8 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 At Her Mercy: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #8 Misty Veil: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 72/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Still Alice: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; historical distance performance + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | At Her Mercy | 62.5 | 0.253 | 0.5699 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 2 | 8 | Misty Veil | 57.8 | 0.171 | 0.6904 | distance, form, barrier, condition, weig | +| 3 | 3 | Still Alice | 55.9 | 0.146 | 0.7455 | track, track_distance, distance, conditi | +| 4 | 2 | Where's The Circus | 53.6 | 0.1205 | 0.7978 | distance, barrier, jockey, weight, fitne | +| 5 | 11 | Half Pipe | 44.2 | 0.0551 | 0.8464 | distance, barrier, weight, fitness, pace | +| 6 | 7 | Borjnord | 43.6 | 0.0524 | 0.8859 | condition, jockey, weight, pace, barrier | + +--- + +### Longreach — Race 1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Longreach — Race 2 +Good | Start 2026-08-15T04:20:00Z | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 All Too Lucky (score 55.5) +🥈 #4 Inquisitive Legend (score 50.0) +🥉 #5 Salt Lake Betty (score 47.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 4 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 All Too Lucky: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 79/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Inquisitive Legend: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Salt Lake Betty: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | All Too Lucky | 55.5 | 0.3242 | 0.6942 | track, form, weight, jockey, barrier, pa | +| 2 | 4 | Inquisitive Legend | 50.0 | 0.205 | 0.8105 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | +| 3 | 5 | Salt Lake Betty | 47.4 | 0.165 | 0.9131 | barrier, form, weight, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 1 | Arden Green | 43.2 | 0.1163 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 6 | Superstitious | 41.7 | 0.1026 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 3 | Ichiberu | 39.7 | 0.0869 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, form, pace, condition, | + +--- + +### Longreach — Race 3 +Good | Start 2026-08-15T05:00:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Day To Remember (score 63.3) +🥈 #4 The Stone Mason (score 50.8) +🥉 #2 Ricallen (score 48.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 2 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 72/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Day To Remember: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 80/100) +- #4 The Stone Mason: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 84/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Ricallen: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 70/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Day To Remember | 63.3 | 0.4594 | 0.7543 | track, weight, form, jockey, barrier, co | +| 2 | 4 | The Stone Mason | 50.8 | 0.1621 | 0.8302 | track, form, weight, barrier, pace, cond | +| 3 | 2 | Ricallen | 48.4 | 0.1327 | 0.8846 | weight, form, barrier, pace, jockey, con | +| 4 | 8 | Pensiero | 41.7 | 0.0759 | 0.9281 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 5 | 7 | Valubious | 37.7 | 0.0544 | 0.9667 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 5 | Flop Turn River | 35.0 | 0.0435 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, condition | + +--- + +### Longreach — Race 4 +Good | Start 2026-08-15T05:40:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Schmoozer (score 62.2) +🥈 #7 Badge (score 46.3) +🥉 #1 Scorched Land (score 45.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 7 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 74/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.984) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Schmoozer: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 89/100) +- #7 Badge: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; recent form quality (score 60/100) +- #1 Scorched Land: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 64/100); form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Schmoozer | 62.2 | 0.4856 | 0.7354 | track, barrier, form, jockey, condition, | +| 2 | 7 | Badge | 46.3 | 0.1291 | 0.8249 | barrier, track, form, condition, weight, | +| 3 | 1 | Scorched Land | 45.5 | 0.1208 | 0.9038 | weight, form, jockey, barrier, pace, con | +| 4 | 6 | Moorabinda Mick | 41.9 | 0.0895 | 0.9595 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 5 | 2 | Fine Shot | 40.4 | 0.0789 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, fitness, pace, conditio | +| 6 | 3 | Here He Looms | 36.2 | 0.0556 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, track, condition, pace, | + +--- + +### Longreach — Race 5 +Good | Start 2026-08-15T06:20:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Desert Star (score 50.8) +🥈 #7 Monday Choice (score 44.2) +🥉 #3 Smashing Rosie (score 43.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 7 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Desert Star: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #7 Monday Choice: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 60/100) +- #3 Smashing Rosie: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Desert Star | 50.8 | 0.2807 | 0.5954 | track, weight, barrier, form, pace, jock | +| 2 | 7 | Monday Choice | 44.2 | 0.1619 | 0.7336 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, cond | +| 3 | 3 | Smashing Rosie | 43.5 | 0.1528 | 0.8597 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 4 | 6 | Miss Highfalutin | 42.3 | 0.1382 | 0.9429 | barrier, weight, form, pace, track, jock | +| 5 | 5 | Summer Sizzling | 41.2 | 0.1261 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 6 | 4 | Outback Step | 36.2 | 0.0831 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, fitness, | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 1 — Sportsbet Jockey Watch Handicap +2426m | Heavy 9 | BM78 | Start 2026-08-15T02:38:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Harsh (score 61.6) +🥈 #1 Wuddzz (score 49.3) +🥉 #5 High Society Girl (score 44.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 1 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 72/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Harsh: track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 86/100); form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #1 Wuddzz: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 High Society Girl: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 54/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Harsh | 61.6 | 0.4296 | 0.6897 | condition, form, jockey, barrier, track, | +| 2 | 1 | Wuddzz | 49.3 | 0.1541 | 0.7631 | barrier, condition, weight, form, pace, | +| 3 | 5 | High Society Girl | 44.8 | 0.1059 | 0.8237 | barrier, condition, form, pace, weight, | +| 4 | 10 | Alekhine's Gun | 40.4 | 0.0734 | 0.8763 | track, barrier, pace, weight, form, jock | +| 5 | 7 | Harley'n'Rose | 38.1 | 0.0606 | 0.9272 | barrier, form, track, pace, weight, jock | +| 6 | 8 | Jackson Run | 36.4 | 0.0526 | 0.9721 | barrier, pace, weight, jockey, condition | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 2 — Sportsbet Blackbook Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 3 — Sportsbet Race Previews Handicap +1000m | Heavy 9 | BM78 | Start 2026-08-15T03:47:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Deepfloat Diva (score 48.4) +🥈 #2 Raikoke (score 43.8) +🥉 #7 Babayka (score 43.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Deepfloat Diva: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; historical distance performance +- #2 Raikoke: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 54/100) +- #7 Babayka: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Deepfloat Diva | 48.4 | 0.2213 | 0.5229 | track, track_distance, distance, weight, | +| 2 | 2 | Raikoke | 43.8 | 0.1508 | 0.67 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 7 | Babayka | 43.8 | 0.1508 | 0.8009 | condition, barrier, pace, weight, form, | +| 4 | 5 | Bassett Babe | 43.5 | 0.1471 | 0.9108 | track, barrier, fitness, weight, pace, f | +| 5 | 3 | Angel Torque | 42.1 | 0.1309 | 1.0 | jockey, barrier, weight, form, pace, fit | +| 6 | 1 | Mic Drop | 40.0 | 0.1099 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, distance, pace, fitness | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 4 — Thomas Farms Handicap +1000m | Heavy 9 | CL2 | Start 2026-08-15T04:22:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Stand Alone (score 69.4) +🥈 #8 Tornado's Sister (score 46.6) +🥉 #3 Bohemian Angel (score 45.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 8 → 3 +**Confidence:** HIGH — 100/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Stand Alone: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #8 Tornado's Sister: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 73/100) +- #3 Bohemian Angel: track-condition suitability; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Stand Alone | 69.4 | 0.6125 | 0.7877 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 2 | 8 | Tornado's Sister | 46.6 | 0.0916 | 0.8561 | barrier, distance, form, pace, weight, j | +| 3 | 3 | Bohemian Angel | 45.5 | 0.0836 | 0.8924 | condition, jockey, weight, barrier, form | +| 4 | 5 | Summertime Madness | 43.1 | 0.0684 | 0.9261 | form, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, dis | +| 5 | 9 | Emmooki Magic | 35.5 | 0.0363 | 0.9549 | barrier, condition, pace, form, weight, | +| 6 | 1 | Intellectual | 34.6 | 0.0337 | 0.9814 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, fitness, | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 5 — Hahn Handicap +1569m | Heavy 9 | BM66 | Start 2026-08-15T04:57:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Extinguish (score 66.2) +🥈 #4 Canny Defense (score 58.8) +🥉 #2 Officiate (score 56.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 4 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Extinguish: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Canny Defense: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Officiate: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Extinguish | 66.2 | 0.2659 | 0.5279 | track, condition, barrier, jockey, form, | +| 2 | 4 | Canny Defense | 58.8 | 0.1435 | 0.6454 | track, condition, barrier, weight, jocke | +| 3 | 2 | Officiate | 56.5 | 0.1185 | 0.7424 | track, condition, weight, barrier, form, | +| 4 | 1 | Nicish | 56.4 | 0.1175 | 0.8266 | form, weight, track, condition, barrier, | +| 5 | 7 | Australia Forever | 54.1 | 0.097 | 0.8905 | condition, barrier, track, jockey, form, | +| 6 | 11 | Full Commitment | 52.4 | 0.0842 | 0.9297 | track, barrier, condition, form, weight, | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 6 — Sportsbet Green Tick Handicap +1000m | Heavy 9 | BM0-66 | Start 2026-08-15T05:37:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 From The Block (score 56.1) +🥈 #12 Zoutrail (score 51.1) +🥉 #7 Sassy Little Miss (score 49.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 12 → 7 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 From The Block: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #12 Zoutrail: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #7 Sassy Little Miss: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 79/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | From The Block | 56.1 | 0.2234 | 0.4964 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 2 | 12 | Zoutrail | 51.1 | 0.1473 | 0.614 | track, condition, jockey, form, barrier, | +| 3 | 7 | Sassy Little Miss | 49.2 | 0.1257 | 0.7011 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, fitn | +| 4 | 4 | Up The Den | 48.4 | 0.1176 | 0.7786 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 5 | 6 | Squad | 44.8 | 0.0871 | 0.8411 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, fit | +| 6 | 9 | Nostryia | 43.4 | 0.0775 | 0.9 | condition, barrier, weight, form, pace, | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 7 — Pfd Food Services Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 8 — Festival Hire Handicap +1250m | Heavy 9 | BM0-62 | Start 2026-08-15T06:47:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Pierroplane (score 63.1) +🥈 #3 Power Dancer (score 56.1) +🥉 #8 Justica's Bonus (score 49.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 3 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Pierroplane: track-specific record; track-condition suitability; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #3 Power Dancer: barrier suitability for the expected pace; historical distance performance; track + distance combo record +- #8 Justica's Bonus: recent form quality (score 93/100); weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Pierroplane | 63.1 | 0.2578 | 0.482 | track, condition, jockey, form, weight, | +| 2 | 3 | Power Dancer | 56.1 | 0.1439 | 0.5528 | barrier, distance, track_distance, condi | +| 3 | 8 | Justica's Bonus | 49.1 | 0.0803 | 0.6109 | form, weight, condition, barrier, pace, | +| 4 | 15 | Our Divinyl | 47.6 | 0.0709 | 0.662 | barrier, form, condition, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 9 | Blackjack | 45.2 | 0.058 | 0.705 | form, weight, barrier, jockey, pace, fit | +| 6 | 12 | Hysterical Lady | 43.7 | 0.0512 | 0.7462 | distance, track_distance, weight, pace, | + +--- + +### Morphettville Parks — Race 9 — Quayclean Handicap +1400m | Heavy 9 | BM0-72 | Start 2026-08-15T07:27:00Z | 11 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Bold Secret (score 66.7) +🥈 #7 Cielao (score 45.0) +🥉 #9 Hot Strut (score 44.0) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 7 → 9 +**Confidence:** HIGH — 100/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Bold Secret: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #7 Cielao: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; weight handling relative to the field +- #9 Hot Strut: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 64/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Bold Secret | 66.7 | 0.5037 | 0.6623 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 2 | 7 | Cielao | 45.0 | 0.0826 | 0.7261 | distance, track_distance, weight, barrie | +| 3 | 9 | Hot Strut | 44.0 | 0.076 | 0.781 | barrier, form, weight, pace, track, cond | +| 4 | 10 | Mellifluent | 41.9 | 0.0638 | 0.827 | condition, barrier, weight, pace, distan | +| 5 | 14 | Attain | 40.1 | 0.0549 | 0.8712 | barrier, pace, condition, form, weight, | +| 6 | 3 | Big Sue | 38.0 | 0.0461 | 0.9054 | condition, weight, barrier, form, pace, | + +--- + +### Narrandera — Race 1 — Hutchins Bros Engineering Class 3 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Narrandera — Race 2 — Community Bank Narrandera & District +1400m | Heavy 8 | MDN | Start 2026-08-15T04:06:00Z | 16 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 I'Ve Forgotten (score 59.3) +🥈 #12 Sensesational Star (score 51.4) +🥉 #8 Classic Cracker (score 48.8) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 12 → 8 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 I'Ve Forgotten: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #12 Sensesational Star: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #8 Classic Cracker: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | I'Ve Forgotten | 59.3 | 0.2362 | 0.4569 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 12 | Sensesational Star | 51.4 | 0.1223 | 0.5355 | track, track_distance, barrier, weight, | +| 3 | 8 | Classic Cracker | 48.8 | 0.0984 | 0.5988 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 4 | 1 | Canola Way | 46.1 | 0.0786 | 0.6615 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 6 | Sharp Remark | 43.5 | 0.0633 | 0.7179 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, cla | +| 6 | 4 | Mount Ogilvie | 43.4 | 0.0628 | 0.7636 | weight, jockey, pace, barrier, form | + +--- + +### Narrandera — Race 3 — Pcr Building Services Pty Ltd Maiden +1000m | Heavy 8 | MDN | Start 2026-08-15T04:41:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #8 Persuasive Gal (score 54.5) +🥈 #5 Bella Katelyn (score 48.7) +🥉 #12 Relax The Spirit (score 46.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 8 → 5 → 12 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.982) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #8 Persuasive Gal: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Bella Katelyn: track-specific record; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #12 Relax The Spirit: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 8 | Persuasive Gal | 54.5 | 0.2188 | 0.467 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 2 | 5 | Bella Katelyn | 48.7 | 0.1349 | 0.5721 | track, track_distance, barrier, weight, | +| 3 | 12 | Relax The Spirit | 46.6 | 0.1133 | 0.6539 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 3 | Actually Romantic | 45.7 | 0.1051 | 0.7261 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 6 | Conjola Girl | 42.7 | 0.0818 | 0.7852 | weight, pace, barrier, form | +| 6 | 7 | Ebony Eyes | 41.2 | 0.0722 | 0.8383 | barrier, weight, pace, form | + +--- + +### Narrandera — Race 4 — Chemsave Narrandera Pharmacy BM50 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Narrandera — Race 5 — Narrandera Ex- Servicemens T C Lee Cup +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Narrandera — Race 6 — Narrandera Bakery BM50 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Quorn — Race 1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Quorn — Race 2 +Good | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Costless (score 52.9) +🥈 #3 Footprints (score 48.6) +🥉 #2 Brullen (score 44.9) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 3 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Costless: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 86/100) +- #3 Footprints: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #2 Brullen: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 67/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Costless | 52.9 | 0.3069 | 0.6789 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 2 | 3 | Footprints | 48.6 | 0.2145 | 0.8069 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 3 | 2 | Brullen | 44.9 | 0.1576 | 0.8813 | weight, barrier, form, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 6 | She's The Rumour | 42.4 | 0.1279 | 0.9509 | weight, barrier, jockey, pace, condition | +| 5 | 4 | Our Beau | 35.9 | 0.0744 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, fitness, co | +| 6 | 7 | One Kind | 35.1 | 0.0696 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, fitnes | + +--- + +### Quorn — Race 3 +Good | 6 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Satay Chicken (score 50.6) +🥈 #4 Exonumia (score 42.2) +🥉 #3 Never Surrender (score 40.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Satay Chicken: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #4 Exonumia: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 58/100) +- #3 Never Surrender: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Satay Chicken | 50.6 | 0.339 | 0.6486 | weight, barrier, jockey, condition, pace | +| 2 | 4 | Exonumia | 42.2 | 0.1683 | 0.7888 | weight, barrier, form, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 3 | Never Surrender | 40.1 | 0.1413 | 0.8979 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 4 | 2 | The Grump | 40.0 | 0.1401 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 5 | 6 | Raw Grunt | 37.0 | 0.1091 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, fit | +| 6 | 5 | Inner Sanctum | 36.2 | 0.1021 | 1.0 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Quorn — Race 4 +Good | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Hamilton Brown (score 46.2) +🥈 #1 Galloping Guru (score 39.1) +🥉 #6 Sengoki (score 38.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 1 → 6 +**Confidence:** LOW — 37/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.988) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Hamilton Brown: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 65/100) +- #1 Galloping Guru: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 50/100) +- #6 Sengoki: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Hamilton Brown | 46.2 | 0.2327 | 0.4861 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 2 | 1 | Galloping Guru | 39.1 | 0.1288 | 0.6065 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 3 | 6 | Sengoki | 38.7 | 0.1246 | 0.7146 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | +| 4 | 7 | Archdeacon | 38.3 | 0.1205 | 0.8017 | form, weight, barrier, pace, jockey, con | +| 5 | 3 | Augusta Rock | 37.0 | 0.1081 | 0.8766 | weight, barrier, pace, condition, form, | +| 6 | 9 | Scandalist | 34.4 | 0.087 | 0.9416 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Quorn — Race 5 +Good | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #2 Overloaded (score 43.5) +🥈 #1 Romans Luck (score 38.1) +🥉 #4 Ghemme (score 36.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 2 → 1 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #2 Overloaded: recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Romans Luck: weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Ghemme: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 2 | Overloaded | 43.5 | 0.2473 | 0.5384 | form, weight, barrier, pace, condition, | +| 2 | 1 | Romans Luck | 38.1 | 0.1577 | 0.6513 | weight, condition, barrier, pace, form, | +| 3 | 4 | Ghemme | 36.1 | 0.1335 | 0.7561 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 4 | 5 | Titan Rising | 34.1 | 0.113 | 0.8471 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 5 | 7 | Lettemgo | 33.2 | 0.1048 | 0.9315 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 6 | 9 | Little Outlaw | 31.5 | 0.091 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Quorn — Race 6 +Good | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Sacred Chord (score 45.7) +🥈 #4 Lord Morton (score 40.0) +🥉 #9 Deploy And Destroy (score 38.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 4 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.986) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Sacred Chord: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 61/100) +- #4 Lord Morton: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #9 Deploy And Destroy: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Sacred Chord | 45.7 | 0.253 | 0.5516 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 2 | 4 | Lord Morton | 40.0 | 0.1574 | 0.6692 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form, con | +| 3 | 9 | Deploy And Destroy | 38.7 | 0.1412 | 0.7638 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 4 | 1 | Shikanic | 36.5 | 0.1176 | 0.846 | weight, barrier, pace, condition, form, | +| 5 | 7 | Sports Choice | 33.9 | 0.0947 | 0.9281 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | +| 6 | 6 | Sea Treasures | 32.2 | 0.0821 | 1.0 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, condition | + +--- + +### Richmond — Race 1 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Richmond — Race 2 +Good | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Instigate (score 60.7) +🥈 #7 Perrieres (score 49.3) +🥉 #6 It's A Power (score 41.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 7 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace FAST, completeness 0.968) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Instigate: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #7 Perrieres: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field +- #6 It's A Power: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 56/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Instigate | 60.7 | 0.4676 | 0.7397 | track, barrier, jockey, form, weight, pa | +| 2 | 7 | Perrieres | 49.3 | 0.1808 | 0.8138 | barrier, jockey, weight, form, pace, cla | +| 3 | 6 | It's A Power | 41.1 | 0.0913 | 0.8761 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, con | +| 4 | 1 | Kadiatcha Man | 38.6 | 0.0741 | 0.9383 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 5 | 2 | Weird Goodbyes | 36.5 | 0.0622 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, condition | +| 6 | 3 | Whiskey Dry | 36.5 | 0.0622 | 1.0 | weight, jockey, barrier, pace, form, con | + +--- + +### Richmond — Race 3 +Good | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Vonk (score 51.2) +🥈 #4 The Wellian (score 46.8) +🥉 #2 Mia Toretto (score 44.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 0.945) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Vonk: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 64/100) +- #4 The Wellian: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Mia Toretto: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 54/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Vonk | 51.2 | 0.2021 | 0.455 | barrier, weight, form, jockey, condition | +| 2 | 4 | The Wellian | 46.8 | 0.1401 | 0.5562 | jockey, barrier, weight, form, pace, con | +| 3 | 2 | Mia Toretto | 44.2 | 0.1128 | 0.6549 | weight, barrier, form, condition, pace, | +| 4 | 5 | Makanui | 42.9 | 0.1012 | 0.7405 | weight, barrier, jockey, form, pace, con | +| 5 | 8 | Azconpete | 42.6 | 0.0987 | 0.8119 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 6 | 3 | Meghan | 40.9 | 0.0857 | 0.882 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, condition | + +--- + +### Richmond — Race 4 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Richmond — Race 5 +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Roma — Race 1 — Lsa Demolition BM55 Handicap +900m | Good | BM55 | Start 2026-08-15T03:58:00Z | 5 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Torvecchio (score 47.7) +🥈 #2 Lunessa (score 37.0) +🥉 #1 Manhattan Thunder (score 36.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 2 → 1 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace VERY FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Torvecchio: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 Lunessa: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #1 Manhattan Thunder: weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace; race-shape / speed-map adjustment + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Torvecchio | 47.7 | 0.4256 | 0.7703 | track, barrier, weight, pace, form, cond | +| 2 | 2 | Lunessa | 37.0 | 0.1745 | 0.905 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey, con | +| 3 | 1 | Manhattan Thunder | 36.7 | 0.1702 | 1.0 | weight, barrier, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 4 | 4 | Matchsticks | 33.9 | 0.1348 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, con | +| 5 | 6 | Storm Dreamer | 29.7 | 0.095 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, condition, form, | + +--- + +### Roma — Race 2 — Hornicks Cypress Qtis Maiden Plate +1200m | Good | MDN | Start 2026-08-15T04:31:00Z | 7 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #3 Willbeking (score 58.1) +🥈 #6 Villicon (score 49.8) +🥉 #5 Stylish Angel (score 48.5) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 3 → 6 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace FAST, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #3 Willbeking: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #6 Villicon: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #5 Stylish Angel: barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 3 | Willbeking | 58.1 | 0.3688 | 0.7191 | distance, track_distance, barrier, weigh | +| 2 | 6 | Villicon | 49.8 | 0.1846 | 0.8035 | barrier, weight, pace, form, jockey | +| 3 | 5 | Stylish Angel | 48.5 | 0.1657 | 0.8804 | barrier, jockey, weight, pace, form | +| 4 | 7 | Barrythebarbaric | 40.4 | 0.0844 | 0.9434 | barrier, weight, pace, jockey, form, cla | +| 5 | 1 | Nythe | 39.3 | 0.077 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, track_distance, j | +| 6 | 4 | Mishpat | 36.9 | 0.063 | 1.0 | barrier, weight, pace, form, condition, | + +--- + +### Roma — Race 3 — Grulke Concrete BM60 Handicap +1640m | Good | BM60 | Start 2026-08-15T05:09:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #4 Thirteenth Man (score 59.6) +🥈 #2 Shoalwater Bay (score 48.6) +🥉 #7 Hi Frank (score 45.6) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 4 → 2 → 7 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 71/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #4 Thirteenth Man: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 97/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #2 Shoalwater Bay: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #7 Hi Frank: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 4 | Thirteenth Man | 59.6 | 0.3684 | 0.6304 | track, form, barrier, jockey, weight, pa | +| 2 | 2 | Shoalwater Bay | 48.6 | 0.1473 | 0.7066 | barrier, weight, jockey, form, pace, con | +| 3 | 7 | Hi Frank | 45.6 | 0.1147 | 0.7829 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, form, con | +| 4 | 1 | Lip Sip Suk | 40.7 | 0.0763 | 0.856 | weight, barrier, track, distance, track_ | +| 5 | 5 | Al Ash Lad | 40.7 | 0.0763 | 0.908 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 6 | 6 | Bugden | 40.2 | 0.0731 | 0.9574 | barrier, track, weight, distance, track_ | + +--- + +### Roma — Race 4 — Crawfos Tyres 0 - 50 Handicap +1000m | Good | BM0-50 | Start 2026-08-15T05:47:00Z | 10 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Jigadee (score 62.5) +🥈 #4 Quarter Red (score 47.0) +🥉 #6 Pontoon Prince (score 40.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 4 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 75/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Jigadee: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 83/100) +- #4 Quarter Red: form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Pontoon Prince: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 55/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Jigadee | 62.5 | 0.4849 | 0.6938 | track, barrier, form, weight, pace, jock | +| 2 | 4 | Quarter Red | 47.0 | 0.1333 | 0.7522 | jockey, barrier, weight, distance, pace, | +| 3 | 6 | Pontoon Prince | 40.2 | 0.0756 | 0.8101 | barrier, weight, form, pace, jockey, fit | +| 4 | 7 | Savvy Song | 37.1 | 0.0584 | 0.8626 | barrier, weight, track, track_distance, | +| 5 | 8 | Sir Occy | 37.0 | 0.0579 | 0.8989 | weight, track, distance, track_distance, | +| 6 | 10 | Sweet About Me | 35.8 | 0.0524 | 0.9337 | weight, barrier, distance, track, pace, | + +--- + +### Roma — Race 5 — Roma Sands Class 2 Handicap +1200m | Good | CL2 | Start 2026-08-15T06:21:00Z | 9 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Ivory Frost (score 59.0) +🥈 #1 Revantas (score 53.6) +🥉 #5 Titahi Bay (score 45.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 1 → 5 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Ivory Frost: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 87/100); form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #1 Revantas: track-specific record; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #5 Titahi Bay: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; track-condition suitability + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Ivory Frost | 59.0 | 0.352 | 0.6879 | track, form, jockey, barrier, weight, pa | +| 2 | 1 | Revantas | 53.6 | 0.2244 | 0.7725 | track, weight, barrier, form, condition, | +| 3 | 5 | Titahi Bay | 45.2 | 0.1114 | 0.8332 | barrier, weight, condition, pace, form, | +| 4 | 2 | Talma I Love Her | 41.9 | 0.0847 | 0.8804 | weight, jockey, barrier, pace, condition | +| 5 | 8 | Lady Dutton | 37.9 | 0.0607 | 0.9232 | form, weight, barrier, track, pace, jock | +| 6 | 9 | Dun With Roses | 34.9 | 0.0472 | 0.9638 | barrier, jockey, weight, track_distance, | + +--- + +### Roma — Race 6 — Andersens Carpets BM70 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 1 — Midway Handicap +1500m | Good 4 | 3YO+ BM72 | Start 2026-08-15T01:35:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Jonson (score 57.8) +🥈 #1 Cuban Cigar (score 48.5) +🥉 #5 Attractiveness (score 48.3) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 1 → 5 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Jonson: recent form quality (score 97/100); form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #1 Cuban Cigar: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #5 Attractiveness: recent form quality (score 73/100); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Jonson | 57.8 | 0.2618 | 0.501 | form, jockey, barrier, weight, pace, con | +| 2 | 1 | Cuban Cigar | 48.5 | 0.1206 | 0.564 | barrier, form, weight, condition, pace, | +| 3 | 5 | Attractiveness | 48.3 | 0.1186 | 0.6229 | form, weight, barrier, pace, jockey, tra | +| 4 | 15 | Prefer Diamonds | 40.7 | 0.063 | 0.6794 | distance, condition, barrier, pace, weig | +| 5 | 8 | So Rebellious | 39.9 | 0.0589 | 0.7355 | barrier, weight, form, pace, condition, | +| 6 | 10 | Kosuke | 39.4 | 0.0565 | 0.7829 | distance, barrier, weight, jockey, pace, | + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 2 — Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines Handicap +1300m | Good 4 | 3YO BM72 | Start 2026-08-15T02:10:00Z | 8 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #7 Savvy Diamond (score 59.2) +🥈 #2 Thrill Hunter (score 52.6) +🥉 #4 Letters Patent (score 52.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 7 → 2 → 4 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #7 Savvy Diamond: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 95/100); race-shape / speed-map adjustment +- #2 Thrill Hunter: track-condition suitability; first-up / second-up strike rate; barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #4 Letters Patent: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 59/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 7 | Savvy Diamond | 59.2 | 0.2861 | 0.6134 | barrier, form, pace, weight, class | +| 2 | 2 | Thrill Hunter | 52.6 | 0.165 | 0.7441 | condition, fitness, barrier, weight, pac | +| 3 | 4 | Letters Patent | 52.4 | 0.1623 | 0.8254 | condition, barrier, form, weight, jockey | +| 4 | 8 | Watch Me Tango | 49.8 | 0.1307 | 0.9015 | form, barrier, pace, weight, class | +| 5 | 5 | Sandbi | 44.1 | 0.0813 | 0.9583 | fitness, barrier, form, pace, weight, jo | +| 6 | 3 | Steel Will | 43.3 | 0.076 | 1.0 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 3 — Tab Highway Handicap +1300m | Good 4 | 3YO+ CL3 | Start 2026-08-15T02:45:00Z | 20 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Midnight Moose (score 62.1) +🥈 #9 Indi Springs (score 51.6) +🥉 #4 King Of Dragons (score 51.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 9 → 4 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 70/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Midnight Moose: track-condition suitability; barrier suitability for the expected pace; form consistency (low variance = reliable) +- #9 Indi Springs: track-specific record; form consistency (low variance = reliable); recent form quality (score 77/100) +- #4 King Of Dragons: historical distance performance; recent form quality (score 72/100); weight handling relative to the field + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Midnight Moose | 62.1 | 0.1954 | 0.3569 | condition, barrier, jockey, form, fitnes | +| 2 | 9 | Indi Springs | 51.6 | 0.0814 | 0.4214 | track, jockey, form, condition, weight, | +| 3 | 4 | King Of Dragons | 51.4 | 0.0801 | 0.4848 | distance, form, weight, pace, jockey, co | +| 4 | 19 | Lyon | 48.8 | 0.0645 | 0.5437 | form, barrier, condition, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 14 | Valedor | 48.6 | 0.0634 | 0.602 | barrier, form, fitness, weight, pace, jo | +| 6 | 17 | Zousanity | 47.7 | 0.0588 | 0.6594 | form, jockey, pace, condition, barrier, | + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 4 — Schweppes Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 5 — Petaluma Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 6 — Proven Thoroughbreds Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 7 — Asahi Super Dry Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 8 — Tab Rosebud +1100m | Good 4 | 3YO Qlty LR | Start 2026-08-15T05:45:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Castillo King (score 66.6) +🥈 #11 Hostwin King (score 60.5) +🥉 #9 Eviction Notice (score 60.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 11 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Castillo King: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; first-up / second-up strike rate +- #11 Hostwin King: form consistency (low variance = reliable); first-up / second-up strike rate; recent form quality (score 95/100) +- #9 Eviction Notice: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Castillo King | 66.6 | 0.2004 | 0.4385 | distance, condition, fitness, form, barr | +| 2 | 11 | Hostwin King | 60.5 | 0.1205 | 0.5494 | jockey, fitness, form, barrier, pace, we | +| 3 | 9 | Eviction Notice | 60.2 | 0.1176 | 0.6489 | distance, track, track_distance, conditi | +| 4 | 17 | Suasion | 59.5 | 0.1109 | 0.7239 | fitness, barrier, form, jockey, weight, | +| 5 | 18 | Write Me A Letter | 58.2 | 0.0995 | 0.769 | barrier, form, jockey, fitness, weight, | +| 6 | 3 | Central Europe | 54.8 | 0.075 | 0.8133 | track, condition, jockey, barrier, weigh | + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 9 — Racing And Sports Handicap +1400m | Good 4 | 3YO+ OPEN | Start 2026-08-15T06:20:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #12 Rolling Magic (score 55.7) +🥈 #6 Franz Josef (score 51.7) +🥉 #3 Fully Lit (score 43.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 12 → 6 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #12 Rolling Magic: track + distance combo record; track-specific record; historical distance performance +- #6 Franz Josef: historical distance performance; form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #3 Fully Lit: track-condition suitability; form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 12 | Rolling Magic | 55.7 | 0.2394 | 0.4989 | track_distance, track, distance, barrier | +| 2 | 6 | Franz Josef | 51.7 | 0.1715 | 0.5773 | distance, jockey, barrier, track, condit | +| 3 | 3 | Fully Lit | 43.7 | 0.0881 | 0.6494 | condition, jockey, barrier, weight, dist | +| 4 | 2 | Piggyback | 42.3 | 0.0784 | 0.7079 | barrier, track, weight, pace, condition, | +| 5 | 10 | Sir Artie | 41.3 | 0.0721 | 0.7631 | barrier, form, track_distance, condition | +| 6 | 7 | Mickey's Medal | 38.8 | 0.0585 | 0.8161 | barrier, jockey, pace, weight, track, fo | + +--- + +### Rosehill — Race 10 — Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap +1400m | Good 4 | 3YO+ BM78 CG | Start 2026-08-15T06:55:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #10 Tarzing (score 63.0) +🥈 #8 Silvanito (score 56.9) +🥉 #9 Steel Strike (score 53.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 10 → 8 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 36/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #10 Tarzing: historical distance performance; track + distance combo record; track-condition suitability +- #8 Silvanito: track + distance combo record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record +- #9 Steel Strike: historical distance performance; track-condition suitability; recent form quality (score 69/100) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 10 | Tarzing | 63.0 | 0.278 | 0.568 | distance, track_distance, condition, bar | +| 2 | 8 | Silvanito | 56.9 | 0.1672 | 0.6629 | track_distance, barrier, track, form, we | +| 3 | 9 | Steel Strike | 53.2 | 0.1228 | 0.7124 | distance, condition, form, barrier, weig | +| 4 | 4 | Mr Verse | 50.1 | 0.0949 | 0.7558 | track, barrier, weight, condition, pace, | +| 5 | 3 | Berkshire Shadow | 42.3 | 0.0495 | 0.7963 | jockey, barrier, weight, pace, condition | +| 6 | 13 | Engine Room | 40.7 | 0.0433 | 0.8349 | distance, condition, barrier, weight, pa | + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 1 — Ag Rigging F&M BM55 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 2 — Jls Builders Cg&E BM55 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 3 — Qa Chambers BM55 Handicap +1890m | Good 4 | BM55 | Start 2026-08-15T08:32:00Z | 12 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Good Philly (score 53.8) +🥈 #6 Mini Boo (score 48.4) +🥉 #2 I Drove All Night (score 48.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 6 → 2 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace MODERATE, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Good Philly: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #6 Mini Boo: track-specific record; barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field +- #2 I Drove All Night: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Good Philly | 53.8 | 0.2032 | 0.4602 | barrier, form, weight, track, pace, jock | +| 2 | 6 | Mini Boo | 48.4 | 0.1296 | 0.5663 | track, barrier, weight, form, pace, cond | +| 3 | 2 | I Drove All Night | 48.2 | 0.1274 | 0.6538 | barrier, weight, jockey, form, distance, | +| 4 | 8 | Proclaimer | 46.0 | 0.1061 | 0.7351 | barrier, distance, track_distance, weigh | +| 5 | 5 | The Cops | 43.7 | 0.0876 | 0.7887 | barrier, weight, form, track, pace, jock | +| 6 | 7 | Shedrivesabentley | 42.8 | 0.0812 | 0.84 | barrier, track, weight, jockey, pace, co | + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 4 — Super Rooster Qtis 3Yo Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 5 — Rdo Equipment John Deere Maiden Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 6 — Empire Of Japan BM70 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Toowoomba — Race 7 — Happy 70Th Graham Healy BM65 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 1 — The Bentley Group Maiden Plate +1000m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ MDN | Start 2026-08-15T03:16:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Hello Mistress (score 53.8) +🥈 #4 Azzurri Queen (score 48.7) +🥉 #9 Social Pages (score 47.1) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 4 → 9 +**Confidence:** LOW — 35/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 0.97) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Hello Mistress: historical distance performance; barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 66/100) +- #4 Azzurri Queen: form consistency (low variance = reliable); recent form quality (score 76/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #9 Social Pages: form consistency (low variance = reliable); weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Hello Mistress | 53.8 | 0.1821 | 0.4054 | distance, barrier, form, weight, jockey, | +| 2 | 4 | Azzurri Queen | 48.7 | 0.1191 | 0.4832 | jockey, form, weight, pace, barrier, con | +| 3 | 9 | Social Pages | 47.1 | 0.1042 | 0.5579 | jockey, weight, barrier, pace, form | +| 4 | 6 | Larza City | 43.6 | 0.0778 | 0.6295 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 5 | 2 | Star Rotation | 43.1 | 0.0747 | 0.6994 | barrier, weight, pace, form | +| 6 | 14 | Sorcha | 42.6 | 0.0716 | 0.752 | barrier, weight, jockey, pace, form | + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 2 — Marong Family Hotel Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 3 — Emmetts Maiden Plate +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 4 — Warrack Butchery 0 - 56 Handicap +**Skipped:** None + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 5 — Gts Plumbing BM56 Handicap +2000m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ BM56 | Start 2026-08-15T05:41:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #1 Ahab (score 60.9) +🥈 #13 The Stock Route (score 56.7) +🥉 #3 Durham (score 52.7) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 1 → 13 → 3 +**Confidence:** LOW — 34/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #1 Ahab: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 87/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #13 The Stock Route: historical distance performance; track-specific record; track + distance combo record +- #3 Durham: historical distance performance; weight handling relative to the field; barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 1 | Ahab | 60.9 | 0.2283 | 0.5044 | track, form, weight, jockey, barrier, pa | +| 2 | 13 | The Stock Route | 56.7 | 0.1609 | 0.6062 | distance, track, track_distance, barrier | +| 3 | 3 | Durham | 52.7 | 0.1153 | 0.6937 | distance, weight, barrier, form, jockey, | +| 4 | 4 | Mangione | 51.2 | 0.1017 | 0.7496 | track, track_distance, weight, barrier, | +| 5 | 2 | Mickio | 49.4 | 0.0876 | 0.7886 | distance, track, weight, barrier, pace, | +| 6 | 11 | Pendante | 44.0 | 0.0558 | 0.8222 | distance, barrier, weight, track, pace, | + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 6 — Betdeluxe 0 - 56 Handicap +1200m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ BM0-56 | Start 2026-08-15T06:15:00Z | 18 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #6 Tuxedo Miss (score 50.2) +🥈 #13 Ain't Tellin (score 41.4) +🥉 #10 Adki (score 41.2) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 6 → 13 → 10 +**Confidence:** LOW — 38/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #6 Tuxedo Miss: track-specific record; recent form quality (score 80/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #13 Ain't Tellin: historical distance performance; form consistency (low variance = reliable); barrier suitability for the expected pace +- #10 Adki: barrier suitability for the expected pace; track-specific record; form consistency (low variance = reliable) + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 6 | Tuxedo Miss | 50.2 | 0.178 | 0.3475 | track, form, weight, pace, jockey, dista | +| 2 | 13 | Ain't Tellin | 41.4 | 0.0855 | 0.4083 | distance, jockey, barrier, weight, pace, | +| 3 | 10 | Adki | 41.2 | 0.0841 | 0.467 | barrier, track, jockey, distance, weight | +| 4 | 11 | Artpark | 37.3 | 0.0607 | 0.5248 | barrier, distance, jockey, weight, pace, | +| 5 | 16 | Grumpyoldcol | 36.9 | 0.0588 | 0.5821 | weight, pace, jockey, form | +| 6 | 3 | Sunday Fun Day | 36.7 | 0.0578 | 0.6371 | weight, form, pace, jockey, barrier, dis | + +--- + +### Warracknabeal — Race 7 — Taylors Palace Hotel 0 - 56 Handicap +1000m | Soft 7 | 3YO+ BM0-56 | Start 2026-08-15T06:51:00Z | 15 runners + +**Prediction** +🥇 #5 Just Like Lisa (score 48.4) +🥈 #4 Nankeen (score 38.9) +🥉 #6 Shooting For Stars (score 37.4) + +**Primary Trifecta:** 5 → 4 → 6 +**Confidence:** MEDIUM — 69/100 (pace SLOW, completeness 1.0) + +**Key Factors (top selections)** +- #5 Just Like Lisa: barrier suitability for the expected pace; recent form quality (score 72/100); weight handling relative to the field +- #4 Nankeen: barrier suitability for the expected pace; weight handling relative to the field; historical distance performance +- #6 Shooting For Stars: weight handling relative to the field; recent form quality (score 59/100); barrier suitability for the expected pace + +| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors | +| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- | +| 1 | 5 | Just Like Lisa | 48.4 | 0.2361 | 0.4374 | barrier, form, weight, pace, jockey, con | +| 2 | 4 | Nankeen | 38.9 | 0.107 | 0.531 | barrier, weight, distance, form, pace, j | +| 3 | 6 | Shooting For Stars | 37.4 | 0.0944 | 0.5864 | weight, form, barrier, pace, condition, | +| 4 | 7 | Two Kay Klick | 37.3 | 0.0936 | 0.6413 | barrier, jockey, weight, distance, pace, | +| 5 | 9 | Simply Luscious | 31.0 | 0.0554 | 0.6958 | barrier, weight, pace, form, distance, c | +| 6 | 16 | Ask For More | 30.9 | 0.0549 | 0.7467 | barrier, weight, pace, form, track, cond | diff --git a/data/results/2026-08-07_11-13.json b/data/results/2026-08-07_11-13.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3fe566525fadcba99ce8878e1ebdb396eb66dde --- /dev/null +++ b/data/results/2026-08-07_11-13.json @@ -0,0 +1,8562 @@ +{ + "2026-08-07": { + 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"places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "slow": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + } + }, + "firstUp": { + "starts": 2, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "secondUp": { + "starts": 2, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + } + } + }, + { + "number": 14, + "name": "Harbour Chill", + "barrier": 6, + "weight": 56.5, + "jockey": "Ms Nikki Olzard", + "trainer": "Maree Skillington", + "form": "9X1", + "career_prize": "$7240.00", + "age": 4, + "sex": "Gelding", + "sire": "Merchant Navy", + "stats_available": true, + "stats": { + "overall": { + "starts": 2, + "wins": 1, + "places": 1, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.5, + "placePercent": 0.5 + }, + "track": { + "starts": 1, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "conditions": { + "good": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "soft": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "heavy": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "firm": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "synthetic": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "fast": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + }, + "slow": { + "starts": 0, + "wins": 0, + "places": 0, + "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, + "placePercent": 0.0 + } + } + } + } + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/results/aug13_wellington.json b/data/results/aug13_wellington.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7362de8b0fb9239ab91c76a7c3df56ddcc12e2e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/results/aug13_wellington.json @@ -0,0 +1,92 @@ +{ + "date": "2026-08-13", + "track": "Wellington", + "slug": "wellington", + "condition": "?", + "races": [ + { + "race": 1, + "name": "Kfc Wellington Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1600m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "MDN", + "prize_money": "27000", + "number_of_runners": 10, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T02:55:00Z", + "runners": [] + }, + { + "race": 2, + "name": "Allendale Merino Stud BM66 Handicap", + "distance": "1600m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "BM66", + "prize_money": "27000", + "number_of_runners": 8, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T03:35:00Z", + "runners": [] + }, + { + "race": 3, + "name": "Peter Milling And Company Maiden", + "distance": "1100m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "MDN", + "prize_money": "30000", + "number_of_runners": 9, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T04:10:00Z", + "runners": [] + }, + { + "race": 4, + "name": "Wellington Soldiers Memorial Club Maiden", + "distance": "900m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "MDN", + "prize_money": "27000", + "number_of_runners": 11, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T04:45:00Z", + "runners": [] + }, + { + "race": 5, + "name": "Redfern Heavy Diesel Class 3 BM66", + "distance": "1000m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "CL3", + "prize_money": "27000", + "number_of_runners": 11, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T05:25:00Z", + "runners": [] + }, + { + "race": 6, + "name": "J.R Richards & Sons BM58 Handicap", + "distance": "1400m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "BM58", + "prize_money": "30000", + "number_of_runners": 13, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T06:05:00Z", + "runners": [] + }, + { + "race": 7, + "name": "Lss Locksmith And Security Class 1", + "distance": "1100m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "race_class": "CL1", + "prize_money": "27000", + "number_of_runners": 13, + "abandoned": true, + "start_time": "2026-08-13T06:40:00Z", + "runners": [] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/deep_analysis.py b/deep_analysis.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f1a235ebb4e6097d5001f1a3fcbc08d5002f7824 --- /dev/null +++ b/deep_analysis.py @@ -0,0 +1,276 @@ +"""Final optimization — full grid search and per-date analysis.""" +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' + + +def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def load_results(date: str) -> dict: + result_lookup = {} + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return result_lookup + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + + return result_lookup + + +def score_race(race_data: dict, weights: dict) -> list[int] | None: + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append((r.number, sc['score'])) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]] + except: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + return stats + + +def evaluate_all(dates: list[str], weights: dict) -> dict: + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights) + agg["total"] += stats["total"] + agg["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg["exact"] += stats["exact"] + agg["box"] += stats["box"] + agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0 + return agg + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + # Best weights from first pass + best = { + "form": 0.20, "class": 0.13, "distance": 0.08, "track": 0.08, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.07, "jockey": 0.08, + "fitness": 0.05, "barrier": 0.13, "weight": 0.05, "pace": 0.04, + } + + print("=" * 60) + print("OPTIMIZED WEIGHTS — PER DATE BREAKDOWN") + print("=" * 60) + + total_races = 0 + total_top1 = 0 + + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, best) + if stats['total'] > 0: + total_races += stats['total'] + total_top1 += stats['top1'] + print(f"\n{date}: {stats['total']} races, {stats['top1']} top1 ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.1f}%)") + + # Show individual races + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + for race_data in sorted(races, key=lambda x: (x.get('track', ''), x.get('raceNumber', 0))): + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, best) + if not pred: + continue + + status = "EXACT!" if pred == actual else ("TOP1!" if pred[0] == actual[0] else "") + if status: + print(f" {track} R{race_num}: Pred {'→'.join(str(x) for x in pred)} | Actual {'→'.join(str(x) for x in actual)} {status}") + + print(f"\n{'='*60}") + print(f"TOTAL: {total_top1}/{total_races} ({total_top1/total_races*100:.1f}%)") + print(f"{'='*60}") + + # Now try to optimize for Aug 14 specifically to understand what's different + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("AUG 14 DEEP DIVE") + print("=" * 60) + + # Load Aug 14 results + result_lookup = load_results("2026-08-14") + races = load_cached_races("2026-08-14") + + # For each race, show what the model missed + for race_data in sorted(races, key=lambda x: (x.get('track', ''), x.get('raceNumber', 0))): + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, best) + if not pred: + continue + + # Show top 3 picks vs actual + print(f"\n{track} R{race_num}:") + print(f" Actual: {'→'.join(str(x) for x in actual)}") + print(f" Predicted: {'→'.join(str(x) for x in pred)}") + + # Show ranked runners + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + race = RaceModel( + date='2026-08-14', track=track, + track_slug=track.lower(), + race_number=race_num, + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, best) + scored.append({ + 'no': r.number, 'name': r.name, 'score': sc['score'], + 'barrier': r.barrier, 'weight': r.weight, 'form': r.form, + 'win_pct': r.win_percent, 'place_pct': r.place_percent, + }) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x['score'], reverse=True) + + print(f" Ranked:") + for i, s in enumerate(scored[:6]): + marker = " <-- WINNER" if s['no'] == actual[0] else "" + print(f" {i+1}. #{s['no']} {s['name'][:20]:<20} score={s['score']:.1f} b={s['barrier']} w={s['weight']} form={s['form']} win={s['win_pct']*100:.0f}%{marker}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/deploy.py b/deploy.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b8f4eacddb682f51978640bec8a0870aa11a2fdb --- /dev/null +++ b/deploy.py @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Deploy Trifecta-Bro HF Space.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +from pathlib import Path + +from huggingface_hub import HfApi, upload_folder + + +SPACE_ID = "Brettapps/trifecta-bro" +LOCAL_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[0] + + +def deploy() -> None: + token = os.environ.get("HF_ACCESS_TOKEN") or os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN") + if not token: + raise EnvironmentError("HF_ACCESS_TOKEN/HF_TOKEN is required") + + api = HfApi(token=token) + print(f"Deploying {LOCAL_DIR} -> {SPACE_ID}") + upload_folder( + folder_path=str(LOCAL_DIR), + repo_id=SPACE_ID, + repo_type="space", + commit_message="Update Trifecta-Bro booklet", + token=token, + ) + print("Upload complete") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + deploy() diff --git a/free_image_gen.py b/free_image_gen.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f9811c71761748730aa1110a02b09586fec1372c --- /dev/null +++ b/free_image_gen.py @@ -0,0 +1,236 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +""" +Free Image Generation Tool +Uses Hugging Face Free Inference API (no auth required for public models) +to generate images via CLI. Falls back to Pollinations.ai if HF fails. +""" + +import argparse +import hashlib +import json +import os +import sys +import urllib.request +import urllib.parse +import urllib.error +from pathlib import Path + + +# Hugging Face free inference endpoint (public models, no auth needed) +HF_INFERENCE_URL = "https://api-inference.huggingface.co/models/stabilityai/stable-diffusion-xl-base-1.0" + + +def generate_image_hf(prompt: str, output_dir: str = None) -> dict: + """ + Generate image using Hugging Face Inference API (free tier). + Uses stabilityai/stable-diffusion-xl-base-1.0 model. + """ + if output_dir is None: + output_dir = os.getcwd() + + output_path = Path(output_dir) + output_path.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + prompt_hash = hashlib.md5(prompt.encode()).hexdigest()[:8] + filename = f"hf_{prompt_hash}.png" + file_path = output_path / filename + + # Hugging Face expects JSON payload + payload = json.dumps({ + "inputs": prompt, + "parameters": { + "negative_prompt": "blurry, low quality, distorted", + "guidance_scale": 7.5, + "num_inference_steps": 30 + } + }).encode('utf-8') + + req = urllib.request.Request( + HF_INFERENCE_URL, + data=payload, + headers={ + "Content-Type": "application/json", + "Authorization": "Bearer hf_", # Empty token for public models + "x-wait-for-model": "true" # Wait for model to load if cold + } + ) + + try: + with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=300) as response: + if response.status != 200: + raise Exception(f"API returned status {response.status}") + + # HF returns image binary data + image_data = response.read() + + if len(image_data) < 100: + raise Exception("Response too small - likely error") + + with open(file_path, 'wb') as f: + f.write(image_data) + + file_size = file_path.stat().st_size + + return { + "file_path": str(file_path.absolute()), + "model": "stabilityai/stable-diffusion-xl-base-1.0", + "prompt": prompt, + "file_size_bytes": file_size, + "provider": "huggingface" + } + + except urllib.error.HTTPError as e: + if e.code == 401: + raise Exception("Hugging Face API requires authentication for this model") + elif e.code == 503: + raise Exception("Model is loading - try again in a moment") + raise Exception(f"HTTP error {e.code}: {e.reason}") + except urllib.error.URLError as e: + raise Exception(f"Network error: {e.reason}") + except Exception as e: + raise Exception(f"HF generation failed: {str(e)}") + + +def generate_image_pollinations(prompt: str, width: int = 1024, height: int = 1024, + output_dir: str = None) -> dict: + """ + Generate image using Pollinations.ai free API. + """ + if output_dir is None: + output_dir = os.getcwd() + + output_path = Path(output_dir) + output_path.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + prompt_hash = hashlib.md5(prompt.encode()).hexdigest()[:8] + filename = f"pollinations_{prompt_hash}.png" + file_path = output_path / filename + + # Build URL - Pollinations expects prompt in URL path + encoded_prompt = urllib.parse.quote(prompt) + api_url = f"https://image.pollinations.ai/prompt/{encoded_prompt}" + + # Add query params + params = urllib.parse.urlencode({ + "width": width, + "height": height, + "nologo": "true", + "nofeed": "true", + "seed": "random" + }) + api_url = f"{api_url}?{params}" + + try: + req = urllib.request.Request(api_url) + req.add_header('User-Agent', 'FreeImageGen/1.0') + + with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=60) as response: + if response.status != 200: + raise Exception(f"API returned status {response.status}") + + image_data = response.read() + + if len(image_data) < 100: + raise Exception("Response too small") + + # Check if it's actually an image (PNG starts with PNG signature) + if image_data[:8] != b'\x89PNG\r\n\x1a\n': + # Might be JSON error + try: + error = json.loads(image_data.decode('utf-8')) + raise Exception(f"API error: {error.get('error', 'Unknown')}") + except: + raise Exception("Response is not a valid image") + + with open(file_path, 'wb') as f: + f.write(image_data) + + file_size = file_path.stat().st_size + + return { + "file_path": str(file_path.absolute()), + "model": "pollinations.ai", + "prompt": prompt, + "width": width, + "height": height, + "file_size_bytes": file_size, + "provider": "pollinations" + } + + except urllib.error.HTTPError as e: + raise Exception(f"HTTP error {e.code}: {e.reason}") + except urllib.error.URLError as e: + raise Exception(f"Network error: {e.reason}") + except Exception as e: + raise Exception(f"Pollinations generation failed: {str(e)}") + + +def generate_image(prompt: str, width: int = 1024, height: int = 1024, + output_dir: str = None, prefer: str = "hf") -> dict: + """ + Generate an image using free APIs. + + Tries Hugging Face first (higher quality), then falls back to Pollinations. + + Args: + prompt: The image generation prompt + width: Image width (for Pollinations fallback) + height: Image height (for Pollinations fallback) + output_dir: Directory to save the image + prefer: "hf" or "pollinations" + + Returns: + JSON dict with file_path, model, and prompt + """ + if prefer == "pollinations": + return generate_image_pollinations(prompt, width, height, output_dir) + + # Try Hugging Face first + try: + result = generate_image_hf(prompt, output_dir) + print(f"# Using Hugging Face: stabilityai/stable-diffusion-xl-base-1.0", file=sys.stderr) + return result + except Exception as e: + print(f"# HF failed: {e}. Falling back to Pollinations...", file=sys.stderr) + + # Fall back to Pollinations + try: + result = generate_image_pollinations(prompt, width, height, output_dir) + print(f"# Using Pollinations.ai", file=sys.stderr) + return result + except Exception as e: + raise Exception(f"All free APIs failed: {str(e)}") + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser( + description="Generate images using free APIs (Hugging Face or Pollinations.ai)" + ) + + parser.add_argument("--prompt", type=str, required=True, help="Image generation prompt") + parser.add_argument("--width", type=int, default=1024, help="Image width (Pollinations)") + parser.add_argument("--height", type=int, default=1024, help="Image height (Pollinations)") + parser.add_argument("--output_dir", type=str, default=None, help="Output directory") + parser.add_argument("--prefer", type=str, choices=["hf", "pollinations"], + default="hf", help="Preferred API: hf (default) or pollinations") + + args = parser.parse_args() + + try: + result = generate_image( + prompt=args.prompt, + width=args.width, + height=args.height, + output_dir=args.output_dir, + prefer=args.prefer + ) + + print(json.dumps(result, indent=2)) + + except Exception as e: + print(json.dumps({"error": str(e), "provider": "none"}, indent=2)) + sys.exit(1) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/generate_form_guides.py b/generate_form_guides.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..572a1dff0499f7994f73c4e6188a9bf3e9d87324 --- /dev/null +++ b/generate_form_guides.py @@ -0,0 +1,324 @@ +"""Generate comprehensive form guide for all horses racing today.""" +import json +from pathlib import Path +from collections import defaultdict +from datetime import datetime + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' +REPORTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'reports' + +VAULT_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/Documents/Obsidian Vault') +DATABANK_DIR = VAULT_DIR / 'Horse Form Databank' +FORM_GUIDES_DIR = DATABANK_DIR / 'Form-Guides' + + +def ensure_dirs(): + FORM_GUIDES_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + +def load_all_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date and 'track' in data: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def parse_num(s): + return int(str(s).replace('e', '').replace('E', '')) + + +def generate_horse_form_guide(horse: dict) -> str: + """Generate comprehensive form guide for a single horse.""" + name = horse.get('name', 'Unknown') + number = horse.get('number', 0) + barrier = horse.get('barrier', 0) + weight = horse.get('weight', 0) + age = horse.get('age', 0) + sex = horse.get('sex', '') + sire = horse.get('sire', '') + dam = horse.get('dam', '') + jockey = horse.get('jockey', '') + trainer = horse.get('trainer', '') + form = horse.get('form', '') + last20 = horse.get('last20_starts', '') + career_prize = horse.get('career_prize_money', '$0') + + stats = horse.get('stats', {}) + overall = stats.get('overall', {}) + track = stats.get('track', {}) + distance = stats.get('distance', {}) + track_dist = stats.get('trackDistance', {}) + condition = stats.get('condition', {}) + first_up = stats.get('firstUp', {}) + second_up = stats.get('secondUp', {}) + + # Get all condition stats + cond_stats = stats.get('conditions', {}) + + note = f"""# {name} + +## Race Details + +- **Number**: {number} +- **Barrier**: {barrier} +- **Weight**: {weight}kg +- **Jockey**: {jockey} +- **Trainer**: {trainer} +- **Age/Sex**: {age}yo {sex} +- **Sire**: {sire} +- **Dam**: {dam} +- **Career Prize**: {career_prize} + +## Career Statistics + +| Metric | Overall | Track | Distance | Track+Dist | Condition | +|--------|---------|-------|----------|------------|-----------| +| Starts | {overall.get('starts', 0)} | {track.get('starts', 0)} | {distance.get('starts', 0)} | {track_dist.get('starts', 0)} | {condition.get('starts', 0)} | +| Wins | {overall.get('wins', 0)} | {track.get('wins', 0)} | {distance.get('wins', 0)} | {track_dist.get('wins', 0)} | {condition.get('wins', 0)} | +| Places | {overall.get('places', 0)} | {track.get('places', 0)} | {distance.get('places', 0)} | {track_dist.get('places', 0)} | {condition.get('places', 0)} | +| Win % | {overall.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {track.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {distance.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {track_dist.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {condition.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | +| Place % | {overall.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {track.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {distance.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {track_dist.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {condition.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | + +## Fitness Profile + +| First-Up | Second-Up | +|----------|-----------| +| {first_up.get('starts', 0)} starts, {first_up.get('wins', 0)} wins ({first_up.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}%) | {second_up.get('starts', 0)} starts, {second_up.get('wins', 0)} wins ({second_up.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}%) | + +## Condition Performance + +| Condition | Starts | Wins | Win % | Place % | +|-----------|--------|------|-------|---------| +""" + + for cond_name, cond_data in sorted(cond_stats.items()): + if cond_data.get('starts', 0) > 0: + note += f"| {cond_name} | {cond_data.get('starts', 0)} | {cond_data.get('wins', 0)} | {cond_data.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {cond_data.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% |\n" + + note += f""" + +## Last 20 Starts + +``` +{last20} +``` + +## Form Analysis + +``` +{form} +``` + +### Form Key +- **1-3** = Finished in top 3 +- **4-9** = Finished 4th-9th +- **0** = Finished 10th or worse +- **x** = Spell (not raced recently) +- **f** = Fell +- **p** = Pulled up + +--- + +## Notes + +[Add your observations here] + +## Related Horses + +[Link to related horses: sire, dam, stablemates] +""" + + return note + + +def generate_race_form_guide(race_data: dict, horses: list[dict]) -> str: + """Generate comprehensive form guide for a race.""" + date = race_data.get('date', '') + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + race_name = race_data.get('raceName', '') + distance = race_data.get('distance', '') + condition = race_data.get('condition', '') + race_class = race_data.get('raceClass', '') + prize = race_data.get('prizeMoney', '') + start_time = race_data.get('startTime', '') + num_runners = race_data.get('numberOfRunners', 0) + + note = f"""# {track} Race {race_num} — {date} + +## Race Details + +- **Name**: {race_name} +- **Distance**: {distance} +- **Condition**: {condition} +- **Class**: {race_class} +- **Prize**: {prize} +- **Start**: {start_time} +- **Runners**: {num_runners} + +## Form Guide + +| # | Horse | Jockey | Wgt | Barrier | Form | Win% | Place% | Track Win% | Dist Win% | +|---|-------|--------|-----|---------|------|------|--------|------------|-----------| +""" + + for horse in horses: + stats = horse.get('stats', {}) + overall = stats.get('overall', {}) + track = stats.get('track', {}) + distance = stats.get('distance', {}) + + note += f"| {horse['number']} | [[{horse['name']}]] | {horse.get('jockey', '')} | {horse.get('weight', 0)}kg | {horse.get('barrier', 0)} | {horse.get('form', '')} | {overall.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {overall.get('placePercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {track.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% | {distance.get('winPercent', 0)*100:.1f}% |\n" + + note += """ + +## Result + +[Add official result here] + +## Analysis + +[Add race analysis here] +""" + + return note + + +def main(): + date = "2026-08-15" + print(f"Generating comprehensive form guides for {date}...") + print("=" * 60) + + ensure_dirs() + + # Load all cached races + races = load_all_cached_races(date) + print(f"Loaded {len(races)} races") + + total_horses = 0 + total_races = 0 + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + + # Extract horses + horses = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + + stats = r.get('stats', {}) + overall = stats.get('overall', {}) + track_stats = stats.get('track', {}) + distance = stats.get('distance', {}) + track_dist = stats.get('trackDistance', {}) + cond_stats = stats.get('conditions', {}) + first_up = stats.get('firstUp', {}) + second_up = stats.get('secondUp', {}) + + # Get condition-specific stats + cond_key = None + for key in cond_stats: + if cond_stats[key].get('starts', 0) > 0: + cond_key = key + break + cond_data = cond_stats.get(cond_key, {}) if cond_key else {} + + horse = { + 'number': r['number'], + 'name': r.get('name', 'Unknown'), + 'jockey': r.get('jockey', ''), + 'trainer': r.get('trainer', ''), + 'weight': r.get('weight', 0), + 'barrier': r.get('barrier', 0), + 'age': r.get('age', 0), + 'sex': r.get('sex', ''), + 'sire': r.get('sire', ''), + 'dam': r.get('dam', ''), + 'form': r.get('form', ''), + 'last20_starts': r.get('last20Starts', ''), + 'career_prize_money': r.get('careerPrizeMoney', '$0'), + 'stats': { + 'overall': { + 'starts': overall.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': overall.get('wins', 0), + 'places': overall.get('places', 0), + 'winPercent': overall.get('winPercent', 0), + 'placePercent': overall.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'track': { + 'starts': track_stats.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': track_stats.get('wins', 0), + 'winPercent': track_stats.get('winPercent', 0), + 'placePercent': track_stats.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'distance': { + 'starts': distance.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': distance.get('wins', 0), + 'winPercent': distance.get('winPercent', 0), + 'placePercent': distance.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'trackDistance': { + 'starts': track_dist.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': track_dist.get('wins', 0), + 'winPercent': track_dist.get('winPercent', 0), + 'placePercent': track_dist.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'condition': { + 'starts': cond_data.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': cond_data.get('wins', 0), + 'winPercent': cond_data.get('winPercent', 0), + 'placePercent': cond_data.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'firstUp': { + 'starts': first_up.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': first_up.get('wins', 0), + 'winPercent': first_up.get('winPercent', 0), + }, + 'secondUp': { + 'starts': second_up.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': second_up.get('wins', 0), + 'winPercent': second_up.get('winPercent', 0), + }, + 'conditions': cond_stats, + }, + } + horses.append(horse) + + if not horses: + continue + + # Generate race form guide + race_guide = generate_race_form_guide(race_data, horses) + race_file = FORM_GUIDES_DIR / f"{date}-{track}-R{race_num}.md" + with open(race_file, 'w') as f: + f.write(race_guide) + + total_races += 1 + total_horses += len(horses) + + # Generate individual horse form guides + for horse in horses: + horse_guide = generate_horse_form_guide(horse) + horse_file = FORM_GUIDES_DIR / f"{date}-{horse['name'].replace(' ', '-')}.md" + with open(horse_file, 'w') as f: + f.write(horse_guide) + + print(f"Generated {total_races} race form guides") + print(f"Generated {total_horses} horse form guides") + print(f"Saved to: {FORM_GUIDES_DIR}") + print("=" * 60) + print("Complete!") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/generate_predictions.py b/generate_predictions.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d92e5b5a9cfbcf8c09c2693c75576b11d315001 --- /dev/null +++ b/generate_predictions.py @@ -0,0 +1,142 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Generate trifecta predictions for all Australian Gallops races.""" +import json +from datetime import datetime + +# Load race forms +with open('all_race_forms.json', 'r') as f: + all_races = json.load(f) + +def score_runner(run, track_cond): + """Score a runner 0-100 based on trifecta model factors.""" + score = 0 + + # Current Form: 20% + form = run.get('form', '') + if form and form != '0': + # Prefer shorter recent form strings (better recent performance) + score += 8 if len(form) <= 3 else 5 + + # Speed Ratings: 15% (proxy via prize money and sire) + sire = run.get('sire', '').lower() + good_sires = ['snitzel', 'headwater', 'tagaloa', 'redoso', 'exceed_and_exceed', 'rulingly'] + if any(s in sire for s in good_sires): + score += 15 + else: + score += 8 + + # Class: 15% (based on raceClass and horse experience) + prize = run.get('careerPrizeMoney', '$0.00') + try: + prize_val = float(prize.replace('$', '').replace(',', '')) + if prize_val > 10000: + score += 15 + elif prize_val > 0: + score += 10 + else: + score += 5 + except: + score += 5 + + # Distance Suitability: 10% + stats = run.get('stats', {}) + dist_stats = stats.get('distance', {}) + wins = dist_stats.get('wins', 0) + starts = dist_stats.get('starts', 0) + if starts > 0 and wins > 0: + score += 10 + elif starts > 0: + score += 5 + + # Track Suitability: 8% + cond_stats = stats.get('synthetic', {}) if 'Synthetic' in track_cond else stats.get('heavy', {}) if 'Heavy' in track_cond else stats.get('soft', {}) + if cond_stats.get('wins', 0) > 0: + score += 8 + elif cond_stats.get('starts', 0) > 0: + score += 4 + + # Track Condition: 8% + if cond_stats.get('places', 0) > 0: + score += 8 + elif cond_stats.get('starts', 0) > 0: + score += 4 + + # Barrier: 5% + barrier = run.get('barrier', 8) + if barrier <= 3: + score += 5 + elif barrier <= 6: + score += 3 + + # Jockey: 5% (premium jockeys) + jockey = run.get('jockey', '').lower() + good_jockeys = ['michael dee', 'blake shinn', 'japan', 'jason collett', 'nash welles', 'nikki deeded', 'jimmy mcarthur'] + if any(j in jockey for j in good_jockeys): + score += 5 + elif any(j in jockey for j in ['ethan brown', 'fred kersley', 'luke nolen', 'jake noonan']): + score += 3 + + # Trainer: 5% + trainer = run.get('trainer', '').lower() + good_trainers = ['mick price', 'gai waterhouse', 'vernon smith', 'peter snowden', 'chris gaudement'] + if any(t in trainer for t in good_trainers): + score += 5 + elif any(t in trainer for t in ['mark walker', 'arthur pace', 'stephen v brown']): + score += 3 + + # Pace Map Advantage: 5% + # Early speed horses prefer speed-favouring tracks + age = run.get('age', 3) + if age == 3: + score += 5 # Young horses often fresh + else: + score += 3 + + return score + +results = [] +for race in all_races: + track = race.get('track', 'Unknown') + race_num = race.get('raceNumber', '?') + race_name = race.get('raceName', 'Unknown') + distance = race.get('distance', '?') + cond = race.get('condition', '') + + runners = race.get('runners', []) + non_scratched = [r for r in runners if not r.get('scratched', False)] + + scored = [] + for runner in non_scratched: + score = score_runner(runner, cond) + scored.append({ + 'number': runner.get('number'), + 'name': runner.get('name'), + 'score': score, + 'jockey': runner.get('jockey') + }) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x['score'], reverse=True) + + results.append({ + 'track': track, + 'race': race_num, + 'name': race_name, + 'distance': distance, + 'condition': cond, + 'predictions': scored[:4] # Top 4 + }) + +# Output summary +print("\n=== AUSTRALIAN GALLOPS TRIFECTA PREDICTIONS - TODAY ===\n") +for r in results: + preds = r['predictions'] + top3 = [f"{p['number']}-{p['name']}" for p in preds[:3]] + top4 = [f"{p['number']}-{p['name']}" for p in preds[:4]] + print(f"{r['track'].upper()} {r['race']} - {r['name']} ({r['distance']}, {r['condition']})") + print(f" Top 3: {' / '.join(top3)}") + print(f" Top 4: {' / '.join(top4)}") + print() + +# Save full results +with open('predictions.json', 'w') as f: + json.dump(results, f, indent=2) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/hf_config.yaml b/hf_config.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..44ec5396615f350f4cc43f7962aff3a6c1bda028 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_config.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +sdk: gradio +sdk_version: 5.x +python_version: 3.11 +files: + - app.py + - src/** + - requirements.txt + - data/** + - static/** +secrets: + - FORMFAV_API_KEY + - HF_ACCESS_TOKEN diff --git a/hf_model_repo/README.md b/hf_model_repo/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..fac6daa46e3bec238cf15053ce3bad2d647144cc --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,85 @@ +--- +title: Trifecta-Bro v1 — Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictor +emoji: 🐎 +colorFrom: green +colorTo: blue +sdk: "false" +tags: + - racing + - horse-racing + - australian-gallops + - trifecta + - prediction + - sports-betting +license: mit +library_name: other +--- + +# Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1 + +**Model id:** `Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1` +**Version:** 1.0.0 +**Task:** Australian Gallops **trifecta prediction** (pick the top-3 finishers, in order). + +Trifecta-Bro v1 is an open-source, multi-factor trifecta scorer for Australian +gallops. Given a race's field + form, it assigns each runner a 0–100 score and +emits a **primary**, **secondary**, and **value** trifecta combination, plus the +top-3 ranked runners with win/place probabilities. + +> **Status:** v1 is a deterministic rule-based scorer. No supervised training +> was performed because the project has no historical race **results** (labels) +> yet. v2 will train a gradient-boosted / logistic model on observed outcomes +> once `data/results/` is populated. + +## Method + +For each runner, a weighted 0–100 score is computed from: + +| Factor | Max weight | +|--------|-----------| +| Recent form (last 5 starts: 1/2/3 finishes) | 25 | +| Career overall win % | 20 | +| Career overall place % | 10 | +| Track strike rate (places/starts) | 10 | +| Distance strike rate | 8 | +| Condition strike rate (per going) | 8 | +| Barrier draw | 5 | +| Career prize money | 5 | + +The three highest-scoring runners form the **primary** trifecta. A **secondary** +and **value** combination are derived from the next-best runners (with an +outsider angle when a score > 30 exists further down the field). + +## Usage + +```python +# Install from the Hub +# pip install huggingface_hub +from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download +path = snapshot_download("Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1") +import sys; sys.path.insert(0, path) + +from trifecta_bro_v1 import TrifectaPredictor, race_from_payload + +payload = {...} # Trifecta-Bro race payload +race = race_from_payload(payload) +prediction = TrifectaPredictor().predict(race) +print(prediction["primary"], prediction["secondary"], prediction["value"]) +``` + +Or run the bundled CLI: + +```bash +python -m trifecta_bro_v1.main --data predictions-2026-08-10.json +``` + +## Artifact + +`model_artifacts/model_artifact.json` documents the model method, feature +weights, and version — making the published model interpretable and reproducible. + +## Backend note + +This model is also wired as the `Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1` identity in the +Trifecta-Bro LM Studio / Obsidian-vault backend. The HF-published code is the +canonical, dependency-light inference implementation. diff --git a/hf_model_repo/config.json b/hf_model_repo/config.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..69b30ee73fa9ca13831929c73772a2cc39c0241d --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/config.json @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +{ + "model_id": "Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1", + "version": "1.0.0", + "task": "trifecta-prediction", + "domain": "australian-gallops", + "method": "multi-factor-rule-based-scoring", + "library_name": "other", + "license": "mit", + "dependencies": [], + "inference_entrypoints": [ + "trifecta_bro_v1.predictor.TrifectaPredictor", + "trifecta_bro_v1.artifact.predict_race" + ], + "artifact": "model_artifacts/model_artifact.json" +} diff --git a/hf_model_repo/model_artifacts/model_artifact.json b/hf_model_repo/model_artifacts/model_artifact.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4cc567f529aea0aace0fe1b5288b389004e84c27 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/model_artifacts/model_artifact.json @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +{ + "model_id": "Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1", + "version": "1.0.0", + "method": "multi-factor rule-based scoring (0-100)", + "feature_weights": { + "recent_form": 25.0, + "overall_win_pct": 20.0, + "overall_place_pct": 10.0, + "track_strike": 10.0, + "distance_strike": 8.0, + "condition_strike": 8.0, + "barrier_draw": 5.0, + "career_prize": 5.0 + }, + "notes": "Open-source multi-factor trifecta scorer. No supervised training (no historical race results available in data/results/). Scores are deterministic given runner form/stat inputs. Future v2 will train a gradient-boosted model on observed outcomes." +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/hf_model_repo/push.py b/hf_model_repo/push.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e283a7508f23e9cd0d95f136014723e45e0d9db6 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/push.py @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Publish Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1 to the HuggingFace Hub. + +Requires a VALID HuggingFace token, supplied via: + - HF_ACCESS_TOKEN / HF_TOKEN env var, or + - the cached `huggingface_hub` credentials (hf auth login) + +This script ONLY uploads; it does not build the package (build is done via +save_artifact + the committed source files). Run after `hf auth login` succeeds. + +Usage: + python push.py # uses cached/ENV token + HF_ACCESS_TOKEN=hf_xxx python push.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +from huggingface_hub import HfApi, create_repo + +REPO_ID = "Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1" +REPO_TYPE = "model" +LOCAL_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[0] +ARTIFACT_DIR = LOCAL_DIR / "model_artifacts" + + +def main() -> int: + token = os.environ.get("HF_ACCESS_TOKEN") or os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN") + api = HfApi(token=token) + + # Fail fast with a clear message if the token is invalid/expired. + try: + me = api.whoami() + print(f"Authenticated as: {me.get('name') or me.get('id')}") + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 + print(f"ERROR: HuggingFace authentication failed: {exc}") + print("Fix: run `hf auth login` with a valid token, or set HF_ACCESS_TOKEN.") + return 1 + + # Ensure the repo exists under the authenticated namespace. + create_repo( + repo_id=REPO_ID, + repo_type=REPO_TYPE, + token=token, + exist_ok=True, + ) + + print(f"Uploading {LOCAL_DIR} -> {REPO_ID}") + api.upload_folder( + folder_path=str(LOCAL_DIR), + repo_id=REPO_ID, + repo_type=REPO_TYPE, + commit_message="Add Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1 v1.0.0 predictor", + token=token, + ) + print(f"DONE: https://huggingface.co/{REPO_ID}") + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/hf_model_repo/pyproject.toml b/hf_model_repo/pyproject.toml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1067483e69d55162baf4e9543327181bc23f4680 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/pyproject.toml @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +[build-system] +requires = ["setuptools>=61.0"] +build-backend = "setuptools.build_meta" + +[project] +name = "trifecta-bro-v1" +version = "1.0.0" +description = "Australian Gallops trifecta predictor (Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1)." +readme = "README.md" +license = { text = "MIT" } +requires-python = ">=3.9" +keywords = ["horse-racing", "trifecta", "australian-gallops", "prediction"] + +[tool.setuptools.packages.find] +where = ["."] +include = ["trifecta_bro_v1*"] diff --git a/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/__init__.py b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c1917eda692bf42017d00fe858991c7f749026c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +"""Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1 — Australian Gallops trifecta predictor (v1).""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from .artifact import ( + ARTIFACT, + MODEL_ID, + ModelArtifact, + load_artifact, + predict_race, + race_from_payload, + save_artifact, +) +from .predictor import Race, Runner, TrifectaPredictor + +__version__ = "1.0.0" + +__all__ = [ + "TrifectaPredictor", + "Race", + "Runner", + "MODEL_ID", + "ARTIFACT", + "ModelArtifact", + "save_artifact", + "load_artifact", + "predict_race", + "race_from_payload", + "__version__", +] diff --git a/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/artifact.py b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/artifact.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3b26d696f702e737ddbd4d625129815da0da6b65 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/artifact.py @@ -0,0 +1,102 @@ +"""Artifact save/load and model metadata for Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +from .predictor import Race, Runner, TrifectaPredictor + + +MODEL_ID = "Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1" +MODEL_CARD_VERSION = "1.0.0" + + +@dataclass +class ModelArtifact: + model_id: str + version: str + method: str + feature_weights: dict[str, float] + notes: str + + +# The "learned" configuration of the rule-based model. Documented explicitly so +# the published artifact is interpretable and reproducible. +ARTIFACT = ModelArtifact( + model_id=MODEL_ID, + version=MODEL_CARD_VERSION, + method="multi-factor rule-based scoring (0-100)", + feature_weights={ + "recent_form": 25.0, + "overall_win_pct": 20.0, + "overall_place_pct": 10.0, + "track_strike": 10.0, + "distance_strike": 8.0, + "condition_strike": 8.0, + "barrier_draw": 5.0, + "career_prize": 5.0, + }, + notes=( + "Open-source multi-factor trifecta scorer. No supervised training " + "(no historical race results available in data/results/). Scores are " + "deterministic given runner form/stat inputs. Future v2 will train a " + "gradient-boosted model on observed outcomes." + ), +) + + +def save_artifact(out_dir: str | Path) -> Path: + out_dir = Path(out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + path = out_dir / "model_artifact.json" + path.write_text(json.dumps(asdict(ARTIFACT), indent=2)) + return path + + +def load_artifact(path: str | Path) -> ModelArtifact: + data = json.loads(Path(path).read_text()) + return ModelArtifact(**data) + + +def predict_race(race: Race) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Convenience: run the packaged predictor on a Race.""" + return TrifectaPredictor().predict(race) + + +def race_from_payload(payload: dict[str, Any]) -> Race: + """Build a Race from the Trifecta-Bro predictions JSON shape.""" + form = payload.get("form", {}) + runners = [ + Runner( + number=r.get("number", 0), + name=r.get("name", ""), + jockey=r.get("jockey", ""), + trainer=r.get("trainer", ""), + weight=r.get("weight"), + barrier=r.get("barrier"), + form=r.get("form", ""), + last20Starts=r.get("last20Starts", ""), + careerPrizeMoney=r.get("careerPrizeMoney", "$0"), + scratched=bool(r.get("scratched", False)), + stats=r.get("stats", {}), + ) + for r in form.get("runners", []) + ] + return Race( + date=payload.get("date", ""), + track=payload.get("track", ""), + track_slug=payload.get("track_slug", ""), + race_number=str(payload.get("race_number", "")), + race_name=payload.get("race_name", ""), + distance=payload.get("distance", ""), + condition=payload.get("condition", ""), + weather=payload.get("weather", ""), + race_class=payload.get("race_class", ""), + start_time=payload.get("start_time", ""), + prize_money=payload.get("prize_money", ""), + number_of_runners=int(payload.get("number_of_runners", 0) or 0), + runners=runners, + ) diff --git a/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/main.py b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/main.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9f0cbbb27f1241ff21a2cd6c2c4a20b51c42a5f0 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/main.py @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""CLI for Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1. + +Usage: + # Run on the bundled sample race + python -m trifecta_bro_v1.main + + # Run on a Trifecta-Bro predictions JSON file + python -m trifecta_bro_v1.main --data /path/to/predictions-2026-08-10.json +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +from .artifact import predict_race, race_from_payload +from .predictor import TrifectaPredictor + +# A tiny self-contained demo race so the package is runnable with no inputs. +SAMPLE = { + "date": "2026-08-10", + "track": "Dubbo", + "track_slug": "dubbo", + "race_number": "3", + "race_name": "Aqua West Country Boosted BM58 Handicap", + "distance": "1620m", + "condition": "Soft 5", + "weather": "Showers", + "race_class": "BM58", + "start_time": "2026-08-10T04:40:00Z", + "prize_money": "30000", + "number_of_runners": 3, + "form": { + "runners": [ + {"number": 1, "name": "Boncapo", "form": "X1241", "stats": {"overall": {"winPercent": 0.25, "placePercent": 0.5}}}, + {"number": 14, "name": "Bill Peyto", "form": "36412", "stats": {"overall": {"winPercent": 0.07, "placePercent": 0.35}}}, + {"number": 7, "name": "Casterly Rock", "form": "23939", "stats": {"overall": {"winPercent": 0.06, "placePercent": 0.48}}}, + ] + }, +} + + +def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: + p = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1 predictor") + p.add_argument("--data", help="Path to a Trifecta-Bro predictions JSON file") + p.add_argument("--race", type=int, default=0, help="1-based race index when --data is given") + args = p.parse_args(argv) + + if args.data: + payload = json.loads(Path(args.data).read_text()) + races = payload.get("races", [payload]) + idx = max(0, args.race - 1) + if idx >= len(races): + print(f"Race index {args.race} out of range (have {len(races)})", file=sys.stderr) + return 2 + race = race_from_payload(races[idx]) + else: + race = race_from_payload(SAMPLE) + + pred = TrifectaPredictor().predict(race) + print(json.dumps(pred, indent=2)) + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/predictor.py b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/predictor.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..acd211921ef6bb55395dd6a995f25fee1aa5abc3 --- /dev/null +++ b/hf_model_repo/trifecta_bro_v1/predictor.py @@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ +"""Trifecta-Bro v1 — open-source multi-factor trifecta predictor. + +Model id: Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1 (HF repo: Brettapps/trifecta-bro-v1) + +This is the standalone inference module for the HuggingFace model repo. It is a +self-contained, dependency-light implementation of the trifecta prediction logic +(rule-based multi-factor scoring). It mirrors `src/prediction_model.py` in the +Trifecta-Bro Space so the published model is directly usable without cloning the +whole Space. + +Load it: + from trifecta_bro_v1.predictor import TrifectaPredictor, Race, Runner + pred = TrifectaPredictor().predict(race) +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from dataclasses import dataclass, field +from typing import Any + + +@dataclass +class Runner: + number: int + name: str + jockey: str = "" + trainer: str = "" + weight: float | None = None + barrier: int | None = None + form: str = "" + last20Starts: str = "" + careerPrizeMoney: str = "$0" + scratched: bool = False + stats: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) + + +@dataclass +class Race: + date: str + track: str + track_slug: str + race_number: str + race_name: str + distance: str + condition: str + weather: str + race_class: str + start_time: str + prize_money: str + number_of_runners: int + runners: list[Runner] = field(default_factory=list) + + +class TrifectaPredictor: + """Open-source trifecta prediction model. + + Scores each runner on a 0-100 scale using recent form, career/overall + win & place percentages, track/distance/condition strike rates, barrier + draw, and career prize money. The top three by score form the primary + trifecta; secondary and value bets are derived from the next-best runners. + """ + + MODEL_ID = "Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1" + + def predict(self, race: Race) -> dict[str, Any]: + runners = [r for r in race.runners if not r.scratched] + if len(runners) < 3: + return {"error": "Insufficient runners"} + + scored: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + for runner in runners: + scored.append({ + "number": runner.number, + "name": runner.name, + "score": self._score_runner(runner), + "win_prob": self._win_probability(runner), + "place_prob": self._place_probability(runner), + }) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x["score"], reverse=True) + top = scored[:3] + primary = f"{top[0]['number']}-{top[1]['number']}-{top[2]['number']}" + + secondary = None + value = None + if len(scored) > 3: + secondary = f"{top[0]['number']}-{top[2]['number']}-{scored[3]['number']}" + outsiders = [s for s in scored[3:] if s["score"] > 30] + if outsiders: + value = f"{scored[1]['number']}-{top[0]['number']}-{outsiders[0]['number']}" + else: + value = f"{scored[1]['number']}-{top[0]['number']}-{top[2]['number']}" + + return { + "model_id": self.MODEL_ID, + "date": race.date, + "track": race.track, + "race_number": race.race_number, + "race_name": race.race_name, + "primary": primary, + "secondary": secondary, + "value": value, + "top3": top, + "confidence": "MEDIUM", + } + + def _score_runner(self, runner: Runner) -> float: + score = 0.0 + form = str(runner.form or runner.last20Starts or "") + recent = form[-5:] if len(form) > 5 else form + score += min((recent.count("1") * 8 + recent.count("2") * 4 + recent.count("3") * 4), 25) + + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + win_pct = overall.get("winPercent", 0) or 0 + place_pct = overall.get("placePercent", 0) or 0 + score += win_pct * 20 + score += place_pct * 10 + + track_stats = runner.stats.get("track", {}) + track_starts = track_stats.get("starts", 0) or 0 + track_places = track_stats.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((track_places / max(track_starts, 1)) * 10, 10) + + dist_stats = runner.stats.get("distance", {}) + dist_starts = dist_stats.get("starts", 0) or 0 + dist_places = dist_stats.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((dist_places / max(dist_starts, 1)) * 8, 8) + + cond_stats = runner.stats.get("conditions", {}) + for _key, data in cond_stats.items(): + c_starts = data.get("starts", 0) or 0 + c_places = data.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((c_places / max(c_starts, 1)) * 8, 8) + + try: + barrier = int(runner.barrier) if runner.barrier else 5 + score += max(0, 5 - abs(barrier - 5)) + except Exception: + score += 3 + + try: + prize = float(str(runner.careerPrizeMoney).replace("$", "").replace(",", "")) + score += min(prize / 20000, 5) + except Exception: + pass + + return min(round(score, 1), 100) + + def _win_probability(self, runner: Runner) -> float: + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + win_pct = overall.get("winPercent", 0) or 0 + return min(max(round(win_pct * 100, 1), 0), 100) + + def _place_probability(self, runner: Runner) -> float: + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + place_pct = overall.get("placePercent", 0) or 0 + return min(max(round(place_pct * 100, 1), 0), 100) diff --git a/hostinger.toml b/hostinger.toml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..27e3df29d2a54d423d536e76638d15837e4b78be --- /dev/null +++ b/hostinger.toml @@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ +# Hostinger Deployment Configuration +# AI Lead Generation Agency + +[build] +command = "pip install -r requirements.txt" +publish = "src/" + +[env] +PYTHONUNBUFFERED = "1" +ANTHROPIC_API_KEY = "{env.ANTHROPIC_API_KEY}" +OPENAI_API_KEY = "{env.OPENAI_API_KEY}" +DATABASE_URL = "postgresql://hermes:hermes@localhost/herd" + +[http] +routes = [ + { path = "/api/v1/score", handler = "leads.score" }, + { path = "/api/v1/campaigns", handler = "campaigns.run" }, + { path = "/api/v1/leads", handler = "leads.process" } +] + +[logs] +level = "info" +format = "json" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/install_lms.sh b/install_lms.sh new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b86ebfa18caaefaea2ecaa93d1a76a3880ec9cd1 --- /dev/null +++ b/install_lms.sh @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env bash +# Extract the `lms` CLI binary from the LM Studio AppImage and bootstrap it. +# Run AFTER the AppImage has finished downloading to /tmp/LM_Studio.AppImage. +set -euo pipefail + +APPIMAGE="/tmp/LM_Studio.AppImage" +EXTRACT_DIR="$HOME/Applications/LMStudio/squashfs-root" +BIN_DIR="$HOME/.lmstudio/bin" + +echo "==> Verifying AppImage integrity" +if [ ! -s "$APPIMAGE" ]; then + echo "ERROR: $APPIMAGE missing or empty" >&2 + exit 1 +fi +head -c 2 "$APPIMAGE" | grep -q AI || { echo "ERROR: not an AppImage (magic bytes)" >&2; exit 1; } + +echo "==> Making AppImage executable" +chmod +x "$APPIMAGE" + +echo "==> Extracting squashfs root (--appimage-extract)" +rm -rf "$EXTRACT_DIR" +( cd "$HOME/Applications/LMStudio" && "$APPIMAGE" --appimage-extract >/dev/null 2>&1 ) || { + echo "AppImage self-extract failed; attempting runtime extraction via --appimage-mount" + mkdir -p "$EXTRACT_DIR" +} + +echo "==> Locating the lms binary inside the extracted tree" +LMS_BIN=$(find "$EXTRACT_DIR" -type f -name lms 2>/dev/null | head -1) +if [ -z "$LMS_BIN" ]; then + echo "ERROR: lms binary not found under $EXTRACT_DIR" >&2 + echo "Tree (top 2 levels):" >&2 + find "$EXTRACT_DIR" -maxdepth 2 2>/dev/null | head -40 >&2 + exit 1 +fi +echo " found: $LMS_BIN" + +echo "==> Installing lms to $BIN_DIR" +mkdir -p "$BIN_DIR" +cp -f "$LMS_BIN" "$BIN_DIR/lms" +chmod +x "$BIN_DIR/lms" + +echo "==> Ensuring $BIN_DIR is on PATH for this shell session" +export PATH="$BIN_DIR:$PATH" + +echo "==> Running 'lms bootstrap' (documents the CLI with LM Studio)" +"$BIN_DIR/lms" bootstrap || echo "WARN: lms bootstrap returned non-zero (non-fatal)" + +echo "==> Version check" +"$BIN_DIR/lms" --version || "$BIN_DIR/lms" --help | head -20 + +echo "==> DONE. lms installed at $BIN_DIR/lms" +echo " Start the OpenAI-compatible server with: lms server start" +echo " Load this project's model with: lms load Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1" diff --git a/landing.html b/landing.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bafc1fd613c997b5c1586d6f5de5ffd64be93dd3 --- /dev/null +++ b/landing.html @@ -0,0 +1,293 @@ + + + + + + Trifecta-Bro | Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions + + + + + +
+
+ + +
+
+ +
+
+

Smarter trifectas for
Australian Gallops

+

Form-driven predictions, confidence ratings, and PDF race booklets delivered every meeting. Built for punters who want structure over noise.

+
+ View Plans + See How It Works +
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+ +
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47+

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Races covered per meeting day

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+
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6

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Factor scoring model

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Primary / Secondary / Value

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Trifecta combinations per race

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PDF

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Booklet downloads included

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+ +
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How it works

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From race data to finished trifecta selections, automatically.

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+
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1. Race data ingestion

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We pull runner form, track conditions, barrier draws, jockey and trainer stats for every available meeting.

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2. Weighted scoring

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Each runner is scored across form, ground suitability, jockey advantage, barrier position, value and trainer form.

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3. Combination generation

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We output primary, secondary and value trifecta combinations plus confidence ratings and roughie notes.

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3. PDF delivery

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Race booklets are generated and published so you can study selections offline before the gates open.

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Sample predictions

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What a race-day selection looks like.

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RaceDistance / ConditionPrimarySecondaryValueConfidence
R11200m / Soft 63-7-13-1-97-3-5MEDIUM-HIGH
R21400m / Heavy 106-2-46-4-82-6-11MEDIUM
R31600m / Good 41-5-21-2-95-1-3MEDIUM-HIGH
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+ +
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Simple pricing

+

Start with a meet pass, then go weekly if it fits your workflow.

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+

Single Meet

+
$4/meet
+
    +
  • One track PDF booklet
    • +
  • Primary, secondary and value combos
    • +
  • Confidence ratings
    • +
  • Instant download
    • +
+ Buy Pass +
+
+
Most popular
+

Weekly Pass

+
$9/week
+
    +
  • All Australian meetings
    • +
  • PDF booklets every race day
    • +
  • Backtest + ROI report
    • +
  • Priority updates
    • +
+ Get Weekly +
+
+

Monthly

+
$19/month
+
    +
  • Everything in Weekly
    • +
  • Archived predictions
    • +
  • Model variant comparisons
    • +
  • Support via email
    • +
+ Go Monthly +
+
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+ +
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+

FAQ

+
+
+

What data do you use?

+

We combine publicly available race form with track-condition weighting, barrier analysis, jockey and trainer form. Predictions are generated from open tooling, not opaque tips.

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Which tracks are covered?

+

We target major Australian Gallops meetings. Coverage depends on form-data availability for the day; if a track is missing, it is usually an API/availability issue, not a paywall.

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+

Are these guaranteed wins?

+

No. Trifecta-Bro is an analysis and publishing tool. All predictions are informational only and should be treated as one input among many.

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+

How do I get my PDF?

+

After purchase, a download link is issued for that meet's booklet. Weekly and monthly subscribers get race-morning access through the subscriber area.

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+ + + + + + + diff --git a/model_registry.json b/model_registry.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..20e7d405eee9bf0d71b9e083d035541922997467 --- /dev/null +++ b/model_registry.json @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +{ + "models": [ + { + "id": "Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1", + "display_name": "Trifecta-Bro v1", + "backend": "lmstudio", + "base_url": "http://localhost:1234/v1", + "status": "registered", + "gguf_path": null, + "registered_at": "2026-08-09T23:25:00Z", + "notes": "Logical model identity for Trifecta-Bro. Bind to a real GGUF via `lms import ` + `lms load Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1` once weights exist. Vault-backed prompt pipeline wired separately.", + "context_window": 8192, + "api": "openai-compatible", + "endpoint": "http://localhost:1234/v1/chat/completions" + } + ] +} diff --git a/optimize.py b/optimize.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..bb595b632147e057ce70fd792e23da87e8df19d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize.py @@ -0,0 +1,339 @@ +"""Optimized weight finder using random search on cached data.""" +import json +import random +import math +from pathlib import Path +from collections import defaultdict +import itertools + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' + +random.seed(42) + + +def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + """Load all cached form data for a date.""" + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def load_results(date: str) -> dict: + """Load actual results for a date.""" + result_lookup = {} + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return result_lookup + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(x) for x in r['trifecta']] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(x) for x in r['trifecta']] + + return result_lookup + + +def score_race_with_weights(race_data: dict, weights: dict) -> list[int] | None: + """Score a race with given weights, return trifecta.""" + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], + name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), + trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), + barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), + sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), + last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), + track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append((r.number, sc['score'])) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]] + except: + return None + + +def evaluate_weights_on_date(date: str, weights: dict, result_lookup: dict) -> dict: + """Evaluate weights on a single date.""" + races = load_cached_races(date) + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race_with_weights(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + return stats + + +def evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates: list[str], weights: dict) -> dict: + """Evaluate weights across all dates.""" + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + stats = evaluate_weights_on_date(date, weights, result_lookup) + agg["total"] += stats["total"] + agg["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg["exact"] += stats["exact"] + agg["box"] += stats["box"] + + agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0 + return agg + + +def random_weights() -> dict: + """Generate random weights that sum to ~1.0.""" + weights = {} + for k in ["form", "class", "distance", "track", "track_distance", + "condition", "jockey", "fitness", "barrier", "weight", "pace"]: + weights[k] = random.random() + + total = sum(weights.values()) + return {k: v / total for k, v in weights.items()} + + +def random_search(dates: list[str], n_iterations: int = 200) -> list[dict]: + """Random search for optimal weights.""" + results = [] + + # Also test the base weights + base_weights = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + # Evaluate base + base_stats = evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates, base_weights) + results.append({"weights": base_weights, "stats": base_stats, "top1_pct": base_stats["top1_pct"]}) + print(f"Base weights: {base_stats['top1_pct']:.1f}%") + + # Random search + for i in range(n_iterations): + weights = random_weights() + stats = evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates, weights) + + results.append({"weights": weights, "stats": stats, "top1_pct": stats["top1_pct"]}) + + if (i + 1) % 50 == 0: + best_so_far = max(results, key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"]) + print(f" Iteration {i+1}: best = {best_so_far['top1_pct']:.1f}%") + + results.sort(key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"], reverse=True) + return results + + +def coordinate_descent(dates: list[str], base_weights: dict, n_rounds: int = 10) -> dict: + """Optimize one parameter at a time while holding others fixed.""" + weights = dict(base_weights) + + param_ranges = { + "form": [0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30], + "class": [0.08, 0.12, 0.16, 0.20], + "distance": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12, 0.16], + "track": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12, 0.16], + "track_distance": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12, 0.16], + "condition": [0.02, 0.05, 0.08], + "jockey": [0.02, 0.05, 0.08, 0.10], + "fitness": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "barrier": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12, 0.16], + "weight": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "pace": [0.02, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08], + } + + current_best = evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates, weights) + current_pct = current_best["top1_pct"] + print(f"Starting coordinate descent from {current_pct:.1f}%") + + for round_num in range(n_rounds): + improved = False + + for param in param_ranges: + best_value = weights[param] + best_pct = current_pct + + for value in param_ranges[param]: + test_weights = dict(weights) + test_weights[param] = value + + # Normalize + total = sum(test_weights.values()) + test_weights = {k: v / total for k, v in test_weights.items()} + + stats = evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates, test_weights) + + if stats["top1_pct"] > best_pct: + best_pct = stats["top1_pct"] + best_value = value + improved = True + + weights[param] = best_value + + # Normalize after each round + total = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total for k, v in weights.items()} + + current_best = evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates, weights) + current_pct = current_best["top1_pct"] + + print(f" Round {round_num + 1}: {current_pct:.1f}%") + + if not improved: + print(f" No improvement, stopping") + break + + return {"weights": weights, "stats": current_best, "top1_pct": current_pct} + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + print("=" * 60) + print("WEIGHT OPTIMIZATION") + print("=" * 60) + + # Test base weights first + base_weights = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + print("\n--- Base weights ---") + base_stats = evaluate_weights_all_dates(dates, base_weights) + print(f"Top 1: {base_stats['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({base_stats['top1']}/{base_stats['total']})") + + # Random search + print("\n--- Random search ---") + random_results = random_search(dates, n_iterations=200) + + print("\n--- Top 5 from random search ---") + for i, r in enumerate(random_results[:5]): + w = r['weights'] + print(f"{i+1}. Top1: {r['top1_pct']:.1f}% | " + f"form={w['form']:.2f} class={w['class']:.2f} dist={w['distance']:.2f} " + f"track={w['track']:.2f} td={w['track_distance']:.2f} " + f"fitness={w['fitness']:.2f} barrier={w['barrier']:.2f} " + f"weight={w['weight']:.2f} pace={w['pace']:.2f}") + + # Coordinate descent from best random + best_random = random_results[0] + print("\n--- Coordinate descent from best random ---") + cd_result = coordinate_descent(dates, best_random["weights"]) + + print("\n--- Final optimized weights ---") + print(f"Top 1: {cd_result['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({cd_result['stats']['top1']}/{cd_result['stats']['total']})") + + w = cd_result['weights'] + print(f"form={w['form']:.2f}, class={w['class']:.2f}, distance={w['distance']:.2f}, " + f"track={w['track']:.2f}, track_distance={w['track_distance']:.2f}, " + f"condition={w['condition']:.2f}, jockey={w['jockey']:.2f}, " + f"fitness={w['fitness']:.2f}, barrier={w['barrier']:.2f}, " + f"weight={w['weight']:.2f}, pace={w['pace']:.2f}") + + # Per-date breakdown + print("\nPer-date breakdown:") + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + stats = evaluate_weights_on_date(date, cd_result["weights"], result_lookup) + if stats['total'] > 0: + print(f" {date}: {stats['total']} races, {stats['top1']} top1 ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.0f}%)") + + return cd_result + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/optimize_distances.py b/optimize_distances.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f35f569c91c256131ff305402cb455e795899507 --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize_distances.py @@ -0,0 +1,241 @@ +"""Optimize with distance-specific profiles.""" +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance, parse_distance + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' + + +def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def load_results(date: str) -> dict: + result_lookup = {} + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return result_lookup + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + + return result_lookup + + +def score_race(race_data: dict, weights_by_dist: dict) -> list[int] | None: + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + distance = race_data.get('distance', '1200m') + dist_class = classify_distance(distance) + weights = weights_by_dist.get(dist_class, weights_by_dist['middle']) + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=distance, + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append((r.number, sc['score'])) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]] + except: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights_by_dist: dict) -> dict: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights_by_dist) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + return stats + + +def evaluate_all(dates: list[str], weights_by_dist: dict) -> dict: + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights_by_dist) + agg["total"] += stats["total"] + agg["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg["exact"] += stats["exact"] + agg["box"] += stats["box"] + agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0 + return agg + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + # Distance-specific profiles + profiles = { + "sprint": { + "form": 0.15, "class": 0.10, "distance": 0.06, "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.04, "jockey": 0.04, + "fitness": 0.04, "barrier": 0.14, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.10, + "market": 0.11, + }, + "middle": { + "form": 0.20, "class": 0.13, "distance": 0.08, "track": 0.08, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.05, "barrier": 0.13, "weight": 0.05, "pace": 0.04, + "market": 0.05, + }, + "staying": { + "form": 0.14, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.06, "jockey": 0.08, + "fitness": 0.10, "barrier": 0.04, "weight": 0.06, "pace": 0.04, + "market": 0.10, + }, + } + + print("=" * 60) + print("DISTANCE-SPECIFIC PROFILES") + print("=" * 60) + + # Evaluate with distance-specific profiles + agg = evaluate_all(dates, profiles) + print(f"\nDistance-specific: {agg['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({agg['top1']}/{agg['total']})") + + # Per-date breakdown + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, profiles) + if stats['total'] > 0: + print(f" {date}: {stats['top1']}/{stats['total']} ({stats['top1_pct']:.1f}%)") + + # Compare with flat weights + flat_weights = { + "form": 0.20, "class": 0.13, "distance": 0.08, "track": 0.08, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.07, "jockey": 0.08, + "fitness": 0.05, "barrier": 0.13, "weight": 0.05, "pace": 0.04, + } + flat_profiles = {"sprint": flat_weights, "middle": flat_weights, "staying": flat_weights} + flat_agg = evaluate_all(dates, flat_profiles) + + print(f"\nFlat weights: {flat_agg['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({flat_agg['top1']}/{flat_agg['total']})") + + # Per-distance breakdown + print("\nPer-distance breakdown:") + for dist_class in ["sprint", "middle", "staying"]: + dist_stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0} + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + for race_data in races: + distance = race_data.get('distance', '1200m') + if classify_distance(distance) == dist_class: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + pred = score_race(race_data, profiles) + if not pred: + continue + dist_stats["total"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + dist_stats["top1"] += 1 + + if dist_stats["total"] > 0: + print(f" {dist_class}: {dist_stats['top1']}/{dist_stats['total']} ({dist_stats['top1']/dist_stats['total']*100:.1f}%)") + + return profiles + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/optimize_distances_v2.py b/optimize_distances_v2.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..27be9ec09d4915df94b79495e510526a427c026c --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize_distances_v2.py @@ -0,0 +1,295 @@ +"""Build distance-specific models with proper calibration.""" +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' + + +def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def load_results(date: str) -> dict: + result_lookup = {} + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return result_lookup + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + + return result_lookup + + +def score_race(race_data: dict, weights: dict) -> list[int] | None: + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append((r.number, sc['score'])) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]] + except: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + return stats + + +def evaluate_all(dates: list[str], weights: dict) -> dict: + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights) + agg["total"] += stats["total"] + agg["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg["exact"] += stats["exact"] + agg["box"] += stats["box"] + agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0 + return agg + + +def grid_search_for_distance(dates: list[str], distance_class: str) -> dict: + """Find optimal weights for a specific distance class.""" + + # First, get all races for this distance class + races_for_dist = [] + for date in dates: + races = load_cached_races(date) + for race_data in races: + if classify_distance(race_data.get('distance', '1200m')) == distance_class: + races_for_dist.append((date, race_data)) + + if not races_for_dist: + return {"weights": None, "top1_pct": 0, "total": 0} + + # Grid search + best_pct = 0 + best_weights = None + + for form in [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30]: + for class_w in [0.10, 0.15, 0.20]: + for dist in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]: + for td in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]: + for barrier in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14, 0.18]: + for fitness in [0.04, 0.08, 0.12]: + for pace in [0.02, 0.05, 0.08, 0.12]: + for weight in [0.04, 0.08, 0.12]: + weights = { + "form": form, "class": class_w, "distance": dist, + "track": dist, "track_distance": td, + "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": fitness, "barrier": barrier, + "weight": weight, "pace": pace, + } + total_w = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()} + + # Evaluate on this distance class only + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0} + for date, race_data in races_for_dist: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + if stats["total"] > 0: + pct = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + if pct > best_pct: + best_pct = pct + best_weights = weights + + return {"weights": best_weights, "top1_pct": best_pct, "total": len(races_for_dist)} + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + print("=" * 60) + print("DISTANCE-SPECIFIC OPTIMIZATION") + print("=" * 60) + + # Find optimal weights per distance class + for dist_class in ["sprint", "middle", "staying"]: + print(f"\n--- {dist_class.upper()} ---") + result = grid_search_for_distance(dates, dist_class) + if result["weights"]: + print(f"Best: {result['top1_pct']:.1f}% on {result['total']} races") + w = result["weights"] + print(f" form={w['form']:.2f}, class={w['class']:.2f}, barrier={w['barrier']:.2f}, " + f"pace={w['pace']:.2f}, fitness={w['fitness']:.2f}, weight={w['weight']:.2f}") + else: + print("No races found for this distance class") + + # Combined evaluation + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("COMBINED EVALUATION") + print("=" * 60) + + # Use best weights per distance class + profiles = { + "sprint": { + "form": 0.15, "class": 0.10, "distance": 0.06, "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.04, "jockey": 0.04, + "fitness": 0.04, "barrier": 0.18, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.12, + }, + "middle": { + "form": 0.20, "class": 0.13, "distance": 0.08, "track": 0.08, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.05, "barrier": 0.13, "weight": 0.05, "pace": 0.04, + }, + "staying": { + "form": 0.14, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.06, "jockey": 0.08, + "fitness": 0.10, "barrier": 0.04, "weight": 0.06, "pace": 0.04, + }, + } + + # Evaluate with distance-specific profiles + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0} + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + dist_class = classify_distance(race_data.get('distance', '1200m')) + weights = profiles[dist_class] + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + agg["total"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + agg["top1"] += 1 + + if agg["total"] > 0: + print(f"\nCombined: {agg['top1']}/{agg['total']} ({agg['top1']/agg['total']*100:.1f}%)") + + return profiles + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/optimize_fast.py b/optimize_fast.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d2e7b19aeccd83b634802f5df10abb06c055a76f --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize_fast.py @@ -0,0 +1,243 @@ +"""Fast optimization using random search.""" +import json +import random +from pathlib import Path + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' + +random.seed(42) + + +def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def load_results(date: str) -> dict: + result_lookup = {} + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return result_lookup + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + + return result_lookup + + +def score_race(race_data: dict, weights: dict) -> list[int] | None: + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append((r.number, sc['score'])) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]] + except: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + return stats + + +def evaluate_all(dates: list[str], weights: dict) -> dict: + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights) + agg["total"] += stats["total"] + agg["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg["exact"] += stats["exact"] + agg["box"] += stats["box"] + agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0 + return agg + + +def random_weights() -> dict: + """Generate random weights that sum to ~1.0.""" + keys = ["form", "class", "distance", "track", "track_distance", + "condition", "jockey", "fitness", "barrier", "weight", "pace"] + vals = [random.random() for _ in keys] + total = sum(vals) + return {k: v / total for k, v in zip(keys, vals)} + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + print("=" * 60) + print("FAST OPTIMIZATION (Random Search)") + print("=" * 60) + + # Base weights + base = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + base_stats = evaluate_all(dates, base) + print(f"Base: {base_stats['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({base_stats['top1']}/{base_stats['total']})") + + # Random search - 100 iterations + best_pct = base_stats['top1_pct'] + best_weights = base + + for i in range(100): + weights = random_weights() + stats = evaluate_all(dates, weights) + + if stats['top1_pct'] > best_pct: + best_pct = stats['top1_pct'] + best_weights = weights + print(f" New best at iter {i+1}: {best_pct:.1f}%") + + print(f"\nBest: {best_pct:.1f}%") + w = best_weights + print(f"form={w['form']:.2f}, class={w['class']:.2f}, dist={w['distance']:.2f}, " + f"track={w['track']:.2f}, td={w['track_distance']:.2f}, " + f"cond={w['condition']:.2f}, jockey={w['jockey']:.2f}, " + f"fitness={w['fitness']:.2f}, barrier={w['barrier']:.2f}, " + f"weight={w['weight']:.2f}, pace={w['pace']:.2f}") + + # Per-date breakdown + print("\nPer-date breakdown:") + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, best_weights) + if stats['total'] > 0: + print(f" {date}: {stats['top1']}/{stats['total']} ({stats['top1_pct']:.1f}%)") + + # Per-distance breakdown + print("\nPer-distance breakdown:") + for dist_class in ["sprint", "middle", "staying"]: + dist_stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0} + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + races = load_cached_races(date) + for race_data in races: + if classify_distance(race_data.get('distance', '1200m')) == dist_class: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + pred = score_race(race_data, best_weights) + if not pred: + continue + dist_stats["total"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + dist_stats["top1"] += 1 + + if dist_stats["total"] > 0: + print(f" {dist_class}: {dist_stats['top1']}/{dist_stats['total']} ({dist_stats['top1']/dist_stats['total']*100:.1f}%)") + + return best_weights + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/optimize_simple.py b/optimize_simple.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2bf0a5f8aa686530ea4c1872cdde47339ab183a2 --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize_simple.py @@ -0,0 +1,208 @@ +"""Quick optimizer — re-score cached races with new weights.""" +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' + + +def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]: + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def load_results(date: str) -> dict: + result_lookup = {} + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return result_lookup + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']] + + return result_lookup + + +def score_race(race_data: dict, weights: dict) -> list[int] | None: + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append((r.number, sc['score'])) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]] + except: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict, result_lookup: dict) -> dict: + races = load_cached_races(date) + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + + for race_data in races: + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + pred = score_race(race_data, weights) + if not pred: + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + + return stats + + +def evaluate_all(dates: list[str], weights: dict) -> dict: + agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0} + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights, result_lookup) + agg["total"] += stats["total"] + agg["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg["exact"] += stats["exact"] + agg["box"] += stats["box"] + agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0 + return agg + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + # Base weights + base = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + print("Base weights:", evaluate_all(dates, base)) + + # Try different combinations + best_pct = 0 + best_weights = None + + # Systematic search over key parameters + for form in [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30]: + for class_w in [0.10, 0.15, 0.20]: + for dist in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]: + for td in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]: + for barrier in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]: + for fitness in [0.04, 0.08, 0.12]: + weights = { + "form": form, "class": class_w, "distance": dist, + "track": dist, "track_distance": td, + "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": fitness, "barrier": barrier, + "weight": fitness, "pace": 0.03, + } + total_w = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()} + + stats = evaluate_all(dates, weights) + if stats["top1_pct"] > best_pct: + best_pct = stats["top1_pct"] + best_weights = weights + print(f"New best: {best_pct:.1f}%") + + print(f"\nBest: {best_pct:.1f}%") + print(f"Weights: {best_weights}") + + # Per-date breakdown + for date in dates: + result_lookup = load_results(date) + stats = evaluate_date(date, best_weights, result_lookup) + if stats['total'] > 0: + print(f" {date}: {stats['top1']}/{stats['total']} ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.0f}%)") + + return best_weights + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/optimize_weights.py b/optimize_weights.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6135be328cc329c533314ccb0d7e7d49ad5fbf15 --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize_weights.py @@ -0,0 +1,304 @@ +"""Re-score cached form data with different weights to find optimal profile.""" +import json +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from collections import defaultdict + +logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(message)s") + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel, MeetingModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' +REPORTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'reports' + + +def load_cached_form(date: str, track: str, race: str) -> dict | None: + """Load cached FormFav form data.""" + # Try multiple cache file patterns + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if data.get('date') == date and data.get('track', '').lower() == track.lower() and str(data.get('raceNumber')) == str(race): + return data + except: + continue + return None + + +def re_score_race(weights: dict, race_data: dict) -> dict | None: + """Re-score a race with new weights using cached form data.""" + try: + # Build RunnerModel objects + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], + name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), + trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), + barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), + sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), + last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + # Build RaceModel + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), + track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', ''), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + # Classify pace + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + + # Score runners + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append({ + 'number': r.number, + 'name': r.name, + 'score': sc['score'], + }) + + # Sort by score + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x['score'], reverse=True) + + # Generate trifecta + trifecta = [s['number'] for s in scored[:3]] + + return { + 'track': race_data.get('track', ''), + 'race': race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + 'trifecta': trifecta, + 'runners': scored, + } + except Exception as e: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict: + """Evaluate a single date with given weights.""" + # Load results + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "error": "no results"} + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + # Build result lookup + result_lookup = {} + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', r.get('race_number', 0)))] = r['trifecta'] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = r['trifecta'] + + # Find all cached form files for this date + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0, "top3": 0} + + for cache_file in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(cache_file) as f: + data = json.load(f) + if data.get('date') != date: + continue + + track = data.get('track', '') + race_num = data.get('raceNumber', 0) + + # Check if we have results for this race + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + # Re-score with new weights + result = re_score_race(weights, data) + if not result: + continue + + pred_nums = result['trifecta'] + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred_nums == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred_nums) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred_nums[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + stats["top3"] += len(set(pred_nums) & set(actual)) + except Exception as e: + continue + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + stats["top3_pct"] = stats["top3"] / (stats["total"] * 3) * 100 + + return stats + + +def grid_search(dates: list[str], param_grid: dict, base_weights: dict): + """Grid search over weight combinations.""" + import itertools + + param_names = list(param_grid.keys()) + param_values = [param_grid[name] for name in param_names] + + results = [] + total_combos = 1 + for v in param_values: + total_combos *= len(v) + + print(f"Testing {total_combos} weight combinations...") + + for i, combo in enumerate(itertools.product(*param_values)): + weights = dict(base_weights) + for name, value in zip(param_names, combo): + weights[name] = value + + # Normalize + total_w = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()} + + # Evaluate across all dates + agg_stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0} + + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights) + if "error" not in stats: + agg_stats["total"] += stats["total"] + agg_stats["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg_stats["exact"] += stats["exact"] + + top1_pct = agg_stats["top1"] / agg_stats["total"] * 100 if agg_stats["total"] > 0 else 0 + + results.append({ + "params": dict(zip(param_names, combo)), + "weights": weights, + "stats": agg_stats, + "top1_pct": top1_pct, + }) + + if (i + 1) % 100 == 0: + print(f" Progress: {i+1}/{total_combos}") + + results.sort(key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"], reverse=True) + return results + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + # Base v2.0 weights + base_weights = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + # Define search grid + param_grid = { + "form": [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30], + "class": [0.10, 0.15, 0.20], + "distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "track": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "track_distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "fitness": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "barrier": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "weight": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "pace": [0.02, 0.05, 0.08], + } + + # Fix condition and jockey to reduce search space + fixed = {"condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06} + + print("=" * 60) + print("GRID SEARCH OPTIMIZATION (v2.0)") + print("=" * 60) + + results = grid_search(dates, param_grid, {**base_weights, **fixed}) + + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("TOP 10 WEIGHT COMBINATIONS") + print("=" * 60) + + for i, r in enumerate(results[:10]): + print(f"\n{i+1}. Top1: {r['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({r['stats']['top1']}/{r['stats']['total']})") + p = r['params'] + print(f" form={p['form']:.2f}, class={p['class']:.2f}, dist={p['distance']:.2f}, " + f"track={p['track']:.2f}, track_dist={p['track_distance']:.2f}, " + f"fitness={p['fitness']:.2f}, barrier={p['barrier']:.2f}, " + f"weight={p['weight']:.2f}, pace={p['pace']:.2f}") + + # Best weights + if results: + best = results[0] + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("BEST WEIGHTS FOUND") + print("=" * 60) + print(f"Top 1: {best['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({best['stats']['top1']}/{best['stats']['total']})") + + # Per-date breakdown + print("\nPer-date performance:") + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, best['weights']) + if stats['total'] > 0: + print(f" {date}: {stats['total']} races, {stats['top1']} top1 ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.0f}%)") + + return results + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/optimize_weights_v2.py b/optimize_weights_v2.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4c8b216c3ca2067cd3c07668f81001c792034965 --- /dev/null +++ b/optimize_weights_v2.py @@ -0,0 +1,284 @@ +"""Build optimal model from cached data with proper re-scoring.""" +import json +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from collections import defaultdict +import itertools + +logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(message)s") + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance, get_profile + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' +REPORTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'reports' + + +def load_cached_form(date: str, track: str, race: str) -> dict | None: + """Load cached FormFav form data.""" + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if (data.get('date') == date and + data.get('track', '').lower() == track.lower() and + str(data.get('raceNumber')) == str(race)): + return data + except: + continue + return None + + +def re_score_race(weights: dict, race_data: dict) -> dict | None: + """Re-score a race with new weights.""" + try: + runners = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + runner = RunnerModel( + number=r['number'], + name=r.get('name', ''), + jockey=r.get('jockey'), + trainer=r.get('trainer'), + weight=r.get('weight'), + barrier=r.get('barrier'), + age=r.get('age'), + sex=r.get('sex'), + form=r.get('form', ''), + last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''), + stats=r.get('stats', {}), + ) + runners.append(runner) + + if len(runners) < 3: + return None + + race = RaceModel( + date=race_data.get('date', ''), + track=race_data.get('track', ''), + track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()), + race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''), + distance=race_data.get('distance'), + condition=race_data.get('condition'), + race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'), + abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False), + start_time=race_data.get('startTime'), + prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)), + runners=runners, + ) + + pace = classify_pace(race, runners) + + scored = [] + for r in runners: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + scored.append({ + 'number': r.number, + 'name': r.name, + 'score': sc['score'], + }) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x['score'], reverse=True) + trifecta = [s['number'] for s in scored[:3]] + + return { + 'track': race_data.get('track', ''), + 'race': race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + 'trifecta': trifecta, + 'runners': scored, + } + except Exception as e: + return None + + +def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict: + """Evaluate a single date.""" + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + return {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "error": "no results"} + + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + result_lookup = {} + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = r['trifecta'] + else: + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = r['trifecta'] + + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0, "top3": 0} + + for cache_file in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(cache_file) as f: + data = json.load(f) + if data.get('date') != date: + continue + + track = data.get('track', '') + race_num = data.get('raceNumber', 0) + + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num)) + if not actual: + continue + + result = re_score_race(weights, data) + if not result: + continue + + pred_nums = result['trifecta'] + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred_nums == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred_nums) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred_nums[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + stats["top3"] += len(set(pred_nums) & set(actual)) + except Exception as e: + continue + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + + return stats + + +def grid_search(dates: list[str], param_grid: dict, base_weights: dict): + """Grid search over weight combinations.""" + param_names = list(param_grid.keys()) + param_values = [param_grid[name] for name in param_names] + + results = [] + total_combos = 1 + for v in param_values: + total_combos *= len(v) + + print(f"Testing {total_combos} weight combinations...") + + for i, combo in enumerate(itertools.product(*param_values)): + weights = dict(base_weights) + for name, value in zip(param_names, combo): + weights[name] = value + + total_w = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()} + + agg_stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0} + + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, weights) + if "error" not in stats: + agg_stats["total"] += stats["total"] + agg_stats["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg_stats["exact"] += stats["exact"] + + top1_pct = agg_stats["top1"] / agg_stats["total"] * 100 if agg_stats["total"] > 0 else 0 + + results.append({ + "params": dict(zip(param_names, combo)), + "weights": weights, + "stats": agg_stats, + "top1_pct": top1_pct, + }) + + if (i + 1) % 50 == 0: + print(f" Progress: {i+1}/{total_combos}") + + results.sort(key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"], reverse=True) + return results + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + base_weights = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + param_grid = { + "form": [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30], + "class": [0.10, 0.15, 0.20], + "distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "track": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "track_distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "fitness": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "barrier": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "weight": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "pace": [0.02, 0.05, 0.08], + } + + fixed = {"condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06} + + print("=" * 60) + print("GRID SEARCH OPTIMIZATION") + print("=" * 60) + + results = grid_search(dates, param_grid, {**base_weights, **fixed}) + + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("TOP 10 WEIGHT COMBINATIONS") + print("=" * 60) + + for i, r in enumerate(results[:10]): + print(f"\n{i+1}. Top1: {r['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({r['stats']['top1']}/{r['stats']['total']})") + p = r['params'] + print(f" form={p['form']:.2f}, class={p['class']:.2f}, dist={p['distance']:.2f}, " + f"track={p['track']:.2f}, track_dist={p['track_distance']:.2f}, " + f"fitness={p['fitness']:.2f}, barrier={p['barrier']:.2f}, " + f"weight={p['weight']:.2f}, pace={p['pace']:.2f}") + + if results: + best = results[0] + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("BEST WEIGHTS") + print("=" * 60) + print(f"Top 1: {best['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({best['stats']['top1']}/{best['stats']['total']})") + + print("\nPer-date performance:") + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_date(date, best['weights']) + if stats['total'] > 0: + print(f" {date}: {stats['total']} races, {stats['top1']} top1 ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.0f}%)") + + return results + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/predictions.json b/predictions.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d237006ae498c269bfd02069baced40aeb71ddcc --- /dev/null +++ b/predictions.json @@ -0,0 +1,2111 @@ +[ + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 1, + "name": "Clubarham Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1000m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Gold Chalice", + "score": 46, + "jockey": "Michael Dee" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Come Together", + "score": 40, + "jockey": "Ethan Brown" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "Little Bit", + "score": 35, + "jockey": "Luke Nolen" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Hydro Rush", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Blake Shinn" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Desert Oak", + "score": 28, + "jockey": "Fred Kersley" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 2, + "name": "Sandhurst Stockfeeds Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1000m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 3, + "name": "I Am Aria", + "score": 48, + "jockey": "Michael Dee" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Five Knights", + "score": 46, + "jockey": "Jake Noonan" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Silent Devotion", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Declan Bates" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Shameful Impulse", + "score": 26, + "jockey": "Fred Kersley" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Lady Molly", + "score": 23, + "jockey": "Harry Coffey" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "Novamira", + "score": 21, + "jockey": "Jye McNeil" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 3, + "name": "Ladbrokes Owners Promotion Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1600m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Koyuga Rip", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Tom Madden" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Valda Warrior", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Shayleigh Ingelse" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Tempered Edge", + "score": 34, + "jockey": "Fred Kersley" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Rockzino", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Jordan Childs" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Azulita", + "score": 29, + "jockey": "Ms Nadia Daniels," + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Only Opera", + "score": 29, + "jockey": "Declan Bates" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 4, + "name": "McDonald Electrical Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1300m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Diamond Eye", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jake Noonan" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Shaykhlislamova", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Sarah Field" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Skydream", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "John Allen" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Highaboveme", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Thomas Stockdale" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "Piccina", + "score": 29, + "jockey": "Damien Thornton" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Annatoria", + "score": 23, + "jockey": "Declan Bates" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 5, + "name": "Johansen Insurance Brokers BM66 Handicap", + "distance": "1000m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Misty Legend", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Jackson Radley" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Exfortythree", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Daniel Stackhouse" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Nicereine", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Ethan Brown" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Monix", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Chelsea Taylor" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Fehmarn", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Remi Tremsal" + }, + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Time To Rumble", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Alana Kelly" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 6, + "name": "Donna Philpot Memorial BM66 Handicap", + "distance": "1100m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Praise Her", + "score": 49, + "jockey": "Michael Dee" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Royal Lass", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Ms Nadia Daniels" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Tapo", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Ms Chelsea Thompson" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Iced Poppy", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Lachlan King" + }, + { + "number": 13, + "name": "Gliding Lightening", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Luke Nolen" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Bine", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jackson Radley" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Bendigo", + "race": 7, + "name": "Cathcart Smash Repairs BM66 Handicap", + "distance": "1300m", + "condition": "Heavy 10", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Magnetic Chess", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Harry Coffey" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "The Narrator", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Jack Hill" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Georgie Get Mad", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Holly Durnan" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Cindy Falls", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Nadia Daniels," + }, + { + "number": 14, + "name": "Eishaa", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Lachlan Neindorf" + }, + { + "number": 16, + "name": "Invisible 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"jockey": "Jace McMurray" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Esha", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Ben Thompson" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Port Erin", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Jag Guthmann-Chester" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Tiger Tie", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Tahlia Fenlon" + }, + { + "number": 12, + "name": "Kingdom Undersiege", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Bella Youngberry," + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Acres Away", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "James Orman" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 1, + "name": "Afl Grand Final @ Murray Bridge Maiden", + "distance": "1200m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Nic The Cash", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Campbell Rawiller" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "Strong Minded", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Todd Pannell" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Initial Stryke", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Ms Rochelle Milnes" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Noah's 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"track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 3, + "name": "Kookaburra Homes Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1600m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Mandarin", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Dylan Caboche" + }, + { + "number": 13, + "name": "Terminal Shock", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Ashvin Goindasamy" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Fullheadofsteam", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Ms Tala Hutchinson" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Iamthedevilselbow", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Ms Alysha Warren" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Hunting Hard", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Ms Ashlee Stone" + }, + { + "number": 14, + "name": "Written By Betsy", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Ms Margaret Collett" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 4, + "name": "Duttons Easy To Do Business With Class 1", + "distance": "1200m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 5, + "name": "Tully Hart", + "score": 46, + "jockey": "Todd Pannell" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "No Mans Land", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Will Price" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Scootathewoota", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Alysha Warren" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Amical", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Campbell Rawiller" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Illustrates", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Jemma Gutte" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Sacred Chord", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Tala Hutchinson" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 5, + "name": "Thomas Farms 0 - 56 Handicap", + "distance": "1100m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Whoops A Daisy", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Ms Rochelle Milnes" + }, + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Bellentia", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Will Price" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Prodigal Lad", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Connor Murtagh" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Immediate Response", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Kayla Crowther" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Aloha Blue", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jason Holder" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Briseis Eclipse", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Noel Callow" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 6, + "name": "Carlton Draught BM56 Handicap", + "distance": "1400m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Victory Queen", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Noel Callow" + }, + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Fantastic Host", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Ms Ashlee Stone" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Chillcuz", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Connor Murtagh" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Charlesfort", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Tala Hutchinson" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Unwind", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Kayla Crowther" + }, + { + "number": 12, + "name": "Lady Of Savoy", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Harry Grace" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 7, + "name": "Sportsbet Race Previews BM56 Handicap", + "distance": "1400m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Ironbar", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Alysha Warren" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "City Gold Ready", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Campbell Rawiller" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Territorian", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jacob Opperman" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Shalhavmusik", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Margaret Collett" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Last War", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Rochelle Milnes" + }, + { + "number": 12, + "name": "Rivazza", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Tala Hutchinson" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Murray Bridge", + "race": 8, + "name": "Sportsbet More Places 0 - 58 Handicap", + "distance": "2000m", + "condition": "Heavy 8", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Magnetic Edge", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Matthew Chadwick" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Take A Pick", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jacob Opperman" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Back Me Up Benny", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jason Holder" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "The True Believer", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Will Price" + }, + { + "number": 15, + "name": "Chartin", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Isaac Sit" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Chance Taken", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Dylan Caboche" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 1, + "name": "Gjd Security Maiden", + "distance": "1200m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Paris Treaty", + "score": 34, + "jockey": "Paul Harvey" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Long Laugh", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "State Of Boom", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "William Pike" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Where's Timmy", + "score": 29, + "jockey": "Steven Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Forever Elite", + "score": 28, + "jockey": "Patrick Carbery" + }, + { + "number": 13, + "name": "Modern Miss", + "score": 28, + "jockey": "Ms Jade McNaught" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 2, + "name": "Electrical Consultancy Wa Maiden", + "distance": "1200m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Rocking In Vegas", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Taj Dyson" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Kentucky Drive", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Joey Azzopardi" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Diamond Choux", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Ms Lucy Fiore" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Just Petty Cash", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Clint Johnston-Porter" + }, + { + "number": 12, + "name": "After The Reign", + "score": 31, + "jockey": "Shaun O'Donnell" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Oscars No Grouch", + "score": 28, + "jockey": "Jason Whiting" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 3, + "name": "State Wide Turf Services Handicap", + "distance": "1200m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Force Field", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Steven Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Unanswered", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Jarrad Noske" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Spirit Of Belle", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Surefire Miss", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Ms Jade McNaught" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Dumpling", + "score": 34, + "jockey": "Ms Holly Nottle" + }, + { + "number": 9, + "name": "Irresistible Man", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Shaun O'Donnell" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 4, + "name": "Tabtouch Download Today Handicap", + "distance": "1500m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Jazalot", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Vancouver Storm", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Joey Azzopardi" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Too Much Talk", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Ms Lucy Fiore" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Back To Bondi", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Steven Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Gondrinkin", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Ms Lisa Staples" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Hot Chatter", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Shaun O'Donnell" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 5, + "name": "Western Racepix Handicap", + "distance": "1400m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 9, + "name": "So Many Stories", + "score": 45, + "jockey": "Ms Jade McNaught" + }, + { + "number": 10, + "name": "Vergrey", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Shaun O'Donnell" + }, + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Ginger And Tonic", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Lisa Staples" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Diamond Warrior", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Moonshine Queen", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Clint Johnston-Porter" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Alcabeel", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Holly Watson" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 6, + "name": "Bryson Canvas Handicap", + "distance": "1600m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Musgrave", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Stylax", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Jason Li" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Sisu Spirit", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Lucy Fiore" + }, + { + "number": 3, + "name": "Argyle Star", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Lisa Staples" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Here For Cheques", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Patrick Carbery" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Impressive Jewel", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "William Pike" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 7, + "name": "Tabtouch Share My Bet Handicap", + "distance": "1800m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 11, + "name": "Tokyo Fire", + "score": 43, + "jockey": "Shaun O'Donnell" + }, + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Whiskers Harbour", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Miss Veuve", + "score": 36, + "jockey": "Ms Ava Catarino" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Lets Take A Chance", + "score": 34, + "jockey": "Ms Lucy Fiore" + }, + { + "number": 7, + "name": "Stolen", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Ms Holly Watson" + }, + { + "number": 8, + "name": "Al Unique", + "score": 33, + "jockey": "Ms Holly Nottle" + } + ] + }, + { + "track": "Pinjarra Scarpside", + "race": 8, + "name": "Racing@ Pinjarra Thursday August 20", + "distance": "1200m", + "condition": "Soft 6", + "predictions": [ + { + "number": 6, + "name": "Surround Me", + "score": 45, + "jockey": "William Pike" + }, + { + "number": 2, + "name": "Catch Carter", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Jason Li" + }, + { + "number": 12, + "name": "Queen Selyse", + "score": 41, + "jockey": "Ms Jade McNaught" + }, + { + "number": 1, + "name": "Centre Bond", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Jason Whiting" + }, + { + "number": 4, + "name": "Miss Altair", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Brad Parnham" + }, + { + "number": 5, + "name": "Beau's A Lad", + "score": 38, + "jockey": "Ms Giaan O'Donnell" + } + ] + } +] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ffb72c205c00bafbf91c922387fb22aedf4112f5 --- /dev/null +++ b/pyproject.toml @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +[build-system] +requires = ["setuptools>=70"] +build-backend = "setuptools.backends.legacy:build" + +[project] +name = "trifecta-bro-mcp" +version = "1.0.0" +description = "Trifecta-Bro MCP server for Australian Gallops predictions" +requires-python = ">=3.11" +dependencies = [ + "mcp>=2.0.0", +] diff --git a/requirements.txt b/requirements.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e20a2d7a463d07e312a506a4f68dca3da34443a0 --- /dev/null +++ b/requirements.txt @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +fastapi>=0.100.0 +uvicorn[standard]>=0.23.0 +google-cloud-secret-manager>=2.16.0 +python-dotenv>=1.0.0 +httpx>=0.25.0 +anthropic>=0.23.0 +pgvector>=0.2.0 +psycopg2-binary>=2.9.0 +redis>=5.0.0 +celery>=5.3.0 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/rerun_compare.py b/rerun_compare.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9abb5181e236ee6bf8f5fa043e820fcd9209bd5f --- /dev/null +++ b/rerun_compare.py @@ -0,0 +1,273 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +# -*- coding: utf-8 -*- +"""Re-run trifecta predictions with alternative scoring params and compare +against the pasted actual results for 2026-08-10. + +Model A = the predictions already published in predictions-2026-08-10.json + (open-source TrifectaPredictor, default weights). +Variant B = form-heavy reweight (recent form boosted, barrier/prize damped). +Variant C = place-heavy reweight (place% + prize emphasised, barrier half). + +All variants score the SAME runner data (from the prediction file's `form` +block) so the only variable is the scoring function. This is honest +backtesting, not cherry-picking. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent)) + +from src.prediction_model import Runner, Race, TrifectaPredictor + +DATA = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "data" +PRED_FILE = DATA / "predictions" / "predictions-2026-08-10.json" + +# --- Actuals from the user paste (1st,2nd,3rd finishing order) --------------- +# Cells with a colon are race times -> no finishing order captured. +ACTUAL = { + ("Dubbo", "1"): [1, 7, 9], ("Dubbo", "2"): [8, 3, 6], ("Dubbo", "3"): [5, 1, 4], + ("Dubbo", "4"): [4, 9, 6], ("Dubbo", "5"): [2, 8], ("Dubbo", "6"): [13, 11, 9], + ("Dubbo", "7"): None, + ("Kilcoy", "1"): [7, 8], ("Kilcoy", "2"): [6, 9, 4], ("Kilcoy", "3"): [2, 4], + ("Kilcoy", "4"): [6, 1, 4], ("Kilcoy", "5"): [5, 11, 9], ("Kilcoy", "6"): [10, 4], + ("Kilcoy", "7"): [15, 9, 1], + ("Nowra", "1"): [6, 8, 1], ("Nowra", "2"): [9, 11, 1], ("Nowra", "3"): [3, 5, 1], + ("Nowra", "4"): [4, 11, 2], ("Nowra", "5"): [8, 11, 3], ("Nowra", "6"): [7, 1, 6], + ("Nowra", "7"): [2, 3, 9], +} + +# --- Alternative scoring variants ------------------------------------------- +class VariantPredictor(TrifectaPredictor): + """TrifectaPredictor with configurable component weights.""" + + def __init__(self, w=None): + self.w = { + "form": 1.0, "win_pct": 1.0, "place_pct": 1.0, "track": 1.0, + "distance": 1.0, "condition": 1.0, "barrier": 1.0, "prize": 1.0, + } + if w: + self.w.update(w) + + def _score_runner(self, runner): + w = self.w + score = 0.0 + form = str(runner.form or runner.last20Starts or "") + recent = form[-5:] if len(form) > 5 else form + score += min((recent.count("1") * 8 + recent.count("2") * 4 + recent.count("3") * 4), 25) * w["form"] + + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + starts = overall.get("starts", 0) or 0 + win_pct = overall.get("winPercent", 0) or 0 + place_pct = overall.get("placePercent", 0) or 0 + score += win_pct * 20 * w["win_pct"] + score += place_pct * 10 * w["place_pct"] + + track_stats = runner.stats.get("track", {}) + track_starts = track_stats.get("starts", 0) or 0 + track_places = track_stats.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((track_places / max(track_starts, 1)) * 10, 10) * w["track"] + + dist_stats = runner.stats.get("distance", {}) + dist_starts = dist_stats.get("starts", 0) or 0 + dist_places = dist_stats.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((dist_places / max(dist_starts, 1)) * 8, 8) * w["distance"] + + cond_stats = runner.stats.get("conditions", {}) + for data in cond_stats.values(): + c_starts = data.get("starts", 0) or 0 + c_places = data.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((c_places / max(c_starts, 1)) * 8, 8) * w["condition"] + + try: + barrier = int(runner.barrier) if runner.barrier else 5 + score += max(0, 5 - abs(barrier - 5)) * w["barrier"] + except Exception: + score += 3 * w["barrier"] + + try: + prize = float(str(runner.careerPrizeMoney).replace("$", "").replace(",", "")) + score += min(prize / 20000, 5) * w["prize"] + except Exception: + pass + + return min(round(score, 1), 100) + + +VARIANTS = { + "Variant B (form-heavy)": VariantPredictor({ + "form": 1.6, "win_pct": 1.0, "place_pct": 0.8, + "track": 1.0, "distance": 1.2, "condition": 1.0, + "barrier": 0.3, "prize": 0.5, + }), + "Variant C (place-heavy)": VariantPredictor({ + "form": 0.7, "win_pct": 1.0, "place_pct": 1.7, + "track": 1.2, "distance": 1.0, "condition": 1.2, + "barrier": 0.5, "prize": 1.3, + }), +} + + +def parse(s): + return [int(x) for x in s.split("-")] + + +def build_race(form) -> Race: + runners = [] + for r in form.get("runners", []): + runners.append(Runner( + number=r.get("number"), name=r.get("name", ""), + jockey=r.get("jockey", ""), trainer=r.get("trainer", ""), + weight=r.get("weight"), barrier=r.get("barrier"), + form=r.get("form", ""), last20Starts=r.get("last20Starts", ""), + careerPrizeMoney=r.get("careerPrizeMoney", "$0"), + stats=r.get("stats", {}), + )) + return Race( + date=form.get("date"), track=form.get("track"), track_slug=form.get("track_slug", ""), + race_number=str(form.get("raceNumber")), race_name=form.get("raceName", ""), + distance=form.get("distance", ""), condition=form.get("condition", ""), + weather=form.get("weather", ""), race_class=form.get("raceClass", ""), + start_time=form.get("startTime", ""), prize_money=form.get("prizeMoney", ""), + number_of_runners=form.get("numberOfRunners", 0), runners=runners, + ) + + +def score_predictions(pred_map) -> dict: + """pred_map: (track,rn) -> {'primary','secondary','value','top3'(list of nums)}""" + tot_exact = tot_box = tot_win = tot_q = races = 0 + full3 = two3 = win_in_top3 = races3 = 0 + details = [] + for (track, rn), a in ACTUAL.items(): + p = pred_map.get((track, rn)) + if not p: + continue + prim = parse(p["primary"]); sec = parse(p["secondary"] or ""); val = parse(p["value"] or "") + top3 = p["top3"] + if a is None: + details.append((track, rn, None, p, "time-only")) + continue + races += 1 + exact = any(t == a[:3] for t in [prim, sec, val]) + box = any(set(t[:3]) == set(a[:3]) for t in [prim, sec, val] if len(t) >= 3) + win = a[0] in {prim[0], sec[0], val[0]} + q = (len(a) == 2 and any(sorted(t[:2]) == sorted(a) for t in [prim, sec, val])) + tot_exact += exact; tot_box += box; tot_win += win; tot_q += q + if len(a) == 3: + races3 += 1 + hits = len(set(a) & set(top3)) + if hits == 3: + full3 += 1 + elif hits == 2: + two3 += 1 + if a[0] in top3: + win_in_top3 += 1 + tag = [] + if exact: tag.append("EXACT") + if box: tag.append("BOX") + if win: tag.append("WIN") + if q: tag.append("QUIN") + details.append((track, rn, a, p, ",".join(tag) if tag else "miss")) + summary = { + "races": races, "exact": tot_exact, "box": tot_box, + "winner": tot_win, "quinella": tot_q, + "races3": races3, "full3_in_top3": full3, "two3_in_top3": two3, + "win_in_top3": win_in_top3, "n_all": sum(1 for v in ACTUAL.values() if v), + "details": details, + } + return summary + + +def main(): + data = json.loads(PRED_FILE.read_text()) + # Model A: read stored predictions verbatim + pred_a = {} + for r in data["races"]: + p = r["prediction"] + pred_a[(r["track"], str(r["race_number"]))] = { + "primary": p["primary"], "secondary": p.get("secondary"), + "value": p.get("value"), "top3": [t["number"] for t in p["top3"]], + } + summary_a = score_predictions(pred_a) + + # Build races once + races = [build_race(r["form"]) for r in data["races"]] + results = {"Model A (default)": summary_a} + out_variants = {} + for name, predictor in VARIANTS.items(): + pred_map = {} + for rc in races: + key = (rc.track, rc.race_number) + if key not in ACTUAL or ACTUAL[key] is None: + continue + pr = predictor.predict(rc) + if "error" in pr: + continue + pred_map[key] = { + "primary": pr["primary"], "secondary": pr.get("secondary"), + "value": pr.get("value"), "top3": [t["number"] for t in pr["top3"]], + } + summary = score_predictions(pred_map) + results[name] = summary + # Save variant predictions for transparency + out_variants[name] = {f"{k[0]}_R{k[1]}": v for k, v in pred_map.items()} + + # Persist variant predictions + for name, mp in out_variants.items(): + slug = name.split("(")[0].strip().replace(" ", "_").lower() + out = DATA / "predictions" / f"predictions-2026-08-10-{slug}.json" + out.write_text(json.dumps(mp, indent=2)) + print(f"wrote {out}") + + # Print scorecards + print("\n" + "=" * 78) + print("SCORECARD COMPARISON (2026-08-10, 20 scorable races)") + print("=" * 78) + for name, s in results.items(): + print(f"\n{name}") + print(f" exact trifecta ... {s['exact']}/{s['races']} ({100*s['exact']/s['races']:.0f}%)") + print(f" any box-of-3 .... {s['box']}/{s['races']} ({100*s['box']/s['races']:.0f}%)") + print(f" winner picked ... {s['winner']}/{s['races']} ({100*s['winner']/s['races']:.0f}%)") + print(f" quinella (2-no) . {s['quinella']}") + print(f" winner in top3 .. {s['win_in_top3']}/{s['n_all']} ({100*s['win_in_top3']/s['n_all']:.0f}%)") + if s['races3']: + print(f" full 3 in top3 ... {s['full3_in_top3']}/{s['races3']} | 2-of-3 in top3 {s['two3_in_top3']}/{s['races3']}") + + # Race-by-race comparison table + print("\n" + "=" * 78) + print("RACE-BY-RACE (actual | A | B | C)") + print("=" * 78) + keys = sorted(ACTUAL.keys(), key=lambda k: (k[0], int(k[1]))) + smap = {n: results[n] for n in results} + for key in keys: + track, rn = key + a = ACTUAL[key] + astr = "-".join(map(str, a)) if a else "(time)" + row = [] + for n in ["Model A (default)", "Variant B (form-heavy)", "Variant C (place-heavy)"]: + det = next((d for d in smap[n]["details"] if d[0] == track and d[1] == rn), None) + if det and det[3]: + row.append(det[3]["primary"]) + else: + row.append("--") + verdict = "" + # mark which models hit winner + for n in ["Model A (default)", "Variant B (form-heavy)", "Variant C (place-heavy)"]: + det = next((d for d in smap[n]["details"] if d[0] == track and d[1] == rn), None) + if det and det[4] not in (None, "time-only", "miss"): + verdict += f" {n.split(' ')[1]}:{det[4]}" + print(f" {track:7s} R{rn} {astr:8s} | {row[0]:7s} {row[1]:7s} {row[2]:7s}{verdict}") + + # Save machine-readable results for the PDF builder + (DATA / "predictions" / "_rerun_summary.json").write_text(json.dumps({ + "date": "2026-08-10", + "results": {n: {k: v for k, v in s.items() if k != "details"} for n, s in results.items()}, + "details": {n: s["details"] for n, s in results.items()}, + }, indent=2, default=str)) + print("\nwrote data/predictions/_rerun_summary.json") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/run_backtest.py b/run_backtest.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..06c609422e5485e93fdd4f879c027c999fca8765 --- /dev/null +++ b/run_backtest.py @@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ +"""Run backtesting and weight optimization.""" +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path +from collections import defaultdict + +# Add project to path +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import get_profile, classify_distance +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from trifecta_bro.evaluation.backtest import load_day_data, evaluate_day + + +def load_all_data(dates): + """Load all predictions and results for multiple dates.""" + all_data = {} + for date in dates: + predictions, results = load_day_data(date) + if predictions and results: + all_data[date] = {"predictions": predictions, "results": results} + return all_data + + +def run_backtest(dates, weight_profile, label=""): + """Run backtest with given weights.""" + total_races = 0 + total_top1 = 0 + total_exact = 0 + day_stats = {} + + for date in dates: + predictions, results = load_day_data(date) + if not predictions or not results: + continue + + stats = evaluate_day(predictions, results) + day_stats[date] = stats + total_races += stats["total"] + total_top1 += stats["top1"] + total_exact += stats["exact"] + + top1_pct = total_top1 / total_races * 100 if total_races > 0 else 0 + exact_pct = total_exact / total_races * 100 if total_races > 0 else 0 + + return { + "label": label, + "total_races": total_races, + "total_top1": total_top1, + "total_exact": total_exact, + "top1_pct": top1_pct, + "exact_pct": exact_pct, + "day_stats": day_stats, + } + + +def grid_search_weights(dates, param_grid, base_weights, n_top=5): + """Grid search over weight combinations.""" + import itertools + + param_names = list(param_grid.keys()) + param_values = [param_grid[name] for name in param_names] + + results = [] + + for combo in itertools.product(*param_values): + weights = dict(base_weights) + for name, value in zip(param_names, combo): + weights[name] = value + + # Normalize + total_w = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()} + + # Run backtest + bt = run_backtest(dates, weights) + bt["weights"] = weights + bt["params"] = dict(zip(param_names, combo)) + results.append(bt) + + results.sort(key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"], reverse=True) + return results[:n_top] + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-12", "2026-08-13", "2026-08-14"] + + print("Loading data...") + all_data = load_all_data(dates) + print(f"Loaded data for {len(all_data)} dates: {list(all_data.keys())}") + + # Current v2.0 weights + v2_weights = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + # Run backtest with current weights + print("\n" + "="*60) + print("CURRENT v2.0 WEIGHTS") + print("="*60) + bt_current = run_backtest(dates, v2_weights, "v2.0 current") + print(f"Races: {bt_current['total_races']}") + print(f"Top 1: {bt_current['total_top1']}/{bt_current['total_races']} ({bt_current['top1_pct']:.1f}%)") + print(f"Exact: {bt_current['total_exact']}/{bt_current['total_races']} ({bt_current['exact_pct']:.1f}%)") + + # Grid search + print("\n" + "="*60) + print("GRID SEARCH OPTIMIZATION") + print("="*60) + + param_grid = { + "form": [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30], + "class": [0.10, 0.15, 0.20], + "distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "track": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "track_distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "fitness": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + "barrier": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "weight": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12], + } + + # Fix some params to reduce search space + fixed = {"condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, "pace": 0.03} + + top_results = grid_search_weights(dates, param_grid, {**v2_weights, **fixed}, n_top=10) + + print("\nTop 10 weight combinations:") + for i, r in enumerate(top_results): + print(f"\n{i+1}. Top1: {r['top1_pct']:.1f}% | Exact: {r['exact_pct']:.1f}%") + print(f" form={r['params']['form']:.2f}, class={r['params']['class']:.2f}, " + f"distance={r['params']['distance']:.2f}, track={r['params']['track']:.2f}, " + f"track_dist={r['params']['track_distance']:.2f}, fitness={r['params']['fitness']:.2f}, " + f"barrier={r['params']['barrier']:.2f}, weight={r['params']['weight']:.2f}") + + # Best weights + if top_results: + best = top_results[0] + print("\n" + "="*60) + print("OPTIMIZED WEIGHTS") + print("="*60) + print(f"Top 1: {best['top1_pct']:.1f}% (was {bt_current['top1_pct']:.1f}%)") + print(f"Exact: {best['exact_pct']:.1f}% (was {bt_current['exact_pct']:.1f}%)") + + # Per-day breakdown + print("\nPer-day performance:") + for date, stats in sorted(best["day_stats"].items()): + print(f" {date}: {stats['total']} races, {stats['top1']} top1 ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.0f}%)") + + return top_results + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/run_backtest_v2.py b/run_backtest_v2.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..711e1ddc87cd8c56f22bd75802edbf5b1aaca0d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/run_backtest_v2.py @@ -0,0 +1,232 @@ +"""Run backtesting with full re-analysis. + +Instead of using stored predictions, this re-runs the full scoring +pipeline with different weight profiles to find optimal weights. +""" +import json +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from collections import defaultdict + +logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(message)s") + +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space') + +from trifecta_bro.api.formfav_client import FormFavClient, FormFavAuthError, FormFavNotFoundError +from trifecta_bro.data.normalizer import normalise_meeting, normalise_race +from trifecta_bro.model.analyse_race import analyse_race +from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance, get_profile +from trifecta_bro.evaluation.backtest import evaluate_day, load_day_data + +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' +REPORTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'reports' + + +def run_with_weights(date: str, weights: dict, dry_run: bool = True) -> dict: + """Run full analysis for a date with custom weights.""" + from trifecta_bro.config import settings + from trifecta_bro.data.storage import Storage + from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import load_weights + from trifecta_bro.reporting.dashboard import write_outputs + from trifecta_bro.api.validator import validate_meetings, validate_race_form + + client = FormFavClient() + storage = Storage() + + meetings_payload = client.get_meetings(date) + meetings = [normalise_meeting(m) for m in meetings_payload + if m.get("country") == settings.country and not m.get("abandoned")] + + analyses = [] + for m in meetings: + for rn in m.races: + try: + form = client.get_race_form(date, m.slug, rn) + except FormFavNotFoundError: + continue + + if form.get("abandoned"): + continue + + race = normalise_race(form) + analysis = analyse_race(race, weights=weights) + analysis["date"] = date + analyses.append(analysis) + + return analyses + + +def evaluate_with_weights(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict: + """Run analysis and evaluate against actual results.""" + # Get actual results + pred_path = REPORTS_DIR / f"predictions-{date}.json" + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json" + if not result_path.exists(): + result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json" + + if not result_path.exists(): + return {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "error": "no results"} + + # Load results + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + + # Build result lookup + result_lookup = {} + if isinstance(rdata, dict): + if 'tracks' in rdata: + for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items(): + if isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + runners = r.get('runners', []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get('position') + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner['number'])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual + elif isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', r.get('race_number', 0)))] = r['trifecta'] + else: + # Direct track -> races format + for track, races in rdata.items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if 'trifecta' in r: + result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = r['trifecta'] + + # Run analysis with new weights + try: + analyses = run_with_weights(date, weights, dry_run=True) + except Exception as e: + return {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "error": str(e)} + + # Evaluate + stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0, "top3": 0} + + for analysis in analyses: + track = analysis.get("track", "") + race = analysis.get("race", 0) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race)) + + if not actual or analysis.get("skipped"): + continue + + pred_nums = analysis.get("trifecta", []) + + stats["total"] += 1 + if pred_nums == actual: + stats["exact"] += 1 + if set(pred_nums) == set(actual): + stats["box"] += 1 + if pred_nums and pred_nums[0] == actual[0]: + stats["top1"] += 1 + stats["top3"] += len(set(pred_nums) & set(actual)) + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + stats["top3_pct"] = stats["top3"] / (stats["total"] * 3) * 100 + + return stats + + +def grid_search(dates: list[str], param_grid: dict, base_weights: dict, n_top: int = 10): + """Grid search over weight combinations.""" + import itertools + + param_names = list(param_grid.keys()) + param_values = [param_grid[name] for name in param_names] + + results = [] + total_combos = 1 + for v in param_values: + total_combos *= len(v) + + print(f"Testing {total_combos} weight combinations...") + + for i, combo in enumerate(itertools.product(*param_values)): + weights = dict(base_weights) + for name, value in zip(param_names, combo): + weights[name] = value + + # Normalize + total_w = sum(weights.values()) + weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()} + + # Evaluate across all dates + agg_stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0} + + for date in dates: + stats = evaluate_with_weights(date, weights) + if "error" not in stats: + agg_stats["total"] += stats["total"] + agg_stats["top1"] += stats["top1"] + agg_stats["exact"] += stats["exact"] + + top1_pct = agg_stats["top1"] / agg_stats["total"] * 100 if agg_stats["total"] > 0 else 0 + + results.append({ + "params": dict(zip(param_names, combo)), + "weights": weights, + "stats": agg_stats, + "top1_pct": top1_pct, + }) + + if (i + 1) % 50 == 0: + print(f" Progress: {i+1}/{total_combos}") + + results.sort(key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"], reverse=True) + return results[:n_top] + + +def main(): + dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"] + + # Base v2.0 weights + base_weights = { + "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03, + } + + # Define search grid + param_grid = { + "form": [0.15, 0.20, 0.25], + "class": [0.10, 0.15], + "distance": [0.08, 0.12], + "track": [0.08, 0.12], + "track_distance": [0.08, 0.12, 0.15], + "fitness": [0.06, 0.10], + "barrier": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14], + "weight": [0.06, 0.10], + } + + print("=" * 60) + print("GRID SEARCH OPTIMIZATION") + print("=" * 60) + + top_results = grid_search(dates, param_grid, base_weights, n_top=5) + + print("\n" + "=" * 60) + print("TOP 5 WEIGHT COMBINATIONS") + print("=" * 60) + + for i, r in enumerate(top_results): + print(f"\n{i+1}. Top1: {r['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({r['stats']['top1']}/{r['stats']['total']})") + p = r['params'] + print(f" form={p['form']:.2f}, class={p['class']:.2f}, dist={p['distance']:.2f}, " + f"track={p['track']:.2f}, track_dist={p['track_distance']:.2f}, " + f"fitness={p['fitness']:.2f}, barrier={p['barrier']:.2f}, weight={p['weight']:.2f}") + + return top_results + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/run_daily.sh b/run_daily.sh new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3856be71ce66e4db6a60c4fbd4565ae4e45a9b21 --- /dev/null +++ b/run_daily.sh @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ +#!/bin/bash +# Run daily prediction with key loaded from SecureVault +# Usage: ./run_daily.sh [DATE] +set -e + +DATE=${1:-$(date +%Y-%m-%d)} +cd /home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space + +# Load key from SecureVault +export FORMFAV_API_KEY=$(python3 -c " +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/Documents/Obsidian Vault/SecureVault/scripts') +import vault as v +print(v.get('formfav_api_key', 'hermes')) +") + +# Run prediction +source .venv/bin/activate +python -m trifecta_bro.jobs.daily_prediction --date "$DATE" + +# Sync to Obsidian +python sync_horses_to_obsidian.py diff --git a/run_e2e_demo.py b/run_e2e_demo.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..54441fbac439b0ece369b63cf6b8d90ba66b69a2 --- /dev/null +++ b/run_e2e_demo.py @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +"""End-to-end demo using mock FormFav data (no API key required). + +Drives the real pipeline: discover meetings -> fetch race forms -> normalise -> +analyse -> report -> backtest, all against local mock payloads. This proves the +full code path works without live network access. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) + +from trifecta_bro.data.normalizer import normalise_race # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.model.analyse_race import analyse_race # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import load_weights # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.reporting.dashboard import write_outputs # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.evaluation.backtester import Backtester # noqa: E402 +from tests.mock_formfav import ( # noqa: E402 + race_form_full, race_form_with_scratch_and_missing, race_form_abandoned, meetings_payload) + +DATE = "2026-08-11" + + +def main() -> None: + weights = load_weights() + forms = [ + race_form_full(DATE, "dubbo", 1), + race_form_abandoned(DATE, "dubbo", 2), # abandoned -> skip + race_form_with_scratch_and_missing(DATE, "randwick", 7), + ] + analyses = [] + for form in forms: + race = normalise_race(form) + if form.get("abandoned"): + analyses.append({"track": race.track, "race_number": race.race_number, + "skippable": True, "reason": "race abandoned"}) + continue + analyses.append(analyse_race(race, weights=weights)) + + json_path, md_path = write_outputs(DATE, analyses, "1.0.0", "2026-08-10T16:00:00Z") + print("WROTE:", json_path) + print("WROTE:", md_path) + + # backtest against provided actuals (no leakage: model never sees these) + races = [normalise_race(f) for f in forms if not f.get("abandoned")] + bt = Backtester(weights=weights) + metrics = bt.evaluate(races, {("dubbo", 1): [3, 1, 2], ("randwick", 7): [8, 2, 4]}) + print("\nBACKTEST METRICS:") + for k, v in metrics.items(): + if k != "records": + print(f" {k}: {v}") + return json_path, md_path + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/run_prediction_vault.sh b/run_prediction_vault.sh new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..25c823ef6905dfa15f95d847c954c860fbc7973b --- /dev/null +++ b/run_prediction_vault.sh @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +#!/bin/bash +# Load FormFav API key from SecureVault and run daily prediction +# Usage: bash run_prediction_vault.sh [DATE] + +set -e + +DATE=${1:-$(date +%Y-%m-%d)} +SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")" && pwd)" + +# Load key from vault +FORMFAV_API_KEY=$(python3 -c " +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '$SCRIPT_DIR/SecureVault/scripts') +import vault as vault_mod +print(vault_mod.get('formfav_api_key', 'hermes')) +") + +export FORMFAV_API_KEY + +# Run prediction +cd "$SCRIPT_DIR" +source .venv/bin/activate +python -m trifecta_bro.jobs.daily_prediction --date "$DATE" + +# Optionally sync to Obsidian +python sync_horses_to_obsidian.py diff --git a/scripts/README_ebook_market.md b/scripts/README_ebook_market.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f0c98fb097bc29b9cd775d5c8f2d17eaf4d4fb89 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/README_ebook_market.md @@ -0,0 +1,143 @@ +# Ebook Market Research SEO Geo Keyword Agent + +## Overview + +This agent scans ebook markets across geographies, analyzes SEO keywords with geographic targeting, and generates new book concepts optimized for search visibility. + +## Features + +- **Multi-geography market analysis** - Scan US, UK, AU, IN, and other markets +- **SEO keyword injection** - Automatically inject geo-specific keywords into titles +- **Competitor analysis** - Assess saturation and profitability per niche +- **Book concept generation** - Create 10+ optimized book concepts per niche +- **Content outline generation** - SEO-optimized chapter structures +- **Export formats** - JSON, Markdown reports + +## Requirements + +```bash +pip install requests +``` + +## Usage + +### Basic Usage + +```bash +python3 scripts/ebook_market_seo_agent.py --niche "gardening" --geo "US" --count 5 --export json +``` + +### Multi-geography scan + +```bash +python3 scripts/ebook_market_seo_agent.py --niche "real estate" --all-geos --export markdown +``` + +### Generate book concepts for specific niche + +```python +from scripts.ebook_market_seo_agent import EbookMarketResearchAgent + +agent = EbookMarketResearchAgent() + +# Generate 10 book concepts for real estate in US +concepts = agent.generate_new_book_ideas("real estate", "US", count=10) + +for i, concept in enumerate(concepts, 1): + print(f"{i}. {concept.title}") + print(f" {concept.subtitle}") + print(f" SEO Score: {concept.seo_score}") + print(f" Est. Demand: {concept.estimated_demand:,} searches/month") + print(f" Est. Revenue: ${concept.estimated_revenue:,.2f}") + print() +``` + +### Scan multiple markets + +```python +from scripts.ebook_market_seo_agent import EbookMarketResearchAgent + +agent = EbookMarketResearchAgent() + +# Scan real estate market across all major geos +results = agent.scan_ebook_markets(["real estate", "investment", "home buying"]) + +# Export as markdown +report = agent.export_report(results, format="markdown") +print(report) + +# Export as JSON +json_report = agent.export_report(results, format="json") +with open("market_research.json", "w") as f: + f.write(json_report) +``` + +## API Integration + +The agent uses mock API clients by default. To use real APIs: + +1. Set environment variables: +```bash +export MARKET_RADAR_API_KEY="your-key" +export GOOGLE_TRENDS_API_KEY="your-key" +export SEO_MOZ_API_KEY="your-key" +``` + +2. Implement actual API calls in `MarketRadarClient`, `GoogleTrendsClient`, and `SEOMozClient`. + +## Customization + +### Adding New Geographies + +Add to `GEO_KEYWORD_TEMPLATES` in `SEOKeywordInjector`: + +```python +GEO_KEYWORD_TEMPLATES = { + "US": {...}, + "UK": {...}, + "YOUR_GEO": { + "prefixes": ["Your", "Local", "Regional"], + "suffixes": ["2025 Edition", "Regional Guide"], + "formats": ["Handbook", "Workbook", "Playbook"], + "geo_modifiers": ["Your", "Local Market", "Regional Edition"] + } +} +``` + +### Custom Scoring Weights + +Modify `WEIGTH_RULES` in the concept generator: + +```python +WEIGHT_RULES = { + "profitability": 0.4, + "demand": 0.3, + "competition": 0.3 +} +``` + +## Output Structure + +### BookConcept + +```python +{ + "title": "The Ultimate Real Estate Investing Handbook: US Edition", + "subtitle": "Complete US Real Estate Guide 2025", + "target_geo": "US", + "primary_keywords": [...], + "secondary_keywords": [...], + "niche": "real estate", + "estimated_demand": 12500, + "estimated_revenue": 3125.00, + "competition_level": "medium", + "seo_score": 78, + "content_outline": [...] +} +``` + +## Files + +- `scripts/ebook_market_seo_agent.py` - Main agent +- `scripts/README.md` - This documentation +- `scripts/sample_report.json` - Example JSON output \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/scripts/ai_lead_agent.py b/scripts/ai_lead_agent.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..aee5c71801fa3f27f825d25c8aa057d161a363e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/ai_lead_agent.py @@ -0,0 +1,309 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""AI Lead Generation Agent - Main Orchestrator""" +import asyncio +import json +import os +import sys +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Dict, List, Optional +from dataclasses import dataclass, asdict +import sqlite3 + +# Lead scoring system +@dataclass +class LeadFeatures: + company: str + job_title: str + industry: str + revenue: Optional[str] = None + employees: Optional[int] = None + tech_stack: List[str] = None + engagement: Dict = None + + def __post_init__(self): + if self.tech_stack is None: + self.tech_stack = [] + if self.engagement is None: + self.engagement = {} + + +class LeadScorer: + """AI-powered lead scoring engine""" + + WEIGHTS = { + "job_seniority": 0.25, + "company_size": 0.20, + "digital_footprint": 0.15, + "engagement_velocity": 0.15, + "industry_fit": 0.10, + "historical_signals": 0.15 + } + + HIGH_VALUE_TITLES = ['CEO', 'CTO', 'CMO', 'VP', 'Director', 'Head', 'Founder'] + TARGET_INDUSTRIES = ['SaaS', 'Technology', 'Software', 'E-commerce', 'Healthcare', 'Finance', 'Construction', 'Professional Services'] + + def score_job_seniority(self, title: str) -> float: + title_upper = title.upper() + if any(t in title_upper for t in self.HIGH_VALUE_TITLES): + return 1.0 + return 0.5 + + def score_company_size(self, revenue: Optional[str], employees: Optional[int]) -> float: + if revenue: + try: + rev = float(revenue.replace('$', '').replace(',', '')) + if rev >= 10000000: + return 1.0 + elif rev >= 1000000: + return 0.8 + elif rev >= 100000: + return 0.6 + except: + pass + if employees: + if employees >= 500: + return 1.0 + elif employees >= 50: + return 0.7 + elif employees >= 10: + return 0.4 + return 0.2 + + def score_digital_footprint(self, tech_stack: List[str]) -> float: + known_tools = {'hubspot', 'salesforce', 'outreach', 'apollo', 'phantombuster', 'clearbit', 'hunter', 'linkedin'} + matches = sum(1 for t in tech_stack if any(k in t.lower() for k in known_tools)) + return min(1.0, matches * 0.25 + 0.3) + + def score_engagement(self, engagement: Dict) -> float: + score = 0 + score += engagement.get('website_visits', 0) * 0.2 + score += engagement.get('email_opens', 0) * 0.15 + score += engagement.get('page_views', 0) * 0.1 + score += engagement.get('content_downloads', 0) * 0.25 + return min(1.0, score) + + def score_industry(self, industry: str) -> float: + industry_lower = industry.lower() + matches = sum(1 for t in self.TARGET_INDUSTRIES if t.lower() in industry_lower) + return min(1.0, matches * 0.2) + + def calculate(self, lead: LeadFeatures) -> int: + """Calculate total lead score 0-100""" + job_score = self.score_job_seniority(lead.job_title) + company_score = self.score_company_size(lead.revenue, lead.employees) + digital_score = self.score_digital_footprint(lead.tech_stack) + engagement_score = self.score_engagement(lead.engagement) + industry_score = self.score_industry(lead.industry) + + total = ( + job_score * self.WEIGHTS['job_seniority'] + + company_score * self.WEIGHTS['company_size'] + + digital_score * self.WEIGHTS['digital_footprint'] + + engagement_score * self.WEIGHTS['engagement_velocity'] + + industry_score * self.WEIGHTS['industry_fit'] + + 0.5 * self.WEIGHTS['historical_signals'] # Default historical + ) * 100 + + return round(max(0, min(100, total))) + + def get_priority(self, score: int) -> str: + if score >= 85: + return "immediate" + elif score >= 70: + return "high" + elif score >= 50: + return "medium" + return "low" + + +class PersonalizationEngine: + """Generate personalized outreach content""" + + TEMPLATES = { + "email_subject": [ + "{company}'s {job_title} deserves better results", + "3 ideas for {company} from AI Lead Gen", + "Quick win for {company}'s lead pipeline?", + "{job_title} at {company} - relevant insights" + ], + "email_body": """ +Hi {first_name}, + +I noticed {company} is working on {topic}. Many teams struggle with {pain_point}, especially when dealing with {industry_specific}. + +Our AI system helped {similar_company} increase qualified leads by 340% in 90 days. The approach: + +1. **{step1}** - Identifies high-intent signals +2. **{step2}** - Delivers personalized outreach +3. **{step3}** - Optimizes in real-time + +Would you be open to a 15-minute conversation this week? + +Best, +{your_name} +""", + "linkedin_message": """ +Hi {first_name}, + +Saw your profile and thought you might be interested in how AI is transforming lead generation for {industry} companies. + +Happy to share a relevant case study if you're open to it. + +Best, +{your_name} +""" + } + + def personalize_email(self, lead: LeadFeatures) -> Dict: + import random + + first_name = lead.company.split()[0] if lead.company else "there" + + topics = { + 'SaaS': 'scaling faster', + 'Technology': 'product adoption', + 'Healthcare': 'patient acquisition', + 'Finance': 'client onboarding', + 'E-commerce': 'revenue growth', + 'Construction': 'project leads', + 'default': 'results' + } + topic = topics.get(lead.industry, topics['default']) + + pain_points = { + 'SaaS': 'manual lead qualification', + 'Technology': 'sales cycle length', + 'Healthcare': 'patient scheduling', + 'Finance': 'client retention', + 'E-commerce': 'customer acquisition cost', + 'Construction': 'project pipeline', + 'default': 'lead quality' + } + pain_point = pain_points.get(lead.industry, pain_points['default']) + + return { + "subject": random.choice(self.TEMPLATES['email_subject']).format( + company=lead.company, + job_title=lead.job_title, + first_name=first_name + ), + "body": self.TEMPLATES['email_body'].format( + first_name=first_name, + company=lead.company, + topic=topic, + pain_point=pain_point, + industry_specific=lead.industry.lower(), + similar_company="a similar company", + step1="Predictive scoring", + step2="Personalized sequences", + step3="Performance analytics", + your_name="Your Lead Gen AI" + ) + } + + +class CampaignExecutor: + """Execute automated campaigns""" + + def __init__(self, db_path: str = "leads.db"): + self.db_path = db_path + self._init_db() + + def _init_db(self): + conn = sqlite3.connect(self.db_path) + conn.execute('''CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS leads ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, + company TEXT, + job_title TEXT, + industry TEXT, + score INTEGER, + priority TEXT, + status TEXT DEFAULT 'new', + created_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP + )''') + conn.execute('''CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS outreach_log ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, + lead_id INTEGER, + channel TEXT, + content TEXT, + sent_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP, + engagement INTEGER DEFAULT 0 + )''') + conn.commit() + conn.close() + + +async def process_leads_batch(leads_data: List[Dict]) -> List[Dict]: + """Process batch of leads""" + scorer = LeadScorer() + engine = PersonalizationEngine() + results = [] + + for lead_dict in leads_data: + lead = LeadFeatures( + company=lead_dict.get('company', ''), + job_title=lead_dict.get('job_title', ''), + industry=lead_dict.get('industry', ''), + revenue=lead_dict.get('revenue'), + employees=lead_dict.get('employees'), + tech_stack=lead_dict.get('tech_stack', []), + engagement=lead_dict.get('engagement', {}) + ) + + score = scorer.calculate(lead) + priority = scorer.get_priority(score) + personalized = engine.personalize_email(lead) + + results.append({ + "lead": {"company": lead.company, "job_title": lead.job_title}, + "score": score, + "priority": priority, + "next_action": "Send email" if score > 50 else "Monitor", + "email": personalized + }) + + return results + + +async def main(): + """Demo execution""" + sample_leads = [ + { + "company": "TechStart Inc", + "job_title": "Marketing Director", + "industry": "SaaS", + "revenue": "$25000000", + "tech_stack": ["HubSpot", "Loom", "Zoom"], + "engagement": {"website_visits": 5, "email_opens": 3} + }, + { + "company": "MediCare Hospital", + "job_title": "CTO", + "industry": "Healthcare", + "revenue": "$150000000", + "tech_stack": ["Epic", "Cerner", "Salesforce"], + "engagement": {"website_visits": 12, "content_downloads": 2} + }, + { + "company": "Local Bakery", + "job_title": "Owner", + "industry": "Food & Beverage", + "employees": 15, + "engagement": {"website_visits": 1} + } + ] + + print("🚀 AI Lead Generation Processing...") + print("=" * 50) + + results = await process_leads_batch(sample_leads) + + for r in results: + print(f"\n{r['lead']['company']} - {r['lead']['job_title']}") + print(f" Score: {r['score']} | Priority: {r['priority']} | Action: {r['next_action']}") + + print("\n✅ Complete - processed", len(results), "leads") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + asyncio.run(main()) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/scripts/ai_lead_scorer.py b/scripts/ai_lead_scorer.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8b0797321d8d69077d3a89d4e18b32a3f0f065eb --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/ai_lead_scorer.py @@ -0,0 +1,188 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""AI Lead Scoring Agent for B2B prospect qualification""" +import asyncio +import json +import os +from datetime import datetime +from typing import Dict, List, Optional + +# Hermes tools available +try: + from hermes_tools import web_search, terminal +except ImportError: + pass + +# Lead scoring weights +WEIGHTS = { + "job_seniority": 0.25, + "company_size": 0.20, + "digital_footprint": 0.15, + "engagement_velocity": 0.15, + "historical_data": 0.15, + "industry_fit": 0.10 +} + + +def score_job_seniority(title: str) -> float: + """Score job title 0-1""" + high = ['CEO', 'CTO', 'CMO', 'VP', 'Director', 'Head'] + mid = ['Manager', 'Lead', 'Specialist', 'Coordinator'] + + title_upper = title.upper() + if any(h in title_upper for h in high): + return 1.0 + elif any(m in title_upper for m in mid): + return 0.6 + return 0.3 + + +def score_company_size(revenue: Optional[str] = None, employees: Optional[int] = None) -> float: + """Score company size 0-1""" + if revenue: + try: + rev = float(revenue.replace('$', '').replace(',', '')) + if rev >= 10000000: # $10M+ + return 1.0 + elif rev >= 1000000: # $1M-$10M + return 0.8 + elif rev >= 100000: # $100K-$1M + return 0.6 + except: + pass + + if employees: + if employees >= 500: + return 1.0 + elif employees >= 50: + return 0.7 + elif employees >= 10: + return 0.4 + return 0.2 + + +def score_industry_fit(industry: str, target_industries: List[str]) -> float: + """Score how well industry matches targets""" + industry_lower = industry.lower() + matches = sum(1 for t in target_industries if t.lower() in industry_lower) + return min(1.0, matches * 0.3) + + +def calculate_total_score(lead_data: Dict) -> int: + """Calculate total lead score 0-100""" + + job_score = score_job_seniority(lead_data.get('job_title', '')) + company_score = score_company_size( + lead_data.get('revenue'), + lead_data.get('employees') + ) + industry_score = score_industry_fit( + lead_data.get('industry', ''), + lead_data.get('target_industries', []) + ) + + # Engagement signals + engagement = lead_data.get('engagement', {}) + engagement_score = min(1.0, ( + engagement.get('website_visits', 0) * 0.2 + + engagement.get('email_opens', 0) * 0.15 + + engagement.get('content_downloads', 0) * 0.25 + + engagement.get('social_engagement', 0) * 0.1 + )) + + # Historical data + historical = lead_data.get('historical_data', {}) + historical_score = min(1.0, ( + historical.get('previous_interest', 0) * 0.5 + + historical.get('demo_requests', 0) * 0.8 + + historical.get('last_purchase_days', 365) / 365 * -0.5 + 0.5 # Recent = good + )) + + # Digital footprint + tech_stack = lead_data.get('tech_stack', []) + digital_score = min(1.0, len(tech_stack) * 0.1 + + (0 if 'none' in tech_stack else 0.3)) + + # Weighted average + total = ( + job_score * WEIGHTS['job_seniority'] + + company_score * WEIGHTS['company_size'] + + digital_score * WEIGHTS['digital_footprint'] + + engagement_score * WEIGHTS['engagement_velocity'] + + historical_score * WEIGHTS['historical_data'] + + industry_score * WEIGHTS['industry_fit'] + ) * 100 + + return round(max(0, min(100, total))) + + +def generate_prediction(score: int, industry: str) -> Dict: + """Generate prediction metadata""" + if score >= 80: + action = "Immediate outreach - scheduling calls" + timeline = "0-7 days" + elif score >= 65: + action = "Send personalized content package" + timeline = "7-14 days" + elif score >= 50: + action = "Monitor for engagement signals" + timeline = "14-30 days" + else: + action = "Nurture with educational content" + timeline = "30+ days" + + return { + "recommended_action": action, + "timeline": timeline, + "confidence": "high" if score > 70 else "medium" if score > 50 else "low" + } + + +async def process_lead(lead_data: Dict) -> Dict: + """Process single lead and return score""" + score = calculate_total_score(lead_data) + prediction = generate_prediction(score, lead_data.get('industry', '')) + + return { + "lead_id": lead_data.get('id'), + "company": lead_data.get('company'), + "job_title": lead_data.get('job_title'), + "lead_score": score, + "prediction": prediction, + "processed_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + } + + +async def main(): + """Example usage""" + sample_leads = [ + { + "id": 1, + "company": "TechStart Inc", + "job_title": "Marketing Director", + "industry": "SaaS", + "revenue": "$25000000", + "target_industries": ["SaaS", "Technology", "Software"], + "engagement": { + "website_visits": 5, + "email_opens": 3 + } + }, + { + "id": 2, + "company": "Local Bakery", + "job_title": "Owner", + "industry": "Food & Beverage", + "employees": 15, + "engagement": { + "website_visits": 1 + } + } + ] + + for lead in sample_leads: + result = await process_lead(lead) + print(json.dumps(result, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + asyncio.run(main()) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/scripts/build_ai_lead_gen.sh b/scripts/build_ai_lead_gen.sh new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e68a5cb83199b9f919bfb3507bf92f6913f3d9dd --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/build_ai_lead_gen.sh @@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ +#!/bin/bash +# Build AI Lead Generation Agency infrastructure +set -e + +echo "🚀 Building AI Lead Generation Agency..." + +# Install dependencies +echo "📦 Installing dependencies..." +pip install fastapi uvicorn celery[redis] chromadb pgvector anthropic openai twilio python-dotenv httpx + +# Initialize database +echo "🗄️ Setting up database..." +python3 -c " +import sqlite3 +conn = sqlite3.connect('leads.db') +conn.execute('''CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS leads ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, + email TEXT UNIQUE, + name TEXT, + company TEXT, + job_title TEXT, + score INTEGER, + status TEXT DEFAULT 'new', + created_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP +)''') +conn.execute('CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS outreach_log ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, + lead_id INTEGER, + channel TEXT, + content TEXT, + sent_at TIMESTAMP DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP, + response TEXT +)') +conn.commit() +print('Database initialized') +" + +# Create API routes +echo "🔌 Creating API endpoints..." +mkdir -p app/routers app/services + +cat > app/__init__.py << 'EOF' +from .main import app +EOF + +cat > app/main.py << 'EOF' +from fastapi import FastAPI +from app.routers import leads, campaigns + +app = FastAPI(title="AI Lead Generation Agency", version="1.0") +app.include_router(leads.router) +app.include_router(campaigns.router) +EOF + +cat > app/routers/leads.py << 'EOF' +from fastapi import APIRouter +from pydantic import BaseModel + +router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/leads") + +class LeadScore(BaseModel): + company: str + job_title: str + engagement_score: int = 0 + +@router.post("/score") +async def score_lead(lead: LeadScore): + # Placeholder for scoring logic + return {"lead_score": 75, "confidence": "high"} +EOF + +echo "✅ Infrastructure built successfully!" +echo "" +echo "Next steps:" +echo " 1. Set API keys in .env file" +echo " 2. Run: uvicorn app.main:app --reload" +echo " 3. Deploy: ssh user@server 'cd /app && ./build_agency.sh'" \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/scripts/deploy_hostinger.py b/scripts/deploy_hostinger.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..be7d17566ea01ef98817582b4b1a11738bf28a1b --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/deploy_hostinger.py @@ -0,0 +1,65 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Hostinger deployment script for AI Lead Generation Agency""" +import os +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +def deploy_to_hostinger(): + """Deploy the AI Lead Generation Agency to Hostinger""" + + api_key = os.environ.get('HOSTINGER_API_KEY') + if not api_key: + print("❌ HOSTINGER_API_KEY not set") + sys.exit(1) + + print("🚀 Deploying AI Lead Generation Agency to Hostinger...") + + # Files to upload + files = [ + 'hostinger.toml', + 'requirements.txt', + 'src/main.py', + 'src/leads.py', + 'src/campaigns.py', + 'scripts/ai_lead_agent.py' + ] + + for f in files: + if not Path(f).exists(): + print(f"⚠️ Skipping {f} (doesn't exist)") + + # Create src directory + Path('src').mkdir(exist_ok=True) + + # Deploy using Hostinger API mock + print("📦 Uploading files...") + + # Check if hstouch CLI is available + try: + result = subprocess.run(['hstouch', '--version'], capture_output=True) + print("✅ Hostinger CLI available") + except FileNotFoundError: + print("⚠️ Hostinger CLI not found - showing manual steps") + print(""" +Manual deployment steps: +1. Upload src/ directory to /public_html/ +2. Upload hostinger.toml as hstouch.conf +3. Set environment variables in Hostinger panel: + - ANTHROPIC_API_KEY + - OPENAI_API_KEY + - HOSTINGER_API_KEY +4. Run: pip install -r requirements.txt +5. Set up database connection +6. Restart application +""") + + print("✅ Deployment configuration ready") + print("\n📋 Next steps:") + print("1. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in .env or Hostinger panel") + print("2. Install requirements: pip install -r requirements.txt") + print("3. Initialize database: python scripts/init_db.py") + print("4. Start server: uvicorn src.main:app --host 0.0.0.0 --port 8000") + +if __name__ == "__main__": + deploy_to_hostinger() \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/scripts/ebook_market_seo_agent.py b/scripts/ebook_market_seo_agent.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..f8030936cb5a01e820e03a57a17c7ad198e2c44d --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/ebook_market_seo_agent.py @@ -0,0 +1,248 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +""" +Ebook Market Research & SEO Geo Keyword Agent +Scans markets across geographies, injects SEO keywords into titles, +generates new book concepts with market analysis and keyword optimization. +""" + +import json +import os +import re +import sys +from typing import List, Dict +from dataclasses import dataclass, field, asdict + + +class BookConcept: + """A generated book concept with SEO optimization""" + def __init__(self, title: str, subtitle: str, niche: str, geo: str, + primary_keywords: List[str] = None, secondary_keywords: List[str] = None, + estimated_demand: int = 0, estimated_revenue: float = 0.0, + competition_level: str = "medium", seo_score: int = 0, + content_outline: List[str] = None): + self.title = title + self.subtitle = subtitle + self.niche = niche + self.geo = geo + self.primary_keywords = primary_keywords or [] + self.secondary_keywords = secondary_keywords or [] + self.estimated_demand = estimated_demand + self.estimated_revenue = estimated_revenue + self.competition_level = competition_level + self.seo_score = seo_score + self.content_outline = content_outline or [] + + def to_dict(self) -> dict: + return { + "title": self.title, + "subtitle": self.subtitle, + "niche": self.niche, + "geo": self.geo, + "primary_keywords": self.primary_keywords, + "secondary_keywords": self.secondary_keywords, + "estimated_demand": self.estimated_demand, + "estimated_revenue": self.estimated_revenue, + "competition_level": self.competition_level, + "seo_score": self.seo_score, + "content_outline": self.content_outline + } + + +class MarketSegment: + """Market segment analysis data""" + def __init__(self, niche: str, geo: str, total_books: int, avg_price: float, + top_keywords: List[str] = None, growth_rate: float = 0.0, + profitability_score: int = 0, saturation: str = "medium"): + self.niche = niche + self.geo = geo + self.total_books = total_books + self.avg_price = avg_price + self.top_keywords = top_keywords or [] + self.growth_rate = growth_rate + self.profitability_score = profitability_score + self.saturation = saturation + + +class EbookMarketResearchAgent: + """Main agent orchestrator for ebook market research""" + + def __init__(self): + self.geo_keyword_cache = {} + + def get_geo_keywords(self, geo: str, niche: str, limit: int = 10) -> List[str]: + """Get SEO keywords for a niche in a specific geography""" + cache_key = f"{geo}:{niche}:{limit}" + if cache_key in self.geo_keyword_cache: + return self.geo_keyword_cache[cache_key] + + geo_modifiers = { + "US": ["American", "US", "US market", "US edition"], + "UK": ["British", "UK", "UK market", "UK edition"], + "AU": ["Australian", "AU", "AU market", "Australian edition"], + "IN": ["Indian", "India", "India market", "India edition"] + }.get(geo, [geo]) + + keywords = [] + for i in range(limit): + keyword = f"{niche} {geo_modifiers[i % len(geo_modifiers)]} guide {2025 + i % 3}" + keywords.append(keyword) + + self.geo_keyword_cache[cache_key] = keywords + return keywords + + def analyze_market(self, niche: str, geo: str = "US") -> MarketSegment: + """Analyze a market segment in a specific geography""" + return MarketSegment( + niche=niche, + geo=geo, + total_books=2450, + avg_price=14.99, + top_keywords=self.get_geo_keywords(geo, niche, 5), + growth_rate=0.15, + profitability_score=72, + saturation="medium" + ) + + def _generate_content_outline(self, niche: str, geo: str, keywords: List[str]) -> List[str]: + """Generate SEO-optimized content outline""" + outline = [ + f"Introduction: {niche} in {geo}", + f"Chapter 1: Getting Started with {keywords[0] if keywords else niche} in {geo}", + f"Chapter 2: {niche} Basics for {geo} Market", + f"Chapter 3: Advanced {niche} Techniques in {geo}", + f"Chapter 4: {keywords[1] if len(keywords) > 1 else niche} Tools for {geo}", + f"Chapter 5: Case Studies: {niche} Success in {geo}", + f"Chapter 6: Common Mistakes in {geo} {niche}", + f"Chapter 7: {keywords[2] if len(keywords) > 2 else niche} Trends for {geo}", + f"Conclusion: {niche} Future in {geo}", + f"Appendix: {niche} Resources for {geo} Readers" + ] + return outline + + def generate_book_concepts(self, niche: str, geo: str = "US", count: int = 10) -> List[BookConcept]: + """Generate new book concepts with SEO optimization""" + concepts = [] + market = self.analyze_market(niche, geo) + keywords = self.get_geo_keywords(geo, niche, 20) + + geo_modifiers = { + "US": ["American", "US", "US Edition"], + "UK": ["British", "UK", "UK Edition"], + "AU": ["Australian", "AU", "Australian Edition"], + "IN": ["Indian", "India", "India Edition"] + }.get(geo, [geo]) + + title_patterns = [ + f"The Ultimate {niche} {geo_modifiers[0]} Guide", + f"Complete {niche} {geo_modifiers[1]} Handbook", + f"{niche} {geo_modifiers[2]} Mastery", + f"The Definitive {niche} {geo} Guide", + f"{niche} {geo} {geo_modifiers[0]} Ultimate Guide", + f"Expert {niche} Strategies for {geo}", + f"{niche} {geo_modifiers[1]} Complete Guide 2025", + f"Modern {niche} {geo} Edition", + f"The {niche} {geo_modifiers[2]} Handbook", + f"{niche} {geo} Expert Guide" + ] + + subtitle_patterns = [ + f"Step-by-Step {geo} {niche} {geo_modifiers[0]} Edition", + f"The Complete {geo} {niche} Handbook", + f"{geo_modifiers[1]} {niche} Mastery Guide", + f"Expert Strategies for {geo} {niche}", + f"Modern {geo} {niche} {geo_modifiers[2]} Edition", + f"The Definitive {geo} {niche} {geo_modifiers[0]} Guide", + f"{geo_modifiers[1]} {niche} {geo} Ultimate Edition", + f"Advanced {geo} {niche} {geo_modifiers[2]} Book", + f"Complete {geo} {niche} {geo_modifiers[0]} Handbook", + f"The Ultimate {geo} {niche} {geo_modifiers[1]} Guide" + ] + + for i in range(count): + concept = BookConcept( + title=title_patterns[i % len(title_patterns)], + subtitle=subtitle_patterns[i % len(subtitle_patterns)], + niche=niche, + geo=geo, + primary_keywords=keywords[:3], + secondary_keywords=keywords[3:6], + estimated_demand=8000, + estimated_revenue=14.99 * market.avg_price * 0.12, + competition_level=market.saturation, + seo_score=min(100, max(50, market.profitability_score)), + content_outline=self._generate_content_outline(niche, geo, keywords[:5]) + ) + concepts.append(concept) + + return concepts + + def export_report(self, niche: str, geo: str = "US", format: str = "json") -> str: + """Export market research report""" + market = self.analyze_market(niche, geo) + concepts = self.generate_book_concepts(niche, geo, 10) + + if format == "json": + report = { + "niche": niche, + "geo": geo, + "market_analysis": { + "niche": market.niche, + "geo": market.geo, + "total_books": market.total_books, + "avg_price": market.avg_price, + "top_keywords": market.top_keywords, + "growth_rate": market.growth_rate, + "profitability_score": market.profitability_score, + "saturation": market.saturation + }, + "generated_concepts": [c.to_dict() for c in concepts] + } + return json.dumps(report, indent=2) + + elif format == "markdown": + md = f"# Ebook Market Research Report\n\n## {niche} - {geo}\n\n" + md += f"**Total Books:** {market.total_books}\n" + md += f"**Average Price:** ${market.avg_price:.2f}\n" + md += f"**Growth Rate:** {market.growth_rate*100:.1f}%\n" + md += f"**Profitability Score:** {market.profitability_score}/100\n" + md += f"**Saturation:** {market.saturation}\n\n" + md += "## Generated Book Concepts\n\n" + for i, concept in enumerate(concepts, 1): + md += f"### {i}. {concept.title}\n\n" + md += f"**Subtitle:** {concept.subtitle}\n\n" + md += f"- **SEO Score:** {concept.seo_score}\n" + md += f"- **Estimated Demand:** {concept.estimated_demand:,} searches/mo\n" + md += f"- **Estimated Revenue:** ${concept.estimated_revenue:,.2f}\n" + md += f"- **Competition:** {concept.competition_level}\n\n" + md += "**Primary Keywords:**\n" + for kw in concept.primary_keywords: + md += f"- {kw}\n" + md += "\n**Content Outline:**\n" + for chapter in concept.content_outline: + md += f"- {chapter}\n" + md += "\n" + return md + + return json.dumps({"error": "Unknown format"}, indent=2) + + +def main(): + """CLI entry point""" + if len(sys.argv) < 2: + print("Usage: python3 ebook_market_seo_agent.py [geo] [count]") + print(" niche - Book niche to analyze") + print(" geo - Target geography (default: US)") + print(" count - Number of concepts to generate (default: 10)") + sys.exit(1) + + niche = sys.argv[1] + geo = sys.argv[2] if len(sys.argv) > 2 else "US" + count = int(sys.argv[3]) if len(sys.argv) > 3 else 10 + + agent = EbookMarketResearchAgent() + report = agent.export_report(niche, geo, format="json") + print(report) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/scripts/run_mcp_server.py b/scripts/run_mcp_server.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..27e94c0322eb81652e38486401d9595d97079d23 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/run_mcp_server.py @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +import asyncio +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +SRC = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "src" +sys.path.insert(0, str(SRC)) +from mcp_server import mcp + +async def _main(): + await mcp.run_stdio_async() + +if __name__ == "__main__": + asyncio.run(_main()) diff --git a/scripts/run_mcp_server.sh b/scripts/run_mcp_server.sh new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..30c2a1fcbc70a4002a1748fa932bca6e402048f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/run_mcp_server.sh @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env bash +set -euo pipefail +VENV="$HOME/trifecta-bro-hf-space/.mcp-venv" +PY="$VENV/bin/python" +export PYTHONPATH="$HOME/trifecta-bro-hf-space/src" +exec "$PY" - "$HOME/trifecta-bro-hf-space/src/mcp_server.py" << 'PYEOF' +import sys +from pathlib import Path +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[0])) +from mcp_server import mcp +import asyncio +asyncio.run(mcp.run_stdio_async()) +PYEOF diff --git a/scripts/verify_mcp_server.py b/scripts/verify_mcp_server.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..409bdf03c971751aff9a44382974c6d8411204b5 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/verify_mcp_server.py @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +"""Verify trifecta-bro MCP server tools with local data.""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(REPO_ROOT / "src")) + +from mcp_server import get_predictions, get_race, list_pdfs, get_latest_meetings, health + + +def call(name: str, fn): + print(f"==> {name}") + try: + results = fn() + assert isinstance(results, list) and len(results) == 1 + text = results[0].text + obj = json.loads(text) + print(json.dumps({"ok": True, "tool": name, "data": obj}, indent=2)[:3000]) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 + print(json.dumps({"ok": False, "tool": name, "error": str(exc)}, indent=2)) + print() + + +call("trifecta.health", health) + +call("trifecta.get_latest_meetings", lambda: get_latest_meetings()) + +sample_dates = sorted( + p.stem.replace("predictions-", "") + for p in (REPO_ROOT / "data" / "predictions").glob("predictions-*.json") +) +if sample_dates: + d = sample_dates[0] + call("trifecta.get_predictions", lambda dd=d: get_predictions(dd)) + call("trifecta.list_pdfs", list_pdfs) + try: + payload = json.loads( + (REPO_ROOT / "data" / "predictions" / f"predictions-{d}.json").read_text() + ) + races = payload.get("races", []) + if races: + rn = races[0].get("race_number") + call("trifecta.get_race", lambda dd=d, rn=int(rn): get_race(dd, rn)) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 + print(json.dumps({"ok": False, "tool": "trifecta.get_race", "error": str(exc)}, indent=2)) +else: + print("No predictions JSON files found under data/predictions") diff --git a/src/__init__.py b/src/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2a685b4a5269124b1d29482dd5e98d55ee41ab5 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,16 @@ +# Trifecta Pro HF Space +from .prediction_model import TrifectaPredictor, Race, Runner +from .hf_mcp_server import HFMCPServer, create_mcp_server +from .lmstudio_model import MODEL_ID, get_model_id, health_check, resolve_base_url + +__all__ = [ + "TrifectaPredictor", + "Race", + "Runner", + "HFMCPServer", + "create_mcp_server", + "MODEL_ID", + "get_model_id", + "health_check", + "resolve_base_url", +] diff --git a/src/build_booklet.py b/src/build_booklet.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..715c9a247c2c056e85a202491f8b01c2eebdc45b --- /dev/null +++ b/src/build_booklet.py @@ -0,0 +1,178 @@ +"""Generate PDF booklet for Trifecta-Bro predictions.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +from reportlab.lib import colors +from reportlab.lib.pagesizes import A4 +from reportlab.lib.styles import getSampleStyleSheet, ParagraphStyle +from reportlab.lib.units import mm +from reportlab.platypus import SimpleDocTemplate, Table, TableStyle, Paragraph, Spacer + +from src.prediction_model import Race, Runner, TrifectaPredictor + + +TITLE = "Trifecta-Bro" +SUBTITLE = "Australian Gallops Prediction Booklet" + + +def build_booklet(races: list[dict[str, Any]], output_path: Path) -> Path: + predictor = TrifectaPredictor() + doc = SimpleDocTemplate( + str(output_path), + pagesize=A4, + title=TITLE, + author="Trifecta-Bro", + ) + styles = getSampleStyleSheet() + title_style = ParagraphStyle( + "TBTitle", + parent=styles["Title"], + fontSize=22, + textColor=colors.HexColor("#111827"), + spaceAfter=4, + ) + subtitle_style = ParagraphStyle( + "TBSubtitle", + parent=styles["Normal"], + fontSize=10, + textColor=colors.HexColor("#6B7280"), + spaceAfter=12, + ) + heading_style = ParagraphStyle( + "TBHeading", + parent=styles["Heading2"], + fontSize=14, + textColor=colors.HexColor("#0F172A"), + spaceAfter=6, + ) + body_style = ParagraphStyle( + "TBBody", + parent=styles["Normal"], + fontSize=9, + leading=12, + ) + + story: list[Any] = [ + Paragraph(TITLE, title_style), + Paragraph(SUBTITLE, subtitle_style), + Spacer(1, 4 * mm), + ] + + for race_payload in races: + race = _to_race(race_payload) + story.append(Paragraph(f"Race {race.race_number}: {race.race_name}", heading_style)) + meta = Table( + [ + ["Distance", race.distance, "Condition", race.condition], + ["Weather", race.weather or "", "Class", race.race_class], + ["Prize", f"${race.prize_money}", "Runners", str(race.number_of_runners)], + ], + colWidths=[28 * mm, 45 * mm, 28 * mm, 45 * mm], + ) + meta.setStyle(TableStyle([ + ("FONTNAME", (0, 0), (-1, -1), "Helvetica"), + ("FONTSIZE", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 8), + ("BACKGROUND", (0, 0), (0, -1), colors.HexColor("#F3F4F6")), + ("BACKGROUND", (2, 0), (2, -1), colors.HexColor("#F3F4F6")), + ("LEFTPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 6), + ("RIGHTPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 6), + ("TOPPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 4), + ("BOTTOMPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 4), + ("GRID", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 0.5, colors.HexColor("#E5E7EB")), + ])) + story.append(meta) + story.append(Spacer(1, 4 * mm)) + + prediction = predictor.predict(race) + if "error" in prediction: + story.append(Paragraph(f"Prediction unavailable: {prediction['error']}", body_style)) + story.append(Spacer(1, 6 * mm)) + continue + + trifecta_table = Table( + [ + ["Primary", prediction.get("primary", "")], + ["Secondary", prediction.get("secondary") or "-"], + ["Value", prediction.get("value") or "-"], + ], + colWidths=[32 * mm, 114 * mm], + ) + trifecta_table.setStyle(TableStyle([ + ("FONTNAME", (0, 0), (-1, -1), "Helvetica-Bold"), + ("FONTSIZE", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 9), + ("BACKGROUND", (0, 0), (0, -1), colors.HexColor("#0F172A")), + ("TEXTCOLOR", (0, 0), (0, -1), colors.white), + ("LEFTPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 6), + ("TOPPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 5), + ("BOTTOMPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 5), + ("GRID", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 0.5, colors.HexColor("#E5E7EB")), + ])) + story.append(trifecta_table) + story.append(Spacer(1, 4 * mm)) + + runner_rows = [[ + "#", "Horse", "Form", "Score", "Win%", "Place%", "Bar", "Jockey" + ]] + for item in prediction.get("top3", []): + runner_rows.append([ + str(item["number"]), + item["name"], + "", + str(item["score"]), + f"{item['win_prob']:.0f}%", + f"{item['place_prob']:.0f}%", + "", + "", + ]) + runner_table = Table(runner_rows, repeatRows=1) + runner_table.setStyle(TableStyle([ + ("FONTNAME", (0, 0), (-1, 0), "Helvetica-Bold"), + ("FONTSIZE", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 8), + ("BACKGROUND", (0, 0), (-1, 0), colors.HexColor("#F3F4F6")), + ("GRID", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 0.5, colors.HexColor("#E5E7EB")), + ("LEFTPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 5), + ("TOPPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 4), + ("BOTTOMPADDING", (0, 0), (-1, -1), 4), + ])) + story.append(runner_table) + story.append(Spacer(1, 6 * mm)) + + doc.build(story) + return output_path + + +def _to_race(payload: dict[str, Any]) -> Race: + form = payload.get("form", {}) + runners = [] + for r in form.get("runners", []): + runners.append(Runner( + number=r.get("number", 0), + name=r.get("name", ""), + jockey=r.get("jockey", ""), + trainer=r.get("trainer", ""), + weight=r.get("weight"), + barrier=r.get("barrier"), + form=r.get("form", ""), + last20Starts=r.get("last20Starts", ""), + careerPrizeMoney=r.get("careerPrizeMoney", "$0"), + scratched=bool(r.get("scratched", False)), + stats=r.get("stats", {}), + )) + return Race( + date=payload.get("date", ""), + track=payload.get("track", ""), + track_slug=payload.get("track_slug", ""), + race_number=str(payload.get("race_number", "")), + race_name=payload.get("race_name", ""), + distance=payload.get("distance", ""), + condition=payload.get("condition", ""), + weather=payload.get("weather", ""), + race_class=payload.get("race_class", ""), + start_time=payload.get("start_time", ""), + prize_money=payload.get("prize_money", ""), + number_of_runners=int(payload.get("number_of_runners", 0) or 0), + runners=runners, + ) diff --git a/src/campaigns.py b/src/campaigns.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ef1a837ce0b262f7ee5c7ae3ae44a965e72e2341 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/campaigns.py @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ +"""Campaign management module""" +from fastapi import APIRouter +from pydantic import BaseModel +from typing import List, Optional +from datetime import datetime + +router = APIRouter(prefix="/campaigns") + +class CampaignCreate(BaseModel): + name: str + industry: str + budget: float + channels: List[str] = ["email"] + start_date: Optional[str] = None + +class CampaignResponse(BaseModel): + id: int + name: str + status: str + budget: float + leads_targeted: int + created_at: str + +_campaigns_db = {} +_next_id = 1 + +@router.post("/", response_model=CampaignResponse) +async def create_campaign(campaign: CampaignCreate): + global _next_id + + # Calculate estimated leads + leads_targeted = int(campaign.budget * 0.15) + + _campaigns_db[_next_id] = { + "name": campaign.name, + "industry": campaign.industry, + "budget": campaign.budget, + "leads_targeted": leads_targeted, + "status": "running", + "created_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + } + + cid = _next_id + _next_id += 1 + + return CampaignResponse( + id=cid, + name=campaign.name, + status="running", + budget=campaign.budget, + leads_targeted=leads_targeted, + created_at=datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + ) + +@router.get("/", response_model=List[CampaignResponse]) +async def list_campaigns(): + return [ + CampaignResponse( + id=cid, + name=data["name"], + status=data["status"], + budget=data["budget"], + leads_targeted=data["leads_targeted"], + created_at=data["created_at"] + ) + for cid, data in _campaigns_db.items() + ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/hf_mcp_server.py b/src/hf_mcp_server.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..5f9496d6259bd8dba373c3c266b3e13c8c3a29e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/hf_mcp_server.py @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +"""HF Space MCP server for Trifecta Pro predictions.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +from .prediction_model import Race, Runner, TrifectaPredictor + + +def load_predictions(date: str) -> dict[str, Any]: + path = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "data" / "predictions" / f"predictions-{date}.json" + if not path.exists(): + return {"error": f"No predictions for {date}", "path": str(path)} + return json.loads(path.read_text()) + + +def list_pdfs() -> dict[str, Any]: + pdf_dir = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "data" / "pdfs" + pdfs = sorted([p.name for p in pdf_dir.glob("*.pdf")]) if pdf_dir.exists() else [] + return {"pdfs": pdfs} + + +class HFMCPServer: + def __init__(self, space_name: str = "Brettapps/trifecta-bro", access_token: str | None = None) -> None: + self.space_name = space_name + self.access_token = access_token + self.predictor = TrifectaPredictor() + + def get_latest_predictions(self, date: str | None = None) -> dict[str, Any]: + if not date: + from datetime import date as d, timedelta + date = (d.today() + timedelta(days=1)).isoformat() + return load_predictions(date) + + def get_pdf_list(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + return list_pdfs() + + def download_pdf(self, pdf_name: str) -> dict[str, Any]: + pdf_dir = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "data" / "pdfs" + path = pdf_dir / pdf_name + if not path.exists(): + return {"error": f"PDF not found: {pdf_name}"} + return {"path": str(path), "name": pdf_name} + + def get_space_status(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + return { + "space": self.space_name, + "status": "ok", + "predictor": "trifecta-model-v1", + } + + +def create_mcp_server() -> HFMCPServer: + return HFMCPServer() diff --git a/src/leads.py b/src/leads.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0c1ef2491e00c35230586957e44b8495a09473ad --- /dev/null +++ b/src/leads.py @@ -0,0 +1,80 @@ +"""Lead management module""" +from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field +from typing import List, Optional +from datetime import datetime + +router = APIRouter(prefix="/leads") + +class LeadCreate(BaseModel): + company: str + name: Optional[str] = None + email: Optional[str] = None + job_title: str + industry: str + revenue: Optional[str] = None + employees: Optional[int] = None + source: Optional[str] = "organic" + +class LeadResponse(BaseModel): + id: int + company: str + job_title: str + score: int + status: str + created_at: str + +# In-memory store +_leads_db = {} +_next_id = 1 + +@router.post("/", response_model=LeadResponse) +async def create_lead(lead: LeadCreate): + global _next_id + + # Simple scoring + score = 50 + if lead.revenue: + try: + rev = float(lead.revenue.replace('$', '')) + if rev > 50000000: + score += 30 + elif rev > 10000000: + score += 20 + except: + pass + + _leads_db[_next_id] = { + "company": lead.company, + "job_title": lead.job_title, + "score": score, + "status": "new", + "created_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + } + + lead_id = _next_id + _next_id += 1 + + return LeadResponse( + id=lead_id, + company=lead.company, + job_title=lead.job_title, + score=score, + status="new", + created_at=datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + ) + +@router.get("/", response_model=List[LeadResponse]) +async def list_leads(status: Optional[str] = None): + results = [] + for lid, data in _leads_db.items(): + if status is None or data["status"] == status: + results.append(LeadResponse( + id=lid, + company=data["company"], + job_title=data["job_title"], + score=data["score"], + status=data["status"], + created_at=data["created_at"] + )) + return results \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/lmstudio_model.py b/src/lmstudio_model.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b567c3e4e5e48b40bff0164b48689623d1082f59 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/lmstudio_model.py @@ -0,0 +1,86 @@ +"""LM Studio model integration for Trifecta-Bro. + +Model id: Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1 + +This module is the bridge between Trifecta-Bro and LM Studio's `lms` server +(OpenAI-compatible API on http://localhost:1234/v1). It is installed here now; +the Obsidian-vault backend wiring is added later once the model weights / prompt +pipeline are ready. + +Responsibilities today: + - Resolve the LM Studio server base URL. + - Expose `Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1` as the canonical model identifier. + - Provide a health check so the rest of the app can detect when the model + is unavailable and fall back to the open-source `TrifectaPredictor`. + +Responsibilities later (vault backend): + - Load the *Fields & Form* note from the Obsidian vault. + - Build the Hermes trifecta prompt. + - Call the LM Studio model and parse the response back into predictions. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +import urllib.request +from dataclasses import dataclass + +# Canonical model identifier used by Trifecta-Bro against LM Studio. +MODEL_ID = "Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1" + +# LM Studio serves an OpenAI-compatible API by default on this port. +DEFAULT_LMSTUDIO_BASE_URL = "http://localhost:1234/v1" + +# The `lms` server only accepts a chat/completions call for a model that is +# loaded. We expose the id here so the server can be primed with: +# lms load Brettapps/trifecta-bro/v1 +# (or by importing the GGUF into LM Studio's model library). + + +@dataclass +class LMStudioStatus: + reachable: bool + base_url: str + model_id: str + detail: str = "" + + +def resolve_base_url() -> str: + """Return the LM Studio base URL, allowing override via env.""" + return os.environ.get("LMSTUDIO_BASE_URL", DEFAULT_LMSTUDIO_BASE_URL).rstrip("/") + + +def get_model_id() -> str: + """Canonical model identifier for Trifecta-Bro v1.""" + return MODEL_ID + + +def health_check(base_url: str | None = None, timeout: float = 3.0) -> LMStudioStatus: + """Check whether the LM Studio server is up and lists our model. + + This is a lightweight probe of the /v1/models endpoint. It does not require + the model to be loaded to report reachability. + """ + url = (base_url or resolve_base_url()) + "/models" + try: + req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"Accept": "application/json"}) + with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout) as resp: + body = resp.read().decode("utf-8", "ignore") + reachable = resp.status == 200 # type: ignore[attr-defined] + detail = "ok" if reachable else f"status {getattr(resp, 'status', '?')}" + # Peek whether our model id is present (non-fatal if not). + if reachable and MODEL_ID not in body: + detail = "server up; model not loaded" + return LMStudioStatus( + reachable=reachable, + base_url=(base_url or resolve_base_url()), + model_id=MODEL_ID, + detail=detail, + ) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - network probe, report failure + return LMStudioStatus( + reachable=False, + base_url=(base_url or resolve_base_url()), + model_id=MODEL_ID, + detail=str(exc) or "unreachable", + ) diff --git a/src/main.py b/src/main.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..1d4bdef4c487c7ba4d21ab8edec45f92cedf1105 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main.py @@ -0,0 +1,202 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Main FastAPI application for AI Lead Generation Agency""" +from fastapi import FastAPI, HTTPException +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field +from typing import List, Optional +from datetime import datetime +import json + +app = FastAPI( + title="AI Lead Generation Agency API", + version="1.0.0", + description="Generate, score, and nurture B2B leads with AI" +) + +# Import scoring components +import sys +sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/scripts') + +# Models +class LeadInput(BaseModel): + company: str + job_title: str + industry: str + revenue: Optional[str] = None + employees: Optional[int] = None + tech_stack: List[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + engagement: dict = Field(default_factory=dict) + + +class ScoreResponse(BaseModel): + company: str + job_title: str + lead_score: int + priority: str + confidence: str + next_action: str + estimated_value: Optional[str] = None + + +# In-memory storage (use DB in production) +_lead_storage = {} + + +@app.get("/") +async def root(): + return { + "agency": "AI Lead Generation", + "version": "1.0.0", + "endpoints": [ + "/api/v1/leads/score", + "/api/v1/leads/process", + "/api/v1/campaigns/run" + ] + } + + +@app.post("/api/v1/leads/score", response_model=ScoreResponse) +async def score_lead(lead: LeadInput): + """Score a single lead and return priority level""" + + # Simple scoring logic + score = 0 + + # Job title bonus + senior_titles = ['CEO', 'CTO', 'CMO', 'VP', 'Director', 'Head', 'Founder'] + if any(t in lead.job_title.upper() for t in senior_titles): + score += 25 + + # Company size bonus + if lead.revenue: + try: + rev = float(lead.revenue.replace('$', '').replace(',', '')) + if rev >= 10000000: + score += 20 + elif rev >= 1000000: + score += 15 + except: + pass + + if lead.employees and lead.employees >= 50: + score += 15 + + # Engagement bonus + eng = lead.engagement.get('website_visits', 0) + if eng >= 10: + score += 20 + elif eng >= 5: + score += 10 + + # Tech stack bonus + if lead.tech_stack: + score += min(15, len(lead.tech_stack) * 3) + + # Industry bonus + target_industries = ['SaaS', 'Technology', 'Software', 'Healthcare', 'Finance', 'E-commerce'] + if any(i in lead.industry for i in target_industries): + score += 20 + + # Priority determination + if score >= 80: + priority = "immediate" + next_action = "Schedule immediate outreach" + confidence = "high" + elif score >= 65: + priority = "high" + next_action = "Send personalized sequence" + confidence = "medium-high" + elif score >= 50: + priority = "medium" + next_action = "Add to nurture campaign" + confidence = "medium" + else: + priority = "low" + next_action = "Monitor for engagement signals" + confidence = "low" + + # Store for history + _lead_storage[lead.company] = { + "score": score, + "priority": priority, + "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + } + + return ScoreResponse( + company=lead.company, + job_title=lead.job_title, + lead_score=score, + priority=priority, + confidence=confidence, + next_action=next_action + ) + + +@app.post("/api/v1/leads/process") +async def process_leads(leads: List[LeadInput]): + """Process multiple leads at once""" + results = [] + + for lead in leads: + result = await score_lead(lead) + results.append(result.dict()) + + return { + "total": len(results), + "by_priority": { + "immediate": len([r for r in results if r['priority'] == 'immediate']), + "high": len([r for r in results if r['priority'] == 'high']), + "medium": len([r for r in results if r['priority'] == 'medium']), + "low": len([r for r in results if r['priority'] == 'low']) + }, + "leads": results + } + + +@app.post("/api/v1/campaigns/run") +async def run_campaign( + target_industry: str, + budget: float = 1000, + channels: List[str] = ["email", "linkedin"] +): + """Run a lead generation campaign""" + + # Estimate leads based on industry and budget + leads_per_dollar = { + "SaaS": 0.15, + "Healthcare": 0.12, + "Finance": 0.18, + "E-commerce": 0.20, + "Technology": 0.25, + "default": 0.10 + } + + multiplier = leads_per_dollar.get(target_industry, leads_per_dollar['default']) + estimated_leads = int(budget * multiplier) + + return { + "campaign": { + "target_industry": target_industry, + "budget": budget, + "channels": channels + }, + "forecast": { + "estimated_leads": estimated_leads, + "expected_meetings": max(1, estimated_leads // 25), + "expected_revenue": budget * 5, + "agency_take_rate": 0.20 + } + } + + +@app.get("/api/v1/health") +async def health_check(): + return { + "status": "healthy", + "timestamp": datetime.utcnow().isoformat(), + "leads_processed": len(_lead_storage) + } + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + import uvicorn + uvicorn.run(app, host="0.0.0.0", port=8000) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/mcp_server.py b/src/mcp_server.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b25077002a1e11667e15a1007d80274482611df5 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/mcp_server.py @@ -0,0 +1,123 @@ +"""Trifecta-Bro MCP Server (MCP 2.0 / FastMCP-style).""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +from datetime import date as date_type, timedelta +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +from mcp.server.mcpserver import MCPServer +from mcp.types import TextContent + +mcp = MCPServer("trifecta-bro") + +REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +PREDICTIONS_DIR = REPO_ROOT / "data" / "predictions" +PDF_DIR = REPO_ROOT / "data" / "pdfs" +PREDICTIONS_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) +PDF_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + +def _predictions_path(for_date: str) -> Path: + return PREDICTIONS_DIR / f"predictions-{for_date}.json" + + +def _load_predictions(for_date: str) -> dict[str, Any]: + p = _predictions_path(for_date) + if not p.exists(): + raise FileNotFoundError(f"No predictions for {for_date}") + return json.loads(p.read_text()) + + +def _pdfs() -> list[str]: + if not PDF_DIR.exists(): + return [] + return sorted([p.name for p in PDF_DIR.glob("*.pdf")]) + + +@mcp.tool(name="trifecta.get_predictions") +def get_predictions(for_date: str | None = None) -> list[TextContent]: + """Return stored trifecta predictions for a date. + + If *for_date* is omitted, tomorrow's date (Australia/Adelaide) is used. + """ + target = for_date or (date_type.today() + timedelta(days=1)).isoformat() + try: + payload = _load_predictions(target) + except FileNotFoundError: + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps({ + "error": f"No predictions for {target}", + "date": target, + "tip": "Run generate_predictions.py or run_daily_analysis() first.", + }, indent=2))] + payload["_meta"] = {"date": target, "server": "trifecta-bro-mcp"} + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps(payload, indent=2))] + + +@mcp.tool(name="trifecta.get_race") +def get_race(for_date: str, race_number: int) -> list[TextContent]: + """Return a single race block from stored predictions.""" + target = for_date + try: + payload = _load_predictions(target) + except FileNotFoundError: + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps({ + "error": f"No predictions for {target}" + }, indent=2))] + for race in payload.get("races", []): + if int(race.get("race_number", 0)) == int(race_number): + pred = race.get("prediction", {}) + out = { + "date": target, + "race_number": race.get("race_number"), + "race_name": race.get("race_name"), + "track": race.get("track"), + "distance": race.get("distance"), + "condition": race.get("condition"), + "race_class": race.get("race_class"), + "prize_money": race.get("prize_money"), + "number_of_runners": race.get("number_of_runners"), + "prediction": pred, + } + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps(out, indent=2))] + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps({ + "error": f"Race {race_number} not found for {target}" + }, indent=2))] + + +@mcp.tool(name="trifecta.list_pdfs") +def list_pdfs() -> list[TextContent]: + """List generated PDF report filenames.""" + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps({"pdfs": _pdfs()}, indent=2))] + + +@mcp.tool(name="trifecta.get_latest_meetings") +def get_latest_meetings(for_date: str | None = None) -> list[TextContent]: + """List available meeting dates with stored predictions.""" + target = for_date or (date_type.today() + timedelta(days=1)).isoformat() + dates = sorted([p.stem.replace("predictions-", "") for p in PREDICTIONS_DIR.glob("predictions-*.json")]) + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps({ + "date": target, + "available_dates": dates, + "count": len(dates), + }, indent=2))] + + +@mcp.tool(name="trifecta.health") +def health() -> list[TextContent]: + """Server health and repo status.""" + return [TextContent(type="text", text=json.dumps({ + "server": "trifecta-bro-mcp", + "status": "ok", + "repo_root": str(REPO_ROOT), + "predictions_dir": str(PREDICTIONS_DIR), + "pdf_dir": str(PDF_DIR), + "predictions_count": len(list(PREDICTIONS_DIR.glob("predictions-*.json"))) if PREDICTIONS_DIR.exists() else 0, + "pdf_count": len(_pdfs()), + }, indent=2))] + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + import asyncio + asyncio.run(mcp.run_stdio_async()) diff --git a/src/prediction_model.py b/src/prediction_model.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c26acebc54f1b658d41ab8dd00044151eb231368 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/prediction_model.py @@ -0,0 +1,136 @@ +"""Lightweight open-source trifecta prediction model.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from dataclasses import dataclass, field +from typing import Any + + +@dataclass +class Runner: + number: int + name: str + jockey: str = "" + trainer: str = "" + weight: float | None = None + barrier: int | None = None + form: str = "" + last20Starts: str = "" + careerPrizeMoney: str = "$0" + scratched: bool = False + stats: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) + + +@dataclass +class Race: + date: str + track: str + track_slug: str + race_number: str + race_name: str + distance: str + condition: str + weather: str + race_class: str + start_time: str + prize_money: str + number_of_runners: int + runners: list[Runner] = field(default_factory=list) + + +class TrifectaPredictor: + """Open-source trifecta prediction model.""" + + def predict(self, race: Race) -> dict[str, Any]: + runners = [r for r in race.runners if not r.scratched] + if len(runners) < 3: + return {"error": "Insufficient runners"} + + scored: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + for runner in runners: + scored.append({ + "number": runner.number, + "name": runner.name, + "score": self._score_runner(runner), + "win_prob": self._win_probability(runner), + "place_prob": self._place_probability(runner), + }) + + scored.sort(key=lambda x: x["score"], reverse=True) + top = scored[:3] + primary = f"{top[0]['number']}-{top[1]['number']}-{top[2]['number']}" + + secondary = None + value = None + if len(scored) > 3: + secondary = f"{top[0]['number']}-{top[2]['number']}-{scored[3]['number']}" + outsiders = [s for s in scored[3:] if s["score"] > 30] + if outsiders: + value = f"{scored[1]['number']}-{top[0]['number']}-{outsiders[0]['number']}" + else: + value = f"{scored[1]['number']}-{top[0]['number']}-{top[2]['number']}" + + return { + "date": race.date, + "track": race.track, + "race_number": race.race_number, + "race_name": race.race_name, + "primary": primary, + "secondary": secondary, + "value": value, + "top3": top, + "confidence": "MEDIUM", + } + + def _score_runner(self, runner: Runner) -> float: + score = 0.0 + form = str(runner.form or runner.last20Starts or "") + recent = form[-5:] if len(form) > 5 else form + score += min((recent.count("1") * 8 + recent.count("2") * 4 + recent.count("3") * 4), 25) + + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + starts = overall.get("starts", 0) or 0 + win_pct = overall.get("winPercent", 0) or 0 + place_pct = overall.get("placePercent", 0) or 0 + score += win_pct * 20 + score += place_pct * 10 + + track_stats = runner.stats.get("track", {}) + track_starts = track_stats.get("starts", 0) or 0 + track_places = track_stats.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((track_places / max(track_starts, 1)) * 10, 10) + + dist_stats = runner.stats.get("distance", {}) + dist_starts = dist_stats.get("starts", 0) or 0 + dist_places = dist_stats.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((dist_places / max(dist_starts, 1)) * 8, 8) + + cond_stats = runner.stats.get("conditions", {}) + for key, data in cond_stats.items(): + c_starts = data.get("starts", 0) or 0 + c_places = data.get("places", 0) or 0 + score += min((c_places / max(c_starts, 1)) * 8, 8) + + try: + barrier = int(runner.barrier) if runner.barrier else 5 + score += max(0, 5 - abs(barrier - 5)) + except Exception: + score += 3 + + try: + prize = float(str(runner.careerPrizeMoney).replace("$", "").replace(",", "")) + score += min(prize / 20000, 5) + except Exception: + pass + + return min(round(score, 1), 100) + + def _win_probability(self, runner: Runner) -> float: + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + win_pct = overall.get("winPercent", 0) or 0 + return min(max(round(win_pct * 100, 1), 0), 100) + + def _place_probability(self, runner: Runner) -> float: + overall = runner.stats.get("overall", {}) + place_pct = overall.get("placePercent", 0) or 0 + return min(max(round(place_pct * 100, 1), 0), 100) diff --git a/sync_horses_to_obsidian.py b/sync_horses_to_obsidian.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..788436b4c3e8e20bf4a21c9705aae55d5fa9bb0d --- /dev/null +++ b/sync_horses_to_obsidian.py @@ -0,0 +1,442 @@ +"""Horse Form Databank Sync Script. + +Reads cached FormFav data and syncs to Obsidian vault. +Creates/updates: +- Individual horse notes with full form history +- Race history notes +- Master index +- Track-specific sub-indexes + +Run manually or via daily cron job. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import os +import re +import sys +from collections import defaultdict +from datetime import datetime, timedelta +from pathlib import Path + +# Paths +DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data') +CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache' +RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results' +REPORTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'reports' + +VAULT_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/Documents/Obsidian Vault') +DATABANK_DIR = VAULT_DIR / 'Horse Form Databank' +HORSES_DIR = DATABANK_DIR / 'Horses' +RACE_HISTORY_DIR = DATABANK_DIR / 'Race-History' + + +def ensure_dirs(): + """Create all necessary directories.""" + for d in [DATABANK_DIR, HORSES_DIR, RACE_HISTORY_DIR]: + d.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + +def sanitize_filename(name: str) -> str: + """Convert horse name to safe filename.""" + safe = re.sub(r'[^\w\s-]', '', name) + safe = re.sub(r'\s+', ' ', safe).strip() + return safe + + +def load_all_cached_races() -> list[dict]: + """Load all cached FormFav data.""" + races = [] + for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'): + try: + with open(f) as fp: + data = json.load(fp) + if 'date' in data and 'track' in data: + races.append(data) + except: + continue + return races + + +def extract_horses_from_race(race_data: dict) -> list[dict]: + """Extract horse data from a cached race.""" + horses = [] + for r in race_data.get('runners', []): + if r.get('scratched'): + continue + + stats = r.get('stats', {}) + overall = stats.get('overall', {}) + track = stats.get('track', {}) + distance = stats.get('distance', {}) + track_distance = stats.get('trackDistance', {}) + + # Get condition-specific stats + cond_stats = stats.get('conditions', {}) + cond_key = None + for key in cond_stats: + if cond_stats[key].get('starts', 0) > 0: + cond_key = key + break + + cond_data = cond_stats.get(cond_key, {}) if cond_key else {} + + # First-up / Second-up + first_up = stats.get('firstUp', {}) + second_up = stats.get('secondUp', {}) + + horse = { + 'number': r['number'], + 'name': r.get('name', 'Unknown'), + 'jockey': r.get('jockey', ''), + 'trainer': r.get('trainer', ''), + 'weight': r.get('weight', 0), + 'barrier': r.get('barrier', 0), + 'age': r.get('age', 0), + 'sex': r.get('sex', ''), + 'sire': r.get('sire', ''), + 'dam': r.get('dam', ''), + 'career_prize_money': r.get('careerPrizeMoney', '$0'), + 'form': r.get('form', ''), + 'last20_starts': r.get('last20Starts', ''), + 'stats': { + 'overall': { + 'starts': overall.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': overall.get('wins', 0), + 'places': overall.get('places', 0), + 'win_pct': overall.get('winPercent', 0), + 'place_pct': overall.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'track': { + 'starts': track.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': track.get('wins', 0), + 'win_pct': track.get('winPercent', 0), + 'place_pct': track.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'distance': { + 'starts': distance.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': distance.get('wins', 0), + 'win_pct': distance.get('winPercent', 0), + 'place_pct': distance.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'track_distance': { + 'starts': track_distance.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': track_distance.get('wins', 0), + 'win_pct': track_distance.get('winPercent', 0), + 'place_pct': track_distance.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'condition': { + 'starts': cond_data.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': cond_data.get('wins', 0), + 'win_pct': cond_data.get('winPercent', 0), + 'place_pct': cond_data.get('placePercent', 0), + }, + 'first_up': { + 'starts': first_up.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': first_up.get('wins', 0), + 'win_pct': first_up.get('winPercent', 0), + }, + 'second_up': { + 'starts': second_up.get('starts', 0), + 'wins': second_up.get('wins', 0), + 'win_pct': second_up.get('winPercent', 0), + }, + }, + 'race_info': { + 'date': race_data.get('date', ''), + 'track': race_data.get('track', ''), + 'race_number': race_data.get('raceNumber', 0), + 'race_name': race_data.get('raceName', ''), + 'distance': race_data.get('distance', ''), + 'condition': race_data.get('condition', ''), + 'race_class': race_data.get('raceClass', ''), + 'start_time': race_data.get('startTime', ''), + 'prize_money': str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')), + }, + } + horses.append(horse) + + return horses + + +def create_horse_note(horse_name: str, all_races: list[dict]) -> str: + """Create or update a horse note in the databank.""" + # Sort races by date (most recent first) + all_races.sort(key=lambda x: x['race_info']['date'], reverse=True) + + # Get latest stats + latest = all_races[0] + stats = latest['stats'] + + note = f"""# {horse_name} + +## Career Statistics + +| Metric | Overall | Track | Distance | Track+Dist | Condition | +|--------|---------|-------|----------|------------|-----------| +| Starts | {stats['overall']['starts']} | {stats['track']['starts']} | {stats['distance']['starts']} | {stats['track_distance']['starts']} | {stats['condition']['starts']} | +| Wins | {stats['overall']['wins']} | {stats['track']['wins']} | {stats['distance']['wins']} | {stats['track_distance']['wins']} | {stats['condition']['wins']} | +| Win % | {stats['overall']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['track']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['distance']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['track_distance']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['condition']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% | +| Place % | {stats['overall']['place_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['track']['place_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['distance']['place_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['track_distance']['place_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['condition']['place_pct']*100:.1f}% | + +## Fitness Profile + +| First-Up | Second-Up | +|----------|-----------| +| {stats['first_up']['starts']} starts, {stats['first_up']['wins']} wins ({stats['first_up']['win_pct']*100:.1f}%) | {stats['second_up']['starts']} starts, {stats['second_up']['wins']} wins ({stats['second_up']['win_pct']*100:.1f}%) | + +## Details + +- **Jockey**: {latest['jockey']} +- **Trainer**: {latest['trainer']} +- **Age/Sex**: {latest['age']}yo {latest['sex']} +- **Sire**: {latest['sire']} +- **Dam**: {latest['dam']} +- **Career Prize**: {latest['career_prize_money']} + +## Recent Form + +""" + + # Add recent form (last 10 races) + for race in all_races[:10]: + ri = race['race_info'] + note += f"- {ri['date']} {ri['track']} R{ri['race_number']}: {ri['race_name']} ({ri['distance']} {ri['condition']}) - Barrier {race['barrier']}, Weight {race['weight']}kg\n" + + # Add form string + note += f"\n## Last 20 Starts\n\n```\n{latest['last20_starts']}\n```\n" + + # Add notes section for manual editing + note += """ + +--- + +## Notes + +[Add your observations here] + +## Related Horses + +[Link to related horses: sire, dam, stablemates] +""" + + return note + + +def create_race_history_note(race_data: dict, horses: list[dict]) -> str: + """Create a race history note.""" + date = race_data.get('date', '') + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + race_name = race_data.get('raceName', '') + distance = race_data.get('distance', '') + condition = race_data.get('condition', '') + race_class = race_data.get('raceClass', '') + + note = f"""# {track} Race {race_num} — {date} + +## Race Details + +- **Name**: {race_name} +- **Distance**: {distance} +- **Condition**: {condition} +- **Class**: {race_class} +- **Prize**: {race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')} +- **Start**: {race_data.get('startTime', '')} + +## Field + +| Barrier | Horse | Jockey | Weight | Form | Win% | Place% | +|---------|-------|--------|--------|------|------|--------| +""" + + for horse in horses: + stats = horse['stats'] + note += f"| {horse['barrier']} | [[{horse['name']}]] | {horse['jockey']} | {horse['weight']}kg | {horse['form']} | {stats['overall']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% | {stats['overall']['place_pct']*100:.1f}% |\n" + + note += """ + +## Result + +[Add official result here] + +## Analysis + +[Add race analysis here] +""" + + return note + + +def create_index(horses_by_name: dict) -> str: + """Create master index note.""" + # Sort by most recently updated + sorted_horses = sorted( + horses_by_name.items(), + key=lambda x: x[1][-1]['race_info']['date'] if x[1] else '', + reverse=True, + ) + + note = f"""# Horse Form Index + +## Recently Updated + +| Horse | Last Race | Track | Form | Starts | Wins | Win % | +|-------|-----------|-------|------|--------|------|-------| +""" + + for horse_name, races in sorted_horses[:50]: + if not races: + continue + latest = races[0] + stats = latest['stats'] + ri = latest['race_info'] + note += f"| [[{horse_name}]] | {ri['date']} | {ri['track']} | {latest['form']} | {stats['overall']['starts']} | {stats['overall']['wins']} | {stats['overall']['win_pct']*100:.1f}% |\n" + + # By track + note += """ + +## By Track + +""" + + by_track = defaultdict(list) + for horse_name, races in horses_by_name.items(): + for race in races: + track = race['race_info']['track'] + if horse_name not in by_track[track]: + by_track[track].append(horse_name) + + for track, horses in sorted(by_track.items()): + note += f"\n### {track}\n\n" + for horse_name in horses[:20]: + note += f"- [[{horse_name}]]\n" + + note += f""" + +--- + +*Updated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M')} | Total horses: {len(horses_by_name)}* +""" + + return note + + +def main(): + print("Horse Form Databank Sync") + print("=" * 60) + + ensure_dirs() + + # Load all cached races + races = load_all_cached_races() + print(f"Loaded {len(races)} cached races") + + # Extract all horses + horses_by_name = defaultdict(list) + races_by_key = {} + + for race_data in races: + date = race_data.get('date', '') + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + + key = f"{date}-{track}-R{race_num}" + horses = extract_horses_from_race(race_data) + races_by_key[key] = { + 'race_data': race_data, + 'horses': horses, + } + + for horse in horses: + name = horse['name'] + horses_by_name[name].append(horse) + + print(f"Found {len(horses_by_name)} unique horses") + + # Create/update horse notes + updated = 0 + for horse_name, races in horses_by_name.items(): + # Sort races by date + races.sort(key=lambda x: x['race_info']['date'], reverse=True) + + note_content = create_horse_note(horse_name, races) + filename = sanitize_filename(horse_name) + '.md' + filepath = HORSES_DIR / filename + + # Write note + with open(filepath, 'w') as f: + f.write(note_content) + + updated += 1 + + print(f"Updated {updated} horse notes") + + # Create/update race history notes + race_updated = 0 + for key, data in races_by_key.items(): + race_data = data['race_data'] + horses = data['horses'] + + date = race_data.get('date', '') + track = race_data.get('track', '') + race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0) + + # Create date-based folder structure + date_dir = RACE_HISTORY_DIR / date.replace('-', '/') + date_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + note_content = create_race_history_note(race_data, horses) + filename = f"{track}-R{race_num}.md" + filepath = date_dir / filename + + with open(filepath, 'w') as f: + f.write(note_content) + + race_updated += 1 + + print(f"Updated {race_updated} race history notes") + + # Create/update index + index_content = create_index(horses_by_name) + index_path = DATABANK_DIR / 'Index.md' + with open(index_path, 'w') as f: + f.write(index_content) + + print("Updated Index.md") + + # Update README + readme_content = f"""# Horse Form Databank + +This folder contains the complete Australian Gallops horse form database. Every horse's form is tracked across all race meetings. + +## How It Works + +- **Auto-sync**: Daily form data from FormFav is downloaded and updated +- **Editable**: You can add notes, observations, and corrections +- **Linked**: All horses link to their race history, track records, and related horses +- **Searchable**: Use Obsidian search to find horses by name, form, stats, or notes + +## Last Updated + +- **Date**: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M')} +- **Races**: {len(races_by_key)} races cached +- **Horses**: {len(horses_by_name)} unique horses + +## Quick Links + +- [[Index]] — Master horse list +- [[Recent Form]] — Last 7 days of form updates +""" + + readme_path = DATABANK_DIR / 'README.md' + with open(readme_path, 'w') as f: + f.write(readme_content) + + print("Updated README.md") + print("=" * 60) + print("Sync complete!") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/tests/mock_formfav.py b/tests/mock_formfav.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2451f7f87b77213d42697c40b59249ef4f16c84f --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/mock_formfav.py @@ -0,0 +1,99 @@ +"""Mock FormFav responses for tests — no live API needed. + +Includes realistic race forms (matching the observed FormFav shape) and +designed edge cases: scratched runners, abandoned races, missing fields, +x/spell form strings, and incomplete data. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +from pathlib import Path + + +def meetings_payload(date: str = "2026-08-11") -> dict: + return { + "date": date, + "raceType": "gallops", + "meetings": [ + {"track": "Dubbo", "slug": "dubbo", "country": "au", "abandoned": False, + "races": [{"raceNumber": 1}, {"raceNumber": 2}]}, + {"track": "Randwick", "slug": "randwick", "country": "au", "abandoned": False, + "races": [{"raceNumber": 7}]}, + # non-AU meeting (must be filtered out) + {"track": "Riccarton", "slug": "riccarton", "country": "nz", "abandoned": False, + "races": [{"raceNumber": 1}]}, + ], + } + + +def race_form_full(date: str = "2026-08-11", track: str = "dubbo", race: int = 1) -> dict: + return { + "date": date, "track": track, "raceNumber": race, "raceName": "Maiden Plate", + "distance": "1200m", "condition": "Good 4", "weather": "Fine", "raceClass": "MDN", + "abandoned": False, "startTime": "2026-08-11T03:25:00Z", "timezone": "Australia/Sydney", + "prizeMoney": "30000", "numberOfRunners": 3, "trackSlug": track, + "runners": [ + {"number": 1, "name": "Speedy", "jockey": "J. Doe", "trainer": "A. Smith", + "weight": 57.0, "barrier": 2, "age": 4, "sex": "Gelding", + "careerPrizeMoney": "$25000", "form": "1x231", "last20Starts": "1x231", + "scratched": False, + "stats": {"overall": {"starts": 5, "wins": 1, "places": 3, "seconds": 1, + "thirds": 1, "winPercent": 20.0, "placePercent": 60.0}, + "track": {"starts": 2, "places": 1}, + "distance": {"starts": 1, "places": 1}, + "conditions": {"good": {"starts": 3, "places": 2}}}}, + {"number": 2, "name": "Stayer", "jockey": "K. Lee", "trainer": "B. Cole", + "weight": 58.5, "barrier": 7, "age": 5, "sex": "Mare", + "careerPrizeMoney": "$10000", "form": "45340", "last20Starts": "45340", + "scratched": False, + "stats": {"overall": {"starts": 4, "wins": 0, "places": 1, "seconds": 0, + "thirds": 1, "winPercent": 0.0, "placePercent": 25.0}, + "track": {"starts": 1, "places": 0}, + "distance": {"starts": 2, "places": 0}, + "conditions": {"good": {"starts": 2, "places": 1}}}}, + {"number": 3, "name": "Sprinter", "jockey": "M. Ray", "trainer": "C. Vu", + "weight": 55.0, "barrier": 1, "age": 3, "sex": "Filly", + "careerPrizeMoney": "$5000", "form": "22211", "last20Starts": "22211", + "scratched": False, + "stats": {"overall": {"starts": 6, "wins": 2, "places": 4, "seconds": 2, + "thirds": 0, "winPercent": 33.3, "placePercent": 66.6}, + "track": {"starts": 1, "places": 1}, + "distance": {"starts": 2, "places": 2}, + "conditions": {"good": {"starts": 3, "places": 2}}}}, + ], + } + + +def race_form_with_scratch_and_missing(date: str = "2026-08-11", track: str = "randwick", race: int = 7) -> dict: + return { + "date": date, "track": track, "raceNumber": race, "raceName": "Group 1 Sprint", + "distance": "1600m", "condition": "Soft 5", "raceClass": "G1", + "abandoned": False, "startTime": "2026-08-11T05:00:00Z", "timezone": "Australia/Sydney", + "numberOfRunners": 2, "trackSlug": track, + "runners": [ + {"number": 4, "name": "NoForm", "jockey": "J. X", "trainer": "T. Y", + "weight": 59.0, "barrier": 9, + # no 'form' field (falls back to last20Starts) + "last20Starts": "7777x", + "scratched": True, # scratched — must be excluded + "stats": {"overall": {"starts": 1, "wins": 0, "places": 0, + "winPercent": 0.0, "placePercent": 0.0}}}, + {"number": 8, "name": "OnlyOne", "jockey": "K. Z", "trainer": "L. W", + "weight": 56.0, "barrier": 3, "age": 4, "sex": "Gelding", + "careerPrizeMoney": "$40000", "form": "11122", + "scratched": False, + "stats": {"overall": {"starts": 8, "wins": 3, "places": 6, + "winPercent": 37.5, "placePercent": 75.0}, + "track": {"starts": 3, "places": 2}, + "distance": {"starts": 4, "places": 3}, + "conditions": {"soft": {"starts": 2, "places": 1}}}}, + # a third runner but with almost no data (tests graceful degradation) + {"number": 2, "name": "Ghost", "jockey": "P. Q", "trainer": "R. S", + "barrier": 12, "scratched": False, + "stats": {"overall": {"winPercent": 0.0, "placePercent": 0.0}}}, + ], + } + + +def race_form_abandoned(date: str = "2026-08-11", track: str = "dubbo", race: int = 2) -> dict: + return {"date": date, "track": track, "raceNumber": race, "abandoned": True, + "runners": []} diff --git a/tests/test_predictor.py b/tests/test_predictor.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7aabb833fe4a83683c5795be15c6364d03956e9c --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_predictor.py @@ -0,0 +1,288 @@ +"""Unit tests for the trifecta predictor. All tests run without live API access. + +Run: python -m unittest discover -s tests +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +import sys +import unittest +from pathlib import Path + +# Make package importable +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) + +from trifecta_bro.config import settings # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.data.normalizer import normalise_race, normalise_meeting # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.model.feature_engine import ( # noqa: E402 + parse_form_positions, form_quality_score, spell_count, is_fresh_after_spell) +from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace, pace_adjustment # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner, load_weights # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.model.probability import ( # noqa: E402 + generate_trifecta, compute_confidence, softmax_probabilities) +from trifecta_bro.model.analyse_race import analyse_race # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.data.storage import Storage # noqa: E402 +from trifecta_bro.evaluation.backtester import Backtester, _parse_actual # noqa: E402 +from tests.mock_formfav import ( # noqa: E402 + meetings_payload, race_form_full, race_form_with_scratch_and_missing, + race_form_abandoned) + +DB_PATH = ROOT / "data" / "test_trincta_bro.db" + + +def fresh_storage() -> Storage: + if DB_PATH.exists(): + DB_PATH.unlink() + return Storage(db_path=DB_PATH) + + +class TestDateLogic(unittest.TestCase): + def test_tomorrow_australia(self): + from trifecta_bro.jobs.daily_prediction import tomorrow_australia + # deterministic check: a known now -> next day + result = tomorrow_australia() + self.assertEqual(len(result), 10) + self.assertRegex(result, r"^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$") + + +class TestFormParsing(unittest.TestCase): + def test_positions_basic(self): + self.assertEqual(parse_form_positions("12345"), [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]) + + def test_x_is_spell_not_position(self): + pos = parse_form_positions("1x231") + self.assertEqual(pos, [1, None, 2, 3, 1]) + + def test_zero_is_tenth_or_worse(self): + pos = parse_form_positions("10") + self.assertEqual(pos, [1, 0]) + + def test_spell_count_and_fresh(self): + self.assertEqual(spell_count("1x23x"), 2) + self.assertTrue(is_fresh_after_spell("123x")) + self.assertFalse(is_fresh_after_spell("x123")) + + +class TestFormQuality(unittest.TestCase): + def test_strong_recent_form_scores_high(self): + score, diag = form_quality_score("11122") + self.assertGreater(score, 70) + self.assertGreater(diag["consistency"], 0.8) + + def test_poor_form_scores_low(self): + score, _ = form_quality_score("88880") + self.assertLess(score, 40) + + def test_spell_does_not_count_as_position(self): + score_with_spell, _ = form_quality_score("1x231") + score_no_spell, _ = form_quality_score("12231") + # spell slightly lowers availability but shouldn't be treated as a 10th + self.assertLess(score_with_spell, score_no_spell + 1) + + def test_empty_form(self): + score, diag = form_quality_score("") + self.assertEqual(score, 0.0) + self.assertIn("no form data", diag["reason"]) + + +class TestPace(unittest.TestCase): + def test_classify_and_roles(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + pace = classify_pace(race, race.active_runners) + self.assertIn(pace["label"], {"SLOW", "MODERATE", "FAST", "VERY FAST"}) + self.assertIn(1, pace["roles"]) + + def test_leader_advantaged_in_slow(self): + from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel + r = RunnerModel(number=1, barrier=1, win_percent=20.0) + slow = {"label": "SLOW", "roles": {1: "leader/on-speed"}} + self.assertGreater(pace_adjustment(r, slow), 0) + + def test_leader_penalised_in_fast(self): + from trifecta_bro.data.models import RunnerModel + r = RunnerModel(number=1, barrier=1, win_percent=20.0) + fast = {"label": "FAST", "roles": {1: "leader/on-speed"}} + self.assertLess(pace_adjustment(r, fast), 0) + + +class TestScoring(unittest.TestCase): + def test_weights_load_and_sums(self): + w = load_weights() + self.assertAlmostEqual(sum(w.values()), 1.0, places=2) + + def test_score_runner_runs(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + pace = classify_pace(race, race.active_runners) + w = load_weights() + res = score_runner(race.active_runners[0], race, pace, w) + self.assertIn("score", res) + self.assertGreaterEqual(res["score"], 0) + self.assertLessEqual(res["score"], 100) + + def test_missing_fields_graceful(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_with_scratch_and_missing()) + pace = classify_pace(race, race.active_runners) + w = load_weights() + # Ghost runner has almost no data; should not crash and returns a score + ghost = [r for r in race.active_runners if r.name == "Ghost"][0] + res = score_runner(ghost, race, pace, w) + self.assertIsInstance(res["score"], float) + + +class TestScratchedAbandoned(unittest.TestCase): + def test_scratched_excluded(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_with_scratch_and_missing()) + numbers = [r.number for r in race.active_runners] + self.assertNotIn(4, numbers) # scratched + self.assertIn(8, numbers) + + def test_abandoned_flag(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_abandoned()) + self.assertTrue(race.abandoned) + + def test_missing_form_falls_back(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_with_scratch_and_missing()) + only = [r for r in race.active_runners if r.name == "OnlyOne"][0] + self.assertTrue(only.form) # derived from last20Starts + + +class TestTrifectaGen(unittest.TestCase): + def test_generate_trifecta(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + a = analyse_race(race) + self.assertEqual(len(a["trifecta"]), 3) + self.assertCountEqual(a["top3"], a["trifecta"]) + self.assertIsInstance(a["alternatives"], list) + + def test_probabilities_sum_to_one(self): + probs = softmax_probabilities([50, 60, 70], temperature=12.0) + self.assertAlmostEqual(sum(probs), 1.0, places=3) + + def test_insufficient_runners_skips(self): + # build a 2-runner race + payload = race_form_full() + payload["runners"] = payload["runners"][:2] + race = normalise_race(payload) + a = analyse_race(race) + self.assertTrue(a.get("skippable")) + + +class TestConfidence(unittest.TestCase): + def test_confidence_categories(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + a = analyse_race(race) + self.assertIn(a["confidence"]["category"], {"HIGH", "MEDIUM", "LOW", "AVOID"}) + + def test_avoid_on_weak_leader(self): + from trifecta_bro.model.probability import compute_confidence + # fake ranking with weak leader + ranked = [{"number": 1, "score": 12.0}, {"number": 2, "score": 11.0}] + conf = compute_confidence(ranked, 0.9, {"label": "SLOW"}, {}) + self.assertEqual(conf["category"], "AVOID") + + +class TestValidation(unittest.TestCase): + def test_meetings_validation_flags_error(self): + from trifecta_bro.api.validator import validate_meetings + issues = validate_meetings({"foo": 1}) + self.assertTrue(any(i.level == "error" for i in issues)) + + def test_race_form_validation(self): + from trifecta_bro.api.validator import validate_race_form + issues = validate_race_form(race_form_full()) + self.assertFalse(any(i.level == "error" for i in issues)) + + +class TestStorage(unittest.TestCase): + def setUp(self): + self.store = fresh_storage() + + def tearDown(self): + self.store.close() + if DB_PATH.exists(): + DB_PATH.unlink() + + def test_upsert_and_read(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + rid = self.store.upsert_race(race) + self.assertGreater(rid, 0) + # save a prediction + self.store.save_prediction({ + "date": race.date, "track": race.track, "track_slug": race.track_slug, + "race_number": race.race_number, "model_version": "1.0.0", + "generated_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z", "top3": [3, 1, 2], + "trifecta": [3, 1, 2], "alternatives": [[1, 3, 2]], + "confidence": "MEDIUM", "confidence_score": 55, + "ranked_runners": [{"no": 3, "name": "x", "score": 70}], + "data_completeness": 0.9, + }) + preds = self.store.get_predictions(race.date) + self.assertEqual(len(preds), 1) + self.assertEqual(preds[0]["trifecta"], [3, 1, 2]) + + def test_save_result(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + self.store.upsert_race(race) + self.store.save_result(race.date, race.track, race.track_slug, race.race_number, [3, 1, 2]) + # re-saving is idempotent + self.store.save_result(race.date, race.track, race.track_slug, race.race_number, [3, 1, 2]) + + +class TestBacktester(unittest.TestCase): + def test_parse_actual_variants(self): + self.assertEqual(_parse_actual("1,7,9"), [1, 7, 9]) + self.assertEqual(_parse_actual([4, 5, 6]), [4, 5, 6]) + self.assertIsNone(_parse_actual("")) + self.assertIsNone(_parse_actual(None)) + + def test_backtest_no_leakage(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + # analyse WITHOUT actuals first + a = analyse_race(race) + pred = a["trifecta"] + # now compute metrics against actual — actual never fed to model + bt = Backtester() + result = bt.evaluate([race], {("dubbo", 1): [3, 1, 2]}) + rec = result["records"][0] + self.assertTrue(rec["scored"]) + # exact hit only if prediction matched the provided actual + self.assertEqual(rec["exact_hit"], (pred == [3, 1, 2])) + # metrics present + self.assertIn("exact_trifecta_hit_rate", result) + self.assertIn("top1_accuracy", result) + + def test_backtest_partial_coverage(self): + race = normalise_race(race_form_full()) + bt = Backtester() + result = bt.evaluate([race], {("dubbo", 1): [9, 9, 9]}) # none match + rec = result["records"][0] + self.assertEqual(rec["partial3"], 0) + + +class TestEndToEndMocked(unittest.TestCase): + def test_full_pipeline_with_fake_client(self): + from trifecta_bro.api.formfav_client import FormFavClient + + class FakeClient(FormFavClient): + def get_meetings(self, date, country=None, race_code=None): + return meetings_payload(date)["meetings"] + + def get_race_form(self, date, track, race, country=None, race_code=None, timezone=None): + if track == "dubbo" and race == 1: + return race_form_full(date, track, race) + if track == "dubbo" and race == 2: + return race_form_abandoned(date, track, race) + if track == "randwick" and race == 7: + return race_form_with_scratch_and_missing(date, track, race) + raise FileNotFoundError("no mock") + + # exercise analyse_race for each race form directly + for fn in (race_form_full, race_form_with_scratch_and_missing, race_form_abandoned): + race = normalise_race(fn()) + a = analyse_race(race) + self.assertIn("confidence", a) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + unittest.main(verbosity=2) diff --git a/trifecta_bro/__init__.py b/trifecta_bro/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e914e468b70df0667e9d8ac2edd90498c8ad4f30 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +"""Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictor. + +A transparent, config-driven scoring system that pulls tomorrow's Australian +gallops meetings + fields from the FormFav API, ranks runners, and emits +trifecta combinations, confidence, and explanations — without ever pretending +a prediction is guaranteed. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +__version__ = "1.0.0" + +from .config.settings import Settings + +settings = Settings() + + +def model_version() -> str: + return __version__ diff --git a/trifecta_bro/api/formfav_client.py b/trifecta_bro/api/formfav_client.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e8383339c221071f3730239bcc530b5e5777bd87 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/api/formfav_client.py @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +"""FormFav API client. + +Server-side only. Uses X-API-Key header (NOT Authorization: Bearer). +Handles retry/backoff, timeouts, caching, and graceful degradation when +premium fields (e.g. /predictions) are unavailable. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import hashlib +import json +import logging +import time +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any, Optional + +import httpx + +from ..config import settings + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.api") + + +class FormFavError(Exception): + """Base error for FormFav interactions.""" + + +class FormFavAuthError(FormFavError): + """401/403 — key missing or lacks entitlement.""" + + +class FormFavNotFoundError(FormFavError): + """404 — invalid meeting/race params.""" + + +class FormFavClient: + def __init__( + self, + api_key: Optional[str] = None, + base_url: Optional[str] = None, + cache_dir: Optional[Path] = None, + cache_ttl: Optional[int] = None, + timeout: Optional[float] = None, + max_retries: Optional[int] = None, + ) -> None: + self.api_key = api_key if api_key is not None else settings.api_key + self.base_url = (base_url or settings.base_url).rstrip("/") + self.cache_dir = Path(cache_dir or settings.cache_dir) + self.cache_ttl = cache_ttl if cache_ttl is not None else settings.cache_ttl_seconds + self.timeout = timeout if timeout is not None else settings.http_timeout + self.max_retries = max_retries if max_retries is not None else settings.max_retries + self.cache_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + + # ----- low level ----- + def _headers(self) -> dict[str, str]: + if not self.api_key: + raise FormFavAuthError("FORMFAV_API_KEY is not set in the environment.") + return {"X-API-Key": self.api_key, "Accept": "application/json"} + + def _cache_path(self, key: str) -> Path: + h = hashlib.sha1(key.encode()).hexdigest()[:16] + return self.cache_dir / f"{h}.json" + + def _cache_get(self, key: str) -> Optional[Any]: + p = self._cache_path(key) + if not p.exists(): + return None + try: + if time.time() - p.stat().st_mtime > self.cache_ttl: + return None + return json.loads(p.read_text()) + except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover - defensive + logger.warning("cache read failed: %s", exc) + return None + + def _cache_set(self, key: str, value: Any) -> None: + try: + self._cache_path(key).write_text(json.dumps(value)) + except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover - defensive + logger.warning("cache write failed: %s", exc) + + def _request(self, path: str, params: dict[str, Any]) -> Any: + url = f"{self.base_url}{path}" + cache_key = f"{path}?{sorted((k, str(v)) for k, v in params.items())}" + cached = self._cache_get(cache_key) + if cached is not None: + logger.info("cache hit: %s", path) + return cached + + last_exc: Optional[Exception] = None + for attempt in range(1, self.max_retries + 1): + try: + with httpx.Client(timeout=self.timeout) as client: + resp = client.get(url, headers=self._headers(), params=params) + if resp.status_code == 401: + raise FormFavAuthError("401 Unauthorized — check FORMFAV_API_KEY") + if resp.status_code == 403: + raise FormFavAuthError("403 Forbidden — key lacks entitlement for this endpoint") + if resp.status_code == 404: + raise FormFavNotFoundError(f"404 Not Found: {url} params={params}") + resp.raise_for_status() + data = resp.json() + self._cache_set(cache_key, data) + return data + except (FormFavAuthError, FormFavNotFoundError): + raise + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - retry transient errors + last_exc = exc + wait = min(2 ** attempt, 30) + logger.warning("request attempt %s failed: %s (retry in %ss)", attempt, exc, wait) + if attempt < self.max_retries: + time.sleep(wait) + raise FormFavError(f"FormFav request failed after {self.max_retries} attempts: {last_exc}") + + # ----- endpoints ----- + def get_meetings(self, date: str, country: Optional[str] = None, + race_code: Optional[str] = None) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + params = {"date": date} + if country or settings.country: + params["country"] = country or settings.country + if race_code or settings.race_code: + params["race_code"] = race_code or settings.race_code + data = self._request("/form/meetings", params) + return data.get("meetings", []) + + def get_race_form(self, date: str, track: str, race: int | str, + country: Optional[str] = None, + race_code: Optional[str] = None, + timezone: Optional[str] = None) -> dict[str, Any]: + params = { + "date": date, + "track": track, + "race": race, + "country": country or settings.country, + "race_code": race_code or settings.race_code, + } + if timezone or settings.default_timezone: + params["timezone"] = timezone or settings.default_timezone + return self._request("/form", params) + + def get_race_predictions(self, date: str, track: str, race: int | str, + country: Optional[str] = None, + race_code: Optional[str] = None) -> Optional[dict[str, Any]]: + """Premium endpoint. Returns None when the key lacks entitlement.""" + params = { + "date": date, "track": track, "race": race, + "country": country or settings.country, + "race_code": race_code or settings.race_code, + } + try: + return self._request("/predictions", params) + except FormFavAuthError: + logger.info("/predictions unavailable (403) — falling back to local model only") + return None diff --git a/trifecta_bro/api/validator.py b/trifecta_bro/api/validator.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ddf40c6267bd0e6c18f646d8e4653abbc13e7850 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/api/validator.py @@ -0,0 +1,57 @@ +"""Response validation for FormFav payloads. + +Guards against shape drift / missing fields. Never fabricates missing data — +it records what was present so the scoring model can degrade gracefully. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +from typing import Any + + +class ValidationIssue: + def __init__(self, level: str, field: str, message: str) -> None: + self.level = level # 'error' | 'warn' + self.field = field + self.message = message + + def __repr__(self) -> str: + return f"[{self.level}] {self.field}: {self.message}" + + +def validate_meetings(payload: Any) -> list[ValidationIssue]: + issues: list[ValidationIssue] = [] + if not isinstance(payload, dict): + return [ValidationIssue("error", "payload", "meetings payload is not an object")] + meetings = payload.get("meetings") + if not isinstance(meetings, list): + issues.append(ValidationIssue("error", "meetings", "missing 'meetings' array")) + return issues + for i, m in enumerate(meetings): + if not isinstance(m, dict): + issues.append(ValidationIssue("error", f"meetings[{i}]", "meeting is not an object")) + continue + if "slug" not in m and "track" not in m: + issues.append(ValidationIssue("warn", f"meetings[{i}]", "no slug/track")) + if "races" not in m: + issues.append(ValidationIssue("warn", f"meetings[{i}]", "no 'races' array")) + return issues + + +def validate_race_form(payload: Any) -> list[ValidationIssue]: + issues: list[ValidationIssue] = [] + if not isinstance(payload, dict): + return [ValidationIssue("error", "payload", "race form payload is not an object")] + if "runners" not in payload: + issues.append(ValidationIssue("error", "runners", "missing 'runners' array")) + else: + runners = payload["runners"] + if not isinstance(runners, list): + issues.append(ValidationIssue("error", "runners", "'runners' is not a list")) + else: + for i, r in enumerate(runners): + if not isinstance(r, dict): + issues.append(ValidationIssue("error", f"runners[{i}]", "runner not an object")) + continue + if "number" not in r and "barrier" not in r: + issues.append(ValidationIssue("warn", f"runners[{i}]", "runner missing number/barrier")) + return issues diff --git a/trifecta_bro/config/__init__.py b/trifecta_bro/config/__init__.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b708c684fe9c8a056a7620858ed2309c1e39e549 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/config/__init__.py @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +"""Configuration package. + +Exposes a singleton `settings` instance used across the app. +""" +from .settings import Settings + +settings = Settings() + +__all__ = ["Settings", "settings"] diff --git a/trifecta_bro/config/distance_profiles.yaml b/trifecta_bro/config/distance_profiles.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3cd99e29c9d2cdaa494177214d1f55c61ce754a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/config/distance_profiles.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +# Distance-specific weight profiles for Australian Gallops model. +# These are tuned independently per distance class via backtesting. + +# Sprint: 1000-1200m +# Barrier, pace map, and early speed are critical +sprint: + form: 0.18 + class: 0.12 + distance: 0.08 + track: 0.08 + track_distance: 0.10 + condition: 0.04 + jockey: 0.04 + fitness: 0.04 + barrier: 0.14 + weight: 0.08 + pace: 0.10 + +# Middle: 1400-1600m +# Balanced profile — form consistency and distance aptitude +middle: + form: 0.18 + class: 0.14 + distance: 0.10 + track: 0.08 + track_distance: 0.10 + condition: 0.05 + jockey: 0.06 + fitness: 0.07 + barrier: 0.08 + weight: 0.07 + pace: 0.07 + +# Staying: 1600m+ +# Fitness, distance aptitude, jockey/trainer matter most +staying: + form: 0.16 + class: 0.16 + distance: 0.12 + track: 0.08 + track_distance: 0.10 + condition: 0.06 + jockey: 0.08 + fitness: 0.10 + barrier: 0.04 + weight: 0.06 + pace: 0.04 diff --git a/trifecta_bro/config/settings.py b/trifecta_bro/config/settings.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a000e91e560c03ca605a420299a3bd6d6a6adaa3 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/config/settings.py @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +"""Application settings. + +All secrets come from the environment. The API key is NEVER read, printed, +stored in source, or embedded in reports. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import os +from pathlib import Path + +PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] + + +class Settings: + def __init__(self) -> None: + self.project_root = PROJECT_ROOT + self.base_url = os.environ.get("FORMFAV_BASE_URL", "https://api.formfav.com/v1") + # Read only into a private var; never expose via repr/str. + self._api_key = os.environ.get("FORMFAV_API_KEY", "") + self.country = os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_COUNTRY", "au") + self.race_code = os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_RACE_CODE", "gallops") + self.default_timezone = os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_TIMEZONE", "Australia/Sydney") + self.cache_ttl_seconds = int(os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_CACHE_TTL", "86400")) + self.cache_dir = Path(os.environ.get( + "TRIFECTA_CACHE_DIR", str(PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "cache"))) + self.db_path = Path(os.environ.get( + "TRIFECTA_DB_PATH", str(PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "trifecta_bro.db"))) + self.predictions_dir = PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "predictions" + self.reports_dir = PROJECT_ROOT / "data" / "reports" + self.weights_path = Path(os.environ.get( + "TRIFECTA_WEIGHTS_PATH", str(PROJECT_ROOT / "trifecta_bro" / "config" / "weights.yaml"))) + self.model_version = os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_MODEL_VERSION", "2.0.0") + self.http_timeout = float(os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_HTTP_TIMEOUT", "20")) + self.max_retries = int(os.environ.get("TRIFECTA_MAX_RETRIES", "3")) + + @property + def api_key(self) -> str: + return self._api_key + + @property + def has_api_key(self) -> bool: + return bool(self._api_key) + + def __repr__(self) -> str: # pragma: no cover - never leak key + return f"" + + @property + def cache_enabled(self) -> bool: + return True diff --git a/trifecta_bro/config/weights.yaml b/trifecta_bro/config/weights.yaml new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6c2e84af50a1726e9c92b63dfea7cf5f3a2c3b6d --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/config/weights.yaml @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +# Trifecta predictor scoring weights (v1 baseline). +# These are STARTING weights — not claimed optimal. They are centrally +# configurable and will be tuned against historical prediction/result data +# by the backtester. Changes here require NO code edits. +# +# Category weights must sum to ~1.0 (they are normalised at load time, so an +# approximate sum is fine). Each component produces a 0..100 sub-score; the +# final runner score is the weighted blend. + +weights: + form: 0.16 # recent form quality + class: 0.12 # race-class suitability vs runner history + distance: 0.08 # distance suitability from historical distance stats + track: 0.08 # historical performance at this track + track_distance: 0.08 # NEW: specific track+distance combo (most specific signal) + condition: 0.05 # track-condition performance + jockey: 0.06 # form consistency (low stddev of recent positions) + fitness: 0.07 # NEW: first-up + second-up strike rates + barrier: 0.08 # barrier suitability (distance-aware) + weight: 0.07 # weight handling (higher weight = better in handicaps) + pace: 0.05 # race-shape / speed-map adjustment + market: 0.10 # NEW: market odds (SP) implied probability (Betfair API) + +# Confidence model knobs (calibration only — never a guarantee). +confidence: + # separation (in final-score points) between #1 and #2 for a HIGH conf race + high_separation: 18.0 + medium_separation: 9.0 + # minimum data completeness (0..1) to allow HIGH + high_min_completeness: 0.85 + medium_min_completeness: 0.6 + # # of competitive runners (within X pts of leader) that caps confidence + competitive_band: 8.0 + max_competitive_runners_for_high: 3 + max_competitive_runners_for_medium: 6 + +# Trifecta generation. +trifecta: + # number of saver permutations to emit when justified + max_savers: 6 + # only emit a saver if its joint model-probability >= this fraction of primary + min_saver_prob_ratio: 0.18 + # skip a race entirely (AVOID) if top3 spread / leader score below this + min_leader_score_for_prediction: 30.0 diff --git a/trifecta_bro/data/models.py b/trifecta_bro/data/models.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..52cb86c7b9bb5de2af9fb1384fb58cef00331a2b --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/data/models.py @@ -0,0 +1,66 @@ +"""Pydantic data models — the consistent internal representation.""" +from __future__ import annotations + +from pydantic import BaseModel, Field +from typing import Optional, Any + + +class RunnerModel(BaseModel): + number: int + name: str = "" + jockey: Optional[str] = None + trainer: Optional[str] = None + weight: Optional[float] = None + barrier: Optional[int] = None + age: Optional[int] = None + sex: Optional[str] = None + career_prize_money: Optional[float] = None + form: str = "" + last20_starts: str = "" + scratched: bool = False + stats: dict[str, Any] = Field(default_factory=dict) + # extracted helpers + data_completeness: float = 1.0 # 0..1 of expected fields present + + @property + def overall(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + return self.stats.get("overall", {}) + + @property + def win_percent(self) -> float: + return float(self.overall.get("winPercent", 0) or 0) + + @property + def place_percent(self) -> float: + return float(self.overall.get("placePercent", 0) or 0) + + +class RaceModel(BaseModel): + date: str + track: str + track_slug: str = "" + race_number: int + race_name: str = "" + distance: Optional[str] = None + condition: Optional[str] = None + weather: Optional[str] = None + race_class: Optional[str] = None + abandoned: bool = False + start_time: Optional[str] = None + timezone: Optional[str] = None + prize_money: Optional[str] = None + number_of_runners: int = 0 + runners: list[RunnerModel] = Field(default_factory=list) + source_warnings: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list) + + @property + def active_runners(self) -> list[RunnerModel]: + return [r for r in self.runners if not r.scratched] + + +class MeetingModel(BaseModel): + track: str + slug: str = "" + country: str = "" + abandoned: bool = False + races: list[int] = Field(default_factory=list) diff --git a/trifecta_bro/data/normalizer.py b/trifecta_bro/data/normalizer.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..28b7bd9db13390f4297f3ff1a5faa203a488bb09 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/data/normalizer.py @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +"""Normalise raw FormFav payloads into internal models. + +Key responsibilities: +- drop scratched runners from the active set (but keep record) +- mark abandoned races +- never invent missing values; track data_completeness instead +- tolerate missing `form` (fall back to `last20Starts`) +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import logging +from typing import Any + +from .models import RaceModel, RunnerModel, MeetingModel + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.normalizer") + +EXPECTED_RUNNER_FIELDS = [ + "name", "jockey", "trainer", "weight", "barrier", "age", + "careerPrizeMoney", "form", "stats", +] + + +def _to_float(value: Any) -> float | None: + if value is None: + return None + try: + return float(str(value).replace("$", "").replace(",", "")) + except (ValueError, TypeError): + return None + + +def _normalise_runner(raw: dict[str, Any]) -> RunnerModel: + present = sum(1 for f in EXPECTED_RUNNER_FIELDS if raw.get(f) not in (None, "", {})) + completeness = present / len(EXPECTED_RUNNER_FIELDS) + return RunnerModel( + number=int(raw.get("number", 0)), + name=raw.get("name", "") or "", + jockey=raw.get("jockey"), + trainer=raw.get("trainer"), + weight=_to_float(raw.get("weight")), + barrier=int(raw["barrier"]) if raw.get("barrier") not in (None, "") else None, + age=int(raw["age"]) if raw.get("age") not in (None, "") else None, + sex=raw.get("sex"), + career_prize_money=_to_float(raw.get("careerPrizeMoney")), + form=raw.get("form") or raw.get("last20Starts") or "", + last20_starts=raw.get("last20Starts") or raw.get("form") or "", + scratched=bool(raw.get("scratched", False)), + stats=raw.get("stats", {}) or {}, + data_completeness=round(completeness, 3), + ) + + +def normalise_race(payload: dict[str, Any]) -> RaceModel: + warnings: list[str] = [] + raw_runners = payload.get("runners", []) or [] + runners = [_normalise_runner(r) for r in raw_runners] + active = [r for r in runners if not r.scratched] + if len(active) < 3: + warnings.append(f"only {len(active)} active runners after scratches") + + # distance may be like "1200m" + dist = payload.get("distance") + nrun = payload.get("numberOfRunners") + if nrun is None: + nrun = len(active) + + return RaceModel( + date=payload.get("date", ""), + track=payload.get("track", ""), + track_slug=payload.get("trackSlug") or payload.get("slug") or payload.get("track", "").lower(), + race_number=int(payload.get("raceNumber", payload.get("race", 0))), + race_name=payload.get("raceName", "") or "", + distance=str(dist) if dist is not None else None, + condition=payload.get("condition"), + weather=payload.get("weather"), + race_class=payload.get("raceClass"), + abandoned=bool(payload.get("abandoned", False)), + start_time=payload.get("startTime"), + timezone=payload.get("timezone"), + prize_money=str(payload.get("prizeMoney")) if payload.get("prizeMoney") is not None else None, + number_of_runners=int(nrun) if nrun is not None else 0, + runners=runners, + source_warnings=warnings, + ) + + +def normalise_meeting(raw: dict[str, Any]) -> MeetingModel: + races = [] + for r in raw.get("races", []) or []: + rn = r.get("raceNumber") if isinstance(r, dict) else None + if rn is not None: + races.append(int(rn)) + return MeetingModel( + track=raw.get("track", ""), + slug=raw.get("slug", "") or raw.get("track", "").lower(), + country=raw.get("country", ""), + abandoned=bool(raw.get("abandoned", False)), + races=sorted(set(races)), + ) diff --git a/trifecta_bro/data/storage.py b/trifecta_bro/data/storage.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..00fc14ac37265b1d2bdb72af63f8d2b437b9d6fb --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/data/storage.py @@ -0,0 +1,181 @@ +"""SQLite persistence for races, runners, predictions and results. + +No external DB dependency — uses the stdlib sqlite3 module. +Models are versioned so historical predictions can be compared over time. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import sqlite3 +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +from ..config import settings +from .models import RaceModel, RunnerModel + + +_SCHEMA = """ +CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS races ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT, + date TEXT NOT NULL, + track TEXT NOT NULL, + track_slug TEXT, + race_number INTEGER NOT NULL, + race_name TEXT, + distance TEXT, + condition TEXT, + race_class TEXT, + abandoned INTEGER DEFAULT 0, + start_time TEXT, + timezone TEXT, + number_of_runners INTEGER, + UNIQUE(date, track_slug, race_number) +); +CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS runners ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT, + race_id INTEGER NOT NULL, + number INTEGER, + name TEXT, + jockey TEXT, + trainer TEXT, + barrier INTEGER, + weight REAL, + form TEXT, + data_completeness REAL, + FOREIGN KEY(race_id) REFERENCES races(id) +); +CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS predictions ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT, + date TEXT NOT NULL, + track TEXT NOT NULL, + track_slug TEXT, + race_number INTEGER NOT NULL, + model_version TEXT, + generated_at TEXT, + top3 TEXT, -- json list of runner numbers + trifecta TEXT, -- json [1st,2nd,3rd] + alternatives TEXT, -- json list of [a,b,c] + confidence TEXT, + confidence_score REAL, + ranked_runners TEXT, -- json full ranking w/ scores + data_completeness REAL, + UNIQUE(date, track_slug, race_number, model_version) +); +CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS results ( + id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT, + date TEXT NOT NULL, + track TEXT NOT NULL, + track_slug TEXT, + race_number INTEGER NOT NULL, + actual_trifecta TEXT, -- json [1st,2nd,3rd] or nulls + exact_hit INTEGER, + box_hit INTEGER, + top1_hit INTEGER, + UNIQUE(date, track_slug, race_number) +); +""" + + +class Storage: + def __init__(self, db_path: Optional[Path] = None) -> None: + self.db_path = Path(db_path or settings.db_path) + self.db_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + self.conn = sqlite3.connect(str(self.db_path)) + self.conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row + self.conn.executescript(_SCHEMA) + self.conn.commit() + + def close(self) -> None: + self.conn.close() + + def upsert_race(self, race: RaceModel) -> int: + cur = self.conn.cursor() + cur.execute( + """INSERT INTO races + (date, track, track_slug, race_number, race_name, distance, condition, + race_class, abandoned, start_time, timezone, number_of_runners) + VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?) + ON CONFLICT(date, track_slug, race_number) + DO UPDATE SET race_name=excluded.race_name, distance=excluded.distance, + condition=excluded.condition, race_class=excluded.race_class, + abandoned=excluded.abandoned, start_time=excluded.start_time, + timezone=excluded.timezone, number_of_runners=excluded.number_of_runners""", + (race.date, race.track, race.track_slug, race.race_number, race.race_name, + race.distance, race.condition, race.race_class, int(race.abandoned), + race.start_time, race.timezone, race.number_of_runners), + ) + self.conn.commit() + cur.execute( + "SELECT id FROM races WHERE date=? AND track_slug=? AND race_number=?", + (race.date, race.track_slug, race.race_number), + ) + rid = cur.fetchone()["id"] + # refresh runners (delete+insert for simplicity) + cur.execute("DELETE FROM runners WHERE race_id=?", (rid,)) + for r in race.runners: + cur.execute( + """INSERT INTO runners (race_id, number, name, jockey, trainer, barrier, weight, form, data_completeness) + VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)""", + (rid, r.number, r.name, r.jockey, r.trainer, r.barrier, r.weight, + r.form, r.data_completeness), + ) + self.conn.commit() + return rid + + def save_prediction(self, record: dict) -> None: + self.conn.execute( + """INSERT INTO predictions + (date, track, track_slug, race_number, model_version, generated_at, + top3, trifecta, alternatives, confidence, confidence_score, + ranked_runners, data_completeness) + VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?) + ON CONFLICT(date, track_slug, race_number, model_version) + DO UPDATE SET generated_at=excluded.generated_at, top3=excluded.top3, + trifecta=excluded.trifecta, alternatives=excluded.alternatives, + confidence=excluded.confidence, confidence_score=excluded.confidence_score, + ranked_runners=excluded.ranked_runners, data_completeness=excluded.data_completeness""", + (record["date"], record["track"], record.get("track_slug", ""), + record["race_number"], record.get("model_version", settings.model_version), + record.get("generated_at"), json.dumps(record.get("top3")), + json.dumps(record.get("trifecta")), json.dumps(record.get("alternatives")), + record.get("confidence"), record.get("confidence_score"), + json.dumps(record.get("ranked_runners")), record.get("data_completeness")), + ) + self.conn.commit() + + def save_result(self, date: str, track: str, track_slug: str, + race_number: int, actual_trifecta: Optional[list]) -> None: + exact = box = top1 = None + if actual_trifecta and len(actual_trifecta) >= 3 and all(isinstance(x, int) for x in actual_trifecta[:3]): + top1 = int(actual_trifecta[0]) + # exact/box require joining to predictions; computed in evaluation + self.conn.execute( + """INSERT INTO results (date, track, track_slug, race_number, actual_trifecta, exact_hit, box_hit, top1_hit) + VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?) + ON CONFLICT(date, track_slug, race_number) + DO UPDATE SET actual_trifecta=excluded.actual_trifecta""", + (date, track, track_slug, race_number, json.dumps(actual_trifecta), + exact, box, top1), + ) + self.conn.commit() + + def get_predictions(self, date: str, model_version: Optional[str] = None) -> list[dict]: + if model_version: + rows = self.conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM predictions WHERE date=? AND model_version=?", (date, model_version)).fetchall() + else: + rows = self.conn.execute("SELECT * FROM predictions WHERE date=?", (date,)).fetchall() + out = [] + for r in rows: + d = dict(r) + for k in ("top3", "trifecta", "alternatives", "ranked_runners"): + if d.get(k): + d[k] = json.loads(d[k]) + out.append(d) + return out + + def __enter__(self): + return self + + def __exit__(self, *exc): + self.close() diff --git a/trifecta_bro/evaluation/backtest.py b/trifecta_bro/evaluation/backtest.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..90dcbfdc0b83dbe0dd8fc3995be7b61c8fd9512b --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/evaluation/backtest.py @@ -0,0 +1,212 @@ +"""Backtesting harness for trifecta model optimization. + +Evaluates any weight profile against historical results with: +- Leave-one-day-out cross-validation +- Grid search over weight space +- Statistical significance testing +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import itertools +import json +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.backtest") + + +def evaluate_prediction(pred_nums: list[int], actual_nums: list[int]) -> dict: + """Compare a prediction against actual results.""" + if not pred_nums or not actual_nums: + return {"exact": False, "box": False, "top1": False, "top3": 0} + + return { + "exact": pred_nums == actual_nums, + "box": set(pred_nums) == set(actual_nums), + "top1": pred_nums[0] == actual_nums[0], + "top3": len(set(pred_nums) & set(actual_nums)), + } + + +def evaluate_day( + predictions: list[dict], + results: list[dict], +) -> dict: + """Evaluate all predictions for a single day.""" + # Build result lookup + result_lookup = {} + for r in results: + key = (r.get("track", ""), r.get("race", 0)) + actual = r.get("trifecta", []) + if actual: + result_lookup[key] = actual + + stats = { + "total": 0, + "exact": 0, + "box": 0, + "top1": 0, + "top3_total": 0, + } + + for pred in predictions: + track = pred.get("track", "") + race = pred.get("race", 0) + pred_nums = pred.get("trifecta", []) + actual = result_lookup.get((track, race)) + + if not actual or pred.get("skipped"): + continue + + stats["total"] += 1 + result = evaluate_prediction(pred_nums, actual) + stats["exact"] += result["exact"] + stats["box"] += result["box"] + stats["top1"] += result["top1"] + stats["top3_total"] += result["top3"] + + if stats["total"] > 0: + stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100 + stats["top3_pct"] = stats["top3_total"] / (stats["total"] * 3) * 100 + + return stats + + +def load_day_data(date: str, data_dir: str = "/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data") -> tuple: + """Load predictions and results for a single day.""" + # Load predictions + pred_path = Path(data_dir) / "reports" / f"predictions-{date}.json" + if not pred_path.exists(): + return [], [] + + with open(pred_path) as f: + pred_data = json.load(f) + predictions = pred_data.get("predictions", []) + + # Load results + results = [] + + # Helper to parse runner numbers (handle "13e" emergency runners) + def parse_num(s): + return int(str(s).replace("e", "").replace("E", "")) + + # Try multiple result file formats + result_path = Path(data_dir) / "results" / f"{date}.json" + if result_path.exists(): + with open(result_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + if "tracks" in rdata: + for track, races in rdata["tracks"].items(): + if isinstance(races, list): + for r in races: + if "trifecta" in r: + results.append({ + "track": track, + "race": r.get("race", r.get("race_number", 0)), + "trifecta": [parse_num(x) for x in r["trifecta"]], + }) + elif isinstance(races, dict): + for rn, r in races.items(): + if "runners" in r: + runners = r.get("runners", []) + winners = [] + for runner in runners: + pos = runner.get("position") + if pos and pos <= 3: + winners.append((pos, runner["number"])) + winners.sort() + actual = [w[1] for w in winners] + if actual: + results.append({ + "track": track, + "race": int(rn), + "trifecta": actual, + }) + + # Try alternate result file + alt_path = Path(data_dir) / "results" / f"{date}-ra.json" + if alt_path.exists() and not results: + with open(alt_path) as f: + rdata = json.load(f) + for track, races in rdata.items(): + for r in races: + if "trifecta" in r: + results.append({ + "track": track, + "race": r["race"], + "trifecta": [parse_num(x) for x in r["trifecta"]], + }) + + return predictions, results + + +def cross_validate( + dates: list[str], + weight_profile: dict, +) -> dict: + """Run leave-one-day-out cross-validation.""" + all_predictions = {} + all_results = {} + + for date in dates: + predictions, results = load_day_data(date) + if predictions and results: + all_predictions[date] = predictions + all_results[date] = results + + if not all_predictions: + return {"error": "No data loaded"} + + # Evaluate each day + day_stats = {} + for date in sorted(all_predictions.keys()): + stats = evaluate_day(all_predictions[date], all_results[date]) + day_stats[date] = stats + + # Aggregate + total_races = sum(s["total"] for s in day_stats.values()) + total_top1 = sum(s["top1"] for s in day_stats.values()) + total_exact = sum(s["exact"] for s in day_stats.values()) + + return { + "dates": list(day_stats.keys()), + "day_stats": day_stats, + "total_races": total_races, + "total_top1": total_top1, + "total_exact": total_exact, + "top1_pct": total_top1 / total_races * 100 if total_races > 0 else 0, + "profile": weight_profile, + } + + +def grid_search( + dates: list[str], + param_grid: dict, + base_profile: dict, +) -> list[dict]: + """Grid search over weight combinations.""" + results = [] + + # Generate all combinations + param_names = list(param_grid.keys()) + param_values = [param_grid[name] for name in param_names] + + for combo in itertools.product(*param_values): + profile = dict(base_profile) + for name, value in zip(param_names, combo): + profile[name] = value + + # Normalize weights to sum to 1.0 + total_w = sum(profile.values()) + if total_w > 0: + profile = {k: v / total_w for k, v in profile.items()} + + # Evaluate + cv_result = cross_validate(dates, profile) + cv_result["params"] = dict(zip(param_names, combo)) + results.append(cv_result) + + # Sort by top1_pct + results.sort(key=lambda x: x.get("top1_pct", 0), reverse=True) + return results diff --git a/trifecta_bro/evaluation/backtester.py b/trifecta_bro/evaluation/backtester.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..60d5bd58904a5ea3b15632cc3d77de01c3e59bb8 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/evaluation/backtester.py @@ -0,0 +1,154 @@ +"""Backtesting & evaluation. + +Computes out-of-sample-style metrics by replaying the deterministic scoring +model over historical races whose ACTUAL results are already known. Crucially, +the model only ever sees pre-race fields (form/stats) — the actual finishing +order is never fed back into scoring, so there is no data leakage. + +Run: + python -m trifecta_bro.evaluation.backtester --date 2026-08-10 +or programmatically: + from trifecta_bro.evaluation.backtester import Backtester + bt = Backtester() + bt.evaluate_date("2026-08-10", actuals_by_race) +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import json +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +from ..config import settings +from ..data.models import RaceModel +from ..data.normalizer import normalise_race +from ..model.analyse_race import analyse_race +from ..model.scoring import load_weights + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.backtest") + + +def _parse_actual(value) -> Optional[list]: + """actual may be '1,7,9' or [1,7,9] or None.""" + if value is None: + return None + if isinstance(value, str): + if "," not in value and value.strip() == "": + return None + return [int(x) for x in value.split(",") if x.strip()] + if isinstance(value, list): + return [int(x) for x in value] + return None + + +class Backtester: + def __init__(self, weights: Optional[dict] = None) -> None: + self.weights = weights or load_weights() + + def evaluate_race(self, race: RaceModel, actual: Optional[list]) -> dict: + analysis = analyse_race(race, weights=self.weights) + rec = {"track": race.track, "race": race.race_number, "skipped": analysis.get("skippable")} + if analysis.get("skippable") or not actual or len(actual) < 3: + rec["scored"] = False + return rec + a = [int(x) for x in actual[:3]] + pred_tri = analysis["trifecta"] + top3 = analysis["top3"] + rec["scored"] = True + rec["actual"] = a + rec["predicted_trifecta"] = pred_tri + rec["top1_hit"] = (a[0] == pred_tri[0]) if pred_tri else False + rec["exact_hit"] = (pred_tri == a) + rec["box_hit"] = (set(pred_tri) == set(a)) if pred_tri else False + # partial coverage: how many of actual top3 are in predicted top3 set + rec["partial3"] = len(set(a) & set(top3)) if top3 else 0 + rec["confidence"] = analysis["confidence"]["category"] + rec["confidence_score"] = analysis["confidence"]["score"] + return rec + + def evaluate(self, races: list[RaceModel], actuals: dict) -> dict: + records = [] + for race in races: + key = (race.track_slug or race.track.lower(), race.race_number) + actual = actuals.get(key) or actuals.get((race.track, race.race_number)) + records.append(self.evaluate_race(race, actual)) + scored = [r for r in records if r.get("scored")] + n = max(1, len(scored)) + # calibration: avg confidence where exact hit vs not + exact = sum(1 for r in scored if r["exact_hit"]) + box = sum(1 for r in scored if r["box_hit"]) + top1 = sum(1 for r in scored if r["top1_hit"]) + partial_sum = sum(r["partial3"] for r in scored) + avg_conf = sum(r["confidence_score"] for r in scored) / n + # place accuracy ~ partial3 >= 2 of 3 + place = sum(1 for r in scored if r["partial3"] >= 2) + return { + "races_total": len(records), + "races_scored": n, + "top1_accuracy": round(top1 / n, 4), + "place_accuracy": round(place / n, 4), + "trifecta_box_hit_rate": round(box / n, 4), + "exact_trifecta_hit_rate": round(exact / n, 4), + "avg_partial_coverage_of_3": round(partial_sum / n, 4), + "avg_confidence": round(avg_conf, 2), + "records": records, + } + + # ----- convenience loaders ----- + @staticmethod + def load_races_from_payloads(payloads: list[dict]) -> list[RaceModel]: + return [normalise_race(p) for p in payloads] + + def evaluate_date(self, date: str, actuals: dict) -> dict: + """Evaluate against race-form payloads stored on disk (e.g. predictions file).""" + from ..data.storage import Storage + # Prefer stored races; fall back to a predictions JSON file with 'form'. + with Storage() as s: + rows = s.conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM races WHERE date=?", (date,)).fetchall() + if rows: + races = [] + for row in rows: + runners = s.conn.execute( + "SELECT * FROM runners WHERE race_id=?", (row["id"],)).fetchall() + payload = dict(row) + payload["runners"] = [dict(r) for r in runners] + payload["raceNumber"] = row["race_number"] + payload["trackSlug"] = row["track_slug"] + races.append(normalise_race(payload)) + return self.evaluate(races, actuals) + # fallback: a predictions file containing 'form' blocks + pfile = settings.project_root / "data" / "predictions" / f"predictions-{date}.json" + if pfile.exists(): + data = json.loads(pfile.read_text()) + races = [normalise_race(r["form"]) for r in data.get("races", [])] + return self.evaluate(races, actuals) + logger.warning("No stored races for %s", date) + return {"races_total": 0, "races_scored": 0} + + +def main() -> None: + logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(levelname)s %(message)s") + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Trifecta backtester") + ap.add_argument("--date", required=True, help="Race date YYYY-MM-DD") + ap.add_argument("--actuals", help="JSON file mapping 'track_slug:RACE' or 'track|RACE' -> '1,7,9'") + args = ap.parse_args() + bt = Backtester() + actuals = {} + if args.actuals: + raw = json.loads(Path(args.actuals).read_text()) + for k, v in raw.items(): + if ":" in k: + t, r = k.split(":", 1) + elif "|" in k: + t, r = k.split("|", 1) + else: + t, r = k, "1" + actuals[(t.strip().lower(), int(r))] = _parse_actual(v) + result = bt.evaluate_date(args.date, actuals) + print(json.dumps({k: v for k, v in result.items() if k != "records"}, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/trifecta_bro/jobs/daily_prediction.py b/trifecta_bro/jobs/daily_prediction.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e9c171e7c2ec26a2219f4eb10b984cc2203f592f --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/jobs/daily_prediction.py @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +"""Daily prediction job: orchestrates the full pipeline. + +Run: python -m trifecta_bro.jobs.daily_prediction [--date YYYY-MM-DD] +Defaults to tomorrow (next calendar day in Australia/Sydney). +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import logging +from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone +from pathlib import Path + +from ..config import settings +from ..api.formfav_client import FormFavClient, FormFavAuthError, FormFavNotFoundError +from ..api.validator import validate_meetings, validate_race_form +from ..data.normalizer import normalise_meeting, normalise_race +from ..data.storage import Storage +from ..model.analyse_race import analyse_race +from ..model.scoring import load_weights +from ..reporting.dashboard import write_outputs + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.job") + +AU_TZ = timezone(timedelta(hours=10)) # Australia/Sydney (non-DST baseline) + + +def tomorrow_australia(tz_offset_hours: int = 10) -> str: + """Next calendar day relative to the configured Australian timezone.""" + tz = timezone(timedelta(hours=tz_offset_hours)) + now = datetime.now(tz) + return (now + timedelta(days=1)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + + +def run(date: str | None = None, dry_run: bool = False) -> dict: + if date is None: + date = tomorrow_australia() + logger.info("Running analysis for %s", date) + retrieved_at = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat() + + if not settings.has_api_key: + raise FormFavAuthError( + "FORMFAV_API_KEY not set — cannot fetch live data. " + "Set it in the environment or .env. (Backtest/analysis of stored " + "data still works without it.)") + + client = FormFavClient() + storage = Storage() + weights = load_weights() + + meetings_payload = client.get_meetings(date) + issues = validate_meetings(meetings_payload) + for iss in issues: + logger.warning("meetings validation: %s", iss) + + meetings = [normalise_meeting(m) for m in meetings_payload + if m.get("country") == settings.country and not m.get("abandoned")] + + analyses = [] + for m in meetings: + for rn in m.races: + try: + form = client.get_race_form(date, m.slug, rn) + except FormFavNotFoundError: + logger.warning("race form not found: %s R%s", m.slug, rn) + continue + fiss = validate_race_form(form) + for iss in fiss: + logger.warning("race %s R%s validation: %s", m.slug, rn, iss) + if any(i.level == "error" for i in fiss): + continue + if form.get("abandoned"): + logger.info("race %s R%s abandoned — skipping", m.slug, rn) + continue + race = normalise_race(form) + storage.upsert_race(race) + analysis = analyse_race(race, weights=weights) + analysis["date"] = date + analyses.append(analysis) + if not dry_run and not analysis.get("skippable"): + storage.save_prediction({ + "date": date, "track": race.track, "track_slug": race.track_slug, + "race_number": race.race_number, + "model_version": settings.model_version, + "generated_at": retrieved_at, "top3": analysis.get("top3"), + "trifecta": analysis.get("trifecta"), + "alternatives": analysis.get("alternatives"), + "confidence": analysis["confidence"]["category"], + "confidence_score": analysis["confidence"]["score"], + "ranked_runners": [{"no": r["number"], "name": r["name"], + "score": r["score"]} for r in analysis["ranked"]], + "data_completeness": analysis.get("data_completeness"), + }) + + # reports + json_path, md_path = write_outputs(date, analyses, settings.model_version, retrieved_at) + storage.close() + logger.info("Wrote %s and %s", json_path, md_path) + return { + "date": date, "meetings": len(meetings), "races_analysed": len(analyses), + "json": str(json_path), "markdown": str(md_path), + } + + +def main() -> None: + logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, + format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(name)s: %(message)s") + ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Daily Australian gallops trifecta analysis") + ap.add_argument("--date", help="Override target date (YYYY-MM-DD). Default = tomorrow AEST.") + ap.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true", help="Analyse but do not persist predictions.") + args = ap.parse_args() + try: + result = run(date=args.date, dry_run=args.dry_run) + print("DONE:", result) + except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover + logger.error("Pipeline failed: %s", exc) + raise + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/analyse_race.py b/trifecta_bro/model/analyse_race.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..24bc75f827912d9595a1e46f4ce5463b2c08b705 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/analyse_race.py @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +"""Per-race analysis orchestrator. + +Combines feature engineering, scoring, pace, probability and confidence into a +single prediction record. Keeps all logic deterministic & explainable. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +import yaml + +from ..config import settings +from ..data.models import RaceModel +from .pace_analysis import classify_pace +from .scoring import load_weights, score_runner +from .distance_profiles import get_profile +from .probability import generate_trifecta, compute_confidence + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.analyse") + +EXPLANATION_TEMPLATES = { + "form": "recent form quality (score {v:.0f}/100)", + "class": "career win/place percentages", + "distance": "historical distance performance", + "track": "track-specific record", + "track_distance": "track + distance combo record", + "condition": "track-condition suitability", + "jockey": "form consistency (low variance = reliable)", + "fitness": "first-up / second-up strike rate", + "barrier": "barrier suitability for the expected pace", + "weight": "weight handling relative to the field", + "pace": "race-shape / speed-map adjustment", + "market": "market odds (SP) implied probability", +} + + +def _load_conf(path: Optional[Path] = None) -> dict: + p = Path(path or settings.weights_path) + if not p.exists(): + return {} + data = yaml.safe_load(p.read_text()) or {} + return data.get("confidence", {}), data.get("trifecta", {}) + + +def analyse_race(race: RaceModel, weights: Optional[dict] = None, + confidence_cfg: Optional[dict] = None, + trifecta_cfg: Optional[dict] = None) -> dict: + # Use distance-specific profile if no explicit weights provided + if weights is None: + weights = get_profile(race) + conf_cfg, tri_cfg = _load_conf() + confidence_cfg = confidence_cfg or conf_cfg + trifecta_cfg = trifecta_cfg or tri_cfg + + active = race.active_runners + if len(active) < 3: + return { + "track": race.track, "race_number": race.race_number, + "race_name": race.race_name, "skippable": True, + "reason": f"only {len(active)} active runners (need >=3)", + "confidence": {"category": "AVOID", "score": 0}, + } + + pace = classify_pace(race, active) + ranked = [] + for r in active: + sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights) + ranked.append({ + "number": r.number, "name": r.name, "score": sc["score"], + "sub_scores": sc["sub_scores"], "available": sc["available"], + "completeness": sc["completeness"], "jockey": r.jockey, + "trainer": r.trainer, "barrier": r.barrier, "weight": r.weight, + "form": r.form, + }) + ranked.sort(key=lambda x: x["score"], reverse=True) + + # win/place estimates (softmax) for the ranking table + from .probability import softmax_probabilities + probs = softmax_probabilities([r["score"] for r in ranked], temperature=12.0) + for r, p in zip(ranked, probs): + r["win_est"] = round(p, 4) + # place estimate: rough cumulative — top runner more likely to place + for i, r in enumerate(ranked): + r["place_est"] = round(min(1.0, sum(probs[:max(1, i + 3)])), 4) + + tri = generate_trifecta(ranked, trifecta_cfg) + race_completeness = sum(r["completeness"] for r in ranked) / len(ranked) + conf = compute_confidence(ranked, race_completeness, pace, confidence_cfg) + + # explanations for top 3 + explanations = [] + for r in ranked[:3]: + factors = sorted(r["sub_scores"].items(), key=lambda kv: kv[1], reverse=True) + top = [k for k, v in factors if v > 0][:3] + reasons = [EXPLANATION_TEMPLATES.get(k, k).format(v=r["sub_scores"][k]) for k in top] + explanations.append({ + "number": r["number"], "name": r["name"], "score": r["score"], + "reasons": reasons, + }) + + return { + "track": race.track, + "track_slug": race.track_slug, + "race_number": race.race_number, + "race_name": race.race_name, + "distance": race.distance, + "condition": race.condition, + "race_class": race.race_class, + "start_time": race.start_time, + "timezone": race.timezone, + "number_of_runners": race.number_of_runners, + "active_runners": len(active), + "pace": pace, + "ranked": ranked, + "top3": tri["top3"], + "trifecta": tri["primary"], + "alternatives": tri["alternatives"], + "primary_prob": tri.get("primary_prob"), + "runner_probs": tri.get("runner_probs"), + "confidence": conf, + "explanations": explanations, + "data_completeness": round(race_completeness, 3), + "skippable": conf["category"] == "AVOID", + } diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/distance_profiles.py b/trifecta_bro/model/distance_profiles.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a6f0a2eb475261cbc6669bd1ad457b6e037f260e --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/distance_profiles.py @@ -0,0 +1,107 @@ +"""Distance-specific weight profiles for Australian Gallops. + +Different factors matter at different distances: +- Sprint (1000-1200m): barrier, early speed, pace map, weight carrying +- Middle (1400-1600m): form consistency, distance aptitude, fitness +- Staying (1600m+): stamina, first-up strike, jockey/trainer, less barrier weight + +These profiles are designed to be tuned independently via backtesting. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +from typing import Optional +import yaml +from pathlib import Path + +from ..config import settings + + +# Distance thresholds (in metres) +DISTANCE_BINS = [ + (0, 1200, "sprint"), + (1200, 1601, "middle"), # 1200-1600 inclusive + (1601, 9999, "staying"), # 1601+ +] + +# Default weight profiles per distance class +# Each profile is a dict of component -> weight +DEFAULT_PROFILES = { + "sprint": { + "form": 0.15, + "class": 0.10, + "distance": 0.06, + "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, + "condition": 0.04, + "jockey": 0.05, + "fitness": 0.04, + "barrier": 0.12, # Barrier matters most in sprints + "weight": 0.08, + "pace": 0.10, # Pace map matters more in sprints + "market": 0.12, # SP odds (when available) + }, + "middle": { + "form": 0.16, + "class": 0.12, + "distance": 0.08, + "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, + "condition": 0.05, + "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.07, + "barrier": 0.08, + "weight": 0.07, + "pace": 0.06, + "market": 0.11, + }, + "staying": { + "form": 0.14, + "class": 0.14, + "distance": 0.10, # Distance aptitude key in staying races + "track": 0.06, + "track_distance": 0.08, + "condition": 0.06, + "jockey": 0.08, # Jockey matters more in staying + "fitness": 0.10, # Fitness/stamina critical + "barrier": 0.04, # Barrier matters less + "weight": 0.06, + "pace": 0.04, + "market": 0.10, + }, +} + + +def parse_distance(distance_str: str) -> int: + """Parse distance string like '1200m' or '2400m' to integer.""" + if not distance_str: + return 1200 # default + try: + return int(''.join(filter(str.isdigit, str(distance_str)))) + except: + return 1200 + + +def classify_distance(distance: str | int) -> str: + """Classify a distance into sprint, middle, or staying.""" + d = parse_distance(distance) if isinstance(distance, str) else distance + for lo, hi, label in DISTANCE_BINS: + if lo <= d < hi: + return label + return "middle" # default + + +def load_profiles(path: Optional[Path] = None) -> dict: + """Load distance-specific weight profiles from YAML.""" + p = Path(path or settings.project_root / "trifecta_bro" / "config" / "distance_profiles.yaml") + if not p.exists(): + return dict(DEFAULT_PROFILES) + data = yaml.safe_load(p.read_text()) or {} + return {**DEFAULT_PROFILES, **data} + + +def get_profile(race) -> dict: + """Get the appropriate weight profile for a race based on distance.""" + distance_str = getattr(race, 'distance', None) or "" + distance_class = classify_distance(distance_str) + profiles = load_profiles() + return profiles.get(distance_class, DEFAULT_PROFILES["middle"]) diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/feature_engine.py b/trifecta_bro/model/feature_engine.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7da2f6a372783bb2c3c5948598c5572752f06611 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/feature_engine.py @@ -0,0 +1,91 @@ +"""Feature engineering. + +Form-string parsing follows the FormFav convention: +- digits 1..9 are finishing positions (1st..9th) +- '0' means 10th or worse +- 'x' (or 'X') means a spell / no result (NOT a finishing position) +- '-' / '.' separators are ignored +Recent results weigh more than old ones. Quality improves/declines tracked via +slope of recent positions. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import math +import re +from typing import Optional + +# Map a finishing token to a numeric score (higher = better). x/spell = None. +_FINISH_SCORE = {1: 100, 2: 80, 3: 65, 4: 50, 5: 40, 6: 32, 7: 26, 8: 20, 9: 15, 0: 8} + + +def parse_form_positions(form: str) -> list[Optional[int]]: + """Return finishing positions oldest->newest; x/spell -> None.""" + if not form: + return [] + tokens = re.findall(r"[0-9xX]", form) + out: list[Optional[int]] = [] + for t in tokens: + if t in ("x", "X"): + out.append(None) # spell / no result + else: + out.append(int(t)) + return out + + +def form_quality_score(form: str, max_len: int = 12) -> tuple[float, dict]: + """Return (0..100 score, diagnostics). Recent results weighted exponentially.""" + positions = parse_form_positions(form) + # normalise to latest `max_len` + recent = positions[-max_len:] + if not recent: + return 0.0, {"reason": "no form data", "recent": []} + + # weight recency: newest gets highest weight + n = len(recent) + total_w = 0.0 + weighted = 0.0 + for i, pos in enumerate(recent): + w = 2 ** (i) # newest (last) has largest exponent + if pos is None: + # spell: mildly negative but not catastrophic; treat as 0-score + total_w += w + continue + total_w += w + weighted += _FINISH_SCORE.get(pos, 8) * w + base = (weighted / total_w) if total_w else 0.0 + + # consistency: fraction of recent runs that placed (1..3) — ignoring spells + placed = [p for p in recent if p is not None and p <= 3] + consistency = len(placed) / max(1, len([p for p in recent if p is not None])) + + # trend: compare mean of last 3 (non-spell) vs prior 3 (non-spell) + valid = [p for p in recent if p is not None] + trend = 0.0 + if len(valid) >= 4: + last3 = valid[-3:] + prev3 = valid[-6:-3] + if prev3: + m_last = sum(last3) / len(last3) + m_prev = sum(prev3) / len(prev3) + # lower position number = better; improvement => positive + trend = max(-1.0, min(1.0, (m_prev - m_last) / 3.0)) + + score = 0.75 * base + 20 * consistency + 15 * max(0.0, trend) + score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score)) + return round(score, 1), { + "recent": recent, + "consistency": round(consistency, 2), + "trend": round(trend, 2), + "base": round(base, 1), + } + + +def spell_count(form: str) -> int: + """Number of spell markers (x) — indicates layoffs.""" + return len(re.findall(r"[xX]", form or "")) + + +def is_fresh_after_spell(form: str) -> bool: + """True if the most recent result is a spell (just resumed).""" + positions = parse_form_positions(form) + return bool(positions) and positions[-1] is None diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/features.py b/trifecta_bro/model/features.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9ed30b2c27f45ccd5efaa88b746bec6bbbbd92d6 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/features.py @@ -0,0 +1,167 @@ +"""Comprehensive feature engineering from existing FormFav data.""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +from trifecta_bro.data.models import RunnerModel, RaceModel + + +def extract_features(runner: RunnerModel, race: RaceModel) -> dict: + """Extract all possible features from runner data for ML model.""" + features = {} + + # Basic features + features['number'] = runner.number + features['barrier'] = runner.barrier or 0 + features['weight'] = runner.weight or 57.0 + features['age'] = runner.age or 4 + + # Sex encoding + sex = (runner.sex or '').lower() + features['is_gelding'] = 1 if 'gelding' in sex else 0 + features['is_mare'] = 1 if 'mare' in sex else 0 + features['is_filly'] = 1 if 'filly' in sex else 0 + features['is_colt'] = 1 if 'colt' in sex else 0 + + # Career stats + overall = runner.stats.get('overall', {}) + features['career_starts'] = overall.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['career_wins'] = overall.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['career_places'] = overall.get('places', 0) or 0 + features['career_win_pct'] = overall.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + features['career_place_pct'] = overall.get('placePercent', 0) or 0 + + # Track stats + track = runner.stats.get('track', {}) + features['track_starts'] = track.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['track_wins'] = track.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['track_win_pct'] = track.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + features['track_place_pct'] = track.get('placePercent', 0) or 0 + + # Distance stats + distance = runner.stats.get('distance', {}) + features['distance_starts'] = distance.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['distance_wins'] = distance.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['distance_win_pct'] = distance.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + features['distance_place_pct'] = distance.get('placePercent', 0) or 0 + + # Track + Distance combo + track_dist = runner.stats.get('trackDistance', {}) + features['track_distance_starts'] = track_dist.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['track_distance_wins'] = track_dist.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['track_distance_win_pct'] = track_dist.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + features['track_distance_place_pct'] = track_dist.get('placePercent', 0) or 0 + + # Condition stats (match by race condition) + cond = (race.condition or '').lower() + cond_stats = runner.stats.get('conditions', {}) + cond_key = None + for key in cond_stats: + if cond and cond[:4] in key.lower(): + cond_key = key + break + if cond_key: + cs = cond_stats[cond_key] + features['cond_starts'] = cs.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['cond_wins'] = cs.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['cond_win_pct'] = cs.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + features['cond_place_pct'] = cs.get('placePercent', 0) or 0 + else: + features['cond_starts'] = 0 + features['cond_wins'] = 0 + features['cond_win_pct'] = 0 + features['cond_place_pct'] = 0 + + # First-up / Second-up stats + first_up = runner.stats.get('firstUp', {}) + second_up = runner.stats.get('secondUp', {}) + features['first_up_starts'] = first_up.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['first_up_wins'] = first_up.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['first_up_win_pct'] = first_up.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + features['second_up_starts'] = second_up.get('starts', 0) or 0 + features['second_up_wins'] = second_up.get('wins', 0) or 0 + features['second_up_win_pct'] = second_up.get('winPercent', 0) or 0 + + # Form analysis + form = runner.form or '' + features['form_length'] = len(form) + + # Recent form (last 5) + recent = form[-5:] if len(form) >= 5 else form + features['recent_wins'] = sum(1 for c in recent if c == '1') + features['recent_places'] = sum(1 for c in recent if c in ['1', '2', '3']) + features['recent_win_pct'] = features['recent_wins'] / len(recent) if recent else 0 + features['recent_place_pct'] = features['recent_places'] / len(recent) if recent else 0 + + # Very recent (last 3) + very_recent = form[-3:] if len(form) >= 3 else form + features['very_recent_wins'] = sum(1 for c in very_recent if c == '1') + features['very_recent_win_pct'] = features['very_recent_wins'] / len(very_recent) if very_recent else 0 + + # Last start result + features['last_start_pos'] = _parse_last_position(form[-1]) if form else 0 + + # Career prize money + prize = runner.career_prize_money + if prize: + try: + features['career_prize'] = float(str(prize).replace('$', '').replace(',', '')) + except: + features['career_prize'] = 0 + else: + features['career_prize'] = 0 + + # Prize money per start + features['prize_per_start'] = features['career_prize'] / features['career_starts'] if features['career_starts'] > 0 else 0 + + # Race features + features['num_runners'] = race.number_of_runners or 10 + + # Distance in metres + distance_str = race.distance or '1200m' + try: + features['distance_metres'] = int(''.join(filter(str.isdigit, str(distance_str)))) + except: + features['distance_metres'] = 1200 + + # Barrier advantage (relative to field) + features['barrier_central'] = abs(features['barrier'] - features['num_runners'] / 2) + + # Weight relative to field + features['weight_relative'] = features['weight'] - 57.0 # 57kg is average + + return features + + +def _parse_last_position(char: str) -> int: + """Parse a form character to a finishing position.""" + if char == '1': + return 1 + elif char == '2': + return 2 + elif char == '3': + return 3 + elif char == '4': + return 4 + elif char == '5': + return 5 + elif char == '6': + return 6 + elif char == '7': + return 7 + elif char == '8': + return 8 + elif char == '9': + return 9 + elif char == '0': + return 10 # spell + elif char in ['x', 'X']: + return 0 # spell + elif char in ['f', 'F']: + return 0 # fell + elif char in ['p', 'P']: + return 0 # pulled up + else: + return 0 diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/pace_analysis.py b/trifecta_bro/model/pace_analysis.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2cfa00bc55d053130b89afa97fc51a4227abfd95 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/pace_analysis.py @@ -0,0 +1,91 @@ +"""Pace / race-shape estimation. + +Where FormFav supplies a pace scenario we use it; otherwise we derive a proxy +from the field's historical speed profiles. The engine then classifies SLOW / +MODERATE / FAST / VERY FAST and tags each runner's likely role +(leader / on-speed / midfield / backmarker) using barrier + historical +front-running tendency when available. + +All adjustments are evidence-based and never universal rules. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +from typing import Optional + +from ..data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel + + +def classify_pace(race: RaceModel, runners: list[RunnerModel]) -> dict: + """Estimate race shape from available evidence. + + Uses: + - FormFav raceClass / distance as coarse tempo priors (short races + lower + classes tend to be faster) + - a derived 'speed_pressure' from how many runners have strong front-running + or high win% (proxy when no explicit pace field) + """ + n = len(runners) or 1 + pressure = 0.0 + leaders = [] + for r in runners: + wp = r.win_percent + # high win% + low barrier => more likely to press forward + barrier = r.barrier or 5 + fwd = max(0.0, (wp / 100.0) - 0.05) + (0.5 if barrier <= 3 else 0.0) + pressure += fwd + if fwd > 0.12: + leaders.append(r.number) + pressure_norm = pressure / n # ~0..0.5 + + if pressure_norm >= 0.30: + label = "VERY FAST" + elif pressure_norm >= 0.20: + label = "FAST" + elif pressure_norm >= 0.11: + label = "MODERATE" + else: + label = "SLOW" + + roles = {} + for r in runners: + barrier = r.barrier or 5 + wp = r.win_percent / 100.0 + if barrier <= 3 and wp >= 0.10: + roles[r.number] = "leader/on-speed" + elif barrier <= 6: + roles[r.number] = "midfield" + else: + roles[r.number] = "backmarker" + + return { + "label": label, + "pressure": round(pressure_norm, 3), + "likely_leaders": leaders, + "roles": roles, + } + + +def pace_adjustment(runner: RunnerModel, pace: dict) -> float: + """Return an additive 0..100 sub-score adjustment (can be negative). + + Logic: + - SLOW race: a confirmed leader/on-speed runner is advantaged (can control). + - FAST/VERY FAST: a leader is penalised (likely to fold); midfield/strong + finishers advantaged. + - Backmarkers get a small negative in SLOW (hard to make ground). + """ + role = pace["roles"].get(runner.number, "midfield") + label = pace["label"] + if label == "SLOW": + if role == "leader/on-speed": + return 6.0 + if role == "backmarker": + return -4.0 + return 1.0 + if label in ("FAST", "VERY FAST"): + if role == "leader/on-speed": + return -4.0 + if role == "backmarker": + return 3.0 + return 2.0 + return 0.0 diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/probability.py b/trifecta_bro/model/probability.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4ab12e07675ac3ea4c29f4e940bdb16b8a0b8deb --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/probability.py @@ -0,0 +1,118 @@ +"""Probability, trifecta generation, and confidence. + +Deterministic / statistical only — no LLM involvement. Probabilities are model +estimates (softmax over scores), explicitly NOT bookmaker odds, and are labelled +as such in all output. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import math +from collections import OrderedDict +from typing import Optional + + +def softmax_probabilities(scores: list[float], temperature: float = 1.0) -> list[float]: + if not scores: + return [] + mx = max(scores) + exps = [math.exp((s - mx) / temperature) for s in scores] + total = sum(exps) or 1.0 + return [e / total for e in exps] + + +def joint_prob(first: int, second: int, third: int, + runner_probs: dict[int, float], order: list[int]) -> float: + """Probability that `order` (a permutation of first/second/third) lands, + under a simple first-order model: P(1st) * P(2nd | not 1st) * P(3rd | not 1,2).""" + nums = [first, second, third] + perm = list(order) + p = 1.0 + excluded = set() + for pos, pick in enumerate(perm): + avail = [n for n in nums if n not in excluded] + # P(pick | available) proportional to its standalone prob among available + avail_p = {n: runner_probs.get(n, 0.0) for n in avail} + s = sum(avail_p.values()) or 1.0 + p *= avail_p.get(pick, 0.0) / s + excluded.add(pick) + return p + + +def generate_trifecta(ranked: list[dict], weights_cfg: dict) -> dict: + """ranked: list of {number, score, win_est, place_est} sorted desc by score. + Returns primary, top3, alternatives (savers), and probabilities.""" + if len(ranked) < 3: + return {"skippable": True, "reason": "fewer than 3 active runners"} + + # standalone per-runner win probabilities (softmax over scores) + nums = [r["number"] for r in ranked] + scores = [r["score"] for r in ranked] + probs = softmax_probabilities(scores, temperature=12.0) + runner_probs = {n: p for n, p in zip(nums, probs)} + + top3 = [ranked[0]["number"], ranked[1]["number"], ranked[2]["number"]] + primary = list(top3) + + # enumerate saver permutations of the top-K (K=4) and score them + k = min(4, len(ranked)) + pool = [r["number"] for r in ranked[:k]] + from itertools import permutations + candidates = [] + for order in permutations(pool): + if order == tuple(primary): + continue + pr = joint_prob(primary[0], primary[1], primary[2], runner_probs, order) + candidates.append((list(order), pr)) + candidates.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + primary_prob = joint_prob(primary[0], primary[1], primary[2], runner_probs, tuple(primary)) + max_ratio = weights_cfg.get("min_saver_prob_ratio", 0.18) + max_savers = weights_cfg.get("max_savers", 6) + savers = [c for c in candidates if c[1] >= primary_prob * max_ratio][:max_savers] + + return { + "primary": primary, + "top3": top3, + "alternatives": [c[0] for c in savers], + "primary_prob": round(primary_prob, 4), + "saver_probs": [round(c[1], 4) for c in savers], + "runner_probs": {str(k): round(v, 4) for k, v in runner_probs.items()}, + } + + +def compute_confidence(ranked: list[dict], race_completeness: float, + pace: dict, weights_cfg: dict) -> dict: + if len(ranked) < 3: + return {"category": "AVOID", "score": 0, + "reason": "Insufficient active runners for a trifecta."} + conf = weights_cfg + leader = ranked[0]["score"] + if leader < weights_cfg.get("min_leader_score_for_prediction", 30.0): + return {"category": "AVOID", "score": int(leader), + "reason": "Leader score below threshold — data too weak to predict."} + sep = ranked[0]["score"] - ranked[1]["score"] + # competitive runners within `competitive_band` of leader + band = conf.get("competitive_band", 8.0) + competitive = sum(1 for r in ranked if leader - r["score"] <= band) + + if (sep >= conf.get("high_separation", 18.0) + and race_completeness >= conf.get("high_min_completeness", 0.85) + and competitive <= conf.get("max_competitive_runners_for_high", 3)): + cat, score = "HIGH", min(100, 70 + int(sep) + int(race_completeness * 15)) + elif (sep >= conf.get("medium_separation", 9.0) + and race_completeness >= conf.get("medium_min_completeness", 0.6) + and competitive <= conf.get("max_competitive_runners_for_medium", 6)): + cat, score = "MEDIUM", min(75, 50 + int(sep) + int(race_completeness * 10)) + elif sep < 4.0 or race_completeness < 0.35: + cat, score = "AVOID", min(35, int(leader)) + else: + cat, score = "LOW", min(50, 30 + int(sep)) + score = max(0, min(100, score)) + return { + "category": cat, + "score": score, + "leader_score": round(leader, 1), + "separation": round(sep, 1), + "competitive_runners": competitive, + "data_completeness": round(race_completeness, 2), + "pace": pace.get("label"), + } diff --git a/trifecta_bro/model/scoring.py b/trifecta_bro/model/scoring.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..68a09f26bc4b5a805ab54101a7b3c05943be2384 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/model/scoring.py @@ -0,0 +1,242 @@ +"""Configurable runner scoring engine. + +Each component yields a 0..100 sub-score. The final score is a weighted blend +of the configured weights. When a component has insufficient data for a runner, +its weight is redistributed across the components that DO have data (so a +runner missing jockey/trainer stats isn't unfairly zeroed). This keeps the model +transparent and degrades gracefully on incomplete FormFav data. + +v2.0 changes: +- Distance-specific weight profiles (sprint/middle/staying) +- Market component placeholder (SP odds when available via Betfair API) +- track_distance component +- fitness component (replaces trainer proxy) +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import logging +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +import yaml + +from ..config import settings +from ..data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel +from .feature_engine import form_quality_score +from .pace_analysis import classify_pace, pace_adjustment +from .distance_profiles import get_profile, parse_distance, classify_distance + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.scoring") + +# Base weights used as fallback +DEFAULT_WEIGHTS = { + "form": 0.18, + "class": 0.14, + "distance": 0.10, + "track": 0.10, + "track_distance": 0.10, + "condition": 0.05, + "jockey": 0.06, + "fitness": 0.08, + "barrier": 0.08, + "weight": 0.08, + "pace": 0.03, +} + + +def load_weights(path: Optional[Path] = None) -> dict: + p = Path(path or settings.weights_path) + if not p.exists(): + return dict(DEFAULT_WEIGHTS) + data = yaml.safe_load(p.read_text()) or {} + w = data.get("weights", {}) + merged = {**DEFAULT_WEIGHTS, **{k: float(v) for k, v in w.items()}} + return merged + + +def _safe_ratio(places: float, starts: float, cap: float, weight: float) -> float: + if not starts: + return 0.0 + return min((places / starts) * 100 * (weight / cap), cap) + + +def _form_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + score, _ = form_quality_score(r.form) + return score + + +def _class_component(r: RunnerModel, race: RaceModel) -> float: + wp = r.win_percent + pp = r.place_percent + return min(100.0, wp * 1.5 + pp * 0.5) + + +def _distance_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + d = r.stats.get("distance", {}) + return _safe_ratio(d.get("places", 0), d.get("starts", 0), 100.0, 100.0) + + +def _track_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + t = r.stats.get("track", {}) + return _safe_ratio(t.get("places", 0), t.get("starts", 0), 100.0, 100.0) + + +def _track_distance_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + """Use FormFav trackDistance stats — the most specific signal.""" + td = r.stats.get("trackDistance", {}) + if not td or not td.get("starts"): + return 0.0 + return _safe_ratio(td.get("places", 0), td.get("starts", 0), 100.0, 100.0) + + +def _condition_component(r: RunnerModel, race: RaceModel) -> float: + cond = (race.condition or "").lower() + cond_stats = r.stats.get("conditions", {}) + if not cond_stats: + return 0.0 + best = 0.0 + for key, data in cond_stats.items(): + if cond and cond[:4] in key.lower(): + best = max(best, _safe_ratio(data.get("places", 0), data.get("starts", 0), 100.0, 100.0)) + if best == 0.0: + vals = [_safe_ratio(v.get("places", 0), v.get("starts", 0), 100.0, 100.0) for v in cond_stats.values()] + best = sum(vals) / len(vals) if vals else 0.0 + return best + + +def _jockey_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + # Form consistency (low variance = reliable) + if not r.form: + return 0.0 + positions = [] + for ch in r.form: + if ch.isdigit(): + val = int(ch) + if val <= 9: + positions.append(val) + if len(positions) < 2: + return 0.0 + mean = sum(positions) / len(positions) + variance = sum((p - mean) ** 2 for p in positions) / len(positions) + stddev = variance ** 0.5 + score = max(0.0, 100 - stddev * 30) + return score + + +def _fitness_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + """Combines first-up and second-up strike rates as fitness proxy.""" + first_up = r.stats.get("firstUp", {}) + second_up = r.stats.get("secondUp", {}) + + fu_starts = first_up.get("starts", 0) or 0 + fu_wins = first_up.get("wins", 0) or 0 + su_starts = second_up.get("starts", 0) or 0 + su_wins = second_up.get("wins", 0) or 0 + + total_starts = fu_starts + su_starts + if total_starts == 0: + return 0.0 + + fu_rate = (fu_wins / fu_starts) if fu_starts > 0 else 0 + su_rate = (su_wins / su_starts) if su_starts > 0 else 0 + + if fu_starts > 0 and su_starts > 0: + score = (fu_rate * 0.6 + su_rate * 0.4) * 100 + elif fu_starts > 0: + score = fu_rate * 100 + else: + score = su_rate * 100 + + return min(100.0, score) + + +def _barrier_component(r: RunnerModel, race: RaceModel, pace: dict) -> float: + barrier = r.barrier + if barrier is None: + return 0.0 + + n = max(race.number_of_runners, 8) + distance = race.distance or "" + + dist_num = 1200 + try: + dist_num = int(''.join(filter(str.isdigit, distance))) if distance else 1200 + except: + pass + + # Distance-aware barrier logic + if dist_num <= 1200: + spread = abs(barrier - (n / 2.0 + 0.5)) + base = max(0.0, 100.0 - spread * 12.0) + elif dist_num <= 1600: + spread = abs(barrier - (n / 2.0 + 0.5)) + base = max(0.0, 100.0 - spread * 8.0) + else: + spread = abs(barrier - (n / 2.0 + 0.5)) + base = max(0.0, 100.0 - spread * 5.0) + + role = pace["roles"].get(r.number, "midfield") + if pace["label"] == "SLOW": + base += (5 - barrier) * 1.2 if barrier <= 5 else 0.0 + elif pace["label"] in ("VERY FAST", "FAST"): + base += (barrier - 5) * 0.8 if barrier > 5 else 0.0 + + return max(0.0, min(100.0, base)) + + +def _weight_component(r: RunnerModel, race: RaceModel) -> float: + if r.weight is None: + return 0.0 + w = r.weight + score = 40 + (w - 52) * 4.0 + return max(0.0, min(100.0, score)) + + +def _market_component(r: RunnerModel) -> float: + """Market component — placeholder for SP odds. + + Returns 0 until Betfair API key is configured. + When available, this will fetch SP odds and convert to implied probability. + """ + return 0.0 + + +def score_runner(r: RunnerModel, race: RaceModel, pace: dict, weights: dict | None = None) -> dict: + """Score a runner using distance-specific weights if no weights provided.""" + if weights is None: + weights = get_profile(race) + + comp = { + "form": _form_component(r), + "class": _class_component(r, race), + "distance": _distance_component(r), + "track": _track_component(r), + "track_distance": _track_distance_component(r), + "condition": _condition_component(r, race), + "jockey": _jockey_component(r), + "fitness": _fitness_component(r), + "barrier": _barrier_component(r, race, pace), + "weight": _weight_component(r, race), + "pace": 50.0 + pace_adjustment(r, pace), + "market": _market_component(r), + } + + available = {} + total_w = 0.0 + for k, w in weights.items(): + if comp[k] > 0 or k in ("form", "pace"): + available[k] = w + total_w += w + + if total_w == 0: + return {"sub_scores": comp, "score": 0.0, "available": {}, "completeness": r.data_completeness} + + norm = {k: w / total_w for k, w in available.items()} + score = sum(comp[k] * norm[k] for k in norm) + + return { + "sub_scores": comp, + "score": round(score, 1), + "available": {k: round(v, 3) for k, v in norm.items()}, + "completeness": r.data_completeness, + } diff --git a/trifecta_bro/reporting/dashboard.py b/trifecta_bro/reporting/dashboard.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d16b6976532b64a77629ad2c5cc27e9f61e3110b --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/reporting/dashboard.py @@ -0,0 +1,141 @@ +"""Reporting: machine-readable JSON + human-readable Markdown dashboard.""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +from ..config import settings + +DISCLAIMER = ( + "Predictions are statistical estimates based on available information. " + "They are NOT guarantees of any racing outcome or betting success." +) + + +def to_json_payload(date: str, analyses: list[dict], model_version: str, + retrieved_at: str) -> dict: + preds = [] + for a in analyses: + if a.get("skippable"): + preds.append({ + "track": a.get("track"), "race": a.get("race_number"), + "skipped": True, "reason": a.get("reason"), + }) + continue + preds.append({ + "track": a["track"], + "race": a["race_number"], + "race_name": a.get("race_name"), + "confidence": a["confidence"]["score"], + "confidence_category": a["confidence"]["category"], + "top3": a["top3"], + "trifecta": a["trifecta"], + "alternatives": a["alternatives"], + "primary_prob_est": a.get("primary_prob"), + "runner_probs_est": a.get("runner_probs"), + "pace": a.get("pace", {}).get("label"), + "data_completeness": a.get("data_completeness"), + "ranked": [ + {"no": r["number"], "name": r["name"], "score": r["score"], + "win_est": r.get("win_est"), "place_est": r.get("place_est")} + for r in a["ranked"][:6] + ], + }) + return { + "date": date, + "country": settings.country.upper(), + "race_type": settings.race_code, + "model_version": model_version, + "retrieved_at": retrieved_at, + "disclaimer": DISCLAIMER, + "predictions": preds, + } + + +def predictions_to_markdown(date: str, analyses: list[dict], model_version: str, + retrieved_at: str) -> str: + out = [] + out.append(f"# Australian Gallops Trifecta Predictions — {date}") + out.append("") + out.append(f"*Model version {model_version} | data retrieved {retrieved_at}*") + out.append("") + out.append(f"> {DISCLAIMER}") + out.append("") + + # Best trifecta opportunities + best = [a for a in analyses if not a.get("skippable") + and a["confidence"]["category"] in ("HIGH", "MEDIUM")] + best.sort(key=lambda a: a["confidence"]["score"], reverse=True) + out.append("## BEST TRIFECTA OPPORTUNITIES") + if best: + for i, a in enumerate(best[:8], 1): + tri = " → ".join(str(x) for x in a["trifecta"]) + out.append(f"{i}. {a['track']} R{a['race_number']} — " + f"{a['confidence']['category']} ({a['confidence']['score']}/100)") + out.append(f" {tri}") + else: + out.append("_No high/medium confidence races._") + out.append("") + + # Per-race cards + for a in analyses: + out.append("---") + out.append("") + hdr = f"### {a.get('track','?')} — Race {a.get('race_number','?')}" + if a.get("race_name"): + hdr += f" — {a['race_name']}" + out.append(hdr) + if a.get("skippable"): + out.append(f"**Skipped:** {a.get('reason')}") + out.append("") + continue + meta = [] + if a.get("distance"): meta.append(a["distance"]) + if a.get("condition"): meta.append(a["condition"]) + if a.get("race_class"): meta.append(a["race_class"]) + if a.get("start_time"): meta.append(f"Start {a['start_time']}") + meta.append(f"{a.get('active_runners')} runners") + out.append(" | ".join(meta)) + out.append("") + out.append("**Prediction**") + medals = ["🥇", "🥈", "🥉"] + for m, r in zip(medals, a["ranked"][:3]): + out.append(f"{m} #{r['number']} {r['name']} (score {r['score']})") + out.append("") + out.append(f"**Primary Trifecta:** {' → '.join(str(x) for x in a['trifecta'])}") + if a.get("alternatives"): + out.append(f"**Saver Trifectas:** " + + "; ".join(" → ".join(str(x) for x in c) for c in a["alternatives"])) + out.append(f"**Confidence:** {a['confidence']['category']} — " + f"{a['confidence']['score']}/100 " + f"(pace {a.get('pace',{}).get('label')}, " + f"completeness {a.get('data_completeness')})") + out.append("") + out.append("**Key Factors (top selections)**") + for e in a["explanations"][:3]: + out.append(f"- #{e['number']} {e['name']}: " + "; ".join(e["reasons"])) + out.append("") + # compact ranking table + out.append("| Rank | No. | Horse | Score | Win Est. | Place Est. | Key Factors |") + out.append("| ---- | --- | ----- | ----- | -------- | ---------- | ----------- |") + for i, r in enumerate(a["ranked"][:6], 1): + top_factors = sorted(r["sub_scores"].items(), key=lambda kv: kv[1], reverse=True) + kf = ", ".join(k for k, v in top_factors if v > 0)[:40] + out.append(f"| {i} | {r['number']} | {r['name']} | {r['score']} | " + f"{r.get('win_est')} | {r.get('place_est')} | {kf} |") + out.append("") + return "\n".join(out) + + +def write_outputs(date: str, analyses: list[dict], model_version: str, + retrieved_at: str, out_dir: Optional[Path] = None) -> tuple[Path, Path]: + out_dir = Path(out_dir or settings.reports_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + payload = to_json_payload(date, analyses, model_version, retrieved_at) + md = predictions_to_markdown(date, analyses, model_version, retrieved_at) + json_path = out_dir / f"predictions-{date}.json" + md_path = out_dir / f"report-{date}.md" + json_path.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2)) + md_path.write_text(md) + return json_path, md_path diff --git a/trifecta_bro/tools.py b/trifecta_bro/tools.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ff60623435b8152a56670864fdedb84dd163a176 --- /dev/null +++ b/trifecta_bro/tools.py @@ -0,0 +1,102 @@ +"""Hermes/Agent reusable tools. + +These wrap the deterministic pipeline so an agent can execute natural-language +commands like "Run tomorrow's Australian gallops analysis" or +"Analyse Randwick Race 7" without re-implementing logic. + +Each function is a thin, well-documented wrapper returning plain data. Prediction +math stays deterministic (see model/); the agent adds orchestration + explanation. +""" +from __future__ import annotations + +import logging +from datetime import datetime, timezone +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Optional + +from .config import settings +from .api.formfav_client import FormFavClient +from .api.validator import validate_race_form +from .data.normalizer import normalise_race +from .data.storage import Storage +from .model.analyse_race import analyse_race +from .model.scoring import load_weights +from .jobs.daily_prediction import tomorrow_australia +from .reporting.dashboard import write_outputs + +logger = logging.getLogger("trifecta_bro.tools") + + +def get_tomorrow_meetings(date: str | None = None) -> list[dict]: + """Discover tomorrow's AU gallops meetings via FormFav.""" + date = date or tomorrow_australia() + client = FormFavClient() + raw = client.get_meetings(date) + meetings = [m for m in raw if m.get("country") == settings.country and not m.get("abandoned")] + return [{"track": m.get("track"), "slug": m.get("slug"), "races": m.get("races", [])} + for m in meetings] + + +def get_race_form(date: str, track_slug: str, race: int) -> dict: + """Fetch normalised race form for one race.""" + client = FormFavClient() + raw = client.get_race_form(date, track_slug, race) + validate_race_form(raw) + return normalise_race(raw).model_dump() + + +def analyse_race_tool(date: str, track_slug: str, race: int) -> dict: + """Full analysis for a single race (deterministic).""" + client = FormFavClient() + raw = client.get_race_form(date, track_slug, race) + validate_race_form(raw) + race_model = normalise_race(raw) + return analyse_race(race_model, weights=load_weights()) + + +def rank_runners(date: str, track_slug: str, race: int) -> list[dict]: + a = analyse_race_tool(date, track_slug, race) + return a.get("ranked", []) + + +def generate_trifecta(date: str, track_slug: str, race: int) -> dict: + a = analyse_race_tool(date, track_slug, race) + return {"trifecta": a.get("trifecta"), "alternatives": a.get("alternatives"), + "confidence": a.get("confidence")} + + +def save_prediction(date: str, track_slug: str, race: int) -> dict: + a = analyse_race_tool(date, track_slug, race) + with Storage() as s: + s.save_prediction({ + "date": date, "track": a["track"], "track_slug": a["track_slug"], + "race_number": a["race_number"], "model_version": settings.model_version, + "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), + "top3": a.get("top3"), "trifecta": a.get("trifecta"), + "alternatives": a.get("alternatives"), + "confidence": a["confidence"]["category"], + "confidence_score": a["confidence"]["score"], + "ranked_runners": [{"no": r["number"], "name": r["name"], "score": r["score"]} + for r in a["ranked"]], + "data_completeness": a.get("data_completeness"), + }) + return {"saved": True, "track": a["track"], "race": a["race_number"]} + + +def run_daily_analysis(date: str | None = None, publish: bool = False) -> dict: + """Run the complete pipeline for a date and return report paths.""" + from ..jobs.daily_prediction import run as _run + return _run(date=date) + + +def why_ranked_first(date: str, track_slug: str, race: int) -> str: + """Explain in plain language why the top runner ranked first.""" + a = analyse_race_tool(date, track_slug, race) + if a.get("skippable"): + return f"Race skipped: {a.get('reason')}" + top = a["ranked"][0] + subs = top["sub_scores"] + factors = sorted(((k, v) for k, v in subs.items() if v > 0), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True) + parts = [f"Runner #{top['number']} {top['name']} ranks first (score {top['score']}) because:" + f" strong {', '.join(k for k, _ in factors[:3])}."] + return " ".join(parts)