{
 "source": "ESA Kelvins Collision Avoidance Challenge (Zenodo 4463683, CC BY 4.0)",
 "cdms": 162634,
 "events": 13154,
 "decision_horizon_days": 2.0,
 "threshold_log10_pc": -6.0,
 "coverage_target": 0.9,
 "empirical_coverage": 0.9075,
 "interval_half_width_log10_median": 14.0033,
 "conformal_bins": [
  {
   "lo": -31,
   "hi": -12,
   "n": 2195,
   "half_width": 14.003,
   "calibrated": true
  },
  {
   "lo": -12,
   "hi": -9,
   "n": 97,
   "half_width": 11.748,
   "calibrated": true
  },
  {
   "lo": -9,
   "hi": -7.5,
   "n": 32,
   "half_width": 20.079,
   "calibrated": true
  },
  {
   "lo": -7.5,
   "hi": -6.5,
   "n": 15,
   "half_width": 13.89,
   "calibrated": false
  },
  {
   "lo": -6.5,
   "hi": -5.5,
   "n": 8,
   "half_width": 13.89,
   "calibrated": false
  },
  {
   "lo": -5.5,
   "hi": 0,
   "n": 1,
   "half_width": 13.89,
   "calibrated": false
  }
 ],
 "mae_model": 5.8311,
 "mae_persistence_baseline": 12.0247,
 "resolvable_will_cross": 0.0,
 "resolvable_will_not_cross": 0.718292172457095,
 "unresolved_fraction": 0.28170782754290496,
 "accuracy_when_committing": 0.9808,
 "accuracy_persistence": 0.8954,
 "honesty_note": "In the original competition the naive persistence baseline scored 0.694 and only 12 of 96 teams beat it; the winner used threshold heuristics, not machine learning. We do not claim to beat the field. We use the data to decide whether the action threshold is RESOLVABLE at decision time, and report the persistence baseline beside every number."
}