diff --git a/results/aggregates/live_metadata.json b/results/aggregates/live_metadata.json index f686f89523a7c7b40a721983cf2d2610f5601673..d194b33c75e5e7abc7a417f3479a482eaf2dfd0c 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/live_metadata.json +++ b/results/aggregates/live_metadata.json @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ { - "generated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:15.998967+00:00", + "generated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:19.140028+00:00", "scope": "All deduplicated future releases saved up to generation time", "release_deduplication": "One row per model and content fingerprint of the target window plus recent context", "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets", @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ "ranking": "Dataset-balanced mean MSE/CRPS release rank; dataset-balanced pairwise shared-release wins; Elo over dataset-level matches (K=32)", "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets", "num_models": 11, - "num_datasets": 13, - "num_model_releases": 11914, - "num_unique_releases": 1360 + "num_datasets": 14, + "num_model_releases": 11947, + "num_unique_releases": 1363 } diff --git a/results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv b/results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv index 3a822254e87914ba795b80a4b54b876775ad0b94..e5f4e00dfdee67092370f56dcf1ab9a895a808fc 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ Rank,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,AverageRank,WinRate,Elo,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release -1,TiRex,4.4677262705919025,1.0607797359041526,0.22141471617476724,0.5552267101446449,33.28117368876106,3.9996739901598426,0.6606835518263272,1190.6010747707326,9.378047230532246,-0.018775461567072715,0.23076923076923078,13,1310,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-16T12:07:33.925127+00:00,2026-06-25T11:14:16.280156+00:00 -2,Chronos-2,4.6722361299401305,1.11866351056686,0.21593520143513711,0.5928856780170187,29.705266013546513,4.104872191741911,0.6209602591182647,1142.0157110309697,9.918733631339947,0.02225391704613491,0.23076923076923078,13,1336,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-16T12:06:40.343188+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:53.651435+00:00 -3,Toto-2.0-1B,4.468046063442353,1.0646631899971248,0.20339163387129203,0.5471798170136934,31.433912110374823,3.746354070303933,0.6840865086409298,1106.2803229701024,9.29880818819727,-0.01677846915608198,0.23076923076923078,13,1321,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-16T12:07:16.543073+00:00,2026-06-25T11:12:39.752566+00:00 -4,Moirai-1.1-Large,15461.194993331323,6.4758286274040096,0.2845404588092332,0.6026863263784479,12.870938708945316,4.687224758019567,0.5635423931563207,1100.7953141636167,136776.16840672612,-0.04836067858654888,0.23076923076923078,13,1286,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-16T12:07:48.486125+00:00,2026-06-25T11:15:38.247876+00:00 -5,Timer-S1,4.579535137602242,1.05718832237543,0.24109375538257252,0.5594697137147618,33.75919054397307,3.9549130270064246,0.6647105478458726,1075.321320498226,9.595251788533636,-0.03577663668614144,0.15384615384615385,13,1254,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-16T12:08:03.698792+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:04.559470+00:00 -6,TimesFM-2.5,4.396819602235308,1.0378200437223937,0.19169795229833897,0.67214584182637,34.16939226999613,4.581799435110068,0.5649554684221331,1048.3740473028836,9.174121657426433,-0.050901175233006975,0.23076923076923078,13,1343,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-16T12:06:55.147862+00:00,2026-06-25T11:11:17.961901+00:00 -7,Chronos-Bolt,1.8060744873637011,0.8382463929984962,0.23715245310819016,0.5422520857549856,11.267505895630501,6.381818181818182,0.4560606060606061,1006.5625213197147,0.563285234984474,0.5227272727272727,0.09090909090909091,11,37,0.8181818181818182,2026-06-25T06:37:03.120200+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:54.786649+00:00 -8,ETS,16.769179124671396,1.867961347998541,0.4227882937198222,1.2880405270222717,-2.078376442862367,7.127905044843928,0.31383302301327415,876.6706622351305,46.50287080617369,-0.06780425770272756,0.23076923076923078,13,1008,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-17T12:10:12.660440+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.124407+00:00 -9,ARIMA,5.504187270311162,1.3825401431639839,0.3058783468275706,0.8762051574374513,3.0979253687254302,6.851156572015786,0.32675085500054607,872.6459490980667,9.673120794754439,-0.04357063122645257,0.15384615384615385,13,1008,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-17T12:10:12.135642+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.949475+00:00 -10,Moving-Average,5.203480374175063,1.3583603749756838,0.34082523511243357,0.868931590123218,7.825416938068572,6.887930561664685,0.3287403750668965,839.8156940476764,9.670348471076545,-0.11800614031254016,0.3076923076923077,13,1008,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-17T12:10:12.847893+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.262863+00:00 -11,Seasonal-Naive,5.697803038538472,1.5130595001055538,0.35648287546960034,0.9968667884933199,9.624552509431587e-16,7.113704703331596,0.3094974345761016,740.9173825628808,9.49592199157632,-5.647370197782905e-05,0.3076923076923077,13,1003,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-17T12:10:12.963911+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.373670+00:00 +1,TiRex,4.505592518488873,1.1448072511437484,0.205170334986899,0.6219172228298578,30.8094010305013,4.140054938027099,0.6540807557584483,1184.9249948225756,9.37809640015936,-0.01860408385864587,0.21428571428571427,14,1313,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-16T12:07:33.925127+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:45.662246+00:00 +2,Chronos-2,4.8123927162152,1.222723058953089,0.20052677718173328,0.6872217955467458,26.524279705606173,4.411992308953519,0.5966955085633825,1146.0884263950738,9.91571213284043,0.02171202206635352,0.21428571428571427,14,1339,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-16T12:06:40.343188+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:16.544349+00:00 +3,Toto-2.0-1B,4.469144179082233,1.139962026075297,0.18852143144380754,0.6055558651079778,29.48335344996818,3.6505144476317946,0.6966834082100023,1108.2868280722669,9.298901224920128,-0.016681428569025224,0.21428571428571427,14,1324,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-16T12:07:16.543073+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:17.115503+00:00 +4,Moirai-1.1-Large,14357.196699395698,6.1763558502357885,0.26303793250864854,0.6738771235368689,11.68492409742711,4.859187995458764,0.5465267327330547,1097.2303225700307,136776.1671030466,-0.05051536505615653,0.21428571428571427,14,1289,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-16T12:07:48.486125+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:34.321885+00:00 +5,Timer-S1,5.17867189938176,1.2389518851465962,0.22470900123951876,0.725675619644199,28.1035902272503,4.456556887973467,0.61861062170562,1077.7750662376668,9.59756134998412,-0.035729471746604985,0.14285714285714285,14,1257,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-16T12:08:03.698792+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:08.480462+00:00 +6,TimesFM-2.5,4.435465852114613,1.1225041134816567,0.1777791513976269,0.7704978738226684,31.682184986197406,4.750311372653714,0.5546909372065687,1050.0937311131715,9.173899561463978,-0.05074825515940171,0.21428571428571427,14,1346,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-16T12:06:55.147862+00:00,2026-06-25T11:25:36.545893+00:00 +7,Chronos-Bolt,2.730455674330378,1.0721120078856423,0.21795010502945172,0.7386320045443765,5.412038028997499,6.716185897435897,0.4272702991452991,994.3659799560281,0.5612066787488146,0.6314102564102565,0.0,12,40,0.8333333333333334,2026-06-25T06:37:03.120200+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:42.764499+00:00 +8,ETS,15.830704565713244,1.8704131931889454,0.3893351561597574,1.2993204096261315,-0.8264744436513369,6.811139543165399,0.34464122610151043,881.5287490478415,46.50237229324645,-0.06917793326522882,0.21428571428571427,14,1011,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-17T12:10:12.660440+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.352009+00:00 +9,ARIMA,5.46176543907982,1.4419717174417788,0.2816388661814527,0.8842918701956206,2.8591369710266816,6.50405827838408,0.37500557512987537,871.8659689282069,9.672990470180526,-0.04382039019140191,0.14285714285714285,14,1011,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-17T12:10:12.135642+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.226247+00:00 +10,Moving-Average,5.187158611354763,1.4206402579088266,0.3145988053119044,0.9364306778080048,7.198707855201097,6.872927660760444,0.3362247038257996,839.8378417697721,9.668823424392727,-0.11846874528919997,0.2857142857142857,14,1011,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-17T12:10:12.847893+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.388272+00:00 +11,Seasonal-Naive,5.640627144082038,1.5629721372406906,0.3289917540838708,1.0184173690643266,2.5201409677343113e-16,6.815264774074426,0.3400837489002607,748.0020910873662,9.494280679227609,-0.00102598933362875,0.2857142857142857,14,1006,0.8571428571428571,2026-06-17T12:10:12.963911+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.417105+00:00 diff --git a/results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv b/results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv index 6761b9346777d338cbf010c1c7a09a21e9a4465a..5058226d0efa91bbf5ced1256f2db1e7bb2a2573 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ Rank,model,AverageRank,WinRate,Elo,dataset_pair_matches,shared_releases,pairwise_matches -1,TiRex,3.9996739901598426,0.6606835518263272,1190.6010747707326,128,1310,10454 -2,Chronos-2,4.104872191741911,0.6209602591182647,1142.0157110309697,128,1332,10466 -3,Toto-2.0-1B,3.746354070303933,0.6840865086409298,1106.2803229701024,128,1321,10493 -4,Moirai-1.1-Large,4.687224758019567,0.5635423931563207,1100.7953141636167,128,1286,10358 -5,Timer-S1,3.9549130270064246,0.6647105478458726,1075.321320498226,128,1254,10236 -6,TimesFM-2.5,4.581799435110068,0.5649554684221331,1048.3740473028836,128,1339,10511 -7,Chronos-Bolt,6.381818181818182,0.4560606060606061,1006.5625213197147,110,37,370 -8,ETS,7.127905044843928,0.31383302301327415,876.6706622351305,128,1008,9015 -9,ARIMA,6.851156572015786,0.32675085500054607,872.6459490980667,128,1008,9015 -10,Moving-Average,6.887930561664685,0.3287403750668965,839.8156940476764,128,1008,9015 -11,Seasonal-Naive,7.113704703331596,0.3094974345761016,740.9173825628808,128,1003,8975 +1,TiRex,4.140054938027099,0.6540807557584483,1184.9249948225756,138,1313,10484 +2,Chronos-2,4.411992308953519,0.5966955085633825,1146.0884263950738,138,1335,10496 +3,Toto-2.0-1B,3.6505144476317946,0.6966834082100023,1108.2868280722669,138,1324,10523 +4,Moirai-1.1-Large,4.859187995458764,0.5465267327330547,1097.2303225700307,138,1289,10388 +5,Timer-S1,4.456556887973467,0.61861062170562,1077.7750662376668,138,1257,10266 +6,TimesFM-2.5,4.750311372653714,0.5546909372065687,1050.0937311131715,138,1342,10541 +7,Chronos-Bolt,6.716185897435897,0.4272702991452991,994.3659799560281,120,40,400 +8,ETS,6.811139543165399,0.34464122610151043,881.5287490478415,138,1011,9045 +9,ARIMA,6.50405827838408,0.37500557512987537,871.8659689282069,138,1011,9045 +10,Moving-Average,6.872927660760444,0.3362247038257996,839.8378417697721,138,1011,9045 +11,Seasonal-Naive,6.815264774074426,0.3400837489002607,748.0020910873662,138,1006,9005 diff --git a/results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv b/results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv index 7efeac98150df58ac92dcdc0c5b5d7ac8dae17f3..ca2480d47fcb709eb8caea085ec28b87933132f6 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv @@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:01a603f450d9a928a10c,2026-06-24T15:54:4 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:01c8845856a5369f54d0,2026-06-25T05:31:46.116423+00:00,2026-06-25T05:31:46.116423+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,5.927669531148423,2.4346805809281067,0.020036384782623182,1.4218689400389237,-10.046634332332179,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:022123e150b5cf446cd8,2026-06-23T08:28:08.718420+00:00,2026-06-23T08:28:08.718420+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,1.764524659810731,1.3283541168719775,0.013880039445363838,1.3108312535605469,-5.9139988790976945,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:03c799d1e84862203538,2026-06-22T01:22:02.369176+00:00,2026-06-22T01:22:02.369176+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,0.31690745339673393,0.5629453378408369,0.008535202150028284,0.43561221031132086,2.482141670207979,True +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:042626ecc73f98355d42,2026-06-25T11:28:12.071420+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.071420+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,6.694639512121719,2.5874001453431434,0.020829836946752157,1.4087384858462648,-15.819779777673594,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:04d92c60ece42d8a5afb,2026-06-22T07:33:30.776110+00:00,2026-06-22T07:33:30.776110+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,0.3737040337380361,0.6113133678712057,0.012305158444961004,0.7985186914109059,-15.142472841866434,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:065cd2549ffa48700678,2026-06-23T06:05:00.709193+00:00,2026-06-23T06:05:00.709193+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,1.0982003374499878,1.0479505415094683,0.012078897702897587,1.0665006000935122,-12.10953670365076,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:06fa784ad53d98741a23,2026-06-22T09:37:07.501025+00:00,2026-06-22T09:37:07.501025+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,0.4308468487740905,0.6563892509586751,0.008711082199202408,0.5211789957399553,-26.515537293008382,True @@ -341,12 +342,13 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:fe96089368a36acd7db7,2026-06-17T13:32:1 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:feb1a375819809b3d351,2026-06-23T10:58:31.567510+00:00,2026-06-23T10:58:31.567510+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,2.466556959895294,1.5705276055820523,0.014948147137833226,1.404166760928944,-2.340761114020447,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:fef39afd416e41a4ed7f,2026-06-23T04:00:33.086720+00:00,2026-06-23T04:00:33.086720+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,1.0480417777576292,1.0237391160630862,0.016979051225993635,1.5814909518526452,-15.711515398769695,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:ff129ce94aa1aa8a25b2,2026-06-23T05:12:57.924704+00:00,2026-06-23T05:12:57.924704+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,1.0745921533414173,1.0366253678843758,0.011988787622978657,1.063327063524653,-13.564305043766591,True +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short|window:f4b6fba232abdd8fad84,2026-06-25T11:28:12.129770+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.129770+00:00,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,4.911142213889696,2.2161097025846206,0.015030394115382132,0.9918339279581426,0.02814803643838014,True data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short|window:4035ea947222c8854452,2026-06-24T10:52:35.939325+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:35.939325+00:00,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,ARIMA,2.9664674922689853,1.7223436045891032,0.6111556523811462,1.0317116760827598,14.518148853886235,True data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:1c9411b6f3989dbbaaf2,2026-06-24T15:11:28.622096+00:00,2026-06-24T15:11:28.622096+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,0.07582794362903403,0.2753687411981143,,0.21042032186604387,98.50632918347952,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:1cef247379c74a482fa2,2026-06-24T11:56:58.172141+00:00,2026-06-24T11:56:58.172141+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,80.28001354364058,8.95991146963186,,3.5263639224149976,0.653123642955932,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:23de839ed2223a09fd28,2026-06-24T14:37:15.790104+00:00,2026-06-24T14:37:15.790104+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,0.1023750959465,0.31996108505019794,,0.24855493603790915,98.62049490637953,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:424afd5dbdf3fe6b8c02,2026-06-24T14:09:56.036959+00:00,2026-06-24T14:09:56.036959+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,0.20435891857652702,0.4520607465557334,,0.36782573559632437,95.85471949848137,False -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4b48f21a4b7a02bfbec1,2026-06-25T11:02:25.254198+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.254198+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,0.005051285684836964,0.07107239748901795,,0.030307287966020016,-99.99999999999999,False +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4b48f21a4b7a02bfbec1,2026-06-25T11:28:12.175397+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.175397+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,0.0035167472575065107,0.05930216907927155,,0.028956052592735423,-100.0,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4c0593431452aa39cea8,2026-06-24T10:52:36.014410+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:36.014410+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,80.4434405719042,8.969026734930843,,3.5171662599706237,-13.754103195807376,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:7145208ca19cfa6e9bff,2026-06-24T13:13:57.453097+00:00,2026-06-24T13:13:57.453097+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,73.7207776359925,8.586080458276204,,8.533770451704575,-81.64758314357725,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:ba1414aa2f3d9088daca,2026-06-24T15:37:24.986372+00:00,2026-06-24T15:37:24.986372+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,0.0695818316598202,0.26378368346017955,,0.16911630118137697,-48.76603900724881,False @@ -933,6 +935,7 @@ usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:08d7e21c12769d67bd8c,2026-06-24T12 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:147098a3cfbee90d34e8,2026-06-22T11:59:14.249333+00:00,2026-06-22T11:59:14.249333+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,0.18216851388769498,0.4268120357812031,0.009724778941511358,0.44283826405842036,-10.002514589328374,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:289e63605d2d8db9571c,2026-06-23T14:09:18.835391+00:00,2026-06-23T14:09:18.835391+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,0.9881124842309151,0.994038472208654,0.016682622493940272,1.128791635246526,7.261701746433816,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:2bca423593852d0caac5,2026-06-24T10:52:36.135328+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:36.135328+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,0.31385835267247975,0.5602306245400012,0.010562242210748458,0.6434849811148536,-100.0,True 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usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:31996fadd2676c8cc518,2026-06-22T02:04:31.374070+00:00,2026-06-22T02:04:31.374070+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,1.2344676778615638,1.1110660096778966,0.012549853006276554,0.7239550128355194,2.061346593205525,True @@ -1016,6 +1019,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:01a603f450d9a928a10c,2026-06-24T15:51:2 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:01c8845856a5369f54d0,2026-06-25T05:27:12.269125+00:00,2026-06-25T05:27:12.269125+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,11.847874232262564,3.4420741177758742,0.03704873758019725,2.3208035892417644,-41.94835175446083,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:022123e150b5cf446cd8,2026-06-23T08:25:08.840855+00:00,2026-06-23T08:25:08.840855+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,1.525936158223608,1.2352878847554556,0.008286881990530395,0.6138274174389585,1.3426732899929885,True 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data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:ba1414aa2f3d9088daca,2026-06-24T15:31:02.562866+00:00,2026-06-24T15:31:02.562866+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,0.007412309801340891,0.08609477220680063,,0.10730105976205657,52.75141438269497,False @@ -2252,6 +2257,7 @@ usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:22856fd7de8c0e439026,2026-06-17T06 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:242ba6f855476a2a8d83,2026-06-21T17:41:16.268633+00:00,2026-06-21T17:41:16.268633+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,0.5622175716608763,0.7498116908003477,0.002649788255830022,0.35642768068226194,60.01606864800047,True 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usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:2c23190383d140fce104,2026-06-22T06:40:54.580442+00:00,2026-06-22T06:40:54.580442+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,3.9941065199971195,1.998526086894319,0.014002821902011303,0.9813868627615006,20.070763464340764,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:302b861a9d18ece575c8,2026-06-17T16:13:16.742049+00:00,2026-06-17T16:13:16.742049+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,0.006705916683552063,0.08188966164023431,0.0007229432605561755,0.1723490470643362,98.35005213360209,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:3133e25b82a65bda877c,2026-06-25T10:56:47.867391+00:00,2026-06-25T10:56:47.867391+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,0.13728128904901574,0.3705148972025494,0.008289405376408376,0.16812069041065994,34.638449644032974,True @@ -2343,6 +2349,7 @@ wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short|window:39fc637545539b4add0a,2026 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short|window:52dd20ccbf69aac3ef3d,2026-06-22T23:32:18.736924+00:00,2026-06-22T23:32:18.736924+00:00,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,Chronos-2,0.15275508858603382,0.3908389547960052,0.08015353536795389,0.22690685138978373,92.17602740172904,True wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short|window:e3b940d4ebc6ad7dbd4f,2026-06-17T09:43:59.015450+00:00,2026-06-17T09:43:59.015450+00:00,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2,Chronos-2,0.011942143134219419,0.10928011316895411,0.029541268570876036,0.11167203471733016,98.9639570400825,True wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short|window:f0e38ea35b057af22cfb,2026-06-19T13:44:12.238767+00:00,2026-06-19T13:44:12.238767+00:00,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,Chronos-2,0.1976689424454374,0.4445997553366819,0.08979400097660017,0.24895679218366484,86.78717084000579,True +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:042626ecc73f98355d42,2026-06-25T11:24:26.106416+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:26.106416+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,14.398130477094497,3.794486852934728,0.04812404596471457,3.343036518538144,-49.48276806038448,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:301bcb06d27fc80bc8f3,2026-06-25T07:08:33.069602+00:00,2026-06-25T07:08:33.069602+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,13.202298993741627,3.633496799742863,0.041381582767915585,2.860113630961775,-46.443468373615325,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:309cb59d98090f52d8b8,2026-06-25T10:47:12.702140+00:00,2026-06-25T10:47:12.702140+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,12.259912114188301,3.501415729985273,0.043160487364765854,2.721518002127855,-44.404338202268896,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:39f1a5a6c97d9db9bf3f,2026-06-25T10:23:06.697506+00:00,2026-06-25T10:23:06.697506+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,7.5331109889451575,2.7446513419640675,0.023338643640781486,1.499192236441391,-25.34458224810092,True @@ -2355,7 +2362,8 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:95347fd80aa1d6a1ae9e,2026-06-25T06:37:0 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:d3466a07bec7e2f79a99,2026-06-25T07:37:11.845085+00:00,2026-06-25T07:37:11.845085+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,13.166158035588504,3.6285200889051867,0.04130391036698141,2.8541205849300506,-46.445933769014175,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:e08fa07051381464a43c,2026-06-25T06:59:29.110824+00:00,2026-06-25T06:59:29.110824+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,13.368032060020747,3.656231948334343,0.04055319466430409,2.8399517452364673,-46.69756632540125,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:ece666a5bb034049eb88,2026-06-25T07:27:27.078873+00:00,2026-06-25T07:27:27.078873+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,13.175910594785694,3.629863715731721,0.04132521133272895,2.85576626828399,-46.44614180331837,True -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4b48f21a4b7a02bfbec1,2026-06-25T10:57:16.510036+00:00,2026-06-25T10:57:16.510036+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,3.2198793338534015e-06,0.0017944022218703926,,0.003343225851971254,-100.0,False 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nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short|window:0aeafaee04318ff321b9,2026-06-25T11:09:23.654488+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:23.654488+00:00,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,0.22487951405866288,0.47421462868480013,0.04913755283421481,0.20995248607983505,-1.7255759933117165,True noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short|window:5072d4eec97bd93fcfec,2026-06-25T10:47:29.206216+00:00,2026-06-25T10:47:29.206216+00:00,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-Bolt,2.508375342888723,1.5837851315404887,1.5355406597396388,0.9270101071869261,44.13822591399157,True @@ -2377,6 +2385,7 @@ open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short|window:12f645bdb611ae1a83cc,2 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short|window:76e13b3d7283bf1b1469,2026-06-25T07:37:54.735529+00:00,2026-06-25T07:37:54.735529+00:00,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,0.022043811153671992,0.14847158365718335,0.011821521802800725,0.0984981340414337,54.67373800164968,True usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short|window:5c0b8ea6ffbf9d7f463d,2026-06-25T11:09:54.786649+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:54.786649+00:00,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,2.764275753054642,1.662611125024322,1.5494999669778906,0.9809783750065431,11.494502424214112,True usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short|window:d63cc318eba130ade07c,2026-06-25T07:38:01.826576+00:00,2026-06-25T07:38:01.826576+00:00,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,2.2737567781911054,1.507898132564367,0.8697657073821711,0.8560504622710821,8.409364045670133,True 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usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:d1753d1f85b71ae44f50,2026-06-25T07:38:10.419054+00:00,2026-06-25T07:38:10.419054+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,0.06697312444671452,0.25879166224342415,0.006802590683083129,0.15068585449914865,69.7284600891942,True @@ -2388,6 +2397,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:01a603f450d9a928a10c,2026-06-24T15:54:4 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:01c8845856a5369f54d0,2026-06-25T05:31:46.329928+00:00,2026-06-25T05:31:46.329928+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,5.6686419090745925,2.380890990590412,0.024651359722799016,1.7991865628862656,-7.8304999286711725,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:022123e150b5cf446cd8,2026-06-23T08:28:08.863086+00:00,2026-06-23T08:28:08.863086+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,1.4710498186245422,1.2128684259327316,0.00806228220916303,0.72399808148402,3.173277595018473,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:03c799d1e84862203538,2026-06-22T01:22:02.463619+00:00,2026-06-22T01:22:02.463619+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,0.040771786633757794,0.201920248201506,0.002200971689830584,0.09609550869084947,78.18593192323056,True +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:042626ecc73f98355d42,2026-06-25T11:28:12.291268+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.291268+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,6.1117486837506005,2.472195114417671,0.029899363758850172,2.0824545603208575,-11.349941707669494,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:04d92c60ece42d8a5afb,2026-06-22T07:33:31.014985+00:00,2026-06-22T07:33:31.014985+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,0.08644089613501679,0.2940083266423194,0.0025388064632111923,0.1380528538051167,52.2231627717264,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:065cd2549ffa48700678,2026-06-23T06:05:00.877374+00:00,2026-06-23T06:05:00.877374+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,0.6615361205913328,0.8133487078684842,0.005353183001605625,0.44296653685731074,13.098232329359545,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:06fa784ad53d98741a23,2026-06-22T09:37:07.597828+00:00,2026-06-22T09:37:07.597828+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,0.08766943863362177,0.29609025420236607,0.0024153764038763333,0.14148315846620674,48.112268889597736,True @@ -2722,12 +2732,13 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:fe96089368a36acd7db7,2026-06-17T13:32:1 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:feb1a375819809b3d351,2026-06-23T10:58:31.646194+00:00,2026-06-23T10:58:31.646194+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,2.2647982130265065,1.504924653604461,0.010580790686793901,0.9659104704470659,1.925451685724914,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:fef39afd416e41a4ed7f,2026-06-23T04:00:33.140461+00:00,2026-06-23T04:00:33.140461+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,0.8975844213664195,0.9474093209201709,0.006335073010724093,0.5313116354267295,-8.076537352324527,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:ff129ce94aa1aa8a25b2,2026-06-23T05:12:57.963492+00:00,2026-06-23T05:12:57.963492+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,0.6175642970071299,0.7858525924161158,0.005182072967339592,0.4250213057330307,13.955566544969203,True +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short|window:f4b6fba232abdd8fad84,2026-06-25T11:28:12.316922+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.316922+00:00,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,3.633208989430477,1.9060978436141407,0.021383719089588665,1.4461660222199584,14.983986047877945,True data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short|window:4035ea947222c8854452,2026-06-24T10:52:36.193145+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:36.193145+00:00,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,ETS,3.012456858668924,1.7356430677616075,0.618770085277974,1.0920825657778055,13.76432849378957,True data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:1c9411b6f3989dbbaaf2,2026-06-24T15:11:28.849230+00:00,2026-06-24T15:11:28.849230+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,0.008317693346394858,0.09120138894992147,,0.027710671693437067,99.83506005358902,False 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binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:05e6092443a634e5f448,2026-06-17T08:43:16.602245+00:00,2026-06-17T08:43:16.602245+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5068220607711865,0.7119143633690688,0.014679732323809919,0.3493061082455245,-22.096251949790936,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:062b6095e6b9623d56db,2026-06-17T04:17:17.128521+00:00,2026-06-17T04:17:17.128521+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0685091415975763,0.261742510107885,0.003965790866934866,0.18640120264577284,59.136308798598066,True @@ -11053,13 +11084,14 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:fe96089368a36acd7db7,2026-06-17T13:30:3 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:feb1a375819809b3d351,2026-06-23T10:57:05.025229+00:00,2026-06-23T10:57:05.025229+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-2.0-1B,2.116632652516739,1.4548651664387113,0.010404530124386508,0.7860026776744203,5.303668962199605,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:fef39afd416e41a4ed7f,2026-06-23T03:59:35.051640+00:00,2026-06-23T03:59:35.051640+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9229691648774507,0.9607128420487835,0.006394701744520796,0.5219989515651074,-9.460225773701955,True binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short|window:ff129ce94aa1aa8a25b2,2026-06-23T05:11:44.570328+00:00,2026-06-23T05:11:44.570328+00:00,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6500722970480141,0.8062706103089794,0.005234744422524054,0.4398800527925217,11.432022619791816,True +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short|window:f4b6fba232abdd8fad84,2026-06-25T11:26:06.887468+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:06.887468+00:00,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-2.0-1B,4.480152715360922,2.1166371241573088,0.024869888526069653,1.362383486984731,4.617333023751547,True data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short|window:4035ea947222c8854452,2026-06-24T10:49:11.363722+00:00,2026-06-24T10:49:11.363722+00:00,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,Toto-2.0-1B,2.59039916867846,1.6094717048393428,0.618111195369563,0.6558362744768197,21.07867615656856,True data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:1c9411b6f3989dbbaaf2,2026-06-24T15:04:33.028603+00:00,2026-06-24T15:04:33.028603+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,0.00505565307870755,0.07110311581574713,,0.18271318927041227,99.89971391067834,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:1cef247379c74a482fa2,2026-06-24T11:55:29.019010+00:00,2026-06-24T11:55:29.019010+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,81.43514425979792,9.024142300506897,,3.2325543250777335,-0.06117880552243262,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:23de839ed2223a09fd28,2026-06-24T14:33:26.924112+00:00,2026-06-24T14:33:26.924112+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,0.006852367357949774,0.0827790272831819,,0.2163370891985195,99.90706619688443,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:424afd5dbdf3fe6b8c02,2026-06-24T14:05:06.913098+00:00,2026-06-24T14:05:06.913098+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,0.011085183787792637,0.10528619941755252,,0.5461900825818254,99.77064888026817,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:48251ba9453af4e9aac3,2026-06-24T18:08:34.804036+00:00,2026-06-24T18:08:34.804036+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,0.003561623212862074,0.059679336565197125,,0.24714973051306957,49.93004048325557,False -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4b48f21a4b7a02bfbec1,2026-06-25T11:00:25.018137+00:00,2026-06-25T11:00:25.018137+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,4.688990563747063e-07,0.0006847620436142078,,0.0006414419419186329,-100.0,False +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4b48f21a4b7a02bfbec1,2026-06-25T11:26:11.871259+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:11.871259+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,1.029858248682926e-06,0.001014819318244842,,0.0007891398079187725,-100.0,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:4c0593431452aa39cea8,2026-06-24T10:49:15.506331+00:00,2026-06-24T10:49:15.506331+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,81.52764157460317,9.029265838073613,,3.38168842204848,-14.410215490109508,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:7145208ca19cfa6e9bff,2026-06-24T13:11:26.550438+00:00,2026-06-24T13:11:26.550438+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,10.140256178226563,3.184376890103708,,2.2653632348777695,-15.305563299147131,False data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short|window:ba1414aa2f3d9088daca,2026-06-24T15:34:04.670457+00:00,2026-06-24T15:34:04.670457+00:00,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0034653205947575783,0.05886697371835568,,0.07500242710559532,74.73225369743504,False @@ -11822,6 +11854,7 @@ usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:22856fd7de8c0e439026,2026-06-17T06 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:242ba6f855476a2a8d83,2026-06-21T18:41:14.564402+00:00,2026-06-21T18:41:14.564402+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5620714890405536,0.74971427159989,0.00261846004855462,0.3466860015291304,60.02438122707001,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:289e63605d2d8db9571c,2026-06-23T14:05:16.376517+00:00,2026-06-23T14:05:16.376517+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.14449407242366247,0.38012375935169124,0.0010341789480078588,0.17031013756111357,77.55172470285903,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:2bca423593852d0caac5,2026-06-24T10:49:24.083458+00:00,2026-06-24T10:49:24.083458+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6917415942971838,0.8317100422005158,0.008295903654180021,0.2818603190124501,-100.0,True +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:2bcbf8790e7c51af832b,2026-06-25T11:26:17.115503+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:17.115503+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4128228292359483,0.6425129019996005,0.011888977382945365,0.36754026955103014,0.33722624891952385,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:2c23190383d140fce104,2026-06-22T06:42:49.533756+00:00,2026-06-22T06:42:49.533756+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,1.266886795246601,1.1255606581817796,0.00470164301069732,0.6419284092407985,65.13261232924958,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:302b861a9d18ece575c8,2026-06-17T17:11:14.875770+00:00,2026-06-17T17:11:14.875770+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.03737842781595453,0.19333501445923998,0.0009819503057570684,0.1266882614480712,91.13768657203913,True usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short|window:3133e25b82a65bda877c,2026-06-25T11:00:29.704814+00:00,2026-06-25T11:00:29.704814+00:00,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.07030547450273672,0.2651517952093418,0.002584548887914541,0.097553958902666,60.17720417941198,True diff --git a/results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv b/results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv index 1a3df5fe45f7122796fce588f35f4c04b4c6b1f2..a4abe5e9405ba4aee02addaad315f2eae869acad 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ model,dataset,domain,frequency,prediction_lengths,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,Stability,Improvement,Improvement_pvalue,n_releases,MAPE_coverage,first_release,last_release -ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.004107644205407,1.2607309182963686,0.01219163347667591,0.9141794147388216,2.282470730615233,2.0256549429637003,0.48304779544168336,1.5194068606435343e-40,342,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.135642+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.612282+00:00 +ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.017782664228487,1.2645987586084586,0.012216817743352515,0.9156212779198928,2.229694490066286,2.0384855104781137,0.4857893031899477,4.2073615085419344e-41,343,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.135642+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.071420+00:00 +ARIMA,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,4.911142213889696,2.2161097025846206,0.015030394115382132,0.9918339279581426,0.02814803643838014,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:28:12.129770+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.129770+00:00 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,2.9664674922689853,1.7223436045891032,0.6111556523811462,1.0317116760827598,14.518148853886235,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:52:35.939325+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:35.939325+00:00 -ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,39.715505373677495,4.614445870670056,,2.312726842535589,11.900520428323068,41.387066339210705,-0.8484848484848484,1.6342325370103148e-05,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.014410+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.254198+00:00 +ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,39.71537749547522,4.613465018302578,,2.312614239587815,11.900520428323064,41.38720019349704,-0.8484848484848484,1.6342325370103148e-05,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.014410+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.175397+00:00 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,7;8;10;12,9.147324257830482e-15,9.539730222989587e-08,,1.9433238745617197e-07,0.0,1.2256526212270822e-15,0.0,1.0,13,0.0,2026-06-24T12:46:14.723189+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.652970+00:00 ARIMA,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.4483961829503094,1.0555070823176096,0.10386710803792586,0.8136162040088142,-56.43384803115729,1.5731515825090019,0.2857142857142857,0.39875992063492066,8,1.0,2026-06-18T05:03:29.867986+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.694394+00:00 ARIMA,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.8506843919172944,1.2424282983294008,1.035102729990436,0.9728449758041365,12.768646849358888,1.4497253881658365,-0.07424115845168476,0.12826061020846866,190,0.9736842105263158,2026-06-17T12:10:12.335728+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.782493+00:00 @@ -10,11 +11,12 @@ ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,13.41243805928154 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9254377622587621,0.8527971728882667,0.5432786897415767,0.6166593037429366,-16.109390641240033,1.2024121904122802,-0.16493506493506493,0.0726291876059254,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.456148+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.885854+00:00 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.0409882170019475,0.9030516746655497,0.10694783001923486,0.6749696657662165,-54.91567016018835,1.163993677755722,-0.4787878787878789,2.449356994347234e-07,55,1.0,2026-06-17T12:39:00.859383+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.920212+00:00 ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.106606515241294,1.0211972206573914,0.5766925271381336,0.5141484000677972,28.04512591741422,0.5406894408865507,0.06623376623376624,0.47097808036798516,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.513260+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.949475+00:00 -ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.4832811198690774,0.9725138157204648,0.0138767867580738,0.6602251158803507,16.13651294407637,2.5541382979323966,-0.020547945205479454,0.7970504876059664,73,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.165483+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.305413+00:00 +ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.4688733972309804,0.9680993082443432,0.013825787450171259,0.6564810637407343,15.916028949129887,2.5396099812446966,-0.026286560533135876,0.7403889895984056,74,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.165483+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.226247+00:00 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,1.0629522979989827,1.0167892222507973,0.20775797192515183,0.4980251443379422,51.59769477042867,0.32905477587192344,0.4285714285714286,0.2388888888888889,7,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.582752+00:00,2026-06-25T02:39:42.197586+00:00 -Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6650886587738531,0.9906104754873012,0.010113881039170903,0.5874773605193861,24.587773541226664,2.767038733112531,0.43015938035302,1.3330807417853647e-43,464,1.0,2026-06-16T12:06:40.343188+00:00,2026-06-25T11:07:52.667964+00:00 +Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6791223814275067,0.9946348660288192,0.010168797748972433,0.5909790191744498,24.480131348081485,2.7805722187158604,0.43223952539859095,4.240386999149287e-44,465,1.0,2026-06-16T12:06:40.343188+00:00,2026-06-25T11:23:44.774685+00:00 +Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,6.644289588454596,2.577651952544136,0.03102214331090807,1.914512463687852,-14.971035377490166,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:24:04.974301+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:04.974301+00:00 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,2.7341224511056046,1.6535182040442145,0.6608019070822674,0.8231222196231203,18.484576701267176,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:47:11.080330+00:00,2026-06-24T10:47:11.080330+00:00 -Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,31.886157504800813,3.900635137176946,,1.5722107717859777,18.92803560764648,40.816960814521266,-0.6923076923076922,0.0005287205721233499,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:47:15.684286+00:00,2026-06-25T10:56:42.832906+00:00 +Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,31.886157481601003,3.9006299383100753,,1.57220590543022,18.92803560764648,40.81696083415523,-0.6923076923076922,0.0005287205721233499,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:47:15.684286+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:10.683950+00:00 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,3;5;7;8;10;12,2.1525355654736592e-17,4.460200126004439e-09,,4.917777897764654e-09,0.0,9.966395413084778e-18,0.0,1.0,15,0.0,2026-06-24T12:42:56.996296+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:00.063475+00:00 Chronos-2,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3174901992511709,0.4593814995140698,0.05177657259069808,0.2580649628641479,21.812456385419818,0.48038439030534485,-0.05555555555555555,0.919455467372134,9,1.0,2026-06-17T05:11:12.972050+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:07.199844+00:00 Chronos-2,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,24;60,0.24979693908695205,0.3923629831565423,0.38264310506012383,0.21102044875332462,74.30386079229275,0.3538629748484838,0.16915177248938484,7.508328051253663e-05,247,0.9757085020242915,2026-06-16T12:06:44.487655+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:17.658808+00:00 @@ -23,10 +25,11 @@ Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,13.1679310164 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7353012080246253,0.9210548814864781,0.3822265863016507,0.5233469017573364,14.196412108084301,3.9346114858445556,-0.2993848257006152,0.00011671903021778599,77,1.0,2026-06-16T13:12:26.984109+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:32.852560+00:00 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.11292355512162586,0.31176339152720856,0.03434348952570699,0.15643267717333204,23.44137476016758,0.0840731792184131,-0.342447026657553,1.047621199473378e-05,77,1.0,2026-06-16T13:12:32.541423+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:45.271401+00:00 Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0137938516223457,0.9679096816021674,0.5754536490673791,0.5081611034020338,30.557154807482544,0.5722115952062867,0.239917976760082,0.002017720913257849,77,1.0,2026-06-16T13:12:36.348072+00:00,2026-06-25T11:08:53.651435+00:00 -Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,2.3805849281332176,0.9190385001323718,0.011572496095246585,0.6028793518054121,34.21182979140836,9.854551728713504,0.0034317089910775567,0.9609240273239097,94,1.0,2026-06-16T12:40:50.960167+00:00,2026-06-25T10:56:47.867391+00:00 +Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,2.3566899780158996,0.9128645438876511,0.01152954646882805,0.5984614192514541,34.461965064425456,9.804760241481981,-0.005151175811870101,0.9410524906842594,95,1.0,2026-06-16T12:40:50.960167+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:16.544349+00:00 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.1825154536143472,0.40595419803765587,0.0847285620108957,0.23079307255032713,89.67794151645629,0.09530089019627053,0.6190476190476191,0.06904761904761905,7,1.0,2026-06-17T09:43:59.015450+00:00,2026-06-25T02:35:49.357337+00:00 -Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,12.63949670086158,3.546034982086644,0.040683644513289784,2.747687509836917,-44.479073190086524,1.7245473210924542,-0.4848484848484848,0.031050242838437284,12,1.0,2026-06-25T06:37:03.120200+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:09.048357+00:00 -Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,3.2198793338534015e-06,0.0017944022218703926,,0.003343225851971254,-100.0,,,,1,0.0,2026-06-25T10:57:16.510036+00:00,2026-06-25T10:57:16.510036+00:00 +Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,12.774776222110264,3.5651466644595735,0.0412559830864763,2.793483587429319,-44.86397279549405,1.7216654657909367,-0.282051282051282,0.2043667716671189,13,1.0,2026-06-25T06:37:03.120200+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:26.106416+00:00 +Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,12.711044960622761,3.5652552448068513,0.04393316536331312,2.8031650656273577,-44.23919488539605,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:24:31.773894+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:31.773894+00:00 +Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,3.688452603421904e-06,0.0019205344577543785,,0.0035206921214892017,-100.0,,,,1,0.0,2026-06-25T11:24:37.250231+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:37.250231+00:00 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,4.074228770877594e-14,2.0184718900389952e-07,,1.0216990591831946e-07,0.0,,,,1,0.0,2026-06-25T11:09:15.869937+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:15.869937+00:00 Chronos-Bolt,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.22487951405866288,0.47421462868480013,0.04913755283421481,0.20995248607983505,-1.7255759933117165,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:09:23.654488+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:23.654488+00:00 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.9265395023295016,0.8564102251497466,0.5696038636729975,0.4334293139494534,54.721077706765165,0.9233393289801208,0.8666666666666666,0.016666666666666666,6,1.0,2026-06-25T06:37:18.114052+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:29.872421+00:00 @@ -35,10 +38,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.03504584 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.05859167388813088,0.22851953832446584,0.13196627507615227,0.21973963080650372,57.486606420427236,0.05158873797359716,1.0,1.0,2,1.0,2026-06-25T07:37:49.616032+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:41.356314+00:00 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.03245570693508224,0.1777582564395307,0.013936371963563312,0.10337936336153944,45.3786943348306,0.014724644224085592,1.0,1.0,2,1.0,2026-06-25T07:37:54.735529+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:46.603060+00:00 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.5190162656228736,1.5852546287943445,1.209632837180031,0.9185144186388126,9.951933234942121,0.3468492934266802,1.0,1.0,2,1.0,2026-06-25T07:38:01.826576+00:00,2026-06-25T11:09:54.786649+00:00 -Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,0.195880940826847,0.3959715672041475,0.00938476390896486,0.2932102401862075,58.768055978737245,0.22559582316861593,-1.0,0.3333333333333333,3,1.0,2026-06-25T06:37:37.487769+00:00,2026-06-25T10:57:22.254386+00:00 -ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9325616606081495,1.134755096790406,0.010627835852918223,0.7923040548764813,22.459592591515857,2.487247834882712,0.40025038157466003,2.2831991472374197e-28,342,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.660440+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:08.988761+00:00 +Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,0.24820472134596003,0.4561122794327316,0.010008232293270998,0.34288274192460705,44.39404196557528,0.2118492285848583,-0.3333333333333334,0.75,4,1.0,2026-06-25T06:37:37.487769+00:00,2026-06-25T11:24:42.764499+00:00 +ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9447458793345123,1.1386543388243047,0.01068402106547196,0.7960654266124707,22.361022520672755,2.4938390138074373,0.4028949925834996,8.404083372589211e-29,343,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.660440+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.291268+00:00 +ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.633208989430477,1.9060978436141407,0.021383719089588665,1.4461660222199584,14.983986047877945,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:28:12.316922+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.316922+00:00 ETS,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,3.012456858668924,1.7356430677616075,0.618770085277974,1.0920825657778055,13.76432849378957,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.193145+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:36.193145+00:00 -ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,164.57608861390167,7.153551290267747,,4.566411602188848,20.225224467822617,443.51979607629085,-0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.210089+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.391845+00:00 +ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,164.57608017218658,7.153473785362535,,4.567443370285644,20.225224467822617,443.51979949344945,-0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.210089+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.333827+00:00 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,7;8;10;12,9.147324257830482e-15,9.539730222989587e-08,,1.9433238745617197e-07,0.0,1.2256526212270822e-15,0.0,1.0,13,0.0,2026-06-24T12:46:14.828164+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.000595+00:00 ETS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,4.016595258113816,1.7455783259884101,0.1869290128102823,1.3486708009010233,-71.53841142047237,3.96963456521405,0.2857142857142857,0.39875992063492066,8,1.0,2026-06-18T05:03:30.268230+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.013737+00:00 ETS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,3.018086947661082,1.573201740363638,1.1380303434621961,1.1824279290321122,-2.796261075399262,2.484392302802388,0.02957393483709273,0.5445887993845435,190,0.9736842105263158,2026-06-17T12:10:12.697348+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.036297+00:00 @@ -47,11 +51,12 @@ ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,13.252257299631182, ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,9.019092894545084,2.0120040556968974,1.3696238171382333,1.6049611121937166,-42.29230876667034,22.010335421437745,-0.2324675324675325,0.011400483501177987,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.763932+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.077357+00:00 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.489274930391087,2.3445379893443725,0.2780873336739389,1.875835797164014,-78.85618304968384,12.178626420150913,-0.27811447811447815,0.002715882485929211,55,1.0,2026-06-17T12:39:01.037191+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.101026+00:00 ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2611651245535178,1.076268615055116,0.6365963154594768,0.5635306794214603,24.706272977577733,0.7027301659705367,0.13896103896103898,0.13041879423793123,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.797899+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.124407+00:00 -ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.1838692009116498,0.8563599992434104,0.012382474692173805,0.6108254228531157,24.38917920754616,2.3402642682578065,-0.07305936073059362,0.3605231669939434,73,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.324923+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.423589+00:00 +ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.1690197337271633,0.8487275991647815,0.012293213389077028,0.605825144276675,24.952014776603363,2.3276875170475844,-0.09218807848944836,0.24522843725141885,74,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.324923+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.352009+00:00 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.9496656721394228,0.9717191082970827,0.20602828191825953,0.5206228512663811,53.68143087475858,0.15219267978229262,-0.4285714285714286,0.2388888888888889,7,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.836543+00:00,2026-06-25T02:39:42.312045+00:00 -Moirai-1.1-Large,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9718557979469749,1.1439520667982495,0.011734587133853258,0.6479958222306313,9.246415973961394,2.8020320731707096,0.4059572006940428,2.2423454286229273e-38,456,1.0,2026-06-16T12:07:48.486125+00:00,2026-06-25T11:14:47.969529+00:00 +Moirai-1.1-Large,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9836025192511384,1.1473772554136876,0.011779005985829675,0.65098129634672,9.18182564693239,2.8102001971638724,0.40784675035510004,8.452587016717816e-39,457,1.0,2026-06-16T12:07:48.486125+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:16.062731+00:00 +Moirai-1.1-Large,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,5.227901948380496,2.2864605722339704,0.026474254945543754,1.597999356216252,-3.096036944893824,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:27:21.936224+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:21.936224+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,1.8199605606883722,1.349059139062618,0.6245741448532559,0.7792043597683866,37.17852676540776,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:50:42.572136+00:00,2026-06-24T10:50:42.572136+00:00 -Moirai-1.1-Large,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,33.84521850712616,4.1910648209984265,,1.5188187421170367,15.52364722982837,39.896821829934574,-0.8181818181818181,4.4129288920955584e-05,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:50:49.255677+00:00,2026-06-25T11:01:41.016772+00:00 +Moirai-1.1-Large,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,33.84303189646989,4.186475306870328,,1.518911778894818,15.52364722982837,39.89884184896393,-0.8484848484848484,1.6342325370103148e-05,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:50:49.255677+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:27.870077+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,3;5;7;8;10;12,627.018226848964,13.672792963690062,,9.151362112402904e-10,-100.0,1680.1834782623039,-0.4476190476190477,0.020790615322361355,15,0.0,2026-06-24T12:45:32.441400+00:00,2026-06-25T11:14:55.560744+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.26608981863269354,0.42405432039008567,0.04779795194540718,0.2410482624463792,29.998197239871022,0.38733899452480935,-0.2222222222222222,0.47670855379188715,9,1.0,2026-06-17T05:16:48.534000+00:00,2026-06-25T11:15:01.866060+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,24;60,1.8089787423093624,1.106074711536941,1.1532370423562506,0.5558958588929779,26.850418279001055,2.5410633940749925,0.19444630311140848,5.816450984469635e-06,245,0.9795918367346939,2026-06-16T12:07:52.741323+00:00,2026-06-25T11:15:09.447187+00:00 @@ -60,11 +65,12 @@ Moirai-1.1-Large,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,200314 Moirai-1.1-Large,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.606403105243507,0.9252051504724883,0.38255806220995214,0.5258434399894085,9.930418879371972,3.649476037335893,-0.48737060041407865,2.416734915205332e-09,70,1.0,2026-06-16T13:15:30.361270+00:00,2026-06-25T11:15:23.782663+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.16678375889748748,0.379481936253614,0.040300322456564446,0.19013666456048448,6.542544523219144,0.14251449385460074,-0.03768115942028986,0.6445554782673667,70,1.0,2026-06-16T13:15:35.504692+00:00,2026-06-25T11:15:31.553650+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1593701553273905,1.0385776473394994,0.6113978545124119,0.5060202522346577,22.777930381657896,0.72858480195022,-0.055630936227951164,0.5056557519812731,67,1.0,2026-06-16T13:15:41.040444+00:00,2026-06-25T11:15:38.247876+00:00 -Moirai-1.1-Large,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,2.7750629540937246,1.2309933396036885,0.013946315703228154,0.6743061394553292,7.542231968945989,5.18386118653617,0.03920099875156055,0.5842519872824323,90,1.0,2026-06-16T12:43:22.358427+00:00,2026-06-25T11:01:46.347246+00:00 +Moirai-1.1-Large,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,2.756479127641862,1.2289068399312857,0.013937785107925413,0.6725857589415516,6.969593388559269,5.158028889554815,0.041758241758241756,0.557719540723612,91,1.0,2026-06-16T12:43:22.358427+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:34.321885+00:00 Moirai-1.1-Large,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.21146138218091287,0.4295399361858861,0.07579008996760883,0.2155326078076765,88.47573347209413,0.15721376571334325,0.7142857142857143,0.03015873015873016,7,1.0,2026-06-17T09:46:01.162798+00:00,2026-06-25T02:38:54.659049+00:00 -Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.416037934318239,1.2988053496490204,0.012406392430747202,0.966967987892691,14.85595784122694,2.708035076716941,0.5114472398003808,3.060485745057386e-45,342,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.847893+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.140801+00:00 +Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.4234843194208597,1.301518403672635,0.012447732464926583,0.9695126711640726,14.809553142727012,2.7075874900306114,0.5119431231139072,1.873969376935834e-45,343,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.847893+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.363432+00:00 +Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,4.986732948454463,2.2330994040692556,0.02610738761463159,1.8148121328364644,-0.7355602325824362,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:28:12.370631+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.370631+00:00 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,3.676041974260956,1.9173007000105529,0.862092038435816,1.2555395476546478,3.896249355663171,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.269076+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:36.269076+00:00 -Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,34.282082218922696,4.3275417712706075,,2.0791841615123006,22.68444015950524,40.6212660489692,-0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.277257+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.456576+00:00 +Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,34.282076448770674,4.327488935310004,,2.0792593131318933,22.68444015950524,40.621271360891484,-0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.277257+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.378265+00:00 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,7;8;10;12,9.147324257830482e-15,9.539730222989587e-08,,1.9433238745617197e-07,0.0,1.2256526212270822e-15,0.0,1.0,13,0.0,2026-06-24T12:46:14.873454+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.150470+00:00 Moving-Average,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5300932383345889,0.6718270676933206,0.07385798400180642,0.45133354119183217,-32.972094980000335,0.47713782444056957,0.3571428571428571,0.27509920634920637,8,1.0,2026-06-18T05:03:30.400278+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.159016+00:00 Moving-Average,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,2.622022113900714,1.4833252129150232,1.2591333511324567,1.3063270860242426,5.319075967070454,2.025249883292586,0.13561681982734614,0.00546247643529614,190,0.9736842105263158,2026-06-17T12:10:12.867076+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.175351+00:00 @@ -73,11 +79,12 @@ Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,14.34343 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5871104865278708,0.6857041159749208,0.4276863547228032,0.4646392233601365,0.46853587155446924,0.9010253570659504,-0.7142857142857143,7.58726899686927e-15,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.904026+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.233808+00:00 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34668238095542153,0.5522949339192058,0.06304233204679889,0.3430882780760728,-30.55736543892846,0.25003473915402974,-0.5582491582491583,1.764121641203518e-09,55,1.0,2026-06-17T12:39:01.095906+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.246798+00:00 Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1138190179501957,1.0245513067466279,0.6437574275819727,0.5326815455101006,27.892973053024352,0.5370509651901103,0.13376623376623378,0.14541689401505606,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.921461+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.262863+00:00 -Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.83884584062302,1.0522721686496697,0.015765002792444832,0.7878986682665443,12.01409138125881,3.218644678455489,0.018264840182648404,0.8191859159399626,73,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.359102+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.467173+00:00 +Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.8196479719088143,1.0467912825570826,0.015724352649716875,0.7843855182493413,11.847546090265103,3.200786393013701,0.012217697149203998,0.877607927650004,74,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.359102+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.388272+00:00 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,1.0578347680270574,1.0278621958694054,0.21218650121844568,0.5563288577587656,49.896995813737874,0.08107279054781216,-0.33333333333333337,0.3813492063492063,7,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.956394+00:00,2026-06-25T02:39:42.359615+00:00 -Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.8643748939713656,1.4383462977020784,0.013756422759254025,0.8160882979847305,7.529625010813697e-17,3.146700437062253,0.47385570475553496,4.413155701655975e-39,342,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.963911+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.275792+00:00 +Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.8702099612487326,1.440583936823094,0.013795170992512427,0.8174965751947848,7.507672751306959e-17,3.1439544684643534,0.4742297921674936,2.9870703716027435e-39,343,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:12.963911+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.395422+00:00 +Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,4.913907772539966,2.2167335817684464,0.026609692107947825,1.3020448067364512,-9.03739407425866e-15,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:28:12.401405+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.401405+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,3.9741110106425035,1.9935172461362112,0.8264244641534466,1.59463406458511,5.5872773641804445e-15,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.314295+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:36.314295+00:00 -Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,36.319239688644394,4.966901231980168,,2.044932940083851,6.4655845376413244e-15,36.82546776772179,-0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.320978+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.496984+00:00 +Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,36.319239688644394,4.966901231980168,,2.044932940083851,6.4655845376413244e-15,36.82546776772179,-0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:36.320978+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.407763+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,7;8;10;12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,8,0.0,2026-06-24T14:18:12.253684+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.303473+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.2371705807842771,0.4559274095846977,0.05117138002010683,0.31859186127072076,-6.721503251760954e-16,0.21275033779215638,0.14285714285714285,0.7195436507936508,8,1.0,2026-06-18T05:03:30.473716+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.310447+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,2.7728618950388197,1.5400689575502982,1.2617746798066811,1.362564515366026,1.1470917239922088e-15,2.0471995790294804,0.13973823447507655,0.004198470636319073,190,0.9736842105263158,2026-06-17T12:10:12.978229+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.321208+00:00 @@ -86,11 +93,12 @@ Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,14.42629 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.6400095572225754,0.70346862452932,0.38212396157544143,0.5375692694265766,5.3663306978254856e-17,0.9503264356082465,-0.4038961038961039,1.1026051926393258e-05,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:13.010113+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.340348+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.19676590915348238,0.4076444133367451,0.04684445864462442,0.27793132215243005,1.2142431664156158e-15,0.14566550993953137,-0.5353535353535355,7.864623950170293e-09,55,1.0,2026-06-17T12:39:01.134217+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.355804+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.9934574013901294,1.3795716639547333,0.7497860298282996,1.0287036832529322,-5.4955773898371393e-17,0.8170385056187839,0.4025974025974027,1.1766411933291437e-05,56,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:13.024713+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:09.373670+00:00 -Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,2.073388495762517,1.172658555894168,0.016272352931384952,0.6376578658390043,2.6901100786302316e-15,3.291863677608759,-0.007995432486067868,0.920333821978677,73,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.384303+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:25.511432+00:00 +Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,2.0509861720935607,1.1655237550021815,0.016213331431025182,0.632779698379912,2.7440027680509297e-15,3.2749138980221337,-0.020003707477837578,0.8010303859519905,74,1.0,2026-06-17T12:26:17.384303+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:12.417105+00:00 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,3.2530044991445655,1.7948895425528726,0.3851271483382678,1.4441605878777541,-7.649968393293107e-16,0.6818503650705655,0.6190476190476191,0.06904761904761905,7,1.0,2026-06-17T12:10:13.040774+00:00,2026-06-25T02:39:42.426452+00:00 -TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3616830492956717,0.953842647522525,0.009799391873480227,0.5547315307604794,22.659214224857344,1.9662522121596757,0.5223643080420575,6.533061137095841e-63,460,1.0,2026-06-16T12:07:33.925127+00:00,2026-06-25T11:13:18.737098+00:00 +TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.373863454870796,0.9575032334342694,0.009848798957843864,0.5576554176356103,22.571394248142038,1.9814484862957271,0.5242667169668962,1.7166459339381477e-63,461,1.0,2026-06-16T12:07:33.925127+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:26.127605+00:00 +TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,4.995999153727317,2.2351731820436904,0.026407447350572186,1.4875641257943675,-0.828376914113693,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:26:32.464875+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:32.464875+00:00 TiRex,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,2.8564692708326462,1.6901092481945201,0.6820653407770266,0.8258398901350078,16.362324923417617,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:49:37.384120+00:00,2026-06-24T10:49:37.384120+00:00 -TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,31.3901183394082,3.591218888361909,,1.4516279595078971,37.82366707131955,41.21431936936191,-0.9230769230769229,1.4164076664076665e-07,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:49:46.896694+00:00,2026-06-25T11:01:02.641650+00:00 +TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,31.39011836215997,3.5912397285106414,,1.4516326971088818,37.82366707131955,41.21431935058942,-0.9230769230769229,1.4164076664076665e-07,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:49:46.896694+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:39.142229+00:00 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,3;5;7;8;10;12,1.0418749260552091e-16,1.0104696339975292e-08,,2.0371169800427016e-08,0.0,2.6410620372954857e-17,0.0,1.0,15,0.0,2026-06-24T12:44:44.437377+00:00,2026-06-25T11:13:27.925290+00:00 TiRex,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30328572782390517,0.4295294482425179,0.047013698126344164,0.23662964635064532,34.498405919287244,0.45283767404955205,0.1111111111111111,0.761414241622575,9,1.0,2026-06-17T05:15:19.765080+00:00,2026-06-25T11:13:36.078474+00:00 TiRex,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,24;60,0.34847019151297837,0.46844101611048045,0.4961705077459267,0.2331845638316578,71.17356030093558,0.5045351717324655,0.2502405840384934,5.044473621091164e-09,246,0.975609756097561,2026-06-16T12:07:37.946365+00:00,2026-06-25T11:13:44.484865+00:00 @@ -99,11 +107,12 @@ TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,12.96529610165246 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.6671612123730095,0.8848202121993506,0.3307990586044867,0.5070915892094364,21.412098253988205,3.8267282953480786,-0.5045662100456622,2.7040874884471516e-10,73,1.0,2026-06-16T13:14:34.959433+00:00,2026-06-25T11:14:02.928707+00:00 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.12833059460826093,0.3260116010677524,0.036538497046490655,0.17061990073216962,21.544616119204054,0.10299468893725412,-0.34170471841704725,1.897877452522298e-05,73,1.0,2026-06-16T13:14:39.480658+00:00,2026-06-25T11:14:09.420240+00:00 TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,0.9574653125611167,0.9431592618323921,0.5891813778755578,0.49841821970184846,31.413969051362855,0.5439248480757569,0.18309859154929578,0.022902112688018617,72,1.0,2026-06-16T13:14:44.379149+00:00,2026-06-25T11:14:16.280156+00:00 -TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.387696945465774,0.8108918510900551,0.009804985446601844,0.5217235451390276,36.495496420080805,2.986441597276622,-0.007166746297181079,0.9194043696706345,92,1.0,2026-06-16T12:42:39.570887+00:00,2026-06-25T11:01:09.978954+00:00 +TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.3773711045610504,0.8092021922443836,0.009830272932014762,0.5201246826061737,36.08804978403418,2.971835377438404,-0.0070126227208976155,0.9206899114363875,93,1.0,2026-06-16T12:42:39.570887+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:45.662246+00:00 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.17585374714338403,0.3860122893127624,0.07480175655600008,0.22590335659095545,90.36658726464965,0.15637216162448206,0.4285714285714286,0.2388888888888889,7,1.0,2026-06-17T09:45:42.165364+00:00,2026-06-25T02:38:08.307904+00:00 -Timer-S1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.1714409841754883,1.1212143375165426,0.01122763346646914,0.6946799764653107,23.078124811203455,3.606366921869542,0.5811667288032495,4.163412673126476e-76,452,1.0,2026-06-16T12:08:03.698792+00:00,2026-06-25T11:16:01.683237+00:00 +Timer-S1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.1988474003768297,1.1271702305732547,0.011310031188810212,0.7003188426886208,22.916866076364965,3.6492960795338436,0.5829963468713982,9.656031684109497e-77,453,1.0,2026-06-16T12:08:03.698792+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:53.005520+00:00 +Timer-S1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,12.953363463626859,3.5990781408059007,0.04438931189819537,2.8825192464323166,-44.99543094646413,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:27:58.075713+00:00,2026-06-25T11:27:58.075713+00:00 Timer-S1,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,1.521603831386306,1.2335330686229315,0.9524471402012793,0.5698934320992546,44.62580846627088,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:52:21.603562+00:00,2026-06-24T10:52:21.603562+00:00 -Timer-S1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,33.93959310101176,3.817331466739736,,1.5017618055421857,38.28376441047056,41.91985428020983,-0.8484848484848484,1.6342325370103148e-05,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:25.227109+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:17.411983+00:00 +Timer-S1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,33.939593297800926,3.8173606157950775,,1.5017509708336807,38.28376441047056,41.91985410639916,-0.8484848484848484,1.6342325370103148e-05,12,0.0,2026-06-24T10:52:25.227109+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:03.200136+00:00 Timer-S1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,7;8;10;12,9.526756626755283e-17,9.698442124542431e-09,,8.076605272668904e-09,0.0,2.487217838743811e-17,0.0,1.0,13,0.0,2026-06-24T12:46:05.681734+00:00,2026-06-25T11:16:12.087662+00:00 Timer-S1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.2640112863596324,0.42844814338834475,0.047418440806906215,0.2253874289988357,25.46921739497518,0.3657802089603486,-0.3888888888888889,0.18018077601410934,9,1.0,2026-06-17T05:17:34.201964+00:00,2026-06-25T11:16:20.232729+00:00 Timer-S1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,24;60,0.15072627949609974,0.2941789115665786,0.3507046253113202,0.15458786468043778,87.37167828249127,0.34164787984330564,0.3322959889349931,1.5647865266041177e-14,241,0.979253112033195,2026-06-16T12:08:08.243141+00:00,2026-06-25T11:16:29.041974+00:00 @@ -112,11 +121,12 @@ Timer-S1,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,12.69341891784 Timer-S1,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.5809583845250008,0.878930960082038,0.3495421086943232,0.5092169501503683,17.842950285610797,3.7227568676272345,-0.5776223776223777,7.044230630321394e-12,66,1.0,2026-06-16T13:16:21.589465+00:00,2026-06-25T11:16:45.295753+00:00 Timer-S1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.11319493778053949,0.3181290145455768,0.03484768363300461,0.16192450563779476,19.29969750883419,0.07419246789576091,-0.08904428904428903,0.2905052529285407,66,1.0,2026-06-16T13:16:28.640897+00:00,2026-06-25T11:16:54.482892+00:00 Timer-S1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0151779632924303,0.9832605822474866,0.6253875329786489,0.5237828980690076,27.69674221895565,0.45560089144585664,0.075990675990676,0.36702554537096377,66,1.0,2026-06-16T13:16:37.448453+00:00,2026-06-25T11:17:04.559470+00:00 -Timer-S1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.5375394528800057,0.8847246955928851,0.011069006195494604,0.5937108526033787,29.537856667300083,3.081560085541126,-0.024859663191659984,0.733145277987436,87,1.0,2026-06-16T12:43:54.916074+00:00,2026-06-25T11:02:22.466406+00:00 +Timer-S1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.5242191787781219,0.8815397138466914,0.011074002240884874,0.5919159713831369,29.27533245845708,3.066345839093334,-0.026123301985370953,0.7185410643694781,88,1.0,2026-06-16T12:43:54.916074+00:00,2026-06-25T11:28:08.480462+00:00 Timer-S1,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.252887257580452,0.48383322513642896,0.10575594820898143,0.2537490988069346,86.14107873843024,0.13333871815346174,0.6,0.1361111111111111,6,1.0,2026-06-17T09:46:15.518954+00:00,2026-06-25T02:39:38.748174+00:00 -TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.1861956801649383,0.8771975161358645,0.008731803714756358,0.6475833054335745,31.908763450653836,1.691084214994734,0.4718732481091066,1.9548475514851167e-52,467,1.0,2026-06-16T12:06:55.147862+00:00,2026-06-25T11:10:19.663998+00:00 +TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.1958031242379252,0.8804167419340274,0.008770907117635025,0.6509754309944924,31.824039019666376,1.7020105528608462,0.4738190669668186,5.787098228610863e-53,468,1.0,2026-06-16T12:06:55.147862+00:00,2026-06-25T11:25:07.304589+00:00 +TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,4.938441522929516,2.222260453441386,0.024627265799957415,2.0471324559849173,-0.24901421634362933,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:25:23.999952+00:00,2026-06-25T11:25:23.999952+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,3.101390762367535,1.7610765918515683,0.6894371389934627,1.1988933120136298,12.334393747225347,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:47:58.411321+00:00,2026-06-24T10:47:58.411321+00:00 -TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,31.346009504081565,3.5420982574985014,,1.4367216352165961,38.89345482998651,41.2258050959853,-0.8717948717948716,1.8079271551493775e-06,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:48:06.864145+00:00,2026-06-25T10:59:43.581580+00:00 +TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,31.346009553340465,3.5421168316075624,,1.4367219063394567,38.89345482998651,41.22580505541018,-0.8717948717948716,1.8079271551493775e-06,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:48:06.864145+00:00,2026-06-25T11:25:30.165212+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,3;5;7;8;10;12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,15,0.0,2026-06-24T12:43:37.524229+00:00,2026-06-25T11:10:26.772395+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3070527912242002,0.4775557359918772,0.053470082565890295,0.31861130254588277,14.635351526305056,0.3609241951712301,-0.3333333333333333,0.25951829805996474,9,1.0,2026-06-17T05:12:05.733003+00:00,2026-06-25T11:10:46.694388+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,24;60,0.11468052382244458,0.26950867068496404,0.276449480290647,0.19223576227862713,85.59189846480557,0.17615572969323,0.10808030529284884,0.011576752189759726,246,0.975609756097561,2026-06-16T12:07:01.390017+00:00,2026-06-25T11:10:53.319173+00:00 @@ -125,11 +135,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,12.93146353 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.6247168015933888,0.8701999922535987,0.3008845099990297,0.6515152301667823,21.095478188880453,3.8268286770160254,-0.41924741924741926,5.5739131743118964e-08,78,1.0,2026-06-16T13:13:12.832013+00:00,2026-06-25T11:11:05.931652+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.10069681270091971,0.2928435658076065,0.035202522330464774,0.2082064541416893,26.771421491261933,0.08554009074475886,-0.16910094125283998,0.027414662272394655,79,1.0,2026-06-16T13:13:17.753731+00:00,2026-06-25T11:11:12.162036+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,0.9279874879163813,0.9347112639515098,0.5093601868894532,0.6940200017838727,32.60509632957176,0.46752706577899716,0.19343814080656185,0.012794389467689349,77,1.0,2026-06-16T13:13:22.668298+00:00,2026-06-25T11:11:17.961901+00:00 -TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.3318683259573738,0.803426983013248,0.010311657322466809,0.6342968539112442,36.72888387663862,2.8715451595245702,0.00526195378631892,0.940115869633717,94,1.0,2026-06-16T12:41:30.056174+00:00,2026-06-25T10:59:50.365581+00:00 +TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.3216864102415617,0.8013257500167122,0.010317629609424697,0.6328462910170995,36.411112820783764,2.8579537106841237,0.005151175811870101,0.9410524906842594,95,1.0,2026-06-16T12:41:30.056174+00:00,2026-06-25T11:25:36.545893+00:00 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.18041651688373883,0.4102861807583566,0.07019847102072298,0.3284682031086703,89.69108239547668,0.09335500251468391,0.33333333333333337,0.3813492063492063,7,1.0,2026-06-17T09:44:33.543452+00:00,2026-06-25T02:36:39.115741+00:00 -Toto-2.0-1B,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3571040732528716,0.9118911936111345,0.009191124162972143,0.5293187972388136,29.15662912509728,2.05500007374559,0.4106950862963313,1.1909153723739894e-39,461,1.0,2026-06-16T12:07:16.543073+00:00,2026-06-25T11:11:50.374886+00:00 +Toto-2.0-1B,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3692426942511313,0.9156298630820905,0.009241669185263575,0.5321697682036876,29.05511150962045,2.06928457079233,0.4130395995905757,3.6133844102922484e-40,462,1.0,2026-06-16T12:07:16.543073+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:01.804347+00:00 +Toto-2.0-1B,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,4.480152715360922,2.1166371241573088,0.024869888526069653,1.362383486984731,4.617333023751547,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-25T11:26:06.887468+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:06.887468+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Finance,1mo,12,2.59039916867846,1.6094717048393428,0.618111195369563,0.6558362744768197,21.07867615656856,,,,1,1.0,2026-06-24T10:49:11.363722+00:00,2026-06-24T10:49:11.363722+00:00 -Toto-2.0-1B,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,32.12219758991835,3.7524672018070677,,1.6231384666165012,30.31975341995837,40.70801956405427,-0.8717948717948716,1.8079271551493775e-06,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:49:15.506331+00:00,2026-06-25T11:00:25.018137+00:00 +Toto-2.0-1B,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,32.122197633069064,3.752492590828194,,1.6231498279908085,30.31975341995837,40.7080195271671,-0.8717948717948716,1.8079271551493775e-06,13,0.0,2026-06-24T10:49:15.506331+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:11.871259+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,3;5;7;8;10;12,4.397391215039669e-21,3.683539316785657e-11,,7.116344865571472e-11,0.0,1.510842208113115e-20,0.0,1.0,15,0.0,2026-06-24T12:44:19.286476+00:00,2026-06-25T11:11:55.937725+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.37262183025933576,0.5071918263526503,0.056278293273872904,0.27570566000385127,12.254121733509761,0.5248928695138565,-0.16666666666666666,0.612202380952381,9,1.0,2026-06-17T05:14:00.045696+00:00,2026-06-25T11:12:01.624085+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,24;60,0.2174865331461864,0.3510565776416991,0.31261639968571386,0.1841400462027947,80.6890977290685,0.34812242044820835,0.28424222147875544,3.442370385908749e-11,245,0.9755102040816327,2026-06-16T12:07:21.772238+00:00,2026-06-25T11:12:07.321263+00:00 @@ -138,5 +149,5 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,12.92809487 Toto-2.0-1B,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7807077272246565,0.8991295754623204,0.35372091953670814,0.5189989932707088,20.89041385208352,4.189974689216079,-0.3402443539429841,1.7969723358440377e-05,74,1.0,2026-06-16T13:14:00.702950+00:00,2026-06-25T11:12:27.747763+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.17116219699435745,0.38646533556322776,0.04233488288108245,0.19150727959559102,1.1304487169677369,0.12374689005396503,-0.23099099099099102,0.003366551644374822,75,1.0,2026-06-16T13:14:04.647184+00:00,2026-06-25T11:12:33.781968+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,0.9932748189956032,0.9618227625225412,0.5855170261093336,0.5039597557698443,30.579878230603608,0.5430759073378422,0.17261261261261263,0.028445569135547306,75,1.0,2026-06-16T13:14:10.213066+00:00,2026-06-25T11:12:39.752566+00:00 -Toto-2.0-1B,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.2556340546125129,0.7901702199957705,0.009155714036847772,0.4436665236237357,37.36105789023904,2.7273198877834774,0.05605124685426676,0.4235738660667996,94,1.0,2026-06-16T12:42:15.154825+00:00,2026-06-25T11:00:29.704814+00:00 +Toto-2.0-1B,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,1.246762357503286,0.7886159324379163,0.009184485229964588,0.4428651946334966,36.971333346646205,2.7141518682982015,0.05487122060470324,0.4308738436765085,95,1.0,2026-06-16T12:42:15.154825+00:00,2026-06-25T11:26:17.115503+00:00 Toto-2.0-1B,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,2;7,0.2516186076354473,0.47934679119666385,0.10076013217150628,0.26364655471971926,85.97273373689099,0.12255450632435848,0.5238095238095238,0.1361111111111111,7,1.0,2026-06-17T09:45:14.891814+00:00,2026-06-25T02:37:31.507256+00:00 diff --git a/results/aggregates/metadata.json b/results/aggregates/metadata.json index 86e47f61cd54e013f7fadf126840bb5b76e128ae..f102fdd70ac61f013c6badf1e4933d73257aa187 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/metadata.json +++ b/results/aggregates/metadata.json @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ { - "generated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.541012+00:00", + "generated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.561871+00:00", "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive", "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric", "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations", @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ "frequency", "prediction_length" ], - "num_configs": 207, + "num_configs": 208, "num_models": 13, "num_rows_missing_prediction_length": 97 } diff --git a/results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv b/results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv index 8a38200b25e61d18234dc3257f76192950ee5afa..d47bde992227ff88ab6fd936ab3a5cbd3a176b52 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv @@ -10,16 +10,16 @@ Air Quality,Chronos-Bolt,0.5313865314671053,0.8848245449341612,8.0,1,1,1.0 Air Quality,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.6790789032493985,0.9269826935239956,9.0,1,1,1.0 Air Quality,ARIMA,1.1590060615857931,0.9636704303200554,10.0,1,1,1.0 Air Quality,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,ARIMA,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,Chronos-2,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,Chronos-Bolt,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,ETS,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,Moirai-1.1-Large,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,TiRex,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,Timer-S1,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,TimesFM-2.5,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,Toto-2.0-1B,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Climate,Moving-Average,,,,1,1,1.0 +Climate,ARIMA,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,Chronos-2,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,Chronos-Bolt,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,ETS,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,Moirai-1.1-Large,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,Moving-Average,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,TiRex,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,Timer-S1,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,TimesFM-2.5,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +Climate,Toto-2.0-1B,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 Climate,Seasonal-Naive,,,,1,1,1.0 Econ/Fin,Seasonal-Naive,,,1.0,6,12,0.5 Econ/Fin,TabPFN-TS,,,1.1666666666666667,6,12,0.5 @@ -27,17 +27,17 @@ Econ/Fin,Sundial,,,1.8333333333333333,6,12,0.5 Energy,Seasonal-Naive,,,1.0,32,64,0.5 Energy,Sundial,,,1.34375,32,64,0.5 Energy,TabPFN-TS,,,1.65625,32,64,0.5 -Finance,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9648825193530074,0.8440093190356691,3.0,2,2,1.0 -Finance,ARIMA,1.0115681017879872,0.8535469794175606,3.5,2,2,1.0 -Finance,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.834149730925616,0.8776300921732461,4.5,2,2,1.0 -Finance,TiRex,1.014051630030163,0.9060461342401582,5.0,2,2,1.0 -Finance,Timer-S1,1.0694408095923027,1.0142216979669025,5.5,2,2,1.0 -Finance,Moving-Average,0.9711975498093646,1.041016891237374,6.0,2,2,1.0 -Finance,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,6.0,2,2,1.0 -Finance,Chronos-2,1.0748038679807084,0.9652865947941742,6.5,2,2,1.0 -Finance,ETS,0.9745080739298109,1.02903917824809,7.0,2,2,1.0 -Finance,TimesFM-2.5,0.9536740083252059,1.0607837705826537,8.0,2,2,1.0 -Finance,Chronos-Bolt,2.948534495856384,2.1443504985079493,11.0,1,2,0.5 +Finance,ARIMA,1.008732302916254,0.7898119979901553,2.6666666666666665,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9475222715868759,0.8698151807949462,2.6666666666666665,3,3,1.0 +Finance,TiRex,1.0156948764119464,0.9364333354934495,4.666666666666667,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.9024505988120076,0.9368764883038047,5.0,3,3,1.0 +Finance,ETS,0.8895801081199671,1.0123436737912248,5.666666666666667,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5.666666666666667,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Moving-Average,0.9860860023090979,1.095590847232207,6.333333333333333,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Chronos-2,1.1612433446711292,1.0564326063902174,7.0,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Timer-S1,1.446344384889575,1.2474789608338912,7.333333333333333,3,3,1.0 +Finance,TimesFM-2.5,0.9711528508313284,1.1355491267865998,8.333333333333334,3,3,1.0 +Finance,Chronos-Bolt,2.7666417077630148,1.9867884579509119,10.5,2,3,0.6666666666666666 Hazards,Timer-S1,0.6777723631893693,0.6392985823145042,1.0,1,1,1.0 Hazards,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7041466643395133,0.6396760609316321,2.0,1,1,1.0 Hazards,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.7381429437564966,0.6502934463828633,3.0,1,1,1.0 @@ -52,17 +52,17 @@ Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11.0,1,1,1.0 Healthcare,Seasonal-Naive,,,1.0,5,10,0.5 Healthcare,TabPFN-TS,,,1.0,5,10,0.5 Healthcare,Sundial,,,2.0,5,10,0.5 -Hydrology,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2486171239197254,0.37406321545279464,1.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.1801585351785024,0.48039357649760195,2.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,Timer-S1,0.23026579895019528,0.48616106371320783,3.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,TiRex,0.24517533343831693,0.508753799441664,4.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,0.22737224848270415,0.6181631146779136,5.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,Chronos-2,0.48545976672172547,0.7497082950127837,6.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.21732617518703143,0.8265203015338034,7.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,ETS,0.6166056185713762,0.9765233407410273,8.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,ARIMA,0.5964138448904763,1.1383721450952078,10.0,1,1,1.0 -Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.7104607283015127,1.2154093750343253,11.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,ETS,0.20453620153894883,0.5925125446639942,1.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Chronos-2,0.26602566359554025,0.5996882699819726,2.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9932781428882055,0.9552562349759597,3.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,TiRex,1.028336689742974,0.9695053992638216,4.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,ARIMA,1.0035924950792952,1.0054874006237182,6.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Timer-S1,0.8790683069774082,1.1097004676232,7.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.877218046275207,1.2165158785306522,8.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,0.9748795337898392,1.2307240553635834,9.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Moirai-1.1-Large,2.608016360139847,1.2964133629432089,10.0,1,1,1.0 +Hydrology,Moving-Average,1.0062245152359597,1.2989878542510054,11.0,1,1,1.0 Nature,Seasonal-Naive,,,1.0,15,30,0.5 Nature,TabPFN-TS,,,1.3333333333333333,15,30,0.5 Nature,Sundial,,,1.6666666666666667,15,30,0.5 diff --git a/results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv b/results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv index 4108f07e7536945ddc339d9f0f38ff6294ecd7b0..cfa999dc87e3fafa78872cd0848c4f02d4c20e93 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv @@ -19,17 +19,17 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage 15T,Seasonal-Naive,,,1.0,12,24,0.5 15T,Sundial,,,1.3333333333333333,12,24,0.5 15T,TabPFN-TS,,,1.6666666666666667,12,24,0.5 -15min,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2486171239197254,0.37406321545279464,1.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,TimesFM-2.5,0.1801585351785024,0.48039357649760195,2.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,Timer-S1,0.23026579895019528,0.48616106371320783,3.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,TiRex,0.24517533343831693,0.508753799441664,4.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,Chronos-Bolt,0.22737224848270415,0.6181631146779136,5.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,Chronos-2,0.48545976672172547,0.7497082950127837,6.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.21732617518703143,0.8265203015338034,7.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,ETS,0.6166056185713762,0.9765233407410273,8.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,ARIMA,0.5964138448904763,1.1383721450952078,10.0,1,1,1.0 -15min,Moving-Average,0.7104607283015127,1.2154093750343253,11.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,ETS,0.20453620153894883,0.5925125446639942,1.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Chronos-2,0.26602566359554025,0.5996882699819726,2.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9932781428882055,0.9552562349759597,3.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,TiRex,1.028336689742974,0.9695053992638216,4.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,ARIMA,1.0035924950792952,1.0054874006237182,6.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Timer-S1,0.8790683069774082,1.1097004676232,7.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,TimesFM-2.5,0.877218046275207,1.2165158785306522,8.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Chronos-Bolt,0.9748795337898392,1.2307240553635834,9.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Moirai-1.1-Large,2.608016360139847,1.2964133629432089,10.0,1,1,1.0 +15min,Moving-Average,1.0062245152359597,1.2989878542510054,11.0,1,1,1.0 1D,Chronos-2,0.08726886534413426,0.22294261344880087,1.0,1,1,1.0 1D,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.13431050221434995,0.2311922050685756,2.0,1,1,1.0 1D,Timer-S1,0.12027886634187647,0.2472452491921797,3.0,1,1,1.0 @@ -40,17 +40,17 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage 1D,Moving-Average,0.25627532007498555,0.3855221985813308,8.0,1,1,1.0 1D,ARIMA,0.3687802372064497,0.4083506869323253,9.0,1,1,1.0 1D,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10.0,1,1,1.0 -1h,Timer-S1,0.5490463672846617,0.8444968956280482,4.333333333333333,6,6,1.0 -1h,TiRex,0.6173429055902933,0.8112264680398504,4.5,6,6,1.0 -1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.48703820567697376,0.8169258547247024,4.833333333333333,6,6,1.0 -1h,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.7456451519363642,0.8246033361012525,5.166666666666667,6,6,1.0 -1h,Chronos-2,0.716067628090616,0.8284524214724615,5.333333333333333,6,6,1.0 -1h,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5887833798777383,0.884543621554772,5.333333333333333,6,6,1.0 -1h,ETS,2.875161039492385,1.687945368015861,6.333333333333333,6,6,1.0 -1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.9056597919482079,0.932116538746856,6.833333333333333,6,6,1.0 -1h,Moving-Average,1.3658205859231296,1.1536128204526535,7.166666666666667,6,6,1.0 -1h,ARIMA,1.890041964161506,1.2832318917232153,8.0,6,6,1.0 -1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8.166666666666666,6,6,1.0 +1h,TiRex,0.6631600348953728,0.8358731555232989,4.428571428571429,7,7,1.0 +1h,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6269339783427111,0.8900503410059312,4.857142857142857,7,7,1.0 +1h,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.7836810649325024,0.8555997473155721,5.285714285714286,7,7,1.0 +1h,Timer-S1,0.6873296994267587,0.9473029534160737,5.285714285714286,7,7,1.0 +1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.5402993401056035,0.873103440419389,5.428571428571429,7,7,1.0 +1h,Chronos-2,0.7844186864618643,0.880127249448593,5.714285714285714,7,7,1.0 +1h,ETS,2.36900150376089,1.5617447676236311,5.857142857142857,7,7,1.0 +1h,ARIMA,1.7265000770576155,1.1710188443986884,7.0,7,7,1.0 +1h,Moving-Average,1.30939345092233,1.1619798109759507,7.142857142857143,7,7,1.0 +1h,Chronos-Bolt,1.052685383154641,1.0272823436806726,7.285714285714286,7,7,1.0 +1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7.714285714285714,7,7,1.0 1mo,Timer-S1,0.3828790457316151,0.4909869342196272,1.0,1,1,1.0 1mo,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6518185228700153,0.5822432804040559,2.0,1,1,1.0 1mo,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.457954132588293,0.5887255627707786,3.0,1,1,1.0 @@ -64,16 +64,16 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage 5T,Seasonal-Naive,,,1.0,12,24,0.5 5T,Sundial,,,1.0833333333333333,12,24,0.5 5T,TabPFN-TS,,,1.9166666666666667,12,24,0.5 -5min,ARIMA,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,Chronos-2,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,Chronos-Bolt,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,ETS,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,Moirai-1.1-Large,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,Moving-Average,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,TiRex,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,Timer-S1,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,TimesFM-2.5,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 -5min,Toto-2.0-1B,,,5.0,2,2,1.0 +5min,ARIMA,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,Chronos-2,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,Chronos-Bolt,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,ETS,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,Moirai-1.1-Large,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,Moving-Average,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,TiRex,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,Timer-S1,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,Toto-2.0-1B,,,5.25,2,2,1.0 +5min,TimesFM-2.5,,,5.5,2,2,1.0 5min,Seasonal-Naive,,,,2,2,1.0 6min,Timer-S1,0.0032235303023165902,0.042116795848451814,1.0,1,1,1.0 6min,TimesFM-2.5,0.002988867636583695,0.047228920766201665,2.0,1,1,1.0 diff --git a/results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv b/results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv index 9ed8ed00f13419b5afbee73effa3ca3aa856cde9..06ca99104da3f757b89aa6b19b4dcf6a487e223f 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv @@ -20,29 +20,29 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage 12,Moving-Average,0.9249973049108767,0.8887079460534169,7.0,2,2,1.0 12,TimesFM-2.5,0.7803986235065251,0.7985326751147283,8.0,2,2,1.0 12,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10.0,2,2,1.0 -24,TabPFN-TS,,,1.3454545454545455,55,62,0.8870967741935484 -24,Sundial,,,1.6545454545454545,55,62,0.8870967741935484 -24,Timer-S1,0.4849507699175347,0.7804379145467825,4.142857142857143,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,TiRex,0.5410453255458162,0.7589170920735647,4.428571428571429,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,TimesFM-2.5,0.4225341945013901,0.7572544997568125,4.428571428571429,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5205546465327766,0.782209224761598,4.714285714285714,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,Chronos-2,0.6773913412069131,0.8167160804887132,5.428571428571429,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.6252354644025524,0.8248769158575155,5.428571428571429,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,Chronos-Bolt,0.74339268393664,0.8790006490913034,6.571428571428571,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,ETS,2.3074913156902306,1.5610064819873326,6.571428571428571,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,Moving-Average,1.2440652037725262,1.1622447015812158,7.714285714285714,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,ARIMA,1.6029165533949568,1.2614603069707855,8.285714285714286,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8.285714285714286,7,62,0.11290322580645161 -36,ARIMA,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,Chronos-2,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,Chronos-Bolt,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,ETS,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,Moirai-1.1-Large,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,TiRex,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,Timer-S1,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,TimesFM-2.5,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,Toto-2.0-1B,,,5.0,1,1,1.0 -36,Moving-Average,,,,1,1,1.0 +24,TabPFN-TS,,,1.3454545454545455,55,63,0.873015873015873 +24,Sundial,,,1.6545454545454545,55,63,0.873015873015873 +24,TiRex,0.7005400498085136,0.8515136410409971,4.375,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6640533042707877,0.8979511989921029,4.625,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Chronos-2,0.6852434318198557,0.8389150355304705,5.25,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,ETS,1.7441785557566125,1.3835536226752878,5.25,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Timer-S1,0.7087976993033237,0.9662255135864901,5.5,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,TimesFM-2.5,0.5740418787647715,0.9100645758455687,5.75,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.9107742077750492,0.9012177857661896,5.875,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,ARIMA,1.613301183622952,1.1489218201251727,6.875,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7.375,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Chronos-Bolt,1.042629809927591,1.0507482659659277,7.5,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +24,Moving-Average,1.2669901998283148,1.1782824141504258,7.625,8,63,0.12698412698412698 +36,ARIMA,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,Chronos-2,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,Chronos-Bolt,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,ETS,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,Moirai-1.1-Large,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,Moving-Average,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,TiRex,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,Timer-S1,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,TimesFM-2.5,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 +36,Toto-2.0-1B,,,5.5,1,1,1.0 36,Seasonal-Naive,,,,1,1,1.0 48,Sundial,,,1.380952380952381,21,21,1.0 48,TabPFN-TS,,,1.619047619047619,21,21,1.0 diff --git a/results/aggregates/results_overall.csv b/results/aggregates/results_overall.csv index aacd6f6a0188f5811a8ec5b06d682d648c94c169..f6fd5b2e357e92dee13a8fcdcabb9acabff08043 100644 --- a/results/aggregates/results_overall.csv +++ b/results/aggregates/results_overall.csv @@ -1,14 +1,14 @@ overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage -Overall,TabPFN-TS,,,1.4639175257731958,97,207,0.46859903381642515 -Overall,Sundial,,,1.5360824742268042,97,207,0.46859903381642515 -Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1.7777777777777777,110,207,0.5314009661835749 -Overall,Timer-S1,0.2717444527619622,0.5123917823156366,3.5384615384615383,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,Toto-2.0-1B,0.28224531393922964,0.5593055432188833,4.3076923076923075,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.26385309610383667,0.5543994209334923,4.666666666666667,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.44615992019563333,0.612284529847008,4.6923076923076925,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,TiRex,0.3602754059822118,0.5956590200274889,5.076923076923077,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,Chronos-2,0.36633402842754964,0.5978191867763678,5.153846153846154,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,ETS,1.0110886548005047,0.9861373732475982,6.538461538461538,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.6856687320058139,0.7883907607803196,6.636363636363637,11,207,0.05314009661835749 -Overall,ARIMA,0.9397370456873344,0.9187762994766668,7.538461538461538,13,207,0.06280193236714976 -Overall,Moving-Average,1.0042052976972182,0.9915393191912554,7.583333333333333,13,207,0.06280193236714976 +Overall,TabPFN-TS,,,1.4639175257731958,97,208,0.46634615384615385 +Overall,Sundial,,,1.5360824742268042,97,208,0.46634615384615385 +Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1.7706422018348624,111,208,0.5336538461538461 +Overall,Toto-2.0-1B,0.34935834015353884,0.6305823470032421,4.321428571428571,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,Timer-S1,0.3672866969541373,0.6118668631962036,4.392857142857143,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.5896777225904173,0.6658350881414689,5.035714285714286,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,TiRex,0.44274202671265717,0.6562897539323893,5.035714285714286,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,Chronos-2,0.38856256170253123,0.624634836947778,5.107142857142857,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.3366084218051667,0.6431731766352037,5.5,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,ETS,0.8987089196563381,0.9454107840727217,5.821428571428571,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,ARIMA,0.9867370162276126,0.8863930853623598,6.821428571428571,14,208,0.0673076923076923 +Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.9060542939787934,0.9193351853700527,7.291666666666667,12,208,0.057692307692307696 +Overall,Moving-Average,1.0348108399064937,1.0139739339616687,7.392857142857143,14,208,0.0673076923076923 diff --git a/results/arima/all_results.csv b/results/arima/all_results.csv index 2227d5c56b2c66959909d91a8fc775e39a44aee3..ed540bf54e6c13796da4d61779b651cb94cf7044 100644 --- a/results/arima/all_results.csv +++ b/results/arima/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ARIMA,4288716.8117795475,2087106.933103025,1270.128303584619,1.514282929626298,0.02096096235913167,0.02067989382091948,40.10527081121373,2070.9217299983957,0.03394947278614162,0.020821736356732155,0.019609989032160338,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ARIMA,4266646.138926793,2070263.5302916504,1262.2433751992023,1.504882294728497,0.020829836946752157,0.020551028094972584,39.72924541530168,2065.5861489966455,0.03385762767172577,0.020689800931012366,0.019478210227417286,Finance,1 +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ARIMA,3085295.9274389767,1261178.2008625085,909.2282619660213,1.079816684818858,0.015030394115382132,0.014878461521729294,23.931773325002737,1756.501046808392,0.028805438785165994,0.014910733522985544,0.013782304275833119,Finance,1 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ARIMA,27197.688534080287,28885.073828115153,130.26006235500384,1.3733941545973163,0.6111556523811462,1.024494621436719,15.484310582150973,164.91721721542686,1.0152918018145418,0.8019294507021014,0.723321704945088,Finance,1 -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ARIMA,0.0030161918439189704,0.001986435746210774,0.04376046482899158,0.1981606002062682,nan,2.0,1.1628244390096727,0.05491986747907328,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ARIMA,0.0020998979382727003,0.0013629189420040788,0.03645024587493286,0.1650577211295402,nan,2.0,1.3524133655467117,0.045824643351287525,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,ARIMA,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,9.078851462715541e-08,nan,nan,2.0,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ARIMA,8.335691024640184,8.581688156072028,2.2553693628305704,1.3350697847056272,0.08435399647434155,0.0905485170918288,41.93576456227324,2.8871596811815214,0.11352617145838119,0.0886835081050667,0.08558913818143538,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,ARIMA,0.08990101777482282,0.08629802271306093,0.25371435871722536,0.45520186926022776,0.6810936975440821,0.43263361557731456,17.161750085766663,0.29983498424103683,0.38233690769418255,0.32352583403534685,0.31976236913463546,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.13062628550370847,0.090050269 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,35.62495036543398,35.23355235179022,5.27348871014112,0.5306655305802385,0.27566903138510207,0.23454890076917137,3.429108511479576,5.96866403522882,0.2782053409465316,0.2458025306707099,0.20820197114143343,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,6.423409193874627,6.55319897924539,1.8771519285235598,1.29173235333922,0.0758378415130151,0.08146703472046499,30.122386054608693,2.534444553324185,0.10877445384662565,0.08056446748636861,0.07538601505986248,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,54.85258643625059,50.01470082779493,5.981608816615256,1.087565239384592,1.4102469310617634,0.5538270093171054,9.782822036224294,7.406253198227198,0.699803451800995,0.5651913842471108,0.4674755569756834,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,745.5173061130954,633.5625660081602,25.170221090135595,0.22168268116082723,0.010093367046815965,0.010131782981806033,8.753764721567793,27.304162798245535,0.010949037713582169,0.01009332174040525,0.010125203652002437,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,1463.5723886573053,623.1603741737873,24.962177493222026,0.2633372570713532,0.0101028379732856,0.010094488381432364,8.108995584914044,38.25666463058829,0.015483304403610775,0.010102736253580583,0.00979676687885208,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,4230.488832559303,3313.085661106665,42.3963140392687,0.9120868747320418,0.2211486811439915,0.18000045466466372,5.607875703765859,65.04220808489902,0.2705261180001742,0.17633642202904393,0.149374341594187,Web,1 diff --git a/results/arima/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/arima/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index 85f7c17cbe4f4f6dee83954bf0a4f1bf80ad2a1c..12fb29db8be71f52f60c7cce4d6fa005c5dbbe5f 100644 --- a/results/arima/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json +++ b/results/arima/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short", "model": 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05:55:00", + "2026-06-26 06:10:00", + "2026-06-26 06:25:00", + "2026-06-26 06:40:00" ] } diff --git a/results/arima/online_meta.json b/results/arima/online_meta.json index b65439429b7901d78b231e400ce0a562746aefc4..d52dbf8bc917552a5ffd9afc0932d4cd5be46204 100644 --- a/results/arima/online_meta.json +++ b/results/arima/online_meta.json @@ -1,54 +1,30 @@ { "model": "ARIMA", "api_model_id": "baseline/arima", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:08.962455+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.239579+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/baseline_rank_history_daily.csv b/results/baseline_rank_history_daily.csv index f41b89b436c812949288532fb64d1cf51d134e7e..3d75abe45afeb92af9f740307afbb3212b878864 100644 --- a/results/baseline_rank_history_daily.csv +++ b/results/baseline_rank_history_daily.csv @@ -16,4 +16,4 @@ date,model,MSE_Rank,CRPS_Rank,MASE_Rank,MAE_Rank,RMSE_Rank,sMAPE_Rank,MSIS_Rank, 2026-06-22,Chronos-2,4.900,4.000,4.000,4.600,4.900,4.600,2.900,4.600,5.000,4.700 2026-06-23,Chronos-2,4.500,3.400,4.500,4.500,4.500,4.500,3.800,4.500,4.500,5.000 2026-06-24,Chronos-2,4.385,4.154,4.167,4.231,4.385,3.692,4.083,4.077,4.308,4.000 -2026-06-25,Chronos-2,5.000,4.846,5.000,4.846,5.000,4.462,4.917,4.615,5.000,5.000 +2026-06-25,Chronos-2,4.857,4.714,4.769,4.643,4.857,4.357,4.692,4.500,4.857,4.833 diff --git a/results/baseline_rank_history_weekly.csv b/results/baseline_rank_history_weekly.csv index 643e3ce843bd9b5a4c489db51518202093c691ec..2a7d4843b128337033a219240941504e79ad3add 100644 --- a/results/baseline_rank_history_weekly.csv +++ b/results/baseline_rank_history_weekly.csv @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ week,model,MSE_Rank,CRPS_Rank,MASE_Rank,MAE_Rank,RMSE_Rank,sMAPE_Rank,MSIS_Rank,ND_Rank,NRMSE_Rank,MAPE_Rank 2026-W24,Chronos-Bolt-Mini,,2.751,3.064,3.077,2.902,3.077,2.505,3.077,2.918,3.103 2026-W25,Chronos-Bolt-Mini,4.967,4.229,4.414,4.414,4.414,4.529,3.857,4.486,4.429,4.529 -2026-W26,Chronos-Bolt-Mini,4.696,4.1,4.417,4.544,4.696,4.313,3.925,4.448,4.702,4.675 +2026-W26,Chronos-Bolt-Mini,4.66,4.067,4.359,4.494,4.66,4.287,3.869,4.419,4.666,4.633 diff --git a/results/chronos_2/all_results.csv b/results/chronos_2/all_results.csv index d21b637ca20c2769eefb592c6c58082bc314f711..219e7b3fa6ad0425dd771bd29818b99f206fbad9 100644 --- a/results/chronos_2/all_results.csv +++ b/results/chronos_2/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,5253118.429679871,5253118.429679871,2173.7600911458335,2.591618334805292,0.03578342849457338,0.0350821106536749,68.96773881403037,2291.968243601964,0.03757317931707924,0.03563534439228341,0.029970632419406316,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,5220163.95670255,5220163.95670255,2165.8751627604165,2.5822176999074915,0.035650151096881154,0.0349532716138353,68.59171341811833,2284.76781242702,0.03745029852522653,0.035501494275511684,0.029837514478975438,Finance,1 +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,4174100.181828817,4174100.181828817,1880.5071614583333,2.233325880646618,0.03102214331090807,0.030462579059942235,57.014751100667326,2043.0614728462815,0.03350483752761716,0.030839055873539307,0.02572902426392731,Finance,1 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-2,25067.461899718543,25067.461899718543,121.96686029434204,1.2859549577545721,0.6608019070822674,0.9393767274480805,18.969076544647905,158.32707254199624,0.9747204171363386,0.7508734105557137,0.605299940786381,Finance,1 -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-2,3.0634089551651652e-06,3.0634089551651652e-06,0.0016820643925004536,0.0076168955450092906,nan,2.0,0.03538238074962162,0.0017502596822086616,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-2,2.8833209182670897e-06,2.8833209182670897e-06,0.0016366855965720282,0.007411406652856183,nan,2.0,0.03308933377930104,0.0016980344278803919,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.6672887185900833e-18,1.6672887185900833e-18,1.1702448223423663e-09,nan,nan,2.0,nan,1.2912353459343047e-09,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-2,1.1856189730145463,1.1856189730145463,0.8935155868530273,0.528918092898918,0.03525833188695542,0.03442299537161009,2.067822221662518,1.0888613194592534,0.04281517840978692,0.035133977651108414,0.026715970972378357,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-2,0.0020237649991300213,0.0020237649991300213,0.038681729882955554,0.06940086417641576,0.07299434896839113,0.06885768831958802,0.8648473200047452,0.044986275675254796,0.05736459864379256,0.04932530813623024,0.0792405343494054,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.1047262531629561,0.104726 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,9.47388561888647,9.47388561888647,2.2836440404256186,0.2298006581560371,0.109897061608167,0.12019208431014759,2.3360524847322544,3.077967774179332,0.14346712580634802,0.1064429100242979,0.14890790386269898,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.5412219135397814,0.5412219135397814,0.5377042293548584,0.3700126447044189,0.022198121960125106,0.022577643179106894,1.550055415759968,0.7356778598950641,0.031574159834028184,0.023077436751331486,0.021280127894664817,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,51.83113015899831,51.83113015899831,6.041123986244202,1.0983861793171277,1.4735340990962376,0.5537763627864717,17.863563429225575,7.199384012469283,0.6802567570837117,0.5708148648419719,0.44154606616403175,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,606.8247084021568,606.8247084021568,20.696980794270832,0.18228533543577982,0.008289405376408376,0.008333454450663863,1.0540726239965597,24.633812299401747,0.009878220470938044,0.00829954117063492,0.006668249218242365,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,387.9540927434961,387.9540927434961,18.490549723307293,0.19506513993818683,0.007492281585485756,0.0074800259844225135,1.0318903459821427,19.69655027520038,0.007971622371076039,0.007483527712637016,0.005842943608593311,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,1001.1110222856181,1001.1110222856181,27.89371817452567,0.6000874087991426,0.12489326001936231,0.11526854675352935,3.6507019085012895,31.640338529883305,0.13159974433106544,0.11601665313231116,0.08155222254522863,Web,1 diff --git a/results/chronos_2/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/chronos_2/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index def32a8d86e37617e63c917c69aebc5fea33e3c9..b440917700d29339f66407af78ec46da96b3df57 100644 --- a/results/chronos_2/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json +++ b/results/chronos_2/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short", "model": "Chronos-2", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:52.667964+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:44.774685+00:00", "freq": "1h", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24, @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ 61712.3515625, 61739.2890625, 61269.94140625, - 61088.0 + 61277.23828125 ], "p50": [ 62891.99609375, diff --git a/results/chronos_2/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json b/results/chronos_2/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ef33de5c05f0c937f890b3e26da6c0cc1ceb421e --- /dev/null +++ b/results/chronos_2/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json @@ -0,0 +1,594 @@ +{ + "dataset": "coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short", + "model": "Chronos-2", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:24:04.974301+00:00", + "freq": "1h", + "context_length": 96, + "prediction_length": 24, + "context": [ + 63619.35546875, + 63585.73046875, + 63362.43359375, + 63894.21484375, + 64062.83203125, + 63943.04296875, + 63784.921875, + 63725.9765625, + 63853.16796875, + 63848.02734375, + 63934.58984375, + 64230.359375, + 64240.234375, + 64217.2421875, + 64191.1875, + 64186.6015625, + 64362.421875, + 64210.078125, + 64182.55078125, + 64221.921875, 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"2026-06-25T11:09:00.893949+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:24:19.438450+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv b/results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv index aa3f79b646fbe4e463485f8f1fb55f4f927e3513..0d79c83a2db27df57f86fd4d0c784968bb1fe795 100644 --- a/results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv +++ b/results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates 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nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,2.330019019556554,2.330019019556554,1.258512020111084,0.7449783611631733,0.04913755283421481,0.047475144585149044,3.2157437592025495,1.5264399822975532,0.06002123411488068,0.04948602334287787,0.03200986638884384,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.28473202494812694,0.28473202494812694,0.4318315051496029,0.7747709248440391,1.3203819502527632,0.5908776011737787,7.196481622193045,0.5336028719451639,0.6804278443780285,0.5506532959846204,0.3542224423936046,Ocean,1 @@ -9,4 +10,4 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.10190249281780932,0.10 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,16.333494220448,16.333494220448,3.624711354573568,0.3647508281331892,0.18716646049087401,0.16744428333394754,3.1922379339765956,4.041471788896713,0.18837700200907598,0.16895138548257127,0.19116723785789513,Air Quality,1 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fb7412347be4ff0b1aff77fb4630271acef8a7ce..ec3d39c370492140f0c1f51b2eba8a328cece10e 100644 --- a/results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json +++ b/results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json @@ -1,54 +1,30 @@ { "model": "Chronos-Bolt", "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-bolt-base", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:09:57.871843+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:24:45.492364+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/dataset_eval_intervals.json b/results/dataset_eval_intervals.json index 98396e660e14a951cbac7275c771d5855c9ca6c4..d74018410ed9e20341769ae9e8718691715ba6cd 100644 --- a/results/dataset_eval_intervals.json +++ b/results/dataset_eval_intervals.json @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ { "binance_btcusdt_1h_close": 60, + "coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd": 300, "data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd": 2592000, "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total": 900, "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count": 300, diff --git a/results/ets/all_results.csv b/results/ets/all_results.csv index 88c4330d6e80bcf68e706f35d04ffe33556a60e9..14bccc4ae6a292577759b96b2679ed95f866d212 100644 --- a/results/ets/all_results.csv +++ b/results/ets/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates 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data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ETS,27619.336324418462,28734.51642651467,129.964918000045,1.370282306464171,0.618770085277974,1.0227875260688906,19.0701060641571,166.19066256687967,1.0231316056095572,0.8001124321457544,0.7242860136139402,Finance,1 -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ETS,0.0018012975947420838,3.307986376712628e-10,1.5914441964476952e-05,7.206539930396913e-05,nan,2.0,0.0028826159721587643,0.04244169641687386,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ETS,0.0017408096306309748,0.00012419135300810246,0.009583268714017877,0.043395934840473105,nan,2.0,1.7358373936189246,0.04172301080496199,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,ETS,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,9.078851462715541e-08,nan,nan,2.0,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ETS,30.527406870526534,31.942755022176083,4.926820607136346,2.9164399568670114,0.19044171099349783,0.21738879404682765,72.91734007868459,5.525161252898103,0.21725518260043816,0.1937277957419913,0.17965724779315478,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,ETS,0.01604538247393401,0.016541170800821545,0.10796751867372348,0.1937100311080295,0.2423464757209711,0.2689782499462188,5.038744402853879,0.1266703693605336,0.16152470479846656,0.13767561955992585,0.12688047380304754,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,0.09463948320424327,0.10477715991 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,16.42268927656608,16.34760292954044,3.6722998579435373,0.36953960834651944,0.17436435361376532,0.1683194828262853,2.1567275409673,4.052491736767156,0.1888906526914421,0.17116953274752617,0.1287996027244683,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,76.9150651342466,78.38930313757042,7.260487619523233,4.9961895021111005,0.29948470502813035,0.3846289016600015,155.3466917297192,8.770123438940104,0.3764001804604391,0.31160893791816485,0.2980429179392504,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,50.78274464229952,51.1233434559846,6.125441213158854,1.1137165842107004,1.4446377356234048,0.5620803532162212,9.996191578198108,7.126201277139141,0.6733418529580291,0.5787818469126476,0.4557386957509684,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,770.7570232142202,672.9478372310277,21.613533914306647,0.19035772988747138,0.008652411999775704,0.008704309310092431,7.6693550592494075,27.76251111146505,0.011132836535925833,0.008667081268894896,0.008685646199740528,Hydrology,1 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"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.134626+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.358825+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/eval_history.jsonl b/results/eval_history.jsonl index 82edc46e32ed4061117498fc0cc94f673cbc904d..5c9680589e4f7359eed08e8d9a01c2933f743e09 100644 --- a/results/eval_history.jsonl +++ b/results/eval_history.jsonl @@ -2518,3 +2518,7 @@ {"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:16.002365+00:00", "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5", "prediction_length": 24} {"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:16.002365+00:00", "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m", "prediction_length": 24} {"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:16.002365+00:00", "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count", "prediction_length": 24} +{"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:19.143181+00:00", "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close", "prediction_length": 24} +{"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:19.143181+00:00", "dataset": "coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd", "prediction_length": 24} +{"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:19.143181+00:00", "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total", "prediction_length": 36} +{"evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:19.143181+00:00", "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060", "prediction_length": 24} diff --git a/results/moirai_1_1_large/all_results.csv b/results/moirai_1_1_large/all_results.csv index 4d04f42b6b851b800dc6438b166a728e21e5a033..e0e5f1df831d27104594a1197cc32092064f365c 100644 --- a/results/moirai_1_1_large/all_results.csv +++ b/results/moirai_1_1_large/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,4753382.500229518,4359529.147507668,1959.9091796875,2.3366592225703724,0.03227885641923974,0.03169487231361508,62.702831270586024,2180.2253324437634,0.035741331755456275,0.03212959833067253,0.02709082963713126,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,4678017.537115097,4255638.861475308,1936.1429036458333,2.3083243952863,0.031883914437854495,0.031313790061568376,63.2277414168552,2162.8725198483376,0.03545227707593,0.03173588551740482,0.02701195766518895,Finance,1 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+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.0265037806147855,6.470778632014507e-08,0.00022687607755263647,0.0010273633946979784,nan,2.0,0.03542001742869845,0.16279981761287543,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,4.171477185082666,2.240296164185323e-18,1.2239412781889225e-09,nan,nan,2.0,nan,2.0424194439641106,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.92404147853343,0.9438012980857972,0.710768461227417,0.4207406166569105,0.028265745239412127,0.02753267060143479,2.157257094683988,0.9612707623419272,0.03779818279358177,0.027948167440289325,0.0236970588139217,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.19678857406361766,0.17334114920622187,0.33173046335577966,0.5951745410610075,1.0258703131832483,0.515309294046819,5.86470650622047,0.4436085820445967,0.5656709270095869,0.4230086754834668,0.2829487668867281,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.23894559149133934, open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,20.873188695296903,28.159304152669126,3.9699968099594116,0.3994965343355383,0.1631645562571148,0.1853968912882573,2.4431852624601285,4.5687184959567055,0.21295249311308112,0.18504548246516586,0.2002755485001152,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,0.18636188055340122,0.23204292247381395,0.42123643557230633,0.2898671780189957,0.017899844698806996,0.01791741398803408,1.7147896388640784,0.43169651440960377,0.018527749017356463,0.01807881855595523,0.01819565992831352,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,54.13048254214308,54.917534189603536,6.2316619753837585,1.1330294500697742,1.4611542117677938,0.5663728802139777,16.4482676115903,7.357342084077855,0.6951819292042067,0.5888184543669693,0.43981570317259194,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,271.65771898378927,262.099310045441,13.245524088541666,0.11665782683486237,0.005326987960711629,0.005330733405766931,1.0556499964162842,16.48204231834724,0.006609340278033981,0.0053114883563074354,0.007351450412417037,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,3803.3571918706098,1719.7265608608723,32.13097127278646,0.33896409254807686,0.013110750325520832,0.012969073723030097,11.10269536615728,61.67136443983228,0.02495974277497428,0.01300410304463533,0.012631346238157556,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-1.1-Large,1540.7525197592165,1003.6973608544379,28.88893018450056,0.6214977561947449,0.12603119703032611,0.11725669685037833,5.406564706864626,39.252420559237066,0.16326021622974418,0.12015597818865353,0.08456991629733686,Web,1 diff --git a/results/moirai_1_1_large/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/moirai_1_1_large/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index ab1cc3105787d8e375b5b20f7f636c37c438c172..b46207ccb0609980adc7cf3fe6c6b2931063e3aa 100644 --- a/results/moirai_1_1_large/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json +++ b/results/moirai_1_1_large/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short", "model": "Moirai-1.1-Large", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:14:47.969529+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:27:16.062731+00:00", "freq": "1h", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24, @@ -127,346 +127,346 @@ 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data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Moving-Average,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,9.078851462715541e-08,nan,nan,2.0,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moving-Average,4.25198316917136,3.941593385544353,1.7793914960984563,1.0533138654600285,0.0716357085338421,0.06932483526954926,15.91323288213343,2.0620337458856874,0.08108134721962701,0.06996755510072467,0.06256216465124885,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Moving-Average,1.499918023302025,1.507899985934023,1.1209624850714637,2.0111759584873563,2.9644461384101697,0.9292222694235743,76.70909509494125,1.2247114040875202,1.5617002540310494,1.4294040145724647,1.415225955750471,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.10521049571194403,0. open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,36.12842537100983,36.679952636957296,4.408074357220983,0.4435798095316712,0.17770702791186935,0.20885830359268454,4.502297374293442,6.01069258663341,0.2801643333448287,0.20546471073426936,0.1753996506845113,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,2.8502927585003484,2.9589005525945473,1.5125000874201457,1.0408029673366308,0.06340896413211607,0.0647634300117345,7.297902333235345,1.6882810069713952,0.07245841864328005,0.06491417251023038,0.05490383988545696,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,56.80012024405503,57.28550234859622,6.5536427145708585,1.191571402649247,1.5525500138942372,0.5850422134743044,10.97329036884866,7.5365854499272436,0.7121183102293458,0.6192418312980339,0.48612412969336916,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,888.0759103768909,1008.1327908587167,27.10526315789457,0.2387252535007228,0.010914406552094455,0.010832557444071758,9.297923700544315,29.800602517011143,0.011950116297548328,0.010869278459306093,0.01081040808649297,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,1467.4107513857743,1585.5724838411716,31.271929824561237,0.3299016772700966,0.012756892230576375,0.012626210439917107,13.196067090803863,38.306797717712904,0.015503594354554968,0.01265643028312765,0.01265643028312765,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moving-Average,2939.880639620202,2733.4448974199267,37.13136288998358,0.7988201215204181,0.19458040764624043,0.16100435132929286,11.054596462757402,54.22066616724846,0.22551673391012433,0.15443822948893943,0.1410236995452231,Web,1 diff --git a/results/moving_average/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/moving_average/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index b7dca447f6e5697458755be3f032855a19df3771..b9872fba6753f90da5459f49c6433c884f12d578 100644 --- a/results/moving_average/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json +++ b/results/moving_average/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short", "model": "Moving-Average", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.140801+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.363432+00:00", "freq": "1h", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24, @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ 61712.3515625, 61739.2890625, 61269.94140625, - 61088.0 + 61277.23828125 ], "p50": [ 62617.83038993969, diff --git a/results/moving_average/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json b/results/moving_average/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json new file mode 100644 index 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"data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -178,54 +106,30 @@ "Toto-2.0-1B": { "model": "Toto-2.0-1B", "api_model_id": "Datadog/Toto-2.0-1B", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:12:51.192065+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:26:19.588845+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": 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"2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -234,54 +138,30 @@ "TiRex": { "model": "TiRex", "api_model_id": "NX-AI/TiRex-1.1-gifteval", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:14:19.400879+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:26:48.510611+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": 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"dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -290,54 +170,30 @@ "Moirai-1.1-Large": { "model": "Moirai-1.1-Large", "api_model_id": "Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:15:42.620940+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:27:37.185757+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": 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"data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -402,54 +234,30 @@ "ARIMA": { "model": "ARIMA", "api_model_id": "baseline/arima", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:08.962455+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.239579+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -458,54 +266,30 @@ "ETS": { "model": "ETS", "api_model_id": "baseline/ets", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.134626+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.358825+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -514,54 +298,30 @@ "Moving-Average": { "model": "Moving-Average", "api_model_id": "baseline/moving-average", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.267803+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.391513+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -570,54 +330,30 @@ "Seasonal-Naive": { "model": "Seasonal-Naive", "api_model_id": "baseline/seasonal-naive", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.396076+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.419914+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], @@ -642,7 +378,5 @@ "live_overall": "aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv", "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json" }, - "push_status": "ok", - "pushed_at": "2026-06-25T11:19:53.947391+00:00", - "push_detail": "HF Hub API" + "push_status": "pending" } diff --git a/results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv b/results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv index 9231a8baa7fbb01f5e6bbd1772ac312a58111743..439269b74a3f88bbbc6b4b8fe8aad3c272e5e648 100644 --- a/results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv +++ b/results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,3128504.019850413,3128504.019850413,1650.1451822916667,1.9673498133197622,0.027179604518871817,0.026760670784563508,12.464942189707239,1768.7577617781392,0.028995974415126843,0.027051509551467713,0.02070676176498623,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,3101086.9842357635,3101086.9842357635,1642.26025390625,1.9579491784219611,0.027047066766886035,0.026631820701950318,12.464942189707239,1760.9903418916765,0.02886490856759239,0.026918768914015376,0.020574841199982447,Finance,1 bitbrains_fast_storage/5T/long,Seasonal-Naive,3499892.2950397297,3499892.2950397297,289.35216809290046,1.190359880620704,1.795788841111804,0.5099463825492213,231.56717491055915,1870.7999078040737,4.9439656728737384,0.7646714009634807,2.122607238439539,Web/CloudOps,2,96.0 bitbrains_fast_storage/5T/medium,Seasonal-Naive,3704568.4175853366,3704568.4175853366,280.36127147074325,1.271487396616441,4.117625747562423,0.4499728768046956,196.7313435217375,1924.7255434438791,5.847847822156081,0.8518149802561188,2.0491239073790615,Web/CloudOps,2,48.0 bitbrains_fast_storage/5T/short,Seasonal-Naive,2299344.812804004,2299344.812804004,173.28187846869332,1.0948146284753992,2.4327068429200516,0.374655124365134,70.19326241539363,1516.3590646031053,4.760992442912181,0.5440622430011399,0.8929464680662709,Web/CloudOps,2,24.0 @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ bizitobs_service/10S/long,Seasonal-Naive,209141.5703703704,209141.5703703704,126 bizitobs_service/10S/medium,Seasonal-Naive,120879.21777777778,120879.21777777778,96.6510615079365,3.7066999349383662,0.1335696265811012,0.13655030265687,61.109367709322896,347.67688703417974,0.2616698182259184,0.0727418664837433,0.0952617889651194,Web/CloudOps,2,48.0 bizitobs_service/10S/short,Seasonal-Naive,24411.641058201058,24411.641058201058,51.05920717592593,2.18868692523134,0.2901955369414475,0.0944603386127128,26.76123260084578,156.2422511941026,0.1157492580266197,0.0378262941097712,0.0365962225066831,Web/CloudOps,2,24.0 car_parts/M/short,Seasonal-Naive,2.9952172180151453,2.9952172180151453,0.6895841636774279,1.2125433213650758,0.8496029665824577,1.6621891716563262,25.79123698119671,1.730669586609514,4.149968135842565,1.6535520866518,2.4999765507853837,Sales,1,24.0 +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,3087033.316923777,3087033.316923777,1612.9326171875,1.9155492898577524,0.026609692107947825,0.02619604624855823,13.005495065782197,1756.995536967518,0.02881354809203743,0.026451012855024124,0.020372902460676613,Finance,1 covid_deaths/D/short,Seasonal-Naive,4435194.482205514,4435194.482205514,353.7093984962406,46.91239825526407,0.132724402667158,0.1778110471170298,1472.7784117419058,2105.990142950701,0.792389040211866,0.133084882532099,0.1267232783122367,Healthcare,1,24.0 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Seasonal-Naive,36436.1429036395,36436.1429036395,152.79166432221731,1.6109556133900285,0.8264244641534466,1.5187046461435552,64.32233589831223,190.88253692687425,1.1751439790441005,0.9406423828344558,0.9402466648974208,Finance,1,12.0 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,Climate,1 @@ -107,5 +108,5 @@ us_births/D/short,Seasonal-Naive,2855120.2133333334,2855120.2133333334,1266.88,1 us_births/M/short,Seasonal-Naive,261017514.66666663,261017514.66666663,13253.958333333334,1.49946000119159,0.0408529390891393,0.0412912964820861,18.13215937344219,16156.036477634812,0.0501805391490685,0.041166704218987,0.0390285878524347,Healthcare,1,24.0 us_births/W/short,Seasonal-Naive,5288246.857142857,5288246.857142857,1720.321428571429,1.5634204337929731,0.0231743242059435,0.0232296798910413,13.279190377688378,2299.6188504060533,0.0312171004064565,0.0233531947077275,0.0192967961329171,Healthcare,1,24.0 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,73.33333333333333,73.33333333333333,7.25,1.3181818181818181,1.528824604498624,0.6287445650197757,49.772727473242696,8.563488385776752,0.8091485088922915,0.6850393700787402,0.676334208223972,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,1250.0,1250.0,25.0,0.2201834862385321,0.010051020408163266,0.009950995099509951,1.3310090929017668,35.35533905932738,0.014177579572662607,0.010025062656641603,0.008894458368142554,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,1458.3333333333333,1458.3333333333333,29.166666666666668,0.3076923076923077,0.011904761904761904,0.011784511784511786,1.582417485630218,38.18813079129867,0.015455567267979224,0.011804384485666104,0.009743301480232315,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,11471.57142857143,11471.57142857143,89.85714285714286,1.933128444256041,0.4399698527878507,0.3452857979197016,70.30391736803551,107.10542203162,0.4454770969823767,0.3737373737373737,0.3657991681521093,Web,1,7.0 diff --git a/results/seasonal_naive/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/seasonal_naive/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index 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- 2511.75, - 2511.75, 2462.5, - 2511.75, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, + 2462.5, 2462.5, 2462.5, 2462.5, @@ -287,17 +287,17 @@ 2462.5 ], "0.3": [ - 2524.5, - 2524.5, - 2524.5, - 2524.5, 2475.0, - 2524.5, - 2524.5, - 2524.5, - 2524.5, 2475.0, - 2524.5, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, + 2475.0, 2475.0, 2475.0, 2475.0, @@ -313,17 +313,17 @@ 2475.0 ], "0.4": [ - 2537.25, - 2537.25, - 2537.25, - 2537.25, 2487.5, - 2537.25, - 2537.25, - 2537.25, - 2537.25, 2487.5, - 2537.25, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, + 2487.5, 2487.5, 2487.5, 2487.5, @@ -339,17 +339,17 @@ 2487.5 ], "0.5": [ - 2550.0, - 2550.0, - 2550.0, - 2550.0, 2500.0, - 2550.0, - 2550.0, - 2550.0, - 2550.0, 2500.0, - 2550.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, + 2500.0, 2500.0, 2500.0, 2500.0, @@ -365,17 +365,17 @@ 2500.0 ], "0.6": [ - 2562.7499999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, 2512.4999999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, 2512.4999999999995, - 2562.7499999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, + 2512.4999999999995, 2512.4999999999995, 2512.4999999999995, 2512.4999999999995, @@ -391,17 +391,17 @@ 2512.4999999999995 ], "0.7": [ - 2575.5, - 2575.5, - 2575.5, - 2575.5, 2525.0, - 2575.5, - 2575.5, - 2575.5, - 2575.5, 2525.0, - 2575.5, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, + 2525.0, 2525.0, 2525.0, 2525.0, @@ -417,17 +417,17 @@ 2525.0 ], "0.8": [ - 2588.2499999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, 2537.4999999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, 2537.4999999999995, - 2588.2499999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, + 2537.4999999999995, 2537.4999999999995, 2537.4999999999995, 2537.4999999999995, @@ -443,17 +443,17 @@ 2537.4999999999995 ], "0.9": [ - 2601.0, - 2601.0, - 2601.0, - 2601.0, 2550.0, - 2601.0, - 2601.0, - 2601.0, - 2601.0, 2550.0, - 2601.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, + 2550.0, 2550.0, 2550.0, 2550.0, @@ -470,10 +470,6 @@ ] }, "timestamps": [ - "2026-06-24 23:55:00", - "2026-06-25 00:10:00", - "2026-06-25 00:25:00", - "2026-06-25 00:40:00", "2026-06-25 00:55:00", "2026-06-25 01:10:00", "2026-06-25 01:25:00", @@ -589,6 +585,10 @@ "2026-06-26 04:55:00", "2026-06-26 05:10:00", "2026-06-26 05:25:00", - "2026-06-26 05:40:00" + "2026-06-26 05:40:00", + "2026-06-26 05:55:00", + "2026-06-26 06:10:00", + "2026-06-26 06:25:00", + "2026-06-26 06:40:00" ] } diff --git a/results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json b/results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json index d42231be6fe0a66d495c82309529a67995946983..258f08aa250bfe72359663a27f766571115a11dc 100644 --- a/results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json +++ b/results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json @@ -1,54 +1,30 @@ { "model": "Seasonal-Naive", "api_model_id": "baseline/seasonal-naive", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:09.396076+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:12.419914+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/timer_s1/all_results.csv b/results/timer_s1/all_results.csv index 29251da29244f9f34560383e879ec050f97e7eb6..0cae083778c18573a1242d44e1d71d5938725e43 100644 --- a/results/timer_s1/all_results.csv +++ b/results/timer_s1/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Timer-S1,9345200.50517718,9345200.50517718,2961.3416341145835,3.530595352198294,0.04868920385050105,0.04745405235841397,110.87190434282358,3056.9920682228108,0.050114529933326595,0.04854649297533765,0.04338184783549758,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Timer-S1,9296338.743591309,9296338.743591309,2953.4567057291665,3.5211947173004936,0.04855380168697401,0.04732525558424542,110.49587894691155,3048.989790666953,0.04997688484570799,0.048410974064535255,0.04324699646631043,Finance,1 +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Timer-S1,8137609.908329646,8137609.908329646,2694.8878580729165,3.200499802514541,0.04438931189819537,0.04330897872530293,94.10151461360181,2852.649629437454,0.04678154016793522,0.04419435295507369,0.038323326693787824,Finance,1 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Timer-S1,13950.63562508625,13950.63562508625,96.28801806767781,1.0152106392480131,0.9524471402012793,0.6887843358403999,5.043297170844735,118.11280889508238,0.7271464349523795,0.5927848954022913,0.46164882740821384,Finance,1 -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Timer-S1,6.117013981565833e-06,6.117013981565833e-06,0.002102322048611111,0.009519949127771848,nan,2.0,0.24869235653409077,0.0024732597885312882,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Timer-S1,7.527080015279353e-06,7.527080015279353e-06,0.002434412638346354,0.011023755607935002,nan,2.0,0.26656529328364953,0.002743552444419343,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Timer-S1,1.6921410017962076e-16,1.6921410017962076e-16,1.1072870620409958e-08,nan,nan,2.0,nan,1.3008232015905189e-08,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Timer-S1,0.1809189648353519,0.1809189648353519,0.34255631764729816,0.2027768031206014,0.013349505751967588,0.013266036971946643,2.3346111740295745,0.42534570038423086,0.016725042686639494,0.013469676618462665,0.020975628314107042,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Timer-S1,0.004867817115647799,0.004867817115647799,0.05726477925976117,0.10274166071487642,0.16465493863078712,0.13832334011603858,0.8244416213147142,0.06976974355440758,0.0889674300973628,0.07302162780433302,0.05963915817660158,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Timer-S1,0.10773670196495762,0.107736 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Timer-S1,15.580301602788344,15.580301602788344,3.5189395745595298,0.3541071269997011,0.16136366189258966,0.17575008023217872,2.4893130896226414,3.947189076138657,0.18398239140720563,0.16402125807924542,0.1888588667840771,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Timer-S1,0.24971489027484495,0.24971489027484495,0.36319271723429364,0.24992531303404922,0.015113950325762411,0.01492403801449104,2.052243351791511,0.49971480894090475,0.021446989380897695,0.015587671628647756,0.017728364437156315,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Timer-S1,49.703306633887074,49.703306633887074,5.896382888158162,1.0720696160287568,1.409868183972027,0.5475890382502185,17.372003728693183,7.050057207844988,0.6661471377491327,0.5571385406133696,0.432379500488388,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Timer-S1,287.83224868774414,287.83224868774414,8.6220703125,0.07593749999999999,0.0034970583545918363,0.003474701598698589,1.6098724197247707,16.96561960812938,0.006803255983209777,0.003457471804511278,0.004324139341409078,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Timer-S1,1281.9746143420537,1281.9746143420537,28.214152018229168,0.297643801510989,0.011508658189838436,0.0114032254095009,8.795234267685439,35.80467307967011,0.014490930082834445,0.011418881086635751,0.010812146208807617,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Timer-S1,1379.7876065884318,1379.7876065884318,33.233712332589285,0.7149685887574846,0.15545419688454107,0.14048852149805555,2.9612040339813945,37.145492412787206,0.15449699755764137,0.13822696751522578,0.09044210648406037,Web,1 diff --git a/results/timer_s1/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/timer_s1/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index 240621639ae91b38d4e1e46b152bd8633f2894fc..203712c6faef4475f1ccd47fe2edbb7c2f145d12 100644 --- a/results/timer_s1/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json +++ b/results/timer_s1/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short", "model": "Timer-S1", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:16:01.683237+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:27:53.005520+00:00", "freq": "1h", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24, @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ 61712.3515625, 61739.2890625, 61269.94140625, - 61088.0 + 61277.23828125 ], "p50": [ 63131.578125, diff --git a/results/timer_s1/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json b/results/timer_s1/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9e27dbc326a1146bc6ac22474c4e59121a505c3d --- /dev/null +++ b/results/timer_s1/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json @@ -0,0 +1,594 @@ +{ + "dataset": "coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short", + "model": "Timer-S1", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:27:58.075713+00:00", + "freq": "1h", + "context_length": 96, + "prediction_length": 24, + "context": [ + 63619.35546875, + 63585.73046875, + 63362.43359375, + 63894.21484375, + 64062.83203125, + 63943.04296875, + 63784.921875, + 63725.9765625, + 63853.16796875, + 63848.02734375, + 63934.58984375, + 64230.359375, + 64240.234375, + 64217.2421875, + 64191.1875, + 64186.6015625, + 64362.421875, + 64210.078125, + 64182.55078125, + 64221.921875, + 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4d27e094bc0da8004f2336d84fc20857c9f17709..1446acf5e8ad555d43e1b0e6b366003d92699f6e 100644 --- a/results/timer_s1/online_meta.json +++ b/results/timer_s1/online_meta.json @@ -1,54 +1,30 @@ { "model": "Timer-S1", "api_model_id": "bytedance-research/Timer-S1", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:17:08.292130+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:11.857409+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - 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"2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv b/results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv index 9723501b5d58195ebee43a291c8cc4ca6da575fb..0ccad79de007299ec8c7a2171f8b826f4fdcfb3e 100644 --- a/results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv +++ b/results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,3646028.9734745026,3261453.666475296,1647.69580078125,1.9644295913241587,0.02716406721214662,0.02672504770674892,87.75302743328224,1909.4577694922982,0.03130252758597288,0.027011355831640344,0.02917918976757387,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,3621573.529281616,3239028.7145436606,1639.8108723958333,1.9550289564263579,0.027032196261971963,0.02659618933855287,87.37700203737022,1903.043228432191,0.03119333904458745,0.026878620384143608,0.02904617412282679,Finance,1 +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,3102446.0003414154,2773972.7213872275,1491.3727213541667,1.7711824578788964,0.024627265799957415,0.02425476981543209,79.14942800092525,1761.376166621263,0.02888538747952924,0.024457512114150263,0.02646217594147429,Finance,1 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TimesFM-2.5,28434.715767887308,30940.314541637516,136.81071631113687,1.4424608331286375,0.6894371389934627,1.1431172573156296,43.032391046456816,168.6259640977252,1.0381242287022936,0.8422577158188848,0.7508176845882389,Finance,1 -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,8.674242972578003e-07,2.2371664337447133e-07,0.000266935055454572,0.0012087625442663839,nan,2.0,0.6726662608158817,0.0009313561602619056,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.24979544596878e-06,3.3150057214249464e-07,0.0003235080900291602,0.001464942329618282,nan,2.0,0.6564290426105293,0.001117942505663319,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,nan,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.8684622986591725,0.38677450845276934,0.5371975104014078,0.3179949929158829,0.021395996088360056,0.021276197062737267,14.990329351376266,0.9319132463159714,0.03664381422170184,0.021123174125197073,0.027442996147764274,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.004513455644363577,0.01054098863653539,0.08638663912812869,0.15499067458795407,0.25202282714574015,0.34846368941824385,0.22951973161050096,0.06718225691626903,0.08566797642476993,0.1101565934807334,0.06687814254011491,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.10181217790405601,0.098 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,5.8150675166311885,15.923192544244065,3.586079796155294,0.3608633757137403,0.16461321267110784,0.18196059820540944,6.680074159954079,2.4114451096036147,0.11239984440930265,0.16715073029112193,0.145945933039823,Air Quality,1 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.17840418951224515,0.27890705284532186,0.38742343584696454,0.2665992980754539,0.016106521344456382,0.016288040162530323,7.836744367641941,0.4223792010886014,0.018127864290550886,0.016627616724289158,0.017019077326339758,Weather,1 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,51.313944934316545,44.85717756604466,5.423114697138469,0.9860208540251761,1.2916935958893296,0.5186002829293214,41.667020082473755,7.163375247347897,0.6768543540801162,0.5124202863437923,0.557182045516901,Hazards,1 -usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,225.198168973128,249.99119301637015,13.043050130208334,0.11487456995412844,0.005248249329028486,0.005248907191384431,2.3088756988245414,15.006604178598435,0.006017685886154761,0.005230295791562239,0.004272840666481018,Hydrology,1 +usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1279.2763174846768,1116.8245335246127,26.678843180338543,0.2814471368475275,0.0108790245834662,0.010787666145193673,12.817490878262362,35.76697243945421,0.014475671813607097,0.010797508201148819,0.011852880960013818,Hydrology,1 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,1045.3113076725774,641.6984261012569,22.998742239815847,0.49478006302274447,0.09971961250749792,0.0942809443810055,24.8573770527114,32.33127445172209,0.13447351227691898,0.09565727610143253,0.11751919688033831,Web,1 diff --git a/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json b/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json index 52a59c211d11cb19662aa7bf3e6481a43a2981aa..c29eea2e4729300eaccfd7d2fdff7bd58846914b 100644 --- a/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json +++ b/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/binance_btcusdt_1h_close__1h__short.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short", "model": "TimesFM-2.5", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:10:19.663998+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:25:07.304589+00:00", "freq": "1h", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24, @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ 61712.3515625, 61739.2890625, 61269.94140625, - 61088.0 + 61277.23828125 ], "p50": [ 62775.02734375, diff --git a/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json b/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8de4a1fe19b3a275e11da33315cb98c3dc1de660 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/timesfm_2_5/forecasts/coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd__1h__short.json 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"2026-06-25 00:55:00", "2026-06-25 01:10:00", "2026-06-25 01:25:00", @@ -589,6 +585,10 @@ "2026-06-26 04:55:00", "2026-06-26 05:10:00", "2026-06-26 05:25:00", - "2026-06-26 05:40:00" + "2026-06-26 05:40:00", + "2026-06-26 05:55:00", + "2026-06-26 06:10:00", + "2026-06-26 06:25:00", + "2026-06-26 06:40:00" ] } diff --git a/results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json b/results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json index 998f913e19ce8173fee4b4e1c164d3bc7f694192..baa21a2d02c3152a03640b8989acd80cf24d2f7e 100644 --- a/results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json +++ b/results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json @@ -1,54 +1,30 @@ { "model": "TimesFM-2.5", "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:11:21.033983+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:25:39.706218+00:00", "datasets": [ { "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 168, + "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260625t085000z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 } ], diff --git a/results/tirex/all_results.csv b/results/tirex/all_results.csv index f5699ae62c094c29f9ef3f172a096566dd82876f..ed62c46815742edd5abdd3c8dc205713f6911ed5 100644 --- a/results/tirex/all_results.csv +++ b/results/tirex/all_results.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates -binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TiRex,4475765.148295085,4475765.148295085,1986.021484375,2.36779105163826,0.032708841662491224,0.032109477898750204,54.68186882823594,2115.600422644854,0.03468190899469041,0.03255766809522728,0.02600656011119742,Finance,1 +binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TiRex,4446505.318675359,4446505.318675359,1978.1365559895833,2.3583904167404586,0.032576057765116434,0.03198063127630945,54.30584343232391,2108.6738293712847,0.034563890463075085,0.03242421577480959,0.025873954535732564,Finance,1 +coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TiRex,3138605.068061193,3138605.068061193,1599.5480143229167,1.899653482283976,0.026407447350572186,0.02598538579067912,39.59724841222335,1771.6108681257272,0.02905322971805621,0.026231514347363073,0.02035294622156989,Finance,1 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TiRex,26189.183511279563,26189.183511279563,125.3613642056783,1.321744836442649,0.6820653407770266,0.984424218821475,18.101060665387852,161.83072486792972,0.9962902055610486,0.7717712406949717,0.6145704862690891,Finance,1 -data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TiRex,1.005721554030941e-07,1.005721554030941e-07,0.0002544671297073364,0.0011523040112262463,nan,2.0,0.012636453966199621,0.00031713113281905026,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 +data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TiRex,2.7718223908716294e-07,2.7718223908716294e-07,0.0004603030780951182,0.0020843913470428117,nan,2.0,0.011422191112678842,0.0005264809959411289,inf,inf,inf,Climate,1 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TiRex,3.019724614132025e-17,3.019724614132025e-17,4.219583215244367e-09,nan,nan,2.0,nan,5.495202101954053e-09,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TiRex,1.462004321092536,1.462004321092536,0.966461181640625,0.5720983635602509,0.03786350866947919,0.03679879705755742,2.333051897454871,1.2091337068713848,0.04754441585517504,0.03800227556859715,0.02926528884734724,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TiRex,0.00830505636104365,0.00830505636104365,0.07706899469097456,0.13827341354549985,0.2252651601842693,0.18558479638846082,1.3083513800073459,0.09113208195275498,0.11620778173616593,0.0982751268463011,0.13217135518381495,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.09953024910551751,0.099530249 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,11.805005825177696,11.805005825177696,2.9656004508336387,0.2984252025996114,0.1374728352288619,0.14931140163284512,2.5758504727601506,3.4358413562296057,0.1601479678377317,0.13822957359732352,0.177941184053526,Air Quality,1 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"task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260625t055500z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 62, - "prediction_length": 12 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260620t230000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260625t050000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 240, - "prediction_length": 60 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260624t122000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 75, - "prediction_length": 72 - }, - { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, + "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260624t110106z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24 }, { - "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260624t110000z", - "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:07:25.831601Z", - "context_length": 336, - "prediction_length": 24 + "dataset": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_data_gov_sg_rainfall_station_s213_rainfall_5min_total_20260625t081500z", + "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-25T11:23:15.259457Z", + "context_length": 288, + "prediction_length": 36 }, { - "dataset": 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data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-2.0-1B,5.9008933951912e-20,5.9008933951912e-20,2.042280968182301e-10,nan,nan,2.0,nan,2.429175455826771e-10,inf,inf,inf,Transportation,1 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Toto-2.0-1B,1.160640176702297,1.160640176702297,0.9090020656585693,0.5380853407411139,0.03583214464901586,0.03502499847379089,2.715182201061547,1.0773301150076038,0.04236175925800523,0.03574292237267126,0.02982802038720754,Weather,1 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0023299390466993476,0.0023299390466993476,0.036455454180637996,0.06540658940888848,0.11630271646831174,0.1363446596185413,1.076354584206912,0.048269442162711465,0.06155115387662102,0.04648645539243394,0.0995397856922202,Ocean,1 @@ -10,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-2.0-1B,0.10431595642402651,0.104 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a/results/toto_2_0_1b/forecasts/usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060__15min__short.json +++ b/results/toto_2_0_1b/forecasts/usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060__15min__short.json @@ -1,23 +1,11 @@ { "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short", "model": "Toto-2.0-1B", - "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:00:29.704814+00:00", + "evaluated_at": "2026-06-25T11:26:17.115503+00:00", "freq": "15min", "context_length": 96, "prediction_length": 24, "context": [ - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, - 2700.0, 2700.0, 2700.0, 2700.0, @@ -101,9 +89,6 @@ 2500.0, 2500.0, 2500.0, - 2500.0 - ], - "actuals": [ 2500.0, 2500.0, 2500.0, @@ -116,6 +101,9 @@ 2500.0, 2500.0, 2500.0, + 2500.0 + ], + "actuals": [ 2500.0, 2500.0, 2450.0, @@ -127,353 +115,361 @@ 2500.0, 2500.0, 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2500.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, + 2450.0, 2450.0 ], "p50": [ - 2499.853271484375, - 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