diff --git a/src/utils.py b/src/utils.py index ffbe5d1a4b5275465a0f945b90a3f1a37844b40c..3c2ffd371a5f83e5c671d8cd63316c1f36dd658b 100644 --- a/src/utils.py +++ b/src/utils.py @@ -71,6 +71,12 @@ MODEL_CONFIG = { ), "citras-fm": ("hitachi-nlp/citras-fm", "Hitachi", True, "pretrained", "CITRAS-FM"), "ts-icl": ("taharnbl/TS-ICL", "EDF-Lab", True, "pretrained", "TS-ICL"), + "t0-beta": ( + "theforecastingcompany/t0-beta", + "The Forecasting Company", + True, + "pretrained", + ), # GluonTS Models "deepar": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), "tft": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 0552a30a83af733237fd5da7fb386d5367a9e835..a4176af18a5a6954a6a82e247587adf0e4f325e4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,95.83333333333334,47.105140103596796,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.33333333333333,47.049179559947774,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,92.66666666666666,46.485472580621256,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,85.0,45.28228290051567,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,84.33333333333333,43.92623198246986,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,77.66666666666667,41.88927928450025,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,73.83333333333333,42.51579967639686,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.83333333333334,40.931171483779714,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,66.66666666666667,39.65417127595432,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.33333333333334,40.26605676264323,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,64.83333333333336,40.023445008897305,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.0,38.09940061802194,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,49.00000000000001,34.357611241199095,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,49.00000000000001,35.5798994200739,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -FlowState,48.66666666666666,30.68598311802213,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,48.33333333333334,34.02528132692776,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,45.66666666666668,34.304846616783294,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -TFT,45.58333333333333,34.39379489295074,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.33333333333334,34.444932595485724,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,43.0,30.890375949929528,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,42.5,31.182648441489537,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,37.49999999999999,28.99041616417205,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,34.0,25.641579380120593,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,27.66666666666666,21.217567102831968,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,21.749999999999996,12.457381191619765,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,19.416666666666668,13.156560456056853,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,14.416666666666666,9.008132945543156,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,14.166666666666666,6.832233363582574,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.666666666666666,-25.50199781747715,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.666666666666666,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.333333333333334,-32.85429098273796,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,95.80645161290323,47.105140103596796,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.16129032258065,47.049179559947774,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,92.58064516129033,46.485472580621256,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.35483870967741,45.28228290051567,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,84.35483870967741,43.92623198246986,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,77.25806451612904,41.88927928450025,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,76.93548387096773,43.10181756241107,0.0,4.3975796048998745,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,72.74193548387096,42.51579967639686,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,71.93548387096773,40.931171483779714,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,65.32258064516128,39.65417127595432,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.83870967741936,40.26605676264323,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.22580645161291,40.023445008897305,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.77419354838709,38.09940061802194,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.41935483870968,35.5798994200739,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,47.41935483870968,30.68598311802213,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,47.41935483870968,34.357611241199095,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,47.096774193548384,34.02528132692776,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,44.67741935483872,34.304846616783294,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,44.435483870967744,34.39379489295074,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,44.03225806451613,34.444932595485724,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,41.612903225806456,30.890375949929528,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,41.29032258064515,31.182648441489537,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,36.29032258064516,28.99041616417205,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.903225806451616,25.641579380120593,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.7741935483871,21.217567102831968,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.048387096774196,12.457381191619765,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,18.79032258064516,13.156560456056853,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,13.95161290322581,9.008132945543156,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,13.709677419354838,6.832233363582574,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.29032258064516,-25.50199781747715,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.354838709677422,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.193548387096775,-32.85429098273796,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 3adc56f72eaf18f5cf810f74e58802a5effeb102..01ed7fc2c2b8fd8a9cf3e0b8889fc7db6da4082d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,96.83333333333334,66.67609437659667,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.5,66.67229326421315,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,93.16666666666666,66.42835118245338,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,85.83333333333333,65.49636349554686,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,85.83333333333333,64.64905946685398,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,77.66666666666666,63.05875031595707,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,75.16666666666667,63.92789670076326,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,74.16666666666667,62.51740509789393,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.0,61.657338261486025,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.83333333333334,61.98663035039822,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,65.33333333333331,61.929921677293606,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,64.83333333333333,60.871565834690514,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,54.33333333333334,59.42246884042356,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.66666666666667,58.416109773202194,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -FlowState,50.33333333333333,55.917373913965896,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,48.50000000000001,57.40397994436643,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,46.583333333333336,56.65838528437654,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -TFT,46.0,56.101100728840805,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,41.66666666666668,56.64773521043558,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,41.66666666666667,54.882167458139385,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,41.5,54.85929046462743,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,36.41666666666667,50.20430422932948,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,28.83333333333334,46.25315473529981,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,23.333333333333332,40.369919076130486,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,22.75,34.1099179045811,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -Stat. Ensemble,20.58333333333333,21.741616773476768,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,14.749999999999996,-26.853793282334813,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,10.833333333333334,-2.114517117703918,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.749999999999998,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.333333333333332,-102.14853947002402,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.0000000000000004,-110.24318719846286,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,96.61290322580645,66.67609437659667,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.48387096774194,66.67229326421315,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,93.06451612903226,66.42835118245338,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,85.64516129032258,64.64905946685398,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.3225806451613,65.49636349554686,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,77.25806451612904,63.05875031595707,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,76.61290322580645,64.10856710007313,0.0,4.3975796048998745,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,74.35483870967741,63.92789670076326,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,73.2258064516129,62.51740509789393,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,67.74193548387096,61.657338261486025,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,65.32258064516128,61.98663035039822,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.70967741935484,60.871565834690514,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.38709677419354,61.929921677293606,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,53.064516129032256,59.42246884042356,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.16129032258064,58.416109773202194,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,49.03225806451613,55.917373913965896,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,46.93548387096774,57.40397994436643,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,45.564516129032256,56.65838528437654,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,44.67741935483872,56.101100728840805,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.483870967741936,56.64773521043558,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,40.32258064516129,54.882167458139385,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,40.16129032258065,54.85929046462743,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.24193548387096,50.20430422932948,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.903225806451616,46.25315473529981,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,22.58064516129032,40.369919076130486,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,22.016129032258064,34.1099179045811,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,19.91935483870968,21.741616773476768,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,14.274193548387096,-26.853793282334813,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,10.483870967741936,-2.114517117703918,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.403225806451612,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.096774193548386,-102.14853947002402,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.9354838709677424,-110.24318719846286,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 2ebfd4c02ebe71e045c0646271c4f615644e6909..5c4929ae98945b5d414921b60c643cf27c560439 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,96.83333333333334,53.71035361627254,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.16666666666667,53.096830919470946,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,93.16666666666666,52.69411150627982,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,86.66666666666666,53.11122845988342,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,86.16666666666666,50.191472774349634,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,77.33333333333336,50.57276323971893,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,76.33333333333333,47.09252281338565,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,71.5,47.10219495180865,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.0,46.55373683052376,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.66666666666667,46.24771958720855,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,62.66666666666667,44.520635260445665,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,62.66666666666666,45.92336879321229,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,54.000000000000014,46.210313482546184,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,53.333333333333336,44.39308253523333,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,50.5,42.79254856807111,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,49.99999999999999,43.462794590251164,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.666666666666664,42.304181829008726,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,46.50000000000001,42.75818805959519,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.50000000000001,41.966358434053696,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,43.66666666666667,39.89366883509092,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -TFT,42.75,37.9920627846737,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,33.666666666666664,34.58752644878078,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,33.5,31.125782577257844,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.333333333333332,27.03716130150796,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,19.416666666666668,17.59542897915567,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,16.583333333333332,16.5309827995087,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,13.083333333333332,5.6618608202705705,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,11.5,12.660865320459136,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.166666666666666,4.49837321934039,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,6.666666666666667,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.000000000000001,-1.7537853153904326,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,96.93548387096774,53.71035361627254,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.3225806451613,53.096830919470946,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,93.2258064516129,52.69411150627982,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.29032258064517,53.11122845988342,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,86.29032258064517,50.191472774349634,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,76.77419354838709,49.59448987938475,0.0,4.3975796048998745,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.29032258064517,50.57276323971893,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,75.48387096774192,47.09252281338565,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,70.48387096774194,47.10219495180865,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,65.48387096774194,46.55373683052376,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.03225806451613,46.24771958720855,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.45161290322581,44.520635260445665,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.967741935483865,45.92336879321229,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,52.74193548387096,46.210313482546184,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,51.935483870967744,44.39308253523333,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,48.87096774193548,42.79254856807111,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +citras-fm,48.38709677419355,43.462794590251164,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,46.4516129032258,42.304181829008726,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,45.48387096774194,42.75818805959519,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.2258064516129,41.966358434053696,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,42.25806451612903,39.89366883509092,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +TFT,41.37096774193548,37.9920627846737,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,32.58064516129032,34.58752644878078,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.41935483870968,31.125782577257844,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.483870967741932,27.03716130150796,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,18.790322580645164,17.59542897915567,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,16.048387096774192,16.5309827995087,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,12.661290322580646,5.6618608202705705,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,11.129032258064516,12.660865320459136,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.806451612903226,4.49837321934039,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,6.451612903225806,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.870967741935485,-1.7537853153904326,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 15f904d93eec5d48928c847b6e231678133a7b71..55ab9b228ce0c28f417dd60a6d1c98b8d968c934 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,97.83333333333334,69.03469555605878,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,95.5,68.75529346896873,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,92.83333333333333,68.41066967488192,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,86.5,68.51966945307177,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,85.83333333333331,66.78327813931047,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.16666666666669,66.94397676250325,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,75.00000000000001,64.46135334372015,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.5,64.42603072886158,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,68.66666666666667,63.99709672683953,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.33333333333331,63.7537487246866,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,64.66666666666667,63.67831559208952,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,64.66666666666666,62.74382048246822,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,58.666666666666664,64.3601359782909,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,55.49999999999999,62.649468493586056,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.5,61.08750954950368,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,49.166666666666664,60.978054225927835,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,48.25000000000001,59.71037333425973,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 -TFT,45.16666666666666,55.556509382143545,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,43.66666666666667,58.432181218600874,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,41.0,58.15816295699815,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.50000000000001,59.21372871831863,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,35.91666666666667,50.79429174981283,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,28.500000000000004,46.843426009989976,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.000000000000004,40.70772252024998,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,20.916666666666668,34.821696297938075,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 -Stat. Ensemble,18.083333333333336,22.34504540092107,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,12.083333333333334,-39.995047645386684,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,10.333333333333332,7.361982676335321,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.583333333333334,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.5,-64.9788901369484,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.1666666666666665,-71.7471743825873,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,97.90322580645162,69.03469555605878,0.0,5.064579399732653,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,95.64516129032258,68.75529346896873,0.0,2.3743196950416188,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,92.90322580645162,68.41066967488192,0.0,0.9745701860666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.29032258064517,68.51966945307177,0.0,8.200040489446785,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,85.96774193548387,66.78327813931047,0.0,0.13920661274489796,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.93548387096774,66.94397676250325,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,76.61290322580645,66.40650113837772,0.0,4.3975796048998745,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,74.19354838709677,64.46135334372015,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,71.45161290322581,64.42603072886158,0.0,0.09261558033545919,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,67.25806451612904,63.99709672683953,0.0,0.19312244271691675,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.70967741935484,63.7537487246866,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.548387096774206,62.74382048246822,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.903225806451616,63.67831559208952,0.0,3.327645272361891,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,57.09677419354839,64.3601359782909,0.0,431.5150328579276,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,54.03225806451613,62.649468493586056,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.806451612903224,61.08750954950368,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +citras-fm,47.58064516129033,60.978054225927835,0.0,0.7048698485226532,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,47.177419354838705,59.71037333425973,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,43.70967741935484,55.556509382143545,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,42.41935483870968,58.432181218600874,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,39.67741935483871,58.15816295699815,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.354838709677416,59.21372871831863,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,34.91935483870968,50.79429174981283,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.580645161290317,46.843426009989976,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.225806451612907,40.70772252024998,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,20.241935483870968,34.821696297938075,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,17.5,22.34504540092107,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,11.693548387096774,-39.995047645386684,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,10.0,7.361982676335321,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.274193548387096,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.290322580645162,-64.9788901369484,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.096774193548387,-71.7471743825873,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv index ecfe69e4db9f899dc129f95ff9cf5ca5871107a4..d7e5c253457fca466cfc0a47312a673fc21200fe 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,9 +2,10 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.011,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.012,0.002,0.024 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.033,-0.023,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.031,0.088 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.033,-0.023,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.09,0.05,0.136 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.07,0.041,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.08,0.048,0.124 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.105,0.061,0.155 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.077,0.173 @@ -12,16 +13,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.114,0.07,0.181 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.073,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.082,0.223 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.237,0.125,0.356 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.118,0.279 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.114,0.268 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.235,0.163,0.308 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.587 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.012,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,0.001,0.022 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.032,-0.033,0.081 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.056,0.028,0.092 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.032,-0.033,0.081 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.051,0.132 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.069,0.039,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.079,0.042,0.127 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.06,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.077,0.175 @@ -29,16 +30,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.068,0.183 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.076,0.167 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.084,0.223 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.236,0.115,0.36 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.116,0.285 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.112,0.271 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.16,0.311 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.372,0.586 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.012,-0.024,-0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.023,-0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.022,-0.045,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.046,0.025,0.076 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.022,-0.045,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.079,0.045,0.121 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.059,0.029,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.069,0.033,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.056,0.144 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.113,0.073,0.158 @@ -46,33 +47,16 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.058,0.173 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.108,0.067,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.076,0.212 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.113,0.349 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.112,0.273 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.26 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.157,0.3 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.364,0.583 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.034,-0.086,0.022 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.033,-0.089,0.032 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.022,-0.077,0.043 -TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.024,-0.018,0.09 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.058,0.008,0.133 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.048,0.025,0.08 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.074,0.024,0.14 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.042,0.164 -TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.084,0.045,0.128 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.038,0.156 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.116,0.05,0.19 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.211,0.105,0.325 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.166,0.084,0.258 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.085,0.226 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.132,0.281 -TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.356,0.558 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.06,-0.096,-0.032 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.102,-0.029 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.048,-0.082,-0.026 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.025,-0.099,0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.025,-0.099,0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,0.012,0.064 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.014,-0.017,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.025,-0.013,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.03,0.076 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.046,0.096 @@ -80,16 +64,33 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.061,0.016,0.111 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,0.032,0.102 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.094,0.047,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.191,0.077,0.306 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.085,0.218 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.081,0.2 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.128,0.252 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.34,0.551 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.034,-0.086,0.022 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.033,-0.089,0.032 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.022,-0.077,0.043 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.024,-0.018,0.09 +TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.058,0.008,0.133 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.038,0.006,0.083 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.048,0.025,0.08 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.074,0.024,0.14 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.042,0.164 +TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.084,0.045,0.128 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.038,0.156 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.116,0.05,0.19 +TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.211,0.105,0.325 +TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.085,0.226 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.132,0.281 +TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.356,0.558 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.099,-0.157,-0.052 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.152,-0.053 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.086,-0.138,-0.047 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.062,-0.154,-0.008 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.068,-0.012 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.062,-0.154,-0.008 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.062,0.011 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.016,-0.007,0.04 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.059 @@ -97,16 +98,33 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.031,0.005,0.057 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,0.027,0.114 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.041,0.286 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.057,0.196 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.052,0.164 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.528 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.076,-0.124,-0.042 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.075,-0.123,-0.041 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.063,-0.111,-0.03 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.015,-0.046,0.017 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.04,-0.09,-0.006 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.011,0.059 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.01,-0.013,0.031 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.037,0.004,0.076 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.02,0.101 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.047,0.022,0.084 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.051,0.025,0.087 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.081,0.035,0.137 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.179,0.07,0.304 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.066,0.182 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.244 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.343,0.538 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.087,-0.141,-0.05 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.086,-0.145,-0.044 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.074,-0.13,-0.034 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.051,-0.087,-0.026 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.025,-0.055,0.013 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.051,-0.087,-0.026 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.01,-0.032,0.013 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.027,-0.006,0.067 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.047,0.011,0.093 @@ -114,16 +132,16 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,0.003,0.089 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.171,0.067,0.29 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.124,0.056,0.204 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.117,-0.184,-0.065 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.116,-0.187,-0.064 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.168,-0.059 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.08,-0.162,-0.025 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.083,-0.031 +Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.08,-0.162,-0.025 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.016,-0.042,0.007 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.082,-0.004 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.028,-0.072,0.006 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.021,0.008,0.034 @@ -131,16 +149,16 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.011,-0.032,0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.015,-0.017,0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.017,0.083 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.148,0.032,0.269 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.1,0.053,0.168 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.05,0.134 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.092,0.201 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.409,0.315,0.516 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.141,-0.209,-0.084 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.212,-0.083 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.128,-0.188,-0.078 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.196,-0.043 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.076,-0.106,-0.049 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.196,-0.043 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.038,-0.063,-0.014 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.061,-0.112,-0.02 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.05,-0.103,-0.011 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.022,-0.035,-0.008 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -148,16 +166,16 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.061,0.036 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.006,-0.045,0.025 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.025,-0.006,0.072 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.009,0.25 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.035,0.148 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.063,0.027,0.121 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.127,0.072,0.184 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.397,0.293,0.51 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.129,-0.22,-0.075 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.224,-0.073 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.209,-0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.092,-0.147,-0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.065,-0.125,-0.016 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.092,-0.147,-0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.05,-0.091,-0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.011,-0.05,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.01,-0.037,0.058 @@ -165,16 +183,16 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.004,-0.033,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.138,0.03,0.267 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.09,0.019,0.183 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.207,-0.079 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.2,-0.082 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.121,-0.188,-0.072 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.096,-0.185,-0.039 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.07,-0.114,-0.033 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.096,-0.185,-0.039 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.032,-0.061,-0.005 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.054,-0.095,-0.025 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.043,-0.098,-0.003 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.015,-0.044,0.017 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.006,-0.025,0.043 @@ -182,16 +200,16 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.004,-0.049,0.032 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.001,0.077 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.135,0.008,0.274 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.086,0.02,0.183 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,0.023,0.128 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.065,0.202 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.315,0.503 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.17,-0.287,-0.09 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.287,-0.092 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.27,-0.083 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.131,-0.235,-0.053 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.104,-0.176,-0.05 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.131,-0.235,-0.053 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.159,-0.036 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.091,-0.017 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.026,-0.077,0.006 @@ -199,16 +217,16 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.084,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.107,-0.02,0.236 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.003,0.138 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.31,-0.554,-0.142 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.309,-0.563,-0.131 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.295,-0.536,-0.128 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.267,-0.481,-0.118 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.236,-0.442,-0.084 +FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.267,-0.481,-0.118 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.193,-0.401,-0.043 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.218,-0.438,-0.076 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.206,-0.408,-0.072 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.173,-0.368,-0.033 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.333,-0.009 @@ -216,33 +234,16 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.16,-0.363,-0.031 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.156,-0.378,-0.008 FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.12,-0.308,0.02 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.056,-0.154,0.037 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.251,0.058 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.136,0.112 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.147,0.442 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.386,-0.134 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.24,-0.399,-0.131 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.227,-0.375,-0.126 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.347,-0.092 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.279,-0.093 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.244,-0.061 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.142,-0.256,-0.059 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.111,-0.202,-0.056 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.174,-0.036 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.099,-0.223,-0.019 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.094,-0.223,-0.021 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.159,0.003 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,-0.038,0.134 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.019,-0.102,0.052 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.05,-0.018,0.112 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.344,0.211,0.473 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.367,-0.129 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.371,-0.126 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.352,-0.12 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.291,-0.093 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.25,-0.088 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.291,-0.093 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.055 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.132,-0.222,-0.07 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.052 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.068,-0.137,-0.027 @@ -250,16 +251,16 @@ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.147,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.062,0.201 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.019,-0.054,0.093 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.307,-0.445,-0.194 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.452,-0.191 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.429,-0.186 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.263,-0.39,-0.152 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.336,-0.147 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.263,-0.39,-0.152 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.215,-0.323,-0.124 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.17,-0.252,-0.101 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.145,-0.225,-0.077 @@ -267,16 +268,16 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.152,-0.253,-0.069 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.003,-0.127,0.12 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.053,-0.126,0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.422,-0.588 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.413,-0.593 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.396,-0.571 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.265,-0.554 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.783,-1.229,-0.515 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.265,-0.554 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.121,-0.477 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.758,-1.164,-0.521 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.693,-1.065,-0.459 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.657,-1.043,-0.414 @@ -284,7 +285,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-1.014,-0.459 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.793,-0.172 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.523,-0.897,-0.267 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv index 8b6f04eedcf5f5080b2c2952dc5477f85fc2cd09..78991d391db43e31768a60ff42ff1ae3d242239a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -5,14 +5,14 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.007,-0.005,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.035,0.084 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.034,-0.017,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.06,0.139 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,0.046,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.076,0.052,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.069,0.154 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.084,0.178 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.081,0.177 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.214 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.107,0.265 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.135,0.358 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.13,0.271 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.194,0.323 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.566,0.758 @@ -22,14 +22,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.007,-0.001,0.018 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.031,0.089 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.034,-0.026,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.058,0.137 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.071,0.046,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.076,0.045,0.113 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.067,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.131,0.083,0.181 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.184 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.082,0.17 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.217 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.082,0.17 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.102,0.272 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.129,0.364 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.129,0.277 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.192,0.328 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.667,0.566,0.759 @@ -39,14 +39,14 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.03,0.076 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.027,-0.036,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.055,0.129 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,0.036,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.069,0.038,0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.104,0.064,0.149 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.124,0.08,0.171 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.117,0.072,0.179 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.165 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.084,0.212 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.165 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.093,0.266 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.238,0.125,0.356 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.124,0.271 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.19,0.318 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.561,0.758 @@ -56,14 +56,14 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.082,-0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.025,-0.101,0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.043,0.02,0.071 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.015,-0.024,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.02,-0.019,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.034,0.082 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.078,0.049,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.07,0.023,0.119 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.04,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.053,0.149 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.04,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.048,0.211 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.085,0.312 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.15,0.094,0.211 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.158,0.27 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.646,0.539,0.743 @@ -73,14 +73,14 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.028,-0.077,0.035 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.024,-0.019,0.092 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.066,0.014,0.144 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.01,0.077 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.043,0.021,0.076 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.028,0.153 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.1,0.045,0.177 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.052,0.136 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.094,0.042,0.166 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.052,0.195 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.094,0.042,0.166 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.15,0.09,0.222 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.217,0.114,0.329 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.097,0.253 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.16,0.31 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.557,0.746 @@ -90,31 +90,48 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.148,-0.058 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.045,-0.076,-0.02 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.169,-0.014 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.029,-0.081,0.007 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.014,-0.008,0.036 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.06 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.025,0.076 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.03,0.004,0.056 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.03,0.004,0.056 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.09,0.005,0.175 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.04,0.284 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.52,0.73 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.113,-0.048 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.077,-0.118,-0.048 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.111,-0.038 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.015,-0.048,0.023 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.084,-0.01 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.028,-0.007,0.075 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.019,0.027 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.042,0.003,0.089 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.064,0.02,0.116 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.028,0.09 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.083,0.031,0.143 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.057,0.025,0.101 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.053,0.197 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.076,0.206 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.138,0.27 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.641,0.539,0.734 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.082,-0.116,-0.055 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.082,-0.127,-0.047 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.074,-0.119,-0.039 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.02,-0.049,0.019 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.045,-0.082,-0.021 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.028,0.018 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.038,0.001,0.085 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.059,0.017,0.111 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.052,0.01,0.104 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.052,0.01,0.104 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.111,0.053,0.183 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.182,0.078,0.296 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735 @@ -124,14 +141,14 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.116,-0.175,-0.069 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.06,-0.089,-0.035 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.18,-0.029 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.015,-0.037,0.008 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.044,-0.098,-0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.039,-0.093,-0.001 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.022,0.009,0.035 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.014,-0.039,0.056 -Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.015,-0.014,0.039 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.042,0.015,0.077 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.015,-0.014,0.039 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.076,-0.009,0.147 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.028,0.27 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.099,0.061,0.145 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.12,0.218 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.625,0.515,0.726 @@ -141,14 +158,14 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.142,-0.206,-0.087 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.085,-0.119,-0.051 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.111,-0.215,-0.047 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.038,-0.064,-0.012 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.068,-0.131,-0.021 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.063,-0.125,-0.017 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.023,-0.037,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.349,0.75,-0.009,-0.07,0.04 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.046,0.022 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.02,-0.01,0.064 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.046,0.022 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.055,-0.036,0.135 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.13,0.007,0.247 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.043,0.128 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.106,0.197 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.505,0.72 @@ -158,99 +175,82 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.132,-0.218,-0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.075,-0.136,-0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.158,-0.055 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.098,-0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.014,-0.059,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,0.009,-0.041,0.065 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.038,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.038,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.063,0.005,0.129 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.138,0.034,0.263 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.208,-0.088 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.205,-0.09 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.197,-0.083 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.118,-0.041 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.103,-0.199,-0.044 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.055,-0.116,-0.01 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.016,-0.041,0.014 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.007,-0.023,0.044 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.055,0.037 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.001,0.067 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.062,-0.031,0.15 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.136,0.003,0.274 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.084,0.038,0.139 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.619,0.512,0.717 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.273,-0.097 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.277,-0.096 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.166,-0.27,-0.091 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.107,-0.176,-0.056 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.243,-0.055 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.09,-0.167,-0.032 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.044,-0.083,-0.015 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.02,-0.068,0.01 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.072,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.072,0.001 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.036,-0.056,0.102 -TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,-0.021,0.241 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.208,-0.088 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.142,-0.205,-0.09 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.197,-0.083 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.118,-0.041 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.103,-0.199,-0.044 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.061,-0.112,-0.026 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.055,-0.116,-0.01 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.016,-0.041,0.014 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.007,-0.023,0.044 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.055,0.037 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.001,0.067 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.062,-0.031,0.15 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.084,0.038,0.139 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.619,0.512,0.717 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.361,-0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.374,-0.114 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.209,-0.363,-0.103 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.148,-0.267,-0.05 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.285,-0.099 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.098,-0.212,-0.005 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.131,-0.246,-0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.125,-0.223,-0.057 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.083,-0.172,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.058,-0.156,0.035 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.067,-0.148,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.066,-0.176,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.037,-0.113,0.053 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.066,-0.176,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.08,-0.032,0.187 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.024,-0.037,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.101,0.008,0.193 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.594,0.486,0.694 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.323,-0.558,-0.156 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.571,-0.148 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.313,-0.553,-0.142 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.247,-0.453,-0.093 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.278,-0.491,-0.128 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.193,-0.397,-0.041 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.222,-0.421,-0.084 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.37,-0.029 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.15,-0.328,-0.007 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.16,-0.356,-0.035 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.158,-0.378,-0.003 -FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.127,-0.318,0.02 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.086,-0.23,0.031 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.225,0.076 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.023,-0.108,0.139 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.424,0.672 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.371,-0.15 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.383,-0.148 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.239,-0.371,-0.142 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.267,-0.104 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.338,-0.108 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.259,-0.082 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.169,-0.065 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.085,-0.146,-0.045 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.092,-0.161,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.092,-0.161,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.116,0.035 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.057,-0.083,0.184 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689 @@ -260,14 +260,14 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.466,-0.235 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.37,-0.188 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.45,-0.19 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.141 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.258,-0.369,-0.16 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.279,-0.137 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.246,-0.119 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.28,-0.105 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.28,-0.105 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.112,-0.239,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.161,0.097 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67 @@ -277,14 +277,14 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.979,-3.139,-1.28 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.829,-2.894,-1.168 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.898,-2.937,-1.256 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.085 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.786,-2.755,-1.169 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.668,-2.646,-1.063 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.608,-2.568,-1.019 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.627,-2.533,-1.049 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.627,-2.533,-1.049 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.464,-2.271,-0.947 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.268,-2.052,-0.736 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 06ed849e08bf6864329d7ee934112f679f4cc4db..a9b506980cb43ee33c5ad96e764213c06eabe0b9 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.013,-0.0,0.033 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.021,0.003,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.071,0.029,0.124 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.013,-0.079,0.073 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.051,0.116 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.063,0.023,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.053,0.213 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.066,0.193 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.166,0.087,0.257 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.144,0.086,0.219 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.079,0.256 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.139,0.049,0.245 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.114,0.276 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.156,0.302 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.421,0.654 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.013,-0.034,0.0 @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,-0.002,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.058,0.025,0.099 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.0,-0.113,0.07 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.045,0.101 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,-0.006,0.103 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.051,0.188 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.062,0.171 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.082,0.239 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.082,0.193 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.056,0.251 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.128,0.019,0.239 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.109,0.265 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.22,0.152,0.285 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.419,0.647 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.022,-0.054,-0.003 @@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.023,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.024,0.082 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.009,-0.132,0.066 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.061,0.036,0.094 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,-0.025,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.048,0.177 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.159 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.08,0.229 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.079,0.176 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.038,0.248 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.121,-0.004,0.231 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.108,0.251 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.151,0.275 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.414,0.642 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.076,-0.142,-0.03 @@ -55,6 +55,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.062,-0.11,-0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.089,-0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.062,-0.216,0.014 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.012,-0.026,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.008,-0.096,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.059,0.02,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.058,0.034,0.085 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.102,0.053,0.16 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.079,0.05,0.11 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,-0.035,0.209 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.074,-0.075,0.178 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.129,0.081,0.192 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.122,0.223 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.392,0.613 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.013,-0.079,0.074 @@ -72,6 +72,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.0,-0.075,0.102 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.009,-0.07,0.117 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.059,-0.015,0.178 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.07,0.011,0.162 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.051,0.016,0.104 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.114,0.013,0.263 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.029,0.24 @@ -81,14 +82,31 @@ TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.155,0.052,0.292 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.05,0.26 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.22 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.084,0.194 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.082,0.298 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.22,0.125,0.332 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.408,0.645 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.131,-0.054 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.112,-0.047 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.066,-0.104,-0.038 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.012,-0.04,0.025 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.075,-0.193,-0.011 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.02,-0.079,0.018 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.011,0.121 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.047,0.005,0.097 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.057,0.013,0.115 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.062,0.032,0.104 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.091,0.03,0.166 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.029,0.123 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.094,-0.012,0.183 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.063,-0.051,0.16 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.161,0.108,0.217 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.388,0.609 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.068,-0.124,-0.023 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.054,-0.115,0.006 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.045,-0.107,0.024 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.008,-0.046,0.087 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.054,-0.116,-0.016 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.019,-0.019,0.073 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.014,0.174 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.066,0.005,0.155 @@ -98,7 +116,6 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.029,0.175 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,0.049,0.183 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.155 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.27,-0.056 @@ -106,6 +123,7 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.232,-0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.215,-0.05 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.062,-0.128,-0.021 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.128,-0.356,-0.013 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.05,-0.138,0.01 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.211,0.014 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.0,-0.046,0.03 @@ -115,7 +133,6 @@ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,-0.002,0.1 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.022,-0.02,0.054 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.12,0.172 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.016,-0.189,0.136 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.139 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.051,0.182 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.58 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.239,-0.07 @@ -123,6 +140,7 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.206,-0.066 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.189,-0.063 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.062,-0.093,-0.036 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.316,-0.03 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.108,-0.005 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.07,-0.184,-0.005 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.0,-0.031,0.044 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,0.016,0.086 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,0.0,0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.109,0.156 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,-0.155,0.119 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.041,0.122 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.12,0.077,0.168 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.364,0.579 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.155,-0.264,-0.079 @@ -140,6 +157,7 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.14,-0.226,-0.074 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.13,-0.204,-0.073 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.073,-0.11,-0.044 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.14,-0.339,-0.039 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.06,-0.13,-0.013 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.081,-0.204,-0.013 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.01,-0.049,0.047 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.01,-0.034,0.012 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,0.003,0.082 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.013,0.038 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.039,-0.135,0.155 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.006,-0.176,0.12 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,0.026,0.12 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.066,0.165 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.355,0.579 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.255,-0.094 @@ -157,6 +174,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.236,-0.088 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.22,-0.082 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.079,-0.134,-0.037 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.291,-0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.066,-0.116,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.162,-0.031 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.074,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.016,-0.052,0.025 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.033,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,-0.09,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.001,-0.121,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.199,-0.346,-0.095 @@ -174,6 +191,7 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.313,-0.089 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.296,-0.087 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.114,-0.191,-0.056 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.183,-0.412,-0.055 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.101,-0.199,-0.031 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.264,-0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.002 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.094,-0.016 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.071,0.004 TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.176,0.116 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.901,-0.031,-0.219,0.065 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.168,-0.28,-0.094 @@ -191,6 +208,7 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.239,-0.09 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.213,-0.086 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.086,-0.124,-0.053 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.153,-0.351,-0.052 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.14,-0.03 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.212,-0.03 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.057,0.02 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.022,-0.044,-0.0 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ TS-ICL,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.004,0.066 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.133,0.132 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.005,-0.182,0.104 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.055,0.019,0.107 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.1,0.058,0.146 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.355,0.568 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.201,-0.344,-0.085 @@ -208,6 +225,7 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.335,-0.059 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.33,-0.04 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.264,0.034 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.281,-0.104 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.224,0.012 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.125,-0.224,-0.051 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.051,-0.208,0.107 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.051,-0.185,0.099 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.131,0.149 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.152,0.117 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.034,-0.124,0.05 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.093,0.164 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.075,-0.004,0.187 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.326,0.558 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.162,-0.325,-0.051 @@ -225,6 +242,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.147,-0.313,-0.019 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.137,-0.3,0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.08,-0.217,0.07 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.241,-0.092 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.067,-0.191,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.088,-0.184,-0.019 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.017,-0.157,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.017,-0.135,0.134 @@ -234,31 +252,14 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.099,0.45,0.03,-0.07,0.179 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.005,-0.116,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.033,-0.052,0.11 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.06,-0.026,0.187 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.105,-0.001,0.226 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.342,0.578 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.382,-0.129 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.36,-0.122 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.335,-0.121 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.238,-0.089 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.425,-0.09 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.292,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.162,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.139,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.07,-0.136,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.058,-0.12,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.197,0.085 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.064,-0.23,0.026 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.433,-0.184 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.399,-0.179 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.271,-0.38,-0.178 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.287,-0.139 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.282,-0.496,-0.143 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.192,-0.278,-0.121 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.349,-0.115 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.223,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.136,-0.201,-0.083 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.171,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.081,-0.231,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.117,-0.293,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-1.888,-0.726 @@ -276,6 +276,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.83,-0.721 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.114,-1.794,-0.707 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.008,-1.587,-0.645 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.133,-1.815,-0.688 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.557,-0.635 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.023,-1.609,-0.634 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.38,-0.588 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.375,-0.572 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.313,-0.551 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.26,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.859,-1.369,-0.521 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv index 98dd3e7879b18ee6880c590ccc061e916b4bf26d..e42f5abc69e968424371dac5faf9357b066fcf46 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.02,-0.002,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.016,-0.064,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.033,0.117 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.063,0.029,0.097 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.056,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.129,0.058,0.225 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.069,0.205 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.095,0.204 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.088,0.228 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.091,0.263 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.088,0.228 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.131,0.047,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.171,0.084,0.255 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.204,0.129,0.288 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.189,0.332 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.69,0.609,0.766 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.009,-0.027,0.004 @@ -22,15 +22,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,-0.002,0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.007,-0.09,0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.097 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.055,0.005,0.095 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.07,0.051,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.205 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.068,0.187 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.076,0.205 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.091,0.191 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.086,0.209 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.161,0.088,0.248 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.086,0.209 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.025,0.223 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.163,0.068,0.254 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.197,0.125,0.279 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.186,0.32 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.688,0.607,0.763 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.02,-0.056,0.002 @@ -39,15 +39,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.003,-0.118,0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.028,0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.044,-0.025,0.093 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.06,0.035,0.087 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.054,0.181 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.065,0.165 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.074,0.182 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.087,0.182 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.083,0.188 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.086,0.227 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.13,0.083,0.188 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.114,-0.005,0.22 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.045,0.251 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.124,0.259 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.185,0.304 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.684,0.602,0.763 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.017,-0.072,0.06 @@ -56,15 +56,15 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.003,-0.069,0.106 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.052,-0.016,0.163 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.048,0.016,0.095 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,0.012,0.144 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.114,0.013,0.265 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.03,0.246 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.126,0.04,0.26 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.061,0.229 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.048,0.264 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.155,0.054,0.294 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.048,0.264 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.077,0.178 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.098,0.221 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.094,0.312 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.157,0.358 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.595,0.761 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.133,-0.034 @@ -73,15 +73,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.079,-0.029 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.055,-0.194,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.005,-0.088,0.044 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.011,-0.026,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,0.023,0.123 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.036,0.1 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.044,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.084,0.052,0.121 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.052,0.126 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.108,0.057,0.168 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.052,0.126 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,-0.074,0.168 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.111,-0.022,0.213 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.146,0.095,0.205 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.157,0.257 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.584,0.745 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.068,-0.107,-0.03 @@ -90,32 +90,49 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.046,-0.103,0.024 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.05,-0.105,-0.016 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.005,-0.046,0.081 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.016,-0.018,0.062 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.071,0.004,0.171 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.082,0.016,0.185 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.09,0.026,0.189 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.09,0.026,0.189 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,0.011,0.147 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.05,0.188 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.115,-0.059 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.102,-0.054 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.063,-0.096,-0.036 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.067,-0.169,-0.013 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.011,-0.039,0.025 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.016,-0.067,0.018 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.055,-0.008,0.138 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,0.007,0.121 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.067,0.018,0.139 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.073,0.038,0.113 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.098,0.032,0.181 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.145 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.057,-0.051,0.151 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.101,0.001,0.187 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.197,0.139,0.259 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.584,0.741 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.148,-0.291,-0.061 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.137,-0.257,-0.06 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.222,-0.057 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.129,-0.361,-0.013 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.07,-0.141,-0.024 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.014 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.058,-0.161,0.008 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.04,0.028 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.013,-0.041,0.047 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.02,-0.047,0.073 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.022,-0.018,0.052 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.022,-0.018,0.052 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.003,-0.211,0.127 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.049,-0.131,0.178 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.563,0.725 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.149,-0.258,-0.075 @@ -124,15 +141,15 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.198,-0.069 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.326,-0.031 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.112,-0.038 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.076,-0.207,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.138,-0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.029,0.038 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.012,-0.009,0.034 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.028,0.056 -Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,0.0,0.04 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.045,0.016,0.082 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,0.0,0.04 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.002,-0.182,0.109 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.048,-0.128,0.162 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.049,0.128 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.15,0.107,0.197 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.559,0.727 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.163,-0.286,-0.084 @@ -141,15 +158,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.14,-0.222,-0.08 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.144,-0.352,-0.041 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.136,-0.046 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.089,-0.227,-0.017 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.072,-0.162,-0.019 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.013,-0.049,0.039 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.012,-0.035,0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.056,0.053 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.009,-0.011,0.03 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,0.004,0.075 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.009,-0.011,0.03 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.6,0.9,-0.01,-0.207,0.11 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.036,-0.151,0.155 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.075,0.041,0.122 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.099,0.185 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.64,0.55,0.728 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.256,-0.105 @@ -158,66 +175,66 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.223,-0.095 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.297,-0.065 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.091,-0.138,-0.055 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.097,-0.183,-0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.079,-0.127,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.019,-0.059,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.056,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.002,-0.039,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.002,-0.039,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.017,-0.149,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.104,0.121 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.296,-0.096 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.264,-0.095 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.15,-0.232,-0.091 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.359,-0.051 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.144,-0.055 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.099,-0.234,-0.027 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.055,0.018 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.021,-0.041,-0.0 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.031,0.011 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.002,-0.055,0.037 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.025,-0.001,0.061 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.019,-0.211,0.095 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,-0.153,0.141 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.067,0.032,0.109 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.093,0.176 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.552,0.72 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.356,-0.1 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.192,-0.33,-0.096 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.294,-0.094 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.183,-0.416,-0.057 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.122,-0.202,-0.061 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.127,-0.285,-0.033 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.109,-0.221,-0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.047,-0.089,-0.016 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.081,-0.004 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.026,-0.065,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.026,-0.065,0.001 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.045,-0.247,0.06 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.19,0.122 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.296,-0.096 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.264,-0.095 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.15,-0.232,-0.091 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.359,-0.051 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.144,-0.055 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.099,-0.234,-0.027 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.169,-0.03 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.055,0.018 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.021,-0.041,-0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.031,0.011 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.002,-0.055,0.037 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.025,-0.001,0.061 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.019,-0.211,0.095 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,-0.153,0.141 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.093,0.176 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.552,0.72 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.151,-0.285,-0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.141,-0.286,-0.025 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.128,-0.282,0.005 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.132,-0.216,-0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.202,0.069 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.172,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.061,-0.178,0.048 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.003,-0.146,0.175 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.002,-0.123,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.4,0.01,-0.124,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.017,-0.077,0.13 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.019,-0.105,0.174 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.043,-0.064,0.198 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.019,-0.105,0.174 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.046,-0.042,0.123 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.084,-0.013,0.224 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.148,0.036,0.276 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.549,0.724 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.206,-0.343,-0.092 @@ -226,49 +243,32 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.182,-0.334,-0.047 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.186,-0.284,-0.109 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.124,-0.271,0.021 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.232,-0.053 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.23,-0.001 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.217,0.116 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.05,-0.194,0.113 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.037,-0.184,0.131 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.137,0.094 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.028,-0.164,0.132 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.139,0.159 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.028,-0.164,0.132 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.048,-0.141,0.04 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.04,-0.089,0.189 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.107,0.023,0.228 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.538,0.704 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.404,-0.148 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.245,-0.387,-0.143 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.35,-0.142 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.454,-0.104 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.171,-0.257,-0.105 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.33,-0.071 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.147,-0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.081,-0.139,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.071,-0.122,-0.033 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.092,-0.288,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.042,-0.233,0.082 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.351,-0.498,-0.233 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.471,-0.228 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.437,-0.227 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.329,-0.558,-0.186 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.26,-0.345,-0.186 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.429,-0.154 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.35,-0.161 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.267,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.246,-0.12 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.227,-0.11 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.214,-0.102 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.214,-0.102 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.174,-0.382,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.12,-0.295,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.229,-3.277,-1.556 @@ -277,14 +277,14 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.166,-3.211,-1.516 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.177,-3.181,-1.472 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.011,-2.926,-1.406 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.025,-2.936,-1.394 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.977,-2.865,-1.402 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.639,-1.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.811,-2.664,-1.269 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.778,-2.67,-1.221 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.753,-2.574,-1.232 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.753,-2.574,-1.232 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.806,-2.622,-1.215 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.677,-2.381,-1.163 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 60999d4428604c43c90c8582525a6dd43a9d38eb..746d87bd05dac44619fdd5e2dc531a48635469f9 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,88.6111111111111,40.553930524399625,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,83.33333333333334,39.84025129195216,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,77.77777777777779,38.47702197421158,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,73.6111111111111,37.883510512986405,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,72.22222222222221,37.647796213911036,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.72222222222224,37.649421436010044,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,69.72222222222223,37.637104246897856,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.66666666666666,36.87592044073875,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,66.1111111111111,36.307128273958256,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,64.44444444444444,36.739370201928836,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,61.944444444444436,35.908870624227376,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.833333333333314,35.21482359572895,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -CatBoost,59.72222222222221,35.982559330359685,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,54.722222222222214,32.41516602344565,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,54.44444444444444,35.180832137280916,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.66666666666667,34.02322385198361,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.55555555555554,33.893658085803416,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,48.05555555555556,34.19057001716027,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,47.22222222222222,32.52926186802178,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,45.00000000000001,32.83344751489832,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Drift,44.99999999999999,29.639454067966152,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,44.16666666666666,29.501972032987776,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,35.55555555555555,28.575629786307356,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,34.44444444444444,30.133730029400986,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,34.444444444444436,28.236498726126015,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -DeepAR,26.38888888888889,24.302560020818376,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,18.888888888888882,19.70951503418047,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,13.888888888888888,15.279108700450617,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.055555555555559,15.593612422240255,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -TFT,10.555555555555555,9.838087249658834,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.222222222222221,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,88.70967741935483,40.553930524399625,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.60215053763442,39.84025129195216,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,77.41935483870968,38.47702197421158,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,74.46236559139786,37.883510512986405,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.8494623655914,37.647796213911036,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,70.43010752688173,37.637104246897856,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.43010752688171,37.649421436010044,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,66.93548387096774,36.87592044073875,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,65.86021505376344,36.307128273958256,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,63.97849462365591,36.739370201928836,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,61.82795698924731,35.908870624227376,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.483870967741936,35.21482359572895,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +CatBoost,59.13978494623655,35.982559330359685,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.83870967741935,32.41516602344565,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,54.56989247311829,35.180832137280916,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,52.41935483870967,34.556069294115424,0.0,0.19918463912297943,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,51.344086021505376,34.02322385198361,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,50.806451612903224,33.893658085803416,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.8494623655914,34.19057001716027,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,46.774193548387096,32.52926186802178,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,44.354838709677416,32.83344751489832,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Drift,44.354838709677416,29.639454067966152,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,43.27956989247313,29.501972032987776,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,35.21505376344086,28.575629786307356,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,34.67741935483871,30.133730029400986,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,34.40860215053764,28.236498726126015,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +DeepAR,26.075268817204307,24.302560020818376,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,18.548387096774192,19.70951503418047,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,13.709677419354838,15.279108700450617,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.903225806451612,15.593612422240255,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +TFT,10.483870967741936,9.838087249658834,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,7.258064516129033,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv index a74e55d0e7a20228071c23a250c3eb0dc1cb3282..8cbe4f48cb324a1e3f64467d4a4dadbe6cdda038 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,92.22222222222221,41.37587435805797,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.44444444444444,40.174803180792665,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.2222222222222,38.54527045088485,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.94444444444443,38.30540837943911,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.3888888888889,38.16787226217255,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.3888888888889,38.27714813601945,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,75.83333333333333,38.28322277552283,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,75.55555555555554,37.73601252203713,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,68.33333333333333,37.119576639717835,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,64.16666666666667,35.273957411546085,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,60.83333333333335,35.90432755342822,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,60.2777777777778,35.245938628620046,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.05555555555555,33.496371356107844,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.777777777777786,35.173459448094114,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,54.44444444444444,29.18586393990128,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,48.8888888888889,32.772070331944484,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.944444444444436,31.72145242450589,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,45.00000000000001,31.81815534740079,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,44.722222222222214,29.358753198562194,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,38.88888888888889,29.079628766325204,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,38.611111111111114,29.19971717461506,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,38.33333333333334,29.61896808086114,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -Drift,38.05555555555556,25.58270375016218,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,36.11111111111111,25.12762288287479,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.388888888888886,24.325044506495818,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,21.666666666666668,23.419716355230047,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,18.888888888888893,16.930294384775955,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,14.444444444444443,14.510260955147846,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.333333333333334,11.510640002523509,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -TFT,13.055555555555557,9.329379481293765,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.777777777777778,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,92.20430107526882,41.37587435805797,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.67741935483872,40.174803180792665,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.68817204301077,38.54527045088485,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,77.15053763440861,38.30540837943911,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.88172043010752,38.27714813601945,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,76.34408602150536,38.16787226217255,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,76.07526881720432,38.28322277552283,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,75.0,37.73601252203713,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,67.74193548387096,37.119576639717835,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,63.44086021505375,35.273957411546085,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,60.75268817204302,35.90432755342822,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,59.67741935483871,35.916024615133665,0.0,0.19918463912297943,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,59.67741935483871,35.245938628620046,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.52688172043011,33.496371356107844,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.25806451612904,35.173459448094114,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,53.76344086021505,29.18586393990128,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,48.11827956989247,32.772070331944484,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,46.774193548387096,31.72145242450589,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,44.892473118279575,31.81815534740079,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,43.81720430107527,29.358753198562194,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,38.44086021505376,29.079628766325204,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,38.17204301075268,29.19971717461506,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,37.903225806451616,29.61896808086114,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,37.36559139784946,25.58270375016218,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.75268817204301,25.12762288287479,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.806451612903224,24.325044506495818,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,21.236559139784944,23.419716355230047,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,18.27956989247312,16.930294384775955,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,14.24731182795699,14.510260955147846,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.903225806451612,11.510640002523509,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +TFT,12.903225806451612,9.329379481293765,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,7.526881720430106,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index f7c392f5c78102d863a68f35f97b15dacb259566..8d4b43cf99179029a135768edd79786f508d151b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,86.94444444444446,42.13247790984753,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.16666666666667,42.69479221914494,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.16666666666667,38.80502192761649,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.05555555555556,39.10703314170318,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.88888888888889,38.257695402459,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,70.0,37.906655236674865,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.77777777777777,37.758720587285445,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,62.22222222222222,38.177219528557146,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,61.94444444444442,36.558735189016225,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,57.77777777777777,35.89256072267927,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.77777777777777,33.97875884401389,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.666666666666664,36.531743334435674,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,55.833333333333336,37.645403955852096,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -citras-fm,54.44444444444444,34.4896707490341,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,53.888888888888886,35.20082715344605,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.94444444444445,33.31225235226658,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,51.944444444444436,34.84116662551825,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,50.55555555555554,35.02206834104291,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,47.22222222222222,35.732170334358024,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,43.888888888888886,30.478143266802604,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,43.611111111111114,29.457560079978773,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,42.22222222222223,28.277512977220987,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,41.388888888888886,31.812923074763923,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -Drift,40.83333333333333,28.435824921980835,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,38.611111111111114,25.73612363732908,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.16666666666666,15.872310498117715,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,18.33333333333333,17.737235971841127,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,17.222222222222218,19.60425306556468,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,17.222222222222218,15.619782622761335,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -TFT,14.444444444444443,6.946074243338563,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.833333333333336,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,87.09677419354838,42.13247790984753,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.13978494623656,42.69479221914494,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.56989247311827,38.80502192761649,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.49462365591397,39.10703314170318,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.19354838709677,38.257695402459,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,70.43010752688171,37.906655236674865,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.27956989247312,37.758720587285445,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,62.096774193548384,36.558735189016225,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,61.82795698924731,38.177219528557146,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.52688172043011,33.97875884401389,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,57.5268817204301,35.89256072267927,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.451612903225815,36.531743334435674,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.64516129032258,37.645403955852096,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +citras-fm,54.301075268817215,34.4896707490341,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,54.3010752688172,34.65499019284073,0.0,0.19918463912297943,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,53.49462365591398,35.20082715344605,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.61290322580645,33.31225235226658,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,51.61290322580645,34.84116662551825,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,50.26881720430107,35.02206834104291,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,47.31182795698925,35.732170334358024,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,43.54838709677419,30.478143266802604,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,43.01075268817204,29.457560079978773,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,41.66666666666667,28.277512977220987,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,41.12903225806452,31.812923074763923,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,40.32258064516129,28.435824921980835,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,37.903225806451616,25.73612363732908,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.086021505376344,15.872310498117715,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,18.010752688172044,17.737235971841127,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,17.204301075268816,15.619782622761335,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,16.666666666666664,19.60425306556468,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +TFT,14.247311827956988,6.946074243338563,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.021505376344084,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv index eb63131ae80bcd1693e2971f06f7da9650653e18..8d423347261b18a01f2d3b6ebe426329824082ab 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,88.33333333333333,45.53906787899109,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.72222222222221,45.84953802579841,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,81.1111111111111,42.35200647023204,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.16666666666666,42.8032329067254,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.72222222222223,42.088190864136244,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.88888888888889,42.09146596586096,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,73.88888888888889,42.320942130283335,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,68.33333333333333,40.960757337476025,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,63.888888888888886,39.04918118052987,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.5,40.9054936267241,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.11111111111111,38.100769058535434,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,60.83333333333333,40.20371520247606,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,59.999999999999986,39.266493040907115,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,58.05555555555556,38.36462827294697,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,55.27777777777777,37.992090519620156,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.555555555555564,35.534952430792764,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,50.0,36.76571988294681,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,47.77777777777778,34.00880337940215,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.11111111111112,32.793225265991246,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,44.72222222222222,34.44615311952015,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,41.94444444444444,29.757321220508814,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.55555555555555,29.146207850323268,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 -Drift,30.277777777777775,23.828649343246187,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,25.27777777777777,26.0945614678313,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,25.27777777777777,25.89068156049532,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,24.44444444444444,21.869167576579297,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,21.94444444444444,19.911167839333967,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,17.499999999999996,17.532849869365606,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -TFT,15.833333333333332,9.939963215759995,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.55555555555555,11.371958531244664,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.388888888888891,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,88.17204301075269,45.53906787899109,0.0,0.11294837920086495,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.67741935483872,45.84953802579841,0.0,0.8189295783813578,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,81.18279569892474,42.35200647023204,0.0,2.4167769806179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.03225806451613,42.8032329067254,0.0,5.236902611304615,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,74.46236559139786,42.320942130283335,0.0,0.2300832338301921,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.46236559139786,42.088190864136244,0.0,0.9865880503225806,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.19354838709677,42.09146596586096,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,67.74193548387096,40.960757337476025,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,63.70967741935484,39.04918118052987,0.0,0.12518068105908503,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.096774193548384,40.9054936267241,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +t0-beta,61.29032258064516,39.52414153578086,0.0,0.19918463912297943,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,61.021505376344074,38.100769058535434,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.21505376344085,40.20371520247606,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,59.13978494623656,39.266493040907115,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,57.5268817204301,38.36462827294697,0.0,0.1810118077664009,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,54.83870967741935,37.992090519620156,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.73118279569893,35.534952430792764,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,49.46236559139784,36.76571988294681,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,46.774193548387096,34.00880337940215,0.0,190.9822121554963,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,45.43010752688172,32.793225265991246,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,44.354838709677416,34.44615311952015,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,40.86021505376344,29.757321220508814,0.0,0.8407145490361518,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.215053763440864,29.146207850323268,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,29.838709677419356,23.828649343246187,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,24.73118279569892,26.0945614678313,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.73118279569892,25.89068156049532,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,23.65591397849462,21.869167576579297,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,21.774193548387096,19.911167839333967,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,17.20430107526882,17.532849869365606,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +TFT,15.591397849462366,9.939963215759995,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.32258064516129,11.371958531244664,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.559139784946236,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv index 51767e1e8e8d4b28a5cfeafd4eabd84c5e3f16e5..7cefcd458a086b7c0072944cbb0be889c4cca777 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.001,0.041 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.046,0.014,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.05,0.019,0.077 -TiRex-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.052,0.026,0.086 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.046,0.014,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.05,0.022,0.076 +TiRex-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.052,0.026,0.086 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.05,0.023,0.079 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.058,0.014,0.109 TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.107 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.027,0.152 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.061,0.181 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.049,0.126 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.052,0.117 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.05,0.135 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.096,0.05,0.138 -TiRex-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.172,0.075,0.301 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.09,0.195 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.318,0.502 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.043,0.001 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.006,0.061 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.03,0.003,0.065 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.004,0.07 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.006,0.061 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,0.005,0.059 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.004,0.07 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.031,0.014,0.047 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.039,-0.014,0.095 TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.049,0.009,0.086 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.076,0.018,0.127 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.1,0.045,0.158 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.044,0.092 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.036,0.096 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.034,0.125 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.077,0.021,0.125 -TimesFM-3,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.155,0.061,0.285 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.075,0.171 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.303,0.491 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.048,-0.084,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.065,0.006 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.004,-0.011,0.018 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.017,0.03 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.004,-0.006,0.014 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.004,-0.024,0.036 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.013,-0.029,0.057 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.023,-0.033,0.071 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.024,0.108 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.076,0.006,0.146 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.041,0.0,0.089 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.051,0.026,0.078 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.005,0.095 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.132,0.027,0.27 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.099,0.05,0.146 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.285,0.47 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.052,-0.083,-0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.031,-0.069,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.004,-0.018,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.002,-0.025,0.032 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.004,-0.018,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.0,-0.016,0.014 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.002,-0.025,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.0,-0.03,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.009,-0.036,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.04,0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.047,-0.032,0.1 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.072,0.013,0.134 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.037,-0.006,0.08 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.037,0.009,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.024,0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.007,0.097 -Toto-2.0-1B,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.129,0.018,0.268 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.095,0.048,0.139 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.383,0.278,0.469 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.094,-0.027 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.034,-0.075,0.003 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.031,0.017 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.002,-0.033,0.024 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.03,0.024 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.002,-0.037,0.033 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06 -TiRex,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.045,-0.023,0.098 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.07,-0.008,0.143 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.415,0.917,0.035,-0.011,0.083 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,0.013,0.08 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.046,0.002,0.086 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.127,0.025,0.268 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.048,-0.084,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.065,0.006 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.004,-0.011,0.018 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.004,-0.006,0.014 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.017,0.03 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.004,-0.024,0.036 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.013,-0.029,0.057 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.023,-0.033,0.071 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.024,0.108 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.076,0.006,0.146 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.041,0.0,0.089 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.062 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.051,0.026,0.078 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.005,0.095 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.099,0.05,0.146 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.285,0.47 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.053,-0.082,-0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.062,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.004,-0.014,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.0,-0.015,0.015 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.025,0.029 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.004,-0.014,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.025,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.0,-0.024,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.009,-0.038,0.056 Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.018,-0.031,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.046,-0.02,0.099 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.072,0.005,0.139 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,0.001,0.079 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.037,0.016,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.016,0.081 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.048,0.0,0.09 -Toto-2.0-313m,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.128,0.025,0.267 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.047,0.142 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.283,0.468 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.094,-0.027 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.034,-0.075,0.003 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.002,-0.033,0.024 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.031,0.017 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.03,0.024 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.002,-0.037,0.033 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06 +TiRex,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.045,-0.023,0.098 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.07,-0.008,0.143 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.415,0.917,0.035,-0.011,0.083 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,0.006,0.064 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,0.013,0.08 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.046,0.002,0.086 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.053,-0.086,-0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.032,-0.049,-0.014 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.004,-0.038,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.0,-0.028,0.029 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.002,-0.034,0.036 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.004,-0.038,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.0,-0.025,0.023 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.002,-0.034,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.009,-0.051,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.019,-0.03,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.046,-0.012,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.072,0.016,0.131 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.037,0.019,0.057 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.059 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.091 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.048,-0.011,0.096 -Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,0.025,0.268 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.095,0.055,0.138 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.284,0.473 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.062,-0.123,-0.014 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.041,-0.105,0.014 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.013,-0.06,0.028 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.009,-0.059,0.035 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.013,-0.06,0.028 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.009,-0.06,0.036 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.009,-0.065,0.049 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.01,-0.042,0.051 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.038,-0.034,0.106 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.021,0.141 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.415,0.917,0.029,-0.035,0.098 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.028,-0.024,0.082 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.038,-0.003,0.079 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.005,0.072 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.261 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.043,0.142 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.457 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.073,-0.119,-0.024 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.094,-0.009 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.023,-0.076,0.032 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.019,-0.072,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.023,-0.076,0.032 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.019,-0.069,0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.019,-0.066,0.029 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.01,-0.053,0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.029,-0.016,0.073 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.054,-0.012,0.118 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.029,0.073 +Stat. Ensemble,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.039,0.076 Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.029,-0.031,0.098 Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.03,-0.01,0.063 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.112,0.011,0.257 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.131 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.288,0.452 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.179,-0.028 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.082,-0.145,-0.019 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.121,0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.049,-0.112,0.031 -FlowState,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.047,-0.109,0.023 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.121,0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.049,-0.109,0.02 +FlowState,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.047,-0.109,0.023 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.109,0.012 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.04,-0.118,0.033 FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.029,-0.079,0.016 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.292,0.833,0.027,-0.057,0.11 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.079,0.052 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.01,-0.084,0.061 FlowState,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.0,-0.075,0.088 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.065,0.055 -FlowState,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.086,-0.042,0.243 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.051,-0.002,0.101 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.274,0.424 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.221,-0.065 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.112,-0.188,-0.047 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.082,-0.171,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.078,-0.155,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.008 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.082,-0.171,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.077,-0.162,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.008 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.078,-0.151,-0.017 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.068,-0.164,0.021 Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.134,0.012 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.708,-0.027,-0.124,0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.038,-0.107,0.022 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.038,-0.125,0.034 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.108,0.041 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.134,0.065 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.061,-0.086,0.229 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.025,-0.031,0.083 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.215,0.436 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.144,-0.052 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.101,-0.046 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.043,-0.097,-0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.039,-0.087,0.006 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.585,-0.037,-0.091,0.011 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.043,-0.097,-0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.086,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.585,-0.037,-0.091,0.011 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.039,-0.06,-0.019 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.585,-0.029,-0.108,0.034 Toto-2.0-4m,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.079,0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.055,0.073 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.036,-0.022,0.097 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.0,-0.038,0.033 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.052,0.069 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.011,-0.067,0.07 -Toto-2.0-4m,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.095,-0.02,0.241 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.06,0.01,0.112 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.246,0.458 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.132,-0.054 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.106,-0.037 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.039,-0.066,-0.009 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.067,-0.019 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.038,-0.058,-0.016 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.036,-0.068,-0.006 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.038,-0.062,-0.012 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.029,-0.09,0.023 +t0-beta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.083,0.038 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.01,-0.065,0.078 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.036,0.111 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.0,-0.034,0.037 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.01,-0.025,0.049 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.011,-0.049,0.063 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.06,0.009,0.114 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.251,0.456 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.157,-0.053 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.143,-0.035 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.054,-0.084,-0.027 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.05,-0.077,-0.024 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.087,-0.013 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.054,-0.084,-0.027 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.089,-0.016 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.087,-0.013 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.049,-0.1,-0.005 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.04,-0.085,0.003 citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.03,-0.108,0.03 citras-fm,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.0,-0.097,0.069 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.026,-0.043,0.097 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.074,0.049 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.01,-0.051,0.024 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.067,0.061 -citras-fm,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.086,-0.03,0.231 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.05,-0.003,0.098 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.352,0.233,0.442 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.106,-0.16,-0.053 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.084,-0.143,-0.021 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.105,-0.005 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.051,-0.107,0.007 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.048,-0.094,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.105,-0.005 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.05,-0.099,-0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.048,-0.094,-0.002 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.05,-0.106,0.011 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.077,-0.005 TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.031,-0.067,0.009 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.058,0.061 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.025,-0.069,0.118 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.011,-0.075,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.012,-0.067,0.046 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.065,0.063 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.085,-0.026,0.234 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.015,0.114 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.435 -AutoETS,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.208,-0.431,-0.081 -AutoETS,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.184,-0.399,-0.065 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.152,-0.369,-0.028 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.148,-0.366,-0.018 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.367,-0.025 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.147,-0.365,-0.025 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.147,-0.367,-0.026 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.137,-0.354,-0.02 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.126,-0.345,-0.012 -AutoETS,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.094,-0.322,0.04 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.065,-0.298,0.08 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.105,-0.317,0.019 -AutoETS,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.094,-0.3,0.029 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.092,-0.306,0.025 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.039,-0.251,0.086 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.084,0.43 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.163,-0.242,-0.099 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.206,-0.081 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.109,-0.171,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.105,-0.162,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.109,-0.171,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.165,-0.049 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.105,-0.159,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.165,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.151,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.053,-0.113,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.09,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.064,-0.126,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.064,-0.129,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.053,-0.108,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.128,0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.037,-0.094,0.201 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.219,0.402 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.706,-1.009,-0.467 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-0.965,-0.435 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.887,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.621,-0.884,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.887,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.62,-0.881,-0.394 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.62,-0.898,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.842,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.824,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.736,-0.377 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.774,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.847,-0.326 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.837,-0.334 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.544,-0.793,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.769,-0.363 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.755,-0.091 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.673,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 5785d4f5cdda95477423be2df25ab2a390d12718..7f50ddfaafecfb4a035d26bec2956e938e798cfd 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -7,13 +7,13 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.063,-0.007,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.068,0.017,0.127 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.07,0.023,0.119 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.017,0.151 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.124,0.043,0.2 TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.008,0.14 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.124,0.043,0.2 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.072,-0.004,0.126 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.043,0.154 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,-0.003,0.217 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.001,0.173 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.053,0.186 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.049,0.18 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.089,0.254 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.305,0.538 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.01,-0.06,0.074 @@ -24,13 +24,13 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.072,0.001,0.168 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.077,0.025,0.128 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.079,0.017,0.163 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.097,0.015,0.191 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.21 TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.108 +TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.21 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.081,0.031,0.129 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.037,0.198 -TimesFM-3,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.116,0.052,0.185 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.097,0.041,0.159 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.044,0.231 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.123,0.054,0.209 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.096,0.254 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.327,0.525 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.058,-0.156,0.019 @@ -41,13 +41,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.009,-0.017,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.014,-0.085,0.08 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.017,-0.022,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.015,0.078 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.073,-0.013,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.01,-0.138,0.106 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.073,-0.013,0.157 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.152,0.114 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.045,-0.002,0.093 -Toto-2.0-1B,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.056,-0.124,0.175 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.036,-0.112,0.136 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.032,0.103 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.024,0.098 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.12,0.045,0.197 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.388,0.248,0.515 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.052,-0.132,0.021 @@ -58,13 +58,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.014,-0.007,0.033 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.019,-0.065,0.083 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.022,-0.004,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.04,0.0,0.076 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.078,-0.001,0.164 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.015,-0.114,0.104 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.078,-0.001,0.164 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.13,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.05,0.012,0.094 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.104,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.09,0.131 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.07,0.035,0.107 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.039,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,0.054,0.199 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.391,0.26,0.511 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.067,-0.156,0.007 @@ -75,13 +75,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.006,-0.071,0.063 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.008,-0.021,0.035 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.018,0.066 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.065,-0.011,0.147 Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.131,0.091 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.065,-0.011,0.147 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.01,-0.142,0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.004,0.079 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.047,-0.108,0.154 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.108,0.124 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.058,0.014,0.098 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.055,0.03,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.112,0.053,0.179 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.383,0.252,0.506 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.073,-0.145,-0.018 @@ -92,13 +92,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.006,-0.067,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.248,0.75,0.002,-0.05,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.021,-0.055,0.091 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.059,-0.005,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.084,0.066 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.059,-0.005,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.004,-0.084,0.08 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.046,0.105 -Toto-2.0-22m,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.042,-0.064,0.136 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.022,-0.074,0.112 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,-0.018,0.13 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.05,0.011,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.057,0.155 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.379,0.262,0.497 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.076,-0.135,-0.023 @@ -109,13 +109,13 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.008,-0.036,0.021 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.752,-0.002,-0.061,0.048 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.026,0.055 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.011,0.131 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.011,0.131 TiRex,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.132,0.081 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.039,-0.111,0.151 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.098,0.11 TiRex,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.05,0.012,0.089 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.047,0.02,0.078 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.178,-0.018 @@ -126,32 +126,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.07,0.018 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.022,-0.1,0.052 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.059,0.025 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.047,0.129 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.047,0.129 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.017,-0.169,0.081 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.021,-0.142,0.136 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.0,-0.134,0.102 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.004,0.065 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.029,-0.024,0.092 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.141,-0.249,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.152,-0.266,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.079,-0.187,0.013 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.196,0.001 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.069,-0.173,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.063,-0.136,0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.151,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.149,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.024 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.059,-0.205,0.059 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.139,0.05 -Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.019,-0.168,0.102 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.192,0.084 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.008,-0.106,0.078 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.093 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.068,-0.163,0.008 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.121,-0.037 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.01,-0.119,0.121 @@ -160,15 +143,32 @@ Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.001,-0.1,0.116 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.071,0.077 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.079,0.105 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.052,0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.025,0.153 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.025,0.153 Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.009,-0.049,0.064 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.046,-0.019,0.117 Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.033,0.082 Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.056,-0.041,0.172 +Stat. Ensemble,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.054,-0.039,0.157 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.141,-0.249,-0.045 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.152,-0.266,-0.054 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.079,-0.187,0.013 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.196,0.001 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.069,-0.173,0.011 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.063,-0.136,0.005 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.151,0.011 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.149,0.045 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.024 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.059,-0.205,0.059 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.139,0.05 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.192,0.084 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.008,-0.106,0.078 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.01,-0.086,0.055 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.093 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.144,0.004 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.088,-0.148,-0.032 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.019,-0.129,0.132 @@ -177,13 +177,13 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.01,-0.119,0.124 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.004,-0.087,0.077 FlowState,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.002,-0.088,0.117 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.017,-0.088,0.144 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.056,-0.062,0.17 FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.009,-0.068,0.047 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.056,-0.062,0.17 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.064,0.149 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.038,-0.03,0.127 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.018,-0.056,0.079 FlowState,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.048,-0.056,0.183 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.046,-0.055,0.164 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.103,-0.011,0.214 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.376,0.258,0.488 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.108,-0.182,-0.045 @@ -194,32 +194,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.085,0.004 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.118,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.03,-0.071,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.011,-0.052,0.025 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.053,0.122 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.053,0.122 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.174,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.151,0.126 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.144,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.032,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.042,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.278,0.003 -CatBoost,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.131,-0.227,-0.055 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.059,-0.212,0.11 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.208,0.094 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.181,0.097 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.044,-0.157,0.06 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.041,-0.178,0.1 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.021,-0.157,0.125 -CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.019,-0.114,0.144 -CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.048,-0.133,0.018 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.146,0.029 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.145,0.131 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.113,0.061 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.011,-0.143,0.169 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.068,-0.042,0.181 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.443 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.209,-0.001 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.108,-0.188,-0.043 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.158,0.101 @@ -228,13 +211,13 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.142,0.097 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.022,-0.126,0.069 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.124,0.089 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.0,-0.113,0.119 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.039,-0.092,0.161 TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.089,0.032 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.039,-0.092,0.161 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.018,-0.086,0.053 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.095,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.101 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.031,-0.101,0.16 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.029,-0.082,0.14 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.087,-0.047,0.2 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.273,0.457 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.229,-0.056 @@ -245,15 +228,32 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.061,-0.108,-0.014 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.15,0.017 citras-fm,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.053,-0.098,-0.012 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.033,-0.069,0.003 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.008,-0.085,0.096 citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.06,-0.208,0.04 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.008,-0.085,0.096 citras-fm,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.051,-0.224,0.053 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.022,-0.062,0.031 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.011,-0.203,0.125 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.032,-0.191,0.092 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.003,-0.06,0.052 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.058,-0.021,0.147 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.345,0.198,0.487 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.129,-0.219,-0.052 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.14,-0.265,-0.057 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.068,-0.108,-0.024 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.04 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.058,-0.092,-0.03 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.052,-0.112,-0.011 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.085,-0.02 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.03,-0.102,0.024 +t0-beta,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.057,-0.186,0.038 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.01,-0.059,0.079 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.048,-0.196,0.052 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.088,0.041 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.03,-0.163,0.076 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.003,-0.054,0.057 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.06,0.007,0.113 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.347,0.213,0.475 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.34,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.341,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.136,-0.246,-0.047 @@ -262,13 +262,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.126,-0.218,-0.055 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.12,-0.184,-0.061 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.213,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.213,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.102,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.102,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.115,-0.272,0.01 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.073,-0.221,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.095,-0.249,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.061,-0.173,0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.064,-0.128,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.728,-1.165,-0.439 @@ -279,12 +279,12 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.62,-1.022,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.61,-0.988,-0.356 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.607,-1.014,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.576,-0.957,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.515,-0.863,-0.255 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.515,-0.863,-0.255 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.604,-0.954,-0.348 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.796,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.842,-0.375 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.526,-0.95,-0.247 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.53,-0.906,-0.271 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv index dc39ae64911510a94dec736493678457cd0a9ecc..3453917ce12733cfb7d61ac09f31513acd2d1aee 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.06,0.02,0.102 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.056,-0.002,0.12 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.078,0.01,0.141 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.043,0.178 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.12,0.047,0.19 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.089,0.016,0.164 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.03,0.172 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.103,0.049,0.166 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.116,0.049,0.192 -TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.122,0.04,0.196 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.081,0.238 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.337,0.57 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.006,-0.068,0.068 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.065,0.002,0.142 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.061,0.015,0.106 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.083,0.008,0.169 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.112,0.027,0.218 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.03,0.133 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,0.919,0.125,0.05,0.202 +TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.03,0.133 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.039,0.146 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.105,0.041,0.183 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,0.039,0.202 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.07,0.171 -TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.127,0.055,0.196 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.088,0.23 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.458,0.347,0.56 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.059,-0.161,0.019 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.004,-0.047,0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.001,-0.102,0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.03,0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.054,0.018,0.088 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.024,-0.148,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.069,-0.007,0.141 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.024,-0.148,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.036,-0.093,0.128 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.047,-0.004,0.089 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.051,0.008,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,-0.05,0.147 -Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.07,-0.103,0.189 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.031,0.179 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.424,0.268,0.551 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.05,-0.132,0.024 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.012,-0.023,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.008,-0.067,0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.005,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.062,0.019,0.101 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.113,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.076,0.004,0.152 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.113,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.043,-0.062,0.119 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.054,0.023,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.058,0.023,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.072,-0.015,0.154 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.078,-0.064,0.184 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.113,0.048,0.183 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.428,0.293,0.546 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.063,-0.147,0.008 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.0,-0.036,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.004,-0.07,0.045 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.026,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.05,0.004,0.092 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.121,0.107 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.064,0.003,0.132 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.121,0.107 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.07,0.111 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.042,0.019,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.046,0.006,0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.06,-0.02,0.135 -Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.074,0.17 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.161 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.421,0.285,0.539 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.063,-0.114,-0.021 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.004,-0.057,0.046 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.029,0.058 TiRex,citras-fm,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,0.008,0.096 -TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.099,0.09 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,0.009,0.124 +TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.099,0.09 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.059,0.112 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.042,0.006,0.084 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.084 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.009,0.128 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.055,0.161 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.167 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.287,0.546 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.059,-0.136,0.002 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.004,-0.048,0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.054,0.089 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.054,-0.017,0.137 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.024,-0.06,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.068,0.015,0.122 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.024,-0.06,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.035,-0.049,0.113 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.046,0.011,0.091 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.05,-0.027,0.127 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.041,0.091 -Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.07,-0.032,0.161 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.063,0.147 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.423,0.3,0.539 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.084,-0.164,-0.01 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.062,0.028 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.098,0.052 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.248,0.75,0.031,-0.013,0.075 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.142,0.096 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.046,-0.028,0.132 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.142,0.096 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.089,0.095 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.167,0.833,0.024,-0.03,0.088 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.028,-0.008,0.061 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.415,0.917,0.042,-0.047,0.135 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.082,0.141 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.014,0.167 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.281,0.527 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.119,-0.217,-0.044 @@ -144,31 +144,14 @@ citras-fm,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.107,-0.008 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.057,-0.159,0.017 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.752,-0.032,-0.081,0.013 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.031,-0.207,0.066 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.015,-0.06,0.087 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.031,-0.207,0.066 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.156,0.092 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.008,-0.072,0.05 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.004,-0.039,0.044 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.103,0.102 -citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.145,0.124 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.02,0.134 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.39,0.236,0.523 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.085,-0.16,0.002 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.091,-0.154,-0.031 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.025,-0.134,0.129 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.134,0.102 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.119,0.108 -FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.099,0.09 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.025,-0.101,0.057 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.106,0.124 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.03,-0.07,0.171 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.045,-0.064,0.156 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.012,-0.07,0.076 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.07,0.156 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.039,0.119 -FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.025,0.119 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.083,-0.022,0.187 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.409,0.289,0.52 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.234,-0.049 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.081,0.5,-0.143,-0.253,-0.052 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.074,-0.164,0.007 @@ -178,14 +161,31 @@ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.142,-0.009 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.073,-0.139,-0.015 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.048,-0.153,0.028 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.016,-0.096,0.057 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.047,-0.184,0.06 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.047,-0.184,0.06 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.035,-0.158,0.074 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.024,-0.087,0.032 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.113,0.05 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.072,0.047 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.131,0.109 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.04,0.003,0.076 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.237,0.506 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.085,-0.16,0.002 +FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.091,-0.154,-0.031 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.025,-0.134,0.129 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.134,0.102 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.119,0.108 +FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.099,0.09 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.025,-0.101,0.057 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.106,0.124 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.03,-0.07,0.171 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.045,-0.064,0.156 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.012,-0.07,0.076 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.023,-0.071,0.138 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.07,0.156 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.039,0.119 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.083,-0.022,0.187 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.409,0.289,0.52 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.098,-0.197,-0.016 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.171,-0.041 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.037,-0.147,0.085 @@ -195,14 +195,31 @@ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.126,0.056 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.037,-0.127,0.046 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.013,-0.105,0.082 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.101,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.012,-0.082,0.066 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.034,-0.08,0.137 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.012,-0.082,0.066 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.011,-0.086,0.106 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.08,0.115 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.03,-0.068,0.123 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.043,0.12 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.072,-0.043,0.173 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.302,0.502 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.11,-0.207,-0.031 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.117,-0.223,-0.042 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.049,-0.098,0.004 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.057,-0.101,-0.023 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.044,-0.075,-0.019 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.044,-0.092,-0.006 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.048,-0.1,-0.011 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.833,-0.024,-0.097,0.029 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.008,-0.053,0.067 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.023,-0.033,0.08 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.023,-0.16,0.066 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.011,-0.119,0.079 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.004,-0.065,0.063 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.045,0.073 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.062,0.017,0.105 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.395,0.252,0.521 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.115,-0.199,-0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.122,-0.252,-0.04 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.054,-0.101,-0.008 @@ -212,12 +229,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.053,-0.146,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.029,-0.064,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.004,-0.046,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.185,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.185,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.13,0.074 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.004,-0.068,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.091,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.12,0.113 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.015,0.143 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.393,0.257,0.517 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.238,-0.051 @@ -229,31 +246,14 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.147,0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.101,-0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.585,-0.044,-0.156,0.045 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.114,0.093 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.135,0.037 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.049,0.067 +Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.135,0.037 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.031,-0.14,0.063 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.019,-0.079,0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.015,-0.124,0.083 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.006,-0.12,0.107 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.044,0.007,0.091 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.384,0.244,0.506 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.139,-0.244,-0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.145,-0.244,-0.059 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.076,-0.232,0.093 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.084,-0.226,0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.205,0.069 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.192,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.075,-0.192,0.031 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.164,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.141,0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.135,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.122,0.116 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.136,0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.127,0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.006,-0.12,0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.038,-0.083,0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.283,0.482 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.312,-0.088 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.19,-0.299,-0.096 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.219,-0.032 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.2,-0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.172,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.092,-0.2,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.155,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.091,-0.23,0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.083,-0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.091,-0.23,0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.078,-0.208,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.066,-0.117,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.167,0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.046,-0.101,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.184,0.077 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.48 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.836,-1.325,-0.508 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.204,-0.402 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.734,-1.169,-0.429 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.694,-1.116,-0.391 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.641,-1.097,-0.31 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.692,-1.082,-0.407 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.616,-1.022,-0.311 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.692,-1.082,-0.407 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-1.007,-0.432 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.654,-1.088,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.647,-1.071,-0.346 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.622,-1.024,-0.323 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.931,-0.394 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.551,-0.924,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv index f341bd0fea6ac210fc674eacb71944b89a46aa1a..0e055d3fee155ce20020c80fe2d796ca0af9368c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.1025641025641,37.89578916031996,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.2051282051282,35.398351985937104,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.35897435897435,27.64063711794009,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.23076923076923,27.403361161284135,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.58974358974363,34.00489490838103,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,73.33333333333331,32.34547171146631,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,72.05128205128204,27.247610226794162,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.46153846153845,29.70839682432842,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,66.15384615384615,29.724948642495818,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.461538461538446,25.111125954829205,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.92307692307693,29.948417313219487,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.384615384615394,25.222517255488896,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,59.999999999999986,24.470577229456005,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.05128205128205,24.79493112223894,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,56.153846153846146,24.74097538777954,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.61538461538461,23.276855703905884,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.53846153846153,21.834602126597346,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,51.53846153846153,25.973733886600225,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.410256410256416,22.17352687153604,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,45.64102564102566,24.332626654075018,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,40.19230769230769,20.515410969632153,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -PatchTST,37.69230769230768,18.853426287300014,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,36.66666666666666,17.15191259995018,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,33.974358974358964,14.854815383201469,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,25.448717948717942,4.447406228151163,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoARIMA,23.782051282051285,2.212327431466543,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -Seasonal Naive,20.12820512820512,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,18.205128205128204,1.1815956958414753,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,14.487179487179484,-34.97549884253801,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.6025641025641,-44.773921203129,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.615384615384615,-52.29912347479908,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.49875930521092,37.89578916031996,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.25806451612904,35.398351985937104,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,80.27295285359803,35.73606514099753,0.0,8.57529421037312,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,73.20099255583126,27.64063711794009,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.95285359801488,27.403361161284135,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.45657568238212,32.34547171146631,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.33250620347394,34.00489490838103,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,70.71960297766749,27.247610226794162,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,66.87344913151365,29.70839682432842,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,64.51612903225806,29.724948642495818,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,62.28287841191068,25.111125954829205,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.7940446650124,29.948417313219487,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.057071960297755,25.222517255488896,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,58.80893300248139,24.470577229456005,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.83126550868486,24.79493112223894,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.08684863523573,24.74097538777954,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.349875930521094,23.276855703905884,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Sundial-Base,50.62034739454094,25.973733886600225,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.37220843672456,21.834602126597346,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.0,22.17352687153604,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,44.66501240694789,24.332626654075018,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,39.143920595533494,20.515410969632153,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +PatchTST,36.72456575682382,18.853426287300014,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,35.60794044665012,17.15191259995018,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,33.00248138957816,14.854815383201469,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,24.875930521091814,4.447406228151163,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,23.26302729528536,2.212327431466543,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +Seasonal Naive,19.602977667493796,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,17.617866004962778,1.1815956958414753,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,14.267990074441686,-34.97549884253801,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.352357320099255,-44.773921203129,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.590570719602978,-52.29912347479908,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 36c4aeec1db7a85a691002400437978cdc4f17ca..461feadd2e2058e003539eca7b50b3c9631cc060 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,87.05128205128204,45.939225989105516,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.84615384615385,43.696037899366445,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.82051282051282,40.955040522328076,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.69230769230771,37.19233498724061,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.05128205128204,36.942973998246586,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,75.76923076923079,42.12648526492014,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.61538461538463,36.69282240000613,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.20512820512822,34.44791484004565,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TS-ICL,67.94871794871796,38.54265308034851,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,67.05128205128206,37.06311174153901,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.25641025641026,38.63838178079146,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,64.87179487179488,34.72199927167168,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,61.66666666666667,33.040194549839576,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -FlowState,57.179487179487175,32.4100685185642,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.51282051282052,32.881689430291104,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.1025641025641,31.52282472603488,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.84615384615385,31.473352334477845,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.564102564102555,31.112045696230428,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,50.25641025641027,32.085719324643314,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,41.79487179487179,28.52842311909273,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -DeepAR,40.96153846153846,26.66949092254881,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -PatchTST,40.51282051282051,25.60679591439182,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,26.858974358974358,9.139931178596383,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -Stat. Ensemble,24.807692307692307,6.196332966589502,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -CatBoost,23.589743589743584,8.874064288365757,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,20.512820512820504,6.34745033907752,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.17948717948718,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,16.410256410256405,-30.210229740669558,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,14.230769230769228,-10.643501874241924,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.012820512820513,-60.57154490567112,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.8205128205128207,-67.3016518958006,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.35235732009924,45.939225989105516,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.12655086848636,43.696037899366445,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,82.13399503722084,43.60305342081109,0.0,8.57529421037312,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.67493796526054,40.955040522328076,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.55086848635236,37.19233498724061,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.68238213399503,36.942973998246586,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,74.56575682382133,42.12648526492014,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.44913151364764,36.69282240000613,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,66.62531017369727,34.44791484004565,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.12903225806451,38.54265308034851,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,65.63275434243177,37.06311174153901,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.01985111662532,38.63838178079146,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,63.52357320099256,34.72199927167168,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,60.42183622828785,33.040194549839576,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +FlowState,55.83126550868486,32.4100685185642,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,54.09429280397022,32.881689430291104,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.60545905707197,31.473352334477845,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.48138957816377,31.52282472603488,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.11662531017369,31.112045696230428,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,49.13151364764268,32.085719324643314,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.446650124069485,28.52842311909273,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +DeepAR,39.88833746898263,26.66949092254881,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +PatchTST,39.454094292803966,25.60679591439182,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,26.116625310173696,9.139931178596383,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +Stat. Ensemble,24.25558312655087,6.196332966589502,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +CatBoost,22.8287841191067,8.874064288365757,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,19.851116625310173,6.34745033907752,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.625310173697272,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,16.129032258064516,-30.210229740669558,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,13.77171215880893,-10.643501874241924,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.754342431761787,-60.57154490567112,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.729528535980149,-67.3016518958006,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 122182b66b2c5ff5b0014a68bffa5a1a72dd3479..ddb048c0503d77bdcdd66b4d8bb204ab06599c04 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,81.41025641025641,39.30237020429301,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.76923076923077,37.557901536977845,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,73.33333333333333,31.032868019309202,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.0769230769231,30.705322754813878,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.89743589743588,30.308651726585033,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,69.87179487179488,34.05152672280454,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,68.71794871794872,34.43124058342566,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.33333333333334,34.61666637481101,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,65.89743589743588,31.682561212984318,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.6923076923077,28.863859566477203,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,59.48717948717949,27.322662354204475,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.820512820512825,30.36322876478197,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,57.43589743589743,26.65794953458317,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.48717948717948,26.606852502371968,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.84615384615385,25.99988075597758,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -FlowState,51.153846153846146,26.89142712985859,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Sundial-Base,49.871794871794876,28.265544600882,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.58974358974359,24.207524581618266,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,48.46153846153847,26.59412613673687,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,46.538461538461526,23.82250300845572,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,41.79487179487181,20.65325504182872,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,39.42307692307694,21.82047445619971,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -LightGBM,38.71794871794872,20.63835609604817,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,37.17948717948717,20.174610152005823,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,31.858974358974358,8.430993583997726,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoARIMA,23.01282051282051,3.8316800542679386,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoETS,21.666666666666668,-24.06197476117884,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.217948717948715,-29.595393529303713,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.25641025641026,4.200265666572001,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.589743589743584,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.589743589743591,-36.91555319026642,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,80.89330024813896,39.30237020429301,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.65260545905709,37.557901536977845,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.66749379652606,38.02726402289019,0.0,8.57529421037312,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.33250620347394,31.032868019309202,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,71.96029776674938,30.705322754813878,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.72704714640197,30.308651726585033,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,68.4863523573201,34.05152672280454,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,67.86600496277916,34.43124058342566,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.24565756823822,34.61666637481101,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.39205955334988,31.682561212984318,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.662531017369716,28.863859566477203,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,58.31265508684863,27.322662354204475,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.82382133995038,30.36322876478197,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,56.203473945409435,26.65794953458317,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.349875930521094,26.606852502371968,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.605459057071954,25.99988075597758,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +FlowState,50.12406947890818,26.89142712985859,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Sundial-Base,49.131513647642684,28.265544600882,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TFT,47.64267990074442,26.59412613673687,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,47.394540942928046,24.207524581618266,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,45.6575682382134,23.82250300845572,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,40.94292803970224,20.65325504182872,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,38.52357320099256,21.82047445619971,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +LightGBM,37.96526054590571,20.63835609604817,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,36.22828784119106,20.174610152005823,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.079404466501238,8.430993583997726,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,22.518610421836225,3.8316800542679386,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoETS,21.33995037220844,-24.06197476117884,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.905707196029777,-29.595393529303713,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,19.727047146401983,4.200265666572001,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.11414392059553,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.523573200992555,-36.91555319026642,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 5c3cfc022ada81ab9e8f963c217e3a134b99e098..5d0cfca2d0e7aad9cf9fbb3f8e455259cc1dc1c2 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,83.71794871794872,45.99295404026385,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,83.5897435897436,47.66386559962355,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.74358974358974,40.95974538328001,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.43589743589745,40.431908864449696,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.92307692307693,40.25120913531922,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.12820512820511,43.430525812131435,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.56410256410255,43.103980194426214,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,71.92307692307693,43.02532257188423,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.43589743589743,38.501099243397576,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,66.53846153846153,39.746283079915145,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.8974358974359,37.015923795326046,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.846153846153854,39.634990899313024,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,59.87179487179487,35.74711028493935,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -FlowState,55.25641025641026,35.238708603025636,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.25641025641025,35.346534587472554,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.23076923076924,34.54029716114274,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.05128205128206,33.916952411684484,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.53846153846155,33.68160197994784,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TFT,50.76923076923079,34.858358688960024,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,42.051282051282044,28.17762114987711,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.051282051282044,31.420585268607393,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -DeepAR,39.93589743589743,28.82551876839535,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 -LightGBM,27.435897435897434,13.804281918946282,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,26.987179487179493,11.001763956139254,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -AutoARIMA,25.44871794871795,10.956865003323434,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 -CatBoost,24.487179487179482,13.30060154143199,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.384615384615383,-24.269495322854407,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.128205128205128,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,14.615384615384613,-4.896832310667398,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.653846153846153,-50.976730476610335,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.102564102564102,-57.44553171159505,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.00248138957818,47.66386559962355,0.0,30.871185062890923,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.63027295285359,45.99295404026385,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,81.14143920595534,46.08070495651517,0.0,8.57529421037312,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.53598014888338,40.95974538328001,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.30272952853598,40.431908864449696,0.0,1.5456846913541669,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.68238213399503,40.25120913531922,0.0,6.4650776003125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.19354838709677,43.430525812131435,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,71.46401985111662,43.103980194426214,0.0,822.0435218492969,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,70.34739454094291,43.02532257188423,0.0,3.3364023637841456,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.25310173697271,38.501099243397576,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.88833746898263,39.746283079915145,0.0,7.748614246350674,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.39205955334987,37.015923795326046,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.531017369727046,39.634990899313024,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,58.56079404466501,35.74711028493935,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +FlowState,54.09429280397022,35.238708603025636,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.97022332506204,35.346534587472554,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.853598014888334,34.54029716114274,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.86848635235732,33.916952411684484,0.0,0.7024468823376624,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.24813895781638,33.68160197994784,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,49.75186104218363,34.858358688960024,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,41.06699751861042,28.17762114987711,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.94292803970223,31.420585268607393,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +DeepAR,38.89578163771712,28.82551876839535,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +LightGBM,26.550868486352353,13.804281918946282,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,26.240694789081886,11.001763956139254,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,24.751861042183624,10.956865003323434,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +CatBoost,23.69727047146402,13.30060154143199,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,15.012406947890817,-24.269495322854407,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.640198511166252,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,14.1439205955335,-4.896832310667398,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.37468982630273,-50.976730476610335,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.970223325062035,-57.44553171159505,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv index 75d6fb172f0c5bf9bfb4b5c6271b898aa4eb0a86..059609f96d1c095b806c63b00b69dec7d775cc08 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.039,-0.007,0.085 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.034,-0.015,0.077 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.142,0.051,0.223 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.145,0.055,0.224 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.059,0.014,0.103 @@ -8,15 +9,15 @@ TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.082,0.022,0.14 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.146,0.06,0.229 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.116,0.052,0.18 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.116,0.066,0.162 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.113,0.052,0.174 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.171,0.083,0.249 -TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.178,0.093,0.254 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.113,0.052,0.174 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.169,0.083,0.246 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.175,0.088,0.252 +TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.178,0.093,0.254 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.174,0.091,0.248 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.379,0.294,0.455 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.04,-0.093,0.007 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.005,-0.031,0.018 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.107,0.04,0.174 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.11,0.043,0.177 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.021,-0.014,0.058 @@ -24,15 +25,31 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,0.001,0.092 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.112,0.04,0.182 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.081,0.038,0.119 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.081,0.04,0.122 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.078,0.038,0.118 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.137,0.066,0.203 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.145,0.072,0.212 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.078,0.038,0.118 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.136,0.072,0.201 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.142,0.073,0.202 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.145,0.072,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.202 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.354,0.278,0.422 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.035,-0.083,0.014 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.005,-0.018,0.03 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.112,0.028,0.19 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.115,0.033,0.193 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.026,-0.011,0.061 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.05,0.006,0.094 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.117,0.034,0.195 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.086,0.037,0.131 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.086,0.039,0.131 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.142,0.062,0.217 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.083,0.037,0.125 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.141,0.064,0.214 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.149,0.067,0.228 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.145,0.072,0.217 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.357,0.273,0.431 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.165,-0.286,-0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.12,-0.211,-0.042 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.126,-0.234,-0.029 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.654,0.003,-0.004,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.096,-0.205,0.001 @@ -40,15 +57,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.07,-0.162,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.005,-0.008,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.029,-0.097,0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.03,-0.103,0.038 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.033,-0.13,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.034,0.011,0.059 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.042,0.012,0.074 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.033,-0.13,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.032,0.02,0.046 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.039,0.004,0.069 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.042,0.012,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.038,0.007,0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.276,0.21,0.34 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.169,-0.289,-0.058 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.124,-0.214,-0.045 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.13,-0.239,-0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.346,0.692,-0.003,-0.011,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.1,-0.208,-0.003 @@ -56,15 +73,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.073,-0.162,-0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.002,-0.013,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.033,-0.098,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.033,-0.106,0.033 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.036,-0.133,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.031,0.007,0.055 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.039,0.01,0.071 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.036,-0.133,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.029,0.016,0.042 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.035,-0.0,0.067 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.039,0.01,0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.035,0.005,0.062 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.274,0.211,0.335 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.063,-0.114,-0.015 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.022,-0.062,0.013 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.027,-0.065,0.011 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.088,-0.001,0.17 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.091,0.003,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -72,15 +89,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.025,-0.029,0.08 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.002,0.175 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,0.003,0.113 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.061,0.009,0.116 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.058,0.011,0.101 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.119,0.032,0.197 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.126,0.038,0.206 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.058,0.011,0.101 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.117,0.034,0.194 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.123,0.036,0.198 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.126,0.038,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.122,0.043,0.198 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.34,0.265,0.41 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.089,-0.163,-0.022 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.101,-0.001 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.103,-0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.065,-0.004,0.139 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.068,0.001,0.14 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.025,-0.087,0.028 @@ -88,15 +105,15 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.07,-0.001,0.147 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.038,-0.02,0.091 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.037,-0.012,0.084 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.034,-0.02,0.085 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.097,0.031,0.165 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.104,0.032,0.177 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.034,-0.02,0.085 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.095,0.029,0.163 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.101,0.03,0.169 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.104,0.032,0.177 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.1,0.031,0.175 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.323,0.243,0.395 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.171,-0.297,-0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.126,-0.222,-0.042 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.132,-0.242,-0.035 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.005,-0.019,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.002,-0.016,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.102,-0.213,-0.002 @@ -104,15 +121,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.075,-0.172,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.035,-0.101,0.016 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.035,-0.11,0.029 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.039,-0.142,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.029,0.011,0.048 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.037,0.012,0.062 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.039,-0.142,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.027,0.014,0.041 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.033,0.002,0.062 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.037,0.012,0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.576,0.885,0.033,0.004,0.06 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.272,0.206,0.336 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.132,-0.22,-0.055 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.088,-0.135,-0.039 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.094,-0.151,-0.038 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.029,-0.025,0.088 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.032,-0.021,0.089 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.065,-0.127,-0.003 @@ -120,15 +137,15 @@ citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.039,-0.1,0.019 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.034,-0.016,0.091 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.0,-0.048,0.048 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.003,-0.052,0.044 citras-fm,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,0.015,0.112 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.069,0.02,0.123 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.003,-0.052,0.044 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.06,0.015,0.113 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.066,0.023,0.111 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.069,0.02,0.123 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.065,0.024,0.112 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.297,0.224,0.36 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.132,-0.193,-0.071 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.088,-0.14,-0.041 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.094,-0.151,-0.041 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.029,-0.039,0.094 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.032,-0.034,0.096 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.065,-0.131,-0.009 @@ -136,31 +153,15 @@ TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.039,-0.091,0.012 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.034,-0.029,0.099 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.0,-0.051,0.046 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.003,-0.066,0.055 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.062,-0.002,0.125 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.07,0.006,0.132 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.003,-0.066,0.055 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.06,0.002,0.121 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.654,0.5,0.808,0.066,0.0,0.129 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.07,0.006,0.132 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.066,-0.001,0.132 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.297,0.215,0.37 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.128,-0.21,-0.055 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.084,-0.133,-0.039 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.032,-0.05,0.115 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.035,-0.043,0.117 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.061,-0.112,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.035,-0.093,0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.037,-0.045,0.124 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.003,-0.046,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.003,-0.059,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.065,-0.014,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.073,-0.003,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.063,-0.016,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.069,-0.011,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.069,0.002,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.299,0.216,0.373 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.206,-0.332,-0.091 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.159,-0.255,-0.07 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.165,-0.278,-0.066 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.035,-0.063,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.032,-0.059,-0.007 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.135,-0.246,-0.034 @@ -168,31 +169,31 @@ TiRex,TiRex-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.107,-0.198,-0.032 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.029,-0.051,-0.011 TiRex,citras-fm,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.065,-0.126,-0.015 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.066,-0.143,0.002 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.069,-0.171,0.013 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.519,0.327,0.731,0.008,-0.015,0.033 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.069,-0.171,0.013 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.001,-0.024,0.017 -TiRex,FlowState,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.005,-0.022,0.033 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.519,0.327,0.731,0.008,-0.015,0.033 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.558,0.385,0.731,0.004,-0.021,0.032 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.251,0.191,0.308 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.216,-0.34,-0.103 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.169,-0.269,-0.077 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.044,-0.08,-0.012 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.04,-0.076,-0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.144,-0.259,-0.04 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.116,-0.214,-0.033 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.038,-0.066,-0.012 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.075,-0.14,-0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.075,-0.152,-0.006 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.078,-0.179,0.003 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.481,0.269,0.673,-0.009,-0.034,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.01,-0.044,0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.004,-0.035,0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.769,-0.004,-0.033,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.245,0.182,0.306 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.128,-0.21,-0.055 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.084,-0.133,-0.039 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.09,-0.143,-0.038 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.032,-0.05,0.115 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.035,-0.043,0.117 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.061,-0.112,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.035,-0.093,0.02 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.037,-0.045,0.124 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.003,-0.046,0.049 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.003,-0.059,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.065,-0.014,0.146 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.063,-0.016,0.142 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.073,-0.003,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.069,0.002,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.299,0.216,0.373 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.204,-0.326,-0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.158,-0.252,-0.077 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.164,-0.272,-0.069 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.033,-0.048,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.03,-0.044,-0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.133,-0.241,-0.035 @@ -200,31 +201,31 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.105,-0.195,-0.029 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.028,-0.043,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.064,-0.128,-0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.064,-0.138,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.067,-0.166,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.001,-0.018,0.024 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.01,-0.02,0.042 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.067,-0.166,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.423,0.268,0.615,0.006,-0.028,0.038 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.01,-0.02,0.042 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.006,-0.025,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.252,0.188,0.315 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.212,-0.337,-0.097 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.165,-0.253,-0.079 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.04,-0.074,-0.004 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.037,-0.071,0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.14,-0.246,-0.037 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.112,-0.204,-0.031 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.034,-0.066,-0.002 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.071,-0.125,-0.024 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.5,-0.071,-0.149,-0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.074,-0.167,0.011 -FlowState,TiRex,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.005,-0.034,0.022 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.004,-0.027,0.034 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.732,-0.006,-0.039,0.027 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.001,-0.029,0.034 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.247,0.177,0.309 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.216,-0.34,-0.103 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.169,-0.269,-0.077 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.175,-0.296,-0.072 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.044,-0.08,-0.012 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.04,-0.076,-0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.144,-0.259,-0.04 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.116,-0.214,-0.033 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.038,-0.066,-0.012 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.075,-0.14,-0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.075,-0.152,-0.006 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.481,0.269,0.673,-0.009,-0.034,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.078,-0.179,0.003 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.01,-0.044,0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.769,-0.004,-0.033,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.245,0.182,0.306 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.211,-0.33,-0.101 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.164,-0.254,-0.085 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.17,-0.277,-0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.039,-0.071,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.036,-0.066,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.14,-0.248,-0.045 @@ -232,15 +233,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.112,-0.213,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.424,-0.034,-0.064,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.07,-0.126,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.07,-0.153,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.074,-0.167,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.615,-0.004,-0.034,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.231,0.596,0.004,-0.025,0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.074,-0.167,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.006,-0.037,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.001,-0.035,0.028 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.231,0.596,0.004,-0.025,0.032 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.248,0.188,0.306 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.61,-0.835,-0.417 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.548,-0.729,-0.384 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.556,-0.758,-0.375 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.382,-0.514,-0.266 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.377,-0.504,-0.267 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.515,-0.695,-0.36 @@ -248,10 +249,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.478,-0.652,-0.321 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.375,-0.505,-0.259 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.423,-0.563,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.423,-0.586,-0.273 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.596,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.335,-0.445,-0.237 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.324,-0.441,-0.223 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.596,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.337,-0.46,-0.231 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.329,-0.447,-0.215 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.324,-0.441,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.33,-0.44,-0.232 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv index 99588ad69fc1e9949119c38b1b1ccdd7a90f3756..ca26ee3e4a93ae9b92df5dda36803eeb5a1d2a69 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.04,-0.003,0.084 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.041,-0.004,0.085 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.139,0.048,0.219 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.084,0.024,0.144 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.143,0.052,0.223 @@ -17,6 +18,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.195,0.112,0.268 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.379,0.528 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.041,-0.092,0.003 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.002,-0.019,0.02 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.104,0.037,0.17 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.046,0.003,0.094 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.107,0.041,0.173 @@ -31,8 +33,26 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.159,0.083,0.225 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.167,0.099,0.227 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.161,0.096,0.219 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.368,0.497 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.043,-0.093,0.004 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.002,-0.021,0.019 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.102,0.023,0.179 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,0.003,0.087 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.106,0.026,0.183 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.026,-0.012,0.064 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.109,0.031,0.184 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.14,0.062,0.211 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.082,0.043,0.121 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.104,0.051,0.149 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.081,0.037,0.121 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.136,0.061,0.211 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.158,0.072,0.234 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.166,0.09,0.234 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.16,0.087,0.23 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.364,0.501 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.162,-0.28,-0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.116,-0.204,-0.038 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.114,-0.219,-0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.064,-0.157,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.692,0.004,-0.003,0.012 @@ -49,6 +69,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.064,0.029,0.097 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.312,0.433 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.092,-0.168,-0.025 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.049,-0.104,-0.003 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.096,-0.003 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.06,-0.009,0.136 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.064,-0.007,0.139 @@ -65,6 +86,7 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.12,0.05,0.194 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.334,0.479 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.166,-0.286,-0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.12,-0.209,-0.043 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.118,-0.224,-0.027 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.462,0.308,0.654,-0.004,-0.012,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.162,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -81,6 +103,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.061,0.028,0.091 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.312,0.43 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.071,-0.124,-0.022 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.028,-0.072,0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.026,-0.069,0.012 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.079,-0.015,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.02,-0.04,0.08 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.082,-0.008,0.165 @@ -97,6 +120,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.138,0.059,0.21 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.35,0.49 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.171,-0.296,-0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.124,-0.216,-0.043 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.123,-0.226,-0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.008,-0.02,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.072,-0.172,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.004,-0.015,0.008 @@ -113,6 +137,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.057,0.023,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.309,0.428 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.213,-0.336,-0.096 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.164,-0.257,-0.078 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.162,-0.267,-0.067 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.044,-0.075,-0.016 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.11,-0.204,-0.034 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.04,-0.069,-0.013 @@ -129,6 +154,7 @@ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.577,0.885,0.023,-0.005,0.052 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.286,0.404 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.137,-0.199,-0.079 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.092,-0.136,-0.051 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.09,-0.138,-0.045 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.021,-0.045,0.085 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.269,0.077,0.462,-0.041,-0.092,0.008 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.025,-0.038,0.087 @@ -145,6 +171,7 @@ TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.084,0.02,0.148 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.316,0.455 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.164,-0.259,-0.08 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.118,-0.17,-0.063 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.116,-0.175,-0.054 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.002,-0.058,0.06 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.066,-0.131,-0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.002,-0.053,0.065 @@ -161,6 +188,7 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.062,0.024,0.108 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.307,0.432 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.135,-0.215,-0.062 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.09,-0.136,-0.046 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.088,-0.138,-0.038 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.023,-0.059,0.107 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.039,-0.095,0.015 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.027,-0.051,0.111 @@ -177,6 +205,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.086,0.022,0.16 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.308,0.462 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.207,-0.331,-0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.159,-0.254,-0.077 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.157,-0.267,-0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.039,-0.057,-0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.106,-0.198,-0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.035,-0.05,-0.021 @@ -193,6 +222,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.027,-0.009,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.288,0.407 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.239,-0.363,-0.114 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.189,-0.291,-0.09 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.187,-0.306,-0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.066,-0.106,-0.029 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.134,-0.24,-0.046 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.062,-0.102,-0.025 @@ -209,6 +239,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.002,-0.028,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.269,0.394 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.25,-0.381,-0.126 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.2,-0.294,-0.11 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.198,-0.306,-0.098 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.076,-0.116,-0.04 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.145,-0.245,-0.061 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.072,-0.113,-0.036 @@ -225,6 +256,7 @@ FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.007,-0.041,0.029 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.324,0.259,0.389 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.242,-0.365,-0.126 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.192,-0.28,-0.106 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.19,-0.299,-0.096 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.069,-0.108,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.064,-0.101,-0.028 @@ -241,6 +273,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.273,0.388 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.117,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-0.987,-0.581 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.002,-0.571 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.765,-0.454 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.694,-0.92,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.586,-0.754,-0.453 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv index a80a781ded139cc08ee5bcb8561160a8dafda3d0..cce055003a0d2c06e9dc65b30b4d486f0b531fec 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.028,-0.032,0.083 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.021,-0.049,0.08 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.124,0.031,0.209 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.12,0.026,0.205 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.129,0.04,0.212 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.08,0.017,0.136 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.074,-0.003,0.147 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.072,0.016,0.125 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.08,0.017,0.136 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.112,0.039,0.184 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.147,0.06,0.227 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.128,0.048,0.206 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.165,0.075,0.246 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.172,0.09,0.249 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.173,0.082,0.257 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.18,0.092,0.265 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.393,0.294,0.48 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.029,-0.091,0.031 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.008,-0.036,0.02 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.099,0.028,0.168 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.095,0.019,0.17 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.104,0.03,0.173 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.053,-0.002,0.103 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.048,0.002,0.096 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.045,-0.012,0.099 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.053,-0.002,0.103 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.086,0.041,0.13 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.122,0.054,0.188 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.103,0.035,0.178 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.141,0.074,0.204 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.149,0.081,0.219 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.156,0.089,0.221 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.282,0.449 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.021,-0.087,0.046 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.008,-0.021,0.035 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.106,0.02,0.191 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.101,0.013,0.187 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.111,0.026,0.194 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.055,0.006,0.102 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.052,-0.005,0.107 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.06,-0.002,0.113 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.093,0.04,0.141 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.129,0.048,0.206 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.11,0.043,0.176 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.147,0.067,0.222 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.615,0.923,0.155,0.069,0.235 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.156,0.078,0.233 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.38,0.281,0.459 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.142,-0.264,-0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.11,-0.202,-0.029 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.118,-0.236,-0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.005,-0.026,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.006,-0.007,0.018 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.051,-0.139,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.057,-0.158,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.06,-0.174,0.05 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.051,-0.139,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.014,-0.084,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.026,0.005,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.005,-0.109,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.047,0.019,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.055,0.019,0.099 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.056,0.014,0.105 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.064,0.026,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.307,0.221,0.386 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.136,-0.257,-0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.104,-0.204,-0.02 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.231,-0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.005,-0.012,0.025 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.01,-0.003,0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.046,-0.136,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.052,-0.153,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.055,-0.17,0.057 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.046,-0.136,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.01,-0.081,0.053 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.03,0.006,0.053 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.01,-0.1,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.051,0.016,0.094 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.06,0.02,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.06,0.011,0.118 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.068,0.029,0.113 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.31,0.223,0.392 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.148,-0.269,-0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.116,-0.209,-0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.125,-0.241,-0.027 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.006,-0.018,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.011,-0.027,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.057,-0.143,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.063,-0.16,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.346,0.692,-0.066,-0.174,0.041 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.057,-0.143,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.02,-0.088,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.02,0.002,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.001,-0.108,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.041,0.011,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.05,0.012,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.05,0.005,0.099 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.058,0.019,0.099 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.303,0.219,0.384 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.087,-0.158,-0.018 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.056,-0.114,0.002 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.048,-0.027,0.122 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.044,-0.035,0.12 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.054,-0.02,0.125 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.064,0.047 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.009,-0.061,0.04 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.035,-0.019,0.084 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.073,0.01,0.137 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.053,-0.008,0.111 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.018,0.163 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.101,0.029,0.168 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.101,0.027,0.173 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.109,0.035,0.176 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.341,0.266,0.408 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.08,-0.173,0.003 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.05,-0.106,-0.002 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.058,-0.114,-0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.054,-0.029,0.137 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.049,-0.035,0.133 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.059,-0.02,0.138 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.049,0.06 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.003,-0.078,0.069 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.049,0.06 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.04,-0.024,0.102 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.078,0.004,0.154 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.058,-0.019,0.139 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.098,0.027,0.167 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.106,0.033,0.182 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.107,0.025,0.193 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.114,0.041,0.183 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.344,0.247,0.425 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.077,-0.142,-0.016 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.047,-0.11,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.055,-0.119,0.005 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.056,-0.053,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.052,-0.061,0.145 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.654,0.062,-0.043,0.148 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.009,-0.042,0.058 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.003,-0.074,0.072 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.009,-0.042,0.058 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.043,-0.024,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.081,-0.016,0.164 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.061,-0.003,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.1,0.002,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.109,0.018,0.192 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.109,0.021,0.191 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.116,0.015,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.346,0.261,0.422 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.087,-0.158,-0.018 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.056,-0.114,0.002 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.064,-0.127,0.002 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.048,-0.027,0.122 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.044,-0.035,0.12 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.054,-0.02,0.125 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.064,0.047 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.009,-0.061,0.04 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.035,-0.019,0.084 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.073,0.01,0.137 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.053,-0.008,0.111 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.018,0.163 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.101,0.029,0.168 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.101,0.027,0.173 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.341,0.266,0.408 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.126,-0.225,-0.041 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.094,-0.149,-0.042 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.102,-0.165,-0.042 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.014,-0.044,0.078 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.009,-0.056,0.075 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.02,-0.039,0.081 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.036,-0.091,0.019 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.042,-0.114,0.024 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.045,-0.117,0.023 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.036,-0.091,0.019 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.04,-0.013,0.095 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.019,-0.043,0.08 citras-fm,TiRex,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.06,0.009,0.11 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.069,0.014,0.126 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.069,0.02,0.123 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.077,0.019,0.137 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.317,0.235,0.384 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.172,-0.294,-0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.139,-0.232,-0.057 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.148,-0.26,-0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.027,-0.046,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.031,-0.055,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.021,-0.039,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.079,-0.158,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.085,-0.181,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.088,-0.197,0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.079,-0.158,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.041,-0.105,0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.022,-0.126,0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.021,-0.012,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.03,-0.011,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.031,-0.011,0.077 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.039,-0.002,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.289,0.209,0.365 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.147,-0.26,-0.051 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.115,-0.216,-0.036 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.124,-0.213,-0.045 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.005,-0.112,0.098 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.01,-0.123,0.091 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.001,-0.103,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.056,-0.125,0.008 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.062,-0.161,0.018 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.065,-0.135,0.003 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.056,-0.125,0.008 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.019,-0.086,0.041 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.021,-0.076,0.112 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.042,-0.07,0.138 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.047,0.137 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.035,0.132 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.056,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.304,0.213,0.381 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.197,-0.326,-0.081 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.164,-0.256,-0.08 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.173,-0.285,-0.072 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.049,-0.085,-0.019 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.054,-0.104,-0.017 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.043,-0.084,-0.011 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.102,-0.195,-0.018 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.108,-0.201,-0.027 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.112,-0.233,-0.002 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.102,-0.195,-0.018 TiRex,citras-fm,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.022,-0.061,0.012 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.044,-0.161,0.065 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.01,-0.028,0.06 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.442,0.269,0.615,0.018,-0.013,0.051 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.273,0.184,0.352 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.208,-0.331,-0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.192,0.077,0.385,-0.183,-0.307,-0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.058,-0.11,-0.019 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.063,-0.122,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.052,-0.107,-0.012 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.112,-0.202,-0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.119,-0.222,-0.034 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.122,-0.238,-0.019 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.112,-0.202,-0.03 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.074,-0.144,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.031,-0.085,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.159,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.209,-0.346,-0.089 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.175,-0.28,-0.089 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.184,-0.304,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.059,-0.118,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.064,-0.133,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.053,-0.109,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.21,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.119,-0.24,-0.026 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.123,-0.236,-0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.21,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.074,-0.14,-0.02 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.032,-0.083,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.054,-0.152,0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.01,-0.064,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.731,0.008,-0.066,0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.183,0.339 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.219,-0.361,-0.101 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.185,-0.284,-0.098 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.068,-0.114,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.073,-0.128,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.062,-0.11,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.122,-0.214,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.129,-0.223,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.132,-0.26,-0.016 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.083,-0.159,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.04,-0.086,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.063,-0.195,0.053 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.558,0.385,0.731,-0.018,-0.054,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.596,-0.008,-0.073,0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.26,0.164,0.341 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.648,-0.922,-0.417 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.601,-0.814,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.614,-0.848,-0.392 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.443,-0.63,-0.284 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.45,-0.645,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.435,-0.623,-0.28 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.516,-0.69,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.525,-0.739,-0.328 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.529,-0.73,-0.353 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.516,-0.69,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.464,-0.622,-0.308 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.406,-0.574,-0.264 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.436,-0.616,-0.27 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.376,-0.544,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.513,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.351,-0.517,-0.196 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv index 73295792d3362336c2cf802103d6f73d0cf1c706..90ec7dfa33b3c55d42b6cd36d9346e7e9617ea57 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,11 +1,12 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.031,-0.026,0.085 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.029,-0.037,0.088 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.114,0.015,0.205 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.121,0.026,0.208 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.124,0.031,0.207 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.08,0.025,0.133 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.075,-0.001,0.149 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.08,0.025,0.133 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.081,0.022,0.139 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.149,0.057,0.234 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.169,0.077,0.251 @@ -17,11 +18,12 @@ TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.191,0.103,0.273 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.477,0.393,0.549 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.032,-0.092,0.025 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.002,-0.027,0.024 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.085,0.012,0.16 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.093,0.022,0.164 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.096,0.024,0.164 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.051,-0.003,0.106 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,-0.001,0.094 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.051,-0.003,0.106 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.052,-0.0,0.095 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.122,0.052,0.188 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.143,0.076,0.204 @@ -31,13 +33,31 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.159,0.086,0.224 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.166,0.098,0.224 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.23 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.384,0.522 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.03,-0.097,0.036 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.002,-0.024,0.026 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.087,-0.003,0.176 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.095,0.011,0.177 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.098,0.014,0.179 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.047,-0.001,0.095 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.615,0.385,0.77,0.052,-0.005,0.114 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.054,-0.003,0.1 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.123,0.042,0.2 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.144,0.066,0.215 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.105,0.052,0.153 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.107,0.047,0.165 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.615,0.924,0.161,0.073,0.238 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.167,0.089,0.234 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.166,0.089,0.241 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.38,0.524 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.128,-0.258,-0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.093,-0.19,-0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.095,-0.213,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.009,-0.011,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.012,-0.002,0.029 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.038,-0.155,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.044,-0.148,0.041 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.038,-0.155,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.036,-0.116,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.04,0.019,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.063,0.022,0.115 @@ -49,11 +69,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.087,0.036,0.138 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.333,0.481 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.138,-0.262,-0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.103,-0.196,-0.022 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.105,-0.215,-0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.009,-0.037,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.231,0.577,0.003,-0.012,0.018 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.047,-0.16,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.053,-0.156,0.03 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.047,-0.16,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.046,-0.128,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.031,0.014,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.054,0.021,0.09 @@ -65,11 +86,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.079,0.033,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.333,0.471 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.142,-0.261,-0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.106,-0.196,-0.025 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.108,-0.218,-0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.012,-0.03,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.615,0.423,0.769,-0.003,-0.018,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.05,-0.161,0.059 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.056,-0.158,0.027 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.05,-0.161,0.059 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.049,-0.127,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.028,0.011,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.051,0.016,0.092 @@ -79,29 +101,14 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.07,0.031,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.077,0.036,0.12 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.076,0.031,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.329,0.473 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.087,-0.153,-0.026 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.053,-0.119,0.003 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.036,-0.08,0.134 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.045,-0.071,0.138 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.048,-0.063,0.139 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.089,0.073 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.001,-0.057,0.052 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.075,-0.031,0.163 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.097,-0.002,0.184 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.654,0.499,0.808,0.056,-0.016,0.118 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.057,-0.009,0.113 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.114,0.023,0.198 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.121,0.019,0.206 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.12,0.034,0.196 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.357,0.498 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.081,-0.175,0.001 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.104,0.001 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.042,-0.043,0.129 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.05,-0.031,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.053,-0.028,0.137 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.078,0.082 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.078,0.082 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.007,-0.052,0.061 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.08,0.002,0.161 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.102,0.031,0.173 @@ -111,13 +118,31 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.12,0.044,0.196 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.126,0.052,0.194 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.125,0.045,0.209 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.355,0.506 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.087,-0.153,-0.026 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.053,-0.119,0.003 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.385,0.23,0.615,-0.055,-0.128,0.005 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.036,-0.08,0.134 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.045,-0.071,0.138 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.048,-0.063,0.139 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.089,0.073 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.001,-0.057,0.052 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.075,-0.031,0.163 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.097,-0.002,0.184 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.654,0.499,0.808,0.056,-0.016,0.118 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.057,-0.009,0.113 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.114,0.023,0.198 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.121,0.019,0.206 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.12,0.034,0.196 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.357,0.498 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.089,-0.161,-0.023 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.055,-0.105,0.0 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.057,-0.111,0.003 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.035,-0.04,0.104 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.044,-0.028,0.113 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.046,-0.024,0.113 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.001,-0.055,0.054 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.007,-0.064,0.05 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.001,-0.055,0.054 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.074,0.006,0.139 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.095,0.022,0.169 @@ -129,11 +154,12 @@ TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.119,0.048,0.187 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.361,0.492 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.175,-0.306,-0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.139,-0.231,-0.055 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.141,-0.251,-0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.042,-0.07,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.032,-0.052,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.029,-0.047,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.081,-0.195,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.087,-0.192,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.081,-0.195,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.079,-0.161,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.024,-0.012,0.064 @@ -145,11 +171,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.049,0.002,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.315,0.453 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.203,-0.335,-0.084 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.166,-0.256,-0.083 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.168,-0.273,-0.071 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.067,-0.129,-0.023 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.057,-0.099,-0.021 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.054,-0.102,-0.016 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.107,-0.225,0.002 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.113,-0.209,-0.032 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.107,-0.225,0.002 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.105,-0.203,-0.023 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.024,-0.068,0.012 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -161,11 +188,12 @@ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.712,0.538,0.865,0.026,-0.018,0.077 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.299,0.439 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.151,-0.259,-0.059 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.269,-0.116,-0.171,-0.061 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.117,-0.18,-0.055 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.021,-0.093,0.051 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.012,-0.071,0.053 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.008,-0.073,0.055 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.501,-0.059,-0.134,0.015 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.065,-0.138,0.001 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.346,0.192,0.501,-0.059,-0.134,0.015 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.058,-0.118,-0.003 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.02,-0.04,0.083 citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.043,-0.007,0.094 @@ -177,11 +205,12 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.068,0.019,0.125 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.328,0.457 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.153,-0.258,-0.06 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.118,-0.207,-0.048 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.12,-0.197,-0.049 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.022,-0.126,0.078 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.013,-0.116,0.088 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.01,-0.109,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.061,-0.128,0.009 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.067,-0.156,0.006 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.061,-0.128,0.009 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.06,-0.122,0.002 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.018,-0.078,0.112 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.042,-0.06,0.132 @@ -193,11 +222,12 @@ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.066,-0.013,0.144 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.322,0.469 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.228,-0.359,-0.108 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.19,-0.289,-0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.192,0.076,0.385,-0.192,-0.312,-0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.088,-0.15,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.079,-0.137,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.075,-0.134,-0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.129,-0.247,-0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.136,-0.244,-0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.129,-0.247,-0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.128,-0.218,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.045,-0.098,-0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.02,-0.056,0.015 @@ -209,11 +239,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.006,-0.031,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.288,0.423 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.237,-0.381,-0.113 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.199,-0.288,-0.109 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.201,-0.306,-0.098 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.097,-0.151,-0.049 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.087,-0.139,-0.043 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.084,-0.136,-0.038 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.138,-0.259,-0.02 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.145,-0.241,-0.055 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.138,-0.259,-0.02 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.137,-0.226,-0.05 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.053,-0.098,-0.007 FlowState,TiRex,0.404,0.231,0.596,-0.028,-0.071,0.013 @@ -225,11 +256,12 @@ FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.326,0.674,-0.002,-0.052,0.067 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.352,0.275,0.427 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.235,-0.376,-0.115 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.197,-0.299,-0.11 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.199,-0.318,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.095,-0.16,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.085,-0.15,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.082,-0.139,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.136,-0.244,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.143,-0.264,-0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.136,-0.244,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.135,-0.23,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.108,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.288,0.135,0.462,-0.027,-0.084,0.018 @@ -241,11 +273,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.287,0.417 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.911,-1.215,-0.648 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.093,-0.622 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.855,-1.102,-0.612 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.694,-0.927,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.679,-0.891,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-0.899,-0.491 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.758,-0.992,-0.556 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.768,-1.023,-0.55 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.758,-0.992,-0.556 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-0.969,-0.565 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-0.83,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.782,-0.427 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 5289f6d0df6e509daf60189d445a01119b29ebda..c6e1d0b3c5e052dc35a27625b73ab26b765df659 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,78.99999999999999,34.9166343514373,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,76.99999999999999,34.29269995744054,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.66666666666669,32.87474894024488,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.33333333333336,31.78597649489514,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.33333333333334,28.963255047296542,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.33333333333333,34.55373879766452,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.33333333333334,27.93729353213241,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,62.33333333333334,32.47588770643868,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,61.33333333333333,33.38915880315173,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,60.66666666666668,32.759601774152436,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,60.33333333333333,33.16623383500657,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,60.00000000000001,27.130941962281884,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,60.0,31.90295044124469,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.833333333333314,33.79488506711863,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,58.33333333333335,27.02155839964281,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,55.00000000000001,27.354995059689568,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,54.666666666666664,26.055688762834595,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.0,31.700573837170467,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.16666666666667,30.041136052707273,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.66666666666667,28.997499277709025,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,47.333333333333336,28.071655328734924,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.333333333333336,29.22979017092695,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.66666666666667,22.70787609837541,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,30.99999999999999,5.881738752268506,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -TFT,27.333333333333332,8.056299346355855,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.666666666666664,15.20916710141943,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.000000000000004,8.848833829469338,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,20.999999999999993,12.927869318522445,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.833333333333336,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.833333333333332,0.30982947391161586,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.66666666666666,7.491051482058886,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.38709677419354,34.9166343514373,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,76.77419354838709,34.29269995744054,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,69.03225806451613,34.44032877005243,0.0,0.3917621968260694,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,68.38709677419355,32.87474894024488,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,66.45161290322581,31.78597649489514,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.80645161290322,28.963255047296542,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.19354838709677,34.55373879766452,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.93548387096776,27.93729353213241,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.93548387096776,32.47588770643868,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,61.29032258064516,33.38915880315173,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,60.00000000000001,33.16623383500657,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,60.0,32.759601774152436,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.03225806451612,31.90295044124469,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.87096774193549,33.79488506711863,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,58.70967741935483,27.130941962281884,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,57.41935483870968,27.02155839964281,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,54.19354838709677,27.354995059689568,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,53.870967741935495,26.055688762834595,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.935483870967744,31.700573837170467,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.45161290322581,30.041136052707273,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.967741935483865,28.997499277709025,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.096774193548384,29.22979017092695,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,46.774193548387096,28.071655328734924,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.935483870967744,22.70787609837541,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,30.64516129032258,5.881738752268506,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +TFT,26.7741935483871,8.056299346355855,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.870967741935484,15.20916710141943,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.29032258064516,8.848833829469338,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,20.32258064516129,12.927869318522445,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.225806451612904,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.29032258064516,0.30982947391161586,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,16.129032258064516,7.491051482058886,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv index c23df05ea612633cabc22d1284b1e9b9be9d55f0..171ad087c3dd7658b94a3bbb74562398fa0cc151 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,82.0,39.425727939082535,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,81.33333333333333,39.683119126306366,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,76.33333333333336,38.08875531260849,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.33333333333334,38.03594071146331,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,67.0,33.76977925435224,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.16666666666666,38.69101646514035,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -TS-ICL,64.66666666666667,36.735170870136194,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.66666666666667,37.79500412291329,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.66666666666666,33.54660585794915,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.0,36.908809542631595,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,63.0,37.8794168351068,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,62.66666666666668,33.86938070997042,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,60.66666666666667,32.77732666419397,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.333333333333336,37.78506660666954,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.333333333333336,33.710262442699914,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.5,36.49963478571547,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,54.333333333333336,32.77403706037661,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.33333333333333,34.41096517434523,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,50.66666666666667,31.12404358258436,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.0,31.666899122864876,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,39.33333333333333,24.996902028028057,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,35.33333333333333,24.745890887412404,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,34.333333333333314,23.555776042271713,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,32.0,8.15543220497067,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -TFT,30.33333333333333,13.487049535026774,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,23.66666666666666,17.70708962424181,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,22.999999999999993,17.733419411019135,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.333333333333332,13.730380882991922,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.833333333333332,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.499999999999998,-7.297793646802875,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.333333333333336,0.404190086867684,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.96774193548387,39.425727939082535,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,80.96774193548386,39.683119126306366,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.41935483870968,39.8125458246755,0.0,0.3917621968260694,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,75.48387096774192,38.08875531260849,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.64516129032258,38.03594071146331,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,65.48387096774194,33.76977925435224,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.03225806451613,38.69101646514035,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.548387096774206,36.735170870136194,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,62.58064516129031,33.54660585794915,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.58064516129031,37.79500412291329,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.25806451612903,37.8794168351068,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.935483870967744,36.908809542631595,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,60.967741935483865,33.86938070997042,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.35483870967742,33.710262442699914,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,59.354838709677416,32.77732666419397,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.03225806451613,37.78506660666954,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.54838709677419,36.49963478571547,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,53.87096774193548,32.77403706037661,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.967741935483865,34.41096517434523,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,49.677419354838705,31.12404358258436,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.83870967741936,31.666899122864876,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,38.064516129032256,24.996902028028057,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,34.516129032258064,24.745890887412404,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,33.87096774193548,23.555776042271713,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,31.612903225806456,8.15543220497067,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +TFT,29.354838709677416,13.487049535026774,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,22.903225806451612,17.70708962424181,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,22.258064516129032,17.733419411019135,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.64516129032258,13.730380882991922,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.258064516129032,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.064516129032262,-7.297793646802875,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,11.935483870967742,0.404190086867684,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 3f5d0e0f5a0955afc82a380d9f74e0b0d373bf9f..1299827b0668e58e42245ef3461fc7cc0c57358f 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-2.5,68.6666666666667,30.236433011588616,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.6666666666667,26.601930748682324,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,66.33333333333336,28.488597477387366,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.0,27.06736057976333,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,65.0,29.12048347898083,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.66666666666667,29.549083444333757,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,62.66666666666666,23.803402469752132,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,62.66666666666666,28.45442598437944,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,62.33333333333334,29.759653720585042,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,61.33333333333334,25.714346434991153,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,58.833333333333314,31.595921669939887,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,57.666666666666664,23.737937635347716,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,57.666666666666664,23.159110215973843,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.66666666666666,28.753205083598854,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,56.99999999999999,22.479955103457115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.66666666666668,29.45241897965094,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,55.33333333333332,29.1761523445201,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,55.00000000000001,29.6956210738891,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.66666666666667,24.961571876693643,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,53.333333333333336,28.23998648969035,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.500000000000014,25.883263022341175,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,47.0,24.80079887494443,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.66666666666665,16.462366143379946,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.33333333333333,15.90999185953288,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.666666666666668,14.265515876146328,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,26.333333333333336,4.835755105983619,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -Drift,24.666666666666664,6.995102476216641,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 -TFT,23.666666666666668,-0.6246028567987283,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.166666666666664,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.166666666666664,0.09410405602899852,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,20.666666666666657,2.754946880183251,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,69.35483870967742,31.825509329175105,0.0,0.3917621968260694,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,68.06451612903226,30.236433011588616,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,66.45161290322581,26.601930748682324,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.80645161290323,27.06736057976333,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,65.80645161290323,28.488597477387366,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,63.548387096774206,29.12048347898083,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.61290322580646,28.45442598437944,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,61.61290322580646,23.803402469752132,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.61290322580646,29.759653720585042,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,61.61290322580645,29.549083444333757,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.64516129032258,25.714346434991153,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,57.90322580645161,31.595921669939887,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.41935483870968,28.753205083598854,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,56.774193548387096,23.159110215973843,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,56.774193548387096,23.737937635347716,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,56.12903225806451,22.479955103457115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,55.483870967741936,29.45241897965094,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,54.83870967741935,29.1761523445201,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,54.83870967741935,29.6956210738891,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.903225806451616,24.961571876693643,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,52.58064516129032,28.23998648969035,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.83870967741935,25.883263022341175,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.774193548387096,24.80079887494443,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.03225806451613,16.462366143379946,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,34.83870967741935,15.90999185953288,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,28.064516129032256,14.265515876146328,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.129032258064523,4.835755105983619,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Drift,24.193548387096776,6.995102476216641,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +TFT,23.548387096774192,-0.6246028567987283,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +Naive,22.741935483870968,0.09410405602899852,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,22.741935483870968,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,20.32258064516129,2.754946880183251,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv index ad2f14662dab7c5e95ee220cf9efb02fa37caa5a..a64f238091dda6a17c63dc6da68a095c0af70ece 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,72.00000000000001,40.421377709866235,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,71.00000000000001,39.61464192039935,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.33333333333334,40.552489916172874,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.33333333333334,37.313049400685664,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.66666666666669,40.356679864874486,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.83333333333333,41.64215770095807,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.66666666666667,37.518925534209544,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.33333333333333,34.86494484839163,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,63.33333333333331,38.86640859412728,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,63.0,34.84636139478182,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,61.99999999999998,38.88592212674449,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,61.33333333333333,35.47613872211428,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.0,40.320844847410996,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,60.66666666666667,34.52744790415115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.166666666666664,38.083893021927985,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,57.00000000000001,36.31335951896396,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.666666666666664,38.14282869293443,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.66666666666667,35.62915272518256,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,53.33333333333334,32.19312847125849,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,53.0,33.50707751988894,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,36.00000000000001,25.255259089696292,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.99999999999999,19.925031039747566,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,34.66666666666665,24.248203702135108,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,30.0,21.67302472205549,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,29.33333333333332,15.68929320376099,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,27.999999999999996,18.143895495008643,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,24.999999999999993,15.548311275264371,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 -TFT,24.666666666666668,6.246826522995086,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.16666666666667,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.66666666666666,0.8421348846480603,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.166666666666657,-6.552998310854519,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,75.80645161290323,42.00290308322947,0.0,0.3917621968260694,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,70.64516129032258,40.421377709866235,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,70.3225806451613,39.61464192039935,0.0,2.004992396905436,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.6774193548387,40.552489916172874,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,68.06451612903226,37.313049400685664,0.0,0.3575023838736039,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.74193548387096,40.356679864874486,0.0,0.3327079909164846,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.80645161290322,37.518925534209544,0.0,199.6776895770319,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.32258064516128,41.64215770095807,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.58064516129031,38.86640859412728,0.0,1.3692244438010608,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,61.935483870967744,34.86494484839163,0.0,5.925324101666666,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,61.935483870967744,34.84636139478182,0.0,1.1242909435416668,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.29032258064516,38.88592212674449,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.32258064516128,35.47613872211428,0.0,0.4238227016666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.00000000000001,40.320844847410996,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,59.354838709677416,34.52744790415115,0.0,2.728815209166667,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,56.451612903225815,36.31335951896396,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,55.96774193548387,38.083893021927985,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,55.80645161290323,38.14282869293443,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,52.58064516129033,33.50707751988894,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,52.58064516129033,32.19312847125849,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.25806451612903,35.62915272518256,0.0,0.36290417583333334,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.16129032258065,25.255259089696292,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,34.51612903225807,19.925031039747566,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.19354838709677,24.248203702135108,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,29.03225806451613,21.67302472205549,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.70967741935484,15.68929320376099,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,27.419354838709676,18.143895495008643,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,24.516129032258068,15.548311275264371,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +TFT,23.87096774193548,6.246826522995086,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.806451612903224,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Drift,18.387096774193544,0.8421348846480603,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.93548387096774,-6.552998310854519,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv index 12c1addf35c9d87a0c59c0c7ed0f29a1e0353363..b1c2ccffc7ad570b3c772ccf2ad24236334e2006 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,289 +2,289 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.092,0.039 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.019,0.07 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.105,0.056 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.053,0.108 TimesFM-3,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.014,-0.118,0.138 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.004,0.16 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.088,-0.011,0.198 -TimesFM-3,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.017,-0.118,0.135 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,-0.004,-0.143,0.075 +TimesFM-3,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.017,-0.118,0.135 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.027,-0.061,0.09 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.023,-0.089,0.112 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.035,-0.099,0.121 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.098,0.045,0.148 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.075,0.072 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.037,0.163 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.061,-0.0,0.12 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.221,0.477 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.041,0.084 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.03,-0.041,0.111 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.022,0.035 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.046,0.007,0.092 TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.023,-0.068,0.13 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.084,0.014,0.165 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.097,-0.012,0.196 -TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.061,0.126 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.051,0.055 +TiRex-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.061,0.126 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.036,0.002,0.069 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.021,0.091 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.044,-0.014,0.093 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.107,0.031,0.187 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.061 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.108,0.039,0.166 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.07,0.005,0.131 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.2,0.495 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.075,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.031,-0.125,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.142,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.151,0.132 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.055,-0.033,0.157 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.018,0.168 -TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.004,-0.149,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.178,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.004,-0.149,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.088,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.132,0.117 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.132,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.006,0.154 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.094,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.08,-0.008,0.176 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.204,0.472 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.06,0.095 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.037,0.022 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.064,0.124 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.039,-0.001,0.079 +t0-beta,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.016,-0.083,0.125 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.077,0.001,0.158 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.09,-0.025,0.2 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.043,0.04 +t0-beta,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.068,0.12 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.009,0.067 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.024,0.076 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.037,0.0,0.073 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.1,0.014,0.194 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.01,-0.048,0.058 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.063,0.003,0.127 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.186,0.49 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.121,0.051 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.048,-0.102,-0.007 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.04,-0.085,0.001 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.166,0.118 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.04,-0.012,0.095 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.056,0.143 -Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.154,0.112 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.101,0.001 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.154,0.112 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.054,0.022 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.002,-0.049,0.04 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.022,0.16 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,0.003,0.126 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455 LightGBM,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.014,-0.16,0.106 LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.023,-0.149,0.064 LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.152,0.131 +LightGBM,t0-beta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.143,0.076 LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.134,0.142 LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 LightGBM,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.062,-0.124,0.203 LightGBM,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.119,0.233 -LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028 LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.018,-0.155,0.089 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028 LightGBM,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.136,0.114 LightGBM,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.136,0.138 LightGBM,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.022,-0.128,0.138 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.086,-0.093,0.211 LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.006,-0.147,0.089 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.087,-0.086,0.211 LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.118,0.168 LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.334,0.122,0.504 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.191,0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.091,-0.198,-0.014 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.058,-0.186,0.032 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.084,-0.188,-0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.041,-0.105,0.012 TabPFN-TS-3,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.255,0.11 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.051,0.075 -TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.234,0.102 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.189,-0.005 +TabPFN-TS-3,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.234,0.102 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.052,-0.134,0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.056,-0.156,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.148,0.045 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.09,0.121 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.073,-0.185,0.003 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.07,0.11 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.067,0.028 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.176,0.398 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.097,-0.247,0.011 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.107,-0.244,0.012 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.074,-0.201,0.018 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.099,-0.25,0.025 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.056,-0.167,0.053 FlowState,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.303,0.107 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.081,0.048 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.078,-0.28,0.101 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.239,0.014 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.078,-0.28,0.101 FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.171,0.025 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.072,-0.213,0.064 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.058,-0.213,0.078 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.144,0.134 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.088,-0.212,0.013 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.135,0.139 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.03,-0.119,0.052 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.279,0.18,0.379 -CatBoost,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.017,-0.157,0.105 -CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.144,0.058 -CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.004,-0.14,0.129 -CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.127,0.134 -CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.114,0.189 -CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.073,-0.112,0.218 -CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.14,0.076 -CatBoost,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.126,0.107 -CatBoost,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.137,0.13 -CatBoost,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.118,0.129 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,-0.083,0.213 -CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.137,0.079 -CatBoost,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.084,-0.076,0.205 -CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.115,0.157 -CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.125,0.498 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.5,0.004,-0.081,0.125 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.059,0.049 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.074,0.151 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.042,0.041 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.001,0.091 TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.098,0.134 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.005,0.159 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.014,0.193 -TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.082,0.123 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.082,0.123 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.031,-0.006,0.079 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.027,-0.025,0.087 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.039,-0.001,0.082 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.005,0.22 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.055,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.103,0.01,0.195 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.002,0.145 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.194,0.48 +CatBoost,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.017,-0.157,0.105 +CatBoost,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.144,0.058 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.004,-0.14,0.129 +CatBoost,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.136,0.064 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.127,0.134 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.114,0.189 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.073,-0.112,0.218 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.14,0.076 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.126,0.107 +CatBoost,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.137,0.13 +CatBoost,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.118,0.129 +CatBoost,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,-0.083,0.213 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.137,0.079 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.115,0.157 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.125,0.498 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.028,-0.099,0.057 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.038,-0.075,-0.002 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.081,0.081 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.072,0.009 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049 TiRex,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.129,0.119 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.049,-0.003,0.118 TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.026,0.146 -TiRex,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.12,0.112 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.032,-0.085,0.006 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.12,0.112 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.004,-0.05,0.057 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.052,0.066 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,-0.012,0.166 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.02,-0.063,0.015 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.003,0.149 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.184,0.464 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.023,-0.126,0.082 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.1,0.021 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.132,0.116 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.082,0.023 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.023,0.051 citras-fm,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.16,0.12 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.03,0.135 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.067,-0.069,0.176 -citras-fm,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.15,0.12 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.095,0.024 +citras-fm,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.15,0.12 citras-fm,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.004,-0.06,0.048 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.013,-0.029,0.06 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.077,-0.026,0.187 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.119,0.055 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.003,0.156 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.039,-0.054,0.115 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.328,0.157,0.481 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.137,0.09 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.046,-0.103,0.014 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.14,0.117 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.078,-0.0 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.002,-0.042,0.047 TS-ICL,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.16,0.113 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.047,0.129 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.055,-0.084,0.176 -TS-ICL,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.148,0.105 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.041,-0.089,0.001 +TS-ICL,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.148,0.105 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.07,0.049 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.013,-0.064,0.028 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.065,-0.02,0.185 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.125,0.049 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.067,-0.001,0.151 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.027,-0.061,0.114 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.319,0.142,0.473 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.109,-0.173,-0.048 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.12,-0.231,-0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.182,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.111,-0.241,-0.014 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.068,-0.19,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.094,-0.268,0.085 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.138,0.082 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.011,-0.155,0.126 -Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.09,-0.27,0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.282,0.005 +Toto-2.0-313m,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.09,-0.27,0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.199,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.084,-0.23,0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.07,-0.227,0.019 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.101,-0.229,0.01 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.052,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.042,-0.144,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.271,0.114,0.434 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.078,0.07 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.017,-0.065,0.033 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.037,0.086 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.01,-0.062,0.045 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102 Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.006,-0.097,0.128 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.068,-0.003,0.156 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.013,0.175 -Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.086,0.121 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.082,0.052 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.086,0.121 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.02,-0.015,0.059 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.058,0.106 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.052,0.111 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.091,-0.01,0.186 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.093,-0.001,0.183 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.203,0.482 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.195,-0.038 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.121,-0.2,-0.041 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.087,-0.213,0.008 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.07,-0.144,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.096,-0.268,0.079 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.027,-0.123,0.066 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.162,0.119 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,CatBoost,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.092,-0.257,0.07 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.115,-0.242,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.175,0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.185,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.072,-0.178,0.001 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.056,0.05 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.102,-0.223,0.001 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.145,0.039 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.27,0.097,0.424 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.065,-0.137,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.075,-0.151,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.067,-0.145,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.05,-0.201,0.106 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.029,0.063 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.029,-0.055,0.107 -Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.186,0.103 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.169,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.186,0.103 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.04,-0.129,0.051 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.027,-0.129,0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.04,-0.052,0.126 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.04,0.127 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.913,-0.283 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.536,-0.978,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.893,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.959,-0.228 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204 Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.501,-1.017,-0.14 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.661,-0.214 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.388,-0.61,-0.22 -Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.496,-0.991,-0.143 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.922,-0.241 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.496,-0.991,-0.143 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.865,-0.226 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.487,-0.927,-0.187 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.468,-0.898,-0.165 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.372,-0.767,-0.129 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.93,-0.255 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.37,-0.735,-0.107 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv index f9c9a88c9404a9ea41d087e1ca7fdaf339daa21e..a0282ced6e2577beba0914b3823d1b49ced8ebd0 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.072,0.054 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.097,0.051 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.068,0.095 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.016,0.069 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.089,0.038,0.138 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.092,0.027,0.16 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,0.007,0.174 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.044,-0.03,0.103 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.079,0.112 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.03,-0.065,0.097 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,0.007,0.174 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.044,-0.03,0.103 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.069,0.121 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.016,-0.064,0.08 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.103,0.049,0.154 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.031,-0.067,0.101 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.09,0.028,0.151 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.05,-0.013,0.11 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.274,0.524 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.057,0.067 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.035,0.025 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.01,0.059 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.022,-0.04,0.096 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,0.014,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,0.023,0.15 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.084,0.022,0.151 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.04,0.008,0.069 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.026,0.083 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.026,-0.001,0.06 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.084,0.022,0.151 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.04,0.008,0.069 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.043,-0.005,0.087 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.012,-0.031,0.053 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.03,0.163 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.026,-0.023,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.086,0.02,0.144 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.046,-0.007,0.098 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.256,0.521 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.053,0.088 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.026,0.034 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.072 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.05,0.116 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.091,0.011,0.174 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.094,0.019,0.161 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.031,-0.014,0.083 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.073 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.09,0.016,0.171 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.046,0.003,0.089 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.013,0.082 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.018,-0.028,0.062 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.105,0.023,0.178 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.092,0.018,0.158 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.052,0.001,0.106 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.255,0.529 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.105,0.064 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.062,0.01 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.077,0.008 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.091,0.094 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.065,-0.023,0.154 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.001,0.133 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.064,0.009,0.119 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.037,0.043 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.005,-0.032,0.03 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.064,0.009,0.119 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.021,-0.013,0.058 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.01,-0.086,0.045 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,0.002,0.157 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.005,-0.053,0.052 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.066,-0.016,0.142 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.035,0.08 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.504 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.027,-0.074,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.023,-0.106,0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.132,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.104,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.006,0.141 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.024,0.165 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.063,-0.014,0.15 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.116,0.114 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.096,0.075 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.063,-0.014,0.15 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.102,0.114 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.011,-0.085,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.004,0.156 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.105,0.104 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.065,-0.012,0.149 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.032,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.264,0.511 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.098,-0.16,-0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.182,-0.014 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.1,-0.21,-0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.07,-0.182,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.164,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.049,0.056 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.106,0.105 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.05,-0.144,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.066,-0.195,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.175,0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.106,0.105 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.05,-0.144,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.047,-0.171,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.08,-0.195,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.015,-0.006,0.041 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.178,0.016 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.037,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.147,0.047 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.338,0.182,0.488 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.102,-0.191,-0.028 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.177,-0.023 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.104,-0.193,-0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.073,-0.154,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.072,-0.198,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.059,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.107,0.091 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.053,-0.145,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.157,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.068,-0.169,0.018 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.107,0.091 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.053,-0.145,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.05,-0.14,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.084,-0.205,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.011,-0.022,0.045 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.068,-0.141,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.002,-0.046,0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.047,-0.159,0.041 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.163,0.479 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.096,-0.211,-0.007 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.092,-0.178,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.068,-0.135,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.067,-0.177,0.013 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.117,0.096 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.1,0.097 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.121,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.171,0.025 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.126,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.134,0.031 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.194,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.087,0.104 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.063,-0.191,0.029 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.12,0.097 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.041,-0.106,0.011 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.227,0.44 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.046,-0.114,0.029 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.042,-0.074,-0.008 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.034,0.126 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.051,-0.025,0.126 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,0.001,0.108 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.074,0.049 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.055,0.023 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.056,0.055 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.016,0.136 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.014,-0.082,0.044 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.028,0.12 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.03,-0.126,0.073 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.091,0.026 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.032,-0.091,0.013 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.045,0.036 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.128,0.104 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.062,-0.03,0.163 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.065,-0.004,0.136 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.026,0.146 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.051,0.069 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.074,0.06 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.026,0.146 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.051,0.069 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.025,0.061 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.112,0.054 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.007,0.165 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.002,-0.044,0.043 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.016,0.142 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.07,0.093 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.379,0.212,0.52 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.031,-0.108,0.061 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.027,-0.064,0.001 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.079,0.001 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.005,-0.031,0.031 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.081,0.087 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.033,0.149 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.064,-0.018,0.144 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,0.004,0.112 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.023,0.052 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.064,0.069 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,0.004,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.023,0.052 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.023,0.059 TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.077,0.034 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.01,0.157 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.0,-0.071,0.059 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.062,-0.032,0.135 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.02,-0.025,0.07 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.247,0.498 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.096,-0.211,-0.007 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.092,-0.178,-0.023 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.099,-0.206,-0.016 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.068,-0.135,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.067,-0.177,0.013 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.117,0.096 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.1,0.097 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.171,0.025 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.126,-0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.121,-0.001 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.134,0.031 +TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.079,-0.194,-0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.087,0.104 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.12,0.097 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.041,-0.106,0.011 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.227,0.44 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.046,-0.114,0.029 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.042,-0.074,-0.008 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.048,-0.098,-0.003 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.034,0.126 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.051,-0.025,0.126 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.074,0.049 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.055,0.023 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,0.001,0.108 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.056,0.055 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.016,0.136 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.028,0.12 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.138,0.064 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.044,-0.096,0.005 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.089,-0.013 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.022,-0.061,0.013 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.129,0.093 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.045,-0.035,0.146 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.019,0.123 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.032,0.118 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.058,0.053 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.063,0.023 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.032,0.118 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.058,0.053 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.032,-0.107,0.033 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.013,0.152 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.017,-0.064,0.023 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.046,-0.031,0.121 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.07,0.075 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.205,0.506 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.016,-0.087,0.06 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.056,0.03 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.019,-0.066,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.01,-0.047,0.079 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.011,-0.036,0.078 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.074,-0.018,0.163 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.077,-0.013,0.17 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,0.004,0.162 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.057,0.101 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.035,0.072 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.073,0.004,0.162 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.031,-0.035,0.097 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.088,-0.004,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.052,0.084 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.01,0.156 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.35,0.9,0.035,-0.011,0.083 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.253,0.522 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.182,-0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.195,-0.031 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.117,-0.216,-0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.186,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.185,-0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.015,-0.043,0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.047,0.021 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.116,0.08 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.157,0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.198,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.186,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.116,0.08 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.157,0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.179,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.096,-0.211,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.08,-0.177,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.051,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.059,-0.158,0.025 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.328,0.168,0.472 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.031,-0.112,0.062 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.027,-0.084,0.022 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.005,-0.054,0.05 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.116,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.016,0.151 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.064,-0.001,0.124 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.059,-0.03,0.161 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.014,-0.046,0.076 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.002,-0.045,0.042 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.0,-0.063,0.066 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.017,-0.023,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.092,0.049 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.074,-0.0,0.151 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.006,0.123 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.06,0.091 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.214,0.526 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.099,-0.178,-0.029 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.094,-0.168,-0.021 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.101,-0.187,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.071,-0.166,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.175,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.028,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.002,-0.033,0.044 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.107,0.107 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.051,-0.137,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.165,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.066,-0.156,0.031 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.107,0.107 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.051,-0.137,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.048,-0.138,0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.185,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.017,0.048 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.14,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.044,-0.148,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.337,0.162,0.491 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.124,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.048,-0.108,0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.055,-0.118,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.086,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.087,0.031 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.05,0.128 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.043,0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.04,-0.011,0.095 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.103,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.021,-0.075,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.04,-0.011,0.095 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.081,0.065 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.1,0.65,-0.036,-0.091,0.01 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.055,-0.026,0.136 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.1,0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.042,-0.048,0.129 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.481 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-1.1,-0.377 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.651,-1.086,-0.344 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-1.123,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.015,-0.319 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.045,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.51,-0.953,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.505,-0.918,-0.195 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.787,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.61,-1.083,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.992,-0.328 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.787,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.581,-1.022,-0.258 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-1.091,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.488,-0.893,-0.202 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-1.108,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.509,-0.966,-0.194 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.575,-0.927,-0.328 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 124d92aa9c721a9c9a770e27f0eed667f175002c..71da6e0f94cf07fe9e9f905f1f5fc2b82d70bf68 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.023,-0.138,0.159 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.065,-0.048,0.166 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.071,-0.006,0.184 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.085,0.207 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.038,-0.01,0.08 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.007,0.078 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.105,0.017,0.204 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.029,-0.059,0.116 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.082,-0.12,0.239 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.047,0.013,0.083 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.003,-0.106,0.079 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.106,-0.004,0.228 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.008,0.108 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.113,0.002,0.239 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.08,-0.047,0.188 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.076,0.503 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.023,-0.19,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.05,-0.037,0.153 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.042,0.157 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.05,-0.037,0.153 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.068,0.112 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.022,0.202 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.01,-0.109,0.129 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.022,0.202 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.063,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.128,0.159 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.057,0.195 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.025,-0.128,0.159 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.02,-0.124,0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.021,0.205 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.01,0.182 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.095,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.1,-0.007,0.209 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.021,0.205 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.059,-0.012,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.151,0.466 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.052,-0.18,0.036 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.006,-0.116,0.104 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.026,-0.111,0.048 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.156,0.044 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,0.003,0.073 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.042,-0.137,0.019 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.141,0.028 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.175,0.068 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.194,0.191 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.073,-0.232,0.042 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.002,0.099 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.038,-0.02,0.091 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.111,0.031 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.053,0.016,0.093 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.01,-0.111,0.117 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.03,0.446 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.07,-0.199,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.186,0.041 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.006,-0.116,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.006,-0.116,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.02,-0.107,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.128,0.059 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.069,0.141 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.035,-0.131,0.053 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.069,0.141 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.038,-0.168,0.031 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.135,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.084,0.109 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.135,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.193,0.03 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.101,0.171 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.044,-0.115,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.153,0.076 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.072,0.167 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.101,0.171 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.016,-0.04,0.071 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.271,0.109,0.406 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.077,-0.226,0.006 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.052,-0.18,0.036 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.006,-0.116,0.104 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.026,-0.111,0.048 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.156,0.044 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.042,-0.137,0.019 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,0.003,0.073 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.141,0.028 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.194,0.191 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.175,0.068 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.073,-0.232,0.042 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.038,-0.02,0.091 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.111,0.031 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.002,0.099 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.01,-0.111,0.117 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.03,0.446 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.262,0.078 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.025,-0.126,0.064 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.026,-0.05,0.1 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.019,-0.085,0.097 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.026,-0.05,0.1 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.17,0.094 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.026,0.146 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.166,0.085 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.026,0.146 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.018,-0.156,0.077 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.0,-0.203,0.121 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.037,-0.116,0.179 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.0,-0.203,0.121 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.045,-0.226,0.075 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.03,0.153 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.062,-0.048,0.149 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.004,-0.136,0.099 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,-0.002,0.152 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.03,0.153 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.035,-0.058,0.119 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.12,0.424 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.04,-0.087,0.01 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.047,0.135 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.062,0.114 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.047,0.135 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.104,0.145 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.07,-0.016,0.158 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.006,-0.054,0.035 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.07,-0.016,0.158 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.034,0.061 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.141,0.185 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.034,0.061 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.078,-0.034,0.196 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.071,-0.036,0.181 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.065,0.075 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.086,-0.012,0.196 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.078,-0.034,0.196 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.253,0.021 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.079,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.164,0.065 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.171,0.025 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.188,0.016 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.173,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.085,-0.194,0.009 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.065,-0.214,0.037 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.026,-0.249,0.151 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.114,-0.286,0.022 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.043,0.054 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.076,0.055 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.145,-0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.012,0.05 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.028,-0.167,0.084 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.238,-0.014,0.419 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.084,0.007 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.01,-0.148,0.099 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.04,-0.019,0.12 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.056,0.116 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.04,-0.019,0.12 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.092,0.142 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.006,-0.037,0.051 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,0.001,0.148 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,0.001,0.148 citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.083,0.057 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.041,0.07 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.052,-0.137,0.196 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.015,-0.041,0.07 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.03,-0.127,0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.083,-0.021,0.19 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.076,-0.024,0.175 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.039,0.059 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.091,0.002,0.189 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.083,-0.021,0.19 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.049,-0.06,0.134 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.295,0.073,0.472 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.118,-0.256,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.253,0.021 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.164,0.065 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.079,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.171,0.025 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.188,0.016 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.173,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.085,-0.194,0.009 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.026,-0.249,0.151 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.065,-0.214,0.037 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.114,-0.286,0.022 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.076,0.055 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.145,-0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.043,0.054 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.028,-0.167,0.084 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.238,-0.014,0.419 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.03,-0.131,0.056 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.078,0.059 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.029,0.123 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.037,-0.032,0.144 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.029,0.123 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.083,0.135 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.078,-0.009,0.162 TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.06,0.077 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.078,-0.009,0.162 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.073,0.098 TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.089,0.201 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.073,0.098 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.087,0.031 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.086,-0.013,0.18 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.005,0.156 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.053,0.073 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.094,0.0,0.183 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.086,-0.013,0.18 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.052,-0.028,0.146 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.098,0.478 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.188,0.114 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.073,0.149 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.086,0.119 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.0,-0.137,0.169 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.065,0.033 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.061,-0.038,0.177 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.075,0.039 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.019,-0.109,0.068 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,-0.165,0.189 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.046,-0.15,0.031 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.056,0.21 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.062,-0.061,0.196 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.004,-0.084,0.071 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.077,-0.031,0.209 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.085,0.14 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.037,0.472 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.09,-0.313,0.107 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.242,0.054 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.236,0.162 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.122,0.078 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.236,0.162 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.039,-0.218,0.104 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.227,0.124 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.025,-0.178,0.199 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.054,-0.245,0.12 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.025,-0.178,0.199 FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.058,-0.251,0.082 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.232,0.142 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.232,0.142 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.257,0.058 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.033,-0.204,0.217 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.204,0.195 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.273,0.14 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.042,-0.177,0.214 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.033,-0.204,0.217 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.133,0.112 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.128,0.376 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.091,-0.013 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.026,-0.188,0.114 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.086,0.119 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.073,0.149 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.0,-0.137,0.169 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.065,0.033 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.075,0.039 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.061,-0.038,0.177 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.019,-0.109,0.068 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,-0.165,0.189 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.046,-0.15,0.031 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.062,-0.061,0.196 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.004,-0.084,0.071 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.056,0.21 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.085,0.14 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.037,0.472 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.003,-0.085,0.096 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.052,0.11 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.068,-0.044,0.188 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.062,-0.031,0.162 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.068,-0.044,0.188 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.043,-0.081,0.184 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.102,-0.023,0.223 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.029,-0.039,0.113 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.102,-0.023,0.223 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.032,0.08 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.032,0.131 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.061,0.204 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.032,0.131 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.11,-0.037,0.242 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.103,-0.025,0.22 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.045,0.126 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.118,-0.024,0.242 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.11,-0.037,0.242 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.077,-0.001,0.158 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.124,0.487 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.258,0.021 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.109,0.002 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.207,0.092 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.181,0.029 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.084,-0.243,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.057,0.041 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.091,-0.234,0.02 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.094,-0.22,0.013 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.266,0.053 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.034,-0.278,0.17 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.123,-0.32,0.036 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.04,0.026 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.079,-0.187,0.009 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.011,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.037,-0.193,0.102 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.232,-0.027,0.431 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.119,-0.295,0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.222,0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.039,-0.1,0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.046,-0.175,0.103 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.039,-0.1,0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.066,-0.176,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.076,-0.22,0.035 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.058,0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.213,0.024 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.058,0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.185,0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.066,-0.244,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.243,0.169 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.066,-0.244,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.115,-0.282,0.025 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.027,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.07,-0.166,0.013 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.027,0.064 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.027,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.176,0.113 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.237,-0.01,0.447 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.121,0.007 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.161,0.087 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.032,0.1 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.082,0.133 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.032,0.1 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.004,-0.11,0.12 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.081,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,0.0,0.126 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.063,0.038 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,0.0,0.126 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.079,0.051 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.004,-0.076,0.077 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.163,0.214 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.004,-0.076,0.077 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.144,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.073,-0.009,0.157 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.066,-0.014,0.143 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,0.004,0.159 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.073,-0.009,0.157 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.039,-0.077,0.133 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.053,0.476 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.111,-0.265,0.007 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.056,-0.102,-0.016 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.2,0.067 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.084,-0.18,0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.094,-0.243,0.012 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.053,0.012 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.1,-0.232,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.104,-0.223,-0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.084,-0.263,0.03 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.044,-0.272,0.151 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.133,-0.319,0.023 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.035,0.011 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.069,0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.189,-0.004 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.046,-0.196,0.08 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.225,-0.025,0.414 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.127,-0.314,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.258,0.021 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.207,0.092 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.109,0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.181,0.029 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.084,-0.243,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.091,-0.234,0.02 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.057,0.041 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.094,-0.22,0.013 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.034,-0.278,0.17 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.266,0.053 +Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.123,-0.32,0.036 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.04,0.026 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.079,-0.187,0.009 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.037,-0.193,0.102 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.232,-0.027,0.431 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.087,-0.231,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.062,-0.161,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.01,-0.133,0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.076,0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.01,-0.133,0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.136,0.055 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.027,-0.091,0.143 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.052,-0.155,0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.027,-0.091,0.143 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.055,-0.171,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.163,0.078 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.126,0.117 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.163,0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.084,-0.188,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.035,-0.114,0.162 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.127,0.149 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.04,-0.154,0.072 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.044,-0.087,0.164 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.035,-0.114,0.162 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.259,0.102,0.399 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.467,-1.01,-0.082 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.433,-0.874,-0.179 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.362,-0.804,-0.031 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.371,-0.684,-0.122 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.362,-0.804,-0.031 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.398,-0.736,-0.137 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.312,-0.721,0.014 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.419,-0.895,-0.078 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.312,-0.721,0.014 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.424,-0.915,-0.109 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.398,-0.893,-0.038 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.346,-0.602,-0.147 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.398,-0.893,-0.038 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.951,-0.141 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.301,-0.758,0.027 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.311,-0.809,0.009 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.91,-0.055 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.29,-0.707,0.024 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.301,-0.758,0.027 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.349,-0.664,-0.113 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv index fcb8880e2050893ba3d791fcc41b6b6894ddc680..c94b4819b9cc0990030e51b7a85b93f9b13cd018 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,7 +1,25 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.04,-0.062,0.173 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.101,0.135 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.027,-0.025,0.071 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.075,0.001,0.173 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.072,-0.033,0.169 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.028,-0.008,0.065 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.006,-0.081,0.07 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.11,0.031,0.187 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.11,0.012,0.212 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.024,0.128 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.101,0.006,0.202 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.011,0.065 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,0.01,0.095 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.114,0.03,0.202 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.063,-0.047,0.155 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.42,0.217,0.57 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.041,-0.209,0.058 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.156,0.073 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.016,-0.098,0.062 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.156,0.073 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.037,-0.013,0.088 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.034,-0.052,0.109 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.012,-0.134,0.066 @@ -15,25 +33,10 @@ TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.012,-0.163,0.116 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,-0.002,0.151 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.069,0.109 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.396,0.243,0.522 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.079,0.135 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.019,0.145 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.046,-0.035,0.122 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.045,0.049 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.021,-0.11,0.055 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.085,0.001,0.166 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.086,-0.028,0.197 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.055,0.099 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.077,-0.036,0.182 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.077,0.077 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.025,-0.019,0.081 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.002,0.181 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.038,-0.07,0.13 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.211,0.549 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.157,0.092 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.016,-0.066,0.089 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.052,-0.018,0.138 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.049,-0.018,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.088,0.1 @@ -47,9 +50,27 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.028,-0.104,0.136 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.007,0.198 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.027,-0.076,0.025 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.079,0.135 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.019,0.145 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.046,-0.035,0.122 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.045,0.049 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.021,-0.11,0.055 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.085,0.001,0.166 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.086,-0.028,0.197 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.055,0.099 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.077,-0.036,0.182 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.077,0.077 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.025,-0.019,0.081 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.002,0.181 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.038,-0.07,0.13 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.211,0.549 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.081,-0.209,-0.001 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.038,-0.096,0.013 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.052,-0.169,0.019 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.054,-0.16,0.018 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.052,-0.169,0.019 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.003,-0.092,0.089 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.138,0.004 @@ -63,9 +84,10 @@ TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.025,-0.174,0.066 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.043,0.002,0.089 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.012,-0.128,0.083 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.373,0.19,0.521 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.077,-0.203,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.035,-0.123,0.049 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.139,0.034 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.051,-0.162,0.018 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.139,0.034 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.003,-0.097,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.048,-0.143,0.035 @@ -79,9 +101,10 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.022,-0.135,0.072 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.084,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.078,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.375,0.232,0.495 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.07,0.008 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.012,-0.07,0.118 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.051,0.043 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.111,0.081 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.051,0.043 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.049,-0.004,0.121 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.036,0.125 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -95,9 +118,10 @@ citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.037,0.077 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.089,0.014,0.16 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.037,-0.056,0.112 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.218,0.551 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.006,-0.075,0.075 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.034,-0.073,0.158 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.02,-0.058,0.099 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.02,-0.058,0.099 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.03,0.176 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.066,-0.021,0.163 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.033,0.089 @@ -111,9 +135,10 @@ Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.021,0.117 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.109,-0.011,0.22 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.951,0.057,-0.013,0.128 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.242,0.564 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.123,-0.23,-0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.079,-0.192,0.015 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.093,-0.199,-0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.096,-0.262,0.017 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.093,-0.199,-0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.102,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.176,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.179,-0.014 @@ -127,9 +152,10 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.065,-0.197,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.005,-0.032,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.052,-0.219,0.063 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.349,0.118,0.513 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.269,-0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.079,-0.181,0.021 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.094,-0.246,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.096,-0.245,0.023 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.094,-0.246,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.039,-0.107,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.043,-0.188,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.211,0.012 @@ -143,9 +169,10 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.066,-0.24,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.005,-0.023,0.037 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.052,-0.209,0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.348,0.132,0.525 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.147,0.024 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.012,-0.1,0.083 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.026,-0.11,0.052 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.093,0.023 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.026,-0.11,0.052 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.025,-0.032,0.088 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.022,-0.044,0.123 TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.025,-0.081,0.033 @@ -159,9 +186,10 @@ TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.0,-0.099,0.079 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.067,-0.01,0.141 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.067,0.096 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.216,0.543 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.113,-0.253,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.169,0.034 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.083,-0.222,0.035 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.205,0.017 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.083,-0.222,0.035 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.089,0.033 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.033,-0.152,0.11 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.082,-0.188,0.014 @@ -175,9 +203,10 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.055,-0.218,0.068 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.014,-0.027,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.042,-0.184,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.355,0.161,0.532 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.07,0.011 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.012,-0.095,0.126 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.084,0.072 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.128,0.098 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.084,0.072 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.048,-0.035,0.131 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.045,-0.068,0.161 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.05,0.048 @@ -191,9 +220,10 @@ Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.024,-0.052,0.095 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.088,0.013,0.159 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.036,-0.076,0.13 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.403,0.197,0.565 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.105,-0.01 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.131,0.14 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.026,-0.088,0.019 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.158,0.095 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.026,-0.088,0.019 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.025,-0.071,0.148 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.078,0.119 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.025,-0.084,0.036 @@ -207,9 +237,10 @@ TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.066,-0.037,0.185 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.093,0.11 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.192,0.54 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.129,-0.253,-0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.084,-0.177,0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.221,0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.247,0.007 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.221,0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.044,-0.097,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.173,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.098,-0.191,-0.015 @@ -223,9 +254,10 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.071,-0.228,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.209,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.345,0.128,0.509 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.068,-0.183,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.122,0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.039,-0.149,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.039,-0.149,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.012,-0.091,0.113 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.059,0.073 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.038,-0.126,0.053 @@ -239,9 +271,10 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.123,0.085 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.065,0.173 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.501 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.724,-1.326,-0.277 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.656,-1.092,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.678,-1.217,-0.268 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.678,-1.217,-0.268 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.595,-1.088,-0.234 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.6,-0.979,-0.302 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.677,-1.229,-0.279 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 1ec4bf97d2243009c394651f7b95acbcc7099f15..74f4980100f604b8e4295ee3c28f851a0fd01bc6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,94.28571428571429,33.79613754614167,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,87.61904761904763,31.297845826674763,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,84.76190476190477,29.93744282184213,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,80.4761904761905,30.08997810079499,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,80.00000000000001,29.655413564276433,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.0952380952381,29.34036054759431,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,73.8095238095238,28.358976057331542,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.8095238095238,28.869849458291053,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.52380952380952,28.6618144795166,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,66.66666666666666,27.616306234152965,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.71428571428571,27.624459375998768,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,63.33333333333332,26.238904121348316,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -TFT,51.90476190476192,21.59101828180743,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,49.76190476190476,25.335908970299936,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.76190476190476,25.335908970299936,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.57142857142856,25.573203950705693,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,47.61904761904761,24.96481070359039,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.666666666666664,24.532719864713304,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,45.714285714285715,23.095596464945533,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.714285714285715,23.393412693458927,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,38.0952380952381,18.807513597537383,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,38.0952380952381,19.233879992772206,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,37.61904761904763,20.158757124750093,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,33.80952380952381,16.989509965321957,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,24.285714285714285,7.694422260326506,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,19.523809523809526,3.300627782307375,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoTheta,17.61904761904762,2.2840445944943277,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,13.809523809523808,-16.79021320144407,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.238095238095238,-40.74006367145597,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,0.9523809523809523,-55.85219582340872,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,94.00921658986175,33.79613754614167,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.63594470046083,31.297845826674763,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,83.41013824884793,29.93744282184213,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,82.02764976958527,30.434889156277954,0.0,1.3111994363451884,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.80184331797236,30.08997810079499,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.80184331797234,29.655413564276433,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.95852534562212,29.34036054759431,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,72.35023041474655,28.869849458291053,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,71.88940092165899,28.358976057331542,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,68.66359447004609,28.6618144795166,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.43778801843318,27.616306234152965,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.51612903225806,27.624459375998768,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,61.75115207373272,26.238904121348316,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +TFT,51.15207373271888,21.59101828180743,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,48.156682027649765,25.335908970299936,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.156682027649765,25.335908970299936,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,47.92626728110599,25.573203950705693,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,46.08294930875576,24.96481070359039,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,45.16129032258064,24.532719864713304,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,45.16129032258064,23.095596464945533,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,44.23963133640553,23.393412693458927,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,36.866359447004605,20.158757124750093,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,36.866359447004605,19.233879992772206,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,36.866359447004605,18.807513597537383,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.718894009216584,16.989509965321957,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,23.50230414746544,7.694422260326506,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoARIMA,18.89400921658986,3.300627782307375,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoTheta,17.05069124423963,2.2840445944943277,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.58986175115207,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,13.364055299539167,-16.79021320144407,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.0691244239631335,-40.74006367145597,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,0.9216589861751152,-55.85219582340872,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv index eb467d02c8af8569dd86251470a525f1016c7e80..4396d7bc43c712bb6ae4aa8eebd047d064017940 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,92.85714285714288,45.97167153010899,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,89.52380952380953,44.0257301550027,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,83.33333333333334,42.89784402878507,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714289,42.67646308976785,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,79.04761904761907,42.58037472652917,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.14285714285717,42.389618394267615,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.14285714285715,42.05186473784456,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,73.8095238095238,41.88624154012951,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,71.42857142857142,41.10947919178341,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,69.5238095238095,39.7795308730858,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,68.09523809523809,41.25081408595533,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,68.09523809523807,41.129041277782655,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 -TFT,56.19047619047619,35.28274979848835,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.42857142857142,37.62294495333535,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.42857142857142,37.27325369456074,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.476190476190474,39.04058286932375,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,49.047619047619044,36.53371858952617,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.333333333333336,37.28267455060899,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.333333333333336,37.28267455060899,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -DeepAR,46.666666666666664,34.81362887689631,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,40.95238095238095,28.352379402273474,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,36.19047619047618,33.55369921291073,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.761904761904763,12.567557563101495,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -CatBoost,22.857142857142858,18.14162293295429,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,21.904761904761905,18.571486122225835,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,21.904761904761905,5.668302598674924,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Seasonal Naive,16.19047619047619,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,14.285714285714285,-26.740946175062753,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.0,-344.79628797747506,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,4.761904761904763,-146.7179766143382,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.4285714285714286,-161.010293113985,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,92.62672811059907,45.97167153010899,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.94009216589862,44.0257301550027,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,82.94930875576037,43.282809363869376,0.0,1.3111994363451884,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,82.02764976958527,42.89784402878507,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.10599078341014,42.67646308976785,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.34101382488478,42.58037472652917,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.57603686635946,42.389618394267615,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.57603686635946,42.05186473784456,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.35023041474655,41.88624154012951,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,69.5852534562212,41.10947919178341,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.74193548387096,39.7795308730858,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.82027649769586,41.25081408595533,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.82027649769586,41.129041277782655,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +TFT,54.83870967741935,35.28274979848835,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.69124423963134,37.62294495333535,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,49.76958525345622,37.27325369456074,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.30875576036866,39.04058286932375,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,47.465437788018434,36.53371858952617,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.774193548387096,37.28267455060899,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,46.774193548387096,37.28267455060899,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +DeepAR,45.6221198156682,34.81362887689631,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,39.63133640552995,28.352379402273474,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.02304147465438,33.55369921291073,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.963133640552996,12.567557563101495,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +CatBoost,22.119815668202765,18.14162293295429,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.19815668202765,5.668302598674924,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +LightGBM,21.19815668202765,18.571486122225835,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.668202764976957,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,13.824884792626726,-26.740946175062753,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,9.67741935483871,-344.79628797747506,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,4.6082949308755765,-146.7179766143382,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.3824884792626728,-161.010293113985,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 736ce90f877c9a0dcb7e2cd9b4b88755e91ce900..86a9532c4087c5cb4fbf37144857c7cde2f58d24 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,95.23809523809526,33.77830832848403,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,85.23809523809524,31.4266145251638,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,82.85714285714286,30.040761293064854,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,80.95238095238096,29.64325026676846,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.52380952380955,30.138028587482914,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.52380952380952,29.487453453885294,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,72.85714285714285,28.54102491089481,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.6190476190476,28.23741951420192,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,67.14285714285715,27.870758295207644,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.14285714285714,28.6697990451958,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.14285714285712,27.003058480070795,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.23809523809524,27.95924087455105,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TFT,54.28571428571429,22.688998509483994,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.0,25.32355760868511,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.80952380952381,25.18849985695557,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.80952380952381,25.18849985695557,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -citras-fm,48.57142857142857,25.104163556462588,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.57142857142857,25.92723519256259,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,46.666666666666664,22.970522942844074,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.285714285714285,23.330206407241285,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,41.904761904761905,21.081187839834037,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,39.04761904761906,19.108828334469262,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,36.19047619047619,19.415152538379978,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,34.76190476190476,16.97148442691696,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,24.761904761904763,6.5098083173125705,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -AutoARIMA,21.42857142857143,2.9139047191151235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Seasonal Naive,17.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.238095238095239,0.04374386375031181,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,12.857142857142856,-23.08073712658869,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.238095238095238,-43.56382539762269,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,0.9523809523809523,-58.78908533558298,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,94.93087557603687,33.77830832848403,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.7926267281106,31.4266145251638,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,81.5668202764977,30.040761293064854,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,80.64516129032258,29.92225442955647,0.0,1.3111994363451884,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,79.72350230414746,29.64325026676846,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.34101382488478,29.487453453885294,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.88018433179724,30.138028587482914,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.96774193548387,28.54102491089481,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,66.82027649769586,28.23741951420192,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,66.3594470046083,27.870758295207644,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.89861751152074,28.6697990451958,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.43778801843317,27.003058480070795,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.0552995391705,27.95924087455105,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TFT,53.91705069124424,22.688998509483994,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,48.38709677419355,25.32355760868511,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,47.92626728110599,25.92723519256259,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,47.235023041474655,25.18849985695557,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.235023041474655,25.18849985695557,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +citras-fm,47.004608294930875,25.104163556462588,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,46.08294930875576,22.970522942844074,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.857142857142854,23.330206407241285,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,41.013824884792626,21.081187839834037,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,37.788018433179715,19.108828334469262,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.023041474654384,19.415152538379978,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,33.6405529953917,16.97148442691696,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,23.963133640552996,6.5098083173125705,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoARIMA,20.737327188940093,2.9139047191151235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,16.58986175115207,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,14.746543778801843,0.04374386375031181,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,12.442396313364053,-23.08073712658869,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.0691244239631335,-43.56382539762269,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,0.9216589861751152,-58.78908533558298,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 56d2a0eca31867f483b9a14df9b9f56232725ee0..8e85c5c913258aca3612eb68d904f3e2ba40a0b4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,94.76190476190479,46.45822451097924,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,87.14285714285715,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,83.80952380952381,43.57639471435733,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.90476190476193,43.23343389055629,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.0,43.15731600629924,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,79.04761904761905,43.095077993747296,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.38095238095235,40.91138061014927,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.95238095238095,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,70.47619047619045,41.94648840704044,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.99999999999999,41.95261502258993,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,69.52380952380952,41.75327825678771,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,68.09523809523809,41.89301824181608,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 -TFT,59.04761904761904,36.840744132528904,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,51.9047619047619,37.89846253371203,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,51.42857142857142,37.74075942414697,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.476190476190474,38.05335876302368,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.476190476190474,39.810526410008265,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,49.523809523809526,36.14199113093005,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.333333333333336,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.333333333333336,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,37.61904761904761,28.980793211199895,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,36.66666666666666,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,25.238095238095244,12.839232215840235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 -CatBoost,23.333333333333336,19.204492596603718,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,22.380952380952383,19.51045461394707,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,20.476190476190478,3.9294085240204057,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 -Seasonal Naive,16.666666666666664,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,13.809523809523808,-35.07795159983096,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.0,-351.4556695151647,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 -Naive,4.761904761904763,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.4285714285714286,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,94.47004608294931,46.45822451097924,0.0,2.0595019868573545,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.63594470046083,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,82.48847926267281,43.57639471435733,0.0,2.398295585576923,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,80.64516129032258,43.41507620932563,0.0,1.3111994363451884,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,80.64516129032258,43.23343389055629,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.80184331797234,43.15731600629924,0.0,5.510428407333333,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,78.34101382488478,43.095077993747296,0.0,1.0909461926282051,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.50691244239631,40.91138061014927,0.0,258.6113400144229,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.58525345622121,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,69.5852534562212,41.94648840704044,0.0,1.2980779820384505,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,68.66359447004608,41.95261502258993,0.0,0.11997201882198961,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,67.74193548387096,41.75327825678771,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.82027649769586,41.89301824181608,0.0,0.22678239423076924,0.0,0.0 +TFT,58.06451612903226,36.840744132528904,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,50.23041474654379,37.89846253371203,0.0,0.550207410667402,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.76958525345622,39.810526410008265,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,49.76958525345621,37.74075942414697,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,49.76958525345621,38.05335876302368,0.0,0.17352653333333334,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,48.38709677419355,36.14199113093005,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.774193548387096,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,46.774193548387096,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +PatchTST,36.405529953917046,28.980793211199895,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.483870967741936,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,24.42396313364055,12.839232215840235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +CatBoost,22.58064516129032,19.204492596603718,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,21.658986175115206,19.51045461394707,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,19.815668202764975,3.9294085240204057,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,16.129032258064516,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,13.364055299539167,-35.07795159983096,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,9.67741935483871,-351.4556695151647,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,4.6082949308755765,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.3824884792626728,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv index 83334f23b075b2df16b937021fba6c36a060e44f..61b8abfe8bcf3f812c74213a6d1abdc2cc387765 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.036,-0.007,0.078 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.055,0.011,0.101 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.048,0.011,0.092 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.059,0.014,0.108 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.053,0.033,0.071 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,0.021,0.11 @@ -12,12 +13,13 @@ TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.085,0.045,0.129 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.154 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.158 TimesFM-3,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.061,0.28 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.061,0.173 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.061,0.173 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.061,0.173 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.241,0.428 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.038,-0.085,0.007 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.019,-0.004,0.059 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.571,0.286,0.861,0.012,-0.017,0.043 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.023,-0.005,0.069 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.028,-0.004,0.074 @@ -28,12 +30,13 @@ Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.051,-0.001,0.11 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.051,0.009,0.117 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.069,0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.027,0.265 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.058,-0.113,-0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.02,-0.063,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.041,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.004,-0.002,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.038,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.002,0.02 @@ -44,12 +47,30 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.032,-0.003,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.032,0.008,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.004,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.106,0.001,0.254 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,0.022,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,0.022,0.111 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,0.022,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.225,0.368 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.051,-0.101,-0.011 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.429,0.139,0.714,-0.013,-0.045,0.017 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.026,0.039 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.025,0.046 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.005,-0.027,0.028 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.015,-0.014,0.048 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.022,-0.009,0.05 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,0.007,0.047 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.025,-0.012,0.063 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.039,0.001,0.08 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.039,-0.014,0.093 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.019,0.107 +t0-beta,TFT,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.113,0.007,0.248 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.038,0.097 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.038,0.097 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.223,0.377 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.121,-0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.074,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.004,-0.011,0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.048,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.044,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.004,-0.004,0.013 @@ -60,12 +81,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,-0.003,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.006,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,0.0,0.113 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.103,-0.008,0.254 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.019,0.105 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.019,0.105 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.019,0.105 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.224,0.365 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.056,-0.077,-0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.038,0.037 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.005,-0.029,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.035,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.025,0.043 @@ -76,12 +98,13 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.005,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.024,0.09 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,0.008,0.103 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.007,0.239 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.124,-0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.028,-0.079,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.009,-0.021,0.002 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.05,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.004,-0.014,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.045,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -92,12 +115,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.002,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.007,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.042,0.004,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.099,-0.014,0.25 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.054,0.022,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.054,0.022,0.092 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.054,0.022,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.215,0.364 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.074,-0.132,-0.026 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.015,-0.028,-0.005 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.022,-0.053,0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.011,-0.026,0.002 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.007,-0.02,0.009 @@ -108,12 +132,13 @@ TiRex,TS-ICL,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.018,0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.017,-0.007,0.048 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.036,-0.006,0.104 TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.093,-0.014,0.239 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.118,-0.047 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.043,-0.09,-0.003 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.023,-0.062,0.007 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.049,-0.007 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.018,-0.06,0.014 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.039,-0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.014 @@ -124,12 +149,13 @@ FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.02,0.042 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.052,0.063 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.081 FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.086,-0.018,0.218 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.366 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.078,-0.148,-0.024 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.098,-0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.018,-0.035,-0.006 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.025,-0.067,0.012 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.014,-0.027,-0.003 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.066,0.024 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.01,-0.022,0.004 @@ -140,12 +166,13 @@ TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.014,-0.019,0.058 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.014,-0.004,0.032 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.011,0.103 TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.031,0.244 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.092 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.092 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.092 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.218,0.352 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.093,-0.148,-0.047 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.054,-0.124,0.001 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.033,-0.079,0.003 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.041,-0.087,-0.001 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.072,0.003 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.07,-0.005 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.057,0.002 @@ -156,12 +183,13 @@ TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.061,0.042 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.016,0.06 TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.077,-0.055,0.224 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,-0.003,0.072 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,-0.003,0.072 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,-0.003,0.072 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.175,0.361 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.093,-0.182,-0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.053,-0.133,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.033,-0.067,-0.008 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.04,-0.103,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.058,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.099,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.024,-0.055,0.007 @@ -172,12 +200,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.043,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.019,-0.042,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.077,-0.063,0.239 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.093 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.093 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.031,-0.021,0.093 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.213,0.338 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.114,-0.188,-0.05 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.074,-0.16,-0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.053,-0.134,-0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.12,-0.019 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.128,-0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.115,-0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.044,-0.112,-0.004 @@ -188,12 +217,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.064,0.016 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.019,-0.118,0.04 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.059,-0.093,0.223 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.03,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.262,0.138,0.349 TFT,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.389,-0.065 TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.36,-0.027 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.119,-0.341,-0.001 +TFT,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.127,-0.329,-0.007 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.115,-0.341,0.008 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.122,-0.315,-0.008 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.11,-0.334,0.014 @@ -204,28 +234,13 @@ TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.083,-0.289,0.052 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.083,-0.314,0.06 TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.063,-0.288,0.085 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.216,0.01,0.356 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.209,-0.065 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.125,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.117,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.057,-0.102,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.101,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.078,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.032,-0.103,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 -Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.209,-0.065 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.125,-0.023 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.108,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.117,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.057,-0.102,-0.022 @@ -236,12 +251,30 @@ Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.078,0.003 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.032,-0.103,0.021 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.209,-0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.125,-0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.108,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.117,-0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.057,-0.102,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.101,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.078,0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.032,-0.103,0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.747,-0.318 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.582,-0.291 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.606,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.575,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.415,-0.573,-0.274 @@ -252,6 +285,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.564,-0.212 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.512,-0.27 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.356,-0.536,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.275,-0.552,-0.01 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv index f7d852da1ae7492bca5cca86ea63714ea9e0d5f6..567daa58fd018d01adc6cb4e890d2c63e9340abb 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,289 +2,289 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.035,-0.01,0.079 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.054,0.002,0.105 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.047,0.011,0.088 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.034,0.079 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.059,0.005,0.114 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.062,0.013,0.113 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.115 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.07,0.021,0.129 TimesFM-3,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.051,0.113 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.049,0.161 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.08,0.014,0.149 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.046,0.122 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.049,0.161 TimesFM-3,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.165,0.07,0.291 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.134,0.046,0.222 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.069,0.214 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.081,0.203 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.347,0.555 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.036,-0.085,0.01 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.02,-0.007,0.057 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.013,-0.012,0.039 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.024,-0.013,0.065 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.025,-0.008,0.07 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.028,-0.004,0.074 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,0.006,0.085 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.013,0.09 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.071,0.011,0.146 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.111 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.049,-0.001,0.106 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.071,0.011,0.146 Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.036,0.278 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.044,0.169 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.047,0.195 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.057,-0.117,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.02,-0.06,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.045,0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.035,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.006,-0.001,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.009,-0.003,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.015,-0.002,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.017,0.002,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.03,-0.001,0.07 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,-0.001,0.124 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.005,0.058 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.03,-0.01,0.073 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.052,-0.001,0.124 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.118,0.011,0.273 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.085,0.042,0.131 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.09,0.027,0.184 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.09,0.028,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.332,0.513 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.05,-0.097,-0.011 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.013,-0.041,0.012 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.031,0.043 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.015,0.033 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.012,-0.029,0.051 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.016,-0.021,0.051 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.006,0.048 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.024,-0.009,0.059 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.017,0.056 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.015,0.088 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.0,0.077 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.016,0.115 +t0-beta,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.021,0.258 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.091,0.023,0.154 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.056,0.146 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.337,0.518 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.061,-0.086,-0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.05,0.034 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.011,-0.034,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.046,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.036,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.031,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.009,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.024,-0.038,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.026,0.007,0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.009,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.011,0.253 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.081,0.002,0.157 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.034,0.158 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.063,-0.128,-0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.026,-0.075,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.006,-0.014,0.001 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.012,-0.054,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.044,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.003,-0.004,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.009,-0.01,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.012,-0.002,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.025,-0.008,0.065 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,-0.005,0.12 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.023,0.002,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.025,-0.015,0.067 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,-0.005,0.12 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.113,-0.0,0.271 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.079,0.038,0.121 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.02,0.178 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.023,0.155 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.327,0.51 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.066,-0.128,-0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.029,-0.08,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.009,-0.022,0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.016,-0.054,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.044,0.035 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.003,-0.012,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.006,-0.011,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.009,-0.004,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.022,-0.008,0.055 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.043,-0.002,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.019,-0.005,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.021,-0.011,0.056 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.043,-0.002,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.11,-0.003,0.266 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.076,0.031,0.122 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.02,0.171 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.081,0.027,0.148 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.323,0.51 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.13,-0.025 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.015,-0.032,0.002 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.022,-0.05,0.006 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.044,0.027 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.009,-0.03,0.01 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.006,-0.024,0.011 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.003,-0.01,0.017 TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.016,-0.011,0.051 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.007,0.11 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.014,-0.013,0.045 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.016,-0.018,0.055 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.038,-0.007,0.11 TiRex,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.105,0.005,0.253 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.022,0.119 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.076,0.016,0.17 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.076,-0.149,-0.021 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.093,-0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.018,-0.037,-0.002 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.025,-0.063,0.009 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.058,0.03 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.012,-0.029,0.002 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.009,-0.023,0.004 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.003,-0.017,0.01 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.021,0.052 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.035,-0.01,0.108 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.011,-0.008,0.031 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.013,-0.023,0.054 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.035,-0.01,0.108 TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.102,-0.012,0.258 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,0.027,0.109 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.074,0.007,0.168 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.073,0.019,0.145 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.322,0.502 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.09,-0.128,-0.054 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.099,-0.013 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.031,-0.076,0.001 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.038,-0.059,-0.017 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.027,-0.039,-0.016 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.026,-0.07,0.008 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.022,-0.059,0.008 FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.053,0.01 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.054,0.021 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.022,-0.011,0.071 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.062,0.048 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.022,0.025 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.022,-0.011,0.071 FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.02,0.235 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.056,-0.021,0.125 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,0.01,0.133 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.021,0.114 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.301,0.504 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.192,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.076,-0.171,-0.011 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.142,0.001 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.051,-0.107,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.136,0.005 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.045,-0.123,0.002 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.039,-0.123,0.007 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.036,-0.121,0.01 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.023,-0.077,0.01 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.025,-0.127,0.037 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.023,-0.079,0.017 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.069,-0.088,0.235 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.085,0.113 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.07 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.014,0.074 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.268,0.502 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.087,-0.175,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.05,-0.125,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.062,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.036,-0.096,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.025,-0.087,0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.051,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.047,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.047,0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.011,-0.032,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.05,0.058 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.024,-0.039,0.113 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.044,0.056 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.024,-0.039,0.113 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.092,-0.042,0.259 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.058,0.027,0.092 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,-0.021,0.175 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.063,-0.005,0.147 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.315,0.494 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.09,-0.138,-0.048 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.119,0.001 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.031,-0.079,0.01 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.083,0.0 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.027,-0.056,-0.007 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.025,-0.071,0.015 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.022,-0.06,0.011 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.016,-0.058,0.017 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.013,-0.057,0.023 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.025,0.022 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.022,-0.017,0.073 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.059,0.042 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.022,-0.017,0.073 TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.031,0.236 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.056,-0.024,0.126 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.061,-0.005,0.136 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.061,0.013,0.118 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.291,0.511 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.192,-0.052 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.076,-0.171,-0.011 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.055,-0.142,0.001 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.13,-0.017 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.051,-0.107,-0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.136,0.005 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.045,-0.123,0.002 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.039,-0.123,0.007 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.036,-0.121,0.01 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.023,-0.077,0.01 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.025,-0.127,0.037 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.023,-0.079,0.017 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.069,-0.088,0.235 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.085,0.113 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.014,0.074 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.268,0.502 TFT,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.198,-0.41,-0.075 TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.385,-0.038 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.133,-0.375,-0.011 +TFT,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.141,-0.348,-0.022 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.129,-0.339,-0.011 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.127,-0.373,0.0 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.123,-0.362,0.003 TFT,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.117,-0.339,-0.005 TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.114,-0.347,0.012 TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.307,0.019 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.075,-0.306,0.081 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.102,-0.35,0.04 TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.309,0.03 +TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.075,-0.306,0.081 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TFT,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.038,-0.282,0.112 -TFT,citras-fm,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.032,-0.252,0.134 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.032,-0.249,0.122 TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.219,0.471 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.155,-0.285,-0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.114,-0.204,-0.046 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.092,-0.151,-0.044 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.1,-0.182,-0.024 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.088,-0.186,-0.002 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.086,-0.137,-0.04 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.083,-0.139,-0.032 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.076,-0.135,-0.022 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.122,-0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.059,-0.143,0.021 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.036,-0.128,0.078 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.062,-0.101,-0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.06,-0.144,0.024 +Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.036,-0.128,0.078 Toto-2.0-4m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.036,-0.126,0.22 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.099,0.142 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.005,-0.083,0.107 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.285,0.456 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.272,-0.074 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.243,-0.049 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.099,-0.225,-0.028 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.187,-0.035 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.092,-0.216,-0.021 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.089,-0.206,-0.021 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.082,-0.205,-0.016 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.079,-0.202,-0.007 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.153,-0.01 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.076,-0.011 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.212,0.021 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.065,-0.157,0.005 -citras-fm,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.031,-0.155,0.201 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.165,0.09 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.0,-0.043,0.04 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.373,0.222,0.484 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.254,-0.089 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.098,-0.195,-0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.171,-0.06 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.092,-0.184,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.089,-0.173,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.079,-0.17,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.129,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.08,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.068,-0.173,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.065,-0.133,-0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.08,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.031,-0.138,0.199 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.005,-0.12,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.0,-0.042,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.851,-1.247,-0.532 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.751,-1.054,-0.497 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.763,-1.073,-0.508 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.092,-0.458 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.742,-1.042,-0.487 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.736,-1.042,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.008,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.698,-1.017,-0.431 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-1.007,-0.366 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-0.977,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.699,-1.044,-0.411 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-1.007,-0.366 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.89,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.837,-0.4 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.594,-0.938,-0.285 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 21f4307f195fc0b0c473327ae4fd1cf56b8739ad..b6c3c38898734b0e201ab7f7e63183cd238a7ab4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -3,13 +3,14 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.012,0.08 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.053,0.011,0.102 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.059,0.012,0.109 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.055,0.016,0.099 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.061,0.017,0.11 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.052,0.032,0.07 TimesFM-3,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.042,0.102 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.025,0.138 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.043,0.123 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.037,0.154 TimesFM-3,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.072,0.029,0.119 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.037,0.154 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.081,0.021,0.145 TimesFM-3,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.045,0.264 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.071,0.158 @@ -19,13 +20,14 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.036,-0.087,0.012 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.02,-0.008,0.067 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.025,-0.01,0.082 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.021,-0.01,0.057 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.028,-0.01,0.083 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.04,0.004,0.081 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.044,0.007,0.106 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.049,-0.002,0.109 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.061,0.008,0.13 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.061,0.008,0.13 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.048,0.009,0.112 Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.018,0.255 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.049,0.113 @@ -35,13 +37,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.056,-0.114,-0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.02,-0.072,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.002,0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.032,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.008,-0.003,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.001,-0.035,0.035 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.021,-0.013,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.011,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.03,0.001,0.071 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.042,-0.012,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.019,0.01,0.03 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.042,-0.012,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,0.01,0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.095,-0.026,0.244 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.063,0.025,0.097 @@ -51,29 +54,48 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.123,-0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.026,-0.09,0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.017,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.045,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.002,-0.006,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.047,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.015,-0.025,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.02,0.007,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.025,-0.002,0.062 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.014,-0.005,0.03 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.023,0.005,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.041,0.244 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.011,0.098 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.012,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.218,0.369 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.058,-0.11,-0.016 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.022,-0.06,0.01 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.035,0.031 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.034,0.043 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.024,0.04 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.003,-0.036,0.02 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.019,0.002,0.033 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.023,-0.017,0.066 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.028,-0.007,0.065 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.018,-0.013,0.044 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.005,0.094 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.027,-0.023,0.073 +t0-beta,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.094,-0.014,0.228 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.062,0.039,0.085 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.034,0.097 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.214,0.374 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.065,-0.124,-0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.028,-0.09,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.008,-0.02,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.002,-0.013,0.006 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.041,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.009,-0.047,0.026 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.022,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.017,0.0,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.022,0.0,0.053 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.02,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.011,-0.008,0.027 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.02,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,-0.005,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.043,0.24 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,0.013,0.093 @@ -83,13 +105,14 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.075,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.001,-0.036,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.035,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.003,-0.02,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.009,-0.027,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,0.007,0.037 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.023,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.031,0.005,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.043,-0.004,0.104 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.043,-0.004,0.104 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.03,-0.023,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.096,-0.01,0.224 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.035,0.097 @@ -99,13 +122,14 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.114,-0.044 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.088,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.021,-0.065,0.012 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.016,-0.06,0.024 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.002 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.013,-0.052,0.021 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.039,-0.007 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.048,0.051 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.009,-0.022,0.043 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.021,0.077 FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.043,0.031 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.021,0.077 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.054,0.06 FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.076,-0.033,0.205 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.023,0.067 @@ -115,13 +139,14 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.161,-0.025 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.119,-0.007 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.046,-0.011 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.007 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.024,-0.071,0.017 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.018,-0.035,-0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.08,0.022 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.054,0.045 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.032,0.053 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.017,-0.051,0.103 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.006,-0.029,0.012 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.017,-0.051,0.103 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.004,-0.006,0.011 TiRex-2,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.072,-0.075,0.231 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.039,-0.009,0.081 @@ -131,61 +156,65 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.14,-0.045 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.122,0.002 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.031,-0.076,-0.001 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.067,0.002 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.029,-0.07,0.007 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.023,-0.056,-0.0 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.032,-0.064,-0.005 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.009,-0.045,0.022 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.056,0.031 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.012,-0.036,0.063 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.011,-0.056,0.023 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.012,-0.036,0.063 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.001,-0.06,0.039 TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.067,-0.071,0.214 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.019,0.08 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.036,-0.002,0.081 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.173,0.365 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.182,-0.038 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.065,-0.149,-0.008 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.043,-0.136,0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.038,-0.131,0.023 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.116,0.02 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.045,-0.116,0.004 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.022,-0.084,0.02 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.017,-0.114,0.048 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.012,-0.067,0.035 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.113,0.029 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.013,-0.121,0.057 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.056,-0.099,0.215 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,-0.05,0.073 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.016,0.062 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.27,0.138,0.362 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.077,-0.135,-0.03 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.031,-0.01 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.014,-0.031,0.005 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.018,-0.046,0.013 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.012,-0.028,0.008 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016 TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.031,0.041 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.006,-0.012,0.028 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.011,-0.023,0.053 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.023,-0.03,0.101 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.023,-0.03,0.101 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.01,-0.011,0.034 TiRex,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.077,-0.044,0.226 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.045,0.01,0.078 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.182,-0.038 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.065,-0.149,-0.008 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.043,-0.136,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.038,-0.131,0.023 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.104,-0.005 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.116,0.02 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.045,-0.116,0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.022,-0.084,0.02 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.017,-0.114,0.048 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.012,-0.067,0.035 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.113,0.029 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.013,-0.121,0.057 +TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.056,-0.099,0.215 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,-0.05,0.073 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,-0.016,0.062 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.27,0.138,0.362 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.088,-0.169,-0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.051,-0.127,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.054,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.024,-0.041,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.028,-0.079,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.022,-0.044,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.031,-0.088,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.064,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.004,-0.011,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.001,-0.041,0.057 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.013,-0.061,0.108 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.01,-0.036,0.011 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.013,-0.061,0.108 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.068,-0.079,0.229 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.018,0.083 @@ -195,13 +224,14 @@ TFT,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.359,-0.048 TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.342,-0.018 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.105,-0.322,0.025 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.323,0.04 +TFT,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.103,-0.296,0.014 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.096,-0.317,0.041 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.289,0.01 TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.082,-0.258,0.032 TFT,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.077,-0.3,0.069 TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.072,-0.272,0.066 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.059,-0.273,0.09 TFT,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.084,-0.292,0.042 +TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.059,-0.273,0.09 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.073,-0.296,0.073 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.035,-0.202,0.071 @@ -211,13 +241,14 @@ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.187,-0.076 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.128,-0.052 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.067,-0.108,-0.026 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.108,-0.011 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.066,-0.093,-0.04 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.102,-0.013 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.108,-0.036 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.072,-0.023 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.041,-0.088,0.009 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.086,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.079,0.047 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.047,-0.085,-0.01 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.079,0.047 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.037,-0.091,0.017 TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.034,-0.077,0.168 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -227,13 +258,14 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.13,-0.214,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.136,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.131,-0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.107,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.116,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.109,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.037,-0.088,0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.115,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 @@ -243,13 +275,14 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.767,-0.313 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.591,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.584,-0.279 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.597,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.577,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.59,-0.233 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.393,-0.54,-0.267 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.576,-0.209 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.37,-0.567,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.37,-0.567,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.53,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.293,-0.583,-0.023 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.495,-0.195 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv index f56fcddc7ba2641c1b159893b8cde7d059f27ce1..e405e41baa8a469d8225badecbbe32bca4fd707a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,289 +2,289 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.012,0.081 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.051,0.002,0.101 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,0.015,0.094 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.032,0.081 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.058,0.009,0.108 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.059,0.005,0.116 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.035,0.161 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.047,0.113 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.045,0.111 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.142 TimesFM-3,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.07,0.028,0.119 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.142 +TimesFM-3,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.047,0.113 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.079,0.014,0.146 TimesFM-3,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.058,0.276 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.087,0.187 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.065,0.222 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.076,0.211 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.349,0.562 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.036,-0.088,0.012 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.011,0.06 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.02,-0.009,0.051 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.024,-0.011,0.075 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.026,-0.011,0.079 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.062,0.008,0.137 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.014,0.086 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,-0.003,0.099 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.008,0.102 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.008,0.102 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.014,0.086 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.046,0.006,0.107 Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.122,0.025,0.267 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.058,0.168 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.047,0.2 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.347,0.528 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.054,-0.113,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.064,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.034,0.04 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.006,-0.032,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.004,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.001,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.045,-0.012,0.127 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.031,-0.002,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,-0.006,0.07 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.012,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.02,0.006,0.035 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.028,0.012,0.048 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.031,-0.002,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.029,0.01,0.052 Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.107,-0.013,0.261 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.094,0.031,0.161 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.091,0.019,0.194 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.094,0.03,0.174 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.333,0.522 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.104,-0.015 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.02,-0.053,0.008 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.041,0.033 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.003,-0.022,0.027 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.005,-0.032,0.043 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.006,-0.038,0.05 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.042,0.001,0.105 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.025,-0.01,0.062 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.017,-0.009,0.042 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.025,-0.014,0.068 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,0.011,0.045 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.026,-0.025,0.077 +t0-beta,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.104,0.003,0.24 +t0-beta,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.032,0.173 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.046,0.151 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.334,0.522 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.06,-0.088,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.07,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.006,-0.053,0.031 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.003,-0.028,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.001,-0.04,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.049,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.039,-0.001,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.015,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.022,0.005,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.03,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.022,-0.03,0.071 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.015,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.023,-0.039,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.101,-0.006,0.24 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.042,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.03,0.162 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.315,0.529 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.062,-0.121,-0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.025,-0.081,0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.02,0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.005,-0.045,0.031 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.001,-0.042,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,0.001,-0.009,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.038,-0.019,0.114 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.024,-0.01,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.008,0.054 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,0.004,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.013,-0.008,0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,0.004,0.037 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.024,-0.01,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,-0.0,0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.1,-0.028,0.257 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.087,0.019,0.157 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.01,0.182 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.087,0.027,0.16 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.323,0.521 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.132,-0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.026,-0.086,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.009,-0.022,0.001 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.006,-0.052,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.051,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.143,0.861,-0.001,-0.009,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.037,-0.03,0.122 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.023,-0.019,0.068 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.015,0.061 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.02,0.008,0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.012,-0.012,0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.02,0.008,0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.023,-0.019,0.068 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.021,0.007,0.035 Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.099,-0.032,0.257 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.086,0.015,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.084,0.002,0.189 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.086,0.019,0.168 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.326,0.518 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.192,-0.036 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.066,-0.159,-0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.047,-0.145,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.044,-0.117,-0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.041,-0.104,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.04,-0.129,0.019 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.038,-0.139,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.014,-0.075,0.022 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.018,-0.08,0.032 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.018,-0.123,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.026,-0.119,0.026 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.018,-0.123,0.051 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.714,0.286,1.0,-0.014,-0.075,0.022 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.017,-0.132,0.058 TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.064,-0.093,0.23 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.051,-0.033,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.027,0.077 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.029,0.085 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.27,0.515 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.128,-0.049 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.094,-0.014 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.032,-0.079,0.002 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.037,-0.015 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.025,-0.063,0.01 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.024,-0.073,0.019 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.014,-0.022,0.069 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.027,0.023 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.054,0.042 -FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.049,0.016 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.065,0.051 -FlowState,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.078,-0.035,0.221 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.021,0.112 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.062,0.009,0.139 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.123 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.304,0.514 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.125,-0.047 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.11,0.003 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.075,0.006 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.026,-0.066,0.009 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.023,-0.047,-0.005 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.058,0.008 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.065,0.014 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.018,-0.033,0.074 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.023,0.026 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.049,0.041 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.051,0.024 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.0,-0.049,0.041 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.023,0.026 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.001,-0.056,0.049 TS-ICL,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.041,0.223 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.068,0.0,0.127 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.065,-0.005,0.146 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,0.014,0.128 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.296,0.522 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.166,-0.025 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.114,-0.008 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.051,-0.012 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.076,0.029 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.021,-0.038,-0.004 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.008 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.018,-0.053,0.11 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.043,0.051 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.043,0.047 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.034,0.012 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.001,-0.01,0.011 -TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.058,0.241 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.068,-0.009,0.143 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.065,-0.023,0.177 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.068,0.001,0.151 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.321,0.501 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.134,-0.029 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.037,-0.006 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.018,-0.044,0.009 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.013,-0.032,0.007 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.012,-0.034,0.012 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.027,0.107 -TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.016,0.046 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.025,0.048 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.012,0.033 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.008,-0.012,0.033 +TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.016,0.046 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.009,-0.017,0.041 TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.023,0.237 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.075,0.013,0.139 TiRex,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.073,0.002,0.175 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.166,-0.025 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.114,-0.008 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.051,-0.012 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.026,-0.073,0.014 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.023,-0.076,0.029 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.021,-0.038,-0.004 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.02,-0.034,-0.008 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.018,-0.053,0.11 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.0,-0.043,0.047 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.008,-0.034,0.012 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.043,0.051 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.001,-0.01,0.011 +TiRex-2,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.058,0.241 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.065,-0.023,0.177 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.068,0.001,0.151 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.321,0.501 +FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.128,-0.049 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.094,-0.014 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.032,-0.079,0.002 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.029,-0.048,-0.012 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.037,-0.015 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.025,-0.063,0.01 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.024,-0.073,0.019 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,0.014,-0.022,0.069 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.027,0.023 +FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.049,0.016 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.054,0.042 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.065,0.051 +FlowState,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.078,-0.035,0.221 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.062,0.009,0.139 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.123 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.304,0.514 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.085,-0.171,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.048,-0.12,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.03,-0.055,-0.01 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.027,-0.083,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.024,-0.086,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.021,-0.037,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.017,-0.062,0.117 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.054,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.001,-0.051,0.053 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.001,-0.011,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.009,-0.042,0.017 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.001,-0.011,0.01 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.054,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.08,-0.064,0.248 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.067,-0.017,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,-0.029,0.184 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.067,-0.009,0.156 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.32,0.502 TFT,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.381,-0.061 TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.139,-0.364,-0.026 TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.119,-0.353,0.013 +TFT,t0-beta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.116,-0.316,-0.003 TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.113,-0.315,0.006 TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.111,-0.346,0.027 TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.11,-0.346,0.031 TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.069,-0.298,0.085 -TFT,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.084,-0.283,0.034 TFT,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.287,0.04 -TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.317,0.055 TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.097,-0.311,0.022 +TFT,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.317,0.055 +TFT,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.084,-0.283,0.034 TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.087,-0.329,0.06 TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.142,0.075 TFT,citras-fm,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.017,-0.229,0.146 TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.221,0.136 TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.241,0.486 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.163,-0.23,-0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.061 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.103,-0.191,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.154,-0.044 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.186,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.094,-0.187,-0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.054,-0.135,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.126,-0.022 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.072,-0.146,-0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.166,0.009 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.081,-0.161,-0.013 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.071,-0.175,0.017 -TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.081,0.124 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.096,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.0,-0.087,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.276,0.476 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.285,-0.069 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.251,-0.049 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.101,-0.241,-0.019 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.209,-0.033 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.194,-0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.222,-0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.091,-0.232,-0.002 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.051,-0.084,-0.028 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.066,-0.162,-0.009 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.17,0.005 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.215,0.022 citras-fm,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.079,-0.213,-0.002 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.07,-0.215,0.022 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.066,-0.162,-0.009 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.069,-0.226,0.028 citras-fm,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.017,-0.171,0.186 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.116,0.088 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.003,-0.044,0.048 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.379,0.221,0.494 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.163,-0.268,-0.082 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.104,-0.21,-0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.177,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.19,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.094,-0.201,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.054,-0.093,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.073,-0.147,-0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.073,-0.178,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.073,-0.178,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.072,-0.185,0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.158,0.181 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.0,-0.094,0.08 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.003,-0.05,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.868,-1.286,-0.535 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.12,-0.532 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.094,-0.499 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.09,-0.502 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.759,-1.087,-0.477 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.076,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-1.063,-0.37 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-1.057,-0.436 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.093,-0.42 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.006,-0.472 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.006,-0.472 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-1.057,-0.436 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.008,-0.47 Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.946,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.908,-0.381 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.61,-0.975,-0.284 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv index caa6c43391c02723eba59ec0e4281074e1643626..d9e9621edabc384acd9c3c4e0028d3a4140ffa7b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,90.66666666666666,32.670141043316725,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,87.33333333333336,32.66797317900995,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.33333333333336,30.201739251352212,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.33333333333333,29.260350065108376,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,76.6666666666667,29.209520364239804,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.00000000000001,29.93563029482772,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,73.33333333333333,29.99164696817904,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,72.00000000000001,29.357226912555344,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.33333333333333,29.754752173256584,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.66666666666664,28.93605738519158,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.66666666666667,29.394157929053712,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.66666666666667,28.76118230177598,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.666666666666636,27.399232776718353,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -TS-ICL,60.666666666666636,27.337264578289744,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,59.99999999999998,27.294413166287423,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.333333333333314,27.802663844137786,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,57.333333333333336,27.78289022024678,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,47.333333333333336,24.109596179935487,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.33333333333332,23.420687735560985,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,43.33333333333332,23.98149756470208,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,41.333333333333314,21.542038924284434,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,29.33333333333333,17.97726241921238,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.666666666666657,-29.622695283539358,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -TFT,17.333333333333336,11.739357763049185,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.333333333333336,7.795601696116828,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,16.0,9.449688890714715,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.333333333333334,4.078700196776586,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,13.333333333333334,4.1721599099919455,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,12.666666666666664,4.184526702220593,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,11.333333333333332,3.384538751976529,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.333333333333334,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,90.32258064516128,32.670141043316725,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,89.6774193548387,32.01293033595749,0.0,4.218731696663392,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.80645161290323,32.66797317900995,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.06451612903226,30.201739251352212,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.83870967741936,29.260350065108376,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,74.83870967741936,29.209520364239804,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.90322580645162,29.93563029482772,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.25806451612902,29.99164696817904,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.3225806451613,29.357226912555344,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,69.03225806451613,29.754752173256584,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,67.41935483870968,28.93605738519158,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.45161290322581,29.394157929053712,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.64516129032258,28.76118230177598,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,59.67741935483871,27.399232776718353,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.354838709677416,27.337264578289744,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.06451612903226,27.294413166287423,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.419354838709666,27.802663844137786,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,55.48387096774194,27.78289022024678,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,45.80645161290323,23.420687735560985,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,45.80645161290323,24.109596179935487,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,41.935483870967744,23.98149756470208,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,40.0,21.542038924284434,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.387096774193548,-29.622695283539358,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,28.387096774193544,17.97726241921238,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +TFT,16.7741935483871,11.739357763049185,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.7741935483871,7.795601696116828,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,15.483870967741936,9.449688890714715,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.903225806451612,4.078700196776586,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,12.903225806451612,4.1721599099919455,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,12.258064516129032,4.184526702220593,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,10.967741935483872,3.384538751976529,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.03225806451613,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv index bdbd7540fad2612a97fa3c4be56ba097d1322baa..176d5baa85a8423a0f28b24a97c6e880f3fdf49e 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,91.33333333333334,40.347061778148706,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,88.00000000000003,40.14261361598851,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,83.33333333333334,38.09386445171089,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.0,37.43876342889425,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.66666666666669,37.83157222733069,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.00000000000001,37.66612649055474,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.0,37.58550747009978,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,72.66666666666667,37.188322050437485,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,70.66666666666667,36.04259739782568,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,68.66666666666667,36.31166826953211,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.66666666666663,36.03582808206656,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,65.33333333333331,35.85151872644183,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.66666666666667,36.293037504059534,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.33333333333331,34.85309081790271,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.999999999999986,35.99499337037837,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,59.333333333333314,35.936651145406394,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,54.666666666666664,32.679408744349004,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,52.66666666666665,32.757599647708304,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.66666666666666,30.90991527640704,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.999999999999986,17.231323121576647,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,32.66666666666666,22.423106139028192,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -TFT,28.666666666666675,18.511138237688506,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,26.0,17.09711611460085,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.33333333333334,-136.42889638840893,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.666666666666664,9.609592105853038,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,17.333333333333336,-2.841792105310592,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.000000000000004,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,12.666666666666668,-6.491295800307162,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,12.666666666666664,-6.505040508588555,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.666666666666667,-23.56398425913284,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.666666666666667,-28.21332719128542,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,93.54838709677419,39.93945084542874,0.0,4.218731696663392,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,90.32258064516128,40.347061778148706,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.4516129032258,40.14261361598851,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,81.29032258064515,38.09386445171089,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.41935483870968,37.43876342889425,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.48387096774192,37.83157222733069,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.25806451612904,37.66612649055474,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,71.61290322580646,37.58550747009978,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.3225806451613,37.188322050437485,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,69.03225806451613,36.04259739782568,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,66.45161290322581,36.31166826953211,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.48387096774194,36.03582808206656,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.22580645161291,35.85151872644183,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,60.64516129032259,36.293037504059534,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.32258064516128,34.85309081790271,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.00000000000001,35.99499337037837,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,57.41935483870968,35.936651145406394,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,52.9032258064516,32.679408744349004,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,50.967741935483865,32.757599647708304,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.2258064516129,30.90991527640704,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.774193548387096,17.231323121576647,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,31.612903225806456,22.423106139028192,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +TFT,27.74193548387097,18.511138237688506,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.161290322580648,17.09711611460085,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,22.58064516129032,-136.42889638840893,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.935483870967744,9.609592105853038,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,16.7741935483871,-2.841792105310592,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.48387096774194,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,12.258064516129034,-6.491295800307162,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,12.258064516129032,-6.505040508588555,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.451612903225806,-23.56398425913284,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.5806451612903225,-28.21332719128542,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 533c16cd080734ea84291a5f24be011788cc8f40..03bf00b4fe2ef6dd0769b52a5dfd3a3541c1204b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,94.0,49.34062027846541,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.33333333333336,46.261525282913595,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.6666666666667,47.03832863128653,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.33333333333336,47.015579237547286,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.33333333333333,46.63720411823188,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,74.66666666666667,45.94421147950074,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.66666666666667,46.712323883118025,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.66666666666666,45.26550169523424,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,69.33333333333334,45.658876884431066,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.99999999999999,45.234350223405905,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,66.33333333333333,44.270996715968245,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,65.99999999999999,44.57858046889211,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.33333333333331,45.58255213545739,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,64.66666666666666,44.24561217925266,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.33333333333333,43.560110317907345,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,61.333333333333314,44.832337002858004,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,54.66666666666665,43.22149190972845,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.66666666666666,42.24241790735197,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.66666666666665,36.39656206472499,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,40.66666666666665,37.25191993036196,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.333333333333314,32.15916008390624,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.33333333333332,-7.089563361203255,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -TFT,26.0,31.89215730204118,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,25.333333333333336,32.26789204762996,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,23.333333333333332,30.485156307041137,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,18.000000000000004,-5.351235687949107,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.0,25.364806013828144,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.666666666666668,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.0,15.777737575686047,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,9.333333333333332,9.204507505376158,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,8.000000000000002,-21.610796222594896,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,92.90322580645162,49.34062027846541,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,87.74193548387098,47.98899025173004,0.0,4.218731696663392,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.41935483870968,47.03832863128653,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.7741935483871,46.261525282913595,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.19354838709677,47.015579237547286,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.19354838709677,46.63720411823188,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.54838709677419,46.712323883118025,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.54838709677419,45.94421147950074,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.96774193548387,45.26550169523424,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,68.38709677419355,45.658876884431066,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.4516129032258,45.234350223405905,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,64.19354838709677,44.270996715968245,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.870967741935495,44.57858046889211,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,63.870967741935466,45.58255213545739,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.58064516129031,44.24561217925266,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.322580645161295,43.560110317907345,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,60.00000000000001,44.832337002858004,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,52.9032258064516,43.22149190972845,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,49.032258064516135,42.24241790735197,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.29032258064516,36.39656206472499,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,39.354838709677416,37.25191993036196,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.12903225806451,32.15916008390624,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.387096774193548,-7.089563361203255,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,25.161290322580648,31.89215730204118,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,24.516129032258068,32.26789204762996,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.58064516129032,30.485156307041137,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,17.419354838709676,-5.351235687949107,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.483870967741936,25.364806013828144,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.32258064516129,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.67741935483871,15.777737575686047,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,9.032258064516128,9.204507505376158,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,7.74193548387097,-21.610796222594896,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 3bedfc1e837400f6dac79355274d47469788cb21..8b0486165324f0cc3a6e7b7a2b525fd07eec4935 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,92.66666666666669,67.23892830830083,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,81.33333333333337,65.24685534837047,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,80.6666666666667,65.46785431424527,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,76.6666666666667,65.09181820451573,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.6666666666667,65.47877258222164,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.99999999999999,65.02250890932473,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,72.00000000000003,65.08289133257598,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,71.99999999999999,63.901555686088926,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,71.33333333333334,64.93808949583952,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,69.33333333333334,64.33412565306647,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,68.66666666666667,64.78913859128755,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,65.99999999999999,64.30734538835908,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,65.99999999999999,63.60825806205861,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,65.33333333333336,63.75038371377927,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.99999999999997,63.27794107878868,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.33333333333331,62.94483721709532,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,57.999999999999986,63.91544587103641,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.66666666666665,62.22591860898127,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.99999999999999,52.74866339515212,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,34.666666666666664,56.14683480931129,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.66666666666665,10.0322967065957,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 -TFT,30.666666666666664,54.31239646459889,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.666666666666657,26.636130811588664,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,28.000000000000004,53.40506481164482,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,20.666666666666668,-162.5181303956725,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,18.666666666666664,28.559039675458386,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.333333333333336,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,13.333333333333334,4.312518151888689,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,13.333333333333334,-21.431026745629268,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.333333333333334,-59.16477242026188,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.0000000000000004,-65.48141502161853,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,92.25806451612904,67.23892830830083,0.0,5.4817234602246785,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,83.87096774193549,66.12675942713683,0.0,4.218731696663392,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,80.0,65.46785431424527,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.0,65.24685534837047,0.0,0.5037701877188825,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.48387096774192,65.47877258222164,0.0,1.0491609395238097,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,75.48387096774192,65.09181820451573,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.54838709677418,65.02250890932473,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.96774193548387,63.901555686088926,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,70.3225806451613,65.08289133257598,0.0,2.6320384638095238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.6774193548387,64.93808949583952,0.0,5.480653777619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,67.74193548387096,64.33412565306647,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,67.74193548387096,64.78913859128755,0.0,0.288075893939394,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,64.51612903225806,64.30734538835908,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.51612903225806,63.60825806205861,0.0,2.3397720910989763,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.22580645161291,63.75038371377927,0.0,3.338946787241314,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.903225806451616,63.27794107878868,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,60.32258064516128,62.94483721709532,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,56.12903225806451,63.91544587103641,0.0,0.2509964376623377,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,49.032258064516135,62.22591860898127,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.83870967741935,52.74866339515212,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,33.54838709677419,56.14683480931129,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.61290322580645,10.0322967065957,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +TFT,29.677419354838708,54.31239646459889,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.741935483870968,26.636130811588664,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,27.09677419354839,53.40506481164482,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,20.000000000000004,-162.5181303956725,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,18.064516129032256,28.559039675458386,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.7741935483871,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,12.903225806451612,-21.431026745629268,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,12.903225806451612,4.312518151888689,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.161290322580645,-59.16477242026188,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.9354838709677424,-65.48141502161853,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv index 9a5a134b7482929f51869cda7280512b5a1c286a..0a6a6b32bfba803b0f2d8136d63b678408c65dd4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,11 +1,12 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.01,-0.022,0.032 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.023,0.023 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,0.007,0.07 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.001,0.098 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.015,0.067 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.008,0.089 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.038,0.016,0.059 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.001,0.098 +TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.008,0.089 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.003,0.097 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.042,0.011,0.071 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.002,0.104 @@ -13,15 +14,31 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,0.005,0.084 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.124 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.017,0.122 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.019,0.089 -TimesFM-3,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.018,0.127 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.25,0.402 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.01,-0.034,0.022 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.01,-0.04,0.019 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,0.002,0.056 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.005,0.062 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.029,-0.001,0.057 +t0-beta,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.01,0.078 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.04,0.003,0.078 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.038,0.007,0.071 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.032,0.006,0.063 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.014,0.082 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.013,0.064 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.015,0.111 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.028,0.099 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.046,0.018,0.079 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.247,0.39 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.023,0.022 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.01,-0.02,0.038 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,0.009,0.061 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.039,-0.004,0.083 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.007,0.087 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.038,-0.003,0.078 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.007,0.087 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.047,-0.008,0.1 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,-0.004,0.092 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087 @@ -29,15 +46,15 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.018,0.129 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.006,0.112 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.075,-0.007 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,-0.002 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.065,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.01,0.032 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.044 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.014,-0.004,0.029 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.003,-0.047,0.038 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.01,0.032 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.014,-0.004,0.029 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.012,-0.043,0.062 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.047,0.048 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.009,0.042 @@ -45,31 +62,15 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.03,0.051 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.039,0.002,0.08 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.039,0.001,0.069 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.036,0.063 -TiRex-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.04,0.009,0.071 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.232,0.375 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.109,0.001 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.013,-0.033,0.01 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.075,0.043 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.015,0.016 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.076,0.039 -TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.046 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.07,0.039 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.011,0.068 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.007,-0.056,0.052 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.072,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.066,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.041,-0.09,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.046,0.046 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.045,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.01,-0.034,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.013,0.01 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.045,0.07 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.01,-0.034,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.035,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.014,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.051,0.078 @@ -77,31 +78,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.028,0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.016,0.09 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,-0.033,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.016,-0.004,0.03 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.033,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.389 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.008 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.095,-0.007 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.029,0.004 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.017,0.014 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.01,-0.07,0.033 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.07,0.025 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.061,0.045 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.008,-0.066,0.031 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.024,0.033 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.049,0.033 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.012,0.066 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.008,0.057 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.055,0.047 -citras-fm,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.003,0.054 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.218,0.374 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.063,-0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.03,-0.06,0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.04,-0.084,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.003,-0.039,0.045 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.04,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.01,0.013 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.026,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.04,0.071 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.026,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.033,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.003,-0.018,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.043,0.078 @@ -109,15 +94,47 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.03,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.024,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.027,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.017,-0.008,0.04 -Toto-2.0-1B,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.024,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.204,0.387 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.109,0.001 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.085,-0.01 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.013,-0.033,0.01 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.075,0.043 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.076,0.039 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.015,0.016 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.046 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.07,0.039 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.011,0.068 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.007,-0.056,0.052 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364 +citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.008 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.085,-0.003 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.095,-0.007 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.029,0.004 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.01,-0.07,0.033 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.07,0.025 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.017,0.014 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.061,0.045 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.008,-0.066,0.031 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.024,0.033 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.049,0.033 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.012,0.066 +citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.008,0.057 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.006,-0.055,0.047 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.218,0.374 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.108,0.003 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.077,-0.007 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.049,-0.111,0.008 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.012,-0.066,0.041 -FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.049,0.058 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.055,0.034 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.047,0.057 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.047,0.032 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.049,0.058 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.047,0.057 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.049,0.029 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.045,0.063 @@ -125,15 +142,15 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.036,0.025 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.05,0.087 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.071 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.032,0.041 -FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.018,0.084 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.19,0.386 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.077,-0.011 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.033,-0.067,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.102,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.05,0.045 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.04,0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.003,-0.013,0.014 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.008,-0.032,0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.003,-0.022,0.017 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.04,0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.008,-0.032,0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.029,0.046 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.047,0.071 @@ -141,15 +158,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.014,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.012,0.083 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.028,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.014,0.008,0.02 -Toto-2.0-313m,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.03,0.099 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.2,0.385 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.115,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.089,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.044,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.085,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.034,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.085,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.034,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.067,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.077,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -157,15 +174,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.022,0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.066,0.059 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.039,-0.068,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.053,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.033,0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.034,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.033,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.034,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.025,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.024,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06 @@ -173,15 +190,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.018,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.008,0.026 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.142,-0.02 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.125,-0.015 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.148,-0.019 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.041,-0.087,-0.002 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.073,0.011 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.099,0.016 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.071,0.012 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.103,0.023 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.073,0.011 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.071,0.012 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.096,0.048 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.09,0.012 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.087,0.022 @@ -189,15 +206,15 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.077,0.018 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.063,0.062 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.075,0.025 -TS-ICL,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.074,0.066 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.177,0.354 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.139,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.11,-0.029 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.04,-0.074,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.109,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.06,0.008 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.102,0.026 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.06,0.008 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.076,0.007 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.098,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 @@ -205,15 +222,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.066,0.059 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.081,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.098,-0.02 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.048,-0.086,-0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.126,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.068,0.035 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.007,-0.054,0.053 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.017,-0.031,0.004 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.049,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.041,0.008 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.007,-0.054,0.053 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.006,-0.049,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.043,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.014,-0.02,-0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.062,0.062 @@ -221,31 +238,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.027,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.026,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.041,0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.047,0.088 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.185,0.377 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.145,-0.018 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028 -Sundial-Base,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.042,-0.076,-0.009 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.058,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.112,0.032 -Sundial-Base,citras-fm,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.057,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.106,0.024 -Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.092,0.018 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.035,-0.11,0.029 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028 -Sundial-Base,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.071,0.069 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.096,0.045 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.671,-0.333 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.64,-0.329 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.6,-0.302 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.636,-0.254 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.597,-0.278 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.428,-0.63,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.597,-0.278 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.628,-0.234 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.625,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3 @@ -253,5 +254,4 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.549,-0.214 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.606,-0.227 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv index b9efc5aba2c6915f961d9c2675b3f77ba7943a97..9a1235769a5808f4a9f94f0cb0d53c32d111b230 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.032,0.024 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.033,0.026 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.007,0.06 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.034,-0.002,0.073 +t0-beta,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.012,0.078 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,0.002,0.069 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.038,0.01,0.077 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.061,0.012,0.118 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.022,0.071 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.011,0.123 +t0-beta,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.029,0.086 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.024,0.102 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.027,0.138 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.024,0.106 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.314,0.465 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.025,0.031 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.003,-0.021,0.027 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,0.005,0.075 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.005,0.1 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.015,0.071 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.005,0.1 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.017,0.069 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.044,0.013,0.078 -TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.008,0.086 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.067,0.006,0.128 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.063,0.013,0.112 +TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.008,0.086 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.007,0.14 +TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.063,0.013,0.112 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.025,0.113 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.084,0.01,0.155 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.068,0.026,0.107 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.023,0.109 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.314,0.473 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.026,0.032 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.003,-0.028,0.02 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,0.009,0.058 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.009,0.087 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.086 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,-0.004,0.098 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.114 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.111 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.111 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.067,0.022,0.113 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.122 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.128 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.007 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.082,-0.005 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.061,-0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.01,-0.012,0.03 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.049,0.047 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.01,-0.012,0.03 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.048,0.047 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.045,0.057 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.029,0.053 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.063 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.027,0.075 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.029,0.053 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.013,0.076 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.027,0.075 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,0.007,0.069 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.003,0.091 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,-0.031,0.086 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.298,0.44 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.111,0.005 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.03,0.011 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.072,0.052 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.067,0.05 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.064,0.049 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.005,0.044 -TiRex,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.036,0.059 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.006,0.061 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.026,0.07 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.077 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.035,-0.079,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.042,-0.077,-0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.096,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.05,0.047 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.055,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.055,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.005,0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.014,0.014 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.025,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.038,0.105 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.021,0.069 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.01,-0.025,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.061,0.114 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.021,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.031,-0.014,0.08 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.046,-0.043,0.127 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.006,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.002,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.265,0.462 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.042,-0.085,-0.012 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.111,0.005 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.03,0.011 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.072,0.052 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.067,0.05 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.064,0.049 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.005,0.044 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049 +TiRex,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.036,0.059 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.006,0.061 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.077 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.075,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.075,-0.018 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.041,-0.094,0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.049,0.046 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.052,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.003,-0.011,0.005 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.052,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.018,0.017 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.028,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.036,0.101 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.021,-0.019,0.06 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.008,-0.028,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.059,0.106 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.021,-0.019,0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.016,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.041,0.124 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.008,0.053 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.006,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.269,0.459 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.039,-0.083,-0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.085,-0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.109,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.06,0.043 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.051,0.06 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.014,0.014 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.051,0.06 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.017,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.014,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.039,0.097 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.017,0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.014,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.056,0.106 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.017,0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.005,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.039,0.116 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,0.008,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.02,0.01,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.261,0.456 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.094,-0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.056,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.038,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.032,0.027 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.018,0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.002,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.04 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.065,-0.134,-0.013 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.072,-0.147,-0.006 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.129,-0.011 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.068,0.001 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.046,0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.029,-0.117,0.037 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.046,0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.112,0.035 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.108,0.038 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.095,0.033 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.077,0.04 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.095,0.033 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.033,0.032 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.077,0.04 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.045,0.053 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.048 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.066,0.057 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.094,0.063 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.27,0.432 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.126,-0.013 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.007 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.081,0.026 -FlowState,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.062,0.035 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.024,-0.074,0.021 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.064,0.019 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.069,0.016 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.048,0.01 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.042,0.072 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.057,0.083 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.062,0.057 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.025,0.086 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.045,0.044 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.049,0.047 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.261,0.444 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.077,-0.023 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.094,-0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.056,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.01,-0.038,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.008,-0.032,0.027 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.018,0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.04 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.14,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.162,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.082,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.129,0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.118,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.119,0.053 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.033,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.091,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.091,0.054 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.003,-0.057,0.065 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.079,0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.105,0.084 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.06,-0.094,-0.03 +FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.126,-0.013 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.007 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.081,0.026 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.024,-0.074,0.021 +FlowState,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.062,0.035 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.064,0.019 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.069,0.016 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.042,0.072 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.048,0.01 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.057,0.083 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.062,0.057 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.025,0.086 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.049,0.047 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.261,0.444 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.114,-0.024 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.127,-0.026 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.127,-0.023 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.074,-0.007 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.065,0.006 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.032,-0.087,0.014 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.065,0.006 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.082,0.016 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.074,0.005 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.062,0.018 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.056,0.043 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.06,0.059 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.062,0.018 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.003,-0.07,0.054 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.06,0.059 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.046,0.073 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.033,0.022 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.06,0.029 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.246,0.424 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.16,-0.027 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.092,-0.184,-0.01 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.1,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.048,-0.145,0.041 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.142,0.039 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.132,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.051,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.095,0.025 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.095,0.025 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.079,0.044 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.091,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.117,0.061 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.073,-0.12,-0.026 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.02 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.083,0.007 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.075,0.025 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.056,0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.056,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.043,-0.008 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.037,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.062 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.046,0.043 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.023,0.032 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.054,0.084 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.026,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.24,0.437 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.061,-0.118,-0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.122,-0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.146,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.094,0.03 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.084,0.048 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.046,0.002 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.084,0.048 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.051,0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.021,-0.034,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.042,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.068,0.086 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.049,0.046 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.042,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.092,0.095 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.049,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.03,0.057 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.065,0.105 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.012,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.235,0.45 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-0.868,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.676,-0.899,-0.458 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.785,-0.424 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.858,-0.361 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.604,-0.85,-0.369 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-0.837,-0.353 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-0.762,-0.37 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.797,-0.352 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.797,-0.352 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.737,-0.327 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.775,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.819,-0.307 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 944f403097e1f886503303fa4f951fb819554f10..9b4ad0026717fa5d6155eb2b5f7894bcef4bcd76 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.023,0.093 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,0.002,0.048 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.0,0.089 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.044,0.003,0.083 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,0.002,0.093 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,0.007,0.09 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.044,0.003,0.083 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.063,0.008,0.124 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.057,0.023,0.093 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,0.007,0.09 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.03,0.117 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.019,0.114 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.075,0.03,0.11 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.042,0.12 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.027,0.157 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.069,0.02,0.112 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.027,0.157 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.051,0.139 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.102,0.036,0.168 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.292,0.642 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.061,-0.103,-0.024 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.015,-0.037,0.004 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.014,-0.095,0.045 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.008,-0.091,0.055 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.088,0.051 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.063,0.064 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.004,0.04 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.058,0.079 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.033,0.061 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.013,0.075 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,0.0,0.072 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.07,0.073 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.027,0.051 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.007,0.087 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.255,0.614 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.05,-0.002 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.063 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.031,0.072 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.028,0.061 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.038,-0.007,0.082 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.032,0.011,0.064 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.022,0.07 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.016,0.082 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.003,0.102 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.017,0.08 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.062,0.021,0.103 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.044,-0.005,0.093 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.019,0.129 +t0-beta,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.039,0.112 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.266,0.632 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.097,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.004,0.035 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.067,0.014 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.093,0.07 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.093,0.086 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.085,0.082 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.093,0.07 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.057,0.091 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.004,0.035 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.085,0.082 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.008,0.069 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.062,0.112 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.03,0.091 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.011,0.102 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.075,0.106 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.031,0.069 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.015,0.106 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.613 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.091,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.047,0.086 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.075,0.085 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.007,0.019 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.009,0.023 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.026,0.058 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.024,0.098 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.014,0.056 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.015,0.073 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.02,0.104 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,-0.027,0.14 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,0.001,0.049 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.05,-0.017,0.132 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.061,-0.014,0.146 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.223,0.641 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.103,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.008,-0.058,0.083 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.078,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.094,0.085 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.019,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.015,0.016 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.019,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.039,0.064 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.008,-0.058,0.083 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.015,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.036,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,-0.019,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.024,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.039,-0.027,0.1 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.045,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.007,0.049 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.045,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.029,0.128 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.056,-0.027,0.14 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.22,0.642 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.099,-0.007 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.054,0.081 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.089,0.079 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.023,0.009 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.016,0.015 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.036,0.056 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.032,0.086 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.005,0.036 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.015,0.065 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.017,0.088 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.036,0.137 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.019,0.005,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.022,0.126 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.055,-0.024,0.143 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.224,0.639 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.091,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.065,0.027 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.075,0.085 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.007,0.019 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.026,0.058 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.047,0.086 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.009,0.023 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.024,0.098 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.014,0.056 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.015,0.073 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.02,0.104 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,0.001,0.049 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,-0.027,0.14 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.05,-0.017,0.132 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.223,0.641 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.067,-0.141,-0.008 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.069,0.059 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.089,0.007 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.1,0.054 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.062,0.025 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.068,0.038 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.059,0.035 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.062,0.025 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.069,0.059 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.059,0.035 FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.033,0.064 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.042,0.05 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.024,0.042 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.051,0.076 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.032,0.114 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.039,0.051 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.032,0.114 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.036,0.104 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.006,0.114 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.212,0.633 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.061,-0.103,-0.024 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.033,-0.068,-0.011 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.015,-0.037,0.004 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.008,-0.091,0.055 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.014,-0.095,0.045 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.063,0.064 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.088,0.051 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.004,0.04 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.058,0.079 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.033,0.061 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.013,0.075 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.07,0.073 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,0.0,0.072 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.027,0.051 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.255,0.614 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.099,-0.007 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.075,0.021 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.089,0.079 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.016,0.015 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.023,0.009 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.036,0.056 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.054,0.081 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.032,0.086 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.005,0.036 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.015,0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.017,0.088 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.019,0.005,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.036,0.137 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.022,0.126 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.224,0.639 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.132,-0.031 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.09,-0.016 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.074,0.008 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.109,0.024 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.104,0.035 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.095,0.031 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.109,0.024 TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.069,0.032 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.095,0.031 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.073,0.05 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.044,0.032 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.031,0.063 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.085,0.045 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055 TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.006,0.043 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.002,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.224,0.614 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.129,-0.019 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.086,0.055 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.113,0.003 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.126,0.058 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.059,0.014 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.046,0.018 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.037,0.005 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.059,0.014 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.053,0.04 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.086,0.055 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.037,0.005 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.068 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.026,0.04 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.019,-0.023,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.071,0.118 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.022,0.024 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.071,0.118 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.051,0.102 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.046,0.125 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.212,0.633 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.081,-0.124,-0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.065,0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.087,-0.018 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.1,0.029 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.079,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.083,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.069,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.079,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.013,-0.043,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.065,0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.069,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.034,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.042,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.047,0.027 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.074 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.029,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.216,0.62 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.136,-0.043 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.081,0.013 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.066,-0.115,-0.021 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.113,0.011 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.116,0.019 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.04,-0.111,0.026 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.097,0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.116,0.019 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.083,0.049 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.081,0.013 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.097,0.016 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.067,0.03 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.069,0.022 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.012,-0.038,0.026 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.075,0.08 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.072,0.032 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.075,0.08 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.047,0.06 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.065,0.087 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.235,0.609 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.187,-0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.078,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.163,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.159,0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.158,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.129,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.134,0.066 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.087,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.024,-0.149,0.059 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.027,0.029 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,0.0,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.074,-0.126,-0.02 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.078,0.066 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.102,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.118,0.07 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.052,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.051,0.007 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.035,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.052,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.054,0.037 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.078,0.066 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.02,-0.035,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.024,0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.028,0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.033,0.067 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.024,-0.063,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.024,-0.063,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.024,-0.045,0.113 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.036,-0.042,0.136 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.207,0.632 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.187,-0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.148,-0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.159,0.043 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.163,0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.129,0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.037,-0.078,-0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.158,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.134,0.066 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.087,0.07 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.024,-0.149,0.059 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.027,0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.161,-0.053 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.054,-0.027 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.072,-0.126,-0.04 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.074,-0.032 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.052,-0.152,0.017 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.147,0.028 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.145,0.022 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.052,-0.152,0.017 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.117,0.035 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.054,-0.027 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.145,0.022 citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.045,0.006 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.114,0.049 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.08,0.03 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.045 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.029,0.026 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.025,-0.128,0.043 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.029,0.026 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.012,-0.02,0.046 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.232,0.6 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.114,-0.202,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.095,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.119,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.065,-0.171,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.059,-0.163,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.058,-0.167,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.129,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.143,0.044 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.112,0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.095,0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.026,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.037,-0.158,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.012,-0.048,0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.216,0.604 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.974,-1.797,-0.413 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.861,-1.593,-0.343 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.923,-1.718,-0.362 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.384 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.887,-1.789,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.877,-1.79,-0.282 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.874,-1.771,-0.289 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.887,-1.789,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.727,-0.27 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.861,-1.593,-0.343 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.874,-1.771,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.591,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.84,-1.726,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.634,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.804,-1.559,-0.308 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.838,-1.718,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.499,-0.302 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.526,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv index 5844a12f573e7dfbee42345b484498af5f643d3a..3c836ce3e236656b71a2ac24b929f7dc2623445d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,0.006,0.06 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.051,-0.014,0.122 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.022,0.094 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,0.008,0.092 @@ -7,15 +8,33 @@ TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.007,0.128 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.063,0.014,0.108 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,0.021,0.098 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.092,0.024,0.17 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.015,0.125 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.062,0.032,0.09 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.024,0.133 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.015,0.125 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.05,0.133 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.049,0.129 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.035,0.176 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.1,0.047,0.161 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.035,0.176 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.416,0.826 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.064,-0.006 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.019,-0.057,0.089 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.001,0.057 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.045,0.076 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.011,0.094 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.032,-0.012,0.075 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.037,0.087 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.062,-0.003,0.133 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.038,-0.028,0.104 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.027,0.07 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,-0.021,0.111 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.031,0.099 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,0.013,0.086 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.069,0.021,0.129 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.023,0.139 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.661,0.41,0.818 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.054,-0.139,0.013 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.019,-0.098,0.054 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.076,0.083 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.0,-0.063,0.038 @@ -23,15 +42,16 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.108,0.124 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.034,0.055 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.055,0.068 FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.038,0.144 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.031,0.062 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.011,-0.05,0.054 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.033,0.088 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.031,0.062 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.046,0.122 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.027,0.151 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.051,-0.029,0.147 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.027,0.151 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.349,0.823 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.104,-0.023 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.026,-0.06,0.001 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.09,0.071 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.075,0.051 @@ -39,15 +59,16 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.033,0.049 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.058,0.055 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.05,0.055 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.006,0.084 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.076,0.083 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.048,0.052 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.031,0.078 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.076,0.083 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,0.002,0.079 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.018,0.069 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.093 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.077 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.093 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.4,0.807 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.054,-0.101,-0.009 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.019,-0.083,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.0,-0.04,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.053,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -55,15 +76,16 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.011,-0.085,0.109 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.025,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.006,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.044,-0.036,0.133 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.007,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.011,-0.007,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.001,0.074 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.007,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.048,-0.009,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.033,-0.017,0.072 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.035,0.144 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,-0.018,0.131 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.035,0.144 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.367,0.821 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.147,-0.007 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.104,0.01 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.142,0.098 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.051,0.032 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.011,-0.122,0.078 @@ -71,15 +93,16 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.112,0.084 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.08,0.082 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.124,0.114 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.0,-0.095,0.077 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.063,0.101 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.124,0.114 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.039,0.099 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.063,0.09 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.041,0.008,0.072 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.412,0.8 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.121,-0.015 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.033,-0.081,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.058,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.059,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.054,0.025 @@ -87,15 +110,16 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.091,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.052,0.054 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.031,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.042,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.032,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.007,-0.031,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.035,-0.01,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.015,0.052 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.039,-0.023,0.121 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.65,0.373,0.816 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.07,-0.109,-0.022 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.035,-0.095,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.015,-0.073,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.059,0.047 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.045,0.006 @@ -103,15 +127,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.089,0.074 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.002,-0.057,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.029,-0.04,0.097 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.052,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.022,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.017,-0.016,0.041 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.052,0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.023,0.108 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.018,-0.028,0.061 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.045,-0.041,0.124 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.025,0.096 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.045,-0.041,0.124 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.362,0.815 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.102,-0.205,-0.025 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.066,-0.153,0.003 TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.168,0.037 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.092,0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.046,-0.153,0.035 @@ -119,15 +144,33 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.03,-0.108,0.038 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.16,0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.126,0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.079,0.046 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.16,0.06 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.088,0.078 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.011,-0.096,0.039 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.013,0.027 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.143,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.039,-0.116,0.027 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.066,0.03 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.091,0.071 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.042,0.007 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.128,0.11 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.044,0.03 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.049,0.049 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.064,0.138 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.044,0.033 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.013,-0.027,0.076 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.029,-0.039,0.097 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.048,0.063 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.061,0.137 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.064,0.147 +Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.35,0.821 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.066,-0.099,-0.033 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.075,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.057,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.055,0.046 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.011,-0.027,0.007 @@ -135,15 +178,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.0,-0.083,0.087 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.002,-0.041,0.04 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.013,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.034,0.112 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.034,0.043 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.021,-0.019,0.06 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.034,0.043 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.037,-0.018,0.097 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.015,0.055 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,-0.035,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.019,0.107 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.049,-0.035,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.366,0.817 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.089,-0.154,-0.025 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.125,0.02 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.096,0.032 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.085,0.03 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.08,0.001 @@ -151,31 +195,16 @@ Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.022,-0.112,0.059 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.075,0.031 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.017,-0.043,0.016 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.049,0.073 +Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.013,-0.082,0.026 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.063,0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.013,-0.082,0.026 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.035,0.096 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.056,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.06,0.097 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.044,0.069 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.06,0.097 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.359,0.812 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.143,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.066,0.03 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.091,0.071 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.042,0.007 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.128,0.11 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.007,-0.044,0.03 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.049,0.049 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.025,-0.064,0.138 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.044,0.033 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.013,-0.027,0.076 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.029,-0.039,0.097 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.048,0.063 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.064,0.147 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.061,0.137 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.35,0.821 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.153,-0.053 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.11,-0.032 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.139,0.044 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.043,-0.086,-0.002 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.05,-0.13,0.009 @@ -183,15 +212,16 @@ TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.109,0.037 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.084,0.01 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.121,0.023 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.085,0.081 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.03,-0.108,0.038 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.107,0.017 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.106,0.034 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.03,-0.108,0.038 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.016,-0.077,0.042 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.013,-0.066,0.083 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.069,0.072 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.013,-0.066,0.083 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.371,0.805 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.149,-0.051 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.054,-0.094,-0.013 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.078,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.075,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.077,0.017 @@ -199,31 +229,16 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.099,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.054,0.015 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.018,-0.066,0.027 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.011,-0.041,0.087 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.067,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.022,-0.058,0.014 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.054,0.053 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.014,-0.067,0.046 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.015,-0.044,0.071 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.024,0.095 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.019,-0.025,0.083 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.024,0.095 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.356,0.81 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.213,-0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.063,-0.178,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.103,-0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.064,-0.168,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.047,-0.141,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.143,0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.107,0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.173,0.06 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.013,-0.09,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.029,-0.105,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.041,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.111,-0.192,-0.049 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.074,-0.148,-0.022 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.054,-0.172,0.028 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.047,-0.083,-0.016 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.054,-0.151,0.018 @@ -231,15 +246,33 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.042,-0.078,-0.008 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.04,-0.138,0.023 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.038,-0.106,0.025 citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.027,0.012 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.158,0.058 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.12,0.019 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.02,-0.075,0.042 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.034,-0.158,0.058 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.078,0.064 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.09,0.024 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.02,0.039 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.009,-0.02,0.039 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.373,0.798 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.213,-0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.161,-0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.063,-0.178,0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.103,-0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.064,-0.168,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.047,-0.141,0.039 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.173,0.06 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.052,-0.143,0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.107,0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.013,-0.09,0.062 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.029,-0.105,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.009,-0.041,0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.052,-4.758,-0.713 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.952,-4.484,-0.694 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.896,-4.661,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.877,-4.195,-0.667 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.897,-4.595,-0.579 @@ -247,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.865,-3.998,-0.7 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.859,-4.429,-0.596 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.852,-4.394,-0.566 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.84,-4.591,-0.538 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-4.459,-0.576 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.804,-4.31,-0.56 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.84,-4.591,-0.538 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-4.128,-0.589 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-4.252,-0.553 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.748,-3.952,-0.594 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 6626e814bccdbe32b9c687b9712edeee1d24e98e..f60adc89a6196153203f650b2bba540b23d0426b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.49999999999997,31.501656661779908,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,86.33333333333333,30.448676109227613,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,76.99999999999999,26.670825436519785,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.66666666666667,23.432210875851045,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.66666666666667,27.322868191033013,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,69.50000000000001,22.162040270601192,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.5,23.164381828232894,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,69.0,23.41682939670412,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,67.33333333333333,22.314968062878627,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,64.5,21.665602207453883,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.5,25.835353399807527,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,60.91666666666665,26.291414549069813,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,58.83333333333333,20.329247975232857,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,57.333333333333336,19.878967411486848,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.74999999999999,19.520837065786147,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.916666666666664,19.67587758208953,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,47.333333333333336,19.1295976521051,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,45.33333333333334,19.084439307791044,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.83333333333333,13.665854293094004,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,41.833333333333336,16.430178452927592,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,40.333333333333336,17.60920708012651,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,36.666666666666664,16.038005227805108,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -TFT,32.83333333333333,13.175210398386616,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.666666666666664,10.280766783137185,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,30.0,6.213953011349793,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.999999999999993,9.268311929671036,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.333333333333325,10.226042550887172,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,19.666666666666664,6.532646730847547,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.166666666666668,-6.914332491950659,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.416666666666668,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.333333333333332,-11.344894425429741,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.90322580645162,31.501656661779908,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.29032258064517,30.448676109227613,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.09677419354838,27.071782089145046,0.0,1.3590561440115894,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.96774193548387,26.670825436519785,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.38709677419355,23.432210875851045,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.0967741935484,27.322868191033013,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.54838709677419,22.162040270601192,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,68.54838709677419,23.164381828232894,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,68.2258064516129,23.41682939670412,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,66.12903225806451,22.314968062878627,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,63.54838709677419,21.665602207453883,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.483870967741936,25.835353399807527,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.241935483870954,26.291414549069813,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.58064516129032,20.329247975232857,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,56.29032258064516,19.878967411486848,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.403225806451616,19.520837065786147,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.62903225806451,19.67587758208953,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.29032258064517,19.1295976521051,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,44.354838709677416,19.084439307791044,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.74193548387097,13.665854293094004,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,40.64516129032258,16.430178452927592,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,39.19354838709677,17.60920708012651,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.483870967741936,16.038005227805108,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +TFT,31.935483870967733,13.175210398386616,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.838709677419356,10.280766783137185,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,29.354838709677423,9.268311929671036,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,29.03225806451613,6.213953011349793,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.70967741935484,10.226042550887172,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,19.03225806451613,6.532646730847547,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Naive,18.87096774193548,-6.914332491950659,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.016129032258064,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Drift,11.129032258064516,-11.344894425429741,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv index c90485831daa313888a6cfdb7121dfd4d010e1ab..90330b999f045f0f9824eb53ad4f643dd0f0a10a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,90.16666666666666,43.089402578568524,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,89.66666666666666,43.96240636415071,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,81.49999999999999,39.968306218668594,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.16666666666666,36.82355570111464,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.0,37.10811207552987,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -FlowState,72.33333333333331,36.91651544152842,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.0,40.57408550474503,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.33333333333334,34.958147253380446,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,67.5,35.075657832582216,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,67.16666666666666,38.625202944942984,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,66.66666666666666,34.56498518351769,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.25,38.92001120631144,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,64.0,34.68497929932541,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.83333333333335,33.9070736885615,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.08333333333332,34.1076058240865,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,57.08333333333333,33.39092759318447,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,49.66666666666667,30.948733152914755,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.50000000000001,32.08087705910183,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.333333333333336,25.327733981726908,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -TFT,37.83333333333333,24.46284341523206,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,31.166666666666664,23.978096920266523,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,30.999999999999993,25.749307386319252,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,28.916666666666675,17.866358236369507,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.33333333333333,19.31393349762639,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.333333333333332,-30.072080438930016,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,23.33333333333333,18.810374229704784,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.749999999999996,17.74409557595822,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,19.66666666666666,18.765037629801505,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.333333333333332,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.416666666666666,-24.7653188720226,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.666666666666667,-28.889461387600647,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,89.99999999999999,43.089402578568524,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.70967741935483,43.96240636415071,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,83.22580645161291,40.88607619026578,0.0,1.3590561440115894,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.16129032258064,39.968306218668594,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.74193548387098,36.82355570111464,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.29032258064515,37.10811207552987,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +FlowState,71.12903225806453,36.91651544152842,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.80645161290322,40.57408550474503,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.51612903225806,34.958147253380446,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,66.12903225806451,35.075657832582216,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.48387096774194,38.625202944942984,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,65.48387096774194,34.56498518351769,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.11290322580645,38.92001120631144,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,62.58064516129033,34.68497929932541,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.354838709677416,33.9070736885615,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,57.33870967741935,34.1076058240865,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.40322580645161,33.39092759318447,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Toto-1.0,48.225806451612904,30.948733152914755,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.064516129032256,32.08087705910183,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.06451612903226,25.327733981726908,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,36.774193548387096,24.46284341523206,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,30.16129032258064,23.978096920266523,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,30.000000000000004,25.749307386319252,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,27.983870967741936,17.866358236369507,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,27.419354838709676,19.31393349762639,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,23.548387096774196,-30.072080438930016,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,22.58064516129032,18.810374229704784,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.016129032258064,17.74409557595822,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,19.03225806451613,18.765037629801505,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.935483870967742,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.14516129032258,-24.7653188720226,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.5806451612903225,-28.889461387600647,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7439f40df8db779aa9cf70dfad64a260b3dedffa..f6e0bee30e16a30567abc79e27325de286923321 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,93.16666666666666,35.816914971613535,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,84.49999999999999,36.37961364988923,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,78.33333333333333,35.03350454694202,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,76.5,31.740748400621065,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.33333333333336,28.10958849169818,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,74.91666666666667,35.43689733973191,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.16666666666667,27.941312204131997,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.16666666666666,26.676882475661646,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.83333333333334,26.631433929913772,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,69.33333333333333,27.31582024068637,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,65.83333333333334,26.949602028666487,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,58.66666666666664,25.293100446884985,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,57.66666666666666,28.641838115165918,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,56.000000000000014,24.252442323864077,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,49.33333333333333,22.449939976619714,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,49.24999999999999,21.679296308228114,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -CatBoost,48.83333333333334,22.444864726974835,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,47.583333333333336,21.34999505620995,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,42.66666666666667,19.76025668063852,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,39.666666666666664,21.20431215616717,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.50000000000001,19.631922812750414,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.83333333333333,15.823911544994452,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -TFT,32.5,16.59662312309126,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,26.833333333333332,13.942686864644848,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,25.166666666666664,9.663627642868011,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.666666666666664,11.985677005338214,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,24.5,6.800703153372501,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,17.5,8.923499543559977,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.666666666666668,-5.797212837788179,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.916666666666664,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.166666666666667,-11.068953116330738,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,93.06451612903226,35.816914971613535,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,84.03225806451611,36.37961364988923,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,77.74193548387098,35.03350454694202,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,75.64516129032259,31.209064542527397,0.0,1.3590561440115894,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.48387096774192,31.740748400621065,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.35483870967742,28.10958849169818,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.27419354838709,35.43689733973191,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,73.06451612903226,27.941312204131997,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,71.29032258064517,26.676882475661646,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.80645161290322,26.631433929913772,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,68.06451612903226,27.31582024068637,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,64.99999999999999,26.949602028666487,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.419354838709666,25.293100446884985,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,56.451612903225815,28.641838115165918,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,54.83870967741935,24.252442323864077,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,48.38709677419355,22.449939976619714,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.983870967741936,21.679296308228114,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +CatBoost,47.58064516129033,22.444864726974835,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.37096774193548,21.34999505620995,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,41.774193548387096,19.76025668063852,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,38.54838709677419,21.20431215616717,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.22580645161291,19.631922812750414,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.93548387096774,15.823911544994452,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,31.774193548387096,16.59662312309126,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,26.129032258064523,13.942686864644848,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.67741935483871,9.663627642868011,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.032258064516128,11.985677005338214,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,23.870967741935488,6.800703153372501,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,17.096774193548388,8.923499543559977,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.32258064516129,-5.797212837788179,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.661290322580646,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.096774193548387,-11.068953116330738,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv index bae66a70aababe3857a1433f40e937f7a18073db..ece529227fbbc931076cbd74ef31272a97de9390 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,93.99999999999999,48.61278982487198,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,87.49999999999999,48.70640034385884,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,81.66666666666667,48.23296275172553,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.99999999999999,45.40544912522533,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.0,41.29715565976512,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,75.41666666666666,47.751193623423625,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.83333333333334,41.64654327392226,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.33333333333333,41.54428741602817,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,72.33333333333331,41.56173820974464,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,69.66666666666667,41.259624645979585,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,69.5,41.470209968122006,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 -citras-fm,63.83333333333334,39.71569372223447,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.499999999999986,39.557111139066,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,60.66666666666668,42.32667988131473,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.91666666666667,37.46657312331687,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,55.58333333333334,37.464866729843635,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.0,35.67867635279438,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,47.0,36.736141457888785,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.16666666666667,28.152681721748152,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,34.66666666666667,30.89417851183718,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -TFT,34.666666666666664,28.227242900863803,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,30.33333333333334,28.454473066200702,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,26.666666666666668,23.488538196591747,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.499999999999996,21.431184822537432,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.999999999999993,23.49354513163928,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,24.416666666666664,19.745157899183717,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,22.166666666666668,-32.00072845680435,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,20.083333333333332,21.22969362810797,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.0,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.250000000000001,-25.33036065111638,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.3333333333333335,-29.953276450679468,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,94.03225806451613,48.61278982487198,0.0,1.7101873250213524,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,86.77419354838709,48.70640034385884,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,80.96774193548387,48.23296275172553,0.0,219.87602214848658,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,80.3225806451613,45.73107546412132,0.0,1.3590561440115894,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.58064516129032,45.40544912522533,0.0,0.2775198381076842,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.83870967741937,41.29715565976512,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.43548387096774,47.751193623423625,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.54838709677418,41.64654327392226,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.0967741935484,41.54428741602817,0.0,6.016768976016863,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,70.96774193548387,41.56173820974464,0.0,2.3629687737388316,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,68.54838709677419,41.470209968122006,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,68.2258064516129,41.259624645979585,0.0,0.9185802093290546,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.41935483870969,39.71569372223447,0.0,0.28305416581942466,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.129032258064505,39.557111139066,0.0,0.18673719491897878,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.03225806451613,42.32667988131473,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.24193548387096,37.46657312331687,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.79032258064515,37.464866729843635,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,48.87096774193548,35.67867635279438,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,45.64516129032259,36.736141457888785,0.0,0.12505772432552248,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.16129032258064,28.152681721748152,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,33.87096774193548,28.227242900863803,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,33.5483870967742,30.89417851183718,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,29.516129032258064,28.454473066200702,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,25.806451612903224,23.488538196591747,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.838709677419356,21.431184822537432,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.193548387096776,23.49354513163928,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,23.629032258064516,19.745157899183717,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,21.612903225806452,-32.00072845680435,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,19.435483870967744,21.22969362810797,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.64516129032258,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.016129032258066,-25.33036065111638,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.2580645161290325,-29.953276450679468,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv index 9e382f1b87bcc55157bbf7b63b83db21a55d09e3..d10e44421863d22192b584151b9c6e2808877f22 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,9 +1,10 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.015,-0.008,0.041 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,0.029,0.093 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.105,0.047,0.172 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.066,0.027,0.11 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.057,-0.007,0.141 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.066,0.027,0.11 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.057,0.189 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.172 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.109,0.054,0.169 @@ -13,14 +14,14 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.07,0.185 Chronos-2,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.08,0.216 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.076,0.03,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.14,0.078,0.201 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.087,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.091,0.208 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.234,0.388 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.015,-0.043,0.008 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.046,0.01,0.078 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.037,0.152 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.052,0.021,0.08 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,-0.024,0.119 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.052,0.021,0.08 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.051,0.168 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.092,0.037,0.154 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.042,0.155 @@ -30,14 +31,31 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.112,0.059,0.172 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.071,0.196 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.062,0.011,0.107 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.068,0.184 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.082,0.189 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.134,0.083,0.189 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.304,0.226,0.375 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.103,-0.03 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.049,-0.084,-0.011 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,-0.005,0.107 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.003,-0.067,0.063 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.005,-0.035,0.049 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.063,0.004,0.128 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.048,-0.01,0.113 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.051,-0.001,0.109 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,0.012,0.116 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.011,-0.061,0.085 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.069,0.018,0.123 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.09,0.034,0.149 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.017,-0.032,0.057 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,0.031,0.139 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.044,0.147 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.271,0.192,0.338 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.118,-0.208,-0.049 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.179,-0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.12,0.005 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.044,-0.121,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.054,-0.18,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.044,-0.121,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.005,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.0,-0.018,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.003,-0.022,0.026 @@ -47,31 +65,14 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,0.001,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.044,0.017,0.077 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.032,-0.144,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.039,0.009,0.065 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.049,0.019,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.047,0.027,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.306 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.124,-0.027 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.054,-0.087,-0.021 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.042,-0.015,0.108 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.076,0.056 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,0.001,0.117 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.042,-0.018,0.109 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.046,-0.009,0.111 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.056,0.004,0.118 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.005,-0.075,0.08 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.064,0.012,0.127 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,0.032,0.145 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,-0.049,0.054 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.027,0.139 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,0.036,0.146 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.035,0.145 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.267,0.193,0.335 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.061,-0.164,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.135,0.024 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.003,-0.067,0.063 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.051,-0.053,0.152 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.06,0.071 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.06,0.071 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.066,-0.033,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.051,-0.058,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.06,0.155 @@ -81,14 +82,31 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.072,-0.03,0.168 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.093,0.013,0.18 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.02,-0.05,0.072 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.088,-0.017,0.18 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,-0.005,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.095,-0.004,0.184 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.273,0.168,0.364 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.124,-0.027 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.054,-0.087,-0.021 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.005,-0.052,0.033 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.042,-0.015,0.108 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.076,0.056 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,0.001,0.117 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.042,-0.018,0.109 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.046,-0.009,0.111 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.056,0.004,0.118 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.005,-0.075,0.08 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.064,0.012,0.127 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,0.032,0.145 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,-0.049,0.054 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.027,0.139 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.035,0.145 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.267,0.193,0.335 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.233,-0.061 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.119,-0.203,-0.053 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.067,-0.147,-0.004 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.017,-0.039,0.005 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.133,-0.001 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.071,-0.194,0.032 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.133,-0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.042,0.004 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.013,-0.054,0.019 @@ -98,14 +116,14 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.006,-0.029,0.034 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.028,0.007,0.053 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.851,-0.05,-0.163,0.037 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.023,-0.014,0.055 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.001,0.066 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.031,0.001,0.057 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.292 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.208,-0.048 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.101,-0.182,-0.039 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.05,-0.127,0.01 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.0,-0.017,0.017 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.044,-0.122,0.018 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.054,-0.184,0.055 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.044,-0.122,0.018 FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.016,-0.004,0.04 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.003,-0.021,0.027 @@ -115,14 +133,14 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.001,0.045 FlowState,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.012,0.083 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.033,-0.148,0.052 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.012,0.065 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.048,0.014,0.088 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.047,0.023,0.074 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.159,0.303 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.122,-0.203,-0.057 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.105,-0.184,-0.044 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.054,-0.123,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.003,-0.027,0.021 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.048,-0.125,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.183,0.057 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.048,-0.125,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.019,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.003,-0.028,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -132,14 +150,14 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.019,0.004,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,0.004,0.09 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.851,-0.036,-0.147,0.044 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,0.011,0.057 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.045,0.016,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.043,0.017,0.074 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.156,0.302 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.218,-0.064 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.198,-0.053 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.131,-0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.015,-0.038,0.011 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.059,-0.134,-0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.069,-0.192,0.041 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.059,-0.134,-0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.002,-0.03,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.014,-0.038,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.011,-0.027,0.002 @@ -149,14 +167,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.008,-0.004,0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.03,-0.003,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.047,-0.153,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.025,0.01,0.039 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,0.004,0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.033,0.006,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.223,0.152,0.29 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.076,-0.181,0.002 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.06,-0.161,0.017 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.011,-0.092,0.058 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.076,0.145 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.005,-0.087,0.07 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.054,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.005,-0.087,0.07 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.053,-0.048,0.159 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.038,-0.08,0.149 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.083,0.15 @@ -166,14 +184,14 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.059,-0.054,0.165 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.08,-0.01,0.176 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.075,0.07 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.075,-0.037,0.176 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.084,-0.03,0.188 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.082,-0.028,0.185 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.263,0.147,0.361 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.227,-0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.126,-0.208,-0.062 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.074,-0.141,-0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.043,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.068,-0.145,-0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.078,-0.201,0.029 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.068,-0.145,-0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.006,-0.035,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.023,-0.047,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.02,-0.036,-0.004 @@ -183,14 +201,14 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.35,0.85,0.022,-0.009,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.056,-0.163,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.017,-0.001,0.032 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.005,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.025,-0.002,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.217,0.138,0.288 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.17,-0.275,-0.087 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.244,-0.076 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.099,-0.176,-0.035 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.046,-0.083,-0.018 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.093,-0.169,-0.033 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.102,-0.22,-0.013 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.093,-0.169,-0.033 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.029,-0.056,-0.008 citras-fm,FlowState,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.046,-0.091,-0.012 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.099,-0.004 @@ -200,14 +218,14 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.15,0.65,-0.023,-0.068,0.009 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.08,-0.189,0.007 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.006,-0.051,0.029 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.004,-0.043,0.039 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.044,0.034 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.113,0.274 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.137,-0.031 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.066,-0.119,-0.011 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.017,-0.061,0.031 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.031,-0.053,0.126 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.058,0.047 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.02,-0.077,0.048 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.058,0.047 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.3,0.149,0.5,0.047,-0.038,0.14 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.032,-0.054,0.129 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.149,0.5,0.035,-0.046,0.128 @@ -217,14 +235,14 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.053,-0.029,0.14 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.074,-0.007,0.159 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.069,-0.008,0.151 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,0.004,0.166 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.077,0.001,0.162 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.339 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.163,-0.251,-0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.226,-0.073 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.092,-0.162,-0.032 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.041,-0.07,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.086,-0.162,-0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.096,-0.219,0.016 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.086,-0.162,-0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.024,-0.058,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.069,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.061,-0.011 @@ -234,31 +252,14 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.017,-0.034,0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.006,-0.029,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.074,-0.178,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.01,-0.027,0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.008,-0.021,0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.203,0.13,0.27 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.269,-0.095 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.157,-0.233,-0.089 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.051,-0.089,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.098,-0.171,-0.037 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.107,-0.234,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.071,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.051,-0.096,-0.015 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.047,-0.082,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.07,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.092,-0.232,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.027,-0.061,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.004,-0.04,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.199,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.01,-0.047,0.026 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,-0.002,-0.025,0.018 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.195,0.11,0.267 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.262,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.155,-0.233,-0.09 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.172,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.049,-0.074,-0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.17,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.105,-0.226,0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.17,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.032,-0.061,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.049,-0.08,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.045,-0.08,-0.017 @@ -268,14 +269,14 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.057,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.035,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.083,-0.193,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.008,-0.045,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,0.002,-0.018,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.197,0.112,0.272 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.46,-0.635,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.438,-0.601,-0.292 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.371,-0.512,-0.237 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.442,-0.185 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.364,-0.505,-0.239 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.376,-0.571,-0.202 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.364,-0.505,-0.239 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.285,-0.413,-0.17 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.434,-0.189 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.432,-0.184 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.277,-0.405,-0.161 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.378,-0.127 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.513,-0.207 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.255,-0.37,-0.149 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.243,-0.365,-0.123 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.245,-0.374,-0.126 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv index 66c61188bce80f3e2caae332030013d9e9be51d6..e85cadac6324fb7da79b69100c32a306016836c2 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,14 +1,15 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.016,-0.046,0.009 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.002,0.069 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.052,0.018,0.082 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.095,0.043,0.152 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.099,0.047,0.155 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.072,0.182 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,-0.018,0.107 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.098,0.046,0.153 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.075,0.176 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.012,0.148 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.075,0.176 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.071,0.192 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.073,0.017,0.119 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.079,0.18 @@ -17,30 +18,49 @@ TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.088,0.187 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.346,0.505 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.015,-0.01,0.044 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.052,0.021,0.084 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.067,0.02,0.117 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.174 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.05,0.183 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.138,0.081,0.198 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.057,-0.006,0.13 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.049,0.179 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.081,0.196 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.083,0.003,0.165 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.081,0.196 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.144,0.074,0.217 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,0.039,0.134 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.083,0.204 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.152,0.084,0.216 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.091,0.211 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.516 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.039,-0.074,-0.002 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.055,-0.092,-0.021 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.027,0.064 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.06,0.006,0.122 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.064,0.007,0.131 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.091,0.031,0.153 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.005,-0.052,0.07 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.063,0.006,0.127 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.042,0.109 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.089,0.039,0.147 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.097,0.038,0.164 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,-0.011,0.079 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.095,0.041,0.152 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.052,0.162 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.103,0.055,0.159 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.322,0.483 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.055,-0.09,-0.018 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.071,-0.133,-0.02 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.068,0.026 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.045,-0.011,0.105 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.05,-0.003,0.108 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.249,0.65,0.077,0.015,0.142 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.01,-0.081,0.048 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.048,-0.009,0.11 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.024,0.134 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,-0.066,0.1 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.024,0.134 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.083,0.031,0.138 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,-0.039,0.064 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.081,0.028,0.138 @@ -49,14 +69,15 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,0.042,0.141 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.317,0.474 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.105,-0.179,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.211,-0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.064,-0.139,-0.006 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.048,-0.118,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.012,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.033,-0.003,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.058,-0.175,0.037 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.018,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.031,0.005,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.03,-0.163,0.077 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.031,0.005,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.039,0.01,0.073 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.025,-0.132,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.037,0.012,0.061 @@ -65,14 +86,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.046,0.027,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.452 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.11,-0.183,-0.049 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.224,-0.052 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.15,-0.007 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.121,0.003 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.02,0.012 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.008,0.069 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.063,-0.181,0.035 TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.019,0.016 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.002,0.057 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.034,-0.17,0.078 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.002,0.057 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,0.011,0.064 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.851,-0.029,-0.148,0.052 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.033,0.009,0.056 @@ -81,14 +103,15 @@ TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.066 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.285,0.444 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.143,-0.222,-0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.161,-0.246,-0.089 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.1,-0.18,-0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.751,-0.083,-0.166,-0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.034,-0.077,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.074,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.095,-0.221,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.031,-0.074,0.004 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.002,-0.025,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.209,0.061 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.002,-0.025,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.049,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.06,-0.167,0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.004,-0.029,0.032 @@ -97,14 +120,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.034,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.254,0.429 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.044,-0.12,0.017 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.06,-0.149,0.006 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.005,-0.075,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.01,-0.051,0.075 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.055,-0.038,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.059,-0.036,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.086,-0.018,0.181 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.045,0.155 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.085,-0.01,0.173 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.015,0.086 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.085,-0.01,0.173 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.092,0.015,0.176 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.027,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.09,0.0,0.178 @@ -113,62 +137,66 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.098,0.009,0.183 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.293,0.499 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.108,-0.181,-0.048 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.218,-0.052 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.067,-0.146,-0.006 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.051,-0.123,0.009 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.025,0.017 FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.016,0.019 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.03,-0.004,0.069 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.062,-0.184,0.043 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,0.002,0.056 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.168,0.078 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,0.002,0.056 FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.036,0.003,0.075 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.028,-0.137,0.055 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.034,0.01,0.058 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.046,0.019,0.072 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.043,0.013,0.076 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.285,0.445 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.141,-0.213,-0.081 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.159,-0.243,-0.089 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.082,-0.155,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.032,-0.062,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.061,0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.002,-0.016,0.025 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.093,-0.209,0.01 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.029,-0.059,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.063,-0.198,0.053 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.008,-0.034,0.055 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.058,-0.161,0.022 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.012,0.023 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.018,-0.016,0.042 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.015,-0.019,0.046 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.261,0.426 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.174,0.012 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.09,-0.198,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.122,0.04 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.017,-0.112,0.061 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.029,-0.083,0.14 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.033,-0.085,0.145 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.065,0.173 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.094,0.015 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.084,0.143 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.059,-0.056,0.166 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.059,-0.056,0.166 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.067,-0.041,0.166 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.005,-0.081,0.079 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.049,0.172 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.076,-0.04,0.18 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.041,0.178 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.389,0.273,0.49 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.141,-0.213,-0.081 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.159,-0.243,-0.089 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.098,-0.172,-0.041 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.082,-0.155,-0.025 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.032,-0.062,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.061,0.002 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.002,-0.016,0.025 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.093,-0.209,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.029,-0.059,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.063,-0.198,0.053 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.008,-0.034,0.055 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.058,-0.161,0.022 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.012,0.023 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.018,-0.016,0.042 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.015,-0.019,0.046 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.261,0.426 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.15,-0.237,-0.076 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.168,-0.278,-0.08 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.107,-0.196,-0.039 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.09,-0.16,-0.032 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.04,-0.078,-0.01 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.068,-0.011 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.006,-0.064,0.047 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.101,-0.214,-0.015 citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.037,-0.081,-0.003 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.008,-0.058,0.033 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.071,-0.198,0.039 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.008,-0.058,0.033 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.066,-0.176,0.019 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.002,-0.042,0.033 @@ -177,14 +205,15 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.042,0.04 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.253,0.427 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.078,-0.135,-0.018 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.095,-0.154,-0.04 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.038,-0.086,0.01 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.022,-0.069,0.037 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.024,-0.061,0.116 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.3,0.149,0.5,0.029,-0.055,0.129 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.056,-0.026,0.143 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.086,0.026 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.027,-0.058,0.121 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.055,-0.022,0.139 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.005,-0.086,0.075 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.055,-0.022,0.139 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.062,-0.019,0.15 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.06,-0.018,0.143 @@ -193,14 +222,15 @@ TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.069,-0.006,0.156 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.286,0.472 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.22,-0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.257,-0.091 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.105,-0.179,-0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.088,-0.16,-0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.039,-0.065,-0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.034,-0.059,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.004,-0.033,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.099,-0.216,-0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.035,-0.061,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.023,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.069,-0.208,0.047 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.023,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.002,-0.034,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.064,-0.167,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -209,14 +239,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.009,-0.025,0.04 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.258,0.424 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.161,-0.235,-0.089 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.179,-0.276,-0.092 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.193,-0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.173,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.051,-0.08,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.046,-0.068,-0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.016,-0.052,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.226,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.048,-0.078,-0.019 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.018,-0.044,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.082,-0.22,0.038 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.018,-0.044,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.039,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.077,-0.178,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.012,-0.03,0.011 @@ -225,14 +256,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.031,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.253,0.415 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.23,-0.096 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.176,-0.268,-0.1 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.115,-0.188,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.098,-0.164,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.048,-0.072,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.056,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.224,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.045,-0.082,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.015,-0.048,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.216,0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.015,-0.048,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.007,-0.042,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.074,-0.185,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.042,0.024 @@ -241,14 +273,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.341,0.248,0.419 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.018,-0.528 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.067,-0.536 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-0.933,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-0.899,-0.465 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.825,-0.393 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.797,-0.399 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.537,-0.752,-0.34 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.683,-0.994,-0.414 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.803,-0.398 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.743,-0.353 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.637,-0.962,-0.375 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.54,-0.743,-0.353 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.744,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.895,-0.4 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.531,-0.736,-0.349 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv index c0892d832fa18f141ac8fd3ec0ecc2038f6f92f6..6aab3e3a84d603c0777ad7f09263f19216cb6eab 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -3,288 +3,288 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.65,0.449,0.85,-0.009,-0.04,0.018 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.012,-0.042,0.066 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.057,0.064 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.067,0.025,0.112 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.05,0.171 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.06,0.027,0.09 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.109,0.053,0.173 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.063,0.191 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.125,0.068,0.184 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.061,0.182 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.121,0.061,0.187 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.086,0.199 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.061,0.182 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.1,0.212 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.086,0.199 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.101,0.044,0.15 -TimesFM-3,LightGBM,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.172,0.086,0.248 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.121,0.245 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.292,0.427 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.551,0.009,-0.018,0.038 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.249,0.65,0.021,-0.031,0.075 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.038,0.07 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.034,0.119 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.115,0.051,0.18 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.068,0.019,0.117 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.117,0.054,0.183 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.133,0.063,0.207 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.067,0.202 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.061,0.193 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.061,0.201 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.083,0.212 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.061,0.193 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.16,0.095,0.227 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.083,0.212 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.108,0.053,0.165 -Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.18,0.095,0.254 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.266 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.288,0.436 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.012,-0.071,0.04 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.751,-0.021,-0.081,0.03 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.038,0.03 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,-0.012,0.125 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.096,-0.008,0.194 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.048,0.005,0.097 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.098,-0.004,0.193 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.115,0.016,0.214 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.114,0.015,0.214 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.106,0.006,0.202 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.111,0.009,0.207 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.13,0.04,0.219 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.106,0.006,0.202 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.062,0.226 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.13,0.04,0.219 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.09,0.039,0.138 -TabPFN-TS-3,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.162,0.059,0.253 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.174,0.079,0.263 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.268,0.428 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.068,0.054 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.075,0.037 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.031,0.036 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.061,-0.011,0.133 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.102,-0.005,0.198 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.054,-0.004,0.117 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.104,0.001,0.197 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.12,0.01,0.221 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.119,0.014,0.216 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.112,0.009,0.206 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.116,0.007,0.216 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.038,0.226 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.112,0.009,0.206 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.148,0.054,0.236 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.038,0.226 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.095,0.03,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.167,0.064,0.266 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.275 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.354,0.262,0.436 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.072,-0.126,-0.026 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.135,-0.035 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.143,0.012 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.065,-0.154,0.011 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.043,-0.024,0.11 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.008,-0.088,0.054 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.045,-0.025,0.111 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,0.004,0.125 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.062,0.003,0.129 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.058,-0.01,0.127 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.054,-0.017,0.12 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.092,0.033,0.154 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.006,0.146 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.036,-0.024,0.088 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.073,0.181 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.312,0.232,0.388 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.12,-0.207,-0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.13,-0.22,-0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.107,-0.24,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.113,-0.247,0.005 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.045,-0.123,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.053,-0.15,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.002,-0.006,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.02,-0.018,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.012,0.056 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,0.001,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.021,0.054 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.038,0.015,0.061 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.011,0.001,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.051,0.017,0.091 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.038,0.015,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.007,-0.128,0.082 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,-0.02,0.16 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.145 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.206,0.358 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.064,-0.099,-0.028 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.073,-0.132,-0.019 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.051,-0.108,-0.005 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.057,-0.132,0.004 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.008,-0.057,0.081 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.021,0.13 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.053,-0.015,0.127 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,-0.01,0.15 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.069,-0.005,0.142 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.061,-0.006,0.136 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.066,-0.013,0.147 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.086,0.028,0.15 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.061,-0.006,0.136 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.039,0.165 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.086,0.028,0.15 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.043,-0.023,0.103 -TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.013,0.217 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.055,0.211 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.254,0.382 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.209,-0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.133,-0.224,-0.057 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.109,-0.239,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.116,-0.246,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.048,-0.125,0.025 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.002,-0.01,0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.056,-0.145,0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.018,-0.023,0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.017,-0.017,0.058 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.009,0.002,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.014,-0.025,0.055 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.035,0.017,0.054 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.009,0.002,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.016,0.089 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.035,0.017,0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.01,-0.128,0.082 -Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.071,-0.022,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.084,0.035,0.148 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.206,0.352 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.237,-0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.261,-0.068 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.129,-0.272,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.284,-0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.142,-0.004 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.021,-0.073,0.018 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.075,-0.177,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.018,-0.074,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.009,-0.064,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.004,-0.034,0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,-0.039,0.057 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.009,-0.064,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.031,0.0,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,-0.039,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.028,-0.149,0.066 -TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.054,-0.045,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.186,0.344 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.142,-0.226,-0.073 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.253,-0.072 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.129,-0.272,-0.015 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.275,-0.015 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.066,-0.148,-0.003 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.02,-0.06,0.012 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.074,-0.165,0.005 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.018,-0.061,0.017 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.05,0.022 TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.026,0.018 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.019,-0.025,0.05 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.05,0.022 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,0.005,0.058 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.019,-0.025,0.05 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.028,-0.156,0.06 -TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.055,-0.048,0.136 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.037,0.103 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.19,0.34 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.132,-0.222,-0.065 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.239,-0.065 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.119,-0.252,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.126,-0.26,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.02,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.065,-0.157,0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.009,-0.016,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.009,-0.029,0.061 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.023,0.047 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.033,0.046 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,0.01,0.044 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,0.011,0.079 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.019,-0.139,0.071 -Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.063,-0.035,0.153 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.029,0.14 -Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.348 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.138,-0.23,-0.065 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.251,-0.065 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.124,-0.261,-0.009 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.131,-0.276,-0.007 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.062,-0.146,0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.016,-0.058,0.021 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.07,-0.172,0.013 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.059,0.024 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.004,-0.022,0.033 FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.018,0.025 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.048,0.032 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.022,0.06 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.048,0.032 FlowState,citras-fm,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.036,0.005,0.069 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.022,0.06 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.024,-0.147,0.067 -FlowState,LightGBM,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.058,-0.045,0.148 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.071,0.033,0.114 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.196,0.347 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.248,-0.094 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.27,-0.09 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.15,-0.28,-0.041 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.157,-0.292,-0.04 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.039,-0.065,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.177,-0.029 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.037,-0.058,-0.017 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.061,0.037 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.019,-0.053,0.024 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.028,-0.047,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.064,0.022 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.014,-0.017,0.051 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.047,-0.161,0.042 -Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,-0.07,0.134 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.05,0.003,0.12 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.184,0.323 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.132,-0.222,-0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.239,-0.065 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.119,-0.252,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.126,-0.26,-0.009 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.057,-0.136,0.017 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.011,-0.02,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.065,-0.157,0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.009,-0.016,-0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.009,-0.029,0.061 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.023,0.047 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.033,0.046 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,0.011,0.079 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,0.01,0.044 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.019,-0.139,0.071 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.029,0.14 +Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.348 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.269,-0.111 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.191,-0.294,-0.106 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.292,-0.066 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.173,-0.308,-0.058 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.101,-0.181,-0.034 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.054,-0.1,-0.017 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.11,-0.198,-0.04 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.098,-0.016 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.032,-0.064,-0.0 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.061,-0.005 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.042,-0.085,-0.011 citras-fm,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.037,-0.074,-0.005 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.014,-0.054,0.017 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.042,-0.085,-0.011 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.014,-0.054,0.017 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.062,-0.178,0.023 -citras-fm,LightGBM,0.55,0.3,0.8,0.023,-0.085,0.113 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,-0.0,0.085 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.243,0.168,0.318 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.248,-0.094 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.27,-0.09 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.15,-0.28,-0.041 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.157,-0.292,-0.04 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.171,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.039,-0.065,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.177,-0.029 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.037,-0.058,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.061,0.037 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.019,-0.053,0.024 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.064,0.022 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.028,-0.047,-0.01 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.014,-0.017,0.051 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.047,-0.161,0.042 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.05,0.003,0.12 +Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.184,0.323 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.177,-0.046 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.198,-0.056 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.098,-0.161,-0.041 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.105,-0.194,-0.031 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.037,-0.097,0.023 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.007,-0.09,0.114 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.045,-0.115,0.023 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.01,-0.09,0.113 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.027,-0.07,0.13 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.027,-0.064,0.135 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.018,-0.076,0.122 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.023,-0.072,0.128 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.045,-0.044,0.139 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.018,-0.076,0.122 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.058,-0.023,0.151 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.045,-0.044,0.139 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,0.0,0.159 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.093,0.006,0.184 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.199,0.37 -LightGBM,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.208,-0.33,-0.094 -LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.219,-0.341,-0.105 -LightGBM,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.194,-0.339,-0.063 -LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.201,-0.363,-0.069 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.19,0.019 -LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.278,-0.013 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.076,-0.189,0.021 -LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.057,-0.161,0.043 -LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.058,-0.158,0.046 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.067,-0.181,0.033 -LightGBM,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.062,-0.173,0.043 -LightGBM,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.038,-0.155,0.065 -LightGBM,citras-fm,0.45,0.2,0.7,-0.024,-0.127,0.078 -LightGBM,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.19,-0.0 -LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.014,-0.065,0.099 -LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.224,0.132,0.306 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.325,-0.138 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.362,-0.135 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.211,-0.356,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.379,-0.08 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.222,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.094,-0.169,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.267,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.091,-0.174,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.163,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.077,-0.129,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.053,-0.136,-0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.163,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.038,-0.093,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.053,-0.136,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.102,-0.226,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.11,0.061 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.119,0.299 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.745,-0.412 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.772,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.748,-0.365 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.549,-0.772,-0.355 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.454,-0.633,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.557,-0.259 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.617,-0.341 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.544,-0.259 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.524,-0.228 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.514,-0.235 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.534,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.532,-0.243 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.477,-0.226 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.534,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.32,-0.466,-0.202 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.477,-0.226 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.586,-0.248 -Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.289,-0.44,-0.152 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.271,-0.426,-0.135 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv index 94bbbe20c9567aae9471f191aaeba2c72c16ad59..e5307d35fb39217a5c2eeff12d0fc6826f258c5d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,10 +2,11 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.002,-0.033,0.028 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.046,0.06 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.053,0.016,0.086 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.022,0.093 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.016,-0.055,0.086 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.125,0.071,0.178 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.064,0.177 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.125,0.071,0.178 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.065,0.181 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.068,0.176 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.063,0.181 @@ -13,16 +14,16 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.071,0.181 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.096,0.2 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.15,0.096,0.202 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.109,0.054,0.158 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.125,0.227 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.125,0.232 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.411,0.553 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.002,-0.029,0.032 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.049,0.07 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.055,0.023,0.084 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.06,0.001,0.119 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,-0.048,0.087 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.189 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.059,0.186 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.06,0.185 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.124,0.055,0.196 @@ -30,16 +31,16 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.063,0.193 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.082,0.218 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.151,0.084,0.217 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,0.055,0.166 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.245 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.243 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.404,0.561 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.064,0.044 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.075,0.047 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.013,0.107 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.052,0.009,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.034,0.059 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.118,0.025,0.212 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.113,0.019,0.203 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.118,0.025,0.212 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.114,0.017,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.114,0.022,0.202 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.019,0.209 @@ -47,16 +48,33 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.119,0.025,0.208 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.141,0.064,0.223 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.144,0.057,0.229 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.102,0.056,0.152 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.172,0.084,0.253 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.172,0.086,0.254 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.393,0.561 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.056,-0.094,-0.016 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.058,-0.092,-0.024 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.048,-0.12,0.012 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.063,0.067 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.039,-0.119,0.037 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.07,0.01,0.137 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.076,0.017,0.142 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.072,0.009,0.136 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,0.012,0.133 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.073,0.005,0.14 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.076,0.018,0.14 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.1,0.041,0.163 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.102,0.041,0.162 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.059,0.002,0.109 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.078,0.19 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.376,0.531 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.062,-0.102,-0.023 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.064,-0.135,-0.001 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.055,-0.116,-0.009 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.072,0.059 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.045,-0.132,0.027 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.07,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.064,-0.008,0.135 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.07,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.066,-0.007,0.143 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.066,-0.002,0.138 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.067,-0.007,0.143 @@ -64,16 +82,16 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.071,0.003,0.143 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.094,0.038,0.154 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,0.037,0.158 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.053,-0.016,0.11 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.064,0.191 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.06,0.196 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.376,0.521 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.017,-0.095,0.052 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.095,0.046 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.063,0.033 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.037,-0.038,0.106 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.043,-0.028,0.116 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.002,0.213 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.105,-0.006,0.205 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.002,0.213 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.106,-0.01,0.21 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.106,-0.007,0.204 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.107,-0.003,0.207 @@ -81,33 +99,16 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.111,-0.0,0.209 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.133,0.038,0.227 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.031,0.228 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.094,0.017,0.167 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.164,0.061,0.258 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.056,0.261 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.478,0.38,0.561 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.142,-0.216,-0.077 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.134,-0.269,-0.025 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.075,-0.16,0.002 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.124,-0.271,0.002 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.038,0.026 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.005,-0.034,0.024 -TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.026,0.02 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.025,0.023 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.026,0.002,0.051 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.029,0.006,0.05 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.018,-0.141,0.066 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.094 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.136,-0.215,-0.068 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.138,-0.233,-0.059 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.127,-0.254,-0.019 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.075,-0.158,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.069,-0.156,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.117,-0.259,0.006 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.002,-0.042,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.001,-0.041,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.025,0.029 @@ -115,16 +116,33 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.032,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.032,0.006,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,-0.002,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.012,-0.126,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.1 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.038,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.331,0.495 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.142,-0.216,-0.077 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.134,-0.269,-0.025 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.082,-0.166,-0.017 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.075,-0.16,0.002 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.124,-0.271,0.002 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.038,0.026 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.005,-0.034,0.024 +TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.026,0.02 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.025,0.023 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.026,0.002,0.051 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.029,0.006,0.05 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.018,-0.141,0.066 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.221,-0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.229,-0.063 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.129,-0.26,-0.018 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.077,-0.158,-0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.071,-0.166,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.119,-0.265,0.01 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.026,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.002,-0.04,0.04 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.026,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.0,-0.017,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.039,0.044 @@ -132,16 +150,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.005,-0.013,0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.012,0.074 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.005,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.014,-0.13,0.077 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.023,0.112 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.065,0.023,0.113 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.329,0.494 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.214,-0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.139,-0.227,-0.064 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.129,-0.254,-0.022 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.153,-0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.07,-0.161,0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.118,-0.257,0.007 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.005,-0.024,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.001,-0.037,0.039 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.005,-0.024,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.0,-0.012,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.035,0.04 @@ -149,16 +167,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.005,-0.005,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.003,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.011,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.013,-0.127,0.074 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.024,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.066,0.025,0.112 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.328,0.492 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.139,-0.221,-0.067 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.141,-0.243,-0.058 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.264,-0.02 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.079,-0.163,-0.005 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.072,-0.166,0.007 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.12,-0.261,0.003 -FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.02,0.026 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.03,0.024 +FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.02,0.026 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.046,0.037 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.042,0.034 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -166,16 +184,16 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.031,0.034 FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.751,0.029,-0.001,0.062 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.032,0.001,0.064 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.015,-0.132,0.073 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.064,0.02,0.112 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.064,0.026,0.107 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.33,0.495 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.221,-0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.24,-0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.135,-0.263,-0.025 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.082,-0.163,-0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.076,-0.167,-0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.124,-0.264,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.023,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.039,0.031 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.023,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.005,-0.02,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.005,-0.013,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.035,0.03 @@ -183,16 +201,16 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.026,-0.004,0.06 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.028,0.011,0.045 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.019,-0.136,0.069 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.061,0.025,0.102 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,0.024,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.328,0.489 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.25,-0.107 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.279,-0.089 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.165,-0.286,-0.068 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.111,-0.194,-0.043 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.104,-0.182,-0.039 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.154,-0.293,-0.039 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.027,-0.053,-0.003 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.033,-0.06,-0.006 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.027,-0.053,-0.003 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.079,0.012 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.032,-0.077,0.003 citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.249,0.7,-0.03,-0.066,0.001 @@ -200,16 +218,16 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.026,-0.064,0.004 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.003,-0.025,0.025 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.045,-0.165,0.037 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,0.005,0.07 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.036,0.004,0.075 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.314,0.476 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.254,-0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.178,-0.277,-0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.168,-0.297,-0.06 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.114,-0.193,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.107,-0.188,-0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.157,-0.296,-0.032 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.03,-0.053,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.07,0.002 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.03,-0.053,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.065,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.059,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.033,-0.068,-0.001 @@ -217,16 +235,16 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.029,-0.048,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.003,-0.026,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.048,-0.165,0.036 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.033,-0.001,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.033,-0.0,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.314,0.468 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.122,-0.188,-0.057 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.124,-0.199,-0.058 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.114,-0.179,-0.059 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.063,-0.122,-0.002 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.056,-0.123,0.015 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.104,-0.201,-0.017 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.018,-0.071,0.124 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.082,0.112 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.018,-0.071,0.124 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.013,-0.084,0.115 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.013,-0.08,0.113 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.015,-0.079,0.116 @@ -234,33 +252,16 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.074,0.12 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.043,-0.039,0.142 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.046,-0.037,0.142 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.001,0.163 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.078,-0.003,0.167 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.323,0.507 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.294,-0.142 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.219,-0.325,-0.128 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.208,-0.338,-0.092 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.236,-0.069 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.197,-0.347,-0.064 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.104,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.126,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.124,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.068,-0.127,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.065,-0.114,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.076,-0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.035,-0.079,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.195,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.0,-0.024,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.286,0.451 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.301,-0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.322,-0.129 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.208,-0.34,-0.095 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.234,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.243,-0.064 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.197,-0.353,-0.059 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.107,-0.039 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.07,-0.128,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.126,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.068,-0.12,-0.027 @@ -268,16 +269,16 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.065,-0.116,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.037,-0.081,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.035,-0.086,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.084,-0.201,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.0,-0.022,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.375,0.282,0.455 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.946,-1.238,-0.697 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.275,-0.677 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.278,-0.648 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.132,-0.603 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.832,-1.088,-0.601 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.914,-1.278,-0.612 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-0.982,-0.495 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-0.975,-0.489 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-0.969,-0.489 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.709,-0.982,-0.493 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.702,-0.958,-0.488 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.659,-0.907,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.654,-0.879,-0.459 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.734,-1.028,-0.477 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.599,-0.822,-0.4 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.599,-0.835,-0.393 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 65a36574eb100e66df8b102ae09793f79a7ca804..54d1507051b290731b1aed946eff42c6d2e25065 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.33333333333334,32.45827807635223,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.66666666666667,32.33462591493779,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.33333333333333,29.484621746234474,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.16666666666669,28.589935763752727,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,75.66666666666667,27.39375784946123,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,72.00000000000001,28.250201935398746,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,68.83333333333333,26.456553037061724,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,67.16666666666667,25.812997332141517,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,66.49999999999999,26.310922480013378,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.66666666666666,27.32711942416035,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,64.66666666666666,26.604845375718078,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,62.83333333333331,26.219011288531625,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.33333333333332,25.612362207783157,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -TS-ICL,57.166666666666664,27.78216800245813,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,55.833333333333336,23.206408545048664,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,54.41666666666668,27.071675026391638,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -Toto-1.0,53.833333333333336,25.150075353237867,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,53.166666666666664,24.019807404184125,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,46.833333333333336,22.564631891671016,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,45.16666666666667,20.962768609596882,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,42.33333333333334,21.104084940286395,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.5,19.610053947514793,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -TFT,31.83333333333333,16.24394791361502,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.166666666666664,17.60348552820039,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.16666666666666,14.046475775318722,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,25.5,14.206772560096903,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,20.999999999999996,8.426290992667196,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,17.83333333333333,8.013909721452405,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.916666666666664,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.333333333333332,-12.058300085396546,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.833333333333334,-13.725349207058368,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,84.19354838709678,31.254556511830025,0.0,0.925034852132863,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.70967741935483,32.45827807635223,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.48387096774194,32.33462591493779,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.7741935483871,29.484621746234474,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.35483870967742,27.39375784946123,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,74.35483870967741,28.589935763752727,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,71.29032258064517,28.250201935398746,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,67.58064516129033,26.456553037061724,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,65.80645161290322,25.812997332141517,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,64.99999999999999,26.310922480013378,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.03225806451613,27.32711942416035,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +citras-fm,63.064516129032256,26.604845375718078,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.29032258064516,26.219011288531625,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.80645161290323,25.612362207783157,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,55.483870967741936,27.78216800245813,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,54.35483870967741,23.206408545048664,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,53.145161290322584,27.071675026391638,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-1.0,52.58064516129032,25.150075353237867,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,51.7741935483871,24.019807404184125,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,45.806451612903224,22.564631891671016,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,44.354838709677416,20.962768609596882,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,41.45161290322581,21.104084940286395,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.32258064516129,19.610053947514793,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +TFT,30.80645161290323,16.24394791361502,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,29.354838709677423,17.60348552820039,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.322580645161292,14.046475775318722,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,24.67741935483871,14.206772560096903,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.32258064516129,8.426290992667196,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,17.258064516129032,8.013909721452405,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.564516129032258,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.032258064516128,-12.058300085396546,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,5.64516129032258,-13.725349207058368,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7c11ad3d2f216135c0e69244e8140c0b01f0b846..7dfea5d91e4b380cf3677bd63b8e96c36f4ec88a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,88.66666666666669,40.28519198031009,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.5,40.241553705242325,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,82.33333333333334,37.20661460897712,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,79.16666666666666,35.70932536691862,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.49999999999999,36.21512359135406,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,71.50000000000001,34.30608154282804,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,71.50000000000001,34.20036962571038,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,71.50000000000001,36.38409783372577,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,69.16666666666667,34.62641656604545,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.83333333333331,35.235748193480255,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,66.83333333333334,33.80526265868134,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,66.49999999999999,34.57369581909669,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,62.66666666666667,35.721804917964775,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,61.33333333333334,33.231151028003566,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,59.166666666666664,32.43440844148379,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.33333333333333,33.533977961386974,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.08333333333333,34.19450526988148,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.33333333333333,31.16311870045906,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.66666666666667,26.539906909008327,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TFT,36.416666666666664,22.27606386903942,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.166666666666664,24.79006525446703,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.999999999999996,21.22121308421785,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,27.833333333333343,20.120766929488475,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,23.999999999999996,14.9301643137155,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,23.749999999999993,14.294397638336442,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,23.33333333333333,13.191993375720667,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,22.499999999999996,13.347203632390958,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,22.0,15.776905337592694,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.58333333333333,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.833333333333333,-43.691472811269946,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.0000000000000004,-44.75542175816074,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,87.90322580645162,39.50058445296653,0.0,0.925034852132863,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,87.74193548387098,40.28519198031009,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.61290322580645,40.241553705242325,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.3225806451613,37.20661460897712,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.74193548387098,35.70932536691862,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.48387096774192,36.21512359135406,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.0,36.38409783372577,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.83870967741936,34.30608154282804,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,69.6774193548387,34.20036962571038,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.58064516129032,34.62641656604545,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.93548387096774,35.235748193480255,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,64.99999999999999,33.80526265868134,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,64.6774193548387,34.57369581909669,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.80645161290323,35.721804917964775,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,59.838709677419345,33.231151028003566,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.74193548387097,32.43440844148379,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.096774193548384,33.533977961386974,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,55.564516129032256,34.19450526988148,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.0,31.16311870045906,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.58064516129033,26.539906909008327,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TFT,35.24193548387097,22.27606386903942,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.064516129032256,24.79006525446703,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,28.064516129032263,21.22121308421785,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.93548387096774,20.120766929488475,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,23.225806451612907,14.9301643137155,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.983870967741936,14.294397638336442,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,22.58064516129032,13.191993375720667,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,21.7741935483871,13.347203632390958,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,21.290322580645164,15.776905337592694,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.14516129032258,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.64516129032258,-43.691472811269946,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.9032258064516134,-44.75542175816074,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 162029c556a20b1683360d33451b079c01f815ec..53653eccd3b6831d3c35a8b4f6d79406da06031c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,86.83333333333336,33.909977996816906,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.0,34.735886193284756,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.99999999999999,30.048380594127288,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.33333333333336,30.331123518560123,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.16666666666669,31.06965155182424,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.00000000000001,29.438621779192953,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,71.33333333333331,29.345011784688257,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.33333333333333,31.361118613889825,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,68.83333333333336,29.395351182223994,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.00000000000001,29.395646169542744,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,63.49999999999999,28.813613264891856,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,58.66666666666666,27.111852608105036,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.08333333333334,31.05700816902527,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,57.66666666666666,27.50602341437721,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,56.99999999999999,25.835963292065955,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -TS-ICL,55.833333333333336,29.58304480467261,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,53.333333333333336,24.782966501614755,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.83333333333334,27.089976643088885,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.66666666666668,25.824470924035413,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,48.166666666666664,22.597567437556975,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,39.83333333333334,21.484842601837784,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.666666666666664,20.770111290736605,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,29.333333333333332,18.81370670043465,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -TFT,28.33333333333333,15.894814429818338,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,26.666666666666668,17.77794697606161,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.999999999999996,14.370876624664398,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,20.83333333333333,7.249016480338232,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,20.0,9.543981657156008,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.83333333333333,-11.759514098130408,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.249999999999998,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.666666666666667,-13.85845893302955,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,86.12903225806453,34.26955466214785,0.0,0.925034852132863,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.64516129032259,33.909977996816906,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.64516129032258,34.735886193284756,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.54838709677418,30.048380594127288,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.74193548387096,30.331123518560123,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.41935483870968,31.06965155182424,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,71.61290322580645,29.438621779192953,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,69.6774193548387,29.345011784688257,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.03225806451614,31.361118613889825,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,67.25806451612904,29.395351182223994,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,62.41935483870969,29.395646169542744,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +citras-fm,61.935483870967744,28.813613264891856,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,57.25806451612904,27.111852608105036,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.85483870967742,31.05700816902527,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,56.12903225806451,27.50602341437721,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.64516129032258,25.835963292065955,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,54.19354838709677,29.58304480467261,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,51.7741935483871,24.782966501614755,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.61290322580645,27.089976643088885,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.38709677419355,25.824470924035413,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,47.258064516129025,22.597567437556975,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,39.032258064516135,21.484842601837784,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.45161290322581,20.770111290736605,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.387096774193544,18.81370670043465,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +TFT,27.580645161290324,15.894814429818338,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.806451612903224,17.77794697606161,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.2258064516129,14.370876624664398,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,20.161290322580644,7.249016480338232,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,19.35483870967742,9.543981657156008,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.451612903225806,-11.759514098130408,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.919354838709678,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.451612903225806,-13.85845893302955,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 90c5d57b0aadc27d90921180177e24e8f3a12135..b47a50956eb4c1999f3ade2ffaeb7cfb3c9883e9 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,88.83333333333336,44.435864980121934,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.5,44.776563341107924,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,78.00000000000001,40.60690859146885,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.83333333333331,40.695403658294204,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.50000000000001,41.35047562605596,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.83333333333331,40.091535519698354,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.5,40.05727690413393,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,74.33333333333334,42.13928857591004,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.50000000000001,39.95839791326732,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,69.33333333333334,39.911642441923746,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 -citras-fm,68.16666666666666,39.516970275559714,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.33333333333333,38.49451295549834,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,63.16666666666666,38.31376582969731,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.333333333333314,40.263858860252434,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.75,40.520744318361224,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 -FlowState,59.00000000000002,36.62739364766787,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,56.83333333333332,38.13822702047026,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.333333333333336,37.091644862848426,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.0,31.246086652472282,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,33.66666666666668,26.721365391127915,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 -TFT,31.58333333333333,22.687799915564245,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,29.166666666666675,25.85193474759363,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,25.33333333333333,21.589312484907442,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,25.166666666666664,18.53997314875826,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,24.499999999999996,18.15925526450699,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,23.666666666666664,17.368916958295777,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.416666666666664,18.494720285493216,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.333333333333332,16.511025407352477,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.583333333333329,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.333333333333334,-44.14903496940348,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.166666666666667,-45.704490127704766,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,89.51612903225806,44.716839455692046,0.0,0.925034852132863,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,87.90322580645162,44.435864980121934,0.0,2.1778554489416515,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.12903225806451,44.776563341107924,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,76.45161290322582,40.60690859146885,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.96774193548387,40.695403658294204,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.48387096774192,41.35047562605596,0.0,0.3251736416270779,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.74193548387096,42.13928857591004,0.0,223.4072169366242,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.74193548387096,40.091535519698354,0.0,2.4259903984922184,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.58064516129032,40.05727690413393,0.0,5.836743031095304,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,69.6774193548387,39.95839791326732,0.0,1.062050223421533,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.41935483870968,39.911642441923746,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +citras-fm,66.29032258064518,39.516970275559714,0.0,0.6893570083816576,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.61290322580646,38.49451295549834,0.0,0.24318868545675412,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.29032258064516,38.31376582969731,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.51612903225806,40.263858860252434,0.0,1.199606338748409,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.30645161290323,40.520744318361224,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +FlowState,57.58064516129032,36.62739364766787,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Toto-1.0,55.32258064516129,38.13822702047026,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.774193548387096,37.091644862848426,0.0,0.18067459324572688,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.87096774193549,31.246086652472282,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.58064516129033,26.721365391127915,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +TFT,30.725806451612907,22.687799915564245,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,28.225806451612907,25.85193474759363,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.516129032258068,21.589312484907442,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,24.35483870967742,18.53997314875826,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,23.70967741935484,18.15925526450699,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,22.903225806451616,17.368916958295777,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.693548387096776,18.494720285493216,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,18.70967741935484,16.511025407352477,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.209677419354838,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.129032258064517,-44.14903496940348,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.0645161290322585,-45.704490127704766,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv index 08b5ad51e24a19f4431226dca3365115722c7a1c..d7c9f91a7a3fb3273379877620f7d1e532b39a1c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,8 +1,25 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.018,-0.05,0.014 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.016,-0.057,0.015 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,0.005,0.113 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.025,-0.003,0.062 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.037,-0.001,0.091 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.042,-0.008,0.1 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.022,0.114 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,0.035,0.121 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.067,0.023,0.118 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.054,0.008,0.113 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.063,0.018,0.122 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.076,0.017,0.144 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.068,0.023,0.127 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.048,0.02,0.073 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.245,0.396 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,-0.014,0.047 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.002,-0.031,0.032 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,0.017,0.071 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,0.026,0.121 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,0.017,0.071 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.054,0.021,0.097 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,-0.013,0.136 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.082,0.045,0.118 @@ -12,13 +29,13 @@ TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.031,0.115 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.035,0.133 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.092,0.039,0.152 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.085,0.041,0.129 -TimesFM-3,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.12,0.056,0.199 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.065,0.013,0.106 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.255,0.408 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.016,-0.016,0.054 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.002,-0.033,0.03 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.04,-0.007,0.092 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.068,0.007,0.144 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.04,-0.007,0.092 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.004,0.116 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.057,0.001,0.13 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.08,0.034,0.13 @@ -28,29 +45,13 @@ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.013,0.135 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.078,0.017,0.153 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.09,0.034,0.152 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.063,0.019,0.106 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.044,-0.076,-0.017 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.042,-0.102,0.007 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.029,-0.007,0.064 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.013,-0.016,0.04 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.06,0.09 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.041,0.007,0.073 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,0.021,0.079 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.043,0.015,0.073 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.006,0.063 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.004,0.075 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,0.0,0.113 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.006,0.083 -TiRex-2,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,0.019,0.162 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.024,-0.04,0.064 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.229,0.383 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.056,-0.128,-0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.075,-0.138,-0.026 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.03,-0.068,0.007 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.03,-0.068,0.007 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.004 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.012,-0.114,0.058 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.013,-0.032,0.049 @@ -60,13 +61,29 @@ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.001,-0.025,0.024 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.011,-0.004,0.027 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.017,0.069 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.005,-0.1,0.047 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.026,-0.066,0.003 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.044,-0.076,-0.017 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.042,-0.102,0.007 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.029,-0.007,0.064 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.013,-0.016,0.04 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.06,0.09 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.041,0.007,0.073 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,0.021,0.079 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.043,0.015,0.073 +TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.006,0.063 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.004,0.075 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,0.0,0.113 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.006,0.083 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.024,-0.04,0.064 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.229,0.383 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.039,-0.1,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.057,-0.108,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.013,-0.042,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.004,0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.013,-0.042,0.015 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.094,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.002,0.064 @@ -76,13 +93,13 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,0.001,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.599,0.9,0.027,0.001,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.04,0.002,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.011,-0.073,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.044,-0.112,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.062,-0.157,0.013 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.06,-0.15,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.099,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.012,-0.062,0.102 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.099,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.091,0.086 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.064,0.115 @@ -92,13 +109,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.013,-0.078,0.106 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.022,-0.047,0.107 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.036,0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.046,0.113 -TabPFN-TS-3,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.066,-0.003,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.006,-0.054,0.054 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.217,0.359 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.129,-0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.089,-0.134,-0.047 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.087,-0.149,-0.036 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.043,-0.079,-0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.013,-0.051,0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.043,-0.079,-0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.069,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.13,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -108,13 +125,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.012,-0.053,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.045,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.011,-0.038,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.036,0.038 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.03,0.123 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.018,-0.096,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.265,0.191,0.348 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.137,-0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.098,-0.147,-0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.096,-0.164,-0.042 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.086,-0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.059,0.015 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.086,-0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.081,-0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.034,-0.135,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.009,-0.026,0.005 @@ -124,13 +141,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.021,-0.064,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.011,-0.053,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.003,-0.046,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.046,0.028 -Toto-2.0-1B,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.033,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.027,-0.105,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.188,0.34 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.072,-0.134,-0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.091,-0.136,-0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.089,-0.16,-0.029 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.045,-0.079,-0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.015,-0.056,0.022 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.045,-0.079,-0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.074,-0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.027,-0.135,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.002,-0.022,0.016 @@ -140,13 +157,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.061,0.024 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.049,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.009,-0.044,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.001,-0.042,0.042 -Toto-2.0-313m,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,-0.036,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.02,-0.1,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.263,0.186,0.351 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.057,-0.128,-0.008 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.076,-0.129,-0.032 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.068,0.006 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.001,-0.024,0.024 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.068,0.006 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.035,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.013,-0.119,0.073 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.012,-0.021,0.051 @@ -156,13 +173,13 @@ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.01,-0.016,0.041 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.016,0.077 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.006,-0.097,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.068,-0.139,-0.018 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.087,-0.154,-0.036 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.085,-0.181,-0.017 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.082,-0.004 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.011,-0.028,0.004 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.082,-0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.401,-0.028,-0.059,-0.001 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.023,-0.12,0.045 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.052,0.043 @@ -172,13 +189,13 @@ citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.01,-0.043,0.015 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.013,-0.037,0.067 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.005,-0.036,0.037 -citras-fm,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.044,-0.012,0.118 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.016,-0.106,0.039 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.204,0.346 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.082,-0.168,-0.017 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.101,-0.179,-0.041 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.099,-0.179,-0.036 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.128,-0.0 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.074,0.016 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.128,-0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.042,-0.104,-0.002 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.037,-0.137,0.035 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.011,-0.071,0.037 @@ -188,13 +205,13 @@ FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.083,0.015 FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.072,0.035 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.275,0.7,-0.008,-0.041,0.017 -FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.001,0.068 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.131,0.037 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.207,0.312 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.073,-0.145,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.092,-0.148,-0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.091,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.043,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.091,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.069,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.128,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.04,0.034 @@ -204,29 +221,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.015,-0.045,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.005,-0.039,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.725,0.008,-0.017,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.022,-0.114,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.137,-0.249,-0.06 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.194,-0.02 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.14,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.075,-0.178,-0.018 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.176,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.14,0.029 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.123,0.032 -Sundial-Base,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.042,-0.14,0.034 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.157,0.005 -Sundial-Base,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.046,-0.133,0.012 -Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.073,-0.001 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.063,-0.191,0.021 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.051,-0.079,-0.02 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.069,-0.118,-0.013 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.067,-0.119,-0.019 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.024,-0.068,0.038 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.005,-0.05,0.091 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.024,-0.068,0.038 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.011,-0.064,0.068 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.007,-0.057,0.052 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.031,0.088 @@ -236,13 +237,13 @@ TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.006,-0.05,0.088 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.016,-0.041,0.096 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.038,0.115 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.021,-0.037,0.102 -TS-ICL,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.06,-0.022,0.161 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.2,0.373 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.656,-0.324 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.688,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.621,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.621,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.591,-0.283 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.394,-0.56,-0.277 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.36,-0.533,-0.236 @@ -252,6 +253,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.565,-0.263 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.362,-0.529,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.453,-0.261 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.596,-0.25 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv index b8d2cba755bcbea71c7c4d786f8b959c8794e4be..c62569da6f5058c2a78f577b8cf4c71903c53007 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,257 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.013,-0.042,0.017 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.012,-0.046,0.017 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.077 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,0.008,0.121 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.052,0.008,0.109 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.049,-0.003,0.11 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.037,0.128 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.081,0.036,0.13 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.075,0.021,0.143 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.019,0.125 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.036,0.139 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.135 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.094,0.034,0.159 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.059,0.029,0.085 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.325,0.481 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.013,-0.018,0.04 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.035,0.033 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.049,0.023,0.077 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.071,0.028,0.123 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.064,0.029,0.107 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.091,0.053,0.128 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.061,-0.008,0.132 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.091,0.053,0.128 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.092,0.053,0.131 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.087,0.038,0.142 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.078,0.038,0.123 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.098,0.055,0.141 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.087,0.044,0.134 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.071,0.016,0.112 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.053,0.163 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.116,0.067,0.166 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.071,0.016,0.112 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.335,0.483 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.012,-0.017,0.044 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.001,-0.034,0.034 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.048,0.004,0.101 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.037,0.147 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,0.006,0.131 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.037,0.147 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.092,0.038,0.15 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,0.016,0.17 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.097,0.035,0.164 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,0.024,0.114 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.048,0.167 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.116,0.045,0.185 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,0.024,0.114 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.038,-0.083,-0.007 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.052,-0.083,-0.024 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.051,-0.112,-0.004 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.008,0.056 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.016,-0.013,0.044 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.044,0.017,0.072 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.013,-0.063,0.079 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.044,0.017,0.072 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.017,0.073 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.039,0.004,0.08 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.004,0.063 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.019,0.083 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.04,0.007,0.073 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.023,-0.044,0.063 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,0.014,0.108 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.071,0.035,0.103 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.023,-0.044,0.063 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.31,0.448 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.063,-0.138,-0.008 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.077,-0.14,-0.029 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.059,0.007 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.026,0.008 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.6,0.9,-0.011,-0.117,0.061 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.023,-0.007,0.056 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.017,-0.005,0.044 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.014,0.029 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.007,0.066 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,0.0,0.036 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.0,-0.094,0.053 TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,0.006,0.076 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.01,0.086 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.0,-0.094,0.053 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.297,0.424 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.054,-0.122,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.068,-0.12,-0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.016,-0.046,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.008,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.029,0.003,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.107,0.072 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.029,0.003,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,0.006,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.0,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.002,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.036,0.006,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.025,0.005,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.008,-0.078,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.045,0.011,0.09 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.056,0.022,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.008,-0.078,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.435 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.1,-0.147,-0.056 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.173,-0.039 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.046,-0.077,-0.017 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.056,0.011 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.069,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.033,-0.135,0.046 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.002,-0.008,0.011 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.045,0.041 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.014,-0.053,0.016 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.008,-0.012,0.031 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.004,-0.044,0.032 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.022,-0.099,0.022 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.016,-0.03,0.07 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,0.004,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.267,0.423 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.052,-0.124,0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.065,-0.152,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.151,-0.006 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.013,-0.086,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.4,0.01,-0.065,0.104 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.078,0.096 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.032,-0.048,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.032,-0.048,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.033,-0.048,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.027,-0.046,0.114 TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.018,-0.071,0.11 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.039,-0.048,0.126 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.045,0.117 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.01,-0.048,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.047,-0.022,0.129 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,-0.029,0.15 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.01,-0.048,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.295,0.443 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.146,-0.039 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.1,-0.147,-0.056 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.173,-0.039 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.046,-0.077,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.056,0.011 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.069,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.033,-0.135,0.046 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.002,-0.008,0.011 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.045,0.041 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.014,-0.053,0.016 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.008,-0.012,0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.004,-0.044,0.032 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.016,-0.03,0.07 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.022,-0.099,0.022 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.267,0.423 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.088,-0.149,-0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.102,-0.151,-0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.101,-0.176,-0.039 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.079,-0.018 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.023,-0.059,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.07,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.002,-0.011,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.034,-0.135,0.045 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.002,-0.011,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.048,0.037 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.016,-0.057,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.011,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.006,-0.048,0.031 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.024,-0.102,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.015,-0.035,0.068 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.026,0.005,0.046 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.024,-0.102,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.342,0.266,0.42 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.081,-0.167,-0.022 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.095,-0.165,-0.04 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.094,-0.205,-0.016 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.086,-0.004 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.017,-0.046,0.005 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.059,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.043,0.043 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.129,0.044 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.043,0.043 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.038,0.046 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.044,0.016 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.012,-0.027,0.052 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.001,-0.039,0.03 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.017,-0.113,0.042 citras-fm,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.021,-0.03,0.072 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.007,0.072 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.017,-0.113,0.042 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.285,0.421 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.07,-0.142,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.085,-0.14,-0.039 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.067,0.004 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.03,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.035,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.014,-0.016,0.051 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.124,0.066 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.014,-0.016,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.016,-0.018,0.054 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.016,0.042 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.018,0.062 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.3,0.6,0.01,-0.007,0.033 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.008,-0.096,0.047 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.03,-0.006,0.08 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,0.003,0.082 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.008,-0.096,0.047 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.286,0.426 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.161,-0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.109,-0.164,-0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.108,-0.195,-0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.09,-0.019 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.07,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.038,-0.081,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.008,-0.032,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.145,0.046 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.008,-0.032,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.027,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.013,-0.055,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.066,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.06,0.032 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.115,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.049,0.07 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.02,0.005,0.036 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.115,0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.338,0.258,0.42 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.156,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.096,-0.155,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.042,-0.078,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.018,-0.037,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.026,-0.048,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.004,-0.033,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.028,-0.133,0.043 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.004,-0.033,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.006,-0.031,0.046 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.001,-0.031,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.4,0.7,-0.01,-0.034,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.033,0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.11,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.006,0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.016,0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.11,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.288,0.41 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.076,-0.126,-0.016 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.076,-0.129,-0.024 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.024,-0.067,0.042 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.0,-0.056,0.086 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.008,-0.063,0.072 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.022,-0.023,0.09 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.01,-0.059,0.046 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.023,-0.021,0.092 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.017,-0.044,0.102 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.008,-0.049,0.087 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.023,0.103 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.038,0.099 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.037,-0.026,0.121 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.049,-0.006,0.126 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.277,0.453 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.104,-0.189,-0.035 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.195,-0.056 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.201,-0.05 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.063,-0.121,-0.015 FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.083,-0.006 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.047,-0.099,-0.011 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.016,-0.076,0.03 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.05,-0.148,0.022 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.016,-0.076,0.03 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.015,-0.073,0.034 FlowState,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.021,-0.077,0.029 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.031,-0.087,0.006 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.076,0.047 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.021,-0.057,0.006 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.039,-0.138,0.025 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.012,-0.061,0.067 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.039,-0.138,0.025 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.279,0.386 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.131,-0.198,-0.072 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.131,-0.227,-0.047 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.076,-0.114,-0.037 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.094,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.104,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.054,-0.004 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.062,-0.176,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.027,-0.048,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.034,-0.078,0.007 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.043,-0.09,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.021,-0.037,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.033,-0.083,0.016 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.051,-0.144,0.006 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.012,-0.072,0.057 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.324,0.244,0.408 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.062,-0.093,-0.03 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.076,-0.126,-0.016 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.076,-0.129,-0.024 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.024,-0.067,0.042 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.0,-0.056,0.086 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.008,-0.063,0.072 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.01,-0.059,0.046 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.022,-0.023,0.09 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.023,-0.021,0.092 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.017,-0.044,0.102 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.008,-0.049,0.087 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.023,0.103 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.038,0.099 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.037,-0.026,0.121 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.277,0.453 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-0.925,-0.481 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.675,-0.935,-0.505 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.81,-0.449 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.422 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.771,-0.426 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.732,-0.364 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.795,-0.418 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.732,-0.364 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.52,-0.725,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.728,-0.398 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.741,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.511,-0.725,-0.347 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.695,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.828,-0.384 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.63,-0.387 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.48,-0.69,-0.322 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.828,-0.384 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 05482167e679865d07c69a4d4e3288b13a466717..2f9947811e824ef3a156cdf10b1d19fc08fe022d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.042,0.025 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.045,0.013 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.063,0.023,0.105 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.051,0.007,0.101 @@ -12,10 +13,26 @@ TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.064,0.013,0.117 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.072,0.026,0.122 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,-0.014,0.085 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.049,0.136 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.109,0.058,0.156 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.028,0.147 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.273,0.413 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.025,0.041 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.035,0.017 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.068,0.024,0.118 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.009,0.114 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.046,0.02,0.082 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.06,0.011,0.121 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.07,0.027,0.12 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,-0.002,0.093 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,0.022,0.123 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.069,0.016,0.129 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.077,0.024,0.134 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.047,0.008,0.084 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.098,0.04,0.154 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.043,0.151 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.27,0.429 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.013,0.043 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.007,-0.018,0.034 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,0.028,0.128 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.063,0.007,0.129 @@ -28,10 +45,10 @@ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.076,0.014,0.145 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.083,0.023,0.15 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.053,0.013,0.094 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.051,0.188 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.1,0.038,0.166 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.434 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.068,-0.118,-0.023 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.073,-0.134,-0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.146,-0.028 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.026 @@ -44,10 +61,10 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.041,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.031,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.023,-0.114,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.015,0.075 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.049,-0.013,0.112 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.21,0.382 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.054,-0.113,-0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.128,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.067,-0.148,-0.007 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.027,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -60,10 +77,10 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.021,0.001,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.112,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.925,0.061,0.014,0.124 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.003,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.233,0.39 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.043,-0.082,-0.004 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.049,-0.089,-0.02 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.056,-0.116,-0.01 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.015,0.059 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.023,0.045 @@ -76,10 +93,10 @@ TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.014,0.063 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.005,0.068 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.0,-0.073,0.056 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.054,0.009,0.098 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.071,0.009,0.136 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.01,0.088 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.239,0.397 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.058,-0.124,-0.002 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.064,-0.138,-0.011 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.072,-0.159,-0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.027,0.042 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.023,0.014 @@ -92,10 +109,10 @@ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.01,0.028 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.017,-0.007,0.043 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.015,-0.127,0.062 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087 -TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.004,0.129 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,0.01,0.065 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.223,0.394 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.123,-0.021 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.075,-0.137,-0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.149,-0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.001,-0.012,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.056,0.021 @@ -108,10 +125,10 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.046,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.007,-0.034,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.025,-0.116,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.019,0.078 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.047,-0.019,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.025,-0.001,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.293,0.207,0.385 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.039,-0.086,0.017 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.044,-0.103,0.002 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.111,-0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.049,0.109 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.015,-0.065,0.1 @@ -124,10 +141,10 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.054,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.036,-0.038,0.122 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.004,-0.042,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.058,0.0,0.138 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.074,0.01,0.152 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,-0.041,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.249,0.384 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.068,-0.132,-0.01 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.14,-0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.082,-0.157,-0.02 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.001,-0.019,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.013,-0.063,0.022 @@ -140,10 +157,10 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.0,-0.05,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.008,-0.039,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.126,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,-0.025,0.087 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.048,-0.026,0.126 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.026,0.009,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.201,0.39 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.068,-0.132,-0.013 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.074,-0.148,-0.016 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.082,-0.17,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.041,0.039 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 @@ -156,10 +173,10 @@ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.008,-0.007,0.024 Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.134,0.054 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,0.001,0.113 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.026,-0.011,0.07 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.225,0.379 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.077,-0.139,-0.026 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.083,-0.155,-0.025 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.091,-0.177,-0.024 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.054,0.03 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.022,-0.043,-0.001 @@ -172,10 +189,10 @@ citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.008,-0.025,0.007 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.033,-0.136,0.044 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.299,0.75,0.023,-0.004,0.058 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.04,-0.005,0.101 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.018,-0.024,0.059 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.221,0.367 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.093,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.049,-0.092,-0.008 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.056,-0.103,-0.014 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.023,-0.051,0.102 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.01,-0.065,0.101 @@ -188,10 +205,10 @@ TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.057,0.118 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.032,-0.046,0.12 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.027,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.019,0.161 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.049,-0.036,0.142 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.311,0.219,0.402 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.157,-0.052 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.109,-0.182,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.082,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014 @@ -204,26 +221,10 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.701,-0.024,-0.062,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.161,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.012,0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.069,0.047 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.122,-0.185,-0.062 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.231,-0.054 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.051,-0.126,0.013 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.45,-0.065,-0.141,-0.014 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.076,-0.157,-0.009 -FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.148,-0.004 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.05,-0.13,0.018 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.08,-0.179,-0.01 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.05,-0.144,0.025 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.127,-0.001 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.042,-0.113,0.005 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.076,-0.192,0.019 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.056,0.012 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.023,-0.125,0.05 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.204,0.314 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.172,-0.029 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.177,-0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.111,-0.2,-0.04 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.027,-0.059,0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.085,-0.003 @@ -236,10 +237,10 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.027,-0.075,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.018,-0.063,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.052,-0.165,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.05,0.065 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.023,-0.052,0.111 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.183,0.377 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.703,-0.376 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.521,-0.751,-0.371 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.768,-0.369 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.417,-0.618,-0.266 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.641,-0.304 @@ -252,6 +253,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.61,-0.29 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.579,-0.284 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.45,-0.673,-0.281 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.457,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.604,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv index c6d47062225a9dc74a0d53b694e6de02dd09e24e..de29ff291d9e5d5281c366c73cd975fb957508ac 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,8 +1,25 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.005,-0.026,0.038 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.029,0.025 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.016,0.135 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.068,0.014,0.13 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,0.951,0.057,0.027,0.097 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.077,0.032,0.13 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.078,0.031,0.129 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.045,-0.001,0.097 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.079,0.029,0.136 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.08,0.025,0.144 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.029,0.149 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.101,0.046,0.162 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.044,0.163 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.075,0.037,0.109 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.369,0.522 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.005,-0.04,0.025 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.036,0.017 -TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,0.019,0.112 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.064,0.016,0.121 +TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,0.019,0.112 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.053,0.021,0.086 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,0.026,0.12 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.073,0.032,0.116 @@ -12,13 +29,13 @@ TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.026,0.131 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.081,0.033,0.133 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,0.036,0.155 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.099,0.053,0.145 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.002,0.12 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.07,0.011,0.114 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.375,0.508 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.026,0.028 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.018,0.035 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,0.006,0.143 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.058,0.014,0.111 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,0.025,0.137 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.079,0.029,0.134 @@ -28,29 +45,13 @@ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.081,0.017,0.152 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.087,0.022,0.157 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.102,0.035,0.174 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.17 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,0.028,0.12 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.03,0.124 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.371,0.518 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.067,-0.126,-0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.011,-0.049,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.026,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.011,-0.027,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.126,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.012,-0.03,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.599,0.95,0.019,0.001,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,-0.003,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.107,0.086 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.007,-0.083,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.156,-0.016 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.069,-0.137,-0.016 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.013,-0.057,0.022 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.022,0.04 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.024,0.04 @@ -60,13 +61,29 @@ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.005,0.029 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,-0.003,0.041 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.034,0.007,0.063 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.119,0.089 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.006,-0.09,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.073,-0.149,-0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.067,-0.126,-0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.011,-0.049,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.026,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.011,-0.027,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.126,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.012,-0.03,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.599,0.95,0.019,0.001,0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,-0.003,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.007,-0.083,0.062 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.15,0.049,0.3,-0.061,-0.107,-0.028 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.056,-0.094,-0.022 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.062,-0.125,-0.015 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.011,-0.024,0.046 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.013,-0.023,0.054 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.011,-0.024,0.046 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.021,0.063 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.022,-0.017,0.061 @@ -76,13 +93,13 @@ TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.024,-0.014,0.064 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.03,-0.005,0.07 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.046,0.004,0.089 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.049,0.009,0.087 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.068,0.083 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.018,-0.052,0.063 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.342,0.483 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.149,-0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.078,-0.136,-0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.159,-0.026 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.051,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.051,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.021,-0.067,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.01,0.013 @@ -92,13 +109,13 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.039,0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.032,0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.599,0.95,0.026,0.001,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.018,0.075 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.007,-0.11,0.079 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.003,-0.09,0.052 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.316,0.476 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.084,-0.148,-0.032 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.079,-0.131,-0.033 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.085,-0.155,-0.03 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.011,-0.049,0.026 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.042,0.023 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.011,-0.049,0.026 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.022,-0.064,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.013,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -108,13 +125,13 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.038,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.009,-0.03,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.025,-0.008,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,-0.017,0.071 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.008,-0.103,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.901,-0.003,-0.089,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.318,0.478 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.047,-0.108,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.041,-0.092,0.013 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.048,-0.105,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.024,-0.054,0.112 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.026,-0.062,0.123 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.024,-0.054,0.112 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.045,0.08 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.034,-0.05,0.122 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.035,-0.042,0.118 @@ -124,13 +141,13 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.037,-0.046,0.127 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.043,-0.034,0.132 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,-0.037,0.153 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.0,0.147 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.027,-0.026,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.031,-0.013,0.077 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.351,0.489 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.086,-0.157,-0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.081,-0.149,-0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.17,-0.017 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.012,-0.064,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.05,0.018 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.012,-0.064,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.074,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.002,-0.016,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.002,-0.022,0.022 @@ -140,13 +157,13 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.001,-0.049,0.041 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.007,-0.041,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.024,0.008,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.027,-0.03,0.081 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.009,-0.119,0.083 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.005,-0.1,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.4,0.309,0.483 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.087,-0.168,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.151,-0.027 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.179,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.03,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.025,-0.068,0.014 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.043,0.038 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.042,0.037 @@ -156,13 +173,13 @@ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.007,-0.007,0.02 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.023,-0.014,0.062 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.701,0.026,-0.0,0.057 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.126,0.08 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.006,-0.102,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.326,0.47 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.175,-0.03 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.154,-0.034 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.095,-0.186,-0.022 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.401,-0.02,-0.041,-0.001 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.042,0.003 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.401,-0.02,-0.041,-0.001 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.031,-0.076,0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.054,0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.009,-0.055,0.029 @@ -172,13 +189,13 @@ citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.007,-0.021,0.007 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.017,-0.023,0.056 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.02,-0.004,0.05 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.017,-0.135,0.074 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.013,-0.108,0.041 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.324,0.466 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.193,-0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.107,-0.183,-0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.114,-0.211,-0.036 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.082,0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.036,-0.067,-0.007 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.037,-0.082,0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.049,-0.098,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.05,0.401,-0.027,-0.052,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.026,-0.057,0.008 @@ -188,13 +205,13 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.024,-0.066,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.017,-0.059,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.05,0.056 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.034,-0.156,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.03,-0.129,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.385,0.298,0.472 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.195,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.11,-0.17,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.205,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.081,-0.007 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.052,-0.095,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.081,0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.029,-0.077,0.016 @@ -204,29 +221,13 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.299,0.625,-0.027,-0.061,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.02,-0.052,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.059,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.037,-0.149,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.033,-0.125,0.022 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.321,0.445 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.07,-0.137,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.137,-0.029 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.094,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.098,0.107 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.014,-0.091,0.063 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.007,-0.085,0.099 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.008,-0.082,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.028,-0.092,0.026 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.009,-0.09,0.106 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.01,-0.087,0.112 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.017,-0.08,0.119 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.033,-0.07,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.036,-0.059,0.129 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.067,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.405,0.315,0.487 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.081,-0.122,-0.039 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.075,-0.128,-0.011 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.141,-0.031 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.007,-0.066,0.077 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.006,-0.064,0.082 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.007,-0.066,0.077 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.019,-0.068,0.049 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.003,-0.055,0.083 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.099,0.45,0.003,-0.053,0.082 @@ -236,13 +237,13 @@ TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.054,0.092 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.043,0.098 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.029,-0.035,0.114 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.032,-0.022,0.111 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.066,0.063 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.322,0.487 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.809,-1.09,-0.584 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.8,-1.031,-0.601 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.811,-1.075,-0.59 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.918,-0.498 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-0.934,-0.519 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.669,-0.91,-0.462 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.668,-0.916,-0.467 @@ -252,6 +253,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.888,-0.484 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-0.872,-0.48 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.626,-0.893,-0.424 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.801,-0.472 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.681,-0.951,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-0.951,-0.474 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index ac61c7af1bdefdb425cd61a0628bccbfb712fc1a..ce88807b680cb36dcdb2e3ffb2771a0e9f56b5e4 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,90.30303030303034,47.55621992835576,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.36363636363637,43.274593608690935,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.18181818181816,38.012072708776955,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.81818181818181,37.79408298410066,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,75.90909090909092,40.3055564145123,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.0,37.57457322963014,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,73.63636363636363,41.08167576363031,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.87878787878786,39.98338380952686,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,65.00000000000003,36.99275058174338,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.03030303030304,35.239492739103106,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,62.57575757575757,32.88980053857977,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,60.606060606060595,33.495947925536605,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.63636363636363,36.74297271088556,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.30303030303031,32.908248043370314,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -FlowState,54.09090909090908,31.79411028713204,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.81818181818182,31.36627321795874,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -TFT,50.227272727272734,31.384747879961495,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.151515151515156,31.01250974524118,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.15151515151515,30.367855148176616,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,49.99999999999999,33.222787882390605,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,44.46969696969696,29.506456740093434,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,42.727272727272734,29.21300351912992,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,41.96969696969697,26.76214381001828,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -LightGBM,37.72727272727272,25.932640406312956,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,22.727272727272734,10.456399439111886,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,20.303030303030305,6.160851350393271,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,16.363636363636363,3.998984722231047,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.151515151515158,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.18181818181818,-42.82202736849552,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,5.0,-40.06899272444669,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.696969696969697,-48.09174161780307,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,89.73607038123168,47.55621992835576,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,85.63049853372434,44.72708180821884,0.0,5.368912849514648,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.91202346041057,43.274593608690935,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.83284457478007,38.012072708776955,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.5131964809384,37.79408298410066,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,74.19354838709677,40.3055564145123,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.60703812316716,37.57457322963014,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.4340175953079,41.08167576363031,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.42228739002933,39.98338380952686,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,63.19648093841642,36.99275058174338,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.730205278592365,35.239492739103106,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,60.85043988269795,32.88980053857977,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,59.237536656891486,33.495947925536605,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.03812316715542,36.74297271088556,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,53.95894428152492,32.908248043370314,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,52.785923753665685,31.79411028713204,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.146627565982406,31.36627321795874,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +TFT,49.193548387096776,31.384747879961495,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.82697947214076,31.01250974524118,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.68035190615835,33.222787882390605,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.53372434017595,30.367855148176616,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,43.32844574780058,29.506456740093434,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,41.34897360703812,29.21300351912992,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,40.90909090909091,26.76214381001828,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +LightGBM,36.51026392961877,25.932640406312956,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,21.994134897360702,10.456399439111886,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,19.648093841642225,6.160851350393271,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,15.835777126099707,3.998984722231047,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.662756598240467,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.917888563049852,-42.82202736849552,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,4.838709677419355,-40.06899272444669,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.545454545454546,-48.09174161780307,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 2f5ebfd5e80f102b68effbd04ae79045081ab3d9..5d5e68a0cf2e81b8536825f57edc6fb53db4556f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,91.21212121212122,58.352932092916234,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.33333333333334,54.953225710108875,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.75757575757578,50.48745378167907,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.69696969696969,50.428583049463136,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.42424242424241,53.101501553919526,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.81818181818181,50.15823868733569,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,76.2121212121212,52.262680445225705,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.75757575757575,52.229531070132175,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,66.81818181818181,48.27005882130029,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.06060606060606,46.668743596982175,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.878787878787875,48.75256757569677,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,61.66666666666668,46.31983629666182,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,60.606060606060595,48.743593703307816,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.75757575757575,45.95860067004889,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -FlowState,54.54545454545454,44.453296546133025,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.333333333333336,44.81296402028422,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -TFT,53.03030303030304,43.30535103216901,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.51515151515152,44.43807099079537,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.000000000000014,43.86628908183108,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,47.27272727272728,40.39134574673249,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,45.53030303030303,39.97944767271597,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Sundial-Base,42.727272727272734,42.152213930229635,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,30.60606060606062,30.253084957838638,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,27.727272727272734,27.020920595575927,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.090909090909086,16.197587961183302,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,20.454545454545457,10.597669802300436,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.712121212121211,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,9.848484848484848,-18.399683360301424,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,7.727272727272726,-115.54487654562027,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,5.909090909090908,-88.45846014959294,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.96969696969697,-93.63271001234882,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,90.76246334310851,58.352932092916234,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,86.07038123167155,55.690378938749085,0.0,5.368912849514648,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.11143695014663,54.953225710108875,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.32551319648094,50.48745378167907,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.59237536656892,50.428583049463136,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.80645161290323,53.101501553919526,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.51319648093842,50.15823868733569,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,74.34017595307918,52.262680445225705,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.35483870967742,52.229531070132175,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,65.39589442815249,48.27005882130029,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.36950146627566,46.668743596982175,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,61.14369501466276,48.75256757569677,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,60.117302052785924,46.31983629666182,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.09090909090909,48.743593703307816,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.10557184750734,45.95860067004889,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,52.93255131964808,44.453296546133025,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.90615835777127,44.81296402028422,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +TFT,51.61290322580645,43.30535103216901,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.85337243401759,44.43807099079537,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.38709677419355,43.86628908183108,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,46.04105571847508,40.39134574673249,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,44.354838709677416,39.97944767271597,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Sundial-Base,41.348973607038126,42.152213930229635,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,29.618768328445743,30.253084957838638,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.83284457478005,27.020920595575927,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.313782991202345,16.197587961183302,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,19.794721407624635,10.597669802300436,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.269794721407624,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,9.530791788856305,-18.399683360301424,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,7.478005865102638,-115.54487654562027,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,5.718475073313782,-88.45846014959294,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.906158357771261,-93.63271001234882,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 543ba9bb02cce2017610d05d47541a6742b14cb2..2f1ad7f3b87debd000a7be363ac6c15629cf242b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,90.0,52.32843376522832,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.30303030303028,48.442211767640465,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.63636363636364,44.0392065971128,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,77.72727272727272,46.36907361998035,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.57575757575759,43.99123172966048,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,76.96969696969695,43.62851836728188,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.39393939393939,46.85808081772759,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,69.24242424242422,45.702991488018526,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.15151515151516,41.333170223103686,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.57575757575757,42.21701827419201,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.09090909090909,42.611870287147646,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,57.72727272727275,38.169900254169384,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,57.72727272727273,38.84505918959146,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.87878787878788,37.12643024774067,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.424242424242415,36.99654984675513,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -FlowState,51.66666666666667,37.56998412861054,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TFT,51.28787878787878,34.60383117292584,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.848484848484844,37.34153531671359,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,48.48484848484848,36.49964295125293,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.36363636363636,37.11101339158358,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,45.984848484848484,35.56569107234838,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,45.151515151515156,33.348414178690675,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -CatBoost,41.060606060606055,33.472768156935786,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,38.48484848484848,30.689071842972925,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,23.787878787878793,14.36807817022936,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,17.121212121212125,3.8862087407703916,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.606060606060607,8.112535247477037,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.333333333333334,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.818181818181817,-23.683182452741146,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,9.696969696969695,-40.71283486742574,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.878787878787878,-28.294151790850574,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,89.14956011730204,52.32843376522832,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,84.1642228739003,49.763383952865645,0.0,5.368912849514648,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.88563049853371,48.442211767640465,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.41935483870968,44.0392065971128,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.53958944281524,43.99123172966048,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,76.24633431085044,46.36907361998035,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.80645161290323,43.62851836728188,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.87390029325515,46.85808081772759,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.88856304985337,45.702991488018526,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,64.07624633431084,41.333170223103686,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,60.70381231671554,42.21701827419201,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.62463343108505,42.611870287147646,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,56.304985337243394,38.84505918959146,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TiRex,56.158357771260995,38.169900254169384,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.46627565982405,37.12643024774067,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.733137829912025,36.99654984675513,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +FlowState,50.43988269794721,37.56998412861054,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TFT,50.0733137829912,34.60383117292584,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.38709677419355,37.34153531671359,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,47.0674486803519,36.49964295125293,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,45.16129032258065,37.11101339158358,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,44.941348973607035,35.56569107234838,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,43.988269794721404,33.348414178690675,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +CatBoost,39.882697947214076,33.472768156935786,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,37.5366568914956,30.689071842972925,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,23.020527859237536,14.36807817022936,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,16.56891495601173,3.8862087407703916,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,15.102639296187684,8.112535247477037,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.903225806451612,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.58357771260997,-23.683182452741146,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,9.530791788856304,-40.71283486742574,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.771260997067449,-28.294151790850574,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 58da5a6c1b8a5b905707bfa0737038883cfb2e37..486ec85e39bba30edf0dd423f8e6bf695d6920ea 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,89.69696969696972,62.79196483629832,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.7272727272727,59.682309132284814,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.96969696969697,56.12844010384532,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,80.9090909090909,56.2395222989352,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,78.93939393939394,57.9032728549639,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,78.33333333333333,55.784603227927796,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,76.96969696969697,58.30105761094302,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,73.93939393939394,57.72027179463593,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.12121212121212,53.81760956814947,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,63.18181818181817,51.65057901868925,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,61.5151515151515,53.815809519798606,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,60.151515151515156,53.906369718314394,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,59.3939393939394,51.63105123083261,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -FlowState,54.545454545454554,50.15888836772644,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TFT,54.393939393939405,46.76309293458979,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.93939393939393,50.324808783788264,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.12121212121211,50.034469733126286,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,50.000000000000014,49.586247329778175,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.3939393939394,50.06921700093749,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,47.95454545454546,46.321243230452545,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 -PatchTST,47.575757575757564,46.391259833433686,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,41.66666666666667,46.24435265048212,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,30.75757575757576,32.950990580941486,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,30.000000000000014,35.643842752802136,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,21.666666666666668,17.221454748984954,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,20.606060606060606,12.55153817097112,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.863636363636363,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,10.0,-14.943560774920094,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,7.575757575757574,-129.66660306044423,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 -Naive,6.363636363636363,-74.36309704922827,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.727272727272727,-79.22788676890997,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,88.85630498533725,62.79196483629832,0.0,18.973215651276405,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,83.43108504398828,60.28317010218893,0.0,5.368912849514648,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.3782991202346,59.682309132284814,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,80.79178885630499,56.12844010384532,0.0,6.406093001785714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,79.76539589442815,56.2395222989352,0.0,3.1623076374715904,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,77.5659824046921,57.9032728549639,0.0,3.3877006834140047,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.12609970674487,55.784603227927796,0.0,1.5948793911160717,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.36656891495602,58.30105761094302,0.0,1.0366915774648078,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,72.58064516129032,57.72027179463593,0.0,473.72171750777073,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.12903225806451,53.81760956814947,0.0,0.7798815821022727,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.87683284457477,51.65057901868925,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,59.824046920821104,53.815809519798606,0.0,7.286322847351336,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.65102639296187,53.906369718314394,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,58.35777126099707,51.63105123083261,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,53.2258064516129,50.15888836772644,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TFT,52.932551319648105,46.76309293458979,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.49266862170088,50.324808783788264,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.733137829912025,50.034469733126286,0.0,0.7003870921590909,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,48.38709677419355,49.586247329778175,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,47.947214076246325,50.06921700093749,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,46.70087976539589,46.321243230452545,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +PatchTST,46.48093841642229,46.391259833433686,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,40.469208211143695,46.24435265048212,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,29.76539589442815,32.950990580941486,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,29.03225806451613,35.643842752802136,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,20.967741935483872,17.221454748984954,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,19.941348973607038,12.55153817097112,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.416422287390029,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,9.67741935483871,-14.943560774920094,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,7.331378299120233,-129.66660306044423,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.158357771260996,-74.36309704922827,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.6392961876832843,-79.22788676890997,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 05f6e41c8eca6ba1cd5a6e36974a11e30de50eec..4ea70d45f68a520ed9b8877b1551595815ab5f89 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.051,-0.007,0.097 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.075,0.028,0.119 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.154,0.059,0.25 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.157,0.063,0.25 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.121,0.072,0.17 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.16,0.062,0.257 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.121,0.072,0.17 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.11,0.048,0.172 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.126,0.063,0.191 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.104,0.233 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.19,0.101,0.279 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.219,0.127,0.303 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.171,0.107,0.235 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.211,0.123,0.293 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.171,0.107,0.235 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.218,0.133,0.304 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.231,0.148,0.308 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.165,0.328 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.386,0.555 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.054,-0.108,0.007 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.026,0.003,0.054 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.108,0.012,0.206 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.111,0.015,0.208 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.115,0.016,0.214 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.074,0.033,0.121 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.062,0.024,0.107 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.079,0.031,0.142 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.123,0.074,0.169 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.147,0.061,0.233 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.176,0.088,0.261 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.169,0.078,0.252 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.126,0.081,0.175 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.176,0.094,0.26 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.12,0.286 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.447,0.362,0.53 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.082,-0.136,-0.029 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.026,-0.057,-0.003 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.085,-0.007,0.179 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.088,-0.001,0.182 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.636,0.409,0.819,0.05,0.016,0.085 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.091,-0.0,0.186 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.636,0.409,0.819,0.05,0.016,0.085 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.037,-0.006,0.087 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.055,-0.003,0.12 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.1,0.054,0.142 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.124,0.045,0.204 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.155,0.074,0.232 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.103,0.054,0.151 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.067,0.222 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.103,0.054,0.151 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.078,0.231 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.168,0.094,0.235 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.258 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.348,0.515 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.182,-0.334,-0.062 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.121,-0.259,-0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.093,-0.219,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.004,-0.004,0.011 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.038,-0.134,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.007,-0.002,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.038,-0.134,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.052,-0.178,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.033,-0.202,0.109 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.016,-0.065,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.043,0.026,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.076,0.025,0.148 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.02,-0.12,0.13 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.068,0.021,0.126 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.02,-0.12,0.13 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.076,0.046,0.112 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.091,0.042,0.15 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.11,0.049,0.179 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.38,0.276,0.493 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.186,-0.334,-0.067 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.125,-0.263,-0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.097,-0.222,0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.004,-0.012,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.042,-0.139,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.227,0.636,0.004,-0.005,0.013 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.042,-0.139,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.056,-0.183,0.043 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.036,-0.199,0.108 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.013,-0.066,0.09 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.073,0.024,0.141 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.017,-0.121,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.065,0.02,0.125 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.017,-0.121,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.073,0.045,0.105 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.088,0.041,0.146 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.107,0.044,0.179 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.378,0.275,0.49 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.138,-0.205,-0.077 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.364,0.181,0.591,-0.052,-0.092,-0.016 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.037,-0.051,0.119 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.04,-0.046,0.122 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.044,-0.045,0.129 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.013,-0.068,0.036 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.363,0.727,0.005,-0.07,0.077 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.053,0.01,0.088 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.078,0.003,0.152 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.111,0.046,0.176 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.056,-0.004,0.109 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.102,0.037,0.166 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.11,0.047,0.179 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.125,0.068,0.18 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.143,0.073,0.214 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.403,0.322,0.483 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.19,-0.347,-0.067 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.129,-0.272,-0.016 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.1,-0.228,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.007,-0.015,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.773,-0.004,-0.013,0.005 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.046,-0.149,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.046,-0.149,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.06,-0.195,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.04,-0.211,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.591,0.409,0.774,0.009,-0.076,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.036,0.019,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.07,0.022,0.139 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.013,-0.132,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.061,0.015,0.121 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.013,-0.132,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.682,0.955,0.07,0.042,0.104 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.035,0.143 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.103,0.043,0.175 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.376,0.273,0.488 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.138,-0.205,-0.077 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.08,-0.138,-0.034 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.364,0.181,0.591,-0.052,-0.092,-0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.037,-0.051,0.119 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.04,-0.046,0.122 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.044,-0.045,0.129 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.013,-0.068,0.036 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.363,0.727,0.005,-0.07,0.077 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.053,0.01,0.088 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.078,0.003,0.152 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.111,0.046,0.176 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.102,0.037,0.166 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.056,-0.004,0.109 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.11,0.047,0.179 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.143,0.073,0.214 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.403,0.322,0.483 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.123,-0.207,-0.05 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.066,-0.12,-0.025 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.039,-0.095,0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.05,-0.051,0.151 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.053,-0.045,0.155 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.013,-0.038,0.063 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.056,-0.045,0.163 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.013,-0.038,0.063 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.018,-0.054,0.09 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.065,0.018,0.118 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.09,0.005,0.183 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.122,0.041,0.204 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.069,0.023,0.115 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.114,0.024,0.202 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.069,0.023,0.115 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.122,0.038,0.215 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.136,0.062,0.217 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.154,0.078,0.235 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.329,0.497 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.144,-0.236,-0.067 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.086,-0.165,-0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.058,-0.136,0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.032,-0.122,0.168 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.035,-0.122,0.166 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.455,0.273,0.637,-0.005,-0.084,0.066 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.039,-0.112,0.174 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.455,0.273,0.637,-0.005,-0.084,0.066 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.019,-0.099,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.591,0.408,0.773,0.047,-0.026,0.117 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.073,-0.058,0.193 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.106,0.006,0.211 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.051,0.006,0.093 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.318,0.728,0.098,-0.011,0.204 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.051,0.006,0.093 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.105,-0.011,0.22 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.12,0.022,0.222 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.138,0.035,0.237 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.32,0.472 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.303,-0.116 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.14,-0.203,-0.08 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.111,-0.166,-0.058 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.016,-0.104,0.061 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.099,0.062 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.055,-0.097,-0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.409,0.226,0.591,-0.009,-0.097,0.07 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.055,-0.097,-0.01 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.069,-0.134,-0.018 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.409,0.227,0.592,-0.05,-0.132,0.025 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.027,-0.038,0.091 citras-fm,TiRex,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.061,0.011,0.119 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.004,-0.061,0.058 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.053,-0.003,0.112 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.004,-0.061,0.058 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.061,0.003,0.124 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.076,0.026,0.126 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.095,0.045,0.151 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.292,0.452 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.235,-0.386,-0.112 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.172,-0.304,-0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.142,-0.256,-0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.045,-0.071,-0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.041,-0.066,-0.024 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.085,-0.179,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.037,-0.063,-0.019 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.085,-0.179,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.099,-0.224,-0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.079,-0.24,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.028,-0.1,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.035,-0.004,0.089 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.024,-0.158,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.026,-0.012,0.072 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.024,-0.158,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.035,0.013,0.06 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.051,0.009,0.094 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.07,0.019,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.352,0.254,0.455 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.28,-0.435,-0.145 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.214,-0.352,-0.097 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.183,-0.301,-0.08 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.083,-0.173,-0.026 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.079,-0.164,-0.025 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.124,-0.213,-0.048 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.075,-0.162,-0.022 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.124,-0.213,-0.048 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.139,-0.256,-0.042 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.118,-0.268,-0.006 TiRex,citras-fm,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.065,-0.134,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.036,-0.097,0.004 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.061,-0.19,0.033 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.061,-0.19,0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,-0.0,-0.055,0.036 -TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.016,-0.016,0.047 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.036,-0.009,0.097 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.253,0.409 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.206,-0.306,-0.12 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.115,-0.178,-0.058 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.02,-0.15,0.107 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.144,0.108 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.06,-0.123,0.004 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.013,-0.14,0.117 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.074,-0.13,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.054,-0.102,-0.007 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.004,-0.062,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.023,-0.084,0.136 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.057,-0.034,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.049,-0.043,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.166 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.073,-0.011,0.167 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.092,0.001,0.187 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.367,0.283,0.452 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.268,-0.415,-0.14 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.203,-0.338,-0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.072 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.073,-0.144,-0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.069,-0.143,-0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.114,-0.199,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.065,-0.137,-0.015 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.114,-0.199,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.129,-0.254,-0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.455,0.272,0.682,-0.108,-0.256,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.055,-0.127,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.027,-0.078,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.009,-0.023,0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.051,-0.179,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.051,-0.179,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.009,-0.036,0.044 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.025,-0.003,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.045,-0.004,0.102 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.248,0.422 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.206,-0.306,-0.12 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.144,-0.213,-0.089 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.115,-0.178,-0.058 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.02,-0.15,0.107 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.144,0.108 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.013,-0.14,0.117 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.06,-0.123,0.004 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.074,-0.13,-0.023 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.054,-0.102,-0.007 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.004,-0.062,0.057 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.023,-0.084,0.136 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.057,-0.034,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.049,-0.043,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.092,0.001,0.187 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.367,0.283,0.452 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.279,-0.436,-0.154 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.214,-0.351,-0.103 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.183,-0.3,-0.085 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.082,-0.126,-0.048 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.079,-0.118,-0.048 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.124,-0.219,-0.05 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.318,-0.075,-0.116,-0.044 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.124,-0.219,-0.05 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.139,-0.273,-0.04 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.118,-0.282,0.011 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.065,-0.141,-0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.036,-0.063,-0.013 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.545,0.0,-0.037,0.052 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.199,0.04 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.009,-0.046,0.035 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.199,0.04 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.016,-0.018,0.056 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.036,-0.015,0.099 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.236,0.432 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.301,-0.446,-0.173 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.202,-0.308,-0.104 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.1,-0.176,-0.044 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.096,-0.171,-0.043 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.143,-0.22,-0.073 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.093,-0.166,-0.037 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.158,-0.278,-0.066 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.136,-0.286,-0.023 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.083,-0.145,-0.026 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.053,-0.104,-0.009 -FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.016,-0.049,0.015 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.078,-0.2,0.011 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.026,-0.054,0.003 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.017,-0.059,0.018 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.02,-0.035,0.089 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.318,0.228,0.405 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.487,-0.197 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.26,-0.4,-0.137 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.347,-0.122 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.123,-0.217,-0.051 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.119,-0.218,-0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.166,-0.272,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.115,-0.212,-0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.166,-0.272,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.182,-0.308,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.16,-0.31,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.105,-0.178,-0.047 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.075,-0.149,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.038,-0.107,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.101,-0.23,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.047,-0.114,0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.101,-0.23,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.038,-0.109,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.021,-0.097,0.034 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.817,1.0,0.304,0.206,0.4 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.907,-1.249,-0.628 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.809,-1.13,-0.568 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.763,-1.06,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.613,-0.974,-0.382 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.608,-0.961,-0.379 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.675,-0.933,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.602,-0.952,-0.376 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.675,-0.933,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.697,-0.986,-0.489 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-0.894,-0.47 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.587,-0.823,-0.412 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.544,-0.835,-0.341 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.691,-0.338 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.581,-0.825,-0.395 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.73,-0.33 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.581,-0.825,-0.395 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.762,-0.309 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.466,-0.681,-0.295 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.183,-0.436,-0.667,-0.26 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index a5c8a7bfaa2ee4fe46176f328da0dda868cb3fd3..e73ff6c3b7f63113287f608d5fa0309fd0c5edb8 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.06,0.01,0.106 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.075,0.03,0.119 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.159,0.063,0.254 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.16,0.064,0.254 @@ -13,10 +14,27 @@ TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.187,0.126,0.253 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.187,0.122,0.252 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.135,0.308 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.229,0.141,0.319 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.25,0.162,0.33 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.177,0.338 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.515,0.645 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.064,-0.118,-0.01 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.016,-0.003,0.039 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.105,0.012,0.199 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.106,0.015,0.2 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.111,0.017,0.207 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.055,0.019,0.101 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.072,0.033,0.113 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.072,0.022,0.133 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.143,0.059,0.23 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.169,0.083,0.251 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.135,0.086,0.182 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.136,0.089,0.186 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.175,0.087,0.257 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.18,0.098,0.264 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.129,0.286 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.557,0.491,0.619 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.082,-0.136,-0.031 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.017,-0.04,0.003 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.09,0.008,0.176 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.091,0.008,0.179 @@ -30,10 +48,10 @@ Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.121,0.077,0.164 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.681,0.955,0.121,0.068,0.173 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.161,0.079,0.235 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.09,0.246 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.189,0.111,0.257 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.125,0.266 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.483,0.612 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.189,-0.341,-0.067 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.117,-0.249,-0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.099,-0.214,-0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.001,-0.008,0.01 @@ -47,10 +65,10 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.034,-0.04,0.098 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.034,-0.108,0.144 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.078,0.038,0.123 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.084,0.06,0.111 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.109,0.063,0.159 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.118,0.067,0.175 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.419,0.586 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.19,-0.34,-0.068 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.119,-0.25,-0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.1,-0.218,-0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.001,-0.01,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -64,10 +82,10 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.033,-0.039,0.099 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.033,-0.11,0.143 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.077,0.037,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.059,0.108 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.108,0.064,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.117,0.063,0.178 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.42,0.586 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.197,-0.356,-0.069 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.125,-0.262,-0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.106,-0.227,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.007,-0.015,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.005,-0.014,0.003 @@ -81,10 +99,10 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.027,-0.05,0.098 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.028,-0.124,0.139 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.072,0.03,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.078,0.053,0.106 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.103,0.059,0.156 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.112,0.058,0.174 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.415,0.585 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.126,-0.216,-0.052 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.058,-0.112,-0.019 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.041,-0.099,0.004 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.053,-0.043,0.152 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.054,-0.041,0.154 @@ -98,10 +116,10 @@ TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.085,0.038,0.134 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.085,0.031,0.139 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.126,0.036,0.217 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.132,0.049,0.227 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.156,0.078,0.236 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.165,0.091,0.241 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.46,0.601 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.146,-0.211,-0.084 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.077,-0.128,-0.034 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.06,-0.098,-0.024 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.036,-0.047,0.114 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.037,-0.046,0.113 @@ -115,10 +133,10 @@ TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.068,0.028,0.103 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.069,0.004,0.128 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.111,0.044,0.176 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.117,0.05,0.187 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.198 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.15,0.08,0.214 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.455,0.587 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.147,-0.234,-0.074 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.078,-0.154,-0.022 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.06,-0.136,-0.002 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.035,-0.105,0.165 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.036,-0.107,0.164 @@ -132,10 +150,10 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.068,-0.005,0.14 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.068,0.02,0.11 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.318,0.728,0.11,-0.001,0.219 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.116,-0.0,0.23 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.14,0.038,0.241 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.149,0.047,0.248 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.462,0.576 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.242,-0.4,-0.112 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.167,-0.298,-0.063 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.148,-0.263,-0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.061,-0.032 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.044,-0.063,-0.029 @@ -149,10 +167,10 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.009,-0.08,0.05 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.009,-0.153,0.099 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.036,0.001,0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.043,0.024,0.064 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.069,0.027,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.078,0.03,0.133 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.483,0.399,0.563 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.281,-0.439,-0.146 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.204,-0.335,-0.091 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.184,-0.299,-0.082 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.077,-0.151,-0.028 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.076,-0.151,-0.027 @@ -166,10 +184,10 @@ TiRex,citras-fm,0.545,0.363,0.728,-0.041,-0.107,0.012 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.04,-0.177,0.062 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.006,-0.026,0.038 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.013,-0.037,0.043 -TiRex,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.04,0.006,0.073 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.05,0.008,0.102 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.393,0.537 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.231,-0.338,-0.144 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.157,-0.222,-0.094 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.138,-0.196,-0.083 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.035,-0.109,0.038 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.034,-0.109,0.038 @@ -183,10 +201,10 @@ citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.0,-0.074,0.066 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.045,-0.01,0.105 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.052,-0.004,0.116 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.077,0.027,0.129 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.087,0.039,0.14 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.417,0.558 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.231,-0.337,-0.139 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.157,-0.228,-0.098 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.319,-0.138,-0.209,-0.073 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.035,-0.168,0.097 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.034,-0.167,0.099 @@ -200,10 +218,10 @@ TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.0,-0.071,0.069 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.045,-0.059,0.156 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.052,-0.065,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.077,-0.027,0.18 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.087,-0.014,0.186 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.416,0.557 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.444,-0.155 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.211,-0.346,-0.095 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.192,-0.308,-0.086 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.084,-0.141,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.083,-0.144,-0.038 @@ -217,10 +235,10 @@ TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.047,-0.117,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.047,-0.184,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.007,-0.035,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.659,0.455,0.818,0.034,0.002,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.044,-0.001,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.379,0.539 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.298,-0.469,-0.164 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.22,-0.359,-0.109 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.2,-0.326,-0.099 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.125,-0.063 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.09,-0.122,-0.063 @@ -234,27 +252,10 @@ Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.054,-0.207,0.061 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.007,-0.04,0.034 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.027,-0.01,0.067 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.037,-0.011,0.093 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.372,0.544 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.334,-0.492,-0.193 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.233,-0.345,-0.125 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.122,-0.189,-0.067 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.121,-0.189,-0.069 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.114,-0.185,-0.062 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.184,-0.309,-0.084 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.164,-0.247,-0.085 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.163,-0.318,-0.04 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.074,-0.129,-0.028 -FlowState,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.042,-0.079,-0.006 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.084,-0.148,-0.028 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.084,-0.219,0.026 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.545,-0.035,-0.069,-0.002 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.028,-0.072,0.01 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.751,0.01,-0.047,0.073 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.445,0.359,0.525 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.511,-0.216 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.267,-0.4,-0.148 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.363,-0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.134,-0.213,-0.072 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.132,-0.217,-0.068 @@ -268,10 +269,10 @@ Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.095,-0.163,-0.041 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.095,-0.228,0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.046,-0.106,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.039,-0.103,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.432,0.249,0.614,-0.011,-0.079,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.439,0.356,0.522 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.401,-1.82,-1.062 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.257,-1.624,-0.965 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.574,-0.932 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.417,-0.721 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.017,-1.417,-0.723 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.951,-1.261,-0.715 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.951,-1.257,-0.712 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.863,-1.171,-0.61 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.192,-0.592 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.8,-1.106,-0.561 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.781,-1.092,-0.552 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 333718df39fa61184335cf45e7684f8f8af3ab54..ce161cc7de2d67abe0b1d11a6e0cf65c074b03f0 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.075,0.012,0.132 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.051,-0.022,0.114 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.148,0.055,0.234 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.075,0.012,0.132 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.154,0.061,0.24 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.149,0.056,0.234 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.111,0.05,0.17 @@ -13,29 +14,29 @@ TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.169,0.099,0.236 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.229,0.144,0.308 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.22,0.141,0.297 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.242,0.159,0.318 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.163,0.321 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.165,0.313 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.418,0.614 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.082,-0.152,-0.012 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.014,0.168 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.318,0.683,0.085,-0.008,0.174 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.012,0.172 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.039,-0.001,0.077 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.03,-0.017,0.083 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.05,-0.009,0.113 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.121,0.045,0.198 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.108,0.064,0.149 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.151 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.157,0.08,0.228 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.26 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.182,0.113,0.247 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.243 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.484,0.381,0.579 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.054,-0.129,0.022 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.102,0.004,0.201 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.026,0.005,0.051 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.109,0.01,0.207 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.103,0.004,0.202 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.063,0.014,0.117 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.055,0.013,0.107 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.727,0.545,0.865,0.075,0.017,0.141 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.144,0.06,0.227 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.131,0.08,0.178 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.178 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.188,0.1,0.27 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.179,0.091,0.26 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.201,0.112,0.29 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.198,0.122,0.272 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.393,0.59 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.174,-0.305,-0.058 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.085,-0.202,0.014 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.114,-0.251,-0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.085,-0.202,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.007,-0.001,0.015 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.001,-0.016,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.409,0.226,0.591,-0.043,-0.147,0.052 @@ -47,12 +48,29 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.025,-0.098,0.127 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.167 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.031,0.147 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.11,0.066,0.171 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.112,0.05,0.186 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.058,0.168 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.44,0.318,0.566 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.082,-0.152,-0.012 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.026,-0.054,-0.005 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.014,0.168 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.318,0.683,0.085,-0.008,0.174 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.079,-0.012,0.172 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.039,-0.001,0.077 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.03,-0.017,0.083 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.05,-0.009,0.113 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.121,0.045,0.198 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.108,0.064,0.149 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.151 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.157,0.08,0.228 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.26 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.243 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.484,0.381,0.579 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.182,-0.315,-0.065 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.5,0.317,0.682,-0.093,-0.211,0.008 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.122,-0.26,-0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.015,0.001 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.5,0.317,0.682,-0.093,-0.211,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.006,-0.027,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.051,-0.159,0.045 @@ -64,12 +82,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.018,-0.11,0.123 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.088,0.034,0.161 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.078,0.028,0.14 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.162 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.105,0.045,0.181 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.1,0.052,0.161 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.436,0.312,0.561 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.175,-0.306,-0.059 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.086,-0.207,0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.115,-0.254,-0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.001,-0.014,0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.086,-0.207,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.006,-0.008,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.044,-0.147,0.047 @@ -81,12 +99,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.024,-0.098,0.126 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.094,0.034,0.167 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.084,0.033,0.144 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.109,0.065,0.165 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.111,0.049,0.187 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.106,0.056,0.168 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.319,0.565 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.125,-0.205,-0.052 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.04,-0.083,0.001 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.068,-0.132,-0.014 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.591,0.409,0.774,0.042,-0.055,0.129 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.04,-0.083,0.001 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.049,-0.047,0.137 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.042,-0.049,0.128 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -98,12 +116,12 @@ TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.065,0.018,0.108 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.133,0.064,0.202 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.682,0.955,0.123,0.06,0.187 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.075,0.222 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.149,0.086,0.213 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.144,0.083,0.205 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.371,0.553 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.115,-0.217,-0.025 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.031,-0.09,0.016 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.058,-0.12,-0.013 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.05,-0.054,0.153 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.031,-0.09,0.016 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.057,-0.048,0.164 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.051,-0.053,0.157 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.009,-0.039,0.06 @@ -115,12 +133,12 @@ TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.074,0.032,0.12 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.141,0.059,0.221 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.131,0.045,0.221 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.155,0.061,0.253 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.157,0.083,0.233 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.152,0.078,0.231 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.372,0.565 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.139,-0.238,-0.058 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.053,-0.127,0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.273,0.135,0.455,-0.081,-0.164,-0.017 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.03,-0.118,0.149 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.053,-0.127,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.037,-0.111,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.031,-0.115,0.149 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.409,0.227,0.592,-0.012,-0.084,0.049 @@ -132,12 +150,12 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.054,0.01,0.095 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.122,0.029,0.216 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.112,0.017,0.203 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.136,0.023,0.238 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.138,0.057,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.133,0.049,0.213 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.361,0.54 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.231,-0.363,-0.116 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.138,-0.247,-0.047 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.168,-0.293,-0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.048,-0.078,-0.026 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.138,-0.247,-0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.041,-0.07,-0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.047,-0.076,-0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.409,0.226,0.591,-0.094,-0.192,-0.009 @@ -149,12 +167,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.022,-0.13,0.072 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.051,0.006,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.041,-0.003,0.087 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.067,0.027,0.115 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.069,0.022,0.127 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.064,0.029,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.299,0.535 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.212,-0.324,-0.121 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.121,-0.175,-0.068 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.15,-0.216,-0.087 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.033,-0.12,0.042 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.121,-0.175,-0.068 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.025,-0.11,0.049 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.032,-0.116,0.044 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.077,-0.126,-0.034 @@ -166,12 +184,12 @@ citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.007,-0.067,0.047 citras-fm,TiRex,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.065,0.017,0.118 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.055,0.004,0.11 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.081,0.02,0.149 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.083,0.041,0.125 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.078,0.041,0.122 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.422,0.318,0.524 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.204,-0.309,-0.11 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.113,-0.178,-0.05 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.142,-0.216,-0.074 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.026,-0.146,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.113,-0.178,-0.05 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.018,-0.141,0.099 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.025,-0.144,0.089 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.07,-0.121,-0.018 @@ -183,12 +201,12 @@ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.072,-0.018,0.158 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.062,-0.02,0.148 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.087,-0.015,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.089,0.013,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.084,0.009,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.322,0.523 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.297,-0.445,-0.168 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.199,-0.312,-0.097 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.231,-0.369,-0.111 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.105,-0.201,-0.039 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.199,-0.312,-0.097 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.097,-0.191,-0.035 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.104,-0.2,-0.036 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.153,-0.253,-0.068 @@ -200,12 +218,12 @@ TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.077,-0.188,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.011,-0.05,0.023 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.042,0.059 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.019,-0.004,0.039 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.013,-0.016,0.042 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.382,0.279,0.484 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.423,-0.165 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.217,-0.352,-0.1 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.093,-0.173,-0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.085,-0.162,-0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.092,-0.168,-0.034 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.318,-0.14,-0.23,-0.064 @@ -217,12 +235,12 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.066,-0.174,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.011,-0.023,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.659,0.027,-0.022,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.029,-0.011,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.341,0.705,0.024,-0.007,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.28,0.499 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.319,-0.467,-0.189 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.352,-0.11 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.252,-0.409,-0.126 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.124,-0.206,-0.071 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.352,-0.11 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.115,-0.193,-0.065 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.123,-0.198,-0.069 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.081 @@ -234,29 +252,12 @@ Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.096,-0.233,0.014 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.062,0.04 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.523,0.341,0.705,-0.028,-0.079,0.021 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.002,-0.052,0.064 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,-0.003,-0.05,0.044 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.371,0.26,0.487 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.473,-0.194 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.222,-0.328,-0.127 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.126,-0.229,-0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.118,-0.221,-0.047 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.125,-0.229,-0.051 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.175,-0.271,-0.094 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.186,-0.303,-0.09 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.16,-0.278,-0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.074,-0.145,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.09,-0.142,-0.043 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.098,-0.195,-0.013 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.019,-0.041,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.03,-0.074,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.002,-0.068,0.049 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.006,-0.036,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.37,0.264,0.475 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.456,-0.197 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.215,-0.32,-0.123 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.247,-0.373,-0.139 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.202,-0.062 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.215,-0.32,-0.123 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.112,-0.193,-0.055 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.119,-0.202,-0.06 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.168,-0.258,-0.09 @@ -268,12 +269,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.092,-0.195,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.043,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.659,-0.025,-0.062,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,0.003,-0.046,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.005,-0.022,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.484 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.098,-1.591,-0.718 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.94,-1.374,-0.616 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.991,-1.437,-0.648 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.787,-1.306,-0.466 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.94,-1.374,-0.616 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.774,-1.279,-0.454 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.301,-0.469 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.865,-1.235,-0.59 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.097,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.617,-0.937,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.996,-0.389 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.59,-0.949,-0.351 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.587,-0.905,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.596,-0.938,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 26d8ebd88731a88a22d32162af57379e61e9fc72..1d10eb247b56767da1cee7adbacc251086b4fd63 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.063,-0.007,0.126 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.152,0.056,0.238 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.077,0.018,0.131 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.15,0.053,0.235 @@ -12,11 +13,28 @@ TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.23,0.147,0.31 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.193,0.119,0.26 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.126,0.264 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.147,0.309 -TimesFM-3,TFT,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.301,0.154,0.427 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.253,0.168,0.331 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.181,0.328 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.545,0.697 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.067,-0.144,0.007 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.095,-0.002,0.19 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.015,-0.006,0.037 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.092,-0.009,0.191 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.102,0.006,0.197 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.057,0.006,0.108 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.048,0.006,0.1 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.061,0.005,0.128 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.14,0.052,0.226 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.179,0.091,0.259 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.138,0.078,0.192 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.14,0.089,0.191 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.179,0.09,0.262 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.203,0.116,0.277 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.205,0.13,0.277 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.524,0.675 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.179,-0.312,-0.059 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.105,-0.235,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.545,0.363,0.727,-0.088,-0.203,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.318,0.683,-0.003,-0.024,0.012 @@ -29,11 +47,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.093,0.041,0.156 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.048,-0.075,0.159 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.05,-0.021,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.093,0.049,0.141 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TFT,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.176,-0.004,0.34 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.12,0.071,0.17 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.121,0.081,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.457,0.66 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.084,-0.151,-0.019 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.015,-0.039,0.006 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.273,0.637,0.081,-0.007,0.168 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.079,-0.009,0.169 @@ -46,11 +64,11 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.087,0.238 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.18 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.127,0.085,0.17 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.166,0.089,0.237 -Chronos-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.243,0.103,0.378 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.191,0.113,0.255 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.127,0.256 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.597,0.518,0.669 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.176,-0.307,-0.056 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.102,-0.236,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.317,0.682,0.003,-0.012,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.085,-0.203,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -63,11 +81,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.162 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.051,-0.073,0.161 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.052,-0.022,0.117 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.095,0.051,0.142 -Toto-2.0-1B,TFT,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.178,0.001,0.334 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.122,0.073,0.171 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.081,0.174 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.461,0.661 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.188,-0.322,-0.068 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.113,-0.245,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.008,-0.019,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.097,-0.213,-0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.01,-0.038,0.007 @@ -80,11 +98,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.086,0.034,0.152 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.041,-0.09,0.156 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.043,-0.029,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.086,0.041,0.137 -Toto-2.0-313m,TFT,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.169,-0.013,0.337 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.113,0.064,0.166 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.114,0.071,0.169 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.455,0.66 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.131,-0.214,-0.058 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.06,-0.121,-0.006 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.04,-0.052,0.124 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.044,-0.088,0.001 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.038,-0.05,0.119 @@ -97,11 +115,11 @@ TS-ICL,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.129,0.059,0.198 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.087,0.031,0.136 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.089,0.046,0.128 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.13,0.065,0.192 -TS-ICL,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.209,0.074,0.335 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.155,0.09,0.212 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.157,0.1,0.213 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.504,0.648 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.121,-0.223,-0.036 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.05,-0.111,-0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.05,-0.055,0.153 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.455,0.272,0.682,-0.034,-0.096,0.014 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.364,0.182,0.591,0.047,-0.055,0.154 @@ -114,11 +132,11 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.138,0.056,0.22 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.095,0.045,0.151 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.097,0.05,0.148 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.138,0.051,0.23 -TiRex-2,TFT,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.217,0.101,0.338 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.163,0.087,0.239 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.165,0.094,0.242 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.502,0.659 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.136,-0.234,-0.058 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.065,-0.147,-0.005 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.036,-0.097,0.152 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.049,-0.12,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.034,-0.102,0.148 @@ -131,11 +149,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.126,0.035,0.216 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.083,0.033,0.126 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.085,0.013,0.147 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.126,0.034,0.218 -TabPFN-TS-3,TFT,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.206,0.052,0.343 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.152,0.062,0.237 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.153,0.07,0.232 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.501,0.645 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.241,-0.374,-0.119 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.163,-0.292,-0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.074,-0.035 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.145,-0.257,-0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.082,-0.033 @@ -148,11 +166,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.045,0.001,0.099 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.002,-0.128,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.636,0.409,0.864,0.0,-0.067,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.045,0.008,0.084 -Toto-2.0-22m,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.133,-0.05,0.3 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.073,0.031,0.116 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.075,0.043,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.435,0.636 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.299,-0.449,-0.172 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.217,-0.349,-0.1 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.102,-0.184,-0.043 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.199,-0.312,-0.095 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.105,-0.194,-0.038 @@ -165,11 +183,11 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.049,-0.166,0.052 TiRex,citras-fm,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.047,-0.112,0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.0,-0.041,0.034 -TiRex,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.092,-0.097,0.252 TiRex,FlowState,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.03,-0.016,0.073 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.032,-0.001,0.06 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.424,0.603 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.239,-0.352,-0.135 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.161,-0.238,-0.084 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.051,-0.19,0.069 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.143,-0.22,-0.074 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.053,-0.192,0.068 @@ -182,11 +200,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.047,-0.055,0.142 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.002,-0.068,0.071 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.047,-0.05,0.144 -TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.134,-0.01,0.264 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.075,-0.027,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.077,-0.014,0.166 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.453,0.615 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.359,-0.144 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.163,-0.235,-0.097 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.053,-0.13,0.021 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.146,-0.205,-0.093 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.055,-0.133,0.021 @@ -199,11 +217,11 @@ citras-fm,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.045,-0.005,0.101 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.002,-0.076,0.064 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.045,-0.008,0.102 -citras-fm,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.132,-0.018,0.274 citras-fm,FlowState,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.073,0.024,0.121 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.075,0.037,0.118 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.451,0.62 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.447,-0.173 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.218,-0.354,-0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.103,-0.165,-0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.2,-0.31,-0.098 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.105,-0.166,-0.054 @@ -216,28 +234,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.0,-0.035,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.049,-0.168,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.047,-0.114,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.091,-0.1,0.251 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.03,-0.007,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.477,0.818,0.031,0.0,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.416,0.61 -TFT,TimesFM-3,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.431,-0.745,-0.182 -TFT,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.213,-0.515,0.004 -TFT,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.32,-0.607,-0.115 -TFT,Toto-2.0-1B,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.217,-0.502,-0.001 -TFT,Toto-2.0-313m,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.204,-0.509,0.013 -TFT,TS-ICL,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.265,-0.505,-0.08 -TFT,TiRex-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.277,-0.509,-0.112 -TFT,TabPFN-TS-3,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.259,-0.523,-0.055 -TFT,Toto-2.0-22m,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.153,-0.428,0.047 -TFT,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.101,-0.338,0.089 -TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.155,-0.359,0.01 -TFT,citras-fm,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.153,-0.376,0.018 -TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.101,-0.336,0.091 -TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TFT,FlowState,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.068,-0.306,0.116 -TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.066,-0.285,0.107 -TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.468,0.359,0.57 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.34,-0.496,-0.202 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.255,-0.383,-0.131 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.136,-0.204,-0.076 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.236,-0.343,-0.128 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.139,-0.207,-0.079 @@ -250,11 +251,11 @@ FlowState,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.031,-0.079,0.015 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.081,-0.195,0.026 FlowState,citras-fm,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.079,-0.138,-0.025 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.03,-0.072,0.007 -FlowState,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.064,-0.132,0.234 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.455,0.818,0.002,-0.046,0.044 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.502,0.393,0.6 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.488,-0.22 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.257,-0.383,-0.149 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.138,-0.208,-0.089 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.344,-0.145 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.211,-0.088 @@ -267,11 +268,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.033,-0.064,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.182,0.591,-0.083,-0.199,0.014 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.081,-0.134,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.523,-0.032,-0.066,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.062,-0.119,0.222 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.341,0.182,0.545,-0.002,-0.046,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.404,0.593 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.688,-2.299,-1.199 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.518,-2.074,-1.101 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.279,-1.944,-0.843 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.48,-2.023,-1.074 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.285,-1.951,-0.856 @@ -284,7 +285,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.068,-1.516,-0.736 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-1.597,-0.828 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.165,-1.635,-0.821 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-1.562,-0.712 -Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.878,-1.324,-0.56 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.006,-1.502,-0.648 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.456,-0.678 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv index fe2a11e111794568ed5357aaf3d327e0a61af0cd..5be57c853feeb4a318ba0aba29dee5d440406fb1 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,84.31372549019609,33.24685454531935,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,83.33333333333334,32.85578001199615,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,75.09803921568626,31.60414865708665,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,74.7058823529412,31.2993373778106,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,73.92156862745102,31.16022690269088,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.94117647058826,31.400325953903085,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,72.94117647058822,31.15599659767092,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,72.54901960784316,30.53253625903064,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.29411764705881,29.90729981120045,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.35294117647058,28.94758895718843,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,60.3921568627451,29.300272925895733,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,53.72549019607842,27.71288007905477,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,53.333333333333336,27.04334068544614,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -LightGBM,52.352941176470594,27.443858197799376,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,51.37254901960785,27.938640079737077,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.98039215686274,27.9233382954572,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,50.78431372549021,27.034786805136346,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,48.23529411764705,24.143041060970617,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,47.25490196078431,26.955049688404376,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,47.058823529411775,23.824664874707867,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,43.33333333333334,23.90713300847127,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.35294117647059,24.96210622300068,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -Drift,37.25490196078431,14.172808114999302,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,33.4313725490196,23.415963966234756,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,33.03921568627451,21.20036359424431,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -DeepAR,26.274509803921564,18.404781101049906,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,19.607843137254896,14.828732811403134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.23529411764705,4.657015240443951,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,17.450980392156858,9.969491749924131,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -TFT,14.705882352941178,7.2631654434387904,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.37254901960784,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,84.62998102466793,33.24685454531935,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.68121442125236,32.85578001199615,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,75.33206831119544,31.2993373778106,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,74.95256166982922,31.60414865708665,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.38330170777989,31.16022690269088,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.43453510436433,31.15599659767092,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.43453510436433,31.400325953903085,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,72.29601518026566,30.53253625903064,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.46489563567364,29.90729981120045,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.239089184060724,28.94758895718843,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,60.341555977229596,29.300272925895733,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,53.510436432637576,27.71288007905477,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,53.130929791271356,27.89484050071992,0.0,0.2250537310119582,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,52.941176470588246,27.04334068544614,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +LightGBM,51.802656546489565,27.443858197799376,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,51.23339658444023,27.938640079737077,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.04364326375712,27.9233382954572,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,50.09487666034155,27.034786805136346,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,47.628083491461105,24.143041060970617,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,47.438330170777995,26.955049688404376,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,46.67931688804555,23.824664874707867,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,43.26375711574953,23.90713300847127,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoTheta,41.935483870967744,24.96210622300068,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +Drift,36.81214421252372,14.172808114999302,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,33.68121442125237,23.415963966234756,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,32.92220113851993,21.20036359424431,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +DeepAR,25.806451612903224,18.404781101049906,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,19.165085388994306,14.828732811403134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Naive,18.026565464895636,4.657015240443951,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,17.07779886148008,9.969491749924131,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +TFT,14.421252371916509,7.2631654434387904,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.195445920303605,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 426ab406b0670df64c0b03106bf9269dd115bc44..34aeb2e2bb3a33630bcdb84da756f0ba986b379d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,89.41176470588236,34.61768806108048,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,85.88235294117649,34.07820864192478,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.41176470588238,32.50619254796663,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.25490196078432,32.19243757821526,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.05882352941178,32.051621507624176,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.68627450980391,31.864956165412174,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,75.29411764705881,31.959072391382303,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.09803921568626,31.736118387059985,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,65.6862745098039,29.756158497560868,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,64.70588235294115,30.6194130690149,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,63.13725490196078,29.636515500753745,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.60784313725489,29.111909362943443,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,58.4313725490196,29.28469175353858,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,56.07843137254901,27.453887143184406,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,52.74509803921569,23.93881415260619,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,49.60784313725489,25.340510079762048,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,49.2156862745098,24.72712551313898,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,49.019607843137244,24.470771774725662,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,45.588235294117645,25.546718735921615,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,45.09803921568627,25.353548156637395,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.11764705882353,22.311614601785536,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoTheta,37.45098039215685,22.773093515453148,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,33.13725490196078,18.95227595931224,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -Drift,27.64705882352941,7.532134770506794,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,21.078431372549016,11.558604544866135,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,20.392156862745097,13.644306827349173,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -TFT,18.137254901960777,6.970181833006062,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,17.450980392156858,13.157433589700718,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,16.07843137254902,9.655963998764527,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.94117647058823,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.549019607843134,-2.4793582422915295,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,89.37381404174573,34.61768806108048,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.14800759013283,34.07820864192478,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.93738140417457,32.50619254796663,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.60910815939279,32.19243757821526,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,77.22960151802656,32.051621507624176,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.33206831119544,31.864956165412174,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,75.33206831119544,31.959072391382303,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.14231499051233,31.736118387059985,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,64.89563567362428,29.756158497560868,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,64.13662239089184,30.6194130690149,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,62.808349146110054,29.636515500753745,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,62.239089184060724,30.033009103721533,0.0,0.2250537310119582,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.01328273244783,29.111909362943443,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,58.06451612903226,29.28469175353858,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,55.21821631878557,27.453887143184406,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,51.992409867172675,23.93881415260619,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,48.95635673624288,25.340510079762048,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,48.57685009487666,24.72712551313898,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,48.007590132827325,24.470771774725662,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.44592030360532,25.546718735921615,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,44.78178368121442,25.353548156637395,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,38.614800759013285,22.311614601785536,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,36.81214421252371,22.773093515453148,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.63757115749525,18.95227595931224,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Drift,27.13472485768501,7.532134770506794,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,20.39848197343454,11.558604544866135,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,19.924098671726753,13.644306827349173,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +TFT,17.741935483870968,6.970181833006062,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,17.077798861480076,13.157433589700718,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,15.749525616698293,9.655963998764527,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.523719165085389,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.144212523719165,-2.4793582422915295,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index faee5a893110f5f4bdd884329cd53a4068b8a9ee..170df3bba89818db587dc876373abe0bb03b0f5f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,84.50980392156865,35.47709683274377,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,82.7450980392157,35.72430481835762,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.64705882352943,32.54976390060501,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.45098039215688,32.33165859671511,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.09803921568628,31.93453427610564,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.60784313725489,31.522233947421352,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,66.4705882352941,31.178074157120616,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.49019607843137,30.081050457081993,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,63.52941176470587,31.77302727530469,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.15686274509803,28.807733540481053,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.764705882352935,31.21110067813505,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.39215686274508,30.765940098594292,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,56.47058823529413,26.27778339285762,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,54.90196078431372,27.447436027254422,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,54.117647058823536,28.748363429468192,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,48.431372549019606,26.31180740104997,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.0392156862745,24.751569683371734,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.470588235294116,28.81554958594127,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,45.49019607843137,20.992246724898678,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,43.529411764705884,24.472736703476706,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,40.196078431372534,23.39157666623001,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.117647058823536,19.902281176879587,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,39.11764705882353,21.777971337308443,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.07843137254901,23.951462230472398,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -Drift,33.725490196078425,12.00859537363812,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.725490196078425,4.816376316650361,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,20.980392156862745,14.69276032297161,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -TFT,20.19607843137255,5.59099536017399,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,19.803921568627445,11.581561029743536,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,17.843137254901954,8.6187097646932,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.90196078431372,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,84.81973434535105,35.47709683274377,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,82.92220113851992,35.72430481835762,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.98861480075901,32.54976390060501,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,77.7988614800759,32.33165859671511,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.14231499051233,31.93453427610564,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,69.8292220113852,31.522233947421352,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,66.41366223908918,31.178074157120616,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.84440227703985,30.081050457081993,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,63.37760910815939,31.77302727530469,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.04933586337761,28.807733540481053,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.48007590132828,31.21110067813505,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.34155597722959,30.765940098594292,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,56.16698292220115,26.27778339285762,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,54.83870967741935,27.447436027254422,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,54.079696394686906,28.748363429468192,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,52.941176470588246,27.08898912117058,0.0,0.2250537310119582,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.19734345351044,26.31180740104997,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,48.007590132827325,24.751569683371734,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoARIMA,46.48956356736243,28.81554958594127,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,44.97153700189753,20.992246724898678,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,43.07400379506642,24.472736703476706,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,39.84819734345351,23.39157666623001,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,38.994307400379505,21.777971337308443,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,38.61480075901329,19.902281176879587,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.86337760910816,23.951462230472398,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +Drift,33.3965844402277,12.00859537363812,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +Naive,23.529411764705884,4.816376316650361,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.683111954459203,14.69276032297161,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +TFT,19.924098671726757,5.59099536017399,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,19.54459203036053,11.581561029743536,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,17.836812144212523,8.6187097646932,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.99051233396584,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv index f4e2240528a52fa946a2eda40fe2620838739ef5..ec5d5da89294231fdf1704f34b96b87b64c91165 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex-2,87.25490196078434,39.37251974458233,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.90196078431374,39.27455132957374,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.25490196078434,36.07056206795182,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,76.86274509803923,35.540112055824814,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.29411764705884,35.622311533639696,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,72.94117647058822,35.59416781126772,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,71.56862745098039,35.31685152461066,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.7843137254902,34.840937302524225,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.07843137254902,35.14923905262079,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,65.88235294117646,34.78764265431883,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.09803921568627,33.1611996370734,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -citras-fm,64.11764705882351,32.7813764944805,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,59.80392156862743,30.905989094188435,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,57.45098039215685,31.993182268159337,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,54.705882352941174,31.49502571678424,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.52941176470587,29.814447214956086,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,50.78431372549021,30.176887641206196,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.764705882352935,27.87011707717124,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,45.294117647058826,25.105068099028372,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,44.803921568627445,25.330398382950904,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoARIMA,43.921568627450974,27.948988222402328,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.88235294117646,22.687211866018643,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,25.490196078431378,16.415472979310586,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 -Drift,22.54901960784313,4.105439375083986,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,22.25490196078431,13.012464361157516,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 -TFT,20.882352941176467,7.687085486183776,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,20.19607843137255,13.410408922172534,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,19.411764705882348,12.170893500780867,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,18.431372549019603,11.214833669530645,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.68627450980392,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.117647058823527,-4.030261072578956,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,87.2865275142315,39.37251974458233,0.0,0.14946631215993433,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.00948766603416,39.27455132957374,0.0,0.7798886548299643,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.03984819734345,36.07056206795182,0.0,5.415773931179775,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.85009487666035,35.540112055824814,0.0,2.381899266853933,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.95256166982922,35.622311533639696,0.0,0.9843368122580645,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,73.2447817836812,35.59416781126772,0.0,0.21001374185393257,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,71.15749525616698,35.31685152461066,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.96774193548387,34.840937302524225,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,65.65464895635674,34.78764265431883,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.46489563567364,35.14923905262079,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.51612903225806,33.1611996370734,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +citras-fm,63.94686907020872,32.7813764944805,0.0,0.17148809094402578,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,61.29032258064516,32.888310249748855,0.0,0.2250537310119582,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,59.20303605313093,30.905989094188435,0.0,192.7145151529112,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,56.9259962049336,31.993182268159337,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,54.079696394686906,31.49502571678424,0.0,0.15222966488764048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,53.32068311195447,29.814447214956086,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,50.28462998102468,30.176887641206196,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,46.01518026565466,27.87011707717124,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,44.212523719165084,25.105068099028372,0.0,0.8517963775703984,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,43.92789373814042,25.330398382950904,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoARIMA,43.64326375711575,27.948988222402328,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.483870967741936,22.687211866018643,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,24.667931688804558,16.415472979310586,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Drift,22.2011385199241,4.105439375083986,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,21.91650853889943,13.012464361157516,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +TFT,20.58823529411765,7.687085486183776,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,19.734345351043643,13.410408922172534,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,18.975332068311197,12.170893500780867,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,18.02656546489564,11.214833669530645,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.559772296015181,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.851992409867176,-4.030261072578956,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv index 7b38514f896893e242aa03441d75a673492026d9..2e99f59da4d2e1f10bb7fdce492305ad20995a1d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,10 +1,10 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.006,-0.013,0.024 -TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.024,-0.007,0.057 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.03,0.005,0.054 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.027,-0.003,0.055 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.028,0.007,0.05 +TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.024,-0.007,0.057 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.03,0.006,0.054 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.039,-0.002,0.087 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.048,0.026,0.075 @@ -13,15 +13,15 @@ TiRex-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.056,0.028,0.089 TiRex-2,LightGBM,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.08,0.041,0.117 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.085,0.044,0.129 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.077,0.043,0.115 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,0.034,0.112 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.074,0.046,0.101 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.128,0.085,0.172 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.233,0.438 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.024,0.013 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.003,0.041 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.025,-0.001,0.054 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.007,0.054 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.023,0.002,0.044 +TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.003,0.041 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.025,0.0,0.052 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.033,-0.011,0.083 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.042,0.016,0.075 @@ -30,32 +30,15 @@ TimesFM-3,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.05,0.024,0.079 TimesFM-3,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.075,0.042,0.11 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.08,0.036,0.122 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.071,0.034,0.114 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.068,0.027,0.111 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.069,0.041,0.1 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.123,0.08,0.162 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.232,0.43 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.025,-0.061,0.007 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.019,-0.043,0.003 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.006,-0.033,0.049 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.037,0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.004,-0.028,0.037 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.032,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.015,-0.023,0.058 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.024,-0.009,0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,0.002,0.08 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.033,0.013,0.053 -Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.057,0.023,0.093 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.02,0.109 -Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.054,0.011,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.051,0.016,0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.064,0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.413 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.031,-0.057,-0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.025,-0.057,0.001 -Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.006,-0.051,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.014,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.028,0.02 +Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.006,-0.051,0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.0,-0.008,0.008 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.027,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.018,-0.006,0.044 @@ -64,15 +47,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.026,-0.005,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.051,-0.005,0.1 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.056,0.027,0.085 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.048,0.023,0.074 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.045,0.001,0.087 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.045,0.021,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.101,0.063,0.141 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.312,0.216,0.412 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.028,-0.058,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.057,0.007 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.044,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.003,-0.008,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.707,0.001,-0.023,0.025 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.044,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.004,-0.005,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.706,0.012,-0.018,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.021,0.0,0.043 @@ -81,15 +64,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.03,0.002,0.058 Toto-2.0-2.5B,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.055,-0.0,0.104 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.06,0.03,0.089 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.051,0.026,0.075 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.048,0.009,0.087 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.049,0.029,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.104,0.064,0.143 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.314,0.218,0.412 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.029,-0.052,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.023,-0.046,-0.002 -Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.004,-0.038,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.02,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.293,0.765,-0.001,-0.026,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.004,-0.038,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.016,0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.011,-0.032,0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.005,0.046 @@ -98,15 +81,32 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.028,0.001,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.053,0.011,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.058,0.013,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.05,0.017,0.085 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.047,-0.001,0.09 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.047,0.03,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.064,0.144 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.212,0.418 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.025,-0.061,0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.019,-0.043,0.003 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.006,-0.033,0.049 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.037,0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.004,-0.028,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.032,0.045 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.015,-0.023,0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.024,-0.009,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,0.002,0.08 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.033,0.013,0.053 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.057,0.023,0.093 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.02,0.109 +Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.054,0.011,0.101 +Stat. Ensemble,t0-beta,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.051,0.011,0.09 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.064,0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.413 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.031,-0.057,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.025,-0.055,-0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.047,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.0,-0.008,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.004,-0.012,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.023,0.016 +Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.047,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.706,0.009,-0.027,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.018,-0.002,0.042 @@ -115,15 +115,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.001,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.051,-0.001,0.099 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.056,0.024,0.089 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.048,0.022,0.075 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.045,0.004,0.084 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.045,0.027,0.063 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.101,0.062,0.141 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.214,0.412 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.095,0.002 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.035,-0.09,0.01 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.016,-0.062,0.023 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.009,-0.051,0.026 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.294,0.824,-0.013,-0.052,0.018 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.011,-0.057,0.031 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.016,-0.062,0.023 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.294,0.824,-0.009,-0.052,0.026 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.022,0.037 @@ -132,15 +132,15 @@ Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.009,0.042 Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.019,0.098 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,0.01,0.084 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.039,0.007,0.068 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.036,0.002,0.066 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,-0.007,0.074 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.054,0.135 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.224,0.397 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.05,-0.081,-0.027 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.044,-0.081,-0.016 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.025,-0.064,0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.018,-0.046,0.005 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.022,-0.045,-0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.049,0.005 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.025,-0.064,0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.018,-0.044,0.002 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.038,0.022 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -149,15 +149,15 @@ TiRex,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.015,0.032 TiRex,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.016,0.075 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.039,0.007,0.081 TiRex,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.03,0.006,0.055 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.027,-0.008,0.062 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.028,0.009,0.047 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.048,0.123 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.402 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.064,-0.13,-0.013 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.058,-0.111,-0.017 -FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.087,-0.002 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.032,-0.084,0.022 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.036,-0.088,0.017 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.034,-0.093,0.016 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.087,-0.002 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.032,-0.087,0.022 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.023,-0.083,0.03 FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.014,-0.075,0.035 @@ -166,15 +166,15 @@ FlowState,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.058,0.037 FlowState,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.034,0.067 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.026,-0.019,0.075 FlowState,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.017,-0.043,0.079 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.033,0.054 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.015,-0.048,0.069 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.735,0.971,0.072,0.028,0.113 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.21,0.371 AutoETS,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.059,-0.097,-0.029 AutoETS,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.053,-0.086,-0.025 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.034,-0.057,-0.013 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.027,-0.063,0.005 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.031,-0.062,-0.002 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.029,-0.058,-0.001 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.034,-0.057,-0.013 AutoETS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.027,-0.061,0.001 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.018,-0.043,0.009 AutoETS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.009,-0.033,0.015 @@ -183,15 +183,15 @@ AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.026,-0.018,0.068 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.031,-0.008,0.074 AutoETS,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.022,-0.01,0.055 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.012,0.046 +AutoETS,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.013,0.049 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,0.039,0.114 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.204,0.392 LightGBM,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.087,-0.132,-0.043 LightGBM,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.081,-0.124,-0.044 -LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.102,-0.023 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.054,-0.111,0.005 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.058,-0.116,0.0 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-22m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.056,-0.105,-0.011 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.102,-0.023 LightGBM,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.054,-0.109,0.001 LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.108,0.018 LightGBM,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.081,0.015 @@ -200,15 +200,15 @@ LightGBM,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.026,-0.073,0.018 LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.061,0.069 LightGBM,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.064,0.06 -LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.007,-0.067,0.045 +LightGBM,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.058,0.046 LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.053,-0.002,0.101 LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.274,0.168,0.383 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.093,-0.149,-0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.087,-0.139,-0.037 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.122,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.06,-0.093,-0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.064,-0.098,-0.03 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.062,-0.112,-0.013 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.122,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.06,-0.098,-0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.091,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.041,-0.088,-0.007 @@ -217,15 +217,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.032,-0.08,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.074,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.051,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.012,-0.056,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.012,-0.06,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,0.009,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.182,0.363 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.083,-0.13,-0.045 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.077,-0.129,-0.036 -citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.057,-0.113,-0.011 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.05,-0.08,-0.024 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.054,-0.081,-0.027 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.052,-0.093,-0.017 +citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.057,-0.113,-0.011 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.05,-0.081,-0.022 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.041,-0.072,-0.007 citras-fm,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.031,-0.058,-0.006 @@ -234,32 +234,32 @@ citras-fm,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.058,0.01 citras-fm,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.064,0.06 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.023,0.049 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.003,-0.054,0.044 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.03,0.022 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.056,0.019,0.094 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.277,0.172,0.384 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.08,-0.127,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.073,-0.124,-0.028 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.054,-0.09,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.047,-0.096,-0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.05,-0.095,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.049,-0.099,0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.047,-0.091,-0.004 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.037,-0.07,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.028,-0.066,0.008 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.014,-0.057,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.019,-0.048,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.007,-0.047,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.012,-0.03,0.053 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.003,-0.046,0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.059,0.011,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.194,0.368 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.08,-0.113,-0.048 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.074,-0.111,-0.043 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.047,-0.072,-0.021 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.072,-0.03 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.05,-0.069,-0.031 +t0-beta,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.054,-0.098,-0.011 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.047,-0.067,-0.027 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.038,-0.08,0.007 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.029,-0.05,-0.009 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.015,-0.074,0.046 +t0-beta,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.052,0.013 +t0-beta,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.048,0.055 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.031,0.057 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.023,0.029 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.058,0.016,0.102 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.279,0.172,0.391 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.147,-0.208,-0.093 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.194,-0.087 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.12,-0.172,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.112,-0.164,-0.067 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.116,-0.166,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.168,-0.068 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.12,-0.172,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.112,-0.164,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.156,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.141,-0.051 @@ -268,15 +268,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.083,-0.129,-0.041 Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.056,-0.112,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.05,-0.093,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.059,-0.104,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.063,-0.113,-0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.062,-0.113,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.234,0.137,0.333 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.78,-0.304 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.755,-0.302 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.703,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.453,-0.701,-0.275 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.458,-0.7,-0.279 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.719,-0.269 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.703,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.702,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.659,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.672,-0.253 @@ -285,6 +285,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.645,-0.256 Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.378,-0.62,-0.202 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.371,-0.571,-0.222 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.383,-0.624,-0.208 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.582,-0.241 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.387,-0.643,-0.208 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.306,-0.5,-0.158 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv index c0fcc291d3c75c172b204a601d627b0ec2da0a6b..d70a0e996b8e90997dd5cfb2c97a056b61283378 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.042,0.016,0.067 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.04,0.021,0.067 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.039,0.018,0.06 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.069,0.022,0.12 -TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.058,0.025,0.09 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.037,0.108 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.075,0.049,0.104 +TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.058,0.025,0.09 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.066,0.037,0.094 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.078,0.038,0.113 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.075,0.049,0.104 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.099,0.058,0.143 -TiRex-2,AutoETS,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.14,0.064,0.261 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.122,0.08,0.165 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.255,0.441 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.008,-0.026,0.013 @@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,0.007,0.06 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.032,0.008,0.062 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.031,0.015,0.048 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.062,0.023,0.106 -TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.05,0.019,0.081 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.063,0.031,0.101 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.047,0.092 +TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.05,0.019,0.081 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.058,0.034,0.082 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.07,0.028,0.111 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.047,0.092 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.091,0.046,0.135 -TimesFM-3,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.133,0.06,0.251 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.115,0.072,0.156 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.251,0.431 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.032,-0.082,0.009 @@ -42,12 +42,12 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.294,0.824,0.011,-0.033,0.049 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.018,0.04 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.008,-0.038,0.055 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.039,-0.007,0.088 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.027,-0.014,0.065 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.041,0.007,0.071 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.046,-0.007,0.098 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.027,-0.014,0.065 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.035,-0.004,0.075 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.048,0.015,0.082 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.046,-0.007,0.098 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.07,0.036,0.102 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.113,0.036,0.23 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.051,0.143 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.249,0.408 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.037,-0.067,-0.006 @@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.007,-0.005,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.019,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.003,-0.021,0.028 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.035,-0.013,0.082 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.023,-0.018,0.059 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.036,0.01,0.06 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.041,0.006,0.077 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.023,-0.018,0.059 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.031,0.007,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.043,0.007,0.077 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.041,0.006,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.065,0.031,0.097 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.109,0.034,0.231 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.131 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.236,0.412 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.039,-0.065,-0.013 @@ -76,12 +76,12 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.007,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.003,-0.018,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.017,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.033,-0.013,0.077 -Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.021,-0.015,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.034,0.011,0.061 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.039,0.01,0.068 +Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.021,-0.015,0.055 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.029,0.01,0.047 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.041,0.008,0.075 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.039,0.01,0.068 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.063,0.027,0.095 -Toto-2.0-313m,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.107,0.032,0.23 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.087,0.049,0.126 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.233,0.411 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.044,-0.071,-0.016 @@ -93,12 +93,12 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.002,-0.026,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.003,-0.026,0.018 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.028,-0.023,0.077 -Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.016,-0.026,0.053 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.03,0.004,0.055 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.035,0.001,0.067 +Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.016,-0.026,0.053 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.024,-0.002,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.037,-0.002,0.076 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.035,0.001,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.024,0.092 -Toto-2.0-1B,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.103,0.023,0.232 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.083,0.042,0.123 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.317,0.226,0.41 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.042,-0.072,-0.021 @@ -110,12 +110,12 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.002,-0.028,0.025 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.001,-0.029,0.023 TiRex,FlowState,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.03,-0.014,0.08 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.02,0.052 TiRex,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.032,0.007,0.058 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.036,0.0,0.069 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.02,0.052 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.026,0.005,0.047 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.039,0.003,0.07 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.036,0.0,0.069 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.061,0.026,0.097 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.104,0.026,0.221 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.047,0.123 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.319,0.231,0.411 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.041,-0.063,-0.018 @@ -127,12 +127,12 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.003,-0.018,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.001,-0.024,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.011,0.077 -Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.019,-0.018,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.033,0.003,0.067 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.038,0.024,0.052 +Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.019,-0.018,0.051 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.028,0.009,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.04,-0.003,0.077 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.038,0.024,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.019,0.103 -Toto-2.0-22m,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.105,0.029,0.23 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.053,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.228,0.412 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.074,-0.137,-0.023 @@ -144,31 +144,14 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.029,-0.083,0.022 FlowState,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.031,-0.087,0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.084,0.011 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.766,-0.012,-0.055,0.019 FlowState,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.002,-0.054,0.063 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.007,-0.05,0.051 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.766,-0.012,-0.055,0.019 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.061,0.047 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.009,-0.038,0.05 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.007,-0.05,0.051 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.032,-0.018,0.082 -FlowState,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.076,-0.016,0.209 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.559,0.912,0.057,0.011,0.098 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.225,0.369 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.061,-0.099,-0.026 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.052,-0.088,-0.019 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.028,-0.07,0.014 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.023,-0.063,0.017 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.021,-0.058,0.014 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.016,-0.056,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.018,-0.055,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.02,-0.054,0.018 -Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.412,0.234,0.647,0.012,-0.02,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.014,-0.029,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.019,-0.019,0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.007,0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,0.004,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.088,0.015,0.204 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.068,0.028,0.108 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.225,0.392 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.121,-0.039 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.067,-0.112,-0.032 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.043,-0.076,-0.007 @@ -178,31 +161,48 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.031,-0.058,-0.004 citras-fm,TiRex,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.033,-0.062,-0.007 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.034,-0.072,-0.003 citras-fm,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.002,-0.067,0.051 -citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.014,-0.07,0.028 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.005,-0.041,0.045 +citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.014,-0.07,0.028 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.006,-0.033,0.019 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.042,0.049 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.005,-0.041,0.045 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.03,0.005,0.059 -citras-fm,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.075,-0.009,0.196 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.055,0.015,0.094 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.296,0.205,0.391 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.082,-0.117,-0.051 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.101,-0.05 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.048,-0.108,0.007 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.043,-0.084,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.073,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.036,-0.072,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.038,-0.074,-0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.039,-0.055,-0.024 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.007,-0.054,0.048 -Toto-2.0-4m,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.019,-0.063,0.019 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.005,-0.047,0.039 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.054,0.049 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.025,-0.029,0.078 -Toto-2.0-4m,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,-0.015,0.202 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,0.01,0.091 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.293,0.193,0.395 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.061,-0.099,-0.026 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.052,-0.088,-0.019 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.028,-0.07,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.023,-0.063,0.017 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.021,-0.058,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.016,-0.056,0.025 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.018,-0.055,0.02 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.02,-0.054,0.018 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.412,0.234,0.647,0.012,-0.02,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.014,-0.029,0.065 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.008,-0.035,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.007,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.019,-0.019,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,0.004,0.088 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.068,0.028,0.108 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.225,0.392 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.07,-0.104,-0.039 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.061,-0.09,-0.035 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.037,-0.081,0.004 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.032,-0.054,-0.008 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.03,-0.049,-0.01 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.025,-0.051,0.002 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.027,-0.049,-0.005 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.028,-0.05,-0.009 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.049,0.058 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.019,0.032 +t0-beta,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.008,-0.055,0.034 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.013,-0.033,0.053 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.011,-0.017,0.035 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.036,-0.005,0.076 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.06,0.018,0.104 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.204,0.399 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.084,-0.128,-0.04 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.075,-0.125,-0.028 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.05,-0.089,-0.015 @@ -212,14 +212,31 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.038,-0.082,0.002 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.04,-0.076,-0.003 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.042,-0.084,0.003 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.009,-0.052,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.049,0.007 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.051,0.04 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.051,0.051 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.049,0.007 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.056,0.032 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.051,0.051 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.023,-0.014,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.068,-0.009,0.195 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.048,0.004,0.089 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.214,0.373 +Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.082,-0.117,-0.051 +Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.101,-0.05 +Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.048,-0.108,0.007 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.043,-0.084,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.073,-0.011 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.036,-0.072,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.038,-0.074,-0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.039,-0.055,-0.024 +Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.007,-0.054,0.048 +Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.005,-0.047,0.039 +Toto-2.0-4m,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.019,-0.063,0.019 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.011,-0.036,0.016 +Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.054,0.049 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.025,-0.029,0.078 +Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,0.01,0.091 +Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.293,0.193,0.395 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.11,-0.167,-0.062 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.1,-0.156,-0.049 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.075,-0.114,-0.038 @@ -229,31 +246,14 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.063,-0.101,-0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.065,-0.107,-0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.115,-0.019 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.033,-0.089,0.017 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.096,-0.004 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.031,-0.063,-0.005 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.026,-0.085,0.028 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.096,-0.004 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.037,-0.082,0.005 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.023,-0.065,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.026,-0.085,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.046,-0.046,0.181 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.026,-0.013,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.275,0.193,0.356 -AutoETS,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.163,-0.354,-0.069 -AutoETS,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.154,-0.334,-0.064 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.127,-0.299,-0.038 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.122,-0.3,-0.035 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.119,-0.299,-0.033 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.114,-0.302,-0.024 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.116,-0.284,-0.026 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.118,-0.299,-0.03 -AutoETS,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.083,-0.264,0.016 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.096,-0.256,-0.016 -AutoETS,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.081,-0.244,0.009 -AutoETS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.076,-0.253,0.014 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.073,-0.242,0.009 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.048,-0.22,0.044 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.022,-0.206,0.069 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.239,0.062,0.359 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.139,-0.197,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.129,-0.184,-0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.166,-0.054 @@ -263,12 +263,12 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.091,-0.14,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.14,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.137,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.235,0.088,0.441,-0.06,-0.108,-0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.073,-0.121,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.058,-0.104,-0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.053,-0.101,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.073,-0.121,-0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.064,-0.116,-0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.05,-0.097,-0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.053,-0.101,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.026,-0.071,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.021,-0.074,0.171 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.255,0.166,0.347 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.789,-0.341 @@ -280,11 +280,11 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.465,-0.695,-0.292 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.468,-0.697,-0.301 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.701,-0.296 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.585,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.645,-0.29 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.421,-0.643,-0.258 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.414,-0.653,-0.24 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.645,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.664,-0.256 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.594,-0.272 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.414,-0.653,-0.24 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.378,-0.553,-0.239 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.315,-0.56,-0.066 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.343,-0.531,-0.199 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv index 4cd6a7990286af37bb3f0caf6aef8b8ea7f11ba9..af9feef4e04a27279927b6e6c2ff480943648d04 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.049,0.047 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.052,-0.004,0.108 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.059,0.002,0.122 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.052,-0.004,0.108 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.058,0.004,0.113 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.07,0.03,0.116 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.013,0.107 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.012,0.118 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.07,0.03,0.116 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.065,0.007,0.12 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.07,0.008,0.121 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.093,0.04,0.149 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.098,0.045,0.159 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.123,0.04,0.207 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.037,0.158 TiRex-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.109,0.049,0.164 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.115,0.064,0.169 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.089,0.228 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.285,0.491 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.05,0.047 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,-0.002,0.124 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.058,0.001,0.14 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,-0.002,0.124 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.057,0.009,0.122 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.068,0.02,0.129 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.057,0.023,0.093 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,0.009,0.13 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.068,0.02,0.129 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.064,0.013,0.113 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.069,0.028,0.11 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.091,0.033,0.164 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.097,0.035,0.174 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.121,0.042,0.201 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.095,0.045,0.158 TimesFM-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.107,0.057,0.164 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.114,0.076,0.153 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.158,0.099,0.222 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.291,0.485 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.054,-0.121,0.004 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.053,-0.142,0.002 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.008,-0.009,0.029 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.766,0.007,-0.007,0.02 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.007,-0.045,0.051 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.023,0.044 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.011,0.052 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.014,-0.073,0.08 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.02,-0.08,0.089 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.044,0.003,0.08 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.049,0.017,0.078 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.007,0.149 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.06,-0.036,0.147 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.067,0.006,0.123 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.114,0.058,0.168 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.361,0.248,0.47 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.063,-0.139,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.061,-0.163,-0.001 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.008,-0.03,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.008,-0.03,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.001,-0.027,0.019 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.028,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.001,-0.07,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.003,-0.04,0.044 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.028,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.094,0.083 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.111,0.091 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.036,-0.01,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.041,0.012,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.025,0.149 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.04,0.002,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.052,-0.063,0.146 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.059,-0.015,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.106,0.045,0.165 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.355,0.235,0.47 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.054,-0.121,0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.053,-0.142,0.002 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.008,-0.009,0.029 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.766,0.007,-0.007,0.02 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.011,0.052 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.007,-0.045,0.051 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.023,0.044 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.014,-0.073,0.08 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.02,-0.08,0.089 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.044,0.003,0.08 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.049,0.017,0.078 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.007,0.149 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.047,0.018,0.079 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.06,-0.036,0.147 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.114,0.058,0.168 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.361,0.248,0.47 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.062,-0.128,-0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.06,-0.139,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.234,0.647,-0.007,-0.02,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.001,-0.02,0.026 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.234,0.647,-0.007,-0.02,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.019,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.0,-0.045,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.032,0.04 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.019,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.075,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.013,-0.083,0.082 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,-0.007,0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.042,0.013,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.068,-0.008,0.138 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,0.017,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.053,-0.042,0.139 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.107,0.061,0.157 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.356,0.246,0.463 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.075,-0.132,-0.031 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.073,-0.148,-0.021 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.049,0.027 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.019,-0.055,0.011 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.046,0.019 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.012,-0.052,0.025 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.049,0.033 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.005,-0.092,0.065 +TiRex,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.001,-0.089,0.064 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.025,-0.013,0.059 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.003,0.066 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.057,-0.037,0.144 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.029,0.001,0.06 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.042,-0.043,0.121 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.145 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.233,0.457 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.062,-0.119,-0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.061,-0.103,-0.024 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.007,-0.053,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.001,-0.049,0.066 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.007,-0.053,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.0,-0.037,0.043 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.025,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.054,0.056 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.025,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.007,-0.063,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.012,-0.051,0.068 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.036,-0.024,0.093 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.042,-0.005,0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.068,-0.014,0.147 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.04,0.013,0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.053,-0.02,0.127 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.06,0.042,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.066,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.356,0.246,0.461 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.134,-0.012 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.149,-0.009 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.012,-0.045,0.022 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.003,-0.047,0.039 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.012,-0.045,0.022 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.005,-0.041,0.031 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.034,0.046 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.059,0.051 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.034,0.046 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.066 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.008,-0.084,0.073 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.002,0.067 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.038,0.002,0.073 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.064,-0.011,0.131 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.036,-0.005,0.083 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.049,-0.039,0.124 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.056,-0.009,0.12 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.039,0.168 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.247,0.456 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.075,-0.132,-0.031 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.073,-0.148,-0.021 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.019,-0.055,0.011 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.049,0.027 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.046,0.019 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.012,-0.052,0.025 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.049,0.033 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.005,-0.092,0.065 -TiRex,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.001,-0.089,0.064 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.025,-0.013,0.059 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.003,0.066 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.057,-0.037,0.144 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.042,-0.043,0.121 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.049,-0.003,0.095 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.145 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.233,0.457 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.07,-0.136,-0.007 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.068,-0.127,-0.013 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.014,-0.087,0.068 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.091,0.086 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.014,-0.087,0.068 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.081,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.005,-0.07,0.084 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.007,-0.079,0.059 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.07,0.074 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.005,-0.07,0.084 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.006,-0.059,0.073 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.03,-0.048,0.117 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.035,-0.051,0.127 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.061,0.01,0.125 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.034,-0.043,0.111 TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.046,-0.015,0.109 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.053,-0.022,0.123 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.101,0.009,0.188 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.26,0.438 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.076,-0.138,-0.008 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.074,-0.123,-0.028 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.02,-0.098,0.074 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.1,0.1 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.02,-0.098,0.074 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.013,-0.09,0.077 +FlowState,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.001,-0.068,0.082 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.073,0.049 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.008,-0.079,0.078 -FlowState,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.001,-0.068,0.082 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.006,-0.079,0.056 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.024,-0.05,0.115 FlowState,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.03,-0.044,0.128 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.056,-0.042,0.154 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.047,0.114 FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.014,0.089 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.048,-0.012,0.106 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.912,0.096,0.017,0.178 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.348,0.238,0.44 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.102,-0.175,-0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.101,-0.196,-0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.046,-0.087,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.037,-0.083,0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.046,-0.087,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.038,-0.079,0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.026,-0.063,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.038,-0.103,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.072,0.002 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.026,-0.063,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.031,-0.133,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.025,-0.13,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.032,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.064,0.117 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.042,0.054 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.083,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.024,-0.047,0.093 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.073,0.017,0.133 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.332,0.221,0.436 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.109,-0.188,-0.047 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.107,-0.211,-0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.051,-0.085,-0.017 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.043,-0.075,-0.012 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.051,-0.085,-0.017 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.044,-0.078,-0.013 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.071,0.003 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.044,-0.112,0.005 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.039,-0.079,-0.002 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.071,0.003 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.037,-0.146,0.048 citras-fm,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.031,-0.147,0.043 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.039,0.031 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.027,-0.072,0.114 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.044,0.037 citras-fm,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.101,0.097 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.019,-0.058,0.078 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.068,0.007,0.125 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.328,0.208,0.441 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.14,-0.262,-0.042 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.138,-0.252,-0.044 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.175,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.072,-0.175,0.025 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.175,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.073,-0.16,0.008 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.168,0.036 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.073,-0.173,0.014 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.068,-0.151,0.011 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.168,0.036 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.065,-0.143,-0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.06,-0.183,0.041 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.034,-0.132,0.06 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.028,-0.129,0.067 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.03,-0.118,0.056 TabPFN-TS-3,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.016,-0.128,0.074 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.105,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.06,0.142 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.23,0.392 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.107,-0.188,-0.039 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.105,-0.187,-0.048 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.041,-0.082,-0.002 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.05,-0.086,-0.019 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.072,-0.017 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.03,-0.064,-0.001 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.042,-0.084,-0.013 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.038,-0.09,0.005 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.035,-0.125,0.041 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.128,0.045 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.057,0.04 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.038,0.043 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.059,0.106 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.013,-0.085,0.108 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.07,0.029,0.108 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.329,0.216,0.445 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.122,-0.196,-0.051 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.12,-0.197,-0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.064,-0.172,0.035 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-1B,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.055,-0.171,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.064,-0.172,0.035 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.056,-0.162,0.04 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.044,-0.138,0.041 Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.056,-0.146,0.02 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.141,0.037 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.044,-0.138,0.041 Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.049,-0.122,0.015 Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.098,0.014 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.017,-0.102,0.077 Stat. Ensemble,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.107,0.092 Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.016,-0.08,0.114 +Stat. Ensemble,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.122,0.079 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-2.0-4m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.078,0.086 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.038,0.142 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.228,0.405 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.13,-0.204,-0.069 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.128,-0.18,-0.083 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.072,-0.141,-0.006 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.063,-0.134,0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.064,-0.125,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.064,-0.086,-0.044 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.059,-0.136,0.009 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.051,-0.105,0.003 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.056,-0.14,0.022 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.05,-0.119,0.012 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.025,-0.103,0.045 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.019,-0.085,0.055 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.091,0.095 -Toto-2.0-4m,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.094,0.072 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.05,0.008,0.096 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.315,0.192,0.425 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.295,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.188,-0.285,-0.11 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.128,-0.202,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.119,-0.198,-0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.128,-0.202,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.12,-0.186,-0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.107,-0.17,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.12,-0.175,-0.071 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.201,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.107,-0.17,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.112,-0.232,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.294,0.088,0.529,-0.106,-0.216,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.079,-0.154,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.073,-0.142,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.165,0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.075,-0.121,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.166,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.053,-0.106,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.279,0.156,0.396 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.965,-0.399 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.647,-0.942,-0.41 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.564,-0.886,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.551,-0.887,-0.308 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.564,-0.886,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.553,-0.862,-0.326 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.842,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.553,-0.857,-0.327 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.546,-0.839,-0.328 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.842,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.542,-0.779,-0.351 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.533,-0.786,-0.313 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.496,-0.772,-0.283 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.488,-0.79,-0.263 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.643,-0.299 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.49,-0.802,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.681,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.46,-0.739,-0.238 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.386,-0.655,-0.185 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 36a09745d11c825484d849bd51086f783bf16cda..dcf83454be8a5ea7f12d6efbd1a4dcd2063f3852 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,93.19444444444443,39.183559063188014,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,91.24999999999999,38.8114540766655,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,88.75,38.16300748820032,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,86.38888888888889,38.10204244077327,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,80.41666666666667,36.266061350746384,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.27777777777777,36.60567701819309,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.75,34.33193126564797,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,70.55555555555556,33.551460846942774,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.86111111111111,33.448620260897975,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.02777777777776,33.08143140787951,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,63.33333333333333,32.091914021126556,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TS-ICL,59.72222222222222,31.90791761419598,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,54.44444444444445,25.746635712407915,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.81944444444443,30.491645543587975,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,50.69444444444445,28.78402737487018,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,48.19444444444444,27.612436655172846,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,47.013888888888886,26.492402046161224,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,44.58333333333332,25.556775293313972,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.30555555555555,27.748907584948345,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TFT,44.166666666666664,27.53144334233102,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,43.68055555555556,26.772635713296424,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,36.31944444444443,22.20671232134833,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -CatBoost,35.69444444444444,21.287573524478255,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,27.361111111111114,15.414025929198116,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,21.66666666666667,7.513921637274034,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoARIMA,18.888888888888893,7.687751653596642,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoTheta,17.77777777777778,5.8706991513412525,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,13.26388888888889,-9.418472917749977,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,13.263888888888886,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.277777777777779,-29.011796894601318,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.0555555555555554,-38.472959211654675,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,92.87634408602152,39.183559063188014,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,91.12903225806451,38.8114540766655,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,88.30645161290323,38.16300748820032,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.88709677419355,38.10204244077327,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,79.9731182795699,36.266061350746384,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.43548387096774,36.60567701819309,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,76.20967741935483,36.093874568467655,0.0,4.521803010272157,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.11827956989248,34.33193126564797,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,69.62365591397848,33.551460846942774,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,68.81720430107528,33.448620260897975,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.5,33.08143140787951,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,62.23118279569891,32.091914021126556,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,58.198924731182785,31.90791761419598,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,53.2258064516129,25.746635712407915,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.48655913978495,30.491645543587975,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,49.46236559139785,28.78402737487018,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,46.63978494623656,27.612436655172846,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.766129032258064,26.492402046161224,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,43.54838709677419,25.556775293313972,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.145161290322584,27.748907584948345,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TFT,43.145161290322584,27.53144334233102,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,42.6747311827957,26.772635713296424,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.28225806451613,22.20671232134833,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,34.67741935483871,21.287573524478255,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.61290322580645,15.414025929198116,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,20.967741935483872,7.513921637274034,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoARIMA,18.27956989247312,7.687751653596642,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,17.204301075268816,5.8706991513412525,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,12.836021505376344,-9.418472917749977,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,12.83602150537634,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.946236559139784,-29.011796894601318,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.9569892473118276,-38.472959211654675,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 871068a99eeb4c7b04dab381f5ecb61462162f68..bfec711b5a5d9264c0f56fa9adedff63c9be5097 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,92.91666666666667,58.26022624502954,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,92.50000000000001,58.05945381980986,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,90.13888888888889,57.694692238950076,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,86.25,57.21227788523926,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,82.91666666666667,56.07677943690712,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.11111111111113,56.381305085766286,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.75000000000001,54.0349203442283,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,72.6388888888889,53.83602437369355,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,72.08333333333333,53.642114861828674,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.38888888888889,52.710892944466025,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.55555555555556,53.090548120238765,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TS-ICL,63.055555555555564,52.92655979852465,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,56.388888888888886,51.42887909288382,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,55.41666666666667,47.894556376520924,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.81944444444444,50.17769220777839,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -TFT,48.194444444444436,48.04926998698471,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,46.59722222222221,47.5861909531335,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,46.388888888888886,47.716360523829216,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,45.55555555555555,47.148822968097335,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,42.56944444444445,46.3687172213469,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.694444444444436,46.75728672813329,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -DeepAR,38.958333333333336,42.297561992708474,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -CatBoost,25.555555555555546,33.304508592545844,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,22.36111111111111,25.693557606338423,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Stat. Ensemble,20.138888888888886,13.462321560207968,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -LightGBM,19.86111111111111,28.327668712071517,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.819444444444443,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,12.916666666666664,-8.679221746369192,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,12.430555555555554,-57.991659118752125,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Naive,7.361111111111112,-93.34435531340436,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.6666666666666667,-103.16658810164463,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,92.4731182795699,58.26022624502954,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,92.06989247311829,58.05945381980986,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,89.91935483870968,57.694692238950076,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.75268817204302,57.21227788523926,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,82.25806451612904,56.07677943690712,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.51075268817203,56.381305085766286,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.68817204301077,55.94091660566616,0.0,4.521803010272157,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.11827956989248,54.0349203442283,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,71.63978494623656,53.83602437369355,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,70.96774193548387,53.642114861828674,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.05376344086022,52.710892944466025,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.11290322580645,53.090548120238765,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.155913978494624,52.92655979852465,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,55.107526881720425,51.42887909288382,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,54.03225806451613,47.894556376520924,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.21774193548387,50.17769220777839,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TFT,47.04301075268817,48.04926998698471,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,45.49731182795699,47.5861909531335,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,44.892473118279575,47.716360523829216,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.22043010752687,47.148822968097335,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,41.196236559139784,46.3687172213469,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.516129032258064,46.75728672813329,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +DeepAR,37.83602150537635,42.297561992708474,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,24.73118279569892,33.304508592545844,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,21.63978494623656,25.693557606338423,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Stat. Ensemble,19.489247311827956,13.462321560207968,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +LightGBM,19.22043010752688,28.327668712071517,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.373655913978494,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,12.5,-8.679221746369192,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,12.029569892473118,-57.991659118752125,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,7.123655913978497,-93.34435531340436,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.6129032258064515,-103.16658810164463,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 34863b3777433e31349e4626836f99d61db89cb5..4743ddbdbeaa428eaa3c8f7069f198c25c0b70bd 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,92.77777777777777,45.65995688364923,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,90.83333333333333,45.06460970149967,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,90.1388888888889,45.55974656679499,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.72222222222224,45.288033434231025,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,81.80555555555554,42.97216097736414,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.58333333333333,43.79122178581662,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.30555555555557,40.85224967676806,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,69.02777777777779,39.68225936476553,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,65.83333333333333,39.40840456902303,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.72222222222221,39.029589747603886,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,63.05555555555554,38.49953279056998,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TS-ICL,60.27777777777777,38.64525989181372,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.194444444444436,38.66602272763363,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.40277777777778,37.40214888898979,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,52.222222222222236,38.50913493451501,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,48.88888888888889,35.78350248618084,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,45.972222222222214,33.84989334671079,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,45.347222222222214,32.82212486071341,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,44.93055555555555,33.69441154871544,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -TFT,44.30555555555556,33.527958313386776,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.472222222222214,34.275371767381245,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -CatBoost,34.86111111111111,26.34923331647584,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,33.95833333333333,26.36531412454334,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -LightGBM,28.472222222222214,17.747983840024006,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,21.11111111111111,15.889952173949517,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoTheta,16.38888888888889,14.492192597027309,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,16.25,10.502318217695771,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Naive,14.861111111111116,0.5343175629566765,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,13.819444444444443,0.5636978963068806,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,10.347222222222221,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.111111111111112,-9.202826024430877,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,92.74193548387096,45.65995688364923,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,90.7258064516129,45.06460970149967,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,90.05376344086021,45.55974656679499,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.81182795698923,45.288033434231025,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,81.72043010752688,42.97216097736414,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.8978494623656,43.79122178581662,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.79032258064517,40.85224967676806,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +t0-beta,72.98387096774194,42.176809925296745,0.0,4.521803010272157,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,68.68279569892472,39.68225936476553,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,64.78494623655915,39.40840456902303,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.306451612903224,39.029589747603886,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,62.096774193548384,38.49953279056998,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,58.73655913978494,38.64525989181372,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,56.85483870967742,38.66602272763363,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.08333333333333,37.40214888898979,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,51.075268817204304,38.50913493451501,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,47.44623655913979,35.78350248618084,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.892473118279575,33.84989334671079,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,44.153225806451616,32.82212486071341,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,43.88440860215054,33.69441154871544,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +TFT,43.27956989247312,33.527958313386776,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.473118279569896,34.275371767381245,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +CatBoost,33.87096774193548,26.34923331647584,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.997311827956985,26.36531412454334,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +LightGBM,27.688172043010756,17.747983840024006,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,20.43010752688172,15.889952173949517,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,15.86021505376344,14.492192597027309,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,15.725806451612904,10.502318217695771,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Naive,14.516129032258066,0.5343175629566765,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,13.373655913978494,0.5636978963068806,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,10.013440860215054,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.048387096774194,-9.202826024430877,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 472b6b6481bf1681fc5501cc7e68e0ee9a0c4356..6339131f0e2feb630afd68ad4bcd539ffc0ebb9e 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,93.75000000000001,62.35366377965899,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,92.08333333333336,61.98715528742673,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,91.94444444444444,62.207924215015574,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.30555555555557,61.60131089913937,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,84.02777777777779,60.505612486857196,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.41666666666667,60.60556777464069,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.05555555555556,58.16102029426382,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,70.83333333333334,57.61998947703675,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,70.0,57.57281921937886,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,64.99999999999999,56.54552025188988,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.86111111111111,56.946495507781194,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TS-ICL,63.055555555555564,57.124975138443034,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.1388888888889,56.961361441445455,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,57.08333333333333,56.97075952369879,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.652777777777764,55.077070569034035,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 -PatchTST,48.26388888888889,52.787031601443545,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,48.194444444444436,53.416195276344624,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 -TFT,47.77777777777778,52.21806546035845,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,45.27777777777778,51.42017852560466,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,41.59722222222222,50.660333860069414,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.58333333333333,51.22975425878349,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -DeepAR,38.26388888888888,45.60839564429823,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 -CatBoost,27.77777777777778,37.05382262022947,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.444444444444443,29.7027005718165,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,21.52777777777778,27.710478818867024,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 -Stat. Ensemble,18.47222222222222,14.65088802933251,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 -AutoTheta,12.777777777777777,-2.544644522411743,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.29166666666667,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,10.069444444444445,-58.59006093370929,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 -Naive,6.38888888888889,-70.46841685766732,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.083333333333333,-79.144175508834,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,93.68279569892474,62.35366377965899,0.0,2.466042572241336,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,92.20430107526883,61.98715528742673,0.0,1.0287665867857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,91.80107526881721,62.207924215015574,0.0,5.2229363491817695,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.54301075268816,61.60131089913937,0.0,10.094451361704877,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,84.00537634408603,60.505612486857196,0.0,0.20119827167874393,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.56989247311829,60.60556777464069,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,74.46236559139786,59.80441441955744,0.0,4.521803010272157,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.44623655913979,58.16102029426382,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,70.0268817204301,57.61998947703675,0.0,0.16318737995341615,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,69.08602150537634,57.57281921937886,0.0,0.25031342818069136,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.70967741935484,56.54552025188988,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.44086021505375,56.946495507781194,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.29032258064516,57.124975138443034,0.0,3.3554644721210938,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,58.87096774193549,56.961361441445455,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,55.64516129032258,56.97075952369879,0.0,469.67140080949105,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.15860215053764,55.077070569034035,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +PatchTST,47.11021505376343,52.787031601443545,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +TFT,46.63978494623656,52.21806546035845,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,46.63978494623656,53.416195276344624,0.0,2.3104035928338638,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,43.95161290322581,51.42017852560466,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,40.38978494623656,50.660333860069414,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,38.5752688172043,51.22975425878349,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +DeepAR,37.29838709677419,45.60839564429823,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,26.88172043010753,37.05382262022947,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.65591397849462,29.7027005718165,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,20.833333333333336,27.710478818867024,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Stat. Ensemble,17.876344086021504,14.65088802933251,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,12.36559139784946,-2.544644522411743,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.895161290322582,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,9.74462365591398,-58.59006093370929,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,6.182795698924731,-70.46841685766732,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.0161290322580645,-79.144175508834,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index a3198e468a4d00b200856a95564d7d49fd173dab..d77443f0e6d1da430846fe72d4a7043856b389bb 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.017,0.006,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.017,-0.031,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.046,0.026,0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.041,0.014,0.067 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.048,0.03,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.074,0.045,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.085,0.052,0.123 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.086,0.054,0.122 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.091,0.064,0.122 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.104,0.071,0.14 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.079,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.181,0.084,0.285 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.079,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.088,0.164 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.146,0.078,0.216 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.121,0.23 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.332,0.463 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.006,-0.016,0.004 @@ -22,15 +22,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.01,-0.001,0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.011,-0.032,0.047 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.04,0.02,0.062 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.035,0.01,0.059 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.043,0.024,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.068,0.04,0.099 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.079,0.047,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.081,0.048,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.086,0.06,0.116 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.099,0.064,0.137 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.07,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.176,0.083,0.277 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.07,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.12,0.081,0.161 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.141,0.079,0.208 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.117,0.222 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.329,0.461 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.017,-0.029,-0.006 @@ -39,15 +39,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.001,-0.052,0.039 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.03,0.017,0.045 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.025,-0.007,0.051 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.032,0.013,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.058,0.031,0.087 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.069,0.042,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.042,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.076,0.052,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.089,0.061,0.119 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.067,0.117 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.167,0.07,0.27 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.092,0.067,0.117 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.11,0.075,0.147 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.132,0.063,0.202 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.159,0.107,0.214 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.319,0.455 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.333,0.125,0.5,-0.018,-0.059,0.03 @@ -56,15 +56,15 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.001,-0.04,0.049 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.292,0.668,0.029,-0.014,0.083 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.024,-0.005,0.056 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.031,-0.0,0.072 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.057,0.018,0.111 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.068,0.028,0.123 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.07,0.022,0.129 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.075,0.043,0.114 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.089,0.043,0.148 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.091,0.043,0.155 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.166,0.079,0.274 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.091,0.043,0.155 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.109,0.057,0.17 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.131,0.078,0.193 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.158,0.092,0.225 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.322,0.454 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.048,-0.073,-0.027 @@ -73,15 +73,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.031,-0.047,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.332,0.708,-0.03,-0.09,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.005,-0.041,0.023 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.003,-0.023,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.029,0.006,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.041,0.018,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.042,0.017,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.048,0.016,0.081 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.061,0.035,0.09 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.064,0.037,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.142,0.048,0.239 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.064,0.037,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.083,0.052,0.115 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.105,0.035,0.169 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.133,0.083,0.183 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.363,0.297,0.439 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.042,-0.072,-0.014 @@ -90,32 +90,49 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.025,-0.053,0.007 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.024,-0.059,0.005 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.005,-0.024,0.039 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.008,-0.013,0.032 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.035,0.0,0.072 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.046,0.011,0.086 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.047,0.015,0.085 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.053,0.021,0.086 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.033,0.106 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.069,0.03,0.116 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.146,0.06,0.245 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.069,0.03,0.116 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.088,0.052,0.13 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.11,0.055,0.172 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.187 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.309,0.438 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.051,-0.075,-0.031 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.044,-0.07,-0.025 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.033,-0.057,-0.014 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.032,-0.077,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.003,-0.028,0.022 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.008,-0.033,0.013 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.027,-0.004,0.059 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.375,0.751,0.038,0.006,0.073 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.04,0.006,0.076 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.045,0.023,0.068 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.059,0.026,0.094 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.139,0.049,0.243 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.034,0.094 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.081,0.048,0.115 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.131,0.078,0.182 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.304,0.431 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.08,-0.118,-0.047 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.073,-0.11,-0.042 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.062,-0.095,-0.032 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.061,-0.125,-0.018 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.03,-0.054,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.036,-0.077,-0.0 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.028,-0.062,0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.012,-0.003,0.026 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.013,-0.019,0.041 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.019,-0.021,0.056 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.033,0.004,0.058 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.036,0.001,0.075 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.116,0.018,0.22 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.036,0.001,0.075 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.055,0.017,0.09 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.078,0.011,0.146 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.107,0.053,0.155 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.284,0.416 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.093,-0.14,-0.055 @@ -124,15 +141,15 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.075,-0.112,-0.044 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.074,-0.14,-0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.048,-0.094,-0.011 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.417,0.249,0.625,-0.04,-0.079,-0.006 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.5,-0.012,-0.027,0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.002,-0.031,0.023 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.007,-0.035,0.045 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.021,-0.008,0.045 -Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.024,-0.017,0.065 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.105,0.01,0.206 +Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.024,-0.017,0.065 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.044,0.006,0.077 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.067,0.003,0.131 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.096,0.048,0.141 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.336,0.275,0.407 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.094,-0.139,-0.057 @@ -141,15 +158,15 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.076,-0.113,-0.044 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.075,-0.148,-0.023 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.044,-0.071,-0.018 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.05,-0.093,-0.015 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.041,-0.083,-0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.013,-0.042,0.019 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.002,-0.024,0.03 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.005,-0.036,0.042 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.02,0.005,0.034 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.023,-0.017,0.059 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.708,0.541,0.875,0.104,0.011,0.198 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.023,-0.017,0.059 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.043,0.022,0.062 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.065,-0.005,0.132 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.095,0.054,0.134 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.334,0.274,0.41 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.1,-0.139,-0.068 @@ -158,15 +175,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.082,-0.116,-0.054 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.081,-0.129,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.05,-0.089,-0.016 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.056,-0.094,-0.021 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.047,-0.073,-0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.019,-0.059,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.007,-0.047,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.006,-0.044,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.562,0.354,0.751,0.015,-0.02,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.017,-0.017,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.099,0.001,0.213 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.017,-0.017,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.037,-0.005,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.06,-0.012,0.136 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.09,0.038,0.144 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.331,0.27,0.404 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.117,-0.162,-0.076 @@ -175,100 +192,83 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.098,-0.136,-0.066 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.097,-0.174,-0.044 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.065,-0.098,-0.036 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.119,-0.034 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.063,-0.103,-0.027 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.034,-0.062,-0.004 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.022,-0.047,0.008 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.035,-0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.249,0.646,-0.015,-0.053,0.019 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.003,-0.03,0.037 TiRex,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,0.085,-0.012,0.19 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.003,-0.03,0.037 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.023,0.001,0.046 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.046,-0.032,0.121 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.076,0.031,0.122 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.261,0.394 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.158,-0.086 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.113,-0.158,-0.075 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.133,-0.071 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.1,-0.184,-0.045 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.068,-0.099,-0.038 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.074,-0.132,-0.03 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.037,-0.081,-0.001 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.025,-0.07,0.017 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.023,-0.063,0.017 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.018,-0.056,0.017 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.003,-0.038,0.029 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.083,-0.025,0.201 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.017,0.055 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.044,-0.049,0.127 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.074,0.01,0.133 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.319,0.25,0.398 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.221,-0.399,-0.092 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.214,-0.383,-0.091 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.201,-0.369,-0.076 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.2,-0.377,-0.085 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.165,-0.314,-0.05 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.171,-0.324,-0.064 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.162,-0.321,-0.051 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.131,-0.283,-0.018 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.117,-0.26,-0.01 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.459,-0.116,-0.247,-0.011 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.11,-0.271,-0.001 FlowState,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,-0.093,-0.235,0.012 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.09,-0.251,0.024 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.09,-0.251,0.024 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.438,0.25,0.626,-0.068,-0.198,0.028 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.043,-0.132,0.028 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.104,0.066 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.257,0.136,0.352 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.158,-0.086 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.113,-0.158,-0.075 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.101,-0.133,-0.071 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.1,-0.184,-0.045 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.068,-0.099,-0.038 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.074,-0.132,-0.03 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.066,-0.103,-0.036 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.037,-0.081,-0.001 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.025,-0.07,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.023,-0.063,0.017 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.018,-0.056,0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.003,-0.038,0.029 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.083,-0.025,0.201 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.017,0.055 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.074,0.01,0.133 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.319,0.25,0.398 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.143,-0.197,-0.097 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.136,-0.192,-0.088 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.124,-0.172,-0.081 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.123,-0.205,-0.061 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.091,-0.13,-0.055 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.096,-0.149,-0.055 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.088,-0.13,-0.05 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.058,-0.098,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.046,-0.083,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.044,-0.066,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.039,-0.085,0.005 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.021,-0.058,0.017 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.562,0.374,0.75,0.064,-0.028,0.165 +Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.021,-0.058,0.017 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.024,-0.053,0.092 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.054,0.016,0.096 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.305,0.241,0.381 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.171,-0.276,-0.085 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.164,-0.262,-0.085 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.152,-0.252,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.151,-0.24,-0.085 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.117,-0.204,-0.036 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.123,-0.208,-0.058 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.084,-0.171,-0.011 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.072,-0.151,-0.003 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.07,-0.153,0.005 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.064,-0.157,0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.049,-0.137,0.031 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.046,-0.146,0.047 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.041,-0.028,0.116 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.025,-0.102,0.05 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.031,-0.036,0.103 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.288,0.196,0.377 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.299,-0.137 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.286,-0.132 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.189,-0.272,-0.12 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.188,-0.29,-0.101 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.153,-0.224,-0.09 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.16,-0.229,-0.098 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.15,-0.223,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.119,-0.184,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.106,-0.164,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.105,-0.154,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.098,-0.168,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.082,-0.138,-0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.08,-0.153,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.07,0.094 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.08,-0.153,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.032,-0.115,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.265,0.197,0.334 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-0.862,-0.498 @@ -277,14 +277,14 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.835,-0.469 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.83,-0.475 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.569,-0.782,-0.422 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.781,-0.448 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.757,-0.436 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.713,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.505,-0.688,-0.38 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.503,-0.695,-0.378 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.494,-0.677,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.473,-0.65,-0.354 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.469,-0.661,-0.333 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.347,-0.544,-0.157 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.469,-0.661,-0.333 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.439,-0.616,-0.317 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.404,-0.606,-0.243 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.36,-0.502,-0.245 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index c9c6e907602bd73adc12bfcb8fe99243c777a6d0..706a5e52351886c29ee58727ca919a590e187f9b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.013,0.004,0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.024,-0.023,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.05,0.028,0.075 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.043,0.018,0.068 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.053,0.032,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.092,0.057,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.1,0.062,0.142 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.077,0.148 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.083,0.148 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.199,0.104,0.301 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.141,0.085,0.194 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.162,0.114,0.212 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.17,0.279 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.479,0.687 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.458,0.833,-0.005,-0.015,0.004 @@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.009,-0.001,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.02,-0.022,0.057 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.045,0.024,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.038,0.015,0.06 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.048,0.027,0.072 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.088,0.055,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.091,0.056,0.132 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.095,0.058,0.139 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.073,0.144 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.076,0.148 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.195,0.103,0.295 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.137,0.087,0.184 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.158,0.11,0.209 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.166,0.273 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.475,0.686 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.014,-0.024,-0.004 @@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.011,-0.039,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.037,0.02,0.056 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.03,0.003,0.054 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.04,0.019,0.063 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.08,0.049,0.109 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.084,0.052,0.119 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.087,0.055,0.124 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.098,0.066,0.135 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.074,0.133 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.188,0.094,0.29 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.129,0.076,0.179 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.151,0.106,0.198 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.16,0.265 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.472,0.684 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.333,0.125,0.5,-0.025,-0.07,0.022 @@ -56,6 +56,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.011,-0.052,0.038 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.026,-0.018,0.08 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.019,-0.014,0.053 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.029,-0.001,0.066 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.069,0.023,0.127 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.073,0.03,0.133 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.077,0.024,0.143 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.088,0.051,0.13 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.091,0.041,0.16 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.179,0.093,0.283 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.119,0.083,0.158 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.141,0.081,0.213 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.202,0.138,0.268 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.465,0.675 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.052,-0.081,-0.028 @@ -73,6 +73,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.038,-0.059,-0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.027,-0.087,0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.583,0.416,0.792,-0.007,-0.04,0.021 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.003,-0.029,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.044,0.022,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.049,0.027,0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.053,0.024,0.081 @@ -81,7 +82,6 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.064,0.025,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.067,0.041,0.095 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.157,0.065,0.256 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.096,0.038,0.145 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.118,0.08,0.16 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.181,0.131,0.23 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.448,0.671 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.045,-0.073,-0.018 @@ -90,6 +90,7 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.031,-0.057,-0.003 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.019,-0.056,0.014 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.208,0.584,0.007,-0.022,0.039 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.01,-0.011,0.033 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.051,0.013,0.092 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.055,0.017,0.1 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.059,0.023,0.102 @@ -98,15 +99,32 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.07,0.031,0.113 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.033,0.122 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.076,0.256 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.102,0.06,0.144 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.077,0.179 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.137,0.239 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.457,0.67 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.056,-0.082,-0.033 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.051,-0.078,-0.028 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.041,-0.067,-0.02 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.03,-0.071,0.001 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.003,-0.032,0.028 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.01,-0.034,0.011 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.458,0.25,0.625,0.041,0.006,0.079 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.375,0.751,0.046,0.011,0.087 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.625,0.417,0.793,0.05,0.012,0.092 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.068,0.031,0.11 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.061,0.032,0.09 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.064,0.034,0.103 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.154,0.064,0.257 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.093,0.045,0.139 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.125,0.232 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.456,0.664 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.101,-0.143,-0.061 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.096,-0.137,-0.058 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.087,-0.122,-0.051 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.074,-0.145,-0.024 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.046,-0.071,-0.023 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.054,-0.101,-0.013 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.542,0.375,0.75,-0.043,-0.086,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.004,-0.019,0.024 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.008,-0.028,0.039 @@ -115,7 +133,6 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.022,0.06 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.024,-0.011,0.06 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.118,0.021,0.219 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.054,-0.009,0.105 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.077,0.038,0.115 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.143,0.096,0.189 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.422,0.655 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.106,-0.159,-0.063 @@ -124,6 +141,7 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.091,-0.135,-0.055 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.079,-0.153,-0.031 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.051,-0.078,-0.028 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.058,-0.111,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.417,0.249,0.625,-0.048,-0.095,-0.011 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.004,-0.025,0.019 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.004,-0.028,0.027 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.016,-0.033,0.06 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.019,-0.018,0.056 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.114,0.015,0.214 Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.05,-0.012,0.097 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.111 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.139,0.091,0.183 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.421,0.652 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.111,-0.166,-0.067 @@ -141,6 +158,7 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.096,-0.142,-0.058 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.083,-0.167,-0.025 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.055,-0.089,-0.024 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.063,-0.114,-0.023 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.375,0.207,0.583,-0.052,-0.102,-0.013 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.009,-0.04,0.028 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.004,-0.027,0.028 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.012,-0.037,0.053 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.708,0.541,0.875,0.015,-0.022,0.047 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.11,0.018,0.203 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.046,-0.024,0.103 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.07,0.046,0.094 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.1,0.17 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.421,0.648 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.133,-0.186,-0.087 @@ -158,6 +175,7 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.118,-0.165,-0.078 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.19,-0.046 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.077,-0.113,-0.044 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.084,-0.144,-0.04 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.073,-0.124,-0.032 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.001 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.024,-0.055,0.009 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.04,0.001 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.008,-0.052,0.03 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.005,-0.036,0.025 TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.416,0.792,0.092,-0.007,0.199 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.048,0.091 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.051,0.022,0.082 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.158 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.41,0.643 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.124,-0.174,-0.083 @@ -175,6 +192,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.109,-0.156,-0.071 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.096,-0.15,-0.054 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.068,-0.119,-0.026 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.065,-0.099,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.021,-0.064,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.016,-0.064,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.012,-0.056,0.036 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.003,-0.035,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.1,0.007,0.211 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.034,-0.029,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.058,0.01,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.125,0.072,0.178 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.422,0.639 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.174,-0.091 @@ -192,6 +209,7 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.113,-0.154,-0.079 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.1,-0.19,-0.043 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.072,-0.105,-0.043 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.079,-0.139,-0.034 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.068,-0.115,-0.035 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.024,-0.064,0.011 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.02,-0.06,0.018 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.459,-0.015,-0.05,0.021 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.003,-0.046,0.034 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.097,-0.01,0.212 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.031,-0.053,0.097 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.055,0.013,0.092 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.07,0.174 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.411,0.642 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.248,-0.431,-0.116 @@ -209,6 +226,7 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.232,-0.409,-0.103 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.218,-0.395,-0.103 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.186,-0.343,-0.07 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.344,-0.083 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.346,-0.068 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.134,-0.281,-0.021 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.129,-0.272,-0.016 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.124,-0.254,-0.019 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.111,-0.267,-0.007 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.107,-0.269,0.01 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.073,-0.193,0.014 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.479,0.292,0.667,-0.046,-0.171,0.056 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.028,-0.069,0.11 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.479,0.348,0.605 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.164,-0.24,-0.093 @@ -226,6 +243,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.148,-0.217,-0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.135,-0.187,-0.09 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.106,-0.17,-0.04 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.114,-0.168,-0.064 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.102,-0.162,-0.047 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.057,-0.117,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.052,-0.108,0.011 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.048,-0.115,0.024 @@ -234,32 +252,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.035,-0.101,0.028 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.032,-0.108,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.068,-0.014,0.162 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.025,-0.042,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.094,0.03,0.162 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.391,0.638 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.194,-0.27,-0.129 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.188,-0.264,-0.123 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.178,-0.247,-0.119 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.164,-0.27,-0.088 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.134,-0.191,-0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.142,-0.219,-0.084 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.084,-0.131,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.079,-0.125,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.075,-0.104,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.054,-0.09,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.123,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.058,-0.101,-0.013 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,0.044,-0.059,0.146 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.026,-0.108,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.071,0.037,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.382,0.622 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.386,-0.205 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.361,-0.19 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.253,-0.366,-0.161 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.221,-0.298,-0.15 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.314,-0.158 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.303,-0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.167,-0.233,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.162,-0.223,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.205,-0.111 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.143,-0.217,-0.078 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.21,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.029,-0.124,0.065 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.104,-0.193,-0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.076,-0.125,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.464,0.336,0.589 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.396,-2.196,-0.92 @@ -277,6 +277,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.364,-2.166,-0.893 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-2.08,-0.871 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.277,-2.039,-0.811 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.293,-2.033,-0.842 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.27,-1.972,-0.839 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.176,-1.896,-0.731 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.166,-1.877,-0.727 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.157,-1.844,-0.728 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.771,-0.729 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-1.79,-0.698 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.919,-1.533,-0.535 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.762,-0.641 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.007,-1.647,-0.618 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.865,-1.431,-0.507 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index a497d2ef7a5ecac35d128a150d75c8293ef22c16..1566d26ba22ad2123b026a311742a0df3ff69496 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.007,-0.088,0.075 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.047,0.016,0.081 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.033,-0.011,0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.081,0.041,0.13 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.06,0.041,0.082 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.099,0.055,0.152 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.103,0.058,0.162 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.071,0.157 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.116,0.072,0.172 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.114,0.035,0.194 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.114,0.06,0.167 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.132,0.089,0.184 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.116,0.028,0.19 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.134,0.256 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.379,0.536 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.002,-0.018,0.016 @@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.005,-0.074,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.045,0.013,0.091 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.031,-0.002,0.066 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.08,0.035,0.14 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.059,0.036,0.087 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.097,0.049,0.158 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.17 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.107,0.066,0.154 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.115,0.062,0.183 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.112,0.045,0.192 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.055,0.176 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.13,0.076,0.194 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.115,0.038,0.177 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.19,0.128,0.259 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.374,0.538 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.011,-0.027,0.003 @@ -40,6 +40,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.708,0.542,0.875,-0.004,-0.108,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.037,0.016,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.023,-0.029,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.071,0.04,0.108 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.05,0.034,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.089,0.052,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.057,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.099,0.068,0.138 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.107,0.069,0.153 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.104,0.022,0.188 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.105,0.058,0.149 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.082,0.168 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.107,0.014,0.178 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.131,0.244 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.375,0.527 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.007,-0.081,0.081 @@ -57,6 +57,7 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.167,0.542,0.041,-0.037,0.146 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.708,0.541,0.875,0.027,-0.014,0.075 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.075,0.003,0.184 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.054,-0.009,0.137 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.093,0.024,0.195 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.097,0.016,0.208 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.103,0.041,0.188 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.11,0.03,0.225 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.108,0.045,0.179 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.108,0.027,0.215 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.126,0.039,0.238 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.11,0.076,0.139 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.186,0.094,0.291 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.365,0.546 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.049,-0.088,-0.016 @@ -74,6 +74,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.625,0.458,0.833,-0.042,-0.171,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.625,0.458,0.792,-0.015,-0.09,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.036,0.015,0.059 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.014,-0.018,0.041 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.055,0.024,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.059,0.023,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.065,0.025,0.111 @@ -81,7 +82,6 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.073,0.036,0.114 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.07,-0.029,0.166 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.071,0.035,0.103 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.089,0.046,0.13 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.073,-0.034,0.147 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.151,0.101,0.208 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.357,0.506 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.034,-0.077,0.011 @@ -91,6 +91,7 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.292,0.125,0.459,-0.027,-0.082,0.014 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.208,0.542,0.014,-0.04,0.083 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.05,-0.007,0.128 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.028,-0.01,0.075 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.068,0.01,0.143 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.072,0.014,0.154 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.078,0.031,0.134 @@ -98,7 +99,6 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.032,0.169 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.084,0.027,0.154 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.084,0.018,0.163 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.102,0.045,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.086,0.029,0.139 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.093,0.245 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.356,0.517 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.088,-0.15,-0.043 @@ -108,6 +108,7 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.081,-0.225,-0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.037,-0.063,-0.015 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.052,-0.147,0.007 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.583,0.417,0.751,-0.023,-0.077,0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.019,0.004,0.037 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.024,-0.012,0.052 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.729,0.542,0.875,0.03,-0.017,0.075 @@ -115,9 +116,25 @@ Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.038,0.005,0.07 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.036,-0.086,0.136 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.036,-0.003,0.073 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.055,0.014,0.094 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.038,-0.085,0.115 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.12,0.063,0.18 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.332,0.489 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.064,-0.089,-0.043 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.062,-0.095,-0.037 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.074,-0.036 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.057,-0.158,0.009 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.014,-0.043,0.018 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.029,-0.081,0.01 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.249,0.583,0.022,-0.019,0.072 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.041,-0.005,0.092 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.046,0.005,0.098 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.052,0.024,0.087 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.06,0.019,0.111 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.057,-0.019,0.137 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.058,0.01,0.103 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.076,0.034,0.123 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.139,0.085,0.2 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.422,0.347,0.499 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.11,-0.179,-0.058 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.108,-0.188,-0.051 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.098,-0.151,-0.055 @@ -125,6 +142,7 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.251,-0.102,-0.242,-0.025 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.058,-0.099,-0.025 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.073,-0.167,-0.01 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.038,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.043,-0.101,0.005 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.005,-0.042,0.035 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.011,-0.037,0.054 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.019,-0.023,0.054 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.017,-0.106,0.119 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.017,-0.03,0.06 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.036,-0.014,0.078 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.019,-0.104,0.095 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.102,0.037,0.17 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.32,0.479 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.115,-0.193,-0.062 @@ -142,6 +159,7 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.107,-0.262,-0.017 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.062,-0.108,-0.023 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.078,-0.182,-0.015 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.024,-0.054,0.012 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.048,-0.109,-0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.005,-0.036,0.041 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.417,0.793,0.006,-0.04,0.046 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.015,0.001,0.031 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.625,0.457,0.792,0.012,-0.117,0.119 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.012,-0.039,0.053 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.032,-0.002,0.063 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.015,-0.134,0.108 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.098,0.046,0.158 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.471 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.186,-0.077 @@ -159,6 +176,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.114,-0.232,-0.043 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.069,-0.124,-0.026 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.085,-0.155,-0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.125,0.458,-0.031,-0.081,0.017 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.054,-0.096,-0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.011,-0.057,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.375,0.207,0.583,-0.006,-0.049,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.037,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.006,-0.091,0.095 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.006,-0.057,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.032,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.008,-0.102,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.092,0.041,0.148 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.39,0.31,0.47 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.132,-0.208,-0.078 @@ -176,6 +193,7 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.124,-0.29,-0.031 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.078,-0.128,-0.037 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.203,-0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.04,-0.075,-0.005 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.064,-0.125,-0.019 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.02,-0.058,0.022 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.015,-0.032,-0.001 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.056,0.035 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.003,-0.132,0.098 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.667,0.458,0.833,-0.002,-0.062,0.04 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.018,-0.01,0.044 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,-0.0,-0.154,0.093 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.085,0.033,0.141 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.308,0.467 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.129,-0.241,-0.037 @@ -193,6 +210,7 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.121,-0.218,-0.047 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.076,-0.198,0.028 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.091,-0.182,-0.028 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.037,-0.157,0.079 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.061,-0.159,0.019 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.017,-0.135,0.096 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.375,0.208,0.543,-0.012,-0.135,0.105 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.006,-0.105,0.084 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ FlowState,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.003,-0.108,0.117 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.0,-0.116,0.105 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.604,0.396,0.792,0.02,-0.079,0.129 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.003,-0.1,0.08 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.087,0.003,0.184 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.298,0.473 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.129,-0.201,-0.063 @@ -210,6 +227,7 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.121,-0.274,-0.028 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.076,-0.115,-0.037 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.092,-0.194,-0.019 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.037,-0.079,0.003 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.061,-0.115,-0.01 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.017,-0.064,0.029 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.013,-0.056,0.037 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.006,-0.06,0.054 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ TS-ICL,TiRex,0.333,0.167,0.542,0.002,-0.042,0.059 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.0,-0.118,0.104 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.02,-0.033,0.072 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.002,-0.117,0.076 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.087,0.035,0.146 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.319,0.461 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.152,-0.225,-0.097 @@ -227,6 +244,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.144,-0.313,-0.041 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.098,-0.149,-0.048 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.114,-0.218,-0.047 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.058,-0.104,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.083,-0.14,-0.035 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.038,-0.085,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.033,-0.068,0.002 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.081,0.031 @@ -234,26 +252,8 @@ Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.018,-0.046,0.01 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.604,-0.021,-0.149,0.073 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.02,-0.078,0.032 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.018,-0.167,0.083 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.542,0.854,0.068,0.018,0.135 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.374,0.293,0.452 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.132,-0.234,-0.028 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.13,-0.215,-0.04 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.119,-0.216,-0.015 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.124,-0.161,-0.082 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.078,-0.173,0.033 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.094,-0.162,-0.029 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.04,-0.13,0.078 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.019,-0.105,0.095 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.015,-0.121,0.118 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.009,-0.088,0.093 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.417,0.0,-0.103,0.134 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.003,-0.087,0.091 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.002,-0.082,0.105 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.018,-0.09,0.143 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.085,-0.016,0.201 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.294,0.483 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.344,-0.154 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.234,-0.349,-0.147 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.322,-0.151 @@ -261,6 +261,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.228,-0.411,-0.104 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.178,-0.262,-0.112 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.324,-0.102 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.136,-0.219,-0.067 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.162,-0.25,-0.093 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.114,-0.205,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.109,-0.188,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.102,-0.173,-0.042 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.092,-0.165,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.095,-0.225,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.095,-0.172,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.146,0.458,-0.073,-0.156,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.092,-0.252,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.255,0.4 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.84,-1.156,-0.61 @@ -278,6 +278,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.828,-1.201,-0.574 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.024,-0.555 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.072,-0.552 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-0.958,-0.498 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.729,-0.996,-0.533 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-0.919,-0.471 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.891,-0.464 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.64,-0.885,-0.449 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.875,-0.445 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.63,-0.899,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.857,-0.467 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.597,-0.825,-0.415 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.935,-0.416 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.667,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index d72f92da451d424a83b37c907eb9f9448ccc7a0a..d46d2fa8b62e46b092c8b1dc7d9e208dc645650d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.004,-0.011,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.01,-0.008,0.03 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.004,-0.011,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.02,-0.062,0.084 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.047,0.018,0.079 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.044,0.005,0.078 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.063,0.044,0.086 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.1,0.058,0.156 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.062,0.174 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.062,0.18 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.126,0.081,0.178 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.084,0.199 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.068,0.183 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.046,0.208 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.068,0.183 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.125,0.042,0.201 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.162,0.112,0.226 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.181,0.299 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.537,0.702 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.004,-0.017,0.01 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.458,0.834,0.006,-0.018,0.038 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.016,-0.058,0.075 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.043,0.01,0.087 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.041,0.011,0.071 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.162 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.178 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.109,0.051,0.189 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.075,0.178 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.13,0.073,0.206 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.119,0.062,0.188 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.05,0.204 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.122,0.049,0.19 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.159,0.101,0.23 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.175,0.301 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.622,0.534,0.703 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.01,-0.031,0.008 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.166,0.542,-0.006,-0.039,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.166,0.542,-0.006,-0.039,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.01,-0.085,0.076 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.038,0.02,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.035,-0.019,0.073 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.054,0.034,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.056,0.134 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.059,0.153 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.104,0.06,0.159 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.164 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.08,0.182 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.073,0.159 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.026,0.202 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.113,0.073,0.159 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.117,0.027,0.192 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.154,0.109,0.207 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.178,0.286 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.531,0.699 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.004,-0.017,0.01 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.458,0.834,0.006,-0.018,0.038 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.016,-0.058,0.075 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.043,0.01,0.087 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.041,0.011,0.071 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.06,0.037,0.086 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.162 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.178 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.109,0.051,0.189 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.122,0.075,0.178 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.13,0.073,0.206 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.05,0.204 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.119,0.062,0.188 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.122,0.049,0.19 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.175,0.301 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.622,0.534,0.703 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.02,-0.092,0.059 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.016,-0.081,0.055 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.01,-0.083,0.079 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.016,-0.081,0.055 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.028,-0.047,0.128 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.025,-0.017,0.073 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.045,-0.014,0.12 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.082,0.005,0.191 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.094,0.023,0.198 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.095,0.01,0.211 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.108,0.047,0.195 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.116,0.032,0.233 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.104,0.022,0.215 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.108,0.048,0.181 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.104,0.022,0.215 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.108,0.076,0.137 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.145,0.056,0.261 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.222,0.135,0.324 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.521,0.708 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.049,-0.086,-0.018 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.045,-0.095,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.039,-0.062,-0.021 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.045,-0.095,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.029,-0.146,0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.625,0.458,0.792,-0.003,-0.074,0.048 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.017,-0.019,0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.056,0.031,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.068,0.035,0.105 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.069,0.025,0.118 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.083,0.043,0.13 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.091,0.048,0.142 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.079,0.041,0.115 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.082,-0.017,0.174 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.079,0.041,0.115 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.082,-0.02,0.159 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.121,0.073,0.169 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.2,0.148,0.254 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.513,0.689 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.046,-0.085,-0.005 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.042,-0.077,-0.011 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.036,-0.079,0.019 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.042,-0.077,-0.011 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.026,-0.078,0.017 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.208,0.542,0.003,-0.05,0.069 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.02,-0.017,0.063 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.058,-0.002,0.141 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.07,0.005,0.154 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.071,0.011,0.162 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.032,0.149 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.035,0.184 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.081,0.012,0.171 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.024,0.159 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.081,0.012,0.171 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.084,0.02,0.144 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Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.028,-0.109,0.115 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.069,0.029,0.107 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.152,0.099,0.209 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.484,0.667 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.211,-0.066 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.121,-0.216,-0.056 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.18,-0.063 +Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.121,-0.216,-0.056 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.104,-0.248,-0.024 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.073,-0.118,-0.036 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.076,-0.182,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.054,-0.125,0.001 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.013,-0.036,0.005 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.001,-0.046,0.032 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.016,-0.033,0.059 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.025,-0.02,0.06 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TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.015,-0.034,0.057 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.024,0.005,0.043 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.01,-0.038,0.047 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.667,0.499,0.875,0.014,-0.129,0.124 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.01,-0.038,0.047 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.014,-0.149,0.117 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.056,0.025,0.086 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.14,0.093,0.192 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.477,0.663 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.144,-0.216,-0.088 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.216,-0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.196,-0.085 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.216,-0.081 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.121,-0.243,-0.049 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.09,-0.149,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.093,-0.175,-0.033 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.071,-0.119,-0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.029,-0.083,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.016,-0.062,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.015,-0.06,0.033 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.041,0.061 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.004,-0.067,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.646,0.458,0.833,-0.0,-0.105,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.004,-0.067,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.667,0.458,0.833,-0.001,-0.121,0.082 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.042,-0.014,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.078,0.178 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.569,0.475,0.66 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.249,-0.091 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.15,-0.26,-0.079 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.222,-0.087 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.15,-0.26,-0.079 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.132,-0.304,-0.034 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.1,-0.165,-0.05 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.103,-0.226,-0.036 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.081,-0.164,-0.028 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.039,-0.073,-0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.025,-0.064,0.019 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.024,-0.045,-0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.065,0.04 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.014,-0.072,0.03 TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.156,0.1 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.014,-0.072,0.03 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.708,0.5,0.875,-0.01,-0.178,0.095 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.033,0.003,0.064 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.119,0.072,0.172 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.466,0.651 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.225,-0.073 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.134,-0.232,-0.066 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.128,-0.189,-0.079 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.273,-0.023 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.086,-0.129,-0.043 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.088,-0.207,-0.012 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.025,-0.064,0.018 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.012,-0.057,0.036 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.011,-0.05,0.037 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.004,-0.048,0.063 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.013,-0.031,0.067 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.004,-0.128,0.116 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.004,-0.133,0.09 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.046,-0.002,0.093 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.131,0.086,0.184 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.479,0.658 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.262,-0.048 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.139,-0.256,-0.052 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.254,-0.027 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.139,-0.256,-0.052 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.121,-0.221,-0.051 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.09,-0.211,0.017 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.093,-0.189,-0.025 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.071,-0.173,0.011 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.029,-0.152,0.092 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.016,-0.14,0.107 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.333,0.125,0.501,-0.014,-0.141,0.114 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.354,0.167,0.542,0.0,-0.101,0.095 FlowState,TiRex,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.112,0.135 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.004,-0.132,0.113 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.004,-0.132,0.113 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.0,-0.106,0.08 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.042,-0.064,0.16 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.128,0.039,0.23 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.476,0.66 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.139,-0.225,-0.073 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.128,-0.189,-0.079 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.134,-0.232,-0.066 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.273,-0.023 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.086,-0.129,-0.043 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.088,-0.207,-0.012 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.067,-0.137,-0.014 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.025,-0.064,0.018 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.012,-0.057,0.036 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.011,-0.05,0.037 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.004,-0.048,0.063 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.013,-0.031,0.067 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.004,-0.128,0.116 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.004,-0.133,0.09 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.131,0.086,0.184 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.479,0.658 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.143,-0.251,-0.044 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.251,-0.139,-0.234,-0.052 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.132,-0.237,-0.028 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.125,0.0,0.251,-0.139,-0.234,-0.052 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.121,-0.158,-0.082 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.09,-0.189,0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.092,-0.168,-0.02 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.07,-0.159,0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.028,-0.13,0.099 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.015,-0.109,0.105 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.014,-0.133,0.129 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.167,0.542,0.001,-0.089,0.108 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.5,0.01,-0.105,0.151 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.004,-0.099,0.117 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.0,-0.087,0.096 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.004,-0.099,0.117 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.042,-0.075,0.177 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.128,0.022,0.246 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.462,0.674 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.193,-0.292,-0.126 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.189,-0.299,-0.112 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.182,-0.262,-0.122 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.17,-0.353,-0.059 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.137,-0.204,-0.079 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.14,-0.27,-0.061 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.074,-0.12,-0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.06,-0.113,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.059,-0.094,-0.026 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.043,-0.104,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.034,-0.068,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.048,-0.102,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.044,-0.19,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.044,-0.215,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.792,0.958,0.09,0.044,0.153 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.426,-0.221 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.432,-0.212 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.4,-0.216 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.432,-0.212 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.285,-0.48,-0.156 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.249,-0.34,-0.174 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.4,-0.15 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.227,-0.327,-0.148 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.179,-0.264,-0.11 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.164,-0.25,-0.091 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.163,-0.237,-0.102 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.25,-0.146,-0.216,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.135,-0.208,-0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.151,-0.226,-0.094 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.146,-0.298,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.151,-0.226,-0.094 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.147,-0.327,-0.023 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.042,0.208,-0.098,-0.181,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.401,0.604 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.656,-2.361,-1.16 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.646,-2.368,-1.145 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.325,-1.132 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.646,-2.368,-1.145 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.604,-2.428,-1.087 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.532,-2.216,-1.054 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.538,-2.236,-1.07 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.488,-2.139,-1.043 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.004,-0.94 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.36,-1.972,-0.914 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.357,-1.967,-0.912 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.904 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.867,-0.874 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.922,-0.921 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.909 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.922,-0.921 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.324,-2.072,-0.858 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.784,-0.822 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.526,-0.668 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 747359d39f27824b6caa68c5f1c39db429e2b357..f03852e3d1f6774e08f3d8142dbe0ffc01e3a2b0 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,79.01960784313727,31.481794532616647,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,78.43137254901963,31.925312616048963,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,72.94117647058826,26.888347680019187,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,71.76470588235297,29.30238904127842,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.37254901960787,26.529000829572613,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.84313725490198,29.02842238953067,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.88235294117649,31.327236702620056,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.09803921568628,26.2613718955641,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,63.52941176470589,27.59393641404799,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,62.15686274509805,25.889827140254518,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,61.568627450980394,23.254765824716216,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,60.7843137254902,22.984208182264997,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,60.0,22.637076808066325,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,58.23529411764705,22.328859024649184,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,53.92156862745098,24.789294465195354,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.86274509803923,22.50810792219715,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -CatBoost,46.66666666666667,19.060503607694656,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,46.078431372549026,19.424419840917306,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,45.882352941176464,22.08813691407505,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.70588235294118,15.365349853640797,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,44.117647058823536,20.323639513575344,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,39.019607843137265,11.575817377996056,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.647058823529406,19.73153058692736,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -TFT,32.549019607843135,11.478442698254343,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,29.80392156862744,9.328552794565127,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.431372549019603,7.8038443922430645,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.235294117647054,3.6737220568101803,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -Naive,26.078431372549023,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,26.078431372549023,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,18.4313725490196,6.623132074170468,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.862745098039213,-1.4487951659928555,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.74762808349148,31.481794532616647,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,78.36812144212524,31.925312616048963,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,72.48576850094877,26.888347680019187,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,71.157495256167,29.834480422896103,0.0,0.39731692910815275,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.15749525616698,29.30238904127842,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.77798861480076,26.529000829572613,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.98292220113852,29.02842238953067,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.84440227703985,31.327236702620056,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.51612903225806,26.2613718955641,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.808349146110054,27.59393641404799,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,61.48007590132827,25.889827140254518,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,60.53130929791271,23.254765824716216,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,59.772296015180274,22.984208182264997,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,59.01328273244783,22.637076808066325,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.115749525616685,22.328859024649184,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.75142314990512,24.789294465195354,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.110056925996204,19.060503607694656,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,45.730550284629985,22.50810792219715,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +LightGBM,45.54079696394687,19.424419840917306,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,44.78178368121442,22.08813691407505,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,44.022770398481974,15.365349853640797,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,42.88425047438331,20.323639513575344,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,38.51992409867172,11.575817377996056,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.00189753320684,19.73153058692736,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,32.06831119544592,11.478442698254343,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,28.842504743833018,9.328552794565127,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.89373814041746,3.6737220568101803,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,27.514231499051235,7.8038443922430645,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,25.616698292220114,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Naive,25.616698292220114,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,17.836812144212523,6.623132074170468,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,16.508538899430743,-1.4487951659928555,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index e0afdb0036b8dd38572de68078597a503a23053b..b272aa4eb570da6b114317f10bfc323cb511085a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.3137254901961,43.084958270862664,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,82.7450980392157,43.21512052106865,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.05882352941178,39.405460726883256,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex-2,76.07843137254903,41.299866988194935,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,71.96078431372551,38.664211906090074,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,71.96078431372548,38.52365982502688,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.00000000000004,42.35612034793553,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.82352941176474,41.160694873508554,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,68.23529411764707,38.692030967773526,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,66.27450980392156,39.17636203783326,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,64.31372549019608,35.32909998910938,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,64.31372549019606,36.05068561273137,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,63.13725490196078,35.636340061546576,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.176470588235276,37.895505694084896,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,58.823529411764696,35.349544776717664,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.960784313725505,34.96939098084367,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.176470588235304,33.821929615033476,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.803921568627445,34.85996673088817,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.52941176470589,26.73938300302533,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,37.25490196078432,-34.43610797176,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -TFT,36.470588235294116,22.621784862461645,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.31372549019607,17.16572553901449,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,33.52941176470587,28.136628738197324,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,27.058823529411764,17.267343579809324,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,26.274509803921564,19.019958490681464,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.098039215686267,18.59747321381262,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,24.70588235294117,17.63932213207273,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.17647058823529,17.55615896535253,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.607843137254898,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.607843137254898,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.2156862745098,-0.4347989849139422,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.49146110056927,43.084958270862664,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,82.54269449715369,43.21512052106865,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.280834914611,39.405460726883256,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +t0-beta,76.280834914611,41.566566416799866,0.0,0.39731692910815275,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.52182163187855,41.299866988194935,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,71.34724857685009,38.52365982502688,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.58823529411765,38.664211906090074,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.25996204933587,42.35612034793553,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.55218216318785,41.160694873508554,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.36242884250474,38.692030967773526,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.08538899430741,39.17636203783326,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,63.75711574952562,35.32909998910938,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,63.18785578747628,36.05068561273137,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,62.23908918406072,35.636340061546576,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.77229601518026,37.895505694084896,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.685009487666036,35.349544776717664,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.664136622390885,34.96939098084367,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.71537001897534,33.821929615033476,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.57685009487666,34.85996673088817,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.88425047438331,26.73938300302533,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,36.62239089184061,-34.43610797176,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +TFT,35.673624288425046,22.621784862461645,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.586337760910816,17.16572553901449,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,32.63757115749525,28.136628738197324,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,26.37571157495256,17.267343579809324,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.426944971537,19.019958490681464,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.288425047438334,18.59747321381262,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.908918406072107,17.63932213207273,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.493358633776094,17.55615896535253,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.136622390891842,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.136622390891842,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.918406072106261,-0.4347989849139422,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index b12cfb0015cb3ad6a1d6acff28aeb6457b080b94..844c50b51d0876ed821b83e6cadd29de1126e43b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,80.39215686274511,32.76209546401165,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,74.90196078431374,33.03316692519685,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.98039215686278,32.32308539844251,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,69.41176470588239,29.344351413797543,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.21568627450984,33.438886395349634,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.84313725490198,27.337794703817952,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,65.68627450980394,27.268322990213434,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,65.29411764705881,27.225822018524802,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,65.09803921568628,23.819769303955763,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,64.31372549019608,23.233386381595977,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,62.745098039215684,27.954715568142095,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,60.58823529411765,22.905821520524828,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,60.19607843137255,27.390292701614747,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,58.4313725490196,22.397407154652036,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.31372549019608,25.511572546660254,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.66666666666668,15.743427255370591,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,45.88235294117648,20.497180048122175,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,45.68627450980393,18.79828207637473,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,45.68627450980392,21.04711295786791,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,44.901960784313715,22.905411310963697,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,40.784313725490215,10.43217176176322,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,40.3921568627451,20.1359458252089,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,36.66666666666666,19.87985257056947,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -TFT,34.31372549019607,11.954978540056816,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,31.56862745098038,7.846798607353877,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.19607843137254,8.270941698425682,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,28.235294117647054,8.876970964384812,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.117647058823525,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,24.117647058823525,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,21.17647058823529,7.573422520076656,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,20.196078431372552,-1.4181754344372743,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,80.45540796963948,32.76209546401165,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,74.573055028463,33.03316692519685,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,70.58823529411765,32.32308539844251,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,70.0189753320683,30.816945470709612,0.0,0.39731692910815275,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.07020872865276,33.438886395349634,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,68.69070208728654,29.344351413797543,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.98292220113852,27.337794703817952,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,65.08538899430741,27.268322990213434,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,64.51612903225806,27.225822018524802,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,64.13662239089184,23.819769303955763,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,63.567362428842515,23.233386381595977,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.66982922201139,27.954715568142095,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,59.772296015180274,22.905821520524828,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,59.01328273244781,27.390292701614747,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,57.49525616698292,22.397407154652036,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.941176470588246,25.511572546660254,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,46.11005692599621,15.743427255370591,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,45.16129032258064,20.497180048122175,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,44.97153700189753,21.04711295786791,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,44.78178368121442,18.79828207637473,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,43.833017077798864,22.905411310963697,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,40.41745730550285,10.43217176176322,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,39.27893738140418,20.1359458252089,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.05313092979127,19.87985257056947,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,34.15559772296016,11.954978540056816,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,31.11954459203036,7.846798607353877,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,29.601518026565465,8.270941698425682,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,27.703984819734345,8.876970964384812,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,23.719165085388997,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Naive,23.719165085388997,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,20.872865275142317,7.573422520076656,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,19.924098671726757,-1.4181754344372743,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index f3772de48d9a7da5b5e65375124c1a88772db547..e96d804573326f7442106fe2079dc30dd2196ac2 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,83.5294117647059,46.61508000996957,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.7450980392157,46.95158936079286,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,74.7058823529412,46.345857459827535,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.96078431372553,46.72017347554517,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,70.78431372549022,43.43301992727873,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.58823529411768,42.70528893148189,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,69.2156862745098,41.67846999298524,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,69.0196078431373,42.724582618425885,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,67.64705882352942,42.48537652282024,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,66.07843137254902,39.285983729057214,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,65.29411764705884,39.13030672361548,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,63.92156862745097,42.30715931304623,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,63.72549019607842,39.001072214937274,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,62.74509803921566,41.41815251527837,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,61.176470588235276,38.49349413751175,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.52941176470589,38.60017726853074,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.7450980392157,37.1406752463905,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,45.686274509803916,36.392630928433256,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.52941176470589,28.908180959678987,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,36.07843137254903,-38.47401261888097,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.88235294117646,31.759173884046564,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -TFT,34.70588235294117,25.177535871366572,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.52941176470588,23.593149014732116,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,28.431372549019596,22.612749623523154,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,26.862745098039216,20.408513143079997,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.078431372549016,20.28922812580427,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,24.901960784313722,20.741160739642595,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,22.156862745098035,20.882679434165496,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.196078431372545,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.196078431372545,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.352941176470585,-0.2604826516168668,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.49146110056927,46.61508000996957,0.0,1.5423503256585849,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.97343453510437,46.95158936079286,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,74.7628083491461,44.98956156508266,0.0,0.39731692910815275,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,74.19354838709677,46.345857459827535,0.0,207.1012209109704,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.34724857685009,46.72017347554517,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.01897533206831,43.43301992727873,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.63946869070207,42.70528893148189,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,68.3111954459203,41.67846999298524,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,67.93168880455407,42.724582618425885,0.0,0.25170150612913866,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,66.7931688804554,42.48537652282024,0.0,0.35149025861755945,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,65.08538899430741,39.285983729057214,0.0,2.421286794117647,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,64.32637571157495,39.13030672361548,0.0,5.83324835857143,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.808349146110054,42.30715931304623,0.0,1.3284399013646575,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,62.808349146110054,39.001072214937274,0.0,1.0526592295833332,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.10056925996204,41.41815251527837,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,59.96204933586339,38.49349413751175,0.0,0.22620109156862742,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.18216318785579,38.60017726853074,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.802656546489565,37.1406752463905,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,44.4022770398482,36.392630928433256,0.0,0.17278278019607843,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.88425047438331,28.908180959678987,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,35.483870967741936,-38.47401261888097,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.914611005692606,31.759173884046564,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,33.96584440227704,25.177535871366572,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.82732447817837,23.593149014732116,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,27.70398481973435,22.612749623523154,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,25.996204933586338,20.408513143079997,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,25.426944971537,20.28922812580427,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,24.28842504743833,20.741160739642595,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,21.631878557874767,20.882679434165496,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.895635673624291,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.89563567362429,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.144212523719167,-0.2604826516168668,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv index f0db81bf1609bb2fd94732980062f0d6fffff0ac..63a874b6e2ad4317572efb78a717dce1ea1bb8fc 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,8 +4,9 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.007,-0.056,0.046 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.014,0.151 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.031,-0.02,0.088 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.035,-0.013,0.084 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.023,-0.016,0.063 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.002,-0.06,0.068 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.035,-0.013,0.084 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.014,0.137 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.147 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.054,0.002,0.111 @@ -20,8 +21,9 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.069,-0.004,0.152 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.073,0.011,0.152 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.037,-0.018,0.09 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.012,0.1 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.03,-0.04,0.081 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.079,0.092 +TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.012,0.1 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.077,0.001,0.151 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.081,-0.016,0.17 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.06,-0.019,0.126 @@ -36,8 +38,9 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.074,-0.179,0.004 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.005,-0.031,0.04 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.034,-0.136,0.059 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.03,-0.147,0.061 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.042,-0.12,0.033 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.065,-0.191,0.053 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.03,-0.147,0.061 FlowState,TiRex,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.009,-0.039,0.053 FlowState,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.013,-0.071,0.088 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.01,-0.137,0.1 @@ -52,8 +55,9 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.079,-0.179,-0.011 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.005,-0.042,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.039,-0.138,0.044 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.035,-0.159,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.047,-0.13,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.07,-0.208,0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.035,-0.159,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.046,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.009,-0.079,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.015,-0.148,0.092 @@ -68,8 +72,9 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.039,-0.099,0.018 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.033,-0.063,0.12 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.038,-0.046,0.121 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.064,0.056 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.008,-0.073,0.039 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.029,-0.108,0.044 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.064,0.056 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.021,0.114 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.046,-0.062,0.131 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.024,-0.016,0.064 @@ -79,29 +84,31 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.009,0.166 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.09,0.027,0.155 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.06,-0.021,0.137 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.293,0.185,0.393 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.043,-0.111,0.012 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.029,-0.065,0.128 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.034,-0.053,0.137 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.06,0.06 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.033,-0.089,0.01 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.038,-0.039,0.135 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.043,0.133 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.02,-0.056,0.088 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.017,0.175 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.016,0.178 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,-0.005,0.178 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.001,0.179 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.056,-0.018,0.147 -TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.29,0.168,0.396 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.024,-0.067,0.016 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.031,-0.088,0.039 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.04,-0.034,0.107 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.045,-0.027,0.115 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.008,-0.041,0.068 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.022,-0.087,0.045 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.011,-0.06,0.075 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.048,0.002,0.097 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.053,0.0,0.106 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.027,0.09 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.086,0.023,0.153 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.089,0.019,0.158 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.093,0.024,0.163 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.097,0.036,0.158 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.067,0.021,0.118 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.298,0.193,0.393 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.002,-0.074,0.056 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.101,0.073 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.061,-0.056,0.16 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.043,0.172 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.029,-0.046,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.032,-0.01,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.021,-0.047,0.08 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.032,-0.01,0.082 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.069,-0.018,0.161 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.073,-0.003,0.161 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.052,-0.028,0.119 @@ -111,13 +118,31 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.112,-0.002,0.217 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,0.007,0.216 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.087,-0.005,0.174 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.313,0.175,0.425 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.043,-0.111,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.029,-0.065,0.128 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.034,-0.053,0.137 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.06,0.06 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.011,-0.081,0.056 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.033,-0.089,0.01 +TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.038,-0.039,0.135 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.043,0.133 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.02,-0.056,0.088 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.017,0.175 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.016,0.178 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,-0.005,0.178 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.001,0.179 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.056,-0.018,0.147 +TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.29,0.168,0.396 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.158,-0.014 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.083,-0.179,-0.001 TiRex,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.009,-0.056,0.037 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.046,0.044 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.129,0.021 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.039,-0.155,0.037 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.051,-0.107,-0.002 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.074,-0.191,0.018 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.039,-0.155,0.037 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.058,0.061 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.121,0.057 @@ -132,8 +157,9 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.204,0.016 citras-fm,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.014,-0.097,0.066 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.009,-0.093,0.073 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.048,-0.151,0.058 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.153,0.041 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.056,-0.119,-0.0 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.079,-0.192,0.003 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.153,0.041 citras-fm,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.065,0.055 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.024,-0.138,0.079 @@ -148,8 +174,9 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.064,-0.144,0.019 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.01,-0.111,0.12 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.014,-0.101,0.129 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.024,-0.068,0.016 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.02,-0.097,0.053 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.098,0.026 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.054,-0.135,0.027 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.02,-0.097,0.053 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.018,-0.061,0.108 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.023,-0.086,0.121 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -164,8 +191,9 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.127,-0.23,-0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.05,-0.123,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.045,-0.113,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.086,-0.176,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.213,0.016 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.094,-0.18,-0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.118,-0.266,0.012 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.213,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.099,0.01 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.036,-0.116,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.06,-0.173,0.025 @@ -180,8 +208,9 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.131,-0.231,-0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.053,-0.125,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.048,-0.107,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.089,-0.179,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.216,0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.098,-0.187,-0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.121,-0.277,0.014 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.216,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.11,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.039,-0.14,0.039 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.064,-0.181,0.027 @@ -196,8 +225,9 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.136,-0.234,-0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.058,-0.121,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.053,-0.097,-0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.199,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.217,0.005 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.103,-0.195,-0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.127,-0.277,0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.217,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.049,-0.115,-0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.149,0.029 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.068,-0.198,0.029 @@ -212,8 +242,9 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.141,-0.236,-0.067 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.062,-0.132,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.057,-0.113,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.099,-0.183,-0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.218,-0.001 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.107,-0.188,-0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.276,-0.007 +Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.218,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.053,-0.099,-0.013 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.048,-0.136,0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.073,-0.177,0.008 @@ -228,8 +259,9 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.105,-0.2,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.029,-0.078,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.024,-0.063,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.064,-0.159,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.06,-0.173,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.072,-0.134,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.095,-0.21,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.06,-0.173,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.02,-0.056,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.015,-0.073,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.039,-0.155,0.054 @@ -244,8 +276,9 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.469,-0.685,-0.278 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.368,-0.582,-0.212 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.414,-0.646,-0.227 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.409,-0.655,-0.201 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.425,-0.648,-0.239 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.456,-0.74,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.409,-0.655,-0.201 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.349,-0.595,-0.145 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.381,-0.632,-0.185 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 64cf9c6bf0dffbf33f18707e0e6b5e8dad65bb31..714254d63df7eca06c02179780a8e9f3781e42ce 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,27 +1,12 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.047,0.05 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.03,-0.018,0.085 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.006,0.138 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.013,-0.036,0.062 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.033,-0.01,0.076 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.017,0.133 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.12,0.057,0.188 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.064,0.02,0.113 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.116,0.056,0.18 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.11,0.051,0.177 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.12,0.065,0.18 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.053,0.045 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.053,0.045 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,0.006,0.13 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.028,-0.031,0.073 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.033,-0.021,0.086 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.076,0.011,0.144 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.138 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.015,-0.048,0.078 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.138 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.035,-0.012,0.083 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.074,-0.014,0.153 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.122,0.057,0.193 @@ -29,15 +14,31 @@ TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.066,-0.003,0.129 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.118,0.066,0.18 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.112,0.063,0.171 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.086,0.028,0.146 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.122,0.065,0.182 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.326,0.521 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.047,0.05 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.01,0.06 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.03,-0.018,0.085 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.006,0.138 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.013,-0.036,0.062 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.033,-0.01,0.076 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.017,0.133 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.12,0.057,0.188 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.064,0.02,0.113 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.116,0.056,0.18 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.11,0.051,0.177 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.15,-0.006 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.037,-0.108,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.032,-0.122,0.043 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.014,-0.019,0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.051,-0.168,0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.03,-0.136,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.012,-0.072,0.088 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.063,0.004,0.13 @@ -45,15 +46,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.105,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.059,0.017,0.109 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.052,0.019,0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.024,-0.016,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.063,0.026,0.108 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.031,-0.093,0.017 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.029,-0.079,0.03 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.027,-0.064,0.009 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.036,-0.029,0.097 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.005,-0.041,0.061 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.021,0.113 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.014,-0.072,0.036 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.047,0.004,0.09 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.007,-0.056,0.061 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.047,-0.004,0.098 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.096,0.03,0.165 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.039,-0.014,0.089 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.092,0.03,0.156 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.086,0.026,0.145 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.059,0.018,0.103 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.312,0.504 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.034,-0.094,0.021 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.031,-0.093,0.017 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.031,-0.044,0.109 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.005,-0.066,0.039 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.045,-0.037,0.12 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.015,0.109 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.018,-0.086,0.04 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.015,0.109 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.063,0.052 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.057,0.122 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.092,0.019,0.164 @@ -61,15 +78,15 @@ TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.035,-0.001,0.072 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.088,0.022,0.152 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.082,0.013,0.15 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.055,-0.024,0.126 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.092,0.033,0.15 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.298,0.508 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.16,-0.006 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.083,-0.169,-0.012 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.16,-0.006 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.015,-0.052,0.019 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.127,0.021 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.047,-0.136,0.035 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.043,0.034 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.066,-0.179,0.032 +FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.043,0.034 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.045,-0.146,0.04 FlowState,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.091,0.074 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.049,-0.024,0.119 @@ -77,31 +94,15 @@ FlowState,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.011,-0.119,0.088 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.045,-0.02,0.1 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.039,-0.018,0.084 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.01,-0.044,0.062 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.049,-0.005,0.1 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.279,0.479 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.08,-0.16,-0.012 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.045,-0.122,0.015 -TiRex,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.035,0.042 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.064,-0.167,0.016 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.042,-0.14,0.025 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.0,-0.063,0.056 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.003,0.102 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.008,-0.094,0.059 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.047,0.002,0.09 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.041,0.0,0.082 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.051,0.022,0.081 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.013,-0.066,0.034 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.015,-0.084,0.046 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.013,-0.066,0.034 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.049,-0.04,0.144 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.014,-0.037,0.067 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.018,-0.041,0.079 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.062,-0.033,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.06,-0.016,0.143 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.06,-0.016,0.143 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.014,0.053 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.014,0.142 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.109,0.008,0.211 @@ -109,15 +110,31 @@ TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.052,-0.009,0.112 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.104,0.01,0.199 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.099,0.003,0.19 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,-0.002,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.108,0.019,0.195 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.424,0.304,0.525 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.034,-0.083,0.009 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.08,-0.16,-0.012 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.05,-0.098,-0.004 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.045,-0.122,0.015 +TiRex,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.035,0.042 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.064,-0.167,0.016 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.042,-0.14,0.025 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.0,-0.063,0.056 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.003,0.102 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.008,-0.094,0.059 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.047,0.002,0.09 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.041,0.0,0.082 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.036,-0.091,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.034,-0.083,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.029,-0.049,0.12 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.007,-0.066,0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.055,0.059 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.043,-0.041,0.127 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.041,-0.026,0.123 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.021,-0.056,0.014 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.041,-0.026,0.123 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.04,-0.039,0.121 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.09,0.002,0.189 @@ -125,15 +142,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.033,-0.032,0.091 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.086,0.006,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.08,0.001,0.163 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.053,-0.016,0.135 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.09,0.02,0.169 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.294,0.513 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.154,-0.017 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.08,-0.18,0.014 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.154,-0.017 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.012,-0.096,0.067 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.049,-0.109,0.004 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.139,0.054 citras-fm,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.083 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.0,-0.06,0.059 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.165,0.014 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.0,-0.06,0.059 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.042,-0.137,0.037 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.018,0.119 @@ -141,15 +158,15 @@ citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.008,-0.104,0.08 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.047,-0.021,0.123 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.025,0.115 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.013,-0.05,0.06 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.052,-0.006,0.119 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.387,0.27,0.491 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.136,-0.231,-0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.139,-0.239,-0.06 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.136,-0.231,-0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.067,-0.15,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.107,-0.198,-0.031 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.102,-0.196,-0.019 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.052,-0.135,0.023 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.054,-0.114,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.122,-0.267,-0.008 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.054,-0.114,0.003 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.099,-0.233,-0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.135,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -157,15 +174,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.168,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.035,0.026 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.011,-0.053,0.029 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.041,-0.116,0.019 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.0,-0.048,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.23,0.462 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.069,-0.127,-0.02 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.071,-0.147,0.003 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.069,-0.127,-0.02 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.106,0.095 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.098,0.014 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.036,-0.078,0.001 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.011,-0.097,0.106 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.008,-0.062,0.086 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.055,-0.126,0.009 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.008,-0.062,0.086 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.034,-0.101,0.031 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.008,-0.087,0.094 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.017,0.144 @@ -173,15 +190,15 @@ TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.055,-0.024,0.138 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.034,0.139 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.021,-0.062,0.107 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.01,0.134 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.272,0.494 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.131,-0.22,-0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.133,-0.22,-0.071 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.131,-0.22,-0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.062,-0.123,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.101,-0.185,-0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.096,-0.179,-0.023 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.047,-0.111,0.02 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.049,-0.099,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.117,-0.248,-0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.049,-0.099,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.094,-0.208,-0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.141,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.027,0.034 @@ -189,15 +206,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.058,-0.161,0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.006,-0.023,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.036,-0.097,0.015 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.029,0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.356,0.239,0.459 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.124,-0.215,-0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.126,-0.206,-0.067 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.124,-0.215,-0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.055,-0.099,-0.019 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.094,-0.17,-0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.089,-0.176,-0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.04,-0.092,0.017 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.043,-0.089,-0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.109,-0.234,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.043,-0.089,-0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.087,-0.195,-0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.043,-0.13,0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.011,-0.03,0.051 @@ -205,15 +222,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.051,-0.161,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.006,-0.007,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.03,-0.079,0.015 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.011,-0.018,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.252,0.459 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.094,-0.171,-0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.063,-0.114,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.058,-0.144,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.01,-0.066,0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.179,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.055,-0.156,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.013,-0.064,0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.04,-0.02,0.104 @@ -221,31 +238,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.021,-0.119,0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.035,-0.015,0.088 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.029,-0.016,0.073 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.039,-0.002,0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.136,-0.219,-0.069 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.139,-0.222,-0.069 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.067,-0.121,-0.027 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.101,-0.177,-0.034 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.052,-0.112,0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.054,-0.089,-0.023 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.122,-0.242,-0.02 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.099,-0.204,-0.02 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.055,-0.135,0.006 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.0,-0.038,0.046 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.155,0.009 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.031,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.011,-0.035,0.017 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.094,0.002 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.239,0.452 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.086,-0.485 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-1.015,-0.453 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.704,-1.033,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.92,-0.387 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.735,-1.104,-0.437 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.054,-0.417 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.631,-0.966,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.546,-0.857,-0.299 @@ -253,5 +254,4 @@ Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-0.977,-0.373 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.554,-0.848,-0.313 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-0.847,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.547,-0.825,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 03e716174b5717cad8825413c838a0e5736487fa..cad97f61f9b3e1235169bf9690070e095741869c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -2,256 +2,289 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.004,-0.096,0.055 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.006,-0.05,0.058 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.048,-0.062,0.153 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.01,-0.095,0.055 +TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.048,-0.062,0.153 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.028,-0.089,0.101 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.075,-0.005,0.166 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.076,-0.014,0.159 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.117,0.046,0.197 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.124,0.057,0.201 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.076,0.033,0.124 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.067,-0.037,0.144 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,-0.035,0.166 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.128,0.065,0.202 +TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.074,-0.035,0.166 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.134,0.067,0.203 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.097,0.015,0.185 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.328,0.196,0.432 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.004,-0.058,0.087 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.01,-0.041,0.063 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.052,-0.055,0.146 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.006,-0.047,0.035 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.052,-0.055,0.146 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.01,0.073 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,-0.026,0.172 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.079,0.01,0.153 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,0.046,0.2 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.128,0.046,0.21 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.023,0.154 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.07,0.014,0.132 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,0.014,0.153 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.131,0.054,0.214 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,0.014,0.153 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.137,0.061,0.216 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.008,0.183 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.007,-0.061,0.048 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.011,-0.067,0.039 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.042,-0.067,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.017,-0.049,0.013 +TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.042,-0.067,0.148 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.022,-0.056,0.088 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.069,-0.02,0.174 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.069,-0.009,0.165 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.112,0.016,0.213 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.118,0.019,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.07,0.017,0.119 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.123 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.068,-0.018,0.161 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.122,0.027,0.218 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.068,-0.018,0.161 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.128,0.037,0.217 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.091,0.009,0.189 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.323,0.181,0.441 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.051,-0.181,0.058 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.055,-0.17,0.052 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.044,-0.173,0.063 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.201,0.058 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.015,0.073 -FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.02,0.085 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.073,-0.015,0.165 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.08,-0.009,0.17 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.106,0.151 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.118,0.149 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.027,-0.054,0.115 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.084,-0.003,0.172 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.09,0.015,0.169 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.051,-0.011,0.111 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.293,0.17,0.407 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.01,-0.058,0.087 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.036,0.045 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.016,-0.013,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.062,0.167 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.062,0.167 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.038,-0.028,0.098 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.084,-0.018,0.193 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.085,-0.005,0.178 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.126,0.021,0.228 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.133,0.022,0.237 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.085,0.018,0.155 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.076,0.013,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.083,0.006,0.175 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.137,0.031,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.083,0.006,0.175 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.142,0.043,0.237 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.106,0.009,0.206 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.334,0.18,0.452 +FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.051,-0.181,0.058 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.055,-0.17,0.052 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.044,-0.173,0.063 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.201,0.058 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.021,-0.125,0.083 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.015,0.073 +FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.02,0.085 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.073,-0.015,0.165 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.08,-0.009,0.17 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.106,0.151 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.118,0.149 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.084,-0.003,0.172 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.027,-0.054,0.115 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.09,0.015,0.169 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.051,-0.011,0.111 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.293,0.17,0.407 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.029,-0.113,0.082 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.078,0.01 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.022,-0.097,0.053 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.039,-0.109,0.027 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.021,-0.09,0.111 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.048,-0.055,0.133 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.049,-0.019,0.112 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.092,0.016,0.165 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.099,0.015,0.181 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.049,-0.027,0.142 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.04,-0.023,0.1 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.103,0.02,0.186 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.047,-0.005,0.099 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.108,0.03,0.188 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,-0.014,0.143 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.308,0.154,0.431 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.081,-0.199,0.005 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.085,-0.208,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.074,-0.211,0.019 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.028,-0.079,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.092,-0.24,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.028,-0.079,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.05,-0.153,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.041,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.046,-0.017,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.053,-0.012,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.002,-0.124,0.107 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.009,-0.145,0.107 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.083,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.057,-0.002,0.133 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.083,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.064,0.013,0.132 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.025,-0.018,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.082,-0.19,0.014 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.181,-0.01 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.075,-0.198,0.009 -TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.093,0.02 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.093,-0.216,0.005 +TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.093,0.02 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.051,-0.126,0.019 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.047,0.039 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.045,-0.008,0.101 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.053,-0.007,0.112 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.107,0.087 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.01,-0.116,0.077 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.002,-0.065,0.054 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.057,0.001,0.116 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.002,-0.065,0.054 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.019,0.111 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.024,-0.025,0.068 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.133,-0.245,-0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.251,-0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.126,-0.27,-0.016 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.078,-0.197,0.015 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.145,-0.295,-0.021 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.078,-0.197,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.101,-0.198,-0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.048,-0.149,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.047,-0.113,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.008,-0.007,0.028 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.047,-0.146,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.184,0.042 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.049,-0.13,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.012,-0.007,0.035 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.049,-0.13,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.013,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.023,-0.116,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.238,0.068,0.367 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.142,-0.251,-0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.146,-0.267,-0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.134,-0.277,-0.02 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.086,-0.205,0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.153,-0.31,-0.022 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.086,-0.205,0.009 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.11,-0.221,-0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.056,-0.155,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.126,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.008,-0.029,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.055,-0.151,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.066,-0.199,0.041 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.16,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.006,0.014 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.16,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.015,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.031,-0.122,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.232,0.069,0.362 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.082,-0.142,-0.034 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.182,-0.023 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.075,-0.135,-0.017 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.03,-0.178,0.096 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.093,-0.183,-0.019 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.03,-0.178,0.096 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.165,0.026 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.002,-0.119,0.11 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.095,0.096 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.045,-0.022,0.127 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.052,-0.014,0.131 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.01,-0.096,0.055 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.118,0.099 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.056,-0.012,0.138 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.118,0.099 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.062,-0.0,0.141 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.023,-0.088,0.128 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.272,0.111,0.391 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.071,-0.168,0.036 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.076,-0.152,-0.014 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.065,-0.141,0.011 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.175,0.105 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.082,-0.164,-0.014 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.175,0.105 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.111,0.023 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.008,-0.12,0.126 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.009,-0.083,0.104 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.044,0.155 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.062,-0.043,0.166 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.01,-0.059,0.087 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.098,0.11 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.039,0.172 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.098,0.11 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.072,-0.024,0.168 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.033,-0.083,0.138 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.28,0.119,0.413 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.08,-0.199,0.034 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.084,-0.181,-0.014 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.073,-0.191,0.018 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.028,-0.13,0.051 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.091,-0.212,-0.006 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.095,0.076 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.002,-0.057,0.061 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.047,-0.021,0.115 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.021,0.138 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.11,0.105 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.123,0.089 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.058,-0.012,0.138 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.064,-0.002,0.145 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.025,-0.046,0.082 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.274,0.12,0.396 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.147,-0.253,-0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.151,-0.272,-0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.139,-0.28,-0.028 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.091,-0.207,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.158,-0.305,-0.032 +Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.091,-0.207,0.003 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.114,-0.228,-0.02 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.061,-0.154,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.132,-0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.012,-0.036,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.014,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.059,-0.159,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.07,-0.207,0.038 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.062,-0.16,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.062,-0.16,0.012 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.007,-0.017,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.035,-0.121,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.229,0.069,0.357 +citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.08,-0.199,0.034 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.084,-0.181,-0.014 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.073,-0.191,0.018 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.091,-0.212,-0.006 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.028,-0.13,0.051 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.05,-0.109,0.005 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.095,0.076 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.002,-0.057,0.061 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.047,-0.021,0.115 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.021,0.138 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.11,0.105 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.123,0.089 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.058,-0.012,0.138 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.064,-0.002,0.145 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.025,-0.046,0.082 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.274,0.12,0.396 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.154,-0.254,-0.072 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.159,-0.275,-0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.147,-0.277,-0.038 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.203,-0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.166,-0.311,-0.045 +Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.203,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.122,-0.232,-0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.068,-0.152,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.125,-0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.019,-0.047,0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.035,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.066,-0.165,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.077,-0.202,0.024 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.069,-0.169,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.007,-0.029,0.016 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.069,-0.169,0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.042,-0.117,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.224,0.075,0.347 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.108,-0.228,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.225,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.101,-0.233,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.054,-0.125,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.119,-0.26,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.054,-0.125,0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.077,-0.166,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.025,-0.075,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.073,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.022,-0.052,0.104 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.03,-0.047,0.108 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.024,-0.147,0.081 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.034,-0.16,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.026,-0.089,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.034,-0.039,0.108 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.026,-0.089,0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.04,-0.024,0.105 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.487,-0.759,-0.244 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.478,-0.789,-0.22 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.415,-0.685,-0.205 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.502,-0.826,-0.219 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.415,-0.685,-0.205 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.445,-0.757,-0.182 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.313,-0.58,-0.073 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.303,-0.567,-0.074 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.374,-0.641,-0.125 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.388,-0.704,-0.135 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.377,-0.655,-0.136 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.297,-0.556,-0.074 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.377,-0.655,-0.136 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.289,-0.53,-0.081 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 162f18abd0044e406eee7acb7d1ee901c880ced3..b3afe9da2a3906ea111a0c6be1d7282acc59b7dd 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,256 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.006,-0.089,0.046 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.005,-0.04,0.051 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.03,-0.064,0.089 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.002,-0.062,0.05 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.056,-0.047,0.152 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.068,-0.007,0.147 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.015,0.155 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.068,-0.023,0.149 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.123,0.049,0.198 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.072,0.033,0.116 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.123,0.049,0.198 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.121,0.06,0.187 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.075,-0.018,0.147 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.125,0.067,0.184 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.089,0.012,0.168 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.132,0.071,0.192 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.466,0.35,0.556 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.006,-0.049,0.082 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.039,0.066 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.036,0.0,0.073 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.004,-0.042,0.052 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,-0.033,0.139 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.074,0.013,0.138 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.128,0.058,0.2 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.078,0.021,0.149 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.128,0.058,0.2 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.126,0.056,0.198 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.081,0.023,0.141 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.13,0.058,0.202 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.007,0.17 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.138,0.067,0.209 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.005,-0.054,0.039 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.071,0.038 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.025,-0.046,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.032,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.051,-0.05,0.145 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.064,-0.013,0.154 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.008,0.159 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.063,-0.015,0.145 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.119,0.03,0.215 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.067,0.02,0.113 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.119,0.03,0.215 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,0.03,0.205 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,-0.007,0.132 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.12,0.036,0.206 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.084,0.001,0.174 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.128,0.049,0.208 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.463,0.345,0.563 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.03,-0.098,0.06 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.037,-0.078,-0.0 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.025,-0.092,0.044 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.099,0.033 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.028,-0.075,0.113 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.044,0.113 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.057,-0.004,0.113 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.04,-0.009,0.085 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.044,-0.026,0.124 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.096,0.025,0.165 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.094,0.026,0.163 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.046,-0.014,0.102 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.098,0.026,0.167 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.061,-0.014,0.122 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.45,0.326,0.548 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.002,-0.052,0.059 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.004,-0.055,0.041 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.018,0.031 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.034,0.09 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.051,0.154 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.02,0.164 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.006,0.171 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.07,-0.005,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.125,0.027,0.223 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.074,0.018,0.127 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.125,0.027,0.223 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.122,0.029,0.214 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.706,0.529,0.882,0.076,0.006,0.145 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.127,0.034,0.216 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.001,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.134,0.046,0.223 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.467,0.343,0.569 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.06,-0.179,0.045 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.162,0.032 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.054,-0.17,0.047 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.028,-0.127,0.07 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.182,0.049 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.013,-0.031,0.055 FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.03,-0.018,0.087 FlowState,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.012,-0.07,0.099 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,-0.021,0.168 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.016,-0.101,0.128 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,-0.021,0.168 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.068,-0.02,0.155 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.096,0.139 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.073,-0.013,0.156 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.042,0.103 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.08,0.008,0.153 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.434,0.317,0.535 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.073,-0.172,0.007 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.068,-0.182,0.013 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.127,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.197,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.059,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.0,-0.07,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.059,-0.007,0.147 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.105,0.095 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.059,-0.007,0.147 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.056,-0.002,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.111,0.108 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.061,0.005,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.068,0.021,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.092,-0.183,-0.015 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.19,-0.008 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.128,0.004 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.095,-0.206,-0.006 TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.031,-0.095,0.018 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.078,0.032 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.01,0.103 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.014,-0.11,0.062 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.042,-0.01,0.103 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.039,-0.01,0.087 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.011,-0.11,0.072 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.044,-0.003,0.091 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.052,0.017,0.089 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.073,-0.176,0.023 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.08,-0.16,-0.013 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.067,-0.169,0.015 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.041,-0.093,0.009 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.075,-0.184,0.005 citras-fm,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.013,-0.11,0.066 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.0,-0.077,0.065 citras-fm,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.033,0.072 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.009,0.125 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.099,0.1 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.009,0.125 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.01,0.123 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.007,-0.094,0.096 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.061,-0.004,0.129 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.022,-0.04,0.07 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.069,0.009,0.138 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.427,0.308,0.53 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.14,-0.246,-0.052 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.147,-0.251,-0.061 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.273,-0.031 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.142,-0.286,-0.028 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.202,0.02 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.062,-0.172,0.007 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.114,0.01 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.143,0.009 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.824,-0.058,-0.156,0.021 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.003,-0.027,0.022 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.167,0.043 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.032,0.036 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.039,-0.146,0.037 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.01,-0.033,0.049 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.391,0.24,0.508 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.077,-0.132,-0.034 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.084,-0.176,-0.021 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.072,-0.128,-0.02 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.046,-0.142,0.025 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.079,-0.146,-0.018 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.017,-0.146,0.092 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.105,0.095 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.014,-0.066,0.099 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.112,0.09 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.176,0.588,0.055,-0.021,0.135 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.176,0.588,0.055,-0.021,0.135 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.053,-0.01,0.127 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.072 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.057,-0.009,0.131 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.018,-0.09,0.12 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.065,0.005,0.137 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.425,0.292,0.529 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.14,-0.246,-0.052 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.147,-0.251,-0.061 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.273,-0.031 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.107,-0.197,-0.026 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.142,-0.286,-0.028 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.202,0.02 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.062,-0.172,0.007 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.044,-0.114,0.01 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.063,-0.143,0.009 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.647,0.412,0.824,-0.058,-0.156,0.021 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.003,-0.027,0.022 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.055,-0.167,0.043 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.002,-0.032,0.036 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.039,-0.146,0.037 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.391,0.24,0.508 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.137,-0.23,-0.064 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.145,-0.246,-0.06 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.132,-0.258,-0.031 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.104,-0.195,-0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.14,-0.273,-0.03 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.073,-0.183,0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.15,0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.096,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.06,-0.14,0.01 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.003,-0.023,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.056,-0.145,0.01 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.003,-0.023,0.027 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.17,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.005,-0.009,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.036,-0.132,0.037 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.013,-0.015,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.393,0.249,0.509 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.081,-0.173,0.018 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.088,-0.164,-0.023 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.075,-0.152,0.007 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.049,-0.113,0.014 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.471,-0.083,-0.169,-0.006 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.02,-0.161,0.088 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.121,0.1 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.011,-0.078,0.099 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.007,-0.106,0.086 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.045,0.143 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.077,0.074 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.052,-0.045,0.143 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.05,-0.046,0.145 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.054,-0.045,0.156 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.015,-0.09,0.111 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.062,-0.029,0.15 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.423,0.286,0.532 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.143,-0.226,-0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.15,-0.253,-0.062 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.137,-0.259,-0.037 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.109,-0.201,-0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.145,-0.275,-0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.078,-0.185,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.065,-0.15,-0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.046,-0.1,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.065,-0.148,0.004 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.038,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.061,-0.151,0.009 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.002,-0.038,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.005,-0.017,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.057,-0.184,0.043 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.041,-0.13,0.029 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.016,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.39,0.252,0.503 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.097,-0.201,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.205,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.092,-0.21,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.065,-0.139,0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.225,-0.001 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.036,-0.115,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.023,-0.075,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.038,-0.038,0.127 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.019,-0.136,0.082 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.038,-0.038,0.127 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.035,-0.038,0.117 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.015,-0.124,0.082 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.04,-0.03,0.115 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.048,-0.016,0.114 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.152,-0.238,-0.076 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.159,-0.264,-0.072 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.146,-0.263,-0.052 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.154,-0.287,-0.048 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.087,-0.181,-0.008 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.074,-0.146,-0.022 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.055,-0.098,-0.017 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.074,-0.161,-0.009 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.01,-0.051,0.032 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.069,-0.158,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.013,-0.037,0.015 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.066,-0.176,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.032,0.016 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.05,-0.129,0.015 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.385,0.254,0.492 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.873,-1.255,-0.539 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.864,-1.289,-0.527 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.818,-1.213,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.877,-1.323,-0.523 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.768,-1.152,-0.464 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.746,-1.126,-0.445 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.643,-1.034,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.739,-1.124,-0.413 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.643,-1.034,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.647,-1.038,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.733,-1.136,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.639,-1.01,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.626,-0.97,-0.341 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv index df5b7fc6d03c30982b2fdf5d60869a7c9b91f0e1..e244e8b686924c948a9738e34f3f92f9cba559d9 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.96666666666665,37.418142618225446,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.26666666666667,35.49604805949068,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.73333333333333,32.5393249088468,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.6,32.387834625003144,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.16666666666664,33.74349114336882,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.70000000000002,32.103467905355906,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,66.39999999999999,30.608733044317482,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.26666666666665,30.012261653781213,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.13333333333334,30.19759066683737,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.46666666666666,31.112805324307402,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,61.03333333333333,30.56231268455708,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.43333333333333,27.82962523446033,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -citras-fm,58.50000000000001,29.329473045675424,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.49999999999999,28.232968102451405,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,54.41666666666668,29.834438056726754,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.79999999999999,28.03661927932215,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.03333333333333,27.22464946284655,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.73333333333333,26.515147822937145,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,42.99999999999999,23.692356407414938,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.53333333333333,24.74621402790721,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -LightGBM,40.63333333333334,21.69219430463617,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.866666666666674,16.442674540572565,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -TFT,36.050000000000004,20.478801720010832,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.866666666666653,18.365235176937922,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,29.75,17.520543454298565,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoETS,27.216666666666672,2.258981624201861,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,26.93333333333333,11.626047486251256,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -AutoTheta,25.13333333333333,10.988470150572827,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.066666666666665,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.666666666666666,-16.673948829260542,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.133333333333333,-18.139203863942367,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.64516129032259,37.418142618225446,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.4193548387097,35.49604805949068,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,75.09677419354838,34.86310953380794,0.0,2.291506616524533,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,75.06451612903226,32.5393249088468,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.87096774193549,32.387834625003144,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.29032258064517,33.74349114336882,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,72.90322580645162,32.103467905355906,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,65.64516129032259,30.608733044317482,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.29032258064517,30.012261653781213,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.935483870967744,30.19759066683737,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.16129032258064,31.112805324307402,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,60.06451612903226,30.56231268455708,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,59.4516129032258,27.82962523446033,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +citras-fm,57.25806451612904,29.329473045675424,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.580645161290334,28.232968102451405,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,53.53225806451613,29.834438056726754,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.9032258064516,28.03661927932215,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.80645161290323,27.22464946284655,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.612903225806456,26.515147822937145,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,42.064516129032256,23.692356407414938,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.48387096774193,24.74621402790721,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +LightGBM,39.83870967741936,21.69219430463617,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.16129032258064,16.442674540572565,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +TFT,35.24193548387097,20.478801720010832,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,31.03225806451613,18.365235176937922,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.951612903225804,17.520543454298565,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoETS,26.82258064516129,2.258981624201861,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,26.451612903225808,11.626047486251256,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoTheta,24.483870967741936,10.988470150572827,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.677419354838708,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.354838709677422,-16.673948829260542,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,11.903225806451614,-18.139203863942367,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 7ffe02326d7e689dac47f641cb0d32aaa824864f..8d86fc7e09dffddf7b5dad564810de4ad803422c 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,87.16666666666666,48.65524647906905,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.13333333333334,47.28056092394619,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.93333333333334,45.49902087737486,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.33333333333331,44.42079033843436,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.63333333333333,44.43401764205588,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.93333333333334,44.2259025848964,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,71.39999999999999,42.57610771086986,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,69.23333333333333,42.906973730643784,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.43333333333334,42.20062123896394,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TS-ICL,64.03333333333332,43.114760468834355,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,63.46666666666667,43.14992977468493,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,61.133333333333326,41.1775589747051,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.96666666666667,39.910953970691175,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.766666666666666,40.75545607156532,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,57.833333333333336,40.711208003360944,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.71666666666666,41.48655788811914,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.5,39.3137408355856,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.666666666666664,38.89296155238764,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -TFT,39.79999999999999,32.179160778195325,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.333333333333336,33.42287700575167,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.56666666666666,20.65501241734049,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -PatchTST,34.43333333333333,30.08894584013384,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,33.349999999999994,29.083502888132696,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,29.96666666666668,21.30413459295425,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -AutoETS,25.549999999999994,-26.81852698010143,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -CatBoost,24.933333333333334,22.997503309584754,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,23.200000000000003,20.97912784353272,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.299999999999997,5.457380346204543,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.73333333333333,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.849999999999998,-45.39898892506442,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.6999999999999975,-45.77585382275593,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.77419354838709,48.65524647906905,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.32258064516128,47.28056092394619,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,78.70967741935483,46.65268130472352,0.0,2.291506616524533,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.80645161290322,45.49902087737486,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.54838709677419,44.42079033843436,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.7741935483871,44.43401764205588,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.06451612903226,44.2259025848964,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.12903225806453,42.57610771086986,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,68.29032258064517,42.906973730643784,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.06451612903226,42.20062123896394,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,62.41935483870969,43.114760468834355,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,62.2258064516129,43.14992977468493,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,59.87096774193549,41.1775589747051,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,59.741935483870975,39.910953970691175,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.64516129032258,40.75545607156532,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,56.74193548387096,40.711208003360944,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.53225806451613,41.48655788811914,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Moirai-2.0,52.064516129032256,39.3137408355856,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.354838709677416,38.89296155238764,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +TFT,38.774193548387096,32.179160778195325,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.322580645161295,33.42287700575167,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.83870967741935,20.65501241734049,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +PatchTST,33.48387096774193,30.08894584013384,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.46774193548387,29.083502888132696,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,29.258064516129036,21.30413459295425,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoETS,24.98387096774194,-26.81852698010143,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +CatBoost,24.193548387096776,22.997503309584754,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,22.483870967741932,20.97912784353272,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,19.741935483870968,5.457380346204543,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.290322580645162,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.564516129032258,-45.39898892506442,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.516129032258065,-45.77585382275593,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 103a0c00e7ee9bb664548e28d5732cee6bc123fc..f7738b3ae744345e76b00b44f05cf2c85404206f 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,85.23333333333333,41.325908753022354,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.8,36.655476599492175,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.69999999999999,36.5373020731926,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,77.2,39.409805837073975,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.56666666666665,36.18019120000263,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,72.46666666666667,37.013893240142316,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.26666666666667,34.552959974412325,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.19999999999999,33.71926320465137,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,65.13333333333333,33.56017085610355,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,63.49999999999999,35.88702911767603,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.13333333333332,34.311830542228016,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.79999999999998,33.12206767654865,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.91666666666667,34.85338837192187,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -citras-fm,57.766666666666666,33.228576848601165,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,56.00000000000001,31.521347579266624,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.26666666666667,31.003497455653605,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.43333333333333,30.623849383137735,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.46666666666666,29.7700644245001,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.900000000000006,27.263435635951726,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -CatBoost,40.53333333333333,25.513623085529268,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,39.53333333333332,23.22107212878407,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -TFT,36.85,22.701418498964355,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.566666666666656,19.45356301921389,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -PatchTST,32.9,21.454006198599707,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,29.249999999999993,20.00208736844964,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoETS,27.449999999999996,4.328689696857202,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,26.266666666666666,13.59923382668422,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -AutoTheta,23.433333333333334,13.794755051782015,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Naive,16.666666666666664,-6.11148885263364,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.100000000000001,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.699999999999998,-8.604851831604222,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.87096774193549,41.325908753022354,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.12903225806451,36.655476599492175,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,77.06451612903226,36.5373020731926,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,76.38709677419355,39.409805837073975,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.83870967741936,36.18019120000263,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,74.16129032258064,38.31819495036844,0.0,2.291506616524533,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,71.45161290322581,37.013893240142316,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.58064516129032,34.552959974412325,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.2258064516129,33.56017085610355,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,64.06451612903226,33.71926320465137,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,62.54838709677419,35.88702911767603,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.838709677419345,34.311830542228016,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.80645161290323,33.12206767654865,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.01612903225806,34.85338837192187,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +citras-fm,56.483870967741936,33.228576848601165,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,55.19354838709678,31.521347579266624,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.38709677419355,31.003497455653605,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.161290322580655,30.623849383137735,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.32258064516129,29.7700644245001,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.935483870967744,27.263435635951726,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +CatBoost,39.64516129032258,25.513623085529268,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,38.774193548387096,23.22107212878407,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +TFT,36.112903225806456,22.701418498964355,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.87096774193548,19.45356301921389,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +PatchTST,32.193548387096776,21.454006198599707,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.53225806451613,20.00208736844964,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoETS,27.04838709677419,4.328689696857202,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,25.774193548387093,13.59923382668422,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoTheta,22.903225806451616,13.794755051782015,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.35483870967742,-6.11148885263364,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.806451612903226,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.516129032258064,-8.604851831604222,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 51432f8bbab839706b9cdee41a198bcc56dc1ea8..69fa269439b6f26ff3a1bc02f2a8cf3efbe7d868 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,86.36666666666667,53.05718652202853,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.23333333333333,51.51952214825128,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.56666666666669,49.24866297220161,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.23333333333332,49.216680021395334,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,77.26666666666667,48.96246297090489,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.56666666666666,49.541871830300074,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,70.4,47.667686183186916,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.90000000000002,46.66550397197716,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.69999999999999,48.823976057806895,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.26666666666667,46.725581728728585,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 -TS-ICL,63.33333333333333,47.2334428820716,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,61.46666666666669,46.00575783181618,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 -citras-fm,61.36666666666667,45.996803093015814,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.51666666666665,46.64627267107563,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 -Toto-1.0,58.83333333333333,45.020650430975195,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,56.199999999999996,44.71123966611387,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.7,43.85203108990482,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.1,43.187343942010905,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 -TFT,39.20000000000001,34.96909756614174,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.90000000000001,37.43731641740621,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -PatchTST,34.96666666666667,34.333137688827605,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.86666666666665,22.373149282241844,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 -DeepAR,32.31666666666667,32.57997581707056,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 -AutoARIMA,28.93333333333335,24.478385201079067,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 -CatBoost,25.999999999999996,26.618319920348675,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,25.8,24.359769443081024,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.916666666666668,-27.02677793164787,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,19.666666666666668,7.846425954475189,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.566666666666668,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.18333333333333,-39.12143349013901,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.666666666666664,-40.058509992498315,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.06451612903226,53.05718652202853,0.0,3.684950821946356,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.25806451612904,51.51952214825128,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.70967741935483,49.24866297220161,0.0,2.475109659013122,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.35483870967742,49.216680021395334,0.0,5.5801265210361946,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.25806451612904,50.826950334930245,0.0,2.291506616524533,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,76.45161290322581,48.96246297090489,0.0,1.0593594651694915,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.45161290322581,49.541871830300074,0.0,0.2732166898999398,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,69.6774193548387,47.667686183186916,0.0,0.25098008629032265,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.87096774193549,46.66550397197716,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.54838709677419,48.823976057806895,0.0,234.61960928093293,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.06451612903226,46.725581728728585,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TS-ICL,61.87096774193548,47.2334428820716,0.0,2.490942546116587,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,60.41935483870968,46.00575783181618,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +citras-fm,60.03225806451613,45.996803093015814,0.0,0.5998385805326234,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.37096774193547,46.64627267107563,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Toto-1.0,57.87096774193547,45.020650430975195,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,55.064516129032256,44.71123966611387,0.0,0.20414014627496163,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.2258064516129,43.85203108990482,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.70967741935484,43.187343942010905,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +TFT,38.25806451612903,34.96909756614174,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.93548387096775,37.43731641740621,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +PatchTST,34.12903225806453,34.333137688827605,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.16129032258064,22.373149282241844,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +DeepAR,31.435483870967744,32.57997581707056,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,28.25806451612904,24.478385201079067,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +CatBoost,25.193548387096776,26.618319920348675,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.032258064516128,24.359769443081024,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,23.435483870967744,-27.02677793164787,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoTheta,19.193548387096776,7.846425954475189,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.2258064516129,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.951612903225806,-39.12143349013901,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.516129032258065,-40.058509992498315,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv index fd90cf5d7fc0f3b3659fceeda02d80a1355e6414..1c8281879d241f14c088f30bd1e2fd7f64ec655d 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -3,16 +3,16 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.03,0.012,0.049 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.61,0.51,0.71,0.072,0.04,0.106 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.074,0.042,0.107 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.66,0.84,0.039,0.019,0.058 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.055,0.031,0.079 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.078,0.047,0.11 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.106,0.074,0.14 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.098,0.068,0.131 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.106,0.074,0.14 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.103,0.073,0.136 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.099,0.069,0.128 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.133,0.094,0.175 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.092,0.066,0.117 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.114,0.082,0.149 -TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.108,0.075,0.14 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.128,0.098,0.162 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.148,0.118,0.182 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.374,0.335,0.414 @@ -20,16 +20,16 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.031,-0.052,-0.012 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.044,0.014,0.073 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.046,0.015,0.076 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.01,-0.005,0.024 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.026,0.006,0.048 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.05,0.019,0.079 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.078,0.052,0.108 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.07,0.042,0.099 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.078,0.052,0.108 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.076,0.048,0.103 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.071,0.046,0.098 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.106,0.07,0.146 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.064,0.043,0.085 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.087,0.062,0.117 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.081,0.055,0.108 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.101,0.073,0.133 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.122,0.096,0.15 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.355,0.318,0.393 @@ -37,16 +37,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.39,0.29,0.49,-0.078,-0.118,-0.041 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.046,-0.079,-0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.002,-0.003,0.008 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.55,0.46,0.65,-0.036,-0.069,-0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.018,-0.053,0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.63,0.54,0.73,0.006,-0.001,0.015 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.75,0.036,0.014,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.028,0.018,0.039 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.75,0.036,0.014,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.034,0.012,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.61,0.52,0.71,0.028,-0.021,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.065,0.028,0.108 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.62,0.8,0.021,-0.013,0.053 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.69,0.61,0.78,0.045,0.012,0.078 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.64,0.8,0.039,-0.006,0.083 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.06,0.04,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.082,0.054,0.11 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.325,0.284,0.37 @@ -54,33 +54,50 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.08,-0.12,-0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.048,-0.082,-0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.002,-0.008,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.038,-0.073,-0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.02,-0.055,0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.004,-0.002,0.01 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.034,0.011,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.026,0.015,0.037 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.034,0.011,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.031,0.01,0.052 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.026,-0.023,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.063,0.026,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.019,-0.016,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.043,0.01,0.077 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.036,-0.009,0.082 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.058,0.036,0.079 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.08,0.051,0.108 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.324,0.282,0.368 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.16,0.34,-0.041,-0.061,-0.02 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.01,-0.025,0.005 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.35,0.54,0.034,0.002,0.065 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.037,0.005,0.068 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.52,0.42,0.61,0.017,-0.004,0.036 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.51,0.41,0.6,0.041,0.01,0.072 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.061,0.033,0.09 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.069,0.04,0.1 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.067,0.038,0.098 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.062,0.034,0.093 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.097,0.059,0.141 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.054,0.035,0.073 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.73,0.87,0.078,0.053,0.105 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.092,0.065,0.123 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.77,0.91,0.114,0.083,0.144 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.349,0.309,0.389 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.059,-0.086,-0.032 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.027,-0.05,-0.006 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.018,-0.014,0.05 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.02,-0.012,0.052 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.48,0.39,0.58,-0.017,-0.038,0.004 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.49,0.39,0.59,0.024,-0.006,0.057 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.053,0.03,0.081 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.045,0.019,0.072 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.053,0.03,0.081 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.051,0.022,0.08 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.046,0.016,0.078 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.082,0.045,0.123 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.038,0.015,0.062 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.062,0.038,0.089 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.056,0.029,0.082 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.077,0.051,0.105 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.098,0.07,0.126 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.337,0.299,0.38 @@ -88,67 +105,67 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.085,-0.124,-0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.053,-0.086,-0.019 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.37,0.27,0.46,-0.006,-0.015,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.004,-0.01,0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.49,0.4,0.59,-0.042,-0.078,-0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.51,0.41,0.61,-0.025,-0.06,0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.03,0.008,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.022,0.013,0.031 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.03,0.008,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.027,0.008,0.048 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.022,-0.028,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.059,0.021,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.014,-0.022,0.048 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.039,0.006,0.071 -Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.032,-0.014,0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.054,0.032,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.076,0.048,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.91,0.99,0.321,0.28,0.367 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.118,-0.163,-0.08 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.085,-0.121,-0.055 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.33,0.25,0.42,-0.037,-0.065,-0.014 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.035,-0.063,-0.011 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.056,-0.088,-0.03 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.031,-0.057,-0.008 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.485,0.385,0.585,-0.003,-0.019,0.014 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,-0.008,-0.055,0.033 -TiRex,FlowState,0.515,0.425,0.61,0.03,-0.001,0.067 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.57,0.47,0.66,-0.016,-0.052,0.015 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.01,-0.013,0.034 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.003,-0.041,0.04 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.025,0.003,0.045 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.048,0.029,0.067 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.3,0.264,0.339 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.109,-0.15,-0.073 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.076,-0.11,-0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.029,-0.04,-0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.026,-0.038,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.065,-0.099,-0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.047,-0.078,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.022,-0.032,-0.013 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.009,-0.009,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.009,-0.009,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.006,-0.015,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.001,-0.048,0.048 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.039,0.003,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.63,0.54,0.73,-0.007,-0.041,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.018,-0.011,0.048 -Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.011,-0.031,0.054 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.033,0.016,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.056,0.028,0.08 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.306,0.266,0.351 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.118,-0.163,-0.08 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.085,-0.121,-0.055 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.33,0.25,0.42,-0.037,-0.065,-0.014 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.035,-0.063,-0.011 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.074,-0.111,-0.042 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.056,-0.088,-0.03 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.031,-0.057,-0.008 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.485,0.385,0.585,-0.003,-0.019,0.014 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,-0.008,-0.055,0.033 +TiRex,FlowState,0.515,0.425,0.61,0.03,-0.001,0.067 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.57,0.47,0.66,-0.016,-0.052,0.015 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.01,-0.013,0.034 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.025,0.003,0.045 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.048,0.029,0.067 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.3,0.264,0.339 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.115,-0.157,-0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.082,-0.115,-0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.035,-0.057,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.032,-0.055,-0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.072,-0.108,-0.04 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.054,-0.088,-0.023 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.028,-0.051,-0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.515,0.415,0.615,0.003,-0.014,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.006,-0.026,0.015 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.515,0.415,0.615,0.003,-0.014,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.005,-0.051,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.515,0.69,0.033,0.002,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.45,0.64,-0.013,-0.048,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.012,-0.017,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.005,-0.038,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.59,0.505,0.68,0.027,0.005,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.625,0.79,0.05,0.029,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.302,0.267,0.342 @@ -156,16 +173,16 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.11,-0.147,-0.075 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.076,-0.109,-0.048 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.39,0.29,0.48,-0.029,-0.082,0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.027,-0.08,0.022 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.066,-0.102,-0.035 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.048,-0.084,-0.016 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.023,-0.075,0.028 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.36,0.27,0.45,0.008,-0.034,0.052 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.001,-0.051,0.046 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.36,0.27,0.45,0.008,-0.034,0.052 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.005,-0.039,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.038,-0.004,0.08 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.008,-0.045,0.026 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.017,-0.018,0.051 -TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.01,-0.012,0.034 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.52,0.42,0.61,0.032,-0.015,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.49,0.69,0.055,0.015,0.096 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.306,0.264,0.346 @@ -173,16 +190,16 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.153,-0.212,-0.104 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.119,-0.171,-0.075 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.07,-0.121,-0.029 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.067,-0.118,-0.026 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.108,-0.164,-0.062 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.089,-0.14,-0.047 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.063,-0.111,-0.021 -FlowState,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.575,-0.031,-0.071,0.001 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.04,-0.086,-0.003 +FlowState,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.575,-0.031,-0.071,0.001 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.31,0.485,-0.034,-0.075,-0.002 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.039,-0.087,0.004 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.44,0.35,0.53,-0.048,-0.105,-0.001 FlowState,citras-fm,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.021,-0.053,0.011 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.66,-0.029,-0.076,0.012 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.006,-0.049,0.034 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.55,0.735,0.018,-0.013,0.046 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.278,0.234,0.322 @@ -190,16 +207,16 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.101,-0.133,-0.07 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.068,-0.093,-0.045 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.2,0.38,-0.021,-0.055,0.013 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.019,-0.053,0.016 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.058,-0.078,-0.037 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.04,-0.066,-0.016 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.015,-0.051,0.021 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.43,0.34,0.53,0.016,-0.015,0.049 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.27,0.46,0.007,-0.025,0.04 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.43,0.34,0.53,0.016,-0.015,0.049 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.36,0.55,0.013,-0.019,0.045 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.008,-0.027,0.043 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.56,0.47,0.65,0.045,0.001,0.095 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.025,-0.005,0.059 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.018,-0.014,0.053 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.04,0.011,0.073 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.063,0.027,0.097 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.311,0.27,0.355 @@ -207,50 +224,33 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.129,-0.176,-0.09 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.096,-0.132,-0.066 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.22,0.39,-0.048,-0.084,-0.013 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.21,0.38,-0.045,-0.084,-0.01 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.13,0.27,-0.085,-0.117,-0.056 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.19,0.12,0.26,-0.067,-0.098,-0.039 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.041,-0.077,-0.006 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.01,-0.036,0.013 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.018,-0.05,0.011 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.01,-0.036,0.013 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.012,-0.045,0.017 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.018,-0.053,0.018 citras-fm,FlowState,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.021,-0.011,0.051 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.026,-0.062,0.005 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.65,-0.007,-0.04,0.023 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.015,-0.015,0.044 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.038,0.016,0.061 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.293,0.251,0.336 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.121,-0.162,-0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.088,-0.12,-0.058 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.2,0.36,-0.04,-0.09,0.006 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.038,-0.089,0.009 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.059,-0.09,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.033,-0.083,0.013 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.25,0.45,-0.003,-0.042,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.011,-0.057,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.005,-0.047,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.01,-0.036,0.012 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.54,0.028,-0.012,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.019,-0.056,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.44,0.35,0.54,0.007,-0.023,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.022,-0.021,0.065 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.51,0.42,0.61,0.045,0.008,0.083 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.915,0.99,0.298,0.254,0.342 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.147,-0.193,-0.108 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.153,-0.079 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.064,-0.089,-0.042 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.061,-0.086,-0.038 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.102,-0.14,-0.07 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.083,-0.118,-0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.057,-0.081,-0.033 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.025,-0.047,-0.003 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.034,-0.055,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.025,-0.047,-0.003 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.32,0.495,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.39,0.58,-0.034,-0.082,0.015 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.006,-0.035,0.047 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.042,-0.079,-0.012 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.016,-0.046,0.015 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.023,-0.07,0.021 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.45,0.635,0.023,-0.005,0.049 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.282,0.241,0.327 @@ -258,16 +258,16 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.04,0.16,-0.174,-0.222,-0.133 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.139,-0.177,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.089,-0.123,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.087,-0.121,-0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.15,0.09,0.23,-0.128,-0.168,-0.091 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.109,-0.144,-0.076 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.082,-0.115,-0.051 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.05,-0.072,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.059,-0.088,-0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.05,-0.072,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.21,0.375,-0.053,-0.077,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.41,0.31,0.51,-0.058,-0.106,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.36,0.265,0.45,-0.018,-0.049,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.067,-0.107,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.04,-0.065,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.49,0.39,0.58,-0.047,-0.091,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.365,0.55,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.265,0.226,0.304 @@ -275,16 +275,16 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.598,-0.708,-0.504 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.55,-0.648,-0.466 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.482,-0.588,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.479,-0.583,-0.392 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.535,-0.635,-0.447 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.509,-0.613,-0.427 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.01,0.09,-0.473,-0.579,-0.388 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.429,-0.512,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.441,-0.541,-0.362 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.429,-0.512,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.433,-0.52,-0.365 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.44,-0.529,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.386,-0.475,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.452,-0.549,-0.369 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.415,-0.507,-0.334 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.01,0.085,-0.425,-0.52,-0.341 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.393,-0.485,-0.318 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.361,-0.437,-0.293 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv index f1e3858303a111f500e8ed60e7be16ac1c5d72d6..b075fcaf6da46a20b0e4f7e524fc63ed5595ea5f 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,289 +2,289 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.026,0.009,0.045 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.076,0.044,0.109 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.038,0.019,0.055 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.076,0.044,0.108 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.73,0.64,0.83,0.058,0.033,0.084 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.079,0.047,0.112 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.106,0.074,0.141 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.101,0.071,0.134 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.112,0.082,0.144 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.097,0.073,0.122 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.097,0.071,0.123 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.097,0.073,0.122 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.146,0.105,0.186 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.127,0.096,0.161 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.133,0.102,0.168 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.134,0.103,0.17 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.16,0.129,0.193 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.442,0.534 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.027,-0.047,-0.009 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.051,0.022,0.081 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.012,-0.001,0.025 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.051,0.021,0.081 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.49,0.4,0.59,0.033,0.012,0.055 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.055,0.025,0.085 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.082,0.056,0.111 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.55,0.74,0.077,0.047,0.104 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.088,0.059,0.115 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.073,0.054,0.094 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.78,0.7,0.85,0.073,0.05,0.097 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.073,0.054,0.094 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.123,0.087,0.162 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.78,0.93,0.104,0.077,0.134 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.11,0.081,0.141 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.111,0.082,0.142 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.137,0.11,0.168 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.427,0.521 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.082,-0.123,-0.046 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.054,-0.088,-0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.54,0.45,0.64,-0.042,-0.076,-0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.61,0.52,0.71,-0.0,-0.007,0.006 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.02,-0.055,0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.003,-0.006,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.032,0.009,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.027,0.014,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.038,0.015,0.06 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.023,-0.012,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.57,0.74,0.022,-0.024,0.067 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.023,-0.012,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.075,0.039,0.116 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.055,0.022,0.087 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.062,0.04,0.084 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.063,0.044,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.09,0.06,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.444,0.394,0.5 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.039,-0.058,-0.019 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.012,-0.025,0.001 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.46,0.36,0.55,0.04,0.008,0.07 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.49,0.39,0.58,0.04,0.009,0.07 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.021,-0.001,0.041 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.51,0.41,0.6,0.044,0.013,0.075 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.68,0.6,0.77,0.071,0.042,0.101 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.066,0.038,0.094 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.077,0.048,0.107 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.062,0.036,0.088 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.062,0.044,0.079 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.112,0.075,0.155 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.093,0.064,0.121 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.1,0.072,0.13 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.127,0.097,0.158 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.514 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.082,-0.122,-0.046 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.054,-0.088,-0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.39,0.29,0.48,0.0,-0.006,0.007 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.51,0.42,0.61,-0.042,-0.075,-0.009 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.49,0.39,0.59,-0.02,-0.056,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.004,-0.002,0.01 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.032,0.009,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.027,0.016,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.039,0.017,0.06 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.023,-0.011,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.023,-0.024,0.067 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.023,-0.011,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.075,0.039,0.117 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.055,0.021,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.062,0.04,0.083 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.063,0.044,0.083 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.091,0.06,0.12 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.444,0.394,0.5 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.27,0.17,0.36,-0.061,-0.091,-0.034 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.51,0.41,0.6,-0.034,-0.058,-0.012 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.019,-0.013,0.052 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.022,-0.043,0.001 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.51,0.41,0.61,0.019,-0.013,0.053 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.4,0.6,0.023,-0.008,0.056 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.051,0.026,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.5,0.7,0.045,0.019,0.073 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.057,0.027,0.088 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.042,0.019,0.065 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.041,0.01,0.071 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.042,0.019,0.065 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.093,0.057,0.133 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.073,0.049,0.097 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.08,0.053,0.109 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.081,0.057,0.109 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.108,0.081,0.133 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.409,0.504 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.086,-0.126,-0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.058,-0.093,-0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.32,0.24,0.41,-0.004,-0.012,0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.49,0.4,0.59,-0.045,-0.081,-0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.004,-0.01,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.4,0.6,-0.023,-0.059,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.029,0.008,0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.023,0.014,0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.035,0.014,0.056 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.02,-0.015,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.019,-0.028,0.062 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.02,-0.015,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.072,0.034,0.112 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.052,0.019,0.084 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.059,0.037,0.08 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.059,0.042,0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.087,0.058,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.442,0.392,0.498 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.118,-0.164,-0.08 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.089,-0.125,-0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.033,-0.059,-0.01 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.32,0.23,0.4,-0.076,-0.113,-0.043 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.033,-0.059,-0.009 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.054,-0.083,-0.027 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.03,-0.054,-0.008 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.51,0.41,0.61,-0.006,-0.026,0.012 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.565,0.465,0.66,0.006,-0.01,0.022 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.61,0.52,0.7,-0.009,-0.043,0.021 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,-0.01,-0.053,0.029 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.61,0.52,0.7,-0.009,-0.043,0.021 TiRex,FlowState,0.655,0.56,0.75,0.044,0.014,0.08 TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.024,0.001,0.047 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.031,0.009,0.052 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.031,0.015,0.049 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.06,0.042,0.08 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.379,0.479 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.112,-0.155,-0.076 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.26,0.45,-0.083,-0.117,-0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.027,-0.04,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.07,-0.104,-0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.027,-0.039,-0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.3,0.5,-0.048,-0.078,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.024,-0.033,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.49,0.39,0.59,0.006,-0.012,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.012,-0.008,0.033 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.51,0.69,-0.004,-0.037,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.59,0.5,0.69,-0.004,-0.052,0.04 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.51,0.69,-0.004,-0.037,0.028 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.05,0.014,0.088 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.029,-0.002,0.058 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.036,0.02,0.054 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.037,0.024,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.066,0.038,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.429,0.379,0.485 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.126,-0.169,-0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.04,-0.064,-0.016 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.083,-0.119,-0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.04,-0.064,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.061,-0.097,-0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.036,-0.059,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.435,0.34,0.535,-0.007,-0.023,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.012,-0.035,0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.016,-0.051,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.51,0.7,-0.017,-0.059,0.023 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.016,-0.051,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.65,0.56,0.735,0.038,0.008,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.017,-0.013,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.67,0.024,0.001,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.025,0.003,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.635,0.8,0.054,0.033,0.075 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.422,0.375,0.474 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.108,-0.139,-0.078 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.079,-0.104,-0.057 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.023,-0.059,0.012 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.024,-0.058,0.011 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.26,0.17,0.34,-0.044,-0.069,-0.02 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.02,-0.055,0.015 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.39,0.3,0.48,0.009,-0.021,0.041 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.31,0.49,0.004,-0.029,0.036 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.016,-0.016,0.048 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.38,0.58,-0.001,-0.033,0.03 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.053,0.01,0.102 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.033,0.003,0.066 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.04,0.01,0.073 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.041,0.01,0.074 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.069,0.035,0.103 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.431,0.383,0.483 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.107,-0.14,-0.077 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.22,0.15,0.3,-0.078,-0.107,-0.053 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.26,0.43,-0.023,-0.071,0.023 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.066,-0.097,-0.037 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.37,0.28,0.45,-0.023,-0.072,0.023 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.043,-0.077,-0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.019,-0.067,0.028 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.32,0.23,0.41,0.01,-0.03,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.31,0.5,0.004,-0.042,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.3,0.49,0.016,-0.024,0.056 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.51,0.42,0.62,0.001,-0.031,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.51,0.42,0.62,0.001,-0.031,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.054,0.012,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.034,-0.003,0.069 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.04,-0.005,0.084 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.51,0.42,0.6,0.041,-0.0,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.07,0.031,0.108 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.385,0.484 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.108,-0.139,-0.078 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.079,-0.104,-0.057 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.023,-0.059,0.012 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.066,-0.086,-0.046 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.024,-0.058,0.011 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.26,0.17,0.34,-0.044,-0.069,-0.02 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.02,-0.055,0.015 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.39,0.3,0.48,0.009,-0.021,0.041 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.31,0.49,0.004,-0.029,0.036 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.016,-0.016,0.048 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.38,0.58,-0.001,-0.033,0.03 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.053,0.01,0.102 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.58,0.48,0.67,0.033,0.003,0.066 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.04,0.01,0.073 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.069,0.035,0.103 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.431,0.383,0.483 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.17,-0.229,-0.118 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.14,-0.193,-0.095 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.081,-0.131,-0.04 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.126,-0.183,-0.081 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.081,-0.133,-0.04 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.103,-0.153,-0.06 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.077,-0.127,-0.036 FlowState,TiRex,0.345,0.25,0.44,-0.046,-0.087,-0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.052,-0.097,-0.014 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.265,0.44,-0.04,-0.08,-0.008 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.056,-0.114,-0.01 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.057,-0.109,-0.012 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.056,-0.114,-0.01 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,citras-fm,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.022,-0.054,0.013 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.014,-0.058,0.025 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.013,-0.056,0.022 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.69,0.017,-0.016,0.045 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.399,0.352,0.451 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.13,0.07,0.19,-0.146,-0.193,-0.106 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.15,0.07,0.22,-0.116,-0.155,-0.083 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.058,-0.095,-0.022 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.103,-0.138,-0.068 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.059,-0.097,-0.022 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.19,0.12,0.26,-0.079,-0.107,-0.051 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.055,-0.091,-0.02 citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.024,-0.049,-0.001 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.03,-0.061,0.002 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.018,-0.049,0.012 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.034,-0.07,-0.003 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.035,-0.074,0.003 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.42,0.33,0.52,-0.034,-0.07,-0.003 citras-fm,FlowState,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.021,-0.013,0.052 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.007,-0.024,0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.008,-0.021,0.036 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.037,0.016,0.058 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.412,0.362,0.466 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.154,-0.201,-0.114 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.124,-0.164,-0.088 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.066,-0.092,-0.041 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.111,-0.15,-0.077 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.066,-0.091,-0.042 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.087,-0.122,-0.056 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.062,-0.087,-0.038 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.032,-0.054,-0.01 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.038,-0.057,-0.02 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.515,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.041,-0.079,-0.01 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.042,-0.092,0.005 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.041,-0.079,-0.01 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.014,-0.026,0.055 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.007,-0.038,0.024 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.56,0.47,0.65,0.001,-0.015,0.016 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.46,0.645,0.03,0.001,0.055 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.408,0.354,0.464 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.155,-0.205,-0.114 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.125,-0.166,-0.09 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.067,-0.09,-0.046 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.067,-0.09,-0.046 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.088,-0.122,-0.06 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.063,-0.083,-0.043 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.032,-0.052,-0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.038,-0.051,-0.025 -Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.026,-0.05,-0.003 -Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.042,-0.08,-0.01 -Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.4,0.58,-0.043,-0.091,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.013,-0.023,0.053 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.46,0.37,0.55,-0.008,-0.037,0.021 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.53,-0.001,-0.016,0.015 -Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.03,0.003,0.054 -Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.407,0.356,0.462 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.19,-0.239,-0.148 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.159,-0.201,-0.123 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.17,0.09,0.24,-0.099,-0.135,-0.064 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.145,-0.187,-0.107 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.1,-0.136,-0.063 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.121,-0.154,-0.088 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.064,-0.088,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.07,-0.101,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.28,0.2,0.365,-0.057,-0.081,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.074,-0.115,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.075,-0.121,-0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.074,-0.115,-0.036 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.31,0.495,-0.017,-0.048,0.015 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.039,-0.062,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.355,0.54,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.031,-0.058,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.389,0.342,0.441 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-1.146,-0.793 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.087,-0.745 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.799,-1.002,-0.651 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.06,-0.723 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.8,-1.001,-0.649 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.015,-0.692 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.793,-0.991,-0.646 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-0.919,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.752,-0.941,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.73,-0.902,-0.6 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.758,-0.934,-0.621 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.759,-0.937,-0.626 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.758,-0.934,-0.621 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.664,-0.822,-0.542 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.7,-0.874,-0.566 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.688,-0.867,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.687,-0.859,-0.552 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.636,-0.788,-0.52 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 6f73de9a6ce8c738709703eb5352e38f81c1a7bf..b2987ba8799f931a336de1c189b71933dc7e1626 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -4,16 +4,16 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.074,0.035,0.11 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.49,0.69,0.075,0.036,0.112 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.032,0.006,0.059 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.081,0.041,0.119 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.049,0.012,0.081 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.79,0.7,0.87,0.068,0.034,0.106 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.103,0.066,0.14 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.117,0.072,0.16 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.115,0.077,0.152 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.085,0.055,0.112 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.107,0.067,0.147 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.123,0.086,0.159 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.107,0.067,0.147 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.099,0.064,0.137 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.121,0.082,0.164 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.143,0.102,0.183 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.165,0.125,0.206 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.413,0.365,0.46 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.08,-0.123,-0.036 @@ -21,16 +21,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.46,0.64,0.002,-0.005,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.52,0.43,0.62,-0.045,-0.08,-0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.007,-0.001,0.017 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.027,-0.064,0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.62,0.53,0.71,-0.006,-0.044,0.033 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.032,0.016,0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.047,0.019,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.58,0.75,0.044,0.017,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.012,-0.037,0.061 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.036,-0.009,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.053,0.014,0.088 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.036,-0.009,0.076 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.028,-0.019,0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.71,0.63,0.8,0.051,0.021,0.081 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.79,0.71,0.88,0.075,0.049,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.098,0.064,0.129 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.367,0.314,0.421 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.31,0.51,-0.082,-0.126,-0.037 @@ -38,16 +38,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.36,0.54,-0.002,-0.008,0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.53,0.44,0.62,-0.047,-0.083,-0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.51,0.7,0.006,-0.001,0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.58,0.49,0.68,-0.029,-0.066,0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.61,0.52,0.7,-0.008,-0.044,0.029 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.03,0.016,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.045,0.018,0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.043,0.016,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.01,-0.038,0.06 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.034,-0.01,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.051,0.01,0.088 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.034,-0.01,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.026,-0.021,0.072 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.05,0.019,0.078 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.073,0.047,0.101 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.096,0.063,0.127 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.365,0.312,0.418 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.033,-0.063,-0.006 @@ -55,16 +55,16 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.043,0.011,0.074 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.47,0.38,0.56,0.045,0.011,0.077 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.52,0.42,0.61,0.051,0.017,0.083 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.52,0.42,0.61,0.018,-0.001,0.037 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.5,0.7,0.038,0.01,0.066 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.074,0.043,0.107 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.088,0.057,0.12 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.086,0.054,0.118 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.055,0.028,0.082 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.078,0.05,0.107 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.094,0.054,0.13 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.078,0.05,0.107 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.07,0.039,0.1 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.093,0.066,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.115,0.081,0.153 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.137,0.105,0.171 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.394,0.349,0.44 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.088,-0.135,-0.043 @@ -72,33 +72,50 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.008,-0.017,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.3,0.49,-0.006,-0.012,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.48,0.39,0.58,-0.053,-0.09,-0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.035,-0.072,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.013,-0.05,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.7,0.87,0.025,0.013,0.037 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.039,0.015,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.037,0.012,0.061 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.005,-0.046,0.054 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.028,-0.016,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.046,0.005,0.083 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.028,-0.016,0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.02,-0.025,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.044,0.015,0.073 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.068,0.043,0.094 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.091,0.059,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.362,0.31,0.415 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.26,0.17,0.34,-0.051,-0.089,-0.012 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.026,-0.009,0.06 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.42,0.32,0.51,0.028,-0.007,0.062 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.48,0.39,0.58,-0.018,-0.038,0.001 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.034,-0.002,0.067 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.59,0.48,0.69,0.021,-0.009,0.047 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.058,0.025,0.091 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.072,0.04,0.103 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.6,0.78,0.069,0.035,0.102 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.038,0.005,0.072 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.72,0.62,0.8,0.078,0.034,0.117 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.79,0.7,0.86,0.061,0.036,0.084 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.053,0.019,0.083 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.076,0.051,0.099 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.122,0.091,0.152 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.383,0.333,0.432 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.21,0.13,0.3,-0.073,-0.119,-0.035 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.38,0.29,0.47,0.006,-0.034,0.042 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.39,0.3,0.48,0.008,-0.03,0.043 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.3,0.5,-0.04,-0.071,-0.01 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.013,-0.023,0.048 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.41,0.31,0.52,-0.021,-0.049,0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.53,0.42,0.63,0.038,0.008,0.068 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.052,0.023,0.084 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.05,0.018,0.085 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.018,-0.025,0.057 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.041,0.009,0.076 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.058,0.011,0.101 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.041,0.009,0.076 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.033,0.002,0.065 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.057,0.03,0.084 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.08,0.05,0.115 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.103,0.069,0.136 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.37,0.326,0.416 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.115,-0.163,-0.071 @@ -106,16 +123,16 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.033,-0.051,-0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.031,-0.047,-0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.08,-0.12,-0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.21,0.13,0.3,-0.025,-0.039,-0.013 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.061,-0.1,-0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.47,0.37,0.58,-0.039,-0.072,-0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.015,-0.007,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.013,-0.01,0.036 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.46,0.65,-0.021,-0.072,0.03 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.004,-0.038,0.041 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.021,-0.018,0.058 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.004,-0.038,0.041 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.005,-0.048,0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.02,-0.007,0.046 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.044,0.023,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.068,0.041,0.096 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.346,0.295,0.398 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.132,-0.191,-0.077 @@ -123,16 +140,16 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.049,-0.083,-0.019 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.24,0.17,0.32,-0.047,-0.078,-0.018 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.097,-0.137,-0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.041,-0.072,-0.015 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.37,0.29,0.47,-0.077,-0.115,-0.042 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.055,-0.091,-0.023 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.015,-0.04,0.007 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.515,0.42,0.61,-0.002,-0.02,0.014 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.57,0.47,0.66,-0.036,-0.092,0.017 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.62,0.53,0.71,-0.011,-0.054,0.027 TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.45,0.64,0.007,-0.034,0.042 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.62,0.53,0.71,-0.011,-0.054,0.027 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.62,0.52,0.71,-0.02,-0.065,0.026 TiRex,citras-fm,0.61,0.52,0.71,0.005,-0.016,0.025 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.535,0.725,0.03,0.007,0.05 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.745,0.66,0.83,0.054,0.032,0.077 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.384 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.13,-0.18,-0.083 @@ -140,16 +157,16 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.34,0.25,0.42,-0.046,-0.075,-0.018 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.044,-0.072,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.41,-0.094,-0.133,-0.057 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.039,-0.065,-0.012 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.3,0.22,0.4,-0.075,-0.113,-0.037 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.052,-0.092,-0.018 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.46,0.37,0.55,-0.013,-0.037,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.58,0.002,-0.014,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.034,-0.082,0.016 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.009,-0.052,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.5,0.685,0.009,-0.024,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.009,-0.052,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.017,-0.06,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.007,-0.018,0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.455,0.635,0.032,0.006,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.65,0.81,0.056,0.034,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.337,0.293,0.386 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.093,-0.127,-0.059 @@ -157,67 +174,67 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.012,-0.065,0.036 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.01,-0.064,0.037 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.058,-0.09,-0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.005,-0.057,0.044 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.039,-0.078,-0.005 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.018,-0.06,0.025 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.35,0.54,0.02,-0.031,0.067 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.43,0.34,0.53,0.035,-0.018,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.033,-0.016,0.076 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.024,-0.011,0.061 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.51,0.4,0.61,0.041,-0.004,0.089 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.024,-0.011,0.061 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.016,-0.014,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.04,-0.006,0.081 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.064,0.011,0.112 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.63,0.53,0.73,0.087,0.043,0.13 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.359,0.314,0.404 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.12,-0.172,-0.071 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.037,-0.082,0.009 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.035,-0.079,0.01 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.084,-0.119,-0.053 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.029,-0.072,0.016 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.043,-0.082,-0.009 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.25,0.45,-0.004,-0.043,0.036 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.47,0.011,-0.028,0.051 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.009,-0.032,0.049 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.025,-0.065,0.011 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.018,-0.039,0.069 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.46,0.65,-0.008,-0.047,0.026 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.016,-0.017,0.047 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.041,0.006,0.08 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.55,0.72,0.065,0.031,0.099 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.343,0.295,0.39 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.14,-0.188,-0.094 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.056,-0.097,-0.014 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.054,-0.097,-0.01 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.104,-0.15,-0.057 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.048,-0.09,-0.005 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.28,0.2,0.38,-0.084,-0.132,-0.035 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.062,-0.112,-0.011 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.022,-0.062,0.017 FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.36,0.55,-0.007,-0.044,0.033 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.315,0.5,-0.009,-0.044,0.024 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.49,0.39,0.6,-0.043,-0.098,0.004 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.018,-0.074,0.037 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.47,0.38,0.57,-0.018,-0.074,0.037 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.64,-0.027,-0.078,0.022 FlowState,citras-fm,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.002,-0.04,0.042 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.44,0.625,0.023,-0.018,0.067 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.545,0.73,0.048,0.016,0.084 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.331,0.285,0.379 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.12,-0.172,-0.071 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.037,-0.082,0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.035,-0.079,0.01 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.084,-0.119,-0.053 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.029,-0.072,0.016 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.21,0.14,0.3,-0.065,-0.092,-0.038 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.043,-0.082,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.25,0.45,-0.004,-0.043,0.036 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.47,0.011,-0.028,0.051 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.009,-0.032,0.049 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.025,-0.065,0.011 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.53,0.43,0.62,0.018,-0.039,0.069 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.46,0.65,-0.008,-0.047,0.026 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.016,-0.017,0.047 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.55,0.72,0.065,0.031,0.099 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.343,0.295,0.39 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.11,-0.158,-0.068 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.028,-0.077,0.018 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.027,-0.078,0.021 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.075,-0.111,-0.04 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.021,-0.071,0.025 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.056,-0.09,-0.02 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.034,-0.069,-0.002 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.005,-0.039,0.046 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.48,0.019,-0.026,0.061 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.017,-0.027,0.057 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.016,-0.051,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.45,0.35,0.54,0.008,-0.027,0.045 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.47,0.36,0.57,0.026,-0.023,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.45,0.35,0.54,0.008,-0.027,0.045 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.48,0.39,0.58,0.024,-0.013,0.06 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.41,0.6,0.049,0.004,0.095 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.51,0.71,0.072,0.032,0.113 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.94,1.0,0.349,0.305,0.394 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.138,-0.197,-0.089 @@ -225,50 +242,33 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.2,0.37,-0.054,-0.088,-0.021 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.26,0.17,0.34,-0.052,-0.085,-0.019 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.102,-0.14,-0.071 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.046,-0.079,-0.015 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.083,-0.11,-0.053 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.06,-0.092,-0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.02,-0.048,0.007 citras-fm,TiRex,0.39,0.29,0.48,-0.005,-0.025,0.016 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.007,-0.032,0.018 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.041,-0.088,0.006 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.016,-0.05,0.017 citras-fm,FlowState,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.002,-0.044,0.039 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.016,-0.05,0.017 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.61,-0.025,-0.064,0.012 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.025,-0.003,0.054 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.049,0.026,0.072 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.332,0.284,0.382 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.167,-0.224,-0.114 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.12,0.29,-0.081,-0.115,-0.052 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.079,-0.112,-0.049 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.13,-0.18,-0.089 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.073,-0.104,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.087,-0.13,-0.052 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.046,-0.07,-0.024 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.275,0.465,-0.031,-0.053,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.365,0.545,-0.033,-0.063,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.068,-0.127,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.042,-0.087,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.47,0.375,0.56,-0.024,-0.072,0.018 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.4,0.59,-0.051,-0.105,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.026,-0.057,0.003 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.025,-0.003,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.315,0.266,0.365 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.197,-0.259,-0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.109,-0.148,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.107,-0.146,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.159,-0.207,-0.117 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.1,-0.138,-0.063 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.139,-0.18,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.115,-0.157,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.073,-0.106,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.255,0.17,0.34,-0.057,-0.083,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.35,-0.06,-0.086,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.37,0.27,0.47,-0.095,-0.149,-0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.36,0.28,0.45,-0.069,-0.11,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.36,0.27,0.455,-0.05,-0.092,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.36,0.28,0.45,-0.069,-0.11,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.39,0.29,0.49,-0.078,-0.127,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.052,-0.077,-0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.026,-0.056,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.298,0.252,0.345 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.704,-0.853,-0.576 @@ -276,15 +276,15 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.579,-0.727,-0.458 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.576,-0.72,-0.455 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.65,-0.787,-0.537 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.567,-0.709,-0.45 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.621,-0.76,-0.499 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.588,-0.713,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.528,-0.66,-0.419 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.623,-0.408 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.509,-0.63,-0.414 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.56,-0.678,-0.458 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.522,-0.641,-0.419 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.495,-0.609,-0.398 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.522,-0.641,-0.419 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.06,-0.535,-0.65,-0.439 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.498,-0.619,-0.397 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.576,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.424,-0.527,-0.336 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv index 394894ae3330bc669e978f60904d3f5b20ac55e2..fe2fe812e1f0b7a7f400af52f426b3e1b4b07bca 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,8 +1,9 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.032,0.007,0.057 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.075,0.036,0.11 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.51,0.69,0.076,0.038,0.111 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.032,0.007,0.057 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.045,0.014,0.076 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.08,0.042,0.116 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.07,0.036,0.109 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.103,0.066,0.139 @@ -11,15 +12,32 @@ TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.083,0.055,0.11 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.119,0.082,0.157 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.11,0.072,0.15 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.131,0.093,0.168 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.131,0.091,0.174 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.12,0.085,0.157 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.146,0.104,0.188 +TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.131,0.091,0.174 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.174,0.135,0.215 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.531,0.487,0.576 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.033,-0.06,-0.007 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.045,0.012,0.077 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.045,0.014,0.075 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.41,0.6,0.014,-0.002,0.031 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.05,0.017,0.081 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.039,0.009,0.069 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.074,0.042,0.107 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.053,0.026,0.079 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.081,0.053,0.11 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.102,0.063,0.137 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.091,0.057,0.12 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.102,0.073,0.135 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.081,-0.124,-0.038 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.047,-0.083,-0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.001,-0.007,0.008 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.047,-0.083,-0.012 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.53,0.43,0.63,-0.032,-0.068,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.006,-0.002,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.59,0.49,0.68,-0.006,-0.044,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.03,0.016,0.045 @@ -28,15 +46,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.008,-0.039,0.057 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.047,0.022,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.038,-0.004,0.077 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.06,0.019,0.095 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.06,0.029,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.049,-0.001,0.094 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.077,0.051,0.105 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.06,0.029,0.092 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.107,0.074,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.492,0.44,0.545 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.31,0.49,-0.082,-0.124,-0.039 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.048,-0.082,-0.014 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.001,-0.008,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.048,-0.082,-0.014 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.52,0.43,0.62,-0.033,-0.068,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.005,-0.005,0.015 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.6,0.5,0.69,-0.006,-0.046,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.03,0.014,0.046 @@ -45,32 +63,32 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.008,-0.04,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.047,0.02,0.072 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.038,-0.005,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.059,0.02,0.093 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.72,0.64,0.81,0.06,0.027,0.091 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.048,-0.001,0.094 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.076,0.049,0.105 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.72,0.64,0.81,0.06,0.027,0.091 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.106,0.072,0.137 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.492,0.441,0.544 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.033,-0.06,-0.007 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.045,0.012,0.077 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.045,0.014,0.075 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.05,0.017,0.081 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.039,0.009,0.069 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.074,0.042,0.107 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.053,0.026,0.079 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.081,0.053,0.11 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.102,0.063,0.137 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.102,0.073,0.135 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.091,0.057,0.12 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.118,0.083,0.156 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.048,-0.082,-0.014 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.4,0.59,-0.014,-0.031,0.002 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.47,0.37,0.57,0.031,-0.003,0.063 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.032,-0.002,0.063 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.037,0.003,0.069 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.59,0.48,0.68,0.025,-0.003,0.052 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.06,0.03,0.091 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.078,0.045,0.11 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.039,0.007,0.072 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.077,0.043,0.108 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.068,0.044,0.092 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.089,0.047,0.127 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.078,0.043,0.108 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.089,0.062,0.115 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.134,0.104,0.165 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.508,0.46,0.553 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.087,-0.132,-0.043 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.053,-0.088,-0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.006,-0.014,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.005,-0.015,0.005 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.053,-0.088,-0.017 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.52,0.43,0.62,-0.038,-0.074,-0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.57,0.47,0.66,-0.011,-0.048,0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.025,0.014,0.036 @@ -79,15 +97,15 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.62,0.54,0.71,0.003,-0.045,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.042,0.019,0.066 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.033,-0.009,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.055,0.014,0.091 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.055,0.025,0.085 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.043,-0.006,0.089 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.072,0.047,0.097 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.055,0.025,0.085 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.102,0.069,0.131 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.49,0.439,0.542 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.075,-0.122,-0.037 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.041,-0.074,-0.009 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.41,0.32,0.51,0.006,-0.034,0.042 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.31,0.5,0.006,-0.035,0.044 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.041,-0.074,-0.009 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.41,0.32,0.52,-0.026,-0.055,0.003 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.43,0.34,0.53,0.011,-0.026,0.046 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.54,0.43,0.63,0.036,0.002,0.067 @@ -96,15 +114,15 @@ TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.61,0.52,0.71,0.014,-0.03,0.054 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.053,0.022,0.087 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.044,0.012,0.079 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.065,0.017,0.107 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.066,0.04,0.092 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.054,0.02,0.087 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.082,0.053,0.118 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.066,0.04,0.092 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.86,0.8,0.93,0.112,0.08,0.143 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.495,0.449,0.541 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.115,-0.161,-0.07 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.079,-0.12,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.031,-0.047,-0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.031,-0.049,-0.014 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.079,-0.12,-0.043 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.064,-0.1,-0.03 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.025,-0.037,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.46,0.37,0.57,-0.037,-0.072,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -113,15 +131,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.023,-0.074,0.027 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.018,-0.006,0.041 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.68,0.59,0.78,0.008,-0.032,0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.031,-0.007,0.066 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.031,0.002,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.019,-0.03,0.064 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.048,0.027,0.07 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.031,0.002,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.079,0.05,0.105 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.477,0.426,0.528 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.136,-0.195,-0.084 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.1,-0.144,-0.062 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.051,-0.083,-0.021 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.05,-0.086,-0.021 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.1,-0.144,-0.062 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.085,-0.123,-0.048 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.28,0.2,0.36,-0.045,-0.076,-0.019 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.057,-0.093,-0.027 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.44,0.35,0.55,-0.019,-0.045,0.003 @@ -130,15 +148,15 @@ TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.042,-0.096,0.012 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.555,0.455,0.65,-0.001,-0.02,0.017 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.63,0.54,0.72,-0.011,-0.053,0.028 TiRex,FlowState,0.605,0.515,0.7,0.012,-0.033,0.048 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.012,-0.007,0.032 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.0,-0.049,0.044 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.675,0.585,0.765,0.03,0.008,0.05 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.012,-0.007,0.032 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.09,-0.123,-0.058 +TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.056,-0.086,-0.027 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.3,0.48,-0.008,-0.06,0.038 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.39,0.3,0.48,-0.008,-0.057,0.038 -TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.056,-0.086,-0.027 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.041,-0.077,-0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.38,0.29,0.46,-0.003,-0.055,0.043 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.39,0.29,0.48,-0.014,-0.057,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.022,-0.028,0.069 @@ -147,15 +165,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.039,-0.009,0.081 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.03,-0.007,0.069 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.59,0.49,0.69,0.052,0.007,0.099 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.052,0.007,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.041,0.009,0.076 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.47,0.66,0.069,0.016,0.118 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.052,0.007,0.098 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.099,0.055,0.142 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.488,0.44,0.535 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.135,-0.186,-0.089 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.099,-0.139,-0.063 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.05,-0.077,-0.023 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.049,-0.078,-0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.099,-0.139,-0.063 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.083,-0.121,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.044,-0.071,-0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.056,-0.095,-0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.018,-0.042,0.006 @@ -164,15 +182,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.041,-0.088,0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.01,-0.052,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.51,0.695,0.013,-0.02,0.045 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.013,-0.012,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.001,-0.047,0.044 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.475,0.665,0.031,0.006,0.056 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.013,-0.012,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.76,0.685,0.835,0.062,0.04,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.467,0.422,0.518 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.124,-0.176,-0.077 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.088,-0.124,-0.056 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.04,-0.083,0.004 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.039,-0.084,0.005 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.088,-0.124,-0.056 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.073,-0.101,-0.046 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.034,-0.076,0.009 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.046,-0.086,-0.012 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.32,0.22,0.41,-0.008,-0.047,0.031 @@ -181,15 +199,15 @@ TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.031,-0.074,0.007 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.01,-0.031,0.05 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.023,-0.035,0.074 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.023,-0.01,0.055 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.46,0.64,0.011,-0.031,0.048 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.04,0.006,0.077 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.023,-0.01,0.055 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.071,0.037,0.104 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.472,0.422,0.521 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.15,-0.202,-0.103 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.114,-0.159,-0.068 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.064,-0.106,-0.02 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.063,-0.102,-0.02 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.114,-0.159,-0.068 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.098,-0.146,-0.049 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.058,-0.1,-0.015 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.07,-0.12,-0.018 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.032,-0.071,0.007 @@ -198,32 +216,15 @@ FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.41,0.31,0.51,-0.055,-0.11,-0.007 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.305,0.49,-0.014,-0.047,0.02 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.023,-0.079,0.034 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.0,-0.04,0.048 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.012,-0.068,0.038 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.45,0.635,0.018,-0.024,0.065 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.42,0.33,0.52,0.0,-0.04,0.048 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.575,0.75,0.05,0.015,0.088 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.46,0.412,0.509 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.15,-0.211,-0.1 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.064,-0.101,-0.03 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.19,0.36,-0.063,-0.1,-0.028 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.114,-0.156,-0.079 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.058,-0.093,-0.026 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.07,-0.101,-0.041 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.45,-0.032,-0.065,-0.002 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.013,-0.033,0.007 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.055,-0.108,-0.007 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.014,-0.039,0.012 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.023,-0.058,0.01 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.0,-0.05,0.038 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.012,-0.056,0.028 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.018,-0.011,0.047 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.049,0.026,0.073 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.46,0.41,0.509 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.137,-0.187,-0.093 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.101,-0.137,-0.061 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.051,-0.104,0.001 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.051,-0.104,0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.101,-0.137,-0.061 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.085,-0.121,-0.045 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.045,-0.097,0.006 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.057,-0.095,-0.021 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.02,-0.068,0.029 @@ -232,32 +233,32 @@ TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.043,-0.082,-0.009 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.001,-0.046,0.045 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.45,0.36,0.54,-0.011,-0.051,0.03 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.012,-0.04,0.063 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.012,-0.029,0.053 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.49,0.4,0.58,0.03,-0.02,0.08 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.012,-0.029,0.053 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.061,0.019,0.105 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.985,0.96,1.0,0.466,0.42,0.513 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.171,-0.232,-0.116 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.083,-0.117,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.083,-0.117,-0.052 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.134,-0.185,-0.091 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.077,-0.108,-0.05 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.09,-0.134,-0.056 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.051,-0.075,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.031,-0.053,-0.008 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.43,0.34,0.53,-0.074,-0.133,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.335,0.525,-0.032,-0.06,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.042,-0.083,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.46,0.365,0.55,-0.018,-0.069,0.023 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.018,-0.049,0.011 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.51,0.42,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.02 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.5,0.675,0.032,0.004,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.398,0.501 +citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.15,-0.211,-0.1 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.114,-0.156,-0.079 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.064,-0.101,-0.03 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.28,0.19,0.36,-0.063,-0.1,-0.028 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.098,-0.13,-0.066 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.27,0.18,0.35,-0.058,-0.093,-0.026 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.07,-0.101,-0.041 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.37,0.28,0.45,-0.032,-0.065,-0.002 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.013,-0.033,0.007 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.055,-0.108,-0.007 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.014,-0.039,0.012 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.023,-0.058,0.01 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.58,0.48,0.67,-0.0,-0.05,0.038 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.012,-0.056,0.028 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.049,0.026,0.073 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.46,0.41,0.509 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.21,-0.274,-0.156 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.119,-0.158,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.119,-0.159,-0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.155,-0.198,-0.116 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.113,-0.151,-0.074 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.14,0.07,0.2,-0.126,-0.167,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.086,-0.118,-0.053 @@ -266,15 +267,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.11,-0.166,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.165,0.315,-0.066,-0.092,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.077,-0.115,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.34,0.25,0.425,-0.052,-0.097,-0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.052,-0.079,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.065,-0.117,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.325,0.5,-0.033,-0.065,-0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.052,-0.079,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.01,0.0,0.04,-1.13,-1.361,-0.948 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.063,-1.27,-0.883 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.97,-1.195,-0.786 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.969,-1.195,-0.789 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.063,-1.27,-0.883 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.034,-1.237,-0.853 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.959,-1.184,-0.782 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.982,-1.179,-0.814 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.911,-1.118,-0.742 @@ -283,8 +284,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.954,-1.15,-0.785 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.877,-1.074,-0.729 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.895,-1.088,-0.731 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.852,-1.039,-0.701 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.852,-1.036,-0.694 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.015,0.0,0.04,-0.874,-1.055,-0.723 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.819,-1.004,-0.66 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.852,-1.036,-0.694 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 3dc03dd14833becd30552d793989452608ee5599..ad6f4e8c6e545ed9112a0e6f6618ff75dce65a54 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,87.49999999999999,43.68737937284833,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.16666666666669,39.36065711235778,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,77.99999999999999,40.35527492863492,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.83333333333333,33.8286308921188,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,71.83333333333334,33.45628492457764,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,70.33333333333333,33.23816302237865,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,63.16666666666666,38.731113564322584,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,62.66666666666666,31.711376634125298,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,61.83333333333334,32.341284052204614,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TiRex,61.66666666666667,31.37878712819341,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,60.5,29.889473184557,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -TS-ICL,60.0,35.91589487686446,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,59.16666666666668,32.627851253463945,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.83333333333333,37.31565282683812,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.666666666666664,30.96058630074824,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,49.91666666666666,30.066987483189834,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -CatBoost,49.666666666666664,30.455043900424116,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.166666666666664,28.910798192784526,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.333333333333336,29.84834988479378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.750000000000014,28.43040512442394,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,45.49999999999999,26.15800221608241,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -TFT,41.99999999999999,25.36909549957551,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.166666666666664,22.043936094093443,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -PatchTST,34.333333333333336,23.853686364116655,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,32.66666666666668,21.286621636178083,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -DeepAR,30.66666666666667,20.242779035445857,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,25.333333333333336,2.308819055034983,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.499999999999993,14.792523584936335,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.333333333333332,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.16666666666666,-17.194952506512085,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.333333333333332,-17.371605726274986,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,87.25806451612902,43.68737937284833,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.54838709677419,39.36065711235778,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.09677419354838,40.35527492863492,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,74.51612903225806,40.1080819735425,0.0,4.127107426538714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,72.25806451612902,33.8286308921188,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,70.96774193548387,33.45628492457764,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,69.19354838709677,33.23816302237865,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,62.41935483870969,38.731113564322584,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.93548387096776,31.711376634125298,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,60.80645161290323,32.341284052204614,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TiRex,60.483870967741936,31.37878712819341,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,59.51612903225807,29.889473184557,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +TS-ICL,58.70967741935483,35.91589487686446,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,57.74193548387097,32.627851253463945,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.096774193548384,37.31565282683812,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,56.774193548387096,30.96058630074824,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +CatBoost,48.87096774193548,30.455043900424116,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,48.79032258064516,30.066987483189834,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.225806451612904,28.910798192784526,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.29032258064515,29.84834988479378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.88709677419355,28.43040512442394,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,44.83870967741935,26.15800221608241,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +TFT,40.96774193548387,25.36909549957551,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,37.41935483870968,22.043936094093443,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +PatchTST,33.54838709677419,23.853686364116655,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.096774193548384,21.286621636178083,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,29.838709677419356,20.242779035445857,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,25.0,2.308819055034983,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.870967741935484,14.792523584936335,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.0,-17.194952506512085,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.032258064516128,-17.371605726274986,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 08daf77b41233419a068d7af12a44352e46e9547..8a0ace9616949d32098ca751bf9a9bfb16e73c1f 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,88.33333333333331,53.71802747297384,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,81.66666666666669,49.69769702480558,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.66666666666667,51.11726173711795,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.16666666666666,46.0701139374327,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,77.99999999999999,45.923366881561044,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.66666666666666,45.509009126528746,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,67.66666666666666,43.986765819509955,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.49999999999999,49.23132961740353,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,65.49999999999999,43.41265479231578,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.83333333333332,43.975850949879494,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.83333333333334,47.04449605725086,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.16666666666666,42.985101438365106,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.16666666666668,47.58870581866148,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,58.666666666666664,43.47379498879312,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,58.333333333333336,41.770607055033416,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.416666666666664,41.66951867743352,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.0,41.168665124101466,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.416666666666664,40.39825907941946,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -TFT,43.916666666666664,35.25719900873755,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,39.50000000000001,34.960543144337095,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.5,37.62388936758738,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,36.25000000000001,30.866627409785742,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,35.333333333333336,28.07755146139175,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,33.66666666666667,31.41463828851714,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -CatBoost,29.499999999999993,28.408790986693145,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,26.99999999999999,23.985315488022508,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.666666666666664,-9.388091327894731,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,17.499999999999996,8.467204297422992,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.500000000000002,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.166666666666664,-36.92812112198962,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.5,-36.00664557240114,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,87.90322580645162,53.71802747297384,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,80.80645161290323,49.69769702480558,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.80645161290322,51.11726173711795,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,78.70967741935485,50.84443097221823,0.0,4.127107426538714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.06451612903226,46.0701139374327,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,76.7741935483871,45.923366881561044,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,74.35483870967742,45.509009126528746,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.77419354838709,43.986765819509955,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.48387096774194,49.23132961740353,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,64.03225806451613,43.41265479231578,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.74193548387097,43.975850949879494,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.322580645161295,47.04449605725086,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,59.193548387096776,42.985101438365106,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.06451612903226,47.58870581866148,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,57.25806451612904,43.47379498879312,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,57.25806451612904,41.770607055033416,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.04838709677419,41.66951867743352,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,50.806451612903224,41.168665124101466,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.306451612903224,40.39825907941946,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +TFT,42.66129032258065,35.25719900873755,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.54838709677419,34.960543144337095,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.45161290322581,37.62388936758738,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.40322580645161,30.866627409785742,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,34.67741935483871,28.07755146139175,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,33.064516129032256,31.41463828851714,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +CatBoost,28.548387096774192,28.408790986693145,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.129032258064516,23.985315488022508,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,24.193548387096776,-9.388091327894731,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,17.096774193548388,8.467204297422992,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.161290322580646,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.903225806451614,-36.92812112198962,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.451612903225806,-36.00664557240114,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 8db39adddd516917efac1d5de46762878d44eacd..ce5bcead59983a571e5defc10b9351161df2b5ca 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.8333333333333,49.767642085552076,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.83333333333333,44.381624128298924,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,74.5,40.5443136269659,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.16666666666667,40.59545232120661,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,74.16666666666666,46.42945599946328,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,70.83333333333333,39.35647757871554,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,66.0,37.79774120616134,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,65.0,45.35245906888268,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.33333333333331,43.80144484440236,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.33333333333332,37.92043843564766,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.0,40.41953809890503,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,58.666666666666664,36.44667265137919,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,57.833333333333336,36.45959491236115,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.16666666666666,35.839403979765414,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -citras-fm,55.66666666666668,37.38712875476191,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.83333333333333,34.646634616614506,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,50.416666666666664,34.00276523407868,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.41666666666667,32.04345534981628,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,44.83333333333333,32.95419144870776,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -TFT,43.33333333333333,30.29729199130888,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.33333333333333,32.562191014123485,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,41.66666666666667,28.35776598037154,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,37.66666666666667,31.31052759701759,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,37.00000000000001,26.82155106405505,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,34.0,22.965967222391914,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -DeepAR,31.833333333333343,23.8323881195716,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.83333333333333,11.232208577032987,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.33333333333333,18.48735923310082,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.499999999999998,-7.33838516088694,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.166666666666666,-6.944317709784564,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.499999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.51612903225806,49.767642085552076,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.6774193548387,44.381624128298924,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,74.19354838709677,44.98526729836365,0.0,4.127107426538714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,73.87096774193549,40.5443136269659,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.54838709677419,40.59545232120661,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,73.38709677419355,46.42945599946328,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,70.16129032258065,39.35647757871554,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,65.16129032258064,37.79774120616134,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,64.19354838709678,45.35245906888268,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.58064516129031,43.80144484440236,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.29032258064516,37.92043843564766,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TS-ICL,59.83870967741935,40.41953809890503,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,57.74193548387097,36.44667265137919,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,56.935483870967744,36.45959491236115,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,56.12903225806451,35.839403979765414,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +citras-fm,54.19354838709678,37.38712875476191,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,49.83870967741935,34.646634616614506,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.112903225806456,34.00276523407868,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.40322580645161,32.04345534981628,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,44.19354838709677,32.95419144870776,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.41935483870968,32.562191014123485,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,42.41935483870967,30.29729199130888,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,41.12903225806452,28.35776598037154,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,36.77419354838709,31.31052759701759,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.29032258064516,26.82155106405505,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,33.387096774193544,22.965967222391914,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,30.96774193548388,23.8323881195716,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.387096774193548,11.232208577032987,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,22.74193548387097,18.48735923310082,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.258064516129034,-7.33838516088694,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.096774193548388,-6.944317709784564,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.161290322580646,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 6da6ee4c8dd105f435ae9f5f24d6eff89b21d47e..304d524a1c497a42ae58a2eceab33d0a6288457f 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.00000000000001,59.7116539867291,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,79.33333333333333,53.12994473655765,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,79.00000000000001,53.33541041660834,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.83333333333334,55.12837085085486,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.83333333333333,57.23698536593628,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.83333333333331,52.023804419022525,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.5,56.3528443902342,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,68.16666666666667,50.71609002659482,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,64.99999999999999,52.24235767766595,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,64.5,49.10426511916396,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.49999999999999,50.01612769240715,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.33333333333334,54.56497559001957,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.5,48.587775840553334,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 -FlowState,58.50000000000001,48.92632727441107,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 -citras-fm,58.00000000000001,49.13763388354283,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,53.99999999999999,47.48384541528413,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,53.41666666666666,46.50676313572143,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.416666666666664,45.163123321951495,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 -TFT,43.916666666666664,41.22673219213343,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,40.833333333333336,43.384946426947444,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,35.833333333333336,41.57117437735931,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.333333333333336,34.59301612432139,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.833333333333336,30.64976777590186,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 -DeepAR,34.416666666666664,35.666728318741306,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,30.333333333333336,33.32014356092802,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,28.499999999999996,28.748806501732805,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.499999999999993,-0.6607124076495996,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,16.833333333333332,9.363488940302078,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.333333333333334,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,7.166666666666669,-33.756820931714884,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.5,-32.08602565701002,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.70967741935485,59.7116539867291,0.0,7.211859008445545,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.54838709677419,53.12994473655765,0.0,5.735699410595238,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,78.06451612903226,56.24965083027072,0.0,4.127107426538714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,78.06451612903226,53.33541041660834,0.0,2.700883252291667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.9032258064516,57.23698536593628,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.74193548387098,55.12837085085486,0.0,0.3680488405184875,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.70967741935485,52.023804419022525,0.0,1.0987693,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,67.4193548387097,50.71609002659482,0.0,0.37732213339285714,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.25806451612904,56.3528443902342,0.0,319.0226225101019,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,63.54838709677419,52.24235767766595,0.0,3.2389955297777693,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,63.38709677419354,49.10426511916396,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.38709677419354,50.01612769240715,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.129032258064505,54.56497559001957,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,58.54838709677419,48.587775840553334,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +FlowState,57.58064516129032,48.92632727441107,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +citras-fm,56.774193548387096,49.13763388354283,0.0,0.9598791242924996,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,52.74193548387096,47.48384541528413,0.0,0.3229108467857143,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.85483870967742,46.50676313572143,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,47.98387096774193,45.163123321951495,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +TFT,42.82258064516128,41.22673219213343,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,39.838709677419345,43.384946426947444,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,34.83870967741935,41.57117437735931,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,34.67741935483871,34.59301612432139,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,34.193548387096776,30.64976777590186,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,33.62903225806452,35.666728318741306,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,29.354838709677423,33.32014356092802,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,27.580645161290324,28.748806501732805,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,22.903225806451612,-0.6607124076495996,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,16.451612903225804,9.363488940302078,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.967741935483872,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,6.935483870967743,-33.756820931714884,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.451612903225806,-32.08602565701002,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv index dc9120fc2c1b82e2475d36244edfb5ea05e3e5b8..3d43b20b05c93690f5ced477e5616237dbeac8bf 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -3,288 +3,288 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.056,0.003,0.122 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,0.011,0.15 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.149,0.066,0.25 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,-0.002,0.121 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.154,0.069,0.252 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.068,0.26 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.081,0.009,0.155 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.179,0.088,0.287 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.121,0.046,0.201 -TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.082,0.272 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.175,0.088,0.279 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.164,0.081,0.256 +TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.082,0.272 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.121,0.046,0.201 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.102,0.023,0.19 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.197,0.103,0.302 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.184,0.094,0.291 +TimesFM-3,citras-fm,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.164,0.081,0.256 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.122,0.314 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.348,0.524 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.059,-0.139,-0.003 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.016,-0.041,0.079 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.099,0.023,0.183 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.004,-0.04,0.044 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.104,0.031,0.188 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.107,0.029,0.195 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.028,0.076 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.131,0.053,0.212 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.069,0.017,0.122 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.039,0.207 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.127,0.047,0.212 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.115,0.048,0.184 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.039,0.207 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.069,0.017,0.122 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.048,-0.004,0.102 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.149,0.066,0.235 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.052,0.224 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.115,0.048,0.184 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.095,0.241 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.476 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.176,-0.011 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.017,-0.085,0.04 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.084,-0.006,0.178 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.012,-0.072,0.042 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.089,0.007,0.18 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.092,0.009,0.184 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.09,0.092 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.116,0.045,0.199 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.054,-0.019,0.117 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.104,0.011,0.2 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.036,0.196 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.1,0.046,0.165 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.104,0.011,0.2 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.054,-0.019,0.117 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.033,-0.044,0.1 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.135,0.023,0.242 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.043,0.207 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.1,0.046,0.165 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.153,0.079,0.233 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.306,0.479 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.175,-0.333,-0.071 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.109,-0.224,-0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.091,-0.216,0.006 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.105,-0.217,-0.013 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.004,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,-0.005,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.449,0.85,-0.08,-0.24,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.036,0.002,0.079 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.164,0.07 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.022,-0.003,0.047 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.031,0.005,0.058 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.018,-0.035,0.07 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.022,-0.003,0.047 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.164,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.056,-0.207,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.056,-0.003,0.129 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.042,0.009,0.074 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.018,-0.035,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.127 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.338,0.256,0.42 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.064,-0.138,0.002 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.004,-0.046,0.038 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.012,-0.044,0.067 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.095,0.013,0.178 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.1,0.02,0.185 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.103,0.019,0.192 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.047,0.085 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.127,0.043,0.213 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.123,0.041,0.206 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.115,0.028,0.207 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.065,0.0,0.128 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.045,-0.027,0.109 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.146,0.045,0.246 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.111,0.047,0.179 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.163,0.08,0.25 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.313,0.485 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.182,-0.337,-0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.116,-0.232,-0.032 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.097,-0.22,-0.007 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.017,0.004 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.111,-0.227,-0.02 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.01,0.015 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.086,-0.243,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.003,0.069 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.038,-0.168,0.063 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.011,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.026,0.0,0.047 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.039,0.062 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.011,0.044 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.038,-0.168,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.062,-0.208,0.047 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.012,0.124 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.036,0.004,0.067 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.039,0.062 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.07,0.026,0.121 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.335,0.254,0.415 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.186,-0.351,-0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.119,-0.242,-0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.101,-0.225,-0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.024,0.005 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.115,-0.237,-0.019 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.015,0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.349,0.75,-0.09,-0.251,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.004,0.063 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.042,-0.174,0.058 -Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.01,0.037 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.022,0.006,0.039 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.04,0.057 +Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.01,0.037 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.042,-0.174,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.065,-0.216,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.048,-0.022,0.125 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.033,0.009,0.056 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.04,0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.067,0.024,0.118 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.332,0.25,0.413 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.088,-0.184,-0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.027,-0.082,0.027 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.102,0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.551,0.074,-0.041,0.194 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.093,0.045 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.079,-0.034,0.196 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.651,0.082,-0.036,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.107,-0.008,0.225 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.044,-0.027,0.118 -TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.094,-0.024,0.216 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.701,0.103,-0.014,0.223 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.091,-0.012,0.201 +TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.094,-0.024,0.216 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.044,-0.027,0.118 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.03,0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.126,0.014,0.242 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.113,-0.01,0.236 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.091,-0.012,0.201 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.144,0.034,0.25 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.3,0.469 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.219,-0.402,-0.096 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.15,-0.269,-0.056 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.132,-0.248,-0.047 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.037,-0.086,-0.002 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.146,-0.27,-0.044 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.031,-0.074,0.003 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.067,0.004 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.12,-0.29,0.008 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.071,-0.207,0.03 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.041,0.027 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.019,-0.061,0.015 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.071,-0.207,0.03 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.095,-0.237,0.018 TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.066,0.094 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.025,0.036 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.019,-0.061,0.015 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.01,0.074 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.314,0.237,0.395 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.138,-0.252,-0.048 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.074,-0.139,-0.017 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.057,-0.133,0.019 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.076,0.141 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.037,-0.067,0.144 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.04,-0.062,0.149 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.046,-0.134,0.027 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.066,-0.031,0.172 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.053,-0.053,0.166 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.062,-0.032,0.167 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.049,-0.04,0.143 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.082,0.034 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.086,-0.041,0.202 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.072,-0.026,0.178 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.105,0.016,0.2 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.263,0.449 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.201,-0.373,-0.089 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.261,-0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.116,-0.25,-0.011 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.049,0.003 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.017,-0.046,0.011 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.038,0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.104,-0.275,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.056,-0.199,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.009,-0.024,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.065,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.079,-0.238,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.399,0.775,0.035,-0.028,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.02,-0.009,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.242,0.409 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.213,-0.387,-0.097 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.145,-0.268,-0.05 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.244,-0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.032,-0.062,-0.005 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.14,-0.26,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.026,-0.049,-0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.023,-0.04,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.299,0.7,-0.115,-0.288,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.028,0.039 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.066,-0.2,0.031 -Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.009,-0.045,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.014,-0.061,0.034 +Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.009,-0.045,0.023 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.066,-0.2,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.089,-0.249,0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.026,-0.055,0.108 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.011,-0.005,0.028 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.014,-0.061,0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.046,-0.001,0.098 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.317,0.232,0.406 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.196,-0.344,-0.088 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.13,-0.226,-0.05 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.111,-0.198,-0.048 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.075,0.034 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.012,-0.066,0.037 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.06,0.038 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.1,-0.252,0.012 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.018,-0.016,0.058 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.051,-0.167,0.039 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.051,0.061 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.035,0.058 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.075,-0.203,0.02 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.039,-0.052,0.12 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.024,-0.021,0.071 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.02,0.101 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.245,0.41 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.201,-0.373,-0.089 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.261,-0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.116,-0.25,-0.011 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.049,0.003 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.13,-0.261,-0.028 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.017,-0.046,0.011 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.038,0.01 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.104,-0.275,0.023 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.009,-0.024,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.056,-0.199,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.079,-0.238,0.036 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.399,0.775,0.035,-0.028,0.11 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.065,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.242,0.409 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.138,-0.252,-0.048 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.074,-0.139,-0.017 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.057,-0.133,0.019 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.076,0.141 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.07,-0.146,-0.0 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.037,-0.067,0.144 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.04,-0.062,0.149 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.046,-0.134,0.027 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.066,-0.031,0.172 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.062,-0.032,0.167 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.053,-0.053,0.166 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.082,0.034 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.086,-0.041,0.202 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.049,-0.04,0.143 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.105,0.016,0.2 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.263,0.449 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.113,-0.234,-0.024 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.051,-0.113,0.004 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.034,-0.111,0.042 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.053,-0.059,0.171 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.047,-0.122,0.026 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.058,-0.049,0.172 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.061,-0.046,0.178 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.023,-0.09,0.029 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.087,-0.019,0.192 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.035,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.192 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.082,-0.022,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.021,0.169 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.192 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.035,0.076 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.106,-0.02,0.219 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.092,-0.017,0.206 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.021,0.169 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.024,0.224 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.279,0.458 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.245,-0.432,-0.115 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.175,-0.307,-0.07 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.156,-0.32,-0.023 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.06,-0.148,0.003 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.171,-0.326,-0.047 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.142,0.012 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.05,-0.143,0.021 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.144,-0.319,-0.014 FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.104,0.062 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.094,-0.254,0.04 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.601,-0.036,-0.124,0.028 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.027,-0.121,0.052 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.041,-0.136,0.049 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.601,-0.036,-0.124,0.028 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.094,-0.254,0.04 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.118,-0.28,0.02 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.375,0.75,-0.016,-0.114,0.064 +FlowState,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.041,-0.136,0.049 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.02,-0.037,0.088 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.299,0.239,0.36 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.226,-0.41,-0.104 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.158,-0.289,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.139,-0.26,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.043,-0.08,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.038,-0.072,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.034,-0.06,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.127,-0.31,0.009 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.037,0.024 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.077,-0.217,0.025 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.02,-0.054,0.009 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.011,-0.029,0.005 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.025,-0.077,0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.101,-0.259,0.017 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.25,0.625,0.015,-0.068,0.102 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.035,-0.009,0.085 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.227,0.399 +citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.196,-0.344,-0.088 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.13,-0.226,-0.05 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.111,-0.198,-0.048 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.075,0.034 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.125,-0.218,-0.05 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.012,-0.066,0.037 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.06,0.038 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.1,-0.252,0.012 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.018,-0.016,0.058 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.013,-0.035,0.058 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.051,0.061 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.051,-0.167,0.039 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.075,-0.203,0.02 +citras-fm,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.039,-0.052,0.12 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.02,0.101 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.245,0.41 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.271,-0.458,-0.139 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.317,-0.105 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.18,-0.303,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.082,-0.146,-0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.195,-0.332,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.076,-0.138,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.072,-0.134,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.168,-0.334,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.08,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.117,-0.25,-0.016 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.048,-0.108,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.062,-0.112,-0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.117,-0.25,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.142,-0.288,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.021,-0.097,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.037,-0.093,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.062,-0.112,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.284,0.225,0.352 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-1.101,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.909,-0.471 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.918,-0.441 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.511,-0.724,-0.345 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.67,-0.941,-0.455 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.503,-0.709,-0.34 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.498,-0.704,-0.333 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.632,-0.882,-0.428 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.457,-0.653,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.815,-0.356 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.692,-0.32 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.464,-0.683,-0.302 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.484,-0.695,-0.324 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.692,-0.32 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.815,-0.356 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.845,-0.388 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.426,-0.562,-0.314 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.448,-0.664,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.484,-0.695,-0.324 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.397,-0.544,-0.29 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv index 2082a9e6181aaa3765300352c0d13a6a0d8c143a..cb066d365458d17d48ca97a791544e199ff347bd 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -3,288 +3,288 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.053,-0.0,0.121 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.08,0.013,0.165 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.142,0.061,0.241 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.058,0.002,0.118 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.144,0.062,0.244 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.151,0.064,0.255 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.088,0.016,0.165 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.182,0.089,0.291 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.174,0.086,0.278 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.051,0.212 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.182,0.089,0.291 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.174,0.089,0.278 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.051,0.212 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.117,0.033,0.207 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.181,0.095,0.277 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.188,0.096,0.301 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.205,0.114,0.306 +TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.181,0.095,0.277 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.223,0.133,0.332 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.449,0.617 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.056,-0.138,0.0 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.028,-0.029,0.094 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.094,0.021,0.174 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.006,-0.032,0.04 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.096,0.024,0.176 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.103,0.026,0.189 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.016,0.086 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.06,0.217 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.127,0.049,0.211 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.077,0.025,0.132 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.06,0.217 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.127,0.049,0.215 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.077,0.025,0.132 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.067,0.012,0.124 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.135,0.067,0.208 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.056,0.233 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.161,0.079,0.242 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.135,0.067,0.208 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.104,0.255 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.425,0.58 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.087,-0.198,-0.013 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.029,-0.104,0.028 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.067,-0.025,0.161 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.023,-0.091,0.036 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,-0.02,0.161 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.077,-0.014,0.17 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.009,-0.1,0.092 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.111,0.038,0.193 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,0.021,0.189 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.05,-0.022,0.114 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.111,0.038,0.193 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.102,0.003,0.201 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.05,-0.022,0.114 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.04,0.117 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.056,0.172 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.118,0.036,0.207 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.017,0.24 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.056,0.172 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.156,0.088,0.234 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.497,0.408,0.575 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.165,-0.317,-0.064 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.103,-0.21,-0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.072,-0.192,0.025 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.097,-0.21,-0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.007,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.01,-0.003,0.024 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.062,-0.211,0.05 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,0.008,0.1 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.066 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.018,-0.15,0.081 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,0.008,0.1 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.037,0.012,0.064 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.018,-0.15,0.081 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.029,-0.18,0.08 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.046,-0.013,0.111 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.054,0.021,0.093 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,0.015,0.142 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.046,-0.013,0.111 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.04,0.161 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.377,0.537 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.062,-0.133,-0.002 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.006,-0.042,0.031 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.037,0.084 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.089,0.009,0.173 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.091,0.012,0.175 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.098,0.016,0.182 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.032,-0.033,0.093 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.122,0.043,0.206 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.131,0.047,0.217 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.123,0.037,0.216 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.011,0.13 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.062,-0.008,0.126 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.138,0.052,0.229 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.13,0.063,0.204 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.175,0.091,0.261 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.419,0.587 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.168,-0.323,-0.066 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.106,-0.214,-0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.075,-0.192,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.012,0.006 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.1,-0.211,-0.012 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.008,-0.005,0.019 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.065,-0.217,0.047 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.008,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.035,0.011,0.059 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.148,0.078 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.008,0.093 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.035,0.008,0.064 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.148,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.032,-0.179,0.075 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,-0.015,0.104 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.052,0.019,0.086 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.071,0.011,0.141 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,-0.015,0.104 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.093,0.041,0.154 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.376,0.536 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.177,-0.342,-0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.115,-0.232,-0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.083,-0.205,0.014 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.01,-0.025,0.002 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.109,-0.223,-0.016 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.008,-0.02,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.073,-0.226,0.043 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.037,-0.001,0.082 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.027,0.011,0.044 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.029,-0.162,0.071 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.037,-0.001,0.082 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.027,-0.001,0.055 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.029,-0.162,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.04,-0.196,0.07 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.036,-0.02,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.044,0.019,0.072 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.064,-0.001,0.137 +Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.036,-0.02,0.097 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.086,0.03,0.148 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.368,0.535 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.097,-0.198,-0.017 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.094,0.015 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.009,-0.102,0.091 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.059,-0.052,0.174 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.033,-0.103,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.061,-0.049,0.178 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.068,-0.045,0.185 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.103,-0.011,0.219 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.094,-0.021,0.216 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,-0.032,0.117 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.103,-0.011,0.219 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.094,-0.022,0.209 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,-0.032,0.117 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.031,-0.018,0.09 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.004,0.21 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.014,0.232 -TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.128,0.021,0.24 +TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.004,0.21 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.148,0.038,0.257 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.398,0.572 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.223,-0.411,-0.098 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.277,-0.063 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.125,-0.239,-0.039 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,-0.008 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.046,-0.102,-0.008 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.038,-0.089,0.001 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.115,-0.28,0.011 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.01,-0.054,0.028 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.069,-0.199,0.031 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.066,0.03 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.223,0.037 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.001,-0.043,0.034 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.031,0.042 -TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,-0.064,0.099 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.085 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.509 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.21,-0.385,-0.094 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.146,-0.267,-0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.114,-0.232,-0.022 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.039,-0.071,-0.012 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.14,-0.26,-0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.036,-0.062,-0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.028,-0.047,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.103,-0.275,0.021 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.01,-0.028,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.058,-0.191,0.038 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.01,-0.028,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.0,-0.041,0.034 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.058,-0.191,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.069,-0.227,0.049 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.045,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,0.003,0.034 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.038,-0.043,0.118 +Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.045,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.06,0.006,0.117 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.522 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.269,-0.054 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.083,-0.151,-0.025 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.053,-0.129,0.021 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.088,0.13 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.085,0.129 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.028,-0.077,0.139 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.043,-0.132,0.031 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.064,-0.032,0.166 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.055,-0.04,0.161 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.055,-0.054,0.164 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.01,-0.073,0.055 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,-0.02,0.154 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.071,-0.027,0.178 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.091,-0.037,0.206 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.112,0.024,0.205 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.47,0.372,0.556 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.223,-0.411,-0.098 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.277,-0.063 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.125,-0.239,-0.039 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,-0.008 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.151,-0.277,-0.049 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.046,-0.102,-0.008 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.038,-0.089,0.001 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.115,-0.28,0.011 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.01,-0.054,0.028 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.066,0.03 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.069,-0.199,0.031 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.223,0.037 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.031,0.042 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.001,-0.043,0.034 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.085 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.509 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.21,-0.384,-0.098 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.146,-0.274,-0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.114,-0.252,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.039,-0.069,-0.012 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.14,-0.275,-0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.036,-0.068,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.028,-0.058,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.104,-0.264,0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.031,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.0,-0.036,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.058,-0.197,0.052 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.031,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.058,-0.197,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.069,-0.226,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.061,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.017,-0.018,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.038,-0.018,0.103 +TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.009,-0.061,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.06,0.009,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.354,0.52 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.269,-0.054 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.083,-0.151,-0.025 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.053,-0.129,0.021 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.018,-0.088,0.13 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.149,-0.011 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.085,0.129 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.028,-0.077,0.139 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.043,-0.132,0.031 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.055,-0.04,0.161 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.064,-0.032,0.166 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.055,-0.054,0.164 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.01,-0.073,0.055 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.071,-0.027,0.178 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,-0.02,0.154 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.112,0.024,0.205 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.47,0.372,0.556 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.132,-0.261,-0.035 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.072,-0.141,-0.012 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.132,0.039 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.028,-0.087,0.153 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.066,-0.145,0.007 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.031,-0.082,0.152 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.038,-0.076,0.164 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.032,-0.098,0.018 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.182 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.064,-0.052,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.01,-0.059,0.068 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.182 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.064,-0.053,0.185 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.01,-0.059,0.068 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.026,0.174 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.081,-0.038,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.1,-0.026,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.026,0.174 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.121,0.01,0.225 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.369,0.563 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.221,-0.382,-0.105 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.156,-0.262,-0.072 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.124,-0.207,-0.06 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.048,-0.125,0.012 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.116,0.014 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.037,-0.108,0.02 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.266,0.004 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.001,-0.035,0.041 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.07,0.043 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.183,0.019 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.085,0.057 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.21,0.025 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.047,0.062 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.08,0.117 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.052,0.014,0.094 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.344,0.513 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.232,-0.43,-0.106 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.166,-0.304,-0.06 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.133,-0.261,-0.038 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.057,-0.103,-0.022 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.16,-0.298,-0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.054,-0.094,-0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.046,-0.078,-0.02 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.123,-0.303,0.014 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.03 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.018,-0.036,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.077,-0.216,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.03 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.018,-0.061,0.018 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.077,-0.216,0.026 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.088,-0.249,0.036 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.066,0.045 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,0.021,-0.067,0.105 +Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.066,0.045 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.043,-0.009,0.098 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.339,0.517 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.258,-0.441,-0.128 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.319,-0.086 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.316,-0.017 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.08,-0.165,-0.015 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.077,-0.164,-0.011 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.159,0.001 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.147,-0.315,-0.021 -FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.029,-0.11,0.06 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.04,-0.134,0.041 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.1,-0.259,0.036 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.039,-0.115,0.018 -FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.111,-0.282,0.025 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.133,0.074 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.35,0.775,-0.021,-0.118,0.063 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.023,-0.039,0.107 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.347,0.483 +citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.221,-0.382,-0.105 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.156,-0.262,-0.072 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.124,-0.207,-0.06 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.048,-0.125,0.012 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.15,-0.256,-0.067 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.116,0.014 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.037,-0.108,0.02 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.266,0.004 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.009,-0.07,0.043 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.001,-0.035,0.041 +citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.009,-0.085,0.057 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.183,0.019 +citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.21,0.025 +citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.009,-0.047,0.062 +citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.052,0.014,0.094 +citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.344,0.513 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.288,-0.497,-0.153 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.117 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.185,-0.306,-0.096 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.192,-0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.354,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.102,-0.182,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.094,-0.173,-0.031 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.174,-0.345,-0.04 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.093,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.064,-0.133,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.126,-0.257,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.093,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.064,-0.137,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.126,-0.257,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.137,-0.29,-0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.054,-0.104,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.045,-0.109,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.024,-0.119,0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.054,-0.104,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.324,0.474 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.161,-1.612,-0.815 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.046,-1.382,-0.739 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.988,-1.351,-0.689 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.854,-1.162,-0.606 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.42,-0.721 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.156,-0.602 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.15,-0.581 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.97,-1.334,-0.661 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.038,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.091,-0.537 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.888,-1.254,-0.592 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.038,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.083,-0.548 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.888,-1.254,-0.592 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.908,-1.29,-0.584 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.053,-0.524 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.072,-0.514 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-0.936,-0.532 +Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.053,-0.524 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.902,-0.479 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 423417007d7caff5a1ff4c53aac938b026e8ffce..d2d628b3a98b6112a9fcc429866458a3ecee03fc 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -2,8 +2,9 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.154,0.056,0.266 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.155,0.051,0.272 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.097,-0.014,0.255 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.062,0.003,0.134 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.097,-0.014,0.255 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,-0.003,0.191 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.172,0.061,0.293 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.192,0.077,0.316 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.081,0.004,0.156 @@ -13,14 +14,14 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.191,0.078,0.313 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.21,0.079,0.351 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.209,0.113,0.311 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.095,0.348 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.198,0.078,0.329 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.146,0.382 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.386,0.593 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.183,-0.362,-0.059 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.001,-0.022,0.024 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.068,-0.218,0.067 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.109,-0.232,-0.019 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.068,-0.218,0.067 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.08,-0.204,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.02,-0.008,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.045,-0.004,0.103 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.087,-0.267,0.056 @@ -30,14 +31,14 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.043,0.003,0.09 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.001,0.156 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,-0.023,0.161 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,0.015,0.147 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.022,0.144 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.049,0.213 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.406,0.294,0.509 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.184,-0.373,-0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.001,-0.025,0.021 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.069,-0.209,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.11,-0.233,-0.013 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.069,-0.209,0.048 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.081,-0.202,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.02,-0.003,0.046 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.044,0.007,0.085 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.088,-0.279,0.061 @@ -47,31 +48,14 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.042,0.014,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.064,0.002,0.144 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.064,-0.039,0.166 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.022,0.133 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.05,-0.015,0.13 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.054,0.202 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.297,0.508 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.014 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.064,-0.072,0.179 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.05,0.173 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.038,-0.177,0.055 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.083,-0.029,0.189 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.106,0.015,0.201 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.018,-0.213,0.122 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.074,0.085 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.066,-0.029,0.175 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,-0.002,0.205 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,0.044,0.212 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,-0.063,0.263 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.133,0.048,0.227 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.112,0.049,0.181 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.182,0.093,0.27 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.34,0.534 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.066,-0.155,-0.003 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.098,0.018,0.188 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.099,0.013,0.189 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.058,0.15 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.058,0.15 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.026,-0.025,0.089 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.117,0.029,0.21 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.139,0.044,0.234 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.02,-0.059,0.089 @@ -81,14 +65,48 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.137,0.05,0.233 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.058,0.271 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.157,0.06,0.256 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.165,0.065,0.268 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.144,0.055,0.25 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.118,0.303 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.555 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.014 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.064,-0.072,0.179 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.05,0.173 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.038,-0.177,0.055 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.011,-0.099,0.069 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.083,-0.029,0.189 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.106,0.015,0.201 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.018,-0.213,0.122 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.01,-0.074,0.085 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.066,-0.029,0.175 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,-0.002,0.205 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,0.044,0.212 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,-0.063,0.263 +TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.133,0.048,0.227 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.182,0.093,0.27 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.34,0.534 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.095,-0.236,0.003 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.074,-0.02,0.17 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.075,-0.017,0.168 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.027,-0.098,0.025 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.011,-0.074,0.09 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.093,0.008,0.185 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.116,0.033,0.204 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.007,-0.136,0.087 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.052,0.09 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.077,-0.009,0.154 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.114,0.024,0.206 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.134,0.045,0.227 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.134,-0.008,0.26 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.053,0.236 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.101,0.277 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.45,0.348,0.537 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.207,-0.415,-0.065 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.021,-0.059,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.02,-0.048,0.003 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.09,-0.233,0.028 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.132,-0.266,-0.03 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.09,-0.233,0.028 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.102,-0.226,-0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.025,0.001,0.053 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.11,-0.306,0.048 @@ -98,14 +116,14 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.007,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.046,-0.002,0.111 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.046,-0.077,0.158 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.055,0.017,0.1 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.031,-0.033,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.108,0.042,0.182 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.394,0.283,0.498 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.238,-0.462,-0.084 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.047,-0.115,0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.046,-0.093,-0.007 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.118,-0.252,-0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.161,-0.305,-0.046 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.118,-0.252,-0.015 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.131,-0.257,-0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.026,-0.056,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.138,-0.36,0.029 @@ -115,14 +133,14 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.002,-0.036,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.021,-0.022,0.069 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.021,-0.121,0.144 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.031,0.007,0.058 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.007,-0.049,0.064 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.085,0.021,0.151 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.268,0.479 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.088,-0.184,-0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.08,-0.06,0.21 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.081,-0.065,0.218 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.017,-0.139,0.175 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.02,-0.098,0.055 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.017,-0.139,0.175 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.007,-0.096,0.12 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.099,-0.05,0.234 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.121,-0.029,0.265 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -132,14 +150,14 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.12,-0.025,0.262 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.14,-0.024,0.302 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.14,0.009,0.268 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.148,-0.005,0.297 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.127,-0.02,0.282 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.196,0.066,0.33 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.341,0.552 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.119,-0.332,0.005 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.054,-0.081,0.184 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.055,-0.061,0.18 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.093,0.069 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.049,-0.164,0.028 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.01,-0.093,0.069 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.099,0.049 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.073,-0.041,0.193 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.097,-0.006,0.206 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.028,-0.19,0.064 @@ -149,14 +167,14 @@ TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.095,-0.013,0.207 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.116,0.013,0.219 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.116,-0.067,0.252 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.021,0.233 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.102,0.02,0.2 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.173,0.079,0.266 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.522 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.186,-0.407,-0.041 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.16,0.14 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.149,0.134 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.212,0.028 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.112,-0.251,-0.009 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.212,0.028 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.083,-0.182,0.008 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.018,-0.119,0.152 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.042,-0.082,0.167 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.09,-0.264,0.013 @@ -166,14 +184,14 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.04,-0.097,0.169 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.063,-0.069,0.188 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.062,-0.136,0.222 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.051,0.189 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.048,-0.072,0.164 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.123,0.026,0.227 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.404,0.3,0.496 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.236,-0.455,-0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.045,-0.099,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.044,-0.082,-0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.257,0.002 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.159,-0.304,-0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.257,0.002 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.128,-0.26,-0.025 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.055,0.007 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.002,-0.032,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.136,-0.354,0.024 @@ -183,14 +201,14 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.02,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.023,-0.106,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.324,0.75,0.032,-0.008,0.078 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.009,-0.054,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.086,0.029,0.152 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.274,0.476 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.265,-0.542,-0.086 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.185,0.001 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.069,-0.168,-0.002 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.143,-0.269,-0.046 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.186,-0.372,-0.061 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.143,-0.269,-0.046 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.155,-0.294,-0.047 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.048,-0.125,0.002 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.074,0.022 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.163,-0.433,0.023 @@ -200,14 +218,14 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.085,0.019 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.0,-0.191,0.13 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.025,0.043 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.015,-0.062,0.022 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.005,0.127 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.364,0.252,0.462 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.265,-0.451,-0.128 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.07,-0.192,0.022 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.2,0.038 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.142,-0.358,0.059 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.186,-0.343,-0.063 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.142,-0.358,0.059 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.155,-0.352,0.008 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.048,-0.187,0.072 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.022,-0.169,0.108 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.163,-0.367,-0.009 @@ -217,14 +235,14 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.024,-0.145,0.096 FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.0,-0.149,0.16 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.01,-0.142,0.152 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.015,-0.156,0.147 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.474,0.85,0.065,-0.034,0.187 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.365,0.256,0.477 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.277,-0.533,-0.105 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.08,-0.173,-0.015 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.153,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.154,-0.293,-0.05 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.198,-0.366,-0.07 +Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.154,-0.293,-0.05 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.166,-0.309,-0.055 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.058,-0.111,-0.018 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.031,-0.061,-0.007 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.174,-0.423,0.005 @@ -234,31 +252,14 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.25,0.676,-0.034,-0.084,0.008 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.01,-0.044,0.025 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.01,-0.179,0.124 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.025,-0.088,0.032 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.374,0.776,0.056,-0.004,0.121 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.358,0.246,0.461 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.49,-0.085 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.169,0.022 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.053,-0.149,0.015 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.126,-0.221,-0.051 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.169,-0.333,-0.058 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.032,-0.112,0.032 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.007,-0.068,0.047 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.146,-0.393,0.02 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.114,-0.25,-0.02 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.051,-0.197,0.068 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.009,-0.075,0.051 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.015,-0.023,0.058 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.015,-0.172,0.135 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.033,0.081 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.024,0.136 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.374,0.273,0.465 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.618,-0.172 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.271,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.143,-0.253,-0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.222,-0.37,-0.103 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.434,-0.134 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.222,-0.37,-0.103 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.383,-0.112 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.121,-0.223,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.093,-0.178,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.244,-0.492,-0.07 @@ -268,14 +269,14 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.095,-0.179,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.145,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.325,0.15,0.526,-0.07,-0.23,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.224,0.626,-0.059,-0.138,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.158,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.32,0.239,0.401 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.991,-1.459,-0.629 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.683,-1.037,-0.417 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.032,-0.422 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.144,-0.516 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.867,-1.248,-0.559 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.144,-0.516 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.818,-1.159,-0.533 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.649,-0.992,-0.395 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.92,-0.366 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.83,-1.233,-0.517 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.907,-0.377 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.573,-0.859,-0.336 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.574,-0.911,-0.344 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.559,-0.857,-0.326 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.597,-0.868,-0.375 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.472,-0.669,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv index 70751d5ea7c82af023e3245eced896c705001b83..015519104a790ef527e63670d60e33b5586b1366 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -3,288 +3,288 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.14,0.047,0.249 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.137,0.034,0.251 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.009,0.26 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.079,-0.0,0.173 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.058,0.003,0.125 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.16,0.054,0.28 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.077,0.003,0.153 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.156,0.04,0.29 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.183,0.07,0.3 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.156,0.04,0.29 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.208,0.08,0.351 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.194,0.086,0.315 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.113,0.004,0.243 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.216,0.093,0.351 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.211,0.118,0.314 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.087,0.347 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.265,0.147,0.39 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.597,0.484,0.687 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.163,-0.332,-0.049 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.029,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.045,-0.195,0.093 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.071,-0.193,0.026 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.096,-0.209,-0.009 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.023,-0.008,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.074,-0.24,0.054 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.139,0.158 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.049,0.003,0.104 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.139,0.158 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,0.006,0.183 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.062,0.018,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.032,-0.188,0.092 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.021,0.173 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.082,-0.001,0.174 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.078,-0.003,0.184 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.145,0.065,0.242 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.414,0.624 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.158,-0.335,-0.035 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.018,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.04,-0.184,0.092 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.067,-0.185,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.091,-0.209,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.002,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.069,-0.248,0.069 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.13,0.153 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.096 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.13,0.153 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.083,0.012,0.178 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.066,0.028,0.112 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.027,-0.179,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.092,0.031,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,-0.009,0.183 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.083,0.009,0.176 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.149,0.071,0.239 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.42,0.625 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.114,-0.352,0.009 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.043,-0.103,0.163 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.038,-0.101,0.155 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.026,-0.136,0.062 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.049,-0.203,0.051 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.065,-0.057,0.173 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.028,-0.236,0.119 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.06,-0.04,0.164 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.09,-0.02,0.189 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.06,-0.04,0.164 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.118,0.038,0.204 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.102,-0.007,0.204 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.012,-0.081,0.089 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.127,0.035,0.226 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.121,-0.079,0.259 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.06,0.181 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.182,0.097,0.263 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.447,0.636 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.086,-0.209,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.067,-0.027,0.162 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.062,-0.028,0.156 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.025,-0.066,0.12 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.023,-0.085,0.022 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.088,0.005,0.176 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.002,-0.12,0.084 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.112,0.032,0.201 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.084,-0.004,0.166 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.14,0.044,0.24 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.125,0.036,0.212 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.037,-0.037,0.101 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.149,0.058,0.245 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.143,0.007,0.262 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.202,0.111,0.289 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.456,0.641 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.061,-0.143,-0.003 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.088,0.009,0.173 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.084,-0.003,0.173 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.047,-0.054,0.169 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.023,-0.023,0.078 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.109,0.022,0.203 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.053,0.084 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.009,0.216 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.132,0.041,0.231 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.009,0.216 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.056,0.281 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.144,0.056,0.239 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.059,-0.015,0.144 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.168,0.069,0.278 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.163,0.069,0.257 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.159,0.064,0.273 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.125,0.322 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.466,0.653 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.191,-0.389,-0.057 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.024,-0.064,0.007 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.067,0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.069,-0.21,0.054 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.097,-0.214,-0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.122,-0.254,-0.022 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.099,-0.29,0.05 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.005,-0.16,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.027,0.007,0.048 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.005,-0.16,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.002,0.133 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,0.003,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.449,0.85,-0.056,-0.215,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.067,0.027,0.121 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.061,-0.057,0.168 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.057,-0.013,0.14 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.053,0.206 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.52,0.403,0.617 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.083,-0.18,-0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.069,-0.057,0.194 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.065,-0.074,0.199 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.027,-0.136,0.191 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.002,-0.091,0.107 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.021,-0.091,0.051 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.09,-0.053,0.225 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.086,-0.009,0.224 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.114,-0.029,0.254 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.086,-0.009,0.224 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.142,-0.023,0.303 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.127,-0.011,0.265 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.039,-0.053,0.166 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.151,-0.005,0.305 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.145,0.024,0.264 -TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.142,-0.005,0.309 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.204,0.073,0.342 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.449,0.661 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.185,-0.408,-0.042 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.019,-0.188,0.122 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.181,0.115 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.064,-0.196,0.038 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.276,-0.009 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.005,-0.139,0.138 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.094,-0.288,0.009 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.099,0.154 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.068,0.185 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.045,-0.091,0.169 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.051,-0.132,0.016 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.057,0.193 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.065,-0.142,0.221 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.061,-0.052,0.171 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.129,0.032,0.23 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.617 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.223,-0.43,-0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.052,-0.116,-0.003 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.056,-0.106,-0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.098,-0.234,0.019 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.126,-0.251,-0.033 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.152,-0.3,-0.043 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.027,-0.051,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.129,-0.341,0.028 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.183,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.183,0.09 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.032,-0.023,0.096 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.025,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.085,-0.245,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,0.011,0.081 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.035,-0.101,0.153 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.031,-0.032,0.104 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.101,0.033,0.175 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.389,0.605 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.185,-0.408,-0.042 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.019,-0.188,0.122 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.181,0.115 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.064,-0.196,0.038 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.092,-0.199,0.004 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.276,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.005,-0.139,0.138 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.094,-0.288,0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.099,0.154 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.068,0.185 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.045,-0.091,0.169 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.051,-0.132,0.016 +TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.057,0.193 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.065,-0.142,0.221 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.129,0.032,0.23 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.617 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.263,-0.542,-0.087 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.223,-0.006 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.091,-0.216,-0.012 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.134,-0.256,-0.039 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.163,-0.317,-0.046 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.19,-0.391,-0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.061,-0.154,-0.002 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.166,-0.436,0.023 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.066,-0.227,0.064 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.022 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.066,-0.227,0.064 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.087,0.027 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.12,-0.274,-0.002 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.01,-0.027,0.045 TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.003,-0.203,0.131 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.001,-0.042,0.034 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.015,0.129 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.374,0.588 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.241,-0.46,-0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.066,-0.135,-0.018 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.071,-0.126,-0.029 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.114,-0.256,0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.142,-0.269,-0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.169,-0.315,-0.06 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.086,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.145,-0.361,0.011 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.047,-0.203,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.053,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.047,-0.203,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.028,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.1,-0.253,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.324,0.75,0.028,-0.02,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.021,-0.112,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.017,-0.053,0.09 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.088,0.032,0.151 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.386,0.596 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.128,-0.321,-0.004 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.031,-0.101,0.158 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.026,-0.097,0.152 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.013,-0.098,0.075 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.039,-0.112,0.036 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.062,-0.168,0.015 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.551,0.053,-0.063,0.177 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.199,0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.049,-0.016,0.117 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.078,-0.027,0.197 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.049,-0.016,0.117 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.107,0.002,0.215 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.091,-0.017,0.202 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.116,0.012,0.228 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.11,-0.061,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.107,0.02,0.202 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.171,0.073,0.264 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.433,0.636 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.276,-0.541,-0.103 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.208,-0.022 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.102,-0.196,-0.032 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.146,-0.292,-0.036 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.175,-0.324,-0.062 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.202,-0.386,-0.074 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.072,-0.137,-0.027 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.178,-0.44,0.005 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.077,-0.239,0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.088,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.077,-0.239,0.054 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.01,-0.047,0.027 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.25,0.676,-0.029,-0.085,0.02 Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.132,-0.295,-0.012 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.007,-0.188,0.13 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.074,0.05 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.062,-0.005,0.131 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.363,0.591 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.268,-0.459,-0.133 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.09,-0.21,0.001 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.094,-0.224,0.009 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.138,-0.35,0.073 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.167,-0.354,-0.007 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.194,-0.345,-0.074 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.065,-0.202,0.054 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.17,-0.358,-0.024 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.283,0.124 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.036,-0.181,0.092 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.283,0.124 FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.003,-0.15,0.169 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.022,-0.136,0.101 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.124,-0.319,0.057 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.007,-0.149,0.158 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.004,-0.153,0.168 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.069,-0.035,0.207 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.374,0.596 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.531,-0.096 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.085,-0.226,0.003 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.09,-0.214,-0.009 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.222,-0.064 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.189,-0.376,-0.068 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.06,-0.163,0.013 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.165,-0.448,0.005 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.065,-0.206,0.049 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.032,-0.116,0.031 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.001,-0.036,0.04 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.018,-0.098,0.05 -citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.119,-0.253,-0.02 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.053,0.069 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.004,-0.202,0.133 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.072,0.024,0.126 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.381,0.586 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.361,-0.64,-0.172 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.32,-0.07 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.175,-0.314,-0.077 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.222,-0.356,-0.107 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.253,-0.406,-0.125 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.282,-0.474,-0.143 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.143,-0.259,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.256,-0.519,-0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.148,-0.299,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.113,-0.212,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.148,-0.299,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.148,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.097,-0.178,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.207,-0.36,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.067,-0.151,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.074,-0.261,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.078,-0.144,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.356,0.542 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.482,-2.195,-0.938 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.134,-1.658,-0.708 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.666,-0.726 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.745,-0.808 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-1.789,-0.838 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.338,-1.884,-0.874 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.084,-1.61,-0.674 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.291,-1.947,-0.814 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.094,-1.61,-0.716 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.029,-1.533,-0.638 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.094,-1.61,-0.716 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.426,-0.596 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.001,-1.473,-0.629 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.201,-1.748,-0.763 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.446,-0.57 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.958,-1.477,-0.598 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.966,-1.417,-0.615 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.824,-1.184,-0.553 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv index 7c00f5a780359a4eef9db89bc6dd4ed99ca2224d..f6a06f3c22754a6cf8ba92d8cd9676ecaeacb7ee 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,Sundial-Base,LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.6967223499377394,0.6948579833,0.6822409568000001,0.6846123728,0.7098695815160712,0.689935194,0.7051491417,0.7187969112,0.7295309855000001,0.7287408966630626,0.793677643151081,0.7004368823,0.7420629047825577,0.7568653271,0.7579922997,0.723840339,0.7033446593,0.7033446593,0.8242286029,0.7138930444,0.8610694555,0.9168897756,0.8257395692,0.7336183213,0.8700823458,1.4293457268,0.9168897756,0.8021815134,0.9168897756,1.367085413,1.4150880996 -ETT_1D,1.3606384715686113,1.3413765406,1.3787860328,1.360545199,1.36279909482833,1.3591429885,1.360219481,1.3268087393,1.3611067531,1.3575338619066182,1.3578458981957091,1.4394103535,1.3468648594200343,1.3683723528,1.3947065684,1.377158803,1.3461045624,1.3461045624,1.484646319,1.4174248495,1.4351120194,1.4122431199,1.4872294951,1.5713644181,1.5628515494,1.4375543872,1.4311893597,1.4485203553,1.4915469769,1.4615227255,1.4930705467 -ETT_1H,1.0648078176565907,1.1259593459,1.1204467796,1.122678271,1.1020584482257614,1.1157883861,1.1219144676,1.1177931254,1.1239074864,1.0997728668799904,1.1738904930964569,1.1194544043,1.122282569347694,1.1127046988,1.1712822213,1.1424635969,1.1267224636,1.1267224636,1.2734627054,1.1439289261,1.2995570797,1.25185511,1.2013262258,1.1991486501,1.2305514028,1.6020946232000002,1.2616150048,1.2846906491,1.3227158902,1.7184141817,1.7823323361 -ETT_1W,2.7941718567537626,2.6985268972,2.6199424094,2.6699548659,2.653318956876155,2.6461028202,2.6378253434000003,2.6203818492,2.6215325734,2.650036368287977,2.644196438594287,2.6346020602,2.615573617371344,2.6380752207,2.7896417157,2.563194657,2.6260535626,2.6260535626,3.3055190246,2.7153947044,3.0028333129,2.687435829,3.0473440496,2.8755024749,2.9565073639,2.639318245,2.7471494,2.836818906,2.6201185675,2.6201185675,2.7818783778 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.9312832318522636,0.9599506578,0.9579830351,0.9578190652,0.9555184077055978,0.9648075817,0.9736365263,0.9691232132,0.9509504822,0.982046685730565,0.9438379691476998,0.9422797551,0.9874560313769576,1.0272610815,0.9654904198,1.0347277286,0.9859320353,0.9859320353,1.2016962021,0.9847669395,1.1816395787,0.9983198512,1.0402225391,1.1375366653,1.1992106287,1.0016712982,0.9888675351,1.0222727749,1.1753801193,2.1046903267,2.3737898199 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6936984677138734,0.7939256021000001,0.795350258,0.7872736520000001,0.8136396058150277,0.7860718165,0.8226133174,0.8196171969,0.7539313161000001,0.7909897629333148,0.8318402755938443,0.7993754614,0.8482035667358524,0.8717742443000001,0.8370969172,0.9197608815,0.9188719384,0.9188719384,0.915332077,0.9012445092,0.8835096642,1.1788577267,0.8142373427,0.8612672879000001,0.8981771386,1.6371768884,1.2962678389,1.1797622797,1.3516779896,1.7163837436,1.9650972805 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6952490626509273,0.6812013944,0.7149303517000001,0.6889477042000001,0.6980924220035479,0.6969426203,0.6838622591,0.6919744544,0.7344527311,0.7902482823778453,0.8836114418496782,0.7500733656,0.8852135969472826,0.6997103049000001,0.7546823776,0.6934857939,0.8058940049000001,0.8058940049000001,0.8566762556,0.7671902281,0.8686562835,0.9579580065,0.7001922191000001,0.7610540434,0.6955110819,0.9723147051,0.9670797246,0.9937342142,0.8255932623000001,1.0149350736,1.17225325 -M_DENSE_1D,0.7859314897622236,0.7721472947,0.9109927491,0.8865839595,0.9410791159552512,0.9041932079,1.0025138642,0.906568838,0.8575514752000001,0.9556994320490302,0.9191123276584352,0.8863101287,0.8987780479853281,1.0265246067,0.9337187833,1.0479700759,0.9249126478,0.9249126478,0.9083450871,0.8999893558000001,0.8778251039,1.0509325086,0.8542622858000001,1.153609221,1.1581361171,1.0868806446,1.1689597475,1.0771913074,1.3500254894,1.7292480127,1.7668414612 -M_DENSE_1H,0.6236332471871477,0.7132003566,0.7088544558000001,0.7190468239000001,0.7258552868601902,0.7194327349,0.7450523741,0.7118568045,0.6693472692,0.6841837844751575,0.7086907658337513,0.6932401261000001,0.7317594063334079,0.7538921314,0.8066497468,0.8808963281000001,0.7173406573000001,0.7173406573000001,0.7014697541,0.775167995,0.7210938459,1.1917704371,0.7150880822,0.7217462966,0.7204275549,1.4834949411,1.1833753259,1.4265921408,1.2398526625,2.9336598257,3.2462087096 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4993069753857816,0.4999875762,0.5014580092,0.5007707106,0.503288866620645,0.5007849306000001,0.5055042958,0.5028743388,0.5037458634,0.5055112952470355,0.5078754252599722,0.5064993039,0.5101628294679348,0.5100451422,0.5252377094,0.5087373921,0.5100343921,0.5100343921,0.5411960582,0.5133618160000001,0.5625857080000001,0.6992652749,0.5207171737,0.5126723942,0.5210514709,0.6812952232,0.6992652749,0.5704736669,0.6992652749,0.7537395673,0.7757872119 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4895549158087071,0.4878765611,0.4812890819,0.482373136,0.4864850316362479,0.4778644873,0.4855926557,0.498580982,0.5174781059,0.4953204970907447,0.4996925514889351,0.5317927987000001,0.5196991340357957,0.4937505277,0.5577744373,0.495501714,0.5054399825,0.5054399825,0.6910333031,0.6129421994,0.6701382322,0.5582147151,0.932408237,0.8237992834000001,0.6130439224,1.6334537313,0.6365009357,0.7816119684,0.6288121202,0.7531606591000001,0.8861734090000001 -australian_tourism,0.975933408032832,0.8548582992,0.9478427594,0.9714877728,0.9476627483401264,0.9754443766,1.0629594743,0.9757973312,0.9190089622,1.09333144374039,0.878514946676819,1.0798094778,0.9774632244815712,1.1326224117,0.8858826955,1.1731406372,1.1608053971,1.1674188048,1.0816787923,0.9146409764,1.0897352711,0.932305264,1.0028198148,1.0972140084,1.1526528545,0.9667110181,1.0124394957,1.04493495,1.0994521121,1.5829350532,1.7960279887 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3663002879317025,0.3841207818,0.3408859156,0.3609887926,0.4378117769132353,0.3528233163,0.3718131352,0.4680641032,0.4101674745,0.4859847898212607,0.4713277289196166,0.4735338011,0.4455885693617856,0.4697050836,0.4412852355,0.4234612798,0.4308821621,0.4308821621,0.5354548175,0.4647078621,0.5292632714000001,0.7567537453000001,0.7868411301,0.4593050754,0.7027408582,0.8231641039,0.7748607981000001,0.7957254012,1.0658712668,0.770715573,0.7758078121 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.3786379180671486,0.5169197944,0.5508818741,0.5829501848,0.773597142449272,0.6126677916000001,0.6669647305,0.7958699987000001,0.5787129565,0.7488129105520851,0.4638850239470942,0.4724046694,0.7893047890159931,0.7123202473,0.6759668751,0.7280379650000001,0.8001548601,0.8001548601,0.7576234547,0.4807818165,0.7530991442,0.8068916052,0.7415100462,0.4517902946,0.9601708627,0.8137417988000001,0.9163295651,0.8740253861,1.066667663,0.7577504477,0.9386117894 -boomlet_1062,0.6744198992396585,0.6776940987,0.6609747105,0.6606980044,0.6826954909881108,0.6615311338000001,0.6659740307,0.6804959719,0.6916399125,0.6772758673486732,0.6729176632873578,0.8459869381,0.7009528855934714,0.6694294923,0.6864428113000001,0.6681502327000001,0.7155932844,0.7110111917,0.9009499291,0.7574670104,0.983198758,1.001957498,0.6829491529,0.7766256129,0.7395954156,1.0502749743,0.9510023881,1.0704423845,0.9949683405,1.3078709214,1.4225120109 -boomlet_1209,0.7619805644623077,0.7987706683,0.6966365640000001,0.6990806608,0.8144836579258528,0.7058283912000001,0.7189732508000001,0.8520639528,0.817915323,0.8140312349456892,0.9085046653002344,0.8206509265,0.8237688106540798,0.7438108964,1.1329505801,0.7548459037,0.8596275977000001,0.8460080888,0.9742643589,0.8887982072,0.9927704971,1.0454166606,0.8449015717,0.8901775771,1.0758361408,1.182723008,1.0378800284,1.1056064011,1.182723008,1.0545734266,1.2621289082 -boomlet_1225,0.2301430900012656,0.2322508868,0.2253831627,0.2257014378,0.2324249468110782,0.2260180215,0.2279137051,0.23385127,0.2365234802,0.2390068041964935,0.2482808495726347,0.2608782244,0.2409160148742846,0.2292332053,0.2548827881,0.2319546529,0.2436207852,0.2540221929,0.2483559023,0.2531870103,0.255820597,0.2904167695,0.258063735,0.2349179014,0.2379781079,0.3006939878,0.2751876374,0.300311449,0.3736491911,0.3736491911,0.3806842404 -boomlet_1230,1.3308504002887582,1.3704917157,1.2606545329,1.2513427528,1.3392683100879688,1.2562088129,1.2731721241,1.3783150883,1.3669883474,1.3514133043633558,1.499230875085562,1.3560446132,1.3479829889439716,1.2914040369,1.6438639324,1.2886466565,1.4190498695,1.3475047975,1.3771614682,1.4532188179,1.4274055249,1.5513275427000002,1.4091302803,1.481031891,1.8334681089,1.7204862257,1.5864986165,1.5854205321,1.8986209596,1.5631970242,1.7478394787 -boomlet_1282,0.4818496403991621,0.5228616907,0.4949953975,0.4940530382,0.499666098560459,0.4809766906,0.5032166153000001,0.4966357076,0.4938256797,0.5235992023110694,0.5047759934413311,0.5263091029,0.5230375222620778,0.498044,0.4985242795,0.5044697129,0.5229602389,0.5646901433,0.7178772331000001,0.5169242862,0.7317596636,0.6397695785,0.5180741413000001,0.5027685914,0.5066337876,0.6889630608,0.5924898439,0.6909553108,0.8299193956,0.8299193956,0.8508297191 -boomlet_1487,0.4950756406004076,0.5106600397000001,0.4579588342,0.4604636434,0.5218629824429614,0.4625465232,0.4846863637,0.5187314203,0.5025569431,0.5230543905833583,0.5357046838055305,0.5050021535,0.5379139872189995,0.4821733648,0.603314758,0.5140178453,0.5276634616,0.5268262269,0.5296842807000001,0.5573472172,0.6314985567,0.6620511052,0.5979691349,0.6717577761,0.6117813544,0.6618622150000001,0.6561515256,0.6861485332,0.7188988305,0.7369858229,0.8583652224 -boomlet_1631,0.719282038289408,0.7130379666000001,0.6997154337,0.7015356460000001,0.7371722095464446,0.703163705,0.7194841727,0.7478094023,0.7223220364,0.7475077535429157,0.7786935302332815,0.7354042866,0.7544764970836776,0.7229964925,0.8506283431,0.7249658802000001,0.7328154062000001,0.7407561886,0.7840087741,0.7619771372,0.8647964118,0.7740257154,0.7814225241,0.7786794832,0.7848358986,0.7850787272,0.7906855409,0.7886353998000001,0.9935726646,0.8639891086,0.8923058217000001 -boomlet_1676,0.6908560000052855,0.7074172167,0.6699169469,0.6764797512,0.6973986358886518,0.6743446133000001,0.6840990988,0.7093011570000001,0.6981823925,0.7125712098565211,0.7339912071494414,0.719171338,0.7286748406082371,0.6909120682000001,0.941119625,0.6926736692000001,0.71281142,0.7192465271,0.7522987645,0.7138061614,0.7812367057,0.7494246952,0.7432737809000001,0.7490851966000001,0.7322209578000001,0.7609898904,0.7591052795000001,0.7772233416000001,0.9529052669,0.81987192,0.8566079838 -boomlet_1855,0.5288811681827544,0.5381849547,0.5145184302,0.5128522002,0.5362403104124752,0.514113728,0.5227952786,0.5278191197000001,0.5502667938,0.5366960613447518,0.6051056434432255,0.5614568998,0.5421797141841631,0.5279610563,0.6490616251,0.5273872371,0.5430454496,0.5502545492,0.6300995462,0.59756436,0.6443521790000001,0.7137233977,0.5882019439,0.6087498133,0.6601553614,0.7732640617000001,0.7334421188,0.7479719213,0.8339307568000001,0.6805939709000001,0.6861913698000001 -boomlet_1975,0.1479758426275519,0.1607432077,0.1085105687,0.1070662016,0.1653173377209592,0.1091500465,0.139129764,0.2344681773,0.2045403061,0.1723995941797383,0.3057768255460699,0.2030396724,0.1971310105590683,0.1496109643,0.2465433583,0.1731066392,0.2722386236,0.2157351987,0.3279616223,0.2358591523,0.5089229918,0.5885200843,0.1466542199,0.2365125104,0.5988035242,0.6992926383,0.6455594352,0.5697333183000001,0.9041727836,0.6991117243,0.7004387023 -boomlet_2187,0.8160031210612013,0.8118519659000001,0.7767280125,0.7761157425,0.8266596416546982,0.7753872854,0.7939046721,0.8085306332000001,0.8936367366,0.8105477930641307,0.948676925541869,0.8508444429,0.8334454751823456,0.8811612149,1.0001214827,0.8149521723,0.906991314,0.8784198422,0.9130007445,0.9507442206,0.9202249676,1.1813669206,0.8724280664,1.010583197,1.1750197869,1.2537471966,1.2812206596,1.2716040455,1.3439772561,1.1574962315,1.1700732508 -boomlet_285,0.3455560537899078,0.3587658623,0.3158490678,0.3171912154,0.3823857357509364,0.3221439734,0.3389889824,0.4007113978,0.4216519857,0.4006663241741303,0.4210275195145369,0.5568651654,0.4177673457875075,0.3605982928,0.4002584094,0.3682962451,0.4705093941,0.5250469045,0.5225346821,0.5605665968,0.4692106421,0.7526380616,0.4525853339,0.506879478,0.510662162,0.8132574198,0.7883015484,0.7305756429,1.248763342,1.248763342,1.279213524 -boomlet_619,0.4021973996926323,0.4234249126,0.3771200669,0.3787171506,0.4128062205392041,0.38259119,0.3916098008,0.4418338302,0.4363557109,0.4434426450438065,0.4300836368012588,0.689863012,0.4558095394668141,0.4028513106,0.4267055503,0.4108826152,0.4306276624,0.5940973906,0.6168268245,0.435636804,1.3661388609,1.0046773678,0.4094911687,0.4245417333,0.4107135092,1.0937660345,0.7170247035,1.0200015792,1.123557013,1.123557013,1.1484320661 -boomlet_772,0.3237737193250807,0.331309455,0.3106213898,0.3116732543,0.3396458390708813,0.3153004522,0.3239342816,0.3435360988,0.3429964059,0.3485566346633157,0.3542699813786648,0.409874632,0.362754039950615,0.3280438006,0.3626989978,0.338194603,0.3651670048,0.395616382,0.3866455226,0.3920487456,0.4043528583,0.5801758941,0.4066417931,0.3577082621,0.3805851509,0.6702469426000001,0.5361147753000001,0.6163309517000001,0.6290173238,0.6290173238,0.6468050230000001 -boomlet_963,0.8054213848804469,0.8390323132,0.8182268197,0.8196122673,0.8146820472774033,0.8230222503,0.8306712701000001,0.8276719302000001,0.8600331872,0.8413571943797802,0.9157018587749404,0.8562509823000001,0.8596144098930136,0.8246017838,0.8944246506,0.8394387670000001,0.8725943653,0.8956313018000001,1.0280335706,0.849173272,0.948977253,1.1173343953,0.907609144,0.8447978177000001,0.8697191168,1.2932431719,1.1099255265,1.1004606123,1.1186074152,1.1186074152,1.1367798387 -ecdc_ili,2.615164939349109,2.7551221016,2.9431670054,2.9542061828,2.6791186626779258,2.9977870968,2.9480610447,2.8841261467,2.6316220322,3.0196941806324715,2.9048747296854383,2.5805091261,2.876180453780843,3.0278162773,2.7527976977,3.0258995,2.9286752581,3.1427261127,2.6359504213,3.0367688213,2.657299556,4.3217167895,3.9105289156,3.2819381761,3.8844924376,4.5974303507,4.196380557,4.2528905671,4.1680850511,4.1680850511,4.3553339737 -entsoe_15T,0.6272567330955798,0.5846139379,0.569718461,0.5431857518000001,0.5650102084351702,0.5639128032,0.6201839279,0.5986061732,0.590316623,0.6384149767729699,0.7863095468387914,0.5955240132,0.6043646408848564,0.7465877723000001,0.5948239303,0.7510873579,0.5933312667,0.6061735158,0.9042372943,0.7577799507,0.8380750606,0.9314586877,0.6895044967,0.6513695576,0.9314586877,4.0070290377,0.9314586877,0.7298062907,0.9314586877,1.9045500173,2.054795932 -entsoe_1H,0.3967896972483514,0.5379602554,0.506635881,0.5236082079000001,0.5998621394629227,0.5260385524,0.5546733890000001,0.58538039,0.5848723984,0.5433724280115052,0.4866813449649518,0.6642019123,0.565084488,0.5917456396,0.5374125945,0.6434937263,0.5924217664,0.5564475511,0.6518687919,0.8117895189000001,0.5970910659,1.1146901489,0.7511157308,0.9665956021,0.7089755944,2.0475241329,1.1176425509,1.1626008296,1.1014887289,2.0553482057,2.1575810319 -entsoe_30T,0.6501347045926289,0.54381558,0.5318373326,0.5194053695,0.6265212724447536,0.5665103512,0.5513736822,0.6645923588,0.6957880429000001,0.5958136976133336,0.6941938566372617,0.6069293442,0.6462294849047346,0.6243758030000001,0.6344114167,0.6901045677000001,0.5973972914,0.6326216283,0.7535617677,0.7796412031000001,0.6559652231,1.05779406,0.7318349688,0.7141332243,0.6878794011,3.2738378913,1.2299298771,1.0040370922,1.2161815078,2.073335635,2.0462298002 -epf_be,0.6103234593515932,0.6470253268,0.6610861132,0.6515935809,0.6664771070064072,0.6364914123000001,0.6826692584,0.6743990432,0.6101898106,0.6012395475782755,0.6814597294522857,0.6999904159,0.6266718033132894,0.7042198580000001,0.6880825659,0.7241654255000001,0.6709379475,0.7272945514,0.7447461558,0.7222255864,0.8069993803000001,0.9814265937,0.8105043893,0.6918850356,0.7626864710000001,1.3929299654,1.0947820435,1.019365079,1.0270532223,1.3609414406,1.3744478756 -epf_de,0.612968303602045,0.6042262072,1.2370873614,1.2246197143,0.6103813594737576,1.3157466789,1.2518412727,1.2971030742,1.2798888006,0.7074737950289537,0.5606975009726158,1.237667145,0.7941170656292134,1.3271832988,0.5800212967,1.2874905998,1.2281781823,1.2655264374,1.092293938,1.3227461317,1.0961059598,1.3821005791,0.6564578669000001,0.5726050284,0.7567964518,1.7417113185000002,1.6231051649,1.4071982205,1.7085952976,1.7417238545,1.7695509328 -epf_fr,0.4165161063229227,0.4500649094,0.4906993318,0.4959833887,0.4339901028094799,0.4951128679,0.5358316805000001,0.5040405628,0.4906901879,0.4429248245850813,0.4743786134829068,0.4753843786,0.516455027,0.5301954839,0.4217844752,0.5498386051,0.5034595497000001,0.563837892,0.5789717952,0.5243569292,0.5540351793,0.7410271156,0.4932962165,0.4212014349,0.5154397984,0.9665291582,0.9888394091,0.8447495988,0.8501188696,1.1603445451,1.1771067551 -epf_np,0.9395162921473286,0.8501928867,1.2373426181,1.2408393607,0.796162829483358,1.2398006235,1.2300520468,1.2225513098,1.4402381084,1.0961374182641377,0.7829914400614069,1.2973480411,0.9649422555038154,1.3535797092,0.8826980086,1.4172606236,1.1997562792,1.2409440129,1.2030410689,1.0947012554,1.3024697377,1.5147683467,0.8588874058,0.8061075470000001,0.9947793628,2.3244017947,1.7096191338,1.5140205757,1.7613035948,2.3154975167,2.3147871572 -epf_pjm,0.5183920140062022,0.4718977319,0.5063979983,0.5252307866,0.469692179239839,0.510218339,0.5305707284,0.505779341,0.5310653268000001,0.4917220419172373,0.4720625830563789,0.6080936088000001,0.5446976180665436,0.5842271476,0.5438061755,0.5260131896,0.5630774052,0.5357283062,0.5970346754,0.5214143203,0.5975950790000001,0.5294741765000001,0.4279164596,0.4647764228,0.4528047725,0.9847286217,0.5572886505,0.6832479847,0.5811678677000001,0.9849340043,0.9983940734 -ercot_1D,0.9858990243340118,1.1382701719,1.1641182069,1.1165048715,1.038209758130582,1.0424844276,1.1535828877,1.0650322652,1.068637663,1.1769177523649268,1.0795392998433684,1.1395682476,1.1363258605604731,1.1719804165,1.2574471238,1.1099477241,1.2043415014,1.1504591796,1.1560832976,1.1023893836,1.1613994614,1.5207401260000002,1.182196644,1.4337895652,1.1305420796,1.595269776,1.3979692312,1.5801932033,1.5987746677,1.5840542368,1.5904988370000002 -ercot_1H,1.2964930940110988,1.3575339606,1.3924226326,1.3822958144,1.473701113259639,1.4187095408,1.4117552424,1.3770444388,1.4902438442,1.484315375301525,1.4292818008743051,1.6178435651,1.4056431032159344,1.4158731227,1.5778620760000002,1.4387363625,1.3940552328,1.3914156057,1.5894603436,1.4647042938,1.6141545065,1.610467348,1.4253824233,1.5656382679,1.5757631517,3.1968392544,1.4621684966,1.5835894253,1.5757631517,3.1089999601,3.1208482515 -ercot_1M,0.9771301123475244,0.9503422041,0.9287471551,0.9487285869,0.9974073347601854,0.9371509595,0.9708948781,1.0121701443,0.9788665856,0.9767737757878276,0.9560713460009584,0.9454338592,0.9784896632637966,1.270421568,0.9385687314,1.0538329276,1.2434972664,0.9921791059,1.1003515104,1.0612308441,1.1319534585,0.9720301012,1.1664616476,1.1876314306,1.0876854916,0.9527701456,0.9971197992,1.2051001064,1.1128334801,4.4343715437,4.8730234296 -ercot_1W,1.1672176105822865,1.2194616983,1.1911534584,1.1782190115,1.214287011730811,1.1961903987,1.240747847,1.2277888843,1.1887344203,1.3376883901123306,1.2840224773703113,1.2217926781,1.2382095816675656,1.3488551912,1.394605238,1.2496382187,1.3362468555,1.2261966347,1.5134613082,1.4770568791,1.5178949884,2.6623042198,1.4755174127,1.307670159,1.2938055453,2.6788985121,2.6323348170000003,2.6620757829,2.6319098754,2.6319098754,2.6294908678 -favorita_stores_1D,1.1346882839340209,1.1401981382,1.1823552413,1.182964035,1.1919727819505723,1.1923625249,1.2354348051,1.1934094374,1.1675502675,1.2525921712758292,1.228625222554556,1.2360938889,1.2364241436735808,1.2801444971,1.1868447032,1.2673381544,1.2046882587,1.2688834672,1.2169457375,1.2200293401,1.2374486446,1.3399997306,1.3109793637,1.2704211946,1.3004775575,1.3798606392,1.4187797289,1.3758675561,1.7590444109,1.8830413742,1.8964809388 -favorita_stores_1M,2.099697444605132,1.9751999633,2.0296713013,2.0281958552,2.0410154811461245,2.0500079833,1.9849134839,2.214706385,2.233793585,2.254617061283441,2.1805709937861883,2.195197896,2.147874313403656,2.2858750846,2.170036951,2.1137839937,2.3235561887,2.4178143704,2.3704432246,2.4060388473,2.4362983732,2.118127913,2.336525108,2.2823009563,2.2823009563,2.1221172414,2.2074958895,2.1335008073,2.2823009563,1.9974006109,2.0640825606 -favorita_stores_1W,2.519369940626717,2.2987283752,2.4064013135,2.4007034903,2.3511886465211687,2.4043801441,2.4047551592,2.4234607684,2.2900534401,2.351622628801655,2.421557830898272,2.3655419654,2.399906633162775,2.5078891882,2.4479974876,2.4402828885,2.5772702449,2.4748929321,2.4201344249,2.561243423,2.4844421105,2.4339800044,2.5217672478,2.4232218822,2.5673966331,2.5164520416,2.5800667865,2.476802227,2.5171133606,2.5171133606,2.5526381129 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.950806347880376,0.8493705653,1.0353608414,1.1573638534,1.1375694594581205,1.1100897944,1.1727163782,1.3492617117,1.1514968035,1.1815275832346015,1.6147813022500948,1.1514968035,1.4792351736280978,1.1514968035,1.5712520327,1.3311112487,1.1514968035,1.1514968035,1.310724942,1.324712294,1.4453713127,1.2657781229,1.2084848745,1.9481818856,1.4298920054,1.276505121,1.7409399798,1.251106381,1.8200471813,1.8618151909,1.8593809024 -favorita_transactions_1M,1.308862164356526,1.2531106718,1.2828414504,1.3435767996,1.3714270611236168,1.3494353969,1.3639966097,1.3596174252,1.3315992307,1.3889111900491786,1.405531832482585,1.3153338778,1.409558750682126,1.6619691023,1.4151267612,1.5362401164,1.6105439915000002,1.6365070607,1.546237101,1.6184833791000002,1.5468854988,1.3044405926,1.5197338049,1.98216984,1.5197338049,1.3424992817,1.4642002985,1.4898451606,1.5197338049,1.4299319033,1.6051275322 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.4060267143042549,1.498824744,1.6123778191,1.5728431085,1.647847823698585,1.7727330014,1.6801341964,1.7464561675,1.7479484664,1.518713357044206,2.124324012257304,1.5921709721,2.064762486225089,1.9439221964,2.2363168469,1.7638409898,1.6846164407000002,1.7479484664,1.428234155,2.0992640534,1.9071822198,1.6323769089,1.9621951948,1.7163896187,1.9812367119,1.682650009,1.7908497992,1.7230820318000002,1.5401800861,1.5401800861,1.6333667239 -fred_md_2025/cee,4.114213320466752,4.1602404727,4.2810194365,4.4451599484,3.863760537809776,4.2579071984,3.9665827387,3.9913296788,5.4995170834,5.672670471901022,5.77108104016366,5.4995170834,4.357870913848788,5.4995170834,4.4307139809,4.2152701653,5.4995170834,5.4995170834,4.6328539376,5.6396642877000005,4.3179064296,4.1492831363,8.6979801738,8.4423283749,6.0133928686,4.1316583154,6.365691742,4.726817575,11.8701519825,6.7148852109,4.690209854 -fred_md_2025/macro,6.003273224511048,6.7212231389,5.9119829967,5.9724499394,6.194276830261809,6.0259125296,6.021655579,6.2436277361,6.8925264049,6.756731382942578,8.04535440935118,6.8925264049,6.114909612373818,6.8925264049,7.5109039809,6.141199899,6.8925264049,6.8925264049,6.3882787546,6.9855690276,6.3128442527,6.4760151334,8.1092379319,9.15860551,7.3365073203,6.5541834584,7.2903875836,6.7085954556,11.2729489135,7.1693509627,6.6706675457 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.0140227327848974,2.7861575553,2.2826534178,2.1876748888,2.013262977485245,2.1967951143,2.2053211634,2.500721068,2.5230363793,2.494045433518722,2.966857507337953,2.54380052,2.7032668680938765,2.1384502336,2.6188175963,2.2072154018,2.7932979221,2.9552802132,2.5165776347,4.1237296063,2.4572431853,2.2117006307,5.9092673654,5.3131602834,4.675205254,2.4969928857,2.306650384,2.5784767383,5.726470449,4.3666041799,2.5885780481 -fred_qd_2025/macro,3.972155615026211,4.2345766276,4.0720868682,4.0683505949,4.040068482163627,4.0492349186,4.0304717642,4.2532915594,4.2312964397,4.2198076231030734,4.871297310271108,4.2487781258,4.188447749,4.0394401598,4.7360907702,4.2281567791,4.3026427834,4.4204307215,4.3215014285,5.0800217147,4.2447347559,4.2291679593,5.5406855364,5.7305128854,4.9183163493,4.4466602883,4.483710003,4.4089306091000005,6.2532543651,4.9115310902,4.3735328235 -gvar,0.6934148766205311,0.7105251308,0.6757247819000001,0.6737140403,0.6859033203844243,0.6770418089,0.6837591879,0.7074487038,0.7192074318,0.7552623325789686,0.731355403616328,0.710248642,0.7178383137879448,0.7017894885,0.7338663915,0.7084618488000001,0.7279795764,0.7294646087000001,0.7164579825,0.8613958999,0.708557575,0.6831004762,0.9262540915,0.8360167586,0.7834478609000001,0.7021303883000001,0.7032889312,0.6996326454,0.9186013679,0.743084203,0.6965206862000001 -hermes,0.7600838167134337,0.7761148416,0.8179876234,0.8140635648000001,0.8445970494671015,0.8260161196,0.8550402934,0.8309937735,0.7871785515,0.9410743386090604,0.7883870532501273,0.8049597833000001,0.8222926795723969,1.2021343473,0.8078334610000001,0.9091406926,0.8853610448,0.8579267339000001,1.1717275135,0.959480348,1.1831678061,1.8121215322,1.1763520165,1.0859588046,1.5452963565,1.985223889,1.5317415283,1.8477529336,1.9945193442,1.9945193442,2.047216325 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6873916095194924,0.6889480283,0.6817861283000001,0.6866918662,0.6877419580451609,0.6864295594000001,0.6909932359000001,0.6853563816,0.6882027169,0.6918873967409097,0.6859945254167992,0.6895204716000001,0.6897740197718181,0.6813986428000001,0.7088689694,0.6891306336,0.6860304902000001,0.6860304902000001,0.8940101514000001,0.7291028689,0.6884073577,0.8130155529,0.7068089934,0.6951836985000001,0.6970371604000001,0.8639978192000001,0.7735716435000001,0.8693462265,0.9949475154,1.0417563417,1.0525564497 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7503622127696442,0.7539268543000001,0.7629283834,0.7615608813,0.7625179732454902,0.7638073422,0.7710459945,0.756678048,0.7507699979,0.7764599045763187,0.7585132368825315,0.7521263682,0.7593217293802705,0.7797256533,0.7695972825,0.7760131051,0.7733116563,0.7733116563,0.7843729859,0.8055524179,0.7892378,0.9004451111,0.8167539611,0.7943708872,0.8434878870000001,1.0341883931,0.9125112587,0.9154643579,1.161708021,1.161708021,1.1894416413 -hospital,0.866897758880529,0.8734575212000001,0.8671681389,0.8679956431,0.8684245566885246,0.8665279916,0.8692955815000001,0.8749408189000001,0.8629412820000001,0.8813093944142355,0.8526429777187913,0.8868294147,0.8910088390293787,0.9209462669,0.8808895033,0.8905833847,0.8888399512,0.8888399512,1.1000360569,0.9575868855,1.0844048735,0.8766229994,1.0227631325,1.0139733105,0.9839730481,0.9080008204,0.9191221956,0.9215507224,1.0188066508,1.1050470796,1.1736654924 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.7180431104068239,0.7170504383,0.7167227919,0.7167544131,0.7174711619721541,0.7170635256,0.7174107913000001,0.7179794464,0.7193032148,0.7177225485689456,0.7168159429745188,0.7180610288,0.7184963063123074,0.7201349198,0.7257376566,0.7164969076000001,0.718763612,0.7195191049,0.7223396451,0.7225061727000001,0.7220747847,0.721381589,0.7276346492,0.7244571707,0.7316153085,0.7211231601,0.7209334515,0.7428646649,1.0268297184,0.9746856794,0.9816293455 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.7565832729911113,0.7508052527,0.7527228112000001,0.7529906373,0.7535802192579365,0.7525219346,0.7523353457,0.7609831386,0.7544838626,0.7524053160651185,0.7544663325204308,0.7560553130000001,0.7579432873187183,0.7768045828,0.7550693856,0.7577397368000001,0.7643243648,0.7622844253000001,1.0614172701,0.7598582682,1.1299828457,0.7551866291,0.7542354231,0.7717380393000001,0.7954997308,0.754085474,0.7540567666,0.7779256267,1.043641273,1.043641273,1.083184864 -jena_weather_10T,0.4182715520630374,0.4309090154,0.4218300215,0.4226702319,0.4615291729471235,0.4245089156,0.4296973578,0.478995454,0.4373143717,0.4852007831628027,0.4817599401579402,0.4304721325,0.4741490244051219,0.4518058165,0.4967160547,0.4434533325,0.4805248618,0.4805248618,0.7646151092,0.4900412345,0.6820499033,0.5144770169,0.5587228171,0.5188511306,0.6789537866,0.6119521092,0.5727477171,0.4933654066,0.7300235005,0.5270355616,0.5533241239000001 -jena_weather_1D,1.4278685876185475,1.4035573159,1.4662347469,1.4702452686,1.409214862474672,1.4228391992,1.4313472293,1.3665391794,1.3763415666,1.39016638378867,1.4563000346443564,1.3825082328,1.4101012062726317,1.410255507,1.4813479802,1.4446469397,1.372290368,1.372290368,1.9991114653,1.4276462192,1.9679278165,1.5642224636000002,1.8623383179,2.1653977159,2.2704267056,1.8504210407,1.5277037006,1.6406694152,1.896570119,1.6994317292,1.7748810552 -jena_weather_1H,0.4256470885419975,0.4373910122,0.432801223,0.4323171492,0.4349058788349856,0.4390660376,0.4426331909,0.4379098598,0.4392356673,0.4519340956408125,0.5282781361083098,0.4344342981,0.4279208846492737,0.4469500933,0.5145550687,0.4438780044,0.4542878177,0.4542878177,0.5220404427,0.4459427668,0.5708323869,0.4663908342,0.5741689518,0.54141489,0.5783146828,0.56783211,0.5091821928,0.4846005821,0.7399001584,0.5374935405,0.5445520850000001 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5272094531590245,0.5199208546,0.5625294702,0.5433777298,0.5507810991994854,0.5309238195,0.5438323687000001,0.5903298202,0.5903298202,0.5874785482338106,0.5605745495869143,0.5903298202,0.5713040225275269,0.5903298202,0.7107570771,0.5426727347,0.5903298202,0.5903298202,0.7521142134000001,0.5903298202,0.8303712878,0.7803435012000001,0.6027949179000001,0.8019455392,0.7490762208,0.7837344015000001,0.8070701330000001,0.8117980878000001,0.8187009941000001,0.7815687043,0.8809057297 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.8971326115142029,0.8993091785,0.8940833015,0.8891125355,0.8984963094783156,0.9013936358,0.8954765100000001,0.8990205129000001,0.8934941994000001,0.9000623682372083,0.9087696453142,0.9151213313,0.8923438953288951,0.8968090552,0.9367617531,0.9561151633,0.9125687197,0.9069594681,1.0246834579,0.9235145261,1.0034332515,0.9701320837,1.081961152,1.0828487333,1.0719893944,0.9888169927,0.9552154502,0.9764039847,1.0844353285,1.0306171325,1.0552765592 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5266950983647634,0.5419430891,0.5508028859,0.5397114161000001,0.5438667018200715,0.5480061981000001,0.5439977775,0.5339588193,0.6348935755,0.5523882990413418,0.5572238152571963,0.5195591298,0.550936038,0.5309092104,0.7031626978000001,0.5410887838,0.5156770327,0.6672184760000001,0.5719581529000001,0.5884124519,0.7476704067000001,0.7681164739,0.7870622248,0.7640841395,0.78312645,0.8428842423,0.77066581,0.8416017983,0.8221839517,0.8375670816,0.8782613069 -m5_1D,0.8685193844080794,0.8798761359,0.8640212180000001,0.8645911132,0.8783609144805757,0.8657971579,0.8700025566,0.8753446974,0.8851788252,0.8831569552853591,0.8700886047381443,0.8851788252,0.8945140765533278,0.8851788252,1.2236286696,0.8747585560000001,0.8851788252,0.8851788252,0.9115608992,0.9677992163,0.9060352654,1.056085495,0.8800240073000001,0.89668484,0.8913904459,1.0632996277,1.0630838859,1.0805686536,1.2236286696,1.3575007842,1.3783870784 -m5_1M,1.142663100980534,1.1638225815,1.1890607512,1.1787758094,1.146390564009537,1.1763144559,1.1705038773,1.1629101826,1.1576052063,1.170963914335716,1.159934298192849,1.1818592934,1.167419109601752,1.2422614791,1.1864479485,1.1899160498,1.1773037861,1.1852217015,1.1688542464,1.199580668,1.1750728183,1.1819610746,1.184246647,1.1747116381,1.2505853428,1.2139006306,1.2131357074,1.2589934358,1.3266370567,1.2671440754,1.3915795011 -m5_1W,1.1150603164202575,1.1400355515,1.1867886991,1.1687808914,1.1393551853910664,1.1453836443,1.1312936077,1.1476955465,1.1647431617,1.125246038227924,1.1375061320297069,1.1473897924,1.1485115608935603,1.1447198326,1.1522245863,1.1498581156,1.1500678737,1.1647431617,1.1331152987,1.1330759513,1.1357351186,1.1518023057,1.1138579532,1.1302787621,1.2026259445,1.1672033988,1.156762035,1.1697733844,1.3382424883,1.3382424883,1.3824089514 -proenfo_gfc12,0.7094601646663061,0.8120010668000001,1.0613431052,1.0373502899,1.1094226557411315,1.0288033689,1.0802707824,1.1241553034,1.078131757,0.91280261457888,0.7711814392673475,1.078131757,0.9769768871833284,1.078131757,1.0189776626,1.1416163352,1.078131757,1.078131757,1.1792674572,0.9935522058,1.3037960599,1.5464856742,1.4960505469,1.4289126133,1.2401359067,2.8114372809,1.3848285633,1.5236522053,1.428177449,2.6291046561,2.752813222 -proenfo_gfc14,0.339525028747477,0.5386864242,0.8655041339,0.8578754279,0.4687013919127844,0.8831716113,0.8890321009000001,0.9119046217,0.9285112796,0.5657738659384771,0.5168091271657334,0.9285112796,0.745386429,0.9285112796,0.6348121448,0.9917137206,0.9285112796,0.9285112796,0.6015004656,0.463580052,0.6914805803,1.104374425,0.4891735933,0.6660302005000001,0.4932856223,1.3185527591,1.1681324983,1.1856566432,1.1988543805,3.7072504224,3.9650453285 -proenfo_gfc17,0.5163242123989896,0.6103924746,1.0688623161,1.0819500206,0.8664781874965868,1.0669668856,1.1100847503,1.1380901416,1.0977005303,0.7194819174894902,0.666201969562011,1.0977005303,0.9189420173052976,1.0977005303,0.8551252988,1.2557302982,1.0977005303,1.0977005303,0.7016856003,0.5526319982,0.8171314171,1.4212520631,1.6245556787000002,1.6376055775,1.3006079551,2.4127647494,1.3821477157,1.3687323896,1.5845048281,2.9066492238,3.063129936 -redset_15T,0.8334944066097705,0.9320904759,0.8214438518,0.7575452545,1.1126822669707743,0.8307952312,0.9673386936,1.0022286411,0.8687945385,0.8325528157974874,2.147678645724801,3.5940084079,2.201525870953457,0.9534997004,2.1638593187,1.0487368757,1.1189004542,1.4783947080000002,0.9647518396,1.3649343142,1.3248073962,1.0323384874,1.0904492247,1.0323384874,1.0323384874,1.0323384874,1.0323384874,1.5975972647,1.0323384874,32.0340550838,33.693269406 -redset_1H,1.4638366852136708,1.5030009285,1.4247565104,1.3898091325,1.6048306344447476,1.4262171669,1.4587178019,1.4573336927,1.4842037065,1.4145753200218842,1.460768270339161,1.3849619293,1.6420404571110017,1.4146092935,1.4341630584,1.5148386059,1.536274567,2.6712489782,1.5082353606,1.5646420584,1.5857808187,1.7619724474,1.6826194385000002,1.6826194385000002,1.6826194385000002,2.2287068624,1.8532418573,2.0202444815,1.6826194385000002,8.1555516469,8.1864716224 -redset_5T,0.7682841387259947,0.7864618392,0.7108076876,0.7136562904,0.8856926324692381,0.7219889740000001,0.7609255276,0.9453718323,0.8482881597,0.8087939666520366,0.9517706951328462,1.2643108851,1.097175598792338,0.8568783075,0.8546984643000001,0.84400517,0.9344199172,1.1699231413,1.0727900715,1.0328105291,1.1897695244,2.1640102469,1.0173538609,1.3457444937,1.1083164548,1.0410587245,2.0719155509,2.3397807522000003,1.0410587245,3.1480546998,3.4980186133 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name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,Sundial-Base,LightGBM,Stat. 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Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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527f65adc8c8198bb68887ba69c4225407a4e549..2c3f24ed18d6f4be17438a9f0115f11e711eeef7 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,Sundial-Base,LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.5433074462842196,0.5458017173,0.5586378151316758,0.5335896905,0.5353083701,0.5398526253,0.5682984870000001,0.5515558792,0.5771622688,0.5735147745306821,0.6259993762577944,0.6030259425184072,0.5550232759,0.5925394969000001,0.5675487844,0.5963961444,0.5737369343000001,0.5737369343000001,0.6510820399,0.597092731,0.7624529835,0.5804043049000001,0.7127807327,0.7624529835,1.2626027172,0.8242286029,0.8610694555,1.0985228611,0.7624529835,1.3268766307,1.364982948 -ETT_1D,1.1282151606106623,1.1315469549,1.1217647526653227,1.1507368303,1.1405312124,1.143855937,1.1014613429,1.1363853572,1.1440582819,1.133797878977182,1.1379791799209271,1.1185109786727652,1.2031878311,1.1431203447,1.1553237804,1.1856058506,1.1321824298,1.1321824298,1.2802122121,1.2461046836,1.2707356893,1.3481828095,1.3907091295,1.25875938,1.355962893,1.484646319,1.4351120194,1.3789083245,1.3728451516,1.4222525228,1.4528881509 -ETT_1H,0.8300859700899366,0.8829665685,0.8649999227633224,0.8672923033000001,0.8709263623,0.8673932811,0.8735827903000001,0.8786900273,0.8822637278000001,0.8542362334859159,0.907989659042604,0.9349378235923262,0.8913036409,0.8726006591000001,0.8961325529,0.9339484831,0.9435863135,0.9435863135,0.9510037995,0.9634114324,1.2717102069,0.9520664282,0.9923239428,1.0524049139,1.7645010168000002,1.2734627054,1.2995570797,2.0612851381,1.2068899293,2.3136589095,2.4221862573 -ETT_1W,2.400627382275704,2.3200722308,2.2922133670737583,2.2586726622,2.2945323202,2.285850695,2.2645203409,2.2877468379,2.2485701851,2.301103131186076,2.2520996503353903,2.266260128887646,2.2860033378,2.282938456,2.2236416716,2.4022266941,2.2795034821,2.2795034821,2.8038658249,2.4688224531,2.4073690889,2.5703446589,2.6864108919,2.4423112812,2.3938030681,3.3055190246,3.0028333129,2.603472341,2.5092678911,2.5092678911,2.6321294826 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7586996718524642,0.7791980564000001,0.7768617341436916,0.7836429105,0.7845465061,0.7857961149,0.7923359453000001,0.7949908437000001,0.7738014951000001,0.7979764871842198,0.769406149436554,0.8024142881458447,0.7740027876000001,0.8312624409,0.8358336164,0.7835457679000001,0.8051325961,0.8051325961,0.8458595656000001,0.8625023325000001,0.8198461450000001,0.9248152836,0.9718154773,0.8099517847000001,0.8246251853000001,1.2016962021,1.1816395787,0.8528499565000001,1.0461703764,2.4710362968,2.6285047047 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.5618832631776781,0.6390561899,0.6581844220096744,0.6343707073,0.6283256871,0.6310907196000001,0.6558214242,0.6609654351,0.6206804931000001,0.6286740691128261,0.6672517167408398,0.7009974940064555,0.6478375519,0.6981107765,0.7372999633,0.6674266258,0.7646847798,0.7646847798,0.6600279576,0.7695770803,1.6869474033,0.6972921629000001,0.7194780145,1.1547447744,2.638525618,0.915332077,0.8835096642,2.8320370451,1.5008790843000002,3.5094786436,3.7005853399 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5514913651106977,0.5325340237,0.5514772092752246,0.5625296390000001,0.5430064863,0.5506517325,0.5488731011,0.5428956192000001,0.5953126392,0.6161052123875653,0.7095763220051001,0.7965910787874071,0.6072875357,0.5611374050000001,0.5499692081,0.6202447687,0.7101241528000001,0.7101241528000001,0.5602853387,0.6606205367,1.0436727143,0.5986758137,0.5456749059,1.0012742799,1.1550368256,0.8566762556,0.8686562835,1.1098659434,0.7515879950000001,1.8612988663,2.0191661851 -M_DENSE_1D,0.6523140960577665,0.6463243558,0.7733376999322423,0.7564314643000001,0.7320277621,0.7512110797,0.7460414423,0.8232509545000001,0.7075343302,0.7853137459054337,0.7565055270675693,0.737321316,0.7422618812,0.8408283417,0.8640470712,0.7717292628,0.7589658925,0.7589658925,0.7328201998,0.7844887054,0.9647884402,0.9893696425,0.9603858713,0.9701754728,1.0734765628,0.9083450871,0.8778251039,1.1434781559,1.262653401,2.1937270099,2.2311997966 -M_DENSE_1H,0.5078659107349736,0.5854558830000001,0.5969262102520079,0.5970600924,0.6050656354,0.6074108393000001,0.5867504629,0.6085256933000001,0.5560591779,0.5608430274599511,0.5851457694572142,0.6154460580613851,0.5805491357,0.6204019194,0.7094885956,0.6632770782,0.5952543352,0.5952543352,0.5907953396,0.6604636921,1.1265341156,0.5926278249,0.6004937211,1.0625833507,59.0195304331,0.7014697541,0.7210938459,3.0980400728,1.3040659353,3.8689658057,4.0939855162 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3923534972690371,0.3932968835,0.3962238870240938,0.3936143253,0.3937715691,0.393367667,0.3955981843,0.3973579075,0.3966454241,0.3978086602415315,0.3994507724371505,0.4083116606434512,0.4033604063,0.4013459637,0.4009676894,0.4340988224,0.4131753277,0.4131753277,0.4103262755,0.4438538338,0.5602190944000001,0.4057853396,0.4081343193,0.5602190944000001,2.3550253736,0.5411960582,0.5625857080000001,0.5126750232,0.5602190944000001,1.3787889927,1.4174386477 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4009352784980471,0.3977234578,0.3956990238679724,0.3862794582,0.3865861005,0.3827914496,0.4050422071,0.3878147741,0.4156030477,0.4126103241164038,0.4065244279086497,0.4196061228482923,0.4231428072,0.4183272552,0.4021064715,0.5246665944,0.4264135302,0.4264135302,0.7801324286,0.5170317067,0.6894973187,0.962001064,0.5077694629,0.6584161141,12313684239.414614,0.6910333031,0.6701382322,0.9837416959,0.8375139425,2.6856786949,2.9588624357 -australian_tourism,0.7906486553291587,0.6769555487000001,0.7439512419444575,0.755743319,0.7793895792000001,0.7795670798000001,0.7859715478,0.8427923954000001,0.7323027972,0.9391634608635058,0.694850137522321,0.7784579633069741,0.8627536725,0.8915764853,0.9292371474,0.6979579770000001,0.9175231928,0.9282641568,0.7810969119000001,0.7908486579,0.7300394487,0.8788609746,0.9161057051,0.8009680414,0.7615891755,1.0816787923,1.0897352711,0.8129699422000001,0.8947401064,1.5916364537,1.7922461335 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2871476429985234,0.3010456253,0.3432937109654509,0.2681964011,0.2845711491,0.2785240037,0.3662951077,0.2950040382,0.3261346294,0.3755228963976131,0.3744721404206648,0.3475769870185706,0.3824929054,0.3708436027,0.3348758244,0.3541174315,0.3419873992,0.3419873992,0.6769136788,0.4121569345,0.6336059937,0.3661011575,0.5737094163,0.6185436388000001,0.7179372877,0.5354548175,0.5292632714000001,0.6824779098,0.8851906835000001,0.6654111562,0.6699612016000001 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.301327036045649,0.4108408982,0.659045432445375,0.426643767,0.4470012223,0.4687876227,0.6788550986,0.5403936605,0.461060201,0.6416307863671505,0.3703336223017609,0.7512701613401948,0.3829116624,0.5937675481,0.6229673872,0.5264658924,0.7570014248,0.7570014248,0.6316749574,0.4004194445,0.719707877,0.3649523908,0.8321527759,0.8247104345,0.7310899157,0.7576234547,0.7530991442,0.7495634546000001,0.9226397361,0.6779088091000001,0.7933793764 -boomlet_1062,0.545073086971257,0.5523284751,0.555311868193622,0.5325304807,0.5323660586,0.5326701994,0.5548997136,0.5389569652,0.5732470739000001,0.5509164598277679,0.5540726899554362,0.6172112691332907,0.6738515301,0.5479314935,0.5418768895,0.5748356982,0.5927620394,0.6387175641,0.5582769714,0.6467962229,0.9851058113,0.6551466704000001,0.5994183185,0.7541477761000001,1.3088562178,0.9009499291,0.983198758,1.3443713392,0.9105473133,4.3036993435,4.6588724131 -boomlet_1209,0.6480147087547365,0.6799099954000001,0.6978233601422145,0.595506964,0.5982246772,0.6033069594,0.7293072070000001,0.6146719328,0.7045922371000001,0.6942047529574846,0.7682483989129945,0.7546263655330743,0.7048715358000001,0.644747831,0.6479343819000001,1.0443015788,0.7562347027,0.7840808506,0.7221169952000001,0.7807326884,2.4692530744,0.7936443395,0.9557046645,1.1085996536,1.2637392131,0.9742643589,0.9927704971,2.729237738,1.2637392131,3.2386174109,3.5173454505 -boomlet_1225,0.1841705946551921,0.1864128972,0.1862889799535441,0.1803593032,0.1805102803,0.1808226777,0.187627861,0.1822725152,0.190080309,0.1913951995971506,0.1993979833643002,0.1942443666020114,0.2122607896,0.1835602798,0.1857979376,0.2202597451,0.1948503404,0.2030750845,0.2061799857,0.222714996,0.2803755246,0.1890585979,0.1911028017,0.2348969849,0.3176935118,0.2483559023,0.255820597,0.3296940648,0.745385819,0.745385819,0.7585705484 -boomlet_1230,1.154338603170769,1.201031991,1.174796432636375,1.0899592481,1.0914336881,1.0920678565,1.1859324556,1.1115808079,1.1874248061,1.1810068029163812,1.292409489483204,1.2483559529874884,1.2002251825,1.1353398906,1.1421118962,1.6021141835,1.2863247525,1.266108877,1.2449619928,1.3047326747,3.390035079,1.3089563224,1.6035503613,1.8500253406,393376696999491.8,1.3771614682,1.4274055249,3.9779654007,2.0369976807,5.5481527801,5.9878394007 -boomlet_1282,0.3957325426509972,0.4211360586,0.4108198399052765,0.4033993505,0.4022959829,0.3934727046,0.408903337,0.4101595822,0.4034160526,0.4294294975656358,0.4125768221143119,0.431833325,0.4329049622,0.4066135134,0.4129995924,0.4199209625,0.4269211105,0.4618106438,0.4289540573,0.4521593639,0.7391125171,0.4127201368,0.416701825,0.5565242632,0.9135627299,0.7178772331000001,0.7317596636,0.9716916483,1.5394068103,1.5394068103,1.5690882757 -boomlet_1487,0.4058912400320077,0.4233194118,0.4323201891907128,0.3806610297,0.3827166317,0.3844379293,0.4270074593,0.4017548532,0.4122943573,0.4292383175110338,0.4470261447017197,0.4768262307311914,0.4266351433,0.4004232584,0.4260201682,0.7190211417,0.4557618636,0.4824435416,0.5113092414,0.4989559922,0.6807093531,0.5319003556,0.5384342772,0.6560424582000001,0.7236915697,0.5296842807000001,0.6314985567,0.8366025957000001,0.8422519526000001,5.6512371294,6.1210675798 -boomlet_1631,0.5753262618120247,0.5718706997,0.5868236857709034,0.5538982553,0.5577758872,0.5583924678000001,0.5981611194,0.5764632744,0.5790200294,0.5958402952822299,0.6219298759894352,0.6148102500356808,0.5919052434000001,0.5806944285,0.5806484029,0.7008405748000001,0.5907980986,0.6194052561,0.6290290896,0.6443979368,0.6885645595000001,0.6244832684,0.6295405316,0.6896442348,0.7214099138000001,0.7840087741,0.8647964118,0.7282739174,0.8513712535,1.3493380036,1.3890549561 -boomlet_1676,0.5543373290662764,0.5686748679,0.5636068162517018,0.5398853139,0.5426404231,0.5422867104,0.5712459136,0.5513277666,0.5626255001,0.5741759323629606,0.6016652104370287,0.6077712476948691,0.5882972718,0.554444394,0.5561889279000001,0.8305000389,0.5727147195,0.6076896707,0.6076642387,0.6145915641,0.6950889415,0.6130806452,0.6033684371,0.664818372,0.7563535744000001,0.7522987645,0.7812367057,0.7835312600000001,0.8503822229,1.3195857327,1.3578116765 -boomlet_1855,0.4509140804499353,0.4615736804,0.4542860609875849,0.4345097115,0.4334943128,0.4352980292,0.4500166192,0.4474067593,0.4725778394,0.4612322594860088,0.5035843957537904,0.4642095141544263,0.4737663287,0.4522875092,0.4492351264,0.6304712379,0.464879976,0.4695926843,0.5025033989000001,0.5254199296000001,1.1233499755,0.5226192424,0.5582099367000001,1.0829482047,1.1848850589,0.6300995462,0.6443521790000001,1.2044141936,1.4642665234,3.2734555819,3.2968155873 -boomlet_1975,0.1271451495260023,0.1333320334,0.1397648776376917,0.1027168248,0.097324005,0.0975215503,0.1921381374,0.1191291154,0.1671766165,0.1476015339682611,0.2513555927780582,0.1662682539800805,0.1684755686,0.1261994368,0.1451597334,0.208181269,0.2195469344,0.179392905,0.1288347827,0.2023056594,0.5478588831,0.190799742,0.4596269308,0.5505765414,0.611359383,0.3279616223,0.5089229918,0.6292227781,0.8427719298,0.611491132,0.6131317103 -boomlet_2187,0.7140342992183448,0.7122729535,0.719339607555989,0.6770915724000001,0.6796668926,0.6815604435,0.7105001350000001,0.6990546247,0.8020040121,0.7171435028655175,0.8352927513167032,0.7338828894349271,0.745609595,0.7633891475,0.7194559635000001,0.9244561409,0.8067927053,0.7746853034000001,0.7553496013000001,0.8515537165,1.2729717659,0.9220270178,0.9810183294,1.3028566625,1.3069851744,0.9130007445,0.9202249676,1.389411781,1.6696910968,3.007286737,3.02793884 -boomlet_285,0.2959466833230936,0.2900640673,0.3443007045805658,0.2590034678,0.2601604369,0.2608434451,0.3453755045,0.280219851,0.3965655567,0.3508554939407197,0.3541767461117314,0.3714806324339058,0.5098224314,0.3187496321,0.3218176679,0.3474603742,0.4274151937,0.4767029005,0.4335118963,0.4879211264,1.2619335664,0.4654726315,0.4628337923,1.1887776826,1.2033358695,0.5225346821,0.4692106421,1.3318503746,6.0221504812,6.0221504812,6.1302545275 -boomlet_619,0.3104948050268289,0.3232653903,0.3207597351388844,0.2861559298,0.2869806268,0.2894401896,0.3410809263,0.2986340787,0.3398320593,0.3370339068091886,0.3261909539290346,0.3556750824773309,0.5293904265,0.3097234884,0.3135556532,0.3277022377,0.3294344192,0.4708614916,0.3123887141,0.3705071077,0.7771722931,0.321599624,0.3115592883,0.5544648006,0.8944230162000001,0.6168268245,1.3661388609,0.8352158472000001,1.2751647051,1.2751647051,1.3005697257 -boomlet_772,0.276785855605769,0.2827797609,0.2929414057657262,0.2649503284,0.2652043742,0.2674691407,0.2962086421,0.2761029446,0.294866871,0.2982583000523374,0.3054376225869047,0.3141254822616043,0.3506349478,0.2809798447,0.2902362244,0.3321933631,0.3139115767,0.3391929942,0.3473315925,0.3520560133,1.1794168077,0.3088148556,0.3239512441,0.7834129983,531470199.30140096,0.3866455226,0.4043528583,1.4390517149,2.490998287,2.490998287,2.5366947176 -boomlet_963,0.6928251891763623,0.7165952965,0.7019012782172595,0.7015912221,0.7104565405000001,0.7083189280000001,0.7184034894,0.7140251293000001,0.7387586402,0.7323603075056278,0.7862284241523283,0.7489767548966648,0.739939699,0.7195574656,0.7229660492000001,0.8141836092,0.7505200275,0.7786787341,0.7923416634,0.7521897883,1.334806172,0.7302070086,0.7558819317000001,1.1056032589,1.608901145,1.0280335706,0.948977253,1.4536844168,1.6474289684,1.6474289684,1.6758761219 -ecdc_ili,2.1446232828001244,2.2713937157,2.192456898912054,2.3745010826,2.4128212272000003,2.4310164289,2.4106397040000003,2.4510300395,2.2150356615,2.5458962954177844,2.4573774435197846,2.442968814736758,2.2011208512,2.5609678081,2.5338166452,2.3365331867,2.4544933393,2.6531174879,3.3407415689,2.7054455064000003,3.8373639206,2.7637013504,3.4522595632,3.6414550458,4.0788004375,2.6359504213,2.657299556,3.8437922738,3.7763740412,3.7763740412,3.9298377867 -entsoe_15T,0.4962995619795615,0.4539692649,0.4432047728616628,0.4455587065,0.426208374,0.4381152576,0.4692753658,0.5055777775,0.4709170876,0.498154927366253,0.6477114252819485,0.491723576330322,0.481611144,0.5893481889000001,0.5883233504000001,0.4758631846,0.4782887502,0.5061680813,0.5759481439,0.6669136238000001,0.7806910738,0.5155502672,0.7806910738,0.7806910738,3.0289340555,0.9042372943,0.8380750606,0.5794334177,0.7806910738,1.5177144371,1.6350644226000002 -entsoe_1H,0.3161468674222292,0.4292730862,0.4817596844417065,0.4101660563,0.4224634609,0.4256814438,0.4701221999,0.4447538881,0.4680893726,0.4391925570563407,0.384830535154666,0.4753783490017622,0.5616083615,0.4796314997,0.5183088057,0.4404895567,0.4870732449,0.4574194984,0.6488322029,0.7440774844,0.892037158,0.8136484091,0.5748262169,0.8725110646,1.9050298478,0.6518687919,0.5970910659,0.9723015566,1.0561195215,1.9153526973,2.0110168631 -entsoe_30T,0.5349602709456166,0.4335549531,0.5005483325091996,0.4146546189,0.405038874,0.4445023685,0.5229834629,0.4395821765,0.5657877332,0.4797481929620063,0.579068396303577,0.5324082856718012,0.5004599829,0.4953109646,0.5550284881,0.5133098745,0.4883587595,0.5294317369,0.5958784273000001,0.7215674609,0.8465164158,0.5622171084,0.5524671427,0.9807421936,2.4927614743,0.7535617677,0.6559652231,0.7996836319,1.0103240736,1.6091505837,1.5911802803 -epf_be,0.4827084286006363,0.5032959121,0.5319225521407256,0.5171872122,0.5146457744,0.5014795033,0.5270142793,0.5416327571,0.4937475408,0.47612231026766,0.5332593102688878,0.5053587681642974,0.5637818842,0.5635987802,0.5671427583,0.5464266305000001,0.5281380215,0.573131012,0.6260342733,0.6465423658,1.2134728193,0.550117544,0.604636517,1.056062842,1.5343230558,0.7447461558,0.8069993803000001,1.4843337118,1.1502802393,3.0844577095,3.1070840923 -epf_de,0.4825887929235973,0.491116807,0.4880414701646064,1.0103180021,0.9853228527,1.0376379231,1.0321657926,1.0304676086,1.0300426579,0.5904124975299979,0.4367504266680445,0.641829284,1.008407533,1.0966425232,1.0153757746,0.4481231347,1.0163696767,1.0208057991,0.5089676628,1.1830726521,1.1665654366,0.4600117346,0.632211468,1.2777052381,1.4013077948,1.092293938,1.0961059598,1.4943828631,1.3876762483,1.4012217276,1.4206595351 -epf_fr,0.3317523076039749,0.3617711398,0.3483775825317684,0.3955569372,0.395886476,0.3979992787,0.4013687893,0.4353276464,0.4091650071,0.3642666570741119,0.3739033410112943,0.4162508064535263,0.3914642125,0.4290344523,0.4373481725,0.3296946424,0.4092032935,0.4389129045,0.3966932787,0.461064889,1.1455536514,0.3377276082,0.405352581,1.1580732802,0.8989034360000001,0.5789717952,0.5540351793,1.5911736362000002,1.245523433,3.8189176542,3.8479454088 -epf_np,0.7157017206599133,0.6581144952,0.6120173698740318,0.9514661425,0.9662899325,0.9547651442,0.9662473913,0.9821055904,1.1706350438,0.8102298694352614,0.6326802888048368,0.775848168,1.0787234972,1.0305150538,1.1539374354,0.6784422918,0.9253466762,0.9710722954,0.6895900221,0.9450979115,1.2844682023,0.6353227614,0.8172925467000001,1.3932103544,1.9332061058,1.2030410689,1.3024697377,1.28120416,1.5298484623,1.9403665423,1.9414482925 -epf_pjm,0.4113325421437234,0.3815757864,0.3749227228252754,0.404272156,0.4183045813,0.405580151,0.4041709926,0.4214118509,0.4263079718,0.3903649477011529,0.3821325591298794,0.4269814194299671,0.5094128422,0.4493240609,0.4181511903,0.4356828169,0.4405348748,0.4216992865,0.3455213143,0.4679144039,0.4870663954,0.3694112031,0.3569453107,0.4818704953,0.9138785739,0.5970346754,0.5975950790000001,0.6031843862,0.5152721129,0.9298473052,0.9378547809 -ercot_1D,0.7795466383050111,0.8691910278,0.8050406740606775,0.8885593012,0.8425199384000001,0.8193500454,0.8182837222,0.8660805833,0.8296777373,0.9304031158614758,0.8451644824417806,0.8740599465929856,0.9106076874,0.8817792488,0.8594344444,0.9762180728,0.9470906528,0.9164572424,0.9423287706,0.9267011801,1.2548535606,1.1665632953,0.9077867237,1.1018625514,1.3820413502,1.1560832976,1.1613994614,1.4186958593,1.3382664903,1.3903868577,1.4000667369 -ercot_1H,1.0001701257308853,1.0291210659,1.12429710778084,1.073420423,1.0699724465,1.1062954854,1.0649765757,1.1001127974,1.1510446687,1.1468265168892036,1.107700165389693,1.154251945198992,1.3347209787,1.0947836283,1.1254333272,1.2289820048,1.0976603356,1.1379290551,1.120598037,1.2226080643,1.2598225559,1.2198959074,1.3214751737,1.1754444734,2.6755881519,1.5894603436,1.6141545065,1.2749706344,1.3214751737,2.6413248366,2.6942610973 -ercot_1M,0.7642092184408491,0.7549419478,0.7894534930384258,0.7344646848,0.7443515152,0.7410596322,0.8060543733000001,0.7727935542000001,0.7715311204,0.8303006863618118,0.7553373538052813,0.7720353293321686,0.7468934166000001,1.0036782341,0.8388079947,0.7477304274000001,0.9725732486,0.7729483525,0.9597229178,0.917392765,0.7617082098,0.9725133,0.8798250142,0.7879913772,0.7564464103,1.1003515104,1.1319534585,0.9653005258,0.9042858344,3.4990135147,3.8188806089 -ercot_1W,0.9105612611621734,0.9664287997,0.9448787524049,0.9342862465,0.9295393459,0.9357843462,0.9546524174,0.9803640377,0.9324255959,1.0493487026603368,0.9964452557030437,0.964995962,0.9729797938,1.0610507161,0.9754918214,1.0976477799,1.0526167053,0.9613116074,1.1863135463,1.2458511259,2.0949542296,1.0380153591,1.0192954526,2.0899487146,2.0679213703,1.5134613082,1.5178949884,2.1282361519,2.0789778449,2.0789778449,2.08010839 -favorita_stores_1D,0.9151254266814606,0.9164120516,0.964638610268981,0.9568145277,0.957299319,0.9643153172,0.9681608121,1.0011850261,0.9493623589,1.0216201484204483,0.989499543264631,1.0041087992870763,1.0189850251,1.0364488755,1.0300815581,0.9637863937,0.979821362,1.0322306622,1.0769941706,1.0613262128,1.197046553,1.0670043372,1.0970758974,1.2216416049,1.2378827408,1.2169457375,1.2374486446,1.2731528129,1.6902367837,2.6356836342000003,2.6562348007 -favorita_stores_1M,1.8126803887236929,1.7943754897000002,1.783260687821159,1.8178061811,1.8288812277,1.8354272819,1.8559124263,1.8077841091,1.9983090295,1.9475272984140213,1.9234985965626687,1.841755713884215,1.877365611,2.0096879831,1.8455187971,1.9206099315,2.0913151512,2.0865003622,2.0974305924,2.2542926251,1.9426065544,2.1000375919,2.1000375919,2.0381596399,1.9424462273,2.3704432246,2.4362983732,1.9416453029,2.0967116015,2.0578284218,2.1067030725 -favorita_stores_1W,2.152678014056253,2.0241017868,1.9688870924150603,2.0435379772,2.0404245134,2.0481420709,2.0462405913,2.0558505179,1.9683866141,2.025095951187817,2.054172465191093,2.0234463707656496,2.0181047236,2.1281396981,2.0834063591,2.0504188569,2.1965497119,2.1010925575,2.2156335262,2.3082226469,2.2196005529,2.2405815866,2.3266869236,2.2969051103,2.3568206954,2.4201344249,2.4844421105,2.3159830055,2.493828911,2.493828911,2.5295781948 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.803757191393579,0.684612804,0.952641030753745,0.9445906683,0.9691195791,1.0558440937,1.0314215723,1.0712494281,0.9750458565,0.9710044051595164,1.2831102129867946,1.2702790211801689,0.9750458565,0.9750458565,1.165461955,1.196304363,0.9750458565,0.9750458565,1.0392228061,1.1981736735,1.1848435872,1.7065906049,1.2607887013,1.5621685722,1.1813088428,1.310724942,1.4453713127,1.2463370549,1.7338216692,2.7303837443,2.7460309868 -favorita_transactions_1M,1.0185171132959558,0.9426020865,1.0992332207440365,1.0898108433,1.1426459881,1.1282570754,1.0893114005,1.1494598672,1.1326950892,1.1389650721522515,1.2138108309494609,1.1079080447466214,1.0493959644,1.3972687837,1.2087569342,1.2140686036,1.3896304682,1.3584690769,1.3333949017,1.4526874778,1.1521707921,1.6376187465,1.3333949017,1.2777968251,1.1787496577,1.546237101,1.5468854988,1.2743467081,1.3301725317,1.742429157,1.8848236976 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.2085568379398746,1.2279251974,1.3385642638487183,1.3275482931,1.3623307768,1.3959773193,1.3836394233,1.4613329187,1.4283013105,1.297587466828236,1.5792758918796217,1.6445570255518862,1.3023858443,1.5609912723,1.5187757056,1.6972179627,1.4633900408,1.4283013105,1.8105447817,1.8454095028,1.5592826469,1.6344103055,1.8072413097,1.6323137004,1.6473855441,1.428234155,1.9071822198,1.702092846,1.6714139442,1.6714139442,1.7289504359 -fred_md_2025/cee,3.426803898734609,3.4681773516,3.2862153899585804,3.4942281917,3.630142231,3.5504661202000003,3.3490390927,3.5530764112,4.4904404316,4.4727234111333,4.822992531019894,3.742707125261575,4.4904404316,4.4904404316,3.5359407686,3.7041500289,4.4904404316,4.4904404316,7.6925211545,4.8863751494,3.7449838629,6.9393157052,5.3109209972,5.8791416317,3.6428847697,4.6328539376,4.3179064296,4.3189751677,9.437102726,5.9195737806,4.2362936577 -fred_md_2025/macro,5.080041945595314,5.6801712856,5.305881370729671,5.0400543973,5.0621548708,5.1382708302,5.3069669569,5.1661849842,5.8417533351,5.627031401253796,6.623291752242224,5.215768539269617,5.8417533351,5.8417533351,5.2765655398,6.1825139742,5.8417533351,5.8417533351,7.1011174556,6.2236190621,5.7428835176,7.7591999599,6.3217648862,6.5438633313,5.7936387624,6.3882787546,6.3128442527,6.012472706,9.579307634,6.4047597145,5.9752290634000005 -fred_qd_2025/cee,1.6793907544594038,2.1919917498,1.63601940067248,1.8959691559,1.8267948727,1.8513157927,2.0461814758,1.8110020468,2.1807036328,2.156497162098414,2.4554780915288537,2.085829997072279,2.1195490728,1.7606520917,1.8282301609,2.101214517,2.295596059,2.3654952358,4.5666976905,3.6414340592,1.9027740876,4.2968453253,3.8775183088,1.9543398256,2.1232724401,2.5165776347,2.4572431853,2.2176909312,4.4448479394,3.6757739505,2.1956616598 -fred_qd_2025/macro,3.3282656424426724,3.5367304504,3.3697035491390688,3.3930127564,3.3943726422,3.3733442079,3.5296543365,3.3639434301,3.5932767777,3.616400600187479,4.039724069464175,3.485506978805226,3.6105250303,3.398953642,3.5102113787,3.8719882611,3.6155616019,3.6544020316,4.7066002132,4.5427910096,3.61485092,4.8382267803,4.1198307849,3.867502906,3.9044348798,4.3215014285,4.2447347559,3.8250563511,5.2213315156,4.2518846304,3.7928251231 -gvar,0.5673247221989841,0.5781460056000001,0.5589551550190921,0.5520770844,0.5523810767,0.5553047582,0.5767863273,0.5586088046000001,0.5902138188,0.6471083428807352,0.5938390869805694,0.5810223800505645,0.5795708007,0.5751378779,0.5795582951,0.6012717483000001,0.5933262222,0.5962858425,0.7665804953,0.7468286472,0.5896099364,0.682673492,0.6419824392,0.6171744531000001,0.5932241960000001,0.7164579825,0.708557575,0.6161918224,0.7861696299,0.6701753201,0.6414950052 -hermes,0.5981372032951682,0.6092189134,0.6636667367798976,0.6428202477,0.639800402,0.6498324266000001,0.6510189417000001,0.6741658114,0.6183988825,0.7404558307880976,0.6188832166415184,0.6465554489907451,0.6381034028,0.9852563242,0.7133876145,0.6468349598,0.7037822328000001,0.6752116274000001,0.9395641353,0.8242736568,1.4161688306,0.8661144355,1.1546456242,1.2129200317,1.6730456533,1.1717275135,1.1831678061,1.5539343327,2.1461477989,2.1461477989,2.2601295925 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5487394120839723,0.5567377231,0.5517053707585935,0.5484381323,0.5518996789,0.5516858958,0.5472671455,0.5553720088,0.5516009988,0.5545733338863561,0.5518801120405257,0.5552408120746626,0.5610893835,0.547031209,0.5523202468,0.5730396578,0.5508924456000001,0.5508924456000001,0.5667204665000001,0.63854811,0.7197387021,0.5717076034,0.5775128338000001,0.6445167349,0.7933138018,0.8940101514000001,0.6884073577,0.815310861,1.0291569641,1.5929687017,1.6067653203 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6151351162124609,0.6161304379,0.6248919227515206,0.624085328,0.6233546775000001,0.6258001616000001,0.6208684049000001,0.6309678977000001,0.6177938223,0.6365694315793115,0.6250946465314302,0.622957962,0.6224977220000001,0.6379482866,0.6371435328,0.6334654,0.6366963837,0.6366963837,0.6734145718,0.7066222052000001,0.7460571899,0.6595958758,0.6934204731,0.7472607396000001,10.4767922043,0.7843729859,0.7892378,0.7744970072,1.3859393712,1.3859393712,1.4166524035 -hospital,0.6824867961109091,0.6860471169,0.684214603052502,0.6841879552,0.6846047194,0.6824665364,0.6884080713,0.6850518532000001,0.6797112234,0.693876616571658,0.6731882113926562,0.6982329769400416,0.7150951289,0.7333951985,0.7064233591,0.6961231004,0.6968021754,0.6968021754,0.8156058973,0.8343055996000001,0.6974795861,0.7967011435,0.7754934212,0.7310321411,0.72594971,1.1000360569,1.0844048735,0.7401804133000001,0.8075125999999999,1.0208467823,1.0870231781 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.555198921115305,0.5544475609,0.5543269980988865,0.5543424782,0.5541303956,0.5544590612,0.5551415716,0.5545977005,0.5560606366,0.5550166430452219,0.5543550233133119,0.5562855857009278,0.5627026409,0.5565258195,0.5546337247,0.5623231751000001,0.5555647833,0.5561584179,0.5632521932,0.610265181,0.5569559243000001,0.5603946334000001,0.5642281657,0.5556445819,0.5557966851,0.7223396451,0.7220747847,0.5748023861,0.8571822312,1.3250699949,1.3357575783 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.5813791253914526,0.5763906233,0.579011430293741,0.5787779578000001,0.5791562113000001,0.578490351,0.585060916,0.578135881,0.5795336826,0.5784140333984773,0.5814975220067113,0.5825863429866256,0.5871381871,0.5988911707,0.5860531109,0.5823740864,0.5862064839000001,0.5868402228,0.58146478,0.6410506868,0.57890017,0.5941090541,0.6143388617000001,0.5793359346,0.5783166585,1.0614172701,1.1299828457,0.5976752263,1.0492127287,1.0492127287,1.0884368163 -jena_weather_10T,0.3395807846769623,0.3543287448,0.3776441156035776,0.3452384725,0.3452573699,0.349190447,0.3893025432,0.3521827767,0.3571555591,0.3896774804083632,0.3977691542162583,0.409483845324518,0.3585628877,0.3681838375,0.3620502047,0.3982931033,0.4178230298,0.4178230298,0.4664932635,0.4152438085,0.5538563553,0.4273236416,0.5945116836000001,0.5032091612,0.7418250317,0.7646151092,0.6820499033,0.7929160857,0.6729893281,0.7693201103,0.8000027455000001 -jena_weather_1D,1.12681600297482,1.1112540398,1.107842571937628,1.1538624622,1.1583045413,1.1174383099,1.0716473767,1.129349467,1.0903437468,1.104837379672574,1.1431718457152311,1.1195380958108505,1.1090836186,1.1102918031,1.1355619161,1.169457826,1.0749683519,1.0749683519,1.5715589625000002,1.2388075013,1.3391730827,1.8310462786,1.9409795236,1.3052392127,1.6641987749,1.9991114653,1.9679278165,1.5312195925,1.7668616048,2.1502001769,2.2588602062 -jena_weather_1H,0.345835578237405,0.3530166989,0.3538974986116629,0.3494926844,0.3506141223,0.3542711499,0.3556669004,0.3592740462,0.3588962232,0.3661830909122264,0.428629334578385,0.3454673091723851,0.3582722458,0.3614757077,0.3619730242,0.415359889,0.3668484894,0.3668484894,0.4675756221,0.3803257267,0.4515903501,0.4411310457,0.4870567156,0.4369650957,0.552924987,0.5220404427,0.5708323869,0.5933268922,0.6550438080000001,0.5788947411,0.5844505982 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.4293204006656628,0.4250790923,0.4529682936307481,0.447004261,0.4330467661,0.4282436484,0.5333420093,0.4368852356,0.5333420093,0.4683665151178693,0.4559395274289512,0.5072560735586973,0.5333420093,0.5333420093,0.4355228069,0.5644804492000001,0.5333420093,0.5333420093,0.4956628002,0.5333420093,0.7163827294,0.6623905197000001,0.67751777,0.7400410128,0.746986754,0.7521142134000001,0.8303712878,0.7782845343,0.7774995271,0.7544738308000001,0.843339209 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7001636633697494,0.703502155,0.7009228994600589,0.6977554734,0.6930008373000001,0.7031467502000001,0.6974981279,0.6972014541,0.6975119232,0.7017688342227455,0.7090888044750191,0.6969207770706304,0.7225312716000001,0.703265005,0.7440942069,0.7278216361000001,0.7078449032,0.7086991552,0.8800525434,0.8018621055,0.7298649393000001,0.9073817196,0.8779595727,0.7200476657,0.7509996386000001,1.0246834579,1.0034332515,0.7391822819,0.9005495229,1.1381260541,1.164651229 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.4269020048875146,0.4388772718,0.4349572379339479,0.4451861188,0.4399407544,0.4400916592,0.4319676063,0.4323781862,0.5054627583,0.4464995611716952,0.458777471541116,0.4671724181205438,0.4260441729,0.4287190469,0.4370582677,0.5544360955000001,0.4273561269,0.5612428372,0.6316240477,0.5099402658000001,0.6792707648,0.6391498337,0.6825619174,0.6406027351,0.7719233297,0.5719581529000001,0.7476704067000001,0.7653501955,0.7740434259000001,0.7638792977000001,0.7929597827 -m5_1D,0.7077473387385875,0.7216368132000001,0.7205846263896121,0.704144171,0.7044639941,0.7054049866000001,0.7143626549000001,0.7101053234,0.7292764904,0.7182580354525956,0.7201100611971899,0.736743588,0.7292764904,0.7292764904,0.7160844073,1.2544668351,0.7292764904,0.7292764904,0.7204230466,0.8516064277000001,0.8497151257000001,0.7940666040000001,0.7947398711,0.8516619787,0.8527658262000001,0.9115608992,0.9060352654,0.8721490282000001,1.2544668351,1.9603909971,1.9793212182 -m5_1M,0.961701422837206,0.9769838168,0.9701469273100152,1.0883596808,1.0882265961,1.0171056227,0.9740068996,0.9921575147,0.9798127287,0.9965449615488364,0.9855240728785152,0.986461872,1.0070103764,1.0440301056,1.0100709358,1.0008086842,0.9958730284,1.0000578956,1.00567635,1.0814673882,1.0218593551,0.9998964569,1.0998342408,1.0455375295,1.1082320943,1.1688542464,1.1750728183,1.0987392539,1.1398593577,1.1923633097,1.2896192832 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+world_tourism,2.676663025726656,3.0519541233,3.193929412342205,2.81991240308866,3.1287513725,3.2354071951,3.0493581547,3.0521218384,2.8432689486,3.5616996549,4.155712901634556,3.149344762337055,3.663744676994836,2.4472485416,3.2205228998,2.8294267896000003,2.8124790787,3.2640026026,3.1644023312,4.7967774445,4.3603502979,2.5524025228,3.2788829432,2.9231538441,2.6184635765,2.8819679835,3.0494057593,3.0054201369,2.5742928493,3.2013302679,3.2013302679,2.3982302121 diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv index 0ef8318e7c30eccdf01cfcfa9dcec6d64e9e56f2..01aa615a730c7eec35b0d416b7c16eff8e1ecc83 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,t0-beta,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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dbf084a6e70cf91309d1562a79994b14aa157b80..a307945626c7defa7e32aa4bd3ce1362876e87bf 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,t0-beta,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,FlowState,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.1120932975838947,0.1093204188,0.1096413526,0.1128598566,0.1102235484,0.1138016979470881,0.1133056087,0.1167248716,0.1158377721,0.1277055473232923,0.1167988497854641,0.1134573436,0.1222164234,0.1196766644716262,0.1215191215,0.1165488051,0.1146202501,0.1146202501,0.1157490913,0.1333792316,0.1398110393,0.1328079771,0.1473227956,0.1186695699,0.1393924813,0.2089927319,0.1473227956,0.1327521247,0.202845638,0.1473227956,0.2094913494 -ETT_1D,0.33021807396844,0.3394552275,0.3280857838,0.3210531483,0.3158326952,0.3420415583929304,0.3229389383,0.3321509522,0.3280948975,0.3355526428793763,0.336973084343904,0.371841069,0.3527269384,0.3341167665485825,0.3405863591,0.3352292924,0.3275848036,0.3275848036,0.3646975075,0.363591792,0.3295882514,0.4094091823,0.3275626731,0.3795980344,0.3918615035,0.3392487668,0.3554786791,0.3405146072,0.3361394622,0.3566862672,0.3456173952 -ETT_1H,0.2319908214825225,0.2437576175,0.2445032078,0.2467289659,0.2424597287,0.2435291723788384,0.2442280412,0.2452016068,0.2477475434,0.2587453255658147,0.2430097352049371,0.2500971646,0.2535823447,0.2455185163766145,0.243451935,0.2487794037,0.2464663105,0.2464663105,0.2547681354,0.2780071237,0.2765730893,0.2644368017,0.262127553,0.2656204862,0.2659028279,0.3240313317,0.2729976741,0.2708169586,0.338907016,0.2864224587,0.3517438199 -ETT_1W,0.5144633519481202,0.5067147578,0.5190302288,0.5228870836,0.5174044067,0.5070306021870257,0.4859628314,0.4956519363,0.4771292578,0.520022349394661,0.4906025190469652,0.511936006,0.5145717291,0.4702526360750198,0.4957755585,0.4687525665,0.4599850641,0.4599850641,0.5208597481,0.6083512742,0.5222573649,0.4680254205,0.4587044315,0.4445193222,0.4762920601,0.4551568284,0.5033163587,0.4891462915,0.3963209978,0.3963209978,0.4451834252 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0353309274966876,0.0359374356,0.0360972337,0.0363369958,0.0363307562,0.0361705093999902,0.0367073286,0.0359623256,0.0367103026,0.0357774658359257,0.0371656743508182,0.0356744821,0.0366289483,0.0373263435438275,0.038823438,0.0392369505,0.0373221389,0.0373221389,0.0372882528,0.0458887833,0.0451010422,0.0392690751,0.0378798347,0.0418140235,0.0437190303,0.0379914598,0.0375884529,0.038968802,0.0786971631,0.0445690594,0.0891125322 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0591372056544201,0.06816517,0.0673969781,0.0681990332,0.0673099319,0.0699688610860717,0.0706625336,0.0643115029,0.0704373399,0.0713651283937751,0.0678358430001879,0.0683908426,0.0716520886,0.072775726,0.0749549385,0.0795993086,0.07979342,0.07979342,0.077676107,0.0786934855,0.0759691767,0.0699971461,0.1021083959,0.0742517529,0.0772867588,0.1460618878,0.1129810625,0.1024438366,0.1526884162,0.1172784963,0.1758716537 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0746668739367308,0.0772399432,0.0744810165,0.0736883423,0.0753441604,0.075582190228459,0.0740519529,0.0792618448,0.0750445002,0.0962011672777523,0.0853315711988068,0.0811139788,0.0815252506,0.097470926,0.0756154473,0.0750912871,0.0886344944,0.0886344944,0.0829992138,0.092754854,0.093645715,0.0754857662,0.1069220741,0.0820779495,0.0755048556,0.1085262701,0.1080897003,0.1108838339,0.1121638606,0.0883255612,0.1301715225 -M_DENSE_1D,0.0863853639909092,0.1011238143,0.0983824779,0.083318119,0.1019439018,0.105684471106762,0.1071643367,0.0935403827,0.0993285481,0.093351624720203,0.1024207068536762,0.0944414084,0.0967641323,0.094621335,0.1091491666,0.1124073754,0.0985291558,0.0985291558,0.0968305223,0.0981694563,0.0957110479,0.0882527837,0.1192791435,0.124360167,0.1251160023,0.1300925918,0.1260855301,0.1322432979,0.1969771493,0.1419847532,0.2006916609 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1279704230870292,0.1426968956,0.1446259812,0.1462710002,0.1439970149,0.1505291984648664,0.1511157635,0.1379960554,0.1467316923,0.1440050897051253,0.1395241934878755,0.1431459855,0.1612682207,0.1491491481661796,0.1533336131,0.1835893874,0.146687637,0.146687637,0.1584326059,0.1423458068,0.146969784,0.1435627361,0.2484246657,0.1484567094,0.1441513556,0.3140071828,0.2454276024,0.2921647739,0.6536297205,0.2611668877,0.7074491787 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.2389268679361323,0.2399044971,0.2395844008,0.2391328625,0.2394940953,0.2407664077202322,0.2417945176,0.2409728498,0.2404616798,0.2427411944683499,0.2417257971979801,0.2421101707,0.2510481419,0.2441583424806594,0.2440836698,0.2432725185,0.2437216353,0.2437216353,0.245247978,0.2575205425,0.2672559373,0.2487469595,0.3343059967,0.2450097222,0.2486180086,0.3189421009,0.3343059967,0.2728340265,0.3568555375,0.3343059967,0.3669907246 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1646370202624492,0.1607278219,0.1612936025,0.1627460048,0.1600338345,0.1625038958972551,0.1626474037,0.1730356132,0.1678203544,0.1673777185967798,0.1660322526920796,0.178433196,0.1876738885,0.1760067790746688,0.1653456491,0.1660172808,0.1713460045,0.1713460045,0.2091502994,0.2283900294,0.2222432054,0.3066544503,0.1850999182,0.2866523282,0.2024572254,0.6624498779,0.2079726255,0.2595271883,0.246570508,0.2122471743,0.2908696599 -australian_tourism,0.0994888445942915,0.0991654326,0.1031427947,0.0905689129,0.1024777689,0.1026847340238297,0.1217966059,0.0948839244,0.1068701122,0.0926205644584735,0.1296260450010194,0.1159215245,0.0928173902,0.1065569445490837,0.1336289898,0.1434159682,0.1308895306,0.1434193129,0.0969211906,0.1127308859,0.114470018,0.1075350294,0.0957876079,0.1212877223,0.1476027155,0.0970392975,0.1101633592,0.1052965868,0.1803925375,0.1130525186,0.1993307009 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2971570439227129,0.2649811358,0.2830118331,0.3308650646,0.2740413015,0.3419541584799565,0.3194207955,0.3901138188,0.4282031108,0.3647902085633162,0.4132245014359479,0.3943252864,0.3722320029,0.3792306074689674,0.5398329498000001,0.3887154792,0.4081446067,0.4081446067,0.4650631395,0.4824019412,0.6596941904,1.3378529006,1.3223615306,0.4125489479,0.6359198922,1.2847489361,1.7735276670000002,1.398048772,1.3024706114,2.2812914149,1.3151569495 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.2965464564696126,0.6019642518,0.7084742741000001,0.4957355787,0.8028948850000001,1.378629463525534,1.0151896199,0.905720177,1.413578143,0.370571949725277,1.2459474437610525,0.4191976395,1.112724066,1.377472644971983,1.2217795091,1.1670127242,1.3254390424,1.3254390424,0.6893105085,1.2816541813,1.2750427235,1.2322213455,1.3437154865,0.3737477456,1.9203846303,1.3366882038,1.5979523955,1.6561117474,1.2818957178,2.2837712309,1.8269103606 -boomlet_1062,0.5671038662289672,0.5602131899,0.5601008306,0.5680818423,0.5608505135,0.578190356789373,0.5647496388000001,0.5789273604,0.5749673408,0.5680465301565842,0.5733035235134585,0.649406926,0.583171597,0.5957806474279055,0.5680448784000001,0.5662882778,0.5945871025,0.6012691405,0.6355941124000001,0.6947080193,0.7310192876,0.5815261981000001,0.7826401260000001,0.5868247902,0.6281684175000001,0.8238335331000001,0.7457671709,0.838659141,1.002939936,0.8355847054000001,1.0990104986 -boomlet_1209,0.2871072670621588,0.2753789474,0.2758636728,0.3048900987,0.2768972005,0.3133542134417375,0.2819311969,0.3045249199,0.3234299182,0.3248116366226868,0.3145857443071623,0.3069784641,0.378539641,0.3269036029638746,0.2916395772,0.2956766258,0.3292905567,0.3271624691,0.3340434651,0.3974305497,0.4040311763,0.3266866348,0.4339859429,0.3209838453,0.4049670646,0.4784097795,0.4278108937,0.4562012457,0.4388518195,0.4784097795,0.5110153026 -boomlet_1225,0.1210888881589977,0.1187701136,0.1189267292,0.1220172782,0.1190632458,0.1224017387752072,0.1199806027,0.124231222,0.1230602606,0.1301235219108324,0.1254952099009803,0.1366057007,0.1347378215,0.1265660038740583,0.1206674926,0.1220553664,0.1278310668,0.133129479,0.1333109416,0.1300694606,0.1335584833,0.1353752748,0.1538434969,0.1236211332,0.1255504423,0.1598025896,0.1446868769,0.1596047964,0.195260352,0.195260352,0.1988768315 -boomlet_1230,0.2917740621065117,0.2839644302,0.282637063,0.3054680901,0.2826603804,0.3103507235948754,0.2865913906,0.2999179446,0.3117769112,0.3264794909812402,0.3122782230847131,0.3025436964,0.3451734839,0.3214600342938312,0.2906921267,0.2930834114,0.3094188718,0.3241073904,0.3178766378,0.3315908089,0.3572037361,0.323976894,0.3894998992,0.3215473803,0.4068682543,0.4274646375,0.3998710702,0.4040077097,0.391246969,0.4654206113,0.4504819186 -boomlet_1282,0.3331467952660208,0.3421015963,0.3418121068,0.3551724804,0.3326308737,0.3457789419746395,0.3476774543,0.341846609,0.3447100916,0.3490272096780865,0.3640363264996674,0.3666828666,0.3455212249,0.3633551782203306,0.3441524006,0.3482339761,0.3639267579,0.3918061865,0.360391448,0.4901192771,0.5002534195,0.3595750445,0.4329732175,0.3477719231,0.3511681227,0.4705070133,0.4049750819,0.4717626296,0.5673586451,0.5673586451,0.5815167091 -boomlet_1487,0.1951027913371137,0.1799236896,0.1809128523,0.2009541891,0.1818382742,0.2055547715125545,0.1907900428,0.1978987699,0.2042655855,0.2113614719506857,0.2060032164398926,0.1991484874,0.237766095,0.2118269638399835,0.1895179595,0.2026428062,0.2079859225,0.2074861594,0.2194652483,0.2090217151,0.2479427342,0.235078835,0.2612758557,0.2650068248,0.2404912221,0.261441788,0.2590437585,0.270651306,0.2881606103,0.2823812789,0.3361342463 -boomlet_1631,0.3137391686503914,0.3062241803,0.3065804129,0.3118222283,0.3079245165,0.3199511554068771,0.3131809945,0.3155328261,0.3227136563,0.3371049845228359,0.3258936159866824,0.3220048824,0.3561001565,0.3269643147930037,0.3156276945,0.3163039351,0.3229502886,0.3246407646,0.3276903199,0.3409899959,0.3811041731,0.3393196526,0.3432863772,0.3312184623,0.3356006011,0.3481223866,0.3495776854,0.3499573975,0.3828907336,0.4303123068,0.3956788511 -boomlet_1676,0.3147755429098723,0.3092046964,0.3118296981,0.3237391089,0.3111644961,0.3177720546676763,0.3138007667,0.3195228016,0.3219743377,0.3299388012031961,0.3233659247088032,0.3230813822,0.3407874083,0.3375521735936636,0.3174772279,0.3161557532,0.3274155869,0.3288848917,0.3249830057,0.3452395086,0.3543739472,0.339933145,0.3472162291,0.3287924407,0.327227909,0.3539671692,0.3534196437,0.3605949767,0.3738144227,0.4490416803,0.3871649547 -boomlet_1855,0.158029087520571,0.1536945848,0.1536687115,0.1587321378,0.1532895691,0.159107712381043,0.1555421752,0.1647552298,0.1574463203,0.1833833926827814,0.1596520332445826,0.1650041535,0.1977442882,0.160893554,0.1574817462,0.1576210054,0.1619848811,0.163484017,0.1777051742,0.1843830343,0.1882813296,0.1770202868,0.2153578233,0.1822080404,0.1937413977,0.2190390129,0.2241676522,0.2310231854,0.2028796299,0.2553250916,0.2044042451 -boomlet_1975,0.0856476194250754,0.0635712481,0.0626839556,0.0905538287,0.0646200666,0.0947607758966617,0.0806787256,0.1160976808,0.1343890612,0.1695218930357366,0.0970354681338971,0.111396157,0.1353373301,0.1089755262069326,0.0860445288,0.0984766355,0.1478435607,0.1244086678,0.1286565167,0.1960005761,0.2956348279,0.0860471747,0.3327476299,0.1340041246,0.3321969541,0.4015633576,0.3661623289,0.3240569452,0.4014330304,0.5204730917,0.4021568225 -boomlet_2187,0.2679296230181853,0.2546107764,0.2542672197,0.2656522618,0.255390406,0.26960318636927,0.2602692843,0.2903383525,0.2640573045,0.300693347060175,0.2656188978793148,0.2787503785,0.3206839353,0.2741044488159532,0.2837092153,0.268655356,0.2926881408,0.2890647491,0.3149817281,0.3042627349,0.3053239373,0.2972106993,0.4073318873,0.3251406783,0.3790448028,0.4339327838,0.4429809164,0.4414077782,0.4033328222,0.4651800067,0.4079644266 -boomlet_285,0.1617543576553662,0.1495747919,0.1507213103,0.1637453323,0.1517381549,0.1700101085954018,0.1573398691,0.1907992815,0.1807812867,0.1908417729239064,0.1804612481772002,0.2713245991,0.1796136801,0.1855866952254182,0.1591563728,0.1644625376,0.2203877038,0.2555644864,0.2649652282,0.2097047282,0.2104575884,0.2171958546,0.3599062976,0.2574381515,0.2577870463,0.3622854232,0.3443378916,0.3717445354,0.6725665365,0.6725665365,0.6908623001 -boomlet_619,0.2782959935323942,0.2557797214,0.2572421585,0.2998264354,0.2606405884,0.2886290467923883,0.2686271378,0.3117435697,0.3174073125,0.3044973830847295,0.3183145525621056,0.564625849,0.3007913494,0.3293758810354539,0.2786982938,0.2870848363,0.306216862,0.4683247328,0.3109702097,0.4760077804,1.1986603049,0.2844007002,0.8714422495,0.2994306038,0.284715861,0.9528967903,0.5880218176,0.8820872230000001,0.9458725566,0.9458725566,0.9676378964 -boomlet_772,0.1535318207536603,0.1473015428,0.1476782193,0.1571995002,0.1491162833,0.1594187303483382,0.1523247081,0.1602755058,0.1610101792,0.1663831908724788,0.1634258292638962,0.1912585405,0.1717648806,0.1694926518253607,0.1545926826,0.157764458,0.1698505857,0.184564584,0.1812428949,0.1798892391,0.1854859461,0.1895877433,0.2635365009,0.1670103509,0.178333941,0.3077275685,0.2378165952,0.2834336913,0.2919496092,0.2919496092,0.2993941879 -boomlet_963,0.3730030925087927,0.3724573271,0.3756470932,0.3817032517,0.3738322407,0.3825851199522793,0.375685391,0.3978755656,0.3901485331,0.4326284188996913,0.3972473934158851,0.4141920484,0.4246316934,0.4120574240423074,0.3789607432,0.3814302709,0.4169379174,0.4316260397,0.4042673384,0.4813266313,0.4468457357,0.4333187663,0.5013279656,0.3978373821,0.4156477219,0.5458354666,0.5164873151,0.5049570979,0.5169750434,0.5169750434,0.5254156815000001 -ecdc_ili,0.3769655916955149,0.4283251859,0.4356330198,0.3759767271,0.4321405053,0.4215117220623104,0.429471832,0.417202445,0.4242536421,0.4103001340018452,0.4666539624406997,0.3513953066,0.3895551555,0.4257785081863403,0.4689472768,0.4694937859,0.4756084915,0.4956143189,0.5432749093,0.4142561126,0.4321302873,0.6345231271,0.5675369603,0.5192435827,0.5018922,0.6168868373,0.5880377347,0.5694230217,0.553441182,0.553441182,0.5846513683 -entsoe_15T,0.0472958292677946,0.0412594521,0.039411835,0.04219648,0.0397634133,0.0385403533219318,0.0451831162,0.0416073942,0.0420496511,0.0612814009508786,0.0460907658038556,0.0411117247,0.0432881807,0.040157807,0.0522227057,0.0592820056,0.0423905654,0.0428303063,0.0564987165,0.0672225597,0.0565863135,0.0431686774,0.0676773905,0.0424691617,0.0676773905,0.4080646636,0.0676773905,0.0539835231,0.1434365068,0.0676773905,0.1567171749 -entsoe_1H,0.021706856931992,0.0292979012,0.0302689316,0.0329469333,0.0297360569,0.0373741016106866,0.0325106984,0.0358633265,0.0363473811,0.0318311435642059,0.0343543238941966,0.0435542307,0.0329599207,0.034928305,0.036663767,0.0392701114,0.0395727229,0.0341011005,0.0554685768,0.0410886751,0.0340190017,0.046998361,0.0833483922,0.0625049117,0.0454110996,0.1569610277,0.0854086553,0.0836396267,0.1571170386,0.0792450116,0.1671798928 -entsoe_30T,0.0444690623418375,0.029373914,0.0281497286,0.0367303018,0.0310720346,0.0429378234895424,0.0314183275,0.0473410114,0.0399606739,0.0520352563383743,0.0414606003733736,0.0361486403,0.0400383065,0.039940982,0.0379183059,0.0440758761,0.0382675845,0.0378308186,0.0519962882,0.0513033053,0.0375924966,0.0489734209,0.0767401429,0.0484014626,0.0452643509,0.2411743389,0.0909343821,0.0721444578,0.1462993865,0.0870952156,0.1450240754 -epf_be,0.1084387468707003,0.1217262142,0.120252408,0.115556011,0.1182908848,0.1203234715812035,0.1273098184,0.1125578376,0.1230011674,0.1183945017114153,0.1079638211727417,0.1320250934,0.1207207788,0.1138261450454592,0.1319671659,0.1349344446,0.1227849215,0.1357350054,0.1303241445,0.1317892247,0.1508564425,0.1391220303,0.1754449336,0.1235230536,0.1393755624,0.2487520536,0.1986222899,0.1881915063,0.2375762583,0.1840044497,0.2400494102 -epf_de,0.3824053067614369,0.5574299216,0.562706031,0.291016907,0.5804403734,0.2675378459677633,0.5396161448,0.5914115395,0.5786662197,0.316956678750021,0.3150308331165831,0.5369788806,0.3215312098,0.3753619818016886,0.6668194214000001,0.5778780089000001,0.5364827276,0.5606897085,0.5721812874000001,0.6438459738,0.4304549488,0.3460585166,0.6023224579,0.2403375079,0.3084980987,0.6107009872,0.6818832147,0.6459929005,0.6107063781000001,0.7489839558,0.6189188878 -epf_fr,0.0622170828981193,0.0778787367,0.0782983774,0.0680296275,0.0792749395,0.0652304057191373,0.0851043823,0.0771284032,0.079796696,0.0695476443783036,0.067788865517694,0.075549728,0.0623870421,0.07957595,0.0842988347,0.0867301313,0.0791283828,0.0876754684,0.0812654203,0.0897236727,0.0875960399,0.0732882333,0.1133464851,0.0623092488,0.0775092663,0.1492719597,0.1532071661,0.1293735398,0.1702834225,0.1298259961,0.1727491389 -epf_np,0.0425989144702809,0.0562432965,0.0568525884,0.0381853723,0.0562802758,0.0359208090897249,0.0556997585,0.0639044813,0.0554376827,0.0354932686159747,0.0488103138268956,0.057734546,0.0390593345,0.043778507,0.0613902184,0.0634048451,0.0542902104,0.0566988404,0.0496031295,0.0541779059,0.0580048539,0.0394225875,0.0682558116,0.0364949348,0.0453294971,0.1040808282,0.0786227771,0.0688152612,0.1036567875,0.0796461408,0.1036498403 -epf_pjm,0.0899115618745587,0.0889006239,0.0922532882,0.0821098361,0.0896657335,0.0818221670130156,0.0943006606,0.0941735445,0.0893689399,0.0825470313216668,0.085977170070263,0.1108700694,0.0934064887,0.095062098,0.1034603161,0.093154341,0.0975614802,0.0937614763,0.0934227692,0.1043853207,0.1053596414,0.0745172796,0.0933488327,0.080205125,0.0786423047,0.1716884106,0.0984762136,0.1198625571,0.1717319927,0.1016348277,0.1742728945 -ercot_1D,0.0732437499001579,0.079469776,0.0774693233,0.0765202672,0.0755929347,0.0751677823124108,0.0796014942,0.0756690356,0.0751543713,0.0772882952687702,0.0795992994958327,0.0844589205,0.0889966895,0.07988606,0.0809221839,0.0808351619,0.0819215252,0.0793944329,0.0776411118,0.0842841024,0.0841483393,0.0845853073,0.1129253367,0.1038158012,0.0831419137,0.1178659491,0.1103588401,0.1169790959,0.1179466138,0.1245740203,0.1188580253 -ercot_1H,0.0660576702618958,0.0728074035,0.0722163657,0.0691227315,0.0736111306,0.07569847401711,0.0724032038,0.0764717877,0.0705278079,0.0736621589104192,0.0742688002989218,0.0827835367,0.0796147151,0.072596434,0.0720581415,0.0740544164,0.0716643823,0.0730120158,0.074077414,0.0757580694,0.0767356718,0.0734131741,0.0829790261,0.0770274513,0.0818516594,0.18085608,0.0749658528,0.0814625778,0.1561551629,0.0818516594,0.1562254033 -ercot_1M,0.0496267237604671,0.0463833238,0.0476655416,0.0474946219,0.0466206557,0.0502313474664262,0.0486793381,0.04841726,0.052489105,0.0475964718270924,0.0475565523805767,0.0469801367,0.0470302492,0.048323109,0.066887429,0.0535050327,0.0656316495,0.0511789475,0.051032866,0.0550054836,0.0562941835,0.057014872,0.0481692304,0.0580235552,0.0516416905,0.04707373,0.0493777897,0.0593784228,0.2662117718,0.0529377866,0.2937269471 -ercot_1W,0.0583104554456187,0.0579955217,0.0572125417,0.0589590463,0.0587166003,0.0595392891811735,0.0587249383,0.0591913258,0.0586846144,0.0596668503179659,0.0611754084961243,0.0600733111,0.0645491631,0.0603493159636855,0.0655970177,0.0607620769,0.0638612149,0.0599824862,0.0685063219,0.0666738621,0.066749705,0.0706809287,0.1453860556,0.0658125251,0.06337307,0.1469057543,0.1429765576,0.1458645745,0.1442763314,0.1442763314,0.1446279689 -favorita_stores_1D,0.141223132474571,0.1437441454,0.1437002054,0.1382725313,0.1501612198,0.1578592668716991,0.1603027881,0.1452467849,0.1518204392,0.1645023653209356,0.1734232764045898,0.1629797409,0.1461106376,0.1672702565789222,0.1784628471,0.1713920408,0.156809864,0.1742722613,0.1561883375,0.1568033522,0.1604637991,0.1767520174,0.1788677609,0.173233511,0.1742511181,0.1871851757,0.1934442445,0.183486084,0.3056042532,0.2519854289,0.3071700049 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1382170161258319,0.1488318169,0.1421965995,0.1303168371,0.1423759376,0.1241912466275409,0.1405769813,0.210253134,0.1893665845,0.1202766662499593,0.1856562209528935,0.1795840023,0.1159085175,0.1768015399575233,0.1982291291,0.1668144128,0.2355426894,0.2636523319,0.2560960427,0.2186079118,0.2631369633,0.1468390062,0.146696035,0.1900056962,0.1900056962,0.156828165,0.1385348547,0.1535032235,0.1232989518,0.1900056962,0.1430777539 -favorita_stores_1W,0.1158067802115824,0.128154192,0.1294175857,0.1289288979,0.1299436495,0.1210464556571245,0.1319886036,0.1308373912,0.1345634818,0.1219871360175983,0.1283518825248686,0.1438093423,0.1223397944,0.1327817104756832,0.1510714535,0.1458085466,0.1555078895,0.1579625085,0.1497412801,0.1313115817,0.1374015627,0.1605108187,0.1436039782,0.1556403661,0.1635470427,0.1484425902,0.1500959677,0.1443628678,0.1528069122,0.1528069122,0.1540484097 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.067908995484578,0.0703794242,0.072750578,0.0611646173,0.0734428141,0.0827915859451537,0.0826301662,0.0873474585,0.0820303043,0.0839513682941389,0.0836806246835645,0.0873474585,0.0755585427,0.091998886,0.0873474585,0.0931842433,0.0873474585,0.0873474585,0.0798803577,0.0803527192,0.0820513812,0.1004339458,0.1005134217,0.1411110018,0.1009706804,0.1010010868,0.1204928338,0.0961165557,0.1561206006,0.1460640723,0.1564211233 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0751247710919901,0.0789081966,0.0800672383,0.0719262234,0.0817581919,0.078260076563278,0.0814224618,0.0741879094,0.0772057417,0.0789625347274394,0.0814626698150009,0.0749943449,0.0813819736,0.08904193,0.0888638815,0.086290531,0.0863027538,0.0940793492,0.0944761617,0.1003374582,0.103265625,0.0907197162,0.0746712369,0.1334237609,0.0907197162,0.075680572,0.0833974167,0.0943706955,0.0830064558,0.0907197162,0.0979339545 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0556392866957759,0.0559835294,0.0556297167,0.0562127232,0.0582538381,0.0626477803080113,0.0602192565,0.0628811317,0.0590786255,0.0670295506504546,0.0651590505947411,0.0553172007,0.0670592321,0.067616656,0.0688530372,0.0663838481,0.0671727598,0.0628811317,0.0715127803,0.0633303918,0.0649015272,0.0708713793,0.0683781244,0.068687239,0.0784804137,0.0708877588,0.0730921635,0.0703343528,0.0709917221,0.0709917221,0.0733929446 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0762321571900734,0.0707690226,0.0705812827,0.0808948604,0.0729991602,0.0819502722512763,0.0802872354,0.0893563029,0.0771422882,0.0857970020011898,0.0917156770819314,0.0893563029,0.0819316578,0.086363164,0.0893563029,0.0831655254,0.0893563029,0.0893563029,0.1094554538,0.0787889712,0.0853956633,0.2607037859,0.0880950069,0.203559816,0.1227237324,0.0874256547,0.1015705654,0.0903405107,0.0912865233,0.1825383744,0.089978595 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.072091322442983,0.0749571601,0.0744356383,0.0797789855,0.0748832737,0.0779213251088188,0.0758627334,0.0832975235,0.0786031675,0.085066312159333,0.0827910626340029,0.0832975235,0.0843348455,0.078294121,0.0832975235,0.0774391771,0.0832975235,0.0832975235,0.0866654116,0.0902616068,0.0896123902,0.1126393629,0.0850931927,0.1064522807,0.0929593866,0.0855845029,0.0913136794,0.0868680126,0.0864161226,0.1316369623,0.0862326516 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.1406630571954305,0.1481604876,0.1426362665,0.1657290639,0.1492977307,0.1467020392839382,0.152661422,0.1558658062,0.1467262466,0.1583802024194579,0.1525211338018178,0.1784543144,0.1511925626,0.1704707093847294,0.1329010946,0.1614065135,0.1528913558,0.1553945178,0.2050228651,0.1851033116,0.1863665634,0.210282653,0.153518619,0.2390326694,0.2260756122,0.1635254321,0.1628828007,0.1604369991,0.164697239,0.208385131,0.1613227839 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.0973040984057658,0.0993824289,0.1000438536,0.1070199647,0.1012513982,0.1006158524842458,0.1000970201,0.1036789811,0.1035667709,0.1117564129915322,0.1056159168648135,0.1106020262,0.1112298663,0.1059675091546595,0.1021105708,0.1069171157,0.1058608331,0.1074347073,0.1156803335,0.1081842345,0.1087879791,0.151836426,0.1102426311,0.1312617622,0.1265599839,0.1130458025,0.1150225397,0.1135594269,0.1126509037,0.1422945036,0.1116643437 -gvar,0.0183738314503562,0.0178175124,0.0177055351,0.0184834703,0.0178477471,0.0178318751808939,0.0178974614,0.0187466029,0.0185361033,0.0191344150897223,0.0216035041961236,0.0184422133,0.0199360902,0.0184560998837696,0.0183975203,0.018342803,0.0185879217,0.0189676563,0.0219536834,0.018022062,0.0178566903,0.0237902802,0.0182359256,0.0205529398,0.0202029902,0.0183902986,0.0184923179,0.0183729023,0.0185624256,0.0239340232,0.0179424463 -hermes,0.0027983739952408,0.0029982458,0.0029903587,0.0028845992,0.0030127204,0.0031936577070467,0.0031568631,0.0029142733,0.0030851759,0.0029399667564204,0.0035629281570873,0.00291984,0.0029982359,0.003069935,0.004372123,0.0034898641,0.0033616599,0.0032080069,0.0036552635,0.0045409315,0.0045605713,0.0040168461,0.0078905801,0.004446494,0.0061507655,0.0088396817,0.0063903025,0.0081041064,0.0087068713,0.0087068713,0.0088381629 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6921687690993225,0.6898964712,0.6989381542,0.7004947938,0.697331471,0.6941349518733575,0.7028477360000001,0.6943961595,0.6893573270000001,0.7000773590745766,0.7053715389386057,0.6963073358,0.7261253304,0.6978458821773529,0.6898838815,0.6986542811,0.69495873,0.69495873,0.7362602293,0.9140827896,0.6910062152,0.7108954875,0.8618716737000001,0.6970747937,0.702080134,0.9335796355,0.8072637297,0.9374909955,1.0676994373,1.0205005959,1.0792345186 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.4296581453112469,0.4316688312,0.43104428,0.4327760933,0.4321480393,0.4351591583292074,0.4371998036,0.4307300691,0.4324219853,0.4324449795613909,0.4405289384685374,0.4266847133,0.4374522976,0.4339944511651993,0.4363569789,0.4409505466,0.4394375657,0.4394375657,0.4750745565,0.4416683838,0.4443902888,0.4718466659,0.5484556803,0.4486028884,0.4666803532,0.6528082018,0.5603942556,0.5616531388,0.7169096389,0.7169096389,0.7343846609 -hospital,0.0899542058194786,0.0894252458,0.0895184447,0.0955333467,0.0892451238,0.0896761227702259,0.0897854684,0.0891746492,0.0908275207,0.0860761244547937,0.092431163486149,0.0896269345,0.093092021,0.093112975,0.0952146633,0.0932818859,0.094797316,0.094797316,0.1026285514,0.1298282834,0.1253974395,0.1193316502,0.0920567958,0.1125786601,0.0946332295,0.092793151,0.1056054813,0.0992142454,0.1174956093,0.0954293196,0.1240455631 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.5326519244116432,0.5316702001,0.5317086108,0.5318945219,0.5319372066,0.532216724912936,0.5321823976,0.533603767,0.532626473,0.5317346961387386,0.5324030231775131,0.5326887853,0.5385044329,0.5330127388238907,0.5342081621,0.531517079,0.5332016895,0.5337376775,0.5358891719000001,0.5358010023,0.5356471101,0.5397762032,0.5351516929,0.5374586122,0.5427489841,0.5349606606,0.5348244904,0.5510431179,0.7243229402,0.7622172844,0.7295191623 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.2129910298590793,0.2120413037,0.2120673837,0.2115394616,0.2119459122,0.2122187572835266,0.2119039432,0.212422525,0.2142321087,0.2123995832706636,0.2119333393228145,0.2128423192,0.2126885808,0.2133830897510051,0.2185049319,0.2133726977,0.2152673571,0.214606831,0.2139370313,0.2980487657,0.3185996988,0.2124488276,0.2126255133,0.2172499698,0.2241780852,0.2122781935,0.212284724,0.2190619932,0.2933695345,0.2933695345,0.30397943 -jena_weather_10T,0.2412399283604696,0.2381326212,0.2364187084,0.2751553475,0.2388019544,0.2736158503599924,0.2394360428,0.2575870043,0.2777656168,0.274556936678544,0.2650197926128196,0.2508563394,0.2845234713,0.29237038131181,0.2477512575,0.248307264,0.3021136367,0.3021136367,0.3908659499,0.6868431996000001,2.3233309172,0.3358074778,0.3329980606,0.3070544087,0.3602273192,0.3862366289,1.1769855511,0.3075604148,0.3408485187,0.7879570855,0.5317361626 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-m5_1M,0.4173608026641919,0.4349113535,0.4341409243,0.4288781907,0.4322732639,0.4195289821968709,0.433231795,0.4248804523,0.430584818,0.4225071820387371,0.4329961274139483,0.4380192311,0.4358401106,0.4297947883605957,0.4596618577,0.4456052767,0.4363168514,0.4455042206,0.4508921802,0.4386853319,0.4413139906,0.4377760631,0.4417751202,0.44540304,0.4859348215,0.4605289718,0.4600670833,0.491009323,0.4776365015,0.5107534377,0.5485711973 -m5_1W,0.4148076934875371,0.4232106322,0.4211308969,0.4283166904,0.421826037,0.4231924562751414,0.4236058496,0.4334180243,0.4280506995,0.422991471830725,0.4210003257861709,0.4342662078,0.4276139788,0.4324602484703064,0.4278170503,0.4302277151,0.4286455322,0.4334180243,0.4258472919,0.4221415048,0.4239931625,0.4185501947,0.4386763422,0.4264766461,0.4555515595,0.4468326682,0.4387526054,0.4475454427,0.5041812027,0.5041812027,0.5192106105000001 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-redset_1H,0.2186536387464479,0.2017175558,0.2058190387,0.2086091326,0.2044371194,0.2268420859192478,0.2096151434,0.2327233732,0.2140746079,0.2314472182531527,0.2123195685649464,0.2098585267,0.2300995696,0.2364258393645286,0.2270666544,0.2324200927,0.2229073558,0.2425440894,0.263667053,0.2696877086,0.2869469355,0.3300818778,0.3024373795,0.3300818778,0.3300818778,2.3069740205,0.3273749282,0.3717607367,0.4976614852,0.3300818778,0.5004897538 -redset_5T,0.3018190801937509,0.3060558619,0.3093109903,0.329381554,0.3096942761,0.3755003514123135,0.3185551639,0.344345473,0.3807104957,0.3544606024326989,0.3512302079643572,0.3890207102,0.3557026998,0.4319086492061615,0.3440240041,0.3613596569,0.3707561233,0.4300963327,0.3967622221,0.5022592442,0.4982754206,0.364974377,0.6020360036,0.4725466885,0.4609677826,0.4487639191,0.6915958771,0.6252421531,0.6784450967,0.4487639191,0.7538361825000001 -restaurant,0.3564822789151135,0.3634033593,0.3645172458,0.3583806779,0.3670700996,0.3598174076790265,0.3711203038,0.3569885636,0.358398096,0.3599835261116934,0.3731564399711012,0.3675987469,0.3635455763,0.362074676901102,0.3730876021,0.3783634365,0.3649469273,0.3649469273,0.3637035079,0.4065274905,0.4090550607,0.3741138279,0.371055817,0.3660404764,0.3775095342,0.400986579,0.3996725635,0.3923323283,0.6125214853000001,0.4832833217,0.6468708955 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.0545419113050043,0.0592987501,0.0619575721,0.0560522973,0.0605329438,0.0618923240750697,0.066612091,0.0590882791,0.0571725396,0.0619862443376584,0.0629737856048931,0.0597408547,0.0586861264,0.0591536335647106,0.064284874,0.0664381297,0.055230396,0.0613666854,0.0667062812,0.0554603889,0.0590804504,0.0638969894,0.0628070901,0.0909527724,0.1048931401,0.0657169764,0.0740682063,0.0664489307,0.1082820657,0.0827216385,0.1096319506 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-rohlik_sales_1W,0.2241430177557012,0.2841345035,0.2791514695,0.2291194974,0.2802288508,0.2192921834763424,0.2851454086,0.2667129879,0.2736291045,0.2013798454674252,0.2868602759950536,0.2609332143,0.1932170507,0.2598514258861542,0.281180164,0.2914195915,0.2871065202,0.2846268057,0.292871207,0.2639455477,0.2987408551,0.3118661576,0.2905908422,0.3118661576,0.3118661576,0.3002878273,0.3070147703,0.2945936435,0.3118661576,0.3118661576,0.3224962891 -rossmann_1D,0.1443628841185364,0.1982480092,0.1993629137,0.1197795045,0.20332722,0.1689114145172392,0.2190897824,0.2085952203,0.2251284009,0.102186158692958,0.1065288805667259,0.2109593764,0.0998477211,0.2131271556019783,0.2320751877,0.2277302035,0.2214855411,0.2176495405,0.2092144758,0.1095834631,0.1126136697,0.269245196,0.2277587244,0.312663439,0.269245196,0.23606179,0.2223706764,0.255792226,0.5480500863000001,0.269245196,0.5516847016 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b/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv index 62da72aa98a5e667064fede19f69c733d0f8c6d5..40b757116a4079ef1399d0b88d4e1fad34473721 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False 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-ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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d2f7aabc91e0d738a54781d38c4c68c36adbec3c..a7df3c068a79572ea60c3a0918a0cb4da6de8e54 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,TFT,Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoETS,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.0872802712232425,0.088140917,0.0854041008,0.0854547853,0.0861819589,0.0894876775906081,0.0883123431,0.0914609728,0.1008164756688193,0.0925313491,0.0916432477053152,0.0899486611,0.097021875,0.096110358,0.0951986305,0.0910278902,0.0933383153,0.0933383153,0.1046640183,0.0969683943,0.0936103841,0.1224205307,0.1145544583,0.1224205307,0.1333792326,0.1398110405,0.1889663006,0.1702353739,0.1224205307,0.2051287363,0.2108337564 -ETT_1D,0.2644144200245168,0.2599714581,0.2626770496,0.2710211303,0.2572776704,0.272930550496092,0.2597752993,0.2612366718,0.272102609926132,0.2678886959,0.2705343050875462,0.300295241,0.2697927874176534,0.3002489369,0.2738553924,0.2703842771,0.2669855109,0.2669855109,0.3448764451,0.3129149392,0.3256112824,0.3227852614,0.364606939,0.3320927514,0.3635917917,0.3295882505,0.3649904644,0.360480833,0.3642035745,0.3538102937,0.3621092269 -ETT_1H,0.1805280555208946,0.1929432618,0.1900495573,0.1892332611,0.1885384479,0.1900401517515014,0.1905551921,0.1923900276,0.1991839804884336,0.1916135933,0.1893380292085086,0.1991423882,0.2030089983134973,0.2028562173,0.1902070524,0.1940800065,0.205947624,0.205947624,0.2104472639,0.2146782131,0.2123622054,0.2620350459,0.216892047,0.2275419988,0.2780071233,0.2765730888,0.3554423083,0.387905148,0.2597090183,0.4903424451,0.5136644934 -ETT_1W,0.4079933151747325,0.4180629794,0.4144705894,0.4029936945,0.4173539396,0.4115323076224085,0.3873589951,0.3834384081,0.4043071272727572,0.3998766684,0.3953506701352448,0.4156744779,0.3800696590547889,0.4188145741,0.3886729217,0.375313951,0.3737931632,0.3737931632,0.5013663683,0.4643316617,0.4457754737,0.449544632,0.5017324149,0.4761461152,0.6083512572,0.522257355,0.4577441808,0.4986518854,0.4614224693,0.4614224693,0.4961494692 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0287231140202164,0.0294338099,0.0294150126,0.0292914529,0.0295119101,0.029343550974428,0.0299183023,0.029926259,0.029113317812325,0.0292182088,0.0301344834396815,0.0292334826,0.0302701209290482,0.0296560044,0.0313239292,0.0316128852,0.0304002738,0.0304002738,0.0318705254,0.0326217509,0.0341395852,0.0310410872,0.0355857727,0.0306907047,0.0458887826,0.0451010415,0.0311914855,0.0325479384,0.0397058571,0.0919262659,0.0978699313 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0478382953555857,0.0547949407,0.0536904784,0.0542176932,0.053951477,0.0565443850452321,0.0566445643,0.0562291392,0.0571353928490012,0.0529133781,0.0537704605887989,0.055307924,0.060038525,0.05699313,0.0599025567,0.0636305787,0.0662523771,0.0662523771,0.0566262652,0.0664487294,0.0600405194,0.1489143854,0.0616685513,0.1009451454,0.0786934842,0.0759691755,0.2388070951,0.2528752457,0.1307515175,0.3038598558,0.3206568541 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0591418660470684,0.0574848175,0.0585774695,0.0606371472,0.0593876316,0.0596519653250292,0.0586603039,0.0594513843,0.0773047333192915,0.0643709018,0.0664147813105226,0.0656437853,0.087859362,0.066720663,0.0606569718,0.0595339252,0.0781392419,0.0781392419,0.0603027556,0.0714930823,0.0645059699,0.1151931596,0.0592252566,0.1111745205,0.0927548554,0.0936457159,0.1270606325,0.121969972,0.081199984,0.1936404655,0.210202567 -M_DENSE_1D,0.0724420123842481,0.0712116931,0.0820707894,0.0844952343,0.0858611805,0.0886700731435607,0.0900759525,0.0821914373,0.0779291246383927,0.0773717212,0.0843839746633145,0.0799768636,0.078658646,0.0808116118,0.0906172569,0.0934896105,0.0817335467,0.0817335467,0.0763471457,0.0844361527,0.1097093144,0.1131422313,0.1047206831,0.1051447846,0.098169453,0.0957110443,0.1323504646,0.1459052349,0.1367572058,0.2323397334,0.2363624963 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1035700796233188,0.1198308475,0.1206878319,0.1189427286,0.1208815859,0.1234841621996513,0.1239245022,0.1208851977,0.1182210877017234,0.1143436057,0.1140121652331344,0.1197384744,0.1251987350445681,0.1325863612,0.1265983434,0.1484773567,0.1209575592,0.1209575592,0.1177044596,0.1339606641,0.1212766207,0.2346087824,0.1196581335,0.2211301613,0.1423458044,0.1469697816,12.8518608055,0.7918015548,0.2731296131,0.84829413,0.8946267050000001 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.1874775574670878,0.1878149403,0.1881049346,0.1880418965,0.1878794648,0.1892348284603172,0.1897678128,0.1889248146,0.1906272257459292,0.1894354422,0.1899394490049618,0.1925528369,0.195287114680846,0.2065247801,0.1917754095,0.191384151,0.197437778,0.197437778,0.1956325057,0.2118998785,0.193562555,0.2672484294,0.1945023612,0.2672484294,0.2575205372,0.2672559319,0.9991056751,0.2434722417,0.2672484294,0.6619538384,0.6804962505000001 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1351619927601946,0.1329118955,0.1293773273,0.1290500386,0.1283504497,0.1326306384216551,0.1300923261,0.1368741884,0.1364035796594594,0.1394973218,0.1384147632287415,0.1423549,0.1420842058727177,0.1779786853,0.1399881244,0.1347664611,0.1447212932,0.1447212932,0.2566667088,0.1764986928,0.3277689026,0.2449234495,0.1674335532,0.2187159408,0.2283900417,0.2222432176,4510502977.541462,0.3559208311,0.2910650923,0.9157567452,1.0097515601 -australian_tourism,0.0792575843739194,0.0714093581,0.0825056311,0.0787500875,0.0827576086,0.0800695621998885,0.0957395858,0.0861105624,0.073639417171522,0.0761527549,0.111849531136479,0.0939951849,0.084948436,0.0731324108,0.104615521,0.1125261016,0.1053900171,0.1140447009,0.0832723657,0.0836038879,0.0952111131,0.0747720206,0.1181869043,0.0866216851,0.1127308877,0.1144700197,0.0760110551,0.0823354804,0.0905870679,0.1922018184,0.2141353268 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2349371640053956,0.2574968709,0.2244547152,0.2111626143,0.2192658523,0.2806886765297424,0.2547160692,0.3395892761,0.2891392135182087,0.3062390652,0.3253060683159817,0.317324097,0.3064375358196253,0.3537159678,0.4205278839,0.3127927463,0.3259227696,0.3259227696,1.2105309626,0.4028991374,0.330934658,1.2739406783,0.4886973323,1.4044947576,0.4824019434,0.6596941917,1.4288888476,1.354213156,2.0969368334,1.3379066539,1.3508241874 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.2541855130100661,0.3972980474,0.5406422775,0.4756971941,0.6450790756,1.2323583695636575,0.7756543999000001,1.2724528657,0.2942824648852123,0.7904916189000001,1.1306881082490916,0.3375026133,1.3284335511794023,0.8602604906,1.0777923479,1.0471463511,1.2750077013,1.2750077013,1.099758403,0.5857720953000001,0.2968753511,1.5128526942,1.7906402169,1.8771775481,1.2816541795,1.2750427219,1.6113720868,1.6069322946,2.2877704897,1.4507804454,1.7316491341 -boomlet_1062,0.4531764852243817,0.4575715706,0.4463541158,0.4462456214,0.4464520402,0.4647639706114732,0.4511908987,0.462540047,0.4580502677279735,0.4710064002,0.4594364859704334,0.5207087351,0.5215730971016691,0.4806963473,0.4560730466,0.4532902104,0.4872201342,0.540923993,0.4692609374,0.5396810790000001,0.4948762907,0.7822110512,0.5042712811,0.5907259586,0.6947080201,0.7310192884000001,1.0658179183,1.0855392662,0.7418110943,3.1996986673,3.464647215 -boomlet_1209,0.2431710131772632,0.2624618736,0.2336539477,0.2330213724,0.2347769724,0.2691416577649201,0.238664163,0.2759885512,0.2787792943876104,0.2609844697,0.2683545689290885,0.2599845364,0.2987229104819696,0.3729714881,0.2510785204,0.2509175761,0.2879466627,0.301826322,0.2777961689,0.2937933689,0.2816179357,1.0148176094,0.3602056404,0.4535022053,0.3974305495,0.4040311759,0.5015055777,1.1157526247,0.5015055777,1.328999921,1.4420052382000002 -boomlet_1225,0.0971851677731071,0.0982049927,0.0954240786,0.0953608891,0.0955606494,0.0984204901498371,0.0962455277,0.0990409314,0.104774613205639,0.1000748977,0.1008051203297584,0.1111818845,0.102271642507924,0.117595053,0.0969513138,0.098032793,0.1024577962,0.1066372427,0.1083552458,0.1172112941,0.0998310841,0.1451941336,0.1011485766,0.12260998,0.1300694604,0.1335584832,0.1651551358,0.1711256418,0.3809038981,0.3809038981,0.3876340759 -boomlet_1230,0.2452440785346197,0.2619779044,0.2374973345,0.2369084617,0.237018003,0.26440938884331,0.241320235,0.2653064284,0.2822216866653908,0.2547608466,0.2655885191852967,0.2600824059,0.2930098247119032,0.3872938531,0.247533868,0.2516059078,0.2744689054,0.3010213735,0.2772630345,0.2814650284,0.2774274362,0.9994018454,0.3432215502,0.4477425115,0.3315908095,0.3572037361,228079607857629.03,1.1951987922,0.5006062673,1.749087496,1.8955551069 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-boomlet_2187,0.2325323847472518,0.2318940214,0.2220159855,0.2221525028,0.223165607,0.2335178119690479,0.2273386278,0.2304085286,0.259871483175814,0.2575487453,0.2327853008362263,0.2415090596,0.2394083595246066,0.2968289885,0.2443697139,0.2347347998,0.2578882697,0.2524757438,0.2565067123,0.2800640842,0.2938253489,0.4312238248,0.3124107364,0.4412020453,0.3042627344,0.305323937,0.445695455,0.4740037124,0.569989729,1.0418096521,1.049295268 -boomlet_285,0.1377046753691119,0.1346407886,0.1238820031,0.1234825373,0.1251907933,0.1453486610567968,0.1298710644,0.148143136,0.1500551836785001,0.1683399577,0.1474649558740103,0.2390206753,0.1550531614226526,0.1471872203,0.1332978724,0.1369389616,0.1889532567,0.2234209762,0.1894922508,0.2244579194,0.21729835,0.3030251372,0.2155289637,0.2917086037,0.2097047283,0.2104575885,0.3012758228,0.3165758913,1.2032068554,1.2032068554,1.2258270457 -boomlet_619,0.217032856816789,0.2302330542,0.195585374,0.1948278258,0.1976896456,0.2270239567779028,0.2060479072,0.2471279568,0.2317217825076673,0.2458341339,0.2428036358627953,0.4334947114,0.2591773047142831,0.232811959,0.2161466212,0.2202544188,0.2356420104,0.3764453393,0.2181665546,0.2649462131,0.2270142354,0.6585898854000001,0.2162911272,0.4527380943,0.4760077805,1.1986603046,0.7635945062,0.6993259862,0.9678549923,0.9678549923,0.9877621571 -boomlet_772,0.1297039720105453,0.133101379,0.1244245684,0.1242450137,0.1253230551,0.1353156135299467,0.12852107,0.1366825739,0.1418676127916021,0.1358824184,0.1380608773830061,0.1613185863,0.1443361895980726,0.1557498583,0.1308470643,0.1334271117,0.1437870275,0.155831971,0.1594582758,0.1611776721,0.1420780794,0.4436068427,0.1500861487,0.3102148884,0.1798892395,0.1854859464,233223016.47921944,0.5422949312,0.9858607218,0.9858607218,1.0040136571 -boomlet_963,0.3087802625592574,0.3166849574,0.3099802004,0.3064831724,0.308619475,0.317416330722044,0.3113023917,0.3257730396,0.3554307158649718,0.3291269599,0.3319885885326104,0.3424340999999999,0.3422623396128161,0.3758250987,0.3150750398,0.3185355621,0.3420300574,0.3596501241,0.3637814001,0.3456713575,0.331166608,0.6331985560000001,0.3449654206,0.5019102045,0.4813266328,0.4468457359,0.7424657095,0.7165913671,0.8113458731000001,0.8113458731000001,0.8256079502 -ecdc_ili,0.3212287340998438,0.3096012701,0.3768001645,0.3682858362,0.3760473761,0.3396623011592334,0.370964991,0.3706244119,0.340187972155641,0.3434282743,0.4024817611328705,0.2894218856,0.3595858341033879,0.3285141119,0.3959245404,0.4016054767,0.3850819864,0.4167010576,0.5339076574,0.4694310556,0.4343346537,0.542736267,0.4234147823,0.5348657716,0.4142561218,0.4321302967,0.5818744538,0.5760490117,0.55470151,0.55470151,0.5751070376 -entsoe_15T,0.0374543519159225,0.0332921944,0.031057604,0.032596973,0.0308313594,0.0299915186203087,0.037019735,0.03370606,0.0520785391352681,0.0334792124,0.0353919091493609,0.0331917966,0.0324571116175732,0.034292722,0.0413367722,0.0461939652,0.0343344442,0.0362665583,0.0356088535,0.0499695365,0.0338209899,0.056612433,0.056612433,0.056612433,0.0672225595,0.0565863133,0.313985467,0.04302748,0.056612433,0.115491565,0.1262425675 -entsoe_1H,0.0170978174900986,0.0261903902,0.0248996699,0.023857759,0.0243409378,0.0301016405209215,0.0265039239,0.0293722588,0.025239896577241,0.029016943,0.0278706109218268,0.0369877853,0.0295101891685257,0.0270659752,0.0302629636,0.0319005016,0.033285571,0.0281751907,0.0405866666,0.050980506,0.0530802855,0.0660394337,0.0369285607,0.0666871832,0.0410886758,0.0340190019,0.1446894284,0.0693891454,0.0798215743,0.1448301709,0.1529602095 -entsoe_30T,0.0367187626229072,0.0290675118,0.0223879477,0.0231075017,0.024570865,0.0342792270553542,0.025097932,0.0314140317,0.0445350341243368,0.0388367365,0.0331659552762197,0.0299812196,0.032983912,0.0331614495,0.0302188271,0.036241917,0.0318440586,0.0321248654,0.0393913235,0.0485585461,0.0383760424,0.0612245671,0.0362258754,0.0731621073,0.0513033062,0.0375924974,0.1815717143,0.0571609073,0.0725922166,0.1142494541,0.1132384603 -epf_be,0.085628671642939,0.0901568527,0.0948601444,0.0952412087,0.093115602,0.0957745773429249,0.1006279492,0.0962218884,0.0924509066869714,0.0904647786,0.0854822184520839,0.1069107573,0.091655865,0.0955200867,0.1056021358,0.1056879737,0.0968269743,0.106932535,0.1074787897,0.116974555,0.0981962206,0.2109049118,0.1098670692,0.1868416275,0.131789225,0.1508564422,0.2658805243,0.2582438045,0.2012625839,0.5357212996,0.5396597547 -epf_de,0.2962369152452068,0.2407177006,0.4601042378,0.4672038155,0.4683589436,0.2187945782836869,0.4684737795,0.4684522911,0.2506965721624185,0.4775486462,0.2783999762304116,0.4419724801,0.3025435172509976,0.2518831942,0.5439422258000001,0.4621323091,0.4585770884,0.4643713184,0.2383553645,0.5102784096,0.20301509,0.4882155131,0.2673988947,0.5432797568000001,0.6438459348000001,0.4304549385,0.5287818092000001,0.6490481058,0.5919143997,0.5286529229,0.5344012403 -epf_fr,0.0498886783998062,0.0548184758,0.0627413349,0.0628034148,0.0640514743,0.0523390454943642,0.0693790181,0.063925129,0.0549769522291364,0.0640304463,0.055551243143944,0.0625904816,0.06438319,0.0489318759,0.0687564497,0.069329218,0.0646047834,0.0684544774,0.0590774782,0.0719692742,0.050103017,0.1676462056,0.0608180576,0.171487674,0.0897236718,0.0875960389,0.1386675644,0.2296495477,0.1818024024,0.5500836951,0.5542629368 -epf_np,0.0324799362557875,0.0297236562,0.0444557228,0.0435167492,0.0435206839,0.027714667237253,0.044517994,0.0438147562,0.0286831665771985,0.0519221,0.0362786514786046,0.0478681768,0.035176084,0.0300774999,0.0468630667,0.0514617867,0.0419786745,0.0445199614,0.0315756309,0.0428252373,0.0288200218,0.0573880566,0.0371443189,0.0636813178,0.0541779055,0.0580048531,0.086372811,0.0578512541,0.0691889058,0.0868798682,0.0869585172 -epf_pjm,0.0713599869857466,0.0667749027,0.073580878,0.0709860111,0.0713664621,0.0654851700023029,0.0749215636,0.071403604,0.0666314027281418,0.0757086151,0.068320535667113,0.0931649074,0.074506095,0.0747918069,0.0795523282,0.0738735407,0.0766169612,0.0739331273,0.0601940101,0.084093308,0.0640765474,0.086260965,0.0619307319,0.0855296797,0.1043853204,0.1053596408,0.1606961463,0.1068456977,0.0908421956,0.1641666586,0.1656245554 -ercot_1D,0.0574456077229779,0.059742223,0.0594182305,0.0610870289,0.0586035995,0.0581843058902675,0.0608222803,0.0583644776,0.059748412824441,0.0590120341,0.0618152012896454,0.0677790412,0.062049638,0.0684168152,0.0622004808,0.0622512311,0.0637608291,0.0620146905,0.0672958728,0.0665392831,0.0838270056,0.0936050684,0.0669529065,0.0865494548,0.0842841008,0.0841483377,0.1027502478,0.1055339552,0.1044921679,0.1043182678,0.1051661229 -ercot_1H,0.0505747249970507,0.0517757176,0.0551108047,0.0555156919,0.0569035998,0.0570341696300243,0.0561599381,0.0542294904,0.0566087326387195,0.0584985426,0.0569111333958258,0.0690541192,0.0593544619029159,0.0618277813,0.0555308677,0.0578080842,0.0563341027,0.0597259069,0.0571174625,0.0625128045,0.0594370003,0.0642267414,0.0682466944,0.0597358018,0.0757580693,0.0767356717,0.1494485063,0.0646341807,0.0682466944,0.1331050238,0.1354763369 -ercot_1M,0.0385739810597007,0.0374032877,0.0372743857,0.0366225782,0.0368971338,0.0395091153240838,0.0386906414,0.0419160577,0.0376060321528297,0.0380629909,0.0409954693355806,0.0369871672,0.038116942,0.0371193551,0.0530202312,0.04260245,0.0509930124,0.0398626935,0.046621763,0.0434627402,0.0473243439,0.0375336712,0.0418023356,0.0388325707,0.0550054836,0.0562941835,0.0371511279,0.0470765052,0.0427842586,0.2106942527,0.2307212042 -ercot_1W,0.045241030955042,0.0461530362,0.0448595907,0.045468704,0.0457371809,0.0463193341174064,0.0460305391,0.0457429263,0.0461981248612772,0.0465659059,0.0475555994204084,0.0474641923,0.0470696070802426,0.0503533756,0.0515345865,0.047263365,0.0502061941,0.0467287195,0.0562783142,0.0583864951,0.0520912746,0.1138242996,0.0499525576,0.1129826874,0.0666738599,0.0667497027,0.1134717335,0.1163159858,0.1143459151,0.1143459151,0.1147730701 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1145513409756329,0.1111436042,0.1168536377,0.1168442309,0.1215724533,0.1282745030253956,0.1304018233,0.1242660249,0.1316709729696958,0.1184216613,0.139788365244254,0.1335502347,0.1366714831005482,0.1178973226,0.143982699,0.1396156429,0.1278709711,0.1418629323,0.1460581146,0.1353609503,0.1427451258,0.1606240879,0.1449535179,0.1647292421,0.1568033495,0.1604637963,0.1672181851,0.1778642628,0.2375760783,0.407924062,0.4110111744 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1156802880394432,0.1214689688,0.125016244,0.1268337189,0.125466025,0.1003219158781188,0.1277282603,0.1421527991,0.0956066633468445,0.1508910378,0.14266084855696,0.1339783194,0.134550828215653,0.0943302395,0.1390587722,0.1345474296,0.1725604577,0.1852146109,0.1403603984,0.2222006124,0.1734554139,0.1265352804,0.1734554139,0.1314480379,0.2186079186,0.2631369718,0.1328922998,0.1244588255,0.1715121002,0.1701131596,0.1843808732 -favorita_stores_1W,0.094951191974104,0.1088586482,0.1084604221,0.1086135061,0.1106568431,0.0978730915756015,0.1101220279,0.1134128786,0.0979269717117583,0.109472936,0.107819330558319,0.1184634283,0.1090090717682276,0.0990307784,0.1222012023,0.1187495935,0.1243048273,0.1268154753,0.137616023,0.1312294599,0.1439432317,0.1336292353,0.1438160383,0.1331314369,0.1313115845,0.1374015655,0.1429768358,0.1407957933,0.1608274594,0.1608274594,0.1626164075 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0559095388851023,0.0493905059,0.0597569804,0.0585469662,0.0613257258,0.0689886887751918,0.0690001943,0.0677041912,0.0683705151055696,0.0735763955,0.0687625447713059,0.0735763955,0.076640723,0.0597601794,0.0735763955,0.0779731992,0.0735763955,0.0735763955,0.0871645751,0.0710714949,0.1249546747,0.0949008641,0.0886693646,0.1055051906,0.0803527194,0.0820513813,0.0944759339,0.0991455647,0.1403339152,0.2372471037,0.2388998483 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0645106730814582,0.0604582892,0.0714437498,0.0695020926,0.0711058515,0.0657638258517205,0.0709101213,0.0683964379,0.0683309621120336,0.0642577124,0.0718040249275297,0.0634107492,0.073175635,0.070987216,0.0771189506,0.073264901,0.0756335167,0.0799691925,0.0862070337,0.0834713904,0.1104679984,0.070584588,0.0862070337,0.0776326593,0.1003374601,0.1032656271,0.0709936959,0.0829960481,0.0855815697,0.1052862109,0.1152703352 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0470387048767083,0.0471234517,0.0474269501,0.0472425707,0.0483930301,0.0522559813466423,0.0511042722,0.0492598373,0.0535137810819275,0.0528246687,0.0556749522792705,0.0460898192,0.056355939,0.0548143302,0.0576286349,0.0561099801,0.05694461,0.0528246687,0.0655290829,0.0632163955,0.0676774676,0.0648065089,0.0723931655,0.0648478227,0.0633303921,0.0649015275,0.0694461919,0.0703094334,0.0783787894,0.0783787894,0.0802804813 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0634323367398085,0.0668234172,0.0601752215,0.0594535568,0.0623804609,0.071483381693202,0.0650855324,0.0670834959,0.0738429289824919,0.0750783838,0.0778836800870543,0.0750783838,0.073665786,0.0690469795,0.0750783838,0.0709791938,0.0750783838,0.0750783838,0.2571046813,0.0954701869,0.1719437399,0.1051946757,0.1151105177,0.1336604251,0.0787889724,0.0853956646,0.0757646767,0.1182489158,0.2073879584,0.1174362958,0.1155920484 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0590118157218343,0.0658449,0.0614460757,0.0612483994,0.0618735966,0.0646369179562897,0.0624999144,0.0651736736,0.070834336752446,0.0689005701,0.0679208799057953,0.0689005701,0.064978633,0.0696180895,0.0689005701,0.0649675888,0.0689005701,0.0689005701,0.096670918,0.0758142866,0.0936650658,0.0780002055,0.0792368701,0.0859787221,0.0902616065,0.0896123899,0.0754502178,0.0815239103,0.119592083,0.0816199937,0.0813235213 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.1149091501179147,0.13493629,0.1178834587,0.1230588675,0.1203868337,0.1193291423884141,0.1212280711,0.1205702322,0.13478856788472,0.1290291476,0.1233043186361284,0.1455614395,0.1333583074646012,0.1191207889,0.1108418954,0.1246971363,0.1271824648,0.1238446163,0.199311753,0.1631968012,0.2178025348,0.1373877838,0.2240148661,0.1474873423,0.1851033107,0.1863665626,0.1365938852,0.1482369083,0.1941921549,0.1537726617,0.1492650929 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.0800379989339701,0.0877492891,0.0819398403,0.0813262848,0.0821352866,0.0819940181024104,0.0823549396,0.0847291191,0.0918962174469524,0.0852353396,0.0864807339810937,0.0904632042,0.085237494,0.0897443934,0.0835998942,0.0857005368,0.0863520335,0.0870314598,0.1224400202,0.1012011908,0.1143069694,0.0918310561,0.1040481161,0.0955504799,0.1081842347,0.1087879793,0.0949233782,0.0954220424,0.1198022216,0.0963745296,0.0950284899 -gvar,0.0149135270481668,0.0149820687,0.0145238675,0.0144267612,0.0146124185,0.0144489400974888,0.0146511705,0.0150792847,0.0155006620792276,0.0152665936,0.0174768526080282,0.0149023625,0.0148827469289249,0.0164066749,0.014902948,0.0149922867,0.015061142,0.015482776,0.0192650378,0.0185296964,0.0168077777,0.0162937715,0.0163818337,0.0169170494,0.0180220621,0.0178566904,0.0159433726,0.0166324554,0.0212211567,0.0176762713,0.0174836229 -hermes,0.0022046741306736,0.00225818,0.0023445304,0.0023507897,0.0023660122,0.0025064943975988,0.0024907526,0.0024187939,0.0023043540524169,0.0022928048,0.0028012679885011,0.0023074145,0.002408262,0.0023893872,0.00361165,0.0027401694,0.0026712263,0.0025240351,0.0032054229,0.0031453384,0.0035223817,0.0061269214,0.0045975711,0.0050407278,0.0045409315,0.0045605713,0.0073879456,0.0068258834,0.0087083111,0.0087083111,0.0090940295 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5575709501102303,0.5714809959,0.5676590461000001,0.5619234998,0.5668575799000001,0.5620525201765236,0.5704484356,0.5556084899,0.5679830350408462,0.5615462266,0.5731624741708208,0.5696128289,0.5676603822116071,0.593064982,0.5601555502000001,0.5651435622000001,0.5634020932,0.5634020932,0.5745797836000001,0.647815962,0.5754783046,0.8177303568000001,0.5825354928,0.6915383975,0.9140827947,0.6910062183,0.9358165943,0.9689367576,1.1222145629,1.6764214745,1.6911406181 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.3653665527719577,0.3648561995,0.3645064954,0.3651241862,0.3670778617,0.3701408011985547,0.3712940507,0.3675267984,0.370833974534256,0.36900549,0.3752628487003487,0.3665408623,0.3688751656463698,0.3729757571,0.3702988275,0.3766578963,0.3762527696,0.3762527696,0.4016935991,0.4228486488,0.3873929843,0.465201591,0.3962245576,0.4672185483,0.4416683753,0.4443902803,7.827597326,0.4883602497,0.9260072924,0.9260072924,0.9465583798 -hospital,0.0721313513954295,0.0748078224,0.0721816897,0.0722748026,0.0716670687,0.0716004242403598,0.0720618303,0.0726720337,0.0695284518782354,0.0714240645,0.073332229834021,0.0732403369,0.073154992,0.0744122446,0.0782417064,0.0751424692,0.075323756,0.075323756,0.0962332051,0.0900986355,0.0876369973,0.0749195627,0.0763542764,0.0845424144,0.1298282849,0.125397441,0.0759570393,0.0813819141,0.0783920641,0.1042062258,0.1105393325 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.4118160565933825,0.4112482571,0.4110203098,0.4111777319,0.4112639343,0.4111663451111241,0.4113671478,0.4117757476,0.4111778841250772,0.4124642646,0.4116784038979195,0.4173749544,0.4126385362604453,0.4170910343,0.4128087161,0.4114047438,0.4120897737,0.4125280896,0.4178139666,0.4526293478,0.4157163956,0.4131275601,0.4185439912,0.4121681665,0.5358010025000001,0.5356471103,0.4122712944,0.4263733393,0.6361459777,0.9837276528,0.9916738225 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.1637148036225885,0.1624167729,0.1631238396,0.1630574141,0.1629510239,0.1630899295121846,0.1628616325,0.1647817223,0.1637294128599395,0.1632100947,0.1629657829083264,0.1652550692,0.1640475363842089,0.1640290481,0.1685465774,0.1649940217,0.1651659257,0.1652841679,0.1638441779,0.1802484199,0.1672985953,0.1630497452,0.1730808569,0.1631143082,0.2980487663,0.3185996994,0.1628325575,0.1682700421,0.2969374562,0.2969374562,0.3078008058 -jena_weather_10T,0.2074284678513192,0.2528507588,0.2179958325,0.2254821538,0.2109903321,0.2345376664505892,0.2058012416,0.2661828375,0.2249865452272112,0.2127668735,0.23018880972155,0.2065601206,0.2598751866564842,0.2673525155,0.2370029627,0.2186955544,0.2625552837,0.2625552837,0.2861270721,0.3371179261,0.249506229,2.0838172673,0.3312178723,1.1999625736,0.6868432012,2.3233309146,3.1495387185,3.5724878985,1.7057621919,3.6828586054,3.85529109 -jena_weather_1D,0.222512649114982,0.2257062563,0.2347111941,0.2351874789,0.2290670891,0.2217936613400121,0.2296760039,0.2210204491,0.2310330886224535,0.2185061968,0.2254655632693532,0.2192679771,0.2310045308327635,0.2376748711,0.2243943728,0.2343058561,0.2254046561,0.2254046561,0.3380311951,0.2665635899,0.3253639756,0.3084284928,0.353442622,0.3017046195,0.4845484094,0.4935773805,0.3511726073,0.352949988,0.4719762387,0.6992484433,0.7361988020000001 -jena_weather_1H,0.2085923694916343,0.2250019598,0.209700068,0.2042789585,0.2064620178,0.222315575214421,0.2150192859,0.2168159034,0.2207381037462216,0.2233014541,0.2472251655369299,0.2046475096,0.2213662473568811,0.2369006949,0.2068558167,0.2257041757,0.2340991589,0.2340991589,0.2755533982,0.4350680693,0.2493529242,1.0549343053,0.2542087262,0.8256929906,0.4259697277,0.541001766,1.408450418,1.6859107035,1.2878361858,1.6601789319,1.6730314794 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.3262501134856253,1.2012688912,1.2423053558,1.2928265833,1.2611561204,1.2868898999991945,1.3449398697,1.3753457154,1.672279038449243,1.3753457154,1.6418426155115022,1.3753457154,1.752141317044975,2.4259698063,1.3753457154,1.2791393932,1.3753457154,1.3753457154,1.3596535498,1.3753457154,2.8127015346,2.3739032941,2.4486052091,2.4275642145000003,1.9401393917,2.2259673328,2.5986419336,2.5543058637,3.4658735195,2.676092095,2.9246115805 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.5567758978359908,0.5599962195,0.5518483318,0.5548469306,0.5591092906,0.5579945436596108,0.5539245901000001,0.5566213231,0.5664458017834574,0.5527344226,0.5602818704909623,0.5781322911,0.5525175952572586,0.5800627619000001,0.5565322541000001,0.5950165469,0.5630864115,0.5631888802,0.7276780822000001,0.6469029607,0.7320689666,0.592077645,0.735336376,0.5843812531,0.8453182764,0.8151955287,0.6089510673,0.5966451509,0.7506998103,0.9265198158,0.9484262949 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,1.3824896278150998,1.3117733464,1.2947478209,1.3827988006,1.3214301757,1.3775525766620973,1.3760568548,1.3401124409,1.6401003171211754,1.6757596584,1.5261374033891155,1.2078263133,1.4778116236967531,2.3192371863,1.3749485744,1.3847179122,1.2046794696,2.2656435372,2.3146349588,1.6183676077,2.6203798688,2.2310516685,2.3874851537,2.185096759,1.4766293954,2.1400670186,2.6468743605,2.5972049694,3.2580293026,2.5790907347000003,2.6373925558 -m5_1D,0.5450423775115465,0.5553520672,0.5445193467,0.5449869045,0.5455199783,0.5531421979846279,0.5493187376,0.5522750547,0.5503297168377588,0.5619946768,0.5566736850531714,0.5619946768,0.5648300489501039,0.8588793502000001,0.5619946768,0.5545512032000001,0.5619946768,0.5619946768,0.5589515992,0.6369837787,0.6194780292000001,0.6095963829000001,0.6137512997,0.611489809,0.7365313918,0.7321054765,0.6156373922,0.6265285782000001,0.8588793502000001,1.3529814741,1.3656864865 -m5_1M,0.3319131502606157,0.3477280433,0.3732511687,0.3670678202,0.3522163978,0.3354460321933755,0.3479056364,0.3446529974,0.3375876335222311,0.3370295405,0.3485392176554592,0.3526156954,0.3413591083938118,0.3464554836,0.364759255,0.3584938045,0.3456589364,0.3566383823,0.3504555646,0.3886462021,0.3564240248,0.3701231937,0.405287954,0.380094291,0.4386853163,0.4413139749,0.4320692413,0.4195249159,0.4285745192,0.4471596242,0.5002848742 -m5_1W,0.3262711504712344,0.3375480209,0.3406208433,0.3479004073,0.3381479716,0.3324906642349929,0.3339785495,0.3359465585,0.3343646289662474,0.3409590155,0.3322634550624491,0.3437600868,0.3383157235375967,0.3385700451,0.3367183667,0.3391548847,0.3361267514,0.3409590155,0.3273512854,0.3622685986,0.3419488384,0.3617149107,0.3798203062,0.3580006782,0.4221414941,0.4239931518,0.3728147004,0.3767071031,0.5198944018,0.5198944018,0.5321822362 -proenfo_gfc12,0.0457801007251794,0.0555966972,0.0711665266,0.0717016149,0.0704471025,0.0772014287340019,0.0751443412,0.0771150803,0.0500168982494891,0.077263494,0.0627536054588804,0.077263494,0.073629607,0.0695191123,0.077263494,0.0789964426,0.077263494,0.077263494,0.109475236,0.0732963269,0.1147079588,0.118165235,0.0834358203,0.0987456528,0.089761018,0.0963190563,0.2072982242,0.1250899583,0.1088404136,0.2075379036,0.2175193025 -proenfo_gfc14,0.0131724023279047,0.0210605929,0.0327314094,0.0331126025,0.0341281505,0.0180212465557794,0.0346144869,0.0353901819,0.0208825726093903,0.0375513457,0.0220640779404208,0.0375513457,0.0297309235656802,0.0248587648,0.0375513457,0.0391112092,0.0375513457,0.0375513457,0.0196653184,0.0204786531,0.0262980361,0.0444153796,0.0192630497,0.0464290142,0.0294872713,0.0338078076,0.0544938011,0.0519159577,0.0529491741,0.158759622,0.1683589624 -proenfo_gfc17,0.0262016980255714,0.0315349159,0.0571762013,0.0563933826,0.0567771902,0.0445276015985301,0.0582943263,0.0597007945,0.0342982410932926,0.0608284875,0.0368392416232347,0.0608284875,0.05130469,0.0441526054,0.0608284875,0.066556878,0.0608284875,0.0608284875,0.0898005308,0.0315794369,0.0937295777,0.0769925953,0.0718075959,0.0761960672,0.0460992665,0.0534558432,0.146648178,0.0769725348,0.089722227,0.1691034075,0.1777795868 -redset_15T,0.2183833254506963,0.2174028756,0.2149035463,0.2166346258,0.2215744903,0.2436289973810091,0.237406876,0.2431114555,0.2367960634074943,0.2501147517,0.232811809097555,0.2504545955,0.2464048710550986,0.2357018172,0.2517225668,0.2548341045,0.2504748238,0.2713077356,0.4862108215,0.2914044606,0.5103683634,0.4607365659,0.5103683634,0.4607365659,0.3616185106,0.3642203024,0.4607365659,0.9403750129,0.4607365659,1.565727146,1.6075485007 -redset_1H,0.1832232700016848,0.1754538486,0.1696635983,0.1690059871,0.1697630432,0.1894725250416545,0.1793620686,0.1792595699,0.1889198603442845,0.1953408447,0.1777527048097018,0.1755989654,0.2002164812414735,0.1901149251,0.1905135003,0.1962638598,0.189262175,0.2027229088,0.4380179901,0.2287683337,0.4380179901,0.3644260201,0.4380179901,0.347358315,0.2696877066,0.2869469335,3.3022819259,0.471399676,0.4120467256,0.8881015739,0.8935980202 -redset_5T,0.248992162508184,0.2706931879,0.2522817162,0.2485814134,0.2538017132,0.2983069096018002,0.2607775031,0.3109114114,0.2837469344452893,0.288140782,0.2826983096437561,0.3193539479,0.3641107114266437,0.294846188,0.279035311,0.2938771626,0.3116496574,0.3706331476,0.3340524808,0.3372367613,0.394998386,0.9331343205,0.5103815022,0.6814341656,0.5022592368000001,0.4982754129,0.5026322375,1.1479851264,0.5026322375,2.8198686089,3.0482376442 -restaurant,0.2802224918337458,0.2820261405,0.2875333554,0.2874544178,0.2911420585,0.2824961094842074,0.2920942716,0.282683528,0.283353323307,0.2808265082,0.2931650492765471,0.2908753698,0.2852746979843229,0.2867067669,0.2931914764,0.2977027964,0.2874369433,0.2874369433,0.2950146147,0.3121784735,0.2893609167,0.2987514342,0.3005850855,0.3174475777,0.4065274887,0.4090550588,0.4313426382,0.3228884373,0.4263793897,0.7194392994000001,0.7547545077000001 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.0428078055706984,0.0453576139,0.0497401039,0.0476137085,0.0493031585,0.049793418294822,0.0535962101,0.046778087,0.0496631721422994,0.0473405217,0.052330684682142,0.0489494437,0.0485478709347659,0.0526118659,0.0531669466,0.0537647303,0.0454924381,0.0495487283,0.0562165091,0.0570594271,0.0802310287,0.0551855368,0.0887183021,0.0603755941,0.0554603887,0.0590804501,0.0637016666,0.0607226711,0.0730389023,0.1384185627,0.1410173561 -rohlik_orders_1W,0.0408886851391098,0.0419834037,0.0457701047,0.0453016201,0.0450562846,0.0466190198883336,0.0460703459,0.0425926735,0.0464488188294073,0.0430425121,0.0487585230906917,0.0400357111,0.0481245669182812,0.0431551355,0.0489117702,0.0492587228,0.0512220728,0.047050427,0.0490160528,0.0608989622,0.0623338136,0.0465205011,0.0562292184,0.0471291762,0.0671116906,0.0468091036,0.046928104,0.0464560362,0.049864809,0.049864809,0.049767365 -rohlik_sales_1D,0.2263186304291012,0.2203668339,0.3187697926,0.3131468674,0.3246397825,0.2444361902753766,0.3349647247,0.3154378947,0.2197726190012544,0.2983877223,0.3212884910754363,0.3345277541,0.3191151897770108,0.2144150475,0.3348204538,0.3380616026,0.3202051989,0.3139840107,0.3639173875,0.3250144355,0.3606022602,0.3425447103,0.3839513912,0.3459201995,0.3365823494,0.3536696428,0.3543382966,0.3563233505,0.3727953998,0.4099413728,0.4141182186 -rohlik_sales_1W,0.1807461499424007,0.1860678419,0.2324107825,0.2652332743,0.2332533739,0.1772674772618465,0.2374216511,0.2252347071,0.1605688879104377,0.219683589,0.2377870496177253,0.2183951005,0.2136887716787791,0.1542504295,0.2347311917,0.2421377532,0.2364913465,0.2336631822,0.332339682,0.2594374504,0.332339682,0.2595910509,0.332339682,0.2670259076,0.2639455584,0.2987408672,4.0491052559,0.2655509055,0.3323396817,0.3323396817,0.3393924276 -rossmann_1D,0.1151232476925595,0.0954525644,0.1636378999,0.1620992466,0.1684007028,0.1390116583130554,0.1804052727,0.1837160416,0.0817942555484106,0.171116383,0.0860281886533325,0.1715812463,0.1793301304348752,0.0793567685,0.1931830123,0.186390301,0.1799313223,0.178806336,0.3174568942,0.1802362487,0.2900605131,0.1969177128,0.3174568942,0.1908416644,0.1095834619,0.1126136684,0.2028079674,0.291009868,0.3139894576,0.9388561818,0.9579696476 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b/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv index 5e8e8bac7f908f3487d65d02725076581dd7dca2..5d3e9d3aecd68462b8a8f5419d58e2814f30cada 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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0ecca77bc4be7c15780301e8dbbca3fda10ad18e..ef715e4df5ff594100a1647062180ee531dc43cc 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,FlowState,citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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a/tables/summaries.csv +++ b/tables/summaries.csv @@ -1685,6 +1685,106 @@ Sundial-Base,sundial,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE Sundial-Base,sundial,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.6825226706,0.0,133.395333519,1719.0,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.6825226706,4.0694291919,0.1067606712,0.0955702861,,{},4fbe5d4,, Sundial-Base,sundial,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.6015213365,0.0,180.122422217,2370.0,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.6015213365,1.7987773288,0.0145865259,0.0129798805,,{},4fbe5d4,, Sundial-Base,sundial,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,4.3603502979,0.0,28.539923844,356.0,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,4.3603502979,4.7392839763,0.1553527489,0.1403522964,,{},4fbe5d4,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.6366597782763881,0.0,8.833002624975052,110.0,70e6cce11b73757a,False,0.11.0.dev0,0.6366597782763881,0.7956725276410296,0.0652533628438593,0.0520174549894426,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 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'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.3104669943337471,0.0,49.15043437303393,1040.0,83721e76c6faf4a6,False,0.11.0.dev0,0.3104669943337471,0.4072183309121013,0.2835355227521592,0.2172268565087666,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,0.2895226996975069,0.0,65.01472745803767,1340.0,f6a344659a6a948e,False,0.11.0.dev0,0.2895226996975069,0.3370758193914719,0.1590398236258207,0.1346363534666543,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7255537508515502,0.0,25.63509616901865,560.0,5bbc9fb121124724,False,0.11.0.dev0,0.7255537508515502,0.8422417530605053,0.3947033552986386,0.325614725604912,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.365138565914525,0.0,0.9499526259314734,60.0,74fe4767146a4d96,False,0.11.0.dev0,3.365138565914525,4.026454708722861,0.0752881529308609,0.0622341950213474,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,1.9688849870599827,0.0,0.6540877490187995,60.0,d4ca154cc310644e,False,0.11.0.dev0,1.9688849870599827,2.447018326243229,0.1518356836837632,0.1225132708203266,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.2826322287455465,0.0,3.6688975430151913,1020.0,74fe4767146a4d96,False,0.11.0.dev0,5.2826322287455465,6.18324680359369,0.0780536826531263,0.0640563043593906,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.3963243499412363,0.0,1.907093083980726,1020.0,d4ca154cc310644e,False,0.11.0.dev0,3.3963243499412363,4.126863634821758,0.1079257369177304,0.0859023961673721,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.5587330340791776,0.0,1.3012679569947068,310.0,dee11a908eddc948,False,0.11.0.dev0,1.5587330340791776,1.85717416919694,0.0232736643474913,0.0202547955394886,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.8687457582071447,0.0,0.655338040960487,310.0,05aa7957a46336f0,False,0.11.0.dev0,1.8687457582071447,2.338509924007952,0.0361429586620979,0.0296431020198016,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,4.186575269980564,0.0,0.3380217490193899,310.0,34316f35c64781aa,False,0.11.0.dev0,4.186575269980564,5.144902886890928,0.0683048133091853,0.055287442945497,,{},,, +t0-beta,t0-beta,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5808244644939119,0.0,4.456063874036772,1980.0,d404e6be8d6f82fd,False,0.11.0.dev0,0.5808244644939119,0.7174401581625833,0.0185630411831934,0.0150880656111444,,{},,, TabPFN-TS-3,tabpfn-ts-3,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1379791799209271,0.0,648.1384447521123,280.0,087e55aa2b87745b,False,0.7.0,1.1379791799209271,1.3578458981957091,0.3355526428793763,0.272102609926132,,"{""max_context_length"": 32768, ""model_path"": ""tabpfn-v3-regressor-v3_20260506_timeseries.ckpt"", ""use_covariates"": true}",357bc23,, TabPFN-TS-3,tabpfn-ts-3,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.2520996503353903,0.0,141.96763375899172,70.0,f285b410fbbb9427,False,0.7.0,2.2520996503353903,2.644196438594287,0.520022349394661,0.4043071272727572,,"{""max_context_length"": 32768, ""model_path"": ""tabpfn-v3-regressor-v3_20260506_timeseries.ckpt"", ""use_covariates"": true}",357bc23,, TabPFN-TS-3,tabpfn-ts-3,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6672517167408398,0.0,10558.53978115,3230.0,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.6672517167408398,0.8318402755938443,0.0713651283937751,0.0571353928490012,,"{""max_context_length"": 32768, ""model_path"": ""tabpfn-v3-regressor-v3_20260506_timeseries.ckpt"", ""use_covariates"": true}",357bc23,, diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 4bd057a4e70683819a098a1795d0915ceb89933f..2110dc78176b39619852b95462df8104cbe15a29 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,86.74603174603173,39.4440219344844,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,82.46031746031744,37.85799069972645,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,79.12698412698413,35.77575884246357,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,67.69841269841271,34.106843589937796,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,67.69841269841271,29.050115763331195,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,67.22222222222221,29.325569671639194,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,66.11111111111111,28.75756667123792,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.16666666666667,33.645363857682895,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TS-ICL,63.0952380952381,32.64556461381777,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,62.53968253968254,28.470636641084333,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.063492063492056,27.784643347991,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -citras-fm,60.396825396825406,29.54497604021703,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.158730158730165,27.746780910077852,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,59.92063492063493,27.18964779800085,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.69841269841271,27.011208854073608,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -CatBoost,51.1904761904762,27.450740665065144,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,48.8888888888889,26.138069870715697,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.65079365079365,25.062514275946356,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,48.412698412698404,25.633108331049936,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,46.666666666666664,25.059586999925887,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.222222222222214,23.050755938875334,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.27777777777777,17.07188261534265,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TFT,35.31746031746031,16.610547189801082,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.82539682539682,13.580115395669367,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.888888888888882,11.019039468741898,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,28.809523809523807,14.551541760519592,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -AutoETS,27.777777777777786,-6.726032194167697,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,22.976190476190478,7.194406163199618,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -Seasonal Naive,17.93650793650793,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.960317460317452,-18.492832604363784,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,13.095238095238093,-17.92857450946139,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.32872503840247,39.4440219344844,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.72043010752688,37.85799069972645,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,79.56989247311827,37.03410218998129,0.0,2.6060976963831815,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,78.18740399385563,35.77575884246357,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,66.66666666666666,34.106843589937796,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,66.3594470046083,29.050115763331195,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,66.05222734254991,29.325569671639194,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,64.82334869431644,28.75756667123792,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.24884792626728,33.645363857682895,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TS-ICL,61.82795698924731,32.64556461381777,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.367127496159746,28.470636641084333,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,60.82949308755761,27.784643347991,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +FlowState,58.98617511520739,27.18964779800085,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +citras-fm,58.90937019969278,29.54497604021703,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,58.90937019969278,27.746780910077852,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.30568356374808,27.011208854073608,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +CatBoost,50.153609831029186,27.450740665065144,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,48.003072196620586,26.138069870715697,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,47.46543778801844,25.062514275946356,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,47.08141321044547,25.633108331049936,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,45.54531490015361,25.059586999925887,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.09062980030721,23.050755938875334,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,39.36251920122888,17.07188261534265,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TFT,34.485407066052225,16.610547189801082,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.952380952380953,13.580115395669367,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,28.110599078341007,11.019039468741898,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.03379416282642,14.551541760519592,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +AutoETS,27.265745007680493,-6.726032194167697,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,22.465437788018434,7.194406163199618,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +Seasonal Naive,17.434715821812595,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Naive,14.631336405529957,-18.492832604363784,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.826420890937019,-17.92857450946139,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv index c4d48692a4584e99d9aef1d3b4cb1d673c8c3d8f..0d381c36a603f787767f5ef414fc9735793c45b3 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,88.80952380952381,48.16893911922631,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,86.03174603174604,47.03439239650638,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,82.3809523809524,44.82001047659605,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.47619047619048,38.77117816788853,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.3968253968254,38.67793124651509,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,69.99999999999999,38.89265863808164,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.96825396825398,43.34821010942925,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,68.25396825396825,38.74850022403288,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.65873015873017,42.46951390177763,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TS-ICL,67.53968253968253,41.92781577536778,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,66.11111111111111,38.982750213675665,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,64.60317460317458,37.356310446995735,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.17460317460317,37.59770290848886,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.095238095238095,36.65564931062223,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.66666666666668,36.59258743049962,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.44444444444444,35.87139576468958,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.095238095238095,35.17359783525491,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,52.69841269841269,35.40744128959241,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -TFT,39.44444444444444,25.24922731698379,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,36.190476190476176,27.96144140268967,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,35.19841269841269,21.00789975438786,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -PatchTST,32.261904761904745,21.575077599958682,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,30.436507936507923,22.083135288368496,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -CatBoost,29.365079365079357,23.128137800086222,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,27.142857142857135,21.737255944887302,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,26.706349206349206,15.177379671415093,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -AutoETS,25.396825396825395,-25.161340235868156,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.968253968253965,8.37504381956522,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.61111111111111,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.126984126984123,-33.03620398638194,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.746031746031744,-31.75596044124429,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,88.24884792626729,48.16893911922631,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.09984639016896,47.03439239650638,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,84.17818740399386,46.236384142342125,0.0,2.6060976963831815,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,81.18279569892472,44.82001047659605,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.20122887864822,38.77117816788853,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.81720430107526,38.67793124651509,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,68.66359447004608,38.89265863808164,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.74193548387096,43.34821010942925,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,66.89708141321044,38.74850022403288,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.321044546851,42.46951390177763,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TS-ICL,65.82181259600614,41.92781577536778,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.59293394777266,38.982750213675665,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.0568356374808,37.356310446995735,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +FlowState,61.75115207373272,36.65564931062223,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.67434715821813,37.59770290848886,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.99231950844854,36.59258743049962,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.84178187403994,35.87139576468958,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.68970814132104,35.17359783525491,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.38248847926267,35.40744128959241,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +TFT,38.47926267281106,25.24922731698379,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,35.09984639016897,27.96144140268967,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,34.21658986175115,21.00789975438786,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +PatchTST,31.374807987711208,21.575077599958682,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,29.60829493087558,22.083135288368496,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +CatBoost,28.494623655913976,23.128137800086222,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.26728110599078,21.737255944887302,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.92165898617511,15.177379671415093,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +AutoETS,24.65437788018433,-25.161340235868156,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.195084485407065,8.37504381956522,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.172043010752688,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.832565284178187,-33.03620398638194,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.528417818740399,-31.75596044124429,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 02edf902a82ba8e249ea768d28a34a28847f23a7..8c8a66f93f2932506eba34607e2b8bf77cb1df9f 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.68253968253968,40.520007918329185,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.07936507936509,39.97910055229871,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.12698412698414,36.44906387690696,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,72.38095238095238,32.1259584298953,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,70.63492063492063,37.24548801189469,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,69.76190476190476,31.798726646474805,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,68.80952380952381,31.547170325205375,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.05555555555556,36.035457638526424,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TS-ICL,63.73015873015871,34.85796644407271,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,62.619047619047606,30.37469958526301,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,60.158730158730165,29.777759860762497,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,60.07936507936509,29.478887305815647,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -citras-fm,59.76190476190477,30.883856972819935,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,56.666666666666664,28.91770981196896,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.77777777777778,28.783939901885137,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -LightGBM,50.23809523809525,28.026675823648763,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,50.07936507936509,27.596357187205513,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,48.33333333333333,26.4221714932126,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,47.14285714285714,26.172791737408396,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,44.12698412698413,25.500630381090716,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,43.095238095238095,24.560922790508542,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.92857142857142,18.65248010325733,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TFT,36.58730158730158,17.55129235888411,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,29.841269841269835,12.082418084936153,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.492063492063487,-2.7290136569638745,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,26.984126984126988,14.30320734363062,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -AutoTheta,26.269841269841272,12.238855032317774,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.087301587301585,11.608332472472217,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -Naive,20.436507936507937,-9.55304348683621,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.793650793650793,-11.985879428309133,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.238095238095232,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.25499231950843,40.520007918329185,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.26267281105991,39.97910055229871,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.72657450076805,38.797969380121444,0.0,2.6060976963831815,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.88786482334869,36.44906387690696,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,71.27496159754224,32.1259584298953,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,69.73886328725038,37.24548801189469,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,68.58678955453148,31.798726646474805,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,67.66513056835637,31.547170325205375,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.08909370199692,36.035457638526424,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TS-ICL,62.36559139784947,34.85796644407271,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,61.597542242703526,30.37469958526301,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,58.909370199692766,29.777759860762497,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,58.83256528417819,29.478887305815647,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +citras-fm,58.37173579109063,30.883856972819935,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.68356374807987,28.91770981196896,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.38248847926267,28.783939901885137,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +LightGBM,49.30875576036866,28.026675823648763,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,49.00153609831029,27.596357187205513,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,47.38863287250384,26.4221714932126,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,45.92933947772657,26.172791737408396,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,43.164362519201234,25.500630381090716,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.01228878648233,24.560922790508542,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,38.056835637480795,18.65248010325733,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TFT,35.944700460829495,17.55129235888411,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,29.262672811059904,12.082418084936153,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.03379416282642,-2.7290136569638745,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.42089093701997,14.30320734363062,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +AutoTheta,25.65284178187404,12.238855032317774,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.463901689708145,11.608332472472217,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +Naive,20.161290322580644,-9.55304348683621,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,15.668202764976957,-11.985879428309133,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.900153609831026,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 4a7eedff5987c67143e3bd7e9d466b668e4cb414..11ffd58cc38138659f1e727d260fe43ab3e5e776 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,85.31746031746032,50.945460383980226,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.33333333333334,50.25077498745439,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.22222222222223,47.404276614852094,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,74.20634920634922,47.84852116161721,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,73.73015873015873,43.86639294767475,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,71.5079365079365,43.37032468187005,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.26984126984125,43.447102168825424,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.43650793650794,46.57775946986645,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 -TiRex,67.38095238095238,42.05271803405567,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -TS-ICL,66.66666666666666,46.0030292862884,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,65.95238095238095,42.60571242539149,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.49206349206348,41.7421059135865,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.25396825396825,41.339265283988716,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 -FlowState,61.58730158730159,40.63664377134849,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,58.88888888888889,40.57999071515723,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.047619047619044,38.93740380330451,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.65079365079364,38.88016049043232,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,49.76190476190476,38.1771523471722,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.73015873015872,32.41302088995285,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 -TFT,38.17460317460316,27.0102097648108,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.32539682539681,23.762019047847925,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 -LightGBM,31.904761904761898,26.455638284100015,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.62698412698412,23.070595231883427,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,31.071428571428562,24.509565155499104,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 -CatBoost,30.158730158730148,26.015926682282032,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,26.23015873015873,20.163225583931876,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 -AutoETS,23.809523809523807,-22.25262533609125,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,22.53968253968253,10.95860098159448,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.055555555555554,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.999999999999996,-27.38359153519554,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.666666666666665,-29.07226056551304,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.86943164362519,50.945460383980226,0.0,6.073842177061847,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.41167434715823,50.25077498745439,0.0,1.2462164325,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,80.79877112135175,49.58262702801984,0.0,2.6060976963831815,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.88325652841782,47.404276614852094,0.0,0.8027037530504637,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,73.19508448540707,47.84852116161721,0.0,233.19124419048612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,72.50384024577572,43.86639294767475,0.0,2.9384434409375,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,70.27649769585254,43.37032468187005,0.0,6.392388657648901,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,69.96927803379415,43.447102168825424,0.0,1.415961499111262,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.23963133640554,46.57775946986645,0.0,94.5240759370583,0.0,2.380952380952381 +TiRex,66.12903225806451,42.05271803405567,0.0,0.6630511256654228,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +TS-ICL,65.2073732718894,46.0030292862884,0.0,2.808038174894963,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,64.28571428571429,42.60571242539149,0.0,1.137722548301099,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,62.28878648233487,41.7421059135865,0.0,0.5999408045710785,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.9815668202765,41.339265283988716,0.0,1.6456731042857142,0.21428571428571427,0.0 +FlowState,60.44546850998464,40.63664377134849,0.0,3.149809327083334,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,57.373271889400925,40.57999071515723,0.0,0.8126894325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,52.53456221198156,38.93740380330451,0.0,0.7454693648227612,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.45775729646698,38.88016049043232,0.0,21.010914669873948,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,48.54070660522273,38.1771523471722,0.0,0.5331319968382353,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.71121351766513,32.41302088995285,0.0,8.6058723475,0.023809523809523808,0.0 +TFT,37.40399385560676,27.0102097648108,840.0363191524633,2.784774613627451,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.44854070660522,23.762019047847925,0.0,238.7019323257143,0.0,2.380952380952381 +LightGBM,30.952380952380953,26.455638284100015,2.7357501468749996,0.4490329255357143,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.913978494623656,23.070595231883427,1025.4073311141667,1.489614424754902,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,30.29953917050691,24.509565155499104,1785.5292291445587,1.8718095706431082,0.0,4.761904761904762 +CatBoost,29.185867895545314,26.015926682282032,28.452690788739496,0.5293052348809524,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.460829493087555,20.163225583931876,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,2.380952380952381 +AutoETS,23.271889400921655,-22.25262533609125,0.0,4.6384753278664625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,21.966205837173575,10.95860098159448,0.0,3.78152038,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.711213517665133,0.0,0.0,0.470381465,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.754224270353303,-27.38359153519554,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.528417818740399,-29.07226056551304,0.0,0.4627528775,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv index 049b1eb4b5d964b2c6a340254360be2136b575a2..9b3faf02f92c91d04a233653e76f4def351d4196 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.026,-0.013,0.065 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.038,-0.001,0.074 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.667,0.523,0.81,0.057,0.016,0.098 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.081,0.035,0.127 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.146,0.092,0.204 @@ -13,11 +14,11 @@ TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.153,0.097,0.215 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.141,0.087,0.193 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.168,0.112,0.226 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.162,0.108,0.221 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.881,0.762,0.976,0.17,0.115,0.231 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.186,0.136,0.244 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.394,0.331,0.459 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.026,-0.069,0.013 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.013,-0.014,0.041 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.032,-0.006,0.071 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.643,0.5,0.762,0.057,0.017,0.096 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.124,0.076,0.181 @@ -30,11 +31,28 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.131,0.081,0.191 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.118,0.077,0.161 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.857,0.761,0.952,0.147,0.098,0.205 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.14,0.091,0.195 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.149,0.097,0.202 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.164,0.12,0.216 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.379,0.315,0.439 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.04,-0.079,0.001 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.013,-0.042,0.014 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.02,-0.011,0.053 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.044,0.002,0.086 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.113,0.06,0.175 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.109,0.055,0.169 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.051,0.007,0.095 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.116,0.063,0.181 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.128,0.071,0.193 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.065,0.028,0.101 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.12,0.07,0.183 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.106,0.068,0.146 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.135,0.08,0.198 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.129,0.077,0.188 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.929,0.857,1.0,0.153,0.107,0.208 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.37,0.301,0.438 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.333,0.19,0.477,-0.061,-0.109,-0.016 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.034,-0.076,0.006 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.02,-0.056,0.011 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.619,0.452,0.762,0.025,-0.027,0.077 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.095,0.046,0.152 @@ -47,11 +65,11 @@ TiRex-2,TiRex,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.102,0.058,0.155 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.088,0.051,0.128 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.118,0.065,0.177 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.111,0.066,0.163 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.12,0.075,0.173 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.136,0.09,0.188 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.358,0.293,0.426 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.088,-0.145,-0.037 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.357,0.238,0.5,-0.06,-0.107,-0.017 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.046,-0.094,-0.002 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.381,0.238,0.548,-0.026,-0.083,0.027 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.071,0.002,0.149 @@ -64,11 +82,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.079,0.013,0.155 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.065,0.009,0.126 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.095,0.029,0.171 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.088,0.019,0.164 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.097,0.029,0.173 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.114,0.053,0.186 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.341,0.274,0.409 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.172,-0.257,-0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.142,-0.221,-0.083 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.127,-0.212,-0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.105,-0.179,-0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.077,-0.175,-0.002 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -81,11 +99,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.008,-0.025,0.038 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.007,-0.054,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.026,-0.008,0.059 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.018,0.001,0.033 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.028,-0.008,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.046,0.017,0.076 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.291,0.227,0.358 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.167,-0.252,-0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.137,-0.213,-0.081 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.122,-0.203,-0.059 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.172,-0.042 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.073,-0.169,0.001 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.262,0.571,0.004,-0.006,0.015 @@ -98,11 +116,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.012,-0.016,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.003,-0.048,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.029,-0.006,0.064 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.022,0.006,0.037 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.032,-0.004,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.05,0.021,0.078 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.293,0.229,0.361 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.096,-0.167,-0.031 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.068,-0.127,-0.018 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.054,-0.105,-0.007 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.033,-0.082,0.015 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.69,0.065,-0.011,0.141 @@ -115,11 +133,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.072,0.008,0.143 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.058,0.004,0.112 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.548,0.381,0.69,0.089,0.019,0.16 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.404,0.69,0.082,0.009,0.153 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.091,0.022,0.162 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.108,0.042,0.176 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.336,0.257,0.408 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.176,-0.269,-0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.146,-0.231,-0.084 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.131,-0.221,-0.067 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.109,-0.188,-0.051 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.081,-0.183,-0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.004,-0.018,0.007 @@ -132,11 +150,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.004,-0.029,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.011,-0.062,0.03 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.022,-0.012,0.058 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.69,0.547,0.833,0.014,-0.003,0.028 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.024,-0.012,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.619,0.905,0.042,0.009,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.288,0.22,0.357 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.119,0.024,0.238,-0.193,-0.285,-0.12 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.162,-0.254,-0.093 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.147,-0.239,-0.076 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.124,-0.205,-0.06 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.096,-0.202,-0.014 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.018,-0.052,0.015 @@ -149,11 +167,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.512,0.369,0.667,-0.01,-0.04,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.025,-0.078,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.536,0.381,0.667,0.008,-0.021,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.001,-0.033,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.476,0.75,0.011,-0.018,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.679,0.559,0.81,0.029,0.005,0.055 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.278,0.215,0.344 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.112,-0.17,-0.058 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.084,-0.13,-0.043 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.07,-0.112,-0.028 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.049,-0.095,-0.002 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.022,-0.081,0.029 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.643,0.051,-0.006,0.117 @@ -166,11 +184,11 @@ TS-ICL,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.058,0.002,0.121 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.044,-0.004,0.099 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.075,0.017,0.143 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.068,0.013,0.13 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.548,0.81,0.077,0.021,0.136 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.094,0.038,0.154 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.326,0.249,0.393 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.181,-0.274,-0.108 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.151,-0.236,-0.088 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.136,-0.224,-0.075 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.114,-0.184,-0.062 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.086,-0.183,-0.014 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.008,-0.04,0.025 @@ -183,11 +201,11 @@ TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,citras-fm,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.015,-0.056,0.017 TiRex,FlowState,0.464,0.321,0.607,0.018,-0.012,0.05 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.01,-0.017,0.036 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.452,0.738,0.02,-0.005,0.045 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.038,0.013,0.063 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.285,0.219,0.35 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.163,-0.238,-0.095 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.134,-0.192,-0.083 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.119,-0.171,-0.073 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.097,-0.147,-0.054 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.069,-0.144,-0.009 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.007,-0.035,0.051 @@ -200,11 +218,11 @@ citras-fm,TiRex,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.015,-0.017,0.053 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.5,0.333,0.643,0.032,-0.014,0.083 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.025,-0.013,0.066 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.571,0.833,0.035,-0.005,0.073 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.053,0.015,0.092 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.295,0.225,0.364 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.202,-0.293,-0.126 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.239,-0.172,-0.258,-0.108 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.156,-0.247,-0.087 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.134,-0.215,-0.069 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.105,-0.207,-0.03 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.026,-0.063,0.008 @@ -217,11 +235,11 @@ FlowState,TiRex,0.536,0.393,0.679,-0.018,-0.052,0.012 FlowState,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.667,-0.033,-0.091,0.014 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.008,-0.052,0.029 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.488,0.357,0.631,0.002,-0.033,0.035 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.631,0.5,0.774,0.021,-0.007,0.048 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.857,1.0,0.272,0.22,0.327 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.193,-0.284,-0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.163,-0.242,-0.1 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.147,-0.231,-0.084 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.125,-0.195,-0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.097,-0.196,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.018,-0.034,-0.001 @@ -234,28 +252,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.01,-0.038,0.016 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.026,-0.071,0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.008,-0.03,0.049 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.01,-0.023,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.028,-0.002,0.061 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.277,0.209,0.352 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.119,0.024,0.238,-0.205,-0.301,-0.13 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.175,-0.253,-0.107 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.136,-0.209,-0.082 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.108,-0.209,-0.03 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.029,-0.065,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.033,-0.069,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.193,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.025,-0.059,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.393,0.25,0.524,-0.011,-0.04,0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.452,-0.084,-0.157,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.393,0.262,0.548,-0.02,-0.047,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.31,0.167,0.429,-0.036,-0.079,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.512,0.369,0.643,-0.002,-0.037,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.01,-0.046,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.019,-0.004,0.04 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.738,0.929,0.27,0.204,0.339 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.228,-0.323,-0.157 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.197,-0.276,-0.136 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.071,0.0,0.143,-0.181,-0.262,-0.119 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.158,-0.231,-0.099 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.129,-0.229,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.048,-0.082,-0.017 @@ -268,11 +269,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.04,-0.067,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.056,-0.101,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.369,0.226,0.5,-0.021,-0.05,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.029,-0.065,0.002 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.256,0.196,0.316 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.651,-0.848,-0.495 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.609,-0.784,-0.46 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.588,-0.78,-0.432 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.557,-0.741,-0.415 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.518,-0.692,-0.378 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.409,-0.557,-0.294 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.398,-0.539,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.419,-0.574,-0.291 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.071,0.0,0.143,-0.373,-0.486,-0.282 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.384,-0.544,-0.264 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.071,0.262,-0.37,-0.512,-0.256 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.345,-0.463,-0.244 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv index 19428dacc7fd1c0c7d39b496d9995ef9979ce55f..048f4cf6291d63ec797dcefeead0b059680a2bde 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.021,-0.017,0.06 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.036,-0.0,0.071 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.061,0.019,0.103 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.153,0.098,0.215 -TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.152,0.097,0.211 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.085,0.042,0.129 +TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.152,0.097,0.211 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.155,0.1,0.215 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.099,0.044,0.153 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.107,0.065,0.152 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.154,0.098,0.213 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.107,0.065,0.152 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.151,0.096,0.202 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.881,0.762,0.976,0.173,0.119,0.235 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.182,0.124,0.242 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.169,0.114,0.228 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.183,0.127,0.244 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.192,0.141,0.249 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.421,0.54 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.022,-0.064,0.017 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.015,-0.01,0.04 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.04,0.003,0.077 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.135,0.09,0.185 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.133,0.087,0.185 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.065,0.025,0.103 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.133,0.087,0.185 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.136,0.089,0.192 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.079,0.036,0.124 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.088,0.055,0.121 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.135,0.086,0.189 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.088,0.055,0.121 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.132,0.091,0.178 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.154,0.102,0.213 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.857,0.761,0.952,0.164,0.116,0.22 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.151,0.102,0.204 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.165,0.115,0.218 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.174,0.129,0.225 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.41,0.527 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.037,-0.077,0.0 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.015,-0.041,0.01 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.548,0.404,0.69,0.026,-0.005,0.059 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.122,0.073,0.182 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.051,0.009,0.091 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.12,0.071,0.179 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.123,0.074,0.184 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.065,0.022,0.11 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.122,0.072,0.184 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.074,0.04,0.105 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.119,0.079,0.159 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.142,0.089,0.205 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.151,0.099,0.211 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.138,0.092,0.196 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.162,0.116,0.215 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.403,0.518 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.065,-0.115,-0.019 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.042,-0.084,-0.003 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.452,0.31,0.596,-0.026,-0.063,0.005 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.099,0.049,0.154 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.097,0.049,0.153 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.026,-0.028,0.077 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.097,0.049,0.153 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.1,0.055,0.154 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.041,-0.008,0.089 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.595,0.858,0.05,0.008,0.089 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.099,0.052,0.156 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.595,0.858,0.05,0.008,0.089 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.096,0.059,0.133 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.119,0.067,0.178 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.129,0.079,0.185 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.116,0.07,0.169 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.13,0.084,0.179 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.14,0.097,0.189 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.388,0.508 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.181,-0.273,-0.109 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.156,-0.227,-0.099 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.139,-0.223,-0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.11,-0.182,-0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.002,-0.017,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.081,-0.176,-0.007 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.002,-0.017,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.002,-0.03,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.064,-0.157,0.014 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.054,-0.124,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.0,-0.019,0.018 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.054,-0.124,0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.003,-0.051,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.023,-0.02,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.033,-0.009,0.073 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.019,-0.004,0.04 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.034,-0.005,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.045,0.008,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.388,0.32,0.454 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.179,-0.267,-0.108 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.154,-0.227,-0.095 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.107,-0.18,-0.052 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.002,-0.012,0.016 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.079,-0.173,-0.007 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.004,-0.028,0.032 -Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.062,-0.153,0.017 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.548,0.381,0.69,-0.052,-0.127,0.004 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.002,-0.008,0.013 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.001,-0.049,0.037 -Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.025,-0.012,0.059 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.035,-0.001,0.071 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.021,0.002,0.04 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.036,-0.001,0.069 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.047,0.014,0.079 -Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.389,0.324,0.454 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.093,-0.148,-0.044 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.07,-0.115,-0.025 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.054,-0.1,-0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.027,-0.084,0.027 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.075,0.007,0.149 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.073,0.007,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.073,0.007,0.148 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.076,0.01,0.151 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.015,-0.027,0.062 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.024,-0.024,0.073 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.075,0.006,0.154 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.024,-0.024,0.073 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.072,0.014,0.133 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.096,0.026,0.172 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.106,0.042,0.182 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.092,0.022,0.166 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.107,0.04,0.18 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.117,0.055,0.187 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.368,0.495 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.179,-0.267,-0.108 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.154,-0.227,-0.095 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.137,-0.219,-0.076 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.107,-0.18,-0.052 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.002,-0.012,0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.079,-0.173,-0.007 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.004,-0.028,0.032 +Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.062,-0.153,0.017 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.002,-0.008,0.013 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.548,0.381,0.69,-0.052,-0.127,0.004 +Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.001,-0.049,0.037 +Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.025,-0.012,0.059 +Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.035,-0.001,0.071 +Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.021,0.002,0.04 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.047,0.014,0.079 +Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.389,0.324,0.454 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.183,-0.273,-0.111 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.158,-0.238,-0.097 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.141,-0.225,-0.08 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.111,-0.181,-0.058 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.002,-0.031,0.029 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.004,-0.033,0.027 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.082,-0.178,-0.01 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.004,-0.033,0.027 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.066,-0.16,0.007 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.056,-0.128,0.002 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.001,-0.027,0.024 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.056,-0.128,0.002 TiRex,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,-0.005,-0.044,0.026 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.655,0.512,0.798,0.021,-0.003,0.045 TiRex,FlowState,0.607,0.464,0.75,0.032,0.006,0.06 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.017,-0.008,0.04 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.033,0.01,0.057 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.774,0.655,0.893,0.044,0.023,0.066 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.325,0.448 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.11,-0.18,-0.046 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.086,-0.142,-0.037 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.07,-0.123,-0.023 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.043,-0.098,0.008 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.06,-0.014,0.136 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.059,-0.017,0.133 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.016,-0.067,0.026 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.059,-0.017,0.133 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.062,-0.007,0.138 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.009,-0.046,0.058 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.061,-0.016,0.14 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.009,-0.046,0.058 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.057,-0.001,0.114 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.082,0.008,0.157 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.092,0.022,0.164 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.078,0.005,0.152 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.093,0.022,0.163 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.103,0.037,0.17 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.425,0.354,0.49 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.12,-0.179,-0.069 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.096,-0.138,-0.058 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.262,0.142,0.405,-0.052,-0.097,-0.008 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.052,-0.004,0.111 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.619,0.05,-0.005,0.113 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.025,-0.078,0.024 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.053,-0.002,0.114 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.009,-0.062,0.044 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.052,-0.003,0.116 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.048,0.001,0.101 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.073,0.017,0.137 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.083,0.026,0.15 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.069,0.018,0.13 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.084,0.031,0.142 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.094,0.041,0.151 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.351,0.482 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.182,-0.271,-0.108 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.156,-0.233,-0.095 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.139,-0.225,-0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.11,-0.185,-0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.0,-0.018,0.019 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.002,-0.013,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.081,-0.181,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.002,-0.013,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.001,-0.025,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.065,-0.163,0.016 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.055,-0.131,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.055,-0.131,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.524,0.357,0.667,-0.004,-0.052,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.022,-0.011,0.055 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.033,-0.001,0.072 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.881,0.018,0.003,0.033 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.034,0.0,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.045,0.014,0.076 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.321,0.452 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.12,-0.179,-0.069 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.096,-0.138,-0.058 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.08,-0.118,-0.041 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.262,0.142,0.405,-0.052,-0.097,-0.008 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.052,-0.004,0.111 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.025,-0.078,0.024 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.619,0.05,-0.005,0.113 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.053,-0.002,0.114 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.009,-0.062,0.044 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.052,-0.003,0.116 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.643,0.048,0.001,0.101 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.073,0.017,0.137 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.083,0.026,0.15 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.069,0.018,0.13 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.094,0.041,0.151 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.351,0.482 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.177,-0.253,-0.107 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.152,-0.217,-0.1 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.135,-0.19,-0.086 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.106,-0.154,-0.063 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.003,-0.037,0.048 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.001,-0.038,0.047 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.077,-0.154,-0.014 +citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.001,-0.038,0.047 citras-fm,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,0.005,-0.027,0.042 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.061,-0.128,0.001 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.051,-0.112,-0.001 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.643,0.004,-0.035,0.049 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.5,0.357,0.643,-0.051,-0.112,-0.001 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.357,0.667,0.026,-0.019,0.073 citras-fm,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.037,-0.01,0.088 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.022,-0.01,0.061 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.571,0.81,0.038,-0.0,0.074 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.049,0.011,0.086 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.39,0.323,0.454 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.119,0.024,0.238,-0.209,-0.306,-0.135 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.183,-0.271,-0.114 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.165,-0.257,-0.098 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.135,-0.217,-0.072 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.023,-0.064,0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.025,-0.063,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.106,-0.207,-0.027 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.025,-0.063,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.345,0.202,0.488,-0.022,-0.047,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.089,-0.186,-0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.079,-0.158,-0.018 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.023,-0.058,0.011 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.079,-0.158,-0.018 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.476,0.333,0.643,-0.027,-0.078,0.018 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.488,0.345,0.619,0.011,-0.017,0.043 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.004,-0.039,0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.679,0.548,0.81,0.012,-0.016,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.655,0.524,0.774,0.023,0.002,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.309,0.436 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.222,-0.319,-0.141 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.239,-0.196,-0.281,-0.132 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.178,-0.267,-0.11 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.148,-0.228,-0.086 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.035,-0.079,0.009 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.037,-0.076,0.001 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.118,-0.222,-0.043 +FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.037,-0.076,0.001 FlowState,TiRex,0.393,0.25,0.536,-0.033,-0.064,-0.006 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.101,-0.196,-0.023 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.262,0.571,-0.091,-0.176,-0.027 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.034,-0.078,0.001 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.262,0.571,-0.091,-0.176,-0.027 FlowState,citras-fm,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.038,-0.096,0.01 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.512,0.381,0.655,-0.011,-0.045,0.017 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.015,-0.058,0.022 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.536,0.404,0.667,0.001,-0.037,0.037 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.75,0.012,-0.017,0.041 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.311,0.425 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.204,-0.295,-0.128 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.178,-0.257,-0.113 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.161,-0.244,-0.101 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.131,-0.203,-0.076 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.019,-0.042,0.004 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.021,-0.041,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.102,-0.199,-0.023 +Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.021,-0.041,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.042,0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.085,-0.18,-0.005 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.075,-0.149,-0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.119,0.405,-0.019,-0.034,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.075,-0.149,-0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.023,-0.065,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.004,-0.032,0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.015,-0.023,0.055 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.016,-0.017,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.027,-0.005,0.059 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.376,0.309,0.443 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.223,-0.323,-0.145 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.197,-0.278,-0.13 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.149,-0.218,-0.092 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.036,-0.073,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.038,-0.074,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.119,-0.22,-0.041 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.034,-0.061,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.102,-0.195,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.092,-0.166,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.069,-0.0 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.31,0.19,0.429,-0.039,-0.08,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.321,0.19,0.452,-0.012,-0.04,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.464,0.333,0.596,-0.001,-0.038,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.016,-0.05,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.512,0.381,0.643,0.011,-0.008,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.366,0.298,0.426 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.237,-0.331,-0.165 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.211,-0.291,-0.148 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.193,-0.273,-0.131 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.162,-0.233,-0.107 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.047,-0.086,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.049,-0.086,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.132,-0.23,-0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.049,-0.086,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.226,0.107,0.345,-0.046,-0.07,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.115,-0.205,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.104,-0.178,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.104,-0.178,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.051,-0.095,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.345,0.226,0.476,-0.024,-0.048,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.393,0.25,0.524,-0.012,-0.043,0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.028,-0.063,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.488,0.357,0.619,-0.011,-0.032,0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.359,0.294,0.417 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.929,-1.176,-0.728 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.112,-0.694 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.073,-0.674 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.812,-1.033,-0.634 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.633,-0.83,-0.47 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.636,-0.831,-0.479 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.765,-0.979,-0.583 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.636,-0.831,-0.479 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.81,-0.482 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.738,-0.962,-0.549 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.722,-0.929,-0.54 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.826,-0.474 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.722,-0.929,-0.54 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.639,-0.83,-0.478 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.775,-0.448 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.74,-0.451 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.603,-0.795,-0.446 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.577,-0.744,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.559,-0.715,-0.417 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 6da310413df82483aee4b9e02b475db1dda35d97..c6fa6cdbbecbf5b65fac44ded93561d8f288f053 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,290 +1,290 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.009,-0.043,0.058 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.028,-0.033,0.082 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.064,0.014,0.114 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.124,0.064,0.188 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.052,0.004,0.097 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.128,0.071,0.192 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.07,0.005,0.135 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.131,0.073,0.196 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.738,0.618,0.857,0.087,0.028,0.139 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.833,0.69,0.952,0.146,0.082,0.214 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.738,0.618,0.857,0.087,0.028,0.139 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.139,0.081,0.196 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.157,0.098,0.224 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.153,0.094,0.215 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.163,0.096,0.228 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.165,0.092,0.233 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.194,0.137,0.254 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.405,0.341,0.466 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.009,-0.062,0.042 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.019,-0.012,0.053 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.571,0.405,0.714,0.056,0.015,0.097 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.116,0.063,0.179 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.428,0.714,0.044,-0.003,0.086 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.12,0.071,0.18 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.062,0.012,0.12 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.123,0.071,0.185 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.079,0.037,0.119 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.81,0.667,0.929,0.138,0.088,0.197 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.079,0.037,0.119 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.132,0.091,0.177 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.149,0.09,0.214 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.145,0.096,0.205 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.156,0.095,0.212 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.157,0.103,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.187,0.134,0.243 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.4,0.33,0.461 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.029,-0.09,0.032 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.02,-0.056,0.012 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.037,-0.016,0.086 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.098,0.036,0.166 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.025,-0.036,0.079 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.667,0.548,0.81,0.103,0.043,0.168 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.043,-0.02,0.104 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.106,0.042,0.176 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.121,0.066,0.185 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.06,0.019,0.099 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.115,0.077,0.155 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.132,0.071,0.203 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.128,0.071,0.192 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.139,0.076,0.208 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.171,0.116,0.229 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.857,1.0,0.388,0.311,0.456 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.068,-0.128,-0.014 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.059,-0.107,-0.016 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.038,-0.094,0.015 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.064,0.005,0.128 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.013,-0.069,0.041 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.068,0.011,0.132 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.006,-0.056,0.066 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.072,0.014,0.137 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.595,0.834,0.024,-0.03,0.076 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.087,0.027,0.153 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.595,0.834,0.024,-0.03,0.076 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.081,0.031,0.128 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.099,0.037,0.168 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.095,0.044,0.152 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.106,0.039,0.175 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.108,0.042,0.174 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.139,0.079,0.205 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.364,0.299,0.431 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.141,-0.232,-0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.131,-0.218,-0.067 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.109,-0.199,-0.037 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.068,-0.147,-0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.082,-0.187,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.428,0.714,0.005,-0.008,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.381,0.69,-0.061,-0.156,0.025 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.008,-0.004,0.021 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.042,-0.133,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.025,-0.014,0.062 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.042,-0.133,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.018,-0.033,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.524,0.786,0.038,-0.013,0.081 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.033,0.012,0.051 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.045,-0.012,0.099 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.047,-0.007,0.094 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.081,0.032,0.13 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.321,0.244,0.391 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.055,-0.107,-0.004 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.429,0.286,0.572,-0.046,-0.094,0.003 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.025,-0.085,0.035 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.013,-0.043,0.064 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.075,-0.0,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.571,0.452,0.715,0.08,0.008,0.16 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.019,-0.027,0.065 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.083,0.006,0.164 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.037,-0.009,0.086 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.099,0.029,0.179 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.037,-0.009,0.086 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.092,0.033,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.11,0.041,0.186 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.106,0.037,0.181 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.117,0.048,0.189 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.119,0.044,0.195 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.15,0.086,0.224 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.372,0.31,0.433 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.147,-0.238,-0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.136,-0.219,-0.076 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.333,0.19,0.452,-0.114,-0.202,-0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.073,-0.152,-0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.572,-0.005,-0.017,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.285,0.548,-0.087,-0.191,-0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.066,-0.158,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.004,-0.011,0.017 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.714,-0.047,-0.133,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.02,-0.016,0.053 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.714,-0.047,-0.133,0.022 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.013,-0.033,0.054 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.033,-0.017,0.075 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.786,0.643,0.905,0.029,0.006,0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.041,-0.016,0.091 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.042,-0.008,0.088 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.881,0.786,0.976,0.076,0.031,0.122 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.318,0.238,0.386 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.075,-0.155,-0.005 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.066,-0.136,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.045,-0.116,0.019 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.007,-0.071,0.053 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.619,0.058,-0.025,0.135 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.019,-0.07,0.026 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.062,-0.018,0.137 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.066,-0.017,0.145 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.018,-0.039,0.073 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.081,0.001,0.158 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.018,-0.039,0.073 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.075,0.009,0.137 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.093,0.015,0.169 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.089,0.014,0.162 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.1,0.018,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.81,0.102,0.02,0.18 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.762,0.642,0.881,0.134,0.061,0.204 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.36,0.288,0.427 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.151,-0.245,-0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.14,-0.227,-0.076 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.118,-0.213,-0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.429,0.262,0.571,-0.077,-0.159,-0.015 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.009,-0.022,0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.091,-0.197,-0.006 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.004,-0.017,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.07,-0.169,0.017 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.051,-0.143,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.017,-0.021,0.051 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.571,0.429,0.714,-0.051,-0.143,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.01,-0.042,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.029,-0.019,0.073 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.881,0.025,0.008,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.037,-0.022,0.096 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.738,0.619,0.858,0.039,-0.013,0.086 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.073,0.025,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.315,0.236,0.387 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.382,-0.095,-0.162,-0.029 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.085,-0.135,-0.039 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.166,0.405,-0.025,-0.082,0.029 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.04,-0.028,0.117 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.038,-0.094,0.009 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.286,0.548,0.045,-0.022,0.118 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.078,0.038 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.048,-0.022,0.125 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.064,-0.001,0.132 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.057,0.011,0.111 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.076,0.008,0.15 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.072,0.01,0.14 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.084,0.01,0.157 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.085,0.024,0.148 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.118,0.054,0.183 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.349,0.275,0.416 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.048,0.31,-0.171,-0.273,-0.09 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.333,-0.16,-0.246,-0.096 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.138,-0.228,-0.07 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.405,0.238,0.548,-0.096,-0.181,-0.028 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.026,-0.066,0.014 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.109,-0.218,-0.029 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.021,-0.056,0.015 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.088,-0.187,-0.001 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.017,-0.054,0.021 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.069,-0.153,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.069,-0.153,0.001 TiRex,citras-fm,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.007,-0.053,0.03 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.56,0.405,0.702,0.013,-0.017,0.038 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.009,-0.028,0.043 TiRex,FlowState,0.536,0.393,0.679,0.02,-0.022,0.067 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.464,0.75,0.022,-0.002,0.047 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.726,0.595,0.857,0.057,0.024,0.094 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.304,0.229,0.373 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.382,-0.095,-0.162,-0.029 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.085,-0.135,-0.039 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.064,-0.11,-0.02 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.166,0.405,-0.025,-0.082,0.029 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.04,-0.028,0.117 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.038,-0.094,0.009 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.286,0.548,0.045,-0.022,0.118 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.078,0.038 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.048,-0.022,0.125 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.064,-0.001,0.132 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.057,0.011,0.111 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.076,0.008,0.15 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.357,0.667,0.072,0.01,0.14 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.084,0.01,0.157 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.118,0.054,0.183 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.349,0.275,0.416 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.162,-0.244,-0.088 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.152,-0.215,-0.1 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.129,-0.183,-0.083 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.088,-0.147,-0.032 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.018,-0.067,0.032 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.101,-0.188,-0.034 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.013,-0.057,0.032 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.081,-0.159,-0.009 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.01,-0.055,0.04 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.061,-0.125,-0.011 citras-fm,TiRex,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.007,-0.031,0.051 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.061,-0.125,-0.011 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.333,0.643,0.02,-0.028,0.071 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.016,-0.025,0.057 citras-fm,FlowState,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.028,-0.028,0.083 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.029,-0.011,0.071 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.064,0.024,0.105 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.309,0.233,0.376 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.186,-0.288,-0.108 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.175,-0.272,-0.099 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.152,-0.255,-0.076 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.11,-0.201,-0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.333,0.214,0.476,-0.039,-0.089,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.124,-0.229,-0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.034,-0.082,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.103,-0.203,-0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.405,0.238,0.548,-0.03,-0.078,0.018 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.083,-0.176,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.44,0.298,0.595,-0.013,-0.04,0.017 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.083,-0.176,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.5,0.357,0.667,-0.02,-0.077,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.004,-0.054,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.512,0.369,0.643,0.008,-0.034,0.054 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.01,-0.029,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.655,0.524,0.774,0.045,0.012,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.295,0.23,0.36 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.181,-0.274,-0.103 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.17,-0.257,-0.106 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.147,-0.238,-0.077 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.105,-0.18,-0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.035,-0.054,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.119,-0.221,-0.038 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.214,0.095,0.357,-0.03,-0.051,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.098,-0.193,-0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.119,0.405,-0.026,-0.044,-0.008 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.078,-0.163,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.009,-0.045,0.028 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.5,0.333,0.643,-0.078,-0.163,-0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.016,-0.061,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.004,-0.04,0.051 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.548,0.405,0.691,0.012,-0.043,0.076 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.014,-0.034,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.049,0.006,0.099 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.298,0.223,0.368 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.195,-0.296,-0.106 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.184,-0.27,-0.105 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.161,-0.262,-0.083 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.119,-0.212,-0.04 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.047,-0.11,0.012 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.133,-0.234,-0.05 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.042,-0.101,0.016 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.111,-0.212,-0.018 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.038,-0.106,0.022 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.091,-0.186,-0.01 FlowState,TiRex,0.464,0.321,0.607,-0.021,-0.072,0.021 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.091,-0.186,-0.01 FlowState,citras-fm,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.028,-0.091,0.027 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.488,0.357,0.631,-0.008,-0.058,0.033 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.452,0.309,0.595,-0.012,-0.082,0.042 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.464,0.333,0.595,0.002,-0.044,0.043 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.037,-0.004,0.079 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.929,0.857,1.0,0.289,0.229,0.346 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.197,-0.303,-0.101 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.187,-0.27,-0.115 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.121,-0.211,-0.044 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.049,-0.104,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.135,-0.243,-0.047 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.044,-0.096,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.113,-0.22,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.262,0.142,0.381,-0.04,-0.094,0.013 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.093,-0.174,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.393,0.25,0.536,-0.023,-0.049,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.03,-0.076,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.01,-0.047,0.028 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.014,-0.066,0.033 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.536,0.405,0.667,-0.002,-0.045,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.429,0.69,0.035,0.0,0.077 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.288,0.211,0.358 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.241,-0.341,-0.158 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.23,-0.322,-0.155 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.206,-0.296,-0.132 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.162,-0.258,-0.086 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.088,-0.15,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.176,-0.288,-0.094 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.119,0.024,0.214,-0.082,-0.139,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.238,0.119,0.358,-0.154,-0.256,-0.065 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.079,-0.139,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.133,-0.224,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.274,0.143,0.405,-0.06,-0.103,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.133,-0.224,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.068,-0.118,-0.024 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.345,0.226,0.476,-0.047,-0.084,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.051,-0.11,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.039,-0.086,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.31,0.571,-0.037,-0.084,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.881,0.762,0.976,0.262,0.194,0.326 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.681,-0.874,-0.517 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.666,-0.856,-0.493 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.048,0.0,0.143,-0.634,-0.839,-0.451 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.574,-0.757,-0.426 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.473,-0.641,-0.322 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.594,-0.765,-0.45 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.466,-0.629,-0.313 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.036,0.0,0.095,-0.563,-0.746,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.461,-0.633,-0.309 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.535,-0.712,-0.379 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.436,-0.594,-0.296 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.535,-0.712,-0.379 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.447,-0.603,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.418,-0.563,-0.298 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.424,-0.582,-0.286 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.071,0.0,0.143,-0.407,-0.53,-0.297 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.404,-0.558,-0.268 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.119,0.024,0.238,-0.355,-0.484,-0.241 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv index 1c6d43c34656a63795868ebc59b3a16217ccb3d8..cc825ce675021783b14f811345c2dad7d2f8531a 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_covariate_informed/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.014,-0.035,0.061 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.027,-0.028,0.078 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.69,0.524,0.833,0.067,0.014,0.116 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.059,0.01,0.103 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.126,0.064,0.192 @@ -13,11 +14,11 @@ TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.145,0.089,0.202 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.164,0.106,0.228 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.158,0.098,0.221 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.762,0.643,0.881,0.174,0.105,0.239 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.174,0.105,0.242 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.905,0.81,0.976,0.197,0.139,0.259 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.509,0.445,0.569 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.014,-0.065,0.034 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.013,-0.013,0.039 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.548,0.381,0.69,0.054,0.009,0.096 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.046,-0.004,0.09 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.114,0.062,0.174 @@ -30,11 +31,28 @@ Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.81,0.69,0.905,0.133,0.093,0.177 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.152,0.098,0.213 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.146,0.096,0.204 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.857,0.762,0.952,0.162,0.105,0.22 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.714,0.929,0.163,0.111,0.217 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.185,0.135,0.239 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.503,0.438,0.558 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.028,-0.085,0.027 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.013,-0.041,0.013 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.041,-0.006,0.087 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.033,-0.022,0.085 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.102,0.047,0.164 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.11,0.055,0.172 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.056,-0.001,0.11 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.108,0.053,0.175 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.13,0.079,0.191 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.786,0.667,0.905,0.066,0.026,0.105 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.857,0.738,0.952,0.122,0.085,0.163 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.141,0.081,0.206 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.135,0.082,0.194 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.738,0.619,0.857,0.151,0.09,0.216 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.929,0.833,1.0,0.174,0.122,0.23 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.496,0.433,0.552 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.31,0.167,0.476,-0.072,-0.131,-0.015 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.619,-0.057,-0.106,-0.01 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.043,-0.095,0.006 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.548,0.405,0.69,-0.009,-0.065,0.047 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.063,0.006,0.128 @@ -47,11 +65,11 @@ TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.084,0.037,0.129 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.103,0.044,0.169 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.097,0.044,0.158 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.738,0.595,0.857,0.114,0.051,0.183 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.115,0.052,0.178 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.139,0.081,0.201 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.474,0.415,0.532 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.063,-0.115,-0.01 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.048,-0.099,0.004 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.034,-0.093,0.021 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.452,0.31,0.595,0.008,-0.05,0.061 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.619,0.476,0.786,0.071,-0.006,0.153 @@ -64,11 +82,11 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.091,0.03,0.158 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.714,0.111,0.042,0.188 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.105,0.033,0.182 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.714,0.595,0.857,0.121,0.052,0.192 -TabPFN-TS-3,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.122,0.048,0.198 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.146,0.081,0.218 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.478,0.417,0.537 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.144,-0.237,-0.068 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.128,-0.21,-0.066 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.113,-0.196,-0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.067,-0.146,-0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.214,0.524,-0.076,-0.181,0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -81,11 +99,11 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.022,-0.029,0.065 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.571,0.834,0.043,-0.008,0.088 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.81,0.69,0.905,0.036,0.017,0.056 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.643,0.499,0.786,0.054,-0.005,0.106 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.055,0.005,0.098 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.081,0.035,0.122 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.439,0.364,0.506 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.154,-0.25,-0.08 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.138,-0.22,-0.077 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.123,-0.207,-0.058 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.077,-0.156,-0.011 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.285,0.548,-0.086,-0.189,-0.004 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.009,-0.024,0.006 @@ -98,11 +116,11 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.013,-0.035,0.055 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.035,-0.019,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.028,0.004,0.05 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.643,0.476,0.762,0.046,-0.016,0.097 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.047,-0.004,0.09 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.81,0.69,0.929,0.073,0.022,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.434,0.355,0.502 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.31,0.19,0.452,-0.089,-0.17,-0.019 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.074,-0.141,-0.019 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.06,-0.124,0.001 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.524,0.381,0.667,-0.016,-0.082,0.041 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.024,-0.078,0.025 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.476,0.333,0.619,0.048,-0.036,0.129 @@ -115,11 +133,11 @@ TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.069,0.006,0.131 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.089,0.012,0.165 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.083,0.005,0.162 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.1,0.02,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.101,0.018,0.18 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.125,0.053,0.194 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.964,0.905,1.0,0.466,0.393,0.527 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.153,-0.247,-0.08 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.262,0.142,0.405,-0.137,-0.221,-0.073 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.122,-0.213,-0.056 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.075,-0.155,-0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.084,-0.195,-0.002 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.595,-0.007,-0.026,0.008 @@ -132,11 +150,11 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.015,-0.035,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.429,0.738,0.036,-0.013,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.762,0.619,0.881,0.029,0.015,0.044 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.667,0.524,0.81,0.047,-0.015,0.104 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.571,0.833,0.048,-0.001,0.09 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.714,0.952,0.074,0.027,0.119 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.434,0.358,0.502 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.181,-0.281,-0.104 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.165,-0.248,-0.103 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.149,-0.237,-0.086 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.102,-0.182,-0.039 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.285,0.548,-0.111,-0.213,-0.033 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.032,-0.071,0.005 @@ -149,11 +167,11 @@ TiRex,citras-fm,0.524,0.357,0.667,-0.01,-0.05,0.024 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.631,0.476,0.774,0.012,-0.017,0.037 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.005,-0.026,0.035 TiRex,FlowState,0.56,0.405,0.714,0.024,-0.018,0.07 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.702,0.571,0.845,0.025,-0.0,0.049 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.798,0.679,0.905,0.051,0.019,0.086 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.421,0.35,0.487 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.262,0.143,0.382,-0.101,-0.167,-0.041 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.085,-0.135,-0.038 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.214,0.095,0.333,-0.071,-0.117,-0.026 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.027,-0.085,0.028 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.093,0.014 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.571,0.038,-0.025,0.107 @@ -166,11 +184,11 @@ TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.059,0.009,0.111 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.08,0.016,0.146 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.073,0.014,0.141 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.595,0.452,0.762,0.09,0.023,0.162 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.619,0.476,0.762,0.091,0.032,0.152 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.116,0.058,0.175 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.46,0.395,0.519 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.17,-0.253,-0.097 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.19,0.095,0.31,-0.154,-0.215,-0.102 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.138,-0.194,-0.093 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.091,-0.148,-0.039 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.101,-0.188,-0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.022,-0.07,0.028 @@ -183,11 +201,11 @@ citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.548,0.405,0.69,0.022,-0.02,0.069 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.548,0.405,0.714,0.015,-0.025,0.058 citras-fm,FlowState,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.033,-0.016,0.087 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.034,-0.0,0.071 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.643,0.5,0.786,0.06,0.023,0.1 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.426,0.357,0.489 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.196,-0.296,-0.119 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.179,-0.271,-0.109 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.238,0.119,0.381,-0.164,-0.259,-0.088 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.115,-0.204,-0.047 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.429,0.286,0.571,-0.125,-0.231,-0.044 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.166,0.429,-0.045,-0.096,0.008 @@ -200,11 +218,11 @@ TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.452,0.31,0.595,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.476,0.333,0.619,-0.007,-0.055,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.488,0.357,0.619,0.012,-0.03,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.44,0.726,0.013,-0.025,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.655,0.524,0.774,0.039,0.011,0.067 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.346,0.477 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.188,-0.283,-0.109 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.171,-0.257,-0.106 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.156,-0.24,-0.089 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.108,-0.188,-0.046 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.117,-0.222,-0.034 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.19,0.095,0.31,-0.038,-0.059,-0.017 @@ -217,11 +235,11 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.452,0.286,0.595,-0.015,-0.061,0.025 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.524,0.381,0.667,0.007,-0.039,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.595,0.429,0.738,0.019,-0.038,0.078 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.595,0.452,0.738,0.02,-0.025,0.059 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.69,0.548,0.833,0.046,0.004,0.092 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.417,0.343,0.485 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.238,0.119,0.357,-0.21,-0.314,-0.118 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.143,0.048,0.238,-0.193,-0.281,-0.118 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.262,0.143,0.381,-0.177,-0.276,-0.099 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.262,0.143,0.405,-0.129,-0.224,-0.053 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.405,-0.138,-0.238,-0.055 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.357,0.214,0.501,-0.058,-0.118,0.004 @@ -234,28 +252,11 @@ FlowState,citras-fm,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.034,-0.095,0.016 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.512,0.381,0.643,-0.012,-0.06,0.029 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.571,-0.019,-0.084,0.036 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.512,0.381,0.643,0.001,-0.044,0.042 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.607,0.476,0.738,0.028,-0.015,0.071 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.929,1.0,0.406,0.347,0.463 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.048,0.262,-0.211,-0.318,-0.117 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.167,0.071,0.286,-0.194,-0.277,-0.125 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.19,0.071,0.31,-0.13,-0.217,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.139,-0.247,-0.051 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.059,-0.108,-0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.049,-0.098,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.19,0.476,-0.112,-0.22,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.167,0.429,-0.051,-0.099,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.298,0.155,0.429,-0.025,-0.051,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.381,0.238,0.524,-0.1,-0.179,-0.033 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.035,-0.077,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.274,0.56,-0.013,-0.049,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.405,0.262,0.548,-0.02,-0.063,0.024 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.488,0.357,0.619,-0.001,-0.044,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.429,0.691,0.027,-0.006,0.066 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.952,0.881,1.0,0.406,0.337,0.469 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.095,0.024,0.19,-0.245,-0.349,-0.161 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.227,-0.314,-0.156 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.071,0.0,0.167,-0.211,-0.298,-0.138 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.161,-0.251,-0.088 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.171,-0.278,-0.088 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.167,0.048,0.286,-0.088,-0.14,-0.036 @@ -268,11 +269,11 @@ Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.357,0.214,0.5,-0.064,-0.111,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.345,0.226,0.476,-0.041,-0.072,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.31,0.167,0.452,-0.048,-0.101,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.393,0.262,0.524,-0.029,-0.077,0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.309,0.571,-0.028,-0.071,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.976,0.905,1.0,0.389,0.321,0.451 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-1.039,-1.32,-0.801 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-1.01,-1.263,-0.779 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.983,-1.234,-0.763 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.901,-1.139,-0.71 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.917,-1.16,-0.715 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.781,-1.023,-0.572 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.742,-0.956,-0.556 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.705,-0.911,-0.529 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.717,-0.94,-0.522 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.024,0.0,0.071,-0.685,-0.863,-0.53 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.048,0.0,0.119,-0.683,-0.882,-0.507 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.024,0.0,0.095,-0.638,-0.823,-0.473 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 8bd2736c55cb3c444f79f3face410e320872744d..e6192da704416d85af4e926dd0817367d71ece32 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,84.0,42.98441909536225,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,82.28571428571432,42.37962809390597,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,81.80952380952381,42.20523827207805,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,80.38095238095238,42.006798813920796,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,76.76190476190476,41.19031821593736,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,75.5238095238095,40.805224762539694,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.0952380952381,39.81314672865939,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Chronos-2,69.9047619047619,40.47703024635902,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,69.04761904761904,39.82701860526772,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.19047619047616,38.70507938155933,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.571428571428555,38.48001468455288,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -citras-fm,60.952380952380935,38.07284039930927,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,58.95238095238094,37.939637725184305,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,55.61904761904761,35.39038084875803,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.5238095238095,36.61629177551803,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.047619047619044,35.002811549465626,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,45.809523809523796,34.03615459868672,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.47619047619046,32.62962647463809,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,43.33333333333333,34.56355030672918,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,37.619047619047606,30.421636182713975,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.85714285714285,25.799072425986303,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -LightGBM,35.99999999999999,27.664714643052324,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.904761904761898,26.58823462824348,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -TFT,29.14285714285713,24.074542520238907,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,27.000000000000007,14.94665084779918,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoTheta,26.095238095238095,20.18219419387095,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,23.619047619047613,20.17693379420851,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,22.476190476190474,18.076754194913157,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -Naive,17.380952380952376,8.938030239814665,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.999999999999998,10.236281397576896,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.619047619047615,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.68663594470046,42.98441909536225,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,81.93548387096774,42.37962809390597,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,81.19815668202764,42.20523827207805,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,80.00000000000001,42.006798813920796,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,76.49769585253456,41.19031821593736,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,75.29953917050692,41.4119139750456,0.0,3.779669762162874,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,74.56221198156682,40.805224762539694,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,69.5852534562212,39.81314672865939,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Chronos-2,68.94009216589862,40.47703024635902,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,68.11059907834101,39.82701860526772,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.0967741935484,38.70507938155933,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.19815668202765,38.48001468455288,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +citras-fm,59.354838709677416,38.07284039930927,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,57.511520737327196,37.939637725184305,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,54.47004608294931,35.39038084875803,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,53.041474654377886,36.61629177551803,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.645161290322584,35.002811549465626,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,44.70046082949309,34.03615459868672,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.41013824884793,32.62962647463809,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,42.3963133640553,34.56355030672918,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,36.77419354838709,30.421636182713975,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.036866359447004,25.799072425986303,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +LightGBM,35.29953917050691,27.664714643052324,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,31.152073732718893,26.58823462824348,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +TFT,28.387096774193544,24.074542520238907,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.49769585253456,14.94665084779918,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoTheta,25.34562211981567,20.18219419387095,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.857142857142858,20.17693379420851,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,22.027649769585256,18.076754194913157,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +Naive,16.912442396313367,8.938030239814665,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +Drift,15.66820276497696,10.236281397576896,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.400921658986176,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 5f20033d5457bcd2f796e204439efe33059d0ffe..fe961b816bb9d07a53e058ae038b49c2001cdeb7 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,86.38095238095237,56.601027737395505,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,85.33333333333334,56.24594683677972,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,83.23809523809523,56.153039055320534,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,82.3809523809524,56.008529924072505,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,77.99999999999999,55.1331402332338,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,77.99999999999999,54.6012530865724,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,74.85714285714285,54.956049957217616,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.95238095238096,54.15563623568822,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,71.14285714285714,53.962013710251625,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.95238095238093,53.071981977564405,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,65.42857142857142,52.79391261932832,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -TS-ICL,61.999999999999986,52.49405634788529,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,60.76190476190474,51.794154070081255,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,56.57142857142856,50.37345891984082,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,56.52380952380951,50.95532629740666,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.571428571428555,49.44557468666984,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,51.23809523809523,49.813403234908485,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.09523809523809,48.15956039754633,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.52380952380952,45.65760722577821,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,35.8095238095238,43.12812641312074,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -TFT,33.23809523809524,40.55122516723462,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,31.619047619047613,28.823634833572388,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -DeepAR,28.857142857142854,37.56325937155223,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,26.238095238095234,-13.587078390469642,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -LightGBM,25.04761904761904,33.00191912776389,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,24.47619047619047,35.55542329051369,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,24.38095238095238,29.200998362644015,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoTheta,18.190476190476186,14.938651834571226,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.666666666666664,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.333333333333332,-24.141881005489306,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.19047619047619,-21.43004900644645,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.99078341013825,56.601027737395505,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,84.7926267281106,56.24594683677972,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,82.58064516129032,56.153039055320534,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,81.84331797235022,56.008529924072505,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,78.15668202764977,55.481354409292294,0.0,3.779669762162874,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,77.6036866359447,55.1331402332338,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,76.86635944700461,54.6012530865724,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,73.91705069124424,54.956049957217616,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.25806451612902,54.15563623568822,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,70.13824884792625,53.962013710251625,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.6774193548387,53.071981977564405,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,63.870967741935466,52.79391261932832,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.27649769585254,52.49405634788529,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,59.2626728110599,51.794154070081255,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,55.39170506912442,50.37345891984082,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.97695852534563,50.95532629740666,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.092165898617516,49.44557468666984,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,49.953917050691246,49.813403234908485,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.792626728110605,48.15956039754633,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.497695852534555,45.65760722577821,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,34.93087557603687,43.12812641312074,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +TFT,32.25806451612903,40.55122516723462,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,30.87557603686636,28.823634833572388,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +DeepAR,27.926267281105993,37.56325937155223,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,25.57603686635945,-13.587078390469642,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +LightGBM,24.23963133640553,33.00191912776389,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,23.77880184331797,35.55542329051369,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,23.686635944700463,29.200998362644015,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoTheta,17.6036866359447,14.938651834571226,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.322580645161288,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.0,-24.141881005489306,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.861751152073731,-21.43004900644645,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index eb5bc7bfe6eadf94f2fcdc8b828b73ee496e4843..5e6ee8ff7e82b08d88673ec3787df6d80f572c90 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-1B,83.61904761904762,45.64380153509545,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.61904761904762,46.07175559172698,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,83.23809523809523,45.49656398580171,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,82.38095238095237,46.46423112531743,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,78.47619047619048,43.976482848629104,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.61904761904762,42.766138549210844,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -TiRex-2,69.04761904761902,42.04767479559661,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,68.76190476190474,44.34184922951903,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,67.9047619047619,42.28603186556402,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,66.19047619047618,41.644068882649776,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.9047619047619,42.06152219112852,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -TS-ICL,58.66666666666666,41.074696879936454,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,57.28571428571427,40.61852164348273,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -citras-fm,55.90476190476191,40.47090143499153,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,53.23809523809522,39.58186553887033,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.476190476190474,37.95787313736294,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,48.76190476190476,40.353645428709726,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.0,38.547278765276026,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.28571428571428,34.35604853400894,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,37.42857142857142,32.22451376950516,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.571428571428555,26.656189157155087,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -CatBoost,33.23809523809523,30.3363690234262,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,32.47619047619047,24.144419239287817,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -TFT,30.952380952380942,25.518118709758486,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,28.047619047619044,17.598567846659442,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -DeepAR,27.8095238095238,24.540387510587635,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.14285714285714,21.013255167194846,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.999999999999993,13.99112565126096,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,20.190476190476186,16.45553689708581,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -Drift,17.714285714285705,10.971858113653743,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.047619047619042,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,83.31797235023042,45.64380153509545,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,83.31797235023042,46.07175559172698,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,82.94930875576037,45.49656398580171,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,81.93548387096774,46.46423112531743,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,78.06451612903227,43.976482848629104,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,74.47004608294931,44.86107768962368,0.0,3.779669762162874,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.05990783410138,42.766138549210844,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Chronos-2,67.74193548387096,44.34184922951903,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,67.74193548387096,42.04767479559661,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,67.0967741935484,42.28603186556402,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,65.16129032258064,41.644068882649776,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.58064516129031,42.06152219112852,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TS-ICL,57.235023041474655,41.074696879936454,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,55.80645161290322,40.61852164348273,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +citras-fm,54.47004608294931,40.47090143499153,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,52.165898617511516,39.58186553887033,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.184331797235025,37.95787313736294,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,47.64976958525345,40.353645428709726,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.97695852534562,38.547278765276026,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,37.41935483870968,34.35604853400894,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,36.68202764976958,32.22451376950516,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.76036866359447,26.656189157155087,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +CatBoost,32.44239631336405,30.3363690234262,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,31.797235023041477,24.144419239287817,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +TFT,30.138248847926263,25.518118709758486,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,27.51152073732719,17.598567846659442,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +DeepAR,27.09677419354839,24.540387510587635,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.608294930875573,21.013255167194846,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.599078341013826,13.99112565126096,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,19.723502304147463,16.45553689708581,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +Drift,17.419354838709676,10.971858113653743,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.87557603686636,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 0ff7539dc239bb49d09b949011b22b74bba427b0..60ec06022fb49f062fd8ccb9e33e067adf3515da 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-2.0-2.5B,85.42857142857144,61.12488612662447,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,84.95238095238095,60.918796028667344,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,84.85714285714286,60.99353902913318,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-3,84.47619047619047,61.588975573652924,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,80.19047619047619,59.957413683613666,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.28571428571426,58.85524417940593,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -Chronos-2,72.38095238095237,59.9945361042916,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,71.71428571428568,58.018097250967585,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,70.38095238095238,58.32177026876002,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.57142857142856,57.57875059562707,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.14285714285712,58.140880584922364,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -TS-ICL,62.095238095238095,57.47539152663897,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.238095238095234,56.60363357702494,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 -FlowState,58.952380952380935,56.46151176362224,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 -citras-fm,58.76190476190474,56.39580865624714,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,56.09523809523809,57.33556321837573,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.95238095238094,54.39269754289919,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,46.09523809523809,53.38177631854182,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,40.57142857142856,50.110970512146395,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,37.14285714285714,50.12690699864979,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 -TFT,31.999999999999996,43.04581202805166,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 -DeepAR,31.523809523809522,43.43420693962238,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,27.999999999999996,26.514107240222685,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 -CatBoost,24.952380952380953,38.8350615663292,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,23.904761904761898,33.398505642559904,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,22.809523809523803,-16.00702788254289,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoARIMA,22.19047619047619,30.90771158984613,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 -AutoTheta,15.999999999999998,10.999807424594232,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.666666666666666,-25.39025550566012,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.428571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.238095238095235,-26.642604521337976,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,84.88479262672811,61.12488612662447,0.0,5.4132902212121214,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,84.51612903225806,60.918796028667344,0.0,1.0077612054761904,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,84.42396313364056,60.99353902913318,0.0,2.558476265800866,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,84.14746543778801,61.588975573652924,0.0,7.850708046656413,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,79.90783410138249,59.957413683613666,0.0,0.23064212619047622,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,77.14285714285714,60.480458722374244,0.0,3.779669762162874,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.45622119815668,58.85524417940593,0.0,44.222308597403845,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +Chronos-2,71.0599078341014,59.9945361042916,0.0,1.1849748603,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,70.50691244239631,58.018097250967585,0.0,0.26017567325782565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,69.30875576036867,58.32177026876002,0.0,0.19324943976190476,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,67.55760368663594,57.57875059562707,0.0,0.32911286958333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,65.80645161290322,58.140880584922364,0.0,5.895658940000001,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +TS-ICL,60.46082949308755,57.47539152663897,0.0,3.3165032260764677,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.57142857142858,56.60363357702494,0.0,0.431608325,0.3142857142857143,0.0 +FlowState,57.78801843317971,56.46151176362224,0.0,4.2874189791,0.05714285714285714,0.0 +citras-fm,57.327188940092164,56.39580865624714,0.0,0.7538805536127516,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,54.74654377880185,57.33556321837573,0.0,296.51637025115633,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,50.46082949308756,54.39269754289919,0.0,0.41097235624999995,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,44.97695852534562,53.38177631854182,0.0,272.2124274120408,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,39.63133640552995,50.110970512146395,1166.9339861665383,0.8156210857142857,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,36.12903225806451,50.12690699864979,0.0,8.009474041714286,0.0,0.0 +TFT,30.96774193548388,43.04581202805166,1175.3819149861429,1.1615856007142857,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,30.691244239631338,43.43420693962238,1929.7692648929808,1.66941923475,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,27.28110599078341,26.514107240222685,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,2.857142857142857 +CatBoost,24.147465437788018,38.8350615663292,85.04530864050001,0.5953758560714286,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,23.225806451612904,33.398505642559904,5.0175009462,0.4638569017857143,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,22.258064516129032,-16.00702788254289,0.0,3.970462877558334,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoARIMA,21.47465437788018,30.90771158984613,0.0,18.755229074642855,0.0,2.857142857142857 +AutoTheta,15.57603686635945,10.999807424594232,0.0,3.600769502857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.382488479262674,-25.39025550566012,0.0,0.9265094010869566,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,11.152073732718895,0.0,0.0,0.9125925713043479,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.032258064516128,-26.642604521337976,0.0,0.9685240114285714,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv index 884f74b891561fdcd2ea1e006d40b782f7cf0dfb..6f301ae06213ef8a5d4a1effa696db998e442ea2 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,16 +4,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.011,-0.053,0.027 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.003,-0.013,0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.006,-0.003,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.02,0.002,0.041 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.017,-0.026,0.056 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.027,-0.017,0.069 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.032,-0.005,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.043,0.003,0.077 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.032,-0.005,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.042,0.007,0.079 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.06,0.006,0.117 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.063,0.015,0.107 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.07,0.023,0.12 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.072,0.021,0.114 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.108,0.051,0.166 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.091,0.028,0.151 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.113,0.058,0.166 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.424,0.337,0.5 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.01,-0.027,0.05 @@ -21,16 +21,16 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.429,0.257,0.6,0.013,-0.024,0.054 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.017,-0.022,0.058 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.031,-0.001,0.068 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.027,-0.008,0.059 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.037,0.0,0.082 -TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.042,0.01,0.077 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.053,0.013,0.101 +TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.042,0.01,0.077 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.052,0.012,0.096 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.07,0.023,0.118 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.073,0.043,0.104 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.079,0.032,0.127 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.081,0.034,0.128 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.118,0.073,0.163 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.1,0.048,0.152 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.123,0.074,0.175 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.43,0.352,0.498 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.003,-0.02,0.013 @@ -38,16 +38,16 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.571,0.4,0.743,-0.014,-0.058,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.229,0.543,0.003,-0.006,0.013 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.017,-0.001,0.035 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.629,0.486,0.8,0.014,-0.035,0.054 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.772,0.024,-0.023,0.066 -Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.029,-0.017,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.04,-0.002,0.075 +Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.029,-0.017,0.071 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.04,-0.003,0.077 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.057,0.002,0.11 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.061,0.018,0.103 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.067,0.016,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.069,0.013,0.113 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.105,0.047,0.164 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.088,0.026,0.146 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.111,0.059,0.16 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.422,0.336,0.5 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.006,-0.017,0.003 @@ -55,16 +55,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.017,-0.062,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.6,0.457,0.771,-0.003,-0.013,0.006 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.014,-0.006,0.036 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.01,-0.036,0.054 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.629,0.485,0.8,0.02,-0.026,0.065 -Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.026,-0.017,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.036,-0.006,0.072 +Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.026,-0.017,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.036,-0.005,0.075 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.054,0.0,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.057,0.011,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.064,0.012,0.114 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.066,0.01,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.102,0.044,0.161 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.085,0.021,0.146 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.108,0.054,0.159 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.42,0.334,0.497 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.021,-0.042,-0.002 @@ -72,84 +72,101 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.031,-0.073,0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.018,-0.037,0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.014,-0.037,0.005 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.686,0.514,0.829,-0.004,-0.039,0.026 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.629,0.486,0.772,0.007,-0.026,0.035 -Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.686,0.543,0.857,0.012,-0.022,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.023,-0.007,0.051 +Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.686,0.543,0.857,0.012,-0.022,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.023,-0.005,0.044 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.801,0.041,-0.002,0.083 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.044,0.003,0.08 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.05,0.011,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.052,0.012,0.087 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.09,0.034,0.144 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.072,0.019,0.12 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.095,0.047,0.137 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.412,0.327,0.485 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.017,-0.059,0.026 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.028,-0.063,0.008 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.2,0.514,-0.014,-0.057,0.034 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.01,-0.057,0.035 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.314,0.171,0.486,0.004,-0.027,0.037 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.01,-0.014,0.037 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.027,-0.001,0.057 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.016,-0.005,0.036 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.026,0.003,0.05 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.044,0.016,0.078 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.048,0.016,0.081 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.054,0.028,0.084 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.056,0.033,0.085 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.093,0.046,0.137 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.099,0.062,0.134 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.414,0.333,0.484 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.027,-0.074,0.017 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.038,-0.089,-0.0 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.228,0.543,-0.024,-0.071,0.023 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.371,0.2,0.515,-0.021,-0.07,0.026 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.371,0.228,0.514,-0.007,-0.036,0.025 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.01,-0.038,0.014 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.006,-0.031,0.04 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.016,-0.008,0.044 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.006,-0.031,0.04 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.016,-0.002,0.034 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.034,0.014,0.059 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.038,0.002,0.072 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.044,0.023,0.069 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.046,0.02,0.074 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.084,0.028,0.133 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.066,0.031,0.102 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.089,0.052,0.125 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.408,0.327,0.475 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.033,-0.074,0.005 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.044,-0.083,-0.01 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.03,-0.076,0.017 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.026,-0.075,0.017 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.314,0.143,0.457,-0.012,-0.049,0.022 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.006,-0.042,0.03 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.011,-0.026,0.048 -Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.543,0.371,0.686,0.011,-0.018,0.04 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.029,-0.004,0.064 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.032,-0.003,0.065 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.039,0.011,0.069 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.041,0.011,0.074 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.079,0.033,0.122 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.061,0.018,0.102 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.084,0.048,0.121 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.405,0.329,0.472 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.045,-0.084,-0.003 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.056,-0.112,-0.013 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.041,-0.081,0.002 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.038,-0.078,0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.023,-0.054,0.007 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.027,-0.06,0.001 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.017,-0.046,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.011,-0.051,0.025 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.011,-0.051,0.025 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.714,-0.0,-0.024,0.022 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.018,-0.02,0.056 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.629,0.471,0.771,0.022,-0.016,0.056 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.028,-0.003,0.06 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.03,0.009,0.051 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.686,0.542,0.829,0.068,0.012,0.121 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.05,0.007,0.093 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.586,0.871,0.074,0.029,0.116 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.398,0.317,0.469 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.033,-0.074,0.005 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.044,-0.083,-0.01 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.03,-0.076,0.017 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.026,-0.075,0.017 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.314,0.143,0.457,-0.012,-0.049,0.022 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.016,-0.037,0.005 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.006,-0.042,0.03 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.011,-0.026,0.048 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.543,0.371,0.686,0.011,-0.018,0.04 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.029,-0.004,0.064 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.032,-0.003,0.065 +Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.039,0.011,0.069 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.041,0.011,0.074 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.079,0.033,0.122 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.084,0.048,0.121 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.405,0.329,0.472 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.044,-0.086,-0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.055,-0.106,-0.012 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.041,-0.083,0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.038,-0.081,0.005 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.023,-0.046,0.005 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.027,-0.052,-0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.017,-0.036,0.002 -Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.457,0.314,0.629,-0.011,-0.041,0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.286,0.6,0.0,-0.022,0.024 +Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.457,0.314,0.629,-0.011,-0.041,0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.018,-0.005,0.044 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.022,-0.017,0.057 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.028,0.009,0.049 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.03,0.01,0.053 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.069,0.018,0.117 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.051,0.01,0.087 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.074,0.036,0.109 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.398,0.319,0.465 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.064,-0.132,-0.006 @@ -157,16 +174,16 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.061,-0.123,-0.002 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.057,-0.125,-0.0 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.199,0.486,-0.042,-0.09,0.002 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.046,-0.085,-0.016 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.035,-0.063,-0.014 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.03,-0.069,0.004 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.019 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.03,-0.069,0.004 TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.019,-0.046,0.005 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.004,-0.031,0.041 TiRex,citras-fm,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.01,-0.009,0.032 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.012,-0.02,0.043 TiRex,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.051,0.0,0.1 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.033,0.007,0.057 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.057,0.028,0.088 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.387,0.315,0.447 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.068,-0.12,-0.015 @@ -174,16 +191,16 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.079,-0.116,-0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.064,-0.115,-0.019 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.061,-0.114,-0.011 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.046,-0.087,-0.003 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.05,-0.088,-0.016 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.039,-0.078,-0.002 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.034,-0.069,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.371,0.229,0.529,-0.022,-0.06,0.015 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.034,-0.069,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.022,-0.06,0.016 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.004,-0.043,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.486,0.314,0.657,0.007,-0.035,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.009,-0.032,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.442,0.757,0.048,0.008,0.092 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.557,0.843,0.029,-0.001,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.053,0.024,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.385,0.314,0.449 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.075,-0.136,-0.024 @@ -191,16 +208,16 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.086,-0.146,-0.033 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.072,-0.13,-0.016 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.068,-0.128,-0.012 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.053,-0.094,-0.011 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.057,-0.092,-0.029 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.046,-0.075,-0.024 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.04,-0.075,-0.011 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.029,-0.064,0.003 +citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.04,-0.075,-0.011 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.029,-0.051,-0.009 citras-fm,TiRex,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.01,-0.034,0.009 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.514,0.343,0.686,-0.007,-0.05,0.034 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.4,0.257,0.544,0.002,-0.022,0.027 citras-fm,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.042,-0.017,0.091 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.023,-0.016,0.053 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.047,0.01,0.077 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.381,0.303,0.446 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.077,-0.129,-0.022 @@ -208,16 +225,16 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.088,-0.147,-0.035 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.074,-0.127,-0.013 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.07,-0.123,-0.01 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.055,-0.095,-0.012 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.059,-0.093,-0.034 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.048,-0.08,-0.021 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.043,-0.08,-0.012 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.043,-0.08,-0.012 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.031,-0.056,-0.01 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.012,-0.045,0.02 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.009,-0.049,0.031 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.6,0.456,0.743,-0.002,-0.028,0.021 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.039,-0.016,0.091 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.4,0.714,0.021,-0.015,0.056 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.045,0.007,0.08 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.379,0.301,0.448 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.121,-0.199,-0.054 @@ -225,50 +242,33 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.133,-0.195,-0.079 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.118,-0.196,-0.049 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.114,-0.192,-0.047 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.099,-0.169,-0.035 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.103,-0.158,-0.048 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.091,-0.153,-0.029 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.085,-0.139,-0.035 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.073,-0.138,-0.012 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.085,-0.139,-0.035 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.074,-0.132,-0.019 FlowState,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.054,-0.112,-0.0 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.243,0.557,-0.05,-0.102,-0.008 FlowState,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.043,-0.1,0.017 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.041,-0.1,0.016 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.329,0.643,-0.019,-0.076,0.034 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.543,0.386,0.686,0.006,-0.028,0.048 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.354,0.292,0.41 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.1,-0.177,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.112,-0.179,-0.051 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.097,-0.171,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.093,-0.171,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.078,-0.136,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.071,-0.113,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.065,-0.114,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.053,-0.102,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.053,-0.096,-0.01 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.034,-0.06,-0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.157,0.443,-0.03,-0.062,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.024,-0.056,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.6,-0.021,-0.06,0.015 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.514,0.357,0.671,0.019,-0.035,0.071 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.486,0.757,0.025,-0.0,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.366,0.299,0.427 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.128,-0.199,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.14,-0.212,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.125,-0.19,-0.063 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.121,-0.189,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.105,-0.159,-0.05 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.109,-0.155,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.098,-0.142,-0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.092,-0.137,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.257,0.129,0.414,-0.08,-0.132,-0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.092,-0.137,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.08,-0.122,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.06,-0.096,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.057,-0.095,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.05,-0.084,-0.01 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.047,-0.087,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.457,0.314,0.614,-0.006,-0.05,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.386,0.243,0.514,-0.025,-0.058,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.35,0.284,0.409 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.735,-1.001,-0.509 @@ -276,15 +276,15 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.754,-0.992,-0.542 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.73,-0.999,-0.506 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.724,-0.988,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.7,-0.942,-0.485 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.707,-0.939,-0.5 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.689,-0.905,-0.485 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.68,-0.895,-0.491 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.661,-0.884,-0.464 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.68,-0.895,-0.491 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.662,-0.87,-0.469 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.631,-0.808,-0.46 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.625,-0.815,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.615,-0.805,-0.435 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.611,-0.81,-0.431 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.548,-0.696,-0.412 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.578,-0.745,-0.426 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.029,0.0,0.086,-0.539,-0.691,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv index e75ebf1c2608edb3ebc5f98cd0dc31917cb80e60..431fd1ce58c0e23c74e10be9a3c8d57bf3d506fe 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,16 +4,16 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.008,-0.048,0.027 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.002,-0.015,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.005,-0.006,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.686,0.914,0.025,0.007,0.043 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.017,-0.022,0.052 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.657,0.514,0.829,0.036,-0.009,0.077 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.029,-0.007,0.06 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.046,0.005,0.081 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.068,0.02,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.05,0.016,0.083 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.068,0.02,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.073,0.027,0.115 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.079,0.032,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.092,0.044,0.14 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.118,0.064,0.174 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.108,0.045,0.166 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.135,0.077,0.188 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.562,0.46,0.652 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.008,-0.028,0.046 @@ -21,16 +21,16 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.01,-0.024,0.047 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.486,0.314,0.657,0.013,-0.023,0.052 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.571,0.4,0.715,0.033,0.001,0.073 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.025,-0.007,0.054 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.044,0.005,0.093 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.037,0.003,0.07 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.053,0.012,0.102 -TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.075,0.03,0.126 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.057,0.018,0.104 +TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.075,0.03,0.126 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.081,0.048,0.11 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.086,0.041,0.133 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.1,0.051,0.155 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.125,0.083,0.17 -TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.115,0.061,0.173 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.142,0.089,0.199 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.473,0.647 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.002,-0.018,0.015 @@ -38,16 +38,16 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.01,-0.05,0.023 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.371,0.2,0.514,0.003,-0.004,0.011 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.023,0.008,0.039 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.629,0.486,0.8,0.015,-0.028,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.034,-0.01,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.027,-0.015,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.044,0.002,0.076 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.066,0.015,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.048,0.009,0.081 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.066,0.015,0.115 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.071,0.03,0.113 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.077,0.028,0.117 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.09,0.037,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.116,0.061,0.173 -Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.106,0.046,0.162 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.133,0.078,0.184 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.46,0.65 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.005,-0.017,0.006 @@ -55,16 +55,16 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.514,0.343,0.686,-0.014,-0.055,0.022 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.629,0.486,0.8,-0.003,-0.011,0.004 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.02,0.002,0.038 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.657,0.486,0.829,0.012,-0.031,0.05 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.031,-0.014,0.073 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.023,-0.017,0.061 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.04,-0.004,0.075 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.063,0.012,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.044,0.007,0.08 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.063,0.012,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.068,0.024,0.111 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.074,0.023,0.115 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.087,0.035,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.114,0.06,0.17 -Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.103,0.04,0.162 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.13,0.073,0.184 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.56,0.458,0.649 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.314,-0.025,-0.045,-0.007 @@ -72,33 +72,50 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.429,0.285,0.6,-0.034,-0.079,-0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.023,-0.04,-0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.02,-0.039,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.657,0.486,0.829,-0.008,-0.044,0.024 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.012,-0.022,0.042 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.657,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.033,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.021,-0.009,0.047 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.801,0.044,0.004,0.083 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.025,-0.001,0.047 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.801,0.044,0.004,0.083 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.05,0.008,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.056,0.017,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.069,0.028,0.106 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.096,0.041,0.15 -Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.085,0.035,0.133 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.113,0.062,0.157 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.017,-0.054,0.021 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.026,-0.057,0.007 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.2,0.514,-0.015,-0.054,0.027 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.343,0.171,0.514,-0.012,-0.053,0.03 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.171,0.514,0.008,-0.024,0.042 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.019,-0.006,0.05 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.012,-0.007,0.031 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.486,0.314,0.657,0.029,0.003,0.061 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.033,0.008,0.062 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.051,0.021,0.088 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.057,0.027,0.086 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.063,0.039,0.093 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.076,0.045,0.115 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.103,0.058,0.145 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.119,0.08,0.158 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.463,0.64 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.343,0.171,0.486,-0.038,-0.083,0.009 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.046,-0.103,-0.005 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.035,-0.081,0.009 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.032,-0.079,0.014 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.012,-0.044,0.022 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.02,-0.053,0.006 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.008,-0.048,0.026 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.486,0.314,0.629,0.01,-0.016,0.037 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.033,0.014,0.055 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.014,-0.003,0.031 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.033,0.014,0.055 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.038,0.001,0.072 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.044,0.021,0.07 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.058,0.036,0.082 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.085,0.032,0.131 -TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.074,0.042,0.107 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.943,0.102,0.07,0.133 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.454,0.631 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.029,-0.064,0.007 @@ -106,16 +123,16 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.038,-0.075,-0.003 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.027,-0.069,0.015 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.024,-0.065,0.017 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.171,0.486,-0.004,-0.04,0.032 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.012,-0.032,0.007 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.008,-0.026,0.046 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.486,0.314,0.657,0.017,-0.02,0.055 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.543,0.399,0.686,0.04,0.007,0.078 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.022,-0.007,0.055 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.543,0.399,0.686,0.04,0.007,0.078 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.046,0.011,0.079 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.052,0.024,0.085 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.066,0.034,0.106 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.092,0.048,0.138 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.082,0.036,0.127 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.109,0.069,0.151 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.456,0.636 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.048,-0.088,-0.005 @@ -123,67 +140,67 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.056,-0.113,-0.012 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.046,-0.082,-0.002 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.042,-0.081,0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.022,-0.05,0.009 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.514,0.343,0.686,-0.03,-0.065,-0.003 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.514,0.371,0.686,-0.01,-0.038,0.016 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.514,0.343,0.686,-0.018,-0.059,0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.023,-0.014,0.059 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.02,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.023,-0.014,0.059 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.657,0.5,0.8,0.029,-0.012,0.065 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.035,0.014,0.057 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.049,0.015,0.08 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.076,0.02,0.13 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.065,0.024,0.104 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.093,0.048,0.135 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.445,0.632 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.073,-0.134,-0.02 -TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.081,-0.144,-0.031 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.07,-0.13,-0.016 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.067,-0.13,-0.012 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.199,0.486,-0.046,-0.091,-0.004 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.034,-0.059,-0.014 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.457,0.314,0.601,-0.042,-0.084,-0.007 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.024,-0.062,0.013 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.019,-0.045,0.004 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.006,-0.03,0.041 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.012,-0.017,0.039 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.027,0.004,0.051 -TiRex,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.054,0.004,0.103 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.043,0.017,0.068 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.072,0.046,0.101 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.441,0.618 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.052,-0.09,-0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.061,-0.116,-0.018 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.05,-0.089,-0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.047,-0.087,-0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.026,-0.05,0.001 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.034,-0.066,-0.008 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.014,-0.032,0.003 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.022,-0.058,0.007 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.004,-0.026,0.019 -Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.019,-0.004,0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.019,-0.004,0.043 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.025,-0.016,0.059 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.031,0.011,0.05 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.045,0.022,0.068 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.072,0.021,0.12 -Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.061,0.022,0.096 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.089,0.05,0.126 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.54,0.442,0.629 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.073,-0.134,-0.02 +TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.081,-0.144,-0.031 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.07,-0.13,-0.016 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.067,-0.13,-0.012 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.199,0.486,-0.046,-0.091,-0.004 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.054,-0.097,-0.021 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.034,-0.059,-0.014 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.457,0.314,0.601,-0.042,-0.084,-0.007 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.024,-0.062,0.013 +TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.019,-0.045,0.004 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.006,-0.03,0.041 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.012,-0.017,0.039 +TiRex,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.027,0.004,0.051 +TiRex,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.054,0.004,0.103 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.072,0.046,0.101 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.441,0.618 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.079,-0.129,-0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.088,-0.124,-0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.077,-0.127,-0.031 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.073,-0.125,-0.025 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.052,-0.094,-0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.06,-0.094,-0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.04,-0.078,-0.001 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.048,-0.086,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.343,0.2,0.5,-0.03,-0.07,0.011 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.006,-0.042,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.025,-0.062,0.016 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.006,-0.042,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.006,-0.032,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.571,0.428,0.743,0.021,-0.023,0.068 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.714,0.557,0.843,0.049,0.013,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.037,0.004,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.6,0.871,0.066,0.032,0.105 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.437,0.613 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.086,-0.133,-0.033 @@ -191,16 +208,16 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.095,-0.154,-0.042 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.083,-0.132,-0.028 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.08,-0.13,-0.023 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.059,-0.094,-0.018 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.067,-0.102,-0.041 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.046,-0.075,-0.022 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.055,-0.093,-0.024 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.036,-0.06,-0.014 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.012,-0.04,0.017 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.032,-0.052,-0.012 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.012,-0.04,0.017 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.006,-0.044,0.031 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.015,-0.012,0.039 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.043,-0.01,0.091 -TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.031,-0.002,0.063 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.06,0.026,0.094 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.431,0.614 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.102,-0.162,-0.046 @@ -208,16 +225,16 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.111,-0.184,-0.054 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.099,-0.16,-0.039 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.096,-0.159,-0.036 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.074,-0.119,-0.029 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.083,-0.13,-0.047 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.062,-0.09,-0.038 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.07,-0.118,-0.035 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.052,-0.087,-0.016 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.027,-0.054,-0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.047,-0.073,-0.023 +citras-fm,TiRex,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.027,-0.054,-0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.257,0.572,-0.021,-0.073,0.022 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.015,-0.041,0.012 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.029,-0.034,0.083 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.017,-0.021,0.045 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.046,0.012,0.075 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.518,0.42,0.609 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.134,-0.211,-0.069 @@ -225,50 +242,33 @@ FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.143,-0.204,-0.091 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.132,-0.209,-0.065 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.128,-0.205,-0.064 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.106,-0.176,-0.043 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.115,-0.17,-0.062 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.093,-0.151,-0.033 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.102,-0.159,-0.05 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.083,-0.149,-0.021 -FlowState,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.058,-0.114,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.078,-0.137,-0.021 +FlowState,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.058,-0.114,-0.004 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.157,0.443,-0.051,-0.095,-0.013 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.045,-0.1,0.01 FlowState,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.029,-0.09,0.033 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.329,0.643,-0.012,-0.07,0.046 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.543,0.386,0.7,0.018,-0.02,0.067 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.419,0.585 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.121,-0.199,-0.047 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.13,-0.209,-0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.119,-0.193,-0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.115,-0.193,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.093,-0.153,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.08,-0.12,-0.044 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.089,-0.146,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.07,-0.116,-0.024 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.045,-0.073,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.065,-0.106,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.039,-0.08,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.032,-0.067,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.017,-0.047,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.514,0.357,0.671,0.012,-0.048,0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.671,0.543,0.8,0.03,0.004,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.418,0.595 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.155,-0.231,-0.083 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.165,-0.248,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.153,-0.226,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.149,-0.226,-0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.127,-0.187,-0.066 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.136,-0.188,-0.087 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.143,0.057,0.286,-0.114,-0.153,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.122,-0.178,-0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.103,-0.156,-0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.077,-0.113,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.098,-0.144,-0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.077,-0.113,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.257,0.129,0.4,-0.071,-0.117,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.064,-0.104,-0.026 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.049,-0.081,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.457,0.3,0.614,-0.019,-0.072,0.02 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.329,0.2,0.457,-0.031,-0.062,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.401,0.58 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.286,-1.875,-0.853 @@ -276,15 +276,15 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.304,-1.836,-0.896 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.281,-1.856,-0.852 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.273,-1.849,-0.843 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.229,-1.785,-0.822 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.246,-1.779,-0.864 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.203,-1.713,-0.831 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.747,-0.838 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.181,-1.714,-0.803 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.617,-0.788 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.172,-1.696,-0.793 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.617,-0.788 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.118,-1.584,-0.776 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-1.592,-0.756 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.074,-1.559,-0.723 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.015,-1.409,-0.72 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.039,-1.47,-0.717 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.978,-1.383,-0.67 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 2141e1e1ba2a11efd9492bd53320a3480893a12c..56fbc87d0e5b42c5be0cb4a5fbcdab6e18da6acf 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.008,-0.005,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.011,-0.009,0.034 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.657,0.514,0.8,-0.007,-0.067,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.037,0.006,0.073 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.022,-0.031,0.061 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.058,0.006,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.031,-0.014,0.072 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.069,0.028,0.122 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.069,0.009,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.085,0.023,0.14 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.092,0.015,0.164 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.094,0.037,0.152 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.107,0.023,0.182 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.131,0.062,0.196 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.461,0.352,0.555 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.008,-0.024,0.004 @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.003,-0.008,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.571,0.4,0.715,-0.015,-0.084,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.03,0.006,0.058 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.014,-0.042,0.055 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.05,-0.005,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.943,0.023,-0.032,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.062,0.023,0.107 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.062,0.003,0.11 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.078,0.013,0.128 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.085,0.006,0.153 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.087,0.027,0.142 -Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.1,0.01,0.177 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.124,0.055,0.185 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.456,0.348,0.548 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.011,-0.035,0.009 @@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.003,-0.014,0.008 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.6,0.429,0.744,-0.018,-0.097,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.027,0.008,0.047 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.012,-0.049,0.052 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.048,-0.005,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.021,-0.039,0.068 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.06,0.023,0.098 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.059,0.004,0.104 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.857,0.742,0.971,0.075,0.014,0.122 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.082,0.006,0.147 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.084,0.026,0.134 -Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.098,0.004,0.179 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.122,0.054,0.181 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.455,0.348,0.546 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.343,0.2,0.486,0.007,-0.038,0.063 @@ -55,6 +55,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.285,0.6,0.015,-0.034,0.078 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.4,0.256,0.571,0.018,-0.035,0.089 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.457,0.286,0.629,0.044,-0.011,0.12 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.029,-0.038,0.097 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.065,-0.005,0.152 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.038,-0.01,0.081 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.076,0.019,0.164 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.076,0.021,0.142 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.091,0.019,0.176 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.742,0.971,0.098,0.02,0.183 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.101,0.031,0.187 -TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.114,0.055,0.168 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.137,0.067,0.223 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.465,0.363,0.557 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.039,-0.079,-0.006 @@ -72,6 +72,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.031,-0.061,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.028,-0.05,-0.008 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.543,0.371,0.714,-0.046,-0.137,0.011 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.657,0.486,0.8,-0.016,-0.069,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.021,-0.02,0.063 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,-0.007,-0.074,0.042 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.033,0.008,0.059 @@ -81,14 +82,31 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.033,-0.013,0.07 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.049,-0.003,0.086 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.057,-0.006,0.11 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.059,0.013,0.097 -Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.073,-0.022,0.155 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.097,0.04,0.149 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.44,0.336,0.527 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.022,-0.065,0.031 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.014,-0.058,0.04 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.012,-0.055,0.047 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.03,-0.107,0.037 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.2,0.514,0.016,-0.023,0.064 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.457,0.286,0.6,0.037,-0.004,0.082 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.629,0.457,0.772,0.009,-0.024,0.037 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.049,0.008,0.101 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.714,0.045,0.01,0.085 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.055,0.012,0.106 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.048,0.0,0.09 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.064,0.037,0.095 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.071,0.022,0.116 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.074,0.043,0.112 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.111,0.06,0.161 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.449,0.345,0.536 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.061,-0.134,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.053,-0.119,0.005 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.05,-0.116,0.005 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.069,-0.179,0.005 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.022,-0.068,0.02 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.543,0.4,0.714,-0.038,-0.089,0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.686,0.543,0.857,-0.028,-0.099,0.029 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.012,-0.03,0.049 @@ -98,7 +116,6 @@ Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.543,0.815,0.012,-0.041,0.051 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.029,-0.006,0.06 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.036,-0.013,0.081 Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.039,-0.0,0.074 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.871,0.053,-0.047,0.138 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.078,0.02,0.129 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.428,0.331,0.511 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.032,-0.077,0.014 @@ -106,6 +123,7 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.057,0.343,-0.024,-0.076,0.031 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.021,-0.073,0.038 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.04,-0.088,0.01 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.257,0.114,0.4,0.007,-0.043,0.068 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.371,0.228,0.543,-0.009,-0.038,0.023 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.143,0.457,0.028,-0.03,0.09 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.6,0.429,0.743,0.04,-0.009,0.108 @@ -115,7 +133,6 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.039,-0.011,0.088 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.055,0.015,0.111 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.063,0.004,0.125 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.065,0.024,0.127 -Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.079,0.014,0.138 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.103,0.046,0.164 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.443,0.339,0.533 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.075,-0.139,-0.028 @@ -123,6 +140,7 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.066,-0.12,-0.023 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.063,-0.109,-0.023 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.082,-0.197,-0.019 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.034,-0.063,-0.008 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.051,-0.113,-0.008 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.013,-0.051,0.029 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.4,0.257,0.571,-0.041,-0.122,0.009 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.629,0.457,0.8,-0.0,-0.055,0.039 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.017,-0.03,0.052 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.024,-0.033,0.07 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.026,-0.007,0.05 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.041,-0.067,0.127 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.066,0.017,0.111 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.42,0.322,0.505 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.07,-0.127,-0.024 @@ -140,6 +157,7 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.062,-0.112,-0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.059,-0.101,-0.016 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.078,-0.181,-0.01 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.03,-0.055,-0.003 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.429,0.286,0.6,-0.047,-0.093,-0.01 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.343,0.199,0.514,-0.008,-0.036,0.021 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.037,-0.105,0.009 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.004,-0.019,0.028 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.657,0.514,0.829,0.004,-0.046,0.038 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.021,-0.015,0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.028,-0.023,0.071 Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.03,0.003,0.055 -Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.045,-0.052,0.128 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.571,0.886,0.07,0.016,0.117 Toto-2.0-4m,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.423,0.32,0.51 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.082,-0.165,-0.01 @@ -157,6 +174,7 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.074,-0.155,-0.001 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.071,-0.145,-0.002 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.09,-0.212,-0.012 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.042,-0.093,0.008 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.058,-0.118,-0.012 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.02,-0.059,0.018 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.229,0.544,-0.048,-0.127,0.008 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.007,-0.041,0.028 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,-0.007,-0.046,0.027 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.01,-0.026,0.04 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.017,-0.008,0.04 TiRex,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.02,-0.006,0.045 -TiRex,FlowState,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.034,-0.059,0.114 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.059,0.026,0.099 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.416,0.327,0.494 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.074,-0.138,-0.009 @@ -174,6 +191,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.066,-0.123,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.063,-0.116,-0.004 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.082,-0.166,-0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.034,-0.075,0.013 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.051,-0.099,-0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.185,0.457,-0.012,-0.054,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.041,-0.096,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.371,0.2,0.543,0.0,-0.041,0.052 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.017,-0.03,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.657,0.5,0.8,0.024,-0.012,0.059 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.629,0.457,0.772,0.027,-0.014,0.074 -TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.657,0.5,0.814,0.041,-0.023,0.105 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.571,0.843,0.066,0.032,0.106 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.421,0.335,0.502 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.093,-0.162,-0.024 @@ -191,6 +208,7 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.084,-0.147,-0.013 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.258,-0.081,-0.139,-0.015 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.101,-0.214,-0.02 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.052,-0.094,0.003 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.069,-0.105,-0.039 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.03,-0.063,0.006 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.059,-0.125,-0.015 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.017,-0.054,0.029 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.017,-0.064,0.029 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.4,0.714,0.008,-0.033,0.042 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.01,-0.013,0.034 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.571,0.4,0.715,0.025,-0.071,0.099 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.05,0.005,0.093 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.411,0.314,0.498 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.101,-0.196,-0.015 @@ -208,6 +225,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.092,-0.18,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.089,-0.173,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.258,-0.109,-0.224,-0.02 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.06,-0.124,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.077,-0.132,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.038,-0.088,0.013 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.067,-0.143,-0.004 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.025,-0.075,0.032 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.343,0.2,0.5,-0.025,-0.062,0.012 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.429,0.286,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.032 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.002,-0.028,0.037 -Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.514,0.357,0.671,0.017,-0.073,0.092 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.671,0.543,0.786,0.043,0.012,0.079 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.406,0.322,0.482 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.104,-0.18,-0.038 @@ -225,6 +242,7 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.095,-0.166,-0.028 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.092,-0.155,-0.026 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.112,-0.229,-0.032 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.063,-0.107,-0.013 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.08,-0.127,-0.045 citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.04,-0.079,0.0 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.07,-0.146,-0.024 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.027,-0.053,0.007 @@ -234,31 +252,14 @@ citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.371,0.228,0.543,-0.027,-0.08,0.014 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.01,-0.035,0.013 citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.002,-0.038,0.027 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.015,-0.083,0.092 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.041,-0.001,0.077 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.405,0.303,0.489 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.12,-0.223,-0.024 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.112,-0.215,-0.01 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.109,-0.219,-0.004 -FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.129,-0.201,-0.058 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.078,-0.184,0.021 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.257,0.129,0.4,-0.056,-0.161,0.045 -FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.086,-0.16,-0.014 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.043,-0.145,0.063 -FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.229,0.086,0.372,-0.047,-0.146,0.05 -FlowState,TiRex,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.035,-0.129,0.056 -FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.343,0.186,0.5,-0.043,-0.117,0.023 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.429,0.285,0.6,-0.025,-0.11,0.066 -FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.486,0.329,0.643,-0.017,-0.102,0.068 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.015,-0.101,0.076 -FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.543,0.386,0.7,0.026,-0.03,0.101 -FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.396,0.305,0.481 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.15,-0.243,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.141,-0.228,-0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.138,-0.221,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.159,-0.288,-0.072 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.107,-0.175,-0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.125,-0.192,-0.064 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.084,-0.148,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.115,-0.196,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.071,-0.125,-0.017 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.157,0.429,-0.071,-0.118,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.053,-0.102,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.329,0.214,0.457,-0.045,-0.086,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.343,0.2,0.514,-0.042,-0.084,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.457,0.3,0.614,-0.027,-0.113,0.029 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.38,0.295,0.455 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.854,-1.249,-0.542 @@ -276,6 +276,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.84,-1.211,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.835,-1.201,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.868,-1.257,-0.571 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.785,-1.113,-0.505 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.814,-1.155,-0.528 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.747,-1.046,-0.495 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.797,-1.143,-0.512 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.726,-1.021,-0.475 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.726,-1.009,-0.503 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.697,-0.991,-0.457 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.684,-0.93,-0.474 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.68,-0.958,-0.436 -Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.655,-0.926,-0.439 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.612,-0.834,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv index f42f72324e49f276e3c63aa0c7719aad6890ad08..0dc84f1a39ec61a07fff33caefafca0c65f7cac7 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_multivariate/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.005,-0.018,0.03 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.657,0.486,0.8,0.003,-0.01,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.629,0.485,0.771,-0.012,-0.069,0.029 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.029,-0.003,0.063 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.016,-0.031,0.051 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.055,-0.002,0.119 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.943,0.028,-0.013,0.065 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.074,0.028,0.133 @@ -11,7 +12,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.067,0.026,0.118 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.084,0.021,0.149 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.071,0.009,0.123 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.086,0.023,0.143 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.108,0.048,0.172 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.107,0.024,0.179 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.104,0.026,0.17 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.148,0.072,0.216 @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.371,0.229,0.514,-0.002,-0.016,0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.629,0.457,0.771,-0.017,-0.091,0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.024,0.007,0.042 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.011,-0.041,0.049 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.05,-0.004,0.106 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.023,-0.034,0.07 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.069,0.03,0.111 @@ -28,7 +29,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.062,0.025,0.1 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.079,0.022,0.138 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.066,0.014,0.109 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.081,0.02,0.129 -Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.104,0.043,0.157 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.771,0.628,0.914,0.102,0.01,0.183 Toto-2.0-313m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.099,0.025,0.164 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.143,0.074,0.204 @@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.629,0.486,0.771,0.002,-0.01,0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.571,0.4,0.714,-0.016,-0.078,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.026,0.002,0.051 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.013,-0.033,0.048 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.771,0.629,0.914,0.052,-0.004,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.943,0.025,-0.024,0.067 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.071,0.03,0.123 @@ -45,7 +46,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.064,0.025,0.109 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.08,0.021,0.142 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.068,0.013,0.116 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.083,0.02,0.137 -Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.105,0.045,0.164 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.104,0.017,0.18 Toto-2.0-1B,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.101,0.026,0.168 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.145,0.073,0.211 @@ -55,6 +55,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.371,0.229,0.543,0.017,-0.033,0.083 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.429,0.286,0.6,0.015,-0.029,0.072 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.041,-0.01,0.111 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.743,0.6,0.858,0.028,-0.029,0.085 TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.657,0.486,0.829,0.066,-0.004,0.155 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.8,0.657,0.943,0.04,-0.002,0.078 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.085,0.031,0.172 @@ -62,7 +63,6 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-4m,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.078,0.018,0.161 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.095,0.028,0.186 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.082,0.029,0.148 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.097,0.03,0.182 -TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.119,0.048,0.211 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.118,0.06,0.17 TimesFM-3,Moirai-2.0,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.115,0.036,0.204 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.158,0.088,0.246 @@ -72,6 +72,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.025,-0.043,-0.007 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.027,-0.054,-0.002 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.042,-0.125,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.714,0.571,0.857,-0.013,-0.06,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.027,-0.017,0.071 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.771,0.629,0.914,-0.001,-0.064,0.047 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.714,0.571,0.857,0.046,0.018,0.08 @@ -79,16 +80,33 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.039,0.013,0.063 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.056,0.01,0.1 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.043,-0.001,0.079 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.058,0.006,0.098 -Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.082,0.032,0.123 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.08,-0.008,0.16 Toto-2.0-22m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.077,0.014,0.129 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.122,0.062,0.176 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.6,0.511,0.678 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.017,-0.054,0.03 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.011,-0.051,0.039 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.013,-0.05,0.032 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.257,0.142,0.4,-0.029,-0.093,0.028 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.143,0.429,0.013,-0.024,0.056 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-1.0,0.514,0.343,0.686,0.039,-0.001,0.088 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.686,0.542,0.829,0.012,-0.018,0.038 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.059,0.017,0.112 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-4m,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.052,0.015,0.098 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.629,0.485,0.771,0.068,0.024,0.123 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.743,0.6,0.857,0.056,0.012,0.092 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.886,0.771,0.971,0.071,0.037,0.11 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.092,0.019,0.153 +t0-beta,Moirai-2.0,0.914,0.8,1.0,0.089,0.042,0.141 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.943,0.857,1.0,0.133,0.082,0.185 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.605,0.521,0.68 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.058,-0.135,0.002 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.053,-0.118,0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.086,0.371,-0.055,-0.122,0.004 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.343,0.171,0.514,-0.071,-0.183,0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.028,-0.076,0.017 +Toto-1.0,t0-beta,0.486,0.314,0.657,-0.041,-0.096,0.001 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.686,0.543,0.857,-0.028,-0.106,0.029 Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.02,-0.022,0.056 @@ -96,7 +114,6 @@ Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.013,-0.018,0.041 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.03,-0.003,0.065 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.686,0.542,0.829,0.017,-0.034,0.056 Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.686,0.514,0.829,0.032,-0.002,0.065 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.714,0.543,0.857,0.056,0.019,0.089 Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.055,-0.046,0.14 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.052,0.007,0.093 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.098,0.044,0.149 @@ -106,6 +123,7 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.024,-0.075,0.033 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.057,0.343,-0.026,-0.072,0.024 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.057,0.343,-0.042,-0.084,0.002 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.229,0.086,0.371,0.001,-0.05,0.06 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.314,0.171,0.458,-0.012,-0.04,0.018 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.143,0.457,0.028,-0.03,0.096 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.047,-0.005,0.122 @@ -113,7 +131,6 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.04,-0.01,0.106 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.629,0.485,0.771,0.057,0.003,0.132 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.044,-0.007,0.096 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.059,0.015,0.119 -Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.083,0.035,0.153 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.081,0.018,0.138 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.078,0.017,0.149 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.743,0.971,0.123,0.062,0.192 @@ -123,6 +140,7 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.074,-0.125,-0.031 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.076,-0.141,-0.031 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.093,-0.208,-0.032 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.286,0.143,0.429,-0.048,-0.087,-0.018 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.062,-0.127,-0.017 TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.02,-0.06,0.021 TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.049,-0.139,0.005 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -130,7 +148,6 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-4m,0.457,0.286,0.629,-0.007,-0.031,0.016 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.01,-0.017,0.039 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.629,0.457,0.8,-0.003,-0.054,0.035 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.686,0.543,0.857,0.013,-0.032,0.044 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.037,0.006,0.063 TiRex-2,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.036,-0.071,0.121 TiRex-2,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.714,0.943,0.033,-0.017,0.075 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.714,0.971,0.079,0.032,0.124 @@ -140,6 +157,7 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.066,-0.111,-0.026 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.068,-0.122,-0.025 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.085,-0.191,-0.018 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.041,-0.068,-0.013 +Toto-2.0-4m,t0-beta,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.055,-0.109,-0.015 Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.013,-0.043,0.017 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.042,-0.119,0.01 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex-2,0.543,0.371,0.714,0.007,-0.016,0.03 @@ -147,7 +165,6 @@ Toto-2.0-4m,Toto-2.0-4m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-4m,TiRex,0.629,0.457,0.8,0.018,-0.016,0.048 Toto-2.0-4m,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.004,-0.047,0.042 Toto-2.0-4m,TS-ICL,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.02,-0.015,0.049 -Toto-2.0-4m,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.857,0.044,0.011,0.074 Toto-2.0-4m,FlowState,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.043,-0.059,0.127 Toto-2.0-4m,Moirai-2.0,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.04,-0.012,0.081 Toto-2.0-4m,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.657,0.914,0.086,0.028,0.137 @@ -157,6 +174,7 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.085,-0.16,-0.022 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.088,-0.165,-0.021 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.104,-0.229,-0.029 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.059,-0.112,-0.01 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.371,0.229,0.515,-0.073,-0.141,-0.025 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.031,-0.069,0.003 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.371,0.229,0.515,-0.06,-0.153,-0.003 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.01,-0.04,0.017 @@ -164,7 +182,6 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-4m,0.371,0.2,0.543,-0.018,-0.051,0.016 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.4,0.743,-0.013,-0.054,0.021 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.002,-0.035,0.033 -TiRex,citras-fm,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.027,0.003,0.048 TiRex,FlowState,0.657,0.514,0.8,0.026,-0.08,0.109 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.743,0.6,0.886,0.022,-0.007,0.047 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.829,0.686,0.943,0.07,0.035,0.109 @@ -174,6 +191,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.071,-0.122,-0.015 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.073,-0.131,-0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.09,-0.174,-0.03 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.045,-0.086,0.001 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.257,0.143,0.4,-0.059,-0.101,-0.012 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.017,-0.059,0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.046,-0.106,0.007 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.371,0.2,0.543,0.003,-0.036,0.051 @@ -181,7 +199,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-4m,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.004,-0.044,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.429,0.257,0.6,0.013,-0.021,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.629,0.457,0.771,0.016,-0.026,0.055 -TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.6,0.429,0.771,0.04,-0.001,0.086 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.629,0.471,0.786,0.039,-0.028,0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.686,0.529,0.814,0.035,-0.001,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.9,0.082,0.047,0.121 @@ -191,6 +208,7 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.088,-0.148,-0.02 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.09,-0.159,-0.021 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.107,-0.223,-0.031 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.062,-0.109,-0.006 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.076,-0.124,-0.039 TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.486,-0.034,-0.069,0.002 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.063,-0.136,-0.015 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.314,0.143,0.457,-0.013,-0.046,0.031 @@ -198,33 +216,16 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-4m,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.02,-0.052,0.015 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.002,-0.034,0.034 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.371,0.229,0.543,-0.016,-0.058,0.025 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.686,0.543,0.829,0.025,-0.003,0.052 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.6,0.457,0.743,0.023,-0.076,0.099 TS-ICL,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.457,0.771,0.02,-0.016,0.052 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.771,0.629,0.886,0.068,0.024,0.11 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.575,0.489,0.652 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.122,-0.207,-0.051 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.116,-0.186,-0.045 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.118,-0.196,-0.047 -citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.135,-0.267,-0.051 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.089,-0.14,-0.033 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.143,0.457,-0.06,-0.098,-0.019 -citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.09,-0.18,-0.036 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.039,-0.067,-0.006 -citras-fm,Toto-2.0-4m,0.314,0.143,0.457,-0.046,-0.079,-0.011 -citras-fm,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.028,-0.051,-0.003 -citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.229,0.571,-0.042,-0.094,0.001 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.025,-0.055,0.003 -citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,FlowState,0.629,0.457,0.772,-0.002,-0.111,0.082 -citras-fm,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.257,0.6,-0.005,-0.038,0.024 -citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.743,0.571,0.886,0.044,0.005,0.079 -citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.971,0.914,1.0,0.564,0.474,0.641 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.12,-0.218,-0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.229,0.086,0.372,-0.114,-0.224,-0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.116,-0.219,-0.018 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.133,-0.205,-0.063 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.087,-0.19,0.008 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.102,-0.181,-0.019 FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.314,0.171,0.457,-0.058,-0.163,0.044 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.037,-0.138,0.067 @@ -232,7 +233,6 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-4m,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.045,-0.146,0.056 FlowState,TiRex,0.343,0.2,0.486,-0.026,-0.123,0.074 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.371,0.214,0.529,-0.04,-0.11,0.028 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.4,0.257,0.543,-0.024,-0.11,0.071 -FlowState,citras-fm,0.371,0.228,0.543,0.002,-0.089,0.1 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.457,0.3,0.614,-0.003,-0.091,0.091 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.629,0.471,0.786,0.045,-0.016,0.127 @@ -242,6 +242,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.11,-0.197,-0.026 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.113,-0.202,-0.027 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-3,0.114,0.029,0.229,-0.13,-0.257,-0.037 Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.084,-0.149,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,t0-beta,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.098,-0.164,-0.044 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.055,-0.102,-0.007 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.085,-0.175,-0.018 Moirai-2.0,TiRex-2,0.171,0.057,0.286,-0.034,-0.081,0.017 @@ -249,7 +250,6 @@ Moirai-2.0,Toto-2.0-4m,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.041,-0.088,0.012 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.257,0.114,0.4,-0.023,-0.049,0.007 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.314,0.186,0.471,-0.037,-0.079,0.001 Moirai-2.0,TS-ICL,0.4,0.229,0.543,-0.021,-0.055,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,citras-fm,0.571,0.4,0.743,0.005,-0.025,0.036 Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.543,0.386,0.7,0.003,-0.1,0.084 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.671,0.543,0.8,0.048,0.019,0.085 @@ -259,6 +259,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.167,-0.256,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.169,-0.267,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.086,0.0,0.2,-0.187,-0.326,-0.096 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.139,-0.214,-0.066 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.057,0.0,0.143,-0.154,-0.227,-0.089 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.108,-0.175,-0.046 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.143,0.029,0.257,-0.14,-0.237,-0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.143,0.029,0.286,-0.086,-0.142,-0.033 @@ -266,7 +267,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-4m,0.2,0.086,0.343,-0.094,-0.159,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.171,0.057,0.314,-0.075,-0.122,-0.037 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.1,0.371,-0.09,-0.138,-0.049 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.229,0.114,0.371,-0.072,-0.124,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.257,0.114,0.429,-0.046,-0.086,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.371,0.214,0.529,-0.048,-0.145,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.329,0.2,0.457,-0.051,-0.093,-0.02 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -276,6 +276,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.559,-2.195,-1.085 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.564,-2.207,-1.09 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.603,-2.267,-1.138 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.497,-2.106,-1.046 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.53,-2.125,-1.087 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.43,-1.968,-1.008 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.5,-2.081,-1.063 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.382,-1.91,-0.982 @@ -283,7 +284,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-4m,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.399,-1.95,-0.976 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.357,-1.845,-0.976 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.389,-1.909,-0.998 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.352,-1.877,-0.956 -Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.029,0.0,0.086,-1.293,-1.788,-0.902 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.297,-1.82,-0.94 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.304,-1.774,-0.943 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.193,-1.621,-0.864 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv index c55fe15de71e7945b44c113ee767771318b7de15..f40431a813490b2edd4c27f1687adffe896243dc 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,83.33333333333334,29.976756891078736,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,80.52083333333333,27.99390713883231,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.52083333333334,26.7317219556384,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,74.47916666666666,26.534681339191103,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,73.02083333333333,26.288323340337783,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,71.77083333333333,26.313790788283832,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.3125,25.71132197130257,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,68.85416666666667,26.27899613370557,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,64.79166666666667,22.090684936518613,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,64.47916666666667,22.563323248242327,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,61.77083333333333,24.3703980848735,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,58.54166666666667,23.264820356639703,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,55.00000000000001,22.971187048045326,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,53.75,22.202493106518684,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.208333333333336,22.107452063429612,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.010416666666664,20.7663634347118,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,47.91666666666667,21.607166213549956,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,45.989583333333336,20.291476627842265,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.177083333333336,13.4680243890007,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -CatBoost,42.291666666666664,16.466986315536523,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,41.354166666666664,15.511460150461742,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,40.729166666666664,18.370018530095255,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -TFT,37.34375,16.528467051420602,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.03125,11.681251245201373,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -AutoETS,35.625,6.371835454547458,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,34.11458333333333,16.846504531563646,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -PatchTST,27.395833333333336,13.144855820742507,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.958333333333336,5.9153801345410155,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.083333333333332,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.875,-41.376329526852395,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.75,-39.61909492922238,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,83.16532258064517,29.976756891078736,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.73790322580645,27.99390713883231,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,75.1008064516129,26.7317219556384,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,73.99193548387096,26.534681339191103,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,72.47983870967742,26.288323340337783,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,71.27016129032258,26.313790788283832,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.75806451612904,25.71132197130257,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,68.6491935483871,26.793532904719473,0.0,0.3459328546459215,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.94354838709677,26.27899613370557,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,64.01209677419355,22.090684936518613,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,63.70967741935484,22.563323248242327,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,61.18951612903226,24.3703980848735,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,57.45967741935484,23.264820356639703,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,54.233870967741936,22.971187048045326,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,53.125,22.202493106518684,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,49.29435483870967,22.107452063429612,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,48.4375,20.7663634347118,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,47.37903225806452,21.607166213549956,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,45.211693548387096,20.291476627842265,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.792338709677416,13.4680243890007,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +CatBoost,41.53225806451613,16.466986315536523,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,40.725806451612904,15.511460150461742,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,39.818548387096776,18.370018530095255,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.64314516129033,11.681251245201373,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +TFT,36.64314516129033,16.528467051420602,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,35.38306451612903,6.371835454547458,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,33.31653225806452,16.846504531563646,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +PatchTST,26.61290322580645,13.144855820742507,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.487903225806452,5.9153801345410155,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.633064516129032,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,11.693548387096774,-41.376329526852395,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.568548387096774,-39.61909492922238,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv index d95aca90c9057b98c7c7600f308c91b75cb7a08f..3ae82db86d90361852c77d09a3cdf912365b1796 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,85.72916666666667,38.469732189921636,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,83.02083333333333,37.0339598769268,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,78.125,35.379913871741486,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,78.02083333333333,35.75175890481369,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.875,35.627348248727685,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,75.625,35.286196090295455,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.95833333333334,35.01369078500964,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.04166666666667,34.92408244319366,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,65.9375,33.843246413499806,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,65.52083333333333,32.682760506952434,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,62.083333333333336,30.464806712356275,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,59.27083333333333,32.136773681145826,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.64583333333333,32.38738295255295,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,56.875,31.310808520029475,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.645833333333336,31.530105413500053,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.65625000000001,30.12432270033647,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,51.87500000000001,31.209124473024797,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.17708333333333,28.97697911952871,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.510416666666664,16.567011147038457,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -TFT,40.0,23.706570356059153,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,38.489583333333336,18.030570877700292,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,37.5,23.555355495413068,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -AutoETS,32.395833333333336,-36.16184103810849,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -Sundial-Base,31.666666666666664,22.91486952517109,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,31.302083333333336,20.15355435692837,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,22.291666666666668,9.552459340446495,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,20.9375,8.517838561728631,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.729166666666668,-4.510352730031664,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.03125,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.625,-74.23187160698073,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.4375,-74.54960384295045,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.48387096774194,38.469732189921636,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.45967741935483,37.0339598769268,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,77.31854838709677,35.75175890481369,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,77.21774193548387,35.379913871741486,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,76.31048387096774,35.627348248727685,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,75.0,35.286196090295455,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,73.08467741935483,35.01369078500964,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,72.98387096774194,35.81213663275491,0.0,0.3459328546459215,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.06048387096774,34.92408244319366,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,65.12096774193549,33.843246413499806,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,64.21370967741935,32.682760506952434,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,61.08870967741935,30.464806712356275,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,57.96370967741935,32.136773681145826,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.66129032258065,32.38738295255295,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,56.1491935483871,31.310808520029475,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,52.52016129032258,31.530105413500053,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.86491935483871,30.12432270033647,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,51.00806451612904,31.209124473024797,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,47.127016129032256,28.97697911952871,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.078629032258064,16.567011147038457,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +TFT,39.01209677419355,23.706570356059153,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.953629032258064,18.030570877700292,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,36.693548387096776,23.555355495413068,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +AutoETS,31.955645161290324,-36.16184103810849,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +Sundial-Base,30.846774193548388,22.91486952517109,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,30.29233870967742,20.15355435692837,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,21.673387096774192,9.552459340446495,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.362903225806452,-4.510352730031664,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,20.362903225806452,8.517838561728631,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.48185483870968,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.483870967741936,-74.23187160698073,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.16532258064516,-74.54960384295045,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 8aeffff2f1d2c3356d629d16354148963294f7bb..abe79b32d72c29ec8ce814013a375975a1abfb78 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,85.52083333333333,34.3848421490953,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,78.54166666666667,31.574899293883963,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.4375,30.224981323893342,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,75.20833333333333,29.905280904300813,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,74.0625,30.83324417879393,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,73.22916666666667,29.714765414268427,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,70.83333333333334,29.650904955748313,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.64583333333333,29.22524679854486,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,66.14583333333334,27.214867518163455,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,65.10416666666666,30.09959363932445,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,63.125,28.604848057546317,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,57.91666666666667,28.084851702342426,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,57.1875,24.95874087832228,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.08333333333333,28.793683286196813,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.66666666666667,25.577740272044245,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.67708333333333,25.40621225271993,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,46.979166666666664,24.679707504856008,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.40625,23.058536180274736,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.46875,17.727727626633715,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -Sundial-Base,39.791666666666664,20.448180173908913,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,38.02083333333333,18.76505901842784,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,37.916666666666664,19.037255796555574,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -TFT,36.822916666666664,18.373603116607807,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.40625,15.505959555026772,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -AutoETS,33.75,2.3580411343619434,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,30.572916666666668,17.802230426242115,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -PatchTST,27.291666666666664,14.865163123427871,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.020833333333332,10.33674396649873,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.979166666666668,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.395833333333334,-19.83598592543119,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.791666666666666,-21.496080116325867,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,85.18145161290323,34.3848421490953,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,77.92338709677419,31.574899293883963,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,77.92338709677419,30.224981323893342,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,74.69758064516128,29.905280904300813,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,73.48790322580645,30.83324417879393,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,72.58064516129032,29.714765414268427,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,69.95967741935483,29.650904955748313,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,69.65725806451613,29.87870679126836,0.0,0.3459328546459215,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.04435483870968,29.22524679854486,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,65.22177419354838,27.214867518163455,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,64.21370967741935,30.09959363932445,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,62.701612903225815,28.604848057546317,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,56.95564516129033,28.084851702342426,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.3508064516129,28.793683286196813,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,56.1491935483871,24.95874087832228,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.90725806451613,25.577740272044245,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.747983870967744,25.40621225271993,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,46.068548387096776,24.679707504856008,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,45.413306451612904,23.058536180274736,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,40.07056451612903,17.727727626633715,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +Sundial-Base,38.91129032258064,20.448180173908913,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,37.399193548387096,18.76505901842784,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,37.29838709677419,19.037255796555574,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +TFT,36.23991935483871,18.373603116607807,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.038306451612904,15.505959555026772,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +AutoETS,33.46774193548387,2.3580411343619434,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,29.788306451612907,17.802230426242115,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +PatchTST,26.61290322580645,14.865163123427871,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,22.58064516129032,10.33674396649873,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.633064516129032,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.19758064516129,-19.83598592543119,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.576612903225806,-21.496080116325867,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 0146a1c327cd0ce4b55722e766ec76f203f99bcb..5bc02fa47220e6e2f51ec1dfcde1d0270e2f844a 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,32 +1,33 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-3,86.875,42.87749970557838,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,81.97916666666667,40.84628843868441,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.95833333333333,39.45397727376795,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,78.4375,39.19637123849717,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,76.66666666666667,40.103157974569356,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-313m,74.375,38.92296866055266,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,71.66666666666667,38.74983094426454,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.35416666666666,38.69064615813591,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS-3,68.54166666666667,37.13611033754862,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-22m,66.875,38.14902775423167,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,63.020833333333336,38.4407958273131,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,61.04166666666667,37.15125331658222,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.583333333333336,37.558463928192396,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,58.54166666666667,34.520061529863874,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,52.604166666666664,35.31379800866229,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,52.23958333333333,34.89047194343375,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-4m,50.31250000000001,34.8855731220096,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,48.17708333333333,32.600897327995895,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 -TFT,40.208333333333336,26.128622094569508,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.15625,19.950951239142245,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 -AutoARIMA,38.177083333333336,21.949127392355493,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 -DeepAR,32.8125,24.48504899458338,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 -AutoETS,32.083333333333336,-38.32028900670734,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 -Sundial-Base,30.729166666666668,25.64948000353725,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 -PatchTST,29.947916666666668,22.348910021170553,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 -CatBoost,22.916666666666664,12.786321977838044,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 -LightGBM,22.708333333333332,13.078551918444692,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,22.1875,3.0725928218514276,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,17.34375,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 -Drift,11.041666666666666,-53.83576239004797,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 -Naive,8.4375,-57.89006471235225,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-3,86.59274193548387,42.87749970557838,0.0,0.9897434715470204,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,81.25,40.84628843868441,0.0,0.21276834204301076,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,78.0241935483871,39.45397727376795,0.0,5.326006857917275,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-1B,77.52016129032258,39.19637123849717,0.0,2.426733271357678,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,75.80645161290323,40.103157974569356,0.0,0.11399175149975034,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,73.68951612903226,38.92296866055266,0.0,1.0634686123833972,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,73.58870967741935,39.33136619885852,0.0,0.3459328546459215,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.96774193548387,38.74983094426454,0.0,0.19425185975,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.26209677419355,38.69064615813591,0.0,0.559727848226858,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,67.33870967741935,37.13611033754862,0.0,215.38034239575552,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-22m,66.22983870967742,38.14902775423167,0.0,0.23846756001861044,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,62.19758064516129,38.4407958273131,0.0,1.039144312046837,0.0,0.0 +citras-fm,60.181451612903224,37.15125331658222,0.0,0.25574958745110477,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.46774193548387,37.558463928192396,0.0,64.98920974493144,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,57.358870967741936,34.520061529863874,0.0,1.1796203528164964,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.81451612903226,35.31379800866229,0.0,10.730363198083333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,51.05846774193549,34.89047194343375,0.0,0.20924117567741934,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-4m,49.193548387096776,34.8855731220096,0.0,0.19166024198924733,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,46.92540322580645,32.600897327995895,0.0,0.25535015816666673,0.34375,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,39.667338709677416,19.950951239142245,0.0,106.14506022419354,0.0,6.25 +TFT,39.314516129032256,26.128622094569508,281.18259558108974,0.24915869446443342,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.65120967741936,21.949127392355493,0.0,13.951509990514431,0.0,6.25 +DeepAR,31.85483870967742,24.48504899458338,467.93394356724366,0.5208180233333334,0.0,3.125 +AutoETS,31.653225806451612,-38.32028900670734,0.0,2.457903827995606,0.0,6.25 +Sundial-Base,29.939516129032256,25.64948000353725,0.0,7.954820643464173,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,29.18346774193548,22.348910021170553,288.3942907752257,0.3001826822611663,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,22.278225806451612,12.786321977838044,9.475867548113083,0.08841646971432476,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,22.076612903225808,13.078551918444692,0.6467891415693146,0.07631481828775127,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,21.774193548387096,3.0725928218514276,0.0,1.7630840095781735,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.985887096774192,0.0,0.0,0.23815382831046544,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.887096774193548,-53.83576239004797,0.0,0.217463340720339,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.266129032258064,-57.89006471235225,0.0,0.20769629459577615,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv index 2232c25bc3e6a4b3706331f28851b0c13dafae99..04b6e0a509f185d6796da7ea18d6f9b6ec3a51a3 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -3,8 +3,9 @@ TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.028,0.005,0.051 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.044,0.017,0.074 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.047,0.02,0.075 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.05,0.023,0.083 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.05,0.025,0.077 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.05,0.023,0.083 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.043,0.023,0.067 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.057,0.034,0.083 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.05,0.027,0.075 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.101,0.028,0.197 @@ -13,15 +14,15 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.074,0.046,0.105 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.087,0.056,0.121 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.091,0.044,0.158 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.1,0.046,0.168 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.101,0.07,0.137 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.116,0.074,0.164 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.259,0.342 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.719,0.017,-0.014,0.049 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.02,-0.008,0.05 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.023,-0.005,0.058 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.023,-0.005,0.053 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.023,-0.005,0.058 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.562,0.375,0.72,0.016,-0.005,0.038 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.031,0.01,0.054 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.023,0.001,0.046 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.076,0.004,0.172 @@ -30,15 +31,15 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.048,0.019,0.081 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.062,0.027,0.097 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.065,0.025,0.127 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.074,0.03,0.137 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.076,0.041,0.114 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.091,0.051,0.136 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.239,0.322 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.046,-0.079,-0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.469,0.281,0.625,-0.018,-0.051,0.014 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.003,-0.005,0.012 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.027,0.042 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.006,-0.003,0.016 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.027,0.042 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.625,0.469,0.781,-0.001,-0.036,0.026 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.014,-0.019,0.045 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.027,0.034 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.06,-0.029,0.176 @@ -47,15 +48,15 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.031,0.012,0.052 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.045,0.017,0.074 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.049,-0.015,0.125 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.058,-0.01,0.142 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.059,0.025,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.075,0.018,0.137 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.267,0.223,0.311 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.049,-0.081,-0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.02,-0.052,0.008 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.003,-0.012,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.003,-0.028,0.036 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.003,-0.007,0.012 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.003,-0.028,0.036 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.594,0.437,0.75,-0.004,-0.037,0.023 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.594,0.438,0.751,0.011,-0.021,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.437,0.75,0.003,-0.029,0.031 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.057,-0.029,0.17 @@ -64,32 +65,15 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.781,0.625,0.907,0.029,0.011,0.045 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.043,0.014,0.07 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.046,-0.012,0.117 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.056,-0.01,0.132 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.057,0.023,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.073,0.018,0.132 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.265,0.222,0.308 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.053,-0.09,-0.024 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.024,-0.062,0.005 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.044,0.027 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.003,-0.037,0.027 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.0,-0.035,0.029 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.008,-0.015,0.026 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.0,-0.034,0.027 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.054,-0.01,0.145 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.048,0.002,0.106 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.025,-0.001,0.053 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.039,-0.002,0.081 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.043,-0.004,0.1 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.053,-0.004,0.11 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.054,0.015,0.09 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.027,0.113 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.875,1.0,0.263,0.213,0.309 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.052,-0.083,-0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.023,-0.056,0.005 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.006,-0.016,0.003 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.003,-0.012,0.007 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.0,-0.03,0.033 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.0,-0.03,0.033 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.007,-0.039,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.008,-0.022,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.0,-0.033,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.054,-0.031,0.165 @@ -98,15 +82,49 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.026,0.01,0.042 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.04,0.012,0.069 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.043,-0.015,0.116 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.876,0.053,-0.013,0.131 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.054,0.02,0.092 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.014,0.129 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.263,0.22,0.307 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.053,-0.09,-0.024 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.024,-0.062,0.005 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.044,0.027 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.003,-0.037,0.027 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.0,-0.035,0.029 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.007,-0.055,0.031 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.008,-0.015,0.026 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.0,-0.034,0.027 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.054,-0.01,0.145 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.048,0.002,0.106 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.025,-0.001,0.053 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.039,-0.002,0.081 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.043,-0.004,0.1 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.053,-0.004,0.11 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.027,0.113 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.875,1.0,0.263,0.213,0.309 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.045,-0.072,-0.023 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.438,0.28,0.625,-0.017,-0.039,0.005 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.531,0.001,-0.027,0.035 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.563,0.004,-0.024,0.035 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.007,-0.021,0.038 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.007,-0.032,0.052 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.015,-0.013,0.046 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.406,0.781,0.007,-0.017,0.033 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.06,-0.019,0.166 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.055,0.006,0.126 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.032,0.0,0.069 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.046,0.019,0.073 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.05,0.001,0.12 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.059,0.008,0.129 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.076,0.028,0.13 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.268,0.227,0.309 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.061,-0.091,-0.035 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.032,-0.057,-0.01 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.014,-0.047,0.019 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.249,0.562,-0.011,-0.041,0.02 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.008,-0.027,0.014 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.008,-0.037,0.022 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.008,-0.027,0.014 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.015,-0.048,0.013 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.008,-0.029,0.01 TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.046,-0.019,0.141 @@ -115,15 +133,15 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.018,-0.01,0.049 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.032,-0.001,0.064 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.036,-0.009,0.098 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.045,-0.004,0.105 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.046,0.014,0.081 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.062,0.021,0.106 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.215,0.302 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.053,-0.081,-0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.036,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.563,-0.003,-0.032,0.028 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.0,-0.028,0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.0,-0.028,0.032 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.0,-0.028,0.033 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.406,0.219,0.594,-0.007,-0.034,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.008,-0.01,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.054,-0.02,0.161 @@ -132,15 +150,15 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.406,0.75,0.025,-0.009,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.039,0.01,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.043,-0.008,0.115 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.052,-0.0,0.123 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.054,0.016,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.07,0.023,0.12 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.263,0.219,0.308 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.113,-0.245,-0.029 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.082,-0.208,-0.004 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.063,-0.213,0.028 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.06,-0.205,0.028 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.057,-0.17,0.01 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.057,-0.197,0.03 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.057,-0.17,0.01 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.064,-0.199,0.019 FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.049,-0.164,0.018 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.057,-0.192,0.02 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -149,15 +167,15 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.03,-0.159,0.048 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.015,-0.158,0.071 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.438,0.781,-0.011,-0.07,0.031 FlowState,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,-0.001,-0.058,0.048 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,-0.0,-0.124,0.082 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.017,-0.07,0.08 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.221,0.111,0.294 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.312,0.156,0.5,-0.106,-0.196,-0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.075,-0.153,-0.026 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.057,-0.154,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.054,-0.143,0.006 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.051,-0.118,-0.002 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.595,-0.051,-0.143,0.009 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.051,-0.118,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.058,-0.144,-0.006 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.042,-0.113,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.05,-0.132,-0.003 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.006,-0.041,0.059 @@ -166,15 +184,15 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.024,-0.105,0.033 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,-0.009,-0.097,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.406,0.75,-0.005,-0.031,0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.005,-0.026,0.033 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.782,0.006,-0.078,0.065 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.031,0.074 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.226,0.148,0.281 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.08,-0.117,-0.048 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.05,-0.088,-0.019 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.032,-0.055,-0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.093,0.375,-0.029,-0.048,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.026,-0.056,0.001 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.026,-0.043,-0.011 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.026,-0.056,0.001 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.033,-0.074,-0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.018,-0.051,0.01 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.25,0.594,-0.026,-0.065,0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.029,-0.051,0.137 @@ -183,15 +201,15 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.014,-0.02,0.052 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.018,-0.039,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.028,-0.037,0.102 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.029,-0.004,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.045,-0.01,0.104 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.244,0.198,0.288 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.096,-0.137,-0.059 TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.066,-0.107,-0.027 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.047,-0.08,-0.017 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.045,-0.076,-0.015 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.041,-0.088,0.002 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.041,-0.074,-0.013 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.041,-0.088,0.002 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.048,-0.079,-0.02 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.033,-0.069,0.001 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.041,-0.075,-0.01 TS-ICL,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.015,-0.077,0.136 @@ -200,15 +218,15 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.015,-0.054,0.019 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.004,-0.061,0.086 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.014,-0.049,0.095 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.015,-0.021,0.055 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.032,-0.025,0.092 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.233,0.182,0.283 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.1,-0.188,-0.046 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.07,-0.146,-0.025 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.051,-0.143,0.015 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.049,-0.133,0.012 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.045,-0.111,0.004 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.045,-0.131,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.045,-0.111,0.004 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.052,-0.137,-0.001 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.037,-0.109,0.009 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.045,-0.13,0.008 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.406,0.219,0.562,0.011,-0.032,0.065 @@ -217,15 +235,15 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.019,-0.093,0.037 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.004,-0.094,0.058 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.01,-0.021,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.011,-0.074,0.074 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.343,0.688,0.028,-0.025,0.081 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.23,0.155,0.283 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.111,-0.202,-0.049 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.08,-0.159,-0.031 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.062,-0.166,0.01 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.059,-0.152,0.01 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.055,-0.124,0.004 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.124,0.406,-0.056,-0.15,0.013 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.055,-0.124,0.004 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.063,-0.148,-0.008 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.047,-0.117,0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.055,-0.141,0.0 citras-fm,FlowState,0.344,0.188,0.5,0.001,-0.05,0.055 @@ -234,32 +252,15 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.029,-0.114,0.036 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.014,-0.105,0.047 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.01,-0.044,0.021 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.468,0.781,0.001,-0.086,0.063 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.018,-0.029,0.062 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.222,0.138,0.289 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.112,-0.159,-0.075 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.082,-0.129,-0.043 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.063,-0.106,-0.026 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.06,-0.107,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.057,-0.099,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.057,-0.101,-0.02 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.049,-0.089,-0.014 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.057,-0.103,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.281,0.125,0.438,0.0,-0.09,0.11 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.375,0.218,0.531,-0.006,-0.07,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.03,-0.07,0.004 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.015,-0.058,0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.011,-0.08,0.069 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.375,0.219,0.532,-0.001,-0.067,0.08 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.469,0.281,0.656,0.017,-0.041,0.077 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.221,0.174,0.269 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.132,-0.195,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.1,-0.158,-0.054 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.081,-0.159,-0.018 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.079,-0.152,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.148,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.028 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.082,-0.15,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.067,-0.119,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.075,-0.136,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.017,-0.086,0.065 @@ -268,15 +269,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.048,-0.116,0.01 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.033,-0.101,0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.312,0.657,-0.029,-0.088,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.018,-0.066,0.029 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.531,0.344,0.719,-0.017,-0.083,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.208,0.137,0.269 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.428,-0.519,-0.35 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.476,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.365,-0.452,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.361,-0.446,-0.285 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.031,0.0,0.125,-0.357,-0.448,-0.271 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.357,-0.444,-0.281 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.031,0.0,0.125,-0.357,-0.448,-0.271 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.366,-0.447,-0.293 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.433,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.356,-0.445,-0.28 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.284,-0.416,-0.124 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.322,-0.404,-0.246 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.303,-0.394,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.298,-0.395,-0.183 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.285,-0.407,-0.16 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.284,-0.367,-0.21 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.262,-0.369,-0.159 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv index fc270361eb6fee4810c05a57da14692fde5ca2b2..1bc7655da95c08da572b17709aa98bf9a62b733b 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,289 +2,289 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TimesFM-3,TimesFM-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.023,0.002,0.044 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.042,0.015,0.071 -TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.048,0.021,0.082 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.044,0.02,0.072 +TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.048,0.021,0.082 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.625,0.469,0.812,0.049,0.024,0.076 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.041,0.024,0.06 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.75,0.624,0.906,0.053,0.031,0.077 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.054,0.032,0.078 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.086,0.047,0.129 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.043,0.1 TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.115,0.042,0.208 -TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.844,0.718,0.969,0.093,0.064,0.126 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.09,0.054,0.134 +TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.844,0.718,0.969,0.093,0.064,0.126 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.104,0.052,0.168 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.101,0.072,0.137 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.119,0.078,0.169 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.337,0.43 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.023,-0.046,-0.002 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.594,0.437,0.75,0.02,-0.011,0.05 -Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.026,-0.001,0.059 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.022,-0.005,0.051 +Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.026,-0.001,0.059 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.594,0.406,0.781,0.027,-0.0,0.056 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.019,-0.002,0.04 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.031,0.011,0.054 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.656,0.499,0.812,0.032,0.01,0.054 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.781,0.625,0.938,0.065,0.031,0.101 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.048,0.021,0.079 Chronos-2,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.094,0.024,0.189 -Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.072,0.038,0.107 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.069,0.039,0.105 +Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.072,0.038,0.107 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.083,0.039,0.14 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.08,0.047,0.117 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.099,0.058,0.144 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.327,0.414 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.044,-0.077,-0.016 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.406,0.25,0.563,-0.02,-0.052,0.011 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.469,0.281,0.625,0.006,-0.028,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.002,-0.006,0.011 +Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.469,0.281,0.625,0.006,-0.028,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.007,-0.003,0.018 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.001,-0.033,0.024 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.011,-0.021,0.043 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.013,-0.021,0.041 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.046,-0.002,0.102 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.029,0.01,0.049 Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.076,-0.01,0.188 -Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.053,0.023,0.083 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.05,-0.0,0.106 +Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.053,0.023,0.083 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.812,0.687,0.938,0.065,-0.003,0.145 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.062,0.029,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.081,0.019,0.145 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.358,0.303,0.406 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.05,-0.089,-0.021 -TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.026,-0.063,0.001 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.719,-0.006,-0.046,0.028 -TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.312,0.657,-0.004,-0.039,0.026 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.001,-0.037,0.035 -TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.016,0.023 -TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.007,-0.029,0.037 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.04,-0.001,0.079 -TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.004,0.05 -TiRex-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.071,0.007,0.158 -TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.048,0.005,0.089 -TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.044,0.004,0.08 -TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.059,0.005,0.114 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.056,0.022,0.089 -TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.075,0.032,0.116 -TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.305,0.399 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.046,-0.077,-0.02 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.022,-0.054,0.005 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.002,-0.011,0.006 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.343,0.688,0.004,-0.027,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.343,0.688,0.004,-0.027,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.562,0.375,0.72,0.005,-0.004,0.015 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.594,0.437,0.781,-0.003,-0.033,0.021 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.009,-0.022,0.038 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.437,0.75,0.011,-0.021,0.04 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.044,-0.0,0.094 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.027,0.01,0.043 Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.074,-0.009,0.182 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.051,0.021,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.048,0.003,0.098 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.051,0.021,0.082 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.063,-0.003,0.136 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.06,0.027,0.097 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.079,0.022,0.139 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.356,0.303,0.402 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.05,-0.089,-0.021 +TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.026,-0.063,0.001 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.531,0.375,0.719,-0.006,-0.046,0.028 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.312,0.657,-0.004,-0.039,0.026 +TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.001,-0.037,0.035 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.007,-0.053,0.031 +TiRex-2,TiRex,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.006,-0.016,0.023 +TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.007,-0.029,0.037 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.04,-0.001,0.079 +TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.004,0.05 +TiRex-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.071,0.007,0.158 +TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.044,0.004,0.08 +TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.048,0.005,0.089 +TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.059,0.005,0.114 +TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.075,0.032,0.116 +TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.305,0.399 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.375,0.188,0.531,-0.052,-0.082,-0.025 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.406,0.219,0.594,-0.028,-0.059,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.007,-0.018,0.003 -Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.001,-0.036,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.28,0.625,-0.005,-0.015,0.004 +Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.001,-0.036,0.036 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.008,-0.039,0.018 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.004,-0.028,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.006,-0.029,0.034 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.039,-0.006,0.09 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.022,0.007,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.069,-0.013,0.177 -Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.046,0.015,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.043,-0.004,0.094 +Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.046,0.015,0.079 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.058,-0.009,0.133 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.055,0.02,0.091 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.074,0.014,0.135 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.353,0.3,0.401 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.043,-0.064,-0.024 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.019,-0.042,0.002 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.001,-0.025,0.032 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.219,0.563,0.003,-0.022,0.032 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.007,-0.032,0.05 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.008,-0.018,0.038 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.012,-0.014,0.043 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.406,0.781,0.014,-0.009,0.038 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.046,0.008,0.092 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.03,0.0,0.063 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.844,0.077,-0.001,0.18 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.051,0.013,0.097 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.054,0.028,0.079 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.066,0.013,0.135 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.081,0.034,0.135 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.31,0.403 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.094,0.376,-0.056,-0.084,-0.032 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.032,-0.057,-0.011 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.011,-0.045,0.021 -TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.024,0.016 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.01,-0.04,0.022 +TiRex,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.006,-0.024,0.016 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.004,-0.035,0.027 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.012,-0.045,0.014 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.001,-0.021,0.022 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.035,-0.001,0.072 TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.018,-0.009,0.047 TiRex,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.065,0.002,0.156 -TiRex,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.042,0.009,0.079 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.039,0.003,0.081 +TiRex,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.042,0.009,0.079 TiRex,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.054,0.004,0.113 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.051,0.021,0.083 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.07,0.027,0.113 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.303,0.394 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.058,-0.085,-0.033 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.501,-0.034,-0.057,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.013,-0.043,0.021 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.007,-0.038,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.563,-0.011,-0.041,0.021 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.007,-0.038,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.006,-0.035,0.028 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.406,0.219,0.594,-0.014,-0.039,0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.001,-0.023,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.033,-0.0,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.016,-0.018,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.064,-0.011,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.5,0.844,0.041,0.012,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.038,-0.002,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.5,0.844,0.041,0.012,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.053,0.001,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.05,0.016,0.088 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.069,0.022,0.118 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.349,0.302,0.398 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.094,-0.148,-0.05 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.219,0.062,0.375,-0.069,-0.112,-0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.048,-0.114,0.002 -TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.042,-0.086,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.046,-0.104,0.0 +TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.042,-0.086,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.04,-0.098,0.006 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.049,-0.102,-0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.036,-0.078,0.001 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.034,-0.08,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.018,-0.069,0.029 TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.032,-0.028,0.106 -TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.008,-0.051,0.055 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.004,-0.023,0.032 +TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.008,-0.051,0.055 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.02,-0.019,0.058 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.017,-0.042,0.068 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.037,-0.007,0.083 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.277,0.375 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.111,-0.045 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.051,-0.085,-0.021 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.03,-0.052,-0.011 -Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.024,-0.053,0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.028,-0.045,-0.01 +Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.024,-0.053,0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.022,-0.039,-0.007 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.031,-0.067,-0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.018,-0.049,0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.017,-0.056,0.017 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.017,-0.03,0.065 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.049,-0.027,0.151 -Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.025,-0.009,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.022,-0.024,0.068 +Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.025,-0.009,0.062 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.037,-0.027,0.108 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.034,0.004,0.066 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.053,-0.003,0.112 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.338,0.284,0.386 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.13,-0.263,-0.044 FlowState,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.104,-0.233,-0.024 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.082,-0.231,0.01 -FlowState,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.076,-0.187,-0.007 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.08,-0.222,0.009 +FlowState,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.076,-0.187,-0.007 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.075,-0.215,0.013 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.312,0.156,0.5,-0.083,-0.22,0.001 FlowState,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.07,-0.185,-0.002 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.069,-0.203,0.011 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.033,-0.119,0.027 FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.051,-0.178,0.026 FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -FlowState,TS-ICL,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.025,-0.163,0.065 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.438,0.75,-0.028,-0.114,0.028 +FlowState,TS-ICL,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.025,-0.163,0.065 FlowState,citras-fm,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.012,-0.078,0.042 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.812,-0.016,-0.139,0.067 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.005,-0.082,0.066 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.305,0.215,0.368 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.031,0.282,-0.103,-0.145,-0.068 -TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.078,-0.119,-0.039 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.056,-0.09,-0.024 -TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.05,-0.098,-0.005 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.054,-0.089,-0.022 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.049,-0.085,-0.015 -TS-ICL,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.044,-0.085,-0.009 -TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.5,-0.043,-0.076,-0.012 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.008,-0.058,0.049 -TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.026,-0.066,0.009 -TS-ICL,FlowState,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.024,-0.07,0.14 -TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.004,-0.057,0.057 -TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.012,-0.05,0.089 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.009,-0.026,0.044 -TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.029,-0.027,0.089 -TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.321,0.262,0.378 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.099,-0.154,-0.057 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.074,-0.118,-0.041 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.052,-0.119,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.046,-0.087,-0.004 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.05,-0.109,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.046,-0.087,-0.004 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.045,-0.104,0.004 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.053,-0.108,-0.013 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.04,-0.088,-0.003 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.039,-0.095,0.002 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.004,-0.033,0.023 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.022,-0.073,0.024 TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.406,0.25,0.562,0.028,-0.028,0.102 -TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.004,-0.06,0.054 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.004,-0.06,0.054 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.016,-0.025,0.055 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.281,0.656,0.013,-0.045,0.066 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.375,0.719,0.032,-0.011,0.08 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.875,1.0,0.324,0.275,0.369 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.031,0.282,-0.103,-0.145,-0.068 +TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.078,-0.119,-0.039 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.056,-0.09,-0.024 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.054,-0.089,-0.022 +TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.05,-0.098,-0.005 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.049,-0.085,-0.015 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.057,-0.086,-0.029 +TS-ICL,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.044,-0.085,-0.009 +TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.5,-0.043,-0.076,-0.012 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.008,-0.058,0.049 +TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.026,-0.066,0.009 +TS-ICL,FlowState,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.024,-0.07,0.14 +TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.004,-0.057,0.057 +TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.012,-0.05,0.089 +TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.029,-0.027,0.089 +TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.321,0.262,0.378 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.116,-0.201,-0.055 citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.091,-0.163,-0.04 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.313,-0.069,-0.17,0.003 -citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.063,-0.128,-0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.067,-0.157,0.003 +citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.063,-0.128,-0.005 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.061,-0.154,0.009 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.07,-0.156,-0.013 citras-fm,TiRex,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.057,-0.128,-0.004 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.056,-0.134,-0.001 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.02,-0.062,0.019 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.038,-0.121,0.026 citras-fm,FlowState,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.012,-0.044,0.072 -citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.012,-0.097,0.048 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.016,-0.059,0.024 +citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.012,-0.097,0.048 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.003,-0.085,0.059 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.017,-0.025,0.056 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.313,0.245,0.374 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.113,-0.158,-0.077 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.087,-0.133,-0.049 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.066,-0.107,-0.03 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.06,-0.098,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.064,-0.107,-0.027 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.058,-0.1,-0.02 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.054,-0.091,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.052,-0.096,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.017,-0.073,0.04 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.035,-0.07,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.188,0.531,0.015,-0.072,0.122 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.009,-0.046,0.025 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.719,-0.013,-0.071,0.043 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.003,-0.063,0.078 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.02,-0.038,0.079 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.315,0.26,0.365 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.136,-0.203,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.11,-0.169,-0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.088,-0.17,-0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.081,-0.131,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.085,-0.161,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.081,-0.131,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.08,-0.156,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.089,-0.156,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.075,-0.128,-0.028 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.074,-0.134,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.038,-0.09,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.056,-0.127,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.005,-0.071,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.03,-0.098,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.469,0.281,0.625,-0.033,-0.087,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.03,-0.098,0.027 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.017,-0.06,0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.021,-0.086,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.301,0.243,0.36 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.755,-0.509 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.706,-0.485 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.556,-0.683,-0.435 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-0.663,-0.439 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.553,-0.671,-0.435 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-0.663,-0.439 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.545,-0.669,-0.429 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.676,-0.449 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.649,-0.435 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.537,-0.66,-0.432 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.486,-0.601,-0.382 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.512,-0.629,-0.397 Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.438,-0.583,-0.274 -Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.474,-0.608,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.031,0.0,0.125,-0.479,-0.584,-0.38 +Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.474,-0.608,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.456,-0.598,-0.324 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.46,-0.576,-0.351 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.431,-0.562,-0.321 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv index e5c32ef9f1dbd0d7288f20550e6354465499dd0a..fb4e64351411d1b861a67ec4fc627bf285469fc5 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.041,0.004,0.087 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.064,0.024,0.112 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.066,0.03,0.11 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.051,0.018,0.088 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.064,0.03,0.111 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.067,0.034,0.114 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.073,0.04,0.113 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.099,0.05,0.146 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.081,0.048,0.115 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.079,0.047,0.109 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.126,0.072,0.191 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.088,0.043,0.139 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.118,0.083,0.158 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.12,0.078,0.167 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.284,0.401 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.063,-0.114,-0.023 @@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.02,-0.049,0.007 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.005,-0.003,0.012 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.007,-0.004,0.017 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.625,0.469,0.781,-0.009,-0.048,0.023 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.625,0.468,0.781,0.005,-0.029,0.035 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.008,-0.022,0.035 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.014,-0.011,0.037 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.5,0.844,0.041,-0.009,0.095 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.023,-0.007,0.048 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.02,-0.038,0.064 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.07,0.029,0.121 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.03,-0.015,0.069 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.062,0.027,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.065,0.015,0.109 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.302,0.236,0.361 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.043,-0.096,-0.004 @@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.344,0.657,0.024,-0.003,0.053 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.026,-0.001,0.054 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.011,-0.034,0.053 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.024,0.004,0.047 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.027,0.003,0.053 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.033,0.009,0.06 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.06,0.016,0.105 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.042,0.004,0.078 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.039,-0.013,0.076 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.088,0.047,0.137 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.049,0.022,0.078 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.081,0.043,0.123 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.083,0.049,0.122 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.316,0.255,0.374 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.068,-0.126,-0.025 @@ -56,6 +56,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.343,0.656,-0.024,-0.056,0.003 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.003,-0.009,0.013 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.594,0.437,0.751,-0.013,-0.057,0.02 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.0,-0.036,0.031 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.531,0.344,0.688,0.004,-0.029,0.033 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.01,-0.018,0.035 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS-3,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.037,-0.018,0.094 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-22m,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.018,-0.016,0.044 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.016,-0.049,0.063 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.066,0.026,0.118 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.025,-0.023,0.067 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.058,0.022,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.06,0.011,0.106 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.299,0.229,0.362 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.071,-0.123,-0.031 @@ -73,6 +73,7 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.027,-0.058,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.003,-0.013,0.009 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.562,0.406,0.75,-0.016,-0.056,0.018 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.002,-0.035,0.026 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.001,-0.034,0.027 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.007,-0.022,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.034,-0.017,0.086 @@ -81,7 +82,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.016,-0.012,0.038 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.013,-0.046,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.063,0.025,0.112 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.023,-0.022,0.064 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.625,0.938,0.056,0.019,0.095 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.058,0.012,0.101 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.297,0.23,0.358 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.054,-0.096,-0.018 @@ -90,6 +90,7 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.011,-0.056,0.033 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.249,0.563,0.013,-0.02,0.054 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.438,0.25,0.594,0.016,-0.019,0.053 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.014,-0.035,0.063 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.017,-0.018,0.053 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.023,-0.005,0.051 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS-3,0.531,0.374,0.688,0.05,-0.013,0.112 @@ -98,15 +99,32 @@ TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-22m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.031,0.004,0.063 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.029,-0.02,0.072 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.078,0.018,0.148 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.038,-0.016,0.085 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.071,0.033,0.111 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.938,0.073,0.022,0.126 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.24,0.374 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.069,-0.125,-0.031 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.532,-0.005,-0.036,0.028 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.025,-0.05,-0.004 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.0,-0.032,0.034 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.002,-0.027,0.033 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.014,-0.067,0.034 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.003,-0.03,0.035 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.009,-0.019,0.037 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.037,-0.008,0.079 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.625,0.438,0.781,-0.003,-0.067,0.048 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.018,-0.02,0.054 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.015,-0.042,0.056 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.066,0.028,0.107 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.025,-0.005,0.056 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.06,0.032,0.089 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.299,0.234,0.357 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.072,-0.129,-0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.008,-0.037,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.028,-0.056,-0.003 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.469,0.312,0.656,-0.004,-0.034,0.028 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.001,-0.028,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.017,-0.056,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.003,-0.036,0.029 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.006,-0.014,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS-3,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.033,-0.01,0.081 @@ -115,7 +133,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-22m,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.015,-0.023,0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.012,-0.041,0.056 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.063,0.017,0.116 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.022,-0.014,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.055,0.012,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.057,0.019,0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.297,0.235,0.356 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.079,-0.128,-0.041 @@ -124,6 +141,7 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.034,-0.063,-0.009 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.01,-0.036,0.018 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.007,-0.032,0.022 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.023,-0.054,0.005 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.009,-0.039,0.018 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.006,-0.024,0.014 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.028,-0.022,0.079 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ TiRex,Toto-2.0-22m,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.009,-0.02,0.038 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.006,-0.047,0.047 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.057,0.014,0.111 TiRex,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.016,-0.021,0.047 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.049,0.016,0.083 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.051,0.014,0.089 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.292,0.228,0.352 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.109,-0.171,-0.053 @@ -141,6 +158,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.064,-0.117,-0.016 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.038,-0.103,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.036,-0.094,0.017 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.469,0.312,0.626,-0.052,-0.127,0.012 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.038,-0.085,0.008 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.035,-0.088,0.009 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.028,-0.086,0.021 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.019,-0.083,0.032 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.594,0.406,0.75,-0.022,-0.071,0.018 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.03,-0.019,0.078 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.875,-0.012,-0.072,0.04 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.022,-0.039,0.084 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.024,-0.023,0.07 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.272,0.223,0.317 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.375,0.219,0.532,-0.065,-0.108,-0.026 @@ -158,6 +175,7 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.022,-0.072,0.039 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.375,0.219,0.531,0.003,-0.056,0.069 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.344,0.188,0.5,0.005,-0.048,0.065 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.011,-0.054,0.033 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.375,0.219,0.562,0.003,-0.05,0.063 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.219,0.531,0.006,-0.035,0.059 FlowState,TiRex,0.469,0.281,0.625,0.012,-0.028,0.06 FlowState,TabPFN-TS-3,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.04,-0.013,0.101 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ FlowState,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.021,-0.022,0.065 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.018,-0.017,0.05 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.069,0.003,0.153 FlowState,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.028,-0.025,0.09 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.061,0.005,0.117 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.063,0.01,0.12 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.301,0.235,0.366 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.088,-0.13,-0.051 @@ -175,6 +192,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.043,-0.084,-0.004 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.019,-0.047,0.015 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.016,-0.039,0.012 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.032,-0.068,-0.004 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.018,-0.057,0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.015,-0.056,0.023 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.009,-0.04,0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS-3,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.019,-0.033,0.077 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-22m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.406,0.719,-0.003,-0.049,0.039 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.049,0.001,0.107 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.007,-0.049,0.058 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.781,0.656,0.938,0.041,0.011,0.075 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.043,-0.003,0.085 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.286,0.222,0.35 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.085,-0.123,-0.049 @@ -192,6 +209,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.041,-0.082,0.013 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.016,-0.067,0.047 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.013,-0.063,0.044 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.029,-0.077,0.02 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.015,-0.06,0.04 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.012,-0.059,0.039 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.006,-0.049,0.044 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.594,0.022,-0.018,0.066 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-22m,0.438,0.281,0.594,0.003,-0.04,0.047 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.051,-0.015,0.124 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.01,-0.041,0.069 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.531,0.374,0.719,0.043,-0.011,0.102 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.045,-0.005,0.103 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.233,0.341 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.144,-0.237,-0.077 @@ -209,6 +226,7 @@ TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.097,-0.158,-0.049 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.071,-0.134,-0.027 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.068,-0.126,-0.025 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.085,-0.174,-0.018 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.07,-0.12,-0.029 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.067,-0.131,-0.018 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.06,-0.125,-0.014 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS-3,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.031,-0.085,0.019 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-22m,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.051,-0.12,-0.001 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.054,-0.141,0.015 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.562,0.406,0.75,-0.043,-0.108,0.01 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.594,0.438,0.75,-0.008,-0.065,0.042 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.006,-0.047,0.031 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.25,0.184,0.313 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.096,-0.161,-0.045 @@ -226,6 +243,7 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.051,-0.085,-0.023 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.026,-0.072,0.022 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.023,-0.068,0.022 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.04,-0.093,0.015 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.026,-0.06,0.005 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.022,-0.053,0.014 citras-fm,TiRex,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.016,-0.049,0.021 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS-3,0.25,0.125,0.406,0.012,-0.042,0.067 @@ -234,32 +252,15 @@ citras-fm,Toto-2.0-22m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.007,-0.062,0.046 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.01,-0.074,0.04 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.438,0.25,0.594,0.042,-0.01,0.098 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.034,-0.018,0.086 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.562,0.405,0.719,0.036,0.005,0.072 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.281,0.208,0.352 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.134,-0.188,-0.091 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.067,-0.112,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.088,-0.14,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.062,-0.106,-0.023 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.219,0.062,0.375,-0.059,-0.104,-0.019 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.076,-0.125,-0.034 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.058,-0.107,-0.012 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.052,-0.091,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.022,-0.091,0.038 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.065,-0.132,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.219,0.062,0.344,-0.042,-0.081,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.469,0.281,0.626,-0.045,-0.114,0.011 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.406,0.25,0.562,0.008,-0.043,0.061 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.035,-0.094,0.017 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.002,-0.041,0.04 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.256,0.185,0.321 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.137,-0.201,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.069,-0.122,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.09,-0.139,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.064,-0.118,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.061,-0.112,-0.012 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.156,0.062,0.281,-0.078,-0.144,-0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.064,-0.097,-0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.06,-0.11,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.054,-0.097,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS-3,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.025,-0.075,0.022 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-22m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.045,-0.093,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.048,-0.115,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.625,0.006,-0.032,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.595,-0.037,-0.077,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.002,-0.042,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.254,0.188,0.321 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.67,-0.398 @@ -277,6 +277,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.461,-0.597,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.427,-0.567,-0.296 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.423,-0.557,-0.299 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.598,-0.315 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.426,-0.554,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.421,-0.554,-0.307 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.413,-0.544,-0.296 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS-3,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.374,-0.465,-0.287 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-22m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.401,-0.539,-0.285 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.517,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.333,-0.456,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.391,-0.544,-0.263 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.344,-0.473,-0.226 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.341,-0.472,-0.231 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv index a67c17700479f9792299ae20c050d687df9ea130..47de9c1e7bdf81faa1e08ad85fddd21d6e9ba532 100644 --- a/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/task_type_univariate/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ TimesFM-3,Chronos-2,0.531,0.344,0.719,0.034,0.002,0.076 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.061,0.022,0.109 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.057,0.023,0.097 TimesFM-3,TiRex-2,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.046,0.013,0.082 +TimesFM-3,t0-beta,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.058,0.029,0.099 TimesFM-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.065,0.031,0.105 TimesFM-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.068,0.035,0.113 TimesFM-3,TiRex,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.067,0.035,0.106 @@ -13,7 +14,6 @@ TimesFM-3,FlowState,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.072,0.034,0.11 TimesFM-3,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.085,0.054,0.116 TimesFM-3,citras-fm,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.091,0.045,0.145 TimesFM-3,TS-ICL,0.906,0.781,0.969,0.128,0.074,0.19 -TimesFM-3,Toto-1.0,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.117,0.083,0.156 TimesFM-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.123,0.082,0.167 TimesFM-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.369,0.483 Chronos-2,TimesFM-3,0.469,0.281,0.656,-0.036,-0.082,-0.002 @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.027,0.001,0.057 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.023,-0.002,0.049 Chronos-2,TiRex-2,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.012,-0.029,0.053 +Chronos-2,t0-beta,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.025,0.005,0.049 Chronos-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.031,0.004,0.059 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.035,0.013,0.058 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.034,0.009,0.062 @@ -30,7 +31,6 @@ Chronos-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.039,-0.02,0.086 Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.053,0.011,0.085 Chronos-2,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.059,0.028,0.095 Chronos-2,TS-ICL,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.097,0.055,0.142 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.086,0.05,0.125 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.091,0.057,0.13 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.408,0.346,0.462 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-3,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.064,-0.122,-0.023 @@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-2,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.028,-0.06,-0.001 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.004,-0.016,0.005 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.015,-0.06,0.018 +Toto-2.0-1B,t0-beta,0.5,0.312,0.656,-0.002,-0.036,0.028 Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.004,-0.011,0.017 Toto-2.0-1B,TimesFM-2.5,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.008,-0.024,0.036 Toto-2.0-1B,TiRex,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.007,-0.021,0.034 @@ -47,7 +48,6 @@ Toto-2.0-1B,FlowState,0.719,0.562,0.844,0.012,-0.061,0.07 Toto-2.0-1B,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.026,-0.03,0.071 Toto-2.0-1B,citras-fm,0.812,0.656,0.938,0.033,-0.017,0.078 Toto-2.0-1B,TS-ICL,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.071,0.029,0.122 -Toto-2.0-1B,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.06,0.025,0.096 Toto-2.0-1B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.066,0.017,0.114 Toto-2.0-1B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.392,0.315,0.453 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-3,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.06,-0.108,-0.023 @@ -55,6 +55,7 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.024,-0.052,0.002 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-1B,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.004,-0.005,0.016 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex-2,0.562,0.406,0.72,-0.011,-0.048,0.02 +Toto-2.0-2.5B,t0-beta,0.5,0.312,0.656,0.002,-0.029,0.031 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-2.0-313m,0.656,0.469,0.812,0.009,-0.001,0.018 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TimesFM-2.5,0.562,0.405,0.719,0.012,-0.017,0.039 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TiRex,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.011,-0.015,0.037 @@ -64,7 +65,6 @@ Toto-2.0-2.5B,FlowState,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.016,-0.049,0.068 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TabPFN-TS,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.03,-0.017,0.069 Toto-2.0-2.5B,citras-fm,0.75,0.594,0.906,0.037,-0.01,0.08 Toto-2.0-2.5B,TS-ICL,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.075,0.031,0.125 -Toto-2.0-2.5B,Toto-1.0,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.064,0.03,0.101 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.07,0.022,0.114 Toto-2.0-2.5B,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.395,0.323,0.452 TiRex-2,TimesFM-3,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.049,-0.089,-0.013 @@ -72,6 +72,7 @@ TiRex-2,Chronos-2,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.013,-0.056,0.029 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.015,-0.019,0.057 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.28,0.594,0.011,-0.02,0.046 TiRex-2,TiRex-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex-2,t0-beta,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.013,-0.033,0.06 TiRex-2,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.312,0.688,0.019,-0.015,0.056 TiRex-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.438,0.781,0.023,-0.011,0.06 TiRex-2,TiRex,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.022,-0.002,0.047 @@ -81,14 +82,31 @@ TiRex-2,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.027,-0.016,0.068 TiRex-2,TabPFN-TS,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.041,-0.005,0.082 TiRex-2,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.047,-0.008,0.097 TiRex-2,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.085,0.024,0.158 -TiRex-2,Toto-1.0,0.875,0.75,0.969,0.074,0.039,0.112 TiRex-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.08,0.031,0.131 TiRex-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.333,0.462 +t0-beta,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.062,-0.11,-0.03 +t0-beta,Chronos-2,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.026,-0.052,-0.005 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-1B,0.5,0.344,0.688,0.002,-0.029,0.035 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.5,0.344,0.688,-0.002,-0.031,0.028 +t0-beta,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.013,-0.064,0.032 +t0-beta,t0-beta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-313m,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.007,-0.022,0.036 +t0-beta,TimesFM-2.5,0.625,0.469,0.812,0.01,-0.022,0.042 +t0-beta,TiRex,0.5,0.344,0.656,0.009,-0.019,0.039 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS-3,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.035,-0.007,0.074 +t0-beta,Toto-2.0-22m,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.019,-0.018,0.052 +t0-beta,FlowState,0.625,0.438,0.781,0.014,-0.047,0.067 +t0-beta,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.028,-0.017,0.066 +t0-beta,citras-fm,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.035,-0.001,0.073 +t0-beta,TS-ICL,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.073,0.039,0.112 +t0-beta,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.068,0.041,0.1 +t0-beta,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.393,0.328,0.451 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.069,-0.117,-0.032 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.033,-0.063,-0.004 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.004,-0.017,0.01 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.344,0.188,0.531,-0.009,-0.019,0.001 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex-2,0.5,0.312,0.688,-0.02,-0.059,0.014 +Toto-2.0-313m,t0-beta,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.007,-0.037,0.021 Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-2.0-313m,TimesFM-2.5,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.004,-0.032,0.031 Toto-2.0-313m,TiRex,0.625,0.469,0.782,0.003,-0.028,0.029 @@ -98,7 +116,6 @@ Toto-2.0-313m,FlowState,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.008,-0.055,0.059 Toto-2.0-313m,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.022,-0.029,0.064 Toto-2.0-313m,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.028,-0.018,0.075 Toto-2.0-313m,TS-ICL,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.067,0.025,0.117 -Toto-2.0-313m,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.056,0.02,0.093 Toto-2.0-313m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.062,0.015,0.105 Toto-2.0-313m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.389,0.317,0.448 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-3,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.073,-0.128,-0.037 @@ -106,6 +123,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.036,-0.062,-0.013 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-1B,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.008,-0.038,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.438,0.281,0.595,-0.013,-0.041,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex-2,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.024,-0.064,0.011 +TimesFM-2.5,t0-beta,0.375,0.188,0.531,-0.011,-0.044,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-2.0-313m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.004,-0.032,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.001,-0.022,0.019 @@ -115,7 +133,6 @@ TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.004,-0.055,0.048 TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.018,-0.03,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,citras-fm,0.781,0.625,0.906,0.024,-0.013,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TS-ICL,0.688,0.53,0.844,0.064,0.02,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.052,0.013,0.091 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.844,0.719,0.969,0.058,0.021,0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.969,0.906,1.0,0.387,0.321,0.445 TiRex,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.072,-0.119,-0.036 @@ -123,6 +140,7 @@ TiRex,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.035,-0.066,-0.01 TiRex,Toto-2.0-1B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.007,-0.036,0.021 TiRex,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.012,-0.039,0.015 TiRex,TiRex-2,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.023,-0.049,0.002 +TiRex,t0-beta,0.5,0.344,0.656,-0.01,-0.04,0.019 TiRex,Toto-2.0-313m,0.375,0.218,0.531,-0.003,-0.03,0.027 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.531,0.375,0.688,0.001,-0.02,0.022 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -132,7 +150,6 @@ TiRex,FlowState,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.005,-0.047,0.045 TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.019,-0.027,0.058 TiRex,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,0.025,-0.015,0.064 TiRex,TS-ICL,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.065,0.019,0.119 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.053,0.02,0.087 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.059,0.021,0.099 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.317,0.447 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-3,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.101,-0.156,-0.049 @@ -140,6 +157,7 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-2,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.063,-0.109,-0.02 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-1B,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.034,-0.095,0.023 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.038,-0.094,0.011 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex-2,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.05,-0.123,0.014 +TabPFN-TS-3,t0-beta,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.036,-0.08,0.007 TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-2.0-313m,0.406,0.25,0.562,-0.029,-0.084,0.021 TabPFN-TS-3,TimesFM-2.5,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.025,-0.077,0.016 TabPFN-TS-3,TiRex,0.531,0.375,0.688,-0.026,-0.084,0.022 @@ -149,7 +167,6 @@ TabPFN-TS-3,FlowState,0.594,0.406,0.75,-0.021,-0.087,0.033 TabPFN-TS-3,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.007,-0.051,0.031 TabPFN-TS-3,citras-fm,0.719,0.562,0.875,-0.0,-0.057,0.049 TabPFN-TS-3,TS-ICL,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.04,-0.009,0.091 -TabPFN-TS-3,Toto-1.0,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.028,-0.032,0.089 TabPFN-TS-3,Chronos-Bolt,0.781,0.656,0.906,0.034,-0.009,0.079 TabPFN-TS-3,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.315,0.424 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.083,-0.121,-0.049 @@ -157,6 +174,7 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.046,-0.085,-0.006 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.017,-0.047,0.02 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.022,-0.048,0.009 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.033,-0.068,-0.006 +Toto-2.0-22m,t0-beta,0.469,0.312,0.625,-0.019,-0.055,0.018 Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.013,-0.034,0.014 Toto-2.0-22m,TimesFM-2.5,0.406,0.219,0.562,-0.009,-0.049,0.031 Toto-2.0-22m,TiRex,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.01,-0.041,0.018 @@ -166,7 +184,6 @@ Toto-2.0-22m,FlowState,0.469,0.281,0.625,-0.005,-0.052,0.037 Toto-2.0-22m,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.009,-0.036,0.053 Toto-2.0-22m,citras-fm,0.594,0.438,0.75,0.016,-0.041,0.069 Toto-2.0-22m,TS-ICL,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.055,0.007,0.115 -Toto-2.0-22m,Toto-1.0,0.812,0.688,0.938,0.044,0.012,0.078 Toto-2.0-22m,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.594,0.875,0.05,0.005,0.094 Toto-2.0-22m,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.381,0.312,0.442 FlowState,TimesFM-3,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.078,-0.124,-0.035 @@ -174,6 +191,7 @@ FlowState,Chronos-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.041,-0.094,0.019 FlowState,Toto-2.0-1B,0.281,0.156,0.438,-0.012,-0.075,0.057 FlowState,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.017,-0.073,0.047 FlowState,TiRex-2,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.028,-0.073,0.016 +FlowState,t0-beta,0.375,0.219,0.562,-0.015,-0.071,0.045 FlowState,Toto-2.0-313m,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.008,-0.063,0.053 FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.004,-0.051,0.052 FlowState,TiRex,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.005,-0.048,0.045 @@ -183,7 +201,6 @@ FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.014,-0.025,0.05 FlowState,citras-fm,0.469,0.281,0.656,0.021,-0.039,0.085 FlowState,TS-ICL,0.562,0.406,0.719,0.06,-0.008,0.146 -FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.048,-0.014,0.107 FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.531,0.844,0.055,-0.0,0.113 FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.812,1.0,0.384,0.318,0.446 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.093,-0.131,-0.057 @@ -191,6 +208,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.056,-0.093,-0.011 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-1B,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.027,-0.076,0.029 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.031,-0.075,0.017 TabPFN-TS,TiRex-2,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.042,-0.089,0.005 +TabPFN-TS,t0-beta,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.029,-0.07,0.017 TabPFN-TS,Toto-2.0-313m,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.022,-0.068,0.028 TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.018,-0.061,0.029 TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.019,-0.061,0.026 @@ -200,7 +218,6 @@ TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.014,-0.053,0.024 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TabPFN-TS,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.625,0.006,-0.042,0.063 TabPFN-TS,TS-ICL,0.469,0.312,0.656,0.046,-0.019,0.115 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.562,0.405,0.72,0.035,-0.018,0.091 TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.041,-0.007,0.092 TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.316,0.428 citras-fm,TimesFM-3,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.1,-0.169,-0.047 @@ -208,6 +225,7 @@ citras-fm,Chronos-2,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.062,-0.104,-0.029 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-1B,0.188,0.062,0.344,-0.034,-0.085,0.017 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.25,0.094,0.406,-0.038,-0.087,0.01 citras-fm,TiRex-2,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.049,-0.107,0.008 +citras-fm,t0-beta,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.036,-0.079,0.001 citras-fm,Toto-2.0-313m,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.029,-0.081,0.018 citras-fm,TimesFM-2.5,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.025,-0.061,0.013 citras-fm,TiRex,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.026,-0.068,0.014 @@ -217,7 +235,6 @@ citras-fm,FlowState,0.531,0.344,0.719,-0.021,-0.093,0.038 citras-fm,TabPFN-TS,0.562,0.375,0.719,-0.007,-0.067,0.04 citras-fm,citras-fm,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 citras-fm,TS-ICL,0.562,0.375,0.719,0.04,-0.014,0.095 -citras-fm,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.469,0.781,0.028,-0.026,0.081 citras-fm,Chronos-Bolt,0.656,0.5,0.812,0.035,0.004,0.068 citras-fm,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.372,0.297,0.436 TS-ICL,TimesFM-3,0.094,0.031,0.219,-0.146,-0.235,-0.08 @@ -225,6 +242,7 @@ TS-ICL,Chronos-2,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.107,-0.166,-0.058 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-1B,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.077,-0.139,-0.029 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.081,-0.143,-0.032 TS-ICL,TiRex-2,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.093,-0.187,-0.024 +TS-ICL,t0-beta,0.219,0.094,0.344,-0.079,-0.126,-0.041 TS-ICL,Toto-2.0-313m,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.072,-0.133,-0.025 TS-ICL,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.156,0.47,-0.068,-0.133,-0.02 TS-ICL,TiRex,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.069,-0.136,-0.02 @@ -234,31 +252,14 @@ TS-ICL,FlowState,0.438,0.281,0.594,-0.064,-0.17,0.008 TS-ICL,TabPFN-TS,0.531,0.344,0.688,-0.049,-0.131,0.019 TS-ICL,citras-fm,0.438,0.281,0.625,-0.042,-0.105,0.014 TS-ICL,TS-ICL,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TS-ICL,Toto-1.0,0.594,0.438,0.75,-0.012,-0.067,0.036 TS-ICL,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.438,0.781,-0.006,-0.053,0.038 TS-ICL,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.411 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-3,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.132,-0.184,-0.091 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.094,-0.143,-0.053 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-1B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.064,-0.106,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.068,-0.112,-0.03 -Toto-1.0,TiRex-2,0.125,0.031,0.25,-0.08,-0.126,-0.04 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-313m,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.059,-0.103,-0.02 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.281,0.125,0.438,-0.055,-0.101,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.056,-0.095,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS-3,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.029,-0.098,0.031 -Toto-1.0,Toto-2.0-22m,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.046,-0.085,-0.012 -Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.051,-0.12,0.014 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.438,0.28,0.595,-0.036,-0.101,0.018 -Toto-1.0,citras-fm,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.029,-0.088,0.025 -Toto-1.0,TS-ICL,0.406,0.25,0.562,0.012,-0.038,0.063 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.594,0.406,0.75,0.007,-0.041,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.906,0.781,1.0,0.353,0.278,0.419 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-3,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.14,-0.2,-0.089 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.101,-0.15,-0.06 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-1B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.071,-0.129,-0.017 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.219,0.094,0.375,-0.075,-0.129,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex-2,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.087,-0.15,-0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,t0-beta,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.073,-0.111,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-2.0-313m,0.25,0.125,0.406,-0.066,-0.117,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.156,0.031,0.281,-0.062,-0.11,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.062,0.312,-0.063,-0.11,-0.022 @@ -268,7 +269,6 @@ Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.312,0.156,0.469,-0.058,-0.127,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.219,0.531,-0.043,-0.101,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,citras-fm,0.344,0.188,0.5,-0.036,-0.073,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TS-ICL,0.375,0.219,0.562,0.006,-0.039,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.406,0.25,0.594,-0.007,-0.05,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.938,0.844,1.0,0.349,0.278,0.411 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-3,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.751,-0.935,-0.585 @@ -276,6 +276,7 @@ Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.691,-0.858,-0.53 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-1B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.645,-0.829,-0.459 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-2.5B,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.652,-0.824,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TiRex-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.67,-0.86,-0.5 +Seasonal Naive,t0-beta,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.648,-0.823,-0.487 Seasonal Naive,Toto-2.0-313m,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.637,-0.813,-0.464 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.031,0.0,0.094,-0.631,-0.801,-0.472 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.81,-0.465 @@ -285,6 +286,5 @@ Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.094,0.0,0.188,-0.624,-0.806,-0.467 Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.75,-0.462 Seasonal Naive,citras-fm,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.591,-0.772,-0.422 Seasonal Naive,TS-ICL,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.527,-0.697,-0.366 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.094,0.0,0.219,-0.546,-0.721,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.062,0.0,0.156,-0.536,-0.698,-0.385 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0