# Replicating mini-AGI's continual-learning claims

Upstream: https://github.com/volotat/mini-AGI at commit `201852d`, vendored
unmodified in `upstream/mini-AGI/` (only its `data/` layout was changed, see
below).

## Claims under test (README, "How continual learning works")

1. Reading 524k characters of chess only, trunk LR at 0.1x the experts'
   leaves the other seven subjects at **+0.0067 nats** (99.84% retained vs
   chance). At trunk LR = expert LR: **+2.23** (swapping) / **+2.59** (working
   set frozen). Control, all subjects read: **-0.0077**.
2. The expert pool is not the mechanism: freezing the working set explains only
   13.8% of the effect.
3. Displacement, not destruction: ~3/4 of the damage comes back in 131k
   characters of mixed reading.
4. During the 0.1x probe only 54 of 136 experts received any gradient.

## Scale

Upstream: 540M params (8.3M trunk), 409M characters, RTX 3070 laptop, ~713 c/s.
Here: `configs/rep_s.yaml`, 14.7M params at start (2.1M trunk, 32 experts of
0.39M, 16 resident), ~8k c/s per run with two runs sharing the 4080 Super.
Every scaled value is annotated in the config with its upstream value; ratios
(top_k/resident, halting mean/max depth, chunk/context) are preserved.

## Deviations and assumptions

| What | Upstream | Here | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Held-out `chat_hermes` | scored separately | restored to `data/val/chat_hermes` | upstream's builder overwrites it: `expand` wipes `data/val/chat` after Hermes writes there |
| Training lanes | 8 (inferred) | 8, 1:1 with held-out subjects | the builder puts Hermes under `train/chat/hermes`, merging it into the synthetic chat lane |
| Context | grows 2048 -> 4096 | fixed 1024 | context growth is not part of any claim |
| **Optimiser steps per character** | 1 per 2,048 chars (chunk 2048) | revision 1: 1 per 512 (4x, unnoticed); revision 2: 1 per 2,048 via `--accum 4` | forgetting scales ~quadratically with LR x steps; this deviation produced revision 1's error |
| Sample text generation | every eval | every 15th eval (`SAMPLE_GEN_EVERY`) | logging only; held-out eval still runs every time and drives the LR controller |
| `GradSNR` meter | crashes if a grad is None | missing grad counted as zeros | latent upstream bug: depth 1 leaves the halting head gradless; ~1.4%/step at our depth, ~3e-6 at upstream's |
| Probe code | unpublished (`tools/`, `runs/cl/` missing) | `harness/probe.py` | rebuilt from README text |
| Probe LR | unstated | base LR x the base checkpoint's plasticity scale, frozen for the probe | every arm reads at the same rate |
| Growth/pruning in probe | unstated | off | a dry `read` does neither |
| "Frozen working set" | unstated | chosen once by peeking the first chess chunk, restored after each eval | most literal reading |
| Control arm | "all seven subjects read" | all 8 lanes round-robin, trunk 0.1x | the normal training regime |

Observation on claim 3: with `passage` = 32,768 characters, 131k characters of
mixed reading visits only 4 of 8 subjects. Recovery here runs 1M characters
(4 full cycles) and is reported per subject.

## Run log

- 2026-09-22 18:27: seed 0 base died at 12 min with a PyTorch internal assert
  (`CUDAGuardImpl.h:28`) in a plain matmul in `PagedPool._key_of`, during
  evaluation. Not reproduced since; treated as transient. Its probe matrix ran on
  the 12-minute base and is quarantined in `runs/probes_INVALID_seed0_12min_base`
  (a pilot only). Seed 0 was restarted from scratch under `harness/supervise.py`,
  which resumes after crashes and stops at seed 1's final character count.
- 2026-09-23 00:03: both bases done (77.6M / 77.3M chars; plasticity scale
  0.775 / 0.614). Full matrix ran on both, no failures.
- 2026-09-23: follow-ups `harness/run_lrscale.sh` (R3 at fixed probe LR scale
  0.1/0.3/0.6/1.0) and `L_swap_t0.1_scale0.1_4M` (low-rate 4M probe). Key
  result: the README's +0.0067 reappears at probe LR 0.1x, but forgetting still
  climbs to +0.90 / +0.63 by 4M characters. Write-up in `REPORT.md`, figures
  from `harness/figures.py` into `report_figs/`.

- 2026-09-23: **correction — step density.** Our chunk of 512 (vs upstream 2048) meant 4x more optimiser
  steps per character. `harness/probe.py --accum N` (gradient accumulation) matches upstream at N=4.
  `harness/run_stepdensity.sh` (accum 1/2/4 on the headline arm) and `harness/run_accum4.sh` (trunk 1x,
  all-0.1x, control, 4M probe at accum 4). At matched density the headline replicates (+0.030 / +0.022).
  The first public report (Space + issue #21) overstated forgetting; the Space was taken down and
  revision 2 (`report/report.html`, figures `report_figs_v2/` via `harness/figures.py v2`) replaces it.
  Revision 1 kept locally as `report/report_v1.*`.

## Metrics

- forgetting = mean over unread subjects of (loss_end - loss_start), same held-out text every eval
- retained = 1 - forgetting / (ln 265 - mean start loss of unread subjects) - reproduces upstream's figure
- gain = start - end loss on the subjects read. Upstream reports chess +0.013 at 0.1x; the question is
  whether low forgetting is bought with low learning.

## Experiment matrix (`harness/run_matrix.sh`)

R1-R4 replicate the four arms. E1 (everything at 0.1x) tests whether the
trunk/pool split matters or just a lower rate. E2-E5 sweep the trunk
multiplier for the stability-plasticity frontier. E6/E7 run 8x longer.
Two base seeds (`runs/bases/s_seed{0,1}`), probes land in `runs/probes/`.