Update backtest_indonesia.py

backtest_indonesia.py

@@ -226,10 +226,6 @@ def compute_product_l1_metrics(records: Sequence[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, A
                     tp += 1
                 else:
                     fn += 1
-            # else: labeled day with no drought/flood event recorded --
-            # not currently reachable given how replay_zone sets gt_source,
-            # but excluded from tp/fn rather than silently counted as tn,
-            # consistent with "no confirmed negatives" below.
         else:
             n_unlabeled += 1
             if emitted:
@@ -324,8 +320,18 @@ def replay_zone(
     vt = start
     while vt <= end:
         if mode == "live":
-            dr = (vt - timedelta(days=35), vt)
-            obs = edp.fetch_zone_obs(zone_id, dr, cfg)
+            # FIX (this session): era5_data_pipeline.fetch_zone_obs now
+            # takes an explicit valid_time instead of an ambiguous
+            # (start, end) date_range tuple. The old call here --
+            # dr = (vt - timedelta(days=35), vt); fetch_zone_obs(zone_id, dr, cfg)
+            # -- assumed date_range[1] (vt) was the anchor, but the OLD
+            # fetch_zone_obs/_fetch_openmeteo always used date_range[0] as
+            # valid_time, so obs.valid_time here was silently vt-35, not
+            # vt, for every single --mode live backtest ever run. This is
+            # now simpler AND correct: passing vt directly makes that
+            # class of bug structurally impossible (no tuple position to
+            # get backwards).
+            obs = edp.fetch_zone_obs(zone_id, vt, cfg)
             forecast = forecast_backend.forecast(obs)
         else:
             flag: Dict[str, bool] = {}
@@ -617,8 +623,6 @@ def _self_test() -> int:
         )
 
     # 1. Metrics on a fabricated series with known expected values.
-    #    alerts: 5,6,7 (early), 25 (isolated), 40,41 (inside run 2)
-    #    events: 10-14 (run 1), 40-42 (run 2)
     recs: List[DayRecord] = []
     for day in range(50):
         alert = day in (5, 6, 7, 25, 40, 41)
@@ -688,7 +692,6 @@ def _self_test() -> int:
         {"gt_source": "l1", "event_drought": True, "product_emit": "EMITTED"},   # TP
         {"gt_source": "l1", "event_flood": True, "product_emit": "EMITTED"},     # TP
         {"gt_source": "l1", "event_drought": True, "product_emit": "skipped"},   # FN
-        # Unlabeled days that got emitted must NOT count as FP under this design.
         {"gt_source": "proxy", "event_drought": True, "product_emit": "EMITTED"},
         {"gt_source": "proxy+l1_miss", "event_flood": True, "product_emit": "EMITTED"},
         {"gt_source": "proxy", "event_drought": False, "product_emit": "skipped"},