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from __future__ import annotations
import json
import random
import statistics
from pathlib import Path
from typing import cast
import pytest
from offload.prefill_maxlen.evidence import Json, number, record
from offload.launch.windows import decision_v2 as d
PROMPT = 'c' * 64 # the one proved prompt identity of a cell's values (DP-2)
OTHER = 'd' * 64
def Series(cell: str, metric: str, higher: bool, control: tuple[float, ...], candidate: tuple[float, ...],
paired: bool = True, prompt: str | None = PROMPT) -> d.Series:
ids = () if prompt is None else (prompt,)
return d.Series(cell, metric, higher, tuple(control), tuple(candidate), paired, ids * len(control),
ids * len(candidate))
def test_t_quantiles_match_table_and_floor_fractional_df() -> None:
assert d.t975(2) == 4.303 and d.t975(2.9) == 4.303 and d.t975(200) == 2.042
with pytest.raises(ValueError):
d.t975(0.5)
def test_clear_paired_win_lower_bound_above_zero() -> None:
s = Series('short-b1', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6))
r = d.decide_cell(s)
interval = r['interval95']
assert isinstance(interval, list)
lo = number(interval[0])
assert r['verdict'] == 'WIN' and number(r['point_gain']) > .05 and lo > 0
def test_gain_below_min_is_inconclusive_even_with_tight_interval() -> None:
s = Series('short-b1', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 60.0, 60.0), (60.9, 60.9, 60.9))
assert d.decide_cell(s)['verdict'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE'
def test_noisy_five_percent_is_inconclusive_not_loss() -> None:
s = Series('32k-b1', 'ttft_s', False, (15.0, 14.0, 15.4), (13.0, 15.2, 13.6))
assert d.decide_cell(s)['verdict'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE'
def test_loss_needs_two_of_three_repeats_beyond_own_spread_and_the_interval_below_zero() -> None:
worse = Series('short-b1', 'ms_per_round', False, (40.0, 40.4, 40.2), (43.0, 43.5, 43.2))
assert d.decide_cell(worse)['verdict'] == 'LOSS'
one_bad = Series('short-b1', 'ms_per_round', False, (40.0, 40.4, 40.2), (43.0, 40.3, 40.1))
assert d.decide_cell(one_bad)['verdict'] != 'LOSS'
# Revision 3: two of three repeats far beyond the spread, but the third is equal, so the interval crosses zero.
noisy = Series('short-b1', 'ms_per_round', False, (40.0, 40.4, 40.2), (43.0, 43.5, 40.1))
r = d.decide_cell(noisy)
assert r['loss_repeat_test'] is True and number(cast(list[Json], r['interval95'])[1]) > 0
assert r['verdict'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE' # revision 2: LOSS
def test_orientation_lower_is_better() -> None:
faster = Series('150k-b1', 'ttft_s', False, (69.0, 69.5, 69.2), (64.0, 64.3, 64.1))
r = d.decide_cell(faster)
assert r['verdict'] == 'WIN' and number(r['point_gain']) > 0
def test_unpaired_welch_interval() -> None:
s = Series('mixed', 'decode_tps', True, (50.0, 51.0, 49.5, 50.5), (55.0, 56.0, 55.5), paired=False)
r = d.decide_cell(s)
assert r['paired'] is False and r['verdict'] == 'WIN' and 'Welch' in str(r['interval_method'])
@pytest.mark.parametrize('control,candidate', [((1.0, 2.0), (1.0, 2.0, 3.0)), ((1.0, 2.0, 3.0), (1.0, 2.0))])
def test_fewer_than_three_repeats_refused(control: tuple[float, ...], candidate: tuple[float, ...]) -> None:
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='at least 3'):
d.decide_cell(Series('c', 'm', True, control, candidate))
def test_paired_needs_equal_lengths_and_positive_values() -> None:
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='equal repeats'):
d.decide_cell(Series('c', 'm', True, (1.0, 2.0, 3.0), (1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0)))
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='positive'):
d.decide_cell(Series('c', 'm', True, (1.0, 0.0, 3.0), (1.0, 2.0, 3.0)))
def _win(cell: str) -> d.Series:
return Series(cell, 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6))
def _loss(cell: str) -> d.Series:
return Series(cell, 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 60.2, 60.1), (55.0, 55.1, 55.3))
def _flat(cell: str) -> d.Series:
return Series(cell, 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (60.2, 61.1, 60.6))
def test_window_candidate_needs_a_win_and_no_loss() -> None:
r = d.decide_window([_win('a'), _flat('b')], ['a', 'b'])
assert r['rule'] == 'win2-v1' and r['status'] == 'CANDIDATE'
assert d.decide_window([_win('a'), _loss('b')], ['a', 'b'])['status'] == 'NOT A CANDIDATE'
assert d.decide_window([_flat('a'), _flat('b')], ['a', 'b'])['status'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE'
def test_reported_cells_never_decide_and_may_have_fewer_repeats() -> None:
reported = Series('mixed', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0,), (40.0,))
r = d.decide_window([_win('a'), reported], ['a'])
assert r['status'] == 'CANDIDATE'
cell = record(record(r['cells'])['mixed'])
assert cell['decides'] is False and cell['verdict'] == 'REPORTED'
def test_decision_cells_never_pool_or_pair_across_prompt_hashes() -> None:
"""DP-2: a decision cell refuses values without prompt identities, of two prompts in one arm, of different prompts in
the two arms, and a guard of another prompt than its primary; a reported cell checks consistency when given."""
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='no prompt sha256'):
d.decide_window([Series('a', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6), prompt=None)], ['a'])
mixed_arm = d.Series('a', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6), True,
(PROMPT, PROMPT, OTHER), (PROMPT,) * 3)
other_arm = d.Series('a', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6), True,
(PROMPT,) * 3, (OTHER,) * 3)
guard_other = Series('a', 'accepted_per_round', True, (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), prompt=OTHER)
for rows in ([mixed_arm], [other_arm], [_win('a'), guard_other]):
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='never pools or pairs across prompt hashes'):
d.decide_window(rows, ['a'])
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='one prompt sha256 per value'):
d.decide_window([d.Series('a', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6), True,
(PROMPT,) * 2, (PROMPT,) * 3)], ['a'])
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='never pools or pairs across prompt hashes'):
d.decide_window([_win('a'), Series('r', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0,), (40.0,), prompt=None),
d.Series('r2', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0,), (40.0,), True, (PROMPT,), (OTHER,))], ['a'])
r = d.decide_window([_win('a'), Series('r', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0,), (40.0,), prompt=None)], ['a'])
assert record(record(r['cells'])['a'])['prompt_sha256'] == PROMPT
assert d.decide_cell(Series('a', 'decode_tps', True, (60.0, 61.0, 60.5), (64.0, 65.2, 64.6), prompt=None))[
'prompt_sha256'] is None # cell arithmetic alone; decision cells require it
def test_guard_metric_can_only_cause_loss() -> None:
primary = _win('a')
guard_bad = Series('a', 'accepted_per_round', True, (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), (1.10, 1.12, 1.11))
assert d.decide_window([primary, guard_bad], ['a'])['status'] == 'NOT A CANDIDATE'
guard_win = Series('a', 'accepted_per_round', True, (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), (1.50, 1.52, 1.51))
r = d.decide_window([_flat('a'), guard_win], ['a'])
assert r['status'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE' and r['rule_revision'] == 3
assert record(record(record(record(r['cells'])['a'])['metrics'])['accepted_per_round'])['verdict'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE'
def test_guard_loss_needs_whole_interval_below_zero() -> None:
"""S92 FIX 3: two of three guard repeats beyond the spread but the interval crosses zero -> no LOSS (rev 1: LOSS)."""
noisy = Series('a', 'accepted_per_round', True, (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), (1.10, 1.12, 1.30))
as_guard = d.decide_cell(noisy, guard=True)
assert as_guard['loss_repeat_test'] is True and number(cast(list[Json], as_guard['interval95'])[1]) > 0
assert as_guard['verdict'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE'
assert d.decide_window([_win('a'), noisy], ['a'])['status'] == 'CANDIDATE'
def test_primary_loss_needs_whole_interval_below_zero_revision_3() -> None:
"""WIN2-R3 item 0: the primary follows the guard's LOSS rule (revision 2 lost on the loss-repeat test alone)."""
noisy = Series('a', 'accepted_per_round', True, (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), (1.10, 1.12, 1.30))
primary = d.decide_cell(noisy)
assert primary['role'] == 'primary' and primary['loss_repeat_test'] is True
assert number(cast(list[Json], primary['interval95'])[1]) > 0 and primary['verdict'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE'
r = d.decide_window([noisy], ['a'])
assert r['status'] == 'INCONCLUSIVE' and r['rule_revision'] == d.RULE_REVISION == 3
clear = Series('a', 'accepted_per_round', True, (1.30, 1.31, 1.30), (1.10, 1.12, 1.11))
assert d.decide_cell(clear)['verdict'] == 'LOSS' and d.decide_window([clear], ['a'])['status'] == 'NOT A CANDIDATE'
def test_paired_loss_threshold_is_sqrt2_spread() -> None:
control = (40.0, 40.4, 40.2) # s 0.2, c4(3) 0.8862: spread 0.949 %; paired threshold 1.342 %
within = Series('c', 'ms_per_round', False, control, (40.45, 40.9, 40.2)) # -1.12 %, -1.24 %, 0 %
r = d.decide_cell(within)
assert abs(number(r['control_spread']) - 1.69 * 0.2 / d.c4(3) / 40.2) < 1e-12 and abs(d.c4(3) - 0.886227) < 1e-6
assert abs(number(r['loss_threshold']) - 2 ** .5 * number(r['control_spread'])) < 1e-15
assert r['loss_repeats'] == 0 and r['verdict'] != 'LOSS' # single-value spread: 2 of 3 -> LOSS
unpaired = d.decide_cell(Series('c', 'ms_per_round', False, control, (40.7, 40.9, 40.8), paired=False))
assert unpaired['loss_threshold'] == unpaired['control_spread'] and unpaired['loss_repeats'] == 3
def test_control_spread_does_not_grow_with_control_repeats() -> None:
"""S92 FIX 3 item 5: the range of 8 controls is ~1.7 x the range of 3; the 1.69 x SD spread stays put."""
rng = random.Random(9)
def mean_of(n: int, key: str) -> float:
values = []
for _ in range(2000):
control = tuple(40 * (1 + rng.gauss(0, .02)) for _ in range(n))
values.append(number(d.decide_cell(Series('c', 'ms_per_round', False, control, (40.0, 40.0, 40.0),
paired=False))[key]))
return statistics.fmean(values)
assert mean_of(8, 'control_range') / mean_of(3, 'control_range') > 1.5
assert 0.95 < mean_of(8, 'control_spread') / mean_of(3, 'control_spread') < 1.05
assert abs(mean_of(3, 'control_spread') / mean_of(3, 'control_range') - 1.0) < 0.05 # = expected range of 3
def test_groups_give_separate_single_and_multi_user_verdicts() -> None:
r = d.decide_window([_win('mixed'), _flat('short')], ['mixed', 'short'],
groups={'multi-user': ['mixed'], 'single-user': ['short']})
assert r['groups'] == {'multi-user': 'CANDIDATE', 'single-user': 'INCONCLUSIVE'}
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='decision cells only'):
d.decide_window([_win('a'), _flat('b')], ['a'], groups={'x': ['b']})
@pytest.mark.parametrize('decision', [[], ['a', 'b', 'c'], ['a', 'a']])
def test_one_or_two_distinct_decision_cells(decision: list[str]) -> None:
with pytest.raises(ValueError):
d.decide_window([_win('a'), _win('b'), _win('c')], decision)
def test_missing_decision_cell_refused() -> None:
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='without measurements'):
d.decide_window([_win('a')], ['z'])
PROD = '596ba1cf4e3b11be29b41a57e7f69a5d8efa4799'
def _row(window: str, value: float, *, cell: str = 'short-b1', metric: str = 'decode_tps', **extra: object) -> dict[str, Json]:
row: dict[str, Json] = {'window': window, 'cell': cell, 'metric': metric, 'value': value, 'max_tokens': 512,
'commit': PROD, 'clock_cap_mhz': 2150, 'date': '20261027', 'start': 's1-control',
'repeat': 0, 'prompt_sha256': PROMPT}
row.update(cast(dict[str, Json], extra))
return row
def test_archive_chain_spread_and_tamper(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
path = tmp_path / 'archive.jsonl'
assert d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps') is None
d.archive_append(path, [_row('W1', 60.0), _row('W1', 62.0, repeat=1)])
assert d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps') is None
d.archive_append(path, [_row('W2', 55.0)])
spread = d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps')
assert spread is not None and abs(spread - (61.0 - 55.0) / 58.0) < 1e-12
assert d.archive_head(path)['rows'] == 3
lines = path.read_text().splitlines()
assert json.loads(lines[0])['prev_sha256'] == d.GENESIS
tampered = json.loads(lines[1]); tampered['value'] = 99.0
path.write_text('\n'.join([lines[0], json.dumps(tampered, sort_keys=True), lines[2]]) + '\n')
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='chain broken'):
d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps')
@pytest.mark.parametrize('field,bad', [
('max_tokens', 0), ('max_tokens', True), ('max_tokens', 512.0), ('max_tokens', '512'),
('commit', None), ('commit', '596ba1c'), ('commit', 'abc'), ('commit', PROD.upper()),
('clock_cap_mhz', None), ('clock_cap_mhz', [2150]), ('clock_cap_mhz', 'unknown'), ('clock_cap_mhz', 2150.0),
('clock_cap_mhz', 0), ('clock_source', 'guess'), ('clock_caps_mhz', 2150), ('clock_caps_mhz', 'Unknown'),
('date', '2026-10-27'), ('date', 20261027), ('start', ''), ('start', None),
('repeat', -1), ('repeat', True), ('repeat', 1.0), ('value', 'fast'),
('prompt_sha256', None), ('prompt_sha256', 'c' * 12), ('prompt_sha256', 'C' * 64), ('prompt_members', ['e' * 64]),
('prompt_members', 'c' * 64)])
def test_archive_row_requirements(tmp_path: Path, field: str, bad: object) -> None:
"""S92 FIX 2: rows without a 40-hex production commit, the start's clock cap, date, start and repeat are refused;
DP-2: and without a 64-hex prompt identity (prompt_members must give it)."""
row = _row('w', 1.0)
row[field] = cast(Json, bad)
with pytest.raises(ValueError):
d.archive_append(tmp_path / 'a.jsonl', [row])
assert not (tmp_path / 'a.jsonl').exists() or d.archive_rows(tmp_path / 'a.jsonl') == []
@pytest.mark.parametrize('field', d.ARCHIVE_REQUIRED)
def test_archive_required_fields(tmp_path: Path, field: str) -> None:
row = _row('w', 1.0)
del row[field]
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='lacks'):
d.archive_append(tmp_path / 'a.jsonl', [row])
d.archive_append(tmp_path / 'a.jsonl', [_row('w', 1.0, clock_caps_mhz='unknown', clock_source='clock-log')])
def test_archive_prompt_identity_and_spread_never_pools_prompts(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
"""DP-2: same-day prompts differ by up to 0.59 accepted/round, so rows of two prompts never pool in a spread."""
members = ['1' * 64, '2' * 64, '3' * 64]
group = d.prompt_identity(members)
assert group == d.prompt_identity(list(reversed(members))) and d.prompt_identity(['1' * 64]) == '1' * 64
path = tmp_path / 'archive.jsonl'
d.archive_append(path, [_row('W1', 1.0, metric='accepted_per_round', prompt_sha256=group, prompt_members=members),
_row('W2', 1.1, metric='accepted_per_round', prompt_sha256=group, prompt_members=members),
_row('W3', 1.59, metric='accepted_per_round', prompt_sha256=OTHER),
_row('W4', 1.60, metric='accepted_per_round', prompt_sha256=OTHER)])
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='prompt_sha256'):
d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'accepted_per_round')
spread = d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'accepted_per_round', where={'prompt_sha256': OTHER})
assert spread is not None and abs(spread - 0.01 / 1.595) < 1e-12
assert len(d.archive_spreads(path, 'short-b1', 'accepted_per_round')) == 2
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='64-hex'):
d.prompt_identity(['1' * 64, 'x'])
def test_archive_spread_refuses_mixed_max_tokens_unless_filtered(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
path = tmp_path / 'archive.jsonl'
row = {'cell': '32k-b3', 'metric': 'ms_per_round'}
d.archive_append(path, [_row('W1', 72.0, max_tokens=1500, **row), _row('W2', 73.0, max_tokens=1500, **row),
_row('W3', 81.0, **row), _row('W4', 80.0, **row)])
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='max_tokens'):
d.archive_spread(path, '32k-b3', 'ms_per_round')
spread = d.archive_spread(path, '32k-b3', 'ms_per_round', where={'max_tokens': 512})
assert spread is not None and abs(spread - 1.0 / 80.5) < 1e-12
assert d.archive_spread(path, '32k-b3', 'ms_per_round', where={'max_tokens': 1500}) is not None
def test_archive_spread_refuses_mixed_commits_and_clocks(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
"""S92 counterexamples: rows without a commit were accepted, the spread pooled two production commits, and 2150
and 2300 MHz rows pooled silently (5.73 % pooled against 0.51 % at 2150)."""
path = tmp_path / 'archive.jsonl'
other = 'b' * 40
d.archive_append(path, [_row('W1', 40.0), _row('W2', 40.4), _row('W3', 37.0, commit=other),
_row('W4', 41.0, clock_cap_mhz=2300), _row('W5', 37.5, clock_cap_mhz=2300)])
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='commit'):
d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps')
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match='clock_cap_mhz'):
d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps', where={'commit': PROD})
spread = d.archive_spread(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps', where={'commit': PROD, 'clock_cap_mhz': 2150})
assert spread is not None and abs(spread - 0.4 / 40.2) < 1e-12
per = d.archive_spreads(path, 'short-b1', 'decode_tps')
tail = ' prompt=' + PROMPT[:12]
assert set(per) == {f'max_tokens=512 clock_cap_mhz=2150 commit={PROD[:12]}' + tail,
'max_tokens=512 clock_cap_mhz=2300 commit=' + PROD[:12] + tail,
'max_tokens=512 clock_cap_mhz=2150 commit=bbbbbbbbbbbb' + tail}
assert per[f'max_tokens=512 clock_cap_mhz=2150 commit={PROD[:12]}' + tail] == spread
def test_older_archive_is_refused_by_name(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
path = tmp_path / 'a.jsonl'
path.write_text(json.dumps({**_row('W1', 1.0), 'schema': 'dsv41-control-archive-v3', 'prev_sha256': d.GENESIS}) + '\n')
with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="expected 'dsv41-control-archive-v4'"):
d.archive_append(path, [_row('W2', 1.0)])
def _null_window_rates(paired: bool, n_control: int, trials: int) -> dict[str, float]:
"""S92 sim_corr's model: two decision cells, no real effect; ms/round cv 1.5 %, acceptance cv 12 %, tok/s derived."""
rng = random.Random(5)
def arm(n: int) -> tuple[list[float], list[float], list[float]]:
ms = [40 * (1 + rng.gauss(0, .015)) for _ in range(n)]
acc = [max(.3, 1.35 * (1 + rng.gauss(0, .12))) for _ in range(n)]
return ms, acc, [(1 + a) * 1000 / m for a, m in zip(acc, ms)]
out = {'CANDIDATE': 0, 'INCONCLUSIVE': 0, 'NOT A CANDIDATE': 0}
for _ in range(trials):
series = []
for cell in 'ab':
k, c = arm(n_control), arm(3)
for i, (metric, hib) in enumerate((('ms_per_round', False), ('accepted_per_round', True), ('decode_tps', True))):
series.append(Series(cell, metric, hib, tuple(k[i]), tuple(c[i]), paired))
out[str(d.decide_window(series, ['a', 'b'])['status'])] += 1
return {k: v / trials for k, v in out.items()}
@pytest.mark.parametrize('paired,n_control,reject_max', [(True, 3, .06), (False, 4, .08)])
def test_no_effect_window_rates(paired: bool, n_control: int, reject_max: float) -> None:
"""S92 FIX 3: with both guards a no-effect window was rejected 32.5 % (paired) / 16.0 % (unpaired) of the time.
Revision 2 (10,000 windows, seed 5): 11.4 % / 14.6 % rejected, 1.8 % / 1.9 % accepted. Revision 3 (WIN2.md):
4.0 % / 6.2 % rejected, 1.9 % / 2.0 % accepted."""
rates = _null_window_rates(paired, n_control, 3000)
assert rates['NOT A CANDIDATE'] < reject_max and rates['CANDIDATE'] > .01
def test_revision_3_power_per_cell() -> None:
"""WIN2.md power table (cv 2 %, seed 9): unpaired 4 v 3 catches a true 5 % loss about half the time (53 %; revision 2:
77 %) while a no-effect cell's false LOSS falls from 5.8 % to 1.4 %; a true 5 % gain wins 62 %."""
rng = random.Random(9)
trials = 2000
counts = {-0.05: [0, 0], 0.0: [0, 0], 0.05: [0, 0]} # effect: [LOSS, WIN]
for effect, tally in counts.items():
for _ in range(trials):
control = tuple(40 * (1 + rng.gauss(0, .02)) for _ in range(4))
cand = tuple(40 * (1 - effect) * (1 + rng.gauss(0, .02)) for _ in range(3))
verdict = d.decide_cell(Series('c', 'ms_per_round', False, control, cand, paired=False))['verdict']
tally[0] += verdict == 'LOSS'
tally[1] += verdict == 'WIN'
assert counts[-0.05][0] / trials > .45 and counts[-0.05][1] == 0
assert counts[0.0][0] / trials < .03 and counts[0.0][1] / trials < .03
assert counts[0.05][1] / trials > .5 and counts[0.05][0] == 0
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