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docs: limitations-first model card with component and MAP-34 results

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  ---
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- license: apache-2.0
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- language: en
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  base_model: microsoft/deberta-v3-base
 
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  pipeline_tag: text-classification
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  tags:
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- - education
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- - tutoring
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- - misconception-detection
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- - k-12
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- - math
 
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  ---
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  # qlm-map-classifier
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- **A DeBERTa-v3 misconception-detection classifier for K-12 mathematics tutoring, in production at Quantum Learning Machines since April 2026.** It classifies student utterances and worked steps against a taxonomy of documented math misconceptions, and serves as an *observation model* feeding a Bayesian student-state layer β€” not as a standalone judge of student thinking. We publish it, with its honest numbers, because the field's progress depends on knowing what this class of model can and cannot do.
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-
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- ## What it does in production
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-
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- Given a student turn (utterance, answer, or worked step) in a math tutoring context, the model emits misconception-class probabilities over 34 production classes drawn from QLM's 481-construct misconception ontology (423 constructs public under CC-BY-4.0 via our export API). Its outputs are **not** used to label students directly. They enter a persistent Bayesian posterior alongside triage signals that distinguish misconception-driven errors from slips and disengagement; instructional decisions condition on the accumulated state, not on any single classifier call.
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-
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- ## Evaluation β€” read the limitations first
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-
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- Evaluated on an internal MathTutorBench-derived error-detection probe (unseen, GSM8K-based). All figures below are from versioned result files.
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-
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- | Variant | Detection recall | Mistake-location accuracy | Notes |
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- |---|---|---|---|
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- | **MAP-34 (this model, deployed)** | **25.1%** | **19.0%** | conservative by design; low over-flagging |
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- | Combined-39 (research retrain, not deployed) | 86.2% | 16.3% | 8,207 mixed examples (EEDI public + expert-pattern-derived synthetic); **49.5% solution-correctness accuracy β€” severe over-flagging** |
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- | EEDI-only retrain (not deployed) | 72.1% | 15.7% | same over-flagging pattern |
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- | Bare LLM baseline (no classifier) | 78.3% | 14.7% (F1 micro) | flags nearly everything |
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-
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- **The pattern that matters:** every high-recall variant achieves its recall by over-flagging β€” calling correct or merely-slipped work "misconception." The training corpora available to this task (misconception-labeled datasets, expert-authored trigger patterns) contain, by construction, **no negative space**: no slips, no disengagement, no correct-but-unconventional work. A classifier trained only on what misconceptions look like cannot learn what they *don't* look like. This is a data-ecology finding about the field, not an implementation artifact β€” and it is why the deployed configuration is conservative and why the architecture treats the classifier as one observation source among several.
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-
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- ## The architecture lesson (ablation)
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-
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- In controlled ablation, injecting this classifier's outputs directly into a tutor model's per-turn prompt **reduced** tutoring quality (solution-correctness evaluation: 60% β†’ 55%). Classifier signal helps when integrated as evidence into persistent student state; it hurts when bolted onto generation. Build state layers, not prompt decorations.
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  ## Training data
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- Production K-12 tutoring interaction data (private; de-identified), labeled against the misconception ontology. We do not publish interaction counts or corpus composition. The ontology's public tier β€” 423 constructs with descriptions, diagnostic questions, and research citations β€” is available CC-BY-4.0 via the QLM export API.
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-
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- ## Intended use
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-
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- - Research on misconception detection, error-type triage, and tutoring-system evaluation
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- - As an observation component inside stateful student-modeling systems
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- - Reproducing and extending the negative-space findings above
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-
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- ## Out-of-scope use
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-
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- - Grading, placement, or any consequential decision about an individual student
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- - Standalone "misconception detector" products without state-level integration and human oversight
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- - Non-mathematics domains; languages other than English (untested)
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-
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- ## Bias, risks, and limitations
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-
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- Detection behavior has not been separately validated across demographic subgroups; measurement-invariance testing on authentic classroom data is planned, funded work. Low recall means many real misconceptions pass undetected; downstream systems must not treat absence of a flag as evidence of understanding. Trained on production interactions from QLM platforms; distribution shift to other tutoring contexts is untested.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  ## Citation
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- @software{qlm_map_classifier_2026,
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- author = {Quantum Learning Machines},
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- title = {qlm-map-classifier: misconception detection as an observation model},
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- year = {2026},
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- url = {https://huggingface.co/QuantumLearningMachines/qlm-map-classifier},
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- license = {Apache-2.0}
 
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  }
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-
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- ## Contact: hello@quantumlearningmachines.com Β· quantumlearningmachines.com
 
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  ---
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+ license: mit
 
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  base_model: microsoft/deberta-v3-base
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+ library_name: transformers
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  pipeline_tag: text-classification
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  tags:
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+ - education
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+ - mathematics
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+ - misconception-detection
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+ - evaluation
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+ language:
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+ - en
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  ---
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  # qlm-map-classifier
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+ A DeBERTa-v3 classifier that labels a K-12 mathematics student response with the
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+ misconception it exhibits, drawn from a 39-category grouped taxonomy derived from
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+ QLM's misconception ontology.
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+
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+ **Read the Limitations section before using this model.** Its recall is high and
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+ its precision is near chance: it flags most misconceptions present and is wrong
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+ about roughly half of what it flags. That trade-off determines where it can and
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+ cannot be used, and it is documented in full below.
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+
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+ ## Model details
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+
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+ | Field | Value |
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+ |---|---|
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+ | Base model | `microsoft/deberta-v3-base` |
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+ | Task | Multi-class classification over 39 grouped misconception categories, including a negative class |
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+ | Unit of prediction | One student-response utterance |
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+ | Epochs | 5 |
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+ | Batch size | 16 |
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+ | Learning rate | 2e-5 |
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+ | Max sequence length | 256 |
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+ | Warmup ratio | 0.1 |
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+ | In production since | April 2026 |
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  ## Training data
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+ | Field | Value |
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+ |---|---|
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+ | Training examples | ~8,200 |
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+ | Categories | 39 (grouped) |
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+ | Split | 85% train / 10% validation / 5% test |
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+ | Sources | EEDI misconception-labelled student responses (4,370 real student responses); QLM subject verticals; QLM misconception graph |
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+
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+ **On the example count.** The figure is stated as approximately 8,200 rather than
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+ precisely, and that imprecision is deliberate. The number appears in the training
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+ results record as a free-text descriptor rather than as a count derived from a
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+ dataset manifest, and it cannot be reproduced from any current build script. A
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+ later rebuild of the training data on disk contains 10,530 examples under a
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+ different category grouping. Anyone needing an exact count for replication should
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+ treat this as unresolved.
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+
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+ EEDI's 4,370 responses are authentic student work. The remaining examples are
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+ derived from QLM's subject verticals and misconception graph rather than
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+ collected from students.
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+
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+ ## Evaluation
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+
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+ Component models are reported alongside the deployed combined model, at the same
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+ precision. The weakest figures are the most decision-relevant.
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+
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+ | Variant | Examples | Categories | Accuracy | Precision | Recall | F1 | Mistake location |
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+ |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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+ | **Combined-39 (deployed)** | ~8,200 | 39 | **49.5%** | **49.7%** | **86.2%** | **63.1%** | **16.3%** |
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+ | EEDI-only component | 4,370 | 36 | 52.7% | β€” | 72.1% | 60.4% | β€” |
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+ | Retrained component | 308 | 23 | 50.2% | β€” | **0.5%** | β€” | 12.9% |
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+ | MAP-34 detection | β€” | 34 | β€” | β€” | **25.1%** | β€” | β€” |
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+
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+ ### How to read these numbers
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+
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+ **The deployed model over-flags.** 86.2% recall against 49.7% precision means it
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+ catches most misconceptions that are present while being incorrect on
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+ approximately half of its positive predictions. It is a high-sensitivity,
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+ low-specificity instrument.
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+
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+ **Accuracy of 49.5% is above chance but its baseline is undocumented.** Uniform
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+ chance on a 39-class problem is 2.6%, so 49.5% is far from random. However, the
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+ class distribution of the training and test sets is not documented (see
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+ Limitations), so a majority-class baseline cannot be computed β€” and without it,
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+ 49.5% cannot be interpreted as skill rather than class imbalance. This is a real
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+ gap, not a rhetorical hedge.
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+
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+ **The retrained component is functionally non-detecting.** 0.5% recall on 308
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+ examples across 23 categories means that component almost never fires. It is
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+ reported here because it contributes to the deployed combined model and its
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+ behaviour is a material limitation.
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+
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+ **MAP-34 detection recall of 25.1% is the figure to weigh** if the intended use
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+ is detection against the MAP taxonomy rather than the grouped-39 taxonomy. The
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+ model misses roughly three quarters of those cases.
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+
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+ ### Downstream integration result
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+
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+ Injecting this classifier's per-turn output into a generative tutor's prompt
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+ produced **no measurable improvement** in the tutor's correction match rate: 60%
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+ without labels versus 55% with, on 100 paired math word problems, judged by
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+ automated string matching. No significance test was computed; at n=100 a
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+ 5-point difference is within sampling error, and the result should not be cited
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+ as evidence of degradation. The design conclusion drawn internally was that a
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+ noisy per-turn signal is better integrated across a session into a state
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+ estimate than injected turn by turn β€” an architectural inference, not a result
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+ this experiment establishes.
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+
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+ ## Limitations
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+
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+ 1. **Precision is near chance.** 49.7% on positive predictions. Roughly half of
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+ all flags are incorrect.
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+ 2. **Mistake-location performance is poor.** 16.3% on the deployed model, 12.9%
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+ on the retrained component.
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+ 3. **MAP-34 detection recall is 25.1%.** Approximately three quarters of MAP-taxonomy
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+ cases are missed.
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+ 4. **One component has 0.5% recall** and effectively never fires.
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+ 5. **Class distribution is not documented.** No majority-class baseline can be
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+ computed, so accuracy cannot be separated from class imbalance.
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+ 6. **No inter-annotator agreement is documented.** The label reliability of the
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+ non-EEDI training examples is unmeasured, so the ceiling on achievable
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+ performance is unknown.
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+ 7. **Exact training-set size is not reproducible.** See the note under Training
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+ data.
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+ 8. **Per-class performance is not published.** Only aggregate figures exist, so
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+ which of the 39 categories the model handles well is unknown.
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+ 9. **No disaggregation by learner profile.** Performance for English learners,
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+ students with learning differences, or students behind grade level is
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+ unmeasured. Differential performance across these groups is plausible and
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+ untested.
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+ 10. **Mathematics and English only.** No evaluation outside English-language K-12
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+ mathematics.
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+ 11. **Majority of training data is not authentic student work.** 4,370 of ~8,200
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+ examples come from EEDI; the remainder are derived from internal verticals
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+ and the misconception graph.
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+
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+ ## Out-of-scope uses
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+
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+ - **Any determination about an individual student.** Grading, placement,
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+ diagnosis, intervention assignment, or referral. With 49.7% precision, roughly
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+ half of such determinations would be wrong and none would be contestable.
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+ - **Any evaluation of a teacher.**
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+ - **Unsupervised triage** where a flag triggers action without human review. The
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+ over-flagging behaviour makes a human reviewer necessary, not optional.
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+ - **Per-turn injection into a generative tutor's prompt** β€” see the integration
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+ result above.
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+ - **Detection against the MAP taxonomy**, given 25.1% recall.
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+ - **Non-mathematics subjects**, or non-English responses.
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+
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+ ## Intended uses
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+
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+ Research on automated misconception detection; a baseline for misconception
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+ benchmarks; aggregate, model-level analysis where the false-positive rate is
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+ tolerable; and a noisy observation feeding a session-level state estimator that
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+ integrates many signals rather than acting on any single one β€” the use for which
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+ it was built.
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  ## Citation
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+ ```
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+ @misc{qlm-map-classifier-2026,
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+ title = {qlm-map-classifier: a DeBERTa-v3 misconception classifier for K-12 mathematics},
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+ author = {Srivastava, Kumar Sumbhav},
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+ year = {2026},
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+ note = {Quantum Learning Machines, Inc.},
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+ url = {https://huggingface.co/QuantumLearningMachines/qlm-map-classifier}
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  }
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+ ```