basal-2.0-4.5B / CALIBRATION.json
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{
"prompt": 2,
"orders": 1,
"method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"temperature_per_prim": {
"choice": 1.3939382634489992,
"noul": 2.82842712474619,
"score": 2.44810708660931
},
"temperature_per_bucket": {
"choice": {
"2-10": 1.8340080864093422,
"11-26": 1.241857812073484,
"27-255": 1.059463094359295
}
},
"thresholds": {
"0.01": {
"confidence": null,
"method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"per_type": {
"choice": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"noul": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"score": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
}
},
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"0.05": {
"confidence": null,
"method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"per_type": {
"choice": {
"confidence": 0.9322699589043795,
"heldout_coverage": 0.3940542361462018,
"heldout_error": 0.023936738619363074
},
"noul": {
"confidence": 0.8915736513972552,
"heldout_coverage": 0.37426679280983915,
"heldout_error": 0.020222446916076886
},
"score": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.01175285426460712,
"heldout_error": 0.22857142857142854
}
},
"heldout_coverage": 0.33232358345334456,
"heldout_error": 0.02390914524805743
}
},
"gates": {
"ece_lofo": {
"choice": {
"pooled": 0.012308234464218113,
"n": 11874,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
},
"noul": {
"pooled": 0.03186722948382228,
"n": 5285,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
},
"score": {
"pooled": 0.030276060779249152,
"n": 2978,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
}
},
"ece_worst_fold": 0.1014424717632049,
"worst_fold": "agent",
"automated_at": {
"0.01": 0.0,
"0.05": 0.33232358345334456
},
"automated_error": {
"0.01": null,
"0.05": 0.02390914524805743
},
"note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family"
},
"test": {
"T": {
"choice": {
"acc": 0.7870136432541688,
"ece": 0.014067322629837065,
"n": 11874
},
"noul": {
"acc": 0.8306527909176916,
"ece": 0.03343366640192696,
"n": 5285
},
"score": {
"acc": 0.6040967092008059,
"ece": 0.02988934980023047,
"n": 2978
},
"all": {
"acc": 0.771415801757958,
"ece": 0.01582616023538169,
"n": 20137
}
},
"note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit"
},
"n": {
"fit": 3560,
"many": 1500,
"eval": 20137
},
"engine": "fast",
"fitted_on": {
"split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)",
"orders": 1,
"readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, bf16"
},
"certified_on": "the same split",
"evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out"
}