basal-2.0-mini-FP8 / CALIBRATION.json
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{
"prompt": 2,
"orders": 1,
"method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"temperature_per_prim": {
"choice": 1.2599210498948732,
"noul": 1.8340080864093422,
"score": 1.9713263972803747
},
"temperature_per_bucket": {
"choice": {
"2-10": 1.6339154532410998,
"11-26": 0.9576032806985735,
"27-255": 0.8908987181403392
}
},
"thresholds": {
"0.01": {
"confidence": null,
"method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"per_type": {
"choice": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"noul": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"score": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
}
},
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"0.05": {
"confidence": null,
"method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"per_type": {
"choice": {
"confidence": 0.9794658159140632,
"heldout_coverage": 0.07419572174498905,
"heldout_error": 0.009080590238365494
},
"noul": {
"confidence": 0.9139974126226222,
"heldout_coverage": 0.13509933774834437,
"heldout_error": 0.03501400560224088
},
"score": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
}
},
"heldout_coverage": 0.07920742911059245,
"heldout_error": 0.020689655172413834
}
},
"gates": {
"ece_lofo": {
"choice": {
"pooled": 0.023511479853082662,
"n": 11874,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
},
"noul": {
"pooled": 0.027070025115957533,
"n": 5285,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
},
"score": {
"pooled": 0.027462710825686312,
"n": 2978,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
}
},
"ece_worst_fold": 0.10555608237660483,
"worst_fold": "agent",
"automated_at": {
"0.01": 0.0,
"0.05": 0.07920742911059245
},
"automated_error": {
"0.01": null,
"0.05": 0.020689655172413834
},
"note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family"
},
"test": {
"T": {
"choice": {
"acc": 0.6942058278591882,
"ece": 0.022368741135958967,
"n": 11874
},
"noul": {
"acc": 0.7458845789971618,
"ece": 0.02910514429567303,
"n": 5285
},
"score": {
"acc": 0.5218267293485561,
"ece": 0.027385410166595566,
"n": 2978
},
"all": {
"acc": 0.6822764066146894,
"ece": 0.017802099792149573,
"n": 20137
}
},
"note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit"
},
"n": {
"fit": 3560,
"many": 1500,
"eval": 20137
},
"engine": "fast",
"fitted_on": {
"split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)",
"orders": 1,
"readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, ModelOpt FP8 package (recipe b2)"
},
"certified_on": "the same split",
"evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out"
}