basal-2.0-mini / CALIBRATION.o2.json
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{
"prompt": 2,
"orders": 2,
"method": "temperature per question type and per option-count bucket (choice), by NLL, fitted on the out-of-distribution calibration split only; thresholds per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"temperature_per_prim": {
"choice": 1.1721576888192515,
"noul": 1.8077142767822016,
"score": 1.7817974362806785
},
"temperature_per_bucket": {
"choice": {
"2-10": 1.5874010519681994,
"11-26": 0.8655365610061431,
"27-255": 0.805245165974627
}
},
"thresholds": {
"0.01": {
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"method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"per_type": {
"choice": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"noul": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"score": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
}
},
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
},
"0.05": {
"confidence": null,
"method": "per type: the most permissive threshold whose accepted calibration decisions have a one-sided 95% Clopper-Pearson upper bound <= max_error; a type without one defers",
"per_type": {
"choice": {
"confidence": 0.9886388083772373,
"heldout_coverage": 0.04135085059794509,
"heldout_error": 0.010183299389002087
},
"noul": {
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"heldout_error": 0.0035149384885764245
},
"score": {
"confidence": null,
"heldout_coverage": 0.0,
"heldout_error": null
}
},
"heldout_coverage": 0.05263941997318369,
"heldout_error": 0.006603773584905714
}
},
"gates": {
"ece_lofo": {
"choice": {
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"n": 11874,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
},
"noul": {
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"n": 5285,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
},
"score": {
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"n": 2978,
"gate": 0.05,
"pass": true
}
},
"ece_worst_fold": 0.10641607620521439,
"worst_fold": "agent",
"automated_at": {
"0.01": 0.0,
"0.05": 0.05263941997318369
},
"automated_error": {
"0.01": null,
"0.05": 0.006603773584905714
},
"note": "held-out numbers: every evaluation row predicted by the fit without its family"
},
"test": {
"T": {
"choice": {
"acc": 0.7091965639211724,
"ece": 0.03517645160708048,
"n": 11874
},
"noul": {
"acc": 0.7496688741721854,
"ece": 0.021456977493178177,
"n": 5285
},
"score": {
"acc": 0.5204835460040296,
"ece": 0.008651888864610293,
"n": 2978
},
"all": {
"acc": 0.6919104136663853,
"ece": 0.02142799871209621,
"n": 20137
}
},
"note": "evaluation pool (development and test splits), full fit"
},
"n": {
"fit": 3560,
"many": 1500,
"eval": 20137
},
"engine": "fast",
"fitted_on": {
"split": "out-of-distribution calibration split (sealed-seed BH-, JDI- and agent-shaped families, many-option items)",
"orders": 2,
"readouts": "basal-serve --mode fast, bf16"
},
"certified_on": "the same split",
"evaluated_on": "development and test splits, leave-one-family-out and leave-one-language-out"
}