| { |
| "version": "1.13", |
| "top_choices": [ |
| { |
| "strategy": "Roll then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "strike": 60, |
| "expiry": "2027-03-19", |
| "roll_credit": -730.6899999999998, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 484.28000000000003, |
| "net_debit_usd": 730.69, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "improvement": 683.3220163377537, |
| "mean": 4463.352016337753, |
| "p10": 4059.540945261178, |
| "p90": 4810.745726323624, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9816666666666667, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 6272.012036800122, |
| "option_purchase": -2292.9400204623676, |
| "option_sale": 484.28 |
| }, |
| "expire_worthless": { |
| "strategy": "Roll then expire worthless", |
| "exit_mode": "expire", |
| "days": null, |
| "expiry": "2027-03-19", |
| "strike": 60, |
| "mean": -730.69, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 484.28000000000003 |
| }, |
| "stock_retained": 100, |
| "replacement_buyback_usd": 0, |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "option_profit_usd": -30.690000000000055, |
| "net_profit_usd": null, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 484.28000000000003, |
| "net_debit_usd": 730.69, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "assumption": "Conditional on replacement call expiring worthless with no assignment; stock retained, stock gain/loss excluded.", |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": -230.69000000000005, |
| "total_pl_usd": 69.30999999999995, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": -30.690000000000055 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 2158.3520163377534, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1958.3520163377534, |
| "total_pl_usd": 2258.3520163377534, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 2158.3520163377534 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Roll then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "strike": 55, |
| "expiry": "2026-12-18", |
| "roll_credit": -919.56, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 295.40999999999997, |
| "net_debit_usd": 919.5600000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "improvement": 659.8143277344752, |
| "mean": 4439.844327734475, |
| "p10": 4228.272476692483, |
| "p90": 4534.709795025288, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9833333333333333, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 6272.012036800122, |
| "option_purchase": -2127.5777090656466, |
| "option_sale": 295.41 |
| }, |
| "expire_worthless": { |
| "strategy": "Roll then expire worthless", |
| "exit_mode": "expire", |
| "days": null, |
| "expiry": "2026-12-18", |
| "strike": 55, |
| "mean": -919.5600000000001, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 295.40999999999997 |
| }, |
| "stock_retained": 100, |
| "replacement_buyback_usd": 0, |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "option_profit_usd": -219.56000000000006, |
| "net_profit_usd": null, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 295.40999999999997, |
| "net_debit_usd": 919.5600000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "assumption": "Conditional on replacement call expiring worthless with no assignment; stock retained, stock gain/loss excluded.", |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": -419.56000000000006, |
| "total_pl_usd": -119.56000000000006, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": -219.56000000000006 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 2134.844327734475, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1934.844327734475, |
| "total_pl_usd": 2234.844327734475, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 2134.844327734475 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Roll then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "strike": 52, |
| "expiry": "2026-11-20", |
| "roll_credit": -978.92, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 236.05, |
| "net_debit_usd": 978.9200000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "improvement": 474.93521040898577, |
| "mean": 4254.9652104089855, |
| "p10": 4207.890406573108, |
| "p90": 4369.205071585504, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.985, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 5233.8852104089865, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.9700000000003, |
| "option_sale": 236.05 |
| }, |
| "expire_worthless": { |
| "strategy": "Roll then expire worthless", |
| "exit_mode": "expire", |
| "days": null, |
| "expiry": "2026-11-20", |
| "strike": 52, |
| "mean": -978.9200000000001, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 236.05 |
| }, |
| "stock_retained": 100, |
| "replacement_buyback_usd": 0, |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "option_profit_usd": -278.9200000000001, |
| "net_profit_usd": null, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 236.05, |
| "net_debit_usd": 978.9200000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "assumption": "Conditional on replacement call expiring worthless with no assignment; stock retained, stock gain/loss excluded.", |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": -478.9200000000001, |
| "total_pl_usd": -178.92000000000007, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": -278.9200000000001 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1949.9652104089855, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1749.9652104089855, |
| "total_pl_usd": 2049.9652104089855, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1949.9652104089855 |
| } |
| ], |
| "profit_reference_available": true, |
| "search": { |
| "minimum_strike": 50.0, |
| "minimum_exclusive": true, |
| "maximum_strike": null, |
| "first_expiry": "2026-10-29", |
| "last_expiry": "2028-01-15" |
| }, |
| "initial_purchase_price_usd": 30, |
| "minimum_stock_sale_price_usd": 33.0, |
| "constraint": "Rank the three best net profits regardless of profit sign or sale-floor eligibility. Sale-floor flags remain visible; strike/expiry and quote-quality filters remain enforced. Future market prices are not guaranteed.", |
| "rows": [ |
| { |
| "strategy": "Roll then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "strike": 60, |
| "expiry": "2027-03-19", |
| "roll_credit": -730.6899999999998, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 484.28000000000003, |
| "net_debit_usd": 730.69, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "improvement": 683.3220163377537, |
| "mean": 4463.352016337753, |
| "p10": 4059.540945261178, |
| "p90": 4810.745726323624, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9816666666666667, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 6272.012036800122, |
| "option_purchase": -2292.9400204623676, |
| "option_sale": 484.28 |
| }, |
| "expire_worthless": { |
| "strategy": "Roll then expire worthless", |
| "exit_mode": "expire", |
| "days": null, |
| "expiry": "2027-03-19", |
| "strike": 60, |
| "mean": -730.69, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 484.28000000000003 |
| }, |
| "stock_retained": 100, |
| "replacement_buyback_usd": 0, |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "option_profit_usd": -30.690000000000055, |
| "net_profit_usd": null, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 484.28000000000003, |
| "net_debit_usd": 730.69, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "assumption": "Conditional on replacement call expiring worthless with no assignment; stock retained, stock gain/loss excluded.", |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": -230.69000000000005, |
| "total_pl_usd": 69.30999999999995, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": -30.690000000000055 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 2158.3520163377534, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1958.3520163377534, |
| "total_pl_usd": 2258.3520163377534, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 2158.3520163377534 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Roll then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "strike": 55, |
| "expiry": "2026-12-18", |
| "roll_credit": -919.56, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 295.40999999999997, |
| "net_debit_usd": 919.5600000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "improvement": 659.8143277344752, |
| "mean": 4439.844327734475, |
| "p10": 4228.272476692483, |
| "p90": 4534.709795025288, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9833333333333333, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 6272.012036800122, |
| "option_purchase": -2127.5777090656466, |
| "option_sale": 295.41 |
| }, |
| "expire_worthless": { |
| "strategy": "Roll then expire worthless", |
| "exit_mode": "expire", |
| "days": null, |
| "expiry": "2026-12-18", |
| "strike": 55, |
| "mean": -919.5600000000001, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 295.40999999999997 |
| }, |
| "stock_retained": 100, |
| "replacement_buyback_usd": 0, |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "option_profit_usd": -219.56000000000006, |
| "net_profit_usd": null, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 295.40999999999997, |
| "net_debit_usd": 919.5600000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "assumption": "Conditional on replacement call expiring worthless with no assignment; stock retained, stock gain/loss excluded.", |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": -419.56000000000006, |
| "total_pl_usd": -119.56000000000006, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": -219.56000000000006 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 2134.844327734475, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1934.844327734475, |
| "total_pl_usd": 2234.844327734475, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 2134.844327734475 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Roll then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "strike": 52, |
| "expiry": "2026-11-20", |
| "roll_credit": -978.92, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 236.05, |
| "net_debit_usd": 978.9200000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "improvement": 474.93521040898577, |
| "mean": 4254.9652104089855, |
| "p10": 4207.890406573108, |
| "p90": 4369.205071585504, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.985, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 5233.8852104089865, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.9700000000003, |
| "option_sale": 236.05 |
| }, |
| "expire_worthless": { |
| "strategy": "Roll then expire worthless", |
| "exit_mode": "expire", |
| "days": null, |
| "expiry": "2026-11-20", |
| "strike": 52, |
| "mean": -978.9200000000001, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 236.05 |
| }, |
| "stock_retained": 100, |
| "replacement_buyback_usd": 0, |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "option_profit_usd": -278.9200000000001, |
| "net_profit_usd": null, |
| "roll_funding": { |
| "held_buyback_usd": 1214.97, |
| "replacement_premium_usd": 236.05, |
| "net_debit_usd": 978.9200000000001, |
| "net_credit_usd": 0, |
| "note": "Estimated net rollover debit before fees, assuming simultaneous legs. Does not measure broker buying power, account cash shortfall or margin requirement." |
| }, |
| "assumption": "Conditional on replacement call expiring worthless with no assignment; stock retained, stock gain/loss excluded.", |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": -478.9200000000001, |
| "total_pl_usd": -178.92000000000007, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": -278.9200000000001 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1949.9652104089855, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1749.9652104089855, |
| "total_pl_usd": 2049.9652104089855, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1949.9652104089855 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Wait then close", |
| "days": 30, |
| "improvement": 158.2832074222847, |
| "mean": 3938.3132074222844, |
| "p10": 3917.775433211829, |
| "p90": 3950.2061788078686, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9966666666666667, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 6272.012036800122, |
| "option_purchase": -2333.6988293778363, |
| "option_sale": 0.0 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1633.313207422285, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1433.313207422285, |
| "total_pl_usd": 1733.313207422285, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1633.313207422285 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Wait then close", |
| "days": 21, |
| "improvement": 135.39570919752168, |
| "mean": 3915.4257091975214, |
| "p10": 3872.446684743154, |
| "p90": 3944.2700229749807, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9916666666666667, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 5860.4520520283095, |
| "option_purchase": -1945.0263428307876, |
| "option_sale": 0.0 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1610.4257091975214, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1410.4257091975214, |
| "total_pl_usd": 1710.4257091975214, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1610.4257091975214 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Wait then close", |
| "days": 10, |
| "improvement": 79.46370457878038, |
| "mean": 3859.49370457878, |
| "p10": 3801.3192937040776, |
| "p90": 3907.470275399532, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.9333333333333333, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 5392.535294539811, |
| "option_purchase": -1533.0415899610307, |
| "option_sale": 0.0 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1554.4937045787801, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1354.4937045787801, |
| "total_pl_usd": 1654.4937045787801, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1554.4937045787801 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Wait then close", |
| "days": 5, |
| "improvement": 44.69279602985398, |
| "mean": 3824.7227960298537, |
| "p10": 3773.1425880905877, |
| "p90": 3867.1060640350393, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.8783333333333333, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 5197.018757116924, |
| "option_purchase": -1372.2959610870694, |
| "option_sale": 0.0 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1519.7227960298533, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1319.7227960298533, |
| "total_pl_usd": 1619.7227960298533, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1519.7227960298533 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Wait then close", |
| "days": 1, |
| "improvement": 8.622508700056187, |
| "mean": 3788.652508700056, |
| "p10": 3750.223709327598, |
| "p90": 3816.422268528465, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0.64, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 5030.032617265043, |
| "option_purchase": -1241.3801085649868, |
| "option_sale": 0.0 |
| }, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1483.6525087000555, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1283.6525087000555, |
| "total_pl_usd": 1583.6525087000555, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1483.6525087000555 |
| }, |
| { |
| "strategy": "Close now", |
| "days": 0, |
| "mean": 3780.0299999999997, |
| "p10": 3780.0299999999997, |
| "p90": 3780.0299999999997, |
| "probability_beating_close": 0, |
| "improvement": 0, |
| "cash_flows": { |
| "stock_sale": 4995.0, |
| "option_purchase": -1214.97, |
| "option_sale": 0 |
| }, |
| "eligible": true, |
| "sale_floor_pass_rate": 1.0, |
| "net_profit_usd": 1475.0299999999997, |
| "realized_pl_usd": 300, |
| "realized_pl_partial": false, |
| "unrealized_pl_usd": 1275.0299999999997, |
| "total_pl_usd": 1575.0299999999997, |
| "current_cycle_pl_usd": 1475.0299999999997 |
| } |
| ], |
| "baseline": 3780.0299999999997, |
| "excluded": 2, |
| "paths": 600, |
| "seed": 42, |
| "history_count": 64, |
| "history_start": "2026-07-30", |
| "history_end": "2026-10-27", |
| "realized_volatility": 0.36974672706449635, |
| "held_implied_volatility": 0.6499977304752103, |
| "objective": "Highest simulated mean discounted USD liquidation wealth; not a validated profit forecast", |
| "assumptions": [ |
| "Three-month daily-return bootstrap; historical drift retained", |
| "Constant calibrated volatility; European call approximation; no dividends or early assignment", |
| "Today's spreads held constant; future execution fees excluded; recorded historical fees included; no taxes; USD retained", |
| "Rollover credit is cash received, not profit; remaining option liability is deducted at the common horizon", |
| "No historical option-chain backtest; probabilities describe model paths only" |
| ] |
| } |
|
|
