bayes_sc outputs (math_test_hard, 2026-10-25)

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only.json

@@ -0,0 +1,412 @@
+{
+ "ref": {
+  "acc": 0.9405767817781043,
+  "equiv": 4283.8179463629685
+ },
+ "baselines": {
+  "agree2": {
+   "acc": 0.9405767817781043,
+   "equiv": 4283.8179463629685,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0
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+  },
+  "SC@1": {
+   "acc": 0.7907788390889052,
+   "equiv": 1124.9408523144746,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.14979794268919913,
+    -0.16256429096252756,
+    -0.1369374540778839
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@2": {
+   "acc": 0.8118111682586333,
+   "equiv": 2249.881704628949,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.12876561351947097,
+    -0.14226671565025717,
+    -0.11544819985304923
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@3": {
+   "acc": 0.8444158706833211,
+   "equiv": 3374.822556943424,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.09616091109478325,
+    -0.10911324393828067,
+    -0.08357825128581925
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@4": {
+   "acc": 0.8553453343130052,
+   "equiv": 4499.763409257898,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.0852314474650992,
+    -0.09809652828802351,
+    -0.07274063188831742
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@5": {
+   "acc": 0.8630602498163116,
+   "equiv": 5624.704261572373,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.0775165319617928,
+    -0.09056070903747244,
+    -0.06493387215282881
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@6": {
+   "acc": 0.8693056576047025,
+   "equiv": 6749.645113886848,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.07127112417340191,
+    -0.08440714548126378,
+    -0.05905584129316679
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@7": {
+   "acc": 0.8717854518736223,
+   "equiv": 7874.585966201323,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.068791329904482,
+    -0.08174136664217486,
+    -0.05648190668626012
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@8": {
+   "acc": 0.8761021307861866,
+   "equiv": 8999.526818515797,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.06447465099191771,
+    -0.07788850110213079,
+    -0.05143277002204261
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.8)": {
+   "acc": 0.8714180749448934,
+   "equiv": 4328.9513225569435,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.06915870683321088,
+    -0.08238886847905952,
+    -0.05639235855988244
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.8)+think@2": {
+   "acc": 0.9405767817781043,
+   "equiv": 4283.8179463629685,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.8)+think@3": {
+   "acc": 0.9403930933137399,
+   "equiv": 4758.662803085966,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.0001836884643644379,
+    -0.0005510653930933138,
+    0.0
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+  "AC(0.8)+think@4": {
+   "acc": 0.9340558412931668,
+   "equiv": 4695.218185157972,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.006520940484937546,
+    -0.009184423218221896,
+    -0.004132990448199853
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.9)": {
+   "acc": 0.8757347538574578,
+   "equiv": 6046.053545187362,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.06484202792064658,
+    -0.07834542615723733,
+    -0.05198383541513593
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.9)+think@2": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 7567.180749448935,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
+   ]
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+  "AC(0.9)+think@3": {
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+   "equiv": 5892.238997060985,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.010929463629684055,
+    0.016623806024981633
+   ]
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+  "AC(0.9)+think@4": {
+   "acc": 0.9540778839088905,
+   "equiv": 6471.090558412931,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.013501102130786187,
+    0.010745775165319618,
+    0.0162587252020573
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+  },
+  "AC(0.95)": {
+   "acc": 0.8760102865540044,
+   "equiv": 6970.480804555474,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.06456649522409992,
+    -0.07806989346069067,
+    -0.05152461425422483
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.95)+think@2": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 7567.180749448935,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.95)+think@3": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 8692.121601763409,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.95)+think@4": {
+   "acc": 0.9572005878030859,
+   "equiv": 7287.702479794269,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.016623806024981633,
+    0.012950036737692874,
+    0.020575404114621592
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+  "AC(0.99)": {
+   "acc": 0.8761021307861866,
+   "equiv": 8168.442964731815,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.06447465099191771,
+    -0.07788850110213079,
+    -0.05143277002204261
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.99)+think@2": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 7567.180749448935,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
+   ]
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+  "AC(0.99)+think@3": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 8692.121601763409,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.99)+think@4": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 9817.062454077884,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
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+  "always think": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
+   "equiv": 5317.299044819985,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
+   ]
+  }
+ },
+ "frontier": [
+  {
+   "R": 4000,
+   "acc": 0.7909625275532697,
+   "equiv": 1127.0635378398238
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 8000,
+   "acc": 0.7910543717854519,
+   "equiv": 1127.5903196179281
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 16000,
+   "acc": 0.934974283614989,
+   "equiv": 3727.5320536370314
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 24000,
+   "acc": 0.9424136664217487,
+   "equiv": 3919.199797942689
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 32000,
+   "acc": 0.9510470242468773,
+   "equiv": 4193.461278471712
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 48000,
+   "acc": 0.955088170462895,
+   "equiv": 4461.668038207201
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 64000,
+   "acc": 0.955547391623806,
+   "equiv": 4540.97211609111
+  },
+  {
+   "R": 96000,
+   "acc": 0.9568332108743571,
+   "equiv": 4838.5335598824395
+  }
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+ "matched": [
+  {
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+   "acc": 0.9523328434974284,
+   "equiv": 4263.571473181484,
+   "R": [
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+   "actions": {
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+    "think:q32b_think@0": 3544,
+    "stop@3": 280,
+    "stop@1": 2549,
+    "stop@8": 39,
+    "think:q32b_think@2": 794,
+    "think:q32b_think@5": 2,
+    "stop@5": 108,
+    "think:q32b_think@3": 127,
+    "stop@6": 10,
+    "stop@7": 15,
+    "think:q32b_think@6": 4,
+    "think:q32b_think@4": 5,
+    "think:q32b_think@7": 4,
+    "think:q32b_think@8": 8,
+    "stop@4": 50
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+  {
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+    "think:q32b_think@3": 180,
+    "think:q32b_think@2": 818,
+    "stop@2": 3229,
+    "stop@4": 40,
+    "stop@1": 2468,
+    "think:q32b_think@0": 3712,
+    "stop@6": 20,
+    "stop@5": 49,
+    "think:q32b_think@4": 2,
+    "stop@8": 7,
+    "think:q32b_think@5": 2,
+    "think:q32b_think@6": 15,
+    "stop@7": 8,
+    "think:q32b_think@8": 3,
+    "think:q32b_think@7": 2
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+  {
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+   "actions": {
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+    "stop@8": 25,
+    "stop@6": 31,
+    "think:q32b_think@2": 731,
+    "think:q32b_think@5": 14,
+    "stop@5": 152,
+    "stop@3": 423,
+    "think:q32b_think@7": 11,
+    "stop@4": 86,
+    "think:q32b_think@4": 36,
+    "think:q32b_think@6": 8,
+    "stop@7": 14,
+    "think:q32b_think@8": 6,
+    "think:q32b_think@3": 73
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+    "stop@2": 3248,
+    "think:q32b_think@2": 874,
+    "think:q32b_think@0": 3632,
+    "stop@4": 49,
+    "stop@5": 60,
+    "stop@8": 17,
+    "stop@7": 6,
+    "stop@6": 5,
+    "stop@3": 208,
+    "think:q32b_think@3": 108,
+    "think:q32b_think@8": 2,
+    "think:q32b_think@4": 5,
+    "think:q32b_think@7": 1
+   }
+  }
+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:35:01,405 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> q32b_think): acc 0.941 equiv 4284
+  agree2                 acc 0.941 equiv   4284 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3159) | vs agree2 -15.0 [-16.3, -13.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2034) | vs agree2 -12.9 [-14.2, -11.5]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 (  -909) | vs agree2 -9.6 [-10.9, -8.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  +216) | vs agree2 -8.5 [-9.8, -7.3]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 ( +1341) | vs agree2 -7.8 [-9.1, -6.5]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2466) | vs agree2 -7.1 [-8.4, -5.9]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3591) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4716) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (   +45) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.941 equiv   4284 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.940 equiv   4759 (  +475) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.934 equiv   4695 (  +411) | vs agree2 -0.7 [-0.9, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1762) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.954 equiv   5892 ( +1608) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.954 equiv   6471 ( +2187) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.6]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2687) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv   8692 ( +4408) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.957 equiv   7288 ( +3004) | vs agree2 +1.7 [+1.3, +2.1]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3885) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv   8692 ( +4408) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.960 equiv   9817 ( +5533) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  always think           acc 0.960 equiv   5317 ( +1033) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1127
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1128
+R   16000: acc 0.935 equiv   3728
+R   24000: acc 0.942 equiv   3919
+R   32000: acc 0.951 equiv   4193
+R   48000: acc 0.955 equiv   4462
+R   64000: acc 0.956 equiv   4541
+R   96000: acc 0.957 equiv   4839
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.952 equiv 4264 (-20) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.6, +1.8] | R [48694, 34234] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3544, 'stop@2': 3349, 'stop@1': 2549, 'think:q32b_think@2': 794, 'stop@3': 280, 'think:q32b_think@3': 127, 'stop@5': 108, 'stop@4': 50}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.955 equiv 4350 (+67) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+0.9, +2.0] | R [40390, 42770] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3712, 'stop@2': 3229, 'stop@1': 2468, 'think:q32b_think@2': 818, 'stop@3': 333, 'think:q32b_think@3': 180, 'stop@5': 49, 'stop@4': 40}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.954 equiv 4341 (+57) | vs agree2 +1.3 [+0.8, +2.0] | R [48680, 32562] | {'stop@2': 3758, 'think:q32b_think@0': 3560, 'stop@1': 1960, 'think:q32b_think@2': 731, 'stop@3': 423, 'stop@5': 152, 'stop@4': 86, 'think:q32b_think@3': 73}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.954 equiv 4256 (-28) | vs agree2 +1.3 [+0.7, +1.9] | R [37481, 35076] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3632, 'stop@2': 3248, 'stop@1': 2673, 'think:q32b_think@2': 874, 'stop@3': 208, 'think:q32b_think@3': 108, 'stop@5': 60, 'stop@4': 49}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
+{
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+ "host": "ws006600",
+ "user": "vlad.smirnov",
+ "cwd": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos",
+ "argv": [
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+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat",
+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "q32b_think=workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json",
+  "--out",
+  "workdir/bayes/sc_32only.json"
+ ],
+ "git": {
+  "commit": "0a7204adddcc8e6f8fb07f1c3871ba31f3332689",
+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
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+   "sha256": "4eef554b7fa4edff6cf11b63aadb44267d211bc25285eb260dcc1b45d2cf3a1f"
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+ "finished_at": "2026-10-25T11:35:35+04:00",
+ "wall_secs": 36.2,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only_c4.json

@@ -0,0 +1,405 @@
+{
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+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only_c4.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:36:34,770 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> q32b_think): acc 0.941 equiv 10386
+  agree2                 acc 0.941 equiv  10386 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -9261) | vs agree2 -15.0 [-16.3, -13.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -8136) | vs agree2 -12.9 [-14.2, -11.5]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -7011) | vs agree2 -9.6 [-10.9, -8.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 ( -5886) | vs agree2 -8.5 [-9.8, -7.3]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 ( -4761) | vs agree2 -7.8 [-9.1, -6.5]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( -3636) | vs agree2 -7.1 [-8.4, -5.9]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( -2511) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( -1386) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 ( -6057) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.941 equiv  10386 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.940 equiv  10855 (  +469) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.934 equiv   9175 ( -1211) | vs agree2 -0.7 [-0.9, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( -4340) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.960 equiv  23519 (+13133) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.954 equiv  13444 ( +3059) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.954 equiv  14018 ( +3632) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.6]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( -3415) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv  23519 (+13133) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv  24644 (+14258) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.957 equiv  15652 ( +5266) | vs agree2 +1.7 [+1.3, +2.1]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( -2217) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv  23519 (+13133) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv  24644 (+14258) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.960 equiv  25769 (+15383) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  always think           acc 0.960 equiv  21269 (+10884) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.806 equiv   1423
+R   24000: acc 0.809 equiv   1575
+R   32000: acc 0.841 equiv   2807
+R   48000: acc 0.905 equiv   6692
+R   64000: acc 0.926 equiv   8549
+R   96000: acc 0.937 equiv   9783
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.943 equiv 10607 (+221) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.2, +0.6] | R [113840, 153028] | {'stop@2': 5017, 'stop@3': 2377, 'stop@5': 844, 'think:q32b_think@2': 504, 'think:q32b_think@5': 341, 'stop@6': 297, 'think:q32b_think@6': 270, 'think:q32b_think@8': 233}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.941 equiv 10575 (+189) | vs agree2 +0.1 [-0.3, +0.5] | R [174149, 146560] | {'stop@2': 5365, 'stop@3': 1433, 'stop@4': 833, 'stop@5': 755, 'think:q32b_think@3': 494, 'stop@6': 373, 'think:q32b_think@5': 340, 'think:q32b_think@6': 328}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.940 equiv 10126 (-260) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.5, +0.5] | R [108934, 168650] | {'stop@2': 6040, 'stop@3': 1030, 'stop@5': 811, 'stop@4': 670, 'think:q32b_think@4': 434, 'stop@6': 385, 'think:q32b_think@3': 365, 'think:q32b_think@6': 330}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.941 equiv 10515 (+129) | vs agree2 +0.1 [-0.4, +0.5] | R [165941, 123238] | {'stop@2': 4132, 'stop@3': 2403, 'stop@4': 1116, 'stop@5': 881, 'think:q32b_think@6': 519, 'think:q32b_think@3': 385, 'think:q32b_think@5': 361, 'stop@6': 314}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only_c4.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,87 @@
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+ "git": {
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+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
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+   "path": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-ood/workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json",
+   "bytes": 26525,
+   "sha256": "4eef554b7fa4edff6cf11b63aadb44267d211bc25285eb260dcc1b45d2cf3a1f"
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+ "finished_at": "2026-10-25T11:37:14+04:00",
+ "wall_secs": 41.2,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only_notask.json

@@ -0,0 +1,374 @@
+{
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+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only_notask.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:36:34,779 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> q32b_think): acc 0.941 equiv 4284
+  agree2                 acc 0.941 equiv   4284 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3159) | vs agree2 -15.0 [-16.3, -13.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2034) | vs agree2 -12.9 [-14.2, -11.5]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 (  -909) | vs agree2 -9.6 [-10.9, -8.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  +216) | vs agree2 -8.5 [-9.8, -7.3]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 ( +1341) | vs agree2 -7.8 [-9.1, -6.5]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2466) | vs agree2 -7.1 [-8.4, -5.9]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3591) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4716) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (   +45) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.941 equiv   4284 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.940 equiv   4759 (  +475) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.934 equiv   4695 (  +411) | vs agree2 -0.7 [-0.9, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1762) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.954 equiv   5892 ( +1608) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.954 equiv   6471 ( +2187) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.6]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2687) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv   8692 ( +4408) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.957 equiv   7288 ( +3004) | vs agree2 +1.7 [+1.3, +2.1]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3885) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv   8692 ( +4408) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.960 equiv   9817 ( +5533) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  always think           acc 0.960 equiv   5317 ( +1033) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1127
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1128
+R   16000: acc 0.910 equiv   3287
+R   24000: acc 0.921 equiv   3566
+R   32000: acc 0.948 equiv   4445
+R   48000: acc 0.953 equiv   4766
+R   64000: acc 0.953 equiv   4776
+R   96000: acc 0.953 equiv   5015
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.948 equiv 4441 (+157) | vs agree2 +0.8 [+0.4, +1.2] | R [29979, 27761] | {'stop@1': 3623, 'stop@2': 3346, 'think:q32b_think@1': 1772, 'think:q32b_think@2': 1574, 'stop@3': 390, 'think:q32b_think@3': 161, 'stop@5': 10, 'stop@8': 6}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.929 equiv 3772 (-512) | vs agree2 -1.1 [-1.8, -0.5] | R [27236, 29035] | {'stop@1': 7232, 'think:q32b_think@1': 3656}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.941 equiv 4102 (-181) | vs agree2 +0.1 [-0.5, +0.7] | R [26256, 30642] | {'stop@1': 5513, 'think:q32b_think@1': 3627, 'stop@2': 1443, 'think:q32b_think@2': 279, 'stop@5': 11, 'stop@3': 8, 'stop@8': 4, 'think:q32b_think@7': 2}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.929 equiv 3781 (-503) | vs agree2 -1.2 [-1.8, -0.5] | R [30444, 26112] | {'stop@1': 7239, 'think:q32b_think@1': 3649}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_32only_notask.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+{
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+ "user": "vlad.smirnov",
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+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "q32b_think=workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json",
+  "--tbins",
+  "1",
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+ ],
+ "git": {
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+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
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+ "wall_secs": 33.0,
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+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_c4.json

@@ -0,0 +1,413 @@
+{
+ "ref": {
+  "acc": 0.929922850844967,
+  "equiv": 4659.625211241734
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+ "baselines": {
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+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_c4.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:35:01,398 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> think16k): acc 0.930 equiv 4660
+  agree2                 acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3535) | vs agree2 -13.9 [-15.1, -12.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2410) | vs agree2 -11.8 [-13.0, -10.6]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -1285) | vs agree2 -8.6 [-9.8, -7.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  -160) | vs agree2 -7.5 [-8.6, -6.4]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 (  +965) | vs agree2 -6.7 [-7.9, -5.6]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2090) | vs agree2 -6.1 [-7.2, -5.0]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3215) | vs agree2 -5.8 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4340) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (  -331) | vs agree2 -5.9 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.930 equiv   5133 (  +474) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.924 equiv   4969 (  +309) | vs agree2 -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1386) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.942 equiv   6364 ( +1705) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+1.0, +1.5]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.942 equiv   6942 ( +2282) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.9, +1.4]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2311) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.945 equiv   7812 ( +3153) | vs agree2 +1.5 [+1.2, +1.8]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3509) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.948 equiv  10841 ( +6181) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  always think           acc 0.948 equiv   6341 ( +1682) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.830 equiv   1920
+R   24000: acc 0.925 equiv   4457
+R   32000: acc 0.929 equiv   4607
+R   48000: acc 0.938 equiv   5010
+R   64000: acc 0.940 equiv   5188
+R   96000: acc 0.941 equiv   5437
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.930 equiv 4666 (+6) | vs agree2 +0.0 [-0.5, +0.6] | R [35955, 32357] | {'think:think16k@0': 3544, 'stop@1': 3189, 'stop@2': 2976, 'think:think16k@2': 258, 'stop@4': 221, 'think:think16k@3': 204, 'stop@3': 187, 'think:think16k@4': 87}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.936 equiv 4829 (+170) | vs agree2 +0.6 [+0.1, +1.2] | R [30966, 29502] | {'think:think16k@0': 3712, 'stop@2': 3394, 'stop@1': 2468, 'stop@3': 325, 'think:think16k@3': 301, 'think:think16k@2': 296, 'stop@4': 169, 'stop@5': 75}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.931 equiv 4580 (-80) | vs agree2 +0.1 [-0.5, +0.7] | R [39094, 30978] | {'think:think16k@0': 3560, 'stop@1': 3242, 'stop@2': 3013, 'think:think16k@2': 476, 'stop@5': 180, 'stop@3': 124, 'stop@4': 78, 'think:think16k@3': 42}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.932 equiv 4589 (-70) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.3, +0.8] | R [28710, 30490] | {'stop@1': 3886, 'think:think16k@0': 3632, 'stop@2': 2327, 'think:think16k@2': 562, 'stop@5': 137, 'stop@3': 113, 'stop@4': 73, 'think:think16k@3': 43}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_c4.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
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+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "q32b_think=workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json@4",
+  "--out",
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+ "git": {
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+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
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+ "wall_secs": 35.9,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_c4_ref32.json

@@ -0,0 +1,433 @@
+{
+ "ref": {
+  "acc": 0.9405767817781043,
+  "equiv": 10385.626671565025
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+ "baselines": {
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+    -0.05648190668626012
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+    0.0
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+  },
+  "AC(0.8)+think@3": {
+   "acc": 0.9403930933137399,
+   "equiv": 10855.038243938281,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.0005510653930933138,
+    0.0
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.009184423218221896,
+    -0.004132990448199853
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+  "AC(0.9)": {
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+   "equiv": 6046.053545187362,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.07834542615723733,
+    -0.05198383541513593
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
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+    0.010929463629684055,
+    0.016623806024981633
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.010745775165319618,
+    0.0162587252020573
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+  "AC(0.95)": {
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+    -0.06456649522409992,
+    -0.07806989346069067,
+    -0.05152461425422483
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+  },
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+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
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+  },
+  "AC(0.95)+think@3": {
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+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
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+    0.012950036737692874,
+    0.020575404114621592
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+    -0.07788850110213079,
+    -0.05143277002204261
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+  "AC(0.99)+think@2": {
+   "acc": 0.9603232916972814,
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+    0.019746509919177077,
+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
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+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
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+    0.012766348273328435,
+    0.026726671565025718
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+ "frontier": [
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+   "acc": 0.7907788390889052,
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+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_c4_ref32.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:35:01,323 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> q32b_think): acc 0.941 equiv 10386
+  agree2                 acc 0.941 equiv  10386 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -9261) | vs agree2 -15.0 [-16.3, -13.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -8136) | vs agree2 -12.9 [-14.2, -11.5]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -7011) | vs agree2 -9.6 [-10.9, -8.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 ( -5886) | vs agree2 -8.5 [-9.8, -7.3]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 ( -4761) | vs agree2 -7.8 [-9.1, -6.5]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( -3636) | vs agree2 -7.1 [-8.4, -5.9]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( -2511) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( -1386) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 ( -6057) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.941 equiv  10386 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.940 equiv  10855 (  +469) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.934 equiv   9175 ( -1211) | vs agree2 -0.7 [-0.9, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( -4340) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.960 equiv  23519 (+13133) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.954 equiv  13444 ( +3059) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.954 equiv  14018 ( +3632) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.6]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( -3415) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv  23519 (+13133) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv  24644 (+14258) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.957 equiv  15652 ( +5266) | vs agree2 +1.7 [+1.3, +2.1]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( -2217) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv  23519 (+13133) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv  24644 (+14258) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.960 equiv  25769 (+15383) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  always think           acc 0.960 equiv  21269 (+10884) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.830 equiv   1920
+R   24000: acc 0.925 equiv   4457
+R   32000: acc 0.929 equiv   4607
+R   48000: acc 0.938 equiv   5010
+R   64000: acc 0.940 equiv   5188
+R   96000: acc 0.941 equiv   5437
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.951 equiv 11048 (+662) | vs agree2 +1.0 [+0.3, +1.7] | R [241798, 341524] | {'stop@3': 3489, 'stop@2': 1372, 'think:think16k@1': 1117, 'stop@4': 1058, 'stop@5': 641, 'think:think16k@2': 517, 'think:q32b_think@8': 477, 'think:think16k@4': 288}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.942 equiv 10603 (+218) | vs agree2 +0.1 [-0.5, +0.8] | R [462594, 191456] | {'stop@2': 2773, 'stop@3': 2419, 'think:think16k@2': 983, 'stop@4': 878, 'think:think16k@1': 558, 'stop@5': 463, 'think:q32b_think@5': 435, 'think:think16k@4': 390}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.942 equiv 10225 (-161) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.5, +0.8] | R [271137, 325583] | {'stop@3': 3694, 'stop@4': 1737, 'stop@2': 1422, 'think:think16k@2': 765, 'think:think16k@3': 556, 'stop@5': 506, 'think:q32b_think@8': 423, 'think:think16k@4': 267}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.948 equiv 10158 (-228) | vs agree2 +0.7 [-0.0, +1.4] | R [266358, 293112] | {'stop@3': 2856, 'stop@2': 2500, 'stop@4': 1185, 'think:think16k@1': 707, 'think:think16k@2': 480, 'think:q32b_think@8': 466, 'stop@5': 452, 'think:think16k@3': 434}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_c4_ref32.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
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+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "q32b_think=workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json@4",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "--out",
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+ "git": {
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+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
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+ "wall_secs": 44.3,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_ref32.json

@@ -0,0 +1,421 @@
+{
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+ "baselines": {
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+  }
+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_ref32.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:35:01,400 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> q32b_think): acc 0.941 equiv 4284
+  agree2                 acc 0.941 equiv   4284 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3159) | vs agree2 -15.0 [-16.3, -13.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2034) | vs agree2 -12.9 [-14.2, -11.5]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 (  -909) | vs agree2 -9.6 [-10.9, -8.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  +216) | vs agree2 -8.5 [-9.8, -7.3]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 ( +1341) | vs agree2 -7.8 [-9.1, -6.5]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2466) | vs agree2 -7.1 [-8.4, -5.9]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3591) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4716) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (   +45) | vs agree2 -6.9 [-8.2, -5.6]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.941 equiv   4284 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.940 equiv   4759 (  +475) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.934 equiv   4695 (  +411) | vs agree2 -0.7 [-0.9, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1762) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.954 equiv   5892 ( +1608) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.7]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.954 equiv   6471 ( +2187) | vs agree2 +1.4 [+1.1, +1.6]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2687) | vs agree2 -6.5 [-7.8, -5.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv   8692 ( +4408) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.957 equiv   7288 ( +3004) | vs agree2 +1.7 [+1.3, +2.1]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3885) | vs agree2 -6.4 [-7.8, -5.1]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.960 equiv   7567 ( +3283) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.960 equiv   8692 ( +4408) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.960 equiv   9817 ( +5533) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+  always think           acc 0.960 equiv   5317 ( +1033) | vs agree2 +2.0 [+1.3, +2.7]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1127
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1128
+R   16000: acc 0.935 equiv   3728
+R   24000: acc 0.942 equiv   3919
+R   32000: acc 0.951 equiv   4195
+R   48000: acc 0.955 equiv   4464
+R   64000: acc 0.955 equiv   4543
+R   96000: acc 0.957 equiv   4844
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.952 equiv 4265 (-19) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.6, +1.8] | R [48694, 34234] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3544, 'stop@2': 3349, 'stop@1': 2549, 'think:q32b_think@2': 794, 'stop@3': 280, 'think:q32b_think@3': 127, 'stop@5': 104, 'stop@4': 50}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.950 equiv 4415 (+132) | vs agree2 +0.9 [+0.3, +1.6] | R [30966, 42770] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3712, 'stop@2': 3229, 'stop@1': 2468, 'think:q32b_think@2': 604, 'stop@3': 333, 'think:think16k@2': 214, 'think:q32b_think@3': 128, 'think:think16k@3': 60}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.950 equiv 4247 (-37) | vs agree2 +1.0 [+0.3, +1.6] | R [48680, 29265] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3560, 'stop@2': 3160, 'stop@1': 2682, 'think:q32b_think@2': 731, 'stop@3': 301, 'stop@5': 176, 'stop@4': 63, 'think:q32b_think@3': 59}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.954 equiv 4256 (-28) | vs agree2 +1.3 [+0.7, +1.9] | R [37481, 35076] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3632, 'stop@2': 3248, 'stop@1': 2673, 'think:q32b_think@2': 874, 'stop@3': 208, 'think:q32b_think@3': 108, 'stop@5': 60, 'stop@4': 49}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_both_ref32.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+{
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+ "host": "ws006600",
+ "user": "vlad.smirnov",
+ "cwd": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos",
+ "argv": [
+  "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos/rl_controller/scripts/bayes_sc.py",
+  "--pool-dir",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat",
+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "q32b_think=workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "--out",
+  "workdir/bayes/sc_both_ref32.json"
+ ],
+ "git": {
+  "commit": "0a7204adddcc8e6f8fb07f1c3871ba31f3332689",
+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
+  "dirty": false,
+  "dirty_files": []
+ },
+ "gpus": {
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+  "devices": [
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+    "name": "NVIDIA RTX 5880 Ada Generation",
+    "memory": "49140 MiB",
+    "driver": "580.178.04",
+    "uuid": "GPU-a15d9536-8962-7d07-d199-3fb785e80c83"
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+    "name": "NVIDIA RTX 5880 Ada Generation",
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+    "driver": "580.178.04",
+    "uuid": "GPU-168c29de-060d-b509-1ebd-6be5535c9d6a"
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analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_notask.json

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analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_notask.log

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+2026-10-25 11:32:38,872 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> think16k): acc 0.930 equiv 4660
+  agree2                 acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3535) | vs agree2 -13.9 [-15.1, -12.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2410) | vs agree2 -11.8 [-13.0, -10.6]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -1285) | vs agree2 -8.6 [-9.8, -7.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  -160) | vs agree2 -7.5 [-8.6, -6.4]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 (  +965) | vs agree2 -6.7 [-7.9, -5.6]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2090) | vs agree2 -6.1 [-7.2, -5.0]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3215) | vs agree2 -5.8 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4340) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (  -331) | vs agree2 -5.9 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.930 equiv   5133 (  +474) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.924 equiv   4969 (  +309) | vs agree2 -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1386) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.942 equiv   6364 ( +1705) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+1.0, +1.5]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.942 equiv   6942 ( +2282) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.9, +1.4]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2311) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.945 equiv   7812 ( +3153) | vs agree2 +1.5 [+1.2, +1.8]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3509) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.948 equiv  10841 ( +6181) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  always think           acc 0.948 equiv   6341 ( +1682) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.791 equiv   1129
+R   24000: acc 0.898 equiv   3569
+R   32000: acc 0.910 equiv   3948
+R   48000: acc 0.936 equiv   5267
+R   64000: acc 0.935 equiv   5448
+R   96000: acc 0.934 equiv   5972
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.934 equiv 5145 (+485) | vs agree2 +0.4 [+0.1, +0.6] | R [47384, 37297] | {'stop@2': 5394, 'stop@1': 1797, 'think:think16k@2': 1611, 'think:think16k@3': 1151, 'stop@3': 738, 'stop@5': 55, 'stop@4': 46, 'think:think16k@4': 27}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.923 equiv 4574 (-86) | vs agree2 -0.7 [-0.9, -0.4] | R [33915, 48873] | {'stop@2': 4673, 'stop@1': 3633, 'think:think16k@2': 1188, 'think:think16k@3': 1017, 'stop@5': 193, 'think:think16k@4': 82, 'stop@3': 39, 'stop@6': 25}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.926 equiv 4605 (-55) | vs agree2 -0.3 [-0.7, -0.1] | R [43431, 36700] | {'stop@2': 4156, 'stop@1': 3636, 'think:think16k@2': 2074, 'stop@3': 352, 'think:think16k@3': 326, 'stop@4': 166, 'think:think16k@4': 76, 'stop@5': 58}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.926 equiv 4728 (+69) | vs agree2 -0.4 [-0.6, -0.1] | R [40476, 36640] | {'stop@2': 4034, 'stop@1': 3651, 'think:think16k@2': 1707, 'think:think16k@3': 657, 'stop@3': 440, 'stop@4': 162, 'think:think16k@4': 160, 'stop@5': 47}
+2026-10-25 11:33:25,517 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: '\\alpha^{85}-\\alpha^{-85}' vs '2\\cos(85\\theta)'
+2026-10-25 11:33:35,753 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '-2'
+2026-10-25 11:33:45,788 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '2\\cos(85\\theta)'
+2026-10-25 11:33:55,824 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '123'
+2026-10-25 11:34:05,860 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '\\alpha^{85}-\\alpha^{-85}'
+2026-10-25 11:34:16,171 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: '2' vs 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}'
+2026-10-25 11:34:26,545 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'L_{85}' vs 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}'
+transfer m500: adaptive-SC Bayes acc 0.930 equiv 4796 | agree2 0.924 at 4634 | vs agree2 +0.5 [-0.2, +1.2] | always think 0.938 at 6232
+transfer aime: adaptive-SC Bayes acc 0.530 equiv 17082 | agree2 0.554 at 15602 | vs agree2 -2.4 [-4.8, -0.4] | always think 0.592 at 12900

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_notask.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
+{
+ "started_at": "2026-10-25T11:32:37+04:00",
+ "host": "ws006600",
+ "user": "vlad.smirnov",
+ "cwd": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos",
+ "argv": [
+  "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos/rl_controller/scripts/bayes_sc.py",
+  "--pool-dir",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat",
+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "--tbins",
+  "1",
+  "--transfer",
+  "m500=workdir/selector/pool_m500_k8_chat,workdir/selector/pool_m500_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json,workdir/bayes/m500_tier.json,workdir/bayes/m500_task_prior.json",
+  "aime=workdir/selector/pool_aime_k8_chat,workdir/selector/pool_aime_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json,workdir/bayes/aime_tier.json,workdir/bayes/aime_task_prior.json",
+  "--out",
+  "workdir/bayes/sc_notask.json"
+ ],
+ "git": {
+  "commit": "0a7204adddcc8e6f8fb07f1c3871ba31f3332689",
+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
+  "dirty": false,
+  "dirty_files": []
+ },
+ "gpus": {
+  "visible": "",
+  "devices": [
+   {
+    "index": "0",
+    "name": "NVIDIA RTX 5880 Ada Generation",
+    "memory": "49140 MiB",
+    "driver": "580.178.04",
+    "uuid": "GPU-a15d9536-8962-7d07-d199-3fb785e80c83"
+   },
+   {
+    "index": "1",
+    "name": "NVIDIA RTX 5880 Ada Generation",
+    "memory": "49140 MiB",
+    "driver": "580.178.04",
+    "uuid": "GPU-168c29de-060d-b509-1ebd-6be5535c9d6a"
+   }
+  ]
+ },
+ "packages": {
+  "python": "3.11.15",
+  "torch": "2.9.1",
+  "vllm": "0.15.1",
+  "transformers": "4.57.6",
+  "speculators": "0.4.0.dev49",
+  "peft": null,
+  "accelerate": "1.13.0",
+  "numpy": "2.2.6",
+  "huggingface_hub": "0.36.2",
+  "openai": "2.32.0",
+  "wandb": "0.25.1"
+ },
+ "env": {
+  "CUDA_VISIBLE_DEVICES": ""
+ },
+ "models": [],
+ "files": {
+  "pool": {
+   "path": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-ood/workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/pool_chains.jsonl",
+   "bytes": 65136887,
+   "sha256": "00f58ec1868cbe5ed10312cfa5649745c18e4a0bd121ee93bd40f0303ece4fda"
+  },
+  "uhead": {
+   "path": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-ood/workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+   "bytes": 9369632,
+   "sha256": "9417d517828e3fc083b56dcb62dada5aeaec69d60684adafe2ce76807fd39e21"
+  },
+  "tier:think16k": {
+   "path": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-ood/workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+   "bytes": 26666,
+   "sha256": "fc3e1788b20be07c0b78bc3fad95f06ec7eb60258556a8f3c4373d16f23c557f"
+  }
+ },
+ "finished_at": "2026-10-25T11:34:31+04:00",
+ "wall_secs": 114.6,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task.json

@@ -0,0 +1,646 @@
+{
+ "ref": {
+  "acc": 0.929922850844967,
+  "equiv": 4659.625211241734
+ },
+ "baselines": {
+  "agree2": {
+   "acc": 0.929922850844967,
+   "equiv": 4659.625211241734,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@1": {
+   "acc": 0.7907788390889052,
+   "equiv": 1124.9408523144746,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.13914401175606173,
+    -0.15136044268919913,
+    -0.1273879500367377
+   ]
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+  "SC@2": {
+   "acc": 0.8118111682586333,
+   "equiv": 2249.881704628949,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.13019034717119765,
+    -0.10626262858192506
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+   "acc": 0.8444158706833211,
+   "equiv": 3374.822556943424,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.09758908890521675,
+    -0.07425606171932403
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+  "SC@4": {
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+   "equiv": 4499.763409257898,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.08610396767083027,
+    -0.06350799044819987
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@5": {
+   "acc": 0.8630602498163116,
+   "equiv": 5624.704261572373,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.0668626010286554,
+    -0.07866458486407053,
+    -0.055564612417340196
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@6": {
+   "acc": 0.8693056576047025,
+   "equiv": 6749.645113886848,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.06061719324026451,
+    -0.07214594048493755,
+    -0.04968428545187364
+   ]
+  },
+  "SC@7": {
+   "acc": 0.8717854518736223,
+   "equiv": 7874.585966201323,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.0581373989713446,
+    -0.0704009000734754,
+    -0.04670279206465834
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+  },
+  "SC@8": {
+   "acc": 0.8761021307861866,
+   "equiv": 8999.526818515797,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    -0.05382072005878031,
+    -0.0664963721528288,
+    -0.041696133357825134
+   ]
+  },
+  "AC(0.8)": {
+   "acc": 0.8714180749448934,
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+    -0.07026313372520206,
+    -0.04679463629684056
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+   "equiv": 4659.625211241734,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.0,
+    0.0
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.0
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+    -0.008357825128581926,
+    -0.003857457751653196
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+    -0.06658821638501101,
+    -0.04242973916238061
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+    0.023925422483468038
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.011939750183688464,
+    0.009504729977957385,
+    0.014511388684790596
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+  "AC(0.9)+think@4": {
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+    0.011756061719324026,
+    0.009368111682586333,
+    0.014281778104335048
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+  "AC(0.95)": {
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+    -0.05391256429096253,
+    -0.06658706833210874,
+    -0.04192459588537841
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+  "AC(0.95)+think@2": {
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+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.01483284349742836,
+    0.011572373254959589,
+    0.018369994489346064
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+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+ },
+ "frontier": [
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+   "acc": 0.7907788390889052,
+   "equiv": 1125.9210139603233
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+  {
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+   "acc": 0.7907788390889052,
+   "equiv": 1125.9210139603233
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+  {
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+   "acc": 0.830088170462895,
+   "equiv": 1919.7061260102867
+  },
+  {
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+   "acc": 0.924917340191036,
+   "equiv": 4457.099834680382
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+   "acc": 0.929142174871418,
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+   "equiv": 5009.742376928729
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+   "equiv": 5187.553829904482
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+   "acc": 0.9407145481263777,
+   "equiv": 5400.68963997061
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+ "matched": [
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+    "stop@7": 28,
+    "think:think16k@5": 21,
+    "stop@3": 124,
+    "think:think16k@3": 42,
+    "think:think16k@7": 7,
+    "think:think16k@6": 18,
+    "think:think16k@2": 476,
+    "stop@4": 78,
+    "think:think16k@4": 34,
+    "think:think16k@8": 3
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "seed": 3,
+   "acc": 0.9323108008817046,
+   "equiv": 4589.129151359295,
+   "R": [
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+    30490.45634869312
+   ],
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.002387950036737693,
+    -0.0031227038941954444,
+    0.008495591476855253
+   ],
+   "actions": {
+    "stop@1": 3886,
+    "stop@2": 2327,
+    "think:think16k@2": 562,
+    "think:think16k@0": 3632,
+    "stop@3": 113,
+    "stop@4": 73,
+    "stop@5": 137,
+    "think:think16k@3": 43,
+    "stop@8": 27,
+    "stop@7": 11,
+    "stop@6": 24,
+    "think:think16k@5": 28,
+    "think:think16k@7": 4,
+    "think:think16k@8": 2,
+    "think:think16k@4": 19
+   }
+  }
+ ],
+ "transfer": {
+  "R": 34628.45902795292,
+  "m500": {
+   "acc": 0.9140625,
+   "equiv": 4676.85703125,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.033203125,
+    0.0109375
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+    "SC@4": [
+     0.86171875,
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+    "SC@5": [
+     0.871875,
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+    "SC@6": [
+     0.8765625,
+     6622.5796875
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+    "SC@7": [
+     0.88984375,
+     7726.34296875
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+     0.89375,
+     8830.10625
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+    "AC(0.8)": [
+     0.88828125,
+     4099.459375
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+    "AC(0.8)+think@2": [
+     0.92421875,
+     4634.017890625
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+    "AC(0.8)+think@3": [
+     0.92421875,
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+    "AC(0.8)+think@4": [
+     0.917578125,
+     4986.9370312500005
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+    "AC(0.9)": [
+     0.89375,
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+    "AC(0.9)+think@2": [
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+     0.9375,
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+    "AC(0.9)+think@4": [
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+    -0.08020833333333334,
+    -0.03229166666666667
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+    "SC@6": [
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+     0.5916666666666667,
+     20501.495
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+     0.5916666666666667,
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+  }
+ }
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task.log

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+2026-10-25 11:32:38,863 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> think16k): acc 0.930 equiv 4660
+  agree2                 acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3535) | vs agree2 -13.9 [-15.1, -12.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2410) | vs agree2 -11.8 [-13.0, -10.6]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -1285) | vs agree2 -8.6 [-9.8, -7.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  -160) | vs agree2 -7.5 [-8.6, -6.4]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 (  +965) | vs agree2 -6.7 [-7.9, -5.6]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2090) | vs agree2 -6.1 [-7.2, -5.0]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3215) | vs agree2 -5.8 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4340) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (  -331) | vs agree2 -5.9 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.930 equiv   5133 (  +474) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.924 equiv   4969 (  +309) | vs agree2 -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1386) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.942 equiv   6364 ( +1705) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+1.0, +1.5]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.942 equiv   6942 ( +2282) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.9, +1.4]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2311) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.945 equiv   7812 ( +3153) | vs agree2 +1.5 [+1.2, +1.8]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3509) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.948 equiv  10841 ( +6181) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  always think           acc 0.948 equiv   6341 ( +1682) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.830 equiv   1920
+R   24000: acc 0.925 equiv   4457
+R   32000: acc 0.929 equiv   4607
+R   48000: acc 0.938 equiv   5010
+R   64000: acc 0.940 equiv   5188
+R   96000: acc 0.941 equiv   5401
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.930 equiv 4666 (+6) | vs agree2 +0.0 [-0.5, +0.6] | R [35955, 32357] | {'think:think16k@0': 3544, 'stop@1': 3189, 'stop@2': 2976, 'think:think16k@2': 258, 'stop@4': 221, 'think:think16k@3': 204, 'stop@3': 187, 'think:think16k@4': 87}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.936 equiv 4829 (+170) | vs agree2 +0.6 [+0.1, +1.2] | R [30966, 29502] | {'think:think16k@0': 3712, 'stop@2': 3394, 'stop@1': 2468, 'stop@3': 325, 'think:think16k@3': 301, 'think:think16k@2': 296, 'stop@4': 169, 'stop@5': 75}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.931 equiv 4580 (-80) | vs agree2 +0.1 [-0.5, +0.7] | R [39094, 30978] | {'think:think16k@0': 3560, 'stop@1': 3242, 'stop@2': 3013, 'think:think16k@2': 476, 'stop@5': 180, 'stop@3': 124, 'stop@4': 78, 'think:think16k@3': 42}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.932 equiv 4589 (-70) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.3, +0.8] | R [28710, 30490] | {'stop@1': 3886, 'think:think16k@0': 3632, 'stop@2': 2327, 'think:think16k@2': 562, 'stop@5': 137, 'stop@3': 113, 'stop@4': 73, 'think:think16k@3': 43}
+2026-10-25 11:33:23,605 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: '\\alpha^{85}-\\alpha^{-85}' vs '2\\cos(85\\theta)'
+2026-10-25 11:33:33,829 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '-2'
+2026-10-25 11:33:43,861 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '2\\cos(85\\theta)'
+2026-10-25 11:33:53,892 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '123'
+2026-10-25 11:34:03,930 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}' vs '\\alpha^{85}-\\alpha^{-85}'
+2026-10-25 11:34:14,243 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: '2' vs 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}'
+2026-10-25 11:34:24,624 judge_selector WARNING: answer comparison timed out after 10s, counted unequal: 'L_{85}' vs 'z^{85}+\\frac{1}{z^{85}}=\\phi^{85}+(\\phi-1)^{85}'
+transfer m500: adaptive-SC Bayes acc 0.914 equiv 4677 | agree2 0.924 at 4634 | vs agree2 -1.0 [-3.3, +1.1] | always think 0.938 at 6232
+transfer aime: adaptive-SC Bayes acc 0.499 equiv 14890 | agree2 0.554 at 15602 | vs agree2 -5.5 [-8.0, -3.2] | always think 0.592 at 12900

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+{
+ "started_at": "2026-10-25T11:32:37+04:00",
+ "host": "ws006600",
+ "user": "vlad.smirnov",
+ "cwd": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos",
+ "argv": [
+  "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos/rl_controller/scripts/bayes_sc.py",
+  "--pool-dir",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat",
+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--transfer",
+  "m500=workdir/selector/pool_m500_k8_chat,workdir/selector/pool_m500_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json,workdir/bayes/m500_tier.json,workdir/bayes/m500_task_prior.json",
+  "aime=workdir/selector/pool_aime_k8_chat,workdir/selector/pool_aime_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json,workdir/bayes/aime_tier.json,workdir/bayes/aime_task_prior.json",
+  "--out",
+  "workdir/bayes/sc_task.json"
+ ],
+ "git": {
+  "commit": "0a7204adddcc8e6f8fb07f1c3871ba31f3332689",
+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
+  "dirty": false,
+  "dirty_files": []
+ },
+ "gpus": {
+  "visible": "",
+  "devices": [
+   {
+    "index": "0",
+    "name": "NVIDIA RTX 5880 Ada Generation",
+    "memory": "49140 MiB",
+    "driver": "580.178.04",
+    "uuid": "GPU-a15d9536-8962-7d07-d199-3fb785e80c83"
+   },
+   {
+    "index": "1",
+    "name": "NVIDIA RTX 5880 Ada Generation",
+    "memory": "49140 MiB",
+    "driver": "580.178.04",
+    "uuid": "GPU-168c29de-060d-b509-1ebd-6be5535c9d6a"
+   }
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+ },
+ "packages": {
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+  "torch": "2.9.1",
+  "vllm": "0.15.1",
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+  "accelerate": "1.13.0",
+  "numpy": "2.2.6",
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+  "openai": "2.32.0",
+  "wandb": "0.25.1"
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+ "env": {
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+ },
+ "models": [],
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+   "bytes": 65136887,
+   "sha256": "00f58ec1868cbe5ed10312cfa5649745c18e4a0bd121ee93bd40f0303ece4fda"
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+   "bytes": 9369632,
+   "sha256": "9417d517828e3fc083b56dcb62dada5aeaec69d60684adafe2ce76807fd39e21"
+  },
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+   "bytes": 27027,
+   "sha256": "dda1465899ed46478d2c9dbba66718298aa9c3dfe815e74cb841d0bc63bc0a90"
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+  "tier:think16k": {
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+   "bytes": 26666,
+   "sha256": "fc3e1788b20be07c0b78bc3fad95f06ec7eb60258556a8f3c4373d16f23c557f"
+  }
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+ "finished_at": "2026-10-25T11:34:29+04:00",
+ "wall_secs": 112.8,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_32b.json

@@ -0,0 +1,432 @@
+{
+ "ref": {
+  "acc": 0.929922850844967,
+  "equiv": 4659.625211241734
+ },
+ "baselines": {
+  "agree2": {
+   "acc": 0.929922850844967,
+   "equiv": 4659.625211241734,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0
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+  },
+  "SC@1": {
+   "acc": 0.7907788390889052,
+   "equiv": 1124.9408523144746,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+  "SC@2": {
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+   "equiv": 2249.881704628949,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.13019034717119765,
+    -0.10626262858192506
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+  "SC@3": {
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+   "equiv": 3374.822556943424,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.09758908890521675,
+    -0.07425606171932403
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+  "SC@4": {
+   "acc": 0.8553453343130052,
+   "equiv": 4499.763409257898,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.08610396767083027,
+    -0.06350799044819987
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+  "SC@5": {
+   "acc": 0.8630602498163116,
+   "equiv": 5624.704261572373,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.07866458486407053,
+    -0.055564612417340196
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+  "SC@6": {
+   "acc": 0.8693056576047025,
+   "equiv": 6749.645113886848,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.07214594048493755,
+    -0.04968428545187364
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+  "SC@7": {
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+   "equiv": 7874.585966201323,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.0704009000734754,
+    -0.04670279206465834
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+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_32b.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:32:38,867 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> think16k): acc 0.930 equiv 4660
+  agree2                 acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3535) | vs agree2 -13.9 [-15.1, -12.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2410) | vs agree2 -11.8 [-13.0, -10.6]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -1285) | vs agree2 -8.6 [-9.8, -7.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  -160) | vs agree2 -7.5 [-8.6, -6.4]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 (  +965) | vs agree2 -6.7 [-7.9, -5.6]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2090) | vs agree2 -6.1 [-7.2, -5.0]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3215) | vs agree2 -5.8 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4340) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (  -331) | vs agree2 -5.9 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.930 equiv   5133 (  +474) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.924 equiv   4969 (  +309) | vs agree2 -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1386) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.942 equiv   6364 ( +1705) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+1.0, +1.5]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.942 equiv   6942 ( +2282) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.9, +1.4]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2311) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.945 equiv   7812 ( +3153) | vs agree2 +1.5 [+1.2, +1.8]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3509) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.948 equiv  10841 ( +6181) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  always think           acc 0.948 equiv   6341 ( +1682) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1127
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1128
+R   16000: acc 0.935 equiv   3728
+R   24000: acc 0.942 equiv   3919
+R   32000: acc 0.951 equiv   4195
+R   48000: acc 0.955 equiv   4464
+R   64000: acc 0.955 equiv   4543
+R   96000: acc 0.957 equiv   4844
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.956 equiv 4646 (-13) | vs agree2 +2.6 [+1.6, +3.5] | R [91857, 52960] | {'stop@2': 4102, 'think:q32b_think@0': 3544, 'stop@1': 1080, 'stop@3': 655, 'think:q32b_think@2': 434, 'think:q32b_think@3': 308, 'stop@5': 306, 'think:q32b_think@4': 177}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.953 equiv 4703 (+44) | vs agree2 +2.3 [+1.3, +3.2] | R [72464, 77861] | {'think:q32b_think@0': 3712, 'stop@2': 3630, 'stop@1': 1103, 'stop@3': 975, 'think:q32b_think@2': 604, 'think:think16k@2': 214, 'stop@5': 166, 'stop@4': 130}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.957 equiv 4694 (+34) | vs agree2 +2.7 [+1.8, +3.6] | R [153087, 53877] | {'stop@2': 5088, 'think:q32b_think@0': 3560, 'stop@3': 646, 'think:q32b_think@2': 453, 'stop@5': 250, 'think:q32b_think@3': 229, 'think:q32b_think@1': 221, 'think:q32b_think@4': 89}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.958 equiv 4680 (+20) | vs agree2 +2.8 [+1.8, +3.7] | R [67041, 82621] | {'stop@2': 4043, 'think:q32b_think@0': 3632, 'stop@1': 975, 'stop@3': 723, 'think:q32b_think@2': 596, 'think:q32b_think@3': 276, 'think:q32b_think@4': 227, 'stop@5': 166}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_32b.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+{
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+ "argv": [
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+  "--pool-dir",
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+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "q32b_think=workdir/bayes/q32b_think_tier.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--out",
+  "workdir/bayes/sc_task_32b.json"
+ ],
+ "git": {
+  "commit": "0a7204adddcc8e6f8fb07f1c3871ba31f3332689",
+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
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+ "wall_secs": 34.6,
+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_t5.json

@@ -0,0 +1,416 @@
+{
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+  "equiv": 4659.625211241734
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+    0.0124896675238795,
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+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_t5.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:35:01,300 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> think16k): acc 0.930 equiv 4660
+  agree2                 acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3535) | vs agree2 -13.9 [-15.1, -12.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2410) | vs agree2 -11.8 [-13.0, -10.6]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -1285) | vs agree2 -8.6 [-9.8, -7.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  -160) | vs agree2 -7.5 [-8.6, -6.4]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 (  +965) | vs agree2 -6.7 [-7.9, -5.6]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2090) | vs agree2 -6.1 [-7.2, -5.0]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3215) | vs agree2 -5.8 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4340) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (  -331) | vs agree2 -5.9 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.930 equiv   5133 (  +474) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.924 equiv   4969 (  +309) | vs agree2 -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1386) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.942 equiv   6364 ( +1705) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+1.0, +1.5]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.942 equiv   6942 ( +2282) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.9, +1.4]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2311) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.945 equiv   7812 ( +3153) | vs agree2 +1.5 [+1.2, +1.8]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3509) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.948 equiv  10841 ( +6181) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  always think           acc 0.948 equiv   6341 ( +1682) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.872 equiv   2980
+R   24000: acc 0.913 equiv   4015
+R   32000: acc 0.928 equiv   4528
+R   48000: acc 0.940 equiv   5037
+R   64000: acc 0.942 equiv   5230
+R   96000: acc 0.944 equiv   5504
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.932 equiv 4666 (+6) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.2, +0.7] | R [42567, 33470] | {'stop@2': 3950, 'stop@1': 2881, 'think:think16k@0': 2160, 'think:think16k@2': 908, 'stop@3': 273, 'think:think16k@3': 226, 'stop@4': 173, 'stop@5': 130}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.929 equiv 4672 (+12) | vs agree2 -0.1 [-0.5, +0.4] | R [32383, 53369] | {'stop@2': 4948, 'think:think16k@0': 2208, 'stop@1': 1879, 'think:think16k@2': 477, 'think:think16k@1': 386, 'stop@3': 241, 'stop@4': 217, 'think:think16k@3': 188}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.932 equiv 4710 (+50) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.3, +0.7] | R [48491, 33549] | {'stop@2': 4501, 'think:think16k@0': 2208, 'stop@1': 2207, 'think:think16k@2': 810, 'stop@3': 341, 'think:think16k@3': 261, 'stop@5': 163, 'stop@4': 156}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.933 equiv 4677 (+18) | vs agree2 +0.3 [-0.1, +0.8] | R [37231, 42518] | {'stop@2': 4554, 'think:think16k@0': 2192, 'stop@1': 2146, 'think:think16k@2': 920, 'stop@3': 441, 'think:think16k@3': 182, 'stop@5': 138, 'stop@4': 125}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_t5.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+{
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+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
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+  "5",
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+ "git": {
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+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
+  "dirty": false,
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+ "n_problems": 1361
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_u5.json

@@ -0,0 +1,415 @@
+{
+ "ref": {
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+  "equiv": 4659.625211241734
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+ "baselines": {
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+    -0.0704009000734754,
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+  "SC@8": {
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+    -0.0664963721528288,
+    -0.041696133357825134
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+    -0.07026313372520206,
+    -0.04679463629684056
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+   "equiv": 4659.625211241734,
+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.0
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    -0.0005510653930933138,
+    0.0
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+    -0.008357825128581926,
+    -0.003857457751653196
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+    -0.06658821638501101,
+    -0.04242973916238061
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+  "AC(0.9)+think@2": {
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+   "delta_vs_agree2": [
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+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.009504729977957385,
+    0.014511388684790596
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+    0.009368111682586333,
+    0.014281778104335048
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+    -0.06658706833210874,
+    -0.04192459588537841
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+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.017909625275532696,
+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.011572373254959589,
+    0.018369994489346064
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+    -0.0664963721528288,
+    -0.041696133357825134
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+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+    0.0124896675238795,
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+    0.0124896675238795,
+    0.023925422483468038
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+  }
+ ]
+}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_u5.log

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+2026-10-25 11:35:01,391 online_rl_train INFO: ThinkBooster math evaluator loaded
+reference agree2 (rotation pairs, -> think16k): acc 0.930 equiv 4660
+  agree2                 acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  SC@1                   acc 0.791 equiv   1125 ( -3535) | vs agree2 -13.9 [-15.1, -12.7]
+  SC@2                   acc 0.812 equiv   2250 ( -2410) | vs agree2 -11.8 [-13.0, -10.6]
+  SC@3                   acc 0.844 equiv   3375 ( -1285) | vs agree2 -8.6 [-9.8, -7.4]
+  SC@4                   acc 0.855 equiv   4500 (  -160) | vs agree2 -7.5 [-8.6, -6.4]
+  SC@5                   acc 0.863 equiv   5625 (  +965) | vs agree2 -6.7 [-7.9, -5.6]
+  SC@6                   acc 0.869 equiv   6750 ( +2090) | vs agree2 -6.1 [-7.2, -5.0]
+  SC@7                   acc 0.872 equiv   7875 ( +3215) | vs agree2 -5.8 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  SC@8                   acc 0.876 equiv   9000 ( +4340) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.8)                acc 0.871 equiv   4329 (  -331) | vs agree2 -5.9 [-7.0, -4.7]
+  AC(0.8)+think@2        acc 0.930 equiv   4660 (    +0) | vs agree2 +0.0 [+0.0, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@3        acc 0.930 equiv   5133 (  +474) | vs agree2 -0.0 [-0.1, +0.0]
+  AC(0.8)+think@4        acc 0.924 equiv   4969 (  +309) | vs agree2 -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4]
+  AC(0.9)                acc 0.876 equiv   6046 ( +1386) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.9)+think@2        acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.9)+think@3        acc 0.942 equiv   6364 ( +1705) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+1.0, +1.5]
+  AC(0.9)+think@4        acc 0.942 equiv   6942 ( +2282) | vs agree2 +1.2 [+0.9, +1.4]
+  AC(0.95)               acc 0.876 equiv   6970 ( +2311) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.7, -4.2]
+  AC(0.95)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.95)+think@4       acc 0.945 equiv   7812 ( +3153) | vs agree2 +1.5 [+1.2, +1.8]
+  AC(0.99)               acc 0.876 equiv   8168 ( +3509) | vs agree2 -5.4 [-6.6, -4.2]
+  AC(0.99)+think@2       acc 0.948 equiv   8591 ( +3932) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@3       acc 0.948 equiv   9716 ( +5056) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  AC(0.99)+think@4       acc 0.948 equiv  10841 ( +6181) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+  always think           acc 0.948 equiv   6341 ( +1682) | vs agree2 +1.8 [+1.2, +2.4]
+R    4000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R    8000: acc 0.791 equiv   1126
+R   16000: acc 0.843 equiv   2332
+R   24000: acc 0.925 equiv   4443
+R   32000: acc 0.933 equiv   4719
+R   48000: acc 0.938 equiv   5053
+R   64000: acc 0.939 equiv   5179
+R   96000: acc 0.941 equiv   5407
+parity: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.932 equiv 4700 (+40) | vs agree2 +0.2 [-0.4, +0.8] | R [36819, 30556] | {'think:think16k@0': 3544, 'stop@1': 3363, 'stop@2': 2674, 'stop@3': 344, 'think:think16k@2': 317, 'think:think16k@3': 306, 'stop@4': 150, 'stop@5': 53}
+split 1: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.934 equiv 4780 (+121) | vs agree2 +0.4 [-0.1, +1.0] | R [26884, 31444] | {'think:think16k@0': 3712, 'stop@2': 3466, 'stop@1': 2477, 'think:think16k@1': 292, 'think:think16k@2': 269, 'stop@3': 205, 'think:think16k@3': 110, 'stop@4': 102}
+split 2: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.930 equiv 4636 (-24) | vs agree2 +0.0 [-0.5, +0.7] | R [38038, 28038] | {'think:think16k@0': 3560, 'stop@1': 3315, 'stop@2': 2792, 'think:think16k@2': 511, 'stop@3': 259, 'think:think16k@3': 147, 'stop@4': 92, 'stop@5': 79}
+split 3: adaptive-SC Bayes at agree2's cost acc 0.933 equiv 4648 (-12) | vs agree2 +0.3 [-0.2, +0.9] | R [30339, 29485] | {'think:think16k@0': 3632, 'stop@1': 3378, 'stop@2': 2777, 'think:think16k@2': 570, 'stop@3': 125, 'stop@5': 108, 'think:think16k@3': 94, 'stop@4': 85}

analysis/bayes_sc_2026-10-25/sc_task_u5.provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+{
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+ "host": "ws006600",
+ "user": "vlad.smirnov",
+ "cwd": "/mnt/data/users/vlad.smirnov/rl-uhead-combos",
+ "argv": [
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+  "--pool-dir",
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+  "--uhead",
+  "workdir/selector/pool_mth_k8_chat/uhead_selector.json",
+  "--task-prior",
+  "workdir/bayes/mth_task_prior.json",
+  "--tier",
+  "think16k=workdir/layer_probe/think16k_tier.json",
+  "--ubins",
+  "5",
+  "--out",
+  "workdir/bayes/sc_task_u5.json"
+ ],
+ "git": {
+  "commit": "0a7204adddcc8e6f8fb07f1c3871ba31f3332689",
+  "branch": "HEAD",
+  "subject": "Add bayes_sc: Bayesian adaptive self-consistency with escalation, offline",
+  "dirty": false,
+  "dirty_files": []
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+ "gpus": {
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+}