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README.md
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license: cc-by-nc-
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tags:
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- time series
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- forecasting
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# Yug
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**Yug** is a 271.8M-parameter time series foundation model developed by
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Birla AI Labs for **zero-shot probabilistic forecasting**. A single checkpoint
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forecasts a previously unseen series without task-specific training or
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per-series tuning: given a historical context and a forecast horizon, it
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returns a predictive distribution summarised by quantile levels. It supports
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**univariate**, **multivariate**, and **covariate-informed** forecasting
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within a single architecture, and decodes a whole block of future points per
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forward pass rather than one step at a time.
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<!-- TODO(release): one or two sentences on the architecture family / what it's
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inspired by, once that's confirmed for public description (mirrors the
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"Inspired by the T5 encoder" line in comparable model cards). -->
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## Links
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- π» [GitHub](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/
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- π [Quickstart notebook](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/
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- π [Issues and questions](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/
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<!-- TODO(release): add a technical report / paper link here once public. -->
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## Overview
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| Capability | Yug |
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| Univariate forecasting | β
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| Cross-learning across items | β
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| Multivariate forecasting | β
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| Covariates | β
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| Probabilistic (quantile) output | β
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| Max context length |
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| Quantile levels | 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 |
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Quantile levels are fixed at training time: this checkpoint cannot emit a
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level it was not trained on.
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## Model architecture
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"birlaailabs/yug", device_map="cuda"
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)
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# Synthetic
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HORIZON =
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rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
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t = np.arange(
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signal = (
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+ rng.normal(0, 3.0, len(t)) # noise
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).astype(np.float32)
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context, truth = signal[:
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forecast = pipeline.predict(
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context,
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prediction_length=HORIZON,
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freq="D", # a model input, not metadata: pandas offset alias
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num_samples=100,
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seed=0, # makes the call reproducible
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)
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print(forecast.median) # (
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print(forecast.quantile(0.9)) # (
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print(forecast.interval()) # {"lower": (
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print(forecast.to_dataframe().head())
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```
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```bibtex
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@software{yug_2026,
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title = {Yug: a foundation model for probabilistic time-series forecasting},
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author = {Aaditya Jain*
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year = {2026},
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}
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```
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*Equal contribution.
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## License
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Model weights
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[CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) β
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noncommercial use only, no redistribution of modified/fine-tuned versions,
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attribution required. The inference code and model architecture on
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[GitHub](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/model-release) are licensed
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separately under
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[PolyForm Noncommercial 1.0.0](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/model-release/blob/main/LICENSE).
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---
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license: cc-by-nc-4.0
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tags:
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- time series
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- forecasting
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# Yug
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**Yug** is a 271.8M-parameter time series foundation model developed by Birla AI Labs for **zero-shot probabilistic forecasting**. A single checkpoint forecasts a previously unseen series without task-specific training or per-series tuning: given a historical context and a forecast horizon, it returns a predictive distribution summarised by quantile levels. It supports **univariate** and **covariate-informed** forecasting within a single architecture.
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## Links
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- π» [GitHub](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/yug)
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- π [Quickstart notebook](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/yug/blob/main/notebooks/quickstart.ipynb)
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- π [Issues and questions](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/yug/issues)
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<!-- TODO(release): add a technical report / paper link here once public. -->
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## Overview
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| Capability | Yug |
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|---|---|
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| Univariate forecasting | β
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| Covariates | β
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| Probabilistic (quantile) output | β
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| Max context length | 2048 |
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| Quantile levels | 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 |
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## Model architecture
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"birlaailabs/yug", device_map="cuda"
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)
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# Synthetic signal: trend + 64-step season + 12-step season + noise
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CONTEXT, HORIZON, PERIOD = 2000, 256, 64
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rng = np.random.default_rng([20240902, 315595964, 0])
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t = np.arange(CONTEXT + HORIZON)
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trend = np.linspace(0.0, rng.uniform(50, 150), len(t))
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phase1, amp1 = rng.uniform(0, 6), rng.uniform(10, 30)
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phase2, amp2 = rng.uniform(0, 6), rng.uniform(2, 8)
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signal = (
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trend # trend
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+ amp1 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / PERIOD + phase1) # 64-step season
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+ amp2 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / 12 + phase2) # 12-step season
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+ rng.normal(0, 1.0, len(t)) # noise
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).astype(np.float32)
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context, truth = signal[:CONTEXT], signal[CONTEXT:]
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forecast = pipeline.predict(
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context,
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prediction_length=HORIZON,
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freq="D", # a model input, not metadata: pandas offset alias
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seed=0, # makes the call reproducible
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)
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print(forecast.median) # (256,) point forecast
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print(forecast.quantile(0.9)) # (256,)
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print(forecast.interval()) # {"lower": (256,), "upper": (256,)}
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print(forecast.to_dataframe().head())
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```
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```bibtex
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@software{yug_2026,
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title = {Yug: a foundation model for zero-shot probabilistic time-series forecasting},
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author = {Aaditya Jain* and Debdeep Sanyal* and Aaryan Nagpal and Dhruv Kumar and Murari Mandal and Saurabh Deshpande},
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year = {2026},
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organization = {Birla AI Labs},
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url = {https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/yug}
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}
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```
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*Equal contribution.
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## Acknowledgements
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We thank Karthik Sridhar, Deepak Lenka, Akash Kokare, Manya Pandey, and Varya Srivastava, as well as the extended Birla AI Labs team for their support.
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## License
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Model weights : [CC-BY-NC 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)
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Code : licensed separately β see [GitHub repository](https://github.com/birla-ai-labs/yug) for its license.
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