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Datasets:
AFOS-Analytics1
/
germany-2025-electoral-divergence
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Languages:
English
German
Portuguese
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Tags:
elections
germany
prediction-markets
polls
political-risk
divergence
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License:
cc-by-4.0
apache-2.0
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germany-2025-electoral-divergence
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Commit History
Jul 18
01:38
polish: move raw pulls to raw/
AFOS-Analytics1
Verified signature
5e81611
Jun 23
03:52
Add structural-context.csv (World Bank WGI governance + WDI economy & education); document in DATA_DICTIONARY
AFOS-Analytics1
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39a4c0b
03:27
Add structural-context.csv (World Bank WGI governance + WDI economy & education); document in DATA_DICTIONARY
AFOS-Analytics1
Verified signature
fc6c4e0
Jun 11
09:26
AFOS Germany 2025 Electoral Divergence — initial dataset
andrefelipe-afos
f843d84
Party-level: vote share (polls) vs probability of winning the most seats (market). AfD ~21% vote but ~3% to win the plurality; CDU/CSU ~30% vote → ~97% to win, and won. 349 polls + Polymarket + divergence. CC BY 4.0 + Apache 2.0. No personal data.
