ARC snapshot 2026-10-12.r3

README.md

@@ -49,7 +49,24 @@ configs:
 
 All rows come from ARC's **automated HTTP check**. 82 stores also have a **browser cart test** (`browser_cart_test`). A checkout link is not a purchase: ARC never pays or places an order.
 
-A free, open, per-store answer to one question: **can an AI shopping agent find products and reach checkout at this store?** Published by [ARC](https://www.arcreport.ai) at [arcreport.ai/data](https://www.arcreport.ai/data) under CC-BY-4.0. A new dated snapshot every Monday.
+A free, open, per-store answer to one question: **can an AI shopping agent find products and reach checkout at this store?** Published by [ARC](https://www.arcreport.ai) at [arcreport.ai/data](https://www.arcreport.ai/data) under CC-BY-4.0. One frozen canonical snapshot per week. Cite the version folder, not `latest/`. The US checkout citation is `canonicalUsCheckout` in `src/lib/dataset/canonical.ts`, which reads `latest/manifest.json` and that version's `store_answers.csv`. The process is in `docs/runbooks/canonical-snapshot.md`. Nothing there is automated.
+
+Headline numbers for each snapshot are in `summary.json` and `manifest.json` (`headline`), and at the top of [arcreport.ai/data](https://www.arcreport.ai/data). `summary.json` is computed from `store_answers.csv`.
+
+| Count | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| attempted | Every row in `store_answers.csv`. One store ARC attempted. |
+| completed | The check finished (`can_agents_get_checkout_link` is `yes` or `no`). Every percentage uses this denominator. |
+| failed | The check did not finish (`not_tested`). |
+| stores_checked | The same number as completed. The protocol matrix UCP and MCP denominator on the current snapshot is this same completed count. |
+
+## Valid UCP profile, US stores
+
+**Snapshot 2026-10-12.r3, US stores with completed checks, n=1,271**
+
+Shopify: 660 of 693 (95.2%). Non-Shopify: 50 of 578 (8.7%). All US: 710 of 1,271 (55.9%). A valid /.well-known UCP profile was served, not that checkout works.
+
+Counted from `store_answers.csv` in snapshot 2026-10-12.r3. `market` is United States. A completed check is `can_agents_get_checkout_link` of yes or no. Shopify is `platform` equal to Shopify. Non-Shopify is every other `platform` value, including Not detected and empty. The numerator is `ucp_profile_valid` yes.
 
 **Start with `store_answers`**: one row per store, plain yes/no answers, a one-sentence verdict, the single most useful fix, and a link to the store's page on ARC with the details.
 
@@ -63,16 +80,18 @@ A free, open, per-store answer to one question: **can an AI shopping agent find
 | `platform` | Shop software detected from the homepage (for example Shopify). "Not detected" means no known fingerprint (often a custom site). Empty means the homepage could not be read. |
 | `market` | Where the storefront sells (ARC's curated label, not measured). Empty when not labelled. |
 | `checked_at` | Date (UTC) of the latest automated check. |
-| `can_agents_find_products` | Could an AI agent search the store's products through a machine-readable agent connection and get a product back (the specific product, for the ~90 Index stores where ARC tests one)? yes / no / blocked (bot protection returned a block page to ARC's check) / not_tested (the check did not finish). "no" is about agent connections only: an agent may still click through the website like a person. |
+| `can_agents_find_products` | Could an AI agent search the store's products through a machine-readable agent connection and get a product back (the specific product, for the ~90 Index stores where ARC tests one)? yes / no / blocked (the store returned a block to ARC's automated HTTP check on checked_at; this is a response to ARC's checker, not a finding against the store) / not_tested (the check did not finish). "no" is about agent connections only: an agent may still click through the website like a person. |
 | `can_agents_read_price_and_stock` | Does the product page ARC opened list price and stock in structured data agents can read (schema.org Product)? yes / no / not_tested (no product page could be opened). |
 | `can_agents_get_checkout_link` | Did the agent connection hand back a checkout link for a product it returned? yes / no / not_tested. ARC stops there: it never pays or places an order, so "yes" means an agent can reach checkout, not that a purchase was completed. |
 | `agent_catalog_type` | Which agent connection answered with a product search tool: Shopify UCP MCP, Shopify Storefront MCP, or none. |
-| `ucp_profile_valid` | Does the store publish a valid Universal Commerce Protocol profile at /.well-known/ucp? yes / no / unknown (blocked or errored). |
+| `ucp_profile_valid` | Does the store publish a valid Universal Commerce Protocol profile at /.well-known/ucp? yes / no / unknown (blocked or errored). A valid profile is stricter than `publishes_ucp_file`: it needs a dated version and a shopping service. |
+| `publishes_ucp_file` | Does the store publish a UCP file at /.well-known/ucp? yes = HTTP 200 and JSON with a version plus services or capabilities. no = HTTP 404 or 410. unknown = HTTP 403, 429, 5xx, a timeout, or a response that was not JSON. Empty means this check is not recorded. Unknown and empty never count as no. This means the store publishes a UCP file. It does not mean an agent can reach checkout there. |
+| `ucp_file_checked_at` | UTC date of the /.well-known/ucp file check. Empty when that check is not recorded. |
 | `webmcp` | Does the homepage declare WebMCP tools for in-browser agents? yes / no / not_tested (checks before 6 Oct 2026). |
 | `blocks_ai_crawlers` | Does robots.txt disallow at least one of the AI crawlers ARC tracks (answer, search or training bots) from the homepage or tested product? yes / no / unknown (robots.txt could not be read). A rule in a file, not an observed block. |
 | `blocks_ai_answer_agents` | Same, but only for AI assistants fetching pages for a user (for example ChatGPT-User, Perplexity-User). yes / no / unknown. |
 | `browser_cart_test` | Result of ARC's separate browser cart test, where it exists (about 90 stores): for example "2 of 5 added to cart". Empty means no browser test. |
-| `verdict` | A plain answer to "can AI agents buy from this store?", the same sentence as the store's ARC page. The strongest answer is "AI agents can reach checkout": ARC's agent got a checkout link. ARC always stops before paying, so it never claims a completed purchase. |
+| `verdict` | A plain answer to "can AI agents reach checkout at this store?", the same sentence as the store's ARC page. The strongest answer is "AI agents can reach checkout": ARC's agent got a checkout link. ARC always stops before paying, so it never claims a completed purchase. |
 | `top_fix` | The most useful change for the store, in plain words, the same as the first fix on its ARC page. Empty when nothing is needed. |
 | `checked_by` | How the answer was measured: "automated HTTP check" or "automated HTTP check + browser cart test". |
 | `evidence_url` | The store's page on ARC with the full details. |
@@ -80,6 +99,13 @@ A free, open, per-store answer to one question: **can an AI shopping agent find
 | `source` | How the store got into ARC: index (weekly browser Index), directory (ARC's curated list), submitted (added by the public) or checked (one-off check). |
 | `snapshot_date` | Date of this snapshot. |
 | `method_version` | Version of ARC's method used. |
+| `direct_agent_integration` | Public files an agent can read without an account: detected, not_found, or unknown. Empty means not recorded. Unknown and empty are not a no. A detected file is not a claim that an agent can reach checkout. |
+| `direct_agent_integration_checked_at` | UTC date of that file check. Empty when not recorded. |
+| `guest_checkout_offered` | During the no-payment checkout check: yes, no, or unknown. Empty means not recorded. ARC does not create an account. Unknown and empty are not a no. |
+| `account_creation_required` | Whether that page required an account and did not offer guest checkout. yes / no / unknown. Empty means not recorded. |
+| `account_signup_without_captcha_or_phone` | Whether a signup form was already on the page with no captcha and no phone check. yes / no / unknown. ARC does not open or submit the form. |
+| `account_guest_checked_at` | UTC date of the account and guest reading. Empty when not recorded. |
+| `block_reason` | Recorded reason for a block on the automated HTTP check: robots_disallow, bot_wall, tls, or other. Empty when the check was not blocked, when no reason was recorded, or on a snapshot exported before this column. Empty is not a bot wall. Bot protection or a bot wall is named only when this cell is bot_wall. A block is a response to ARC's checker, not a finding against the store. |
 
 ## How it is measured
 
@@ -90,10 +116,11 @@ Two separate methods. Every row says which one it comes from (`checked_by`).
 
 ## Limitations (please read before citing)
 
+- **Cite a figure with its n, its denominator, and its snapshot.** Field names, numerators, and what each headline count does not prove: [metrics glossary](https://www.arcreport.ai/methodology/metrics).
 - **A checkout link is not a purchase.** ARC stops at the link. "yes" means an agent could reach checkout through the store's agent connection on the check date, not that an order would succeed.
 - **"no" is about agent connections only.** A store without one can still be used by an agent that clicks through the website like a person. Our browser cart test covers that, but only for fewer than 100 stores.
-- **One check, one moment.** Each answer is the store's latest check (dates in `checked_at`). Stores, bot protection and stock change; a single failed check can be temporary.
-- **"blocked" means ARC's own request got a block page.** Real agents may or may not be treated the same way.
+- **One check, one moment.** Each answer is the store's latest check (dates in `checked_at`). Stores and stock change; a single failed check can be temporary.
+- **"blocked" means the store returned a block to ARC's automated HTTP check on checked_at.** This is a response to ARC's checker, not a finding against the store. Real agents may or may not be treated the same way. Bot protection or a bot wall is named only when `block_reason` is `bot_wall`.
 - **robots.txt is a rule in a file, not an observed block.** Bots may ignore it, and firewalls may block bots that robots.txt allows.
 - **The store list is a sample, not all of e-commerce.** It is ARC's curated directory plus stores the public submitted. It leans toward English-language, direct-to-consumer brands and toward Shopify.
 - **Labels such as `category` and `market` are ARC's curated labels**, not measurements.
@@ -111,16 +138,77 @@ The full technical detail stays available alongside `store_answers`:
 | `protocol_matrix` | Protocol × stage | Declared / Valid / Usable / Transacts counts per protocol |
 | `personas` | Browser test shopper | The five browser test personas |
 
-Field reference for the technical tables: [arcreport.ai/data/README.md](https://www.arcreport.ai/data/README.md). Method and changelog: [arcreport.ai/methodology](https://www.arcreport.ai/methodology).
+Field reference for the technical tables is below. Method and changelog: [arcreport.ai/methodology](https://www.arcreport.ai/methodology).
 
 ## What is excluded
 
-No scraped page text or product copy, no model-written prose, no costs, no emails, accounts or visitor data. Only ARC's own answers, signals, URLs and dates.
+No scraped page text or product copy, no model-written prose, no costs, no emails, accounts or visitor data. Only ARC's own answers, signals, URLs and dates. OpenStreetMap-derived directory rows are left out: they are ODbL share-alike, and this dataset stays CC-BY-4.0.
+
+Older snapshots in /data/history can include OpenStreetMap-derived hosts. Those hosts are © OpenStreetMap contributors under the Open Database License (ODbL), not CC-BY-4.0. Current CC-BY exports leave those hosts out.
+
+Hugging Face card (abab7575/arc-open `docs/dataset-card.md`, same paragraph): OpenStreetMap-derived directory rows are left out of this CC-BY-4.0 dataset because they are ODbL share-alike. Older snapshots in /data/history can include those hosts. Those hosts are © OpenStreetMap contributors under the Open Database License (ODbL), not CC-BY-4.0.
 
 ## Licence, citation, corrections
 
 [CC-BY-4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Attribution: **ARC, arcreport.ai**. Store owners can ask for a correction or removal at [arcreport.ai/contact](https://www.arcreport.ai/contact).
 
+## Files and versioning
+
+Each snapshot lives in its own immutable version folder and is copied to `latest/`. Every table comes as CSV and Parquet, with a `manifest.json` holding row counts, headline numbers, `snapshot_version`, `generated_at` (UTC) and `supersedes`.
+
+### Versioning
+
+- A version folder never changes once published. The first export on a date is `YYYY-MM-DD/`; any later export on the same date is published as `YYYY-MM-DD.r2/`, `YYYY-MM-DD.r3/` and so on. The exporter refuses to overwrite an existing version.
+- `latest/` is a moving copy of the newest version. To cite exact numbers, cite the version folder (for example `/data/2026-10-07.r5/`), not `latest/`. On 13 Oct 2026 the answer text was corrected in `latest/store_answers` and in the 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-12 folders. `2026-10-09` has no OpenStreetMap-derived rows. `2026-10-12.r2` is mixed licence (CC BY 4.0, except 203 OpenStreetMap-derived rows under ODbL-1.0, attributed to OpenStreetMap contributors). `2026-10-12.r3` drops those rows and is the CC BY 4.0 edition `latest/` cites. Neither date's folders contain EachSpy-derived rows. See the erratum in `/data/history/README.md`.
+- `versions.json` lists every version with its `generated_at`, `supersedes`, method version, stores checked and row counts.
+- Before this rule (7 Oct 2026), `/data/2026-10-07/` was regenerated four times during the day (rails_checks went from 607 to 647 to 1,044 rows). All five published versions are restored byte-for-byte from the commits that published them, as `2026-10-07/` (r1) to `2026-10-07.r5/`; their manifests carry `restored.source_commit`.
+
+## Technical tables: field reference
+
+The technical tables carry `snapshot_date`, `method_version` and `evidence` (`measured` or `inferred`).
+
+### `stores`
+| Field | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| slug, store_name, domain, category | Store identity from ARC's public Index list |
+| homepage_url, product_url | The store homepage and the one product the checkout check starts from (query strings removed) |
+| score | ARC compatibility score, 0–100. Empty when a retest is pending |
+| agents_chose, agents_total | How many ARC browser personas added the product to the cart, out of how many |
+| failure_reason | Fixed label for where agents stopped (e.g. `Blocked at the size picker`), `Added to cart (stopped before payment)` when every shopper got the product into the cart (ARC never pays; older snapshots said `Finished the purchase`), or `other` |
+| persona_a … persona_e | Per-persona outcome: `chose`, `missed` or `error`. These are ARC browser shopper personas run on ARC-chosen models, not named consumer agents. Legacy alias ids (muse, instinct, grok, openai-dots, openclaw) are in `personas.csv` (`legacy_alias_id`) |
+| index_week, scanned_at | ISO week and UTC time of the scan |
+| evidence | `measured` when all five shoppers ran and a score exists; `inferred` otherwise |
+
+### `rails_checks`
+| Field | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| domain, slug, category, product_url | Store checked and the product page used (query strings removed; cart URLs are never stored) |
+| status | `completed` or `failed` |
+| webmcp, storefront_mcp, ucp_mcp | Whether each interface was detected. `webmcp` is empty (not measured) for checks before 18:00 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, when detection started |
+| catalog_tool, catalog_found | Catalog tool exposed and whether it returned the product |
+| cart_status | `link`, `unavailable`, `not_offered`, `error` or `skipped` |
+| ucp_profile | `/.well-known/ucp` validity: `valid`, `invalid`, `absent`, `blocked` or `error`. Stricter than `ucp_file`. |
+| ucp_file | `/.well-known/ucp` file: `detected` (HTTP 200 JSON with a version plus services or capabilities), `not_found` (404 or 410), `unknown` (403, 429, 5xx, timeout or non-JSON), or empty when not recorded. Empty and unknown are not a no. This is a published file, not a completed purchase. |
+| mcp_blocked | The store blocked the MCP request |
+| checked_at | UTC time of the check |
+| evidence | `measured` for a clean completed check; `inferred` when blocked, errored or failed |
+| source | `index` (ARC Index store), `directory` (curated list), `submitted` (added by the public via /agent-checkout/submit, the API or MCP, after validation) or `checked` (one-off check only) |
+
+### `adoption_history`
+`week` (ISO), `source` (`index` or `rails`), `metric` (e.g. `stores_scored`, `mean_score`, `stores_any_persona_carted`, `ucp_profile_valid`, `ucp_file_detected`, `ucp_file_not_found`, `ucp_file_unknown`, `cart_link`, `webmcp`, `webmcp_measured`) and `value`. The UCP file adoption count is `ucp_file_detected` out of `ucp_file_detected` plus `ucp_file_not_found`. `ucp_file_unknown` is separate. A missing result is not counted.
+
+One definition with `stores`: index metrics use the latest completed scan per published Index store within the week, so the current week matches `stores` exactly. Rails metrics count each host once per week (its latest attempt that week). `webmcp` counts only checks after detection began; its denominator is `webmcp_measured`.
+
+### `personas`
+`persona`, `label`, `style`, `legacy_alias_id`, `method_version`.
+
+### `protocol_matrix`
+See [arcreport.ai/protocols](https://www.arcreport.ai/protocols).
+
+## Host discovery sources
+
+Checker host lists may include hostnames found in the Common Crawl columnar URL index (`cc-index:` plus the crawl id). Data from Common Crawl (https://commoncrawl.org). Hostnames only. Common Crawl page content is not stored or republished. Common Crawl terms are at https://commoncrawl.org/terms-of-use. Exported source tags are limited to `cc-index:`, `wikidata:`, `osm:`, `expansion:`, `source:wikidata`, and `source:tranco`. EachSpy and campaign tags are not exported.
+
 ## Files in this snapshot
 
 Mirror of the official ARC open dataset at [arcreport.ai/data](https://www.arcreport.ai/data), updated after each weekly snapshot (Mondays). Files are byte-for-byte copies of ARC's published CSV and Parquet.