Upload MISSION_US_N0.md

MISSION_US_N0.md

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+# AtmosIQ — MISSION N-0: US EXPANSION SPEC
+
+**Objective:** expand supervision ~10× by ingesting US EPA-monitored regions into the SAME
+54-column, same-grid-framework pipeline, continue SSL from `encoder_v3.pt`, and test the
+pre-registered transfer rule.
+
+**N-1 adopt rule (frozen before any US run):** the judge stays **India spatial-held-out M2**.
+Adopt the US-trained encoder only if India pm2_5 or pm10 improves ≥ +0.03 AND no pollutant
+drops > 0.02. US numbers are diagnostics, never the verdict.
+
+---
+
+## §1 Regions — whole states, station-dense (user decision: full states, proper graph web)
+
+| Region | States | Why |
+|---|---|---|
+| **US_CA** (mandatory) | California | Densest monitoring network in the US; terrain diversity (coast/valley/mountain — exercises the terrain mask); wildfire PM events (heavy-tail regime the log-Student-t was built for) |
+| **US_NE** (mandatory) | New York + New Jersey + Pennsylvania | Urban corridor — traffic NO2/CO regime (our weakest species gets dense supervision) |
+| **US_GL** (optional, if time) | Illinois + Indiana + Ohio | Industrial belt — SO2/industrial sources |
+
+Rules: one contiguous 10 km equal-area grid **per region** (projection: US Albers EPSG:5070),
+full grid inside state boundaries (unlabeled context cells INCLUDED — the graph needs them;
+station-only rows would kill GAT/SSL/orphan). `node_id` scheme: `US_CA_xxxxx_yyyyy` —
+permanent, never reassigned, per §2 of the frozen architecture. Per-region `node_set_hash`.
+
+## §2 Label source — EPA AQS (the "US CPCB")
+
+Pre-generated daily files: `aqs.epa.gov/aqsweb/airdata/` → `daily_<param>_<year>.zip`, 2018–2026.
+
+| pollutant | AQS parameter code | EPA unit | convert to (CPCB convention) |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| pm2_5 | 88101 (FRM) + 88502 (non-FRM) | µg/m³ | as-is (merge both codes, FRM wins on conflict) |
+| pm10 | 81102 | µg/m³ | as-is |
+| o3 | 44201 | **ppm** | µg/m³ = ppm × 1000 × 48.00/24.45 |
+| no2 | 42602 | **ppb** | µg/m³ = ppb × 46.01/24.45 |
+| so2 | 42401 | **ppb** | µg/m³ = ppb × 64.07/24.45 |
+| co | 42101 | **ppm** | **mg/m³** = ppm × 28.01/24.45 (CPCB uses mg/m³ for CO!) |
+| nh3 | — not in routine AQS | mask = 0 everywhere (the mask design handles this) |
+
+⚙️ pinned: conversion at 25 °C / 1 atm (24.45 L/mol). **🛑 THE unit-conversion assert is
+mandatory at ingestion** — write a test that a known ppb value round-trips; this is the CO-bug
+class from India, now ×6 pollutants. Verify converted US medians land in physically sane
+ranges vs India (US pm2_5 median ≈ 5–15 µg/m³ — much cleaner air is EXPECTED, not a bug).
+
+## §3 Feature columns — SAME 54, source mapping
+
+- **Group A (18):** identical products — S5P L2 (AWS Open Data), MODIS/VIIRS AOD, FIRMS
+  fire_count/frp. Same per-pixel qa handling, same missingness flags.
+- **Group B (12):** ERA5 (AWS `era5-pds`), same 12 columns. `u/v_1330ist` → **13:30 LOCAL
+  SOLAR time** per region (S5P overpasses ~13:30 local everywhere; India used IST for the
+  same reason). US_CA ≈ 13:30 PT, US_NE/GL ≈ 13:30 ET/CT.
+- **Group C (13):** global sources — same DEM, OSM (roads/industry distances + densities),
+  population, MODIS NDVI. **🛑 land_use_class MUST come from the same GEE asset/vocabulary
+  as India** (embedding indices are shared with the pretrained encoder); assert max class <
+  n_landuse from India's meta.json.
+- **Group D (16):** same 16 columns, US values: `is_holiday` = US federal holidays;
+  `festival_firecracker` = **July 4 (±1) + Dec 31/Jan 1** (real US PM spikes);
+  `festival_biomass` = 0; `crop_burning_intensity` = 0 in V1 (US ag-burning is regional and
+  poorly dated — a zeroed channel is honest, a guessed one is not); monsoon triplet = 0 /
+  inactive; `covid_lockdown_intensity` = US ranges (≈ 2020-03-19 .. 2020-05-31 ramp, state
+  variation ignored in V1); `grap_stage` = 0 always (no US equivalent); `heatwave_season` =
+  same May-centered ramp.
+
+## §4 Normalization + splits — frozen decisions
+
+- **India `norm.npz` stats FROZEN and applied to US features** (post-unit-conversion). The
+  encoder's weights are defined in India-standardized space; refitting stats would break the
+  init. US standardized values will sit off-center (cleaner air) — that is signal.
+- **y_logmean/y_logstd: India's frozen too.** US targets standardize to negative territory —
+  correct and expected.
+- **Splits per region:** same D-0 protocol — detrended correlogram → block size (run it; if
+  r_ac ≈ India's, reuse 300 km blocks) + targeted 50 km hard-leak buffer, connectivity check
+  after removal. Same `M0-mini` gate per region: uniqueness-asserted ingestion, edge build
+  (KNN k=8, r0=40 km — pinned values unchanged), terrain mask (Sierra Nevada / Appalachians
+  will produce barrier edges — sanity-check their locations like Himalaya was checked).
+
+## §5 Training plan — weights carry forward, India stays the exam
+
+```
+encoder_v3.pt (India SSL)                          ← INIT (never from scratch)
+  → SSL continue: pooled India + US days            (no labels needed; ssl_epochs ~10,
+                                                     region-balanced day sampling)
+  → head: pooled labels, India-weighted             (India:US sample weight ~2:1 start)
+  → FINAL head FT: India-only (3-min, as always)
+  → JUDGE: India spatial-held-out M2 vs N-1 rule
+```
+
+US-side diagnostics reported alongside (US spatial-held-out per region) but never gate.
+All existing pins carry: TP-1 full-graph per region, TP-4 guards, TP-7 val_mse selection,
+seed 42, λ_phys=0, orphan in SSL blackout only.
+
+## §6 Build order + M0-US gate checklist
+
+1. EPA daily files → per-region station list → region grids + graphs (+hash, terrain mask)
+2. 12-source feature ingestion per region (reuse India ingestion code, region configs)
+3. **M0-US mini-gate:** 0 duplicate keys · unit round-trip test green · converted medians
+   sane · land-use vocab assert · mean_deg ≥ 4 per region graph · D-0 correlogram + split
+   + hard-leak = 0 · labeled-fraction report per pollutant
+4. assemble → tensors per region → pooled SSL continue → probe (scoreboard) → heads → N-1
+
+**Timeline honesty:** India ingestion took days with debugging; realistic here = 2–4 days
+data (AWS-resident sources help), 1 day multi-region training-loop code, 1 day runs.
+Nothing right of M0-US runs before M0-US passes — same discipline as India.
+
+## §7 What would falsify this mission
+
+If pooled training moves India M2 by < +0.03 (N-1 not fired), the conclusion is recorded as:
+"cross-country label transfer does not close the India gap at this scale" — encoder reverts
+(one `cp`), India V1 stands, and the mission still yields a US-validated model + the
+strongest possible internship narrative either way. Pre-registered, no rationalizing after.