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  1. README.md +54 -25
  2. SHA256SUMS +0 -0
  3. buse_v1.1.0/audit.md +27 -0
  4. buse_v1.1.0/factor_universe.json +125 -0
  5. buse_v1.1.0/hash_manifest.json +0 -0
  6. buse_v1.1.0/metadata.json +308 -0
  7. buse_v1.1.0/replicated_carrier_report.json +0 -0
  8. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2000-12.json +26 -0
  9. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2001-05.json +26 -0
  10. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2001-09.json +26 -0
  11. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2002-03.json +26 -0
  12. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2003-02.json +26 -0
  13. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2004-10.json +26 -0
  14. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2005-07.json +26 -0
  15. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2005-11.json +26 -0
  16. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2006-01.json +26 -0
  17. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2008-05.json +26 -0
  18. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2008-09.json +26 -0
  19. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2009-04.json +26 -0
  20. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2009-12.json +26 -0
  21. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2010-04.json +26 -0
  22. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2010-08.json +26 -0
  23. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2010-12.json +26 -0
  24. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2011-05.json +26 -0
  25. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2011-09.json +26 -0
  26. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2012-03.json +26 -0
  27. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2013-02.json +26 -0
  28. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2014-10.json +26 -0
  29. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2015-07.json +26 -0
  30. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2015-11.json +26 -0
  31. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2016-01.json +26 -0
  32. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2018-05.json +26 -0
  33. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2018-09.json +26 -0
  34. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2019-04.json +26 -0
  35. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2019-12.json +26 -0
  36. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2020-01.json +26 -0
  37. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2022-06.json +26 -0
  38. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2022-10.json +26 -0
  39. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2023-07.json +26 -0
  40. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2023-11.json +26 -0
  41. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2024-03.json +26 -0
  42. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2025-02.json +26 -0
  43. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2026-04.json +26 -0
  44. buse_v1.1.0/scale_diagnostics_by_month/2026-08.json +26 -0
  45. imp_v1_1_0/metadata.json +11 -0
  46. imp_v1_1_0/specific_risk_overlay_by_month/asof_dates.json +130 -0
  47. imp_v1_1_0/specific_risk_overlay_hash_manifest.json +516 -0
  48. retail_v1_1_0/metadata.json +11 -0
  49. retail_v1_1_0/specific_risk_overlay_by_month/asof_dates.json +106 -0
  50. retail_v1_1_0/specific_risk_overlay_hash_manifest.json +420 -0
README.md CHANGED
@@ -17,49 +17,71 @@ factor risk model. Code, methodology and audit suite live in the
17
  [buse-open repository](https://github.com/Binomial-Capital-Management/buse-open).
18
 
19
  This repository holds derived model quantities only — no raw market data.
20
- 316 monthly point-in-time partitions spanning **2000-01 to 2026-08**
21
- (~642 MB, 1,802 parquet files).
22
 
23
  > The dataset viewer is disabled: this is a set of six parallel
24
- > monthly-partitioned parquet trees, not a single tabular dataset with
25
  > train/test splits. Load the tree you need directly (see below).
26
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27
  ## Contents
28
 
29
- ### `buse_v1.0.0/` — core model
30
 
31
  | Tree | Partitions | Coverage | Size |
32
  |---|---|---|---|
33
- | `exposures_by_month/` | 316 | 2000-01 .. 2026-08 | 313 MB |
34
- | `specific_risk_by_month/` | 315 | 2000-06 .. 2026-08 | 217 MB |
35
- | `proxy_exposures_by_month/` | 312 | 2000-09 .. 2026-08 | 42 MB |
36
- | `factor_covariance_by_month/` | 312 | 2000-09 .. 2026-08 | 24 MB |
37
- | `proxy_specific_by_month/` | 312 | 2000-09 .. 2026-08 | 3.2 MB |
38
- | `scale_diagnostics_by_month/` | 312 | 2000-09 .. 2026-08 | 1.2 MB |
39
 
40
  Staggered start dates are estimator warm-up, not missing data: specific
41
- risk needs a 5-month EWMA burn-in, proxies and diagnostics 8 months.
 
 
42
 
43
  Partitions are Hive-style (`month=YYYY-MM/part.parquet`) and hold **daily**
44
- point-in-time rows — a typical exposures partition is ~40,800 rows
45
- (~1,777 tickers x ~23 trading days) x 122 columns, plus the `month`
46
- partition key when read through `hf://`.
47
 
48
  Also at the tree root: `factor_returns.parquet` (full daily history),
49
  `exposures_latest.parquet`, `specific_risk_latest.parquet`,
50
  `factor_covariance.parquet`, `factor_universe.json`, `metadata.json`,
51
- `calibration_report.json`, `hash_manifest.json`, `audit.md`.
 
52
 
53
- ### `imp_v1_0_0/` and `retail_v1_0_0/` — specific-risk overlays
 
 
 
 
 
 
54
 
55
  Base-agnostic monthly tables of `[date, ticker, variance_multiplier]` with
56
- hard bounds `[0.25, 4.0]`. Each tree carries `metadata.json`,
57
- `evaluation_report.json` and a hash manifest.
58
 
59
  | Overlay | Partitions | Coverage |
60
  |---|---|---|
61
- | `imp_v1_0_0/` | 127 | 2016-01 .. 2026-07 |
62
- | `retail_v1_0_0/` | 103 | 2018-01 .. 2026-07 |
63
 
64
  - **IMP** — per-ticker multiplier from the cross-sectionally centered
65
  implied/realized volatility ratio. Zero fitted parameters.
@@ -67,6 +89,13 @@ hard bounds `[0.25, 4.0]`. Each tree carries `metadata.json`,
67
  volume (Wikipedia attention z-score minus volume z-score), with one
68
  calibration constant frozen before out-of-sample evaluation.
69
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
70
  ## Usage
71
 
72
  Download the full tree, or just the part you need:
@@ -74,13 +103,13 @@ Download the full tree, or just the part you need:
74
  ```bash
75
  pip install huggingface_hub[cli]
76
 
77
- # everything (~642 MB)
78
  hf download BinomialTechnologies/buse-artifacts \
79
  --repo-type dataset --local-dir artifacts
80
 
81
  # one overlay only
82
  hf download BinomialTechnologies/buse-artifacts --repo-type dataset \
83
- --local-dir artifacts --include 'imp_v1_0_0/*'
84
  ```
85
 
86
  Read a single partition without downloading the rest:
@@ -89,7 +118,7 @@ Read a single partition without downloading the rest:
89
  import pandas as pd
90
 
91
  url = ("hf://datasets/BinomialTechnologies/buse-artifacts/"
92
- "buse_v1.0.0/exposures_by_month/month=2025-10/part.parquet")
93
  exposures = pd.read_parquet(url)
94
  ```
95
 
@@ -98,13 +127,13 @@ Apply an overlay to any risk model's specific variances:
98
  ```python
99
  from buse1.overlays.loader import apply, load_overlay
100
 
101
- mult, provenance = load_overlay("artifacts/imp_v1_0_0", decision_date)
102
  conditioned = apply(base_specific_variance_by_ticker, mult)
103
  ```
104
 
105
  ## Integrity
106
 
107
- `SHA256SUMS` covers all 2,129 artifact files:
108
 
109
  ```bash
110
  cd artifacts && sha256sum -c SHA256SUMS
 
17
  [buse-open repository](https://github.com/Binomial-Capital-Management/buse-open).
18
 
19
  This repository holds derived model quantities only — no raw market data.
20
+ 317 monthly point-in-time partitions spanning **2000-01 to 2026-09**
21
+ (~1.27 GB, 1,807 parquet files).
22
 
23
  > The dataset viewer is disabled: this is a set of six parallel
24
+ > monthly-partitioned trees, not a single tabular dataset with
25
  > train/test splits. Load the tree you need directly (see below).
26
 
27
+ ## What changed in v1.1.0
28
+
29
+ `buse_v1.1.0` is a **survivorship-complete** rebuild of the same model
30
+ specification (`risk_model_version` is unchanged, `buse1_th_v1`). The
31
+ estimation universe now carries delisted names through their full trading
32
+ history, so historical cross-sections are roughly 50% larger than in
33
+ v1.0.0 (a typical 2025 exposures partition is ~60,800 rows over ~2,650
34
+ tickers, against ~40,800 rows over ~1,777 tickers before). The latest
35
+ cross-section covers 2,437 assets as of 2026-09-01. Partition layout,
36
+ column schema and hash-manifest contract are unchanged.
37
+
38
+ The previous release (`buse_v1.0.0`, `imp_v1_0_0`, `retail_v1_0_0`) remains
39
+ available in this repository's git history.
40
+
41
  ## Contents
42
 
43
+ ### `buse_v1.1.0/` — core model
44
 
45
  | Tree | Partitions | Coverage | Size |
46
  |---|---|---|---|
47
+ | `exposures_by_month/` | 317 | 2000-01 .. 2026-09 | 614 MB |
48
+ | `specific_risk_by_month/` | 316 | 2000-06 .. 2026-09 | 496 MB |
49
+ | `proxy_exposures_by_month/` | 312 | 2000-09 .. 2026-09 | 112 MB |
50
+ | `factor_covariance_by_month/` | 313 | 2000-09 .. 2026-09 | 28 MB |
51
+ | `proxy_specific_by_month/` | 312 | 2000-09 .. 2026-09 | 6.3 MB |
52
+ | `scale_diagnostics_by_month/` | 313 | 2000-09 .. 2026-09 | 0.3 MB |
53
 
54
  Staggered start dates are estimator warm-up, not missing data: specific
55
+ risk needs a 5-month EWMA burn-in, proxies and diagnostics 8 months. The
56
+ final `2026-09` partition holds the single session available at build
57
+ time (2026-09-01); it is a valid point-in-time snapshot, not a full month.
58
 
59
  Partitions are Hive-style (`month=YYYY-MM/part.parquet`) and hold **daily**
60
+ point-in-time rows x 122 columns, plus the `month` partition key when read
61
+ through `hf://`. `scale_diagnostics_by_month/` is one JSON file per month.
 
62
 
63
  Also at the tree root: `factor_returns.parquet` (full daily history),
64
  `exposures_latest.parquet`, `specific_risk_latest.parquet`,
65
  `factor_covariance.parquet`, `factor_universe.json`, `metadata.json`,
66
+ `hash_manifest.json`, `replicated_carrier_exposures.parquet`,
67
+ `replicated_carrier_report.json`, `audit.md`.
68
 
69
+ `audit.md` is the build-time audit for this generation as run. It records
70
+ one FAIL (`E.proxies`: the QQQ anchor's projected beta of 1.37 sits outside
71
+ the audit band) that was reviewed and accepted before release; the other
72
+ 21 checks pass or flag informationally. The v1.0.0 calibration matrix
73
+ (`calibration_report.json`) has not yet been re-run on this generation.
74
+
75
+ ### `imp_v1_1_0/` and `retail_v1_1_0/` — specific-risk overlays
76
 
77
  Base-agnostic monthly tables of `[date, ticker, variance_multiplier]` with
78
+ hard bounds `[0.25, 4.0]`. Each tree carries `metadata.json` and a hash
79
+ manifest.
80
 
81
  | Overlay | Partitions | Coverage |
82
  |---|---|---|
83
+ | `imp_v1_1_0/` | 128 | 2016-01 .. 2026-08 |
84
+ | `retail_v1_1_0/` | 104 | 2018-01 .. 2026-08 |
85
 
86
  - **IMP** — per-ticker multiplier from the cross-sectionally centered
87
  implied/realized volatility ratio. Zero fitted parameters.
 
89
  volume (Wikipedia attention z-score minus volume z-score), with one
90
  calibration constant frozen before out-of-sample evaluation.
91
 
92
+ Both overlays are rebuilt with the same frozen rules as v1.0.0, extended
93
+ by one month. The out-of-sample gate reports published with v1.0.0
94
+ (`evaluation_report.json`) were not re-run for this rebuild and are not
95
+ included here. Overlay inputs are not survivorship-complete: names that
96
+ delisted before the rebuild ride the base model (the documented
97
+ missing-symbol policy).
98
+
99
  ## Usage
100
 
101
  Download the full tree, or just the part you need:
 
103
  ```bash
104
  pip install huggingface_hub[cli]
105
 
106
+ # everything (~1.27 GB)
107
  hf download BinomialTechnologies/buse-artifacts \
108
  --repo-type dataset --local-dir artifacts
109
 
110
  # one overlay only
111
  hf download BinomialTechnologies/buse-artifacts --repo-type dataset \
112
+ --local-dir artifacts --include 'imp_v1_1_0/*'
113
  ```
114
 
115
  Read a single partition without downloading the rest:
 
118
  import pandas as pd
119
 
120
  url = ("hf://datasets/BinomialTechnologies/buse-artifacts/"
121
+ "buse_v1.1.0/exposures_by_month/month=2025-10/part.parquet")
122
  exposures = pd.read_parquet(url)
123
  ```
124
 
 
127
  ```python
128
  from buse1.overlays.loader import apply, load_overlay
129
 
130
+ mult, provenance = load_overlay("artifacts/imp_v1_1_0", decision_date)
131
  conditioned = apply(base_specific_variance_by_ticker, mult)
132
  ```
133
 
134
  ## Integrity
135
 
136
+ `SHA256SUMS` covers all 2,132 artifact files:
137
 
138
  ```bash
139
  cd artifacts && sha256sum -c SHA256SUMS
SHA256SUMS CHANGED
The diff for this file is too large to render. See raw diff
 
buse_v1.1.0/audit.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ # Risk model audit — buse1_th_v1
2
+ generated by scripts/audit_risk_model.py
3
+
4
+ - **PASS** `S.schema` — 107 non-market factors match manifest, stock, returns and 312 proxy months; covariance omissions explicitly inactive: ['industry:industry_agricultural_machinery', 'industry:industry_conglomerates', 'industry:industry_consumer_electronics', 'industry:industry_diversified_utilities', 'industry:industry_insurance_diversified', 'industry:industry_luxury_goods', 'industry:industry_tobacco', 'theme:theme_memory']
5
+ - **PASS** `A.factor_returns` — 108 factors x 6735 dates loaded
6
+ - **PASS** `A.factor_returns` — no market/style zero-gaps in the PIT era (>= 2006)
7
+ - **FLAG** `A.factor_returns` — 7 category factor-years with zeros (dummies can be legitimately absent) e.g. ['industry:industry_semiconductors:2000(6%)', 'theme:theme_semis:2000(6%)', 'industry:industry_semiconductors:2001(5%)', 'theme:theme_semis:2001(5%)', 'industry:industry_semiconductors:2002(3%)', 'industry:industry_semiconductors:2003(3%)']
8
+ - **PASS** `A.factor_returns` — no degenerate blowups
9
+ - **FLAG** `A.factor_returns` — 98 large-but-significant daily factor returns (crisis days, informational)
10
+ - **PASS** `A.factor_returns` — all non-dormant factor vols inside type bands
11
+ - **PASS** `B.exposures` — post-activation style coverage above the estimator floor across 30 sampled months x 8 styles
12
+ - **FLAG** `B.exposures` — 62 pre-activation or below era-target month-styles (informational breadth): ['2000-01:style_beta(0%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_size(100%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_value(40%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_momentum(0%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_quality(40%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_volatility(0%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_leverage(40%,pre-2000-06)', '2000-01:style_growth(40%,pre-2000-06)']
13
+ - **FLAG** `B.exposures` — z-score shape anomalies: ['2000-06:style_size(sd=1.00,max=3.5)', '2002-06:style_value(sd=1.00,max=4.0)', '2002-06:style_volatility(sd=1.00,max=3.5)', '2002-06:style_growth(sd=1.00,max=3.7)', '2003-06:style_leverage(sd=1.00,max=3.6)', '2003-06:style_growth(sd=1.00,max=3.6)', '2004-06:style_value(sd=1.00,max=5.4)', '2004-06:style_growth(sd=1.00,max=3.7)', '2005-06:style_value(sd=1.00,max=4.4)', '2005-06:style_leverage(sd=1.00,max=3.9)', '2005-06:style_growth(sd=1.00,max=4.3)', '2006-06:style_value(sd=1.00,max=4.4)']
14
+ - **PASS** `C.covariance` — PSD (min eig 1.03e-04, asym 0.00e+00, cond 1.6e+03)
15
+ - **PASS** `C.covariance` — all non-dormant covariance-implied vols in band (0 dormant excluded)
16
+ - **PASS** `C.covariance` — max |factor corr| 0.900
17
+ - **PASS** `D.specific` — specific vol p01/p50/p99 = 0.03/0.32/1.22 ann, 1.3% at structural bounds, all finite
18
+ - **FAIL** `E.proxies` — anchor ETF projected betas off: ['QQQ(projected=1.37)']
19
+ - **PASS** `I.construction` — tradability map: 97 eligible / 104 reviewed-ineligible
20
+ - **PASS** `I.construction` — 4 anchor instruments within 0.5 of realized beta
21
+ - **PASS** `I.construction` — carrier-method provenance complete across 312 months
22
+ - **PASS** `F.pit` — 135 component partitions across 27 sampled months re-hash to the manifest
23
+ - **PASS** `F.pit` — no partition dates beyond their asof
24
+ - **PASS** `G.realized` — 6 era checks @20d — 2011-08[R]: pred=30.7% real=29.5% ratio=1.04; 2017-12[O]: pred=6.3% real=8.9% ratio=0.71; 2020-03[R]: pred=62.9% real=43.3% ratio=1.45; 2022-06[R]: pred=24.8% real=17.7% ratio=1.40; 2024-04[O]: pred=12.0% real=10.0% ratio=1.20; 2026-06[O]: pred=11.8% real=8.4% ratio=1.42 | gating: 3 reaction era(s) vs absolute band [0.45, 2.2] | informational mean|log ratio| 0.251 vs baseline 0.258; onset eras informational
25
+ - **PASS** `H.delta` — largest factor-vol moves vs baseline: ['theme:theme_uranium: 19.1%->21.6%', 'industry:industry_computer_hardware: 18.7%->16.5%', 'sector:BASIC MATERIALS: 20.1%->17.9%', 'industry:industry_marine_shipping: 19.9%->21.9%', 'industry:industry_construction_materials: 18.0%->16.2%', 'style_beta: 14.5%->12.7%', 'industry:industry_software_application: 15.0%->13.4%', 'industry:industry_information_technology_services: 16.9%->15.3%']
26
+
27
+ **Summary: 1 FAIL / 4 FLAG / 17 PASS**
buse_v1.1.0/factor_universe.json ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,125 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ {
2
+ "artifact_model_id": "BUSE1-TH",
3
+ "factor_universe": {
4
+ "country": [],
5
+ "industry": [
6
+ "industry_aerospace_defense",
7
+ "industry_agricultural_machinery",
8
+ "industry_airlines_airports_air_services",
9
+ "industry_apparel_retail",
10
+ "industry_asset_management",
11
+ "industry_auto_manufacturers",
12
+ "industry_auto_parts",
13
+ "industry_banks_diversified",
14
+ "industry_banks_regional",
15
+ "industry_beverages_non_alcoholic",
16
+ "industry_biotechnology",
17
+ "industry_chemicals",
18
+ "industry_chemicals_specialty",
19
+ "industry_communication_equipment",
20
+ "industry_computer_hardware",
21
+ "industry_conglomerates",
22
+ "industry_construction_materials",
23
+ "industry_consumer_electronics",
24
+ "industry_discount_stores",
25
+ "industry_diversified_utilities",
26
+ "industry_drug_manufacturers_general",
27
+ "industry_drug_manufacturers_specialty_generic",
28
+ "industry_electrical_equipment_parts",
29
+ "industry_engineering_construction",
30
+ "industry_entertainment",
31
+ "industry_financial_capital_markets",
32
+ "industry_financial_credit_services",
33
+ "industry_financial_data_stock_exchanges",
34
+ "industry_gold",
35
+ "industry_hardware_equipment_parts",
36
+ "industry_household_personal_products",
37
+ "industry_industrial_distribution",
38
+ "industry_industrial_machinery",
39
+ "industry_industrial_materials",
40
+ "industry_information_technology_services",
41
+ "industry_insurance_diversified",
42
+ "industry_insurance_life",
43
+ "industry_insurance_property_casualty",
44
+ "industry_integrated_freight_logistics",
45
+ "industry_internet_content_information",
46
+ "industry_luxury_goods",
47
+ "industry_marine_shipping",
48
+ "industry_medical_care_facilities",
49
+ "industry_medical_devices",
50
+ "industry_medical_diagnostics_research",
51
+ "industry_medical_healthcare_plans",
52
+ "industry_medical_instruments_supplies",
53
+ "industry_oil_gas_equipment_services",
54
+ "industry_oil_gas_exploration_production",
55
+ "industry_oil_gas_integrated",
56
+ "industry_oil_gas_midstream",
57
+ "industry_oil_gas_refining_marketing",
58
+ "industry_packaged_foods",
59
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