id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ena8ypq0g9 | false | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Given the extent of smuggling infrastructure discovered, I don't see them trusting it to Egypt again ",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Shaked Koplewitz | p3TJSmcHOFMMakD7HyPS | public | contract | 1,717,235,646,822 | will-the-idf-relinquish-control-of | ShakedKoplewitz | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | Will the IDF relinquish control of the Philadelphi corridor before the end of 2024? | null | 0.521073 | 98.291092 | NO | null |
7rk7d3tbw19 | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have weak priors on this. But, I ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"mark... | Campbell Hutcheson | Ix0KslT1SmLsO4Hv3Vwf | public | contract | 1,717,235,832,878 | will-xais-gok-release-a-publicly-ac | CampbellHutcheson | Will xAI's Grok release a publicly accessible API by the end of 2024? | null | 0.698631 | 3.160215 | NO | null | |
tc37q2nqgx | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves \"No ceasefire agreement in May\".",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Muga Sofer | tLNHLWPEduCWUk6op3o8 | public | contract | 1,717,235,948,578 | if-there-is-a-ceasefire-agreement-i-2645ee0067d0 | MugaSofer | If there is a ceasefire agreement in May, will Israel agree to fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip? | null | null | 5,621.590721 | YES | 195826f8dbd4 | |
n7fmichgxqp | false | xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm surprised no one has mentioned ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"mark... | IY | n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk | public | contract | 1,717,235,966,742 | will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h | vitamind | Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference? | null | 0.601214 | 630.102532 | NO | null | |
is07no320x | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Why are people so confident they could beat him?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | YNsC29Fl1BlfMtidAMjB | public | contract | 1,717,236,215,578 | whowhat-do-manifold-users-think-the | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Who/what do Manifold users think they could beat (unarmed) in a fight? [Add responses.] | null | null | 61.467363 | NO | efda2dbc885b |
f13o266u4kj | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Seems like this should count? ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [... | Muga Sofer | 5EYuPngLazK71wpJEV9t | public | contract | 1,717,236,384,678 | will-dougdoug-upload-a-chat-vs-ai-v | MugaSofer | Will DougDoug upload a Chat vs AI video by the end of May? | null | 0.154409 | 668.732376 | YES | null | |
05f2i6q8gdl | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I missed the report released June 14, but I'm going through and resolving based on it now.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": ... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,236,622,212 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
jzlzro5oy9g | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,236,634,828 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
mygj11g4sfi | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The test results did not identify any concerns related to the quality of ... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,236,685,033 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
ty45bfxk82 | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "According to the report, intended speed was \"slow ahead\", which is 10 knots loaded. The ship was going 9 knots at time of power loss.",
"ty... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,236,899,556 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
nv0gjpxri6 | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Probably this as well. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
... | Muga Sofer | 5EYuPngLazK71wpJEV9t | public | contract | 1,717,237,093,840 | will-dougdoug-upload-a-chat-vs-ai-v | MugaSofer | Will DougDoug upload a Chat vs AI video by the end of May? | f13o266u4kj | 0.154409 | 668.732376 | YES | null | |
dkmievu6a9t | false | HpqjfDrXFYdI6GDxHdYQ5zLX2Mr2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No statement that he had stepped down, so resolved no",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc... | Ricky | xxtKC8ZiLHAv0ArF18BN | public | contract | 1,717,237,164,740 | will-extropics-guillaume-verdon-aka | Ricky30235 | Will Extropic's Guillaume Verdon aka BasedBeffJezos step down or otherwise be removed from his position by May 31? | null | 0.06 | 6,987.044622 | NO | null | |
r0iwg7ctpo8 | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "EDIT: While the crew's actions at the time of the incident seem praise-worthy, the root cause was in part a mistake in a previous day with the breakers... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,237,170,860 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
p2iiot4gjq | false | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Antoine Dusséaux | kezwSxmeDAvUKxvUJuXv | public | contract | 1,717,237,338,319 | will-x-country-recognize-palestine | adssx | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | Will X Country Recognize Palestine in 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
dj0jsptygd | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Let’s gooooo! Fired up for an exciting final! 🎶 The Champions! 🎶 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
... | The Official | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,717,237,593,023 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | 10thOfficial | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | null | null | null | null | null | |
1v48b242ee1 | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The report does not seem to assign blame so far. While the breaker failure seems to have been in part due to crew decisionmaking, I'm going to wait on ... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,237,608,543 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
69yl6fku8uh | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Also leaving this one open, seems possible given what we know but no confirmation.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragra... | Dan | LJ8RyJQhtVskqqzKiTuf | public | contract | 1,717,237,653,544 | what-factors-contributed-to-the-dal | DanMan314 | What factors contributed to The Dali hitting the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore? | null | null | 593.148184 | NO | 2c128a084d99 | |
800v70o5xzk | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "jmeqqb7dqne",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Mqrius | S4rQ5U2xAD9d1qRAOzwI | public | contract | 1,717,237,701,904 | will-dear-moon-launch-before-2032 | Mqrius | [Dear Moon Mission] Will dearMoon successfully launch before 2031? | vyczh3etixj | 0.01 | 1.878673 | YES | null | |
8v5cqtpiqj4 | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tet14gjm9l",
"label": "JessRiedel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Mqrius | THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | public | contract | 1,717,237,822,589 | in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta | Mqrius | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | tet14gjm9l | 0.636056 | 7,383.445209 | NO | null | |
iklpt7vm04 | false | FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Hmm, I see where we disagree: timezones. Both in my timezone (Europe/Amsterdam) and in UTC, the latest launch was on 1 June, but you of course used the... | Erwin Rossen | DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ | public | contract | 1,717,237,888,172 | how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98 | ErwinRossen | 🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024? | dh2kvbtux65 | null | 1,025.974621 | YES | efc0ee684647 | |
dt48179seo | false | nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5vnalmgdxn",
"label": "SecondHandYT",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Mqrius | opVNeK1AhEW4SvPRQfCh | public | contract | 1,717,237,932,393 | will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-th | Mqrius | Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]? | VP1qKxpsDBUzvkNV7352 | null | 456.505136 | NO | e73473b280ea | |
kgmernpi65e | false | FZ3u6wWnmrVRWi46jf1BeQJWXJE2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is how the page you linked to looks for me:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": nu... | Erwin Rossen | DsZQy2YXZILFW6bbAWQQ | public | contract | 1,717,238,204,235 | how-many-spacex-launches-will-occur-7466ab05ac98 | ErwinRossen | 🚀 How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During May 2024? | dh2kvbtux65 | null | 1,025.974621 | YES | efc0ee684647 | |
c7393gck518 | false | wNkuCd4vjqOgiwBIXCVPVHRneI63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does intentional malicious use of AI count?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Vanessa Kosoy | 3zuxV3C8Gcu2njJMQiGp | public | contract | 1,717,238,312,901 | will-advanced-ai-systems-be-found-t-fa343f4b5d92 | VanessaKosoy | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte_ALTuE-hy2f-vUSbXP-z4Ye8ZmPMTm1_h-6L7wCd1Mg=s96-c | Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035? | null | null | null | null | null |
1ksfxr9i9o9 | false | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolves to 38.6% (last-minute plot twist!). Thanks everyone for participating. Sadly I am too poor post-pivot to make another market for next month, b... | Johnny Ten-Numbers | zJ6kVqmG9c5j6fM1IjvK | public | contract | 1,717,238,972,313 | fivethirtyeights-biden-approval-rat-b772287aa9b6 | 1941159478 | FiveThirtyEight’s Biden approval rating on May 31? | null | null | null | null | null | |
afyg2zrxim6 | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Panfilo | HZN2VUAXKTGTNgKGOr3s | public | contract | 1,717,239,513,757 | who-will-make-it-to-june-2024-maste | Panfilo | Who will make it to June 2024 Masters league? | null | null | 123.022207 | YES | 2f89f7e97bb0 | |
xepiexqezt | false | 7JE9oUKORSYDSjP7CE9u9CWhK022 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9sdhy6vhkhi",
"label": "nuclearD",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Paul Schleuse | HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg | public | contract | 1,717,239,514,102 | what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f | PaulSchleuse | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIZErRrUpZKXmICmKwP0uXX8N4r3jTFjP6pXJN11G8=s96-c | What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include? | 9sdhy6vhkhi | null | null | null | null |
5c4h3zd0r2 | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5lolteqpnrl",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Predictor 🔥 | 4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0 | public | contract | 1,717,239,517,313 | will-borussia-dortmund-beat-bayern | Predictor | Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final | 5lolteqpnrl | 0.274988 | 455.704898 | NO | null | |
6fgcli9kavu | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rb2mz0pe2ja",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Steve Sokolowski | uupocHXvXPHkrCpmlpkw | public | contract | 1,717,239,826,194 | what-will-the-highest-temperature-i | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | What will the highest temperature in NYC be in May 2024? | rb2mz0pe2ja | null | null | null | null |
p8qc9on6xsp | false | GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What is the definition of soup",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | RemNi | dC6nzVSWPFd2ZXO1dYWB | public | contract | 1,717,240,356,128 | will-anyone-throw-soup-on-openais-d | RemNi | Will anyone throw soup on OpenAI's doors before 2026? | null | null | null | null | null | |
36qtjipbppd | false | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "afyg2zrxim6",
"label": "Panfilo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Dan | HZN2VUAXKTGTNgKGOr3s | public | contract | 1,717,240,377,602 | who-will-make-it-to-june-2024-maste | DanMan314 | Who will make it to June 2024 Masters league? | afyg2zrxim6 | null | null | null | null | |
80iuao8m5c5 | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "All the recalls, time decay, and not having done it when it would be remarkably early.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "par... | Panfilo | kFlg23t5u5jyER5N0w9u | public | contract | 1,717,240,665,095 | will-a-cybertruck-appear-in-a-mrbea | Panfilo | Will a cybertruck appear in a Mr. Beast video in before July 2024 | null | 0.602222 | 570.594356 | NO | null | |
cz315tahgk | false | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "k4h0gex410q",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Panfilo | aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps | public | contract | 1,717,240,809,746 | will-elon-musk-be-googled-more-than | Panfilo | Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US? | k4h0gex410q | 0.907782 | 3,816.055834 | NO | null | |
ad4jf9c8get | false | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "sorry for the poor quality but I promise it’s what I say it is",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"ty... | David Glidden | lzwiyoeyZyK9BabJbjju | public | contract | 1,717,240,870,532 | manifold-competition-state-vanity-l | dglid | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | [Manifold Competition] State Vanity License Plate Civil War | d5c1dzumdyr | null | 0 | NO | 328c067f565b |
fl20jqjcgkl | false | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "h1tyl57g39",
"label": "bence",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | vVv | ZlDNd204Hlc7GkXcztNI | public | contract | 1,717,241,573,764 | will-cnns-online-news-abandon-its-l | vVv | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | Will CNN's online news abandon its left-leaning bias by 2025 according to AllSides Media Bias ratings? | 69rcrho8uht | 0.284916 | -0 | NO | null |
fie9pxspiro | false | HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Ah my bad ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Daniel | 1Es6BcA3sdaqBLbKSHu4 | public | contract | 1,717,241,835,357 | by-when-will-kenshin9000-or-anyone | Daniel_MC | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c | By when will Kenshin9000 (or anyone else) “defeat all chess bots” using LLMs? (Permanent) | hvow7huwks | null | 2,454.080096 | NO | 6a81d47ad378 |
04e9o7u6zhuk | false | 8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "1ksfxr9i9o9",
"label": "1941159478",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Scott Supak | zJ6kVqmG9c5j6fM1IjvK | public | contract | 1,717,241,918,652 | fivethirtyeights-biden-approval-rat-b772287aa9b6 | ScottSupak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c | FiveThirtyEight’s Biden approval rating on May 31? | 1ksfxr9i9o9 | null | 440.600275 | YES | cfb3aeedb449 |
oxl6gb76vcd | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Please set the option colours to match the words 🙏 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | Un738LhOxh35Lr95WiyC | public | contract | 1,717,242,005,755 | predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-tie | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Predominant color of Joe Biden's tie at the debate on June 27 | null | null | null | null | null |
qtiwj5acra | false | 8F51KnOVikcy57eEkJ2QxMEjSqZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6zbv6ev9gmn",
"label": "MugaSofer",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Scott Supak | nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m | public | contract | 1,717,242,126,288 | will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p | ScottSupak | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5DFv99tA_zCypikjGaDt5DPMJL0KdMjFQR3rdlyg=s96-c | Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538) | 6zbv6ev9gmn | 0.952685 | 506.881987 | NO | null |
5veekuxh62 | false | cgV0BlQShnNpWhidEQdsLaB7Kqb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolve pls ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Sengoatku | 7OAsOZv8QahwdewRy0gs | public | contract | 1,717,242,215,362 | will-we-see-any-cp0-member-in-chapt-f833c4cb9781 | SenTheGoat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYy755n4Mf-5ZzpGKNU_E1KUip01comcp14O05N=s96-c | Will we see any cp0 member in chapter 1115? | null | 0.451975 | 563.264101 | YES | null |
j54japg2cpk | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Worth noting that apocalyptic effects are probably much more likely in non-equatorial nations that have much more fragile electrical infrastructure e.g... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe | public | contract | 1,717,242,380,193 | how-many-billions-of-dollars-would | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse? | null | null | null | null | null |
mnso89w6i3p | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What does the blue diamond plus mean?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe | public | contract | 1,717,242,534,826 | how-many-billions-of-dollars-would | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse? | null | null | 425.623904 | YES | drtq06274y |
ymd1mf18cd | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "For a moment I was going to say how smelling would be required for AGI but then realised you were using the Turing test definition lol",
"typ... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,242,749,450 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | null | null | null | null | null |
lw3e5x5290s | false | saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Related market:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"con... | MayMeta | 6g9QVGcRcnaHuGhvZ7t9 | public | contract | 1,717,244,145,352 | how-soon-will-rob-miles-post-his-ne | MayMeta | How soon will Rob Miles post his next video after "AI Ruined My Year"? | null | null | 861.247992 | YES | uj6szepup4 | |
t4v75yks4yg | false | saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Related market:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"con... | MayMeta | 3QecR6HCPtVnBERI9pLg | public | contract | 1,717,244,169,423 | will-rob-miless-youtube-channel-hav | MayMeta | Will Rob Miles's YouTube channel have at least 50 videos by the end of 2024? | null | 0.707069 | 101.953762 | YES | null | |
vdaxd0j8upn | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ymd1mf18cd",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},... | Soli ꩜ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,244,307,608 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | Soli | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null | |
uq0potjgmx | false | LP7cXaQwISM2JgopIQ6gCTSJgku2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ednpw5y51wi",
"label": "PatrickDelaney",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Logan Zoellner | hKf5VjSjqjjcRxUtO7Lx | public | contract | 1,717,244,522,958 | will-a-noncrappy-3d-objects-version | LoganZoellner | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2EjHgiN3-4CwC17J8a4nbk1MzVXiwg0o_GxnHnKg=s96-c | Will a Non-Crappy 3D Objects Version of Dall-e be Published Before June 2024? | ednpw5y51wi | null | null | null | null |
araldtrkwf | false | b5a3UuCvBgMsA875HdcgdnVljdq1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's officially cancelled altogether. Resolves NO. :( ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": n... | Muga Sofer | GfoxYNoIcEbgyrgPKEHV | public | contract | 1,717,245,202,604 | will-dearmoon-complete-its-mission | MugaSofer | Will dearMoon complete its mission and return to Earth before Artemis 2 does? | null | 0.025948 | 1,847.521796 | NO | null | |
bog9qcatsnt | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Soli ꩜ | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,245,254,922 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | Soli | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | null | null | 1,571.592985 | NO | 8218539508ce | |
3w07amux4et | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "cc ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2",
"label": "Joshua... | Soli ꩜ | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,245,392,596 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | Soli | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 1,571.592985 | NO | 8218539508ce | |
7hx6v4wg84i | false | cHMvageES2V05q8Eiq493BNJePZ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bog9qcatsnt",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Tamás Szelei | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,245,458,901 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | TamasSzelei | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 65.701823 | YES | a465a02f0e3d | |
tq6hh5wppam | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bog9qcatsnt",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Erik Bjäreholt | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,245,803,756 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 621.84981 | NO | 63c4fdc7616e |
be4a24a6jb5 | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It's at least midway through development by now, so probably not. Possibly in some minor ways that we won't hear about (textures, upscaling). ",
... | Erik Bjäreholt | 2VGqclNXZ9MKTXhz53AB | public | contract | 1,717,245,953,077 | will-the-elder-scrolls-6-use-genera | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | Will The Elder Scrolls 6 use generative AI? | null | 0.350715 | 136.819876 | NO | null |
rfrte8g0q | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tq6hh5wppam",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Soli ꩜ | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,246,069,128 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | Soli | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 1,571.592985 | NO | 8218539508ce | |
5suryjti4sq | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rfrte8g0q",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Erik Bjäreholt | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,246,122,679 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 621.84981 | NO | 63c4fdc7616e |
rr5n4ms3w7 | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5suryjti4sq",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Soli ꩜ | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,246,447,740 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | Soli | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 1,571.592985 | NO | 8218539508ce | |
7n8n7sppf9r | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vdaxd0j8upn",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,246,453,374 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null |
08ncq2joqjog | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4oibigtmo5l",
"label": "dominic",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Christopher Randles | 5xxeSOVmWVacydE8zoLC | public | contract | 1,717,246,505,638 | will-mrbeasts-main-channel-be-the-m | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | Will Mrbeast’s main channel be the most subscribed YouTube channel on June 1st 2024? | 4oibigtmo5l | 0.017827 | 16,906.443366 | NO | null |
6t25nwylv18 | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rr5n4ms3w7",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Erik Bjäreholt | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,246,564,921 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 621.84981 | NO | 63c4fdc7616e |
eoda74q9m | false | 7vUxHjoYCcVI3BYn9mrFFDIEP9v1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I also needed to exchange it... hmm, is it too late to do that now? I urgently needed money in dollar bills. Fortunately, I learned about the $10 depos... | Maryy | eSPoiHc1N7aEwnskXvcw | public | contract | 1,717,246,649,351 | will-there-be-a-way-to-exchange-man | e945 | Will there be a way to exchange manifold dollars for US dollars by the end of 2022? | null | null | null | null | null | |
5kk8ncd6zvt | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6t25nwylv18",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Soli ꩜ | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,246,783,141 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | Soli | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 1,571.592985 | NO | 8218539508ce | |
tge5oc7vbfg | false | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fl20jqjcgkl",
"label": "vVv",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Chris Billington | ZlDNd204Hlc7GkXcztNI | public | contract | 1,717,246,863,019 | will-cnns-online-news-abandon-its-l | chrisjbillington | Will CNN's online news abandon its left-leaning bias by 2025 according to AllSides Media Bias ratings? | 69rcrho8uht | null | null | null | null | |
61eb3nbgvu3 | false | Am7JUzFB69TXCS3Bee3mCpDFBll1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ldeg6rah7cf",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Daniel Sateler | qnXwtV8sSfg4rVTkv7WQ | public | contract | 1,717,246,929,036 | will-openai-release-the-gpt4o-audio | DanielSateler | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIoMq0FZcAC513dpirPRupiZJbtboRA5ejzrcoN5TK5u0ab=s96-c | Will OpenAI release the gpt-4o audio/calling feature on ChatGPT to paying users before July? | ldeg6rah7cf | null | null | null | null |
xuw0lodokzr | false | sLDSFm43iuaHRYE0YpTx9B3QBvJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tge5oc7vbfg",
"label": "chrisjbillington",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | vVv | ZlDNd204Hlc7GkXcztNI | public | contract | 1,717,246,959,302 | will-cnns-online-news-abandon-its-l | vVv | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc217hRvo5DrxSz_u1Qgbbkv-2nqvvCWdszujgbw4A_=s96-c | Will CNN's online news abandon its left-leaning bias by 2025 according to AllSides Media Bias ratings? | 69rcrho8uht | 0.284916 | -0 | NO | null |
rr4l8m5j5i | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5kk8ncd6zvt",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Erik Bjäreholt | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,247,145,382 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 621.84981 | NO | 63c4fdc7616e |
6zkwewjvf5c | false | k6QOwrFxtEMaRXHTxa3mKN0zL5E2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "5kk8ncd6zvt",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Erik Bjäreholt | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,247,299,750 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | ErikBjareholt | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3WjiQmTSiQyyl-djO6hzn41gfI9v4LR4-JZvrwo0=s96-c | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 621.84981 | NO | 63c4fdc7616e |
8io5hzg88cu | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "6zkwewjvf5c",
"label": "ErikBjareholt",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Soli ꩜ | 7cwVkzqjgJ88QxT7mj4B | public | contract | 1,717,247,435,838 | what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m | Soli | What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)? | bog9qcatsnt | null | 1,571.592985 | NO | 8218539508ce | |
wy6bnffyejn | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7n8n7sppf9r",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | Soli ꩜ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,247,501,217 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | Soli | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null | |
xjxtlv0r2g | false | rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "If AGI makes all human workers obsolete, then it doesn't need to care what the puny Brazilian government thinks. ",
"type": "text"
}
... | Bruno | Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827 | public | contract | 1,717,247,513,522 | will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f | BrunoParga | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c | Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement? | null | null | null | null | null |
0y0dpm0fr77f | false | mdlhRvhss6dlc4KwOw34FNx3CS63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Resolved no: as of 03:00 the 1st of June, the last HVO update was not erupting, there's no evidence of an eruption in the main caldera on the webcams, ... | David Harding | jV9y3yuh9Y302BAtkr0o | public | contract | 1,717,247,778,489 | will-kilauea-erupt-by-the-end-of-ma | harding | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKssnVzgVM4Nc-lKegIICp_e8cXN9ree58qVsap8J0rOA=s96-c | Will Kilauea erupt by the end of May 2024? | null | 0.011164 | 7,136.994129 | NO | null |
pr78shyx6u | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "7wsfec8ynrs",
"label": "Goodgulf",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | EZvXSqTW12VYZkJ0TW1p | public | contract | 1,717,247,805,380 | if-you-had-to-vote-in-an-election-w-652d3b2f163f | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If you had to vote in an election, would you rather vote for Donald Trump or Yann Lecunn | 7wsfec8ynrs | null | null | null | null |
f1fy395vygu | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wy6bnffyejn",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,248,002,061 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null |
lr4f49vj25c | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "wy6bnffyejn",
"label": "Soli",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,248,086,726 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null |
kp0kmnthi3a | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Where do attacks on /seizures of ships and enforcement of sanctions sit?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
... | MercurialGuesser | nCNQbc7lYhCUaHjbA4vF | public | contract | 1,717,248,388,697 | will-there-be-a-military-operation | OP | Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035? | null | null | null | null | null | |
57j4i2qlhou | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Guys all the powers that fought in WW1 were extremely right wing by modern standards, the Russian revolution was after the bulk of the war",
... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,717,248,441,602 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 51.960245 | YES | d65c76f11dd5 |
h4v69o34ucv | false | BNRxiD3n0vMOV8yXyV5iKAkeTB82 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'm confused: What spending does this include, exactly?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"att... | For Truth | tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe | public | contract | 1,717,248,539,187 | how-many-billions-of-dollars-would | ForTruth | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK20H7igUt1-gPcrW65-fV97qkL3DKImwHJGpNxlOzz2-SJksA=s96-c | How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse? | null | null | null | null | null |
yf8t3o9zv8 | false | vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lr4f49vj25c",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | ii | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,248,608,534 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | i_i | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null | |
fj78fput2ag | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Guys leftists are infamously socially introverted reclusive nerds while the rightists are stereotypically partying jocks and church-goers",
"... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew | public | contract | 1,717,248,623,210 | leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week? | null | null | 51.960245 | YES | d65c76f11dd5 |
zoh1yfx78v | false | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "vMsWLvZrq4eLI1g13dD53Evifg93",
"label": "i_i",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Soli ꩜ | 30B1VGn7QXnDSRKme3MR | public | contract | 1,717,248,873,639 | will-agi-be-achieved-before-ais-are | Soli | Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? | ymd1mf18cd | null | null | null | null | |
y3x5ukn9bu | false | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xjxtlv0r2g",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Franklin Baldo | Q68NZDgtpRZbaagVJ827 | public | contract | 1,717,248,955,432 | will-brazil-lower-the-minimum-age-f | FranklinBaldo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | Will Brazil lower the minimum age for retirement? | xjxtlv0r2g | null | null | null | null |
noddoyvfdie | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | ujEXtuJc8eg5U5B3y4nR | public | contract | 1,717,249,076,261 | will-tyler-cowen-use-the-word-strau | Ziddletwix | Will Tyler Cowen use the word "Straussian" on any new episode of "Conversations with Tyler" before June 1st? | null | 0.037633 | 3,738.673716 | NO | null | |
t3rc37g0odp | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does it count if western countries give west-controlled Russian reserves to Ukraine?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "parag... | MercurialGuesser | PoKr6DRhPR90UW889T9o | public | contract | 1,717,249,129,857 | will-russia-pay-any-reparations-to | OP | Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
ggrcll2ykc | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "61eb3nbgvu3",
"label": "DanielSateler",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Nat | qnXwtV8sSfg4rVTkv7WQ | public | contract | 1,717,249,143,321 | will-openai-release-the-gpt4o-audio | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Will OpenAI release the gpt-4o audio/calling feature on ChatGPT to paying users before July? | ldeg6rah7cf | null | null | null | null |
itxdnte3qyp | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Does reunification following a blockade/military action short of invasion count?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph... | MercurialGuesser | 0vYAkKrceyAHaSvNpRQq | public | contract | 1,717,249,308,971 | will-china-invade-taiwan-before-203 | OP | Will China invade Taiwan before 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
sglmdv76f5 | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Despite this running at almost 90% for most of the duration of the market, this somehow resolves to NO!",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Simon Grayson | lMeQUruYzOka128MIWK7 | public | contract | 1,717,249,320,813 | will-trump-be-fined-or-punished-yet | SimonGrayson | Will Trump be fined or punished yet again for violating the gag order in his hush money trial by the end of May? | null | null | null | null | null | |
u4hiib8b2ff | false | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "KihBLGkYz1VWQHxpaNaN",
"label": "IsaacKing",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Franklin Baldo | i9ebduHp75EbTYHFtVxv | public | contract | 1,717,249,631,474 | will-ai-solve-100-of-solvable-mturk | FranklinBaldo | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028? | KihBLGkYz1VWQHxpaNaN | null | null | null | null |
xcofeg60k4e | false | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2",
"label": "traders",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Simon Grayson | mQnfyRLgaqbv3invrnwy | public | contract | 1,717,249,675,388 | will-the-mike-tyson-vs-jake-paul-bo | SimonGrayson | Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match go ahead on 20th July? | null | 0.019969 | 148.267126 | NO | null | |
4nx3f61udd | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The next election is in 2028, at which time Xi will be 74 years old.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
... | MercurialGuesser | 3pPEwAVdssQzlRI7bqSf | public | contract | 1,717,249,710,210 | chinese-id-cards-contain-info-about-9919d86252b8 | OP | Xi refers to people including their family size in his speeches, generally | null | 0.471438 | 77.329702 | NO | null | |
g4bfmh403ms | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "As independent, or as part of Russia?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | MercurialGuesser | 2PYr9E4ScrnFPdwJSrp9 | public | contract | 1,717,249,770,656 | will-ukraine-officially-recognize-a-dfa487cade92 | OP | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2030? | null | null | null | null | null | |
8d8fzj7roqo | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3",
"label": "Tetraspace",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Ziddletwix | vulhuo33DGFKpFFfliY6 | public | contract | 1,717,249,861,801 | will-paul-christiano-work-at-the-us | Ziddletwix | Will Paul Christiano work at the US AI Safety Institute at the end of May 2024? | null | 0.955539 | 1,407.903619 | YES | null | |
gmxd8b2sb5 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33",
"label": "NathanpmYoung",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "ment... | Ziddletwix | EC49PTuJ6uyyHNmBnmZI | public | contract | 1,717,249,894,344 | community-notes-will-handle-predict | Ziddletwix | Community Notes will handle prediction markets well or show the manifold/polymarket market graphs before 2024 June | null | 0.038112 | 1,439.834196 | NO | null | |
fr9v43n7ibb | false | qNyAyreBy9QUeN5RwQSTSFIrLU12 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mnso89w6i3p",
"label": "TheAllMemeingEye",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
}... | robm | tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe | public | contract | 1,717,249,946,239 | how-many-billions-of-dollars-would | robm | How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse? | mnso89w6i3p | null | null | null | null | |
kp58riuxp5s | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "R2tUhXluWVbC70S3fxg88KfRMop1",
"label": "MarketFollower",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "men... | Ziddletwix | LvWv0GXsSnG3RAXZhTSc | public | contract | 1,717,249,947,253 | will-laurie-glimcher-ceo-danafarber | Ziddletwix | Will Laurie Glimcher (CEO, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute) Resign Due to Manipulated Research Data by June 1, 2024? | null | 0.017158 | 488.021576 | NO | null | |
n2lnghmjk0s | false | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This might be a dumb question, but does \"over\" mean it has to be flying? What if it's parked at a Ukraine air base?",
"type": "text"
... | mint | mn8vwsH83cg1dL6evAP4 | public | contract | 1,717,250,042,883 | will-russia-shoot-down-an-f16-over | mint | Will Russia shoot down an F-16 over Ukraine before the end of 2025? | null | null | null | null | null | |
up1cz7yxwh | false | zANxxeUKBvU6GNf8cIRcO7wXXul2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Since the market closed with 8 breakpoints exceeded, I have extended the close time by (7*8 + 8) days.",
"type": "text"
}
],
... | Mira | SCMMPzym8QYJnwY1WsVN | public | contract | 1,717,250,081,728 | what-will-be-the-trading-volume-of | Mira | What will be the trading volume of this market at close? | null | null | 2.275828 | YES | c1eaffbcf47a | |
mzbuf75oxj | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2",
"label": "Ernie",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | A9IW5Ms3xClZOTngsfcM | public | contract | 1,717,250,104,681 | manifold-api-lets-me-query-for-my-h | Ziddletwix | Manifold API lets me query for my holdings before June 2024 | null | 0.038276 | 104.109419 | NO | null | |
vj31toum9l | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "8lZo8X5lewh4hnCoreI7iSc0GxK2",
"label": "ManifoldAI",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention... | Ziddletwix | fHWFnz72Zr28gYy7GDlQ | public | contract | 1,717,250,128,937 | when-will-ilya-announce-where-he-wi | Ziddletwix | When will Ilya announce where he will work next? | null | null | 553.605747 | NO | 8557aa4282f9 | |
4v4mw9pf0l7 | false | qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mpqa6lz91",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Agh | ubX6ny2ocG8Tbzd14GNj | public | contract | 1,717,250,176,536 | which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-ho | Agh | Which Hogwarts house do you sort Holden Caulfield into? | mpqa6lz91 | null | null | null | null | |
eqzyzu0dor | false | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "The poll about whether the Turing Test was passed has closed, and the consensus was ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs":... | Steve Sokolowski | qMtEGWTyykNo0T2Cc42S | public | contract | 1,717,250,201,185 | what-will-happen-in-may-2024-add-re | SteveSokolowski | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 680.52547 | YES | 5a864dda0daf |
mrl8perebkf | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "75qwyr8PmlbjAsTeRsu0zVfbP8L2",
"label": "Weeeee",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | Ziddletwix | xQRqDibQwrDIZbMpmxRS | public | contract | 1,717,250,219,635 | will-casey-newton-begin-dating-an-a | Ziddletwix | Will Casey Newton begin dating an AI before June of 2024 | null | 0.053343 | 2,922.215858 | NO | null | |
rxyqwftg8a | false | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Apple will likely release a new iPad mini toward the end of the year, l... | Probajoelistic | 6oRZ4DPvLZi7EW3oCT6n | public | contract | 1,717,250,265,555 | what-existing-ipad-products-will-ap | probajoelistic | 📱 What existing iPad products will Apple update in 2024? | null | null | 58.871349 | YES | 256df692f4a1 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.