id stringlengths 8 13 | isApi bool 2
classes | userId stringlengths 28 28 | content dict | userName stringlengths 1 30 | contractId stringlengths 9 20 | visibility stringclasses 2
values | commentType stringclasses 1
value | createdTime int64 1,716B 1,720B | contractSlug stringlengths 5 48 | userUsername stringlengths 1 25 | userAvatarUrl stringlengths 50 1.03k | contractQuestion stringlengths 2 240 | replyToCommentId stringlengths 8 20 ⌀ | commentorPositionProb float64 0 50 ⌀ | commentorPositionShares float64 -0 6.25M ⌀ | commentorPositionOutcome stringclasses 2
values | commentorPositionAnswerId stringlengths 9 12 ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26p9g02kr43 | false | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tqiwasl6zoh",
"label": "Ansel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Martin Randall | ogCmoCcIVjvrbG9OWd0D | public | contract | 1,717,462,975,496 | will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal | MartinRandall | Will Biden issue a pardon for Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election | cerxscyzc2 | 0.050522 | 113.142184 | NO | null | |
dllls0b7l2c | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rszg1kaz1gk",
"label": "Predictor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The Official | gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw | public | contract | 1,717,463,254,144 | offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma | 10thOfficial | Offical market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024 | rszg1kaz1gk | null | 2,294.509742 | YES | 4dda3692ea24 | |
96vd1mzhyie | false | mrWm2AuHgjSoVgeYNvyCpUVcvpm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "where there's cope there's a way, i wont ever stop believing in HIM",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Abraham | GJJKNNWUw5lYK59EGDbT | public | contract | 1,717,463,318,204 | kizaru-stock | Abraham2a3c | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c | Kizaru Stock | null | 0.836867 | 487.526315 | YES | null |
rgiwgly58y | false | EwWpNJHfp4VZHZyn5FcZZtrjxJn2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So if oilers win this year, what happens to the 2025-2029 markets?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
... | Michael Bishop | Z2iOVSTL6001YuzwfoQc | public | contract | 1,717,463,394,154 | in-what-year-will-a-canadian-team-h | thatMikeBishop | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhtUN797gg8LZCFAsD8mY5C4WPeHTw-urECYqxnCAM=s96-c | In what year will a Canadian team have won a new Stanley Cup? | null | null | null | null | null |
r7782av2eoj | false | mrWm2AuHgjSoVgeYNvyCpUVcvpm2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "not a surprise stocks are low, i wouldn't expect people to be ready for HIM",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
... | Abraham | kTqFEe6g2tkfyNj5yHsW | public | contract | 1,717,463,530,185 | akainu-stock | Abraham2a3c | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL7_tb_QD4TPXfXyzHc5i54_w1wuVUUR9Y4ONcVNMiZ=s96-c | Akainu Stock | null | 0.629483 | 180.358727 | YES | null |
j8ntyguljur | false | KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | Christopher Randles | 8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo | public | contract | 1,717,463,615,129 | what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r | ChristopherRandles | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c | ☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES] | null | null | 192.008171 | YES | d7161a5e4c14 |
442iktdb9ua | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "pokemon PP struggle ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
... | chris (strutheo) | rAUgi5YYPXELc6c6Nsxa | public | contract | 1,717,463,916,791 | which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-bqmuxd42c5 | strutheo | Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in June 2024 according to Manifold? | null | null | null | null | null | |
tm1fs4cjkkb | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Oreos for life 😎 ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | tguwIRCncwqRCF5Y6NvM | public | contract | 1,717,464,006,199 | whats-the-best-candy | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | What’s the best candy | null | null | null | null | null |
t9ma8dzkqlq | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573",
"label": "mods",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | The Official | NGvr47J6cdXsrELqtCcg | public | contract | 1,717,464,025,763 | will-france-officially-send-their-t | 10thOfficial | Will France officially send their troops to Ukraine by June 2024? | yzsj4r809oo | 0.01 | 9,195.806535 | NO | null | |
i1kgvpj9mgb | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dllls0b7l2c",
"label": "10thOfficial",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Predictor 🔥 | gKy8PAj9g8xG2ofY3MYw | public | contract | 1,717,464,491,157 | offical-market-for-t20-world-cup-ma | Predictor | Offical market for T20 Cricket World cup matches 2024 | rszg1kaz1gk | null | 700.890226 | NO | 5cd860ccd606 | |
2ajps7nc2ag | false | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0qbycmelgmaj",
"label": "sama",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Predictor 🔥 | IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz | public | contract | 1,717,464,542,745 | will-udeepfuckingvalue-roaring-kitt | Predictor | Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024? | 0qbycmelgmaj | 0.1 | 22.431101 | NO | null | |
vk9t1hlsr3 | false | a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I'll admit I can't add much of predictive value at the moment, but I hugely appreciate you making so many useful markets about this super important iss... | The All Memeing Eye ♠️ | cYdnL6r7VixfXaxweu58 | public | contract | 1,717,465,213,390 | if-another-carrington-event-occurre-rcv868itnl | TheAllMemeingEye | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c | If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year? | null | null | null | null | null |
8457c27386x | false | bLt6k1O80HbqWMzqrsWtsktGLGx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "v3x3ig3v4pj",
"label": "SaviorofPlant",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Susanne inFrance | kBS7PSzOTv9nIJSgmGSK | public | contract | 1,717,465,354,744 | will-any-ai-regulation-be-passed-be | SusanneinFrance | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIDOs86WcHU8dwcDIj414T7jk_b0RgedXuz4g-gxhsW=s96-c | Will any AI regulation be passed between now and the start of the 119th Congress? | 25yj6rvjgi2 | 0.617255 | 15.252056 | YES | null |
qbmgyvt3nud | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Good news, everyone! This market can now fit 100 more answers!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | Joshua | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,717,465,602,583 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Joshua | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | null | null | 147.121674 | YES | 0v2h7upen3 | |
899rz6dce4u | false | M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What kind of pants are you going to wear?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | NivlacM | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,466,054,580 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | NivlacM | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | null | null | null | null | null |
s7hwnu88nef | false | JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "On to the next Grand Slam event -",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"cont... | Stuart Slagle | ZAp0KVR34vvLHyYZXnzM | public | contract | 1,717,466,159,626 | to-which-is-the-last-round-that-tay | ovals | To which is the last round that Taylor Fritz will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾 | null | null | 5,900.13796 | YES | eeeb08453ea1 | |
aa1s4n95sqe | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "omg",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,717,466,602,408 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | strutheo | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | null | null | 1,788.480505 | NO | dccbbaa3142f | |
x4gvvcniqg | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aa1s4n95sqe",
"label": "strutheo",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | chris (strutheo) | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,717,466,617,392 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | strutheo | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | aa1s4n95sqe | null | 1,788.480505 | NO | dccbbaa3142f | |
rsfsr4lhe8 | false | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qbmgyvt3nud",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | The Official | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,717,466,824,979 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | 10thOfficial | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | qbmgyvt3nud | null | null | null | null | |
9v0syi9zhc5 | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i think the “chess engine” part is difficult here. a fine tuned llm should be okay here. since, i think the main issue is you need a power model (e.g. ... | Campbell Hutcheson | LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj | public | contract | 1,717,467,099,208 | will-a-large-language-models-beat-a | CampbellHutcheson | Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028? | null | 0.364713 | 75.288762 | YES | null | |
2us1j5vmgxh | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pxd9p9n3ual",
"label": "dominic",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Campbell Hutcheson | LPxYV8cUXZOwTUe5ufrj | public | contract | 1,717,467,189,120 | will-a-large-language-models-beat-a | CampbellHutcheson | Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028? | 8v8t3cosmkt | 0.364713 | 75.288762 | YES | null | |
bq8jwktqk84 | false | 8K7OokTvKUWJ8OjAucDKG90Yi4H2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "rkwzdde3lro",
"label": "GooGhoul",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | GooGhoul | Gtv5mhjKaiLD6Bkvfhcv | public | contract | 1,717,467,380,653 | agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708 | GooGhoul | AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test] | ndd044r2bdr | null | 618.043146 | YES | ed73a628dbcc | |
yavm37b5qtk | false | nGar3wy95KSg5LUVTHNaihXEPhu1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "26p9g02kr43",
"label": "MartinRandall",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Eduardo Filippi | ogCmoCcIVjvrbG9OWd0D | public | contract | 1,717,467,383,457 | will-biden-issue-a-pardon-for-donal | EduardoFilippi | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7Xj_4vSCo13-W6-97YCyBVHzdKxVAT0aaiVzrX=s96-c | Will Biden issue a pardon for Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election | cerxscyzc2 | 0.053678 | 1,093.135536 | YES | null |
iiyfmfxpb7 | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I have done a similar question for the end of 2029:",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
"attrs":... | Ponti Min | bqqjVUOIJXaxXyXPMckf | public | contract | 1,717,467,388,360 | will-keir-starmer-be-prime-minister | PontiMin | Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
7sj1ly5l92 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "MC answers are M100 through Manifest (June 9th) 🚀",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | eVsjvwi4WoP0VUyY0owL | public | contract | 1,717,467,521,255 | let-me-know-when-theres-been-a-chan | shankypanky | Alert us when Manifold has changed | null | null | null | null | null | |
x2y3t5i71o | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "MC answers are M100 for now! 🚀",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | stefanie | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,467,548,019 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | shankypanky | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | null | null | 1,025.222535 | YES | 8bca377e66b7 | |
6819d09tjz8 | false | gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | KldTouchr87 | JSSf0Mglt4sQpUEG6piO | public | contract | 1,717,467,641,404 | will-the-open-water-swimming-events | Kldtouchr87 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c | Will the open water swimming events be able to take place in the Seine river for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games? | null | 0.67 | 781.492179 | NO | null |
3b1wfyra7h2 | false | gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": [
{
"attrs": {
"class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora... | KldTouchr87 | KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh | public | contract | 1,717,467,693,439 | will-any-event-of-the-paris-2024-ol | Kldtouchr87 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c | Will any event of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games be postponed or cancelled due to the water quality of the Seine? | null | 0.440683 | 364.445644 | YES | null |
qt4kmvi9c | false | 3fZ60DMrJveoJj9AKoKcODTTTpc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Do you want to distinguish between the claims it came from the Wuhan lab vs the Fort Detrick lab?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"... | MercurialGuesser | dnFUo0XbR8xhNlEphnMw | public | contract | 1,717,467,784,377 | will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov | OP | Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vq3pz9b2yla | false | gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | KldTouchr87 | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,468,013,153 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Kldtouchr87 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | null | null | null | null | null |
9ajn3bh925m | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "qbmgyvt3nud",
"label": "Joshua",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Pat Scott🩴 | kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx | public | contract | 1,717,468,491,215 | what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene | Stralor | Manifest 2024 Prop Bets | qbmgyvt3nud | null | 2,162.761365 | YES | 68bd808c2fa2 | |
mgcfz49zk9 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Update: the sublet of my appartment from jan to apr stopped and i don’t got a balance for weighing my weight. But i am back at my parents’ and starve s... | Bayesian | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,468,724,199 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Bayesian | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | null | null | null | null | null | |
tcnz1f4kx3c | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I basically do this, except with water instead of olive oil",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type"... | Bayesian | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,468,766,346 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Bayesian | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | vq3pz9b2yla | null | null | null | null | |
v8b1carx5ec | false | dYLpkCCilcRnDhTXK5eSX0oHK3x1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Jason Robertson scored a hat trick in Game 3 of the Edmonton Series. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
... | ReeMARKable | EqFyf6nm18fuW527CAmb | public | contract | 1,717,468,944,790 | -nhl-20232024-prop-bets | ReeMARKable | 🏒 NHL Prop Bets 🎲 | null | null | 447.133043 | YES | b4a785937821 | |
lxqmz3inkpk | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "899rz6dce4u",
"label": "NivlacM",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Shelvacu | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,469,058,578 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | Shelvacu | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | 899rz6dce4u | null | null | null | null | |
x157ffbebpd | false | wR6BFZBUO7Zvt2tvMt2zdsjlg8k1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p537c53jyl",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Charlie Bauer | DsMXehh7Ii5iIiJ7SgjW | public | contract | 1,717,469,279,532 | will-nj-senator-bob-menendez-run-fo | CharlieBauer | Will NJ Senator Bob Menendez run for re-election an independent? | p537c53jyl | 0.737394 | 302.748081 | YES | null | |
4cva9byinyc | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bts3fnvulx7",
"label": "nikki",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Pat Scott🩴 | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,469,284,130 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | Stralor | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | cvul0py5fxm | null | 1,191.176005 | YES | 5okh99oqza | |
4w8xyp64n56 | false | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "4cva9byinyc",
"label": "Stralor",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Pat Scott🩴 | gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74 | public | contract | 1,717,469,418,967 | manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam | Stralor | Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7] | cvul0py5fxm | null | 1,191.176005 | YES | 5okh99oqza | |
4dhq7ocecsi | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "tcnz1f4kx3c",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,469,744,074 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | shankypanky | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | vq3pz9b2yla | 0.640781 | 46.096781 | YES | null | |
cbulssvha57 | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "mgcfz49zk9",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,469,792,029 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | shankypanky | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | mgcfz49zk9 | 0.640781 | 46.096781 | YES | null | |
aurybmjnzv5 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "cbulssvha57",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,470,011,809 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Bayesian | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | mgcfz49zk9 | null | null | null | null | |
h8cdc27ktj | false | P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "dpqlvoz6bsb",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | houstonEuler | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,470,180,208 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | houstonEuler | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | 92j4x0ka2mh | null | null | null | null | |
0695442cdadi | false | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This should resolve already as day 1 was today. ",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": {
"id": "hRbPwezgxnat6G... | JRP | AXzDAe1HXPORmaiV11qY | public | contract | 1,717,470,260,536 | when-will-hunter-bidens-trial-happe | parhizj | When will Hunter Biden's trial happen? | null | null | 1,109.796596 | YES | ef1705e8c6d5 | |
pfskgkxx6i | false | gml98vCzznd8lqcY9SONnHfVI5k2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "aurybmjnzv5",
"label": "Bayesian",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | KldTouchr87 | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,470,590,959 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Kldtouchr87 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLCTfkLHw0WFomqqwcUrjn6dF4vcpyd4aY3UVudrsOW6k-_H3E=s96-c | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | mgcfz49zk9 | 0.640781 | 72.916382 | YES | null |
jet90n0aajf | false | yJ6T8tKbutgPZgJ4SFgxAbP1tTb2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Please resolve",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jonah Kim | fmwXXtYZKquiiAggKoAy | public | contract | 1,717,470,824,197 | metaculus-will-openai-be-a-public-c | JonahKim | [Metaculus] Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | null | 0.010592 | 1,044.906748 | NO | null | |
wvvep58afub | false | 7L0vEaY5mghx33qU9XQBwXg25x73 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Maybe i should learn to spell his first name correctly. Is there any way to edit a question?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type"... | Ponti Min | VQyvWUhZv8C7J6iedVsU | public | contract | 1,717,471,026,336 | will-kier-starmer-be-uk-prime-minis | PontiMin | Will Kier Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029? | null | 0.546054 | 94.465832 | YES | null | |
kiazegy5ux | false | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p537c53jyl",
"label": "mint",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | themightysalmon | DsMXehh7Ii5iIiJ7SgjW | public | contract | 1,717,471,078,291 | will-nj-senator-bob-menendez-run-fo | themightysalmon | Will NJ Senator Bob Menendez run for re-election an independent? | p537c53jyl | null | null | null | null | |
dzut1a7j767 | false | 9kHjWO5Zz5QTbCMGaXsy1L1J8W33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0cogze4v9g8d",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Method Tarantula | gLKepA3Jdl3lmiRXc32K | public | contract | 1,717,471,326,745 | will-sodiumion-batteries-be-commerc | MethodTarantula | Will sodium-ion batteries be commercially available before the end of 2024? | WrTztDi9EtYqmWgdqPyT | 1 | 858.324402 | YES | null | |
xdo3iwzn06 | false | 9kHjWO5Zz5QTbCMGaXsy1L1J8W33 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0cogze4v9g8d",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Method Tarantula | gLKepA3Jdl3lmiRXc32K | public | contract | 1,717,471,350,717 | will-sodiumion-batteries-be-commerc | MethodTarantula | Will sodium-ion batteries be commercially available before the end of 2024? | WrTztDi9EtYqmWgdqPyT | 1 | 858.324402 | YES | null | |
q7sbsfxqol | false | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pfskgkxx6i",
"label": "DerekYao",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | stefanie | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,471,605,497 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | shankypanky | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | mgcfz49zk9 | 0.69829 | 46.096781 | YES | null | |
ex2ih8ukclu | false | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | celery | WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT | public | contract | 1,717,471,703,050 | will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915 | WhoamI748e | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c | Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner) | null | 0.233623 | 4.052661 | YES | null |
au81rvg44of | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT | public | contract | 1,717,471,704,949 | will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915 | FairlyRandom | Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner) | null | null | null | null | null | |
9zmisayvfk | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | WB2nYuRUqowtzXUwN2vT | public | contract | 1,717,471,744,379 | will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-7e20e779f915 | FairlyRandom | Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (6969Mana prize for the lottery winner) | null | null | null | null | null | |
bysy86915a4 | false | M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "lxqmz3inkpk",
"label": "Shelvacu",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | NivlacM | PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj | public | contract | 1,717,471,749,745 | how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3 | NivlacM | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c | How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline? | 899rz6dce4u | null | 16.972807 | YES | ec0f22ccc70a |
9yvupk5vc58 | false | seF80w4NuDXRDFINDuLgJPZb4A83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | celery | XaPaE9UwEHo4mEx592af | public | contract | 1,717,471,791,109 | will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-967a7b5448c5 | WhoamI748e | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKUqqQCy_0aaMYaUr-4Yqx9_5mI-AGwfE8G2mx2p1iLgVY=s96-c | Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner) | null | null | null | null | null |
hjf746ju2s5 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | XaPaE9UwEHo4mEx592af | public | contract | 1,717,471,795,476 | will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-967a7b5448c5 | FairlyRandom | Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner) | null | null | null | null | null | |
b7h90aovhcl | false | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1",
"label": "FairlyRandom",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "menti... | themightysalmon | kQRh5AYFCCEBVFJqRdAQ | public | contract | 1,717,471,809,604 | will-a-random-number-between-1-and-3d1974acc7b7 | themightysalmon | Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1? | null | null | null | null | null | |
9cghj59u6ht | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | kQRh5AYFCCEBVFJqRdAQ | public | contract | 1,717,471,813,391 | will-a-random-number-between-1-and-3d1974acc7b7 | FairlyRandom | Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1? | null | null | null | null | null | |
uoail90s92 | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | XaPaE9UwEHo4mEx592af | public | contract | 1,717,471,834,837 | will-someone-rolled-69-before-marke-967a7b5448c5 | FairlyRandom | Will someone rolled 69 before market close? (42069 Mana prize for the lottery winner) | null | null | null | null | null | |
8phn877ruej | true | xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": null,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"l... | FairlyRandom | kQRh5AYFCCEBVFJqRdAQ | public | contract | 1,717,471,864,346 | will-a-random-number-between-1-and-3d1974acc7b7 | FairlyRandom | Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1? | null | null | null | null | null | |
vo5l31zpmnj | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "fIldPqVOGBVA3kl2fk8ci9Yiju52",
"label": "ZacParker",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"... | chris (strutheo) | 7YjdC8kze53UUk38tUS8 | public | contract | 1,717,471,920,317 | will-i-regret-buying-100-cartermond | strutheo | Will I regret buying 100 Carter-Mondale pins for $100 a year from now? | null | 0.178489 | 703.452556 | NO | null | |
ikttxi7oo38 | false | 0K7k2uX11xXkzm71SAE30ri2lhf1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "kzq5d8s2gtk",
"label": "ChristopherRandles",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
... | m | YjxGSpTMl7VzafTG74Lf | public | contract | 1,717,472,196,420 | who-will-the-anc-form-a-minority-go | m2 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fm2%2F2WJ7YfVg34.26?alt=media&token=f08bb2f8-f32a-4eba-a17c-877a2f4dac7e | Who will the ANC form a minority government with? | kzq5d8s2gtk | null | 172.192012 | NO | o4laqic3gy |
tmb9uonz9do | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "pfskgkxx6i",
"label": "DerekYao",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Bayesian | RNp6CRiR3f79Mm5PTD9X | public | contract | 1,717,472,714,263 | will-i-weigh-over-150lb-at-the-end | Bayesian | Will I weigh over 150lb at the end of 2024?` | mgcfz49zk9 | null | null | null | null | |
4lsxz5r7en5 | false | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Apparently it’s a myth that jesus is the son of god. Do u wanna support a fraud? Yeah I don’t either. Also this is a hard pill to swallow but this may ... | Bayesian | nKZKsekXFSTkiIvmuSNh | public | contract | 1,717,472,999,481 | -who-is-manifolds-goat-final-four-p | Bayesian | 🐐 Who is Manifold's G.O.A.T.? 🐐 (Final Four) | null | null | 266.344941 | YES | 0b8ca19072a2 | |
rqgzibz8xd | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Related market:",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
... | Eliza | GE7ZORoLR9uBtzM4RV2s | public | contract | 1,717,473,457,238 | who-will-placed-highest-on-gc-from-77oaafwbd7 | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Who will placed highest on GC from Visma | Lease a Bike at the 2024 Tour de France? | null | null | 18.668767 | NO | cwf03twdhh |
c4qxdmfph0i | false | XdHklSCeYePBNug3H4Y71FD9yK52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "avan3w63sks",
"label": "DanMan314",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | early | HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg | public | contract | 1,717,473,548,429 | what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f | early | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK0S_k_jqjm8K4EYhTaUYfqKzsS0tPd9tMip5_vZ-z0FgMS_Q=s96-c | What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include? | 9sdhy6vhkhi | null | 1,640.068381 | NO | wyiesupq1i |
jt0i6zymv9r | false | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "At this point I think the management of Visma will be frantic enough that they will strongly encourage him to start even if he isn't in the best form."... | Eliza | AO4RHEAX4N2ldNVa6Tbx | public | contract | 1,717,473,630,851 | will-jonas-vingegaard-start-the-202 | Eliza | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | Will Jonas Vingegaard start the 2024 Tour de France? | null | 0.64 | 312.23326 | YES | null |
7p75z9hdkn3 | false | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0dqr9z65vej",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Joshua | yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP | public | contract | 1,717,474,306,229 | will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati | Joshua | Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts? | xlbgaere8o | null | null | null | null | |
hgex1a4kgfj | false | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "No word yet but the olympics is soon",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | chris (strutheo) | GF9IDoVfsRofCoQanGrF | public | contract | 1,717,474,480,582 | will-herseys-revive-the-hersheys-go | strutheo | Will Hersey's revive the Hershey's Gold candy bar by Jan 1st 2028? | null | null | null | null | null | |
9qob7wxf8wr | false | uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "bd3a6jiyygt",
"label": "shankypanky",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Shelvacu | yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP | public | contract | 1,717,474,529,685 | will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati | Shelvacu | Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts? | bd3a6jiyygt | null | null | null | null | |
fk0a5xo911v | false | XdHklSCeYePBNug3H4Y71FD9yK52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": " DA Bragg went after Trump to damage Trump. Bragg is corrupt. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
},
{
... | early | HSFwQ8o6np4QWbvBWPZg | public | contract | 1,717,474,795,741 | what-will-trumps-sentence-for-his-f | early | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK0S_k_jqjm8K4EYhTaUYfqKzsS0tPd9tMip5_vZ-z0FgMS_Q=s96-c | What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include? | 9sdhy6vhkhi | null | 1,640.068381 | NO | wyiesupq1i |
y48r6vmiri | false | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"alt": null,
"contractIds": null,
"deleteCallback": null,
"deleteNode": null,
"description": null,
"frameBorder": 0,
"hideCloseButton": null,
"id": null,
"image": null,
"inputKey": null,
"lang... | vibhav | oINQhJX0BgLTfbLs0giM | public | contract | 1,717,474,913,665 | nhl-stanley-cup-florida-panthers-vs | vibhav | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c | NHL Stanley Cup: Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers (Exact Series Outcome) | null | null | null | null | null |
eh2btzfctj4 | false | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I found it in the main feed on May 24. Was the market stifled after that date, per chance? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | Quroe | yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP | public | contract | 1,717,474,933,018 | will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati | Quroe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c | Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts? | null | null | null | null | null |
ks2q1u7qiv | false | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "p3cqwjopm",
"label": "vibhav",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | vibhav | ve2DjbUNGEB5h3IzK1zB | public | contract | 1,717,474,944,336 | nba-finals-dallas-mavericks-vs-bost | vibhav | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c | NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME) | p3cqwjopm | null | null | null | null |
io1rd01xr4k | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "i33gtGvfnFZwli6Q4Adpjthz4Lw1",
"label": "CelebratedWhale",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "me... | Timothy Johnson | p4dgt9lixmUt2bFbgE0V | public | contract | 1,717,475,163,558 | which-of-the-following-companies-wi-d2a1f2490d8e | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Which of the following companies will have highest market cap. on June 1st? | null | null | 318.328778 | YES | 015b316b1419 |
nt2e6dhe11 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "eh2btzfctj4",
"label": "Quroe",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | Ziddletwix | yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP | public | contract | 1,717,475,295,846 | will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati | Ziddletwix | Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts? | eh2btzfctj4 | 0.222317 | 1,056.905827 | NO | null | |
wrvwtaxrklk | false | Lk7U1F6C5DXTTXCKYJhmwTok9Ps1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "ks2q1u7qiv",
"label": "vibhav",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | vibhav | ve2DjbUNGEB5h3IzK1zB | public | contract | 1,717,475,433,394 | nba-finals-dallas-mavericks-vs-bost | vibhav | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKTsn9RXrE0SP1OYtVuqcua0mnCOCxT_DTAAWHeoRGR-RU=s96-c | NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics (EXACT SERIES OUTCOME) | p3cqwjopm | null | null | null | null |
7ymsydaztef | false | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nt2e6dhe11",
"label": "Ziddletwix",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Quroe | yNaODVFlMXRbuUCPn3RP | public | contract | 1,717,475,621,223 | will-manifold-reverse-its-sexnegati | Quroe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c | Will Manifold reverse its sex-negative decision and list my market before Manifest starts? | eh2btzfctj4 | null | null | null | null |
r86qlclszfc | false | XdHklSCeYePBNug3H4Y71FD9yK52 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Delusional Nazis fantasizing about winning, but thank Putin, there is no victory for Nazis!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type":... | early | 1rtkalKlTIvDKRshJWEp | public | contract | 1,717,475,633,902 | workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi | early | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK0S_k_jqjm8K4EYhTaUYfqKzsS0tPd9tMip5_vZ-z0FgMS_Q=s96-c | Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk? | null | null | null | null | null |
kx2eurm07ua | false | Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Free mana",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | nikki | vZxTfEoex4EAgj6fsWRr | public | contract | 1,717,475,791,187 | will-this-market-have-more-than-50 | nikki | Will this market have more than 50 traders by July 1, 2024? | null | 0.950242 | 3,175.035726 | YES | null | |
hrtqs5jwrk4 | false | e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Just one more trader needed!",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Timothy Johnson | vZxTfEoex4EAgj6fsWRr | public | contract | 1,717,476,009,997 | will-this-market-have-more-than-50 | TimothyJohnson5c16 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c | Will this market have more than 50 traders by July 1, 2024? | null | 0.962611 | 272.458125 | YES | null |
mv4qrq9i2s | false | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Is it possible for such an event to hit \"the world\" without it hitting \"the U.S.\"?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "par... | Quroe | iIfLvPHgRrCgSgc72i7i | public | contract | 1,717,476,117,689 | if-another-carrington-event-hit-the | Quroe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c | If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week? | null | 0.407192 | 57.992759 | YES | null |
v89k28nfrv | false | 9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "This is partially me asking out of ignorance of whether or not this is possible, but if it affects another country, but the the U.S. appears like nothi... | Quroe | iIfLvPHgRrCgSgc72i7i | public | contract | 1,717,476,384,723 | if-another-carrington-event-hit-the | Quroe | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c | If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week? | mv4qrq9i2s | 0.407192 | 57.992759 | YES | null |
tf5hqu6zqgo | false | xNZQawSuOdWPwqnVlFwQbIMT2x42 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It’s not 1. Market resolves NO. ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | themightysalmon | kQRh5AYFCCEBVFJqRdAQ | public | contract | 1,717,476,623,828 | will-a-random-number-between-1-and-3d1974acc7b7 | themightysalmon | Will a random number between 1 and 10 (inclusive) be equal to 1? | null | null | null | null | null | |
l7d5flccne | false | AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I think the link on this one has been truncated (or at the very least it seems to redirect to the wrong tweet)",
"type": "text"
}
... | Nat | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,717,477,252,369 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | Nat | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | null | null | 638.743652 | YES | 24df1f7934ca |
tgoxvp9tb1k | false | iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Trump calling on Supreme Court to look at his conviction.",
"type": "text"
},
{
"attrs": null,
"content":... | Niko | po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6 | public | contract | 1,717,477,363,827 | will-trump-be-pardoned-or-have-a-si | Moscow25 | Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election? | null | 0.184938 | 392.28972 | YES | null | |
hs8kkv1ewls | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "l7d5flccne",
"label": "Nat",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Ziddletwix | KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0 | public | contract | 1,717,477,487,928 | good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr | Ziddletwix | Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week? | l7d5flccne | null | 744.727443 | NO | e972eba34d19 | |
0h3zzfw35s5m | false | jZUBm9inM5W8zeSJDPClYNVLAcv2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "It just has to happen sometime in 2024?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Jess Riedel | Y10UeU5l2TlizDIE6XlC | public | contract | 1,717,478,093,656 | vox-prediction-2024-starship-will-c | JessRiedel | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtekvmOko5m7kKrx2fT2UZEzaEFrrwqJqTV6R6kPNhTwUQE=s96-c | Vox Prediction 2024: Starship will complete a launch without either stage exploding | null | 0.76 | 489.743391 | NO | null |
nip0rr4n2n | false | W2xr0kmXVqg4SzEQltvfpWOsAFO2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "What does \"after the claim\" mean?",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Gracious | 8mLQNh5tur4qPwXFl5hB | public | contract | 1,717,478,759,448 | will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx | GG | Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim? | null | null | null | null | null | |
znjo1ymjwc | false | vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "i put this at 10%. but, i put it at 30% before august and 70% before september.",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"... | Campbell Hutcheson | Hkn8Lakzyr73wbMEup4K | public | contract | 1,717,479,169,755 | will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e | CampbellHutcheson | Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2024? | null | null | null | null | null | |
8hzahkn7r4u | false | T31vZBYtJpaNo0qRuAsnUC0PjvH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "Quantum computing will break BTC's ECDSA before it breaks SHA-256. So even if quantum computers cause BTC to lose 90%+ value, this is a losing bet beca... | Shihan | 7QokCIHGl36kJO02mzDc | public | contract | 1,717,479,418,615 | will-bitcoin-lose-90-of-its-value-d | Shihan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8ZfSeIp_wOPEyJo3s5WRmn_BFSZKGYPivVseXj_pbSkznI0e4w=s96-c | Will bitcoin lose >90% of its value due to quantum computers cracking sha256 before 2053? | null | null | null | null | null |
f5xpoasrc0o | false | T31vZBYtJpaNo0qRuAsnUC0PjvH2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "On steam only? ",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | Shihan | uaKxcAGso2V84UmDgwiQ | public | contract | 1,717,479,895,203 | how-many-players-will-helldivers-2 | Shihan | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIs8ZfSeIp_wOPEyJo3s5WRmn_BFSZKGYPivVseXj_pbSkznI0e4w=s96-c | How many players will Helldivers 2 have on September 1st 2024? | null | null | null | null | null |
tlcl2m7q6h | false | 7VyXHLttmabiTEB4oaUAs2tbyzG3 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "r86qlclszfc",
"label": "early",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{... | RatUziCat | 1rtkalKlTIvDKRshJWEp | public | contract | 1,717,479,896,887 | workinprogress-if-either-happens-wi | RatUziCat | Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk? | r86qlclszfc | 0.509927 | 16.170685 | YES | null | |
5zrscshaab5 | false | mZKaAbBA5iNEOKJBU0BrluyX8n83 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "I bet dear moon comes up, given that Tim Dodd (the interviewer) had literally been selected to be on that flight. Would have to be Elon who brings it u... | Simon Westlake | CKuP5LDl4wv70nTg7Yxx | public | contract | 1,717,479,992,558 | what-will-be-true-of-the-everyday-a | SimonWestlake | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI6iDk5AS4j1o_3L_kt2oVHYo_s-gOCd0dsz1kKbmUd-B6rug=s96-c | What will be true of the Everyday Astronaut 's Starbase tour with Elon Musk about IFT 4? | null | null | 297.408616 | YES | o6d8r9t9as |
jqx8z9fyhh8 | false | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "So to clarify, if either (a) he sells them at any point before June 21, or (b) the stock price is below $20 on June 21 and they are worthless, this res... | Ziddletwix | X7AcP3q4aEbyvjuM8uge | public | contract | 1,717,480,104,889 | will-keith-gill-exercise-all-his-ju | Ziddletwix | Will Keith Gill exercise all his June 21st $20 calls? | null | 0.52359 | 98.769883 | NO | null | |
ny7mqgdshob | false | yWKyDbMkNfSHZAIbK26aR58Nxji2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "9de78eio3ii",
"label": "BrunoParga",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Epistemic Hygiene | 6ymdDdrFQ7GGgEE715OR | public | contract | 1,717,480,797,023 | on-the-day-before-the-2029-inaugura | Epistemic_Hygiene | On the day before the 2029 inauguration, who will be the President of the United States? | 9de78eio3ii | null | null | null | null | |
kxzukcs62o | false | WCJvVzWbG1apZxBa83xpTYwEBdh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "khatam tata bye bye gaya",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | KungurRail | cY4k1Yzosa7qxjmc5N7b | public | contract | 1,717,481,029,047 | how-many-seats-in-the-lok-sabha-wil | KungurRail | How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election? | null | null | 706.952645 | NO | 3bbe7a35079a | |
kap29tkyrqe | false | WCJvVzWbG1apZxBa83xpTYwEBdh1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": "khatam tata bye bye gaya",
"type": "text"
}
],
"type": "paragraph"
}
],
"type": "doc"
} | KungurRail | QSajuFqqjsS3ZuECWXdv | public | contract | 1,717,481,040,467 | how-many-seats-will-the-ruling-bjpl | KungurRail | How many seats will the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance win in the 2024 Indian General Election? | null | null | 577.569474 | YES | d0525ad285a0 | |
qt499gun5ok | false | Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "nip0rr4n2n",
"label": "GG",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
{
... | Ihor Kendiukhov | 8mLQNh5tur4qPwXFl5hB | public | contract | 1,717,482,191,273 | will-yudkowsky-claim-that-he-is-mor-f2h2nq5epx | IhorKendiukhov | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY_LCXlnQVZAJ2jXC13YFJNvtOWrpX0gMSDHrcWDg=s96-c | Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim? | nip0rr4n2n | 0.273415 | 19.234326 | NO | null |
djz13855omh | false | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | {
"content": [
{
"attrs": null,
"content": [
{
"attrs": {
"id": "0h3zzfw35s5m",
"label": "JessRiedel",
"start": null
},
"content": null,
"marks": null,
"text": null,
"type": "mention"
},
... | Fedor | Y10UeU5l2TlizDIE6XlC | public | contract | 1,717,482,304,377 | vox-prediction-2024-starship-will-c | Fedor | Vox Prediction 2024: Starship will complete a launch without either stage exploding | 0h3zzfw35s5m | null | null | null | null |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.