Frozen validation error analysis for tbl-xl-20261105-r1-xl-ref-seed42-72k

runs/tbl-xl-20261105-r1-xl-ref-seed42-72k/large-error-analysis/report.md

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+# TBL-XL-001 validation error analysis
+
+Frozen validation sample. All rates use the stated sample count.
+
+```json
+{
+  "run_id": "tbl-xl-20261105-r1-xl-ref-seed42-72k",
+  "git_commit": "51a4c910bb8f4f4a60ae399ceefa0805211c85d0",
+  "config_fingerprint": "49dffb47b2877be3cff57eab149ff5573da4fe88308f03ea1d50e60cb5e6f665",
+  "dataset_fingerprint": "ccb6c5b7f1bddec623cd94a9fc146a4d268f35eaab666459de6b911732d4a32b",
+  "seed": 42,
+  "task_variant": "T2_JOINT"
+}
+```
+
+## Overall
+
+| Metric | Value |
+|---|---:|
+| count | 100000 |
+| multi_reference_exact_match_top1 | 0.527 |
+| candidate_recall_at_3 | 0.64498 |
+| mrr | 0.5808033333333573 |
+| cer | 0.011173571773973517 |
+| wer | 0.04353060474360135 |
+| case_insensitive_exact_match_top1 | 0.6972 |
+
+## Error categories
+
+| Category | Count | Rate of all rows |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| exact | 52700 | 0.527000 |
+| case | 17016 | 0.170160 |
+| tone | 6334 | 0.063340 |
+| form+tone | 3742 | 0.037420 |
+| boundary+case | 3713 | 0.037130 |
+| tone+case | 3635 | 0.036350 |
+| boundary | 3108 | 0.031080 |
+| form+tone+case | 2444 | 0.024440 |
+| form | 1638 | 0.016380 |
+| form+tone+boundary+case | 1505 | 0.015050 |
+| tone+boundary+case | 1283 | 0.012830 |
+| form+case | 854 | 0.008540 |
+| form+tone+boundary | 749 | 0.007490 |
+| tone+boundary | 650 | 0.006500 |
+| form+boundary+case | 318 | 0.003180 |
+| form+boundary | 192 | 0.001920 |
+| unalignable_output | 119 | 0.001190 |
+
+## Top3 and near-exact failures
+
+| Slice | Count | Rate of all rows |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| top3_but_not_top1 | 11798 | 0.117980 |
+| outside_top3 | 35502 | 0.355020 |
+| one_edit_failure | 19644 | 0.196440 |
+| near_exact_failure | 19644 | 0.196440 |
+| spacing_only | 3182 | 0.031820 |
+| diacritic_involved | 23344 | 0.233440 |
+| form_involved | 11442 | 0.114420 |
+| tone_involved | 20342 | 0.203420 |
+| case_involved | 30768 | 0.307680 |
+| boundary_involved | 11518 | 0.115180 |
+| unalignable_output_involved | 119 | 0.001190 |
+
+Near-exact failures have edit distance from 1 to 1 inclusive.
+
+## Length and content slices
+
+| Slice | Count | EM@1 | R@3 | CER | WER |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| overall | 100000 | 0.527000 | 0.644980 | 0.011174 | 0.043531 |
+| length:medium | 71140 | 0.571380 | 0.688684 | 0.010871 | 0.042082 |
+| length:long | 24253 | 0.373026 | 0.494124 | 0.011199 | 0.044207 |
+| content:digits | 36742 | 0.453868 | 0.580834 | 0.012526 | 0.049337 |
+| content:non_ascii | 11804 | 0.389953 | 0.510420 | 0.015498 | 0.062270 |
+| length:short | 4607 | 0.652268 | 0.764272 | 0.026645 | 0.097763 |
+| case:uppercase | 146 | 0.232877 | 0.301370 | 0.031472 | 0.125062 |
+| codec:unsupported | 131 | 0.091603 | 0.129771 | 0.049491 | 0.250097 |
+
+## Worst significant domains
+
+Minimum count for significant domains is 100.
+
+| Domain | Count | EM@1 | R@3 | CER | WER |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| domain:code | 106 | 0.320755 | 0.433962 | 0.019524 | 0.079721 |
+| domain:religion | 1967 | 0.321301 | 0.431113 | 0.022079 | 0.085247 |
+| domain:literature | 3147 | 0.388942 | 0.488719 | 0.021633 | 0.088420 |
+| domain:heritage | 1824 | 0.407346 | 0.519189 | 0.015040 | 0.060462 |
+| domain:education | 4264 | 0.444887 | 0.564493 | 0.019199 | 0.063230 |
+| domain:institutions | 2163 | 0.457235 | 0.598706 | 0.011855 | 0.045557 |
+| domain:academic | 2495 | 0.458918 | 0.570741 | 0.016702 | 0.060869 |
+| domain:geography | 1370 | 0.472263 | 0.594891 | 0.012462 | 0.050633 |
+| domain:history | 8804 | 0.488074 | 0.601090 | 0.013594 | 0.052284 |
+| domain:art | 1279 | 0.495700 | 0.612197 | 0.012789 | 0.047128 |
+
+## Largest domains
+
+Minimum count for significant domains is 100.
+
+| Domain | Count | EM@1 | R@3 | CER | WER |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| domain:news | 12617 | 0.528810 | 0.664738 | 0.008296 | 0.034605 |
+| domain:entertainment | 10040 | 0.571514 | 0.690438 | 0.009020 | 0.035769 |
+| domain:history | 8804 | 0.488074 | 0.601090 | 0.013594 | 0.052284 |
+| domain:general | 7934 | 0.517141 | 0.633350 | 0.011626 | 0.046730 |
+| domain:sports | 6050 | 0.661322 | 0.758678 | 0.007117 | 0.028007 |
+| domain:social | 5253 | 0.539692 | 0.652008 | 0.010207 | 0.040486 |
+| domain:medicine | 4426 | 0.580660 | 0.690465 | 0.010592 | 0.036431 |
+| domain:education | 4264 | 0.444887 | 0.564493 | 0.019199 | 0.063230 |
+| domain:cuisine | 4025 | 0.601491 | 0.707081 | 0.009876 | 0.038942 |
+| domain:customs | 3538 | 0.561334 | 0.667044 | 0.011503 | 0.042655 |
+
+## Form head
+
+Masked token accuracy 0.995187. Sentence failures 11442.0 of 99816.0 supervised sentences.
+
+Confusion rows are gold labels and columns are predicted labels.
+
+| Gold | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| 0 | 1716965.0 | 3207.0 | 1664.0 | 723.0 | 1409.0 |
+| 1 | 3162.0 | 765428.0 | 646.0 | 384.0 | 0.0 |
+| 2 | 1694.0 | 884.0 | 482275.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
+| 3 | 761.0 | 376.0 | 0.0 | 83627.0 | 0.0 |
+| 4 | 973.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 235631.0 |
+
+## Tone head
+
+Masked token accuracy 0.991522. Sentence failures 20342.0 of 99818.0 supervised sentences.
+
+Confusion rows are gold labels and columns are predicted labels.
+
+| Gold | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| 0 | 1912413.0 | 2812.0 | 3170.0 | 1620.0 | 868.0 | 1560.0 |
+| 1 | 2677.0 | 447829.0 | 1047.0 | 550.0 | 430.0 | 925.0 |
+| 2 | 3123.0 | 1024.0 | 560326.0 | 824.0 | 272.0 | 1282.0 |
+| 3 | 1667.0 | 551.0 | 807.0 | 262195.0 | 213.0 | 380.0 |
+| 4 | 689.0 | 399.0 | 239.0 | 292.0 | 118253.0 | 347.0 |
+| 5 | 1341.0 | 962.0 | 1319.0 | 401.0 | 314.0 | 453949.0 |
+
+## Boundary head
+
+Masked token accuracy 0.997954. Sentence failures 11518.0 of 99869.0 supervised sentences.
+
+Confusion rows are gold labels and columns are predicted labels.
+
+| Gold | 0 | 1 |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| 0 | 6970291.0 | 8481.0 |
+| 1 | 11122.0 | 2593453.0 |
+
+## Case head
+
+Masked token accuracy 0.991455. Sentence failures 30768.0 of 99820.0 supervised sentences.
+
+Confusion rows are gold labels and columns are predicted labels.
+
+| Gold | 0 | 1 |
+|---|---:|---:|
+| 0 | 8600922.0 | 26028.0 |
+| 1 | 51969.0 | 448464.0 |
+
+## Anonymized examples
+
+Examples retain hashed IDs, error categories and edit distances.
+
+```json
+[
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "7c85dfd9d8c6a66573151fe285fddb5d5fc2e5e19610c10b734b551019cfe36f",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "form+tone+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "form",
+      "tone",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "7cd33bce9908764eec6f4f18736b4af06e022c58ddfb28b3efff8b213f00fb79",
+    "distance": 5,
+    "category": "form+tone+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "form",
+      "tone",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "72a475b75aa11084b6c4231ba9b1993d9ffa745190ba79c3775a27098f6f63eb",
+    "distance": 5,
+    "category": "form+tone+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "form",
+      "tone",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "6b772a72e477f4bf567996882786d306cea2bef44041c0061bf1f03f0f97dbfa",
+    "distance": 1,
+    "category": "case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": true,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "38d5a4d60821d5ec8ee76b5618ea722778d2cbf2d87eaa3d97034bb917181039",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "form+tone",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "form",
+      "tone"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "7ef3e4d4328a187c36f89f3c69d0bde2219652be72ce2d282d28a5cbd47e95e6",
+    "distance": 1,
+    "category": "tone",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "tone"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "585793bc6ebc17545786b2013bd62911089edb831ccdcb5f71698035f6319caa",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "tone",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "tone"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "accf358483a76a96f99fee18c5ce66d2c0773bea17a5b07a2792e03325e4b60f",
+    "distance": 1,
+    "category": "tone",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "tone"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "a5265676a3087c4758c454ca67fc835fe41fc0d5a23406dc041dceafd7500500",
+    "distance": 1,
+    "category": "case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": true,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "672fc2a4619c790506b3c042b3a509db4899e35b5e41dae980d040b96791e793",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": true,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "69a4e37a5edcd1585eced508bc2a8c5dff59d66e1e7c01d8daa272bedd2f4268",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": true,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "0c93d8265046e84477865d9ded8268480151ff7492e98e3344f96edb65eb4111",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "form+boundary",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "form",
+      "boundary"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "46c8317d94387fa82535a3eedaeabb5a9c0477cda8eb24f46d430f8e409e4c78",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": true,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "837a19ee9ed703d51c53168ea0d45c95b3ba411b90c8cac3d38a76d54290513c",
+    "distance": 10,
+    "category": "form+tone+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "form",
+      "tone",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "956871e0696c5de2c8d26e77a0255eafcc67a8defe11003f25ee778ce6b6b225",
+    "distance": 6,
+    "category": "boundary+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "boundary",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "5cb4d137a76c15f93ac36cb82c13da515b0c005be8353752ffd6043905d348de",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "boundary+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "boundary",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "9c5b2c5b4e927d600b03b00daa0f46ef6eda5d67acb1b6183a3fa2e05f7e5817",
+    "distance": 1,
+    "category": "boundary",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "boundary"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": true
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "88d3dd2412dd8967fcfb809be00f04cca54e950e39c1e1da4d266cf087ed7b8c",
+    "distance": 1,
+    "category": "tone",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "tone"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "74159c331b661b8bcd812a73aa5eeb6b0f30150aebe458268e35deeb296362e8",
+    "distance": 5,
+    "category": "tone+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "tone",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  },
+  {
+    "example_id_sha256": "d3775c826d10ca07eaa08421c12eb5a7d2bf24691a7579093806b846945f5d71",
+    "distance": 2,
+    "category": "tone+case",
+    "head_error_flags": [
+      "tone",
+      "case"
+    ],
+    "case_insensitive_exact": false,
+    "spacing_only": false
+  }
+]
+```
+
+## Next decision
+
+The largest observed error signal is Case modeling.
+error signals overlap. Candidate coverage misses require controlled capacity/context comparisons
+Directional and combined scaling comparisons quantify remaining capacity headroom.