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| Board worlds per arm: [32]. |
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| Justified: Supported at K100. Material outcome: the nominated exact route meets the requirement in the world, within the allowance, on the feasible worlds. Evidence rule: the v1.2 scripted rule, a diagnostic, never Justified. |
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| | Rank | Agent | Both (95% CI) | Material outcome, feasible worlds (95% CI) | Justified (95% CI) | Outcome, all worlds (95% CI) | Evidence rule | Nominate / restrict / none | Wrong restrictions | Median cost | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| | 1 | GPT-6 Astra | 16/32 = 0.5 [0.3189, 0.6811] | 8/16 = 0.5 [0.2465, 0.7535] | 18/32 = 0.5625 [0.3766, 0.7364] | 23/32 = 0.7188 [0.5325, 0.8625] | 0.7188 | 11 / 21 / 0 | 6/16 | $8.02 | |
| | 2 | Sonnet 5.5 | 15/32 = 0.4688 [0.2909, 0.6526] | 9/16 = 0.5625 [0.2988, 0.8025] | 16/32 = 0.5 [0.3189, 0.6811] | 20/32 = 0.625 [0.4369, 0.789] | 0.5 | 20 / 12 / 0 | 1/16 | $1.52 | |
| | 3 | Gemini 4 Argon | 15/32 = 0.4688 [0.2909, 0.6526] | 10/16 = 0.625 [0.3543, 0.848] | 19/32 = 0.5938 [0.4064, 0.763] | 22/32 = 0.6875 [0.4999, 0.8388] | 0.7812 | 16 / 16 / 0 | 4/16 | $12.48 | |
| | 4 | Opus 5.5 | 14/32 = 0.4375 [0.2636, 0.6234] | 9/16 = 0.5625 [0.2988, 0.8025] | 17/32 = 0.5312 [0.3474, 0.7091] | 25/32 = 0.7812 [0.6003, 0.9072] | 0.6562 | 10 / 22 / 0 | 6/16 | $22.46 | |
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