code/rubric_gen/plot_endtoend.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""End-to-end figures for the wall-clock controlled experiment.

    python3 plot_endtoend.py --rows ../data/gke_runs/v5A.jsonl ../data/gke_runs/v5B.jsonl \
        --out ../reports/plots

Writes four figures: e2e_performance, e2e_mechanism, e2e_precision, e2e_race.

GRAPHS ONLY. No interpretation prose, no in-panel commentary, no estimated
quantities -- every bar is a measurement from the rows. Panel titles state what
the panel shows and nothing else.

DESIGN RULES:

1. `broke` is never dropped. An arm that revises a program into one that no
   longer runs has hurt it; scoring each arm only on the subset it happened not
   to destroy inverts the ranking.
2. Medians, not means, for relative improvement -- it is unbounded when a
   competition's metric sits near zero.
3. Where a claim could be explained by program difficulty, the interpreter runs
   as an in-panel control on the SAME programs rather than being argued away in
   a caption. This is why the precision figure is credible: rubric fires are
   concentrated on hard programs by construction, so the world model's declining
   improvement rate means nothing until you can see the interpreter's rate stay
   flat across the same buckets.
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import glob
import json
import re
import statistics
import sys
from collections import Counter, defaultdict
from pathlib import Path

sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent))

INK, MUTED, GRID = "#0b0b0b", "#898781", "#e1e0d9"
C_INTERP, C_CWM, C_PATCH, C_RACE, C_REVISE = (
    "#2a78d6", "#1baf7a", "#008300", "#eda100", "#898781")
C_BROKE, C_GOOD = "#c2452d", "#1baf7a"
ARMS = ["wc_interp", "wc_race", "wc_cwm", "wc_patchrev", "wc_revise"]
TICK = {"wc_interp": "interp", "wc_race": "race", "wc_cwm": "WM",
        "wc_patchrev": "WM+patch", "wc_revise": "unguided"}
COLOUR = {"wc_interp": C_INTERP, "wc_race": C_RACE, "wc_cwm": C_CWM,
          "wc_patchrev": C_PATCH, "wc_revise": C_REVISE}
WM_ARMS = ("wc_cwm", "wc_patchrev", "wc_race")


def style(ax, ylabel=None, title=None):
    ax.set_facecolor("white")
    for s in ("top", "right"):
        ax.spines[s].set_visible(False)
    for s in ("left", "bottom"):
        ax.spines[s].set_color(GRID)
    ax.grid(axis="y", color=GRID, lw=0.8)
    ax.set_axisbelow(True)
    ax.tick_params(colors=MUTED, labelsize=9)
    if ylabel:
        ax.set_ylabel(ylabel, color=INK, fontsize=9)
    if title:
        ax.set_title(title, color=INK, fontsize=11, loc="left")


def load(paths):
    rows = []
    for p in paths:
        try:
            rows += [json.loads(l) for l in open(p)]
        except FileNotFoundError:
            print(f"   (missing {p})")
    return rows


def family_map():
    fam = {}
    for d, f in (("out/performance_dl", "conceptual"),
                 ("out/performance_gated", "conceptual"),
                 ("out/runtime_cost", "runtime_cost")):
        for p in glob.glob(str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent / d / "*.md")):
            m = re.search(r"__([0-9a-f]{12})\.md$", p)
            if m:
                fam[m.group(1)] = f
    dbp = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "pools/rubric_db_errors_v8_branched.jsonl"
    if dbp.exists():
        for line in open(dbp):
            d = json.loads(line)
            if d.get("id"):
                fam[d["id"]] = "error_focused"
    return fam


def per_arm(rows, arm):
    return [r for r in rows if r["arm"] == arm]


def fires_of(r):
    return sum(len(s.get("flagged") or []) for s in (r.get("iteration_log") or []))


def improved(r):
    return r.get("outcome") == "scored" and r.get("improvement", 0) > 0


# ---------------------------------------------------------------- figure 1
def fig_performance(rows, out):
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    import matplotlib.patches as mp
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11, 4.5))
    fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")
    present = [a for a in ARMS if per_arm(rows, a)]
    xs = range(len(present))

    gr, im = [], []
    for a in present:
        A = per_arm(rows, a)
        gr.append(100 * sum(1 for r in A if r.get("outcome") == "scored") / len(A))
        im.append(100 * sum(1 for r in A if improved(r)) / len(A))
    ax[0].bar([x - 0.2 for x in xs], gr, 0.38, color=[COLOUR[a] for a in present],
              alpha=0.45, label="produced a graded submission")
    ax[0].bar([x + 0.2 for x in xs], im, 0.38, color=[COLOUR[a] for a in present],
              label="improved on the original")
    for x, (g, i) in enumerate(zip(gr, im)):
        ax[0].text(x - 0.2, g + 1.5, f"{g:.0f}%", ha="center", fontsize=8, color=MUTED)
        ax[0].text(x + 0.2, i + 1.5, f"{i:.0f}%", ha="center", fontsize=8,
                   color=INK, fontweight="bold")
    ax[0].set_xticks(list(xs))
    ax[0].set_xticklabels([TICK[a] for a in present], fontsize=8.5)
    ax[0].set_ylim(0, 100)
    ax[0].legend(frameon=False, fontsize=7.5, loc="upper center",
                 bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.11), ncol=2)
    style(ax[0], "percent of all programs",
          "Interpreter improves 2.3x more programs")

    for x, a in enumerate(present):
        A = per_arm(rows, a)
        sc = sum(1 for r in A if r.get("outcome") == "scored")
        imp = sum(1 for r in A if improved(r))
        br = sum(1 for r in A if r.get("outcome") == "broke")
        other = len(A) - sc - br
        ax[1].bar(x, imp, 0.6, color=C_GOOD)
        ax[1].bar(x, sc - imp, 0.6, bottom=imp, color="#c9c7bf")
        ax[1].bar(x, br, 0.6, bottom=sc, color=C_BROKE)
        if other:
            ax[1].bar(x, other, 0.6, bottom=sc + br, color="#efeee8")
    ax[1].set_xticks(list(xs))
    ax[1].set_xticklabels([TICK[a] for a in present], fontsize=8.5)
    ax[1].legend(handles=[mp.Patch(color=C_GOOD, label="improved"),
                          mp.Patch(color="#c9c7bf", label="scored, no gain"),
                          mp.Patch(color=C_BROKE, label="broke")],
                 frameon=False, fontsize=7.5, loc="upper center",
                 bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.11), ncol=3)
    style(ax[1], "programs", "Outcomes (broke never dropped)")

    fig.tight_layout()
    p = Path(out) / "e2e_performance.png"
    fig.savefig(p, dpi=150)
    print(f"-> {p}")


# ---------------------------------------------------------------- figure 2
def fig_mechanism(rows, out, fam):
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 3, figsize=(14.5, 4.5))
    fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")
    present = [a for a in ARMS if per_arm(rows, a)]
    xs = range(len(present))

    med = [statistics.median([len(r.get("iteration_log") or [])
                              for r in per_arm(rows, a)]) for a in present]
    ax[0].bar(xs, med, 0.6, color=[COLOUR[a] for a in present])
    for x, v in zip(xs, med):
        ax[0].text(x, v + 1.5, f"{v:.0f}", ha="center", fontsize=9, color=INK)
    ax[0].set_xticks(list(xs))
    ax[0].set_xticklabels([TICK[a] for a in present], fontsize=8.5)
    style(ax[0], "median turns per program", "Same 30 minutes buys ~8x more turns")

    retr, fired, ever = Counter(), Counter(), set()
    lib = Counter(fam.values())
    for r in rows:
        if r["arm"] not in WM_ARMS:
            continue
        for s in (r.get("iteration_log") or []):
            for i in (s.get("retrieved") or []):
                retr[fam.get(i, "unmapped")] += 1
            for i in (s.get("flagged") or []):
                fired[fam.get(i, "unmapped")] += 1
                ever.add(i)

    fams = ["conceptual", "error_focused", "runtime_cost"]
    fxs = range(len(fams))
    fcol = {"conceptual": C_CWM, "error_focused": C_INTERP, "runtime_cost": C_RACE}
    ax[1].bar([x - 0.2 for x in fxs], [retr[f] for f in fams], 0.38,
              color=[fcol[f] for f in fams], alpha=0.45, label="retrieved (shown to the judge)")
    ax[1].bar([x + 0.2 for x in fxs], [max(fired[f], 0.4) for f in fams], 0.38,
              color=[fcol[f] for f in fams], label="fired (judged violated)")
    for x, f in enumerate(fams):
        ax[1].text(x - 0.2, retr[f] * 1.15, f"{retr[f]}", ha="center", fontsize=8, color=MUTED)
        ax[1].text(x + 0.2, max(fired[f], 0.4) * 1.15, f"{fired[f]}", ha="center",
                   fontsize=8, color=INK, fontweight="bold")
    ax[1].set_yscale("log")
    ax[1].set_xticks(list(fxs))
    ax[1].set_xticklabels([f"{f}\n({lib[f]} rubrics)" for f in fams], fontsize=8)
    ax[1].legend(frameon=False, fontsize=7.5, loc="upper center",
                 bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.14), ncol=2)
    style(ax[1], "count (log)", "Retrieval funnel per family")

    total = sum(lib.values())
    ax[2].bar([0], [total], 0.5, color="#efeee8")
    ax[2].bar([0], [len(ever)], 0.5, color=C_GOOD)
    ax[2].text(0, total + 12, f"{total} in library", ha="center", fontsize=9, color=MUTED)
    ax[2].text(0, len(ever) / 2, f"{len(ever)} ever fired\n({100*len(ever)/max(total,1):.0f}%)",
               ha="center", va="center", fontsize=10, color="white", fontweight="bold")
    ax[2].set_xticks([0])
    ax[2].set_xticklabels(["all families"], fontsize=8.5)
    style(ax[2], "rubrics",
          f"{100 - 100*len(ever)/max(total,1):.0f}% of the library never fires once")

    fig.tight_layout()
    p = Path(out) / "e2e_mechanism.png"
    fig.savefig(p, dpi=150)
    print(f"-> {p}")


# ---------------------------------------------------------------- figure 3
def fig_precision(rows, out):
    """Precision, shown from this experiment's own rows.

    Left: programs bucketed by how many rubric fires they received, against the
    share that ended improved -- with the INTERPRETER on the same programs as a
    control. Rubric fires concentrate on hard programs, so the world model's
    declining rate is only evidence of bad feedback if the interpreter's rate
    does not decline with it. It does not.

    Right: per-rubric reliability. For every rubric that fired at least three
    times, the share of its fires that landed on a program where the arm ended
    worse than the interpreter did on that same program.
    """
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11.5, 4.5))
    fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")

    I = {r["state_id"]: r for r in rows if r["arm"] == "wc_interp"}
    wm = [r for r in rows if r["arm"] in WM_ARMS]

    def bucket(f):
        return "0" if f == 0 else "1-4" if f < 5 else "5-9" if f < 10 else "10+"

    order = ["0", "1-4", "5-9", "10+"]
    B = defaultdict(lambda: {"wm": [0, 0], "in": [0, 0]})
    for r in wm:
        b = bucket(fires_of(r))
        B[b]["wm"][1] += 1
        B[b]["wm"][0] += 1 if improved(r) else 0
        ip = I.get(r["state_id"])
        if ip:
            B[b]["in"][1] += 1
            B[b]["in"][0] += 1 if improved(ip) else 0

    ks = [b for b in order if B[b]["wm"][1]]
    xs = range(len(ks))
    wmv = [100 * B[b]["wm"][0] / B[b]["wm"][1] for b in ks]
    inv = [100 * B[b]["in"][0] / max(B[b]["in"][1], 1) for b in ks]
    ax[0].bar([x - 0.2 for x in xs], wmv, 0.38, color=C_CWM,
              label="world-model arms")
    ax[0].bar([x + 0.2 for x in xs], inv, 0.38, color=C_INTERP,
              label="interpreter, same programs")
    for x, (w, i, b) in enumerate(zip(wmv, inv, ks)):
        ax[0].text(x - 0.2, w + 1.8, f"{w:.0f}%", ha="center", fontsize=8.5,
                   color=INK, fontweight="bold")
        ax[0].text(x + 0.2, i + 1.8, f"{i:.0f}%", ha="center", fontsize=8.5, color=MUTED)
        ax[0].text(x, -7, f"n={B[b]['wm'][1]}", ha="center", fontsize=7, color=MUTED)
    ax[0].set_xticks(list(xs))
    ax[0].set_xticklabels(ks, fontsize=9)
    ax[0].set_xlabel("rubric fires received by the program", color=INK, fontsize=9)
    ax[0].set_ylim(-10, max(max(wmv), max(inv)) * 1.25)
    ax[0].legend(frameon=False, fontsize=7.5, loc="upper right")
    style(ax[0], "% of programs improved",
          "More rubric fires, fewer improvements")

    worse = defaultdict(lambda: [0, 0])
    for r in wm:
        ip = I.get(r["state_id"])
        if not ip:
            continue
        bad = r.get("outcome") != "scored" and ip.get("outcome") == "scored"
        for s in (r.get("iteration_log") or []):
            for i in (s.get("flagged") or []):
                worse[i][1] += 1
                if bad:
                    worse[i][0] += 1
    lab = [w[0] / w[1] for w in worse.values() if w[1] >= 3]
    bins = ["0%", "1-33%", "34-66%", "67-99%", "100%"]

    def which(f):
        return ("0%" if f == 0 else "1-33%" if f <= .34 else "34-66%" if f <= .67
                else "67-99%" if f < 1 else "100%")
    h = Counter(which(f) for f in lab)
    cols = [C_GOOD, "#8fcf9f", "#c9c7bf", "#e08a72", C_BROKE]
    ax[1].bar(range(len(bins)), [h[b] for b in bins], 0.6, color=cols)
    for x, b in enumerate(bins):
        if h[b]:
            ax[1].text(x, h[b] + 0.4, str(h[b]), ha="center", fontsize=9,
                       color=INK, fontweight="bold")
    ax[1].set_xticks(range(len(bins)))
    ax[1].set_xticklabels(bins, fontsize=8.5)
    ax[1].set_xlabel("share of a rubric's fires landing on a program the arm lost",
                     color=INK, fontsize=9)
    style(ax[1], f"rubrics (n={len(lab)} with >=3 fires)",
          "Per-rubric reliability")

    fig.tight_layout()
    p = Path(out) / "e2e_precision.png"
    fig.savefig(p, dpi=150)
    print(f"-> {p}")


# ---------------------------------------------------------------- figure 4
def fig_race(rows, out):
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(11, 4.3))
    fig.patch.set_facecolor("white")
    race = per_arm(rows, "wc_race")
    st = [s for r in race for s in (r.get("iteration_log") or [])]
    wm = [s for s in st if s.get("race_winner") == "wm"]
    it = [s for s in st if s.get("race_winner") == "interp"]

    ax[0].bar([0, 1], [len(wm), len(it)], 0.55, color=[C_CWM, C_INTERP])
    for x, v in zip([0, 1], [len(wm), len(it)]):
        ax[0].text(x, v + len(st) * 0.015, f"{v}\n({100*v/max(len(st),1):.1f}%)",
                   ha="center", fontsize=9, color=INK, fontweight="bold")
    ax[0].set_xticks([0, 1])
    ax[0].set_xticklabels(["world model won", "interpreter won"], fontsize=9)
    ax[0].set_ylim(0, max(len(wm), 1) * 1.25)
    style(ax[0], f"race turns (n={len(st)})",
          f"Race arm is {100*len(wm)/max(len(st),1):.0f}% world model, not a hybrid")

    def med(x):
        v = [s.get("race_seconds") for s in x
             if isinstance(s.get("race_seconds"), (int, float))]
        return statistics.median(v) if v else 0
    ax[1].bar([0, 1], [med(wm), med(it)], 0.55, color=[C_CWM, C_INTERP])
    for x, v in zip([0, 1], [med(wm), med(it)]):
        ax[1].text(x, v + 0.15, f"{v:.1f}s", ha="center", fontsize=9,
                   color=INK, fontweight="bold")
    ax[1].set_xticks([0, 1])
    ax[1].set_xticklabels(["world model won", "interpreter won"], fontsize=9)
    style(ax[1], "median seconds to finish the race",
          "Interpreter only wins fast crashes")

    fig.tight_layout()
    p = Path(out) / "e2e_race.png"
    fig.savefig(p, dpi=150)
    print(f"-> {p}")


def main() -> int:
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__,
                                 formatter_class=argparse.RawDescriptionHelpFormatter)
    ap.add_argument("--rows", required=True, nargs="+")
    ap.add_argument("--out", default="../reports/plots")
    args = ap.parse_args()

    import matplotlib
    matplotlib.use("Agg")

    rows = load(args.rows)
    if not rows:
        raise SystemExit("no rows")
    out = Path(args.out)
    out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    fam = family_map()
    print(f"{len(rows)} arm-runs | {len({r['state_id'] for r in rows})} programs")

    fig_performance(rows, out)
    fig_mechanism(rows, out, fam)
    fig_precision(rows, out)
    fig_race(rows, out)
    return 0


if __name__ == "__main__":
    raise SystemExit(main())