Refresh 2026-10-18
Browse files- README.md +1 -1
- data/README.md +1 -1
- data/answers.jsonl +66 -66
- data/questions.jsonl +66 -66
README.md
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@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ tags: [finance, forecasting, benchmark, time-series, no-look-ahead]
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---
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# FinzData Forecast Bench
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Release 2026-10-
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Each question is frozen as of its date and its context uses only data that was public then, so there is no look-ahead: a model cannot have seen the answer in training if it was trained before the resolution date. Answers are released after they resolve. Score with the Brier score and accuracy. Data from FinzData (https://finzdata.com).
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---
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# FinzData Forecast Bench
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Release 2026-10-18.
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Each question is frozen as of its date and its context uses only data that was public then, so there is no look-ahead: a model cannot have seen the answer in training if it was trained before the resolution date. Answers are released after they resolve. Score with the Brier score and accuracy. Data from FinzData (https://finzdata.com).
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data/README.md
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
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# FinzData Forecast Bench
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Release 2026-10-
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Each question is frozen as of its date and its context uses only data that was public then, so there is no look-ahead: a model cannot have seen the answer in training if it was trained before the resolution date. Answers are released after they resolve. Score with the Brier score and accuracy. Data from FinzData (https://finzdata.com).
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# FinzData Forecast Bench
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+
Release 2026-10-18.
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Each question is frozen as of its date and its context uses only data that was public then, so there is no look-ahead: a model cannot have seen the answer in training if it was trained before the resolution date. Answers are released after they resolve. Score with the Brier score and accuracy. Data from FinzData (https://finzdata.com).
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data/answers.jsonl
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@@ -1,69 +1,69 @@
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-
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{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "EEM-2025-04-
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{"id": "EEM-2025-04-
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{"id": "EFA-2025-04-
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{"id": "EFA-2025-04-
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{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "GLD-2025-04-
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{"id": "GLD-2025-04-
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{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-
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{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-
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{"id": "HYG-2025-04-
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{"id": "HYG-2025-04-
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{"id": "IEF-2025-04-
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{"id": "IEF-2025-04-
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{"id": "IWM-2025-04-
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{"id": "IWM-2025-04-
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{"id": "JPM-2025-04-
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{"id": "JPM-2025-04-
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{"id": "META-2025-04-
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{"id": "META-2025-04-
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{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-
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{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-
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{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-
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{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-
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{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-
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| 33 |
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{"id": "SLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "SLV-2025-04-
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| 35 |
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{"id": "SPY-2025-04-
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{"id": "SPY-2025-04-
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{"id": "TLT-2025-04-
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{"id": "TLT-2025-04-
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{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-
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{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-
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{"id": "USO-2025-04-
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{"id": "USO-2025-04-
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{"id": "UUP-2025-04-
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{"id": "UUP-2025-04-
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{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLB-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLB-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLE-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLE-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLF-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLF-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLI-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLI-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLK-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLK-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLP-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLP-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLU-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLU-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLY-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLY-2025-04-
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{"id": "XOM-2025-04-
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{"id": "XOM-2025-04-
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-22"}
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-07-03"}
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-05-01-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-22"}
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "EEM-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "EEM-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "EFA-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "EFA-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "GLD-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "GLD-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "HYG-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "HYG-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "IEF-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "IEF-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "IWM-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "IWM-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "JPM-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "JPM-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "META-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "META-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "SLV-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "SLV-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "SPY-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "SPY-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "TLT-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "TLT-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "USO-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "USO-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "UUP-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "UUP-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLB-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLB-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLE-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLE-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLF-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLF-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLI-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLI-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLK-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLK-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLP-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLP-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLU-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLU-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLV-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLV-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XLY-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XLY-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "XOM-2025-04-16-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-07"}
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{"id": "XOM-2025-04-16-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-06-18"}
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-21d", "answer": false, "resolves_on": "2025-05-22"}
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-63d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-07-03"}
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-05-01-21d", "answer": true, "resolves_on": "2025-05-22"}
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data/questions.jsonl
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-
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{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "EEM-2025-04-
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{"id": "EEM-2025-04-
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{"id": "EFA-2025-04-
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{"id": "EFA-2025-04-
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{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-
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{"id": "GLD-2025-04-
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{"id": "GLD-2025-04-
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{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-
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{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-
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{"id": "HYG-2025-04-
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{"id": "HYG-2025-04-
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{"id": "IEF-2025-04-
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{"id": "IEF-2025-04-
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{"id": "IWM-2025-04-
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{"id": "IWM-2025-04-
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{"id": "JPM-2025-04-
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{"id": "JPM-2025-04-
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{"id": "META-2025-04-
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{"id": "META-2025-04-
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{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-
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{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-
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{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-
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{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-
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{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "SLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "SLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "SPY-2025-04-
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{"id": "SPY-2025-04-
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{"id": "TLT-2025-04-
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{"id": "TLT-2025-04-
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{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-
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{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-
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{"id": "USO-2025-04-
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{"id": "USO-2025-04-
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{"id": "UUP-2025-04-
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{"id": "UUP-2025-04-
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{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLB-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLB-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLE-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLE-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLF-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLF-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLI-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLI-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLK-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLK-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLP-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLP-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLU-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLU-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLV-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLY-2025-04-
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{"id": "XLY-2025-04-
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{"id": "XOM-2025-04-
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{"id": "XOM-2025-04-
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-21d", "symbol": "AAPL", "asof": "2025-05-01", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will AAPL's close 21 trading days after 2025-05-01 be above its close on 2025-05-01?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-22", "context": {"close_asof": 213.32, "ret_21d": 0.1203, "ret_252d": -0.0499}}
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{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-63d", "symbol": "AAPL", "asof": "2025-05-01", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will AAPL's close 63 trading days after 2025-05-01 be above its close on 2025-05-01?", "resolves_on": "2025-07-03", "context": {"close_asof": 213.32, "ret_21d": 0.1203, "ret_252d": -0.0499}}
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{"id": "AMZN-2025-05-01-21d", "symbol": "AMZN", "asof": "2025-05-01", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will AMZN's close 21 trading days after 2025-05-01 be above its close on 2025-05-01?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-22", "context": {"close_asof": 190.2, "ret_21d": 0.0496, "ret_252d": 0.0799}}
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| 1 |
+
{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "AAPL", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will AAPL's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 194.27, "ret_21d": -0.1231, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 2 |
+
{"id": "AAPL-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "AAPL", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will AAPL's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 194.27, "ret_21d": -0.1231, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 3 |
+
{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "AMZN", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will AMZN's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 174.33, "ret_21d": -0.1332, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 4 |
+
{"id": "AMZN-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "AMZN", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will AMZN's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 174.33, "ret_21d": -0.1332, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 5 |
+
{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will BTC-USD's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 84028.72, "ret_21d": -0.0333, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 6 |
+
{"id": "BTC-USD-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will BTC-USD's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 84028.72, "ret_21d": -0.0333, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 7 |
+
{"id": "EEM-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "EEM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will EEM's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 41.6, "ret_21d": -0.0626, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 8 |
+
{"id": "EEM-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "EEM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will EEM's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 41.6, "ret_21d": -0.0626, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 9 |
+
{"id": "EFA-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "EFA", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will EFA's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 80.23, "ret_21d": -0.0336, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 10 |
+
{"id": "EFA-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "EFA", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will EFA's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 80.23, "ret_21d": -0.0336, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 11 |
+
{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "ETH-USD", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will ETH-USD's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 1577.27, "ret_21d": -0.2152, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 12 |
+
{"id": "ETH-USD-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "ETH-USD", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will ETH-USD's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 1577.27, "ret_21d": -0.2152, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 13 |
+
{"id": "GLD-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "GLD", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will GLD's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 307.47, "ret_21d": 0.1051, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 14 |
+
{"id": "GLD-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "GLD", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will GLD's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 307.47, "ret_21d": 0.1051, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 15 |
+
{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "GOOGL", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will GOOGL's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 153.33, "ret_21d": -0.0711, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 16 |
+
{"id": "GOOGL-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "GOOGL", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will GOOGL's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 153.33, "ret_21d": -0.0711, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 17 |
+
{"id": "HYG-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "HYG", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will HYG's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 77.32, "ret_21d": -0.0224, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 18 |
+
{"id": "HYG-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "HYG", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will HYG's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 77.32, "ret_21d": -0.0224, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 19 |
+
{"id": "IEF-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "IEF", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will IEF's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 94.95, "ret_21d": 0.0057, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 20 |
+
{"id": "IEF-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "IEF", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will IEF's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 94.95, "ret_21d": 0.0057, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 21 |
+
{"id": "IWM-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "IWM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will IWM's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 184.97, "ret_21d": -0.1003, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 22 |
+
{"id": "IWM-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "IWM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will IWM's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 184.97, "ret_21d": -0.1003, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 23 |
+
{"id": "JPM-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "JPM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will JPM's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 229.61, "ret_21d": -0.0853, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 24 |
+
{"id": "JPM-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "JPM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will JPM's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 229.61, "ret_21d": -0.0853, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 25 |
+
{"id": "META-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "META", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will META's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 502.31, "ret_21d": -0.1779, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 26 |
+
{"id": "META-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "META", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will META's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 502.31, "ret_21d": -0.1779, "ret_252d": null}}
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| 27 |
+
{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "MSFT", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will MSFT's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 371.61, "ret_21d": -0.0471, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 28 |
+
{"id": "MSFT-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "MSFT", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will MSFT's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 371.61, "ret_21d": -0.0471, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 29 |
+
{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "NVDA", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will NVDA's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 104.49, "ret_21d": -0.0815, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 30 |
+
{"id": "NVDA-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "NVDA", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will NVDA's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 104.49, "ret_21d": -0.0815, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 31 |
+
{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "QQQ", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will QQQ's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 444.18, "ret_21d": -0.083, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 32 |
+
{"id": "QQQ-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "QQQ", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will QQQ's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 444.18, "ret_21d": -0.083, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 33 |
+
{"id": "SLV-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "SLV", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will SLV's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 29.76, "ret_21d": -0.0252, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 34 |
+
{"id": "SLV-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "SLV", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will SLV's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 29.76, "ret_21d": -0.0252, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 35 |
+
{"id": "SPY-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "SPY", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will SPY's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 525.66, "ret_21d": -0.0755, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 36 |
+
{"id": "SPY-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "SPY", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will SPY's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 525.66, "ret_21d": -0.0755, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 37 |
+
{"id": "TLT-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "TLT", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will TLT's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 88.31, "ret_21d": -0.0096, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 38 |
+
{"id": "TLT-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "TLT", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will TLT's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 88.31, "ret_21d": -0.0096, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 39 |
+
{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "TSLA", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will TSLA's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 241.55, "ret_21d": -0.1121, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 40 |
+
{"id": "TSLA-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "TSLA", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will TSLA's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 241.55, "ret_21d": -0.1121, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 41 |
+
{"id": "USO-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "USO", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will USO's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 67.75, "ret_21d": -0.1017, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 42 |
+
{"id": "USO-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "USO", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will USO's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 67.75, "ret_21d": -0.1017, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 43 |
+
{"id": "UUP-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "UUP", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will UUP's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 27.28, "ret_21d": -0.0478, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 44 |
+
{"id": "UUP-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "UUP", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will UUP's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 27.28, "ret_21d": -0.0478, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 45 |
+
{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "VNQ", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will VNQ's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 85.56, "ret_21d": -0.05, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 46 |
+
{"id": "VNQ-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "VNQ", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will VNQ's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 85.56, "ret_21d": -0.05, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 47 |
+
{"id": "XLB-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLB", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLB's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 40.1, "ret_21d": -0.0748, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 48 |
+
{"id": "XLB-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLB", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLB's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 40.1, "ret_21d": -0.0748, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 49 |
+
{"id": "XLE-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLE", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLE's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 39.85, "ret_21d": -0.1501, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 50 |
+
{"id": "XLE-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLE", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLE's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 39.85, "ret_21d": -0.1501, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 51 |
+
{"id": "XLF-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLF", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLF's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 46.53, "ret_21d": -0.0746, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 52 |
+
{"id": "XLF-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLF", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLF's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 46.53, "ret_21d": -0.0746, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 53 |
+
{"id": "XLI-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLI", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLI's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 124.62, "ret_21d": -0.0672, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 54 |
+
{"id": "XLI-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLI", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLI's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 124.62, "ret_21d": -0.0672, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 55 |
+
{"id": "XLK-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLK", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLK's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 96.96, "ret_21d": -0.0916, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 56 |
+
{"id": "XLK-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLK", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLK's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 96.96, "ret_21d": -0.0916, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 57 |
+
{"id": "XLP-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLP", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLP's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 80.16, "ret_21d": 0.0033, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 58 |
+
{"id": "XLP-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLP", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLP's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 80.16, "ret_21d": 0.0033, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 59 |
+
{"id": "XLU-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLU", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLU's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 38.49, "ret_21d": -0.0059, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 60 |
+
{"id": "XLU-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLU", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLU's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 38.49, "ret_21d": -0.0059, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 61 |
+
{"id": "XLV-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLV", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLV's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 136.29, "ret_21d": -0.0584, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 62 |
+
{"id": "XLV-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLV", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLV's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 136.29, "ret_21d": -0.0584, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 63 |
+
{"id": "XLY-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XLY", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XLY's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 92.12, "ret_21d": -0.0934, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 64 |
+
{"id": "XLY-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XLY", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XLY's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 92.12, "ret_21d": -0.0934, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 65 |
+
{"id": "XOM-2025-04-16-21d", "symbol": "XOM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will XOM's close 21 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-07", "context": {"close_asof": 104.19, "ret_21d": -0.119, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 66 |
+
{"id": "XOM-2025-04-16-63d", "symbol": "XOM", "asof": "2025-04-16", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will XOM's close 63 trading days after 2025-04-16 be above its close on 2025-04-16?", "resolves_on": "2025-06-18", "context": {"close_asof": 104.19, "ret_21d": -0.119, "ret_252d": null}}
|
| 67 |
{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-21d", "symbol": "AAPL", "asof": "2025-05-01", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will AAPL's close 21 trading days after 2025-05-01 be above its close on 2025-05-01?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-22", "context": {"close_asof": 213.32, "ret_21d": 0.1203, "ret_252d": -0.0499}}
|
| 68 |
{"id": "AAPL-2025-05-01-63d", "symbol": "AAPL", "asof": "2025-05-01", "horizon": 63, "question": "Will AAPL's close 63 trading days after 2025-05-01 be above its close on 2025-05-01?", "resolves_on": "2025-07-03", "context": {"close_asof": 213.32, "ret_21d": 0.1203, "ret_252d": -0.0499}}
|
| 69 |
{"id": "AMZN-2025-05-01-21d", "symbol": "AMZN", "asof": "2025-05-01", "horizon": 21, "question": "Will AMZN's close 21 trading days after 2025-05-01 be above its close on 2025-05-01?", "resolves_on": "2025-05-22", "context": {"close_asof": 190.2, "ret_21d": 0.0496, "ret_252d": 0.0799}}
|