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Streamline the card: one leaderboard table, a chart, shorter notes

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Merges the Leaderboard and Baseline results tables into one, adds a two-panel chart (accuracy vs KL, accuracy vs latency with price), and trims the prose from about 3,000 to 1,400 words. No numbers changed.

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  1. README.md +108 -281
  2. assets/leaderboard.png +3 -0
README.md CHANGED
@@ -49,315 +49,142 @@ configs:
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  # Typed Decisions
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- A benchmark for typed probabilistic decisions over shared state. You give a
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- model one piece of unstructured state. It answers several typed questions about
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- that state at once, and every answer is a probability distribution rather than a
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- single label.
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- The schema follows the System One primitives used by
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- [TypeSafe AI](https://typesafe.ai): `noul`, `choice` and `score`. A row replays against any API that implements that shape. This benchmark is
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- independent. It is not affiliated with TypeSafe and it does not reproduce
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- their Jev model.
61
 
62
- ## Leaderboard
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-
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- Scored on the `test` split: 400 cases, 2,000 decisions. General models are
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- scored zero-shot: they have never seen these workflows or their question schemas.
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- | # | Model | Kind | Accuracy ↑ | KL from gold ↓ | Brier ↓ | Latency, p50 end to end ↓ | Price per 1M input tokens ↓ |
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- |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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- | 1 | **[meraGPT Decider 1](https://meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions)** (`sd-1`) | general, zero-shot | **0.768** | **0.096** | **0.052** | **526 ms** | **$0.03** |
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- | 2 | TypeSafe Jev 1.13.0 | general, zero-shot | 0.727 | 1.442 | 0.148 | 710 ms | $0.042 |
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- | 3 | [Featherless Simple Jev](https://simple-jev.featherless.ai) (`Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-classifier`) | general, zero-shot | 0.716 | 0.488 | 0.176 | – (free demo endpoint, rate-limited) | free demo |
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- | 4 | ModernBERT-base (149M) | specialist, fitted per workflow | 0.646 | 0.223 | 0.119 | – | – |
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- | 5 | MiniLM-L6 (22M) | specialist, fitted per workflow | 0.587 | 0.262 | 0.143 | – | – |
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- | 6 | [Jeff-Gemma4-E2B](https://huggingface.co/mstrasser/Jeff-Gemma4-E2B) | general, zero-shot, open weights | 0.561 | 0.403 | 0.219 | – (local only)† | open weights |
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- | 7 | [Jeff-Qwen3.5-2B](https://huggingface.co/mstrasser/Jeff-Qwen3.5-2B) | general, zero-shot, open weights | 0.511 | 0.460 | 0.237 | – (local only)† | open weights |
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- | 8 | [Jeff-Qwen3.5-0.8B](https://huggingface.co/mstrasser/Jeff-Qwen3.5-0.8B) | general, zero-shot, open weights | 0.483 | 0.679 | 0.313 | – (local only)† | open weights |
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- | – | Prior (ignores the input) | reference | 0.470 | 0.347 | 0.189 | – | – |
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- **meraGPT's proprietary model, [Decider 1](https://meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions),
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- is state of the art on this benchmark** as of 2026-09-22. It beats TypeSafe's Jev
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- on accuracy and on every question type, it is faster end to end, and it costs
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- less per token. It answers `POST /v1/systemone` at
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  [meragpt.com](https://meragpt.com/docs/systemone?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions), so the typesafe-sdk works
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- against it by setting `TYPESAFE_BASE_URL`. Full metrics are under
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- [Baseline results](#baseline-results).
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-
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- † The Jeff models were scored on 2026-09-29 through the same client code as the Jev
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- row, against Jeff's own unmodified `jeff-serve` with its default calibration. They
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- were served locally on an M3 Max, so their latency is not comparable to the hosted
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- end-to-end figures above. Details under [What each row is](#what-each-row-is).
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  To add a model, score it on `test` with the full distributions and open a
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- discussion with the numbers and the mode (specialist or generalist) it used.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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- ## What it is for
 
 
 
 
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- One question sits behind the dataset. Does breaking a workflow into typed
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- probabilistic decisions, especially with a shared encoder, buy you a better
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- accuracy / calibration / latency trade-off than direct classification or than
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- prompting an LLM?
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102
- Answering that needs several typed questions over one input, answers that are
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- genuinely probabilistic, and latency you can measure per decision. That is what
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- this is.
 
 
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106
- ## The three question types
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  | Type | Answer | Shape |
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  |---|---|---|
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- | `noul` | yes/no | a single probability that the statement is true |
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- | `choice` | one of N labels | a distribution over labels, plus confidence |
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- | `score` | an ordered rubric | a distribution over integer levels, plus an *expected* score that may fall between levels |
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-
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- Every option carries a written description in `criteria`. Those descriptions are part of the input. Strip them to a bare label list and
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- you have a different, easier task.
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117
- ## Workflows
 
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119
  | Workflow | Decision | Train | Test |
120
  |---|---|---|---|
121
- | `agent_trace_observability` | Assess an agent run to decide whether human review is needed, and how urgent it is. | 300 | 100 |
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- | `customer_service` | Determine the appropriate assistant response and action from a customer thread and account state. | 300 | 100 |
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- | `invoice_processing` | Review a vendor bill against the order and delivery to determine payment, hold or rejection. | 300 | 100 |
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- | `security_incidents` | Decide whether a security alert should be closed, investigated, or contained, from alert data and machine history. | 300 | 100 |
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-
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- Each case asks 5 questions over one shared state.
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-
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- ## Columns
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-
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- | Column | Description |
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- |---|---|
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- | `id` | Case identifier |
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- | `workflow` | Which workflow the case belongs to |
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- | `state` | JSON. The unstructured state, which is the model's input |
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- | `questions` | JSON. The question set, with instructions and criteria |
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- | `gold` | JSON. Full gold answers including every probability |
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- | `factors` | JSON. Latent factors used to build the case. Not model input |
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- | `label_agreement` | JSON. Per question, how much the teacher samples disagreed |
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- | `<question>__label` | Discrete gold answer |
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- | `<question>__confidence` | Gold confidence, on the System One scale |
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- | `<question>__probabilities` | JSON. Full gold distribution |
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- | `<question>__score` | Expected score, for `score` questions |
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- | `<question>__probability_true` | Probability of yes, for `noul` questions |
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145
  `state` and `questions` together are exactly the body of a `POST /v1/systemone`
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- request. You can replay a row without reshaping it.
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-
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- ## Usage
 
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150
  ```python
151
  from datasets import load_dataset
152
  import json
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- ds = load_dataset("LocalLLaMA/typed-decisions", "customer_service", split="test") # benchmark
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- tr = load_dataset("LocalLLaMA/typed-decisions", "customer_service", split="train") # training data
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  row = ds[0]
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-
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- state = json.loads(row["state"])
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- questions = json.loads(row["questions"])
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- gold = json.loads(row["gold"])
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-
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- print(row["category__label"], row["category__confidence"])
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- print(gold["urgency"]["probabilities"]) # distribution over rubric levels
164
  ```
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166
- Score against the full distributions, not just the argmax. Calibration is the
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- point. Report log loss, Brier score and ECE next to accuracy.
168
 
169
  ## How it was built
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171
- 1. Sample a latent skeleton. Each case starts from independently drawn factors:
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- topic, tone, tenure, severity, discrepancy type, whether a constraint was
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- violated, and so on. The spaces are large enough that states essentially
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- never repeat.
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- 2. Render the state. Free text is written by a model conditioned on the
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- skeleton where the task is textual, as in customer threads and alert
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- narratives. It stays structured where the artefact genuinely is structured,
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- as in invoices and agent traces.
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- 3. Label it with a teacher endpoint, sampled 3 times per case at
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- temperature 0.7. The gold is the mean of the sampled
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- distributions. Averaging distributions instead of argmax labels is what
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- leaves the gold soft where a decision is genuinely ambiguous.
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- 4. Check before release: state diversity, label balance, and whether the gold
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- actually tracks the input.
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-
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- ## What a score here means
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-
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- Gold is the mean of three samples from a teacher endpoint of roughly 4B-class
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- capability. A score measures agreement with that teacher. It does not measure
190
- correctness. Three reference points, all measured on the 1600-case set:
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-
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- | Reference | Accuracy | What it is |
193
- |---|---|---|
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- | Majority baseline | 0.520 | ignore the input, always guess the commonest label |
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- | Perfect scenario understanding | 0.704 | a model fitted to the latent factors that generated each case, cross-validated |
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- | Teacher self-agreement | 0.735 | a fresh teacher sample scored against gold built from the others |
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-
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- Read 0.52 as the floor. Around 0.70 is strong. Around 0.75 is saturation.
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-
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- The factor ceiling sits below teacher self-agreement. That is not a mistake. The
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- teacher shares its own idiosyncrasies with the gold, and an outside model does
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- not get that advantage. A score much above 0.75 means a model has learned the
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- teacher's quirks rather than the task.
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-
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- Per-question ceilings vary a lot, from 0.560 on `agent_trace/urgency` to 0.937
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- on `customer_service/category`. Read every score against its own question, not
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- against the mean.
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-
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- A better model can score worse here. Anything right where the teacher is wrong
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- gets penalised. The teacher missed a duplicate invoice whose ID literally
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- matched a prior one.
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-
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- ## Two ways to be scored, and why the difference matters
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-
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- The System One models this benchmark is shaped after are general pretrained
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- models. Their API is one call that takes an arbitrary question schema at request
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- time. No training step, no per-workflow setup. Anything scored here should say which
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- of the two modes it used. The two are not comparable.
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-
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- | | What it is | What it needs | Can it answer an unseen question? |
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- |---|---|---|---|
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- | Specialist | fitted per workflow, label spaces fixed at training time | training data for *these* workflows | No |
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- | Generalist | one model, arbitrary question schemas, zero-shot | training data from *other* workflows | Yes |
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-
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- Train a specialist on these four workflows, score it on them, and you have
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- measured architecture: how cheaply many typed decisions can come out of one
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- input. That is a real question and this benchmark answers it well. It is not a
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- comparison against a general System One model, which has never seen these
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- workflows.
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-
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- To be scored as a generalist, train on other workflows entirely and evaluate
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- here zero-shot. Say which mode you used. A specialist number sitting next to a
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- generalist number, unlabelled, misleads the reader.
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-
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- ## Baseline results
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-
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- Everything below is scored on the `test` split. The first column says what kind
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- of number it is, because they are not all the same kind.
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-
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- | Model | Kind | Acc | Soft acc | Macro F1 | KL | TV | Brier | ECE | Score MAE | Within 1 level | ms/case |
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- |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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- | Uniform | reference | 0.308 | 0.311 | 0.152 | 0.444 | 0.381 | 0.238 | 0.169 | - | - | 0 |
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- | Prior | reference | 0.470 | 0.430 | 0.207 | 0.347 | 0.317 | 0.189 | 0.088 | - | - | 0 |
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- | Jeff-Qwen3.5-0.8B | general, open | 0.483 | 0.436 | 0.346 | 0.679 | 0.370 | 0.313 | 0.251 | 0.770 | 0.657 | 662† |
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- | Jeff-Qwen3.5-2B | general, open | 0.511 | 0.462 | 0.367 | 0.460 | 0.326 | 0.237 | 0.203 | 0.637 | 0.789 | 1,346† |
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- | Jeff-Gemma4-E2B | general, open | 0.561 | 0.479 | 0.408 | 0.403 | 0.303 | 0.219 | 0.188 | 0.536 | 0.849 | 2,272† |
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- | MiniLM-L6 (22M) | specialist | 0.587 | 0.506 | 0.424 | 0.262 | 0.267 | 0.143 | 0.108 | 0.515 | 0.864 | 22 |
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- | ModernBERT-base (149M) | specialist | 0.646 | 0.542 | 0.469 | 0.223 | 0.249 | 0.119 | 0.179 | 0.444 | 0.931 | 349 |
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- | Perfect scenario understanding | ceiling | 0.704 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
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- | TypeSafe Jev 1.13.0 | general | 0.727 | 0.580 | 0.613 | 1.442 | 0.251 | 0.148 | 0.144 | 0.391 | 0.952 | 710 |
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- | Teacher self-agreement | ceiling | 0.735 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
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- | **[meraGPT Decider 1](https://meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions)** | **general** | **0.768** | **0.608** | **0.641** | **0.096** | **0.149** | **0.052** | 0.180 | **0.219** | **0.984** | 526* |
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-
254
- \* p50 end to end from a client, one request at a time, like Jev's 710.
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-
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- † p50 per case from a client on the same machine as the model (M3 Max), not a hosted endpoint.
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-
258
- ### What each row is
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-
260
- **Uniform** puts the same probability on every option. It reads nothing and
261
- knows nothing. It is here to anchor the KL and Brier scale: 0.444 is what no
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- information costs in distribution terms.
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-
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- **Prior** fits each question's label frequencies on the `train` split, then
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- answers those frequencies for every case, ignoring the state entirely. If 67% of
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- `needs_human` golds are true, it answers 0.67 true every time.
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-
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- This is the row to check a learned model against. MiniLM beats it by 9 points
269
- and ModernBERT by 18. That gap is how much of each score comes from reading the
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- input rather than from label frequency. A model that cannot clear it has learned
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- nothing about the state, which is the failure that sank the v0.1 prototype.
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-
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- Prior also has the best ECE on the table, at 0.088, while knowing nothing.
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- Guessing the base rate is perfectly calibrated by construction. That is the
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- clearest argument for reading KL and Brier here instead of ECE.
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-
277
- **Jeff** ([firelex/jeff](https://github.com/firelex/jeff), Apache-2.0) is a family of
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- open Jev-compatible decision models. We scored all three released checkpoints on
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- 2026-09-29 with the same client code as the Jev row, pointed at Jeff's own
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- `jeff-serve` (commit `2c1bfce`) with the fitted temperature each checkpoint ships in
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- `decision_config.json`. The scorer reproduces the Uniform, Prior and Jev rows
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- exactly, there were no failed requests, and the MLX and PyTorch backends agreed on
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- 98 of 100 sampled answers. On this benchmark all three clear the Prior on accuracy
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- (by 1.3 to 9.1 points) but not on KL, and they run overconfident (+0.10 to +0.18).
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- Jeff's own reported 83.1% comes from a different five-benchmark panel, so the two
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- numbers measure different things. If there is a better way to serve these models,
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- open a discussion and we will rescore.
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-
289
- **Perfect scenario understanding** is what a model would score if it recovered
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- the latent factors that generated each case exactly. Measured by fitting those
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- factors to the gold labels with cross-validation. It is optimistic, since the
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- factors are more than the text reveals.
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-
294
- **Teacher self-agreement** is a fresh teacher sample scored against gold built
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- from the other samples. It is the noise floor of the labelling process. Scoring
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- far above it means predicting the teacher's quirks rather than the task.
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-
298
- **TypeSafe Jev 1.13.0** is a measurement, taken on 2026-09-18 through the
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- TypeSafe API (`POST /v1/systemone`, `model: jev-latest`, which reported itself
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- as `jev-1.13.0`). All 400 cases, all 2,000 decisions, zero errors, p50 710ms per
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- case, $0.016 total at the published $0.042/1M input rate. Earlier revisions of
302
- this card carried an estimated range here instead; that estimate is gone.
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-
304
- Jev scores **0.727 against a 0.735 ceiling**, so it has effectively saturated
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- this benchmark. It also clears the 0.704 factor ceiling, meaning it reads these
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- scenarios better than a model that recovers the generating factors exactly.
307
-
308
- **Its distributions are a different story.** Jev's KL from gold is 1.442 against
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- ModernBERT's 0.223 -- six times worse -- while scoring 8 points higher on
310
- accuracy. Jev picks the right label and commits to it; the specialist is right
311
- less often but its uncertainty tracks the teacher's spread much more closely.
312
- Jev is not badly calibrated in absolute terms (ECE 0.144, overconfidence
313
- +0.023); it is confident because it is usually correct. The KL gap is mostly
314
- that this gold is a three-sample teacher spread and Jev does not reproduce that
315
- spread. Which number matters depends on whether you consume the argmax or the
316
- distribution.
317
-
318
- **meraGPT Decider 1** (`state-decider-1`, alias `sd-1`) is meraGPT's proprietary
319
- System One model, scored zero-shot: it had never seen these four workflows or
320
- any of the twenty question schemas. It leads every question type — `noul` 0.840
321
- against Jev's 0.775, `choice` 0.733 against 0.720, `score` 0.739 against 0.696 —
322
- with KL 0.096 against Jev's 1.442. End to end it answers in about half a second
323
- at the median, against Jev's 710 ms, at $0.03 per million input tokens against
324
- Jev's $0.042. [meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1](https://meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions).
325
-
326
- ### Specialist and generalist are not comparable
327
-
328
- Both learned rows are specialists, fitted on the `train` split of the same four
329
- workflows they are scored on. Neither can answer a question it was not fitted
330
- for, so neither can be run zero-shot.
331
-
332
- Jev at 0.727 against the specialist's 0.646 has not beaten it by eight points.
333
- Jev answered all twenty question schemas cold, having never seen this benchmark;
334
- the specialists were fitted on the `train` split of the very workflows they are
335
- scored on and cannot answer anything else at all. Read the gap as the price of
336
- generality, not as a quality ranking. A general model can also score lower while being
337
- the better model, since anything it gets right where the teacher is wrong counts
338
- against it.
339
-
340
- ### Reproducing the specialist rows
341
-
342
- Both use [Adaptive Classifier](https://github.com/codelion/adaptive-classifier)
343
- 0.2.0, one classifier per question, encoder frozen. Configuration was tuned on a
344
- held-out quarter of `train` and never on `test`: mean pooling, `max_length` 512,
345
- 30 epochs, `prototype_weight` 0.3.
346
-
347
- The gap between the two encoders is the trade-off this benchmark exists to
348
- measure. Six points of accuracy cost 16x the latency.
349
-
350
- One harness detail matters for reproducing these. Adaptive Classifier trains on
351
- hard labels, so the gold distribution is normally thrown away at fit time. Each
352
- case is instead entered four times, apportioned across labels in proportion to
353
- its gold, which carries the soft target into a learner that cannot represent one
354
- directly. That single change cut KL by a third and score MAE by 15%, while
355
- barely moving accuracy. The argmax was already right. What improved was the
356
- shape of the predicted distribution, which is what this benchmark is for.
357
-
358
- ## Splits
359
-
360
- Two splits, generated independently. `test` is the benchmark. `train` comes from
361
- a separate run at a different seed, with prefixed case ids. Packaging verifies
362
- that no case id and no state appears in both, and refuses to build if either
363
- does.
 
49
 
50
  # Typed Decisions
51
 
52
+ A benchmark for typed probabilistic decisions. A model gets one piece of
53
+ unstructured state and answers five typed questions about it at once, and every
54
+ answer is a probability distribution, not a single label.
 
55
 
56
+ The schema follows the System One primitives (`noul`, `choice`, `score`) used by
57
+ [TypeSafe AI](https://typesafe.ai), so a row replays against any API with that
58
+ shape. The benchmark is independent: it is not affiliated with TypeSafe and does
59
+ not reproduce their Jev model.
60
 
61
+ ![Accuracy against KL divergence and against latency for every scored model](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LocalLLaMA/typed-decisions/resolve/main/assets/leaderboard.png)
 
 
 
62
 
63
+ ## Leaderboard
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
64
 
65
+ `test` split: 400 cases, 2,000 decisions. General models are scored zero-shot;
66
+ they have never seen these workflows or their question schemas.
67
+
68
+ | # | Model | Kind | Accuracy ↑ | KL from gold ↓ | Brier ↓ | ECE ↓ | p50 latency | Price / 1M input |
69
+ |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70
+ | 1 | **[meraGPT Decider 1](https://meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions)** (`sd-1`) | general, zero-shot | **0.768** | **0.096** | **0.052** | 0.180 | **526 ms** | **$0.03** |
71
+ | 2 | TypeSafe Jev 1.13.0 | general, zero-shot | 0.727 | 1.442 | 0.148 | 0.144 | 710 ms | $0.042 |
72
+ | 3 | [Featherless Simple Jev](https://simple-jev.featherless.ai) (`Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-classifier`) | general, zero-shot | 0.716 | 0.488 | 0.176 | – | – | free demo |
73
+ | 4 | ModernBERT-base (149M) | specialist, fitted per workflow | 0.646 | 0.223 | 0.119 | 0.179 | 349 ms† | – |
74
+ | 5 | MiniLM-L6 (22M) | specialist, fitted per workflow | 0.587 | 0.262 | 0.143 | 0.108 | 22 ms† | – |
75
+ | 6 | [Jeff-Gemma4-E2B](https://huggingface.co/mstrasser/Jeff-Gemma4-E2B) | general, zero-shot, open weights | 0.561 | 0.403 | 0.219 | 0.188 | 2,272 ms† | open weights |
76
+ | 7 | [Jeff-Qwen3.5-2B](https://huggingface.co/mstrasser/Jeff-Qwen3.5-2B) | general, zero-shot, open weights | 0.511 | 0.460 | 0.237 | 0.203 | 1,346 ms† | open weights |
77
+ | 8 | [Jeff-Qwen3.5-0.8B](https://huggingface.co/mstrasser/Jeff-Qwen3.5-0.8B) | general, zero-shot, open weights | 0.483 | 0.679 | 0.313 | 0.251 | 662 ms† | open weights |
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+ | – | Prior (ignores the input) | reference | 0.470 | 0.347 | 0.189 | 0.088 | – | – |
79
+ | – | Uniform (same probability on every option) | reference | 0.308 | 0.444 | 0.238 | 0.169 | – | – |
80
+
81
+ Hosted rows are p50 end to end from a client, one request at a time.
82
+ † Measured on the same machine as the model (M3 Max), not comparable with hosted latency.
83
+
84
+ **[meraGPT Decider 1](https://meragpt.com/models/state-decider-1?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions) is state of
85
+ the art on this benchmark.** It leads Jev on every question type (`noul` 0.840 vs
86
+ 0.775, `choice` 0.733 vs 0.720, `score` 0.739 vs 0.696), its distributions sit far
87
+ closer to the gold (KL 0.096 vs 1.442), it is faster end to end, and it costs less
88
+ per token. It answers `POST /v1/systemone` at
89
  [meragpt.com](https://meragpt.com/docs/systemone?utm_source=huggingface&utm_medium=dataset_card&utm_campaign=typed-decisions), so the typesafe-sdk works
90
+ against it by setting `TYPESAFE_BASE_URL`.
 
 
 
 
 
 
91
 
92
  To add a model, score it on `test` with the full distributions and open a
93
+ discussion with the numbers and the mode (specialist or general) it used.
94
+
95
+ ### Notes on the rows
96
+
97
+ - **Jev 1.13.0** was measured on 2026-09-18 through TypeSafe's API (`jev-latest`,
98
+ which reported `jev-1.13.0`): all 2,000 decisions, zero errors, $0.016 in total.
99
+ Its accuracy is near the 0.735 ceiling, but it puts nearly all its probability
100
+ on one answer, which is where the KL gap comes from. Its confidence is not badly
101
+ calibrated (overconfidence +0.023); the gold is a three-sample spread it does not
102
+ reproduce.
103
+ - **Jeff** ([firelex/jeff](https://github.com/firelex/jeff), Apache-2.0) was scored
104
+ on 2026-09-29 through the same client code as Jev, against Jeff's own
105
+ `jeff-serve` (commit `2c1bfce`) with the calibration each checkpoint ships. All
106
+ three clear the Prior on accuracy but not on KL. Jeff's own 83.1% comes from a
107
+ different five-benchmark panel. If there is a better way to serve them, open a
108
+ discussion and we will rescore.
109
+ - **Specialists** use [Adaptive Classifier](https://github.com/codelion/adaptive-classifier)
110
+ 0.2.0, one classifier per question on a frozen encoder, tuned on a held-out
111
+ quarter of `train` (mean pooling, `max_length` 512, 30 epochs,
112
+ `prototype_weight` 0.3). Each case is entered four times, split across labels in
113
+ proportion to its gold, so the soft target survives hard-label training; that
114
+ cut KL by a third.
115
+ - **Prior** answers each question's `train` label frequencies for every case. It
116
+ has the best ECE while knowing nothing, which is why KL and Brier are the
117
+ columns to read, not ECE.
118
+
119
+ ## Reading a score
120
+
121
+ Gold is the mean of three samples from a teacher of roughly 4B-class capability,
122
+ so a score measures agreement with that teacher, not correctness. A better model
123
+ can score lower wherever the teacher is wrong (it missed a duplicate invoice whose
124
+ ID matched an earlier one).
125
 
126
+ | Reference | Accuracy | What it is |
127
+ |---|---|---|
128
+ | Prior | 0.470 | the floor: label frequencies, ignoring the input |
129
+ | Perfect factor recovery | 0.704 | a model fitted to the latent factors that generated each case |
130
+ | Teacher self-agreement | 0.735 | a fresh teacher sample against gold built from the others |
131
 
132
+ Scores well above 0.735 mean a model is learning the teacher's quirks. Per-question
133
+ ceilings vary from 0.560 (`agent_trace/urgency`) to 0.937
134
+ (`customer_service/category`), so read scores per question as well as on average.
 
135
 
136
+ **Specialist and general numbers are not comparable.** A specialist is fitted on
137
+ `train` for these four workflows and cannot answer anything else. A general model
138
+ takes any question schema at request time and has never seen these. Say which
139
+ mode you used; the gap between them is the price of generality, not a quality
140
+ ranking.
141
 
142
+ ## The data
143
 
144
  | Type | Answer | Shape |
145
  |---|---|---|
146
+ | `noul` | yes/no | probability that the statement is true |
147
+ | `choice` | one of N labels | distribution over labels, plus confidence |
148
+ | `score` | an ordered rubric | distribution over levels, plus an expected score |
 
 
 
149
 
150
+ Every option carries a written description in `criteria`, and the descriptions
151
+ are part of the input.
152
 
153
  | Workflow | Decision | Train | Test |
154
  |---|---|---|---|
155
+ | `agent_trace_observability` | Does an agent run need human review, and how urgently? | 300 | 100 |
156
+ | `customer_service` | The right response and action for a customer thread and account. | 300 | 100 |
157
+ | `invoice_processing` | Pay, hold or reject a vendor bill against its order and delivery. | 300 | 100 |
158
+ | `security_incidents` | Close, investigate or contain a security alert, given machine history. | 300 | 100 |
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
159
 
160
  `state` and `questions` together are exactly the body of a `POST /v1/systemone`
161
+ request. `gold` holds the full gold distributions, and flat
162
+ `<question>__label` / `__probabilities` / `__score` / `__probability_true` columns
163
+ hold the same answers for convenience. `factors` and `label_agreement` describe how
164
+ the case was built and are not model input.
165
 
166
  ```python
167
  from datasets import load_dataset
168
  import json
169
 
170
+ ds = load_dataset("LocalLLaMA/typed-decisions", "customer_service", split="test")
 
171
  row = ds[0]
172
+ state, questions, gold = (json.loads(row[k]) for k in ("state", "questions", "gold"))
173
+ print(gold["urgency"]["probabilities"]) # score against the full distribution
 
 
 
 
 
174
  ```
175
 
176
+ Report KL or log loss and Brier next to accuracy; calibration is the point.
 
177
 
178
  ## How it was built
179
 
180
+ Each case starts from independently sampled latent factors (topic, tone,
181
+ severity, discrepancy type and so on), which a model renders into free text where
182
+ the artefact is textual and keeps structured where it is structured. A teacher
183
+ labels each case three times at temperature 0.7, and the gold is the mean of those
184
+ distributions, so it stays soft where a decision is genuinely ambiguous. Before
185
+ release, an audit checks state diversity, label balance, and that the gold
186
+ actually tracks the input. `train` comes from a separate run at a different seed;
187
+ packaging refuses to build if any case id or state appears in both splits.
188
+
189
+ The write-up behind the benchmark, including the two bugs it exposed in the
190
+ classifier library: [Typed Decisions on Latent Node](https://latentnode.pages.dev/articles/typed-decisions.html).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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