Publish the fixed 300-question benchmark with scoring and prompt provenance

.gitattributes

@@ -58,3 +58,4 @@ saved_model/**/* filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 # Video files - compressed
 *.mp4 filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 *.webm filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
+*.db filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

README-ZH.md

@@ -1,452 +1,101 @@
-# OracleProto：预测评估集
+<div align="center">
+<img src="assets/OracleProto_Logo_Horizontal.svg" alt="OracleProto" width="360">
 
-**英文文档：** [[`English doc`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/README.md)]
+# OracleProto 预测评测数据集
 
-**GitHub 仓库：** [[`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto)]
+**300 道真实事件题目，固定评分规则，声明的信息边界。**
 
-**查看排行榜网站:** [[`网站链接`](https://oracleproto.com)]
+[GitHub](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) · [排行榜](https://oracleproto.com) · [论文](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03762) · [English](README.md)
 
-**查看我们的论文：** [[arXiv](http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03762)]
+<img src="assets/benchmark-overview.svg" alt="300 道题、528 分、三次重复、27 个配置" width="100%">
+</div>
 
-一份以 SQLite 打包的评估集，共 80 道经人工精校、围绕现实事件的预测题，resolution date 介于 2026-03-12 与 2026-04-14 之间；与 [GitHub 仓库](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) 同步发布。题目行与字节稳定的提示重建配方共存于单个 `forecast_eval_set_example.db` 文件，其中两张表分别是 `forecast_eval_set_example`（80 行题目）与 `dataset_metadata`（配方）。
+OracleProto 包含 **300 道已解析事件的预测题**，日期为 **2026-03-12 至 2026-09-21**，用于保留作评测的数据集。框架结合模型知识截止、时间掩码检索和独立检索内容审计。公开的 `test` 分割与完整 27 配置评测采用的固定试卷一致。
 
----
+## 数据集概览
 
-## 1. 数据集概览
+| 题型 | 题数 | 单题分值 | 满分 |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| 判断题 | 100 | 1 | 100 |
+| 具名二选一 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
+| 多选一 | 154 | 2 | 308 |
+| 多选多 | 37 | 3 | 111 |
+| **合计** | **300** | | **528** |
 
-| 字段                  | 取值                                                                  |
-| --------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- |
-| 发布日期              | `2026-04-29`                                                          |
-| 行数                  | 80                                                                    |
-| Splits                | `train` (80)；单一 split，定位为留出评估集                            |
-| Resolution-date 范围  | `2026-03-12` → `2026-04-14`                                           |
-| 题目类型              | `yes_no`、`binary_named`、`multiple_choice`                           |
-| Choice 类型           | `single`（恰一个正确字母）、`multi`（一个或多个正确字母）             |
-| 数据库文件            | `forecast_eval_set_example.db`（SQLite 3，约 52 KB）                  |
-| 文件中的表            | `forecast_eval_set_example`（80 行）、`dataset_metadata`（1 行）      |
-| 协议                  | MIT                                                                   |
-| 上游来源              | HuggingFace 预测题集（levels 1+2），原始 322 → 精校 80                |
+数据集只包含评测题目。源库保留固定的 80 题锚点并包含 220 道追加题，实验分析分别保存它们的来源配置分层。GitHub 仓库自带示例库是另一套 300 题题库，复现论文结果应使用本发布文件。
 
-### 类型分布
-
-| `question_type`     | `choice_type` | 行数   |
-| ------------------- | ------------- | ------ |
-| `yes_no`            | `single`      | 37     |
-| `binary_named`      | `single`      | 3      |
-| `multiple_choice`   | `single`      | 32     |
-| `multiple_choice`   | `multi`       | 8      |
-| **合计**            |               | **80** |
-
-`yes_no` 是二元 Yes/No 题；`binary_named` 在两个命名实体之间二选一，例如两支球队、两名参赛者或两方对阵；`multiple_choice` 至少含三个带字母标签的选项，其中一个或多个为正确答案；选项列表中出现 `None of the above` 时它同样是合法答案。每行存储完整的选项标签字面值；字母 `A` 映射到 `options[0]`，`B` 映射到 `options[1]`，依此类推（§3.4 涵盖 `Z` 之后的标签情形）。
-
----
-
-## 2. 文件
-
-```text
-OracleProto/
-├── forecast_eval_set_example.db   # SQLite 数据库文件（数据集本体；约 52 KB）
-├── forecast_eval_set_example.csv  # 行表的 CSV 导出；80 行 + 表头（约 18 KB）
-├── README.md                      # 本文件
-├── LICENSE                        # MIT
-└── .gitattributes                 # HF 标准二进制属性
-```
-
-数据集以单个 SQLite 文件（而非 Parquet 或 JSONL）发布，因为提示重建配方与逐行 provenance 与题目行共存于同一个文件（位于 `dataset_metadata.features_json`）。把行转换为 `datasets.Dataset` 的 loader 见 §6.3。
-
-CSV 是 `forecast_eval_set_example` 行表的导出，不含 `dataset_metadata`，因此���示模板仅能从 SQLite 文件中获取。当下游流水线只需这 80 行（用于 pandas、电子表格或 `grep` 过滤）并自行重建提示时，使用 CSV。`options` 列保留为 JSON 编码的数组字符串，按 RFC 4180 转义。
-
----
-
-## 3. 数据库 schema
-
-两张表：`forecast_eval_set_example` 存有 80 行题目；`dataset_metadata` 存有规范配方。文件名取自主表。
-
-### 3.1 表 `forecast_eval_set_example`（题目行）
-
-```sql
-CREATE TABLE forecast_eval_set_example (
-    id            TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
-    choice_type   TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (choice_type IN ('single','multi')),
-    question_type TEXT NOT NULL,    -- yes_no | binary_named | multiple_choice
-    event         TEXT NOT NULL,    -- 待预测事件
-    options       TEXT NOT NULL,    -- 选项标签的 JSON 数组
-    answer        TEXT NOT NULL,    -- 规范化的正确答案，编码为字母
-    end_time      TEXT NOT NULL     -- 'YYYY-MM-DD'
-);
-
-CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_choice_type   ON forecast_eval_set_example(choice_type);
-CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_question_type ON forecast_eval_set_example(question_type);
-CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_end_time      ON forecast_eval_set_example(end_time);
-```
-
-### 3.2 表 `dataset_metadata`（配方）
-
-单行表，其 `features_json` blob 中存有提示模板、四种 output_format、outcomes-block 规则、agent role 字符串，以及 curation provenance。完整配方在 §5 中展开。
-
-```sql
-CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
-    dataset_name      TEXT NOT NULL,
-    split_name        TEXT NOT NULL,
-    table_name        TEXT NOT NULL,
-    row_count         INTEGER NOT NULL,
-    imported_at_utc   TEXT NOT NULL,
-    features_json     TEXT NOT NULL
-);
-```
-
-### 3.3 列语义
-
-| 列              | 类型    | 描述                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              |
-| --------------- | ------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
-| `id`            | TEXT    | 来自上游 HuggingFace 预测题集的稳定 source-side question ID；主连接键。                                                                                                                                                                              |
-| `choice_type`   | TEXT    | 当且仅当一个字母正确时为 `'single'`，可为一个或多个字母时为 `'multi'`。由 `answer` 中的字母个数推导。在 §5.4 中决定使用单选还是多选模板。                                                                                                                  |
-| `question_type` | TEXT    | 取 `yes_no`、`binary_named`、`multiple_choice` 之一。决定渲染哪一种提示模板（§5）。                                                                                                                                                                |
-| `event`         | TEXT    | 待预测事件的自然语言描述；作者已编辑过，使时间锚定、单位与二元框架均明确。                                                                                                                                                                  |
-| `options`       | TEXT    | 选项标签的 JSON 数组。`yes_no` 固定为 `["Yes","No"]`。`binary_named` 是两个命名实体。`multiple_choice` 是选项标签的列表，字母由下标隐式确定（`A=options[0]`, `B=options[1]`, …）。                                                                      |
-| `answer`        | TEXT    | 规范化的正确答案，编码为字母。`yes_no` 与 `binary_named` 为 `'A'` 或 `'B'`。`multiple_choice` 为按选项顺序排列、以逗号分隔的字母列表，例如 `'A'` 或 `'A, B'`。                                                                                              |
-| `end_time`      | TEXT    | resolution date，格式 `YYYY-MM-DD`。该列只存日历日期；GMT+8 的时区读法由提示模板（§5.2）在渲染时附上。如需更细粒度的 admissibility，可把每条 resolution 视为覆盖整个日历日。                                                                                    |
-
-### 3.4 字母到下标的编码
-
-字母按 `index = ord(letter) - ord('A')` 映射到选项下标。超过 `Z` 之后（即 ≥27 个选项），标签沿以 `A` 起始的连续 ASCII 区间继续延伸：`[`、`\`、`]`、`^`、`_`、`` ` ``、`a`、`b`、…。参考 renderer 会用反引号包裹任何非 `A`–`Z` 标签，使其在 markdown 渲染下保持可读。80 行中没有超过 26 个选项的题；之所以仍写入文档，是因为 framework 的 parser 支持该编码。
-
----
-
-## 4. 行示例
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0",
-  "choice_type": "single",
-  "question_type": "yes_no",
-  "event": "Will the US PCE annual inflation be greater than 2.9% in January 2026?",
-  "options": ["Yes", "No"],
-  "answer": "B",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-13"
-}
-```
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d3",
-  "choice_type": "single",
-  "question_type": "binary_named",
-  "event": "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?",
-  "options": ["US", "Israel"],
-  "answer": "B",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-31"
-}
-```
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "6995b1073ea64b005b11f285",
-  "choice_type": "single",
-  "question_type": "multiple_choice",
-  "event": "Which men's basketball team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship tournament in the 2025-26 season?",
-  "options": ["Arizona", "Baylor", "Brigham Young University (BYU)",
-              "Houston", "Iowa State", "Kansas", "Kansas State"],
-  "answer": "A",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-14"
-}
-```
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "698f198bda7a8b006575444c",
-  "choice_type": "multi",
-  "question_type": "multiple_choice",
-  "event": "Which movies will win multiple Oscars? (2026)",
-  "options": ["One Battle After Another", "Sinners", "Frankenstein",
-              "KPop Demon Hunters", "F1", "Sentimental Value", "Hamnet",
-              "Marty Supreme", "The Secret Agent", "Avatar: Fire and Ash",
-              "Train Dreams", "Bugonia", "Blue Moon", "It Was Just An Accident"],
-  "answer": "A, B, C, D",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-15"
-}
-```
-
----
-
-## 5. 提示重建（规范配方）
-
-每一行通过 `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction` 中的配方渲染为一条 user message。该配方字节稳定，是 OracleProto 评估器的事实来源；自行重建提示的下游用户应严格遵循，以保证结果可比。
-
-### 5.1 静态片段
-
-```text
-agent_role: "You are an agent that can predict future events."
-
-guidance: "Do not use any other format. Do not refuse to make a prediction.
-           Do not say \"I cannot predict the future.\" You must make a clear
-           prediction based on the best data currently available, using the
-           box format specified above."
-```
-
-### 5.2 主模板
-
-```text
-{agent_role} The event to be predicted: "{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}"
-
-IMPORTANT: Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-{output_format}
-{guidance}
-```
-
-用户可见字符串中字面的 `(GMT+8)` 在渲染时给 resolution date 附上时区读法。
-
-### 5.3 `outcomes_block`
-
-`yes_no` 与 `binary_named`：为空，因为选项标签已嵌入 `output_format`。
-`multiple_choice`：以一个换行符开头，随后每行一个选项，形式为 `A. <label>`，例如 `\nA. Arizona\nB. Baylor\nC. Brigham Young University (BYU)\n…`。若派生字母落在 `A`–`Z` 之外，则用反引号包裹该标签。
-
-### 5.4 `output_format`（四选一，由 `question_type` × `choice_type` 决定）
-
-**`yes_no`:**
-```text
-Your task is to predict whether the event will occur based on your analysis.
-Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-\boxed{Yes} or \boxed{No}
-```
-
-**`binary_named`**（字面 `<options[0]>` 与 `<options[1]>` 替换为 `options` 中的两个命名实体）：
-```text
-Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.
-Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-\boxed{<options[0]>} or \boxed{<options[1]>}
-```
-
-**`multiple_choice` 且 `choice_type='single'`:**
-```text
-This is a SINGLE-ANSWER question: exactly ONE of the listed options is correct.
-Your prediction will be scored on strict equality with the unique correct letter; choosing the wrong letter, or selecting more than one letter, scores zero.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-the single correct letter inside the box, e.g. \boxed{A}.
-Do NOT list more than one letter, even if you believe two outcomes are tied — pick the one you find most likely.
-```
-
-**`multiple_choice` 且 `choice_type='multi'`:**
-```text
-This is a MULTI-SELECT question: ONE OR MORE of the listed options can be correct.
-Your prediction will be scored on strict equality with the FULL set of correct letters: any extra letter, any missing letter, or any wrong letter scores zero. You must include ALL correct options and NO incorrect options.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-listing all correct option(s) you have identified, separated by commas, within the box.
-For example: \boxed{A} for a single correct option, or \boxed{B, C} for multiple correct options.
-```
-
-### 5.5 答案解析
-
-参考 parser（[`forecast_eval/parser.py::parse_answer`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/parser.py)）应用如下规则：
-
-1. 取模型回复中**最后一个** `\boxed{...}` 子串；其余视为 reasoning 或 scratchpad，忽略。
-2. `yes_no`（不区分大小写）：`Yes` → `A`，`No` → `B`。其余记为 unparsed。
-3. `binary_named`（不区分大小写）：将盒内 payload 与 `options[0]` 或 `options[1]` 匹配。其余记为 unparsed。
-4. `multiple_choice`：按逗号与空白切分盒内 payload，校验每个 token 都是单字母，且每个字母都解析到合法的选项下标。越界字母或多字符 token 记为 unparsed。
-5. 与从 `answer` 解析出的规范字母集合做严格集合相等评分。缺失或 unparsed 的盒内答案记为 `parse_ok = 0`，不视为 parser 错误；记录该状态后运行继续，不会中断。
-
-复用 framework 的 parser 是跨实现获得 bit-identical 分数的最简单做法。
-
----
-
-## 6. 加载数据集
-
-### 6.1 使用原生 `sqlite3`（无额外依赖）
+## 加载 test 分割
 
 ```python
-import sqlite3
+from datasets import load_dataset
 import json
 
-conn = sqlite3.connect("forecast_eval_set_example.db")
-conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
-
-# 读取题目行。
-rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example").fetchall()
-print(f"loaded {len(rows)} rows")
-sample = dict(rows[0])
-sample["options"] = json.loads(sample["options"])  # JSON 解码选项列表
+ds = load_dataset("MaYiding/OracleProto", split="test")
+assert len(ds) == 300
+sample = dict(ds[0])
+sample["options"] = json.loads(sample["options"])
 print(sample)
-
-# 读取规范化的提示重建配方。
-meta_row = conn.execute("SELECT features_json FROM dataset_metadata").fetchone()
-meta = json.loads(meta_row["features_json"])
-prompt_template = meta["prompt_reconstruction"]["prompt_template"]
-print(prompt_template)
 ```
-
-### 6.2 使用 `huggingface_hub`
+数据预览和 `load_dataset` 使用明确声明为 `test` 的 CSV。为兼容 SQLite 和 CSV，`options` 保存为 JSON 字符串。包含提示词原文的完整数据库也可下载：
 
 ```python
 from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
-import sqlite3, json
-
-db_path = hf_hub_download(
-    repo_id="MaYiding/OracleProto",
-    filename="forecast_eval_set_example.db",
-    repo_type="dataset",
-)
-conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
-rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example").fetchall()
-```
-
-### 6.3 转换为 `datasets.Dataset`
-
-```python
-import sqlite3, json
-from datasets import Dataset
-
-conn = sqlite3.connect("forecast_eval_set_example.db")
-cur = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example")
-cols = [c[0] for c in cur.description]
-
-def _row(r):
-    d = dict(zip(cols, r))
-    d["options"] = json.loads(d["options"])         # list[str]
-    d["answer_letters"] = [
-        s.strip() for s in d["answer"].split(",") if s.strip()
-    ]                                               # list[str]
-    return d
-
-ds = Dataset.from_list([_row(r) for r in cur.fetchall()])
-print(ds)
-print(ds[0])
-```
-
-### 6.4 渲染提示（最小实现，遵从规范配方）
-
-```python
-def render_prompt(row, meta):
-    rcp = meta["prompt_reconstruction"]
-    options = row["options"]
-    qt, ct = row["question_type"], row["choice_type"]
-
-    if qt == "yes_no":
-        outcomes_block = ""
-        out_fmt = rcp["yes_no_output_format"]
-    elif qt == "binary_named":
-        outcomes_block = ""
-        out_fmt = (
-            rcp["binary_named_output_format"]
-            .replace("<options[0]>", options[0])
-            .replace("<options[1]>", options[1])
-        )
-    elif qt == "multiple_choice":
-        outcomes_block = "\n" + "\n".join(
-            f"{chr(ord('A') + i)}. {label}" for i, label in enumerate(options)
-        )
-        key = (
-            "multiple_choice_single_output_format" if ct == "single"
-            else "multiple_choice_multi_output_format"
-        )
-        out_fmt = rcp[key]
-    else:
-        raise ValueError(qt)
-
-    return rcp["prompt_template"].format(
-        agent_role=rcp["agent_role"],
-        event=row["event"],
-        end_time=row["end_time"],
-        outcomes_block=outcomes_block,
-        output_format=out_fmt,
-        guidance=rcp["guidance"],
-    )
-```
-
-完整参考 renderer（含 >26 选项的反引号规则与可选的 reflection / belief-elicitation 尾部）位于 [`forecast_eval/prompts.py`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py)；复用它即可获得 byte-identical 提示。
-
-### 6.5 使用预生成的 CSV（标准库 `csv`，不含提示模板）
-
-```python
-import csv, json
+import sqlite3
 
-with open("forecast_eval_set_example.csv", encoding="utf-8", newline="") as f:
-    rows = [
-        {**r, "options": json.loads(r["options"])}
-        for r in csv.DictReader(f)
-    ]
-print(f"loaded {len(rows)} rows; first event: {rows[0]['event']!r}")
+path = hf_hub_download("MaYiding/OracleProto",
+    "forecast_eval_set_example.db", repo_type="dataset")
+with sqlite3.connect(f"file:{path}?mode=ro", uri=True) as conn:
+    rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM test_cases").fetchall()
+    assert len(rows) == 300
 ```
+## 评分准则
 
-CSV 路径完全绕过 `dataset_metadata`。要把行与提示模板配对，要么按 §5 手工渲染，要么切换回 §6.1 的 SQLite 路径。
-
----
-
-## 7. 推荐评估协议
-
-将本数据集与 OracleProto 评估 harness 配套使用，后者在朴素的「提示+评分」循环之上叠加信息边界纪律。五条具体建议：
-
-1. **为每个模型声明 knowledge cutoff $\kappa_M$。** 题目 $i$ 对模型 $M$ 而言 admissible 的条件是 $\kappa_M \le \chi_i < \tau_i$，其中 $\chi_i$ 是题目的 prediction cutoff，$\tau_i$ 是其 resolution date。Inadmissible 题目在上游过滤，不计入模型错误。未声明 cutoff 的模型无法与已声明的模型公平比较。
+**Score 是已得分数占 528 分满分的百分比。** 判断题和具名二选一答案精确正确得 1 分，多选一得 2 分。多选多得分为 **3 × 2TP / (2TP + FP + FN)**，错选和漏选都会扣减得分，答案集合完全正确才能得满 3 分。
 
-2. **对任何 retrieval 或 browsing 工具做时间掩蔽。** 当 harness 允许模型发起 web 搜索时，将搜索侧 `end_date` 锁定到 $\chi_i + \delta$ 并采用保守的 offset；OracleProto 默认 $\delta = -1$ 天。该屏障 (L2) 背后的机制记录在 framework 的 DESIGN 与 FRAME 文档中。
+每道题先对三次作答的得分取平均，再相加并除以 528、乘以 100。无效答案和模型拒绝计零分，保留在分母中。缺失样本或基础设施错误会使正式 Score 不可用。正确率、重复答案一致性和成本是辅助诊断，依赖正确答案选择的 best-of-three 不能当作可部署的作答策略。
 
-3. **运行独立的 retrieval-content 审计员。** 每条召回片段交由独立 LLM 审计员判断是否泄露 resolution。这是 framework 威胁模型中的 L3 屏障。
+[发布清单](dataset_manifest.json)记录评分契约、文件校验和与 2,000 次按题型分层的题目 bootstrap 设置。[完整分数](results/score_summary.csv)包含全部 27 个配置，[题型分数](results/score_by_type.csv)覆盖四类题。Score 使用 0–100 尺度，CSV 中正确率和一致性使用 0–1。成本字段按公开费率重算预测模型推理费用，再将三次重复总额除以三，不含搜索、过滤模型费用和账单总额。
 
-4. **禁用 provider-native browsing。** OracleProto 在三层上拒收以 `:online` 等 hosted-browsing 变体结尾的 model slug：config 校验、on-the-wire client 与 detector client。这是 L4 屏障，也是任何一次计费 LLM 调用离开进程前必须通过的最终检查。
+## 复现信息边界
 
-5. **以字母集合上的严格集合相等评分**，参 §5.5。当模型按 framework 的 belief-elicitation 协议额外输出 `<belief>{ ... }</belief>` JSON 块时，可选启用概率 calibration 指标（Brier、NLL、ECE、Murphy 分解）；schema 见 [`forecast_eval/prompts.py::BELIEF_PROTOCOL`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py)。
+使用 [OracleProto 框架](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto)，设置 `SOURCE_TABLE=test_cases`、`PROMPT_TEMPLATE_STYLE=shared`、三次重复、每个样本最多六步 ReAct 和四次搜索、每次搜索最多五条结果。声明每个模型的 cutoff，保留路由、思考参数、提示词哈希和过滤配置。供应商默认、显式 effort 和 ON/OFF 开关分别作为独立配置。
 
-未启用 OracleProto harness 时，应将所得数字视为预测能力的上界：任何能浏览开放 web、或训练截止越过题目 `end_time` 的模型都可能记忆了答案。数据集使得 admissibility 检查成为可能，但它本身并不强制执行。
+SQLite 的 `dataset_metadata` 表包含 `features_json.prompt_reconstruction`，[prompt_reconstruction.json](prompt_reconstruction.json)导出同一份内容。其中严格答案指令保持采集时原文，多选多 F1 部分分由上述评分契约另外定义。使用框架的共用模板渲染器即可复现原始提示词。
 
----
+解析时间只有日期精度，提示词按 GMT+8 解读。日期 cutoff 不能证明检索时事件结果尚未公开。解释真实预测能力时，需要保留检索证据并核查结果发布时间。
 
-## 8. Provenance 与 curation
+## 泄漏审计
 
-* **来源。** 上游 HuggingFace 预测题集，限制在 *levels 1+2*（上游难度带中较容易的两档）。从原始集合采集到 322 道候选题。
-* **Curation 流水线（5 pass）。**
-  1. Source-side 坏行剔除与列扁平化。
-  2. `end_time` / 答案编码 / 选项标签规范化：`end_time` 归一为 `YYYY-MM-DD` 日历日期；`Yes/No` 映射为 `A/B`；选项标签去除残余 markdown。
-  3. 322 → 200 → 100 → 80 的下采样，并伴有 placeholder 移除、去重与歧义审计。
-  4. 终轮 HIGH+MEDIUM 歧义修复：重写 4 行，使时间锚定、单位与二元框架均明确。
-  5. 对一道 S&P 500 multi-select 真值集做 CRITICAL 修复，使其满足选项阶梯隐含的单调阈值逻辑。
-* **验证。** 全部 80 条 ground truth 通过 parser 往返做端到端验证（rendered prompt 经 parse 后再编码回规范字母集合）。最终计数：剩余 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium 歧义问题。
+最终作者提供的审计采用 **GPT 6.1 Sol 核验过滤后 10,000 条结果、标注 137 条泄漏的结论，即 1.37%**。人工核验的 137 条正例均泄漏，抽查的 1,000 条负例均未泄漏。负例核验属于抽样，不能据此确定整体召回率。该审计针对检索内容，而非模型训练数据。
 
----
+<details>
+<summary>文件、字段与来源</summary>
 
-## 9. 用途与局限
+| 文件 | 内容 |
+| --- | --- |
+| `forecast_eval_set_example.db` | `test_cases` 中的 300 道题及 `dataset_metadata` |
+| `forecast_eval_set_example.csv` | 相同七列和 300 行，供数据预览使用 |
+| `prompt_reconstruction.json` | 原始共用提示词 |
+| `dataset_manifest.json` | 题数、校验和与评测契约 |
+| `results/` | 完整配置和题型的聚合结果 |
 
-### 9.1 适用场景
+| 字段 | 含义 |
+| --- | --- |
+| `id` | 稳定题目 ID |
+| `choice_type` | `single` 或 `multi` |
+| `question_type` | `yes_no`、`binary_named` 或 `multiple_choice` |
+| `event` | 待预测事件 |
+| `options` | JSON 编码选项数组，A 对应索引 0，B 对应索引 1 |
+| `answer` | 正确选项字母或逗号分隔的字母集合 |
+| `end_time` | `YYYY-MM-DD` 格式的解析日期 |
 
-* **LLM 与 LLM 智能体的预测基准**，特别是结合参数化知识与时间掩蔽 web retrieval 的工具型智能体。
-* **预测 harness 的复现性试验台。** `dataset_metadata` 表使每条提示字节稳定；与 OracleProto framework 配套使用时，可得到一个运行单元，其评分工件在配置匹配时 bit-identical。
-* **校准与 proper-scoring 研究。** 80 行规模足够小，使逐题分析（信念演化、来源归因、calibration 图）仍在可处理范围内。
+题目源于 [Futurex-Past](https://huggingface.co/datasets/futurex-ai/Futurex-Past)，采用闭集选项及规范化的字母集合答案。原 80 道锚点题目的字段和正确答案保持一致。数据只涵盖已解析的闭集事件，不能代表所有领域或预测期限。模型 cutoff 是操作层声明，不能视为已独立核实的训练语料边界。
 
-### 9.2 不适用场景
+</details>
 
-* **长时程预测。** 所有 resolution 落在一个月窗口（2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14）；该集合不代表跨季度或跨年度预测。
-* **开放生成。** 每题都有封闭答案集，因此并非生成基准。
-  
----
+## 引用与联系
 
-## 10. License
-
-按 **MIT License** 发布（见 `LICENSE`）。上游题目源自公开 HuggingFace 预测集；本版本中的 curation 工作、schema、提示重建配方与答案编码均为本项目的贡献。
-
----
-
-## 11. 联系与合作
-
-如有代码使用、数据集构建、复现问题等，欢迎直接联系项目开发者：
-- **马一丁**：[yidingma@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yidingma@bupt.edu.cn)
-- **阮承沄**：[ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn)
-
-如需联合研究、数据与评测基准共建、论文合作等，请联系课题负责人：
-- **黄凯博**（通讯作者）：[huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn)
-- **杨忠良**（通讯作者）：[yangzl@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yangzl@bupt.edu.cn)
-
----
-
-## 12. 论文
-
-查看我们的论文：[arXiv](http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03762)
-
----
-## 13. 引用
-
-如果您在研究中使用了本项目，请引用我们的论文：
-
-```
+```bibtex
 @article{OracleProto,
   title={OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking},
   author={Yiding Ma, Chengyun Ruan, Kaibo Huang, Zhongliang Yang, Linna Zhou},
@@ -455,4 +104,9 @@ CSV 路径完全绕过 `dataset_metadata`。要把行与提示模板配对，要
 }
 ```
 
----
+- **Yiding Ma**: [yidingma@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yidingma@bupt.edu.cn)
+- **Chengyun Ruan**: [ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn)
+- **Kaibo Huang**: [huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn)
+- **Zhongliang Yang**: [yangzl@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yangzl@bupt.edu.cn)
+
+依照 [MIT 协议](LICENSE)发布。

README.md

@@ -9,467 +9,115 @@ tags:
 - forecasting
 - benchmark
 - llm-evaluation
-- reasoning
 - temporal-reasoning
 - contamination-control
-- leakage-control
-- prediction
-- agent
 size_categories:
 - n<1K
-pretty_name: OracleProto Forecasting Eval Set
+pretty_name: OracleProto 300-question Forecasting Benchmark
+configs:
+- config_name: default
+  data_files:
+  - split: test
+    path: forecast_eval_set_example.csv
 ---
+<div align="center">
+<img src="assets/OracleProto_Logo_Horizontal.svg" alt="OracleProto" width="360">
 
-# OracleProto: Forecasting Evaluation Set
+# OracleProto Forecasting Benchmark
 
-**Chinese doc:** [[`中文文档`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/README-ZH.md)]
+**300 real-world questions. A fixed score. A declared information boundary.**
 
-**GitHub repo:** [[`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto)]
+[GitHub](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) · [Leaderboard](https://oracleproto.com) · [Paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03762) · [中文](README-ZH.md)
 
-**Visit Our Leaderboards:** [[`Website`](https://oracleproto.com)]
+<img src="assets/benchmark-overview.svg" alt="300 questions, 528 points, three repetitions, 27 configurations" width="100%">
+</div>
 
-**View Our Paper:** [[arXiv](http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03762)]
+OracleProto is a held-out forecasting benchmark of **300 resolved events**, dated **2026-03-12 to 2026-09-21**. It combines model knowledge cutoffs, time-masked retrieval and a separate retrieval-content auditor. The released `test` split matches the fixed question set used by the complete 27-configuration evaluation.
 
-A SQLite-packaged evaluation set of 80 hand-curated forecasting questions on real-world events, with resolution dates between 2026-03-12 and 2026-04-14, released alongside the [GitHub Repo](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto). Both the rows and the byte-stable prompt-reconstruction recipe are packaged in a single file, `forecast_eval_set_example.db`, which exposes two tables: `forecast_eval_set_example` (the 80 rows) and `dataset_metadata` (the recipe).
+## Dataset at a glance
 
----
-
-## 1. Dataset at a glance
-
-| Field                  | Value                                                                  |
-| ---------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
-| Release date           | `2026-04-29`                                                           |
-| Rows                   | 80                                                                     |
-| Splits                 | `train` (80); single split, intended as a held-out evaluation set      |
-| Resolution-date range  | `2026-03-12` → `2026-04-14`                                            |
-| Question types         | `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice`                            |
-| Choice types           | `single` (one correct letter), `multi` (one or more correct letters)   |
-| Database file          | `forecast_eval_set_example.db` (SQLite 3, ~52 KB)                      |
-| Tables in the file     | `forecast_eval_set_example` (80 rows), `dataset_metadata` (1 row)      |
-| License                | MIT                                                                    |
-| Upstream source        | HuggingFace forecasting questions (levels 1+2), 322 raw → 80 curated   |
-
-### Type distribution
-
-| `question_type`     | `choice_type` | Rows   |
-| ------------------- | ------------- | ------ |
-| `yes_no`            | `single`      | 37     |
-| `binary_named`      | `single`      | 3      |
-| `multiple_choice`   | `single`      | 32     |
-| `multiple_choice`   | `multi`       | 8      |
-| **Total**           |               | **80** |
-
-`yes_no` is binary Yes/No. `binary_named` is a binary choice between two named entities such as two teams, two contestants, or two competing parties. `multiple_choice` has at least three labelled options, one or more of which are correct; "None of the above" is a valid answer when it appears in the option list. Each row stores the exact option labels: letter `A` maps to `options[0]`, `B` to `options[1]`, and so on (§3.4 covers labels beyond `Z`).
-
----
-
-## 2. Files
-
-```text
-OracleProto/
-├── forecast_eval_set_example.db   # SQLite database file (the dataset; ~52 KB)
-├── forecast_eval_set_example.csv  # CSV export of the rows table; 80 rows + header (~18 KB)
-├── README.md                      # this file
-├── LICENSE                        # MIT
-└── .gitattributes                 # standard HF binary attributes
-```
-
-The dataset is published as a single SQLite file, not as Parquet or JSONL, because the prompt-reconstruction recipe and per-row provenance share the same file as the rows (in `dataset_metadata.features_json`). A loader that converts the rows to a `datasets.Dataset` is shown in §6.3.
-
-The CSV is a row-table export of `forecast_eval_set_example`; it does not include `dataset_metadata`, so the prompt template is reachable only via the SQLite file. Use the CSV when a downstream pipeline needs only the 80 rows (pandas, a spreadsheet, or a `grep` filter) and reconstructs prompts on its own. The `options` column is preserved as a JSON-encoded array string, escaped per RFC 4180.
-
----
-
-## 3. Database schema
-
-Two tables: `forecast_eval_set_example` holds the 80 rows; `dataset_metadata` holds the canonical recipe. The file takes its name from the primary table.
-
-### 3.1 Table `forecast_eval_set_example` (the rows)
-
-```sql
-CREATE TABLE forecast_eval_set_example (
-    id            TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
-    choice_type   TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (choice_type IN ('single','multi')),
-    question_type TEXT NOT NULL,    -- yes_no | binary_named | multiple_choice
-    event         TEXT NOT NULL,    -- the event being predicted
-    options       TEXT NOT NULL,    -- JSON array of option labels
-    answer        TEXT NOT NULL,    -- canonical correct answer as letter(s)
-    end_time      TEXT NOT NULL     -- 'YYYY-MM-DD'
-);
-
-CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_choice_type   ON forecast_eval_set_example(choice_type);
-CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_question_type ON forecast_eval_set_example(question_type);
-CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_end_time      ON forecast_eval_set_example(end_time);
-```
-
-### 3.2 Table `dataset_metadata` (the recipe)
-
-A one-row table whose `features_json` blob stores the prompt template, the four output formats, the outcomes-block rule, the agent role, and curation provenance. The full recipe is documented in §5.
-
-```sql
-CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
-    dataset_name      TEXT NOT NULL,
-    split_name        TEXT NOT NULL,
-    table_name        TEXT NOT NULL,
-    row_count         INTEGER NOT NULL,
-    imported_at_utc   TEXT NOT NULL,
-    features_json     TEXT NOT NULL
-);
-```
-
-### 3.3 Column semantics
-
-| Column          | Type    | Description                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       |
-| --------------- | ------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
-| `id`            | TEXT    | Stable source-side question ID inherited from the upstream HuggingFace forecasting set; primary join key.                                                                                                                                          |
-| `choice_type`   | TEXT    | `'single'` if exactly one letter is correct, `'multi'` if one or more letters are correct. Derived from the number of letters in `answer`. Selects between the single-answer and multi-select templates in §5.4.                                    |
-| `question_type` | TEXT    | One of `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice`. Selects which prompt template is rendered (§5).                                                                                                                                                |
-| `event`         | TEXT    | Natural-language description of the event being predicted, author-edited to make the time anchor, the units, and the binary framing explicit.                                                                                                       |
-| `options`       | TEXT    | JSON array of option labels. For `yes_no` it is fixed to `["Yes","No"]`. For `binary_named` it is the two named entities. For `multiple_choice` it is the list of choice labels, where each letter is given by its position (`A=options[0]`, `B=options[1]`, …). |
-| `answer`        | TEXT    | Canonical correct answer encoded as letters. For `yes_no` and `binary_named` it is `'A'` or `'B'`. For `multiple_choice` it is a comma-separated letter list in option order, e.g. `'A'` or `'A, B'`.                                                |
-| `end_time`      | TEXT    | Resolution date in `YYYY-MM-DD`. The column stores a calendar date only; the prompt template (§5.2) attaches the GMT+8 reading at render time. If finer-grained admissibility is needed, treat each resolution as covering the whole calendar day.    |
-
-### 3.4 Letter-to-index encoding
-
-Letters map to option indices via `index = ord(letter) - ord('A')`. Beyond `Z` (≥27 options) the labels continue along the contiguous ASCII range that starts at `A`: `[`, `\`, `]`, `^`, `_`, `` ` ``, `a`, `b`, …. The reference renderer wraps any non-`A`–`Z` label in backticks to keep the label intact under Markdown rendering. None of the 80 rows exceed 26 options; the encoding is documented because the framework's parser supports it.
-
----
-
-## 4. Sample rows
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0",
-  "choice_type": "single",
-  "question_type": "yes_no",
-  "event": "Will the US PCE annual inflation be greater than 2.9% in January 2026?",
-  "options": ["Yes", "No"],
-  "answer": "B",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-13"
-}
-```
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d3",
-  "choice_type": "single",
-  "question_type": "binary_named",
-  "event": "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?",
-  "options": ["US", "Israel"],
-  "answer": "B",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-31"
-}
-```
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "6995b1073ea64b005b11f285",
-  "choice_type": "single",
-  "question_type": "multiple_choice",
-  "event": "Which men's basketball team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship tournament in the 2025-26 season?",
-  "options": ["Arizona", "Baylor", "Brigham Young University (BYU)",
-              "Houston", "Iowa State", "Kansas", "Kansas State"],
-  "answer": "A",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-14"
-}
-```
-
-```json
-{
-  "id": "698f198bda7a8b006575444c",
-  "choice_type": "multi",
-  "question_type": "multiple_choice",
-  "event": "Which movies will win multiple Oscars? (2026)",
-  "options": ["One Battle After Another", "Sinners", "Frankenstein",
-              "KPop Demon Hunters", "F1", "Sentimental Value", "Hamnet",
-              "Marty Supreme", "The Secret Agent", "Avatar: Fire and Ash",
-              "Train Dreams", "Bugonia", "Blue Moon", "It Was Just An Accident"],
-  "answer": "A, B, C, D",
-  "end_time": "2026-03-15"
-}
-```
-
----
-
-## 5. Prompt reconstruction (canonical recipe)
-
-Every row is rendered into a single user message via the recipe stored in `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction`. The recipe is byte-stable and is the source of truth for the OracleProto evaluator; downstream users who reconstruct prompts themselves should follow it exactly to keep results comparable.
-
-### 5.1 Static fragments
-
-```text
-agent_role: "You are an agent that can predict future events."
-
-guidance: "Do not use any other format. Do not refuse to make a prediction.
-           Do not say \"I cannot predict the future.\" You must make a clear
-           prediction based on the best data currently available, using the
-           box format specified above."
-```
-
-### 5.2 Master template
-
-```text
-{agent_role} The event to be predicted: "{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}"
-
-IMPORTANT: Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-{output_format}
-{guidance}
-```
-
-The literal `(GMT+8)` inside the user-visible string is what attaches a timezone to the resolution date at render time.
-
-### 5.3 `outcomes_block`
-
-For `yes_no` and `binary_named`: empty, since the option labels are embedded directly in `output_format`.
-For `multiple_choice`: a leading newline followed by one line per option in `A. <label>` form, for example `\nA. Arizona\nB. Baylor\nC. Brigham Young University (BYU)\n…`. Labels whose derived letter falls outside `A`–`Z` are wrapped in backticks.
-
-### 5.4 `output_format` (one of four, chosen by `question_type` × `choice_type`)
-
-**`yes_no`:**
-```text
-Your task is to predict whether the event will occur based on your analysis.
-Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-\boxed{Yes} or \boxed{No}
-```
-
-**`binary_named`** (the literals `<options[0]>` and `<options[1]>` are replaced by the two named entities from `options`):
-```text
-Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.
-Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-\boxed{<options[0]>} or \boxed{<options[1]>}
-```
+| Question type | Rows | Points per question | Available points |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Yes/no | 100 | 1 | 100 |
+| Named binary | 9 | 1 | 9 |
+| Single-answer multiple choice | 154 | 2 | 308 |
+| Multi-answer multiple choice | 37 | 3 | 111 |
+| **Total** | **300** | | **528** |
 
-**`multiple_choice` with `choice_type='single'`:**
-```text
-This is a SINGLE-ANSWER question: exactly ONE of the listed options is correct.
-Your prediction will be scored on strict equality with the unique correct letter; choosing the wrong letter, or selecting more than one letter, scores zero.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-the single correct letter inside the box, e.g. \boxed{A}.
-Do NOT list more than one letter, even if you believe two outcomes are tied — pick the one you find most likely.
-```
-
-**`multiple_choice` with `choice_type='multi'`:**
-```text
-This is a MULTI-SELECT question: ONE OR MORE of the listed options can be correct.
-Your prediction will be scored on strict equality with the FULL set of correct letters: any extra letter, any missing letter, or any wrong letter scores zero. You must include ALL correct options and NO incorrect options.
-Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
-listing all correct option(s) you have identified, separated by commas, within the box.
-For example: \boxed{A} for a single correct option, or \boxed{B, C} for multiple correct options.
-```
-
-### 5.5 Answer parsing
-
-The reference parser ([`forecast_eval/parser.py::parse_answer`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/parser.py)) applies these rules:
-
-1. Take the **last** `\boxed{...}` substring in the model's reply; everything else is reasoning or scratchpad and is ignored.
-2. For `yes_no` (case-insensitive): `Yes` → `A`, `No` → `B`. Anything else is unparsed.
-3. For `binary_named` (case-insensitive): match the boxed payload against `options[0]` or `options[1]`. Anything else is unparsed.
-4. For `multiple_choice`: split the boxed payload on commas and whitespace, validate that each token is a single letter, and check that each letter resolves to a valid option index. Out-of-range letters or multi-character tokens are unparsed.
-5. Score by strict set equality against the canonical letter set parsed from `answer`. A missing or unparsed boxed answer is recorded as `parse_ok = 0` rather than raised as an error, and the run continues without halting.
-
-Reusing the framework's parser is the simplest way to get bit-identical scores across implementations.
-
----
-
-## 6. Loading the dataset
+The dataset contains evaluation questions only. The source retains the fixed 80-question anchor and 220 additional questions; their source configurations remain separate strata in the experimental analysis. The repository's bundled example is a different 300-question set. Use this release for the published paper results.
 
-### 6.1 With raw `sqlite3` (no extra dependencies)
+## Load the test split
 
 ```python
-import sqlite3
+from datasets import load_dataset
 import json
 
-conn = sqlite3.connect("forecast_eval_set_example.db")
-conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
-
-# Read the rows.
-rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example").fetchall()
-print(f"loaded {len(rows)} rows")
-sample = dict(rows[0])
-sample["options"] = json.loads(sample["options"])  # JSON-decode option list
+ds = load_dataset("MaYiding/OracleProto", split="test")
+assert len(ds) == 300
+sample = dict(ds[0])
+sample["options"] = json.loads(sample["options"])
 print(sample)
-
-# Read the canonical prompt-reconstruction recipe.
-meta_row = conn.execute("SELECT features_json FROM dataset_metadata").fetchone()
-meta = json.loads(meta_row["features_json"])
-prompt_template = meta["prompt_reconstruction"]["prompt_template"]
-print(prompt_template)
 ```
-
-### 6.2 With `huggingface_hub`
+The dataset viewer and `load_dataset` use the CSV explicitly assigned to the `test` split. `options` remains a JSON string for SQLite/CSV compatibility. The full database, including the stored prompt recipe, is also available:
 
 ```python
 from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
-import sqlite3, json
-
-db_path = hf_hub_download(
-    repo_id="MaYiding/OracleProto",
-    filename="forecast_eval_set_example.db",
-    repo_type="dataset",
-)
-conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
-rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example").fetchall()
-```
-
-### 6.3 Convert to a `datasets.Dataset`
-
-```python
-import sqlite3, json
-from datasets import Dataset
-
-conn = sqlite3.connect("forecast_eval_set_example.db")
-cur = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example")
-cols = [c[0] for c in cur.description]
-
-def _row(r):
-    d = dict(zip(cols, r))
-    d["options"] = json.loads(d["options"])         # list[str]
-    d["answer_letters"] = [
-        s.strip() for s in d["answer"].split(",") if s.strip()
-    ]                                               # list[str]
-    return d
-
-ds = Dataset.from_list([_row(r) for r in cur.fetchall()])
-print(ds)
-print(ds[0])
-```
-
-### 6.4 Render a prompt (minimal, faithful to the canonical recipe)
-
-```python
-def render_prompt(row, meta):
-    rcp = meta["prompt_reconstruction"]
-    options = row["options"]
-    qt, ct = row["question_type"], row["choice_type"]
-
-    if qt == "yes_no":
-        outcomes_block = ""
-        out_fmt = rcp["yes_no_output_format"]
-    elif qt == "binary_named":
-        outcomes_block = ""
-        out_fmt = (
-            rcp["binary_named_output_format"]
-            .replace("<options[0]>", options[0])
-            .replace("<options[1]>", options[1])
-        )
-    elif qt == "multiple_choice":
-        outcomes_block = "\n" + "\n".join(
-            f"{chr(ord('A') + i)}. {label}" for i, label in enumerate(options)
-        )
-        key = (
-            "multiple_choice_single_output_format" if ct == "single"
-            else "multiple_choice_multi_output_format"
-        )
-        out_fmt = rcp[key]
-    else:
-        raise ValueError(qt)
-
-    return rcp["prompt_template"].format(
-        agent_role=rcp["agent_role"],
-        event=row["event"],
-        end_time=row["end_time"],
-        outcomes_block=outcomes_block,
-        output_format=out_fmt,
-        guidance=rcp["guidance"],
-    )
-```
-
-The full reference renderer, which extends the example above with the >26-option backtick rule and an optional reflection / belief-elicitation tail, is implemented in [`forecast_eval/prompts.py`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py); reusing it produces byte-identical prompts.
-
-### 6.5 With the CSV export (stdlib `csv`, no prompt template)
-
-```python
-import csv, json
+import sqlite3
 
-with open("forecast_eval_set_example.csv", encoding="utf-8", newline="") as f:
-    rows = [
-        {**r, "options": json.loads(r["options"])}
-        for r in csv.DictReader(f)
-    ]
-print(f"loaded {len(rows)} rows; first event: {rows[0]['event']!r}")
+path = hf_hub_download("MaYiding/OracleProto",
+    "forecast_eval_set_example.db", repo_type="dataset")
+with sqlite3.connect(f"file:{path}?mode=ro", uri=True) as conn:
+    rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM test_cases").fetchall()
+    assert len(rows) == 300
 ```
+## Scoring
 
-The CSV path skips `dataset_metadata` entirely. To pair the rows with the prompt template, either follow §5 by hand or switch back to the SQLite path in §6.1.
-
----
-
-## 7. Recommended evaluation protocol
-
-Pair the dataset with the OracleProto evaluation harness, which layers information-boundary discipline on top of a plain prompt-and-score loop. Five concrete recommendations:
-
-1. **Declare a knowledge cutoff $\kappa_M$ for every model.** A question is admissible for model $M$ only when $\kappa_M \le \chi_i < \tau_i$, where $\chi_i$ is the per-question prediction cutoff and $\tau_i$ is its resolution date. Inadmissible questions are filtered upstream rather than counted as model errors. A model with no declared cutoff cannot be fairly compared against a model that has one.
-
-2. **Time-mask any retrieval or browsing tool.** If the harness lets the model issue web searches, pin the search-side `end_date` to $\chi_i + \delta$ with a conservative offset; OracleProto defaults to $\delta = -1$ day. The mechanism behind this barrier (L2) is documented in the framework's DESIGN and FRAME notes.
-
-3. **Run an independent retrieval-content auditor.** Each retrieved snippet is passed to a separate LLM auditor that decides whether the snippet leaks the resolution. This is the L3 barrier in the framework's threat model.
-
-4. **Forbid provider-native browsing.** OracleProto refuses model slugs ending in `:online` and similar hosted-browsing variants on three layers: config validation, on-the-wire client, and detector client. This is the L4 barrier, the final check that any billable LLM call must clear before it leaves the process.
-
-5. **Score with strict set equality on letter sets**, per §5.5. Optional probability-calibration metrics (Brier, NLL, ECE, Murphy decomposition) are supported when the model emits an additional `<belief>{ ... }</belief>` JSON block following the framework's belief-elicitation protocol; the schema is documented in [`forecast_eval/prompts.py::BELIEF_PROTOCOL`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py).
-
-Without the OracleProto harness in place, treat the resulting numbers as upper bounds on forecasting ability: any model that can browse the open web, or that was trained past a question's `end_time`, may have memorised the answer. The dataset makes the admissibility check possible; it does not enforce it on its own.
-
----
-
-## 8. Provenance and curation
-
-* **Source.** Upstream HuggingFace forecasting questions, restricted to *levels 1+2* (the easier two of the upstream difficulty bands). The raw set was harvested as 322 candidate questions.
-* **Curation pipeline (5 passes).**
-  1. Source-side broken-row removal and column flattening.
-  2. `end_time` / answer-encoding / option-label normalization: `end_time` reduced to a `YYYY-MM-DD` calendar date; `Yes/No` mapped to `A/B`; option labels stripped of stray markdown.
-  3. Down-sampling 322 → 200 → 100 → 80 with placeholder removal, deduplication, and an ambiguity audit.
-  4. Final HIGH+MEDIUM ambiguity remediation: 4 rows reworded to make their time anchor, units, or binary framing explicit.
-  5. CRITICAL fix on one S&P 500 multi-select truth set so it satisfies the monotonic-threshold logic implied by the option ladder.
-* **Verification.** All 80 ground-truths verified end-to-end via parser round-trip (the rendered prompt is parsed and re-encoded back to the canonical letter set). Final tally: 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remaining.
+**Score is the percentage of the 528 available points earned.** Yes/no and named binary questions earn 1 point for an exact answer, and single-answer multiple choice earns 2. Multi-answer multiple choice earns **3 × 2TP / (2TP + FP + FN)**. Extra and missed selections both reduce credit; an exact set earns all 3 points.
 
----
-
-## 9. Intended uses and limitations
-
-### 9.1 Intended uses
-
-* **Forecasting benchmark for LLMs and LLM agents**, particularly tool-using agents that combine parametric knowledge with time-masked web retrieval.
-* **Reproducibility testbed for forecasting harnesses.** The `dataset_metadata` table makes every prompt byte-stable; pairing it with the OracleProto framework yields a run unit whose scoring artefacts are bit-identical when the configuration matches.
-* **Calibration and proper-scoring research.** The 80-row size is small enough that per-question analysis (belief evolution, source attribution, calibration plots) stays tractable.
+Average each question's earned points over three repetitions, sum those averages and divide by 528, then multiply by 100. Invalid answers and model refusals earn zero without reducing the denominator. Missing samples or infrastructure errors make official Score unavailable. Accuracy, repeated-answer agreement and cost are supporting diagnostics. Oracle best-of-three results are not a deployable answer-selection method.
 
-### 9.2 Out-of-scope uses
+The [manifest](dataset_manifest.json) records the scoring contract, file hashes and 2,000-replicate stratified question bootstrap settings. [Complete scores](results/score_summary.csv) include all 27 configurations; [type-level scores](results/score_by_type.csv) expose the four question types. Scores use a 0–100 scale, while accuracy and agreement CSV fields use 0–1. Cost fields reprice forecasting inference at public tariffs and divide three-repetition totals by three; search, detector usage and invoice totals are excluded.
 
-* **Long-horizon forecasting.** All resolutions land in a one-month window (2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14); the set does not represent multi-quarter or multi-year forecasting.
-* **Open-ended generation.** Every question has a closed answer set, so this is not a generation benchmark.
+## Replay the information boundary
 
----
-
-## 10. License
+Use the [OracleProto harness](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto), with `SOURCE_TABLE=test_cases`, `PROMPT_TEMPLATE_STYLE=shared`, three repetitions, at most six ReAct steps, four searches per sample and five results per search. Declare each model's cutoff and preserve the route, reasoning parameters, prompt hash and detector settings. Provider defaults, explicit effort and ON/OFF switches are distinct configurations.
 
-Released under the **MIT License** (see `LICENSE`). The upstream questions originate from a public HuggingFace forecasting set; the curation work, schema, prompt-reconstruction recipe, and answer encodings in this release are the contribution of this project.
-
----
+The SQLite table `dataset_metadata` contains `features_json.prompt_reconstruction`; [prompt_reconstruction.json](prompt_reconstruction.json) exports the same recipe. Its strict-answer instructions are preserved exactly as collected. The scorer's multi-answer F1 partial-credit rule is specified separately above. The recipe can be reproduced by the harness's shared-template renderer without changing stored prompt text.
 
-## 11. Contact
+Resolution dates have day precision and are read as GMT+8 in the prompt. A calendar cutoff is not proof that an event's outcome was unavailable at retrieval time. Retain raw retrieval evidence and check result publication times when interpreting prospective forecasting.
 
-For questions about code usage, dataset construction, or reproducing results, please reach out to the developers directly:
-- **Yiding Ma**: [yidingma@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yidingma@bupt.edu.cn)
-- **Chengyun Ruan**: [ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn)
+## Leakage audit
 
-For joint research, dataset and benchmark co-development, or paper collaboration, please contact the principal investigators:
-- **Kaibo Huang** (corresponding author): [huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn)
-- **Zhongliang Yang** (corresponding author): [yangzl@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yangzl@bupt.edu.cn)
+The final author-reported audit uses **GPT 6.1 Sol's 137 leakage labels out of 10,000 reviewed filtered results: 1.37%**. Human reviewers checked all 137 labelled positives and confirmed all leaked. They also checked 1,000 labelled negatives and found no leakage. The negative check is a sample, so it does not establish overall detector recall. This is an audit of retrieved content, not of model training data.
 
----
+<details>
+<summary>Files, schema and provenance</summary>
 
-## 12. Paper
+| File | Contents |
+| --- | --- |
+| `forecast_eval_set_example.db` | 300 rows in `test_cases`, plus `dataset_metadata` |
+| `forecast_eval_set_example.csv` | The same seven columns and 300 rows, used by the viewer |
+| `prompt_reconstruction.json` | Stored shared prompt recipe |
+| `dataset_manifest.json` | Counts, checksums and evaluation contract |
+| `results/` | Complete-configuration and type-level aggregate results |
 
-View Our Paper: [arXiv](http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03762)
+| Field | Meaning |
+| --- | --- |
+| `id` | Stable question ID |
+| `choice_type` | `single` or `multi` |
+| `question_type` | `yes_no`, `binary_named` or `multiple_choice` |
+| `event` | Event to forecast |
+| `options` | JSON-encoded option array; A is index 0, B is index 1 |
+| `answer` | Gold letter or comma-separated letter set |
+| `end_time` | Resolution date in `YYYY-MM-DD` |
 
----
+The questions derive from [Futurex-Past](https://huggingface.co/datasets/futurex-ai/Futurex-Past), with closed answer options and normalized letter-set answers. All 80 anchor rows retain their existing fields and gold answers. The release is limited to resolved, closed-choice events and does not represent all domains or forecasting horizons. Declared model cutoffs are operational assumptions, not independently verified training-corpus boundaries.
 
-## 13. Citation
+</details>
 
-If you use this project in your research, please cite our paper:
+## Citation and contact
 
-```
+```bibtex
 @article{OracleProto,
   title={OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking},
   author={Yiding Ma, Chengyun Ruan, Kaibo Huang, Zhongliang Yang, Linna Zhou},
@@ -478,4 +126,9 @@ If you use this project in your research, please cite our paper:
 }
 ```
 
----
+- **Yiding Ma**: [yidingma@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yidingma@bupt.edu.cn)
+- **Chengyun Ruan**: [ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:ruanchengyun815@bupt.edu.cn)
+- **Kaibo Huang**: [huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:huangkaibo@bupt.edu.cn)
+- **Zhongliang Yang**: [yangzl@bupt.edu.cn](mailto:yangzl@bupt.edu.cn)
+
+Released under the [MIT license](LICENSE).

dataset_manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+{
+  "release_date": "2026-10-06",
+  "dataset": "MaYiding/OracleProto",
+  "split": "test",
+  "rows": 300,
+  "full_points": 528,
+  "sampling_n": 3,
+  "complete_configurations": 27,
+  "resolved_date_range": [
+    "2026-03-12",
+    "2026-09-21"
+  ],
+  "type_counts": {
+    "yes_no": 100,
+    "binary_named": 9,
+    "mc_single": 154,
+    "mc_multi": 37
+  },
+  "source_database_sha256": "67243aeadbab783202d0c715c5dd01cef265ab41bf729248ff0239d6bcb06c97",
+  "csv_sha256": "b5fa948d8c29044823dbc531065390543715b451918da1efb87d90f110c1c6b0",
+  "prompt_recipe_sha256": "7096361043a30bc18d7ed25701ec01caba12483d7dac564754f82896218e94b8",
+  "scoring_contract": {
+    "aggregation": "100*sum(points*mean_trial_credit)/sum(points)",
+    "bootstrap": "paired_question_clusters_stratified_by_question_type",
+    "bootstrap_iterations": 2000,
+    "bootstrap_seed": 20261001,
+    "ci_level": 0.95,
+    "content_policy": "zero_credit_in_denominator",
+    "cutoff": "exclude_question",
+    "diagnostics": "question_mean_then_population_mean",
+    "headline_population": "intersection_of_declared_admissible_questions",
+    "invalid_answer": "zero_credit_in_denominator",
+    "missing_or_infrastructure_error": "incomplete_no_official_score",
+    "multi_credit": "2TP/(2TP+FP+FN)",
+    "name": "points-f1",
+    "pass_at_k": "mean(1-comb(K-c,k)/comb(K,k))_exact_match",
+    "points": {
+      "binary_named": 1,
+      "mc_multi": 3,
+      "mc_single": 2,
+      "yes_no": 1
+    },
+    "single_credit": "exact_set_equality",
+    "vote": "strict_majority_of_complete_answer_sets_invalid_votes_abstain"
+  },
+  "cost_basis": "Public standard online tariffs repriced per request, sum of three repetitions divided by three; forecasting-model inference only. Excludes search, leakage-detector usage, missing usage, and invoice totals.",
+  "leakage_audit": {
+    "source": "author-reported final audit",
+    "auditor": "GPT 6.1 Sol",
+    "reviewed": 10000,
+    "positive_labels": 137,
+    "rate_percent": 1.37,
+    "human_verified_positives": 137,
+    "human_confirmed_leaks": 137,
+    "human_verified_negative_labels": 1000,
+    "human_found_leaks_in_negative_sample": 0
+  },
+  "results_source": "Frozen complete 300-question panel"
+}

forecast_eval_set_example.csv

@@ -1,81 +1,301 @@
 id,choice_type,question_type,event,options,answer,end_time
-6999a58717d430006670a388,single,multiple_choice,"Brazil's monthly inflation rate in February 2026","[""0.45 or more"", ""Between 0.25 and 0.45"", ""More than zero, less than 0.25"", ""Zero or less""]",A,2026-03-12
-699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0,single,yes_no,"Will the US PCE annual inflation be greater than 2.9% in January 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-13
-6995b1073ea64b005b11f285,single,multiple_choice,"Which men's basketball team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship tournament in the 2025-26 season?","[""Arizona"", ""Baylor"", ""Brigham Young University (BYU)"", ""Houston"", ""Iowa State"", ""Kansas"", ""Kansas State""]",A,2026-03-14
-698f198bda7a8b006575444c,multi,multiple_choice,"Which movies will win multiple Oscars? (2026)","[""One Battle After Another"", ""Sinners"", ""Frankenstein"", ""KPop Demon Hunters"", ""F1"", ""Sentimental Value"", ""Hamnet"", ""Marty Supreme"", ""The Secret Agent"", ""Avatar: Fire and Ash"", ""Train Dreams"", ""Bugonia"", ""Blue Moon"", ""It Was Just An Accident""]","A, B, C, D",2026-03-15
-698f198bda7a8b0065754455,single,multiple_choice,"Best Lead Actress winner? (2026 Oscars)","[""Jessie Buckley - Hamnet"", ""Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"", ""Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue"", ""Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value"", ""Emma Stone - Bugonia""]",A,2026-03-15
-698f198bda7a8b006575445f,single,multiple_choice,"Best International Feature winner? (2026 Oscars)","[""Sentimental Value"", ""The Secret Agent"", ""It Was Just an Accident"", ""Sirat"", ""The Voice of Hind Rajab""]",A,2026-03-15
+6999a58717d430006670a388,single,multiple_choice,Brazil's monthly inflation rate in February 2026,"[""0.45 or more"", ""Between 0.25 and 0.45"", ""More than zero, less than 0.25"", ""Zero or less""]",A,2026-03-12
+699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0,single,yes_no,Will the US PCE annual inflation be greater than 2.9% in January 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-13
+6995b1073ea64b005b11f285,single,multiple_choice,Which men's basketball team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship tournament in the 2025-26 season?,"[""Arizona"", ""Baylor"", ""Brigham Young University (BYU)"", ""Houston"", ""Iowa State"", ""Kansas"", ""Kansas State""]",A,2026-03-14
+698f198bda7a8b006575444c,multi,multiple_choice,Which movies will win multiple Oscars? (2026),"[""One Battle After Another"", ""Sinners"", ""Frankenstein"", ""KPop Demon Hunters"", ""F1"", ""Sentimental Value"", ""Hamnet"", ""Marty Supreme"", ""The Secret Agent"", ""Avatar: Fire and Ash"", ""Train Dreams"", ""Bugonia"", ""Blue Moon"", ""It Was Just An Accident""]","A, B, C, D",2026-03-15
+698f198bda7a8b0065754455,single,multiple_choice,Best Lead Actress winner? (2026 Oscars),"[""Jessie Buckley - Hamnet"", ""Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"", ""Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue"", ""Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value"", ""Emma Stone - Bugonia""]",A,2026-03-15
+698f198bda7a8b006575445f,single,multiple_choice,Best International Feature winner? (2026 Oscars),"[""Sentimental Value"", ""The Secret Agent"", ""It Was Just an Accident"", ""Sirat"", ""The Voice of Hind Rajab""]",A,2026-03-15
 699d9a1a098cca008728b6cf,single,yes_no,"Mexico City (CDMX) above ""Exercise increased caution"" trav advisory by mid march 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-16
-699d9a1a098cca008728b6df,single,yes_no,"Will Teyana Taylor win best supporting actress at OSCAR 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-16
+699d9a1a098cca008728b6df,single,yes_no,Will Teyana Taylor win best supporting actress at OSCAR 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-16
 69a5830b7554ef0068e464be,single,yes_no,"Will foreign airlines resume commercial passenger flights to Aviv (TLV) by March 15, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-16
-69aebd8a93e1240067e5c02c,single,yes_no,"Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and 15th March 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-16
-69906e76ffd613006910b816,single,multiple_choice,"What will the Reserve Bank of Australia decide for its cash rate target at the March 2026 Meeting?","[""Hold (no change)"", ""Hike"", ""Cut""]",C,2026-03-17
-6998540873bcba006869e614,single,multiple_choice,"Who will win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells ATP 1000)?","[""Carlos Alcaraz (1)"", ""Jannik Sinner (2)"", ""Novak Djokovic (3)"", ""Alexander Zverev (4)"", ""Alex de Minaur (6)"", ""Taylor Fritz (7)"", ""Félix Auger-Aliassime (8)""]",A,2026-03-17
-69a5830b7554ef0068e464af,single,yes_no,"Will Marty Supreme win any Oscars in 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-17
+69aebd8a93e1240067e5c02c,single,yes_no,Will there be a ceasefire announced between US/Israel and Iran between 11th and 15th March 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-16
+69906e76ffd613006910b816,single,multiple_choice,What will the Reserve Bank of Australia decide for its cash rate target at the March 2026 Meeting?,"[""Hold (no change)"", ""Hike"", ""Cut""]",C,2026-03-17
+6998540873bcba006869e614,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells ATP 1000)?,"[""Carlos Alcaraz (1)"", ""Jannik Sinner (2)"", ""Novak Djokovic (3)"", ""Alexander Zverev (4)"", ""Alex de Minaur (6)"", ""Taylor Fritz (7)"", ""Félix Auger-Aliassime (8)""]",A,2026-03-17
+69a5830b7554ef0068e464af,single,yes_no,Will Marty Supreme win any Oscars in 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-17
 69a977a47e9d43005df0d703,single,yes_no,"Will NVIDIA stock be higher on March 16, 2026 than on March 09, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-17
 698c7689b06cd2005cde5b30,single,multiple_choice,"How did the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) change the SELIC target rate at the monetary policy meeting on March 17‑18, 2026?","[""Lower by 0.5% or more"", ""Lower by 0.25%"", ""Maintain the same rate"", ""Rise by 0.25% or more""]",B,2026-03-19
+6995b1073ea64b005b11f29e,single,multiple_choice,"At close of business on 19 March 2026, will the most recently announced European Central Bank (ECB) ""Deposit facility"" interest rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 5 February 2026?","[""Lower"", ""Same"", ""Higher""]",B,2026-03-19
 6995b1073ea64b005b11f2a0,single,multiple_choice,"At close of business on 19 March 2026, will the most recently announced Bank of England (BoE) ""Bank Rate"" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 5 February 2026?","[""Lower"", ""Same"", ""Higher""]",B,2026-03-19
-6995b1073ea64b005b11f2a1,single,yes_no,"Will the president of the United States and Nicolás Maduro meet in person before 19 March 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-19
+6995b1073ea64b005b11f2a1,single,yes_no,Will the president of the United States and Nicolás Maduro meet in person before 19 March 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-19
 69a830e529c5bb005eeeb10d,multi,multiple_choice,"During the UEFA Champions League Knockout Round Playoffs (Mar 10th–Mar 18th, 2026), which of the following prop outcomes will occur at least once across all matches? (Select all that apply.)","[""Goal in the first 5 minutes of any game"", ""At least one penalty shootout"", ""1+ Own Goals scored"", ""2 (or more) come-from-behind wins in second leg of the playoff"", ""Stoppage time winner"", ""From 2 goals down to level during a match"", ""3 (or more) Players get red cards (in any fashion)"", ""5 (or more) draws"", ""2 (or more) 0-0 draws""]","D, E",2026-03-19
 6995b1073ea64b005b11f2a2,single,multiple_choice,"What will be the closing price of lumber on 20 March 2026, according to Trading Economics?","[""Less than $450"", ""At least $450, but less than $500"", ""At least $500, but less than $550"", ""At least $550, but less than $600"", ""At least $600, but less than $650"", ""At least $650, but less than $700"", ""At least $700, but less than $750""]",E,2026-03-20
-69b5552c6ccead0066d5b474,multi,multiple_choice,"2026 Men's March Madness Sweet 16 Predictions!","[""At least one 1 seed will NOT advance to the Sweet 16"", ""7 or more conferences will have teams advancing to the Sweet 16"", ""2+ teams from each of the \""Power 5\"" advance to the Sweet 16"", ""ZERO West Coast Conference teams advance to the Sweet 16"", ""All 2 Seeds advance to the Sweet 16"", ""5 or more Big Ten teams will advance to the Sweet 16""]","A, D, E, F",2026-03-20
-699702870408ab00683a025e,single,multiple_choice,"How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?","[""0 - 99 deaths"", ""100 - 499 deaths"", ""500 - 999 deaths"", ""1,000 - 4,999 deaths"", ""5,000 - 9,999 deaths"", ""10,000+ deaths""]",E,2026-03-21
+69b5552c6ccead0066d5b474,multi,multiple_choice,2026 Men's March Madness Sweet 16 Predictions!,"[""At least one 1 seed will NOT advance to the Sweet 16"", ""7 or more conferences will have teams advancing to the Sweet 16"", ""2+ teams from each of the \""Power 5\"" advance to the Sweet 16"", ""ZERO West Coast Conference teams advance to the Sweet 16"", ""All 2 Seeds advance to the Sweet 16"", ""5 or more Big Ten teams will advance to the Sweet 16""]","A, D, E, F",2026-03-20
+699702870408ab00683a025e,single,multiple_choice,How many people will die as a part of the 2025-26 Iranian protests before March 20th (up to 10k)?,"[""0 - 99 deaths"", ""100 - 499 deaths"", ""500 - 999 deaths"", ""1,000 - 4,999 deaths"", ""5,000 - 9,999 deaths"", ""10,000+ deaths""]",E,2026-03-21
 69b2b226782d0900685d5fb4,single,yes_no,"Will Assassin's Creed: Black Flag Resynced (the remake) be officially announced by March 20th, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-21
 6998540873bcba006869e617,single,multiple_choice,"How will Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders vote at the Mar 20, 2026 special meeting regarding a sale of the company?","[""Netflix Acquisition"", ""Paramount Global Acquisition"", ""Not acquired""]",B,2026-03-22
-6998540873bcba006869e61a,multi,multiple_choice,"Which North American teams will qualify for the 2026 ICPC World Finals?","[""University of Waterloo"", ""Massachusetts Institute of Technology"", ""Carnegie Mellon University"", ""Stanford University"", ""University of Maryland"", ""Harvard University"", ""University of Texas at Austin"", ""University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"", ""University of Chicago"", ""Arizona State University"", ""Georgia Institute of Technology"", ""University of Central Florida"", ""University of British Columbia"", ""University of Alberta""]","A, B, C, D, E, H, I, J, K, L, M, N",2026-03-22
-6998540873bcba006869e61b,single,multiple_choice,"Who will win the 2026 Six Nations Triple Crown?","[""England"", ""Ireland"", ""Scotland"", ""Wales"", ""None""]",B,2026-03-22
-699c4887d1d3cf005c1e48cc,single,multiple_choice,"Six Nations Rugby Champion 2026","[""England"", ""France"", ""Ireland"", ""Scotland"", ""Italy"", ""Wales""]",B,2026-03-22
-69a03d1781109300686005e4,single,yes_no,"Will MAA release any of the 2026 USA(J)MO Cutoffs?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-22
-69a5830b7554ef0068e464d8,single,multiple_choice,"2026 AFC Women's Asian Cup Champion","[""Japan"", ""Australia"", ""South Korea"", ""China"", ""North Korea""]",A,2026-03-22
-6999a58817d430006670a390,single,yes_no,"Will Aonishiki Arata be promoted to yokozuna after the Haru Basho 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-23
-6999a58817d430006670a398,single,multiple_choice,"Which region will the 2026 First Stand Tournament champion come from?","[""LCK"", ""LPL"", ""Any other region (LEC, LCS, LCP or CBLOL)""]",B,2026-03-23
-69ad6c53a6622a00642b8ab1,single,multiple_choice,"Which team wins the 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC)?","[""Japan"", ""USA"", ""Venezuela"", ""Puerto Rico""]",C,2026-03-23
-69b403b749eb3f005a923d0e,single,yes_no,"Italy judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-03-23
-69b403b749eb3f005a923d0d,single,yes_no,"Will the 2026 Triton Jeju $100K Main Event exceed 250 entries?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-24
+6998540873bcba006869e61a,multi,multiple_choice,Which North American teams will qualify for the 2026 ICPC World Finals?,"[""University of Waterloo"", ""Massachusetts Institute of Technology"", ""Carnegie Mellon University"", ""Stanford University"", ""University of Maryland"", ""Harvard University"", ""University of Texas at Austin"", ""University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"", ""University of Chicago"", ""Arizona State University"", ""Georgia Institute of Technology"", ""University of Central Florida"", ""University of British Columbia"", ""University of Alberta""]","A, B, C, D, E, H, I, J, K, L, M, N",2026-03-22
+6998540873bcba006869e61b,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the 2026 Six Nations Triple Crown?,"[""England"", ""Ireland"", ""Scotland"", ""Wales"", ""None""]",B,2026-03-22
+699c4887d1d3cf005c1e48cc,single,multiple_choice,Six Nations Rugby Champion 2026,"[""England"", ""France"", ""Ireland"", ""Scotland"", ""Italy"", ""Wales""]",B,2026-03-22
+69a03d1781109300686005e4,single,yes_no,Will MAA release any of the 2026 USA(J)MO Cutoffs?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-22
+69a5830b7554ef0068e464d8,single,multiple_choice,2026 AFC Women's Asian Cup Champion,"[""Japan"", ""Australia"", ""South Korea"", ""China"", ""North Korea""]",A,2026-03-22
+6999a58817d430006670a390,single,yes_no,Will Aonishiki Arata be promoted to yokozuna after the Haru Basho 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-23
+6999a58817d430006670a398,single,multiple_choice,Which region will the 2026 First Stand Tournament champion come from?,"[""LCK"", ""LPL"", ""Any other region (LEC, LCS, LCP or CBLOL)""]",B,2026-03-23
+69ad6c53a6622a00642b8ab1,single,multiple_choice,Which team wins the 2026 World Baseball Classic (WBC)?,"[""Japan"", ""USA"", ""Venezuela"", ""Puerto Rico""]",C,2026-03-23
+69b403b749eb3f005a923d0e,single,yes_no,Italy judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-03-23
+69b403b749eb3f005a923d0d,single,yes_no,Will the 2026 Triton Jeju $100K Main Event exceed 250 entries?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-24
+699c4887d1d3cf005c1e48ad,single,multiple_choice,Banxico interest rate decision in March,"[""Lower the rate"", ""Maintain the same rate"", ""Increase the rate""]",B,2026-03-26
 69bd3e2828f858005eb9389e,single,yes_no,"Will America send troops to Iran by March 28, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-28
-69b7f816d596fb005d43a316,multi,multiple_choice,"Who will finish top 3 in the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix?","[""George Russell"", ""Kimi Antonelli"", ""Charles Leclerc"", ""Lewis Hamilton"", ""Lando Norris"", ""Oscar Piastri"", ""Max Verstappen"", ""Alex Albon"", ""Arvid Lindblad"", ""Franco colapinto"", ""Valtteri Bottas"", ""Carlos Sainz"", ""Pierre Gasly"", ""Oliver Bearman""]","A, B, C",2026-03-29
-69b00f0e54b7b400676ea557,single,multiple_choice,"During which round will the first seed be eliminated in the 2026 March Madness?","[""Round of 64"", ""Round of 32"", ""Sweet 16"", ""Elite Eight"", ""Final Four""]",A,2026-03-30
-69ba9b2453c457006694bc63,single,multiple_choice,"Who will win the 2026 Miami Open (Miami WTA 1000)?","[""Aryna Sabalenka (1)"", ""Victoria Mboko (10)"", ""Amanda Anisimova (6)"", ""Coco Gauff (4)"", ""Jessica Pegula (5)"", ""Elena Rybakina (3)"", ""Iga Swiatek (2)""]",A,2026-03-30
+69b7f816d596fb005d43a316,multi,multiple_choice,Who will finish top 3 in the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix?,"[""George Russell"", ""Kimi Antonelli"", ""Charles Leclerc"", ""Lewis Hamilton"", ""Lando Norris"", ""Oscar Piastri"", ""Max Verstappen"", ""Alex Albon"", ""Arvid Lindblad"", ""Franco colapinto"", ""Valtteri Bottas"", ""Carlos Sainz"", ""Pierre Gasly"", ""Oliver Bearman""]","A, B, C",2026-03-29
+69ad6c0aa6622a00642b8a9a,single,multiple_choice,Athletico PR vs. Botafogo,"[""Athletico PR"", ""Tie"", ""Botafogo""]",A,2026-03-30
+69b00f0e54b7b400676ea557,single,multiple_choice,During which round will the first seed be eliminated in the 2026 March Madness?,"[""Round of 64"", ""Round of 32"", ""Sweet 16"", ""Elite Eight"", ""Final Four""]",A,2026-03-30
+69ba9b2453c457006694bc63,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the 2026 Miami Open (Miami WTA 1000)?,"[""Aryna Sabalenka (1)"", ""Victoria Mboko (10)"", ""Amanda Anisimova (6)"", ""Coco Gauff (4)"", ""Jessica Pegula (5)"", ""Elena Rybakina (3)"", ""Iga Swiatek (2)""]",A,2026-03-30
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf25f,single,yes_no,"Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf26e,single,yes_no,"Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-03-31
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf27c,single,yes_no,"Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf27e,single,yes_no,"Mamdani removes Jessica Tisch as NYC Police Commissioner by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf298,single,yes_no,"Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2a8,single,yes_no,"50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
-69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d3,single,binary_named,"Will US or Israel strike Iran first?","[""US"", ""Israel""]",B,2026-03-31
-69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d8,single,multiple_choice,"What range will the percentage change in the S&P 500 over Q1 2026 fall into?","[""less than 0%"", ""3% to 4%"", ""8% to 10%"", ""at least 10%"", ""0% to 2%"", ""2% to 3%"", ""5% to 6%"", ""4% to 5%"", ""6% to 8%""]",A,2026-03-31
-69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d9,multi,multiple_choice,"S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1 2026","[""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1""]","B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J",2026-03-31
+69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d3,single,binary_named,Will US or Israel strike Iran first?,"[""US"", ""Israel""]",B,2026-03-31
+69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d8,single,multiple_choice,What range will the percentage change in the S&P 500 over Q1 2026 fall into?,"[""less than 0%"", ""3% to 4%"", ""8% to 10%"", ""at least 10%"", ""0% to 2%"", ""2% to 3%"", ""5% to 6%"", ""4% to 5%"", ""6% to 8%""]",A,2026-03-31
+69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d9,multi,multiple_choice,S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1 2026,"[""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 3% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 2% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index gain at least 1% on any day in Q1"", ""the S&P 500 Index lose at least 1% on any day in Q1""]","B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J",2026-03-31
 69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2e8,multi,multiple_choice,"On the final trading day of Q1 2026, which of the following price-level thresholds will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above? (Select all that apply.)","[""above 5250"", ""above 6000"", ""above 4750"", ""above 5750"", ""above 7000"", ""above 5000"", ""above 4500"", ""above 5500"", ""above 6500""]","C, F, G",2026-03-31
 69a4319df2cb3b006875e9c3,single,yes_no,"Will the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) sustain battle damage caused directly by Iranian military forces before 31 march, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
-69b7f816d596fb005d43a317,single,multiple_choice,"F1: Who will win the 2026 Aramco Japanese Grand Prix?","[""George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)"", ""Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)"", ""Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)"", ""Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)"", ""Oliver Bearman (TGR Haas)"", ""Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)"", ""Pierre Gasly (BTW Alpine)""]",A,2026-03-31
+69b7f816d596fb005d43a317,single,multiple_choice,F1: Who will win the 2026 Aramco Japanese Grand Prix?,"[""George Russell (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)"", ""Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes-AMG Petronas)"", ""Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari HP)"", ""Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari HP)"", ""Oliver Bearman (TGR Haas)"", ""Lando Norris (McLaren Mastercard)"", ""Pierre Gasly (BTW Alpine)""]",A,2026-03-31
 69b7fb68d596fb005d43a329,single,yes_no,"Another US bank failure by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
 69ba9e5f53c457006694bc8d,single,yes_no,"Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-03-31
-6964e98652029b005bc009ae,single,yes_no,"Will Israel be excluded from Eurovision 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-02
+6964e98652029b005bc009ae,single,yes_no,Will Israel be excluded from Eurovision 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-02
+69a6d48ee78a390068a18725,single,yes_no,"Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 10% on April 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-02
 69a6d48ee78a390068a18727,single,yes_no,"Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 5% on April 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-02
 69a6d48ee78a390068a18736,single,yes_no,"Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.5 billion USD on April 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-02
 69a6d48ee78a390068a18746,single,yes_no,"Will the TTM APT price in Rotterdam exceed 1800 USD/mtu April 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-02
 69a6d48ee78a390068a18749,single,yes_no,"Will the lithium carbonate spot price exceed $25,000 per metric ton on April 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-02
 69a6d48ee78a390068a1874e,single,yes_no,"Will the TTM tantalum concentrate import price exceed 155 USD/lb on April 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-02
 69a6d48ee78a390068a18760,single,multiple_choice,"Where will Claude rank by installs for March 2026, among AI chatbots?","[""1st"", ""2nd"", ""3rd"", ""4th"", ""5th"", ""6th"", ""7th"", ""8th""]",D,2026-04-02
-69b5552c6ccead0066d5b480,single,multiple_choice,"Outcome of Comey Indictment","[""Dismissed without a trial"", ""Dismissed or directed verdict during the trial"", ""Hung Jury"", ""Guilty Verdict"", ""Not Guilty Verdict""]",A,2026-04-02
-69ba9b2453c457006694bc73,multi,multiple_choice,"Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from UEFA?","[""Italy"", ""Slovakia"", ""Northern Ireland"", ""Sweden"", ""Kosovo"", ""Denmark"", ""Ukraine"", ""Turkey"", ""Poland"", ""Romania"", ""Bosnia and Herzegovina""]","D, I, K",2026-04-02
-69a830e529c5bb005eeeb104,single,yes_no,"Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-03
+69b5552c6ccead0066d5b480,single,multiple_choice,Outcome of Comey Indictment,"[""Dismissed without a trial"", ""Dismissed or directed verdict during the trial"", ""Hung Jury"", ""Guilty Verdict"", ""Not Guilty Verdict""]",A,2026-04-02
+69ba9b2453c457006694bc73,multi,multiple_choice,Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from UEFA?,"[""Italy"", ""Slovakia"", ""Northern Ireland"", ""Sweden"", ""Kosovo"", ""Denmark"", ""Ukraine"", ""Turkey"", ""Poland"", ""Romania"", ""Bosnia and Herzegovina""]","D, I, K",2026-04-02
+69a830e529c5bb005eeeb104,single,yes_no,Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-03
+69c527154b6f01005cae131a,single,yes_no,"Will Iran and the US announce a formal diplomatic agreement before August 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-03
 699c4887d1d3cf005c1e48b5,single,multiple_choice,"How many residents (e-residents, residents and limited residents) will Prospera have on April 5, 2026?","[""2275 residents or less"", ""2276-2475 residents"", ""2476-2675 residents"", ""2676-2875 residents"", ""2876 residents or more""]",C,2026-04-05
 69bd3e2828f858005eb938b3,single,binary_named,"At the 2026 Ronde van Vlaanderen (Men's), who will finish higher: Tadej Pogacar or Mathieu van der Poel?","[""Tadej Pogacar"", ""Mathieu van der Poel""]",A,2026-04-06
-69ba9b2453c457006694bc62,single,multiple_choice,"Who will be in sole first place after any round of the 2026 Candidates Tournament?","[""Fabiano Caruana"", ""Hikaru Nakamura"", ""Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa"", ""Wei Yi"", ""Anish Giri"", ""Javokhir Sindarov"", ""Andrey Esipenko"", ""Matthias Blübaum""]",F,2026-04-07
-69b012a654b7b400676ea55b,single,multiple_choice,"What will the Bank of Korea decide for its base rate at the April 2026 Meeting?","[""Hike"", ""Cut"", ""Hold (no change)""]",C,2026-04-10
+69ba9b2453c457006694bc62,single,multiple_choice,Who will be in sole first place after any round of the 2026 Candidates Tournament?,"[""Fabiano Caruana"", ""Hikaru Nakamura"", ""Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa"", ""Wei Yi"", ""Anish Giri"", ""Javokhir Sindarov"", ""Andrey Esipenko"", ""Matthias Blübaum""]",F,2026-04-07
+69b012a654b7b400676ea55b,single,multiple_choice,What will the Bank of Korea decide for its base rate at the April 2026 Meeting?,"[""Hike"", ""Cut"", ""Hold (no change)""]",C,2026-04-10
 69c2841b9bbfb400688c0c17,single,yes_no,"Will Hans Niemann win the 12 Game Showdown vs. Awonder Liang held from April 10 to 15, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-10
-6964e98652029b005bc009af,single,yes_no,"Will Neymar play at least one match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
-69b2b226782d0900685d5fc4,single,multiple_choice,"Who will be elected as the Federal Leader of South Africa's Democratic Alliance (DA) in 2026?","[""Geordin Hill-Lewis"", ""Solly Msimanga"", ""Chris Pappas"", ""Siviwe Gwarube"", ""Ashor Sarupen""]",A,2026-04-11
-69b7f816d596fb005d43a314,single,yes_no,"Will both Scottie Scheffler & Rory Mcllroy make the cut at the 2026 Masters tournament?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
+6964e98652029b005bc009af,single,yes_no,Will Neymar play at least one match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
+6964e98652029b005bc009b0,single,yes_no,Will Neymar be called up for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
+69b2b226782d0900685d5fc4,single,multiple_choice,Who will be elected as the Federal Leader of South Africa's Democratic Alliance (DA) in 2026?,"[""Geordin Hill-Lewis"", ""Solly Msimanga"", ""Chris Pappas"", ""Siviwe Gwarube"", ""Ashor Sarupen""]",A,2026-04-11
+69b7f816d596fb005d43a314,single,yes_no,Will both Scottie Scheffler & Rory Mcllroy make the cut at the 2026 Masters tournament?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
 69cbbeac64341d005ceae85d,single,yes_no,"Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on April 10, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-11
 69cd135684ea010067ba22d3,single,yes_no,"Will Trump attend UFC 327 on April 11, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
-6978b007edd409005eef0f9e,single,multiple_choice,"Who will be elected Prime Minister of Hungary in 2026?","[""Tisza (Péter Magyar)"", ""Fidesz-KDNP (Viktor Orbán)"", ""Democratic Coalition (Klára Dobrev)"", ""Our Homeland Movement (László Toroczkai)""]",A,2026-04-12
-69b2b593782d0900685d5fcc,single,multiple_choice,"NBA Atlantic Division Winner","[""the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division""]",A,2026-04-12
-69b403b749eb3f005a923d22,single,multiple_choice,"Who will win the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) leadership election in 2026?","[""Christine Fréchette"", ""Bernard Drainville"", ""Jean-François Simard""]",A,2026-04-12
-69b5552c6ccead0066d5b47a,single,multiple_choice,"What will be LeBron James' average points per game (PPG) the 2025-26 NBA Regular Season?","[""Less than 20.5 PPG"", ""20.5-21.9 PPG"", ""22.0-23.4 PPG"", ""23.5-24.9 PPG"", ""25.0 PPG or Higher""]",A,2026-04-13
-69be8f979ade34005c7c742c,single,multiple_choice,"How many seats will Tisza party win in 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?","[""0 - 79"", ""80 - 89"", ""90 - 99"", ""100 - 104"", ""105 - 109"", ""110 - 114"", ""115 - 119"", ""120 - 129"", ""130 - 139""]",I,2026-04-13
-69cd100f84ea010067ba229d,single,multiple_choice,"Who will win Paris-Roubaix (Men’s) 2026?","[""Tadej Pogacar"", ""Mathieu van der Poel"", ""Wout van Aert"", ""Mads Pedersen""]",A,2026-04-13
-69ce6197dcd4cd005c5bf064,single,yes_no,"Will the Los Angeles Lakers finish the 2025-26 regular season as the #3 seed or higher in the Western Conference?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-13
+6978b007edd409005eef0f9e,single,multiple_choice,Who will be elected Prime Minister of Hungary in 2026?,"[""Tisza (Péter Magyar)"", ""Fidesz-KDNP (Viktor Orbán)"", ""Democratic Coalition (Klára Dobrev)"", ""Our Homeland Movement (László Toroczkai)""]",A,2026-04-12
+69a2e0075692ef005cdbf23c,single,multiple_choice,Winner of Peru's presidential election,"[""Rafael López Aliaga (RP)"", ""Alfonso López-Chau (AN)"", ""Keiko Fujimori (FP)"", ""César Acuña (APP)"", ""Carlos Espá (SíCreo)"", ""Mario Vizcarra (PP)""]",C,2026-04-12
+69b2b593782d0900685d5fc6,multi,multiple_choice,2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?,"[""Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Netherlands qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Belgium qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Croatia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Uruguay qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Saudi Arabia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Australia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Oman qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""United Arab Emirates qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Austria qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Finland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Romania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Wales qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""DR Congo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Iraq qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Ireland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""New Caledonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Suriname qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""North Macedonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Northern Ireland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Slovakia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup"", ""Albania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup""]","B, C, D, E, F, G, H, J, L, Q, T, V, W, `",2026-04-12
+69b2b593782d0900685d5fcc,single,multiple_choice,NBA Atlantic Division Winner,"[""the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division"", ""the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division""]",A,2026-04-12
+69b403b749eb3f005a923d22,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) leadership election in 2026?,"[""Christine Fréchette"", ""Bernard Drainville"", ""Jean-François Simard""]",A,2026-04-12
+69b5552c6ccead0066d5b47a,single,multiple_choice,What will be LeBron James' average points per game (PPG) the 2025-26 NBA Regular Season?,"[""Less than 20.5 PPG"", ""20.5-21.9 PPG"", ""22.0-23.4 PPG"", ""23.5-24.9 PPG"", ""25.0 PPG or Higher""]",A,2026-04-13
+69be8f979ade34005c7c742c,single,multiple_choice,How many seats will Tisza party win in 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?,"[""0 - 79"", ""80 - 89"", ""90 - 99"", ""100 - 104"", ""105 - 109"", ""110 - 114"", ""115 - 119"", ""120 - 129"", ""130 - 139""]",I,2026-04-13
+69cd100f84ea010067ba229d,single,multiple_choice,Who will win Paris-Roubaix (Men’s) 2026?,"[""Tadej Pogacar"", ""Mathieu van der Poel"", ""Wout van Aert"", ""Mads Pedersen""]",A,2026-04-13
+69ce6197dcd4cd005c5bf064,single,yes_no,Will the Los Angeles Lakers finish the 2025-26 regular season as the #3 seed or higher in the Western Conference?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-13
+69b5552c6ccead0066d5b478,single,multiple_choice,Which party will win the University-Rosedale by-election?,"[""Liberal Party"", ""Conservative Party"", ""New Democratic Party"", ""Other party or independent candidate""]",A,2026-04-14
 69b7f816d596fb005d43a31f,single,binary_named,"What is the NBA East vs West regular season record as of April 14, 2026?","[""Eastern Conference"", ""Western Conference""]",B,2026-04-14
-6964e98652029b005bc009b0,single,yes_no,"Will Neymar be called up for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-11
+69a830e529c5bb005eeeb116,multi,multiple_choice,Which series will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2026?,"[""The Cemeteries of Amalo - Katherine Addison"", ""Dogs of War - Adrian Tchaikovsky"", ""Emily Wilde - Heather Fawcett"", ""October Daye - Seanan McGuire"", ""The Singing Hills Cycle - Nghi Vo"", ""Legends & Lattes - Travis Baldree"", ""The Hunger Games - Suzanne Collins"", ""Old Man's War - John Scalzi"", ""Rivers of London - Ben Aaronovitch"", ""The Midsolar Murders - Mur Lafferty"", ""Martin Hench - Cory Doctorow"", ""Legendborn - Tracy Deonn"", ""Vita Nostra - Marina & Sergey Dyachenko"", ""The Witcher - Andrzej Sapkowski""]","A, C, D, H",2026-04-16
+69b94994c9ab67005c7bdc70,multi,multiple_choice,What will be true about TFT set 17? [ADD ANSWERS],"[""At least 1 new artifact"", ""Prismatic summon trait"", ""11-piece trait"", ""6- or 7- cost unit"", ""Exactly 12 4-cost units"", ""Charms-like set mechanic"", ""Ziggs unit"", ""Pandora’s bench stays in this set as a gold augment"", ""Threat-like unit"", ""Guild/star guardian-like trait"", ""3-cost hero augment"", ""Unit reprint from set 16""]","A, B, C, D",2026-04-16
+69ba9b2453c457006694bc58,single,yes_no,Will Anthropic release a model with a higher version number 4.6 by April 15th?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-16
+69c527154b6f01005cae1314,single,yes_no,"Will the DHS partial shutdown end by April 15, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-16
+69ca6d09e1dfbe005d9412e6,single,yes_no,"Will whitehouse.gov publish a new post containing ""middle class"" before April 15, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-16
+69d2560b92520400680b171f,single,yes_no,"Will a tornado outbreak occur on either April 12, 13, 14 or 15 in the USA?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-16
+69b94ccac9ab67005c7bdc8a,single,multiple_choice,China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?,"[""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%"", ""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%"", ""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%"", ""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%"", ""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%"", ""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%"", ""China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%""]",D,2026-04-17
+69ba9b2453c457006694bc67,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the Apprentice 2026,"[""Karishma"", ""Levi"", ""Rothna"", ""Pascha"", ""Priyesh"", ""Rajan"", ""Harry"", ""Connor"", ""Kieran"", ""Lawrence"", ""Dan""]",A,2026-04-17
+69cd135684ea010067ba22cd,single,binary_named,Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner,"[""Sidemen FC"", ""Youtube Allstars""]",B,2026-04-18
+69d4f90949a1b20067eec451,single,yes_no,Will one of the top eight ranked snooker players win the World Championship 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-19
+69bd3e2828f858005eb938b8,single,binary_named,"Who will win EVW 23 armwrestling match, Brian Shaw or Leonidas Arkona?","[""Leonidas Arkona (Germany)"", ""Brian Shaw (USA)""]",B,2026-04-20
+69be8f979ade34005c7c7417,single,yes_no,Will Vijay's TVK party contest all 234 TN assembly seats?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-20
+6963980d5a6f9800684ed65f,single,yes_no,Will Maryland change its congressional voting map for the 2026 elections?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-21
+69c135baa180df005d04622d,multi,multiple_choice,Which teams will draft a QB in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Football draft?,"[""the Las Vegas Raiders draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the New York Jets draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Miami Dolphins draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Los Angeles Rams draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Cleveland Browns draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Pittsburgh Steelers draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the New Orleans Saints draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Seattle Seahawks draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the New York Giants draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Indianapolis Colts draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Arizona Cardinals draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft"", ""the Tennessee Titans draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft""]","A, D",2026-04-23
+69c135baa180df005d04622e,single,multiple_choice,South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?,"[""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0%"", ""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.5% and 0.9%"", ""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%"", ""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%"", ""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.4%"", ""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.4%"", ""South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%""]",D,2026-04-23
+69da3f12d5644600674fb476,single,multiple_choice,What will the House Ethics committee recommend as sanction for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick?,"[""Expulsion from the House"", ""Censure"", ""Reprimand"", ""Being stripped of committee assignments""]",A,2026-04-23
+69c3d5a5dca5a1006806e411,multi,multiple_choice,Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NFL Draft?,"[""Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana"", ""Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State"", ""David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech"", ""Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame"", ""Sonny Styles"", ""Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami"", ""Caleb Downs"", ""Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State"", ""Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami"", ""Spencer Fano"", ""Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU"", ""Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State"", ""Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama"", ""Makai Lemon, WR, USC""]","A, B, C, D, H",2026-04-24
+69d3a7a3e53ae80066abf5b3,single,yes_no,"Will COMEX Gold (June 2026) touch $5000.00 at any point before April 25, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-25
+69df85144d9ee5005d92472d,multi,multiple_choice,"On April 26th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?","[""x≥2"", ""x≥4"", ""x≥6"", ""x≥8"", ""x≥10"", ""x≥12"", ""x≥14""]","A, B",2026-04-27
+69ca71bce1dfbe005d941311,multi,multiple_choice,GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ by April 30?,"[""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.75 (LOW) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $4.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026"", ""the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 30, 2026""]","C, H",2026-04-30
+69cbbeac64341d005ceae852,single,yes_no,"Will Rystad's Gulf energy infrastructure repair estimate exceed 35 billion on April 30, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-04-30
+69cbbeac64341d005ceae861,single,yes_no,Bab el-Mandeb strait closed by April 30?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-30
+69de339aab5b1b0067f23c75,single,yes_no,Will a Iranian warship be destroyed in the ports blockade bef April 30th,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-04-30
+6964e98652029b005bc009b3,single,yes_no,"Will Ronaldo Caiado be confirmed as a presidential pre-candidate in Brazil by May 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-05-01
+69a4319df2cb3b006875e9c5,single,yes_no,Is Saint Sommers dead after Loki and Luffys attack in Chapter 1175?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-01
+69cd100f84ea010067ba22a7,single,multiple_choice,How many successful SpaceX launches in April 2026 UTC,"[""12 or less"", ""13"", ""14"", ""15"", ""16"", ""17"", ""18 or more""]",A,2026-05-01
+69d104ace1dc2a005c2219c4,single,yes_no,Will Shrek get more Wikipedia pageviews than Bitcoin in April 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-01
+6964e98652029b005bc00995,single,yes_no,"Will the vice president of Sindnapi, Frei Chico, testify before the INSS CPMI?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-02
+69ac1a945b8448005d44c09f,single,yes_no,Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-02
+69d4f90949a1b20067eec44e,single,yes_no,Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of April?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-02
+69db909da722520066e1c697,multi,multiple_choice,What will the World Press Freedom Index of the UK be in 2026?,"[""Above 70"", ""Above 74"", ""Above 77"", ""Above 78"", ""Above 79"", ""Above 82"", ""Above 86""]","A, B, C, D, E",2026-05-03
+69e61ca2280aa100686b8207,single,yes_no,Will LeBron James score 35 or more points in any game of the 2026 First Round?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-05
+69d3aab8e53ae80066abf5cd,single,multiple_choice,Bank of Mexico Decision in May,"[""the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting"", ""the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting"", ""the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting""]",A,2026-05-07
+69f1fc289f7b49005d1584b8,multi,multiple_choice,UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final,"[""Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Newcastle United reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Atalanta reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Bayer Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League final"", ""Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League final""]","C, G",2026-05-07
+69d64a8abcc475005c311b8d,single,multiple_choice,Who will control the Tameside council after the 2026 UK local elections?,"[""Labour"", ""Liberal Democrats"", ""Conservative"", ""Green"", ""Reform"", ""No overall control"", ""Other""]",F,2026-05-08
+69d64a8abcc475005c311ba1,single,multiple_choice,Which party will finish second in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?,"[""Reform UK"", ""Scottish Labour Party"", ""Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party"", ""Scottish Liberal Democrats"", ""Scottish Green Party""]",B,2026-05-08
+69d64a8abcc475005c311ba4,single,multiple_choice,What will Reform UK's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?,"[""Below 0"", ""0 - 99"", ""100 - 299"", ""300 - 599"", ""600 - 899"", ""900 - 1199"", ""1200 - 1500"", ""Above 1500""]",G,2026-05-08
+69e228161542b800699e1f86,multi,multiple_choice,Who will be elected as parish councillors for Elwick Parish Council in Hartlepool in the 2026 election?,"[""Sam Ashton"", ""Brigitte Olivia Connor"", ""Minna Ireland"", ""Simon Paul Knowles"", ""Matty Robertson"", ""Roderick John Thompson"", ""Hayley Tubb"", ""Kiara Emma Hutchinson""]","A, B, C, D, F, G, H",2026-05-08
+69f1fc289f7b49005d1584b7,multi,multiple_choice,UEFA Europa Conference League: Team to reach final,"[""Raków reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Sparta Praha reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Samsunspor reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Strasbourg reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Shakhtar Donetsk reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""AEK Larnaca reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Crystal Palace reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Lech Poznań reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""AZ Alkmaar reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""AEK Athens reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Mainz reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Celje reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Fiorentina reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Sigma Olomouc reach the UEFA Conference League final"", ""Rijeka reach the UEFA Conference League final""]","G, K",2026-05-08
+69e0d6aa3913b600688a1dd3,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the 2026 local election for Manor House Ward in Hartlepool?,"[""Ronnie Buglass (Reform)"", ""Tom Casey (Green)"", ""Pamela Claire Hargreaves (Labour)""]",A,2026-05-09
+69f1fa089f7b49005d158499,single,yes_no,Will US nonfarm payroll employment increase in April?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-09
+69d8ed9b677c89005c375952,single,yes_no,"Will Pete Hegseth be fired before 10 May, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-10
+69de339aab5b1b0067f23c7c,single,multiple_choice,Global Average Temperature April 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951 1980 base period (NASA Gistemp),"[""April 2026 less than 1.095C"", ""April 2026 1.095C or more and less than 1.145C"", ""April 2026 1.145C or more and less than 1.195C"", ""April 2026 1.195C or more and less than 1.245C"", ""April 2026 1.245C or more and less than 1.295C"", ""April 2026 1.295C or more and less than 1.345C"", ""April 2026 1.345C or more""]",C,2026-05-14
+69f891cbab4486005c6c3838,single,yes_no,Lakers vs. Thunder Series Length (>5 Games),"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-14
+69e0d9d23913b600688a1de4,single,binary_named,MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano,"[""Rousey"", ""Carano""]",A,2026-05-17
+6964e98652029b005bc009a8,single,yes_no,Will Arsenal win any major trophy in the 2025/2026 season?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-05-18
+69e37cdc41b890006864243b,single,multiple_choice,Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?,"[""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to -0.4%"", ""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between -0.3% and -0.1%"", ""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.2%"", ""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.5%"", ""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.8%"", ""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.1%"", ""Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.2%""]",E,2026-05-19
+69f49d0a64cf0a0069d0e418,single,yes_no,Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-21
+6a01cc0b731a290067c50e8b,single,yes_no,"Will Senate Banking hold a crypto market-structure markup by May 20, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-05-21
+6a046f3b8ec64b006880f07b,single,yes_no,"Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 21, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-05-22
+69eb6299527a6b00687c12b1,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the Corteva Enterprise Award at the 2026 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]?,"[""Mounds View H.S. (Arden Hills, MN)"", ""Great Neck South H.S. (Great Neck, NY)"", ""Jordan H.S. (Fulshear, TX)"", ""Lower Merion H.S. (Ardmore, PA)"", ""Acton-Boxborough Regional H.S. (Acton, MA)"", ""Tesla STEM H.S. (Redmond, WA)"", ""West Windsor-Plainsboro H.S. North (Plainsboro, NJ)"", ""Frazer School (Gainesville, FL)"", ""Other"", ""Troy H.S. (Troy, MI)""]",E,2026-05-24
+69ecb46a504071005c3df665,multi,multiple_choice,Which Teams will finish top 4 in La Liga?,"[""Real Madrid"", ""Barcelona"", ""Atletico Madrid"", ""Villarreal"", ""Alaves"", ""Mallorca"", ""Betis"", ""Sevilla"", ""Any Team Not Listed""]","A, B, C, D",2026-05-25
+699702870408ab00683a024e,single,binary_named,Who will win the 2026 Democratic primary for Texas's 18th congressional district?,"[""Al Green"", ""Christian Menefee""]",B,2026-05-26
+69ef5711094050005e2a1236,single,multiple_choice,Who will trump endorse the in Texas gop senate runoff?,"[""John cornyn"", ""Ken paxton"", ""No endorsement made/endorses both""]",B,2026-05-26
+69f1fa159f7b49005d1584ab,single,multiple_choice,Which flavour will win the Meridian Huel Championship Bracket,"[""Vanilla"", ""Cinnamon"", ""Berry"", ""Salted Caramel"", ""Banana"", ""Chocolate"", ""Coffee Caramel"", ""Strawberry""]",C,2026-05-29
+6a0b06c098aa710068714587,single,yes_no,"Will SPY close below $720 on Friday, May 29, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-05-30
+69f5eea0b2a4f7005ec64532,single,yes_no,Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket],"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-01
+69ff290c5deeeb006839e45c,single,yes_no,Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at June 1 Computex keynote?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-02
+69f9e311ff8ae1005e03406b,single,multiple_choice,"who will win Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors election, District 2 on June 2nd 2026","[""Laura Capps"", ""Elijah Mack"", ""other""]",A,2026-06-04
+6a09b55151bf2c006712b3bf,single,yes_no,"Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) close above $85,000 on June 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-06
+6a0b06c098aa71006871457e,single,yes_no,"Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-06
+6a0efb1f32b3e1005de2cd33,single,yes_no,"Will Brent crude futures close above $120 on Friday, June 5, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-06
+6a119e1722dbd400672556e7,multi,multiple_choice,Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 French Open Semifinals?,"[""J. Sinner (1)"", ""A. Zverev (2)"", ""N. Djokovic (3)"", ""F. Auger-Aliassime (4)"", ""D. Medvedev (6)"", ""A. de Minaur (8)"", ""F. Cobolli (10)"", ""A. Rublev (11)"", ""C. Ruud (15)"", ""A. Fils (17)"", ""C. Norrie (20)"", ""T. Paul (24)"", ""F. Cerundolo (25)"", ""R. Jodar (27)""]","B, G",2026-06-06
+6a0b06c098aa710068714583,single,yes_no,Will Euphoria Season 3 finish at 70 or above on Metacritic?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-07
+6a144109314f08005cc4064f,single,multiple_choice,Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?,"[""The University of Iowa (Midwestern Site)"", ""University of Nevada, Reno (Western Site)"", ""Western Carolina University (Southern Site)"", ""Saint Anselm College (New England Site)"", ""The Pennsylvania State University (Eastern Site)""]",A,2026-06-07
+69ff290c5deeeb006839e462,single,yes_no,Will anyone recieve a majority in round 1 of the LA mayor election?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-08
+6a144109314f08005cc40653,multi,multiple_choice,Who will finish top 3 in the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix?,"[""Kimi Antonelli"", ""George Russell"", ""Charles Leclerc"", ""Lando Norris"", ""Lewis Hamilton"", ""Max Verstappen"", ""Oscar Piastri"", ""Fernando Alonso"", ""Isaak Hadjar"", ""Esteban ocon"", ""Nico Hulkenberg"", ""Gabriel bortoleto"", ""Arvid Lindblad"", ""Franco colapinto""]","A, E, I",2026-06-08
+6a09b55151bf2c006712b3c9,single,yes_no,Will Apple mention Google or Gemini in its WWDC 2026 keynote?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-09
+6a031d8d37d1ac0066caa304,multi,multiple_choice,Brazil 2026 World Cup Squad: Which players will be on the list (26-man squad)?,"[""João Pedro"", ""Endrick"", ""Lucas Paquetá"", ""Neymar"", ""Estevão""]","B, C, D",2026-06-11
+6a119e1722dbd400672556e5,multi,multiple_choice,Who will advance from the CA-4 Primary?,"[""Eric Jones (D)"", ""Ray Riehle (R)"", ""Chuck Uribe (R)"", ""Jimi Jones (R)"", ""Thomas Reach (NPP)"", ""Mike Thompson (D)""]","A, F",2026-06-11
+6a18358d05f46e00675e40cf,single,multiple_choice,Which book will win the 2026 Women's Prize for Fiction,"[""Flashlight by Susan Choi"", ""Dominion by Addie E. Citchens"", ""The Correspondent by Virginia Evans"", ""The Mercy Step by Marcia Hutchinson"", ""Kingfisher by Rozie Kelly"", ""Heart the Lover by Lily King""]",C,2026-06-11
+6a217008580e17002cf93ced,multi,multiple_choice,Who will make the runoff for the 2026 Republican Governor South Carolina nomination?,"[""Pamela Evette"", ""Alan Wilson"", ""Nancy Mace"", ""Ralph Norman"", ""Josh Kimbrell"", ""Rom Reddy""]","A, B",2026-06-11
+695fa38ae56c28005d3c3242,single,multiple_choice,Who will win taskmaster series 21,"[""Amy Gledhill"", ""Armando Iannucci"", ""Joanna Page"", ""Joel Dommett"", ""Kumail Nanjiani""]",C,2026-06-12
+6a046f3b8ec64b006880f080,multi,multiple_choice,Which of these players will be selected for the World Cup?,"[""Casemiro (Brazil)"", ""N'Golo Kanté (France)"", ""Kees Smit (The Netherlands)"", ""Neymar Jr. (Brazil)"", ""Mikel Merino (Spain)"", ""Antony (Brazil)"", ""Trent Alexander-Arnold (England)"", ""Marc-André Ter Stegen (Germany)"", ""Levi Colwill (England)"", ""Jack Grealish (England)""]","A, B, D, E",2026-06-12
+6a0efb1f32b3e1005de2cd34,single,yes_no,"Will NVDA close above $250 on Friday, June 12, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-13
+6a144109314f08005cc40658,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the primary for California lieutenant governor?,"[""Janelle Kellman"", ""Michael Tubbs"", ""Ebie Lynch"", ""Alice Stek"", ""David Fennell"", ""Josh Fryday"", ""Tim Myers"", ""Fiona Ma""]",H,2026-06-13
+6a0712113d6395005d4862ba,single,yes_no,"Will ""Scary Movie 6"" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-14
+6a086392cb956000646f3b88,single,multiple_choice,Global Average Temperature May 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951 base period (NASA Gistemp),"[""May 2026 less than 1.095C"", ""May 2026 1.095C or more and less than 1.145C"", ""May 2026 1.145C or more and less than 1.195C"", ""May 2026 1.195C or more and less than 1.245C"", ""May 2026 1.245C or more and less than 1.295C"", ""May 2026 1.295C or more""]",B,2026-06-16
+6a217009580e17002cf93d1d,single,multiple_choice,Next target for the Bank of Japan’s interest rate (June),"[""Rise by 0.25%"", ""Maintain the same rate"", ""Rise by 0.5% or more"", ""Lower the rate""]",A,2026-06-16
+6a0c5814007f0d005dcabea6,single,yes_no,Will Andy Burnham win a majority of the vote in the Makerfield byelection?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-18
+6a217008580e17002cf93ce7,single,yes_no,Will May 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-18
+6a0da98a7f2ebb0066d334c8,single,yes_no,"Will Donald Trump issue an executive order imposing new tariffs on EU-origin goods by June 14, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-19
+6a104c89ffba8e005c4c8b05,single,yes_no,Will Almonty Shareholders Approve the proposal to double Sangdong mine's Tungsten capacity on June 9th 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-19
+6a1ad8a5a7e0af00656c06b5,single,multiple_choice,Which character will be revealed as a descendant of Richard Warren in Apple TV+ ’s Widow’s Bay?,"[""Patricia (Kate O’Flynn)"", ""Bechir (Kevin Carroll)"", ""Wyck (Stephen Root)"", ""Evan, Tom’s son (Kingston Rumi Southwick)""]",D,2026-06-19
+cf56b970fab0d672471b4da6,multi,multiple_choice,"2026 FIFA World Cup — Brazil vs Haiti: which of these players will score (anytime goalscorer, per FIFA match report)","[""Vinícius Jr"", ""Rodrygo"", ""Raphinha"", ""Endrick"", ""Frantzdy Pierrot"", ""Any other player"", ""No goal scored""]","A, F",2026-06-19
+0d914a2d0b18ffedc551e144,multi,multiple_choice,"2026 FIFA World Cup — Spain vs Saudi Arabia: which of these players will score (anytime goalscorer, per FIFA match report)","[""Lamine Yamal"", ""Nico Williams"", ""Álvaro Morata"", ""Mikel Oyarzabal"", ""Salem Al-Dawsari"", ""Any other player"", ""No goal scored""]","A, D",2026-06-21
+6a26b60e9b0b8587160de1a5,multi,multiple_choice,Who will finish top 3 in the 2026 Barcelona Grand Prix?,"[""Kimi Antonelli"", ""George Russell"", ""Lewis Hamilton"", ""Max Verstappen"", ""Oscar Piastri"", ""Charles Leclerc"", ""Lando Norris"", ""Isaak Hadjar"", ""Liam lawson"", ""Franco colapinto"", ""Carlos Sainz"", ""Alex Albon"", ""Arvid Lindblad"", ""Fernando Alonso""]","B, C, G",2026-06-22
+6a0efb1f32b3e1005de2cd3e,single,yes_no,Will Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-23
+6a1592a005d7030069729b99,multi,multiple_choice,Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NBA Draft?,"[""Cameron Boozer"", ""Darryn Peterson"", ""AJ Dybantsa"", ""Caleb Wilson"", ""Kingston Flemings"", ""Keaton Wagler"", ""Darius Acuff Jr."", ""Hannes Steinbach"", ""Nate Ament"", ""Mikel Brown Jr."", ""Brayden Burries"", ""Labaron Philon"", ""Jayden Quaintance"", ""Braylon Mullins""]","A, B, C, D, F",2026-06-26
+6a26b60e9b0b8587160de194,single,yes_no,Will May 2026 U.S. real personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-26
+6a26b60e9b0b8587160de196,single,yes_no,Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-06-26
+6a2bfc099b0b8587160de268,multi,multiple_choice,In which groups will the third-placed team advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,"[""Group A"", ""Group B"", ""Group C"", ""Group D"", ""Group E"", ""Group F"", ""Group G"", ""Group H"", ""Group I"", ""Group J"", ""Group K"", ""Group L""]","B, D, E, F, I, J, K, L",2026-06-29
+6a201edf580e17002cf93c57,single,yes_no,Will Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-06-30
+59ad4f9bba6fc46e69c4691c,multi,multiple_choice,"2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 — Portugal vs Croatia: which of these players will score (anytime goalscorer, per FIFA match report)","[""Cristiano Ronaldo"", ""Bruno Fernandes"", ""Rafael Leao"", ""Luka Modric"", ""Any other player"", ""No goal scored""]","A, E",2026-07-04
+6a217008580e17002cf93cec,single,binary_named,Who will win DEATH BATTLE: The Sentry vs Superboy-Prime,"[""The Sentry"", ""Superboy-Prime""]",B,2026-07-04
+6a33e516ba3c180033fdebc0,single,yes_no,Will US nonfarm payroll employment increase in June?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-07-04
+eff41e12efa25f1d1b1b5d49,multi,multiple_choice,"2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 — Argentina vs Cape Verde: which of these players will score (anytime goalscorer, per FIFA match report)","[""Lionel Messi"", ""Julian Alvarez"", ""Lautaro Martinez"", ""Any other player"", ""No goal scored""]","A, D",2026-07-04
+6a22c1969b0b8587160ddff2,multi,multiple_choice,Who will finish at the top 2 in the women's t20 world cup in group 1?,"[""Australia"", ""India"", ""Bangladesh"", ""Netherlands"", ""Pakistan"", ""South Africa""]","A, F",2026-07-05
+6a3142089b0b8587160de444,multi,multiple_choice,Who will finish top 3 in the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix?,"[""Kimi Antonelli"", ""George Russell"", ""Lewis Hamilton"", ""Max Verstappen"", ""Charles Leclerc"", ""Lando Norris"", ""Oscar Piastri"", ""Isaak Hadjar"", ""Pierre Gasly"", ""Carlos Sainz"", ""Nico Hulkenberg"", ""Sergio perez"", ""Valtteri Bottas"", ""Arvid Lindblad""]","A, B, D",2026-07-06
+56a8d7ccb4ef5c666a939205,single,yes_no,"Will Bitcoin (BTC) trade below $58,000 USD at any point between 1 and 7 July 2026 (per CoinGecko intraday low)","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-07-07
+883cab82e351ea616a78758c,multi,multiple_choice,Wimbledon 2026 — which of these players will reach the fourth round (last 16) of their singles draw (per official Wimbledon results),"[""Jannik Sinner"", ""Novak Djokovic"", ""Aryna Sabalenka"", ""Iga Swiatek"", ""Coco Gauff"", ""Alexander Zverev""]","A, B, C, E, F",2026-07-07
+ac9ed20ea2c00e5d98a8396a,multi,multiple_choice,"2026 FIFA World Cup — which of these Golden Boot contenders will score in their knockout match(es) played between 1 and 7 July 2026 (anytime goalscorer, per FIFA match reports)","[""Lionel Messi"", ""Kylian Mbappe"", ""Vinicius Junior"", ""Ousmane Dembele"", ""Erling Haaland"", ""Harry Kane""]","A, B, E, F",2026-07-07
+6a33e516ba3c180033fdebc1,single,yes_no,China's monthly consumer inflation (CPI) greater than -0.1% in June?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-09
+6a2bfc099b0b8587160de2b3,single,multiple_choice,Global Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951 1980 base period (NASA Gistemp),"[""June 2026 less than 1.095C"", ""June 2026 1.095C or more and less than 1.145C"", ""June 2026 1.145C or more and less than 1.195C"", ""June 2026 1.195C or more and less than 1.245C"", ""June 2026 1.245C or more and less than 1.295C"", ""June 2026 1.295C or more""]",C,2026-07-10
+93f7c4bb47ee8db95b8e6511,single,multiple_choice,"2026-07-13, which film will be the #1 movie at the North American (domestic) weekend box office for the Jul 10-12 weekend, per Box Office Mojo","[""Minions & Monsters"", ""Toy Story 5"", ""Supergirl"", ""Young Washington"", ""Another film""]",E,2026-07-13
+d9dfc89c7c05d988de310aa8,single,multiple_choice,What gross margin will TSMC report for Q2 2026?,"[""Below 58.0%"", ""58.0%–59.9%"", ""60.0%–61.9%"", ""62.0% or higher""]",D,2026-07-16
+39fe43e5242c34590308b4cb,single,multiple_choice,Will Netflix report a Q2 2026 operating margin of at least 30.0%?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-07-17
+6a3142089b0b8587160de433,single,yes_no,Will May 2026 U.S. business inventories rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-17
+6a3142089b0b8587160de435,single,yes_no,Will June 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-17
+6a41140c314ead00332a1901,single,yes_no,Euro area’s inflation rate > 3.2% in June?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-17
+6a32938c742380002c511076,single,yes_no,Will June 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 76.5%?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-18
+6a32938c742380002c511079,single,yes_no,Will June 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-18
+6a32938c742380002c51107b,single,yes_no,Will June 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-18
+6a3536a3ba3c180033fdec78,single,yes_no,Will IShowSpeed do an IRL livestream from inside the stadium during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-20
+5f91e568948f761ebd625854,single,multiple_choice,"After Alphabet releases Q2 2026 results, will its reported quarterly Google Cloud revenue exceed $17 billion?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-07-23
+6a3bce28bd5ae3002b2b79d3,single,multiple_choice,What percent critic's score will Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey get on RT?,"[""0 - 19"", ""20 - 39"", ""40 - 59"", ""60 - 79"", ""80 - 89"", ""90 - 100""]",F,2026-07-25
+6a58cf0fb8cc3e002d528f08,single,yes_no,Democratic Senate nominee to replace Graham Platner will be Patrick Dempsey or Troy Jackson or Shenna Bellows.,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-07-25
+5b101371ec443170fa4dbba9,single,multiple_choice,"Who will win the New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies MLB game played July 26, 2026?","[""New York Yankees"", ""Philadelphia Phillies""]",B,2026-07-27
+69fdd79a458d8400671de3a8,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the Republican primary for the 2026 gubernatorial election in South Dakota,"[""Larry Rhoden (Incumbent)"", ""Dusty Johnson"", ""Jon Hansen"", ""Toby Doeden"", ""Other""]",A,2026-07-28
+c699f4bb9ea1ac4be03c0fe1,single,multiple_choice,"Which team will win the T1 versus KT Rolster LCK series on July 29, 2026?","[""T1"", ""KT Rolster""]",B,2026-07-29
+6a47ab90e4cde4002d707f58,single,yes_no,Will the US PCE annual inflation be greater than 4.1% in June?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-07-30
+b680a141b9a60752956a7d87,single,multiple_choice,What will Amazon report as net sales for Q2 2026?,"[""Below $194 billion"", ""$194 billion to below $197 billion"", ""$197 billion to below $200 billion"", ""$200 billion or more""]",D,2026-07-30
+6c799c2bd18c2f4f5047bb70,single,multiple_choice,"Which team will win the Gen.G versus T1 LCK series on July 31, 2026?","[""Gen.G"", ""T1""]",B,2026-07-31
+6a5cc392fad4cf002c34d029,single,yes_no,"Will Manchester City defeat Inter Milan in their pre-season friendly on August 1, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-08-02
+6a5a209a9f76f3002d448e89,single,yes_no,"Will ""The Odyssey"" reach $200 million domestic box office by August 2, 2026?","[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-03
+bc279e8569418ffc72d7ed44,single,multiple_choice,What will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 be?,"[""Below 48.0"", ""48.0 to below 50.0"", ""50.0 to below 52.0"", ""52.0 or higher""]",D,2026-08-03
+2676185fb1568311babe3a98,single,multiple_choice,Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day open above $130 million at the U.S. domestic box office?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-04
+6a5a209a9f76f3002d448e94,single,multiple_choice,"Which party will win the Bankipur (Bihar, India) by-election?","[""Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)"", ""Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)"", ""Jan Suraaj Party (JSP)"", ""Other""]",C,2026-08-04
+3d784c1469888f7e112ae4ec,single,multiple_choice,South Korea's official foreign-exchange reserves at end-July 2026 (USD billions),"[""Below US$425.0 billion"", ""US$425.0 billion to less than US$430.0 billion"", ""US$430.0 billion to less than US$435.0 billion"", ""US$435.0 billion or more""]",B,2026-08-05
+546374a6f1b40a4b1b2ba015,single,multiple_choice,Indonesia Q2 2026 real GDP growth (year-on-year),"[""Below 5.0%"", ""5.0% to less than 5.5%"", ""5.5% to less than 6.0%"", ""6.0% or higher""]",B,2026-08-05
+62da4fc6689459ab8f131989,single,multiple_choice,"U.S. commercial crude-oil inventories excluding the SPR for the week ending July 31, 2026","[""Below 400.0 million barrels"", ""400.0 to 409.9 million barrels"", ""410.0 to 419.9 million barrels"", ""420.0 million barrels or more""]",B,2026-08-05
+9797ef8ebde6831c8ad3eab8,single,multiple_choice,July 2026 U.S. ISM Services PMI,"[""Below 48.0"", ""48.0 to less than 52.0"", ""52.0 to less than 56.0"", ""56.0 or higher""]",C,2026-08-05
+20483bf0fea9e55807740f12,single,multiple_choice,"EIA weekly natural-gas storage report: total Lower 48 working gas in storage for the week ending July 31, 2026","[""Below 3,050 Bcf"", ""3,050 Bcf to less than 3,100 Bcf"", ""3,100 Bcf to less than 3,150 Bcf"", ""3,150 Bcf or more""]",C,2026-08-06
+c7fcfb7d8992eac71769b76b,single,multiple_choice,"U.S. seasonally adjusted initial unemployment-insurance claims for the week ending August 1, 2026","[""Below 200,000"", ""200,000 to 219,999"", ""220,000 to 239,999"", ""240,000 or more""]",A,2026-08-06
+ddcf21d47c02d38fe395636a,single,multiple_choice,Euro area June 2026 retail-trade volume: seasonally adjusted month-over-month change,"[""Below -0.5%"", ""-0.5% to less than 0.0%"", ""0.0% to less than 0.5%"", ""0.5% or higher""]",B,2026-08-06
+ee54afd9171b0913fcf547af,single,multiple_choice,U.S. Q2 2026 preliminary nonfarm-business labor-productivity growth (annualized quarter-over-quarter),"[""Below -1.0%"", ""-1.0% to 0.9%"", ""1.0% to 2.9%"", ""3.0% or higher""]",C,2026-08-06
+051cde3dab31d660de5829e2,single,multiple_choice,Lionsgate fiscal Q1 2027 total revenue,"[""Below $0.7 billion"", ""$0.7 billion to less than $0.9 billion"", ""$0.9 billion to less than $1.1 billion"", ""$1.1 billion or more""]",B,2026-08-07
+6a62098e454dd8002dbc266b,single,yes_no,US unemployment rate above 4.2% in July?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-08-07
+80f395c8491a610e7a03a0ec,single,multiple_choice,U.S. Spacewalk 96: official EVA duration,"[""Less than 5 hours 30 minutes"", ""5 hours 30 minutes to 6 hours 29 minutes"", ""6 hours 30 minutes to 7 hours 29 minutes"", ""7 hours 30 minutes or longer""]",B,2026-08-07
+6a562c0fc74f360035962555,single,yes_no,China's monthly consumer inflation (CPI) greater than -0.3% in July?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-09
+6a5a209a9f76f3002d448e9b,single,multiple_choice,Who will win the Democratic primary in Hawaii's 1st congressional district?,"[""Ed Case"", ""Jarrett Keohokalole"", ""Other""]",A,2026-08-09
+8d098d9242621372cb48baa6,single,multiple_choice,TSMC July 2026 consolidated net revenue (NT$ billions),"[""Below NT$400.0 billion"", ""NT$400.0 billion to less than NT$450.0 billion"", ""NT$450.0 billion to less than NT$500.0 billion"", ""NT$500.0 billion or more""]",C,2026-08-10
+1c0a55fec102dbd3fdca41e2,single,multiple_choice,USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn rated good or excellent in the report released 10 August 2026,"[""Below 55%"", ""55% to less than 60%"", ""60% to less than 65%"", ""65% or higher""]",C,2026-08-11
+6a47ab90e4cde4002d707f68,single,binary_named,Winner of Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary,"[""Penny Flanagan"", ""Angie Craig""]",A,2026-08-11
+c10073e43bd2e17a3631ceb2,single,multiple_choice,Ice Cream Man (2026) domestic three-day opening-weekend box office gross,"[""Below $3.0 million"", ""$3.0 million to less than $6.0 million"", ""$6.0 million to less than $10.0 million"", ""$10.0 million or more""]",A,2026-08-11
+6a5b72109f76f3002d44909f,single,yes_no,Will anyone other than Farage and Binface get their deposit back in the 2026 Clacton by-election?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-08-14
+d17c311fc07853ff6ea3246e,single,multiple_choice,"At the 5:00 a.m. HST 19 August 2026 advisory, what intensity category will NOAA report for Tropical Cyclone Lala?","[""hurricane (64 knots or greater)"", ""tropical storm (34 to 63 knots)"", ""tropical depression or post-tropical cyclone (33 knots or less)"", ""no active Lala advisory is issued""]",A,2026-08-19
+139170d8a10c090abb9ff4ec,single,multiple_choice,"In NHSBSA's 20 August 2026 Prescribing for Diabetes release, which treatment type will have the most prescription items in England in 2025/26?","[""antidiabetic drugs"", ""diagnostic and monitoring devices"", ""hypoglycaemia management products"", ""other diabetes-related drugs and appliances""]",A,2026-08-20
+144fb0fd2eca78f979d737d4,single,multiple_choice,Will the exact phrase “artificial intelligence” appear at least once in the published HTML article body of the FOMC minutes released on 20 August 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-20
+2dc80caba5b812460d0441c9,single,multiple_choice,Will the Census Bureau's Q2 2026 Advance Services Report show advance U.S. selected-services revenue higher than the preceding quarter?,"[""higher"", ""lower or unchanged""]",A,2026-08-20
+483d5b693a98bcbf6224dbaf,single,multiple_choice,Will Google Pixel 11 be on shelves at the Google Store and retail partners on 20 August 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-20
+ce8260ef987f0355f6357064,single,multiple_choice,Will China's one-year Loan Prime Rate remain 3.00% in the 20 August 2026 publication?,"[""Yes — the one-year LPR is 3.00%"", ""No — the one-year LPR is not 3.00%""]",A,2026-08-20
+b11e42d27b488554b12b4f97,single,multiple_choice,UK July 2026 public sector finances: which range will ONS report for public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks?,"[""Below £2 billion"", ""£2 billion to below £5 billion"", ""£5 billion to below £8 billion"", ""£8 billion or higher""]",A,2026-08-21
+f50d8202120ac657b4e625ab,single,multiple_choice,"In NOAA CPC's September 2026 temperature outlook issued on 20 August, which category will be assigned to New Mexico?","[""below normal"", ""equal chances"", ""above normal""]",C,2026-08-21
+eadaa954345ad98469c93ea1,single,multiple_choice,Will a Canadian pair reach the semifinals of the 2026 Beach Pro Tour Elite16 Montréal?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-24
+014821acf4472bd7ce1535bb,single,multiple_choice,"In Public Health Scotland's 25 August 2026 diagnostic-waiting-times release, what will be the national number of ongoing waits for the eight key diagnostic tests?","[""under 100,000"", ""100,000 to under 115,000"", ""115,000 to under 130,000"", ""130,000 or more""]",B,2026-08-25
+4807adb8d7d4f32844224360,single,multiple_choice,"In Public Health Scotland's 25 August 2026 care-at-home-services release, how many people will be reported as waiting for a social-care assessment?","[""under 2,000"", ""2,000 to under 4,000"", ""4,000 to under 6,000"", ""6,000 or more""]",D,2026-08-25
+8a2fa08cd60b19e2c521d009,single,multiple_choice,Federal Reserve H.10: what will the 21 August 2026 U.S.-dollar-per-euro daily reference rate be?,"[""below US$1.1400 per euro"", ""US$1.1400 to below US$1.1550 per euro"", ""US$1.1550 to below US$1.1700 per euro"", ""US$1.1700 per euro or higher""]",C,2026-08-25
+e9360305fd19d228d9ae58d0,single,multiple_choice,US July 2026 new-home sales: at what seasonally adjusted annual rate will sales be reported?,"[""below 600,000 SAAR"", ""600,000 to 649,999 SAAR"", ""650,000 to 699,999 SAAR"", ""700,000 SAAR or higher""]",B,2026-08-25
+fe18163f968fd6da367ba6fe,single,multiple_choice,"Among Insidious: Out of the Further, Mutiny, and Spa Weekend, which title will have the highest domestic gross in Box Office Mojo's 2026W34 weekend table?","[""Insidious: Out of the Further"", ""Mutiny"", ""Spa Weekend""]",A,2026-08-25
+1ba15e5f442fec1f9e1708d3,single,multiple_choice,What active-recruitment vacancy rate will Northern Ireland report in its HSC Active Recruitment Statistics for June 2026?,"[""under 6%"", ""6% to under 7%"", ""7% to under 8%"", ""8% or more"", ""No official release by the deadline""]",C,2026-08-26
+abba636ebcab9ecd559d0dca,single,multiple_choice,How many families with an open Tax-Free Childcare account will HMRC report in its June 2026 statistics?,"[""Under 1.5 million"", ""1.5 million to under 2.0 million"", ""2.0 million to under 2.5 million"", ""2.5 million or more""]",A,2026-08-26
+851a70594771f5487528bce1,single,multiple_choice,Will Netflix release Leanne Season 2 on 27 August 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-27
+3d6d82f78d743e15a882f56e,single,multiple_choice,Will the MTG-I2 Ariane 6 mission lift off on 27 August 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-28
+5968a2ad67e727ca3baed6b1,single,multiple_choice,Will Netflix release The Whisper Man on 28 August 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-28
+9f5b9507b27d1cdde2e9e7fc,single,multiple_choice,Will Hong Kong CHP's week-34 2026 Flu Express still state that Hong Kong is in influenza season?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""No official bulletin""]",A,2026-08-28
+abe617471ea8ff9c80170005,single,multiple_choice,Will Canada’s Q2 2026 current-account balance be in surplus?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""No official result by the deadline""]",A,2026-08-28
+e041f3a52a94197281e570a8,single,multiple_choice,Will Roadside Attractions open Buddy in U.S. theaters on 28 August 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-08-29
+207d78382aca88d46afac10e,single,multiple_choice,Which manufacturer will win the 2026 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona?,"[""Chevrolet"", ""Ford"", ""Toyota"", ""No official completed race by the deadline""]",B,2026-08-30
+73076da210829ad41201c202,single,multiple_choice,Which work will win the 2026 Hugo Award for Best Novel?,"[""A Drop of Corruption"", ""Death of the Author"", ""Shroud"", ""The Everlasting"", ""The Incandescent"", ""The Raven Scholar""]",D,2026-09-01
+802998eb6c251d77b80f0030,single,multiple_choice,Will the official SCO English site report that the Chinese president attended the 2026 Bishkek Council of Heads of State meeting?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-09-01
+ac77bfef41811cd66cf432e6,single,multiple_choice,What year-on-year range will Hong Kong's July 2026 retail-sales volume show?,"[""Decrease"", ""0.0% to 4.9% increase"", ""5.0% to 9.9% increase"", ""10.0% to 19.9% increase"", ""20.0% or greater increase"", ""No official release by the deadline""]",B,2026-09-01
+ba3e037e0dce5e34124c42eb,single,multiple_choice,Will Denmark's official August 2026 Security Council presidency site publish a month wrap-up by 1 September 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",B,2026-09-01
+167bb4ef370014543026294c,single,multiple_choice,Will Brazil's industrial production increase month on month in July 2026?,"[""Yes, above 0.0%"", ""No, 0.0% or lower"", ""No official release by the deadline""]",A,2026-09-02
+5b711b4e9c0087b57ecf492a,single,multiple_choice,Will Ülle Madise be elected President of Estonia in the first Riigikogu ballot on 2 September 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",A,2026-09-02
+a3480f0d4f6a2552d63c185a,single,multiple_choice,How many games will be played in the LCK playoff best-of-five scheduled for 2 September 2026?,"[""3 games"", ""4 games"", ""5 games"", ""CANCELLED""]",C,2026-09-02
+04300853f6cb3b71028ec448,single,multiple_choice,Will Broadcom report fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of at least US$29.4 billion?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-09-03
+352abcb9053b93f7758938d9,single,multiple_choice,Will NOAA SWPC's Solar Region Summary for 3 September 2026 list any region with beta-gamma or beta-gamma-delta magnetic class?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-03
+6e8507c15cf3415c5924696f,single,multiple_choice,What share of the contiguous United States will the U.S. Drought Monitor place in D1–D4 drought on the map valid 1 September 2026?,"[""Below 52.00%"", ""52.00% to 55.99%"", ""56.00% to 59.99%"", ""60.00% or above"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",C,2026-09-03
+b5bea707524108175c5d0bfd,single,multiple_choice,Will New Clause 31 on a National Commission on Electoral Reform be added to the UK Representation of the People Bill?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",B,2026-09-03
+0df67389ed472f6e5d471a3c,single,multiple_choice,What range will euro-area retail-trade volume growth occupy in July 2026 month on month?,"[""-0.6% or lower"", ""-0.5% to -0.1%"", ""0.0% to 0.4%"", ""0.5% or higher"", ""No official release by the deadline""]",A,2026-09-04
+e2f0db167f4d38e5ecd38147,single,multiple_choice,What SARS-CoV-2 positivity band will China CDC report among outpatient ILI respiratory samples for week 35 of 2026?,"[""under 17%"", ""17% to under 20%"", ""20% to under 23%"", ""23% or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",A,2026-09-04
+4be47864d3acb5095cf189b6,single,multiple_choice,What daily precipitation total will JMA report at Osaka station on 4 September 2026?,"[""0.0 mm"", ""0.1 to 4.9 mm"", ""5.0 to 19.9 mm"", ""20.0 mm or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_DATA""]",D,2026-09-05
+6cfb9525761abee18c55fb9a,single,multiple_choice,How many total filtered severe-weather reports will NOAA SPC list for the convective day of 3 September 2026?,"[""0 to 49"", ""50 to 99"", ""100 to 199"", ""200 or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",D,2026-09-05
+8c54f57ee223b4a798175cb0,single,multiple_choice,What national clinical-laboratory influenza positivity band will CDC FluView report for week 34 of 2026?,"[""under 0.5%"", ""0.5% to under 0.8%"", ""0.8% to under 1.1%"", ""1.1% or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",D,2026-09-05
+691082df3b869fae4fd63f14,single,multiple_choice,Will the Penrith Panthers defeat the Wests Tigers in NRL Round 27?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""CANCELLED""]",A,2026-09-06
+54cda0cb1f93bf01e01f1f05,single,multiple_choice,What rainfall total will Australia's Bureau of Meteorology report for Sydney Observatory Hill on 6 September 2026?,"[""0.0 mm"", ""0.1 to 4.9 mm"", ""5.0 to 19.9 mm"", ""20.0 mm or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_DATA""]",A,2026-09-07
+79ed0ceb4422d1d2eb107dce,single,multiple_choice,Will South Africa's real GDP grow quarter on quarter in Q2 2026?,"[""Yes, above 0.0%"", ""No, 0.0% or lower"", ""No official release by the deadline""]",B,2026-09-08
+2045107c3e41c849221a4274,single,multiple_choice,Will France's manufacturing output increase month on month in July 2026?,"[""Yes, above 0.0%"", ""No, 0.0% or below"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-09
+2afe5ef465c3e93903cc3751,single,multiple_choice,Will Malaysia's Industrial Production Index grow at least 5.0% year on year in July 2026?,"[""Yes, 5.0% or higher"", ""No, below 5.0%"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-09
+48e23a797a95d6b2bb6d8eb5,single,multiple_choice,Who will win Rhode Island's 2026 Democratic primary for governor?,"[""Helena Buonanno Foulkes"", ""Daniel J. McKee"", ""Gregory Stevens"", ""Another ballot candidate"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",A,2026-09-10
+b552cfa911b81efde744149c,single,multiple_choice,Will JMA report a daily maximum temperature of at least 30.0 degrees Celsius at Tokyo station on 10 September 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_DATA""]",B,2026-09-11
+1568681a24a002cc3586e3dd,single,multiple_choice,Will the UK House of Commons give the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill a second reading on 11 September 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",B,2026-09-12
+79d923cec7af2918e80c285e,single,multiple_choice,What national clinical-laboratory influenza positivity band will CDC FluView report for week 35 of 2026?,"[""under 0.5%"", ""0.5% to under 0.8%"", ""0.8% to under 1.1%"", ""1.1% or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",D,2026-09-12
+c50f3dafdc1b00587c0c369a,single,multiple_choice,What outcome will NASA report for the Progress 96 launch and planned Poisk-module docking?,"[""Docked to Poisk"", ""Launched but not docked to Poisk by the deadline"", ""Not launched by the deadline"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",C,2026-09-12
+e16263721ccf7d86806062cd,single,multiple_choice,Which range will India's all-India combined CPI inflation fall in for August 2026?,"[""Below 4.5%"", ""4.5%-4.9%"", ""5.0%-5.4%"", ""5.5% or higher"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-14
+38fa5c8dc3a6c5eff894996a,single,multiple_choice,How many numbered Atlantic disturbances will NHC's 1800 UTC 14 September 2026 Tropical Weather Outlook contain?,"[""0"", ""1"", ""2"", ""3"", ""4 or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-15
+46575147e04586e9d367ee4d,single,multiple_choice,Who will win Alberta's Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election on 14 September 2026?,"[""Mike Derry"", ""Kyle Campbell"", ""Kyle Joseph"", ""John Roggeveen"", ""Rolly Ashdown"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",B,2026-09-15
+943d7bcf261d764177168f6a,single,multiple_choice,Will USGS ComCat record at least one magnitude 6.5 or larger earthquake from 9 through 14 September 2026 UTC?,"[""Yes"", ""No""]",A,2026-09-15
+d969f65abc65d186eefd7534,single,multiple_choice,Which program will win the 2026 Emmy for Outstanding Reality Competition Program?,"[""Dancing with the Stars"", ""RuPaul's Drag Race"", ""Survivor"", ""Top Chef"", ""The Traitors"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",E,2026-09-15
+e4be83cb65d492aed4ea6ddc,single,multiple_choice,What payload-deployment outcome will be officially reported for Vega-C mission VV30 on 15 September 2026?,"[""Both Sentinel-3C and FLEX confirmed separated"", ""Only Sentinel-3C confirmed separated"", ""Only FLEX confirmed separated"", ""Launch occurred but neither payload separation was confirmed"", ""NO_LAUNCH_BY_DEADLINE"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",A,2026-09-15
+e76b71115125631000776bd4,single,multiple_choice,Which program will win the 2026 Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series?,"[""The Diplomat"", ""The Gilded Age"", ""A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms"", ""Paradise"", ""The Pitt"", ""Pluribus"", ""Slow Horses"", ""Your Friends & Neighbors"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",E,2026-09-15
+89ee009b9d64ec7f775deaba,single,multiple_choice,"Will Tropical Storm Norbert still be a tropical cyclone in the NHC 1500 UTC product on September 16, 2026?","[""Yes, an NHC Norbert Public Advisory is issued for 1500 UTC"", ""No, advisories have ended before that issuance"", ""Official archive unavailable by the deadline""]",B,2026-09-16
+8ac2030d8102cc3cc520e3cc,single,multiple_choice,Into which band will Australia's total tourism jobs fall in the June 2026 quarter?,"[""Below 710,000"", ""710,000 to 729,999"", ""730,000 to 749,999"", ""750,000 or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-16
+24c41904dfd713ef6b42fed1,single,multiple_choice,Into which band will the U.S. commercial crude-oil inventory change fall for the week ending 11 September 2026?,"[""Decrease of more than 5.0 million barrels"", ""Decrease of 0.1 to 5.0 million barrels"", ""No change or increase of up to 5.0 million barrels"", ""Increase of more than 5.0 million barrels"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-17
+2dffd9b4091506e3a57a9d6d,single,multiple_choice,Will ROSALÍA be nominated for Album of the Year in the 27th Annual Latin GRAMMY Awards nominations?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_NOMINATIONS_BY_DEADLINE""]",A,2026-09-17
+481054313f19c0ef0b3f6195,single,multiple_choice,Into which band will the number of volcanic earthquakes in PHIVOLCS' Mayon Volcano bulletin dated 18 September 2026 fall?,"[""0-4"", ""5-14"", ""15-29"", ""30 or more"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",C,2026-09-18
+4831dcd90c1cf0450af66f58,single,multiple_choice,Will the Scottish Parliament agree to the main motion in the government debate on Addressing the Harms of Health Misinformation on 17 September 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RESULT""]",A,2026-09-18
+e38886566f5d72c0d9b6455f,single,multiple_choice,What influenza activity level will Victoria report in its respiratory surveillance report issued around 18 September 2026?,"[""Low"", ""Low-moderate"", ""Moderate"", ""High"", ""Very high"", ""Another explicitly named level"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",C,2026-09-18
+e5b662a13d5b679e2e3e51e6,single,multiple_choice,Will the FDA approve zidesamtinib for previously treated ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer by 18 September 2026?,"[""Yes"", ""No"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_ACTION_BY_DEADLINE""]",A,2026-09-19
+e6e42d534307f409e7e10f64,single,multiple_choice,"Into which band will West Phoenix's AirNow daily PM2.5 AQI fall on September 18, 2026?","[""0-25"", ""26-50"", ""51-75"", ""76 or higher"", ""No official daily record by the deadline""]",A,2026-09-19
+74873c9924eedbc871a83f11,single,multiple_choice,Into which band will the August 2026 Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall?,"[""Below -0.50"", ""-0.50 to -0.01"", ""0.00 to 0.49"", ""0.50 or above"", ""NO_OFFICIAL_RELEASE""]",B,2026-09-21

prompt_reconstruction.json

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+{
+  "prompt_reconstruction": {
+    "agent_role": "You are an agent that can predict future events.",
+    "binary_named_output_format": "Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.\nYour prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\n\\boxed{<options[0]>} or \\boxed{<options[1]>}",
+    "guidance": "Do not use any other format. Do not refuse to make a prediction. Do not say \"I cannot predict the future.\" You must make a clear prediction based on the best data currently available, using the box format specified above.",
+    "multiple_choice_multi_output_format": "This is a MULTI-SELECT question: ONE OR MORE of the listed options can be correct.\nYour prediction will be scored on strict equality with the FULL set of correct letters: any extra letter, any missing letter, or any wrong letter scores zero. You must include ALL correct options and NO incorrect options.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\nlisting all correct option(s) you have identified, separated by commas, within the box.\nFor example: \\boxed{A} for a single correct option, or \\boxed{B, C} for multiple correct options.",
+    "multiple_choice_single_output_format": "This is a SINGLE-ANSWER question: exactly ONE of the listed options is correct.\nYour prediction will be scored on strict equality with the unique correct letter; choosing the wrong letter, or selecting more than one letter, scores zero.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\nthe single correct letter inside the box, e.g. \\boxed{A}.\nDo NOT list more than one letter, even if you believe two outcomes are tied — pick the one you find most likely.",
+    "outcomes_block_rule": "Empty for yes_no/binary_named (since options are implicit in output_format). For multiple_choice: '\\n' + 'A. <label>\\nB. <label>\\n...' built from options.",
+    "prompt_template": "{agent_role} The event to be predicted: \"{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}\"\n\nIMPORTANT: Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:\n{output_format}\n{guidance}",
+    "yes_no_output_format": "Your task is to predict whether the event will occur based on your analysis.\nYour prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.\nYour final answer MUST end with this exact format:\n\\boxed{Yes} or \\boxed{No}"
+  }
+}

results/benchmark_manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+{
+  "release_date": "2026-10-06",
+  "dataset": "MaYiding/OracleProto",
+  "split": "test",
+  "rows": 300,
+  "full_points": 528,
+  "sampling_n": 3,
+  "complete_configurations": 27,
+  "resolved_date_range": [
+    "2026-03-12",
+    "2026-09-21"
+  ],
+  "type_counts": {
+    "yes_no": 100,
+    "binary_named": 9,
+    "mc_single": 154,
+    "mc_multi": 37
+  },
+  "source_database_sha256": "67243aeadbab783202d0c715c5dd01cef265ab41bf729248ff0239d6bcb06c97",
+  "csv_sha256": "b5fa948d8c29044823dbc531065390543715b451918da1efb87d90f110c1c6b0",
+  "prompt_recipe_sha256": "7096361043a30bc18d7ed25701ec01caba12483d7dac564754f82896218e94b8",
+  "scoring_contract": {
+    "aggregation": "100*sum(points*mean_trial_credit)/sum(points)",
+    "bootstrap": "paired_question_clusters_stratified_by_question_type",
+    "bootstrap_iterations": 2000,
+    "bootstrap_seed": 20261001,
+    "ci_level": 0.95,
+    "content_policy": "zero_credit_in_denominator",
+    "cutoff": "exclude_question",
+    "diagnostics": "question_mean_then_population_mean",
+    "headline_population": "intersection_of_declared_admissible_questions",
+    "invalid_answer": "zero_credit_in_denominator",
+    "missing_or_infrastructure_error": "incomplete_no_official_score",
+    "multi_credit": "2TP/(2TP+FP+FN)",
+    "name": "points-f1",
+    "pass_at_k": "mean(1-comb(K-c,k)/comb(K,k))_exact_match",
+    "points": {
+      "binary_named": 1,
+      "mc_multi": 3,
+      "mc_single": 2,
+      "yes_no": 1
+    },
+    "single_credit": "exact_set_equality",
+    "vote": "strict_majority_of_complete_answer_sets_invalid_votes_abstain"
+  },
+  "cost_basis": "Public standard online tariffs repriced per request, sum of three repetitions divided by three; forecasting-model inference only. Excludes search, leakage-detector usage, missing usage, and invoice totals.",
+  "leakage_audit": {
+    "source": "author-reported final audit",
+    "auditor": "GPT 6.1 Sol",
+    "reviewed": 10000,
+    "positive_labels": 137,
+    "rate_percent": 1.37,
+    "human_verified_positives": 137,
+    "human_confirmed_leaks": 137,
+    "human_verified_negative_labels": 1000,
+    "human_found_leaks_in_negative_sample": 0
+  },
+  "results_source": "Frozen complete 300-question panel"
+}

results/score_by_type.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+model,bucket,questions,complete_questions,full_points,earned_points_mean,score,exact_at_1,pass_at_3,pass_all_at_3,majority_correct_at_3,vote_score,vote_exact,vote_coverage,vote_gain_pp,pairwise_agreement,agreement_questions,valid_repeat_panel,all_same,all_same_wrong,credit_sd,best_of_n_score,worst_of_n_score,random_score
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+glm-5--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,174.66666666666666,56.7099567099567,0.5670995670995671,0.7402597402597403,0.38961038961038963,0.5714285714285714,57.142857142857146,0.5714285714285714,0.9025974025974026,0.4329004329004462,0.6601731601731602,154,1.0,0.538961038961039,0.14935064935064934,0.20244749698857006,74.02597402597402,38.96103896103896,26.394065890819135
+glm-5--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,69.89752059534668,62.9707392750871,0.23423423423423423,0.4594594594594595,0.08108108108108109,0.16216216216216217,32.56059256059256,0.16216216216216217,0.43243243243243246,-30.410146714494537,0.21621621621621623,37,1.0,0.10810810810810811,0.02702702702702703,0.18592509048568687,81.05322996627345,46.893496893496895,39.95559818905838
+glm-5--reasoning-high,yes_no,100,100,100,64.0,64.0,0.64,0.74,0.54,0.64,64.0,0.64,1.0,0.0,0.8666666666666667,100,1.0,0.8,0.26,0.11547005383792515,74.0,54.0,50.0
+glm-5--reasoning-high,binary_named,9,9,9,6.0,66.66666666666667,0.6666666666666666,0.7777777777777778,0.5555555555555556,0.6666666666666666,66.66666666666667,0.6666666666666666,1.0,0.0,0.8518518518518519,9,1.0,0.7777777777777778,0.2222222222222222,0.12830005981991682,77.77777777777777,55.55555555555556,50.0
+glm-5--reasoning-high,mc_single,154,154,308,172.66666666666666,56.060606060606055,0.5606060606060606,0.7272727272727273,0.3961038961038961,0.5584415584415584,55.84415584415584,0.5584415584415584,0.8961038961038961,-0.21645021645021245,0.6666666666666667,154,1.0,0.551948051948052,0.15584415584415584,0.1912004138225384,72.72727272727273,39.61038961038961,26.394065890819135
+glm-5--reasoning-high,mc_multi,37,37,111,77.92454027454028,70.20228853562188,0.26126126126126126,0.4594594594594595,0.10810810810810811,0.21621621621621623,34.11269661269661,0.21621621621621623,0.40540540540540543,-36.089591922925266,0.22522522522522523,37,1.0,0.13513513513513514,0.02702702702702703,0.16238949913370246,85.27758277758278,55.69034569034569,39.95559818905838
+gpt-5.3-codex--provider-default,yes_no,100,100,100,60.0,60.0,0.6,0.75,0.42,0.63,63.0,0.63,1.0,3.0,0.78,100,1.0,0.67,0.25,0.1905255888325765,75.0,42.0,50.0
+gpt-5.3-codex--provider-default,binary_named,9,9,9,8.0,88.88888888888889,0.8888888888888888,1.0,0.7777777777777778,0.8888888888888888,88.88888888888889,0.8888888888888888,1.0,0.0,0.8518518518518519,9,1.0,0.7777777777777778,0.0,0.12830005981991682,100.0,77.77777777777777,50.0
+gpt-5.3-codex--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,171.33333333333334,55.62770562770564,0.5562770562770563,0.7207792207792207,0.4025974025974026,0.5454545454545454,54.54545454545455,0.5454545454545454,0.935064935064935,-1.0822510822510907,0.7142857142857143,154,1.0,0.6038961038961039,0.2012987012987013,0.18370235837851728,72.07792207792208,40.25974025974026,26.394065890819135
+gpt-5.3-codex--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,65.14470370003329,58.68892225228224,0.17117117117117117,0.2702702702702703,0.10810810810810811,0.13513513513513514,35.36894036894037,0.13513513513513514,0.5945945945945946,-23.319981883341868,0.32432432432432434,37,1.0,0.1891891891891892,0.08108108108108109,0.12426562228506051,71.2820075863554,48.51648274092457,39.95559818905838
+gpt-5.3-codex--reasoning-low,yes_no,100,100,100,67.66666666666667,67.66666666666667,0.6766666666666667,0.84,0.55,0.64,64.0,0.64,1.0,-3.6666666666666714,0.8066666666666668,100,1.0,0.71,0.16,0.16743157806499145,84.0,55.0,50.0
+gpt-5.3-codex--reasoning-low,binary_named,9,9,9,6.666666666666667,74.07407407407408,0.7407407407407408,0.7777777777777778,0.6666666666666666,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,3.7037037037036953,0.925925925925926,9,1.0,0.8888888888888888,0.2222222222222222,0.06415002990995841,77.77777777777777,66.66666666666667,50.0
+gpt-5.3-codex--reasoning-low,mc_single,154,154,308,185.33333333333334,60.173160173160184,0.6017316017316018,0.7467532467532467,0.4675324675324675,0.5909090909090909,59.09090909090909,0.5909090909090909,0.9675324675324676,-1.0822510822510907,0.7554112554112554,154,1.0,0.6493506493506493,0.18181818181818182,0.16120819204645395,74.67532467532467,46.753246753246756,26.394065890819135
+gpt-5.3-codex--reasoning-low,mc_multi,37,37,111,82.09030747030747,73.95523195523195,0.36936936936936937,0.5405405405405406,0.1891891891891892,0.3783783783783784,49.14496914496914,0.3783783783783784,0.5405405405405406,-24.810262810262813,0.32432432432432434,37,1.0,0.21621621621621623,0.02702702702702703,0.12221488064739132,83.93339393339394,61.62955812955813,39.95559818905838
+gpt-5.4--provider-default,yes_no,100,100,100,69.66666666666667,69.66666666666667,0.6966666666666668,0.85,0.54,0.7,70.0,0.7,1.0,0.3333333333333286,0.7933333333333333,100,1.0,0.69,0.15,0.17897858344878398,85.0,54.0,50.0
+gpt-5.4--provider-default,binary_named,9,9,9,6.333333333333333,70.37037037037037,0.7037037037037037,0.8888888888888888,0.4444444444444444,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,7.407407407407405,0.7037037037037037,9,1.0,0.5555555555555556,0.1111111111111111,0.25660011963983365,88.88888888888889,44.44444444444444,50.0
+gpt-5.4--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,182.0,59.09090909090909,0.5909090909090909,0.7727272727272727,0.4090909090909091,0.5909090909090909,59.09090909090909,0.5909090909090909,0.948051948051948,0.0,0.6839826839826839,154,1.0,0.551948051948052,0.14285714285714285,0.20994555243259116,77.27272727272727,40.90909090909091,26.394065890819135
+gpt-5.4--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,71.24615662115662,64.18572668572668,0.26126126126126126,0.4594594594594595,0.02702702702702703,0.2972972972972973,42.45700245700245,0.2972972972972973,0.4864864864864865,-21.728724228724225,0.1981981981981982,37,1.0,0.05405405405405406,0.02702702702702703,0.19133026649523874,79.57733707733709,44.64241464241464,39.95559818905838
+gpt-5.4-high--provider-default,yes_no,100,100,100,74.33333333333333,74.33333333333333,0.7433333333333333,0.85,0.6,0.78,78.0,0.78,1.0,3.6666666666666714,0.8333333333333333,100,1.0,0.75,0.15,0.14433756729740643,85.0,60.0,50.0
+gpt-5.4-high--provider-default,binary_named,9,9,9,7.0,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,0.8888888888888888,0.6666666666666666,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,0.0,0.8518518518518519,9,1.0,0.7777777777777778,0.1111111111111111,0.12830005981991682,88.88888888888889,66.66666666666667,50.0
+gpt-5.4-high--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,200.66666666666666,65.15151515151514,0.6515151515151515,0.7987012987012987,0.5,0.6558441558441559,65.58441558441558,0.6558441558441559,0.9805194805194806,0.4329004329004391,0.7424242424242424,154,1.0,0.6233766233766234,0.12337662337662338,0.1724552752124856,79.87012987012987,50.0,26.394065890819135
+gpt-5.4-high--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,80.58595663595663,72.59996093329427,0.38738738738738737,0.6216216216216216,0.16216216216216217,0.3783783783783784,45.88242088242089,0.3783783783783784,0.5405405405405406,-26.71754005087338,0.30630630630630634,37,1.0,0.1891891891891892,0.02702702702702703,0.14682400681258279,85.83415833415833,59.14753664753665,39.95559818905838
+gpt-oss-120b--provider-default,yes_no,100,100,100,70.0,70.0,0.7,0.87,0.49,0.74,74.0,0.74,0.99,4.0,0.7551020408163265,98,0.98,0.62,0.13,0.21939310229205777,87.0,49.0,50.0
+gpt-oss-120b--provider-default,binary_named,9,9,9,5.333333333333333,59.25925925925925,0.5925925925925926,0.8888888888888888,0.3333333333333333,0.5555555555555556,55.55555555555556,0.5555555555555556,1.0,-3.7037037037036953,0.6296296296296297,9,1.0,0.4444444444444444,0.1111111111111111,0.3207501495497921,88.88888888888889,33.333333333333336,50.0
+gpt-oss-120b--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,192.66666666666666,62.55411255411255,0.6255411255411255,0.7662337662337663,0.45454545454545453,0.6558441558441559,65.58441558441558,0.6558441558441559,0.9285714285714286,3.030303030303031,0.6861471861471862,154,1.0,0.564935064935065,0.11038961038961038,0.17995333065650673,76.62337662337663,45.45454545454545,26.394065890819135
+gpt-oss-120b--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,81.33884171384172,73.27823577823578,0.35135135135135137,0.5135135135135135,0.16216216216216217,0.3783783783783784,56.400686400686396,0.3783783783783784,0.6486486486486487,-16.877549377549386,0.35185185185185186,36,0.972972972972973,0.1891891891891892,0.02702702702702703,0.145997085359494,84.11625911625912,57.970535470535474,39.95559818905838
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-high,yes_no,100,100,100,71.66666666666667,71.66666666666667,0.7166666666666667,0.85,0.56,0.74,74.0,0.74,1.0,2.3333333333333286,0.8066666666666668,100,1.0,0.71,0.15,0.16743157806499145,85.0,56.0,50.0
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-high,binary_named,9,9,9,6.333333333333333,70.37037037037037,0.7037037037037037,0.8888888888888888,0.4444444444444444,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,7.407407407407405,0.75,8,0.8888888888888888,0.5555555555555556,0.1111111111111111,0.25660011963983365,88.88888888888889,44.44444444444444,50.0
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-high,mc_single,154,154,308,187.33333333333334,60.82251082251083,0.6082251082251082,0.7337662337662337,0.4805194805194805,0.6103896103896104,61.03896103896104,0.6103896103896104,0.9545454545454546,0.21645021645021245,0.7467532467532467,154,1.0,0.6428571428571429,0.16233766233766234,0.14621208115841172,73.37662337662337,48.05194805194805,26.394065890819135
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-high,mc_multi,37,37,111,73.54151175621763,66.25361419479066,0.32432432432432434,0.5945945945945946,0.10810810810810811,0.2702702702702703,39.369369369369366,0.2702702702702703,0.4864864864864865,-26.88424482542129,0.26666666666666666,35,0.9459459459459459,0.13513513513513514,0.02702702702702703,0.18712210986402847,82.991107991108,48.544518544518546,39.95559818905838
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-low,yes_no,100,100,100,67.66666666666667,67.66666666666667,0.6766666666666667,0.85,0.46,0.72,72.0,0.72,1.0,4.333333333333329,0.7482993197278911,98,0.98,0.61,0.15,0.22516660498395402,85.0,46.0,50.0
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-low,binary_named,9,9,9,6.333333333333333,70.37037037037037,0.7037037037037037,0.8888888888888888,0.3333333333333333,0.8888888888888888,88.88888888888889,0.8888888888888888,1.0,18.51851851851852,0.6666666666666666,8,0.8888888888888888,0.4444444444444444,0.1111111111111111,0.3207501495497921,88.88888888888889,33.333333333333336,50.0
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-low,mc_single,154,154,308,161.33333333333334,52.38095238095238,0.5238095238095238,0.6948051948051948,0.34415584415584416,0.5324675324675324,53.246753246753244,0.5324675324675324,0.9415584415584416,0.865800865800864,0.6428571428571429,154,1.0,0.4935064935064935,0.14935064935064934,0.20244749698857006,69.48051948051948,34.41558441558441,26.394065890819135
+gpt-oss-120b--reasoning-low,mc_multi,37,37,111,69.30536848772142,62.43726890785714,0.25225225225225223,0.4864864864864865,0.08108108108108109,0.1891891891891892,35.31629031629031,0.1891891891891892,0.4594594594594595,-27.120978591566825,0.21904761904761902,35,0.9459459459459459,0.08108108108108109,0.0,0.22132418631953985,83.34288834288834,43.10678810678811,39.95559818905838
+minimax-m2.5--provider-default,yes_no,100,100,100,65.0,65.0,0.65,0.83,0.46,0.66,66.0,0.66,1.0,1.0,0.7533333333333333,100,1.0,0.63,0.17,0.2136195996001615,83.0,46.0,50.0
+minimax-m2.5--provider-default,binary_named,9,9,9,7.0,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,0.8888888888888888,0.6666666666666666,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,0.0,0.9166666666666666,8,0.8888888888888888,0.7777777777777778,0.1111111111111111,0.12830005981991682,88.88888888888889,66.66666666666667,50.0
+minimax-m2.5--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,179.33333333333334,58.22510822510823,0.5822510822510822,0.7402597402597403,0.4025974025974026,0.6038961038961039,60.38961038961039,0.6038961038961039,0.948051948051948,2.16450216450216,0.6797385620915033,153,0.9935064935064936,0.538961038961039,0.13636363636363635,0.19494944154454896,74.02597402597402,40.25974025974026,26.394065890819135
+minimax-m2.5--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,61.63737096237096,55.52916302916303,0.24324324324324326,0.40540540540540543,0.10810810810810811,0.21621621621621623,28.23977823977824,0.21621621621621623,0.43243243243243246,-27.28938478938479,0.22916666666666666,32,0.8648648648648649,0.10810810810810811,0.0,0.21938501237151325,75.04153504153506,35.26895026895027,39.95559818905838
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--provider-default,yes_no,100,100,100,61.0,61.0,0.61,0.75,0.43,0.65,65.0,0.65,1.0,4.0,0.7912457912457912,99,0.99,0.68,0.25,0.18475208614068023,75.0,43.0,50.0
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--provider-default,binary_named,9,9,9,6.666666666666667,74.07407407407408,0.7407407407407408,0.7777777777777778,0.6666666666666666,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,3.7037037037036953,0.925925925925926,9,1.0,0.8888888888888888,0.2222222222222222,0.06415002990995841,77.77777777777777,66.66666666666667,50.0
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--provider-default,mc_single,154,154,308,181.33333333333334,58.87445887445888,0.5887445887445888,0.7467532467532467,0.4090909090909091,0.6103896103896104,61.03896103896104,0.6103896103896104,0.9415584415584416,2.16450216450216,0.6428571428571429,154,1.0,0.4935064935064935,0.08441558441558442,0.19494944154454896,74.67532467532467,40.90909090909091,26.394065890819135
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--provider-default,mc_multi,37,37,111,72.62263662263662,65.42579875913209,0.26126126126126126,0.4864864864864865,0.08108108108108109,0.21621621621621623,32.51905751905752,0.21621621621621623,0.40540540540540543,-32.906741240074574,0.19444444444444445,36,0.972972972972973,0.08108108108108109,0.0,0.22865225886916798,85.98624598624598,43.44776844776845,39.95559818905838
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--reasoning-none,yes_no,100,100,100,64.66666666666667,64.66666666666667,0.6466666666666667,0.86,0.43,0.65,65.0,0.65,1.0,0.3333333333333286,0.7133333333333333,100,1.0,0.57,0.14,0.24826061575153907,86.0,43.0,50.0
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--reasoning-none,binary_named,9,9,9,6.333333333333333,70.37037037037037,0.7037037037037037,0.8888888888888888,0.4444444444444444,0.7777777777777778,77.77777777777777,0.7777777777777778,1.0,7.407407407407405,0.7037037037037037,9,1.0,0.5555555555555556,0.1111111111111111,0.25660011963983365,88.88888888888889,44.44444444444444,50.0
+qwen3.5-35b-a3b--reasoning-none,mc_single,154,154,308,167.33333333333334,54.329004329004334,0.5432900432900433,0.7207792207792207,0.35064935064935066,0.5584415584415584,55.84415584415584,0.5584415584415584,0.9285714285714286,1.5151515151515085,0.6515151515151515,154,1.0,0.512987012987013,0.16233766233766234,0.21369458015460174,72.07792207792208,35.064935064935064,26.394065890819135
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results/score_summary.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
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