| { |
| "interpretation": { |
| "correlation_warning": "The correlation parameters are Gaussian latent-factor variance components, not Bernoulli Pearson correlations. Same-run phase latent correlation equals task correlation plus the reported within-run increment.", |
| "grid_definition": "The reported MDE is the first tested absolute risk-reduction grid point reaching target power; it is not an exact continuous threshold.", |
| "repository_dependence_warning": "The twelve task clusters come from only three repositories, with four tasks per repository. This simulation has no additional repository-level factor, so unmodeled within-repository dependence can overstate precision; it does not support repository-population inference.", |
| "scope_warning": "Power depends on the simulated baseline phase-opportunity risk, latent task correlation, additional within-run phase correlation, and paired-outcome model; it does not generalize beyond the frozen benchmark suite.", |
| "small_sample_warning": "Twelve task clusters provide limited precision. Wide intervals or non-significant findings are not evidence of equivalence." |
| }, |
| "precision": { |
| "alpha_two_sided": 0.05, |
| "clusters": 12, |
| "estimand": "risk(beforedone) - risk(prompt_only)", |
| "model": "latent-normal phase-opportunity Bernoulli outcomes with a shared task factor, condition-and-repetition-specific run factors for two-stage tasks, and phase residuals", |
| "phase_design": { |
| "schedule_sha256": "sha256:a216d003dc6daa711442a04c11f21926918fc8301ac9afb331618e7fae133296", |
| "source": "validated_confirmatory_task_manifests_and_schedule", |
| "task_phase_design_sha256": "sha256:7e847d21e291500dcffdf2796373ba1d191642ee39a1f081d2d64d6a6e29e2bd", |
| "tasks": [ |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "irrelevant_change", |
| "task_id": "go-irrelevant-error-messages", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:e076a4b1569ffb96b2f627ef32be139c2df022c591b50e8c23d647047489e84c" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 1, |
| "scenario": "premature", |
| "task_id": "go-premature-approx-duration", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:e63e55aaeb866aa8a8e1d7f7f5131a8fcec8f8c36672861994b5cc1218eb9f74" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 1, |
| "scenario": "premature", |
| "task_id": "go-premature-canonical-newlines", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:482932b92568df8f795a9e67f07734144b07428110dd7212c7163a0b5b16fbee" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "relevant_change", |
| "task_id": "go-relevant-case-fold", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:ae95a8ce0d8f29d4b59ab7073bdedca8be3ef2683057b1ef43d81b6119dd10ac" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "irrelevant_change", |
| "task_id": "py-irrelevant-metric-doc-change", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:071fd5551875f1a3d768a182f10886c3714fc699f9b32f436ae8a3c5b64f5161" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 1, |
| "scenario": "premature", |
| "task_id": "py-premature-filesize-rollover", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:98ecc22eadd61596e43682acad727e99a51350c5da0970cc5eb6d1d80de1b467" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "relevant_change", |
| "task_id": "py-relevant-naturaldate-timezone", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:238f480938482980deed967c0eaf3571b3daa651deb2be37a38d6565c8f5f28e" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "relevant_change", |
| "task_id": "py-relevant-negative-fraction", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:84ab34892c6af709d8dee4b8167f3ff13c4285dbf8e495e4feb277028b332da5" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "irrelevant_change", |
| "task_id": "ts-irrelevant-baseurl-join", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:ca34264d0615bf0454e7f9b152768eb00aea00051409db02a61cc44e54c37385" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "irrelevant_change", |
| "task_id": "ts-irrelevant-fragment-query", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:9494efeeeda60b6b0738de520a73a6a45a5be8ad8ba45387d1900ff7e1b73ccc" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 1, |
| "scenario": "premature", |
| "task_id": "ts-premature-route-whitespace", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:122a675284590a38038b1f3cb2a31d1832bcc18890217833411cdee4ce6d4729" |
| }, |
| { |
| "phase_count": 2, |
| "scenario": "relevant_change", |
| "task_id": "ts-relevant-array-query", |
| "task_manifest_sha256": "sha256:d91b9062bfc6644a5655e26e3336263fb36c85ec771aa462f1a6f9c3045ab928" |
| } |
| ] |
| }, |
| "phase_opportunities_per_condition": 60, |
| "repetitions_per_condition_per_cluster": 3, |
| "seed": 2026072302, |
| "simulations_per_grid_point": 4000, |
| "target_power": 0.8, |
| "task_condition_denominators": [ |
| 6, |
| 3, |
| 3, |
| 6, |
| 6, |
| 3, |
| 6, |
| 6, |
| 6, |
| 6, |
| 3, |
| 6 |
| ], |
| "task_counts_by_phase_count": { |
| "1": 4, |
| "2": 8 |
| }, |
| "task_phase_counts": [ |
| 2, |
| 1, |
| 1, |
| 2, |
| 2, |
| 1, |
| 2, |
| 2, |
| 2, |
| 2, |
| 1, |
| 2 |
| ], |
| "test": "pool phase opportunities within each task-condition, form twelve paired task risk differences, and compare their absolute studentized mean with a scenario-specific empirical null critical value", |
| "version": "0.2.1-prepilot" |
| }, |
| "scenarios": [ |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.2, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1589388479418643, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.2, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.04975, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": 0.0007430555555555555, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.1035, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.04912847222222222, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.287, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.10194791666666667, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.1 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.6225, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.14894444444444443, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.05000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
| "estimated_power": 0.9805, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.20002083333333331, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.0, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.0, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.0 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.2, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1999999999999997, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.2, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.04775, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.0006458333333333332, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.09375, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.050659722222222224, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.26425, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.09951388888888889, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.1 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.602, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.15185069444444443, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.05000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
| "estimated_power": 0.9725, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.19953819444444443, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.2, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.0, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.2, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1589388479418643, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.2, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.04875, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": 0.0010381944444444445, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.09475, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.0486875, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.2815, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.09946180555555556, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.1 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.61675, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.14932638888888888, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.05000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
| "estimated_power": 0.8965, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.20121527777777778, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.3, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.3, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.0 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.2, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1521103473958814, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.2, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.0475, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": 0.0020173611111111113, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.10475, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.05235416666666667, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.28375, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.10099652777777778, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.1 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.59425, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.14847916666666666, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.05000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
| "estimated_power": 0.88225, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.20080902777777776, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.5, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.3, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.2, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.152110347395881, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": null, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.048, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.00035416666666666664, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.10425, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.049215277777777774, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.31475, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.09911111111111111, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.1 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.5785, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.14973958333333334, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.05000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
| "estimated_power": 0.68325, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.1997013888888889, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.6, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.6, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.0 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.2, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1521103473958814, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": null, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.0435, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.0002430555555555555, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.09075, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.04988541666666667, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.2765, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.10124999999999999, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.1 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.53425, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.1506701388888889, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.05000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
| "estimated_power": 0.64725, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.19916666666666666, |
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| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.8, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.6, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.4, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.2384775342091396, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.3, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
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| }, |
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| }, |
| { |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.10000000000000003 |
| }, |
| { |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.050000000000000044 |
| }, |
| { |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.0, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.0, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.0 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.4, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1915070393259297, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.3, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.4 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
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| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.30000000000000004 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.32775, |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.25 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
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| }, |
| { |
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| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.3, |
| "estimated_power": 0.91875, |
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| }, |
| { |
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| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.2, |
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| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.4, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.2444115437169923, |
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| }, |
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| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.2, |
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| "treatment_risk": 0.2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.25, |
| "estimated_power": 0.8335, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.2544548611111111, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.15000000000000002 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.3, |
| "estimated_power": 0.949, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.3013263888888889, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.10000000000000003 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.35, |
| "estimated_power": 0.99175, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.34911458333333334, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.050000000000000044 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.4, |
| "estimated_power": 0.99875, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.4022847222222222, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.0 |
| } |
| ], |
| "same_run_phase_latent_correlation": 0.3, |
| "task_latent_correlation": 0.3, |
| "within_run_phase_increment": 0.0 |
| }, |
| { |
| "baseline_risk": 0.4, |
| "empirical_two_sided_critical_value": 2.1712405933672376, |
| "minimum_grid_effect_at_target_power": 0.25, |
| "power_curve": [ |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.0, |
| "estimated_power": 0.04925, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -9.374999999999976e-05, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.4 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.05, |
| "estimated_power": 0.086, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.04946527777777778, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.35000000000000003 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.1, |
| "estimated_power": 0.1905, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.10151388888888889, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.30000000000000004 |
| }, |
| { |
| "absolute_risk_reduction": 0.15, |
| "estimated_power": 0.376, |
| "mean_observed_risk_difference": -0.15206944444444445, |
| "treatment_risk": 0.25 |
| }, |
| { |
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|
|
