FairMedAgent / experiments /robustness.json
Rohithreddybc's picture
Add robustness.json
730ad19 verified
Raw History Blame Contribute Delete
29.7 kB
{
"meta": {
"seed": 42,
"B_main_bootstrap": 5000,
"B_small_bootstrap": 600,
"B_item6": 2000,
"n_null_sims": 2000,
"n_mcnemar_sims": 2000,
"models_loaded": {
"A": "floor16",
"B": "floor16_sonnet",
"C": "floor16_ollama",
"D": "floor16_mistral",
"E": "floor16_qwen3",
"F": "floor16_phi3"
},
"extra_t0_dirs_skipped": [
[
"floor16_ollama_t0",
0
],
[
"floor16_mistral_t0",
0
],
[
"floor16_qwen3_t0",
0
],
[
"floor16_phi3_t0",
1
]
],
"canonical_vignette_count": 16,
"split_enumeration": {
"R=3": {
"n_splits": 2100,
"replicates_used_per_split": 6,
"replicates_unused_per_split": 4
},
"R=5": {
"n_splits": 126,
"replicates_used_per_split": 10,
"replicates_unused_per_split": 0
}
},
"runtime_seconds": {
"bootstrap_items_1_2_3_5": 131.5,
"leave_one_vignette_out": 0.49,
"item6_majority_vote_bootstrap": 20.4,
"item7_null_simulation": 190.4,
"item8_mcnemar_simulation": 4.9,
"total": 348.8
}
},
"verification": {
"checks": [
{
"label": "pooled floor",
"computed": 0.087,
"published": 0.087
},
{
"label": "pooled numerator",
"computed": 374,
"published": 374
},
{
"label": "pooled denominator",
"computed": 4320,
"published": 4320
},
{
"label": "escalate_icu floor",
"computed": 0.022,
"published": 0.022
},
{
"label": "cs_caution floor",
"computed": 0.179,
"published": 0.179
},
{
"label": "R=3 floor",
"computed": 0.063,
"published": 0.063
},
{
"label": "R=5 floor",
"computed": 0.053,
"published": 0.053
}
],
"mismatches": [],
"ok": true
},
"item1_per_model_action_floors": {
"B_values": [
600,
5000
],
"models": {
"A": {
"actions": {
"admit": {
"num": 102,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.14166666666666666,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.05138888888888889,
0.23333333333333334
],
"B=5000": [
0.05138888888888889,
0.24166666666666667
]
}
},
"any_opioid": {
"num": 18,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.025,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0625
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0625
]
}
},
"cs_caution": {
"num": 129,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.17916666666666667,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.06944444444444445,
0.29444444444444445
],
"B=5000": [
0.06388888888888888,
0.29583333333333334
]
}
},
"escalate_icu": {
"num": 16,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.022222222222222223,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.06666666666666667
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.06666666666666667
]
}
},
"high_acuity": {
"num": 55,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0763888888888889,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.16944444444444445
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.17083333333333334
]
}
},
"referral": {
"num": 54,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.075,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0125,
0.16666666666666666
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.16666666666666666
]
}
}
},
"pooled": {
"num": 374,
"den": 4320,
"floor": 0.08657407407407407,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.05648148148148148,
0.11712962962962963
],
"B=5000": [
0.05578703703703704,
0.11689814814814815
]
}
}
},
"B": {
"actions": {
"admit": {
"num": 10,
"den": 240,
"floor": 0.041666666666666664,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.10416666666666667
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.10416666666666667
]
}
},
"any_opioid": {
"num": 8,
"den": 240,
"floor": 0.03333333333333333,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.1
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.1
]
}
},
"cs_caution": {
"num": 48,
"den": 240,
"floor": 0.2,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.1,
0.3333333333333333
],
"B=5000": [
0.06666666666666667,
0.3333333333333333
]
}
},
"escalate_icu": {
"num": 5,
"den": 240,
"floor": 0.020833333333333332,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0625
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0625
]
}
},
"high_acuity": {
"num": 16,
"den": 240,
"floor": 0.06666666666666667,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.16666666666666666
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.16666666666666666
]
}
},
"referral": {
"num": 9,
"den": 240,
"floor": 0.0375,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.1125
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.1125
]
}
}
},
"pooled": {
"num": 96,
"den": 1440,
"floor": 0.06666666666666667,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.03888888888888889,
0.09513888888888888
],
"B=5000": [
0.03819444444444445,
0.09583333333333334
]
}
}
},
"C": {
"actions": {
"admit": {
"num": 159,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.22083333333333333,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.10555555555555556,
0.34305555555555556
],
"B=5000": [
0.10972222222222222,
0.3388888888888889
]
}
},
"any_opioid": {
"num": 65,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.09027777777777778,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.022222222222222223,
0.17777777777777778
],
"B=5000": [
0.022222222222222223,
0.18055555555555555
]
}
},
"cs_caution": {
"num": 107,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.1486111111111111,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.059722222222222225,
0.24722222222222223
],
"B=5000": [
0.058333333333333334,
0.24861111111111112
]
}
},
"escalate_icu": {
"num": 43,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.059722222222222225,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0125,
0.11666666666666667
],
"B=5000": [
0.0125,
0.11666666666666667
]
}
},
"high_acuity": {
"num": 316,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.4388888888888889,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.39444444444444443,
0.4791666666666667
],
"B=5000": [
0.39305555555555555,
0.4777777777777778
]
}
},
"referral": {
"num": 238,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.33055555555555555,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.2375,
0.41944444444444445
],
"B=5000": [
0.22916666666666666,
0.4263888888888889
]
}
}
},
"pooled": {
"num": 928,
"den": 4320,
"floor": 0.21481481481481482,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.17824074074074073,
0.24768518518518517
],
"B=5000": [
0.18171296296296297,
0.24837962962962962
]
}
}
},
"D": {
"actions": {
"admit": {
"num": 33,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.04583333333333333,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.125
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.125
]
}
},
"any_opioid": {
"num": 40,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.05555555555555555,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.13333333333333333
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.14444444444444443
]
}
},
"cs_caution": {
"num": 106,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.14722222222222223,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.05555555555555555,
0.26805555555555555
],
"B=5000": [
0.044444444444444446,
0.2625
]
}
},
"escalate_icu": {
"num": 41,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.05694444444444444,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.1361111111111111
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.1388888888888889
]
}
},
"high_acuity": {
"num": 191,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.2652777777777778,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.1638888888888889,
0.3680555555555556
],
"B=5000": [
0.1527777777777778,
0.3763888888888889
]
}
},
"referral": {
"num": 0,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0
]
}
}
},
"pooled": {
"num": 411,
"den": 4320,
"floor": 0.09513888888888888,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.06898148148148148,
0.12685185185185185
],
"B=5000": [
0.06712962962962964,
0.12523148148148147
]
}
}
},
"E": {
"actions": {
"admit": {
"num": 25,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.034722222222222224,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.10416666666666667
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.10416666666666667
]
}
},
"any_opioid": {
"num": 9,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0125,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0375
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0375
]
}
},
"cs_caution": {
"num": 75,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.10416666666666667,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0125,
0.20833333333333334
],
"B=5000": [
0.0125,
0.20833333333333334
]
}
},
"escalate_icu": {
"num": 0,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0
]
}
},
"high_acuity": {
"num": 0,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0
]
}
},
"referral": {
"num": 0,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0,
0.0
],
"B=5000": [
0.0,
0.0
]
}
}
},
"pooled": {
"num": 109,
"den": 4320,
"floor": 0.025231481481481483,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.0020833333333333333,
0.05555555555555555
],
"B=5000": [
0.0020833333333333333,
0.05555555555555555
]
}
}
},
"F": {
"actions": {
"admit": {
"num": 225,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.3125,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.2111111111111111,
0.4111111111111111
],
"B=5000": [
0.20833333333333334,
0.4111111111111111
]
}
},
"any_opioid": {
"num": 80,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.1111111111111111,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.034722222222222224,
0.21666666666666667
],
"B=5000": [
0.029166666666666667,
0.20694444444444443
]
}
},
"cs_caution": {
"num": 127,
"den": 702,
"floor": 0.18091168091168092,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.07735583684950774,
0.30158730158730157
],
"B=5000": [
0.0763888888888889,
0.28973277074542897
]
}
},
"escalate_icu": {
"num": 45,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.0625,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.025,
0.1125
],
"B=5000": [
0.025,
0.1125
]
}
},
"high_acuity": {
"num": 223,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.30972222222222223,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.19722222222222222,
0.41388888888888886
],
"B=5000": [
0.19722222222222222,
0.41805555555555557
]
}
},
"referral": {
"num": 320,
"den": 720,
"floor": 0.4444444444444444,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.39305555555555555,
0.49444444444444446
],
"B=5000": [
0.3861111111111111,
0.49444444444444446
]
}
}
},
"pooled": {
"num": 1020,
"den": 4302,
"floor": 0.23709902370990238,
"ci": {
"B=600": [
0.19595536959553697,
0.286512928022362
],
"B=5000": [
0.19409576940957693,
0.28379629629629627
]
}
}
}
}
},
"item2_modelA_cs_caution_vs_escalate_icu": {
"observed": {
"cs_caution": 0.17916666666666667,
"escalate_icu": 0.022222222222222223,
"difference": 0.15694444444444444,
"ratio": 8.0625
},
"difference_ci_B5000": [
0.05138888888888889,
0.26944444444444443
],
"ratio": {
"n_resamples": 5000,
"n_icu_floor_zero": 1784,
"fraction_icu_floor_zero": 0.3568,
"bounded": false,
"finite_subset_ci": [
2.270833333333333,
12.6875
],
"note": "ratio CI is not a valid bounded interval: in 35.7% of resamples the escalate_icu floor is 0 (no disagreeing pair among the 16 resampled vignettes), making cs_caution/escalate_icu undefined (division by zero) rather than merely large. The finite_subset_ci excludes those draws and understates the true spread."
}
},
"item3_pairwise_model_pooled_floor_diffs": [
{
"pair": "A-B",
"observed_diff": 0.0199074074074074,
"ci_B5000": [
0.001388888888888884,
0.037500000000000006
]
},
{
"pair": "A-C",
"observed_diff": -0.12824074074074077,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.1703703703703704,
-0.0824074074074074
]
},
{
"pair": "A-D",
"observed_diff": -0.008564814814814817,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.05717592592592592,
0.03680555555555555
]
},
{
"pair": "A-E",
"observed_diff": 0.06134259259259259,
"ci_B5000": [
0.028240740740740736,
0.09444444444444444
]
},
{
"pair": "A-F",
"observed_diff": -0.1505249496358283,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.21269661397799472,
-0.09065921267179128
]
},
{
"pair": "B-C",
"observed_diff": -0.14814814814814814,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.1935185185185185,
-0.10115740740740739
]
},
{
"pair": "B-D",
"observed_diff": -0.028472222222222218,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.07199074074074073,
0.011805555555555555
]
},
{
"pair": "B-E",
"observed_diff": 0.041435185185185186,
"ci_B5000": [
0.00856481481481481,
0.0736111111111111
]
},
{
"pair": "B-F",
"observed_diff": -0.17043235704323573,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.2295859538784067,
-0.11177800974251913
]
},
{
"pair": "C-D",
"observed_diff": 0.11967592592592594,
"ci_B5000": [
0.0662037037037037,
0.1685185185185185
]
},
{
"pair": "C-E",
"observed_diff": 0.18958333333333333,
"ci_B5000": [
0.13634259259259257,
0.2333333333333333
]
},
{
"pair": "C-F",
"observed_diff": -0.02228420889508756,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.058011482254697266,
0.011846234309623449
]
},
{
"pair": "D-E",
"observed_diff": 0.0699074074074074,
"ci_B5000": [
0.04236111111111111,
0.10162037037037037
]
},
{
"pair": "D-F",
"observed_diff": -0.1419601348210135,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.2001733689756702,
-0.0888178496868476
]
},
{
"pair": "E-F",
"observed_diff": -0.21186754222842089,
"ci_B5000": [
-0.26700736488053817,
-0.15550046392948272
]
}
],
"item4_leave_one_vignette_out": {
"A": {
"n_deletions": 16,
"min_pooled_floor": 0.08,
"max_pooled_floor": 0.09234567901234568,
"cs_minus_icu_min": 0.1303703703703704,
"cs_minus_icu_max": 0.16740740740740742
},
"B": {
"n_deletions": 16,
"min_pooled_floor": 0.05925925925925926,
"max_pooled_floor": 0.07111111111111111
},
"C": {
"n_deletions": 16,
"min_pooled_floor": 0.2074074074074074,
"max_pooled_floor": 0.22296296296296297
},
"D": {
"n_deletions": 16,
"min_pooled_floor": 0.08493827160493828,
"max_pooled_floor": 0.10148148148148148
},
"E": {
"n_deletions": 16,
"min_pooled_floor": 0.013333333333333334,
"max_pooled_floor": 0.02691358024691358
},
"F": {
"n_deletions": 16,
"min_pooled_floor": 0.22271825396825398,
"max_pooled_floor": 0.24776785714285715
}
},
"item5_excluding_cs_caution": {
"excluded": "cs_caution",
"models": {
"A": {
"num": 245,
"den": 3600,
"floor": 0.06805555555555555,
"ci_B5000": [
0.03638888888888889,
0.10138888888888889
]
},
"B": {
"num": 48,
"den": 1200,
"floor": 0.04,
"ci_B5000": [
0.015,
0.07
]
},
"C": {
"num": 821,
"den": 3600,
"floor": 0.22805555555555557,
"ci_B5000": [
0.18472222222222223,
0.2713888888888889
]
},
"D": {
"num": 305,
"den": 3600,
"floor": 0.08472222222222223,
"ci_B5000": [
0.05305555555555556,
0.11805555555555555
]
},
"E": {
"num": 34,
"den": 3600,
"floor": 0.009444444444444445,
"ci_B5000": [
0.0,
0.028333333333333332
]
},
"F": {
"num": 893,
"den": 3600,
"floor": 0.24805555555555556,
"ci_B5000": [
0.20805555555555555,
0.2891666666666667
]
}
},
"modelA_majority_vote_excl_cs_caution": {
"curve": {
"1": {
"flips": 245,
"total": 3600,
"rate": 0.06805555555555555
},
"3": {
"flips": 7270,
"total": 168000,
"rate": 0.04327380952380953
},
"5": {
"flips": 321,
"total": 10080,
"rate": 0.03184523809523809
}
},
"reduction_1_minus_f5_f1": 0.532069970845481
}
},
"item6_majority_vote_reduction": {
"B": 2000,
"models": {
"A": {
"n_reps": 10,
"f1_observed": 0.08657407407407407,
"f5_observed": 0.05257936507936508,
"reduction_observed": 0.3926661573720397,
"reduction_ci": [
0.1809421841541755,
0.6383075523202912
],
"n_valid_resamples": 2000,
"n_splits_R1": 45,
"n_splits_R5": 126
},
"C": {
"n_reps": 10,
"f1_observed": 0.21481481481481482,
"f5_observed": 0.1130952380952381,
"reduction_observed": 0.4735221674876847,
"reduction_ci": [
0.3057142857142857,
0.6463628396143734
],
"n_valid_resamples": 2000,
"n_splits_R1": 45,
"n_splits_R5": 126
},
"D": {
"n_reps": 10,
"f1_observed": 0.09513888888888888,
"f5_observed": 0.08779761904761904,
"reduction_observed": 0.07716371220020857,
"reduction_ci": [
-0.2276785714285714,
0.4189920866305705
],
"n_valid_resamples": 2000,
"n_splits_R1": 45,
"n_splits_R5": 126
},
"E": {
"n_reps": 10,
"f1_observed": 0.025231481481481483,
"f5_observed": 0.019345238095238096,
"reduction_observed": 0.23328964613368286,
"reduction_ci": [
0.017857142857142905,
1.0
],
"n_valid_resamples": 1977,
"n_splits_R1": 45,
"n_splits_R5": 126
},
"F": {
"n_reps": 10,
"f1_observed": 0.23709902370990238,
"f5_observed": 0.15236907730673316,
"reduction_observed": 0.35736100924160197,
"reduction_ci": [
0.11130989141566139,
0.6216388034712265
],
"n_valid_resamples": 2000,
"n_splits_R1": 45,
"n_splits_R5": 126
}
}
},
"item7_null_simulation_sensitivity": {
"observed_R5_floor": 0.053,
"n_cells": 96,
"plugin": {
"n_sims": 2000,
"mean": 0.04807886904761902,
"ci_2.5_97.5": [
0.025049603174603176,
0.07341269841269842
]
},
"jeffreys": {
"n_sims": 2000,
"mean": 0.055382316468253985,
"ci_2.5_97.5": [
0.030257936507936508,
0.08308531746031746
]
}
},
"item8_mcnemar_simulation": {
"null": {
"16": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.078,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.07719812500000017,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.0,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.0
},
"50": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.07634000000000035,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.0770608,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.0,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.0045
},
"100": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.07884000000000024,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.07820790000000008,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.0,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.0135
},
"300": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.07762666666666664,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.07790656666666677,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.0,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.029
}
},
"uniform": {
"16": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.12303125,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11585437500000008,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.007134375000000042,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.0035
},
"50": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.12170999999999958,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11545040000000005,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.007084399999999943,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.146
},
"100": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.12067500000000014,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11503334999999974,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.007078549999999994,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.4415
},
"300": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.12211000000000043,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11507104999999995,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.007086916666666667,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.944
}
},
"heterogeneous": {
"16": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.11665625,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.10963875,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.006083750000000046,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.0
},
"50": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.11733999999999982,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11086419999999979,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.006101000000000001,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.015
},
"100": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.11704500000000019,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11063449999999994,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.006088499999999991,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.021
},
"300": {
"mean_raw_flip_rate": 0.11706166666666681,
"mean_floor_expectation": 0.11050250000000005,
"mean_delta2_excess": 0.006087966666666683,
"mcnemar_rejection_rate": 0.0525
}
}
}
}