Datasets:
File size: 2,245 Bytes
f9b150b | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 | # Belief data and label semantics
## What a row represents
`dataset/Belief/source/data.parquet` contains 1,810,609 wallet-market records. A row summarizes a wallet's held outcomes in one market and assigns a dominant outcome (`stance_outcome`) plus a position-derived score (`confidence`).
## Source columns
| Column | Meaning supported by the release |
|---|---|
| `wallet` | Pseudonymous wallet address. |
| `market_id` | Market identifier. |
| `question`, `market_slug`, `event_slug` | Human-readable market metadata. |
| `n_outcomes`, `positive_outcomes` | Outcome metadata. |
| `total_hold_amt` | Total held amount used by the label calculation. |
| `stance_outcome` | Outcome selected as the wallet's stance. |
| `stance_hold_amt` | Amount held on `stance_outcome`. |
| `second_hold_amt` | Amount held on the second side/outcome. |
| `confidence` | Position-derived normalized holding imbalance. |
| `label_status`, `label_status_v2` | Released label-status fields. |
| `stance_first_block`, `stance_last_block` | First and last block associated with the stance. |
| `stance_first_tx_hash`, `stance_last_tx_hash` | Corresponding transaction hashes. |
## Verified confidence formula
Direct numerical validation over all source rows gives:
\[
\text{confidence}=2\frac{\text{stance\_hold\_amt}}{\text{total\_hold\_amt}}-1.
\]
For a two-sided market, if `stance_hold_amt = H_max`, `second_hold_amt = H_min`, and `total_hold_amt = H_max + H_min`, this is equivalent to:
\[
\text{confidence}=\frac{H_{\max}-H_{\min}}{H_{\max}+H_{\min}}.
\]
Examples:
| Holdings | Confidence |
|---|---:|
| 50 / 50 | 0.0 |
| 60 / 40 | 0.2 |
| 75 / 25 | 0.5 |
| 90 / 10 | 0.8 |
| 100 / 0 | 1.0 |
This is best interpreted as **position-derived confidence** or **normalized position imbalance**. It is not a directly reported belief probability.
## Model-ready split columns
`dataset/Belief/splits/*.parquet` and `benchmark/Belief/direct/*.parquet` contain:
```text
sample_id, wallet, market_id, split, system_prompt, input_text,
label_choice, label_confidence, event_slug, question,
stance_first_block, stance_last_block
```
Profile adds `profile_generator_model` and `generated_profile`. Retrieval adds `retrieval_method` and `retrieved_support`.
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