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pretty_name: StableEval Arena
license: apache-2.0
language:
- en
task_categories:
- tabular-classification
- time-series-forecasting
tags:
- agentic-ai
- evaluation
- trustworthiness
- stablecoin
- benchmark
size_categories:
- n<1K
configs:
- config_name: stableeval_120_enriched_cases
data_files:
- split: train
path: data/stableeval_120_enriched/case_list.csv
- config_name: stableeval_120_enriched_labels
data_files:
- split: train
path: data/stableeval_120_enriched/labels.csv
- config_name: stableeval_507_natural_cases
data_files:
- split: train
path: data/stableeval_507_natural/case_list.csv
- config_name: stableeval_507_natural_labels
data_files:
- split: train
path: data/stableeval_507_natural/labels.csv
- config_name: stableeval_507_natural_leaderboard
data_files:
- split: train
path: results/stableeval_507_natural/final_tables/stableeval_507_natural_v6_leaderboard.csv
---
# StableEval Arena
StableEval Arena is a historical-replay benchmark for evaluating cost-aware, trustworthy agentic AI systems on stablecoin risk prediction. Each case gives a frozen 30-day lookback packet for USDT, USDC, or DAI and hides the next 7-day horizon labels.
GitHub repository: https://github.com/SeanWan514/StableEval-Arena
Hugging Face dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/SeanWan05/stableeval-arena
## Benchmark Blocks
| Block | Role | Contents |
|---|---|---|
| `StableEval-120-Enriched` | Stress-enriched rare-risk diagnostic | 120 cases, six systems plus baselines, final tables, ablations |
| `StableEval-507-Natural` | Natural-distribution robustness/scaling | 507 cases, baselines, four native/framework-level agents, two adapter-based `-Claw` extensions |
## Task
Inputs are lookback-only prompt packets. The hidden horizon is used only for labels and evaluation.
- Lookback: frozen 30-day historical window.
- Horizon: hidden next 7 days.
- Classification target: `stable`, `watch`, or `stress`.
- Auxiliary targets: depeg probability and maximum absolute dollar-peg deviation in basis points.
## Dataset Contents
```text
data/stableeval_120_enriched/
data/stableeval_507_natural/
results/stableeval_120_enriched/
results/stableeval_507_natural/
schemas/
docs/
```
The package includes prompt packets, labels, canonical result tables, raw/calibrated prediction JSONL files, execution metadata, ablation summaries, stress/audit summaries, checksums, and schemas. It excludes raw vendor snapshots, full hourly-window dumps, attempt-level logs, dry-run outputs, and superseded v2-v5 progress leaderboards.
## Label Distributions
- `StableEval-120-Enriched`: {'stable': 54, 'stress': 21, 'watch': 45}
- `StableEval-507-Natural`: {'stable': 441, 'stress': 21, 'watch': 45}
## Systems Evaluated
Baselines: `always_stable`, `historical_persistence`, `threshold_rule`, `simple_ml_softmax_logistic`.
Native/framework-level agents: `nanobot_qwen_507`, `langgraph_qwen_507`, `hermes_ai_qwen_507`, `evoagentx_qwen_507`.
Adapter-based `-Claw` extensions: `openclaw_adapter_qwen_507`, `nanoclaw_adapter_qwen_507`.
OpenClaw/NanoClaw native CMDOP execution was not verified in this release; cite those systems as adapter-based extensions.
## Main Result Files
- 120 main leaderboard: `results/stableeval_120_enriched/final_tables/validation_120_full_leaderboard.csv`
- 120 metrics: `results/stableeval_120_enriched/metrics/prediction_quality_by_platform.csv`
- 507 v6 leaderboard: `results/stableeval_507_natural/final_tables/stableeval_507_natural_v6_leaderboard.csv`
- 507 stress summary: `results/stableeval_507_natural/stress_audits/stress_recall_summary_from_v6.csv`
- 507 cost/reliability summary: `results/stableeval_507_natural/cost_logs/cost_reliability_summary_from_v6.csv`
## Recommended Use
- Reproduce paper-facing saved-output evaluations.
- Compare new agents against the released cases and labels.
- Study cost/reliability tradeoffs and structured-output validity.
- Audit stress recall and false alarms under a common benchmark protocol.
This dataset is not validated for live trading, financial advice, regulatory compliance, or automated treasury execution.
## Limitations
- Stress cases are rare, especially in the natural 507-case distribution.
- The 120-case block is intentionally stress-enriched and is not a deployment prevalence estimate.
- All released agent results use a common OpenRouter-hosted Qwen backend; this isolates platform/workflow differences but is not a broad foundation-model comparison.
- Prompt packets and case metadata contain processed/derived market data and require redistribution review.
- Current agents do not solve stablecoin stress prediction; weak stress recall is a central trustworthiness finding.
## Citation
See `CITATION.cff`. No DOI is assigned in this local package; add one only after a public archival DOI exists.
## License And Redistribution
See `LICENSE` and `docs/redistribution_notice.md`. Raw vendor snapshots are not included. Processed prompt packets, case metadata, and labels are included for academic reproducibility but may remain subject to upstream provider terms.
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