synthstats-demonstrations / disease-spread /disease-spread-program-summary.csv
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State the dugong reference fit with lam's prior folded onto lam > 0, and each score's Monte Carlo standard error
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program_id,role,outcome,failure,heldout_log_score,avg_heldout_log_score,covered_count,total,empirical_coverage,program_mcse
01-reference,Reference,scored,,-45.6085,-2.2804258123505545,19,20,0.95,0.04521463403743604
02-floor-model,Floor model,scored,,-262.1291,-13.106456292782491,4,20,0.2,0.5573501725802101
03-single-attempt-1,Single attempt 1,scored,,-59.9733,-2.9986653797632874,17,20,0.85,0.2543976424936718
04-single-attempt-2,Single attempt 2,scored,,-59.8279,-2.9913950295952376,17,20,0.85,0.23922578473664005
05-single-attempt-3,Single attempt 3,scored,,-60.0128,-3.0006385668976967,17,20,0.85,0.2010218294838523
06-single-attempt-4,Single attempt 4,failed,failed at model build,,,,,,
07-loop-proposal-1,Loop proposal 1 (round 1),scored,,-59.9324,-2.9966213123467895,17,20,0.85,0.1300807458139151
08-loop-proposal-2,Loop proposal 2 (round 1),failed,failed at model build,,,,,,
09-loop-proposal-3,Loop proposal 3 (round 2),scored,,-60.5719,-3.028594526920986,19,20,0.95,0.07938006662408244
10-loop-proposal-4,Loop proposal 4 (round 2),scored,,-60.7518,-3.0375910171459215,19,20,0.95,0.1382509126924974