Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:53.971023+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T04:33:06.967606+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
-  "window_reference_time": "2026-09-18T04:26:49.116049+00:00",
+  "window_reference_time": "2026-09-18T04:33:02.477771+00:00",
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
     "prequential-v1": 8381

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:46.090043+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.906715+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,17 +1,23 @@
 {
-  "status": "ok",
+  "status": "partial",
   "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
   "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-  "started_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.008948+00:00",
-  "finished_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:54.006738+00:00",
+  "started_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:58.898762+00:00",
+  "finished_at": "2026-09-18T04:33:06.996163+00:00",
   "data_source": "ts_bench",
   "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-  "task_count": 1,
-  "issued_tasks": 1,
-  "issued_forecasts": 12,
-  "resolved_forecasts": 12,
+  "task_count": 3,
+  "issued_tasks": 0,
+  "issued_forecasts": 0,
+  "resolved_forecasts": 0,
   "pending_tasks": 8,
-  "failed_forecasts": [],
+  "failed_forecasts": [
+    {
+      "model": "*",
+      "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+      "error": "Source is stale: first target period already started"
+    }
+  ],
   "models": {
     "Chronos-2": {
       "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -19,18 +25,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.714392+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.090255+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597075+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TiRex": {
       "model": "TiRex",
@@ -38,18 +34,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.716314+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.217824+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597095+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TimesFM-2.5": {
       "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -57,18 +43,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.718837+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.204058+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597100+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Toto-1.0": {
       "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -76,18 +52,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.720363+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.232418+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597105+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Moirai-2.0": {
       "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -95,18 +61,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.721919+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.131544+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597109+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Chronos-Bolt": {
       "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -114,18 +70,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.724417+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.104174+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597114+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TabPFN-TS": {
       "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -133,18 +79,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.726249+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.188911+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597118+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Sundial": {
       "model": "Sundial",
@@ -152,18 +88,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.729344+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.174005+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597129+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Moving-Average": {
       "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -171,18 +97,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.730514+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.145903+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597135+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "ETS": {
       "model": "ETS",
@@ -190,18 +106,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.731975+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.117672+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597139+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "ARIMA": {
       "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -209,18 +115,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.733795+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.075717+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597143+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Seasonal-Naive": {
       "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -228,18 +124,8 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:26:45.735281+00:00",
-      "resolved_tasks": [
-        {
-          "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
-          "task_id": "future-22db2c952d5059c00b16",
-          "issued_at": "2026-09-17T21:59:28.445765+00:00",
-          "resolved_at": "2026-09-18T04:25:41.160308+00:00",
-          "target_end": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00",
-          "prediction_length": 24,
-          "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        }
-      ]
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T04:32:59.597147+00:00",
+      "resolved_tasks": []
     }
   },
   "skipped_models": [],
@@ -263,7 +149,7 @@
     "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
   },
   "push_status": "ok",
-  "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T04:27:12.323277+00:00",
+  "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T04:33:18.150692+00:00",
   "push_detail": "HF Hub API",
   "canonical_history_rows": 30769,
   "latest_scored_release_time": "2026-09-18T03:55:00+00:00"

results/publication_status.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"push_status": "ok", "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T04:27:12.323277+00:00"}
+{"push_status": "ok", "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T04:33:18.150692+00:00"}