Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:52.925597+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:38.631704+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -18,15 +18,15 @@
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 188,
-      "num_unique_releases": 18,
+      "num_model_releases": 176,
+      "num_unique_releases": 17,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 1572,
-      "num_unique_releases": 158,
+      "num_model_releases": 1568,
+      "num_unique_releases": 157,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
-  "window_reference_time": "2026-09-18T02:49:48.621807+00:00",
+  "window_reference_time": "2026-09-18T02:55:33.951418+00:00",
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
     "prequential-v1": 8345

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,TiRex,4.622794590168651,0.805645715578478,0.15377491103489405,0.605143634912432,32.912882013530556,0.6628143232845662,11,2939,13,84.45138888888889,20.83436135071462,0.0,0.0,8,18,0.75,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-2,Official,Chronos-2,4.611871397478002,0.8447840744176992,0.1629966549450081,0.7127069295281523,26.809809952235494,0.6599629739516574,11,2948,13,84.45138888888889,20.919539396703964,0.0,0.0,8,18,0.75,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,5.222347671170005,0.9222957037586951,0.15651093122714715,0.8229465583794269,21.166491425280615,0.6107029630428665,11,2923,13,84.45138888888889,20.967810619489406,0.0,0.0,7,17,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,5.171815348544089,0.8592712543185727,0.16739144731632047,0.7124168283894452,32.588557757414456,0.5774983148964064,11,2166,13,79.10763888888889,21.076308848104496,0.0,0.0,7,17,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,5.131617654170117,0.8376166749451015,0.17876225984971097,0.7116877220807928,34.67871103865121,0.5648860725125071,11,2034,13,81.10763888888889,31.50447048026259,0.0,0.0,7,14,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,5.115504818258126,0.8496688558251171,0.16958120184000836,0.7409464911750626,20.26248860819019,0.5225875761284003,11,2146,13,79.10763888888889,20.353289697001415,0.0,0.0,7,17,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,5.268913421570349,0.8642136906696252,0.2107040427514487,0.7402304734923776,34.63689600231662,0.5144473073514884,11,2386,13,81.10763888888889,30.6136326505931,0.0,0.0,7,14,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-8,Official,Moving-Average,5.374371234180457,1.0707321148740985,0.23501431100142045,0.9184943884447091,4.563603471159191,0.38718479186701593,11,2745,13,84.45138888888889,29.674910179271166,0.0,0.0,7,14,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-9,Official,Seasonal-Naive,5.5664566650520415,1.10364089889023,0.21246804496301816,0.8780430093586665,0.0,0.38693539128706794,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,30.60834852506885,0.0,0.0,7,14,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,6.717475577088234,1.587682449111303,0.1606744694849755,0.7282636187505241,-30.608628153101513,0.37752233683859354,11,2186,13,79.10763888888889,20.643631576646907,-0.34920634920634924,0.0,7,17,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,5.261302045390033,1.028234864402273,0.16440968313480908,0.7831508723204691,9.270693999937995,0.37055802527322274,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,28.41571977967643,-0.1666666666666667,0.0,7,14,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,5.099476878571629,0.9631383663476422,0.15247958084099605,0.7832490602655481,18.02362227494415,0.3648999235662076,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,27.747132244138015,0.0,0.0,7,14,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T02:55:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+1,Official,TiRex,6.088987088623047,0.9485039420630941,0.15520665748195508,0.7145547553009333,32.216811070233035,0.6628143232845662,11,2939,13,84.45138888888889,23.651311037457067,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,17,0.75,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+2,Official,Chronos-2,6.056778963487683,0.9843690879268399,0.16435965497788832,0.8577726647689838,26.23824543176358,0.6599629739516574,11,2948,13,84.45138888888889,23.819383357916603,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,17,0.75,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,6.8654344197703585,1.080429394688185,0.15808452501767328,0.9851997654505015,20.63501955064184,0.6107029630428665,11,2923,13,84.45138888888889,23.90151272458657,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,16,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,6.808015150884878,1.0141618360401725,0.16895564975074592,0.8584115421233406,32.40085401918974,0.5774983148964064,11,2166,13,79.10763888888889,24.059564253753305,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,16,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,6.766218468138288,0.9943933263912356,0.1803363878543048,0.8737693849456456,34.18574693029921,0.5648860725125071,11,2034,13,81.10763888888889,35.95012355357402,-0.5,0.0,7,13,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,6.747166892209845,1.0117113749853905,0.17133823518416733,0.8992870923006767,19.430591511833537,0.5225875761284003,11,2146,13,79.10763888888889,23.11742731213251,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,16,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,6.94061307360858,1.0288689475467756,0.21250229288191122,0.9065262177706931,34.04495309718781,0.5144473073514884,11,2386,13,81.10763888888889,34.64664696895317,-0.5,0.0,7,13,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+8,Official,Moving-Average,6.984900726250913,1.2334173505179333,0.2368002226365467,1.073364647221958,3.7259437024273323,0.38718479186701593,11,2745,13,84.45138888888889,33.619276549723764,-0.5,0.0,7,13,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+9,Official,Seasonal-Naive,7.231010866181081,1.2632822947239462,0.21424494632498625,1.0081886825048767,0.0,0.38693539128706794,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,34.664925480139814,-0.5,0.0,7,13,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,8.329713507257232,1.7464290216458938,0.16237786593330378,0.863677737044938,-30.89478426704148,0.37752233683859354,11,2186,13,79.10763888888889,23.285512289887766,-0.6825396825396824,0.0,7,16,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,6.805164212437104,1.1638062158348086,0.16445771466413417,0.8010833771900577,11.054694951180744,0.37055802527322274,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,32.186824667384556,-0.5,0.0,7,13,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,6.686125521086012,1.124797115706247,0.15427311676781413,0.9345317855157879,17.659338247383364,0.3648999235662076,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,31.14196780749828,-0.5,0.0,7,13,0.7142857142857143,2026-09-17T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,TiRex,172.45706379216983,1.7946085590417136,0.12722847161160572,1.4811716608554126,22.747917324921037,0.6628143232845662,11,2939,13,84.45138888888889,862.2362150495901,-0.14753335080953012,0.1111111111111111,9,152,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-2,Official,Chronos-2,175.59981873207164,1.8380775239895977,0.11776579276951007,1.5254626434335536,17.454749418271433,0.6599629739516574,11,2948,13,84.45138888888889,877.6345291199248,-0.0802424422041635,0.1111111111111111,9,158,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,175.61680541767814,1.8028596009107813,0.11993632789145314,1.6016082918418482,27.46567320098641,0.6107029630428665,11,2923,13,84.45138888888889,878.3463023852192,-0.2565015871541684,0.1111111111111111,9,142,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+1,Official,TiRex,172.45706379216983,1.7946085590417136,0.12722847161160572,1.4811716608554126,22.747917324921037,0.6628143232845662,11,2939,13,84.45138888888889,862.2362150495901,-0.14753335080953012,0.1111111111111111,9,151,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+2,Official,Chronos-2,175.59981873207164,1.8380775239895977,0.11776579276951007,1.5254626434335536,17.454749418271433,0.6599629739516574,11,2948,13,84.45138888888889,877.6345291199248,-0.0802424422041635,0.1111111111111111,9,157,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,175.61680541767814,1.8028596009107813,0.11993632789145314,1.6016082918418482,27.46567320098641,0.6107029630428665,11,2923,13,84.45138888888889,878.3463023852192,-0.2565015871541684,0.1111111111111111,9,141,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 4,Official,Moirai-2.0,175.58585920727234,1.838331400203792,0.12716763296207956,1.533176768604459,14.00225497487416,0.5774983148964064,11,2166,13,79.10763888888889,877.8218190965093,-0.09415961162492328,0.2222222222222222,9,136,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 5,Official,TabPFN-TS,175.71458402516302,1.9019965725207884,0.15282389937729507,1.5967493509602222,8.02927711817008,0.5648860725125071,11,2034,13,81.10763888888889,878.0038652447713,-0.022901269379755944,0.1111111111111111,9,123,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,175.67508804343302,1.9282257957708377,0.22489445037223546,1.613125370568451,-0.11821435092621731,0.5225875761284003,11,2146,13,79.10763888888889,877.5672264862935,-0.08345395101274959,0.1111111111111111,9,129,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 7,Official,Sundial,175.49836836988086,1.8790482906522858,0.16933122774474066,1.5700966405465233,14.011513541209204,0.5144473073514884,11,2386,13,81.10763888888889,877.2942771149238,-0.3527068565996194,0.1111111111111111,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 8,Official,Moving-Average,175.86795152740993,2.041615075497418,0.2462272335618227,1.7629158424291544,4.0159456662767905,0.38718479186701593,11,2745,13,84.45138888888889,877.7424133754457,-0.1749888733345065,0.1111111111111111,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 9,Official,Seasonal-Naive,176.18862042841428,2.074089870201462,0.17680373680684672,1.6553660699872486,0.0,0.38693539128706794,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,987.9235099122682,-0.218659633828182,0.2222222222222222,9,118,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,263.029825858977,2.495448996114937,0.1367698635026533,1.5768541345122613,-24.95559366340074,0.37752233683859354,11,2186,13,79.10763888888889,1318.923046878312,0.11829646548647443,0.0,9,140,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,263.03015595693455,2.4956524886574605,0.1367698635026533,1.5768541267200578,-24.95559366340074,0.37752233683859354,11,2186,13,79.10763888888889,1318.9234264752326,0.11885927259516113,0.0,9,139,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 11,Official,ARIMA,198.12493029163784,2.678113939844775,0.1917284723558718,2.3430723608824953,-15.574030410488197,0.37055802527322274,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,1068.1148234978295,-0.10841925905809638,0.1111111111111111,9,118,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
 12,Official,ETS,251.62998822403773,3.450074940326053,0.24425951986618738,2.987531784290291,-11.610924874159231,0.3648999235662076,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,1258.6922824151443,0.05571993508109775,0.1111111111111111,9,118,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.980040+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.884809+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 {
-  "status": "partial",
+  "status": "ok",
   "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
   "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-  "started_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.308288+00:00",
-  "finished_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:52.955237+00:00",
+  "started_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:29.925350+00:00",
+  "finished_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:38.667400+00:00",
   "data_source": "ts_bench",
   "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
   "task_count": 1,
@@ -11,13 +11,7 @@
   "issued_forecasts": 0,
   "resolved_forecasts": 0,
   "pending_tasks": 9,
-  "failed_forecasts": [
-    {
-      "model": "*",
-      "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-      "error": "Source is stale: first target period already started"
-    }
-  ],
+  "failed_forecasts": [],
   "models": {
     "Chronos-2": {
       "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -25,7 +19,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647900+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525591+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TiRex": {
@@ -34,7 +28,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647924+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525613+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TimesFM-2.5": {
@@ -43,7 +37,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647929+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525616+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Toto-1.0": {
@@ -52,7 +46,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647933+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525619+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Moirai-2.0": {
@@ -61,7 +55,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647938+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525621+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Chronos-Bolt": {
@@ -70,7 +64,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647942+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525624+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TabPFN-TS": {
@@ -79,7 +73,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647948+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525626+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Sundial": {
@@ -88,7 +82,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647959+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525636+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Moving-Average": {
@@ -97,7 +91,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647965+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525639+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "ETS": {
@@ -106,7 +100,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647970+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525642+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "ARIMA": {
@@ -115,7 +109,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647975+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525644+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Seasonal-Naive": {
@@ -124,7 +118,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:49:45.647979+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:30.525647+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     }
   },
@@ -149,7 +143,7 @@
     "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
   },
   "push_status": "ok",
-  "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:50:04.304325+00:00",
+  "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:50.445101+00:00",
   "push_detail": "HF Hub API",
   "canonical_history_rows": 30733,
   "latest_scored_release_time": "2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00"

results/publication_status.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"push_status": "ok", "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:50:04.304325+00:00"}
+{"push_status": "ok", "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:55:50.445101+00:00"}