Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:05:06.446274+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:50.318545+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -25,8 +25,8 @@
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 1584,
-      "num_unique_releases": 159,
+      "num_model_releases": 1572,
+      "num_unique_releases": 158,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
-  "window_reference_time": "2026-09-18T02:05:02.292954+00:00",
+  "window_reference_time": "2026-09-18T02:12:45.619164+00:00",
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
     "prequential-v1": 8345

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,TiRex,166.13226849025952,1.761231042818552,0.12714562445324035,1.4478192973144095,22.689553325902345,0.6628143232845662,11,2939,13,84.45138888888889,846.1492284711168,-0.14629245179085332,0.1111111111111111,9,153,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-2,Official,Chronos-2,169.16480178022124,1.8044315232868884,0.11768164193181371,1.492384225897211,17.395294413982526,0.6599629739516574,11,2948,13,84.45138888888889,861.2642433909523,-0.07910284106456238,0.1111111111111111,9,159,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,169.18316829151686,1.7694002963951603,0.11985555842829246,1.5685879296339993,27.402307202860257,0.6107029630428665,11,2923,13,84.45138888888889,861.9757666783411,-0.2556912041215631,0.1111111111111111,9,143,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,169.14929155834895,1.8040378113958988,0.12707881464537604,1.49849764472788,13.987452030657836,0.5774983148964064,11,2166,13,79.10763888888889,861.4517837642757,-0.09302001048532214,0.2222222222222222,9,137,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,169.28231347135227,1.8688083418897472,0.15274771193410097,1.5643152939361333,7.955283161539417,0.5648860725125071,11,2034,13,81.10763888888889,861.6329031365924,-0.023179838547214004,0.1111111111111111,9,124,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,169.24383139936361,1.8949536715662814,0.22481094679354205,1.5798977832268328,-0.18098609291658482,0.5225875761284003,11,2146,13,79.10763888888889,861.1958991894961,-0.08441628086396832,0.1111111111111111,9,130,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,169.0576146785346,1.844022447049783,0.1692301666172556,1.5365027398777915,14.024839602574108,0.5144473073514884,11,2386,13,81.10763888888889,860.9253020413687,-0.35176985121816956,0.1111111111111111,9,120,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-8,Official,Moving-Average,169.4260784647574,2.006293583295577,0.24611853321776608,1.729093620325825,4.04075124687851,0.38718479186701593,11,2745,13,84.45138888888889,861.373574595877,-0.17400121901351884,0.1111111111111111,9,120,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-9,Official,Seasonal-Naive,169.7518018356735,2.03982602729225,0.1767072369568845,1.623972664137214,0.0,0.38693539128706794,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,969.5080013887261,-0.2179758731444213,0.2222222222222222,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,253.41793494146305,2.454805035844698,0.1366775890295426,1.5422504722372798,-25.00292014719139,0.37752233683859354,11,2186,13,79.10763888888889,1294.370287716289,0.11703024199802872,0.0,9,141,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,191.6910670201579,2.6448453799696634,0.1916284198019495,2.307658617860069,-15.619981517328418,0.37055802527322274,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,1049.6987386114836,-0.10955886019769752,0.1111111111111111,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,245.18827713195677,3.4146856251733366,0.24416691475844216,2.9542680252066966,-11.571953615261732,0.3648999235662076,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,1240.2766279495272,0.05637520573636841,0.1111111111111111,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:10:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+1,Official,TiRex,172.45706379216983,1.7946085590417136,0.12722847161160572,1.4811716608554126,22.747917324921037,0.6628143232845662,11,2939,13,84.45138888888889,862.2362150495901,-0.14753335080953012,0.1111111111111111,9,152,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+2,Official,Chronos-2,175.59981873207164,1.8380775239895977,0.11776579276951007,1.5254626434335536,17.454749418271433,0.6599629739516574,11,2948,13,84.45138888888889,877.6345291199248,-0.0802424422041635,0.1111111111111111,9,158,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,175.61680541767814,1.8028596009107813,0.11993632789145314,1.6016082918418482,27.46567320098641,0.6107029630428665,11,2923,13,84.45138888888889,878.3463023852192,-0.2565015871541684,0.1111111111111111,9,142,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,175.58585920727234,1.838331400203792,0.12716763296207956,1.533176768604459,14.00225497487416,0.5774983148964064,11,2166,13,79.10763888888889,877.8218190965093,-0.09415961162492328,0.2222222222222222,9,136,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,175.71458402516302,1.9019965725207884,0.15282389937729507,1.5967493509602222,8.02927711817008,0.5648860725125071,11,2034,13,81.10763888888889,878.0038652447713,-0.022901269379755944,0.1111111111111111,9,123,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,175.67508804343302,1.9282257957708377,0.22489445037223546,1.613125370568451,-0.11821435092621731,0.5225875761284003,11,2146,13,79.10763888888889,877.5672264862935,-0.08345395101274959,0.1111111111111111,9,129,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,175.49836836988086,1.8790482906522858,0.16933122774474066,1.5700966405465233,14.011513541209204,0.5144473073514884,11,2386,13,81.10763888888889,877.2942771149238,-0.3527068565996194,0.1111111111111111,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+8,Official,Moving-Average,175.86795152740993,2.041615075497418,0.2462272335618227,1.7629158424291544,4.0159456662767905,0.38718479186701593,11,2745,13,84.45138888888889,877.7424133754457,-0.1749888733345065,0.1111111111111111,9,119,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+9,Official,Seasonal-Naive,176.18862042841428,2.074089870201462,0.17680373680684672,1.6553660699872486,0.0,0.38693539128706794,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,987.9235099122682,-0.218659633828182,0.2222222222222222,9,118,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,263.029825858977,2.495448996114937,0.1367698635026533,1.5768541345122613,-24.95559366340074,0.37752233683859354,11,2186,13,79.10763888888889,1318.923046878312,0.11829646548647443,0.0,9,140,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T02:50:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,198.12493029163784,2.678113939844775,0.1917284723558718,2.3430723608824953,-15.574030410488197,0.37055802527322274,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,1068.1148234978295,-0.10841925905809638,0.1111111111111111,9,118,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,251.62998822403773,3.450074940326053,0.24425951986618738,2.987531784290291,-11.610924874159231,0.3648999235662076,11,2744,13,84.45138888888889,1258.6922824151443,0.05571993508109775,0.1111111111111111,9,118,0.7777777777777778,2026-09-11T04:00:00+00:00,2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.708738+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.349936+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,23 +1,17 @@
 {
-  "status": "partial",
+  "status": "ok",
   "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
   "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-  "started_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:58.802650+00:00",
-  "finished_at": "2026-09-18T02:05:06.480008+00:00",
+  "started_at": "2026-09-18T02:10:20.104252+00:00",
+  "finished_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:50.360496+00:00",
   "data_source": "ts_bench",
   "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
   "task_count": 2,
-  "issued_tasks": 0,
-  "issued_forecasts": 0,
+  "issued_tasks": 1,
+  "issued_forecasts": 12,
   "resolved_forecasts": 0,
-  "pending_tasks": 8,
-  "failed_forecasts": [
-    {
-      "model": "*",
-      "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-      "error": "Source is stale: first target period already started"
-    }
-  ],
+  "pending_tasks": 9,
+  "failed_forecasts": [],
   "models": {
     "Chronos-2": {
       "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -25,7 +19,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399113+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016680+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TiRex": {
@@ -34,7 +28,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399139+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016700+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TimesFM-2.5": {
@@ -43,7 +37,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399145+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016703+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Toto-1.0": {
@@ -52,7 +46,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399149+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016706+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Moirai-2.0": {
@@ -61,7 +55,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399153+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016709+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Chronos-Bolt": {
@@ -70,7 +64,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399158+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016712+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "TabPFN-TS": {
@@ -79,7 +73,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399162+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016716+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Sundial": {
@@ -88,7 +82,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399173+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016726+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Moving-Average": {
@@ -97,7 +91,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399179+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016731+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "ETS": {
@@ -106,7 +100,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399183+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016734+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "ARIMA": {
@@ -115,7 +109,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399187+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016737+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     },
     "Seasonal-Naive": {
@@ -124,7 +118,7 @@
       "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
       "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
       "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:04:59.399191+00:00",
+      "evaluated_at": "2026-09-18T02:12:42.016740+00:00",
       "resolved_tasks": []
     }
   },
@@ -149,7 +143,7 @@
     "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
   },
   "push_status": "ok",
-  "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:05:18.732306+00:00",
+  "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:13:02.899066+00:00",
   "push_detail": "HF Hub API",
   "canonical_history_rows": 30733,
   "latest_scored_release_time": "2026-09-18T01:35:00+00:00"

results/publication_status.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"push_status": "ok", "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:05:18.732306+00:00"}
+{"push_status": "ok", "pushed_at": "2026-09-18T02:13:02.899066+00:00"}