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Updated files for compute watch no 1

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Files changed (6) hide show
  1. events.csv +30 -14
  2. ladder.csv +7 -0
  3. loans.csv +6 -2
  4. notes/no-00.md +1 -1
  5. notes/no-01.md +103 -0
  6. observations.csv +2 -1
events.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,14 +1,30 @@
1
- date,category,event,source_name,source_url,first_recorded_in,causal_claim
2
- 2026-08-11,market,"CME Group said it would start selling bets on chip rent (futures) on 5 October, following Silicon Data's prices. By No. 0 it had not started.",CME Group,https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html,0,none
3
- 2026-08-17,lending,"If OpenAI stops paying for its data-centre space at a new campus in Ohio, which will hold Nvidia's chips, Nvidia will cover what the landlord can't recover, up to $105 billion. This covers the rent on the space, not the value of the chips (Nvidia's filing calls it a residual value guarantee). The site is due to open from 2028, and OpenAI has agreed to pay Nvidia back.",Nvidia Form 8-K,https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/988230c7-dd29-466b-92dc-5cf34f65b60f.pdf,0,none
4
- 2026-08-21,market,"The CFTC, the US agency that has to allow bets on chip rent (compute futures) before anyone can trade them, asked companies and experts for their views. Among its questions: how much chip rent is agreed at prices anyone can see, rather than in private deals, and how to stop a few deals from swinging the price wildly. Views are due by 20 October.",Federal Register,https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf,0,none
5
- 2026-08-27,supply,"Vera Rubin chips, the generation after Blackwell (B200, B300), to AWS.",Nvidia,https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/,0,none
6
- 2026-09-17,prices,"Nebius raised its hourly prices for selected Nvidia chips by 17-21% from 1 October, its second rise in three months.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/,0,none
7
- 2026-09-17,prices,"CoreWeave said it was still signing new contracts at higher prices, including short ones of three to six months.",CoreWeave,https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Continues-to-Contract-New-Compute-Capacity-at-Higher-Prices/default.aspx,0,none
8
- 2026-09-26,demand,"OpenAI paused training and tool-using work on its most capable models, its second pause in three months. Its public services weren't affected.",Fortune,https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/openai-ai-agents-secure-sandbox-escape-training-pause-second-time-hugging-face-hack/,0,none
9
- 2026-09-29,lending,"Nvidia was reported to be working with insurers and the broker Howden Re to spread the risk on loans backed by its chips.",Financial Times,https://www.ft.com/content/d6a9f5df-08d0-4f80-ad2d-5d8a17e2cc82,0,none
10
- 2026-09-29,demand,"Anthropic's IPO prospectus lists at least $518 billion of infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% payable whether used or not.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/,0,none
11
- 2026-09-29,market,"Intercontinental Exchange said it would show test prices for bets on chip rent from 5 October, following Ornn's prices. Nobody can trade them yet.",ICE Futures U.S.,https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf,0,none
12
- 2026-09-30,demand,"Google announced Gemini 4 Argon. The model is able to write a single answer up to 1 million tokens long (roughly 750,000 words, up from about 64,000 tokens) and will go to a small group of testers first. Google says its Gemini models have run on its own chips for years.",Google,https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/,0,none
13
- 2026-10-01,lending,"Banks and investors were reported to value Nvidia's chips lower than Nvidia does, and to want stronger guarantees before lending against them.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/,0,none
14
- 2026-10-01,lending,"Anthropic agreed to pay $125.2 billion over five years for the use of chip capacity. Broadcom, a chipmaker, agreed to lend it up to $42 billion towards that. Instead of being repaid, Broadcom can choose to take shares in Anthropic (a convertible note) .",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/broadcom-lend-anthropic-up-42-billion-lease-its-chips-filing-says-2026-10-01/,0,none
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ date,category,event,source_name,source_url,first_recorded_in,causal_claim
2
+ 2026-08-11,market,"CME Group said it would start selling bets on chip rent (futures) on 5 October, following Silicon Data's prices. By No. 0 it had not started.",CME Group,https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/8/11/cme_group_and_silicondatatolaunchcomputefuturesonoctober5tounloc.html,0,none
3
+ 2026-08-17,lending,"If OpenAI stops paying for its data-centre space at a new campus in Ohio, which will hold Nvidia's chips, Nvidia will cover what the landlord can't recover, up to $105 billion. This covers the rent on the space, not the value of the chips (Nvidia's filing calls it a residual value guarantee). The site is due to open from 2028, and OpenAI has agreed to pay Nvidia back.",Nvidia Form 8-K,https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001045810/988230c7-dd29-466b-92dc-5cf34f65b60f.pdf,0,none
4
+ 2026-08-21,market,"The CFTC, the US agency that has to allow bets on chip rent (compute futures) before anyone can trade them, asked companies and experts for their views. Among its questions: how much chip rent is agreed at prices anyone can see, rather than in private deals, and how to stop a few deals from swinging the price wildly. Views are due by 20 October.",Federal Register,https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-08-21/pdf/2026-17163.pdf,0,none
5
+ 2026-08-27,supply,"Nvidia delivered its first Vera Rubin chips, the generation after Blackwell (B200, B300), to AWS.",Nvidia,https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/vera-cpu-delivery/,0,none
6
+ 2026-09-17,prices,"Nebius raised its hourly prices for selected Nvidia chips by 17-21% from 1 October, its second rise in three months.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/technology/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-2026-09-17/,0,none
7
+ 2026-09-17,prices,"CoreWeave said it was still signing new contracts at higher prices, including short ones of three to six months.",CoreWeave,https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Continues-to-Contract-New-Compute-Capacity-at-Higher-Prices/default.aspx,0,none
8
+ 2026-09-26,demand,"OpenAI paused training and tool-using work on its most capable models, its second pause in three months. Its public services weren't affected.",Fortune,https://fortune.com/2026/09/26/openai-ai-agents-secure-sandbox-escape-training-pause-second-time-hugging-face-hack/,0,none
9
+ 2026-09-29,lending,Nvidia was reported to be working with insurers and the broker Howden Re to spread the risk on loans backed by its chips.,Financial Times,https://www.ft.com/content/d6a9f5df-08d0-4f80-ad2d-5d8a17e2cc82,0,none
10
+ 2026-09-29,demand,"Anthropic's IPO prospectus lists at least $518 billion of infrastructure commitments over about a decade, roughly 80% payable whether used or not.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/world/anthropic-ipo-prospectus-lays-bare-deep-dependence-big-tech-partners-2026-09-29/,0,none
11
+ 2026-09-29,market,"Intercontinental Exchange said it would show test prices for bets on chip rent from 5 October, following Ornn's prices. Nobody can trade them yet.",ICE Futures U.S.,https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_Exchange_Notice_ORNN_Compute_4Q2026_20260929.pdf,0,none
12
+ 2026-09-30,demand,"Google announced Gemini 4 Argon. The model is able to write a single answer up to 1 million tokens long (roughly 750,000 words, up from about 64,000 tokens) and will go to a small group of testers first. Google says its Gemini models have run on its own chips for years.",Google,https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/,0,none
13
+ 2026-10-01,lending,"Banks and investors were reported to value Nvidia's chips lower than Nvidia does, and to want stronger guarantees before lending against them.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/nvidias-bet-that-its-chips-can-finance-ai-boom-gets-wall-street-reality-check-2026-10-01/,0,none
14
+ 2026-10-01,lending,"Anthropic agreed to pay $125.2 billion over five years for the use of chip capacity. Broadcom, a chipmaker, agreed to lend it up to $42 billion towards that. Instead of being repaid, Broadcom can choose to take shares in Anthropic (a convertible note).",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/broadcom-lend-anthropic-up-42-billion-lease-its-chips-filing-says-2026-10-01/,0,none
15
+ 2026-10-09,supply,"Firmus, an Australian firm that rents out AI chips, withdrew its stock market listing after weak demand at its asking price.",Forbes Australia,https://www.forbes.com.au/news/investing/firmus-44-billion-ipo-collapse-explained/,1,none
16
+ 2026-10-16,lending,"In the week to 16 October, CoreWeave's shares fell more than 15%, the yield on its 2030 bonds rose about 5 percentage points to near 16%, and the cost of insuring its debt against default climbed to about 12% a year.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/why-coreweave-is-crosshairs-ai-scare-2026-10-16/,1,none
17
+ 2026-10-18,supply,"Microsoft withdrew as the main tenant of Nscale's planned site at Loughton, England. Grid power there was reportedly not expected before the 2030s. Microsoft said the decision relates to a single site.",Reuters,https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/microsoft-pulls-out-uk-data-center-deal-with-nscale-telegraph-reports-2026-10-18/,1,none
18
+ 2026-10-20,supply,"SpaceX said it aims to rent out about half its AI computing capacity, at effectively the spot-market rate rather than on long-term contracts.",SpaceX Q3 2026 webcast transcript,https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/content_files/SpaceX-Third-Quarter-2026-Webcast-Transcript.pdf,1,none
19
+ 2026-10-20,market,"The CFTC's comment period on compute derivatives closed. Comments came from CME, ICE, both index makers, trading firms, investors and academics; this watch's author filed comment 0060.",Regulations.gov,https://www.regulations.gov/comment/CFTC-2026-1850-0060,1,none
20
+ 2026-10-21,supply,NextDC cut its guidance after grid works for its Melbourne M3 site were suspended; they won't restart before February 2027.,NEXTDC announcement,https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/news/EQS-Adhoc-NEXTDC-Limited-M3-Melbourne-Power-Delay-and-Revised-FY27-Guidance-7ecf06f9-08b6-4088-a7bf-0a3c547b9c34,1,none
21
+ 2026-10-26,lending,"Anthropic's $63 billion North Star financing, repaid from its lease payments for Google-designed chips, was announced. The Wall Street Journal reported that several banks had considered pulling out, and that it went through at higher rates, with more support from Broadcom. Final rates weren't published.",Wall Street Journal,https://www.wsj.com/finance/broadcom-ceo-intervened-to-seal-63-billion-anthropic-debt-deal-c807754f,1,none
22
+ 2026-10-26,demand,Anthropic filed its public IPO prospectus (S-1).,SEC EDGAR,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm,1,none
23
+ 2026-10-27,supply,"Nvidia and Oracle said Vera Rubin systems were generally available on Oracle's cloud. No public rental price was given, and Rubin isn't in either index yet.",Nvidia,https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-oracle-expand-nvidia-vera-rubin-to-multi-gigawatt-scale-and-bring-nvidia-vera-cpu-to-oracle-cloud-infrastructure,1,none
24
+ 2026-10-28,prices,"Alphabet said it started using third-party compute capacity at the end of Q3 because of the supply-constrained environment, and will ramp usage in Q4.",Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings call,https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q3-Earnings-Call-2026-Ujou16CTw9/default.aspx,1,none
25
+ 2026-10-28,prices,"Microsoft said customer demand continues to exceed available supply, and that token prices were higher than it expected.",Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call,https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2027/earnings-fy-2027-q1,1,none
26
+ 2026-10-28,supply,Microsoft said some contracts for chips rented from outside providers were delayed to January-June 2027.,Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call,https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2027/earnings-fy-2027-q1,1,none
27
+ 2026-10-28,supply,"SK hynix said long-term agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 production capacity, typically for five years.",SK hynix,https://news.skhynix.com/en/q3-2026-business-results/,1,none
28
+ 2026-10-31,supply,Elon Musk said SpaceX's Colossus 2 site would hold about 1.2 million Blackwell chips by the end of the year.,X (Elon Musk),https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2116596535433871630,1,none
29
+ 2026-11-01,prices,Users of Grok Bot reported reaching their usage limits much faster than usual. Elon Musk said the cost of serving it was unsustainably high relative to revenue.,X (Elon Musk),https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2116992258520064397,1,none
30
+ 2026-11-02,market,"ICE has listed monthly futures on Ornn's B200 and H100 prices, December 2026 to December 2027, and publishes daily settlement prices; no contract had traded as of this date. CME's futures on Silicon Data's prices had not launched.",ICE,https://www.ice.com/products/83050009/Ornn-Compute-Price-Index-OCPI-B200-Future,1,none
ladder.csv CHANGED
@@ -6,3 +6,10 @@ note,recorded_on,index,chip,provider_type,ratio_to_h100
6
  0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,B300,specialist,2.45
7
  0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,H100,hyperscaler,2.60
8
  0,2026-09-30,Ornn,B200,all,2.99
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6
  0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,B300,specialist,2.45
7
  0,2026-10-02,Silicon Data,H100,hyperscaler,2.60
8
  0,2026-09-30,Ornn,B200,all,2.99
9
+ 1,2026-11-02,Silicon Data,A100,specialist,0.53
10
+ 1,2026-11-02,Silicon Data,H100,specialist,1.00
11
+ 1,2026-11-02,Silicon Data,H200,specialist,1.18
12
+ 1,2026-11-02,Silicon Data,B200,specialist,2.22
13
+ 1,2026-11-02,Silicon Data,B300,specialist,2.58
14
+ 1,2026-11-02,Silicon Data,H100,hyperscaler,2.44
15
+ 1,2026-11-01,Ornn,B200,all,3.13
loans.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,2 +1,6 @@
1
- disclosed_on,borrower,amount_usd_bn,pricing,collateral,filing,source_url,first_recorded_in
2
- 2026-09-18,Nscale,1.4,"5 percentage points over the benchmark rate",GPUs,Form S-1,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm,0
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ disclosed_on,borrower,amount_usd_bn,type,pricing,collateral,filing,source_url,first_recorded_in
2
+ 2026-09-18,Nscale,1.4,chip-backed loan to a lessor,5 percentage points over the benchmark rate,GPUs,Form S-1,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm,0
3
+ 2026-10-01,Sharon AI,0.356,chip-backed project loan (one customer contract),"Facility B ($206m): 9.95% fixed; Facility A ($150m): 7.25% initially, rising to 9.95% on unspecified dates; 42 months","Substantially all project assets, including GPUs and the customer contract",Form 8-K,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002068385/000149315226045368/form8-k.htm,1
4
+ 2026-10-05,Volta,5,AI-cloud leveraged loan (being marketed),About 11% yield; 6.25-6.5 percentage points over the benchmark rate,Not disclosed,Bloomberg (reported),https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-05/jpmorgan-dangles-11-yield-on-volta-s-5-billion-ai-loan-sale,1
5
+ 2026-10-17,Nebius,3.5,corporate secured loan,"2.75 percentage points over the benchmark rate (Term SOFR), rising 0.25 every 90 days to a cap of 3.5; one year",Substantially all assets,Form 6-K,https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926117978/tm2628078d1_6k.htm,1
6
+ 2026-10-26,Anthropic (North Star vehicle),63,lease-backed (tenant credit),Final rates not published; WSJ reported higher rates after banks hesitated,Anthropic's lease payments; equipment bought by the vehicle,Wall Street Journal (reported),https://www.wsj.com/finance/broadcom-ceo-intervened-to-seal-63-billion-anthropic-debt-deal-c807754f,1
notes/no-00.md CHANGED
@@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ Silicon Data and Ornn disagree on the level of the premium (2.1× against 3.0×)
57
 
58
  The prediction: once the chip shortage eases, the B200 loses its rent premium over the H100 well before the five or six years the owners’ accounts assume. Right if the premium is below 1.6× on Silicon Data for two notes in a row; wrong if it stays above 1.9× for two notes in a row.
59
 
60
- Status: inactive. The shortage-easing trigger(memory index at or below 85 for two notes in a row) has not been met. Until it is, movements in the B200 price prove nothing either way.
61
 
62
  ## Known confounds, recorded at baseline
63
 
 
57
 
58
  The prediction: once the chip shortage eases, the B200 loses its rent premium over the H100 well before the five or six years the owners’ accounts assume. Right if the premium is below 1.6× on Silicon Data for two notes in a row; wrong if it stays above 1.9× for two notes in a row.
59
 
60
+ Status: inactive. The shortage-easing trigger (memory index at or below 85 for two notes in a row) has not been met. Until it is, movements in the B200 price prove nothing either way.
61
 
62
  ## Known confounds, recorded at baseline
63
 
notes/no-01.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ---
2
+ note: 1
3
+ title: "The Compute Watch - No. 1: Rents Up, Memory Barely Moved"
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+
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+ note_date: 2026-11-02
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+
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+ silicondata_recorded_on: 2026-11-02
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+
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+ ornn_recorded_on: 2026-11-01
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+
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+ canonical_url: https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-01.html
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+
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+ author: Lida Liberopoulou
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+
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+ license: CC BY-SA 4.0
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+
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+ test_status: inactive (shortage not easing)
18
+ ---
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+
20
+ # No. 1: Rents Up, Memory Barely Moved
21
+
22
+ ## What this is
23
+
24
+ The Compute Watch is a monthly public record of what AI chips (GPUs) rent for, what lenders charge against them, and how long their owners say they last. This file is the structured reasoning behind No. 1. Every figure is compared against the No. 0 baseline.
25
+
26
+ - The published note: [No. 1: Rents Up, Memory Barely Moved](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-01.html)
27
+ - The baseline: [No. 0](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html); what the watch is: [The Compute Watch](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html)
28
+ - The data for this note: `observations.csv`, `ladder.csv`, `events.csv` and `loans.csv` in this dataset, rows marked note `1`. `lifespans.csv` has no new rows.
29
+ - Kept by Lida Liberopoulou at [Threadbaire](https://threadbaire.com), independent research on AI economics and infrastructure. Research, not investment advice.
30
+
31
+ ## Readings
32
+
33
+ - Premium (B200 rent ÷ H100 rent): 2.22× (Silicon Data, was 2.12×), 3.13× (Ornn, was 2.99×).
34
+ - The same H100 rents for 2.44× more at the largest cloud companies than at specialist providers (was 2.60×).
35
+ - Memory index (GDDR6, rebased to No. 0 = 100): 101.6.
36
+ - Owners' server lifespans: no change. Alphabet restated "generally six years" for servers on its Q3 2026 call.
37
+ - Loan terms: one new chip-backed loan disclosed (Sharon AI, $356 million over 42 months: $206 million at 9.95% fixed, $150 million starting at 7.25% and rising to 9.95%). Three other financings of different kinds are recorded in `loans.csv` with a `type` field, and are not compared with the baseline directly.
38
+
39
+ ## What changed since the last note
40
+
41
+ - Silicon Data, change since 2 October: A100 −1.3%, H100 +5.8%, H200 +2.7%, B200 +10.9%, B300 +11.5%, H100 at the largest cloud companies −0.6%.
42
+ - Ornn: H100 +11.4% and B200 +16.7% (30 September to 1 November); H200 +18.7% and A100 +15.2% (5 October to 1 November).
43
+ - Memory: +1.6%, in four small steps roughly a week apart (the index is published daily but moved weekly in October). TrendForce's GDDR6 spot price was roughly flat in late October (−0.23% in the week to 26 October).
44
+ - The premium widened on both indexes.
45
+
46
+ ## What it might mean
47
+
48
+ Every chip rose except the oldest, and the two newest (B200, B300) rose most. That is consistent with a shortage that is tightening, not easing. Memory rose far less than rents, so in October something other than the memory price moved most of the rent. Possible candidates on record: power, credit for the specialist providers, and new demand. This is a reading, not part of the test.
49
+
50
+ Three things held supply back at once: credit for specialist providers (CoreWeave's bond and default-insurance repricing; Firmus withdrawing its listing), power at named sites (Loughton, Melbourne M3), and memory. All three push easing further off, which makes it more likely the prediction is still open at No. 6.
51
+
52
+ ## Where the sources disagree
53
+
54
+ - The two indexes moved the same way on every chip but the oldest: Silicon Data had the A100 down 1.3%, Ornn up 15.2%.
55
+ - The gap between their premiums widened from 0.87 to 0.91.
56
+ - On Ornn, the B200 rose steeply in mid-October and slipped slightly from a peak around 27–29 October; Silicon Data's readings show no such slip.
57
+ - The two measure related but different things: Silicon Data combines completed deals with posted prices and adjusts them to a standard configuration; Ornn uses only completed on-demand rentals.
58
+ - Sharon AI's press release said "9.95% fixed"; its 8-K shows part of the loan starts at 7.25%.
59
+
60
+ ## Test status
61
+
62
+ Status: inactive. The shortage-easing trigger (memory index at or below 85 for two notes in a row) has not been met; the index is at 101.6. Until it is, movements in the B200 price prove nothing either way.
63
+
64
+ ## Known confounds, recorded
65
+
66
+ From No. 0: new workloads on older chips; power, not memory. Added since:
67
+
68
+ - Cooling, not memory: liquid-cooled space for Blackwell is scarcer than air-cooled space for H100s, so a facility shortage can hold older-chip rent up independently of memory.
69
+ - Condition, not memory: worn cards could bias older-chip rent down and the premium up; no index records condition.
70
+ - Supply held back by credit, power and memory at once (above).
71
+
72
+ None changes the test.
73
+
74
+ ## Index content changes
75
+
76
+ - Silicon Data added an A100 hyperscaler price; Ornn added the RTX PRO 6000. Neither is used.
77
+ - Vera Rubin became generally available at one cloud (Oracle, 27 October) but is not in either index.
78
+ - ICE has listed monthly futures on Ornn's B200 and H100 prices (December 2026 to December 2027) and publishes daily settlements; no contract had traded as of 2 November. CME's futures on Silicon Data's prices have not launched.
79
+
80
+ ## Predictions scored: Anthropic's S-1
81
+
82
+ Four predictions filed on 23 October in [Follow the Money Both Ways](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/follow-the-money-both-ways.html), scored against the first public S-1 (26 October). All four passed:
83
+
84
+ 1. Use of proceeds stays vague: pass.
85
+ 2. Neither Amazon nor Alphabet in the related-party section for compute: pass.
86
+ 3. The Broadcom leases can't be rebuilt to the ~$161.2 billion total: pass.
87
+ 4. Cash invested and commitments can't both be stated for Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft: pass (no cash figure for Microsoft).
88
+
89
+ ## What to watch in No. 2
90
+
91
+ - Whether the Blackwell chips SpaceX says it is adding by year-end come online, and whether B300 rent softens.
92
+ - Whether Ornn's late-October B200 slip continues.
93
+ - Whether rents keep rising much faster than memory for a second month.
94
+ - Whether any ICE futures trade.
95
+ - When Rubin enters the indexes.
96
+
97
+ ## Counter-argument and reader question
98
+
99
+ No counter-arguments or reader questions were sent in. The strongest counter-argument made in public: Jensen Huang (Yahoo Finance, 21 October) said chip life cycles are "probably eight to maybe more" years and that "you might be able to underwrite a loan against the asset itself". Answer: his case rests on demand ("so many offtakers"), which holds in a shortage, and the test starts only once the shortage eases. Where power is the constraint, newer chips do more with the same power, so an older chip can keep running while losing its claim on the power.
100
+
101
+ ## Contribute
102
+
103
+ Send what you pay for compute, a correction, a counter-argument or a question: [threadbaire.com/contact.html#compute-watch](https://threadbaire.com/contact.html#compute-watch). You don't need to give your name. Your own numbers are never published or put into AI tools, and pooled ranges appear only once at least five people have reported on a chip. Arguments and questions may be discussed with AI tools while drafting an answer, without your name or identifying details, unless you ask for them to stay out. [How contributions work](https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch.html#how-to-contribute).
observations.csv CHANGED
@@ -1,2 +1,3 @@
1
  note,note_date,canonical_url,silicondata_recorded_on,ornn_recorded_on,premium_b200_h100_silicondata,premium_b200_h100_ornn,h100_hyperscaler_vs_specialist,gddr6_rebased,shortage_easing,test_status,index_content_changes,screenshots_kept
2
- 0,2026-10-06,https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html,2026-10-02,2026-09-30,2.12,2.99,2.60,100,no,"inactive: shortage not easing","baseline; no changes recorded",yes
 
 
1
  note,note_date,canonical_url,silicondata_recorded_on,ornn_recorded_on,premium_b200_h100_silicondata,premium_b200_h100_ornn,h100_hyperscaler_vs_specialist,gddr6_rebased,shortage_easing,test_status,index_content_changes,screenshots_kept
2
+ 0,2026-10-06,https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-00.html,2026-10-02,2026-09-30,2.12,2.99,2.60,100,no,inactive: shortage not easing,baseline; no changes recorded,yes
3
+ 1,2026-11-02,https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/compute-watch-01.html,2026-11-02,2026-11-01,2.22,3.13,2.44,101.6,no,inactive: shortage not easing,Silicon Data added an A100 hyperscaler price; Ornn added the RTX PRO 6000; neither used,yes