Updated articles.json with follow-the-money-both-ways

articles.json

@@ -221,7 +221,7 @@
   "core_claim": "Much of the AI buildout is financed with debt that chip rent is meant to repay, while owners' accounts assume chips keep earning for five or six years and a better chip arrives every year or two. The rent that values, secures and will settle bets on these chips is set by a thin leftover market of hourly deals. Once the current shortage eases, the newest chip's rent premium over older chips is expected to collapse well before the assumed lifespans run out.",
   "tags": ["compute futures", "GPU rental prices", "chip-backed lending", "depreciation", "server lifespans", "AI infrastructure financing", "thin markets", "pre-registered prediction", "reader contributions"],
   "evidence_sources": ["ICE Futures U.S. notice Sept 2026", "CME Group compute futures announcement Aug 2026", "CFTC request for comment on compute derivatives", "Federal Register notice Aug 2026", "ICE/NATIVX energy-normalised compute futures", "Goldman Sachs AI debt research Aug 2026", "Morgan Stanley data-centre financing report July 2025", "CoreWeave 2025 10-K and 2026 10-Q", "Scaleway (DCD)", "Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle annual reports", "Google TPU", "Microsoft Maia 200", "Amazon Trainium", "Meta MTIA", "Qualcomm data-centre roadmap", "AMD Helios", "Nvidia Vera Rubin", "Intel Crescent Island", "Silicon Data GPU rental indices", "Ornn Compute Price Index"],
-  "related_articles": ["compute-watch-00", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "the-silicon-industrialists-part-1"],
+  "related_articles": ["compute-watch-00", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "the-silicon-industrialists-part-1","follow-the-money-both-ways"],
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 },
 {
@@ -240,5 +240,22 @@
   "evidence_sources": ["Silicon Data GPU rental indices", "Ornn Compute Price Index", "ICE Futures U.S. notice Sept 2026", "CME Group announcement Aug 2026", "CFTC request for comment", "Nscale Form S-1", "Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave annual reports", "Nvidia Form 8-K Aug 2026 (residual value guarantee)", "Financial Times on Nvidia and insurers", "Reuters on Broadcom-Anthropic loan", "Reuters on lenders and Nvidia chip valuations", "Reuters on Anthropic IPO prospectus", "Reuters on Nebius price rises", "CoreWeave Sept 2026 contract pricing statement", "Nvidia Vera Rubin deliveries", "AMD Helios", "Google Gemini 4 Argon", "Fortune on OpenAI training pause"],
   "related_articles": ["compute-watch", "a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show"],
   "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
+},
+{
+  "id": "follow-the-money-both-ways",
+  "title": "Follow the Money Both Ways - Four Predictions for Anthropic's S-1",
+  "author": "Lida Liberopoulou",
+  "date": "2026-10-23",
+  "word_count": 1900,
+  "license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
+  "filename": "follow-the-money-both-ways.md",
+  "canonical_url": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/follow-the-money-both-ways.html",
+  "canonical_md": "https://threadbaire.com/blog/posts/follow-the-money-both-ways.md",
+  "arc_position": "Pre-registered disclosure test on Anthropic's S-1, filed before the public filing (first posted on X, 23 October 2026). Extends the A Tale of Two Earnings method from the hyperscalers' filings to the lab at the centre of their investments. First piece written in plain language for non-finance readers. Scored in Compute Watch No. 1.",
+  "core_claim": "The companies Anthropic owes the most to (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Broadcom on its chip leases) are also its investors or possible future owners, and the figures reported about its biggest deals measure different things, so they cannot be added up. Four predictions test whether the S-1 lets a reader follow the money: whether the use of proceeds is tied to signed computing commitments, whether Amazon or Alphabet appear in the related-party section, whether the Broadcom lease bills can be rebuilt to their total, and whether cash invested and payments committed can both be stated for each partner.",
+  "tags": ["Anthropic", "IPO", "S-1", "disclosure", "pre-registered prediction", "AI infrastructure financing", "compute commitments", "supplier-investors", "Broadcom", "Amazon", "Alphabet", "Microsoft"],
+  "evidence_sources": ["Broadcom Form 10-Q Sept 2026", "Broadcom/Apollo/Blackstone financing announcement June 2026", "Amazon Q2 2026 10-Q and earnings release", "Anthropic-Amazon compute agreement April 2026", "Microsoft/Nvidia/Anthropic partnership Nov 2025", "Reuters on Google investment April 2026", "Reuters on Anthropic's $518 billion commitments Sept 2026", "Reuters on Broadcom $42 billion facility Oct 2026", "Reuters on Anthropic Q3 revenue Oct 2026", "Reuters/WSJ on Anthropic first-half loss Oct 2026", "Financial Times on Project North Star Oct 2026", "Wall Street Journal on Anthropic revenue and IPO Oct 2026"],
+  "related_articles": ["a-tale-of-two-earnings-what-the-filings-cannot-show", "a-tale-of-two-earnings", "compute-watch"],
+  "related_dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/Threadbaire/compute-watch"
 }
 ]